THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone.  The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685.  With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing.  In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area.  Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A crypto analyst has pinpointed critical price levels from past cycles on the Bitcoin chart that could determine the cryptocurrency’s next moves in this cycle. He has highlighted Bitcoin’s former all-time high target of $65,000 and a distinct 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58,000 as key levels to watch.  Bitcoin’s 200W SMA Highlighted As Key Watch Zone Crypto analyst VirtualBacon has taken to X to share new technical chart analysis, outlining two critical Bitcoin price levels he believes investors and traders should watch as the cryptocurrency continues its downward slide. Elaborating further in a video, VirtualBacon pointed to $65,000 and $58,000 as the zones worth paying attention to for anyone seeking a good buy opportunity in the current market environment.  Related Reading: Elliot Wave Theory Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $40,000, But The End Game Will Shock You VirtualBacon highlighted $58,000 as his most closely watched level, where the 200W SMA currently resides. The analyst described this indicator as one of the most consistently reliable buying zones in Bitcoin’s history, citing a track record spanning multiple market cycles.   He noted that during the 2015 bear market, Bitcoin’s price touched the 200W SMA four times without ever closing below it on a weekly candle. In 2018, the 200W SMA marked the absolute bottom of that cycle’s sell-off. The COVID-19 crash of 2020 also found support precisely at this same level. The one exception came in June 2022, when the price briefly wicked below the average before consolidating, then declined further by 25% following the collapse of FTX later that year.  VirtualBacon acknowledged the 2022 breakdown but emphasized that the 200W SMA near $58,000 remains a highly significant level, given how consistently it has served as a floor throughout Bitcoin’s history. In his view, the $58,000 level represents an area where long-term investors have historically stepped in, often accumulating at the bottom ahead of a strong price rally.  Analyst Marks Former Bitcoin ATH As Buying Opportunity In his analysis, VirtualBacon identified $65,000 as the first level to watch, which corresponds to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 bull cycle. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has already reached this area in the current cycle, arguing that, historically, former ATHs often become meaningful support when price revisits them. For investors who agree with this thesis, the analyst has suggested considering $65,000 as a potentially reasonable entry point into the market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Notably, VirtualBacon’s Bitcoin analysis comes at a time when sentiment across the crypto market remains fragile, with retail investors unsure whether the decline in the BTC price signals a strategic buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper pullback.  Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways trading has also done little to restore confidence, instead fueling fear among market participants. Earlier this week, the cryptocurrency briefly fell below $64,000 after reports emerged about the US and Israel airstrikes on Iran. The cryptocurrency has since rebounded above $70,000, marking a 24-hour increase of more than 8%. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have often followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes those repeating structures may already be pointing toward the next major bottom. This is the foundational principle behind why Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: trade an asset long enough, and it begins to show a pattern memory. Right now, that memory is speaking. And it’s pointing to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000. Pattern Memory And Bitcoin’s Retracement History A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s retracement behavior could determine where the current cycle eventually stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with long trading histories tend to repeat certain behavioral patterns across cycles.  Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Pattern memory shows that Bitcoin’s previous market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous peak. These levels have always acted as areas where the Bitcoin price finally found a durable bottom before beginning a new bull phase. During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin ultimately formed its bottom near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, once again reaching the 0.86 retracement low before a new accumulation phase began. However, the 2021 market cycle bottom occurred slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where Is The Next Real Bottom? If October 2025 was the true cycle high for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M timeframe suggests, then history gives us a roadmap for where price is likely headed before the next major bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle produces a range where Bitcoin may eventually bottom if history repeats. Mapping the current cycle’s Fibonacci retracement from the cycle low to the October 2025 high reveals three critical zones. The 0.618 sits at approximately $57,000-$58,000, which also aligns closely with the Weekly 200 Moving Average. However, this level alone may not represent the final low, based on how previous cycles behaved. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Instead, deeper retracement levels appear more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacements come into play. The 0.786 retracement level sits near $39,000 and coincides with the monthly 100-moving average. Beneath that, the 0.86 retracement level falls around $31,000. Both levels have previously defined major cycle bottoms; therefore, Bitcoin’s next long-term low could be somewhere within the $39,000 to $31,000 range if the October 2025 peak proves to be the true cycle high. Some market commentators have floated lower downside targets, including projections that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 region. However, the pattern-memory analysis shows that such a drop would represent a complete breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s current price trajectory has left a lot to be desired, with the most concern currently being for when the digital asset will hit a bottom. There have been countless predictions since the decline began, and yet, Bitcoin remains below $70,000. Nevertheless, it has not stopped the barrage of bottom calls and price predictions. One of these was shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who took to using historical data and performance to track how low the BTC price will probably drop before reversing upward. Bitcoin Price Could Still Crash To $50,000 In the analysis , Crypto Patel pointed to previous bear markets and how far the Bitcoin price had crashed each time before recovering. The first of these was the 2018 bear market, when the Bitcoin price had crashed 85% after hitting an all-time high of $19,000. Once the crash was over and the bottom was established, though, the Bitcoin price would go on to record a 350% rally. Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Next on the list was the 2019 crash that had triggered a 70% Bitcoin crash. This was a continuation of the bear market trend that had begun back in 2018, as profit-taking was the order of the day. However, just like before, this bleed would eventually end, and what followed was a 1,500% rally that would see the Bitcoin price reach new all-time highs. It eventually peaked at $69,000 in 2021 before crashing again. Following the 2021 bull market, the year 2022 would kickstart the next bear run for the digital asset. With the collapse of crypto giants such as Celsius and the FTX crypto exchange, the Bitcoin price witnessed a 78% crash. But once again, after hitting a bottom and accumulation ramped up, the BTC price would eventually rise 750% to cross $100,000 in the next few years, and eventually hit its most recent all-time high of $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Using this trend, the crypto analyst outlines that it is possible that the Bitcoin price will drop further to $50,000, to complete a 50% price drop. However, despite the bearish prediction, Crypto Patel predicts that the BTC price is eventually headed for $220,000, which would be an over 300% increase from $50,000. Fully taking the historical performance into account, though, it shows that with each bear trend, the Bitcoin price has fallen an average of 70% each time. Using this, it is likely that the digital asset’s price will crash below $40,000, eventually finding support around $37,000, if history were to repeat itself. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have seen their netflow rise recently, a sign that selling pressure from diamond hands is easing. Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change Is Becoming Less Negative In a new post on X, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has talked about the latest trend in the behavior of Bitcoin LTHs. This cohort represents one of the two main divisions of the BTC market done on the basis of holding time and includes the investors who purchased their tokens more than 155 days ago. Related Reading: Solana’s Next Major Support Levels Sit At $50, $22, And $10: Analyst Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs with their long holding times are considered to reflect the resolute side of the sector. Though, despite the resilience of this group, its members still participate in selling during some parts of the cycle. One such phase is currently ongoing, as the chart shared by Beamish shows. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change, an indicator tracking the monthly net amount of BTC entering into or exiting out of the group’s combined balance, turned negative as the cryptocurrency’s price saw a bearish shift in the last quarter of 2025. Since then, the indicator has mostly stayed contained inside the zone, implying continued distribution from the diamond hands. From the chart, it’s apparent that the selloff only deepened as BTC crashed to its low around $60,000 last month, implying that the volatility scared even some of the more resolute hands into parting with their tokens. Since the negative peak in the indicator coinciding with the price lows, however, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has been climbing back up. Today, its value is still red, suggesting continued selling pressure on the monthly timeframe, although the degree of it is notably lower. “After months of sustained net selling, LTH net position change is now easing, suggesting that selling pressure from seasoned holders is moderating as BTC stabilizes,” noted the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change will continue to improve in the near future or if the diamond hands aren’t done selling yet. Related Reading: XRP Triangle Could Point To Support Between $0.60 And $0.90 In some other news, each attempt from the cryptocurrency at the $70,000 level has been met with profit-taking recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted in an X post. As is visible in the graph, the 12-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss spiked above $5 million per hour as BTC rallied on Monday. The metric crossing this threshold also capped out previous recovery attempts from the asset during the past month. “The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure,” said Glassnode. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a minor retrace to $68,500 since the Monday high. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

MARA Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies in the world, has signaled a major shift in strategy that could have significant implications for the broader BTC market.  In a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company disclosed an update to its treasury policy that would allow it to sell Bitcoin from its balance sheet — a notable departure from its long-standing commitment to holding the asset as a long-term investment. Bitcoin Miner MARA May Sell Reserves Under the new policy, MARA is no longer strictly committed to retaining all of the Bitcoin it mines. Instead, it has opened the door to potentially liquidating part or even all of its holdings if circumstances require it. MARA currently holds 53,822 BTC, making it the second-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net.  At current market prices, the company’s reserves are valued at approximately $3.59 billion. Only Michael Saylor’s Strategy — formerly known as MicroStrategy — holds more, with over 720,000 BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge In its filing, MARA acknowledged that prolonged weakness in Bitcoin’s price could materially affect its financial position. If the price remains depressed or declines further, the value of its holdings could fall significantly, weighing on its balance sheet and liquidity.  Because Bitcoin mining represents the company’s primary source of revenue, extended price declines could make it increasingly difficult to cover operational costs, meet debt obligations, or fund strategic initiatives. The company also pointed to upcoming financial obligations, including the potential need to repurchase outstanding convertible senior notes in 2027. Meeting such obligations would require substantial cash resources.  Under those circumstances — including liquidity pressures or adverse market conditions — MARA said it may decide to sell a portion or the entirety of its Bitcoin reserves. Potential ‘Supply Bomb’ Looms  Market analyst Shanaka Anslem offered a detailed breakdown of the company’s current challenges. According to Anslem, MARA’s production cost now stands at approximately $87,000 per Bitcoin, while the asset is trading around $66,690.  That gap means the company is effectively losing money on each block it mines. At the same time, hashprice — a key measure of mining profitability — has dropped to a record low of $35 per petahash. Anslem also highlighted MARA’s 2025 open-market purchases. During that year, the company acquired 4,267 BTC at an average price of $111,034 per coin. With current prices significantly lower, those purchases are now roughly 38% underwater.  Related Reading: CME Capitalizes On ADA, XLM, LINK In Crypto Strategy: Key Figures Exposed Looking ahead, Anslem suggested that blockchain data will provide critical clues about whether MARA’s policy shift translates into actual selling.  If the company’s wallets show no meaningful outflows over the next 90 days, he argued, the announcement may amount to little more than optional flexibility, and the perceived supply overhang could prove illusory.  However, if substantial transfers begin — particularly in a market environment characterized by a Fear and Greed Index reading of 15 and Bitcoin already down 22% year-to-date — the psychological and price impact could be significant. In that scenario, other miners with large treasuries might also come under scrutiny, creating what he described as a potential “supply bomb” effect. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,500 but failed at $70,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $68,000 support. The price is trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,000 and $66,550 levels. Bitcoin Price Corrects Lower From $70,000 Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,400 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,100, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below $68,000, and the price tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,400, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $69,550 level. A close above the $69,550 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,850 and $71,200. Downside Break In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,400 level. The first major support is near the $66,550 level. The next support is now near the $65,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,700 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,400, followed by $66,550. Major Resistance Levels – $68,800 and $70,000.

Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened volatility as escalating conflicts in the Middle East inject fresh uncertainty into global markets. Risk assets have reacted unevenly, with crypto trading as a real-time barometer of macro stress while traditional markets intermittently close or gap. Price swings have become sharper, liquidity thinner, and short-term positioning more defensive as participants reassess exposure amid geopolitical risk. Related Reading: Bloodbath Or Buy-Zone? Bitcoin’s $66K Stagnation Hits The 25% Loss Threshold Historically Tied To Market Bottoms Despite this challenging backdrop, on-chain data presents a more nuanced picture. According to analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin netflow dynamics suggest that accumulation may be quietly unfolding beneath the surface. Exchange netflows — which measure the balance between coins moving onto and off trading platforms — are often a leading indicator of investor intent. Sustained outflows typically imply that participants are withdrawing assets into cold storage or long-term custody, reducing immediately available sell-side supply. In recent sessions, netflow patterns have tilted toward outflows rather than aggressive inflows, even as headlines intensified. This divergence between price uncertainty and subdued exchange deposits hints at restrained distribution behavior. Sustained Exchange Outflows Signal Quiet Accumulation Phase The exchange-level data adds a concrete dimension to the accumulation thesis. On Binance — which custodies roughly 665,000 BTC, or about 25% of total exchange reserves — netflows have flipped decisively negative since February 21. Outflows have dominated on most trading days, producing a cumulative withdrawal of approximately 13,500 BTC. A single session accounted for 3,848 BTC leaving the platform, a meaningful movement in the context of tightening liquidity. Importantly, this pattern is not isolated. Aggregated across major exchanges, netflows have remained negative for seven consecutive days. Such persistence reduces the probability of statistical noise and instead suggests coordinated positioning behavior. When coins exit exchanges, they typically move into cold storage or long-term custody solutions, mechanically reducing the immediately tradable supply. This shift is occurring after an approximate 50% correction from cycle highs. Historically, deep retracements tend to recalibrate risk-reward perceptions. The current price zone appears to be viewed by some participants as strategically attractive rather than structurally broken. That said, accumulation does not guarantee immediate upside. In the short term, sustained outflows can underpin range-bound conditions as supply tightens, but demand remains measured. Whether this evolves into expansion depends on the durability of inflows into spot markets. Related Reading: The $650M Wave: Why XRP’s Record Inflow To Binance Signals A Massive Institutional Retreat Bitcoin Compresses Below Key Averages as $69K Caps Upside Attempts On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains locked in a corrective structure following the sharp early-February breakdown. Price is consolidating around the $66,800 region, but the broader short-term trend remains tilted to the downside. BTC continues to trade below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward — a configuration that confirms persistent bearish pressure. The $68,000–$69,000 zone is acting as immediate resistance, aligning with the 100-period moving average (green). Multiple attempts to reclaim this level have failed, reinforcing it as a supply area. Above that, the 200-period moving average (red), currently near the low-$70Ks, represents a stronger structural ceiling. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand On the downside, the $63,000–$64,000 region remains key support. Previous liquidity wicks into that area, triggering sharp rebounds, suggesting the presence of reactive buyers. However, the pattern of lower highs within the range indicates that upside momentum lacks conviction. Volume has contracted compared to the breakdown phase, signaling equilibrium rather than accumulation. The market is compressing within a narrowing band, often a precursor to expansion. A decisive 4-hour close above $69K would challenge the bearish bias. Conversely, a clean break below $63K would likely reopen downside toward the next liquidity pocket. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin market appears to be entering a decisive holding phase, with on-chain data signaling a steady contraction in active supply.  Rather than aggressive selling or speculative rotation, a growing portion of circulating BTC is moving into long-term storage, reducing the amount readily available for trading. This tightening liquidity dynamic reflects rising investor conviction, as holders choose accumulation over distribution. How Volatility Compression Tightens Bitcoin’s Range In a recent post on X, Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, noted that the Bitcoin 30-Day active supply has dropped sharply in recent weeks, which is a clear signal that fewer BTC have moved across the network over the past month. Due to this BTC drop, active participation has decreased, and the market has become quieter, with fewer units changing hands in the short to medium term. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Turbulent Ride: How BTC’s Price Has Fared With Escalating Mid-East Conflicts Wedson explains that when this 30-day active supply indicator spikes higher, it typically reflects that short-term holders and retail investors are experiencing strong emotions. The high peaks in the 30-day active supply often coincide with strong retail moments driven by euphoria or panic. This is when more coins return to circulation, whether driven by FOMO during rallies or capitulation during sharp corrections. Thus, when the indicator declines downward, it generally signals the volatility compression, low supply rotation, and market participants appear more patient. In simple terms, the high 30-day active supply would show emotion, rotation, and active retail engagement.  Meanwhile, the low 30-day active supply would show apathy, holding behavior, and tighter market structural conditions. This 30-day active supply is an excellent metric for capturing the market’s monthly behavioral pulse. BTC Enters A Decision Level With Statistical Significance The Bitcoin price action is approaching its next pivot on the 3rd, a level that has historically produced meaningful reactions. According to a crypto trader known as LP on X, reviewing the last eight pivot occurrences, five have resulted in local lows. Statistically, that move gives the current Low-Time Frame (LTF) pivot a slight tendency to form a bottom, but the context matters. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Explodes Higher, $70K Level Faces Fresh Bullish Assault However, if the price sells off into a pivot, the probability of it acting as the local low increases. Then, if the price rallies into the pivot, the odds would shift toward marking a local high. Over the past several days, the price has been volatile but generally has been grinding higher into the upcoming pivot, slightly increasing the risk of a level that could form a high. Historically, reactions from this pivot have led to moves in the 7% and 9% range, suggesting that whichever direction is confirmed could result in a meaningful expansion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

A technical analyst known as ‘V’ has shared a striking Elliott Wave Theory-based Bitcoin price outlook on X that he believes most market participants are completely overlooking. The chart, plotted on Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe, outlines a multi-year roadmap that could first subject the cryptocurrency to significant downside pressure, potentially triggering a price crash to $40,000 before setting the stage for an explosive rally that could shock investors and traders.   Elliott Wave Pattern Points to $40,000 Bitcoin Price Dip V’s analysis on X begins by identifying a completed five-wave structure that carried Bitcoin from its 2022 lows to an early 2025 peak around $109,354. Those waves, clearly labeled 1 through 5 on the chart, mark the end of Bitcoin’s first major impulse move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time From here, V projects that Bitcoin could now enter a Wave 2 correction, which could take the form of a classic ABC zigzag pattern. In this projected scenario, Wave A is forecasted to bottom somewhere between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, triggering a Bitcoin price decline to the $51,000 to $62,000 range.  Following this, Wave B is expected to see a small relief bounce, pushing Bitcoin back up toward the 100% to 132% extension zone between $109,354 to $120,594 on the chart. Once this bounce occurs, V predicts a final downside target in Wave C. He forecasts that the Bitcoin price could decline to the $51,336 to $35,564 range, representing a massive 55% to 69% decrease from the previous bounce area.  Notably, V has stated that Bitcoin’s projected move to its final bearish target could catch the majority of investors and traders completely off guard. This is because a relief rally back towards six figures in Wave B would likely restore investor confidence and draw buyers back in, only for the market to decline all over again to an even steeper target. In other words, it could be a bull trap. The Bitcoin End Game That Could Shock Investors Following the anticipated completion of the Wave 2 correction, V predicts the onset of Wave 3, a phase that could trigger a powerful bullish reversal for Bitcoin. The chart illustrates a projected rally, highlighted by a rising arrow. Bitcoin is expected to retest and reclaim its previous resistance level around $109,354, marking a potential gain of more than 207% from its projected Wave C bottom around $35,564.  Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Once BTC crosses this resistance with strong momentum, the chart projects a stronger upward push toward a shocking $150,000 target. Notably, the last time Bitcoin was remotely close to this level was in October 2025, when its price skyrocketed to new all-time highs above $126,000. If the V’s Elliott Wave forecast plays out as expected, it would mark a new historic ATH for BTC. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is tightening its range at a critical support zone, with price action compressing after weeks of sideways movement. As volatility contracts and momentum build beneath key resistance, the market appears to be preparing for a decisive breakout. With major support holding for now, the stage is set for a significant move.  Consolidation Zone Signals Strategic Accumulation Crypto analyst Donald Dean highlights that Bitcoin is currently in a prime position for consolidation and accumulation. Currently, price action continues to respect a crucial support trendline, with steady buying activity occurring near the $69,000 mark. This persistent behavior suggests the market is building a solid floor, allowing investors to accumulate positions before the next significant move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows From a technical perspective, this $69,000 zone represents a formidable area of support and a retest of the major breakout in 2024. Dean views this phase as a healthy development for the long-term trajectory of the asset. Once the multi-year support is confirmed, Bitcoin would essentially create a launchpad that will serve as the base for a sustained move toward higher valuations. Looking at the weekly chart, Dean identifies specific upside targets based on volume and Fibonacci extensions. The first objective is the $90,000 volume shelf, which acts as a magnet for price. Beyond that, the Golden Ratio (1.618 extension) suggests a target of $102,000. Once these levels are cleared, the next major challenge involves a move to $122,000, which would represent a 2x increase from the previous low-to-high cycle. However, the long-term outlook remains even more ambitious if the bullish momentum persists. Furthermore, Dean notes that the subsequent Golden Ratio at the 2.618 extension places the target at approximately $155,000. While these figures represent significant milestones, the current focus remains on the successful defense of the $69,000 level to validate the structural integrity of the ongoing bull market. Weeks Of Sideways Movement, No Clear Bitcoin Breakout In a recent update, Crypto Candy emphasized that Bitcoin remains stuck in an extended consolidation phase, trading within the $60,000 to $70,000 range for weeks. Despite multiple attempts to break out, the price continues to rotate within this zone, signaling ongoing indecision between buyers and sellers. Related Reading: No Rebound For Bitcoin Yet — Short-Term BTC Holders Continue Holding At A Loss After briefly dipping toward the $62,000 area, BTC once again rebounded toward $70,000. However, this rebound does not alter the broader range structure. Without a decisive breakout, these moves are viewed as internal rotations rather than the start of a sustained trend.  For now, Crypto Candy maintains a bearish bias unless Bitcoin can convincingly flip the $71,000–$72,000 resistance zone into support. As long as the price stays below that threshold, the expectation remains for another leg down toward $61,000 or potentially lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has returned to an extreme technical zone that has historically marked major cycle bottoms for the BTC price. According to crypto analyst @DurdenBTC, the Harmonic Oscillator has now printed its lowest possible reading, a level that previously preceded outsized one-year gains. The signal raises a direct question: Does history imply that Bitcoin is positioned to double from here? Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator Signals BTC Price Could More Than Double A chart shared by the analyst highlights a striking signal for Bitcoin, showing the Harmonic Oscillator at -100, the lowest point on its long-term decaying price range, which spans from -100 to +100. This “Capitulation” zone marks periods when BTC trades far below its harmonic center and historical equilibrium, signaling extreme market pessimism. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Historically, every time the oscillator has hit this level—late 2011, early 2015, late 2018, March 2020, and late 2022—Bitcoin reached major cycle lows before entering strong upward trends. The chart quantifies this pattern, showing a median one-year return of +135% from the capitulation zone, with a 100% success rate across all recorded signals. For traders, this suggests that the BTC price could more than double over the next year if history repeats itself. The chart also contrasts other zones in the oscillator, illustrating the model’s cyclical reliability: the “Undervalued” zone historically produced +77% median returns, “Equilibrium” and “Overheated” zones delivered smaller gains, and the “Euphoria” band at the top often led to negative returns. In essence, the chart emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current capitulation reading may mark a rare opportunity for a major rally. By connecting extreme market lows with historically consistent gains, the oscillator provides traders a clear framework for anticipating BTC’s next potential cycle. Bearish Trend Model Meets A Generational Buy Signal Although the oscillator has a strong historical record, @DurdenBTC notes that his broader trend system currently leans bearish. This creates a tension between momentum-based trend signals and the oscillator, which indicates extreme undervaluation. The oscillator works on a damped harmonic model, where price moves around a rising long-term center line while volatility gradually compresses. Related Reading: XRP Daily Liquidity Is Pointing To A Rally To $4, Analyst Explains What’s Going On The chart shows Bitcoin trading below its harmonic center and fair value, with a negative deviation reinforcing the capitulation signal. A 90-day inset highlights a sharp drop to this lower boundary. Meanwhile, the two-year fair value estimate remains well above the current price, showing a significant gap between current levels and the modeled equilibrium. The oscillator also shows that cycle energy has reset to lower levels, similar to previous macro bottoms. Historically, these resets marked the shift from decline into accumulation phases. This does not mean price will immediately reverse, but statistically, readings like this have marked generational buying opportunities. While the analyst maintains a cautious stance aligned with the bearish trend, the -100 oscillator reading represents one of the most asymmetric setups in Bitcoin’s cycle history. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

After the Bitcoin price recovered from the flush to $63,000 over the last week, expectations are that the uptrend could continue. This has sparked predictions for the next rally and that the BTC price could move above $70,000 as a result of this. However, one analyst has thrown a wrench in this move, predicting that there could be another crash coming. This could lead to the final bottom, but suggests that much lower prices are coming first. The Ending Diagonal That Suggests Bitcoin Is Headed Downward EduwaveTrading posted an analysis on the TradingView website that paints a rather bearish picture for the Bitcoin price, at least in the short term. This prediction has to do with Bitcoin not reaching the previous swing low, and this could mean that there is another wave coming to help it hit that swing low. Related Reading: How High Will The Dogecoin Price Be If Bitcoin Reaches $200,000? As a result of the swing low not being hit, the crypto analyst suggests that Bitcoin could have dropped into an expanding ending diagonal pattern. This pattern, despite the recovery, points to another possible downward move. This move would be the start of a deeper downtrend that sends it to new yearly lows. The swing low target here lies just above $62,000 and could be a magnet for the price at this point. If the expanding ending diagonal pattern plays out, it means there is one more flush left. Once the swing low is broken, the analyst points out that Bitcoin could drop further below $59,000 before finding support again. Given this pattern, the crypto analyst suggests that investors may want to wait for this next flush to play out before doing anything. Only then would it be ‘safe’ to enter into Bitcoin, in order to avoid further losses. BTC Is Still Very Bearish Just like EduwaveTrading, another crypto analyst, Behdark, has predicted that Bitcoin will see another crash. This time around, the analyst points to the takeout on the downtrend lined the fact that the momentum has been dropping ahead, suggesting that Bitcoin is still very bearish. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved If the sellers continue to hold strong, then the crypto analyst sees Bitcoin falling toward $61,000, which coincides with the swing low that EduwaveTrading points out. Both of these analyses together say that it’s highly likely that the BTC price sees a strong move downward before establishing enough support to continue upward again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has wrapped up February with its fifth straight monthly loss, marking only the second time in its history that the leading cryptocurrency has printed five consecutive red candles on the monthly chart.  Upside Call Options Surge The latest decline saw Bitcoin fall to around $63,000 last Saturday, representing a roughly 15% drop for the month of February. However, the start of March has brought a modest rebound.  The asset opened the first week of the month at $68,600, posting gains of just over 3% as it attempts to reclaim the $70,000 level, which has continuously acted as a significant resistance barrier over the past several weeks. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Slips Toward Critical Support, Breakdown Threat Emerges Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market participants appear relatively composed. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said traders do not anticipate the Iran conflict causing major economic disruption.  In a note to Bloomberg, Thielen said that demand for upside Bitcoin call options has increased in recent days, suggesting that some investors are positioning for a potential rally ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The current setup has also reignited historical comparisons. The last time Bitcoin experienced a similar string of red monthly candles was during the 2018–2019 bear market.  In that earlier cycle, the asset went on to print six consecutive monthly losses. What followed was a sharp reversal: five straight green candles and a 308% surge, with Bitcoin climbing from roughly $3,400 to $14,000. Market Watchers Split On Bitcoin Outlook Market expert Ash Crypto recently highlighted this pattern on social media, suggesting that if history were to repeat, Bitcoin could be approaching a cyclical bottom after its fifth red month.  A comparable 300% advance from current trading levels would imply a potential move toward $272,000. Such a projection, however, depends on whether the recent lows ultimately prove to be the final bottom of this correction. Related Reading: XRP Faces $650 Million Sell Risk As US-Iran Conflict Sparks Risk-Off Move Not all analysts are convinced that the downside is over. Technical analyst Virtual Bacon has outlined the possibility of further retracement before a sustained recovery can be expected.  He identified $65,000—previously an all-time high—as the first key level, noting that the price has already revisited that zone. For those who subscribe to the thesis that former highs often turn into support, he suggested that the opportunity may already be present. A deeper pullback, in his view, could bring Bitcoin toward $58,000, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) currently sits. Historically, that long-term indicator has played a critical role in defining market bottoms.  It helped contain the sharp selloff during the 2020 COVID-19 crash, marked the absolute low in 2018, and was tested multiple times in 2015 without ever closing below it every week.  Because of this track record, the 200-week moving average has been widely regarded as one of the most reliable long-term accumulation zones in Bitcoin’s history. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,000 but failed at $70,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above $69,200. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,500 support. The price is trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,400 and $67,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Fails At $70,000 Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $65,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $66,500 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,000 resistance. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,100, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,500 level. A close above the $69,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,850 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $70,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,000 level. The first major support is near the $67,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. The next support is now near the $65,650 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $64,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $67,500. Major Resistance Levels – $69,200 and $70,000.

Crypto Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs), led by Bitcoin (BTC) funds, have broken their one-month negative streak after recording significant inflows over the last week, signaling renewed demand for the digital asset-based investment products amid broader market weakness and geopolitical tensions. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Crypto Funds Break Out Of Multi-Week Bleeding In its latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, CoinShares revealed that crypto investment products recorded around $1 billion in inflows during the last week, breaking out of the multi-billion-dollar outflow streak that began mid-January with no notable outflows. Crypto-based funds saw cumulative outflows of $4 billion during the previous five weeks, driven by market weakness and overall negative sentiment. Notably, the US market accounted for most of the negative net flows, while Bitcoin ETPs showed the weakest performance among major cryptocurrencies, recording over $3.80 billion in outflows since January 23. Now, funds based on the flagship cryptocurrency showed the strongest performance, with over $881 million in inflows, according to CoinShares’ data. Although the $3.7 million in inflows into short Bitcoin investment products highlights that the opinion remains polarized, the report noted. Ethereum investment products recorded their strongest week since mid-January, registering inflows totaling $117 million. Despite this, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap remain in a net outflow position Year-to-Date (YTD). Conversely, Solana funds saw $53.8 million in inflows last week and $156 million in inflows YTD. In addition, the US accounted for most inflows, with $957 million, while Canada, Germany, and Switzerland saw continued inflows of $34.1 million, $31.7 million, and $28.4 million, respectively. “From a macro standpoint, it is difficult to attribute the shift in sentiment to a single catalyst. However, prior price weakness, a break below key technical levels, and renewed accumulation by large Bitcoin holders appear to have contributed to the reversal,” explained James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. “At a more anecdotal level, recent client discussions have been almost entirely focused on identifying entry points rather than reducing exposure to the asset class,” he continued. Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands Amid last week’s rebound, Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, highlighted US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, who have “largely displayed diamond hands” during the market correction and negative sentiment. The ETF expert observed that Bitcoin funds’ cumulative $6.5 billion in outflows since the October 10 crash were a “drop in the bucket” compared to the $55 billion in cumulative total net inflows that the category has seen since its January 2024 debut. As reported by NewsBTC, Geraci stressed that while these major drawdowns are “a walk in the park for long-time BTC investors,” newer ETF investors also appear unfazed by the recent market conditions and are “apparently buying the dip.” Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Similarly, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas discusses the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two years, affirming, “As an ETF watcher, you know just how absurd this strength amid a 50% drawdown.” He stated that the funds’ overall performance is “the real story,” rather than the $6 billion that has come out during the latest market downturn, which he concluded was normal for most assets. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,582, a 2.2% decline on the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has remained in a consolidation phase since its early February breakdown below the $70,000 threshold, oscillating around the mid-$60K region without establishing a clear directional bias. The loss of $70K marked a structural shift in short-term momentum, transitioning the market from trend continuation to range-bound stabilization. While volatility has moderated, underlying stress signals suggest that the correction may not be fully resolved. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape According to a recent report by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Short-Term Holders (STH) are still carrying substantial unrealized losses. With Bitcoin trading near $66,000, this cohort’s average unrealized loss stands at approximately 26.3%. Historically, periods in which STH losses exceed 25% tend to coincide with advanced phases of bear markets rather than early corrective pullbacks. In previous cycles, these losses have occasionally expanded toward 40% during capitulation events before a durable bottom formed. The current reading, therefore, places the market in a zone of elevated psychological pressure. Short-term participants, who are typically more reactive to price fluctuations, remain underwater, increasing the probability of volatility spikes if key levels fail. Short-Term Holder Losses Signal Late-Stage Stress and Strategic Accumulation Zones The current configuration of Short-Term Holder positioning reflects a classic late-correction dynamic. When STH cohorts begin to carry meaningful unrealized losses — particularly above the 25% threshold — market psychology shifts from optimism to stress. Historically, these zones have coincided with attractive long-term accumulation windows, not because downside risk disappears, but because forced selling pressure gradually exhausts itself. Long-term investors deploying systematic DCA strategies have often benefited from entering during these compressed conditions. The relationship between STH profitability and trend development is equally instructive. Sustained bullish expansions typically begin once the average unrealized profit of STH reclaims positive territory. That shift signals renewed structural demand strong enough to lift recent buyers back into profit. However, excessive profitability can also destabilize trends. In this cycle, readings near 20% average profit have coincided with overheated conditions and subsequent pullbacks, as profit-taking accelerates. At present, with STH deeply underwater, the broader structure remains bearish from a cyclical standpoint. Momentum has not yet transitioned into expansion. Yet paradoxically, these stress phases often represent asymmetric positioning opportunities. The key distinction lies in timeframe: tactically fragile in the short term, but strategically constructive for disciplined capital deployment. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Bitcoin Compresses Below Moving Averages as $62K–$69K Range Tightens On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation band around the $66,000 level after the sharp early-February breakdown. The structure is clearly corrective: price is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. This alignment confirms short-term bearish momentum, even as volatility compresses. Repeated attempts to reclaim the 100-period moving average (green) have failed, reinforcing it as dynamic resistance near the $68,000–$69,000 zone. Meanwhile, the 200-period average (red), positioned higher around the low-$70Ks, marks a broader trend ceiling. As long as price remains beneath these levels, upside attempts are likely to encounter supply. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap On the downside, the $62,000–$63,000 region continues to act as horizontal support. The sharp wick earlier in February suggests aggressive liquidation-driven selling into that area, followed by a reflex bounce. However, subsequent rebounds have printed lower highs, indicating that buyers lack follow-through. Volume has tapered off compared to the breakdown phase, suggesting temporary equilibrium rather than accumulation. The current compression reflects indecision, not strength. A decisive 4-hour close above $69K would challenge the bearish structure, while a loss of $62K would likely trigger renewed downside expansion. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plunged sharply over the weekend as missiles flew across the Middle East, exposing just how quickly geopolitical crises can send shockwaves through the financial markets. A joint US and Israel strike on Iran triggered a violent selloff that wiped out billions of dollars from the crypto market in a matter of hours. Fresh reports now indicate that Bitcoin and Ethereum are beginning to recover. Still, with geopolitical tensions continuing to escalate, it remains uncertain whether this renewed momentum can be sustained.  Bitcoin Price Recovers After US-Israel War Fueled Crash Geopolitical shockwaves rattled global financial markets this past weekend as a joint US and Israeli military operation against Iran sent Bitcoin into a sharp but brief decline, wiping out millions of dollars in long positions before a partial recovery took hold. Notably, BTC plummeted to nearly $63,000 overnight following the coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows Within 45 minutes of Israel launching its assault, Bitcoin shed $2,500 in value, while more than $200 million worth of long positions were liquidated in just one hour. The broader crypto market saw roughly $72 billion wiped out amid the chaos. The sell-off was swift and severe, with major exchange players including Binance, Coinbase, and trading firm Winternute offloading more than $3.5 billion in Bitcoin within a 20-minute window. This further added downward pressure to the already declining and volatile market. Despite the carnage, Bitcoin has since climbed back above $66,000, according to CoinMarketCap data, though volatility remains elevated as the Middle East conflict shows no signs of immediate resolution.  Market analysts were quick to explain the technical reasons behind BTC’s price decline. One expert noted that Bitcoin did not crash for no reason. She explained that because it was the most accessible and highest volume asset that trades around the clock, it was significantly exposed to weekend fear and panic selling compared to other major asset classes.  Ethereum Price Rebounds After Massive Sell-Off Ethereum also took a hit alongside Bitcoin following news of the US-Israel war. ETH dropped roughly 10% within just one hour of the news breaking, falling below $1,900 and erasing all the gains it had made when it briefly touched $2,000 last week. At its lowest point, Ethereum fell to around $1,850 before rebounding back above $1,950.  Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved Notably, the crash triggered sharp declines in Ethereum derivatives markets, with millions of dollars in liquidations. A large percentage of those liquidations came from long positions, suggesting that traders who had bet on Ethereum rising were hit the hardest.  In the broader context, the Ethereum price was already experiencing a downturn, meaning the geopolitical shock had compounded an already painful downtrend for ETH holders. In addition to Ethereum, other altcoins, such as XRP, saw major sell-offs as geopolitical tensions rose. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

An important long-term technical signal is still flashing bullish as Bitcoin approaches an important point on the higher timeframe charts. According to CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTCUSD has held support and is yet to display an active sell signal, even with recent market dynamics leading to contention as to whether the cycle has flipped bearish. His chart highlighted an interesting development on the one-month timeframe, where the structure has not yet transitioned into a confirmed sell. Monthly SuperTrend Still In Buy Mode In his post on X, Severino focused on the Bitcoin BTCUSD 1M chart and noted that the SuperTrend indicator has held support and kept its active buy signal. The monthly timeframe is particularly significant because it filters out short-term noise and shows a clear view of the broader cycle. Related Reading: XRP Daily Liquidity Is Pointing To A Rally To $4, Analyst Explains What’s Going On The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, with the SuperTrend level sitting just above $66,400. However, the indicator is still printing green on the monthly timeframe, which means that the macro trend has not flipped bearish. A monthly close below the SuperTrend line is what has always confirmed a sell signal, and that has not happened. The visual structure in the chart also shows how previous bear markets were characterized by a clear transition from green to red on the SuperTrend. At present, that transition has not occurred. Instead, the Bitcoin price is consolidating around the SuperTrend support. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @TonySeverinoCMT On X Is The Bottom Close Or Is More Patience Needed? Severino added an important caveat. According to him, almost all bear markets initially hold at support for a month or three before eventually turning into a sell signal. That observation points out that simply holding support does not automatically invalidate bearish risk. Although the analyst acknowledged that bear markets can linger at support before failing, he noted that the bottom is usually close after such behavior.  Related Reading: 5 Monthly Red Candles: How XRP Is About To Create A Historical Losing Streak Bitcoin ended February 14.8% below its monthly open, but it has managed to hold above the SuperTrend. That said, a confirmed monthly breakdown below the SuperTrend would materially change the outlook. Until that happens, the indicator is demonstrating that Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure. Severino later shared another post discussing a separate analysis based on the quarterly Ichimoku indicator. In that analysis, he stated that historical evidence and data suggest Bitcoin could fall another 38% to 66% from current levels. A decline of that magnitude would imply a Bitcoin bear market bottom anywhere from $40,000 to $25,000. Severino followed up in another post with a comment saying, “Sell, says the SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,000, down by 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The monthly structure has not fully broken, but the warnings indicate that the cryptocurrency may not be out of danger just yet. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Pure has indicated that the blood moon could be having an impact on the trajectory of the Bitcoin price. The analyst drew attention to historical trends, suggesting this might be the case and that a rally above $100,000 may be on the cards.  A Bitcoin Price Rally Above $100,000 May Be On The Cards In an X post, Pure drew attention to a potential correlation between the Blood Moons over the last 12 years and the Bitcoin price action. Based on this, the analyst’s chart suggested that BTC could still rally above $100,000 soon enough, potentially reaching the current all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. The chart also showed that there had typically been at least three Blood Moons in each of the past three BTC cycles.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Just Ramped Up Into The Billions Again, Is It Time To Get Back In? The third Blood Moon in each of those past cycles had notably marked a bottom for the Bitcoin price, with the leading crypto reaching new highs afterward. Now, a third Blood Moon is set to occur in this cycle after the ones that occurred on March 14 and September 7 last year. As such, there is the possibility that BTC could bottom again if history were to repeat itself.  Pure also noted that the next Blood Moon after tomorrow will occur after three years, indicating that it is the Blood Moon that could mark the bottom since none other is going to happen in this cycle. The analyst also admitted that this could mean that the max pain is about to end with a potential bullish reversal on the horizon for the Bitcoin price.  BTC Still In A Bear Market Regardless Of A Relief Bounce Market expert Benjamin Cowen reiterated that BTC is still in a bear market, though a relief bounce may be on the cards amid U.S.-Iran tensions. In an X post, Cowen noted that risk assets often sell off, then bounce as major conflicts begin. If a rally for the Bitcoin price occurs, the expert noted that it will likely result in a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows Cowen also noted that bear markets tend to take a while to play out. His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price bounced after the war between Russia and Ukraine began in 2022, but formed a lower high, leading to a deeper long-term decline before it bottomed. Notably, BTC bottomed year-end 2022 back then, which also coincides with Cowen’s prediction that BTC may bottom in the fourth quarter of this year.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $66,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin saw its price crash toward $60,000 last week, and naturally, investor sentiment took a plunge with it. Now, while the sentiment has been in a decline for the better part of five months, what stands out this time is how low the score on the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has gotten. In fact, the sentiment surrounding the crypto market has dropped so low that it has gotten to a point that has only been hit twice in the history of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Crashes To 9 Since hitting its all-time high of $126,000 back in August 2025, the sentiment has been ping-ponging, but now, it seems to have determined a direction. The trend has been mainly downward, and then last week, the index dropped to a low of 9. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP’s $15 Target Has Still Not Changed – Here’s Why The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index tracks the sentiment across the market using a number of factors, such as social sentiment and volume, among others. Thus, it gives a rather comprehensive view of how investors are feeling toward the market. The index ranges from 1-100, with 100-75 being Extreme Greed, 74-54 being Greed, 53-47 being Neutral, 46-26 being Fear, and 25-1 being Extreme Fear. Presently, the market is sitting in Extreme Fear, which means that investors are wary of getting into the market. More importantly, though, the last two times that the market sentiment was this low were the 2018-2019 bear market and then the FTX crypto exchange crash back in 2022. What’s interesting about these two different posts in history is what followed after the sentiment dropped this low. The initial reaction to this seems to be very similar, with a long accumulation trend following each time. Usually, this trend lasts for a few months, suggesting that the market is using this time to build up momentum. Related Reading: How High Will The Dogecoin Price Be If Bitcoin Reaches $200,000? However, like clockwork, there has been a steady upward move, meaning that sentiment this low could mark the end of the bear market. This then leads to the start of the bull market, and by the next year, the price is often hitting new all-time highs. Using this trend, it is likely that the Bitcoin price has hit or is close to hitting its bottom. In that case, a long period of accumulation could be the next course of action, and this could inevitably lead to the start of the next bull market. However, it is important to keep in mind that there have been points where Bitcoin has deviated from its set historical trend as new investors and macro factors begin to affect the financial markets. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $66,000. BTC is now consolidating above $66,000 and might aim for more gains above $67,200. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $65,500 support. The price is trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Key Resistance Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $63,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $64,500 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $67,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $68,000. A high was formed at $68,180, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $68,181 high. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $68,200 level. A close above the $68,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,500 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $67,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $68,181 high. The next support is now near the $64,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,500, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $67,000 and $68,200.

The Bitcoin market recorded another week of volatile price action, but continues to consolidate a defined range between $60,000 – $70,000.  Bearish sentiments remain at a heightened level, considering the downtrend observed in recent months and the non-confirmation of a cycle bottom.  Notably, recent on-chain data has revealed the importance of a particular support level, which, if breached, could expose investors to steeper downsides and extend the crypto winter. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows URPD Indicator Shows Fragile Market Set-Up – Details In an X post on February 27, market analyst Ali Martinez shared insights from Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), highlighting a thin demand zone below the $63,111 price region. The URPD metric, which tracks how much of the existing Bitcoin supply moved at price levels, shows a significant concentration of coins around the $63,000 range, suggesting strong holder positioning at this level. However, the data also reveals that below $63,111, supply density drops considerably until the next major accumulation cluster at approximately $46,702. This “air pocket” in realized supply indicates that if BTC decisively loses the $63,111 support, price action could accelerate to the downside due to the absence of strong cost-basis support in the interim zone. Beyond $46,702, Martinez identifies $41,653 and $37,867 as additional key support levels, where a notable amount of Bitcoin last changed hands. These levels represent significant holder cost bases and may act as demand zones should bearish pressure intensify. The structure observed on the URPD chart suggests a delicate market set-up, where Bitcoin is currently hovering above a critical support cluster. A breakdown below $63,111 could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing several classes of investors further into unrealized losses and increasing the risk of capitulation. Related Reading: How High Will The Dogecoin Price Be If Bitcoin Reaches $200,000? Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $66,677, reflecting a modest 1.15% gain in the last 24 hours. Despite this slight rebound, underlying sentiment suggests that panic may be gradually creeping into the market structure. According to the classic market cycle psychology model shared by Martinez, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from anxiety and denial toward a more fragile phase where confidence weakens and volatility increases. While the modest daily gain offers temporary relief, the broader psychological landscape indicates that the market is gradually entering panic mode, suggesting an impending emotional sell-off by investors that would force prices to lower bands. With a market cap of $1.33 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest digital asset and the 13th largest asset in the world. Featured image from Getty Images/Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

With the Bitcoin price evidently in a bear cycle, there were not a lot of positives to take from the market’s performance in the past month. According to a recent on-chain observation, March seems set to be a continuation of the worrying trend, as a relevant metric paints a bearish picture for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Whale Activity Rouses Expectations Of Sell Pressure  In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst Arab Chain revealed a critical change in Bitcoin’s whale behavior, as reflected on the Binance Whale To Exchange Flow. This metric tracks the total amount of Bitcoin transferred by large holders into Binance over a 30-day period.  Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 According to Arab Chain, the whale inflow to Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, spiked to as high as $8.8 billion, marking an expansion toward new highs not seen since early 2022. Interestingly, this surge in exchange inflows was seen at the same time Bitcoin was trading at around $64,000. Arab Chain further explained that the sudden, large exchange inflows from these BTC whales suggest a significant rise in the activity of this investor group. According to historical data, these large movements to trading platforms indicate the intentions of whales to sell.  However, more than just a signal of potential sell pressure, this event could also be an indication that Bitcoin’s whales are reallocating their positions. Regardless of the prevalent intent among this investor group, it appears that these whales are preparing for a major move or shift in the Bitcoin market. Arab Chain also referenced observations from comparing the current move to that which occurred in 2021. According to the analytics group, 2021 “saw price peaks followed by sharp corrections after waves of large whale inflows to exchanges.” — and because this is recurring today, it might be a sign of “increased potential selling pressure, or at least a willingness among large investors to manage risk at elevated price levels.” But then, Arab Chain pointed out that surges in exchange inflows do not necessarily mean a bearish period would follow, as some cycles only witnessed high volatility before price continued to expand. Nonetheless, the present conditions reveal that the Bitcoin market is at a “crossroads,” where its price action in the coming weeks could be pivotal in determining what’s next for the asset.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance At the time of this writing, the price of BTC stands at $67,960, reflecting a nearly 3% jump in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Cycle Pattern Points To $31,500 Bottom Target – Details Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels historically seen near bear market bottoms, signaling that selling pressure may be easing. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone often marking late-stage capitulation. The key question: was the recent drop the final flush, or is one last shakeout still ahead? RSI Compression Signals Downside Exhaustion According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same territory that historically marked prior bear market bottoms. This momentum zone has repeatedly appeared during late-stage capitulation phases, making it a critical signal that the market could be nearing another major turning point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Major Milestone As 100 BTC Wallets Approach Record Levels However, Batman is clear that this does not confirm the bottom is already in, stressing the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal. Still, he notes that when RSI compresses to these levels on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has typically been much closer to a structural low than to the beginning of a fresh collapse. Reflecting on the 2022 bear cycle, Batman points out that once RSI entered this extreme zone, price managed to print one final lower low. However, that move occurred very close to the ultimate bottom, indicating that most of the downside had already played out by the time momentum reached such depressed readings. The analyst concludes that probabilities matter more than precision. From his perspective, when Bitcoin trades at these weekly RSI levels, it historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive. Bitcoin’s Six Consecutive Weekly Lower Highs — A Rare Signal In a recent weekly Bitcoin analysis, SuperBro pointed out that BTC has now printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, a rare structural pattern. The last time this occurred was during the COVID crash in 2020, a period marked by extreme volatility and eventual macro reversal. Related Reading: Fidelity Thinks Bitcoin May Be Leaving Its 80% Crashes Behind Price is currently slipping beneath the 200-week EMA and the volume Point of Control (POC), though the weekly candle has not yet closed. A reclaim of the POC before the close could trigger a sharp upside reaction and signal that the breakdown attempt is losing strength. Just below current levels sits the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of higher-timeframe support. RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that momentum is already deeply stretched. When you combine oversold conditions with six straight lower highs pressing into major support, the case for sustained downside continuation becomes less convincing. Beyond the near-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If that macro pattern ultimately plays out, its upper trajectory projects potential targets north of $300,000,  keeping the long-term expansion thesis firmly on the table despite current compression. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price struggles persist as the premier cryptocurrency is yet to break above the key $70,000 resistance zone, suggesting the market remains at risk of a deeper correction. Notably, popular market analyst Yonsei_dent has shared an observation that backs these bearish investors’ expectations. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 Bitcoin Supply In Profit Metric Shows Potential 75% Drawdown  In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Yonsei_dent has identified a potential price bottom of the present market cycle, considering the meltdown in recent months. Since October, the leading cryptocurrency has lost over 45% of its market value, with prices dropping as low as $60,000 from an all-time high of $126,000. Using the Supply In Profit on-chain indicator, Yonsei_dent maps out the possible extent of Bitcoin’s price decline when in the bottom zone, based on historical cycle drawdown periods. For context, the Supply in Profit measures the portion of the total circulating Bitcoin whose current market price is higher than the price at which those coins last moved. It’s an important cycle indicator, as the Supply in Profit approaches extreme highs when near cycle tops, and compresses sharply when near cycle lows. Yonsei_dent explains that the duration of Bitcoin Supply in Profit in the bottom zone in 2022 was six months. During this market cycle, Bitcoin had initially hit an all-time high of $69,000 before crashing by 77% to around $15,500. According to the market analyst, if the same length of the bottom phase was placed on the current price chart, it represents a 70%-75% drawdown price projection for the present market cycle. In this case, Bitcoin is expected to find a price low within a range of $31,500 – $38,000, suggesting a further potential 41%-51% decline from the current market prices. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Bitcoin Price Overview  At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,553 following a 5.84% loss in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is up by a minor 0.54% and valued at $40.04 billion. The premier cryptocurrency also reports a negative performance on its weekly and monthly charts, with respective losses of 6.21% and 27.11%. Unless the market bulls convincingly reclaim the long standing $70k resistance, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile and prices vulnerable to additional downside or prolonged consolidation in the near term. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who is of the notion that the cryptocurrency has officially entered bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000.  Technical analysis of price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction to as low as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next price move. Bearish Territory Kicked In After Breakdown Below $107,000 The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered into bearish territory after the price broke down below a major higher-timeframe ascending trendline around $107,000. This trendline, which is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2023 to 2025 rally. It connected a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended with Bitcoin reaching a peak price of $126,080. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Done Or Is This Just The Beginning? Pundit Shares Points To Consider The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price decisively lost that upward support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered into a changed momentum and began printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was when Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next leg up. Fibonacci Levels Point To $44,000 And $35,000 Bitcoin has been on a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it bottoms out around $35,000. This outlook is based on how much the Bitcoin price corrected in previous cycles. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved For instance, the 2018 bear market saw an approximately 84% decline from peak to trough. Similarly, the 2022 correction erased roughly 77% from its cycle high. In both instances, these deep retracements came before the next major rally.  Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior. The projected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the October 2025 all-time high. Two levels stand out clearly on the chart. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always attracted strong buying interest in previous corrections, making it a possible stabilization point if selling pressure slows down. Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, then the next level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. The expectation is that Bitcoin will eventually bottom at $35,000 even if it fails to hold above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down by 6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

As February comes to a close, it would be fair to say that the Bitcoin price has had one of its worst monthly performances in over two years. What’s worrisome is that the premier cryptocurrency doesn’t appear to be done, as the bear market roars on. Below are some of the relevant support levels to watch out for over the next few months. MVRV Bands Put BTC Bear Market Bottom At $51,558 In a recent post on the X platform, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified two levels that could be crucial to the future of the Bitcoin price in the coming months. This evaluation revolves around the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) pricing bands. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape The MVRV pricing bands are an on-chain analytics tool that shows the different profitability levels of the investors of a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario). Typically, these pricing bands represent dynamic support and resistance levels, as they compare the current market price to the average realized value of all investors. Hence, the MVRV pricing bands can be useful in identifying potential market tops (in overheated conditions) and price bottoms (of undervalued assets). According to Glassnode data shared by Martinez, the potential bottom in the current Bitcoin bear market lies between $51,558 and $54,703. The purple line (which shows a -1 standard deviation of the MVRV ratio) represents a deep capitulation phase for the market and has always been a point of reversal for the Bitcoin price in past bear markets. As shown in the chart below, the price of BTC got rejected twice at this level in 2022, during the thick of the crypto winter. At the time of publishing his post, Martinez revealed that the purple MVRV band stood at around $51,558. While this suggests that the $51,000 level could be the potential bottom of the current bear market, it is worth mentioning that the MVRV band could shift slightly downward as the price steadily falls. In the unlikely scenario that the Bitcoin price witnesses a turnaround at its current price point, it would have to contend with a key resistance level around $73,726. According to Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands, the -0.5 standard deviation line represents an accumulation zone, where investors might look to offload their tokens once they break even. Ultimately, these MVRV pricing bands hint at the potential turning points for the Bitcoin price over the coming months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $65,800, reflecting an over 2% dip in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have shown strength amid the crypto market’s correction and the flagship crypto’s latest performance. Some experts have praised investors’ resilience, suggesting that the “real story” is not in the recent outflows. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Fate Hangs On This Multi-Year Support – Recovery Or Deeper Pullback Next? ETFs Investors Hold Strong Despite Market Downturn On Thursday, Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, affirmed that Bitcoin ETF investors have “largely displayed diamond hands” during the recent crypto market downturn. The flagship crypto has seen a 48.2% correction from its October 6, 2025, all-time high (ATH), recording five consecutive months of strong bleeding after the October 10 market crash. Since then, spot BTC ETFs have seen about $6.5 billion in outflows, the expert observed, which he considers a “drop in the bucket” compared to the $55 billion in cumulative total net inflows that the category has seen since launching in January 2024. It’s worth noting that crypto-based investment products have seen five weeks of outflows this year, with Bitcoin having the weakest sentiment among major assets amid the negative market sentiment of the past month. According to SoSoValue data, BTC funds have recorded $3.81 billion in net outflows since January 23, starting the week with $203.82 million in outflows on Monday. However, Geraci highlighted potential renewed demand for the investment products as the category sees a three-day streak of consistent inflows. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1 billion in inflows over the past three days, setting the stage for their potential biggest week since mid-January. The ETF expert emphasized that 50% drawdowns “are a walk in the park for long-time BTC investors,” but observed that newer ETF investors also appear unfazed by the current market conditions. “Not first time btc has experienced 50% decline & likely won’t be the last. ETF investors clearly aren’t panicking, though. Apparently buying the dip,” he wrote on X. Bitcoin ETFs Strength Is The ‘Real Story’ Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas backed Geraci’s comment, praising the remarkable performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two years. “As an ETF watcher, you know just how absurd this strength amid a 50% drawdown,” Balchunas stated. “This is the real story, vs focusing on the $6b that came out, which most stories do.” “Further, the narrative that crypto is ‘paying the price’ for getting financialized is absurd. $55b in net new cash in two years is the opposite of paying the price,” he added on X. In a recent interview, the senior analyst observed that the amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs is only down around 6% despite the market pullback. He noted that these types of corrections happen to every asset, including bonds and stocks, before recovering. Stocks have the same thing. Every time stocks go down, I remind myself and then other people that stocks have a 100% perfect record of coming back to hit all-time highs from a downturn. So, why would I worry that much, right? Related Reading: XRP Rally Incoming? Analyst Forecasts March-April Recovery If This Level Breaks Balchunas affirmed that these assets can have “really horrible streaks, but then when they come back around, the flows come back.” He concluded that the price volatility and the negative market sentiment are “the cost of the holy grail returns that most people have gotten.” Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $66,000 level and is now attempting to consolidate above it in order to extend its recovery. The move has improved short-term momentum, but structural signals suggest that upside conviction remains fragile. Holding above $66K is technically important, yet the broader supply backdrop may limit the sustainability of further gains. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap According to analyst Axel Adler, cumulative exchange netflows remain a critical constraint. As long as netflows stay positive — meaning more Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges than leaving them — the probability of sustained price expansion remains limited. Recent data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (All Exchanges, Daily) metric reinforces this caution. Since January 14, total BTC held across major exchanges has increased from 2.723 million to 2.752 million BTC, representing a net addition of roughly 28,489 BTC, or about 1% over 45 days. Although the trajectory has not been linear — with a local peak near 2.794 million BTC in early February followed by a partial pullback — reserves have consistently re-established themselves near the upper bound of the range. This stepwise growth structure signals a persistent return of coins to exchanges. Historically, rising exchange balances imply expanding potential sell-side supply. Until reserves break decisively below January’s 2.723 million BTC baseline, structural selling pressure remains embedded in the market. Netflow Regime Shift Signals Structural Distribution The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange netflows provides critical confirmation that the recent reserve growth is not incidental. The transition from -1,187 BTC on January 14 to +628 BTC by February 27 represents more than a short-term fluctuation — it reflects a structural regime shift from accumulation to distribution. When the SMA(30) netflow remains negative, it indicates coins are being withdrawn from exchanges faster than they are deposited, typically associated with accumulation behavior. The steady climb toward zero throughout January, followed by a decisive cross into positive territory on February 1, marks a clear behavioral pivot. The fact that the indicator has held above zero for nearly four consecutive weeks significantly reduces the probability of a false breakout. The mid-February impulse toward +1,069 BTC highlights the intensity of inflows during peak distribution pressure. Although the metric moderated afterward, it did not revert below zero, suggesting that coins continue to migrate toward exchanges at a sustained pace. At an average structural inflow rate of roughly 628 BTC per day, the supply available for potential sale is expanding. Until the SMA(30) decisively flips back into negative territory, exchange-side pressure remains dominant, limiting the probability of a durable bullish regime reestablishing itself. Related Reading: The $2,000 Fault Line: Why Ethereum’s Record Volatility Signals An Imminent Explosion Bitcoin Tests Macro Support After Rejection From Highs Bitcoin’s weekly structure reflects a clear transition from expansion to correction following rejection near the $120K–$130K region. The chart shows a decisive breakdown below the $90K–$95K zone, which previously acted as structural support. That level has now flipped into resistance, confirming a shift in market control. Price is currently consolidating near $66K after a sharp decline, hovering just above the 200-week moving average. This level historically acts as a macro support during deeper corrective phases. Holding above it is technically significant; sustained closes below would likely signal a more prolonged bear cycle. The 50-week moving average has rolled over and is trending downward, while the 100-week average is flattening. This alignment indicates weakening intermediate momentum and suggests rallies may face overhead pressure unless key trend levels are reclaimed. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn Volume expanded notably during the breakdown phase, pointing to forced liquidations and distribution rather than orderly consolidation. Since then, participation has moderated, implying that panic selling has eased but conviction remains limited. Structurally, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal inflection point. A reclaim of the mid-$80K region would be required to restore bullish structure. Conversely, failure to defend current support could expose deeper liquidity zones below. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com