Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a notable surge, gaining 3% in the last 24 hours, climbing from $84,000 to $88,600, following reports that upcoming US tariffs on major trading partners will be less severe than initially anticipated. However, altcoins like Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) have outperformed Bitcoin’s surge in the 24-hour time frame, being the top gainers in the ten largest cryptocurrencies list. Bitcoin And Top Altcoins Experience Significant Gains Scheduled for announcement on April 2, President Donald Trump had previously indicated that he would impose both reciprocal and sector-specific tariffs on countries including Canada, China, and Mexico. However, anonymous sources within the White House, as reported by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, have suggested that the president may opt for a narrower approach, focusing solely on reciprocal tariffs. According to the reports, this shift in strategy appears to signal a tempering of the administration’s approach to a “potential trade war”, which has historically led to increased volatility in both the cryptocurrency and equity markets. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Suffer April Flash Crash, Analyst Shows How Low It Could Go Dan Greer, CEO of Defi App, a decentralized finance platform, noted the correlation between Bitcoin’s recent price increase and the news of the tariff adjustments. “This surge in Bitcoin’s price coincides with reports that the Trump administration is considering narrowing the scope of tariffs set to take effect on April 2,” he stated. The positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin has extended to the broader cryptocurrency market, with nearly all of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization experiencing gains on Monday. Ethereum rose by 4%, XRP by 2%, Solana, DOGE and Cardano led the pack with increases of 8%, 7.8% and 4.5% respectively. The stock market reflected this optimism, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rising 2% over the past 24 hours. Expert Insights On BTC’s Recent Fluctuations Greer highlighted that this development has alleviated some market uncertainties, leading to increased investor confidence across both cryptocurrency and equity markets. The crypto sector, which has faced mixed reactions since Trump took office, has been grappling with the implications of his fluctuating tariff policies. These policies have introduced a considerable degree of economic uncertainty, prompting many investors to retreat from riskier assets. Related Reading: Analyst Sets Dogecoin Next Target As Ascending Triangle Forms The anticipated tariffs—expected to raise the prices of foreign goods—could lead to inflation, further complicating the economic landscape. Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of $109,000 in January, has seen a decline, dropping to $78,000 earlier this month amid fears that aggressive economic policies could trigger a recession. Colin Closser, investor relations manager at crypto wallet company Exodus, expressed his understanding of the crypto market’s reaction to Trump’s policies. “I expect markets to show emotion and volatility during times of change and stress in the United States, and you can see that volatility in Bitcoin this morning,” he remarked. Since the spike, Bitcoin has seen a bit of a pullback towards the $86,930 level, with the most notable support floor between $83,000 and $84,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Tony “The Bull” Severino, a well-followed crypto analyst, recently took to the social media platform X to share a detailed breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical price behavior. The analysis uses a cyclical lens that many in the crypto community (both bulls and bears) agree holds significant relevance. Notably, Tony Severino focuses on the concept of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles and how troughs and crests have consistently marked the periods of greatest opportunity and greatest risks for investing in Bitcoin. This analysis comes in light of Bitcoin’s recent price correction below $90,000 in March. Cycles Define Sentiment: From Troughs Of Opportunity To Crests Of Risk Severino’s analysis starts from a foundational belief shared across the crypto industry. The widely-held belief is that Bitcoin operates in clearly defined cycles, usually lasting around four years, mostly in relation to its halving cycles. His technical outlook is based on Bitcoin’s cycle indicator on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart that goes as far back as 2013. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash Incoming? Why A Fall To $63,000 Is Possible If This Resistance Holds As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin has gone through four definitive cycles in its history. These cycles, he explains, should be viewed from “trough to trough.” The troughs are the darkest moments in the market, but they also represent the point of maximum financial opportunity. As these cycles progress, Bitcoin transitions through periods of increasing optimism, eventually arriving at what the analyst calls the “cyclical crest.” These crests, highlighted in red in his chart, are the periods where Bitcoin has reached its point of maximum financial risk. This is relayed in the ensuing price actions, with the Bitcoin price topping out right after passing each cyclical crest. Bitcoin passed through its crest in the current market cycle just before reaching its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. If past cycles are any indication, the coming months could reveal whether a top is already in. Right-Translated Peaks: Is BTC Running Out Of Time In This Cycle? Bitcoin has been on a correction path since February and is currently down by 20% from this $108,786 price high. The Bitcoin price has even gone ahead to correct as low as $78,780 in the second week of March, triggering reactions as to whether the crypto has already reached its peak price this cycle. Related Reading: Inverse Head And Shoulders Breakout Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $300,000 However, Bitcoin might not be in the woods yet, as not all crests are followed immediately by market tops. Severino pointed out that past cycles have featured “right-translated” peaks where Bitcoin continued to rise slightly even after crossing the crest. The 2017 bull run was the most right-translated, with price action staying strong for some time after the red-zone crest. In contrast, other cycles began reversing not long after reaching this point of maximum risk. Bitcoin appears to have already passed the red crest based on Severino’s model, but this does not confirm a top is in just yet. Instead, it means that the margin for error is rapidly narrowing. The longer BTC continues to correct after this point, the more elevated the risk of a bearish phase becomes. BTC is attempting to regain bullish momentum at the time of writing, trading at $87,300 after rising 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Many other analysts argue that the Bitcoin price could still chart higher territory this year before a definitive top is confirmed. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts has sounded a stark warning for Bitcoin in the months ahead. Citing his new Bitcoin Derivatives Risk Score (DRS) model, Coutts contends the leading cryptocurrency’s price faces one of two sharp outcomes: a severe downturn or a surge to new all-time highs (ATH). Bitcoin’s Q2 Outlook In commentary shared via X today, Coutts highlights his “first pass” at the DRS model, noting that the market’s most recent instance of “Cat 5 euphoria” in Q1 2024 was followed by a pullback of only around 30%. He contrasts this with a comparable episode in 2019, which saw a 50% decline—widening to 70% if the COVID shock is accounted for. Related Reading: Bitcoin Under Threat? Analyst Explores Two Bearish Black Swan Scenarios to Watch “Looking back at Q1 2024’s Cat 5 euphoria—which I flagged back then (in February 2024)—I’m still surprised the pullback was only -30%. The only similar move outside a cycle top was in 2019, with a 50% drop (70% if you factor in the COVID shock),” he explains. Coutts emphasizes that 2019 is a better barometer for current market conditions than 2021. The rationale, he observes, is that the 2019 rally preceded a major global liquidity expansion. By 2021, Bitcoin had already appreciated 12x off its lows while worldwide liquidity grew by 30%, reflecting a vastly different macro environment. Related Reading: The Fed Blinked — The Bitcoin Bull Run Return Is Now Inevitable Assessing the market’s present risk level, Coutts points out that Bitcoin’s DRS metric has slid into the “low-risk quantile,” a zone he says offers minimal predictive power for future prices. “So, where are we now? Bitcoin’s DRS is in the low-risk quantile—where predictive power is low. If Bitcoin has peaked, we should expect a brutal bleed lower,” he cautions, before adding that the possibility of a rebound remains high. Global Liquidity On The Rise Coutts then underscores global liquidity’s potential to trigger another Bitcoin rally. He believes an upcoming inflection point in global liquidity—driven by the need to stimulate heavily indebted economies—will likely fuel the derivatives market, which he calculates to be four times bigger than the spot market. “That’s not my outlook though. Global liquidity is ready to inflect that will re-invigorate the derivatives market (4x Spot), potentially jettisoning Bitcoin to new ATHs by May (or end of Q2 for extra padding).” Another key insight from Coutts centers on the Global Liquidity Index, which he says has been in contraction for an unprecedented stretch. “This marks the longest contraction of the Global Liquidity Index in Bitcoin’s history—three years and counting (measured from the peak). Previous tightening episodes (2014–2016 and 2018–2019) lasted < 2yrs. How much longer will this go on?” He argues that a renewed injection of liquidity is inevitable, pointing out that governments—especially those with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%—would be hard-pressed to refinance if nominal GDP lags behind rising interest costs. “The fiat, fractional-reserve, debt-based system will implode without liquidity injections. The spice must flow.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,703. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Over the years, investor sentiment has been one reliable way to analyze the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. Based on recent on-chain data, an analyst has pointed out how the changing investor sentiment could affect the world’s largest cryptocurrency over the next few weeks. Can BTC Price Charge To New All-Time High? In a recent post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr explained how the Bitcoin market dynamics could significantly shift in the coming weeks. This projection is based on recent changes in the “Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Nears Major Resistance At $2,200, Why A 13% Crash Could Follow The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index refers to a metric that aggregates the average sentiment of investors in the BTC market. The indicator is divided into five zones, including extreme fear, fear, neutral, greed, and extreme greed. Extreme fear signals that traders and investors are moving with high caution, while extreme greed suggests an overheating market condition with traders flooding in with new positions. Historically, periods of extreme fear have been correlated with market bottoms while price corrections usually occur during extreme greed. According to Adler Jr., the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen by approximately 22 percentage points over the past two months. This decline has seen the BTC metric shift from extreme greed to a more moderate level of greed. Going further, the on-chain analyst mentioned that if the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops by another 10 to 15 points in the near future, the market may experience a cooling-off period where participants could have become accustomed to negative factors and emotional price movements may even subside. Adler Jr added in his post: At the current pace, it may take approximately 4 to 6 weeks for the index to drop by an additional 10–15 points. The analyst also highlighted that the 30-day (monthly) moving average appears to be reaching a local bottom, one seen at the end of the Bitcoin price correction to $54,000. The last time the Fear and Greed Index monthly SMA reached this level, the premier cryptocurrency climbed to a new all-time high price. If this historical pattern holds, investors could see the BTC price break out of its consolidation range. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is just beneath the $84,000 level, reflecting a 0.5% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price To $27: Why Current ‘Boredom Phase’ Could Trigger Epic Rally Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A recent analysis comparing Bitcoin’s price movement and the Global M2 money supply has added another data point to the growing argument for a bullish phase ahead for the cryptocurrency. Colin, a crypto analyst known on social media platform X as “The M2 Guy,” recently shared an update suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a significant upward move, and the expected timeline might continue to test the patience of Bitcoin traders. Bitcoin’s Incoming Rally May Mirror M2’s Explosive Growth Colin, a crypto analyst known on X as “The M2 Guy,” has continued to build his case around the correlation between Bitcoin and macro liquidity trends. His outlook on Bitcoin, which is currently bullish, is based on an offset correlation between the cryptocurrency’s price action on the daily candlestick chart and the global M2 money supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 Money Supply Shows A Big Move Coming, Here’s The Target In a previous analysis, the analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price action on the daily candlestick chart has the best correlations on the 70-day and 107-day offsets. The most recent update from the analyst focuses on the 107-day offset, which he termed “the most likely scenario.” Analysis of Bitcoin’s 107-day offset with the global M2 money supply shows that Bitcoin is about to go on a blast-off spike. However, this isn’t just about a one-day spike. Colin projects the rally could last for two months based on the sharp vertical trend of the global M2 supply. As for the timing, the 107-day offset suggests that the blast-off spike is expected to kick off around April 30 based on a mathematically strong correlation. If the M2 line continues its upward surge, the rally could last even longer. Focus On The Macro, Not Just The Day Although April 30 is a focal point in his projection, Colin cautioned followers not to become overly fixated on the exact date. “Don’t get caught up in the weeds,” he advised. The larger narrative is more important, reflected in the soaring global M2 levels, which should create an environment ripe for Bitcoin and other crypto assets to benefit from increased liquidity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Turns Green For The First Time In 2025 In terms of a price target, the current trajectory of the global M2 money supply points to a rally above $140,000. However, interesting predictions have suggested that the Bitcoin price has a chance of doubling before the end of 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,310, having spent the last 24 hours trading in a range between $83,700 and $84,300. Based on this analysis of correlation with the global M2 money, bullish Bitcoin investors might need to wait for at least another month before any significant movement. This delay might pose challenges for short-term traders depending on their positioning and risk tolerance. On the other hand, it gives long-term holders the opportunity to accumulate more bitcoins at the current low price before the predicted rally. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
The price of Bitcoin has been moving mostly sideways over the past week, briefly flirting with the $87,000 level on Thursday, March 20. The latest on-chain data suggests that this choppy market condition might not improve soon, as the premier cryptocurrency might be at risk of downward pressure over the coming weeks. What Does Rising Exchange Whale Ratio Mean For Price? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym EgyHash revealed that the activity of Bitcoin whales on centralized exchanges has been rising in the past few weeks. The on-chain analyst offered insights on how this budding trend could impact the price dynamics of Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Price To $27: Why Current ‘Boredom Phase’ Could Trigger Epic Rally This on-chain observation is based on the changes in the “Exchange Whale Ratio” metric, which calculates the ratio between the sum of the top 10 largest transfers into centralized exchanges and the total exchange inflow. For context, the 10 largest exchange inflows are from whale addresses — entities that hold significant influence on the market due to their substantial crypto holdings. This Exchange Whale Ratio indicator offers insight into the activity of this investor class relative to the other investors in the crypto market. A high value for this metric suggests that the 10 largest exchange inflows are cumulatively larger than the incoming transfers from the rest of the market. Conversely, when the Exchange Whale Ratio is low, it implies that whales contribute a relatively healthy part of funds flowing into centralized exchanges. According to the Quicktake analyst, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has climbed to levels not seen since last year. The chart below shows that this metric has been on the rise since December 2024 before reaching a new high of over 0.6 in the past week — and for the first time since September 2024. Typically, inflows into centralized exchanges tend to negatively impact the value of the flagship cryptocurrency, as selling is one of the services offered by these platforms. Egyhash noted that the steady rise in the Exchange Whale Ratio could be a bearish signal for the price of Bitcoin, as it indicates that large investors might be pulling out of the market. Moreover, whales sending their assets to exchanges can trigger a sell-off cascade, as other investor cohorts often monitor their trades due to their significant market influence. Ultimately, the selling pressure that might result from the rising Exchange Whale Ratio could threaten Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is sitting just above the $84,000 mark, recording no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Investors Withdraw 360,000 Ethereum From Exchanges In Just 48 Hours – Accumulation Trend? Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes above the critical $80,000 support level after a significant downturn of over 25% from its January peak, market analyst Doctor Profit has released a compelling report that raises a pivotal question: is the market witnessing the onset of a bear market, or is the bullish sentiment still intact? M2 Money Supply And Bitcoin Price Doctor Profit emphasizes the crucial role of liquidity in the current market landscape. While many celebrate the increase in the M2 Money Supply—a key economic indicator—there’s a vital need to understand the timing of its effects. Historically, M2 has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements. Unlike stock markets, which typically react to M2 expansions after a lag of about six months, Bitcoin tends to respond more rapidly, though not instantaneously. According to the analyst, the “misconception” that money printing leads to immediate market upswings is addressed, as there are multiple factors at play, including macroeconomic conditions. Related Reading: Analyst Says Dogecoin Could Skyrocket 16% Any Moment The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions regarding interest rates are particularly influential. Although official data suggests inflation is declining, underlying realities, such as OPEC’s influence on oil prices, complicate the outlook. In the context of rising M2, Doctor Profit predicts that Bitcoin’s bullish trend could resume around May or June, but anticipates a period of sideways movement and potential short-term bearish pressure leading up to that point. He warns that many who are currently bullish may shift to a bearish stance as the market evolves. In the report, Doctor Profit highlights the significance of the weekly EMA50—a critical moving average he refers to as the “Golden Line”—which Bitcoin has respected in recent price action. After bouncing off this line at $76,000, the cryptocurrency reached the anticipated $87.4K, triggering several short positions. Long-Term Bullish Outlook With Short-Term Caution Looking ahead, Doctor Profit’s strategy involves targeting a potential drop to the $70,000 to $74,000 zone. This region is crucial; if Bitcoin merely wicks into it but then closes strongly above the Golden Line, he plans to take long positions. Doctor Profit maintains a bullish long-term outlook, expecting a resumption of the bull run by mid-2024, with price targets ranging from $120,000 to $140,000. He remains cautious, holding significant cash reserves and expanding short positions in anticipation of market fluctuations. Related Reading: XRP Jumps 7% After Surge In Network Activity & Whale Buying Doctor Profit outlines two bearish scenarios that traders should consider: a manageable drop to the $70,000 to $74,000 range and the more severe “Black Swan” event that could push prices down to the $50,000 region. While he is confident in a bounce at the higher target, he advises preparedness for both scenarios. At the time of writing, BTC is hovering around $84,000, recording losses of 3.5% and 12% in the fourteen and thirty days time frame respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Over the past few weeks, the Bitcoin price has not been able to sustain any meaningful momentum in the journey to recover its six-figure valuation. After falling to just above $81,000 on Tuesday, March 18, the flagship cryptocurrency pushed for the $87,000 mark before facing a significant level. Below is why the $87,000 level could prove pivotal to the long-term health of the Bitcoin price. 5.58 Million BTC Addresses ‘Sitting On A Hot Potato’ In a March 21 post on the X platform, popular crypto analyst Maartunn discussed the significance of $87,000 as a crucial level for the future trajectory of the Bitcoin price. The reasoning behind this specific analysis is the average on-chain cost basis of several BTC investors. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Forms Megaphone Bottom Not Seen Since 2020, Here’s What Happened Last Time Cost-basis analysis involves evaluating the capacity of a price level to act as either resistance or support based on the total amount of coins purchased in or around it. As observed in the chart below, the size of the dot reflects the number of coins bought within a particular price bracket. (hence the strength of the support or resistance area). According to Maartunn, about 5.58 million addresses acquired 3.79 million BTC (worth $367 billion at an average price of $97,059) between the $87,867 – $106,839 region. The analyst noted that the investors here are “sitting on a hot potato” and in the red, as they all bought at prices well above the current price. Typically, this $87,867 – $106,839 region serves as a crucial resistance area, as investors are likely to sell their assets should the Bitcoin price return to their cost basis. This selling activity would put some downward pressure on the premier cryptocurrency, hindering the further upward price movement. Furthermore, Maartunn identified the investors within the $87,867 – $106,839 region as short-term holders, a class of investors known to be “fragile” and more reactive to slight market movements. Hence, the analyst noted that this might not be an ideal scenario, especially if the market sees another wave of bearish pressure. Short-term holders have been associated with significant sell-off events (in reaction to price fluctuations). Ultimately, this implies that the Bitcoin market could experience a severe capitulation event if the short-term investors in the $87,867 – $106,839 region are forced to realize their losses. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is hovering around the $84,000 mark, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Is It Time To Buy The Bitcoin Dip? Analysts Share Insights On Current Market Conditions Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A crypto market technician is debating whether Bitcoin has reached its peak this bull cycle, as technical indicators suggest a potential loss of momentum. The analysis report highlights technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which failed to reach past extremes, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Bitcoin Indicators Fall Short Of Historical Peaks Bitcoin has historically exhibited strong indicator readings during major cycle tops, reflecting extreme market engagement and enthusiasm. However, in this bull cycle, the pioneer cryptocurrency’s RSI reading has failed to reach historical peaks despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish, Why Bulls Have Only 20 Days Tony Severino, a crypto market technician on X (formerly Twitter), has Bitcoin Price Risks Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish, Why Bulls Have Only 20 Days a detailed analysis of Bitcoin, challenging the assumption that the cryptocurrency must reach the same overbought RSI levels as in previous cycles to confirm its market peak. The key argument here is that lower highs on oscillators like the RSI, combined with higher highs in Bitcoin’s price, can be a bearish signal, suggesting waning strength in the market. Severino shared an example comparing Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to past cycles. In the previous bull market, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI reached above 90, but its current cycle has not. The analyst posed a question about whether this inability to reach past extremes means that Bitcoin hasn’t reached a market top or simply lacked the same momentum to push its RSI to the highest level. The analyst has warned that believing that Bitcoin must reach past extremes on indicators before hitting a price peak is a dangerous way of thinking. Historical patterns do not always repeat in the same way, and relying too much on past indicator peaks could cause traders to miss warning signs of a top or underestimate the possibility of a bear market. Severino also pointed to historical data from the S&P 500 in the 1950s and 1960s, where similar RSI failure preceded a long market meltdown. During these times, cyclical peaks hit RSI readings of 77 or higher, but in 1969, the RSI failed to reach those highs, signaling underlying weakness. This market downturn ultimately led to the first lower low in over 20 years. While this historical behavior of the S&P 500 does not mean that Bitcoin is destined for a lower high, it does suggest that the cryptocurrency does not need to reach extreme RSI levels to confirm a cycle top and a subsequent bear market. Analyst Says BTC Has Hit Its Market Top In his analysis Severino confirmed that Bitcoin has already hit its market top for this bull cycle. Following his detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s RSI levels, a community member asked if Severino believes that Bitcoin reached a market top when its price surged above $109,000. Related Reading: This Analyst Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash From $91,000, Why It’s Far From Over The analyst responded positively, stating that current market data indicates that the cryptocurrency hit its highest price point for this bull cycle after Donald Trump’s US Inauguration Day. At the time, Bitcoin soared past $109,000, setting a new ATH and surpassing previous records. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise Asset Management, delivered a striking long-term forecast for Bitcoin on the latest episode of the Coinstories podcast. Speaking with host Nathalie Brunell, Hougan outlined why he believes that BTC will not only disrupt gold but also climb as high as $1 million per coin by 2029. He attributed this bullish prediction to rapid institutional adoption, emerging regulatory clarity, and persistent long-term demand outstripping new supply. Why Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million By 2029 During the interview, Hougan pointed to the dramatic impact of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a primary factor behind institutional inflows. He described the surge in new capital after the ETFs launched in January 2024 as far larger than most analysts anticipated. “Before the Bitcoin ETFs launched, the most successful ETF of all time gathered $5 billion dollars in its first year,” he said. “These [Bitcoin] ETFs did thirty-seven billion.” He added that this astonishing pace of inflows could continue, largely because “fewer than half of all financial advisers in the US can even have a proactive conversation” about investing in Bitcoin at present. Once constraints are lifted and more advisers are permitted to recommend Bitcoin to their clients, he expects an even bigger influx of assets. Related Reading: The Fed Blinked — The Bitcoin Bull Run Return Is Now Inevitable When asked about competition among top ETF providers, Hougan stressed that BlackRock’s entry into the space ultimately benefits the entire industry by boosting overall participation. He highlighted how his firm, Bitwise, focuses on meeting the needs of both institutional investors and crypto specialists who want a “crypto native” manager. Although Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin ETF launched alongside several other prominent players, Hougan said he sees the fierce competition as constructive for investors, because it has driven fees to “rock bottom.” He noted that his firm’s management fees are lower than those of many traditional commodity ETFs and concluded, “It’s an incredible deal for the investor.” Aside from these large-scale shifts in institutional finance, Hougan also drew attention to the rapid expansion of stablecoins. He called them a “killer app,” citing the worldwide appetite for cheaper, faster transaction rails and explaining that stablecoins, which settle on blockchains, can improve cross-border money flows. He anticipates a stablecoin market measured in the trillions in the coming years, especially if supportive regulatory frameworks emerge. While he acknowledged the United States may enact legislation that shapes whether stablecoin issuers hold short or long-dated treasuries, he expressed hope that the market would remain free enough to foster continued competition and innovation. The conversation also touched on mounting corporate interest, which Hougan said faces hurdles such as “weird accounting rules,” but has nonetheless proven robust. He pointed out how corporations “bought hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin last year” and believes these early movers signify a bigger wave to come once accounting and due diligence considerations are ironed out. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Isn’t Over: Cathie Wood Predicts $1.5 Million His firm’s private surveys, he said, reveal a striking gap between advisers’ personal enthusiasm for Bitcoin—where “over 50%” already hold it themselves—and the roughly 15–20% who can formally allocate it on behalf of client portfolios. That number, he predicts, will keep rising as internal committees grant advisers the green light and as more institutions realize that “if you have a zero percent allocation to crypto, you’re effectively short.” Regulatory Shifts And The Washington Factor Throughout the interview, Hougan repeatedly underscored that the market may be “underpricing the change in Washington.” He recalled how, until very recently, banks were unwilling to take deposits from crypto companies and how multiple subpoenas, lawsuits, and the risk of “being debanked” had a chilling effect on industry growth. Hougan believes that “unless you worked in crypto over the last four years, you can’t imagine how challenging it was,” and that the government’s softer stance now removes an enormous obstacle for capital inflows. He also sees bipartisan support for stablecoin legislation as a powerful sign of regulatory clarity on the horizon. Beyond regulation, Hougan suggested Bitcoin is poised to flourish in a macroeconomic climate rife with uncertainty. He referenced either runaway inflation or a sudden deflationary bust as scenarios people fear, asserting that “if you look at the market, it’s more volatile or open or uncertain than it has been in the past.” From his perspective, even a small allocation to bitcoin provides a non-sovereign hedge against potential monetary or fiscal turbulence. He said that many of Bitwise’s large clients are looking into methods of generating yield on their Bitcoin—whether through derivatives or institutional lending—so they can maintain exposure without selling the asset itself. Such interest, he believes, reflects the strong conviction levels that tend to characterize the crypto community. Hougan’s conclusion circled back to the power of Bitcoin’s constrained supply and deepening institutional demand. He stated that Bitcoin’s finite issuance schedule, coupled with new buyers well outnumbering the amount of new bitcoin mined, will likely continue pushing the price up over time. “I think Bitcoin is well on its way to disrupting gold,” he said. “We think it’s going to cross a million dollars by 2029.” Although he emphasized that day-to-day price swings can be dramatic, he is convinced that the long-term fundamentals remain unassailable. At press time, BTC traded at $84,138. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%–4.5% range – and Bitcoin reacted instantly. The pause, while widely anticipated, came with a slightly revised outlook that includes a slower timeline for future rate cuts and a notable adjustment to the central bank’s balance sheet reduction pace. According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, the Fed’s “Dot Plot” now indicates only two 25 basis-point rate cuts for this year—fewer than many market participants expected in December. Policymakers stressed that while interest rates remain in restrictive territory, the timing of actual cuts hinges on the path of economic indicators, particularly inflation and employment. However, the latest statement no longer asserts that inflation and employment are “in balance,” reflecting the Committee’s growing concern about economic uncertainty. But perhaps the most significant pivot was the Fed’s announcement that it will slow the reduction of its bond holdings, commonly known as “quantitative tightening” (QT). Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Are Back—Could This Be the Catalyst for the Next Rally? Beginning in April, the monthly runoff for government bonds will drop from $25 billion to $5 billion—a substantial downshift that many analysts consider a prelude to a more accommodative stance if economic or market conditions deteriorate. What This Means For Bitcoin Shortly after the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin rallied roughly 4–5%, briefly surpassing the USD 86,000 level. Nik Bhatia—founder of The Bitcoin Layer and author of Bitcoin Age—took to his latest video update to dissect the decision’s implications. “Bitcoin up 4% on the news that the Fed slows QT and is still committed to cutting interest rates,” Bhatia said at the start of his analysis, noting that the market had been laser-focused on whether the central bank would modify its quantitative tightening approach. Bhatia explained how the reduction of the monthly runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion can loosen liquidity constraints in the overall system: “Now the Fed is also still contracting its balance sheet, but now it will do so by only five billion a month as opposed to 25 billion a month, and that is a material change,” he said. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Isn’t Over: Cathie Wood Predicts $1.5 Million “This isn’t some, ‘Hey, we’re on the cusp of QE now just ‘cause we went from 25 to a five,’ but the first step is to get the balance sheet to stop shrinking … so that if the Fed needs to pivot, it can go quickly from 5 billion in QT a month to some modest expansion.” Bhatia underscored that such a move can fuel market risk appetite: “The market sees the Fed for what it is: it supports credit creation which expands balance sheets across the world, and that flow ends up in asset prices … some of those assets can be stocks, Bitcoin—[and] other financial assets.” Other experts are even more drastic in their assessment. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated via X: “JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.” Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pretty much agrees: “After last night, QT is effectively dead (for some time). Treasury volatility has backed right off and is now mirroring the decline in DXY from earlier this month. This is all extremely liquidity-positive.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $85,881. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s long-term holders have resumed accumulation in what is a notable shift in investor sentiment despite the turbulence that has gripped the market in recent weeks. Particularly, data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode shows that the “BTC: Long-term holder net position change” metric has flipped positive for the first time this year. This suggests that long-term Bitcoin investors are capitalizing on market conditions to add significant amounts of BTC to their holdings. Long-Term Holders Add 167,000 BTC Amid March Crash Earlier this month, Bitcoin’s price plunged from above $90,000 to around $80,000 during a rapid sell-off. This price stunned many traders and triggered a continuous wave of liquidations among short-term investors. Yet despite this steep correction, long-term holders treated the sub-$90,000 levels as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to capitulate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Officially Enter Into Greed Territory, Is This Good Or Bad For Price? In other words, coins are moving into wallets that haven’t spent their BTC in a long time, which is a notable reversal after starting 2025 with a negative net position change. This marks the first net accumulation by these “HODLers” in 2025. Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric, which had been in the red, flipped “green” as long-term investors aggressively accumulated through the downturn. On-chain data shows that this flip to green has seen long-term holders increase their net Bitcoin holdings by more than 167,000 BTC in the past month. This notable influx is valued at nearly $14 billion. In short, the cohort of seasoned holders began scooping up cheap BTC while short-term sentiment was at its bleakest. Is A Bitcoin Price Recovery Brewing? The timing of this flip from red selloff to green accumulation among long-term holders is striking, considering what the Bitcoin price went through in the past two weeks. This data suggests that a large part of the Bitcoin crash was caused by panic-selling among short-term holders. This behavior aligns with past market cycles between August and September 2024, where long-term holders accumulated aggressively during a price dip. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Headed For $70,000 Or $300,000? What The Charts Are Saying Interestingly, Glassnode’s long-term holder metric isn’t the only one pointing to positive Bitcoin sentiment among large holders. After weeks of uncertainty, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have started seeing net inflows again. On March 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively drew in about $274.6 million, the largest single-day inflow in 28 days and a clear signal of renewed investor interest. The very next day brought another wave of fresh capital, with roughly $209 million pouring into Bitcoin funds on March 18. In fact, this three-day streak represents the first sustained run of positive inflows since February 18, a period during which Bitcoin funds have experienced consecutive days of outflows. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,500. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
In a fresh interview with Bloomberg, ARK Investment Management Founder and CEO Cathie Wood once again reaffirmed her ambitious price target for Bitcoin, predicting it could soar to $1.5 million per coin by the year 2030. Despite the recent market volatility and a pronounced “risk-off” environment, Wood remains steadfast in her conviction that the leading cryptocurrency will continue its long-term upward trajectory. “Yes, it is our view,” Wood replied when asked whether she still expects Bitcoin to reach her stated price target. “I think right now we’re in a risk-off period generally. And if you’ve been watching Bitcoin, it’s almost been a leader in terms of risk on, risk off.” Cathie Wood Still Calls $1.5 Million Bitcoin By 2030 According to Wood, on-chain analytics indicate that Bitcoin is currently “in the middle of a little bit more than halfway through a four-year cycle”—a reference to BTC’s historically repetitive 4-year cycle. She emphasized that “we think we’re still in a bull market” and expects “deregulation” in the United States to play a crucial role in encouraging more institutions to enter the asset class. Wood further argued that institutional asset allocators “have to have a point of view on this new asset class” and that incorporating Bitcoin into portfolios will likely improve risk-adjusted returns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run ‘Is Over’: CryptoQuant CEO Sounds The Alarm Amid a broader market sell-off, Wood suggested a “rolling recession” scenario might already be unfolding. She cited rising concern over job security and an increasing savings rate as evidence: “We see the saving rate going up. We see the velocity of money coming down, and we do think we’ll see one or two negative quarters.” She maintained that such economic stress could compel the Federal Reserve to reverse course later this year: “We wouldn’t be surprised to see two or three cuts. […] We think inflation’s going to surprise on the low side of expectations.” Wood pointed to declining gasoline prices, egg prices, and rents as signals that inflation may be cooling faster than many expect, granting the Fed “more degrees of freedom in the second half of this year.” Turning to regulation, Wood sounded notably optimistic about the “easing regulatory environment” around cryptocurrency. She highlighted the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approach to meme coins, noting that by “declaring these meme coins not securities”, the regulators have essentially said, “Buyer beware […] We think most of them are not going to be worth very much. […] What we think will happen is […] there’s nothing like losing money for people to learn.” However, Wood underscored that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are core assets with “use cases […] multiplying” and likely to remain integral in the crypto ecosystem, in stark contrast to the “millions of meme coins” she believes will eventually lose their value. Related Reading: This Bear Market Indicator Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed For Crash To $40,000, Here’s When Wood also discussed her investment thesis for Robinhood and Coinbase, revealing that ARK views both companies as frontrunners in the battle for digital wallet dominance. She compared digital wallets to credit cards, suggesting “most of us don’t have very many credit cards”—and, by extension, most users will not hold more than a few digital wallets. Additionally, she drew attention to the rise of tokenization, noting that BlackRock’s interest in tokenizing assets is a signal that large-scale players envision a “complicated […] new world” in capital formation. She also cited emerging markets as a key terrain where stablecoins and Bitcoin already serve as backstops to protect purchasing power from currency devaluation: “If you go to emerging markets […] they are using Bitcoin […] but also stablecoins, which is effectively the dollar as backstops to their purchasing power and wealth.” Cathie Wood remains undeterred by short-term fluctuations or market jitters. While reaffirming her high-profile bets on Tesla, Bitcoin, and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence, she reiterated her overarching thesis: innovation and blockchain-based platforms will continue to drive deflationary forces and create new opportunities for growth. “We have been known for our Tesla call and our Bitcoin call. […] I would add in AI platforms as a service company like Palantir.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,322. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price could be headed for more pain, as a crypto analyst has identified a new bear market indicator that suggests a crash to $40,000 is imminent. The analyst has predicted when this deep price decline is set to occur, warning investors to remain cautious or risk selling at a loss. Xanrox, a crypto analyst on TradingView, shared a detailed price analysis of Bitcoin on March 17, predicting that the pioneer cryptocurrency is set to crash to $40,000 by 2026. The analyst revealed that Bitcoin follows a predictable cycle pattern tied to its halving events, which occur every four years. During these years, the market alternates between bull markets, where prices skyrocket, and bear markets, marked by severe corrections. Bear Market Indicator Predicts Next Bitcoin Price Crash Historically, bull markets last between 742 and 1,065 days, which is about 2-3 years. Conversely, bear markets last between 364 and 413 days—approximately one year. Notably, every bull run for each cycle has been weaker than the previous one due to Bitcoin’s rapidly growing market capitalization. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Arthur Hayes Says Be Patient After Bitcoin’s 36% Crash, Reveals Possible Bottom In every cycle, Bitcoin’s price crashes after a bull market, ultimately experiencing a decline between 77% to 86%. Reflecting on this recurring trend, Xanrox forecasts a major Bitcoin price correction, albeit a weaker one than those of previous cycles. The analyst believes that the cryptocurrency will crash 65% to $40,000, citing its significantly larger market capitalization and rapidly growing institutional adoption. He shared a price chart that highlights the various halving cycles and the magnitude of each bull market rally and bear market crash since Bitcoin’s inception. He pointed out that statistically, predicting Bitcoin’s movements with a simple chart has always been accurate, suggesting that his 65% crash prediction was inevitable. Currently, Bitcoin’s considerable market capitalization of $1.63 trillion makes it unrealistic to achieve the extreme growth needed to reach a target of $300,000, $500,000, or even $1 million, as some moon analysts predict. Xanrox suggests that 2025 may be a bearish year, with the next Bitcoin bull run set to begin in 2026, after the bear market. CryptoQuant Says BTC Bull Cycle Is Over Sharing a similar bearish sentiment about the current market, CryptoQuant’s founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Ki Young Ju, has announced the unfortunate end of the Bitcoin bull cycle. Ju revealed that the market should expect 6 – 12 months of choppy price action, indicating the start of the bear market. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin RSI Dominance Needs To Crash To This Level For The Bull Run To Resume He also highlights that every on-chain metric for Bitcoin is signaling a bear market, with fresh liquidity depleting while new whales are selling BTC at a significantly lower price. Moreover, Bitcoin is trading at $82,549, marking an over 20% price crash since its all-time high of more than $109,000 this year. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced today that Bitcoin’s bull cycle “is over” and warned investors to brace for “6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” This development comes after the on-chain analytics veteran had previously urged caution but maintained a measured outlook on the market as recently as two weeks ago. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? In a post shared today via X, Ki stated:“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $10 Million? Experts Predict Explosive Growth By 2035 Along with the comment, the CEO highlighted the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals—an index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, to pinpoint market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points in Bitcoin’s price. According to Ki, this indicator has historically offered reliable buy and sell signals. He further explained how an automated alert, previously sent to his subscribers, combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. Once the trend in this 1-year moving average changes, it often signals a significant market inflection point. As proof, Ki also shared a chart: “This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.” Ki pointed to drying liquidity and fresh selling pressure by “new whales” who, he said, are unloading Bitcoin at lower prices. Notably, he revealed that CryptoQuant users who subscribed to his alerts received this signal before today’s public announcement. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. Cryptoquant users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they’ve already adjusted their positions, so I’m posting this now.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Shorts $445 Million In BTC—Traders Plot Explosive Liquidation This latest declaration contrasts remarks from just four days ago, on March 14, when Ki struck a more cautious tone, stating: “Bitcoin demand seems stuck, but it’s too early to call it a bear market.” At that time, he shared a chart of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum) indicator, which had turned slightly negative—an early signal that demand might be tapering off. Although Ki pointed out that demand could still rebound (as it has in past sideways phases), he acknowledged the possibility of Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a bear market. The pivot in sentiment is especially notable given Ki’s stance from two weeks ago. In that earlier post, he opined that the “bull cycle is still intact,” crediting strong fundamentals and growing mining capacity: “There’s no significant on-chain activity, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting the bull cycle is still intact. Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online.” However, he also cautioned that the market could turn if sentiment did not improve, particularly in the United States. With today’s announcement, the warning has evidently crystallized. Reflecting on the potential downside scenario, Ki said at the time: “If the cycle ends here, it’s an outcome no one wanted—not old whales, mining companies, TradFi, or even Trump. (FYI, the market doesn’t care about retail.)” At press time, BTC traded at $83,059. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price action has been trapped in a tight range between $84,000 and $82,000 in recent days, with bulls struggling to push upwards. The general market sentiment is one of a cautious nature, and hopes of a quick return above $90,000 are starting to fade. However, a new technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant rally, as price action shows the cryptocurrency is currently conforming to the cup-and-handle pattern. Cup And Handle Support Could Cause A Major Bitcoin Rally Recent Bitcoin price movements have drawn attention back to a key technical structure of the handle support of a cup-and-handle pattern, suggesting that a bullish setup may be quietly taking shape. This interesting Bitcoin price activity was relayed in a technical analysis by a crypto analyst on the TradingView platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suppression Below $100,000 Worries Investors, JPMorgan Analysts Reveal Real Problem The cup-and-handle pattern in question has been forming over multiple years, with the rounded bottom phase stretching from 2021 to mid-2024. This prolonged accumulation period saw Bitcoin gradually recover from the bearish market cycle before breaking above its neckline resistance. The breakout started the handle formation in the latter half of 2024, a consolidation phase that set the stage for BTC’s next leg up. By November 2024, Bitcoin completed this handle phase and went on an impressive rally that ultimately resulted in a new all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. However, the recent 24% correction from this all-time high has seen the Bitcoin price returning to the neckine resistance of the cup-and-handle formation. The logical next step is for this neckline resistance to serve as support for the price correction and we could see Bitcoin rebound from here. In terms of a price prediction, Elliott wave analysis and projections put the price target above $130,000, particularly at $139,000. Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests A Surge Toward $130,000 According to the Elliot Waves technical framework, Bitcoin is currently in a larger fifth impulse wave formation. However, this fifth wave, which is generally bullish, has been punctuated by corrective ABC sub-waves, leading Bitcoin to retest the support of the cup-and-handle formation. Now that the support has been met, Bitcoin is in a position to bounce and continue the formation of its fifth impulse wave. This is expected to bring it to the price target above $130,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Crashed To 6-Month Low, Here’s What Followed The Last Time The alignment of the cup-and-handle formation with Elliott wave projections strengthens the case for a major breakout in the coming months. However, Bitcoin’s fundamentals reflect uncertainty in the short term. There is currently a lack of bullish momentum needed to rechallenge the $90,000 mark, which would be the first step needed to reach $130,000. Steady institutional outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs have further increased selling pressure, limiting Bitcoin’s ability to regain strength in the short term. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,500. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has shown resilience by bouncing to its 200-day moving average since last Tuesday when it fell as low as $76,606, yet it remains below this key technical threshold. In this volatile market environment, a major whale has taken a contrarian position by establishing a highly leveraged short on Bitcoin perpetual futures via Hyperliquid. Huge Bitcoin Whale Goes Short According to data from Hyperliquid and blockchain analyst Lookonchain, the whale’s short position is valued at over $445 million and utilizes 40x leverage. This position comes with a liquidation price set at $85,940, and despite the inherent risks, the trader is already reporting an unrealized gain of $4.4 million. Pseudonymous trader CBB (@Cbb0fe) galvanized a group of market participants to target the position. Lookonchain’s report highlights a coordinated effort to force the whale’s hand: “This whale still managed to turn a profit despite being hunted by a team! 11 hours ago, @Cbb0fe publicly formed a team to hunt this whale who shorted BTC with 40x leverage. Just one hour later, the team was in action, driving BTC above $84,690 in a short period,” Lookonchain said on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $10 Million? Experts Predict Explosive Growth By 2035 Notably, the whale was forced to deposit $5 million USDC to increase margin and avoid liquidation. “But the hunt ultimately failed. The whale continued to increase his position to short BTC. Currently, the whale is profiting from closing positions through Twap. His current position is 5,406 BTC ($449M), with an unrealized profit of $4.4M.” the blockchain analytics service added via X. In a series of rapid-fire tweets, CBB further intensified the situation by stating: “The hunt has begun,” adding “If you are willing to hunt this dude with size, drop a DM, setting up a team right now and already got good size.” He later added: “We have lost a battle but we have not lost the war. Locked in.” and “Holy fuck please Eric Trump send help from the divine father to liquidate this mfer.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETF Exodus Continues: $900 Million Outflows Extend Losing Streak Hyperliquid has positioned itself at the forefront of this unfolding drama, emphasizing the platform’s role in providing unmatched transparency in high-leverage trading. In a statement posted on X, Hyperliquid commented: “Hyperliquid has redefined trading. When a whale shorts $450M+ BTC and wants a public audience, it’s only possible on Hyperliquid. […] Anyone can photoshop a PNL screenshot. No one can question a Hyperliquid position, just like no one can question a Bitcoin balance. The decentralized future is here.” Hyperliquid was recently thrust into the spotlight following an incident involving a prominent whale who executed a “liquidation arbitrage.” In that event, the extraction of floating profits led to a margin shortage that triggered forced liquidations, transferring risk to the decentralized exchange’s HLP vault. At press time, BTC traded at $83,455. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
In a new publication titled The Mustard Seed, Joe Burnett—Director of Market Research at Unchained—outlines a thesis that envisions Bitcoin reaching $10 million per coin by 2035. This inaugural quarterly letter takes the long view, focusing on “time arbitrage” as it surveys where Bitcoin, technology, and human civilization could stand a decade from now. Burnett’s argument revolves around two principal transformations that, he contends, are setting the stage for an unprecedented migration of global capital into Bitcoin: (1) the “Great Flow of Capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity, and (2) the “Acceleration of Deflationary Technology” as AI and robotics reshape entire industries. A Long-Term Perspective On Bitcoin Most economic commentary zooms in on the next earnings report or the immediate price volatility. In contrast, The Mustard Seed announces its mission clearly: “Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus.” At the core of Burnett’s outlook is the observation that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function: Gold ($20 trillion): Mined at approximately 2% annually, increasing supply and slowly diluting its scarcity. Real Estate ($300 trillion): Expands at around 2.4% per year due to new development. Equities ($110 trillion): Company profits are constantly eroded by competition and market saturation, contributing to devaluation risk. Fixed Income & Fiat ($230 trillion): Structurally subject to inflation, which reduces purchasing power over time. Burnett describes this phenomenon as capital “searching for a lower potential energy state,” likening the process to water cascading down a waterfall. In his view, all pre-Bitcoin asset classes were effectively “open bounties” for dilution or devaluation. Wealth managers could distribute capital among real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks, but each category carried a mechanism by which its real value could erode. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Peak In? This Data Suggests Otherwise, Analytics Firm Says Enter Bitcoin, with its 21-million-coin hard cap. Burnett sees this digital asset as the first monetary instrument incapable of being diluted or devalued from within. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, can directly translate into price appreciation. He cites Michael Saylor’s “waterfall analogy”: “Capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. Wealth stored in every asset class acted as a market bounty, incentivizing dilution or devaluation.” As soon as Bitcoin became widely recognized, says Burnett, the game changed for capital allocation. Much like discovering an untapped reservoir far below existing water basins, the global wealth supply found a new outlet—one that cannot be augmented or diluted. To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, The Mustard Seed draws a parallel with the halving cycle. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—akin to Niagara Falls at full force. As of today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, reminiscent of halving the Falls’ flow repeatedly until it is significantly reduced. In 2065, Bitcoin’s newly minted supply will be negligible compared to its total volume, mirroring a waterfall reduced to a trickle. Though Burnett concedes that attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption rely on uncertain assumptions, he references two models: the Power Law Model which projects $1.8 million per BTC by 2035 and Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin model which suggests $2.1 million per BTC by 2035. He counters that these projections might be “too conservative” because they often assume diminishing returns. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly. The Acceleration Of Deflationary Technology A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential, per The Mustard Seed, is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant. By 2035, Burnett believes global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions. Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from months to days. The scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines could slash manufacturing costs by 10x. 3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper. Autonomous ride-hailing can potentially reduce fares by 90% by removing labor costs and improving efficiency. Burnett underscores that, under a fiat system, natural deflation is often “artificially suppressed.” Monetary policies—like persistent inflation and stimulus—inflate prices, masking technology’s real impact on lowering costs. Bitcoin, on the other hand, would let deflation “run its course,” increasing purchasing power for holders as goods become more affordable. In his words: “A person holding 0.1 BTC today (~$10,000) could see its purchasing power increase 100x or more by 2035 as goods and services become exponentially cheaper.” To illustrate how supply growth erodes a store of value over time, Burnett revisits gold’s performance since 1970. Gold’s nominal price from $36 per ounce to roughly $2,900 per ounce in 2025 appears substantial, but that price gain was continuously diluted by the annual 2% increase in gold’s overall supply. Over five decades, the global stock of gold almost tripled. If gold’s supply had been static, its price would have hit $8,618 per ounce by 2025, according to Burnett’s calculations. This supply constraint would have bolstered gold’s scarcity, possibly pushing demand and price even higher than $8,618. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaches 12-Year Support Line Against Gold – Is The Bull Run Over? Bitcoin, by contrast, incorporates precisely the fixed supply condition that gold never had. Any new demand will not spur additional coin issuance and thus should drive the price upward more directly. Burnett’s forecast for a $10 million Bitcoin by 2035 would imply a total market cap of $200 trillion. While that figure sounds colossal, he points out that it represents only about 11% of global wealth—assuming global wealth continues to expand at a ~7% annual rate. From this vantage point, allocating around 11% of the world’s assets into what The Mustard Seed calls “the best long-term store of value asset” might not be far-fetched. “Every past store of value has perpetually expanded in supply to meet demand. Bitcoin is the first that cannot.” A key piece of the puzzle is the security budget for Bitcoin: miner revenue. By 2035, Bitcoin’s block subsidy will be down to 0.78125 BTC per block. At $10 million per coin, miners could earn $411 billion in aggregate revenue each year. Since miners sell the Bitcoin they earn to cover costs, the market would have to absorb $411 billion of newly mined BTC annually. Burnett draws a parallel with the global wine market, which was valued at $385 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $528 billion by 2030. If a “mundane” sector like wine can sustain that level of consumer demand, an industry securing the world’s leading digital store of value reaching similar scale, he argues, is well within reason. Despite public perception that Bitcoin is becoming mainstream, Burnett highlights an underreported metric: “The number of people worldwide with $100,000 or more in bitcoin is only 400,000… that’s 0.005% of the global population—just 5 in 100,000 people.” Meanwhile, studies might show around 39% of Americans have some level of “direct or indirect” Bitcoin exposure, but this figure includes any fractional ownership—such as holding shares of Bitcoin-related equities or ETFs through mutual funds and pension plans. Real, substantial adoption remains niche. “If Bitcoin is the best long-term savings technology, we would expect anyone with substantial savings to hold a substantial amount of bitcoin. Yet today, virtually no one does.” Burnett emphasizes that the road to $10 million does not require Bitcoin to supplant all money worldwide—only to “absorb a meaningful percentage of global wealth.” The strategy for forward-looking investors, he contends, is simple but non-trivial: ignore short-term noise, focus on the multi-year horizon, and act before global awareness of Bitcoin’s properties becomes universal. “Those who can see past the short-term volatility and focus on the bigger picture will recognize bitcoin as the most asymmetric and overlooked bet in global markets.” In other words, it is about “front-running the capital migration” while Bitcoin’s user base is still comparatively minuscule and the vast majority of traditional wealth remains in legacy assets. At press time, BTC traded at $83,388. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has shown good signs of recovery over the past few days, briefly returning above the $85,000 level to kickstart the weekend. While BTC’s price has often floundered towards the end of the week in 2025, the premier cryptocurrency would be hoping to have a different journey over the next few days. Is $90,000 The Next Stop For Bitcoin Price? Fortunately, the future seems bright for the world’s largest cryptocurrency after crypto analyst Ali Martinez took to the X platform to share an exciting bullish prognosis for the Bitcoin price. According to the trader, the price of BTC could be on its way to the psychological $90,000 level. Related Reading: Ethereum Consolidates Since ‘The Big Dump’ – Local Trend Reversal Or Continuation? The rationale behind this positive prediction is the appearance of an ascending triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe of the Bitcoin chart. The ascending triangle is a pattern in technical price analysis featuring an inverse right-angled triangle with a horizontal upper boundary (connecting a series of lower highs) and a diagonal rising lower trendline (connecting the swing lows). An ascending triangle formation is usually considered a bullish chart pattern, indicating the continuation of the original upward trend. However, an ascending triangle formation can also serve as a trend reversal pattern and a bearish signal — when the asset’s price breaks down the lower trendline and in the opposite direction of the initial uptrend. As observed in the highlighted chart, the Bitcoin price seems to be breaking out of the triangle pattern through the horizontal upper trendline around $84,000. In his post, Martinez noted that a convincing and sustained close above this level the premier cryptocurrency could make a play for the psychological $90,000 level. The price target for an ascending triangle pattern is determined by adding the vertical distance between the horizontal and rising trendlines to the breakout point. A Bitcoin price leap to $90,000 would represent an almost 7% move from the current price point. As of this writing, the flagship cryptocurrency is valued at around $84,400, reflecting an almost 5% price surge in the past 24 hours. Can Rising Whale Activity Push BTC Price Up? If the Bitcoin price is going to reclaim the $90,000 level, it’s going to need all the buying pressure it can get from investors. Interestingly, the largest class of BTC investors (whales) seem to already be in the party, continuously loading their bags over the past few days. In a separate post on X, Martinez disclosed that whales that own between 1,000 and 10,000 coins have added to their holdings in recent days. Data from Santiment shows this class of whales has acquired 20,000 BTC in the last 24 hours. This high buying activity from Bitcoin whales could offer BTC’s price the necessary bullish impetus to move to $90,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Could Be Mirroring Bitcoin’s 2018-2021 Cycle Amid Record Selling Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s price trajectory has become a significant point of interest in light of the recent downtrend, which has disappointed many bullish traders. According to on-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, the recent price crash up to the current price has seen over 6.5 million BTC addresses falling into losses. Still, technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could experience further drops. The question is whether Bitcoin will test the $70,000 mark before regaining strength or can rebound from here toward a $300,000 price target. Insights from price structure and historical patterns help provide a clearer picture of what’s next. Bitcoin Price Decline: A Normal Cycle Within Uptrends Despite concerns over Bitcoin’s recent price swings, crypto analyst Philip (BasicTradingTV) maintains that the market is behaving normally within a long-term bullish structure. He highlights that on the higher monthly timeframe, Bitcoin continues to create higher highs and higher lows and maintains a solid uptrend that dates back to 2017. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suffers Bearish Deviation After Filling CME Gap, Is This Good Or Bad? This technical outlook, which was noted on the TradingView platform, comes as a response to concerns about whether BTC is still bullish after the ongoing 25% correction from its recent all-time high. Traders have been unsettled following the recent drop, but historical trends suggest this kind of movement is part of the market’s natural cycle. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is still forming a bullish market structure, and while short-term fluctuations may continue, the broader uptrend channel from 2017 is still in place. Furthermore, the analyst noted previous instances of 25% and 40% corrections during Bitcoin’s rallies from the lower trendline of this uptrend channel. What’s Next For BTC? Possible Retest Of Resistance Before Rally To $300,000 With the notion of a long-term uptrend still intact, the analyst noted, however, that Bitcoin could continue its downtrend until it reaches $70,000. This level holds significant importance, as it previously marked Bitcoin’s all-time high before turning into resistance around mid-2024. After multiple attempts, Bitcoin eventually broke through this resistance toward the end of the year, leading to its new all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Action Says Bottom Is In, Analyst Reveals What’s Coming As such, this $70,000 level is now a major psychological support zone, making it a key area to watch amidst the ongoing Bitcoin price correction. From here, the analyst predicted a rebound that would send BTC to reach as high as $300,000. “Levels to watch: 70.000, $300.000,” the analyst said. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,555, having spent the majority of the past 24 hours trading between $79,947 and $83,436. This leaves Bitcoin still about 14% away from testing the $70,000 support level. However, there is also the possibility that BTC may not drop as low as $70,000 before bullish sentiment takes over once again. If Bitcoin continues to follow the trajectory of past cycles, Fibonacci extensions point to price targets between $150,000 and $300,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s tight correlation with global M2 has returned to the spotlight, suggesting that broader monetary conditions remain a key force behind the cryptocurrency’s market trajectory. Recent price action shows Bitcoin converging with M2’s downward drift—mirroring roughly a 70-day lag. This cyclical movement highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing responsiveness to fluctuations in liquidity, even as other fundamental factors, like the newly announced US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), continue to capture headlines. Global M2 Correlation And Bitcoin Market Inefficiency In his latest research note, analyst Joe Consorti underscores that “Bitcoin’s directional correlation with global M2 has tightened again,” indicating that price remains heavily swayed by money supply trends. After a few months of divergence—fueled in part by a strong US dollar—Bitcoin fell to $78,000, coming within $8,000 of M2’s projected path. The global M2 index has softened, partly reflecting the dollar’s robust performance. Despite that drag, Bitcoin appears to be following the general liquidity blueprint it has tracked throughout this cycle, suggesting Bitcoin’s price still hinges on major macro forces like central bank expansions and contractions. “While this relationship isn’t a direct cause-and-effect mechanism, it continues to provide a useful macro framework,” Consorti writes. He added: “The takeaway? Bitcoin remains the ultimate monetary asset in a world where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are perpetually expanding. As global money supply expands, bitcoin tends to follow it, at least directionally. But this cycle is seeing additional variables that make M2 a less reliable standalone indicator, such as the US dollar being historically strong, creating a drag on global M2 denominated in USD, and more accurate measures of money supply and liquidity coming onto the scene.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed? Data Shows 87.5% Chance The Worst Is Over Although macro conditions are exerting familiar pressure, the market’s reaction to the SBR announcement has been perplexing. After the US President Donald Trump formally declared plans to accumulate Bitcoin through a “budget-neutral” mechanism, the price tumbled 8.5% in just under a week. Consorti described the sell-off as “an irrational reaction highlighting major inefficiencies in pricing Bitcoin’s geopolitical importance.” Executive Order 14233 mandates Treasury and Commerce officials to grow America’s BTC holdings—currently at 198,109 BTC—without new taxpayer cost or congressional oversight. This is a stark contrast to previous government-level adoptions, such as El Salvador’s legal tender move, which coincided with a surge in Bitcoin’s price. Consorti attributes the disparity to short-term profit taking and a “sell-the-news” mentality, adding that “the magnitude of the selloff indicates a complete failure to price in the long-term implications.” Despite the SBR-related dip, Bitcoin’s technical signals suggest a possible local bottom forming. The cryptocurrency dipped to $77,000 before bouncing back, filling a low-volume gap in the $76,000–$86,000 range. Buyers seized on the retracement, creating two hammer candlesticks on the weekly chart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse? Hammer candlesticks typically point to a reversal, especially when they appear at cycle-defining support levels. According to Consorti, “Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin forms these patterns at cycle turning points… The last time we saw this exact price structure was during the tail end of Bitcoin’s summer 2024 consolidation, two months before it surged from $57,000 to $108,000.” A notable trend amid these price fluctuations is Bitcoin’s rising dominance, even during periods of market contraction. ETH/BTC recently sank to 0.0227—its lowest since May 2020—indicating intensifying skepticism toward altcoins. Meanwhile, institutional demand for Ethereum has likewise slumped, as evidenced by a 56.8% drop in the asset under management (AUM) ratio for Ethereum vs. Bitcoin. “This cycle belongs to Bitcoin, and all future cycles will only further cement this reality,” Consorti asserts. He suggests altcoins are fighting an uphill battle as Bitcoin-centric narratives gain global traction. At press time, BTC traded at $82,875. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In the ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s market trajectory, two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on X, underscoring the community’s divided sentiment. While one maintains that a drastic downturn remains possible, the other posits that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing a notable 87.5% probability. Bitcoin Bears In Trouble? Crypto analyst Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) posted on X and laid out two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.” He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it:“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse? In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time. “Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.” His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer’s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five “2D bars” before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself. “All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Recovery—Is the Whale Sell-Off Finally Over? He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.” To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as “peaking fear” in the market. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent: “Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are protecting their reputation […] I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has warned that the Bitcoin price risks a further crash. This came as he revealed a critical technical indicator, which has turned bearish for the flagship crypto, although he noted that BTC bulls can still invalidate this current bearish setup. Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish In an X post, Severino indicated that the Bitcoin price could crash further as the S&P 500 monthly LMACD has begun to cross bearish and the histogram has turned red. This development is significant as IntoTheBlock data shows that BTC and the stock market still have a strong positive price correlation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Action Says Bottom Is In, Analyst Reveals What’s Coming The crypto analyst stated that BTC bulls can turn this bearish setup for the Bitcoin price in the next 20 days, as diverging would lead to a bullish setup instead. However, the Bulls’ failure to turn this around for Bitcoin could lead to a massive decline for the flagship crypto, worse than it has already witnessed. Severino stated that a confirmation of this bearish setup at the end of the month could kick off a bear market or Black Swan type event similar to what happened when the last two crossovers occurred. It is worth mentioning that BTC has already crashed to as low as $76,000 recently, sparking concerns that the bear market might already be here. However, crypto experts such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes have suggested that the bull market is still well in play for the Bitcoin price. Hayes noted that BTC has corrected around 30% from its current all-time high (ATH), which he remarked is normal in a bull run. The BitMEX founder predicts that the flagship crypto will rebound once the US Federal Reserve begins to ease its monetary policies. BTC Still Looking Good Despite Recent Crash Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has suggested that the Bitcoin price still looks good despite the recent crash. In his latest market update, he stated that BTC remains the best-looking chart and that everything is going according to plan for the flagship crypto. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin could still come down and test the range between $70,000 and $75,000, which he claims would still be completely fine. Related Reading: Bitcoin 77% Correction To $25,000, Will History Repeat Itself Kevin Capital remarked that the Bitcoin price could remain afloat if it holds a key market structure and the 3-day MACD resets. He added that some decent macro data could help the flagship crypto stay above key support levels. The US CPI data will be released today, which could provide some relief for the market if it shows that inflation is slowing. The analyst is confident that one good inflation report and the FOMC can help turn the tides. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,860, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has maintained its dominance on the altcoin market even amidst the ongoing price corrections. The leading cryptocurrency has been in the spotlight throughout this market cycle, but a technical outlook suggests that it needs to give way. Particularly, a crypto analyst known as Seth on social media platform X pointed to Bitcoin’s dominance relative strength index (RSI) as a crucial factor that must change before Bitcoin and the broader market can kick off another leg upward. Bitcoin Dominance RSI Hits New Level Seth’s latest analysis, shared on social media platform X, highlights a critical observation regarding Bitcoin’s market dominance. He noted that Bitcoin’s monthly dominance RSI recently surged to 70, a level that has never been reached before in Bitcoin’s history. While this might seem like a bullish signal at first glance, the analyst suggests otherwise, warning that the dominance RSI must cool down for the final phase of the bull run to take place. This perspective comes as the crypto market experiences a downturn, leaving investors questioning when the next bullish wave will begin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suffers Bearish Deviation After Filling CME Gap, Is This Good Or Bad? RSI, or relative strength index, tracks the speed and change of price movements and is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. With Bitcoin’s RSI dominance at such an extreme level, even with the recent price decline, it suggests that BTC’s control over the market is at an unsustainable peak, which could slow down the broader market rally. According to Seth, those who fail to grasp this concept do not understand the fundamental mechanics of financial markets, as this principle applies beyond just Bitcoin and altcoins. Given this, the healthiest path forward would be a reduction in Bitcoin’s dominance over the next few weeks, with the analyst projecting a fall to 44% dominance. Why BTC’s RSI Dominance Decline Matters A decline in Bitcoin’s RSI dominance would mean that the market is shifting toward more balanced conditions, allowing capital to flow into altcoins and drive up their prices. Throughout past bull cycles, particularly in 2021, Bitcoin’s rise to a peak was often followed by a surge in altcoin investments, triggering widespread rallies across the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates In Tight Zone: Why A Crash To $84,000 Is Likely This pattern has historically marked the final phase of a bull run, where capital flows away from Bitcoin and into altcoins with a higher potential for short-term gains. Until Bitcoin’s dominance cools off, the altcoin sector may struggle to gain momentum and continue to derail the final phase of the BTC bull run. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $81,500, reflecting a 2.5% decline in the last 24 hours. Market data from CoinMarketCap indicates that Bitcoin’s dominance currently stands at 61.0%, having risen by 0.65% within the same period. This growing dominance suggests that capital remains concentrated in BTC. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
The US President Donald Trump has formally established a strategic Bitcoin reserve last week—an action that has ignited both celebration and concern across the industry. At the heart of this debate is one central question: Will Bitcoin become a geopolitically important global macro asset like gold, or will it remain a niche holding among libertarians, cypherpunks, and speculators? That is the core takeaway from Bitwise’s latest investor memo, authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. Titled “The Only Question That Matters in Bitcoin” and dated March 10, 2025, the memo underscores how the long-term prospects of Bitcoin may hinge on whether governments worldwide—starting with the United States—view it as indispensable enough to keep building strategic reserves. The One Big Question For Bitcoin In the memo, Hougan highlights the striking nature of the US government’s decision, writing: “Fifteen years after Bitcoin was created—a decade and a half of ridicule and skepticism, of people calling it a ‘pet rock’ and ‘rat poison squared’—the US government declared Bitcoin a ‘strategic’ asset that ‘shall not be sold.’” He argues that Bitcoin’s endorsement as a strategic reserve asset signals a historic shift: “It is a historic milestone, which in time will help propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Congratulations to all who believed in this possibility before it was cool.” Related Reading: Michael Saylor’s Strategy Unveils $21 Billion Stock Issuance For Bitcoin Yet, markets have not uniformly welcomed this announcement. While the government’s formal recognition would seem to bolster Bitcoin’s legitimacy, it also disappointed some investors who had expected an immediate influx of new government purchases. Shortly after the reserve news emerged, Bitcoin’s price plummeted 13% from its recent high of over $92,000, dropping below $80,000 for the first time since November 2024. Hougan points to several contributing factors: broader economic worries, an equity market pullback, and, crucially, what he calls a “misunderstanding” of the government’s actual stance. “Despite the historic nature of the declaration, Bitcoin is down sharply in recent days,” he notes in the memo. Investors had apparently hoped for immediate large-scale purchases from the US Treasury. Instead, they learned that the reserve would initially comprise the government’s existing Bitcoin holdings—an estimated 200,000 BTC, worth approximately $16 billion at current prices. Hougan believes the market’s negative reaction is unwarranted, emphasizing that merely retaining those 200,000 Bitcoin instead of selling them—once anticipated under the prior administration—removes a substantial overhang from the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plays Chicken With Central Banks As Dollar Falls, Says Expert Moreover, the new executive order explicitly states: “[T]he Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall develop strategies for acquiring additional Government BTC provided that such strategies are budget neutral and do not impose incremental costs on United States taxpayers.” In his memo, Hougan underscores the significance of the word “shall,” suggesting it indicates a mandate rather than a mere possibility. Above all, Bitwise’s memo insists on a long-term perspective, urging investors to concentrate on what Hougan terms “the only question that matters in Bitcoin.” That question is whether Bitcoin becomes globally important, akin to gold, or whether it remains peripheral. “If Bitcoin does matter globally, here’s my view: It will be a $10-50 trillion asset, implying a 5x-25x return from current prices. If it doesn’t, it’ll be a footnote in history, bouncing around below $150,000, supported only by a small cohort of libertarians, cypherpunks, and speculators. There is no in between. Bitcoin either matters globally or it doesn’t,” Hougan writes. From this vantage point, the US government’s choice to retain (and potentially expand) its Bitcoin holdings represents an enormous signal to other countries. If, as Hougan suggests, nations including Czechia, Russia, China, El Salvador, and India are weighing their own strategic moves in the digital asset space, the US adopting Bitcoin as strategic could spur them to follow suit—especially if they want to front-run any further American acquisitions. While some investors may be disheartened by the immediate lack of massive government buys, Bitwise’s memo remains optimistic in the face of Bitcoin’s recent volatility. Hougan labels the current price dip as an opportunity for those eyeing a longer timeline. “I see one big takeaway. This short-term weakness is a gift,” he concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $80,319. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Since January 31, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant correction, with the leading cryptocurrency plummeting as much as 27.52%. Currently valued around $79,000, Bitcoin’s price is precariously balanced above a crucial support level dubbed as “the magic line,” which is set at $74,000, pivotal in determining the market’s trajectory—bullish or bearish. A Historical Buffer Against Bear Markets In a recent social media post on X (formerly Twitter), market expert Doctor Profit emphasized that “the magic line” placed at $74,000 in his analysis is not just a number but a key indicator of market sentiment. Related Reading: Charts Reveal Cardano Holds Key Support Zone – Staying Above Could ‘Set The Next Move’ According to the expert, this line has historically acted as a buffer against bear market conditions. For instance, during the 2020 market correction, Bitcoin held above this support level until a bear market was confirmed. Doctor Profit asserts, “A massive correction, even 30-50%, does NOT mean a bear market.” This market volatility is exacerbated by fears of a recession, driven in part by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies targeting countries like China, Canada, and Mexico. These actions have ignited concerns over a potential trade war, further dampening investor sentiment and leading to a retreat from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, BTC is not alone in this downtrend. Peers such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), have also followed Bitcoin’s lead in this regard, experiencing 10%, 6%,5% and 6% drops respectively in the 24-hour time frame. Optimal Bitcoin Entry Point Between $52,000 and $60,000? In another recent post on social media platform X, Doctor Profit discussed a possible recession scenario, suggesting that the optimal entry point for investors might be between $52,000 and $60,000. This forecast implies a troubling potential drop of another 34% from $79,000 towards the worst case scenario for BTC’s price at $52,000 if this occurs, heightening concerns among traders and investors alike. Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Strong For Over A Year: Monthly Close Below This Level Could Be Catastrophic Doctor Profit remains vigilant, monitoring not only Bitcoin’s movements but also the stock market’s influence on crypto prices. He has set his sights on a critical short position with a target profit level (TP1) aligning with the magic line. “If Bitcoin bounces hard, I’ll re-enter,” the market expert stated. Doctor Profit concluded his analysis saying that “If it shows weakness, I’ll stay in cash and hunt for lower entries between $50,000 and $60,000.” While finding at least a temporary foothold at the $79,460 mark, the largest digital asset, BTC, is down 14% in the past two weeks, reaching its lowest level since November 2024. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The Libertarian Party of Australia has formally unveiled its new Bitcoin Policy Whitepaper, with a centerpiece proposal advocating for the establishment of an Australian Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). The announcement was made on March 8 during the BitcoinAlive event. The event showcased the Libertarian Party’s vision for integrating Bitcoin into Australia’s financial and regulatory framework. While the party remains relatively small compared to the nation’s two major political contenders, it aims to influence broader debate on crypto policy. This stance places Australia alongside various US states that are working toward legislative recognition of Bitcoin reserves, as well as the US federal government’s announcement last week. Establishing An Australian Strategic Bitcoin Reserve One of the most prominent features of the Whitepaper is the call to create an Australian Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Referring to Bitcoin’s “decentralized and limited-supply nature,” the Libertarian Party states that: “Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins ensures that its scarcity protects against inflation […] This robustness enhances its appeal as a reliable store of value and positions it as an ideal component of Australia’s financial strategy.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Plays Chicken With Central Banks As Dollar Falls, Says Expert The proposal suggests that such a reserve would hedge against inflation, diversify national assets, and “strengthen the nation’s financial resilience.” According to the document, funding would derive from several possible sources, including allocations from Australia’s Future Fund, budget surpluses, and proceeds from government asset sales. Throughout the 23-page White Paper, a repeated theme is that of personal and financial autonomy—concepts foundational to Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos. One recommendation asserts the right to self-custody, arguing that individuals should be able to hold Bitcoin themselves without reliance on central intermediaries. It reads: “The right to self-custody is paramount for achieving true financial sovereignty and privacy in an increasingly digitized economy.” The paper’s authors contend that self-custody protects against “governmental overreach,” referencing past global financial crises that eroded public trust in centralized institutions. Beyond the reserve, the White Paper advocates for comprehensive legal recognition and clearer regulatory standards. It calls for the removal of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on everyday Bitcoin transactions and outlines a vision in which Australia “positions itself at the forefront of global innovation in financial services.” To that end, the document also proposes: “Treating Bitcoin as a legitimate and viable alternative to traditional financial systems, promoting financial autonomy and inclusivity.” Related Reading: This Bitcoin Signal Aligns With Price Tops, CryptoQuant Analyst Reveals Such moves, the party believes, will encourage further Bitcoin adoption by eliminating “punitive taxation measures” that hamper everyday transactions. Additionally, the White Paper highlights how countries like Germany, Portugal, and Japan have already taken steps to clarify taxation and legal status for Bitcoin users and businesses. Another point of emphasis is fair treatment of Bitcoin mining. Recognizing mounting concerns about energy usage, the policy encourages the integration of mining with renewable or “stranded” energy sources to stabilize power grids and reduce environmental impact: “Bitcoin mining should not be subject to regulations that disproportionately affect the industry. Any regulatory measures must be technology-neutral and focused on broader market stability, grid integrity, and environmental standards.” According to the Libertarian Party, these approaches can help Australia avoid the pitfalls seen in other jurisdictions—such as China, where an outright mining ban led to significant industry disruption. Reactions to the Libertarian Party’s announcement have been mixed. An Australian Bitcoiner remarked: “As an Australian the Libertarian Party is relatively new outside the big two party’s, they won’t get double digits of the vote when the election is finally held. The two majors have no BTC policy that I know of & we really are a backwards country—I won’t hold my breath for any either.” Thus, no immediate impact on the BTC price can be expected. At press time, BTC faced further downward pressure and traded at $79,101. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of Strategy (formerly Microstrategy), is intensifying efforts to acquire Bitcoin (BTC) by tapping into capital markets, announcing plans to issue up to $21 billion in preferred stock. Strategy Plans Major Sale Of Preferred Shares According to Bloomberg, the new offering will consist of 8% series A perpetual-strike preferred shares, which are convertible into class A common stock. The company plans to sell these shares through an “at the market offering” program, allowing for flexibility in timing and pricing. This approach builds on a previous successful effort in January, when Strategy raised $563 million by issuing preferred shares priced at $80 each, which were offered at a discount to their market value. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash? Analyst Predicts Drop To $0.12 Before Rebound Preferred stocks are unique hybrid securities that combine features of both equity and debt, offering investors a fixed dividend while providing a claim on company assets. The favorable terms of the January deal reportedly attracted significant investor interest, contributing to a strong performance of the newly issued shares. Since late October, Strategy has been actively acquiring Bitcoin, and the latest capital raise is part of a broader strategy to secure $42 billion over the next few years through various securities offerings. This includes a focus on selling fixed-income securities while managing common stock sales to fund additional BTC purchases. Currently, the firm holds approximately 499,096 Bitcoin, valued at around $42 billion. Shares Drop 10% Amid Bitcoin Crash Despite this purchase plan, Strategy reported that it did not purchase any Bitcoin between March 3 and March 9, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This pause comes amid a fluctuating cryptocurrency market, where the market’s leading crypto, BTC, recently trades at $79,000 down 4.5% for the day and approximately 18% on the monthly time frame. The preferred stock market has seen varied performance; while the shares climbed 18% from their initial pricing, they faced a decline of over 6% in a recent trading session as the supply increased. Related Reading: Cardano Bulls Eye $10 Target – Analyst Reveals Key Levels To Break Despite this fluctuation, the preferred shares have outperformed common stock and Bitcoin over the same period, suggesting a robust demand from investors. As seen in the daily chart below, shares of Strategy (MSTR), also experienced a drop of around 15% to $238 on Monday, reflecting broader market trends that have seen the company’s stock down approximately 10% this year. In contrast, shares have surged over 2,200% since Saylor began investing in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge in 2020, while Bitcoin itself has risen over 600%. The announcement of Strategy’s plans coincided with recent developments from the US government. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic US Bitcoin reserve, which will be funded through cryptocurrencies forfeited in legal proceedings. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
RLinda, a TradingView crypto analyst who predicted Bitcoin’s previous crash from $91,000, has shared another bearish forecast for the pioneer cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, more pain may be on the horizon for Bitcoin, as it is expected to plummet as low as $73,000. Bitcoin is currently struggling to maintain its former momentum as bearish factors dominate the market. According to RLinda, the cryptocurrency has entered a sell zone after failing to hold above the buying zone above $91,000, thus initiating a false resistance breakdown. Given its current bearish position, the analyst predicts a major crash to new lows for Bitcoin, anticipating an 11% decline to $73,000 soon. Bitcoin Price Set To Crash To $73,000 RLinda revealed that the market’s volatility was partially attributed to Donald Trump’s comments on the Federal Reserve. The market reacted to the US President’s statements with a global shake-up, causing liquidations across the crypto space. Related Reading: Bitcoin 9-Month Cycle Says It’s Not Over, Analyst Shows Where We Are In The Bull Run Additionally, the crypto summit, which was expected to spark bullish sentiment, did little to boost prices. Instead, it prevented the market from turning green. This market downturn has led to profit-taking by investors due to the lack of market and manipulation by big players. Based on the analyst’s price chart, Bitcoin is trading within the $90,000 – $82,000 range. The cryptocurrency dropped to this price after experiencing a slight price pump in late February. Following this increase, Bitcoin lost all of its gains and has since been aiming for a recovery. RLinda warns that if Bitcoin breaks below the $82,000 support level, it could experience a significant price breakdown towards $78,000 – $73,000. The TradingView analyst has highlighted $73,000 as the primary crash target, citing that Bitcoin is currently in a deep correction phase. With global growth temporarily suspended, RLinda revealed that the market is in dire need of liquidity. The analyst indicated that if the market’s growth relies too much on bullish leverage and new buyers without proper correction, it may become unstable. A correction phase, like the one Bitcoin is currently experiencing, may allow liquidity to reset and prepare the market for future upward movements. BTC Key Resistance And Support Zones RLinda has pinpointed key resistance and support levels for the Bitcoin price, sharing insights into potential reversal points. The TradingView analyst asserts that the price zone with the most interest and liquidity is $73,000 – $66,000. Related Reading: Legendary Analyst Peter Brandt Lists 6 Reasons Bitcoin Has Flipped Bullish While a breakdown to $66,000 may seem like a steep decline, it could serve as a critical area for market stabilization. Moreover, further bearish movements would be confirmed if Bitcoin drops below $82,000. Currently, the resistance levels to watch are $89,400, $91,000, and $93,000. Conversely, the support areas to take note of are $82,000, $78,000, and $73,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price endured another bout of volatility over the weekend, shedding 5% on Sunday to dip below the $80,000 mark, before settling near $82,000. This latest decline places the cryptocurrency roughly 25% below its all-time high of $109,900. Analysts attribute the downturn to ongoing trade tensions—linked to President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures—and the fears of a looming recession. Meanwhile, a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen from 110 to 103 since mid-January, coinciding with Trump’s second term in office and could be a potential bullish catalyst for the Bitcoin price. In a series of posts on X, Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, offers a look at the current market environment, highlighting two key metrics that could shape central bank policy—and, by extension, Bitcoin’s trajectory. “Bitcoin is like playing a game of Chicken with central banks,” Coutts writes. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Signal Aligns With Price Tops, CryptoQuant Analyst Reveals He explained that while the dollar’s recent decline supports a bullish framework for Bitcoin, rising Treasury bond volatility (tracked by the MOVE Index) and widening corporate bond spreads are causing concern: Coutts emphasized the role of US Treasuries as the global collateral asset. Any spike in their volatility, he argued, forces lenders to impose larger haircuts on collateral, tightening liquidity. “Rising volatility forces lenders to apply haircuts on collateral, thereby tightening liquidity. […] Above 110 [on the MOVE Index] and I suspect there will be a few concerns at the central planner levels.” Over the past three weeks, US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been widening, a shift Coutts views as a signal that risk assets—including Bitcoin—could face pressure: “This suggests that the demand keeping yields compressed relative to Treasuries is fading—and further widening could be negative for risk assets.” Despite these cautionary flags, Coutts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects, primarily due to the dollar’s “rapid decline.” He noted that the dollar’s drop in March—one of the most significant monthly dips in 12 years—historically has coincided with bullish inflection points in Bitcoin’s price. According to his research, “They have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).” Related Reading: If This Happens, Bitcoin Price Will Shoot To $140,000, Says Analyst While acknowledging the limited historical dataset for Bitcoin, Coutts also cited key catalysts he believes could propel the digital asset higher: Nation-State Adoption: “A global nation-state race is underway,” Coutts wrote, describing a scenario in which countries either include Bitcoin in their strategic reserves or ramp up mining efforts. Corporate Accumulation: He points to the possibility of companies—particularly Strategy (MSTR)—adding 100,000 to 200,000 BTC this year. ETF Positions: Exchange-traded funds may “double their positions,” further driving institutional inflows. Liquidity Dynamics: In Coutts’s words, “The Spice Must Flow.” Coutts also mentioned that Bitcoin appears to be “filling a big gap” and reiterated his view that a slide below the high-$70,000 range would signal a fundamental market shift. Meanwhile, he sees central bankers edging closer to possible intervention as Treasury volatility and credit spreads climb: “If Treasury volatility and bond spreads keep rising, asset prices will continue their decline. Meanwhile, this will likely push the central planners to act.” In closing, Coutts offered a concise summary of why he believes Bitcoin is effectively locked in a showdown with central banks: “Think of Bitcoin as a high-stakes game of chicken with the central planners. With their options dwindling—and assuming HODLers remain unleveraged—the odds are increasingly in the Bitcoin owner’s favor.” For now, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be treading a line between macroeconomic headwinds—highlighted by a volatile bond market—and the tailwinds of a weakening dollar. Whether Bitcoin continues to retreat or resumes its long-term ascent will likely depend on how global policymakers respond to mounting bond market pressures—and whether holders are prepared to keep playing “chicken” with the central planners. At press time, BTC traded at $82,091. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com