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Bitcoin’s demand backdrop has weakened sharply, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who said an on-chain gauge of apparent demand has fallen to its most bearish reading of the year. Darkfost, posting on X under the handle @Darkfost_Coc, shared a CryptoQuant chart showing Bitcoin Apparent Demand on a 30-day sum basis falling deep into negative territory. The analyst said the metric is now approaching minus 147,000 BTC, marking its weakest level since the beginning of 2026. “Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has just reached its most negative level since the beginning of the year,” Darkfost wrote. “With an estimate now approaching -147,000 BTC, we have to go back to December 2025 to find market sentiment this bearish.” Apparent Demand Turns Deeply Negative The chart tracks Bitcoin’s apparent demand alongside price, showing a transition from strongly positive readings through parts of mid-2025 to prolonged negative demand in late 2025 and again in 2026. The latest drop is notable because it comes after Bitcoin’s price recovered from its early-2026 lows, suggesting that the rebound has not been matched by a clear improvement in structural spot demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Surge Does Not Reflect Real Demand — Here’s Why Darkfost described Apparent Demand as “the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of supply that has remained inactive for more than one year.” In practical terms, the metric is intended to assess whether accumulation from longer-term holders is strong enough to absorb newly issued Bitcoin. “In other words, this metric helps estimate whether structural accumulation is strong enough to absorb the new supply created by the network,” the analyst wrote. That interpretation frames the current reading as more than a short-term sentiment gauge. If apparent demand is deeply negative, it suggests that the market is not showing enough underlying absorption to offset issuance and support a more stable bullish phase. Futures Momentum Faces A Spot Demand Problem Darkfost’s core argument is that Bitcoin’s rally structure may be vulnerable if derivatives activity is doing too much of the work. Futures markets can push price higher, accelerate liquidations and amplify directional moves, but they do not necessarily represent durable accumulation. “This development suggests that demand continues to gradually contract,” Darkfost said. “Without a meaningful recovery in spot demand, it becomes difficult to imagine Bitcoin sustaining a durable rally purely through the momentum driven by futures markets.” Related Reading: Glassnode Says Bitcoin Options Traders Are Still Positioned For Trouble The point is especially relevant in a market where price can move quickly on leverage, positioning and liquidity shifts. A futures-led move may still produce sharp upside, but Darkfost argued that sustained bullish phases generally require a firmer spot foundation. “Futures can support short term momentum and amplify price movements,” the analyst wrote, “but sustainable bullish phases generally require genuine spot demand, as derivatives alone do not allow the market to build a stable and solid foundation.” Bearish Signal, Long-Term Setup? The analyst did not frame the latest reading as purely negative. While the short-term implication is bearish, Darkfost noted that heavily pessimistic demand environments have historically been worth monitoring for long-term investors. “That said, even if this situation appears relatively bearish in the short term, these types of environments have historically also created interesting opportunities for long term investors capable of remaining patient,” the analyst wrote. At press time, BTC traded at $77,300. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $76,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $77,450 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $76,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $76,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,050 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $77,450 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains Bitcoin price remained supported above the $75,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $76,200 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $76,500 and $76,600 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,100 swing high to the $74,209 low. However, the bears are active near $77,000. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,050 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $76,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,050, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,450 level or the 83.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,100 swing high to the $74,209 low. The first key resistance is near the $78,000 level. A close above the $78,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $81,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,450 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,150 level. The first major support is near the $75,650 level. The next support is now near the $76,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $74,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,150, followed by $75,650. Major Resistance Levels – $77,450 and $79,000.

After a terrible start to the weekend, the Bitcoin price jumped back to life on the back of news of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran. However, ignoring the potential impact of fresh geopolitical news or events, the current price structure suggests that new investors would be catching a falling knife. According to a chart highlighted on the X platform, the Bitcoin price appears bound for a drop to around $72,000, at least in the short term. BTC Price Trading In Ascending Channel Pattern Prominent chartist Aksel Kibar took to the social media platform X to share an interesting layout of the Bitcoin price, suggesting the coin might be on its way down to around $72,500. This highlighted chart shows the formation of an ascending channel on the BTC daily timeframe over the past few months. Related Reading: Key Volume Signals Are Driving XRP Momentum Amid Market Uncertainty For context, an ascending channel is a technical analysis pattern characterized by two major (upward-sloping) trendlines: the upper line connecting the higher highs and the lower line connecting the higher lows. Within this framework, the upper boundary acts as resistance while the lower trendline provides a support cushion to the asset’s price (i.e., Bitcoin price). Typically, an ascending channel shows the persistence of an upward trend, with the Bitcoin price forming multiple higher highs and higher lows since February. However, the premier cryptocurrency recently formed a swing high around $82,500 and is currently undergoing a retracement that could see its value fall to as low as $72,500. What to watch is what happens at the lower boundary if the Bitcoin price does fall to $72,500 over the next few days. On an optimistic note, the flagship cryptocurrency could bounce back and forge back towards the upper trendline if this highlighted support level holds strong. In this case, the resistance region to watch would be just above $86,000, where there would likely be a confluence of the 365-day moving average and the upper boundary line. The market leader could enjoy further significant upside if the Bitcoin price breaks above this resistance region. However, there is also a chance that the BTC price could lose the $72,500 support, which could trigger a wave of bearish pressure. If this scenario plays out, the premier cryptocurrency could fall as low as $60,000, where Kibar thinks a short-term reversal could form. In any case, Kibar noted that he would only consider entering a long position above the 365-day moving average, a major indicator of the start of a bull market. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $76,762, reflecting a 2% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Transaction Volume Crashing Could Do To The Price Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The price of Bitcoin seemed set for another round of pain over the weekend after falling below the psychological $75,000 level on Saturday morning. However, the premier cryptocurrency has somewhat recovered and is looking to reclaim $77,000 as of this writing. At the same time, an increase in the supply of Bitcoin’s long-term investors was also observed on the day, although the signal might not be what it seems. Here’s Why BTC LTH Supply Data Is Skewed In a recent post on the X platform, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost revealed a surge in the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders (LTH) over the past few days. However, this supposed rise in LTH activity might not be as relevant to BTC’s growth as the data would ordinarily suggest. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Thesis Goes Big: 39 Trillion Reasons To Buy, Says Gemini Founder Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Darkfost shared that the long-term holder supply has increased from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC over the past two days. The on-chain analyst noted that this metric is among the numerous data points affected by Coinbase’s movement of roughly 800,000 BTC in November 2025.   Between November 22nd and 23rd, the US-domiciled crypto exchange shuffled 800,000 BTC (worth nearly $70 billion, at the time) between its internal wallets. As Darkfost mentioned, this maintenance transfer destroyed old LTH UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) and created new but skewed Bitcoin datasets. The crypto analyst wrote on X: As a result, datasets across multiple platforms incorporated this movement, affecting UTXO-based metrics, age and value cohorts, STH/LTH cost basis, realized value, volumes, and more. Saturday, May 23rd marked six months since the Bitcoin transfer, with the moved BTC now fully transitioned from the short-term holder (STH) to the long-term holder supply. Typically, an increase in LTH supply signals increased accumulation and a growing conviction among the most seasoned crypto investors. However, market participants might want to exercise caution when making decisions with this on-chain signal, considering that it does truly reflect an increase in investor demand. What’s Next For Bitcoin Price? In a separate post on the X platform, Darkfost identified the next major resistance level for the Bitcoin price. Highlighting the STH cost basis, the analyst said that this resistance currently sits just above the $80,000 mark. According to Darkfost, the short-term investors seem to be choosing to cut their losses rather than holding for a reversal, as evidenced by resistance the Bitcoin price faces at their average cost basis. Hence, the premier cryptocurrency needs a sustained break above the $80,000 ceiling for its recovery journey to continue. As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $76,490, reflecting a 1% price increase in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Transaction Volume Crashing Could Do To The Price Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is showing increasing signs of weakness as bearish pressure continues building below a critical technical level. With key support zones now under threat and reversal patterns beginning to take shape, BTC could be entering a decisive pullback phase that may determine the market’s next major direction.  Buyers Continue Losing Momentum As Decline Deepens Crypto analyst Kamile Uray stated that Bitcoin buyers continue to appear weak as the market faces another wave of downside pressure. The analyst explained that if BTC breaks below the key bottom at $74,929, it could confirm the completion of the final shoulder in a developing OBO structure while remaining under the previous low near $76,044. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Trendline Resistance Is Holding Price Back, Can It Push It Below $60,000? Analyst Answers Unless Bitcoin can achieve a decisive 4-hour candle close above $78,213, the bearish trend is likely to continue. A sustained breakdown below $74,929 could open the door for a deeper decline toward the $71,000–$68,000 region, which has been identified as a major Fibonacci support zone. Kamile Uray further explained that if stronger buying momentum eventually emerges from those lower levels, Bitcoin could attempt another recovery rally. During any upside move, the market would need to overcome resistance around $98,000, followed by the larger resistance region between $107,000 and $109,000. However, if Bitcoin struggles to maintain strength above the recent peak near $126,199, the risk of another major corrective phase would remain active. In the case of a much deeper decline, Kamile Uray emphasized that the $60,000 level stands out as a critical long-term support area that could play a major role in future market direction. Bitcoin Bullish Reversal Structure Begins Turning Bearish Another crypto analyst Merry__PT has noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action is undergoing a significant structural shift. While the market initially formed a recognizable W bottom, a classic signal of a bullish reversal, this structure is now evolving into a Head and Shoulders top, which is historically viewed as a symbol of a bearish reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Remains Alive Despite Bearish Pressure Below $78,800 The most critical technical element to monitor moving forward is the blue horizontal base neckline. This support zone is acting as the foundation for both the current structure and the potential for a larger trend shift. Once this neckline is clearly defined and widely acknowledged by market participants, the Head and Shoulders formation will gain significant validity.  If the price confirms a breach below this level, the pattern is likely to transition from a mere technical observation into a genuine catalyst for a sustained pullback. Beyond this structural pivot, the upcoming monthly candle close is key, acting as a pivotal axis for gauging future sentiment and market direction. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s transaction volume is falling alongside its price. At first glance, that sounds bearish because weak activity is usually a result of weak demand, lower participation, and a lack of momentum. However, technical analysis shows the historical pattern conveys a more complicated story. Technical analysis from CryptoCon shows Bitcoin’s transaction volume strength falling close to the green low-volume band that indicated previous cycle bottoms. The falling transaction volume is also a good thing for traders looking for the cycle bottom. Bitcoin Transaction Volume Falling Into Bottoming Zone Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s volume shows that the transaction volume strength indicator, which tracks the relative weight of Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction activity against its price history, is compressing toward the low-volume zone that has reliably marked the end of bear markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks 14-Year Support For The First Time In History, Analyst Predicts $50,000 Target As shown in the green band at the bottom of the chart below, which is labeled as the low transaction volume area, prior crosses into this region were followed closely by important bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. That is why the current decline in transaction volume cannot be read only as a negative signal. Heavy transaction activity often appears closer to cycle tops, when the market is crowded. Examples of these are shown in the chart below in 2017, 2021, and 2025. Low transaction volume, on the other hand, tends to appear when interest has faded, which is a good sign. However, according to crypto analyst CryptoCon, Bitcoin is not quite in cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. In 2014, it spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel. The issue is that “close” is not the same as “confirmed.” Bitcoin may be entering the part of the cycle where sellers are getting tired, but the data does not yet show the kind of final reset in previous long-term bottoms. What This Could Do To The Bitcoin Price The immediate implication is that the Bitcoin price may stay vulnerable in the short term. There are also other data points converging in that direction, but they have not yet aligned. For instance, the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that has always marked cycle tops and bottoms, shows that the bottom is not in yet. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom? When the price is falling, and transaction volume is also shrinking, it often shows that buyers are not yet stepping in with enough force to reverse the trend. This lines up with recent market developments, with Bitcoin down by 3.7% in the past 24 hours and trading at $74,520 at the time of writing. First, the Bitcoin price may continue to lower or remain under pressure. Then, once transaction volume reaches the deeper low-volume band and stays there long enough to confirm exhaustion, the setup could begin to look more like a cycle bottom within one month. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Chain Mind has indicated that the Bitcoin price has yet to bottom. He alluded to historical performance, which shows that BTC has never bottomed without touching the EMA 300.  Bitcoin Price Unlikely To Bottom Before Touching This Level In an X post, Chain Mind indicated that the Bitcoin price is unlikely to bottom out without first touching the EMA300. He noted that BTC has never bottomed without touching this level, as it did in 2020 and 2022, when it tagged the weekly EMA300 right before the cycle low. Specifically, Bitcoin’s bottom came 10% below the EMA in 2020 and 15% in 2022.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Repeating This Midterm Pattern That Sends Price Tumbling 15% On Average The analyst noted that in this cycle, the Bitcoin price bounced from $60,000 without ever reaching the EMA, suggesting the real bottom isn’t in. He added that if the pattern repeats, BTC must drop to around $58,000, marking the last bottom in this bear cycle. In another X post, the analyst indicated that BTC was mirroring the price action during the 2022 bear market.  This came as he revealed that the Bitcoin price had just rejected the 200MA, a move that also occurred in 2022. He explained that this confirms the bearish macro structure after BTC tagged the 200D MA again at $82,000. As such, if the 2022 pattern repeats, the leading crypto must drop 40% to 60% from the rejection point. He added that this means that the real cycle bottom must be around the $50,000 to $55,000 range.  Bitcoin is once again in a downtrend after failing to hold above the psychological $80,000 level. This comes amid bearish catalysts such as the US-Iran war, rising inflation, and bets of a Fed rate hike this year. BTC’s latest decline came after the SEC delayed its approval of tokenized stocks.  The Plan Remains The Same For BTC Crypto analyst Kaleo declared that the plan remains the same for the Bitcoin price despite traders on Kalshi betting against a rally to $100,000 this year. He urged market participants to zoom out and be more bullish. As for what could happen, he predicts a retest in the lower $70,000 range, then a rebound to between $80,000 and $90,000, and a range there for the summer.  Related Reading: If You’re Looking To Bitcoin Above $90,000, This Analyst Says To Watch This Bearish OB Level Once that happens, the analyst predicts that the Bitcoin price will then rally above $100,000 and reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the fall and winter. Notably, the CLARITY Act could pass between now and then, which could spark a massive rally for the leading crypto.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,400, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

After a steep downturn in early February, the Bitcoin price saw a significant turnaround over the following two months. While the month of May initially continued on this positive note, the premier cryptocurrency seems to have cooled off over the past week — aligning with BTC’s track record of not registering three consecutive months of positive price action during a bear-market year. Interestingly, recent on-chain observations suggest that trouble might be brewing for the Bitcoin price, at least in the near term.  Could The Bears Take Over The Bitcoin Market Again? In a new post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Bitcoin Vector explained that the current waning bullish momentum might be a more damning signal for Bitcoin than it is perceived to be. According to the market intelligence firm, BTC’s price momentum doesn’t have to turn deeply negative before investors pay attention. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks 14-Year Support For The First Time In History, Analyst Predicts $50,000 Target Bitcoin Vector highlighted that the Glassnode momentum indicator, which measures the speed and strength of price movements (in a specific direction) within a period, has witnessed a sharp downturn in recent days. The analytics platform noted that while the focus would be on the momentum turning negative, the +0.5 mark is the level to watch. According to Bitcoin Vector’s analysis, price momentum crossing below +0.5 is the first signal that the upward trend might be fading and sellers might be overtaking the market. The analytics firm revealed that the last two times the flagship cryptocurrency lost this critical level, the BTC price structure shifted. Those last two times include: October 2025, when the Bitcoin price suddenly crashed to just above $100,000, and February 2026, when the market leader fell to around $62,000. Bitcoin Vector noted that these moves were characterized by a weakened spot CVD (cumulative volume delta), a return of seller control, and a deteriorating price structure. Recent on-chain data show that price momentum remains above +0.5 — albeit at around +0.7. “But if it loses that level while Spot CVD keeps weakening, caution rises fast. That would be the first signal that deterioration is starting beneath the surface,” Bitcoin concluded. Ultimately, the world’s largest cryptocurrency seems to be at a critical juncture, with the waning price momentum potentially signaling what is to come over the next few weeks.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $75,950, reflecting an over 2% price decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Trendline Resistance Is Holding Price Back, Can It Push It Below $60,000? Analyst Answers Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

A crypto founder and pundit recently took to the social media platform X to highlight a notable divergence between the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets. According to the analyst, the world’s leading cryptocurrencies could be nearing levels that would soon reverse their current price trajectories. Bitcoin In High-Pressure Environment As Ethereum Market Leans Neutral In a May 22nd post on the X platform, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed that the Bitcoin market is currently in a state where its return efficiency is weakening relative to short-term risks. This observation is based on the negative readings on Bitcoin’s annualized Sharpe Ratio. For context, the Sharpe ratio measures how much extra return an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) generates relative to the additional risk it entails. Higher readings typically suggest stronger risk-adjusted performance, while a negative reading indicates that investors are transacting without worthwhile rewards on the table. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates Near Lows As Market Searches For Direction Wedson noted that, while Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is within negative bounds, Ethereum’s stands quite close to the zero mark — a sign that the market is on almost neutral grounds sentiment-wise. In this scenario, Ethereum is neither offering strong risk-adjusted returns nor signaling extreme deterioration. Current Conditions Similar To Historical Price Bottom Precedents: Analyst While present conditions within the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are essentially short-term, Wedson highlighted what their simultaneous prolongation would signal. According to the market pundit, extended stretches below zero have frequently coincided with several of Bitcoin’s weakest periods in terms of return-versus-risk. However, these phases have historically emerged near price bottoms. This is often where bearish sentiment, panic selling, and investor exhaustion become widespread, setting the path for new bullish pressure to eventually overcome the bears.  Nonetheless, the Alphractal founder mentioned as a caveat that the current conditions do not confirm that a bottom will be established. Instead, it merely highlights that the cryptocurrency market might soon enter zones typically associated with elevated pessimism, low reward potential, and risk stress. It is this type of highly pessimistic environment that often develops before major trend reversals play out. Until clear confirmations have thus been identified, investors and other market participants are advised to act with caution.  As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $75,642, down by 2.5% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the price of ETH stands at around $2,060, reflecting an over 3.2% in the past day. Related Reading: Solana Vs Ethereum: What’s Holding Growth Back? 3 Reasons SOL Is Still Lagging Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s drop back below $78,000 after a rejection near recent local range highs has left options traders positioned cautiously, according to new data shared by Glassnode. The firm said the options market continues to show compressed volatility expectations, elevated downside hedging demand, and a gamma structure that could amplify weakness if BTC moves toward the mid-$75,000 area. The move follows a failed attempt to hold near the upper end of the recent local range. While spot price action has softened, Glassnode’s thread focused on what derivatives positioning suggests beneath the surface: traders are still paying up for protection rather than aggressively chasing upside. “BTC broke back below $78K after being rejected near the recent local range highs,” Glassnode wrote. “Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.” Bitcoin Options Traders Stay Defensive One of the clearest signals came from implied volatility. Glassnode said BTC implied volatility resumed its decline after a short-lived rebound earlier in the week. One-week implied volatility now sits near 31%, down from 39% earlier this week, while longer-dated implied volatility also moved slightly lower. The implication is that the market is not yet pricing a disorderly breakout in either direction, even as downside hedging remains elevated. “The market is pricing a quieter near term environment again,” Glassnode said. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red That calm, however, is not the same as bullish positioning. Glassnode said 25-delta skew remains “firmly in put territory” after the rejection near $82,000. One-week skew briefly touched 24% before easing, a sign that puts continued to trade at a strong premium to calls. “Traders continue to favor downside protection,” the firm wrote. The same caution appeared in Glassnode’s skew index ratio, which compares upside and downside implied volatility. Most tenors remain below 1, meaning puts are richer than calls. The exception is the six-month tenor, where the ratio still shows a call premium, suggesting that longer-dated upside demand has not disappeared entirely. Nearer-term positioning is more defensive. Glassnode said upside demand remains limited outside longer-dated structures, while the broader options surface continues to show investors seeking protection against further downside. Realized and implied volatility are also diverging. One-month realized volatility has fallen toward 27%, while one-month implied volatility remains closer to 35%. That leaves the volatility risk premium near recent highs, according to Glassnode. “Options still price more movement than BTC has recently delivered,” the firm said. The gamma profile adds another layer of risk. Glassnode identified a large short gamma cluster near $75,000, with roughly $3.2 billion of negative exposure below spot. In options markets, short gamma positioning can force dealers to hedge in ways that reinforce spot moves, potentially increasing volatility if price approaches key levels. Related Reading: Wintermute Says Bitcoin Rally Was A Squeeze, Low $70,000s Loom At the same time, positive gamma clusters near $78,000 and $80,000 may act as resistance. That setup leaves Bitcoin boxed between nearby upside friction and a lower zone where downside movement could accelerate. “This structure can accelerate downside volatility near 75K,” Glassnode wrote. Flows over the past week also leaned defensive. Put buying slightly led the tape, representing 25% of premium, while calls bought also accounted for 25%. Call selling remained elevated at 25.7% of flow, reinforcing the picture of muted upside appetite. Glassnode’s conclusion was direct: front-end implied volatility keeps compressing, the volatility spread is widening, skew remains in put territory, only the six-month skew index ratio shows a call premium, flows lean defensive, and a short gamma acceleration zone sits below spot. For traders, the takeaway is less about outright panic than asymmetry. Bitcoin options are not pricing a major volatility expansion in the immediate term, but the market is still paying for downside protection and showing limited confidence in near-term upside. Unless spot can reclaim the nearby resistance zones around $78,000 and $80,000, the options market appears positioned for continued caution. At press time, BTC traded at $76,744. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin derivatives traders are moving back into the market after an eight-month deleveraging phase, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, with Binance futures open interest now back above its 180-day moving average. The shift suggests risk appetite is returning after one of the longest reductions in leveraged exposure since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Traders Are Returning Darkfost said the deleveraging period began after the October 10 event, as Bitcoin’s correction coincided with a worsening global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. In that environment, traders reduced exposure across derivatives markets, with Binance futures activity showing a sustained contraction. “Since the October 10 event, Bitcoin has gone through a prolonged deleveraging phase across derivatives markets, represented here through Binance futures activity,” Darkfost wrote. “Following the October 10 event, combined with the deterioration in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, traders largely opted to reduce risk. This deleveraging phase on Binance lasted roughly 8 months.” The analyst’s framework identifies deleveraging periods when open interest falls below its 180-day moving average. In market terms, that suggests futures activity is declining as corrections force liquidations, position closures and a broader reduction in investor exposure. For Bitcoin, the latest stretch was notable not only for its duration, but for how closely it resembled the setup seen in 2022 before the FTX collapse triggered another wave of liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red The turning point appears to have emerged in early May. Binance open interest has risen from $6.4 billion in March to roughly $8.96 billion, Darkfost said, moving back above its 180-day average of about $8.75 billion. That crossover matters because it signals that derivatives activity is no longer in contraction relative to its medium-term trend. “Since early May, however, the trend appears to be shifting,” the analyst wrote. “Binance Open Interest has risen from $6.4B in March to around $8.96B today, moving back above its 180 day average currently sitting near $8.75B. This effectively signals the end of the deleveraging period.” Related Reading: Wintermute Says Bitcoin Rally Was A Squeeze, Low $70,000s Loom The return of futures positioning has likely reinforced Bitcoin’s rebound from its corrective phase, according to the analyst. As open interest rises, more traders are deploying capital into directional and leveraged strategies, adding liquidity and potentially amplifying price moves. In this case, Darkfost argued that the renewed participation has “clearly contributed to the ongoing upward correction.” Still, the analyst stopped short of describing the move as a durable recovery. The distinction is important. A rise in open interest can mark renewed confidence, but it can also reflect short-term speculative positioning after a sharp drawdown. Darkfost framed the current move as a rebound trade rather than confirmation that Bitcoin has fully exited the pressure that began in October. “Despite a macro environment that has continued to deteriorate, Bitcoin’s sharp correction attracted more speculative traders looking to play a rebound,” he wrote. “That said, this trend remains highly fragile, and these traders could exit just as quickly as they entered if BTC resumes the correction that started back in October.” That fragility is the main risk in the setup. The same derivatives flows now supporting the rebound could reverse if spot momentum weakens or macro conditions deteriorate further. In that scenario, recently added leverage would become a source of downside pressure rather than support, especially if traders who entered for a rebound move are forced to unwind quickly. At press time, BTC traded at $77,479. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is struggling below $80,000 as the market faces uncertainty that extends well beyond the usual price action concerns. The breakdown from key levels has been accompanied by a broader reassessment of the macro environment — and XWIN Research Japan has identified a structural shift at the highest level of global monetary policy that may define the conditions Bitcoin operates in for the foreseeable future. Related Reading: Chainlink Sees Historic On-Chain Surge While Exchange Supply Keeps Shrinking – Details The Federal Reserve is entering a new era. Kevin Warsh has officially taken over as Fed Chair, and the market’s attention has shifted from the immediate question of rate cuts to a more fundamental one: whether the Fed’s operating philosophy itself has changed. That distinction matters more for risk assets than any single rate decision. Warsh is not a conventional Fed Chair. He has been a long-standing critic of excessive quantitative easing and the concept of a central bank that continuously intervenes to support financial markets during periods of stress. The regime he inherits — and the one he is expected to reshape — is being read by markets as a transition from what XWIN Research Japan describes as a market-rescuing Fed toward a discipline-focused one. For previous generations of Bitcoin investors, Fed philosophy was a secondary consideration. That era has ended. ETFs, institutional allocations, hedge fund positioning, and the maturation of Bitcoin’s derivatives infrastructure have transformed BTC into a global liquidity-sensitive asset — one that now responds to shifts in financial conditions with a directness that previous cycles never required participants to account for. Three Signals That Will Tell You How Bitcoin Responds to the New Fed The XWIN Research Japan report identifies the specific on-chain indicators most likely to register the impact of the Warsh Fed before price action confirms anything. The first is the Coinbase Premium — the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and offshore exchanges like Binance. During periods of strong US institutional spot demand, the premium stays positive. If concerns about prolonged high rates or continued quantitative tightening suppress institutional buying appetite, the Coinbase Premium turns negative first, before exchange prices reflect the reduced demand. It is the earliest available signal of whether American institutional capital is retreating or holding. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index | Source: CryptoQuant The second is Bitcoin Exchange Netflow. Rising inflows to exchanges typically precede selling pressure or defensive repositioning. A risk-off environment triggered by a discipline-focused Fed would likely manifest in higher exchange inflows and increased short-term holder selling — the behavioral signature of participants reducing exposure before the price fully reflects their caution. The third is the leverage structure the report has already identified as the dominant feature of Bitcoin’s current market. Rallies built on short-covering rather than genuine spot accumulation are structurally fragile — and a Fed environment that does not rescue markets removes the implicit backstop that has historically encouraged re-leveraging after corrections. The irony the report preserves is worth sitting with. A stricter central bank that refuses to rescue markets could pressure Bitcoin in the short term through tighter financial conditions and reduced institutional appetite. Over the medium term, that same strictness could strengthen Bitcoin’s fundamental appeal — a politically neutral store of value operating entirely outside the fiat system that Warsh’s discipline-focused Fed is attempting to defend. The on-chain signals will reveal which dynamic arrives first. Related Reading: XRP Whale Dominance Returns To Binance While Coinbase Data Tells A Different Story  Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support As Bulls Defend Recovery Structure Bitcoin continues consolidating near the $77,000 region after failing to sustain momentum above the recent $82,000 local high. The daily chart shows a market entering a critical decision phase, with price compressing between overhead resistance and a major support zone that has defined the structure of the recovery since April. Bitcoin compressed between key SMA's | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView The most important technical area remains the $73,000–$74,000 range highlighted on the chart. This zone previously acted as resistance during March before flipping into support during the April breakout. Bitcoin is now retesting that region from above while the 50-day moving average rises directly underneath it, creating a confluence area bulls must defend to preserve the medium-term recovery structure. Related Reading: HYPE Accumulation Intensifies As Whale-Linked Position Surpasses $100M At the same time, the 200-day moving average near $82,000 continues acting as macro resistance. Recent rejection from that level confirms that sellers remain active whenever BTC approaches the upper boundary of the current range. The sequence of lower highs since mid-May also suggests momentum has weakened considerably following the rally from the February lows. Volume conditions have normalized after the extreme volatility seen during the February capitulation event, indicating the market is transitioning from panic-driven movement into a slower consolidation phase. Technically, Bitcoin remains constructive while trading above $74,000. Holding support could allow another attempt toward the $80,000–$82,000 region, while losing it would likely expose the broader $65,000 demand zone below. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A recent TradingView technical outlook suggests Bitcoin remains locked beneath a stubborn upper trendline resistance that continues to suppress bullish momentum. Despite several recovery attempts, BTC has repeatedly failed to break through the resistance zone, causing speculations that the price could push below $60,000. Bitcoin Trapped Beneath A Heavy Ceiling The TradingView chart highlights how this upper trendline has consistently acted as a ceiling for price action, rejecting Bitcoin each time buyers attempt to push higher. That resistance area also overlaps with key Fibonacci retracement levels, making it an increasingly important barrier within the current market structure. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts What Will Happen To XRP When Exchanges Run Out Of Supply Current price action appears to support that outlook. Bitcoin has struggled to sustain upside momentum and recently slipped lower after another rejection near the top of the rising formation. Attention is now shifting toward the $73,000 to $75,000 support region, which analysts view as critical for maintaining the broader bullish structure.  The setup also shows a narrowing wedge-like recovery structure developing after Bitcoin’s earlier selloff. However, rather than breaking upward decisively, BTC has started rolling over near resistance once again, signaling that the market still lacks the momentum needed to overpower the upper trendline. This weakness is already becoming visible across broader market performance metrics. Bitcoin remains under pressure on higher timeframes and has recorded losses across the weekly and 14-day charts. For bullish momentum to regain strength, analysts say Bitcoin must finally break above the upper trendline resistance with strong conviction. Until that happens, the current price action continues to reinforce the idea that the trendline ceiling remains firmly in control of the market. Can Bitcoin Crash Below $60,000? While the dominant outlook favours Bitcoin breaking the upper trendline to regain bullish momentum, analysts are not dismissing the possibility of a much deeper flush if key supports collapse. The immediate downside focus sits between $69,000 and $66,000, where another major support region intersects with the rising trendline structure from previous swing lows. A move into that range would likely represent an aggressive but technically acceptable retracement within the broader cycle. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Reveals The Real Catalysts; ‘The Price Discovery Will Be Biblical’ The more concerning scenario emerges if Bitcoin loses the $66,000 threshold entirely. According to the chart, that breakdown would invalidate the current ascending support framework and potentially trigger a broader risk-off reaction across crypto markets. In that situation, volatility could increase rapidly. Liquidity gaps below current price levels may expose Bitcoin to a sharp capitulation move capable of driving price beneath $60,000 before stronger demand returns. There is also a hint at the possibility of a panic-driven wick stretching toward the low-$50,000 region if market conditions deteriorate aggressively. For now, however, the market remains at an inflection point rather than in confirmed collapse. The behavior of buyers around the $73,000 to $75,000 area will likely determine whether Bitcoin resumes its climb toward six-figure territory or slides into a much deeper corrective phase. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Phila has predicted that the Bitcoin price could see a massive decline to $55,000 after breaking a 14-year support level. This comes amid BTC’s fall below the psychological $80,000 level, with the leading crypto now at risk of dropping to new lows.  Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Drop To $55,000 Amid Breakdown In an X post, Phila stated that the Bitcoin price just broke a support level that has held for 14 years, noting that it had held in previous bear cycles. The analyst further remarked that this is not a dip, a correction, or a shakeout, but rather capitulation happening in real time. His accompanying chart showed that the leading crypto could drop to around $55,000 following the breakdown below the key support level.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Playing Out The ‘Fakeout Theory’ Again, Here’s What To Expect Meanwhile, the analyst highlighted his track record, noting that he called the $16,000 bottom in 2022 and the top for the Bitcoin price in October 2025. As such, he suggested that market participants should prepare accordingly, as his prediction of a decline to $55,000 is likely to happen.  In another X post, Phila stated that the Bitcoin price action was mirroring the 2021 price action, with the double top, lower highs, and lower lows. He noted that there was also a relief rally in 2021 that felt like the bottom, but it wasn’t the bottom, and everyone who bought BTC before the rally saw losses on the next leg down.  Similarly, the Bitcoin price is once again in a relief rally phase, with many market participants believing that the February 2026 low of $60,000 was the bottom. He added that many think that the worst is over, but that $50,000 is on the table and that his fractal hasn’t missed a single step yet.  The Key Level To Watch For Now Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that $77,800 is the key level to watch for the Bitcoin price at the moment. This came as he alluded to a well-defined channel that has developed on the lower timeframes and that BTC has climbed to test the upper boundary of this structure around $77,800.  Related Reading: What’s The Latest With The US-Iran War And How Does It Affect Bitcoin? The analyst further predicted that a flip of this level into support could clear the path for the Bitcoin price to rally to around $79,000. However, if BTC fails to break above this level, then it could see a healthy retracement back into the channel to gather liquidity. Martinez added that the key levels to watch for a bounce are the mid-range at $76,900 and the channel bottom at $76,000.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $77,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $78,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $76,200 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $77,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $78,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains Bitcoin price remained supported above the $76,500 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $76,800 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $77,000 and $77,200 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,016 swing high to the $76,020 low. However, the bears are active near $78,000. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $77,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $78,500 level. A close above the $78,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,016 swing high to the $76,020 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $81,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $77,200 level. The first major support is near the $76,800 level. The next support is now near the $76,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $74,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,800, followed by $76,200. Major Resistance Levels – $78,000 and $79,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trapped in its new consolidation band, holding between about $76,000 and $78,500. That range has now become the market’s near-term battlefield, with BTC roughly 38% below its all-time highs.  While this sideways action may appear stable, a new CryptoQuant report argues that miners themselves don’t yet believe the market has fully reached a bottom. No Panic, Still Cautious The report points to a key indicator: the decline in Binance Pool Miner Reserve data. Since Binance Pool accounts for a large portion of the global hash rate, its behavior is often treated as a useful proxy for broader miner sentiment.  In this case, falling reserves suggest that Bitcoin miners within the pool are continuing to trim what they hold in reserve. Typically, reserve reduction can reflect ongoing operational selling pressure, meaning miners are still supplying BTC to the market rather than stepping back completely. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Breaks New All-Time High—Surges Past $62 As Momentum Spikes At the same time, the report adds an important nuance through another metric: the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) staying in negative territory. That detail matters because it implies miners are not selling aggressively in a way that resembles historical panic behavior.  In other words, the Bitcoin selling activity they’re showing appears more tied to necessity than to a full-scale rush to get out. CryptoQuant frames this as a reason the risk of an abrupt, catastrophic price dump remains relatively low for now. The Puell Multiple is also cited as supporting the same overall interpretation. CryptoQuant notes that the Puell Multiple remaining below 1 indicates miner revenues are still weak and under pressure compared with historical baselines.  Practically, that means miners are operating in a stressed environment, but they are not necessarily accumulating aggressively because Bitcoin still hasn’t delivered the kind of bullish breakout that would typically encourage stronger positioning.  Instead, miners look like they’re in a wait-and-watch mode. CryptoQuant says this kind of behavior is often observed near bottom formations, even if it doesn’t confirm one has fully formed yet. Bitcoin Price Outlook ‘Mixed’ Looking at what this means for price, the picture is mixed. The drop in miner reserves implies some BTC supply is still moving into the market. However, because the MPI remains weak (but not in a “panic selling” pattern), CryptoQuant suggests the resulting selling pressure may not be large enough to trigger a sudden Bitcoin collapse.  Related Reading: Circle’s Next Step: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Integration As The Catalyst For Real Supply-Share Gain That aligns with the current chart structure, which continues to suggest sideways consolidation for a while longer. CryptoQuant also brings in an additional perspective from a separate report: whales reportedly bought near $78K and are now distributing in the $77K–$81K area.  At the same time, exchange reserves are described as being at a monthly high, which is another sign that selling pressure is elevated. In that context, CryptoQuant’s implication is straightforward—if Bitcoin breaks down again and loses $76K, selling pressure could intensify quickly. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,763, having recorded a decline of almost 5% after failing to break above and hold $83,000 during last week’s rally.  Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin continues to show resilience despite mounting bearish pressure below the critical $78,800 resistance zone. While short-term volatility and repeated rejections have slowed bullish momentum, the broader market structure still indicates an active uptrend, as buyers continue to defend key support levels and position for another potential rebound.  BTC Finds New Support Around The $77,000 Region In a recent market assessment, Ultimae highlights that while Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $78,700 support level, the $77,000 zone is currently functioning as the primary defensive floor. This transition suggests that the market is successfully absorbing the recent selling pressure, with $77,000 acting as a key technical pivot for bulls to stabilize the price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Struggles Below Resistance While Fibonacci Support Comes Into Focus Currently, market participants are closely monitoring the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a decisive technical indicator. The asset’s ability to hold above this moving average suggests that short-term momentum is attempting to base, providing a foundation for the next potential leg of the move. Should price action result in a clear breach of this immediate support, $75,700 is the next immediate area of interest where liquidity may be gathered. Further downside pressure from that point would bring the $73,500 support into focus, a level that has historically served as a critical zone for institutional interest. Despite the recent pullback, Ultimae maintains a distinctly bullish perspective, asserting that Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains firmly intact. The analyst views the current price decline as a healthy consolidation phase rather than a shift in the longer-term structural trend. To invalidate this upward structure, the price would need to break decisively through the support line of the red box highlighted on the chart. Until that boundary is breached, the current market environment is viewed as constructive. While a minor drift toward $73,500 remains a possibility, the expectation is for a recovery bounce to materialize soon. Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly After Triple Retest Of Bullish Order Block Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience by retesting the 4-hour bullish order block (OB) three times, resulting in a healthy rebound of $1,700 that successfully cleared the $77,400 resistance level. According to analyst Qingtianbtc, this recovery to the $78,300 level and the subsequent move toward the 4-hour bearish OB are well within expected market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit Near $95,000 If It Holds Above This Critical Support, Top Analyst Says The current upward movement is interpreted as a temporary relief rally rather than a trend reversal. Investors should anticipate that any push into the $78,300 to $78,800 range will serve as a point of exhaustion before the asset resumes its downward trajectory. Meanwhile, the 4-hour bearish OB, spanning from $78,800 to $79,600, currently acts as a zone of significant resistance. ng the asset, as a sustained breakout above this range remains unlikely in the immediate term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst is urging traders and investors to keep a close eye on a bearish Order Block (OB) level on the Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. According to the expert, this OB level sits within a critical zone near $90,000, which could determine BTC’s next directional move, with the cryptocurrency either continuing to the upside or experiencing a sharp rejection toward lower levels. With Bitcoin currently trading around $77,000, a positive reaction to this OB level could open the door for a fresh price rally.  Bitcoin’s Bearish OB Level Signals Make Or Break Zone A TradingView crypto analyst known as ‘Fullpriceaction’ has shared a fresh Bitcoin analysis, predicting a bearish and bullish price outlook depending on how the leading cryptocurrency reacts to a critical level. The analyst described this area as a “bearish OB level,” which is a price zone where large institutional players such as hedge funds, market makers, and banks placed heavy sell orders before a significant price drop. Related Reading: Why The $65,000 Region Is Important As Bitcoin Gears Up To Face Massive Resistance At These Levels Fullpriceaction noted that Bitcoin’s bearish OB level is currently sitting between the $94,000 and $98,000 range. At the time of writing, this order block level sits far above BTC’s current price, meaning the cryptocurrency will need to stage another rally of over 27% to reach that level.  The analyst has predicted that a rejection from this bearish OB zone could trigger a significant pullback in Bitcoin’s price, which is already weighed down by widespread volatility and market fear. On the bullish side, Fullpriceaction has forecasted that a clean break above the critical level could completely invalidate BTC’s bearish structure, potentially paving the way for a fresh bull run. With these possible moves on the horizon, the crypto expert is urging investors and traders to manage their risk carefully. He noted that the Bitcoin price has been in a severe bear market since its January highs near $98,000.  The leading cryptocurrency has been grinding through a slow, prolonged consolidation phase, with its price largely trading between $64,000 and $76,000. Despite the bearish pressures restricting its price action, Fullpriceaction noted that Bitcoin was steadily building a solid base that eventually led to a breakout and a strong bullish impulse in April.  Analyst Predicts BTC’s Crash To $70,000 In Days In a separate analysis on X, crypto market expert Alex Mason predicted that the Bitcoin price could crash to $70,000 within just a few days. Following this decline, the analyst expects the leading cryptocurrency to continue its downside trajectory. He projects a drop from its current price of around $77,000 to $73,000, then to $68,000 and $71,000, before ultimately plummeting toward $60,000.  Related Reading: The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over Looking further ahead, Mason has placed BTC’s final market bottom somewhere around Autumn 2026, between September and December. His chart places this price floor around $30,000, representing a staggering decline of more than 61% from present levels.  Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin weekly chart has printed a red candlestick in a way that has quietly preceded some corrections. This candlestick appears in the numbers: in the open, the push, the rejection, and the close. That is exactly what happened last week. The candle that formed has now drawn the attention of an analyst who has catalogued its full history on Binance going back to 2017, and what he found is the possibility of another Bitcoin crash. Bitcoin’s Weekly Candle Flashes A Rare Bearish Setup As noted by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Sherlock on X, the latest Bitcoin weekly candle is one of the ugliest candlesticks that the asset can print. The analyst’s concern was not simply that Bitcoin closed the week in red. It was the way the candle formed and where it closed compared to the previous week. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts What Will Happen To XRP When Exchanges Run Out Of Supply Bitcoin’s weekly candle met three bearish conditions at the same time. It came in red immediately after a green weekly candle, its body engulfed the previous green candle, and it closed below the low of the previous week. This means buyers briefly tried to extend the rebound in the previous week but were overpowered before the weekly close.  The week opened at $82,210. Buyers attempted a push higher, failed, and by the close Bitcoin was trading at $77,457, creating a red candle following a green week. That type of candle is important because it does not only show selling pressure. A green week had first given traders room to believe that Bitcoin was holding steady above $80,000, but the following candle erased that progress and closed beneath the prior low. This turned the previous week’s rally into a bull trap. What Does This Mean For Bitcoin? Interestingly, this exact setup has appeared 33 times on Binance since 2017, and the historical record is heavily tilted to the downside. Over the 12 weeks following each signal, Bitcoin traded at least 3% lower in 31 out of 33 cases, at least 5% lower in 28 cases, at least 8% lower in 25 cases, and at least 10% lower in 23 cases. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Reveals The Real Catalysts; ‘The Price Discovery Will Be Biblical’ The deeper part of the analysis is the average and median drawdown. The average drawdown after this weekly structure was 20.9%, while the median drawdown was 15.8%. Since Bitcoin closed last week at $77,457, a median version of the move would place the price on a further crash to $65,000, while an average version would drag the price close to $61,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,800 and bulls are trying to hold above $77,000. The current weekly candlestick is now green, but there is still enough time for things to change before the week’s close. The current weekly candle is playing out at a time when Bitcoin is under pressure from ETF outflows, and it is currently on a four-day outflow stretch, according to data from SoSoValue. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Millionaire businessman Kevin O’Leary has indicated that stablecoins are more valuable than Bitcoin because of their role in the global financial system. He also highlighted the “big opportunity” as one of the layer-1 networks could be the biggest beneficiary of traditional finance (TradFi) firms moving on-chain.  Kevin O’Leary Praises Stablecoins Over Bitcoin In an X post, Kevin O’Leary shared a FOX interview in which he praised stablecoins over Bitcoin. He described BTC as a speculative asset whose price fluctuates due to its volatility. Meanwhile, the businessman called stablecoins an interesting product in financial services, noting that they are valuable because they are backed by U.S. Treasury bills.  Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom? O’Leary further remarked that the “beauty” of these stablecoins is that one can transfer them in seconds, not days. As such, he explained how these stablecoins top the current payment system, since one’s money can sometimes get lost when using FedWire or banking transfer systems. The businessman added that these transfer systems are also very expensive, which is another advantage stablecoins have over them, as one can transfer money for a fraction of the fee using stablecoins. As such, O’Leary suggested that stablecoins, rather than Bitcoin, could have a significant impact in the real world. However, he highlighted BTC’s edge, noting that it is commonly referred to as digital gold.   It is worth noting that O’Leary is a Bitcoin bull despite his comment about BTC being a speculative asset. Last month, he revealed that he had consolidated his crypto holdings into just BTC and Ethereum after years of gaining exposure to other tokens. The businessman explained that he made this move to consolidate into just BTC and ETH after a regulatory shift and institutional analysis forced a reassessment.  The Big Opportunity For Crypto Networks As part of his interview, Kevin O’Leary also mentioned that there is one big opportunity out there for crypto networks, with forecasts that the S&P 500 could adopt blockchain technology for contract analysis, inventory management, and logistics. He remarked that he doesn’t know which network will benefit most from this, as nobody knows which blockchain these companies will standardize on.  Related Reading: Historical Data Shows How Many Days Are Left Until Bitcoin Price Hits New ATH Above $120,000 However, he noted that the winner among these crypto networks will emerge once at least one company in each of the economy’s 11 sectors chooses to standardize on that blockchain network. It is worth noting that Ethereum appears to be leading Bitcoin and other layer-1 networks in this regard at the moment.  Ethereum is currently the leader in RWA tokenization, with the network holding 67% market share of all tokenized assets. RWA.xyz data shows that the network has a total RWA value of $18.6 billion, excluding stablecoins. Institutions have notably chosen Ethereum and other newer layer-1 networks over the Bitcoin network, which is lagging in RWA tokenization. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $76,800 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $78,300 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $76,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $79,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Break Bitcoin price remained supported above the $76,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $76,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $76,650 and $77,000 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,017 swing high to the $76,020 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $77,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,300 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,017 swing high to the $76,020 low. A close above the $79,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $80,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $81,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $77,200 level. The first major support is near the $76,500 level. The next support is now near the $76,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,500, followed by $76,000. Major Resistance Levels – $78,300 and $79,000.

The US-Iran war continues to linger with the two countries yet to reach a deal, and US President Donald Trump is threatening new strikes against Iran. Amid this, Iran has moved to launch a Bitcoin-backed service as it looks to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz.  U.S.-Iran War In Focus Amid Trump’s Threat and New Bitcoin Service According to a Reuters report, US President Donald Trump has threatened that a new US attack on Iran could happen in the coming days if both sides fail to reach a deal. This came amid his revelation that he was close to ordering a strike against Iran earlier this week before postponing following pleas from leaders of the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Notably, the US-Iran war is now approaching the three-month mark, with a peace deal yet to be reached.  Related Reading: Donald Trump Abandons Meme Coins In Favor Of These Indirect Bitcoin Exposure Vehicles The major contention remains Iran’s nuclear program, which the country has so far refused to give. Meanwhile, Iran had sent a revised proposal earlier in the week, which the US rejected. The proposal focused on a long-term truce in the US-Iran war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this major oil chokepoint continues to impact the markets, with oil holding above $100 per barrel while Bitcoin and the broader crypto market decline.  Meanwhile, amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has launched a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for shipping in this oil chokepoint. The service called “Hormuz Safe” aims to provide insurance policies for cargo moving through the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and surrounding waterways, with payments made in Bitcoin. Iran has adopted Bitcoin to evade US financial sanctions, which have heightened amid the US-Iran war.  War Sending Inflation To Multi-Year Highs The US-Iran war is also driving US inflation to multi-year highs, which is putting downside pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. US PPI inflation rose by 6% year-over-year (YoY) in April, its highest increase since December 2022. At the same time, US CPI rose by 3.8% in April, its highest increase since May 2023.  Related Reading: Why The $65,000 Region Is Important As Bitcoin Gears Up To Face Massive Resistance At These Levels With inflation rising due to the US-Iran war, the market continues to price in a rate hike over a cut as the Fed’s next likely move. Polymarket data shows a 28% chance of a Fed rate hike this year. Meanwhile, further data from Polymarket shows a 70% chance that the Fed will make zero rate cuts this year amid inflation concerns. A potential rate hike is bearish for Bitcoin, as it could constrain liquidity with higher interest rates.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Wintermute said Bitcoin’s latest rally has failed its first major macro test, arguing that the move was driven more by leverage and short covering than by durable spot demand. In its May 18 market update, the trading firm pointed to hot inflation, rising Treasury yields, ETF outflows and renewed rate-hike pricing as the backdrop behind a sharp reversal across digital assets. “Last week we said we’d find out fast what kind of rally this was. We found out,” Wintermute wrote. “BTC failed at the 200-day on the first real macro shock, which tells you it was the squeeze driving it all along.” The firm’s update framed the week as a macro-led repricing. April CPI came in at 3.8% year over year, above the 3.7% consensus estimate, while core CPI rose 0.4% month over month. Wintermute said the inflation shock has become harder for markets to dismiss, noting that the prolonged energy shock is now moving into core inflation and that real wages turned negative for the first time in three years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits ‘Wall Of Resistance,’ CryptoQuant Research Head Warns Rates responded quickly. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 28 basis points on the week to 4.58%, its highest level since September 2025, while fed funds futures erased all expected cuts for 2026 and began pricing a 44% chance of a rate hike by December, up from 22.5% a week earlier. Wintermute said the market narrative shifted from “when do they cut” to “do they hike” in only five trading days. That repricing hit long-duration assets. Wintermute said 20-year-plus Treasuries fell 2.8%, while gold dropped 3.8% despite the geopolitical backdrop. Brent crude rose 8.6%, leaving the firm to conclude that “the only things that worked were the things causing the problem.” Why $75,000 Bitcoin Is The Line In The Sand Bitcoin briefly moved above $82,000 after the CLARITY Act vote, but then reversed sharply and closed Friday near $78,000, down 5.7% for the week. A weekend slide toward $77,000 triggered $657 million in liquidations, including $584 million from long positions. Ethereum underperformed even more, falling 10.2% on the week. Wintermute said ETH continued to weaken across both spot and derivatives markets, with ETH/BTC pressing 0.0275, funding softer and relative implied volatility elevated. The firm described ETH as the “wrong asset for this macro.” ETF flows also turned against the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1 billion of outflows for the week, ending six consecutive weeks of inflows, while ETH ETFs saw $255 million leave the products. Wintermute cited Glassnode data showing institutions were “selling into strength,” with the seven-day moving average of net flows at negative $88 million per day, the weakest level since mid-February. “When leverage is the marginal buyer, the unwind is fast,” Wintermute wrote. Related Reading: Strategy Wants 1,000,000 Bitcoin Treasury And This Is How They Plan To Get To That Number The firm said Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average near $82,200 after being rejected five times this month. The immediate support zone is $76,000 to $78,000, according to the update, while a break of $75,000 could open the way toward $70,000 to $72,000. Wintermute did not dismiss the broader structural case for Bitcoin. It noted that exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows, long-term holders are still accumulating, and the CLARITY Act continues to move forward after clearing the Senate banking committee. The firm also said tokenized Treasuries reached $15 billion onchain, describing the segment as an area of continued growth. Still, Wintermute argued that short-term flows matter more than the structural story for now. “The flow data shows institutions used the rally to take profit rather than add, and in the short term that matters more than the structural story,” the firm wrote. The next test, according to the update, is whether Bitcoin can hold the $76,000 to $78,000 area through Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, May 20. A hold would “rebuild some confidence,” Wintermute said, but a break below $75,000 with funding resetting and ETF flows negative could bring the low $70,000s back into view quickly. At press time, BTC traded at $77,297. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $76,800 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $76,000 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $77,000 and extended losses. The price is trading below $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $77,200 and $77,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $77,200 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $76,800 level. There was a move below the $76,500 level. The price even dipped below $76,200. A low was formed at $76,020 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is still struggling below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,018 swing high to the $76,020 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $76,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $76,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,200 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $77,450 level. A close above the $77,450 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,018 swing high to the $76,020 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,450 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,400 level. The first major support is near the $76,000 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $74,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,000, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $77,200 and $77,450.

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped after failing to clear a major ceiling around the $83,000 area, with the flagship cryptocurrency down nearly 5% over the past week.  As of Tuesday evening, BTC was changing hands at roughly $76,750. Even with the pullback, market analyst Ali Martinez believes the current price action still leaves room for a rebound toward $94,850.  Bitcoin Could Drop Toward $54,270 In a Tuesday social media post on X (previously Twitter), Martinez pointed to Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands, saying a move to $94,850 would represent about a 23.5% increase from current levels.  However, he cautioned that this upside path depends on Bitcoin holding above a specific support level at $72,960. In his view, losing that threshold would shift the outlook and open the door to a deeper drawdown. Related Reading: Zcash, Bitcoin, And Solana—Catalysts Ahead That Could Fuel Another Upswing Before May Ends If $72,960 is broken, Martinez warned that BTC could be pulled toward the realized price near $54,270. That scenario would imply an additional 29% retracement from present prices.  With that in mind, the analyst framed the $72,960 level as a key line in the sand for determining whether Bitcoin’s consolidation turns into the next leg up or extends into a more pronounced correction. Adding to the bullish outlook, Martinez also said derivatives traders are positioning as if another advance is likely. He noted that Bitcoin funding rates have climbed to 0.4%, the highest level seen in more than two months.  Key Support And Resistance Walls To Watch When Bitcoin funding rates rise to that extent, it typically signals that the derivatives market is being driven by aggressive long positioning, with market participants paying a premium to keep long exposure.  According to Martinez, this kind of demand can sometimes lead to quick liquidations if the market snaps downward and forces late buyers out, but it also reflects a broader bias that remains tilted toward expansion. Related Reading: Goldman Sachs Rebalances Crypto Exposure: XRP, SOL Out, ETH Down 70%, Hyperliquid In In another social media post issued on Monday, the analyst also highlighted additional levels to watch ahead tied to the cryptocurrency’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator.  Martinez identified new resistance levels at $78,258 and $84,569. On the support side, he pointed to $75,733 and $66,898. Together with the earlier $72,960 support marker, these zones form the set of key reference points Martinez said could shape whether Bitcoin pushes higher toward $94,850 or slides toward the realized price area. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s latest rally has run into a major technical and on-chain resistance zone, with CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno warning that several indicators now point to elevated correction risk after a sharp rebound from April lows. Moreno said CryptoQuant had been flagging a potential pullback for weeks, citing high unrealized profits, a spike in profit-taking across spot and futures markets, slowing US spot demand, and resistance from both technical and on-chain price levels. The firm’s latest analysis frames Bitcoin’s move toward the 200-day moving average as a critical test for whether the rally has durable support or resembles a bear-market rebound running out of momentum. Why The Bitcoin Correction Risk Is Rising “Bitcoin has reached a major bear market resistance level, the 200-day moving average at $82.4K, following a 37% price rally from the April lows. The parallel with March 2022 is direct: in that cycle, Bitcoin also rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day MA, after which the price resumed its downward trend. The current setup raises the question of whether history repeats,” CryptoQuant wrote in its May 13 report, titled “Wall of Resistance: Bitcoin Tests the 200-Day MA as Profit-Taking and Weak US Demand Cap the Rally.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock? Binance Flags 500,000 BTC Leaving Exchange The comparison with March 2022 is central to the firm’s caution. In CryptoQuant’s reading, the 200-day moving average is not just a technical line on the chart, but a zone where prior bear-market rallies have failed when supported by weak demand and heavy profit-taking. Bitcoin’s 37% move from April lows has brought the market back to that same kind of inflection point. A key concern is the rise in unrealized profits among traders. CryptoQuant said traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025. That matters because holders with sizable paper gains often become more willing to sell into strength, especially when a rally approaches a widely watched resistance level. The firm said those margin levels mirror the conditions seen in March 2022, when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day moving average before resuming its broader decline. The implication is not that the market must repeat that outcome, but that the current setup carries a similar distribution risk if demand does not strengthen. Realized profit data suggests that some selling has already begun. CryptoQuant said daily realized profits surged to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. According to the report, spikes of that scale during bear-market rallies have historically preceded local tops, as newly profitable short-term holders accelerate selling into price strength. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Meltdown: What’s Behind The Drop To $76,000, And What’s Next The demand side of the market also remains a weak point in CryptoQuant’s assessment. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turned negative in late April and stayed below zero as Bitcoin approached $80,000, which the firm interpreted as a sign of decelerating US investor demand. CryptoQuant argued that sustained positive Coinbase premium has historically been a prerequisite for more durable Bitcoin rallies, and that its absence suggests the current move lacks broad-based US institutional conviction. Spot apparent demand has improved, but remains negative. The contraction narrowed from minus 91K BTC in April to minus 11K BTC, according to the report. CryptoQuant said that indicates conditions have become less severe, but not strong enough to confirm sustained spot accumulation. The firm also noted that demand growth appears concentrated more in speculative perpetual futures positioning than in spot buying. If a correction develops, CryptoQuant identified the main on-chain support level near $70,000, represented by the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The firm said this level has historically acted as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets because it reflects the average cost basis of short-term traders. At press time, BTC traded at $76,961. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has lost the $80,000 level as selling pressure and market uncertainty combine to test the resilience of a recovery that had been building since the April lows. The breakdown is significant, and XWIN Research Japan has published a structural analysis that places the current weakness in a context that goes considerably deeper than a technical support level failing to hold. Related Reading: Massive HYPE Accumulation Continues: Whale-Linked Wallet Adds $90M In Weeks The analysis begins with a premise that reframes how the entire 2026 Bitcoin market should be understood. This cycle is structurally different from the ones that preceded it. ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, interest rate dynamics, regulatory development, and dollar liquidity conditions now influence Bitcoin’s price behavior in ways that did not exist during the 2020 to 2021 advance. The asset has institutionalized — but the on-chain data tells a more complicated story about what is actually driving day-to-day price movements. The Coinbase Premium Index is where the structural concern becomes most visible. The metric measures the price gap between Coinbase — the primary venue for US institutional spot buying — and offshore exchanges like Binance. During the 2020 to 2021 bull market, that premium stayed predominantly positive, reflecting sustained American institutional demand flowing into the spot market through the most regulated and most scrutinized venue available. In 2026, that premium has repeatedly fallen into negative territory — a reading that XWIN Research Japan identifies as the gap between the narrative of institutional adoption and the reality of where actual spot demand currently stands. Two Realities And The Question That Defines What Comes Next The XWIN Research Japan analysis holds two contradictory truths simultaneously and refuses to resolve them prematurely. The long-term picture remains structurally constructive. Exchange reserves have declined to approximately 2.68 million BTC — coins leaving exchanges and moving into long-term holding, ETF custody, and low-liquidity storage at a sustained pace. Less Bitcoin available on exchanges means less immediate sell-side supply, and the directional trend of that reduction supports the supply squeeze argument that underpins the long-term bullish case. Bitcoin Exchange Netflow | Source: CryptoQuant The short-term picture tells a different story. Open Interest has surged since April 2026 while funding rates remain unstable — the signature of a market where leverage-driven futures activity is dominating price discovery rather than genuine spot accumulation. Recent price movements, including the recovery from the April lows and the current breakdown below $80,000, reflect derivatives positioning more than the organic spot demand that characterized Bitcoin’s most durable advances. The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio adds the missing piece. The decline in stablecoin waiting capital — the dry powder sitting on exchanges ready to deploy into spot purchases — confirms that the aggressive USDT and USDC inflows that fueled the 2021 advance have not returned at a comparable scale. The question XWIN Research Japan identifies as the defining one for this cycle follows directly from those three signals. Bitcoin has built the institutional infrastructure — ETFs, corporate treasuries, regulatory frameworks — that the previous cycle lacked entirely. What has not yet been built is the sustained spot demand that converts institutional infrastructure into a durable bull market. Whether that demand arrives, and when, is what the next phase of price action will begin to answer. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Flood Binance With 225,000 ETH In Largest Inflow Since 2022 Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Recovery Momentum Continues To Fade Bitcoin is trading near $76,900 after extending its rejection from the $81,000-$82,000 resistance zone, a region that continues to cap every recovery attempt since April. The daily chart shows BTC now slipping back below the 100-day moving average while remaining firmly trapped beneath the descending 200-day moving average, reinforcing the broader bearish structure still dominating the market. Bitcoin Price is Testing Critical Demand Level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView The recovery from the February capitulation low near $63,000 initially showed constructive momentum, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $74,000 support region and printing a sequence of higher highs through April and early May. However, bullish momentum weakened significantly once the price approached long-term resistance, where repeated failed breakouts created a lower-high formation near local tops. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Expansion Raises Risks Near $1.50 Resistance – A Big Move May Follow Importantly, Bitcoin is now approaching the highlighted demand zone between $72,000 and $74,000, an area that previously acted as the foundation for the broader rebound. Holding this region could allow BTC to stabilize and attempt another recovery phase. However, a decisive breakdown below support would likely expose the market to a deeper retracement toward the broader accumulation range near $64,000-$65,000. Volume during the latest decline remains elevated relative to recent consolidation phases, suggesting active selling pressure continues driving price action. Combined with weakening Coinbase Premium readings and unstable futures positioning, the chart reflects a market still struggling to transition into a sustainable spot-driven bullish trend. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Strategy’s Bitcoin playbook is no longer just about buying dips. The company has turned its balance sheet into a capital machine built around one main objective of increasing the amount of Bitcoin it controls without weakening the amount of Bitcoin attached to each share.  Recent filings by the company now show that it is planning to repurchase $1.5 billion principal amount of 2029 convertible notes. Strategy Is Getting Closer To 1,000,000 Bitcoin Strategy’s latest reported Bitcoin reserve shows how far the company’s accumulation strategy has come. The firm’s Bitcoin purchase page lists 843,738 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,700 per Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Strategy Overtakes BlackRock’s Bitcoin Holdings, But Is Saylor Done Buying? This means Strategy now controls about 4.02% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply. The 1,000,000 BTC threshold would raise that share to about 4.76%, making Strategy one of the most important single holders in the Bitcoin market. At the current level, the company does not need to double its holdings. It needs to add about 18.5% more Bitcoin to cross the 1,000,000 BTC line. The pace of buying has also increased in 2026. Strategy said it held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, 2026, representing 22% growth year-to-date, and said it had raised $11.68 billion year-to-date at that point. Less than three weeks later, the company has bought another $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, lifting its holdings to 843,738 BTC. Strategy Repurchasing Convertible Notes Strategy’s path to acquiring 1,000,000 BTC depends on its ability to keep raising capital without damaging the value of its Bitcoin per share. Strategy sells financial instruments like convertible notes to investors who want exposure to its Bitcoin structure, then uses the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Avoid Bitcoin At All Costs; Here’s What To Do Instead As 50% Crash Looms If the Bitcoin added is worth more per share than the dilution or cost created by the financing, the company can report a positive Bitcoin yield. At the time of writing, Strategy has a Bitcoin year-to-date yield of 12.6%. The recent plan to repurchase part of the 2029 convertible notes also fits into this larger strategy. Strategy recently revealed that it agreed to repurchase a $1.50 billion principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due 2029 for an estimated cash price of about $1.38 billion. The repurchased notes would be cancelled, leaving about $1.50 billion of the 2029 notes outstanding. This matters because convertible notes can become future shares. Strategy reduces the possibility that those notes will eventually increase the number of shares by repurchasing and canceling a portion of that tranche. That can help protect Bitcoin per share, which is central to the company’s long-term treasury. Strategy’s most recent BTC purchase was announced less than 24 hours ago, with the company adding 24,869 BTC for a total cost of $2.014 billion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Cyclop has provided insights into when the Bitcoin price could hit a new all-time high (ATH) above $120,000. This came as the analyst alluded to historical data indicating that BTC could bottom in this bear cycle by the last quarter of this year.  Analyst Reveals When Bitcoin Price Will Hit New ATH Based On Historical Data In an X post, Cyclop alluded to historical BTC cycles to show when the Bitcoin price will hit a new all-time high. He noted that between 2015 and 2017, BTC enjoyed a bull run for 1,065 days, while between 2017 and 2018, it took 365 days for BTC to bottom in the bear market. Similarly, BTC enjoyed another bull run lasting 1,065 days between 2018 and 2021 before entering a bear market that lasted 365 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmation Will Be Completed Once This Level Is Reclaimed, Analyst Furthermore, between 2022 and 2025, the Bitcoin price experienced another bull run lasting 1,065 days, with BTC rallying to an ATH of 126,000. The leading crypto then topped in October  2025 and has since been in a bear market. Based on this historical data, BTC may be on course to be in this bear market until October 5, which will complete the 365-day cycle.  The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could rally to between $140,000 and $150,000 in the next bull run before the leading crypto tops in 2030 and enters another bear market. Meanwhile, this historical data suggests that the Bitcoin bottom isn’t in, despite BTC’s recent rally above $80,000. Bitcoin is once again in a downtrend amid inflation concerns and fears that the U.S.-Iran war could begin soon following stalled peace talks.  BTC Local Top Is In Crypto analyst Colin stated that the local top is in for the Bitcoin price, with BTC now eyeing new lows. He noted how the current price action is bearish as the leading crypto rejected the upper channel of a trend line, the 200-moving average, and the underside of the trend line. This underside has been respected as both resistance and support many times, but has now broken to the downside.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Don’t Buy Bitcoin Until This Happens In another X post, Colin echoed Cyclop’s sentiments, noting that on a purely time basis, it is extremely unlikely that the BTC borrow was in just after four months, since the Bitcoin price topped last October. The analyst had previously stated that BTC could bottom around $40,000 based on historical data, as the lowest decline the crypto asset has ever suffered in a bear market is 77%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has only seen a 53% drop to the February 2026 low of $60,000.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $76,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s long-term chart has produced another interesting price projection, as crypto analyst Crypto Tice is pointing out a technical roadmap needed for a rally to $500,000. This Bitcoin price forecast is based on a broad ascending channel that has guided the cryptocurrency through previous support tests, midrange rallies, and rejection zones. Notably, the latest structure is now positioned at what the analyst called the second major support touch. Bitcoin’s Bull Channel Structure Crypto Tice, a technical analyst on the social media platform X, analyzed a macro bull channel on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that has been governing price action across multiple cycles. The structure is a long-term ascending parallel channel, bounded by a lower rising support trendline and an upper rising resistance trendline.  Related Reading: Why Ethereum Is About To Break The Bear Cycle And Rally To $8,000 The weekly candlestick chart shows Bitcoin reacting to the lower green boundary during the previous cycle low, rallying into the middle of the channel, facing rejection here, and then returning to support before beginning a stronger rally phase to the upper part of the channel. The analyst’s rationale is that Bitcoin has already completed the same sequence that appeared earlier in the channel. The first touch at support has already happened, the rally to the middle of the channel has already played out, and the rejection back into the lower region of the structure has also been completed.  Based on this reading, Bitcoin is now sitting around the second major support touch, which is the zone where the analysis suggests a much larger move could begin. The second support touch is the most important part of the setup because it represents the point where Bitcoin is expected to prove that the larger channel is still intact. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoTice_ On X The Projection To $500,000 Bitcoin’s current position is very important. A defense of the lower trendline would mean that the leading cryptocurrency is not merely bouncing inside a weak market but building another expansion leg from a long-term channel support trendline. Related Reading: Trillion-Dollar Italian Bank Moves To XRP, But How Much Have They Bought? The next projection is a bounce off the support trendline and then a rally to the channel resistance line. The next price target sitting on the upper resistance band of the long-term bull channel is at $500,000. This target is plotted using the same way Bitcoin rallied the last time from support to the upper resistance band. It is worth noting that this is only a technical projection, and one that implies a move of more than six times from current price levels. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,075, having lost the $80,000 price level again. The broader analyst community is divided on Bitcoin’s path, and institutional forecasts for 2026 are generally in a range from $143,000 to $189,000. Crypto Tice’s analysis, however, is more of a long-term outlook and it offers a structural context for understanding where Bitcoin is in its long-term trajectory. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com