THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Crypto analyst Hanzo has predicted that Bitcoin will rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $170,000 in the next bull run. He also revealed what level investors should look to buy BTC in this bear market as they target this potential rally to $170,000.  Bitcoin To Rally To $170,000 In Next Bull Run In an X post, Hanzo stated that Bitcoin is going to $170,000 and advised investors to buy BTC at $58,000 and sell it at $165,000. His statement suggests that the flagship crypto is likely to bottom out at $58,000 in this bear market. Meanwhile, his accompanying chart showed that BTC could reach $170,000 by 2029, which would mark the peak of the next bull market.   Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 Meanwhile, it is worth noting that his prediction comes amid a Bitcoin relief rally to as high as $78,000 yesterday, with the flagship crypto reaching its highest level since February. The relief rally came as Iran announced that it has reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The rally also comes amid optimism that the U.S.-Iran war could end soon.  However, Hanzo’s prediction indicates that the bear market isn’t over for Bitcoin despite this relief rally and that the flagship crypto is still likely to crash to as low as $58,000 before it bottoms. Crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who called the BTC top last year, also described this recent rally as a bull trap.  In an X post, the analyst pointed out that he had previously mentioned that Bitcoin would see a strong bull trap before going down. He added that the next BTC crash will also affect the U.S. stock market and predicted it could happen within the next one to two months.  A Correction Is Likely To Happen Sooner Rather Than Later  Crypto analyst Colin opined that a Bitcoin correction is likely to happen sooner rather than later. This came as he questioned whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be a sell-the-news event. He added that the market has likely already priced in this event over the last 12 days, which is why BTC’s recovery began earlier.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Chances Of Bitcoin Price Crashing Again The analyst also mentioned that Bitcoin is currently at an interesting crossroads as it looks to break out of a descending channel. His accompanying chart showed that BTC will need to break above $78,000 to invalidate the current bearish trend. However, Colin suggested that there is a high likelihood that $78,000 is the local top, with another downtrend on the horizon.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,200, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort is still expanding, but a key profitability gauge has slipped back below neutral, creating a more cautious read on market structure even as older supply continues to move out of circulation. In an April 17 market note, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply climbed from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, an increase of 3.06 million BTC in three months. At the same time, LTH SOPR, measured on a seven-day moving average, fell to 0.979 and has now remained below 1.0 for five straight days. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Data Turns Cautious “The long-term holder cohort continues to expand,” he wrote. “This combination matters: the volume of coins in the LTH cohort is growing, but part of the spent old coins is already exiting at a loss.” In other words, more coins are aging into long-term holder status, but some of the coins that are being spent by that cohort are no longer being sold profitably. The supply side of the equation still looks structurally constructive. Adler said the Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply chart shows “a sharp increase in the volume of coins in the LTH cohort,” rising from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. He argued that the trend signals “an expansion of long-term holding and a compression of liquid supply,” while also noting that part of the increase reflects existing coins simply maturing into the 155-day threshold rather than fresh purchases alone. Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 A rising LTH Realized Supply series does not automatically imply new demand, but it does point to more supply becoming inactive for longer periods. Adler contrasted the current setup with the 2022 bear market, when LTH Realized Supply reached 15.31 million BTC in November before beginning to decline as older coins were spent. For now, he said, the current profile is more consistent with consolidation near $75,000 than with a broad distribution event. The warning sign is coming from holder behavior at the point of sale. Adler described repeated dips in LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February, a sign that long-term holders who are spending coins have periodically been doing so at a loss. The latest reading, 0.979, follows a deeper episode in late March and early April, when the indicator dropped to 0.798 and stayed below 1.0 for seven consecutive days before briefly recovering between April 5 and April 11. Adler stopped short of calling that capitulation. “The current picture is a series of recurring shallow dips below 1.0 with quick recoveries, not a prolonged capitulation,” he wrote. “The key question now is whether the current series will hold above the March lows (0.798) or SOPR will break below them. A repeat move deeper, combined with a simultaneous reversal of Realized Supply downward, is the real red flag for a regime change.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert That framing is important because it sets clear conditions for what would turn the current signal from local stress into something more serious. As long as SOPR remains in what Adler described as a shallow-loss zone and rebounds quickly, the implication is short-term pressure rather than a full bearish reset. In the note’s FAQ section, he said such brief dislocations have historically functioned as entry points rather than confirmation of a broader downside impulse. The bearish case, by Adler’s own definition, requires two things to happen together: LTH SOPR staying meaningfully below 1.0 and deepening, while LTH Realized Supply rolls over. That would suggest not just loss realization by old hands, but a broader shift from cohort expansion into active distribution. For now, Adler’s conclusion lands in the middle. The backdrop remains structurally positive because long-term holder supply is still rising, but the fresh loss-selling signal means the market is no longer cleanly constructive. The next move in SOPR, especially relative to the March low, may determine whether this is just another local stress episode or the start of a more meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s holder regime. At press time, BTC traded at $77,880. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is now printing green candlesticks on the weekly and daily timeframes, and this raises the question of whether the worst has already passed or maybe the floor is still months away.  An interesting analysis of Bitcoin’s price action over a multi-year time span pushes back against the growing optimism, pointing to a pattern that has held for more than a decade and suggesting that time, not just price, may still be working against a confirmed bottom. Every Bitcoin Bear Market Has Taken Over A Year To Bottom Going back to 2013, Bitcoin’s bear market cycles have followed a consistent sequence when it comes to the one metric that matters most, which is time. Each Bitcoin bear cycle differed slightly in severity, but the time requirement it took for it to end was surprisingly consistent.  Related Reading: Why Did The Bitcoin Price Rally Past $75,000 Despite The US-Iran War? According to a technical chart noted by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Xremin, the bear market in 2024 stretched to around 426 days before a bottom formed. The 2017 cycle followed with roughly 363 days, while the bear market after 2021’s rally took about 376 days to complete.  The current cycle, however, is only about 190 days into its correction phase. This is, of course, taking Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000 in October 2025 as the starting point of the bear market correction. That places it at just over half the duration seen in previous cycles.  Bitcoin is already down about 43% from that all-time high. However, calling a bottom at this stage, according to the analyst, would mean assuming that Bitcoin has suddenly broken a 13-year pattern without any clear structural change to justify it. Can The Bear Market Already Be In? Calling the bottom at this point in time would mean that this cycle has resolved itself in under half the time it has taken every single previous cycle to find its floor. However, the bull case for an early bottom is not without substance. Market participants with this view could easily argue that the Bitcoin and crypto ecosystem as a whole now has structural dynamics that did not exist in any previous bear market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again An example is the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now collectively hold approximately 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap, the highest being around 10% during the October 2025 peak. Another example is the Department of Labor publishing a proposed rule in March 2026 creating a safe harbor for retirement plan fiduciaries who add crypto to 401(k) menus. These are meaningful developments, and they may well reduce the severity of the eventual drawdown compared to previous cycles. However, they only speak to price depth, not to time.  Institutional demand may prevent Bitcoin from falling to as low as $50,000 or $40,000, but it does not automatically hasten the psychological and market-structure process by which a genuine cycle bottom forms. The historically reliable four-year halving cycle suggests a durable bottom may not form until closer to Q4 2026. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitwise Research has shed light on how holding durations can impact the ROI and outcomes of Bitcoin (BTC) investments, revealing a major distinction between short-term risk and long-term performance. The data shows that while short holding periods carry significant chances of loss, extended investment timeframes dramatically reduce downside risks. The findings are drawing significant attention in the crypto community as investors reassess their strategy in the ongoing bear market.  Why Holding Bitcoin For Long Carries Less Risk New research compiled by Bitwise and shared by crypto analyst Bitcoin Archive indicates that the probability of incurring losses on Bitcoin declines as the holding period increases, based on historical performance spanning more than a decade. The chart, sourced from Glassnode, shows that short-term exposure to BTC carries the highest level of uncertainty and the greatest likelihood of loss.  Related Reading: XRP Sentiment Is Sitting At Levels That Have Led To A Price Rally, But Is This Time Different? The numbers on the chart highlight just how unstable the Bitcoin price can be in the near term. If someone buys and sells within a day, their chances of losing money increase substantially. Even holding for a month does not improve things much, suggesting that short term price movements are largely unpredictable and driven by noise, speculation, and rapid sentiment shifts.  Looking at the chart’s numbers, a one-day holding period has a 47.1% chance of loss, while a one-week period shows a similar risk of 44.7%. Even at monthly intervals, the probability of loss stays elevated, reflecting the risks faced by active traders. Bitwise shows that holding BTC for just one month results in a marginal decline to 43.2%, underscoring the strong volatility across shorter timeframes.  However, as the holding period increases, the risk begins to decline noticeably. By the time an investor holds Bitcoin for several months or up to a year, the probability of loss drops, but remains significant. The chart shows that at the quarterly level, the probability of loss decreases to 37.6%. For over a year, the likelihood of loss drops further to 24.3%, highlighting a clear contrast when holding for just a day.  Bitcoin Loss Probability During Multi-Year Holds Most success stories and outsized returns in the crypto market typically come from whales or investors who have held BTC for 5 to more than 10 years. The profit margins of these investors are significantly larger than those of short-term traders who move in and out of positions based on market conditions and short-term hype. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Says It’s ‘Almost Certain’ That Price Will Reach $1,000 In This Timeframe Bitwise research data confirms this trend, showing that meaningful reductions in loss probability only appear over multi-year holding periods. Investors who hold BTC for over three years see their probability of loss fall sharply to 0.7%, while holding for beyond five years reduces it further to 0.2%. Across the ten-year range covered by the data, there were no recorded instances of investors selling at a loss, indicating that all observed holding periods of that length resulted in gains.   The findings suggest that while Bitcoin remains highly unpredictable in the short term, its long-term performance has consistently and historically favored patient investors.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s quantum risk may show up in derivatives markets well before any compromised coins move on-chain, according to FalconX co-head of markets Joshua Lim, who used an X thread on April 16 to map out what he sees as the most tradable signals around a potential “q-day” event. Lim’s core argument is that the market problem is not simply whether Bitcoin can migrate to post-quantum cryptography. It is also whether the network can politically resolve what to do with Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins and other old outputs that may never participate in such a migration. Quantum Risk Could Hit Bitcoin Through Derivatives Lim framed the issue as two separate questions. The first is technical: how Bitcoin could move away from elliptic curve cryptography used to secure private keys. The second is more fraught. “How to deal with the fundamentally non-mathematical and wholly sociopolitical question of what to do with Satoshi’s coins,” he wrote, arguing that the largest risk around quantum computing is not just cryptographic breakage but the governance crisis that could follow. He said a migration path for most of Bitcoin’s UTXOs is at least conceivable, pointing to BIP 361 as one example of a proposal that addresses both post-quantum migration and the handling of Satoshi-era coins. But that only solves part of the problem. Lim estimated that Satoshi’s holdings amount to roughly 1.1 million BTC, while other old or lost coins in pay-to-public-key addresses could push the total exposed supply to as much as 1.7 million BTC, which he called a “$127bn question.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert Those coins, he argued, are different because they likely would not participate in any community-led migration unless Satoshi is still active and willing to move them. That creates two outcomes, neither comfortable for markets. “EITHER Satoshi is still around and can move coins pre q-day, in which case BTC price will tank because the market will re-price the probability of those coins being sold in the future,” Lim wrote. “OR Satoshi is not around and someone will decide to steal the coins via a sufficiently powerful QC.” That is why, in Lim’s telling, Satoshi’s coins are “not a math problem.” The available responses are political. One option would be to burn those coins through governance, a move he said would raise serious questions around immutability, sovereignty, and precedent. The other would be a hard fork that lets the market choose between a chain that neutralizes the coins and one that preserves the current ruleset, even if that leaves open the eventual risk of a quantum-enabled seizure. Lim suggested that even an attempt at the first path could lead to the second. “Our only prophylactic is to EITHER A) burn Satoshi’s coins via governance,” he wrote, before outlining the trade-off, “OR B) create a hard fork and allow for the market to decide which is the true BTC.” In his view, that likely becomes a political contest over Bitcoin’s identity as much as a security response. He added that the most likely quantum thief, if such a scenario emerged, would be “a state-level actor.” From there, Lim shifted from theory to market structure. He contrasted any future fork with Bitcoin’s August 2017 split, which produced BTC and BCH. Back then, he noted, Bitcoin was a roughly $45 billion, mostly retail market, and many holders welcomed the fork because it effectively created an additional asset. Today’s market is different: around $1.5 trillion, far more institutional, and wrapped in ETFs, listed futures, and options. That changes how risk would likely transmit. “A hard fork today, or even the prospect of one, would be an entirely different beast,” Lim wrote. “It would result in extreme volatility and likely downward price action: a large gap down and massive cascading liquidations.” He added that if the community were close to evenly split on whether to burn exposed coins, institutional investors might have a mandate to de-risk ahead of the event, amplifying downside pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That is where derivatives come in. Lim argued the earliest warning signs of q-day risk are most likely to emerge in long-dated options skew, forward basis, and the distribution of open interest across traditional and crypto-native venues. He pointed out that long-dated BTC put skew is near multi-year highs, with downside protection relatively expensive compared with calls, and said the last comparable elevation came around the Three Arrows Capital and FTX collapses in 2022. He also flagged long-dated basis, noting that Bitcoin futures are trading near multi-year lows relative to spot. In Lim’s framework, q-day risk should compress or even invert basis because market participants hedge for downside while others position for a possible fork-related “airdrop,” similar in concept to 2017. Since the timing of any quantum breakthrough would be uncertain, he expects those signals to appear farther out on the curve. Still, he stopped short of saying the market is already pricing an imminent quantum event. Some signals are “flashing red,” he wrote, but they can also be explained by broader systemic risks or secular shifts, including growing institutional participation through venues such as CME and IBIT options. For now, Lim described the picture as mixed. His broader point was simpler: if q-day ever begins to look real, traders likely will not first see it in dormant coins moving. They will see it in derivatives. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,024. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

There are many different indicators that analysts have used to predict the Bitcoin bottom in the past, and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is one of them. Mostly, these indicators are known for predicting the bottom because when they have appeared in the past, it did not take long until the Bitcoin price reached the lowest level of the cycle. The interesting thing about the CVDD flashing now is how low it is putting the BTC price before it finds a bottom. CVDD Says Bitcoin Price Is Going Lower The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) was highlighted by crypto analyst TradingShot as an indicator that has predicted Bitcoin’s price bottom in the past. Usually, when this indicator is triggered, it is not long before the bottom is reached. Moreso, the Bitcoin price tends to drop a bit lower than the price the CVDD points to before bottoming. Related Reading: Meme Coin Unicorns That Are Now Basically Dust Again Given how this indicator has performed in the past, it puts into perspective where the Bitcoin price might be in this cycle. Presently, the bulls are still holding above $70,000 while the CVDD is pointing to $49,280. This would mean that the Bitcoin price has actually not reached a bottom and could continue to decline again. In addition to this, the MA200 on the 1-Day chart would need to confirm the bottom as a buy follow-up. When this happens, the crypto analyst says it means that the Bitcoin price has entered another bull cycle. Thus, if the digital asset follows the CVDD, then there would be a more than 30% crash coming. Bull Market Peak Indicators Say Top Is Not In While most analysts in the market are shooting to game the Bitcoin bottom, other indicators are pointing toward the fact that the digital asset hasn’t hit its peak yet. According to the 30 Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators tracked by the Coinglass website, the bull market might not be over yet. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Of The XRP Supply That ETFs Now Control One indicator that is yet to hit is the Bitcoin dominance, which hasn’t shown any signs of retracing. Instead, the pioneer cryptocurrency continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoins in the dust. Also, the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has not peaked, and the Bitcoin short-term holder supply follows the same trajectory. Since none of the 30 indicators have been triggered, the tracker suggests that this might be the time to buy BTC and not sell. However, there are still the macroeconomic and political factors, such as the US-Iran war, to consider, as these could also negatively impact the Bitcoin price and where the bottom might form. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Swan Bitcoin Managing Director John Haar argued on Wednesday that the market’s repeated comparison between the current cycle and the 2022 bear market misses a fundamental point: the backdrop has changed. In a post on X, Haar said Bitcoin’s roughly $65,000 to $70,000 range has acted as a floor for the past two months and may already represent the cycle bottom. His case rests on a simple distinction. The forces that broke Bitcoin in 2022: inflation shock, aggressive monetary tightening, collapsing liquidity and industry-wide contagion are, in his view, either gone or materially weaker today. “Those predicting a further decline are drawing comparisons to 2022,” Haar wrote. “But the macro, regulatory, and institutional landscape today is fundamentally different. The nine structural factors below illustrate why the 2022 analogy is unlikely to hold.” A Different Macro Regime Haar began with the macro backdrop, framing inflation and monetary policy as the first major break from the last cycle. In 2022, he noted, CPI hit a 40-year high, eroding purchasing power and giving the Federal Reserve a clear reason to tighten policy aggressively. Today, he described inflation as having stabilized around 2.5% to 3% year over year, a level he sees as far less threatening to risk assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That argument extends to rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and broad money growth. Haar wrote that 2022 brought “the fastest rate-hiking cycle in modern history,” while the present environment is defined by steady or modestly lower rates. He also pointed to what he described as a return of balance-sheet expansion and a multi-year run of month-over-month M2 growth, framing both as liquidity support rather than a headwind. Fiscal policy features prominently in the thread as well. Haar argued that US deficit spending has remained elevated at roughly 5% to 6% of GDP for more than three years, with no meaningful pullback in sight. Taken together, his message is that the macro engine driving the 2022 unwind has been replaced by one that looks, at minimum, more neutral and potentially supportive. Contagion, Then And Now Haar’s sixth point shifts from macro to crypto market structure. In his telling, 2022 was not simply a drawdown but a cascading institutional failure across tightly connected firms. Terra/Luna, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows Capital, Voyager and FTX collapsed in sequence, amplifying losses and destroying confidence across the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says He contrasted that period with today’s environment by arguing that institutional counterparties are stronger, even if pockets of stress remain. “BlockFills is an example of institutional failure, but its scale is a fraction of the 2022 failures,” Haar wrote. “This cycle, theories circulate regarding engineered cascading selloffs that ultimately caused leveraged crypto funds to implode.” Institutional Bitcoin Demand The final stretch of Haar’s thesis centers on what he sees as the most important difference between cycles: the scale of institutional demand. He wrote that Strategy deployed about $270 million to acquire roughly 8,000 BTC in 2022, compared with $22.5 billion in 2025 for 226,000 BTC and another $8.5 billion year to date in 2026 for 108,000 BTC. He paired that with the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a broader shift in institutional posture. “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are live with billions in AUM,” Haar wrote. “BlackRock is publicly promoting Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is launching their own spot Bitcoin ETF. Vanguard reversed course and will allow their clients to buy spot Bitcoin ETFs.” He also cited Harvard’s endowment as holding a sizable Bitcoin position and argued that the federal policy tone in the US has become more openly supportive. Haar stopped short of calling the floor guaranteed. He included a caveat that Bitcoin can still trade below levels that appear technically or structurally supported and warned that shocks ranging from war to supply-chain disruption to energy shortages could still derail the setup. Still, his broader point was clear: if 2022 was defined by tightening, forced liquidations and institutional absence, this cycle may be defined by liquidity, access and deeper capital pools. At press time, BTC traded at $73,862. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $74,650 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $75,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $73,500 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $73,650 and $73,300 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price found support near $73,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $73,650 and $74,000 resistance levels. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A high was formed at $75,500, and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $73,800, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $75,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,400 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,150 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. The first major support is near the $73,650 level. The next support is now near the $73,300 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $71,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $73,650, followed by $73,300. Major Resistance Levels – $75,000 and $75,500.

A crypto analyst has sparked fresh debate after warning investors to consider swapping their Bitcoin (BTC) for XRP. He argues that the shifting global reserve standards could reshape which digital assets gain institutional favor, potentially positioning XRP as a stronger candidate for long-term adoption. The analyst’s comments align with the central bank’s strict reserve policies, highlighting Bitcoin’s limitations.  Crypto Analyst Tells Investors To Dump BTC For XRP Crypto commentator and XRP advocate John Squire is urging investors to dump their Bitcoin for XRP. In a recent X post, Squire shared a video featuring a discussion by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on central bank reserve policy.  Related Reading: Don’t Celebrate Bitcoin Price Above $70,000, Analyst Says It’s “Very, Very Bad” During the discussion, Largarde reiterated that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to meet the requirements for inclusion in official reserve holdings. The declaration has triggered a wave of reaction across the crypto community, reopening debates about how digital assets fit into the global financial system. This rejection of Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the European Central Bank is the primary reason Squire is urging investors to pivot to XRP. He likely believes that shifting regulatory and institutional preferences could favor XRP over BTC in the long term.  Notably, as the world’s largest and most recognized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has often been touted as a reserve currency despite its volatility and unpredictable nature. Because of its dominant position and widespread institutional adoption, the US government has also repeatedly hinted that Bitcoin could become a strategic reserve currency. However, the same is not true in Europe, where regulators have taken a more cautious, skeptical stance toward Bitcoin, making its inclusion at the ECB far less likely in the near future. Why Bitcoin Does Not Qualify As An ECB Reserve Asset During her discussion, Largarde outlined reasons why the ECB has chosen to exclude Bitcoin entirely from its reserve holdings. She indicated that Bitcoin does not meet the criteria that central banks require for reserve currencies. According to her, Central Bank reserves must remain liquid, secure, and free from concerns linked to illicit activity and financial risks.  Related Reading: Why XRP Price Is About To Stage The Breakout Of The Decade Largarde also noted that reserve assets must prioritize stability and trust within the global financial system, reinforcing the cautious stance banks and financial institutions continue to take toward digital assets like Bitcoin. Her remarks quickly drew attention from the crypto community via Squire’s X account. Many market participants debated which digital asset, if any, could align more closely with future reserve settlement frameworks. While some community members agree with Squire to dump their Bitcoin for XRP, others suggest diversifying into both digital assets to mitigate risk. Regardless of the final decision, Largarde’s statements highlight the continued skepticism surrounding cryptocurrencies. Her comments do not represent a direct policy change but rather a reaffirmation of existing central bank principles in the EU. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to advance above major hurdles during the recent recovery, with price action failing to break through the $76,000 resistance level.  The market signals also show that several major cryptocurrencies—Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), and XRP—managed to track Bitcoin’s rebound. Even with that follow-through, they have likewise not fully cleared their own higher resistance levels.  Still, some analysts believe a cluster of supportive factors is starting to line up in a way that could lift both BTC and the broader crypto market to levels not seen since the beginning of the year. ‘Perfect Time’ For Bitcoin In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), market analyst Ash Crypto claimed that Bitcoin’s bullish setup could hardly be better at this point, and attributed that view to six catalysts he believes could push prices higher.  Among them, Ash pointed to the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, alongside expectations that the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq could also set new highs soon.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Policy Institute Maps Out Strategy For US Stablecoin Supremacy Across 5 Policy Areas He also cited US economic data, highlighting that the ISM PMI has been above 52 for three straight months. In addition, Ash also referenced geopolitical headlines, arguing that peace talks involving the US, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon could reduce uncertainty and support risk appetite. On the crypto-specific side, Ash emphasized institutional and ecosystem demand. He noted that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are buying billions of BTC each week, framing it as an ongoing source of accumulation.  Finally, he suggested that the pace of development is accelerating in response to the “quantum threat,” which he sees as an additional long-term tailwind.  Why Altcoin Upside Is Possible Putting those pieces together, Ash concluded that conditions are “the perfect time” for Bitcoin to push toward the $85,000–$90,000 range, and that the move would likely be supportive for altcoins as well. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps If the catalysts he highlighted continue to gain traction—starting from equity strength and macro stability, alongside institutional BTC demand—then both Bitcoin’s ascent and an altcoin resurgence could become increasingly plausible. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has explained why the Bitcoin price has shown strength amid the US-Iran war, with the leading crypto rallying above $75,000. BTC is notably up over 12% since the war started, outperforming the stock market and gold.  Why The Bitcoin Price Has Rallied Above $75,000 Despite U.S.-Iran War In his weekly Bitwise memo, Hougan stated that the Bitcoin price strength during the US-Iran war stems from the conflict itself. He explained that BTC has outperformed gold and the stock market because investors are betting on either of the crypto’s two major use cases or narratives. The first narrative is that Bitcoin will become “digital gold” and so will be able to compete with physical gold in the $38 trillion “store of value” market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again He noted that this is BTC’s current use case, and this narrative may be why the Bitcoin price has rallied amid the US-Iran war as investors see it as a safe haven rather than a risk asset. The Bitwise CIO described this bet on BTC as digital gold as very attractive and predicted that the leading crypto could reach $1 million if it captures 17% of the store-of-value market.  Meanwhile, Hougan stated that the second bet on BTC is the belief that it might act like a traditional currency, suggesting that this is another reason that it is outperforming during this ongoing conflict. He noted that this second bet is like an “out-of-the-money call option” where it pays off if BTC is used more widely for international settlement.  The Bitwise CIO stated that for most of Bitcoin’s life, it seemed unlikely that it would become a global currency, as until a few years ago, the world relied exclusively on dollar-based financial rails. However, that is now changing. He alluded to Iran receiving BTC for toll payments at the Strait of Hormuz, which has boosted the crypto’s status as a currency and contributed to the Bitcoin price rally.  World Monetary Order Is Flipping In BTC’s Favor The Bitwise CIO noted that the US-Iran war has made the world monetary order more volatile, but has also increased the probability that Bitcoin will become a global currency. As such, the war has made BTC a more valuable out-of-the-money call option, which is why the Bitcoin price has shown strength during this period.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Successfully Shorted The Bitcoin Price Top Announces A Change In His Plan Hougan added that with Iran’s move to accept BTC payments, the world has taken a step closer to integrating an apolitical currency into the global financial ecosystem. Therefore, whenever conflicts like the US-Iran war occur, the incentive to invest in apolitical assets like BTC increases, which serves as a catalyst for a higher Bitcoin price.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price is approaching a critical resistance zone as a crypto analyst warns of a potential volatility spike ahead. Apparently, an important liquidity cluster is stuck to this key level, with market participants watching closely for a breakout or rejection. How price reacts at this resistance zone could determine whether Bitcoin extends its recent rally from above $74,000 toward $79,000 or faces renewed selling pressure in the near term.  Bitcoin Price Nears Next Critical Resistance Level On April 14, Ardi, a crypto market analyst on X, presented a new Bitcoin price analysis, unveiling a key resistance level around $76,000 that could determine the cryptocurrency’s next short-term move during the ongoing bear market. Ardi has pointed to heavy liquidity clustered between $75,000 to $76,000 on his price chart, noting that Bitcoin is now rapidly rising toward this area. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Says It’s ‘Almost Certain’ That Price Will Reach $1,000 In This Timeframe According to the analyst, this resistance zone has been building since early March this year and contains a mix of trapped traders, including late short sellers and early breakout buyers who were caught on the wrong side of price action. Ardi explained that if Bitcoin successfully breaks above the level, it could trigger a chain reaction in the market.  He stated that short sellers may be forced to close their positions by buying back, while sidelined buyers could re-enter the market, adding upward pressure to Bitcoin’s price. He noted that this dynamic could push BTC toward the next liquidity pocket between $77,500 and $79,300, where price is likely to face another test of resistance.  In the near term, the analyst says he is looking to take quick long trades if the breakout occurs, but only under strict market conditions. Ardi emphasized the importance of BTC not just breaking $76,000, but holding firmly above it. A successful move could see the level flip from resistance into support, signaling that buyers have taken control of the market. On the other hand, failing to hold that level could invalidate the setup and signal a false breakout, potentially leading to an extended price decline.  Breakout Above $76,000 May Trigger A Squeeze The $76,000 region is considered particularly significant because of the concentration of market participants there. Ardi noted that many traders will likely react to this level, with some attempting to sell into the strength, which could make a breakout even harder. Despite this, the analyst added that if BTC manages a clean move above this resistance, it could trigger a squeeze higher, potentially accelerating price sharply to the upside.  Related Reading: XRP Sentiment Is Sitting At Levels That Have Led To A Price Rally, But Is This Time Different? Looking at the bigger picture, the analyst remains cautious about Bitcoin’s outlook. While a short-term rally is possible, he still considers a lower high on the macro timeframe as the most likely outcome. Based on current market behavior, they suggest that BTC could peak somewhere between $79,000 and $81,000 before facing a fresh round of selling pressure.  At the same time, Ardi warned that downside risk remains. He indicated that a price drop below $74,900 is still on the table, and even if Bitcoin attempts a move higher, the $76,000 level could act as a strong barrier due to the amount of liquidity and interest there.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has climbed back toward a key on-chain resistance zone, but Glassnode says the move still looks more like a fragile rebound than the start of a fully convincing trend shift. In its latest The Week On-chain report, the analytics firm said Bitcoin was trading near $74,000, roughly 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78,100, a level it framed as the market’s most important near-term test. Glassnode’s central argument is that the market has improved enough to keep the rally alive, but not enough to remove the structural risks overhead. Spot demand has recovered, ETF flows have turned positive again, and institutional exposure is beginning to rebuild. Even so, profit-taking is rising, derivatives positioning remains cautious, and participation is still uneven across venues and investor groups. Glassnode Flags A Fragile Bitcoin Rally Near Major Resistance The report said Bitcoin “has gradually trended higher, now trading near $74k, approximately 5.2% below the True Market Mean, tracing the cost basis of active supply.” It added that while price has not yet broken above that threshold and held it, “the probability of a spike toward and potentially above it remains considerable in the mid-term.” That leaves the market in an awkward position: close enough to resistance for traders to focus on a breakout, but not yet strong enough to suggest the ceiling has truly given way. One of the main reasons Glassnode stops short of endorsing the move outright is the behavior of short-term holders. The firm highlighted the share of short-term holder supply in profit, which measures how much recently acquired supply is sitting on unrealized gains. Historically, local tops in bear market rallies have often formed as that figure approaches its statistical mean of around 54.2%. It currently stands at 43.2%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Alert: German State Could Take Control of Another 57,000 BTC That, according to the report, means the rally may still have some room to run before it reaches a more typical exhaustion zone. But it is also a reminder that Bitcoin is moving into an area where distribution pressure tends to build, especially if newer market participants start using strength to de-risk. Glassnode sees that process already underway in broader realized profit-taking metrics. The 30-day EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio now sits at 1.16, a reading above 1 that signals realized profits are outpacing realized losses. In the firm’s words, “the current reading of 1.16 confirms that investors are broadly seizing the present rally as an opportunity to exit positions at breakeven or capture thin profit margins. While this is not an immediate reversal signal, a sharp spike in this ratio during a bear market rally has historically been a cautionary indicator of distribution rather than genuine demand recovery.” That distinction runs through the entire report. The rebound is real, Glassnode suggests, but the character of the move still matters. For the rally to evolve into something more durable, the market would need to absorb selling pressure and establish support above $78,100, not merely trade up to it. Off-chain data tells a similar story. Spot cumulative volume delta has improved sharply since February’s capitulation, but the demand profile remains selective. Binance-led buying has outpaced Coinbase, suggesting stronger participation from offshore and retail-driven segments than from the institutional cohort often associated with Coinbase flows. Glassnode called that divergence notable, arguing that sustained rallies typically need broader engagement from both sides of the market. Institutional proxies have also improved, albeit cautiously. CME futures open interest has started rebuilding from local lows, and US spot ETF assets under management have turned higher after a stretch of outflows. Still, neither series has returned to previous highs, which Glassnode said points to “a more cautious re-engagement, rather than a full risk-on shift.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says In derivatives, the firm found little evidence of strong directional conviction. Funding rates remain broadly balanced, implied volatility has compressed across the curve, and 25-delta skew continues to favor puts over calls, even if the tilt has softened from more defensive extremes. In plain terms, traders have reduced some of their stress hedging, but they have not rotated aggressively into upside exposure either. Hyperliquid liquidation data reinforces that picture of a reactive market. Dense long liquidations sit between $63,000 and $65,000, while short liquidation clusters are concentrated around $74,000 to $76,000. Recent price action has repeatedly interacted with those zones, suggesting flows and liquidation mechanics are still shaping the range more than strong underlying conviction. Glassnode also flagged dealer positioning as a key near-term market structure factor. A large pocket of negative gamma between $74,000 and $76,000 could amplify moves if spot continues higher, turning what might look like resistance into an area where hedging flows accelerate price. Even so, the report stops well short of declaring a breakout regime. The result is a market that looks healthier than it did during the February washout, but still far from settled. Bitcoin bulls may have a clear target in $78,000, yet Glassnode’s message is that reclaiming it will require more than momentum alone. It will take sustained inflows, deeper institutional participation, and enough real demand to absorb the profit-taking now building into strength. At press time, BTC traded at $74,905. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has seen a lot of sell-offs recently that have contributed to the decline in its price. As a result, there has been a lot of panic in the market as the sentiment shifted deep into the negative. However, it seems like the larger investors are actually looking at the current downtrend as an opportunity to fill up their bags. The buying has been rapid recently, suggesting that I stations are actually picking up whatever BTC retail has been dumping on the market. What The Big Players Have Been Up To The last week has seen a lot of activity from large investors when it comes to Bitcoin and the crypto industry at large. Instead of following the crowd and taking a cautious stance, they have instead been buying up coins at a rapid rate, suggesting bullishness among these big players. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Hit The Last Bull Trap, But The Accumulation Level Lies Much Lower CoinShares reported that numbers for last week had risen rapidly, with institutions putting $1.1 billion into crypto products. As expected, the vast majority of this inflow had moved into Bitcoin, with $871 million moving into BTC products. This move signaled a change in the sentiment toward Bitcoin, especially among large investors, as they continue to pour into the digital asset. In the same vein, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has also continued its Bitcoin buying spree, with its latest purchase coming in on Monday. According to the announcement, the company had spent another $1 billion buying 13,927 BTC at an average of $71,902 per coin. This move brought the public company’s total Bitcoin holdings to $780,897 BTC, with over $59 billion spent buying the digital asset since 2020. It follows the trend that the big players are still very bullish on Bitcoin’s future despite the decline. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Still Ramping Up Although there have been some outflows from the Bitcoin ETF funds, the inflows far outweigh the selling. According to data from the Farside Investors website, the inflows far outweigh the outflows for the last week, and the trend has continued in the new week. Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Relief Rally Above $71,000 Says About Where The Price Is Headed Analysts are also predicting that the Bitcoin price will continue to surge, with Merlijn The Trader saying the BTC price will hit $150,000 once the manipulation phase is over. But the decision still remains to be made, and this will happen at $70,000. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo also pointed out that Bitcoin capital flows have turned positive for the first time since January. This means that liquidity is now returning to the market again and could provide a much-needed prop for the price to continue to rally. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

A proposed court deal in the movie2k case could put another 57,000 Bitcoin within reach of the German state, reviving a supply-overhang story that the market thought had largely passed after Saxony’s 2024 Bitcoin liquidation. Local news MDR reported this week that the presiding judge has outlined a possible agreement that would let Saxony keep the €2.64 billion ($3.112 billion) already raised from last year’s Bitcoin sale and potentially obtain access to additional coins allegedly still controlled by the main defendant. German State Could Gain Access To 57,000 BTC The case centers on the former operators of the illegal streaming portal movie2k.to, now on trial. The lead defendant, 42, is charged in part with commercial money laundering, while a second defendant, 39, faces money-laundering and tax-evasion allegations. The original copyright offenses tied to roughly 220,000 unauthorized works are now time-barred, but the fight over the Bitcoin fortune remains very much alive. After the main defendant’s arrest in 2023, authorities received 49,858 BTC, which were later sold in June and July 2024 for about €2.64 billion. According to MDR’s reporting, the judge sketched the deal on Monday as a way to shorten proceedings rather than litigate every alleged money-laundering violation one by one. Under that outline, the main defendant would confess and receive a prison sentence of one to one-and-a-half years, suspended on probation, while the co-defendant would receive eight to 12 months, also suspended. The real market-moving clause is elsewhere: Saxony would be able to lawfully confiscate the 2024 sale proceeds, and the defendant would also hand over access to another 57,000 BTC (worth roughly $4.224 billion) that prosecutors believe he still controls. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps The legal hinge is whether expired copyright counts still leave room for asset confiscation through the remaining charges and related forfeiture mechanisms. In remarks carried by MDR, court spokesperson Katrin Seidel framed it this way: “It is, in essence, about a large number of copyright violations. But those are time-barred. That means criminal law can no longer reach them.” She added that the money generated from those acts can still potentially be stripped away as criminal proceeds, which is one of the central issues in the case. The 57,000 BTC figure is not coming out of thin air. Prosecutors have argued that the main defendant originally acquired 136,000 BTC with proceeds from advertising and subscription traps linked to the site. After subtracting the nearly 50,000 BTC already transferred to authorities, additional amounts allegedly sold off, and 22,000 BTC and 5,000 BTC said to have been paid to associates, the state’s working assumption is that around 57,000 BTC remain. That estimate has been part of the prosecution narrative since the opening phase of the trial. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says The defense has pushed back hard. In dpa-covered proceedings, lawyers described the indictment as “economically driven,” arguing that the case appears aimed above all at dividing up the defendants’ Bitcoin wealth and constructing a basis for state seizure. That tension matters because the proposal is not final, the defense has criticized its premise, and it remains unclear whether the main defendant would accept any deal that includes surrendering access to additional coins. For Bitcoin traders, the story is less about an immediate transfer than about the reappearance of a familiar risk: state-controlled supply that could eventually be sold into the market. Saxony’s last liquidation became a widely watched price event. If this deal advances and the 57,000 BTC are actually reachable, that overhang comes back into view. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $74,320. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has faced strong rejection around the $76,000 resistance zone, signaling that bullish momentum is beginning to fade at higher levels. With selling pressure increasing and key support levels now in focus, the market is entering a critical phase where a breakdown could start to take shape if buyers fail to regain control. Rejection At $74,000–$76,000 Caps Bitcoin’s Momentum Bitcoin faced a firm rejection after pushing into the $74,000–$76,000 resistance zone, highlighting strong selling pressure at the top of the range. The inability to sustain momentum above this region suggests that bulls are struggling to take full control, leaving price vulnerable to short-term pullbacks. Related Reading: Why Every Bitcoin Macro Triangle Breakdown Has Led To A Retracement Phase According to analyst Kamile Uray, the $70,467 level on the 4-hour chart has now become a critical pivot point. As long as BTC continues to hold above this level, the structure remains supportive of further upside.  If a breakout above resistance occurs with strong volume confirmation, Bitcoin could extend its rally toward the $79,000 level. Beyond that, $98,000 stands as the next major macro target to monitor. However, repeated rejection at resistance combined with a breakdown below $70,467 would weaken the structure and likely open the door for a move into the $68,000–$66,000 support region. On the daily timeframe, the $65,666 level remains a crucial foundation for the broader trend. Staying above it preserves the bullish outlook in the bigger picture, but a decisive close below this level would signal growing weakness. In that scenario, BTC could revisit support zones at $63,823, $62,433, and $60,000, with a daily close under $60,000 potentially confirming a more extended bearish phase. Bearish Engulfing Hints At Shift In Market Control In a recent BTC update on the 4-hour timeframe, analyst Minga revealed that the price is currently ranging above the previous weekly high on lower timeframes, indicating a period of consolidation after the recent upward push. While holding above this level suggests some underlying strength, the lack of follow-through highlights growing hesitation among buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Map Reveals Key Support And Resistance Zones – Analyst On the 4H chart, Bitcoin pushed into the upper boundary of its rising channel but was met with a strong rejection. The move was followed by a bearish engulfing candle, a pattern that often signals a shift in momentum at key resistance zones. The first 4H candle of the new day attempted to reclaim upside momentum but ultimately closed as an inverted hammer. Such a formation typically reflects a potential continuation to the downside. Bears are gradually stepping in and building a stronger case for a pullback. A decisive break below the $73,700 level could accelerate the move toward the lower boundary of the rising wedge. If that structure breaks to the downside, Bitcoin could extend its decline toward the monthly open region around $65,000 over the coming weeks. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh surge and cleared the $74,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $75,000 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $73,500 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $74,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $75,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $73,650 and $73,300 levels. Bitcoin Price Aims for Steady Gains Bitcoin price found support near $73,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $73,500 and $73,650 resistance levels. The last swing high was formed at $76,088 before there was a downside correction. The price dipped below $74,000. It even spiked below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $70,518 swing low to the $76,088 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $74,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $75,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $73,650, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $75,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,250 level. The first major support is near the $73,650 level. The next support is now near the $73,300 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $70,518 swing low to the $76,088 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,650 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $73,650, followed by $73,300. Major Resistance Levels – $75,000 and $76,000.

The idea of a hidden backdoor in Bitcoin strikes at the very heart of what the network claims to represent: decentralization, transparency, and trustless control. Over the years, a persistent theory has circulated, suggesting that before disappearing, Satoshi Nakamoto may have left behind an override key. This mechanism could theoretically influence or even control the network. The Mystery Behind Satoshi Nakamoto And The Bitcoin Origins In the early days of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced the Alert Key and gave one developer the secret key that could override every BTC node. An analyst known as Sweep, the Co-Founder of GlydeGG, revealed on X that in 2010, after the infamous 184 billion bug coin that nearly collapsed the entire network, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced this key designed to help protect Bitcoin in emergencies. Related Reading: Adam Back Denies Being Bitcoin Creator In Response To NYT: ‘I Am Not Satoshi’ When a valid alert was received, BTC clients could enter a form of safe mode, warning users and, in certain cases, limiting normal operation to prevent further damage. Before stepping away, Satoshi transferred this powerful key to Gavin Andresen and also handed over the control of the code repository. Access to the key was reportedly limited to three people: Satoshi Nakamoto, Gavin Andresen, and Theymos. Between 2012 and 2014, the alert key was used 12 times to issue emergency upgrade notices. This decentralized currency with no central authority had a hidden override switch and was controlled by three individuals for six years. This mechanism remained in place until the release of BTC version 0.13.0 in 2016, when it was removed as the network matured and no longer required a centralized alert. Then, in 2018, developers published the key publicly, ensuring it could never be used again in any capacity. Sweep argues that even the most decentralized financial network in history has a hidden backdoor the entire time, and almost nobody knew about it. How Bitcoin Naturally Gravitates Toward Untapped Liquidity Zones Bitcoin’s price action is currently signaling that the rally is nearing exhaustion because the market has already achieved its primary objective on the upside. Crypto trader Max Trades on X has highlighted that the buyers have aggressively driven the price higher, sweeping through all the major liquidity clusters sitting above. With upside liquidity now largely cleared, the market naturally shifts its focus to where liquidity remains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides As Failed Diplomacy Sparks Wave Of Shorting Activity According to Max Trades, the first key area sits around $70,000, where a significant liquidity cluster aligns with a strong support level. Below that, another large cluster sits at the range low between $65,000 and $66,000. Even if the bullish trend continues, BTC would see a pullback around the current area and sweep the liquidity around the $70,000 zone. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be approaching another pivotal point in its long-term market cycle, according to a recent analysis shared by crypto analyst @CryptoTice on X. The analyst argues that a time-based signal that historically appeared at major market bottoms has triggered again, a development he suggests has previously preceded large upward expansions in price. A 14-Month Timing Pattern That Has Marked Bitcoin Bottoms The signal highlighted by CryptoTice centers on a recurring 14-month period that has historically followed Bitcoin’s most significant market downturns. In the chart attached to the analyst’s post, this timeframe appears repeatedly across several market cycles, each instance marked by a red segment labeled “14 Months” followed by a large green expansion box representing the next upward move. Related Reading: XRP Sentiment Is Sitting At Levels That Have Led To A Price Rally, But Is This Time Different? The pattern begins with the 2014 market cycle. After the prolonged decline that followed the 2013 peak, Bitcoin spent roughly fourteen months consolidating before establishing a durable bottom. According to the chart, the market then transitioned into a powerful rally that carried prices into the next major bull phase. A similar sequence appeared again after the 2018 bear market. The chart illustrates another fourteen-month stretch between the bottoming phase and the beginning of a major upward trend. Once that period concluded, Bitcoin entered the rally that eventually drove the market to new highs during the 2020–2021 cycle. The third example referenced in the chart occurs after the 2022 market downturn. Again, the timing window highlighted by the analyst spans approximately fourteen months before the market structure shifted upward. In each case, the chart visualizes a comparable structure: a defined time interval following a bear-market low, followed by a strong expansion phase. CryptoTice claims that the same timing alignment has now appeared again in 2026. Why Analysts Say This Bitcoin Signal Could Matter The analyst argues that the current cycle has now reached the same 14-month timing window that historically aligned with previous Bitcoin market bottoms. This timing condition alone does not confirm a rally. Instead, it acts as a structural prerequisite that has repeatedly appeared before major upward movements. Related Reading: It’s Too Early For A Bitcoin Price Bottom, Here’s What You Should Be Looking At The reasoning behind the signal focuses on broader market dynamics. According to the analysis, several underlying conditions have already unfolded during this period. Market risk has been repriced following previous volatility, excessive leverage within the system has been removed, and overall sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the peak of the previous cycle. When these factors combine with the historical timing structure, the analyst argues that the market environment begins to resemble previous transition points between bear phases and major bull markets. However, CryptoTice emphasizes that time alignment alone does not guarantee an immediate breakout. Instead, he frames the current moment as a potential opportunity window. If the historical pattern repeats as it did after 2014, 2018, and 2022, the analyst believes the market could once again be approaching the early stage of a major expansion cycle for Bitcoin. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto market analyst Marmot has sounded the alarm on the latest Bitcoin price surge, warning that the cryptocurrency’s rally above $70,000 is a “very, very bad” signal. He argues that Bitcoin has not flipped into bullish territory, urging investors and traders not to mistake the recent rebound as a sign of sustained recovery. Based on his technical analysis, Marmot believes that Bitcoin is yet to reach its true bottom, warning that the flagship cryptocurrency could still face another sharp decline. Why The Bitcoin Price Rebound Above $70,000 Is Bad Marmot has called Bitcoin’s price rebound above $74,000 a trap. In a post on X, he emphasized how dire the situation surrounding BTC is, suggesting that the market could be headed for a deeper pullback to new lows once the uptrend reverses. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s pump above $72,000 was not without reason, highlighting that the bounce was a carefully designed whale trap to attract retail buyers before a broader sell-off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again Marmot urged investors not to mistake this relief rally as the beginning of a new bull run. He noted that similar rallies have historically lured traders into poorly timed entries, only to be flushed out. The analyst also outlined why 90% of BTC traders typically get wiped out in November 2026, when previous bear market cycles bottomed.  According to Marmot, during a bear market, Bitcoin often experiences bull traps, in which sudden price pumps create the illusion that the downtrend has ended. This move tends to fuel hope and trigger FOMO among investors, leading many to buy into the rebound.  Once this happens, Bitcoin’s price reverses sharply to the downside, often falling back to levels it reached before the rally began, triggering heavy liquidations.  The analyst emphasized that, beneath the recent price strength, global liquidity is drying up as institutions quietly exit the market to limit downside risk. With weaker demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on market sentiment, Marmot believes Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is still very far away.  Timeline And Target For Bitcoin’s Price Bottom In his chart analysis, Marmot referenced past cycles, noting that Bitcoin has historically experienced long drawdowns before forming a bottom. He pointed out that in 2012, Bitcoin traded sideways for up to 405 days before it hit a bottom. In the 2026 cycle, the cryptocurrency found a price floor after about 362 days, and finally, in 2020, the market declined for roughly 376 days before reaching a bottom.  Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Relief Rally Above $71,000 Says About Where The Price Is Headed Based on this historical bear market pattern, Marmot estimates that Bitcoin’s capitulation phase in this cycle could occur between July and November 2026. His chart shows that BTC’s price could rise even higher above $78,000 before experiencing a final pullback below $54,000, where it may likely find its true bottom. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is pressing up against a major decision point after failing to break above the $76,000 resistance level. Following consecutive rejections in that area, the cryptocurrency has shifted into consolidation once again.  Bitcoin Set For A ‘Final Push’ One of the latest bullish takes came on Wednesday from market analyst Ted Pillows, who recently suggested that Bitcoin has broken out of a broader 7-month downtrend.  In his view, this shift is supported by a technical signal on the weekly chart: a weekly MACD bullish cross. Pillows argues that, together, these developments could trigger what he describes as a final push higher, with BTC potentially targeting the $77,000–$78,000 zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Higher: What The Market Data Says Could Happen Next Yet Pillows also included a warning that tempers the upside outlook. He said that after Bitcoin reaches that area, the cryptocurrency could fall to new yearly lows in the second quarter, without offering a specific price level for how low BTC might drop.  In explaining why a bottom might form later, Pillows pointed to the macroeconomic backdrop. He believes the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair will accelerate rate cuts and drive liquidity injections in the third quarter as mid-term elections approach.  According to his scenario, that policy shift would help establish a market bottom for Bitcoin and could set the stage for a “V-shape” recovery, similar to what the market experienced during March 2020 and again in April 2025. Extreme Capitulation Scenario A separate technical post from analyst Ali Martinez focused more directly on timing and “capitulation” levels that could define the floor. Martinez highlighted the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price of approximately $49,387 as what he called the final line of defense for the cycle.  Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps In his framework, if Bitcoin reaches that level and holds, it may prevent the market from sliding into a more severe outcome. However, Martinez also described an extreme scenario—what he referred to as a “black swan” event—where a further wick down could occur to the -0.2 Standard Deviation Band at $36,657. Martinez suggested that these two levels can be viewed as “Generational Entries,” meaning they could represent points where longer-term participants step in and where conditions begin to shift from capitulation toward recovery.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $74,000 level after a stretch of bullish price action that has brought buyers back into the market and renewed optimism around a broader recovery. While price momentum remains the focus for most traders, an important structural development is quietly unfolding on the supply side — one that could play a meaningful role in determining whether the current strength holds or fades. Related Reading: Ethereum Just Saw Its Strongest Institutional Demand Signal Since October: Find Out If It Lasts According to an Arab Chain report, the Miners’ Position Index has moved into negative territory, recording a reading of approximately -0.83. That reading reflects a clear shift in miner behavior: rather than transferring Bitcoin to exchanges in preparation for selling, miners are currently opting to hold. The result is a meaningful reduction in one of the market’s most consistent sources of structural selling pressure. The historical context makes the current reading more significant. When the MPI rises above 2, it has consistently signaled periods of elevated miner selling — and the chart shows that those spikes have coincided with price corrections. The current negative reading represents the opposite condition: miners are not adding to exchange supply, and the overhead pressure that those transfers typically create is largely absent from the market right now. For Bitcoin attempting to consolidate gains near $74,000, that matters. Rallies that develop without miner selling pressure tend to face fewer internal headwinds than those that must absorb simultaneous supply from the network’s largest producers. A Different Pattern From the Spikes The chart history behind the current MPI reading adds important context. Over the previous months, the index experienced several sharp spikes above the 2 level — and each one coincided with a period of price weakness for Bitcoin. That correlation was not subtle. When miners moved aggressively to exchanges, price followed downward. The pattern was consistent enough to function as a leading indicator of short-term selling pressure entering the market from one of its most structurally significant sources. The current phase looks different. Rather than spiking, the index is moving within a low, stable range — a behavioral shift that suggests miners have collectively stepped back from the distribution posture that defined those earlier episodes. At -0.83, the index is not just below the danger threshold. It is signaling that the miners who drove previous corrections are currently sitting on their coins rather than moving them toward exchanges. With Bitcoin trading near $74,000, the timing of that shift matters. A price attempting to consolidate at elevated levels is considerably more durable when the supply side is quiet than when it is actively adding overhead. The report frames the outlook carefully — continued stability in the MPI would support more balanced price action going forward, while any return toward the 2 threshold would warrant closer attention as a signal that miner behavior is shifting back toward distribution. For now, the pressure that caused previous corrections is absent. That is not a guarantee of further upside, but it removes one of the clearest historical triggers for downside. Related Reading: XRP Has Not Been This Illiquid Since 2021: The Setup Nobody Is Talking About Bitcoin Approaches Structural Inflection Point Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $74,000 level after a sharp February breakdown that reset market structure and flushed leverage. The selloff, marked by a high-volume capitulation wick into the low $60,000s, defined the current range and established a clear local bottom. Since then, the price has been forming a series of higher lows, indicating gradual buyer re-entry and stabilization. The recovery, however, is now testing a critical confluence zone. The $74,000–$75,000 region aligns with prior support turned resistance and sits directly beneath the declining 100-day moving average (green), while the 200-day (red) remains significantly higher, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Related Reading: Ethereum Profit-Loss Indicator Is Hovering Just Below Neutral – The Market Waits for A Catalyst Short-term momentum is improving. The 50-day moving average (blue) has turned upward and is supporting price from below, suggesting that the current move is structurally healthier than previous relief rallies. However, the lack of expansion in volume compared to the February capitulation implies that this is still a controlled recovery rather than aggressive accumulation. The key variable is acceptance above $75,000. A sustained break would shift the structure toward a continuation phase and open the path toward the $80,000 region. Failure to break cleanly would likely result in another rejection, reinforcing the current range between roughly $68,000 and $75,000. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The US-Iran war continues to affect Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices, with volatility at high levels. However, risk-on sentiment also appears to be returning, with open interest rising as BTC rises to a new multi-month high.  How The US-Iran War Affects The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Prices In an X post, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the US-Iran war continues to drive market volatility. He further remarked that there won’t be a path forward where the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices will do well if this continues to be the consensus. However, he added that the U.S. economy is “sufficiently weak” and that the Fed has no choice but to start printing money again, which is a positive for these risk assets.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Playing Out The Same Cycle Again On A Bigger Scale Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices have so far held up amid the US-Iran war, with BTC rallying to a multi-month high of $76,000 yesterday. This comes as market participants continue to price in an imminent end to the war despite the fragile two-week ceasefire. US President Donald Trump recently mentioned that another round of peace talks could happen within the next two days, which has also sparked bullish sentiments.  Interestingly, risk-on sentiment has increased amid the US-Iran war, which is also contributing to the rally for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices. On-chain analytics platform Santiment noted that BTC and ETH’s rally to their highest levels since the start of February comes with increased optimism, as margin and leveraged positions are being created rapidly.  Santiment revealed that Bitcoin’s open interest has surged 59% over seven weeks, while Ethereum’s has climbed 45% over the same period. The platform noted that this reflects growing trader conviction but also introduces higher risk as crowded leveraged trades can quickly unwind. They added that when open interest climbs alongside prices, markets often become more volatile, with sudden squeezes in either direction more likely.  Analyst Warns That BTC Has Yet To Form A Bottom Crypto analyst Colin has warned that a bear market bottom has unlikely formed despite the rebound in the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices amid the US-Iran war. He noted that the $60,000 February bottom for BTC was only four months into a typical 12-month cycle, which is why he believes that the $60,000 price level isn’t the bear market bottom.  Related Reading: Ethereum Is About To Go ‘Parabolic’ – Analyst Signals Golden Triangle Formation The analyst acknowledged that the bear market could be shorter this time around, but not by 2/3 of the normal bear cycle. He also noted that Bitcoin’s drop so far from its October 2025 peak is only 53%, compared to the 77% crashes recorded in prior cycles. In line with this, Colin said, “The $60k bottom is *statistically unlikely* to be the bottom.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be approaching a more consequential upside move if current technical and on-chain trends hold, according to Capriole founder Charles Edwards, who argued in a new market note that a cluster of macro, sentiment and blockchain indicators has shifted in a more constructive direction despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop. Edwards framed the current environment as unusually difficult to navigate, with markets swinging between war fears, oil spikes and a fast-moving AI threat landscape. Even so, he said the underlying signal from Bitcoin and broader macro data is increasingly hard to ignore, particularly if BTC can sustain a monthly and weekly close above $71,500, a level he described as a critical threshold. Bitcoin Technicals And On-Chain Turn Bullish On price structure alone, Edwards said a close above $71,500 would mark Bitcoin’s strongest technical monthly finish in a year. On the daily chart, he described the recent move as even more encouraging, citing an engulfing advance and notable relative strength against other markets since the start of the Iran war. That relative performance matters in his framework because Bitcoin had largely traded like a risk asset over the prior nine months. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps He paired that chart view with a series of on-chain signals that, in his view, resemble prior accumulation zones. Normalized dormancy is low, which he said suggests long-term holders are not distributing into weakness. He also pointed to renewed “restacking” by longer-dated holders, including a recent turn in the 2-year-plus cohort, and to deeply depressed SOPR readings, which historically have often coincided with stronger forward Bitcoin opportunities. Miners are sending a similar message, he argued. Edwards said the market remains in a deep miner capitulation phase, referencing Hash Ribbons, while miner sell pressure is also unusually subdued. He added that one of the most important charts in his stack now shows institutions as net buyers again, a backdrop he said has accompanied every major Bitcoin appreciation phase of the last five years when demand exceeded newly mined supply. Taken together, the message was straightforward: “Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it’s hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.” Macro Fear Is Fading, But Not Gone Edwards also tied Bitcoin’s improving backdrop to traditional market gauges. He highlighted a recent VIX macro buy signal after volatility dropped from above 30 toward the 20 area, a CNN Fear & Greed reading back in buy territory, and what he called the biggest weekly jump in US liquidity since May 2025. In his telling, those shifts suggest markets are beginning to move past the sharpest phase of geopolitical panic. That matters because, in his reading, markets are increasingly treating the Iran conflict as a contained risk rather than a lasting macro shock. Oil has moved back below $100, the US-Iran ceasefire is in place, and Bitcoin has outperformed equities by 11% since the war began, according to Edwards. For an asset that had spent months in a broad downtrend, he sees that as a meaningful change in character. He went further, arguing that markets may now be entering what he called “volatility fatigue,” a phase in which investors begin discounting daily headline reversals and return to pricing liquidity, growth and fundamentals instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Ramp Up Accumulation: Holdings Hit 2-Month High Still, the note was not purely a bullish market call. Edwards spent substantial time on what he sees as a growing AI-driven security threat to crypto infrastructure, especially DeFi and complex smart contract systems. He argued that increasingly capable models will compress the time needed to discover and exploit vulnerabilities from months to minutes. His advice was blunt: “If you don’t have a really good reason to use complex DeFi protocols and smart contracts, you probably shouldn’t be as we enter this new AI realm. Think about it. Is it really worth the complexity of juicing out that extra few basis points to lend/borrow/bridge/stake/restake?” That caution sits alongside the bullish case rather than against it. Edwards’ broader argument is that the market is starting to reward opportunity over fear, but only for investors who remain disciplined on risk. “Let’s not overweight the problems in our head, but be prepared accordingly,” he wrote. “Long-term performance has historically rewarded those that position for the optimistic outcome, while concurrently managing risks, diligently monitoring the data and acting with strong conviction. In short, if the current move breaks down next week, and risk metrics start flashing, our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly. Until then, things look great for Bitcoin and equites today.” At press time, BTC traded at $74,117. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Non-profit group Presidio Bitcoin has released a technical report examining the growing quantum computing risk to the Bitcoin network.  The document looks at where quantum capabilities stand today, how much of BTC’s value could be exposed, what mitigations are already feasible, and how the wider ecosystem might coordinate a software update and migration.  Why Upgrades Are Harder In A Decentralized System Presidio Bitcoin begins from a simple point: Bitcoin is software, and that is both its power and its weakness. Because it is built as a system of code, Bitcoin is relatively easy to move, verify, and hold.  At the same time, it inherits digital risks that come with relying on cryptography. One of the most important of those risks has been discussed since Bitcoin’s early days—cryptographically relevant quantum computers, often shortened to CRQCs.  Related Reading: XRP Could Face Big Moves Based On CLARITY Act Outcomes – 3 Key Price Scenarios In theory, a CRQC could break the elliptic curve cryptography that underpins Bitcoin by enabling the derivation of private keys from public keys. The report emphasizes that this would primarily enable quantum-enabled theft of coins tied to exposed public keys.  The report argues that Bitcoin’s mitigation toolkit is broad and technically achievable today, but the path is less straightforward than it is for more centralized systems.  In centralized environments, coordination can be directed more easily. With Bitcoin, coordinating upgrades across developers, users, wallets, custodians, and infrastructure is inherently more complex.  There is also the risk of making changes too early, too quickly, or in a way that creates new vulnerabilities. Presidio also notes that post-quantum schemes come with meaningful trade-offs, not just technical but practical ones for the ecosystem. 6.5 Million Bitcoin Could Be At Risk At the center of the vulnerability is Shor’s algorithm. Presidio explains that if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer exists, it could execute Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys.  The report provides a stark quantitative estimate of what that could mean. If a cryptographically relevant quantum computer existed today, approximately 6.5 million BTC— one-third of the total supply—would be immediately vulnerable to theft. More than two-thirds of that exposure—about 4.5 million Bitcoin—comes from address reuse. Much of the reuse, the report says, is concentrated among a small group of large custodians that use the practice for simplicity.  While that concentration increases the risk profile, Presidio also points out that this portion is reducible without any protocol change. The mitigation is straightforward in concept: rotate to fresh addresses.  The remaining structural exposure is different in nature. Presidio estimates 1.72 million BTC sits in legacy pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) outputs, and the report notes that most of those are presumed lost.  It also distinguishes another category: addresses that have never been spent and where only a hash of the public key is visible on-chain are not vulnerable at rest under current understanding. The Uncertain Clock For CRQCs A major part of the report is the uncertainty around timing. Presidio stresses that the timeline for CRQCs remains uncertain, with expert surveys placing the probability of cryptographically relevant machines emerging between 2030 and 2035 at about 50%.  Even so, Presidio outlines a concrete strategy for Bitcoin network’s path forward. It involves deploying post-quantum signature schemes via a soft fork, rather than a disruptive hard change.  Related Reading: Three-Way Bitcoin Outlook Tied To US–Iran War—Which Case Is Most Realistic? Activation is where timing matters most. Presidio says the Bitcoin ecosystem will likely complete the post-quantum signature activation well before a CRQC threat materializes.  However, Chaincode’s playbook—referenced in the report—places activation around month 6–7 if it does not happen earlier. After activation, migration would follow.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

While others argue that the Bitcoin price has already found its bottom and could be gearing up for a bullish reversal, one crypto analyst has rejected these claims, expecting further downside instead. According to Marmot, a crypto expert on X, Bitcoin has not yet reached its true price floor. He warns that the flagship cryptocurrency could crash below $45,000 before any sustainable recovery to the upside takes shape.  Bitcoin Price Action Mirrors 2022 Bear Market In a recent X post, Marmot shared a bearish analysis of Bitcoin, comparing its current bear market to past cycles. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors patterns seen in the 2022 bear market.   Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Relief Rally Above $71,000 Says About Where The Price Is Headed Notably, Bitcoin has already fallen more than 40% from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Since that peak, the flagship cryptocurrency has trended downward, recording brief price rallies, which Marmot has described as “fake recoveries.” These upside moves temporarily lure investors into the market before prices reverse sharply downwards, leading to losses.  To support his bearish outlook, Marmot has divided Bitcoin’s current bear market into three phases. The first phase was completed after the cryptocurrency crashed by over 54%, now trading at around above $74,000. According to him, the market is now in the second bear phase, a period characterized by repeated bull traps, fakeouts, and continued volatility designed to wipe out short-term investors.  The most recent bull trap was observed after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which sent Bitcoin surging briefly above $73,000. However, this rally proved short-lived as the price quickly reversed toward $71,000 before rebounding again above $74,000 at the time of writing.  As bear traps repeatedly wipe out more shorts and long positions get caught in successive bull traps, Marmot argues that Bitcoin is now entering the final phase of its bear market. He believes that this stage is where Bitcoin’s true bottom is most likely to form.  Analyst Forecasts The “Real” Bitcoin Bottom In his chart, Marmot placed Bitcoin’s projected bottom below the $43,700 level. With the price currently hovering around $74,000, this implies a potential decline of over 40% and a drop of more than 65% from its all-time high.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again Before reaching that low, Marmot predicts that the market could experience one final crash to shake out the remaining market participants. His price chart shows that Bitcoin experienced a bear trap and a bull trap before ultimately bottoming during the 2022 cycle. Notably, the current cycle is almost perfectly repeating the same pattern, with BTC’s bull and bear trap already complete as the market gears up for its next bottom crash.  The chart also shows that rather than a straight decline to the projected price floor, BTC could first drop to $45,500, stage a brief rebound, and then hit a bottom before recovering and climbing back above $45,000 as its new bullish phase begins. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh surge and cleared the $74,200 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $75,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $73,200 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $73,950 and $72,650 levels. Bitcoin Price Aims for More Upsides Bitcoin price found support near $71,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $72,500 and $73,200 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above the key level at $75,000. A high was formed at $76,088, and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $70,518 swing low to the $76,088 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $74,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $74,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,200 level. A close above the $75,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $73,950 level. The first major support is near the $73,300 level. The next support is now near the $72,650 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $70,518 swing low to the $76,088 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $71,850, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $73,950, followed by $72,650. Major Resistance Levels – $75,200 and $76,000.

The Bitcoin price is bouncing back strongly amid growing hopes for a potential shift in the standoff between the US and Iran. So far, BTC has gained roughly 10% in the weekly time frame. This pushed the asset back toward the $76,000 area and briefly marked a nearly one-month high.  The move appears to have been driven by improving sentiment around the conflict, even as tensions remain very real and the US simultaneously took action in the region. Regulatory Clarity Before A Bigger Push? The Bitcoin price rally followed claims by President Donald Trump that Iran had reached out to his administration about possible peace talks. At the same time, the US began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.  Related Reading: XRP Could Face Big Moves Based On CLARITY Act Outcomes – 3 Key Price Scenarios Damien Loh, chief investment officer at Ericsenz Capital, told Bloomberg that Bitcoin is behaving like other risk assets during the move. In his view, the market interpreted Trump’s comments as a sign that the timeline for a deal may be getting extended and that another round of discussions is being pursued.  Loh also added an important nuance: the Bitcoin price has been trading better than broader risk assets, but he suggested it may take additional regulatory clarity before the next leg up can truly take hold.  Specifically, he pointed to the possibility that the Bitcoin price could remain range-bound until the US passes the long-awaited CLARITY Act, the industry’s market structure framework.  Bitcoin Price Breakout Is Just Getting Started Market analyst Ali Martinez, citing data from his latest analysis, argued that the current push higher is not finished. Martinez said BTC has finally broken above a descending trendline on its 12-hour chart after roughly two months of consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle.  He described this as a structural change—essentially signaling that the “coiling” phase is over. If the breakout holds, Martinez expects the Bitcoin price could move toward $80,000, which would mark the highest point since January 31 of this year. Martinez also pointed out that the bullish momentum is happening for more reasons than just the Iran–US news. He said Bitcoin miners have paused forced selling and have been hoarding more than $330 million in BTC over the past few weeks.  Related Reading: Three-Way Bitcoin Outlook Tied To US–Iran War—Which Case Is Most Realistic? On the demand side, the analyst said there’s a noticeable increase in interest from US-based institutions. He referenced the Coinbase Premium metric as one piece of evidence, noting that it has flipped positive.  In his framing, a positive Coinbase Premium suggests that regulated capital may be positioning aggressively ahead of what could be the next upward move. Even after the Bitcoin price initially surged toward $76,000, it later retraced slightly. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was trading around $75,163, still close to a key level Martinez has highlighted.  He set a target of $75,300, explaining that reaching this price point would liquidate roughly $80 million in short positions. Martinez said this could trigger what he described as a “cascading effect,” where forced buying from liquidations catches bearish traders off guard and allows BTC to continue moving higher. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Across multiple market cycles, Bitcoin has shown a consistent technical pattern that often goes unnoticed until it’s already underway. Whenever price breaks down from a macro triangle structure, it has historically marked the beginning of a broader retracement phase rather than an immediate recovery. These large-scale consolidation formations often signal periods of compression, where price action tightens as the market prepares for a decisive move. How Large-Scale Consolidation Patterns Form On The Bitcoin chart The Bitcoin behavior is following a macro triangle breakdown that has remained structurally consistent across cycles. An analyst known as Rekt Capital on X mentioned that when BTC breaks down from its black macro triangle, price tends to retrace until it forms a bear market bottom over time. Related Reading: Bitcoin On The Brink: One Move Could Trigger A Massive Shift In cycles like 2018 and 2022, the macro triangle breakdown triggered rapid bearish acceleration before transitioning into a final accumulation range at the bottom. However, the current market structure echoes the 2014 macro triangle, where price was consolidating beneath the orange macro triangle base. If BTC continues to mirror 2014, it may remain in consolidation for an extended period, with the previous triangle base at around $82,500 acting as a ceiling for price action. Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC tends to form orange boxes as major consolidation zones after breaking down from macro triangles. In 2018 and 2022, these consolidation phases developed at the bear market bottom. Meanwhile, in 2014, BTC formed two distinct consolidation ranges, one immediately after the macro triangle breakdown and another later at the ultimate bear market bottom. If that historical structure repeats, the current consolidation may not mark the end of the downtrend. Instead, it could be an intermediate phase, potentially preceding additional macro downside over time, with a more definitive consolidation range forming closer to the eventual bear market bottom. Trading Below HTF EMAs Confirms Bitcoin Trend Direction Bitcoin’s current structure continues to support a strongly bearish bias. According to a crypto trader known as ctm_trader on X, a high-timeframe bearish head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, and the price is rejecting at the range highs, an area where risk-to-reward clearly favors short positions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Deviated From The Bearish Trend That Began In January And $86,000 Could Be Next At the same time, the majority of liquidity is sitting below the current price, while much of the upside liquidity has already been swept. The recent daily close printed a bearish doji candle. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows bearish momentum shifts. From a technical perspective, the price is trading below the high-timeframe Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), showing that the broader trend remains bearish despite recent upward moves. On lower timeframes, BTC has already experienced a market structure shift, followed by a breakdown below recent lows. Furthermore, the latest rally was largely driven by news and not supported by organic price action. Historically, such impulsive moves tend to retrace. All of these combined make the downside the higher probability moves. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Previous bear markets left scars that are hard to ignore. The 2017 crash wiped out more than 80% of Bitcoin’s value. The 2021 collapse took nearly 77%. So when a fresh wave of analysts began calling for a drop to $50,000, the warnings carried weight — at least on paper. Related Reading: TRUMP Buying Frenzy Builds Ahead Of Mar-A-Lago Power Event A Different Kind Of Cycle Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, said the $50,000 level was being eyed as the last major buying opportunity before any real recovery could take hold. A drop to that price, he said, would represent a “healthy cycle reset” given the pressure from broader economic forces and weak movement of capital into crypto. But Ruck also raised a point that separates this downturn from past ones: Bitcoin is already down roughly 40% from its record high, and this time around, large institutions are involved in ways they simply weren’t before. That changes the math. Prior crashes were driven mostly by retail traders — ordinary people buying and panic-selling. Institutional money behaves differently, and consistent buying pressure from that side of the market may be putting a floor under prices that didn’t exist in earlier cycles. “There is a chance this cycle might not reach an idealized 60% drawdown,” Ruck said, pointing to what he called a distinctively macro-structured market environment. Bitcoin: the big flush… I don’t think we’ve had it yet I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom You can pray for it of course ???? but it won’t help Trend is still down The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out I will reconsider this stance in case bull strength returns It’s just… — Ivan on Tech ???????????? Head Trader @ Bullmania (@IvanOnTech) April 13, 2026 Trader and author Ivan Liljeqvist posted to X that Bitcoin had yet to experience what he called “the big flush.” He said he didn’t believe $60,000 marked the bottom, and that the overall trend remained pointed downward. The small bounces seen along the way, he argued, looked minor against the bigger price picture. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar echoed that view, suggesting Bitcoin was entering a second bear phase that could push prices to $50,000 before any wider distribution of gains takes place. THREE PHASES. BITCOIN ABOUT TO ENTERTHE SECOND. Accumulation: done. Manipulation: loading. Distribution: $150K. Pending. $70K is the decision. Hold it: manipulation is short. Lose it: $50K first. They ran this playbook once already. You watched it happen. pic.twitter.com/yJMAeA6Tfh — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 13, 2026 Geopolitical Tensions Drive Swings Crypto prices don’t move in a vacuum. A temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran sent Bitcoin briefly above $75,000 — the kind of jump that happens when fear lifts, even for a moment. US President Donald Trump announced the two-week pause in hostilities, and markets responded quickly. But the relief didn’t last. Peace talks broke down over the weekend, and by Monday Bitcoin had slipped back below $71,000 after Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising consumer prices, reported in Friday’s CPI data, added further weight. Bitcoin’s all-time high stands at $126,198, set in October 2025. At current prices around $72,500 to $74,600, that puts the drawdown at roughly 40% to 44% — deep, but still well short of the 60% collapse that some models suggest a full bear market requires. BTC STILL LOOKS SUPER BEARISH HTF Weekly short imbalances were filled and rn we can only go to 1M imbalance, which is ~$80K Right after it, I am waiting for a final huge dump to one of my targets: $59K or $50K Either way last dump is coming Notifs on, I’ll call exact bottom pic.twitter.com/twHr5VhxRr — symbiote (@cryptosymbiiote) April 13, 2026 Analysts Split On What Comes Next One analyst posting under the name “symbiote” called the chart “super bearish” on longer time frames, saying a final large drop to either $59,000 or $50,000 was still coming. Others are less certain the floor hasn’t already been set. Related Reading: Dollar’s Shrinking Value Adds Fuel To XRP Bull Case: Finance Expert What makes this cycle harder to read is the mix of forces pulling in both directions. Institutional investment and ETF inflows provide steady demand. Global conflict, inflation data, and uncertain monetary policy cut against that. Neither side has clearly hit the proverbial bullseye. Bitcoin touched a low of around $66,000 in early April before recovering. Whether that low holds — or whether the market has another leg down before it finds real footing — remains an open question that even the most watched voices in crypto can’t agree on. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView