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A swirl of bullish proclamations is ricocheting across X as macro‑minded influencers argue that a fresh expansion in “Global M2” money supply will trigger a near‑instant rally in Bitcoin—yet a veteran market analyst is warning that the data underpinning those calls is little more than a mirage. The latest wave of optimism was set in motion when Real Vision co‑founder Raoul Pal published an updated overlay of Bitcoin versus Global M2—an aggregate of every major country’s broad money supply converted to US‑dollar terms—and told followers, “It is time, give or take a few days.” Other accounts also shared similar charts. One asserted that Bitcoin “continues to mirror Global M2 with its classic 12‑week lag,” predicting “aggressive upside likely kicks off next week… $74.5 K looks like it was the bottom,” while other self-proclaimed crypto guru promised a new all‑time high “within weeks.” Bitcoin Vs. M2: Is A Price Explosion Really Coming? The viral charts drew immediate fire from TXMC (@TXMCtrades). In a lengthy thread he argued that computing a daily or even weekly Global M2 series is “goofy and frankly a scam” because “the United States is only updating M2 on a weekly basis and all others are monthly.” He continued: Related Reading: This Bitcoin Bear Confirmation Is Yet To Appear, Glassnode Reveals “You are looking at basically 30 out of 31 days of FX fluctuations with a static once‑monthly global aggregate multiplied behind it… China, USA, and Japan have even updated into March. The rest are still on February values during a time when the dollar has been tanking hard… You’re looking at an M2‑weighted inverse dollar exchange rate 95% of the time. Be better at math!” TXMC noted that China now accounts for roughly 46 percent of the putative Global M2 and is “the ONLY major country whose broad money supply is above its post‑covid peak in dollar terms,” a dynamic that “goes straight up” because Beijing is “trying to ease out of an ongoing multi‑year debt deflation.” By contrast, US M2 “is below its 2022 peak… and growing at the slowest pace since Bitcoin’s birth excluding 2022‑24 when it was negative y/y.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Pressure As Report Flags Chinese Sell-Off Plans Beyond the cadence mismatch, he blasted the practice of applying “random #‑week offsets” to force a visual correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin. “These charts are over‑fitted junk using extremely recent history as a thesis for why they should correlate,” he said, adding that while assets can be “directionally sympathetic on a monthly basis… the main critiques relate to presenting a daily/weekly metric using monthly data… AND using over‑fitted offsets of that data to try to forecast the future for a content audience.” The broadside prompted a rebuttal from YouTuber Colin Talks Crypto (@ColinTCrypto), who claimed that key central banks do in fact provide higher‑frequency figures. “China M2 updates daily—not monthly,” he wrote, attaching what he said were current charts through April 17 2025. “Japan’s M2 also updates daily… Since about half of your post relies on ‘China data being slow and outdated’… your post’s main argument weakens greatly at this point.” TXMC swiftly countered that assertion, insisting “there is no daily M2” and that any high‑frequency series is merely “a projection of a 1‑2 month old value using real‑time FX values.” The sudden April “pop” in Global M2, he maintained, is nothing more than the dollar’s sharp slide translated mechanically into larger dollar‑denominated money stocks. “Because Global M2 doesn’t actually exist, it is an abstraction of money that lives solely in a chart formula,” he wrote. “It treats all broad aggregates around the world as the same pool of eligible capital and introduces a heap of noise via foreign exchange rates… this is how the sausage is actually made and it’s not sexy.” At press time, BTC traded at $84,750. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Quinten recently revealed that Bitcoin has entered oversold levels. However, analyst Dr. Cat has warned that, contrary to public opinion, this development is bearish, not bullish, for the flagship crypto.  In an X post, Dr. Cat stated that Bitcoin entering oversold levels is “super-bearish” and overbought levels are “super-bullish.” He explained that for the oscillator to reach oversold values, it means that the price action has been extremely bearish, indicating why investors are selling their holdings.  Why Bitcoin Entering Oversold Levels Is Bearish   The crypto analyst further remarked that Oscillators are range-bound indicators, so they can’t go beyond 0 and 100, as they are limited by their mathematical formulas. However, he added that the Bitcoin price can go lower or higher. Dr. Cat then alluded to Bitcoin’s bull markets, noting that all of them are in overbought territory on the weekly chart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Break $125,000 But Sell Everything In October, Analyst Warns The analyst stated that if an investor buys an oversold condition on a lower timeframe when Bitcoin’s higher timeframe is bullish, this is a good move. However, he remarked that whoever advises buying a weekly oversold chart based on the claim that it is bullish because it is oversold has no idea what they are talking about. He remarked that many altcoins are oversold on the higher timeframe and can remain oversold as they approach zero, where the analyst claims they are eventually headed. Dr. Cat also explained that in a bull market, oversold conditions on the daily chart may mark higher lows on the weekly or monthly chart.  However, in a bear market, oversold conditions may persist or just lead to some consolidation before more downside. Dr. Cat then alluded to Quinten’s chart, which he said showed what daily oversold conditions led to one year earlier in different broader market conditions. The analyst cautioned that he wasn’t discussing whether Bitcoin is in a bull or bear market or where it is headed, but simply clarifying the misconception about oversold and overbought RSI.  BTC’s Supply Overwhelming Demand At The Moment In an X post, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju revealed that Bitcoin’s supply is currently greater than its demand at the moment, providing a bearish outlook for the flagship crypto. This supports the idea of BTC being in oversold conditions right now, with holders selling their coins rather than buying.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms This Bullish Pennant On Daily Chart That Could Trigger Rise To $137,000 Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently revealed that whales have been taking profits during the recent Bitcoin rally, offloading over 29,000 BTC since April 9. It is worth mentioning that Ki Young Ju recently asserted that Bitcoin’s bull market is over, noting that the flagship crypto is witnessing significant selling pressure.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $84,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to stabilize above the crucial $80,000 support level, a new warning from market analyst Leviathan has raised concerns about an alleged strategy by China that could significantly impact the leading cryptocurrency.  China’s ‘Secret’ Bitcoin Strategy In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Leviathan claimed that China plans to sell off its Bitcoin holdings, potentially driving the price down to $40,000. According to the analyst, this move is just the beginning of a broader scheme. Despite the Chinese government’s public stance against cryptocurrency trading, local authorities have found a workaround, he alleges. The expert asserts that they have been quietly cashing in on confiscated Bitcoin, which has led to an “underground fiscal strategy” that operates in “legal ambiguity.” Related Reading: TRUMP Memecoin Unlock Set To Release 40 Million Coins This Thursday Currently, Chinese authorities are reported to hold approximately 194,000 BTC, making them the second-largest government holder of Bitcoin, just behind the United States.  Leviathan highlights that while the Chinese government publicly denounces cryptocurrency, it simultaneously benefits financially from its underground sales.  Local governments are reportedly improvising their strategies, with some engaging private tech firms to liquidate the confiscated Bitcoin on offshore exchanges. Others, allegedly maintain a more “clandestine approach.”  The expert provides an example of a relatively unknown company in Shenzhen, Jiafenxiang, that has allegedly facilitated over $400 million in crypto sales on behalf of various city governments, converting the proceeds into yuan and transferring the funds back to local finance departments. Hong Kong Emerges As Potential Haven For China’s Confiscated BTC In 2023, China witnessed a record surge in crypto-related crimes, with over $59 billion tied to illegal activities and more than 3,000 money laundering cases prosecuted.  Amidst this backdrop, local governments are increasingly reliant on the revenue generated from fines and confiscations — a significant portion of which comes from liquidated cryptocurrencies.  However, the need for funds is at odds with the government’s public anti-crypto stance, forcing officials to offload coins abroad through intermediaries while hoping for minimal interference from Beijing. There have been discussions among judges, lawyers, and police about the need for a consistent national policy regarding seized cryptocurrencies. Some have proposed that the central bank take control over these assets, while others have suggested establishing a sovereign crypto fund.  Related Reading: Trump’s World Liberty Financial Teams Up With DWF Labs For $25M WLFI Token Investment Leviathan has pointed to Hong Kong, which, with its more favorable legal framework for cryptocurrencies, has emerged as a potential destination for China’s Bitcoin stockpile. This situation presents a unique challenge for China, as the contradiction between its public denouncement of cryptocurrencies and its private profit from them becomes increasingly apparent.  As the US moves toward legitimizing cryptocurrencies at the federal level, including discussions on strategic reserves under President Donald Trump and his ongoing support for crypto, China may find itself compelled to respond, the expert asserts. Ultimately, Leviathan said that the fate of China’s 194,000 Bitcoin holdings will not only shape national policies but could also send ripples across the global financial landscape.  At the time of writing, BTC trades at $84,800, registering a 5% surge in the weekly time frame.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price action in recent weeks has been mostly highlighted by a trading range between $80,000 and $85,000, with a struggle to reclaim buying pressure. Despite the current lack of a strong bullish momentum, many crypto analysts are banking on a bullish continuation and a new Bitcoin price all-time high before the end of 2025. According to crypto analyst TradingShot, Bitcoin could be approaching the final leg of this bull cycle, predicting a peak above $125,000. However, this analysis comes with a caveat that an extended bear market might roll in by October 2025. Long-Term Bitcoin Cycles Hint At Imminent Peak TradingShot’s analysis, which was posted on the TradingView platform, is based on over a decade of symmetrical Bitcoin market behavior that shows both bull and bear cycles unfolding in consistent timeframes. According to TradingShot, the bull cycles dating back to 2015 have all lasted approximately 1,064 days, or 152 weeks, with each cycle topping out almost exactly three years after the previous bottom. On the other hand, bear cycles have consistently lasted for around one year, either from December to December or November to November. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following Analyst’s Prediction For Bullish Breakout, Here’s The Target This historical symmetry is reflected in the chart below, which highlights three bull cycles followed by three bear periods, all forming a repeating pattern. The most recent bottom, recorded on November 7, 2022, marked the start of the current bull cycle. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach its next peak in the week of October 6, 2025.  The bull cycle has led to Bitcoin breaking above $100,000 and now with an all-time high of $108,786, but like many others, the analyst predicted this peak will still be broken this year. This peak will likely mirror the explosive rallies that ended the 2017 and 2021 cycles and eventually surpass $125,000. Sell Everything In October 2025, Buy Back In October 2026 TradingShot’s primary advice is blunt but strategic: sell everything by October 2025. According to the analyst, this window could be the final opportunity to exit near the top before the next bear cycle takes hold. Counting 1064 days from the most recent bottom of $15,600 in November 07 2022, gives a time estimate for the next cycle top on October 6 2025. If history repeats itself, the subsequent bearish phase will likely last for 12 months and bottom out around October 12, 2026, before the next bull phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Stalls Below $85,000 Psychological Level, Why A Drop To $74,000 Is Possible This timing is not speculative; it’s based on a consistent one-year bearish phase across three full market cycles. Therefore, it would be better to sell before October 2025 and start accumulating by October 2026. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,500, up by 0.9% in the past 24 hours and 48% away from the predicted peak of $125,000. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be trapped beneath the gravitational pull of forced deleveraging, but macro strategist and Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin insists that the clearing of risk books is no more than “the prelude to an incredible trade once the degrossing is over.” In a thread on X, Jauvin stitches together fiscal arithmetic, global liquidity metrics and the geopolitics of trade to argue that the next great impulse for BTC will arrive when capital flows that have underpinned US asset dominance reverse and re‑seed risk appetite abroad. Bitcoin Amid The Trump Chaos Jauvin begins by borrowing the empirical backbone of Michael Howell’s work. “Bitcoin is primarily driven by global liquidity,” he writes, citing Howell’s Granger‑causality tests that give liquidity an eleven‑week statistical lead on spot prices. Equity‑style beta “is a spurious correlation,” Jauvin argues, because US equities have merely been the channel through which global dollar liquidity has expressed itself since pandemic‑era deficits swelled Treasury issuance and household incomes at once. Putting numbers to the claim, he notes that the United States has “run a substantially higher fiscal deficit as % of GDP than any other country,” a gap that “mechanically leads to higher inflation, higher nominal GDP, and therefore higher top‑line revenue for corporations.” By extension, the S&P 500—and increasingly Bitcoin—have monopolised incremental risk capital. “Because of this dynamic, US equity markets have been the dominant marginal driver of risky asset growth, wealth effect, global liquidity, and therefore a vacuum for global capital to go where it’s treated best: the USA.” Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1 Million? BPI Says One US Move Could Make It Happen Jauvin’s inflection point is the Trump campaign’s declared ambition to compress the trade deficit and prod allies into heavier fiscal outlays for defence and infrastructure. “The Trump administration wants to lower trade deficits with other countries, which mechanically implies a decrease of US dollars flowing to foreign countries that will not be reinvested into US assets,” he writes. A paired objective is “a weaker dollar and stronger foreign currencies,” achieved as foreign central banks lift rates and investors repatriate funds to harvest that carry. He sees the genie already inching out of the bottle: “Trump’s shoot‑first, ask‑questions‑after approach to trade negotiations is leading the rest of the world to unshackle themselves from their meagre fiscal deficits … I believe nations will continue with this pursuit regardless.” If foreign governments embark on deficit‑financed rearmament and industrial policy, the marginal growth in global liquidity would migrate out of Washington and into Europe and Asia. “As the US continues to pivot from a global capital partner to a more protectionist one, holders of US‑dollar assets will begin to have to increase the risk premium associated with these previously pristine assets and have to mark them with a wider margin of safety.” Why Bitcoin, And Why After The Sell‑Off Jauvin frames the present turmoil as the necessary purgation of crowded positions: “The first trade is to sell US‑dollar assets that the entire world is overweight and avoid the degrossing that is ongoing.” Margin exhaustion forces funds to raise cash indiscriminately, pinning Bitcoin to tech beta for now. But, he insists, the second phase will favour assets unburdened by national accounts or tariff risk. “During rotational market days and non‑margin‑call days, we’ve started to see this dynamic take shape. DXY down, US equities underperforming ROW, gold soaring, and Bitcoin holding up surprisingly well.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Pressure As Report Flags Chinese Sell-Off Plans Gold has already responded, he notes. Bitcoin, by contrast, “hasn’t kept up with gold’s outperformance” because its high‑beta reputation keeps systematic traders on the sidelines. That sets up the asymmetry: “For me, a risk‑seeking macro trader, Bitcoin feels like the cleanest trade after the trade here. You can’t tariff bitcoin, it doesn’t care about what border it resides in … and provides a clean exposure to global liquidity, not just American liquidity.” Crucially, Jauvin anticipates a visible break in the co‑movement with US tech once non‑US fiscal stimulus becomes the leading source of incremental liquidity. “I’m seeing the potential for the first time … for Bitcoin to decouple from US tech equities,” he writes, conceding that the idea has hurt many before but arguing that this time “we are seeing the potential for a meaningful change in capital flows that would make it durable.” If the thread’s logic holds, the present stress is the mandatory downstroke before a secular re‑rating. “This market regime is what Bitcoin was built for,” Jauvin concludes. “Once the degrossing dust settles, it will be the fastest horse out of the gate. Accelerate.” At press time, BTC traded at $84,766. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A new report by Reuters suggests that China may be looking to liquidate large stashes of confiscated Bitcoin, potentially exerting downward pressure on BTC’s price. Sources cited by Reuters indicate that local Chinese governments have been engaging private companies to convert seized Bitcoin into cash, in an effort to bolster public finances under strain from a slowing economy. Chinese Authorities Could Offload 15,000 Bitcoin The Chinese ban on Bitcoin and crypto trading stands in tension with these liquidation efforts, prompting legal experts, senior judges, and law enforcement officials to call for clearer regulations. Reuters quotes Chen Shi, a professor at the Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, who described these disposals as “a makeshift solution that, strictly speaking, is not fully in line with China’s current ban on crypto trading.” Chen attended a seminar earlier this year alongside various government officials to debate potential changes to the rules, underscoring the urgency of creating a consistent framework for handling seized virtual currencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1 Million? BPI Says One US Move Could Make It Happen China’s existing lack of transparency in dealing with confiscated digital coins has fueled concerns about corruption and emboldening further crypto-related crimes. The Reuters report highlights an alarming rise in such offenses: money involved in Bitcoin and crypto-related crimes surged to 430.7 billion yuan (roughly $59 billion) in 2023, reflecting a tenfold increase according to blockchain security firm SAFEIS. Further underscoring the scale of the issue, the country’s top procurator has recorded 3,032 people sued for Bitcoin and crypto-related money laundering last year. While Beijing forbids crypto trading and refuses to recognize digital tokens as legal tender or valid assets, the Reuters investigation points to a parallel reality where local governments rely on proceeds from these forced liquidations. Jiafenxiang, a Shenzhen-based technology company, reportedly sold cryptocurrencies worth more than 3 billion yuan in offshore markets on behalf of various municipal authorities in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. The US dollar proceeds from these transactions were then exchanged for yuan and transferred to local finance bureaus. Debate on potential reforms has unfolded at a time of heightened tensions between China and the US amidst Donald Trump’s second presidency, a period marked by the former American president’s push to deregulate cryptocurrencies and build a strategic BTC reserve. Guo Zhihao, a lawyer based in Shenzhen, believes China’s central bank should consider a similar strategy for seized Bitcoin and crypto assets, suggesting that “China’s central bank is better positioned to handle the cryptocurrencies, and should either sell them overseas or build a crypto reserve from seized tokens like Trump plans to.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Undervalued? Analyst Breaks Down Bullish On-Chain Metrics Other legal analysts, such as Sun Jun from Shanghai Landing Law Offices, see lucrative opportunities for private firms that help local governments dispose of large crypto holdings. Sun, however, stresses the importance of robust guidelines and vetting procedures, urging China to clarify the legal status of these tokens, set up a centralized disposal system, and regulate the entities involved. According to Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at NYU Law School and former managing director of China Investment Corp, a more centralized approach would help the country “maximize the value of the seized cryptocurrencies,” possibly through a crypto sovereign fund in Hong Kong, where digital trading is permitted. The potential for Beijing to retain some of these seized assets has also fueled broader speculation, particularly since China’s local governments collectively held an estimated 15,000 Bitcoins, making the Chinese state one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders worldwide. Observers note that part of China’s crypto holdings likely originates from the country’s crackdown on illicit activities, including the high-profile PlusToken Ponzi scheme, which led to the seizure of 194,775 Bitcoin. According to crypto intelligence firm Arkham, these tokens were transferred to the national treasury in November 2020, though it remains unclear whether the holdings have been sold or remain in China’s possession. At press time, BTC traded at $84,071. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price appears to be moving in lockstep with a bullish prediction made by a crypto analyst earlier this month. According to the analyst’s forecast, Bitcoin is set to break out to a new all-time high above $120,000 following the announcement of a temporary tariff pause by United States (US) President Donald Trump.  $120,000 Bitcoin Price Forecast In Motion Kaduna, a crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter), has released a follow-up analysis on his previous bullish prediction of Bitcoin, highlighting that it is playing out as expected. On April 11, the analyst predicted that Bitcoin was preparing for a massive push above $120,000.  Related Reading: Trump’s Tariff Pause Could Push Bitcoin Price Above $100,000, Pundit Reveals Exit Point He outlined a thesis that the 90-day suspension of President Trump’s Tariffs would act as a powerful macroeconomic catalyst for Bitcoin. Kaduna argued that the market may start “frontrunning” about a month early, culminating in a mini bull market during a 55-day “exit window” between April 3 and June 3 2025.  Accompanying this bullish analysis was a detailed chart comparing Bitcoin’s price movements through candlesticks with a blue overlay, believed to represent a macroeconomic indicator such as global M2. The blue line in the chart projects a steady climb during this window, offering a clear visual target above $120,000. Kaduna had stated that if his prediction played out, he would exit most positions by the end of the window.  Just days after his bullish forecast, Bitcoin has begun mirroring the projected path. Kaduna revealed in a follow-up candlestick chart that Bitcoin is breaking above the local resistance at $84,000 with strong volume support, aligning with the predicted overlay. This early strength suggests that the frontrunning behaviour the crypto expert projected earlier is now playing out in real time.  The blue line suggests a potential move toward the $120,000 – $125,000 range over the next month and a half, setting a clear upside target if momentum continues. Bitcoin’s price action is also unfolding right on cue within the 55-day window, validating the analyst’s bullish thesis. Both the overlay and Bitcoin’s prices are trending upwards, signaling that the market is indeed reacting to the macroeconomic tariff catalyst. If this trajectory holds, it would mark a significant validation of the analyst’s macro-technical analysis approach.  Update On The Bitcoin Price Action Following its crash below $80,000, the Bitcoin price seems to be on a path to recovery. CoinMarketCap’s data reveals that Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,395, marking a significant 7.16% increase over the past week.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms This Bullish Pennant On Daily Chart That Could Trigger Rise To $137,000 The cryptocurrency had broken the resistance level at $84,000 earlier this week. However, it retraced sold gains and is now trading at its present market value. Given its fluctuating price and unstable market, crypto analysts like Tony Severino have revealed that he is neither bullish nor bearish on Bitcoin. Instead, he seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring how the market responds to ongoing volatility driven by the US Trade war and tariff implementation. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

In the latest installment of the “Bitcoin Policy Hour,” a weekly podcast produced by the nonprofit Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), leading members of the organization discussed how a single policy decision by the United States government might catapult the price of Bitcoin to extraordinary new highs. According to Executive Director Matthew Pines, the world’s monetary framework has remained largely the same since 1973, when the global financial system pivoted away from a full gold standard. “When you think about the monetary system we currently live in,” he said, “it’s been around since 1973 and gone through a number of crises and evolutions, but the fundamental structure of it really hasn’t changed.” He then pointed out that because nations such as China have emerged as industrial, military, and financial heavyweights, the stability of that long-standing dollar-based system is under challenge in ways not seen in decades. Head of Policy Zach Shapiro added that concerns about losing trust in the US dollar and its reserve asset—the US Treasury security—have fueled discussions around alternatives. “If you want to talk about what else could be a reserve asset,” he said, “gold is an obvious candidate.” He added that since the United States froze Russia’s Treasury reserves last year, “there has been a feeling from central banks around the world that treasuries are becoming less of a neutral reserve asset… and so foreign governments have been stacking gold.” That could clear some runway for Bitcoin to replace or supplement gold’s historic role—especially if the Trump administration announces their first Bitcoin buy. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Pullback Mirrors 2017’s Path To Parabolic Highs, Says Analyst When asked about the longstanding policy idea of “marking gold to market” and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, Shapiro explained that formally revaluing America’s statutory gold price—still set by law at around $42 per ounce even though world markets trade gold above $3,200—could generate what he called a “large surplus on Treasury’s books that we could then spend on stuff.” He mentioned that if those proceeds were directed into Bitcoin, “it would be a one-time trick that adds almost a trillion dollars to our balance sheet on paper. But why are we doing that and why do we think now is the time?” Pines emphasized the global implications. “The gold certificates are a subplot in this larger strategic competitive dynamic,” he said, referencing ongoing trade friction and technology restrictions between the US and China. “When you have the great powers of the world deciding they’re going to up the ante against each other, you’ll see moves in many domains: tariffs, export controls, currency systems, and yes, monetary assets such as gold and Bitcoin.” Discussion then turned to a White House executive order issued in March that formalized the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and instructed agencies to conduct a Bitcoin audit, with results due to the President’s Working Group on digital assets. Pines noted that “it literally said Bitcoin is digital gold, is in our strategic interest, and that we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” even though, in his words, “people outside the US government at first questioned whether that was real or just a campaign promise.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: What Experts Anticipate Following The Jump Toward $85,000 Shapiro confirmed the White House did indeed require each agency to identify which digital assets it currently owns from forfeiture or other means. “By statute, they had thirty days to do this,” he explained. “But that report goes to the Secretary of the Treasury and the President’s Working Group, not necessarily the public.” While the White House order also urged budget-neutral methods of acquiring new Bitcoin, no single agency has yet outlined exactly how they intend to do it. Both Pines and Shapiro said that internal government debates, as well as confusion about what “budget neutral” means, might slow implementation. “It can’t impact other budget line items,” said Shapiro. “But tariffs, for instance, are not something that costs the American taxpayer money directly, and that’s one way that’s been floated to raise funds for Bitcoin. Selling assets already on the government’s balance sheet is another. That’s budget neutral too.” If the Trump administration does indeed buy Bitcoin, the price implication could be massive, according to the BPI. Shapiro stated: “If the United States announces that we are buying a million Bitcoin, that’s just a global seismic shock. I think that really is a big deal. I think first the Bitcoin price goes through the roof. I think we will probably go very quickly to something like a million dollars per Bitcoin.” However, the geo-political could be even greater, Shapiro added: “Then you have to wait and see what sort of dominoes fall from that. What are the second order effects of Bitcoin, just being monetized on a faster trajectory than I think a lot of people anticipate. The first is a sort of reaction from other nation states’ reactions […] I suspect that Bitcoin being monetized that strongly and that quickly would have a negative impact on sort of the long-term outlook for gold.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,594. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin open interest has remained on the high side despite the price declines, suggesting that interest in the leading cryptocurrency by market cap remains abundant. This interest is no doubt a good thing for the crypto market, especially in the long-term. But looking back at previous trends involving the Bitcoin open interest, it is concerning that the value is still so high and this could hinder a recovery for the Bitcoin price from here. Bitcoin Open Interest Still Above $56 Billion Data from the Coinglass website shows that the Bitcoin open interest is still quite high and not far off from its November 2024 highs after the BTC price hit a new peak above $109,000. This consistently high open interest signifies traders still taking considerable positions in the digital asset despite its price falling over 20% since then, something that could be a hindrance to recovery. Related Reading: Analyst Who Called Dogecoin Price Rally In 2024 Predicts 300% Rally In April The total Bitcoin open interest is currently sitting at $56.17 billion, falling approximately 22% from its all-time high of $71.85 billion. This shows a close correlation between how much the price has fallen compared to the open interest. However, the open interest remaining this high could have some negative implications for the BTC price and the crypto market by extension. For example, looking at the chart above, it is obvious that Bitcoin has seen its largest moves upward when the open interest has been low. This suggests that the lack of market pressure gives bulls the space to push the price upward. Hence, with the open interest still so high, it could be much harder to push the price higher. Given this, the BTC price could see further decline before there is more recovery from here. BTC Price Crash Below $70,000 Imminent? Besides the Bitcoin open interest remaining high, a crypto analyst has also given reasons why the BTC price could see a crash from here. The first factor given is the fake bullish divergence. According to the analysis, the RSI may be showing a bullish divergence but the price action isn’t following it. Hence, this could lead to a bull trap, pulling traders into losses as the price crashes. Related Reading: Is The XRP Price Mirroring Bitcoin’s Macro Action? Analyst Maps Out How It Could Get To $71 Another factor given is the fact that the Bitcoin price has broken a trendline support after falling to the low $80,000s. This suggests that bullish momentum is weakening and the recent recovery might not hold. Given the factors listed above, the crypto analyst expects the Bitcoin price to fall another 20% from here. The target is placed at $69,149, which is an all-time high from 2021. “This level coincides with the intersection of the mid-channel support line and horizontal price structure,” the analyst explains. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

In an investor note dated April 15, 2025, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, shared an examination of Bitcoin’s recent trading patterns that may surprise both critics and supporters. “Bitcoin is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if only macro obstacles would get out of the way,” he wrote. According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s price on April 14 hovered around $84,379, compared to $84,317 a month earlier—a minuscule change of 0.07% during a 30-day window. This flat performance emerged against the backdrop of two significant geopolitical events: the United States announcing the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and President Donald Trump imposing sweeping tariffs on countries around the globe. The resilience that Bitcoin has shown during this period stands in stark contrast to the broader downward trend in traditional financial markets. Hougan pointed out that the S&P 500, which peaked on February 19, has lost 12.0% of its value, with Bitcoin down a comparable 12.4% since that date. He found this alignment astonishing, particularly because it departs from Bitcoin’s behavior during past market downturns. In the 2022 correction, for example, the S&P 500 slid 24.5% while Bitcoin plunged 58.3%. Similarly, at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, stocks fell 33.8% but Bitcoin sank 38.1%, and in late 2018, when escalating trade tensions between the United States and China dragged equities down 19.36%, Bitcoin declined 37.22%. This track record had historically reinforced the notion that, when stocks took a hit, Bitcoin would invariably suffer a far steeper pullback. Related Reading: Bitcoin Lags Gold As Wall Street Doubts Persist, Claims Expert In his latest note, Hougan emphasized how different the present situation feels. Instead of being battered well beyond the equity market’s turbulence, Bitcoin is now mirroring stock losses closely. He acknowledged that this alone does not make Bitcoin an unequivocal hedge asset, adding, “Critics will point out that matching stocks’ performance during a downturn is not the same as acting as a hedge asset, and that gold has been a better performer than Bitcoin during this pullback. That’s true.” Nonetheless, he argued that Bitcoin’s ability to stay around the $80,000 mark while global markets churn is a testament to its robust staying power in the face of multiple macroeconomic shocks. “If that doesn’t give you confidence in its staying power, I don’t know what will,” he remarked. Hougan’s view is that we are witnessing a transitional phase in Bitcoin’s evolution. He explained that the cryptocurrency has historically been driven by two competing forces: it has served as a risk asset, associated with significant upside potential and high volatility, yet it has also occasionally taken on the role of a hedge similar to gold. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Pullback Mirrors 2017’s Path To Parabolic Highs, Says Analyst In Bitcoin’s early days, the risk-asset angle tended to dominate; in major equity sell-offs, investors often shed Bitcoin faster and more aggressively than they exited stocks. Now, with more corporations integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, institutional investors exploring it as part of diversified portfolios, and governments—like the United States—incorporating it into strategic reserves, there appears to be a gradual tilt toward Bitcoin being treated more like “digital gold.” . Still, Hougan warned that investors should not overlook the inherent unpredictability in the current macro environment. He noted that equity markets may not yet have found a bottom, raising the possibility that deeper slides could re-expose Bitcoin’s vulnerability if broader panic sets in. He also conceded that gold’s performance remains a more classic example of a safe-haven behavior during systemic shocks, meaning Bitcoin has not conclusively demonstrated that it can replace traditional hedges during intense economic strain. Even so, in his words, “The world is unraveling, and Bitcoin is trading above $80,000.” Hougan underscored that there is no guarantee this dynamic will endure, particularly given the unpredictable repercussions that could stem from sudden tariff escalations or shifts in monetary policy. As he concluded in his note, “Our baby is growing up as a macro asset. And that’s a beautiful thing to see.” At press time, BTC traded at $85,200. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price continues to face headwinds, as the latest report on Digital Asset Fund Flows shows a staggering $751 million in outflows from the digital asset. The sheer volume of this withdrawal raises alarm bells about whether institutions may be cashing out from the flagship cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price Faces Pressure Amid Massive Outflows CoinShares’ weekly report on Digital Asset Fund Flows has disclosed a massive $795 million in outflows from the crypto market—shockingly, $751 million of which came from Bitcoin alone. This mass exodus marks one of the largest single-week outflows of the year, and it comes at a time when the price of Bitcoin has hit a wall. Related Reading: $9.41 Billion In Shorts At Risk Of Liquidation If Bitcoin Price Hits This Level James Butterfill, the Head of Research at CoinShares, revealed that since early February 2025, digital asset investment products have suffered cumulative outflows of approximately $7.2 billion, effectively erasing almost all the year-to-date inflows. Notably, this week marks the third consecutive week of declines, with Bitcoin leading the downturn and recording the most significant losses among major digital assets.  As of this report, net flows for 2025 have dwindled to a modest $165 million, a sharp drop from a multi-billion dollar peak just two months ago. This steep decline underscores a cooling sentiment among institutional investors and highlights a growing sense of caution amid ongoing market volatility. Currently, the Bitcoin price is struggling to regain past all-time highs, with recent outflows serving as one of the many barriers hindering the cryptocurrency’s breakout potential. Until these outflows reverse and the market stabilizes, Bitcoin’s path to setting new all-time highs remains challenged.  Despite losing $751 million in outflows, Bitcoin still maintains a moderately positive position with $545 million in net year-to-date inflows. However, the sheer scale and speed of the latest outflows raise concern. The fact that Bitcoin suffered such a massive withdrawal signals a potential shift in sentiment among institutions. Whether it’s due to profit-taking or macroeconomic uncertainty, this move suggests that big players are beginning to pull out — at least in the short term.  In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum saw $37 million in outflows, while Solana, Aave, and SUI also posted losses of $5.1 million, $0.78 million, and $0.58 million, respectively. Surprisingly, even short Bitcoin products, designed to benefit from market downturns, weren’t spared, recording $4.6 million in outflows.  Tariffs And Political Volatility Drive Outflows One of the key drivers behind the pullback across digital assets is the rising economic uncertainty sparked by tariff policies that have adversely influenced investor sentiment. The wave of negative sentiment began in February after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on all imports coming into the country from Canada, Mexico, and China. Related Reading: Trump’s Tariff Pause Could Push Bitcoin Price Above $100,000, Pundit Reveals Exit Point However, a late-week rebound in crypto prices was seen after Trump’s temporary reversal of the controversial tariffs, providing a brief respite for the market. This policy shift helped boost total Asset Under Management (AUM) across digital assets from a low of $120 billion on April 8 to $130 billion, marking an 8% recovery. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

In a market update, prominent crypto commentator Rekt Capital examined Bitcoin’s latest dip through the lens of previous bull cycles, asserting that it closely resembles the 2017 pattern of multiple corrections en route to a parabolic top. Speaking in a video titled “Where’s The Bitcoin ‘Banana Zone’? – An Update,” the analyst referred to the “banana zone” as “effectively a term of endearment for the parabolic phase of the cycle when it comes to Bitcoin’s price action.” He described the current retracement as a natural but extended correction, emphasizing that it is “still on track” despite many traders feeling discouraged. Will Bitcoin Enter ‘The Banana Zone’ Again? Rekt Capital drew parallels between the present dip and historical market behavior, spotlighting the cyclical tendency for Bitcoin to experience two or more corrective periods once it breaks into new all-time highs. Citing the 2017 rally, he noted that there were instances of “34% to 38% to 40%” pullbacks, at least four in total, before the ultimate peak was reached. He also referenced 2013’s bumpy ascents and traced them against today’s price movement, explaining that “when we break to new all-time highs, it can get a little bit bumpy” both around old highs and immediately following new ones. Despite the current drawdown of 32% (max height), he maintained that “we’re going to see additional upside after this corrective period like we’ve seen in the past” and classified the market’s present position as part of the first of two probable corrections in the current price discovery phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly RSI Breakout Signals Trend Shift – Is $100,000 Next For BTC? Throughout his analysis, Rekt Capital underscored the importance of patience, noting that what might feel like a prolonged drawdown is not “out of the ordinary” for Bitcoin which historically endures multiple phases of uptrends and retracements on its way to a peak. “What’s out of the ordinary,” he said, “is that it’s taking longer, but it’s going to enable that next price discovery uptrend in the future.” He provided historical context by looking back at mid-2017 and other phases when Bitcoin underwent repeated downturns that ranged from around 30% to 40%. According to him, these corrections often deepen as the cycle progresses, although the final one before the next major move can sometimes be shallower. The analyst also delved into technical indicators such as the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price has begun forming a triangular market structure as it becomes “sandwiched in between the 21-week EMA and the 50-week EMA.” He drew comparisons to the mid-2021 period, when a similar formation preceded a 55% downside move that eventually broke out into another bullish phase. “We ended that period with a weekly close and post-breakout retest of the 21-week EMA into support,” he recounted, predicting that a similar situation could see Bitcoin rally toward the $93,500 level if the move above the 21-week EMA holds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Lags Gold As Wall Street Doubts Persist, Claims Expert In addressing concerns that the market is entering a bear cycle, Rekt Capital asserted that “it’s not a bear market like everybody is saying.” While he acknowledged the emotional toll of large pullbacks and the prevalence of conflicting signals in the media, he advised keeping a level head and focusing on strong indications such as moving-average confluence, historical correction ranges, and the fact that “we’re in this first price discovery correction” rather than any final downturn. According to his outlook, the crypto’s price is still following the overarching blueprint set by previous bull runs, even if it is “a little bit of a deep one” and has disappointed traders hoping for more immediate parabolic momentum. Rekt Capital concluded his commentary by stressing reaccumulation phases are part of a lasting bull-market framework rather than the onset of a prolonged downtrend. At press time, BTC traded at $85,914. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, reclaims the crucial $85,000 mark on Monday, top analysts are projecting heightened volatility in the market for the coming week.  Bitcoin Eyes Key Liquidity Zones Above $90,000 Crypto analyst CrypNuevo provided insights in a recent update on social media site X (formerly Twitter), emphasizing that despite the chaos surrounding tariffs and potential market manipulation, there are key data points and trends to monitor.  The analyst highlighted the importance of liquidity and price action in the days ahead, noting that liquidations are primarily concentrated in the upside range between $90,000 and $91,500—psychological levels for many traders. With Bitcoin gaining 7% on the weekly time frame, potential for a move to tackle these liquidity zones might be expected, further recovering from the cryptocurrency’s crash toward $74,000 experienced last week.  Related Reading: XRP Tests Ascending Triangle Resistance – Can Bulls Reach $2.40 Level? CrypNuevo also mentioned that the current liquidation delta is relatively balanced, with approximately $15 billion in long positions at maximum liquidity. He suggested that a threshold of over $25 billion in liquidations would warrant closer attention.  The analyst’s ideal scenario for the coming week involves price compression between the daily and weekly 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), as of now placed at approximately $86,000, which could lead to a significant expansion in price.  Rising Wedge Formation Analysts often look for patterns in market behavior, and CrypNuevo speculated that a third retest could occur, following the market’s tendency to move in threes.  The analyst alleges that this would further compress prices, potentially leading to a more aggressive breakout later on. He identified a key mid-range support line at $81,000, suggesting that while this scenario may be slightly less likely, it remains a possibility. Another prominent analyst, Ali Martinez, echoed these sentiments on social media, identifying the critical support level for Bitcoin at $82,024, where approximately 96,580 BTC were previously accumulated.  Related Reading: Cardano Could Drop To $0.54 If This Support Gives Out, Analyst Says This zone could be of key support for the cryptocurrency in case of CrypNuevo’s scenario of further retests taking place in the coming days for BTC’s price. However, Ali Martinez also pointed out on social media that BTC may be forming a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a potential retest of the $79,000 support level. While Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $85,000, it still remains over 21% below its all-time high of $109,000, which was reached in January of this year.  However, with the current market sentiment indicating a renewed sense of bullishness, this gap may close rapidly over the course of the month. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price rallying to as high as $137,000. The analyst highlighted a bullish pattern that shows the flagship crypto can reach this ambitious price target.  Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $137,000 As Bullish Pennant Forms In an X post, Titan of Crypto suggested that the Bitcoin price could reach $137,000 at some point. This came as he revealed that BTC has formed a bullish pennant on the daily chart. The analyst remarked that if this plays out, a new all-time high (ATH) could be reached, regardless of the current market sentiment.  Related Reading: This Crypto Analyst Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash At $97,000, He Just Released Another Forecast His accompanying chart showed that $137,129 was the target for the Bitcoin price as it eyes a rally to new highs. The analyst indicated the key was to see if the flagship crypto could break to the upside in the coming weeks. In the meantime, BTC looks to be facing a lot of resistance and bearish pressure. In his Ichimoku cloud analysis of the Bitcoin price action, the analyst stated that BTC is now facing resistance with a fair gap value and entry into the Kumo cloud. He outlined two scenarios that could play out for the flagship crypto. The first is a continuation through the cloud, while the second is a retest of the Kijun and the trendline before continuation.  His accompanying chart indicated that the key was to break above the range of around $84,000. A successful breakout from this range could lead to a rally to as high as $92,000. This could eventually pave the way for the Bitcoin price to rally to new highs, especially with the psychological $100,000 level in sight once BTC reclaims $92,000.  Key Resistance At $86,000 In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that $86,000 is a key resistance zone for the Bitcoin price. He stated that a rejection from this zone could send BTC back to $79,000. However, a breakout might open the path for the flagship crypto to rally to as high as $97,000.  Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000 Crypto whales are still actively accumulating BTC, which is positive for the Bitcoin price. Martinez revealed that 37,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 24 hours, which the analyst noted is a strong signal of accumulation. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital believes that the Bitcoin price structure is still bearish for now. In an X post, he stated that a break above $89,000 would mean BTC is back in action. Until then, he asserted that there is no real reason to get overly hyped at the current level.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $84,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Last week was defined by simultaneous declines in US equities, Treasurys, and the dollar—an exceptionally rare trifecta that macro investor Jordi Visser described as the moment “the system officially broke”—Bitcoin’s price action has remained conspicuously muted. Despite gold rallying over 4% in just a few days, Bitcoin has failed to respond with comparable strength, a divergence that Visser attributes to deep-rooted skepticism from institutional finance. Visser, president and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers and a veteran of over three decades on Wall Street, sat down for an in-depth interview with Anthony Pompliano to unpack what he called a historic rupture in the global capital structure. Central to his thesis is that US government bonds—long considered the most risk-free asset in the world—are no longer behaving as such. “The top of the global capital structure, the safest asset in the world, is falling,” Visser said, referring to US Treasurys underperforming even against other sovereign debt. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Last Drawdown To $74,000 A ‘Healthy Correction’ — Analyst Says Month-to-date, he noted, US bonds are down over 5%, equities have also dropped more than 5%, and the US dollar index is off by a similar magnitude. “The currency, bonds, and stocks all going down in a panic way—that doesn’t happen. The last time I saw that was in emerging markets,” Visser said, drawing parallels to financial crises he observed firsthand in Brazil during the 1990s. What This Means For Bitcoin The implications for Bitcoin in this environment are complex. While many in the crypto community expected BTC to surge amid macro instability, Visser says Wall Street still views Bitcoin through an equity-like lens. “Wall Street doesn’t believe in Bitcoin,” he said bluntly. “The problem is the view on Bitcoin is that it’s NASDAQ. So I don’t think it should be skyrocketing like gold yet. That happens when we get the printing press turned on again—which is going to have to happen.” According to Visser, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold is not a repudiation of its long-term thesis but rather a reflection of who holds what, and when they’re allowed to act. “Gold’s a different story. Sovereign wealth funds already own it. Central banks already own it. Hedge funds love to buy gold. Bitcoin? Not yet.” He emphasized that Bitcoin’s moment will likely come not amid the crisis itself, but in its aftermath, when monetary authorities begin resorting to aggressive stimulus—what he termed “debasement,” historically the go-to solution in past crises. Visser was adamant that despite Bitcoin’s price inertia, it is in fact doing its job: “Bitcoin is the digital asset of the digital economy.” In his view, the current turmoil marks the transition from a unipolar, dollar-centric world to a fragmented, multipolar one. “We’re entering a new world, and this new system is decentralized,” he said. That transition, accelerated by both geopolitical fragmentation and advances in AI, is unlikely to be smooth. Visser predicts increased volatility and declining trust in legacy financial infrastructure, which could serve as long-term tailwinds for Bitcoin. His analysis ties Bitcoin’s trajectory closely to global liquidity cycles, noting that much of the world’s debt is denominated in US dollars. As such, a falling dollar paradoxically boosts liquidity globally, particularly for emerging markets and risk assets. “Bitcoin will be four to eight weeks—four to 10 weeks—later,” he said, referring to its lagging correlation with liquidity expansions. “You’ll look back eight weeks from now and say, ‘I can’t believe I didn’t see they were going to print to stop this thing.’ They do it every single time.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Buying Again — Can They Push BTC Price Higher? Still, he was clear-eyed about the near-term structural headwinds. Institutional allocators, especially hedge funds, face two major constraints: investor redemptions and prime broker margin requirements. “Wall Street has an embedded side that prevents them from going through it,” Visser explained. “Retail just buys more on the dip. Wall Street can’t.” Even in the face of institutional hesitancy, Visser underscored that the global conversation around trade, capital flows, and currency trust is now permanently altered. “Does the US want to be the reserve currency anymore?” he asked. “From a government official perspective in trade, it’s no longer the reserve currency. The trade deficit has been put in by the administration.” The consequence, he warned, is that the US is now effectively exporting fiscal deficits to other nations as global trade recedes. In such a world—where nationalism replaces globalism and bilateral trust continues to erode—Visser believes decentralized systems will inevitably grow more relevant. “I do think the agreement will end up being that decentralization will speed up from here because of AI and because of crypto,” he said. But he cautioned that while the architecture is being laid, mainstream acceptance remains gated by perception, policy, and institutional adoption cycles. In sum, Visser sees Bitcoin not as a failed safe haven, but as an emergent asset still waiting for its structural breakout moment. Until Wall Street stops viewing Bitcoin as a risk-on tech proxy—and until central banks inevitably revert to monetary stimulus—BTC will remain in the shadows of gold. But he was unequivocal in where he believes it’s headed. “We are getting closer to that day every single day,” he said, referring to the moment when Bitcoin’s role in the global capital system finally clicks into place. As Visser sees it, the system may be broken—but that’s precisely how something new gets built. At press time, BTC traded at $84,689. Featured image from YouTube, char from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price action this weekend has been quite bubbly and impressive, with the premier cryptocurrency reclaiming the $85,000 level on Saturday, April 12. This burst of bullish momentum came after United States President Donald Trump’s exemption of smartphones, computers, and chips from the new trade tariffs. According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin open interest (OI) has also enjoyed a similar level of resurgence in the past day. The Bitcoin price could be gearing up for an extended upward run, especially with the open interest metric on the rise. How The Latest Spike In Open Interest Could Affect The Market In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin open interest has seen a notable upswing in the past 24 hours on the world’s largest exchange by trading volume, Binance. The open interest metric measures the total amount of capital flowing into BTC derivatives at a given time. Related Reading: Fartcoin Dominates Crypto Recovery With 230% Surge, Is This A Good Time To Buy? An increase in the open interest usually indicates that Bitcoin traders are taking up new positions in the futures and options market. On the other hand, when the OI metric is declining, it means that BTC investors are exiting the derivatives market or their positions are getting liquidated. Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s open interest on Binance has increased by a strong 15.8% in the past 24 hours. This surge saw about $1.2 billion flow into derivatives in a single day, growing the OI on the world’s largest exchange from $7.6 billion to $8.8 billion.   Kesmeci highlighted that this rapid rise in Bitcoin’s open interest suggests a substantial build-up of leverage positions within a short period. The Quicktake analyst noted that Binance now accounts for 31.4% of the market, with a total futures OI of around $28 billion. Kesmeci added: Binance isn’t just reflecting the market trend — it’s actively leading it.  The analyst also revealed that such a significant spike in open interest signals heightened activity and increased market volatility, which could lead to sharp liquidations of both long and short positions. Hence, investors might want to exercise caution when opening short-term positions. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $85,240, reflecting a 2.5% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by over 2% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Suffers 77% Crash Against Bitcoin, On-Chain Deep Dive Reveals Reasons Why Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The price of Bitcoin has found its way back above the $85,000 mark, marking a huge success in the recovery from the coin’s latest slump toward $74,000. According to an on-chain analyst, this recent correction might not be as ominous as initially thought and could be part of a broader bull cycle. Can BTC Price Reach A New All-Time High In This Cycle? An analyst with the pseudonym ShayanBTC, in a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, shared fresh insights into the current Bitcoin market dynamics and the implications of the most recent price pullback. This evaluation is based on the Realized Cap of Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands, which analyzes the holding pattern of different investor cohorts. Related Reading: XRP Price To Hit $45? Here’s What Happens If It Mimics 2017 And 2021 Rallies The UTXO age bands metric tracks the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their coins compared to how long they’ve held the assets. In ShayanBTC’s latest analysis, the relevant age bands are the 3 – 6 months and 6 – 12 months cohorts. According to data from CryptoQuant, the percentage of coins held by this class of investors has been on a steady rise. ShayanBTC noted that this climb appears similar to the accumulation patterns observed during the prolonged correction in the summer months of 2024. The Quicktake analyst noted this pattern points to a “holding trend”, where the 3 – 6 months and 6 – 12 months investors are not offloading their assets despite the ongoing market correction. “As more coins move into the hands of long-term holders, the available circulating supply shrinks, increasing Bitcoin’s scarcity,” ShayanBTC added. From a historical standpoint, these supply constraints could be a positive catalyst for robust price rallies, especially when combined with fresh demand. According to ShayanBTC, this market dynamic could set the stage for price discovery and propel the Bitcoin price to new all-time highs. Furthermore, the Quicktake analyst believes that, with the current on-chain structure, there is a reduced likelihood that the Bitcoin market is currently at the start of a bear season. The ongoing drawdown instead seems to be a healthy correction within a broader bullish cycle. Bitcoin Price At A Glance  The Bitcoin price appears to be building some bullish momentum, briefly crossing the $86,000 in the early hours of Sunday, April 13. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $85,200, reflecting an over 2% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is up by about 2% in the past seven days. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Returning To $74,000? Analyst Identifies Pattern That Suggests So Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin could be setting the stage for a major reversal, according to crypto analyst BTCEarth. In a recent post on X, the analyst pointed to a key support zone that continues to hold firm, reinforcing the possibility of a bottom formation.  Notably, the analyst said the price action has “respected the long-standing blue support line”, originally established around the “Trump rally breakout.” Current structure suggests a “possible bottom formation near this zone, supported by volume and historical price behavior.” With volume backing the move and historical price behavior aligning, BTCEarth believes the current structure may mark the early signs of a bullish turnaround for Bitcoin. Impending Price Recovery For Bitcoin? BTCEarth pointed out that the blue horizontal support line on his chart aligns closely with Bitcoin’s early breakout in September 2024. This level has since acted as a crucial support zone, having been retested multiple times throughout the past months. Notably, the most recent price touches at $74,434 and $74,588 appear to have formed another significant bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For W-Bottom Reversal, Says Legendary Trader Bollinger According to BTCEarth, the repeated validation of this support suggests that Bitcoin is building a strong foundation. If this structure holds, it could pave the way for a bullish reversal, especially as momentum and historical price behavior support a potential breakout from this area. BTCEarth also emphasized that Bitcoin is currently trading within a falling wedge pattern. In his chart, Line D serves as the support base while Line E marks the descending resistance. The price action has continued to compress within this narrowing structure, signaling a breakout on the horizon. He noted that a confirmed move above Line E, especially one sustained over multiple daily candle closes, would validate the pattern and confirm a bullish reversal. Such a breakout could set the stage for a stronger upward trend as traders recognize the shift in market structure. Key Resistance And Buying Zones BTCEarth highlighted that the accumulation zone between $74,000 and $75,000 remains intact, offering a favorable risk-reward setup for long positions. The immediate resistance lies at $80,000. Further resistance is found between $86,000 and $88,000, an area of historical consolidation and heavy volume. A breakout above this zone would significantly strengthen Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bullish Fate Hinges On These 2 Resistance Zones – Details Beyond that, he pointed out that the major horizontal resistance near $100,000 remains the ultimate target. This level represents a psychological milestone and a crucial technical threshold. If Bitcoin builds enough momentum to clear it, it could pave the way for a fresh leg up in the long-term bullish cycle. In conclusion, BTCEarth highlighted that Bitcoin is stabilizing above a critical support zone, with the price structure suggesting a potential bottom formation. A breakout above Line E could spark a powerful bullish move toward the $88,000–$100,000 range. However, until this breakout occurs, caution remains crucial, and maintaining a hold strategy is advised. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price had a rollercoaster journey over the past week, falling to its lowest level in six months on Wednesday, April 9. The flagship cryptocurrency showed some resilience, recovering above the $80,000 level after United States President Donald Trump paused trade tariffs on all countries except China. BTC seems to be starting the weekend on a strong foot, returning to above $83,000 in the late hours of Friday. However, the price of BTC appears to be enjoying only a temporary relief, as a prominent crypto analyst has identified a pattern that could decide the coin’s trajectory over the next few weeks.  BTC At Risk Of Another Correction Due To Double Top Pattern In an April 11 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an interesting outlook on the price of Bitcoin following its recent recovery rally. According to the online pundit, this latest surge could be a precursor to another Bitcoin price correction to around the $74,000 level. Related Reading: XRP Price Flashes Symmetrical Triangle From 2017, A Repeat Could Send It as Flying To $30 This bearish prediction is based on the potential formation of the “double top” pattern on the BTC hourly chart. The Double Top pattern is a technical analysis formation that looks like the letter “M”, consisting of two consecutive price tops. The double top pattern is typically a rare appearance on most charts, indicating that investors are looking to book their profits from an extended bullish trend. Hence, the “M” pattern can be a strong signal of trader exhaustion and bearish reversal. Interestingly, the above chart shows that the Bitcoin price just completed a “double bottom” pattern — the opposite iteration of the Double Top — on the hourly timeframe. The double top saw the premier cryptocurrency fall from above $83,000 to around $74,000 in the space of two days. With the price of BTC seemingly topping out around the $84,000 mark, a potential “M’ pattern appears to be forming on the hourly chart. If the Bitcoin price fails to break the resistance around the $84,000, the market leader could be gearing for another price breakdown. It is worth watching out for the support cushion around the $78,000 level, where the BTC price last bounced back to above $83,000. However, a confirmed close below this support region could imply a deeper correction toward $74,000 — a nearly 15% drop from the current price point. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $83,800, reflecting an over 5% price jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Solana Approaches Make-or-Break Level As Technicals And Fundamentals Align – Analyst Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After a dreadful start to the week, the price of Bitcoin appears to be recovering nicely with a strong rally to begin the weekend. The latest on-chain data shows that a specific class of investors might be behind the relative stability experienced by the premier cryptocurrency amidst the recent macroeconomic chaos. Seasoned Investors Are Loading Their Bags Again  In an April 11 post on X, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) might be getting more active in the market over the past few weeks. This on-chain observation is based on changes in the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change (30-day sum), a metric that tracks the net change in the BTC supply held by LTHs over a 30-day period. Related Reading: Ethereum Nears ‘Critical Zone’ Historically Linked To Market Bottoms – Is A Rebound Incoming? This metric basically tracks the aggregated behavior of an important investor cohort, providing an insight into the overall sentiment in the market. When this metric is positive, it implies that the long-term holders are in the accumulation phase. On the flip side, when the net position change is negative, it means that Bitcoin LTHs are trimming their holdings and selling their BTC. According to Kesmeci, the long-term investors have been offloading their Bitcoin in the past six months, as the LTH Net Position Change has remained in the negative zone since the last week of October 2024. The metric reached a negative peak level of 827,750 BTC on December 5, 2025, accompanied by a 32% decline in the Bitcoin price. The chart above shows that the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change shifted to the positive territory on April 6, 2024, and appears to be on the rise at the moment. This positive change signals fresh buying amongst the seasoned investors over the past few weeks. Kesmeci noted that the positive shift of the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change has coincided with a recent 12% jump in the Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin price returned above $81,000 after United States President Donald Trump paused trade tariffs on imports from all countries except China. Kesmeci added in the post: Time will tell whether this is just a reactionary bounce or the early stages of a longer bullish phase. However, the metric continuing to remain in the positive region with acceleration could be an important “trend change signal” for us. Nevertheless, the on-chain analyst urged investors to approach the market with caution, as the current momentum is not sufficient. Hence, further conviction is needed from the long-term investors to sustain a major rally in the current market state. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at around $83,400, reflecting an almost 5% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, BTC has barely changed in the past seven days. However, this record doesn’t quite tell the full story, as the Bitcoin price had fallen to around $74,000 at the beginning of the week.  Related Reading: Kaiko Report Highlights Key Drivers of Q1 Crypto Market Decline and Outlook for Q2 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Legendary technical analyst John Bollinger has highlighted what he calls a “classic Bollinger Band W bottom” that may be forming on the Bitcoin pair BTC/USD. According to him, BTC appears to have found support in the $74,000 area, setting up the characteristic double-dip lows that define a W-shaped reversal pattern. Notably, Bollinger stressed that the setup still needs to be confirmed: “Classic Bollinger Band W bottom setup in BTCUSD. Still needs confirmation”. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? The chart shows Bitcoin navigating a decline from its mid-January high near $110,000, with recent price action clustered around the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The upper band sits at $108,837, while the lower band sits at $77,138, suggesting a relatively wide range of volatility on a weekly basis. The Bollinger’s mid-line is close to $93,000. Related Reading: This Crypto Analyst Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash At $97,000, He Just Released Another Forecast Bollinger’s indication of a W-bottom is based on the formation of two distinct troughs in quick succession, as seen in both the price data and the oscillator readings below the chart. The first trough materialised as BTCUSD fell from its then high of around $90,000 to the mid-$76,000 area, then rallied before sliding back to a comparable support area around $74,500. The repeated dip into this horizontal support level has so far held, which Bollinger identifies as a potential base for a bullish reversal – although he cautions that a definitive move above the intervening swing high near $90,000 would help validate this classic chart pattern. Other market clues include slightly lower trading volumes, suggesting that the intense selling that drove bitcoin down from its recent peak may be easing. The chart’s momentum oscillator, which tracks overbought and oversold conditions, supports this thesis, forming a bottom near its lower border. Although this alignment with price action suggests a possible bottom, many technical analysts are looking for the oscillator to rise convincingly above its midpoint to confirm that momentum has indeed shifted in favour of buyers. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In After Trump’s Tariff Pause? Here’s What To Expect Bollinger bands themselves, invented by John Bollinger, measure volatility by placing envelope lines above and below a moving average. When these bands widen, the market typically experiences large price swings; when they narrow, volatility decreases. In Bitcoin’s case, they’ve remained relatively wide, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s dramatic range from below $20,000 to six figures over the past two years. While talk of a W-bottom has sparked optimism among bullish traders, Bollinger’s reminder that it “still needs to be confirmed” highlights the importance of solid follow-through in price action. If Bitcoin can break above $90,000 on robust volume, the long-awaited confirmation of this pattern would be within reach. Until then, the W-bottom is just a possibility. At press time, BTC traded at $81,366. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Donald Trump’s decision to enact a 90-day pause on his tariffs sent a new wave of buying pressure across the crypto markets, with Bitcoin pushing past the $80,000 price level again. Although the wave of buying pressure is now starting to cool down, the bullish sentiment has already been enacted among some market participants. The question is now on whether this is enough to push Bitcoin back into the $100,000 threshold during this pause period.  Tariff Pause Can Push Bitcoin Towards $100,000 The bullish consensus is that Bitcoin might have created a price bottom during its price crash after the tariffs were initially announced. Crypto analyst Kaduna shared a detailed outlook following another tariff announcement, noting that a “mini bull market” is now in motion. This mini bull market which he noted is in reaction to Bitcoin’s price surge from $75,200 to $83,200 in the hours after Donald Trump announced a pause on the US tariffs against imports into the US from countries except China. Related Reading: Donald Trump’s Tariffs, Bitcoin, And The Crypto Market: Everything You Should Know About Why The Market Crashed With this surge in mind, analyst Kaduna noted in a post on social media platform X that this rapid market reaction might result in a front-running behavior that could begin as early as a month before the 90-day window ends. According to his analysis, the bull run being teased with the global M2 liquidity could begin very early, at least a month earlier than thought. This front running, in turn, could push the price of Bitcoin higher during a 55-day exit window for bullish traders. Interestingly, the global M2 liquidity suggests that any next push from here will be a very strong one that will send the Bitcoin price back above $100,000 and even much more above this level. Analyst Reveals Exit Point Kaduna’s outlook is not only focused on the upside potential but also on timing a strategic exit should the market rally unfold as expected. In his social media post, he revealed that it would be prudent to exit most positions during the next 55-day window between April and June 3, which he believes will capture the peak of this bull phase. After exiting, he would step back from the market and reevaluate conditions later in the summer to scale back in. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Mirrors Global M2 As Crypto Analyst Reveals May Timeline For “Blast Off” Interestingly, the global M2 liquidity suggests that the Bitcoin price can rise from its current price level to reach as high as $120,000 within this time period before any major correction. Such a move will send Bitcoin trading at new price peaks, as it would necessitate a break above its current all-time high of $108,786. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,341.

Charles Hoskinson, who co-founded Ethereum and now leads the Cardano blockchain, has projected that Bitcoin could reach a price of $250,000 by the end of this year or next year. His prediction, made during a CNBC interview, comes despite the recent slump in the wider financial markets including crypto. Why Bitcoin Will Hit $250,000 Within Less Than 2 Years Hoskinson emphasized that rising geopolitical tensions and evolving trade dynamics are creating supportive conditions for decentralized networks like Bitcoin. Speaking on a world that appears to be “moving from a rules-based international order to a great powers conflict,” he suggested this shift would highlight the limitations of traditional banking and trade systems, steering more transactions toward cryptocurrencies. “If Russia wants to invade Ukraine, it invades Ukraine. If China wants to invade Taiwan, it’s going to do that. So treaties don’t really work so well, and global business doesn’t really work so well there. So your only option for globalization is crypto,” Hoskinson told CNBC. He also noted the significant sell-off in crypto and other risk assets, a trend that has partially stemmed from US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on countries worldwide. Bitcoin dipped below $77,000 over the last week before briefly surpassing $83,000 on Wednesday, and remains considerably lower than its record high above $100,000 set in January. Still, Hoskinson’s confidence stands: “No, I think Bitcoin will be over $250,000 by the end of this year or next year.” Among the factors that might drive such a dramatic price surge, Hoskinson pointed to the Federal Reserve possibly lowering interest rates in response to market pressures. “Then you’ll have a lot of fast, cheap money, and then it’ll pour into crypto,” he said, explaining how additional liquidity could lead to renewed interest in digital assets. The potential for big tech companies such as Microsoft and Apple to enter the crypto space also figures into his bullish outlook. Another component of Hoskinson’s optimism lies in the prospect of new legislation. He singled out anticipated stablecoin legislation as well as the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, both of which are currently making their way through Congress. He believes these regulatory moves could streamline the crypto market and pave the way for institutional adoption. Stablecoins, which are pegged to fiat currency and backed by real-world assets, may prove especially attractive to major technology companies looking to facilitate rapid, cost-effective global transactions. “The stablecoin bill in particular could lead the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies to begin adopting the assets,” he added, referring to Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and other mega-cap tech giants. Hoskinson further argued that once these regulatory frameworks become clearer, the market will likely “stall for probably the next three to five months,” before “a huge wave of speculative interest” re-enters the space around late summer or fall. That renewed enthusiasm, combined with a more settled geopolitical landscape and a stable regulatory environment, could, in his view, push Bitcoin’s price as high as $250,000. At press time, BTC traded at $81,138. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has long embodied the boldest institutional bet on the cryptocurrency. Co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor’s unwavering belief in Bitcoin has defined the company’s strategy for years. However, that strategy now faces a challenge after a recent SEC filing hinted at the possibility of MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate some of its Bitcoin holdings under financial pressure and the recent Bitcoin price crash. The implications could ripple beyond the company’s balance sheet and affect Bitcoin’s broader market. Mounting Debt, Negative Cash Flow, And The Bitcoin Lifeline MicroStrategy disclosed several important financial vulnerabilities in a recent Form 8-K filed with the SEC. At the time of filing, the firm reported holding 528,185 BTC, acquired at an average purchase price of $67,458 per Bitcoin, for a total cost basis of approximately $35.63 billion. However, despite the massive size of its Bitcoin treasury, MicroStrategy admitted that its core enterprise software business has not been generating positive operational cash flow. The company is also shouldering $8.22 billion in debt and facing an annual contractual interest burden of $35.1 million. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Bitcoin Price Could See Further Crash If It Falls Below This Level Although it has issued over $1.6 billion in preferred stock tied to substantial annual dividend obligations of $146.2 million, these liabilities are not being met. Instead, MicroStrategy explicitly outlined that it expects to rely on debt or equity financing to meet its obligations, and those efforts may become severely strained if Bitcoin’s price sharply declines. The report warns that if the market value of its holdings drops significantly, it could negatively affect the firm’s ability to raise funds. In such a situation, the company might be forced to sell Bitcoin at a loss. At the time the report was filed, BTC was trading just 13% above the company’s average purchase price. Because Bitcoin forms the majority of MicroStrategy’s assets, its balance sheet is intimately tied to the crypto’s price. As such, a dip below that level could create a chain reaction of falling stock prices and ultimately force selling pressure even on the price of Bitcoin itself.  Michael Saylor’s Response: Staying The Course Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s co-founder and former CEO, is one of the biggest proponents of Bitcoin and was influential in the company’s adoption of a Bitcoin strategy. Taking to social media platform X after the news of the report broke out, Saylor simply tweeted: “HODL,” a popular mantra among crypto purists that signals long-term conviction.  Related Reading: Here’s How Much Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Lost After The BTC Price Crash The post has had over 1.4 million views on the platform and resonated with many bullish proponents, as seen in the comments section. He followed that with another tweet: “Bitcoin is the Best Idea. There is no Second Best.” At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $81,900, up by 6% in the past 24 hours. Even if MicroStrategy were to sell any Bitcoin at this point, it wouldn’t be the first sale of its holdings. Back on December 22, 2022, MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC for $11.8 million under similar circumstances. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The Ethereum price crash to $1,400 has shaken the crypto market, amplifying already volatile conditions. This dramatic price drop comes after a major ETH sell-off by US President Donald Trump’s World Liberty Finance, suggesting that the recent dump may have been a primary catalyst behind ETH’s price collapse. Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed on April 9 via X (formerly Twitter) that the wallet associated with World Liberty Finance, a decentralized finance protocol linked to Trump, recently dumped a significant amount of Ethereum. Interestingly, this sell-off came just before Ethereum’s price crash, raising the question of whether it contributed to the unexpected decline. Donald Trump‘s World Liberty Finance Dumps ETH Launched in 2024, World Liberty Finance is Trump’s controversial digital asset firm designed to rival centralized banking and facilitate the adoption of stablecoins. According to data from Lookonchain, Trump’s World Liberty Finance, which was previously accumulating Ethereum at a low price, is now selling off a large chunk of its holding at a steep loss.  Related Reading: Major Ethereum Whale Dumps 10,000 ETH After 2 Years, Is It Time To Get Out? Lookonchain flagged the transaction, noting that the wallet linked to World Liberty Finance had offloaded 5,471 ETH tokens worth roughly $8.01 million. The sell-off was executed at a price of $1,465 per ETH, a significant drop from its previous value of over $1,600.  Notably, World Liberty Finance’s ETH sell-off move has raised eyebrows across the crypto community. It appears to mark a shift in strategy for a player who was previously known for large-scale ETH accumulation.  According to Lookonchain, the wallet address linked to World Liberty Finance had accumulated a total of 67,498 ETH at an average price of $3,259. This means that the decentralized finance protocol spent a total of $210 million to amass such a large amount of ETH.  At its sell-off price, this leaves the entity sitting on a staggering unrealized loss of around $125 million. The recent sell-off also adds more fuel to the growing uncertainty surrounding Ethereum’s future outlook, as the cryptocurrency’s recent price crash has sparked even more bearish predictions of continued decline.  Although the reason behind World Liberty Finance’s unexpected ETH sell-off remains unclear, some believe that the dump was likely triggered by Ethereum’s ongoing price decline, while others suggest it could signal a market bottom.  Ethereum Price Crash To $1,400 Ethereum’s price decline to $1,400 came as a shock to the market, making it the first time the cryptocurrency had fallen so low in seven years. Notably, Ethereum was not the only leading cryptocurrency that was affected by the market turmoil, as big players like Bitcoin also suffered losses. Related Reading: Ethereum Goes Head To Head With XRP: Analyst Says ETH Will Outperform For This Reason Currently, Ethereum seems to be recovering slightly from its previous low and is now trading at $1,591 after jumping 7.44%. Although this recovery brings hope of a rebound, the cryptocurrency’s value has still dropped by 16.63% over the past month. Moreover, technical indicators from CoinCodex highlight that sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency is still deeply bearish, suggesting that further declines could be on the horizon. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price crash from $97,000 in late February surprised most crypto market participants but not this analyst. The crypto analyst known as Doctor Profit, who previously warned of a correction when Bitcoin was approaching $97,000, recently released a new technical outlook that dissuades a bullish trajectory in the short term. In a breakdown shared on the social media platform X, Doctor Profit noted that the breakdown isn’t complete yet. This outlook comes from a former detailed analysis in which the analyst highlighted various Bitcoin price movements to watch out for, all of which have come to pass. Doctor Profit Says Bitcoin Market Dump Is Just Beginning Bitcoin has experienced ups and downs in the past few days with incredibly volatile movements. These ups and downs saw the Bitcoin price fall below $75,000 at the beginning of the week before spending the past four days on a recovery path towards $80,000. Amidst the price volatility, crypto analyst Doctor Profit clarified that he expects the current downward move in Bitcoin’s price to extend further. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000 In a recent post on social media platform X, the analyst described the correction as a “market massacre” that is expected to continue, stating that the party just started. He revealed that he had placed his first buy orders within the $58,000 to $68,000 range, suggesting that the Bitcoin price would keep falling until it reaches this region. Rather than seeing the recent decline as a setback, the price action is a calculated part of the broader strategy which the analyst laid out in an earlier detailed analysis.   Doctor Profit’s analysis is based on the M2 money supply, a macroeconomic metric he believes is widely misunderstood within the crypto space. Many traders have recently cited the uptick in M2 as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, assuming that more liquidity means an immediate surge in prices. However, the analyst stressed that timing is everything. He noted that Bitcoin tends to front-run traditional markets when responding to M2 increases, but even then, the reaction is not instantaneous. What To Expect With BTC He reminds his followers that in July 2024, he predicted a 50bps rate cut, which was considered highly unlikely at the time. Once that cut materialized in September, around the same time Bitcoin was hovering near $50,000, he labeled it extremely bullish and called for a major rally. As it turned out, the M2 money supply began expanding in February 2025, which aligned with his forecast. Yet, he cautions that while M2 is now climbing, its effect on Bitcoin will play out gradually. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Mirrors Global M2 As Crypto Analyst Reveals May Timeline For “Blast Off” Looking at Bitcoin’s price behavior on the charts, Doctor Profit shifted his focus to the $70,000 to $74,000 range. He believes this range could either serve as a springboard for a fresh upward rally if a strong daily close occurs above the “Golden Line” around the weekly EMA50 or as a signal for a deeper downside if the price breaks beneath it.  Should a more dramatic breakdown occur, the analyst advised scaling back and waiting for even lower entries around the $50,000 to $60,000 zone. Doctor Profit predicted that the bull run will not resume until sometime around May or June, with upside targets of $120,000 to $140,000. Bitcoin has managed to push above $81,000 after Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his ground-breaking tarriffs. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,000, up by 7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged more than 8% to reach a high of $83,588 following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs for over 75 countries, excluding China. Investors and market analysts viewed the move as a signal of relief, reflecting hopes that the rapid escalation of tariffs would abate, at least temporarily. Yet President Trump simultaneously hiked the tariff rate on China to 125%, indicating that the trade battle between the world’s two largest economies remains far from settled. Trump’s decision to pause most of his newly announced tariffs was tied to concern over disruptive shifts in the bond market. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which had soared to a seven-week high, remained elevated after the tariff pause was revealed. Despite the temporary relief for many countries, the immediate tariff hike on China highlighted the ongoing stalemate, suggesting persistent uncertainty for global markets. Some analysts see the surge of risk assets, including Bitcoin, as partly driven by changing expectations around future negotiations. Potential China Deal Not Priced In For Bitcoin Amid this backdrop, Joe McCann, founder, CEO, CIO, and solo managing GP of the crypto fund Asymmetric, voiced his perspective on X, observing that the market was originally pricing in tariffs for China, EU and the entire world, but is now only pricing China. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns He indicated that a deal with Beijing remains unpriced, so if a breakthrough emerges, the market “explodes” higher. “Market was priced for China, EU and everyone else getting tariffed. Market now pricing only China. Market not pricing a China deal,” McCann remarks. He also notes that “the explosion on the long end is risk parity pods blowing up,” referencing abrupt market movements in long-duration bonds. McCann sees the current environment as reminiscent of the market bottom during the COVID period, with funds starting to re-gross positions and short-sellers covering. He highlights the possibility that if the yuan strengthens against the dollar, it would likely mean China is prepared to negotiate, implying that equity and crypto markets may be trading too low. “But today, long only funds re-grossed and shorts covered.Trump has signaled max pain for China and is willing to negotiate. Market can only re-price higher. If the Yuan rallies against the Dollar tonight, that is likely a sign China wants to negotiate, which means the market is mispriced (too low). UST 30Y auction tomorrow should see further indirect bids – same story as today,” McCann writes. “Not Out Of The Woods Yet” Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, cautioned that the environment remains fragile, noting on X that weakened yuan dynamics, a still-robust 10-year yield above 4%, and ongoing credit concerns at spreads beyond 400 basis points persist as potential headwinds. According to him, “[this] will be an unpopular opinion […] we are out the woods yet […] the net outcome is still negative for risk assets,” especially if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as previously anticipated. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst: 33% Chance Bitcoin Already Topped—Brace For $52,000 He cited this lack of monetary support as a factor that amplifies volatility. “If anything its actually more concerning how little liquidity is in the market to experience casino swings like this,” he writes via X. X user Adam Yoder agrees that “bonds still went up today, gold went up,” suggesting there are still enough safe-haven flows to keep traditional investors wary of riskier assets. Park concurred, suggesting “this is actually kind of a horrible move” and expressing confusion over what the White House hopes to achieve with a partial pause that leaves China alone to bear the brunt. Meanwhile, in a swift reversal of its earlier call, Goldman Sachs withdrew a recently announced recession baseline after the 90-day pause was confirmed. Its revised outlook, published by Jan Hatzius, maintains that total tariffs—both the existing 10% and anticipated sector-specific rates of 25%—will still be implemented, but that the market has been spared an immediate global escalation. Goldman now returns to its previous non-recession baseline forecast of 0.5% Q4/Q4 GDP growth in 2025, a 45% recession probability, and three successive 25-basis-point “insurance” cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, July, and September. According to the statement, “we continue to expect additional sector-specific tariffs” and an overall rate that could approach the 15 percentage-point increase Goldman had initially anticipated. All Eyes On Today’s CPI Release Notably, today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2025 is scheduled to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 8:30 ET – a big report for the market which could be crucial for BTC’s next move. The CPI for February 2025 showed a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 2.8% (not seasonally adjusted), with a month-over-month (MoM) rise of 0.2% (seasonally adjusted). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 3.1% YoY. This marked a slight cooling from January’s 3.0% YoY headline rate, suggesting a gradual disinflation trend. Expectations for the March CPI are to potentially drop to around 2.5% YoY, with some analysts suggesting it could even fall to 2.6% or lower if trends in housing costs, rents, and energy prices continue to ease. Core CPI is anticipated to hover around 3.0% to 3.1% YoY, reflecting persistent pressure from services and shelter costs. At press time, BTC traded at $81,438. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Since Bitcoin failed to hold above the $100,000 psychological barrier earlier this year, its bullish momentum has gradually unraveled. The pullback has deepened over the past two months, with Bitcoin trading between $75,000 and $79,000 in April. The bullish prospect is becoming very weak, and the crypto sector is searching for technical clarity amidst a buildup of pressure across traditional markets, especially with equities. Given the situation, crypto analyst Tony Severino noted that the current setup offers one major move that could invalidate an extended bearish momentum. Tony “The Bull” Identifies Important LMACD Inflection Point To Reject Bearish Hypothesis According to Tony “The Bull” Severino, the most important chart development is the incoming bearish crossover on Bitcoin’s 1-month LMACD indicator. The LMACD, which tracks market momentum on a logarithmic scale, currently shows the blue line drifting toward a crossover beneath the orange signal line. Related Reading: Crypto CEO Reveals Why The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over With Crash Below $80,000 This kind of intending crossover is known to be an important bearish confirmation, and its appearance has coincided with growing weakness across broader markets, including traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Although the crossover has not yet been confirmed by a monthly close, its presence at the open of April is enough to stir concern. Severino explained that unless a significant rally occurs before the end of the month, the blue line will cross below the orange line, and momentum will officially turn bearish.  If the month closes with the crossover intact, it will mark the first confirmed bearish momentum shift on the LMACD since the bullish reversal in July 2023. Bitcoin Bulls Still Have A Window To Flip The Outlook Before April Ends According to Tony Severino, this crossover is not the sole reason for leaning bearish on Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory, but it stands out as the most precise technical marker that could trigger a rethink. The crossover isn’t isolated to the Bitcoin price chart. Severino highlighted that the same bearish crossover was already confirmed last month in major indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, the crossover has already shown up in the BTCUSD versus GOLD chart, further supporting the idea that Bitcoin is no longer moving in isolation but reacting to widespread macro pressures. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price 1-Month Stochastic: Expert Warns Investors To Stop Comparing BTC To 2017 Moves Despite the bearish tilt, the situation is not yet final. The current crossover is provisional, meaning there’s still time for bulls to reverse the signal. A powerful upward move this month could cause the blue LMACD line to diverge higher, reestablish upward momentum and invalidate the bearish setup before it solidifies. The analyst also noted this possibility of a rebound considering the current oversold levels. This is because oversold technical conditions generally creates the kind of environment where a dramatic reversal is possible.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,260, down by 2.23% and 8.93% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The bond market, often regarded as the bedrock of global financial stability, is showing signs of severe strain, with market participants on X sounding the alarm over what many are calling a “broken” system. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, a prominent voice in financial analysis, published a stark warning on X: “Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind.” Bianco highlighted the severity of the situation, noting that the 30-year US Treasury yield spiked 56 basis points in just three trading days since Friday, a move he described as historic: “Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind. […] The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%. This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET. This sentiment was echoed across the platform, with Cathie Wood of ARK Invest stating, “this swap spread is suggesting serious liquidity issues in the US banking system. This crisis is calling out for some kind of Mar-a-Lago Accord on free trade, in tandem with serious support from the Fed? No more time to waste.” Similarly, Daniel Yan, the founder and CIO of Kryptanium Capital, a managing partner at Matrixport Ventures warned, “First, we have a tariff driven equity meltdown. Then the bond basis started to unwind and looks ugly now. The last straw is the credit market – if we starts to see the HY index above 6%, then probably an emergency Fed intervention is at the corner, or, a real crisis.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Crashes 17% as Whales Scoop Up Supply—Reversal Ahead? Financial journalist Charlie Gasparino added to the chorus, noting, “Now stuff is getting interesting and scarily so; wicked spike in long dated bond yields portends an unwind of a massive trade, possibly a hedge fund losing money and imploding or a major foreigner creditor dumping treasuries in retaliation to Trumps trade war, none of which are good. I’m sure Scott Bessent’s phone is ringing off the hook right about now. Buckle up for the open” Financial commentator Peter Schiff added, “As I warned earlier, the Treasury market is crashing. The yield on the 10-year just hit 4.5%, and the yield on the 30-year just hit 5%. Without an emergency rate cut tomorrow morning and the announcement of a massive QE program, tomorrow could be a 1987-style stock market crash.” Macro analyst Alex Krueger agrees: “The long bond is crashing. US long interest rates are now considerably above Trump’s inauguration day. That’s how Trump & Bessent shooting themselves in the foot looks like. With a shotgun.” What’s Happening? At the heart of this turmoil supposedly lies the basis trade, a leveraged strategy employed by hedge funds to exploit price discrepancies between Treasury futures and the underlying bonds. Bianco posits that this trade, which ballooned in popularity during years of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing, may now be in a full unwind. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns The rapid deleveraging has caused bond prices to plummet as yields spike, eroding the safe-haven status of US Treasuries. As yields soar to 5.00% the implications for the broader financial ecosystem, including the Bitcoin and crypto markets, are profound. This development is particularly alarming at a time when financial markets are already reeling from President Donald Trump’s newly announced global tariff regime. Trump’s tariffs have exacerbated fears of inflation and a recession. Notably, the bond market’s dysfunction is not occurring in isolation. Crude oil prices have collapsed by 21% since what Bianco refers to as “Liberation Day,” falling to $57 per barrel, the lowest level since April 2021. This simultaneous crash in bond prices and crude oil is unprecedented, signaling broader systemic stress. Implications For Bitcoin And Crypto For the Bitcoin and crypto markets, this upheaval presents both risks and opportunities. Bitcoin and other digital assets have often been touted as hedges against traditional financial instability, yet their performance in recent months has shown a growing correlation with risk assets like equities. As S&P futures tumbled by -12% over the past 4 trading sessions amid the bond market rout, BTC is down -8% as it faces a spillover effect. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which has risen since Thursday’s low, indicates net foreign buying into US markets, countering speculation that China is offloading Treasuries to “punish” the US over tariffs. Bianco argues that if China were indeed selling Treasuries en masse, the dollar would likely be declining, not appreciating. This suggests that the primary driver of the bond market sell-off is domestic, likely tied to the forced liquidation of leveraged positions rather than foreign intervention. Amid this turmoil, calls for Federal Reserve intervention have grown louder. Some market participants on X have speculated about the possibility of an emergency rate cut to stem the bleeding, something which could be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. “Is it foreigners dumping? The basis trade blowing up? Inflation fears? No one knows for sure. But look past the “why,” and it all leads to the same fork in the road: Fed intervention—or net interest expense blasts through $1 trillion,” Bitcoin expert Sam Callahan writes via X. As reported earlier today by Bitcoinist, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin could benefit significantly from the Trump administration’s push toward a weaker dollar. Bitcoin commentator Stack Hodler added via X: “This isn’t 2008. It’s worse. The Global Sovereign Debt bubble is bursting right in front of us. Two options: Total collapse… OR the Fed buys everything, institutional credibility hits new lows, neutral reserve assets gold & Bitcoin take the treasury safe haven bid and full send.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,952. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. “I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle,” Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. “I’m not calling for this to be the top in the cycle,” he clarified, “but I’m saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance.” Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. “In the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often.” Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. “We are now… 29 months into the cycle,” he said, “so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.” Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. “There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.” In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic. “With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.” The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. “If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.” Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. “I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down to $48K or lower.’” Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. “I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital… and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes.” At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com