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Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate has slipped below gold’s for the second time in its history, according to Fidelity Digital Assets, marking an unusual moment for an asset long defined by its outsized long-term returns. For markets, the signal is not just about relative performance against gold, but about what a slower growth profile may say about Bitcoin’s current market cycle. In a new Chart Chatter segment posted on X, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has been trending lower over time as the asset’s price has risen. That dynamic, he argued, has now produced a rare crossover. “What we are seeing now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for just the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We have now seen three straight months to start the year of CAGR below Gold’s.” What This Means For Bitcoin That is the key statistic in Fidelity’s framing. Bitcoin has spent most of its history comfortably ahead of gold on a five-year compounded basis, which made the January break notable on its own. The fact that it has now persisted for three consecutive months gives the move more weight, especially coming at a time Fidelity explicitly describes as a bear market. Related Reading: This Week Could Be The Most Volatile For Bitcoin In 2026, Top Expert Warns Wainwright tied the last comparable episode to the end of the previous cycle. “Back in 2022, we saw one such month of this occurring in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was bottoming out in the bear market around $15,000,” he said. “We are now once again in a bear market and below that CAGR for a longer stretch this time of three months.” In Fidelity’s telling, the drop below gold is rare, but it has also happened before during a moment of acute market weakness. The difference this time is duration. One month in late 2022 could be dismissed as a brief distortion near a cycle low. Three straight months in early 2026 suggests a more sustained compression in Bitcoin’s long-term return profile. At the same time, Fidelity did not frame the crossover as evidence that Bitcoin has lost its defining edge altogether. Wainwright was careful to stress the historical balance. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above Gold’s CAGR for the majority of its history,” he said. “So this is truly a unique instance and occurrence in Bitcoin, where it is now below the CAGR of Gold.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Picks Up Again, But $79,962 Remains The Key Resistance: On-Chain Data Gold’s side of the comparison is important too. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, then climbed to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026. That translates into a gain of about 67.1% over the past year and roughly 132.4% over two years — a surge that helps explain why Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has now slipped below gold’s. For now, the takeaway is straightforward: Bitcoin still has the stronger long-run record against gold across most of its history, but early 2026 has produced a rare exception. Whether that proves to be another late-bear-market anomaly or an early sign of a more mature, slower-growth Bitcoin is the question Fidelity has now put squarely in front of the market. At press time, BTC traded at $74,015. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have responded to the latest price rally by participating in profit realization. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Shown A Realized Profit Spike In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Realized Profit for the Bitcoin short-term holders. The Realized Profit here refers to an indicator that measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of profit being harvested by BTC investors through their transactions. The metric works by going through the transfer history of each coin being moved on the network to see what price it was transacted at prior to this. If the previous selling price was less than the latest spot price for any token, then that particular coin’s current transaction is leading to the realization of some net gain. Related Reading: Cardano Chop Nearing End? Here’s The Key Resistance To Watch The exact degree of profit involved in the move is naturally equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Profit adds up this difference for all profitable moves on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Profit of only a segment of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This group includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The STHs are generally considered to represent the fickle-minded side of the market, with its members tending to show some reaction whenever market volatility emerges. During the last few days, Bitcoin has seen a recovery surge beyond the $74,000 level and it would appear that the STHs have reacted to it as well. As displayed in the above graph, the 12-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin STH Realized Profit spiked to a value of $18.4 million per hour alongside the price rally. Since the profit-taking spree has arrived, the cryptocurrency’s surge has stalled. “Consistent with the pattern observed over February, where short-term holders continue to exhaust each rally at the +$70k level, absorbing momentum before any breakout can develop,” explained Glassnode. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can overcome the profit realization pressure from the STHs this time around or if the rally’s fate will be similar to other recent attempts at recovery. Related Reading: Dogecoin Surges 6% As Whales Scoop Up 470 Million DOGE In some other news, the crypto Fear & Greed Index has just returned to the fear territory, breaking a long streak of extreme fear in the market. The uplift in sentiment suggests that the price rally has renewed some degree of optimism among traders, although with the index still at a value of 28, the market mood remains quite bearish. BTC Price Bitcoin broke above $75,000 during the price surge, but it has since returned to $74,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering above the recently breached $74,000 resistance, positioning to reclaim price levels not seen since the fourth quarter of last year. However, this week’s activity is set to be turbulent, with market expert Virtual Bacon predicting it could be the “most volatile week in Bitcoin all year.” Bear Market Prevails In a report shared on social media platform X, Virtual Bacon noted that, although the current Bitcoin price uptrend is optimistic, significant challenges remain.  The critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $93,000, while the 50-week SMA is around $98,000. The last lower high resistance is pegged at $94,000, creating a confluence of resistance in the $93,000 to $98,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Simply said, there is a 15% downside risk to support levels in the low $60,000 zone, against a 30% upside potential to resistance. Virtual Bacon emphasized that the chances of a rejection back into the previous range outweigh the possibility of a full breakout into a bull market.  “This isn’t me being bearish,” he stated, emphasizing that the analysis is grounded in numerical realities. “We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above the $94,000 to $98,000 resistance.” Market Volatility Expected This Week  Virtual Bacon’s concern regarding the expected volatility this week is attributed to several volatility catalysts. The first is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place from March 18-19.  There is a 99.1% likelihood of no interest rate cuts. However, the expert believes that any comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—particularly concerning hawkish stances influenced by oil-driven inflation—could trigger a hard market sell-off. Furthermore, the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day enhances the potential for dramatic market movements. Current options data indicates heavy open interest clustered around the $74,000 to $75,000 range, suggesting that prices may stay constrained near this level until Friday’s expiry.  Virtual Bacon noted that, if the Bitcoin price moves above $75,000, it could surge toward $80,000. However, if it drops below $70,000, it may amplify the downward trend. The ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding oil prices could further complicate market conditions. The expert contended that if oil prices approach $120, combined with FOMC and quadruple witching events, the market could experience significant instability. Two Scenarios For Bitcoin In the expert’s view, there are two main scenarios to consider by the end of the week. The first, a potential breakout, would see Bitcoin hold above the $75,000 mark through Friday’s expected volatility.  He said that this could facilitate a move toward $80,000 and set the stage for renewed bullish sentiment as the market looks for recovery toward the critical resistance levels of $94,000 to $98,000 in the second quarter of the year. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 The second scenario involves a rejection at the $75,000 resistance level, leading to a post-expiry drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range.  Virtual Bacon concludes that if such a decline occurs, the S&P 500 could break below its 200-day SMA, and oil prices could escalate, pushing Bitcoin back into prolonged bear market conditions, with scenarios suggesting prices could fall as low as $58,000 or even $43,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite a recent resurgence in prices, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are not expected to achieve new all-time highs this year, according to analysts at Citigroup.  The company significantly revised its forecasts for both cryptocurrencies on Tuesday, reflecting concerns about the slow pace of legislative progress in the United States, which limits the potential for regulatory catalysts that could drive increased demand from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Targets Revised Downward In their latest update, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum’s forecast was reduced from $4,304 to $3,175.  This suggests that, based on current trade prices, Bitcoin is predicted to increase by nearly 50% in the remaining months of the year from $74,360. Ethereum, on the other hand, would see a nearly 62% increase in price from its present level of $2,314 per token over the course of the year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Citi strategist Alex Saunders emphasized that while regulatory catalysts are essential for fostering greater adoption and inflows into the market, the opportunity for significant US legislative action this year is diminishing. The report further highlights that, under a recessionary economic climate, Bitcoin could see its price dip to as low as $58,000, while Ethereum might fall to around $1,198.  Conversely, in a bullish scenario driven by heightened demand from end investors, Bitcoin’s price could reach $165,000, with Ethereum potentially climbing to $4,488. Tight Timeline For Crypto Legislation Progress The upcoming mid-term elections in November further complicate the legislative landscape for crypto-focused regulation. Should Democrats gain additional seats in Congress, the chances of passing the crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) could diminish. For the bill to advance, support from 7 Senate Democrats is required.  Citigroup analysts suggest that Bitcoin is likely to trade within a range while awaiting developments in the legislative arena, with $70,000 acting as a significant price point as the US election approaches. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 Earlier on Tuesday, Bitcoinist reported that Alex Thorn from the research team at Galaxy Digital pointed out that time is of the essence. He cautioned that if progress is not made this month, the likelihood of passing the CLARITY Act this year will become “extremely low.” While negotiations in Washington D.C focus on resolving the stablecoin rewards issue, Thorn highlighted that additional challenges could emerge. These challenges may include discussions regarding decentralized finance (DeFi), investor protections, and broader ethical considerations in the digital asset sector.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A single on-chain indicator has quietly called every major Bitcoin cycle bottom for the past decade, and it is now approaching that important level once again.  The setup comes from a monthly Bitcoin chart paired with the NUPL indicator, which tracks whether the average holder is sitting on unrealized profit or loss. In each of the last three major bear market lows, the indicator fell into the same area and touched a rising trendline. Nailing The Bitcoin Bottom Bitcoin’s latest break above $70,000 and into the mid-$70,000s has seen a bullish mood slowly returning. The fear and greed index has improved, but one question is still unresolved. Has the market already found its bottom, or is another washout still ahead? Interestingly, a long-term reading of the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, shows that the answer may lie in a pattern that has repeated across multiple market cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Far From Over? Analyst Shares How Painful Bear Markets Can Get NUPL is a clean sentiment gauge in Bitcoin analysis because it strips price action down to a question of whether holders, on average, are in profit or in pain. When the reading is high, the market is sitting on large unrealized gains. When it falls hard, those profits disappear, and losses dominate. The monthly candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin’s major cycle lows have consistently formed when NUPL resets into deep territory and tags a long-term ascending support line. That happened at the 2015 cycle bottom, repeated again at the 2018 bear market low, and showed up once more around the 2022 bottom. Each of those touches came at points when sentiment had already been crushed, and the Bitcoin price had shed most of its previous gains. The current NUPL reading of 22.9 represents a cryptocurrency that is still in modest aggregate profit, although it has shed a huge portion of the gains investors accumulated during the rally to the October 2025 peak above $126,000. Is The Bottom Already In? According to a crypto analyst that goes by the name CrypFlow on the social media platform X, the NUPL indicator is now approaching that level of Bitcoin bottoms again. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may still need another deeper reset in sentiment before the market reaches a true long-term washout.  Price may have already corrected a lot, but the indicator shows the emotional capitulation seen at prior bottoms may not be complete yet. The NUPL might continue to push downwards and reach the trendline before a bottom is confirmed.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bulls Have Won And This Is The Next Target Although no single indicator can call every bottom with perfect precision, the NUPL leaves room for the possibility that one final price crash could still come before the next full cycle expansion begins. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $74,220, up by 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has identified an eight-year convergence pattern on the Ethereum (ETH)-Bitcoin (BTC) trading pair chart, suggesting it could signal the long-awaited onset of an altcoin season. Although rumors of an altcoin season have circulated in the crypto space since before 2025, such a phase has yet to materialize, underscoring the persistent volatility in alternative cryptocurrencies throughout this bull market. Despite this prolonged delay, the analyst argues that the new convergence structure could become a catalyst that fuels an altcoin season even more powerful than the one observed in 2021.   Ethereum Chart Structure Signals Powerful Altcoin Season Crypto analyst CW has presented a new technical analysis suggesting a major altcoin season in this cycle. Supported by a multi-year chart structure, the analysis centers on the ETH/BTC trading pair and outlines a unique convergence pattern that has been developing since mid-2017.  Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Struggling Again, And Here’s What’s Behind It In his post on X, CW predicts that this convergence pattern could break during the current bull market cycle. The structure is visible on the weekly chart as a large descending triangle or wedge that started when ETH/BTC reached a peak around 0.16. Since that high, the pair has been compressing between a descending resistance line and a flat horizontal support level near the 0.020 zone.  Price action in the chart shows that ETH/BTC hit this peak during the 2021 bull market but failed to break the upper descending trendline of the converging pattern. Following this, the pair dropped back sharply and has continued to trend lower, now pressing into the very tip of the convergence pattern near the 0.029 level.  This suggests that ETH/BTC is approaching its final stage near the apex of the descending triangle pattern. The narrowing distance between the resistance and the support suggests the market could be at a critical juncture. CW suggests that a breakout from this point could end the trading pair’s eight-year compression within the convergence pattern. If this happens, it could signal a major shift in strength from BTC to ETH, and finally to the broader altcoin market, marking the potential onset of an altcoin season in 2026.   2026 Altcoin Season To Surpass 2021 Boom CW emphasized in his post that the altcoin season he anticipates in this bull cycle could exceed the strength of the 2021 cycle, mirroring the explosive scale of the 2017 cycle. He argued that many investors underestimate how powerful the 2017 bull run was, noting that it delivered wider, more aggressive gains across the altcoin market than the more selective rally in 2021.  Related Reading: Is The Altcoin Market Dead? Why These Cryptocurrencies Have Failed To Move In a previous analysis, CW shared a separate chart from CryptoQuant, adding further weight to his outlook for a 2026 altcoin season. The chart, which tracks the CEX volume ratio of non-BTC assets versus Bitcoin, excluding stablecoins, compares the current market setup to the 2021 altcoin season.  In both periods, altcoin trading activity on centralized exchanges was consistently higher than Bitcoin’s volume. However, CW notes that this activity has been running for much longer in 2026 than in 2021. He believes this sustained volume, coupled with a potential breakout from ETH/BTC’s current convergence pattern, strengthens the case of a powerful altcoin season in 2026. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Strategy has once again strengthened its aggressive digital asset vault, adding another billion-dollar allocation of Bitcoin to its growing treasury. The move reinforces the company’s long-standing belief that BTC represents the most reliable store of value in the digital era, positioning Strategy even further ahead as the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. What Strategy’s Latest Purchase Means For The Capital Market According to analyst Adam Livingston’s post on X, Bitcoin advocate and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor of Strategy (MSTR) has released its latest Form 8-K, confirming another massive expansion of its BTC standard. Meanwhile, the BTC bears are currently consolidating around the market. Related Reading: Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Now $3.35 Billion In The Red As Saylor Tells Investors To Wait This week, Strategy has intensified its aggressive accumulation strategy after revealing in a new filing that it raised more than $1.5 billion and used the capital to purchase 22,337 additional BTC. The latest acquisition pushes the company’s total BTC holding to approximately 761,068 BTC, reinforcing Strategy’s position as the largest corporate holder of the digital asset. Livingston argues that the balance sheet got heavier, the funding engine got smarter, and the anti-MSRT commentariat got hit with another folding chair made of SEC fillings. In the video shared by Livingston, the expert explains why Strategy’s latest move is viewed as overwhelmingly bullish for its long-term outlook. Furthermore, Livingston shared insight on how STRC is becoming a game-changer for common shareholders by offering a more efficient way for Strategy to raise capital and expand its BTC holdings without relying on traditional methods.  The analysis also addresses ongoing criticism around dilution, which many bearish takes fail to account for the underlying mathematics of Strategy’s model. The company is evolving into a powerful BTC accumulation vehicle that is systematically absorbing liquidity from the market and positioning itself as a dominant force in the digital asset space. Why Cross-Margining Is A Game-Changer For Hedge Funds The recent regulatory developments are marking a significant shift in how Bitcoin is being integrated into traditional finance. Crypto analyst MartyParty revealed that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), alongside institutions like the Options Clearing Corporation, has advanced rules via filings that allow cross-margining using BTC ETF holdings as collateral. Related Reading: US Bitcoin ETFs Hit 5-Day Inflow Streak For First Time In 2026 These changes allow hedge funds and institutional investors to use holdings in spot BTC ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC as collateral for equity options trading and other margin requirements. MartyParty highlighted that this development builds on earlier milestones, such as the approval of options BTC ETFs in 2024, including the ongoing expansion.  Together, these developments reduce friction for institutions, making it easier to integrate BTC into broader portfolios without liquidation or segregating assets. The broader implication is a maturing financial ecosystem where BTC is increasingly treated as a legitimate collateral asset in TradFi, boosting liquidity and efficiency for large players. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Merlijn revealed that Bitcoin has flashed the most powerful fractal in the markets right now. This comes amid BTC’s rally to a one-month high of $75,000 despite the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.  Bitcoin Flashes Most Powerful Fractal In Markets Right Now In an X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has formed the most powerful fractal in the market right now. He noted that gold had formed this structure in 1974, when it completed three waves, followed by a Fibonacci extension and a parabolic move. Now, BTC is forming an identical structure, with the third step forming.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bulls Have Won And This Is The Next Target The analyst further said that $62,000 is the last line before the Fibonacci extension opens, and that if BTC holds this level, then the $226,000 Fibonacci target unlocks. However, if the leading crypto loses this level, then the fractal gets one more low first. Merlijn added that BTC is pointing to the same outcome as gold, with a parabolic move on the horizon.  In another X post, the analyst provided a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, citing global liquidity. He noted that M2 is expanding again and that BTC has just entered the green accumulation zone. Merlijn explained that the last two times this combination appeared, BTC multiplied. He added that a hold above $74,000 will confirm this liquidity cycle, while a drop below $65,000 means one more compression before a rally to the upside.  Bitcoin rallied to $75,000 yesterday, signaling that the leading crypto was again seeing bullish momentum despite the U.S.-Iran conflict. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that BTC could rally above $80,000 in the short term.  Market Conditions Show Signs Of Stabilization And Market Recovery In a research report, the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode said that market conditions are showing signs of stabilization and gradual recovery. The spot CVD is said to have flipped decisively positive, which Glassnode noted reflects a return of aggressive buying pressure. Furthermore, the derivatives markets reflect rising but cautious engagement. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Base Case: What To Expect Before The Run-Up Above $100,000 Glassnode stated that futures open interest has edged higher as futures CVD surged, while funding payments moved further into negative territory, which points to persistent short positioning. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETFs are seeing renewed interest, although the on-chain analytics platform noted the total ETF trading volume has cooled slightly from prior elevated levels.  Lastly, Glassnode mentioned that on-chain activity remains relatively muted, with active addresses declining below their lower band and transfer volumes improving modestly but remaining subdued. Fee volume is said to have remained stable, which reflects steady but quiet network usage.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $74,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has again come under sharp criticism after former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson questioned its legitimacy. His remarks, shared in a March 13, 2026, post on X, reignited debate over whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency is fundamentally sound or structurally flawed. Bitcoin Under Fire: What Boris Johnson’s Statement Suggests In his post, Johnson reiterated long-standing doubts about Bitcoin, noting that reports of investor losses had strengthened his skepticism. His comments highlight concerns over the cryptocurrency’s structure and the potential risks for participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Exchanges Could Be In Trouble, Here’s Why This perspective aligns with his previous column, where he described individuals drawn in by promises of profit but ultimately losing significant sums. One example involved a retired person who invested £500 hoping to double it, only to spend years attempting withdrawals while paying fees, eventually losing about £20,000. Johnson suggests these cases illustrate that Bitcoin is not only volatile but also part of an ecosystem where investors may face exploitation. He also questioned Bitcoin’s intrinsic value, describing it as a digital construct without physical backing or cultural significance. Johnson raised concerns about the anonymity of its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, arguing that the lack of accountability adds risk. His remarks imply that Bitcoin’s reliance on investor interest, along with its decentralized and opaque origins, could expose participants to dynamics reminiscent of fraudulent financial models. Is Bitcoin A Ponzi Scheme? Facts Behind The Claim While Johnson suggests Bitcoin may resemble a Ponzi scheme, this comparison is misleading. A classic Ponzi relies on a central organizer who guarantees fixed returns and pays earlier investors with new participants’ funds. Bitcoin, by contrast, has no central operator, no promised returns, and no mechanism for redistributing incoming funds. Transactions are verified by a decentralized network rather than a controlling entity. Bitcoin’s value comes from open market demand and a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, not the entry of new participants. The network is transparent, participation is voluntary, and the protocol enforces scarcity and transaction rules. These factors ensure Bitcoin lacks the defining features of a Ponzi scheme, as emphasized by Michael Saylor, who points out that decentralization removes the key elements required for such fraud. Related Reading: Pundit Shares What The XRP Float Is Likely To Be For Global Settlement However, some of Johnson’s observations reflect market realities. Price momentum often depends on investor sentiment, adoption trends, and liquidity, which can superficially resemble Ponzi-like growth patterns, especially when scams or misleading schemes exploit the cryptocurrency ecosystem. High-profile losses contribute to the perception of risk, even though Bitcoin’s structure is fundamentally different: it does not promise returns, is not centrally controlled, and allows free buying, selling, and storing of coins. While Bitcoin carries risks typical of any volatile asset, its decentralized design, transparent operation, and capped supply separate it from a Ponzi scheme. Johnson’s remarks highlight legitimate concerns about risk perception but do not reflect the cryptocurrency’s underlying mechanics. Featured image created with Daily Express, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is showing early signs of renewed demand after a February stretch marked by heavy selling across both retail and institutional venues, even as the broader macro backdrop remains unsupportive for risk assets. On-chain and ETF flow data now point to a market that is stabilizing, though not yet fully out of danger. That shift is notable because it is unfolding against a difficult backdrop. As CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost put it, “Despite escalating tensions in Iran, Bitcoin continues to show a degree of resilience, particularly compared to equities and commodities, which are increasingly displaying toppish market structures. This is all the more notable given that the upcoming FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver any rate cuts.” The market, in other words, is improving in spite of macro rather than because of it. Darkfost noted that current probabilities imply roughly a 99% chance of no change from the Federal Reserve, leaving traders focused less on an immediate policy move and more on forward guidance, especially whether officials reopen the door to future hikes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Mid-$80,000s As Peter Brandt Flags ‘Horn’ Pattern Within that setup, exchange flow data has started to look better. According to Darkfost, the 30-day moving average volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has shifted back toward buyers after plunging deeply negative in mid-February. On Feb. 16, the metric stood at -$145 million on Binance and -$88 million on Coinbase, a sign that “both retail and institutional participants were largely aligned on the sell side.” Today, those averages have moved back into positive territory at around +$21 million and +$14 million. It is still a modest move. But compared with the conditions seen a month ago, it marks a clear change in tone. Why $79,962 Remains The Key Resistance For Bitcoin ETF flow data presented by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. tells a similar story, though with an important caveat. Over the past month, US spot bitcoin ETF flows swung from capitulation to recovery. From Feb. 15 to 24, the 7-day average net flow remained negative, bottoming at -1,883 BTC per day on Feb. 18. The reversal began on Feb. 25, when flows recovered to +2,305 BTC per day, before peaking at +3,387 BTC per day on March 2. The latest reading has cooled to +1,472 BTC per day, while total ETF holdings rose from 1,264,982 BTC to 1,291,618 BTC over the month, an increase of 26,636 BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Adler’s conclusion is constructive, but measured. “ETF flows recovered after February’s outflow, liquidity returned to positive territory — demand is back,” he wrote. “But until spot closes above the Realized Price (~$80K), the ETF cohort remains underwater, and this level will likely slow any rally.” That realized price now sits at $79,962, down slightly from $80,501 on Feb. 15. Even after bitcoin rebounded from $63,756 on Feb. 24 to $74,788, spot still trades $5,174, or 6.5%, below the aggregate ETF cohort’s cost basis. That leaves a large pocket of holders in unrealized loss and creates the risk that any move toward $80,000 draws out supply from investors looking to exit near breakeven. For now, both analysts are describing the same market: selling pressure has eased, buyer activity has returned, and institutional demand is no longer deteriorating. But confirmation still matters. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $74,063. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is playing out a price movement that has convinced many traders that October 2025 was the cycle peak. However, an interesting technical analysis shows that the market structure still does not look complete. Analyst CryptoAmsterdam made the case that Bitcoin is moving through a temporary correction inside a much larger phase. If that reading is correct, then Bitcoin could still stage a stronger rally than previous bull markets. Bitcoin May Still Be Inside An Unfinished Macro Bull Cycle Every major Bitcoin bull run has followed a recognizable five-stage sequence: a bull phase, a bear phase, accumulation below the macro range, a disbelief rally back into range, and finally a parabolic move into new all-time highs. This structure has held across the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, each one completing all five stages within roughly a four-year window. The current cycle has not. Related Reading: Pundit Shares What The XRP Float Is Likely To Be For Global Settlement According to CryptoAmsterdam’s analysis, Bitcoin reached a new peak without delivering the characteristic Stage 5 parabolic expansion. The chart comparisons he shared by plotting Bitcoin’s weekly price action against prior cycles show that the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles each measured approximately 1,456 to 1,477 days from trough to peak, with Stage 5 accounting for the most explosive price movement in each case. That phase, however, appears structurally absent in the current cycle. Price action has entered a corrective period since the peak at $126,000, but the cycle framework, by this reading, is still open. Price Chart Comparison. Source: @damskotrades On X The technical analysis also shows that price action can look weak on a shorter time frame and still remain bullish on a much larger one. That is where Bitcoin appears to be sitting now. The chart setup shows the recent correction is only a mini-cycle correction forming inside a broader macro continuation. This reading becomes more interesting when placed beside gold and Alphabet. In both examples, price also advanced within a larger macro cycle, paused for a mid-cycle correction, and then resumed higher once that smaller reset was complete.  According to CryptoAmsterdam, Bitcoin could now be doing something similar. If the reading is correct, then Bitcoin’s current price action is Stage 3 of a mini-cycle nested within the larger Stage 5 of that macrocycle. Therefore, the parabolic phase would still be ahead. Gold And Alphabet Inc. Source: @damskotrades On X Possibility Of A New Price High Another reason for a stronger rally is Bitcoin’s tendency to lag other assets. Over the last several years, Bitcoin has often printed macro structures similar to large-cap stocks, only with a delay that can stretch into hundreds of days. That makes Bitcoin look less like the leader of the cycle and more like the final participant. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Needs To Flow Through Ripple For XRP Price To Reach $3,700 Notably, technical analysis shows that gold has always bottomed well before Bitcoin did. For instance, Bitcoin moved higher during gold’s advance in the previous cycle in 2021 but underwent an entire mini-cycle correction while gold was trending straight up. Only when gold completed and topped its parabolic rally did Bitcoin take over into a vertical move, as shown in the chart below. Gold And BTC. Source: @damskotrades On X The next outlook now is that Bitcoin will continue its larger Stage 5 move like we saw with Gold and Google (Alphabet Inc.). The projected move is expected to push the Bitcoin price into macro cycle highs above $200,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor’s Strategy bought 22,337 Bitcoin for about $1.57 billion last week, using a funding mix led by its variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, STRC. The March 16 announcement showed the company paid an average of $70,194 per Bitcoin in the purchase. The buy lifted Strategy’s holdings to 761,068 Bitcoin, valued at about $56.5 billion at […]
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Bitcoin’s recovery is evolving into a broader market comeback as spot ETF inflows rebound, buyer activity returns after February’s sell-off, and fresh institutional accumulation helps push BTC back above $75,000. Bitcoin pushed above $75,000 in Asia trading hours, extending a rebound that's getting harder to dismiss as a simple bounce. Wall Street is putting fresh […]
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Bitcoin’s foray above $70,000, while encouraging, has not really done much to quell the expectations that this is only the start of the bear market. A number of analysts continue to warn investors that this might only be a temporary relief, with the real crash on the way. One of these analysts is HAMED_AZ, who took to the TradingView website to share why the Bitcoin price is still very bearish and why he expects a further crash before the cryptocurrency hits a bottom. Bitcoin Price Still Very Bearish According to HAMED, the Bitcoin price is still very bearish, despite the recent recovery, and this is due to the fact that it continues to trade inside a descending channel. This descending channel appeared on the daily timeframe, and since the price broke below the support at $79,000, it has completely eroded the bullish sentiment. Related Reading: Why The XRP Price Might Crash To $0.87 Before The Bear Market Ends Even now, the Bitcoin price has yet to retest the resistance that has now formed after this support level turned into resistance, showing weakness on the part of the bulls. Another important point that that the analyst makes is that this same zone is closely aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. All of these put together make it an important level to determine the next wave of action. If the cryptocurrency’s price continues to correct below the $79,000-$82,000 level, then it is possible that the price could experience another rejection that could send it crashing lower. This is because this level is an area that bears control. What To Expect In the case of a crash, then the crypto analyst suggests that there could be another 40% price crash. This would mean that the price would eventually fall below $50,000. The bottom for this move is placed somewhere around $47,000, which would mean that the Bitcoin price would be below 60% from all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Can Still Cross $1: Historical Cycle Performance Points To 750% Rally “If price reaches this zone and shows signs of rejection or weakening bullish momentum, the market may experience a bearish rejection, continuing the broader downtrend within the channel,” HAMED explained. “As long as price remains below the supply zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel, the dominant scenario favors a bearish continuation after a pullback into resistance.” On the flip side of this, there is still the possibility that the bulls will reclaim control of the cryptocurrency. This would happen if the Bitcoin price were to rally and break above $82,000. In this case, it would push to the upper boundary of the descending channel, leading to a potential trend reversal. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has briefly surpassed the critical resistance level of $74,000, generating renewed optimism among investors as key market indicators suggest the potential for a bottom and further recovery for the leading cryptocurrency.  A Potential Surge To $108,000 Market analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a significant development in a social media post on Monday, noting that Bitcoin’s funding rates have turned negative. This particular signal has historically foreshadowed substantial relief rallies over the past three years.  Martinez added that current market sentiment reflects a state of “peak fear,” which often indicates that the local bottom is close. Historical patterns reveal a consistent trajectory: when the majority are paying to short Bitcoin, it typically signifies a market rebound. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Dogecoin Price Will ‘Pump Hard’ Soon, Here’s Why The analyst has highlighted several past instances where this pattern played out effectively. For example, in December 2022, Bitcoin climbed from $17,800 to $24,800, a gain of 39%.  Similarly, from March 2023, the cryptocurrency surged from $20,000 to $30,700, marking a 53% increase in price. The trend continued with notable jumps in August 2023 and beyond.  Considering this pattern persists for the cryptocurrency, where Bitcoin has historically demonstrated an average gain of 46%, there is a possibility that the digital asset could rally back to approximately $108,000 for the first time since November of last year.  Bitcoin Whales Return In addition to funding rates, blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant has reported further bullish signs for Bitcoin. Recent analysis by the firm indicates that the ratio of BTC whales on exchanges has reached its highest point in six years.  An increase in this whale ratio often signifies a short-term bottom, while peaks in the ratio typically mark the commencement of an upward trend. Presently, the ratio of retail investors is at a six-year low, suggesting that larger players in the market are accumulating aggressively. On-chain indicators support the notion that Bitcoin may be poised for an upward movement, with the exchange whale ratio reinforcing the idea that the current price levels represent a bottom. Related Reading: Ripple Pushes XRP Global With Multi-Continent Expansion Drive In another observation on social media platform X (previously Twitter), market expert Jesus Martinez pointed out the presence of an unfilled Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between $80,000 and $84,000 for the leading cryptocurrency.  Nine out of ten CME gaps have been successfully closed since August 2025, sparking speculation that the cryptocurrency may experience an additional 13% increase should it promptly fill the gap at $84,000 in the short term.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading slightly above the $74,100 mark, with gains of nearly 4% and 8% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a strong increase above the $75,000 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $76,000. Bitcoin started a decent upward move above the $74,000 zone. The price is trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $71,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to rise if it clears the $75,500 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Extends Rally Bitcoin price remained supported and extended its increase above the $72,500 level. BTC climbed above the $73,200 and $74,000 resistance levels. The bulls were able to pump the price above $75,000. A high was formed at $75,998, and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $70,293 swing low to the $75,998 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $74,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $71,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $73,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $75,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $76,000 level. A close above the $76,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $76,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,500 level. The first major support is near the $73,200 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $70,293 swing low to the $75,998 high. The next support is now near the $72,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $74,500, followed by $73,200. Major Resistance Levels – $75,500 and $76,000.

A short message from Michael Saylor has once again stirred speculation that Strategy could be preparing another large Bitcoin purchase. Related Reading: WLFI Holders Face New 6-Month Lockup Rule To Gain Voting Power The company’s executive chairman posted a chart on X showing the firm’s Bitcoin accumulation history alongside the phrase “stretch the orange dots.” Market watchers quickly linked the message to the company’s well-known buying pattern, where similar posts have often appeared shortly before a new acquisition is announced. Familiar Signal Appears Again The chart Saylor shared tracks Strategy’s Bitcoin buying history, with each orange marker representing a completed purchase. The visual has become a recognizable signal among traders who follow the company’s moves in the market. Reports indicate the post arrived as Bitcoin traded around $74,100 after a modest rebound in the past day. Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has built its identity around accumulating Bitcoin. Over several years it has steadily added to its holdings, often funding the purchases through stock sales or other capital raises. Stretch the Orange Dots. pic.twitter.com/WMVPUxlIcx — Michael Saylor (@saylor) March 15, 2026 Observers say the timing of Saylor’s social media posts has developed a pattern. He frequently shares the chart on Sundays, and the company sometimes reveals a new purchase the following day through regulatory filings or announcements. The latest message did not include details about timing, size, or funding. Still, the familiar image was enough to set off discussion among investors who closely track the firm’s treasury strategy. Company Continues Expanding Bitcoin Treasury Strategy already holds the largest Bitcoin reserve among publicly traded companies. According to recent reporting, the firm recently acquired 22,337 Bitcoin for about $1.57 billion at an average price slightly above $70,000 per coin. That purchase added to a series of acquisitions over the past year as the company expanded its role as a major corporate buyer of the cryptocurrency. Earlier coverage shows the firm has repeatedly turned to capital markets to fund these buys, issuing common shares or preferred securities to raise cash. The proceeds are often directed toward additional Bitcoin purchases as part of its long-term treasury strategy. The approach has drawn both support and scrutiny. Supporters view the strategy as a bold bet on Bitcoin’s long-term value, while critics warn the company’s finances are closely tied to swings in the cryptocurrency market. Even so, Strategy has continued to add to its holdings during both rising and falling market conditions. Related Reading: XRP Faces Systematic Rigging, Major Holder Says Social Media Posts Closely Watched By Traders Saylor’s online messages have become a signal many traders watch closely. The executive often posts short phrases or charts referencing the company’s Bitcoin position. In past cases, such posts were followed by announcements confirming new purchases, reinforcing the idea that the messages hint at upcoming moves. Reports say the orange-dot chart has become the clearest visual reference for the company’s buying activity, marking each addition to its growing Bitcoin stockpile. Featured image from Blue Pacific Flavors, chart from TradingView

A potential US military strike on Iran’s main oil export terminal helped push Bitcoin to its highest price in over a month Monday, as traders poured money into crypto while pulling back from stocks. Related Reading: WLFI Holders Face New 6-Month Lockup Rule To Gain Voting Power Squeeze At The Top Reports show Bitcoin jumped from roughly $72,400 to $74,320 in under 30 minutes — a move sharp enough to wipe out $113 million in short positions within the hour. Based on data from CoinGlass, around 94,612 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, the total liquidations comes in at $385.48 million. Short sellers, who had bet on prices falling, were forced to buy back their positions as the price climbed, which pushed it even higher. By early afternoon, Bitcoin was trading near $73,900, up 2.7% on the day. War Fears, Oil Shocks, And A Crypto Bounce The backdrop was anything but calm. US President Donald Trump has been pushing allies — including Britain and Japan — to help form a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blocked. Reports indicate Trump is also weighing a military seizure of Kharg Island, the facility that handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. The threat rattled energy markets and sent oil prices climbing. But while stocks have shed trillions in value since the US-Iran conflict broke open on February 28, crypto moved the other way. The total digital asset market cap has grown by more than $310 billion since then. Bitcoin alone is up over 15% from its post-strike lows. Gold posted only modest gains over the same stretch. Traders point to a shift in where money goes when traditional markets wobble. As oil supply fears mount and inflation concerns build, some investors have been moving capital into assets like Bitcoin that sit outside the traditional financial system. Related Reading: XRP Faces Systematic Rigging, Major Holder Says ETF Inflows Add Fuel The rally isn’t just about war headlines. Continued cash flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have provided a steadier, quieter lift beneath the more dramatic price swings. Optimism around pending crypto legislation added to that mood heading into Monday’s market open. Still, the week ahead carries a lot of uncertainty. A pullback in geopolitical tension could ease the demand that helped drive the spike. And with leveraged buyers now holding positions near recent highs, a reversal could hit hard and fast — the same way Monday’s rally did on the way up. Featured image from Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times/Redux, chart from TradingView

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has marked an improvement after the latest price surge, but its value is still inside the extreme fear zone. Bitcoin Has Witnessed A Price Jump Over The Past Day Bitcoin ended last week on a mixed note, first observing a sharp surge near $74,000 on Friday, but then dropping back into the low $70,000 levels inside the same day. The weekend saw the asset consolidate, but it seems the new week has brought with it fresh bullish momentum as BTC has jumped once more. Related Reading: Bitcoin Foundation For A Mid-Term Breakout Remains Thin, Cost Basis Data Shows As the below chart shows, Bitcoin went further than the Friday jump this time, briefly hitting $74,400. The cryptocurrency has pulled back a bit since the high, but with a current value of $73,200, it remains more than 7% in the green on the weekly timeframe. BTC hasn’t been alone in the bullish push as the altcoins have also observed rallies. Ethereum, the second largest digital asset, has seen even better returns than Bitcoin, being up 13% on the week. Recent trader sentiment has been poor because of the extended bearish price action, but the new recovery has led to some improvement. BTC Fear & Greed Index Now At Edge Of Extreme Fear Territory The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index determines the trader mentality using the data of five factors: market cap dominance, trading volume, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it uses a numerical scale running from 0 to 100. All values above 53 on this scale correspond to a sentiment of greed, while those under 47 to one of fear. The values in between imply a net neutral market mentality. Besides these three core zones, there are also two extreme territories on the index called the extreme fear (25 and under) and extreme greed (above 75). All the recent bearish price action pushed the market down into one of these extreme zones, as the chart below shows: From the graph, it’s visible that since dropping down deep into the extreme fear zone in February, the Fear & Greed Index has steadily been improving this month. The latest Bitcoin recovery surge, in particular, has induced a notable jump in the indicator. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Requires STH Profitability Above 50%: Glassnode However, the trader sentiment still hasn’t improved enough to escape the extreme fear zone. Nonetheless, at a current value of 23, the index is now very close to transitioning into the normal fear region. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Every few years, a chart pattern resurfaces in the Bitcoin market that commands serious attention because it has repeated itself with near-mechanical consistency across every major US midterm election cycle since Bitcoin first started trading.  Bitcoin’s price history shows that these election-year corrections often happen near the end of major bull cycles before eventually giving way to another powerful expansion phase. Now, with the 2026 midterm cycle underway and Bitcoin already more than 50% off its all-time high, the coming months could include both a deeper correction and a much larger long-term rally. Bitcoin’s History With Mid-Term Election Years A recent chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel on the social media platform X examined how Bitcoin has behaved during past US midterm election years to create a recurring pattern of price movement. Particularly, Bitcoin posted steep losses in each of the three completed midterm election years on record. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Exchanges Could Be In Trouble, Here’s Why The first example appeared in 2014, when Bitcoin dropped by about 86% from its previous all-time high during the election year period. A similar development occurred in 2018, when the Bitcoin price action recorded another deep bear market, with Bitcoin falling about 84% from its peak. The pattern appeared again in 2022, when Bitcoin declined roughly 77% from its previous cycle high. Each of these corrections took place around the same stage of the four-year market cycle that coincided with US midterm elections. As shown in the chart below, each of the previous cycles had bottomed one or two months after the midterm elections. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X What The 2026 Cycle Could Mean For Bitcoin Bitcoin reached its most recent peak in October 2025, and the price action has since moved into a notable correction phase. Price data shows Bitcoin currently trading around $73,600, placing it roughly 42% below that all-time high. The lowest point of the decline so far came in February, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $63,000, which makes a correction of about 52% from the peak. If the historical election cycle pattern repeats in a similar fashion, then Bitcoin’s price could still see one final phase of downside before the beginning of the next long-term recovery phase. Related Reading: Pundit Shares What The XRP Float Is Likely To Be For Global Settlement The projection presented by analyst Crypto Patel places a potential bottom in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, possibly occurring between November 2026 and February 2027. The more consequential argument in Crypto Patel’s analysis is not the projected drawdown but what might follow the bottom. A review of price action that followed previous US midterm election years shows that Bitcoin recorded an average rally of about 54% before a minor pullback. That temporary pullback was later followed by a stronger rally that carried the price to new highs ahead of the next election cycle. Based on this historical sequence, the next major move after the 2026 midterm elections could eventually carry the Bitcoin price above $400,000 in the long term. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after firmly holding a major confluence support zone. The strong reaction from this level suggests that buyers have stepped in to absorb selling pressure. With the market beginning to stabilize, attention is now turning to whether this defense could mark the start of a broader bullish reversal. How Bitcoin Defends Major Confluence Zone Bitcoin has successfully defended a major confluence zone and is beginning to show early signs of recovery. According to Cryptorphic, after consolidating around the 200-week EMA and the Weekly Fair Value Gap between $70,000 and $76,000, market behavior appears to be shifting from absorption into the early stages of a potential trend reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Probes $73,000 Liquidity Pocket: Is The Next Leg Toward $80,000 Loading? From a key level perspective, the reclaimed support zone now sits between $70,500 and $73,900, where buyers have stepped in to stabilize the market. On the upside, resistance lies between $80,600 and $85,000, which represents the next major hurdle for bulls. However, the bullish outlook would be invalidated if Bitcoin records a weekly close back below the $68,000 level. Recent technical developments also support the improved structure. The latest weekly candle has formed a strong bullish setup right at the 200-week EMA, indicating that the earlier wave of aggressive sell-side pressure was absorbed by strong demand. Price has also reclaimed the $73,900 level, effectively flipping the former demand zone back into an active support area. The long lower wicks seen in previous weekly candles further reinforce this view. Rather than random noise, they point to consistent buying interest and institutional accumulation during the pullback. With selling pressure appearing to fade, the path of least resistance now seems tilted toward the upper boundaries of the previous range. BTC Breaks Out of Local Compression Charting the path ahead, Cryptorphic pointed out that Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of its immediate local compression phase. If the price can maintain strength above the $74,000 level, it would support the idea that a higher-timeframe base has already formed. Under that scenario, the next key objective for bulls would be a move toward $80,600, a level that previously served as a breakdown point. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Bottom In? MVRV Z-Score Says ‘Not Yet’ Should Bitcoin manage to push beyond the $85,000 mark, the outlook could shift even more decisively to the upside. A breakout above that resistance is expected to trigger a fresh impulsive move, potentially toward the $100,000 psychological milestone. From a broader perspective, the bias remains bullish. The recent correction has run its course, while the strong reaction at the 200-week EMA suggests that the market structure has been successfully defended. Thus, the environment continues to favor a long-term “buy the dip” strategy, with the market potentially rewarding those who accumulated during the retest of the $70,000 region. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades in the highs $73,000, outperforming both equities and gold in late‑quarter trading. A Late-Quarter Bitcoin Plot Twist Tensions around Iran and the Middle East are intensifying, yet BTC is rallying. According to a QCP Market Colour from today, we might be bracing for “a late-quarter plot twist” as not only BTC broke through key resistance and rose above the $74,000 area on Monday morning, but Ethereum (ETH) is following along, trading around $2.7k at the present moment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Mid-$80,000s As Peter Brandt Flags ‘Horn’ Pattern The Comeback Of The “Digital Gold”? The “digital gold” and “geopolitical hedge” narratives that had had been questioned earlier in the year seem to be making a strong comeback. The market insight from QCP suggests that the reason for this is that, as tensions around Iran do nothing but continue to rise, the on-chain users have embarked on a search for cross-border liquidity and capital mobility. This need explains that stablecoin liquidity is also surging. Last week, USDC supply set a fresh all‑time high above $81 billion, lifting overall stablecoin float and signaling fresh dollar liquidity coming on‑chain. On the derivatives side, QCP flags bitcoin’s spot price closing in on a big month‑end call strike, with about 8,000 contracts targeting higher prices. A decisive move above $75,000 dollars could spark a gamma‑driven buying rush, but $74.500 dollars is the first key barrier, with a pocket of short positions waiting to be liquidated just above that level. Key spot levels to watch this week are $70,000–$71,000 as major support and $75,000 as the line that would confirm a more sustained bullish trend if broken with volume. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Rockets Above $2,200 as Bulls Tighten Market Control Michael Saylor is betting on a similar bitcoin rebound as the one we saw back in the first phase of the Russia‑Ukraine conflict in 2022, only now without the same kind of systemic blow‑ups, in the light of Trump’s Clarity Act. Strategy, Saylor’s Bitcoin-maximalist corporation, has just announced that it acquired $1.57 billion worth of BTC. They now hodl around 761,068 BTC. Strategy has acquired 22,337 BTC for ~$1.57 billion at ~$70,194 per bitcoin. As of 3/15/2026, we hodl 761,068 $BTC acquired for ~$57.61 billion at ~$75,696 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/6hv6PjzOKQ — Michael Saylor (@saylor) March 16, 2026 What This Means For Traders As BTC increasingly trades again like “digital safe haven” beta, sensitive to war and macro headlines but supported by structural ETF and corporate demand, the trade‑off is clear: dips into the $70k–71k support zone may attract buyers, while a daily close above $75,000 could open the door to a momentum‑driven extension toward $80k. However, failure at resistance risks a sharp long‑liquidation could flush bitcoin back into the high‑$60ks. BTC’s price trends to the highs $73k on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continue to struggle, with BTC dropping to as low as $70,000 over the weekend. This comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, with no sign of a ceasefire happening anytime soon.  Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Struggle as Iran War Drags On Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain under pressure as the war in Iran enters its third week. Tensions escalated over the weekend with attacks on the U.S. embassy in Iraq, according to a Fortune report. The U.S. embassy had indicated that these attacks were carried out by Iran-aligned terrorist ‌militia groups.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Far From Over? Analyst Shares How Painful Bear Markets Can Get Notably, the attacks on the U.S. embassy came amid America’s airstrikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil terminal for the country. The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices notably fell following the U.S. strikes on the Island. The strikes sparked concerns that it could further drive oil prices higher, which is bearish for BTC and ETH.  Brent crude oil futures have already risen to as high as $106 today, according to TradingView data, in response to U.S. strikes on Kharg Island. Oil prices could also continue to rise as the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, remains effectively closed. About 20% of the global oil supply passes through the Strait, which is why its closure could spark a massive supply shock and lead to new highs.  Market analyst XWIN Research warned that Bitcoin could face significant outflows if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which would put pressure on not just BTC but the Ethereum price and other crypto assets. In an interview on ABC’s ‘This Week,’ U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that there are no guarantees that oil prices would fall in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are also facing pressure, with the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. There are also concerns that the FOMC could further delay in cutting rates due to the rising oil prices, which threaten to drive inflation higher.   Peter Brandt Predicts That A Rally May Be On The Cards Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin could see a relief rally even amid the U.S.-Iran war. In an X post, he shared an accompanying chart showing BTC could reach as high as $88,000. BTC and the Ethereum prices may already be seeing this relief rally, with these crypto assets up over 3% and 7%, respectively, today.  Related Reading: Ethereum Topples Bitcoin By 3x In Major Metric, But Can Price Still Reclaim $5,000? Crypto analyst Julio Moreno had earlier warned that the crypto market is still in a bear market despite any potential relief rallies for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Expert Benjamin Cowen echoed a similar sentiment, noting that BTC often spends more time going up than down. He added that when the flagship crypto goes down, it goes down very quickly, sets a low, and then trends up for a week before going lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Veteran trader Peter Brandt sparked a fresh round of chart debate around Bitcoin after posting a chart and writing, “The Banana is splitting. This is a Horn. Richard W. Schabacker wrote about this in his 1934 book.” For market participants used to Brandt’s shorthand, the message pointed to a possible shift in how he is reading BTC’s recent recovery structure. The chart Brandt shared shows Bitcoin on the daily timeframe rebounding from a sharp February washout into the low-$60,000s and climbing back toward the low-$70,000s. The posted candle data showed BTC closing at $72,813.62 on the day, with an intraday high of $73,210.95. Around that rebound, Brandt drew two widening curved boundaries, creating the outline of what he called a “horn.” ‘Banana/Horn’ Could Send Bitcoin Into Mid-$80Ks What makes the post puzzling is that “banana” is not a standard textbook label in the way flag, wedge or triangle are. In context, Brandt appears to be using it descriptively: the recovery arc looks rounded and elongated, and his comment that “the Banana is splitting” suggests that the smooth curve is beginning to open outward into a broader, more unstable formation. That is where the “horn” reference comes in. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Bottom In? MVRV Z-Score Says ‘Not Yet’ In classical chart language, a horn pattern is best understood as a broadening structure, one where the price path does not tighten but expands. Brandt’s reference to Richard W. Schabacker matters because Schabacker’s pre-war technical analysis work sits near the foundation of modern classical charting. By invoking a 1934 text, Brandt was framing the setup as old-school chart geometry rather than a crypto-native meme or a one-off joke. The catch is that Brandt himself did not present the pattern as settled. When one user replied, “Dude pick one. Horn or flag,” Brandt answered: “Could be either. Sorry you cannot handle flexibility.” That response is important. It suggests he is not yet making a hard categorical call between a more conventional continuation flag and a widening horn-type formation. Instead, he appears to be highlighting that the structure is in transition and that real-time pattern recognition is rarely as clean as retrospective textbook examples. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners’ AI Shift May Create New Overhang, Lekker Capital CIO Warns Read that way, the tweet is less a precise forecast than a warning about market character. A flag would usually imply a more orderly pause within trend. A horn, by contrast, implies widening swings and a less controlled advance. On Brandt’s chart, Bitcoin is pushing through the upper half of the formation, but the drawn boundaries flare outward as price moves to the right, which visually supports the idea that volatility could expand rather than compress. As for price target, Brandt did not annotate a measured move, so any projection has to be treated as approximate. The most reasonable read from the image is not a fixed breakout target but a path target along the horn itself. The upper curved boundary rises from around the mid-$70,000 area in mid-March toward roughly $83,000 to $88,000 by early April, while the lower boundary also trends sharply higher. If Bitcoin continues to track the upper side of the pattern, the chart appears to point toward the low- to mid-$80,000s as the next visible zone. At press time, BTC traded at $73,186. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a steady increase above the $72,000 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $73,000. Bitcoin started a decent upward move above the $72,000 zone. The price is trading above $71,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $71,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to rise if it clears the $73,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Regains Pace Bitcoin price remained elevated and extended its increase above the $70,500 level. BTC climbed above the $71,200 and $72,000 resistance levels. The bulls were able to pump the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $73,928 swing high to the $70,200 low. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $71,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $71,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $71,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $73,000 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $73,928 swing high to the $70,200 low. A close above the $73,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $73,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $72,000 level. The first major support is near the $71,500 level or the trend line zone. The next support is now near the $71,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $70,350 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $72,000, followed by $71,500. Major Resistance Levels – $73,000 and $74,000.

The crypto market’s fear gauge hit 15 — deep inside “Extreme Fear” territory — yet the biggest Bitcoin holders quietly moved in the opposite direction. Related Reading: Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Now $3.35 Billion In The Red As Saylor Tells Investors To Wait Whale Wallets Grow Their Share Of Total Bitcoin Supply According to crypto analytics platform Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC increased their collective share of total supply to 68% last week, up from 68% seven days prior. Whales were not buying blindly. Santiment disclosed the accumulation happened as Bitcoin held steady around $71,000 — a price level that large holders appear to have treated as an entry point worth acting on. While that shift may look small on paper, Santiment flagged it as a meaningful directional change after weeks of selling pressure. Bitcoin was trading around $71,470 at the time of the report, up about 6% over the prior week. Source: Santiment The timing stands out. Just over a week earlier, whale behavior told a very different story. Reports indicate that in the two days leading up to March 6, large wallet holders had offloaded 65% of the Bitcoin they accumulated between February 23 and March 3 — a mass exit that coincided with Bitcoin briefly touching $74,000 before pulling back. A Bottom Signal That Depends On What Retail Does Next Santiment says the renewed accumulation by large holders is encouraging, but the picture isn’t complete yet. What analysts are watching now is whether everyday investors — those with smaller wallets — start trimming their holdings. Data shows that historically, Bitcoin has tended to hit its floor not when big money walks away, but when ordinary buyers give up and sell. “Markets rarely reward the majority consensus immediately,” Santiment said in its weekly report. If retail participation stays elevated or keeps climbing, analysts say that could signal more downside ahead rather than a recovery. That caution is reinforced by on-chain analyst Willy Woo, who recently said Bitcoin remains “solidly in the middle of its bear market” when viewed through a long-range liquidity lens — a read that cuts against any near-term optimism. Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs Back To $73,000 As Short Squeeze Wipes Out $246M In Futures Bets ETF Inflows Offer A Counterpoint To Bearish Sentiment Not everything in the market is pointing down. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, pulling in roughly $767 million across the week. That kind of sustained institutional interest is harder to dismiss, and it adds a layer of complexity to what is otherwise a cloudy short-term outlook. Whether whale accumulation marks the start of a sustained recovery or just a brief pause in a longer slide will likely depend on how retail investors behave in the days ahead. Santiment says it wants to see small wallet holdings decline while large wallet positions continue rising — the classic pattern of coins moving from uncertain hands into more committed ones. For now, that shift has started. Whether it holds is another question. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price action may be showing its first signs of relief as a closely watched indicator tied to US demand has just changed direction. The Coinbase Premium Gap has moved back into positive territory following nearly 10 weeks of persistent negative readings, a stretch that coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from around $95,000 to below $65,000 in February. Coinbase Premium Turns Positive The Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase, the primary exchange for US-based institutional and retail investors, and its price on offshore platforms such as Binance, stayed in negative territory for the entirety of Bitcoin’s correction from $95,000 to the mid-$60,000 range.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs Back To $73,000 As Short Squeeze Wipes Out $246M In Futures Bets Whenever the Coinbase Premium Gap is negative, it usually means that traders in the United States are selling Bitcoin at a faster pace than buyers are stepping in. A positive gap indicates the opposite dynamic of demand from US investors pushing Coinbase prices higher relative to the price in the global market.  Notably, the metric entered a sustained negative zone on January 1 and held there through March 7, which is a period during which US spot demand was largely absent among crypto investors At its worst, the gap reached -175 on February 2, coinciding with the most severe phase of Bitcoin’s price crash. At the time of writing, the Coinbase Premium Gap has now turned positive, registering a reading of +25.4 according to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst @IT_TECH_PL. The reversal of the Coinbase Premium Gap from a low of -175 to a positive reading is the first step in a meaningful change in market structure.  Chart Image From X. Source: @IT_TECH_PL The current reading, while still early and modest relative to the depth of the prior negative regime, is the first consistent sign that American spot demand may be returning to Bitcoin. It shows that those same participants may be slowly accumulating Bitcoin again compared to the rest of the world. However, the broader structure of Bitcoin’s price action still leaves room for further downside before the formation of a definitive bottom. Bitcoin Could Still Drop To $50,000 Before Bottom Although a few on-chain signals are slowly turning constructive, a few analysts are cautious before declaring the broader correction over. A technical analysis from crypto analyst Ted Pillows points to a longer-term technical indicator that has always coincided with Bitcoin bottoms. According to his observation, the last two major bear-market lows occurred below the 300-week exponential moving average (300W EMA). In both cases, Bitcoin fell more than 15% beneath the indicator before the final bottom was established. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @TedPillows On X Related Reading: Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Now $3.35 Billion In The Red As Saylor Tells Investors To Wait Bitcoin’s 300-week EMA is currently around $57,100. Applying the same pattern would imply a possible move to around $50,000, which would represent a decline of roughly 15% below the indicator. Nonetheless, this projection does not guarantee that Bitcoin will revisit that level before forming a bottom. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price has not particularly impressed over the past two weeks, but it appears to have steadied its movement within a clear consolidation range. In its latest attempt to shine, the premier cryptocurrency faced fierce resistance around $74,000 on Friday, March 13.  Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the $74,000 resistance might not be the barrier it appears to be. According to a prominent crypto analyst on the social media platform X, the Bitcoin price seems to have a free runway to return to above the $80,000 mark. BTC Price Has Free Runway To $82,000: Analyst Market pundit Ali Martinez took to the X platform to share an on-chain insight into the Bitcoin price movement over the coming weeks, with a return to around $82,000 looking more likely with no obstacles. This on-chain observation is based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which shows the next relevant levels for BTC. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Loads Up $152M In ETH In Three Days — How Much More Will He Buy? The URPD metric shows how critical a price level is by tracking the volume of cryptocurrency purchased at a specific level. This is because the capacity for a Bitcoin price level to function as a support or resistance zone usually depends on the number of BTC investors who have their cost basis at the given level. Typically, price levels below the current spot value with substantial buying activity are often considered major support regions. Meanwhile, levels above the current price with significant investor cost bases usually function as major resistance areas. According to Martinez, the Bitcoin price has entered a low-resistance region, with barely any obstacles in its way until around $82,045. This puts into question the rejection recently faced around the $74,000 mark, which has insignificant investor activity per the UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric. A move to this next major on-chain resistance would mean an over 17% surge from the current price point, with an upward movement of that magnitude not seen so far this year. However, if the Bitcoin price doesn’t find the bullish momentum necessary to spur a rally toward the $82,000 mark, the next major support cushion sits at around $66,898. Ultimately, it appears that Bitcoin price might be looking to expand its consolidation range, with $82,000 as the potential upper boundary. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,820, reflecting a mere 0.5% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by more than 3% in the past seven days. Related Reading: Charles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s extended pullback from its all-time high has left traders in uncertainty, and many investors are unsure whether the worst of the decline has already passed.  One analyst known as Jelle on X is of the notion that the conversation may be missing an uncomfortable reality that Bitcoin bear markets often become far more painful than most participants expect. The price data, he argues, supports a more concerning interpretation of how Bitcoin’s current pullback will play out. Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs Back To $73,000 As Short Squeeze Wipes Out $246M In Futures Bets Current Bitcoin Decline Still Smaller Than Previous Bear Markets Crypto analyst Jelle issued an interesting warning to investors who may be underestimating the depth and duration of Bitcoin bear markets. In a post on X, Jelle noted that Bitcoin is currently down roughly 44% from its all-time high of $126,080, with the February local bottom around $63,000 registering a 53% decline from the peak. These sound severe on the surface. However, they are  relatively modest against the historical record. Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets pushed the asset much deeper below its peak. The market collapse following the 2017 rally eventually erased about 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the bear market that followed the 2021 cycle bottomed near a 77% decline. A review of the chart Jelle shared, which is shown below, illustrates just how consistent the cyclical structure has been. Since 2014, Bitcoin has oscillated through periods of sustained accumulation and declines. Each bull run lasts approximately 150 to 152 weeks, and each bear market persists for anywhere between 52 and 58 weeks. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X The current bear phase, by that measure, is well short of the duration at which prior cycles found their floors. Projecting the bear market phase from the October 2025 all-time high would put the current correction lasting until sometime around October 2026. “Unfortunately, I think there is more pain ahead for BTC,” Jelle said. The RSI Is Telling Investors To Wait The analyst also examined Bitcoin’s relative strength index indicator, which has repeatedly provided clues about when bear markets are nearing completion, in another post. Jelle observed that every previous bear market eventually bottomed when the weekly RSI dropped below the 37 level. Once the indicator crosses below that threshold, it often falls further before the Bitcoin price reaches its final low. Bitcoin has declined roughly 30% since the RSI first moved below that level in the current cycle. That decline is smaller than what occurred in earlier cycles, though not enough to stand out as a clear anomaly given the limited number of examples. More important, according to Jelle, is the pattern that forms near the end of a bear market. The final low usually appears when the RSI creates a higher low close to the level recorded during the previous bottom. That higher low can occur alongside either a lower price low or a higher price low. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X Related Reading: Ghana’s Crypto Push Begins As 11 Companies Enter SEC Sandbox When price forms a lower low but RSI prints a higher low, the price action produces a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. That signal has always preceded the transition from bear market conditions into the next accumulation phase. Until that structure becomes visible, patience is the best approach. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin recently pushed into a key liquidity pocket near the $73,000 level, briefly tapping overhead liquidity before encountering a sharp reaction to the downside. With structure still holding and buyers stepping in on dips, attention is now shifting to whether this positioning phase could set the stage for a stronger push toward the $80,000 region. Upper Liquidity Sweep Before Sharp Rejection Near $74,000 According to the latest MMT Heatmap update from Columbus, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge into the upper liquidity pocket during the overnight session. The price climbed aggressively to the $73,000 mark, testing the strength of overhead supply. However, this momentum was met with a sharp corrective reaction as it approached a substantial liquidity cluster situated near $74,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Clusters Become Clearer, And Traders Are Leaning Long On BTC This specific price action is characterised by a market that is probing for liquidity without establishing immediate value acceptance. Here, there is a sweep, followed by investors building positions; a standard market mechanism where high-interest zones are cleared out before the market gathers the necessary structure to sustain a more permanent move higher. Currently, Bitcoin remains in a rotation phase as it attempts to solidify a reclaim above its previous channel resistance. This transition period is vital for converting old resistance into support, providing the technical foundation required for the next leg of the bull cycle. The broader outlook remains cautiously optimistic, provided that buyer demand is resilient and does not fade anytime soon. As long as bids continue to rebuild aggressively on every minor dip, the underlying market structure maintains its bullish bias. Bitcoin Tests Historic Weekly Support–Resistance Zone Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows that the price is currently negotiating one of its strongest support and resistance zones, a level that dates back to the week of March 11, 2024. Market action around such historically significant areas often determines the next major directional move, as both buyers and sellers tend to defend their positions aggressively. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims Ground, Can Bulls Flip Market Momentum? Crypto analyst Christopher Inks notes that momentum indicators still leave plenty of room for further upside. Both the weekly RSI and the Stochastic RSI remain far from overheated territory, suggesting that Bitcoin could still extend its move higher and potentially push into the $80,000 region if bullish momentum continues to build. Christopher Inks has also emphasized throughout the year that a strong, impulsive weekly candle breaking and closing above the yearly pivot at $96,071.25 would be a major signal for the market. Such a move would confirm that the cycle low is already in place and could open the path for Bitcoin to advance toward a new all-time high. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com