Crypto analyst Tony Severino has revealed a historical bearish pattern that could send the Bitcoin price to as low as $42,000. This bearish outlook for BTC comes amid a rebound for the flagship crypto, with a recent surge above the psychological $90,000 level. Bitcoin Price Risks 50% Drop To $42,000 Based On This Pattern In an X post, Severino stated that the Bitcoin price likes to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its impulse. Based on this, the analyst indicated that BTC could crash to as low as $42,000 on wave C of this move to the downside. His accompanying chart showed that this decline could happen sometime at the start of next year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Can Hit These ‘Realistic’ Bullish Targets Before The Bear Market Begins This bearish Bitcoin price prediction comes amid BTC’s rebound above $90,000 following the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The flagship crypto has also rebounded amid optimism of another rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows there is almost a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates again this month. However, despite these macro positives for the Bitcoin price, analysts such as Tony Severino have suggested that BTC is in a bear market and is likely to trend lower in the coming months. In an X post, he highlighted the BTC monthly chart, suggesting it showed a subtle volume breakout that confirmed a “not-so-subtle” trendline breakdown. Meanwhile, market technician JT described statements that the QT ending is bullish for the Bitcoin price as being a “fallacy.” He alluded to the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may hike rates this month as one of the stressors to liquidity beyond QT. Peter Brandt Predicts Drop To Mid $40ks In an X post, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin price could drop to mid $40,000. He stated that the upper boundary of the lower green zone starts below $70,000 and that the lower support boundary is in the mid $40,000. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted that BTC could drop to around $50,000 before it then rallies to around $200,000 in the next bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The veteran analyst noted that there have been five major bull market cycles for the Bitcoin price since its inception. He further stated that in all previous cycles, the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75% plus correction with no exception. As such, he expects BTC to undergo another significant correction in this cycle, potentially dropping below $50,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $93,000, up almost 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Macro strategist Alex Krüger is tying Bitcoin’s next macro chapter directly to the coming reshuffle at the Federal Reserve, warning that investors are underpricing how far US rates could fall under a Trump-aligned central bank. In a long X post titled “2026: The Year of the Fed’s Regime Change,” he argues that “the Federal Reserve as we know it ends in 2026” and that the most important driver of asset returns will be a new, much more dovish Fed led by Kevin Hassett. His base case is that this shift becomes a key driver for risk assets broadly and Bitcoin in particular in 2026, even if crypto markets are currently trading as if nothing fundamental has changed. Why The Federal Reserve Will Dramatically Change Krüger’s scenario is anchored in personnel. He notes that prediction platform Kalshi put the odds of Hassett becoming chair at 70% as of 2 December, and describes him as a supply-side loyalist who “champions a ‘growth-first’ philosophy, arguing that with the inflation war largely won, maintaining high real rates is an act of political obstinacy rather than economic prudence.” A few hours after Krüger’s thread, Trump himself added fuel, telling reporters at the White House that he would announce his Fed pick “early next year” and explicitly teasing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possible choice, after saying the search had been narrowed down to one candidate. Related Reading: The December Bitcoin Roadmap: The Signals You Can’t Ignore To explain how this would translate into policy, Krüger reconstructs Hassett’s stance from his own 2024 comments. On 21 November, Hassett said “the only way to explain a Fed decision not to cut in December would be due to anti-Trump partisanship.” Earlier he argued, “If I’m at the FOMC, I’m more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely,” adding, “I agree with Trump that rates can be a lot lower.” Across the year he endorsed expected rate cuts as merely “a start,” called for the Fed to “keep cutting rates aggressively,” and supported “much lower rates,” leading Krüger to place him at 2 on a 1–10 dove–hawk scale, with 1 being the most dovish. Institutionally, Krüger maps a concrete path: Hassett would first be nominated as a Fed governor to replace Stephen Miran when his short term expires in January, then elevated to chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Powell, he assumes, follows precedent by resigning his remaining Board seat after pre-announcing his departure, opening a slot for Kevin Warsh, whom Krüger treats not as a rival but as a like-minded ally who has been “campaigning” for a structural overhaul and arguing that an AI-driven productivity boom is inherently disinflationary. In that configuration, Hassett, Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman form a solidly dovish core, with six other officials seen as movable votes and only two clear hawks on the committee. The main institutional tail risk, in Krüger’s view, is that Powell does not resign his governor seat. He warns that this would be “extremely bearish,” because it would prevent Warsh’s appointment and leave Powell as a “shadow chair,” a rival focal point for FOMC loyalty outside Hassett’s inner circle. He also stresses that the Fed chair has no formal tie-breaking vote; repeated 7–5 splits on 50-basis-point cuts would look “institutionally corrosive,” while a 6–6 tie or a 4–8 vote against cuts “would be a catastrophe,” turning the publication of FOMC minutes into an even more potent market event. On rates, Krüger argues that both the official dot plot and market pricing understate how far policy could be pushed lower. The September median projection of 3.4% for December 2026 is, he says, “a mirage,” because it includes non-voting hawks; by re-labeling dots based on public statements, he estimates the true voters’ median closer to 3.1%. Substituting Hassett and Warsh for Powell and Miran, and using Miran and Waller as proxies for an aggressive-cuts stance, he finds a bimodal distribution with a dovish cluster around 2.6%, where he “anchors” the new leadership, while noting that Miran’s preferred “appropriate rate” of 2.0%–2.5% suggests an even lower bias. Related Reading: Bitcoin Blasts To $92,000, Liquidating $182 Million In Shorts As of 2 December, Krüger notes, futures price December 2026 fed funds at about 3.02%, implying roughly 40 basis points of additional downside if his path is realized. If Hassett’s supply-side view is right and AI-driven productivity pushes inflation below consensus forecasts, Krüger expects pressure for deeper cuts to avoid “passive tightening” as real rates rise. He frames the likely outcome as a “reflationary steepening”: front-end yields collapsing as aggressive easing is priced in, while the long end stays elevated on higher nominal growth and lingering inflation risk. What This Means For Bitcoin That mix, he argues, is explosive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Hassett “would crush the real discount rate,” fueling a multiple-expansion “melt-up” in growth equities, at the cost of a possible bond-market revolt if long yields spike in protest. A politically aligned Fed that explicitly prioritizes growth over inflation targeting is, in Krüger’s words, textbook bullish for hard assets such as gold, which he expects to outperform Treasuries as investors hedge the risk of a 1970s-style policy error. Bitcoin, in Krüger’s telling, should be the cleanest expression of this shift but is currently trapped in its own psychology. Since what he calls the “10/10 shock,” he says Bitcoin has developed “a brutal downside skew,” fading macro rallies and crashing on bad news amid “4-year cycle” top fears and an “identity crisis.” Even so, he concludes that the combination of a Hassett-led Fed and Trump’s deregulation agenda would “override the dominant self-fulfilling bearish psychology, in 2026” — a macro repricing he insists “markets aren’t ready” for yet. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,862 Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin jumped back above key levels on Wednesday, with prices climbing past $93,000 after dipping to $84,400 earlier this month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trail Ends: $29M Seized After European Authorities Shut Down Cryptomixer The move followed a sharp sell-off that removed about $8,000 from the price late over the weekend, and traders pushed the coin to a 24-hour peak of $93,910 on Coingecko. Bitcoin Climbs Above Key Levels According to MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe, regaining ground above $93,000 is important for momentum. He said that if the price holds and breaks higher, a run toward $100,000 becomes more likely. Other analysts echoed the call: Nick Ruck of LVRG Research pointed to macro factors and fresh ETF flows as drivers that could help Bitcoin test six figures in the coming months. This is what you’d want to see. $BTC coming back up again, after a weird move down on the 1st of this month. Now, again, breaking the $92K area is crucial. If that breaks, then I’m sure we’ll start to see a new all-time high and a test at $100K. A great day on the markets. pic.twitter.com/uy6WPabnQ8 — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 2, 2025 ETF Activity And Market Moves Reports have disclosed that ETF-related trading helped lift the market. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded over $1.8 billion in volume within two hours after Vanguard reversed a previous stance, and total spot Bitcoin ETF volume topped $5.1 billion on the day. Market stats showed the broader crypto capitalization rose close to 7% to $3.13 trillion, with BTC dominance climbing to nearly 60%. Bitcoin itself jumped by about 8% after the US market opened, giving larger markets a clear lift. Support Zone Holds Focus Analysts had been watching the $86,000 to $88,000 band as a critical area of support. Based on reports from active market watchers, that range had been tested dozens of times in recent months and holding above it signaled reduced selling pressure. One analyst argued that a break below would likely lead some big players to change tack, moving from buying to selling behavior. Liquidations And Net Inflows Changed The Day Other market observers reported heavy turnover in derivatives and spot markets: over $360 billion in short positions were liquidated, while more than $160 billion was reportedly added back into crypto markets within a 24-hour span. Those figures, if accurate, helped explain the speed of the rebound and the large single-day gains. Related Reading: XRP Is About To Hit A Major Turning Point This Week, Analyst Says What Comes Next For Prices Short-term traders will watch how Bitcoin behaves around $92,000 and whether it can hold above the $86,000–$88,000 floor. Some commentators warned that sudden ETF-driven demand can cause sharp spikes that may not last. Others pointed to possible policy shifts, such as renewed talk of US interest-rate cuts, as reasons why money might flow into major crypto assets in the months ahead. For now, prices sit a little above $92,700 at the time of writing. The market is clearly volatile. Investors and traders will likely need to balance the bullish signs against the risk that a fresh round of selling could wipe gains quickly. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
In a strategic move, Tether has shifted its reserve strategy, reducing its exposure to treasuries while increasing allocations to Bitcoin and gold. The USDT issuer has shown a notable reduction in government debt exposure, paired with an expanded position in hard assets known for durability and independence from traditional financial systems. Treasury Exposure Drops Amid Changing Macro And Regulatory Landscape Stablecoin giant, Tether, has reduced its US Treasury holdings and increased its Gold and Bitcoin reserves. CryptosRus reported on X that Tether is quietly repositioning itself for what the company expects to be the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next round of rate cuts. Related Reading: Rumble At The Core: How Tether Plans To Dominate The US Stablecoin Market According to BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, Tether’s latest reserve update shows a clear shift away from the US treasuries and deeper into BTC and gold, a sign that the company is positioning for a changing macro environment. Furthermore, the Standard & Poor (S&P) Global noted that Tether is now leaning more heavily into assets with larger price swings in value, warning that this mix could expose USDT if markets turn volatile. Meanwhile, the current S&P Global rating on Tether remains weak. Thus, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has pushed back, saying that the company holds no toxic assets. He claims that its rapid growth reflects a broader shift towards new financial systems that operate outside the traditional banking world. Why Attempts To Break Tether Are Difficult In Practice Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has also offered insight into the Tether Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) as it is making its usual rounds again. The narrative is latching onto the company’s latest attestation, showing a notable shift into Gold and Bitcoin to offset declining interest income. Meanwhile, if these risk assets drop by 30%, Tether’s equity buffer could evaporate, creating an environment where Tether will be insolvent, and panic will kick in. Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans However, Ted is steadfast and believes that Tether has been through a decade of this same FUD, and USDT is still sitting at $1.00. They’re fully liquid, but they operate on a fractional-reserve model, much like traditional banks. As long as redemptions remain normal, everything will work smoothly. A problem will only arise if there’s an irrational panic, and then liquidity stress could hit quickly. According to Ted, the USDT isn’t fully backed by cash, but it’s backed by a diverse portfolio that includes the US treasuries, yield-generating assets, and some risk assets. This is all scaled to a massive $174 billion stablecoin. “If someone wants to kill USDT, it’s possible, but I highly doubt it,” Ted noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Expectations are rising for a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, as traders on Polymarket are now almost certain the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points. Just two weeks ago, the market was split on whether the Fed would act, but recent events and Fed comments have shifted sentiment strongly toward …
Bitcoin Price crashed ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech today. The crypto market saw a massive sell-off, and BTC Price fell below $86,500, wiping out over $144 billion from the total crypto market in just a few hours. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana followed suit, pulling altcoins down with Bitcoin. The crypto …
According to exchange data, inflows to trading venues topped 9,000 Bitcoin on Nov. 21 as prices slid to $80,600 on Coinbase — the weakest showing in seven months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces More Downside After Recent Crash, Data Shows Reports show that about 45% of those deposits came in chunks of 100 BTC or more, and on one day large transfers reached 7,000 BTC. The average deposit size in November rose to 1.23 BTC, the largest monthly figure in a year. Those numbers point to more than casual rebalancing; they point to coins being moved where they can be sold. Binance Stablecoins Hit Record According to market coverage, Binance’s stablecoin holdings climbed to a record $51 billion. At the same time, BTC and Ether inflows to exchanges swelled to roughly $40 billion this week, with Binance and Coinbase leading the move. Traders often park funds in dollar-pegged tokens when they want to wait on the sidelines. That build-up means cash is available, but it is sitting idle until sellers either step back or buyers turn up again. Bitcoin exchange inflows are rising as the price drops to ~87K, a seven-month low. Large deposits (100+ BTC) now make up 45% of all inflows, hitting 7K BTC on Nov 21. Large holders are increasingly sending BTC to exchanges, reinforcing the current downtrend. pic.twitter.com/UpN4rAL0FH — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 26, 2025 Analysts Eye Further Pullback Some market watchers warn the recent recovery could be only a pause, flagging remaining margin positions and suggested a test of lower levels. They said a wick into the $70k–$80k zone would be one way to clear out the last pockets of exposure. 10x Research put resistance levels at $92,000 and $101,000 as the key ranges to watch during any rebound. For context, Bitcoin had clawed back above $90,000 and was trading slightly higher at the time of reporting, but it remains down about 28% from the all-time high north of $126,000 reached in October. Short-Term Bounce, Not A Full Recovery Meanwhile, market moves in stocks and crypto have shown mixed signals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were pushing gains as investors bet on a US Fed rate cut, and that helped risk assets. Yet reports from strategists show the usual close link between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has weakened, with Bitcoin’s decline steeper in recent weeks. Ether and many altcoins also faced higher exchange inflows, and several tokens returned to bear-market lows as selling pressure widened. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Reenters ETH Market, Fires Off A $44-M Long What This Means Next Liquidity is present but it is parked in stablecoins, and big holders are still moving assets toward exchanges. A meaningful rally will likely need either heavy buying demand or a clear catalyst that draws those stablecoins back into risk assets. For now, the market sits in a waiting mode: a short rally could continue, but a deeper dip remains possible as positions get cleared and sellers complete their rotations. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Crypto markets are confronting a fast-moving repricing of US monetary policy expectations, and macro trader Alex Krüger argues that even after last week’s sharp dovish turn, futures curves still fail to discount what a Trump-aligned Federal Reserve leadership could look like. Fed Cut Mispricing Sets Up Crypto Repricing Event In a post on X, Krüger shared a CME-derived table of implied policy rates for late-stage 2026 and framed it as the market’s baseline for the post-Powell transition. The table shows an expected fed funds rate of 3.47% for the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting (347 bps), drifting to 3.29% for June 17, 2026 (329 bps), to 3.10% for September 16, 2026 (310 bps), and to 2.99% for December 9, 2026 (299 bps). In other words, the curve prices roughly 48 basis points of easing between late April and early December 2026 about two quarter-point cuts across that span—implying a relatively gradual descent toward just under 3%. Krüger’s core claim is that this path is inconsistent with the policy preferences he associates with the Trump camp, and therefore inconsistent with an “ultra dovish” chair appointment. He situates the April 2026 meeting as the last one under Jerome Powell’s chairmanship, whose four-year term ends in mid-May 2026, and then treats the June 2026 meeting as the first under a new chair. Related Reading: Crypto Crash Is A Forced Crypto Seller Unwind, Glassnode Co-Founders Claim Against that transition, Krüger points to Fed Governor Stephen Miran—whom he casts as a proxy for Trump-world monetary instincts—as advocating a much faster return to neutral. In Krüger’s telling, Miran has argued that the “appropriate fed funds rate” is “roughly 2% to 2.5%,” has linked this year’s tighter stance to a rise in the neutral rate, and has characterized his divergence from colleagues as centered on “speed of cuts,” not destination. Krüger also highlights Miran’s preference for “50 bps cuts” over 25-bp steps as the way to get policy back to neutral. On Krüger’s arithmetic, a futures curve that delivers only about 50 bps of easing from the first post-Powell meeting in June 2026 through December 2026 is not a curve that has truly priced a Trump-era chair willing to front-load larger moves. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Face Third Consecutive Weekly Losses, Totaling $3 Billion In Outflows Put simply, he sees the market as still anchored to a Powell-style glide path, even while political risk is skewing toward more abrupt easing. “The Trump camp wants faster and bigger cuts, many of them. The Fed only cutting 50bps between the new Fed Chair’s FOMC in June and December 2026 falls short. That’s why I sustain an ultra dovish Fed Chair appointed by Trump is not priced in,” Krüger concludes. December Rate Cut Seems Likely The timing of Krüger’s warning matters because the front end has already undergone a dramatic swing. Last week, traders sharply increased the probability of another cut at the Fed’s December meeting after New York Fed President John Williams said rates could fall “in the near term,” a remark that pushed implied odds of a quarter-point December move into the mid-70% range on CME FedWatch, up from roughly 40% the day before. In parallel, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated a baseline in which the Fed cuts in December, then again in March and June 2026, taking the policy band down to roughly 3.00%–3.25%.” We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%,” said Hatzius. GOLDMAN SEES DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR ECONOMY NEXT YEAR Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to cut rates in December, followed by a few more cuts in 2025, bringing rates just above 3%. Chief economist Jan Hatzius warns the economy could slow more than expected, requiring… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 24, 2025 His path is modestly more dovish than what the curve had discounted earlier in the month, but it still resembles the gradualism embedded in Krüger’s CME table: sequential 25-bp steps, aiming for an early-2026 rate around the low-3% area rather than a rapid drop toward the low-2s. For the crypto markets, the dispute is less about whether cuts are coming than about the speed and terminal rate. Crypto is structurally levered to shifts in dollar liquidity and real-rate expectations; what Krüger is flagging is a scenario where the curve’s “destination” and, especially, its pacing remain too conservative relative to a potential political reorientation of the Fed. If traders are right that the Williams-sparked repricing is the beginning of a slower, data-dependent easing cycle, then current crypto asset valuations already incorporate the relevant macro impulse. If Krüger is right, the curve is still missing a regime change in reaction function—one in which larger front-loaded cuts compress cash yields faster than expected, steepen risk-on positioning, and force another round of cross-asset duration and liquidity repricing. That gap between a Powell-era slope and a Trump-era shock path is what he means when he says an ultra-dovish chair “is not priced in” for crypto markets. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.92 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s recent price swings have picked up pace, and market watchers say that option markets may again be calling the shots. Over the past two months volatility has climbed, shifting how traders and investors respond to big moves in BTC. Related Reading: $2 Billion Gone In Minutes: Bitcoin Slide Shakes Crypto World Volatility Numbers Reignite Focus According to Jeff Park, implied volatility had stayed below 80% since US Bitcoin ETFs were approved, But it is now creeping back toward about 60%. That rise matters because option flows can amplify moves — both up and down — when traders reposition quickly. Park pointed to January 2021 as a clear example, when an options-driven surge helped push Bitcoin to a cycle high of $69,000 in November of that year. In other words, swings driven by derivatives are capable of producing outsized trends. Price Drops And Clearing Of Positions Bitcoin tumbled below $85,000 on Thursday, a move that helped trigger liquidations and heightened selling pressure. Reports have disclosed that some losses are tied to highly leveraged positions being forced closed, while other activity appears to come from long-term holders taking profits. Analysts at Bitfinex called much of the action “actical rebalancing,” saying it does not break long-term adoption or fundamentals. Binance CEO Richard Teng is reported to have noted that volatility levels are similar across many asset types right now. Derivatives And Short-Term Shocks Options positioning can make price action sharper because large contracts push traders to hedge or cover quickly, and hedging activity often shows up as rapid moves in the spot market. This mechanism was important in the 2021 run and may be at work again as implied volatility climbs. Traders who watch the volatility surface say early signs of option-driven behavior are visible, even if the current readings are nowhere near the extremes seen in prior cycles. Fed Betting Adds A Macro Twist Meanwhile, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now sees a 71% chance of a 25-basis point cut in December, up from about 30–40% earlier this week. Comments from New York Fed President John Williams helped shift those odds by suggesting policy could move toward neutral, while other Fed officials were quoted by Reuters as taking more cautious stances. A rate cut, if it happens, could give risk assets some lift; a no-show might keep volatility elevated. Related Reading: Kiyosaki Dumps Bitcoin At $90K After Predicting A $250K Moonshot – Here’s Why Markets Watch December For Clues Traders are watching December closely for signals that could either calm markets or add fuel to them. Short-Term swings will likely persist until traders see clearer direction from both macro policy and option desks. Some players will wait for volatility to settle; others will trade around it. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Donald Trump has pushed the Federal Reserve back into the center of the crypto macro narrative, telling reporters he “already” knows who should succeed Jerome Powell and triggering a sharp repricing in real-money prediction markets in favor of Kevin Hassett. In remarks in the Oval Office, Trump said: “I think I already know my choice,” when asked about the next Fed chair. He added that he would “love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back,” a clear swipe at Powell without naming him. Trump also hinted at the shape of his shortlist, saying, “We have some surprising names and we have some standard names that everybody’s talking about. And we may go the standard way. It’s nice to every once in a while go politically correct.” That was enough to move markets. On Polymarket and Kalshi, contracts on “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” quickly converged around Hassett, with odds in the mid-40s to high-40s percent range. Jim Bianco summarized the shift by writing: “He wants Bessent but will take Hassett. The rest get to take selfies in the Oval Office.” In a follow-up, he noted that “Hassett (blue) is separating himself from the pack and is on the verge of being the first person to trade over 50%,” as prediction markets pushed his contract well clear of rivals. Kalshi’s own social media account underscored the move: “BREAKING: Trump thinks he ‘already knows’ who will be next Fed Chair. 47% chance it’s Kevin Hassett.” The pseudonymous trader Byzantine General zoomed out to the timeline, pointing out that “Powell’s term ends May next year,” and sketching out a Q2 scenario with “a FED chair that listens to Trump” and “tariff dividends for plebs,” before cautioning that “you never know with Trump of course, but man, there could be something cooking.” Related Reading: Crypto Market Wipes Out $1 Trillion Since October: Analyzing The Forces Behind The Crash What Hassett Could Mean For The Crypto Market For macro-oriented crypto traders, the key is the policy signal embedded in those probabilities. Hassett is widely perceived as more dovish than Powell and more aligned with Trump’s preference for easier financial conditions. That is why trader CRG (@MacroCRG), framed the moment as the arrival of a “New hand picked super dove as Fed chair coming soon.” Macro and crypto analyst Alex Krüger went further, arguing that the Fed-chair race is the real medium-term driver for risk assets once the current FOMC noise fades. “Here’s the next macro catalyst after the FOMC. A bullish catalyst the market is paying no heed to atm. It’s hard to peer into the horizon when stressed to the marrow about the present,” he wrote, adding that “the most bullish choices would be Hassett (likely), Rieder (possibly) and Zervos (unlikely).” Related Reading: Crypto Carnage Continues — Tom Lee Exposes What’s Really Going On The reason crypto traders care is straightforward: crypto assets trade as high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk assets. A chair seen as more willing to cut rates faster, tolerate easier financial conditions or respond aggressively to equity and growth weakness is, in market logic, a structural tailwind for the long-run liquidity environment that underpins speculative flows into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. At the same time, Trump’s open pressure on Powell and his readiness to talk about replacing the Fed chair in overtly political terms reinforce another strand of the crypto thesis. The more investors worry about the politicization of US monetary policy and the erosion of central-bank independence, the more compelling the “Bitcoin as hedge against political and institutional risk” narrative becomes for a subset of allocators. For now, nothing has changed at the Fed. Powell remains in office, and all that has moved is a set of probability distributions on prediction markets. But as those distributions shift toward Kevin Hassett, crypto traders are already treating the prospective hand-off as a latent, potentially significant bullish tailwind building in the background. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.11 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level in six months and the timing is rough. The drop comes as investors lose confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting. And this is weighing heavily on both stocks and crypto markets. Investors are now getting ready for a busy week of …
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a wave of declines, leaving investors concerned as the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices fall sharply. Despite experiencing a period of recovery earlier this week, all three digital assets are now facing renewed downward pressure. The latest price declines are driven by both macroeconomic uncertainty and internal market factors, underscoring how sensitive the crypto market remains to changes in investor sentiment. FED Skepticism Fuel Decline In Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin The recent decline in cryptocurrency prices comes amid growing doubts over the Federal Reserve’s (FED) approach to interest rates. Recent remarks from FED officials, including the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, have cast uncertainty on whether the central bank will deliver a third consecutive easing of policy during the December FOMC meeting. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Is Important If Wave 5 Corrects To $94,000 According to Bloomberg reports, Kashkari noted that recent economic data suggested more resilience than was initially anticipated, sparking a debate over the necessity of further rate cuts. This cautious stance has unsettled financial markets, causing investors to reconsider earlier positions as former expectations of a rate now appear uncertain. Notably, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin have reacted sharply to the prevailing sentiment caused by the doubts in monetary easing. Their prices have plummeted, accelerating the broader correction that has been dragging on for months. This decline is also being augmented by large-scale whale sell offs and lingering ambiguity surrounding new developments in the previous US government shutdown. How Much BTC, ETH, And DOGE Declined This Week In addition to macroeconomic factors, market dynamics are also contributing to crypto losses. CoinMarketCap’s data shows that the Bitcoin price crashed below $97,000 for the first time since May 2025. It has fallen more than 5% over the week and dropped another 6.4% in a single day. Related Reading: Analysts Share Forecasts As Ethereum Price Struggles Below $4,000, And It’s Very Bearish Amidst this decline, long-term BTC holders are reportedly selling at record levels, fueling the downtrend. Additionally, institutional demand is weakening while investor sentiment has turned negative. Even Spot Bitcoin ETF activity is plummeting, recording over $866.7 million in net outflows yesterday—the second largest in its history. Ethereum has also been hit hard, losing more than 10% in the past 24 hours and over 5% this week. The price has steadily trended downward for weeks and shows no clear signs of recovery. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3,200, down more than 35% from the ATH levels above $4,950 set in August this year. Dogecoin, while only slightly affected by the broader bearish trend, is now trading at $0.165. It has fallen by approximately 2.3% during the week and by an additional 8% in one day. Collectively, these widespread declines suggest that the market may be experiencing a period of extreme stress, as all three cryptocurrencies have recorded double-digit monthly losses. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin dropped to $96,000 on heavy selling Friday, and falling risk appetite, leaving traders and analysts parsing whether this is normal profit-taking or a larger turning point for the market. Related Reading: XRP Earns Academic Praise: University Study Calls It ‘Gold In Your Hands’ According to on-chain and market reports, the drop wiped out more than $700 million in long positions and left November down by more than 10%. Whale Transfers Draw Focus Reports have disclosed that a wallet tied to trader Owen Gunden moved 2,400 Bitcoin — about $237 million — onto the Kraken exchange, a transfer tracked by blockchain watcher Arkham. Based on analysis by Glassnode, long-term holders’ average daily spending rose from over 12,000 BTC per day in early July to roughly 26,000 BTC per day as of this week. OWEN GUNDEN JUST SOLD ANOTHER $290M BTC Owen Gunden just moved all of the remaining BTC out of his accounts. He deposited over HALF of his holdings directly into Kraken, depositing a total of $290.7M of BTC into Kraken. He now has only $250M of Bitcoin remaining. pic.twitter.com/ZUB3aToAgH — Arkham (@arkham) November 13, 2025 That pattern, Glassnode analysts say, looks like orderly distribution by older holders rather than a sudden mass exit. It is being framed as late-cycle profit-taking: regular, steady, and spread out. According to Santiment, Bitcoin has fallen below $100K for the second time this month, triggering a burst of fear and worried posts from retail traders. ???? Bitcoin has dumped below $100K for the second time this month. Predictably, this has caused a wave of FUD and concerned social media posts from retail traders. As shown below: ????: Significant bullish/greedy bias (usually when markets are getting too much FOMO, prices will go… pic.twitter.com/rowUv3xIMd — Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 13, 2025 No Meltdown: Late-Cycle Signals And On-Chain Readings Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, disclosed that structured selling and steady rotation of gains often show up in late-cycle phases. He cautioned that this phase doesn’t automatically signal a final peak, provided there are still buyers ready to take in the extra supply. Being in a late cycle doesn’t mean the market has hit a ceiling, he pointed out. It just shows momentum has eased, and bigger forces like macro trends and liquidity are now in control, he said. “Rate-cut doubts and recent market weakness have slowed the climb, not ended it,” Liu said. In other words, there’s no meltdown or anything like it. On-chain indicators are being watched closely; Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit ratio stood near 0.476, a level some traders interpret as hinting at short-term lows forming. That reading is only one of several signals, Liu added, and must be tracked alongside liquidity and macro conditions. A closer look at the monthly average spending by long-term holders reveals a clear trend: outflows have climbed from roughly 12.5k BTC/day in early July to 26.5k BTC/day today (30D-SMA). This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a… pic.twitter.com/wECe58CV66 — glassnode (@glassnode) November 13, 2025 Market Pain Came From Stocks And Rates The cryptocurrency sell-off came as crypto-related stocks plunged. Broader markets were weak as well, with the Nasdaq down 2% and the S&P 500 off 1.3%. Cipher Mining fell 14%, Riot Platforms and Hut 8 dropped 13%, while MARA Holdings and Bitmine Immersion slid over 10%. Coinbase and Strategy were down about 7%. Based on reports, large institutional flows have pressured prices. Firms including BlackRock, Binance and Wintermute reportedly sold more than $1 billion in Bitcoin, a wave of selling that produced a quick 5% drop inside minutes. Meanwhile, social sentiment turned sharply negative, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 15, reflecting “extreme fear” among traders. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Arthur Hayes argues that the next leg of the crypto cycle will be driven not by a headline pivot to quantitative easing, but by a “stealth” version executed through the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF). In a new essay titled “Hallelujah” published on November 4, 2025, the former BitMEX CEO lays out a balance-sheet-driven case that persistent US fiscal deficits, hedge-fund demand for Treasuries financed via repo, and the Fed’s need to cap funding stress will translate into incremental dollar liquidity that ultimately “pumps the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos.” As he frames the core mechanism: “Government issued debt grows the money supply.” Hayes’ logic chain begins with an observation on political incentives and the arithmetic of public finance. Governments can fund spending with “savings or debt,” and in his view elected officials “will always favor borrowing from the future to get re-elected in the present.” For the United States, he contends that the trajectory is already set: “Here are the estimates from the TBTF banksters, and a few US government agencies. As you can see, the estimates are for ~$2 trillion deficits funded by ~$2 trillion of borrowing.” In his model, once one accepts that “Yearly Federal Deficit = Yearly Treasury Debt Issuance Amount,” the next critical question is who actually buys that debt, and on what financing. Fed’s Stealth QE Will “Pump Crypto” He dismisses foreign central banks as dependable marginal buyers after the US sanctioned and immobilized Russian reserves in 2022. “If Pax Americana is willing to steal Russia’s money… then no foreign owner of treasuries is ever safe,” he writes, concluding reserve managers “would rather buy gold than treasuries.” He likewise downplays the capacity of the US household sector given that “the 2024 personal savings rate was 4.6%” while “the US federal deficit was 6% of GDP,” and he argues the largest US money-center banks have increased their Treasury holdings by only “~$300 billion” in fiscal 2025 against issuance of “$1,992 billion,” making them meaningful but not decisive. Related Reading: Caution In The Crypto Market: Expert Warns Of Bearish Phase Unfolding This November Instead, Hayes positions relative-value hedge funds—particularly those booking positions via Cayman vehicles—as the marginal, price-setting bid for US duration. Citing a recent Federal Reserve study, he quotes: “Cayman Islands hedge funds purchased, on net, $1.2 trillion of Treasury securities… [between] January 2022 and December 2024… [and] absorbed 37% of net issuance of notes and bonds.” The trade architecture is straightforward: “Buy a cash treasury debt security vs. sell the corresponding treasury futures contract,” then lever the tiny basis through repo funding. Because the edge is “measured in basis points,” the trade only works if leverage is cheap and predictable every day. That funnel leads directly to the SRF. Hayes lays out the Fed’s short-rate corridor—“Upper and Lower Fed Funds; currently these equal 4.00% and 3.75% respectively”—and the policy plumbing that keeps market rates inside it: the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) at the lower bound for money-market funds (MMFs) and banks, interest on reserve balances (IORB) for banks in the middle, and the SRF at the upper bound as the emergency spigot. Lower Fed Funds = RRP < IORB < SRF = Upper Fed Funds,” he summarizes, adding that the target, SOFR, normally oscillates inside the band. Stress occurs “when SOFR trades above the Upper Fed Funds,” which he calls “a problem” because “the filthy fiat financial system shuts down” once participants can’t roll overnight leverage at a stable rate. In his telling, the cash supply that cushions SOFR is structurally thinner than it was when the Fed began quantitative tightening in early 2022. MMFs, he says, have drained the RRP to zero because “the T-bill rate is so attractive,” making them less available as repo cash providers. That leaves banks, who will supply liquidity so long as they have ample reserves, but “banks lost trillions in reserves since the Fed began QT.” Set against that diminished supply of cash is relentless demand for repo financing from RV funds, whose “marginal” Treasury purchases must be levered. If SOFR threatens to pierce the ceiling and repo becomes unreliable, the Fed’s SRF must backstop the system to prevent a funding accident. “Because a similar situation occurred in 2019, the Fed created the SRF,” Hayes writes. “The Fed can supply an infinite amount of cash using its printing press at SRF as long as one provides an acceptable form of collateral.” His conclusion is blunt: “If the SRF balances are above zero, then we know the Fed is cashing the checks of the politicians using printed money.” Hayes labels this dynamic “Stealth QE.” He argues the optics of outright balance-sheet expansion via asset purchases are now politically toxic—“QE is a dirty word… QE = money printing = inflation”—so the central bank will prefer to meet marginal dollar demand via SRF lending rather than by visibly creating excess reserves. What This Means For The Crypto Market The result is functionally similar from a liquidity standpoint, in his view: repo credit distributed by the Fed against Treasuries still increases spendable dollars in the system to finance government borrowing. “This will buy some time, but eventually the exponential expansion of treasury debt issuance will force the repeated use of the SRF,” he writes. “Stealth QE will begin shortly. I don’t know when it will begin. But… the SRF balance must grow as the lender of last resort. As SRF balances grow, the amount of fiat dollars in the world expands as well. This phenomenon will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.” He also sketches a near-term tactical backdrop that helps explain recent market tone across crypto. While auctions are pulling cash into the Treasury General Account, he notes, fiscal spending has been temporarily impeded by the government shutdown, producing a net drain in private-sector liquidity. Related Reading: Crypto Bull Case Vs. Bear Case: These Forces Divide The Market “The Treasury General Account is above the $850 billion target by ~$150bn,” he writes, arguing that this “extra liquidity won’t get released into the markets until the government reopens,” contributing to “current softness in the crypto markets.” In other words, the same fiscal engine that ultimately forces the Fed’s hand via the SRF can, in the very short run, sap liquidity when issuance front-runs outlays. Hayes’ rhetoric remains intentionally sharp. He describes Treasuries as “dog shit” at prevailing real yields, calls the buy-side “debt shit eaters,” and opens with a hymn to Bitcoin’s monetary properties—“Praise be to Lord Satoshi that time and compounding interest exist regardless of who you are.” The provocation serves the point: if the marginal financing of US deficits increasingly relies on opaque backstops rather than transparent reserve creation, then crypto’s native, non-sovereign liquidity cycles will key off the same hidden plumbing. He distills the investment upshot in a single sentence: “Treasury Debt Amount Issued = Increase in Supply of Dollars.” The essay is not a calendar call. Hayes refuses to timestamp the inflection—“I don’t know when it will begin”—and he warns that “between now and when stealth QE begins, one has to husband capital. Expect a choppy market,” especially with shutdown dynamics distorting flows. But he is unequivocal on direction once SRF usage becomes persistent: “Stealth QE will begin shortly… [and] will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.” For crypto investors conditioned to watch CPI prints and FOMC dots, the message is to track money-market microstructure instead. In Hayes’ framework, when SRF balances stop being a rounding error and start trending, that is the tell that dollar liquidity has quietly flipped—and that crypto isn’t topping yet. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.41 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
While the move helps avoid potential liquidity crises that could damage financial markets, it falls short of being as stimulative to risk assets as the Fed's other moves, such as QE.
Grayscale Investments kicked off trading of a new Solana-focused ETF on Wednesday, adding a staking feature that passes network rewards to investors. Related Reading: Avalanche Expands In Asia — Japan’s Biggest Card Processor Joins The Network The fund, now listed on NYSE Arca as the Grayscale Solana Trust ETF (GSOL), was converted from a closed-end vehicle that first launched in 2021. From Closed-End Trust To ETF According to Grayscale, the move makes the firm one of the largest Solana exchange-traded product managers in the US by assets under management. The converted ETF lets ordinary brokerage accounts hold SOL exposure while receiving staking rewards tied to the network. Inkoo Kang, Grayscale’s Senior Vice President of ETFs, said the launch shows the firm’s belief that digital assets should sit alongside stocks and bonds in modern portfolios. Introducing Grayscale Solana Trust ETF (Ticker: $GSOL), offering investors exposure to @Solana $SOL, one of the fastest-growing digital assets. $GSOL features: ⚡ Convenient Solana exposure paired with staking benefits. ???? Exposure to a high-speed, low-cost blockchain.… pic.twitter.com/TgVNlhqBPO — Grayscale (@Grayscale) October 29, 2025 Competition Increased This Week Based on reports, Grayscale is not alone. Bitwise rolled out its own Solana ETF on the New York Stock Exchange one day earlier. Canary also listed Litecoin and HBAR ETFs on Nasdaq on Tuesday. Those moves came amid strong interest from asset managers to offer regulated crypto funds that give investors straightforward access to tokens without direct custody. ????JUST IN: $GSOL, the first Grayscale Solana Trust ETF with staking, goes live on @NYSE Arca, offering U.S. investors spot @Solana exposure and staking rewards under newly approved SEC listing standards. pic.twitter.com/eTzVP9Kb1X — SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) October 29, 2025 Regulatory Timing And Guidance These ETF launches happened while the US government was partially shut down and some SEC staff were furloughed. Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, said staking-enabled funds offer more than simple price exposure; participants can help secure the network, support developer work, and earn rewards. The Securities and Exchange Commission issued guidance permitting firms to file S-1 registration statements without a delaying amendment, which lets certain funds take effect automatically within 20 days of filing. The SEC had also approved updated listing standards for commodity-based trust shares shortly before the staffing disruption, a step that helped speed up approvals for dozens of pending crypto ETF applications. What This Means For Solana Holders Solana has consistently cemented its status among the powerhouse tokens in terms of market valuation, taking the sixth spot, according to CoinMarketCap. Related Reading: Dogecoin Ignites — 60% Volume Boom Teases Potential Rally Based on reports, the new listings did not include full details on fee levels, which validators will be used for staking, or how staking rewards will be split after expenses. Those operational questions matter to investors weighing net returns and counterparty risk. Trading on NYSE Arca does mean easier access through brokerages, but the finer points of how staking is run will shape how attractive GSOL becomes versus other Solana products. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
The global financial markets are bracing for a historic shift as the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin a new cycle of rate cuts, marking the start of what analysts call a “new era of monetary easing.” The move could ignite a powerful rally across risk assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum likely to …
After weeks of sideways trading, veteran trader VirtualBacon believes the crypto market is standing on the edge of something massive, a full-blown liquidity-driven rally. He believes the Federal Reserve’s quiet shift toward ending quantitative tightening (QT) marks the beginning of the next major “crypto melt-up”, sending Bitcoin and altcoins soaring once again. Fed’s Liquidity Shift …
The market is confident that the Fed will cut rates. But crypto traders are still waiting for confirmation.
President Donald Trump’s administration has narrowed its search for the next Federal Reserve Chair to five contenders, hinting at a major shift in the central bank’s direction in 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the shortlist will be presented to Trump “right after Thanksgiving,” with a final decision expected before the end of the …
The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs. Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market. US Stock Market’s Record-Breaking Momentum The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance. Related Reading: Analyst Says Understanding This Bitcoin Structure Is Like Having A Superpower The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact. However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength. Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000. When Bitcoin Finally Catches Up The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sees Sharp Decline With Market Crash – Here Are The Numbers Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price dropped again, falling below $108,000 as worries grow over rising tensions between the United States and China. The trade dispute between the two biggest economies has made investors nervous, pushing many to sell risky assets like crypto. Bitcoin Stuck in a Volatile Zone Bitcoin is now trading around $107,800, after briefly jumping to …
A rare confluence of macro catalysts will put risk assets—and by extension crypto—on edge this Friday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will publish the delayed September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 24, even as most federal data remain frozen by the ongoing government shutdown. In a short notice, the agency underscored the exceptionality of the move and added that “no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services.” Crypto Bulls On Alert The timing is unusual on two counts. First, CPI is rarely a Friday print; The Kobeissi Letter noted via X that it would be the first Friday CPI since January 2018. Second, it lands five days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 28–29, compressing the policy-reaction window for the only marquee data. As Adam Kobeissi framed it: “Something unusual is happening this week: On Friday, we are receiving CPI inflation data DURING the US government shutdown… Not only is it 5 days before the October 29th Fed meeting, but it is the first time CPI data will be reported on a Friday since January 2018.” Related Reading: Has The Crypto Treasury Bubble Burst? Tom Lee Thinks So Against that backdrop, crypto strategist Nik Patel captured prevailing risk-tone logic in a morning note via X: with scarce data in a “speech-heavy” week, any print that leans above survey “will be of significance.” He argued: “Would even expect a moderately above consensus inflation print to be welcomed by the markets — I would like to see inflation breakevens bottom out here and turn higher again (and make no mistake the Fed will still be cutting into this and this combination would be bullish risk). Growth, Inflation continues to be what I expect of the next 6 months but right now we’re chewing through a period of fears around both.” The Macro Backdrop To understand why this particular CPI matters for crypto assets, consider the near-term inflation trend and the state of the Fed debate. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August after 0.2% in July; the year-over-year rate accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7%. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY. Back-to-back prints earlier in the summer had suggested headline inflation was stabilizing in the high-2s: June CPI ran at 2.7% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly gain, and July matched 2.7% YoY while core posted its largest monthly increase since January. The August re-acceleration nudged debate away from a straight-line disinflation narrative and toward a more nuanced view—one sensitive to tariffs. Related Reading: Crypto Bulls Smell Blood: SOFR–RRP Spread Hints QT Pivot By October The Fed preview is therefore unusually binary—even if the meeting dates themselves are conventional. The central bank’s October 28–29 gathering is live, with rates markets leaning toward another quarter-point cut, followed by a more contested December. But the data blackout has amplified CPI’s leverage over the policy narrative, which is why a single release can swing the perceived odds of both the October move’s size and the guidance for year-end. All of this collides with crypto’s macro-beta reality. When liquidity expectations improve—via easier financial conditions and falling real yields—large-cap tokens typically outperform; when policy turns cautious, crypto’s duration-like characteristics can cut the other way. That’s why the market is latched onto the shutdown-Friday CPI quirk. The bottom line for crypto participants is straightforward. Friday’s CPI is not just “another inflation print.” It is a rare Friday release, arriving in a data drought five days before an FOMC decision, with PMIs and sentiment hitting hours later. If it cools meaningfully, easing expectations could firm into month-end. If it surprises hot and re-validates August’s firmness, markets may still attempt to spin it as growth-positive—as Nik Patel suggested—so long as the Fed signals it will keep cutting. Either way, by compressing signal and policy into a single news cycle, the shutdown has turned one morning into the fulcrum for October’s crypto narrative. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.71 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
QCP Capital’s latest note says global markets are pivoting from rate sensitivity to liquidity dependence.
The Fed's quantitative tightening, which began in 2022, has reduced the balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion.
Today’s all eyes are on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will speak today at 8:30 a.m. EST. Meanwhile crypto traders are watching closely for hints about future rate cuts. As recent Fed minutes show that 50% of the policymakers expect two more cuts by the end of 2025, a sign of a possible policy …
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Meeting Today as the central bank prepares to release its latest meeting minutes, and crypto markets are closely watching for signals on future policy moves. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also speak today at 8:30 a.m. EST, giving further guidance on the pace of potential rate cuts expected …
Bitcoin’s momentum cooled today as traders turned cautious ahead of key macroeconomic events, including the release of the FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech. The top cryptocurrency, which recently touched a fresh all-time high of $126,200, has slipped over 2% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading near $122,495. This …
What to Expect from Jerome Powell’s Speech Today All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today, as he is set to speak at 12:35 PM ET at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. Investors and crypto traders are watching closely to see whether Powell signals more interest rate cuts or maintains a …
Crypto pundit and legal expert Bill Morgan has humorously predicted that the XRP price will drop below $3. He ironically alluded to a series of bullish developments as what would contribute to the price crash. XRP Price To Crash Below $3 Amid Bullish Developments In an X post, Morgan predicted that the XRP price would drop $3 as he joked about how the altcoin keeps dropping despite bullish developments. This came as he highlighted Ripple’s partnership with DBS and Franklin Templeton to provide a trading and lending solution, powered by tokenized money market funds on the XRP Ledger and in stablecoins such as RLUSD. Related Reading: 8-Year Accumulation Phase Could Catapult XRP Price To $6 Prior to his prediction, the legal expert had also highlighted how the XRP price was down despite “all the good news,” which included the launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF. The ETF became the first U.S. fund to offer investors spot exposure to XRP. Morgan also alluded to the CME Group’s announcement of plans to launch options on XRP futures on October 13. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time this year, a development that was expected to be bullish for the XRP price. However, despite these developments, the crypto pundit noted that the XRP price was still down. He stated that it felt like “Déjà vu,” pointing to the period between 2018 and October 2024. Meanwhile, in another X post, the crypto pundit joked that he was afraid to post more good news over fear that the XRP price may keep declining. This came in reference to Coinbase’s announcement that in just one month, the Solana and XRP Perpetual-Style Futures have scaled exponentially. The crypto exchange announced that these futures have generated over $1.9 billion in notional volume, with more than 1.6 million contracts having been traded. “No Mystery” In Why XRP Is Down Bill Morgan eventually admitted that there is no mystery in why the XRP price is actually, noting that it was because of the Bitcoin price rather than all the “good news” he had earlier alluded to. He further remarked that this overwhelming reality and the most significant factor in the XRP price movement, which is heavily correlated with the BTC price dynamics. The legal expert added that this is consistent with Ripple’s expert evidence in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Major XRP Warning: Last Chance To Get In As Accumulation Balloons Crypto analyst CasiTrades also noted that the XRP price is taking a hit alongside Bitcoin and that because the altcoin failed to make a new local high, the door is open for a deeper correction. She stated that the altcoin could drop to between $2.92 and $2.94 as this aligns with both the .618 retracement and the measured C-wave extension. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $3, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com