Bitcoin headed into the Federal Reserve's rate decision this week after failing to cleanly reclaim $80,000, with the institutional bid that fueled its April recovery now visibly softening. Spot ETF flows have been volatile, the price is sitting below the on-chain levels that define whether recent buyers are profitable, and Jerome Powell's press conference was […]
The post Bitcoin’s next breakout will depend on whether investors treat $80K as relief, resistance, or the start of a new recovery appeared first on CryptoSlate.
After a shaky start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have recorded their strongest performance in months, signaling strong institutional demand despite the recent market volatility. Related Reading: XRP 2017 Breakout Replay? Analyst Drops Bold Target As Multi-Year Pattern Repeats Bitcoin Leads ETF Boom With $2B Inflows As the crypto market recovered from the start-of-year correction, US spot Bitcoin ETFs kicked off a new positive inflow streak, capping the second straight month of massive gains. The flagship crypto saw an 11.8% rise in April, climbing from the $68,000 mark to the $78,000-$79,000 resistance area for the first time since February, BTC’s strongest monthly gain in a year, according to CoinGlass data. Amid this performance, Bitcoin-based investment products recorded their strongest inflows in six months, with a nine-day streak between April 14 and April 24 totaling $2.1 billion. This marked the longest and largest inflows since the category’s $5.33 billion nine-day streak that ended in early October 2025. Nonetheless, this week’s market volatility, which recently pushed BTC’s price to a weekly low of $74,973, snapped Bitcoin ETFs from their daily and weekly positive spells, pulling nearly half a billion dollars from the funds in just three days. As reported by NewsBTC, the category saw $490 million in outflows between April 27 and April 29, its biggest negative net flows in three months. Despite the recent withdrawals, the funds posted $1.97 billion in April after a mild $14.76 recovery on Thursday, surpassing March’s $1.32 billion and recording their best performance of the year, the first two-month streak since Q4 2025. Notably, these inflows have offset outflows from January and February, with nearly $1.5 billion in net inflows Year-to-Date (YTD). ETH, XRP Funds See April Comeback Like Bitcoin, altcoin-based ETFs also saw a strong performance during the April market recovery, with Ethereum and XRP leading the charge. As ETH’s price printed its second green candle in 2026, its investment products logged their first positive performance of the year. SoSoValue data shows that the category posted $356 million in inflows in April, ending a six-month negative streak totaling $2.8 billion. Ethereum ETFs recorded a 10-day positive spell between April 9 and April 22, bringing in $633.5 million during this period. It’s worth noting that ETH funds remain in red despite the recent inflows, with about $413 million in net outflows during the first four months of 2026. XRP funds also rebounded in April, with inflows totaling $81.59 million. This marked a strong recovery from March’s performance, when the category saw the first red month since its November launch. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces ‘Most Critical Week In Months’ Amid $76,000 Retest – Should Investors Worry? Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the XRP-based products recorded their best daily streak of the year, seeing 14 days of positive net flows between April 10 and April 29. Following this performance, the funds have seen around $124 million in inflows during the first four months of the year, bringing their total cumulative inflows to $1.29 billion. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs continued their seven-month positive streak, posting $38.69 million in inflows last month and recording $251.8 million net inflows for 2026. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin treasury companies have shown an inflection recently, something that has turned out to be bullish in the past. Last Two Bitcoin Treasury Capitulation Inflections Led To Bullish Action In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about the latest trend in the buying participation of the Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Related Reading: Bitcoin Rejected At Key Cost Basis Zone—Is $68,000 The Next Support? A DAT is a company that holds a cryptocurrency on its balance sheet as a way to provide its investors with exposure to the asset’s price movements. The most popular DAT strategy involves Bitcoin, the digital asset ranked largest by market cap. The most prominent name in the space is Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has been a relentless buyer of the cryptocurrency even as it has gone through a bearish transition since Q4 2025. Unlike Strategy, though, the other DATs haven’t held the same amount of conviction in the asset. As the below chart shared by Edwards shows, the percentage of DAT firms participating in buying observed a decline as the bearish market shift occurred, with an especially sharp plunge coming in April. It’s also visible in the chart, however, that since the drop to extreme lows in April, the metric has seen a quick bounce. This could potentially suggest that the DATs are at an inflection point. The analyst has highlighted in the chart previous instances of this trend. “These inflections have been very bullish in the past,” noted Edwards. Though, while that has been true, the trend doesn’t have a large enough sample size yet. As such, it only remains to be seen whether things will work out similarly for Bitcoin or if the pattern will differ this time around. In some other news, the recent Bitcoin price recovery has been driven by futures demand, as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained in an X post. As displayed in the above graph, the total Bitcoin demand has been rising recently, but the individual components have differed in trend. Spot demand has actually been contracting, meaning that derivatives demand has been the component driving the surge in the total demand. Related Reading: Dogecoin Surges 11%: Is This Parallel Channel Resistance Next? The recovery rally back in January followed the same pattern before fizzling out. According to CryptoQuant, the same structure also appeared back in the 2022 bear market and preceded the next leg down for BTC. “It doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, but structurally, this is a bearish demand signal,” said the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin has rebounded during the past day as its price has approached the $78,000 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading below a key cost threshold that short-term holders paid to acquire it — a sign that many recent buyers are sitting on losses heading into one of the largest options expiry events of the month. Related Reading: 23 Billion+ XRP Already Quantum Safe, According To New Wallet Analysis Bitcoin: Bears Hold The Edge Going Into Expiry Glassnode data shows Bitcoin is currently priced under the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900, and also below the True Market Mean of $78,000. Support is seen further down, in the $65,000–$70,000 range. That backdrop sets a cautious tone as roughly 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts — worth $1.74 billion — are set to expire today on derivatives exchange Deribit. The put-call ratio for those contracts sits at 1.10, meaning more traders are betting on price declines than on gains. Bitcoin’s max pain price — the level where the greatest number of options expire worthless — is $76,000, slightly below where it was trading at press time around $77,200. Deribit has flagged the settlement as one to watch closely, with data showing a 95% probability that Bitcoin options expire above that $76,000 mark. Heavy volume is concentrated at the $75,500 and $77,000 strike prices. ???? May 1st Options Expiry Alert. At 08:00 UTC today, ~$2.14B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: ~$1.74B notional | Put/Call: 1.10 | Max Pain: $76,000$ETH: ~$394M notional | Put/Call: 0.95 | Max Pain: $2,325 BTC spot pinned right at max pain. ETH trading… pic.twitter.com/UC2GkTnBMb — Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 1, 2026 In the past 24 hours, the put-call ratio for Bitcoin trading activity climbed to 0.73, while overall volume dropped. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates unchanged contributed to the slowdown. Ethereum Sits Below Its Own Pain Point Ethereum is facing similar pressure. More than 175,000 ETH options worth $400 million are expiring on Deribit today, with a put-call ratio of 0.95. In the last 24 hours alone, put volume rose sharply past call volume, pushing that ratio to 1.17 — a sign traders are adjusting for potential downside. What makes Ethereum’s situation slightly different is where it’s trading relative to max pain. The ETH max pain price is $2,325, but the token was changing hands around $2,284 at the time of writing — already below that level. Its 24-hour range ran from $2,232 to $2,293. Trading volume fell 45% over the past day. Broader Pressures Weigh On Crypto Markets The options expiry is not happening in a vacuum. US PCE inflation came in at a three-year high of 3.5%, rattling broader markets and prompting profit-taking across crypto. Oil prices rose to $106 a barrel as the US maintained a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s offer to end the standoff, with reports of a possible escalation adding to market unease. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Together, those factors have kept buyers cautious. Crypto markets saw widespread selling after the inflation data dropped, and uncertainty around the geopolitical situation has not eased. Whether today’s options expiry adds to that pressure — or passes without incident — may depend on whether Bitcoin can hold above the $76,000 mark when contracts settle. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
A crypto analyst has shared more insights into the Bitcoin (BTC) price action using a rare Japanese chart pattern called the Renko Mari-Ashi. The chart shows that the Bitcoin price has formed a Double Bottom and could be on the verge of a major breakout. Additionally, it has highlighted the points where the Double Bottom was formed, revealing the area where BTC is likely to start rising again in this cycle. Bitcoin Double Bottom Formation On The Renko Mari-Ashi Chart Geometric, a pseudonymous market analyst on X, said on April 28 that the Renko Mari-Ashi chart is signaling another major bottom formation for Bitcoin. He described this chart as a special Japanese chart that focuses solely on a cryptocurrency’s price movement, not the timing of its actions. Related Reading: Here’s How The Ethereum Vs. Solana Rivalry Is Going He said that this chart was designed to filter out market noise and highlight major trends and reversals in a cryptocurrency. Moreover, unlike traditional candlestick charts, which create a new candle at each interval, the bricks on the Renko Mari-Ashi chart are formed only when the price moves by a specific amount, which can take minutes, hours, or days. Looking at the Bitcoin price action on this rare chart, Geometric tracks the cryptocurrency’s movements from 2018 to the present, highlighting every major bull run and bear market along the way. The chart shows that Bitcoin has now completed a second Double Bottom formation and could be gearing up for a major reversal. The first time a similar Double Bottom pattern appeared was around September 2024, a few weeks before BTC’s historic surge to the $100,000 psychological level. Prior to this, Bitcoin had formed a Double Top, setting the stage for its Double Bottom. Once that price floor was confirmed, BTC exploded above $100,000 in 2025, forming another Double Top pattern. Following the trajectory of the Renko Mari-Ashi chart blocks, Bitcoin crashed below $75,000 around May after hitting $100,000. This massive drop preceded the price reversal that led to the cryptocurrency’s historic all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Once this ultimate top was reached, BTC started its current bear market decline, which Geometric says has now led to the formation of a new Double Bottom, similar to the one that emerged in 2024. Where BTC Bottom Stands And When The Uptrend Begins The Renko Mari-Ashi officially places BTC’s current Double Bottom around the $60,000 to $65,000 range. The first bottom formed in February 2026 when BTC crashed down toward $60,000, while the second price floor emerged near $65,000 following a bullish fakeout. Related Reading: XRP Price At $25,000? The ‘Divine’ Prediction That Is Setting The Community On Fire With this Double Bottom now confirmed, Geometric suggests that BTC’s bear market may be over, and price action has returned to the green. He wrote on the chart that the Bitcoin price is now in a bullish breakout zone, signaling a potential strong rally ahead. If price action plays out as it did in 2024, BTC could be headed for another major bull run to new highs this cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the latest Bitcoin rejection came inside a zone containing some historically important cost basis levels. Bitcoin Could Find Support At -1 SD Of The STH Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about a key cost basis zone that Bitcoin retested recently. The region in question involves two major on-chain metrics: the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean. Related Reading: Dogecoin Surges 11%: Is This Parallel Channel Resistance Next? The first of these, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, measures the average acquisition price of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their Bitcoin during the past 155 days. Statistically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. Since the STHs represent the new entrants of the market with a relatively low holding time, they can be considered the weak side of the market. Due to their fickle nature, the STHs tend to be sensitive to retests of their cost basis. In bearish periods, this can show up as panic selling around their break-even mark, while in bullish phases they accumulate more at it. The other on-chain level of relevance here, the True Market Mean, tracks the cost basis of the active market participants. It aims to provide a break-even mark for the network as a whole. Currently, the True Market Mean is located at $78,000, while the STH Cost Basis at $79,000. Together, these two levels mark a zone that could act as resistance for the any rallies in this bearish environment. And indeed, BTC’s recent attempt at recovery hit the brakes around these levels. As Glassnode explains: This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum. With Bitcoin rejected from this zone, the next major level of interest could be a standard deviation (SD) of the STH Cost Basis. Below is a chart that maps some SDs of the metric for BTC. From the graph, it’s visible that after rejection at the STH Cost Basis, the next level is the -1 SD at $68,000. In the past, this level has often acted as a point of support. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will make another attempt at the resistance zone of the True Market Mean and the STH Cost Basis or if it will have to fall back to support. Related Reading: Bitcoin $90,000 Predictions Surge Across Social Media—Contrarian Signal? BTC’s earlier rally fizzling out is also visible through the lens of STH Realized Profit. As is visible in the below chart, the STHs ramped up their profit-taking as the BTC price marched up. BTC Price Bitcoin has fallen to the $76,400 mark since its pullback. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $76,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $76,750 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $75,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $77,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price remained supported above the $75,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $75,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $76,000 and $76,200 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. However, the bears are active near $76,750. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,750 level, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,000 level. A close above the $77,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $76,750 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,000 level. The first major support is near the $75,650 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,000, followed by $75,650. Major Resistance Levels – $76,750 and $77,000.
Top US officials have increasingly placed Bitcoin (BTC) at the center of national security discussions, and Representative Lance Gooden says the change is more than just political rhetoric. In comments reported Thursday, the Texas Republican argued that the largest cryptocurrency has become a “geopolitical weapon” being used—simultaneously, in his view—by multiple adversaries. Multi-Front Security Use Of Bitcoin Gooden’s remarks follow confirmation from Pentagon leadership. According to reporting by the TFTC agency, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told him that the Department of Defense is actively involved with Bitcoin in classified operations designed to counter what Hegseth described as “China’s digital authoritarianism.” Gooden quoted Hegseth directly, saying: “I am a long enthusiast of Bitcoin and crypto potential, and a lot of the things we are doing, enabling it or defeating it, are classified efforts that are ongoing inside our department, which do provide us a lot of leverage in a lot of different scenarios.” Related Reading: Hyperliquid Jumps Into The Betting Boom With New ‘Outcome Tokens’ For Real-World Events In recent Senate testimony, Admiral Samuel Paparo—commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command—described Bitcoin as having “incredible potential” as a tool with cybersecurity and wider strategic uses. Paparo told the Senate, “We have a node on the Bitcoin network right now. Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection.” Within that context, Gooden laid out what he sees as a multi-front national security landscape for Bitcoin. He argued that Iran is demanding Bitcoin as a toll for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. BPI Numbers Fuel Gooden’s Claim The Republican also claimed that North Korea-linked hackers are using Bitcoin in ransomware campaigns. And he said China is “believed to be stockpiling substantial holdings as part of its strategic reserve.” Gooden framed his conclusion plainly: “Over the past decade, Bitcoin has evolved from a fringe asset into a matter of national security.” The geopolitical angle is supported by estimates from advocacy and policy groups in the industry. According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), China holds approximately 194,000 BTC, while the United States holds approximately 328,000 BTC. Related Reading: A Stealth Force In Derivatives—Why Bitcoin Can’t Punch Past $80,000 Yet For Gooden, those figures underscore the shift he says is underway: Bitcoin is no longer treated as a speculative sideshow in finance committees. Instead, he described the market’s leading cryptocurrency as an instrument that can show up in armed services hearings—as an asset relevant to power projection, economic conflict, and reserve accumulation. As of this writing, BTC is trading at approximately $76,384, marking modest gains of 1% within the last 24 hours after probing the $75,000 support level on Wednesday. The key level to watch for the cryptocurrency is currently around $80,000 — a level that has been elusive for BTC since early February. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin was trading at $75,900 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision sent a chill through crypto markets, capping three straight days of withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that together erased more than $490 million. Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update Fidelity And BlackRock Lead The Exodus Fidelity’s FBTC took the heaviest hit, shedding $191 million over the period. BlackRock’s IBIT — the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets under management — wasn’t far behind, with close to $167 million flowing out. Ark Invest’s ARKB recorded another $73.3 million in withdrawals. The selling was spread across the week: Monday saw the worst single-day figure at $263 million, followed by $89.7 million on Tuesday, and $137.6 million on Wednesday — the day the Fed announced its decision. The outflows came right on the heels of a strong stretch. According to reports, Bitcoin ETFs had pulled in steady money for nine consecutive days before the streak snapped, with total inflows during that run reaching a little over $2 billion. Last week alone brought in almost $824 million. The reversal was sharp. Fed Holds Firm, Markets Respond The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the third meeting in a row. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave no hint of cuts ahead. No softer tone on inflation. No signal of easier financial conditions on the horizon. That message landed hard on risk assets, and Bitcoin felt it quickly. At the same time, rising tensions between the US and Iran added to the unease. Reports indicate that US President Donald Trump warned the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked if Iran does not stand down. Global markets were already on edge, and that kind of geopolitical pressure tends to push investors toward the exits. Meanwhile, fear has returned to the crypto market, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling back into the “Fear” zone as investors grow cautious amid macro uncertainty and continued Bitcoin ETF outflows. What Comes Next For Bitcoin Bitcoin had bounced back from a low near $74,000 earlier in the month, briefly pushing toward $80,000 before this week’s pullback. With ETF outflows continuing, that $75,000 level is again in focus as a potential support test. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Data shows Bitcoin dropped about 3% following the Fed’s announcement. Some traders still expect a recovery toward the $85,000–$88,000 range in May, though that outlook depends heavily on whether macro conditions hold steady. For now, the momentum that built over nine days of inflows has stalled. The question is whether it restarts — or fades further. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Morgan Stanley’s Amy Oldenburg said a future move by major banks to put Bitcoin on their balance sheets is “not totally out of the question,” pointing to regulatory progress while warning that capital rules and global supervisory alignment still matter. Speaking during a Bitcoin 2026 conference panel, Oldenburg was asked what it would take for a bank like Morgan Stanley, or another regulated financial institution, to make the leap from offering Bitcoin exposure to actually holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset. “Bitcoin on the balance sheet,” she said, pausing on the premise. “You know, I think if we continue to see the progress that we’ve made over the last 16 months or so in regulatory, that that’s something that you may see going forward. It’s not totally out of the question.” Morgan Stanley And Bitcoin? That answer is notable less because it signals an imminent move and more because it frames the idea as procedurally possible. For years, the bank balance sheet question has sat on the far end of institutional Bitcoin adoption: beyond ETFs, beyond custody, beyond client access, and into the realm of prudential capital, examiner expectations, accounting, liquidity planning and board-level risk appetite. Oldenburg’s caveat was that the constraint is not a single rule. She pointed first to SAB 121, the SEC accounting guidance that had made it more difficult for banks to custody crypto assets at scale before its rollback changed part of the equation. But she immediately widened the lens. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish “I think the other thing too is we were talking about SAB 121 rolling back on the capital treatment, but it’s not just that that holds us back,” she said. “It’s Fed guidance, it’s Basel guidance. When you’re a large G-sub bank, it’s not just one agency that you report to.” That is the core of the issue for a firm like Morgan Stanley. A global systemically important bank does not evaluate Bitcoin only through a market-risk lens. It has to satisfy multiple regulators, capital frameworks and jurisdictional expectations at once. Oldenburg said large banks have “many oversight groups” to attend to and need “a little bit more alignment across the board with some of those agencies.” The Backdrop The Basel point is especially important. The Basel Committee’s cryptoasset standard places the most conservative treatment on unbacked crypto assets such as Bitcoin, and industry advocates have argued that the 1,250% risk-weight treatment effectively makes direct bank balance-sheet exposure uneconomic. The Basel Committee said in February 2026 that it had expedited a targeted review of its prudential standard for banks’ cryptoasset exposures, with an update expected later in the year. The Bitcoin Policy Institute has been trying to push that debate into the US implementation process. In March, the group said it planned to review and comment on the Federal Reserve’s coming Basel proposal, arguing that the current treatment discourages banks from holding or servicing Bitcoin because of the punitive risk weight. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY The US side has also been moving, though not in a straight line toward bank-owned Bitcoin. In April 2025, the Federal Reserve withdrew earlier guidance tied to banks’ crypto-asset and dollar-token activities, saying the move would keep expectations aligned with evolving risks and support innovation in the banking system. The FDIC and OCC also moved away from prior-approval style frameworks for permissible crypto activity, while maintaining that banks still need sound risk management. More recently, US banking agencies clarified that eligible tokenized securities should generally receive the same capital treatment as their non-tokenized equivalents, describing the capital rule as technology neutral. That clarification does not solve Bitcoin’s balance-sheet treatment, because Bitcoin is not a tokenized version of a traditional security. But it does show regulators separating blockchain rails from asset risk, rather than treating every digital-asset exposure as the same category. That distinction helps explain Oldenburg’s answer. The path for a bank to hold Bitcoin is not simply “regulators become more pro-crypto.” The first point is Basel: if Bitcoin remains subject to the most punitive capital treatment, a G-SIB has little economic incentive to warehouse it as a treasury asset, even if client demand is clear. The second point is Federal Reserve supervision: even after recent rollbacks, large banks still need a coherent examiner framework that tells them how Bitcoin exposure will be judged across safety and soundness, liquidity, operational risk and capital planning. At press time, BTC traded at $1.3716. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A crypto analyst is sounding the alarm about Bitcoin (BTC), warning investors to sell their coins before the next price crash. According to the market expert, Bitcoin could be preparing for another major correction, but this time, it’s in the $40,000 range. Contrary to the widespread belief that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market, this analyst argues that the bear market is far from over and that it will end only after BTC hits its final cycle bottom. Analyst Warns Investors To Sell Bitcoin Now Orbion, a crypto market, has warned members of the Bitcoin community to consider exiting their positions immediately, predicting another major price crash ahead. He pointed to Bitcoin’s recent rally above $79,000, describing it as a bull trap that briefly attracted buyers before the price reversed back to previous lows as selling pressure increased. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped According to Orbion, the move to $79,000 marked the final bull trap of its bear market cycle. He argued that there is no more meaningful demand left at the top, suggesting that the Bitcoin price will likely continue struggling to sustain any further upside momentum from current levels. Against this backdrop, the analyst is urging investors and holders to sell their coins to avoid losses. He believes that Bitcoin is now forming its final bear market bottom, which could trigger a drop toward the $40,000 region. His accompanying chart clearly displays this bearish setup, showing Bitcoin’s weakening momentum despite its recent rebounds to higher levels. The chart shows that since the flagship cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025, its price has been in a prolonged downtrend. It has also traded within a narrow descending channel for months, constantly making lower highs and lower lows. If price action plays out as Orbion says, Bitcoin could hit another lower high below $45,000, representing a more than 40% decline from current price levels above $75,000. The analyst believes a decline in this region is highly likely, marking it as BTC’s final cycle bottom. Analyst Sees No Chance Of BTC Hitting $100,000 This Year Sharing similar bearish sentiments, market analyst KillaXBT has boldly claimed that Bitcoin has “absolutely zero chance” of surpassing or even reclaiming the $100,000 level this year. He noted that 42% of market participants still hold hopes that Bitcoin can close the year with a bullish green candle. Because of this large scale, the analyst believes the current market sentiment has not yet reached true capitulation. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68,000 Again As a result, the analyst expects the next 90 days to be highly volatile and difficult for traders, likely marked by sharp, unpredictable price swings. He further warned that Bitcoin is more likely to crash toward sub-$60,000 levels than stage a recovery back above $100,000 in the near term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s recent rejection near key resistance has raised fresh concerns about the strength of its ongoing rally. After a steady climb, signs of selling pressure are beginning to emerge, hinting that bullish momentum may be weakening. With price now hovering around critical support zones, the next move could determine whether the uptrend regains traction or starts to lose steam. 2–618 Pattern Triggers: BTC Rejected At $78,000 In a market update, analyst Kamile Uray revealed that the long-anticipated 2-618 pattern for Bitcoin has officially activated. After the price approached the $78,037 mark, significant selling pressure stalled the upward momentum. This reaction at the local peak confirms that the market is currently responding to technical overhead, initiating a corrective phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Setup Suggests Liquidity Hunt Before Next Directional Move The immediate outlook suggests the current decline could extend down to the $73,762 level, which serves as a critical decision point for the asset. If Bitcoin manages to hold this floor, the possibility of a renewed bullish push remains on the table. Should the price slip below the $73,762 bottom, the next major target is $70,165, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci support of the most recent upward wave. A successful defense of this area would likely spark another upward move. Conversely, if bulls want to reclaim full control, they must achieve a close above $79,555. Such a move would establish the first higher high on the 4-hour chart relative to the recent downturn, signaling a continuation of the macro uptrend toward the $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000 range. In the event of a more severe retracement, secondary supports are identified at $65,666, $63,823, $62,433, and $60,000. The stakes are particularly high at this lower limit; a daily close below $60,000 would be a highly bearish signal, potentially marking the beginning of a more substantial market decline. Key Levels In Focus: Mapping Bitcoin’s Critical Zones Highlighting the key levels marked on the chart, Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that the low $80,000 region remains a pivotal zone for bulls in the short to mid-term. He also noted that the $72,000 level, which previously acted as resistance for over two months, has now flipped into a critical support zone. Related Reading: Why Every Bitcoin Macro Triangle Breakdown Has Led To A Retracement Phase Maintaining price above this level would reinforce bullish control and suggest that the market is building a solid base for further upside, providing the foundation needed for another leg higher. A breakdown below $72,000, however, would likely indicate that the momentum from the recent bounce is fading, opening the door for more sideways market structure. Although Bitcoin has posted a steady 20% gain throughout April, the price action may not last long, as volatility is expected to emerge at any point. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The latest holder data from Santiment shows that crypto adoption is still increasing, even as prices are without a clear bullish trend across the market. Bitcoin is approaching a major wallet milestone, XRP has continued to grow its user base, and Ethereum is dominating the field by a wide margin. Numbers Reveal A Surge In Adoption New figures from on-chain analytics platform Santiment show that cryptocurrencies are witnessing intense adoption across the board. This data is particularly gotten from the holder count from Santiment, which looks at the number of addresses with non-empty balances. Of the bunch, Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum are posting numbers that are noteworthy. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Have Been Rising And Falling Sharply Bitcoin’s holder count is now one of the clearest signs of adoption across the crypto industry. Santiment’s latest data shows Bitcoin is currently at about 59.08 million non-empty wallets, bringing the network close to the 60 million mark. This means Bitcoin has built one of the largest ownership bases in crypto despite several months of difficult price action and correction from its 2025 price peak. The timing of Bitcoin’s wallet growth is important because it is coming at the same time institutional demand is starting to improve again. Data from SoSoValue shows that Spot Bitcoin ETF flows witnessed positive flows in March and April, after four straight months of net outflows from late November 2025 through February 2026 that totaled about $4 billion. Santiment’s data places XRP’s non-empty wallet count at 7.8 million. That figure, when viewed in isolation, is somewhat modest against Bitcoin’s tally. However, when viewed in context, it reflects a network that has increased in adoption with unusual consistency over the past 18 months since it started trading in the US again. This growth is also notable because XRP has not had the kind of price performance that would usually be expected to accompany a rising holder base. A Broader Market In Expansion The Santiment snapshot is not limited to only Bitcoin and XRP, and it places the cryptocurrencies in context compared to the rest of the market. According to Santiment, Ethereum is nearing 190 million non-empty wallets for the first time in its history, putting it far ahead of every other large-cap crypto asset tracked in the dataset. Ethereum’s 189.5 million non-empty wallets is itself a headline number, one that places it at 3.2 times Bitcoin’s holder count. Related Reading: Analyst Says High XRP Price Targets Are Dangerous, Here’s Why XRP’s 7.8 million non-empty wallets place it below Dogecoin’s 8.25 million and Tether’s 13.61 million on Ethereum, but above USDC’s 6.76 million, Cardano’s 4.63 million, and Chainlink’s 870,720 non-empty wallets. These holder numbers show how far crypto adoption has grown. Research estimates that about 559 million people now own cryptocurrency in 2026, representing a 9.9% global adoption rate, with further growth expected when clearer regulations take shape in the US and other major jurisdictions. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
When Gary Gensler left the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2025, Bitcoin was trending higher, and many expected a more favorable regulatory backdrop to drive further upside. Instead, BTC has fallen sharply to a zone that complicates a once-popular narrative that regulation, or Gensler specifically, was the primary force holding the market back. Bitcoin’s Price May Be Saying More About Markets Than Regulators The market reaction to regulatory change hasn’t played out the way many expected. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has mentioned on X that when Gary Gensler stepped down from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2025, Bitcoin was trading around $109,000. Today, it sits closer to $75,000. Related Reading: Crypto Markets Rattle As Bitcoin Sinks Under $77K Following Oil Spike Cowen argues that one major reason the crypto markets have suffered is that market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grift age of crypto. During the period, the influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital, with liquidity flowing into speculative assets instead of strengthening the broader ecosystem. While people celebrated Gensler’s exit, it marked a turning point in the industry, with BTC only marginally going higher before entering a bear market. According to Cowen, now that some people are celebrating Jerome Powell’s removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it is a sign that history could repeat itself. They celebrated it in the short term, which will mark a turning point in credibility for the Fed in a few years. If the Fed becomes another cabinet within the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution. In a few years, participants will realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him. Liquidity Sweeps Into FOMC Are Becoming A Familiar Setup Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and it’s not bullish in the short term. A crypto trader known as Max Trades highlighted that following the last seven FOMC meetings, BTC dropped sharply after each decision. Related Reading: Bitcoin Setup Suggests Liquidity Hunt Before Next Directional Move What makes the current setup notable is how closely it mirrors the conditions seen before the March meeting. Back then, price rallied into the event, repeatedly sweeping local highs while building a large pool of liquidity below. That structure marked the local top, followed by a 13% correction that erased most of the prior move. Heading into the current interest rate decision, these factors are in place, with BTC price trading just below a major higher-timeframe resistance level, adding another layer of confluence to the downside scenario. However, if this same scenario plays out similarly, the BTC price could point to the formation of another local top around this event. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, a BTC-focused tech company, has made a bold call, predicting that the Bitcoin price could eventually explode to $1 million per coin. Mow’s ambitious price forecast adds to the growing list of $1 million Bitcoin price projections by Bitwise and other market experts. The CEO has pointed to supply and demand dynamics as the key factor that could drive this seven-figure price target. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Climb To $1 Million The Bitcoin price is now sitting above $75,000 after a sharp rebound to $79,000, only to quickly reverse most of those gains. Despite its failure to return to its all-time high above $126,000, market experts still maintain strong bullish outlooks for BTC. Notably, Mow’s $1 million price forecast for Bitcoin suggests that the cryptocurrency could surge by over 1,200% or roughly 13x from its current price, marking a staggering gain. Speaking on a podcast, the CEO did not provide a clear timeline for this target. However, he strongly implied that a run to this level is inevitable. Related Reading: Here’s How The Ethereum Vs. Solana Rivalry Is Going He backed his outlook by arguing that Bitcoin could experience a sharp “Omega Candle” that may propel its price toward $1 million. He stated that this move could occur sooner than expected and would likely be driven by a major shift in BTC’s supply and demand dynamics. According to him, the current market appears to be mispricing BTC’s supply, with enough coins still sitting around waiting to be sold. He stated that many people are also being misled into believing that BTC has an infinite supply and that its price will always remain low. However, Mow rejects this view, noting that major Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy and others are steadily accumulating BTC, which could drive the available supply to extreme lows. Once this happens, the CEO believes that BTC could face a powerful supply shock that could propel its price toward $1 million. Mow also stated that Bitcoin has a habit of moving in directions the market does not expect. He argued that the traditional four-year cycle is dead and suggested that BTC could eventually hit a new ATH sooner than many expect. Despite claims that the market is in a bear market, the CEO believes Bitcoin can continue rising, challenging expectations of a prolonged downturn. Mow Outlines Bull Case For $10 Million BTC Price Another major reason Mow believes BTC could reach $1 million is its potential to evolve into the world’s reserve asset. As demand from institutions rises and more countries adopt the cryptocurrency, Mow expects BTC’s price to continue to increase over time. Related Reading: XRP Price At $25,000? The ‘Divine’ Prediction That Is Setting The Community On Fire He has also projected that the flagship cryptocurrency could eventually surge to $10,000,000 per coin. A massive gain like this would represent a 900% increase from $1 million and an overall gain of more than 13,200% from its current price. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Kaz has called the local Bitcoin top, stating that the leading crypto has little room to the upside. The analyst also explained why BTC is now likely to drop below the psychological $60,000 level, which would mark a new low for the crypto asset. Bitcoin Top About To Form As Price Eyes Drop Below $60,000 In an X post, Kaz said Bitcoin is very close to a local top, despite market participants predicting a sustained rally to $90,000. He noted that the last local top formed around $97,000, when people were calling for a rally to $108,000, but it did not happen. Instead, BTC was rejected from the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) and recorded a massive decline. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68,000 Again Kaz stated that the same price action is playing out again, with Bitcoin very close to the local top and a daily FVG in place. The analyst predicted that BTC might be rejected from the daily FVG and form a local top between $80,000 and $82,000. He also mentioned that the final range won’t dump in an instant but would rather be a slow bleed. The analyst further pointed to the first week of May as when the Bitcoin top could form. Commenting on the current price action, he noted that BTC has only swept the highs and has formed equal lows on the lower timeframe, which is very likely to get swept. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could drop as low as $56,000 on the next move lower. Meanwhile, Kaz revealed that he will be adding to his short if BTC sweeps the $80,000 range. BTC No Longer In A Bear Flag In an X post, crypto analyst Colin stated that Bitcoin remains in the yellow channel, with $81,000 as resistance at the upper boundary. The analyst noted that a break above this upper boundary would be bullish while a break below the lower boundary at $72,000 would be bearish. He added that if BTC continues to gradually climb within the channel, it will bump into overhead resistance between $80,000 and $86,000. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY Colin warned that this is where Bitcoin will struggle to sustain its upward momentum and will likely find a local top, completing the relief rally. He explained that this range is highly likely to be a rejection point for BTC, as there is a convergence of overhead resistance levels, the 200-day moving average (MA), and the upper range of the channel. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could drop to around $66,000 when this relief rally is over. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,600, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin’s latest drawdown has pushed the market into a zone that has historically aligned with accumulation phases, even as its momentum signal remains negative and broader crypto risk appetite stays narrow. In its Signals Report Q2 2026, Fidelity’s research team described a market still working through a corrective phase rather than entering a broad-based expansion. Bitcoin remains the dominant source of unrealized profitability across the digital asset complex, while other major assets continue to stabilize after a sharp reset in Q1. Fidelity Says Bitcoin Looks Undervalued The report’s clearest Bitcoin price signal comes from the asset’s “Yardstick,” a valuation framework that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to hash rate. Fidelity rated the metric positive, noting that falling prices and a pullback in hash rate have pushed the indicator into what it calls an “undervalued” zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin $90,000 Predictions Surge Across Social Media—Contrarian Signal? “Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms,” the report stated. According to Fidelity, Bitcoin spent 71 of the previous 91 days, or 78% of the period, below negative one standard deviation of the Yardstick’s mean. The condition first appeared in October 2025 and was amplified by two cold-weather events in the United States that temporarily curtailed mining activity as operators reduced power usage to support local grid stability. That nuance matters. Fidelity does not frame the hash-rate decline purely as a sign of deteriorating miner confidence. The report said some analysts have linked the decline to miners shifting toward AI workloads, but argued the move could also reflect demand-response programs, especially in regions such as Texas where miners routinely power down during peak grid demand. The price backdrop remains difficult. Fidelity’s momentum signal for Bitcoin turned negative on October 18, 2025, when BTC traded near $107,000. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 36%, with most of Q1 2026 spent in a defined range between $62,500 and $76,022. The firm said that pattern is more consistent with consolidation than a renewed trend. “This signal is not designed to identify precise tops or bottoms,” Fidelity wrote, adding that the current reading points to stabilization rather than fresh upside momentum. Bitcoin’s NUPL score also reflects a cautious market. Fidelity said BTC’s net unrealized profit/loss stood at 0.21 at the end of Q1 2026, placing investors in the “Hope-Fear” zone. That reading suggests some holders remain in profit, but the market has not yet established broad conviction that a durable bottom is in place. The historical setup is more constructive. Fidelity found that prior periods when Bitcoin’s NUPL hovered around 0.21, plus or minus 0.01, coincided with a median one-year return of 63% and a three-year compound annual growth rate of 74%. The firm emphasized, however, that these historical relationships may weaken or fail to persist, particularly when macro conditions dominate digital asset flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish Separately, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer pointed to a more tactical Bitcoin setup, sharing a chart that shows BTC testing the upper boundary of what he described as a potential bear flag. The chart places Bitcoin near $79,486 after its rebound from the February low around $60,033, with momentum indicators moving back into overbought territory. Timmer framed the current setup as an important technical test. “Technical Analysis 101 states that when bear market rallies get overbought, it’s usually the kiss of death and time to sell,” he wrote. “However, during bull markets overbought momentum means that the market is strong and likely to stay strong.” His conclusion sharpened the price question raised by Fidelity’s broader report: whether Bitcoin is still trapped in a corrective structure or beginning to transition into a new bull phase. “If Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this current combination of overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market and not a bear market rally,” Timmer said, adding that this has been his “hunch all along” and “may be about to get confirmed.” At press time, BTC traded at $76,036. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Social media data shows trader calls for $90,000+ Bitcoin prices have registered a spike recently, a potential sign of FOMO brewing in the market. Bitcoin Has Seen An Uptick In Greedy Social Media Calls In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about where the social media crowd is expecting Bitcoin to go next. The indicator of relevance here is the “Social Volume,” which measures the total number of posts/messages/threads containing unique mentions of a given term or topic that currently exist on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Returning To Risk-On? Flow Pulse Surges 136% From March Lows As an initial filter, Santiment separated the social volume for Bitcoin-associated terms. Then, it further filtered it for terms related to price predictions. For bearish calls, the analytics firm has chosen the sub $50,000 to $59,000 price range, while for the bullish ones, it has selected the $90,000 to $99,000 range. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Social Volumes related to the two types of calls have changed over the past month. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume related to the sub-$60,000 prices shot up back at the start of April. This means that social media users were expecting a bearish outcome for the cryptocurrency. What followed this market pessimism was a recovery rally that took BTC to a peak above $79,000, instead of the outcome that the crowd was expecting. This is a pattern that has actually been observed time and again; digital asset markets tend to move against the expectations of the majority. From the chart, it’s visible that social media sentiment around Bitcoin has flipped recently, with the calls related to the $90,000+ levels overtaking the Social Volume of the sub-$60,000 levels. This optimism has interestingly maintained despite the pullback that BTC has seen since its high. Considering the past pattern, the high Social Volume of the $90,000+ terms may be not be a positive sign for the cryptocurrency. “Price predictions of a coin are a great way to see what the OPPOSITE likely path for prices will look like,” noted the analytics firm. Related Reading: Chainlink Exchange Outflows Hit 970,430 LINK, Largest Of 2026 The current social media optimism around Bitcoin is also visible from the perspective of another indicator known as the Positive/Negative Sentiment. As the below chart shows, this metric has spiked to a value of 1.38, which implies that there are 1.38 bullish comments related to BTC for every bearish post. Solana is observing bullish sentiment of an even higher intensity, with positive comments outpacing negative ones by nearly 3:1. BTC Price Bitcoin has returned to the $76,700 mark following its retrace. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $76,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $75,000 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $76,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $76,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $76,500 and $77,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $76,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $76,000 level. There was a move below the $75,500 level. The price even dipped below $75,000. A low was formed at $74,940 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $76,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,200 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $77,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,500 level. The first major support is near the $75,250 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,400 and $77,200.
The Bitcoin price is currently sitting on a key support trendline that could determine its next major move. According to a crypto analyst, a breakout from this level could lead to two possible scenarios. On the bullish side, the cryptocurrency could extend its recent price recovery and push higher. However, in a bearish scenario, the analyst predicts a steep decline, with price possibly revisiting $68,000. Given the significance of this trendline, analysts and traders are closely watching to see how Bitcoin will react here. Bitcoin Price Sits At Critical Make Or Break Trendline Crypto market analyst Ardi has presented another compelling Bitcoin price analysis on X. However, this time, he has outlined two potential price scenarios for the flagship cryptocurrency. While others believe that Bitcoin may have entered bullish territory following its surge above $79,000, Ardi still maintains a cautious stance even as he projects possible bullish scenarios. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bull Market And Will Continue To Rise; Analyst Shares Why In his post, Ardi noted that the Bitcoin price is currently sitting at a critical technical area where two key support levels are converging. He said that these supports include an established ascending trendline pointing toward $79,418 and a liquidity zone around the $77,300 level. According to him, this ascending trendline has guided Bitcoin’s price action since it reached $65,000 in early April. The chart also clearly shows that every major swing high within BTC’s latest recovery has respected this trendline, making it a consistently tested support area throughout the upward move. As a result, Ardi emphasized that this trendline has become a critical zone for the market to watch, especially as Bitcoin is now approaching a decisive point where price could either break above or below the support. He also noted that every rally since the $65,000 level was gained from key liquidity zones found on this ascending trendline. Because of this, he believes that as long as the trendline holds, Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure will remain intact. Moreover, if the cryptocurrency can break above the trendline at $79,410, it could extend its move higher. Analyst Predicts Possible Price Flush To $68,000 For his bearish outlook, Ardi explained that if Bitcoin loses the $77,300 support level, it could mark the first clear breakdown toward a decline to lower levels. He noted that this would invalidate BTC’s bullish structure and signal a major shift in momentum. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Is Going To $200,000, Reveals When To Buy From there, he expects BTC’s price to move into deeper liquidity pockets below current levels. He pointed to a potential healthy retest around $76,000, followed by a pullback near $73,600 if selling pressure persists. If Bitcoin breaks this area, he believes that the cryptocurrency could turn bearish, potentially driving the price back toward $68,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is holding above $76,000 as the market tests resistance, and bulls attempt to build the momentum needed for the next leg higher. The price is constructive. The order book above it is not cooperating. Data from CoinGlass shows that the sell wall between $80,500 and $82,000 has been in place for over 24 hours. The orders are large, evenly spaced at approximately $3.3 million intervals, and they have not moved. In order book analysis, that combination — scale, spacing, and persistence — is the fingerprint of deliberate placement rather than coincidental accumulation. Spoofs disappear within minutes. This wall has survived a full trading day and is still there. Related Reading: Crypto Traders Just Moved $100 Billion In Gold Volume: Find Out What Is Driving The Rush The picture below shows that the current price adds a layer of complexity to the straightforward bearish reading of the supply overhead. Bids are stacking meaningfully around $76,800 and throughout the $75,000 to $76,000 zone — a demand cluster building beneath Bitcoin, at the same time, a supply cluster is holding firm above it. The market is being compressed from both directions simultaneously. That compression is the setup that defines the current moment. A wall of persistent selling above. A cushion of building demand below. Bitcoin caught between them, holding $76,000, with the next decisive move depending entirely on which side of the order book proves stronger when the pressure resolves. The Wall Has Not Moved. That Is the Point The CoinGlass analysis cuts through the most common objection to reading persistent order book levels as meaningful signals. Individual orders can be pulled, replaced, or refreshed at any moment — that is the nature of a dynamic order book, and it means no single order should be treated as a commitment. That is not what makes the current setup significant. What makes it significant is the zone itself. The $80,500 to $82,000 range has remained consistently occupied by large, evenly spaced sell orders for over 24 hours — not because the same orders have been sitting untouched, but because whatever orders were removed have been replaced by orders of similar size in similar positions. The zone is being actively maintained. Someone, or multiple coordinated participants, is ensuring that a visible supply continues to exist in this specific area, regardless of what happens to the individual orders within it. That distinction matters enormously for how the current resistance should be interpreted. A cluster of orders that appears once and disappears is noise — it could be a spoof, a momentary imbalance, or a participant who changed their mind. A zone that remains consistently populated over an extended period is a statement. It reflects participants who want that supply to be visible, who want the market to know that selling interest exists at those levels, and who are willing to maintain that appearance through a full trading day and beyond. The question the data cannot answer — and the one the article must address — is why. Control, defense, pressure, or a test of real demand. The wall is real. The motivation behind it is what determines how the next move resolves. Related Reading: Binance Ethereum Supply Hits 2020 Levels While Staking Locks A Third: Repricing Ahead? Bitcoin Holds Above Reclaimed Range as Resistance Approaches Bitcoin is trading near $77,500 on the daily chart, maintaining strength after reclaiming the $74,000–$75,000 range that previously acted as resistance. That zone now functions as support, and the structure since early April shows a clear shift: higher highs and higher lows have replaced the choppy, directionless behavior seen through March. The recovery from the February capitulation near $62,000 was aggressive, supported by a strong volume spike that marked a clear exhaustion of sellers. Since then, volume has normalized, but price has continued to grind higher — a constructive sign that demand remains present even without panic-driven flows. Related Reading: XRP’s Recovery Is Real, But The Risk Appetite Behind It Is Still Broken – Analyst Technically, Bitcoin is now pressing into the $78,000–$80,000 region, where previous breakdowns occurred and where the 100-day moving average is beginning to flatten overhead. The 200-day moving average sits lower, around the reclaimed range, reinforcing the $74,000 area as a key structural support. Momentum is positive but slowing. The recent candles show smaller bodies and wicks on both sides, indicating hesitation as the price approaches resistance. If Bitcoin consolidates above $74,000, the structure supports a breakout attempt toward $82,000. Losing that level would weaken the trend and risk a move back into the prior range. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) failed again to push back above the $80,000 level this week, a price point that has remained stubbornly resistant since early February. After struggling through the latest attempt to break higher, BTC retraced to around $75,400 on Wednesday. Bloomberg attributes part of this stagnation to a less visible but powerful force: positioning in the options market. According to the report, a concentrated set of call options has built up around the $80,000 strike on Deribit. Why Bitcoin Keeps Stalling Near $80,000 As Andy Baehr, managing director of asset management at GSR, explained in the report, many speculators are choosing to sell calls at $80,000 because it is viewed as a “safe” area to monetize premiums. The other side of those trades is where the pressure begins. Dealers who buy the calls often hedge by selling Bitcoin, creating what Baehr described as an “electric fence” effect—an arrangement that makes it harder for BTC to surge through the strike level without an unusual catalyst. That helps explain why Bitcoin has still struggled to clear $80,000. Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Posts $200M Quarterly Loss—Did Hyperliquid Help Avoid New Crisis? The options picture is reinforced by activity levels in broader markets. The report also points to on-chain data and platform metrics suggesting that the group (retail) that drove the earlier rally has largely stepped back. Instead, many are said to be nursing losses or waiting for clearer signals. At the same time, a persistently bearish Bitcoin futures market and slowing spot demand have encouraged some traders to underwrite more call options, aiming to capture premium income on the expectation that Bitcoin will not meaningfully trade above the $80,000 strike over the coming months. May Expiries, Rolling Calls, And Stock-Driven Volatility Deribit’s $80,000 Bitcoin calls appear especially concentrated in the late May and June expiries. According to market data provider Kaiko, out of roughly $1.5 billion in notional call open interest, contracts totaling $160 million are set to expire on May 1, with an additional $566 million expiring on May 29. Those clustering dates can matter because they concentrate both hedging activity and speculative behavior into specific time windows. Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, said the pattern suggests persistent call selling and evidence of “systematic rolling.” In other words, rather than allowing positions to roll off naturally, market participants may keep moving risk forward in a way that maintains pressure near the strike. Erdösi also cautioned that options positioning alone does not tell the whole story, noting there are signs of profit-taking into the $80,000 area for Bitcoin as well. Related Reading: XRP Price Target At $18,000: Expert Says—Only One Condition Must Be Met Finally, the report flags that volatility outside crypto may spill into Bitcoin’s price action. With equities showing sharper movement in recent sessions, BTC has tended to follow along. Bohan Jiang, senior derivatives trader at FalconX, suggested that this could contribute to a more stabilizing pattern around $80,000. In his view, with stocks “chopping around” recently, Bitcoin’s behavior has mirrored that uncertainty—helping explain why attempts to break through the level keep stalling. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price structure is starting to look less like a clean recovery to $80,000 and more like a battleground between $76,000 and $78,000, where every rally is being tested, and every dip is being watched. A new technical outlook from a crypto analyst known as Guru is now adding an interesting angle to that uncertainty, outlining a path where Bitcoin could first lure in late buyers before unwinding into a 50% decline before the end of the year. Next Bitcoin Move Bitcoin’s recent price action in April has led to bullish momentum slowly creeping in, and many analysts are now looking at bullish price targets at the end of the year. However, in a post shared on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Guru laid out a revised multi-stage roadmap for Bitcoin that culminates in a crash to as low as $30,000 by year-end, a drawdown of as much as 61% from current levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped The chart accompanying the post is a weekly timeframe chart that projects the full arc of the move: a compression zone, a rally, and then a terminal decline that would take Bitcoin to price levels last seen in late 2023. According to the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently transitioning into a high-timeframe redistribution phase. Guru’s original prediction anticipated a simpler two-act sequence involving a flush to $55,000 followed by a direct rally to $80,000. That scenario has now been superseded, though the analyst is clear that the broader conclusion has not changed. The updated plan introduces a higher-timeframe (HTF) consolidation and redistribution phase first, which is likely to trap traders on both sides. The prediction based on this updated plan is that Bitcoin will reverse soon to find a local bottom in the $62,000-$65,000 zone before staging a rally to $85,000. It is that rally, Guru argues, that is the real danger. “The 85k pump will be the ultimate exit liquidity trap,” the analyst wrote. A Year-End Slide To $30,000 The most interesting part of the prediction is what is expected to happen once Bitcoin undergoes the projected rally to $85,000. Once the liquidity above is taken and the market exhausts buying pressure, the analyst anticipates a move lower, targeting a broad range between $50,000 on the higher end and $30,000 on the lower end before the end of the year. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $140,000 And XRP To $7? Here’s When It Will Happen Despite the severity of the forecast, Guru has been explicit about what would invalidate it. A weekly close above $98,000 would render the entire bearish scenario void. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,000, which means a drop to $50,000 would represent a decline of roughly 35%, while a deeper slide to $30,000 would translate to an approximate 61% loss from current levels. On the other hand, a move to the analyst’s invalidation level at $98,000 would require a rally of about 27%. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s technical indicators had just started flashing warning signs when crude oil markets made things worse. The MACD histogram turned red — a signal that buying pressure was fading — right as West Texas Intermediate crude surged past $104 a barrel, rattling risk assets across the board. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Bitcoin Gives Back Recent Gains BTC had clawed its way above $78,000 earlier this week, briefly restoring confidence among buyers. That recovery is now gone. The cryptocurrency slipped below $77,000 on April 28, trading at $76,180 — its lowest level since April 22, when it had just reclaimed that threshold after weeks of struggling beneath it. The $77,000 mark carries weight in Bitcoin’s recent history. The asset first broke below it in early February and spent a prolonged stretch under it. A failed retest on April 17 kept sellers in control. The brief breakout on April 22 looked like a turning point. It wasn’t. For Bitcoin to get back on track, analysts say it needs to retake $77,000 and push through the upper Bollinger Band near $79,850. Until then, the immediate floor sits around $75,490, near the middle Bollinger Band — a level BTC has bounced from before, though holding it is far from guaranteed. Oil Jumps As Iran Talks Hit A Wall The backdrop driving the sell-off is a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations. On April 27, Iran put forward a new proposal through Pakistani intermediaries. The offer included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting a US blockade, while asking to push nuclear discussions to a later stage. US President Donald Trump rejected it. His administration made clear that the terms didn’t go far enough — particularly on nuclear weapons, which Trump said Iran could not be allowed to develop. A planned US delegation trip to Islamabad had already been canceled after earlier Iranian terms were seen as insufficient, with travel security concerns also cited. Indirect back-channel communication continues, but face-to-face talks remain frozen. Oil markets moved fast. WTI crude shot from $98 to a peak of $104 before pulling back slightly to $101. That still left it up 2.50% on the day and more than 4% on the week, following a 12.70% surge the prior week. Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update Crypto Markets Feel The Pressure Bitcoin retreated 2% on April 28 after sliding 1.64% the previous day. The consecutive losses erased what had looked like a meaningful recovery, leaving the asset more than $3,000 below where it traded just days earlier. Broader market uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions is adding to the pressure. When oil climbs sharply, it typically signals supply fears and geopolitical instability — conditions that tend to push investors away from higher-risk assets like crypto. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin's rebound is running straight into one of the few events it can't price in advance. After climbing back toward $80,000 on the back of renewed institutional buying and a nine-day ETF inflow streak, BTC pulled back to around $76,500 on Tuesday before recovering early Wednesday to around $77,800 as the Federal Reserve began its […]
The post Bitcoin heads into Fed decision today at the exact price where its strongest holders may finally sell appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 before the year is out — at least according to one widely followed chart analyst. That bleak projection, drawn from a pattern tied to US midterm election years, is adding fresh weight to a growing skepticism about whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2026. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Pattern Tied To Election Years Raises Red Flags Analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed to a recurring tendency for Bitcoin to sell off sharply in May of midterm election years. In 2014, Bitcoin dropped 60%. In 2018, it fell 65%. In 2022, the decline hit 66%. Each of those drops started around May. If 2026 follows the same script, Bitcoin — currently trading near $77,000 — could lose more than 60% of its value, landing somewhere close to $30,000. THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS. Sell. In. May. But only in mid-term election years. 2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%. 2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing to $30K. May is approaching. The chart doesn’t lie. The calendar doesn’t either. pic.twitter.com/qUshNbIHPN — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 27, 2026 Capital Group analysts have noted that midterm elections tend to increase market uncertainty, as campaign activity picks up in the spring and investors pull back from riskier assets. That environment, they say, historically pushes people toward caution. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is already trading roughly 40% below its October 2025 record high of approximately $126,000. Despite that slide, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee have not walked back their $250,000 year-end target — a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from where it sits today. Bitcoiners Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms This is called a channel $BTC While it does not preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern The Factor Report reports on classical chart analysis https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla — The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) April 27, 2026 Peter Brandt Tells Bulls To Put Down The Mushrooms Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has been blunter than most. Reacting to the $250,000 predictions, Brandt posted on social media: “Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms.” He pointed to what he described as a bear flag channel forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart — not a bottoming pattern, he stressed, but a continuation of the existing downtrend. Based on the setup, BTC tested resistance near $79,500 before showing signs of pulling back. A move down to the flag’s lower boundary, around $69,000, is possible in May if selling pressure returns. A more severe breakdown below that line, Brandt warned, could push Bitcoin under $50,000. Halving Cycle Data Suggests The Peak May Already Be In The halving cycle history makes the bear case harder to dismiss. Bitcoin’s price peaks have historically arrived 12 to 18 months after each halving event. After the 2012 halving, the peak came in 12 months. After 2016, it arrived in 17. After 2020, it took 18 months. Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update The most recent halving happened in April 2024. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 — right at the 17 to 18-month mark. Now, more than 24 months past that halving, the price sits around $77,000 and is still declining. That timeline, analysts say, lines up closely with prior cycle peaks, suggesting the top for this cycle may already be behind us. Not everyone is ready to call it a bear market, though. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed to a potential recovery toward the $100,000 to $150,000 range, a more measured view that neither chases the $250,000 target nor surrenders to the most bearish projections. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons indicator has flashed another buy signal, reviving a historically watched miner-capitulation setup. But according to crypto analyst Darkfost, the signal may require more caution this cycle as miner activity becomes increasingly exposed to energy shocks, geopolitical pressure and shrinking block rewards. Hash Ribbons is designed to track stress in Bitcoin mining by comparing the 30-day moving average of hashrate with the 60-day moving average. When shorter-term hashrate falls below longer-term hashrate and later recovers, the model has often been interpreted as a sign that miner capitulation is ending and that conditions are improving for the network’s operators. Bitcoin Buy Signal Returns, But Here’s The Catch Darkfost framed the latest signal as potentially constructive, but not self-explanatory. “Hash Ribbons flashes a buy signal again: but should we trust it?” he wrote, describing the indicator as “a barometer of Bitcoin miners’ activity” that helps identify “genuine stress periods affecting BTC mining operations.” The logic behind the indicator is straightforward. When miners face severe margin pressure, some operators shut down machines or sell BTC reserves to cover costs. That can reduce hashrate, lengthen block intervals and add near-term supply pressure to the market. Eventually, if enough hashrate leaves the network, mining difficulty adjusts lower. If Bitcoin’s price stabilizes or recovers during that same period, miners that remain online can see profitability improve quickly. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish “That is where opportunity often emerges,” Darkfost argued. “Once enough difficulty resets out of the system, mining becomes more attractive again. Machines come back online, forced selling eases, and network conditions normalize.” The signal matters because miner economics have become structurally more demanding. Bitcoin miners now receive 3.125 BTC per block before fees, down sharply from the 50 BTC rewards in the network’s early years. Although the dollar value of block rewards has grown over time, the subsidy continues to decline with each halving, forcing miners to operate with tighter discipline and more efficient infrastructure. Darkfost pointed to several sources of pressure on mining profitability, including rising difficulty, the need for more powerful ASIC machines, volatile energy costs, fixed expenses such as rent and staffing, Bitcoin price swings and even weather-related disruptions. These variables can combine quickly, especially for operators with high electricity costs or less efficient fleets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says That is also why the analyst warned against treating every Hash Ribbons signal as equal. Earlier this year, he noted, an ice storm in the United States forced many miners to temporarily shut down operations, producing a signal that later looked misleading. Darkfost also cited false signals around the 2021 China mining ban and in June 2022, though he emphasized that the drivers were different in each case. “Hash Ribbons still has a strong long term track record, but the context behind each signal matters more than ever,” he wrote. “These days, mining activity is becoming increasingly sensitive as block rewards shrink over time. Right now, ongoing geopolitical conflict is disrupting parts of the energy market and key shipping routes, both of which can affect miner activity in a way.” That distinction is central to the current setup. A classic miner-capitulation signal can suggest that forced selling is easing and that weaker operators have already been flushed out. But if the hashrate decline was caused by temporary external disruption rather than deep financial stress across the mining sector, the signal may carry less information about market structure. Darkfost’s conclusion was therefore measured rather than outright bullish. Hash Ribbons may again be pointing to improving conditions for Bitcoin miners, but the current macro and energy backdrop complicates the read. At press time, BTC traded at $77,152. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a critical support level, analysts have warned that the leading cryptocurrency is facing its most important week in months, which could make or break its recovery rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For $88,000? Analysts Forecast May Breakout After Key Weekly Close Bitcoin Price At A Crossroads On Tuesday, Bitcoin dropped below the $76,000 support for the first time in a week, falling to the $75,666 level before bouncing. The flagship crypto has been trading between $74,000-$80,000 after breaking out of its three-month range earlier this month. Amid its recent performance, analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems affirmed that BTC is at a make-or-break moment that might decide its fate, as both the technicals and fundamentals “are at a crossroads.” From a technical perspective, he explained that the cryptocurrency is currently facing “the most relevant resistance on the chart.” Notably, the $80,000 area sits at the top of the rising channel or bear market formation developing on BTC’s chart. It also marks a key horizontal level that has served as a major support zone since the Q4 2024 rally. In addition, there’s a setup around this level that resembles the price action in January. At the time, Bitcoin traded within a bear flag pattern and faced strong resistance around the $97,000 horizontal level. After failing to reclaim this area, the flagship crypto fell to the $60,000 lows. According to the analysis, an initial rejection from this level is normal, but investors should monitor BTC’s reaction below it. “As you can see, the local structure remains bullish, so it will be important for buyers to keep momentum here in order to attempt a breakout once again,” Sjuul detailed. Therefore, the “line in the sand” will be around the $74,000 support, as the structure and former resistance are confluent there. “If bulls manage to hold that level, we truly have a good chance of breaking above $80K and potentially flying to the next resistance level at $86K,” he added. FOMC Meeting To Determine BTC’s Fate? Sjuul warned that this week is probably “one of the most important weeks for BTC in months,” listing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as the biggest catalyst for the market that could push prices in either direction. He highlighted that it will also be Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s last meeting. “Wednesday isn’t just a rate decision; it’s Powell’s final press conference. Every word will carry extra weight.” Analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that the appointment of a new Fed chair has historically put pressure on the markets, with Bitcoin dropping over 50% each time. In January 2014, BTC crashed 84% in the following months after Janet Yellen took over. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish Similarly, the flagship crypto fell 73% and 61% in February 2018 and May 2022 when Powell was confirmed for his first and second terms. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see a major correction next month when Kevin Warsh is expected to become the next Fed chair. Ultimately, Sjuul emphasized the importance of the $74,000 support through this week, noting that if this level is lost, “things could get pretty ugly as we would form a very nasty deviation” back in the previous range, which could open the door for a retest of the February lows. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data suggests appetite for risk may be returning in the Bitcoin sector as spot to derivatives flows in the market have surged recently. Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse Has Shot Up As highlighted by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in an X post, the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse has witnessed sharp increase since the March lows. The “Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse” (IFP) refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of BTC flowing between spot and derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Chainlink Exchange Outflows Hit 970,430 LINK, Largest Of 2026 When the value of this metric goes up, it means investors are increasing their derivatives inflow activity. Such a trend suggests that the appetite for speculation is rising in the market. On the other hand, the indicator observing a drawdown implies the investors may be pulling back on risk as they are transferring a lesser amount of the asset to derivatives platforms. Now, here is the chart shared by Adler Jr that shows the trend in the 30-day and 90-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of the Bitcoin IFP over the last few years: From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse saw its SMAs decline during 2025 and the first couple of months of 2026. This implies that investors were taking a risk-off approach to the digital asset. Interestingly, this lack of interest in speculative activity also maintained even through the bull run to the new all-time high (ATH) that took place last year. Recently, however, a reversal of trend has occurred, with the IFP SMAs turning back up. “Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse is up 136% from March lows,” noted the analyst. This surge naturally indicates that derivatives inflows are now rising. “Flow regime is shifting back to risk-on,” said Adler Jr. In the past, new bull cycles have tended to start when the market has leaned into speculative activity, but it only remains to be seen whether this signal in the IFP will hold or if it’s only a temporary deviation. Related Reading: Solana Nears Triangle Apex: Is A 10% Breakout Move Coming? In some other news, the digital asset sector as a whole has seen a flip in capital netflows recently, as analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out in an X post. As displayed in the chart, the combined monthly netflows into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoins have surged to a positive value of $3 billion. “This represents the first positive net capital inflow we have seen since December, marking a significant shift in market momentum,” explained Martinez. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced from its high above $79,000 as its price has dropped to $75,800. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise advisor Jeff Park says Bitcoin’s next all-time high could be driven not by spot ETF flows alone, but by a fast-growing options market around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. Speaking at Bitcoin Conference 2026 in Las Vegas on Monday, Park argued that IBIT options are beginning to reshape the structure of Bitcoin volatility and may become the catalyst for the asset’s next major leg higher. Why BlackRock’s Bitcoin Options Could Be Crucial Park said the market has reached a notable inflection point: IBIT options open interest has now overtaken Deribit’s open interest “for the first time in a meaningful way.” For years, Deribit has served as the dominant venue for Bitcoin options, with traders often using its D-Vol index as a proxy for implied volatility across the market. Park argued that this approach is increasingly incomplete. “For a long time people would look at Deribit’s D-Vol to calculate implied volatility but D-Vol is flawed,” Park said. “D-Vol only uses Deribit options. The reality is there’s lots of offshore exchanges, there’s now IBIT options, and we actually need more intelligent ways to quantify the parameterization of implied volatility.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Headed For $40,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC That shift matters because the US-listed IBIT options market appears to be pricing Bitcoin risk differently from offshore venues. Park pointed to BVIV US, which tracks implied volatility on IBIT, and BVIV, an offshore exchange aggregate correlation implied volatility measure. According to him, the spread between the two now sits around five points, with IBIT volatility trading higher than Deribit and other offshore exchange volatility. The premium, in Park’s view, may reflect a different kind of buyer entering the Bitcoin options market. Unlike much of the offshore options complex, IBIT options can extend more than two years out, giving investors access to longer-tenor upside exposure through a regulated US product. That duration may be drawing demand from retail investors seeking leveraged participation in a potential Bitcoin rally without the same constraints typically associated with offshore venues. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish “Where is that five points spread coming from? My guess is that there’s a lot of retail demand for upside participation in a longer tenor than what is promised usually on Deribit because IBIT options go out two years plus,” Park said. “And so my bold prediction is that we’re going to see a big Bitcoin move up.” Park’s thesis centers on the interaction between options positioning and Bitcoin’s scarcity. If IBIT options continue to gain market share, and if upside call demand forces dealers or other market participants to hedge dynamically, the resulting gamma effects could add momentum to a rising market. In that setup, options activity would not merely reflect bullish sentiment; it could help amplify it. “My prediction is that it is going to be led by IBIT options and the reflexive nature in which the gamma that is possibly created within something like Bitcoin due to its scarcity can really, really lead the next leg up in a meaningful way,” Park said. At press time, BTC traded at $75,937. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com