THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

On-chain data shows a dormant Bitcoin whale has roused after a silence of nearly seven years, shifting 2,043 BTC on the blockchain. A Dormant Bitcoin Whale Has Just Made A Notable Transaction As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, an old whale transaction has been spotted on the Bitcoin blockchain. The on-chain indicator cited by the analyst is the Spent Output Age Bands, which tells us about the amount of BTC that addresses belonging to a particular age band are moving. Coins are divided into these “age bands” based on how long they have been sitting dormant on the blockchain for. In the context of the current topic, the band of interest is the 5 to 7 years one, covering tokens that haven’t been involved in a transaction since between five and seven years ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Not “Pumpable” Right Now, Says CryptoQuant Founder: Here’s Why Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Spent Output Age Bands for this cohort. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands has just registered a huge spike for the group, indicating coins falling in this age range have just broken their dormancy. In total, the move involved 2,043 BTC, worth $140.8 million at the current exchange rate. According to the analyst, the whale involved in the transaction purchased these tokens on February 19th, 2019, implying that the age of the tokens was on the higher end of the range, being nearly seven years dormant before the transaction took place. “This unknown entity once held 39,000 BTC, originally received from Cumberland (OTC Trading Desk),” noted Maartunn. As for what could be the reason behind the whale choosing to break their silence now, the answer is uncertain. It could be that the recent bearish price action was strong enough to shake even this diamond hand into selling, or the move could simply just be for a mundane purpose like a change of wallets. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Under MVRV Band That Marked Last 3 Bottoms In some other news, new investor capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up lately, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has highlighted in an X post. As displayed in the above chart, the 30-day capital netflow into Bitcoin has plummeted into the negative zone recently, suggesting demand from new investors isn’t enough to absorb the selling. “This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation,” noted the analyst. Currently, the 30-day cumulative capital netflow is sitting at a value of -$2.6 billion for the cryptocurrency. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement during the last few days as its price is still trading around $68,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto market maker Wintermute published a detailed market update on Tuesday via X (previously Twitter), offering a comprehensive breakdown of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent collapse, who was behind the selling pressure, and what conditions must change for a meaningful recovery to take hold. Wintermute Details Brutal Bitcoin Crash The firm described the past week as exceptionally severe for Bitcoin. Prices fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and continued sliding to around $60,000 before stabilizing in the low $70,000 range by the weekend.  According to Wintermute, the decline erased all of Bitcoin’s gains that followed Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, accompanied by widespread liquidations.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target More than $2.7 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out as months of range‑bound trading encouraged excessive leverage that ultimately unraveled.  Wintermute also pointed to the growing influence of Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) on price action, noting that BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw more than $10 billion in notional trading volume on Thursday.  Wintermute identified three major catalysts that struck the market at the same time. The first was the January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, which altered expectations around monetary policy.  The second was a wave of disappointing earnings from large technology firms, highlighted by Microsoft shares dropping 10%. The third was a dramatic reversal in precious metals, where silver plunged 40% in just three days after briefly reaching $121.  The Key Conditions For BTC’s Next Recovery Data from spot markets suggest that selling pressure was structural rather than isolated. The Coinbase premium remained in negative territory throughout the decline, a pattern that has persisted since December and signals sustained selling by US investors.  Wintermute said its internal over‑the‑counter (OTC) flow data confirmed that US counterparties were heavy sellers throughout the week, a trend that was reinforced by ongoing ETF redemptions. Institutional demand, which had supported prices earlier in the cycle, has largely faded. Since November, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $6.2 billion in cumulative net outflows, representing the longest continuous stretch of redemptions since these products launched.  Wintermute explained that when ETF sponsors are forced to sell spot Bitcoin into falling markets, it creates a negative feedback loop that amplifies downside pressure.  The firm also highlighted growing fragility in derivatives markets. IBIT and Deribit together now account for half of the crypto options market. Wintermute said the sharp sell‑off reflected investor complacency after periods of low volatility and sideways trading, which left positioning vulnerable once prices began to move. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Beyond crypto‑specific factors, Wintermute argued that the broader investment landscape has been dominated by artificial intelligence. The firm pointed to a viral chart showing Bitcoin’s performance closely mirroring software stocks in the S&P 500.  According to Wintermute, the more important takeaway is that AI has been absorbing a disproportionate share of global capital, often at the expense of other asset classes, including crypto. Looking ahead, Wintermute expects a period of uneven and volatile price discovery. The firm said it is difficult to envision a sustained rally unless several conditions align: the Coinbase premium turning positive, ETF flows reversing back into inflows, and basis rates in derivatives markets stabilizing.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $70,000 level after weeks of volatility. Yet repeated failures to hold that threshold with confirmation suggest that demand remains fragile. Each push above this psychological barrier has been met with renewed selling pressure. Reinforcing the view that the market is still navigating a corrective phase rather than establishing a sustained recovery. Sentiment remains cautious as liquidity conditions tighten and traders look for clearer signs of stabilization. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply on Exchanges Mirrors 2016 Levels: What Happens Next? Recent data shared by top on-chain analyst Maartunn highlights a notable shift among large holders. According to the analysis, many whales who entered the market near the $96,000 region are now sitting on significant unrealized losses following the subsequent price decline. After briefly testing those higher levels, Bitcoin reversed sharply, leaving late-cycle entrants exposed to downside pressure. This dynamic suggests that some large investors may be reassessing risk, either reducing exposure or repositioning portfolios amid uncertain macro and crypto-specific conditions. Such behavior often contributes to heightened volatility, particularly when leveraged positions unwind. Whale Capitulation Signals Market Redistribution Phase Recent data shared by on-chain analyst Maartunn highlights a sharp wave of realized losses among large Bitcoin holders, pointing to an evolving market structure rather than a static downturn. According to the figures, realized losses reached approximately $944 million on Feb. 3, $431 million on Feb. 4, $1.46 billion on Feb. 5, and $915 million on Feb. 6. These numbers reflect significant selling activity from investors who accumulated BTC near higher price levels and are now exiting positions under pressure. Such realized losses typically indicate capitulation among late-cycle entrants. When whales sell at a loss, it often means that conviction has weakened or that risk management considerations are taking priority. However, this process also implies redistribution. Coins do not disappear; they transfer from weaker hands to buyers willing to absorb supply at lower prices. Maartunn notes that the estimated cost basis for the newest cohort of large holders is now around $90,000. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent accumulation occurred near that level, creating a potential overhead resistance zone if the price attempts to recover. Markets often evolve through these phases of redistribution. While short-term sentiment may remain fragile, shifts in cost basis and ownership structure can eventually lay the groundwork for stabilization and future trend development. Related Reading: Ethereum Crash Below $2,000 Triggers Record Token Movement: Hinting At Capitulation Bitcoin Price Structure Signals Continued Distribution Phase Bitcoin’s recent price structure reflects a market still dominated by distribution pressure rather than sustained demand recovery. After failing multiple times to consolidate above the $90K–$100K region, BTC entered a persistent downtrend characterized by lower highs and increasingly aggressive selloffs. The latest decline toward the $60K–$70K zone came with a sharp expansion in volume, typically associated with forced liquidations, panic exits, or large portfolio reallocations. From a technical perspective, price now trades clearly below the major moving averages shown on the chart, all of which are trending downward. This configuration usually signals a mature corrective phase rather than a temporary pullback. The inability to reclaim those averages quickly suggests weak spot demand and continued caution among institutional participants. Related Reading: Binance SAFU Fund Adds 3,600 Bitcoin ($233M) As Market Faces Pressure The $60K–$65K region is emerging as a critical support cluster. A sustained hold above this range could stabilize sentiment and allow consolidation. However, failure to maintain this zone would likely expose deeper liquidity pockets below, potentially accelerating volatility. Short term, price action appears reactive rather than directional. Until volume stabilizes and BTC reclaims key trend indicators, rallies may remain corrective. Market structure currently reflects redistribution rather than confirmed accumulation, keeping downside risks structurally elevated. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The founder of CryptoQuant has explained that Bitcoin is not “pumpable” right now based on the divergence in the Market Cap and Realized Cap. Bitcoin Market Cap Fell Even As Realized Cap Grew In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has talked about the difference in growth that the BTC Market Cap and Realized Cap have witnessed over the past year. The Market Cap here is just the total value of the cryptocurrency’s supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap is also a model to calculate BTC’s total valuation, but it doesn’t take such a simple approach. This on-chain capitalization model assumes that the ‘real’ value of any coin in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Under MVRV Band That Marked Last 3 Bottoms In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the amount that the Bitcoin investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the Market Cap represents the value that they are holding in the present. Generally, changes in the former, which can be thought of as capital inflows/outflows, result in changes in the latter. Below is a chart that tracks how the Market Cap is reacting to fluctuations in the Realized Cap. Looks like the value of the metric has been negative in recent weeks | Source: @ki_young_ju on X As displayed in the graph, the growth rate difference between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap was positive in mid-2025, suggesting that the Market Cap was going up faster than the Realized Cap. This changed in the last quarter of the year, however, with the indicator dropping into the negative zone as the market observed a crash. 2026 has only seen the metric drop deeper as the price decline in the cryptocurrency has continued. “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” noted Young Ju. The CryptoQuant founder has pointed out the contrast in market dynamics between 2024 and 2025 to showcase his point. In 2024, a $10 billion increase in the Realized Cap was enough to cause a $26 billion jump in the Market Cap. Over the course of 2025, a whopping $308 billion in capital flowed into the asset, yet the Market Cap actually fell by $98 billion. “Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect,” explained the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues In some other news, New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been capitulating recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. “New Whales” are the investors who entered the market within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC in their balance. During the recent price drawdown, this cohort took massive losses, including a loss-taking spike of $1.46 billion on February 5th. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,500, down over 12% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $68,500. BTC is now struggling to clear $72,000 and might start another decline in the near term. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is facing many hurdles near $72,000. The price is trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at $69,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,000 and $67,700 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,000 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. However, the bears seem to be active near the $72,200 and $72,500 levels. Besides, there is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at $69,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,200 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $71,000 level. A close above the $71,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $72,000 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $73,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $74,000 and $74,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $71,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,000 level. The first major support is near the $67,650 level. The next support is now near the $65,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $67,600. Major Resistance Levels – $71,500 and $72,000.

Bitcoin’s mining landscape is showing clear signs of stress as network difficulty records its largest downward adjustment since 2021. The sharp drop reflects a wave of miners shutting off machines or exiting entirely, squeezed by declining profitability, higher operating costs, and prolonged price pressure. As inefficient miners step aside and difficulty adjusts lower, the stage is set for consolidation across the mining sector. What Miner Capitulation Says About Near-Term Bitcoin Sentiment One of the most telling signals in the market is happening right now. The CEO of Coinbureau, known as Nic, revealed on X that Bitcoin mining difficulty just experienced its biggest drop since 2021, which means a meaningful number of miners are either shutting machines off or exiting the network entirely. At the same time, some miners are actively pivoting away from BTC and moving into AI and hyperscale data centers. Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Bitfarms is a clear example, as its stock surged after announcing it is no longer positioning itself primarily as a BTC mining company. It’s not just that mining is harder, but because prices are down, and margins are tight. Instead, markets are actively rewarding miners for leaving BTC and reallocating into AI infrastructure, signaling that capital sees more returns outside BTC mining. A Statistical Outlier In Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin has just printed a 5.65 standard deviation move, an event so extreme that it has occurred only 13 times in more than 5,000 trading days. According to Front Runners on X, Standard deviation measures how far a price move deviates from the average daily change. Most daily BTC moves fall within ±1 standard deviation, which is roughly 70% of the time, and any moves beyond 3 standard deviations are already considered rare. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Reset Complete? BTC Steadies Above $70K as Markets Debate the Next Move A 5+ standard deviation move sits at extreme territory. Historically, BTC has seen similar moves of volatility in January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020, all periods that closely aligned with major cycle bottoms. This doesn’t mean it is a reversal recovery to the upside, as BTC could still consolidate sideways for months. However, this is the kind of volatility move that tends to happen near exhaustion, not mid-trend. This fast and aggressive crypto bear market is likely closer to a bottom than a top. Analyst Scient has highlighted that for Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets, this is not the environment to chase trades. Instead, it’s the phase to plan buys using a structured Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy over the coming weeks and months. There is no reliable way to time an exact bottom outside of pure luck. As prices trend lower, downside targets will continue to shift lower, creating frustration for anyone trying to trade every move. Scient emphasized that a simple spot accumulation using dollar-cost averaging in BTC and strong alts will outperform gambling on leverage for most participants. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have rebounded from last week’s lows, providing optimism that the bottom may be in. This comes amid accumulation from whales while the crypto ETFs have seen notable inflows following last week’s outflows.  Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Climbing Again The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have pumped from their last week’s lows of around $60,000 and $1,900, respectively. BTC climbed to as high as $71,000, sparking bullish sentiments that the crash to $60,000 may have marked the bottom. These price surges have come on the back of significant accumulation from both retail and institutional investors.  Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed two whales that are buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. These two newly created wallets are said to have withdrawn 3,500 BTC, worth $249 million, and 30,000 ETH, worth $63 million, from Binance, likely to hold these coins for the long term.  Furthermore, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have also rebounded due to renewed inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs. SoSoValue data shows that the BTC ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $145 million yesterday, sustaining the momentum from last Friday, when they took in $371 million, after recording three consecutive days of outflows.  Further data from SoSoValue shows that the Ethereum ETFs saw daily net inflows of $57 million yesterday, reversing the trend after seeing three consecutive daily net outflows. Tom Lee’s BitMine also continues to buy more ETH, which is a positive for the Ethereum price. Lookonchain revealed that BitMine bought 40,000 ETH, worth $83 million, yesterday. These purchases come just after the company announced it had purchased 40,613 ETH, valued at $82.85 million, last week.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? It is also worth highlighting external factors that have contributed to the recent rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran appear to have cooled following talks last Friday, after initial reports that the talks were unlikely to proceed. Meanwhile, traders are beginning to price in the possibility of a rate cut in March after recent job reports came in weak.  Bullish Case For BTC And ETH Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has made a bullish case for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. In an X post, he stated that he expects to see more momentum coming in for BTC, with a clear breakout above $71,500 in the coming days. The analyst added that the pattern is comparable to the COVID crash, and he thinks a rally to between $78,000 and $80,000 could occur in the coming weeks.  For Ethereum, Michaël van de Poppe stated that this is a “tremendous” opportunity to be looking at ETH because there is a massive gap to the ‘fair price.’ He added that ETH’s current valuation, based on the MVRV ratio, is just as underpriced as during notable crashes such as the peak of the 2018 bear market and the April 2025 crash when Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.  Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is tightening between two major liquidity pools, with both bulls and bears sitting on borrowed time. As pressure builds and liquidity stacks on both sides, the next move looks less about direction and more about which side gets wiped out first. HTF Liquidity At $65,300 Remains The Primary Target Lennaert Snyder’s latest Bitcoin analysis remains focused on a significant High-Timeframe (HTF) liquidity pool located around the $65,300 zone. This area is designated as a major box of interest for hunting long positions. Rather than setting a blind entry, the strategy involves waiting for the price to penetrate this zone and then monitoring for high-probability reversal patterns to confirm a bottom. Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target Before reaching the lower HTF liquidity, there are potential local short-selling opportunities to trade the downward move. The first point of interest is the M15 liquidity sweep around $69,900. If the price reaches this level and captures the liquidity, the plan is to initiate a short position only after a confirmed bearish market structure break. A similar short-selling logic applies to the liquidity resting above the $71,450 level. Should Bitcoin push higher and sweep this liquidity, the expert is positioned for a subsequent bearish market structure shift, which signals a move back toward the primary $65,300 target. The analysis emphasizes patience and trigger-based entries over predictive guessing because the exact depth of the test into the $65,300 box is unpredictable. Liquidity Magnets Light Up On Bitcoin 24-Hour Heatmap Coin Adam pointed out that Bitcoin’s 24-hour heat map clearly highlights where liquidity is clustered, raising the key question of which side market makers may target next. According to Adam, current conditions suggest the market is being pulled between two powerful liquidity magnets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $70K As Volatility Goes Quiet On the downside, the $67,800–$68,200 zone stands out as a bright liquidity pool. This area is packed with long positions, making it an attractive target for a downside sweep. Coin Adam noted that a sharp wick into this range to grab liquidity and rebuild momentum remains a very realistic scenario. On the upside, there is also notable short squeeze potential between $71,500 and $72,500, where a heavy concentration of short positions sits. If Bitcoin can hold convincingly above the $70,000 level, a strong bullish candle could push the price above to fill the gap. Overall, Adam explained that price is currently compressed between two major liquidity blocks, a setup that often resolves with a move toward the most prominent target. While both sides remain vulnerable, Coin Adam believes a sweep below $68,000 appears more likely in the near term, before any larger move toward the $72,000–$76,000 region unfolds. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is seeing large institutional withdrawals while XRP is drawing the strongest share of fresh allocations, according to the latest digital asset fund-flow data. On paper, that rotation should support XRP’s valuation. Instead, prices across the market remain under pressure. The disconnect between capital movement and market performance is now forcing a deeper examination of liquidity conditions, regional positioning, and broader cycle dynamics driving the divergence. Bitcoin Outflows Are Driving XRP Inflows Data from CoinShares’ weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report shows Bitcoin recorded $264 million in outflows over the measured week, making it the only major asset to post significant negative sentiment. The withdrawals extend Bitcoin’s year-to-date outflows to $984 million, reinforcing that institutions are actively reducing exposure rather than passively rebalancing. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios At the same time, XRP attracted $63.1 million in weekly inflows — the highest across all tracked assets. Its cumulative inflows have now reached $109 million year-to-date, positioning it as the strongest institutional allocation target so far this year. While Solana drew $8.2 million and Ethereum recorded $5.3 million, neither came close to XRP’s scale, confirming the rotation is concentrated rather than market-wide. Regional flow reinforces the rotation. Germany led with $87.1 million in inflows, followed by Switzerland ($30.1 million), Canada ($21.4 million), and Brazil ($16.7 million). The United States moved in the opposite direction, posting $214 million in weekly outflows and contributing to $1.464 billion in cumulative withdrawals from US -listed products. However, despite XRP’s leadership in inflows, total digital asset investment products still recorded $187 million in net outflows. This indicates that while Bitcoin capital is partly rotating into XRP, a meaningful share is exiting crypto entirely, diluting the price impact of inflows. Liquidity Contraction And Market Structure Are Pressuring Price XRP’s price behavior reflects wider liquidity constraints. The asset is currently trading at $1.42, down 12.3% over the past week. The drop highlights how inflows are being absorbed without translating into immediate price expansion. Related Reading: Expert Says If You Hold XRP, Pay Attention To These Things Moreover, total assets under management across digital asset funds have fallen to $129.8 billion, the lowest since March 2025. With the institutional capital base contracting, new allocations carry less price impact than they would in an expanding market. Trading dynamics further clarify the pressure. Exchange-traded product volumes reached a record $63.1 billion, surpassing the previous $56.4 billion peak recorded in October. High volume alongside falling prices typically signals distribution, liquidations, or hedging rather than accumulation. Bitcoin’s systemic role amplifies the effect. As the market’s primary liquidity anchor, sustained BTC outflows create correlation drag across digital assets, limiting XRP’s ability to respond positively to inflows. CoinShares analysts add that while outflows persist, their pace is slowing — a pattern often associated with late-cycle capitulation and potential bottom formation. Within that framework, XRP’s inflows may represent early institutional positioning ahead of stabilization rather than a catalyst for immediate price expansion. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

As the crypto market recovers from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial price zone. Despite the bounce, some analysts have warned that the bottom may not be in yet, suggesting the flagship crypto could soon retest its recent lows. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Bottom Below $60,000, Says Analyst On Monday, Bitcoin continued its sideways move, trying to turn a key area into support for the third consecutive day. After hitting a two-year low of $60,000 last week, the flagship crypto has bounced 17.5% to trade between $68,000 and $72,000 over the past few days. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the upper zone of its short-term price range, raising questions about the direction of BTC’s next move. As the price recovered, Crypto Bullet noted that the BTC printed a “strong weekly close” above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), leaving Thursday’s correction as a long wick. The analyst cautioned that these wicks have usually been filled the following week, pointing to the late February 2025 and early October 2025 corrections and the subsequent performance. Based on this, he suggested that Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 area again, where the 200-week Moving Average (MA) is also located. Similarly, Ted Pillows highlighted BTC’s Monday bounce above $70,000, asserting that the key level to defend is the $68,000 support, where the EMA200 sits.  If the price fails to hold this level, the market observer suggested a deeper correction could be expected, with Bitcoin risking a drop below the recent lows if that level also fails to hold. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez hinted that BTC’s bottom might not be in, as “Bitcoin has historically bottomed around the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.” According to the chart shared on X, that level currently sits at $52,040. BTC To See Leeser Relief Rally? Another market watcher highlighted BTC’s macro descending triangle pattern, which it has been forming in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, suggesting that its potential bounce could be a “lesser relief rally compared to the 2024-2025 advance to the upside.” Rekt Capital noted that upon breakdown from its macro triangles, Bitcoin tends to react from the 50-Month EMA. However, it has historically been followed by a downside deviation below this level. “When viewed through the lens of the Macro Descending Triangle, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently failed to revisit the base of the Macro Triangle following breakdowns, which means BTC may fall short of $82.5k on any upcoming relief rally.” To the analyst, if BTC can build support above the $71,000 area, where the post-halving accumulation breakout occurred, the price could attempt a move into the mid-$70,000. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Clears The Threshold For Institutional Settlement – Here’s How However, the flagship crypto “is still negotiating whether it will locate itself within the Post-Halving Range,” and has not decisively reclaimed the upper zone of its current range as support, “is instead showing early signs of flipping into resistance on the Weekly timeframe.” As a result, Bitcoin could consolidate around its post-halving range again if the $70,000 mark confirms as resistance. “At roughly 30% of the way through this part of the market cycle, there remains ample time for further structural movement to unfold but history suggests whatever clustering develops will likely be distributive before continuing additional Bearish Acceleration,” Rekt Capital concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Despite a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices since last October, analysts at Bernstein argue that the current downturn does not resemble a traditional crypto bear market.  In a note to clients released on Monday, the firm described the pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” even as the asset has fallen about 44% from its all‑time highs in current trading. Bernstein Defends Bitcoin’s Fundamentals The analysis was led by Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, who said the recent sell‑off reflects a loss of confidence rather than deeper structural problems.  The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact and that the decline should not be mistaken for a systemic breakdown. Bernstein reaffirmed its long‑term outlook, maintaining a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bernstein noted that many of the “red flags” that have historically preceded major Bitcoin crashes are missing this time. The analyst asserts that there have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the crypto ecosystem.  Instead, the firm sees a market weighed down by negative sentiment, even as broader conditions appear unusually favorable. The analysts pointed to what they described as strong institutional support for Bitcoin.  This includes a pro‑Bitcoin US president, the continued expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), growing adoption by corporate treasuries, and sustained interest from large asset managers.  In Bernstein’s view, these factors clearly distinguish the current cycle from past downturns that were driven by excess risk and fragile market structures. Holders And Miners Can Weather Long Downturn The firm also addressed shifting narratives around technology trends. Bernstein noted that some investors now argue Bitcoin has become irrelevant as global attention turns toward artificial intelligence (AI).  The analysts dismissed that view, saying it reflects changing investor focus rather than a genuine threat to Bitcoin’s role. They added that fears around quantum computing have similarly been overstated, pointing out that such risks would affect all critical digital systems, not just Bitcoin. The firm further downplayed fears of forced selling driven by corporate treasuries or miner capitulation. Bernstein said major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to withstand prolonged downturns.  Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Referencing comments from Strategy’s recent earnings call, the analysts noted that only an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years—would trigger a need for restructuring. Miners, they added, are also better positioned than in past cycles. Many have diversified their revenue by reallocating power resources toward AI data center demand, reducing reliance on Bitcoin mining alone and easing pressure from production costs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,627, having recorded losses of 20% and 22% over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is continuing its long‑standing Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation strategy despite ongoing market weakness and growing concerns around the firm’s unrealized losses.  At the same time, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by well‑known market strategist Tom Lee, has revealed a major expansion of its Ethereum (ETH) holdings, underscoring a broader trend of corporate crypto accumulation even as prices remain under pressure. Strategy Adds 1,142 BTC Despite Rising Losses  In a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed on Monday, Strategy reported the purchase of an additional 1,142 Bitcoin for approximately $90 million.  The acquisition was made between February 2 and February 8 at an average price of $78,815 per coin, according to the company’s 8‑K filing with the regulator. The move extends Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying campaign, even as the value of its massive crypto treasury remains below its total acquisition cost on paper. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In With the latest purchase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have climbed to 714,644 BTC, a position currently valued at roughly $49 billion based on prevailing market prices.  The company has spent about $54.4 billion to build its Bitcoin reserves, including fees and related expenses. Across all acquisitions, Strategy’s average purchase price now stands at $76,056 per Bitcoin, well above current trading prices. Concerns around Strategy’s balance sheet have resurfaced amid the recent Bitcoin sell‑off. As previously reported by NewsBTC, CEO Phong Le stated that Bitcoin would need to fall by roughly 90% from current levels for the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings to merely match the value of its outstanding convertible debt.  Even under such an extreme scenario, Le said the company would explore restructuring options if converting the debt into equity were not feasible. Bitmine’s Crypto And Cash Holdings Reach $10B  On Monday, Bitmine disclosed that its combined crypto holdings, cash, and so‑called “moonshot” investments now total approximately $10 billion. As of February 8, the company’s crypto portfolio includes 4,325,738 ETH valued at $2,125 per token, alongside 193 Bitcoin. Beyond cryptocurrencies, Bitmine reported additional investments including a $200 million stake in Beast Industries, a $19 million stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), and total cash reserves of $595 million.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? The company noted in a Monday press release that its Ethereum holdings represent approximately 3.58% of the total ETH supply, which currently stands at around 120.7 million tokens. Thomas Lee, Executive Chairman of Bitmine, said the company acquired 40,613 ETH over the past week alone. He described the recent pullback in Ethereum prices as an attractive opportunity, arguing that the market is underestimating ETH’s long‑term utility.  Bitmine also revealed that a significant portion of its Ethereum holdings is actively staked. As of February 8, 2026, the company had 2,897,459 ETH staked, valued at approximately $6.2 billion at current prices. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $69,495, reflecting an almost 11% decline over the past week. Strategy’s shares showed a modest rebound, rising 0.82% on Monday to trade around $136 per share. Bitmine’s stock, BMNR, also moved higher, climbing roughly 2% during Monday’s session to trade near $20.91. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $68,000. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,200 zone. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is facing many hurdles near $72,000. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with support at $68,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,800 and $67,700 levels. Bitcoin Price Stays In A Range Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,800 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the main slide from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. However, the bears seem to be active near the $72,000 and $72,500 levels. Besides, there is a rising channel forming with support at $68,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,800, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the main slide from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. The first key resistance is near the $72,500 level. A close above the $72,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $74,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,880 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,500 and $77,200. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $69,400 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level. The next support is now near the $67,600 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,600. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $72,500.

Ross Gerber, a renowned Tesla investor and Co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, has identified the primary reason Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $70,000. The CEO has attributed the decline in the leading cryptocurrency and the broader market to the rise of scam tokens and shit coins in the space.  The Truth Behind Bitcoin’s Crash Below $70,000 The Bitcoin price dropped below $70,000 last week, sparking fear and uncertainty across the market. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency crashed, other major digital assets followed, fueling the broader market decline. In his X post on February 7, Gerber has shared insights into the factors driving Bitcoin’s recent downturn. Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? According to him, the market is currently being undermined by a surge in scam tokens, citing meme-based cryptocurrencies such as the TRUMP coin. He explained that bad actors are increasingly entering the space, launching low-quality or fake tokens with little to no utility or real value while generating hype and FOMO. When investors buy these tokens, they often suffer losses from rug pulls, sudden crashes, or other fraudulent schemes.  Based on Gerber’s report, scam tokens have not only eroded crypto investors’ confidence and discouraged market participation, but have also diverted capital that could have flowed into legitimate cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The Gerber Kawasaki CEO also highlighted that another key factor behind Bitcoin’s continued decline is the absence of new market catalysts.  He suggested that the market is largely driven by the same underlying factors, with only minor fluctuations from short-term moves by bag holders. In 2024, Bitcoin experienced sharp gains following the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additional momentum came from catalysts like an increase in institutional demand. Recently, this demand has been declining. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record massive outflows, macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, and Bitcoin continues to face strong sell-offs and volatility. Gerber also agrees that Bitcoin’s current downturn is exacerbated by selling pressure from leveraged traders, whose forced liquidations trigger a chain reaction that pushes prices lower.  Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Are Still Crashing Today Despite the negative trend, Gerber frames the situation as an opportunity for long-term investors. He noted that the decline in Bitcoin’s price allows seasoned players to buy the cryptocurrency at discounted “panic-level” prices, positioning these investors for potential gains once market conditions stabilize.  Analysts Predict Bitcoin Price Dump To $42,000 After Bitcoin’s brief decline below $70,000, analysts warn that further weakness may be imminent. Crypto expert Chiefy has forecasted that the Bitcoin price is preparing for another massive dump to $42,000 as early as next week.  With its price currently trading above $69,800, this would reflect a more than 40% crash. Chiefy notes that BTC’s slight recovery a few days ago was the final bull trap of this cycle and cautioned that things are about to get much worse. He urged investors and traders to prepare for a real bear market. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from $60,000. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,000 zone. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,500 and $67,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Holds Support Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $65,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,500 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $71,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,650 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level. The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $74,650.

Since reaching its current all-time-high price of $126,000 in October last year, the Bitcoin market has been on a sell-off, translating into surmounting bear pressure. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency has maintained a steady decline, falling until it recently reached $60,000 — a deviation of more than 52% from its all-time high.  Bitcoin currently seems to be seeing a rebound, but price action alone reflects that it could as well be one of its short-term recoveries. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that the current upward movement may be driven by a significant underlying metric. Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? What The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Is Saying In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Darkfost reveals that the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is now at a zone historically relevant to the ends of bear markets. The Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted performance metric that measures how much return an asset (Bitcoin, in this case) generates for risk taken. A high ratio signals that returns are strong in relation to risks taken; a declining ratio, on the other hand, reflects weakening returns, while risk remains elevated.  On the severe end of the metric, a very low or negative Sharpe Ratio is a sign that market participants are taking very high risks for poor or negative returns. It is worth noting that very low Sharpe ratios are frequently seen during deep bear markets or even capitulation phases. According to historical data, Darkfost explains that the Sharpe Ratio is currently at a level so low as to be reminiscent of the final phases of past bear markets. This means that the Bitcoin price holds a higher practical risk, compared to returns, for current investors.  Notably, the Sharpe ratio is not just at a low point, but continues in a steady state of decline. This, according to the market quant, is a sign that Bitcoin’s performance is yet to be attractive to any willing risk-taker.  However, it is this specific dynamic that sets the pace for a turnaround in Bitcoin’s price. This is because sustained poor returns typically force capitulation events, where weaker hands are flushed out; this eventually sets the stage for renewed accumulation among stronger hands. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak Two Main Approaches To Consider In This Scenario: Analyst Seeing as the current market condition is still mostly uncertain, Darkfost offers two ways to engage the current scenario. First, the analyst states that investors could begin increasing exposure gradually, and in line with the ratio’s movement towards lower risk zones. Second, Darkfost explains that a market participant could decide to wait for clear improvements in the Sharpe Ratio before entering the market at all. This is to serve as a confirmation strategy for the purpose of investor safety. However, Darkfost notes that the present bear phase could last a couple more months before any true reversal is seen, regardless of the signal being flashed by the Sharpe Ratio. As of this writing, Bitcoin stands at a $69,064 valuation. CoinMarketCap data reflects a 1.71% loss over the past day. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Recent on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price is currently at an important phase, raising suspicions as to whether the market is nearing a cyclical bottom.  Mayer Multiple Falls To 0.6 — What This Means In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Ruga Research pointed out that the Bitcoin price now has a 40% negative deviation from its 200-day moving average. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Drifts Into A Deep Conviction Zone, Smart Money Stays Patient For context, the Mayer Multiple metric tracks how far a coin’s current price is trading above or below its long-term trend. This indicator is able to achieve this by dividing the price by its 200-day moving average.  When the metric shows a reading of 1, it typically means that the Bitcoin price is trading approximately at the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, readings above 1 reflect that the Bitcoin price is at a premium relative to its long-term trend, while readings below 1 suggest that the price is trading at a discount. Historically, the metric has several thresholds in tandem with market conditions. For example, when the metric reaches levels above 2.4, it often signals that the Bitcoin price is at an overbought zone (also known as the bubble territory). As explained earlier, 1 – 1.5 represents the normal bull-market range, while 0.8 – 1.0 is typically the discount zone (where accumulation often occurs). Notably, when the price falls to regions below 0.8, it signals that the Bitcoin price has been oversold, as a result of capitulation events. Ruga Research revealed that the metric is currently at 0.6, reflecting an approximate 40% deviation below Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Hence, it is apparent that the Bitcoin price stands at a statistical extreme. Historical data where the Mayer Multiple fell to similar levels also adds credibility to this level’s relevance. In December 2018, the metric dropped to the 0.5 – 0.6 range (near Bitcoin’s market bottom around $3,200) before the price witnessed a more than 540% growth. Similarly, the metric fell to 0.5 owing to the COVID crash, followed by a recovery and expansion of the Bitcoin price by 1,100% in another 12-month period. This scenario also repeated in November 2022, with the Mayer Multiple falling to the same region, after which the BTC price soared by over 170%.  However, Ruga Research mentioned, as a caveat, that the metric does not precisely spot where and when a bottom will form, but merely reveals what to expect in the long-term. It is also possible that the metric could record further downside moves or see some consolidation before going to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $70,383, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Coinbase Premium Turns Positive Since Mid-January As Bitcoin Sees Price Relief Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is navigating one of its deepest conviction zones yet, a phase that tests nerves more than it screams opportunity. While prices drift and fear dominates the market, smart money quietly accumulates, laying the groundwork for the next potential trend shift.  Testing Conviction: Bitcoin In One Of Its Deepest Bear Market Zones Over the past few weeks, volatility has intensified, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall sharply. Marcus Corvinus highlighted that Bitcoin is trading in one of the deepest bear market zones in history, an area that doesn’t shout buy now but instead tests conviction and patience. These are the zones where price can drift aimlessly, bleed, and frustrate traders for weeks or even months. It’s not a sign of weakness; rather, strong hands are quietly accumulating while fear dominates the market narrative. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows These phases are always messy and uncomfortable. Sentiment is crushed, capitulation feels endless, and confidence is at its lowest. Retail traders often panic or step aside during these times, which is exactly why these opportunities are so often missed.  The real shift in trend rarely begins with hype or dramatic rallies. Instead, it starts with stabilization, absorption, and subtle recovery signals that are only visible to those who are patient. Quiet accumulation, a slowing of selling pressure, and small rebounds all hint that the market may be preparing for its next meaningful move. History doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It punishes doubt before it rewards belief. Marcus concludes that he is watching this zone very closely. While it won’t last forever, when it finally ends, most market participants will wish they had paid attention. The opportunity lies in recognizing the signals while others are blinded by fear and frustration. Resistance Holds At $71,000 — What It Means For Bulls Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin is moving largely as expected. As previously mentioned, a pullback from the $61,000–$58,000 zone toward the $70,000–$67,000 area was likely, and that scenario has unfolded precisely as predicted. The market reacted within this range, confirming the anticipated short-term price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows Crypto Candy also highlighted that although BTC touched $71,000, it was unable to close above that level on the daily timeframe. This reinforces the idea that until Bitcoin decisively reclaims this zone, short-term retracements remain the primary expectation. Looking ahead, Crypto Candy emphasized that a bullish scenario can only be considered in the short term if BTC closes above $71,000. Until that happens, the market may continue to test lower ranges, and retracements from the current zone are expected. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The price of Bitcoin experienced one of the most bearish periods in its history over the past week, losing one crucial technical level after the other. According to data, the cryptocurrency market has seen $1 trillion worth of capital flow out since mid-January. With no doubt about the emergence of the bear season, investors are now approaching the market with greater skepticism and caution. One of the on-chain metrics highlighting this shift in behavior is the Bitcoin taker buy ratio, which has fallen to new lows. BTC Taker Buy Ratio Drops To 0.48 In a new Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain shared a fresh on-chain angle to the ongoing selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. This observation is based on the declining Taker Buy Ratio on Binance, the world’s largest centralized exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ The Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio is a sentiment indicator that estimates the proportion of trading volume owned by buyers against that of the sellers. Typically, values below 1 signal that taker sell volumes (aggressive selling) are outpacing taker buy volumes, which implies that sellers are overwhelming the buyers in the market. Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio (14-day Moving Average) on Binance has dropped to 0.48, marking its lowest level since October 2025. Such a negative market sentiment on the world’s largest exchange spotlights a worrying trend in the general derivatives market. CryptoOnchain said:  A drop to such a significant low suggests that sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the order book, aggressively hitting bids without sufficient buying resistance. As the crypto pundit also pointed out, this drop in the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio coincided with the recent price correction, which saw the premier cryptocurrency fall to around $61,000. CryptoOnchain noted that this metric needs to stabilize and begin to rise again if the BTC price is to see any relief. The Quicktake post concluded: For a potential reversal or a local bottom, we need to see this metric stabilize and begin to trend upwards, indicating that aggressive selling is exhausted and buyers are stepping back in. Until then, caution is advised as the momentum remains heavily in favor of the bears. Bitcoin Price At A Glance After one of the largest “red” days in the crypto market, the price of BTC appears to be recovering nicely, having returned above the $70,000 on Friday. As of this writing, the flagship cryptocurrency is valued at around $70,263, reflecting an over 11% price jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market?   Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Crypto expert Tony Severino has opined that Bitcoin isn’t just showing signs of a yearly top but also that the BTC price may have hit a 16-year cyclical peak. This comes amid the flagship crypto’s recent crash to $60,000, which sparked fears of a bear market. Bitcoin May Be Showing Signs Of A Peak Amid BTC Price Crash To $60,000 In an X post, Severino alluded to the yearly Bitcoin chart, which he said looks like a 16-year cyclical peak rather than just a yearly top. The expert also outlined several reasons this appears to be a major cyclical top for the BTC price. First, he noted that the white candlesticks have been decreasing in size over time, while black candlesticks engulf more white candles with each appearance.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Furthermore, Severino highlighted the Doji at the top of a rising wedge pattern while the Evening Star is in progress, which is a bearish reversal signal for the BTC price. Meanwhile, the Fischer Transform is crossing bearish with divergence, and the Stochastic is crossing bearish after being rejected from 80. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling back below 70 after making it above this level on the highest timeframe chart.  His analysis comes as the BTC price continues to decline, suggesting the crypto market may be in a bear market after topping last October. Bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 earlier this week, suffering its largest daily decline since the FTX collapse. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also opined that Bitcoin is in a bear market, predicting that it could still drop to as low as $42,000 before it sees a bottom.  Reason For The Recent BTC Crash BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has commented on the reason for this recent Bitcoin crash, suggesting that it was due to external factors rather than part of an ongoing bear market. In an X post, he stated that the BTC price dump was probably due to a dealer hedging off the back of BlackRock’s BTC ETF structured products. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a record trading volume of $10 billion on the day of this crash to $60,000.  Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 Hayes’ comment comes on the back of Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000, with the flagship crypto recording one of its largest ever daily gains yesterday following the crash to $60,000. Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, suggested that the drop to $60,000 may mark the bottom for the BTC price. This came as he noted that the 200-week MA, which is around $60,000, has historically been a strong entry point for long-term investors.  At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $70,000, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price displayed a staggering show of bearish pressure over the week. As the premier cryptocurrency lost its footing around the $84,000 support level, it entered a slippery slide, reaching approximately $60,000. Currently, the market is in recovery mode, with its price rising again to $70,000. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation has emerged, lending more credence to expectations of a price rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues MVRV Data Reveals Bitcoin Market Is Under ‘Severe Stress’ In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, popular market analyst Darkfost postulates that the recent Bitcoin price action has given an apparently strong buy signal. This is based on data from the Bitcoin: MVRV Percentile – Current Cycle (0-100%) indicator. For context, this metric shows where Bitcoin’s current MVRV ratio ranks in the ongoing cycle, relative to all past values. This serves as a means to identify whether the market is historically undervalued or overheated. According to Darkfost, the MVRV sits within the 0 to 10 % percentile. This is a notably low level for the present Bitcoin cycle, seeing as the MVRV has held higher levels than the current value for more than 90% of this cycle’s period. Practically, readings around this level indicate that the majority of Bitcoin holders are doing so with minimal unrealized profits, or even outright losses, compared to their cost bases. This is often a telltale sign that the Bitcoin market has experienced a period of extreme stress, accompanied by multiple liquidations and investor exhaustion. However, this period is only part of a broader cyclical trend. Darkfost explains that the Bitcoin market (like other big assets) tends to enter overheated phases, followed by corrections, and then overstressed phases, which have often preceded bullish recoveries. Notably, transitions out of the 0–10% MVRV range have often been followed by price stabilization and eventual upwards movement. On the other hand, the 90% zone often represents overheated market conditions, which precedes heavy profit-taking activity and subsequent correction.  Although MVRV data alone does not singularly confirm that the Bitcoin price would achieve a full-scale recovery, it indicates strong potential for a positive momentum boost to reclaim key valuation levels. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 Bitcoin Price Overview  As of press time, Bitcoin trades for approximately $67,855. According to CoinMarketCap data, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has recovered by more than 4.00% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 38.16% and valued at $88.37 billion.  Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity.  According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply.  These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps.  None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement.  Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products.  One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product.  While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens.  This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases.  According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard.  Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades.  Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain.  What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility. Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital. Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point. Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide. Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly. The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure after losing the $70K region, a level that had previously acted as both psychological and technical support. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, with price briefly touching the $60K zone before stabilizing near $65.9K. This move confirms a breakdown from the prior consolidation range and shifts focus toward whether this decline represents a deeper bear phase or a late-cycle correction. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K–$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide.  Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset.  The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually.  However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it.  He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets.  Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity.  Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash.  If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has continued to decline recently, with its value now hitting the lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Deep Inside Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tracks the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Loss Nears $900 Million, Highest Since FTX Crash The index determines the trader mentality using the data of the following five factors: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it makes use of a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the indicator is above 53, it means the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. On the other hand, the metric being under 47 suggests the dominance of fear. Naturally, the index lying between these two cutoffs implies a neutral mentality is shared by the majority. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ regions called the extreme fear (25 and below) and extreme greed (above 75). After the recent market downturn, sentiment among cryptocurrency traders has deteriorated into the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 9 at the moment, which is a pretty low level. In fact, this level is so deep into extreme fear that this is the first time in the current cycle that the metric has reached it. Below is a chart that shows how the current level of extreme fear lines up against the indicator’s historical data. From the graph, it’s visible that the last time the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reached a value this low was back in June 2022, right in the middle of that year’s bear market. The latest drop in the metric to a single-digit value is a result of the price drawdown that BTC and other cryptocurrencies have faced since the last week of January. This decline in sentiment, however, may not be such a bad thing for the sector, if history is to go by. Often, an extremely fearful market facilitates bottom formations as underwater investors capitulate and resolute hands pick up their coins. During a bear market, however, the Fear & Greed Index is usually inside the zone for a notable duration before a bottom is reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours If the recent shift in the sector reflects a transition to a bear market, then it only remains to be seen how long mood will be in extreme fear before relief arrives for Bitcoin and company. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,100, down 19% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle.  Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov  According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026.  What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Loss has spiked to its highest level since November 2022 as investors have capitulated after the price crash. Bitcoin Realized Loss Has Hit A Value Of $889 Million In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that investors on the network are ‘realizing’ with their transactions. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold to see at what price it changed hands before this. If the previous selling price was greater than the latest spot price for any token, then its sale is considered to be resulting in some loss realization. The exact degree of loss involved in the transaction is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss sums up this value for all loss transfers to find the total for the network. A counterpart indicator called the Realized Profit deals with the transactions of the opposite type (that is, those with a cost basis lower than the latest selling value). Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Loss has witnessed a sharp spike recently, implying investors have participated in a notable amount of loss-taking. Something to note is that the version of the metric used by the analytics firm here is the “entity-adjusted” one, meaning that it only tracks transactions occurring between two different entities, rather than just two addresses. Glassnode defines an “entity” to be a cluster of addresses that it has determined to belong to the same owner. In the context of the Realized Loss, the entity-adjusted indicator filters out transactions occurring between the wallets of the same investor. These naturally never involve a true realization of loss (or profit), so removing them from the data provides a more accurate representation of the market. Applying for this filtration, the 7-day MA Realized Loss hit a peak value of $889 million on Wednesday. This is the highest single-day spike in the metric since November 2022, when the market crashed to the bear market bottom following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The latest investor capitulation has arrived as Bitcoin has been in freefall, with its price now breaking below the $70,000 level. It now remains to be seen whether the loss-taking will sustain or if investor panic will subside in the coming days. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken a blow of more than 21% over the past week that has taken its price to the $66,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period.  Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates.  Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination.  Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month.  BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price is currently trading under immense bearish pressure, and the downtrend might not yet be over. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended corrective phase that began after Bitcoin topped out at $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different outlooks as to when the correction will reach a bottom.  Amid the uncertainty, an outlook from a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on X, as it points to historical market bottoms that suggest Bitcoin may still be headed significantly lower. Past Drawdowns Show A Clear Pattern Across Bitcoin Cycles Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during past bear markets and how those declines have changed as the asset has matured over the years. According to the data he highlighted, Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle saw a drawdown of about 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure reduced to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to around 77% during the 2022 bear market.  Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details The consistent takeaway from these cycles is that each successive drawdown has been smaller than the last. This isn’t surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have been growing in size, liquidity, and participation over time. Using that trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should drop from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown compresses to about 70% in the current cycle, measured from the $126,000 all-time high, then the bottom would land around the $38,000 region. Dismissing Higher Bottom Targets Like $69,000 And $50,000 The projection by Sherlock received a lot of views and comments on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and increased institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, Bitcoin’s next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60%, instead of 70%. Sherlock pushed back on that view by noting how reflexivity can amplify downside moves just as easily as it causes rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Quickly Revisit $81,000 Again After The Crash For the time being, Bitcoin is caught between aggressive sell-offs and growing concern that the larger corrective phase is not complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having rebounded from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko.  The recent price action means Bitcoin is back to trading at its lowest levels since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would represent a return to price levels last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com