After weeks of sideways trading, veteran trader VirtualBacon believes the crypto market is standing on the edge of something massive, a full-blown liquidity-driven rally. He believes the Federal Reserve’s quiet shift toward ending quantitative tightening (QT) marks the beginning of the next major “crypto melt-up”, sending Bitcoin and altcoins soaring once again. Fed’s Liquidity Shift …
The market is confident that the Fed will cut rates. But crypto traders are still waiting for confirmation.
President Donald Trump’s administration has narrowed its search for the next Federal Reserve Chair to five contenders, hinting at a major shift in the central bank’s direction in 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the shortlist will be presented to Trump “right after Thanksgiving,” with a final decision expected before the end of the …
The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs. Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market. US Stock Market’s Record-Breaking Momentum The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance. Related Reading: Analyst Says Understanding This Bitcoin Structure Is Like Having A Superpower The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact. However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength. Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000. When Bitcoin Finally Catches Up The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sees Sharp Decline With Market Crash – Here Are The Numbers Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price dropped again, falling below $108,000 as worries grow over rising tensions between the United States and China. The trade dispute between the two biggest economies has made investors nervous, pushing many to sell risky assets like crypto. Bitcoin Stuck in a Volatile Zone Bitcoin is now trading around $107,800, after briefly jumping to …
A rare confluence of macro catalysts will put risk assets—and by extension crypto—on edge this Friday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will publish the delayed September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 24, even as most federal data remain frozen by the ongoing government shutdown. In a short notice, the agency underscored the exceptionality of the move and added that “no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services.” Crypto Bulls On Alert The timing is unusual on two counts. First, CPI is rarely a Friday print; The Kobeissi Letter noted via X that it would be the first Friday CPI since January 2018. Second, it lands five days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 28–29, compressing the policy-reaction window for the only marquee data. As Adam Kobeissi framed it: “Something unusual is happening this week: On Friday, we are receiving CPI inflation data DURING the US government shutdown… Not only is it 5 days before the October 29th Fed meeting, but it is the first time CPI data will be reported on a Friday since January 2018.” Related Reading: Has The Crypto Treasury Bubble Burst? Tom Lee Thinks So Against that backdrop, crypto strategist Nik Patel captured prevailing risk-tone logic in a morning note via X: with scarce data in a “speech-heavy” week, any print that leans above survey “will be of significance.” He argued: “Would even expect a moderately above consensus inflation print to be welcomed by the markets — I would like to see inflation breakevens bottom out here and turn higher again (and make no mistake the Fed will still be cutting into this and this combination would be bullish risk). Growth, Inflation continues to be what I expect of the next 6 months but right now we’re chewing through a period of fears around both.” The Macro Backdrop To understand why this particular CPI matters for crypto assets, consider the near-term inflation trend and the state of the Fed debate. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August after 0.2% in July; the year-over-year rate accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7%. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY. Back-to-back prints earlier in the summer had suggested headline inflation was stabilizing in the high-2s: June CPI ran at 2.7% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly gain, and July matched 2.7% YoY while core posted its largest monthly increase since January. The August re-acceleration nudged debate away from a straight-line disinflation narrative and toward a more nuanced view—one sensitive to tariffs. Related Reading: Crypto Bulls Smell Blood: SOFR–RRP Spread Hints QT Pivot By October The Fed preview is therefore unusually binary—even if the meeting dates themselves are conventional. The central bank’s October 28–29 gathering is live, with rates markets leaning toward another quarter-point cut, followed by a more contested December. But the data blackout has amplified CPI’s leverage over the policy narrative, which is why a single release can swing the perceived odds of both the October move’s size and the guidance for year-end. All of this collides with crypto’s macro-beta reality. When liquidity expectations improve—via easier financial conditions and falling real yields—large-cap tokens typically outperform; when policy turns cautious, crypto’s duration-like characteristics can cut the other way. That’s why the market is latched onto the shutdown-Friday CPI quirk. The bottom line for crypto participants is straightforward. Friday’s CPI is not just “another inflation print.” It is a rare Friday release, arriving in a data drought five days before an FOMC decision, with PMIs and sentiment hitting hours later. If it cools meaningfully, easing expectations could firm into month-end. If it surprises hot and re-validates August’s firmness, markets may still attempt to spin it as growth-positive—as Nik Patel suggested—so long as the Fed signals it will keep cutting. Either way, by compressing signal and policy into a single news cycle, the shutdown has turned one morning into the fulcrum for October’s crypto narrative. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.71 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
QCP Capital’s latest note says global markets are pivoting from rate sensitivity to liquidity dependence.
The Fed's quantitative tightening, which began in 2022, has reduced the balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion.
Today’s all eyes are on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will speak today at 8:30 a.m. EST. Meanwhile crypto traders are watching closely for hints about future rate cuts. As recent Fed minutes show that 50% of the policymakers expect two more cuts by the end of 2025, a sign of a possible policy …
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Meeting Today as the central bank prepares to release its latest meeting minutes, and crypto markets are closely watching for signals on future policy moves. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also speak today at 8:30 a.m. EST, giving further guidance on the pace of potential rate cuts expected …
Bitcoin’s momentum cooled today as traders turned cautious ahead of key macroeconomic events, including the release of the FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech. The top cryptocurrency, which recently touched a fresh all-time high of $126,200, has slipped over 2% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading near $122,495. This …
What to Expect from Jerome Powell’s Speech Today All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today, as he is set to speak at 12:35 PM ET at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. Investors and crypto traders are watching closely to see whether Powell signals more interest rate cuts or maintains a …
Crypto pundit and legal expert Bill Morgan has humorously predicted that the XRP price will drop below $3. He ironically alluded to a series of bullish developments as what would contribute to the price crash. XRP Price To Crash Below $3 Amid Bullish Developments In an X post, Morgan predicted that the XRP price would drop $3 as he joked about how the altcoin keeps dropping despite bullish developments. This came as he highlighted Ripple’s partnership with DBS and Franklin Templeton to provide a trading and lending solution, powered by tokenized money market funds on the XRP Ledger and in stablecoins such as RLUSD. Related Reading: 8-Year Accumulation Phase Could Catapult XRP Price To $6 Prior to his prediction, the legal expert had also highlighted how the XRP price was down despite “all the good news,” which included the launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF. The ETF became the first U.S. fund to offer investors spot exposure to XRP. Morgan also alluded to the CME Group’s announcement of plans to launch options on XRP futures on October 13. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time this year, a development that was expected to be bullish for the XRP price. However, despite these developments, the crypto pundit noted that the XRP price was still down. He stated that it felt like “Déjà vu,” pointing to the period between 2018 and October 2024. Meanwhile, in another X post, the crypto pundit joked that he was afraid to post more good news over fear that the XRP price may keep declining. This came in reference to Coinbase’s announcement that in just one month, the Solana and XRP Perpetual-Style Futures have scaled exponentially. The crypto exchange announced that these futures have generated over $1.9 billion in notional volume, with more than 1.6 million contracts having been traded. “No Mystery” In Why XRP Is Down Bill Morgan eventually admitted that there is no mystery in why the XRP price is actually, noting that it was because of the Bitcoin price rather than all the “good news” he had earlier alluded to. He further remarked that this overwhelming reality and the most significant factor in the XRP price movement, which is heavily correlated with the BTC price dynamics. The legal expert added that this is consistent with Ripple’s expert evidence in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Major XRP Warning: Last Chance To Get In As Accumulation Balloons Crypto analyst CasiTrades also noted that the XRP price is taking a hit alongside Bitcoin and that because the altcoin failed to make a new local high, the door is open for a deeper correction. She stated that the altcoin could drop to between $2.92 and $2.94 as this aligns with both the .618 retracement and the measured C-wave extension. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $3, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025 has landed—25 basis points on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the last macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can “just focus on the charts,” sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg higher into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a classic altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally… It’s 25 basis points,” he said. “Now the market’s going to digest it.” Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next? The policy backdrop he’s reacting to is straightforward: the FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by a quarter point to 4.00%–4.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the move as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to additional easing this year. The decision drew an 11–1 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger, 50 bps cut—an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish direction—while the Board’s implementation note reset key administered rates effective Sept. 18. Markets read the statement and projections as signaling scope for further cuts into year-end. Related Reading: Crucial Ten Days Ahead For Crypto: Will They Ignite Mega Altcoin Season? From here, Mayne’s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin’s most recent upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects price to “push above the mid-range” toward a range high around $120,000–$121,000, where he will watch for rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence defined by a weekly swing-failure pattern (SFP) and an H12 breaker. If momentum stalls there, he plans to short into a washout to clear out built-up leverage—“HYPE made another all-time high today. PUMP has tripled in the last two weeks… there’s some leverage in the system”—and then buy the dip for what he calls the last parabolic leg of the cycle. “Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long,” he said, adding that a shallow retest in the $110,000–$111,000 area or a deeper sweep of recent lows would both be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive. If, instead, price grinds through the $120,000 s with no signs of exhaustion, Mayne says he has “no problem” flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high once strength is confirmed intraday—an approach that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (“Once this thing broke out aggressively… you’re looking for longs”). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the short he’s eyeing is counter-trend—“a pullback in an uptrend”—and the prime objective remains to position for the next impulsive advance. When Will The Crypto Market Top? Timing-wise, he situates the prospective cycle top in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a pattern in which Bitcoin’s final vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 region is followed by distribution while altcoins reprice higher—the archetypal altseason. “This parabolic leg I think would be the last leg of the bull run,” he said, before outlining notional alt targets consistent with a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000–$7,000, Solana $300–$500, Dogecoin $0.50–$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a last BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH “very quickly,” then Q4 “mania” with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes. Related Reading: December 2024 Crypto Crash Signal Returns As Altcoins Go Wild The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on concepts familiar to discretionary price-action traders. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the trap line at range edges; H12 breakers and order blocks frame high-probability reaction zones; and fair-value gaps guide where liquidity vacuums might fill during a corrective flush. On structure, he insists the weekly trend remains up, so any short is tactical and any deeper dip must resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the former highs to keep the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: “If we spend any significant time back below [the 2024 all-time high], it’s really bad… I’m probably going to reassess my thoughts.” Macro, in Mayne’s view, now recedes to the background. The rate cut may have helped pull forward some September strength—“you could argue… the up move we’ve seen on Bitcoin… is in anticipation of this rate cut”—but with the decision made and Powell hinting there “could be another one… there could be two,” his emphasis is squarely on execution: wait for price to trade into the $120,000s and signal weakness for the clean counter-trend short; or, absent weakness, wait for the breakout continuation and ride it. Either way, he’s explicit about the north star for the coming weeks: “Focus on Bitcoin… Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long… Then altseason.” At press time, BTC traded at $117,176. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Federal Reserve made its first interest rate cut of 2025 yesterday, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The move was striking because core PCE inflation remains above 2.9%, a level at which the Fed hasn’t cut in more than 30 years. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained the shift: “The decision reflects …
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce the start of its interest rate cut cycle tomorrow, but analysts warn the real market driver will not be the cut itself. Instead, attention is on the Dot Plot the Fed’s projection of how many cuts policymakers expect in 2025, 2026, and 2027. “The market will not react …
The cryptocurrency market is holding steady as traders await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision. Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating between $114,600 and $117,100, currently trading in the upper range. Analysts view this setup as constructive, with market sentiment at 68.8%, a level close to peak bullishness. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is respecting …
With the Federal Reserve set to announce policy on Wednesday, September 17, a closely followed trader has laid out a precise, level-by-level playbook for navigating Bitcoin’s next move. In his weekly “Market Outlook #51,” published on September 15, Nik Patel (@cointradernik) for Ostium Research maps out both long and short triggers around a tight cluster of resistance at $117.5k–$120k and a “line in the sand” support at $112k—frameworks he argues should contain BTC’s path through the FOMC and into quarter-end. How To Trade Bitcoin Into September FOMC Nik’s higher-timeframe read starts with a strong weekly close that reclaimed the August open near $115.3k and, crucially, kept price above $112k. “This is now the line in the sand for short-term bullishness,” he writes, warning that a weekly close back below would reopen the route to July’s local lows around $107k and, in a deeper flush, the $99k swing low. To the upside, he highlights $117.5k as the next inflection; a clean acceptance over $120k would set up a swift run at all-time highs, where $123k is the first major cap on the daily timeframe. Into the event, his directional bias remains conditional rather than dogmatic. On the long side, he favors a liquidity sweep early in the week: “On the long side you want to see a sharp flush lower… into $113.5k, where you could layer bids with invalidation on a daily close below $112k,” aiming for a reaction back to $117.5k (TP1) and $119k (TP2) into the FOMC. Related Reading: Analyst Raises Red Flags On Bitcoin Price: Allegations Of Market Manipulation Conversely, if BTC grinds higher without that flush, his short plan is to “short above $119k pre-FOMC,” then “add… on acceptance back below $117.5k post-FOMC,” with $112k as the first target and scope to trail for lower lows if structure weakens. The trader concedes the next couple of weeks are “a lot more unclear… with many variables,” but his base case still envisions “the second half of Q4 will be very strong.” The setup lands as BTC churns around $115k ahead of the decision—a zone multiple analysts have framed as pivotal. Heading into the weekly close, market commentary stressed that a sustained reclaim of ~$114k is a prerequisite for renewed momentum, with one widely tracked technician arguing, “The goal isn’t for Bitcoin to break $117k… The goal is for Bitcoin to reclaim $114k into support first.” Over the weekend and into Tuesday, BTC’s price action remained pinned in that band, keeping both the upside break toward $119k–$123k and the downside sweep into $113.5k–$112k on the table. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Short Squeeze Before Long Trap In October Macro context heightens the stakes. Markets broadly expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25 bps on September 17, shifting the target range from 4.50% to 4.25%—a baseline Nik explicitly builds into his calendar. Yet traders are equally focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance and the updated “dot plot,” which will shape the path for additional cuts into year-end. While a cut is priced, the tone—whether the Fed signals a shallow or accelerated easing path—could be the catalyst that resolves BTC’s tight $114k–$119k coil. Positioning provides further texture to Nik’s plan. He flags three-month annualized basis and the split between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, along with concentrated one-week and one-month liquidation pockets just below spot and above the recent range highs—context for why he prefers either reactive longs on a downside flush or fades into strength near $119k–$120k if derivatives chase the move. The framework leans heavily on acceptance/rejection around well-defined levels rather than attempting to front-run the policy outcome itself. Bottom line: in the Ostium playbook, bulls want a controlled dip that holds $112k on a daily closing basis and then forces a reclaim of $117.5k on the way to $119k–$123k; bears get their best shot if price runs late into $119k–$120k pre-FOMC and then loses $117.5k on the reaction. With BTC glued to the mid-$110ks and the market already bracing for a quarter-point cut, the catalyst may come down to Powell’s nuance. At press time, BTC traded at $115,427. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
For the first time in 2025, the United States Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates while the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs, and according to The Kobeissi Letter, the time has come for an important shift in markets that could usher in the next crypto market bull run. As it stands, record stock valuations, resilient GDP growth, sticky inflation, and cracks are forming in the labor market, leaving the stage open for volatility in traditional markets that could spill over into the next explosive altcoin season. Fed Rate Cuts At Record Valuations Expectations are also high that the Fed will keep lowering rates at the next interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 and through the end of this year. According to a lengthy thread that was posted on the social media platform X, this could have long-term bullish effects on the crypto industry. Related Reading: Altcoin Market Completes Highest Monthly Close Ever: What This Means For Alt Season The Federal Reserve usually cuts rates in the face of economic weakness and depressed equity markets, but this time is different. As noted by The Kobeissi Letter, valuation metrics tracked by Bloomberg show US stocks are more expensive than ever, having surpassed even the 1929 pre-Depression peak and the dot-com bubble. Furthermore, the S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio hit 5.3x in late August, its record level. Despite these extremes, policymakers are expected to cut by at least 25 basis points this week based on weakness in the labor market. History shows that when rate cuts occurred with stocks within 2% of all-time highs, as shown in 2019 and 2024, the S&P 500 delivered strong gains over the following year. This unusual mix could once again amplify capital flows into high-growth assets, including cryptocurrencies, in the last quarter of 2025. A Perfect Time For Altcoins Cutting rates into hot inflation adds liquidity fuel just as investors chase risk assets. That backdrop has always caused powerful surges for Gold, Bitcoin, and other major cryptocurrencies, as the return of these assets thrives when fiat returns come under question. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Sets New 2025 High, What This Means For The Crypto Market As The Kobeissi Letter framed it, the time has come. The Fed’s decision to cut rates with stocks at record highs, amid a 3% GDP growth and hot inflation 110 bps above the Fed’s long-term target, could be the driver of the next altcoin season. Gold and Bitcoin have already been priced in this new era of liquidity, as both are now up by 450% and 105%, respectively, since 2023. The setup is even better for altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Chainlink, and most especially cryptocurrencies involved in the growing AI niche. There could be more immediate-term volatility, but long-term asset owners will benefit the most from the rate cut. However, if the Federal Reserve opts for a slower pace of cuts than markets are currently pricing in, the disappointment could ripple through both equities and cryptocurrencies and cause short-term declines this week. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price is trading near $ 116,000, but it’s struggling to break higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 FOMC meeting. Despite a 4% gain over the past week, the cryptocurrency has yet to surpass its all-time highs. This hesitation has raised doubts about whether momentum is fading as traders wait for clarity …
crypto experts maintain bullish outlook on bitcoin, focusing on impending Fed rate cuts and long-term structural bull run.
The US Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest decision on interest rates. This highly anticipated event has the potential to act as a powerful catalyst for the Bitcoin market, with many analysts and investors speculating that a rate cut could trigger a significant breakout. How A Rate Cut Could Unleash The Next Bitcoin Bull Run The global financial community is entering a crucial week. According to a post on X by crypto commentator Thomas Lauder, in 7 days, the US Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut dollar interest rates, a move that could have far-reaching effects on both traditional finance and crypto markets. Related Reading: $375,000 Bitcoin? Market Veteran Says It’s Closer Than You Think This rate cut could give a strong boost to the price of Bitcoin and other financial assets. Lauder explains that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut would have a direct impact on financial markets by lowering the cost of borrowing and injecting liquidity into the market, a dynamic that has historically benefited Bitcoin and other risk assets. The market’s anticipation is high, as evidenced by predictions on Polymarket, where 83% of bettors are forecasting a 25 basis point cut, and another 14% are betting on an even larger reduction. In the meantime, the market operators are positioning themselves ahead of the news. As a result, Lauder predicts that Bitcoin will experience days of high volatility leading up to the announcement. Why Companies Are Accumulating Bitcoin Relentlessly While the other analyst believes that the coming days will likely see high volatility for BTC as the Fed announces the interest rate cut, notable institutional accumulation is still ongoing. MikeWMunz has explained why certain companies are accumulating Bitcoin at a feverish pace even as their share prices stall. These companies are not weak in lettuce hands, and they are capable of delaying the dopamine hits for when it’s appropriate. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Allocation Climbs As Companies Invest 22% Of Profits: Study However, many of these companies are set to be included in the largest indexes, ensuring they receive steady passive flows as Bitcoin executes its next parabolic move upward. MikeWMunz describes this as a lightning in a bottle, which is a perfect moment of strategy, market mechanics, and timing. Furthermore, he pointed out that the shortsighted views and lack of vision of many investors prevent them from understanding this inevitable outcome. The groundwork and foundation for a new financial era is being built right now, and the lack of patience and inability to see this bigger picture is what holds back many investors from realizing the full potential of this shift. “This does not apply to the leaders of these companies, who are pioneering the ships in their respective markets,” he mentioned.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Federal Reserve’s next decision has the markets buzzing, but one Polymarket trader is taking things to another level. Known online as JustWakingUp, the whale has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. It’s a wager that could turn into a staggering $226,000 payout if …
Bitcoin’s tight range near $111K reflects a market bracing for U.S. CPI and the Fed’s September meeting, with prediction markets pricing a cut and traders watching whether $7T in sidelined cash rotates into crypto once volatility returns.
JPMorgan’s US trading desk is cautioning clients that a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 could mark a near-term peak for risk assets rather than a new leg higher—an outcome that would not spare crypto. In a note flagged by desk head Andrew Tyler, the bank writes: “We have concerns that the September 17 Fed meeting which delivers a 25bp cut could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pullback to consider macro data, Fed’s reaction function, potentially stretched positioning, a weaker corporate buyback bid, and waning participation from the Retail investor.” The timing matters. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs September 16–17, with a statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, September 17. That calendar alone has become a catalyst as traders position around both the size of the cut and the tone of the guidance. Related Reading: Crypto Markets Enter Their Most Crucial Macro Week In 2025 Yet Standard Chartered, pointing to a labor market that has cooled far faster than anticipated, now expects the Fed to deliver a 50-basis-point move. “August labor market data has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, similar to what occurred at this time last year,” the bank said, after US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Steve Englander, global head of G10FX research at Standard Chartered, discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting and why he would consider anything less to be a policy error https://t.co/TJQBGIytIm pic.twitter.com/VP2rVusiA5 — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 8, 2025 JPMorgan’s desk is not abandoning its “lower-conviction Tactical Bullish” stance, but it is urging investors to carry insurance into the event. In addition to recommending that equity investors “consider” adding or increasing gold exposure as cut expectations sap the dollar, Tyler’s team spelled out more explicit hedges for a volatility shock: “we like VIX call spreads or VXX longs as a hedge, as well as parts of Defensives.” The macro backdrop has indeed turned more complicated. August payrolls barely grew and prior data were revised down, while the unemployment rate rose to a near four-year high, developments that have hardened expectations for policy easing but also raised the specter of a growth scare. Meanwhile, gold has been screaming higher—printing successive record highs above $3,600/oz—as investors price both easier policy and broader political-economic risk. Those concurrent signals—weakening labor, stronger bullion—frame why a rate cut may not automatically equal “risk-on” for beta. Crypto Faces Volatility Test For crypto, the read-through is two-sided and highly path dependent. On one hand, the same jobs-driven repricing that has juiced gold has also supported bitcoin in recent sessions as traders lean into the idea of easier money and a softer dollar—classic tailwinds for risk assets and for store-of-value narratives alike. Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run: Probability Of Fed Rate Cuts In September Almost At 100% On the other hand, a mechanical “equities down, vol up” impulse around the decision would likely transmit into crypto assets, where cross-asset de-risking and margin unwinds have historically amplified intraday swings. That tension is visible in current coverage: bitcoin has bounced back toward the $112k area alongside rate-cut bets, yet several market observers warn that a run-of-the-mill 25bp move—especially if framed as a “hawkish cut”—may fail to spark a sustained crypto rally. Notably, a “catch-up” 50bp cut, as Standard Chartered projects, would accelerate the compression in real yields and could weaken the dollar at the margin—conditions that have tended to support bitcoin and liquidity-sensitive altcoins when the move is not seen as recessionary triage. Conversely, a smaller or caveated cut could deliver precisely the “sell the news” pattern JPMorgan warns about, with equities and high-beta assets like crypto marking lower first before reassessing the glide path. History is no lodestar—post-cut outcomes have ranged from strong rallies in mid-cycle adjustments to drawdowns when cuts presaged recession—but it does argue for elevated realized volatility around the first step. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $112,739. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to reports, Michael Saylor told viewers that most equity analysts expect Bitcoin to top $150,000 by Christmas. Related Reading: MemeCore Explodes 3,800% For ATH — But Is A Collapse Around The Corner? From a current price of $113,050, that would require an increase of about 35%. There are roughly three months left until December 25. The figures set a clear benchmark for what traders now call the year-end race. Analysts Back A $150,000 Target Saylor tied the call to wider adoption. He said during a CNBC interview more firms adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets and more people learning about the asset will lift demand. Because Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, that demand pressure, he argued, could push prices higher. The tone was confident, and the math was simple: move from $113k to $150,000, an over 30% gain, and the target is met. Tom Lee Puts A Higher Number On The Table Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global, raised the stakes with a $200,000 projection for Christmas 2025. He linked the outlook to macro policy, pointing to the September 17 FOMC meeting as a potential trigger if interest rates are cut. Lee also suggested that gains in small-cap crypto tokens could lift Ethereum, because ETH has often tracked broader risk appetite. A move to $200,000 from $113 would be much larger — roughly a 70% increase — and would likely need strong macro support. At the same time, seasonal patterns matter: Bitcoin often sees strong performance in the fourth quarter. Those two factors together are why some analysts are comfortable with bold targets. But timing is tight. Three months is a short window for large moves, and unexpected events could derail the path. Odds, Research Firms And Other Voices Other voices have weighed in. Canary CEO Steven McClurg put the odds of reaching $150,000 this year at 50%. Large banks like Standard Chartered have even flagged $200,000 as a possible level for 2025. These projections show a clustering of bullish views, though they span different timeframes and rely on different assumptions. Related Reading: Altcoins Feel The Pinch As Crypto Market Sentiment Sours Market Reaction And Caveats Bitcoin was up about 1% in the past 24 hours. Price moves of 30% to 70% in short stretches have happened before in crypto, but they are not commonplace and they bring big risks. Traders and investors will have to weigh those forecasts against market data, policy signals from the US Federal Reserve, and daily price action. The quarter ahead looks busy, and outcomes will depend on more than one forecast coming true. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture, sitting right on top of the Bull Market Support Band. Throughout past bull cycles, this band has historically served as a crucial support level, with price retesting it during corrections and bouncing off it to continue its upward trend. Why This Level Matters For Bitcoin Uptrend In an X post, full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that Bitcoin is currently sitting directly on top of the Bull Market Support Band. This level has long been regarded as one of the most reliable high-timeframe momentum indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Gravestone Doji – $120,000 Hangs In Balance Daan Crypto Trades noted that while Bitcoin has seen short-term consolidation at or even slightly below this band, it has never experienced a prolonged detachment for more than a week or two during a bull market. The broader market structure remains intact as long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the larger timeframe. However, any subsequent dips that occur while this structural integrity is maintained are generally seen as areas of interest and potential buying opportunities for investors. The Role Of Liquidity In Driving Bitcoin’s Next Move Bitcoin is showing the first bearish divergence against the Global M2 Money supply since the cycle lows began, and signaling a potential slowdown in momentum. According to Saint Pump, a market expert, a one-month liquidity pullback is expected in late September, coinciding with the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipated rate cut amid job weakness. Related Reading: Analyst Says All Bitcoin Price Uptrend Are Duds Unless This Happens This confluence of a bearish technical signal and a macroeconomic liquidity event suggests that BTC’s recent poor price action since July and divergence with global liquidity will continue leading to a period of choppy price action. In addition, there will be volatile trading until global liquidity conditions improve in late October. Adding to the short-term pressure, October also marks the expected end of the four-year cycle, which historically brings additional selling activity. Despite these headwinds, no major cycle top or euphoria signals are evident. Saint Pump noted that the Trump Administration may unleash a monetary bazooka through a Fed takeover to stimulate the economy ahead of the midterms. As a result, this cycle could extend into late 2026, until Inflation fears resurface once the Fed overdoes it due to political pressures. From a technical perspective, the best bid scenario in a sell-off lies between $93,000 and $98,000, aligning with a retest of the weekly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has sustained the bull trend since last year. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader uptrend remains structurally sound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Peter Schiff has renewed his critique of Bitcoin as Tom Lee of Fundstrat pushes a headline-grabbing $200,000 price target for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Why $50 XRP By December 2025 Isn’t ‘Hopium’ If ETFs Get Greenlight: Analyst According to reports, Lee says the market’s recent weakness is tied to the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates, while Schiff points to gold’s recent rally as a warning sign for Bitcoin. Schiff Points To Gold’s Rally In an X post, the gold bug Schiff highlighted that the yellow metal rose 10% over the last two months and reached a new high of $3,620. “Markets are forward-looking. That’s why gold is up 10% in advance of coming rate cuts,” he said, arguing that gold’s move shows traders expect easier policy ahead. Bitcoin, he added, has not followed gold’s lead, and that gap worries him. Permabull @fundstrat forecast Bitcoin will hit $200K by year-end, as Bitcoin is sensitive to Fed rate cuts. He said the Fed’s two-month pause is why Bitcoin hasn’t rallied over that time period. But gold rallied 10% during those two months, hitting a record $3,620 as he spoke. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 8, 2025 Lee’s $200,000 Call And His Explanation Tom Lee remains optimistic. He has argued that the influx of institutional investors gives Bitcoin new “counter-cyclical characteristics,” and that bigger players could push prices much higher over time. Based on reports, Lee blames the recent underperformance on the Fed and keeps the $200,000 figure in public view. His stance continues to make him one of Wall Street’s best-known permabulls – persons who maintain a perpetually optimistic outlook. Market Odds And Traders’ View Polymarket users appear unconvinced by Lee’s timetable. At press time, markets show an 8% chance of Bitcoin reaching $200k this year. The same markets place roughly an 8% chance on Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 by the end of 2025. Those odds suggest bettors are split and that headline targets are being treated with skepticism. Source: Polymarket A Broader Performance Check Schiff has also pointed to longer-term measurements. He noted that Bitcoin is down 16% against gold over the past four years, even though the cryptocurrency has posted strong gains versus the US dollar in that span. He warned that when “more air” comes out of the Bitcoin bubble, the four-year returns may look weak. The idea that the old four-year cycle tied to halvings may be fading was raised by other analysts in recent commentary, and that debate is ongoing. Related Reading: Tighter Premiums Put Crypto Treasuries On Risky Road, According To NYDIG What Comes Next For Bitcoin Schiff went further by saying Bitcoin is more likely to sink below $100k than to reach $200k, putting a cautious spin on the outlook. This view makes clear where Schiff stands: he treats gold’s rally as a forward signal about future policy and believes Bitcoin’s lag is not a short-term quirk but a structural concern. Lee’s counter is that institutional flows could change how Bitcoin moves over time. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
The U.S. jobs report revealed only 22,000 job additions in August, far below expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Still, BTC remains below $112K.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek is making a bold prediction: the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut could ignite a massive crypto rally in late 2025. In an interview with Bloomberg, Marszalek argued that a September 17 rate cut would inject much-needed liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and fuel demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and …