THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

The price of Bitcoin put in another interesting performance over the past week, as the global uncertainty continued in the broader financial markets. However, the $74,000 resistance level proved to be unyielding yet again, as the premier cryptocurrency made a fresh play for it as the weekend approached. The investor sentiment in the Bitcoin market seems to be worsening with time, while the bullish momentum appears to be waning after the latest rejection. In fact, recent on-chain data shows that the sentiment is at a low not seen in nearly four years. BTC Fear & Greed Index Falls To 10% For First Time Since 2022 In a March 13 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr revealed that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has continued its descent over the past few weeks. The Fear and Greed Index is an on-chain indicator that measures sentiment in the crypto market and reflects some aspect of investor behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs Back To $73,000 As Short Squeeze Wipes Out $246M In Futures Bets Typically, the index ranges from 0 to 100 (often in percentage), with higher values often signaling extreme greed and overheating market conditions. Meanwhile, a lower value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index suggests extreme fear and skepticism among investors. According to CryptoQuant’s data shared by Adler Jr, the 30-day average Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 10%, a level of pessimism seen during the market-wide crash brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapse. As observed in the chart below, the metric has been on a downturn since reaching a peak above the 75th percentile in late 2025. Adler Jr. wrote on X: Sentiment is now deeply compressed. For market structure to stabilize, Bitcoin likely needs to reclaim higher price levels. While an upturn in price performance might be critical in improving the market sentiment, the current level of the Fear and Greed Index might provide insight into Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. From a historical perspective, the premier cryptocurrency has often shown the tendency to bounce back when the market sentiment is at its lowest. During the COVID-19 crash, the Bitcoin price rebounded from around $5,000 to a new all-time high after the Fear and Greed Index fell to around 10%. In 2022, though, the price of BTC did not reach a bottom until after the collapse of the FTX exchange (a few months after the index reached the 10% level). In essence, the Fear and Greed Index being this low could imply that the market leader has either reached or is near its bottom. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $71,262, reflecting an over 1% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners’ AI Shift May Create New Overhang, Lekker Capital CIO Warns Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView

Strategy’s stock is trading below the value of its own Bitcoin holdings — an unusual position for a company that has built its entire identity around the cryptocurrency’s rise. Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs Back To $73,000 As Short Squeeze Wipes Out $246M In Futures Bets A Streak That Keeps Going The Virginia-based firm added 17,994 BTC to its reserves last week, paying roughly $1.28 billion at an average of $70,946 per coin. It was the company’s 102nd Bitcoin purchase and the 11th straight week it has bought more. Strategy’s total Bitcoin stash is now valued at approximately $52.65 billion, yet its market capitalization sits closer to $47 billion. The gap tells a story investors are watching closely. Chairman Michael Saylor took to X on Thursday with a message that many read as a direct response to growing impatience. Don’t expect Bitcoin to surge immediately after a big corporate purchase, he said — the gains usually show up later. The post spread fast, pulling in a wave of reactions — some supportive, some skeptical, and a few that referenced older memes tied to Saylor’s years of Bitcoin advocacy. You know there’s a delay between the time we buy the Bitcoin and the time Bitcoin goes to the moon. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) March 12, 2026 Bitcoin was trading around $70,800 at the time of writing. That price leaves Strategy sitting on approximately $3.35 billion in unrealized losses across its holdings. Saylor Makes The Case For Holding The losses have not shaken Saylor’s public stance. In a recent Fox Business interview, he laid out a scenario where Strategy continues paying dividends as long as Bitcoin appreciates at least 1.25% annually. He also said that if prices stay flat for years, the company would have roughly eight decades to rework its capital structure — a timeframe most public companies would never cite as a comfort measure. His longer-term projection is more aggressive. Saylor has said he expects Bitcoin to grow around 30% per year over the next two decades. That outlook underpins the company’s decision to keep buying regardless of short-term price swings. Related Reading: Cardano’s DeFi Boom: TVL Spikes 23% In Less Than 2 Weeks Analyst Notes Strength In Market Activity Meanwhile, some cryptocurrency analysts flagged a recent uptick in the Coinbase Premium — a metric used to gauge spot demand among US-based buyers. Based on that view, if Bitcoin holds above $70,000, the next resistance level to watch is around $74,000-$75,000. That figure is close to the average price Strategy paid across all of its Bitcoin purchases. For the company and many traders tracking its moves, it carries weight beyond a simple technical level. Whether the price reaches it soon — or much later, as Saylor suggests — remains to be seen. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

Crypto pundit Crypto Bully has shared his base case for Bitcoin and what to expect before the flagship crypto rallies above $100,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to hold above the $70,000 resistance amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.  Analyst Shares Base Case For Bitcoin In an X post, Crypto Bully stated that the path and exact levels of Bitcoin are not important in the long run, aside from immediate support and resistance levels. The analyst shared key points, including the observation that downside retests have not worked for a while. He pointed to the $85,000 level, which he noted is the logical lower high from the previous value generated before a further collapse due to extensive selling.  Related Reading: The Bitcoin Game Plan That Shows How To Navigate BTC Below $100,000 However, the analyst suggested that the downtrend is not over, noting that bear market bottoms take months, not weeks. His accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could still drop to $50,000. In the short term, he predicted that the flagship crypto could drop to $65,000. As for the bullish outlook for BTC, Crypto Bully stated that a break above the current level near $72,000 could easily spark a rally towards $85,000. He explained that a Bitcoin rally to $85,000 is possible, given the strength the flagship crypto has shown amid the ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The analyst added that the aggressive inflows into the BTC ETFs have not disappeared during this period. SoSoValue data shows that the Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $767 million this week.  Crypto Bull said the best DCA strategy is to buy Bitcoin whenever it drops from $65,000 down to $50,000. He revealed that his current spot buying average is around $67,000.  BTC Is Not Yet At A Bottom A CryptoQuant analysis noted that the Bitcoin bottom is “not quite” in. The analysis revealed that, despite BTC’s resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions, on-chain data indicate the leading crypto is in a critical “stress test” phase. It added that the bottoming process could take a long while, with institutions being the primary investors in this cycle.  Related Reading: Has Bitcoin Price Bottomed Yet? Analyst Says We’re Not There Yet The analysis also highlighted two paths to a Bottom for Bitcoin. The first path is a potential Black Swan that could trigger a crash, forcing liquidations and wiping out high-cost “new money.” CryptoQuant noted that this is the fastest route to a solid floor, which could form between one and two months.  The second path is longer and involves a scenario in which Bitcoin trades sideways between $60,000 and $80,000 for a year, allowing new money to grow into long-term holder status. Under this path, the bear market could extend to late 2026 or early 2027.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how Bitcoin has only seen a relatively thin accumulation band form during the recent consolidation range. Bitcoin STH CBD Shows Accumulation Remains Thin In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) of the short-term holders. The CBD here refers to an indicator that tells us about the amount of supply that was purchased at the various price levels visited by BTC in its history. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Mirror Late-2022 Levels Seen Before 67% Rally: Santiment The CBD of the short-term holders (STHs) specifically tracks this for the supply that was purchased within the past 155 days. The short time frame means that supply clusters on the indicator always thin out over time, whether by coins from them being moved at other price levels (thus regaining their cost basis there) or by maturing into the long-term holder (LTH) cohort, beyond the 155-day cutoff. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the Bitcoin STH CBD has changed over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH CBD gained a large supply cluster at the price lows seen back in November, indicating that a notable amount of fresh accumulation took place in response to the market crash. This dense supply zone then acted as a support cushion for the asset, helping stabilize it into a phase of consolidation. Eventually, though, the cryptocurrency’s bearish momentum returned and its price plummeted deep under the cluster. This implies that all tokens part of it have gone underwater. Besides the strong supply zone at the range’s lower end, the consolidation phase from November-January also resulted in some higher levels being filled out with supply. This accumulation wasn’t quite as strong as at the lows, but it still nonetheless showed that coins were actively changing hands. Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized into another phase of sideways movement, but from the chart, it’s apparent that this time there has neither been a strong dip buying response, nor a buildup of a significant supply cluster as the consolidation has gone on. That said, buying hasn’t been completely absent, with some supply starting to find cost basis inside the zone. “An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range,” noted Glassnode. “However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Requires STH Profitability Above 50%: Glassnode It now remains to be seen how the supply range will develop in the near future. For now, the foundation provided by it remains thin for a mid-term breakout, according to the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $71,100, up nearly 5% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) made a notable recovery on Friday, witnessing a 4% surge that led the leading cryptocurrency to retest the critical $74,000 resistance level, which has remained unbroken for the past month.  However, even with this upward movement, the cryptocurrency has retraced to approximately $72,215, establishing itself at the upper boundary of its ongoing consolidation range. Further Declines For Bitcoin Ahead? Analyst Sunny Mom from CryptoQuant emphasizes that, despite these recoveries, Bitcoin has yet to establish a definitive bottom. She suggests that further price declines may be ahead, as current on-chain data reveals that the market is in a significant “stress test” phase.  Diving into the data, Sunny identifies several key factors that indicate the challenges ahead for Bitcoin. First, she points to the 6-12 month cohort of investors, who are currently underwater due to their Realized Price (RP) being concentrated around $100,000.  This means that many of these mid-term holders are seeing losses, which could continue to exert downward pressure on prices until this imbalance resolves.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Sunny also highlights the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which stands at 1.2. This figure is commonly regarded as a “DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) zone” for “smart money.” However, substantial cyclical bottoms typically require the MVRV to be less than 1.0, indicating a state of capitulation.  Furthermore, the importance of long-term holders (LTHs) cannot be overstated. A sustainable price floor generally requires that LTHs—those who have held their positions for over two years—constitute more than 20% of the Realized Cap.  Currently, they make up only about 15%, suggesting that the market lacks the robust structural support needed for a strong recovery. She outlines two potential paths for how Bitcoin could find its bottom.  Two Potential Paths To Find A True Bottom The first involves a “Black Swan” event—a sudden crash that triggers forced liquidations among high-cost investors. Although painful, Sunny believes this scenario could lead to a faster establishment of a solid Bitcoin price floor, potentially within one to two months.  The second path, referred to as “The Great Boring,” envisions institutions maintaining their positions, allowing Bitcoin to trade in the $60,000 to $80,000 range for an extended period.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance The analyst asserts that this would enable new investments to mature into long-term holdings, setting the stage for a bottoming process that could extend into late 2026 or early 2027. While the market may be at a “Value Bottom” conducive to long-term dollar-cost averaging, Sunny’s analysis suggests that a true “Structural Bottom” for Bitcoin has yet to form. Consequently, she noted that volatility within the $60,000 to $70,000 range is anticipated.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

More than $246 million in crypto futures positions were wiped out in a single day as Bitcoin reversed sharply on Thursday, punishing traders who had bet against the market. The leading cryptocurrency climbed back to around $73,300 — a gain of roughly 4.5% over 24 hours — after a stretch of selling had dragged prices into the high $60,000 range. Related Reading: Cardano’s DeFi Boom: TVL Spikes 23% In Less Than 2 Weeks The move carried the hallmarks of a short squeeze. Funding rates had gone deeply negative in the days before the reversal, a sign that bearish bets had piled up on exchanges. When prices turned higher, those positions were forced to close. Volume surged, and the rally fed on itself. Buyers Step In Ahead Of Major Resistance Bitcoin had been trading near $71,500 before buyers moved in. Reports from trading data firm TradingView placed the price at approximately $72,900 at publication time. The recovery came against a backdrop of broader risk appetite returning to financial markets, with the S&P 500 posting gains and the US dollar softening — conditions that have historically drawn money into alternative assets like Bitcoin. Institutional demand played a role too. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds helped put a floor under prices during earlier sell-offs this year, keeping losses shallower than they might otherwise have been. That dynamic marks a notable shift from past cycles, when Bitcoin often fell in lockstep with equities during periods of stress. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added a layer of uncertainty throughout the week, but Bitcoin held its ground, a fact traders pointed to as evidence of broader market acceptance of the asset. Open Interest Stays Elevated At $48B The derivatives market remains stretched. Open interest across major exchanges sat near $48 billion, according to data aggregated by Coinglass, with CME Bitcoin futures alone accounting for roughly $7.9 billion — or around 110,000 BTC. Positioning had shifted toward call options heading into the move, suggesting some traders had already anticipated a push higher. That level of open interest cuts both ways. It reflects strong participation and genuine conviction from both retail and institutional traders. Related Reading: Ghana’s Crypto Push Begins As 11 Companies Enter SEC Sandbox But it also means the market stays vulnerable to sharp swings if headlines change fast. A single piece of macro news — a Federal Reserve signal, an escalation overseas, a policy shift — could flip the mood quickly. Bitcoin has shed its old reputation as a pure risk-on trade, at least partly. Advocates increasingly frame it as a store of value in environments where governments spend freely and currencies weaken. Whether that framing holds under pressure remains an open question, but Thursday’s recovery did little to discourage those who believe it. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson argues on X that collapsing mining economics, combined with a growing shift by public miners toward AI and high-performance compute, could turn corporate BTC treasuries into a fresh source of market supply. “A large underappreciated headwind for Bitcoin is the disaster that which is mining economics. The only way this heals is through a decline in hashrate, which is being spearheaded by the AI compute first movers like CORZ, WULF, CIFR, IREN, etc.,” Thompson wrote. The chart Thompson shared, frames the problem visually. It shows aggregate bitcoin holdings across major listed miners climbing sharply through 2024 and 2025 before rolling over in 2026. Thompson’s argument is not that the AI pivot is bearish in structural terms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone On the contrary, lower hashrate and less uneconomic competition could improve mining industry health over time. His point is that the transition itself is expensive, and that capex-heavy AI buildouts may force miners to liquidate BTC that had previously been treated as strategic treasury. “While helpful to long-term health and sustainability of the network economics, it presents a dilemma for prices in the near-term as Bitcoin miners hold almost 80,000 Bitcoin on their balance sheets. As these companies pivot away from BTC mining, they 1) need capital to fund the AI buildout capex requirements and 2) have no reason to hold any BTC on their balance sheet (not that they should have before either),” he argued. Bitcoin Miners Pivot To AI The 2025 filings and public data make that argument more concrete. Core Scientific’s fourth-quarter results showed the business mix tilting away from mining and toward AI-related infrastructure: self-mining revenue fell to $42.2 million from $79.9 million a year earlier, while colocation revenue rose to $31.3 million from $8.5 million. Management said the decline in hosted mining reflected the “continued strategic shift” to high-density colocation. For full-year 2025, Core generated $402.5 million of proceeds from selling digital assets and ended the year with 2,537 BTC on its balance sheet. TeraWulf offers an even cleaner read-through. The company said that in 2025 it “solidified HPC hosting as its primary growth engine,” signed more than $12.8 billion in long-term customer contracts, and built a platform with 522 critical IT megawatts under contract. Yet the legacy mining business was still being monetized as that buildout took shape: fourth-quarter digital asset revenue was $26.1 million, versus $9.7 million in HPC lease revenue, and the company’s year-end digital asset rollforward shows 1,496 BTC mined, 1,500 BTC disposed of, and only 3 BTC left on the balance sheet at Dec. 31, 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Still Fall Under $10,000, Bloomberg’s McGlone Warns Cipher and IREN show two other versions of the same trend. Cipher said it increased its focus on HPC in 2025 and signed two HPC tenants for a combined 600 MW of data center capacity. It also sold bitcoin for approximately $214.7 million during the year. By year-end, Cipher had classified $94.9 million of Black Pearl mining rigs as held for sale after signing a sublease to transition the site to an HPC tenant. IREN, by contrast, has already taken the treasury issue largely off the table: with roughly 99,900 GPUs installed or on order as of Dec. 31, 2025, it said it “typically liquidate[s] all the Bitcoin we mine daily” and therefore held no bitcoin on its balance sheet at year-end. MARA matters for a different reason. It is not yet as far along as Core, TeraWulf, Cipher or IREN in converting mining sites into a full AI/HPC business, though it had deployed its first ten AI racks at Granbury by November 2025 and later announced a Starwood partnership for AI and HPC infrastructure. But MARA is the treasury heavyweight in the group, and its own 2025 disclosures moved in Thompson’s direction: the company said it began selling bitcoin in the second half of 2025, sold about 4,076 BTC for $413.1 million during the year, and still ended 2025 with roughly 53,822 BTC. That is the tension in Thompson’s thesis. A miner-led shift into AI can reduce hashrate pressure and improve the long-run economics of bitcoin mining. But the bridge from mining to AI is capital-intensive, and the 2025 filings show that bridge is already being funded with BTC sales, miner disposals and site conversions. For bitcoin, that means an industry adjustment that may be constructive later can still look like overhang now. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $72,322. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how a flip in Bitcoin short-term holder profitability could act as a precondition for a sustained price recovery. Bitcoin STH Supply In Profit Is Currently Under 50% In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Supply in Profit metric for the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs). The Supply in Profit measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the BTC supply that’s currently being held at some net unrealized gain. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Mirror Late-2022 Levels Seen Before 67% Rally: Santiment In the context of the current topic, only the above-water supply held by the BTC STHs is of relevance. This cohort includes all addresses that purchased their tokens within the past 155 days. The STHs make up one of the two main divisions of the market, based on holding time, with the other side being known as the long-term holders (LTHs). Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell them in the future. As such, the STHs with their relatively low holding time are considered to represent the weak-minded side of the market, while the LTHs include the diamond hands. As the chart below for the Supply in Profit of the STHs shows, the new entrants to the market were enjoying a high degree of profitability before Bitcoin experienced a bearish shift in Q4 2025: The price decline has caused the indicator’s value to plummet, meaning a chunk of the tokens held by the Bitcoin STHs have gone underwater. From the graph, it’s apparent that the indicator dropped below the 50% mark a while ago and has continued to be in this low profitability zone since. In the past, this cohort being under stress has generally meant a lack of demand in the market. “Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%,” noted Glassnode. In the chart, a few examples of the STH Supply in Profit flipping back above 50% are visible, with the latest one being the price rebound from the first half of 2025. Back then, a return of profits for the cohort led to a Bitcoin rally that set new price all-time highs (ATHs). Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone Given this trend, it’s possible that a flip in the metric above the 50% level could once again be of significance for the cryptocurrency. “Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery,” explained the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making a fresh attempt at the $72,000 level following its surge of 3% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

The institutional access to Ethereum continues to expand as traditional finance deepens its involvement in digital asset markets. A new development drawing attention is the launch of BlackRock’s ETHB, which introduces another potential channel for capital to flow into the ETH ecosystem. This product provides investors with regulated exposure to ETH through familiar market infrastructure. BlackRock has opened a new potential inflow channel for Ethereum with the launch of its staked ETH Trust, ETHB, which has begun trading. Analyst Milk Road has revealed on X that this ETHB is not just another ETH ETF, but one that actually pays investors while holding it. The development follows the rapid growth of BlackRock’s earlier crypto funds. The firm’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has grown to roughly $55 billion in assets, while its first ETH ETF product, iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), reached about $6.5 billion in assets shortly after launch. Both funds are ranked among the fastest-growing ETF launches in history, and ETHB is attempting to achieve what neither product couldn’t by combining ETH price exposure with staking rewards, which is the closest thing crypto has to a dividend. How The New Product Provides Exposure To Ethereum Staking For many investors, direct staking can be complicated, and participating typically requires 32 ETH, a technical setup, and acceptance of certain lock-up risks. ETHB aims to simplify that process by packaging staking within a regulated investment product that can be purchased through a standard brokerage account. The fund also introduces a relatively low management fee set at 0.12% on the first $2.5 billion in assets. Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Reaches Historic Levels, Price Hovers Near $2K Milk Road explains that if this move is successful, ETH could increasingly be treated as a yield-generating digital asset within a 401(k).  Retirement accounts and pension funds can now gain access to staking rewards without directly interacting with wallets. For many, ETH is a technology bet and a narrative that takes a real hit, but it is now an income-generating digital asset. Thus, the first wave of spot ETH ETFs launched without staking functionality was rejected by the regulators. Now, they’ve accepted it because the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) effectively says that staking rewards are not securities, at least when wrapped inside a BlockRock product. Related Reading: Ethereum Breakout Alert: Corrective Channel Flip Sparks Impulsive Wave With BlackRock already managing tens of billions of dollars in BTC and ETH, ETHB presents a third channel for investor flow. Milk Road believes that if the product follows the same trajectory, it could become a significant new driver of institutional demand for ETH. Ethereum Sees Another Wave Of Aggressive Long Position Accumulation An analyst known as CW highlighted that Ethereum has continued to experience strong net buying pressure in long positions, following a surge that first appeared the previous day. The buying pattern closely mirrors the wave that occurred earlier, where large-scale purchases were executed within a short timeframe. Currently, the market appears to be taking a brief pause after the surge in long positions. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst is calling for a $40,000 Bitcoin price surge within 60 days, and the macro environment may be building the case for exactly that. Bitcoin is still pushing around $70,000, and many traders are watching closely after weeks of volatility across global markets.  Bitcoin Will Have Its Turn Very Soon One market participant known as ₿ariksis suggested that the Bitcoin price could surge from $70,000 to $110,000 within the next 60 days if the current macro and technical conditions are set up well.  Related Reading: Has Bitcoin Price Bottomed Yet? Analyst Says We’re Not There Yet The prediction from ₿ariksis is built on rotation across major assets. Gold, silver, and oil have delivered strong upward moves in recent weeks. Gold, silver, and oil have already recorded strong moves in recent weeks.  Both gold and silver have been pushing to new all-time highs in recent months, but Bitcoin has lagged behind. Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, which is another type of rapid rally that can unfold across markets. Bitcoin is already known for how fast things can change, and this serves as a reminder that the leading cryptocurrency could be next in line for a fast repricing. A move from $70,000 to $110,000 in 60 days would require a gain of about 57%. This is obviously volatile, but not outside Bitcoin’s historical character once momentum and liquidity line up.  Bitcoin Is Already Winning The Battle Of Relative Strength The case for Bitcoin’s resilience was sharpened further by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who shared a normalized comparative chart tracking Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 from February 28. Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted Bitcoin’s Recovery Will End Badly, But What’s Next? According to the chart shared by Hayes, Bitcoin has outperformed gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the US-Iran war started on February 28. Bitcoin’s line pushes above both gold and the Nasdaq over the period in the normalized performance chart, even as the oil and gas price spikes created the kind of macro conditions that usually punish risk assets. Bitcoin gained approximately 7% over the measured period, while gold declined roughly 2% and the Nasdaq 100 edged down 0.5%. “Relative to similar type large risky assets, $BTC did the best when viewed against oil and gas energy price spikes,” Hayes noted. There is also a second layer to this story: institutional conviction has not disappeared during the turbulence. For instance, Strategy recently disclosed that it acquired another 17,994 BTC for about $1.28 billion, bringing its total holdings to 738,731 BTC. The technical side of the bullish case shows Bitcoin’s price action is now touching a rising diagonal support that connects major cycle bottoms from 2018, 2020, 2022, and now 2026. The newest touch is marked near the mid-$60,000 area, almost exactly where Bitcoin has been trying to stabilize. Each prior interaction with that trendline came near important cycle lows, and each was followed by a major recovery phase. According to a crypto analyst that goes by the name Vivek San, Bitcoin rallied 450% the last time this setup appeared. The projection by the analyst points to a return above $100,000, then sketches a possible extension above $240,000 into 2027. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout.  However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase. Bitcoin Recovery In Sight?  Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month.  Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis.  When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend. Potential Upside Emerges The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000. Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin and crypto exchanges built much of the cryptocurrency industry’s reputation by challenging traditional finance. However, as major Wall Street institutions deepen their involvement in crypto services, the structure of the market could begin to change in ways that place pressure on both exchanges and the broader ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin. Why Bitcoin And Crypto Exchanges Could Face Pressure Recent industry commentary highlights how large financial institutions are gradually positioning themselves to compete directly with crypto exchanges. Among them, Morgan Stanley has been expanding its digital asset capabilities, moving beyond simple exposure products toward services such as crypto trading, custody, and staking. The development signals a broader shift in which traditional finance is no longer observing the crypto sector from the sidelines. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Needs To Flow Through Ripple For XRP Price To Reach $3,700 One key factor behind this shift is infrastructure. In the early years of the industry, building a crypto trading platform required specialized blockchain engineering, complex wallet systems, and custom liquidity networks. That barrier created a protective moat for early exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. Today, however, specialized infrastructure providers, including Fireblocks, Copper, Talos, and Zero Hash, allow financial institutions to integrate crypto trading systems far more quickly. With these tools, banks can launch digital asset services in just months. Distribution power further strengthens this advantage. If crypto trading becomes integrated into existing brokerage dashboards alongside equities and bonds, clients may access digital assets without leaving their primary investment accounts. In that scenario, exchanges would no longer be the default destination for crypto trading. Capital efficiency is another area where traditional institutions excel. Unlike exchanges, which operate as isolated platforms for digital assets, banks can offer multi-asset trading environments where stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, derivatives, and cryptocurrencies exist within the same account. This structure allows investors to move collateral across markets and execute complex strategies without transferring funds between separate platforms. Crypto Exchanges Face A Strategic Crossroads Another pressure point lies in pricing. Many crypto exchanges rely heavily on transaction fees as their primary revenue stream. Large financial institutions, by contrast, operate diversified business models that include lending, asset management, advisory services, custody, and prime brokerage. Because of these multiple revenue channels, banks could reduce trading costs significantly, potentially compressing the fee structures that exchanges depend on. Related Reading: Dogecoin Descending Channel Shows Where It Is In This Cycle Institutional trust also plays a role in shaping where large investors choose to trade. Established financial firms like Morgan Stanley have decades of regulatory infrastructure and longstanding client relationships. For institutions already managing capital through those firms, conducting crypto transactions within the same framework may appear more straightforward than onboarding to an entirely separate exchange. Analysts note that liquidity often follows institutional capital. Morgan Stanley’s $9 trillion asset base alone dwarfs the assets held on many crypto trading platforms. If even a fraction of that capital begins flowing through bank-operated crypto desks, trading activity could gradually shift away from traditional exchanges. For the crypto sector, this shift is prompting a strategic reassessment, as competition could increasingly favor traditional financial institutions entering digital asset markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Wall Street’s biggest gold fund saw something unusual recently — a single-day outflow of $3 billion from SPDR Gold Shares, a number that dwarfed any comparable daily exit over the prior two years by more than 200%. The $3 billion single-day outflow from SPDR Gold Shares — a US gold-backed ETF trading under the ticker GLD — was flagged by the Kobeissi Letter as exceeding any comparable daily exit over the prior two years by more than 200%. Related Reading: Ghana’s Crypto Push Begins As 11 Companies Enter SEC Sandbox On the same side of the ledger, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded over $900 million in net inflows over the 30 days ending March 11, swinging from close to $2 billion outflow the month before. BREAKING: The largest US gold-backed ETF, $GLD, posted a record -$3.0 billion outflow on Wednesday. This surpasses any previous large daily outflow seen over the last 2 years by +200%. At the same time, silver ETFs recorded small outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs saw modest inflows.… pic.twitter.com/XF8y99cPSV — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 6, 2026 A Ratio To Watch The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has pulled back to a support zone near 12-13 — a level that blocked further gains in 2017, then flipped to support in 2022 and 2023. Analysts say that history gives the current price level added weight. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, points to a bullish divergence forming between the ratio and the relative strength index on the daily chart. In plain terms, that means selling pressure appears to be fading even as prices have stayed under stress. Whether that signal holds is another matter, but it has drawn attention from traders tracking Bitcoin’s long-term standing against gold. #Bitcoin vs. Gold is currently breaking upwards after a confirmation of the bullish divergence. This should indicate that we’re about to see significantly more strength in Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/vwIpwJ82qz — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 11, 2026 The shift in ETF holdings reinforces the picture. Bitcoin ETF balances improved by roughly 12,900 BTC in the last monthly timeframe, while gold ETF holdings fell by nearly 800,000 ounces during a similar window. Capital appears to be moving, even if slowly. Institutions Are Coming, Just Not Yet In Full Binance Research flagged the current stretch of market volatility as what it called an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has traded in step with oil and US equities recently, moving alongside broader macro assets as the US-Israel and Iran conflict has kept global markets on edge. Despite that turbulence, institutional interest has not dried up. US spot ETFs now account for roughly 9% of total Bitcoin trading volume. That sounds modest — and it is. In US equity markets, ETFs account for 30-40% of total trading volume. The gap tells its own story about how much room remains for institutional participation to grow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crosses 20 Million Coins Mined — And Only 1 In 20 Remains History Offers A Cautionary But Compelling Pattern Midterm election years have not been kind to risk assets. The S&P 500 has averaged a peak-to-trough drop of 16% during those cycles. Bitcoin’s drawdowns have been steeper, averaging around 56%. But the 12 months after midterm elections have, without exception since 1939, produced positive returns for the S&P 500, averaging 19% gains. Bitcoin, with only three post-midterm years on record, has averaged 54% gains across all three. Reports from Binance Research also identified $78,000 as the level Bitcoin would need to reclaim to signal a broader trend reversal. BTC was trading around $71,500 at the time of publication. The distance between the two numbers is not enormous, but in a market moving this quickly, it is not small either. Featured image from Incrementum, chart from TradingView

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin has moved into a historically attractive accumulation area, but not yet the kind of deep-discount zone that defined the best buying opportunities of prior cycles. In his view, the setup is constructive for long-term holders, though still lacking the confirmation needed to call a durable bottom. Speaking with Crypto Consulting Institute’s Joe Shew, Edwards framed Bitcoin as “closer to the bottom than the top,” with multiple on-chain metrics pointing to value even as price action remains damaged. He stopped short, however, of calling the current range a standout opportunity. “Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it’s close to the bottom than the top,” Edwards said. “Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it’s not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we’ve seen in prior cycles.” That distinction matters. Edwards said Capriole still holds a small net long Bitcoin position, but the levels that would make him “super excited” sit lower, around the production-cost band between roughly $50,000 and $60,000, with the low-to-mid $50,000s standing out as particularly attractive. Historically, he said, Bitcoin has spent months in that zone during major cycle lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone For investors with a multi-year horizon, Edwards argued that some exposure still makes sense. But he cautioned that value alone is not enough. “As with any asset, equities, anything, you can be in a value zone for a long time,” he said. What is missing, in his telling, is a convincing signal of renewed strength through either a deeper capitulation, a technical breakout, or more durable evidence of demand. Bitcoin Institutional Flows Improving, But Not Decisive One of the clearest positives in Edwards’ framework is institutional buying. He described net purchases from U.S. spot ETFs and roughly 200 treasury companies as one of the most important Bitcoin metrics today, especially when those inflows exceed daily mined supply. “If it’s net positive, especially if it’s above the amount of Bitcoin it’s mined per day, so it’s greater than the organic supply, then that is really positive,” he said. “We’ve seen all the major price appreciation when that’s net positive.” Still, he noted that most of those buyers remain underwater. According to Edwards, about 80% of ETFs and treasury vehicles are currently below cost basis, reinforcing what he called “typical bear market vibes.” A more meaningful signal, he said, would be strong flows holding for a week or two while Bitcoin stays above the $70,000 area, with a weekly close above roughly $71,500 acting as a line in the sand for a more bullish short-term outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Still Fall Under $10,000, Bloomberg’s McGlone Warns Even then, he warned that a rally into the mid-$70,000s or low $80,000s would not necessarily end the broader bearish structure. Quantum Risk Remains The Overhang The biggest reason Edwards is unwilling to get more aggressive is quantum computing risk, which he said is capping Bitcoin’s upside in a way previous cycles never had. He argued the market has already priced in much of that concern, but until Bitcoin Core developers begin treating it as a serious priority, upside may remain constrained. “I honestly think we may not see new all-time highs until it’s addressed by the core team,” Edwards said. “The opportunity is actually skewed to the upside in that as soon as you get two or three or four core developers to start talking about it openly about solving it, I think we can get significant repricing to the upside.” That leaves Bitcoin in an unusual position. Edwards sees a macro backdrop that should favor hard assets, with strong liquidity conditions and gold in a long-term outperformance regime against equities. Under normal circumstances, he suggested, that would be a supportive environment for Bitcoin too. For now, though, he sees a market in value territory rather than true deep value, promising, but not yet compelling. At press time, BTC traded at $71,466. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted how the average Bitcoin returns of the buyers from the past year are looking similar to late 2022. 365-Day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Plunged Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its Realized Cap. The Realized Cap here refers to a capitalization model that calculates the total value of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the ‘real’ value of each token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, this metric represents the sum of the capital stored in the asset by all investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone Since the market cap is the amount held by investors in the present, its comparison with the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit-loss status of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the investors are in a state of net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being under the mark suggests the dominance of losses. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific investor cohorts: 30-day and 365-day buyers. The MVRV Ratios of these groups naturally tell us about the average returns for coins purchased over the past month and past year, respectively. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MVRV Ratios for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is currently sitting at the +2.8% mark, suggesting short-term buyers are in a state of slight profit. This could raise the chances of a profit-taking selloff occurring, but perhaps not by much as these returns aren’t significant enough to fall inside what the analytics firm defines as the “Danger Zone.” The picture is a bit different when it comes to the profitability of the 1-year investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the MVRV Ratio has plunged to the -26.6% mark for this group, which is well past the boundary for the “Opportunity Zone.” Interestingly, the last time that the indicator fell to such a low level was at the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. “When the 365-day MVRV was severely negative following the FTX collapse, $BTC proceeded to rise +67% in the following 3 months,” noted Santiment. Related Reading: XRP Bollinger Bands Are Squeezing—Volatility Incoming? That said, while the current value is similar to back then, the structure itself more resembles that of mid-2022, since the metric has only recently plummeted to these levels, while in late 2022, it was on the way back up. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $70,500, down nearly 1% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year’s US midterm elections.  New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500. Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?  The research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years.  Binance’s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500—marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.  Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years. The research emphasizes what they call “The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly.  The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well.  If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles.  With Bitcoin’s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached.  Is The End Of The Bear Market Near? NewsBTC reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on February 6. Related Reading: White House Crypto Advisor Denounces Attempts To Sabotage CLARITY Act’s Goals Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path. With this pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Long-term holders now control roughly 14.5 million BTC — coins that have not moved in over five months and show little sign of heading back to market anytime soon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crosses 20 Million Coins Mined — And Only 1 In 20 Remains Coins Keep Moving Off Platforms That deep freeze in holder behavior is part of a larger pattern reshaping how Bitcoin is stored and traded. Exchange reserves across all centralized platforms have dropped to approximately 2.75 million BTC as of March 12, according to data from CryptoQuant. That marks the lowest level recorded since 2019 and represents a loss of nearly half a million coins from exchange wallets over roughly two years. The pullback has been driven by three main forces: retail and institutional holders moving coins into private cold storage, spot Bitcoin ETFs steadily absorbing supply since their US launch in late 2023, and publicly traded companies building large treasury positions. On a single day in recent weeks, withdrawals from exchanges hit 32,000 BTC. Net flows turned negative and stayed there. Corporate Buyers Add Pressure to Shrinking Supply Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has continued stacking coins at scale. Reports indicate that publicly listed companies collectively took in close to 350,000 BTC over a recent stretch, pulling a significant chunk of circulating supply away from trading venues. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added to the draw, pulling in close to $570 million net in a single week. When fewer coins sit on exchanges ready to be sold, even modest waves of buying can move prices sharply. There simply is not enough supply on the order books to absorb demand without price shifting. That dynamic, sometimes called a supply squeeze, has historically preceded stronger price runs — though timing those moves is far from predictable. Price Holds Steady After February Drop Bitcoin spent much of February under pressure, sliding to the low $60,000s before recovering. The coin has since climbed back and been trading in a band between $67,000 and $71,000, hovering near $69,000 to $70,000 as of this report. A break above $72,000 could trigger forced buybacks from traders betting on lower prices, which would add upward momentum. Related Reading: Cardano’s DeFi Boom: TVL Spikes 23% In Less Than 2 Weeks Miners are watching closely. Their breakeven cost on electricity alone sits near $64,000 to $65,000, meaning a sustained drop below that level could force some operators to sell reserves to cover costs. Daily trading volume has remained above $50 billion, which analysts read as steady participation rather than speculative frenzy. Whether the tightening supply eventually pulls prices higher depends on whether fresh demand arrives fast enough to match conviction among current holders — most of whom, based on their behavior, appear in no rush to sell. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above the $70,000 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $72,000. Bitcoin started a decent recovery wave above the $70,000 zone. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bullish flag with resistance at $70,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $70,400 and $70,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Aims Steady Gains Bitcoin price remained elevated and extended its increase above the $69,200 level. BTC climbed above the $69,500 and $70,000 resistance levels. There was a break above a bullish flag with resistance at $70,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even climbed above the $71,000 level. A high was formed at $71,750, and the pair is now consolidating gains near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $68,971 swing low to the $71,750 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,400, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $71,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level. A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $71,750 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $68,971 swing low to the $71,750 high. The first major support is near the $70,000 level. The next support is now near the $68,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $67,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $66,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $70,400, followed by $70,000. Major Resistance Levels – $71,750 and $72,000.

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has jumped to a value of 30, indicating bearish conditions persist for the asset, but are no longer as extreme. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Has Seen A Small Uptick In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about the latest trend in the Bull Score Index for Bitcoin. This indicator basically tells us about the phase of the market that the cryptocurrency is currently in. The metric determines this by referring to the data of ten indicators covering different aspects of the network. Some of the major on-chain indicators part of the index include the MVRZ Z-Score, Realized Price, and CryptoQuant P&L Index. Related Reading: XRP Bollinger Bands Are Squeezing—Volatility Incoming? The Bull Score Index’s value corresponds to the number of these metrics that are currently giving a bullish signal for BTC. For example, a value of 60 implies six indicators are giving the green light. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows how the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fluctuated over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index dropped to a value of zero earlier, implying that all ten indicators turned bearish on the digital asset. The red signals on the metrics came after the asset’s price experienced a significant drawdown. Recently, the Bull Score Index has observed some recovery, implying improvements in on-chain indicators. The surge hasn’t been too massive, however, taking the metric to a value of 30, corresponding to just three indicators giving bullish signals. “Bull flags that turned on were: exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity growth, and price momentum,” explained the analyst. Nonetheless, the jump has been enough to lift the Bull Score Index out of the “extra bearish” zone, corresponding to values of 20 and below. The normal bearish zone has its cutoff at 40, so at least two more indicators will have to turn green before the indicator can escape it as well. Whether the current Bull Score Index recovery will actually lead to it escaping the bearish territory may come down to whether the market recovery is part of a wider shift. The CryptoQuant head doesn’t think it’s the case, noting, “We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Bets Surge—Will Bears Get Squeezed? In some other news, Bitcoin sellers have taken to loss-taking on the net recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post. From the chart, it’s visible that the 90-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is now under the 1 mark, meaning losses are outpacing profits. “Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it,” said Glassnode. BTC Price Bitcoin has already recovered back above the $70,000 level from its dip under $66,000 during the weekend. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Leshka has explained why it is unlikely that the Bitcoin price has bottomed even as it continues to attempt a recovery above $70,000. His analysis also aligns with predictions from analysts such as Doctor Profit, who predict that BTC could still drop to $40,000.  Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Bottomed In an X post, Leshka noted that the Bitcoin price has never bottomed after a drawdown of just 47%. He further remarked that every bear market in history saw at least 78% drawdown from the top. BTC notably saw drawdowns of around 87%; 84%; and 73% in 2013, 2017, and 2021, respectively.  Related Reading: Pundit Reveals Why Bitcoin Is Headed For Another Crash To $42,000 As such, the analyst declared that the Bitcoin price is not yet at a bottom and that another flush to the downside is approaching. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could still drop to around $50,000 before it finds a macro bottom in this market cycle. Leshka noted that the leading crypto continues to retest the $72,000 resistance and has failed to hold above it on every attempt. Based on this, he predicted that a drop to $55,000 is next.  Crypto analyst Doctor Profit also recently warned that the Bitcoin price hasn’t found a macro bottom, though he predicted that BTC could form a local bottom between $57,000 and $60,000. In the long term, he still expects Bitcoin to drop below $50,000 and into the low $40,000, which he believes will mark the macro bottom.  Doctor Profit stated that the leading crypto could find a bottom between September and October later this year. In the meantime, he predicts that the Bitcoin price could see a relief bounce or continue trading sideways before recording another leg to the downside.  BTC Is In The ‘Relief Rally’ Phase In an X post, crypto analyst Julio Moreno noted that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has reached 30, its highest level since late October. The index phase has switched from extra bearish to bearish while bull flags have turned on for exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity growth, and price momentum. However, he warned that the Bitcoin price is still in a bear market and is simply seeing a relief rally.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Candlestick Structure That Led To Crash To Below $20,000 Last Cycle Just Appeared Again Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that in bear markets, the Bitcoin price will often spend more time going up than going down. However, when it goes down, it drops very quickly, then sets a low, then trends back up for a few weeks to months before dropping again. “You can see the change in market structure from bull to bear,” he added.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said bitcoin could still fall back toward and potentially below the $10,000 area, arguing that crypto remains trapped in a broader macro unwind tied to deflationary pressure, overstretched risk assets and what he described as excess across the digital-asset complex. Speaking in an interview with EllioTrades, McGlone reiterated a call he first revived when bitcoin was above $100,000: that the market could again “lop off a zero.” This time, he framed the thesis less as a pure crypto-cycle forecast and more as a macro view on what happens when speculative assets begin to roll over together. The Thesis For $10,000 Bitcoin McGlone’s core argument was that bitcoin is no longer trading as a detached alternative asset. In his telling, it has been absorbed into the same cross-asset risk regime as equities, commodities and broader liquidity conditions. “Bitcoin was one in 2009 and now there’s 37 million cryptocurrencies,” he said. “Bitcoin was one. So limited supply. But this space led the way up in risk assets… Now they’re leading the way lower.” Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Says He Wouldn’t Buy Bitcoin Yet: Wait For This He tied that view to what he sees as a post-inflation deflationary phase, with bond markets, not crypto, likely to be the next relative winners. McGlone said the sharp move in energy, metals and crypto volatility has not yet fully spilled into equities, but expects that to change. His base case is that stock-market volatility rises materially from still-subdued levels, triggering a deeper correction in both equities and digital assets. That, in turn, underpins his bitcoin target. McGlone said he is not identifying $10,000 as a precise cycle low so much as the most important long-duration trading zone in the asset’s history from 2019-2020. “If you look at the highest most widely traded price in Bitcoin since 2020, maybe even going out to 2019, it’s 10,000 or lower and has a history of fluctuating around 10,000,” he said. “So my premise is we’re going back to that level.” The strategist was especially blunt about the rest of the sector. He argued that stablecoins are the only clear structural winners inside crypto because they “track something physical,” namely the dollar and Treasury-based collateral. Everything else, he suggested, depends largely on speculative belief. He pointed to the massive growth of Tether and broader crypto-dollar supply as evidence that the base layer of the ecosystem is increasing dollar demand, not appreciation in volatile tokens. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Sandwiched’ Between Two Key Zones As Price Tops $71,000 – Major Move Ahead? McGlone also said the speculative excess of 2024 and 2025, amplified by memecoins, ETFs and post-election enthusiasm around Donald Trump, may have marked a durable top for the broader asset class. “The bottom line is these risk assets have to prove me wrong,” he said. “Otherwise, I see us navigating and riding a bear market in equities, a bull market in volatility that’s barely getting started.” EllioTrades pushed back on both the magnitude of the bitcoin call and the idea that crypto is effectively “dead,” arguing that Bitcoin could still reassert itself as a debasement hedge and that stablecoin-based agentic commerce, privacy use cases and a post-washout class of surviving projects could support a future recovery. He also argued that, while many tokens may still go to zero, the surviving tokens of the market may follow a familiar purge-and-rebirth pattern seen in earlier cycles. McGlone did not rule out that crypto eventually finds a bottom. But his message was that the market is not there yet. For now, he said, bitcoin and the wider complex are still behaving like risk assets in a bear phase and until equities correct more meaningfully and stay down for a while, rallies should be treated with caution rather than as proof that the cycle has turned. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $69,890. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most frustrating phase in the cycle.”  According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin finds itself in a period characterized by heightened uncertainty, with market signals indicating more hesitation than firm conviction. Bear Market Signals Three key on-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase for market participants, specifically Apparent Demand, the CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, and the Long-Term Holder SOPR. Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion After the most recent sell-off, Apparent Demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting that opportunistic buyers were stepping in to capitalize on the recent price drop. However, this uptick was short-lived, quickly retreating to negative territory.  Moreno also emphasized the absence of persistent buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he believes shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices. The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment, as it currently signals a phase typically associated with bear market consolidation.  Moreover, the analyst noted that the behavioral dynamics at play can influence the cost bases of various market cohorts. He asserts that as short-term holders realize losses or transition to longer-term holders, the realized prices of Bitcoin can decline.  Lastly, the Long-Term Holder SOPR metric is beginning to show that even seasoned investors are starting to realize losses, dropping below the crucial threshold of 1. Historically, this tends to arise in the later stages of bear markets when extended uncertainty erodes even the staunchest beliefs in the asset’s value.  Bitcoin Eyes $72,000–$73,000 Resistance Level In the context of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, outperforming gold and traditional stocks during the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.  Crypto stocks have also benefited, given their ability to be traded at any hour, unhindered by banking schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:  Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an edge for the asset class. When the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, crypto-native markets were the only venue open for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate. Additionally, Bitcoin has seen a positive uptick of about 4% following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war may be winding down. Trump stated, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran has “nothing left in a military sense.” Related Reading: XRP Price Outlook: Analyst Foresees New All-Time Highs Above $40 In 2026 While attempting to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin is also seeking to break through its recent local high in the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone, which was unsuccessfully tested last week.  Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold with significant volume could shift the narrative from a mere short squeeze to a genuine momentum recovery. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The bridging protocol's team wants to exchange ACX tokens for equity in a new U.S. C-corp or buy holders out at a 25% premium, in what would be one of the first major reversals from token to traditional corporate structure.

Bitcoin price failed to extend its recovery wave above the $70,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might decline again below $68,500. Bitcoin started a decent recovery wave above the $68,500 zone. The price is trading above $68,650 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a key declining channel or a possible bullish flag forming with support at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,400 and $68,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Key Resistance Bitcoin price remained elevated and extended its increase above the $68,800 level. BTC climbed above the $69,500 and $70,000 resistance levels. The bulls pushed the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,062 swing high to the $65,645 low. However, the bears are still active near $71,200. The price failed to extend gains and started a bearish wave below $70,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key declining channel or a possible bullish flag forming with support at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $68,400, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $70,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $70,500 level. A close above the $70,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $71,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72,000 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,062 swing high to the $65,646 low. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,650. More Downside In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $70,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,800 level. The first major support is near the $68,400 level. The next support is now near the $68,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $67,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $66,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,400, followed by $68,000. Major Resistance Levels – $70,500 and $71,200.

Bybit blocked more than $300 million in unauthorized withdrawals during the final quarter of last year — a figure that puts February’s total crypto theft losses in sharp relief. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crosses 20 Million Coins Mined — And Only 1 In 20 Remains According to security firm Nominis, close to $50 million was stolen across the entire crypto industry last month, a fraction of what Bybit alone says it turned away in just three months. Attackers Home In On Human Error The drop from January’s $385 million in losses might look like progress, but security researchers say the more significant story is where the attacks are coming from. Social engineering — scams that trick people into handing over access — caused more cumulative damage in February than traditional software exploits did. Phishing campaigns climbed sharply during the month, with criminals sending fraudulent messages designed to get users to click malicious links or sign transactions they shouldn’t. The most common method was authorization abuse. Victims were manipulated into granting wallet permissions without realizing what they’d approved. Once those permissions were in place, attackers could move funds out freely. Private individuals bore the brunt of these attacks, not exchanges or large protocols. One Breach Drove Most Of The Damage A single incident accounted for most of February’s losses. Step Finance, a portfolio analytics platform built on Solana, was drained of approximately $30 million. Strip that one event out, and February would have been remarkably quiet by recent standards. The broader numbers back that up. Blockchain security company PeckShield put February losses at $26.5 million — the lowest monthly figure since March 2025. PeckShield credited stronger risk controls and better security practices across the industry for part of the decline. Big Losses Still Loom Over The Industry Even with a quieter month on the books, the industry’s annual toll remains staggering. Data from Chainalysis shows crypto hacks cost the industry $3.4 billion last year. That figure underscores how much ground still needs to be covered before theft can be called a contained problem. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break 5-Month Streak With 2nd Consecutive Week Of Inflows Bybit’s own numbers offer a window into how much active work that requires. The exchange said its fraud systems flagged roughly 350 high-risk addresses and stopped around 8,000 users from falling into potential scams — all in a single quarter. Reports indicate that while large-scale protocol attacks appear to be easing, the rise in scams targeting everyday users signals that criminals are simply redirecting their efforts. Better smart contract audits and stronger on-chain monitoring may be closing one door. But as long as people can be deceived into approving the wrong transaction, another door stays open. Featured image from Trillium Mutual Insurance, chart from TradingView

The security architecture surrounding Bitcoin continues to evolve as new infrastructure emerges to support self-custody and advanced on-chain protections. A notable step in this direction is the integration between Babylon Labs and Ledger. By combining Babylon’s protocol-level vault system with Ledger’s hardware wallet security, the collaboration seeks to strengthen how users store, manage, and interact with BTC in decentralized environments. How Babylon And Ledger Aim To Strengthen Bitcoin Self-Custody The Babylon platform is expanding access to Trustless Bitcoin Vaults through a new integration with Ledger. According to the Babylon Labs post on X, once the integration goes live in the second half of the year, users will be able to authorize BTCVault transactions directly from a ledger device using clear signing. This will allow 8 million Ledger users to review and approve vault operations on a secure hardware screen. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Data Identifies Unusual Market Cap Behavior – Details These Trustless BTC Vaults are anchored directly on the BTC base layer and enable external applications to verify that BTC collateral remains locked in place while enforcing predefined collateralization conditions. This vault architecture utilizes cryptographic mechanisms to execute rules, such as unlocking funds or triggering a liquidation event, rather than relying on discretionary control. By combining Babylon’s vault architecture with Ledger’s secure signing infrastructure, BTCVault workflows can connect with the hardware security that many BTC holders already rely on for self-custody. As part of the broader rollout, Ledger devices will also support Babylon’s native asset, BABY, on Ledger devices. A Familiar Pattern Emerges In Bitcoin’s Orderbook Data As noted by Crypto analyst Ardi, the latest order book data is showing a pattern that has appeared at key moments in the market before. Currently, asks on Bitcoin have climbed to a two-month high, with roughly $1.57 billion in sell-side liquidity stacked above the current price compared with about $1.125 billion in bids below. This shift indicates around 40% more supply than demand within 5% of the market price. Related Reading: No Rebound For Bitcoin Yet — Short-Term BTC Holders Continue Holding At A Loss Ardi pointed out that the last time the asks reached a similar high level was during the retest that followed the $98,000 fakeout in January. In that case, BTC briefly broke above the fakeout range, price re-entered it, and then retested the level while the sell-side liquidity accumulated heavily above the retest price. Now, the BTC market structure appears to be retesting after the $72,000 fakeout, with orderbook data showing a similar signature. In this setup, bids below the price act as a support cushion, while asks above the price form a resistance wall. When Asks liquidity spikes to multi-month highs during a retest, it suggests that participants are using price rebounds as opportunities to sell into strength. However, Ardi cautions that orderbook liquidity can be removed at any time, and the recurring pattern of elevated asks during post-fakeout retests has shown a specific track record on this chart. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes is still structurally bullish on Bitcoin. He just does not think now is the moment to buy. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast on March 10, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO said he would stay patient until a more familiar macro catalyst arrives: central bank liquidity. In Hayes’ telling, a prolonged Iran war and the credit stress that could follow from AI-driven economic disruption may ultimately force the Federal Reserve back into money printing, and that, rather than the conflict itself, is the signal he is waiting for. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said near the end of the interview. “I think that the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine and that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.” That distinction mattered throughout the conversation. Hayes pushed back on the idea that war is automatically bullish for Bitcoin, arguing that the real transmission mechanism is liquidity expansion. “If you’re saying, ‘Okay, war is good for Bitcoin,’ what you’re really saying is war means money printing. Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “So wait for the money printing. Don’t try to time it because you could get it wrong.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Bets Surge—Will Bears Get Squeezed? Arthur Hayes Sees More Bitcoin Pain Ahead The argument fits a broader framework Hayes laid out across the interview: Bitcoin is less a clean debasement trade than a “liquidity alarm,” one that is already reacting to tightening conditions, credit stress and a lack of fresh dollar creation. He tied that view to the rise of AI, which he said could accelerate white-collar job losses, pressure private credit and banking exposures, and force markets to price in a much sharper economic break than many currently expect. “I think it’s going to happen faster than people think just because of the exponential nature of how fast AI is improving,” Hayes said. “It only takes 10 to 20% [job displacement]. And then the leverage in the banking system will do the rest. At some point the market goes, ‘Oh, this is worth zero.’” In that scenario, he said, the market’s recognition of the problem could come well before the full economic damage is visible in the data. Regional banks, private credit and broader financial equities could reprice violently, with deposit flight and emergency Fed support following close behind. That is the moment Hayes sees as far more constructive for Bitcoin than the current backdrop. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stabilizes, But Glassnode Warns Spot Demand Is Still Weak Still, his near-term caution did not extend to Bitcoin’s long-run role. Hayes described himself as “structurally very very long” crypto and argued that the case for non-state money is stronger now than it was at Bitcoin’s launch. He also warned against shaping the industry around institutional preferences, saying crypto should not reduce itself to a more complicated version of traditional finance. “Bitcoin got from zero to whatever $66,000 whatever the price is today with no government support, unclear regulations, hostile banking infrastructure and regulators,” Hayes said. “So why are we bending over backwards to try to gain acceptance from these folks who don’t have our best interest at heart?” He was equally dismissive of conspiracy-driven explanations for weak market performance, including claims that market makers are deliberately suppressing Bitcoin’s price. More often, he said, losses come down to poor positioning, bad timing or leverage used by traders who are not equipped for crypto’s pace. For investors frustrated that Bitcoin has not delivered instant life-changing returns, Hayes’ answer was blunt: adjust expectations. “The market’s job is not to make you money. The market’s job is to take your money,” he said, arguing that long-term compounding still matters far more than trying to force a six-month windfall. At press time, BTC traded at $69,538. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has provided insights into what to expect from the Bitcoin price after it dropped below $70,000 over the weekend. This comes as the leading crypto continues to face pressure due to the U.S.-Iran war and volatile oil prices.  What To Expect From The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Doctor Profit said that he expects the Bitcoin price to move sideways between $57,000 and $87,000. The analyst noted that this sideways price action is not bullish but a preparation for what is coming in the next few months for the leading crypto. He predicts that BTC could drop to between $50,000 and $44,000 in the coming months.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Repeating 2022 Playbook That Triggered Crash To $17,500 Doctor Profit also noted that the Bitcoin price is mirroring the 2022 price action, when BTC fell 52% from its all-time high (ATH) before rising 44% from its low, then falling again. As such, the leading crypto is expected to follow the same fractal and rally to the upside in the coming months, then drop below $60,000.  The analyst said that market psychology supports a relief bounce, as the fear and greed index is currently at an extreme level of fear. As such, the Bitcoin price could move in the opposite direction, with many expecting a decline. Doctor Profit added that before the next leg down, the market needs to create additional liquidity in the downside and take the liquidity that was built to the upside.  The Bitcoin price, however, continues to face huge resistance at the $70,000 level, negating any sustained rally. BTC also faces pressure amid the Iran war, which continues to make oil prices volatile. The leading crypto had climbed to as high as $71,000 yesterday but sharply dropped below $70,000 following reports that Iran was moving to deploy Naval mines at the Strait of Hormuz.  Another Local Bottom Could Form Between $57,000 and $60,000 Doctor Profit said he considers $57,000 to $60,000 the local bottom but not the macro bottom, and expects this area to be tested multiple times. The analyst described this range as where it makes sense to buy. He also believes that there is no reason to sell at the moment because upside potential remains.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be Shrinking, But Are We Watching History Repeating Itself? Doctor Profit said that the largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower between the $50,000 level and into the low $40,000. This is where the analyst plans to re-enter the market with “serious size” ahead of the next bull cycle. This is also the area he expects the Bitcoin price to form a macro bottom.  The analyst expects the Bitcoin price to drop to the $50,000 to $40,000 range between September and October later this year. In the meantime, he predicts that BTC will continue to see a “long and boring” sideways price action.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is holding up near the upper $60Ks–$70K region despite a sharp macro shock, showing relative resilience versus equities and other risk assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Iran War Jitters Ease and Volatility Cools Bitcoin Is Resilient Enough Bitcoin appears to have passed the first stress test of the Iran shock and its aftermath. As we covered yesterday, Bitcoin snapped back above $70,000 after Iran war jitters eased, oil backed off its spike, and derivatives stress started to cool, turning a brutal liquidation into a fast‑acting relief rally. Since then, BTC has absorbed another wave of macro nerves, briefly sliding below $63,000 on the latest risk‑off flush before clawing its way back into the high‑$60,000s/low‑$70,000s range. QCP Capital’s March 11 “Market Colour” note leans into that idea, arguing that Bitcoin has shown “notable resilience following the latest geopolitical shock”. A Tale Of Caution However, despite the recovery being encouraging, QCP’s Market Colour note also suggests that the price actions “looks more like stabilization than a full return to risk-on positioning”. This caution is reflected by the options markets. Implied volatility has cooled from the extreme spike after the last sell‑off and now sits in the mid‑50s, but 25‑delta risk reversals remain negative, showing traders still pay a premium for short‑dated downside puts versus upside calls. Spot BTC is holding up, but options desks don’t yet believe in an explosive upside; they are still hedging against another leg lower, in line with QCP’s observation that downside protection remains in demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin Robbery: French Couple Held Hostage As Fake Cops Steal €900K in BTC “Stagflation” Risk For Bitcoin QCP’s reading of BTC’s recent activity frames it in “stagflationary shock”. Stagflation is the worst possible macro mix for traders: growth is stalling, inflation is still hot, and the Fed can’t easily save risk assets without risking even more inflations. Since tensions escalated in the Middle East and oil ripped toward the $120 area, global markets have been trading a stagflation narrative: softer stocks, higher yields, and an inflation shock driven by energy rather than growth. As we recently highlighted, macro analyst Alex Krüger argues that the Iran‑driven oil shock of 2026 looks more transitory than the 2022 Russia shock, with futures pricing still suggesting markets expect supply chains to heal rather than a prolonged energy crunch that would force the Fed into panic hikes What Traders Should Look For Caught between its “digital gold” narrative and its behaviour as a high‑beta macro asset, bitcoin cannot amount to a clean safe‑haven victory lap just yet. Instead, the tape and the options surface are sending a more nuanced message: spot is resilient, but big players are still paying for downside protection and treating every bounce as a potential fade if the macro data breaks the wrong way. For traders, the setup is binary around the incoming CPI and the energy tape. A benign inflation print and calmer oil could finally flip this from “stagflation scare” to “soft‑landing hope”. A hotter‑than‑expected CPI, by contrast, would validate the stagflation narrative, reward those who stayed hedged, and reopen the door to a deeper retest of the mid‑$60,000s before any attempt at new highs.   BTC’s price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting resistance levels as its price recovers the $71,000 mark. However, an analyst has warned that the bear market is expected to continue and that the latest bounce could be short-lived. Related Reading: Dogecoin Risks More Pain As Price Retests Critical Support – Analyst Warns Of 37% Breakdown Bitcoin Eyes Reclaim Of Former All-Time High Resistance On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged 7.5% from the Sunday lows toward the $71,000 area, retesting this key level for the second time in a week before momentarily retracing toward the $69,000 level. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $63,000-$71,000 price range over the past month, briefly surging above the upper boundary during last week’s market bounce. However, BTC’s price has failed to hold its multiple breakout attempts amid the market volatility. In a Monday analysis, market watcher Rekt Capital observed that Bitcoin is interacting with two key levels that form “an important overhead resistance”: the 2021 and 2024 all-time highs (ATHs) at $69,000 and $71,300, respectively. As the analyst explained, these levels turned into resistance in the monthly timeframe after the flagship cryptocurrency closed February at $66,970. Since then, BTC has repeatedly tested these key levels from below in the daily timeframe but has failed to reclaim them. Instead, it has produced upside wicks above $69,000 and $71,300, signaling that the former ATHs are acting as rejection levels in shorter timeframes and could become key resistance if it monthly closes below them. “For Bitcoin to begin shifting this structure, price would need to Monthly Close above $69,000 by the end of March to position itself for a reclaim of the 2021 All Time High as support,” the analyst asserted. “Similarly, the 2024 All Time High at $71,300 would likely require multiple Monthly Closes above the level in order to properly establish a reclaim process,” he added. BTC Bounce To Be Short-Lived? While the former ATHs risk turning into resistance, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin is currently finding crucial support at the 50-month Moving Average (MA), around the $64,000-$65,000 area. Historically, the flagship crypto has initially reacted from this level in bear markets, but eventually loses it as support. The recent bounce from the 50-month MA is enabling BTC to test the 2021 and 2024 ATHs as resistance “for the time being.” However, once the breakdown occurs, the level usually becomes a new resistance before further downside continuation follows. Now, “Bitcoin is effectively sandwiched between two key reactive zones,” he affirmed, which could lead to short-term relief before the mid-term downside continues. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Traders Rise in Arms as Bitcoin Hits 7-Day Low And Oil Soars The analyst also observed that BTC appears to be only halfway through the bear market, leaving the door open for further downside. In an X post, he noted that BTC’s shortest bear market lasted around 365 days, while it is currently just over 150 days into the current one. Other analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency could follow the 2022 cycle playbook. At the time, the price significantly retraced from the cycle peak, consolidated for months, and then had a final bull trap before its second major correction wave toward the market bottom. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $71,307, a 3% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com