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Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. “I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle,” Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. “I’m not calling for this to be the top in the cycle,” he clarified, “but I’m saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance.” Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. “In the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often.” Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. “We are now… 29 months into the cycle,” he said, “so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.” Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. “There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.” In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic. “With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.” The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. “If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.” Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. “I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down to $48K or lower.’” Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. “I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital… and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes.” At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price continues to lead the market and with each crash, it has taken down the altcoin market with it. Amid this, Ethereum has performed especially poorly, returning to prices not seen since seven years ago. As Donald Trump’s tariff situation rocks the market, the question on everyone’s lips is, where is the Bitcoin price headed from here? Market Experts Chime In On Bitcoin Price Crypto market sentiment has tanked to levels not seen in years with the Bitcoin crash into the $ 70,000 territory, and according to many, the battle is far from over. One of the experts who have said that the Bitcoin price could stay low during this time is Alex Guts, CEO of Banxe. Related Reading: Ripple Announces $1.25B Acquisition Of Hidden Road To Set Major Milestone According to Guts, the BTC price could continue to trade in a tight $72,000-$84,000 range during this time. Looking over for the long-term, the CEO sees “prospects staying bullish as adoption and policy support grow.” On the same note, while Trump’s policies and tariff wars have caused the markets to tank, expectations remain that this could be good for the markets in the long term. In an analysis shared with NewsBTC, a Bitunix expert analyst pointed out that what the Trump administration is doing is “igniting a regulatory renaissance for crypto.” He points out that all of the President’s actions since he took office have shown this, especially with his empowerment of crypto leaders. So, despite the market being down now, Trump’s moves could end up igniting further growth for the market. The Bitunix analyst warns that investors should not allow the news of the tariff wars to cloud their judgment. He outlines that sometimes it is imperative to implement new things in order to fix what is broken, likening it to ‘taking medicine’. As for where the Bitcoin price could be headed next from here, the expert analyst told NewsBTC: “Well, the recent price drop in major cryptocurrencies has worried retail investors, but we believe that Bitcoin could potentially reach $117k after the dust settles.” The Sad State Of Affairs Of ETH/BTC Despite being the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world, the Ethereum price has performed poorly, especially in comparison to Bitcoin. Looking at the ETH/BTC chart, there seems to be no support in sight as the crash continues. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000 So far, Ethereum has fallen to 0.01889 BTC, a level that has not been recorded since 2019. This suggests that Ethereum has completely retraced its gains from the past six years, plunging believers and supporters into deep losses. For a turnaround for Ethereum, it seems major news would have to come out to propel a recovery. Otherwise, the lack of support suggests that Ethereum holders have more turbulence ahead of them to deal with. Featured image from Dall.E, Chart from TradingView.com

In a thread on X, business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains where the global economy currently stands and what that means for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Describing what he terms a “short and shallow” full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025, Tomas believes this fleeting cycle was masked in part by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar. He explains, “The general gist of the theory was that we saw an abnormal, ‘short and shallow’ full business cycle over recent years that suppressed traditional PMI measures both in the US and globally.” According to Tomas, his analysis relies on four real-time measures of the global economy, which he tracked in inverted trade-weighted dollar index, Baltic Dry Index, 10-year Chinese Government bond yields, and the copper/gold ratio. By converting these individual data points into rolling yearly z-scores, he created an “equal-weighted composite z-score” he calls the Global Economy Index (GEI). He notes, “You can see clearly here that the GEI was underwhelming to the upside in 2023 and 2024 (didn’t reach the ‘business cycle peaking zone’). And then fell to levels typically correlated with the end of a business cycle in late 2024/early 2025 (‘business cycle troughing zone’).” This composite measure appeared to lead US Manufacturing PMI data prior to the disruptive events of 2020, and Tomas highlights that relationship by shifting the GEI forward by six months. He observes a break in the pattern around the 2020 pandemic and the following large-scale central bank interventions, yet still sees the possibility that GEI’s recent rebound indicates a new “fresh” business cycle taking hold, potentially peaking around late 2026 or 2027. “Based on historical precedent,” he writes, “this new business cycle could reasonably be expected to peak around late 2026/2027.” He also addresses the interplay between GEI, equities, and PMIs, remarking that the stock market usually leads business survey measures but tends to lag the GEI. “If we peel back the layers of the onion, we find the stock market generally leads PMI measures but generally lags the GEI, so it lives somewhere in the middle, most of the time,” he says. He points out that the S&P 500 recently slipped into negative year-over-year territory, which he sees as typical of end-of-cycle price behavior. “The S&P 500 has now hit what would historically be an acceptable ‘end of business cycle bottoming level.’” The Implications For Bitcoin Bitcoin, however, remains the wildcard. Tomas acknowledges that the leading-lag relationship of the GEI, stock market, and PMIs might normally apply to most risk assets, yet this time around, Bitcoin appears to be deviating from its usual volatility in relation to the macro environment. “The piece of the jigsaw that doesn’t seem to fit at all (by historical precedent) is Bitcoin,” he writes. He acknowledges that it has so far resisted typical “end of business cycle” drawdowns, and he speculates on whether “Bitcoin has just grown up and become less volatile and less sensitive to business cycle swings — potentially due to ETFs and higher institutional interest.” Yet he also entertains the possibility that Bitcoin might simply be lagging the stock market. Regardless, “if Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle,” Tomas warns, “this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action.” Tomas concludes by cautioning that if the global economy index fails to maintain its recent bounce and instead rolls over to a new low, the outlook could turn more bearish, especially if so-called tariff headwinds worsen. He speculates that part of the rebound seen in copper/gold and shipping rates in early 2025 may have been frontloaded by tariff announcements, hinting that the recovery in those metrics might not be as robust as it appears on the surface. Still, the key takeaway from his perspective is that equities and the broader business cycle appear to be in late-stage territory, and if his assessment holds, a new cycle could begin soon — one that runs long enough to postpone any meaningful Bitcoin peak until late 2026 or even 2027, calling into question any assumptions about the enduring validity of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. “Another point to note is that the GEI is currently signaling the start of a new business cycle, which could reasonably be expected to peak in late 2026/2027. If Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle, this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action,” Tomas concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $79,428. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $74,000 has left traders speculating whether the cryptocurrency has finally hit a bottom. However, a CMT-certified analyst suggests that Bitcoin’s price correction is far from over. He has predicted an even deeper pullback to $38,000 – $42,000, which he identifies as Bitcoin’s final price bottom.   In a detailed Elliott Wave-based chart analysis, CMT-certified technical analyst Tony Severino outlines a classic 5-wave impulsive structure that appears to have completed its final leg near $85,000. Severino’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s latest decline to $74,000 is merely the start of a broader ABC corrective pattern, potentially driving the cryptocurrency down to a bottom in the range of $38,000 – $42,000. New Bitcoin Price Bottom Incoming In Bitcoin’s 5-wave impulse structure, Wave 1 began with a sharp bear market low, followed by Wave 2, a corrective pullback. Wave 3 marked the strongest upward move, subdivided into five smaller waves (i to v). After the market paused briefly for a pullback in Wave 4, Wave 5 kicked off with a final push toward a peak near $85,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin RSI Targets Daily Retest That Triggered 2024 Price Rally, What Happened Last Time Following the top of Wave 5, Bitcoin’s ABC corrective structure began, marked by the red line on the chart. According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency is currently completing Wave A of this corrective pattern, which is expected to bottom out near $62,000 – $65,000 by June 2025. This price range coincides with the previous main correction zone around Wave 4, which is a common target for Wave A retracements.  Notably, a bigger concern comes after Bitcoin’s possible crash to $65,000 – $62,000. The analyst anticipates a short-lived bounce in Wave B, followed by a more pronounced decline in Wave C. This downturn is expected to push the Bitcoin price to its final bottom target between $38,000 and $42,000 by April 2026. This pullback target further aligns with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3, which often serves as a key retracement zone during market corrections.   Severino has confirmed through his technical analysis that the market is now in a bear phase. His price chart incorporates cyclical timing models, marking a complete market cycle characterized by a bull market peak in 2025, followed by a bear market extending into mid-2026. This timeline is consistent with Bitcoin’s typical four-year halving cycle, where the market reaches its peak the year after the halving event before entering a bear market phase.  Analyst Flags Death Cross In BTC’s Chart According to reports from BarChart on X, Bitcoin has just formed a Death Cross on its price chart for the first time since September 2024. A Death Cross occurs when the 50 Moving Average (MA) crosses below the 200 MA.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Marks 114 Weeks In Active Buy Signal On The SuperTrend Weekly, But Things Could Turn Bad If This Happens This distinct chart pattern is often considered a bearish sign, indicating that a potential downtrend might be on the horizon. Considering Bitcoin’s price has declined to $78,900 at press time, the appearance of a Death Cross indicates a possibility of further breakdown and consolidation. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price movement is starting to look positive after a brief stretch of crashes on Sunday and Monday. After breaking down to $74,000 on Monday, bearish momentum looked ready to drag Bitcoin’s price down further. However, bulls quickly stepped in to defend the dip. Their aggressive buying has pushed the price back up, with Bitcoin now moving towards the $80,000 level again.  This recent crash is interesting because it aligns almost perfectly with a high-telling metric. This metric not only foreshadowed the crash, but it is now pointing to a powerful upward move for the next Bitcoin rally. Analyst Says Global M2 Is A Leading Signal For Bitcoin’s Next Move Colin, a well-followed crypto analyst on X, recently drew attention to Bitcoin’s relationship with the global M2 money supply. Taking to social media platform X, the analyst shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s price correlation with the Global M2 Money Supply, although with a 108-day offset. It almost looks like the Global M2 Money Supply is working as a template for Bitcoin’s price action, as the leading cryptocurrency has been tracing this offest almost step by step since August 2024. Related Reading: Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 Money Supply Shows A Big Move Coming, Here’s The Target In his latest post, Colin explained that Bitcoin continues to “follow Global M2 like glue.” The chart he shared overlays Bitcoin’s candlestick movements with a yellow line representing the M2 supply offset by that duration. The result is a striking correlation that Colin has consistently tracked for over a year.  The chart below highlights what Colin labeled a mini-rally that failed and another crash, which has played out just as M2 had predicted. Now, with Bitcoin starting April with this crash, the M2 indicator suggests that it could very well blast off anytime soon. However, Colin noted that the price could consolidate further or experience minor dips before the anticipated rally. The analyst noted that the leading cryptocurrency is not fully out of the woods. But if lucky, it will be mostly sideways from here until the blastoff shown by the M2, which is not until May. May Blast-Off? BTC’s Rally Setup Strengthens Despite Short-Term Crash Colin’s forecast is based on the idea that Bitcoin could begin a major upward move by early May, which he called a May “blast-off.” The yellow M2 projection curve on his chart shows a steep climb ahead starting from May 1, indicating the possibility of Bitcoin rallying toward $128,000 if the correlation remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Struggles: Crypto Analyst Bucks Back Against Bearish Sentiment, Top Is Not In However, the analyst did not forgo the short-term risks that Bitcoin and the entire crypto market might face in April. These short-term risks are based on policy concerns regarding the “Trump tariffs,” which have set the investing markets ablaze in the past few days.  The coming weeks will be important for the outcome of this blastoff. Should it hold above the $78,000–$80,000 level while maintaining alignment with the Global M2 Money Supply, May could usher in the parabolic move Colin is hinting at. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,255, up by 5.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Speculation over a purported White House plan to pause tariffs for ninety days on all countries except China sent markets into a frenzy earlier today, triggering abrupt price reversals across equities, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In a quick-fire series of conflicting updates, the rumor initially floated at around 10:10 AM ET, sparked momentum in risk assets, and was eventually deemed “fake news” by the White House. The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) described the chronology on X, noting: “What just happened? At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a ‘90-day tariff pause.’ At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China. By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low.” Related Reading: Understanding Bitcoin Struggles: Why Realized Cap Indicates A Bear Market However, only seven minutes later, at 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was ‘unaware’ of Trump considering a 90-day pause. “At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect. At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines ‘fake news.’ By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior. Never in history have we seen something like this,” The Kobeissi Letter writes. The mere suggestion of a temporary reprieve from tariffs managed to shift sentiment rapidly in both equity and crypto markets. BTC, which was trading around $75,805 at the time, soared by roughly 7.2% to surpass $81,200 within half an hour. Once confirmation arrived that no such pause was planned, the gains evaporated almost as fast as they had arrived, pulling Bitcoin back to roughly $77,560. The abrupt turn of events unleashed a wave of commentary among crypto observers. Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) remarked that “The fake news tweet showed there’s a lot of sidelined capital at least for relief rally and the risk is to the upside on any positive news at least temporarily.” Will Clemente III cautioned: “Bear take: Liquidity is bad and this volatility might break something. Bull take: This headline was the cointelegraph intern BTC ETF headline but for equities.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bullish Fate Hinges On These 2 Resistance Zones – Details Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, remarked that “Bitcoin’s current price drawdown is about to become the largest of the current cycle,” illustrating his point with a chart that showed BTC’s correction reaching -26.62%, matching the scale of August 2024’s correction. Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) invoked BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s observation that another 20% market drop is not out of the question, saying: “That’s the thing. Under normal circumstances, probability of such scenarios or things such as stagflation are so low you can just brush them off. Trump opened up the left tail => anything is possible. We are one headline away from a 7% candle in either direction.” Podcast host Felix Jauvin (@fejau_inc) agrees: “What’s so crazy about this crash vs other is its entirely self-willed and could be reversed in an instant on one tweet. Has there ever been anything like that?” In the midst of the turmoil, European Union Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed a willingness to seek solutions, stating, “Europe is ready to negotiate with the US,” including the possibility of zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial goods. At press time, BTC traded at $78,824. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Melika Trader has warned of a volume drop that could trigger a 60% Bitcoin price crash. The analyst provided an in-depth analysis of what this price crash could mean and if it would mark the end of the bull run.  How The Bitcoin Price Could Crash By 60% And Drop To $49,000 In a TradingView post, Melika Trader revealed how the Bitcoin price could crash by 60% and drop to $49,000. The analyst noted that BTC is hanging just above a critical support zone, an area he claimed many traders recognize as the “most important support level” from a volume perspective on Binance.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Has Entered The ‘Ideal Buy Zone’, Here’s Why His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could suffer a 60% drop once it loses the former trend line at $75,000. The flagship crypto is also in danger, having lost the critical support at around $83,000. This drop to $49,000 would bring BTC back toward the high-volume range near $30,000.  This provides an ultra-bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, Melika Trader raised a twist, stating that only 20% of traders might actually lose. He noted that, according to Binance’s volume profile data, the majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.  The analyst further mentioned that most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022/2023 accumulation range. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) is also said to show significant support below the current Bitcoin price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels. Melika Trader remarked that only a minority of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70,000.  Meanwhile, the majority of investors are still in profit or break-even, even if the Bitcoin price retraces back to its base. As such, most traders are safe, as BTC risks a drop to as low as $49,000.  Why BTC’s Bull Market Is Over CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently asserted that BTC’s bull market is over amid the Bitcoin price decline. He alluded to the ‘Realized Cap’ metric to explain his confidence that the bull run is over. The CryptoQuant CEO noted that if Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in but prices aren’t rising.  Related Reading: Why Buying Bitcoin Now Is Better Than Later As BTC Price Consolidates Within Falling Wedge Ki Young Ju noted that this is a clear bearish signal, and this is what is currently happening. Capital is entering the market right now, but the Bitcoin price isn’t responding, which he claims is typical of a bear market. The CryptoQuant CEO explained that even large purchases like MicroStrategy’s aren’t pushing prices up because there is too much sell pressure at the moment.  Ki Young Ju again affirmed that current data points to the Bitcoin price being in a bear market. He noted that sell pressure could ease anytime but warned that historically, real reversals take at least six months. As such, the CryptoQuant CEO believes a short-term rally seems unlikely.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $78,000 mark on Sunday, trading at $77,840, reflecting a 6% decline as investors react to significant volatility in broader financial markets. This drop follows the worst decline in US equities since 2020, triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of restrictive global tariffs.  The flagship cryptocurrency, which traded above $80,000 for much of the year, is now down 28% from its all-time high (ATH) of $109,000 in January, which was also curiously boosted by Trump’s election victory last November. Trump’s Tariffs Trigger $247 Million In Bitcoin Liquidations Typically, Bitcoin trades in tandem with large tech stocks and is viewed by many traders as a leading indicator of market sentiment. Interestingly, last week, Bitcoin held steady between $82,000 and $83,000 even as stocks and gold tumbled.  However, CNBC attributes the recent announcement by President Donald Trump of tariffs to a shift in investor sentiment, causing a wave of sell-offs in the crypto market affecting the largest cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: XRP Will Explode—And This Korean Expert Says He’ll Be ‘Laughing’ At Critics The tariffs, which apply to all imports and include additional duties on major trading partners, have raised fears of a potential global trade war. This uncertainty has prompted investors to divest from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.  In the wake of these developments affecting the entire crypto ecosystem, the leading cryptocurrency experienced over $247 million in long liquidations in just 24 hours since Saturday, with Ethereum (ETH) facing $217 million in similar liquidations during the same time frame. Major Cryptos Plunge Amid Global Trade War Fears Over the weekend, as fears of further market carnage loomed, investors rushed to sell their cryptocurrency holdings. The anxiety surrounding Trump’s tariffs has not only affected Bitcoin but has also reverberated through the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, with other coins Solana (SOL) experiencing declines of approximately 12%. The ramifications of the tariff announcement have been felt across global financial markets. In the wake of the news, the S&P Global Broad Market Index recorded a staggering loss of $7.46 trillion in market value, with the U.S. stock market alone shedding $5.87 trillion. The losses extend beyond American markets, as other major global markets saw a decline of $1.59 trillion. Related Reading: Ethereum, Solana And Cardano Trend After Crypto Crash – Here’s What You Should Know As Bitcoin continues to reflect broader market trends, it has now seen a 15% drop in 2025. Analysts suggest that absent any significant crypto-specific catalysts, Bitcoin will likely continue to move in tandem with equities, overshadowed by fears of a global recession.  These economic uncertainties present a challenging landscape for cryptocurrencies, which were initially expected to benefit from favorable regulatory developments this year. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC), the market’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to trend lower, recent insights from industry experts highlight critical factors influencing BTC’s trajectory. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, the current Bitcoin bull cycle may be coming to an end. This assertion is grounded in the concept of Realized Cap, a metric that quantifies the actual capital entering the BTC market through on-chain activity. Insights From Ki Young Ju For context, the Realized Cap metric operates on a straightforward premise: when Bitcoin enters a wallet, it represents a purchase, and when it leaves, it signifies a sale.  By calculating the average cost basis for each wallet and multiplying it by the amount of BTC held, Ju derives the total Realized Cap. This metric reflects the total capital that has genuinely entered the BTC ecosystem, contrasting sharply with market capitalization, which is determined by the last traded price on exchanges. Related Reading: Solana Faces Defining Level At $120 – Will History Repeat? A common misconception, according to Ju, is that a small purchase, such as $10 worth of Bitcoin, only increases market capitalization by that same amount. In reality, prices are influenced by the balance of buy and sell orders on the order book.  Low sell pressure means that even modest buys can significantly elevate prices and, consequently, market cap. This phenomenon was notably exploited by MicroStrategy (MSTR), which issued convertible bonds to acquire Bitcoin, thereby inflating the paper value of its holdings far beyond the initial capital deployed. Key Price Levels For Bitcoin Currently, Bitcoin appears to be in a challenging position, dropping below the key $80,000 mark. When sell pressure is high, even substantial purchases fail to affect prices, as seen when Bitcoin traded near its all-time high of nearly $100,000. Despite massive trading volumes, the price remained stagnant. Ju points out that if Realized Cap is increasing but market cap is either flat or declining, it signals a bearish trend. This indicates that while capital is entering the market, it is not translating into price appreciation—a hallmark of a bear market.  Conversely, if market capitalization is rising while Realized Cap remains stable, it suggests that even minimal new investment is driving prices up, indicative of a bull market. Presently, data suggests that Bitcoin is experiencing the former scenario: capital is flowing in, but prices are not responding positively. Historically, significant market reversals require at least six months to manifest, making a short-term rally seem unlikely. Related Reading: Ethereum Tanks Nearly 50% As Bitcoin Holds Stronger In Q1 Adding to the complexity, market expert Ali Martinez has identified key resistance levels that Bitcoin must overcome to regain upward momentum.  Notably, there is a major resistance cluster at $87,000, where the 50-day moving average, 200-day moving average, and a descending trendline from the all-time high converge. For Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory, the expert asserts that BTC must break through critical resistance points at $85,470 and $92,950. Additionally, support at $80,450 remains vital; failure to hold this level could lead to further declines. As of now, the leading cryptocurrency trades at $78,379, recording a 6% decline on Sunday.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Following the downturn in the United States’ traditional markets, there has been increased commentary about the crypto bull cycle and its current phase. Nonetheless, the Bitcoin market has remained relatively steady compared to the blue-chip stocks in the US equities market over the past few days.  The price action of Bitcoin has been disappointing yet again this weekend, slipping below the $83,000 mark in the early hours of Saturday, April 5. A prominent crypto analyst has emerged with fresh insight on the future trajectory of the premier cryptocurrency.   BTC Price At Risk Of Sales Pressure? In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. reviewed how the Bitcoin price is faring amid the turbulent macroeconomic headwinds. The relevant on-chain indicator here is the Bitcoin Sales Pressure model, which combines the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metrics. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Who Called Ethereum Price Dump Says ETH Is Now Undervalued, Time To Buy? Based on the NUPL and SOPR indicators, the Bitcoin Sales Pressure model tracks when long-term holders may begin selling off their assets, often marking cyclical tops or the start of downward pressure in the market. According to Adler Jr., genuine sales pressure for a digital asset may emerge after 800 days. The analyst noted: If, during a bullish rally, no serious negative event akin to a “Black Swan” occurs – triggering fear and forced selling – it could take over 1000 days for sales pressure to develop. As observed in the chart above, the indicator has reached the 800-day mark, which suggests an increased risk for genuine sales pressure. However, the Bitcoin price has been displaying strength despite the brewing global trade war weighing down on the US equities market. Adler Jr. attributed BTC’s show of resilience to institutional buying, the lack of sales pressure in the spot market, and neutral sentiment in the futures market. The stock market atmosphere does not seem set for recovery, especially with the VIX (volatility index) rising above 30 while the S&P 500 falling by more than 4%. Crossing these thresholds has been historically associated with further downward pressure for the stock market. In response to the dwindling market sentiment, US President Donald Trump is believed to have called on the Federal Reserve to resume aggressive monetary stimulus. “We all understand that this could stimulate market growth,” Adler Jr. added. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $83,350, reflecting an almost 1% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Is Korea Propping Up The XRP Price? Pundit Explains What’s Happening Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

On Thursday, April 3, United States President Donald Trump announced new trade tariffs on goods from different countries, with some Asian nations facing even steeper fees. While the US financial markets reacted negatively to this economic action, the crypto and Bitcoin markets have been able to withstand the global macroeconomic pressure.  Bitcoin Price Overview According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin has barely made any significant move over the last seven days. However, this piece of data does not tell the entire story, as the premier cryptocurrency made a play for the $87,000 mark on Wednesday, April 2, before recently falling back to around $84,000. The price of Bitcoin is being closely watched by market participants and speculators, especially considering the underwhelming performance of the US equities market over the past two days. This recent development suggests that the world’s largest cryptocurrency might be decorrelating from the traditional markets. Related Reading: Is Korea Propping Up The XRP Price? Pundit Explains What’s Happening As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency stands at around $84,000, reflecting an over 2% increase in the past 24 hours. This single-day performance might bode well for what is to come over the weekend, especially as the Bitcoin price has not particularly impressed at the latter end of each week so far in 2025. Is A BTC Price Bounce On The Horizon?  In a new post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn revealed that the Bitcoin bulls might be on the move again. This on-chain observation is based on changes in the Taker Buy Volume, a metric that measures the total volume of buy orders filled by takers in perpetual swaps of a specific cryptocurrency. In the crypto trading context, a taker refers to a market participant who places an order matched with an existing order on the order book. Hence, the Taker Buy Volume indicates the total amount of a cryptocurrency (BTC, in this scenario) purchased by these market participants within a specific period. Maartunn mentioned in his post that the “taker buyers” are beginning to step into the market, with the buy volume surpassing a significant milestone. According to the on-chain analyst, the Bitcoin Taker Buy Volume on all centralized exchanges recently crossed 100 million BTC to around 101.18 million BTC. Historically, notable upticks in the Taker Buy Volume have often preceded a bullish surge in the price of Bitcoin. Going by this trend, Maartunn urged to watch out for the BTC price action over the next few days. Related Reading: Toncoin Takes A Hit With 12% Correction After Failing To Break $4.34, More Pain? Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView

Following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, recession probabilities have spiked across leading economic trackers, putting Bitcoin on high alert. Kalshi’s prediction markets now stand at 53%, an 8.1% jump from prior estimates, and Polymarket’s odds have surged to 54%. Tariff Shock And Rising Recession Odds After President Trump’s latest move to impose higher duties—“Liberation Day” tariffs targeting key US trading partners, including a 34% levy on imports from China and 20% on those from the European Union—multiple forecasters revised their recession probabilities upward. The odds have been updated across several respected institutions and platforms: Besides Kalshi and Polymarket, Larry Summers has indicated a 50% likelihood, whereas JPMorgan puts the chance at 40%. According to a CNBC Fed Survey, the odds are 36%, with both Moody’s Analytics and Pimco forecasting a 35% chance. Notably, Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its stance, now estimating the probability at 35%, up from a previous 20%. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Buying Hits Record Levels, Yet Prices Are Down—Here’s Why JPMorgan warns that these tariffs could result in “a $660 billion annual tax increase on Americans,” potentially adding 2% to domestic inflation. The risk of a knock-on effect is underscored by shifting consumer confidence data and the looming prospect of retaliatory trade measures from partners such as Canada and the EU. Goldman Sachs, in its March 30 research note, offered a sobering outlook for 2025. According to the team: “We now see a 12-month recession probability of 35%. The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.” What This Means For Bitcoin Renowned crypto trader Bob Loukas captured market sentiment on X, writing: “I’m starting to think we’re heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one, but it’s looking likely. […] We should take it seriously. That said, I think it’s time to move away from the ‘buy the dip’ habit we’ve leaned on during the bull market. […] It might not end up being a disaster, but focusing too much on potential gains could mean overlooking real risks. […] Bonds seem like a good bet, capital has to flow somewhere.” With respect to Bitcoin, Loukas underlines the difficult situation for investor with respect to Trump’s pro-BTC policy: Bitcoin’s tricky, instinct says it struggles, but I can see it holding up as a kind of digital gold, especially since the administration seems to want it to succeed, outside of trade policy stuff. Maybe there is some bias in that last statement.” Aksel Kibar (@TechCharts), a Chartered Market Technician and ex-fund manager, briefly affirmed Loukas’s stance by commenting, “Agreed.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Watch This Key Price Meanwhile, LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) spotlighted new guidance from UBS global wealth management, which now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75–100 bps through the remainder of 2025. The analyst writes via X: “This is kind of the key for Bitcoin. If the Fed treats tariff induced inflation as ‘transitory’ [… ] and focuses on supporting growth, then real rates are coming way lower […] and Bitcoin will fly. Financial conditions are currently easing with lower dollar and yields (although keep an eye on credit spreads). […] Bitcoin front runs liquidity […] Ultimately, this all ends with the Fed being forced to be the liquidity providers of last resort […] Bitcoin will end this year significantly higher. Just the path is going to be a very volatile and choppy one.” Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) cautioned about the interplay between monetary easing and recession risk: “Fed cuts without recession are usually bullish. Fed cuts with recession are usually bearish. This was a major talking point in 2024.” Powell’s Speech: A Pivotal Moment In light of President Trump’s unexpected tariffs, Friday’s scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have taken on renewed urgency. Powell had previously indicated that monetary policy remains restrictive, given inflation’s persistence above the Fed’s 2% target. Yet tariffs introduce a potential double bind: higher costs for consumers that could drive inflation further, alongside a drag on economic growth that complicates the labor market outlook. Andy Brenner of NatAlliance Securities described the speech as possibly “One of the most important Powell speeches in three years.” The Fed Chair is due to speak at 11:25 am ET. At press time, BTC traded at $83,197. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Pejman has warned that the Bitcoin price could witness a further crash in the short term. He revealed the level the flagship crypto needs to hold to avoid these “heavy declines.” Bitcoin Price Could Witness Further Crash If It Falls Below This Level In a TradingView post, Pejman stated that the Bitcoin price could record heavy declines if it falls below $83,500. This warning came following a bullish analysis in which he remarked that BTC seems to be completing the bullish flag pattern. The analyst added that he expects the flagship crypto to rally to the upside as it looks to fill the CME gap at the $86,000 range.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Struggles: Crypto Analyst Bucks Back Against Bearish Sentiment, Top Is Not In This eventually happened as the Bitcoin price rallied to as high as $88,000 amid the massive volatility that occurred following Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. However, Pejman suggested that the rally to $88,000 is likely the local top for BTC, stating that there is a possibility that Bitcoin will fall again following this price surge.  Moreover, the Bitcoin price has since corrected following the rally to $88,000. This price crash occurred as Trump unveiled the customized tariff rates for countries such as China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan. This move from the US president is expected to trigger a trade war, with these countries retaliating with counter-tariffs, which is bearish for BTC and the broader crypto market.  BTC Could Still Drop To As Low As $78,000 Based on crypto analyst Kevin Capital’s analysis, the Bitcoin price could soon drop to as low as $78,000. The analyst noted that there is a little bit of long liquidity at the $78,000 to $80,000 level, but there is also a lot of liquidity in the $87,000 to $90,000 range.  Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Makes Case For Bitcoin Price At $260,000, But This Invalidation Level Threatens The Rally He further remarked that market makers could look to transact in that $87,000 to $90,000 range just before Trump’s tariff announcement, which happened as predicted. With the Bitcoin price sucking up the liquidty at the $87,000 to $90,000 range, it looks likely to drop to the $78,000 to $80,000 range to also suck up the liquidity at that range.  Despite the Bitcoin price’s downtrend over the past two months, crypto analyst Rekt Capital is still bullish on the flagship crypto’s trajectory. He noted that BTC experienced a 32% downtrend from mid-March 2024 to early September 2024, a pullback that lasted almost six months before its price broke to new all-time highs (ATHs). As such, the analyst suggested this downtrend is nothing to worry about as BTC could still rally to new highs in a flash.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,000, down over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price plunged by 7.2%—from $88,526 to $82,150—within the span of four hours following the reciprocal tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The precipitous drop aligns with a broader market rout set off by what has been described as one of the largest tariff packages in modern US history. Bitcoin Crashes After Trump’s Tariff Bombshell On Wednesday afternoon, markets were jolted by a sweeping set of “reciprocal tariffs” that President Trump claimed would be levied on 185 countries “all at once.” The news sent ripples across global finance, with the S&P 500 futures market reportedly shedding $2 trillion of market capitalization in under 15 minutes. According to The Kobeissi Letter (via X): “Reciprocal tariffs are officially HERE: President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history. S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes. ” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Fate Hinges on This Critical ‘Dead Cross’ Signal — What’s Next for BTC? The initial press coverage noted a 10% baseline tariff. However, as Trump spoke, the scheme’s complexity and scope became more apparent. He clarified that tariffs would be “reciprocal” but set to half of whatever rate another country currently imposes on US goods—a figure well beyond the 10% baseline in many cases. China, for instance, reportedly applies 67% tariffs on certain imports from the United States, suggesting a 34% tariff reciprocally aimed at Chinese imports. Meanwhile, the European Union could face a 20% tariff. “This is VASTLY different than a 10% tariff across the board,” The Kobeissi Letter pointed out, adding that these significantly higher rates created massive volatility. At one point in Trump’s announcement, the S&P 500 futures reversed from being up 2% to dropping 4%—an abrupt 6-percentage-point swing in under 20 minutes. By the time the “Make America Wealthy Again Event” concluded, the markets had sustained those losses, with Nasdaq 100 futures indicating a potential 500-point decline from prior levels. Bitcoin, which was up 8.9% since Monday morning, instantly experienced the same turmoil, shedding 7.2% of its value. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, remarked via X: “I hope Bitcoiners learn that Trump’s tariffs are a net negative for Bitcoin and the US economy.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Watch This Key Price He further elaborated: “Trump has introduced too much uncertainty to the world economy with his tariffs. There’s a high enough chance of recession if the tariffs last long enough. This of course has hit Bitcoin and crypto prices in spite of a positive regulatory environment and [the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve].” Economic Projections While the precise long-term effects remain unclear, several prominent institutions have already issued forecasts. JPMorgan analysts warn: “On a static basis, today’s announcement would raise just under $400 billion in revenue, or about 1.3% of GDP, which would be the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968. We estimate that today’s announced measures could boost PCE prices by 1–1.5% this year… This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession. And this is before accounting for the additional hits to gross exports and to investment spending.” Simultaneously, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the average US tariff rate—once the new set of duties is enforced—could exceed levels not seen since World War II. They cautioned that the White House’s targeted tariff revenue of $600 billion per year may be optimistic, suggesting only half that amount might materialize based on current data. Additional exemptions—such as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber—amplified the confusion, indicating that the tariffs will vary widely by sector and country of origin. UBS, as quoted by The Kobeissi Letter, also raised the alarm about inflation: “BREAKING: UBS says a permanent implementation of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would result in inflation rising to 5%. This would be a result of prices rising to ‘adjust to the higher costs of imports.’ We are on the verge of 5% inflation and negative GDP growth.” Although President Trump hinted at forthcoming “largest tax cuts in American history,” markets did not bounce back on that news. He specified that Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits would be spared from cuts, but investors and analysts appeared more focused on the immediate shock from the tariff package. At press time, BTC recovered to $83,207. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price is currently down more than -22% from its all-time, displaying a series of lower highs on the daily timeframe. While the weekly and monthly time bullish, the calls for the beginning of the Bitcoin bear market are growing louder on X. Two prominent analysts have weighed in on what they believe could be the deciding factor for an extended rally—or a deeper downturn. Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy Crypto analyst Charting Guy, posting under the handle @ChartingGuy, shared a chart that places strong emphasis on the $95,000 price point for Bitcoin, noting: “yes i will flip back to fully bullish […] for that to happen BTC needs to reclaim and hold $95k, which he has stated many times […] it’s the level that was prior support for majority of February, then we rejected from it hard on March 2nd and turned it to resistance […] now, with $76.7k on March 11th being the very likely local low, we pull a fib and $95k just happens to perfectly be the 0.618 fib. you cannot make this up.” According to his analysis, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement—often called the “golden pocket”—looms large as a definitive test of bullish strength. Failing to break above and flip this zone into support, Charting Guy cautions, could lead to an extended bearish phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stays Down, But Whale Wallets Quietly Climb to 4-Month High He further explained that Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), must navigate their respective golden pockets before any real, sustained rally can begin: “if crypto and stocks can’t reclaim the golden pocket and flip it to support, and end up rejecting there instead, then i am bearish on BTC & stocks for a while.” Nevertheless, Charting Guy sees potential for a bull run in April through June: “April – June shall be bullish af imo […] BUT that extension into June is only if May is strong and not a sell in May and go away type of month […] what will determine that? how BTC & SPY both react at their respective golden pockets when they get there on this April relief rally.” If these technical barriers prove insurmountable, Charting Guy says he will exit his positions: “if this purely is just a relief rally and the charts look toppy again when we’re back at these levels late April/early May, then i will be OUT of this market.” Another crypto analyst, @wauwda, has taken a more cautious stance, noting several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500: “Every indicator is getting bearish on the HTF for BTC & SPX: Bearish Stochastic RSI cross, Bearish MACD cross, Bearish divergence RSI, MSTR lower high, Altcoins higher high … Ultimate Bull Trap.” Related Reading: Saylor’s Strategy Adds $1.9 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin To Growing Portfolio While Wauwda anticipates a relief rally—citing the potential for a bounce due to extreme bearish sentiment—he points out parallels with 2021. He lists a series of events he deems indicative of market-wide euphoria, including high-profile celebrity endorsements, big corporate plays, and meme-driven hype: “’We didn’t have euphoria yet’ … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is just a tiny part of what I wrote down.” Despite acknowledging that this cycle’s euphoria might look different from previous ones, Wauwda notes that similar warning signs appeared ahead of the 2021 market top. He also points to ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) as factors to watch, though both have shown volatile, oscillating patterns rather than a clear trend: “The thing I’m struggling with though right now is ETHBTC and BTCD since they both have been up and down only, but maybe that will change with the next leg up.” At press time, BTC traded at $84,206. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price correction over the past week has caused mixed emotions among investors, with some indicators pointing to possible further declines. However, according to one analyst, the current phase could represent the last opportunity to buy before the next major rally.  Popular crypto analyst Captain Faibik, posting on social media platform X, believes that Bitcoin is ready for a bullish breakout as it continues to consolidate within a technical pattern that typically precedes upward movement. Falling Wedge Pattern Hints At Incoming Bullish Breakout Technical analysis of the Bitcoin daily candlestick timeframe chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been consolidating inside a falling wedge for nearly four months. This falling wedge pattern, known in technical analysis for its bullish implications, began in December 2024 and encompassed the period from its all-time high in January until the intense correction in March. Related Reading: The Cyclicality Of Bitcoin: What The Cyclical Crests Say About A BTC Top After peaking at around $88,500 early last week, Bitcoin spent the entire week on a gradual pullback, reaching a low of $81,300. Interestingly, Captain Faibik interprets this decline as a healthy consolidation rather than a bearish reversal, saying that the correction phase is now nearing its end. He noted that the wedge pattern suggests a breakout is due at the beginning of April and that this breakout could drive the Bitcoin price towards a new all-time high at the end of the month.  The analyst predicted that the Bitcoin price would trade around $109,000 at the end of the month. If realized, this forecast would not only surpass the current all-time high of $108,786 but also affirm that the correction that played out throughout March was building toward a continuation of the broader bull cycle.  Bitcoin has declined over the last two months, with February ending with a 17.5% decline and March ending with a 2.19% decline from its month-open. As such, Bitcoin closing the month around $109,000 will also mark the end of the prolonged correction trend. Whale Accumulation Increases But Retail Investors Are Hesitant The difference in behavior towards Bitcoin between experienced investors and newcomers is becoming more visible. Captain Faibik pointed out that large investors have been actively accumulating Bitcoin over the past few weeks, which typically precedes significant upward price action. This is revealed through an interesting metric from on-chain analytics platform Santiment, which shows that over 30,000 BTC were withdrawn from crypto exchanges last week. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Drawdown: Technical Expert Gives Reasons On Why He Is No Longer Bullish On BTC And Crypto At the same time, many retail investors are on the sidelines, expecting further dips before making entries. The fact that whales are not waiting for lower prices is a strong vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,500, up by a modest 1.9% gain in the past 24 hours but still sitting 23.3% below its all-time high set in January. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Technical expert Tony Severino has warned that the Bitcoin and altcoins Fischer Transform indicator has flipped bearish for the first time since 2021. The analyst also revealed the implications of this development and how exactly it could impact these crypto assets.  Bitcoin And Altcoins Fischer Transform Indicator Turns Bearish In an X post, Severino revealed that the total crypto market cap 12-week Fisher Transform has flipped bearish for the first time since December 2021. Before then, the indicator had flipped bearish in January 2018. In 2021 and 2018, the total crypto market cap dropped 66% and 82%, respectively. This provides a bearish outlook for Bitcoin and altcoins, suggesting they could suffer a massive crash soon enough.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fischer Transform Returns To 2022 Bear Levels, Why Max Pain Could Continue For 4 Months In another X post, the technical expert revealed that Bitcoin’s 12-week Fischer Transform has also flipped bearish. Severino noted that this indicator converts prices into a Gaussian normal distribution to smooth out price data and filter out noise. In the process, it helps generate clear signals that help pinpoint major market turning points.  Severino asserted that this indicator on the 12-week timeframe has never missed a top or bottom call, indicating that Bitcoin and altcoins may have indeed topped out. The expert has been warning for a while now that the Bitcoin top might be in and that a massive crash could be on the horizon for the flagship crypto. He recently alluded to the Elliott Wave Theory and market cycles to explain why he is no longer bullish on Bitcoin and altcoins. He also highlighted other indicators, such as the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) and Average Directional Index (ADX), to show that BTC’s bullish momentum is fading. The expert also warned that a sell signal could send BTC into a Supertrend DownTrend, with the flagship crypto dropping to as low as $22,000.  A Different Perspective For BTC Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has provided a different perspective on Bitcoin’s price action. While noting that BTC is in a correctional phase, he affirmed that it will soon be over. Kevin Capital claimed that the question is not whether this phase will end. Instead, it is about how strong Bitcoin’s bounce will be and whether the flagship crypto will make new highs or record a lackluster lower high followed by a bear market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin CME Gap Close About To Happen With Push Toward $83,000 – What Happens Next? The analyst added that Bitcoin’s price action when that time comes will also be trackable using other methods, such as money flow, macro fundamentals, and overall spot volume. The major focus is on the macro fundamentals as market participants look forward to Donald Trump’s much-anticipated reciprocal tariffs, which will be announced tomorrow.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,000, up around 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In a new essay published on March 31, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes lays out a case for a $250,000 Bitcoin price target by year-end, grounded in his belief that the US Federal Reserve has effectively capitulated to fiscal dominance and resumed de facto quantitative easing (QE) for US Treasury markets. The essay, laced with vivid satire and underpinned by rigorous macroeconomic analysis, argues that the Fed’s recent shift in policy signals a structural return to fiat liquidity expansion—an environment historically beneficial to Bitcoin and other hard assets. “Powell proved last week that fiscal dominance is alive and well,” Hayes wrote. “Therefore, I am confident QT, at least regarding treasuries, will stop in the short to medium term… Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced.” QE Returns, Fiat Dies, Bitcoin Flies Hayes centers his argument on the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting, during which Chair Jerome Powell suggested that balance sheet reduction—or Quantitative Tightening (QT)—would slow considerably. Powell stated: “We strongly want the MBS [mortgage-backed securities] to roll off our balance sheet at some point. We would look closely at letting the MBS roll off but keep the overall balance sheet size constant.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly Preview: Tariffs, Whales, And Volatility Ahead This policy configuration, dubbed “QT Twist” by Hayes, implies that the Fed will reinvest MBS runoff proceeds into US Treasuries, thereby supporting bond prices while holding the nominal balance sheet steady. Hayes characterizes this as “treasury QE,” even if not labeled as such. “If the Fed balance sheet is kept constant, then they can buy: Max $35 billion per month of treasuries or annualized $420 billion,” Hayes calculated. In addition, the tapering of Treasury QT from $25 billion to $5 billion per month represents an annualized $240 billion positive shift in dollar liquidity. To frame the Fed’s political constraints, Hayes invoked a satirical dialogue in which Powell is subjected to humiliation by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—a fictionalized dramatization that underscores the subordination of monetary policy to fiscal necessity. In this theatrical allegory, Powell is told by Bessent: “Next week at the FOMC, you are going to start tapering QT for my treasury bonds and announce that QE for treasury bonds will start in the near future. Do you understand?” Hayes reinforces his point by drawing historical parallels to Arthur Burns, Fed Chair during the inflationary 1970s, who admitted in his 1979 speech “The Anguish of Central Banking” that political pressure rendered the Fed powerless to stop inflation. Burns wrote: “The Federal Reserve was itself caught up in the philosophic and political currents that were transforming American life and culture… Monetary policy came to be governed by the principle of under-nourishing the inflationary process while still accommodating a good part of the pressures in the marketplace.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Short-Term Holders Capitulate—What This Mean for BTC Hayes sees the same dynamic today, intensified by the government’s ballooning debt burden and the need to finance deficits at low yields. Trump’s Policy Agenda Hayes ties the Fed’s pivot to the political realities of a second Trump administration, particularly its industrial policy goals. Trump has pledged to reduce the US fiscal deficit from 7% to 3% of GDP by 2028, while reshoring manufacturing, sustaining military spending, and avoiding cuts to entitlements. However, Hayes argues that these objectives are mathematically incompatible without central bank support, given the scale of debt issuance required. “The maths don’t add up unless Bessent can find a buyer of treasuries at an uneconomically high price or low yield. Only US commercial banks and the Fed have the firepower to buy the debt at a level the government can afford.” To unlock that capacity, Hayes anticipates the Fed will not only halt QT but also exempt banks from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR)—a key regulatory constraint limiting bank purchases of U.S. Treasuries. Bessent himself hinted at such a move on the All-In Podcast, stating: “If we take [SLR] away… we might actually pull treasury bill yields down by 30 to 70 basis points. Every basis point is a billion dollars a year.” Hayes maintains that Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to benefit from this shift in monetary regime. Unlike equities, which are entangled in the legal and political architecture of the state, Bitcoin is a bearer instrument native to the digital realm, with no counterparty risk. “Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” he wrote. “If my analysis… is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.” Referencing gold’s reaction to QE1 in 2008–2009, Hayes highlights how liquidity injections can lead to delayed but explosive repricing of anti-fiat assets. In his view, Bitcoin is now playing the same role gold once did—only faster and with more direct global exposure. Hayes also offered insight into Maelstrom’s capital deployment approach. “We use no leverage, and we buy in small clips relative to the size of our total portfolio,” he said. “We have been buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,500. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Amid the Bitcoin price struggles, crypto analyst BitQuant has pushed back against the idea that the top is in and instead provided a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. He also remarked that he would reveal when the “real top” is in.   Analyst Affirms Top Isn’t In Yet Despite The Bitcoin Price Stuggles In an X post, BitQuant was confident as he assured that the top isn’t in yet despite the Bitcoin price struggles. He noted that during the last cycle, market participants argued that $60,000 didn’t look like a top, even though it had a perfect textbook structure of one. Now, there is a panic although this top structure has yet to form in this market cycle.  Related Reading: This Bear Market Indicator Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed For Crash To $40,000, Here’s When The analyst stated that he understands the bearish sentiment but that this is likely because some market participants haven’t experienced the bull phase yet. He affirmed that when the real top is in for the Bitcoin price, and there is a 25% pullback, he will post his accompanying chart again. The analyst added that market participants would know for sure, without any guidance, whether the top is in or not. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital also suggested that the top isn’t in yet for the Bitcoin price. However, he admitted that the crypto is in a major correctional phase in the market. The analyst remarked that these corrections take time and asked market participants to stay patient while monitoring the macro data and monetary policy updates.  Kevin Capital mentioned that much can be done in the meantime and claimed that this is what crypto is like. He added that most of the Bitcoin price gains are accomplished in a two-week period every year. Other times, the flagship crypto simply trades sideways or witnesses significant declines.  BTC Still Risks Dropping To As Low As $70,000 In a recent analysis, Kevin Capital predicted that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as $70,000. He stated that if BTC loses the golden pocket at $81,000 and follows through with that measured target, then the $70,000 to $73,000 range, which he has outlined on the higher time frames, would be the “Measured Move” target.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Set For Reversal To $130,000 After Forming Major Cup And Handle Support The analyst also remarked that there are lots of factors this week that will influence price action. One is Donald Trump’s tariff implementation on April 2nd, which he suggested could be a buy-the-news event in the sense that BTC has also priced into the effects of the proposed tariff and could surge once the event occurs.  Kevin Capital also highlighted other macro factors, such as the labor market data at the end of the week. Meanwhile, the US Treasury run-off will decrease from $25 billion to $5 billion starting April 1st. The analyst admitted that it remains uncertain whether these events have an immediate sentiment effect or even affect the sentiment at all.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $82,000, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin traders are preparing for a jam-packed and potentially turbulent week. From looming tariffs to whale-sized BTC bid activity, here are five major factors that market participants need to keep on their radar. #1 US Tariffs Poised To Escalate On April 2 The global stage is bracing for what US President Donald Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2. According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the administration’s plan for “reciprocal tariffs” promises to be a watershed moment in ongoing international trade disputes. “President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. This is a day that he has named ‘Liberation Day’ where widespread new tariffs are coming. We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date,” The Kobeissi Letter writes via X. These tariffs will layer on top of a slew of existing US duties that span steel, aluminum, Canadian goods, Mexican goods, and many Chinese imports. The Kobeissi Letter points out that 25% levies on auto imports and on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil will also take effect this week. With retaliatory measures from Canada, China, the EU, and Mexico in the pipeline, they warn of a “massive trade war,” intensifying uncertainty for global markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Bottomed, Now The Road To $1 Million Begins, Says Arthur Hayes Beyond trade specifics, the coming days could see inflation pressure intensify due to higher consumer costs on imported goods. Citing an uptick in the Economy Policy Uncertainty Index, The Kobeissi Letter highlights: “Policy uncertainty is currently above just about any crisis in modern US history. We are seeing ~80% HIGHER uncertainty levels than 2008. As a result, market swings are widening, and we expect an extremely volatile week.” Add in President Trump’s latest threats regarding Iran—where “secondary tariffs” and potential levies on Russian oil are on the table—and there are multiple international flashpoints that may feed into market volatility. #2 Bitcoin Whale Activity In the Bitcoin arena, large-scale liquidity maneuvers remain a focal point. Keith Alan (@KAProductions), co-founder of Material Indicators, drew attention to a potential whale strategy in action—attributed to a figure he dubs “Spoofy the Whale.” “My first clue that something was up came with a sequence of micro movements that seemed to be a little different than his typical price adjustment of his massive blocks of ask liquidity. At a closer look I noticed a ladder of BTC bid liquidity perfectly aligned and moving with the ask liquidity. While I have no real way of confirming that it is the same entity using ask liquidity to herd price into their own bids, it certainly appears that Spoofy has been buying this dip and has bids laddered down to $78k,” Alan wrote on Sunday. He also noted the convergence of several news events—Sunday’s weekly close, Monday’s monthly close, and the expected tariff implementation midweek—that may catalyze further price swings. While acknowledging BTC could still go lower, he underlined the whale’s apparent commitment to accumulating at current levels: “In the grand scheme of things, none of this means BTC price can’t go lower, but it does mean that the whale that has been suppressing BTC price for the last 3 weeks is using a DCA strategy to buy this dip…and so am I.” #3 Bitcoin Bearish Flag Breakdown Technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) is warning traders to keep a close eye on pivotal support levels following a bearish flag breakdown: “We were tracking this bearish flag pattern all last week and as we can see we had a breakdown of that weakness. If BTC does lose the golden pocket here at $81K and follows through with that measured move target, then the $70K–$73K range … would be the ‘Measured Move’ target.” Still, Kevin posits that, given widespread negative sentiment around April 2 (“Armageddon Day” in some corners of the media), there is a possibility of a contrarian twist: “Will the Tariff implementation on April 2nd be a rare ‘sell the rumor buy the news event’? … Everyone thinks the world is suddenly going to end.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders In Extreme Panic And Fear — What This Means He also added: “A little bit of long liquidity at the $78K-$80K level but a lot of juice in the $87K-$89K (Dark Yellow) range for market makers to transact in right before the CNBC proclaimed “Armageddon Day” on April 2nd. Makes me wonder.” #4 Seasoned Players Accumulate From an on-chain perspective, Axel Adler Jr, an analyst at CryptoQuant, observes that experienced market participants are moving into a new accumulation phase. Drawing from the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, Adler identifies a series of four distinct accumulation periods since early 2023, marking the current cycle as ripe for potential long-term upside: “The absence of significant selling in the current phase demonstrates the confidence of these experienced players that the current BTC price level is not favorable for profit-taking.” Adler underlines that historical data shows low VDD periods often precede price increases, suggesting a bullish medium-term outlook—provided macro factors, including global economic policy shifts, do not derail market sentiment. #5 CME Gap Lastly, traders need to watch the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) gap formation, which has been a notable feature in Bitcoin’s price action. Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) highlighted the recent filling of a gap between $82,000 and $85,000: “BTC has filled the general CME Gap area from $82k–$85k. Moreover, Bitcoin will probably develop a brand new CME Gap over this weekend … Which could set BTC up for a move into at least $84k next week.” CME gaps often act as magnets for price action, and Rekt Capital’s analysis suggests a possible retracement to fill newly formed gaps or a continuation move that takes BTC higher, depending on how broader market forces unfold this week. At press time, BTC traded at $82,010. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The price action of Bitcoin has been largely underwhelming on almost every weekend so far in 2025. After an impressive start to the week, the flagship cryptocurrency kicked off the weekend with a return to around the $84,000 level. The weekend woes of BTC’s price seem to only be deepening, as the market leader slipped under the $83,000 mark on Saturday, March 29. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin price retracement might be nearing its end. Here’s Why BTC Price Could Rebound To A New High In a March 29 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the price of Bitcoin could be primed for a rebound following its recent struggles. This projection is based on changes in the coin’s sell-side risk ratio, a metric that estimates the ratio between the sum of all realized profits and losses and the total realized market capitalization. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Hits 300-Week MA For The Second Time Ever, Here’s What Happened In 2022 This metric usually assumes that all losses and profits realized in the market are a potential source of sell-side pressure. The realized losses and profits divided by the realized capitalization help quantify the aggregate sell-side risk in the market. Typically, when the sell-side risk ratio has a high value, it implies a high level of realization and oversupply of coins, as seen during late-stage bull markets and bear market capitulation events. Meanwhile, low values for the metric are associated with periods of low realization and volatility, as seen in market consolidation phases and a sideways market. According to Martinez, the Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio has dropped to around 0.086% this weekend. As observed in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded from its local bottom in the past two years whenever the sell-side risk ratio slips below 0.1%. In January 2024, the premier cryptocurrency surged to a then-all-time high price of $73,737 after the sell-side risk ratio fell beneath the 0.1% threshold. Similarly, the Bitcoin price ran up to the current all-time high after the sell-side risk indicator slumped to under the 0.1% level in September 2024. If history is anything to go by, the price of Bitcoin could be gearing up for a rebound to a new high from its current lows, as the sell-side risk ratio lies at 0.086%. However, it is worth noting that the market leader’s rebound was sustained by positive catalysts, like the US-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January and the election victory of Donald Trump as US President, in November. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $83,100, reflecting an almost 2% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price Chart Flashes Inverse Head And Shoulders Pattern That Could Trigger Rally To $3.9  Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently discussed the Bitcoin price action and provided insights into the flagship crypto’s future trajectory. Specifically, he alluded to BTC’s RSI, which is showing a similar pattern to last year, just before the rally to new highs.  Bitcoin’s RSI Targeting Daily Retest That Triggered 2024 Price Rally In an X post, Rekt Capital revealed that Bitcoin’s RSI is targeting a daily retest that triggered the 2024 price rally. He mentioned that last week, the daily RSI successfully performed a post-breakout retest of the RSI downtrend, which dates back to November 2024, to confirm the breakout. He added that the RSI is now going for another retest of that same downtrend.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin RSI Dominance Needs To Crash To This Level For The Bull Run To Resume The Bitcoin price rallied to $100,000 during this November 2024 period following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. Rekt Capital’s accompanying chart showed that the RSI is retesting the 40 zone, with a break below this level likely to spark another downtrend for the flagship crypto. On the other hand, holding above this RSI level could spark another uptrend for BTC, sending its price to new highs.  However, the Bitcoin price looks more likely to face another major correction at the moment, having dropped from its weekly high of around $88,500 to below $84,000 on Friday. Macro factors like Donald Trump’s tariffs and the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening policies are weakening the flagship crypto’s bullish momentum.  Trading firm QCP Capital opined that any short-term upside for the Bitcoin price remains capped as markets wait for clarity from Trump’s next move in the escalating trade war. The PCE inflation data, which was released on Friday, also sparked a bearish outlook for BTC as the core index rose beyond expectations.  BTC Could Form Local Bottom At Current Price Level Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto suggested that the Bitcoin price could form a local bottom at its current price level. He noted that BTC is still holding above a strong confluence of supports, including the monthly Tenkan and midline of the monthly Fair Value Gap. The analyst added that the last two times BTC has held these supports, it has marked a local bottom.  Related Reading: Popular Analyst PlanB Expects Bitcoin Price To Double In 2025 As Bear Market Is Not Here In an earlier post, Titan of Crypto had raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price rallying to $91,000 soon. He stated that a bullish pennant had formed on the 4-hour chart. According to him, if this pattern breaks to the upside, the BTC target is around $91,400. Meanwhile, legendary trader Peter Brandt looks bearish as he recently predicted that BTC could drop to as low as $65,635.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,900, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In an interview, Arthur Hayes—co-founder of the pioneering crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX—laid out his outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a momentous rally fueled by what he describes as “stealth printing” by global central banks. While Hayes has long stressed the crucial role of liquidity in driving the Bitcoin price, his latest remarks go even further, suggesting a new phase of expansion is imminent. Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is History Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s original four-year “halving cycle” framework has been overshadowed by the asset’s ascent into mainstream financial consciousness. According to him, early on, Bitcoin’s market dynamics were more closely tied to mining profitability cycles. However, those days appear largely gone: “Now that Bitcoin and crypto are a bona fide asset class…everyone’s responding to it,” Hayes said. “It has transitioned from this technological digital bearer asset into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Make Big Moves As Bullish Momentum Resurfaces Rather than focus on halving events, Hayes urges investors to track how many dollars, euros, yen, and yuan are actively being created—or destroyed—by the world’s major central banks. In his view, the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank drive the most significant flows: “All I care about is fiat liquidity. As long as we believe [Bitcoin] works, then it just comes down to how many fiat things are in the denominator, and then you just get to the price.” According to Hayes, markets are underestimating the US Federal Reserve’s willingness to revert to looser monetary policy far sooner than publicly stated. He calls recent Fed moves “stealth printing,” arguing that Chair Jerome Powell is quietly laying groundwork to keep credit conditions easy—even though official language still references inflation concerns. Hayes pointed to signs in the Fed’s communications that quantitative tightening (QT) will slow or even pause. One such indicator is Powell’s mention of offsetting any reduction in mortgage-backed securities with fresh purchases of US Treasuries: “They said they might taper QT to be flat […] That’s very positive for dollar liquidity.” He also noted Powell’s statements that any inflation arising from tariffs would be considered “transitory”—in effect granting the Fed cover to maintain accommodative policies: “Tariffs don’t matter anymore to Powell, and they shouldn’t matter anymore as crypto investors […] because we know that Powell’s going to continue to provide the monetary conditions […] that we need to have our portfolios go up in value in fiat dollar terms.” The Bottom Is (Probably) In In Hayes’s estimation, the worst of Bitcoin’s recent downturn may already be behind us. Although he concedes that the market could still retest lows, he contends that Bitcoin has likely established a key floor: “On balance, we probably hit a bottom of 76,000 […] Does that mean that we’re not going to retest it? No, of course not, but if I had to make a bet, I would bet that we go higher rather than lower.” For Hayes, this is a question of recognizing a turning point in monetary policy. Once the Federal Reserve and other central banks signal they are fully done tightening—“or never truly started,” in his phrasing—he expects Bitcoin to climb. Related Reading: One Of Bitcoin’s Most Reliable Buy Signals Just Flashed Hayes also dismissed the idea that looming crypto regulations in the United States or elsewhere could meaningfully stifle Bitcoin’s trajectory. He believes Bitcoin’s permissionless, decentralized design makes it effectively impervious to traditional regulatory blockades: “Crypto regulation doesn’t matter. Bitcoin doesn’t need anyone’s permission. It’s moving with or without them […] If Bitcoin trades on tradfi regulations, then I don’t want to own it. I want something immune to regulation.” In one of his most attention-grabbing statements, Hayes contemplated whether Bitcoin could achieve “a numerically interesting number”—including the possibility of $1 million—during the next wave of dollar-driven liquidity. Although he did not definitively lock in an exact price ceiling, he mentioned that it might be a psychologically resonant figure: “I put $1 million Bitcoin out there- I hope it will be $1 million dollars but you know maybe it’s just 666,000 or 500,000 or 250,000 what some round number that the human mind sees as significant, for some arbitrary reason.” For Hayes, it comes down to global monetary authorities deciding they have “gone too far” in trying to rein in spending and inflation. Once central banks resume large-scale liquidity injections, he argues, the stage is set for rapid upside in Bitcoin’s price. Arthur Hayes’s perspective centers on the idea that Bitcoin’s fate hinges almost exclusively on global liquidity conditions. He remains convinced that central bankers, especially at the Fed, are closer to providing a renewed wave of monetary stimulus than the market believes—paving the way for a dramatic Bitcoin rally. While volatility remains inherent, Hayes insists that the largest cryptocurrency is poised to move swiftly once the policy backdrop aligns. “If you know what to look for, the clues are everywhere. The bottom is in, liquidity is coming back, and Bitcoin… it’s already turning the corner.” Where that corner leads, according to Hayes, could be as high as $1 million—starting, he suggests, as soon as April. At press time, BTC traded at $85,765. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

The Hash Ribbon indicator—an on-chain metric designed to identify periods of miner capitulation and subsequent recovery—has just issued a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Several well-known figures within the BTC community highlighted the event through posts on X , suggesting that the signal could mark a turning point in the market. The Ultimate Bitcoin Buy Signal? First introduced by on-chain analyst Charles Edwards, the Hash Ribbon relies on two moving averages (commonly the 30-day and 60-day averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate) to determine when mining difficulty and hash power may have capitulated and begun to recover. Traditionally, a “buy” signal is triggered once the 30-day MA crosses decisively above the 60-day MA, indicating that any period of miner-driven distress may be over. According to historical data, major buy signals have frequently appeared after sharp market downturns, sometimes coinciding with cycle bottoms. Although the indicator is not infallible, it has correctly identified several previous lows in Bitcoin’s history—most notably in 2011–2012, during the depths of the 2014–2015 bear market, around the $3k bottom of late 2018–early 2019, and near the $29k region in mid-2021. Related Reading: Now Is The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin, Says Investment Giant Shortly after the latest crossover was triggered, popular commentator Bitcoin Archive posted: “BITCOIN HASH-RIBBON FLASHES BUY SIGNAL – This is one of the most reliable ‘buy’ indicators. Significant price gains have followed 7 out of the last 7 times this indicator was triggered.” Edwards, the creator of the Hash Ribbon, retweeted this post, a move that many interpreted as an endorsement of the analysis. Adding to the discussion, a user noted: “Signal flashed only 20 times in Bitcoin’s history. 17/20 times the most recent local low was never violated on a closing basis. We can sweep the lows, or even wick below, but 85% of the time the low’s in and it’s up only from here.” Meanwhile, Jamie Coutts, chief analyst at Real Vision, stressed the importance of monitoring multiple on-chain metrics, even as the Hash Ribbon flashes bullish: “The widely watched Bitcoin Hash Ribbon signal just fired. While on-chain activity remains sluggish, the metrics with the strongest historical correlation to future price performance are flashing green.” Notably, many on-chain signals haven’t reached the levels of previous cycles even when the Bitcoin price hit almost $110,000 in mid-January. Also traditional technical signals haven’t reached peaks of the past. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Make Big Moves As Bullish Momentum Resurfaces Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Head of Research at NewsBTC, has recently shifted from a bullish to a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Severino, who is also the founder of CoinChartist.io, argues that Bitcoin’s price action and on-chain metrics no longer support the bullish narratives common in past cycles. “The idea that Bitcoin HAS to reach past extremes on indicators is a dangerous way of thinking. Higher highs in price and lower highs on an oscillator is a bearish signal,” Severino stated recently. Severino warns against expecting Bitcoin to replicate its historical pattern of pushing certain momentum indicators (e.g., RSI or MACD) to extreme levels. Instead, he notes that divergences—where price climbs to new highs but technical indicators fail to confirm those highs—can signal market exhaustion. “The tools I use are bearish, period,” he remarked via X. At press time, BTC traded at $87,373. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A prominent crypto pundit has outlined a compelling case for the Bitcoin price outlook, predicting a surge to a target as high as $260,000 this bull cycle. However, a critical invalidation level stands in the way of this bullish scenario, threatening Bitcoin’s projected rally if breached.  On March 26, Gert van Lagen, a well-known crypto analyst on the X social media platform, predicted that the Bitcoin price could hit a bullish target between $200,000 and $300,000. The analyst’s chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price action in the past few years has closely followed a classic market cycle structure, moving through the Accumulation, Redistribution, Re-accumulation, and Distribution phases.  Bitcoin Price Eyes New ATH Above $260,000 According to Lagen, Bitcoin has successfully broken out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase, signaling the potential start of a powerful uptrend. Between late 2022 and early 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced an accumulation phase in which smart money entered the market at low prices when BTC had bottomed out. This was followed by a strong rally that led to a rapid price appreciation to new highs.  Related Reading: Global M2 Vs. Bitcoin Shows Bullishness As Analyst Sets ‘Blast Off’ Date, Here’s When After consolidating for seven months in mid-2023 – early 2024, Bitcoin formed a range, allowing the market to absorb supply before another price breakout. Notably, this trend continued in 2025, with BTC breaking out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase. Based on the trajectory of Lagen’s price chart, Bitcoin’s next leg up is a sharp rise to $240,000, followed by a brief correction before rallying to a price peak between $290,000 and $300,000. After hitting this ATH, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin will decline and undergo a period of choppy trading, experiencing price fluctuations between $220,000 and $260,000.  Interestingly, Bitcoin’s projected rise to an ATH and the following sideways trading are expected to occur during its distribution phase, which is typically characterized by increased sell-offs and market volatility. Once BTC experiences a final surge to $260,000, Lagen predicts a price crash toward $148,000 – $136,000, marking the possible end of the bull rally and the start of the bear market.  Key Invalidation Level Threatening BTC’s Rally Lagen’s optimistic price forecast for Bitcoin is being threatened by a key invalidation level, which could halt the cryptocurrency’s potential surge to $200,000 – $300,000. Although Bitcoin’s bullish structure remains intact, the analyst warns that a weekly close below the 40-week LSMA would invalidate its breakout.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Turns Green For The First Time In 2025 As of writing, the Bitcoin price is consolidating above this key invalidation level at $73,900. As long as it holds above this level, Lagen believes that its bullish trajectory will be sustained. However, a drop below $73,900, which already represents a 15% decline from BTC’s current market price, could postpone the projected surge or cancel it altogether. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Analysts at Bernstein have made a bold prediction regarding MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, the Bitcoin proxy firm co-founded by Michael Saylor. They forecast that it could amass over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033, potentially positioning Strategy to hold 5% of BTC’s total supply.  Strategy Stock (MSTR) Receives ‘Outperform’ Rating  Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s research note reflects an updated bullish case based on Strategy’s strong Q4 financial results and its recent aggressive Bitcoin purchases.  The firm has assigned an “outperform” rating to Strategy’s stock (MSTR) with a price target of $600, suggesting a potential upside of 75% from its current trading level.As of now, Strategy’s stock is priced at $335.26, having experienced a slight decline of 2.09% recently.  Related Reading: Whale Alert: 200 Million Dogecoin Bought—Is A Price Rally On The Horizon? Bernstein’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and soar to $1 million by 2033, reflecting a potential 1,044% increase for the market’s leading cryptocurrency in the next 8 years from current valuations.  This projected growth in Bitcoin’s value is expected to significantly enhance Strategy’s earnings per share, which are anticipated to rise to $207, up from the current $67.50. Holdings Set To Surge To 5.8% Of Supply In a “bull case” scenario, the analysts predict that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings could increase to represent 5.8% of the current circulating supply of approximately 19.8 million BTC, compared to only 2.5% at present, assuming favorable capital market conditions with low interest rates and a sustained bull cycle in cryptocurrency. However, with this growth comes a substantial increase in debt, which Bernstein estimates could reach $100 billion, coupled with equity proceeds of around $84 billion.  In a more conservative base case, the analysts expect Strategy’s holdings to climb to about 4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, while a bear case could see stagnation at approximately 2.6%, potentially leading to forced liquidations of assets. Related Reading: Analyst Unveils Extended XRP Price Target To $44, Reveals When To Take Profits As of March 25, Strategy owned 506,137 Bitcoin, acquired at an average price of $66,608, which equates to a total value of around $33.7 billion. Recently, the company made headlines by purchasing an additional 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million through a combination of selling MSTR stock and issuing perpetual preferred shares (noted as STRK and STRF).  Bernstein views Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury as a core component of its business model, despite facing challenges related to its premium-to-net asset value (NAV) valuation and the aggressive pace of its Bitcoin acquisitions.  On Tuesday, Strategy’s shares closed at $341.81, reflecting a gain of 1.8%, reinforcing its position as a key player in institutional Bitcoin accumulation. Similarly, Bitcoin has also seen a 5% increase in the fourteen day time frame, trading at $87,470 at the time of writing. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Tony Severino has provided an update on the Bitcoin price action. The flagship crypto is now eyeing a bullish reversal, but the analyst warned of how things could still go wrong for BTC and mark the end of the bull run.  Bitcoin Marks 114 Weeks In Active Buy Signal In an X post, Severino revealed that Bitcoin is still in an active buy signal on the SuperTrend weekly. He added that BTC has been in this buy signal for 114 weeks and roughly 800 days. This is undoubtedly a huge positive for the flagship crypto, especially as it looks to reclaim the psychological $90,000 level and rally to new highs.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Headed For $70,000 Or $300,000? What The Charts Are Saying However, the crypto analyst warned that a sell signal would be a strong sign that the bull run has ended. His accompanying chart showed that the sell signal could send BTC into a Supertrend DownTrend, with the flagship crypto dropping to as low as $22,000 in what could mark the peak of the bear market. Crypto analyst PlanB recently affirmed that the bear market is not here yet. Instead, he believes Bitcoin is still in the middle of a sustainable uptrend and predicts that the flagship crypto’s price could double this year. This could lead to a parabolic rally to as high as $180,000 for BTC. Experts like Standard Chartered have also predicted that a rally to $200,000 this year is achievable.  In the meantime, the focus will likely be on how the Bitcoin price reacts to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will go into force on April 2nd. The previous tariffs sparked a wave of sell-offs, causing BTC to drop to as low as $77,000. However, there is also the possibility that Bitcoin has priced in this development and could avoid any further downtrend when the tariffs are implemented on April 2nd.  A New ATH This Year Is Possible  Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has also affirmed that Bitcoin could see a new all-time high (ATH) this year. This came as he remarked that BTC’s uptrend is intact and that the flagship crypto reacted strongly around the weekly 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). His accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could reach a new ATH of $121,000 before the year runs out.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin RSI Dominance Needs To Crash To This Level For The Bull Run To Resume In another X post, he again predicted that Bitcoin could reach this target while revealing a ‘Bump and Run’ pattern which was forming for the flagship crypto. Titan of Crypto asserted that the Uphill run will be epic. A positive for BTC is that whales are actively accumulating. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that over 22,000 coins were withdrawn from exchanges in the past week.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,500, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In its latest investor memo, titled “The Great Derisking of Bitcoin,” Bitwise Asset Management has taken a bold stance on the future of the world’s original cryptocurrency. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan delivered a detailed analysis in a dispatch dated March 25, 2025, stating, “Now is the best time in history to purchase bitcoin (on a risk-adjusted basis).” The memo, which includes reflections on Bitcoin’s early days and an assessment of its biggest milestones, offers insight into why Bitwise believes the leading digital asset’s risk profile has shifted dramatically in recent years. Best Time To Buy Bitcoin In his opening remarks, Hougan recounts his introduction to Bitcoin back in February 2011, when he was working as part of a financial analytics team at ETF.com. During a routine market review meeting, one of Hougan’s young analysts brought up the fact that Bitcoin had just crossed $1—a landmark event that triggered a discussion about its underlying technology and potential use cases. “If I had invested $1,000 in bitcoin after that meeting, it would be worth $88 million today,” Hougan laments in hindsight. This anecdote, however, is not simply a story of missed opportunity. Hougan underscores the risks that were pervasive at the time, emphasizing how the idea of transferring $1,000 to a “random PayPal address” through a nascent crypto exchange was a nerve-racking and largely untested proposition. Moreover, custody, regulatory clarity, and government oversight were virtually nonexistent, effectively turning any cryptocurrency exposure into a high-risk, high-reward gamble. “Throw in custody, regulatory, technological, and governmental risks … and putting $1,000 on bitcoin in 2011 was a massive gamble,” he explains. Related Reading: $31B in Stablecoins Piled Into Binance: Is Bitcoin’s Next Leg Up Loading? Central to Hougan’s thesis is that Bitcoin has, over the years, methodically overcome nearly every existential threat that once loomed. He notes that early attempts to create digital cash—such as the National Security Agency’s 1997 paper titled “How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash”—never fully took off, making it far from guaranteed that Bitcoin itself would succeed. From there, improvements in trading venues and custodial solutions gradually reduced the barriers to entry. When Coinbase launched in late 2011, it marked a pivotal moment by offering a more user-friendly and trustworthy on-ramp for retail and institutional investors alike. Major custodial providers, including Fidelity, would later extend their operational and brand strength to crypto, further mitigating concerns over security and storage. Simultaneously, the once-pervasive fears of regulatory clampdowns began to wane. In 2024, the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US removed another major roadblock. Hougan observes that broader acceptance in traditional financial markets made it easier for institutions to justify adding digital assets to their portfolios without worrying about opaque regulatory regimes or insufficient market surveillance. “When bitcoin first launched, there was no guarantee it would even work. […] The incredible thing about bitcoin is it has slowly but surely knocked down each and every one of these existential risks over time,” writes Hougan, underscoring his view that Bitcoin’s evolutionary path has been one of measured resilience. Bitcoin Last Threat Is Removed One key question, however, continued to shadow Bitcoin’s rise: What if a major government decides to ban or severely restrict the cryptocurrency? Hougan points to a historical parallel: the US government’s gold confiscation order in 1933, enacted under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The measure aimed to consolidate gold holdings to strengthen government reserves, fueling a common fear among Bitcoin investors that a similar ban could stifle the cryptocurrency’s growth or outright render it illegal. “The US famously confiscated private gold holdings in 1933 to boost public coffers. Why would it allow bitcoin to grow large enough to threaten the US dollar?” Hougan acknowledges. This worst-case scenario, he adds, was often tempered by reminding people that if Bitcoin did become significant enough to rival the dollar, “you’ll probably have done pretty well on your investment.” Still, uncertainty remained—until what Hougan views as a decisive event occurred earlier this month. President Trump’s executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signed in early March, seems to have addressed that lingering concern, Hougan says. By making a direct investment in Bitcoin, the US government effectively nullified the prospect of an outright ban, transitioning instead to a policy of strategic alignment. “And just like that, the last existential risk facing bitcoin disappeared before my eyes,” Hougan remarks. Related Reading: Bitcoin To ‘Brutally Bleed Lower’ Or Break New ATH In Q2, Expert Warns Critics have questioned why the US would endorse what could be construed as a competitor to the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Quoting Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital, Hougan points to the immediate query: “(I)f crypto is a viable long-term competitor to the US dollar, why on earth would we be promoting this direct competitor to our being the world’s reserve currency?” In Hougan’s assessment, the US government is positioning Bitcoin as a hedge rather than relinquishing monetary dominance. If the dollar’s primacy does come under threat, Bitcoin presents a more controllable or, at least, more transparent alternative than a foreign currency such as the Chinese yuan. “The best-case scenario for the US is that the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. But if we get to the point where that’s at risk, we’re better off moving to bitcoin than something like the Chinese yuan,” he adds. Shifting Institutional Allocations On the institutional front, Bitwise has already observed a noticeable shift in how investors allocate to crypto. As recently as two years ago, holding 1% in Bitcoin or other digital assets was considered relatively aggressive for a diversified portfolio. This allocation was meant to capture speculative gains while limiting exposure to what still felt like a nascent, unpredictable market. Today, however, with a new level of government-endorsed legitimacy and more regulated pathways to invest, the firm is seeing more clients adopt allocations nearing 3%. Hougan notes that this trend reflects a profound change in perception: Bitcoin is no longer just a gamble; it is a credible alternative asset. “As more of the world wakes up to the massive derisking we’ve seen in bitcoin, I think you’ll see this number rise to 5% and beyond,” he forecasts. At press time, BTC traded at $87,865. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has entered a period of relative calm, with its price oscillating between $81,000 and $89,000 over the past several sessions. This newfound stability has reassured many traders, as the odds of a sharp decline below $80,000 have diminished significantly. Selling pressure is starting to ease, buyers are gradually stepping in, and the market appears to be in an accumulation phase, which is often a precursor to another rally.  Even with selling pressure easing, there’s still a risk of breakdown below $80,000 at any moment. However, dormer BitMEX CEO and renowned crypto investor Arthur Hayes recently shared a bold projection that Bitcoin will reach $110,000 before retesting the $76,500 price level. Arthur Hayes Predicts $110,000 Will Come Before Any Pullback to $76,500 As it stands, Bitcoin is closer to $75,000 than it is to $110,000, but popular crypto commentator Arthur Hayes believes the leading cryptocurrency will reach the latter before the former.  A climb to $110,000 will translate to a new all-time high for Bitcoin, as its current peak is $108,786, set in January.  Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Arthur Hayes Says Be Patient After Bitcoin’s 36% Crash, Reveals Possible Bottom At present, Bitcoin is trading about 20.3% below that high, and concerns about a deeper correction are valid. The possibility of a pullback to $76,500 is still a genuine concern, especially since that price sits just under this month’s local low, and it can be quickly retested before another bounce upwards. Hayes’ comments on social media platform X offered both a price target and a macroeconomic rationale. Hayes stated, “I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k,” clarifying that the momentum of the market and shifts in monetary policies are more likely to push the Bitcoin price up rather than another correction towards $76,500. He went further to suggest that once Bitcoin crosses $110,000, it may not look back until it starts approaching $250,000. This price target resonates with outlooks from other crypto analysts. Incoming Shifts In Monetary Policies Central to Hayes’ reasoning is the Federal Reserve’s changing stance on liquidity. He pointed out that the Fed is transitioning from quantitative tightening (QT) to a new phase of quantitative easing (QE), particularly in the Treasury markets. Although the Fed has been engaged in quantitative tightening (QT) since June 2022, there are now discussions about pausing or slowing down the balance sheet runoff. According to Reuters, some analysts predict a shift towards a more QE-like approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: LTF Head And Shoulders Pattern Predicts Crash – Here’s The Target This shift could potentially inject more liquidity into the financial system, pushing assets like Bitcoin to higher price levels. Hayes also dismissed concerns about inflation, stating that the Fed Chairman appears to view it as “transitory inflation.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $86,600, having traded at an intraday high of $88,713 in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Recession risks and macro uncertainty are currently once again at the center of market discourse, with Bitcoin being down -20% from its peak. Yet macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) contends that the broader economic backdrop is not as dire as some headlines suggest, even though certain datasets have pointed to weaker growth in early 2025. “Doesn’t look very recessionary to me?” Tomas wrote in a recent post on X, echoing the skepticism he has maintained for months. He pointed to specific indicators that began sliding in February but have started to stabilize. According to his analysis, US growth nowcasts—which aggregate various real-time measures of economic growth—“fell throughout February but have been leveling off for three weeks.” He likewise referenced the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which tracks how actual economic data compares to consensus forecasts. Since January, the CESI had been in a downturn, implying that data releases were coming in below expectations, but it has also steadied in recent weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin To ‘Brutally Bleed Lower’ Or Break New ATH In Q2, Expert Warns “Falling CESI = data coming in below expectations, rising CESI = data coming in above expectations,” Tomas explained, highlighting the significance of the index for market sentiment. The upshot is that, while markets grew increasingly defensive during the early-year weakness, these indicators are no longer deteriorating at the pace observed at the start of 2025. Why Bitcoin Mirrors Summer 2024 Tomas then turned his attention to parallels between the current environment and two notable past episodes: the turbulence of Summer 2024 and the rout of late 2018. He underscored that, in each case, global markets encountered a sharp drawdown triggered by what he labeled “growth/recession scares,” combined with other exogenous pressures. “For me, the two recent instances that are the most similar to today in terms of both price action and macro backdrop are Summer 2024 and late 2018,” he wrote. During Summer 2024, concerns over growth plus a widespread yen carry trade unwind contributed to a 10% equity-market drawdown. In late 2018, an escalating trade battle during the first Trump-era tariff moves similarly prompted an initial correction in equities of about 10%, eventually deepening into a further 15% pullback. Now, with equity markets having also suffered approximately a 10% peak-to-trough decline recently, Tomas sees distinct echoes of those historical moments. He noted that such parallels extend to Bitcoin, which fell around 30% in Summer 2024 and 54% in late 2018—close to the 30% slide it has endured this time around. The question, he posed, is which path lies ahead: will the market follow the relatively contained Summer 2024 correction, or will it spiral into a more painful chain of losses similar to late 2018’s extended selloff? Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom In Sight As Trump Expected To Soften Stance On Reciprocal Tariffs: Report “So which way?” Tomas asked, underscoring the uncertain juncture facing both crypto assets and equities. His stance leans toward expecting a scenario more akin to Summer 2024 than to the tumult of 2018. In his words, “I’m still in the camp that tariffs won’t be as bad as many expect — I’ve been here for months,” a viewpoint he believes also helps explain the somewhat surprising resilience in risk assets lately. He suggested that “some of the noises over the past couple of days are potentially pointing towards this outcome, which is probably why risk assets have jumped today,” although he stopped short of claiming any definitive resolution. Several factors, in Tomas’s view, bolster the case that today’s landscape aligns more closely with Summer 2024 than with late 2018. One is the recent easing of financial conditions, which had tightened earlier in the year but have since moderated. Another is the US dollar’s notable weakening in recent weeks, a stark contrast to its ascent during 2018 that intensified selling pressure on global assets. Tomas added that most leading indicators still support a continued business cycle expansion, a stance he believes is less reflective of the contractionary signals that rattled investors nearly seven years ago. Another contributing element, he noted, is the generally favorable seasonal pattern for US equity indices, which often rebound after a weak February and find firmer footing by mid-March. Finally, tight credit spreads—still below their highs seen in August 2024—point to stable credit markets that do not appear to be pricing in severe economic distress. Beyond the question of macro signals, Tomas openly admitted fatigue with the swirl of discussions around economic policy catalysts. “I’m honestly really bored with all the tariff talk,” he wrote, while reminding followers that April 2 remains pivotal for clarity. “April 2nd ‘tariff liberation day’ will probably play a big role in deciding,” he concluded. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $86,557. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com