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The Bitcoin price looks set to end the year in the red, having produced one of its worst Q4 performances in recent years. However, it appears that the new year 2026 might bring the relief majority of the market expects. According to a recent evaluation, the Bitcoin price structure suggests that a deeper correction looks to be on the horizon for the market leader. BTC Price To Revisit $73,000 In 2026 Q1? In a December 20 post on the X platform, quant trader CryptoOnchain shared fresh insights into the current layout of the Bitcoin price. According to the market analyst, the price outlook of BTC is tilting towards a bearish scenario, especially as selling pressure remains evident on the chart. Related Reading: Analysts Warn Strategy Could Be Dropped From Multiple Indexes, Potential $9 Billion Loss Predicted CryptoOnchain said that the price of Bitcoin is hovering around the key Point of Control (POC) level. For context, the point of control (POC) refers to the price level with the highest volume of trading activity within a given period, thereby serving as a significant support or resistance zone. According to the crypto pundit, the failure of the Bitcoin price to quickly recover its former highs suggests an increased likelihood of seeing it break below its POC and towards the $70,000 – $73,000 range. CryptoOnchain identified this region, which was the last cycle’s peak, as a critical “support flip,” where buyers might look to step in aggressively. Furthermore, CryptoOnchain noted that the divergent Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds credence to the Bitcoin price falling to the support cushion around $70,000 – $73,000. “Traders should watch for reversal triggers around the $72,000 level,” the analyst added. However, the market pundit warned that holding the $70,000 – $73,000 zone might be critical in preventing an even deeper correction and an extended bear market for the Bitcoin price. In essence, this “support flip” is crucial for BTC to resume its long-term bullish structure and preserve the macro trend. The price of BTC visited the sub-$75,000 region in the year’s first quarter as the global financial markets reeled from what was initially breaking out as a trade war. Hence, a return to this price level might be a tad familiar to investors, albeit it would also represent an almost 20% decline from the current price point. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $88,330, reflecting no significant price change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Citi Analysts Project Bitcoin Price Could Reach $189,000 Next Year In Bullish Scenario Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has slipped into standby mode as the weekend unfolds, with price action remaining compressed inside a familiar range. Volatility is muted, momentum is lacking, and traders are largely focused on well-defined scalp levels rather than expecting a decisive move. With the holiday period approaching, patience and precision are taking center stage as the market waits for its next real catalyst. Bitcoin Slips Back Into Weekend Range Mode According to a recent update, analyst Lennaert Snyder noted that Bitcoin has once again entered a period of “weekend chop.” While he does not expect any major trending moves during this time, he has outlined several specific scalp scenarios and price traps he is monitoring closely to take advantage of short-term volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Phase Begins: Weekly Support Holds, Momentum Fades If Bitcoin swipes the wick near $88,865 and tests the resistance box situated just above it, he will be hunting for scalp-short opportunities, specifically after failing to hold the level. Conversely, for those looking to go long, he is eyeing the $87,420 level, which marks the start of the previous impulse and a key support box. If the price tests this area, Snyder will be watching for clear reversal patterns to trigger a scalp-long. However, if the market loses that “start impulse” support, the analyst believes a continuation short down to the $85,890 lows becomes highly probable. Once the price arrives at those deeper lows, he will pivot his strategy to wait for a reversal to long position. Finally, Snyder identified a major breakout trigger: when Bitcoin can gain and hold $89,375 (the top of the resistance box), the analyst assumes the market will finally squeeze toward the $90,400 region. While he doesn’t expect this breakout to materialize before Monday, he has his alerts set and suggests traders take the time to enjoy their weekend. Weekend Lull Keeps Bitcoin Range-Bound In an X post, analyst Daan Crypto Trades observed that BTC is entering the weekend in a state of relative stagnation. The analyst suggested that this is an ideal window for traders to step back and rest, allowing for a mental reset before the market dynamics potentially shift in the coming week. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details Despite various fluctuations, Bitcoin’s price has remained essentially unchanged over the past few weeks. The asset remains firmly stuck in the middle of its established range, lacking the necessary momentum to either break out toward new highs or break down into a deeper correction. Daan Crypto Trades warned that next week will likely be characterized by more choppy price action, as market activity often thins out significantly around the Christmas holidays. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Since the market-wide crash in early October, the Bitcoin price has struggled to resume any significant movement to the upside. The flagship cryptocurrency has continued to fall even deeper into bearish territory, breaching multiple support zones in the process. With the crypto market’s situation painting a bleak picture, the prevailing sentiment around its leader can hardly be said to be bullish. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation puts into perspective the key players behind Bitcoin’s weakness. BTC Coinbase Premium Gap Reads –$57 In a recent post on the social media platform X, on-chain analyst Maartunn shared that a substantial portion of sell pressure seen in the Bitcoin market might be from the activities of US investors. This on-chain observation is based on the Coinbase Premium Gap metric, which measures whether US based investors are buying or selling Bitcoin more aggressively than the rest of the global market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Recent Dips Reveal Market Structure Issue Not Coming From Selling Pressure For context, the metric tracks the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Bitcoin on major offshore exchanges (for example, Binance). A positive reading typically indicates that Bitcoin is more expensive on Coinbase, meaning that US traders are buying aggressively. On the other hand, negative readings are interpreted as increased sales or reduced interest among investors in the United States.  According to the analyst, the Coinbase Premium Gap recently dropped to a -$57 reading. As has been earlier implied, this deep negative value reveals that traders from the US are actively offloading, rather than accumulating Bitcoin.  Interestingly, this heightened selling activity accompanies Bitcoin’s price momentum towards lower levels. Thus, it becomes clear that the sell-pressure reflected on Bitcoin’s price is due mainly to the absence of US demand.  BTC Market Outlook According to historical data, Bitcoin’s direction in the long-term could go either way. While a negative Coinbase Premium Gap reading is usually indicative of a bearish phase in the short term, the long-term perspective is a little less straightforward.  In past cycles, prolonged periods of negative readings have preceded the formations of market bottoms, after which prices saw recoveries to the upside. This often happens when sell-side pressure dwindles, and fresh demand enters the Bitcoin market.  Related Reading: Ethereum Exchange Supply Just Crashed To New Lows, Why This Is Bullish For Price Hence, if this negative reading deepens and there is no fresh demand in the market, the Bitcoin price could follow suit and continue south. However, a reversal of the Coinbase Premium Gap to the upside — pushing it towards neutral or positive levels — could prove pivotal for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.  As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of $88,260, reflecting no significant price movement in the past day.  Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price has experienced a significant correction after reaching all-time highs above $126,000 in October, currently trading just above $87,900. This marks a notable 30% decline over the past few months.  Despite this setback, analysts at Citi express optimism for the cryptocurrency’s future, forecasting that its value will continue to rise through 2026. Optimistic Bitcoin Price Predictions According to Citi’s analysts, the base case for the Bitcoin price is set at $143,000, reflecting a potential 62% increase from current levels. In a more bullish scenario, the cryptocurrency could surge to over $189,000, indicating a substantial 114% increase.  Conversely, the analysts also present a bear case for the leading crypto, with an estimated price around $78,500, which would represent an additional 10.6% decline from current trading levels. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Support Shattered, Potential $100 Test Looms, Says Analyst The forecast from Citi relies on the assumption that investor adoption will persist, particularly with an influx of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) projected to reach $15 billion. This influx is seen as a catalyst that could significantly boost the Bitcoin price.  Furthermore, ongoing negotiations in the US Senate regarding their version of the crypto market structure bill, namely the CLARITY Act, which aims to regulate Bitcoin under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is anticipated to enhance market adoption. In contrast to Bitcoin, analysts express concerns regarding Ethereum’s (ETH) potential for growth. They argue that Ethereum, being viewed more as “programmable money,” has seen decreased activity, which has resulted in its current trading price of just below $3,000—40% below its all-time high of $4,964. Additional Catalyst For Price Growth Chris Neiger, an analyst at The Motley Fool, also attaches bullish predictions to the Bitcoin price future, highlighting that recent US job data reflects an unemployment rate increase to 4.6%, the highest since 2021.  He asserted that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) chose to lower interest rates by 2026, the Bitcoin price could benefit since lower rates typically enhance the cryptocurrency’s value by making borrowing more affordable. In November, JPMorgan provided a more conservative estimate, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 by 2026, with potential upside expected over the next six to twelve months.  Related Reading: Crypto Payments Firm MoonPay Set For $5 Billion Valuation With NYSE Owner’s Backing Meanwhile, even more aggressive predictions from market researcher Fundstrat forecast the Bitcoin price could soar between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026, largely driven by the mainstream adoption of ETFs. Additionally, the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the federal government has encouraged states to consider similar initiatives. Neiger concludes that just as ETFs have contributed to the credibility of cryptocurrencies and facilitated price increases, the formation of state-level Bitcoin reserves could serve as another critical driver propelling Bitcoin’s value higher in 2026. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Recent volatility in the Bitcoin market pullbacks is being widely interpreted as a wave of selling pressure, but the underlying data tells a different story. On-chain metrics show little evidence of broad holder distribution, suggesting that these dips are not being driven by investors exiting their positions. Instead, the weakness in price appears to stem from the market structure issues. Why Structural Weakness Is Often Temporary These Bitcoin dips aren’t coming from selling pressure; they’re coming from stablecoin-denominated shorts. The co-founder of GlydeGG, Sweep, revealed on X that when large amounts of leverage enter the system through dollar or stablecoin, market makers don’t just let the price move.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Their mandate is to remain neutral because neutrality demands balance. They achieve this by selling spot BTC, not because they’re bearish, but because neutrality requires it. As a result of that, the price drops without fear, panic, and without real spot.  The United States doesn’t need to dump assets to influence global markets; it exports dollars. Those dollars become leverage, while leverage creates synthetic pressure, which in turn forces hedging, and hedging hits the spot markets; that’s the cycle. This is why recent sell-offs feel empty, because retail has already left. Currently, the market is rebalancing within a system price against a weakening currency, and all markets are now denominated in a currency that’s losing purchasing power. That’s why volatility rises even when conviction doesn’t change. This isn’t a bear market; it’s clearing the Liquidity Providers (LPs), which is how big players buy BTC cheaply without ever owning it. How Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Are Entering A New Phase An ambassador and partner of Wolfswapdotapp, Crypto Miners, has pointed out that the Bitcoin supply dynamics are shifting fast. According to K33Research, nearly $300 billion worth of previously dormant BTC re-entered circulation in 2025. This supply release has been driven by long-term holder sales, large OTC transactions, and ETF-related absorption, which represents one of the largest supply unlocks in BTC history. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Phase Begins: Weekly Support Holds, Momentum Fades On-chain data from CryptoQuant has shown that the long-term holder distribution over the last 30 days has reached its highest level in more than five years. At the same time, the selling pressure currently is outweighing demand, as ETF flows turn negative, and retail participation has weakened. Despite near-term fragility, K33 noted that this distribution phase may be approaching exhaustion. The early holder selling is expected to fade into early 2026, potentially setting the stage for renewed accumulation as institutional rebalancing stabilizes supply. For now, the markets remain sensitive, but structurally, this looks like a late-cycle supply redistribution rather than panic selling. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics platform Glassnode has revealed the number of Bitcoin supply that is currently sitting at a loss. This comes as the BTC price continues to trade below the psychological $90,000 level following its crash, which began last month.  Here’s The Amount Of Bitcoin Supply At A Loss In a report, Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin supply in loss has risen to 6.7 million BTC, marking the highest level of loss-bearing supply observed in this cycle. The analytics platform further noted that this represents 23.7% of the circulating supply, which is currently underwater. 10.2% of this supply is held by long-term holders and 13.5% by short-term holders.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Glassnode stated that this distribution suggests that, much like in prior cycle transitions into deeper bearish regimes, the loss-bearing Bitcoin supply accumulated by recent buyers is gradually maturing into the long-term cohort. Meanwhile, the analytics platform noted that the 6-7 million range, which has been at a loss since mid-November, mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration came before a shift toward more bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower Bitcoin prices.  Notably, the Bitcoin price has dropped to levels last seen in 2024, erasing its year-to-date (YTD) gains. Glassnode stated that this has left behind a dense supply cluster accumulated by top buyers in the $93,000 to $120,000 range. The resulting supply distribution is said to reflect a top-heavy market structure where recovery attempts are capped by heavy overhead sell pressure, especially in the early stages of a bearish phase.  Glassnode declared that as long as the Bitcoin price remains below this range and fails to reclaim key thresholds, most notably the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, the risk of further corrective downside persists. BTC Spot Demand Is Unstable   Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin spot market flows continue to reflect an uneven demand profile across major venues. The Cumulative Volume Delta bias is said to show periodic bursts of buy-side activity, but has failed to develop into sustained accumulation, especially during the recent BTC price pullbacks.  Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Down Today? BlackRock Deposits Spark Worry The on-chain analytics platform noted that the Coinbase spot CVD remains relatively constructive, indicating steadier participation from US-based investors. On the other hand, Binance and aggregate Bitcoin flows remain choppy and largely directionless. Glassnode stated that these dispersion points point to selective engagement rather than coordinated spot demand.  Meanwhile, the platform alluded to recent Bitcoin price declines, which it pointed out have not triggered decisive expansion in positive CVD. Glassnode noted that this suggests dip-buying remains tactical and short-term. In the absence of sustained accumulation across all venues, Bitcoin’s price action continues to rely more on activity in the derivatives market and liquidity conditions rather than organic spot demand.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $86,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s options market has a new obsession: Christmas week. In a post Thursday, energy-sector managing partner David Eng argued the next eight days (December 19 through December 26) could define the near-term cycle for BTC, not because of a macro headline or some sudden ETF stampede, but because a large chunk of dealer gamma exposure is scheduled to roll off the board in two shots. At press time, bitcoin traded around $86,928, after swinging between roughly $84,461 and $89,230 intraday. Eng’s framing is blunt and very “options people”: the market is being mechanically pinned, and the pin has an expiry date The Hidden Force Holding Back Bitcoin Price? “The narrative isn’t just about tomorrow. We are staring down the barrel of a ‘Double-Barreled’ Liquidity Event that will wipe 67% of the entire derivatives board clean by December 26th,” Eng wrote. “Bitcoin is trading at $88,752, deep in the -25% Value Zone (Trend Value: $118k). The spring is coiled, but two massive structural weights are holding the lid down.” Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Diverge: Longs Dominate BTC, While ETH Shorts Rise Those “weights,” in his telling, are two expiries with meaningful gamma attached: roughly $128 million tied to Dec. 19 (21% of the total he tracks) and another $287 million at Dec. 26, which he calls the “boss level” ceiling. He labels the combined $415 million a coming “Gamma Flush,” arguing that once it clears, the hedging drag that’s been compressing spot price action should ease. The practical point is less mystical than it sounds. If dealers are sitting on meaningful gamma around a tight cluster of strikes, their delta-hedging can dampen volatility and keep spot gravitating around certain levels until that exposure decays or expires — the kind of “why does this tape feel glued?” frustration traders know too well. Eng’s map is built around very specific lines in the sand: $85k–$90k as the “mud” zone where hedging pressure keeps snapping price back, and $90,616 as the flip level he’s watching around the Dec. 19 expiry. “Stage 1: The Spark (Tomorrow, Dec 19) — $128 Million in Gamma expires tomorrow (21% of total). This is the ‘Appetizer.’ It removes the immediate suppression pinning us below $90k,” he wrote. “Watch the $90,616 flip level. If we clear this, the intraday shackles fall off.” But Eng is clearly more focused on the week after. “Stage 2: The Floodgate (Next Friday, Dec 26) — $287 Million in Gamma expires next week,” he continued. “A staggering 46.2% of all dealer gamma exposure sits on this single date… Dealers have a quarter-billion-dollar incentive to keep volatility crushed and price pinned near $85k-$90k through Christmas to harvest this premium.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Washout Points To $180,000 In 90 Days, GMI Says The claim, basically: pre-Dec. 26 is “thick mud,” post-Dec. 26 is the tape suddenly breathing again. “When you combine these two dates, $415,000,000 of gamma — two-thirds of the entire market structure — evaporates in the next 8 days,” Eng wrote. “Before Dec 26: The market is fighting through thick mud… After Dec 26: The mud dries up. The suppression mechanism is gone. The Power Law gravity ($118k) takes over without the dealer counter-flow.” He also tossed out a provocative ratio that’s been circulating in derivatives circles all year: dealer mechanics versus ETF demand. “Dealer Gamma forces are currently ~13x stronger than ETF Flows,” he wrote. “Dealer ~$507.6M, ETF ~$38M. This is why the market is obeying the technical gamma levels ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF volume.” Dealer Gamma forces are currently ~13x stronger than ETF Flows Dealer ~$507.6M ETF ~$38M This is why the market is obeying the technical gamma levels ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF volume. — David ???????? (@david_eng_mba) December 18, 2025 And when critics in the replies questioned whether “$287M” is even meaningful, Eng clarified what the figure is — and what it isn’t. “The $287M figure refers to dealer gamma exposure (GEX), not total options size,” he wrote. “GEX measures how much spot Bitcoin dealers may need to buy or sell to stay delta-neutral as price moves. It reflects hedging pressure, not notional value.” So the tradeable implication of Eng’s thesis is straightforward: expect the pinning games into Christmas, then watch whether a post-expiry regime shift actually shows up in realized volatility — and in price’s ability to stop bouncing off the same levels like it’s hitting invisible glass. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,953. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As the market volatility continues, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold its short-lived momentum and reclaim a key resistance level for the second time this week. Some market watchers have affirmed that the flagship crypto may continue to have a disappointing end-of-year rally and potentially reach new lows before the pain is over. Related Reading: Did Crypto Investors Stop Believing In The Four-Year Cycle? Analyst Weighs In New Lows Before A 2026 Recovery? On Thursday, Bitcoin attempted to break past a crucial level after surging 2.9% from its daily opening. The cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim $89,000-$90,000 area since the start-of-week correction, which sent the price to a two-week low of $85,145. Notably, the flagship crypto retested the crucial resistance area twice in the past 24 hours but has been rejected, falling back to the local lows. Market observer Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has been holding above the $85,000 support zone despite the volatility, which could lead to another retest of the key $90,000-$92,000 zone if it holds. However, if price break below local support zone, Bitcoin would likely see a retest of the November lows, around the $80,000 mark. Ted also pointed out that the cryptocurrency may be mirroring its Q1 2025 price action, which suggests that a price drop below the recent lows could happen. Per the chart, BTC briefly bounced in March from its early 2025 correction before recording a lower low in the next few weeks. This was then followed by the Q2 and Q3 recovery rallies that propelled the price to its latest all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. Now, Bitcoin displays a similar performance, currently recovering from the initial corrective phase. If history repeats, the flagship crypto could see a 10%-15% drop to the $74,000-$76,000 area in the coming weeks before kicking off a rally toward new highs in 2026, the analyst suggested. Bitcoin To Continue With ‘No Direction’ Similarly, Ali Martinez affirmed that the cryptocurrency is at an inflection point and risks dropping up to 20% if the $87,000 support doesn’t hold. He explained that BTC is breaking out of a bear flag, which could target the $70,000 level if selling pressure spikes. Meanwhile, another analyst considers that “sentiment [is] flipping based on every last daily candle colour.” Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has been trading within the $84,000-$93,500 for the past four weeks, “moving up and down in a choppy fashion, while trading in between these two larger levels.” To the trader, the next few weeks will continue to be “generally very choppy and lack direction” due to lower liquidity and trading volume during the holiday season. “I don’t think you’d be missing much if you log off and come back somewhere early January,” he added. Related Reading: XRP Price Must Defend This Level To Avoid 50% Breakdown, Analyst Warns On the contrary, analyst Crypto Jelle affirmed that despite the low-timeframe struggles, Bitcoin “still flat out refuses to drop lower, no matter how hard bears try.” He noted that price still sits “on a clear weekly support level” that has held since April, explaining that as long as this area holds, price can still reclaim the monthly opening, around the $90,300 area. As of this writing, BTC trades at $86,138 a 5.3% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken a notable step in reshaping how banks under its supervision can engage with crypto, reversing guidance introduced in 2023 that had sharply limited such activities. Related Reading: XRP Risks Double-Top Crash Toward $0.40, Peter Brandt Warns The decision reflects a broader reassessment inside the central bank about how regulation should adapt to financial innovation, especially as digital assets continue to intersect with traditional banking infrastructure. Under the earlier framework, uninsured state-chartered banks were required to follow the same constraints as federally insured institutions in order to remain under Federal Reserve supervision. That approach effectively barred some crypto banks from accessing core payment systems or Federal Reserve membership. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview What the Policy Shift Changes for Banks The new guidance establishes a formal pathway for both insured and uninsured banks supervised by the Federal Reserve to pursue certain innovative activities, including those related to cryptocurrencies. Institutions will still be required to meet supervisory and risk-management standards, but they will no longer be automatically excluded based on their business models. For uninsured banks, the implications are significant. Access to Federal Reserve membership would allow direct settlement through central bank payment systems rather than reliance on intermediary banks. This idea could lower operational frictions for crypto custody, settlement, and related services, potentially expanding the role of banks in digital asset markets without changing existing safety and soundness expectations. Custodia Case Highlights Regulatory Tensions The policy reversal has renewed attention on Custodia Bank, a crypto-focused institution whose application for a Federal Reserve master account was denied in part due to the now-rescinded guidance. Custodia CEO Caitlin Long has argued that the 2023 policy effectively blocked lawful access to the Fed’s infrastructure and welcomed its withdrawal as a correction of past regulatory overreach. Not all policymakers agree. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr dissented from the decision, warning that loosening the framework could undermine a level competitive playing field and encourage regulatory arbitrage. Michael Barr’s position highlights the ongoing debate within regulatory circles over how to strike a balance between innovation and financial stability.r Broader Implications for Crypto Markets While the Fed’s move does not directly change how cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum trade, it may influence market structure over time. Easier access for banks could support deeper institutional participation, greater liquidity, and expanded custody and settlement options. Related Reading: Ethereum Risks Slide To $2,000 If December Closes Below This Level: Analyst For now, the shift signals a more flexible regulatory posture, one that acknowledges the rapid evolution of digital asset markets and the banks that seek to serve them. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today as the crypto market remains in a phase of extreme fear. This latest crash came amid BlackRock’s move, which sparked fear of a sell-off from the world’s largest asset manager.  The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today following BlackRock’s transfer of 2,257 BTC and 74,973 ETH to Coinbase, indicating plans to offload these coins. Notably, the BTC and ETH ETFs recorded outflows on December 16, likely why the asset manager moved these coins to redeem shares for its IBIT and ETHA ETFs, which were sold that day.  Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Decline Amid BlackRock’s Transfer These Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have continued to record mixed flows, which have partly contributed to declines in BTC and ETH prices. Notably, the Bitcoin price had surged to around $90,000 yesterday from an intraday low of around $87,000, before retracing below $87,000 about an hour later. This immediately sparked theories of manipulation, with some crypto pundits revealing that BlackRock wasn’t the only one selling.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Crypto pundit Kruse claimed that Binance first bought nonstop for over 30 minutes to pump the price, then started dumping millions of BTC and ETH to liquidate longs. He noted that the Bitcoin price pumped about $3,300 in 30 minutes, with $106 million in shorts wiped out during that period.  Following that, BTC printed another volatile hourly candle to the downside, which flushed out $52 million in longs. A similar price action had also played out for the Ethereum price. Kruse declared that this wasn’t random volatility but rather liquidity hunting. The pundit further warned that this is how leverage gets punished in crypto. He then reiterated that the volatile Bitcoin and Ethereum price actions weren’t random, indicating the market is being manipulated.  Onchain Sleuth Tracer also accused Binance of being responsible for the Bitcoin and Ethereum price declines. He claimed that the crypto exchange pumped and dumped millions of BTC to liquidate traders, with $194 million in shorts and longs liquidated in one hour.  BTC And ETH To Hit New All-Time Highs Next Year? Crypto asset manager Bitwise has predicted that the Bitcoin price will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026. The asset manager alluded to factors such as the Bitcoin halving and interest rate cycles as what will drive this rally for the flagship crypto. The firm also remarked that crypto booms and busts fueled by leverage are weaker than in past cycles.  Related Reading: Ethereum 2-Year Trend Maps Out This Unique Crash Path To Bottom At $2,187 Bitwise also stated that institutions are likely to allocate more to Bitcoin ETFs, which is why they expect the Bitcoin price to reach new all-time highs next year. Furthermore, the firm noted that the pro-crypto regulatory shift will continue to allow companies to adopt crypto at a faster rate. The crypto asset manager also predicted that the Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high if the CLARITY Act passes. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin “oversold RSI” roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026—an outlook he says would render the traditional “four-year cycle” framework obsolete. “A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittel wrote, sharing a chart of bitcoin’s average price path after RSI falls below 30, with the RSI breach marked as t=0. “This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.” Can Bitcoin Skyrocket To $180,000 In Just 90 Days? Bittel said the overlay has matched the current tape. “So far, it’s been pretty bang on,” he wrote. The “average market path” line rises sharply over the weeks that follow. The chart shows a steep rally within 90 days after t=0, with the BTC price potentially surging near the $180,000 area. Related Reading: From Cycles To Continuity: Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Pattern May Be Breaking Still, Bittel emphasized the chart is not meant to be a precision forecast. “No, it won’t be perfect,” he wrote, adding that “assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.” He also warned that the rebound process can be uneven: “bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.” He reiterated the conditional nature of the framework in blunt terms. “If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along…” The bigger point, Bittel said, is that the familiar cycle narrative should not be taken for granted. “Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time,” he wrote. “As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.” In that scenario, he added, “the 4-year cycle is dead.” Bittel also challenged the common assumption that bitcoin’s rhythm is fundamentally “about the halving.” “Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle,” he wrote, adding that post-COVID that dynamic “was pushed out by one year.” He now argues the cycle is “officially broken” because “the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.” He framed the macro backdrop in terms of debt-service pressure and liquidity response. “The bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth,” Bittel wrote. Reactions across crypto X ranged from enthusiastic to skeptical. The ₿itcoin Therapist replied: “$180,000 BTC in 90 days.” Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ Panic Returns: History Says It’s A Late Signal LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) said the chart “lines up with our thinking,” tying the narrative to what it called the Fed’s “not QE QE” dynamics and “liquidity games” between the Treasury and the central bank. The account still anticipated turbulence into year-end—“noise and chop into year end (which is negative liquidity)”—before “these fundamental drivers start to see BTC reconnect with the bull trend,” adding that “sentiment appears sufficiently bad for a BTC move higher to be the most hated trade to start 2026!” Others struck a more sardonic tone. “precision-grade hopium here,” wrote doug funnie (@cryptoklotz), while still sketching a conditional path forward: Still think as long as BTC survives (ie doesn’t close in the $70k’s and starts grinding down or accepting there), there’s a plausible path to new highs on the earlier side in 2026. Just need to survive the ‘transition zone’ of 4 year deterministic selloors exhausting, and then ending up in an awkward spot as the music keeps playing.” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards was more critical of the statistical grounding, urging a broader test set: “Now re run this with 100 occurrences, not 5 during up only.” For traders, Bittel’s post effectively combines a tactical signal with a regime call: the RSI sub-30 template may map the rebound path, but only “assuming the bull market isn’t already over,” and only in a world where, as he put it, “the balance of probabilities” favors a cycle that “extends well into 2026.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,330. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered an extreme oversold phase, with momentum indicators dropping to levels that historically signal market exhaustion and a trend reversal. Researchers tracking macro conditions and long-term price behavior say that the current drawdown reflects a reset in positioning, not the end of the bull market. Based on past recovery patterns, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could soon forge a path toward a new all-time high.  Bitcoin Enters Extreme Oversold Territory  Thomas Lee, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Fundstrat Capital, has flagged Bitcoin’s latest market condition as a key technical development. He pointed to data from Bittel Julien, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, which highlights how deeply oversold Bitcoin has become within the current cycle and the cryptocurrency’s potential to reach a new ATH.  Related Reading: Why This Week Could Be Transformational For The XRP Price In his post on X, Lee publicly commended Julien’s analysis, emphasizing that historically extreme oversold conditions in BTC have often been followed by meaningful bounces. Julien, who also shared his report on X this Wednesday, explained that his analysis responds to frequent requests for updates on a long-running market model that tracks Bitcoin’s behavior following major momentum breakdowns.  According to him, the model examines BTC’s average price path after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 30, a level widely considered to indicate extreme oversold conditions. The analyst stated that Bitcoin’s recent price action has closely followed technical historical patterns, provided the broader bull market structure remains intact.  The accompanying chart compares current Bitcoin price behavior with the average historical trajectory observed after the last five instances in which the cryptocurrency entered oversold territory. The point at which RSI declines below 30 is marked as “time zero.” In previous cycles, this moment typically followed a period of stabilization and a strong upward recovery over the following weeks and months. Based on historical averages, Julien sees a potential path toward new all-time highs if Bitcoin continues to track past recovery patterns. While the market researcher cautions that the chart is not perfect, he argues that it remains a useful analytical framework, particularly if the four-year cycle thesis continues to play out.   BTC Cycle Could Extend Into 2026 As 4-Year Pattern Breaks  Julien’s analysis also suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle could extend well into 2026 and challenge the relevance of the traditional four-year cycle thesis. According to the market researcher, the BTC cycle has never been driven by halving events, contrary to what the broader crypto community believes. Instead, he stated that the cycle is fueled by public debt refinancing, which was delayed by a year after COVID.  Related Reading: Private Investment Firm Shares Why XRP Is Their Leading Investment He highlighted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is now officially broken due to an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure. He also noted that liquidity conditions and ongoing interest expense monetization, which far exceed GDP growth, support a prolonged cycle.  Furthermore, Julien emphasized that Bitcoin’s price bases usually take time to form and often include periods of volatility before a significant upward move occurs. The market researcher explained that his analysis was not a signal of an immediate market decline but rather a framework that assumes the bull market is still firmly in place.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The idea that Bitcoin’s halving operates on a fixed four-year timetable has become one of the most oversimplified narratives in the crypto markets. While the halving still reduces new supply, its influence is no longer confined to predictable timelines or uniform outcomes. As BTC matures into a globally traded asset, the forces shaping its market behavior have expanded beyond the event. How The Cycle Narrative Became Oversimplified In an X post, an analyst known as Deg_ape revealed that the Bitcoin halving cycle was never a rigid four-year clock. BTC’s cycle has always been about phase transitions, shifting liquidity conditions, and market behavior, but never about buying every four years and selling four years later. This cycle actually maps macro bear phases that expand, contract, overlap, and stretch based on macro flows and positioning.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details The four-year cycle still exists, but it is not a linear process. Deg_ape explains that BTC halvings act as a structural anchor, not a price guarantee. This is why market tops usually arrive later than most expect and why bear markets last longer than people can tolerate. Trying to time the BTC market cycle without understanding that these phase dynamics can lead to expensive mistakes. Kyle Chassé has pointed out that Bitcoin dipped, and traders stopped watching the printer, which is a big mistake. This is the most dangerous divergence in the market as price is down, but liquidity is vertical. While traders were panicking and selling their slips, the US Treasury and the Fed quietly injected around $130 billion of fresh liquidity into the system.  This shows that liquidity would lead the price, but it won’t do it instantly. There’s a big lag as liquidity will flood the market first, then the assets will reprice. However, a red candle on a green liquidity chart isn’t a crash, but a mispricing. While the printer is screaming up, the price chart is whispering down. Why Retail Holders Are Capitulating At A Historic Rate A crypto analyst known as OnChainCollege outlined that retail holders are under pressure. On-chain data shows the deepest 30-day balance decline among retail wallets since 2018, a level typically associated with periods of extreme fear and capitulation. While retail balances are falling sharply, larger holder cohorts are quietly absorbing the difference.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Exhaustion? BTC Whales Close Long Positions After Extreme Upside Bets The market sentiment has split into two groups with polar-opposite perspectives from retail that are reacting to price action against larger holders that are responding to structure, liquidity, and long-term positioning. In the meantime, the OG whales have continued to distribute throughout this bull market, but Mega whales and institutional participants are stepping in as the marginal buyers. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has entered a critical make-or-break phase as price clings to key weekly support while momentum continues to fade. Despite holding above a major confluence zone, repeated rejections overhead suggest buyers are losing control. With macro pressure building and liquidity levels still untested, the next move from here could define whether BTC stabilizes or slides into a deeper reset. Lower-Timeframe Rejection Keeps The Downtrend In Control Crypto analyst Michael Van De Poppe revealed in a recent post that Bitcoin has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance level. This failure signals that the short-term downtrend remains intact on lower timeframes, confirming that selling pressure currently outweighs buying momentum in the immediate term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details To flip this short-term bias, Van de Poppe expects a clear breakout above the $88,000 level. A successful move above this mark would serve as a strong, unequivocal signal to the markets that the corrective phase is over and that upward momentum is likely to take hold from that point forward. If buyers fail to achieve this necessary breakout, it remains highly probable that the price will pursue liquidity targets below, specifically targeting a test at $83,000 for liquidity. Should that fail, a further descent to the $80,000 level will trigger stop-losses. Finally, Van De Poppe connected the technical outlook to the broader economic environment. Given the high volume of macroeconomic events scheduled to take place over the course of the week, such as FOMC, Poppe believes that the market could experience significant volatility and end up reaching one of the predicted downside liquidity tests. $93,000 Rejection Stalls Momentum, but Weekly Structure Still Intact According to a weekly chart update by Crypto Damus, Bitcoin recently faced a firm rejection at the $93,000 resistance level. Despite that setback, price action remains constructive for now, with BTC holding above the crucial $86,000 weekly support zone. This area is reinforced with the key 100-week moving average confluence, making it an important level to watch in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Potential 60% Decline As Expert Warns Of ‘Major Bull Trap’ That said, the broader structure still leaves room for deeper downside. Crypto Damus notes that a full retracement toward the rising wedge breakdown target cannot be ruled out, which aligns closely with the April low around the $78,000 region. A move into that zone would represent a more pronounced corrective phase within the larger cycle. Looking further ahead, a deeper bear-market-style retest may ultimately present a more attractive long-term opportunity. A revisit of the $70,000 level is highlighted as a potential high-conviction buying area, should the market extend its pullback. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s “death cross” is back in the group chat. And yes, the emails too. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said he’s been “getting questions from clients” about the latest death cross print — the 50-day moving average slipping under the 200-day — and answered with the kind of data dump that tends to calm people down. “Lagging indicator,” Sigel wrote on X, alongside a table of every Bitcoin death cross going back to 2011. The summary stats are clean: the 6-month median return after a death cross is +30%, the 12-month median is +89%, and the “positive hit rate” is 64%. Another Bitcoin Death Cross, Another Missed Bottom? But the interesting bit isn’t just the returns. It’s Sigel’s market regime column — basically a hint that the same technical signal can mean wildly different things depending on where you are in the cycle. Take the ones tagged as some version of “bottom.” In 2011 (“post-bubble bottom”), the death cross showed up around the wreckage of an early-cycle blow-off, and the next 12 months were +357%. In 2015 (“cycle bottom”), it was +82% at six months and +159% at 12 months — classic post-capitulation behavior where trend indicators catch up late, after price has already stabilized and started to turn. Related Reading: US Bitcoin Session Leads December Returns After Weak November 2020 (“Covid bottom”) is the extreme example: forced liquidation, policy response, then a monster rebound (+812% over 12 months). And 2023 is also tagged “cycle bottom,” with +173% at six months and +121% at 12 months — the kind of “this is awful until it isn’t” regime crypto does better than any asset class. Now look at “structural bear.” That label shows up in 2014 (twice), 2018, and 2022 — and the forward returns are mostly ugly: 2014 prints -48% and -56% over 12 months, 2018 is -35%, and 2022 is -52%. Different environment. Less “washout and bounce,” more “trend is down because the system is deleveraging,” whether that’s miners, credit, exchanges, or macro liquidity tightening. In those regimes, a death cross isn’t a late alarm — it’s the moving averages confirming that the downtrend is real and persistent. Related Reading: Bitcoin Under Pressure As Yen Carry Trade Unwind Hits Global Markets The in-between tags matter too. 2019 is marked “late bear,” with +9% at six months and +89% at 12 — choppy, uneven, but improving as the cycle turns. 2021 is “late cycle”: +30% at six months, then -43% at 12, which fits a regime where trend signals can whipsaw while distribution and macro tightening creep in. And then there’s 2024: “post-ETF regime,” with +58% at six months and +94% at 12. That tag is doing a lot of work. It suggests the backdrop isn’t just “price vs. moving averages,” but structural demand (ETFs), different liquidity plumbing, and a market that may behave less like pure reflexive leverage and more like a hybrid of trad-fi flows plus crypto-native positioning. So the takeaway isn’t “death crosses are bullish.” That’s not true. It’s that the signal is mostly a trailing mirror — and the regime you’re actually in (bottoming, late bear, structural deleveraging, late cycle, post-ETF flow market) is what decides whether it’s a fake-out, a confirmation, or just noise with a scary name. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $86,631. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Struggling under the weight of notable selling pressure, the Bitcoin price has since lost its hold on the $90,000 support, leading to a sustained downtrend through the middle of December. Despite calls for a bottom, the cryptocurrency does not seem to be heading in that direction, and some analysts have shared reasons as to why this is the case. Crypt analyst Lingrid maps out the trajectory of the Bitcoin price, showing a bullish short-term, but ultimately ending with more declines. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Further Lingrid’s analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s recent price performance, having hit resistance multiple times above the $92,000 level. This comes as the digital asset is “capped below channel border,” something that is inherently bearish for the price, given the recent price action. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts How Low The XRP Price Will Go Before Bouncing The rejections between $92,500 and $93,500, according to the analyst, show that the Bitcoin price is likely to place in lower highs. Thus, even in the event of a recovery trend, this level still remains a significant roadblock to any rally. Furthermore, the crypto analyst adds that the recent slowdown in the Bitcoin price action has pushed it into a tight compression. With the price still sitting above the rising support line while this happens, Lingrid believes that this shows Bitcoin is entering into a state of equilibrium, and not strength. Usually, this means that the Bitcoin price could be headed for “directional expansion.” Presently, all eyes are on the bears and sellers as the Bitcoin price struggles to hold support. There is still the possibility that the price will rise to $92,500 before facing a rejection. In this scenario, it would trigger further decline toward $82,000 to put in lower lows. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Still Hit $140,000? What The Global M2 Money Supply Says There is also the possibility that the digital asset does escape this bearish scenario, but the buyers would have to step back in the ring. Mainly, the Bitcoin price must break out and then hold above the channel, sustaining a move above $92,500. If this plays out, then Lingrid believes that the bearish thesis could be invalidated. Such a case would mean that the Bitcoin focus shifts back toward $100,000. However, with the price currently trending below $90,000 and sentiment being mostly negative, the chances of an invalidation remain slim. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The yen carry trade unwind has been hovering over markets lately — the kind of “plumbing” story that most people ignore right up until volatility spikes and everything suddenly feels connected. Graham Stephan put it into a Bitcoin and crypto-friendly frame yesterday. In a Dec. 15 post, the popular YouTuber described the yen carry trade as Wall Street’s long-running “infinite money glitch” — and argued it’s breaking down just as the Fed is signaling a shift in its outlook for next year. “Wall Street found an ‘infinite money’ glitch 20 years ago. They called it the Yen Carry Trade. It just broke, right when the Fed announced its plans for next year,” Stephan wrote. What The Yen Carry Trade Unwind Means For Bitcoin He presented it as a straightforward trade that scaled because the size was big enough to matter. “For decades, the ‘Yen Carry Trade’ has been the secret engine behind global liquidity. The mechanics were simple enough that a child could understand them, but profitable enough to move trillions of dollars.” Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? Stephan then laid out the basic steps in plain English: borrow cheaply in Japan, rotate into higher-yield US assets, keep the spread. “Borrow Cheap: Investors borrowed money in Japan, where interest rates were effectively 0%… Invest Abroad: They took that ‘free money’ and bought US Treasuries paying 4-5%… Profit: They pocketed the difference without using any of their own money.” His argument is that the setup turns toxic when the rate differential compresses and the currency leg moves the wrong way. He framed the timing as especially awkward for risk assets: Japan tightening to support the yen while the Fed eases. “Japan is finally raising rates to save its own currency right at the time when the Fed has started slashing rates. The gap between the rates is getting squeezed. The ‘free money’ isn’t free anymore.” From there, he leaned into the mechanical consequence: when funding gets more expensive and the currency shifts, leveraged positions don’t get a long debate window — they get cut. “As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips. Investors are now being forced to sell their US assets to pay back their Yen loans. Instead of money flowing into the US markets, it is being sucked out to pay debts in Tokyo. This is a massive liquidity drain happening right under our noses.” That’s also where his Bitcoin read comes in. Not “Bitcoin is broken,” but that Bitcoin is where risk appetite and leverage tend to show up early — and where forced selling can look brutal when it hits. Stephan expanded on the same theme in a Substack post, pulling the Fed into the timeline more directly and warning readers to brace for turbulence. “You better get ready for a bumpy ride,” he wrote, claiming the Fed cut rates “for the third time this year,” and that the central bank “has officially ended ‘Quantitative Tightening’ and is quietly moving back toward printing money.” Related Reading: US Bitcoin Session Leads December Returns After Weak November He added a “pilot flying blind” angle as well, arguing the Fed cut “without any inflation data whatsoever” due to shutdown-related disruptions. He attached a specific interpretation of balance-sheet policy, too: “Finally, the most important news of the day: Quantitative Tightening (QT) is over… They even announced they will buy $40 billion of Treasuries over the next 30 days. The tightening era is dead. The ‘stimulus’ era is now being rebooted, and the money printer is being turned on.” Taken together, his thesis ends up with Bitcoin sitting between two forces that don’t necessarily move on the same clock: a potentially sharp deleveraging impulse from carry unwinds, and a slower easing impulse if policy conditions loosen. One can hit price violently in a short window; the other can take time to express itself cleanly. Stephan closed with a familiar Bitcoin-with-training-wheels framing: volatility is normal, drawdowns happen, and mining economics create a reference point. “Bitcoin isn’t broken. It’s just volatile, and this isn’t the first time this is happening. Statistically, Bitcoin has seen drastic crashes of 50% or more, but it has never dropped below its “electrical cost” (the cost to mine one coin), which sits around $71,000 today. If we get close to that number, history suggests it’s a strong buy zone,” he concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $87,082. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 4% drop, falling below the $86,000 mark on Monday, as market speculation grows regarding the cryptocurrency’s future following the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate decision.  In a recent poll conducted from December 2 to 9, an overwhelming 90% of economists—63 out of 70—predicted that the BOJ would increase short-term interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% at this week’s planned meeting. Experts Warn Of Impact From BOJ Rate Hikes Experts on social media have noted a concerning trend: during the last three rate hikes by the BOJ, Bitcoin has typically dropped significantly. The statistics reveal the following declines: a 23% drop in March 2024, a 26% decline in July 2024, and a 31% dip in January of this year.  Related Reading: Why XRP Isn’t Reacting to Major Institutional and Regional Developments Based on current prices just below $86,000, this would imply that if the cryptocurrency sees another 20% correction, it could drop all the way to 68,800. This would mean extending the gap compared to the all-time high of $126,000 by almost 46%.  The group of experts further highlighted that the dynamics at play in Japan significantly impact Bitcoin’s performance as Japan holds the largest amount of US debt of any nation.  When Japanese interest rates rise, capital tends to flow back to Japan, leading to reduced liquidity in dollars. This decrease in dollar liquidity often results in the selling of riskier assets like Bitcoin. On November 30, a foreboding sign of this potential downturn appeared when confirmation of Japan’s impending rate hike caused Bitcoin to dip to around $83,000, erasing approximately $200 billion from the overall cryptocurrency market. However, the bearish sentiment affecting Bitcoin is not solely the result of Japan’s actions. Market analyst known as NoLimit recently pointed to another critical factor: China’s renewed crackdown on Bitcoin mining.  China’s Mining Crackdown Spurs Bitcoin Sell-Off The analyst recently asserted that China has tightened regulations, particularly affecting operations in Xinjiang, where a significant number of crypto mining setups were shut down in December. This led to the abrupt offline status of roughly 400,000 miners. The repercussions of such a sudden shift in mining activity are already evident. The Bitcoin network hashrate has fallen by about 8%, indicating that fewer miners are actively contributing to the network.  NoLimit suggests that this sudden reduction creates immediate revenue-loss for miners, who may need to liquidate Bitcoin to cover operational costs or to relocate their equipment. Consequently, this generates actual selling pressure on the market, contributing to the downward price trend seen on Monday. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Compression Deepens as Analysts Debate if the Next Move Is a Rally or Breakdown Despite the short-term pain this creates, the analysts clarified that it does not indicate a long-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Instead, he views it as a temporary supply shock driven by regulatory decisions rather than a shift in demand.  Historical patterns support this notion: when China has previously cracked down on miners, the cycle follows a familiar trajectory: miners are forced offline, hashrate dips occur, prices fluctuate, and eventually, the network adapts before Bitcoin moves forward again. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price outlook remains under scrutiny as market analysts assess whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can still reach $140,000. Given BTC’s recent downturn and fluctuating price, it’s understandable that a dramatic surge to $140,000 could be viewed skeptically. However, the analyst points to global M2 Money Supply, highlighting its correlation with Bitcoin and its support for a significant upside move. New discussions have emerged in the crypto space about the relationship between the Bitcoin price action and the global M2 Money Supply. Pseudonymous crypto analyst ‘MoneyLord’ has projected a massive price surge to $140,000 for BTC based on M2 data. The analyst noted that many people are skeptical about the relevance of M2 Money Supply, likely questioning whether it still holds predictive value for Bitcoin’s performance. Global M2 Money Supply To Fuel $140,000 Bitcoin Price Surge According to MoneyLord, the recent disconnect between Bitcoin and M2 data should not be viewed as a failure of the model, but rather as a consequence of aggressive market interference and increased stress across global financial systems. In his technical report released on X, he argued that, without heavy manipulation and the collapse and insolvency of major entities, Bitcoin would have continued to track global liquidity growth. Related Reading: Is It More Profitable To Hold Bitcoin For The Short-Term? 2025 Numbers Are Here MoneyLord believes that those shocks temporarily suppressed BTC’s price expansion, likely contributing to its recent decline and slow momentum. With market conditions somewhat stabilizing, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin is poised to realign with global M2 Money Supply trends, potentially setting the stage for renewed upward momentum.  From this perspective, the current phase is viewed as a delayed reaction rather than a failed cycle. MoneyLord predicts that if Bitcoin begins to catch up with M2 data, the cryptocurrency’s price could hit a target above $140,000 sooner than the market expects. The accompanying chart illustrates this bullish outlook, showing global liquidity, represented by the blue line, continuing to rise toward the projected price.  With Bitcoin trading near $90,000 after a more than 6% decline this month, a rally to $140,000 would require a gain of at least 55%. Reaching this level would set a new all-time high, exceeding its present peak of over $126,000 by more than 10%.  Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Market Sell-Offs According to crypto analyst Don, Bitcoin has bounced back after a period of sharp sell-offs that shook out many traders and triggered widespread liquidations. The analyst noted that bulls have stepped in to reclaim critical support and restore confidence in the market as BTC resumes trading within a well-defined ascending triangle pattern.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses From Entities Surges To 2022 Levels Following Crash Below $90,000 The chart shows that the triangle has an upper boundary near $94,324 and a lower boundary around $89,241. Price action inside the formation suggests that Bitcoin is consolidating and likely building momentum for a potential breakout.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto pundit Crypto Wimar has explained why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices crashed, highlighting the continuous selling pressure. The crypto market is also at risk of further downward pressure due to macro factors such as the impending Japan rate hike.  Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP Prices Crashed In an X post, Crypto Wimar revealed that Wintermute has dumped 40% of its holdings over the last three weeks, which has contributed to the crash in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices. The crypto pundit further noted that the market maker is still dumping millions in BTC and ETH on Binance, which puts these coins at risk of further declines.  Related Reading: What’s Happening With The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Recently? The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices are also crashing as crypto market investors brace for a Japan interest rate hike by the BOJ at their December 19 meeting. Polymarket data shows that there is currently a 97.4% chance that the BOJ will increase rates by 25 basis points. A Japan rate hike impacts the crypto market as it puts the yen carry trade in focus, with investors moving to sell their assets before the yen strengthens and their debt becomes more expensive.  Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices have crashed after every Fed rate cut this year. This similar price action is playing out as the Fed lowered rates by 25 bps last week. These crypto assets had seen a notable rebound prior to the Fed rate decision last week, indicating that the cut was already priced in.  Demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP also appears to be dwindling, even among institutional investors. Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin treasury growth is losing momentum, noting that the accumulation pace is slowing despite the fact that 117 new companies added BTC to their treasuries this year. Ethereum treasury company BitMine is also the only company that has continued to accumulate ETH at an impressive pace amid this market downturn.  BTC At Risk Of Drop Below $50,000 Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has indicated that the Bitcoin price could still drop below $50,000, which also puts Ethereum and XRP at risk of crashing. In an X post, the analyst raised the possibility that a BTC bear pennant is forming. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes He noted that this is not a structure that market investors will typically want to see in a bull market. Titan of Crypto added that the structure is still developing, but it is one that is worth monitoring closely.  Meanwhile, the analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could drop below $50,000 as soon as February next year. It is worth mentioning that veteran trader Peter Brandt had also earlier predicted that BTC could drop below $50,000 based on his belief that the flagship crypto is already in a bear market. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The price action of Bitcoin has been somewhat limited in the past few weeks, as the bulls and bears battle for dominance in the market. This indecisiveness has had the premier cryptocurrency oscillating between the $89,000 and $93,000 levels in recent weeks. According to the latest on-chain data, this sideways movement exhibited by the Bitcoin price is associated with the uneven distribution of the coin’s total supply around various levels. This recent on-chain evaluation has also identified the possible next stop for the market leader’s price. BTC Price At Risk Of A 20% Decline?  In a December 13 post on the X platform, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost explained that the Bitcoin price is locked in a battle between $89,000 and $93,000. This on-chain observation is based on the distribution of the BTC supply (using the URPD metric) around different price levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Retracement Meets Mid-Range Battle – Will Bulls Reclaim Momentum? The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) metric tracks the amount of a particular cryptocurrency that was traded at a specific price level. When a large amount of coins is traded at a certain price level, the region tends to serve as support when the price trades above it and resistance when the price is beneath it. According to Darkfost, this explains why the Bitcoin price seems stuck within the $89,000 – $93,000 region (the yellow area in the highlighted chart). The market analyst noted that the zone has seen significant trading activity, justifying the oscillation of the BTC price within the range. What’s new is the “distribution gap” (blue area in the chart) in the $74,000 – $80,000 range, which represents a zone with relatively low historical trading activity. Darkfost explained that these low-liquidity regions tend to attract the Bitcoin price in a bid to rebalance supply and demand. As observed in the chart above, this distribution gap lies between the $74,000 – $80,000 range, meaning that the price of BTC could witness a correction to this level before bouncing back to a new high. A correction to this level could be equivalent to a nearly 20% downturn from the current price point. Furthermore, Darkfost noted that 34% of the total BTC supply distribution is now above the psychological $90,000 level. This trend could make $90,000 a structural support level for the price of Bitcoin over time. It is also worth noting that while a large distribution cluster can be seen around $84,000, it should not be over-interpreted. Darkfost mentioned that the distribution level is not as genuine as it looks, but rather a result of Coinbase’s recent Bitcoin movement. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $90,150, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is facing a critical juncture as its macro retracement converges with a tight mid-range battle between $86,000 and $100,000. With bearish patterns confirmed and short-term support holding, the market now waits to see if bulls can reclaim momentum or if a deeper pullback is on the horizon. Bitcoin Confirms Macro Top: Bearish Phase Underway According to an update from Crypto Patel, Bitcoin appears to have confirmed a market top and is now transitioning into a broader macro retracement phase. The loss of a key bullish support level has shifted the market structure into a bearish phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Structure Strengthens Despite Slower Trading Activity — Here’s Why The chart shows that a Head and Shoulders formation has fully played out. Classical technical rules suggest that the 162% downside projection has already been achieved, reinforcing the view that a cycle top is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Looking at the macro Fibonacci retracement from the bear-market low to the recent peak, several key levels come into focus. These include the 0.382 retracement, which sits near $56,700, and the 0.5 level around $44,000, representing a zone of potential bear-market acceptance. Additionally, the 0.618 retracement near $35,000 stands out as the strongest long-term support area. On the liquidity side, an unfilled fair value gap between $98,000 and $100,000 acts as a magnet for a short-term relief bounce before the broader downtrend resumes. Overall, the macro outlook for Bitcoin remains bearish.  While a bounce toward the $98,000–$100,000 region is possible, the dominant path points toward a deeper move into the $70,000–$60,000 Fibonacci supports. Traders are advised to wait for confirmation and remain flexible, respecting multiple scenarios as the market unfolds. BTC Trapped: $96,000–$100,000 Cap Meets $86,000 Support Bitcoin remains range-bound between two critical zones as noted by CyrilXBT. Price is hovering near the $90,300 area after facing another rejection from the $96,000–$100,000 supply zone and the 50-day EMA. This region has consistently capped upside attempts over the past several weeks. Related Reading: Report Reveals 65% Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies Struggling With Major Unrealized Losses On the downside, buyers continue to show up around the $86,000–$88,000 demand zone, preventing the price from slipping into a broader breakdown and keeping BTC locked within its current range. From a broader market perspective, Bitcoin previously cooled off while tech stocks surged. As momentum in tech begins to slow, BTC is attempting to stabilize, but a decisive reclaim of the $96,000–$100,000 zone is still required to shift momentum. A sustained move above $100,000 would open the door to trend reversal. Conversely, a loss of the $88,000 support could expose Bitcoin to a deeper pullback toward the $72,000–$76,000 region. Until either scenario plays out, price action remains choppy, and patience is warranted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin’s behavior around US Federal Reserve announcements has become one of the most consistent market patterns of the year. After every FOMC update, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has reacted with a noticeable downside move, underscoring how closely the asset is now tied to shifting interest-rate expectations and broader macro sentiment.  What Future FOMC Meetings Could Mean For Bitcoin In an X post, analyst CryptoMichNL has mentioned that the Federal Reserve (FED) is preparing to update the printer from 2021 liquidity settings toward a more supportive 2025 stance. However, this doesn’t mean it will have an immediate impact on the markets, as these things take time. As a result of the update, Bitcoin has dropped after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, but these moves are primarily aimed at flushing out longs through high liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal According to the expert, the actual move on the markets and the direction should come in the next 1-2 weeks, which would give a better outlook going into 2026. The bullish trend has remained intact, and the thesis is still valid. However, BTC shouldn’t break the lows during the FOMC flush. Instead, it should break the $92,000 resistance zone to retest the $100,000 level. Bitcoin is still moving in a choppy pattern, driven by illiquid order books and fast moves in both directions. CryptoMichNL has also highlighted that BTC is still in for a new upward breakout in the coming days to weeks. Despite the volatility, BTC has continued to form higher lows, which is a clear sign that an upward structure is building. CryptoMichNL noted that, as the price doesn’t break down anymore, the heavy correction in the market was highly manipulated and not organic, which is very natural for the market to return to normal. Why Bitcoin Market Structure Remains Intact Despite Deep Pullback Bitcoin has not proven to be any different from the cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the good initial bounce is right off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is taken from the entire cycle move. Realistically, that was the lowest the price could go without breaking the broader weekly market structure. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 According to Daan, the invalidation is clearly the higher-timeframe outlook, and the November lows would become a very uncomfortable place for the bulls. As the year comes to an end, a lot of the 4-year cycle selling should also be diminishing. Meanwhile, Q1 2026 is shaping up to be extremely important as it will likely reveal where the BTC cycle will move next. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

After nearly five years of dormancy, a cluster of Silk Road–linked wallets just moved 33.7 Bitcoin—roughly $3 million—in a sudden on-chain resurgence that immediately brought the BTC price back into focus. While the volume is modest, the combination of its origin, timing, and institutional destination gives it an outsized narrative impact. With Bitcoin already navigating a fragile price range, this development raises concerns about renewed downward pressure. The 33.7 BTC Silk Road BTC Transfer And Its Potential Impact On Bitcoin’s Price The movement began with a series of small outputs originating from early-era Silk Road addresses, all using the old “1…” legacy format. These wallets had last shown activity on February 2, 2021, before abruptly pushing out 176 tiny transactions that were subsequently consolidated into the bech32 address bc1qnysx9sr0s7uw39awr3hh099d5m0lvrnxz7ga54. Roughly a day later, that entire 33.7 BTC was moved again through an intermediary hop and then flagged by chain-analysis dashboards as a Coinbase Prime deposit. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Set To Surge As Sellers Show Signs Of Exhaustion The first alert about the movement came from the X account DarkWebInformer, which spotted the burst of micro-transactions. Even after this transfer, about 416 BTC—roughly $37.5 million—remains untouched in the wider group of connected addresses. This supports the idea that the 33.7 BTC shift was simply a dust-sweep or cleanup action, not a full-scale release of seized holdings. With the operational picture clear, the focus shifts to the price impact. In terms of liquidity, 33.7 BTC is far too small to trigger a market-wide dump. What matters more is the psychological effect. Bitcoin is already trading in a corrective range, and activity linked to Silk Road history can make traders cautious. Although the Coinbase Prime routing points to OTC or custodial handling rather than a spot-market sale, the optics alone can tighten risk models and stoke volatility in the BTC price.  Dormant Wallets And Market Sensitivity Dormant Silk Road wallets have a history of resurfacing. In May 2025, two such wallets moved over 3,400 BTC—worth roughly $322 million—after nearly a decade of inactivity. The funds were transferred into new addresses rather than exchanges, showing that these movements do not automatically trigger selling and are more notable for their on-chain and narrative significance than for their impact on liquidity. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights The Condition That Will Trigger A 2,300% XRP Rally To $50 While these transfers have little direct effect on liquidity, Bitcoin’s current price action makes the market more sensitive to any headline. After approaching $94,000 earlier this month, BTC slipped back to $90,000–$92,000. On X, bearish analysts have highlighted a continuation pattern, with some projecting potential downside toward $88,000 – $89,000. This environment primes traders to react strongly to even minor negative catalysts, including long-dormant wallet activity. Overall, the recent Silk Road transfer is unlikely to trigger a standalone dump. The main pressure stems from Bitcoin’s fragile technical posture, making even small but symbolically significant moves capable of increasing short-term volatility. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto pundit NoLimit has explained why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices have been dumping recently. He specifically raised claims of manipulation, with these crypto prices recording gains and then fully retracing those gains.  In an X post, No Limit stated that the Bitcoin price is dumping because Binance is buying and that Coinbase is dumping a large amount of BTC. The Bitcoin decline has also sparked declines for the Ethereum and Dogecoin prices, which are known to mirror the flagship crypto. Meanwhile, the crypto pundit raised claims of BTC being manipulated.  Pundit Explains What Is Happening With The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices NoLimit pointed out something weird that happened on the order books, noting a massive spike in Binance’s CVD, which didn’t come from retail suddenly buying millions of dollars in BTC. On the other hand, he stated that Coinbase’s CVD fell at the exact same time, indicating that the crypto exchange dumped some BTC, which sparked declines in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Can Hit These ‘Realistic’ Bullish Targets Before The Bear Market Begins The crypto pundit highlighted the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price as liquidity was yanked, creating a thin order book. He further remarked that one venue is getting aggressively bid up while the other is getting drained. NoLimit explained that this is not a normal spot flow and that it is likely coordinated positioning, hedging, arbitrage, or pure manipulation.  NoLimited pointed out that the Bitcoin price reacted instantly to this alleged manipulation, dropping, then pushing to $94,000, and then dropping again. This also dragged down the Ethereum and Dogecoin prices. The crypto pundit asserted that a group of people is playing with the market and that most people won’t notice until it is too late.  He stated that when crypto exchanges completely disagree on net flow like this, it is usually a warning. NoLimit added that the next big move is being set up before the public catches on. The crypto pundit urged market participants to pay attention because things are about to get interesting.  Another Pundit Raises Manipulation Claims Crypto pundit Vivek also indicated that the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices may be manipulated at the moment. He noted that BTC round-tripped from $94,000 to $88,000 three times in the last few days, liquidating both longs and shorts worth over $200 million. The pundit added that this is an example of clear market manipulation to wipe out both leveraged longs and shorts.  Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Go Into A Bear Market? Crypto pundit Bull Theory also recently accused Wall Street trading firm Jane Street of manipulating the Bitcoin price. This came as the pundit noted that BTC, alongside Ethereum and Dogecoin, usually declines at the market open before recovering later. Bull Theory suggested that the firm may be manipulating the market in order to buy at lower prices. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) once again fell below the critical $90,000 mark, even after what many had anticipated to be a bullish event stemming from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to cut rates by a quarter point. Analysts from Bull Theory note several factors contributing to this unexpected downturn. Bitcoin Sell-Off Amid Market Unease The analysts pointed out that the rate cut itself was largely anticipated by investors weeks prior, with a 95% probability already priced into the market.  Ahead of the announcement, they identified that many positioned themselves in expectation of some form of liquidity support from the Fed, leading to a rally in Bitcoin prices.  However, when the actual cut and the accompanying plan for $40 billion in monthly T-bill purchases were confirmed, many of these “whales”—large investors in the market—began to take profits.  Related Reading: Strategy Calls For Withdrawal Of MSCI’s Exclusion Plan For Digital Asset Treasury Companies Adding to the market’s unease was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-announcement press conference, where he highlighted persistent weaknesses in the labor market and ongoing inflation concerns. Furthermore, the Fed’s dot plot projections indicated the likelihood of only one additional rate cut in 2026. The situation was compounded by disappointing earnings results from Oracle, which reported its second quarter’s financials after the market’s close. The tech giant missed its adjusted revenue estimates, and higher capital expenditure projections led the stock to plunge by more than 11% in after-hours trading.  This drop also negatively impacted US stock futures, as concerns grew that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be peaking. The widespread fear from Oracle’s results quickly spread from equities into the cryptocurrency space. Ultimately, all three factors converged to create a significant sell-off: the rate cut was already factored into the market, liquidity trades had been preemptively enacted, and Powell’s remarks did not provide the strong easing signal that some traders had hoped for.  Positive Liquidity Conditions Expected In 2026 Interestingly, Bull Theory analysts assert that the crypto market’s recent decline is not indicative of a fundamental shift towards bearish conditions but rather an overreaction based on high expectations leading up to the Fed’s announcement.  The Fed has now enacted rate cuts three times in as many meetings, and their plans to purchase $40 billion in T-bills over the next month are designed to inject liquidity into the markets.  Moreover, Powell indicated that further rate hikes are not on the horizon as a base case, and forecasts for solid economic growth next year remain intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Neither In A Bull Nor Bear Market: Expert Explains The Setup Although job gains may have been overstated, suggesting a softer labor market, this could afford the Fed greater flexibility to ease monetary conditions in the future if necessary.  The current market movements illustrate that the dumping of assets was largely driven by overly optimistic expectations rather than any deterioration in underlying fundamentals. Looking ahead, the analysts believe that next year is expected to be more favorable for Bitcoin and broader crypto prices in terms of liquidity, contrasting sharply with the conditions projected for 2025.  Bitcoin recovered above $91,100 as of this writing, amid rising volatility. This puts the top cryptocurrency 26% behind its all-time high of $126,000, set in October of this year.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is trading in a world where headlines still scream “bull” or “bear” while the underlying structure quietly refuses to play along. After spiking to an all-time high in the $124,000–$126,000 zone in early October and then shedding roughly a third of its value into November, BTC now sits in the low-$90,000s, still dominant but clearly winded. Into that confusion steps pseudonymous renowned crypto industry veteran plur daddy (@plur_daddy) who suggests the market may be in neither regime at all. “Because of the 4 year cycle, all crypto market participants are primed to view the market as either in a bull or bear phase,” he wrote on X. “What if, as a part of the market maturing, we are simply in an extended consolidation window where overhead supply is being absorbed?” It is a simple framing shift with fairly big implications. He points to gold, which “chopped between $1,650–2,050 from April 2020 to March 2024,” and argues it is “logical to assume that as BTC evolves, it will exhibit more gold-like behaviors.” In other words: not dead, not euphoric, just… stuck in a fat, liquidity-soaked range where supply changes hands from weak to strong for longer than traders raised on clean halving cycles are emotionally prepared to tolerate. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50% The range dynamics are already visible at the top end. According to plur, “sellers emerged aggressively whenever price entered the $120k range.” He notes there are “strong arguments” those sellers were driven by the four-year cycle meme, but “equally good arguments” they were reacting to more prosaic considerations: age, price, liquidity, thesis change, and “emerging tail risks.” If BTC revisits that zone, he thinks it is “rational for people to front run that, which helps reinforce the range.” Classic reflexivity: people remembering the last top create the next one. On the downside, he is not in the doom camp. “This also dovetails with my intuitive feeling that the lows may be in, or at the least not significantly lower than what we have seen, but upside also being capped,” he wrote, adding that liquidity conditions are “poised to moderately improve,” creating room for a bounce – just not necessarily a new regime. Or as he put it with some restraint, he’d “be cautious about betting on regime change.” Bitcoin Market Puzzled: QE Or Not QE? That “moderate improvement” is not theoretical. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, taking the Fed funds target to 3.50–3.75%, alongside a surprise announcement: roughly $40 billion a month in “reserve management purchases” (RMPs) of short-dated Treasuries, starting December 12 and guided to remain elevated for several months. The official line is that this is a technical step to keep reserves “ample” and repo markets functioning, not a new round of QE. Macro voices on X are, unsurprisingly, not unified on that distinction. Plur Daddy added via X: “This is different from QE because the main way that QE works is through pulling duration out of the market, forcing market participants to move up the risk curve. However, they snuck in there that they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out. This is more bullish than expected, and helps bridge market liquidity into the new year.” Miad Kasravi (@ZFXtrading) insists, “FED is NOT doing QE. Just expanding balance sheet via Money-market displacement,” arguing that when the Fed buys bills, the prior holder gets cash that “has to go somewhere” and “some of it seeps into credit, equities, crypto.” Related Reading: Wall Street Giant Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Price To Hit $1 Million By 2033 LondonCryptoClub takes the gloves off. In his view, the Fed is “basically going to print money to keep funding this deficit for as long and as large as needed,” adding that “the debasement trade is on autopilot mode.” He backs Lyn Alden’s earlier remark that “it’s money printing. Whether it’s QE or not is more semantics. Fed won’t call it QE since it’s not duration and it’s not for economic stimulus.” Lyn Alden nails it Markets are going to tie themselves up arguing over the semantics and overcomplicating it Yet they’re printing money and monetising the deficit It’s all the same thing. Admittedly, this is QE-lite…for now at least Believe it or not, market participants… https://t.co/cf7QLogWom — LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) December 10, 2025 Peter Schiff, predictably but not entirely irrationally, commented via X: “QE by any other name is still inflation. The Fed just announced it will be buying T-bills “on an ongoing basis.” Given that long-term rates will rise on this inflationary policy shift, it won’t be long before the Fed expands and extends QE5 to longer-dated maturities. Got gold?” So The Takeaway Is? As Plur notes, these operations expand bank reserves and ease repo stress; the Fed will primarily buy T-bills, but “they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out.” That edges the program closer to “QE-lite” than pure plumbing. It is supportive for risk assets and it arrives precisely during the year-end liquidity doldrums, with further balance-sheet expansion mechanisms waiting in the wings. For Bitcoin, the uncomfortable answer right now is that both things can be true: the “debasement trade” is structurally alive, while price action behaves like a large, semi-institutional asset digesting a brutal rally and a fresh macro shock. Another six to eighteen months of rangebound churn, as plur suggests, “wouldn’t be strange at all.” Whether you label that bull, bear, or just purgatory is mostly a narrative choice. Markets, frankly, will trade it the same either way. At press time, BTC traded at $90,060. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A recent post by crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards on X suggests that the current Bitcoin structure is giving bears “the perfect opportunity” to short the market down to $40,000. His message was paired with a chart showing Bitcoin falling below an important resistance ever since it broke below $100,000, creating what appears to be a clean continuation setup for traders expecting deeper losses.  However, although the chart highlights a similar bearish structure in 2022, the analysis behind his post points to a more layered interpretation of what may come next for Bitcoin. The Setup Bears Believe Is Finally Here In the chart he shared, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoin’s latest breakdown resembles the 2022 pattern, when the price action rejected a major resistance level and fell sharply into what later became a large accumulation zone.  The current structure shows a similar rejection just above the $100,000 zone, followed by a drop below the weekly EMA50. This move has brought Bitcoin into a region that is similar to the range where accumulation formed in the earlier cycle.  An overlay of the new price action on top of the previous one shows the path downward seems almost predetermined, creating the impression that the Bitcoin price is setting up a natural decline to as low as $40,000 in the coming weeks and months. Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,240. A crash to $40,000 would mean wiping out roughly 55% of its value from here, effectively erasing the entire progress it has built over the past two years. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X Why The Perfect Short Is Not The Analyst’s Real Message After the post gained traction, Stockmoney Lizards stepped in to clarify that his message had been taken too literally. His invitation for traders to short down to $40,000 was intentionally exaggerated, and the market does not behave this way.  He clarified that he does not foresee a collapse into a deep bear market. Instead, he believes Bitcoin may consolidate, possibly sweep local lows, but not have a prolonged breakdown. Furthermore, he noted that the worst-case scenario would be a touch of the weekly EMA200, and this is not a place where bull markets end. The real midterm prediction is a higher move for the Bitcoin price. Before posting the supposedly bearish prediction, Stockmoney Lizards had shared another analysis describing Bitcoin as being close to the endboss at the weekly EMA50 indicator.  Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X That earlier chart offered a clearer view of his actual stance. In it, he predicted that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical pivot and that he expected upward movement into the end of December and Q1 2025. Therefore, the weekly EMA50 is the barrier that Bitcoin needs to reclaim in order to launch its next phase of bullish momentum. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022.  Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position.  Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year.  Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day.  These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion.  Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000.  Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

An experiment in Prague might end up mattering more for Bitcoin than the usual ETF inflow chart. Speaking on the “Crypto In America” show on 10 December, Coinbase Head of Institutional John D’Agostino highlighted that the Czech National Bank has begun testing Bitcoin in its national treasury and for payments, and argued that this sort of move by a Eurozone central bank is likely to spread. Czech Bitcoin Pilot Could Spread Across Eurozone “The Czech national bank chose very well in their service providers,” he said, adding that the central bank is “putting Bitcoin on their national treasury and they are experimenting with and learning in real time using Bitcoin for payments.” The pilot is small — “a million dollars of Bitcoin” — but for D’Agostino the signal is not in the size, it is in who is doing it and why. He drew a deliberate contrast with earlier sovereign experiments: “No disrespect to El Salvador… this wasn’t a ‘I want to shake up my economy because I’m heading in the wrong direction’… This is, we are a stable Euro zone country… we don’t have to do this.” Related Reading: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50% Instead, the Czech move followed “all the bells and whistles” of a traditional process: RFPs, vendor selection, formal adoption into policy. That, he suggested, is exactly what makes it dangerous — for the status quo. “That type of thing is contagious and I can see more Euro zone [countries] following suit very very shortly,” he said. The comment did not come in isolation. Throughout the interview, D’Agostino hammered a consistent thesis: institutional adoption has always been less about perfect regulatory clarity and more about liquidity, credible market structure and having the “right” types of participants in the pool. “I’ve always been a bit of a skeptic on the argument that the reason institutions haven’t invested… is regulatory clarity,” he said. Clarity is “top three,” but in his ranking it comes after liquidity and sits alongside alpha potential. If two of the three are present, “people will find a way.” Bitcoin’s spot ETFs, in his view, have already created something the asset previously lacked: a cohort of structurally compelled participants. “The ETFs, in my view, are kind of the surrogate commercial users of Bitcoin,” he argued. They “have to rebalance… it’s codified into their business model,” acting as a stabilizing force similar to industrial users in commodities markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Lacks Fresh Momentum As Realized Cap Growth Still Declining A Eurozone central bank experimenting with Bitcoin on its balance sheet pushes that logic one step further up the food chain. D’Agostino did not spell out a grand theory of “Bitcoin as reserve asset” — he was careful, almost lawyerly, about what he could say — but the implication is not terribly subtle: when a central bank with access to normal EU funding “doesn’t have to do this” and still chooses to, it normalizes Bitcoin inside the most conservative layer of the monetary system. That sits alongside a broader reputational repair job he thinks the industry still has to finish. Crypto, he argued, has had no more structural failures than other markets — he pointed to the London Metal Exchange’s cancellation of billions in nickel trades as an under-discussed parallel to FTX — but “we tend to push the jokers to positions of prominence,” whereas TradFi “does a good job of hiding their jokers.” Between cleaner narratives, ETF-driven “surrogate” demand and now a Eurozone central bank quietly wiring a million dollars into Bitcoin, D’Agostino’s message was that the institutional story is less about a sudden wave and more about erosion. “There’s no wave,” he said earlier in the conversation. “It’s this gradual erosion as opposed to this crashing wave.” If he is right about the Czech experiment being contagious, that erosion may soon be happening from the inside of the Euro system as well, not just from asset managers in New York. At press time, BTC traded at $90,234. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com