Bitcoin price extended its decline below $73,500. BTC is now consolidating losses but faces many hurdles near $75,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $72,000 and $71,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $75,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $74,000 and $73,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $72,500. A low was formed at $71,532, and the price is now consolidating losses. The current price action is negative below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $72,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,850 level. The first key resistance is near the $74,200 level. A close above the $74,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $75,000 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,500 level and the trend line. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,850 and $78,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $72,000 level. The first major support is near the $71,200 level. The next support is now near the $70,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $70,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $72,000, followed by $71,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,850 and $74,200.
Months ago, a prominent crypto analyst outlined a precise window where the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downside phase. At the time, the projection seemed extreme. Now, with price behavior beginning to align with that roadmap, the analyst has released a far more expansive update — one that not only reinforces the crash call but also maps what comes before and after the next major pivot. Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset In the update shared on X, the analyst integrates yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to define both the potential magnitude of decline and the timing of the next pivot. On the yearly timeframe, Bitcoin sits in what he labels an extreme risk zone ahead of a projected pivot around February 2. The structure is left-translated with distributive price action — a formation linked to late-cycle weakness. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash He compares the current setup to a previous harmonic phase where Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its all-time high before reaching the same pivot window. That decline produced a rebound of about 40% but failed to reach a new all-time high, suggesting the February pivot may bring relief rather than expansion. He also identifies a macro risk window from April to September 2026. On the monthly cycle, the analyst marks a decisive pivot around December 22. Historical drawdowns in similar harmonics were 56%, 77%, and 34%, depending on the cycle context. The 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement formed a mid-bull cycle. Upside rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later 158% expansion, showing that monthly harmonics often host the sharpest price dislocations. On the weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot appears around November 19. Past pullbacks ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by upside expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, providing the tactical signals traders may rely on for short-term adjustments within the broader trend. What’s More: Refined Crash Targets And The Bottom Window Beyond confirming the original crash call, the analyst refines the downside roadmap by synchronizing all three cycles. When harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance increase. While the full drawdown ranges 20%–77%, he narrows the likely decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high, noting deeper bear-market conditions are not yet confirmed. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Continue To Decline If This Doesn’t Happen; Analyst The November weekly pivot appears too early for a macro bottom, with higher-timeframe pressure likely pushing the true pivot into January. A late-November dead-cat bounce is possible before further downside. Key levels: $90,000 (~30% drop) for November, $72,000 (~43% below the high) for January, with further support at $45,000 and $28,000 if selling intensifies. The analyst remains cautious, noting the last comparable yearly harmonic rallied 40% without surpassing the all-time high, with similar limits expected before the May–September 2026 risk window. However, while his four-month-old crash call held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is far from over—investors should prepare for further downside and a multi-stage recovery shaping the next macro cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Recent market data has shown that Bitcoin has been trading at an extended discount on Coinbase. Over the past several months, this negative premium, where BTC prices on Coinbase sit below the international average level, has remained consistent. Such prolonged discounts have historically coincided with periods of market uncertainty or late-stage corrections. How Coinbase Premium Remains Negative For Months Bitcoin has been trading at a persistent discount on Coinbase for the past 3 months. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out on X that this typically reflects large ETF outflows and sustained selling pressure from the US-based investors, which has put pressure on a discount to appear. Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows These conditions are not unusual and have appeared nearly every market downturn or larger range. Thus, this broader market recovery needs the support of ETF inflows and renewed bidding from the US investors to surge higher. For this reason, monitoring the Coinbase premium and discount is important to know when the price flips around. A stronger directional trend combined with steep discounts or premiums often reinforces the prevailing market move. A Relief Rally Could Buy The Market Time Until October Bitcoin has now broken below its April 2025 low, placing the market at an important inflection point. The CEO and founder of ITC_Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, noted that if the price fails to bounce soon, this could turn into a difficult midterm year. However, if the price can bounce back, it would likely provide the market several months of relief, pushing price action to October and potentially aligning with a more durable bottoming process. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Lack Of New Capital Leaves It Vulnerable To Continued Selling Pressure According to Benjamin, the bearish narrative has been dominant for an extended period, which increases the probability of a countertrend rally that could temporarily restore confidence among bulls. Meanwhile, Benjamin has cautioned against attempting to trade such moves. Furthermore, countertrend rallies often occur unexpectedly, not when market participants are actively anticipating them. A sweep of prior lows would offer short-term relief, even during the bull market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC broke below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price moved straight down to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief occurred. From a broader perspective, Benjamin emphasized that the optimal time to sell BTC was late last year, not during panic-driven sell-offs in a midterm year. His focus remains on the larger cycle, suggesting that late Q3 to early Q4 will be a more favorable window to move real money back into the market. Until then, it is just traders trying to make money during difficult times, attempting to trade the support and resistance levels. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released a new analysis of the current state of the crypto market, arguing that the industry has been firmly entrenched in a bear market for over a year. In a report shared on social media, Hougan stated that his research indicates the current downturn began as early as January 2025, despite widespread optimism fueled by institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to new all-time highs. Deep Bear Market Driving Crypto? Posting on X, formerly Twitter, Hougan pushed back against the idea that recent price weakness represents a routine pullback or short‑term dip. Instead, he described the current environment as a full‑scale crypto winter comparable to past downturns in 2018 and 2022. Interestingly, Hougan said the crypto market currently resembles a “2022‑like, Leonardo‑DiCaprio‑in‑The‑Revenant‑style” winter, driven by excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit‑taking by long‑time crypto holders. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Hougan addressed a question many investors have been asking: why prices continue to fall despite a steady stream of positive developments. He pointed to expanding institutional involvement, improving regulation, and broader adoption as clear long‑term positives, but said none of that typically matters during the deepest phase of a bear market. According to Hougan, crypto winters are periods when good news is largely ignored, regardless of its significance. Even developments such as Wall Street firms hiring aggressively or major banks like Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto exposure are unlikely to spark a rally in the short term. He also cited market sentiment indicators to support his view. Hougan noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, even as the newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is publicly supportive of Bitcoin. To him, this disconnect underscores how deeply negative sentiment has become. Drawing on past cycles, Hougan said crypto winters rarely end with renewed excitement or optimism. Instead, they typically conclude when investors are exhausted and disengaged. ETF Support Propped Up Bitcoin? Looking to history, Hougan observed that previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming a year later, and again peaked in October 2021 before hitting its low point in November 2022. By that measure, the current cycle might suggest more pain ahead, particularly since Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025. However, Hougan argued that focusing solely on that date misses a critical detail. In his view, the current winter actually began in January 2025 but was partially hidden by extraordinary institutional inflows. He said strong demand from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked underlying weakness across much of the crypto market. Hougan emphasized the scale of institutional support for Bitcoin in particular, calling it unprecedented. During the period he analyzed, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased more than 744,000 BTC, representing roughly $75 billion in buying pressure. He suggested that without this support, BTC’s price could have fallen by as much as 60%. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Despite this, Bitwise CIO suggested several possible catalysts that could help lift sentiment and mark the beginning of a crypto recovery, including strong global economic growth that reignites risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time. Reflecting on his experience through multiple crypto market cycles, he said the current mood of despair, fatigue, and malaise closely resembles the final stages of past crypto winters. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said she would “make a shift from gold into Bitcoin” after gold’s run left the metal looking extended on a key liquidity-adjusted measure, arguing that bitcoin’s supply dynamics and long-term adoption case still favor the crypto asset despite a sluggish year. Speaking on a Feb. 2 episode of The Rundown interview, Wood framed the call as part of a broader “great acceleration” thesis laid out in ARK’s latest “Big Ideas” report, which expects AI-driven capital expenditure to surge and spill into robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and life sciences through what she described as converging S-curves. Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin Now? Wood pushed back on the idea that bitcoin has “lost its mojo” as gold has outperformed in recent years, starting with a statistical point. “First thing you should know, Bitcoin and gold are not correlated. We did the analysis […] the correlation […] is as close to zero as you can get so no correlation,” she said, adding that in the last two market cycles, gold led bitcoin before the crypto asset caught up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike In 2 Years Her more forceful warning was directed at gold’s positioning versus broad money. “You’ll find this […] a chart showing gold divided by M2. It has only been—it has never been higher. It hit a new all-time high this week,” Wood said, arguing the setup resembles historical extremes that coincided with very different macro regimes. “Gold is probably riding for a fall […] The last two times it was anywhere near this was in the massive inflation […] in the 70s early 80s and […] the Great Depression.” Wood said the stablecoin boom has absorbed some of bitcoin’s “emerging markets” transaction narrative, but she characterized that as a payments-layer substitution rather than a savings-layer replacement. “That’s just for the equivalent of a checking account. When they want real savings, they’re going to buy Bitcoin, we believe,” she said, tying the view to ARK’s long-term upside case. She referenced a bull-case target of $1.5 million by 2030 in the conversation, alongside the firm’s previously discussed seven-figure framework. Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This Her core comparative claim against gold centered on issuance. “The supply growth of Bitcoin is 0.8% per year and it’ll drop to 0.4 in another two years,” Wood said, contrasting it with gold supply growth she pegged at about 1% on average and suggesting mining output could run higher than bitcoin’s deterministic issuance rate. She also pointed to “intergenerational wealth transfer” as a potential tailwind for bitcoin over time. Wood also offered a more tactical explanation for why bitcoin has struggled to sustain upside momentum, pointing to what she described as an October 10 “flash crash” tied to a software glitch at Binance and an auto-deleveraging cascade. “There was a flash crash caused by a software glitch at Binance and there was an auto deleveraging event,” she said. “People were just […] margin called to the tune of about 28 billion dollars […] and we think that is just now washing through the system.” Because bitcoin is “the most liquid of all crypto assets,” Wood argued it becomes “the first margin call,” making it the primary source of forced selling during broad deleveraging. She suggested that overhang is now fading, but her comments came before Monday’s downdraft that saw bitcoin slide to $74,600. In the interview, she said the market was “testing […] around 80,000 again” and expected it to “hold in the 80 to 90,000 range” absent a major geopolitical shock. “Unless all hell breaks loose in Iran […] then maybe we’ll see the store of value come back for Bitcoin,” she added. At press time, BTC traded at $78,377. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025 and is now moving through a correction phase following the local peak near $125,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? On-chain data supports this interpretation. Two key indicators — Percent Unrealised Loss and the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio — point to mounting stress across the holder base, but without the hallmarks of full capitulation. Unrealised losses have risen sharply, tripling since January from roughly 7% to around 22% as prices declined from $95,000 to near $78,000. While this increase signals growing discomfort among investors, it remains well below the 40–60% levels historically associated with deep bear-market capitulation in 2019 and 2023. At the same time, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has dropped around 40% from its peaks, indicating compressed profitability and reduced willingness to sell at a loss, particularly among longer-term holders. Together, these signals suggest Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle stress phase: pressure is building, confidence is weakening, but widespread forced selling has not yet emerged. Profit Compression Without Capitulation Signals Adler also highlights the behavior of the Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR Ratio as a critical lens for understanding the current market phase. This metric compares the profitability of coins being spent by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), offering insight into who is absorbing losses and who is still distributing coins at a profit. High readings indicate that long-term holders are realizing profits far more efficiently than short-term participants, while lower values imply growing loss realization among newer entrants. Since peaking near 1.85 in October, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen to around 1.13, representing a decline of roughly 40%. This sharp compression reflects a clear deterioration in profitability across the market. However, the indicator remains above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, sustained moves below 1.0 have marked periods where short-term holders capitulate en masse, selling at significant losses. Deeper drops into the 0.6–0.8 range coincided with full capitulation and cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2023. At the current level, profit margins are tightening for both cohorts, but long-term holders are still, on average, exiting positions above cost. Adler notes that a decisive break below 1.0 would signal a transition into true capitulation, while a recovery toward 1.3–1.4 would indicate renewed confidence. Taken together with rising unrealised losses, the data points to a mid-cycle stress phase rather than a terminal bear-market bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off Bitcoin price action on the 12-hour chart reflects a market still under structural pressure. Despite a short-term stabilization attempt around the $78,000 zone. After an aggressive sell-off from the mid-$90,000s, BTC broke decisively below multiple key moving averages. This confirms a broader bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. The sharp downside impulse was accompanied by a notable spike in volume. Signaling forced selling and liquidation-driven flows rather than orderly profit-taking. Since tagging the local low near $78,000, the price has attempted a modest rebound. However, this bounce remains technically weak. Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term and medium-term moving averages. Which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Previous support in the $88,000–$90,000 region has clearly flipped into a supply zone. Capping upside attempts and reinforcing the idea of a range forming beneath a broken structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The current consolidation appears more consistent with a relief pause than a trend reversal. Momentum has slowed, but there is no evidence yet of sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand stepping in. As long as BTC remains below the descending moving averages, downside risks persist. The price is vulnerable to renewed tests of the recent lows. Reclaiming and holding above the $82,000–$85,000 area would be required to signal a meaningful shift in short-term structure. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its decline below $75,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $72,850 but faces many hurdles near $76,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $74,000 and $75,000. The price is trading below $79,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $76,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $73,500. A low was formed at $72,865, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $75,000. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. However, the bears are active near $77,000 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $77,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $79,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000 and $80,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,000 level. The first major support is near the $74,000 level. The next support is now near the $72,850 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,000, followed by $74,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,750 and $77,200.
Bitcoin continues to trade below the $80,000 level as the market remains under sustained selling pressure and heightened uncertainty. Recent price action reflects a fragile environment in which downside moves are met with limited conviction from buyers, while broader risk sentiment across crypto stays defensive. As volatility persists, analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain indicators to assess whether the market is approaching exhaustion—or if further downside still lies ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? A new report from CryptoQuant highlights a notable deterioration in holder profitability through the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has fallen to its lowest levels of the past year. The SOPR measures whether coins being spent are moving at a profit or a loss, offering insight into the behavior of different investor cohorts during periods of stress. One key observation is the convergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). The SOPR ratio has dropped sharply toward the critical 1.0 level, indicating that long-term holders are realizing significantly less profit than before—or are choosing to stop selling altogether at current prices. This behavior suggests a growing reluctance to distribute coins into weakness, even as short-term participants continue to face losses. With Bitcoin still below key psychological levels, the evolution of SOPR will be closely watched. Whether this shift marks early stabilization or simply a pause before deeper capitulation remains an open question for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Selling Exhaustion, Not Capitulation The report adds that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors the deterioration seen in SOPR. The price (black line) has reached a local low near $77,900. Aligning with the sharp drop in the ratio toward its lowest levels of the past year. This synchronization suggests that realized selling pressure has intensified alongside the decline in profitability, reinforcing the view that the market has moved into a stress phase rather than a routine pullback. From a sentiment perspective, historically depressed SOPR readings have often coincided with moments when so-called “smart money” reduces selling activity. When coins are no longer being spent at a meaningful profit, long-term holders tend to step back, allowing selling pressure to subside. In past cycles, similar conditions have preceded periods of accumulation or the formation of local market floors. Although timing has varied widely. Two scenarios now stand out. If the SOPR stabilizes around the 1.0 level, it would suggest that heavy distribution from long-term investors is largely exhausted. Creating room for a relief bounce as marginal demand returns. Alternatively, the steep, momentum-driven drop in price increases the likelihood of extended sideways consolidation, as the market digests recent volatility before establishing a clearer trend. In summary, the data points to a flush market. With SOPR at yearly lows, weaker hands appear to have exited, shifting the balance toward longer-term value considerations over short-term fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Averages Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights a market under sustained pressure, despite a modest rebound off recent lows. Price is currently hovering around the $78,000 area after briefly dipping toward the mid-$70,000s, a zone that has acted as an important short-term demand pocket. This bounce, however, has so far lacked follow-through and does not yet signal a structural trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages. The price is trading well under the 100-day and 200-day averages, both of which are now sloping downward. This configuration reinforces the broader bearish bias and suggests that rallies are still being sold into rather than accumulated aggressively. The prior support region between $85,000 and $90,000 has clearly flipped into resistance. Confirming a change in market structure compared to late 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? The sell-off into the $74,000–$76,000 range was accompanied by elevated volume. The subsequent rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies short-covering or tactical buying rather than renewed conviction from longer-term investors. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase into a consolidation or corrective regime. As long as the price remains below reclaimed resistance and fails to regain key moving averages, downside risks remain active. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst and Elliott Wave expert Gert van Lagen has highlighted a critical level that could determine the next move in the Bitcoin price. In a recently shared 2-week chart, Lagen points to a broader market structure that suggests Bitcoin may be preparing for another strong upward leg, provided it continues to hold above $74,000. According to the analyst, this level now serves as a key support zone, marking the boundary between bull-market continuation and a potentially more concerning structural breakdown. Why $74,000 Matters For Bitcoin Price Bull Structure In an X post, Lagen shared a detailed analysis of Bitcoin, predicting its next price move based on Elliott wave structures. His accompanying chart shows BTC completing an extended corrective phase following a multi-year rally. This correction, labeled Wave IV, has pulled the price back into a previous consolidation zone without disrupting the broader bullish structure. As long as Bitcoin remains above $74,400, the analyst views this move as a healthy reset rather than the beginning of an extended bear market. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Dogecoin, And XRP Price Are Crashing This Week Looking back at earlier phases of the cycle helps explain why the $74,400 support level is so critical. Lagen noted that during the build-up to Wave III, Bitcoin experienced a deep retracement that nearly revisited the low from the previous corrective wave before pushing higher. The cryptocurrency’s current price action appears to follow the same pattern, with the latest pullback approaching the bottom of Wave IV at mid-$70,000. This type of pattern repetition is common in Elliott Wave structures and often signals that the market may be preparing for a stronger upward move. In line with this, Lagen highlighted that BTC’s recent price movements match the characteristics of a Wave II correction within a broader Wave V advance. He said that $74,000 remains in the invalidation area. Holding above it keeps Bitcoin’s bullish outlook intact, while a decisive break below it would force a reassessment of BTC’s entire market structure. In any case, the analyst has stated he does not expect Bitcoin to break this support zone. What The Chart Says About Bitcoin’s Next Move If the $74,400 support level continues to hold, the projected path on Lagen’s chart suggests the start of a new impulsive rally that would mark the early phase of Wave V. The initial move higher is expected to push the Bitcoin price back above previous highs, signaling that the corrective phase has ended and momentum has flipped back in favor of the bulls. According to the analyst, if Bitcoin continues to mirror past patterns, a bearish outcome remains less likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Still Rally Above $99,000 Despite Bearish Sentiment, Here’s Why Looking at his chart, Lagen has projected that Bitcoin could experience a bullish continuation toward the $260,000 to $320,000 region, which aligns with sub-wave 3, the strongest phase of a Wave V advance. Following this, the final extension of Wave V is expected to push Bitcoin toward $400,000, reflecting a final-cycle advance and representing a surge of more than 410% from current levels around $78,000. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals are flashing a powerful signal that hasn’t appeared since the last major bull run. Network Growth has surged to extreme levels, mirroring the same conditions seen in early 2021, just before BTC launched its historic rally toward new all-time highs. At the same time, liquidity is rapidly expanding across the market, suggesting fresh capital is flowing in. Rising Network Adoption Strengthens Long-Term Bull Thesis The last time Bitcoin’s network growth and liquidity reached comparable extreme levels was in 2021, just ahead of BTC’s final surge to a new all-time high. Swissblock revealed on X that these metrics are now showing signs of recovery, signaling that a final bullish phase may be forming. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now However, the current divergence and rising metrics alongside the declining price action suggest that investors are re-entering the market primarily to sell. The critical question is whether this renewed participation can persist long enough to allow the market to stabilize. If Network Growth and Liquidity continue to expand sustainably, they could provide the fundamental catalyst for one last upside push before the cycle concludes. FUD has intensified across social media following Bitcoin’s roughly 16% decline since January 28. Santiment has highlighted that after briefly dipping to around $74,600, BTC has rebounded toward $78,300, a move largely attributed to retail selling assets. This behavior is proof that markets move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s narrative. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with social data indicating this is the most bearish that retail has seen since the November 21st crash. Historically, periods of extreme negativity like this have been followed by a short-term relief rally, and early price action suggests this bounce is beginning to resemble the previous two post-FUD recoveries. How Next Cycle Leg Could Push Bitcoin To $104,000 Market expert and investor, The Milk Road, who previously nailed Bitcoin’s drop from its all-time highs, is now predicting a potential 40% gain starting immediately. According to Milk Road, BTC could still experience a correction ranging from -20% to -77% before the next major pivot, which is projected between November 19 and February 2. A shallow 20 to 34% drop seems unlikely. Locally, it should be more than that but smaller than 77%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Performance Shows How Low The Price Will Go Before A Bottom Furthermore, BTC fell roughly -40% between its October 6, 2025, ATH and February 2, a move consistent with prior cycle behavior. Milk Road’s yearly cycle analysis signals a key pivot around February 2, after which BTC could stage a +40% rally, potentially reaching $104,000 between now and September. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off. He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months. He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s bear-market turn can be traced to Oct. 10, 2025, a session widely described as the largest crypto derivatives liquidation event on record, with roughly $19 billion in futures positions forcibly unwound as prices slid sharply off their highs. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues the damage was structural as much as directional: open interest fell by about 70,000 BTC in a single day, wiping out months of leverage build-up and leaving speculation struggling to re-form. He claims that the Oct. 10 flush was “really the one that pushed BTC into a bear market” because of the speed and magnitude of liquidity destruction in futures. Why October 10 Was The Bitcoin Bear Market Beginning Darkfost pointed to a collapse in open interest measured in BTC terms. “In a single day, around 70,000 BTC were wiped out from Open Interest, bringing it back to its April 2025 levels,” he wrote. “That’s the equivalent of more than six months of Open Interest accumulation erased in one session. Since then, Open Interest has been stagnating and struggling to rebuild.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The implication is less about the specific catalyst for the selloff and more about market structure after it. In Darkfost’s telling, the Oct. 10 event wasn’t just a price move; it was a sudden reduction in the market’s capacity to carry leverage, which tends to compress speculative activity across the complex. “Liquidity destruction in an already uncertain crypto market environment is not conducive to a return of speculation, which is nonetheless a key component of the crypto market,” he added. That view resonated with Bitcoin Capital, which replied that “nothing has been the same after 10/10,” adding that “it actually feels like something broke.” Darkfost’s response was blunt about the path back: “It needs to be rebuilt and it can takes months …” In a follow-up post, Darkfost widened the lens beyond derivatives, describing an environment where spot participation has also cooled. He said Bitcoin is entering a fifth consecutive month of correction, with the October 10 event as a major driver due to its impact on futures liquidity, but “not the only factor at play.” Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This He flagged broader liquidity pressure via stablecoin flows and supply. According to his figures, stablecoin outflows from exchanges have coincided with an approximate $10 billion decline in aggregate stablecoin market capitalization over the same period, an additional headwind for risk-taking, particularly when leverage is already being de-risked. Spot volumes, he argued, tell a similar story of disengagement. Since October, BTC spot volumes have been cut roughly in half, with Binance still holding the largest share at $104 billion. He contrasted that with October levels when Binance volume “had nearly reached $200B,” alongside $53 billion on Gate.io and $47 billion on Bybit. Darkfost characterized the contraction as a return to “levels among the lowest observed since 2024,” and read it as weaker demand rather than simply a lull in activity. The current setup, he wrote, “remains uncertain and does not encourage risk-taking,” arguing that a durable recovery would require monitoring liquidity conditions and, “above all,” seeing spot trading volumes return. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,723. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp sell‑off has intensified pressure on Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, even as it continues to expand its already massive cryptocurrency holdings. On Monday, the firm disclosed another BTC purchase at a time when prices were sliding to levels not seen in almost a year. Strategy Adds Bitcoin During Market Sell‑Off According to a securities filing released on Monday, Strategy acquired an additional 855 Bitcoin over the prior seven days, paying an average price of about $87,974 per token. The transaction amounted to roughly $75.3 million and further increased the company’s exposure to Bitcoin. The timing of the purchase, however, coincided with a steep downturn in the broader crypto market. Bitcoin fell below Strategy’s average acquisition cost toward $74,500, adding to investor unease. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? That price sat slightly below Strategy’s reported average purchase price of $76,052 per Bitcoin, raising concerns that the company’s sizable holdings could move underwater if the decline deepens. Market reaction was swift. MSTR fell 8% on Monday as Bitcoin slid below that average cost level. When Bitcoin briefly sank to its lowest point since April 2024, the value of Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings stood at approximately $53.1 billion. A subsequent rebound toward around $79,000 lifted the valuation of the company’s Bitcoin position beyond $55 billion, offering some relief but little clarity on near‑term direction. Worst In The Nasdaq 100 So far, Strategy’s shares have suffered a steep decline. The stock is down 48% in 2025, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100 index. For comparison, the second‑worst stock in the index, Charter Communications, has fallen 39% over the same period, underscoring the scale of Strategy’s underperformance. Amid these challenges, Strategy is also scheduled to release its fourth‑quarter 2025 results on Thursday. Wall Street expectations suggest modest top‑line pressure but a sharp improvement in profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for fourth‑quarter revenue of $119.6 million, representing a 0.91% decline from the same period a year earlier. Earnings, however, are projected at $46.02 per share, unchanged over the past month and a dramatic turnaround from a loss of $3.20 per share reported in the prior‑year quarter. Analysts expect the company’s fourth‑quarter performance to reflect continued financial momentum, driven largely by Bitcoin‑related gains and disciplined capital allocation. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers By the end of January 2026, the firm’s Bitcoin holdings had climbed to approximately 712,647 BTC, up from 640,808 as of Oct. 26, 2025, further increasing its sensitivity to price movements in the digital asset. Still, recent share price performance highlights the risks tied to that strategy. Over the past three months, MSTR has fallen 43.4%, significantly underperforming the broader Finance sector, which gained 4.3% over the same period. The stock has also lagged other Bitcoin‑exposed companies. During that timeframe, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Coinbase Global posted declines of 25.3%, 32.0% and 41.1%, respectively, pointing to widespread weakness among Bitcoin proxy stocks, though none have fallen as sharply as Strategy. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s latest drawdown is being framed less as a technical breakdown and more as a liquidity problem, with Ki Young Ju arguing that the key inputs that sustained the rally fresh capital inflows have stalled. In that setup, he says, calls for a full-cycle, -70% style capitulation hinge on a single variable: whether Strategy turns from buyer to meaningful seller. Will Bitcoin Experience Another -70% Bear Market? In a Feb. 1 post, Ki said “Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in.” He pointed to a flatlining Realized Cap as evidence that incremental money is no longer entering the market, and tied that directly to market structure. “Realized Cap” has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital. When market cap falls in that environment, it’s not a bull market.” His read is that the profit-taking has been there for a while, it was simply absorbed. Early holders, he wrote, were “sitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR buying,” and “have been taking profits since early last year, but strong inflows kept Bitcoin near 100K.” The change now, in his telling, is that the bid that mattered most has faded: “Now those inflows have dried up.” Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Rises Again Amid Bearish Market Dynamics That’s where the crash math changes. Ki described Strategy (MSTR) as “a major driver of this rally,” but argued the reflexive downside seen in prior cycles is unlikely without a decisive reversal from the company’s balance sheet strategy. “Unless Saylor significantly dumps his stack, we won’t see a -70% crash like previous cycles,” he wrote, carving out an explicit condition rather than presenting the drawdown as inevitable. Even so, he didn’t claim the market has found a floor. “Selling pressure is still ongoing, so the bottom isn’t clear yet,” Ki said, adding that the more probable path is time, not a straight-line liquidation. His base case is “a wide-ranging sideways consolidation,” a regime where volatility can persist but direction becomes harder to sustain without new marginal buyers. Stablecoin Liquidity Dries Up CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost added color on what “no fresh capital” looks like in the plumbing. He argued stablecoin activity, often treated as a near-term proxy for deployable crypto liquidity, has rolled over sharply as uncertainty stays elevated. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now “The crypto market is currently going through a delicate phase, marked by a structural lack of liquidity in a context of persistently high uncertainty,” he wrote, calling it an environment “not conducive to risk taking,” especially relative to assets like precious metals and equities that are still drawing flows. Darkfost said the stablecoin market had expanded by more than $140 billion since 2023, but that total stablecoin market capitalization began declining in December, “putting an end to this sustained growth trend.” The more actionable signal, he argued, is exchange flows: “Strong inflows generally indicate a willingness to gain exposure to the market, while outflows instead suggest capital preservation and a reduction in risk.” He highlighted October as the last clear liquidity-heavy month, when “average monthly stablecoin netflows exceeded $9.7B,” with nearly $8.8B concentrated on Binance alone—conditions that “supported Bitcoin’s rally toward a new all time high.” Since November, he said, those inflows have been “largely wiped out,” with an initial $9.6 billion drop, then a brief stabilization, followed by renewed net outflows of more than $4 billion, including $3.1 billion from Binance. At press time, BTC traded at $78,280. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its decline below $78,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $74,500 but faces many hurdles near $80,000. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $77,000 and $78,000. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $77,000 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $82,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $80,000 and $79,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $78,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $76,000. A low was formed at $74,543, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $78,000. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $80,000 level. A close above the $80,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000 and $85,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level. The next support is now near the $76,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,000, followed by $76,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $80,000.
As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday. The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated. They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum. While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart. If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully. A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact. If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Since the recent Bitcoin price crash to $76,000, the broader crypto market has been on high alert, with sentiment shifting to extreme fear levels. A crypto analyst who has shared insights on Bitcoin’s latest market movements predicts more pain for the leading cryptocurrency. He has also warned investors against taking advantage of the decline and buying BTC during this highly volatile and unpredictable period. Analyst Warns Not To Go Long After Bitcoin Price Crash Crypto analyst Tyrex has warned investors against going long on Bitcoin following the recent price crash. Over the weekend, BTC experienced another devastating decline, dropping by more than 14% according to CoinMarketCap. For some investors, this drop may appear as an opportunity to buy the dip and go long on the leading cryptocurrency. However, Tyrex advises against making such a move. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? The analyst stated in an X post on February 1, 2026, that Bitcoin had crashed to a new low around $76,000 on January 31, confirming a bearish breakout. He noted that, based on past market movements in which similar setups occurred, excluding fakeouts, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to stage a full recovery back to $85,000. Instead, he said the price is more likely to keep dumping until it completes its downside move and reaches a price discovery at lower levels. Tyrex cited Bitcoin’s price action in May 2021, May 2022, and June 22, noting that massive price crashes occurred during these periods after similar breaks in market structure. He said Bitcoin failed to recover quickly in each case and actually continued to crash on the daily chart after the main red candle was printed. The analyst’s accompanying Bitcoin chart shows the cryptocurrency trading above $79,000 at the time of his analysis, after it initiated a slight recovery from its previous low near $76,000. He projected on the chart that Bitcoin could soon resume its decline and fall toward the $75,400 region, representing a more than 4.5% decline. Tyrex added that a major support level sits around the $74,000 level on the weekly chart, which could temporarily hold off further downside. According to Tyrex, this level is equivalent to a key support near $2,100 for Ethereum. Related Reading: Analyst Says Chainlink Price Could Crash 50% If This Level Fails Analyst Shares Highly Likely BTC Decline In his analysis, Tyrex stated that, given Bitcoin’s latest price crash, structural weakness, and past cycle trends, he expects the cryptocurrency to retest recent lows once again. Considering his view that a recovery is unlikely, the analyst suggests that the near-term outlook for BTC is predominantly bearish. He noted that the $74,000 support is the main area for potential long positions. However, he expressed caution, noting that this level may not be particularly strong since it is relatively distant on the weekly chart and could be broken if Bitcoin continues its downward trend. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin slid sharply over the weekend, breaking below $76,000 in thin trading and briefly dipping through the $75,000 area as selling accelerated late Saturday into Sunday. The move pushed BTC into a zone that technician Aksel Kibar has identified as a key band of horizontal support, roughly between $73.7K and $76.5K. The move didn’t come in a vacuum. Macro markets were already in a forced-risk-off posture, with a violent sell-off in precious metals feeding broader deleveraging dynamics, exactly the kind of tape that can amplify weekend volatility when liquidity thins out and stop levels get tested. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician and the founder of Tech Charts LLC, said in a series of posts on X that he’s watching the $73.7K and $76.5K closely, but not treating it as an automatic green light for longs. His message to traders: price reaching support is a location, not a signal, and the difference matters most when you’re trying to avoid catching a falling knife. In several posts dated Jan. 30 and Feb. 1 he stated that his process is built around classical chart patterns rather than “guessing” the low. “Reaching a support area is not in itself a classical chart pattern buy signal,” he wrote. “We need to see a bullish reversal chart pattern forming around support areas. But trading tactics differ. You might have a different way to take advantage of the recent price action.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Digital Gold Thesis Faces Reality As Gold Surges Ahead Kibar framed the current range as an area where a bottom could form, but emphasized that his approach is to wait for structure, specifically a reversal formation that changes the odds profile. On Jan. 30 he laid out why he won’t chase a level just because it’s on the map. “I’m not interested to find the support because I’m not trying to catch the falling knife,” he wrote. “I’m interested to find a bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom. A H&S bottom. I will always miss the boat if it is a V reversal.” That trade-off is deliberate, he added, and it’s part of knowing your own constraints: “Important to know your strength and weaknesses.” In a separate post, Kibar linked the “base building” concept to a concrete trigger: a breakout above $91.2K, which he described as the completion point of a double-bottom scenario he had referenced earlier. “When I say we need a base building, some sort of a classical chart pattern (preferably with horizontal boundaries), I’m referring to the breakout above 91.2K (completion of a double bottom),” he wrote, adding that confirmation is “even more crucial because we are below long-term average,” before he can “submit for bullish interpretation.” Kibar’s posts also pushed back on a common psychological trap in bottom-calling: confusing caution with fear. Responding to an X user who suggested he sounded bullish but reluctant to “make a call” to avoid being wrong, Kibar agreed with the setup but sharpened the motive. “Everything correct,” he replied. “Except not I don’t want to be wrong but to have higher conviction. We can’t act in markets with the fear of being wrong.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO That distinction matters because it explains why his framework requires visible evidence of buyers stepping in, rather than a single level holding by default. When another user asked whether Bitcoin could be forming the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar dismissed the timing: “Too early to start thinking about this.” In his most recent update, Kibar described the kinds of behaviors that, in his view, can hint at demand emerging around support. Instead of treating it as a checklist, he framed it as the “signs” that can show buyers are willing to defend the area: a pickup in activity and volatility, candlesticks that show rejection(such as doji-like structures with long lower wicks) and short-term reversal structures like double bottoms or head-and-shoulders bottoms. Kibar also introduced a market-structure point he said he learned while managing a large fund in the United Arab Emirates: “If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers.” He argued that large buyers often need meaningful supply to build size without moving price against themselves, and that heavy selling can sometimes be the condition that allows that accumulation, depending on motives and liquidity. He briefly extended that idea to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), noting he wasn’t sure whether the firm “will be required (from an accounting perspective) to sell any assets,” but adding that, in his words, the market can be a “wild wild west,” where “some buyer out there might be after that chunk at a reasonable price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,713. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a major decline below $80,000. BTC is down over 10% and might soon test the $70,000 support zone. Bitcoin failed to remain above $82,500 and started another decline. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $79,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip further if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $85,000 zone. BTC started a major decline below the $83,200 and $82,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $80,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $78,000. A low was formed at $75,665, and the price is still signaling more downsides. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $79,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $78,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,200 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $75,665 low. A close above the $79,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $75,665 low. The next barrier for the bulls could be $84,000 and $84,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,200 level. The first major support is near the $75,500 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $82,000.
Bitcoin’s price action has fallen into bearish territory after dropping below an important previous low that had supported the rally for months. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,560 after falling to as low as $77,082 in the past 24 hours, a move that crypto analyst XForceGlobal says represents a significant change in the technical structure. According to his detailed Elliott Wave analysis shared on X, the price action has now invalidated the bullish framework many traders were relying on, and lower levels are becoming more likely in the coming weeks and months. Related Reading: Ethereum Boost: Vitalik Buterin Sets Aside $45M In ETH For Privacy And Open Tech Breakdown Below Previous Low Changes Primary Wave Count According to XForceGlobal, Bitcoin had been working through a complex sideways structure, specifically a WXY combination that was expected to resolve through distribution rather than outright breakdown. Bulls managed to complete three of the five required components of this triangle-like structure, but the failure to defend the prior low was the signal that led to a structural shift. This prior low refers to the $82,000 low in November 2025. Bitcoin bulls failed to defend this low when the price action broke below $80,000 in the most recent 24 hours. Once that level gave way, the primary wave count could no longer be maintained. In terms of the Elliott Wave count, that lower low means that price action from the all-time high should now be treated as separated and corrective, not part of a healthy continuation. This restructuring gives the current decline more room to develop from a Fibonacci extension perspective and changes how minimum and maximum downside targets should be evaluated. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @XForceGlobal On X Two Bearish Scenarios Point To The Same Zone The resulting analysis shows two main scenarios of how Bitcoin’s price action can continue from here, both of which are converging on similar downside levels. The first is a flat correction, where Bitcoin is currently unfolding a C wave. Although XForceGlobal describes this as the least attractive option, it would still imply a full distribution range that invalidates a bullish structure and drags the Bitcoin price to as low as $60,000. The second scenario is a macro ending diagonal structured as a WXY move to the downside. This scenario uses the October 2025 all-time high above $126,000 as a cut point to improve wave separation of the current price action. Interestingly, the price projection from this scenario also aligns with targets in the same $60,000 area. Despite different technical paths, both interpretations point to comparable downside risk over the medium timeframe. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Now that the larger structure is now compromised, XForceGlobal says it makes sense to adopt a shorter-timeframe bearish bias while reorganizing the next wave count. The outlook is that Bitcoin continues its decline to at least $60,000 before rebounding to stage a return above $100,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin market experienced a shockingly dramatic weekend, as opposed to the typical silent price action displayed in previous weekends. On Saturday, January 31st, the world’s leading cryptocurrency seemingly led other crypto assets south of the charts, with its price falling from $84,350 to as low as $75,000 in a single swoop. As this unfolded, an inversely correlated shift also played out underneath the charts. A recent on-chain evaluation has pointed out that Bitcoin’s Long-term Holder behavior is changing, contrary to what its short-term holders are doing. Long-Term Holders Accumulate As Short-Term Supply Declines Pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost recently took to CryptoQuant, via a Quicktake post, pointing out that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are racking up more BTC. The relevant indicator here is the LTH supply change (Coinbase fix). Related Reading: Rising Above The Ashes: XRP ETFs Set New Record Despite Market Crash For context, this metric tracks the net change in the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (typically coins unmoved for ~155 days). According to the analyst, approximately 186,000 (on a monthly average) have been added to the Long-term holders’ supply. Seeing as more coins are aging past 155 days, Darkfost implied that short-term holder supply is, in turn, witnessing steady contraction. Notably, the analyst pointed out this kind of transition (between long-term and short-term investors) last happened in April, as the Bitcoin price retraced. As it is intuitively evident, a rising LTH supply is typically interpreted as growing conviction among Bitcoin’s long-term investors. By extension, this means that long-term holders are distributing less of their holdings and stowing away more. In theory, this behavior is bullish news for the cryptocurrency. This is because, as LTHs absorb supply, the amount of available Bitcoin for sale reduces. Historically, it is also a bullish signal for the BTC price, as it has often appeared during the early stages of accumulation periods or late into correction stages. However, the broader market implications in the current context might not be so favorable. Darkfost highlighted that there is very weak demand available to cushion the falling BTC price. At the same time, the Bitcoin market appears to be entering a bearish phase; hence, it is not far-fetched to see major capitulation events in the near-term. If this happens, the Bitcoin price would likely plummet, as weaker investors may sell off their holdings in fear or as victims of liquidation events. For a bullish outlook to be truly relevant, there has to be a clear recovery in demand, alongside continued long-term holder accumulation. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of press time, the Bitcoin price stands at approximately $78,060, reflecting a 6.9% loss in the past day. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has once again fallen below a critical support zone, raising questions about whether the market is gearing up for a deeper sell-off. With selling pressure still intact, traders are now watching key levels closely to see if a final flush toward lower support is imminent. Price Faces Another Rejection MakroVision Research shared on X that Bitcoin has once again met strong rejection, resulting in a decisive break below several key support levels. Price has now slipped back into the range of the previous low and continues to trade beneath the critical green resistance zone between $85,200 and $86,200, highlighting that bearish pressure remains in control for now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns On the very short-term timeframe, there are early signs of an attempted rebound, but without a timely and sustainable reclaim of the $85,200–$86,200 zone, this move is best viewed as a technical counter-bounce rather than the start of a meaningful trend reversal. As long as the price remains capped below this area, the broader short-term downtrend remains intact. From a tactical perspective, the $85,200–$86,200 region has become the key battlefield. A clean reclaim and hold above this zone would be the first clear indication that selling pressure is beginning to fade, potentially allowing for price stabilization and a relief rally. If this reclaim attempt fails, the risk of continued downside acceleration increases. In that case, focus would turn to the $72,300–$75,300 range, a technically prominent support zone with historical significance. This zone may ultimately serve as a potential support and reversal region should the market experience another phase of capitulation. CME Gap Opens: What To Expect From Bitcoin This Weekend Crypto analyst MartyParty, in a recent Bitcoin Wyckoff Accumulation update, highlighted that a CME gap is opening, which is expected to be filled by Sunday evening. This sets the stage for potential short-term volatility, with traders closely watching key technical levels and liquidation activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Backs Off Resistance — Breakdown Or Brief Pause? Several scenarios are possible over the coming days. One possibility is the continued liquidation of remaining leveraged longs, with the lowest 25x Binance liquidation currently around $79,350, potentially completing the classic Wyckoff Spring pattern. Another scenario is a retest of secondary support at $81,800, which could act as a temporary floor for Bitcoin’s price action. If support at $81,800 holds, Bitcoin may trade sideways or attempt to push toward the primary support level, which has now turned into resistance at $84,800. The most probable scenario suggests a move up through $84,500 toward $86,463, followed by a retest of $84,500 on Sunday night as the CME gap is filled, completing the near-term Wyckoff accumulation setup. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Maelius has alluded to Bitcoin’s historical performance to provide insights into how low the flagship crypto could drop before it reaches a bottom. He also alluded to the BTC.d, which he explained shows that BTC has yet to reach a bottom. How Low Can Bitcoin Drop Before Finding A Bottom In an X post, Maelius shared a chart indicating that Bitcoin could still drop below $60,000 before it finds a bottom. The analyst also highlighted the BTC dominance (BTC.d), which he noted usually crashes after the flagship crypto has topped, but that has not yet happened. He alluded to the 2017 and 2021 cycles, noting that they saw massive sell-offs and a bottom in BTC.d shortly after Bitcoin topped. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Says The Bitcoin Cycle Is Already Over, Here’s Why Based on his comments, Maelius also raised the possibility that Bitcoin may not have topped, which is why the BTC.d isn’t crashing yet. He remarked that fractal analysts say BTC has topped, but questioned why BTC.d hasn’t had a proper sell-off yet and is only just positioned to have one relatively soon. The analyst stated that one could argue Bitcoin hasn’t topped yet and that it’s still possible the flagship crypto could run toward previous highs, even as BTC.d still has to crash. He added that BTC.d had never been this high or looked this bearish when BTC was already in a bear market. In an earlier X post, the analyst stated that BTC was trying to confuse both sides. However, he remarked that higher prices are inevitable and will come soon enough, as the structure remains bullish, and that, until proven otherwise, bears cannot do anything about it. Until then, he urged market participants not to give up on their holdings by selling them at a discount. Analyst Reiterates That BTC Has Topped Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has reiterated that Bitcoin has topped, noting that VTC has always topped in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. He suggested that the focus now should be on getting through this bear market, which he believes will last until the end of this year. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals How Far Bitcoin Price Will Crash If The Uptrend Doesn’t Continue He then alluded to a previous outline he had made on how things could play out for Bitcoin up until 2042. Cowen believes accumulation will occur between 2027 and 2028, which will then usher in the uptrend between 2029 and 2030. He predicted that BTC could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2032, before another bear market between 2033 and 2034. The analyst predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million between 2040 and 2042 after the next bear market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,900, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
After surging toward the $100,000 mark a few days into the new year, the price of Bitcoin looks set to end January in stark contrast to how it started the month. On Thursday, January 29, the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a multi-month low of around $81,500, with the general market sentiment worsening over the past few weeks. Going into the weekend, the price of Bitcoin has somewhat cooled off, recovering above the $93,000 level on Friday, January 30. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader is only on the verge of another violent price movement. BTC Setting Up For A Violent Liquidation Cascade In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain shared insights into the current on-chain condition of the Bitcoin price. According to the market quant, the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) witnessed a notable upswing on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, while price was undergoing its most recent correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Needs Deeper Liquidity Before A Real Recovery Takes Shape: Analysts For context, the Estimated Leverage Ratio is an on-chain metric that tracks the ratio between open interest and the reserve of an exchange (Binance, in this case). This metric measures the average amount of leverage used by the traders in a particular market or exchange. A higher ELR signals a higher market risk, suggesting that small price movements could lead to significant liquidations. According to data from CryptoQuant, CryptoOnchain highlighted that the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio recently spiked to a critical level of 0.188 when the price fell to around $81,500, indicating that the Open Interest is exceptionally high relative to the exchange’s reserves. Furthermore, CryptoOnchain shared that the divergence between rising leverage and falling prices is a classic “bearish divergence” signal in the derivative market. “It indicates that despite the price weakness, traders are aggressively increasing their leverage positions,” the on-chain expert added. What’s more, CryptoOnchain revealed that when the market becomes heavily over-leveraged during a price correction, it implies that the traders are either “buying the dip” with high leverage or increasingly taking short positions. The market quant said this setup usually precedes a “violent liquidation cascade.” Overall, CryptoOnchain concluded that the market is currently in a high-tension zone, with the combination of peak leverage and low prices suggesting that a “squeeze” is imminent. The analyst, however, clarified that the direction of the next violent movement depends on the dominant side (bulls or bears) of the market. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $84,200, reflecting a nearly 1% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Still Trading Sideways Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
After bouncing 2.6% from recent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has been attempting to turn the $82,000-$83,000 area into support. Some analysts have warned that the cryptocurrency must hold the crucial macro support levels or it will “confirm bearish acceleration.” Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Below $2,800 As Crypto Liquidations Near $1B – Should Investors Worry? Bitcoin To Drop 76% From its Peak On Thursday, Bitcoin crashed alongside the rest of the market, retracing nearly 9% in a day toward the $81,314 area. BTC had been trading between $86,000-$93,500 since early November, closing above the lower boundary of its two-month range in the weekly timeframe despite constant volatility. At the moment, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost this key support in the daily timeframe and risks a deeper correction if the price doesn’t recover the $86,000 level before the end of the week. As the price hovers between levels not seen since the late November correction, a market observer has warned that the leading cryptocurrency has lost its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support. Ted Pillows asserted that the last two times Bitcoin had a weekly close below the 100-week EMA, back in 2018 and 2022, it dropped 50% in just 4-6 weeks. Moreover, he highlighted BTC’s historical pattern, noting that the cryptocurrency has repeated a similar performance between the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles. The chart shows an eight-year ascending trendline that has marked the top of the previous cycles. The trendline began during the late 2017 peak and continued into the next bull market, marking the 2021 cycle top too. Notably, the 2018 bear market correction saw Bitcoin retrace 83.11% from the ascending trendline, while the 2022 pullback had BTC dropping 77.57% from the cycle top. Per the chart, this has formed a rising support line that has marked where BTC’s price bottomed during previous bear markets. Now, Bitcoin has seemingly topped around the trendline once again and could retrace up to 76.88% toward the $30,000 mark in 2026, if history repeats. BTC Retests Macro Triangle Bottom Analyst Rekt Capital also shared his perspective on BTC’s recent pullback now that it has broken down from its weekly price range and is revisiting the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, similar to its 2021 triangle formation that preceded the previous bear market. Per the analysis, the flagship crypto has shown a nearly identical price action to its 2021-2022 performance, with the price respecting the macro support and descending resistance. A breakdown from the macro triangle bottom “would confirm Bearish Acceleration,” he noted, adding that for bull market continuation, the cryptocurrency would need to break and hold above the macro descending resistance on longer timeframes. “Until then, we have more evidence that maybe we will be following 2021 [performance]. (…) It’s just a little bit more compressed.” He also pointed out that BTC is displaying a similar Bull Market EMAs crossover that occurred during the early stages of the previous bear market. Related Reading: Analysts Say Dogecoin Consolidation Is About To End – Parabolic Run Or Crash Ahead? Rekt Capital highlighted that the imminent crossover does not necessarily predict additional downside, but “is effectively confirming weakness, kind of responding to the weakness that we are already seeing and have seen for a while.” “History is suggesting to us that if we continue to make these macro lower highs, which are a result of weakening demand at historical support regions, then there’s more reason to be bearish rather than bullish,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s sharp slide to $81,119 on January 30 came with a derivatives-market gut punch: forced long closures spiked to extreme levels, yet perpetual funding stayed decisively positive. That mix is complicating a common read, whether the market has already “cleansed” leverage or is still set up for repeat liquidation waves. Is The Bitcoin Deleveraging Over? On-Chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., in his Morning Brief, pointed to a “cascade of forced closures” over the past 24 hours, with long liquidations dominating the tape. His liquidation dominance oscillator tracking the balance of long versus short liquidations, printed roughly 97%, while the 30-day moving average rose to 31.4%. In plain market-structure terms, that says deleveraging pressure has been heavily one-sided, not just on the day but as a sustained pattern through the last month. The reason traders watch extremes like this is the tendency for liquidation flows to cluster and then fade, creating room for near-term stabilization. Adler framed that dynamic cautiously, stressing that an “extreme” reading is not the same thing as confirmation that sellers are done. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO “Oscillator extremes often coincide with the culmination of forced selling and can lead to short-term stabilization. However, this is not a reversal signal without confirmations — for a sustainable ‘local bottom’ scenario, it is important to see at least normalization of the oscillator to zero or a decline in the 30-day average.” That sets the first condition for calling the deleveraging cycle “over”: the liquidation imbalance has to cool, rather than simply peak. The bigger tension in Adler’s read is that even after the washout in price and the liquidation cascade, funding remained positive: 43.2% annualized on the day, by his figures. While that’s well below the 100%+ annualized levels seen during October–November peaks, it still implies a market paying to stay long rather than getting paid to short. Funding doesn’t just reflect sentiment; it reflects positioning pressure. If funding refuses to flip despite a selloff, it can mean longs are rebuilding exposure quickly, or that the market never fully unwound bullish leverage in the first place. Adler’s conclusion is that the latter risk is still on the table. “Positive Funding amid massive liquidations increases the risk of repeated deleveraging: this means the market is recovering long positioning quickly enough or is not ready to fully unwind it. Complete ‘derivatives capitulation’ is often accompanied by Funding transitioning to neutral or negative territory — this has not happened yet.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back In other words, the liquidation event may have been violent, but the incentives embedded in perps are still leaning toward long demand. That matters because it keeps the same fragility in place: a fresh downside impulse can turn newly reloaded longs into liquidation fuel again. Adler summed up the combined signal from the two charts as a washout that may be intense, but not necessarily final. “Together, the two charts paint a picture of likely incomplete deleveraging: liquidations hit longs extremely hard, but overall positioning remains tilted bullish. The liquidation cascade (long dominance ~97%) is a symptom of market overload with long positions, but not necessarily final cleansing. Persistently positive Funding (43% annualized) may indicate that demand for long exposure is not broken, and the deleveraging process is not complete.” Until those confirmations show up, the base case in his briefing is less “final capitulation” and more “incomplete deleveraging”, a market that has already flushed leverage once, but may not be done if long appetite stays intact through drawdowns. At press time, BTC traded at $82,968. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Gold and silver have recently dominated headlines, outperforming both Bitcoin and altcoins in the broader crypto market. While both precious metals recorded new all-time highs in 2026, many altcoins failed to reach similar milestones. Bitcoin, by contrast, did achieve an ATH in 2025; however, following that peak, its price retraced sharply to new lows. With this in mind, analysts argue that the strength of gold and silver does not pose a threat to digital assets. Instead, they interpret the divergence as a major bullish signal for Bitcoin and altcoins. Gold And Silver ATH Signals Bitcoin And Altcoins Upside Crypto market expert Mark Chadwick delivered a detailed analysis of precious metals and cryptocurrencies on X this week, pointing to what he calls “the biggest price divergence” ever recorded between gold and Bitcoin. His chart and analysis suggest that a strong performance in gold could be a major indicator for a potential rally in cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Continue To Decline If This Doesn’t Happen; Analyst Chadwick noted that gold has surged aggressively, reaching an ATH of over $5,600 in January 2026. This price rally has pushed the metal into extreme overbought levels on higher timeframes. In contrast, Bitcoin is facing prolonged weakness and negative sentiment in 2026, despite reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. The analyst suggested that this performance imbalance has reached levels that typically signal a major market shift. Gold and silver have been boosted by factors such as central bank accumulation, inflation hedging, and geopolitical pressures. At the same time, Bitcoin has been weighed down by tighter liquidity, reduced investor interest, and risk-off conditions. As a result, traditional safe-haven assets have entered overbought territory, leaving BTC and altcoins largely overlooked. Chadwick argues that markets move in cycles driven by sentiment and positioning. When one asset becomes excessively overbought, returns diminish, and capital seeks higher upside elsewhere. In past macro cycles, periods of strong performance in gold and silver have often been followed by capital rotating into higher-risk assets once fear subsides. Based on his analysis, Bitcoin’s current positioning reflects exhaustion rather than structural weakness. Chadwick believes that when manipulation ends and capital starts flowing out of gold and silver into BTC, it could set the stage for a sharp rebound in the leading cryptocurrency. Since altcoins typically follow Bitcoin’s performance, the analyst expects that once Bitcoin regains momentum, some of that profit could also rotate into select altcoins, fueling a price rally. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? How High Bitcoin And Altcoins Could Rally Chadwick has stated that Bitcoin’s price could easily surge 10x as capital flows back into it and market sentiment and liquidity improve. However, the chart outlines a short-term rally, projecting a 91.60% rise to $170,000 from the $82,000 region. The analyst also predicted that altcoins could rise 50-100x, reflecting a staggering potential for gains in the crypto market. He concluded his analysis by emphasizing that smart money knows massive returns often come from diversification. From this perspective, the current ATHs of gold and silver do not undermine cryptocurrencies but signal an upcoming shift in capital. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin was designed to function as digital gold, a decentralised store of value that protects wealth from inflation, currency debasement, and the long-term dominance of the dollar. Currently, the market behaviour is telling a different story as de-dollarisation accelerates and investors seek safety from geopolitical risk and inflation pressures, with gold capturing the bulk of that capital. Is Bitcoin Still A Store Of Value Or A Risk Asset? Crypto investor Himanshu Sinha has stated on X that Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold because it was built for de-dollarisation, but gold and silver are winning the trade and fulfilling that role. Over the past year, gold has risen by roughly 55%, silver has surged around 150%, while BTC has remained flat. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down The Central banks are the drivers; they don’t want volatility that they can’t manage, and they don’t want an asset that moves in lockstep with the Nasdaq. Instead, they want a controllable monetary infrastructure, and they’re buying gold at the highest rate in history. Just hours ago, gold hit $5,600, then collapsed by 8.21% in a straight vertical drop to $5,140, which is a textbook margin liquidation. At the same time, Microsoft dropped 11.7% as tech sold their gold because it was their only profitable asset, and the investors needed cash fast. This is the same liquidity contagion that used to be seen in the crypto market. According to Sinha, gold cannot be sanctioned in a bar. As the West weaponizes the dollar through sanctions and financial controls, the rest of the world needs a neutral exit. In the end, BTC still proved it is a speculative tool, while gold is proving to be the replacement. Why Gold Is Likely To Keep Outperforming Bitcoin A crypto trader known as Doctor Profit pointed out that nearly a year ago, he shared a Gold versus Bitcoin chart, highlighting that once 0.02 BTC equals 1 ounce of gold, it should mark the top for BTC. Meanwhile, when 0.11 BTC equals 1 ounce of gold, it marks the bottom for BTC. This happened in 2021 during the BTC top and during the BTC bottom in 2022. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels According to Doctor Profit, the analysis was later proven right this year by calling the BTC top at $125,000 at 0.02 for 1 ounce of gold. Calculating this move, if 1 BTC is $5,500 in gold price and divided by 0.11, it should be $50,000 BTC, which matches the analysis of BTC bottom for this cycle between $50,000 and $60,000 BTC. However, the analysis played out as expected. If calculated with a gold price of $7,000, the equivalent of BTC bottom should be around $63,000, which also aligns with the bottom target. In the Doctor Profit view, gold might continue to outperform BTC in the coming months. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
While gold has posted major gains, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show major signs of weakness, with prices drifting toward lower support levels and now approaching the closely watched $82,000 mark, a pivotal point in determining the next major direction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Against this backdrop, market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn attention to what he describes as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: the Gold‑to‑Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio. What The Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio Suggests According to Profit, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for major market tops and bottoms. He noted that he first shared this framework nearly a year ago, highlighting a historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold, and bottom when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Toward $85,000 Despite Progress On US Crypto Market Structure Bill Profit pointed out that this relationship played out during the previous cycle, accurately marking Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. He argues that the same pattern has repeated in the current cycle, claiming Bitcoin’s recent top near $125,000 when the gold‑to‑Bitcoin ratio once again reached the 0.02 level. The key question now, he says, is whether the market will again reach the 0.11 BTC‑per‑ounce level that has historically signaled a bottom. Based on current prices, Profit walked through the math. Assuming a gold price of roughly $5,500 per ounce, dividing that figure by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin price near $50,000. That outcome, he noted, aligns with his broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low could fall somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000. He added that even under a more bullish scenario for gold, the analysis still supports his thesis. If gold were to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the same ratio would imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In his view, both scenarios reinforce the idea that gold is likely to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. BTC Nearing Late‑Cycle Bear Phase? Not all analysts, however, share that bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst Michael van de Poppe suggested that gold’s recent strength could be nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin. Van de Poppe highlighted the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin measured against gold on the weekly timeframe, noting that it has reached the lowest level ever recorded. In his assessment, this suggests a sharp imbalance in valuations, with one asset appearing overextended in the short term and the other deeply undervalued. He described the situation as part of what he calls the “big rotation” phase of the market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns The analyst also pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score indicator, a metric used to assess whether the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility. According to van de Poppe, the current Z‑Score for Bitcoin is lower than it was at several major historical bottoms, including those seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID‑19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low. In his view, this signals that BTC is already deep into a bear‑market phase and may be approaching its final stages. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $83,435, with losses of 2.2% and 7% recorded in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com