The liquidity engine that has supported risk assets, including Bitcoin, since the beginning of 2025 is now shifting into reverse. According to macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets), the six-month upswing in Federal Reserve liquidity has ended, and a potentially destabilizing wave of debt issuance by the US Treasury is about to begin. In a post published on X late Sunday, Tomas warned: “ Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall… The Fed liquidity upswing that began on January 1 2025 is now over.” Bitcoin Enters Danger Zone The catalyst behind this reversal is the recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase passed by Congress last week. That legislative decision gives the Treasury Department the green light to aggressively rebuild its cash balance at the Federal Reserve—known as the Treasury General Account (TGA)—which had been intentionally drained to inject liquidity into the system during the first half of the year. “The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was reached last week ($5 trillion raise). This means the Government will start to flood the market with new debt to ‘refill’ the TGA (liquidity drain),” Tomas wrote. He emphasized that the refill target is currently set at $850 billion, up from recent levels around $350 billion, implying roughly $500 billion in liquidity will be removed from the system in the coming months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Back To ‘Very Bullish’ — What This Means The implications for Bitcoin are stark. Risk assets have historically benefited from rising dollar liquidity—particularly in the context of elevated ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and a weakening US dollar. But that backdrop is now shifting. As Tomas put it, “All else being equal, this TGA rebuild process should be bullish for the US dollar.” A strengthening dollar, when coupled with falling bank reserves, is generally a bearish environment for Bitcoin. The pressure on liquidity won’t necessarily come all at once, but the mechanics are clear. Treasury will issue large volumes of new short-term debt—primarily T-bills—to finance the TGA refill. This issuance will compete with other dollar-denominated assets for funding, draining cash out of banks and money markets. Tomas notes that this dynamic could be softened if money market funds rotate their cash out of the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, which still holds about $214 billion. “It’s possible that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could lower the target level, meaning less of a refill,” he adds. “I’d expect we may see a lot of T-bill issuance, which could tempt some of the remaining $214bn left in the Reverse Repo to leave the facility (liquidity injection) and lessen any negative impact of the TGA refill.” Still, even with some reallocation from RRP, Tomas expects the overall effect to reduce reserve balances—bank reserves as a percentage of GDP are likely to fall below 10%, he estimates. While this is not as dire as the 7% level reached in 2019 (which triggered the repo crisis), it represents a sharp tightening compared to the first half of this year. “There could be some funding stress around the end of September (end-of-quarter),” Tomas cautioned. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Is A Trap—Analyst Predicts Pain Before $160,000 Surge Bitcoin’s performance has coincided with the exact window Tomas outlines as a liquidity upswing. As documented, Bitcoin’s price has closely tracked the direction of aggregate G5 central bank balance sheets and the level of US bank reserves. When those reserves shrink—especially in the face of stronger Treasury issuance and a rebounding dollar—Bitcoin has historically struggled to sustain upside momentum. This concern is compounded by Tomas’s warning that speculative short positioning against the dollar has reached extremes. “Back in January, I was shouting about a fall in the dollar. Now everybody and their mothers are bearish on the dollar, and positioning is massively short across the board. It’s time for, at the very least, an upward correction/consolidation for the US dollar, in my opinion.” Such a reversal in the dollar would mark a critical macro headwind for Bitcoin. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmly negative. In environments where the dollar strengthens—especially when driven by tightening liquidity—Bitcoin has rarely outperformed. The next several weeks will be critical. If Treasury proceeds with aggressive issuance and market participants demand higher yields, liquidity could tighten faster than anticipated. While Tomas does leave open the possibility that Secretary Bessent may adjust the TGA target downward, the baseline scenario remains a $500 billion net liquidity drain—directly reversing the conditions that allowed Bitcoin to surge. At press time, BTC traded at $108,148. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin held steady Friday as traders braced for a potential shake-up at the Federal Reserve. United States President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a move that could shift the central bank’s approach to interest rates and market liquidity. The Dow Jones climbed more than 300 points midweek, and the ripple reached the crypto market too—Bitcoin nudged higher to around 106,950 before easing slightly. Related Reading: Double Win: Dogwifhat Jumps 24% Alongside Bitcoin’s $107K Push Markets are reading this as a signal. If Powell is pushed out in favor of someone more open to cutting rates, risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit. The US dollar slipped to a three-year low, and bond yields retreated, adding to the sense that easier money may be coming. For crypto investors, this is a setup worth watching. The #USD fell to a three-year low on intensifying speculation that President Trump could soon nominate a new Fed Chair to replace Powell after his term ends next May, a development that could render him a lame duck writes @johnjhardy in today’s #forex update.… — Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) June 26, 2025 Trump Moves Toward Possible Fed Overhaul Reports from multiple outlets say Trump is seriously considering replacing Powell before his term ends in 2026. Though no official announcement has been made, sources suggest Trump has discussed potential successors with advisors. His criticism of Powell’s policies isn’t new, but the recent rise in inflation concerns and election-year pressure may be accelerating the timeline. The market response was immediate. Traders began to price in a more dovish Fed policy, which generally means lower interest rates and increased liquidity. That would be good news for crypto, which has languished under tighter monetary conditions throughout the last year. Bitcoin, which is often used as a hedge against fiat debasement, likes to rally when the dollar declines and rates come down. Bitcoin Price Reacts With Caution Bitcoin was trading at 106,950 Friday, with a daily high of 107,250 and a low of 106,145. It wasn’t a breakout, but it was a clear sign of rising interest. Ethereum and other top coins saw similar quiet moves upward. Traders are treading carefully, knowing that talk of replacing the Fed chair is one thing, but actually doing it is another. Stocks Lead The Way, Crypto Follows The bullish mood started with equities. The Dow surged more than 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed higher. Tech stocks led the rally, pushed by falling Treasury yields and hopes that rate hikes are off the table for now. That optimism spilled into crypto markets, where risk sentiment plays a big role. Related Reading: TRUMP Token In Trouble? Over $4 Million Liquidity Exit Sparks Crash Fears Crypto Market Eyes Washington There’s still a lot of uncertainty. Powell is in office, and no formal replacement has been named. But the fact that President Trump is entertaining the idea is already moving markets. Crypto investors are especially sensitive to changes in the macro outlook, and this could be a key one. Featured image from Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price surge above $106,000 this week has reignited bullish sentiment across the market, with analysts suggesting that the stars are aligning for a rally to a new all-time high. From shifting geopolitical tensions to a major regulatory pivot in the United States (US), multiple macroeconomic factors appear to be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive move. Ceasefire And Rate Cut Buzz Fuel Bitcoin Price Optimism Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price briefly slipped, triggering over $200 million in leveraged long liquidations. However, this dip proved short-lived as the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded swiftly above $100,000 following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a total ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This sudden de-escalation helped ease global market anxiety, pushing Bitcoin past $106,000 and oil prices sharply down from $77 to under $70. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Reveals Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Feels Different As Crypto Enters ‘New Era’ Simultaneously, Optimism is building that the US Federal Reserve (FED) could begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. Sharing new data by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, crypto analyst CW disclosed that the odds of a FED rate cut have increased to 18.6% by July 30 during the scheduled FOMC meeting. The report reveals that 81.4% of market participants believe the FED to keep rates unchanged at their current level. However, FedWatch’s data indicates growing expectations for a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, with 79% betting on a reduction and only 21.3% anticipating no change. Notably, lower interest rates generally benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and boosting investor sentiment. With geopolitical tensions easing and a possibly looser monetary policy on the horizon, Bitcoin could gain further momentum, potentially climbing to $110,000. Supporting this bullish forecast, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally toward a new ATH of $110,000 following its recent reclaim of the key $103,500 level. Although a retracement to around $102,500 remains possible, Bennett believes that once BTC cleans up support around $103,400, formed during Monday’s expansion, the next move could be parabolic. Regulatory Win Solidify Bitcoin’s Position In TradFi Beyond anticipated rate cuts and ceasefire announcements, the US FED recently made a landmark policy shift that could have profound long-term implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. By removing “reputational risk” as a factor in evaluating crypto firms’ access to bank servicing, the FED is effectively ending a key pillar of Operation Checkpoint 2.0—a campaign that restricted over 30 crypto and fintech companies from traditional financial infrastructure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Deviates From Global M2 Money Supply, Is The Bull Run Over? This recent change clears the way for greater institutional involvement in crypto. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have also followed suit, green-lighting crypto activities for banks and allowing them to participate in the digital assets market without prior approval. Together, these moves mark a regulatory pivot that not only legitimizes the crypto industry but could also accelerate demand and capital inflows into Bitcoin, potentially boosting its already significant valuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill Tuesday left risk-asset traders with a single, binary question: does the most interest-sensitive summer in years end with a crypto breakout or a macro-driven crash? In a prepared statement, Powell stressed that “inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated,” adding that the Federal Open Market Committee is “well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Crypto’s Fate May Be Sealed In July For crypto markets already oscillating on every nuance of policy guidance, the message was clear: the next four weeks—anchored by the 12 July CPI release and the 19 July payrolls report—will decide whether July’s FOMC delivers relief or a reality check. POWELL: WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MEANINGFUL TARIFF INFLATION EFFECTS JUNE, JULY AUGUST POWELL: IF WE DON’T SEE THAT, THAT WOULD LEAD TO CUTTING EARLIER — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 24, 2025 Powell’s caution sits atop a rare public split inside the Board itself. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both Trump appointees, have openly argued that tariff-related price spikes are likely to be “one-time shifts” and therefore should not stand in the way of an early cut—potentially as soon as the 30 July meeting. Seven of their colleagues disagree, laying out projections that keep policy unchanged through December. Powell, for his part, told lawmakers: “I don’t think we need to be in any rush, because the economy is still strong.” Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run Over? Here’s What A Top Trader Just Said Markets reacted by flattening the front end of the curve. Two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.806 percent, while the benchmark 10-year dipped to 4.285 percent—both lows not seen since early May—after the testimony and a surprise cease-fire in the Middle East turbo-charged a global “risk-on” bid. Yet expectations for July remain finely balanced: CME FedWatch shows that traders have whittled the probability of a first 25-basis-point cut to roughly 19%. Crypto traded the cross-currents rather than the headline. Bitcoin, which had cratered to $99,000 on Monday, reclaimed $106,000 by Wednesday morning, mirroring the rebound in equities and high-beta currencies as the dollar slumped on falling yields. Ethereum, meanwhile, held above $2,400—even as Powell’s tone was widely described as hawkish. The broader crypto complex moved in sympathy, with BNB punching through $644 and Solana stabilising near $146. Related Reading: Crypto Gets A Green Light From Spanish Banking Giant Veteran traders on X distilled the stakes. Pseudonymous analyst Byzantine General wrote, “We got a lot of clarity now. All eyes on the July CPI print.” Nic from CoinBureau added that July “is in play—maybe—but nothing’s locked in,” as Powell’s testimony brought no big surprises. Meanwhile, Jim Bianco commented: “Trump appointees Waller and Bowman are suggesting a July cut. Powell is reiterating ‘no.’ Will the July FOMC meeting see at least two dissenters?” For now, Powell’s “watch and wait” stance has bought the FOMC four more weeks of optionality. If July inflation confirms the down-trend, the policy door swings open, and the next rally for crypto could morph into a full-blown melt-up. If it doesn’t, the crash could come just as fast. As Byzantine General put it, the market “got clarity.” What it did not get is comfort. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,892. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin traders aren’t just watching the Fed’s rate decision this week — they’re zeroed in on the dot plot, a chart that could hint at future rate cuts. While the rate is widely expected to stay the same, what Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals next could shake things up. Right now, Bitcoin’s stuck in a …
As the U.S. Federal Reserve gears up for its much-anticipated June meeting, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya shared a bold take on why interest rate cuts may not be coming anytime soon, blaming politics, not the economy. Rate Cuts Look Unlikely… For Now https://t.co/lgG5fx58Hd— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) June 17, 2025 According to prediction market Polymarket, …
Donald Trump has reignited his battle with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “numbskull” and criticizing the Fed for delaying interest rate cuts. Though he says Powell’s job is safe for now, Trump hinted that he may “force something” if rates don’t drop soon. The pressure comes as the 2024 campaign heats up …
The race to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve is heating up well ahead of schedule. According to fresh reports, President Donald Trump is eyeing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as his top pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, despite Powell’s term not expiring until May 2026. While the formal selection process hasn’t started, the …
The Bitcoin price has continued to trade sideways since hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,900 earlier in May. Amid the current price action, crypto analyst Decode has provided insights into whether the leading crypto will rally to $120,000 or drop below $100,000 next. Analyst Reveals What’s Next For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Decode shared an accompanying chart in which he made an ABC wave analysis of the current Bitcoin price action. Based on his analysis, the leading crypto is expected to drop below $100,000 before it rallies to a new ATH of $120,000. The chart showed that BTC could fall to as low as $96,500 on the Wave B corrective move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Bounces Off Re-Accumulation Zone: Why $120,000 Could Be Next This drop to $96,500 is expected to happen this month. Once that is done, Decode predicts that the Bitcoin price could rally above $120,500 before the end of July. This will mark the Wave C impulsive move to the upside. This aligns with veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction that BTC could reach as high as $150,000 by late summer. However, crypto analyst KillaXBT has predicted that the Bitcoin price could hit the $120,000 target by mid-June. This coincides with the June FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for June 17 and 18. A Fed rate cut could serve as the catalyst for such a parabolic rally from the current BTC price level. According to CME FedWatch data, there is a 97.4% chance that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged. As such, market participants aren’t expecting a rate cut, which is why the Bitcoin price could pump massively if Jerome Powell and the FOMC were to surprise everyone. Moreover, US President Donald Trump yesterday urged the Fed to cut rates by a full point. A Breakout Might Be On The Cards In an X post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto suggested that a breakout could be imminent for the Bitcoin price. He noted that BTC is progressing inside a 4-hour falling wedge, which indicates a bullish reversal pattern. If confirmed, the analyst stated that the breakout could target the $107,500 and $109,500 zones, which are the Fibonacci confluence areas. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Puts Bitcoin Price At $120,000 If This Range Breakout Happens Crypto analyst Kevin Capital highlighted the solid V-shape recovery for the Bitcoin price after the leading crypto dropped to as low as $100,000 on May 5. However, the analyst noted that BTC’s rebound back to the $105,000 zone won’t matter until it breaks above the $106,800 level. The leading crypto must also show actual follow-through with 3-day to 1-week closes to support a breakout. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $105,000. Up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price crash is in focus following the flagship crypto’s recent drop to as low as $103,700. Crypto analyst Captain Faibik has commented on why $107,500 and $103,500 are the most important levels to watch as BTC looks to decide its next move. Why $107,500 & $103,500 Are Key For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Captain Faibik explained that $107,500 and $103,500 are key as the bulls and bears battle to dictate the next move for the Bitcoin price. The analyst noted that later this week, BTC bulls will attempt to reclaim the $107,500 resistance and regain momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Break Down To $92,000 As It Enters Accumulation Phase He predicted that a clean break and hold above $107,500 could trigger a bullish leg toward the $117,000 level, which would mark a new all-time high (ATH) for the flagship crypto. Meanwhile, on the other hand, $103,500 is an important support level which the bulls must defend as the Bitcoin price eyes new highs. Captain Faibik warned that a breakdown below could shift momentum back in favor of the bears. The Bitcoin price had surged above $106,000 on May 2 following news about the US decision to extend its pause of tariffs on some Chinese goods to August. This provided a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto after Donald Trump stated last week that China had violated the trade deal with the US. Trump and China’s president are set to have a call later this week, which could further boost the Bitcoin price if both sides could resolve any dispute regarding the current trade deal. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to discuss the economy during his speech at the International Finance Division Anniversary Conference, which also continues to fuel market uncertainty. First Step For BTC Is To Get Back Above $106,500 In an X post, crypto analyst Kevin Capital indicated that the first step is for the Bitcoin price to successfully reclaim $106,500. He noted that BTC had recorded a weekly close below this level, which puts the flagship crypto back in the danger zone. The analyst further remarked that BTC needs to get back above this level in the coming days or things can get “sketchy looking.” Kevin Capital added that this has been a key level for months, and nothing has changed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rise To $111,000 ATH Doesn’t Mean The Market Is Bullish, Certified Expert Says Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto revealed that a Katana is forming on the weekly chart for the Bitcoin price. He explained that in Ichimoku analysis, a Katana forms when Tenkan and Kijun overlap. This signals low momentum and market equilibrium. He added that this development also precedes strong directional moves, with an expansion or pullback on the horizon. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $105,435, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Solana (SOL) is once again in the spotlight, as a market analyst has forecasted a massive rally that could propel the token’s price to new All-Time Highs (ATHs) by late 2025. The prediction suggests a staggering 140% surge from current levels toward a bold price target of $420 and beyond. Solana Prepares For Parabolic Move Toward $420 A fresh chart analysis shared by a TradingView crypto analyst, Master Ananda, reports that Solana has completed a textbook rounded bottom pattern, indicating a bullish reversal to new ATHs. Notably, the analyst forecasts that SOL is gearing up for a parabolic surge to $420, emphasizing that this bullish projection is not the cryptocurrency’s final target. Related Reading: Analyst Tells Investors To Be Patient As Solana Price Hits Resistance The analysis, as stated earlier, is based on the formation of a rounded bottom pattern, which has been developing since early 2025. This pattern has now transitioned into a breakout structure, with the Solana price reportedly holding firm above the $160 support line — a level considered the baseline of the rounded bottom and a psychological stronghold for the market. Notably, Solana faced a strong rejection at a key resistance area on May 23. However, despite the pullback, Master Ananda emphasized that the price action remains resilient, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact and the dip has not altered the altcoin’s positive long-term outlook in the months ahead. In addition, Solana also dropped to a low on May 19, marked by the blue line on the price chart. Despite this, the analyst strongly asserts that there is “absolutely no bearish action” on the current chart. As long as the $160 level holds, the current trend is likely to accelerate toward higher Fibonacci resistance levels, culminating in the 1.618 extension at around $419.78. This bullish target would represent approximately 140% growth from the current price of around $178 and would place Solana at a new all-time high. Interestingly, Master Ananda noted that even if Solana falls below the key support level, it would be of little concern. Such a move would likely signal a market shakeout or a bear trap rather than a pullback or an invalidation of Solana’s bullish thesis. This view stems from the belief that SOL’s bullish bias has already been confirmed, positioning the market for potential strong growth over the long term. The key point of Master Ananda’s analysis is that Solana’s rise is expected to be sudden and powerful, leaving those on the sidelines regretting missed opportunities. As the market matures and liquidity improves following Bitcoin’s steady rise, the sharp upside potential for Solana could unfold much quicker than anticipated. Macro Catalysts Align For Massive Crypto Growth While explaining his bullish case for Solana, Master Ananda revealed that changes in macroeconomic factors could become a catalyst for astonishing growth in the crypto market. With the US Federal Reserve (FED) expected to initiate interest rate cuts in the coming months, the broader risk-on environment is set to benefit the crypto sector significantly. Related Reading: Solana Rebound To $900 Is Coming, But This Resistance Stands In The Way The analyst suggests that Solana’s current price levels, while not at absolute lows, still represent a significant buy zone. Master Ananda revealed that Solana’s potential is substantial, and as the next bull cycle gains momentum, $300 will no longer be seen as expensive. Before this happens, Master Ananda has stated that investors “should be fully invested and buy like it’s the end of the world”. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is currently trading around the $105,000 mark after a brief uptick to $107,000 in the past 24 hours. Notably, this marks the second time Bitcoin has rejected around $107,000 in the past few days. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin managed to close last week’s candle above a key resistance level that had capped its price action for weeks. This close, recorded just above the red horizontal line at $103,000, has introduced confidence in the continuation of the uptrend, and points to the bulls still in control of Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin Weekly Closes Above Range – First Bullish Step Current Bitcoin price action shows that bullish investors and buyers are still controlling the momentum behind the largest cryptocurrency and, in essence, the rest of the crypto market. Notably, Bitcoin initially experienced a brief surge to nearly $107,000 over the weekend before retreating. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Trend Oscillator Shows When To Expect The Price Top This price movement was followed by a dip to around $102,000, with the back-and-forth most likely being influenced by factors such as Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt and investor reactions to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, in an interesting note, the BTC price managed to close above the $103,000 range during this first move to $107,000, which is very important in terms of technical analysis going forward. This sentiment is echoed by crypto analyst Rekt Capital on social media platform X, who pointed out the next step that might play out for Bitcoin. Post-Breakout Retest Underway, Says Rekt Capital The $104,000 price level had previously acted as a stubborn ceiling throughout much of the recent Bitcoin price consolidation between $102,000 and $104,000 since May 9. However, since breaking above this level, the ensuing price action has seen the Bitcoin price retracing towards this level after another rejection at $107,000. Related Reading: Golden Ratio Multiplier Called Bitcoin Top In 2021 – Here’s What It’s Saying Now According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the dip following the $107,000 rejection isn’t necessarily bearish. Instead, it could be part of a post-breakout retest, a pattern often seen in strong bullish structures. If this retest successfully confirms the former resistance as new support, BTC could set the stage for a breakout into fresh all-time highs. As shown in the 1W Bitcoin price chart above, the red resistance level is very close to Bitcoin’s January 2025 all-time high around $108,780. Furthermore, the chart shows that the recent breakout above the $90,000–$103,000 zone appears to mirror a pattern of Bitcoin’s breakout after a consolidation move, after another bounce from a low. In this case, the bounce occurred at the $75,000 low in early April. If Bitcoin does rebound with enough trading volume around $104,000, this could provide the much-needed momentum for a move above $107,000 and finally above $108,700 again. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,555, up by 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
An unprecedented surge in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey has jolted global risk markets and given crypto asset traders their clearest macro catalyst of the year. The Future New Orders diffusion index leapt by forty-plus points, a move that Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), called “literally” historic. Crypto Bulls Can Rejoice Bittel’s commentary on X framed the print with statistical precision: “Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday – and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally. … Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded – going all the way back to the index’s inception in May 1968. A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move. He underlined the shock with a comparison few macro watchers will forget: For perspective: that’s an even bigger move up than the downside collapse during the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-4.1σ). Let that sink in…” Bittel then set the surge in a broader narrative that has animated his research since late last year. “Q1 growth was weak. The reason is straightforward – financial conditions tightened sharply in Q4. The dollar ripped, bond yields surged… a classic tightening phase,” he wrote. Related Reading: Analysis: Crypto Heats Up As $35 Billion Enters Market In Under A Month The proximate trigger, in his telling, was “businesses panic‑loading inventories ahead of Trump tariffs, and markets front‑running the inflation narrative.” Those dynamics, he argued, are a replay of Donald Trump’s first term: “We’ve highlighted repeatedly: this had all the hallmarks of Q4 2016 during Trump’s first term. Just like early 2017, that tightening spilled over into slower growth momentum in Q1.” Where 2017 began with doubt and ended in a synchronous global boom, Bittel believes 2025 is rhyming. “Those Q1 headwinds have flipped into Q2 tailwinds,” he insisted. “Everything flows downstream from changes in financial conditions… Purchasing managers’ expectations are shifting – and shifts in thinking eventually translate into action. Sentiment shifts first. Action follows. It always does. Bullish.” The crypto market responded muted. Bitcoin reclaimed the $104,000 level in early‑European trade, but lost it later on. Ether steadied near $2,600, and high‑beta layer‑one tokens such as Solana and Avalanche moved in tandem. Related Reading: Ethereum Gains Momentum Amid Flat Funding Rates – Is This A Healthy Uptrend? Giancarlo Cudrig, head of markets at Immutable, said the scale of the shock is less important than how under‑positioned investors are for an upside growth surprise. “An upside economic shock like this – +4.3σ on new orders – is rare. But the bigger story is market positioning. Asset prices are not prepared. The melt‑up is the asymmetric risk. Now it’s being repriced.” Independent analyst Market Heretic struck a similar note on X: “When this dropped, markets didn’t even blink. Because the shift’s already in motion. This wasn’t news, it was confirmation. That’s the real tell, when markets shrug off a four‑sigma upside shock. It means the turn is already upon us – and it’s just getting started.” For crypto investors, the implications are immediate. A softer dollar and retreating real‑yield expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets, while the early phase of a reflationary turn historically favours high‑beta exposures. Bittel’s own playbook is unambiguous: “Sentiment shifts first. Action follows.” As long as that chain reaction continues, the crypto bulls appear to have both math and momentum on their side. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.28 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed’s policy group, the Federal Open Market Committee, voted to keep the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Before the announcement, markets were almost certain this would happen, with a 99% chance priced in. As a result, the crypto market didn’t react much to this interest …
The Fed is widely expected to leave rates steady on Wednesday, but traders will monitor comments for economic projections and clarity on future rate cuts.
The debate surrounding FED rate cuts continues to swirl, as U.S. President Donald Trump clarified he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — but made it clear he’s losing patience. Speaking to reporters, Trump labeled it now the “perfect time” for the Fed to act. While he attempted to squash rumors …
US financial markets plunged Monday while cryptocurrency prices remained firm, as US President Donald Trump ramped up his public feud with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, The Guardian and other news outlets reported Tuesday. The clash between the country’s highest political and monetary leaders shook traditional markets to their core but left crypto surprisingly unscathed. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Sees $120 Million Weekly Surge—Whales Tighten Their Grip Stock Markets Plummet After Presidential Remarks American stock indices closed forcefully lower on April 21, with broad losses at major benchmarks. The S&P 500 declined 2.3%, the tech-dominated Nasdaq lost 2.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by almost 1,000 points, down 2.4%, based on Google Finance data. JUST NOW: President Trump calls Jerome Powell a “major loser” and demands interest rates lowered “now” pic.twitter.com/rAM7CVmPw2 — Morning Brew ☕️ (@MorningBrew) April 21, 2025 Trump Calls For Rate Cuts And Slams Fed Chair Underlying the market volatility is a rapidly intensifying clash between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Trump used his April 21 Truth Social forum to post that “Preemptive Cuts in Interest Rates are being called for by many.” The President contended rate cuts are warranted because “Energy Costs [are] way down, food prices [are] substantially lower, and most other ‘things’ [are] trending down,” asserting “there is virtually No Inflation.” Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, calling him “Too late and wrong” for not cutting interest rates, which remain at 4.5%. Tensions rose after Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs could cause stagflation, prompting the president to demand his removal, saying his “termination cannot come fast enough.” Dollar Weakens While Crypto Shows Strength As the political conflict rages on, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback relative to other significant currencies, dipped below 98 on April 21, recording a three-year low. This follows a falling trend that has had the dollar drop over 10% of its value since the start of 2025, latest data shows. Bitcoin Unfazed Amid Political Turmoil In stark contrast to traditional markets, cryptocurrencies have maintained their weekend gains. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization, based on TradingView data, remained steady at $2.74 trillion. Bitcoin price, according to data from Coingecko, hit a four-week high of $88,428. Why is the price of bitcoin flat? Should Trump fire Jerome Powell? Will The US lose reserve currency status? I answer your questions ???? pic.twitter.com/S7Q6hANR3H — Anthony Pompliano ???? (@APompliano) April 18, 2025 Industry Figures Warn Vs. Political Interference Cryptocurrency businessperson Anthony Pompliano warned against presidential intervention in the Federal Reserve leadership. In a video he uploaded on X on April 18, Pompliano declared that he does not believe that Trump should come in and unilaterally fire the Fed chair. Related Reading: Pi Network Frenzy Builds: $5 Prediction As Whales Take Out Millions He further stated that policy disagreement firings would lead the nation into perilous waters: “Where you have a disagreement and then the firing, I think that’s not really the area that we want to go into.” Market experts believe the central bank will hold steady at its next meeting on May 7. According to data, interest rate markets now forecast only a 13% probability of a rate reduction at that session. Featured image from Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images. chart from TradingView
The Cardano price may be preparing for a powerful rally toward $1.7, as new indicators suggest a potential recovery. A leading crypto analyst has identified multiple bullish catalysts that could drive ADA’s momentum and help propel the cryptocurrency to this bullish target. Institutional Interest To Fuel Cardano Price Recovery According to a recent technical analysis by a pseudonymous TradingView analyst, ‘Risk_Adj_Return,’ the Cardano price is suddenly showing signs of recovery after a period of sluggish performance. This seemingly bullish turnaround has sparked predictions of a potential surge to $1.7. Related Reading: Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Set To Crash To $0.4 After Correction To Liquidity Zone According to the analyst’s report, several factors have been fueling ADA’s recovery. Despite its downtrend, large spot purchases have been observed, hinting at growing interest from institutional investors. The analyst also mentioned that political developments from key figures, such as US President Donald Trump, could spark further bullish sentiment for Cardano. Although many of the present institutional buy-ins for Cardano have been followed by sell-offs, possibly from short-term traders, the sheer volume suggests that major players are closely watching the market. Part of this renewed institutional interest is attributed to the US Federal Reserve (FED) and broader macroeconomic signals. Investors may be hoping for a shift in monetary policy or clear signs of easing inflation in the upcoming FOMC meeting, as this could boost risk assets like ADA. Any alignment between the Cardano price action and the FED decision could become a significant catalyst for upside momentum. In his Cardano price chart, the TradingView analyst highlighted a bullish long trade setup on the 4-hour timeframe, utilizing the Heikin-Ashi candles. The trading strategy is supported by multiple take-profit levels, with the entry point marked near Cardano’s current price range. A clear stop loss has also been placed just below the local support to manage downside risks. The trade plan involves three key take-profit levels: $0.73, $0.96, and $1.21. These targets align with previous resistance zones, allowing traders to potentially lock in gains before ADA reaches its ultimate upside target of $1.74. ADA Breakout Unlikely Amid US Trade Tensions The Cardano price is showing signs of strength, according to a market expert, ‘AMCrypto’, who notes that it is holding firm at a critical ascending support trendline on the 4-hour chart. After a recent decline, ADA bounced off the trendline, maintaining the bullish structure of an Ascending Triangle. Related Reading: Cardano Price Could Be Set For 100% Rally As This Bullish Triangle Has Formed On The Daily Timeframe Currently trading around $0.61, Cardano still faces resistance at $0.67. A confirmed close above this threshold could signal a breakout, potentially propelling its price toward the $0.73 – $0.75 range. However, despite these bullish technicals, macroeconomic uncertainty remains a key obstacle to ADA’s breakout potential. The ongoing US-China trade war tensions continue to fuel market volatility, creating headwinds for a sustained rally. The current market decline and instability fueled by this trade war have also kept many investors on the sidelines as they await stability. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto prices dropped after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that higher tariffs and rising prices could slow down the economy. Speaking in Chicago, he said these changes might lead to stagflation, a mix of high inflation and low growth. Powell also talked about keeping the Fed independent from politics and pointed out how …
The March FOMC meeting minutes revealed a quiet tug-of-war inside the Federal Reserve. The central bank recently decided to sharply slow down its balance sheet reduction, also known as quantitative tightening (QT), dropping Treasury runoff caps from $25 billion to $5 billion per month. While this move had broad support, the minutes show it wasn’t …
Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, Trump said.
In an interview, Arthur Hayes—co-founder of the pioneering crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX—laid out his outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a momentous rally fueled by what he describes as “stealth printing” by global central banks. While Hayes has long stressed the crucial role of liquidity in driving the Bitcoin price, his latest remarks go even further, suggesting a new phase of expansion is imminent. Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is History Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s original four-year “halving cycle” framework has been overshadowed by the asset’s ascent into mainstream financial consciousness. According to him, early on, Bitcoin’s market dynamics were more closely tied to mining profitability cycles. However, those days appear largely gone: “Now that Bitcoin and crypto are a bona fide asset class…everyone’s responding to it,” Hayes said. “It has transitioned from this technological digital bearer asset into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Make Big Moves As Bullish Momentum Resurfaces Rather than focus on halving events, Hayes urges investors to track how many dollars, euros, yen, and yuan are actively being created—or destroyed—by the world’s major central banks. In his view, the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank drive the most significant flows: “All I care about is fiat liquidity. As long as we believe [Bitcoin] works, then it just comes down to how many fiat things are in the denominator, and then you just get to the price.” According to Hayes, markets are underestimating the US Federal Reserve’s willingness to revert to looser monetary policy far sooner than publicly stated. He calls recent Fed moves “stealth printing,” arguing that Chair Jerome Powell is quietly laying groundwork to keep credit conditions easy—even though official language still references inflation concerns. Hayes pointed to signs in the Fed’s communications that quantitative tightening (QT) will slow or even pause. One such indicator is Powell’s mention of offsetting any reduction in mortgage-backed securities with fresh purchases of US Treasuries: “They said they might taper QT to be flat […] That’s very positive for dollar liquidity.” He also noted Powell’s statements that any inflation arising from tariffs would be considered “transitory”—in effect granting the Fed cover to maintain accommodative policies: “Tariffs don’t matter anymore to Powell, and they shouldn’t matter anymore as crypto investors […] because we know that Powell’s going to continue to provide the monetary conditions […] that we need to have our portfolios go up in value in fiat dollar terms.” The Bottom Is (Probably) In In Hayes’s estimation, the worst of Bitcoin’s recent downturn may already be behind us. Although he concedes that the market could still retest lows, he contends that Bitcoin has likely established a key floor: “On balance, we probably hit a bottom of 76,000 […] Does that mean that we’re not going to retest it? No, of course not, but if I had to make a bet, I would bet that we go higher rather than lower.” For Hayes, this is a question of recognizing a turning point in monetary policy. Once the Federal Reserve and other central banks signal they are fully done tightening—“or never truly started,” in his phrasing—he expects Bitcoin to climb. Related Reading: One Of Bitcoin’s Most Reliable Buy Signals Just Flashed Hayes also dismissed the idea that looming crypto regulations in the United States or elsewhere could meaningfully stifle Bitcoin’s trajectory. He believes Bitcoin’s permissionless, decentralized design makes it effectively impervious to traditional regulatory blockades: “Crypto regulation doesn’t matter. Bitcoin doesn’t need anyone’s permission. It’s moving with or without them […] If Bitcoin trades on tradfi regulations, then I don’t want to own it. I want something immune to regulation.” In one of his most attention-grabbing statements, Hayes contemplated whether Bitcoin could achieve “a numerically interesting number”—including the possibility of $1 million—during the next wave of dollar-driven liquidity. Although he did not definitively lock in an exact price ceiling, he mentioned that it might be a psychologically resonant figure: “I put $1 million Bitcoin out there- I hope it will be $1 million dollars but you know maybe it’s just 666,000 or 500,000 or 250,000 what some round number that the human mind sees as significant, for some arbitrary reason.” For Hayes, it comes down to global monetary authorities deciding they have “gone too far” in trying to rein in spending and inflation. Once central banks resume large-scale liquidity injections, he argues, the stage is set for rapid upside in Bitcoin’s price. Arthur Hayes’s perspective centers on the idea that Bitcoin’s fate hinges almost exclusively on global liquidity conditions. He remains convinced that central bankers, especially at the Fed, are closer to providing a renewed wave of monetary stimulus than the market believes—paving the way for a dramatic Bitcoin rally. While volatility remains inherent, Hayes insists that the largest cryptocurrency is poised to move swiftly once the policy backdrop aligns. “If you know what to look for, the clues are everywhere. The bottom is in, liquidity is coming back, and Bitcoin… it’s already turning the corner.” Where that corner leads, according to Hayes, could be as high as $1 million—starting, he suggests, as soon as April. At press time, BTC traded at $85,765. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto industry received a significant legal victory as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced on March 19 that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had officially dropped its appeal against the company. The announcement came in a video posted on social media platform X, where Garlinghouse noted the regulatory agency’s decision to end its pursuit of further litigation. Besides this interesting development, another major financial development has taken center stage in the crypto market in the past 24 hours; the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady Amid Uncertainty The outcome of the latest Fed meeting can be divided into six key decisions. First, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current level, keeping the borrowing rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% for the second consecutive meeting. This decision is part of a continued pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash: 6 Key Events To Watch Out For In Crypto This Week Secondly, the Fed noted that uncertainty surrounding the economy has increased, and third, the Fed’s updated projections were the shift in expectations for rate cuts in 2025. The median forecast suggests 50 basis points of cuts for the year, but a growing number of Fed officials are less convinced that rate reductions will be necessary. In December, only one official anticipated no rate cuts in 2025. However, there’s now a more divided outlook, and that number has now risen to four, as noted in a post on social media platform X by analysts at The Kobeissi Letter. Beyond interest rates, the Fed revised its economic growth projections downward for 2025, suggesting that policymakers see slower expansion ahead. This adjustment comes alongside an increase in the Fed’s inflation forecast for the same period, reflecting concerns about price pressures persisting longer than previously anticipated. With inflation remaining a key focus, the central bank is treading carefully as it evaluates the right time to pivot toward a looser monetary stance. Fourthly, the Fed announced that it would slow the pace of its balance sheet runoff beginning in April. This is alongside a sharp reduction in the Fed’s 2025 growth projections and a markup in their 2025 inflation forecast. Implications For Crypto Markets And Digital Assets For the crypto industry, the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady and its mixed messaging on future cuts introduce a dynamic situation to Bitcoin and others. The fact that the Fed is still concerned about inflation and economic uncertainty shows that the path to more accommodative policies regarding the crypto industry may not be as smooth. Related Reading: Crypto Market Sees Record Flash Crashes, What’s Going On? However, if the Fed stays hesitant to cut rates and economic growth slows as projected, digital assets may face headwinds later in the year, which may slow down the predicted growth by crypto analysts. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
According to a recent X post by crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) probably hit its bottom during the plunge to $77,000 on March 10. However, Hayes cautioned that while BTC may have bottomed, stock markets could face more pain ahead. BTC Bottomed At $77,000? Hayes Thinks So Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently took to X to declare that BTC may have likely bottomed at $77,000. The acclaimed crypto market commentator referred to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest remarks signaling the end of quantitative tightening (QT). Hayes remarked: JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was BTC $77K the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Needs Weekly Close Above This Level To Confirm Market Bottom, Analyst Says For the uninitiated, QT is one of the Fed’s monetary policies aimed at reducing the money supply by selling off assets like government bonds or letting them mature without reinvesting. While this helps control inflation, it can also lead to higher interest rates and slower economic growth. The Fed began its most recent QT cycle nearly three years ago in June 2022 to combat high inflation resulting from COVID-era economic stimulus. Now that inflation appears to be easing, the Fed has little reason to continue QT. Yesterday, the Fed announced that from April 1 onwards, it will slow the pace of its balance sheet drawdown. Such a shift in monetary policy is likely to benefit risk-on assets like BTC and stocks. As stated in his X post, Hayes emphasized that the next potential bullish catalysts could be either a Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption or the start of quantitative easing (QE). To explain, the SLR exemption temporarily allowed banks to exclude certain assets, like US Treasuries and central bank reserves, from their leverage calculations to encourage lending and support financial markets during crises. Similarly, QE is a monetary policy through which the Fed increases the money supply in the economy, potentially benefiting high-risk assets like BTC. Axie Infinity co-founder Jeff Jirlin echoed Hayes’ sentiments, stating that an end to QT from April onwards would be “great for both crypto and equity markets.” Jirlin added that the current monetary policy is the tightest he has observed since 2010. Bitcoin Not Out Of The Woods Yet While market optimism has increased following the Fed’s recent comments, the premier cryptocurrency is not fully out of the woods yet. For instance, BTC recently broke down through a 12-year trend line against gold, raising fears of heightened economic uncertainty in the near term. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Sell Pressure Fades, Could A Local Bottom Be Forming? Analyst Explains Further, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently spooked the market by declaring that the Bitcoin bull run is likely over. At press time, BTC trades at $85,203, up 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
The Federal Reserve’s next big decision is just around the corner. On March 19, the FOMC will announce its latest policy move, and all eyes are on whether it will hold interest rates steady. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. This …
RLinda, a TradingView crypto analyst who predicted Bitcoin’s previous crash from $91,000, has shared another bearish forecast for the pioneer cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, more pain may be on the horizon for Bitcoin, as it is expected to plummet as low as $73,000. Bitcoin is currently struggling to maintain its former momentum as bearish factors dominate the market. According to RLinda, the cryptocurrency has entered a sell zone after failing to hold above the buying zone above $91,000, thus initiating a false resistance breakdown. Given its current bearish position, the analyst predicts a major crash to new lows for Bitcoin, anticipating an 11% decline to $73,000 soon. Bitcoin Price Set To Crash To $73,000 RLinda revealed that the market’s volatility was partially attributed to Donald Trump’s comments on the Federal Reserve. The market reacted to the US President’s statements with a global shake-up, causing liquidations across the crypto space. Related Reading: Bitcoin 9-Month Cycle Says It’s Not Over, Analyst Shows Where We Are In The Bull Run Additionally, the crypto summit, which was expected to spark bullish sentiment, did little to boost prices. Instead, it prevented the market from turning green. This market downturn has led to profit-taking by investors due to the lack of market and manipulation by big players. Based on the analyst’s price chart, Bitcoin is trading within the $90,000 – $82,000 range. The cryptocurrency dropped to this price after experiencing a slight price pump in late February. Following this increase, Bitcoin lost all of its gains and has since been aiming for a recovery. RLinda warns that if Bitcoin breaks below the $82,000 support level, it could experience a significant price breakdown towards $78,000 – $73,000. The TradingView analyst has highlighted $73,000 as the primary crash target, citing that Bitcoin is currently in a deep correction phase. With global growth temporarily suspended, RLinda revealed that the market is in dire need of liquidity. The analyst indicated that if the market’s growth relies too much on bullish leverage and new buyers without proper correction, it may become unstable. A correction phase, like the one Bitcoin is currently experiencing, may allow liquidity to reset and prepare the market for future upward movements. BTC Key Resistance And Support Zones RLinda has pinpointed key resistance and support levels for the Bitcoin price, sharing insights into potential reversal points. The TradingView analyst asserts that the price zone with the most interest and liquidity is $73,000 – $66,000. Related Reading: Legendary Analyst Peter Brandt Lists 6 Reasons Bitcoin Has Flipped Bullish While a breakdown to $66,000 may seem like a steep decline, it could serve as a critical area for market stabilization. Moreover, further bearish movements would be confirmed if Bitcoin drops below $82,000. Currently, the resistance levels to watch are $89,400, $91,000, and $93,000. Conversely, the support areas to take note of are $82,000, $78,000, and $73,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
March 7, 2025 13:06:25 UTC What Time Powell’s Speech Will Start Today? Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak today at 12:30 PM EST at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He will address the economy, inflation risks, and the impact of Trump’s new tariffs, just hours after the February jobs report. …
Recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brushed off concerns about a Wall Street selloff following the White House’s trade war with Canada, China, and Mexico. Speaking on Fox & Friends, Bessent emphasized that President Trump’s main focus is improving the living standards of everyday Americans, despite market worries over the 20-25% tariffs on key trading partners. …
A fresh infusion of liquidity from the US Treasury General Account (TGA) is making waves among market observers, with some analysts speculating this could be a key trigger for Bitcoin’s next major move. While the Federal Reserve continues its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, the TGA’s latest cash injection—pegged at up to $842 billion—has sparked debate over whether we are witnessing a stealth version of quantitative easing, sometimes referred to as “Not QE, QE.” Fed’s “Not QE, QE” In a post shared on X, macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) offered a breakdown of how this dynamic is playing out: “‘Not QE, QE’ has officially started. A liquidity injection that could total up to $842bn from the US Treasury General Account began this week. Functionally, this is similar to Quantitative Easing, but on a temporary basis.” The backdrop for this liquidity surge is the binding $36 trillion US debt limit. With no new debt issuance allowed until a fresh debt ceiling agreement is reached, the Treasury is forced to rely on funds from the TGA to cover government spending obligations. This draws down the TGA balance—$842 billion as of Tuesday, February 11—effectively injecting liquidity into financial markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Network Activity Is Declining — Impact On Price? According to Tomas, the Treasury’s “train” of TGA spending started in earnest on Wednesday, February 12: “From my understanding, the official ‘debt ceiling-induced’ Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown began on Wednesday February 12… This train is now in motion and will not stop until lawmakers come to a new debt ceiling agreement.” He projects that the first segment of this process will likely involve around $600 billion in injections between February 12 and April 11. After the April tax season, a temporary replenishment of the TGA could occur, but until a new debt ceiling deal is reached, the Treasury will presumably continue to spend down existing cash reserves. While some observers are hailing this development as a de facto round of QE, Tomas underscores that the final net impact depends on two critical drains on liquidity: The Federal Reserve is rolling off assets at about $55 billion per month, which Tomas expects to continue at least through the next FOMC meeting in March. Over two months, that translates to an estimated $110 billion liquidity reduction. With the Treasury issuing fewer T-bills due to debt-ceiling constraints—termed “net negative T-bill issuance”—money market funds may have fewer short-term government securities to buy. This scarcity could prompt them to park more cash in the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility, which effectively drains liquidity from the broader market. Tomas notes: “This may incentivize money market funds to park cash in the Fed’s Reverse Repo, potentially pushing this chart up… Reverse Repo usage increasing would be a liquidity drain, as money would be moving away from markets and into the Reverse Repo facility at the Fed.” Overall, the true scale of the TGA-based stimulus remains uncertain. Last week, net injections into the system were estimated at $50 billion, a figure that could fluctuate in the weeks ahead as QT and Reverse Repo demand evolve. Another key piece of the puzzle is the ongoing political deadlock over the debt ceiling. Despite calls for bipartisan cooperation, divisions within the narrow Republican majority—combined with broad Democratic opposition—complicate prospects for a swift resolution. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is ‘Primed For A Breakout’: Is BTC Heading For $150,000 Rally? House Republicans recently put forward a plan tying “trillions of dollars” in tax cuts to raising the debt ceiling. However, the measure’s passage is far from assured, as deeply conservative members object to any debt limit increase on principle. Past increases have typically required cross-party support, indicating a potentially prolonged standoff. “This comes down on the shoulders of House Speaker Mike Johnson, as he attempts to rally lawmakers behind the plan,” Tomas notes, reflecting widespread skepticism about whether sufficient votes can be secured. Will Bitcoin Benefit? For Bitcoin traders, these liquidity ebbs and flows often correlate with broader risk appetite—Bitcoin has historically seen upward price movements during periods of loose monetary policy and liquidity injections. Although the Federal Reserve has signaled no immediate halt to QT, the TGA drawdown’s near-term flood of cash could still buoy risk assets, including Bitcoin. Precisely how much of this “Not QE, QE” trickles into Bitcoin remains to be seen. Yet, for market participants watching daily net liquidity metrics, the interplay between TGA drawdowns, QT, and Reverse Repo usage has become a central storyline. As the standoff in Washington continues, the Bitcoin space will be monitoring every uptick and downtick in the Fed’s liquidity charts—hoping it might just flip the switch on Bitcoin’s next big breakout. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $96,424. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In his testimony on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes for another round of quantitative easing (QE), reiterating that “QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero” and that the Fed remains “a long ways away from ending QT.” This stance challenges the notion that a quick pivot to aggressive easing might buoy Bitcoin and the entire crypto market as it did in past cycles. End Of The Bull Run For Bitcoin And Altcoins? Macro analyst Alex Krüger posted on X that “we are ages away from QE,” stressing that some market participants needed to hear Powell’s stance clearly. Another commentator, Tagoo, noted there is “no need for QE, only for discontinuation of QT,” prompting Krüger to respond that it may take “a few more months” for QT to wind down. Felix Jauvin, the host of the On the Margin podcast, commented via X: “For the QE is coming soon dreamers, I hope you just heard what powell said “QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero”. You don’t want zero rates and QE. That means a LOT of pain has to happen in the interim. QE isn’t coming to save your overleveraged alt bags anytime soon.” Jauvin believes the US economy has shifted from a period of stagnation to a more fundamental growth phase. According to him, “we can still see bull markets and a bid in risk assets without these monetary plumbing tricks,” since he views this as a healthier, productivity-led environment—one he calls “an economic golden age.” Dan McArdle reminded followers that markets can remain risk-on “with a decent economy and some credit expansion.” He cautioned the crypto community against anchoring expectations solely to zero-interest-rate policies and QE, suggesting that a steady economy could still support Bitcoin’s upside. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), framed Powell’s comments within “The Everything Code,” contending that QE is only one part of the global liquidity picture. While the Fed might not pivot to QE soon, Bittel pointed out that other factors, such as actions by the People’s Bank of China, private credit creation, or shifts in the Treasury General Account, can also inject liquidity into markets. “The Fed’s got other tools, and they’ve been working with the Treasury since Covid to smooth out the QT impact through the TGA and RRP,” Bittel remarked. He reminded traders that “it’s not just the Fed in this equation” and noted that Chinese rates heading toward zero heightens the possibility of China rolling out some form of QE. “Back in 2017, the Fed was a small player in the liquidity game. In fact, the Fed was doing QT and hiking rates all year, yet risk assets still flourished and Bitcoin did a 23x following the sharp but short 28% correction in January,” he added. Crypto analyst Kevin also argues that Bitcoin may not strictly require QE to thrive. However, he pointed out that “we have also never seen a macro cycle top in BTC Dominance” during active QT, casting doubt on the likelihood of a robust altcoin season anytime soon. “I still believe my analysis tells me sometime in Q2 it will end but if we take Powell at face value then altcoins season callers everyday for the last 2 years will continue to look more lost and wrong then they already are and have been,” Kevin stated. At press time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com