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Bitcoin may be entering a familiar but often misunderstood stage of the market cycle. Even as price action shows resilience, derivatives positioning tells a different story, with funding rates remaining bearish and suggesting many traders are still positioned defensively or betting against sustained upside.  Comparing Current Conditions To Previous Bitcoin Recoveries Bitcoin has now entered a disbelief phase as funding rates stay bearish. Analyst Darkfost has highlighted on X that funding rates have remained negative even as the BTC price continues to move higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 Meanwhile, this BTC chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30-day cumulative evolution of the funding rates on Binance, offering a clearer view of when funding rates entered a sustained negative trend. The indicator currently sits around -4.5%, underscoring how aggressively traders have continued betting against the market in recent months. For comparison, when BTC began emerging from the bear market in late 2022, funding rates on Binance fell even further, reaching nearly -7% on a 30-day sun basis. Whenever such a strong consensus formed, it would help create a bottom and fuel the rally that was beginning to develop. According to Darkfost, despite the market entering a phase of disbelief, traders still prefer to fight the trend rather than follow it. A trader known as Max Traders on X has also noted that Bitcoin funding rates haven’t been this negative in a long while. Historically, such extremes typically emerge when the market crowd is heavily positioned to one side. Despite BTC’s recent strength, many participants are positioning for a reversal, even as price action continues to suggest a strong short bias. However, this kind of crowded positioning often creates the opposite conditions for moves in that direction. Thus, if BTC price manages to maintain its current levels or push higher, the buildup of short positions could trigger a squeeze that would accelerate the move upward. The Conditions That Could Lead To A Bitcoin Reversal Bitcoin’s recent upside has been largely driven by institutional spot buying pressure over the last few weeks, with each major move higher supported by strong inflows visible in spot volume data. Crypto trader CGT Trader explained that the Coinbase Premium Index has also confirmed the same trend, which recorded a significant spike in institutional demand at the recent local top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 Since then, the BTC price has continued to grind higher, but the institutional spot buying has failed to make a new high. This creates a growing divergence that suggests a potential reversal. However, if this downtrend continues and large players start selling, the move could be retraced much faster than the recent upward rally. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price fails to break above the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market stuck in this range, attention is shifting to the possibility that Bitcoin could finally shift direction, potentially ending the current compression.  A major part of this discussion is the CME gap around $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing over periods when traditional trading is closed, such as weekends, while crypto trades continuously.  Drop To $60,000 Still On The Table Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on its 12-hour chart. The expectation being highlighted is that over $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level.  Even with that strong technical catalyst, Fencer also warned that the outcome may not remain purely bullish. He cautioned that the move could set up a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? The broader consequence could be a decline toward February lows around $60,000. If that scenario plays out, it would imply roughly a 26% retrace from that level, potentially reigniting bearish sentiment across the market. However, another perspective is coming from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional argues for a different outlook, contesting the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past week is driven only by leverage. The report frames the rally as potentially stronger than it looks, pointing to real demand rather than simply borrowing and forced positioning.  What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally? The study lists several indicators supporting its view. Rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are said to be near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand. It also notes accumulation by long-term holders, which is described as concentrating supply into “strong hands.”  While short liquidations can help trigger upward momentum, the report argues that similar squeezes have historically happened before—yet sustained rallies tend to last when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside A key area highlighted by the institutional framing is approximately $80,000, described as the short-term holder cost basis. According to this interpretation, reclaiming around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening.  If Bitcoin fails and rejects that level, the implication would be that weakness could persist rather than a durable uptrend forming. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been dwindling massively in recent days. Coins are moving off exchanges at a steady pace, removing available supply ready for purchase.  Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline and are moving into stronger hands. On the other hand, data tracking the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit shows that only about half of the addresses are in profit. Bitcoin Is Disappearing From Exchange Order Books CryptoQuant data tracking Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms shows the aggregate balance has fallen to approximately 2.671 million BTC as of April 24. Notably, reserves in exchanges have fallen from 2.68 million BTC on April 19, with the sharpest leg of the drawdown occurring during Bitcoin’s price climb above $77,700. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Whenever Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces the liquid supply available for immediate selling. This kind of supply reduction will always support price strength, especially when there is enough demand. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued falling throughout the cycle, even as prices corrected. However, perhaps the most telling development lies in how Bitcoin ownership is changing beneath the surface. CryptoQuant’s STH/LTH Supply vs. ETF Flows data, which tracks 30-day position changes across participant cohorts, reveals a decisive redistribution of Bitcoin ownership from weaker hands to stronger ones. Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have added 303,000 BTC to their positions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 16,800 BTC in inflows. Strategy has also added 53,000 BTC to its holdings over the same period.  Meanwhile, short-term holders, the cohort most sensitive to price movements and most likely to sell into strength or panic on weakness, have reduced their aggregate position by about 290,000 BTC. Only Half Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit Even as Bitcoin is being taken off crypto exchanges, profitability metrics show a more subdued outlook of how many investors are currently making money. On-chain data shows the seven-day moving average of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is currently at 52.3%, according to insights from The Block. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell At its peak, above $126,000 in October 2025, 99.66% of the supply was in profit. The drop to near 50% is a reflection of the impact of the correction that followed, bringing a large portion of the market back to breakeven levels. Still, Bitcoin’s recent rally above $77,000 pushed many more holders into profit. Only about 44.1% of the Bitcoin supply was held in profit on April 2. Readings above 90% are a reflection of late-stage bull markets. Therefore, based on that context, the current reading of 52.3% can be viewed through a bullish lens.  The three data streams (declining exchange reserves, net accumulation by long-term holders and institutions) and a supply-in-profit reading at the midpoint show Bitcoin is currently in a period of consolidation. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Etherealize, an institutional adoption and advocacy group backed by the Ethereum Foundation, has made a bold prediction, suggesting that ETH could one day reach $250,000 before Bitcoin (BTC). The group said that if Ethereum can capture a share of the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, the upside could be massive. That target is significantly higher than ETH’s current price of around $2,300, and would require a major shift in how global markets value the cryptocurrency. It would also mean Ethereum could become more than a smart contract chain and grow into a top store of value, similar to Bitcoin. How Ethereum Could Hit $250,000 Before Bitcoin In an X post, Etherealize published a detailed report outlining the factors that could push Ethereum toward the ambitious $250,000 valuation. For Ethereum to reach that price level, the group suggested that the cryptocurrency would need to be treated as a global monetary asset. That means pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks, and public firms would need to buy and hold ETH at scale rather than relying solely on Bitcoin. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts A 30% Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000, Here’s When Etherealize also pointed to supply dynamics as a major factor that could support price growth. The group explained that when ETH is staked or locked, fewer coins trade freely on the market. As a result, if demand rises while liquidity remains tight, upward price pressure could build more quickly, driving ETH higher. Beyond supply-and-demand trends, Etherealize also identified Ethereum’s ability to generate yield as a key driver of price growth. They noted that, unlike BTC, Ethereum can offer staking rewards to holders. Therefore, if global investors begin to view ETH as both a growth asset and an income-producing asset, it could strengthen its appeal as a long-term holding. Over time, the growing demand for cryptocurrency could fuel an upward momentum that could propel it toward the projected $250,000 target.  ETH Price Outlook Dependent On Global Monetary Value According to Etherealize, price action alone would not be enough to carry Ethereum to a $250,000 valuation. Instead, the group noted that that ambitious target depends on Ethereum capturing the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, which is about $31 trillion.  Etherealize argued that if Ethereum were to acquire part of that value, and move it across its roughly 121 million circulating supply, it could support a much higher valuation over time. Once this happens, they noted that Ethereum could begin competing for existing global stores of value. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Cycle Is Different: Crypto Expert Reveals When Price Will Cross $100,000 Again Etherealize also highlighted Ethereum’s role as a programmable blockchain that already supports a wide range of activity. In addition to being a payments currency, the crypto network also enables stablecoin issuance and real-world asset tokenization. This existing use case could also be a potential driver for ETH’s price.  Ultimately, Ethereum reaching $250,000 before Bitcoin is still a long shot. However, Etherealize believes that if ETH can become the base layer for global finance, attract sustained institutional demand, and capture value currently stored in gold and Bitcoin, that ambitious target could move from pure speculation to a possible long-term outcome.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The question of whether the Bitcoin price has hit a final bottom remains a major topic of discussion, as analysts remain unconvinced that the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a definitive floor. A recent analysis by market expert Maxi Trades suggests Bitcoin could be positioning for another major correction, forecasting a 30% crash that could push the price to fresh lows near $50,000. The bearish outlook has added to the market’s growing uncertainty about Bitcoin’s price direction, especially after the cryptocurrency’s latest rebound above $78,000. Historical Patterns Signal Upcoming Bitcoin Price Crash In his BTC price analysis shared on X this week, Maxi Trades drew on historical data and recurring chart patterns to support his bearish outlook for Bitcoin and projected bottom target. The analyst noted that the Bitcoin price has been stuck within a defined range for more than two and a half months now. He pointed out that a decisive breakout, either to the upside or the downside, has historically followed such an extended consolidation.  Related Reading: Bears Are Fully In Control Of Bitcoin And It Will Crash Below $60,000, Here’s Why According to Maxi Trades, the last three times Bitcoin displayed a similar range-bound movement, it took roughly 64 to 114 days for a breakout to occur. His accompanying chart reflects this historical setup, showing that during the first prolonged consolidation, Bitcoin traded sideways for 64 days before surging by 14%.  The second instance saw the cryptocurrency remain range-bound for 114 days, followed by a decline of approximately 27%. In a third similar formation, Bitcoin consolidated for 77 days before recording a 33% price crash. Based on this recurring trend, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could be approaching another major volatility event, with downside risk still on the table once its current range-bound movement resolves. Analyst Sees Bitcoin’s True Bottom Around $50,000 In his post, Maxi Trades noted that despite Bitcoin remaining in a bear market for more than six months since its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000, its price action has yet to show any signs of a true bottom formation. Because of this, he argued that the market has likely not reached its final capitulation phase.  Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH As a result, the analyst said he is highly confident that BTC’s next breakout may be to the downside, warning of another major price crash before a true market bottom is established. He added that if the current cycle unfolds like previous range-bound periods, the market may still have time left before the anticipated breakout.  Maxi Traders further noted that if his bearish scenario plays out and Bitcoin breaks below its recent lows, then the cryptocurrency could experience a rapid correction toward $50,000, marking a decline of more than 36% from current levels above $78,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $78,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $78,550 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $77,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $77,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $77,200 and $77,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Bitcoin price found support near $75,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $76,500 and $77,500 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $79,000. A high was formed at $79,490, and the price started a minor downside correction. It declined below $78,000 and tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. However, the bulls were active above $77,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $77,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,550 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,000 level. A close above the $79,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,550 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. The next support is now near the $76,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,200, followed by $77,000. Major Resistance Levels – $78,550 and $79,000.

Bitcoin and crypto have already proven that six figures are achievable, with price surging past $100,000 and extending to a peak of $126,198 in 2025. However, the pullback that followed has since dragged Bitcoin down to around $78,267. Yet, rather than signaling the end of the cycle, one expert argues that this downtrend is part of a broader structure that points to a return above $100,000. Bitcoin’s $100,000 Crypto Cycle Crypto expert @TheRealPlanC recently stated in a tweet that the rally which carried Bitcoin beyond $100,000 did not occur under favorable economic conditions. Instead, he explained that it developed during a contractionary business cycle, a period that has historically constrained risk assets. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook: Analyst Says These 4 Numbers Are Your Entire Week Even within that restrictive environment, Bitcoin advanced into six-figure territory, suggesting that underlying demand remained intact. As the expert notes, that strength was met with sustained selling. Long-term holders reduced exposure as prices climbed beyond $100,000, while traders guided by Bitcoin’s four-year cycle exited positions toward the latter part of 2025. The decline that followed was intense but not driven by market structure alone. A combination of disruptions, including an exchange-related incident, institutional trading concerns, and heightened global uncertainty, added further strain. Despite these pressures, Bitcoin’s drawdown settled at roughly 52% from peak to trough, a level that, in the analyst’s view, reflects a correction rather than a collapse. This sequence, as @TheRealPlanC frames it, recasts the $126,198 high. Instead of marking the end of the cycle, it begins to resemble the first peak in a market that has yet to fully play out. When Bitcoin Could Climb Back Above $100,000 With Bitcoin now trading well below its previous high, the focus shifts to timing its return above $100,000. The Crypto expert links this expectation to a shift in the broader economic backdrop. He points to recent data showing the business cycle moving above the neutral threshold for three consecutive months, a development that signals a transition toward expansion. This shift is significant because it contrasts with the restrictive conditions that defined the earlier rally, opening the door for renewed upside. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts XRP Price Will Hit $100 In 2026 If These Dominoes Fall He also highlights changing demand dynamics. Large-scale accumulation, led by corporate buyers such as Michael Saylor, is reportedly absorbing between 10,000 and 30,000 Bitcoin each week. In the analyst’s view, this steady demand adds a structural layer of support as the market stabilizes. Within this context, @TheRealPlanC interprets the decline from $126,198 to current levels near $78,267 as a mid-cycle reset rather than a prolonged downturn. Based on this framework, the analyst expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 as conditions improve. He ultimately places the next major peak in 2027, suggesting that a move back above six figures could occur before that point as momentum gradually rebuilds. This perspective positions the current phase as part of an extended cycle, where reclaiming $100,000 signals continuation rather than completion. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical juncture as it presses against its nearest resistance wall at $80,000, which, according to some analysts, if not cleared, may send BTC back below $70,000.   What’s happening under the surface is also getting more complicated, with CryptoQuant pointing to a key inflection point where two major groups of marginal buyers are effectively testing their own break-even prices at the same time. Why $80,000 Is The Decision Point In a recent CryptoQuant report, the focus was on exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and short-term whales—two cohorts that tend to influence price action when conditions become borderline.  The Realized Price of Bitcoin ETF investors was reported at about $76,4000 as of April 21. That cohort has been underwater since January 30 until April 23’s surge back above $77,000, meaning they had carried unrealized losses for nearly three months.  Related Reading: 4-Figure XRP: How High Will The Price Be If Ripple Captures 50% Of SWIFT? A similar dynamic is showing up with short-term holder whales. Their Realized Price sits at approximately $79,600, which is slightly above the spot price at the time of writing, meaning that they have been trading in loss territory since November 1.  CryptoQuant noted that With Bitcoin moving in a $76,000 to $80,000 range, both ETF-related demand and short-term whale positioning appear to be hovering near their respective “decision points.”  Two Scenarios For Bitcoin Ahead In this context, the key $80,000 level is not just a chart marker—it’s portrayed as the psychological and financial boundary between relief and renewed losses. Whether Bitcoin can withstand the sell pressure that can follow at these thresholds—especially if the market rejects the level—could shape the structure of BTC’s next directional move, potentially defining how the second quarter develops.  Related Reading: CEO Calls CLARITY Act ‘Horrible Bill,’ Warns Of Prolonged Crypto Bear Market Ahead Analyst Ash Crypto added a more direct two scenarios outlook tied to the $80,000 wall. In the first scenario, Bitcoin closes above $80,000 on a daily basis and confirms that this rally has real follow-through. If that occurs, Ash Crypto’s view is that BTC could then surge toward a target range of $86,000 to $90,000.  The second scenario is the opposite: if Bitcoin gets rejected near $80,000, the analyst expects a sharp pullback back into a $74,000 to $68,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst RWA Investor has predicted that Bitcoin will rally to $140,000 and XRP to $7, setting new all-time highs (ATHs) for these cryptos. The analyst also provided a timeline for when they will reach these targets and what will spark the parabolic rally.  Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Rally To $140,000 And XRP to $7 In an X post, RWA Investor predicted that Bitcoin would be trading at $140,000 in May and that XRP would hit $7. He claimed that this is not wishful thinking but a psychological perspective. The analyst explained that the transition from Wave 2 to Wave 3 is rapid and is intended to drive capital on the sidelines and all bears into the market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Power Laws Predicts When Price Will Hit $1,000,000 Meanwhile, the analyst indicated that the CLARITY Act and an interest rate cut will be the catalysts that spark this Bitcoin and XRP rally. He claimed that the crypto bill and an interest rate cut are just around the corner. However, it is worth noting that the crypto bill has yet to advance, with the Senate yet to set a markup date for the bill.  At the same time, there is still uncertainty about exactly when the Fed may lower rates, with the U.S.-Iran war raising inflation concerns. Market participants are currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed will hold rates steady throughout the year in a bid to bring inflation down to its 2% target.  As such, it is uncertain whether the CLARITY Act or an interest rate cut could spark this Bitcoin and XRP rally, since they are unlikely to happen anytime soon. However, these cryptos, alongside the broader crypto market, have rallied this week amid optimism that the U.S.-Iran war could end soon as both sides continue to negotiate. U.S. President Donald Trump also extended the ceasefire yesterday, signaling the U.S. willingness to end the war soon.  BTC Has Bottomed In an X post, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe opined that Bitcoin has bottomed, signaling that XRP and other altcoins may have also found a bottom. He noted that BTC’s fair value is still far away, even as the Nasdaq has made new ATHs, which is why the analyst is confident that this current rally may be sustained for a while.  Related Reading: $60,000 Is The Bottom: Bitcoin Analyst Predicts Lowest Level Before Run To $200,000 The analyst further remarked that, based on the statistical data, the only time the market has seen another low was due to the FTX collapse. He noted that there is no such case this time around and predicts that BTC will likely continue its uptrend towards $90,000, then consolidate there for a while. Michaël van de Poppe added that this is when altcoins will start to get some spotlight again. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the years, Bitcoin has maintained a near-consistent bull cycle pattern, usually starting and ending in a similar number of days. As a result, using the previous cycle pattern has become a popular way to try to predict when the next bull market will start and when the next bear market will begin. One of the patterns that many have followed to try to predict the next bull run is the number of days between each cycle, and one analyst is using it to predict the next move. The 1,065-Day Rule That Predicts The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Crypto analyst @0xbeehive took to the X (formerly Twitter) platform to explain a trend that has repeated over the last two cycles and could repeat again this time. This trend comes up with the number of days that go by between each bull market and when the next bear market begins. Related Reading: ‘The Short Version For Why I Hold XRP Through Everything’; Analyst Reveals The crypto analyst goes as far back as the 2018-2021 market cycle, which was one of the most important bull runs in the history of Bitcoin. Apparently, the bear market had run for a total of 365 days, so one year, before it eventually bottomed and began the next cycle move. This bull run would last for 1,066 days before topping. The result of this bull run was a massive rally that saw the Bitcoin price go from below $5,000 in 2020 to $69,000 before topping in 2021. This shows that this trend is powerful, and if the Bitcoin price does stick to it, then it could be a major run for it. Next on the list is the 2022-2025 bull run that saw another major Bitcoin price rally. The same trend repeated as the analyst shows that the Bitcoin price spent 365 days in the bear market before bottoming. Then, the bull market would resume and run for a similar 1,065 days, leading to an over 10x return, with the price going from $16,000 in 2022 and topping at $126,000 in 2025. Related Reading: Remember Arbitrum? This Analyst Just Predicted That A 7,400% Rally Is Coming This time around, the crypto analyst has highlighted that the same trend could be playing out once again. Currently, the bear cycle is still running, but it still has some ways to go before it’s completed. According to the analyst’s chart, the bear market will bottom in the last quarter of 2026, reaching somewhere around $47,000 in the process. As always, the crypto analyst expects a bull run that will last for another 1,065 days, but with diminishing returns as seen over the last few cycles. In this case, it would see the Bitcoin price cross $200,000, which would be an over 5x return for the digital asset. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows a large amount of Bitcoin short positions have been liquidated following the cryptocurrency’s surge to the $79,000 level. Bitcoin Has Surpassed $79,000 For The First Time Since Early February Bitcoin has seen a continuation of its recent bullish momentum during the past day as its price has hit the $79,300 level after a jump of nearly 5%. The below chart shows how the recent trajectory of the cryptocurrency has looked. Bitcoin also made an attempt at recovery last week, but that push ended up fizzling out as the asset approached the $78,000 level. This new surge has taken the cryptocurrency beyond this mark, to levels not seen since the first few days of February. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees First SuperTrend Bullish Flip In Over A Year Since the rally has been sharp, it has unleashed a wave of chaos over on the derivatives side of the sector. A Large Amount Of BTC Liquidations Have Piled Up On Exchanges According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has seen a notable amount of liquidations following the volatility of the last 24 hours. “Liquidation” here refers to the forceful closure that any open contract undergoes after it has amassed losses of a certain degree. Below is a heatmap that shows how daily liquidations have compared between the various assets in the sector. It would appear that Bitcoin has been the number one contributor of liquidations in the market like usual, with more than $222 million in positions related to the asset getting flushed during the past day. About $205 million of these positions were short ones, meaning that bearish bets made up for an extreme majority of the liquidations. Shorts being the most heavily affected side is naturally down to the fact that the cryptocurrency has seen a sharp surge inside this window. Ethereum, which has seen the second-largest derivatives flush, also saw the shorts make up for $99 million of its $115 million in total liquidations. In total, the digital asset sector as a whole has witnessed nearly $449 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. From the table, it’s apparent that $365 million or over 80% of these liquidations involved short positions, reinforcing the bullish wave that the sector as a whole has seen in this period. A mass liquidation event like today’s is popularly known as a squeeze. Since the latest event has involved mostly shorts, it would be called a short squeeze. Generally, these events kickstart after a sharp swing in the price unleashes an initial wave of liquidations. This flush then feeds back into the move, which causes even more liquidations in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Fading? Sentiment Hits Highest Since Mid-January In the cryptocurrency sector, these events aren’t exactly a rare sight due to the volatility that coins tend to see on the regular and leverage use being widespread among derivatives traders. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed higher on Wednesday, extending its recovery rally to levels not seen since late January. The price rose to just under 5% above the $79,000 mark after President Trump announced he would extend a ceasefire with Iran.  Can Bitcoin Sustain The Rally?  Market analysts say attention is shifting quickly from the breakout itself to the next set of hurdles higher up the chart. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said he believes the $75,000 to $86,000 zone does not look “saturated” with heavy resistance.  In his view, if there are no major negative developments, Bitcoin could maintain upward momentum. He also flagged $86,000 as a critical point, though, because the 200-day moving average (MA) is expected to sit near that level and lines up with an important pivot area.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom At $63,000? Grayscale Research Flags Feb. 5 As This Cycle’s Low Others emphasized that near-term support has been holding up, which could help Bitcoin keep pressing higher. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said the $75,000 level should act as solid support.  She added that a clean move above $80,000 would likely open the door to “significant” further upside, suggesting traders are watching for confirmation rather than just a quick spike. As Bitcoin climbs, sentiment will likely depend on whether the current strength can continue. Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said the key question going forward is whether the breakout can be sustained and translated into new momentum.  He pointed to a mix of supportive conditions, including relative stability in macro factors, gradual improvement in institutional flows, and progress on regulatory clarity.  At the same time, he warned that the market still has to deal with headline risk—especially from global geopolitics—as well as shifts in broader risk appetite that can quickly change how investors respond to crypto news. 8% Pause Could Come Before The Real Push Market expert Ali Martinez also weighed on the recent surge, noting that Bitcoin is forming a bullish reversal pattern, currently developing a Morning Star candlestick setup on the monthly chart.  This is described as a three-day sequence often interpreted as a signal that sellers may be exhausted and that buyers are regaining control. Even so, Martinez cautioned that strong signals don’t always produce an immediate straight-line rally.  Related Reading: XRP Indicator Turns Bullish Again After 3 Months: What’s The Next Price Target? According to his read of the data, Bitcoin often pauses briefly after the move—typically around “an 8% breather” on average—before the bigger continuation leg begins. This implies that BTC could retrace back to $72,000 before moving higher.  Taken together, the next move may depend on whether BTC can hold above established support levels like $75,000, sustain the push through key thresholds such as $80,000, and avoid major negative shocks as geopolitics and risk sentiment remain active variables for markets. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the cost basis of the Bitcoin short-term holders is located at $80,700, a level that could come into focus after the latest rally. Bitcoin Is Nearing The Short-Term Holder Realized Price In a new post on X, cycle analyst Root has shared the latest data for the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition level of investors on the Bitcoin network. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees First SuperTrend Bullish Flip In Over A Year When the value of the cryptocurrency is above this indicator, it means the BTC holders as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset trading below the metric suggests the dominance of loss on the network. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific portion of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price broke under the STH Realized Price during the price drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, the cryptocurrency has remained trapped below the line. As BTC’s drawdown has played out, the STH cost basis itself has also gone down. The reason behind this naturally lies in the fact that coins have been getting involved in trading at the lower post-crash prices, thus decreasing the average acquisition mark of the new investors. Today, the STH Realized Price is sitting at $80,700. Following BTC’s latest price rally, the cryptocurrency isn’t too far from hitting this level, implying that if the bullish winds continue, a retest of it could end up taking place. In the past, the indicator has often held relevance for Bitcoin as a support or resistance level. The reason behind this lies in the fact that the STHs represent the low-conviction side of the market, who tend to easily show reaction to price movements; a retest of their cost basis is naturally an event that causes members of the cohort to make some moves on the network. From the chart, it’s visible that the price rally back in January topped out near the STH Realized Price. This suggests that the cohort looked at the recovery surge as an opportunity to exit at their break-even mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Fading? Sentiment Hits Highest Since Mid-January If Bitcoin attempts another retest of the level in the near future, it will be interesting to see how the market will react this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has hit the $78,200 level following its latest price surge. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $77,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $79,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $76,500 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $78,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $77,150 and $76,650 levels. Bitcoin Price Regains Traction Bitcoin price found support near $74,850 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $75,500 and $77,200 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $78,500. A high was formed at $79,490, and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,500 level. There is also a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $78,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $79,200 level. A close above the $79,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $77,700 level. The first major support is near the $77,150 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. The next support is now near the $76,650 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,700, followed by $77,150. Major Resistance Levels – $78,500 and $79,500.

A crypto analyst has presented a new analysis, forecasting Bitcoin’s (BTC) next all-time high and potential market bottom. According to the analyst, BTC’s long-term price outlook could depend heavily on where its current market bottom forms. The analysis draws on historical cycle patterns and bear markets that preceded BTC’s explosive upward rallies. Based on these patterns, the expert projects that if BTC has found a bottom near $60,000, then the next likely top could be around $200,000.  Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Points To Final Market Bottom Crypto market expert Ardi has shared a new outlook on X, examining Bitcoin’s long-term cycle behavior and the implications of a possible market bottom. He noted that over the last four market cycles, Bitcoin’s bottom-to-top expansion has steadily compressed, with each cycle delivering only about 40%-50% of the upside seen in the previous one.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell For added emphasis, he explained that if the last cycle recorded a roughly 7-8x upside off the price bottom, then the next market cycle could statistically see a 3-4x upside, based on his 40-50% theory. This pattern suggests a maturing market with gradually declining exponential returns as adoption and market size increase.  Mathematically, Ardi presents his predictive model for Bitcoin’s cycle bottom and peak as: Next cycle top ≈ this cycle bottom x (previous multiple x k) The previous multiple is estimated at 7-8x from the 2022 bear market lows to the 2025 peak, while the k factor represents a historical diminishing factor of 0.4-0.5 derived from earlier Bitcoin cycles. Based on this framework, Ardi explained that if $60,000 is Bitcoin’s official bottom this cycle, then this level could serve as a key reference point for mapping the next phase of market development and potential bullish structure.     Notably, BTC crashed to $60,000 earlier in February 2026 after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran that same month, causing oil prices to skyrocket. This was the first time BTC reached this level after hitting an ATH above $126,000 in October 2025, although the cryptocurrency had been in a downtrend since that peak. BTC Cycle Model Projects $200,000 ATH Using the mathematical model, Ardi outlined that a $60,000 price floor would place Bitcoin’s next cycle base-case peak at $190,000 to $200,000. This zone is presented as the analyst’s expected outcome under normal diminishing returns conditions. The projection also includes a stronger extension phase, during which euphoric market momentum could push Bitcoin to $240,000, marking its true supercycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could See Another Crash, But What Is The Long-Term Prognosis? On the other hand, if the market bottom forms closer to $50,000, the cycle model will adjust lower, placing BTC’s base case peak near $160,000. Meanwhile, euphoric momentum could extend BTC toward the $200,000 region. Ardi emphasized that as long as the broader cycle structure remains intact, these projected ranges will continue to define where BTC’s next major bull rally could conclude. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a bear market despite its recent price rally, warning that the cryptocurrency could be headed for a deeper correction below $60,000. The call comes amid repeated failed breakouts and weakening momentum, raising doubts about any near-term recovery. According to the analyst, the current price structure suggests bears remain firmly in control, with downside risks continuing to build.  Why Bitcoin Is Still Bearish Despite Recent Rebounds A technical analyst known as JDK Analysis on X has shared fresh insights into Bitcoin’s current price action and potential next moves. In his post, he stated that Bitcoin’s recent price rally above $75,000 marked its fourth fakeout. He argued that, rather than a sustained price recovery, the latest upward moves may signal weakness, reinforcing his base case that BTC is currently in a short-term reaccumulation phase within a broader bear market. Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH JDK Analysis noted that the current re-accumulation phase lacked the key signals typically seen at true market bottoms, which often precede a sustained price reversal. As a result, he suggests that any near-term upside will likely be limited until a final price floor is reached.  The analyst explained that strong market bottoms do not emerge suddenly. Instead, they form after an extended downtrend with multiple processes involved. He stated that large-scale investors cannot simply “buy the bottom” like most retail traders because their investments are substantial enough to move the market and influence prices. He added that buying only occurs when enough traders are willing to sell coins, making it even harder for big players to enter positions. If they decide to place large buy orders even when there are not enough sellers available, they could end up pushing prices higher and buying at even worse levels.  To address this, JDK Analysis noted that most large players typically seek out liquidity by targeting areas with clustered orders. He said that it also helps when many traders are caught on the wrong side of the market, as their positions provide easy exit liquidity for whales. He called this process liquidity engineering, noting that it explains why Bitcoin’s price often moves up and down within a range, appearing as though it is recovering.  The analyst added that the same process also applies when Bitcoin experiences sudden drops. During sharp moves, traders often panic and sell, leading to downside fakeouts in which prices briefly fall before reversing or stabilizing. Overall, JDK Analysis remains firm in his view that the market is not in a recovery stage. Instead, he argues that bears are still largely in control, with no confirmed bottom in place and the possibility of another major price crash still ahead.  BTC Faces Possible Crash Below $60,000 While he maintains that the market is still bearish, JDK Analysis has explained what a true bottom should look like. He stated that a real bottom forms after several failed attempts to push prices lower. He emphasized that during repeated downside moves, trading volume typically declines, signaling that selling pressure is fading as sellers become exhausted. Once this happens, the market begins to shift before a fresh bullish trend begins. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook: Analyst Says These 4 Numbers Are Your Entire Week However, the analyst argues that current market conditions are showing opposite behavior. Instead of exhaustion, prices continue to test the upper range before getting rejected. He also noted that BTC’s overall supply appears to be dominating demand, with each upward push accompanied by declining trading volume. The analyst views this as a major bearish signal. His chart shows that once Bitcoin breaks further below $75,000, the cryptocurrency could be heading toward its next crash level around $59,000. If this support fails, the analyst predicts an even deeper correction below $56,000, possibly marking its final bottom. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is back in a place where bold upside calls are starting to circulate again, and while short-term sentiment is still mixed, one analyst believes the cryptocurrency is setting up for a powerful move that sends the price action all the way to $200,000. The call is built around a long-term cycle structure on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart that treats Bitcoin’s recent price action as part of a larger repeating pattern. The Monthly Chart Case For $200,000 The chart Bitcoin Teddy shared is a monthly Bitcoin chart that maps out three major cycle phases using large green expansion boxes and blue-circled buy zones. These buy zones are situated around a curved support line that connects previous lows. Related Reading: Why You Should Be Paying Attention To The Bitcoin Monthly MACD The first buy zone appeared in 2019, ahead of the move that eventually carried Bitcoin above $69,000. The second buy zone was in late 2022, just before the rally that eventually pushed Bitcoin’s price action to $126,000 in October 2025. The third is the current setup, labeled as a 2026 buy zone near the long-term curved support line, with the projected next peak sitting at $200,000. Each rally is gradually shrinking in percentage terms. The move from 2019 to 2021’s peak was over 2,000%. The move from 2022 to the current peak was over 700%. The expected move from the current accumulation zone to $200,000 is around 233%. When The Chart Says To Buy The “when to buy” part of the forecast is just as important as the $200,000 target itself. Bitcoin Teddy’s chart points to the current region, which is the zone between the long-term curve and the lower part of the latest green box, as the preferred entry window. That area sits around the $60,000s up into the $70,000s, with the blue circle placed close to the latest corrective low in February. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Bitcoin has since rebounded from that February low, and the broader market has started to stabilize, with Spot ETF inflows returning to more consistent levels. Despite that recovery, price action has not fully broken away from the highlighted accumulation band. It is still within the same broader zone identified on the chart, meaning the setup to the $200,000 projection is still technically in place. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,880. Therefore, the path from current levels to $200,000 would require approximately a 156% gain from around $77,000, a move that several institutional analysts believe is achievable within the current cycle window.  Goldman Sachs filed for its first Bitcoin ETF product shortly after Morgan Stanley launched its own spot Bitcoin ETF, showing that large financial firms are still pushing deeper into Bitcoin-linked products. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst, Zynx, on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, has shown where the Bitcoin price might be headed over the next few years using the Bitcoin Power Law. This law shows a steady upward trajectory, putting into perspective the performance of Bitcoin over a long period of time. Using this Power Law, the crypto analyst lays out the first prediction, and that is that the Bitcoin price will end up hitting $145,000 in 2026. This would mean that the digital asset would complete an over 100% rally in order to hit this target, suggesting that there is another bull run coming this year. As the years start to stretch out, so does the Bitcoin prediction go higher. For the year 2027, the analyst puts the price as high as $200,000, an almost 3x from the current levels at the time of writing. Then the next year, 2028, the Bitcoin price is expected to hit $265,000. Related Reading: Remember Arbitrum? This Analyst Just Predicted That A 7,400% Rally Is Coming The predictions do not end there, spreading out farther and the price rising drastically with each year. By 2029, the Bitcoin price is expected to have hit $350,000, and still, this is not the highest. This is because the next year of 2030 shows the Bitcoin price then touching $470,000. The last of the predictions shows when the Bitcoin price will hit $1,000,000 per coin and this is expected to happen in 2030. This would mean that the bitcoin price would rise by more than 1,400% in the next five years to rally above $1,000,000. One interesting thing about the analyst’s prediction is the fact that it expects the Bitcoin price to continue to rise year over year. This would leave little to no room for bear markets, with what could be described as a perpetual bull run if the price is to hit this target. Every so often I like to check what the Bitcoin Power Law predicts. Mid-year projections: 2026: ~$145,000 2027: ~$200,000 2028: ~$265,000 2029: ~$350,000 2030: ~$470,000 2033: ~$1,000,000 Current price = $75,200 We are in historically undervalued territory. ₿ullish. — Zynx (@ZynxBTC) April 20, 2026 The Bitcoin Power Law Explained The Bitcoin power law usually focuses on the long-term outlook of the cryptocurrency, often taking a more bullish route due to the length of time that it predicts over. Mostly, it uses historical performances to predict how high the Bitcoin price could go. It then plots this on a ‘Power line’ that shows the advancement of Bitcoin through the years. Related Reading: Analyst Says Ethereum Just Confirmed A ‘Turtle Soup’, Here’s What It Means Over time, the Power Law has pointed to the Bitcoin price crossing $100,000, which it eventually did, and as the price has risen, so has the Power Law forecasts. One website, Bitbo, plots the Power Law starting from 2011, and going by the trajectory, the price is much higher than it is now. This movement suggests that while the Bitcoin price may fluctuate in the short term, it continues to actually maintain an upward trajectory in the long term. It also means that the ‘outrageous’ predictions that analysts make all the time for the digital asset may very well be a matter of when, and not if. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $75,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $77,350 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $74,500 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $75,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with resistance at $77,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $77,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Regains Traction Bitcoin price remained supported above the $74,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $74,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $75,000 and $75,500 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. There is also a rising channel forming with resistance at $77,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $75,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,250 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,350 level. A close above the $77,350 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,350 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,000 level. The first major support is near the $75,650 level. The next support is now near the $75,400 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,000, followed by $75,400. Major Resistance Levels – $77,250 and $78,000.

Anthony Scaramucci, the financier and SkyBridge Capital founder who briefly served as White House communications director, has made a bold case for Bitcoin’s long-term value.  According to him, Bitcoin’s market cap is well on track to reach $21 trillion, and this is because of its fixed supply, its growing institutional footprint, and a monetary trust system built over 16 years without any central authority. But if Bitcoin were to reach a market cap of $21 trillion, how much would 1 BTC be worth? The $21 Trillion Logic Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC baked into its protocol and is immutable by design. This means there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin in existence, and at a point, investors will be able to only own fractions of Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could See Another Crash, But What Is The Long-Term Prognosis? According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin has checked every characteristic that has defined money throughout human history. Bitcoin’s edge is that its trust model is decentralized, its supply is fixed, and its network has now operated long enough to gain credibility with both retail and institutional investors. That is why there is a high possibility of its market cap reaching as high as $21 trillion.  Scaramucci positions this as a ceiling still below gold’s total market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately $33 trillion according to data from CompaniesMarketCap. This gap is closable, and Bitcoin offers structural advantages in the process. “You can move it faster, you can store it more easily,” he said. “ On a fully diluted basis, the math lands exactly at a round figure for BTC. A $21 trillion market cap divided by Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins gives a price of $1 million per BTC. At the time of writing, only 20,018,784 BTC have been mined, which means there are about 981,216 Bitcoin still left to be mined. That’s less than 5% of the total supply. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $76,534, which means a rise to $1 million will translate to a 1,200% increase from here. Wall Street Is Coming To Bitcoin Institutional inflow is the most important factor when it comes to the possibility of the Bitcoin price hitting extravagant price targets like $1 million. Notably, Scaramucci cited institutional momentum as evidence that the structural shift is already in progress.  Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Morgan Stanley launched its own Spot Bitcoin ETF on April 8, 2026, trading under the ticker MSBT on NYSE Arca, making it the first major US commercial bank to issue such a product directly. Goldman Sachs is also in the process of launching its Spot Bitcoin ETF, having submitted paperwork to the SEC for the Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. Therefore, the question of whether Bitcoin eventually reaches $1 million per coin and a $21 trillion market cap is ultimately a question about the pace and durability of institutional adoption. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has recovered to its highest level since mid-January, a sign that belief is returning among crypto traders. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Hit A Value Of 33 The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that measures the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. To represent the investor mentality, it uses a scale running from 0-100. The value on the scale is calculated using the data of five factors: market cap dominance, volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says When the indicator has a value greater than 53, it means the average trader sentiment is one of greed. On the other hand, the indicator being below 47 implies the dominance of fear. The values in between the two cutoffs correspond to a net neutral mentality. Here’s what the current market sentiment is like, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 33 right now, which suggests that the Bitcoin market sentiment is one of fear. This is actually an improvement compared to what the investor mentality was like just a few days ago. From the chart below, it’s apparent that the Fear & Greed Index had a value of 21 on April 17th. Such a low value falls inside a special zone known as the extreme fear. Formally, this region is defined as corresponding to a value of 25 or lower and represents the state of highest despair among investors. The market sentiment had deteriorated into this zone as a result of the bearish market trajectory since Q4 2025. In January, some relief had come for the market as the recovery surge induced a flicker of greed among investors, but things changed quickly as the price crash that followed took the Fear & Greed Index to its lowest levels of the cycle. Recently, Bitcoin has again been making an attempt at recovery, and market sentiment has responded with an improvement. The current value of 33 is the highest that the index has been since January 19th. While sentiment has improved from the extreme fear zone, it’s still inside fear, meaning that investors aren’t yet fully on board with the bullish momentum. If history is anything to go by, though, this fact may actually play into the asset’s benefit. Often, digital asset markets have tended to move in a way that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. Related Reading: Is XRP Gearing Up For A 35% Move? This Pattern May Suggest So Since extreme fear is where investors are most sure of a bearish outcome, major bottoms have tended to form inside the region in the past. The same has been true for a similar region in the greed side of the scale, called the extreme greed (values above 75), which has facilitated top formations before. BTC Price Bitcoin’s recent rally has taken its price to the $76,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin enters the new trading week with a defined roadmap, as DeFi researcher and analyst, Sherlockwhale, identifies four specific price levels that could shape market direction. The framework is built on an extensive review of about 450 weeks of historical data, translating recent price action into a structured guide centered on how Bitcoin closes at the start and middle of the week. Bitcoin’s Weekly Structure Sets The Stage According to Sherlockwhale, Bitcoin ended last week near $76,000, reflecting a 7.2% increase from Monday’s opening price. While this suggests upward momentum, the internal structure of the weekly candle tells a more cautious story. Price climbed as high as $78,333 before pulling back, with a 1.79% drop on Saturday followed by only a modest recovery on Sunday. By the weekly close, Bitcoin had settled around 70% of its total range. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts XRP Price Will Hit $100 In 2026 If These Dominoes Fall This detail matters because a close at this level indicates that price remained in the upper portion of its range but failed to hold near its peak, leaving behind a visible rejection. Historical patterns analyzed by the analyst show that when Bitcoin breaks the previous week’s high but closes in this manner, the following week ends lower roughly 62% of the time.  Within this context, four price levels—$79,800, $79,116, $74,480, and $69,861—become central to the outlook. The analyst presents them as decisive markers, with their relevance tied to how price behaves during key checkpoints, particularly Monday and Wednesday closes. The Four Bitcoin Price Levels That Define the Week On the upside, $79,800 stands out as a major threshold, positioned about 5% above the weekly open. Historical data cited by Sherlockwhale shows that when Monday closes above this level, the week finishes positive nearly 89.6% of the time, rising to 95.5% in data tracked since 2021. Just below it, $79,116, approximately 1% above the prior high of $78,333, serves as confirmation that Bitcoin is holding above resistance. Midweek performance further refines the outlook. If Bitcoin remains more than 3% above Monday’s open by Wednesday, historical records across 141 instances point to an 86% chance of a positive weekly close. When gains exceed 5% by that point, the probability increases to 91.4% based on 93 occurrences. Related Reading: The Hidden FVG Zone That Says Ethereum Price Could Rally To $10,000 On the downside, $74,480 becomes critical. A Monday close below this level, about 2% under the open, signals that the prior rally may have been a false move. If losses extend beyond 2% by Wednesday, the week ends in the red about 80% of the time, with recent data showing no exceptions in similar conditions. Finally, $69,861, just below the previous low of $70,567, represents a full sweep of the weekly range. Interestingly, history suggests that such moves often precede a rebound, with the remainder of the week turning positive in roughly 81.8% of cases. According to Sherlockwhale, these four levels form a structured lens through which the week’s price action can be interpreted. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor announced on Monday that Strategy had carried out another massive Bitcoin buy. The multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin purchase did not come as a surprise to the market, given that the company had already been raising more money to buy BTC leading up to the day. However, what is interesting is how much BTC the public company now holds and what it means in comparison to other counterparts with large holdings in the market. Strategy’s BTC Holdings Have Now Crossed 800,000 BTC With the most recent buy, where the company bought 34,164 BTC, it has now seen its Bitcoin holdings cross the 800,000 BTC mark for the first time. According to the announcement, this latest BTC buy had set the company back a whopping $2.54 billion with an average price of $74,395 per Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Flips Key Resistance, ETF Demand Returns, Analysts Eye Next Leg Higher This brought the company’s total holdings to 815,061 BTC, with the total purchase history coming out to $61.56 billion spent so far. This buy also brought down the company’s average buy price for its BTC holdings to $75,527, decreasing its total entry point. With the holdings now sitting above 815,000 BTC, though, this means that Strategy has actually surpassed BlackRock when it comes to BTC holdings. Previously, BlackRock had dominated the market as Spot Bitcoin ETFs gained popularity rapidly, and BlackRock’s holdings grew very fast. However, at the time of writing, the BlackRock IBIT total BTC holdings sit below 800,000, at 798,062, according to data from Bitbo. This is a small gap, but it shows how Strategy’s BTC buys have continued to balloon, going toe-to-toe with BlackRock, which is a company that handles over $12 trillion in assets. Will Michael Saylor Stop Buying Bitcoin? In the past, Michael Saylor has said that Strategy’s move to buy Bitcoin as a treasury asset was not a short-term plan, and this has been proven over the years. The company began buying Bitcoin back in 2020, and five years on, it is still buying BTC and remains the company with the largest BTC holdings in the world. Related Reading: Dogecoin Nears Key Turning Point As TCT Model Begins To Form In an interview with CNBC back in February, Saylor reiterated his stance on Bitcoin, explaining that the company does not plan to sell its Bitcoin holdings anytime soon. So far, the company has not made its exit plan, or if there is one, public yet. So for now, the focus remains on the company’s BTC buys rather than a possible sell. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

A CryptoQuant analyst has explained how the recent Bitcoin recovery has still looked like a bear market rally based on signals in on-chain metrics. Bitcoin Recovery Has Come Alongside A Rise In The LTH Supply In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has discussed the recent recovery run that Bitcoin has witnessed. This surge has arrived after BTC stabilized into a consolidation range following its low at the start of February. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Network Collapsing Into AI At Record Pace, Analyst Warns On-chain data suggests that this bottoming process started alongside an uptick in the supply of the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are defined as investors who have been holding onto their tokens since more than 155 days ago. As the below chart shows, the 30-day change in the supply of this Bitcoin cohort was negative between mid-2025 and January 2026, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were distributing their coins. Since the end of January, however, the metric has flipped negative, a sign that coins have been becoming a part of the LTH supply. Note that this metric has a 155-day delay attached between when buying occurred and when it reflects on the data since coins first have to be held for 155 days before they can be classified into the group. As such, the green netflow doesn’t imply accumulation that’s occurring in the present. What it does suggest, however, is that the market has seen the rise of HODLing conviction as BTC has settled into the consolidation phase. In the last month, 345,000 BTC has matured into the group. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” noted Maartunn. While the latest price recovery has come alongside a surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply, it has also been met with selling pressure. The short-term holders (STHs), investors with a holding time of 155 days or lower, sent about 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Another metric shows that STHs have been transferring their Bitcoin at a loss recently, suggesting that they have still been exiting at a loss despite the recovery surge. Distribution has not just come from the STHs, but also the large entities holding more than 100 BTC in their wallets, who have seen their exchange inflows pick up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Fails To Lift Market Sentiment From Extreme Fear The selling pressure from these groups could be why the Bitcoin rally hasn’t been able to push higher despite the trend in the LTH supply and the accumulation from Strategy. “For now, this still looks like a bear market rally…” said Maartunn. “But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.” BTC Price Bitcoin surged above $78,000 last week, but the asset has since seen a setback as its price has dropped to $75,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $73,650 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to clear the $76,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $74,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $76,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Aims Higher Bitcoin price extended losses below the $75,500 support zone. BTC even spiked below $74,000 before the bulls appeared. A low was formed at $73,637, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above the $74,500 and $75,000 levels. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. Bitcoin is now trading above $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,500 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,250 level. A close above the $77,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $76,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,400 level. The first major support is near the $75,000 level. The next support is now near the $74,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $73,650 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now moving lower toward the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,000, followed by $74,250. Major Resistance Levels – $76,500 and $77,250.

The latest Bitcoin (BTC) price rebound above $78,000 has sparked renewed optimism across the market, as investor sentiment has flipped bullish. However, not all market watchers are convinced that the momentum will last. Crypto analyst Marmot is warning that the recent price surge may be masking deeper weakness underneath, urging investors and traders not to trust it. As bullish forecasts continue to spread across the market, Marmot believes traders may overlook signals that often precede sharp reversals and major shifts in market direction.  Why Bitcoin’s Rally Above $78,000 Could Be A Trap Marmot has warned that Bitcoin’s recent price rally could be a major bull trap rather than a sustained breakout. According to him, the rebound resembles a classic distribution pattern designed to shake out retail traders before a sharp decline occurs.  Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 In his post on X, the analyst cautioned investors and traders against trusting BTC’s bounce above $78,000, as market participants increasingly call for a price of $100,000 even as the cryptocurrency may still be in a bear market. He argued that Bitcoin’s real market move remains undetected and unknown to virtually 99% of traders despite growing bullish sentiment.  Supporting his bearish forecast, Marmot highlighted two identical structures on a Bitcoin price chart, showing that the cryptocurrency had experienced a massive price surge between December 2025 and January 2026 after its all-time high above $126,000. At the time, BTC formed a triangle wedge pattern, where prices climbed to a range between $96,000 and $100,000 before a massive price crash to below $65,000 in February 2026. Marmot’s chart shows that the same pattern is now unfolding in real time. Bitcoin is currently grinding inside a consolidation triangle wedge between roughly $72,000 and $80,000 following its recent price spike. If historical patterns repeat, the analyst expects Bitcoin to experience another major correction, this time down to the $50,000 range. This would represent a more than 33.5% crash from levels above $75,200, at the time of writing.  ETF Flows And Liquidity Add Pressure To BTC In his post, Marmot also pointed to several factors that continue to add more pressure on Bitcoin’s price and outlook. He pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETF activity, noting that they had recently recorded their largest outflows in months. He stated that approximately $300 million was withdrawn in a single day, with outflows also seen in Fidelity’s ETF.  Related Reading: Iran Ceasefire Drives Bitcoin Above $75,000, But Can It Push BTC To $100,000? Moreover, while retail investors continue buying the dip, Marmot argued that institutions are selling into the strength. Rather than fully exiting the market, the analyst said that large players are rotating capital elsewhere, as part of a broader repositioning.  Marmot also claimed that liquidity walls imposed by investment firms such as BlackRock are helping to hold prices up artificially. He noted that the reason is likely to create exit liquidity for smart money while demand from smaller traders remains active.  While Marmot has acknowledged that a Bitcoin price crash may not happen immediately, he warned that once liquidity leaves the market, the cryptocurrency’s downside move could be fast and severe. As a result, he has urged traders not to buy near the top while funds are still rebalancing. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is showing renewed strength after a sharp rebound, signaling that buyers are stepping back in at key levels. With momentum building and price pushing higher, attention is now shifting toward the $79,000 resistance zone, where a breakout could confirm continued upside and open the door for a stronger rally. Selling Pressure After Initial Reaction Bitcoin saw an immediate response to yesterday’s developments, facing notable selling pressure as the market processed the news. Analyst Kamile Uray highlights that while the initial reaction was bearish, the possibility for a continued rally remains on the table, provided the immediate low of $73,371 is successfully defended. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Gives Back Gains, But Structure Remains Bullish However, a 4-hour candle close below this mark would likely trigger a deeper correction toward the $68,720 level, which represents the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent upward wave. Holding this support provides the foundation for a fresh leg up. On the bullish side, a decisive close above $79,000 would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend toward much higher targets. Uray identifies a major resistance cluster between $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000. Should the price face a rejection at these elevated levels, traders should expect a return to the previous support zones, ranging from $73,371 to the $66,000 region. Examining the daily timeframe, the $65,666 level serves as a pivot point. As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above this threshold, the overall structure remains skewed toward a potential rise. A failure to hold the $65,666 level would shift the focus to lower support levels at $63,823, $62,433, and $60,000. The most critical warning comes at the $60,000 mark; a daily close below this psychological and technical barrier would likely extend the corrective phase significantly. Bitcoin Bounces Strongly As Week Kicks Off In his most recent update, analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted a relatively strong upward bounce for Bitcoin on Monday. This movement is particularly significant as it occurs during a period where markets typically trend toward a risk-off stance ahead of the weekly opening. The ability of Bitcoin to push higher against this cautious backdrop suggests underlying strength in current demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Confirmed, But Is It Real Or A Bull Trap? A key factor in this analysis is the recent decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets. While Bitcoin has shown resilience and upward momentum, gold has trended downward. Looking at the weekly outlook, the presence of a price gap at the $77,300 level remains a primary focal point for traders. Given the strength of the recent bounce and the existing technical vacuum toward that higher level, Bitcoin is expected to fill this gap and achieve new highs before the current week concludes. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

For over a decade, Bitcoin has been championed as a financial system beyond the reach of government institutions or elite influence. Its decentralization narrative, built on open-source code, distributed consensus, and a global network of participants, has made it a symbol of financial independence. However, fresh waves of speculation tied to the Epstein files are now challenging that perception, pushing the conversation into more uncomfortable territory. Who Actually Influences The Bitcoin Network In Practice? A narrative is spreading that the Jeffrey Epstein Files reveal that Israel hijacked control of the Bitcoin network over a decade ago. The Matrixbot revealed on X that Israel was paying salaries of 60% of BTC core developers and offered highly exclusive gifts behind the scenes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pioneer Adam Back Addresses Mention In Epstein Files Furthermore, Epstein and Israel were also the major investors in Blockstream, a company that works with Tether and exerts significant influence over BTC. They can manipulate the BTC price by issuing unbacked Tether, controlling the network code because they hired most of the developers, and own a majority of the nodes. According to Matrixbot, this claim shows that Israel has direct access to the code and influence over the BTC. The idea of decentralization is clearly illusory, and it is deeply concerning that the network could be manipulated by a single state operating behind the scenes. Record Realized Losses Signal Extreme Market Stress In Bitcoin This bear cycle has driven Bitcoin into one of the largest aggressive realized losses in dollar regimes in its history. OnChainMind has noted that at the peak of the downturn, the network recorded nearly $1 billion per day in net realized losses. Data shows that the bulk of the early selling pressure originated from investors who had entered the market just 3 to 6 months ago, often referred to as weak hands.  Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Data Turns Cautious: Supply Rises, But SOPR Stays Below 1.0 Currently, a more resilient cohort of holders who held for 6 to 12 months is beginning to show signs of strain. Historically, when progressively stronger hands begin to capitulate, it signals a late-stage bear market dynamic. Crypto trader known as ctm_trader has also pointed out that Bitcoin has been grinding higher, with 7 out of the last 8 two-day candles closing green. This kind of non-stop upward price action is often difficult to sustain, leading to massive liquidations. The last time BTC printed a similar structure, the price pulled back nearly half the move within hours, triggering large-scale liquidations and wiping out millions. Now, the liquidity sitting below is even larger. At the same time, indicators are flashing an overbought market. As the recent price action and structure are bearish, and BTC just swept the recent highs, it raises the possibility that the market could be positioning for a larger move to the downside. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $78,400 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $73,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $76,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $75,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $75,500 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $77,500 resistance zone. BTC formed a top near $78,350 and started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $76,500 level. The price dipped below the $75,500 and $75,000 levels. A low was formed at $73,637 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,343 swing high to the $73,637 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $76,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $73,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $74,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,000 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,343 swing high to the $73,637 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,000 level. The first major support is near the $73,500 level. The next support is now near the $72,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $74,000, followed by $73,500. Major Resistance Levels – $75,500 and $76,000.

According to data from a recent on-chain evaluation, the Bitcoin mining sector is once again flashing warning signals, as a key industry health metric now hovers above historically critical levels. In this scenario, the Bitcoin price stands a chance to regain past grounds, but only if a specific pattern plays out. Bitcoin Miner Financial Stress Approaches Capitulation Levels Seen In Past Cycles  On Saturday, April 18th, MorenoDV put out a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, revealing an ongoing dynamic shift among Bitcoin miners. The relevant indicator here is the Miner Financial Health Index 7D-SMA metric, which tracks the short-term trend of miners’ overall economic condition.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell This metric combines four key factors – including hashprice (revenue per unit of computing power), block profitability, fee share, and total miner revenue. When these are measured together, it becomes apparent whether miners are operating in optimal conditions or are under severe stress. According to the crypto expert, the index currently displays a still-growing value of 27.7%, which is actually quite close to a historically relevant level (20%). Usually, when this metric falls to this critical 20% threshold, it indicates that mining conditions are becoming more difficult; that there is insufficient fee support, or that even rewards are declining. Interestingly, MorenoDV showed that historical data backs up this observation. Per the crypto pundit, sustained readings above this seen in the 2019, 2020, and  2022-2023 market cycles have aligned with the last stages of a capitulation phase — representing moments when weaker miners are forced out of the market.  Market Bottoms May Follow Miner Capitulation, Not Peak Stress Despite the apparent risks in the current cycle, the analyst explained that the situation appears to lean more towards a recovery scenario. As previously mentioned, the Financial Health Index now sits above the historically relevant 20% mark and continues to grow higher. Typically, when this recovery above 20% occurs, it serves as a telltale sign that the “forced selling phase” is being swallowed up. MorenoDV pointed out that this is often because marginal players must have exited; network conditions have become stable — thus, the remaining miners are working in more optimal economic conditions.  The crypto expert further noted that this transition often coincides with the exhaustion of bearish momentum in the Bitcoin price. Hence, if the Miner Financial Health Index is indeed transitioning, it might be important to keep an eye out for further recovery of the index.  As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $75,829, reflecting an almost 2% price decline since the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Data Turns Cautious: Supply Rises, But SOPR Stays Below 1.0 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView