Fresh U.S. labor market data has intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon move toward rate cuts after the economy shed around 92,000 jobs, signaling cooling employment conditions. The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics pushed unemployment to roughly 4.4%, raising concerns about a broader slowdown. Following the report, Michelle Bowman acknowledged the …
Arthur Hayes was wrong before. In December, the BitMEX co-founder predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t. Bitcoin is trading near $71,000. Hayes is now calling for $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of the year, and his reasoning runs straight through the Middle East. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% War, Spending, And The Fed Hayes argues that a prolonged US military conflict involving Iran would put severe pressure on federal finances. As government spending climbs, he believes policymakers would face little choice but to cut interest rates and pump more money into the financial system. That combination — loose monetary policy and expanding liquidity — is what he thinks sends Bitcoin sharply higher. The argument is grounded in history, at least partially. During the 1990 Gulf War, Federal Open Market Committee members openly cited Middle East instability as a factor in their deliberations. Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes is predicting a $500k – $750k Bitcoin by end of 2026??? Trump admin + Iran conflict + Fed easing = ???????? He explains: pic.twitter.com/AU23sd216a — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 2, 2026 By late 1990, the Fed had cut rates as economic confidence dropped. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed for an emergency 50-basis-point cut, which was implemented almost immediately. Markets steadied shortly after. Hayes draws a direct line from those episodes to what he sees unfolding now. Large military operations cost hundreds of billions. Fiscal pressure builds. The Fed eventually eases. Risk assets, including Bitcoin, rise. A Pattern Hayes Has Bet On Before He made this case publicly in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors could find a meaningful entry point once the Fed begins cutting rates or expanding the money supply. He named Bitcoin and a handful of what he called high-quality altcoins as the assets best positioned to benefit once that shift begins. The key moment, in his view, is not the conflict itself but what comes after. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he argues, are what actually move prices. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit The Gap Between The Forecast And The Chart Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story from Hayes’ projections. The coin sits roughly half its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil climbed after US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow. It sold off initially before recovering to current levels. That disconnect — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags — has not shaken Hayes’ outlook. His $500,000 to $750,000 call remains intact, pinned to the belief that monetary policy, not headlines, is what ultimately drives the price. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict becomes. Featured image from US Air Force, chart from TradingView
The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict is now spilling into monetary policy expectations. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the situation makes the Federal Reserve’s job significantly more complicated, especially when it comes to rate cuts. “I think the recent Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates than they …
The Bitcoin’s recent pullback may look concerning on the surface, but according to Brian Armstrong, the move has more to do with the market psychology than with any deterioration in fundamentals. After a period of strong performance, shifting sentiment and broader market uncertainty are playing a larger role in BTC’s price movement than structural weaknesses within the network or its long-term value proposition. Why Bitcoin’s Core Strengths Remain Intact A crypto expert known as Walter Bloomberg on X has revealed that the Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin’s recent slide is temporary and is driven primarily by market psychology rather than weakening fundamentals. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound Speaking to the Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) at the World Liberty Forum in Florida, Armstrong pushed back against the speculation linking the decline to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership changes or emerging risks such as quantum computing. Instead, Armstrong explained that the move reflects investors locking in profits and reacting to what they believe others are thinking. He described the downturn as likely temporary, noting that Coinbase is repurchasing shares and buying more BTC at a lower price. Armstrong emphasized that crypto market cycles are normal, reiterating that BTC remains the best-performing asset of the past decade and that the company continues to focus on long-term growth. Is This The Early Stage Of Another Supply Shock? Bitcoin whales have accumulated more than 200,000 BTC despite the ongoing selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost highlighted that while whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow. Thus, inflows typically reflect short-term behaviour and can generate immediate selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows The chart below provides a medium-term perspective by tracking the evolution of the whale-held supply on a monthly average basis. After a sharp drop in this average to nearly -7% on December 15, whale behaviour appears to have shifted over the past month, with their holdings increasing by 3.4%. During this period, the BTC supply by whales grew from 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of more than 200,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the last time whale accumulation of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 market correction. At that time, this wave of accumulation had helped absorb selling pressure and supported the rally that pushed BTC from $76,000 to $126,000. However, with BTC still consolidating around 46% below its recent all-time high, the current level may be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. Darkfost noted that it is not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity. As selling pressure remains significant, this whale demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully counterbalance the broader market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Researchers linked to the Federal Reserve say prediction market data from Kalshi could help policymakers better measure economic expectations. In their paper, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” they argue that managing expectations is central to monetary policy, but traditional tools such as surveys and financial derivatives have clear limits. Surveys are often slow …
The latest Fed minutes news released on February 18, 2026, show that Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates, signaling that a rate cut in March is unlikely. While some members support future rate cuts if inflation falls further, others prefer to keep rates unchanged for longer and closely watch economic conditions. Fed …
The US economy is starting 2026 with an uncomfortable split-screen scenario that is complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's recovery towards $100,000. While Wall Street credit pricing still looks calm, the “real economy” stress gauges are flashing late-cycle warning lights. This disconnect matters for Bitcoin because its path to $100,000 is no longer just about crypto-native […]
The post Bitcoin price recovery dream meets $18.8 trillion household debt, and one Fed decision could flip everything appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Kevin Warsh’s push for a new Fed–Treasury “accord” is reigniting a familiar market argument: whether Washington is drifting toward a softer-rate, higher-liquidity regime that tends to favor hard assets, including bitcoin and crypto, even if it raises the stakes for bonds. The debate flared after Bloomberg reported that Kevin Warsh floated the idea of “a new accord with the Treasury Department,” echoing the 1951 agreement that redefined the relationship between the two institutions. Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the concept could amount to a limited bureaucratic revamp, but a more ambitious effort could “see increased volatility and concern over the US central bank’s independence,” depending on how explicitly it links the Fed’s balance sheet decisions to Treasury financing. Looming over the idea is the political pressure to treat debt-service costs as a policy constraint. Bloomberg pointed to interest costs “running at an annual clip of around $1 trillion,” and quoted SGH Macro Advisors’ Tim Duy warning that an accord could be read as something more than process reform. “Rather than insulating the Fed, it could look more like a framework for yield-curve control,” Duy said. “A public agreement that synchronizes the Fed’s balance sheet with Treasury financing explicitly ties monetary operations to deficits.” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Can Bitcoin Get The Bid? In bitcoin circles, the accord conversation is being interpreted through the lens of yield-curve control (YCC) and debt monetization, not just the path of the policy rate. Luke Gromen framed it bluntly, citing a recent FFTT view: “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” He added a familiar punchline for macro traders: “Math > Narratives (again).” “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” -FFTT, last week Math > Narratives (again) pic.twitter.com/aHMDlz2jzM — Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) February 8, 2026 Analyst Lukas Ekwueme took the argument further: “Warsh, the next Fed chair, will inflate the debt away. He is in favor of yield curve control. This means pegging US short-term interest rates to an artificially low level. The Fed commits to buying unlimited amounts above that level to push interest rates down.” In that telling, the Fed pegs yields at “an artificially low level” and backs the peg with potentially unlimited purchases — a structure Ekwueme compared to the World War II era. He argued the political logic is straightforward: nominating someone “more hawkish than Powell” would clash with Trump’s prior attacks on the Fed for being too hawkish, making a dovish tilt the more consistent outcome. Bull Theory, a crypto-focused account, echoed the historical parallel while stressing that Warsh’s public framing is also about reducing the Fed’s entanglement in long-duration government financing. The account argued Warsh could prefer a portfolio shift toward Treasury bills, a smaller balance sheet, and clearer limits on when large bond-buying programs can occur — potentially with “closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.” But it also warned the market shouldn’t confuse “limits” with “tightening” if the end result is a policy mix that suppresses real yields and keeps liquidity conditions easy. CoinFund President Christopher Perkins added: “I continue to think that the crypto markets got the Warsh appointment wrong. A new Fed-Treasury Accord is the plan…has been all along. Additional coordination, or any shift in responsibilities to Scott Bessent and the US Treasury will bullish for crypto IMO–once things settle. At least for the next 3 years.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? For bitcoin, the central question is the direction of real yields and the credibility of the “independence” anchor because both feed into how investors price fiat debasement risk and liquidity scarcity. The pro-crypto interpretation is consistent: if an accord evolves into a framework that caps parts of the curve or otherwise lowers real yields, it can push capital out the risk-free complex and into assets that behave like inflation hedges or duration substitutes. Bull Theory put it in plain terms: “If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto. Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives.” The caveat is that the same setup could increase volatility in rates markets. Bloomberg flagged that an ambitious accord could spook investors about the Fed’s independence, while Bull Theory argued that reduced Fed support for long-term yields alongside heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the curve and lift term premiums. For crypto traders, that combination can create a two-speed regime: supportive liquidity narratives on one hand, and sudden risk-off impulses if bond volatility spills into broader financial conditions. At press time, BTC traded at $69,151. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period. Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates. Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month. BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
XRP investors are closely monitoring market signals as the cryptocurrency navigates turbulent trading conditions and choppy price action. A recent analysis by market analyst Egrag Crypto identifies a critical exit candle, which could signal the next major step for XRP holders. As volatility increases and downside risks intensify, traders are debating whether to hold, sell, or buy more assets. Analyst Identifies XRP Investors’ Next Exit Candle Egrag Crypto shared a cautious chart analysis for XRP on X this week, highlighting the importance of understanding upcoming price movements if the market is indeed in a bearish phase. He warned that if traders truly believed XRP could decline another 50-60%, then the pump after this price crash should be considered the traders’ next exit candle. Related Reading: XRP Price Falls Below $1.6: You Won’t Believe What Institutions Are Doing Amid The Crash Although he highlighted an exit pump for investors, Egrag Crypto stated that he will not sell his XRP and intends to hold it even if prices fall below $1. He emphasized that, unless XRP breaks below the blue support channel in the chart, his strategy remains long-term, ignoring the market noise. The analyst further noted that XRP’s market structure could soon challenge bearish sentiment, potentially forcing many traders to exit in panic. He said that external factors, such as regulatory changes in the United States (US), could pose significant risks for investors. In particular, Egrag Crypto highlighted the possibility of US President Donald Trump appointing Kevin Warsh as new FED chair, replacing former chairman Jay Clayton. The crypto expert said that if this happens, things could get even worse in the market, potentially accelerating downside pressure. Despite the warnings of a bearish outlook for XRP, Egrag Crypto emphasized that many investors will follow their own strategies. He said that some will continue to hold XRP even if it goes back to $0.5, marking a more than 83% decline from its price high above $3 earlier last year. He also stated that other investors might see the decline as an opportunity to buy and accumulate more tokens, ahead of any future price surges. Market Discipline and Emotional Strategy Remain Critical At the start of his post, Egrag Crypto stressed that his XRP chart analysis is meant to guide investors facing panic, confusion, or emotional overload due to recent market downturns and sudden price crashes. He compared being a crypto investor and trader to competitive sports like basketball or football, describing it as a game that requires skills, preparation, and patience to succeed. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price Is Not A ‘Crypto’ Question, But A Systemically Important Liquidity Asset Since the market runs 24/7, Egrag Crypto asserts that managing both emotional and financial resources is essential. He advised traders to step away from the market when needed and avoid letting any asset dominate their emotional state. He also highlighted the importance of strategy and discipline when investing or trading. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin slid hard over the weekend and stayed low into Monday, leaving traders on edge and pushing many to reduce risk. Prices slipped from roughly $84,000 to about $74,600 in a matter of days, a drop that erased a chunk of recent gains and forced quick reassessments across markets. Nervousness around Federal Reserve leadership, rising job worries, and fresh geopolitical flashpoints all piled up at once. Related Reading: Gold Vs. XRP: One Asset Just Added 20x The Other’s Market Value Average ETF Price Above Market According to Coinglass, the combined assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs sit near $113 billion, while reports note they hold around 1.28 million BTC. Based on those figures, the typical ETF buying price works out to an average of roughly $87,830 per coin — well above current trading levels. That gap means many ETF positions are showing losses on paper right now. Some funds kept buying earlier and are holding positions that are underwater. BTC is trading below the U.S. ETFs avg cost basis after the 2nd & 3rd biggest outflow weeks ever (last week and week before) (and last week’s outflow will increase after IBIT reports friday’s numbers tomorrow) this means the average bitcoin ETF purchase is underwater pic.twitter.com/XowzrnBaSM — Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) February 2, 2026 Outflows Pick Up Over the last two weeks, investors pulled close to $3 billion from the 11 spot ETFs, with one week seeing $1.50 billion leave and the prior week $1.30 billion, according to CoinGlass. Those moves suggest some market participants are locking in gains or cutting exposure after the recent run-up. At the same time, cumulative ETF inflows remain materially lower than earlier peaks; buying has not fully come back even as some holders remain steady. Technical Signals And Bear Fears Reports note that spot BTC is down roughly 40% from its October peak while ETF AUM has fallen by about 31%. That divergence has analysts warning that sustained weak demand could push Bitcoin into a deeper downtrend. Technical charts show longer-term sell pressure building in certain measures. If demand fails to reappear, momentum could carry prices lower and extend selling across crypto markets. Policy, Politics, And Market Mood Market watchers point to extra uncertainty around monetary policy and geopolitics as fuel for the recent moves. Reports have disclosed that the proposed US Clarity Act stalled in Washington. At the same time, headlines about tensions in the Middle East and trade friction added to a rush for traditional safe havens like gold and the dollar. Even a hint of policy change matters: US President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair was discussed by investors as another factor shaping expectations. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Liquidity And The Road Ahead Institutional holders have not all capitulated. Many have been described as holding on, which can cushion sharp drops. But when the average cost basis for major ETF holders is above the current market price, confidence can be fragile. Liquidity has thinned in certain windows, and that makes price swings larger. A recovery requires renewed buying from both retail and big investors, otherwise sellers may dictate direction for longer. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
President Trump has officially chosen former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, replacing Jerome Powell, with Senate confirmation still pending. Warsh, who served on the Fed from 2006 to 2011 and later worked in economic research and policy, is seen as experienced but likely to favor tighter monetary policy, …
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a meeting today to decide on interest rates. The decision and the official statement from the Fed will be shared at 12:30 AM IST. After that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 1:00 AM IST to explain the decision and answer questions. This is when we find out if …
US President Donald Trump has once again turned attention to monetary policy, saying interest rates will fall sharply once he names a new Federal Reserve chair to replace Jerome Powell. Speaking in Iowa on January 27, Trump said his pick would usher in a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle, reinforcing his long-held criticism that the Fed …
Crypto markets are set for a volatile week as several major U.S. economic events take place, increasing uncertainty among investors. How crypto prices move in the coming days may indicate whether the market is heading for a deeper correction or preparing for a bullish move. The key events start on January 28 with a speech …
All eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve today as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its policy update at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markets widely expect the Fed …
With the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest policy decision, markets are calm but not relaxed. Interest rates are widely expected to stay where they are, yet Bitcoin traders are paying close attention to what comes next. Veteran financial trader Matthew Dixon said interest rates are likely to remain unchanged at the upcoming FOMC …
Whale-sized Bitcoin holders are piling up more coins even as prices wobble. According to blockchain tracker Santiment, wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC added 104,340 BTC in recent weeks. Related Reading: Gold Becomes The Whale Safe Haven As Bitcoin Takes A Back Seat Reports note that total supply held by these large wallets hit 7.17 million BTC, the highest level since September 15, 2025. Mid-sized holders joined in too, adding roughly $3.21 billion worth of Bitcoin between January 10 and January 19. Small retail wallets moved the other way, offloading about 132 BTC, worth around $11.66 million. Whales Push Their Stakes Higher The numbers point to patient buying by big players. Large transfers of $1 million or more have climbed to a two-month high, which suggests heavy participants are active on the network again. According to Santiment, this kind of flow is often tied to institutions and wealthy investors moving coins between custody, exchanges, and private wallets. Some of those moves are driven by strategic choices; some are meant to secure holdings. Either way, a growing pile in whale hands changes where supply sits. Smaller holders are stepping back, while the so-called smart money increases exposure. Reports say mid-sized wallets — those holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — were net buyers in the same stretch. ???? Large Bitcoin whales are accumulating at an encouraging pace, wallets with at least 1K $BTC have collectively accumulated 104,340 more coins (a +1.5% rise). Additionally, the amount of $1M+ daily transfers is back up to 2-month high levels. ???? Chart: https://t.co/CJOfiOBbWU pic.twitter.com/4loxDFtUdb — Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 25, 2026 Price Action And Market Signals Bitcoin’s price has not matched the upbeat on-chain action. Trading was around $87,730 at one point, with intraday swings between $86,500 and $87,500. The alpha crypto asset was down about 0.5% over 24 hours and roughly 5.4% over the prior week. Volumes have ticked up, though, which makes the case that some investors are stepping in at these levels. The picture is mixed: on-chain accumulation suggests a base is being formed, but macro headlines keep the market on edge. On-Chain Strength Versus Headlines A growing stash by big holders can support a future rally if external stress eases. Yet prices move on more than Bitcoin flows. Large transfers and rising accumulation mean demand exists under the surface, but that demand has yet to fully push the market higher. Macro Risks And Market Jitters Geopolitical worries are casting a long shadow. Reports say US President Donald Trump has moved warships toward areas of tension, and prediction markets show a significant chance that the US could strike Iran by June. Trade friction with Canada over recent auto rules has raised fresh political noise, and Polymarket shows the probability of a US government shutdown above 70%. These are real risks that can lift oil, rattle markets, and sap appetite for risk assets. Related Reading: Money Keeps Leaving: Bitcoin ETFs Shed $1.72 Billion In Just 5 Sessions Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Powell could signal a "dovish pause," but his comments on other issues may temper the bullish reaction in BTC and other risk assets.
Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week. The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers. Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested. More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin pushed past $95,000 on Tuesday, drawing attention from traders and analysts who say real buying of the coin, rather than bets on derivatives, is driving the move. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New Power Buyers: Companies Bought 3 Times What Miners Produced According to figures from Coingecko, the cryptocurrency was trading at $95,250 at the time of publication, after a 4.50% gain over 24 hours. Reports have disclosed that $269 million in Bitcoin short positions were wiped out in that span, a wave of liquidations that helped add upward momentum. Spot Buying Fuels The Move Several market watchers pointed to spot purchases as the main force. Crypto analyst Will Clemente posted on X that the rally appears to be “led by spot buying.” That matters because buying the actual asset signals direct demand for Bitcoin itself, not just betting via futures or options. Short sellers were hit hard; their positions were closed out as prices jumped, and that squeeze added fuel to the advance. Seems like this rally on Bitcoin is led by spot buying and getting faded by perps as funding goes negative while open interest rises + most spot volume in days. (disclosure currently long btc) pic.twitter.com/pL9C8GFJYR — Will (@WClementeIII) January 13, 2026 Calls For $100k And The Odds Some traders are now predicting a quick run to six figures, saying that it is quite clear Bitcoin could reach $100K in the coming weeks and that any dips should be bought. Based on reports from Polymarket, the prediction markets place about 51% odds on Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by Feb. 1 and show a 23% chance of a $105,000 print. Bitcoin last fell below $100,000 on Nov. 13, leaving a resistance level that bulls want to clear. History Gives A Mixed Signal January’s record for Bitcoin has been modest on average, delivering roughly a 4% gain since 2013. February has tended to be stronger, with an average return of 13%. These averages do not guarantee the path ahead, but they give traders a context for how the market has behaved in recent years. Market moves can be quick. They can also stall. Macro Risks And Technical Levels Traders were watching $90,000 as an important support level while Bitcoin cruised past $95k ahead of US inflation data that could shift bets about rate cuts. Safe-haven demand has been in play as geopolitics and questions about central bank independence weigh on global markets. Price action is currently tight, with many saying the market sits inside a narrow band and will likely break out one way or the other. ???? Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are rebounding. $94K has just been crossed again for $BTC, and there will likely be retail FOMO creeping in if crypto’s top asset begins teasing $100K in the next few days. ???? In the chart below, high spikes of: ???? #Lower or… pic.twitter.com/5pcwtB0mls — Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 13, 2026 Retail FOMO Could Add Fuel Meanwhile, crypto sentiment tracker Santiment warned that renewed teasing of $100K could pull retail traders back in, sparking fresh FOMO across the market. Related Reading: Futures Frenzy Pushed Crypto Exchange Volume To Nearly $80 Trillion In 2025 If that happens, more buying from everyday investors could push prices higher quickly. But flows can reverse fast too, and large macro surprises or a loss of momentum would test the bulls. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Markets pulled $454 million from crypto exchange-traded products last week as investors stepped back amid rising bets that the US Federal Reserve may not cut rates soon. Related Reading: CZ Fuels Optimism As Binance Coin’s $1,000 Target Trends According to CoinShares data and market reports, the move erased much of the early-week gains that had pushed roughly $1.5 billion into the sector during the first two trading days. The shift was sharp and broad, though a few assets saw money flow in. Smart Money Flees Bitcoin While Some Altcoins Attract Cash Bitcoin-linked products bore the brunt of withdrawals, with about $405 million leaving Bitcoin ETPs. Ethereum funds were also hit, posting roughly $116 million in outflows. Multi-asset crypto products reported net redemptions near $21 million. Based on reports, these outflows came as recent inflation and jobs data made investors lower the odds of a March Fed rate cut, weakening appetite for risk assets that had been boosted by earlier optimism. Selective Inflows Show Pockets Of Interest But not all tokens were abandoned. XRP funds drew around $46 million in fresh money, while Solana products attracted about $33 million. Smaller tokens, including some newer layer-one projects, picked up modest flows as investors hunted for opportunities beyond the main leaders. Total assets under management across global crypto ETPs remained near $182 billion, a figure that shows scale despite the weekly redemptions. Regional Patterns Reveal US Outflows And Overseas Inflows According to regional flow data, US-linked crypto investment products saw roughly $569 million exit last week. That outflow contrasted with inflows in some European and North American markets: Germany attracted about $59 million, Canada added $25 million, and Switzerland drew roughly $21 million. The pattern suggests capital moved away from US vehicles and into other jurisdictions where investor appetite held up better. What Traders And Analysts Are Saying Based on reports from market analysts, the reversal came as traders reassessed the timing of monetary easing. With inflation readings remaining firmer than expected and the labor market showing resilience, market pricing shifted and risk assets were repriced. Some analysts warned that volatility could persist while others noted that pockets of demand for specific altcoins might support short-term rallies. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Peak Might Ignite ADA’s Rally, Says Cardano Creator According to observers, the outflows highlight how sensitive crypto fund flows are to macroeconomic signals. While $454 million is a meaningful weekly move, the sector’s overall AUM near $182 billion means a single week does not rewrite the market picture. Investors will likely watch upcoming economic releases and Fed communications closely; fund flows are expected to respond quickly to any sign that rate-cut hopes are returning or fading further. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are rising today, with the flagship crypto rising to as high as $93,000. This market rally comes on the back of several factors, including the U.S.-Venezuela escalations, which have increased risk sentiment. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Are Up In an X post, market commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted that risky assets seem to be gaining momentum despite the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan president Maduro. This suggests risk sentiment may be back after the year-end decline in 2025, which has contributed to the recent rise in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices. Related Reading: Here’s How Much BlackRock Spent Buying Bitcoin And Ethereum In 2025 The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are also rising on the back of an increase in the M2 money supply, which now stands at $22.4 trillion, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. This is bullish for crypto assets as some of this liquidity is expected to flow into the crypto ecosystem. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt continues to rise, standing at $38.6 trillion, a development that is bullish for crypto as investors hedge against inflation by allocating to these asset classes. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the Fed has also been carrying out its Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), which experts such as James Lavish have described as a form of quantitative easing (QE), which is positive for the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has even predicted that BTC could rally to as high as $200,000 on the back of this move from the Fed. Meanwhile, the Fed has also been injecting liquidity into the economy through the New York Fed’s repo operations. Crypto Bulls Are Back In Control Market analyst Ted Pilliows also suggested that the crypto bulls are back in control, which is why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are rising. In an X post, he noted that BTC has large sell orders from the $92,000 to $95,000 level on Binance. Ted added that if bulls push BTC above the $95,000 level, there is very little resistance until $100,000, suggesting a rally to this psychological level could be on the cards. Related Reading: Dogecoin Reclaiming $0.128 Support Could Signal The Perfect Chance For Long Positions In another X post, the market analyst noted that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium is recovering, with institutional demand for BTC picking up again. SoSoValue data show that Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $471.14 million on January 2, their largest since December 17. A sustained daily net inflow could lead to higher prices for BTC, which is also a positive for the Ethereum and Dogecoin prices. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $92,400, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Prediction markets and analyst desks are sending different signals about Bitcoin’s near-term path. Traders on Polymarket appear cautious, while some big-name firms keep calling for big gains in 2026. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators Market Odds And Trader Caution According to Polymarket prices, Bitcoin has just a 23% chance of reaching $150,000 before 2027. The odds are higher at lower targets: 47% for $120,000, 35% for $130,000 and 29% for $140,000. Traders are most comfortable with $100,000, which carries about an 80% chance. That spread shows bettors are pricing risk tightly as the clock runs toward the new year. Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, a fact that has likely cooled some enthusiasm. Reports have disclosed that gold and silver hit fresh highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, while crypto prices held mostly flat. The old four-year halving cycle that many chartists relied on is being questioned, and that doubt is being priced in. Technical Signals Based on the latest Bitcoin price outlook, BTC is expected to climb 3% to about $91,815 by February 1, 2026. Technical signals point to a Bearish mood, while the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting Fear. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin posted gains on 15 of those days, or 50%, with price swings averaging 2%. Policy Shifts Could Change The Math US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair soon, and many market participants are betting that interest rates will be cut afterward. That idea has already helped send precious metals higher. At the same time, regulators in Washington are pushing crypto bills such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which backers say could give clearer rules and, in time, more institutional interest. Analysts Still Offer Bullish Targets Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026, citing stronger institutional interest and better regulatory clarity as reasons for his bullish outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might Not Be New: Data Points To A 2-Month Slide Analysts at JPMorgan have suggested a theoretical Bitcoin price around $170,000 in 2026, based on a model comparing Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and assuming continued capital flows into the crypto market. Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook expects Bitcoin to exceed its previous all-time high in the first half of 2026, implying a move above its record peak of around $126,000 (though not giving a specific numerical target, the implication is toward significant upward momentum). Policymakers, traders and analysts are all weighing different risks. Market prices reflect caution today, while forecasts offer a brighter view for the months ahead. Which one proves right will depend on policy moves, investor appetite and whether new trading patterns replace the cycle many thought they could count on. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes highlight a steady but moderate U.S. economic growth, with the labor market slowing and wage increases staying in line with last year. Officials warned that a potential government shutdown could drag on near-term GDP. Looking ahead, the Fed expects growth to run slightly above potential after 2025, with inflation …
Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are entering the New Year under pressure after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December policy meeting. While the Fed delivered a rate cut last month, the message that followed was far less supportive for risk assets. Policymakers made it clear they see little urgency to ease …
The idea that Bitcoin’s halving operates on a fixed four-year timetable has become one of the most oversimplified narratives in the crypto markets. While the halving still reduces new supply, its influence is no longer confined to predictable timelines or uniform outcomes. As BTC matures into a globally traded asset, the forces shaping its market behavior have expanded beyond the event. How The Cycle Narrative Became Oversimplified In an X post, an analyst known as Deg_ape revealed that the Bitcoin halving cycle was never a rigid four-year clock. BTC’s cycle has always been about phase transitions, shifting liquidity conditions, and market behavior, but never about buying every four years and selling four years later. This cycle actually maps macro bear phases that expand, contract, overlap, and stretch based on macro flows and positioning. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details The four-year cycle still exists, but it is not a linear process. Deg_ape explains that BTC halvings act as a structural anchor, not a price guarantee. This is why market tops usually arrive later than most expect and why bear markets last longer than people can tolerate. Trying to time the BTC market cycle without understanding that these phase dynamics can lead to expensive mistakes. Kyle Chassé has pointed out that Bitcoin dipped, and traders stopped watching the printer, which is a big mistake. This is the most dangerous divergence in the market as price is down, but liquidity is vertical. While traders were panicking and selling their slips, the US Treasury and the Fed quietly injected around $130 billion of fresh liquidity into the system. This shows that liquidity would lead the price, but it won’t do it instantly. There’s a big lag as liquidity will flood the market first, then the assets will reprice. However, a red candle on a green liquidity chart isn’t a crash, but a mispricing. While the printer is screaming up, the price chart is whispering down. Why Retail Holders Are Capitulating At A Historic Rate A crypto analyst known as OnChainCollege outlined that retail holders are under pressure. On-chain data shows the deepest 30-day balance decline among retail wallets since 2018, a level typically associated with periods of extreme fear and capitulation. While retail balances are falling sharply, larger holder cohorts are quietly absorbing the difference. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Exhaustion? BTC Whales Close Long Positions After Extreme Upside Bets The market sentiment has split into two groups with polar-opposite perspectives from retail that are reacting to price action against larger holders that are responding to structure, liquidity, and long-term positioning. In the meantime, the OG whales have continued to distribute throughout this bull market, but Mega whales and institutional participants are stepping in as the marginal buyers. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The race to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is heating up, with President Donald Trump expanding his shortlist to include current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. The move highlights Trump’s main objective: appointing a Fed Chair who supports deep interest rate cuts to boost economic growth. With Powell’s term ending in May next year, the …
Michael Arrington, the founder of TechCrunch and CrunchBase, has placed XRP among his largest personal crypto holdings, according to a recent social post. Related Reading: Ethereum Meets Wall Street: JPMorgan Rolls Out Tokenized Fund He listed XRP as one of his top five positions by dollar value, alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Immutable. The disclosure landed plenty of attention online and reignited debate about who is buying what and why. Arrington’s Holdings And Community Reaction Reports have disclosed that his post drew heavy engagement, with replies running the gamut from Bitcoin-only stances to more mixed portfolios. Several industry figures echoed Arrington’s mix; Tony Edward, for example, listed XRP with BTC and ETH when discussing core positions. The debate was loud and fast on social feeds. Some users framed the move as a vote of confidence. Others warned that one investor’s choices do not equal a market-wide shift. Tell me your top five crypto holdings (by total dollar value). Mine are XRP, BTC, ETH and IMX — Michael Arrington ????☠️ (@arrington) December 13, 2025 Institutional Moves Follow Based on reports, Arrington’s public support is tied to direct institutional activity. In October, Arrington Capital joined Ripple and SBI Holdings to back an initiative by Evernorth aimed at building a large institutional XRP treasury. The project, which has been described in some circles as among the biggest of its kind, aims to increase institutional use of XRP and to support on-ledger activity such as decentralized finance and lending. That involvement means Arrington is more than a vocal supporter; he is also tied to projects that could change how institutions use the token. XRP Market Moves And Key Figures XRP’s market picture has been mixed. As of December 16, 2025, the token was trading around $1.98, having held in a roughly $2.00 to $2.20 band in recent sessions. There was a small daily lift of about 1.2% to roughly $2.08 on Monday, which helped the token cover some ground after early-December weakness. The year has seen bigger swings: XRP peaked near $3.65 in July before giving back some gains. Activity in regulated derivatives has also grown. Reports point to XRP futures on the CME reaching a record open interest of roughly $3 billion in late October 2025, a figure that market watchers say reflects rising institutional appetite for regulated exposure. Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Intact, Yet No Longer Purely Market-Driven A Past Claim That No Longer Holds Arrington has previously highlighted XRP’s strong performance. In March, he tweeted that XRP had been the best-performing major asset across multiple time frames — 90 days, 180 days, one year and three years. That claim no longer lines up with current rankings. Performance metrics have shifted since then, and the statement has been overtaken by later results. Featured image from Bitpanda Blog, chart from TradingView