crypto experts maintain bullish outlook on bitcoin, focusing on impending Fed rate cuts and long-term structural bull run.
The US Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest decision on interest rates. This highly anticipated event has the potential to act as a powerful catalyst for the Bitcoin market, with many analysts and investors speculating that a rate cut could trigger a significant breakout. How A Rate Cut Could Unleash The Next Bitcoin Bull Run The global financial community is entering a crucial week. According to a post on X by crypto commentator Thomas Lauder, in 7 days, the US Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut dollar interest rates, a move that could have far-reaching effects on both traditional finance and crypto markets. Related Reading: $375,000 Bitcoin? Market Veteran Says It’s Closer Than You Think This rate cut could give a strong boost to the price of Bitcoin and other financial assets. Lauder explains that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut would have a direct impact on financial markets by lowering the cost of borrowing and injecting liquidity into the market, a dynamic that has historically benefited Bitcoin and other risk assets. The market’s anticipation is high, as evidenced by predictions on Polymarket, where 83% of bettors are forecasting a 25 basis point cut, and another 14% are betting on an even larger reduction. In the meantime, the market operators are positioning themselves ahead of the news. As a result, Lauder predicts that Bitcoin will experience days of high volatility leading up to the announcement. Why Companies Are Accumulating Bitcoin Relentlessly While the other analyst believes that the coming days will likely see high volatility for BTC as the Fed announces the interest rate cut, notable institutional accumulation is still ongoing. MikeWMunz has explained why certain companies are accumulating Bitcoin at a feverish pace even as their share prices stall. These companies are not weak in lettuce hands, and they are capable of delaying the dopamine hits for when it’s appropriate. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Allocation Climbs As Companies Invest 22% Of Profits: Study However, many of these companies are set to be included in the largest indexes, ensuring they receive steady passive flows as Bitcoin executes its next parabolic move upward. MikeWMunz describes this as a lightning in a bottle, which is a perfect moment of strategy, market mechanics, and timing. Furthermore, he pointed out that the shortsighted views and lack of vision of many investors prevent them from understanding this inevitable outcome. The groundwork and foundation for a new financial era is being built right now, and the lack of patience and inability to see this bigger picture is what holds back many investors from realizing the full potential of this shift. “This does not apply to the leaders of these companies, who are pioneering the ships in their respective markets,” he mentioned.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Federal Reserve’s next decision has the markets buzzing, but one Polymarket trader is taking things to another level. Known online as JustWakingUp, the whale has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. It’s a wager that could turn into a staggering $226,000 payout if …
Bitcoin’s tight range near $111K reflects a market bracing for U.S. CPI and the Fed’s September meeting, with prediction markets pricing a cut and traders watching whether $7T in sidelined cash rotates into crypto once volatility returns.
JPMorgan’s US trading desk is cautioning clients that a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 could mark a near-term peak for risk assets rather than a new leg higher—an outcome that would not spare crypto. In a note flagged by desk head Andrew Tyler, the bank writes: “We have concerns that the September 17 Fed meeting which delivers a 25bp cut could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pullback to consider macro data, Fed’s reaction function, potentially stretched positioning, a weaker corporate buyback bid, and waning participation from the Retail investor.” The timing matters. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs September 16–17, with a statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, September 17. That calendar alone has become a catalyst as traders position around both the size of the cut and the tone of the guidance. Related Reading: Crypto Markets Enter Their Most Crucial Macro Week In 2025 Yet Standard Chartered, pointing to a labor market that has cooled far faster than anticipated, now expects the Fed to deliver a 50-basis-point move. “August labor market data has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, similar to what occurred at this time last year,” the bank said, after US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Steve Englander, global head of G10FX research at Standard Chartered, discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting and why he would consider anything less to be a policy error https://t.co/TJQBGIytIm pic.twitter.com/VP2rVusiA5 — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 8, 2025 JPMorgan’s desk is not abandoning its “lower-conviction Tactical Bullish” stance, but it is urging investors to carry insurance into the event. In addition to recommending that equity investors “consider” adding or increasing gold exposure as cut expectations sap the dollar, Tyler’s team spelled out more explicit hedges for a volatility shock: “we like VIX call spreads or VXX longs as a hedge, as well as parts of Defensives.” The macro backdrop has indeed turned more complicated. August payrolls barely grew and prior data were revised down, while the unemployment rate rose to a near four-year high, developments that have hardened expectations for policy easing but also raised the specter of a growth scare. Meanwhile, gold has been screaming higher—printing successive record highs above $3,600/oz—as investors price both easier policy and broader political-economic risk. Those concurrent signals—weakening labor, stronger bullion—frame why a rate cut may not automatically equal “risk-on” for beta. Crypto Faces Volatility Test For crypto, the read-through is two-sided and highly path dependent. On one hand, the same jobs-driven repricing that has juiced gold has also supported bitcoin in recent sessions as traders lean into the idea of easier money and a softer dollar—classic tailwinds for risk assets and for store-of-value narratives alike. Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run: Probability Of Fed Rate Cuts In September Almost At 100% On the other hand, a mechanical “equities down, vol up” impulse around the decision would likely transmit into crypto assets, where cross-asset de-risking and margin unwinds have historically amplified intraday swings. That tension is visible in current coverage: bitcoin has bounced back toward the $112k area alongside rate-cut bets, yet several market observers warn that a run-of-the-mill 25bp move—especially if framed as a “hawkish cut”—may fail to spark a sustained crypto rally. Notably, a “catch-up” 50bp cut, as Standard Chartered projects, would accelerate the compression in real yields and could weaken the dollar at the margin—conditions that have tended to support bitcoin and liquidity-sensitive altcoins when the move is not seen as recessionary triage. Conversely, a smaller or caveated cut could deliver precisely the “sell the news” pattern JPMorgan warns about, with equities and high-beta assets like crypto marking lower first before reassessing the glide path. History is no lodestar—post-cut outcomes have ranged from strong rallies in mid-cycle adjustments to drawdowns when cuts presaged recession—but it does argue for elevated realized volatility around the first step. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $112,739. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to reports, Michael Saylor told viewers that most equity analysts expect Bitcoin to top $150,000 by Christmas. Related Reading: MemeCore Explodes 3,800% For ATH — But Is A Collapse Around The Corner? From a current price of $113,050, that would require an increase of about 35%. There are roughly three months left until December 25. The figures set a clear benchmark for what traders now call the year-end race. Analysts Back A $150,000 Target Saylor tied the call to wider adoption. He said during a CNBC interview more firms adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets and more people learning about the asset will lift demand. Because Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, that demand pressure, he argued, could push prices higher. The tone was confident, and the math was simple: move from $113k to $150,000, an over 30% gain, and the target is met. Tom Lee Puts A Higher Number On The Table Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global, raised the stakes with a $200,000 projection for Christmas 2025. He linked the outlook to macro policy, pointing to the September 17 FOMC meeting as a potential trigger if interest rates are cut. Lee also suggested that gains in small-cap crypto tokens could lift Ethereum, because ETH has often tracked broader risk appetite. A move to $200,000 from $113 would be much larger — roughly a 70% increase — and would likely need strong macro support. At the same time, seasonal patterns matter: Bitcoin often sees strong performance in the fourth quarter. Those two factors together are why some analysts are comfortable with bold targets. But timing is tight. Three months is a short window for large moves, and unexpected events could derail the path. Odds, Research Firms And Other Voices Other voices have weighed in. Canary CEO Steven McClurg put the odds of reaching $150,000 this year at 50%. Large banks like Standard Chartered have even flagged $200,000 as a possible level for 2025. These projections show a clustering of bullish views, though they span different timeframes and rely on different assumptions. Related Reading: Altcoins Feel The Pinch As Crypto Market Sentiment Sours Market Reaction And Caveats Bitcoin was up about 1% in the past 24 hours. Price moves of 30% to 70% in short stretches have happened before in crypto, but they are not commonplace and they bring big risks. Traders and investors will have to weigh those forecasts against market data, policy signals from the US Federal Reserve, and daily price action. The quarter ahead looks busy, and outcomes will depend on more than one forecast coming true. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture, sitting right on top of the Bull Market Support Band. Throughout past bull cycles, this band has historically served as a crucial support level, with price retesting it during corrections and bouncing off it to continue its upward trend. Why This Level Matters For Bitcoin Uptrend In an X post, full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that Bitcoin is currently sitting directly on top of the Bull Market Support Band. This level has long been regarded as one of the most reliable high-timeframe momentum indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Gravestone Doji – $120,000 Hangs In Balance Daan Crypto Trades noted that while Bitcoin has seen short-term consolidation at or even slightly below this band, it has never experienced a prolonged detachment for more than a week or two during a bull market. The broader market structure remains intact as long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the larger timeframe. However, any subsequent dips that occur while this structural integrity is maintained are generally seen as areas of interest and potential buying opportunities for investors. The Role Of Liquidity In Driving Bitcoin’s Next Move Bitcoin is showing the first bearish divergence against the Global M2 Money supply since the cycle lows began, and signaling a potential slowdown in momentum. According to Saint Pump, a market expert, a one-month liquidity pullback is expected in late September, coinciding with the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipated rate cut amid job weakness. Related Reading: Analyst Says All Bitcoin Price Uptrend Are Duds Unless This Happens This confluence of a bearish technical signal and a macroeconomic liquidity event suggests that BTC’s recent poor price action since July and divergence with global liquidity will continue leading to a period of choppy price action. In addition, there will be volatile trading until global liquidity conditions improve in late October. Adding to the short-term pressure, October also marks the expected end of the four-year cycle, which historically brings additional selling activity. Despite these headwinds, no major cycle top or euphoria signals are evident. Saint Pump noted that the Trump Administration may unleash a monetary bazooka through a Fed takeover to stimulate the economy ahead of the midterms. As a result, this cycle could extend into late 2026, until Inflation fears resurface once the Fed overdoes it due to political pressures. From a technical perspective, the best bid scenario in a sell-off lies between $93,000 and $98,000, aligning with a retest of the weekly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has sustained the bull trend since last year. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader uptrend remains structurally sound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Peter Schiff has renewed his critique of Bitcoin as Tom Lee of Fundstrat pushes a headline-grabbing $200,000 price target for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Why $50 XRP By December 2025 Isn’t ‘Hopium’ If ETFs Get Greenlight: Analyst According to reports, Lee says the market’s recent weakness is tied to the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates, while Schiff points to gold’s recent rally as a warning sign for Bitcoin. Schiff Points To Gold’s Rally In an X post, the gold bug Schiff highlighted that the yellow metal rose 10% over the last two months and reached a new high of $3,620. “Markets are forward-looking. That’s why gold is up 10% in advance of coming rate cuts,” he said, arguing that gold’s move shows traders expect easier policy ahead. Bitcoin, he added, has not followed gold’s lead, and that gap worries him. Permabull @fundstrat forecast Bitcoin will hit $200K by year-end, as Bitcoin is sensitive to Fed rate cuts. He said the Fed’s two-month pause is why Bitcoin hasn’t rallied over that time period. But gold rallied 10% during those two months, hitting a record $3,620 as he spoke. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 8, 2025 Lee’s $200,000 Call And His Explanation Tom Lee remains optimistic. He has argued that the influx of institutional investors gives Bitcoin new “counter-cyclical characteristics,” and that bigger players could push prices much higher over time. Based on reports, Lee blames the recent underperformance on the Fed and keeps the $200,000 figure in public view. His stance continues to make him one of Wall Street’s best-known permabulls – persons who maintain a perpetually optimistic outlook. Market Odds And Traders’ View Polymarket users appear unconvinced by Lee’s timetable. At press time, markets show an 8% chance of Bitcoin reaching $200k this year. The same markets place roughly an 8% chance on Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 by the end of 2025. Those odds suggest bettors are split and that headline targets are being treated with skepticism. Source: Polymarket A Broader Performance Check Schiff has also pointed to longer-term measurements. He noted that Bitcoin is down 16% against gold over the past four years, even though the cryptocurrency has posted strong gains versus the US dollar in that span. He warned that when “more air” comes out of the Bitcoin bubble, the four-year returns may look weak. The idea that the old four-year cycle tied to halvings may be fading was raised by other analysts in recent commentary, and that debate is ongoing. Related Reading: Tighter Premiums Put Crypto Treasuries On Risky Road, According To NYDIG What Comes Next For Bitcoin Schiff went further by saying Bitcoin is more likely to sink below $100k than to reach $200k, putting a cautious spin on the outlook. This view makes clear where Schiff stands: he treats gold’s rally as a forward signal about future policy and believes Bitcoin’s lag is not a short-term quirk but a structural concern. Lee’s counter is that institutional flows could change how Bitcoin moves over time. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
The U.S. jobs report revealed only 22,000 job additions in August, far below expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Still, BTC remains below $112K.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek is making a bold prediction: the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut could ignite a massive crypto rally in late 2025. In an interview with Bloomberg, Marszalek argued that a September 17 rate cut would inject much-needed liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and fuel demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and …
A weaker US jobs market has strengthened the case for easing, and investors are seeking protection in hard assets, some opine.
Bitcoin slipped on Friday after a brief run higher, and some market watchers say the move could force a policymaker response. Based on reports, Bitcoin was trading at about $113,240, down 3.4%, on August 22, 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Stop For 2025? $175,000, According To SOL Strategies Boss Crypto Analyst Flags Inflation Risk According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, the simultaneous rise in equities, Treasury yields, gold and Bitcoin looks unstable and could push inflation higher if it continues. He warned that stronger risk-asset gains might nudge the Federal Reserve toward tighter policy, not easing, which would be the opposite of calls from US President Donald Trump to loosen policy this year. Reports have noted that Bitcoin fell from a local high of $120,050 to roughly $112,990, a decline of about 6% since last Friday, and that the crypto lost just over $1,000 in a few hours during the move. A Lot May Be Riding on Bitcoin/Gold Going Up – The simultaneous rise in equities, Treasury bond yields, Bitcoin and gold appears unsustainable, and at a minimum due for some volatility post-summer doldrums. A scenario my graphic highlights is that if risk assets keep rising,… pic.twitter.com/7xCLbw7DXy — Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) August 22, 2025 Price Action And Market Moves Markets reacted quickly. Some traders booked profits after the spike, and others trimmed positions ahead of key Fed commentary at Jackson Hole. The pullback was not extreme by historical standards, but it shows how quickly sentiment can change. Markets have been watching Treasury yields and Powell’s comments closely, since those signals help decide whether risk assets will keep drawing fresh money. What The Numbers Mean For Investors Based on reports, the recent fall understates how much volatility persists in crypto. A 6% move in a few days is normal for Bitcoin’s history, yet it still matters for big holders and funds that move money in and out quickly. Some support levels around $112,000 were being watched by crypto tacticians, while traders said downside protection would likely be tested if yields continue higher. Related Reading: Panic Or Profit? Analyst Says XRP Below $3 Is A ‘Massive Blessing’ Analysts’ Price Targets Analysts are split on where Bitcoin goes from here. Bernstein strategists, for example, have floated a scenario where Bitcoin could climb as high as $200,000 within months if certain on-chain flows and institutional demand persist. Other market players see a more modest path, with some guessing at a peak near $140,000 to $150,000 as the most realistic upside in the near term. At the same time, veteran voices like McGlone warn that downside scenarios remain possible if the Fed tightens. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman has called for banks to embrace blockchain technology or risk losing relevance. At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium on Aug. 19, Bowman emphasized that regulators and banks must adopt a more proactive approach to the crypto industry. She pointed out that integrating these new innovative technologies would be crucial […]
The post Fed warns banks could become irrelevant if they ignore blockchain adoption now appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The crypto and stock markets are moving cautiously this week as investors await key signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bitcoin has slipped to around $113,350, down 2% in a day and nearly 9% from its recent peak, while Ethereum trades near $4,156 with double-digit weekly losses. Altcoins like XRP and Cardano are also under …
Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may depend less on halving lore and more on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market note on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger argued that the cycle’s duration will be set by the Federal Reserve’s leadership change—specifically, who President Trump nominates to replace Jerome Powell—rather than by any fixed four-year pattern. “I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell,” Krüger wrote. Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair Krüger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it “remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.” In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic. Related Reading: Crypto Braces For Impact As JPow’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms The nomination clock is visible. Powell’s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the White House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or four” names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market’s focus on how dovish—or not—the next chair might be. In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled during the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.” Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 zone of recent peaks. Krüger also highlights that “BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,” a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope, Analyst Predicts Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, slow ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has sat near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Krüger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback—a classic sign of froth leaking out—while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips. The macro through-line is straightforward: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will begin discounting a looser stance well before the first policy move, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent guidance) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade at the margin. For now, the immediate catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—while price trades between well-defined levels with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may well be a name. At press time, BTC traded at $115,683. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In a bold move that could reshape the crypto landscape, the US President is reportedly preparing to sign an executive order aimed at protecting access to BTC and digital assets. If enacted, this landmark policy would redefine the relationship between digital assets and the US financial system. Bitcoin Steps Into The Political Spotlight Bitcoin has officially entered the hall of power, as the US President Donald Trump is preparing to sign an executive order that would prohibit banks from refusing services to Bitcoin and crypto-related companies. This move signals a major shift in the US policy and ends years of financial censorship against the crypto industry. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With Massive Third-Largest Acquisition According to a crypto enthusiast, Henry, with this impending order, the crypto industry appears to be getting serious respect from the White House, after years of regulatory uncertainty and political pushback. In the coming days, Henry suggests that positive developments are on the horizon, especially involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This kind of attention from the highest levels of government could shake up the entire market and trigger a wave of institutional interest and volatility. If this happens, it would be more than just good news, as it would be a game-changer. Not only could it act as a major catalyst for BTC, it would also open the doors for crypto businesses to access traditional financial services, which they need for growth. Bitcoin is gaining recognition among the highest forms of governments across the world. Reports show that the Indonesian Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka is exploring the possibility of adding Bitcoin to the country’s national reserves, according to a recent post from Bitcoin Indonesia. The move represents a bold step toward integrating digital assets into sovereign finance. If implemented, Indonesia would become one of the first major Asian economies to formally recognize BTC as a reserve asset, signaling a shift in how governments hedge against inflation, currency risk, and geopolitical uncertainty. The global spotlight is increasingly turning to crypto adoption at the state level. The Bhutan Government Moves $59.2 Million In BTC Several countries are engaging BTC globally at a rapid rate. In a significant and quietly executed move, the government of Bhutan has transferred 517 BTC, valued at approximately $59.2 million, to a new cryptocurrency wallet. This substantial transfer of BTC, reported by Crypto Rover on X, has sparked speculation among analysts and the crypto community about potential custody changes or strategic moves. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s $115K Struggle: Is a Deeper Drop on the Horizon? The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has consistently maintained a low profile in the world of sovereign crypto holdings, making it one of the most discreet yet active state players in the digital asset space. This recent movement may indicate a shift toward enhanced security and measures in BTC reserves. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
With weak job data, growing political pressure, and Fed hinting policy shifts, traders are now betting big on rate cuts in September. Markets are already rebounding and this could be the beginning of a major Q4 recovery. Is the Fed finally ready to pivot? Here’s what to expect. September Rate Cut Odds Near 90% Fed …
President Donald Trump sharply criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him “too late” and a “stubborn moron,” and urged an immediate, significant cut in interest rates. He argued that quick action is necessary, and if Powell refuses, the Federal Reserve Board should step in to make the needed cuts. Trump’s remarks highlight the mounting …
The Federal Reserve has decided to keep its key interest rate steady at around 4.25%-4.5%, holding firm despite pressure from President Trump to cut rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank might have lowered rates further, but Trump’s broad tariffs created economic uncertainty, making officials more cautious about additional rate changes. Fed Holds …
The U.S. Federal Reserve remains under intense political pressure ahead of its July 30 meeting, with President Trump and some of his appointees openly calling for rate cuts despite sticky inflation.
The next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 19, 2025, and all eyes are on the central bank’s decision. Veteran trader Matthew Dixon has made a sensational claim on X, stating there’s a 96.9% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, and zero probability of a rate hike. Dixon also noted …
A single-word reply on X from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R‑FL) — “Confirmed” — rocketed through the crypto markets early Wednesday, convincing a growing chorus of traders that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure is measured in days, not months. Within minutes of Luna’s affirmation that “Jerome Powell is going to be fired. Firing is imminent,” prediction‑market odds of his ouster on Polymarket leapt to 26 percent, the highest reading this year, up from 16 percent only 24 hours earlier. A White‑House‑backed search is already under way. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an on‑record Bloomberg interview, acknowledged “a formal process that’s already starting” to identify Powell’s successor, adding that “there are a lot of good candidates inside and outside the Federal Reserve.” Related Reading: ‘Crypto Week’ Takes A Hit: US House Fails To Advance Key Acts President Donald Trump underscored the point during an impromptu press gaggle, repeating last week’s warning that “the renovations at the central bank were a fireable offense.” Those renovations — an over‑budget, $2.5 billion overhaul of the Fed’s historic Eccles Building — have become the legal pretext for dismissal, with Trump allies alleging “inefficiency” and “neglect of duty,” two of the three causes for removal spelled out in the Federal Reserve Act. Powell has asked the Fed’s inspector general to reopen its review of the project. Notably, Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency head and a longtime Powell critic, confirmed the rumors to his followers on X: “I heard from a very credible, bipartisan source, today, that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. This maps with both reports and also the talk in DC.” Crypto Markets Sense A Massive Bull Run The Bitcoin and crypto prices haven’t shown any reaction to the rumor yet. After piercing $123,000 on Monday, BTC is still 4.5 percent below the record high. The entire crypto market seems to be in a wait-and-see position. However, long-term, the implication could be profound for the crypto markets. “I cannot think of a more bullish catalyst for Bitcoin in the past five years than the complete and utter humiliation of Jerome Powell,” wrote macro commentator Julian Figueroa, pointing to what he called the “façade” of central‑bank independence collapsing in real time. Related Reading: Happy Ending: Crypto Hacker Returns Funds From $42 Million GMX Exploit Long‑time trader Byzantine General echoed the ambivalence: “Powell was actually a great Fed chair. But… if he resigns then it’s very likely that whoever comes next will lower rates, which is bullish for our cryptographic currencies.” Should President Trump succeed in replacing Powell with a more accommodating successor—one prepared to deliver the “three‑percentage‑point” rate cut he has publicly demanded—the Federal Reserve would likely be forced to shelve its balance‑sheet runoff precisely as Washington ramps up fresh fiscal stimulus. That synchronous pivot away from quantitative tightening would flip the liquidity regime from drain to deluge, recreating the macro backdrop that powered the crypto market’s 2020‑21 vertical ascent and positioning it for the next major bull run. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.68 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Institutional flows remained strong. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged their ninth consecutive day of net inflows, with $403 million added on Tuesday.
The liquidity engine that has supported risk assets, including Bitcoin, since the beginning of 2025 is now shifting into reverse. According to macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets), the six-month upswing in Federal Reserve liquidity has ended, and a potentially destabilizing wave of debt issuance by the US Treasury is about to begin. In a post published on X late Sunday, Tomas warned: “ Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall… The Fed liquidity upswing that began on January 1 2025 is now over.” Bitcoin Enters Danger Zone The catalyst behind this reversal is the recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase passed by Congress last week. That legislative decision gives the Treasury Department the green light to aggressively rebuild its cash balance at the Federal Reserve—known as the Treasury General Account (TGA)—which had been intentionally drained to inject liquidity into the system during the first half of the year. “The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was reached last week ($5 trillion raise). This means the Government will start to flood the market with new debt to ‘refill’ the TGA (liquidity drain),” Tomas wrote. He emphasized that the refill target is currently set at $850 billion, up from recent levels around $350 billion, implying roughly $500 billion in liquidity will be removed from the system in the coming months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Back To ‘Very Bullish’ — What This Means The implications for Bitcoin are stark. Risk assets have historically benefited from rising dollar liquidity—particularly in the context of elevated ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and a weakening US dollar. But that backdrop is now shifting. As Tomas put it, “All else being equal, this TGA rebuild process should be bullish for the US dollar.” A strengthening dollar, when coupled with falling bank reserves, is generally a bearish environment for Bitcoin. The pressure on liquidity won’t necessarily come all at once, but the mechanics are clear. Treasury will issue large volumes of new short-term debt—primarily T-bills—to finance the TGA refill. This issuance will compete with other dollar-denominated assets for funding, draining cash out of banks and money markets. Tomas notes that this dynamic could be softened if money market funds rotate their cash out of the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, which still holds about $214 billion. “It’s possible that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could lower the target level, meaning less of a refill,” he adds. “I’d expect we may see a lot of T-bill issuance, which could tempt some of the remaining $214bn left in the Reverse Repo to leave the facility (liquidity injection) and lessen any negative impact of the TGA refill.” Still, even with some reallocation from RRP, Tomas expects the overall effect to reduce reserve balances—bank reserves as a percentage of GDP are likely to fall below 10%, he estimates. While this is not as dire as the 7% level reached in 2019 (which triggered the repo crisis), it represents a sharp tightening compared to the first half of this year. “There could be some funding stress around the end of September (end-of-quarter),” Tomas cautioned. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Is A Trap—Analyst Predicts Pain Before $160,000 Surge Bitcoin’s performance has coincided with the exact window Tomas outlines as a liquidity upswing. As documented, Bitcoin’s price has closely tracked the direction of aggregate G5 central bank balance sheets and the level of US bank reserves. When those reserves shrink—especially in the face of stronger Treasury issuance and a rebounding dollar—Bitcoin has historically struggled to sustain upside momentum. This concern is compounded by Tomas’s warning that speculative short positioning against the dollar has reached extremes. “Back in January, I was shouting about a fall in the dollar. Now everybody and their mothers are bearish on the dollar, and positioning is massively short across the board. It’s time for, at the very least, an upward correction/consolidation for the US dollar, in my opinion.” Such a reversal in the dollar would mark a critical macro headwind for Bitcoin. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmly negative. In environments where the dollar strengthens—especially when driven by tightening liquidity—Bitcoin has rarely outperformed. The next several weeks will be critical. If Treasury proceeds with aggressive issuance and market participants demand higher yields, liquidity could tighten faster than anticipated. While Tomas does leave open the possibility that Secretary Bessent may adjust the TGA target downward, the baseline scenario remains a $500 billion net liquidity drain—directly reversing the conditions that allowed Bitcoin to surge. At press time, BTC traded at $108,148. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin held steady Friday as traders braced for a potential shake-up at the Federal Reserve. United States President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a move that could shift the central bank’s approach to interest rates and market liquidity. The Dow Jones climbed more than 300 points midweek, and the ripple reached the crypto market too—Bitcoin nudged higher to around 106,950 before easing slightly. Related Reading: Double Win: Dogwifhat Jumps 24% Alongside Bitcoin’s $107K Push Markets are reading this as a signal. If Powell is pushed out in favor of someone more open to cutting rates, risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit. The US dollar slipped to a three-year low, and bond yields retreated, adding to the sense that easier money may be coming. For crypto investors, this is a setup worth watching. The #USD fell to a three-year low on intensifying speculation that President Trump could soon nominate a new Fed Chair to replace Powell after his term ends next May, a development that could render him a lame duck writes @johnjhardy in today’s #forex update.… — Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) June 26, 2025 Trump Moves Toward Possible Fed Overhaul Reports from multiple outlets say Trump is seriously considering replacing Powell before his term ends in 2026. Though no official announcement has been made, sources suggest Trump has discussed potential successors with advisors. His criticism of Powell’s policies isn’t new, but the recent rise in inflation concerns and election-year pressure may be accelerating the timeline. The market response was immediate. Traders began to price in a more dovish Fed policy, which generally means lower interest rates and increased liquidity. That would be good news for crypto, which has languished under tighter monetary conditions throughout the last year. Bitcoin, which is often used as a hedge against fiat debasement, likes to rally when the dollar declines and rates come down. Bitcoin Price Reacts With Caution Bitcoin was trading at 106,950 Friday, with a daily high of 107,250 and a low of 106,145. It wasn’t a breakout, but it was a clear sign of rising interest. Ethereum and other top coins saw similar quiet moves upward. Traders are treading carefully, knowing that talk of replacing the Fed chair is one thing, but actually doing it is another. Stocks Lead The Way, Crypto Follows The bullish mood started with equities. The Dow surged more than 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed higher. Tech stocks led the rally, pushed by falling Treasury yields and hopes that rate hikes are off the table for now. That optimism spilled into crypto markets, where risk sentiment plays a big role. Related Reading: TRUMP Token In Trouble? Over $4 Million Liquidity Exit Sparks Crash Fears Crypto Market Eyes Washington There’s still a lot of uncertainty. Powell is in office, and no formal replacement has been named. But the fact that President Trump is entertaining the idea is already moving markets. Crypto investors are especially sensitive to changes in the macro outlook, and this could be a key one. Featured image from Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price surge above $106,000 this week has reignited bullish sentiment across the market, with analysts suggesting that the stars are aligning for a rally to a new all-time high. From shifting geopolitical tensions to a major regulatory pivot in the United States (US), multiple macroeconomic factors appear to be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive move. Ceasefire And Rate Cut Buzz Fuel Bitcoin Price Optimism Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price briefly slipped, triggering over $200 million in leveraged long liquidations. However, this dip proved short-lived as the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded swiftly above $100,000 following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a total ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This sudden de-escalation helped ease global market anxiety, pushing Bitcoin past $106,000 and oil prices sharply down from $77 to under $70. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Reveals Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Feels Different As Crypto Enters ‘New Era’ Simultaneously, Optimism is building that the US Federal Reserve (FED) could begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. Sharing new data by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, crypto analyst CW disclosed that the odds of a FED rate cut have increased to 18.6% by July 30 during the scheduled FOMC meeting. The report reveals that 81.4% of market participants believe the FED to keep rates unchanged at their current level. However, FedWatch’s data indicates growing expectations for a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, with 79% betting on a reduction and only 21.3% anticipating no change. Notably, lower interest rates generally benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and boosting investor sentiment. With geopolitical tensions easing and a possibly looser monetary policy on the horizon, Bitcoin could gain further momentum, potentially climbing to $110,000. Supporting this bullish forecast, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally toward a new ATH of $110,000 following its recent reclaim of the key $103,500 level. Although a retracement to around $102,500 remains possible, Bennett believes that once BTC cleans up support around $103,400, formed during Monday’s expansion, the next move could be parabolic. Regulatory Win Solidify Bitcoin’s Position In TradFi Beyond anticipated rate cuts and ceasefire announcements, the US FED recently made a landmark policy shift that could have profound long-term implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. By removing “reputational risk” as a factor in evaluating crypto firms’ access to bank servicing, the FED is effectively ending a key pillar of Operation Checkpoint 2.0—a campaign that restricted over 30 crypto and fintech companies from traditional financial infrastructure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Deviates From Global M2 Money Supply, Is The Bull Run Over? This recent change clears the way for greater institutional involvement in crypto. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have also followed suit, green-lighting crypto activities for banks and allowing them to participate in the digital assets market without prior approval. Together, these moves mark a regulatory pivot that not only legitimizes the crypto industry but could also accelerate demand and capital inflows into Bitcoin, potentially boosting its already significant valuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill Tuesday left risk-asset traders with a single, binary question: does the most interest-sensitive summer in years end with a crypto breakout or a macro-driven crash? In a prepared statement, Powell stressed that “inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated,” adding that the Federal Open Market Committee is “well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Crypto’s Fate May Be Sealed In July For crypto markets already oscillating on every nuance of policy guidance, the message was clear: the next four weeks—anchored by the 12 July CPI release and the 19 July payrolls report—will decide whether July’s FOMC delivers relief or a reality check. POWELL: WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MEANINGFUL TARIFF INFLATION EFFECTS JUNE, JULY AUGUST POWELL: IF WE DON’T SEE THAT, THAT WOULD LEAD TO CUTTING EARLIER — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 24, 2025 Powell’s caution sits atop a rare public split inside the Board itself. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both Trump appointees, have openly argued that tariff-related price spikes are likely to be “one-time shifts” and therefore should not stand in the way of an early cut—potentially as soon as the 30 July meeting. Seven of their colleagues disagree, laying out projections that keep policy unchanged through December. Powell, for his part, told lawmakers: “I don’t think we need to be in any rush, because the economy is still strong.” Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run Over? Here’s What A Top Trader Just Said Markets reacted by flattening the front end of the curve. Two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.806 percent, while the benchmark 10-year dipped to 4.285 percent—both lows not seen since early May—after the testimony and a surprise cease-fire in the Middle East turbo-charged a global “risk-on” bid. Yet expectations for July remain finely balanced: CME FedWatch shows that traders have whittled the probability of a first 25-basis-point cut to roughly 19%. Crypto traded the cross-currents rather than the headline. Bitcoin, which had cratered to $99,000 on Monday, reclaimed $106,000 by Wednesday morning, mirroring the rebound in equities and high-beta currencies as the dollar slumped on falling yields. Ethereum, meanwhile, held above $2,400—even as Powell’s tone was widely described as hawkish. The broader crypto complex moved in sympathy, with BNB punching through $644 and Solana stabilising near $146. Related Reading: Crypto Gets A Green Light From Spanish Banking Giant Veteran traders on X distilled the stakes. Pseudonymous analyst Byzantine General wrote, “We got a lot of clarity now. All eyes on the July CPI print.” Nic from CoinBureau added that July “is in play—maybe—but nothing’s locked in,” as Powell’s testimony brought no big surprises. Meanwhile, Jim Bianco commented: “Trump appointees Waller and Bowman are suggesting a July cut. Powell is reiterating ‘no.’ Will the July FOMC meeting see at least two dissenters?” For now, Powell’s “watch and wait” stance has bought the FOMC four more weeks of optionality. If July inflation confirms the down-trend, the policy door swings open, and the next rally for crypto could morph into a full-blown melt-up. If it doesn’t, the crash could come just as fast. As Byzantine General put it, the market “got clarity.” What it did not get is comfort. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,892. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin traders aren’t just watching the Fed’s rate decision this week — they’re zeroed in on the dot plot, a chart that could hint at future rate cuts. While the rate is widely expected to stay the same, what Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals next could shake things up. Right now, Bitcoin’s stuck in a …
As the U.S. Federal Reserve gears up for its much-anticipated June meeting, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya shared a bold take on why interest rate cuts may not be coming anytime soon, blaming politics, not the economy. Rate Cuts Look Unlikely… For Now https://t.co/lgG5fx58Hd— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) June 17, 2025 According to prediction market Polymarket, …
Donald Trump has reignited his battle with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “numbskull” and criticizing the Fed for delaying interest rate cuts. Though he says Powell’s job is safe for now, Trump hinted that he may “force something” if rates don’t drop soon. The pressure comes as the 2024 campaign heats up …