Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the $82,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase if it clears $82,000. Bitcoin failed to stay above $81,500 and extended losses. The price is trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a key contracting triangle forming with support at $80,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $81,800 and $82,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to clear the $82,000 resistance zone. BTC started a downside correction below the $81,500 and $81,200 levels to enter a short-term bearish zone. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $80,421 swing low to the $82,100 high. However, the bulls were active above $80,500. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with support at $80,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $80,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $81,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $81,800 level. A close above the $81,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,250 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $82,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $83,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $81,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,800 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $80,421 swing low to the $82,100 high. The first major support is near the $80,400 level. The next support is now near the $79,400 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $79,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $78,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,800, followed by $80,400. Major Resistance Levels – $81,800 and $82,000.
The latest Bitcoin (BTC) rally is already showing signs of losing momentum, and several analysts warn that a larger correction may be closer. AlejandroBTC—posting on X (formerly Twitter)—called the current price behavior “a dead cat bounce,” suggesting the recent rebound may be near its end and that Bitcoin could be set up for a much deeper drop. Bear Market Still In Play? In AlejandroBTC’s “most optimistic” framing, the move above $82,000 could have actually marked the top for the cryptocurrency. If that scenario plays out, he warned it could trigger a major downturn. His estimate points to a potential 50% decline toward the $40,000 region. In his view, that area would not just be another dip, but potentially where a more durable “solid base” could form—effectively implying a market bottom could be built from there rather than continuing to spiral lower. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Set To Hit $5 Amid New Influx From Smart Money? Another analyst, CryptoCon, offered a different way of thinking about where Bitcoin might be in its cycle. CryptoCon cited the average timeline for past bear markets, saying that based on the historical average of 391 days, the current bear market is estimated to be 55% complete. According to his calculation, the market is 216 days into the cycle. He added that the lowest drawdown point so far is around -52%, which he described as about 25% higher than the previous cycle’s low. Put plainly, CryptoCon argues that, if history is the guide, Bitcoin may not yet be near the typical drawdown levels many past bear markets eventually reached—and that means there’s still room for additional downside before the “usual” worst-case territory appears. Why This Week Could Mark ‘The Top For Bitcoin’ That bearish case was echoed by market expert CryptoRover, who suggested that this week “might be the top for Bitcoin.” Rover’s point was not only about current price behavior, but also about historical repetition. He pointed to examples from past years: the pattern played out in 2014, leading to a 65% crash; in 2018, leading to a 64% crash; and in 2022, leading to a 52% crash. Based on that track record, Rover implied there are reasons to think something similar could occur again. To support his view that risk may be rising as the cycle matures, CryptoRover also outlined three catalysts he says could contribute to downside if they align with the current timing. The first is an open interest (OI) spike. He said Bitcoin recorded the largest monthly OI spike of 2026, and that the same pattern appeared in altcoins as traders try to chase the latest momentum. In his framework, when OI rises this quickly, it can often be followed by a liquidation cascade—especially if prices reverse and heavily leveraged positions get forced out. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Breakout Setup Strengthens As Bulls Regain Full Control The second factor is the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair being confirmed this week. Rover claimed that every time a new Fed chair has been confirmed, Bitcoin has tended to drop. The third factor is stock euphoria. CryptoRover said equities have been “absolutely parabolic” recently and that a cooldown is likely. He pointed out that when stocks hit new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins stayed well below their own highs. He concluded that if stocks undergo a correction, crypto—still lagging compared to the sector’s performance—could face increased pressure. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A crypto analyst has laid out a bold Bitcoin price forecast for the next three years, predicting an ultimate target above $200,000 by 2028. In the analysis, he outlines several key catalysts expected to drive BTC toward these projected milestones each year. These catalysts include a range of driving forces such as macroeconomic shifts, institutional accumulation, and even an anticipated AI-driven economic boom. Bitcoin Price Forecast For 2026 And 2027 DANNY, a crypto analyst, has shared his Bitcoin price outlook from 2026 to 2028, outlining a bullish roadmap to a price peak above $280,000. However, before that peak materializes, he projects a significantly more bearish near-term picture for Bitcoin in 2026. Contrary to the widespread speculation that Bitcoin may have entered a new bull trend and is on its way to new all-time highs, DANNY predicts that BTC’s price could still crash meaningfully from current levels. He expects Bitcoin to drop down to $52,000, representing a more than 35% decline from its current price above $80,500. This figure would also push BTC well below its post-ATH support floor of $60,000, the lowest level it has traded at since rising above $126,000 in October 2025. Related Reading: Bollinger Bands Creator Has Just Gone All In On Bitcoin, Is $100,000 Next? Notably, DANNY has outlined several macroeconomic catalysts he believes will drive this projected correction. First, he points to the S&P 500 declining toward the 5,800 level, which could weigh on risk sentiment broadly and likely drag crypto markets lower alongside equities. He also believes oil prices will remain elevated, staying above $110 a barrel for at least two quarters before any meaningful retreat. Furthermore, DANNY predicts that the first G7 nation could officially enter a major technical recession during this period, a development that could also fuel risk-off sentiment and widespread selling pressure in the crypto and traditional markets. Lastly, for 2026, the analyst projects that a Federal Reserve Chair transition could trigger the most volatile quarter in the crypto and financial sectors in a decade. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to step down after serving two four-year terms, with Kevin Warsh succeeding the position, nominated by US President Donald Trump. Moving on to his 2027 forecast, DANNY did not project any specific price target for the year. Instead, he outlined a series of macroeconomic shifts he believes will quietly lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s potential surge above $280,000. Firstly, he predicts that a Fed pivot, with three rate cuts in 12 months, could happen. Additionally, he expects Bitcoin to reach a true market bottom in Q1 2027 and then double its price by Q4. On the currency front, DANNY projects that the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency will become a mainstream media talking point in 2027. He also projects that real estate will crash in at least two major US cities. Finally, he said that people who bought BTC during his projected 2026 crash will go completely silent on social media, suggesting quiet accumulation. Bitcoin’s Bullish Roadmap Above $280,000 In 2028 According to DANNY, 2028 is set to become Bitcoin’s most historic year yet. He projects an explosive price surge above $280,000, representing an increase of more than 120% from BTC’s current ATH above $126,000. By this year, the analyst expects a few key things to happen. He predicts that the S&P 500 will begin rallying explosively, reaching a high of 9,500. Related Reading: If The Bitcoin Price Crosses $400,000, Will The Solana Price Reach $1,500? The analyst also projects that the Fed balance sheet could hit $12 trillion, suggesting a return to large-scale quantitative easing and a fresh flood of liquidity into the market. At the same time, he anticipates a major AI boom that may begin to show up in actual GDP numbers. Finally, he predicts that the investors who bought BTC in 2026 and went silent in 2027 will become the new 2017 Bitcoin legends. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A chart shared on May 7, 2026, by analyst @CryptoTice highlights a technical formation that mirrors the setup seen ahead of Bitcoin’s surge from roughly $17,000 to $69,000. According to the analysis, the same structural signals have appeared again on the long-term chart, raising expectations that the market could be preparing for another major rally. Bitcoin Rally Structure: ATH Break Then Retest The 2020 market cycle began when Bitcoin finally moved above its previous ATH after spending a long period trading sideways in an accumulation phase. However, the move did not immediately turn into a sustained rally. Instead, Bitcoin paused and began trading within a horizontal range close to the breakout level, forming a consolidation zone where significant trading activity took place. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts When The XRP Price Will Rally To $12 The chart shared by analyst CryptoTice shows that Bitcoin is forming a very similar structure in the current cycle. Just as in the earlier period, Bitcoin has already pushed beyond a previous ATH before settling into a comparable horizontal range. In both cycles, the breakout was followed by a period when the price slowed, and Bitcoin traded around the former resistance area. Instead of breaking down further, Bitcoin found support there and began stabilizing. This movement confirmed that the level that once acted as resistance had now turned into support, resulting in a retest of the former all-time high zone. The current chart indicates that the same retest pattern may be developing again. After reaching a new peak, Bitcoin has started moving back toward the breakout area once more. According to the analyst, this pullback represents the current retest phase of the cycle, closely matching the stage that appeared just before Bitcoin’s previous 400% rally. Bitcoin Rally Comparison: From Retest To Expansion After the retest held during the previous cycle, Bitcoin began moving upward again. Momentum gradually built until the market entered a strong expansion phase, eventually pushing Bitcoin from about $17,000 to $69,000. The chart indicates the current market may be approaching the same stage. In the earlier cycle, the rally began after Bitcoin successfully held the retest level. The present structure appears similar, with the green band on the chart marking the key support area analysts are monitoring to see if the pattern remains intact. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Top $320,000 After ‘Cleanest Signal’ Emerged Current market data provides additional context. Bitcoin is trading near $80,667, with a market capitalization of about $1.61 trillion and a circulating supply close to 20 million BTC. Although the market is significantly larger than it was during the previous cycle, the long-term price structure still resembles the earlier formation. The analyst’s chart also includes a projected path reflecting the same sequence seen before: a breakout above the previous high, a retest of that level, and then a sustained rally. Overall, the chart suggests Bitcoin may be repeating the structure that previously led to a 400% rally, with the ongoing retest potentially serving as the launch point for the next major leg up. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, putting a historically bullish technical signal back in focus. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, who posts as CarpeNoctom, shared a chart on X tracking BTC’s forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015. “BTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,” CarpeNoctom wrote, alongside a TradingView chart showing the latest breakout dated May 6, 2026. What This Means For Bitcoin Price The historical table attached to the chart shows a notably positive skew across completed signals. After prior daily Kumo breakouts, Bitcoin was higher one week later in 22 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 6.21% and a median gain of 5.08%. One month out, BTC was positive in 20 of 26 cases, with an average return of 14.05% and a median of 12.00%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Bag Profit: 3,400 BTC Flow Out Of Reserves Since April The signal’s stronger historical profile appears over longer windows. Three months after breakout, Bitcoin was higher in 18 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 39.48% and a median of 26.37%. Six months later, BTC was positive in 22 of 26 cases, with an average return of 74.36% and a median of 46.04%. The one-year data is even more striking: across completed samples, Bitcoin was higher in 22 of 25 cases, with an average gain of 186.01% and a median gain of 129.46%. The largest one-year forward returns came during major bull-market phases. Breakouts on Sept. 4, 2016 and Oct. 7, 2016 preceded one-year gains of 615.08% and 617.09%, respectively. The April 1, 2017 signal was followed by a 525.35% one-year advance, while the April 23, 2020 breakout led to a 581.82% one-year gain. Another October 2020 breakout produced a 237.35% three-month move, a 430.84% six-month move, and a 393.65% one-year return. The chart also shows that the signal has not been uniformly reliable. Breakouts during weaker or late-cycle conditions produced negative forward returns in several cases. The Aug. 13, 2021 breakout was followed by a 48.89% one-year decline, while the Oct. 1, 2021 signal preceded a 59.90% one-year drop. More recently, the April 22, 2025 breakout showed positive returns over one week, one month, three months, and six months, but was down 16.31% after one year. Related Reading: This 1 Chart Explains Why Bitcoin Is Winning And Ethereum Is Losing Right Now The most recent completed signal before the May 2026 breakout, dated Oct. 1, 2025, also remains a cautionary data point. Bitcoin rose 3.98% after one week, but fell 7.60% after one month, 25.46% after three months, and 43.74% after six months. Its one-year return is not yet available in the table. For traders, the chart frames the Kumo breakout less as a standalone prediction and more as a historically asymmetric trend signal. The median returns suggest the pattern has often appeared near meaningful upside continuation, but the failed signals cluster around periods where broader market structure deteriorated after the breakout. At press time, BTC traded at $80,735. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $81,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $82,450 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $79,200 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $80,750 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $80,800 and $80,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Turns Positive Bitcoin price found support near $79,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $79,750 and $80,200 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $82,000. A high was formed at $82,436, and the price started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79,168 swing low to the $82,436 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,750 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $80,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $82,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $82,450 level. A close above the $82,450 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $83,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $82,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,800 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $80,400 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $79,168 swing low to the $82,436 high. The next support is now near the $79,950 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $79,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $78,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,800, followed by $80,000. Major Resistance Levels – $82,000 and $82,450.
Bitcoin is seeing an explosive rise in Open Interest, with derivatives activity now surpassing peak session levels recorded during the 2025 all-time high. This explosive growth reflects rising trader participation and increased leverage that is often seen during periods of heightened anticipation for major price moves. As positions rise across futures and perpetual markets, the spike in open interest points to a market gearing up for volatility. Can Bitcoin Sustain Momentum With Leverage Rising This Fast? Bitcoin is experiencing its strongest Open Interest expansion of 2026, with derivatives actively now surpassing even 2025’s all-time highs. A verified CryptoQuant author, known as Darkfost on X, has noted that the BTC market remains heavily driven by futures. Data shows that BTC’s recent bullish momentum has been driven largely by a steady return of investors to the derivatives markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock: 100,000 BTC Vanish From Exchanges In Under 90 Days Despite funding rates remaining broadly negative for weeks, open interest has recorded its strongest increase since the beginning of 2026. What makes the move particularly notable is that the current increase in open interest is already larger than the expansion seen during BTC’s previous ATH formation. Major platforms like Binance continue to dominate the majority of capital in the segment, reportedly accounting for approximately 34% of total market share, with a monthly average surging to around $2.5 billion on May 5. Meanwhile, a similar trend is also visible across other exchanges, such as Gate.io, which has a record of $1.75 billion, and Bybit, with a record of $1.15 billion. According to Darkfost, comparing the more defensive market conditions seen earlier in the year, the latest data shows optimism is gradually returning to the market, encouraging traders to increase their risk exposure. The growing dependence on leverage also introduces fragility into the market structure. Thus, leveraged positions are rarely built to last longer, and their liquidation could significantly amplify volatility and the risks associated with the market. Why Holding Above Current Levels Is Critical For Bitcoin Bulls The Bitcoin price is currently in a critical retest phase after successfully breaking above the previous highs earlier this week. A crypto trader known as Max Trades on X noted that this level is acting as a key support zone, and holding above it is essential for buyers to sustain momentum and push the broader uptrend price higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Need One More Signal To Confirm Market Bottom – Details As long as BTC maintains support above the reclaimed range, the likelihood of a liquidity sweep toward the $82,800 highs will continue to increase. However, a breakdown back below the retest zone would weaken the bullish structure and likely shift market focus toward the next major liquidity area between the $75,000 and $76,000 zone. This region remains one of the most significant liquidity downside targets if support fails. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price recovery is not a new beginning: it is a familiar ending. That is the warning from a crypto analyst, who is of the notion that the current Bitcoin price action is playing out a bull trap the market has seen before and that the setup is pointing to a destination that sees the cryptocurrency crashing by almost 50% from current price levels. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Historic Rally Signal, Fueling $12 Price Speculation Bitcoin Mirrors Key Stepping Stones From 2022 Bear Cycle Chiefy’s analysis centers on a structural comparison between Bitcoin’s current price sequence and the step-by-step decline that defined the 2022 bear market. The framework identifies a pattern of bear cycle stepping stones, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows dressed up as recoveries on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart. This analysis is in reference to Bitcoin’s price action since it broke above $82,000 earlier in the week. Bitcoin is pressing into the 1-day 200 moving average, a zone that has already acted as resistance during a previous failed recovery attempt in January 2026. The analyst also pointed to the 1-week 200 moving average at the lower support region and the 1-month 350 moving average below it, suggesting that a breakdown could force BTC through multiple long-term trend levels before finding a stronger base. This is exactly like the 2022 bear market. In the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin did not fall in a straight line. It produced relief rallies that looked convincing enough to pull traders back in, only for the price to roll over again. Based on this view, the current rebound to the $80,000 range is not the start of a lasting breakout. It is the largest bull trap of the cycle. His projected path after the bull trap will see Bitcoin leave $82,000 and then go on a free fall to $50,000, then recover to $63,000, and finally crash to $42,000 again. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X Why This Rally Cannot Be Trusted The next move in the sequence, a crash to $50,000, would represent a decline of approximately 39% from current levels. The subsequent bounce to $63,000 would restore confidence briefly before the final descent to $42,000 completes the pattern. This final descent will translate to an almost 50% crash from current levels. Interestingly, CryptoQuant researchers warned that Bitcoin’s apparent demand metric, which tracks 30-day changes in estimated on-chain spot buying activity, stayed negative throughout April’s entire price rally. This shows that the late April and early May move that took Bitcoin to $80,000 was mostly due to higher perpetual futures demand, which is exactly like 2022’s bear market onset. Related Reading: Altcoins Aren’t Going Anywhere — Even After Brutal Crashes: Arthur Hayes The crash warning is also coming at a time when Bitcoin ETF flows are no longer offering a clean bullish background, as they have now posted consistent net outflows of a total of $423.15 million in the past two days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,367. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has been relatively stable since the start of April, showing strong efforts to reclaim former highs. In its latest recovery attempt, the premier cryptocurrency finally returned above $80,000 for the first time since early February. Unsurprisingly, a relevant group of network participants, known as Bitcoin miners, appears to be taking advantage of the steady rise in BTC’s value over the past few weeks. Interestingly, a continuation of this profit-taking trend could pose an obstacle to the market leader’s recovery. Miners’ Profit-Taking Could Halt BTC’s Recovery In a May 8th post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared that Bitcoin miners’ behavior has shifted in recent weeks. The latest on-chain data shows that this group of network participants has been booking profits, as the price of BTC steadily climbed to a local high. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Top $320,000 After ‘Cleanest Signal’ Emerged Highlighting changes in the Miner Reserves metric, which measures the total Bitcoin held in miner-affiliated addresses, Martinez revealed that about 3,400 BTC have been sent from addresses associated with network validators since April 7. Interestingly, this period has coincided with the coin’s price rising from $72,000 to around $82,790, further supporting the profit-taking hypothesis. The analyst wrote on X: Back then, Bitcoin was trading near $72,000. Through the recent climb toward yesterday’s peak of $82,790, which represents a 15% price increase, miners have been steadily booking profits. On-chain data shows that miners have offloaded approximately 3,400 $BTC during this run, taking advantage of the recent price expansion to cover operational costs or lock in gains at multi-month highs. Typically, falling Miner Reserves indicate that miners are distributing their coin to take profit, often to cover costs. As seen with several firms pivoting toward AI data centers, the profitability of the Bitcoin mining industry has been under significant pressure over the past few years. More pertinently, the latest profit-taking and selling pressure can pose a threat to the ongoing recovery in Bitcoin’s price. The flagship cryptocurrency, which appears to have slowed down over the past day, would need uninterrupted bullish momentum to continue its current upside rally. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $80,287, reflecting a mere 0.8% leap in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the market leader’s value has risen about 3% over the past seven days. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees Sharp Decline In High-Leverage Long Positions — See What Happens Next Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin (BTC) defends a pivotal support level, Tom Lee has called for the end of the crypto winter, setting massive year-end outlooks for the flagship crypto and Ethereum (ETH). Related Reading: DeFi Platform TrustedVolumes Hit By $6.7M Hack As 2026 Exploits Surge Tom Lee Shares $200,000 Bitcoin Target Tom Lee, the chairman of Ethereum’s largest treasury firm, Bitmine Technology, shared bold end-of-year price predictions for the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. During a quick-fire round of questions at Consensus 2026, the executive affirmed that Bitcoin could soar “well past all-time highs” by year’s end, forecasting that its price may trade between $150,000 and $200,000 in late 2026. He also predicted that Ethereum could rally into year-end, potentially reaching new highs between $9,000 and $12,000. Lee said his bullish outlook is based on his belief that the crypto winter is over and that a recovery rally could unfold over the coming months. “Crypto Spring, in our view, has commenced, and like past cycles, investor sentiment and conviction are muted and bearish even as crypto prices strengthen,” he asserted earlier this week, adding that the potential passage, or even failure, of the crypto market structure bill confirms the arrival of crypto spring. The chairman’s bold predictions come as the flagship crypto defends a crucial support zone. Notably, Bitcoin had been trading between $74,000 and $79,000 since mid-April, finally breaking out of this range earlier this week. The flagship crypto soared past the $80,000 resistance on Monday for the first time since January. It then rallied during the first half of the week toward the key $82,500 resistance before rejecting on Thursday. Now, Bitcoin is trading between the $79,000-$80,000 area, which some analysts suggest could make or break BTC’s rally. BTC At Most Crucial Support Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin has successfully held the 21-week EMA, around the $78,000 level. However, he warned that “this move through this resistance area hasn’t been very sustainable thus far, which opens up the possibility for yet another retest of the 21-week EMA going forward.” As a result, BTC needs to successfully retest the 21-week EMA again to avoid being completely rejected from the resistance area, between the 21-week EMA and the 50-week EMA, and dropping into the mid-$70,000s. Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez affirmed that Bitcoin is currently trading around the most important resistance level as the average cost basis of new whales, the entities that bought in the last 155 days, currently sits at $80,300. He explained that “when Bitcoin trades below this average cost basis, these whales are holding at a loss,” which means that new whales will be “incentivized to sell just to break even and avoid further losses” if BTC fails to hold the $80,300 area as support. Related Reading: Solana Eyes New Leg Up After Triangle Breakout – Is $96 The Next Stop? Martinez warned that this panic to exit would create a wave of selling pressure that pushes prices much lower. On the contrary, if the flagship crypto turns this level into support, it’d signal that selling pressure has exhausted. “Once these whales are back in the green, they stop selling and start holding for higher targets, which is exactly how new uptrends begin,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s climb back above $82,000 has led to bullish conviction among investors. However, an interesting technical analysis suggests that the rally may still be part of a corrective structure, not the start of a clean impulsive breakout. That difference is important, because the analysis shows that Bitcoin is now approaching a resistance band that could decide whether the rebound continues or turns into another trap for late buyers. Bitcoin Heads Into Major Resistance Zone The BTC price climbed back above $80,000 this week, with the move supported by strong inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, crypto analyst Tara is not convinced this bullish move tells the full story. Related Reading: What The Aggressive Profit-Taking By Bitcoin Investors Means For The Price Tara’s outlook is built around Bitcoin’s reaction to the macro 0.382 retracement level. According to the analyst, the Bitcoin price broke above this level without first establishing stronger support below it. That has created a setup where the price action can still push higher, but the move may be vulnerable because the foundation below the rally is not as strong as bulls would want. Therefore, Bitcoin’s failure to establish solid support after breaking above a key macro Fibonacci level has left the asset exposed, now pressing into a major resistance zone spanning between $85,200 and $93,000. The short-term structure has clearly improved from the early February lows around $60,000, but Tara’s chart points to several overhead levels that now matter. The first major red resistance line is around $85,288, which corresponds with the 0.382 retracement on the projected structure. Above that, the 0.5 retracement level near $93,099 becomes the bigger test. Based on the analyst’s count, the current rally should be a counter Wave B move within a larger corrective ABC trend. The analyst described Wave B as one of the most deceptive phases of a market cycle because it can make traders believe the correction is already over. However, the range between $85,200 and $93,000 represents the region where the Wave B rally could start to lose strength. What Comes Next? The Crash Risk Now that the Bitcoin price is approaching resistance, the outlook is what to expect based on what could happen if it is rejected at that zone. The next phase can turn lower and punish buyers who entered too late. Related Reading: Mapping The Bitcoin Price Crash To $63,000: Why BTC Must Reclaim This Level The chart sketches this exact possibility with two projected downward paths from the upper resistance region. One begins around $85,000, and the other begins closer to the $93,000 level. Both paths suggest that a rejection from the resistance band could bring the Bitcoin price below $60,000. A sustained break above $85,200 would bring the $93,000 region into action. A clean move above $93,000 would then weaken the bearish corrective setup. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,742, down by 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has identified a significant divergence in the demand structures driving Bitcoin and Ethereum’s recoveries in 2026, with Bitcoin attracting sustained institutional spot buying while Ethereum’s price stability reflects reduced selling pressure rather than genuine new demand — a distinction that carries major implications for the broader market’s next move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims Short-Term Holder Cost Basis—What It Means According to CryptoQuant’s analysis of on-chain and exchange data covering April and early May 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum are operating under fundamentally different demand regimes. Bitcoin’s recovery has been driven by real spot purchases — investors buying and withdrawing BTC from exchanges into long-term storage — a dynamic that removes available sell-side supply and creates a structural tailwind for price even during low-volume periods. Ethereum’s stabilization, by contrast, appears to be largely a function of sellers stepping back rather than buyers stepping in. Bitcoin v. Ethereum: Spot and Leverage Distinction The difference matters more than it may initially appear. When demand comes through spot ETFs or direct purchases, coins leave exchange inventories and are effectively taken off the market. When demand is primarily expressed through futures and perpetual contracts, coins stay on exchanges and positions can be unwound quickly — returning supply and amplifying volatility when sentiment shifts. CryptoQuant’s data makes the institutional gap between the two assets concrete. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $532 million in net inflows on May 4 alone, per the firm’s analysis, and $2.44 billion across the full month of April — the largest monthly institutional buying figure in nearly eight months. US Ethereum spot ETFs logged $61.29 million in net inflows on the same day, a positive data point, but the scale and consistency of ETH’s institutional flows have not matched Bitcoin’s trajectory, per CryptoQuant’s assessment as reported by Bitcoin.com News. The Bitcoin price follows the spike in fund holdings, while the Ethereum price remains stalled due to less institutional interest. Source: CryptoQuant What It Takes For ETH To Catch Up CryptoQuant’s central finding points toward a clear threshold: Bitcoin dominance — BTC’s share of total crypto market capitalization, which currently sits above 60% — is likely to hold until Ethereum demonstrates the kind of sustained spot buying that has underpinned Bitcoin’s recovery. Should ETH eventually mirror BTC’s spot demand pattern, the firm’s analysis suggests a broader altcoin rally could follow, as capital rotates outward from Bitcoin into the wider market. Until that rotation materializes, the current environment reflects capital concentration rather than broad-based recovery — a distinction the nascent sector’s most attentive observers are tracking closely heading into the second quarter. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Back Under Pressure, Rebound Chances Face Big Test As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $81,500, consolidating above the critical $80,000 level as institutional accumulation continues to provide structural support for the asset’s near-term price floor. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $81,200 zone. BTC is correcting gains and might struggle to stay above the $78,800 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $80,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $81,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $80,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $81,200 and $80,800 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $81,500 support zone. BTC started a downside correction below the $81,200 and $80,800 levels to enter a short-term bearish zone. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $82,790 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $80,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $78,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $80,400 level. The first key resistance is near the $80,800 level. A close above the $80,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $81,250 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $82,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $81,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,800 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $82,790 high. The first major support is near the $78,000 level. The next support is now near the $77,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $77,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $76,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $78,800, followed by $78,000. Major Resistance Levels – $81,200 and $81,500.
A crypto analyst has identified a multi-year Cup and Handle pattern on the Bitcoin (BTC) chart that he says has gone largely unnoticed by the broader market, despite its significance. The analyst believes this single formation signals a major bull trend ahead for Bitcoin, projecting a minimum price target of $220,000 once the cryptocurrency begins its parabolic move. Bitcoin’s Roadmap To A $220,000 Price Target Market analyst Crypto Tice has announced that Bitcoin has completed a Cup and Handle pattern that had been forming for years. In an X post, the expert clearly outlined the formation on a chart, displaying a rounded U-shaped curve that marks the Cup portion of the pattern. This is followed by a handle positioned just above it, defined by upper and lower trendlines that sit parallel to each other. Related Reading: Ripple’s $12.5 Trillion Claim: How Does XRP Fit Into 13,000 Banks? The emergence of a Cup and Handle pattern is often seen as a bullish indicator, as it signals that a cryptocurrency may be getting ready to break above resistance and extend its uptrend. Notably, Crypto Tice revealed that Bitcoin has already broken above a resistance zone of its Cup and Handle pattern, reinforcing his bullish stance. The analyst identified this key resistance between $62,000 and $74,000, noting that Bitcoin has also cleanly retested this area after its recent surge above $80,000. According to Crypto Tice, this successful retest has confirmed the overall structure, setting the stage for a potential continuation to the upside. Given the strength of these formations, Crypto Tice made clear that Cup and Handle patterns do not signal modest moves like a 20% rally. Rather, they have historically preceded gains in the hundreds of percent, suggesting that a massive price surge could be on the horizon for Bitcoin. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin’s next launch phase points toward a minimum upper price target of $220,000. This means he expects the cryptocurrency to rally even higher if its bullish momentum persists after it hits the initially projected high. From its current price above $80,000, this would represent a potential gain of more than 171% for Bitcoin. Analyst Maps Out Bitcoin’s Potential Rally To $500,000 In a separate analysis, Crypto Tice shared a longer-term outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a massive price surge to $500,000. He outlined a clear roadmap showing how the BTC price could reach this ambitious target. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered Its ‘Most Dangerous Quarter,’ And This Expert Is Warning Investors The analyst pointed to an ascending channel on the Bitcoin chart, defined by two parallel straight lines. The channel shows that Bitcoin previously experienced a parabolic rally after completing three distinct moves, which Crypto Tice identified as a “first touch” of a support level, “a midrange rally,” and a “rejection back to support.” Now, the analyst believes that Bitcoin has completed the same three moves within the current channel, reinforcing his bullish stance. He added that Bitcoin is also currently sitting at the second support touch, likely preparing to launch its next bull trend, with a potential price target of $500,000 in sight. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as market data reveals a massive long liquidation imbalance, with an estimated $15 billion in leveraged positions sitting below the current price. This concentration of downside liquidity creates a high-risk environment where even a modest drop could trigger cascading liquidations. How Bitcoin’s Liquidity Structure Suggests Volatility Ahead Bitcoin is developing one of the most extreme liquidation imbalances, as long liquidations currently outweigh short liquidations. A crypto trader known as Max Trades on X highlighted that the current liquidation data showed a massive concentration of long positions sitting below the market, with an estimated $15 billion in long liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $82K, But Metrics Don’t Smile: Network Activity Down, Spot Demand Negative—What’s Next? Meanwhile, only around $3 billion in short liquidations remains above current price levels. This creates a striking 5:1 imbalance, suggesting the market is heavily skewed toward downside liquidity. Despite this setup, BTC has continued grinding higher, with upward momentum largely driven by new short positions entering the market. However, if shorts stop providing fuel for the move and market makers turn their focus toward the dense liquidity below the price, the market may become vulnerable to a sharp liquidation cascade. Why Bitcoin’s Current Rally May Be Vulnerable To A Pullback Bitcoin continues to show strength, but several internal market signals suggest the current rally may be losing momentum in the short term. Analyst Kaz has stated that BTC is currently trading within a relatively tight range around the $81,500 level, while trading volume has started to fade. Related Reading: Here’s What Triggered The Bitcoin Price Decline Before The Recent Bounce At the same time, Open Interest (OI) remains stable and flat, indicating that large new leveraged positions are not entering the market. The perpetual futures CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is still climbing, showing that buyers remain active, but the pace of that momentum has slowed noticeably. Spot CVD is also trending higher, suggesting genuine spot demand is still supporting the move, but recent candles indicate that the strength has started to weaken. Meanwhile, shorts continue to get liquidated periodically, helping sustain the BTC upward grind, while the squeeze is becoming smaller. Despite these warning signs, the broader internals still favor the bulls for now. When price grinds higher on fading volume, the CVDs show slow momentum, and open interest is flat. Kaz noted that the move is weakening and is due for a pullback, and making a decision based on this move is not optimal. The focus now shifts to monitoring changes in open interest and spot CVD for clearer direction. With midweek volatility (Wednesday) in play, BTC can still turn bearish. If BTC price pushes higher before the New York Open (NYO), without meaningful support from open interest and spot demand, a dump during the NYO is likely. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Keonne Rodriguez, co-founder of the now-shuttered Bitcoin privacy wallet Samourai Wallet, has published an appeal from federal prison asking the Bitcoin community for donations to help cover more than $2 million in accumulated legal debt — after acknowledging that hopes for a presidential pardon have effectively faded. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Still Healthy, But Volume Divergence Raises Questions Rodriguez, 37, is five months into a 60-month sentence at FPC Morgantown, a federal prison camp in West Virginia. In a post published on X on May 6, written in his own name, he described a financial situation that has left him and his wife Lauren with no remaining options. Daily calls and letters from lawyers demanding payment, combined with ongoing pressure from the Department of Justice to begin making good on a $250,000 court-imposed fine, have made the situation untenable, he wrote. The Financial Toll Of The Case – Bitcoin Community’s Rol The legal debt Rodriguez is carrying reflects the scale of a federal case that stretched from his April 2024 arrest through a guilty plea in July 2025 and sentencing in November of the same year. Rodriguez and co-founder William Lonergan Hill — who received a four-year sentence — pleaded guilty to conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business, forfeiting approximately $6.37 million in fees earned from Samourai’s operations as part of the judgment, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. Rodriguez told journalist and Bitcoin educator Natalie Brunell in December 2025, as reported by CoinDesk, that he accepted the plea after calculating that proceeding to trial carried the risk of significantly longer prison time and millions more in legal costs. The calculation did not spare him the financial consequences of the defense itself. Pardon Hopes Have Dimmed In the X post, Rodriguez addressed directly what many in the community had hoped for. President Trump indicated in December 2025 that he would review the case and consider a pardon — a statement that generated brief optimism, particularly given Trump’s earlier pardons of Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. The Bitcoin 2026 conference came and went without action. “One must come to terms with the fact that I am simply a federal prisoner without money, power, or influence,” Rodriguez wrote in the post, “and I will serve my full sentence.” A petition supporting a pardon had gathered approximately 15,955 signatures as of May 7, according to Cryip.co. Rodriguez directed donation requests to the Bitcoin address bc1qtjjcvn98wh7dfd55m8kxhjcfexanttwt8gtan8, with private alternatives available through his wife’s X account. At the time of writing, the address provided by Rodriguez shows around $65,000 in donations. A Case That Redefined Developer Liability Samourai Wallet served over 100,000 users and processed more than $2 billion in Bitcoin transactions since its 2015 launch, according to the DOJ. Federal prosecutors argued that co-founders Rodriguez and Hill knowingly facilitated criminal activity through the platform’s Whirlpool mixing and Ricochet hopping services, citing court evidence including private communications and public statements made by both men promoting the tools to users seeking to obscure transaction origins. The case has continued to anchor a broader debate within the Bitcoin and open-source development community over whether builders of non-custodial software tools can face criminal liability for how third parties choose to use their code. The Cato Institute argued the prosecution risked a chilling effect on privacy advocates, human rights activists, and software developers alike, per earlier reporting. The original Samourai code continues to circulate through the Ashigaru fork, developed by an independent group of contributors following the platform’s shutdown. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Still Healthy, But Volume Divergence Raises Questions Rodriguez himself warned in December 2025 that Bitcoin miners could become the next targets of money transmission enforcement if the legal reasoning applied in the Samourai case is taken to its logical conclusion. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview This development marks a significant and troubling moment for the nascent sector — one that will likely continue to shape how developers, lawyers, and regulators think about the line between building financial privacy tools and operating financial infrastructure under US law. Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong bullish structure, with price action steadily grinding higher across multiple timeframes. While bulls remain in control for now, the growing divergence between price and volume could signal slowing momentum and increase the risk of a pullback if buying pressure fails to return. A Hold Above Key Support At $74,937 As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above the critical floor of $74,937, the current upward momentum remains intact. Market analyst Kamile Uray notes that the primary obstacle for bulls during this ascent is the $98,000 resistance level. Establishing a daily close above this threshold would clear the path for the asset to test the next major supply zone located between $107,000 and $109,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tests Crucial $80,000 Resistance: One Move Could Change Everything The $107,000–$109,000 range is expected to serve as a formidable barrier for price action. Should Bitcoin struggle to gain further traction and fail to sustain a breakthrough above $126,199, the market may face a significant rejection. Such a failure at these elevated levels would likely trigger a pullback as traders take profits and momentum stalls. In the event of a retracement, the $68,000–$71,000 region could provide the necessary liquidity to stabilize the price. However, if the selling pressure intensifies, the $60,000–$62,433 range will become a vital support corridor. A decisive daily close below the psychological $60,000 mark would be a bearish signal, suggesting that the decline is deepening, leading to a significant, long-term market correction. Bitcoin Climbs Higher Despite Declining Volume In a recent update, JDK Analysis noted that Bitcoin continues to grind higher, but trading volume has been steadily declining during the move. Despite the drop in volume, lower timeframes still indicate a very strong structural uptrend, with no obvious signs of weakness or breakdowns at present. As a result, there is currently no clear short-term setup worth acting on, as buyers continue to maintain control of the market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Gains Fade After Strong Rally Push Sparks Profit-Taking Price has also front-ran the next major resistance zone, meaning it moved aggressively before properly testing that level. If Bitcoin revisits the area, particularly around the all-time high anchored VWAP (aVWAP), attention will shift toward the possibility of an SFP (swing failure pattern) forming at the current highs, which could provide a potential short trigger. For bullish setups, the $73,000–$74,000 region remains the next key area of interest for possible long opportunities. Rather than chasing prices higher at current levels, the preference is to wait for a deeper pullback into a cleaner support zone before considering new positions. With market conditions becoming increasingly extended, protecting capital remains the top priority, while profit opportunities come second. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt said the Trump administration will announce new details on the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within “the next few weeks,” framing the update as both a policy milestone and a custody response after an alleged exploit involving digital assets held by the US Marshals Service. Speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami on Wednesday, Witt said the administration’s work on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or SBR, and the separate digital asset stockpile had been progressing largely out of public view. The next announcement, he indicated, will focus on “exactly the progress that’s been made and where we’re going from here.” Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Heads Toward New Update President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile, with the bitcoin reserve capitalized by BTC finally forfeited to the Treasury through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. The non-bitcoin stockpile covers other forfeited digital assets under a separate framework. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, But On-Chain Activity Signals A Silent Warning Witt tied the coming update directly to a recent security incident. “So, as many of the folks in this room may have seen, there was an exploit of certain assets that were held by the US Marshals just a month or two ago. We obviously started the work on the SBR, the digital asset stockpile, without thinking about that, but obviously thinking about we need to properly secure these assets. So it’s a case in point for why it was so necessary that the President established the SBR and that he instructed the agencies to take these assets very seriously and properly safeguard them.” He added that digital asset custody creates challenges that do not fit neatly into legacy government asset-management procedures. “Custody is unique for digital assets. So we’ve made a tremendous amount of progress that’s kind of happened in the background and we’ll be making an announcement in the next few weeks, you know, laying out exactly the progress that’s been made and where we’re going from here.” The exploit Witt referenced appears to be the alleged theft tied to John Daghita, also known online as “John” or “Lick.” The case became public after blockchain investigator ZachXBT linked the “John/Lick” persona to wallets moving funds connected to US government-controlled crypto addresses. TRM Labs later said Daghita was arrested in Saint Martin in a joint operation involving the French Gendarmerie and the FBI, with authorities alleging he stole cryptocurrency from wallets associated with the US Marshals Service. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish May Signal After Two Green Months According to TRM’s summary, the investigation traced part of the activity to cryptocurrency seized in connection with the 2016 Bitfinex hack. TRM said approximately $24.9 million of the traced funds originated from a US government-controlled wallet, while ZachXBT alleged that Daghita stole more than $46 million in seized crypto assets by abusing access at CMDSS, his father’s company, which held a US Marshals Service contract. Notably, Witt had already previewed the update days earlier at Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas. Speaking on a panel at The Venetian Resort, he said the administration had spent months working through the legal interpretations needed to protect bitcoin on the government balance sheet after Trump’s executive order. “In the next few weeks, we’ll be making a big announcement,” Witt said there, adding that the administration believed it could take a “big step forward from the executive branch side” even before Congress acts. He also made clear at Bitcoin 2026 that legislation would still be needed to lock the policy in more permanently. That distinction is central: an executive-branch framework can shape custody and management now, but a statutory framework would be harder for a future administration to unwind. At press time, BTC traded at $81,530. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On Wednesday, Bitcoin reached its highest level since January, crossing above the $82,000 threshold. However, one analyst has warned that the latest upswing may not be driven by genuine demand. Instead, he describes it as a so-called “speculative trap” and points to signals suggesting there may be little underlying momentum before the market potentially retraces sharply. $83,000 Condition For Bitcoin In a post on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst OxPepesso argued that BTC is moving in a way that looks similar to the “S&P 500 AI bubble,” implying that Bitcoin is largely tracking broader stock-market sentiment rather than showing distinct, organic crypto drivers. OxPepesso suggested that, with the equity market surging, Bitcoin is essentially being pulled along as risk appetite rises—rather than benefiting from meaningful, independent on-chain or spot demand. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Warns: If CLARITY Act Markup Slips, Chances Fall ‘Precipitously’ The core of the analyst’s skepticism centers on what he says is happening beneath the price action. According to OxPepesso, network activity has just hit a two-year low, and actual spot demand is “literally negative.” In his view, that combination would mean the rally lacks the kind of real buying pressure that usually sustains higher prices. He added that the current push appears to be propped up by futures speculation, and warned that a single geopolitical development could quickly sour sentiment—potentially crashing both markets at once. Until Bitcoin reclaims its previous range low above $83,000, according to the analyst, the rally should be treated as a fakeout—not a durable trend. In that analogy, he cited a range high around $94,500 that was previously reached, rejected, and then “flushed” down into what he described as a weaker bottom near $60,000. The analyst’s key condition is clear: a clean daily close above $83,000 would “flip the rally real,” while anything below it, in his framework, could set up the market for a sharp drop. Seller Pressure Ahead? While OxPepesso’s remarks emphasize caution, another lens on the market comes from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which highlighted data points it says align with an attempt at structural improvement. In a new report, CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79100. CryptoQuant’s interpretation is that maintaining holdings above these levels could signal a short-lived deep value phase, and it also pointed to $85,200 as the next key resistance area. Related Reading: Strategy Reports Q1 Results: Over $12 Billion In Red Ink—Here Are The Key Figures Contrary to OxPepesso’s analysis, the firm also said that spot demand and Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are rebuilding, which it interprets as bulls still having control—at least for the moment. Still, the report emphasizes that Bitcoin is approaching a ceiling where additional supply may re-emerge, making the next phase more about whether buyers can keep pace as price reaches zones where sellers are likely to become more active. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had retraced toward $81,538 following its earlier push above $82,000 on Wednesday. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $81,200 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $82,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $80,200 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $80,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $80,200 and $80,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Climbs Further Bitcoin price found support near $79,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $79,800 and $80,000 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $81,500. A high was formed at $82,790, and the price started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $82,790 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $81,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $82,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $82,750 level. A close above the $82,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $83,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $82,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,800 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $80,200 level. The next support is now near the $78,850 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $82,790 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $77,850 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $76,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,800, followed by $80,000. Major Resistance Levels – $82,000 and $82,500.
Bitcoin is pushing toward $82,000 as the market tests a resistance level that has capped every recent attempt at higher prices. The recovery from the March lows has been constructive, but the next meaningful move requires breaking through overhead that has so far absorbed every bullish effort. An XWIN Research Japan analysis has identified a structural target above the current price that gives the current test a specific forward context. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Just Hit A Five-Year Low: Discover What Happens When A Market Gets This Thin The analysis explains a mechanism that experienced Bitcoin traders reference regularly but that many participants have never had fully explained: the CME gap. Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange trade only on weekdays, while spot Bitcoin markets run continuously around the clock. Every weekend, when CME is closed, spot prices keep moving. When futures reopen Monday morning, a gap forms between where the market was on Friday and where it is now. These gaps represent price ranges where no futures trades occurred — zones of thin liquidity that markets tend to revisit as positions are adjusted. One such gap has already been filled in the current cycle. The next unfilled gap sits at approximately $93,000 — a level that XWIN Research Japan identifies as a logical medium-term upside target for precisely this structural reason. That $93,000 level is not a guarantee. But it is not arbitrary either. Understanding the force that makes these gaps magnetic is what determines how much weight the target deserves. The Gap Is Not Magic. It Is Mechanics The XWIN Research Japan report draws the distinction that separates useful market analysis from superstition. CME gaps are not magnetic price levels in any mystical sense — they do not pull Bitcoin toward them through some invisible force. They exist because a specific range of prices saw zero futures trading, leaving behind a zone of thin liquidity that the market has structural reasons to revisit. The mechanism is positioning. Every open futures contract must eventually be closed through profit-taking, liquidation, or expiration. The aggregate of all outstanding contracts is Open Interest, and when OI is elevated, it signals that significant energy has accumulated in the system. That energy does not stay there indefinitely. It releases through position unwinds, and when large amounts of leverage unwind simultaneously, price moves sharply. The direction of that movement is not random. It gravitates toward areas where liquidity concentrates, and CME gaps are precisely those areas. The path to $93,000 is not necessarily direct. The report adds the honest complication that makes the target more credible rather than less. If leverage continues building without strong spot demand to support it, the market may first move lower to flush out late long positions — a reset that clears fragile leverage before a cleaner attempt at the upper gap becomes possible. CME gaps are signals, not certainties. What makes the $93,000 level worth tracking is the convergence of positioning pressure, liquidity structure, and market psychology that the gap represents. When those three forces align around the same price zone, it becomes a reference point that the market eventually addresses — on its own timeline, through its own mechanics. Related Reading: Ethereum Withdrawals From Exchanges Just Hit An 8-Month Low: Find Out What Investors Are Waiting For Bitcoin Tests Major Resistance As Structure Improves Bitcoin is pressing into the $82,000 region, a level that has repeatedly acted as resistance throughout the recent recovery. The chart shows a clear shift in structure since the February capitulation, with price transitioning from a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into a sustained pattern of higher lows. This indicates that buyers are gradually gaining control, but the market has not yet confirmed a full trend reversal. The reclaim of the short-term moving averages is constructive. Price is now holding above the 50-day and attempting to challenge the 100-day, both of which are flattening after a prolonged decline. However, the 200-day moving average remains overhead near the mid-$80,000s, still trending downward. This keeps the broader trend context neutral to bearish despite the short-term improvement. Related Reading: Bitmine Just Crossed $10 Billion In Staked Ethereum – 88% of Everything It Owns Is Now Locked In Volume does not show aggressive expansion on the move higher. Compared to the selloff phase, participation remains relatively subdued. Suggesting that the recovery may be driven more by reduced selling pressure than strong demand. If Bitcoin breaks and holds above $82,000, the structure opens the path toward the $85,000–$88,000 range. Failure to clear this level would likely send the price back toward the $74,000–$76,000 support zone, where the recent higher low structure becomes critical. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin pushed above $82,000 on Wednesday as markets rallied around fresh hopes that the US and Iran are moving closer to a framework agreement that could cool the conflict and ease pressure on global energy markets. The move extended Bitcoin’s recovery from its early-February low near $60,000, putting the asset up more than 36% from that level. It also added weight to a technical shift that began in late April, when BTC broke above a major downtrend line that had capped price action since the October 6 all-time high at $126,199. After confirming the breakout with a successful retest, Bitcoin has climbed roughly 10% over the past seven days. Deal Hopes Trigger Risk-On Bid For Bitcoin The latest catalyst came from an Axios report saying the White House believes it is close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding designed to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios reported that the US expects Iranian responses on several key points within 48 hours, while cautioning that “nothing has been agreed yet.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, But On-Chain Activity Signals A Silent Warning According to the report, the draft memorandum includes 14 points and is being negotiated by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators. In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the regional war and start a 30-day negotiation window on a broader agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and US sanctions. That distinction matters for markets. This is not yet a final peace agreement, and officials cited by Axios warned that Iran’s leadership remains divided. But for investors, even a credible path toward de-escalation was enough to reprice risk assets sharply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish May Signal After Two Green Months Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the process as incomplete but potentially actionable. “We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day. This is highly complex and technical.” Rubio added that Washington needed a diplomatic solution clear enough on “the topics they are willing to negotiate on” and the concessions available at the outset. The crypto rally arrived alongside a broader macro move. Crude oil fell sharply as traders priced in the possibility that restrictions around global energy flows could ease if the US-Iran framework progresses. WTI crude fell to $94.32, while Brent went down 6.7% to $102.56. Equity futures also strengthened. US stock index futures extended gains after the Axios report, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.26% and S&P 500 up 0.81% in pre-market trading. For Bitcoin, the setup was unusually direct: lower geopolitical risk, falling oil, stronger tech-led equity futures and renewed appetite for high-beta assets. Crypto moved as part of that broader risk-on rotation rather than as an isolated digital-asset event. UPDATE: The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) reports via X that “US oil prices are experiencing a sharp reversal, now up +8% in 60 minutes, as doubts grow over an Axios-reported potential deal to end the Iran War,” adding that “tis comes as Iran has launched a new website called the ‘Persian Gulf Strait Authority.’ At press time, BTC traded at $82,149. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading just above the $81,000 level as the market waits to see whether the next move will push higher or pull back. Against that backdrop, Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, reiterated his bullish view on the leading cryptocurrency. In a Wednesday interview with CNBC, Siegel again pointed to a dramatic upside scenario, saying he expects Bitcoin to potentially reach $1,000,000 within the next five years. Why Bitcoin May Persist Siegel compared Bitcoin’s staying power to a familiar arc from the tech world. “It’s going to be like the video game industry.” In the same spirit, Siegel argued that investors do not simply abandon Bitcoin and move on. “People don’t quit; they also don’t quit Bitcoin.” He added that the market is also being shaped by a larger structural shift, noting that the first central bank has begun buying Bitcoin for its reserves, which he called a “mega trend,” even if it will be “very volatile along the way.” Related Reading: Ripple CEO Warns: If CLARITY Act Markup Slips, Chances Fall ‘Precipitously’ Siegel also pointed to specific market conditions that he believes are helping support the current momentum. One factor is Bitcoin’s relationship with broader risk assets—particularly technology stocks. He said Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has risen to a five-year high, helping explain why recent gains have appeared alongside a wider macro move. In other words, rather than Bitcoin moving in isolation, it has been trading more like a high-beta asset tied to technology-heavy indices. Another part of his argument focuses on the derivatives market. Siegel said he sees an absence of froth in derivatives, which he interprets as a sign that the rally is being driven more by short covering than by speculative overexuberance. Near $3 Million By 2050? VanEck’s research head has also made an even longer-term projection earlier this year, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to as much as $2.9 million per coin by 2050. That estimate, Siegel implied, is tied to a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s potential role across two major markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. Related Reading: Strategy Reports Q1 Results: Over $12 Billion In Red Ink—Here Are The Key Figures Looking ahead to 2050, he predicted that Bitcoin would settle between 5% and 10% of global international trade, while also accounting for 5% of domestic trade transactions. Siegel further explained that, under a scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the model could produce an extremely high implied value—he said it could rise to $53.4 million per coin. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s recovery attempt has carried it back above $80,000 for the first time since late January 2026, giving bulls a reason to argue that the worst of the recent correction has passed. However, one crypto analyst believes the move is running directly into the level that could decide how May ends for BTC. In a technical outlook shared on X, crypto analyst Leshka warned that Bitcoin is likely to close May in the red, pointing to a bear flag structure playing out on the daily chart. Why Bitcoin Will Close May In Red Leshka’s outlook on Bitcoin is based on its price action since the February dump. The daily candlestick timeframe chart shows BTC recovering inside an ascending channel, with price grinding higher from the $60,000 region into the $80,000 range at the time of writing. This recovery looks constructive because the movement has caused Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher highs since the February low. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Is Coming: Pundit Says It’s Time To Sell All Your BTC However, Leshka interprets the same structure differently. According to the analyst, the rising channel is a bear flag currently in formation. A bear flag usually appears when price bounces upward in a controlled channel after a major drop, only to later break below the structure and continue lower. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent advance is shown pressing on the upper boundary of the ascending channel, and this is around the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly, Bitcoin has gone seven months without a daily close above this moving average, and this makes it a major line between a recovery rally and a confirmed trend reversal. At the time of writing, the 200 MA is around $82,000. The outlook here depends on how the Bitcoin price reacts to this level. The projected bearish path proposed by the analyst shows Bitcoin making one final push into the resistance/200 MA confluence before reversing lower, losing the channel, and falling back to the $58,000 to $56,000 range by June. BTC’s May Record Faces A Major Test Bitcoin is already up 7.11% so far in May 2026. Bitcoin’s monthly return table shows that May has often been one of its stronger months, with an average gain of 18.7% and a median return of 8.32% across previous years. Bitcoin’s price action for May in the last two years was positive, with the cryptocurrency gaining 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY That historical strength is what makes this prediction more interesting. The problem is that the rally is now pressing into the exact resistance zone where the 200-day moving average is situated. Previous red May closes have also appeared during difficult market phases, including a 35.4% decline in May 2021, a 15.9% decline in May 2022, and a 7.10% decline in May 2023. Leshka’s view is that 2026 could join that group if the current move fails at the top of the ascending channel. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin recovery above $80,000 has brought some sort of confidence back into the crypto market, but a crypto expert is warning that the timing of the rebound may be more dangerous than it looks. As noted by the expert, who goes by the name Crypto Patel on X, Bitcoin has now entered the same part of the four-year cycle that previously produced some of its deepest quarterly breakdowns. Bitcoin Is Repeating A Mid-Term Year Pattern Bitcoin has broken above the $80,000 mark and this has led to Coinmarketcap’s fear and greed index pushing into high neutral numbers. This move has been helped by stronger ETF inflows in April and May, but Bitcoin is still 35.5% below its October 2025 peak. All these factors say Bitcoin’s price action in May is starting with a positive note. However, according to observations noted by Crypto Patel on the social media platform X, mid-term years have been accompanied by Bitcoin price crashes, and this has repeated across multiple cycles. Related Reading: Ex-Ripple Exec Breaks Down The XRP To $10,000 Predictions, Is It Possible? The expert pointed to previous price actions in May in previous years as examples of this mid-term year weakness. His chart, published alongside the post, pointed to four distinct bear markets, each annotated with the peak-to-trough decline. In 2014, Bitcoin peaked in May and subsequently fell 76.04%. In 2018, another May peak preceded a 68.35% collapse. In 2022, the same seasonal window in May led to a 70.06% price crash. The pattern is precise: three midterm years, three May peaks, and three catastrophic declines. “Three for three,” Crypto Patel wrote. “Not coincidence. Cycle mechanics.” The chart then projects a similar structure into 2026, which is a mid-term year, showing another possible 66.54% drop from the current price. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X The Relief Rally Trap According to this outlook, the Bitcoin price is now at an identical inflection point, right where previous cycles began their most damaging legs down. Applying the average drawdown structure from prior mid-term cycles to the current price action, Crypto Patel projected a bottom zone anywhere between $50,000 and $30,000. Related Reading: Does The Ethereum 300% Boost In Capacity Mean Price Can Rise 3x To $6,000? The difficult part of Patel’s outlook is that Bitcoin’s current market structure is not completely bearish. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,530 and is now close to breaking above its 200-day EMA around $83,000. Bitcoin spent the last eight weeks consolidating in the $60,000 to $72,000 range before its recent recovery. That recovery has been interpreted by much of the market as confirmation that the bottom is established and the worst is over. However, the crypto expert’s post directly addresses this sentiment as a possible trap. “The dip is in. Wrong. That’s the trap,” he said. Several analysts have also noted that the four-year halving cycle suggests that the current bear market may extend through Q4 before forming a durable bottom. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling personal finance book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has issued a stark warning about what he describes as a coming retirement crisis for Baby Boomers, pointing to cryptos such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets like gold, and silver as the core assets families should hold to protect themselves from the turbulence ahead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 But Something Doesn’t Add Up, Here’s What In a post on X directed at “Boomers” and their families, Kiyosaki traced his concern back to 1974, when he said he first identified the structural conditions that would eventually produce what he now calls the “Baby Boomer Retirement Disaster.” With millions of Boomers facing financial difficulty in 2026 — some, he warned, facing homelessness — the author framed the moment as the arrival of a crisis he has spent decades trying to help people avoid. What Top Cryptos You Should Hold? The prescription Kiyosaki offered was direct. In the post, he pointed readers toward what he described as the foundation of a sound financial future: real gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. The framing was deliberate — “real gold” rather than paper or ETF exposure — signaling a preference for physical and decentralized assets over instruments tied to the traditional financial system he has long criticized. The recommendation places Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside the two oldest monetary hedges in history, a pairing Kiyosaki has returned to consistently in recent years as his skepticism toward fiat currency and Wall Street has deepened. The Broader Warning Kiyosaki’s post also referenced two books he wrote specifically for Boomers facing retirement uncertainty — “Retire Young Retire Rich” and “Who Stole My Pension?” — noting that Wall Street has historically resisted both titles. For those who acted on the advice in those books, he suggested, the current environment has validated the preparation. The author closed with a characteristically blunt assessment of what lies ahead, describing a “rough global economy” and urging followers to prepare accordingly. Related Reading: David Schwartz Says Selling XRP Doesn’t Make Him The Villain As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $79,500, with the broader market consolidating near key support levels as macro uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. BTC's price trending upwards on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Crypto analyst Sherlock has revealed how a Bitcoin price crash to $63,000 could play out. He highlighted key levels to watch and zones where traders should look to short BTC in preparation for this potential downtrend. Key Levels To Watch With Bitcoin Price Crash To $63,000 On The Cards In an X post, Sherlock told traders to look for a short setup around $80,000 if the Bitcoin price only takes the equal highs around this range and then gets rejected. However, he added that if BTC breaks above April’s high at $79,485 before May 5, traders shouldn’t short immediately; instead, they should wait for breakout buyers to chase the pump. Related Reading: Bitcoin Closes 2 Green Monthly Candles: Here’s What Historical Data Says Is Coming Next The analyst further highlighted the $84,000 to $85,000 range as the ideal zone to short if the Bitcoin price reclaims the April high, as he expects a short squeeze to happen around that range. This suggests that BTC could still rally to around $85,000 before a decline, since the leading crypto has successfully broken above the April high. Sherlock’s accompanying chart showed that a Bitcoin price crash to around $63,000 could happen within a month after BTC taps the $85,000 level. The analyst also explained why he is confident the leading crypto could still crash despite its current bullish momentum. He noted that since 2020, BTC has always recorded a red monthly candle in May whenever the price failed to break above April’s high in the first five days of May. However, this trend broke last year when the Bitcoin price surpassed April’s high on May 1 and then recorded another 16.9% rally to a local high of $111,980 by May 22. This is notably why BTC could still rally to around $85,000 before the crash occurs. BTC Looks Ready For More Upside Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said in an X post that the Bitcoin price looks ready for more upside, with the potential to rally to as high as $93,000. He noted that BTC broke above $79,000, indicating a clearly upward trend, although intraday corrections are possible. The analyst alluded to flows into Bitcoin ETFs, with these funds recording over $1.6 billion in inflows since the start of this month. Related Reading: This Signal Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bottom, Here’s What It’s Saying Now Van de Poppe also mentioned that there is a lot of interest in BTC at the moment, which is why he believes that the rotation from gold to Bitcoin is definitely taking place. He added that the current uptrend is unlikely to stall anytime soon, with the current construction. This is why he believes there is room for a rally between $86,000 and $88,000, and most likely between $91,000 and $93,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,200, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000 alongside a broad risk rally, but Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital is urging caution — pointing to options market signals, a fragile macro backdrop, and an emerging pressure point in Japan that could tighten global liquidity before the next leg higher is confirmed. Related Reading: Toncoin Surges 60% As Durov Defends Telegram’s TON Push The catalyst for the recovery, according to QCP’s latest market update posted on X, was Trump’s pause on “Project Freedom” — the US-led operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — after the administration cited “great progress” in talks with Iran. Markets read the move as a de-escalation signal. Oil sold off, equities climbed, and the dollar softened as traders began pricing out the immediate risk of a Hormuz disruption. Bitcoin Rides The Risk-On Wave — With Caveats Bitcoin participated fully in the recovery, reclaiming the $80,000 level as the S&P 500 posted its best month since 2020, with semiconductors leading equity gains on the back of resilient AI earnings and robust capex guidance. Per QCP’s analysis, the move reinforces BTC’s renewed linkage with risk assets — once again trading as a high-beta expression of liquidity conditions, dollar weakness, and broader risk appetite rather than as an independent store of value. The $80,000 reclaim looks clean on the surface, but QCP remains cautious. Options Markets Are Not Confirming The Breakout Despite spot climbing back above $81,000 and posting more than 6% gains on the week, QCP notes that options markets have not confirmed a genuine breakout. One-month at-the-money implied volatility sits around 41%, near the lower end of its recent range. Front-month vols have softened even as spot moved higher — a signal, per QCP, of investors hedging against potential risk rather than preparing for further upside. Skew tells a similar story. The 30-day risk reversal remains put-rich (bearish) at approximately -5.5 vol, meaning investors are participating in the upside but still paying for downside protection. As QCP frames it, the market is cautiously optimistic — not euphoric. That distinction matters for how durable the current move proves to be. Japan: The Macro Risk Nobody Is Watching Beyond the Fed and Iran, QCP flags Japan as an emerging pressure point that deserves closer attention. The yen remains weak, Ministry of Finance intervention risk has returned, and Japanese Government Bond yields have moved sharply higher — a combination suggesting markets are already pricing the risk that imported inflation feeds through into Japanese CPI. Should USDJPY push back toward the 160 level, intervention risk rises materially. A sustained increase in JGB term premium, QCP warns, could tighten global liquidity at the margin — a dynamic with consequences well beyond Tokyo for risk assets broadly. The Road Ahead Is Narrow QCP’s bottom line is measured. April’s rally was real, but the firm characterizes it as an earnings and liquidity-led rebound against a fragile macro backdrop rather than a clean regime shift. BTC can continue to grind higher if ETF flows, dollar weakness, and equities hold up — but the rally remains exposed to real yields, oil prices, term premium, and FX intervention risk. With open interest clustered around the $80,000–$85,000 range, a convincing break above $82,000–$83,000 is the level to watch. Until that threshold is cleared, QCP suggests rallies may continue to be faded on any sharp move higher in oil, USDJPY, or global yields. This development marks a pivotal juncture for Bitcoin in the current cycle — the next few sessions will determine whether April’s momentum was the start of something structural or simply a relief trade running on borrowed time. Related Reading: David Schwartz Says Selling XRP Doesn’t Make Him The Villain As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $81,000, holding above the critical $80,000 level as markets await the next macro catalyst. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a notable 21% recovery over the thirty-day timeframe, pushing the largest cryptocurrency in the market above the $81,000 level for the first time since January. Now, BTC is approaching one key resistance, which—if surpassed with a daily close—could open the door to another leg higher. Bitcoin Targets $89,000 And $94,000 Technical analyst Ali Martinez pointed to this momentum in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin continues to show “structural strength.” Martinez referenced a bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossover on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that occurred on April 13. Since that weekly signal appeared, BTC has gained roughly 15% in a relatively steady grind, reinforcing the idea that the trend may be shifting rather than just bouncing randomly. Related Reading: XRP Near $1.40—What Could Spark A Move To $1.70, And How The CLARITY Act Fits In What makes the weekly Bitcoin MACD crossover particularly notable is how it has behaved historically. According to Martinez’s recap of earlier instances, the same kind of crossover preceded major multi-month rallies in prior cycles. The October 23, 2023 crossover was followed by a 147% rally. Another example on October 14, 2024 led to a 75% rise, while the May 5, 2025 crossover resulted in a 35% rally. Even with the broader bullish backdrop, the near-term chart still presents a key test. Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin is moving into the vicinity of the 200-day simple moving average (200SMA), currently around $83,000. He described this area as the most important psychological and structural barrier on the daily chart. In his view, a clean daily close above this level could open the door to a macro expansion, first toward $89,000, with a secondary target near $94,000. Bull Market Support Band Reclaimed Adding to the technical picture, market expert Sam Daodu also flagged a separate indicator involving Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band (currently at $79,000), which is built from the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Daodu noted that whenever Bitcoin reclaimed this band after spending an extended period below it, the market tended to follow with strong rallies—often reaching 50% or more within a few months. Applying that pattern, the bullish path Daodu implied could take BTC toward approximately $121,000, which would still sit just below the all-time high region around $126,000 reached in October of last year. Related Reading: DTCC Tokenized Securities Roadmap: Pilot In July, Scale Up In October—With Big Names Like Ripple Still, even with bullish signals lining up, the situation is not considered settled. The reports emphasize that Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above these levels to maintain the momentum. It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin can continue pressing into resistance successfully, or whether the latest surge above $81,000 could be followed by another correction. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $80,800 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $81,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $80,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,150 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $80,000 and $79,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Could Extend Gains Bitcoin price found support near $78,800 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $79,200 and $80,000 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $80,800. A high was formed at $81,765, and the price started a consolidation phase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $81,765 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,150 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $80,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $81,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $81,750 level. A close above the $81,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $84,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $81,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,500 level. The first major support is near the $80,150 level. The next support is now near the $78,350 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $81,765 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $77,550 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $76,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,150, followed by $78,350. Major Resistance Levels – $81,500 and $82,000.