THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

In a move that could signal a bullish shift for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, bringing the new rate range to 3.5% to 3.75%.  Bitcoin Poised To Surge Toward $100,000? Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser and a leading candidate to become the next Fed chair, commented to the Wall Street Journal CEO Council that there is “plenty of room” for additional interest rate cuts.  He stated, “If the data suggests that we could do it, then — like right now, I think there’s plenty of room to do it.” Hassett, who is President Donald Trump’s preferred choice for the Fed chair position after Jerome Powell’s tenure concludes, has been critical of Powell for being “too late” in lowering rates. Related Reading: Crypto Market Structure Talks: Senator Lummis Addresses Latest Legislation Plans While the last rate cut in October had minimal impact on the Bitcoin price, analyst Michael van de Poppe believes that the current rate cut could significantly benefit the cryptocurrency. He characterized it as a “great move” for Bitcoin and noted that a breakout above $92,000 might be indicative of future bullish momentum.  Van de Poppe expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the support level between $91,500 and $92,000, suggesting that if it does, there could be a pathway for Bitcoin to approach the $100,000 mark. Can BTC Avoid Historical 10% Decline? Market expert Ash Crypto pointed out that historically, each of the last four times the Fed slashed rates by 25 bps, Bitcoin experienced a 5% to 10% decline shortly thereafter. Despite this pattern, Ash noted that the current market setup differs from previous scenarios, suggesting that different dynamics could be at play. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Climbs Toward $3,300 For The First Time Since November: What’s Driving The Surge? Several positive factors underpinning this optimism include the conclusion of quantitative tightening (QT) after a three-year period. Should Powell hint at the possibility of quantitative easing (QE) in his forthcoming remarks, it could spur a further bullish trend in the market.  Additionally, with this being the third rate cut, Ash asserted that there is potential for increased liquidity to flow back into the markets, which historically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst Bull Theory has explained why the Bitcoin price has been crashing recently. The analyst pointed out that Wall Street traders were responsible for the price declines, indicating that these trading desks were manipulating the market for their own benefit.   Analyst Explains Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing In an X post, Bull Theory blamed Jane Street for the Bitcoin price’s constant crash at 10 a.m. ET when the U.S. market opens. The analyst pointed out that BTC erased 16 hours of gains in just 20 minutes after the U.S. market opened. This has notably been happening since early November, when the flagship crypto fell below $100,000. Meanwhile, a similar price action also played out in the second and third quarters of this year.  Related Reading: Confirming The Bitcoin Price Direction: Analyst Reveals What You Should Look Out For Bull Theory noted that another analyst, Zerohedge, has claimed that Jane Street is most likely the entity responsible for this Bitcoin price crash. The analyst stated that the chart shows a pattern that is too consistent to ignore, with a clean wipeout within an hour of the market opening, followed by a slow recovery. He added that this is classic high-frequency execution and that it fits Jane Street’s profile.  Bull Theory stated that Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading firms in the world and that they have the speed and liquidity to move markets for a few minutes. The analyst claimed that their behavior is simple: dump BTC at the market open, push the Bitcoin price into liquidity pockets, and then re-enter at a lower price.  By doing this, the analyst claimed that Jane Street has accumulated billions in BTC. The trading firm is said to hold $2.5 billion worth of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, which is its 5th-largest position. Bull Theory added that this means most of the dump in the Bitcoin price isn’t due to macro weakness but manipulation by this entity. He expects that BTC will continue its upward momentum once these big players are done buying.  Bitcoin At Risk Of A Decline Post-FOMC Crypto analyst Ali Martinez indicated that the Bitcoin price was at risk of a significant decline following today’s FOMC meeting. He pointed out that BTC has consistently reacted negatively to FOMC meetings, with six out of seven meetings this year leading to corrections for the flagship crypto.  Related Reading: Bitcoin RSI Shows Shocking Similarities To 2012-2015, But What Happened Last Time? The Bitcoin price had rallied to as high as $94,500 yesterday in anticipation of a third rate cut this year from the Fed. According to CME FedWatch, there is currently a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points (bps). A CryptoQuant report noted how these rate cuts have turned out to be a ‘sell the news’ event on the two occasions the Fed lowered rates this year, with the probability of this price action playing out again.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $92,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support. How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies.  Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious. CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price. On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Settles In Consolidation Zone – Levels To Watch Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

When Strategy disclosed its acquisition of more than 10,000 Bitcoin worth $1 billion, market watchers anticipated an immediate rally. Instead, Bitcoin’s price barely moved. The muted response was not a reflection of weak demand but the result of how the purchase was executed. In response to the confusion surrounding the stagnant price action, Quinten Francois explained the mechanics behind the transaction, clarifying why such a large buy left no visible impact on the chart. The Invisible Plumbing Behind Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation On 9 December 2025, Andrew Tate questioned why a massive 10,000 BTC buy failed to nudge the market. The answer, as analyst Francois explained, lies in the operational backbone of over-the-counter (OTC) desks—an ecosystem designed to absorb billion-dollar flows while keeping price action stable. These desks operate entirely outside exchanges. When a firm wants thousands of BTC, nothing is executed against the real-time order book. Instead, OTC operators start sourcing supply quietly from large holders looking to offload position size. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Set To Surge As Sellers Show Signs Of Exhaustion This pipeline includes deep private liquidity that retail traders never see: miners selling block rewards, VCs rotating out of token allocations, market makers rebalancing inventory, and even corporate treasuries restructuring reserves. None of these trades appear on exchange feeds. According to Francois, they do not trigger volatility, sweep liquidity pools, or create the upward pressure that retail investors typically expect from large buys. More critically, Francois notes that these transactions do not occur in a single block. A 5,000–10,000 BTC order is never filled all at once. Instead, OTC desks spread procurement over days or even weeks, accumulating inventory piece by piece. Only when enough matched supply is gathered do they finalize the transaction, resulting in a smooth settlement with no visible footprint on price charts. Why No Price Rally Emerges From Shadow-Side Demand Shadow-side demand refers to large-scale institutional buying that occurs entirely outside public exchanges. These hidden transactions do not trigger price rallies because OTC infrastructure is designed to prevent slippage, volatility, and market distortion. Institutions acquiring strategic size deliberately avoid pushing prices higher, while liquidity providers are incentivized to maintain stability. By keeping trades off public exchanges, both sides protect execution quality and preserve overall market integrity. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights The Condition That Will Trigger A 2,300% XRP Rally To $50 A rally only emerges when open-market demand exceeds visible liquidity. In this case, the demand never hit the open market. OTC desks tap private channels first and only touch exchanges if supply dries up—and that is considered a last resort. If enough sellers are found privately, no exchange-side buying occurs at all. This is why public charts often show sell pressure but rarely show institutional demand. The buys happen in the shadows, the sells appear on-chain, and the price remains anchored. Strategy’s $1 billion allocation did not fail to move the market; it was intentionally engineered not to. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the last few days, the Bitcoin price has fluctuated, but the most prominent moves have been upwards, going from below $90,000 to over $94,000. As expected, this rapid climb already has investors calling for a return of the bull run, but not everyone is convinced. For some, the current Bitcoin price momentum is most likely a bull trap, and crypto analyst Xanrox highlights this in a recent analysis, outlining the best level to start selling the digital asset. Why The Bitcoin Price Risks A Crash To $74,000 Xanrox’s analysis focuses on the bearish formations that have appeared on the Bitcoin price crash following the recent upward move. While many in the crypto community celebrate the rise above $90,000 again, the crypto analyst sounds an alarm that this is the time to go bearish on the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Why The Litecoin Price Could Stage A 33% Rally To $110 According to the analysis shared on the TradingView website, there has been a clear bear flag formation for the cryptocurrency. This bearish formation is visible on both the 12-hour chart and the 1-Day chart. Regardless, both of these charts point to one possible outcome, and that is an almost perfect textbook bear flag formation. In addition to the bear flag formation, Xanrox also highlights that there is a WXY corrective pattern inside the bear flag. Both of these point to a possible continuation to the initial downtrend that began after the Bitcoin price hit $126,000 back in October. As for how far the current rally could go, the crypto analyst sees it reaching as high as $96,000 before momentum runs out. This presents the “perfect” time to sell or enter a short as the price continues its decline. The target for this is an over 25% crash that will send the price going toward $74,000. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Volume Explosion: Leading Meme Coin Barrels Ahead In This Metric The $74,000 target makes an appearance as it is a swing low from April 2024, meaning that crypto traders who are long on the digital asset would have their stop losses below it. Thus, this makes it an attractive point for market makers to push the price towards in order to clear significant liquidity. The timeframe for this to play out is placed over the next few weeks, riding out the end of 2025 and moving into January 2026. However, the swing low support at $74,000, if it holds up, could end up serving as the next bounce-off point for the Bitcoin price. Featured image from Pngtree 42, chart from TradingView.com

Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its famously bullish Bitcoin roadmap, cutting its 2026 price target in half and acknowledging that its previous near-term projections were too aggressive, even as it keeps an ultra-optimistic long-term view intact. Standard Chartered Downgrades Bitcoin Price Predictions In a note shared on X by VanEck head of research Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered argues that Bitcoin’s traditional halving cycle has been overtaken by ETF-driven flows. The bank writes: “With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) – i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter – is no longer valid, in our view.” The report adds that it will “take a break of the current all-time high ($ 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026.” Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal Alongside that shift in framework, the bank re-profiled its multi-year Bitcoin targets. According to the figures shared by Sigel, Standard Chartered has lowered its 2025 forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, its 2026 target from $300,000 to $150,000, its 2027 projection from $400,000 to $225,000, its 2028 estimate from $500,000 to $300,000, and its 2029 prediction from $500,000 to $400,000 while keeping a $500,000 target for 2030. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, characterises the recent drawdown as painful but not structural. He describes the current phase as “a cold breeze,” explicitly rejecting the notion of a new crypto winter and noting that the magnitude of the pullback remains consistent with corrections seen in past bull cycles. At the same time, he points out that weaker valuations for listed Bitcoin treasury companies have curtailed their ability to act as major marginal buyers, leaving spot ETFs as the primary driver of near-term gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $50 Million By 2041, Says EMJ Capital CEO Wall Street Giant Bernstein Agrees The downgrade also lands in the context of a broader rethink on Wall Street. One day earlier, on December 8, Sigel shared a separate note from Bernstein that reached a similar conclusion about Bitcoin’s market structure. Bernstein wrote that “the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.” Despite an approximately 30% correction, the firm notes that “we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs.” On that basis, Bernstein now moves its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, sees the cycle “potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000,” and keeps its long-term 2033 target at roughly $1,000,000 per BTC. Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein are converging on the same structural message: the halving alone no longer explains Bitcoin’s trajectory. ETF flows, institutional positioning and balance-sheet dynamics are now the core variables, even if their precise price targets and timelines diverge. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,686. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

During what many anticipated would be the year of a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, market expert Axel Adler has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency finds itself at the midpoint of a bear cycle.  A Mild Bear Cycle Compared To History As of now, Bitcoin has recorded a modest year-to-date decline of 4%. However, the cryptocurrency has shown some stability this week, consolidating in the range of $89,000 to $94,000, with the latter figure serving as immediate resistance.  According to Adler, this current correction, which stands at approximately -32%, is considered less severe compared to previous bear cycles. He emphasizes that approximately 88% of Bitcoin holdings remain in unrealized profit, while only about 12% of the total supply is currently at a loss. Adler points out that Bitcoin’s price action has remained relatively steady within the $90,000 zone, reflecting a mild drawdown in historical context.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Volume Explosion: Leading Meme Coin Barrels Ahead In This Metric The crucial question as the year approaches its end is whether this correction will stabilize between -35% and -40% from its all-time high, indicating a new, more “flattened” cycle, or if the market will follow historical trends that typically lead to deeper declines of -60% to -70%. Analyzing past cycles, Adler notes that major bear markets in 2011, 2016, 2019, and 2023 were characterized by a significant increase in the percentage of coins at a loss, often rising to around 60%. These levels typically marked capitulation points in the market.  In contrast, the current landscape shows only 12% of holders experiencing unrealized losses, which diverges sharply from the patterns observed during past bear markets. Can Bitcoin Avoid Deeper Declines? The expert further noted that during recent local cycle peaks, only about 17% of coins were in the red, a figure that remains three to four times lower than traditional capitulation levels.  This unusual configuration suggests that the current market may resemble a correction within a bullish supercycle rather than the final downturn of a full-blown bear market. Adler believes that the market appears to be testing the resilience of this correction structure, which stands at -32% from its peak, while maintaining a high ratio of profitable positions.  Related Reading: Pundit Highlights The Condition That Will Trigger A 2,300% XRP Rally To $50 He argues that if Bitcoin can sustain this maximum drawdown above the -35% zone alongside moderate unrealized losses, it could bolster the case for a shift towards more “flat” corrections influenced by institutional demand and a structural supply deficit. On the contrary, should Bitcoin’s correction extend beyond the -40% mark, the likelihood of entering a classic bear market increases significantly. Such a scenario would pave the way for deeper declines, potentially reaching the -60% to -70% range, and could trigger a full capitulation phase in terms of unrealized loss metrics. At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $93,000, marking gains of 5% and nearly 9% in the 24-hour and 14-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is currently holding steady, trading water around the critical $90,000 level as the market enters a period of high compression. With ETF inflows slowing down, the price lacks the momentum to break through overhead resistance. The highly anticipated FOMC meeting is expected to provide the necessary catalyst to end the current consolidation and dictate Bitcoin’s next major directional move. BTC Compression Intensifies: Scaling Back Intraday Scalps According to a recent update from Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin continues to tighten within a compression phase. The market has been trading in an increasingly narrow range, signaling that a larger move is approaching. Snyder noted that the scalp long and short setups from his previous analysis played out well. Related Reading: Bitcoin RSI Shows Shocking Similarities To 2012-2015, But What Happened Last Time? He explained that as compression increases, the reward-to-risk ratio naturally declines. While the trades were profitable, they still fell into the category of “C-setups,” meaning they lacked the cleaner momentum and clarity found at range boundaries. Snyder emphasized that the best trading opportunities always emerge at the edges of a range. With the current setup, his focus remains on the key resistance area around $94,000. A breakout above that level could offer long opportunities, while a failure there may open the door for shorts. On the downside, if price sweeps the lows and returns to the $87,400 support region, long entries are likely following signs of reversal. However, he added that if Bitcoin fails to show strength during this phase, he is not eager to take new long positions. A deeper retest of the $83,200 zone could become the next area of interest, though he expects any move toward that level to come with a liquidity sweep.  Snyder also mentioned that he remains in shorts as a hedge, with scalp shorts still acceptable for traders who understand the increased risk at this stage. He concluded by highlighting the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting, noting that the market is likely to stay muted until then. Upcoming FOMC Meeting Dictates Bitcoin’s Next Major Move Analyst Ted, in a recent update, revealed that BTC is currently in a state of consolidation around the $90,000 level. This tight range-bound movement suggests that while selling pressure is not dominant, buyers are also struggling to push the price higher aggressively. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Records 21% Crash In November Trading Volume – What This Means For Price Ted attributed the market’s current stagnation and its inability to break above major resistance levels to a slowdown in institutional investment. Specifically, he noted that recent ETF inflows have slowed down, removing a major source of directional buying pressure that typically drives breakouts. Furthermore, the analyst highlighted that a critical macroeconomic event is pending: the FOMC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, and the market’s next significant directional move will be heavily dependent on the outcome. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Since Bitcoin’s launch, the number of addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC has climbed steadily through every market cycle, until now. Data shows that addresses in this cohort haven’t grown at all over the past two years, breaking a trend that held for more than a decade.  The stagnation indicates a change in how smaller and mid-sized investors engage with Bitcoin, even as broader institutional activity in the market continues to rise. Small Holder Participation Reaches A Standstill The 0.1 BTC threshold has historically represented an important milestone for retail holders, large enough to signal commitment but small enough to remain widely attainable. For more than a decade, wallets crossing that line grew year after year, even during drawdowns when long-term buyers were accumulating quietly. Related Reading: The $13.5 Billion Liquidity Injection That Could Send Bitcoin And Crypto Prices Flying That pattern is no longer intact. The number of addresses with more than 0.1 BTC has flattened since 2023 and is showing no signs of returning to its previous trajectory. Particularly, data from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment shows that the number of these addresses has stalled at around 4.44 million for the past year. This suggests that fewer new participants are choosing to build self-custodied Bitcoin positions at this level. The stagnation becomes more notable considering Bitcoin’s rising mainstream visibility and repeated pushes toward new all-time highs this year. In earlier cycles, such conditions have led to a surge in retail accumulation. This time, the address count has stayed frozen, and this means retail addresses holding Bitcoin might actually be plateauing.  How Bitcoin’s Holder Base Is Changing Although on-chain data points to a slowdown in the growth of overall Bitcoin addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC, it doesn’t necessarily signal a decline in overall adoption. For many market participants, Bitcoin exposure now happens entirely off-chain. Related Reading: Confirming The Bitcoin Price Direction: Analyst Reveals What You Should Look Out For Larger investor cohorts, from high-net-worth individuals to funds and corporate entities, are buying huge amounts of Bitcoin. For instance, Santiment data shows that large Bitcoin holders controlling more than 100 BTC have increased their balances throughout 2024 and 2025, even as smaller address cohorts have stalled. At the same time, more investors are choosing to access Bitcoin through custodial avenues instead of managing their own wallets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the most important gateways for new BTC exposure. In the US alone, Spot Bitcoin ETFs now control almost $120 billion worth of Bitcoin, with BlackRock’s IBIT consistently recording the strongest demand.  Together, these developments point to a new phase in Bitcoin’s development. What was once dominated by individual self-custodied users is now increasingly shaped by institutions, ETFs, funds, and professionally managed capital. Therefore, the numbers from on-chain wallet metrics reflect a smaller portion of the actual user base. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Wall Street research firm Bernstein has reiterated one of the boldest long-term calls in traditional finance, confirming a $1 million Bitcoin price target for 2033 while materially revising how and when it expects the market to get there. Bernstein Keeps $1 Million Price Target For Bitcoin The latest shift surfaced after Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, shared an excerpt from a new Bernstein note on X. In it, the analysts write: “In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.” The analyst from Bernstein added: “Despite a ~30% Bitcoin correction, we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs. We are moving our 2026E Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000. Our long term 2033E Bitcoin price target remains ~$1,000,000.” Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 This marks a clear evolution from Bernstein’s earlier cycle roadmap. In mid-2024, when the firm first laid out the $1 million-by-2033 thesis as part of its initiation on MicroStrategy, it projected a “cycle-high” of around $200,000 by 2025, up from an already-optimistic $150,000 target, explicitly driven by strong US spot ETF inflows and constrained supply. Subsequent commentary reiterated that path and framed Bitcoin firmly within the traditional four-year halving rhythm: ETF demand would supercharge, but not fundamentally alter, the classic post-halving boom-and-bust pattern. Reality forced an adjustment. Bitcoin did break to new highs on the back of ETF demand, validating Bernstein’s structural call that regulated spot products would be a decisive catalyst. However, price action has fallen short of the earlier timing: the market topped out in the mid-$120,000s rather than the $200,000 band originally envisaged for 2025, and a roughly 30% drawdown followed. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $50 Million By 2041, Says EMJ Capital CEO What changed is not the end-state, but the path. Bernstein now argues that the four-year template has been superseded by a longer, ETF-anchored bull cycle. The critical datapoint underpinning this view is behavior in the recent correction: despite a near one-third price decline, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen only about 5% net outflows, which the firm interprets as evidence of “sticky” institutional capital rather than the reflexive retail capitulation that defined previous tops. In the new framework, earlier targets are effectively rescheduled rather than abandoned. The mid-2020s six-figure region is shifted out by roughly one to two years, with $150,000 now penciled in for 2026 and a potential cycle peak near $200,000 in 2027, while the 2033 $1 million objective is left unchanged. In that sense, Bernstein’s track record is mixed but internally consistent. The firm has been directionally right on the drivers—ETF adoption, institutionalization, and supply absorption—but too aggressive on the speed at which those forces would translate into price. The latest note formalizes that recognition: same destination, slower ascent, and a Bitcoin market that Bernstein now sees as governed less by halvings and more by the behavior of large, ETF-mediated capital pools over the rest of the decade. At press time, BTC traded at $90,319. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Twenty One Capital, a major player in the Bitcoin (BTC) treasury sector founded by Jack Mallers, is on the verge of going public in the United States. However, ahead of its highly anticipated debut on December 9, the company has moved a substantial sum of 43,500 BTC—approximately worth $4.5 billion—into an escrow wallet.  This move has sparked market concerns about a potential sell-off, which could create major selling pressure for the leading cryptocurrency as it attempts to consolidate above the key $90,000 support level.   $1.5 Billion Loss In Bitcoin Investments Experts on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), such as OxNobler, have pointed out that the company is currently grappling with a significant $1.5 billion loss on its Bitcoin investment.  He warned that this financial pressure could potentially lead to a new crash for Bitcoin and adversely affect the broader cryptocurrency market as well.  Related Reading: Here’s How High The Dogecoin Price Will Go Once The MACD Bullish Cross Happens The apprehension surrounding this situation is reflected in Bitcoin’s price action, as the leading cryptocurrency dipped below $90,000 earlier on Monday amid growing uncertainty about its future trajectory. However, Jack Mallers had previously addressed the reasoning behind this monumental Bitcoin transfer. According to him, this step is part of the preparations for Twenty One Capital’s upcoming listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).  As part of the transaction, the company is transitioning 43,500 BTC from third-party custody to a self-custody account, ensuring transparency by updating its proof of reserves accordingly. The firm, backed by major players like Tether and SoftBank, aims to take on Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin proxy firm Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) in the competitive Bitcoin treasury sector.  A significant milestone was reached on December 3, when shareholders of CEP approved a business merger with Twenty One Capital, paving the way for the company’s initial public offering (IPO). Once the transactions are finalized, the combined entity will operate as Twenty One Capital, Inc., with its shares expected to begin trading on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “XXI.”  Twenty One Capital Gears Up For IPO Amid the preparations for its anticipated debut in the US, the firm has indicated that it will focus exclusively on Bitcoin-related ventures, offering shareholders new opportunities to gain exposure to BTC through equity markets.  With a Bitcoin-native operating framework and a long-term strategy designed for value creation, Twenty One intends to establish itself as a leading platform for capital-efficient Bitcoin accumulation and related business initiatives. Related Reading: Analysts Split on XRP Future Outlook as Centralization Debate Intensifies This move to go public follows a tumultuous period for Mallers, who disclosed that JPMorgan Chase had abruptly closed his accounts in September without explanation.  “Last month, J.P. Morgan Chase threw me out of the bank… Whenever I asked them why, I received the same response: ‘We aren’t allowed to tell you,’” Mallers recounted on November 23. The closure letter cited “concerning activity” and referenced the Bank Secrecy Act, preventing him from reopening accounts at the bank. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility throughout the year, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs) before enduring sharp corrections of up to 30%, the cryptocurrency community has become increasingly polarized regarding its future direction.  Many analysts are raising concerns about a potential bear market emerging in 2026; however, market expert Shanaka Anslem has offered a different perspective on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), questioning whether 2025 has already represented the real bear market. A Sign Of Cycle Change In his analysis, Anslem highlights key evidence. For the first time in history, Bitcoin breached its all-time high prior to the Halving event in April of this year, which he argues isn’t a bullish signal but rather an indication of the cycle inverting.  According to him, 2024 should not be viewed as the beginning of a new bull run; instead, it was a period of what he calls “political repricing” as the market factored in a pro-crypto administration with President Donald Trump’s reelection.  Related Reading: Here’s How High The Dogecoin Price Will Go Once The MACD Bullish Cross Happens The characteristics of a bear market have been evident in 2025, according to Anslem. Bitcoin’s dominance has reached multi-year highs while altcoins continue to struggle, leading to quarter-after-quarter declines in their values.  Additionally, a massive $3.5 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows occurred within just one month. This year saw a significant 29% drawdown from its October highs, paired with extreme fear readings on various sentiment indices. Anslem insists that while the four-year Halving cycle remains relevant, its impact has evolved. With $120 billion in ETF interconnected with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity, the Halving continues to dictate BTC’s supply, but demand now aligns with broader economic narratives rather than the more crypto-specific factors. Major Bitcoin Rally Ahead?  What does Anslem’s “cycle inversion” theory implies for 2026? If the bear market has already transpired, masked by nominal highs, the next logical phase might be a genuine blow-off top.  His predictions suggest Bitcoin’s price could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000, particularly as global liquidity continues to expand and directs capital toward hard assets. Anslem believes that many in the market are currently positioned for a downturn that has already occurred. However, dissenting opinions exist. Analyst Mr. Wall Street argues that the bottom for Bitcoin has not yet arrived and won’t be realized in the coming weeks or months.  Related Reading: Here’s When The Altcoin Season Happens Following The Bitcoin Cycle He highlights that the critical support level has been breached, indicated by the weekly exponential moving-average (EMA50) closing below the threshold.  He asserts that the market has entered the early stages of a substantial bear market, predicting that it will only abate once Bitcoin reaches the $54,000 to $60,000 range, which he expects might occur in the fourth quarter of 2026.  Despite this bearish outlook, he remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin in the short term. He expects a potential upward movement to retest the EMA50 Weekly, which currently stands at approximately $100,000, while maintaining that mid-term targets are much lower.  At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $90,352, which represents a 28% difference between current valuations and ATH levels.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has shown a sharp slowdown since spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched. While institutional inflows into these products have accelerated, the number of active BTC addresses has declined. As Wall Street embraces BTC exposure, the network’s grassroots participation appears to be undergoing a significant transformation. In an X post, the CEO of SwanDesk, financial analyst Jacob King, pointed out that Bitcoin active addresses have been in a steady decline since the US spot BTC ETFs launched in January 2024, and the irony is obvious. Why Retail Participation Shows Signs Of Fatigue  For years, BTC maximalists have pushed for Wall Street adoption, believing institutional involvement would unlock the next wave of mass usage. Instead, on-chain participation has dropped sharply as retail lost interest. Related Reading: US Fed Has Ended Quantitative Tightening, But Why Is The Bitcoin Price Still Below $100,000? King noted that these Bitcoiners have piled into the ETF for a quick, early FOMO bump, and then bailed, leaving behind a market where the asset is increasingly traded by proxy. According to King, ETF investing kills BTC’s core principles. While investors no longer hold or control their own assets as banks do, which is the very system BTC was designed to challenge, greed always beats ideology. Market watcher Crypto Seth has revealed that the net inflows into BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot BTC ETFs have been relatively subdued since October 10, when the largest liquidation events happened. Seth believes that this might turn into a momentum reversal soon, as the US stock market is at 1% below new highs despite retail sentiment remaining stuck in extreme fear. Seth also pointed out that the macro backdrop is shifting in BTC’s favor. This is because the Federal Reserve ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2025, wrapping up a multi-year effort that shaved nearly $3 trillion from the balance sheet since 2022.  Since the US Fed rate is still at 4.00%, more interest rate cuts are on the horizon, which is higher than both Europe and China. The BlackRock iShares BTC Trust (IBIT), which was launched in January 2024, is currently the firm’s most profitable exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on annual fee revenue, despite being less than two years old. Unlocking Bitcoin Without Compromising Its Core Principles Bitcoin is seeing key initiatives that improve its ecosystem. Every market cycle that has promise to unlock Bitcoin for decentralized finance (DeFi), RioSwap is one of the few products built on infrastructure that was capable of unlocking it in a truly decentralized way.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Aims Higher as Bulls Regain Strength and Push for Resistance Break According to Mintlayer, this was powered by Mintlayer’s native HTLC architecture, as RioSwap introduces a Decentralized Exchange (DEX) that allows BTC to move directly into decentralized markets without wrapping, unbridging, and is fully in the user’s control. With the RioSwap testnet now live, Mintlayer sees this as the start of a new liquidity phase for BTC where the asset will become an active participant in the decentralized market on its own terms. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has revisited long-term charts from 2012-2015, noting that the current Bitcoin (BTC) cycle shows striking similarities to this timeline, in terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action. During the 2017-2015 bull run, BTC experienced one of the strongest multi-year advances before bottoming out. The market expert claims that the same sequence of peaks and pullbacks observed in that timeline is now unfolding again in this cycle.  Bitcoin RSI Comparison Signals Bottoming Structure Bitcoin’s latest momentum study by crypto analyst Tony Severino has drawn significant attention from market watchers. In his X post on December 6, Severino highlighted surprising similarities between the RSI trend and price movements of the 2023-2026 cycle and those observed from 2012 to 2015.  Related Reading: The $13.5 Billion Liquidity Injection That Could Send Bitcoin And Crypto Prices Flying His comparison focuses on the timing of several major points that appeared in both cycles. These include the moment a price bottom began to form, the first price peak, a subsequent momentum peak, and finally a Bearish Divergence that typically precedes deeper corrective phases. Severino shared a chart from the 2012-2015 cycle showing that Bitcoin’s RSI had gradually climbed, with several short bursts of sharper upward momentum along the way. Eventually, momentum faded, and the indicator declined for an extended period before settling in a mid-range zone at the 44 level.  In the current cycle, which began in 2023, the RSI also climbed sharply before reaching a notable peak. Since then, the indicator has been gradually declining, currently sitting around 38. This level is similar to the mid-range RSI values observed in the former cycle before Bitcoin advanced again.  Sharing a second chart, Severino also pointed to Bitcoin’s price action relative to its RSI performance across both cycles. During the earlier cycle, Bitcoin’s price sat around $233.54, while in the recent cycle, it has declined to $89,352. The analyst argues that the alignment between the RSI movements and price action in both timelines strengthens his theory that Bitcoin may be approaching a meaningful bottom soon.  Severino also suggested that if history repeats in the 2023-2026 cycle, traders could be looking at the early stages of a year-long accumulation phase, similar to what played out a decade ago. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that there is no guarantee that the current cycle will mirror past patterns completely.  Analyst Flags New BTC Bullish Crossover Crypto analyst AO has shared a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, highlighting the formation of a Bullish Crossover—a key technical signal that has historically preceded significant price surges. According to him, each time the Stochastic RSI on US10Y*CN10Y experiences a Bullish Crossover, Bitcoin enters a significant bull run. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Can Hit These ‘Realistic’ Bullish Targets Before The Bear Market Begins AO presented a chart showcasing four previous Bullish Crossovers, each followed by a massive price increase. The first crossover appeared in 2013 and coincided with an early surge. The second came in 2017, marking the start of a multi-month bull run. The third occurred in late 2020, shortly before BTC’s record-breaking run in 2021. The most recent signal has not emerged in 2025, suggesting the potential for a similar upward move. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

After breaking below $90,000 again, the next direction of the Bitcoin price is being hotly debated once again. This comes with the added burden of a number of major events coming around this week, as well as investor sentiment being stuck in the negative territory for an extended period of time. Crypto analyst, MarcPMarkets, shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and what investors should be looking out for as the next direction is determined. The Bearish And Bullish Scenarios In the analysis shared on the TradingView website, MarcPMarkets highlights the different scenarios that could determine where the Bitcoin price could be headed next. Cautioning investors to watch out for confirmation, the first level that the analyst highlights is the $93,500 area, where the Bitcoin price had failed to reclaim a high. Related Reading: Analyst Says Dogecoin Price Is Ready To Fly, Here’s Why Since the price fell below $90,000 over the weekend, the next major level now lies at $88,000, and it is where bulls must protect their support. In the event that bulls lose this support and the price breaks decisively below this point, the crypto analyst warns investors to expect the Bitcoin price to crash another $10,000. Next would be the $78,000 area, where the cryptocurrency is likely to secure its next support. On the flip side, where the Bitcoin price could turn bullish once again, the crypto analyst points to the $95,000 resistance. Investors are to pay attention to this resistance, because if broken, then it would mean that strength is building back up, completely canceling out the bearish scenario highlighted above. The major targets in the case of a bullish takeover would first be $105,581. Above this lies the next major level of $113,213, and then finally, the $120,850 target that would be the final hit before momentum fizzles out. Developments That Could Affect The Bitcoin Price Beyond the price action, some events that could affect Bitcoin’s trajectory are expected to unfold this week. The FOMC meeting is drawing closer, with the Fed expected to announce its stance on the financial markets going forward. Related Reading: Industry Leader Shares Why Ethereum Price Will Reach $12,000 If, at the completion of the press conference, the Fed takes on a dovish stance, then the crypto analyst expects that prices will begin to move upward again. Additionally, quantitative tightening ended at the start of December, ushering the markets into an era of quantitative easing, which has always been bullish for risk assets as new liquidity is pumped into the market. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson has laid out one of the most aggressive long-term bitcoin targets in the space yet, arguing in an interview with reporter Phil Rosen that the cryptocurrency could reach $50 million per coin by 2041. His projection is tied to a thesis that bitcoin will evolve from “digital gold” into the core collateral layer of the global financial system. Jackson said his thinking grows out of the same “hundred bagger” framework he used when buying beaten-down equities like Carvana. He recalled entering Carvana after its share price collapsed from around $400 to roughly $3.50 in 2022, at a time when sentiment was almost universally hostile. “You would hear things like, that’s run by a bunch of criminals. This is what a bunch of idiots. Like you’d have to be an idiot to let your company go from $400 this year to $450 or $350 rather,” he told Rosen. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Profitability Hits ‘Complete Reset’ — What’s Next For Price? For Jackson, that period illustrated how markets behave at extremes. “It’s human nature almost that when you’re in the moment of max pain or pessimism, you can only see what’s right in front of you,” he said. Yet the underlying product remained strong: “It wasn’t a broken platform. It wasn’t a broken service […] they would tell you they loved it. It was so easy. It was the best customer experience they had.” From there, he could “envision how they were going to be like a much more profitable business” once the company focused on profitability and addressed its debt. Jackson’s Long-Term Thesis For Bitcoin He applies the same long-horizon lens to bitcoin, arguing that the day-to-day ticker and polarized narratives obscure its structural potential. “We get so tied to turning on the TV and just seeing, like, what’s the price of Bitcoin today […] Some people are bearish and they say, oh, it’s a Ponzi scheme. And some people are bullish and they just, you know, throw these like kind of pie in the sky targets that you can’t really tie to reality,” Jackson said. “It’s kind of hard to latch on to like, what is the value of this thing?” Jackson begins with the common “digital gold” framing. He asks how large the gold market is, how many central banks and sovereigns hold it and why. “Could Bitcoin be as big as gold one day? That seems like a safe assumption,” he argued, adding that because it is “digital” and “programmable” rather than a “hunk of rock,” younger generations may prefer it as a store of value. But he stresses that this is only part of the story, as bitcoin has not become a medium for daily transactions “since the guy who bought pizza with Bitcoin back in like 2011.” The “penny dropped,” he said, when he began to think in terms of what he calls the “global collateral layer” that underpins borrowing by sovereigns and central banks. Historically, that base layer moved from gold to the Eurodollar system from the 1960s onward, and today is heavily intertwined with sovereign debt. “All the countries around the world issue debt and then they kind of borrow against that and they do their daily like government transactions,” he noted, but “there are problems with that.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Top Analyst Assigns 91.5% Probability In Jackson’s “Vision 2041,” bitcoin replaces the Eurodollar and, functionally, becomes the neutral asset that other balance sheets are built upon. He argues that bitcoin is “much superior” as collateral because it is digital and “apolitical,” sitting outside central banks and the influence of “whoever the latest treasury secretary here is in the US.” As with the Eurodollar, he does not see this as a direct attack on the dollar or Treasuries, but as a new underlying layer: “There’s some underlying thing that a lot of other countries and the financial systems borrow against to kind of do things.” Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) expects bitcoin to hit $50 million by 2041. He compares his thesis to how he knew Carvana, $CVNA, would be a 100-bagger stock pick. pic.twitter.com/CA9BWoR4zF — Phil Rosen (@philrosenn) December 7, 2025 Looking ahead 15 years, Jackson envisions sovereigns that currently issue and roll debt instead “rely on Bitcoin,” because “over time, like that’s much more logical.” Given the “enormous” scale of the sovereign debt world, he argues that if bitcoin becomes the dominant collateral substrate, its price per coin would need to reach orders of magnitude above current levels—hence his $50 million-by-2041 target. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,574. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Following a fresh wave of bearish pressure on Friday, December 5, the price of Bitcoin has struggled beneath the psychological 90,000 level for much of the weekend. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might be readying for its next healthy upward move. BTC SOPR Drops To Lowest Level Since Early 2024 In a December 6 post on the X platform, CryptoOnchain hypothesized that a local bottom appears to be forming for the price of Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the selling pressure, especially amongst long-term holders, seems to be fading off at the moment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Structure Tightens: One Break Above This Zone Could Ignite A Run To $107,000 This market observation centers on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which evaluates the profitability ratio of spent outputs for both long-term and short-term holders. This on-chain indicator evaluates whether market participants are selling their assets at a profit or at a loss. Typically, when the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio has a value greater than 1, it indicates that the investors are selling at a profit. On the flip side, an SOPR value less than 1 implies that the market participants are offloading their coins while in the red. According to CryptoOnchain, the Bitcoin SOPR has now fallen to 1.35, its lowest level since early 2024. The market analyst noted that this metric’s latest movement suggests a complete reset in market profitability, especially as the price of BTC slid beneath the $90,000 mark. Furthermore, CryptoOnchain highlighted that the heavy profit-taking phase by long-term holders appears to be coming to an end, as exhaustion and fatigue increasingly spread among the bears. From a historical perspective, the SOPR metric falling to this low signals a local bottom is forming for the BTC price, especially as the market cools down. Ultimately, CryptoOnchain revealed that a price rebound at this point could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next healthy upward rally.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,500, reflecting no significant changes in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by nearly 2% in the last seven days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Set To Last Until 2027, Analysts Highlight Influential Factors With the price of Bitcoin down year-to-date and from its all-time high of $126,080 by roughly 5% and 30%, respectively, the market leader looks set to end 2025 in the red—barring a sudden change in market momentum. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market appears to be riddled with an increasing amount of sell-side pressure, as its recent price action reveals bears’ dominance. Interestingly, another on-chain evaluation suggests that the current market movement may be a direct effect of rising panic-induced sales.  $1.7B Realized Losses Vs $605M Realized Gains In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, GugaOnChain shared that the Bitcoin market has been in a capitulation phase in recent days. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Realized Profit and Loss ($) metric. For context, this metric tracks the actual profits (in US dollars) and losses investors realize—or lock in—whenever they offload their Bitcoin holdings to exchanges.  Related Reading: Massive Bitcoin Awakening: 2 Physical Coins Unlock $179 Million After 13 Years GugaOnChain highlighted that about $1.705 billion worth of BTC has been realized in losses by market participants. On the other hand, a relatively smaller amount, totaling approximately $605 million, was reportedly realized in gains. Source: CryptoOnchainThis disproportionate distribution in losses, as against the profits acquired, puts the Loss/Gain ratio at a 2.82 reading. This means that, for every dollar made in profit, almost 3 dollars are lost.  Looking at the bigger picture, the analyst pointed out that 74% of the total realized volume leans towards the red side of the market, leaving a mere 26% of the Bitcoin market in profits. When realized losses surge rapidly to overcome gains, it is often interpreted as a sign of capitulation. Historically, extreme capitulation events tend to set the pace either for price recovery or even deeper downside movement. These two possibilities, however, remain dependent on the integrity of available inflection points.  Bulls Must Defend These Price Levels Or Risk Deeper Corrections Although the market odds currently seem stacked against the bulls, as the price takes on a bearish structure, the analyst also identified a few important zones that may determine Bitcoin’s next direction. GugaOnChain explained that, in the scenario where the bulls continue to bleed, the next price level presenting an opportunity of redemption lies around $71,450. This specific price level is critical, as it represents the realized price for investors who have acquired Bitcoin for about 12–18 months.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Season Hinges On Key $82,150 Level – Here’s Why Citing a more extreme scenario, the online pundit revealed that the next key support sits at $58,940. This zone is important as it is the realized price for investors whose coins are within the 18-month to 2-year age range.   On the weekly timeframe, however, price zones around $80,000 and $74,000 appear significant enough for a short-term price recovery. A bullish reversal could take place if these price levels were to meet the present downturn with significant opposing strength.  As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $89,331, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.    Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin finds itself at a critical crossroads, hovering between two major price zones that could define its next big move. Buyers and sellers are locked in a tight battle, and the market now waits for a decisive break. A push above key resistance could open the door to $107,000, while weakness at support risks a deeper slide toward $71,000. Bounce Scenario: A Return Toward The Pink Box And Descending Trendline Kamile Uray, in her latest update on Bitcoin, noted that BTC failed to hold above the $90,720 level on the hourly chart, triggering the expected decline. The first immediate support now sits at $87,644, while the deeper support range lies between $83,822 and $82,477. If buyers defend this zone successfully, Bitcoin could attempt another climb toward the pink box region and retest the descending trendline overhead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Structure Echoes 2022 Bear Start, Glassnode Warns Uray explained that a sustained move above the pink box resistance on the daily timeframe would open the door for Bitcoin to challenge the descending blue trendline. A confirmed breakout from this area could strengthen bullish momentum, pushing the price toward the next major resistance levels at $98,200 and $107,500. A break above $107,500 alongside the descending trendline would serve as a strong signal that the broader uptrend is ready to continue. However, she warned that a daily close below $82,477 would shift the market structure toward further weakness, placing Bitcoin at risk of revisiting lower levels. Even so, Uray highlighted one critical area of strength: the $74,496–$71,237 zone. This region represents the key breakout top from November 2024 and is considered a strong historical support. In this area, buyers may step in aggressively, potentially setting the stage for an upward reversal. Bitcoin Price Rejection At $93,000–$95,000 Zone According to Crypto Candy, Bitcoin’s latest price action has been unfolding precisely in line with expectations. After facing rejection in the $93,000–$95,000 resistance zone, BTC dipped sharply and nearly touched the anticipated support range at $86,000–$87,500. This move reflects the broader market’s reaction to heavy selling pressure near the upper resistance band. Related Reading: Reversal Loading? Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Build Powerful High-Time-Frame Structures Crypto Candy emphasized that the $86,000–$87,500 zone now serves as a crucial pivot area. If buyers successfully defend this support and the price stabilizes above it, Bitcoin could once again revisit the $93,000–$95,000 range, or even push beyond it. Such a rebound would signal renewed bullish momentum and set the stage for another attempt at breaking higher resistance levels. However, the analyst also warned that failure to hold the $86,000–$87,500 support could trigger deeper downside movement. If the level gives way, Bitcoin may slide to lower price zones in the coming days as bearish pressure strengthens. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the bearish orientation of the Bitcoin price has continued into the month of December, suggesting that the premier cryptocurrency could end the year in the red. Interestingly, recent on-chain data has offered insights into the likely direction of Bitcoin based on the integrity of an important price level. Active Market Participants’ Cost Basis At $82,000 In a December 5 post on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an interesting outlook on the direction of the Bitcoin price.  The analyst disclosed that whatever happens around the $82,000 mark could make or mar Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. To demonstrate why this price region is so important, Kesmeci pointed out that it appears to be the convergence point of two highly influential cost bases in Bitcoin’s history.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Signals Bear Market: One Thing Could Flip It, Says CryptoQuant CEO Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have an average purchase cost of approximately $82,000. Because ETFs are one of Bitcoin’s strongest demand sources, tracking the values of their average cost-basis could serve as a good means to tell where the market stands institutionally. The crypto pundit also referenced the Bitcoin True Market Mean metric, which monitors the cost at which active investors procured their holdings—except for mined or rarely-moved BTC. Notably, in the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s active participants mostly purchased their coins around a valuation of $82,000.  What Happens If $82,000 Fails?  Usually, when price slips beneath any major price support, there is, in turn, an increase in overall selling pressure, as buy-side liquidity is converted to bearish momentum via losses incurred by investors. Hence, in the scenario where $82,000 fails to hold, a wave of bearish pressure is expected to ensue, as Bitcoin’s active investors try to cut their losses.  However, Kesmeci expects something even more specific to follow. According to historical data, whenever Bitcoin falls beneath its active market participant cost basis, it often falls further downwards, as though it is targeting its Realized Price. Related Reading: The $13.5 Billion Liquidity Injection That Could Send Bitcoin And Crypto Prices Flying At the moment, the Bitcoin Realized Price sits near $56,000 — a price level significantly beneath its investors’ average cost basis. Kesmeci therefore warned that a slip beneath $82,000 could precede Bitcoin’s sharp downturn towards $56,000. This would represent an almost 40% decline from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,310, reflecting an over 3% dip in the past 24 hours.  Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price has had a mixed performance over the past week, with both sides of the market divide struggling to establish dominance. In the latest battle between the bulls and bears, the premier cryptocurrency appears to be succumbing to pressure from the latter group. As this weekend approached, the Bitcoin price retreated from its latest local high of around $94,000 to beneath the psychological $90,000 level. This latest correction has prompted questions in the crowd, with investors wondering whether it is just a brief obstacle or the end of the recovery. Why $80,500 Could Be The Next Local Low For BTC In a December 5 post on the social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder shared insight into the latest Bitcoin price decline below $90,000. The on-chain expert revealed that losing the $89,800 level is the more relevant occurrence in the latest price downturn. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Potential 60% Decline As Expert Warns Of ‘Major Bull Trap’ In a previous post on X, Wedson evaluated the likely trajectory of the Bitcoin price should it lose the $89,800 level. The crypto pundit revealed that losing this price mark could lead to an accumulation pattern for the bulls or a redistribution phase for the bears. While the accumulation period for the bulls would initially coincide with lower prices, it eventually leads to a Bitcoin price return to above the latest local high. Meanwhile, a redistribution phase could see the bears push the flagship cryptocurrency to around the $70,000 mark. According to the Alphractal CEO, the price of BTC also failed to hold the key on-chain levels, strengthening the probability of a broader price sideways phase. “Sideways action is the cause — the big pumps or dumps are just the effect,” Wedson had earlier stated in his previous X post. Furthermore, Wedson noted that the next level to watch is $86,500, which, if lost, opens the very high possibility for the formation of a new local low around $80,500. This local low could provide a perfect spot for investors to buy the dip and enter the market. Bitcoin Price Overview  As mentioned earlier, the past week has been one of highs and lows for the premier cryptocurrency, plummeting to as low as $84,600 on Monday, December 1. After a shaky start to the month, the Bitcoin price recovered strongly to around $94,000 on Thursday, December 4. As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $89,415, reflecting an over 3% price decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin has been down by nearly 10% in the past year. Related Reading: XRP Price On The Verge Of Another Crash, But There’s Still Hope Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027. Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening.  They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.  The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise. Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range.  This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets. Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.  Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion. Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets.  Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity. There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends.  Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth. Extended Bitcoin Uptrend Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory. Related Reading: Trend Reversal Puts Dogecoin On A Path To $0.188 The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.  The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend. Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent.  Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk? Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.”  This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses. Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year.  He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA. If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook.  BTC Bottom In Sight?  Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments.  He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms. Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment. Related Reading: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Goes Live Today: Experts Predict Potential Supply Crunch Ahead Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers. Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Binance Blockchain Week event in Dubai became the center of a high-stakes showdown between traditional and digital innovation, with Bitcoin and gold going head-to-head. Investors, tech enthusiasts, and financial experts watched closely as Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expertly debated renowned Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, making a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is better than gold.  Binance Founder Dominates Bitcoin And Gold Debate During the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Schiff and CZ faced off in a high-profile debate over the value of Bitcoin versus Gold. Schiff defended gold as a safe, stable, and tangible asset while the Binance founder made a compelling case for Bitcoin’s adoption, utility, value, and global reach.  Related Reading: Crypto CEO Says Bitcoin Was Never Meant To Be ‘Digital Gold’ – So What Is It? Throughout the debate, which lasted over an hour, CZ consistently demonstrated the practical advantages of Bitcoin, leaving Schiff’s gold argument largely on the defensive. The Binance founder emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent and predictable supply and its role in the modern financial systems. He pointed to hundreds of millions of users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, savings, and transfers.  Schiff argued that Bitcoin lacks inherent value and is mainly driven by hype and faith that its price will rise. He stated that gold remains tangible, centuries old, scarce, and valuable in industry, making it superior to BTC. He further asserted that “nobody needs” Bitcoin and that the cryptocurrency is “backed by nothing.” Practical demonstrations played a key role in the debate between Schiff and CZ. The Binance founder explained how Bitcoin and crypto payments already improve financial efficiency, especially in emerging markets. Schiff questioned whether these transactions truly count as money, since merchants ultimately receive traditional currency. CZ’s response highlighted the importance of adoption and network effects, noting that people who use BTC directly for payments give it real-world significance. The debate also considered the preferences of younger generations. CZ asked Schiff whether millennials and Gen Z favoured Bitcoin or gold. The Bitcoin critic responded sharply, suggesting that they would choose gold. He pointed out that, with many young investors losing money on BTC, gold offers a safer, more appealing alternative. The Binance founder countered that younger people understand digital value more intuitively and prefer mobile, borderless, and censorship-resistant assets.  Digital Value And The Future Of Money The debate between CZ and Schiff also highlighted the changing definition of money. Bitcoin functions as a decentralized network that enables instant settlement and transparent verification. Its adoption has also helped evolve the financial economy, facilitating faster and more seamless cross-border payments. Schiff argued that gold’s scarcity and industrial demand preserve its value and make it a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty.  Related Reading: What Happens To The Bitcoin Price If It Follows Gold? Tokenization also became a point of agreement during the discussion, with Schiff emphasizing that gold can be digitized and tokenized for easier ownership and distribution without moving the physical metal. CZ contended that Bitcoin offers similar advantages while also enabling global financial inclusion. They also discussed the supply of both assets, with the Binance founder noting that Bitcoin has a visible supply, while gold doesn’t.  They also talked about the performance of both assets over the years. Schiff argued that gold had outperformed BTC over the past four years. CZ contended that Bitcoin has far outpaced gold over the last 8 years, and since its launch in 2009, it has skyrocketed from a few cents to an ATH above $126,000. He concluded his debate, predicting that Bitcoin’s growth will outpace gold over time. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has issued one of the most forceful bottom calls of this cycle, assigning a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In a X thread on December 4, he wrote: “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.” Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Deutscher bases his conviction on four “pillars”: market reaction to news, the historical behaviour of FUD events, a shift in flows, and an improving global liquidity backdrop. Each pillar is scored in an internal model that culminates in a 91.5/100 bullish reading. He starts with price behaviour versus headlines. Over recent days, he notes, the market has digested an “influx of bad news” – including renewed Tether FUD, another round of “China banning crypto,” MicroStrategy scrutiny and concerns around a Bank of Japan–driven yen carry trade unwind. “Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” he writes, calling this “the first time since the major selloff began” that Bitcoin has responded positively to a destructive news cycle. He underscores an old trading adage: “The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. This tells you everything you need to know.” Related Reading: US Sen. Lummis Hints At US Bitcoin Buy With ‘Franklin’ Meme The second pillar is a systematic look at whether such FUD clusters tend to coincide with local lows. Deutscher says he backtested “every single time Tether, China, BOJ, and Microstrategy FUD entered the market” in a similar way. His conclusion is stark: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom. Tether FUD = bottom. China ‘banning’ crypto = bottom. Bank of Japan/carry trade concerns = bottom. Microstrategy FUD = bottom.” On this basis, his AI model assigns the maximum score of 28/28 to this pillar. He cautions that “in isolation, this factor doesn’t matter much,” but argues that, combined with the first pillar, it “starts to paint a convincing bull case.” The third pillar is flows, which he calls “the most critical factor (net buy/sell pressure).” For the past weeks, flows were “aggressively negative” with OG whales selling and ETFs dumping. Recently, he argues, this picture has changed. ETF inflows are “starting to stabilise & uptick,” treasury-company holdings remain stable, and “OG whales have stopped relentlessly dumping (this is clear on the orderbooks).” This earns a 22.5/25 score in his model. He adds one key caveat: as long as DATs exist, “there are material risks.” Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Traders Fear A Repeat Of July 2024’s Crash Next Week The fourth pillar is the liquidity and macro environment. Deutscher notes that market liquidity had been tightening for months, but now “things are shifting back toward increased market liquidity,” with global financial conditions “reloosened to near highs.” He highlights “macro tailwinds” and adds that a new, potentially more dovish Fed chair is coming and “QT has now officially ended.” This set of factors receives a 9/10 score in his framework. Aggregating all four pillars leads to the headline figure: “With all four market pillars taken into account, we arrive at a final score of 91.5/100.” Deutscher, however, explicitly lists caveats. He points out that US markets “have been on a massive run” and may need to cool off, that DATs “are still seeing some short-term pressure,” and that ETF flows “can flip negative at any time.” His conclusion is probabilistic rather than absolute: “Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favour of the bottom being in – given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,035. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price volatility is once again drawing attention to MicroStrategy, the company whose strategy has become a major market reference point, with billions in accumulated BTC and a track record of aggressive buying during downturns. As traders search for stability in a shaky market, Strategy’s stance is being watched closely for what it might signal about the next phase of BTC’s trend. Why MicroStrategy’s Next Move Could Redirect Market Momentum Bitcoin’s recent volatility has put MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC, in the limelight. Walter Bloomberg has revealed on X that analysts are watching closely to see if the company could influence the cryptocurrency’s price if it sells some of its holdings. Related Reading: Will Strategy Liquidate Bitcoin Holdings? CEO Provides Concerning Clues According to JPMorgan, Strategy can avoid forced sales as long as its enterprise value-to-BTC holdings ratio stays above 1.0, which currently stands at 1.13 BTC. However, analysts continue to debunk these claims, accusing JPMorgan of spreading misinformation about market manipulation and the company. Walter stated that if the ratio remains above this level, BTC markets may stabilize and ease recent market pressure. Due to the market pressure, the firm has slowed its BTC purchases, adding 9,062 BTC last month compared to 134,480 BTC a year ago, reflecting a more cautious accumulation approach amid a broader crypto downturn. Its stock has dropped roughly 42% over the past three months. Additionally, challenges include the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could trigger $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows if index funds are forced to divest. However, MicroStrategy holds a $1.4 billion reserve for dividends and interest, helping it avoid selling its BTC even if the price falls further. In the meantime, there is no proof that MicroStrategy is in danger of liquidation. How Institutional Behavior Builds A Higher Floor For Bitcoin In a market speculation, Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the most significant capital migrations in its history, fueled by institutional adoption. Analyst Matthew noted that the current BTC market cycle from 2022 to 2025 has already absorbed an unprecedented amount of new capital, surpassing all previous BTC cycles. This growth is a reflection of the market’s maturity and the ecosystem’s innovative approach to liquidity through regulated instruments. Furthermore, the network has incorporated more than $732 billion in fresh capital in the current cycle, surpassing the $388 billion that was injected during the 2018 to 2022 cycle. At that time, the surge helped push BTC market capitalization to an all-time high record of $1.1 trillion, a metric that indicates a much higher aggregate cost base for new institutional investors. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Traders Fear A Repeat Of July 2024’s Crash Next Week Meanwhile, the total settlement volume in the decentralized BTC protocol was approximately $6.9 trillion in just 90 days. Despite this, the number of active on-chain entities dropped from 240,000 to 170,000 per day, which is a reflection of liquidity migration of capital flows into spot ETFs. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has been struggling to build momentum in recent weeks, and the return of cash into the system is raising questions about whether this could be the moment that changes the tone of the crypto market. That growing sense of anticipation has already started to show up in prices, with the total crypto market cap climbing more than $250 billion from its $3.016 trillion low on December 2. What Happened: The Liquidity Injection And Why It Matters After officially bringing its multi-year quantitative tightening (QT) program to an end, the central bank followed up with a $13.5 billion overnight repo operation, funneled through the New York Fed. Banks brought $13.5 billion in Treasuries to the Fed, the Fed accepted all of it, and instantly injected $13.5 billion of fresh reserves into the system. Related Reading: A Bitcoin Parabolic Rally Is Coming: Eric Trump Shares Why First Family Is Pro-Crypto The move, which is the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 crisis, effectively puts an end the steady shrinkage of bank reserves that has persisted for years, easing pressure on short-term funding markets and signaling a more accommodative liquidity environment. The crypto market responded almost instantly. A handful of major assets began turning green within hours of the injection, with Bitcoin leading the charge with an instant break above $92,000. The influx was visible at a macro level as well: the total crypto market cap climbed from a December 2 low of $3.016 trillion to $3.269 trillion by December 4. A gain of more than $250 billion in under 48 hours What Investors Should Watch Next Ending QT leads to better liquidity and often create a bullish environment for equities and other riskier investments like cryptocurrencies. However, although a single liquidity event does not guarantee a sustained multi-month rally, this injection stands out not just for its size but for what it represents.  Related Reading: 4 Bitcoin Indicators That Led To Market Rallies In The Last 2 Years Have Returned In a CNBC interview, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated that the Fed’s decision to stop QT will be a turning point for the cryptocurrency market. Lee pointed out that the last time the Fed ended QT, the market rose about 17% within three weeks. The previous time the Fed brought quantitative tightening to a stop was in July 2019, roughly a year after it began reducing its balance sheet. In the three weeks that followed, the S&P 500 climbed about 5%. Bitcoin’s also initially rallied in the same period, but its strongest reaction came months after, towards late 2019 and early 2020. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is again trading under the shadow of a potential yen carry-trade shock as markets head into the 9–10 December FOMC meeting and a likely hawkish turn from the Bank of Japan at the December 18-19 meeting. The setup echoes last summer’s episode, when a policy shift in Tokyo triggered rapid deleveraging across risk assets, including crypto. Will The Bitcoin Price Crash Next Week? Analyst Benjamin Cowen explicitly links today’s environment to that July shock. He reminded followers that “in July 2024, the Fed cut rates while the BOJ raised rates, leading to the unwind of the carry trade. Bitcoin capitulated into it, and found a low 1 week later.” He added, “Good chance this happens again on December 10th (Fed cuts, BOJ raises rates). So maybe Bitcoin finds a low mid-Dec?” The precise sequencing last year was more nuanced – markets aggressively priced Fed easing while the BoJ surprised with a hike – but the core mechanism Cowen highlights is the same: when US policy is moving toward looser conditions just as Japan tightens, the long-running yen carry trade becomes unstable and high-beta assets sell off hard. Related Reading: Bitcoin Signals Bear Market: One Thing Could Flip It, Says CryptoQuant CEO Truflation’s thread lays out why this matters for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Large institutions and commercial banks “borrow money in Yen where interest rates are historically and famously low, and use that money to invest in the US.” They can park the funds in interest-bearing instruments to “earn healthy 3–4%” on the spread, or “more often, they invest in stocks and bonds to get way more.” This is reinforced by a BoJ policy of keeping the yen cheap against the dollar. The danger arises when stocks fall and the yen starts to rise or is expected to rise. Then “institutional and Commercial borrowers may exit, so as not to get stuck with significant losses on their Yen debts.” They “sell whatever assets they purchased in the US and get back into Yen to pay back their loans in Japan, resulting in a cascade of US asset sales and Yen purchases.” After “years of Yen carry trade being a relatively safe way for big banks and institutional investors to make easy money,” even a modest normalization can force broad, mechanical de-risking — and Bitcoin, as a liquid, leveraged risk asset, sits directly in that firing line. Crypto trader Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) underscores how tight the current window is. He notes that “we have the Fed’s preferred measure to track inflation via the Core PCE inflation and then the FOMC all in the next six days,” followed by a BoJ press conference on 19 December that will be “massive for Dollar, short end and long end of the yield curve not to mention Yen carry trade fears.” In a separate post, he stresses that “the JP10Y continues to make new highs. Pretty big deal folks,” highlighting that Japanese yields are grinding higher into that meeting and increasing pressure on the BoJ to act. Related Reading: US Sen. Lummis Hints At US Bitcoin Buy With ‘Franklin’ Meme A few days ago, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes connected that macro repricing directly to Bitcoin’s latest leg down. “BTC dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155–160 makes BOJ hawkish,” he argues, framing the sell-off as a funding shock rather than a crypto-native event. Into December, futures and economist surveys put the probability of a Fed cut at roughly 80–87% for the 9–10 December meeting, even as the committee remains divided. At the same time, the BoJ is openly signalling it will “consider the pros and cons” of a hike at its 18–19 December meeting, with markets now pricing a high likelihood of tightening and 10-year JGB yields near multi-decade highs. That combination — Fed easing expectations plus BoJ tightening risk — is exactly the configuration that threatens the yen carry and makes a repeat of July 2024’s pattern plausible: a sharp flush in Bitcoin and other risk assets, followed by a bottom once forced deleveraging runs its course. At press time, BTC traded at $92,235. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin may be sliding into a new bear phase unless fresh macro liquidity – particularly through spot ETFs – returns to the market, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Bitcoin Bear Market Incoming? Sharing a composite on-chain dashboard overlaid on the BTC price, Ju wrote on X: “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish. Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.” The chart stacks ten CryptoQuant metrics behind the price in a red-to-green heatmap from 2021 to 2025, highlighting how regime shifts in prior cycles coincided with clusters of bearish readings. Related Reading: US Sen. Lummis Hints At US Bitcoin Buy With ‘Franklin’ Meme The indicators in the panel include the MVRV Z-score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price and a Technical Signal metric. When the majority are bullish, the backdrop turns light green; when they flip bearish, it shifts to red. In the latest section of the chart, as BTC has pulled back from its highs, red once again dominates – the visual basis for Ju’s warning. For the next major move, Ju argues that on-chain data is now subordinate to macro conditions and ETF flows. Quoting his own post, he wrote: “It is simple. If you think macro gets better next year, you buy. Otherwise, you sell. I’m not a macro expert, so find macro bros. New ETF inflows are the key.” That line pinpoints what he believes can “save” Bitcoin from a deeper drawdown: renewed demand from spot ETFs as a conduit for institutional capital. In earlier stages of the cycle, rising ETF inflows coincided with strong price appreciation; more recently, slowing or negative flows have mirrored the loss of upward momentum. Ju frames the current environment as one that demands flexible scenario management rather than rigid forecasts. “At this stage, it is more about being reactive than predictive. Set your scenarios and trade accordingly,” he told followers. The composite chart is designed for exactly that purpose, showing how past bull tops and bear markets aligned with persistent stretches of red across profit, valuation and liquidity metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin And The 2026 Fed Shift: Expert Says Markets Aren’t Ready Despite the bearish tilt, Ju does not foresee a repeat of the 2022 collapse, when Bitcoin fell roughly 65% from peak to trough. He cites the behaviour of Michael Saylor led Strategy as a stabilizing factor. “If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022,” he wrote. In his view, that supply remaining largely off the market reduces the probability of a violent deleveraging event. Ju characterizes the current pullback as substantial but not extreme in historical context. “We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range,” he argued, suggesting that prolonged consolidation is more likely than a single dramatic crash. His message to long-term investors is explicitly calming. “Long-term holders should avoid panic selling,” he advised. While cyclical on-chain indicators flash red, he insists the structural backdrop has improved: “Bitcoin has more liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is obviously strong, imo.” Those channels include ETFs and a deeper institutional market structure than in prior cycles. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,494. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In the volatile theatre of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing signs of a potential high-time-frame reversal. After weeks of stress and price compression, each of the top assets is now stabilizing at key structural support levels. The multiple leading cryptocurrencies are flashing similar recovery setups at the same time. The current crypto landscape may be setting up one of the most powerful high-time-frame reversals across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. An investor and trader known as MacroCRG on X highlighted that yesterday, all three assets printed a bullish engulfing candle, a strong signal that buyers are stepping back in with intent. Market Leaders Hint At A Shift Before Smaller Assets Follow On the weekly chart, each asset is showing the early stages of an inside-week breakout paired with a false breakdown. MacroCRG pointed out that a similar structure on the ES (S&P 500 futures) chart from April, where the breakdown of inside-week structure led to a breakout that never looked back when the bull secured the weekly close. Related Reading: Institutions Exit Bitcoin In Large Tranches, Ethereum, Solana And XRP See Massive Buy-Ins For this setup to take hold, these prices need to close the week above the key highlighted highs on the chart. However, there’s still a long way to go before the weekly close will confirm the breakout, and the bulls need to follow through with conviction and remove any doubt. The founder of the ProMintClub investment community, ProMint, has spotted a high-conviction whale trader aggressively building long positions across the crypto market. Currently, the trader is leading the Lighter leaderboard with over $64 million in profit and loss, while maintaining an 83% long bias. His Lighter account has the highest profit and loss with over $8 million. These are insane numbers compared to everyone else on the leaderboard. Data shows that the trader has made five deposits into his Lighter account, which total around $6 million in capital. His positions are spread across BTC, ETH, SOL, AAVE, along with smaller plays such as PAXG and PUMP, consistently entering at strong timing points and riding momentum higher. Even though funding costs have flipped heavily negative, he is not backing down. Presently, this is the top-performing account on Lighter, and this is serious capital deployed with conviction. How Increased Partners Drive Sustained Volume Demand According to Chainflip Labs, November marked one of the strongest performance months in the protocol’s history, clearing over $583 million in swap volume, which is the second-best month ever for the network.  Related Reading: You Won’t Believe How Much Bitcoin Companies Now Hold, What % Of Supply Do They Control? Demand remained sustained across BTC, ETH, and SOL routes, and more partners are routing flow through the network than ever before. The trend clearly shows that Chainflip will continue to scale. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com