THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Crypto analyst Kaz has called the local Bitcoin top, stating that the leading crypto has little room to the upside. The analyst also explained why BTC is now likely to drop below the psychological $60,000 level, which would mark a new low for the crypto asset.  Bitcoin Top About To Form As Price Eyes Drop Below $60,000 In an X post, Kaz said Bitcoin is very close to a local top, despite market participants predicting a sustained rally to $90,000. He noted that the last local top formed around $97,000, when people were calling for a rally to $108,000, but it did not happen. Instead, BTC was rejected from the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) and recorded a massive decline.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68,000 Again Kaz stated that the same price action is playing out again, with Bitcoin very close to the local top and a daily FVG in place. The analyst predicted that BTC might be rejected from the daily FVG and form a local top between $80,000 and $82,000. He also mentioned that the final range won’t dump in an instant but would rather be a slow bleed.  The analyst further pointed to the first week of May as when the Bitcoin top could form. Commenting on the current price action, he noted that BTC has only swept the highs and has formed equal lows on the lower timeframe, which is very likely to get swept. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could drop as low as $56,000 on the next move lower. Meanwhile, Kaz revealed that he will be adding to his short if BTC sweeps the $80,000 range.  BTC No Longer In A Bear Flag In an X post, crypto analyst Colin stated that Bitcoin remains in the yellow channel, with $81,000 as resistance at the upper boundary. The analyst noted that a break above this upper boundary would be bullish while a break below the lower boundary at $72,000 would be bearish. He added that if BTC continues to gradually climb within the channel, it will bump into overhead resistance between $80,000 and $86,000.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY Colin warned that this is where Bitcoin will struggle to sustain its upward momentum and will likely find a local top, completing the relief rally. He explained that this range is highly likely to be a rejection point for BTC, as there is a convergence of overhead resistance levels, the 200-day moving average (MA), and the upper range of the channel. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could drop to around $66,000 when this relief rally is over.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,600, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin’s latest drawdown has pushed the market into a zone that has historically aligned with accumulation phases, even as its momentum signal remains negative and broader crypto risk appetite stays narrow. In its Signals Report Q2 2026, Fidelity’s research team described a market still working through a corrective phase rather than entering a broad-based expansion. Bitcoin remains the dominant source of unrealized profitability across the digital asset complex, while other major assets continue to stabilize after a sharp reset in Q1. Fidelity Says Bitcoin Looks Undervalued The report’s clearest Bitcoin price signal comes from the asset’s “Yardstick,” a valuation framework that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to hash rate. Fidelity rated the metric positive, noting that falling prices and a pullback in hash rate have pushed the indicator into what it calls an “undervalued” zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin $90,000 Predictions Surge Across Social Media—Contrarian Signal? “Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms,” the report stated. According to Fidelity, Bitcoin spent 71 of the previous 91 days, or 78% of the period, below negative one standard deviation of the Yardstick’s mean. The condition first appeared in October 2025 and was amplified by two cold-weather events in the United States that temporarily curtailed mining activity as operators reduced power usage to support local grid stability. That nuance matters. Fidelity does not frame the hash-rate decline purely as a sign of deteriorating miner confidence. The report said some analysts have linked the decline to miners shifting toward AI workloads, but argued the move could also reflect demand-response programs, especially in regions such as Texas where miners routinely power down during peak grid demand. The price backdrop remains difficult. Fidelity’s momentum signal for Bitcoin turned negative on October 18, 2025, when BTC traded near $107,000. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 36%, with most of Q1 2026 spent in a defined range between $62,500 and $76,022. The firm said that pattern is more consistent with consolidation than a renewed trend. “This signal is not designed to identify precise tops or bottoms,” Fidelity wrote, adding that the current reading points to stabilization rather than fresh upside momentum. Bitcoin’s NUPL score also reflects a cautious market. Fidelity said BTC’s net unrealized profit/loss stood at 0.21 at the end of Q1 2026, placing investors in the “Hope-Fear” zone. That reading suggests some holders remain in profit, but the market has not yet established broad conviction that a durable bottom is in place. The historical setup is more constructive. Fidelity found that prior periods when Bitcoin’s NUPL hovered around 0.21, plus or minus 0.01, coincided with a median one-year return of 63% and a three-year compound annual growth rate of 74%. The firm emphasized, however, that these historical relationships may weaken or fail to persist, particularly when macro conditions dominate digital asset flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish Separately, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer pointed to a more tactical Bitcoin setup, sharing a chart that shows BTC testing the upper boundary of what he described as a potential bear flag. The chart places Bitcoin near $79,486 after its rebound from the February low around $60,033, with momentum indicators moving back into overbought territory. Timmer framed the current setup as an important technical test. “Technical Analysis 101 states that when bear market rallies get overbought, it’s usually the kiss of death and time to sell,” he wrote. “However, during bull markets overbought momentum means that the market is strong and likely to stay strong.” His conclusion sharpened the price question raised by Fidelity’s broader report: whether Bitcoin is still trapped in a corrective structure or beginning to transition into a new bull phase. “If Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this current combination of overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market and not a bear market rally,” Timmer said, adding that this has been his “hunch all along” and “may be about to get confirmed.” At press time, BTC traded at $76,036. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $76,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $75,000 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $76,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $76,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $76,500 and $77,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $76,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $76,000 level. There was a move below the $75,500 level. The price even dipped below $75,000. A low was formed at $74,940 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $76,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,200 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $77,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,500 level. The first major support is near the $75,250 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,400 and $77,200.

The Bitcoin price is currently sitting on a key support trendline that could determine its next major move. According to a crypto analyst, a breakout from this level could lead to two possible scenarios. On the bullish side, the cryptocurrency could extend its recent price recovery and push higher. However, in a bearish scenario, the analyst predicts a steep decline, with price possibly revisiting $68,000. Given the significance of this trendline, analysts and traders are closely watching to see how Bitcoin will react here.  Bitcoin Price Sits At Critical Make Or Break Trendline Crypto market analyst Ardi has presented another compelling Bitcoin price analysis on X. However, this time, he has outlined two potential price scenarios for the flagship cryptocurrency. While others believe that Bitcoin may have entered bullish territory following its surge above $79,000, Ardi still maintains a cautious stance even as he projects possible bullish scenarios. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bull Market And Will Continue To Rise; Analyst Shares Why In his post, Ardi noted that the Bitcoin price is currently sitting at a critical technical area where two key support levels are converging. He said that these supports include an established ascending trendline pointing toward $79,418 and a liquidity zone around the $77,300 level.  According to him, this ascending trendline has guided Bitcoin’s price action since it reached $65,000 in early April. The chart also clearly shows that every major swing high within BTC’s latest recovery has respected this trendline, making it a consistently tested support area throughout the upward move. As a result, Ardi emphasized that this trendline has become a critical zone for the market to watch, especially as Bitcoin is now approaching a decisive point where price could either break above or below the support. He also noted that every rally since the $65,000 level was gained from key liquidity zones found on this ascending trendline.  Because of this, he believes that as long as the trendline holds, Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure will remain intact. Moreover, if the cryptocurrency can break above the trendline at $79,410, it could extend its move higher.  Analyst Predicts Possible Price Flush To $68,000 For his bearish outlook, Ardi explained that if Bitcoin loses the $77,300 support level, it could mark the first clear breakdown toward a decline to lower levels. He noted that this would invalidate BTC’s bullish structure and signal a major shift in momentum.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Is Going To $200,000, Reveals When To Buy From there, he expects BTC’s price to move into deeper liquidity pockets below current levels. He pointed to a potential healthy retest around $76,000, followed by a pullback near $73,600 if selling pressure persists. If Bitcoin breaks this area, he believes that the cryptocurrency could turn bearish, potentially driving the price back toward $68,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is holding above $76,000 as the market tests resistance, and bulls attempt to build the momentum needed for the next leg higher. The price is constructive. The order book above it is not cooperating. Data from CoinGlass shows that the sell wall between $80,500 and $82,000 has been in place for over 24 hours. The orders are large, evenly spaced at approximately $3.3 million intervals, and they have not moved. In order book analysis, that combination — scale, spacing, and persistence — is the fingerprint of deliberate placement rather than coincidental accumulation. Spoofs disappear within minutes. This wall has survived a full trading day and is still there. Related Reading: Crypto Traders Just Moved $100 Billion In Gold Volume: Find Out What Is Driving The Rush The picture below shows that the current price adds a layer of complexity to the straightforward bearish reading of the supply overhead. Bids are stacking meaningfully around $76,800 and throughout the $75,000 to $76,000 zone — a demand cluster building beneath Bitcoin, at the same time, a supply cluster is holding firm above it. The market is being compressed from both directions simultaneously. That compression is the setup that defines the current moment. A wall of persistent selling above. A cushion of building demand below. Bitcoin caught between them, holding $76,000, with the next decisive move depending entirely on which side of the order book proves stronger when the pressure resolves. The Wall Has Not Moved. That Is the Point The CoinGlass analysis cuts through the most common objection to reading persistent order book levels as meaningful signals. Individual orders can be pulled, replaced, or refreshed at any moment — that is the nature of a dynamic order book, and it means no single order should be treated as a commitment. That is not what makes the current setup significant. What makes it significant is the zone itself. The $80,500 to $82,000 range has remained consistently occupied by large, evenly spaced sell orders for over 24 hours — not because the same orders have been sitting untouched, but because whatever orders were removed have been replaced by orders of similar size in similar positions. The zone is being actively maintained. Someone, or multiple coordinated participants, is ensuring that a visible supply continues to exist in this specific area, regardless of what happens to the individual orders within it. That distinction matters enormously for how the current resistance should be interpreted. A cluster of orders that appears once and disappears is noise — it could be a spoof, a momentary imbalance, or a participant who changed their mind. A zone that remains consistently populated over an extended period is a statement. It reflects participants who want that supply to be visible, who want the market to know that selling interest exists at those levels, and who are willing to maintain that appearance through a full trading day and beyond. The question the data cannot answer — and the one the article must address — is why. Control, defense, pressure, or a test of real demand. The wall is real. The motivation behind it is what determines how the next move resolves. Related Reading: Binance Ethereum Supply Hits 2020 Levels While Staking Locks A Third: Repricing Ahead? Bitcoin Holds Above Reclaimed Range as Resistance Approaches Bitcoin is trading near $77,500 on the daily chart, maintaining strength after reclaiming the $74,000–$75,000 range that previously acted as resistance. That zone now functions as support, and the structure since early April shows a clear shift: higher highs and higher lows have replaced the choppy, directionless behavior seen through March. The recovery from the February capitulation near $62,000 was aggressive, supported by a strong volume spike that marked a clear exhaustion of sellers. Since then, volume has normalized, but price has continued to grind higher — a constructive sign that demand remains present even without panic-driven flows. Related Reading: XRP’s Recovery Is Real, But The Risk Appetite Behind It Is Still Broken – Analyst Technically, Bitcoin is now pressing into the $78,000–$80,000 region, where previous breakdowns occurred and where the 100-day moving average is beginning to flatten overhead. The 200-day moving average sits lower, around the reclaimed range, reinforcing the $74,000 area as a key structural support. Momentum is positive but slowing. The recent candles show smaller bodies and wicks on both sides, indicating hesitation as the price approaches resistance. If Bitcoin consolidates above $74,000, the structure supports a breakout attempt toward $82,000. Losing that level would weaken the trend and risk a move back into the prior range. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) failed again to push back above the $80,000 level this week, a price point that has remained stubbornly resistant since early February. After struggling through the latest attempt to break higher, BTC retraced to around $75,400 on Wednesday. Bloomberg attributes part of this stagnation to a less visible but powerful force: positioning in the options market. According to the report, a concentrated set of call options has built up around the $80,000 strike on Deribit. Why Bitcoin Keeps Stalling Near $80,000 As Andy Baehr, managing director of asset management at GSR, explained in the report, many speculators are choosing to sell calls at $80,000 because it is viewed as a “safe” area to monetize premiums. The other side of those trades is where the pressure begins.  Dealers who buy the calls often hedge by selling Bitcoin, creating what Baehr described as an “electric fence” effect—an arrangement that makes it harder for BTC to surge through the strike level without an unusual catalyst. That helps explain why Bitcoin has still struggled to clear $80,000.  Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Posts $200M Quarterly Loss—Did Hyperliquid Help Avoid New Crisis? The options picture is reinforced by activity levels in broader markets. The report also points to on-chain data and platform metrics suggesting that the group (retail) that drove the earlier rally has largely stepped back. Instead, many are said to be nursing losses or waiting for clearer signals.  At the same time, a persistently bearish Bitcoin futures market and slowing spot demand have encouraged some traders to underwrite more call options, aiming to capture premium income on the expectation that Bitcoin will not meaningfully trade above the $80,000 strike over the coming months. May Expiries, Rolling Calls, And Stock-Driven Volatility Deribit’s $80,000 Bitcoin calls appear especially concentrated in the late May and June expiries. According to market data provider Kaiko, out of roughly $1.5 billion in notional call open interest, contracts totaling $160 million are set to expire on May 1, with an additional $566 million expiring on May 29.  Those clustering dates can matter because they concentrate both hedging activity and speculative behavior into specific time windows. Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, said the pattern suggests persistent call selling and evidence of “systematic rolling.” In other words, rather than allowing positions to roll off naturally, market participants may keep moving risk forward in a way that maintains pressure near the strike.  Erdösi also cautioned that options positioning alone does not tell the whole story, noting there are signs of profit-taking into the $80,000 area for Bitcoin as well. Related Reading: XRP Price Target At $18,000: Expert Says—Only One Condition Must Be Met Finally, the report flags that volatility outside crypto may spill into Bitcoin’s price action. With equities showing sharper movement in recent sessions, BTC has tended to follow along.  Bohan Jiang, senior derivatives trader at FalconX, suggested that this could contribute to a more stabilizing pattern around $80,000. In his view, with stocks “chopping around” recently, Bitcoin’s behavior has mirrored that uncertainty—helping explain why attempts to break through the level keep stalling. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price structure is starting to look less like a clean recovery to $80,000 and more like a battleground between $76,000 and $78,000, where every rally is being tested, and every dip is being watched. A new technical outlook from a crypto analyst known as Guru is now adding an interesting angle to that uncertainty, outlining a path where Bitcoin could first lure in late buyers before unwinding into a 50% decline before the end of the year. Next Bitcoin Move Bitcoin’s recent price action in April has led to bullish momentum slowly creeping in, and many analysts are now looking at bullish price targets at the end of the year. However, in a post shared on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Guru laid out a revised multi-stage roadmap for Bitcoin that culminates in a crash to as low as $30,000 by year-end, a drawdown of as much as 61% from current levels.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped The chart accompanying the post is a weekly timeframe chart that projects the full arc of the move: a compression zone, a rally, and then a terminal decline that would take Bitcoin to price levels last seen in late 2023.  According to the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently transitioning into a high-timeframe redistribution phase. Guru’s original prediction anticipated a simpler two-act sequence involving a flush to $55,000 followed by a direct rally to $80,000. That scenario has now been superseded, though the analyst is clear that the broader conclusion has not changed. The updated plan introduces a higher-timeframe (HTF) consolidation and redistribution phase first, which is likely to trap traders on both sides. The prediction based on this updated plan is that Bitcoin will reverse soon to find a local bottom in the $62,000-$65,000 zone before staging a rally to $85,000. It is that rally, Guru argues, that is the real danger. “The 85k pump will be the ultimate exit liquidity trap,” the analyst wrote. A Year-End Slide To $30,000 The most interesting part of the prediction is what is expected to happen once Bitcoin undergoes the projected rally to $85,000. Once the liquidity above is taken and the market exhausts buying pressure, the analyst anticipates a move lower, targeting a broad range between $50,000 on the higher end and $30,000 on the lower end before the end of the year. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $140,000 And XRP To $7? Here’s When It Will Happen Despite the severity of the forecast, Guru has been explicit about what would invalidate it. A weekly close above $98,000 would render the entire bearish scenario void.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,000, which means a drop to $50,000 would represent a decline of roughly 35%, while a deeper slide to $30,000 would translate to an approximate 61% loss from current levels. On the other hand, a move to the analyst’s invalidation level at $98,000 would require a rally of about 27%. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons indicator has flashed another buy signal, reviving a historically watched miner-capitulation setup. But according to crypto analyst Darkfost, the signal may require more caution this cycle as miner activity becomes increasingly exposed to energy shocks, geopolitical pressure and shrinking block rewards. Hash Ribbons is designed to track stress in Bitcoin mining by comparing the 30-day moving average of hashrate with the 60-day moving average. When shorter-term hashrate falls below longer-term hashrate and later recovers, the model has often been interpreted as a sign that miner capitulation is ending and that conditions are improving for the network’s operators. Bitcoin Buy Signal Returns, But Here’s The Catch Darkfost framed the latest signal as potentially constructive, but not self-explanatory. “Hash Ribbons flashes a buy signal again: but should we trust it?” he wrote, describing the indicator as “a barometer of Bitcoin miners’ activity” that helps identify “genuine stress periods affecting BTC mining operations.” The logic behind the indicator is straightforward. When miners face severe margin pressure, some operators shut down machines or sell BTC reserves to cover costs. That can reduce hashrate, lengthen block intervals and add near-term supply pressure to the market. Eventually, if enough hashrate leaves the network, mining difficulty adjusts lower. If Bitcoin’s price stabilizes or recovers during that same period, miners that remain online can see profitability improve quickly. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish “That is where opportunity often emerges,” Darkfost argued. “Once enough difficulty resets out of the system, mining becomes more attractive again. Machines come back online, forced selling eases, and network conditions normalize.” The signal matters because miner economics have become structurally more demanding. Bitcoin miners now receive 3.125 BTC per block before fees, down sharply from the 50 BTC rewards in the network’s early years. Although the dollar value of block rewards has grown over time, the subsidy continues to decline with each halving, forcing miners to operate with tighter discipline and more efficient infrastructure. Darkfost pointed to several sources of pressure on mining profitability, including rising difficulty, the need for more powerful ASIC machines, volatile energy costs, fixed expenses such as rent and staffing, Bitcoin price swings and even weather-related disruptions. These variables can combine quickly, especially for operators with high electricity costs or less efficient fleets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says That is also why the analyst warned against treating every Hash Ribbons signal as equal. Earlier this year, he noted, an ice storm in the United States forced many miners to temporarily shut down operations, producing a signal that later looked misleading. Darkfost also cited false signals around the 2021 China mining ban and in June 2022, though he emphasized that the drivers were different in each case. “Hash Ribbons still has a strong long term track record, but the context behind each signal matters more than ever,” he wrote. “These days, mining activity is becoming increasingly sensitive as block rewards shrink over time. Right now, ongoing geopolitical conflict is disrupting parts of the energy market and key shipping routes, both of which can affect miner activity in a way.” That distinction is central to the current setup. A classic miner-capitulation signal can suggest that forced selling is easing and that weaker operators have already been flushed out. But if the hashrate decline was caused by temporary external disruption rather than deep financial stress across the mining sector, the signal may carry less information about market structure. Darkfost’s conclusion was therefore measured rather than outright bullish. Hash Ribbons may again be pointing to improving conditions for Bitcoin miners, but the current macro and energy backdrop complicates the read. At press time, BTC traded at $77,152. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitwise advisor Jeff Park says Bitcoin’s next all-time high could be driven not by spot ETF flows alone, but by a fast-growing options market around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. Speaking at Bitcoin Conference 2026 in Las Vegas on Monday, Park argued that IBIT options are beginning to reshape the structure of Bitcoin volatility and may become the catalyst for the asset’s next major leg higher. Why BlackRock’s Bitcoin Options Could Be Crucial Park said the market has reached a notable inflection point: IBIT options open interest has now overtaken Deribit’s open interest “for the first time in a meaningful way.” For years, Deribit has served as the dominant venue for Bitcoin options, with traders often using its D-Vol index as a proxy for implied volatility across the market. Park argued that this approach is increasingly incomplete. “For a long time people would look at Deribit’s D-Vol to calculate implied volatility but D-Vol is flawed,” Park said. “D-Vol only uses Deribit options. The reality is there’s lots of offshore exchanges, there’s now IBIT options, and we actually need more intelligent ways to quantify the parameterization of implied volatility.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Headed For $40,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC That shift matters because the US-listed IBIT options market appears to be pricing Bitcoin risk differently from offshore venues. Park pointed to BVIV US, which tracks implied volatility on IBIT, and BVIV, an offshore exchange aggregate correlation implied volatility measure. According to him, the spread between the two now sits around five points, with IBIT volatility trading higher than Deribit and other offshore exchange volatility. The premium, in Park’s view, may reflect a different kind of buyer entering the Bitcoin options market. Unlike much of the offshore options complex, IBIT options can extend more than two years out, giving investors access to longer-tenor upside exposure through a regulated US product. That duration may be drawing demand from retail investors seeking leveraged participation in a potential Bitcoin rally without the same constraints typically associated with offshore venues. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish “Where is that five points spread coming from? My guess is that there’s a lot of retail demand for upside participation in a longer tenor than what is promised usually on Deribit because IBIT options go out two years plus,” Park said. “And so my bold prediction is that we’re going to see a big Bitcoin move up.” Park’s thesis centers on the interaction between options positioning and Bitcoin’s scarcity. If IBIT options continue to gain market share, and if upside call demand forces dealers or other market participants to hedge dynamically, the resulting gamma effects could add momentum to a rising market. In that setup, options activity would not merely reflect bullish sentiment; it could help amplify it. “My prediction is that it is going to be led by IBIT options and the reflexive nature in which the gamma that is possibly created within something like Bitcoin due to its scarcity can really, really lead the next leg up in a meaningful way,” Park said. At press time, BTC traded at $75,937. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $78,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $75,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $77,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $76,000 and $75,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $77,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $77,000 level. There was a move below the $76,500 level. The price even dipped below $76,000. A low was formed at $75,652 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,480 swing high to the $75,652 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,500 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $77,150 level. A close above the $77,150 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $77,500 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,480 swing high to the $75,652 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,500. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,000 level. The first major support is near the $75,800 level. The next support is now near the $75,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,500 and $77,150.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have spent the past few weeks moving like assets caught between two powerful forces. On one side, institutional demand has returned through Spot ETFs, treasury purchases, and dip-buying from larger investors. On the other side, profit-taking and heavy derivatives positioning keep turning rallies into sudden pullbacks. ETF Demand Is Slowly Lifting Bitcoin And Ethereum The crypto market has not been moving in a clean straight line. Bitcoin has pushed close to the $80,000 level more than once in the past week, only to lose momentum around $79,000. Ethereum has been following these moves, but with its own ETF flow and positioning pressure.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin The strongest reason Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rising is the return of institutional inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been on a strong inflow streak in April, with data indicating more than $2.2 billion in net inflows between April 14 and April 24. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $823.7 million from April 20 to April 24, while Ethereum ETFs attracted about $155 million over the same week. That helps explain why Bitcoin was able to rebound strongly from its earlier March range in the mid-$60,000s and move back near $78,000 to $80,000. Bitcoin recently came close to $80,000, reaching around $79,475 over the weekend before reversing, showing that sellers are still active. A War That Crypto Cannot Ignore The single biggest driver of crypto volatility in 2026 has been a conflict thousands of miles from any blockchain. The US-Iran conflict has been the biggest factor in how the cryptocurrency market has been facing mounting pressure.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Ethereum Just Confirmed A ‘Turtle Soup’, Here’s What It Means The sudden onset of military conflict in February delivered an immediate and severe shock that pushed cryptocurrencies to their lows. However, earlier in April, Bitcoin jumped to an 11-week high in light of easing US-Iran tensions and talks of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As it stands, US President Donald Trump’s national security team is reviewing an Iranian peace plan to halt the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the strait if the US lifts its blockade and sanctions on the country. Bitcoin and Ethereum price fluctuations have largely tracked these ups and downs and worries over rising oil prices. An ongoing US naval blockade and Iran continuing to seize ships suggest, however, that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is still far off. The third force behind the sharp swings is leverage, as crypto markets are heavily influenced by derivatives. For instance, the recent Bitcoin rally to $79,000 caught many traders off-guard, and over $200 million worth of short positions were liquidated. Buying pressure on the Bitcoin derivatives side has yet to simmer down, as on-chain data shows BTC net taker volume recently surged to around $145 million. Ethereum has also seen aggressive derivatives activity. Recent data showed ETH futures open interest jumping 26% to about $25.4 billion. Ethereum buyers are also at their most aggressive buying spree phase since early 2023. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a response to “wartime inflation,” not just the artificial intelligence cycle. Hayes framed the recent shift around a simple premise: governments are openly preparing to spend more on defense, and that spending ultimately has to be financed. In his view, that puts Bitcoin back in familiar territory as a liquidity-sensitive asset with a hard-money narrative. “Since the war has started, Bitcoin has outperformed,” Hayes said. “It outperformed NASDAQ and outperformed the SaaS stocks. And basically, I think that Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Turns Neutral For First Time Since January The core of Hayes’ argument was not that the Fed will suddenly return to explicit quantitative easing. Instead, he focused on what he described as a likely balance-sheet reshuffling between the Fed and the commercial banking system, one that could allow officials to claim the Fed is shrinking while leaving the broader dollar liquidity picture largely intact. Bitcoin Vs. The Hawkish Fed Narrative Hayes addressed market concerns around Kevin Warsh, whom he said investors have viewed as a potentially hawkish Fed chair because of his criticism of the central bank’s large balance sheet. Hayes said those fears miss the practical constraints facing monetary officials when the US government is still issuing massive amounts of debt. “If the market believes that there’s going to be less dollar liquidity floating around the system because of what Warsh will do with the Fed, then they’ll be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets,” Hayes said. “This is what we’ve seen in the media talking about sort of this hawkish Fed that’s going to come into place after May when Warsh takes over. Now, I don’t believe that’s the case.” According to Hayes, Warsh would be constrained by the Treasury’s need to keep the bond market functioning. He argued that the Fed cannot pursue balance-sheet reduction in a vacuum when the US government must continue funding large deficits. “At the end of the day, when you’ve issued $38 trillion of debt and you need to fund the government, the Federal Reserve will do what it’s asked to do, which is make sure the market is orderly so that people can buy this debt,” Hayes said. The Bank Balance Sheet Trade Hayes’ central mechanism is a swap: commercial banks reduce their holdings of Fed reserves and replace them with Treasuries and repos. In that scenario, the Fed’s balance sheet can become smaller on paper, while the banking system absorbs more government debt. “The point of all this is that the net effect on dollar liquidity is neutral,” Hayes said. “There’s nothing being sold, there’s nothing being bought. It’s just a swap. It’s purely regulatory fiction in terms of who is allowed to hold what.” That distinction matters for Bitcoin because Hayes says investors should care less about the stated size of the Fed’s balance sheet and more about whether the overall system is creating or destroying dollar liquidity. If debt simply migrates from the Fed to regulated bank balance sheets, the impact may be far less restrictive than markets fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says Hayes linked that transition to US banking deregulation and specifically cited changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which he said went live on April 1. In his telling, the rule change allows large banks such as JPMorgan and Citibank to absorb more Treasuries and repos, while smaller banks can expand construction and industrial lending. He also cited an S&P Global estimate that the ESLR balance-sheet reduction could generate $1.3 trillion of new loans. Wartime Spending Becomes The Demand Engine Hayes argued that the demand side of the lending cycle is already visible. Defense spending, critical resource production and AI infrastructure are all becoming national-security priorities, he said, creating borrowers with government-backed demand and therefore more attractive credit profiles for banks. “Why will banks have demand for loans? One of the criticisms about this analysis from some of my other macro-fans is that they claim the banking system is not creating enough loans or there’s not enough demand,” Hayes said. “Well, we have a great source of demand that is the US Department of War.” He said banks would lend to defense suppliers, resource miners and hyperscalers as AI capital expenditure becomes part of the national-security framework. Hayes described bank lending as especially important because, in his view, it carries a higher multiplier than central bank lending, estimating that around $4 trillion in credit could ultimately be created. That is the basis for his renewed bullishness. Hayes said his liquidity chart bottomed in November of last year, roughly around the same time as Bitcoin, and argued that after a period of war-driven uncertainty, the market may now be ready to move higher. “I think we’ve had a bit of a chop. We’ve had a bit of a war. Now it’s time to break out,” Hayes said. “And that’s why I believe Bitcoin is going higher. I think my end of year choice target is like $125,000, whatever, it doesn’t fucking matter, I’m wrong anyways.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,628. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $79,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $76,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $78,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $77,600 and $78,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $78,500 resistance zone. BTC formed a top near $79,500 and started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $78,000 level. The price dipped below the $77,500 and $77,000 levels. A low was formed at $76,480 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,481 swing high to the $76,480 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $76,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,300 level. The first key resistance is near the $77,600 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,600 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,481 swing high to the $76,480 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,800. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,600 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,750 level. The first major support is near the $76,500 level. The next support is now near the $75,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,500, followed by $75,500. Major Resistance Levels – $77,600 and $78,000.

Is Bitcoin quietly evolving beyond finance into a tool of national defense? That question is gaining traction after comments from Samuel Paparo, the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, reported that BTC may have significance beyond markets, hinting at a role in cyber defense, power projection, and strategic competition. Paparo pulled back the curtain on a quiet but potentially significant shift in how the technology is being evaluated at the highest levels of defense. Could Bitcoin Support The Future Of Military Readiness? In a recent X post, an analyst known as TFTC updated that the head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command revealed that the US military is actively running a Bitcoin node and testing the protocol’s cryptographic architecture for operational security. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Still Acts Like A Risk Asset Despite Safe-Haven Claims Furthermore, Paparo reportedly framed BTC as a tool for securing and protecting networks, and suggested its relevance to power projection in the context of strategic competition with China. Not mining, not speculating, but running infrastructure. The same network once mocked as a haven for criminals is now considered critical to national security by the Department of Defense. Meanwhile, the US is estimated to hold roughly 328,000 BTC, while China is believed to control around 194,000 BTC. Whether BTC was intentional or incidental, the military is treating it as an asset in a geopolitical arms race. A Message That Shifted Bitcoin Narrative Away From Mystery It has been 15 years since Satoshi Nakamoto handed Bitcoin to the world. Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research, has stated that Nakamoto sent what is widely believed to be his last confirmed communication. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Renewed Demand From US Institutional Players — What’s Changing? On April 26, 2011, Satoshi wrote to Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen, urging him to shift the narrative away from the shadowy figure and toward emphasizing BTC as an open-source project and community contribution. In the days leading up to that message, Satoshi had already begun stepping back. In a message to developer Mike Hearn on April 20 and 23, Satoshi said he had moved on to other things, reassuring him that BTC was in good hands with Gavin and everyone. His last public post was earlier on December 12, 2010, in his 575th post on the Bitcointalk forum. The focus was on warning about a potential DoS attack, and signing off with the fact that there was still more work to do. Fifteen years later, the coins remain untouchable. Satoshi holds roughly 1.097 million BTC, currently worth an estimated $85 billion, still sitting untouched. In Alex’s view, when Satoshi said BTC was in good hands, he wasn’t only speaking to early developers; he was speaking to all of us, and we must carry that legacy forward. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has warned against giving in to the FOMO and buying Bitcoin (BTC) at new highs. He noted that although the cryptocurrency could continue its upward move and even push past $80,000, this does not necessarily signal the end of the broader bear market. Instead, he argues that the move could be a strong distribution phase, leading to further declines. He also projects that Bitcoin could still experience a deeper correction, with a potential market bottom forming near $40,000.   Analyst Warns Against Buying BTC At $85,000 @Sherlockwhale, a crypto market analyst on X, is sounding the alarm for traders who believe Bitcoin could glide smoothly past the $83,000-$88,000 price range without encountering resistance. According to him, this zone exhibits more sell pressure than any other level in BTC’s current chart structure.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Called Bitcoin’s Top Correctly Now Predicting The Bottom The analyst based his view on a broader Fibonacci retracement structure drawn from Bitcoin’s past move between $97,000 and $60,000. He described this range as a full impulse wave to the downside, followed by a recovery phase where the price has been making higher rebounds but still facing sharp pullbacks. From this structure, @Sherlockwhales identified key upside levels on BTC’s chart at $83,435 (0.618 Fib), $84,647 (0.65 Fib), and $89,797 (0.786 Fib). He noted that this cluster forms a major untested resistance zone on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. According to him, untested resistance areas like these tend to attract heavier sell pressure because traders who bought at those levels are still underwater and may look to exit as the price returns toward breakeven. Further explaining, @Sherlockwhales stated that the average cost basis for all US Spot Bitcoin ETF holders is currently $87,830. This means that investors who bought the ETF over the past two years are still holding substantial unrealized losses, with BTC currently trading below their entry level. According to the analyst, this makes the $87,000 to $88,000 range an important psychological level for the market.  He noted that if Bitcoin returns to this upper range, many ETF investors would reach breakeven for the first time in months. He added that this could trigger increased selling pressure, as investors who have been in pain since its ATH in October 2025 may choose to sell their coins to recover past losses.  Similarly, @Sherlockwhales noted that the short-term holder cost basis currently sits around $80,100. He explained that whenever Bitcoin moved above this basis, it formed a local top because short-term holders took the opportunity to exit the market at a profit. The analyst emphasized that this pattern has already played out twice, each time leading to a sharp price breakdown. He now warns that if BTC experiences another upward rally toward $80,000, it could fuel another wave of selling pressure and potentially lead to a similar pullback.  Analyst Predicts BTC Crash To $40,000 And Where To Buy Because @Sherlockwhales believes most underwater investors would sell their coins for a profit at upper resistance levels, he warns traders not to buy BTC around $85,000, suggesting it could be a bull trap. He predicts that the Bitcoin price could crash toward $40,000, possibly marking its final bottom before a new bull trend begins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin Rather than buying at $85,000, the analyst urges investors to wait until October before entering the market. He noted that prices during this time window would present the most favorable long-term buying opportunity for traders.  Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is moving through another major reset following its 42% crash from its all-time high. However, what appears to be a sharp decline may actually be laying the foundation for the next phase of growth. A crypto expert believes the pullback is revealing underlying strength, pointing to a structure that remains intact despite short-term pressure. Bitcoin Cycles Show Why Crypto Market Crashes Can Be Healthy The recent decline in the total crypto market cap, which pushed it down by about 46% from its $4.22 trillion peak, reflects a pattern that has often appeared before major rallies. Crypto enthusiast @DamiDefi drew attention to this, noting that similar pullbacks have historically occurred at key turning points, often just before strong upward moves begin. Related Reading: Will Ethereum Reach $250,000 Before Bitcoin? Here’s What Needs To Happen This observation is supported by the chart he shared. It shows the market returning to the $2.25 trillion zone, a level that has consistently acted as support since 2021. As @DamiDefi highlighted, the latest retest followed the same structure, with buyers stepping in once again to defend the level and limit further downside. This consistent reaction around the same zone strengthens the idea that the market still rests on solid foundations. The data further suggests that funds are not exiting the market entirely but are instead moving between assets. During periods like this, capital often shifts quietly into areas that have been overlooked or undervalued. In this way, the correction does more than reduce prices. It allows the market to reset, reposition, and rebuild strength more gradually. This process plays a key role in creating a more stable base for future growth while reducing the chances of fragile, short-lived rallies. Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance As Recovery Builds With support holding firm, attention is now turning to the next challenge, which @DamiDefi identified in his analysis. The market is currently trading around $2.58 trillion, a level that previously acted as resistance in both 2021 and 2024. This makes it a critical point in the current structure. Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH For the recovery to continue, this resistance needs to turn into support. A strong monthly close above $2.58 trillion would signal that buyers are gaining control again. If that happens, the next target lies between $3.5 trillion and $3.85 trillion, a zone where price faced rejection during the 2025 highs. There are already signs of momentum building. The monthly candle is up about 10.90%, and there is still time left before it closes. This steady upward movement, combined with the strong support at $2.25 trillion, suggests that Bitcoin’s crash from its ATH may have helped reset the market, allowing the price to rebuild with stronger conviction. Looking at the full picture, the decline from Bitcoin’s ATH appears to fit into a familiar cycle. As @DamiDefi highlighted, large pullbacks like this have often come before major rallies. With key support holding and resistance now in focus, the current phase may not be a setback, but a necessary step in Bitcoin’s broader growth cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin may be positioned for a sharp upside repricing if the network shows tangible progress on post-quantum security. Speaking on Bitcoin Suisse AG’s podcast with Dominic Weibel and Luca Gnos, Edwards argued that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance, weak sentiment and institutional hesitation suggest quantum risk may already be partly reflected in the market. Edwards framed the current setup as one of the strongest Bitcoin opportunity zones in months, but with a major caveat. In his view, Bitcoin has “completely flipped the script” after a nine-month downtrend, showing relative strength against equities and gold even as geopolitical risk, oil-market concerns and macro uncertainty remain elevated. “Bitcoin, which has been in a massive downtrend for the last nine months completely flipped the script in the last two, three weeks,” Edwards said. “Those are very strong signals that you usually only get every couple of years in my experience.” Quantum Risk Is Now Central To Bitcoin The central variable, according to Edwards, is no longer the traditional four-year cycle, miner supply or even short-term macro volatility. It is whether Bitcoin can show credible movement toward quantum-resistant signatures before the perceived threat window tightens further. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Renewed Demand From US Institutional Players — What’s Changing? Edwards said he remains constructive on Bitcoin as an investment because the asset has already been heavily discounted. But he was blunt about the longer-term risk if Bitcoin Core contributors and the broader ecosystem continue to treat quantum security as a distant issue. “I’m constructive and optimistic from an investor point of view because we had such a big discount,” he said. “Today it’s fully priced in the risk and more so. For me that means it’s a good opportunity in the near term.” That opportunity, however, is conditional. Edwards said his concern is that Bitcoin’s current cryptographic assumptions could become a live market issue before the network has completed the long process of developing, agreeing on and rolling out post-quantum upgrades. “If we do nothing for two years, I probably won’t have any Bitcoin,” Edwards said. “There is a time limit to some of this stuff.” Edwards criticized what he sees as complacency among parts of the Bitcoin development community. While he acknowledged that some preparatory work has been done, including references to BIP 360, he argued that Bitcoin still lacks a concrete migration path for post-quantum signatures and for coins that may remain exposed. “Some of the biggest core developers recently said it’s not even our top 100 priorities,” Edwards said. “And I’m just like, how? For me this is the only priority that Bitcoin should have. Nothing else matters.” Related Reading: Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Hitting $300,000-$500,000 By Late 2029 He said the technical problem is solvable, but not trivial. Post-quantum signature schemes can be larger, raising questions about block space, throughput, wallet migration and the treatment of dormant coins. Edwards also highlighted the unresolved issue of lost coins, including older outputs that could become vulnerable if sufficiently powerful quantum computers arrive before a network-wide transition. His base case is not that Bitcoin fails. Rather, he expects growing pressure from institutions, Ethereum’s quantum-readiness work and Bitcoin-focused companies to eventually force progress. He described any clear signal from major Bitcoin Core contributors that quantum resistance is becoming a serious priority as a potential catalyst. “As soon as there’s any traction from implementing code to improve Bitcoin, I think we’ll reprice higher and this risk goes away,” Edwards said. “If we get traction on quantum, we could have a new all-time high very quickly, I think. If we don’t, we may not get one.” Bitcoin Metrics Signal Value Beyond quantum, Edwards said several Capriole metrics point to Bitcoin trading in a deep value zone. He cited Capriole’s energy value model, which he said placed Bitcoin’s fair value around $115,000, implying roughly a 43% discount at the time of the discussion. He also pointed to discounted readings across metrics such as dynamic range NVT, Yardstick, MVRV Z-score and miner-related indicators. Still, Edwards stressed that mining metrics matter less than they once did. In his framework, institutional demand from ETFs and treasury companies has become the dominant supply-demand force. He said institutional buying had recently turned positive again, while long-term holder supply was beginning to rise after a long period of selling. That combination, he argued, is consistent with seller exhaustion. It also helps explain why Bitcoin has held up despite weak sentiment. For the near term, Edwards pointed to $71,000 as a key level and said Bitcoin could move toward $80,000 to $82,000 if current strength holds. A weekly or monthly close below $71,000, he said, would challenge that setup. At press time, BTC traded at $77,629. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $78,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $79,200 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $76,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $78,250 and $77,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes More Gains Bitcoin price found support near $77,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $77,500 and $78,000 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $78,500. A high was formed at $79,480, and the price started a consolidation phase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $77,145 swing low to the $79,480 high. The bulls are now active above $78,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $78,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $78,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,500 level. A close above the $79,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $80,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $81,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,600 level. The first major support is near the $78,300 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $77,145 swing low to the $79,480 high and the trend line at $78,250. The next support is now near the $77,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $76,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $78,250, followed by $77,250. Major Resistance Levels – $79,500 and $80,000.

According to an on-chain analyst, Bitcoin has been witnessing a shift in investor behavior in one of its major markets, the United States. This shift in its market dynamics, according to the market pundit, might be key to sustaining the flagship cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally.  Coinbase Premium Flips Positive Following Prolonged Weakness  In the 25th April post on X, Darkfost highlighted that the US institutional and professional investors are back in the Bitcoin market, with the price seemingly poised to climb further. The relevant indicator here is the Hourly Coinbase Premium metric.  Related Reading: The Ethereum Golden Triangle That Has Predicted Every Move Shows Where Price Is Headed For context, this metric tracks the hourly price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance to indicate whether institutional-driven demand is pushing prices higher, as opposed to retail-driven markets. Importantly, the version of the Coinbase Premium Index being analyzed is volume-weighted.  This means that larger trades carry more influence in the calculation, helping to filter out market “noise.” Darkfost noted that the Coinbase Premium Index is moderately positive. However, what’s notable about the shift is that this trend towards the positive has been ongoing since the beginning of April — and, interestingly, it started after a prolonged period spent in negative territory. In essence, this shift suggests that Bitcoin is trading at a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance. By extension, this trend often signals stronger institutional involvement, as Coinbase is typically preferred by US-based institutions and professional investors. This is because, while Binance remains one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, it is generally seen as more accessible to retail traders. Coinbase, on the other hand, has a reputation for catering to institutional clients and for offering regulatory clarity and infrastructure for large-scale investors. As such, Coinbase price premiums are often viewed as a means to gauge institutional sentiment. Coinbase Premium Could Sustain BTC Bullish Momentum Darkfost further explained that this renewed buying pressure from US investors is coming at a critical time for the market. This is supported by historical data: rallies driven by institutional demand tend to be more stable than those driven mostly by retail speculation. However, since the Coinbase Premium Index has yet to fully switch to an uptrend, it is advisable to watch for clear signs rather than randomly get tangled in the fray. As such, Darkfost mentioned that, instead of merely Bitcoin’s price, he would also be watching for the index’s further upside. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $77,525, with CoinGecko data showing the premier cryptocurrency has barely moved on a daily basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Double Down On Bearish Bets Amid Consolidation – What This Means For Price Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has spent April staging a recovery from its March lows, briefly climbing back above $79,000. However, not everyone is convinced of the rebound, and some analysts believe the move is only a mid-bear-market rally before a deeper correction.  One such analyst is one that previously predicted a coming peak in July 2025. Now, the same analyst is predicting how far the Bitcoin price still has to fall before it puts in a true bottom. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Analyst Uses Previous Top Model To Predict Bitcoin Bottom Crypto analyst Killa made a cycle-top prediction of $121,362 back in June 2025. This call was made months before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and it was off by only about 3.9%. Now, using the same analytical framework that generated that call, Killa has turned the model toward the downside. The principle behind the projection is that each successive Bitcoin market cycle produces a smaller multiple relative to the prior cycle’s bottom, reflecting the maturation of the asset. His data across five cycles shows the high-to-bottom multiple declining from 15.50x in the first cycle to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and then 4.47x in Cycle 4, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 before bottoming at $15,600. Applying the same rate of reduction, Killa projects the current cycle’s multiple at 3.25x, dividing the $126,100 cycle top to arrive at a base bottom target of $38,800. To account for the 5% variance that offset his top prediction, he added in two upside scenarios of $40,740 and $42,680. Even at the top of that range, Bitcoin would still be well below the $60,000 level that some market participants have cited as the correction bottom.  Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @KillaXBT On X At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,015, meaning a move to $42,680 would still require a drop of about 45%, while a further drop to $38,800 would be close to a 50% correction from current prices. Three Years Up, One Year Down Killa’s bottom projection finds support from a separate analysis by analyst CryptoBullet, who approached the question of a bottom from a symmetry standpoint.  CryptoBullet’s weekly Bitcoin chart characterized the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave advance beginning in late 2022, with Wave 5 completing around the $126,000 high in October 2025. The subsequent correction, labeled as a W-X-Y corrective structure in blue, projects a final Wave Y leg down below $50,000 to $45,000.  Bitcoin Weekly Chart. Source: @CryptoBullet1 On X Related Reading: XRP Signals Imminent Breakout — Is A 10% Rally Coming? According to the analyst, three years of upward price action from the November 2022 bottom through the 2025 peak cannot reasonably be corrected in less than a year of decline. The current bear phase is shown extending into the second half of 2026 before the bottom structure can be completed.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

According to a crypto analyst, the Bitcoin price remains firmly in a bear trend and could be preparing for another major crash to new lows. Using a wave structure, the expert mapped out BTC’s price action during this bearish phase, outlining how he sees the current market developing and where he believes the next downside move could lead. Contrary to other analysts’ predictions, the analyst believes that BTC has not yet reached its cycle bottom and may first see a final surge before plunging below $40,000.   Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Price Could Rebound To $80,000 Before A Final Crash Market analyst Crypto Bullet has presented a bearish BTC forecast on X, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have more declines ahead before the current bear market ends. In his analysis, he described BTC’s market structure as a “Double ZigZag (WXY)” formation, using it to track the cryptocurrency’s price action from its October 2025 peak and project where the next major decline could unfold. One reason Crypto Bullet views BTC’s bear market through this WXY structure is because of how the cryptocurrency has traded in recent months. He noted that Bitcoin has spent far more time consolidating between $62,000 and $78,000 than it did in the $84,000 to $97,000 range, where it traded from November 2025 to January 2026. To him, that prolonged sideways movement reflects a broader bearish structure still playing out.  Based on that setup, Crypto Bullet believes that BTC’s recent rebound above $78,000 does not mean its bear market has ended but could instead be part of a larger corrective move. He expects the cryptocurrency to make one final push higher toward $85,000, with this level as the next major resistance above his ABC target of $82,500, as highlighted on his chart.  Crypto Bullet has tied this outlook to his WXY wave structure. According to him, Bitcoin completed wave W after peaking above $126,000 in October 2025 and plunging to $60,000 in February 2026. He noted that wave X also began after BTC reached $60,000 and projected it could end once the cryptocurrency rallies above $80,000.  If that scenario plays out, Crypto Bullet expects wave Y as the final leg low, which is where he believes BTC could eventually find a bottom. In terms of timing, the analyst believes that BTC still has five months left before its bear market ends, which closely aligns with timelines from past bear cycles. Analyst Marks BTC Bottom Target At $40,000 Crypto Bullet’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin centers on wave Y, which he believes could bring the most severe downturn of this cycle. According to him, once Bitcoin completes its rebound above $80,000 in wave X, the market could reverse sharply, triggering a rapid price crash toward a final bottom.  Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Big Players Are Accumulating — Is $80K Just The Start? He marked BTC’s potential bottom target at $40,000, expecting the move to play out between September and October 2026. From the $80,000 level, this would represent a whopping 50% decline, potentially wiping out bullish traders who had interpreted the surge to $80,000 as the start of a new bullish trend. Supporting this outlook, crypto analyst Tony Severino said he believes this could be the most likely scenario for BTC.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently showing a structure that often precedes sharp volatility, with liquidity building above key levels while price consolidates below. This kind of setup typically signals that the market may first move to hunt those liquidity zones before establishing its next clear directional trend. Bitcoin Builds Liquidity Cluster Around $80K Zone Crypto analyst Cryptorphic noted that Bitcoin is once again building a dense cluster of liquidity around the $80,000 level. This area is becoming increasingly important, as leveraged positions continue to stack above current price action, creating a potential target zone for the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 At present, Bitcoin is trading below this liquidity pocket and moving within a relatively compressed range, reflecting indecision in the market, where price consolidates before a larger expansion. Historically, similar setups have frequently led to liquidity sweeps as the market seeks out areas of unfilled orders. These liquidity zones tend to act like magnets, drawing price toward them as stop-losses and liquidation points accumulate. With so much interest positioned around $80,000, the upside liquidity becomes a natural target if momentum shifts even slightly in favor of buyers. The broader implication is that Bitcoin may first attempt to sweep this $80,000 zone or reach that liquidity level and react from it before any sustained directional move becomes clear.  Markets Move In Two Clear Phases According to the analyst Mags, the market moves through two distinct phases. The first being the Bull Phase, Mags highlights that while the primary trend is upward, it is never a straight line to the top. Instead, price action is characterized by multiple pullbacks, often ranging from 20% to 30%, which occur before a cycle peak is reached. These corrections are presented not as threats, but as a normal and necessary part of every cycle‘s journey, resting sentiment, and fueling continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Short-Term Pullback Following Price Rebound — Analyst The second stage identified by Mags is the Bear Phase, which is triggered when the underlying market structure finally breaks. This shift leads to a much deeper correction than the standard pullbacks seen during the ascent. During this period, the market undergoes a process of finding a definitive bottom, clearing the stage for the next trend to begin.  Ultimately, Mags argues that while the phases transition, the presence of volatility is the one that never changes. The difference between success and failure lies in the ability to recognize your current position within the cycle. As Mags points out, history has consistently rewarded those who can ignore the noise of short-term swings and focus on the long-term game, recognizing that each phase is simply a part of the market’s natural rhythm. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a crucial level as support, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the flagship cryptocurrency have registered their best performance since the October market crash. Related Reading: Eric Trump Calls Justin Sun’s Lawsuit ‘Ridiculous’ As WLFI Hits New All-Time Low Bitcoin ETFs ‘Back In The High Life’ US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their positive streak to eight days after pulling in $223.2 million on Thursday, signaling strong demand for the investment products as the crypto market recovers. The BTC-based funds have been consistently seeing positive net flows since April 14, recording $2.09 billion in inflows during this period, according to SoSoValue data. This marks the category’s strongest performance across multiple timeframes since its late September-early October nine-day streak, when the products saw roughly $5.33 billion in inflows. In the weekly and monthly timeframes, Bitcoin ETFs are currently recording their best performance of 2026, tying March’s four-week streak but nearly doubling the monthly inflows, with $2.43 billion in April so far and four more days to go. Market observer Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that sustained institutional demand is building again, highlighting that the products are about to close their second green month of 2026, and the first two-month streak since October 2025. Similarly, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Erich Balchunas affirmed that Bitcoin ETF flows are “back in the high life” as every single tracking period turns positive and cumulative net inflows hit $58.33 billion. “Every single rolling period we track is now positive, haven’t seen that in months (IBIT’s $3b is in Top 1% of all ETFs). Still tho, need a couple bil more to get back to breaking new ground in cumulative lifetime flows (62.8b),” he wrote on X. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Bitcoin ETFs’ performance comes as the flagship cryptocurrency continues to reject from a key resistance area. In a recent analysis, Rekt Capital said that while BTC’s price enjoys upside momentum, the key levels haven’t changed yet. Notably, BTC’s 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located around $78,000, remains an important resistance level as the cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim it on the weekly timeframe. “If BTC Weekly Closes above the 21-week EMA, then it would be worth watching for whether the EMA can be reclaimed as support,” the analyst affirmed, adding that level tends to serve as resistance in bear markets. On the contrary, if BTC is unable to reclaim this level as support, it could push BTC’s price into a post-breakout retest of its Double Bottom pattern. Last week, Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had broken out of a Double Bottom formation, which could lead to a measured move toward the $81,000-$82,500 area. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ As Price Eyes $2,450 Resistance – Breakout Loading? Now, he has asserted that the “Double Bottom formation top could always become a post-breakout retesting zone in the event of rejection from the EMA.” In addition, he emphasized that BTC remains below the base of the macro triangle formation it broke down from in late January. Historically, Bitcoin has not been able to reclaim a macro triangle during a bear market once the price breaks down. If this trend continues, the analyst warned, then the flagship crypto could see limited additional upside toward the pattern’s base before resuming its correction toward the market bottom. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is sketching out a highly conditional long-term path for Bitcoin that points to a potential peak between $300,000 and $500,000 in late 2029, even as he argues the market still has not produced the kind of action that typically marks a durable bottom. In a post on X, Brandt wrote: “Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.” Thus, Brandt the target to a single condition: that Bitcoin continues to respect the cyclical behavior he says has defined the asset over roughly the last decade and a half. That leaves the near-term setup doing a lot of work. Before any 2029 blow-off scenario comes into view, Brandt is signaling that the current structure still looks incomplete. Why Brandt Is Not Calling A Bitcoin Bottom Yet That skepticism came through more clearly in his reaction to a chart posted by JDK Analysis. Brandt’s reply was blunt: “This does not look like a bottom.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery May Not Arrive Until October, Scaramucci Says JDK’s chart argued that the recent advance has the character of a “Short Re-Accumulation,” but only in a probabilistic sense. The analyst wrote, “As long as bulls fail to show clear strength and follow-through, the current low does not qualify as a strong bottom. This is purely a probabilistic view!” The setup highlighted repeated tests of local highs, fading volume as price pushed higher, and an invalidation level above roughly $80.5K, while suggesting continuation lower remained the more likely path if buyers failed to force a clean break. Brandt also amplified renowned chartist Aksel Kibar, calling him “the most accomplished pure classical chart analyst alive today.” Kibar’s read on the market was less about prediction than process, but the message was similar: technical structures are provisional until price confirms them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally “Sometimes I get criticized by followers who have a position and want to see updates confirming that position on ‘adjusting’ the boundaries,” Kibar wrote. “Well, as the market offers new information we need to adjust. We can’t be dogmatic about our analysis. What looks like a wedge, can morph into a channel. What looks like a bearish continuation can break above the channel boundary requiring action.” That comment was attached to a BTC chart showing exactly that kind of morphing structure. What had previously looked like a rising wedge was reinterpreted as a more clearly defined channel, with several rejections at the upper boundary. The chart also shows Bitcoin still trading below an ascending resistance line and below the 365-day average near $87,000, with the late-February washout toward $60,000 followed by a rebound into the upper-$70,000 area. Nearby levels around $76,500, $72,000 and the low-$80,000s appeared central to the current battle. At press time, BTC traded at $78,196. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin may be entering a familiar but often misunderstood stage of the market cycle. Even as price action shows resilience, derivatives positioning tells a different story, with funding rates remaining bearish and suggesting many traders are still positioned defensively or betting against sustained upside.  Comparing Current Conditions To Previous Bitcoin Recoveries Bitcoin has now entered a disbelief phase as funding rates stay bearish. Analyst Darkfost has highlighted on X that funding rates have remained negative even as the BTC price continues to move higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 Meanwhile, this BTC chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30-day cumulative evolution of the funding rates on Binance, offering a clearer view of when funding rates entered a sustained negative trend. The indicator currently sits around -4.5%, underscoring how aggressively traders have continued betting against the market in recent months. For comparison, when BTC began emerging from the bear market in late 2022, funding rates on Binance fell even further, reaching nearly -7% on a 30-day sun basis. Whenever such a strong consensus formed, it would help create a bottom and fuel the rally that was beginning to develop. According to Darkfost, despite the market entering a phase of disbelief, traders still prefer to fight the trend rather than follow it. A trader known as Max Traders on X has also noted that Bitcoin funding rates haven’t been this negative in a long while. Historically, such extremes typically emerge when the market crowd is heavily positioned to one side. Despite BTC’s recent strength, many participants are positioning for a reversal, even as price action continues to suggest a strong short bias. However, this kind of crowded positioning often creates the opposite conditions for moves in that direction. Thus, if BTC price manages to maintain its current levels or push higher, the buildup of short positions could trigger a squeeze that would accelerate the move upward. The Conditions That Could Lead To A Bitcoin Reversal Bitcoin’s recent upside has been largely driven by institutional spot buying pressure over the last few weeks, with each major move higher supported by strong inflows visible in spot volume data. Crypto trader CGT Trader explained that the Coinbase Premium Index has also confirmed the same trend, which recorded a significant spike in institutional demand at the recent local top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 Since then, the BTC price has continued to grind higher, but the institutional spot buying has failed to make a new high. This creates a growing divergence that suggests a potential reversal. However, if this downtrend continues and large players start selling, the move could be retraced much faster than the recent upward rally. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price fails to break above the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market stuck in this range, attention is shifting to the possibility that Bitcoin could finally shift direction, potentially ending the current compression.  A major part of this discussion is the CME gap around $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing over periods when traditional trading is closed, such as weekends, while crypto trades continuously.  Drop To $60,000 Still On The Table Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on its 12-hour chart. The expectation being highlighted is that over $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level.  Even with that strong technical catalyst, Fencer also warned that the outcome may not remain purely bullish. He cautioned that the move could set up a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? The broader consequence could be a decline toward February lows around $60,000. If that scenario plays out, it would imply roughly a 26% retrace from that level, potentially reigniting bearish sentiment across the market. However, another perspective is coming from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional argues for a different outlook, contesting the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past week is driven only by leverage. The report frames the rally as potentially stronger than it looks, pointing to real demand rather than simply borrowing and forced positioning.  What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally? The study lists several indicators supporting its view. Rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are said to be near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand. It also notes accumulation by long-term holders, which is described as concentrating supply into “strong hands.”  While short liquidations can help trigger upward momentum, the report argues that similar squeezes have historically happened before—yet sustained rallies tend to last when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside A key area highlighted by the institutional framing is approximately $80,000, described as the short-term holder cost basis. According to this interpretation, reclaiming around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening.  If Bitcoin fails and rejects that level, the implication would be that weakness could persist rather than a durable uptrend forming. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been dwindling massively in recent days. Coins are moving off exchanges at a steady pace, removing available supply ready for purchase.  Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline and are moving into stronger hands. On the other hand, data tracking the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit shows that only about half of the addresses are in profit. Bitcoin Is Disappearing From Exchange Order Books CryptoQuant data tracking Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms shows the aggregate balance has fallen to approximately 2.671 million BTC as of April 24. Notably, reserves in exchanges have fallen from 2.68 million BTC on April 19, with the sharpest leg of the drawdown occurring during Bitcoin’s price climb above $77,700. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Whenever Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces the liquid supply available for immediate selling. This kind of supply reduction will always support price strength, especially when there is enough demand. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued falling throughout the cycle, even as prices corrected. However, perhaps the most telling development lies in how Bitcoin ownership is changing beneath the surface. CryptoQuant’s STH/LTH Supply vs. ETF Flows data, which tracks 30-day position changes across participant cohorts, reveals a decisive redistribution of Bitcoin ownership from weaker hands to stronger ones. Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have added 303,000 BTC to their positions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 16,800 BTC in inflows. Strategy has also added 53,000 BTC to its holdings over the same period.  Meanwhile, short-term holders, the cohort most sensitive to price movements and most likely to sell into strength or panic on weakness, have reduced their aggregate position by about 290,000 BTC. Only Half Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit Even as Bitcoin is being taken off crypto exchanges, profitability metrics show a more subdued outlook of how many investors are currently making money. On-chain data shows the seven-day moving average of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is currently at 52.3%, according to insights from The Block. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell At its peak, above $126,000 in October 2025, 99.66% of the supply was in profit. The drop to near 50% is a reflection of the impact of the correction that followed, bringing a large portion of the market back to breakeven levels. Still, Bitcoin’s recent rally above $77,000 pushed many more holders into profit. Only about 44.1% of the Bitcoin supply was held in profit on April 2. Readings above 90% are a reflection of late-stage bull markets. Therefore, based on that context, the current reading of 52.3% can be viewed through a bullish lens.  The three data streams (declining exchange reserves, net accumulation by long-term holders and institutions) and a supply-in-profit reading at the midpoint show Bitcoin is currently in a period of consolidation. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Etherealize, an institutional adoption and advocacy group backed by the Ethereum Foundation, has made a bold prediction, suggesting that ETH could one day reach $250,000 before Bitcoin (BTC). The group said that if Ethereum can capture a share of the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, the upside could be massive. That target is significantly higher than ETH’s current price of around $2,300, and would require a major shift in how global markets value the cryptocurrency. It would also mean Ethereum could become more than a smart contract chain and grow into a top store of value, similar to Bitcoin. How Ethereum Could Hit $250,000 Before Bitcoin In an X post, Etherealize published a detailed report outlining the factors that could push Ethereum toward the ambitious $250,000 valuation. For Ethereum to reach that price level, the group suggested that the cryptocurrency would need to be treated as a global monetary asset. That means pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks, and public firms would need to buy and hold ETH at scale rather than relying solely on Bitcoin. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts A 30% Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000, Here’s When Etherealize also pointed to supply dynamics as a major factor that could support price growth. The group explained that when ETH is staked or locked, fewer coins trade freely on the market. As a result, if demand rises while liquidity remains tight, upward price pressure could build more quickly, driving ETH higher. Beyond supply-and-demand trends, Etherealize also identified Ethereum’s ability to generate yield as a key driver of price growth. They noted that, unlike BTC, Ethereum can offer staking rewards to holders. Therefore, if global investors begin to view ETH as both a growth asset and an income-producing asset, it could strengthen its appeal as a long-term holding. Over time, the growing demand for cryptocurrency could fuel an upward momentum that could propel it toward the projected $250,000 target.  ETH Price Outlook Dependent On Global Monetary Value According to Etherealize, price action alone would not be enough to carry Ethereum to a $250,000 valuation. Instead, the group noted that that ambitious target depends on Ethereum capturing the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, which is about $31 trillion.  Etherealize argued that if Ethereum were to acquire part of that value, and move it across its roughly 121 million circulating supply, it could support a much higher valuation over time. Once this happens, they noted that Ethereum could begin competing for existing global stores of value. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Cycle Is Different: Crypto Expert Reveals When Price Will Cross $100,000 Again Etherealize also highlighted Ethereum’s role as a programmable blockchain that already supports a wide range of activity. In addition to being a payments currency, the crypto network also enables stablecoin issuance and real-world asset tokenization. This existing use case could also be a potential driver for ETH’s price.  Ultimately, Ethereum reaching $250,000 before Bitcoin is still a long shot. However, Etherealize believes that if ETH can become the base layer for global finance, attract sustained institutional demand, and capture value currently stored in gold and Bitcoin, that ambitious target could move from pure speculation to a possible long-term outcome.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, arguing that the current drawdown still fits the asset’s historic four-year cycle despite a more favorable regulatory backdrop in Washington. Speaking on the Thinking Crypto podcast from the Solana Policy Summit, the SkyBridge Capital founder framed the market weakness as a cyclical bear phase rather than a structural break. He said investors had expected a stronger policy-driven rally after the change in US administration, but that whales and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand. “I’m old school. I’ve been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin,” Scaramucci said. “You’ve just crossed the halfway mark of the halving and so you’re on your way to the back half of this thing. You typically don’t get any type of real recovery until the first quarter of next year.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally Scaramucci added that Bitcoin’s timeline may have been slightly accelerated by macro factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariff-related messaging and geopolitical conflict. Still, he said Bitcoin has remained “fairly sticky” during the war period referenced in the interview. “You probably won’t see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter,” he said, pointing to “October possibly November” as a more realistic window. Why Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Not Been Enough The comments address a central frustration across the crypto market: why prices have failed to respond more forcefully to a pro-crypto administration, institutional ETF access, and improving legislative momentum. According to Scaramucci, the answer lies partly in supply. ETF activity has brought new buyers into Bitcoin, including older investors using traditional brokerage channels, but that demand has met heavy distribution from whales and early holders. “You’re still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it’s just not enough,” he said. “You got whales that are selling into the — the OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. And so what they do is they fulfill the prophecy of the four-year cycle by acting on the four-year cycle and selling.” He said whales were “pumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000,” which in his view contributed to Bitcoin falling into the high $60,000s. Scaramucci also tied Bitcoin’s next phase of institutional adoption to US market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. He argued that the idea Bitcoin is “valueless” is now “completely off the table,” but said banks are unlikely to move aggressively without clearer rules. “If you don’t get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you’re not going to get the banks to really open up,” he said. He cited experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, while arguing that real adoption requires major money-center banks to offer custody, yield, and borrowing against Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, he said, investors will not see “real full-throated adoption.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High Scaramucci also criticized the political and lobbying dynamics around stablecoin yield and crypto legislation. He said banks are pushing back because of their entrenched market position, while warning that holding out for a perfect bill could delay progress. “I’m a little bit more practical. I probably would have tried to get something done and I would not make the perfect deal the enemy of progress,” he said. “The best example I can give you is the Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He did not want that to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to have it happen.” Bitcoin Reserve Debate Still Politicized On the question of whether the US government should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, Scaramucci said yes, but only if the issue can move beyond partisan framing. “It’s very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if it’s a partisan issue,” he said. “If we can get this to be a transformative post-partisan what’s right or wrong for the country, what’s right or wrong for the American taxpayer, then the answer is yes.” He said he would not aggressively push the issue before broader consensus forms, instead favoring an approach where government-held Bitcoin from legal actions is retained rather than sold. He also said he was unsure whether the US government had completed an audit of its Bitcoin holdings. At press time, BTC traded at $77,844. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a “phase of disbelief” rather than a clean bullish reset. That divergence matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, that kind of setup can cut both ways: it can signal fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if bearish positioning is forced to unwind. Darkfost pointed to the 30-day cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the market remains out of sync with price. “We’ve been hearing a lot about funding rates lately, as they remain negative even while Bitcoin continues to move higher,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Right On Schedule: Analyst Reveals When The Bull Run Will Begin “This chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30 day cumulative evolution of funding rates on Binance, making it easier to clearly identify when funding entered a sustained negative trend.” His comparison was to late 2022, when Bitcoin was beginning to emerge from the bear market. At that point, Binance funding rates kept falling and reached as low as -7% on a 30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator sits around -4.5%, which, in his view, shows how aggressively traders have continued betting against the move in recent months. Darkfost’s argument is not simply that funding is negative, but that the persistence of that negativity reflects a market still trying to fade price strength. “Each time such a strong consensus has formed, it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that was beginning to develop,” he said. “As I mentioned several days ago, the market has entered a phase of disbelief, where traders still prefer fighting the trend rather than following it.” Bitcoin Derivatives Market In A Regime Of Caution On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same backdrop from a more defensive angle. In his April 23 market note, he argued that Bitcoin’s derivatives structure is “rapidly losing its bullish structure” as the short-term futures premium over spot nearly disappears. The 7-day basis SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in just four days, while the funding rate 7DMA remained negative at -0.00945%. For Adler, the message is straightforward: the market is no longer willing to pay up for long leverage. “Basis 7D SMA has sharply compressed and is almost at zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has nearly vanished,” he wrote. “This is not just a local cooldown – it is nearly a complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the short-term derivatives structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High He made a similar point on funding. “What matters is not just the negative reading itself, but its persistence,” Adler said. “This is not a one-off spike or a panic anomaly within a single hour. This is a steady accumulation of bearish positioning, where the market continues to pay for short exposure.” Taken together, the two analysts are reading the same data through slightly different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive condition for the ongoing rally, especially if consensus remains heavily skewed against price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium and is shifting into a more cautious regime unless basis and funding recover. At press time, BTC traded at $77,836. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com