Bitcoin's derivatives market gave us the best explanation of this week's macro stress. Funding rates turned sharply negative, open interest stayed elevated, and then the US jobs report landed. Put together, that showed a market leaning hard into downside hedges just as a real macro catalyst arrived. That sequence is worth understanding because it explains […]
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Headlines about Bitcoin ETF outflows often mix two things: Bitcoin's price move and actual share redemptions. If BTC drops, ETF AUM drops in dollars even if nobody sells a single share. That mark-to-market drop gets read as money leaving, and it can look like an institutional exit when the wrapper's Bitcoin holdings and shares outstanding […]
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Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening momentum as it struggles to regain higher ground, placing the market at a critical turning point. The $66,000 level has now emerged as a key support zone that could determine the next major move. Holding above it may give bulls a chance to spark a recovery, while a decisive break below could open the door for a deeper decline. Bitcoin Struggles Below Blue Box Resistance As Buyers Stay Quiet Bitcoin continues to trade below the blue box resistance, signaling that the market has yet to regain strong bullish momentum. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, buyers failed to step in at the $69,407 level that had been closely monitored on the 4-hour timeframe. Although selling pressure pushed the price lower, the pace of the decline has started to slow in the current region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Uray explained that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $66,187 level, the possibility of another attempt toward the blue box resistance remains on the table. A decisive breakout above the $69,407 resistance, especially with strong high-volume candles, could open the door for a much larger upward move. Based on the principle of equal waves, such a breakout scenario could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. A daily close above $98,200 would also establish a new high peak in the context of the latest wave structure on the daily chart, increasing the chances of a sustained uptrend. However, caution may be required if the price approaches the $107,000–$109,000 region, as a bearish Libra formation could develop within that zone. Failure to close above the previous peak could activate the pattern and trigger a renewed downward move. Meanwhile, the $66,187 level remains a key support to watch on the 4-hour chart. Holding above it would keep bullish expectations intact, while a close below it may lead to a retest of $62,433. If the decline deepens further and resistance levels continue to cap upward attempts, the next major support targets are $62,433, $55,230, and $47,256. BTC Loses $70,000 Support As Bearish Momentum Builds Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin was unable to maintain its position above the $70,000 level and eventually closed below it. Holding above that zone was previously highlighted as crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Failure to defend the $70,000 mark suggests that sellers have regained control of the market. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Timeline For When A New Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin This Year The analyst further explained that bearish pressure may continue unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and break above the $74,000 level. As long as the price remains below that threshold, momentum favors the downside, with a potential move toward the $61,000 region or even lower levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded their steepest single-day outflow in nearly three weeks on Friday, with $349 million pulled from all 11 products combined, according to data from Farside. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume The withdrawals came as Bitcoin slid back toward $68,000 after briefly touching $74,000 earlier in the week — a run-up that, based on on-chain data, appears to have been the trigger for a significant wave of selling by large holders. Big Holders Bought Low, Then Sold Fast Crypto analytics platform Santiment tracked the behavior of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin — a group commonly referred to as whales — and found they had been building positions aggressively between Feb. 23 and March 3, when prices were stuck in the $62,900 to $69,600 range. Once Bitcoin crossed $74,000 on Wednesday, those same wallets began offloading. By Friday, roughly 66% of what they had accumulated over that 10-day window had been sold back into the market. Smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin — the retail end of the market — have been adding to their positions as prices fell. According to Santiment, that kind of divergence between large and small holders has historically pointed to more downside ahead. “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” the platform said in a Friday report. Fear Gauge Drops To Its Lowest Reading In Weeks Bitcoin’s slide pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down six points to a score of 12 on Saturday, placing it deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. The index measures market sentiment across a range of factors including volatility, trading volume, and social media activity. Some analysts said that Bitcoin could still face another drop if buyers fail to defend the current price zone. A loss of support around the $67,000–$68,000 range may trigger a move back toward recent lows to gather liquidity before any potential rebound. An Economist’s Case For A $60K Floor Not everyone sees a breakdown coming. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart — a model that measures Bitcoin’s price against the estimated value of its network based on user activity — and said the $60,000 level has held as a bottom in every prior cycle. “About 99.5% chance it stays above $60k,” Peterson wrote on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say Bitcoin had already tested that level once this cycle, falling to $60,000 on Feb. 6 during a broader pullback from an all-time high of $126,000 set in October. Since then, it has managed a partial recovery, though Friday’s ETF outflows and the continued whale selling suggest the market has not yet found stable footing. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
When crude starts leading the headlines, crypto people tend to ask the wrong questions, like what it is that oil actually does to Bitcoin. While it's the simplest and easiest way to explain what you don't know, it's a pretty bad question. A better one is what oil actually does to the cost of money, […]
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Billions of dollars in fresh USDC were printed in just the first week of March — a minting pace that, if sustained, could push Circle’s total for the month past $12 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say That surge is one sign of the momentum behind a broader milestone: total stablecoin transfer volume hit $1.8 trillion in February, the highest monthly figure on record. USDC Pulls Far Ahead Of Tether USDC, issued by Circle Internet Group, accounted for roughly 70% of all stablecoin transfers last month — about $1.26 trillion. Tether’s USDT logged $514 billion over the same period. That gap surprised some analysts, given that Tether holds the larger market cap by a wide margin — $184 billion compared to USDC’s $77.4 billion. According to Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, USDC has “consistently flipped” Tether on transfer volume over the past several months. The disparity means each dollar of USDC is moving far more often than each dollar of USDT. Data from blockchain analytics firm Allium confirmed the February figures. Circle’s business has been growing fast. The company posted strong earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rapid expansion of USDC’s payment operations. Partnerships with platforms such as Polymarket have added to that momentum. Tether’s supply, by comparison, has held relatively flat through the start of March while USDC continues to be printed at speed. What Rising Stablecoin Supply Means For Markets More stablecoins on exchanges generally means more money ready to buy crypto. On March 5 alone, roughly $5.14 billion in stablecoins flowed into exchanges — up from $1.14 billion just four days earlier on March 1. The total stablecoin supply sitting on exchanges climbed to a three-week high of $66.5 billion by Friday. Historically, big jumps in exchange stablecoin supply have preceded crypto price rallies, as sidelined capital gets redeployed into the market. Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $74,000 this week, partly lifted by that stablecoin inflow. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio — which measures Bitcoin’s market cap against total stablecoin market cap — has been recovering after a sharp drop in February. CIRCLE JUST MINTED $250M $USDC Circle just minted another $250M USDC on Solana. They’ve minted over $3 BILLION in just this first week of March. If Circle continue at this pace, they’re on track to mint over $12 Billion USDC by the end of the month. pic.twitter.com/aoQKi6zbFE — Arkham (@arkham) March 7, 2026 A Closer Look At The Numbers The February record was not just about USDC. Overall stablecoin adoption has been climbing. Florida’s state senate passed a stablecoin bill this week, which now awaits the governor’s signature. Related Reading: SEC Vs. Justin Sun Case Ends In $10M Settlement, Traders Eye TRX Price Reaction Regulatory movement at the state level, combined with growing institutional use of dollar-backed tokens for payments and settlement, has kept demand rising. USDC’s $1.26 trillion in February transfers marks the highest monthly total since the stablecoin launched in September 2018. Reports indicate Circle has already minted more than $3 billion in USDC in March’s first week, with Arkham data showing one single mint of $250 million on Solana. Featured image from Bitkub Academy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s rebound on March 4 looked odd if you only watched it through the usual “risk assets are breaking” lens. Oil was jumping, shipping insurers were repricing war risk, and traders were treating the Strait of Hormuz like a live wire. All of the headlines had the cadence of a full-blown crisis. However, Bitcoin climbed […]
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Bitcoin’s initial break above the 6-figure price point back in 2024, and then the eventual move to an all-time high of $126,000, has fueled the expectations of higher price points. Even now, as the price continues to trend below $100,000, it has done little to erase the bullish momentum surrounding the cryptocurrency, especially in the long term. As a result, predictions continue to come out that the Bitcoin price will eventually trade at 6-figures again, and eventually, new all-time highs. Mapping The Bitcoin Price Recovery In a post on the TradingView website, Setupsfx points out an interesting thing about the Bitcoin price chart and why this is bullish for the digital asset. After the Bitcoin price reclaimed $70,000 earlier in the week, it set the tone for another recovery trend, and the analyst suggests that this means that the price can still climb to $200,000. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price At $100 Is Not Insane If You Understand This The analysis highlights that, unlike before, the break above $72,000 came with strong bullish volume. What this simply means is that there is a lot of demand right now for the cryptocurrency, and that is what is driving the current uptrend. If this holds, then the price is likely to continue upward rather than experience another crash. Following the current trend, the analysis sets the first major Bitcoin target at the $104,000 level. This is important because there is a liquidity void sitting in this area. This means that there could be a stop to the uptrend at this level, being a major point of resistance. However, all hope is not lost at this point because it simply shows how important it is to break this resistance. Once this breaks, it sets the cryptocurrency on the path to the next major target, which lies at $124,000. Reaching $124,000 would be momentous for the Bitcoin price as this is just below its current all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Morning Doji Star Shows Bullish Reversal That Will Send Price To $0.8 The final target for this analysis actually lies at the $134,000 level, which could deem the uptrend complete. As for the rally to $200,000, the analyst explains that this is still possible, despite many saying that it is unrealistic. Mainly, the $200,000 target is set for the long-term view of the cryptocurrency. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market. In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning. Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges. Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated. Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend. Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has witnessed a sharp increase recently, indicating that large deposit transactions have gained dominance. Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Seen Its 30-Day SMA Value Hit 0.6 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the sum of the top 10 exchange inflows and the total exchange inflow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces On-Chain Air Gap To $81,000: Will Momentum Build? The ten largest transactions going toward exchanges are generally representative of deposit activity from the whale entities, so the Exchange Whale Ratio essentially tells us about how the inflows from these giants compare with that of the entire market. When the value of the metric is high, it means the whales make up for a large share of the exchange inflows. As one of the main reasons why investors deposit to these platforms is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can be a sign that big-money holders are potentially distributing. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value suggests the whales are making up for a relatively healthy portion of the total market deposits, which can be either neutral or bullish for the cryptocurrency. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio floated around the 0.45 mark during 2025, suggesting whale-sized transactions were making up for less than 50% of the exchange deposit activity. Recently, however, the indicator has witnessed a sharp increase. This surge arrived as BTC saw its leg down to $60,000 in early February, but the metric’s value hasn’t calmed down even as the asset has stabilized. Today, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has a value of 0.6, meaning that the ten largest deposit transactions alone add up to 60% of the exchange inflow volume. It now remains to be seen how the BTC price will develop in the near future, given this possible selling pressure being applied by the large hands. In some other news, the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has just seen a trend flip, as the analyst has highlighted in another X post. The IFP keeps track of the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. Earlier, this metric fell under its 90-day SMA and entered into a period of downtrend, implying speculative activity was declining. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs See 14-Day Netflows Surge: Demand Returning? From the chart, it’s visible that the IFP has recently turned back up and crossed beyond the 90-day, implying derivatives flows could be making a comeback. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,400, up more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s latest rebound to $74,050 on Thursday is running into immediate selling pressure as short-term holders move coins to exchanges in large volumes, suggesting the market’s most reactive cohort remains unconvinced by the recovery. On-chain data shared by CryptoQuant contributors indicates that traders who bought Bitcoin only weeks ago are now locking in gains rather than holding through the bounce, creating a fresh pocket of supply just as the market attempts to stabilize. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Cash In According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, more than 27,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges by short-term holders (STHs) over the past 24 hours, one of the largest spikes recorded in recent months. The metric tracks coins moved to exchanges by investors who are currently in profit, often interpreted as a precursor to potential selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suppressed By Shadow Banking Rehypothecation, Saylor Says “Despite the slight recovery of Bitcoin, STHs (Short Term Holders) do not seem convinced and prefer to take profits quickly,” Darkfost wrote. “Over the past 24 hours, STHs have sent more than 27,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, which ranks among the highest levels observed in recent months.” The dynamic appears concentrated among the most recent buyers. According to the analysis, the only cohort currently able to realize meaningful gains consists of investors who accumulated Bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with a realized price near $68,000. That positioning places them directly in the money after Bitcoin’s latest bounce toward the low-$70,000 range, creating a natural incentive to exit positions quickly. “STH are known for being reactive and emotionally driven, especially the youngest cohorts,” Darkfost noted. “Current news flow and macroeconomic projections remain rather negative in the short term, which makes this behavior relatively understandable and, in this case, fairly rational.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads For now, that behavior translates into near-term supply. “This represents selling pressure to monitor, as STH do not yet appear willing to hold their positions for longer,” he added. Repeated Pattern Around Range Highs Separate market structure analysis points to another pattern that may be reinforcing the selling. CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn highlighted a recurring technical setup that has played out multiple times in recent months: brief breakouts above key resistance levels followed by swift reversals. “Deviations above the Range High keep getting sold,” Maartunn wrote. “Over the last few months, BTC has shown the same pattern three times: break above the range high, short-lived deviation, sharp move lower.” The most recent instance occurred as Bitcoin briefly pushed above a range ceiling near $71,000 before stalling. “The latest deviation just occurred around $71K,” he noted. “If history repeats, this level may again act as a trap for late longs.” The pattern was visible in early-October 2025 and mid-January 2026. Breakouts above local range highs were followed by rapid pullbacks, reinforcing the idea that liquidity above resistance levels has been used primarily as an exit point for sellers. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,127. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is testing the $70,000 level after briefly surging toward $74,000, as the market attempts to stabilize following a volatile period marked by geopolitical uncertainty and rapid price swings. While the recent rally helped restore short-term momentum, analysts are closely monitoring on-chain data to determine whether the move reflects a broader shift in market structure or simply a temporary recovery within an ongoing consolidation phase. Related Reading: The $73,000 Test: Crowded Shorts And Negative Funding Fueled Bitcoin’s 15% Recovery According to top analyst Axel Adler, recent exchange flow data reveals a notable development that could signal underlying accumulation. An unusually large Bitcoin outflow was recorded this week, with approximately 31,900 BTC leaving exchanges in a single day. Historically, events of this magnitude have often been associated with large-scale transfers into cold storage, suggesting that some market participants may be moving coins off trading platforms for longer-term holding. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin netflows from exchanges have remained consistently negative. Daily outflows included roughly 2,867 BTC on February 27, 1,205 BTC on February 28, 251 BTC on March 1, 6,129 BTC on March 2, 1,819 BTC on March 3, a sharp 31,900 BTC on March 4, and 3,478 BTC on March 5. In total, approximately 47,700 BTC exited exchanges during the week, one of the largest weekly outflow figures observed over the past year. Stablecoin Flows Reveal Liquidity Deployment Into Bitcoin The report also examines stablecoin activity across exchanges, highlighting an important shift in liquidity dynamics during early March. Data from the All Stablecoins (ERC20) Exchange Netflow metric tracks the daily net movement of stablecoins across trading platforms and provides insight into how capital flows into and out of the crypto market. For most of 2025, stablecoin netflows displayed a largely neutral pattern, characterized by alternating inflows and outflows without a sustained directional trend. Several notable spikes occurred during the year, including inflows of roughly $2.7 billion in July and approximately $2.4 billion in September. However, a more significant regime shift emerged in early March 2026. Related Reading: The $1.35 Floor: How Extreme Negative Funding Is Priming XRP For A High-Velocity Trend Reversal At that time, the chart recorded a large stablecoin inflow of about $1.1 billion entering exchanges. Within just a few days, the trend reversed, with netflow falling to around -$37.5 million. While the current outflow is not extreme relative to historical swings, the rapid transition from inflow to outflow suggests that incoming liquidity was quickly deployed. According to the analysis, this movement likely connects directly to the anomalous Bitcoin outflow observed on March 4. The sequence suggests that stablecoins were first deposited onto exchanges, converted into Bitcoin through spot purchases, and then withdrawn into cold storage. Large-scale accumulators trigger this behavior, buying Bitcoin on exchanges and immediately transferring it to long-term custody. Bitcoin Tests Key Level Around $70K The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating near the $70,000 level after a sharp recovery from the late-February lows around $63,000. Following the geopolitical-driven selloff, BTC entered a sideways structure for several weeks before breaking higher in early March and briefly reaching the $74,000 region. This move pushed the price above the short-term moving averages, signaling improving momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the confluence of several technical levels near $70K. The price has pulled back from the recent local high and is now hovering around the descending 200-period moving average, which is acting as immediate resistance. The 50-period and 100-period moving averages are slightly below the current price, forming a short-term support cluster in the $68,000–$69,000 range. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin From a structural perspective, the recent breakout shifted the market from a short-term downtrend into a consolidation phase with slightly higher lows. However, the rejection near $74,000 indicates that bullish momentum still faces overhead pressure. If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $69K support zone, the market could attempt another push toward the $73K–$74K resistance area. A decisive break above that region would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Conversely, losing the $68K support cluster could trigger another retest of the $65K–$66K range where strong buying previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Exhausted sellers may be giving Bitcoin some breathing room — but analysts say that’s a long way from a recovery. Related Reading: SEC Vs. Justin Sun Case Ends In $10M Settlement, Traders Eye TRX Price Reaction US Buyers Return, Pushing Prices Off Multi-Week Lows Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium — a measure of US-based buying demand — has flipped from its most negative readings in early February to its highest point since October. That shift helped carry Bitcoin to a one-month high of $74,000 on Thursday, briefly touching the 50-day exponential moving average. It didn’t last. By Friday morning, the price had dropped more than $3,000, sliding back below $71,000 as momentum faded almost as fast as it built. The rally came alongside a wave of ETF inflows and what Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, called “renewed risk appetite.” But even as buyers stepped in, the broader conditions hadn’t changed. Ruck said that the advance “quickly faced headwinds,” with macro uncertainty and softer economic signals pulling the market back down. Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally. Our Bull Score Index remains at 10/100, deep in bearish territory. The current move is likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase. pic.twitter.com/bh4O6jQPD6 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 5, 2026 Bear Market Indicators Remain At Historic Lows CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index — a composite reading of Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental health — sits at just 10 out of 100. That places it, by the firm’s own assessment, deep in negative territory. Reports from the firm say the number hasn’t moved despite the recent price action. “Even after the recent price rally, fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” CryptoQuant stated Thursday. The firm was blunt about what the brief climb likely represents: a short-term release of pressure, not a turning point. Unrealized losses among traders and long-term holders had reached levels last seen in July 2022 before the recent easing. That kind of exhaustion can slow a slide without reversing it. One signal pointing to easing pressure emerged Friday, when analysts said market momentum appears to be approaching a “critical shift.” According to their assessment, Bitcoin may be moving out of a phase marked by peak negative momentum — a stage that has often preceded broader changes in market direction. What follows that shift, and how quickly it unfolds, remains uncertain. Related Reading: Solana Stablecoins Hit $650 Billion In Monthly Transactions Macro Headwinds Keep A Lid On Any Optimism February nonfarm payrolls data, expected to show a slowdown, loomed as an added weight on sentiment. Analysts pointed to those “softer macro signals” as a reason cryptocurrencies remain open to fresh downside. Liquidity conditions had been supportive enough to spark the relief move, but not strong enough to sustain it. Bitcoin’s brief climb above $74,000 drew attention. The pullback drew more. With the Bull Score Index anchored near the floor and macro conditions still unsettled, analysts are watching for whether US buying demand holds — or fades just like the rally did. Featured image from Defenders of Wildlife, chart from TradingView
Data of the Bitcoin URPD shows a supply chasm exists between $72,000 and $81,000, potentially making resistance in the region relatively light. Bitcoin URPD Signals Air Gap Until $81,000 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how Bitcoin support and resistance levels are looking from the perspective of the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This indicator tells us about the amount of supply that was last transacted or purchased at the various price levels that BTC has visited in its history. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs See 14-Day Netflows Surge: Demand Returning? Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the URPD for Bitcoin as it currently stands. From the graph, it’s visible that the levels between $60,000 and $70,000 hold the cost basis of a notable amount of the supply. The $67,000 mark, in particular, has a huge value on the URPD. Earlier, the bearish price action had meant that Bitcoin slipped all the way to the $60,000 level. What had followed the decline was a consolidation period in the region below $70,000. As the price moved sideways here and trading occurred, supply saw repricing into levels falling inside the range, which is potentially why the region is now looking so dense on the URPD. This week, Bitcoin has finally seen a breakout above $70,000, meaning that it’s now past the dense zone. As is apparent from the chart, the nearby levels in the up direction only hold a relatively small share of the supply. Generally, when the market mood is bearish, investors in loss can react to surges to their acquisition level by exiting the market. They may do so fearing that the price rally is only temporary and that they could fall underwater again. Due to this, large levels of the URPD that are situated above the spot price can act as potential centers of resistance in the future. Since the $72,000 to $81,000 price range is relatively thin with supply right now, it may not provide too much resistance to Bitcoin. As the analyst explains, “if momentum builds, there is open air in that range.” For momentum to build, the support levels below might have to hold first. Just like how large supply zones above can provide resistance, those below can act as support cushions instead. This happens as investors accumulate more to defend their acquisition level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surge To $74,000 Fueled By US Institutions, Coinbase Premium Signals As the Bitcoin market sentiment has been quite bearish recently, it remains to be seen whether dips into the supply cluster at $70,000 and below will be met with buying. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $70,500, up 4% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s recent break above $70,000 is leading to questions of whether this is the start of a new impulsive leg higher or just another stop in a longer bottoming process. Crypto analyst CrypFlow, posting on X, laid out a technical case for why Bitcoin may be in the early stages of forming a major cycle bottom and why October 2026 could mark the launchpad for the next full-scale bull run. The analysis is based on multi-year trendlines, cycle behavior, and the Stochastic RSI indicator. Bitcoin Is Respecting Trendline That Has Held Since 2018 Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the monthly timeframe shows that the leading cryptocurrency’s price action is still respecting a multi-year trendline that has quietly shaped Bitcoin’s biggest cycle lows. That ascending trendline connects the 2018 cycle bottom with the 2022 bottom and now appears to be acting as support again in 2026. Bitcoin’s current position is now sitting right on top of that structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Flashed Death Cross That Has Led To Previous Bottoms, But What’s The Target? CrypFlow also pointed to a major horizontal zone that previously acted as resistance around the 2021 cycle top. That old ceiling around $69,000 is now being tested as support in the current price action. That kind of role reversal is very important for Bitcoin’s price action, because it shows the cryptocurrency may be trying to build a base at the intersection of that old resistance band and the rising trendline. If Bitcoin manages to stay above the current zone near $69,000 without falling to the $50,000 region, it would mirror the structure seen at the 2022 bottom. That low formed at a similar confluence where the rising trendline met the previous cycle’s resistance from the 2017 peak. Timeline For A New Bull Run Price levels get all the attention. Time gets almost none, and according to CrypFlow, that is precisely where most people are getting this cycle wrong. The analyst pointed to the Stochastic RSI to track how long this indicator has spent below the zero line during each major bear market cycle, and the historical pattern is striking in its consistency. Related Reading: Analyst Says It’s Time For Bitcoin, But What’s Important About $58,000? In the 2018/2019 cycle, the Stochastic RSI spent approximately 365 days below zero before Bitcoin mounted its real reversal and the next bull market began. The same held true in the 2022/2023 bear market cycle, where Bitcoin spent roughly one full year below zero before the sustained recovery kicked in. This cycle, however, Bitcoin’s Stochastic RSI has only been below zero for around 120 days. Putting it all together, this opens up a scenario where Bitcoin forms a double bottom later this year, likely around October 2026, before the next major bull run begins. This doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is about to crash further. What it does suggest, according to CrypFlow, is that the price action hasn’t completed the slow, grinding work that true cycle bottoms are built on. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing where the next major price reactions could occur. A liquidation map tracking leverage positions on the Binance BTC/USDT perpetual market highlights clusters of highly leveraged trades positioned above the current market price. This arrangement provides clues about how the next Bitcoin price move could unfold, how much short traders can be liquidated in the next sweep, and what could probably happen after. Massive Short Liquidation Wall Sits Around $71,800 Bitcoin has spent the past 24 to 48 hours trading above $70,000, offering an early glimpse into how price action may unfold for the leading cryptocurrency throughout March. Interestingly, technical analysis of the BTC liquidation heatmap on Binance, which was posted on X by crypto analyst Sherlock, shows clusters of highly leveraged trades positioned just above the current market price. This is notable to watch, as clusters often influence price direction because markets tend to move toward zones where large volumes of forced liquidations can occur. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The most prominent liquidity target revealed by the chart is around $71,800, where a dense concentration of short liquidations has formed. This area is dominated by extremely high leverage positions, particularly 50x and 100x leverage, which shows that many Bitcoin traders are heavily positioned on the assumption that Bitcoin will fail to reclaim above $72,000. As shown in the Coinglass liquidation chart below, the vertical liquidation bars around $71,000 to $72,000 are significantly larger compared to surrounding levels. This shows a buildup of short positions that would be forced to buy back Bitcoin if the market rises into that zone. A move to that level could therefore lead to a chain reaction of liquidations, which in turn would contribute to a move upward as short positions are closed. BTC/USDT Liquidation Map. Source: @Sherlockwhale On X What Happens After The Liquidity Sweep? After the $71,800 level, the structure of the liquidation map changes noticeably. The bars on the chart become thinner across the $72,000 to $76,000 range, and the cumulative liquidation curve flattens. This means that once the initial wave of short liquidations is triggered, there may not be enough additional liquidation fuel to sustain a prolonged rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 According to Sherlock, that forced buying from liquidated shorts could carry Bitcoin from $71,800 to $75,000, but extending the rally beyond that point would need real buyers and organic demand. Not forced buying. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,500. The leading cryptocurrency faced sustained downward pressure throughout most of February, although signs of gradual spot accumulation are beginning to appear, and this could support a steady rally in March. If new buyers fail to support the price after liquidity at $76,000 is taken, then the price could quickly lose upward momentum. In that case, the price could fall straight back below $60,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s latest rally has injected fresh optimism into the market, but the analyst believes the move may be setting the stage for a critical turning point rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. After weeks of volatility and uneven momentum, BTC has climbed toward key resistance levels, prompting debate over whether the current surge reflects strength or a temporary rebound within a broader market structure. Is Bitcoin Repeating A Classic Market Structure Pattern? The reason Bitcoin is simply rallying at the current range is to set what is likely the macro lower high. Crypto analyst Ardi pointed out on X that this area was the longest consolidation range of the entire 2021-2025 bull run, which lasted roughly 259 days between March and November 2024. During that extended sideways phase, more value was transacted, more positions were built, and more liquidity was exchanged in that range than at any other level on the chart over the four-year cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shift: 212,000 BTC Moves Into Long-Term Holder Hands, Price Nearing A Bounce? When the price pulls back into a zone with that kind of history where months of market participants have occurred, reactions are rarely insignificant. The liquidity created during nearly nine months of accumulation does not simply disappear once the market moves higher. Instead, all the liquidity is sitting in that area. From a structural perspective, Ardi argues that this region was always the most logical destination for a macro pullback, followed by a short-term rally. This zone is where the market built its foundation for BTC to surge toward the $126,000 region, marking it a key technical level that the market would not easily break through on its first attempt. How Consolidation Could Prepare The Next Expansion The market may be misreading the current setup of Bitcoin, and many traders expect price action to follow a pattern similar to the 2022 downturn. Analyst Bobby A has highlighted that the true “pain trade” could unfold in the opposite direction. Instead of dropping lower, BTC could stage a strong leg upward and quickly push the price back toward the low six-figure region. Such a move would leave a large portion of the market sidelined and waiting for lower prices that will never arrive. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Bobby A suggested that from the surge, BTC could transition into a multi-month consolidation phase, ranging between $80,000 and $100,000. This kind of sideways structure would allow momentum to reset while sentiment remains divided. However, by the time the consolidation range matures, many traders might once again position themselves for a major breakdown below the January lows, which may ultimately never materialize. Regardless of how the path unfolds, there is a strong possibility that BTC’s next upward move may have already begun. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Officials say the Vancouver Charter limits city reserves to government debt, bank instruments and other traditional assets.
Data shows the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen their 14-day netflow trend climb into the positive territory, ending a period of sustained outflows. Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow Has Been Rising Recently As highlighted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode in a new post on X, the Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen their 14-day netflow trend climb higher recently. “Spot ETFs” refer to investment vehicles that allow investors to gain indirect exposure to an underlying asset’s price movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surge To $74,000 Fueled By US Institutions, Coinbase Premium Signals In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin back in January 2024. Thus, these funds have now been active for more than two years. Since spot ETFs trade on traditional markets, they provide for an off-chain route into BTC. Whenever a trader invests into them, the fund buys the on-chain tokens and custodies them on their behalf. This convenience of the vehicles has made them a popular mode of investment among the more traditional investors, like institutional entities. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the 14-day netflow trend for the Bitcoin spot ETFs over their history so far: As displayed in the above graph, the 14-day Bitcoin spot ETF netflow trend has witnessed a sharp rise into the positive territory recently. Note that Glassnode defines “netflow” as the 30-day change in the combined holdings of the US-based funds. Earlier, the netflow trend had dropped into the negative territory, implying outflows were dominating the market. Not only that, the negative netflows had been persistent, so there was consistent selling pressure coming from ETF users. With the recent surge in the metric, however, the trend appears to have flipped. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has witnessed a continuation to the growth as the Bitcoin price has rallied above the $70,000 level. “Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging,” noted Glassnode. It now remains to be seen whether spot ETFs will follow this trajectory in the near future or if another cooldown will happen. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Bottoms Between These MVRV Levels—Where Are They Now? In some other news, the Binance Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has shot up recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. The Net Taker Volume is an indicator that keeps track of the difference between the taker buy and taker sell volumes on a given exchange (which, in the current case, is Binance). As is visible in the above graph, the 7-hour moving average (MA) of the Binance Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has seen a notable positive spike close to $100 million, suggesting taker buy volume has outpaced the taker sell one. “The current pump is mirroring the moves from Nov 7 and Nov 25,” said Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $71,000, up more than 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
XRP has climbed back above the $1.40 mark this week, a level that previously acted as resistance, but analysts warn that the rally does not eliminate the risk of a deeper pullback. The cryptocurrency’s most critical support zone at $1.30 remains under pressure, and broader market forces—particularly Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action—could determine what happens next. XRP Locked Between $1.30 Support And $1.50 Resistance In a recent report, analyst Sam Daodu described $1.30 as the most heavily tested support level for XRP so far in 2026. Since February, the token has repeatedly slipped into the low $1.30 range, only to find buyers stepping in before a decisive breakdown could occur. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $73,000, Expert Explains Why The Rally Isn’t Over Yet According to Daodu, a key reason XRP has continued to defend this area is that it is slightly lower, around $1.27. On-chain cost basis data indicates that roughly 443 million XRP were accumulated at that price level. As the market approaches this entry point, many of these holders have added to their positions, creating buying pressure that has consistently pushed the price back above $1.30. For now, Daodu sees XRP trading within a clearly defined range, with $1.30 acting as the floor and $1.50 serving as resistance. The analyst said a meaningful shift in trend would require a breakout beyond one of those levels, and the direction of that move will likely depend on external catalysts. Bitcoin And Middle East Tensions As Key Threats Bitcoin stands out as the most significant variable. XRP and BTC are currently moving in close alignment, with a reported correlation of 0.84. Historically, XRP has tended to magnify Bitcoin’s price swings by roughly 1.8 times. In practical terms, that means a 10% decline in Bitcoin could translate into an 18% drop for XRP. Daodu cautions that if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 again, XRP would likely follow, regardless of the token’s individual fundamentals or technical structure. Geopolitical factors are also contributing to market fragility. Rising tensions in the Middle East have already sparked risk-off sentiment across the crypto market in early March. Should the situation worsen, Daodu said investors could reduce exposure to more speculative assets first, placing additional pressure on altcoins such as XRP. BTC As The Key To Break $1.50? On the upside, a sustained breakout above $1.50 would likely require more than just stability in Bitcoin. Historically, altcoins gain momentum when Bitcoin advances decisively, drawing fresh capital into the broader market. Daodu posits that XRP is no exception; a strong upward move in BTC could provide the tailwind needed for the altcoin to attempt surpass higher resistance levels. Related Reading: Crypto Treasury Inflows Slide To October 2024 Levels—What Happened? Between $1.58 and $1.60 lies a substantial supply zone. Approximately 2 billion XRP were purchased at those levels, leaving many holders underwater for months. As the price approaches that range, investors seeking to exit at breakeven could generate heavy selling pressure, the analyst reported. Clearing $1.50 would signal renewed strength, but absorbing supply closer to $1.60 may prove to be the more difficult challenge. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.41, marking a 3% loss over the previous 24 hours. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is regaining strength after pushing back above the $70,000 level, a move that has helped restore a degree of bullish sentiment following weeks of heightened volatility. The recovery comes after a turbulent period for global markets, during which geopolitical developments and macro uncertainty triggered sharp swings in price action across risk assets. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin According to a recent report from CryptoQuant by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin experienced notable volatility between late January and early March 2026. During this period, the asset briefly fell into the mid-$60,000 range before staging a sharp rebound in early March that lifted prices back toward the $73,000 area. The report notes that the initial decline was largely triggered by geopolitical developments. On February 28, reports of a US–Israel military strike on Iran escalated tensions across the Middle East, injecting significant uncertainty into global markets. As risk sentiment deteriorated, Bitcoin quickly dropped to roughly $63,000 on February 29. However, the sell-off proved short-lived. Market conditions stabilized within days, and by March 2 Bitcoin had already recovered to around the $70,000 level. Momentum accelerated shortly afterward, as renewed buying pressure between March 4 and March 5 pushed BTC above $73,000, signaling a potential shift in short-term sentiment as investors reassess the broader market environment. ETF Inflows And Short Covering Fuel Bitcoin’s Rebound The CryptoQuant report further explains that renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs played a major role in driving the recent rebound. In early March, several hundred million dollars flowed into these investment vehicles, providing direct support to spot market demand. On March 4 alone, ETF inflows exceeded $200 million, highlighting a resurgence in institutional participation after a period of weaker activity. Derivatives markets also contributed significantly to the rally. Open Interest increased sharply while funding rates shifted into negative territory, indicating that many traders had positioned aggressively on the short side. As Bitcoin’s price began to rise, these crowded short positions were forced to unwind, triggering waves of short liquidations that amplified upward momentum through short covering. On-chain indicators present a more nuanced picture. The report notes that some bearish signals remain, including the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio staying below 1.0 and a growing share of coins currently held at unrealized losses. At the same time, constructive developments are emerging beneath the surface. One example is the Coinbase Premium Index, which recently returned to positive territory after an extended period of negative readings. This shift suggests that demand from US-based investors is beginning to recover. The move toward $73,000 appears to be driven primarily by a combination of ETF inflows and short-covering in derivatives. Related Reading: The $11,000 Deficit: Why the Record $8.9B Bitcoin ETF Drawdown Is Paralyzing Wall Street’s BTC Appetite Bitcoin Breaks Above Key Resistance As Momentum Strengthens The chart shows Bitcoin trading near $73,100 after a strong upward move that pushed the price decisively above the $70,000 level. This breakout follows several weeks of consolidation between roughly $64,000 and $69,000, where the market repeatedly tested both support and resistance without establishing a clear direction. From a technical perspective, the recent rally allowed Bitcoin to reclaim its short-term moving averages, including the 50-period and 100-period lines, which had previously acted as resistance during the consolidation phase. The ability to break above these levels suggests a shift in short-term momentum as buyers regain control of the market. Related Reading: Surpassing FTX-Era Lows: 38% Of Altcoins Hit Record Lows As Liquidity Abandons The Crypto Fringe Price is now approaching the 200-period moving average, which sits slightly above the current level and represents a key technical barrier near the $74,000 region. This level could act as the next resistance zone, as longer-term participants often use it as a reference for trend confirmation. Volume has also increased during the breakout, indicating stronger participation as the market moves higher. The sharp upward candles reflect aggressive buying pressure, which aligns with the short-covering dynamics observed in derivatives markets. If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above $70,000, the breakout could establish this level as a new support zone. However, failure to maintain this structure could lead to another retest of the $68,000–$69,000 region before the market attempts a new directional move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a steady increase above $70,500 and $72,500. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase above $72,500. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $70,000 zone. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $69,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $70,000 and $69,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Starts Downside Correction Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $68,500 zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $70,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $72,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $74,000. A high was formed at $74,062, and the price recently started a downside correction. There was a move below $72,000 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66,164 swing low to the $74,062 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $69,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,500 level. A close above the $72,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66,164 swing low to the $74,062 high. The first major support is near the $69,000 level. The next support is now near the $68,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $68,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $66,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $70,000, followed by $69,000. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $72,500.
Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger is pushing back on a comparison that has taken hold across desks since strikes involving Iran began: that markets are replaying the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, with crypto and Bitcoin in particular tracing an uncomfortably familiar pattern. Yes, the setups rhyme, Krüger wrote in a March 4 Substack note. But he argues the analogy breaks where it matters for Bitcoin: monetary policy and the persistence of the energy shock. “Markets are panicking. Everyone sees 2022 again. The chart setups look almost identical and the energy shock is real,” he wrote. “But the comparison falls apart under scrutiny. The macro is different, and the oil disruption is transitory.” What Is Crucial For Bitcoin Now Krüger’s starting point is historical rather than crypto-specific: wars and kinetic conflicts have often created “buying opportunities,” even when the initial impulse is risk-off. The reason 2022 became so toxic for risk, he says, wasn’t the invasion itself, it was what came after. In 2022, Bitcoin and overall risk assets bottomed on the day Russia invaded Ukraine (Feb. 24), then bounced hard, then rolled over by late March as markets resumed sliding. The war was the catalyst, not the engine. The engine was a Federal Reserve forced into an aggressive hiking cycle with inflation already running hot, and an oil spike that worsened the inflation problem. Krüger’s core claim is that 2026 does not have the same policy backdrop. In 2022, the Fed was “behind the curve” with year-over-year inflation at 7.9% and the real Fed Funds rate around -7.5% when war broke out. Today, he says the Fed is in “wait-and-see mode,” with inflation trending lower and real rates around +1.2%. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin He frames the policy asymmetry in blunt terms: “Even if the oil spike pushes headline inflation temporarily higher, the Fed has room to look through it. At +1.2% real rates, they don’t need to tighten into a supply shock. In 2022 they had no choice — at -7.5% they were catastrophically behind. That’s the difference that matters for risk assets.” Krüger points to recent Fed communication as consistent with that stance. John Williams said oil would affect the “near-term inflation outlook” but that persistence mattered: “code for: we’re not moving unless this lasts,” Krüger wrote, while noting the US is less oil-dependent than past decades. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also argued the US is “in a very different position than when Russia invaded Ukraine.” Since the strikes began, Krüger noted, four Fed officials have spoken publicly without changing their outlook; Williams described the market reaction as “muted,” Neel Kashkari said it’s “too soon to know” and still sees one to two cuts this year if inflation cools, and hawk Beth Hammack called policy “neutral” while urging an extended pause. The second pillar of Krüger’s argument is that the oil disruption in 2026 is more likely to be temporary than the structural break of 2022. Then, Europe lost access to roughly 4.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude and refined products and sanctions made that disruption effectively permanent; Brent surged near $130 on March 8 and didn’t sustainably break below $90 until late August. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads This time, he argues, Iran’s own barrels are not the key variable. Iran produced roughly 3.3 million bpd and exported about 1.9 million bpd before the strikes, mostly to China through shadow channels at an $11–$12 discount to Brent, with most of its tanker fleet already sanctioned, meaning “additional sanctions on Iran post-war would change nothing.” The market’s focus, instead, is the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 14 million bpd transits — about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and where traffic has “dropped almost to a standstill.” Krüger says the futures curve is doing the real talking. In 2022, the front month repriced about +50% and the tenth contract +29%, signaling a long repair job. In 2026, he estimates the front month is up +32% but the tenth contract only +12%, “despite a shock affecting 4.4x more barrels,” implying traders see an expiration date to the disruption rather than a rewiring of supply chains. Tail Risk Is The Curve’s “Tell” Krüger is explicit about what could turn a “transitory” shock into a 2022-style regime shift: direct, repeated hits that take refining capacity or LNG offline for months. Iran has already struck Ras Tanura, Fujairah, and Qatari LNG facilities, he wrote, mostly with debris from intercepted drones but he sees an escalation pattern toward energy infrastructure, with “tens of thousands of drones in reserve.” “If direct hits start landing on refining capacity — SAMREF, Jebel Ali, Jubail — that is lost production that does not come back with a ceasefire. Refineries take months to repair,” he wrote. “And the risk is no longer limited to oil. This is becoming a products and gas crisis, not just a crude problem.” Krüger added that QatarEnergy has shut down LNG output at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing roughly a fifth of global LNG export capacity. For Bitcoin, the takeaway is less about pattern-matching the chart and more about watching whether the macro “off-switch” remains credible. Krüger’s rule of thumb is simple: if the back end of the curve starts repricing, for example, if that tenth contract moves from roughly +12% toward +25%, the market is signaling the shock is turning structural. “But as of today,” he wrote, “the curve hasn’t blinked. Don’t confuse a transitory geopolitical shock (2026) with a major liquidity crisis (2022).” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is consolidating near a crucial support band, with $77,000 emerging as the key level to watch. A breakout above it could signal bullish momentum and a trend reversal, while failure to hold may keep Bitcoin in a corrective phase or push it lower. Bitcoin Re-Approaches Critical High-Timeframe Support After 0.786 Fibonacci Deviation Crypto analyst Luca highlighted that Bitcoin recently dipped below the high-timeframe support range marked in purple, briefly deviating toward the 0.786 Fibonacci point of interest around $65,900. Following that move, the price is now approaching the previously lost high-timeframe support zone, which coincides with the early April 2025 bottoming structure. This region also overlaps with the 3-day Bull Market Support Band, an area that has served as a strong reversal point several times over the past few months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coiling At Key Support — Major Move Brewing Luca explained that this confluence of technical levels is the reason he has not yet reduced his hedge positions. Instead, he prefers to remain cautious until the market provides clearer confirmation of strength. According to Luca, such confirmation would likely come from Bitcoin reclaiming the lost support range or breaking above the Bull Market Support Band. Until that happens, the analyst warns that the current approach to this zone could still result in a rejection, meaning the move might represent a temporary bounce rather than a confirmed recovery. Luca also emphasized that traders should focus more on protecting capital rather than chasing profits at this stage. Only once clear strength appears, and the probability shifts toward a sustained upside continuation, would it make sense to adopt a more aggressive bullish stance. $77,000 Emerges As The Critical Confirmation Level For BTC According to Luca, the key confirmation level he is watching right now sits around $77,000. A decisive breakout above that level would signal stronger market momentum. Thus, Luca plans to gradually scale out of his hedge positions and rotate that capital back into his spot holdings, anticipating a more sustainable move to the upside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Slumps 5%, Bearish Momentum Returns With Force Luca also noted that attempting to squeeze out an extra 10–15% gain at current levels may not be the best risk decision. Instead of aggressively chasing short-term profits, he prefers to wait for a clear confirmation that the market structure is shifting in favor of the bulls. He added that the potential upside could be significantly larger if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the $77,000 level. However, exiting hedge positions too early could expose traders to the risk of a bullish fakeout, where the price briefly moves higher before resuming its downward trend. Because of that possibility, Luca maintains a cautious stance until stronger confirmation appears. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has just flashed a ‘Death Cross,’ a technical signal that has historically preceded major market bottoms. Market analyst CrypFlow, who identified the chart pattern, notes that the current setup is unfolding almost identically to the 2022 bear market cycle. In his analysis, he outlines a potential price target for a Bitcoin bottom and shares what history suggests could come next if the death cross follows the same trajectory as in previous cycles. Bitcoin Death Cross Signals More Downside CrypFlow shared his foreboding analysis on X, confirming a Death Cross on the three-day BTC chart that had previously signaled bear-market bottoms. The formation comes as Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure and market volatility, with investor sentiment down the drain and geopolitical tensions fueling more fear and panic, pushing holders to exit the market. Related Reading: Expert Trader Says Bitcoin Surge To $220,000 Is Coming, But This Will Happen First CrypFlow has stated that the current Death Cross formed against a backdrop of Bitcoin trading around $66,200 at the time of the analysis, with the figure well below the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $89,799 and the 200 SMA at $91,226. The massive gap between the price and both moving averages underscores how aggressively the market has deteriorated since Bitcoin’s cycle top above $126,000 in October 2025. The analyst draws a direct comparison between the current Death Cross and the 2022 bear market cycle, in which an identical Death Cross pattern preceded Bitcoin’s most devastating price crash to a final bottom. In that cycle, CrypFlow noted that the Death Cross formation came after reaching a peak above $66,000. Once Bitcoin reached this ATH level, it began trending downwards, forming a Death Cross, which eventually led to a final capitulation low one month later. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency experienced a Double Bottom after crashing again in 2023, with this final decline serving as the foundation for the next bull run. Analyst Shares BTC Bottom Target And Timeline The Death Cross pattern is widely recognized as a bearish warning sign, indicating more pain ahead for Bitcoin. Following the 2022 cycle, when the market bottomed roughly one month after the cross was confirmed, CrypFlow has identified March 29, 2026, as a critical window to watch for Bitcoin’s potential price floor this cycle. He suggests a possible target near $50,000, framing the projected one-month timeframe as a historically informed inflection point rather than a guaranteed outcome. Related Reading: Analyst Says It’s Time For Bitcoin, But What’s Important About $58,000? CrypFlow has outlined three distinct conditions it intends to monitor as that window approaches. The first is continued price weakness into late March, which could serve as a behavioral confirmation that the current cycle is mirroring past patterns. The second condition the analyst is watching for is evidence of seller exhaustion near the March 29 window. His third and perhaps most important condition is the reclaiming of key moving averages following any potential bottom. CrypFlow stressed that this reclaim should be viewed as confirmation of a completed bottom. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s market liquidity is poised to receive a significant boost as legacy financial giant Morgan Stanley moves toward offering its own BTC ETF option. The entry of such a major Wall Street institution into the BTC ETF space underscores growing confidence in BTC as an investable asset. It marks another major milestone in its march toward mainstream financial integration. How Morgan Stanley’s Entry Could Shift Supply-Demand Dynamics Morgan Stanley has officially entered the Bitcoin ETF race after submitting a new SEC filing for a spot BTC ETF. The filing names Coinbase and the Bank of New York (BNY) Mellon as custodian partners, with Coinbase Custody also playing a key role in safeguarding the underlying BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Leads Crypto Funds’ $1 Billion Rebound To End 5-Week Negative Streak An investor and blockchain researcher known as Anıl on X pointed out that when the first BTC ETFs were initially launched, a significant share of the inflows was effectively absorbing persistent selling pressure from Grayscale Investment. In other words, capital wasn’t entirely new, but BTC exchange was largely rotating from Grayscale’s product into other ETF vehicles. That dynamic had now faded because there is no longer a Grayscale-sized entity continuously offloading large amounts of BTC into the market. Anıl argues that initial inflows into Morgan Stanley’s ETF will represent real demand and fresh liquidity entering the market. Meanwhile, BNY Mellon and Coinbase Custody will serve as the custodians, with one of the providers again being Coinbase, which will also impact Coinbase Premium. Bitwise Channels ETF Momentum Into Developer Support The Bitwise Asset Management has donated $233,000 support open-source developers who help maintain and secure the Bitcoin network. According to Bitwise’s post on X, the contribution is part of the firm’s ongoing pledge to reinvest in the ecosystem through its Bitwise BTC ETF (BITB), which experienced notable growth over the past year. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 When BITB first launched, Bitwise committed to allocating 10% of the ETF’s gross profit annually toward supporting BTC open-source development. With this second annual donation, the firm says it is delivering on that same promise annually and reinvesting BITB’s growth directly back into the ecosystem that powers it. Bitwise emphasized that the funds will go to organizations focused on maintaining and improving the BTC protocol, and the donation will be distributed through three non-profit groups: BitcoinBlick, OpenSats, and the Human Rights Foundation Bitcoin Development Funds. The asset manager highlighted that the contribution is made possible by investors who align with this journey. However, Bitwise has described this donation as both a fulfillment of its commitment and a reflection of the trust placed in it by investors who believe in sustaining the open-source heart of BTC. Furthermore, as BITB continues to expand, so do its contributions to the developer ecosystem. The company described BTC as a transformative technology and said it intends to remain a responsible steward of the incredible ecosystem. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Real estate mogul Grant Cardone thinks he has an answer to what ails the crypto treasury industry — pair Bitcoin with rental income. Related Reading: US Should Act On Bitcoin, Not Just Praise It, Ex-Advisor To Trump Says His fund buys multifamily housing, collects rent, and channels the proceeds into additional Bitcoin purchases, giving investors exposure to property appreciation alongside the asset’s price swings. It is a model built for a market that no longer rewards passive accumulation. Companies Search For Ways To Put Bitcoin To Work That shift in thinking comes as the broader crypto treasury sector posts its weakest numbers in well over a year. Monthly inflows into digital asset treasury companies have fallen to roughly $555 million, according to data from DefiLlama — the lowest reading since October 2024. DAT inflows in February slowed to $555M, the lowest level since October 2024 pic.twitter.com/tJJqju0kXd — DefiLlama.com (@DefiLlama) March 2, 2026 At that point, just weeks before the US presidential election, inflows had cratered to around $32 million as investors waited out the uncertainty. What followed was a historic surge. After US President Donald Trump’s election victory and a sharp turn toward crypto-friendly regulation, monthly inflows rocketed past $12 billion. The sector looked unstoppable. It wasn’t. Inflows pulled back through most of 2025, stayed well below $10 billion per month, then dropped sharply again heading into 2026. A prolonged bear market has erased much of those post-election gains. Reports indicate crypto prices have retraced to levels last seen before the 2024 election pump, dragging treasury company valuations down with them and drying up fresh capital. The Crypto Warehouse Model Loses Its Appeal Patrick Ngan, chief investment officer at Zeta Network Group, said the old playbook is no longer enough. Companies that simply buy and hold Bitcoin — warehousing the asset with no active strategy — are at risk of being left behind. Those with real operating businesses generating cash flow will have an edge, he said. “Corporate Bitcoin treasuries now need to show they can actually use the asset, not just warehouse it,” Ngan said. The options for doing so are expanding. Treasury companies can stake crypto assets to earn rewards on proof-of-stake networks, run mining operations on proof-of-work chains, or put capital to work through decentralized lending platforms. Each approach turns a static balance sheet into something that generates returns independent of price movement. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% A New Blueprint Takes Shape Cardone’s hybrid model pushes that idea further. By anchoring a fund in physical real estate — an asset with built-in rental demand — he sidesteps the problem of relying entirely on Bitcoin appreciation. Tax advantages tied to real estate ownership sweeten the returns further. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap spiked as the asset rallied toward $74,000, a potential sign that the platform’s institutional users were backing the run. Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Gap Shot Up To $61 During The Rally In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest BTC rally and what could be behind it. “Several data points show aggressive institutional demand driving the breakout,” noted Maartunn. One such metric is the Coinbase Premium Gap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Bottoms Between These MVRV Levels—Where Are They Now? This indicator measures the difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). The metric’s value essentially tells us about the difference in buying/selling behaviors on the two cryptocurrency exchanges. Coinbase hosts an American-centric traffic, with institutional entities being among its main customers, while Binance is used by traders from around the globe. As such, when the Coinbase Premium Gap is positive, it can be a sign that the US-based institutions are applying a higher buying pressure (or lower selling pressure) than the world users. Earlier, the indicator had a notable red value, suggesting that the asset was trading at a discount on Coinbase, but recently, it has seen a shift into positive. From the above chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap saw a sharp increase alongside the latest BTC price rally, implying that accumulation on Coinbase drove the asset to a higher value than the global market. At the peak of this surge in the positive territory, the indicator hit a value of $61. “That means BTC traded $61 higher on Coinbase vs other exchanges, a strong signal of U.S. institutional buying pressure entering the market,” explained the analyst. Another factor that points toward institutional involvement in the rally is Hyblock data. As is visible in the graph below, Hyblock shows a rise in Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) orders from the $10,000 to $1 million cohort. A TWAP order is a trading algorithm that divides a large order into smaller pieces, executing them at regular time intervals. “TWAP orders are typically used by large players accumulating without moving the market too aggressively,” said Maartunn. The $10,000 to $1 million cohort purchased $750 million worth of Bitcoin via such orders alongside the rally. Related Reading: Altseason Mentions Hit Extreme Lows: Is Dogecoin About To Benefit? While institutions have shown demand, the analyst has warned of a risk brewing below the surface: the increasing amount of leverage in derivatives markets. As displayed in the chart, the Open Interest, an indicator tracking the total amount of derivatives positions, has rapidly gone up for both Bitcoin and the altcoins. “If supportive bids slow down, overleveraged positioning can unwind quickly, increasing volatility,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $72,600, up nearly 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor argued that Bitcoin’s inability to sustain the most aggressive upside forecasts is less about a broken long-term thesis and more about a credit-market bottleneck: a large share of Bitcoin wealth still can’t be financed cleanly inside the traditional banking system, pushing holders toward “shadow” venues where rehypothecation creates effective selling pressure. In a Feb. 27 interview with Coin Stories host Nathalie Brunell, Saylor said the market has matured in ways that naturally damp both upside and downside volatility as derivatives migrate “from offshore to onshore” and regulated US markets grow. But he placed the sharper brake on price in the plumbing of credit. Banks, he argued, are moving slowly to recognize Bitcoin as collateral, and that delay matters when the asset base is large. Saylor framed the current top-of-market structure as roughly “$2 trillion worth of Bitcoin,” with “probably $1.8 trillion held by retail investors or offshore investors” who “cannot access the traditional banking system.” The practical implication, he said, is that Bitcoin holders who want to unlock liquidity face a narrow menu compared with traditional equity portfolios. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads “If I posted $10 million of Apple stock with JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, I could take a $5 million loan at SOFR plus 50 basis points and I could spend it,” Saylor said. “But you can’t even post $10 million worth of Bitcoin with JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley right now. Therefore, you can’t take a loan. Therefore, you have to go to a shadow banking system. You have to go offshore.” That constraint, he argued, forces holders into behavior that mechanically caps upside. The “safe way” to monetize is simply to sell, which “damps the upside.” The next option is borrowing from a small pool of crypto lenders that don’t rehypothecate collateral, but Saylor described that market as both expensive and shallow—“a few billion dollars probably”—with rates he characterized as closer to “SOFR plus 400” or “plus 500 basis points,” rather than traditional prime-style spreads. He pointed to a newer channel, banks extending credit against spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), but described it as early, limited, and still costly versus conventional secured lending. The most controversial pathway, Saylor said, is where the cheapest funding appears: counterparties offering low-rate Bitcoin-backed credit in exchange for control of the collateral. “I’ve had people offer me Bitcoin-backed credit at 1% or 0%,” he said, before emphasizing the trade-off. “There’s always the catch […] they want me to transfer the Bitcoin to them so they can rehypothecate it.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surges Back Above $71,000: Key Reasons Explained Saylor then tied rehypothecation directly to spot-market suppression, arguing that collateral handed to intermediaries can be effectively “sold” multiple times through reuse. “So, if you have $10 million […] you can get a 3 or 4% loan, but then it gets rehypothecated,” he said. “So, your $10 million of Bitcoin gets sold once, gets sold twice, gets sold three times […] You might actually create $30 or $40 million worth of selling because the Bitcoin that you posted […] rehypothecated it three times.” Michael Saylor: Shadow banking “rehypothecation” suppresses Bitcoin price On February 27, 2026, in an interview with Natalie Brunell, Michael Saylor discussed why Bitcoin failed to surpass $126,000. He suggested that the exclusion of Bitcoin from traditional banks like JP… pic.twitter.com/ODpOEvhi2j — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 4, 2026 In his view, the missing piece is a large, regulated, non-rehypothecating credit system for Bitcoin—one that looks more like mainstream securities financing. “What’s holding down the price? I think what holds down the price of the asset is the lack of a fully formed nonrehypothecating credit system,” he said, adding that rehypothecation “damps the vol” and can amplify moves on both sides through leveraged positioning. Saylor’s bottom line was timing, not thesis: if banks take “four years, 5 years, 6 years” to “bank it” in the full sense, then Bitcoin’s price discovery will continue to be shaped by a shadow-credit workaround that can manufacture synthetic supply. If and when conventional credit rails mature around Bitcoin collateral without aggressive rehypothecation, he suggested, the market may rely less on forced selling and more on ordinary secured borrowing, potentially changing the ceiling on upside cycles. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $72,236. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis, outlining reasons why the Bitcoin price has not yet reached a cycle bottom. Using a charting framework called the Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycles Theory, the analyst argues that while a short-term bounce is currently playing out, the broader bear market still has significant time and more downsides ahead before reaching a final price floor. Why The Bitcoin Price Has Not Hit A Bottom Yet According to market expert Crypto Con on X, the recent bounce that saw Bitcoin surge above $71,000 after its first major low under $64,000 is a normal reaction and does not indicate that the Bitcoin bear market has ended. The analyst stated that everything is unfolding exactly as expected, both in timing and price, in line with the Halving Cycles Theory. He further noted that the price sitting precisely at the first low of the Bear Bands indicator actually reinforces his bearish case for Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Sharing a detailed price chart, Crypto Con draws on Bitcoin’s full price history dating back to 2011, mapping out recurring bear market sequences that have played out across every major cycle. Each of those cycles followed a consistent three-stage structure, moving through a first low, a second low, and a final cycle bottom before any sustained recovery took hold. Based on this sequence, Crypto Con argues that the Bitcoin market has not yet reached a bottom but could be heading towards one soon. The Bear Bands framework on the chart places Bitcoin’s first low at around $64,000, a level it already achieved this February. The second low for the current cycle is projected near $44,500, indicating that the world’s largest cryptocurrency still has considerable downside ahead before the next major support is even tested. Below this level, Crypto Con has set BTC’s cycle bottom around $28,500, marking the final and deepest projected level before a genuine reversal could be considered. With current prices currently holding above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would represent a staggering decline of more than 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that the bear market is far from over. Expected Timeline For A BTC Bear Bottom Beyond bearish price targets, the bottom timeline laid out in Crypto Con’s analysis presents a sobering outlook for investors and traders hoping for a quick recovery. The analyst has projected that the second low around $44,500 is not expected for at least another five months from the time of his post. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 This places Bitcoin’s next major price crash roughly in the August to October 2026 window, as indicated on the chart. If this timeline plays out, it would push any hope of a final bottom well beyond mid-2026. If the projected cycle bottom at $28,500 plays out, Crypto Con expects it to arrive no earlier than three months after the second low. That points toward a November 2026 to January 2027 timeframe as the earliest window in which Bitcoin could realistically find its true price floor before it begins building toward a recovery. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com