Next week is important for the crypto market because a few major events are happening. These include the release of the CPI and PPI data, speeches from important Federal Reserve officials, and testimony from Jerome Powell, which could all influence the direction of the crypto market in the coming week. Jobs Report and Tariff Concerns …
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics released the January 2025 employment data earlier today, briefly pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 before it lost all its gains and tumbled back to the $98,000 price level. Bitcoin Rises And Falls Amid Mixed Employment Data Bitcoin spiked from approximately $97,200 to a high of $100,110 after the US reported lower-than-expected job growth for January. According to the data, the US added 143,000 jobs last month, falling short of the projected 170,000. For comparison, December 2024 saw a job increase of 256,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Hour RSI Hits Oversold Zone – Is A BTC Rebound Near? However, Bitcoin’s rally was short-lived, as it quickly erased nearly all its gains, sliding back to $97,957. The following chart illustrates the brief BTC price surge before it retraced to previous levels. In addition to the lower-than-expected job growth, the unemployment rate declined from 4.1% to 4%, highlighting the resilience of the US labor market despite elevated interest rates throughout most of 2024. Following this strong labor market data, the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns only an 8.5% probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates at its next meeting on March 19. Notably, this probability stood at 15% before the employment report was released. A lower likelihood of rate cuts suggests that interest rates will remain higher for longer, dampening Bitcoin bulls’ hopes for multiple reductions in 2025, that could inject fresh liquidity into the market and potentially benefit risk-on assets like BTC. It’s worth noting that from September to December 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, given the continued strength of the labor market and low unemployment, the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance, choosing to wait for potential economic warning signs before implementing further cuts. Global capital markets commentator, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the current US unemployment rate is the lowest since May 2024. They added that the “Fed pause is here to stay.” BTC Steady Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range of $92,000 to $106,000, keeping both bulls and bears uncertain about its next move. Despite this, the flagship cryptocurrency has shown remarkable resilience in the face of several macroeconomic challenges that, under normal circumstances, might have triggered a significant sell-off in the crypto market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid NASDAQ Decline, Analyst Calls It ‘Extremely Bullish’ For instance, BTC remained unfazed by the stock market downturn triggered by the release of China’s AI-powered language model, DeepSeek. Similarly, the digital asset held strong despite renewed trade tensions between the US and China, following President Donald Trump’s imposition of 10% tariffs on the Asian economic powerhouse, which led to retaliatory measures. However, concerns persist regarding the recent slump in Bitcoin network activity, with some analysts questioning whether BTC is currently overvalued. At press time, BTC trades at $98,015, up 1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from TradingView.com
According to a recent analysis by Benjamin Cowen, CEO and Founder of ITC Crypto, the crypto market has entered “Step 2” of his guide for 2025. The analyst pinpointed Ethereum (ETH) in his price chart, emphasizing that the second-largest cryptocurrency is set to decline further, in line with his earlier predictions. Step 2: Crypto Market Sells Off As ETH Goes Home Ethereum is currently experiencing widespread market sell-offs as investors react to its bearish price action and tightening liquidity conditions. Failing to meet investors’ expectations, the price of Ethereum has struggled to maintain strong momentum in this bull market. Related Reading: Crypto Market Remains Greedy Despite Bitcoin Price Crash To $94,000, Is A Recovery Coming? Cowen’s chart analysis suggests that the current downtrend aligns with the broader market cycle, where Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 60%, leading to capital flows from altcoins like Ethereum. The analyst announced that the crypto market is currently in the second phase of his guide for 2025’s market trajectory. In a previous X post on January 29, Cowen outlined a structured six-step roadmap for his 2025 market cycle theory. The first step highlights an increase in Bitcoin’s dominance to over 60%. This occurs when investors leave altcoins and move into Bitcoin, seeking stability amidst the volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market. During this time, Ethereum and most altcoins underperform due to the lack of interest and demand from investors. Now, in Step 2 of Cowen’s 2025 guide, the crypto market has entered a correction phase, with Ethereum declining sharply. Cowen claims that ETH will eventually “go home,” meaning the cryptocurrency will undergo a severe decline to long-term key support levels. In this second phase, the broader market also experiences a sell-off as investors take profit amidst volatility and ongoing declines in cryptocurrencies. Despite rising to $3,000 earlier in this bull market, Ethereum has failed to maintain positive momentum, recording steep declines as its price struggles to find stable support. According to data from CoinMarketCap, ETH is currently trading at $2,594, reflecting a massive 16.4% price crash in the last 24 hours. Over the past weeks, Ethereum has performed poorly, experiencing a sharp decline to new lows while other cryptocurrencies have gained momentum. The altcoin’s price has plunged to new lows, dropping by more than 27.6% in just a month. This downturn has also significantly impacted its market capitalization, which has fallen to $312.6 billion. Cowen’s 2025 Market Guide: What’s Next? In Step 3 of his market cycle theory for 2025, Cowen predicts that the Federal Reserve (FED) will shift its policy and end quantitative tightening, which has been draining liquidity from the financial markets. This decision is critical, as easing monetary conditions would pave the way for the analyst’s fourth step — a bullish phase fueled by market rallies. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ After Crash Toward $3,000 In the fifth step, Cowen predicts that macroeconomic conditions will deteriorate later in the year. This could include factors like inflation, interest rate, geopolitical stability, and others. The final step in his 2025 market cycle guide forecasts a full-blown recession. Cowen projects that this recession would lead to a bear market, aligning with historical midterm election year cycles, where markets tend to face deeper corrections. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
The cryptocurrency market saw a big increase and a lot of buying activity after Donald Trump returned to the White House. With Trump signing several executive orders that support the cryptocurrency market, more people are interested in trading. The next week is important for the market because the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and …
After a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made a swift recovery, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20. However, according to a crypto analyst, further upside could be limited until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Bitcoin To Remain Range-Bound Until FOMC Meeting The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been on a bullish trajectory since November, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Over the past three months, BTC has surged from approximately $67,000 to $104,536 at the time of writing, posting gains of over 50%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast Of $150,000 ‘Too Low’ Amid Rising Adoption, Crypto Trader Says However, crypto analyst Krillin predicts that BTC may continue to “chop” in the $100,000 to $110,000 range until the FOMC meeting. The analyst suggests that unless the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary policy measures, BTC is unlikely to break out of this range before the end of the month. At present, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Krillin expects a market dump to follow the anticipated hawkish meeting, which may be partially offset by a dovish-sounding press conference hinting at future quantitative easing (QE). For the uninitiated, QE is a monetary policy where central banks inject money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and other financial assets to lower interest rates and stimulate economic activity. This increased money supply can weaken fiat currencies, potentially driving investors toward assets like BTC, boosting its price as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Krillin’s prediction aligns with a recent market observation which states that BTC profit-taking has declined by 93% from its December peak, and that the long-term holders are back in accumulation mode, preparing for the next leg up. However, how long the current consolidation phase may last is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes a sharp decline in capital inflows into the digital assets market, from $134 billion on December 10 to $43.37 billion. This low liquidity could result in sharp price swings, increasing the risk of liquidations for leverage traders. Will BTC Peak In Q2 2025? As BTC awaits the FOMC meeting to determine its next price trend, some analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency could hit its market cycle peak in Q2 2025 as more institutions embrace the asset under favourable regulations. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report For example, crypto analyst Dave The Wave recently predicted that BTC will likely peak in the summer of 2025. A report by Bitfinex supports this outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, albeit with minor corrections along the way. That said, Bitcoin must defend the $100,000 price level, as failure to do so could see the asset drop to as low as $97,500. At press time, BTC trades at $104,536, up 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
The chief research analyst at 10x Research, Markus Thielen, thinks Bitcoin has a bright future. If Thielen’s crystal ball is correct, the digital asset might potentially experience significant price swings on January 29, 2025, once it breaks out of its so-called “symmetrical triangle” formation. Related Reading: Solana Tops The Charts As Artificial Intelligence Go-To Blockchain Platform —Research However, the path to this breakout is fraught with variables that could sway Bitcoin’s trajectory in any direction. Breaking Down The Technicals Bitcoin has been trading in a symmetrical triangular pattern for quite some time. These patterns typically signify consolidation, implying that the market is gearing up for a major move. Thielen sees this as a possibility for a breakout, which might push Bitcoin over its resistance levels. However, he adds that there is no assurance. The breakout may happen either way. Inflation And Fed Decisions Affect Bitcoin A breakout may not be fully based on technical analysis. Thielen notes that inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions will have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s future price behavior. If inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the market’s risk appetite may decline, impeding Bitcoin’s growth. Alternatively, if economic conditions improve, Bitcoin may skyrocket. Timeline For Breakout Thielen speculates that Bitcoin will break out on January 29, 2025. If this schedule is accurate, we could witness a huge movement in the market. However, time, like all predictions, is subject to uncertainty. Thielen, meanwhile, alluded to a bullish break and the ensuing Bitcoin surge. Growing anticipation of increased Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers served as the foundation for the market expert’s claim. The market may take longer to break through or face unexpected volatility, which alters the present trend. Investors should be cautious because the breakout could happen sooner or later than planned based on market conditions. The Uncertainty Factor While many analysts have a bright outlook, Thielen warns on prudence. Bitcoin’s price is famously volatile, with the possibility of huge volatility remaining. Investors should be aware that Bitcoin can encounter obstacles that restrict its breakout potential even with the positive technical patterns. Navigating this unpredictable terrain will depend much on risk management. Related Reading: Analyst Declares XRP A Bullish Favorite – Rally Imminent? Bitcoin In The Green Today Bitcoin was trading at $99,197, up 2.3% and 4.1% in the daily and weekly timeframes when this report was made. Featured image from Techopedia, chart from TradingView
Institutions dumped huge amounts of Bitcoin in late December after its peak high, but they’re now back to buying with it below $100,000, says Blocktrends’ Cauê Oliveira.
In a striking revelation on the latest episode of the Coin Stories podcast, host Nathalie Brunell interviewed The Digital Chamber founder & CEO Perianne Boring, who disclosed an unvarnished and previously unknown response from members of the United States Federal Reserve. According to Boring, when she discussed the idea of a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve […]
Early this month, the US Federal Reserve reduced the federal fund interest rate by 25bps, bringing down borrowing costs to the range of 4.25% – 4.5%. Announcing the third rate cut of the year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the organisation would take a cautious approach when considering any future rate cuts. Now, experts …
In a rather unseemingly fashion, Bitcoin’s (BTC) journey to a new all-time high at $108,268 was followed by an estimated 17% decline pushing the asset’s price to a local bottom of $92,281. This heavy price decline has been attributed to the recent policy announcement by the US Federal Reserve which adopted another 25 basis point […]
In an interview with Yahoo Finance, US Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming outlined a proposal to grant the Federal Reserve the authority to hold Bitcoin as part of the United States’ official reserves. She argues that this approach could improve the country’s long-term financial stability, strengthen the global role of the US dollar, and provide […]
Today, December 19, 2024, the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing notable losses, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP seeing significant price declines over the past 24 hours. A potential reason for this drop is the recent Federal Reserve rate cut meeting. Reason Behind the Crypto Market Decline During the …
The price of bitcoin, already lower from yesterday, dipped below $104,000 in the minutes following the announcement.
The price of bitcoin, already lower from yesterday, dipped below $104,000 in the minutes following the announcement.
The US Federal Reserve is set to hold its final meeting for the year 2024 today. It is expected that the US Fed will make some important announcements after the meeting. There is a high chance of the announcement of a 25 basis points interest rate cut. Let’s examine the scenario. US Fed Expected to …
This is an extremely crucial week for the US market. The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25bps rate cut on December 18. The event is expected to impact the crypto market. The upcoming is the second rate cut in 2024. Here is what you should know. Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision: What …
CME FedWatch shows the market is expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, which would be the third cut this year.
Bitcoin fell to $85,000, as CPI data came in hotter month-over-month as odds of a Fed pause increase at next policy meeting in December.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later today could shake up markets as he will face questions about the central bank's outlook on monetary policy and inflation after Donald Trump's decisive win of the U.S. presidential election.
Elevated interest rates in the U.S. have dented ether’s appeal as the internet equivalent of a bond, offering a fixed-income-like return on staking.
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, the crypto market’s focus is on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming announcements. Scheduled for 2:00 PM ET are both the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the FOMC Statement, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following at 2:30 PM ET. These events are poised to have significant implications for cryptocurrencies and broader financial markets. What The Crypto Market Can Expect Market participants overwhelmingly anticipate a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 97.5% expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. This expectation aligns with recent economic indicators and reflects a consensus that the Fed will continue its cautious monetary easing. “The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the November 7 meeting. This aligns with market expectations and follows a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report,” Althea Spinozzi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Saxo Bank, notes. Related Reading: ‘Crypto Has Already Won’, Regardless Of Trump Or Harris Win: Bitwise CIO The Fed is likely to maintain a measured approach, emphasizing gradual rate cuts over abrupt policy shifts. Chair Powell is expected to underscore a data-dependent and restrained policy stance, focusing on the nuanced dynamics of the current economic landscape. Spinozzi adds, “The Fed is likely to continue its measured approach, emphasizing gradual rate cuts rather than drastic policy shifts. Chair Jerome Powell is expected to highlight a data-dependent and restrained policy stance.” While headline inflation appears to be easing, core components suggest persistent pressures. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-over-year in September, the lowest since February 2021. However, critical sectors like shelter and services continue to see elevated prices. Shelter prices are up 4.9% year-over-year, and services excluding energy rose by 4.7%. “The core PCE inflation rate—a key Fed measure—has stabilized at an annualized 2.3% over both three- and six-month averages but continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target,” Spinozzi highlights. Persistent inflation in these sectors could exert upward pressure on overall inflation, complicating the Fed’s efforts to achieve its target. The labor market remains robust despite recent disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. The unemployment rate stands firm at 4.1%, and temporary layoffs have declined in October. Wage growth is showing signs of cooling; the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3 surprised to the downside at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, the softest since Q2 2021. Year-over-year, the ECI remains elevated at 3.9%, significantly above the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) average of 2.16%. Weekly jobless claims are also well below the post-GFC average, indicating sustained labor market strength. Related Reading: Top Crypto Analyst Unveils Best Altcoins For The 2025 Bull Run Overall, the US economy has exhibited unexpected robustness. Third-quarter GDP grew by 2.8% annualized, and personal consumption rose by 3.7%, the strongest quarter since early 2023. However, concerns about the sustainability of this growth persist. Real disposable income has softened, and household savings are declining, potentially limiting future consumer spending. Adding to the complexity is the US presidential election. The victory by Donald Trump could significantly influence fiscal policies, thereby impacting the Fed’s longer-term rate path. “The Federal Reserve will be mindful of how its actions and commentary could influence financial markets that may already be experiencing quite volatile conditions,” James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, remarks. For crypto traders, Jerome Powell’s commentary during the FOMC press conference on anticipated inflationary effects stemming from the Trump election is the key focus. Experts expect that the Trump presidency could lead to policies that underpin inflation, such as tax cuts and increased fiscal spending, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates elevated. Despite the political backdrop, the Fed is expected to proceed with the rate cut. ING analysts suggest, “Even after September’s 50bp rate cut, monetary policy is in restrictive territory, and the Fed has scope to keep cutting rates back to a more neutral level to give the economy a little more breathing space to continue growing strongly.” The current target range for the Fed funds rate is 4.75% to 5%, well above the estimated “neutral” level of 3% to 3.5%. The consensus is that the Fed has room to normalize its policy, especially with the labor market cooling. The crypto market will be closely monitoring not just the rate decision—which appears largely priced in—but also the Fed’s commentary on inflation, economic growth, and the potential impacts of the presidential election. Any indications from Chair Powell regarding future policy shifts could have significant implications for the Bitcoin and crypto markets. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,080. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
The Federal Reserve is about to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut, likely bringing rates down to the 4.5%-4.7% range. But since everyone’s already expecting this move, it might not make waves on its own. The real buzz will come after Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks about how he sees President-elect Trump’s economic plans playing out. …
A seasoned market expert has shed light on Bitcoin’s current bearish performance, noting that the small price correction that has led to a significant liquidation of BTC positions is “healthy and reasonable,” addressing worries about its future potential. Bitcoin’s Bearish Move Not A Thing To Worry About? Bitcoin’s recent upward rally witnessed earlier last week […]
The crypto market eagerly awaits the upcoming FOMC interest-rate decision by the US Federal Reserve this week. One of the highly anticipated events this week is expected to shape the sentiments in the digital assets space, potentially setting the path for Bitcoin and other altcoins.. Rate Cut Soon? The digital asset market has reacted positively …
Wider economic and stock market-related issues are impacting Bitcoin’s softening price, but futures market data shows traders still feel bullish.
As the crypto market maintains its bullish strength, many key metrics of Bitcoin have been demonstrating strong and optimistic trends in recent weeks, which could impact prices positively, suggesting a promising outlook for BTC in the upcoming days. A Strong Growth In Bitcoin Futures Premium Bitcoin‘s futures annualized premium, a crucial metric that often gives […]
Bitcoin fell short of its all-time high, but multiple Bitcoin price metrics show BTC price on target to hit new all-time highs
Bitcoin price rallies as traders react to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as the potential outcome of the upcoming US election.
Bitcoin’s upcoming price recovery will be driven by a handful of unique factors.
Amid the recent renewed upward price movement in Bitcoin, the demand for the largest cryptocurrency asset among short-term holders has witnessed a notable rise, suggesting strong optimism about BTC’s potential for growth in the near term. Short-Term Holders Demand For Bitcoin Rebounds Axel Adler Jr., a macro researcher and author at leading on-chain firm CryptoQuant, […]