Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals are flashing a powerful signal that hasn’t appeared since the last major bull run. Network Growth has surged to extreme levels, mirroring the same conditions seen in early 2021, just before BTC launched its historic rally toward new all-time highs. At the same time, liquidity is rapidly expanding across the market, suggesting fresh capital is flowing in. Rising Network Adoption Strengthens Long-Term Bull Thesis The last time Bitcoin’s network growth and liquidity reached comparable extreme levels was in 2021, just ahead of BTC’s final surge to a new all-time high. Swissblock revealed on X that these metrics are now showing signs of recovery, signaling that a final bullish phase may be forming. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now However, the current divergence and rising metrics alongside the declining price action suggest that investors are re-entering the market primarily to sell. The critical question is whether this renewed participation can persist long enough to allow the market to stabilize. If Network Growth and Liquidity continue to expand sustainably, they could provide the fundamental catalyst for one last upside push before the cycle concludes. FUD has intensified across social media following Bitcoin’s roughly 16% decline since January 28. Santiment has highlighted that after briefly dipping to around $74,600, BTC has rebounded toward $78,300, a move largely attributed to retail selling assets. This behavior is proof that markets move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s narrative. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with social data indicating this is the most bearish that retail has seen since the November 21st crash. Historically, periods of extreme negativity like this have been followed by a short-term relief rally, and early price action suggests this bounce is beginning to resemble the previous two post-FUD recoveries. How Next Cycle Leg Could Push Bitcoin To $104,000 Market expert and investor, The Milk Road, who previously nailed Bitcoin’s drop from its all-time highs, is now predicting a potential 40% gain starting immediately. According to Milk Road, BTC could still experience a correction ranging from -20% to -77% before the next major pivot, which is projected between November 19 and February 2. A shallow 20 to 34% drop seems unlikely. Locally, it should be more than that but smaller than 77%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Performance Shows How Low The Price Will Go Before A Bottom Furthermore, BTC fell roughly -40% between its October 6, 2025, ATH and February 2, a move consistent with prior cycle behavior. Milk Road’s yearly cycle analysis signals a key pivot around February 2, after which BTC could stage a +40% rally, potentially reaching $104,000 between now and September. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off. He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months. He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume on Binance has taken one of its most negative values in recent years as the cryptocurrency’s price has plunged. Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume Has Fallen Deep Into Red Zone As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has seen a notable uptick in bearish sentiment on Binance. The “Net Taker Volume” here refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of taker buy or sell volume present in a given futures market. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the taker buy volume outweighs the taker sell volume on the platform. Such a trend implies a bullish sentiment is shared by the majority of the futures traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark suggests a bearish mentality is dominating the exchange as taker sell volume is outpacing the taker buy volume. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin Net Taker Volume for Binance over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume has witnessed a steep decline into the negative territory recently, suggesting a spike in bearish positioning. The red spike has arrived as the cryptocurrency has gone through a rapid drawdown that has taken its value below the $80,000 level. “This is the 3rd largest sell-off by Sell Taker Volume Dominance in the last 2 years,” noted the analyst. The two spikes in this window that were larger in magnitude came in October as the asset’s price crashed following its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000. In the past, Bitcoin has often tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. As such, it only remains to be seen how the coin will develop in the near future, given this dominance of short sentiment. “At some point, the best risk-reward flips long,” said Maartunn. “We’re getting close.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? In related news, the digital asset derivatives sector has gone through some chaos as BTC and other assets have observed volatility. According to data from CoinGlass, derivatives platforms handled over $783 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. Out of these $484 million of the contracts involved were long positions. $300 million of the liquidations still involved bearish bets as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen some rebound in this window. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly dipped all the way under $75,000 on Sunday, but the asset has since bounced a bit as it’s now trading around $78,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold $2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its decline below $78,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $74,500 but faces many hurdles near $80,000. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $77,000 and $78,000. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $77,000 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $82,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $80,000 and $79,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $78,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $76,000. A low was formed at $74,543, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $78,000. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $80,000 level. A close above the $80,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000 and $85,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level. The next support is now near the $76,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,000, followed by $76,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $80,000.
As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday. The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated. They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum. While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart. If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully. A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact. If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Since the recent Bitcoin price crash to $76,000, the broader crypto market has been on high alert, with sentiment shifting to extreme fear levels. A crypto analyst who has shared insights on Bitcoin’s latest market movements predicts more pain for the leading cryptocurrency. He has also warned investors against taking advantage of the decline and buying BTC during this highly volatile and unpredictable period. Analyst Warns Not To Go Long After Bitcoin Price Crash Crypto analyst Tyrex has warned investors against going long on Bitcoin following the recent price crash. Over the weekend, BTC experienced another devastating decline, dropping by more than 14% according to CoinMarketCap. For some investors, this drop may appear as an opportunity to buy the dip and go long on the leading cryptocurrency. However, Tyrex advises against making such a move. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? The analyst stated in an X post on February 1, 2026, that Bitcoin had crashed to a new low around $76,000 on January 31, confirming a bearish breakout. He noted that, based on past market movements in which similar setups occurred, excluding fakeouts, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to stage a full recovery back to $85,000. Instead, he said the price is more likely to keep dumping until it completes its downside move and reaches a price discovery at lower levels. Tyrex cited Bitcoin’s price action in May 2021, May 2022, and June 22, noting that massive price crashes occurred during these periods after similar breaks in market structure. He said Bitcoin failed to recover quickly in each case and actually continued to crash on the daily chart after the main red candle was printed. The analyst’s accompanying Bitcoin chart shows the cryptocurrency trading above $79,000 at the time of his analysis, after it initiated a slight recovery from its previous low near $76,000. He projected on the chart that Bitcoin could soon resume its decline and fall toward the $75,400 region, representing a more than 4.5% decline. Tyrex added that a major support level sits around the $74,000 level on the weekly chart, which could temporarily hold off further downside. According to Tyrex, this level is equivalent to a key support near $2,100 for Ethereum. Related Reading: Analyst Says Chainlink Price Could Crash 50% If This Level Fails Analyst Shares Highly Likely BTC Decline In his analysis, Tyrex stated that, given Bitcoin’s latest price crash, structural weakness, and past cycle trends, he expects the cryptocurrency to retest recent lows once again. Considering his view that a recovery is unlikely, the analyst suggests that the near-term outlook for BTC is predominantly bearish. He noted that the $74,000 support is the main area for potential long positions. However, he expressed caution, noting that this level may not be particularly strong since it is relatively distant on the weekly chart and could be broken if Bitcoin continues its downward trend. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price started a major decline below $80,000. BTC is down over 10% and might soon test the $70,000 support zone. Bitcoin failed to remain above $82,500 and started another decline. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $79,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip further if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $85,000 zone. BTC started a major decline below the $83,200 and $82,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $80,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $78,000. A low was formed at $75,665, and the price is still signaling more downsides. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $79,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $78,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,200 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $75,665 low. A close above the $79,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $75,665 low. The next barrier for the bulls could be $84,000 and $84,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,200 level. The first major support is near the $75,500 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $82,000.
The Bitcoin market experienced a shockingly dramatic weekend, as opposed to the typical silent price action displayed in previous weekends. On Saturday, January 31st, the world’s leading cryptocurrency seemingly led other crypto assets south of the charts, with its price falling from $84,350 to as low as $75,000 in a single swoop. As this unfolded, an inversely correlated shift also played out underneath the charts. A recent on-chain evaluation has pointed out that Bitcoin’s Long-term Holder behavior is changing, contrary to what its short-term holders are doing. Long-Term Holders Accumulate As Short-Term Supply Declines Pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost recently took to CryptoQuant, via a Quicktake post, pointing out that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are racking up more BTC. The relevant indicator here is the LTH supply change (Coinbase fix). Related Reading: Rising Above The Ashes: XRP ETFs Set New Record Despite Market Crash For context, this metric tracks the net change in the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (typically coins unmoved for ~155 days). According to the analyst, approximately 186,000 (on a monthly average) have been added to the Long-term holders’ supply. Seeing as more coins are aging past 155 days, Darkfost implied that short-term holder supply is, in turn, witnessing steady contraction. Notably, the analyst pointed out this kind of transition (between long-term and short-term investors) last happened in April, as the Bitcoin price retraced. As it is intuitively evident, a rising LTH supply is typically interpreted as growing conviction among Bitcoin’s long-term investors. By extension, this means that long-term holders are distributing less of their holdings and stowing away more. In theory, this behavior is bullish news for the cryptocurrency. This is because, as LTHs absorb supply, the amount of available Bitcoin for sale reduces. Historically, it is also a bullish signal for the BTC price, as it has often appeared during the early stages of accumulation periods or late into correction stages. However, the broader market implications in the current context might not be so favorable. Darkfost highlighted that there is very weak demand available to cushion the falling BTC price. At the same time, the Bitcoin market appears to be entering a bearish phase; hence, it is not far-fetched to see major capitulation events in the near-term. If this happens, the Bitcoin price would likely plummet, as weaker investors may sell off their holdings in fear or as victims of liquidation events. For a bullish outlook to be truly relevant, there has to be a clear recovery in demand, alongside continued long-term holder accumulation. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of press time, the Bitcoin price stands at approximately $78,060, reflecting a 6.9% loss in the past day. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
In the past few hours, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000 amid another wave of liquidations as January comes to a rather volatile close. Analysts at Kobeissi note there have been three notable liquidation events in the past 12 hours, resulting in a combined loss of $1.3 billion. Such developments, coupled with a very fearful market after last week’s price slump, have pushed Bitcoin below a key price level. According to the renowned market expert Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s behavior towards this $80,000 price zone holds significant consequences for the market trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio Spikes To New High — Fresh Volatility Ahead? Bitcoin Slips Under ETF Realized Price As Downside Risk Grows In a recent X post, Burak Kesmeci outlines the technical and on-chain importance of the $80,000 price level to the Bitcoin market. Before Bitcoin’s recent breakdown below $80,000, the asset had twice retested this zone following the correction phase that began in early October 2025. Each successful rebound from these retests reinforced $80,000 as a critical support level, with certain chart formations even hinting at potential trend reversal. This underscored the market’s technical sensitivity to this level before the recent loss. However, Kesmeci highlights an on-chain importance of the $80,000 price point in that it also functions as the cost basis of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Therefore, the recent price fall below $80,000 places a large cohort of institutional investors at risk of entering unrealized losses. In January 2026 alone, the Bitcoin ETFs already witnessed massive levels of withdrawals, resulting in a total net outflow of $1.61 billion. However, these figures are likely to surge higher as sustained price decline below the ETF cost basis is expected to trigger a wide-scale, panic-driven redemption among investors. In addition to its on-chain and technical importance, Kesmeci also notes that $80,000 presently functions as the True Market Mean. Related Reading: TD Sequential Flashes Buy Signal For XRP On Key Price Condition – Analyst What Next For Bitcoin? According to Burak Kesmeci, a bearish scenario would require a weekly close below the $80,000 support level. If confirmed, the analyst warns that bearish momentum could intensify, potentially driving Bitcoin lower toward $72,000, $68,000, and eventually $62,000 in sequence. This is because these levels align with notable volume profile clusters, representing potential areas where liquidity could accumulate, and the price may temporarily stabilize. Conversely, in a bullish scenario, Kesmeci notes that a sustained rebound from current levels could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls. The first major upside hurdle lies at $90,000, followed by the 111-period Simple Moving Average (SMA111) near $95,000, which is described as a critical level for confirming a medium-term trend reversal. A decisive break above the psychological $100,000 resistance would further strengthen the bullish case and signal a potential resumption of the broader uptrend. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,832, reflecting a 7.1% loss in the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin bearish sentiments continue to dominate the market, after prices fell below the key $80,000 on January 31, resulting in a new wave of market liquidations. Interestingly, a pseudonymous analyst with the username CryptoMe has identified an “air pocket” in the present price structure, which potentially points to the downside target of this recent price drop. Related Reading: Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR Shows Market At Pivotal Junction — What’s Next? Bitcoin Now Below $80K Support Zone – What Next? In a QuickTake post on January 31, CryptoMe draws attention to an existing price vacuum between $73,000 – $80,000 as confirmed by three different market metrics. This observation is important in anticipating Bitcoin downside targets, considering the presently heightened market fears following the latest price decline. According to CryptoMe, liquidity levels on the Binance spot order book showed a concentration of limit buy orders between $73,000 – $80,000 that formed between late October and early November. Despite the price surge from $80,000 to around $100,000 seen in late Q4 2025, the liquidity cluster price zone remained untouched. Therefore, the zone is likely to act as a short-term price magnet should bearish momentum persist, as markets often gravitate toward areas of unfilled liquidity during periods of heightened volatility. Another on-chain metric that supports the existence of an air pocket between $73,000 – $80,000 is the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) price histogram. Each Bitcoin transaction consumes existing UTXOs and creates new ones; therefore, UTXOs are a good measure of on-chain transaction activity. As seen in the chart above, the sparse UTXO density between $73,000 and $80,000 suggests that a small number of transactions occurred within this price range. Thus, investors failed to establish a cost basis that would prevent further price decline, as prices have now slipped below $80,000. The final metric highlighted by CryptoMe is the Spot ETF Investor Average Cost, which currently stands at $79,000. Following the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has failed to trade below its realized price until now. Considering all three metrics, it’s likely that Bitcoin is headed for the $73,000 price mark, which the market has not visited since April 2025. Moreover, such a decline would represent a 40% devaluation from the present market all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Performance Shows How Low The Price Will Go Before A Bottom Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $78,558, reflecting a 6.5% increase in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, total trading volume is up by 37.15% and valued at $74.67 billion. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has once again fallen below a critical support zone, raising questions about whether the market is gearing up for a deeper sell-off. With selling pressure still intact, traders are now watching key levels closely to see if a final flush toward lower support is imminent. Price Faces Another Rejection MakroVision Research shared on X that Bitcoin has once again met strong rejection, resulting in a decisive break below several key support levels. Price has now slipped back into the range of the previous low and continues to trade beneath the critical green resistance zone between $85,200 and $86,200, highlighting that bearish pressure remains in control for now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns On the very short-term timeframe, there are early signs of an attempted rebound, but without a timely and sustainable reclaim of the $85,200–$86,200 zone, this move is best viewed as a technical counter-bounce rather than the start of a meaningful trend reversal. As long as the price remains capped below this area, the broader short-term downtrend remains intact. From a tactical perspective, the $85,200–$86,200 region has become the key battlefield. A clean reclaim and hold above this zone would be the first clear indication that selling pressure is beginning to fade, potentially allowing for price stabilization and a relief rally. If this reclaim attempt fails, the risk of continued downside acceleration increases. In that case, focus would turn to the $72,300–$75,300 range, a technically prominent support zone with historical significance. This zone may ultimately serve as a potential support and reversal region should the market experience another phase of capitulation. CME Gap Opens: What To Expect From Bitcoin This Weekend Crypto analyst MartyParty, in a recent Bitcoin Wyckoff Accumulation update, highlighted that a CME gap is opening, which is expected to be filled by Sunday evening. This sets the stage for potential short-term volatility, with traders closely watching key technical levels and liquidation activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Backs Off Resistance — Breakdown Or Brief Pause? Several scenarios are possible over the coming days. One possibility is the continued liquidation of remaining leveraged longs, with the lowest 25x Binance liquidation currently around $79,350, potentially completing the classic Wyckoff Spring pattern. Another scenario is a retest of secondary support at $81,800, which could act as a temporary floor for Bitcoin’s price action. If support at $81,800 holds, Bitcoin may trade sideways or attempt to push toward the primary support level, which has now turned into resistance at $84,800. The most probable scenario suggests a move up through $84,500 toward $86,463, followed by a retest of $84,500 on Sunday night as the CME gap is filled, completing the near-term Wyckoff accumulation setup. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Over the past week, the Bitcoin market experienced new waves of liquidations with prices dropping to around $81,000 on Thursday. Though the premier cryptocurrency has seen a slight rebound since then, bearish sentiments remain dominant with analysts expecting a potential decline to as low as $56,000. Amid this recent correction, a developing on-chain situation has reached a boiling point, putting the Bitcoin market at a critical juncture. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Slide To $82K Sets Off A $1.7 Billion Chain Reaction Bitcoin aSOPR Holds Clue To Next Market Phase – Analyst The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an on-chain metric used to measure whether Bitcoin investors are, on average, selling their coins at a profit or at a loss, while filtering out noise from short-term, low-value movements. In usual market trends, each new price peak is accompanied by higher conviction as investors are willing to hold longer, take profits later, and tolerate larger drawdowns because they expect even higher prices. However, during Bitcoin’s ascent from around $40,000 in early 2024 to over $100,000, the aSOPR has shown a different pattern as observed by market analyst MorenoDV. Despite a consistent uptrend resulting in multiple price peaks, Bitcoin aSOPR established a downtrend pattern marked by lower highs and lower lows, thereby creating a puzzling market divergence. According to MorenoDV, this development suggests that Bitcoin traders were aggressively taking profits with each rally, indicating a lack of long-term market confidence. Considering the descending profit-taking pattern, it can also be inferred that investors were satisfied with smaller and smaller gains, suggesting they were no longer convinced that upside continuation was likely. Related Reading: Bitmine Stakes Additional 250,912 Ethereum Worth $745M – 61% Is Now Staked The Present Market Debacle Despite the ongoing divergence, it is still observed that aSOPR respects the general market trend with each high in its descending channel aligning with a local price top, while each retest of the lower boundary coincides with a market bottom. Presently, the aSOPR is retesting this lower boundary, in a fear-ridden market with over 30% of market supply in a loss. Ideally, MorenoDV explains these are accumulation opportunities, especially in further consideration of the negative aSOPR. However, the analyst warns that a decisive fall below this line could strengthen present bearish sentiments, resulting in an intense market capitulation, as an already fearful set of investors would likely initiate a sell-off. At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade around $83,819, reflecting 0.41% decline in the past day. Following the recent liquidations, the market leader is now 34% away from its all time high of around $126,100. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
Crypto analyst Maelius has alluded to Bitcoin’s historical performance to provide insights into how low the flagship crypto could drop before it reaches a bottom. He also alluded to the BTC.d, which he explained shows that BTC has yet to reach a bottom. How Low Can Bitcoin Drop Before Finding A Bottom In an X post, Maelius shared a chart indicating that Bitcoin could still drop below $60,000 before it finds a bottom. The analyst also highlighted the BTC dominance (BTC.d), which he noted usually crashes after the flagship crypto has topped, but that has not yet happened. He alluded to the 2017 and 2021 cycles, noting that they saw massive sell-offs and a bottom in BTC.d shortly after Bitcoin topped. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Says The Bitcoin Cycle Is Already Over, Here’s Why Based on his comments, Maelius also raised the possibility that Bitcoin may not have topped, which is why the BTC.d isn’t crashing yet. He remarked that fractal analysts say BTC has topped, but questioned why BTC.d hasn’t had a proper sell-off yet and is only just positioned to have one relatively soon. The analyst stated that one could argue Bitcoin hasn’t topped yet and that it’s still possible the flagship crypto could run toward previous highs, even as BTC.d still has to crash. He added that BTC.d had never been this high or looked this bearish when BTC was already in a bear market. In an earlier X post, the analyst stated that BTC was trying to confuse both sides. However, he remarked that higher prices are inevitable and will come soon enough, as the structure remains bullish, and that, until proven otherwise, bears cannot do anything about it. Until then, he urged market participants not to give up on their holdings by selling them at a discount. Analyst Reiterates That BTC Has Topped Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has reiterated that Bitcoin has topped, noting that VTC has always topped in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. He suggested that the focus now should be on getting through this bear market, which he believes will last until the end of this year. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals How Far Bitcoin Price Will Crash If The Uptrend Doesn’t Continue He then alluded to a previous outline he had made on how things could play out for Bitcoin up until 2042. Cowen believes accumulation will occur between 2027 and 2028, which will then usher in the uptrend between 2029 and 2030. He predicted that BTC could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2032, before another bear market between 2033 and 2034. The analyst predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million between 2040 and 2042 after the next bear market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,900, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
After surging toward the $100,000 mark a few days into the new year, the price of Bitcoin looks set to end January in stark contrast to how it started the month. On Thursday, January 29, the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a multi-month low of around $81,500, with the general market sentiment worsening over the past few weeks. Going into the weekend, the price of Bitcoin has somewhat cooled off, recovering above the $93,000 level on Friday, January 30. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader is only on the verge of another violent price movement. BTC Setting Up For A Violent Liquidation Cascade In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain shared insights into the current on-chain condition of the Bitcoin price. According to the market quant, the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) witnessed a notable upswing on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, while price was undergoing its most recent correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Needs Deeper Liquidity Before A Real Recovery Takes Shape: Analysts For context, the Estimated Leverage Ratio is an on-chain metric that tracks the ratio between open interest and the reserve of an exchange (Binance, in this case). This metric measures the average amount of leverage used by the traders in a particular market or exchange. A higher ELR signals a higher market risk, suggesting that small price movements could lead to significant liquidations. According to data from CryptoQuant, CryptoOnchain highlighted that the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio recently spiked to a critical level of 0.188 when the price fell to around $81,500, indicating that the Open Interest is exceptionally high relative to the exchange’s reserves. Furthermore, CryptoOnchain shared that the divergence between rising leverage and falling prices is a classic “bearish divergence” signal in the derivative market. “It indicates that despite the price weakness, traders are aggressively increasing their leverage positions,” the on-chain expert added. What’s more, CryptoOnchain revealed that when the market becomes heavily over-leveraged during a price correction, it implies that the traders are either “buying the dip” with high leverage or increasingly taking short positions. The market quant said this setup usually precedes a “violent liquidation cascade.” Overall, CryptoOnchain concluded that the market is currently in a high-tension zone, with the combination of peak leverage and low prices suggesting that a “squeeze” is imminent. The analyst, however, clarified that the direction of the next violent movement depends on the dominant side (bulls or bears) of the market. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $84,200, reflecting a nearly 1% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Still Trading Sideways Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
After bouncing 2.6% from recent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has been attempting to turn the $82,000-$83,000 area into support. Some analysts have warned that the cryptocurrency must hold the crucial macro support levels or it will “confirm bearish acceleration.” Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Below $2,800 As Crypto Liquidations Near $1B – Should Investors Worry? Bitcoin To Drop 76% From its Peak On Thursday, Bitcoin crashed alongside the rest of the market, retracing nearly 9% in a day toward the $81,314 area. BTC had been trading between $86,000-$93,500 since early November, closing above the lower boundary of its two-month range in the weekly timeframe despite constant volatility. At the moment, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost this key support in the daily timeframe and risks a deeper correction if the price doesn’t recover the $86,000 level before the end of the week. As the price hovers between levels not seen since the late November correction, a market observer has warned that the leading cryptocurrency has lost its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support. Ted Pillows asserted that the last two times Bitcoin had a weekly close below the 100-week EMA, back in 2018 and 2022, it dropped 50% in just 4-6 weeks. Moreover, he highlighted BTC’s historical pattern, noting that the cryptocurrency has repeated a similar performance between the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles. The chart shows an eight-year ascending trendline that has marked the top of the previous cycles. The trendline began during the late 2017 peak and continued into the next bull market, marking the 2021 cycle top too. Notably, the 2018 bear market correction saw Bitcoin retrace 83.11% from the ascending trendline, while the 2022 pullback had BTC dropping 77.57% from the cycle top. Per the chart, this has formed a rising support line that has marked where BTC’s price bottomed during previous bear markets. Now, Bitcoin has seemingly topped around the trendline once again and could retrace up to 76.88% toward the $30,000 mark in 2026, if history repeats. BTC Retests Macro Triangle Bottom Analyst Rekt Capital also shared his perspective on BTC’s recent pullback now that it has broken down from its weekly price range and is revisiting the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, similar to its 2021 triangle formation that preceded the previous bear market. Per the analysis, the flagship crypto has shown a nearly identical price action to its 2021-2022 performance, with the price respecting the macro support and descending resistance. A breakdown from the macro triangle bottom “would confirm Bearish Acceleration,” he noted, adding that for bull market continuation, the cryptocurrency would need to break and hold above the macro descending resistance on longer timeframes. “Until then, we have more evidence that maybe we will be following 2021 [performance]. (…) It’s just a little bit more compressed.” He also pointed out that BTC is displaying a similar Bull Market EMAs crossover that occurred during the early stages of the previous bear market. Related Reading: Analysts Say Dogecoin Consolidation Is About To End – Parabolic Run Or Crash Ahead? Rekt Capital highlighted that the imminent crossover does not necessarily predict additional downside, but “is effectively confirming weakness, kind of responding to the weakness that we are already seeing and have seen for a while.” “History is suggesting to us that if we continue to make these macro lower highs, which are a result of weakening demand at historical support regions, then there’s more reason to be bearish rather than bullish,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Gold and silver have recently dominated headlines, outperforming both Bitcoin and altcoins in the broader crypto market. While both precious metals recorded new all-time highs in 2026, many altcoins failed to reach similar milestones. Bitcoin, by contrast, did achieve an ATH in 2025; however, following that peak, its price retraced sharply to new lows. With this in mind, analysts argue that the strength of gold and silver does not pose a threat to digital assets. Instead, they interpret the divergence as a major bullish signal for Bitcoin and altcoins. Gold And Silver ATH Signals Bitcoin And Altcoins Upside Crypto market expert Mark Chadwick delivered a detailed analysis of precious metals and cryptocurrencies on X this week, pointing to what he calls “the biggest price divergence” ever recorded between gold and Bitcoin. His chart and analysis suggest that a strong performance in gold could be a major indicator for a potential rally in cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Continue To Decline If This Doesn’t Happen; Analyst Chadwick noted that gold has surged aggressively, reaching an ATH of over $5,600 in January 2026. This price rally has pushed the metal into extreme overbought levels on higher timeframes. In contrast, Bitcoin is facing prolonged weakness and negative sentiment in 2026, despite reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. The analyst suggested that this performance imbalance has reached levels that typically signal a major market shift. Gold and silver have been boosted by factors such as central bank accumulation, inflation hedging, and geopolitical pressures. At the same time, Bitcoin has been weighed down by tighter liquidity, reduced investor interest, and risk-off conditions. As a result, traditional safe-haven assets have entered overbought territory, leaving BTC and altcoins largely overlooked. Chadwick argues that markets move in cycles driven by sentiment and positioning. When one asset becomes excessively overbought, returns diminish, and capital seeks higher upside elsewhere. In past macro cycles, periods of strong performance in gold and silver have often been followed by capital rotating into higher-risk assets once fear subsides. Based on his analysis, Bitcoin’s current positioning reflects exhaustion rather than structural weakness. Chadwick believes that when manipulation ends and capital starts flowing out of gold and silver into BTC, it could set the stage for a sharp rebound in the leading cryptocurrency. Since altcoins typically follow Bitcoin’s performance, the analyst expects that once Bitcoin regains momentum, some of that profit could also rotate into select altcoins, fueling a price rally. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? How High Bitcoin And Altcoins Could Rally Chadwick has stated that Bitcoin’s price could easily surge 10x as capital flows back into it and market sentiment and liquidity improve. However, the chart outlines a short-term rally, projecting a 91.60% rise to $170,000 from the $82,000 region. The analyst also predicted that altcoins could rise 50-100x, reflecting a staggering potential for gains in the crypto market. He concluded his analysis by emphasizing that smart money knows massive returns often come from diversification. From this perspective, the current ATHs of gold and silver do not undermine cryptocurrencies but signal an upcoming shift in capital. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin was designed to function as digital gold, a decentralised store of value that protects wealth from inflation, currency debasement, and the long-term dominance of the dollar. Currently, the market behaviour is telling a different story as de-dollarisation accelerates and investors seek safety from geopolitical risk and inflation pressures, with gold capturing the bulk of that capital. Is Bitcoin Still A Store Of Value Or A Risk Asset? Crypto investor Himanshu Sinha has stated on X that Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold because it was built for de-dollarisation, but gold and silver are winning the trade and fulfilling that role. Over the past year, gold has risen by roughly 55%, silver has surged around 150%, while BTC has remained flat. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down The Central banks are the drivers; they don’t want volatility that they can’t manage, and they don’t want an asset that moves in lockstep with the Nasdaq. Instead, they want a controllable monetary infrastructure, and they’re buying gold at the highest rate in history. Just hours ago, gold hit $5,600, then collapsed by 8.21% in a straight vertical drop to $5,140, which is a textbook margin liquidation. At the same time, Microsoft dropped 11.7% as tech sold their gold because it was their only profitable asset, and the investors needed cash fast. This is the same liquidity contagion that used to be seen in the crypto market. According to Sinha, gold cannot be sanctioned in a bar. As the West weaponizes the dollar through sanctions and financial controls, the rest of the world needs a neutral exit. In the end, BTC still proved it is a speculative tool, while gold is proving to be the replacement. Why Gold Is Likely To Keep Outperforming Bitcoin A crypto trader known as Doctor Profit pointed out that nearly a year ago, he shared a Gold versus Bitcoin chart, highlighting that once 0.02 BTC equals 1 ounce of gold, it should mark the top for BTC. Meanwhile, when 0.11 BTC equals 1 ounce of gold, it marks the bottom for BTC. This happened in 2021 during the BTC top and during the BTC bottom in 2022. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels According to Doctor Profit, the analysis was later proven right this year by calling the BTC top at $125,000 at 0.02 for 1 ounce of gold. Calculating this move, if 1 BTC is $5,500 in gold price and divided by 0.11, it should be $50,000 BTC, which matches the analysis of BTC bottom for this cycle between $50,000 and $60,000 BTC. However, the analysis played out as expected. If calculated with a gold price of $7,000, the equivalent of BTC bottom should be around $63,000, which also aligns with the bottom target. In the Doctor Profit view, gold might continue to outperform BTC in the coming months. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
While gold has posted major gains, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show major signs of weakness, with prices drifting toward lower support levels and now approaching the closely watched $82,000 mark, a pivotal point in determining the next major direction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Against this backdrop, market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn attention to what he describes as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: the Gold‑to‑Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio. What The Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio Suggests According to Profit, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for major market tops and bottoms. He noted that he first shared this framework nearly a year ago, highlighting a historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold, and bottom when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Toward $85,000 Despite Progress On US Crypto Market Structure Bill Profit pointed out that this relationship played out during the previous cycle, accurately marking Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. He argues that the same pattern has repeated in the current cycle, claiming Bitcoin’s recent top near $125,000 when the gold‑to‑Bitcoin ratio once again reached the 0.02 level. The key question now, he says, is whether the market will again reach the 0.11 BTC‑per‑ounce level that has historically signaled a bottom. Based on current prices, Profit walked through the math. Assuming a gold price of roughly $5,500 per ounce, dividing that figure by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin price near $50,000. That outcome, he noted, aligns with his broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low could fall somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000. He added that even under a more bullish scenario for gold, the analysis still supports his thesis. If gold were to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the same ratio would imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In his view, both scenarios reinforce the idea that gold is likely to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. BTC Nearing Late‑Cycle Bear Phase? Not all analysts, however, share that bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst Michael van de Poppe suggested that gold’s recent strength could be nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin. Van de Poppe highlighted the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin measured against gold on the weekly timeframe, noting that it has reached the lowest level ever recorded. In his assessment, this suggests a sharp imbalance in valuations, with one asset appearing overextended in the short term and the other deeply undervalued. He described the situation as part of what he calls the “big rotation” phase of the market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns The analyst also pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score indicator, a metric used to assess whether the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility. According to van de Poppe, the current Z‑Score for Bitcoin is lower than it was at several major historical bottoms, including those seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID‑19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low. In his view, this signals that BTC is already deep into a bear‑market phase and may be approaching its final stages. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $83,435, with losses of 2.2% and 7% recorded in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has slipped below the $83,000 level as selling pressure continues to dominate global markets, extending a correction that has unfolded alongside broader risk-off conditions. Weakness across equities and commodities has weighed on investor sentiment, and Bitcoin has not been immune to this environment. With volatility elevated and liquidity thinning, market participants are increasingly cautious, and several analysts now point to the possibility of a deeper retracement toward lower demand zones before any meaningful stabilization can occur. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details Beyond price action, on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin network itself is entering a period of unusually low activity. Transaction demand has cooled, and miner fee generation remains muted, signaling limited urgency for blockspace. This “quiet” state reflects a market where speculative interest has faded, and organic usage is subdued, a combination that often emerges during corrective or transitional phases rather than during strong uptrends. At the same time, the lack of aggressive on-chain selling pressure indicates that the move lower is not being driven by panic but by persistent distribution and reduced participation. This creates an environment where price can drift lower with relatively little resistance. As Bitcoin searches for its next area of support, the coming sessions will be critical in determining whether current weakness evolves into a deeper correction or forms the foundation for a more durable base once activity and demand begin to recover. Bitcoin Miner Fees Signal Prolonged Network Dormancy An analysis from Onchain Mind highlights a key metric for assessing the underlying health of the Bitcoin network: the Miner Fees to Block Subsidy Ratio. This indicator measures how much of miners’ revenue comes from transaction fees compared to the fixed block reward, making it a direct proxy for organic demand for blockspace. When users are competing to have transactions included in blocks, fees rise, and this ratio increases. When activity slows, the ratio compresses. Since July, this metric has remained pinned below 1%, marking a sharp and sustained cooldown in network usage. This stands in stark contrast to the conditions seen last May, when the ratio surged above 15% during periods of heightened on-chain activity and speculative demand. At that time, elevated fees reflected strong competition for blockspace and a network operating near capacity. The current environment tells a very different story. Persistently low fee contribution suggests that transaction urgency has largely evaporated, with users showing little willingness to pay premium fees for settlement. Historically, such prolonged periods of subdued fee pressure have been associated with bear market phases, when participation declines and on-chain activity contracts. This does not signal immediate stress for miners, given the dominance of the block subsidy in revenue. However, it does underline a broader slowdown in network engagement, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is currently operating in a low-demand, defensive phase rather than a growth-driven one. Related Reading: Bitmine Stakes Additional 250,912 Ethereum Worth $745M – 61% Is Now Staked Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Structure Strengthens Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect a market under sustained pressure. BTC is now trading near the $83,000 area after failing to hold recent consolidation lows. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the November peak. Confirming that the broader structure remains bearish rather than corrective. Price is firmly below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance, while the 200-day moving average remains well above current levels, reinforcing the loss of long-term trend support. Related Reading: OKX Launches Crypto Payment Card Across the European Economic Area The recent breakdown below the $85,000–$84,000 zone is technically significant. This area had previously acted as a short-term base during December and early January. But the failure to defend it suggests that buyers are no longer willing to absorb supply at these levels. Volume spikes accompanying the latest sell-off indicate distribution rather than capitulation, pointing to continued, orderly selling pressure. The market is transitioning into a price discovery phase toward lower demand zones. If downside momentum persists, the next areas of interest lie near the $80,000 psychological level. Followed by deeper support closer to the low-$70,000 range, where previous consolidation occurred in mid-2024. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Questions are already surfacing over whether Bitcoin is still in the expansion phase that many market participants assume it is. However, a crypto expert opted for a conservative stance, arguing that when Bitcoin is analyzed through traditional cycle theory and macroeconomic indicators, the primary cycle may already be complete. This crypto expert, Tony Severino, challenged popular bullish claims from “snake oil salesmen” and instead pointed to economic data and historical patterns that show the Bitcoin cycle has already transitioned into a different phase. PMI And ISM Datan Shows Where Bitcoin Is According to Tony Severino, Bitcoin’s bullish cycle is already over, and analysts saying otherwise are pushing a fairy tale that may or may not come true. Severino’s outlook is based on the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index, which he views as a reliable macro gauge for cyclical behavior. Related Reading: Global Liquidity Says Bitcoin Is Extremely Undervalued – Here’s The ‘Real’ Figure The PMI data shown in the chart below highlights a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is a signal of a weakening manufacturing environment. According to Severino, real cycles are measured from trough to trough, not from speculative projections of future upside. From that perspective, the current PMI structure means that the cycle has already peaked and is now rolling over. At the time of writing, this index is sitting around 47.9. Severino warned that a sustained move below the 46 level would change the PMI from a local pullback into a more pronounced intermediate downtrend. A drop beneath 41.6 would carry even more serious implications, as that level would fall below the COVID-era low. Such a move would leave only extreme historical comparisons, including conditions last seen during the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis or the stagflation period of the 1970s and early 1980s. Therefore, this macro backdrop directly challenges the idea that Bitcoin is on the verge of a guaranteed new bullish phase. Severino also took direct aim at popular Bitcoin valuation models that compare BTC to gold or rely on long-term projections detached from economic reality. The current reality is that Bitcoin is lagging behind gold and silver, which are attracting consistent inflows in contrast to Bitcoin’s show of fatigue around $80,000. Bullish Conviction To Bearish Targets Severino’s current stance is notable because it is a significant difference from his outlook before the current cycle began, when he was very bullish on Bitcoin. His recent analysis, shown in the chart below, shows Bitcoin breaking below a moving average on the monthly candlestick timeframe. This is notable because similar breakdowns in previous years were followed by drawdowns averaging around 50%. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals How Far Bitcoin Price Will Crash If The Uptrend Doesn’t Continue The chart highlights multiple instances where Bitcoin suffered declines of 40% to over 60% after losing this type of technical support. Based on that historical behavior, Severino has floated a downside target of at least $45,000 before another bullish reversal. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price started a major decline below $86,500. BTC is down nearly 10% and might soon test the $80,000 support zone. Bitcoin failed to remain above $86,500 and started another decline. The price is trading above $85,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $83,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip further if it trades below the $81,000 and $80,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to continue higher above the $88,000 zone. BTC started a major decline below the $87,200 and $86,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $85,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $82,000. A low was formed at $81,000 and the price is still signaling more downsides. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $83,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $83,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $80,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $82,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $83,200 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,438 swing high to the $81,000 low. A close above the $83,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $85,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $85,700 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,438 swing high to the $81,000 low. The next barrier for the bulls could be $87,000 and $87,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $83,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $81,000 level. The first major support is near the $80,500 level. The next support is now near the $80,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $77,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $81,000, followed by $80,000. Major Resistance Levels – $82,000 and $83,200.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Thursday, extending the downward trend seen throughout the week and briefly falling below the closely watched $85,000 level, despite progress on long-awaited US crypto legislation failing to lift market sentiment. Crypto Prices Fall Despite Regulatory Progress The decline came on the same day the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the proposed crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act. While the committee’s action was widely viewed as a positive development for the digital asset industry, it did little to support prices in the short term. Related Reading: White House To Host Crypto And Banking Leaders In Push To Break Regulatory Deadlock Instead of triggering a rally, the news coincided with a sharp market sell‑off. Bitcoin dropped by roughly $2,700 in a short period, setting off a wave of liquidations that erased an estimated $356 million in long positions. Data from Coinglass further shows that total liquidations across the crypto market reached about $803 million over the past 24 hours, including roughly $693 million in long liquidations and $109 million in short liquidations. Bitcoin Hovers Near Breakdown Levels As earlier reported by Bitcoinist, the CLARITY Act cleared an important procedural hurdle earlier on Thursday when the Senate Agriculture Committee approved its section of the bill during a scheduled markup. The legislation aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. With the Agriculture Committee’s approval secured, lawmakers must merge the provisions that expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) role with parallel sections overseen by the Senate Banking Committee, which address the Securities and Exchange Commission’s jurisdiction. At the same time, legislators will need to determine whether bipartisan backing can still be achieved for a measure that could significantly reshape crypto regulation in the US. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns From a technical perspective, market analyst Rekt Capital said that in the near term, Bitcoin needs to prevent the former range low around $86,000 from turning into resistance on lower time frames. He added that a weekly close above that level would be necessary to avoid a deeper breakdown. According to his analysis, a decisive break below the roughly $86,000 area could open the door to another test of the macro triangle bottom near $82,500. A further drop below that level, he cautioned, would signal an acceleration of bearish momentum. As of now, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has only briefly recovered to $85,135. However, it is still far from reaching the critical level outlined by the analyst. Therefore, Friday’s price action will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Cryptocurrency markets have shown limited momentum this week, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum lingering in narrow price ranges. This price action comes on the heels of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Traders and investors appeared to have taken a wait-and-see approach, leaving the largest digital assets stuck in consolidation without any breakout in either direction. Fed Policy And Market Expectations The Federal Reserve chose to hold benchmark interest rates at 3.50-3.75% in its latest policy meeting on Wedensday, a decision that was largely anticipated by markets. Still, this meeting marked the first pause in policy easing since July 2025, ending a stretch where the central bank cut rates three times last year while assessing how the economy was responding to President Donald Trump’s combative fiscal and trade policies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following The 2022 Fractal? Here Was The Previous Outcome By choosing to step back from further cuts, policymakers have now taken a more cautious stance before adjusting rates again. However, two governors dissented, preferring a quarter-point cut. Stephen Miran, as well as Christopher Waller, advocated for a 25-basis-point cut. The pause is continued caution about inflation and economic data, suggesting further easing won’t come without clear evidence of weaker economic conditions. In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. This kind of higher-for-longer message can dampen risk appetite, and cryptocurrencies, which are viewed as risk assets, are feeling the impact. Bitcoin And Ethereum Locked In Tight Consolidation Recent price action across Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to indicate a market stuck in indecision. Bitcoin briefly tested the psychological $90,000 level but failed to establish acceptance above it, slipping back into a narrow range around $87,000 to $89,000. Related Reading: Analyst Says You’re Not Bullish Enough On Ethereum – What Does He Mean? A recent rejection at $90,000 has limited upside follow-through and has kept both buyers and sellers cautious, as neither side has been able to take control. This lack of momentum is also reflected in steady outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which witnessed $28.1 million in outflows in the past 24 hours. Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin’s behavior almost step for step. The price broke above $3,000 very briefly in the past 24 hours, but it has since rejected and is back to trading around $2,900. This movement puts it oscillating within a tight band without delivering a decisive breakout or breakdown. Interestingly, Spot Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, had $28.10 million in inflows in the past 24 hours. Although on-chain indicators like increasing wallet participation show underlying engagement, those signals have yet to translate into a sustained bullish momentum. Profit-taking near the $3,000 resistance and uncertainty have continued to restrict short-term gains. As it stands, both Bitcoin and Ethereum seem likely to remain confined to their current ranges until a stronger catalyst emerges. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
A report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how transitions into strong upside phases have historically required liquidity to hold above a key threshold. Bitcoin Rally Could Require Realized Profit/Loss Ratio To Rise Above 5 In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about liquidity conditions present on the Bitcoin network as the asset’s price has gone through a drawdown following its failed recovery attempt earlier in the month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back “Any meaningful transition back toward a sustained rally should objectively be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA),” explained the analytics firm. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio refers to an indicator that, as its name suggests, compares the realized profit and loss that BTC investors realize from their transactions. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the holders as a whole are realizing a higher amount of profit than loss. On the other hand, the indicator being under the threshold suggests loss-taking is dominant on the network. Naturally, if the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is exactly equal to 1, the average holder can be assumed to be just breaking even on their selling, with profits and losses being harvested on the blockchain exactly canceling each other out. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day moving average (MA) of this Bitcoin indicator over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day MA Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio hit a peak during the second half of 2025 as investors exited with gains in the bull run. Since this high, however, the indicator has seen a sharp decline. At the peak, the metric’s value reached close to 20, indicating profits outweighed losses by nearly 20 times, but recently, it has slipped all the way down to a level less than 2. Profit-taking is still dominant in the sector from the perspective of the indicator, but profits are less than double the losses now. According to Glassnode, transitions into strong upsides have historically required this metric to rise and hold above a value of 5. Currently, the metric’s trajectory is still pointing down, so it’s uncertain whether it will see any improvement in the near future and if it does, whether it will climb back above this threshold. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? That said, twice in this cycle alone, Bitcoin liquidity has gone under this level and managed to return above it. Though in both of those instances, it found a bottom at levels noticeably above the current value. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,800, down 2.4% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin has recently formed a technical crossover that preceded bearish shifts in the past. Bitcoin Has Seen A Death Cross Between 21-Day & 50-Day SMAs In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a daily price chart for Bitcoin showcasing a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) that the asset has gone through recently. An SMA is a statistical tool that averages a quantity over a given period of time and that, as its name suggests, updates in time with the quantity. This tool can be useful for studying long-term trends, as it smooths out the graph by eliminating short-term fluctuations. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? SMAs can be taken over any window, but in the context of the current topic, two specific periods are of relevance: 21-day and 50-day. Below is the chart posted by Martinez that shows the trend in these SMAs for Bitcoin over the past decade. From the graph, it’s visible that the daily Bitcoin price has seen its 21-day SMA fall below the 50-day one recently. In the past, this crossover has tended to act as a “death cross” for the cryptocurrency, with its price plunging after the signal’s appearance. In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the previous instances of this death cross. It would appear that the asset experienced drawdowns ranging between 54% and 69% following the crossover. The most recent occurrence of the crossover was in 2022, leading into a price decline of almost 66% to the bear market bottom. Given the past pattern, it only remains to be seen whether the 21-day SMA going below the 50-day SMA will prove to be bearish for Bitcoin this time. In the scenario that bearish momentum does follow for the asset, it could be at risk of breaching below an on-chain level known as the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio. This level represents the ratio between two on-chain indicators: the Realized Price and Liveliness. The first of these tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin blockchain, while the latter encapsulates the spending/HODLing behavior of long-term investors. As Martinez has highlighted in another X post, Bitcoin has been trading near the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio recently. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio is situated around $87,500 right now. BTC briefly fell below this mark during the Sunday dip, but the coin has since recovered back above it. Related Reading: Next Ethereum Move Hinges On This Level, Says Glassnode Analyst “The last time Bitcoin $BTC fell below the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio, it moved toward the Realized Price,” noted the analyst. Currently, the Realized Price is located at $56,000. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,500, up 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns. In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is spreading beyond short‑term traders and gradually affecting longer‑term holders. In previous market cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator started trending upward well before prices reached their eventual lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs During those periods, Bitcoin prices continued to decline even after the metric turned higher, with true market bottoms forming only once supply in loss expanded much further and broader capitulation set in. At present, CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s supply in loss remains well below levels typically associated with full market capitulation. However, the change in direction itself is significant. The analysts say it suggests the market may be shifting into a bearish structural phase, rather than experiencing a brief correction within an ongoing bull market. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to reflect that uncertainty. The asset is currently trading around $89,700 and has struggled to reclaim the key $90,000 level as support. This follows a steady decline from earlier yearly-highs near $98,000, where upward momentum faded as buying pressure weakened and gains recorded at the start of the year were fully erased. US Dollar Tests Historic Zone For Bitcoin Rallies Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts believe the outlook is entirely negative. Analysts at Bull Theory have highlighted a potentially bullish catalyst that could emerge in the months ahead, centered on movements in the US dollar. In a recent post on social media platform X (previously Twitter) the firm pointed out that the US Dollar Index is testing the same zone that preceded major Bitcoin bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. According to their analysis, the Dollar Index has broken below a long‑term trendline that has held for roughly 16 years and is now hovering around the critical level of 96. Historically, periods when the DXY fell below 96 and remained there coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis As seen in the chart below, in mid‑2017, the index dropped under that level, after which Bitcoin surged nearly eightfold over the following five to six months. A similar pattern played out during the 2020 pandemic era. When a wave of liquidity entered financial markets at the time, the DXY again slipped below 96, and Bitcoin went on to rise roughly seven times over the next seven to eight months. During that same period, Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins posted gains of tenfold or more. For now, the market sits at a crossroads. On‑chain data points to early bear‑market dynamics, while macro signals linked to the US dollar offer a counter‑narrative that could favor renewed strength. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $89,500 but failed above $90,000. BTC is declining and might dip further if it breaks $88,000. Bitcoin failed to remain above $90,000 and started another decline. The price is trading above $88,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with support at $88,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip further if it trades below the $88,000 and $87,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection Bitcoin price remained stable above the $88,000 support. BTC formed a base and recently started a recovery wave above the $88,500 level. The price climbed above the $89,000 and $89,500 levels. There was a move above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,098 swing high to the $86,007 low. The bulls even pushed the price above $90,000 but they failed to keep the price in a positive zone. There was a fresh decline below $89,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $88,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a rising channel forming with support at $88,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $88,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $89,150 level. The first key resistance is near the $89,800 level. A close above the $89,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,250 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $91,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $92,000 and $92,500. Another Rejection In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $89,150 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $88,200 level. The first major support is near the $88,000 level. The next support is now near the $87,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $87,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $86,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $88,200, followed by $87,000. Major Resistance Levels – $89,150 and $89,800.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Loss indicator has witnessed a shift in direction that has often led into bearish phases in past cycles. 365-Day SMA Of The Bitcoin Supply In Loss Has Been Rising Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Supply in Loss has started to trend up again. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total BTC circulating supply that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss. Related Reading: Next Ethereum Move Hinges On This Level, Says Glassnode Analyst The indicator works by scanning through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the network. If this previous transaction value for any coin was greater than the latest spot price, then the metric assumes that particular token to be underwater. The Supply in Loss adds up all coins falling in this category and finds what part of the supply they make up for. A counterpart metric known as the Supply in Profit tracks the supply of the opposite type. Since the total supply must add up to a 100%, however, the Supply in Profit is simply equal to the Supply in Loss subtracted from 100. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Supply in Loss over the cryptocurrency’s history: As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day SMA Bitcoin Supply in Loss plummeted to the lowest point for the cycle back in October. This plunge came as the asset rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) beyond the $126,000 level. Since the low, however, the indictor has witnessed a rapid climb, a consequence of the bearish momentum that BTC has faced following its ATH. So far, the indicator hasn’t risen to a significant level compared to past capitulation levels, but the change in direction has been solidifying itself. “Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer-term participants,” explained the quant. From the chart, it’s visible that bearish transitions in past cycles occurred as the indicator shot up, with a high value in it coinciding with the cycle bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Interest Fades As Retail Chases Gold, Silver Hype Whether the recent reversal in the Supply in Loss is the beginning of something similar only remains to be seen. Earlier in this cycle, an upward turn in the indicator ended up only being temporary, as the H1-2025 drawdown gave way to renewed bullish momentum rather than a prolonged bear phase. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com