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Bitcoin and XRP have become central to a bold corporate shift in Japan, with AltPlus announcing that both digital assets will be formally incorporated into its long-term treasury strategy. The publicly listed company disclosed the move in its recent shareholder filing, outlining a multi-layered plan that positions cryptocurrencies as foundational components of its future financial and operational framework. Bitcoin And XRP Lead Treasury According to a post by “BankXRP” on X (formerly Twitter), AltPlus is expected to purchase and hold Bitcoin and XRP through a newly established cryptocurrency purchase and management division. The company frames this step as part of a long-horizon capital strategy supported by blockchain transparency, expanding global regulatory clarity, and the growing institutional acceptance of digital assets. In the filing, Bitcoin and XRP are highlighted for their scarcity, decentralization, predictability, and fast, low-cost transactional capabilities—attributes AltPlus expects will contribute to long-term value growth and broader financial-market utility. Related Reading: XRP Price Is Performing As Expected; Analyst Reveals What Comes Next Moreover, the treasury initiative is designed to strengthen the company’s financial base, diversify revenue streams, and establish a stable earnings engine through staking-based income. AltPlus presents the move as a structured method to enhance capital efficiency and reinforce corporate value over time. The company notes that holding both Bitcoin and XRP aligns its balance-sheet strategy with emerging global trends in digital-asset management and institutional-grade treasury practices. AltPlus also outlines its risk-management system to address crypto-market volatility, liquidity risks, cybersecurity threats, regulatory changes, and speculative trading patterns. The company plans to implement investment-scale limits, a controlled holding-ratio strategy, and a proprietary internal asset-management system to govern acquisition, custody, tracking, and treasury integration. These measures are designed to maintain governance discipline, ensure compliance, and safeguard digital-asset operations as part of the broader corporate structure. AltPlus’ Web3 And Digital-Asset Expansion Beyond treasury allocation, AltPlus frames Bitcoin and XRP as key elements in a broader transition into digital-asset operations and Web3-enabled business development. The filing situates this shift within a global context, noting that major financial institutions and listed companies worldwide are increasingly incorporating crypto assets into holding, settlement, and capital-management functions. Related Reading: Are Dogecoin Whales Leaving The Meme Coin? Large Transactions Crash To 2-Month Lows Building on this trend, AltPlus plans to integrate blockchain infrastructure into its Entertainment and Solutions business. This includes exploring Web3 functionality, token-based engagement models, and digital-asset utilities across its gaming and IP ecosystem. These initiatives are intended to unlock new business models, enhance operational flexibility, and develop internal expertise for a digital-native market environment. The company’s decision to include XRP directly in its treasury strategy is one of the standout elements of the announcement. AltPlus positions XRP as a long-term corporate asset alongside Bitcoin, marking a notable step forward for institutional crypto adoption in Japan. Through treasury transformation, staking-driven income generation, and Web3 ecosystem expansion, AltPlus is creating a strategic framework similar to the high-conviction treasury approach seen at MicroStrategy. At the same time, it is establishing a distinctly Japanese model focused on utility, diversification, and forward-looking corporate innovation. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its relief rally since the start of the week, successfully reclaiming the significant $93,000 mark on Wednesday afternoon. This uptick in the cryptocurrency’s price has sparked mixed sentiments among experts regarding its future direction. Analysts Warn Of Resistance Ahead For Bitcoin IG analyst Chris Beauchamp highlighted the cautious optimism among Bitcoin enthusiasts, who are wary after witnessing numerous false recoveries in recent months. He noted that there appears to be a shift in risk appetite within the stock market, which is gradually spilling over into the cryptocurrency space.  However, he pointed out that while last week’s bounce faltered at the $93,000 level, the recent climb above this threshold on Wednesday instills a sense of hope for a more sustained upward movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Goes Live Today: Experts Predict Potential Supply Crunch Ahead Despite this positivity, analysts warn that more resistance levels are likely to emerge as Bitcoin rallies. Jeff deGraaf from Renaissance Macro Research outlined two significant resistance points to watch: the psychological $100,000 threshold and the $107,000 mark, both amplified by descending moving averages.  Adding another layer to the Bitcoin discourse, market analyst CryptoBullet has suggested that the Bitcoin cycle top may already be in place, reached last month above $126,000.  Will Altcoins Bounce Back? In a social media post, CryptoBullet pointed out that the performance of altcoins, measured against Bitcoin, indicates a bottoming out. This scenario, while concerning, is not unprecedented.  CryptoBullet recalled a similar situation in September 2019 when Bitcoin was consolidating about 30% below its top following an intense seven-month rally after a bear market low. At that time, altcoins also reached their cycle low. In the current context, Bitcoin’s rally has lasted significantly longer—35 months compared to the previous seven-month span. Additionally, altcoins have been on a downward trajectory for over four years, effectively more than doubling the duration of their last bear market.  Related Reading: Analyst Says This Needs To Happen For The XRP Price To Rally Again Looking ahead, CryptoBullet anticipates a challenging correction for Bitcoin in 2026, suggesting a bear market could be on the horizon. In the next two to three months, he predicts a potential bounce for altcoins, signaling a liquidity rotation and possibly a “mini altseason” during what he terms a “Dead Cat Bounce” for Bitcoin.  This mirrors the events of 2019-2020, when altcoins experienced a relief rally while Bitcoin was on a downward trend. CryptoBullet indicates that a significant altseason is expected in the next cycle, projected for 2027-2029. At the time of writing, the price of BTC is trading just above $93,000, marking gains of 2% and 3% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

US Senator Cynthia Lummis has reignited speculation that the United States could move to materially increase its Bitcoin holdings, after posting a Bitcoin-themed image on X with the caption: “₿ig things coming for Franklin!” Lummis Revives Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Hype The image is drawn as a children’s book cover titled “FRANKLIN BUYS BITCOIN AND FINDS FINANCIAL FREEDOM.” At the center sits Franklin, a cartoon turtle in a backwards red cap and bandana, seated at a wooden desk. In front of him is a laptop emblazoned with the orange Bitcoin logo, clearly signaling that he is using Bitcoin-related software or services—most obviously, buying or managing BTC. Franklin’s eyes project bright “laser beams” at the screen, echoing the well-known “laser eyes” meme in Bitcoin culture. Related Reading: Bitcoin Blasts To $92,000, Liquidating $182 Million In Shorts On the desk lie physical coins stamped with the Bitcoin symbol, and a glass jar filled with more of these Bitcoin coins. The jar seems to function as a visual metaphor for saving and stacking sats over time. The subtitle “and finds financial freedom” explicitly connects Bitcoin accumulation with the idea of long-term economic sovereignty. Bitcoin-focused accounts immediately interpreted the post as a policy signal rather than a simple meme. Bitcoin Magazine summarized the moment as: “JUST IN: US Senator Cynthia Lummis hints at buying Bitcoin”. Bitcoin Archive went further, claiming: “JUST IN: US Senator Cynthia Lummis hints at a potential US Bitcoin buy. Senator Lummis has recently submitted legislation to have the US government buy 1 million Bitcoin.” Related Reading: Bitcoin And The 2026 Fed Shift: Expert Says Markets Aren’t Ready That reading is consistent with Lummis’ own public rhetoric. On November 5 she wrote via X: “I truly believe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is the only solution to offset our national debt. I applaud @POTUS and his administration for embracing the SBR, and I look forward to getting it done.” Her legislation has pushed for a formal US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and explicitly contemplated the government holding up to 1 million BTC over time. The meme also lands after President Trump’s executive order from March this year establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve framework. While it has become very quiet around the topic, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently attended the opening of the Bitcoin bar PubKey in Washington. For many in the market, those developments, combined with Lummis’ latest post, suggest that concrete steps toward expanding US Bitcoin reserves may be progressing quietly in the background. So far, however, there has been no official confirmation of state-level Bitcoin purchases. For now, Franklin remains a symbolic turtle with laser eyes at a Bitcoin laptop—but in a market hyper-attuned to political signals, Lummis’ image is being read as the clearest hint yet that the United States could one day be the largest sovereign Bitcoin buyer. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $93,381. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is approaching a critical tipping point as two powerful bullish patterns, the Cup & Handle and the Inverse Head and Shoulders, align to signal a potential breakout storm. With momentum building and key resistance levels now within reach, the market is bracing for what could be a major explosive move. BTC Climbs Above 93,160 As Cup & Handle Targets 104,000 Charting BTC on the 4-hour timeframe, analyst Kamile Uray revealed that the price is currently moving above the $93,160 level. Uray is closely monitoring the price, as a successful close above this level would confirm the breakout of a recently formed cup and handle pattern. According to this classic pattern, a confirmed breakout targets the $104,000 level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rallies Into Resistance With Traders Watching for Breakout Confirmation If BTC reaches the $104,000 target without forming a wicking reversal, it would also decisively break the falling blue trendline. Breaking both this trendline and the pattern target would provide strong evidence for the continuation of the overall uptrend. The analyst highlighted that the next major resistances are located at the $98,200 and $107,500 levels. A break above $107,500 and the falling blue trend on the daily chart will serve as the ultimate sign that the long-term uptrend is fully resumed. Uray suggests that retests after the breakout of the pink box ( the handle resistance area) can be evaluated as potential trade entries. The mandatory stop-loss for these trades should be placed at a daily close below the pink box, maintaining strict risk management. Conversely, should the price fail to hold the pink box, the immediate support zone to watch is the $83,822 – $82,477 region below. A bearish scenario is confirmed by a daily close below $82,477, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. In this case, the market would likely seek the next support zone at $74,496 – $71,237, which represents the previous top broken in November 2024. If this zone holds, a major uptrend reversal could be expected again. IH&S Pattern Confirms Reversal Momentum According to a recent update by Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin’s recent price action has confirmed a significant bullish reversal. The asset has successfully surpassed the $87,500 mark and has also broken through the key level of $90,000. This upward movement confirms that the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern has acted as expected, triggering a strong trend reversal signal.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders See First Uptick Since April Lows: Bullish Sign? The analyst noted that the current market structure appears strong because the price increase is being supported by healthy trading volume. With the reversal confirmed, Crypto VIP Signal noted that the next technical benchmark for the market is $95,000, and it will be interesting to see how the price behaves when it tests this resistance point. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Federal Reserve has officially brought its multi-year quantitative tightening program to a close, freezing its balance sheet at about $6.57 trillion after draining more than $2.3 trillion from the system since 2022.  The Federal Reserve’s decision to formally end quantitative tightening has created a sense of anticipation across the crypto market. Liquidity inflows have shaped every major crypto cycle, and removing the multi-year drain on liquidity is expected to set the stage for healthier crypto market conditions and see the Bitcoin price push above $100,000 in the coming days. Policy Shift Meets A Market Still Searching For Direction The Fed has frozen its balance sheet at roughly $6.57 trillion after three years of balance-sheet reduction. Treasury runoff has stopped on December 1, though mortgage-backed securities will continue declining slowly.  Related Reading: Finance Expert Says Bitcoin Price Growth Is In ‘Google 2017’ Phase, What This Means Ending QT means that the Fed is stepping away from the rapid balance-sheet reduction that tightened financial conditions throughout 2023 and 2024. The move comes after bank reserves fell to levels that threatened short-term funding stability, and the Fed made the move to halt any further liquidity drain. Crypto investors are expecting the end of QT to relieve some of the selling pressure that has contributed to the crypto industry in recent months. This is due to historical comparisons of how the industry played out in previous ends to QT.  In 2019, when the Fed last ended QT, digital assets bottomed within weeks and then entered a strong recovery phase. That period represented a decisive low for altcoins and preceded Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $3,800 to $29,000 over the next year and a half. Interestingly, the entire crypto market’s short-term behavior is starting to show signs of bullishness. Particularly, the entire market is up by 7.2% in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin leading the charge. However, cryptocurrencies are facing a different macro environment today, and the outlook is whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can go on another extended bullish rally in the coming months. Why Is Bitcoin’s Reaction Delayed? Ending QT is a meaningful turning point, but it does not automatically flood the system with fresh liquidity. Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, offers one of the clearest explanations for what to expect.  Related Reading: Financial Strategist Debunks Prediction That Bitcoin Price Will Reach $220,000 In 45 Days He noted that in 2019, the Fed announced QT would end on August 1, but the balance sheet continued falling through mid-August because previously scheduled Treasury maturities had not yet settled. It wasn’t until early 2020 that Bitcoin started to experience explosive gains. According to Cowen, the same dynamic applies now.  Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could continue edging lower for a few more weeks, meaning the first meaningful uptick in liquidity may not show up until early 2026. This delay suggests that traders hoping for an immediate boost or a quick return of Bitcoin above $100,000 are simply ahead of the cycle. The tightening phase has ended, but the actual recovery in liquidity has yet to begin. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Tony Severino has revealed a historical bearish pattern that could send the Bitcoin price to as low as $42,000. This bearish outlook for BTC comes amid a rebound for the flagship crypto, with a recent surge above the psychological $90,000 level.  Bitcoin Price Risks 50% Drop To $42,000 Based On This Pattern In an X post, Severino stated that the Bitcoin price likes to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its impulse. Based on this, the analyst indicated that BTC could crash to as low as $42,000 on wave C of this move to the downside. His accompanying chart showed that this decline could happen sometime at the start of next year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Can Hit These ‘Realistic’ Bullish Targets Before The Bear Market Begins This bearish Bitcoin price prediction comes amid BTC’s rebound above $90,000 following the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The flagship crypto has also rebounded amid optimism of another rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows there is almost a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates again this month.  However, despite these macro positives for the Bitcoin price, analysts such as Tony Severino have suggested that BTC is in a bear market and is likely to trend lower in the coming months. In an X post, he highlighted the BTC monthly chart, suggesting it showed a subtle volume breakout that confirmed a “not-so-subtle” trendline breakdown.   Meanwhile, market technician JT described statements that the QT ending is bullish for the Bitcoin price as being a “fallacy.” He alluded to the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may hike rates this month as one of the stressors to liquidity beyond QT.   Peter Brandt Predicts Drop To Mid $40ks In an X post, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin price could drop to mid $40,000. He stated that the upper boundary of the lower green zone starts below $70,000 and that the lower support boundary is in the mid $40,000. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted that BTC could drop to around $50,000 before it then rallies to around $200,000 in the next bull market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The veteran analyst noted that there have been five major bull market cycles for the Bitcoin price since its inception. He further stated that in all previous cycles, the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75% plus correction with no exception. As such, he expects BTC to undergo another significant correction in this cycle, potentially dropping below $50,000.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $93,000, up almost 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Macro strategist Alex Krüger is tying Bitcoin’s next macro chapter directly to the coming reshuffle at the Federal Reserve, warning that investors are underpricing how far US rates could fall under a Trump-aligned central bank. In a long X post titled “2026: The Year of the Fed’s Regime Change,” he argues that “the Federal Reserve as we know it ends in 2026” and that the most important driver of asset returns will be a new, much more dovish Fed led by Kevin Hassett. His base case is that this shift becomes a key driver for risk assets broadly and Bitcoin in particular in 2026, even if crypto markets are currently trading as if nothing fundamental has changed. Why The Federal Reserve Will Dramatically Change Krüger’s scenario is anchored in personnel. He notes that prediction platform Kalshi put the odds of Hassett becoming chair at 70% as of 2 December, and describes him as a supply-side loyalist who “champions a ‘growth-first’ philosophy, arguing that with the inflation war largely won, maintaining high real rates is an act of political obstinacy rather than economic prudence.” A few hours after Krüger’s thread, Trump himself added fuel, telling reporters at the White House that he would announce his Fed pick “early next year” and explicitly teasing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possible choice, after saying the search had been narrowed down to one candidate. Related Reading: The December Bitcoin Roadmap: The Signals You Can’t Ignore To explain how this would translate into policy, Krüger reconstructs Hassett’s stance from his own 2024 comments. On 21 November, Hassett said “the only way to explain a Fed decision not to cut in December would be due to anti-Trump partisanship.” Earlier he argued, “If I’m at the FOMC, I’m more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely,” adding, “I agree with Trump that rates can be a lot lower.” Across the year he endorsed expected rate cuts as merely “a start,” called for the Fed to “keep cutting rates aggressively,” and supported “much lower rates,” leading Krüger to place him at 2 on a 1–10 dove–hawk scale, with 1 being the most dovish. Institutionally, Krüger maps a concrete path: Hassett would first be nominated as a Fed governor to replace Stephen Miran when his short term expires in January, then elevated to chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Powell, he assumes, follows precedent by resigning his remaining Board seat after pre-announcing his departure, opening a slot for Kevin Warsh, whom Krüger treats not as a rival but as a like-minded ally who has been “campaigning” for a structural overhaul and arguing that an AI-driven productivity boom is inherently disinflationary. In that configuration, Hassett, Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman form a solidly dovish core, with six other officials seen as movable votes and only two clear hawks on the committee. The main institutional tail risk, in Krüger’s view, is that Powell does not resign his governor seat. He warns that this would be “extremely bearish,” because it would prevent Warsh’s appointment and leave Powell as a “shadow chair,” a rival focal point for FOMC loyalty outside Hassett’s inner circle. He also stresses that the Fed chair has no formal tie-breaking vote; repeated 7–5 splits on 50-basis-point cuts would look “institutionally corrosive,” while a 6–6 tie or a 4–8 vote against cuts “would be a catastrophe,” turning the publication of FOMC minutes into an even more potent market event. On rates, Krüger argues that both the official dot plot and market pricing understate how far policy could be pushed lower. The September median projection of 3.4% for December 2026 is, he says, “a mirage,” because it includes non-voting hawks; by re-labeling dots based on public statements, he estimates the true voters’ median closer to 3.1%. Substituting Hassett and Warsh for Powell and Miran, and using Miran and Waller as proxies for an aggressive-cuts stance, he finds a bimodal distribution with a dovish cluster around 2.6%, where he “anchors” the new leadership, while noting that Miran’s preferred “appropriate rate” of 2.0%–2.5% suggests an even lower bias. Related Reading: Bitcoin Blasts To $92,000, Liquidating $182 Million In Shorts As of 2 December, Krüger notes, futures price December 2026 fed funds at about 3.02%, implying roughly 40 basis points of additional downside if his path is realized. If Hassett’s supply-side view is right and AI-driven productivity pushes inflation below consensus forecasts, Krüger expects pressure for deeper cuts to avoid “passive tightening” as real rates rise. He frames the likely outcome as a “reflationary steepening”: front-end yields collapsing as aggressive easing is priced in, while the long end stays elevated on higher nominal growth and lingering inflation risk. What This Means For Bitcoin That mix, he argues, is explosive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Hassett “would crush the real discount rate,” fueling a multiple-expansion “melt-up” in growth equities, at the cost of a possible bond-market revolt if long yields spike in protest. A politically aligned Fed that explicitly prioritizes growth over inflation targeting is, in Krüger’s words, textbook bullish for hard assets such as gold, which he expects to outperform Treasuries as investors hedge the risk of a 1970s-style policy error. Bitcoin, in Krüger’s telling, should be the cleanest expression of this shift but is currently trapped in its own psychology. Since what he calls the “10/10 shock,” he says Bitcoin has developed “a brutal downside skew,” fading macro rallies and crashing on bad news amid “4-year cycle” top fears and an “identity crisis.” Even so, he concludes that the combination of a Hassett-led Fed and Trump’s deregulation agenda would “override the dominant self-fulfilling bearish psychology, in 2026” — a macro repricing he insists “markets aren’t ready” for yet. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,862 Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week dropping nearly 10% from the recent highs and retesting the $84,000 area before bouncing. As price risks more downside with early bear market signals, a market observer suggested that the upcoming weeks will be crucial for BTC’s future path. Related Reading: Zcash (ZEC) Leads Market Pullback With 24% Drop, Analysts Warn Of Another Crash Ahead Bitcoin Holds Key Weekly Range Last week, Bitcoin led the brief market recovery, surging from its seven-month low of $80,600 toward the $93,000 area, retesting a key weekly re-accumulation range between these two levels. However, the Sunday correction sent the price back to the range lows, raising concerns about the flagship crypto’s short-term future. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC is stabilizing within its weekly range, holding its position above the $82,000 range low. This area marks the top of an early 2025 liquidity cluster that developed around the 50-Week EMA, where the price has tapped with three downside wicks over the past month. “Last week’s Weekly Close above the Range Low enabled a relief move toward $93,500,” the analyst explained, “but that level acted as clean resistance,” after Friday’s rejection. To the analyst, maintaining stability around the weekly range lows is important because further downside wicking into the cluster is probable. However, he noted that the consolidation structure remains intact as long as BTC’s price continues to hold above the range low in the weekly timeframe. Rekt Capital added that Bitcoin continues to trade below a sharply declining Macro Downtrend that “has been dictating resistance throughout this phase of the cycle.” Per the analysis, “A breakout soon would require reclaiming higher price levels, whereas a later attempt would meet the trendline at lower valuations, narrowing the distance between the current price and resistance.” “In either case, the Macro Downtrend remains the dominant structural barrier, and Bitcoin’s path forward depends on whether consolidation near the Weekly Range Low can bring price closer to a meaningful test of this sharply descending level,” he continued.   BTC’s Vulnerable Technical Environment Raises Alarms Rekt Capital also highlighted that BTC remains below the 21-Week EMA and 50-Week EMA, which could pose a problem for its future price action as the distance between these moving averages continues to narrow. As he detailed, when these EMAs compress and ultimately cross, it tends to precede further downside. Although it usually takes weeks after the crossover for price acceleration to “fully unfold,” it still implies that the crossover risk is increasing. The two EMAs currently represent potential resistance levels on future relief attempts, with the 50-Week EMA retest “leaving room for a future rejection if price revisits it.” Related Reading: Revisiting $85,000: Bitcoin Price Drop Linked To Japanese Government Bonds This position, the analyst explained, places BTC in a “vulnerable technical environment” as “the convergence of the EMAs toward the Macro Downtrend creates a layered zone of resistance that will be difficult to overcome unless price can reclaim one of these moving averages and stabilise above it.” Until Bitcoin successfully turns one of the EMAs into support, “the structure resembles the early-stage clustering seen in prior cycles where EMAs compressed before a broader bearish continuation,” the analyst concluded. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,294, a 2.3% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has opened December 2025 on the back foot, and market structure around the new monthly candle is already drawing close scrutiny from traders. How Will Bitcoin Perform In December? Sharing a year-to-date chart on X, trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted a recurring pattern in 2025: Bitcoin often sets its monthly extreme early. “We know by now that the first move does often create the monthly high or low within the first ~12 days,” he wrote. “This happens about 80% of the months.” His chart marks how February’s low, March’s high, April’s low, May’s low, July’s inflection, and the key October and November pivots all occurred within that window, with June and August flagged as exceptions. December, so far, is conforming in form if not yet in outcome. “Price has taken a quick dive straight from the candle open so far in December, leaving no wick above either,” Daan noted. “This doesn’t make for the strongest high.” That kind of immediate one-sided move, he argues, is often revisited: “Good to watch closely in the 1–2 weeks ahead. Often these instant moves from the open, do end getting retested. October was a good example of that recently.” Related Reading: $56,000 Bitcoin Bottom? Burniske Thinks The Market Still Has To Break Zooming in, Daan’s second chart sets out the key levels. After bottoming near $80,714 on November 21, Bitcoin staged roughly a +15% relief rally into a thick prior support-turned-resistance zone in the low-$93,000s. That first test failed, with price rejected and rolling back over. “BTC rejecting from the previous support & resistance area,” he wrote. “Not something you want to see as a bull. Price saw a decent +15% relief rally but has lost steam again after a week already.” On that same chart he plots a short-term Fibonacci retracement from the $93,175 local high down to the $80,714 low. The 0.786 retracement level sits around $83,381, close to spot at the time of posting. “It is early in the week/month,” he added, “and we do often see sharp moves straight from that new monthly candle. These often aren’t the strongest highs/lows set straight at the start of a new month. So good to watch in the days ahead. (You guys also know I love my .786 fib retests so watching closely around this area).” That leaves a clear tactical map: immediate downside levels around the 0.786 retrace and the prior low, with upside conviction only returning if price can re-enter and reclaim the mid-to-high-$80,000s former support zone. A separate post from Daan situates this setup within December’s broader historical profile. Sharing a Coinglass table of Bitcoin’s monthly returns from 2013 onward, he described December as “pretty mixed but [one that] has seen some big outliers with a lot of volatility.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Largest Hidden-Buying Spike of the Cycle Despite Losing $90K Level The data support that: past Decembers range from large gains above 30–40% to deep drawdowns exceeding -30%. The average December return sits in modest positive territory (+4.75%), while the median is slightly negative (-3.22%), underscoring that there is no simple “Santa rally” effect; instead, dispersion and volatility dominate. For Daan, part of that behaviour is structural. “Don’t be surprised if you see some weird flows at the end and start of the year,” he warned. “Generally this is a period where large holders/funds and such rebalance their books. We might also see the effect of tax loss harvesting at some point.” Those portfolio adjustments and tax-driven trades can magnify moves in both directions, particularly in an asset that still trades with pockets of thin liquidity. His practical takeaway is deliberately conservative: “Good to just be allocated in a way that feels comfortable for you. Whatever the end of 2025 and start of 2026 will bring.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,323. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The prices of Ethereum and Dogecoin have followed a similar trajectory to the Bitcoin price crash as the pioneer digital asset continues to lead the crypto market lower. The muted action from Bitcoin has led to speculations that the market is finally headed into another bear trend after rising over the last few years. In this same vein, a crypto analyst has predicted when they believe that the bear market will really start, and that the current trend could still lead to an eventual pump in the market. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Could Still Pump Crypto analyst ChainShinobi explained what is going on in the market, predicting that the trend could end up going against what investors are expecting at this time. According to the X post, while everyone is currently calling for lower prices, it could lead to another pump that culminates in the final top for the crypto market Related Reading: Dogecoin ETFs Flat At Launch, But TA Points To $1 If This Support Holds ChainShinobi predicts what they refer to as “a face-melter”, the type of rally that no one sees coming and takes the likes of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum to possibly new all-time highs. However, instead of using this time to call for higher prices, the analyst believes that it is the best time for investors to actually get out of the market. This pump, which the analyst refers to as an exit window, could provide investors one final chance to actually get out of the market before another price crash. This is “The moment to lock in massive profit while everyone else is busy blinding themselves with hopium and pushing their targets higher and higher… the same way they dragged their targets lower and lower right now,” the crypto analyst said. The Same Wave Every Cycle As for when the Dogecoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices could move into the next bear market, the crypto analyst tells investors not to expect it until next year. More precisely, ChainShinobi believes that the bear market will fully begin by the end of the first quarter of 2025. Related Reading: XRP Price At A Critical Turning Point: Analyst Maps Out Simple Rules For Breakout When the pump comes, the analyst warns that there could be an influx of bullish sentiment, with bullish news flooding the market. But it is during this time that the market is expected to turn. Essentially, the bear market is expected to begin when investors least expect it. “It’s pretty easy to see what’s coming. You don’t need to overdo TA or PA right now to see the path laid out,” the post read. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

A key long-term indicator comparing Bitcoin to gold has just triggered a signal not seen before in market history. Analysts say such extreme compression typically precedes violent directional moves, and the fact that it’s happening at the intersection of two global safe-haven assets makes the setup even more significant. With BTC outperforming gold for over a decade, this rare signal suggests that the next phase of the BTC vs Gold battle could rewrite long-term market expectations. What Happens After A Historic Squeeze? The Bitcoin versus Gold monthly Bollinger Bands are expanding from the tightest reading in history. A chartered market technician and Bitcoin trader, Tony “The Bull” Severino, revealed on X that the price is currently sitting at the lower Bollinger band, and a decisive close below will trigger a sell signal as the bands expand from a squeeze setup. Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 According to TonyTheBullCMT, this setup creates the potential for a significant trending-down move, which is the first major downtrend on the BTC against Gold chart. This might look the same against the USD, so don’t expect it to translate 1:1 there. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that Gold looks ready to overshadow BTC. If BTC is at % billion in the middle and falling into that lower greenish section, it won’t be a good sign for BTC in this ratio. The weekly Bollinger Bands on this pair were the tightest ever in history, and since they began to expand, BTC dropped over 25% in a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the monthly signal is at least 4x stronger. Bitcoin has been in a brutal downtrend throughout the year. Crypto analyst Zynx has pointed out that BTC is now sitting almost 50% below its all-time high against Gold, and the ratio shows that the crypto king has effectively been in a bear market for an entire year of 2025. Over the last 12 months, BTC has been down 45% against Gold. At this point, it would need to rally 99% to surpass its previous all-time high against Gold, which shows that BTC must hit around $170,000 before it can begin to claim a true bull market. Bitcoin And Gold Ratio Hits A Statistical Low Rarely Reached Bitcoin has reached one of its rarest valuation points relative to gold in more than a decade. An analyst and founder of GREEND0TS, Stacy Muur, highlighted that the BTC/Gold ratio has just dropped below the statistical lower boundary of a 15-year power-law model. Related Reading: Can The Bitcoin Price Explode To $200,000? The Gold Chart That Tells It All Interestingly, BTC has breached this level only once before in late 2017 and snapped back within weeks. Historically, when BTC gets this incredibly cheap compared to Gold, it doesn’t stay cheap against Gold for long. This is not a timing signal; rather, it is a rare statistical anomaly worth watching. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitocin treasury companies continue to accumulate a significant amount of BTC despite current market conditions and now control around 5% of the total BTC supply. These companies are led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Metaplanet, which have recently raised fresh capital to buy the dip.  Bitcoin Treasury Companies Now Hold Over 1 Million In BTC Bitcoin Treasuries data shows that the top 100 public Bitcoin treasury companies currently hold 1,058,929 BTC, while all public companies combined hold 1,061,697. Notably, Strategy is the largest public Bitcoin holder with 650,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s company yesterday announced another 130 BTC purchase for $11.7 million.  Related Reading: Strategy’s Crash Rumors Intensify, CEO Reveals When $46 Billion In Bitcoin Will Be Sold Meanwhile, the second-largest Bitcoin treasury company is BTC miner MARA holdings, which holds 53,250 BTC. Tether-backed Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet, and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company complete the top 5, with 43,514, 30,823, and 30,021 BTC, respectively. Meanwhile, companies like Coinbase, Bullish, and Trump Media are among the top 10 largest BTC treasury companies.  It is worth noting that these public companies account for only a part of the Bitcoin treasuries. Further data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that there is currently 4 million BTC in treasuries as a whole, including the coins held by governments, private companies, exchanges, DeFi platforms, and ETFs.   BlackRock is currently the second-largest Bitcoin holder, only behind Satoshi Nakamoto. Strategy is third on the list, while Binance and the U.S. government complete the top 5, with BTC holdings of 628,868 and 323,588, respectively. The 4 million BTC held by these treasury companies as a group accounts for 19% of the total Bitcoin supply.  Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet have raised new capital amid the recent crash to buy more BTC. Saylor’s company recently raised $836 million from its STRE offering, which it used to buy 8,178 BTC. Meanwhile, Metaplanet raised $130 million to expand its BTC treasury.  More Companies Set To Adopt Bitcoin More Bitcoin treasury companies are set to emerge as $10 trillion asset manager, Vanguard, will start offering BTC ETFs from today. Notably, some companies gain BTC exposure through these ETFs rather than buying Bitcoin directly. On-chain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence revealed that the largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan, holds $300 million worth of BlackRock’s BTC ETF.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price Action With Chinese Astrology Shares When Prices Will Surge Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin treasuries such as Strategy are coming under immense pressure amid the current market downtrend. Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le, admitted that they might have to sell Bitcoin as a last resort to fund dividend payments if their mNAV drops below 1x and they can no longer raise capital.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

After a brief period of consolidation and a bullish uptick to around $93,000 at the end of last week, the Bitcoin price has once again dipped toward the $85,000 mark, recording a significant 7% drop on Monday, according to data from CoinGecko.  Market expert Shanaka Anslem has pointed to what he refers to as “the weapon” behind this latest crash: Japanese government bonds.  Expert Warns Of Unraveling Yen Carry Trade In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the expert highlighted that the yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds reached 1.877 percent on December 1, 2025—the highest level since June 2008—while the 2-year yield hit 1 percent, a benchmark not seen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. He explained that these rising yields have triggered a significant unwinding of what Anslem describes as the largest arbitrage trade in history: the Yen Carry Trade.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Whale Activity Drops To Deepest Level In Two Months With estimates placing the total size of this trade at around $3.4 trillion and figures nearing $20 trillion, he noted that this allowed global investors to borrow Japanese yen at minimal costs to buy a variety of assets, including stocks, US Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, this era appears to have ended last month. The mechanics of this situation are straightforward but impactful, Anslem asserted. As yields rise, the yen strengthens, making leveraged positions increasingly unprofitable.  He suggested that this leads to a chain reaction: selling triggers margin calls, which in turn causes further liquidations. On October 10, $19 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history. By November, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $3.45 billion exit the market, with BlackRock’s IBIT suffering a $2.34 billion loss. On December 1 alone, an additional $646 million was liquidated before lunchtime. Will The Bitcoin Price Plunge To $75,000? This decline has occurred alongside the Bitcoin price correlations with major stock indices, showing a 46% correlation with the Nasdaq and a 42% correlation with the S&P 500.  Anslem noted in his analysis that what was once perceived as an “uncorrelated hedge” has now transformed into a leveraged indicator of global liquidity conditions. Related Reading: Is Strategy Buying Bitcoin Again? Saylor’s ‘Green Dots’ Suggest Yes Interestingly, despite the Bitcoin price collapse, whale investors accumulated 375,000 BTC during this period. Moreover, miners significantly cut back their selling, reducing monthly sales from 23,000 BTC to just 3,672.  As the market looks ahead, the expert asserted that a pivotal moment approaches on December 18 with the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision.  Anslem concluded that if the bank opts to raise rates and signal further increases, the Bitcoin price could test the $75,000 level, which would represent an additional 11% drop for the market’s leading cryptocurrency from current trading levels.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In a turbulent market marked by falling prices, Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dipped below the $85,000 threshold, driven by growing speculation that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be on the verge of selling some of its Bitcoin holdings.  This intensified after a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, during which Strategy CEO Phong Le was directly asked whether the company would consider parting with any of its BTC holdings.  While the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently maintained a resolute stance against selling, Le’s comments have raised concerns about potential sales in the future. Is A Bitcoin Sell-Off Imminent?  Le indicated that if Strategy’s stock trades below the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, selling some Bitcoin could become a necessity.  “If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin… then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained.  While this does not confirm an imminent sale, it visibly places the option on the table, leading to increased speculation about a forced sale as preferred dividend payments approach due on December 31. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing Today Adding to the unease, Strategy disclosed in a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has established a USD Reserve of $1.44 billion to cover these upcoming preferred dividends and mitigate the interest on its substantial debt.  This reserve was funded through the proceeds from sales of its class A common stock under the company’s at-the-market offering program. Such moves have diluted current shareholders and contributed to a nearly 11% drop in Strategy’s stock price. Strategy Downgrades BTC Price Forecast This shift contrasts sharply with the company’s previous forecasts, which predicted that Bitcoin would soar to $150,000 by the end of the year. Strategy has now revised its expectations, projecting prices to range between $85,000 and $110,000.  The forecast for BTC yields has also been revised down to 24% from a previous estimate of 30%, along with projected Bitcoin gains decreasing significantly from $20 billion to $10.6 billion at the midpoint. Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up As Bitcoin’s value continues to plummet, it further unravels Strategy’s financial outlook. Nevertheless, social media experts have pointed to a paradox within the company’s messaging.  AlejandroXBT noted that while Saylor has consistently stated he will never sell Bitcoin, he has been conducting private presentations to clients outlining various strategic approaches, suggesting a potential disconnect between public declarations and private planning. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $84,880, recording major losses of over 7% in the 24-hour time frame.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In a strategic move, Tether has shifted its reserve strategy, reducing its exposure to treasuries while increasing allocations to Bitcoin and gold. The USDT issuer has shown a notable reduction in government debt exposure, paired with an expanded position in hard assets known for durability and independence from traditional financial systems.  Treasury Exposure Drops Amid Changing Macro And Regulatory Landscape Stablecoin giant, Tether, has reduced its US Treasury holdings and increased its Gold and Bitcoin reserves. CryptosRus reported on X that Tether is quietly repositioning itself for what the company expects to be the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next round of rate cuts. Related Reading: Rumble At The Core: How Tether Plans To Dominate The US Stablecoin Market According to BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, Tether’s latest reserve update shows a clear shift away from the US treasuries and deeper into BTC and gold, a sign that the company is positioning for a changing macro environment. Furthermore, the Standard & Poor (S&P) Global noted that Tether is now leaning more heavily into assets with larger price swings in value, warning that this mix could expose USDT if markets turn volatile. Meanwhile, the current S&P Global rating on Tether remains weak. Thus, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has pushed back, saying that the company holds no toxic assets. He claims that its rapid growth reflects a broader shift towards new financial systems that operate outside the traditional banking world. Why Attempts To Break Tether Are Difficult In Practice Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has also offered insight into the Tether Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) as it is making its usual rounds again. The narrative is latching onto the company’s latest attestation, showing a notable shift into Gold and Bitcoin to offset declining interest income. Meanwhile, if these risk assets drop by 30%, Tether’s equity buffer could evaporate, creating an environment where Tether will be insolvent, and panic will kick in. Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans However, Ted is steadfast and believes that Tether has been through a decade of this same FUD, and USDT is still sitting at $1.00. They’re fully liquid, but they operate on a fractional-reserve model, much like traditional banks. As long as redemptions remain normal, everything will work smoothly. A problem will only arise if there’s an irrational panic, and then liquidity stress could hit quickly.  According to Ted, the USDT isn’t fully backed by cash, but it’s backed by a diverse portfolio that includes the US treasuries, yield-generating assets, and some risk assets. This is all scaled to a massive $174 billion stablecoin. “If someone wants to kill USDT, it’s possible, but I highly doubt it,” Ted noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Placeholder VC’s Chris Burniske sees one of the best long-term setups for Bitcoin building in the background – but he is clear that the real opportunity likely lies lower, with a potential test of levels near $56,000 still ahead. On X, Burniske argues that the current sentiment environment is exactly what eventually produces outsized returns, while warning that it is still early for aggressive deployment. “There’s so much pessimism and short-term thinking on crypto assets these days that the R/R is tilting towards optimism and long-term, sized, high-conviction positions in distressed, public, cryptoassets,” he writes. “That said, the time isn’t yet now, imo.” Bitcoin Bear Market Not Over Yet He reiterates a framework he first shared when Bitcoin was trading at $109,000: “I shared my view @ $109K that BTC only starts to get interesting < $75K, and a revisit of the 200W SMA is always possible (~$56K currently, will trend higher), with all of those numbers still representing a mellow bear.” For Burniske, a move into that band – and even a touch of the 200-week simple moving average – would not mean a structural breakdown, but a more orderly, “mellow” bear market reset. He adds a blunt caveat: “Can we go lower? Sure. Pay your taxes and let’s see what 2026 brings.” Related Reading: Analyst Sets Bitcoin Next Target At $95k-$96k – Here’s Why That patience extends beyond Bitcoin to the broader crypto complex. As an example, he highlights Monad’s MON token, where Placeholder is a venture investor. He describes MON as “one of the highest quality teams to launch in the last few years,” arguing it “sits at a tenth of the FDV of previous high-flyers in its category, while having superior tech & design choices across the board.” For him, MON’s price action is symptomatic of the broader reset: “Observing discourse & price-action around MON … shows how much repricing is happening.” Burniske sees that repricing as necessary rather than catastrophic. “More broadly, the vicious repricing happening in crypto is cathartic,” he says. “Everyone is taking their licks, and smart ones will learn and adapt.” In his framework, tokens are “liquid venture,” and the failure rate should be treated accordingly: “Most crypto assets should go to zero — this is liquid venture, what did you expect?” Related Reading: Newbie Bitcoin Whales Capitulating, But Old Hands Stay Silent The flip side is that a small minority of assets will, in his view, be marked down far too aggressively as “babies are thrown out with the bathwater.” For those, timing and conviction matter more than ever: “there are going to be a handful that reprice far too low … and having the conviction, at the right time, to be optimistic when the consensus is pessimistic will once again yield 10-100X’s.” For now, Burniske’s message to would-be Bitcoin bottom fishers is straightforward: the structural risk–reward is improving, but a convincing bottom may still require a deeper break – potentially toward the rising 200-week moving average around $56,000 – before long-term, high-conviction capital truly steps in. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $85,872. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analysts Nik and Doctor Profit have provided insights into why the Bitcoin price is crashing today. The flagship crypto has again dropped below the psychological $90,000 level, sparking bearish sentiments among market participants.  Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing Today In an X post, Nik remarked that the Bitcoin price didn’t dump because of bad news but because the “clock flipped.” He noted that a large number of algos sold off at the same time with the daily close, and also considering that it is a new week and a new month. The analyst added that it is not traders making decisions but portfolios rebalancing in real time.  Related Reading: Finance Expert Says Bitcoin Price Growth Is In ‘Google 2017’ Phase, What This Means Nik explained that with this Bitcoin price crash, inventories have adjusted, hedges have reset, and risk has been flushed from the market. He noted that the candles may look emotional, but that the behavior is mechanical. The analyst also indicated that retail investors may have also dumped their coins out of panic.  Nik stated that time-based algos usually ignite the sell-off, and then everyone is forced to react to their flow. He added that the effect was strong enough today to shake the Bitcoin price, with the crash dragging the broader crypto market along. BTC dropped below $90,000 today, after recovering to $92,000 last week.  Meanwhile, Nik stated that most people usually miss the signs of a potential Bitcoin price crash because they focus on patterns drawn by humans rather than flows controlled by machines. He added that the market doesn’t only react to price but also to time.  Not Yet Enough Liquidity For A Major Crash In an X post, crypto analyst Doctor Profit said that there isn’t enough downside liquidity yet to trigger a major Bitcoin price crash. This is why he expects a sideways range between the current price and the EMA50, around $100,000, in the coming days or weeks. The analyst noted that the two largest liquidity clusters in the short term are at the $97,000 and $107,000 regions.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price Action With Chinese Astrology Shares When Prices Will Surge However, Doctor Profit remains bearish in the long term. He declared that a major move down is planned, but that the script must be followed and that the required liquidity is not yet in place. The analyst told market participants to expect a boring sideways phase with confirmed targets of between $70,000 and $75,000 by the start of 2026.   Doctor Profit reiterated that such moves to the downside for the Bitcoin price take time. He explained that the crash could unfold as a strong drop, followed by a long sideways consolidation, then a fake relief rally, and then the continuation of lower lows.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $85,800, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has issued one of the most dramatic market calls of the year, predicting that the Bitcoin price could crash below $50,000 by 2026. However, he claims that this drop could set the stage for a historic wealth transfer. He says 2026 could become the best year for investors who stay calm and prepare for a major market reset. His reasons are closely tied to the growing economic imbalances and to key US macroeconomic indicators, which continue to tilt deeper into negative territory.  Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash And 2026 Market Reset  A crypto market analyst who goes by the name ‘NoLimit’ on X has shared a dramatic forecast, claiming that 2026 may be the “best year” ever and could see the biggest wealth-transfer event in more than a decade. He anticipates significant volatility in digital assets during this period and predicts that the price of Bitcoin could slip below $50,000, representing a more than 42% decline from its present price above $86,000. Related Reading: Dogecoin Just Suffered An 80% Crash In This Major Metric The analyst outlined several reasons why he believes that 2026 could become the most defining year for investors. As Bitcoin’s price declines to projected lows, NoLimit predicts the broader market will undergo a deep structural reset, which could drive declines across several economic indicators and financial assets.  In his chart, the analyst referenced the widening gap between US assets and liabilities, arguing that the expanding spread is an early signal of structural weakness. That chart highlights a consistent rise in US liabilities from the roughly $30 trillion range in 2016 to above $60 trillion in 2025, while US assets climb more slowly. This gap pushes the net position further into negative territory, which the analyst indicates could trigger a broader correction in traditional markets.  During the projected market reset in 2026, NoLimit anticipates a dramatic decline in US equities, warning that the S&P 500 could lose as much as 40% of its value. He believes that the correction will hit individual companies even harder. In the most extreme cases, he expects some stocks to fall by 50% to 98%, echoing the collapse of many technology firms during the dot-com crash in 2001.  Gold Expected To Surge As Banks Collapse NoLimit has indicated that his projected decline in Bitcoin’s price is expected to contribute to his proposed wealth-transfer event in 2026. While BTC drops below $50,000, the analyst forecasts that gold will skyrocket to $6,500, reflecting a more than 53.6% increase from its current price of around $4,233. Related Reading: Pundit Shares XRP Fact That Will ‘Blow Your Mind’ He also warns that several banks may collapse in 2026. He believes that the recessionary pressure building beneath the surface is far worse than most expect, pointing to sky-high debt, governments and corporations burdened by cheap loans, and the $1.2 trillion commercial real estate loans set to mature between 2025 and 2026. NoLimit has indicated that these projected shifts in both economic indicators and investment assets will strain overextended investors and reward those who preserve liquidity and position themselves during the lowest point of the cycle.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the past week, the Bitcoin price had its best performance since the infamous October 10 downturn, which led to the largest liquidation event in crypto history. The premier cryptocurrency seems to be on a recovery path, returning above the $90,000 mark on Wednesday, November 26. Despite the several calls of the bear market in recent weeks, the crowd has returned with hopes of the BTC bull run resuming. However, a prominent on-chain analyst has come forward with an interesting analysis of the current Bitcoin price outlook. BTC Price To Continue Within $70,000 – $90,000 Zone: Analyst In a November 28 post on the X platform, CryptoOnchain shared an evaluation of Bitcoin’s current price action around the $90,000 level. According to the crypto pundit, recent on-chain data suggests that the market leader is at risk of a rejection at its current price level. Related Reading: Fed To End QT In December: Will Bitcoin Mirror The Massive Price Crash From Last Time? CryptoOnchain highlighted that the Bitcoin price lost a significant support level at $90,000 when it initially fell to around the $80,000 mark a week ago. Now, the price of BTC is looking to make a sustained close above the $90,000 level after bouncing back from the Point of Control (POC) near $82,000. In crypto trading, the point of control (POC) refers to the price level with the highest volume of trading activity within a given period. It basically represents a zone where buyers and sellers are equally matched, leading to the formation of support or resistance. After bouncing from the POC around $82,000, CryptoOnchain said the flagship cryptocurrency has now settled into a “clear” consolidation zone between the $70,000 and $90,000 region. While the Bitcoin price currently sits above $90,000, the analyst noted that the market leader faces potential rejection. This conclusion was drawn from on-chain data, which shows that large amounts of Bitcoin have been flowing into Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume. According to CryptoQuant, the crypto exchange has seen over $2 billion worth of BTC in the past seven days, which could put some downward pressure on the price. Besides the potential selling pressure, there is limited buying power to absorb the extra BTC supply that might hit the open market from sales. CryptoOnchain shared that the net stablecoin inflow on Binance stands at approximately $735 million, which means limited potential demand or buying power. With this “clear supply-demand imbalance,” CryptoOnchain concluded that a rejection from the $90,000 mark and sideways movement within the $70,000 – $90,000 consolidation zone is the likely scenario for the price of BTC. Bitcoin Price At A Glance  As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $91,000, reflecting no significant movement in the past day. Related Reading: Top Analyst Unveils Ethereum (ETH) December Trajectory: 150% Surge On The Horizon? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price has recently stabilized above the $90,000 mark, sparking renewed optimism among bullish investors. Analysts at BTIG have suggested that this rebound could propel Bitcoin towards its ambitious target of $100,000.  Bitcoin Price Positioned For ‘Reflex Rally’ Jonathan Krinsky, an analyst at BTIG, expressed confidence that the Bitcoin price is positioned for a continued “reflex rally,” potentially reaching $100,000 in the short-term.  Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically reaches a bottom around November 26, gaining momentum as the year comes to a close. This seasonal pattern further bolsters the prospects for the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Ready For A Significant Surge To $50: Key Levels Identified Another focal point for BTIG is Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), which the analyst views as a candidate for a mean reversion trade. The firm maintains a buy rating on MicroStrategy with a price target set at $630. The analyst also highlighted that the week of Thanksgiving often aligns with momentum resets for digital assets, reinforcing expectations for a tactical upward movement into December. Reversion Ahead To $50,000 Adding to the optimistic outlook, market analyst Rekt Capital recently mentioned that if the Bitcoin price can reclaim its position above the $94,180 mark, it would flip the 2025 yearly candle into a green one, substantiating theories of a potential rally for the leading cryptocurrency in the waning days of the year.  However, Bitcoin must navigate certain hurdles to sustain this momentum. Rekt noted that for Bitcoin to build on its current prospects and approach the Macro downtrend line, it would require a weekly close above approximately $93,500, turning that level into support, similar to patterns observed in previous green cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Future: The Polarized Predictions Between Bulls And Bears—Who Will Prevail? At the same time, Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, has voiced concerns on social media regarding the Bitcoin price trajectory for the coming days.  He suggested that a typical reversion to around $50,000 might be in the books now, emphasizing Bitcoin’s close correlation with the S&P 500. McGlone pointed out that the S&P 500’s 120-day volatility was at its lowest year-end level since 2017, indicating potential headwinds for Bitcoin. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A crypto analyst has shared a technical analysis for the Bitcoin price, predicting a foreboding crash to $41,000. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has formed an unexpected harmonic “Shark” pattern that could extend its downtrend. While a drop to this low level could amplify the fear and uncertainty already plaguing the market, the analyst highlights that the appearance of this pattern is usually bullish.  Shark Pattern Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $41,000 Crypto analyst Tony Severino disclosed on X this Wednesday that Bitcoin is forming a rare bullish harmonic pattern on the weekly timeframe. Severino warns that rather than worrying about BTC whale activity, traders should not overlook this distinct pattern, describing it as a “Shark in the water.”  Related Reading: XRP 100x Rally To $225: Why The Only Place To Go Is Up In his accompanying chart, the analyst traced the Shark pattern, showing an ABCD harmonic structure. He set his primary target at “D,” which aligns with the $41,000 level. Based on the pattern’s projected trajectory, the analyst believes Bitcoin is likely to face more downside. He predicts that the cryptocurrency could still crash to around $41,000, eliminating more than 55% of its current price of over $91,000.   Notably, Severino highlighted that harmonic patterns, such as the one observed in the BTC chart, often rely on specific Fibonacci ratios. As a result, the figures observed in the current setup are hard to ignore. While his initial projections are significantly bearish, the analyst highlights that a harmonic Shark pattern is traditionally considered a bullish reversal signal once the final leg completes.  Bitcoin’s Next Move Stuck Between Bearish And Bullish Another crypto analyst, Ted Pillows, has shared a technical analysis of the Bitcoin price outlook. However, his report outlines a bearish and bullish outcome depending on how BTC’s price moves in the coming days.  Pillows’ forecast centers on the levels Bitcoin must reclaim to avoid a deeper price correction. Right now, the cryptocurrency is trading above $91,500 after falling by approximately 20% over the past month. Bitcoin has also faced significant negative sentiment despite its recent price recovery.  Related Reading: XRP Has Just Flashed ‘The Real Signal’, Analyst Reveals Where Price Is Headed In his post, Pillows noted that after breaking back above $89,000, Bitcoin is now moving higher, approaching a heavy resistance range between $93,000 and $94,000. The analyst has identified this region as a critical decision point that will determine the cryptocurrency’s next direction.  His chart analysis outlines two potential outcomes. If Bitcoin reclaims and stays above the resistance zone, it could open the door for momentum to push its price above $100,000. Surpassing this threshold could also see the cryptocurrency climb toward $106,000 and $108,000. On the other hand, if BTC rejects the $93,000-$94,000 range, Pillows expects a retreat toward $88,000. Should this level fail as well, he has set a lower support zone between $80,000 and $82,000. Further decline below this range could drag Bitcoin’s price down toward $78,600.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s October flush to $80,000 marked the end of a liquidity-driven reset, not the start of a new bear market – and that the structural forces that pushed BTC down are now reversing. $80,000 Was The Bottom As Dollar Liquidity Turns In a Milk Road Show episode recorded November 26 and released November 27, the BitMEX co-founder argued that the much-celebrated US spot ETF “institutional bid” was largely a leveraged basis trade that has now run its course at the same time as US dollar liquidity appears to have bottomed. “And so that’s why I believe that the $80,000 dip on Bitcoin recently is the bottom,” Hayes said. “And now we’re going to have a supportive liquidity situation, at least marginally on the dollar, and we’re bottom here and can go higher.” Hayes is still openly targeting a blow-off move into the $200,000–$250,000 range by year-end, repeating the call from his recent “Snow Forecast” essay. “I’m going to stick with it,” he said. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter. I’m long, right? I’m still happy either way. It’s either $200k–$250k or not.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst At the time of recording, the host noted Bitcoin was “back above $90K.” Hayes said ETF flow charts that dominated crypto social media in the spring and summer badly misled retail. He pointed to the largest holders of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Avenue, Jane Street – as evidence that the dominant players were not long-only allocators. “These entities are not places where they’re just going to go long Bitcoin,” he said. Instead, they were running a standard basis trade: buying IBIT, pledging it as collateral and shorting CME futures. “They were making, let’s call it 7 to 10% per annum on that trade. They fund Fed funds at four-ish percent and they lever it up.” When the futures basis collapsed following the October 10 liquidation cascade, that trade had to be unwound by selling the ETF and covering futures shorts, flipping net ETF flows from strong inflows to outflows. Retail investors misread that as “institutions turning bearish.” “Retail thinks, ‘Oh no, institutions loved Bitcoin in the summer and now they hate it in the fall, therefore I need to get rid of my exposure as well,’ not understanding what was driving those flows in the first place,” Hayes said. He paired this with a second temporary pillar: listed digital asset treasury (DAT) companies that issue stock or debt to buy Bitcoin. Once those vehicles traded at net asset value or a discount, new issuance became uneconomic and in some cases incentivized selling BTC to buy back shares, removing another marginal buyer. Macro Conditions Are The Key Catalyst Against that micro backdrop, Hayes situates a much larger macro shift. He tracks a proprietary US dollar liquidity index built from Fed balance sheet series and commercial bank data. In his telling, roughly a trillion dollars of liquidity was drained from dollar money markets from July onward due to Treasury General Account (TGA) refilling and Federal Reserve quantitative tightening. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Now Tied To A 2-Year Cycle, Warns Investment Firm CIO In 2023, then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could offset that drain by issuing huge amounts of high-yielding T-bills that pulled about $2.5 trillion out of the Fed’s reverse repo facility back into the system. In 2025, he argues, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had no such reservoir to tap. Now, Hayes says, both the TGA rebuild and QT have effectively run their course. The TGA has been restored to its target zone, and the Fed has halted balance sheet runoff. “We have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart and the direction in the future is higher,” he said, adding that markets are still waiting to see how the Trump administration actually delivers on promises of massive credit creation via industrial policy, bank lending and a more dovish Fed. He expects the next leg of liquidity to come more from commercial banks than the central bank, citing early signs of rising bank lending and public commitments from institutions like JPMorgan to finance large industrial programs. Hayes was equally direct on the October 10 wipeout, calling it a harsh lesson for underprepared leveraged traders rather than a coordinated hunt. “People think that I’m going to get off of work and trade leveraged crypto for a few hours and I’m going to somehow make money. No, you’re going to get liquidated,” he said. “If you are a proper trader, you should not get liquidated. Period.” On positioning, Hayes said he used the post-crash environment to buy what he considers fundamentally strong altcoins like Pendle, Ethena and EtherFi at levels last seen months earlier. He expects those to outperform ETH in the short term but still backs the long-term “institutional DeFi” narrative that could take Ethereum to “the $10,000 to $20,000 price by the end of the cycle.” For now, his core thesis is simple: the ETF basis trade is largely gone, the liquidity drain is over, leverage has been flushed – and the macro tide, in his view, is turning back in Bitcoin’s favour. At press time, BTC traded at $91,004. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has not grown at the rapid rate expected so far in the cycle, and some have blamed this on the fact that the Federal Reserve has been practicing quantitative tightening. This refers to a period when the central bank is reducing its money supply in a bid to reel in excess liquidity. As a result, buying power seems to have fallen as there isn’t enough liquidity flowing into risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, this could all be changing very soon as the Fed begins to change its stance. Quantitative Easing Could Bring About More Liquidity After a long stretch of quantitative tightening, the Fed’s recent comments suggest that there is a move toward quantitative easing. This is expected to happen sometime in December, and it could trigger a massive shift as the market looks to close another year. Quantitative easing, as the name suggests, is the opposite of quantitative tightening, and the former sees the Fed pump liquidity into the market. This rush in liquidity could lead to investors taking more risks, and this, in turn, would be good for assets like Bitcoin as investors move into the crypto market for the long term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The announcement for a move to quantitative easing is expected to come on December 1, and naturally, there have been debates on its impact on the Bitcoin price. Crypto analyst and investor Ted Pillows shared a chart showing that the last time the Fed ended quantitative tightening in 2019, the Bitcoin price had suffered a notable crash. The post suggests that this could be the case as the Fed makes its move in less than two weeks. However, this point has been countered by another crypto analyst, who pointed out the differences between what happened in 2019 and what is going on in 2025. Why This Time Could Be Different For Bitcoin In a response to Pillows, pseudonymous crypto analyst Sykodelic outlined that one of the very first reasons the Bitcoin price won’t crash with the announcement of quantitative easing is the fact that the Fed overdid it in 2019. According to the post, the Fed overdid quantitative tightening, which led to the 2019 repo crisis. Related Reading: Ethereum Price To Recover Or Crash? The Real ‘Leverage Point’ Investors Should Know About However, this time around, while the reserves are low, they haven’t reached danger territory. Also, with a $2 trillion fiscal deficit, the analyst explains that the US will have no choice but to stimulate the economy with liquidity, or else it risks going bankrupt. Since the Bitcoin price already had a major drop, reaching record-breaking MACD levels, the analyst believes the chances of a drop are low. “If you are betting on a year long bear market you are basically betting that the USA will let itself go broke,” the analyst said. “There is simply no room left for the FED to turn.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is showing new signs of strength after its sharp decline, with buyers stepping back in and momentum shifting upward. With price reclaiming key support levels, the path toward the major $98,000 imbalance zone is now back on the table, but bulls still need to prove this rebound has real conviction. FVG Filled, Bearish OB Tagged — What Comes After The Perfect Hit? Crypto analyst Crypto Patel, in a recent market update, noted that Bitcoin has now completed a key technical move by filling the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tapping directly into the Bearish Order Block exactly as previously projected. He emphasized that traders who avoided shorting the $81,000–$85,000 region and instead positioned for the upside likely captured a clean and predictable long setup. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst With that phase now complete, the focus shifts to Bitcoin’s next major target. Patel highlights the $96,800–$98,000 FVG as the upcoming high-timeframe imbalance zone. From a broader perspective, Patel still expects Bitcoin to make a move toward the $98,000 zone before any significant corrective leg unfolds. This aligns with his macro outlook, which continues to favor a final upward sweep into that region before momentum weakens again. However, he also outlines a clear invalidation point for the bearish bias. A sustained high-timeframe close above $107,550 would negate the existing bearish market structure entirely. Such a breakout would signal the start of a new bullish phase for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for a fresh all-time-high trend.  Promising Bounce As BTC Defends the $90,000 Support Zone According to The Boss, Bitcoin’s latest price action is showing early signs of strength. After the sharp decline, BTC reacted firmly at the local support and managed to push back above the $90,000 level, indicating that buyers are stepping in with renewed confidence. The chart now reflects a stable support zone that has held up against downward pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Expert Predicts Price Target Of $40,000 By Late 2026 Part of this rebound appears to be driven by improving macro sentiment. Softer expectations around Federal Reserve tightening, a rise in overall risk appetite, and a shift back toward risk-on assets are all contributing to Bitcoin’s recovery attempt.  From a technical perspective, The Boss notes that Bitcoin must continue to hold above the $90,000–$91,000 range to form a meaningful upward wave from this base. However, caution is still warranted. Without clear confirmation from momentum indicators and sustained trading volume, the current move has the potential to be limited. The possibility of a dead-cat bounce remains on the table, especially following such an aggressive sell-off. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

As the market matures and the broader economic landscape shifts, Bitcoin has once again found itself at a thrilling crossroads, with the entire crypto market watching closely as momentum builds on both sides of the chart. This moment of market volatility is a profound inflection point, where the interplay of rising institutional adoption and changing global macroeconomic conditions is converging. Historical Breakout Zones Align With Price Structure Bitcoin is currently sitting at a thrilling crossroads. In an X post, an analyst known as CryptoCrewU has stated that BTC is witnessing the strongest bearish divergence in years, paired with a rare 2-week close below the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of this bull run. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Flees, But Sharks & Whales Quietly Growing: Data Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently dipping into levels reminiscent of past pivotal moments in 2015, 2018, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 bottoms. Meanwhile, the Stoch RSI has yet to cross upwards, hinting at the full extent of the potential move ahead. While fear is at its peak in the market right now, history shows that buying during these market lows has consistently led to significant profits over the past 5 years. “Let data guide you, not emotions,” CryptoCrewU noted. Trader_XO highlighted that since 2015, one pattern has remained remarkably consistent in Bitcoin’s cycle. Historically, whenever breaks below the 50-week Moving Average (MA), it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200-week MA, or even the 300-week MA. Meanwhile, BTC tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area.  The price has only dipped below the 300-week MA once in history, and anything trading below the 200-week MA has been relatively short-lived, aligning with the best part of the cycle lows. According to Trader_XO, if the price were to revisit those lower moving average levels, and the broader market context aligns, that area would be viewed as a high-probability buying opportunity, unless this time the move is different. Market Structure Shows Early Signs Of Strength Returning Bitcoin is finally showing signs of strength again. A Full-time crypto teacher, Sykodelic, has pointed out that for the first time since the drop from $116,000, the price has broken above its previous low-time-frame (LTF) range, with a strong push above the 50 SMA.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Powers Over $90K as Buyers Suddenly Regain Control of the Trend Since the $116,000 rejection, every time BTC attempts to move into an upper range, it gets rejected and makes new lows. This time, BTC has finally pushed higher. Currently, this is simply an LTF action, but these subtle shifts are exactly what to watch out for when it comes to understanding the nature of trend reversals. A daily close above $87,000 will confirm the breakout of the trend. Sykodelic concluded that moving higher after a drop like that is intricate, and it can take time. Therefore, observe the signs and move accordingly to see how the daily close goes. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Metaplanet, often dubbed Japan’s MicroStrategy for its adoption of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin investment strategy, is nearing a critical juncture as Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below 30% of its all-time highs in under a month.  Metaplanet Bitcoin Holdings Plummet As of November 26, Metaplanet ranks as the fourth largest public Bitcoin treasury company, holding just over 30,000 BTC valued at approximately $2.7 billion, with an average acquisition cost of around $108,000 per coin. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87,700, placing the firm at a nearly 17% loss on its investments. The company finds itself about $640 million underwater, compounded by a steep drop in its stock price, which has plummeted 81% from June highs of ¥1,935 to its current valuation of ¥366 per share on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.  Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Hit Its Bottom? Key On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound Ahead Recently, Metaplanet borrowed an additional $130 million to bolster its Bitcoin holdings, a decision disclosed in a filing on November 21 under a previously established $500 million credit facility announced in late October.  This loan is structured with a floating interest rate that renews daily, allowing for repayment at any point. Importantly, the loan is fully secured by the company’s Bitcoin reserves.  However, market expert Shanaka Anslem has raised concerns on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) about the implications of these maneuvers for Metaplanet’s short-term stability.  Key Dates Approach Anslem highlighted two pivotal dates that the market should closely monitor: December 18, when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on interest rates, and December 22, when Metaplanet shareholders will vote on a proposed $135 million fundraising initiative. The outcomes of these events are intertwined. The expert asserts that if the Bank of Japan opts for tighter monetary policy, resulting in a strengthened yen, Bitcoin prices may decline, potentially collapsing Metaplanet’s stock premium and jeopardizing the fundraising vote.  Conversely, should the central bank maintain its loose policies, leading to a weakened yen but stable Bitcoin prices, the vote may pass, allowing the company to survive. Related Reading: Monad (MON) Price Skyrockets 80%, Emerges As Best Performer Among Top 100 Cryptos This situation holds significance beyond Metaplanet itself. Japan currently lacks a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), making Metaplanet the sole avenue for Japanese investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin via the stock exchange.  This factor contributed to a 4,000% increase in the company’s stock value in 2024; however, the price plunged 81% when Bitcoin dropped by 30% over the past month amid rising selling pressure that has prompted fears of a new bear market among investors. Leverage further amplifies the existing risks. For Metaplanet to break even, Bitcoin must reach $108,000. For their investment model to function effectively, however, BTC must surpass $130,000. If Bitcoin falls below $70,000, Metaplanet may have to sell assets to meet collateral requirements. Anslem further noted:  For now, Metaplanet stands as neither triumph nor failure but as the most consequential experiment in corporate Bitcoin allocation currently running… The hotel company that bet everything on Bitcoin approaches its moment of truth. The world should be watching. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is sitting at a critical crossroads once again, hovering dangerously close to a liquidity pocket that could trigger deeper losses if bulls fail to respond. Momentum has slowed, volatility is tightening, and attention is now locked on one key level that could determine whether BTC stages a recovery or slips further into the trap below $82,000. Key Resistance at $89,000 Remains Bitcoin’s Biggest Hurdle Analyst Lennaert Snyder highlighted in a recent update that BTC is currently locked in a critical fight for the key $89,000 resistance level. He acknowledged the recent price action, noting that Bitcoin had a “nice bounce” from the support box he posted yesterday, advising those who longed for the bottom to “enjoy the gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Sudden Volatility Jump Signals Options Could Be Calling The Shots—Analyst Snyder confirmed that the $86,000 support box is still valid, but stressed that this level should now only be used for reversals. A return to this support would be interpreted as a weak sign, indicating that buyers are struggling to maintain the current altitude. The primary objective remains to break the immediate overhead barrier. Lennaert Snyder states that Bitcoin still needs to decisively reclaim the $89,000 resistance to trigger a meaningful rally and long entries to the next target at $93,000. Given the ongoing struggle at resistance, the analyst confirms that it is “totally understandable” if traders are looking for local short entries. Losing the crucial $86,000 support level would confirm a structural breakdown, triggering shorts to the next major target at the $82,200 rangelow. Finally, Lennaert Snyder warned about the potential for a deeper move, stating that if the market goes for the lows again, it should be treated as a reversal opportunity only. He notes a high probability that sellers will sweep the $80,600 low to “tank new fuel.” Smart Risk First: Analyst Stresses Discipline Over Aggression According to crypto expert and investor Ted Pillows, the current Bitcoin setup is a moment that demands strict risk management. He emphasized that BTC continues to face heavy rejection around the $88,000 resistance level, making this zone a decisive barrier for further upside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Loses Strength, Traders Watch $90K as Last Line of Defense In response to the ongoing uncertainty, Ted noted that he has manually taken partial profits across all open trades. The move is meant to reduce exposure and protect capital until Bitcoin provides a clearer directional signal. With volatility tightening, he believes caution is the smarter play. Ted added that he intends to scale back into his positions only after Bitcoin successfully flips the resistance level into support and holds above the S/R zone. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, the Bitcoin price has broken below the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first time in the current cycle, triggering renewed fears of a deeper decline. With price momentum weakening and long-term trend indicators flashing bearish warning signals, the possibility of a price crash to $38,000 is becoming hard to ignore.  50-MA Breakdown To Trigger $38,000 Bitcoin Price Crash The Bitcoin price action took a decisive turn this week as the market slipped below the 50 MA for the first time in this four-year cycle. Severino noted in his technical analysis shared on X this Monday that the 50 MA has historically marked the beginning of extended downturns. He stated that following Bitcoin’s launch over 14 years ago, every time it has closed below the 50 MA, a prolonged bear market has followed.  Related Reading: Financial Strategist Debunks Prediction That Bitcoin Price Will Reach $220,000 In 45 Days Severino’s price chart highlights BTC’s price performance from 2017 to date. In the past three Bitcoin bear markets, after the price fell below the 50-week MA, BTC continued to drop an additional 61%, 59%, and 67%. On average, the cryptocurrency has lost 62% from the break point.  Applying the 62% drawdown to this cycle’s 50 MA level, the analyst predicts Bitcoin could soon experience a price crash to $38,000. From the cryptocurrency’s current price of above $87,000, this represents a staggering 60% decline. Additionally, it would imply a roughly 70% decline from its all-time high of more than $126,000.  Severino warns that traders calling for a price bottom may be ignoring how far Bitcoin has historically fallen once this long-term trend fails. He indicated that the 50-week MA has repeatedly served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases, and that price slipping below it has more often led to extended periods of weakness and capitulation.    Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Falls To Historic Lows A second analysis presented by Severino focuses on Bitcoin’s daily LMACD, which is now near levels not seen in more than 1,250 days. The oscillator has only pushed below this level six times since BTC’s 2017 macro peak. These past instances correspond to periods of heavy downside momentum where the cryptocurrency had yet to complete its bottoming process.  Related Reading: One Of The Most Popular Bitcoin Advocates Dumps Millions In BTC, Here’s Why Looking at Severino’s price chart, the extended period without revisiting this lower bound suggests Bitcoin may be overdue for a momentum reset. The LMACD indicator’s current reading is also unusually weak historically, signaling that market momentum has not yet reached extreme pessimism.  The readings further indicate that, although BTC remains in a downtrend, price corrections remain possible before a true bottom is established. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading below $87,000 amid volatile, choppy conditions that have contributed to its 24% decline over the past month. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest upward move arrives at a time when confidence in the market remains uncertain, with many traders unsure whether the slight price recovery marks early strength or another temporary bounce. With last week’s pullback still fresh, a crypto analyst argues that most traders may label the recent recovery a dead cat bounce. However, he believes the narrative is misleading and predicts that Bitcoin’s rebound this week may be setting the stage for a stronger rally.  Why The Bitcoin Price Recovery Is Not A Dead Cat Bounce Market analyst and founder of The House of Crypto, Peter Anthony, has released a new technical analysis of Bitcoin that challenges the prevailing bearish sentiment among traders. In his post on X, Anthony stated that the repeated claims of a dead cat bounce are part of a recurring pattern that has appeared at multiple stages of previous Bitcoin price recoveries.  Related Reading: XRP Has Just Flashed ‘The Real Signal’, Analyst Reveals Where Price Is Headed He explained that market sentiments have swung so far into fear that many traders may have already locked in their worst losses just as the market began to recover. According to his analysis, last week’s BTC sell-off and price crash prompted many participants to exit their positions near the bottom. Now that the cryptocurrency is recovering, the analyst believes those same traders will hesitate to re-enter the market, convinced that the recent rebound is nothing more than a dead cat bounce.  In his chart, Anthony highlighted several instances in the past when similar skepticism emerged after Bitcoin continued trending higher following a downturn. The analyst expects this pessimistic behavior to persist, stating that traders may continue labeling every upward push a dead cat bounce until BTC reaches $100,000 and beyond. This suggests that investors might interpret each step higher as a warning sign that the price rally is only temporary and bound to fail.  While he believes the underlying trend is bullish, Anthony has acknowledged that a correction could still emerge as Bitcoin approaches previous highs. However, he reassures that the routine pullback would not negate the broader recovery underway.  The analyst’s report indicates that the dead cat bounce narrative will prove to be a false signal. He predicts that disbelief in the market will eventually give way to Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) once Bitcoin decisively moves above $115,000. At that point, Anthony forecasts that many traders who sold during the downturn will scramble to buy back in at higher levels, completing a cycle of selling low and buying high.  BTC Could Hit $115,000 Before Skeptics Turn Bullish In a follow-up post, Anthony issued a sharp critique of the emotional trading patterns and bearish sentiment dominating the crypto market. According to him, many of these traders who insist the Bitcoin rally has ended will continue to call every upward move a dead cat bounce, even as the price advances.  Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? By the time Bitcoin hits $115,000, the analyst expects investor sentiment to shift abruptly, triggering a late surge of bullishness from traders who had doubted the initial recovery. Anthony argues that these sudden changes in viewpoint will have little to do with careful analysis and everything to do with watching the chart move and reacting afterward.  Featured image created with Shedevrum, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s famous four-year halving rhythm is giving way to a shorter, ETF-driven performance clock, argues ProCap Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Jeff Park in a new Substack essay. In his view, the dominant force in Bitcoin’s boom-bust dynamics is shifting “from mining economics to fund-manager economics,” with a new “two-year cycle” anchored in ETF flows and institutional return hurdles. Park starts by declaring that the traditional pattern built around halvings belongs to “the old Bitcoin.” Historically, programmed supply cuts compressed miner margins, pushed weaker operators out and reduced structural sell pressure. Combined with a powerful narrative, each halving triggered a reflexive loop of “early positioning, rising prices, media virality, retail FOMO and leveraged mania” that ended in a bust. That mechanism, he argues, is now significantly diluted. With most of Bitcoin’s eventual supply already circulating, each halving shaves off a smaller fraction of the total float. The “diminishing marginal inflation impact” means the issuance shock is too small to reliably drive the next cycle on its own. The ETF-Driven 2-Year Bitcoin Cycle Begins Instead, Park contends that Bitcoin is increasingly governed by how professional allocators behave inside ETF wrappers. He openly labels his framework as resting on “three heavy-handed, contestable assumptions.” Related Reading: Capriole Founder Not Bearish On Bitcoin Despite Headwinds—Here’s Why First, most institutional investors are de facto evaluated over one- to two-year horizons because of how liquid fund investment committees operate. Second, new net liquidity into Bitcoin will be dominated by ETF channels, making them the main footprint to watch. Third, the selling behavior of legacy “OG whales” remains the largest supply variable, but is treated as exogenous to his ETF-centric analysis. Within this lens, two concepts matter most: common-holder risk and calendar-year P&L. Park notes that when “everyone owns the same thing,” flows can amplify both rallies and drawdowns. But he focuses on something easier to observe: the way annual performance crystallizes on December 31. For hedge funds in particular, “when volatility increases towards the end of the year” and there isn’t enough P&L “baked in,” managers become more willing to sell their riskiest positions. The choice, he writes, is often “the difference between getting another shot to play in 2026, or getting fired.” Park leans on Ahoniemi and Jylhä’s 2011 paper Flows, Price Pressure, and Hedge Fund Returns, highlighting its finding that a large share of hedge-fund “alpha” is flow-driven and that return–reversal cycles stretch “almost two years.” This, he says, offers a blueprint for how liquidity and performance feedbacks could structure Bitcoin’s ETF era. He then sketches how a CIO might sell Bitcoin internally: as an asset expected to deliver something like a 25–30 percent compound annual return. On that basis, a position must generate roughly 50 percent over two years to justify its risk and fee drag. Park references Michael Saylor’s “30% CAGR for the next 20 years” as a rough institutional hurdle. From there he builds a three-cohort thought experiment. Investors who bought via ETFs from inception through year-end 2024 are up around 100 percent in a single year, effectively having “pulled forward 2.6 years of performance.” A second cohort that entered on 1 January 2025 is roughly 7 percent underwater, now needing “80%+ over the next year, or 50% over the next two years” to hit the same hurdle. A third group, holding from inception through the end of 2025, is up about 85 percent over two years—only slightly ahead of its 30 percent CAGR target. For that group, Park says, the live question becomes: “Do I sell and lock it now, or do I let it run longer?” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes A Triple Bearish Divergence: CMT Sounds The Alarm ETF flow data sharpen the picture. Park highlights that Bitcoin now trades near “an increasingly important price, $84k,” which he characterizes as roughly the aggregate cost basis of ETF flows to date. While 2024 inflows carry substantial embedded gains, “almost none of the ETF flows in 2025 are in the green,” with March as a partial exception. October 2024, the largest inflow month, saw Bitcoin around $70,000; November 2024 closed near $96,000. On a 30 percent hurdle, Park estimates one-year targets of roughly $91,000 and $125,000 dollars for those vintages. June 2025 inflows near $107,000 imply a $140,000 target by June 2026. He argues that Bitcoin ETF AUM is now at an “inflection point,” where a 10 percent price drop would drag total AUM back to roughly its level at the start of the year. That would leave the ETF complex with little to show, in dollar P&L, for 2025 despite taking on meaningful risk and inflows. The key takeaway, Park writes, is that investors must track not only the average ETF cost basis, but also “the moving average of that P&L by vintage.” Those rolling profit profiles will, in his view, become the main “liquidity pressures and circuit breakers” for Bitcoin, eclipsing the old four-year halving template. His second conclusion cuts against retail intuition: “If Bitcoin price doesn’t move, but time moves forward, this is ultimately bad for Bitcoin in the institutional era.” In a fee-and-benchmark world, flat is not neutral; it is underperformance versus the 30 percent ROI that justified the allocation. That alone can trigger selling. “In summary,” Park concludes, “the 4-year cycle is definitely over.” Bitcoin will still be driven by marginal demand, marginal supply and profit-taking. But “the buyers have changed,” and with halving-driven supply shocks less decisive, it is the more “predictable” incentives of ETF managers—expressed over roughly two-year windows—that may now define Bitcoin’s market cycle. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,559. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com