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Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on market sentiment and momentum. After months of volatility, recent price action suggests a fragile structure, with buyers repeatedly failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. Analysts increasingly warn that downside risks remain elevated as short-term investors continue to absorb losses rather than stepping in aggressively to accumulate. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework A recent report from analyst Axel Adler highlights mounting stress among short-term holders. Data from the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR indicator shows that many participants are now realizing losses, with this cohort sitting roughly 25% below their average acquisition cost. The SOPR metric, which compares selling price to purchase price, has dropped to 0.949, while its 7-day average remains near 0.97. Values below 1.0 confirm that coins are being sold at a loss, often reflecting forced liquidations or reactive selling behavior. Notably, the indicator has stayed below this threshold since mid-January, signaling sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction. Historically, prolonged SOPR weakness alongside price stabilization can indicate seller exhaustion. However, a decisive move back above 1.0 would be required to confirm a shift in market regime. Until then, the risk of further downside cannot be ruled out. Short-Term Holder MVRV Signals Deep Unrealized Losses Axel Adler also points to the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator as further evidence of mounting stress among recent market participants. This metric compares the current market price with the average acquisition price of short-term holders, offering a clear view of unrealized profitability. When MVRV falls below 1.0, it indicates that this cohort is, on average, holding positions at a loss rather than in profit. Recent data shows the STH MVRV dropping sharply to around 0.752, with the cohort’s realized price near $95,400. With Bitcoin trading close to $71,700, short-term holders are roughly 25% underwater. The gap between market price and their cost basis—about $23,700—is currently the widest observed in this cycle, highlighting the scale of recent downside pressure. Historically, MVRV readings approaching or falling below the 0.8 level have often coincided with accumulation phases or local market bottoms. However, such signals are not sufficient on their own. Confirmation typically requires price stabilization alongside a recovery in SOPR above 1.0, indicating that forced selling has eased. Until those conditions emerge, the data suggests continued fragility despite increasing signs of capitulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Transfer Surge Mirrors 2018 And 2021 Peaks – What Happens Next? Bitcoin Breaks Key Weekly Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows clear deterioration after price decisively broke below the mid-range support that had previously held near the $75K area. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, pushing BTC toward the $70K zone while trading well below the 50-week moving average. Historically, sustained trading under this average tends to coincide with corrective or transitional bear phases rather than bullish continuation. The 100-week moving average, currently positioned slightly above $80K, has shifted from support to resistance. The market requires a reclaim of this level to stabilize sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-week average continues to trend upward near the $55K–$60K region, marking a deeper macro support band if selling pressure persists. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase Volume expansion accompanying the latest decline suggests active distribution rather than low-liquidity drift. However, capitulation phases often show similar volume characteristics, meaning interpretation depends on whether follow-through selling continues or begins to fade. Structurally, BTC now faces a critical test. Holding above the $68K–$70K range could allow consolidation before a potential recovery attempt. Failure to stabilize there would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward longer-term moving average support, keeping the broader market cautious despite growing oversold conditions. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that the stress could spread more broadly across the sector.  The number of publicly traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long-term.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly.  As a result, Bitcoin has slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major Companies Suffer  Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday.  In December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support dividend payments.  The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices.  Alt5 Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price extended its decline to $60,000. BTC is down over 10% and might struggle to recover easily above the $70,000 resistance. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $62,500 and $61,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Sharply Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $72,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $70,000 and $68,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $65,500. A low was formed at $60,500, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a minor increase above the $62,000 and $63,200 levels. The price cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,865 swing high to the $60,500 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $62,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $66,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $67,200 level. A close above the $67,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,865 swing high to the $60,500 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,500 and $75,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $63,200 level. The first major support is near the $62,500 level. The next support is now near the $61,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $60,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $62,500, followed by $61,200. Major Resistance Levels – $67,200 and $68,500.

Crypto analyst Coinvo has revealed that the Bitcoin price has just hit a 15-year trendline following its latest crash to around $70,000. He declared this a buying opportunity, noting that the trendline has historically held on four prior occasions in past cycles.  Bitcoin Price Hits 15-Year Trendline Against Gold In an X post, Coinvo stated that the Bitcoin price has hit the same RSI trendline on its gold chart as in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. He further noted that this development has historically created a buying opportunity, as BTC has consistently outperformed gold when this happens. He urged market participants not to miss this as it is the “biggest opportunity” they have ever had.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Test Resistance At $80,600 After Bottoming At $74,000 His statement comes as the Bitcoin price crashed to a new yearly low at around $70,000, with the leading crypto asset now down over 19% year-to-date (YTD). Based on Coinvo’s analysis, this may mark the bottom for BTC despite concerns that the crypto market may be entering a deep bear market. In another X post, the analyst stated that the Bitcoin price is set to repeat the entire 2023 rally. He noted that the same pattern as in 2023 is playing out now, with BTC hitting the 200-day EMA, which marked a bear-market bottom back then by flipping into support. Coinvo added that most people are too focused on the bearish noise, but urged market participants not to let it obscure the truth, as Bitcoin is going higher.  However, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the Bitcoin price could still drop lower, having crashed below its April 2025 low. He noted that in the previous cycles, when BTC fell below the 100-week SMA, it crashed straight to the 200-week SMA before any relief bounce occurred.  BTC Could Still Crash To As Low As $63,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared an accompanying chart showing that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as $63,000. This came as he noted that the nature of BTC’s decline, with eight consecutive days of lower lows and highs, indicates campaign selling rather than retail liquidation.  He noted that he has observed this pattern several times and that it is difficult to determine when it ends. Crypto analyst PlanB highlighted potential bear-market scenarios for BTC. He stated that an 80% drawdown from the current all-time high (ATH) could put the Bitcoin price at $25,000. Furthermore, a drop to the 200-week MA and current realized price could mean a crash to between $50,000 and $60,000. Meanwhile, a crash to the previous cycle’s ATH could mean that $70,000 is the bottom.  Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $70,700, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has gone through an intense bout of volatility over the past few days, with a violent sell-off that has dragged its price into the $70,000 range. The move wiped out short-term bullish positioning and forced the price below several intraday support levels. Although there are risks of further downside, Bitcoin is now looking to stabilize and push to reclaim important reference levels. A technical outlook suggests that a path back to the $81,000 region could open up faster than expected if certain conditions are met. Sweep Of The Yearly Low One of the most important developments on the chart is the sweep of the last yearly candle low around $74,456. That move flushed liquidity resting below prior lows and was a clear downside grab that had been waiting for months.  Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details In terms of a market-structure perspective, this type of sweep is a reset point that clears weak hands and allows price to build a more stable base. The bounce that followed pushed Bitcoin back to $77,000, a move that shows buyers were willing to defend the area after the liquidation event. This is now transitioning into a decision zone, which is where the next directional move becomes more important. As noted by crypto analyst Minga on the social media platform X, Bitcoin went back to testing the weekly open just below $77,000. Holding above it would mean that the recovery has real follow-through, which in turn would allow the price to revisit the monthly open at $78,700. The chart shared by the analyst also shows multiple equal highs stacked above that region, right within the previous range low. Together, these elements form a pocket of unfinished business. If Bitcoin reclaims and sustains acceptance above the weekly open, the probability of a push through the monthly open increases, with that momentum then potentially carrying price into the $80,000s, where prior range liquidity is around $81,000. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @Mingarithm on X Related Reading: Where’s XRP Price Headed As Exchange Reserves Plunge To 1.7 Billion? Downside Scenario And The Relief Bounce Zone Below There is a valid alternate path if Bitcoin’s advances continue to reject at the weekly open, which is looking like the case in the current price action. In that case, there is a deeper downside target between $70,800 and $69,100. This area stands out as a high-confluence zone that aligns with a higher-timeframe order block, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, and the last cycle’s all-time high in 2021.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,930, down by 7.2% in the past 24 hours and is now at risk of losing $70,000. If price holds above this zone after the current test, then Bitcoin is likely to transition into a range before attempting continuation and breaking above $81,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has finally swept the sell-side liquidity that had been building beneath the market, driving price into a deep demand zone where stronger buyers are expected to step in. With the downside move now largely complete, attention shifts to whether this level can spark a meaningful reaction or mark the start of a broader reset. Why The 100-Week SMA Remains A Proven Bitcoin Accumulation Zone Crypto analyst Brett emphasized that accumulating Bitcoin below the 100-week Simple Moving Average has repeatedly proven to be one of the most reliable long-term investment strategies. According to the expert, this zone has historically marked periods of maximum pessimism, where risk-to-reward strongly favors patient buyers rather than short-term traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says Brett explained that his personal approach deliberately avoids trying to pinpoint the exact market bottom. Instead, he focuses on steady accumulation by placing buy orders across a wide range between $55,000 and $75,000, supported by daily recurring purchases. For investors with a more conservative mindset, Brett pointed out that waiting for confirmation can be just as effective. Looking at past cycles, Brett noted that buying after Bitcoin moves back above the 100-week SMA has consistently delivered strong returns. He stressed that BTC has never fallen below the previous cycle’s 100-week SMA, reinforcing its importance as a structural support level. Those who followed this strategy in prior market cycles are now sitting on significant long-term profits. Breakdown Confirmed As Key Lows Failed To Hold According to the latest BTC Heatmap update by Columbus, the market has followed the exact trajectory previously mapped out. Columbus notes that the inability of the local lows to hold, combined with weak reactions on the tape, signaled that the liquidity stacked below would act as a magnet. Consequently, the continuation leg played out as an inevitable result of this structural weakness. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now In his analysis of the current price action, Columbus highlights that Bitcoin is now trading directly within a cluster of heavier bids located around the low-$70,000 region. The analyst identifies this specific zone as the first area where a “real reaction” is likely to occur, as it represents a significant concentration of buy-side interest. For Columbus, the sweep into these deeper pockets was the necessary clearing event to reach this primary demand zone. Columbus concludes that since the anticipated downside has fully played out, the focus now shifts entirely to the immediate response from buyers. With the liquidity targets hit and the price sitting on heavy support, Columbus is now closely watching for a definitive reaction to determine if this level will provide the foundation for the next leg of the trend. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its sharp sell‑off on Thursday, briefly falling below the $67,000 level and marking its lowest price since November 2024.  The renewed pressure follows commentary from market analyst Hugo Crypto, who pointed to a recent report from investment bank Stifel outlining a notably bearish outlook for Bitcoin.  Deeper Bitcoin Drawdown Ahead? According to Stifel’s analysis, the leading cryptocurrency could continue declining toward $38,000. If reached, that target would represent an additional drop of roughly 43% from current levels and would place Bitcoin back at prices last seen in January 2024. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Stifel’s forecast is built on several macro and market‑specific factors. The firm cited the impact of tighter US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, ongoing uncertainty and stagnation around US crypto regulation, shrinking market liquidity, and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs).  The bank also framed its outlook within the context of historical Bitcoin market cycles. According to Stifel, Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025 fits a familiar pattern seen in prior cycles, which have typically been followed by extended and deep drawdowns.  Additional warnings were echoed by market observer Walter Bloomberg, who highlighted weakening demand, a sharp slowdown in ETF inflows, and growing stress in derivatives markets.  Futures markets, in particular, appear to be entering what he describes as a “forced deleveraging” phase, where leveraged positions are unwound rapidly, adding to selling pressure. BTC Faces Key Technical Test ETF data from Thursday further illustrates the strain on market sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have so far recorded net outflows of approximately 7,925 BTC on the day, equivalent to about $533 million.  Over the past seven days, net outflows have totaled roughly 19,090 BTC, or around $1.28 billion, reinforcing concerns that institutional demand is fading rather than providing support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash To $72,000 Signals Major Reset: On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate From a technical perspective, analyst MartyParty highlighted the importance of the $68,000 level, which Bitcoin would need to reclaim to stabilize in the near term. This area aligns with the 200‑week exponential moving average, a level often viewed as critical during major market corrections.  Failure to hold above that zone could open the door to a move toward the 200‑week simple moving average, currently near $58,000, according to technical analysts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $67,100, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 20% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn.  The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins.  Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market.  Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market.  With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases.  Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness.  Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction.  Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds.  Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize around the $75,000 level as broader market weakness continues to weigh on price action. After weeks of sustained selling pressure, volatility has compressed, but confidence has not yet returned. Traders remain cautious, liquidity is thinner, and upside attempts have so far failed to gain traction. The current environment reflects a market searching for equilibrium rather than signaling a clear reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase According to On-Chain Mind, assessing whether Bitcoin is approaching a bear market bottom requires shifting focus away from short-term price moves and toward structural stress across the network. In prior cycles, true capitulation did not occur until the majority of participants were deeply underwater. This condition is captured by the Cap Loss Ratio, a metric that compares Realized Cap—Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis—to Market Cap. When the ratio spikes, it reflects widespread unrealized losses and collective pain across holders. Historically, these spikes have coincided with moments of maximum pessimism, when forced selling, exhausted demand, and broad capitulation aligned to form durable bottoms. The key question now is whether the current drawdown is sufficient to trigger that level of stress, or if further downside is required to fully reset the market. With Bitcoin hovering near critical support, On-Chain Mind poses the central question facing investors today: are we approaching a bear market bottom, or is the market still early in its capitulation phase? Cap Loss Ratio Signals Capitulation Still Ahead On-Chain Mind notes that the historical behavior of the Cap Loss Ratio provides a useful framework for judging where Bitcoin may sit within a bear market cycle. In previous downturns, the metric reached progressively lower peak levels as the market matured. During the 2015 bear market, the Cap Loss Ratio spiked above 0.5, reflecting extreme network-wide distress and deep, prolonged capitulation. In the 2018–2019 cycle, the peak was lower, around 0.4, while the 2022 bear market topped out closer to 0.3. This steady reduction in peak stress suggests diminishing severity across cycles, likely driven by a more diversified holder base, stronger long-term conviction, and improved market infrastructure. If this pattern continues, On-Chain Mind argues that final capitulation in the current cycle would most likely occur with the Cap Loss Ratio somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2. Crucially, the market has not reached that zone yet. Current readings imply that while significant pain has already been absorbed, aggregate losses across the network are still below levels historically associated with definitive bottoms. The market faces additional downside and further stress before it reaches a full reset. At the same time, history shows that the 0.1–0.2 range has often marked areas where long-term, high-conviction entries emerge. These zones tend to coincide with maximum pessimism, declining participation, and forced selling exhaustion. For investors focused on structure rather than short-term price action, this framework helps define where risk remains elevated—and where generational opportunities have previously formed. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Profit-Taking Collapses: Is Smart Money Done Selling? Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Weekly Trend Weakens Bitcoin is trading near the $75,000 area after a sharp rejection from higher levels, confirming a clear shift in market structure on the weekly timeframe. The chart reveals that BTC has decisively broken the rising trend previously sustained by the 50-week moving average. Price is now trading below both the 50-week (blue) and the 100-week (green) moving averages. This historically signals a transition from trend continuation into a corrective or distributive phase. The recent breakdown followed a failed attempt to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 zone. Which previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. This failure accelerated selling pressure and pushed the price toward the $74,000–$75,000 region. A level that coincides with prior consolidation and psychological support. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? Despite the weakness, Bitcoin remains above the 200-week moving average (red), which continues to slope upward and currently sits well below the price. From a long-term perspective, this confirms that the macro uptrend remains intact. However, momentum clearly favors the downside in the medium term. If $74,000 fails to hold, the chart indicates a deeper retracement toward the low $60,000s, where stronger historical demand resides. Conversely, any recovery attempt must first reclaim the 100-week moving average to shift the structure back toward neutrality. For now, the chart reflects a market under pressure, testing whether buyers are willing to defend this critical zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows calls for sub-$60,000 Bitcoin prices have seen a rise on social media recently, a sign that fear is brewing among retail traders. Bitcoin Social Volume Data Suggests Growth In Bearish Calls In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media users have reacted to the recent bearish price action. The indicator of relevance here is the “Social Volume,” measuring the total number of posts on the major social media platforms that contain mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Compresses To Levels Last Seen Near $29,000 To separate between bullish and bearish predictions, Santiment has filtered the Social Volume of Bitcoin with terms referencing certain price levels. For the bullish side, the analytics firm has chosen levels in the $90,000 to $99,000 range, while for the bearish one, $50,000 to $59,000. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Social Volume related to the two types of Bitcoin market calls has changed during the latest price volatility: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume for levels above $90,000 spiked toward the end of last month, suggesting social media users were expecting the cryptocurrency to revisit the higher levels. What followed the spike, however, was a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Then, on the last day of the month, the trend flipped as bearish calls observed a sharp surge instead. BTC’s decline temporarily cooled alongside this and prices saw a small rebound. This pattern of Bitcoin going in the direction that goes against the opinion of the majority is actually something that has been witnessed throughout history. Naturally, it doesn’t always happen, but the chances of a reversal tend to go up whenever the traders are leaning into one direction too heavily. From the chart, it’s visible that social media users have recently once again started leaning in on a direction, and, like the last time, they are fearing sub-$60,000 price levels. The analytics firm explained: Markets move opposite to what the crowd expects, meaning there can at least be founded arguments for a short-term relief rally while retail is already assuming sub-$60K Bitcoin is a foregone conclusion. It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will develop in the near future, given the rise in fearful sentiment that has occurred on the various social media platforms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says In some other news, the Bitcoin supply sitting on centralized exchanges has been on the rise recently, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has highlighted in an X post. As data of the Exchange Reserve indicator shows, 34,000 BTC has returned to exchanges since January 19th. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to slide down as its price has now reached the $73,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price extended its decline below $73,500. BTC is now consolidating losses but faces many hurdles near $75,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $72,000 and $71,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $75,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $74,000 and $73,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $72,500. A low was formed at $71,532, and the price is now consolidating losses. The current price action is negative below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $72,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,850 level. The first key resistance is near the $74,200 level. A close above the $74,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $75,000 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,500 level and the trend line. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,850 and $78,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $72,000 level. The first major support is near the $71,200 level. The next support is now near the $70,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $70,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $72,000, followed by $71,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,850 and $74,200.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has fallen to its lowest level in years following the price crash below the $80,000 level. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plummeted Recently In a new post on X, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has discussed about the latest trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, an indicator that aims to estimate whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued based on how its market cap compares against its Realized Cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says The “Realized Cap” is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, what this model represents is the amount of capital that investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the market cap represents the value being held by them in the present. The MVRV Z-Score takes the difference between the two and divides it by the standard deviation of the market cap. When the value of the metric is highly positive, it suggests that the market cap is significantly higher than the Realized Cap. In other words, it indicates the investors are in a notable amount of profit. On the other hand, the indicator being inside the negative zone implies the dominance of loss among holders. Now, here is the chart shared by Beamish that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score over the last several years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has faced a steep drop as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its latest drawdown. The metric has now slipped below the 1 level, although its value still remains above zero, meaning investors continue to be in net profits. The degree of profitability, however, is quite low compared to the average for the last few years. The last time that the MVRV Z-Score was at levels this low was in October 2023, when the asset was still trading near $29,000. “This is a solid reset in unrealised profitability, with the market reverting toward fair value after the prior expansion,” noted the analyst. In the previous cycle, when the MVRV Z-Score saw compression to similar levels, Bitcoin went on to slide further as the 2022 bear market tightened its grip. The cryptocurrency eventually reached its lows after a period of stay in the zone below the 0 level. It now remains to be seen what trajectory the coin will follow in this cycle. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Fate Hinges On This Support Level, Analyst Warns The latest market downturn hasn’t only affected unrealized investor gains, realized profits have also shrunk, as pointed out by Glassnode in an X post. The 90-day moving average (MA) of the ratio between realized profits and losses on the Bitcoin network has declined to 1.5, not far from the neutral 1 level. According to Glassnode, this reflects “progressively thinner liquidity conditions.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, down 15% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Months ago, a prominent crypto analyst outlined a precise window where the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downside phase. At the time, the projection seemed extreme. Now, with price behavior beginning to align with that roadmap, the analyst has released a far more expansive update — one that not only reinforces the crash call but also maps what comes before and after the next major pivot. Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset In the update shared on X, the analyst integrates yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to define both the potential magnitude of decline and the timing of the next pivot. On the yearly timeframe, Bitcoin sits in what he labels an extreme risk zone ahead of a projected pivot around February 2. The structure is left-translated with distributive price action — a formation linked to late-cycle weakness. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash He compares the current setup to a previous harmonic phase where Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its all-time high before reaching the same pivot window. That decline produced a rebound of about 40% but failed to reach a new all-time high, suggesting the February pivot may bring relief rather than expansion. He also identifies a macro risk window from April to September 2026. On the monthly cycle, the analyst marks a decisive pivot around December 22. Historical drawdowns in similar harmonics were 56%, 77%, and 34%, depending on the cycle context. The 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement formed a mid-bull cycle. Upside rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later 158% expansion, showing that monthly harmonics often host the sharpest price dislocations. On the weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot appears around November 19. Past pullbacks ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by upside expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, providing the tactical signals traders may rely on for short-term adjustments within the broader trend. What’s More: Refined Crash Targets And The Bottom Window Beyond confirming the original crash call, the analyst refines the downside roadmap by synchronizing all three cycles. When harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance increase. While the full drawdown ranges 20%–77%, he narrows the likely decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high, noting deeper bear-market conditions are not yet confirmed. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Continue To Decline If This Doesn’t Happen; Analyst The November weekly pivot appears too early for a macro bottom, with higher-timeframe pressure likely pushing the true pivot into January. A late-November dead-cat bounce is possible before further downside. Key levels: $90,000 (~30% drop) for November, $72,000 (~43% below the high) for January, with further support at $45,000 and $28,000 if selling intensifies. The analyst remains cautious, noting the last comparable yearly harmonic rallied 40% without surpassing the all-time high, with similar limits expected before the May–September 2026 risk window. However, while his four-month-old crash call held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is far from over—investors should prepare for further downside and a multi-stage recovery shaping the next macro cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Recent market data has shown that Bitcoin has been trading at an extended discount on Coinbase. Over the past several months, this negative premium, where BTC prices on Coinbase sit below the international average level, has remained consistent. Such prolonged discounts have historically coincided with periods of market uncertainty or late-stage corrections. How Coinbase Premium Remains Negative For Months Bitcoin has been trading at a persistent discount on Coinbase for the past 3 months. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out on X that this typically reflects large ETF outflows and sustained selling pressure from the US-based investors, which has put pressure on a discount to appear.  Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows These conditions are not unusual and have appeared nearly every market downturn or larger range. Thus, this broader market recovery needs the support of ETF inflows and renewed bidding from the US investors to surge higher.  For this reason, monitoring the Coinbase premium and discount is important to know when the price flips around. A stronger directional trend combined with steep discounts or premiums often reinforces the prevailing market move. A Relief Rally Could Buy The Market Time Until October Bitcoin has now broken below its April 2025 low, placing the market at an important inflection point. The CEO and founder of ITC_Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, noted that if the price fails to bounce soon, this could turn into a difficult midterm year. However, if the price can bounce back, it would likely provide the market several months of relief, pushing price action to October and potentially aligning with a more durable bottoming process. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Lack Of New Capital Leaves It Vulnerable To Continued Selling Pressure According to Benjamin, the bearish narrative has been dominant for an extended period, which increases the probability of a countertrend rally that could temporarily restore confidence among bulls. Meanwhile, Benjamin has cautioned against attempting to trade such moves. Furthermore, countertrend rallies often occur unexpectedly, not when market participants are actively anticipating them. A sweep of prior lows would offer short-term relief, even during the bull market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC broke below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price moved straight down to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief occurred. From a broader perspective, Benjamin emphasized that the optimal time to sell BTC was late last year, not during panic-driven sell-offs in a midterm year. His focus remains on the larger cycle, suggesting that late Q3 to early Q4 will be a more favorable window to move real money back into the market. Until then, it is just traders trying to make money during difficult times, attempting to trade the support and resistance levels. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain has pointed out how data could suggest that the latest Bitcoin decline is part of a deeper bear market progression, rather than the final capitulation event. Bitcoin Has Broken Below Both True Market Mean & Average ETF Cost Basis In a new post on X, Checkonchain has talked about the recent bearish action in the Bitcoin price. As the below chart shared by the analytics firm shows, this drawdown has taken the cryptocurrency below two key on-chain cost basis levels. The first level that Bitcoin dropped under was the ETF Cost Basis, corresponding to the average inflow price of the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Before this, the asset had stayed above the line since the second half of 2024. A close call came in the last quarter of 2025, but the level had ended up acting as a support cushion. This time around, however, the price went straight through the line. After the ETF Cost Basis was broken, the next level Bitcoin lost was the True Market Mean, a metric tracking the average buying price of the economically active BTC supply. Thus, the break also sent the majority of the asset’s active investors into a state of net unrealized loss for the first time since 2023. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Fate Hinges On This Support Level, Analyst Warns While the price drawdown so far has clearly induced a lot of market pain, it may not be enough yet, as Checkonchain has noted, “the underlying data suggests this is progression deeper into the bear, not the final capitulation event.” The analytics firm has listed a few metrics pointing to this. First, the spot ETFs have faced negative netflows recently, but while the outflows have been sizeable, they have still lacked the character associated with the panic exodus witnessed at the end of a cycle. Likewise, on-chain losses have observed an increase as the market crash has occurred, but they also haven’t yet reached a level that may be considered to be a reflection of a true capitulation event. Finally, futures market data suggests traders have still been trying to catch the bottom. Checkonchain has described these conditions as “a regime where durable lows rarely form.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike In 2 Years This speculation from futures traders has been resulting in mass liquidations on the various exchanges. During the past day alone, long Bitcoin bets worth $50 million have been liquidated as the price has seen a swing from around $79,000 to levels under $76,500, according to data from CoinGlass. In total, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has witnessed the flush of $185 million in long positions inside this window. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,100, down nearly 14% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025 and is now moving through a correction phase following the local peak near $125,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? On-chain data supports this interpretation. Two key indicators — Percent Unrealised Loss and the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio — point to mounting stress across the holder base, but without the hallmarks of full capitulation. Unrealised losses have risen sharply, tripling since January from roughly 7% to around 22% as prices declined from $95,000 to near $78,000. While this increase signals growing discomfort among investors, it remains well below the 40–60% levels historically associated with deep bear-market capitulation in 2019 and 2023. At the same time, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has dropped around 40% from its peaks, indicating compressed profitability and reduced willingness to sell at a loss, particularly among longer-term holders. Together, these signals suggest Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle stress phase: pressure is building, confidence is weakening, but widespread forced selling has not yet emerged. Profit Compression Without Capitulation Signals Adler also highlights the behavior of the Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR Ratio as a critical lens for understanding the current market phase. This metric compares the profitability of coins being spent by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), offering insight into who is absorbing losses and who is still distributing coins at a profit. High readings indicate that long-term holders are realizing profits far more efficiently than short-term participants, while lower values imply growing loss realization among newer entrants. Since peaking near 1.85 in October, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen to around 1.13, representing a decline of roughly 40%. This sharp compression reflects a clear deterioration in profitability across the market. However, the indicator remains above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, sustained moves below 1.0 have marked periods where short-term holders capitulate en masse, selling at significant losses. Deeper drops into the 0.6–0.8 range coincided with full capitulation and cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2023. At the current level, profit margins are tightening for both cohorts, but long-term holders are still, on average, exiting positions above cost. Adler notes that a decisive break below 1.0 would signal a transition into true capitulation, while a recovery toward 1.3–1.4 would indicate renewed confidence. Taken together with rising unrealised losses, the data points to a mid-cycle stress phase rather than a terminal bear-market bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off Bitcoin price action on the 12-hour chart reflects a market still under structural pressure. Despite a short-term stabilization attempt around the $78,000 zone. After an aggressive sell-off from the mid-$90,000s, BTC broke decisively below multiple key moving averages. This confirms a broader bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. The sharp downside impulse was accompanied by a notable spike in volume. Signaling forced selling and liquidation-driven flows rather than orderly profit-taking. Since tagging the local low near $78,000, the price has attempted a modest rebound. However, this bounce remains technically weak. Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term and medium-term moving averages. Which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Previous support in the $88,000–$90,000 region has clearly flipped into a supply zone. Capping upside attempts and reinforcing the idea of a range forming beneath a broken structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The current consolidation appears more consistent with a relief pause than a trend reversal. Momentum has slowed, but there is no evidence yet of sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand stepping in. As long as BTC remains below the descending moving averages, downside risks persist. The price is vulnerable to renewed tests of the recent lows. Reclaiming and holding above the $82,000–$85,000 area would be required to signal a meaningful shift in short-term structure. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price extended its decline below $75,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $72,850 but faces many hurdles near $76,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $74,000 and $75,000. The price is trading below $79,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $76,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $73,500. A low was formed at $72,865, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $75,000. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. However, the bears are active near $77,000 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $77,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $79,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000 and $80,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,000 level. The first major support is near the $74,000 level. The next support is now near the $72,850 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,000, followed by $74,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,750 and $77,200.

Bitcoin continues to trade below the $80,000 level as the market remains under sustained selling pressure and heightened uncertainty. Recent price action reflects a fragile environment in which downside moves are met with limited conviction from buyers, while broader risk sentiment across crypto stays defensive. As volatility persists, analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain indicators to assess whether the market is approaching exhaustion—or if further downside still lies ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? A new report from CryptoQuant highlights a notable deterioration in holder profitability through the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has fallen to its lowest levels of the past year. The SOPR measures whether coins being spent are moving at a profit or a loss, offering insight into the behavior of different investor cohorts during periods of stress. One key observation is the convergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). The SOPR ratio has dropped sharply toward the critical 1.0 level, indicating that long-term holders are realizing significantly less profit than before—or are choosing to stop selling altogether at current prices. This behavior suggests a growing reluctance to distribute coins into weakness, even as short-term participants continue to face losses. With Bitcoin still below key psychological levels, the evolution of SOPR will be closely watched. Whether this shift marks early stabilization or simply a pause before deeper capitulation remains an open question for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Selling Exhaustion, Not Capitulation The report adds that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors the deterioration seen in SOPR. The price (black line) has reached a local low near $77,900. Aligning with the sharp drop in the ratio toward its lowest levels of the past year. This synchronization suggests that realized selling pressure has intensified alongside the decline in profitability, reinforcing the view that the market has moved into a stress phase rather than a routine pullback. From a sentiment perspective, historically depressed SOPR readings have often coincided with moments when so-called “smart money” reduces selling activity. When coins are no longer being spent at a meaningful profit, long-term holders tend to step back, allowing selling pressure to subside. In past cycles, similar conditions have preceded periods of accumulation or the formation of local market floors. Although timing has varied widely. Two scenarios now stand out. If the SOPR stabilizes around the 1.0 level, it would suggest that heavy distribution from long-term investors is largely exhausted. Creating room for a relief bounce as marginal demand returns. Alternatively, the steep, momentum-driven drop in price increases the likelihood of extended sideways consolidation, as the market digests recent volatility before establishing a clearer trend. In summary, the data points to a flush market. With SOPR at yearly lows, weaker hands appear to have exited, shifting the balance toward longer-term value considerations over short-term fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Averages Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights a market under sustained pressure, despite a modest rebound off recent lows. Price is currently hovering around the $78,000 area after briefly dipping toward the mid-$70,000s, a zone that has acted as an important short-term demand pocket. This bounce, however, has so far lacked follow-through and does not yet signal a structural trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages. The price is trading well under the 100-day and 200-day averages, both of which are now sloping downward. This configuration reinforces the broader bearish bias and suggests that rallies are still being sold into rather than accumulated aggressively. The prior support region between $85,000 and $90,000 has clearly flipped into resistance. Confirming a change in market structure compared to late 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? The sell-off into the $74,000–$76,000 range was accompanied by elevated volume. The subsequent rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies short-covering or tactical buying rather than renewed conviction from longer-term investors. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase into a consolidation or corrective regime. As long as the price remains below reclaimed resistance and fails to regain key moving averages, downside risks remain active. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst and Elliott Wave expert Gert van Lagen has highlighted a critical level that could determine the next move in the Bitcoin price. In a recently shared 2-week chart, Lagen points to a broader market structure that suggests Bitcoin may be preparing for another strong upward leg, provided it continues to hold above $74,000. According to the analyst, this level now serves as a key support zone, marking the boundary between bull-market continuation and a potentially more concerning structural breakdown.  Why $74,000 Matters For Bitcoin Price Bull Structure In an X post, Lagen shared a detailed analysis of Bitcoin, predicting its next price move based on Elliott wave structures. His accompanying chart shows BTC completing an extended corrective phase following a multi-year rally. This correction, labeled Wave IV, has pulled the price back into a previous consolidation zone without disrupting the broader bullish structure. As long as Bitcoin remains above $74,400, the analyst views this move as a healthy reset rather than the beginning of an extended bear market. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Dogecoin, And XRP Price Are Crashing This Week Looking back at earlier phases of the cycle helps explain why the $74,400 support level is so critical. Lagen noted that during the build-up to Wave III, Bitcoin experienced a deep retracement that nearly revisited the low from the previous corrective wave before pushing higher. The cryptocurrency’s current price action appears to follow the same pattern, with the latest pullback approaching the bottom of Wave IV at mid-$70,000. This type of pattern repetition is common in Elliott Wave structures and often signals that the market may be preparing for a stronger upward move. In line with this, Lagen highlighted that BTC’s recent price movements match the characteristics of a Wave II correction within a broader Wave V advance. He said that $74,000 remains in the invalidation area. Holding above it keeps Bitcoin’s bullish outlook intact, while a decisive break below it would force a reassessment of BTC’s entire market structure. In any case, the analyst has stated he does not expect Bitcoin to break this support zone.  What The Chart Says About Bitcoin’s Next Move If the $74,400 support level continues to hold, the projected path on Lagen’s chart suggests the start of a new impulsive rally that would mark the early phase of Wave V. The initial move higher is expected to push the Bitcoin price back above previous highs, signaling that the corrective phase has ended and momentum has flipped back in favor of the bulls. According to the analyst, if Bitcoin continues to mirror past patterns, a bearish outcome remains less likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Still Rally Above $99,000 Despite Bearish Sentiment, Here’s Why Looking at his chart, Lagen has projected that Bitcoin could experience a bullish continuation toward the $260,000 to $320,000 region, which aligns with sub-wave 3, the strongest phase of a Wave V advance. Following this, the final extension of Wave V is expected to push Bitcoin toward $400,000, reflecting a final-cycle advance and representing a surge of more than 410% from current levels around $78,000. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals are flashing a powerful signal that hasn’t appeared since the last major bull run. Network Growth has surged to extreme levels, mirroring the same conditions seen in early 2021, just before BTC launched its historic rally toward new all-time highs. At the same time, liquidity is rapidly expanding across the market, suggesting fresh capital is flowing in. Rising Network Adoption Strengthens Long-Term Bull Thesis The last time Bitcoin’s network growth and liquidity reached comparable extreme levels was in 2021, just ahead of BTC’s final surge to a new all-time high. Swissblock revealed on X that these metrics are now showing signs of recovery, signaling that a final bullish phase may be forming.  Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now However, the current divergence and rising metrics alongside the declining price action suggest that investors are re-entering the market primarily to sell. The critical question is whether this renewed participation can persist long enough to allow the market to stabilize. If Network Growth and Liquidity continue to expand sustainably, they could provide the fundamental catalyst for one last upside push before the cycle concludes. FUD has intensified across social media following Bitcoin’s roughly 16% decline since January 28. Santiment has highlighted that after briefly dipping to around $74,600, BTC has rebounded toward $78,300, a move largely attributed to retail selling assets. This behavior is proof that markets move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s narrative. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with social data indicating this is the most bearish that retail has seen since the November 21st crash. Historically, periods of extreme negativity like this have been followed by a short-term relief rally, and early price action suggests this bounce is beginning to resemble the previous two post-FUD recoveries. How Next Cycle Leg Could Push Bitcoin To $104,000 Market expert and investor, The Milk Road, who previously nailed Bitcoin’s drop from its all-time highs, is now predicting a potential 40% gain starting immediately. According to Milk Road, BTC could still experience a correction ranging from -20% to -77% before the next major pivot, which is projected between November 19 and February 2. A shallow 20 to 34% drop seems unlikely. Locally, it should be more than that but smaller than 77%.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Performance Shows How Low The Price Will Go Before A Bottom Furthermore, BTC fell roughly -40% between its October 6, 2025, ATH and February 2, a move consistent with prior cycle behavior. Milk Road’s yearly cycle analysis signals a key pivot around February 2, after which BTC could stage a +40% rally, potentially reaching $104,000 between now and September. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off.  He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months.  He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build  Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume on Binance has taken one of its most negative values in recent years as the cryptocurrency’s price has plunged. Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume Has Fallen Deep Into Red Zone As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has seen a notable uptick in bearish sentiment on Binance. The “Net Taker Volume” here refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of taker buy or sell volume present in a given futures market. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the taker buy volume outweighs the taker sell volume on the platform. Such a trend implies a bullish sentiment is shared by the majority of the futures traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark suggests a bearish mentality is dominating the exchange as taker sell volume is outpacing the taker buy volume. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin Net Taker Volume for Binance over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume has witnessed a steep decline into the negative territory recently, suggesting a spike in bearish positioning. The red spike has arrived as the cryptocurrency has gone through a rapid drawdown that has taken its value below the $80,000 level. “This is the 3rd largest sell-off by Sell Taker Volume Dominance in the last 2 years,” noted the analyst. The two spikes in this window that were larger in magnitude came in October as the asset’s price crashed following its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000. In the past, Bitcoin has often tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. As such, it only remains to be seen how the coin will develop in the near future, given this dominance of short sentiment. “At some point, the best risk-reward flips long,” said Maartunn. “We’re getting close.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? In related news, the digital asset derivatives sector has gone through some chaos as BTC and other assets have observed volatility. According to data from CoinGlass, derivatives platforms handled over $783 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. Out of these $484 million of the contracts involved were long positions. $300 million of the liquidations still involved bearish bets as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen some rebound in this window. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly dipped all the way under $75,000 on Sunday, but the asset has since bounced a bit as it’s now trading around $78,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold $2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price extended its decline below $78,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $74,500 but faces many hurdles near $80,000. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $77,000 and $78,000. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $77,000 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $82,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $80,000 and $79,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $78,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $76,000. A low was formed at $74,543, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $78,000. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $80,000 level. A close above the $80,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000 and $85,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level. The next support is now near the $76,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,000, followed by $76,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $80,000.

As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday.  The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated.  They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum.  While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart.  If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully.  A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range.  Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact.  If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Since the recent Bitcoin price crash to $76,000, the broader crypto market has been on high alert, with sentiment shifting to extreme fear levels. A crypto analyst who has shared insights on Bitcoin’s latest market movements predicts more pain for the leading cryptocurrency. He has also warned investors against taking advantage of the decline and buying BTC during this highly volatile and unpredictable period.  Analyst Warns Not To Go Long After Bitcoin Price Crash Crypto analyst Tyrex has warned investors against going long on Bitcoin following the recent price crash. Over the weekend, BTC experienced another devastating decline, dropping by more than 14% according to CoinMarketCap. For some investors, this drop may appear as an opportunity to buy the dip and go long on the leading cryptocurrency. However, Tyrex advises against making such a move. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? The analyst stated in an X post on February 1, 2026, that Bitcoin had crashed to a new low around $76,000 on January 31, confirming a bearish breakout. He noted that, based on past market movements in which similar setups occurred, excluding fakeouts, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to stage a full recovery back to $85,000. Instead, he said the price is more likely to keep dumping until it completes its downside move and reaches a price discovery at lower levels.  Tyrex cited Bitcoin’s price action in May 2021, May 2022, and June 22, noting that massive price crashes occurred during these periods after similar breaks in market structure. He said Bitcoin failed to recover quickly in each case and actually continued to crash on the daily chart after the main red candle was printed.    The analyst’s accompanying Bitcoin chart shows the cryptocurrency trading above $79,000 at the time of his analysis, after it initiated a slight recovery from its previous low near $76,000. He projected on the chart that Bitcoin could soon resume its decline and fall toward the $75,400 region, representing a more than 4.5% decline.  Tyrex added that a major support level sits around the $74,000 level on the weekly chart, which could temporarily hold off further downside. According to Tyrex, this level is equivalent to a key support near $2,100 for Ethereum.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Chainlink Price Could Crash 50% If This Level Fails Analyst Shares Highly Likely BTC Decline In his analysis, Tyrex stated that, given Bitcoin’s latest price crash, structural weakness, and past cycle trends, he expects the cryptocurrency to retest recent lows once again. Considering his view that a recovery is unlikely, the analyst suggests that the near-term outlook for BTC is predominantly bearish.  He noted that the $74,000 support is the main area for potential long positions. However, he expressed caution, noting that this level may not be particularly strong since it is relatively distant on the weekly chart and could be broken if Bitcoin continues its downward trend.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a major decline below $80,000. BTC is down over 10% and might soon test the $70,000 support zone. Bitcoin failed to remain above $82,500 and started another decline. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $79,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip further if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $85,000 zone. BTC started a major decline below the $83,200 and $82,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $80,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $78,000. A low was formed at $75,665, and the price is still signaling more downsides. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $79,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $78,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,200 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $75,665 low. A close above the $79,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $75,665 low. The next barrier for the bulls could be $84,000 and $84,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,200 level. The first major support is near the $75,500 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $82,000.

The Bitcoin market experienced a shockingly dramatic weekend, as opposed to the typical silent price action displayed in previous weekends. On Saturday, January 31st, the world’s leading cryptocurrency seemingly led other crypto assets south of the charts, with its price falling from $84,350 to as low as $75,000 in a single swoop.  As this unfolded, an inversely correlated shift also played out underneath the charts. A recent on-chain evaluation has pointed out that Bitcoin’s Long-term Holder behavior is changing, contrary to what its short-term holders are doing. Long-Term Holders Accumulate As Short-Term Supply Declines Pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost recently took to CryptoQuant, via a Quicktake post, pointing out that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are racking up more BTC. The relevant indicator here is the LTH supply change (Coinbase fix). Related Reading: Rising Above The Ashes: XRP ETFs Set New Record Despite Market Crash For context, this metric tracks the net change in the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (typically coins unmoved for ~155 days). According to the analyst, approximately 186,000 (on a monthly average) have been added to the Long-term holders’ supply. Seeing as more coins are aging past 155 days, Darkfost implied that short-term holder supply is, in turn, witnessing steady contraction. Notably, the analyst pointed out this kind of transition (between long-term and short-term investors) last happened in April, as the Bitcoin price retraced.  As it is intuitively evident, a rising LTH supply is typically interpreted as growing conviction among Bitcoin’s long-term investors. By extension, this means that long-term holders are distributing less of their holdings and stowing away more.  In theory, this behavior is bullish news for the cryptocurrency. This is because, as LTHs absorb supply, the amount of available Bitcoin for sale reduces. Historically, it is also a bullish signal for the BTC price, as it has often appeared during the early stages of accumulation periods or late into correction stages. However, the broader market implications in the current context might not be so favorable. Darkfost highlighted that there is very weak demand available to cushion the falling BTC price.  At the same time, the Bitcoin market appears to be entering a bearish phase; hence, it is not far-fetched to see major capitulation events in the near-term. If this happens, the Bitcoin price would likely plummet, as weaker investors may sell off their holdings in fear or as victims of liquidation events. For a bullish outlook to be truly relevant, there has to be a clear recovery in demand, alongside continued long-term holder accumulation.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance  As of press time, the Bitcoin price stands at approximately $78,060, reflecting a 6.9% loss in the past day. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

In the past few hours, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000 amid another wave of liquidations as January comes to a rather volatile close. Analysts at Kobeissi note there have been three notable liquidation events in the past 12 hours, resulting in a combined loss of $1.3 billion. Such developments, coupled with a very fearful market after last week’s price slump, have pushed Bitcoin below a key price level. According to the renowned market expert Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s behavior towards this $80,000 price zone holds significant consequences for the market trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio Spikes To New High — Fresh Volatility Ahead? Bitcoin Slips Under ETF Realized Price As Downside Risk Grows In a recent X post, Burak Kesmeci outlines the technical and on-chain importance of the $80,000 price level to the Bitcoin market. Before Bitcoin’s recent breakdown below $80,000, the asset had twice retested this zone following the correction phase that began in early October 2025. Each successful rebound from these retests reinforced $80,000 as a critical support level, with certain chart formations even hinting at potential trend reversal. This underscored the market’s technical sensitivity to this level before the recent loss. However, Kesmeci highlights an on-chain importance of the $80,000 price point in that it also functions as the cost basis of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Therefore, the recent price fall below $80,000 places a large cohort of institutional investors at risk of entering unrealized losses. In January 2026 alone, the Bitcoin ETFs already witnessed massive levels of withdrawals, resulting in a total net outflow of $1.61 billion. However, these figures are likely to surge higher as sustained price decline below the ETF cost basis is expected to trigger a wide-scale, panic-driven redemption among investors.  In addition to its on-chain and technical importance, Kesmeci also notes that $80,000 presently functions as the True Market Mean. Related Reading: TD Sequential Flashes Buy Signal For XRP On Key Price Condition – Analyst What Next For Bitcoin?  According to Burak Kesmeci, a bearish scenario would require a weekly close below the $80,000 support level. If confirmed, the analyst warns that bearish momentum could intensify, potentially driving Bitcoin lower toward $72,000, $68,000, and eventually $62,000 in sequence. This is because these levels align with notable volume profile clusters, representing potential areas where liquidity could accumulate, and the price may temporarily stabilize. Conversely, in a bullish scenario, Kesmeci notes that a sustained rebound from current levels could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls. The first major upside hurdle lies at $90,000, followed by the 111-period Simple Moving Average (SMA111) near $95,000, which is described as a critical level for confirming a medium-term trend reversal. A decisive break above the psychological $100,000 resistance would further strengthen the bullish case and signal a potential resumption of the broader uptrend. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,832, reflecting a 7.1% loss in the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview