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With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, investors are increasingly questioning when the cryptocurrency might finally establish its next bottom.  According to market expert and technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa, the current bear phase is unlikely to drag on for another full year. In his view, Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader uptrend before year-end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed?  In a recent analysis published on X, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows.  Accumulation, he explained, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume. Historically, this phase has lasted anywhere from two to four months. Related Reading: Can XRP Hold Above $1? Token Tumbles 11% as Breakdown Fuels Crash Concerns Looking back at previous cycles, Sherpa notes a fairly consistent rhythm. Bitcoin experienced a powerful rally in 2017 and again in 2021, each followed by a steep year-long decline in 2018 and 2022.  After those major drawdowns came an extended stretch of accumulation, as seen in 2019 and 2020. From the top in 2017 to the bottom in 2018, and similarly from 2021 to 2022, it took about one year for Bitcoin to complete its downward move.  Another common feature of past bear markets, he argues, has been a final capitulation event — a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the end of the downtrend.  Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If that interpretation is correct, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation. Accumulation Could Already Be Underway  Because the 2024 and 2025 rallies were structurally different, Sherpa believes the decline will also differ. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year from peak to bottom and saw drawdowns of approximately 85% and 75%, respectively, he does not expect the current downturn to mirror that pattern exactly. One reason, he says, is the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although ETF products can and do decline along with the broader market, they have changed the structure of capital flows.  He also points to the lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin traded for roughly eight months. From a technical analysis perspective, such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks.  Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Gives Back Gains, Support Level Under Spotlight As for timing, broader macroeconomic forces — including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and even developments in artificial intelligence — remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa does not think BTC needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom. If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide was indeed the final Bitcoin price capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, that phase has lasted between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days. However, he acknowledges one key risk to his outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another sell-off emerges — for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000— he would interpret that as the definitive bottoming event. In that scenario, accumulation would likely follow for several months. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has witnessed a deep plunge into the bearish territory recently. Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Now Most Bearish Since 2022 Bottom In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. This metric tells us, as its name suggests, about the market phase that the cryptocurrency is currently inside. The indicator is based on another CryptoQuant metric called the P&L Index, which combines the data of key on-chain indicators to build a single valuation index for Bitcoin. More specifically, the metrics that the P&L Index uses are the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. Related Reading: 46% Of Bitcoin Supply Now In Loss—What It Could Take For A Bottom The MVRV Ratio and NUPL both deal with unrealized network profits/losses, while the LTH/STH SOPR with profits/losses being realized by the investors through their transactions. According to CryptoQuant, the P&L Index’s interactions with its 365-day MA signal whether the asset is switching to a bull or bear market. Breaks above the MA indicate that the cryptocurrency is moving into a bullish regime, while falls below it can signal a bearish transition. The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tracks the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA to showcase whether the market is transitioning or if the metric is valued at an extreme. Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Maartunn that shows how its value has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator plunged into the region below zero during the last few months of 2025, suggesting that the P&L Index crossed below its 365-day MA. As mentioned earlier, such a crossover is a sign of a bearish shift. Since the indicator has gone into this zone, its value has only fallen deeper as the cryptocurrency has seen its negative price action. Following the most recent drop, the metric has hit low levels not seen since the 2022 bear market bottom that followed the FTX crash. The trend is an indication that the P&L Index is approaching an extreme point below the 365-day MA. In the past, market lows have generally been reached alongside such values on the index. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? That said, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has usually spent a bit of time in the “extreme bear” zone before the cryptocurrency has found a reversal. It now remains to be seen how long the metric will take this time around. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,000, down 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows almost half of all Bitcoin is currently underwater, representing overhead supply that might need to be absorbed before a price bottom. Around 9.31 Million Bitcoin Is Now Being Held At A Loss In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about why a true Bitcoin bottom takes time to form. To illustrate his point, Maartunn has shared a chart for the Bitcoin Supply In Loss, an indicator that measures, as its name suggest, the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s being held at a net unrealized loss. As is visible in the above graph, the Bticoin Supply In Loss shrunk down to zero as the asset set its new all-time high (ATH) back in October. Since then, however, the metric’s value has sharply expanded as the cryptocurrency has gone through its bearish reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? Today, the indicator is sitting at 9.31 million BTC, which is the highest that it has been since the 2022 bear market. In terms of supply percentage, this amount is equivalent to 46% of all tokens in circulation. Generally, holders in loss look forward to retests of their cost basis level so that they can exit with their capital back. Currently, there would be a significant amount of such investors. “A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit,” noted the analyst. Another on-chain indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) showcases which levels exactly the underwater hands bought their Bitcoin at. As displayed in the indicator’s chart, the Bitcoin loss supply is particularly clustered between the $80,000 to $95,000 and $105,000 to $120,000 ranges. Given the distance that the current BTC price has to these levels, it’s possible that traders who bought inside the ranges will stay underwater in the near future. Upward moves for the asset would naturally be met with selling pressure from these investors looking to cut their losses. “That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge,” explained Maartunn. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red During the previous bear market, the Bitcoin Supply In Loss dropped to even lower levels than now and the market observed a long phase of consolidation before this transfer of loss supply to more resolute hands could occur. It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will take to reach a floor this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement since its recovery from the $60,000 low as its price is still trading around $68,600. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price corrected gains and tested the $67,500 support. BTC is now recovering and might aim for an upside break above $69,500. Bitcoin is recovering losses and moving higher above $68,500. The price is trading above $68,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $69,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,000 and $67,400 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $70,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $69,000 support zone. There was a push below $68,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. However, the bulls remained active near the $67,400 zone. The price is again moving higher and gaining pace above $68,500. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,500 level. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $69,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $70,500 level. A close above the $70,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $71,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,200 and $72,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $69,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,000 level. The first major support is near the $67,400 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The next support is now near the $67,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $67,400. Major Resistance Levels – $69,500 and $70,000.

Bitcoin’s recent price decline has led to many traders betting on further downside, with on-chain data showing a notable increase in bearish positioning across major crypto exchanges. According to on-chain data from Santiment, aggregated funding rates have fallen into deep negative territory. This level of deep short positioning has not been seen with Bitcoin since August 2024, a period that ultimately established a major bottom before a powerful multi-month recovery. Bitcoin traders are now back to this level, and history shows that such extreme positioning can create the conditions for a rally. Funding Rates Show Bearish Positioning For Bitcoin Santiment’s “Funding Rates Aggregated By Exchange” metric blends funding data from multiple major exchanges to provide a good view of market sentiment and positioning pressure across the crypto industry. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” Funding rates are a mechanism used in perpetual futures markets where traders pay small fees to one another at regular intervals to keep contract prices aligned with spot prices. When funding rates are negative, short sellers are paying long traders. When they are positive, longs are paying shorts. The latest chart data from Santiment shows funding rates are now in negative territory, with red bars dominating the lower section of the chart. Funding rates are now less than -0.01%, which shows that a significant portion of derivatives traders are positioned for downside.  More often than not, funding rates are positive, as shown in the chart below. According to Santiment, the last time derivatives funding reached similarly extreme negative levels was in August 2024.  At that time, traders were shorting Bitcoin aggressively after a notable price crash. However, instead of continuing lower, the Bitcoin price action reversed sharply. Short liquidations helped contribute to an approximately 83% rally over the following four months as positions were forced to close. A similar setup occurred after Binance’s major liquidation event on October 10, 2025, when billions of dollars in long positions were wiped out. In the aftermath, traders turned sharply bearish and crowded into short positions. Extreme Shorting Can Lead To A Squeeze Extreme negative funding is a reflection of fear-based positioning. All that needs to happen for a short squeeze is for the Bitcoin price to push just a bit higher. Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 If the price unexpectedly moves higher, leveraged shorts begin accumulating losses at a fast pace. Once those losses cross liquidation thresholds, exchanges automatically close those positions. Traders must buy back Bitcoin to cover their positions, and this, in turn, creates upward pressure on the price. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,740, but the short-term cost basis is around $90,900. A strong push and close above $75,000 could lead to bullish momentum and draw in fresh inflows, increasing the chances of a short squeeze. However, heavy shorting alone does not guarantee an immediate rebound, though it does create a fragile environment where positioning pressure can quickly change to sharp upside volatility. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $70,000 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $68,800 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $69,500 and $69,200. The price is trading near $68,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $69,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,400 and $68,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $70,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $69,200 support zone. There was a push below $69,000. The price dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $69,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading near $68,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,500 level. A close above the $69,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $69,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,200 level. The first major support is near the $68,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The next support is now near the $67,350 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $67,350 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $66,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $66,500. Major Resistance Levels – $69,500 and $70,000.

The Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery attempts and lingering macro uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a transitional state, as it leaves euphoric expansion but is not yet fully in capitulation. Ultimately, current price action reflects a tug of war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. Nonetheless, on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency is likely to embark on more trips to the downside. CVDD: Bitcoin’s Compass to Cycle Lows Since 2012 In a recent post on the X platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has identified Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. According to the crypto pundit, the metric is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225. Related Reading: BNB Chain Expands With $1B Fund Access While BNB Price Nears Critical Support Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify major market bottoms by analyzing the behaviour of long-term holders. To understand CVDD,  one needs to recognize the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).  CDD is every Bitcoin accumulated that remains unmoved in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the cumulative historical value of destroyed coin days and adjusts it into a valuation model to produce a price level that historically aligns with the major Bitcoin cycle bottom. Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price bottoms with remarkable accuracy. The model essentially measures when older, long–held coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle tops and accumulate during deep bear phases. Is Bitcoin Sitting On A Hidden Safety Net? Over time, CVDD has acted as a floor beneath price during severe drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 sell-off, the Bitcoin price often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before staging long-term recoveries.  Currently, CVDD sits at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. It does not necessarily imply that price must fall to this level, but rather that it serves as a historically significant structural support if broader market conditions further deteriorate.  When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD,  it typically signals that the market remains in a healthier macro position. Meanwhile, when the Bitcoin price compresses towards it, sentiment often becomes pessimistic, and long-term accumulation tends to intensify. As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it might be helpful to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the $45,225 CVDD level. A decisive move toward it could signal deeper corrective pressure, while sustained strength above it reinforces the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact. As of this writing,  BTC is valued at around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of nearly 2% in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next?   Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

As the Bitcoin price tumbled in the past few weeks, several investors are increasingly building short positions against the premier cryptocurrency. A recent analysis predicted an impending short squeeze, as the funding rates plunged to new lows. According to the latest on-chain data, this short squeeze not only happened; it occurred at a rate not seen in years. $736M In Shorts Wiped Out Across All Exchanges In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that the Bitcoin market recently experienced the largest short liquidation event since September 2024. The relevant indicator here is the Short Liquidations USD metric, which tracks the total dollar value of short positions in Bitcoin that were forcibly closed (liquidated) by exchanges over a given period.  Related Reading: Solana Funding Rates Hit 17-Day Negative Streak — What This Means For Price According to Darkfost, this liquidation event comes second when compared to the $773 million in positions forcefully closed on September 20, 2024. As was earlier mentioned, this event was preceded by a period where there were significantly high amounts of sell positions (reflected by the deeply negative funding rates) on Binance and other exchanges. Typically, when a disproportionate amount of short positions is forcefully closed, this offsets what is referred to as a short squeeze. During a short squeeze, sell-side liquidity is converted, by liquidation dynamics, to jet fuel for upward price movement.  Darkfost further explained that the derivatives market is currently heavy with speculative positioning, while the spot market, on the other hand, continues to struggle with thin liquidity. This imbalance creates a fragile market environment, where aggressive shorts can amplify upside volatility if squeezed. However, it is worth noting that in the scenario where there is sustained scarcity of demand, the current upside rally sponsored by the short squeeze may also not be sustained. Hence, until the spot market starts to see a significant demand that aligns with the present conditions, Bitcoin is best described as being in an uncertain phase.  Bitcoin Market Overview  At the time of writing, the price of BTC sits at around $69,878, reflecting a 1.5% leap in the past day. On the weekly timeframe, the flagship cryptocurrency seems to have barely moved, recording a slight upward growth of about 0.7%. Meanwhile, the premier cryptocurrency continues to drift further away from its record-high of $126,080, now 45% deep in the red. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bounce Back? Top Analyst Breaks Down Prior Major Corrections Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is hovering near key liquidity zones after a week of downward momentum, and traders are now eyeing untapped areas around $64,000. With price action showing potential short-term swings and H1 support under close watch, the next move could hinge on whether Bitcoin tests this low or reclaims higher levels first. Weekend Range Sets The Stage For Next Week’s Moves After a week of downward momentum, Bitcoin has stepped into a key liquidity area. According to Lennaert Snyder, the market is currently forming a range, which could provide clear trading opportunities in the coming week. While weekend trading isn’t his focus, observing the price action now helps plan next week’s approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Structure May Be Changing — This Metric Explains Why Liquidity is concentrated around the $71,422 range high, and the reaction to a retest of this zone will be important. Testing the range high could trigger short positions if the bearish market structure break (MSB) holds, or offer long opportunities if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the area. On the lower side, the $64,500 low and all liquidity beneath it remain largely untouched, making this a critical zone to monitor. When the market reaches these levels, traders will be watching for either high-probability reversals for long entries or continuation shorts if the support fails. The interplay between the range high at ~$71,422 and the lows around $64,500 will likely dictate the next significant swings, offering strategic opportunities for those tracking both sides of the market. Bitcoin Eyes Short-Term Breakout Before Possible Pullback BTC is showing short-term activity that suggests a minor push higher before resuming lower moves. Crypto analyst Scient highlighted that the H1 support/resistance level at $68,000, which was rejected two days ago, has now been broken and flipped, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop From the current setup, a new bearish channel is beginning to form. As part of this structure, Bitcoin is likely to sweep liquidity in the near term before heading lower. Observing these smaller intraday moves can provide traders with clues about how the market intends to reach its next major zones. Key levels to watch include the premium zone high at $72,200 and the untapped stacked liquidity above it, sitting between $73,000 and $74,000. These areas could attract buyers temporarily, creating a minor push toward the $73,000 region before the broader downtrend resumes. Traders should monitor price behavior closely when approaching these levels. On the downside, the H1 support at $68,000 remains critical. A clean break below this zone could accelerate the drop earlier than expected, confirming the bearish channel. Maintaining awareness of both the short-term push higher and this key support will help identify high-probability setups in the immediate timeframe. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the past week, the Bitcoin price kept on putting in consecutive lows, with barely any hopes in sight for a bullish reversal. However, on Friday, February 13th, the flagship cryptocurrency saw an upward momentum boost, where its value subsequently grew by 5.4%.  While this may have been good for short-term traders (specifically scalpers), a troubling future seems to be lying in wait for the premier cryptocurrency. This bearish prognosis is based on a recent technical evaluation of the Bitcoin price. SuperTrend Indicator Flashes Sell Sign On BTC Monthly Timeframe  In a 14 February post on social media platform X, influential technical analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin market could soon experience a significant macro trend shift. This hypothesis is based on the SuperTrend Indicator, which is a technical tool that indicates whether an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) is in an uptrend or in a downtrend. Related Reading: Solana Reclaims $80 Amid Friday Market Bounce – Analysts Set Next Targets This indicator plots a trailing level that acts as dynamic support when the price is in an uptrend, or resistance when in a downtrend. When the price is above the SuperTrend line, the market is considered to be in an uptrend; while when the price is below the line, on the other hand, it indicates that the market is in a downtrend. When a candle closes decisively beneath the dynamic trend line when previously in an uptrend, it indicates that the market has now flipped bearish, and vice versa. Interestingly, on the monthly timeframe, the candle now trades beneath the SuperTrend line, indicating that the market may be leaning bearish.  Interestingly, the current setup shares semblance with past cycle transitions. From the chart shared by the analyst, it is clear that Bitcoin’s macro structure has gone through a series of expansions and deep retracements. These retracements were also properly illustrated on the indicator in their early stages. Before the late 2014-2015, the 2018, and the 2022 bear markets, the SuperTrend Indicator flashed a sell signal, after which the market entered a bearish phase. Considering the sell signal was seen on Bitcoin’s monthly chart, this could be a sign that the retracement here might be long-term, as expected in a typical bear market. However, it is worth noting that the present market dynamics are very different from previous cycles, as institutions are more involved and ETFs have expanded investor horizons. Hence, these underlying changes might play a role in the present cycle. If the sell signal from the SuperTrend indicator aligns with on-chain activity and macro events, and Bitcoin manages to close beneath the SuperTrend line, a bear market would likely follow, one where Bitcoin’s devaluation by at least 60% may be seen.  On the other hand, if new demand enters the Bitcoin market, and the flagship cryptocurrency demonstrates resilience, the current signal could become a short-term warning, rather than a bear-market signal.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $68,984, reflecting a 4.5% price jump in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shrunk in value by approximately 29% on the monthly timeframe. Related Reading: JPMorgan Keeps Bitcoin Bull Case: $266,000 Remains The Target Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After a dour performance throughout the week, the price of Bitcoin experienced a fair amount of bullish impetus on Friday, February 13th. Going into the weekend, the premier cryptocurrency seemed on its way to reclaim the psychologically relevant $70,000 level. Interestingly, recent on-chain data shows that this latest bullish spurt might be the start of, at least, a short-term rally for the Bitcoin price. Is Bitcoin On The Verge Of A Short Squeeze? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has dropped to a critically low level — one not seen in over a year. The relevant indicator here is the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of BTC Funding Rate.  Related Reading: Ethereum Derivatives Reset Raises Questions About Next Price Move: What Happens Next? Typically, the Funding Rate metric estimates the periodic fee paid by traders in a derivatives market for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case). When the funding rate is in the positive territory, it usually implies that the long traders (investors with buy positions) are paying a fee to short traders (investors with sell positions) in the derivatives market.  On the flip side, a negative funding rate metric, as is the case currently, suggests that the payment is going from the short traders to the long traders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the 14-day SMA of the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance has fallen to -0.002, its lowest level since September 2024. As CryptoOnchain rightly noted, a deeply negative funding rate, especially one that lasts over a 14-day average, indicates that bears (short traders) are increasingly betting against the premier cryptocurrency. The market analyst noted that these extremely negative values often correlate with the bottom of severe downward trends. CryptoOnchain wrote in the post: From an on-chain and market psychology perspective, deeply negative funding rates often serve as a strong Contrarian Signal. The market currently appears to be heavily “overcrowded” on the short side. From a historical perspective, this on-chain trend has often set the stage for a potent short squeeze, where a minor price rebound could trigger a cascade of liquidations of the mounting short positions. This cascade of short liquidations often serves as jet fuel, further propelling the Bitcoin price to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $69,000, reflecting an over 5% jump in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Historical Pattern From 2017 Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $35,000 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues.  No Systemic Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends.  In situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the crypto industry.  Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level.  Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem and FTX’s bankruptcy.  It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers.  The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to $3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock.  Bitcoin rebounded quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained speculative energy from the market.  Active addresses declined by 70%, and miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years to revisit its previous peak.  Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses exceeding 80% have required three years or longer.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation.  Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term resistance wall at $70,000.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has plunged recently. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin NUPL Has Dropped To The 0.18 Level In a new post on X, o-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, which is an indicator that compares the amount of unrealized profit and loss held by investors on the BTC blockchain. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token on the network to find the price at which they were last involved in a transfer. If this previous selling price is greater than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is assumed to be carrying some net unrealized profit. Similarly, the cost basis being lower implies the token is underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red The exact amount of profit/loss held by a coin is equal to the difference between the two prices. The NUPL sums up this value for each category and then subtracts it to determine the net situation for the network. Additionally, it also divides the result by the market cap to showcase how the net profit/loss among investors looks relative to the asset’s total valuation. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up above the 0.5 level during the rallies in 2024 and 2025. This suggests that investors were carrying net profits more than half as much as the cryptocurrency’s market cap. These phases of euphoria were followed by price declines that took the metric into the zone between 0.25 and 0.5. BTC managed to recover from the first two of these drops, but the latest one has been followed by an extended phase of downtrend. From the chart, it’s visible that this bearish action has taken the cryptocurrency to a value of 0.18. This level indicates that profits are still dominant on the network, but they are much thinner than before. The level lies inside a region that the analytics firm defines as pertaining to “hope/fear” among the investors. “This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades,” explained the analytics firm. The last time that the Bitcoin NUPL saw a substantial drawdown into the region was during the 2022 bear market. Back then, the cryptocurrency ended up traveling right through the zone and into the extreme fear area below the zero level, corresponding to net losses being held by the majority of investors. Related Reading: Shiba Inu At Risk of 70% Decline? Price Breaks Below Parallel Channel It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will stay in the region for this time around and which one will follow next. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped toward $65,000 on Thursday, but the asset has kicked back up to $69,000 on Friday. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have long been shaped by shifting liquidity, investor behavior, and macroeconomic forces, but identifying true structural changes has often proved challenging. Currently, a high-precision metric is emerging as a clear signal for detecting when BTC’s market dynamics are fundamentally shifting rather than simply experiencing short-term volatility. As BTC matures as a global asset, tools like this are helping investors move beyond speculation and toward data-driven insights that reveal the network’s true direction. What This Metric Signal Has Marked In Every Bitcoin Previous Cycle The Bitcoin Realized Cap impulse is one of the most precise metrics that has ever been created to identify true structural change in BTC. Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, revealed on X that when the Realized Cap impulse long-term turns negative, it signals that the market uncertainty has entered a fear-driven phase defined by capital flow, not sentiment.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Deeper Into Correction With Spot Demand Drying Up – What To Know The metric signals a critical imbalance that, even as BTC ETFs accumulate and large institutions like MicroStrategy continue to add to their positions, incoming capital is still not enough to absorb the period when supply exceeds demand. BTC is fundamentally driven by supply absorption, and if incoming capital can not absorb the supply exiting circulation or remaining inactive, the result will be structural weakness in price. However, reversing this scenario would require a significantly higher level of accumulation, which is several times greater than the current pace, allowing for structural metrics indicators like the Realized Cap impulse to consistently turn upward again. This is the part that few investors understand.  Wedson noted that long-term holders and the true OGs are the original participants who are controlling a large share of BTC’s supply. Historically, their behavior has defined every major market cycle. This metric does not track narratives; instead, it measures who is truly in control. Why The Current Environment Limits Bitcoin Short-Term Upside The clearest way to understand the broader environment in which Bitcoin is evolving today is by examining the Bitcoin Z-Score heatmap. Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted that this examination would bring together several core factors influencing the BTC price action into a single framework and offer a high-level view of the market’s overall on-chain health. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped In Bear Market Woes As Liquidity Runs Dry, Is Another Crash Coming? According to Darkfost, this heatmap aggregates key indicators data tied to demand, liquidity, and BTC valuation levels, effectively summarizing whether the market structure is improving or deteriorating. However, all of these indicators remain firmly in the red, signaling that the underlying environment of BTC has not yet shifted toward recovery. As long as these indicators continue to reflect weak demand and constrained liquidity, the structural backdrop for BTC will be unable to reach new highs in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Some key on-chain indicators are flashing a red signal for Bitcoin, suggesting bearish market conditions for the number one cryptocurrency. Major On-Chain Indicators Are In Red Zone For Bitcoin In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about what on-chain indicators are suggesting for the current Bitcoin market. The analyst has shared a heatmap that shows the signals 10 metrics related to the cryptocurrency are flashing right now. The indicators in the graph are all key on-chain metrics covering different dimensions of the network. For example, the MVRV Z-Score deals with general investor profitability, while the Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin specifically track the profit-loss status of the short-term holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop All the indicators in the heatmap are currently giving a red signal, implying conditions aren’t favorable for a bull market. “As long as that remains the case, it is hard to imagine BTC reaching new highs in the short term,” noted Darkfrost. Red has spread on the heatmap as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its bearish price action. A couple of metrics, however, have been bearish since even before the market downturn. The indicators in question are the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and CryptoQuant Network Activity Index. The former of these tracks the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. This metric being bearish means that there is a lack of speculative push in the market. From the chart, it’s visible that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse went red during the drawdown phase from the first half of 2025 and has remained so since then. The CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, gauging the transaction activity occurring on the Bitcoin blockchain, left the bull territory in late 2024. Activity on the network has since mostly maintained at bearish levels, except for a few brief flashes. Most of the other metrics didn’t turn red until the November 2025 price decline. The last metric to go red was the Trader On-Chain Profit Margin, which was green during the January recovery rally, but gave the bear signal after the most recent price plunge. In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders have shown signs of loss-taking recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post. The short-term holder cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins during the past 155 days. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% As the below chart shows, these holders have ramped up their loss deposits to exchanges recently. Investors usually transfer their tokens to centralized exchanges when they want to participate in selling, so these loss deposits can be a sign that some short-term holders are capitulating. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,300, down more than 2% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Standard Chartered lowered its long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the second time in less than three months as the cryptocurrency market appears to have entered a new bearish cycle. With the leading cryptocurrency currently consolidating below the key $70,000 level, the bank now warns that the asset could fall as low as $50,000 before staging a recovery. Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Target to $100,000 In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.  The latest figure marks a significant reduction from its previous $150,000 projection for BTC. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from an ambitious $300,000. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup According to Bloomberg’s report on the matter, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior, especially over the past month’s downtrend. The leading cryptocurrency has declined more than 40% from its October peak toward current trading prices of around $67,160, while the US spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) sector has seen nearly $8 billion in net outflows.  Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have weighed heavily on digital assets. In particular, declining ETF holdings have removed what had been a critical source of demand during previous rallies. The interest‑rate environment remains a central concern. Markets have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously thought.  Kendrick also pointed to uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to Bitcoin caution. The bank warned that deteriorating macro conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term. Ethereum Could Drop To $1,400 Despite the more conservative Bitcoin forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous crypto market collapses.  Kendrick highlighted that on‑chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy.  Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Moreover, the bank’s head of research highlighted that the market has not experienced the type of high‑profile platform failures that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion. The bank also revised its outlook for Ethereum (ETH). Its 2026 price target for the second‑largest cryptocurrency was reduced to $4,000 from $7,500. Before reaching that level, analysts expect Ether could fall to around $1,400.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is once again facing notable selling pressure. The market confronts a challenging phase marked by weakening momentum and cautious investor positioning. Recent price action suggests that bullish conviction has softened. Traders are increasingly attentive to liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and shifting market sentiment. While volatility is not unusual at this stage of the cycle, the current environment reflects a market searching for direction rather than sustaining a clear upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses Hit Luna Crash Levels — But Price Context Points To A Different Market Phase A recent CryptoQuant report provides additional context through Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite metric that integrates valuation, profitability, spending behavior, and sentiment indicators. According to the analysis, BCMI has fallen into the low 0.2 range, a level historically associated more with early bear market phases — such as those seen in 2018 and 2022 — rather than routine mid-cycle corrections. This shift suggests a deeper structural adjustment may be underway. Notably, BCMI was hovering near 0.5 as recently as October, a zone typically interpreted as market equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. The subsequent decline indicates that this balance has broken down. Whether this signals the start of a prolonged bearish phase or a temporary reset will likely depend on future liquidity conditions, investor demand, and broader macroeconomic developments. BCMI Breakdown Points To Structural Weakness In Bitcoin Market The CryptoQuant report highlights a notable deterioration in Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), suggesting a shift away from mid-cycle consolidation toward a more defensive market regime. According to the analysis, the mid-cycle equilibrium around the 0.5 level failed to hold, with no meaningful rebound emerging from the 0.3 zone. Instead, the index continued declining directly toward the low 0.2 range without the type of expansion reset typically seen during healthier corrective phases. This pattern differs from past mid-cycle cooling periods and increasingly resembles a transition into a risk-off market environment. Historical comparisons provide additional perspective. Previous cycle bottoms generally formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, notably during 2019 and again in the 2022–2023 bear phase. Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, implying that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish structural framework, full capitulation conditions have not yet materialized. Because BCMI aggregates valuation metrics such as MVRV, profitability indicators like NUPL, spending behavior via SOPR, and broader sentiment measures, its decline into the low 0.2 range reflects shrinking unrealized profits, rising realized losses, deteriorating sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. Unless the index stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4–0.5 zone, the probability of continued structural weakness remains elevated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support After Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects increasing structural pressure following the recent loss of the $70,000 level, a key psychological and technical threshold that had previously acted as support. Price has now retreated toward the mid-$60,000 range, placing BTC below shorter-term trend averages and signaling weakening bullish momentum. This shift suggests the market is transitioning from consolidation toward a more defensive phase. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs since the late-cycle peak near the $120,000 region. A pattern often associated with corrective or transitional market environments. Recent declines have been accompanied by elevated trading volume. Typically indicative of distribution or forced deleveraging rather than gradual profit-taking. Such dynamics often increase volatility while complicating sustained recovery attempts. Related Reading: Long-Term Ethereum Holders Expand Positions While Market Faces Pressure: Rare Signal Emerges From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone emerges as a critical support area. This region aligns with prior consolidation phases and high-liquidity trading zones that historically attracted demand. Holding above this level could allow Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially form a base for sideways consolidation. However, a decisive breakdown would raise the probability of deeper retracement scenarios. Bitcoin’s direction remains closely tied to liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and broader macro sentiment influencing risk assets. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,800 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $67,500 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $68,000 and $67,500. The price is trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,000 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $68,800 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $68,000 support zone. There was a push below $67,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,255 high. The bears even pushed the price below $65,500. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,500 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $68,000 level. A close above the $68,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,255 high. The next support is now near the $62,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $61,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $60,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $67,500 and $68,000.

The Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 has sparked debate across the crypto market, but recent analysis from BitQuant’s market experts explains why this move was inevitable and necessary. According to the firm, BTC’s sharp decline is not the result of widespread panic or manipulation but rather a natural development in its market structure. The firm explained that the recent local top, which exceeded $126,000, fell short of the expectations needed for healthy growth in the Bitcoin price.  Early Top And Market Liquidation Disrupted Bitcoin Price Structure  In a lengthy post on X, BitQuant reported that its local top for Bitcoin was initially set at $145,000, but this was never reached, leaving the cryptocurrency above $126,000 earlier in October 2025. According to the firm, this earlier-than-expected peak caused a structural failure that prevented the Bitcoin market from building a solid foundation for continued price gains.  Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 On October 10, during the devastating liquidation event, BitQuant noted that a technical issue at Binance had triggered a sudden drop in BTC, from approximately $120,000 to $105,000, adding volatility to its already fragile setup. While some may interpret this Binance issue as manipulation, the crypto company stressed that such events are common in markets, especially in Bitcoin markets. The firm also added that the liquidation and technical error were not significant enough to justify the entire downside that followed.  BitQuant highlighted that the key point is that Bitcoin’s early price top disrupted its natural cycle of distribution and correction, which normally would have allowed its price to consolidate before attempting higher levels. Without a strong base, the market could not sustain strong bullish momentum, creating the bearish conditions that fueled BTC’s retracement toward the $60,000- $62,000 region. In a clean, structural scenario, the company stated that Bitcoin should have reached $145,000, distributed there, experienced a correction of about 25-30%, and then built a strong base before the next price expansion.  New Structure Sets Stage For Future Expansion Although BitQuant has highlighted flaws in Bitcoin’s current market structure, the firm stated that the cryptocurrency has already established a new setup following its decline toward $60,000. The company noted that this updated price structure now supports a continuation toward BTC’s next expansion phase.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin A Better Investment Than Gold? Finance Expert Shares Deep Insights BitQuant further clarified that this is not the start of a new market cycle, but rather a continuation of the cycle that began around $16,000. The firm emphasized that the market’s performance and success in the coming months will depend on whether traders and investors view the next move as a new cycle or a progression of the current one. Although Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 shook the market, the cryptocurrency has since recovered slightly and is trading back above $67,000 at the time of writing. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown  Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market.  Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions.  He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions.  According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating.  Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price structure is showing signs of strain, and new data from CryptoQuant shows that fresh capital is no longer entering the market. Instead of the recent drawdown acting as an attraction for buyers, it appears to be triggering withdrawals. This change in liquidity behavior is important, as it indicates that Bitcoin may be transitioning into deeper bear market conditions. Notably, on-chain metrics tracking new liquidity flows are revealing negative cumulative inflows over the past month. Selling Pressure Builds, New Investor Inflows Flip Negative According to a recent analysis that was done on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative new investor flow has dropped to approximately $2.6 billion.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin And The Best Time To Sell This metric was revealed from CryptoQuant’s ‘Bitcoin New Investor Flow’ data, which is revealing that more capital is leaving the ecosystem than entering it. The data shows that the ongoing dip is failing to attract meaningful participation from new buyers. Interestingly, the current reading of this metric is displaying a huge contrast between previous bull phases and current conditions. Large spikes in new money, visible in blue in the chart below, accompanied strong price rallies, particularly in 2017, 2021, and again during the 2024-2025 bull market. Those inflow surges coincided with powerful upside momentum in terms of price action. At present, those spikes are notably absent. Instead, the lower section of the chart is displaying growing red readings due to net capital outflows. The latest print is below zero, which shows that sell-offs are not being absorbed by fresh liquidity. This dynamic matters because markets rely on marginal buyers to sustain higher prices. When new participants step back, price action becomes vulnerable to deeper pullbacks. That is why there is a need for new buyers to absorb the selloffs. Low Liquidity Raises Crash Risks Although liquidity contraction does not automatically guarantee another major crash, it increases fragility of price action. Bitcoin, for one, is still trading below $70,000, although bulls have largely prevented further breakdowns below $60,000. This, in turn, has kept the Bitcoin price trading in a range around $70,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Caught Between Two Liquidity Traps — Which Side Breaks First? However, many crypto analysts are of the notion that Bitcoin could still crash further to lower price levels. Calls for a deeper correction are circulating across trading platforms and social media, with projected bottoms stretching from around $55,000 to as low as $30,000. The absence of inflow spikes suggests that Bitcoin may struggle to regain momentum in the near term. If liquidity continues to dry up, the probability of another significant leg lower before a rebound increases. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $67,160, reflecting a modest 0.3% gain over the past 24 hours. This price behavior is unfolding alongside a slowdown in mining activity due to miners shutting down their systems, which led to the largest mining difficulty drop since 2021. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe.  In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends.  However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.”  This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation.  He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking.  By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency.  In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory.  Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.  Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold.  He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the social media sentiment around Bitcoin has remained deeply bearish despite the recovery that the cryptocurrency’s price has made. Social Media Data Suggests Retail Still Fearful About Bitcoin In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has discussed about how the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin has developed on social media following the recent recovery surge in the asset’s price. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% The Positive/Negative Sentiment refers to an indicator that tells us, as its name suggests, how the positive and negative sentiments related to a given asset compare on the major social media platforms. The metric works by putting social media posts/threads/messages containing mentions of the asset through a machine-learning model to differentiate between positive and negative comments. Then, it counts up the number of posts in each category and finds their ratio. When the value of the indicator is greater than 1, it means the asset is observing more bullish messages than bearish ones. On the other hand, the metric being under this threshold implies the dominance of a negative sentiment. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the last few months: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment rose to a notable level when the asset saw its rally in January. This suggests that retail traders on social media became greedy. What eventually followed the market greed was a top in the cryptocurrency and a reversal to the downside. As this drawdown took BTC back to the $60,000 level, the Positive/Negative Sentiment plummeted, meaning that fear now dominated social media platforms. Just like how the greedy sentiment led into a top, this bearish mentality paved way for a rebound instead. This is a pattern that has been witnessed with digital asset markets time and time again, with prices tending to move against the expectations of the crowd. Interestingly, even though BTC has climbed back into the high $60,000 levels since its low, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has continued to be at low levels. “Historically, while FUD is high, price rebounds have a heightened probability,” noted the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin will develop in the near future, given the current bearish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Giant Awakens: 2,043 BTC Moved After 7-Year Slumber In some other news, the stablecoin market cap has dipped recently, as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has highlighted in an X post. Edwards has pointed out that the stablecoin market cap has historically only fallen in bear markets. If the recent trajectory of the combined USDT and USDC market cap is to go by, capital may once again be leaving this side of the sector. BTC Price Bitcoin recovered above $70,000 earlier, but the coin has since retraced a bit as its price is now trading around $67,700. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure after losing the key $70,000 level, a breakdown that has pushed the market into a more defensive phase. The inability to hold this psychological support has weighed on sentiment. With traders increasingly cautious as volatility rises and liquidity conditions remain uncertain. Price action near the mid-$60,000 range now represents a critical zone where market participants are assessing whether the current move is a deeper correction or simply another consolidation phase within the broader cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K On-chain data highlighted by analyst Axel Adler adds important context to the recent decline. According to his analysis, realized losses across the Bitcoin network have surged to levels comparable to those seen during the June 2022 Luna and UST crash. At first glance, this suggests significant stress and widespread capitulation among investors. However, the price backdrop is markedly different this time. Whereas the 2022 losses occurred when Bitcoin traded near $19,000, the current wave of loss realization is unfolding around $67,000. This distinction materially changes how the signal is interpreted. Rather than pointing to systemic market collapse, the data may reflect the flushing out of late-cycle buyers and leveraged positions, leaving Bitcoin at a pivotal stage where demand strength will determine the next directional move. Extreme Realized Losses Signal Capitulation, Not Structural Breakdown Axel Adler’s latest on-chain assessment highlights a sharp deterioration in Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss dynamics. The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss 7-day moving average recently dropped to around -$1.99 billion, signaling large-scale loss-taking comparable to conditions seen during the June 2022 Luna-driven market shock. This metric tracks the balance between realized profits and losses from coins moving on-chain, offering a smoothed view of investor behavior over time. Although the indicator slightly recovered to roughly -$1.73 billion in the following days, it still represents the second-deepest negative reading on record. Net losses have remained below -$1.7 billion for several consecutive sessions. This indicates persistent seller pressure and ongoing capitulation among investors who entered the market at higher prices. Historically, a sustained return above zero has marked transitions back to profit-dominant market phases. Bitcoin Realized Loss has climbed to approximately $2.3 billion on a 7-day basis, a level comparable to peak stress during the 2022 crash. However, the broader context differs significantly. Similar loss volumes are now occurring near $67,000 rather than $19,000, suggesting a cyclical flush of late bull-market entrants rather than systemic market failure or structural network deterioration. Related Reading: Ethereum Holders Shift To Self-Custody As Market Consolidates Near $2K Bitcoin Breakdown Extends As Momentum Remains Bearish Bitcoin’s daily chart reflects sustained downside pressure after the decisive loss of the $70,000 level. The price is now hovering in the mid-$60,000 range following a sharp decline. The move confirms a clear shift in short-term market structure, characterized by lower highs, accelerating selloffs, and repeated failures to reclaim former support zones. This pattern typically signals weakening bullish momentum and increasing caution among market participants. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below key moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance rather than support. The inability to recover these levels suggests that sellers continue to dominate short-term price action. Recent spikes in trading volume during the drop reinforce the idea of forced deleveraging and defensive positioning rather than orderly rotation or accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Crash Below $2,000 Triggers Record Token Movement: Hinting At Capitulation The $60,000–$62,000 region emerges as the next critical support area. Aligning with prior consolidation zones and historical liquidity clusters. Holding this range would help stabilize sentiment and potentially enable consolidation. A break below it, however, could open the door to deeper retracement scenarios. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $70,000 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $68,800 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $68,800 and $68,000. The price is trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $70,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $68,800 support zone. There was a push below $68,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,256 high. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,200 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $69,000 level. A close above the $69,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $69,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $66,000 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,256 high. The next support is now near the $63,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $61,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $69,000 and $70,000.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has once again declared his support for Bitcoin, this time making a direct comparison between the digital asset and gold. In a recent post on social media, the New York Times bestselling author said that if he were forced to choose between the two, he would select Bitcoin over gold, citing the cryptocurrency’s actual design as the deciding factor. His comments quickly led to reactions from his followers, not only because of the comparison but also due to his own recent activity in the crypto market. Bitcoin Is A Better Investment Than Gold According to Kiyosaki, investing in Bitcoin is a much better decision than buying gold, and this is mostly due to the supply dynamics of the two assets. On a surface level, Kiyosaki noted that it would be obviously better to invest in both gold and Bitcoin, while also adding silver for diversification of assets. However, if he had to choose only one asset, he would choose Bitcoin. Related Reading: Contrary To Popular Belief, This Is Not The Worst Bitcoin Crash In History – Here’s The List Kiyosaki’s view on Bitcoin as a better investment is based on its hard supply cap of 21 million coins. Unlike gold, whose total reserves are uncertain and expandable through technological advancements and exploration, Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is mathematically predetermined. The protocol behind BTC makes sure that no more than 21 million coins will ever exist. As of now, over 19 million coins have already been mined, which means the network is close to its maximum supply threshold. According to Kiyosaki, this design is brilliant, and that means the price of Bitcoin should only go up. Based on Kiyosaki’s perspective, engineered scarcity gives Bitcoin a structural advantage over gold. If demand is growing while supply remains fixed, basic economic theory implies upward price pressure over the long term. “Glad I bought my Bitcoin early,” Kiyosaki said. From Selling BTC To Defending His Early Entry Claims Robert Kiyosaki rose to prominence with his 1997 bestselling book on personal finance called Rich Dad Poor Dad, which eventually rolled over into a series of personal finance books. Over the years, he has broadened his commentary to include real estate, precious metals, commodities, and, more recently, cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak In late 2025, Kiyosaki disclosed that he had sold a portion of his Bitcoin holdings. The disclosure came in November, around the time the price of Bitcoin fell below $90,000. According to him, he sold roughly $2.25 million worth of Bitcoin, explaining that the coins had originally been acquired years earlier at about $6,000 each. Speaking of buying Bitcoin at $6,000, Kiyosaki is claiming he stopped buying Bitcoin at $6,000. However, he has faced backlash for this claim. Recent community notes show Kiyosaki said on January 23, 2026, that he was continuously buying Bitcoin, alongside other assets like gold, silver, and Ethereum.  Nonetheless, the gold-versus-Bitcoin discussion among investors is unlikely to stop anytime soon. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP and Bitcoin (BTC) were pitted against each other in a recent analysis, with market expert X Finance Bull revealing what early investors could have gained if they had invested $500 into both XRP and BTC in 2014. The analysis compares the performance of both cryptocurrencies over the years, highlighting the factors behind XRP’s growth and sustained momentum. What $500 In Bitcoin And XRP in 2014 Is Worth Today A new analysis by X Finance Bull reveals the dramatic growth potential of early investments in Bitcoin and XRP. According to the report, a $500 investment in XRP at the 2014 lows would be worth approximately $255,000 today. He compares XRP’s gains with those of Bitcoin, noting that if investors had bet the same amount in BTC in 2014, their investments would have grown to around $133,000.  Related Reading: Analysts At Leading Wealth Manager Predict Bitcoin’s 2026 Price, And It’s Very Bullish These figures suggest that XRP outperformed Bitcoin by more than twice over the same period, delivering a 511-fold return, compared to BTC’s 266-fold gain. During that time, XRP’s performance benefited not only from early, steady adoption and speculative interest but also from the continued development of its underlying payment system.  Over the years, XRP has moved beyond a purely speculative asset, gaining more traction as it evolves into a potential global settlement layer. Sharing similar sentiments, X Finance Bull highlighted how XRP’s infrastructure developments have significantly supported its significant price growth today. He noted that the cryptocurrency has seen major progress in areas such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), banking licenses, and enterprise-level adoption.  Notably, XRP Spot ETFs officially launched in November 2025, attracting massive inflows that have significantly boosted demand for XRP among institutional investors. In addition, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has conditionally approved Ripple’s application to establish a national trust bank charter. All of these developments have contributed to XRP’s price growth over the past few months.  Investors Reap Rewards For Holding XRP Through Volatility  In his post, X Finance Bull suggested that investors who held onto their XRP positions through the volatile years “know why they held.” Following the cryptocurrency’s dramatic rally above $3, many investors reaped the rewards of staying invested from its lows and trusting in its potential for future price appreciation.  Related Reading: XRP’s 1,500% Path To $24: Analyst Warns Investors To Be Prepared For When The Correction Resolves From 2018 to 2025, XRP struggled with a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). During those years of legal turmoil, many investors continued to hold onto their XRP despite the uncertainty and price stagnancy.  Following Ripple’s legal win, XRP surpassed $3 in 2025, marking its first break above that level since 2018. Compared to XRP, Bitcoin has also experienced significant growth in the past few years. After crossing the $100,000 threshold in 2024, BTC continued its surge into 2025, finally hitting a peak above $126,000 in October. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price is often framed as the result of one dominant factor, whether it’s the halving cycle, macro liquidity, or speculative demand, and this view misses the deeper reality of how the asset actually trades. BTC exists within a complex economic environment where multiple forces act simultaneously, each influencing price in different ways. When Bitcoin Cycles And Macro Cycles Overlap Multiple interacting processes shape Bitcoin and the broader business cycle, and the dynamics are more complex than a single narrative. Crypto analyst Giovanni has highlighted on X that the FOMO halving narrative had heavily driven the early BTC cycle, and the social feedback loop matters. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also exhibited a 4-year periodicity, and this does not mean the BTC halving cycle was irrelevant. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO These two cycles are interacting, and that interaction is precisely what needs to be quantified and understood, rather than dismissed with hand-waving explanations. Giovanni emphasized that the halving cycle is still real for miners and never disappeared. Block rewards are reduced on a fixed schedule, and that mechanical change directly impacts miner economics. By extension, these effects propagate into the broader BTC economy in one form or another. The explanation is not credible if the pendulum swings from “the 4-year cycle is an illusion” to “the 4-year cycle halving cycle explains everything.” Replacing one oversimplified story with another doesn’t improve understanding; it just shifts the blind spot. There are solid mathematical tools designed to study cycle coupling, phase alignment, and interaction effects. Giovanni argues that applying these tools is the right path, and doing so is unlikely to produce a new simple narrative. What will likely emerge is a richer structure, where internal and external cycles interact in nontrivial ways. How The Model Estimates Up And Down Outcomes An analyst known as The Smart Ape pointed out on X about developing a theoretical probability model to estimate Bitcoin’s up and down price outcomes in the 15-minute markets on Polymarket. The model is intentionally simple, calculating probabilities by using the target price, the current BTC price, and the remaining before the market round closes. What stood out most was how closely the theoretical outputs matched real market probabilities. The difference between the market prices and model probabilities was consistently within a narrow 1-5% range,  suggesting that the model tracks actual market behaviour with remarkable accuracy. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders, which clearly shows how bot-dominated these markets are and are driven by logical rules and algorithms. The Smart Ape argues that if the market were primarily driven by human traders, real probabilities wouldn’t align this tightly with a theoretical model. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor, the outspoken Bitcoin (BTC) advocate and Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) co-founder, said on Tuesday that the company remains firmly committed to its long‑standing Bitcoin strategy, despite growing concerns about its financial risks. Strategy Will Buy Bitcoin Every Quarter Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Saylor said Strategy plans to continue buying Bitcoin on a regular basis, regardless of price swings or skepticism from market observers.  He said the company intends to add to its Bitcoin holdings every quarter and has no plans to reverse course. “I expect we’ll be buying bitcoin every quarter forever,” Saylor said. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Addressing concerns about the company’s debt load, Saylor was dismissive of the idea that a prolonged Bitcoin downturn could threaten Strategy’s finances.  He said that even in a severe scenario, the company would manage its obligations through refinancing. “If Bitcoin falls 90% for the next four years, we’ll refinance the debt,” he said. “We’ll just roll it forward.” Strategy currently carries more than $8 billion in total debt, much of it tied to convertible notes the company issued to fund Bitcoin purchases. Despite this leverage, Saylor said he believes lenders will continue to support the company even if Bitcoin prices decline sharply.  Asked whether banks would still be willing to lend under those circumstances, he replied that Bitcoin’s inherent volatility does not undermine its long‑term value. “Yeah,” he said, “because the volatility of Bitcoin is such that it’s always going to be a value.” Saylor also rejected any suggestion that Strategy might be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to shore up its balance sheet. He emphasized that liquidation is not part of the company’s plan and reiterated his belief in Bitcoin as a long‑term asset. Short Sellers Increase Bets  Market sentiment around Strategy, however, has grown more cautious. Short interest in the company’s stock has risen sharply, increasing about 40% from a low point in September 2025, according to an analysis published by Barron’s.  Roughly 30.5 million shares are now sold short, representing about 10% of the company’s public float. At the same time, long‑term investors have pulled back, with Strategy’s shares, MSTR, falling around 70% to current trading prices of $134.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target Despite the pressure on its stock, Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. According to figures published on the company’s website, it holds 714,644 BTC, valued at approximately $49 billion at the time of writing.  Saylor also noted that the company has sufficient liquidity to support its obligations, stating that Strategy has roughly two and a half years’ worth of cash on its balance sheet to cover dividend payments. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $69,192, registering losses of nearly 8% over the past seven days and 3% over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com