The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, has often followed a pattern of alternating growth and decline cycles, reflecting investor sentiment and market fundamentals. Since the beginning of the current bull cycle in January 2023, Bitcoin has demonstrated substantial gains in both price and market duration. Increased capital inflows from new investors have supported this growth and existing participants are reinvesting their profits. However, recent indicators suggest that the market may now be entering the latter stages of this cycle, raising questions about what lies ahead for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Related Reading: MARA CEO Advocates “Invest And Forget” Approach To Bitcoin, Citing Strong Historical Performance Key Indicators Point to Cautious Optimism A significant metric supporting this observation is the percentage of Bitcoin traded within the past month based on realized market cap – UTXO, which currently sits at 36%, according to a recent analysis shared by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan. In the analysis, Dan reveals that while this figure remains lower than peak levels observed in previous bull cycles, its downward trajectory suggests that the market is “progressing toward its cycle peak.” Dan anticipates that this peak could occur sometime between Q1 and Q2 of 2025. However, rather than a single explosive surge, historical trends indicate that the ratio could experience sharp increases two to four more times before the cycle concludes. This pattern typically signals market overheating, followed by a subsequent correction or bear cycle. Dan further highlighted that while the market still holds potential for gains, a conservative approach to risk management is advisable. Historically, late-stage bull cycles have been marked by increased volatility, as profit-taking begins to influence market behavior. Dan wrote: Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised. For this reason, I am planning to gradually sell my holdings. Another critical observation from on-chain data is the relationship between short-term traders and long-term holders. Historically, a sharp increase in short-term trading activity often precedes a market correction. Traders who entered the market during recent price rallies may begin to sell off their holdings, leading to temporary downward pressure on prices. Conversely, long-term holders often remain resilient during these periods, providing a stabilizing force in the market. Bitcoin Sees Recovery As The New Year Begins After weeks of struggling and remaining below $100,000 in the last month of 2024, Bitcoin appears to have now resumed its bullish momentum as the first month of 2025 commences. Although, BTC entered the new year with a price below $95,000. However, a few days later, the asset continued its upward momentum, reclaiming the $100,000 price mark to currently trade at a price of $101,624. At the time of writing, BTC recorded a 3.9% increase in the past day bringing its price closer to its recently established all-time high above $108,000 last month. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
After weeks of trading below the critical $100,000 mark, Bitcoin has started 2025 with renewed bullish momentum. The cryptocurrency, which had been struggling since last month, has shown signs of recovery, climbing back above the psychological $100,000 threshold earlier today for the first time in recent weeks. Bitcoin entered the year trading between $93,000 to $95,000 but has now regained momentum as its current trading price sits at $102,368. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has surged by a 4.5% increase, bringing it closer to its all-time high of $108,000 achieved in late 2024. This upward movement has reignited optimism among both retail and institutional investors, with many closely watching key market indicators to understand whether Bitcoin can sustain this momentum or if another correction might be on the horizon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forms First Daily Death Cross On Dominance Chart In 4 Years, What To Expect Next What Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Indicates CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent recently shared an analysis of Bitcoin’s price dynamics, highlighting the role of the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders (STH) as a key breakeven point. The Realized Price represents the average purchase price of Bitcoin by short-term holders, segmented into two critical bands: 1-week to 1-month (1W-1M) and 1-month to 3-month (1M-3M). Historically, the 1M-3M band has consistently acted as a medium-term support zone, while the 1W-1M band reflects short-term market sentiment. When the gap between these two bands widens, Bitcoin often experiences consolidation or corrective phases until they converge again. Currently, Bitcoin is encountering resistance at the 1W-1M band. However, the 1M-3M band continues to provide strong support, indicating a potential accumulation opportunity for medium-term investors. Yonsei Dent emphasized that monitoring the interaction between these two bands is essential for identifying market trends. As they move closer together, Bitcoin may experience a period of relative stability before determining its next significant price direction. Further Upward Momentum Expected? Another CryptoQuant analyst, Joohyun Ryu, provided insights into Bitcoin’s recent correction phase, noting that while the market exhibited signs of cooling, key indicators suggest a potential rebound. Metrics such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) offer valuable context for assessing market sentiment. The MVRV ratio currently stands at 2.358, indicating that Bitcoin is trading at a moderate premium relative to its realized value. Similarly, the aSOPR metric, currently at 1.02, suggests that Bitcoin transactions are still yielding profits on average. Meanwhile, the NUPL value of 0.58 reflects a market sentiment that remains in a state of optimism despite recent price fluctuations. Ryu also highlighted the continued activity of short-term holders, noting their consistent market participation despite recent volatility. Related Reading: Analyst Identifies Bitcoin Key Support Levels Amid Rebound Challenge – Details This steady influx of new investors suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Historically, such behavior has preceded significant upward price movements, reinforcing the notion that the recent market cooling phase may set the stage for a potential breakout. Featured image Created With DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin market continues to draw attention as key on-chain indicators reveal insights into miner sentiment and Bitcoin’s quarterly performance trends. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analysts highlights how shifts in miner sentiment correlate with Bitcoin price movements, while year-end data paints a picture of Bitcoin’s overall market behavior in 2024. These insights are critical for investors looking to navigate Bitcoin’s market dynamics and anticipate potential trends in 2025. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Reach A New All-Time High? This Golden Cross Suggests So The Role of Miner Sentiment In Market Dynamics Miner sentiment is often viewed as a crucial metric in predicting Bitcoin price movements. Historically, negative miner sentiment—typically observed through indicators like hashrate, difficulty, block count, and block rewards—has often signaled market bottoms or the early stages of recovery trends. Additionally, the relationship between miner sentiment and Bitcoin price movements has remained consistent across various market cycles. A CryptoQuant analyst known as datascope pointed out that periods of sharply negative miner sentiment, highlighted by significant drops in hashrate and increased block production difficulty, often precede substantial price recoveries. This phenomenon was evident during Bitcoin’s market cycles in 2017, 2018, and 2020, where negative miner sentiment coincided with market bottoms and subsequent rallies. In the context of the current market phase, the analyst observed heightened miner sentiment volatility, suggesting increased uncertainty and potential market corrections. However, the data also indicates that significant declines in miner sentiment often create strategic buying opportunities. Furthermore, with Bitcoin mining profitability becoming more challenging due to increasing difficulty levels, miner behavior is expected to play an even more prominent role in determining market sentiment in the coming months Bitcoin Year-End Performance Overview In addition to miner sentiment, Bitcoin’s overall market performance in the final quarter of 2024 offers important insights. According to another CryptoQuant analyst known as Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s market capitalization increased by 55%, while its realized capitalization rose by 28.9% during Q4 of 2024. Although these figures represent substantial growth, they fall slightly below the 58% market cap growth seen in Q1 2024. However, the realized cap growth in Q4 outpaced that of Q1, indicating stronger capital inflows into Bitcoin during the final months of the year. When compared to previous Bitcoin cycles, the gains in Q4 2024 were more measured than the sharp increases seen during earlier bull runs. Historically, during peak bullish phases, Bitcoin often recorded market cap growth nearing 100% and realized cap gains of 50-70%. Related Reading: $33.14 Billion At Risk If The Bitcoin Price Hits $72,462, Here’s Why Regardless the analyst mentioned that Q4 2024 can be considered to be “Bitcoin’s best quarter of the year.” Looking ahead to 2025, Crazzyblockk appears to remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential. The analyst noted: While history does not always repeat itself, we can cautiously speculate that the bullish sentiment among Bitcoin holders leaves room for long-term growth in 2025. However, this does not rule out the possibility of short-term corrections along the way Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is currently experiencing significant shifts in supply dynamics, with notable activity between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). According to the latest analysis from CryptoQuant, historically, such transitions have often indicated local market tops or even cycle peaks, depending on the overall market environment and broader economic conditions. Presently, demand from short-term holders continues to play a critical role in supporting Bitcoin’s price stability amid ongoing market volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Remains Below $100,000: Is the Bull Market Over or Just Taking a Breather? Long-Term Holders Vs. Short-Term Buyers The analysis made by the CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost revealed that the short-term holders, particularly those who acquired Bitcoin in recent months, are actively influencing market sentiment. By analyzing the realized price data of various short-term acquisition periods, distinct support and resistance levels become apparent. These realized price levels include $41,000 for the general average realized price, $85,000 for short-term holders overall, $99,000 for holders within one week to one month, $81,000 for one to three months, and $60,000 for three to six months. These figures reflect key psychological and technical price points where market participants may make significant buy or sell decisions, according to Darkfost. The analyst revealed that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) currently remains neutral at 1 after declining from Bitcoin’s last rally, which pushed its price to an all-time high of $108,000. The STH SOPR serves as a key metric to evaluate short-term holders’ profit-taking behavior. A neutral SOPR indicates that recent selling activity from short-term holders has not been significantly profitable, reducing the incentive for widespread sell-offs at current price levels. However, this neutral stance suggests potential headwinds for an immediate bullish recovery. The decline in STH SOPR points to diminishing realized profits, which could slow down upward momentum in the short term. Despite these challenges, short-term holders’ demand has managed to absorb much of the selling pressure from long-term holders, preventing sharp price declines. Darkfost wrote: In conclusion, the selling pressure from LTHs has so far been fairly well absorbed by the buying pressure from STHs. However, we note that the STH SOPR is declining, which could hinder an immediate bullish recovery. In the short term, a period of consolidation or even a deeper correction might occur. Bitcoin Market Performance And Outlook Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading at a price of $97,357 after recording a slight increase of 1.1% in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Moves From 56 To 60-Day Cycle After Crash Below $100,000, What To Expect Next While this uptick has helped BTC regain positive momentum in recent weeks, it remains insufficient to propel the cryptocurrency back to the six-digit price mark or its all-time high above $108,000. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A crypto analyst says the rise in the Coinbase Premium Index is due to “increasing seller pressure” in the US market, reaching levels not seen since January 2024.
Amid Bitcoin continuous correction in recent weeks, there has been a significant drop in BTC’s trading volume on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange raising concerns about the implications for the market. A CryptoQuant analyst has highlighted in a report that both spot and futures trading volumes for the BTC/USDT pair have witnessed a sharp decline. This reduction in activity suggests weakened buying power and decreased liquidity, two critical elements in maintaining price stability in the cryptocurrency market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Now Worst Since Mid-October: Reversal Signal? Trading Activity on Binance Signals Caution for Bitcoin Traders The analyst known as Crazzyblockk disclosed that the drop in trading volume is particularly important as centralized exchanges like Binance play a pivotal role in balancing supply and demand dynamics. A decline in trading activity typically indicates reduced demand, leaving the market more vulnerable to price swings. With fewer active buyers, any significant sell-off could trigger rapid price declines, amplifying volatility across the broader Bitcoin market. Crazzyblockk urges caution, advising traders to avoid impulsive decisions. The analyst wrote: Given the current market conditions, it is advisable to exercise extra caution and avoid making impulsive decisions. Even small shifts in buying or selling pressure could lead to significant volatility in the Bitcoin market. Adding to this concern is the observation that Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has tilted toward sellers. This metric, which measures whether aggressive buyers (takers) are purchasing or selling more actively, suggests that sellers currently dominate market activity. Taker Buy-Sell Ratio Hints at Market Sentiment Shift The taker buy-sell ratio is an essential indicator for understanding market sentiment, especially on Binance, which handles a significant portion of global Bitcoin trading. Crazzyblockk has reported a noticeable shift in this ratio over recent weeks, with sellers becoming increasingly dominant. When sellers aggressively fill more orders than buyers, it signals bearish sentiment and raises the likelihood of continued downward price movement. This shift follows weeks of weak buyer activity, suggesting that bullish momentum has stalled. However, it remains unclear whether this pattern will persist or reverse in the coming days. Crazzyblockk noted: If this trend persists and the inclination remains toward sell contracts, a deeper market correction could be anticipated. However, a resurgence in buyer activity might stabilize prices and restore confidence among market participants. Despite these concerns, it is worth noting that the current situation can be seen as a potential buying opportunity, especially for long-term investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Key Moment: Will $93,257 Support Hold Or Break Below? Historical patterns suggest that periods of low trading volume and bearish sentiment often precede major market rebounds. However, it is still advised to remain cautious and avoid speculative trading strategies in the current market environment. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin continues to slowly decline in price, the asset appears to be moving closer to a key psychological level. With uncertainty surrounding the continuation of Bitcoin’s current trend, speculation remains divided on whether the crypto asset is preparing for another upward breakout or entering a phase of correction. Recent on-chain data suggests that specific metrics, such as the realized price for short-term holders, are providing essential insights into the market’s behavior and potential future direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Key SOPR Metric Holds Steady: Are Long-Term Holders Eyeing Higher Prices? Key Support Level Identified at $81,000 In an analysis recently uploaded on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, an analyst known as Shayan BTC revealed that the realized price metric, particularly for the 1-3 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age band, serves as a critical indicator for assessing investor sentiment among newer market participants. This metric represents the average purchase price of Bitcoin for those who acquired the asset within the last one to three months. A sustained price above this level typically signals bullish momentum, suggesting that recent buyers are confident in holding their positions despite prevailing market volatility. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s price drops below this level, it may indicate potential selling pressure as these short-term holders attempt to limit their losses. According to Shayan, the realized price for Bitcoin’s 1-3 month holder cohort currently stands at $81,000. This level is seen as a vital support zone, acting as a “psychological and technical defense” line for both short-term and long-term investors. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price remains above this threshold, it indicates a resilient market sentiment where recent buyers demonstrate confidence in the asset’s future price potential. On the flip side, a price drop below the $81,000 mark could lead to increased selling activity, primarily driven by short-term holders looking to exit their positions to minimize potential losses. Such a scenario would likely add downward pressure to the market, potentially triggering broader sell-offs. Bitcoin Market Performance Bitcoin has so far given investors a boring holiday season with its lackluster performance. Particularly ever since the past weeks towards the middle of December, Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 price mark and has remained below it with little to no upward movement. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has now dropped by 10.9%.2% as it remains below the $100,000 price mark. However, its past day performance has been quite interesting. Over this period, BTC has seen a sudden increase of 4% to a current trading price of $95,519, at the time of writing. Interestingly, despite this sudden surge, this price mark puts Bitcoin at a roughly 11.9% decrease away from its all-time high of $108,135 registered in the middle of December. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Amid the broader decline in the global crypto market, Ethereum emerged as one of the major cryptocurrencies that has been impacted significantly. Despite already being underperformed in the recent bull run, Ethereum has now experienced a notable correction, dropping to as low as below the $3,500 price level in recent weeks. While this price performance from ETH might have led investors to lose interest in Ethereum for now, recent data from the CryptoQuant platform suggests a possible turnaround, with key indicators pointing towards renewed market confidence. Related Reading: Is Ethereum Ready To Break Out? Key Indicators Suggest Strong Market Confidence Funding Rates Indicate Renewed Confidence Among Traders A CryptoQuant analyst, ShayanBTC, highlighted Ethereum’s futures market developments in a recent analysis titled “Ethereum Futures Market Signals Potential Rebound After $3K Correction.” The analysis from Shayan reveals that the futures funding rates, which act as a sentiment gauge for traders, have shown signs of stabilization after the price drop, hinting at a potential recovery. According to the analyst, Ethereum funding rates have shown an increase after the recent sharp correction, indicating a higher appetite among traders for long positions. Notably, funding rates are a mechanism in perpetual futures contracts where traders holding long positions pay short sellers, or vice versa, depending on market sentiment. When funding rates rise, it typically suggests that traders are leaning towards a bullish outlook. Shayan disclosed that the spike in funding rates implies increased demand for Ethereum at its current price level, signaling that traders expect a bounce-back from the $3,000 region. The analyst further explained that such behavior often precedes significant upward price movements, particularly when combined with a period of market consolidation. In his words: The recent spike in funding rates suggests an influx of buyers, which, if sustained, could drive a substantial bullish rebound. This renewed buying pressure has the potential to push Ethereum toward the crucial $4K resistance in the short to mid-term. Ethereum Market Performance After weeks of consistent decline, Ethereum currently trades at a price of $3,310, at the time of writing down by 1.5% in the past day. This market price marks a 32.2% decrease away from its all-time high (ATH) of $4,878, recorded in November 2021. Interestingly despite the drop in ETH’s price, the asset has still managed to see a slight increase in trading volume in the past day. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Guns For A Mid-High Timeframe Reversal Against Bitcoin In Bullish Q1 2025 Particularly, as of this time yesterday, ETH’s daily trading volume stood at a valuation below $15 billion, however, at the time of writing, the asset’s daily trading volume valuation sits at $20.6 billion. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Following the US elections in November, the crypto community has remained elated as pro-Bitcoin (BTC) and pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump emerged as the US President-elect. During the course of an extensive campaign, Trump voiced clear support for the crypto industry with promises of introducing favorable policies including a national bitcoin reserve if elected. With the Republican’s […]
The Toncoin price recovery has been one of the few bright spots in the cryptocurrency market over the past week. The climate of the broad market has been sluggish in the festive period, with the two largest assets Bitcoin and Ethereum struggling to make a mark. With the Toncoin price now approaching the $6 mark, it appears that the altcoin is now fully in its recovery phase. According to a pseudonymous analyst, a recent on-chain phenomenon suggests that the price rally for TON is only just beginning. What Happened Last Time TON Staking TVL Ratio Was At A Low Level? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Joaowedson discussed the dynamics between the staking TVL ratio and Toncoin price. According to the analyst, there is a correlation between the amount locked on TON and price movements. Related Reading: Historical Data Shows What To Expect From Ethereum Price In Q1 2025 – It’s Very Bullish The Quicktake analyst highlighted a trend whereby investors withdraw their assets in order to explore trading opportunities whenever there is a price increase. This phenomenon has also been observed in the TON ecosystem, with the TVL metric dropping in recent weeks. Joaowedson noted that the staking TVL ratio has reached new lows, coinciding with what appears to be a bottom for the price of Toncoin. Ultimately, this suggests that the odds of an increase in the Toncoin price are higher. While the idea of reduced interest in staking leading to price growth seems counterintuitive, it can be justified by the increase in liquidity available for trading. The Quicktake analyst explained: When investors withdraw funds from staking, they often transfer them to exchanges for quick trades. This movement increases demand for the token, driving prices higher. From a historical perspective, a similar situation occurred in March 2024 when the staking TVL ratio shrunk significantly as the TON price soared to new highs. “Interestingly, as interest in staking diminished, funds started migrating to centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) like Ston.FI and Dedust, boosting the TVL in those categories,” Joaowedson added. With investors more willing to make their assets available for trading, there is a higher likelihood of price increases due to growing demand. If this holds true, the Toncoin price could return to around its recent highs. Toncoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the Toncoin price stands at around $5.78, reflecting a 0.5% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the value of TON is up by more than 6% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Enters Correction Phase On Its Path To Explode Above $110,000 Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The TRON blockchain has been making significant strides in the cryptocurrency market, recording a notable increase in network fees and transaction activity. Particularly, over the past year, the TRON network has consistently demonstrated growth across multiple key metrics, reflecting increased adoption and participation from larger players in the digital asset market. Related Reading: Inside Trump’s […]
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Bitcoin may be due for a strong price rebound in the coming days with immediate spot buyer demand rising on crypto exchange Binance.
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Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen under 570,000 BTC, the lowest level since January. Will history repeat itself?
Toncoin (TON) appears to have now entered a notable phase in its market cycle, presenting potential opportunities for investors. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson highlights that TON has moved into a favorable risk zone for accumulation, as indicated by the Normalized Risk Metric (NMR). This metric evaluates an asset’s price risk relative to historical data, providing a clearer picture of whether the current price levels are suitable for investment or if caution is warranted. Related Reading: Toncoin Consolidates: Could A Breakout Push TON Higher? Toncoin Current Market Outlook The NMR uses moving averages such as the 50-day and 374-day simple moving averages (SMA) along with logarithmic differences in price data to determine risk exposure. A normalized score ranging between 0 and 1 indicates the level of risk, with values closer to zero suggesting a lower chance of price decline. According to Wedson, TON’s current placement in the green zone signals reduced risk, making it an appealing opportunity for investors seeking long-term exposure to the asset. The analysis further suggests that while the medium and long-term risk profiles appear favorable, there remains a possibility for TON’s price to revisit historically significant support zones, often referred to as the “blue zone” on price heatmaps. Historically, these levels have served as price floors and accumulation points for investors expecting future price appreciation. Open Interest Decline and Market Volatility Trends Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, has added further context to Toncoin’s current market stance. According to his observations, TON’s Open Interest (OI) in the futures market has decreased to $141 million, marking the lowest level observed in the past nine months. Open Interest refers to the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is a key indicator of market sentiment and participation. A decline in Open Interest generally signals reduced market activity and lower volatility. While this trend is specific to TON, it reflects a broader pattern across the cryptocurrency market as the year comes to a close. Historically, periods of low Open Interest are often followed by significant price movements, either upward or downward, once liquidity returns to the market. Related Reading: Toncoin’s 90-Day Returns Turn Positive: Is A Massive Rally On The Horizon? Lower Open Interest combined with Toncoin’s favorable risk metrics may suggest a period of price stability and reduced volatility. Risk-Adjusted Returns and Drawdowns: A Look at Unrealized Profits in TON “The Open Interest and Funding Rates chart complements this narrative by highlighting steady open interest levels, which demonstrate sustained participation in the TON ecosystem.” – By @ShivenMoodley More… pic.twitter.com/DIpNabROij — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
In the latest insight report by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Binance presently holds the best leverage ratio as the crypto bull run prepares to take off. Despite a major general price crash in the past week, investors and market analysts remain expectant of massive gains by several digital assets over the next year in line […]
Amid a general crypto market price fall in the past week, Ethereum (ETH) recorded a price correction of over 19.5% finding support at a local bottom of $3,100. Since then, the prominent altcoin has only shown slight resilience rising by over 5% in the past two days. However, recent data on wallet activity provides much cause to be bullish on Ethereum’s long-term future. Related Reading: Ethereum Rejected At $4,000 Resistance Again: What Lies Ahead For ETH? Ethereum HODL Addresses Increase Supply Dominance To 16% In a recent QuickTake post, CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D shared some positive insights on the Ethereum market. The crypto market expert reports that the balance of Ethereum Accumulation Addresses has surged by a remarkable 60% from August to December. During this time, these HODL wallets have boosted their portion of ETH supply from 10% to 16% i.e. 19.4 million ETH of 120 million ETH. To explain, the Accumulation Addresses are wallets that hold Ethereum but rarely move or sell their holdings. They are considered a measure of long-term investment and confidence. According to MAC_D, the rapid increase in these Ethereum HODL wallets’ holdings is a new development absent from previous bull cycles. The analyst attributed this massive accumulation rate to investors’ bullish expectations of the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US. These expectations include more favorable regulations on the DeFi industry which represents a major sector of the Ethereum ecosystem. Therefore, regardless of Ethereum’s current price movement, these long-holding wallets are likely to keep increasing their holdings in anticipation of future price growth. In addition, MAC_D emphasizes the importance of these Accumulation Addresses in that the price of Ethereum has never slipped below their realized price. Therefore, a continuous purchase by these wallets provides a high potential for a long-term price gain. Related Reading: Ethereum Investment: Trump Crypto Project Grabs 722 ETH At $2.5 Million What’s Next For ETH? In regards to Ethereum’s immediate movement, MAC_D warns that macroeconomic factors are likely to exert a stronger influence on ETH’s price in the short-term as illustrated by the recent price crash induced by potential reduced interest rate cuts in 2025. At the time of writing, the altcoin trades at $3,352 following a 3.07% decline in the past 24 hours. In tandem, ETH’s daily trading volume is down by 53.25% and valued at $31.15 billion. Following recent price falls, Ethereum also presents a negative performance on larger charts with losses of 14.74% and 1.05% in the past seven and thirty days, respectively. On a positive note, the asset’s price remains far above its initial price point ($2,397) at the start of the post-US elections price rally, indicating that long-term sentiment remains positive. With a market cap of $401 billion, Ethereum continues to rank as the second-largest cryptocurrency and largest altcoin in the digital asset market. Featured image from INX, chart from Tradingview
The United States election was one of the most defining events in the crypto space in 2024. Specifically, the reelection of Donald Trump revived Bitcoin and the entire crypto market after an uninspiring second and third quarter. One of the promises made by President-elect Trump in the run-up to the polls was the institution of […]
As Bitcoin currently faces a downturn and now seeing a recovery suggesting a preparation for its next bull run, market participants appears to be analyzing trends in exchange leverage and liquidity. Particularly, CryptoQuant has pointed out that leverage ratios on centralized exchanges have become a focal point, offering insights into the potential risks and opportunities shaping the crypto market. The platform’s recent data highlights the importance of assessing these ratios to gauge the financial stability of exchanges and the impact on trading dynamics. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Reclaims $100,000, Warning Signs Emerge from Long-Term Investors Leverage Trends And Exchange Stability A detailed analysis revealed that Binance maintains strong reserves relative to its open interest, signaling a strong ability to manage market volatility. In contrast, smaller exchanges like Gate.io and Bybit exhibit higher leverage ratios, raising questions about their capacity to withstand liquidity crunches. According to CryptoQuant, monitoring these metrics has become even more “critical” in light of past events, such as the collapse of FTX in November 2024, which was triggered by insufficient reserves against high open interest. CryptoQuant’s latest findings further highlight the varying leverage strategies employed by major cryptocurrency exchanges. Binance emerged as a leader in maintaining a stable leverage ratio while expanding its Bitcoin open interest from $4.45 billion in December 2023 to $11.64 billion in December 2024. Despite this growth, Binance’s Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT reserves have consistently exceeded its open interest, ensuring liquidity and stability even during volatile market conditions. The exchange’s leverage ratio, which rose modestly from 12.8 to 13.5 over the past year, remains the lowest among its peers. Conversely, exchanges like Gate.io, Bybit, and Deribit exhibit significantly higher leverage ratios of 106, 86, and 32, respectively. CryptoQuant wrote: These figures show their Bitcoin open interest exceeds or approaches their reserves, with similar patterns observed for Ethereum. Coinbase Premium: A Key Indicator For Bitcoin Traders Beyond leverage ratios, another crucial metric shaping Bitcoin market sentiment is the Coinbase Premium. This indicator, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges, is a barometer for institutional demand and market trends. A CryptoQuant analyst named BQYoutube suggested that traders adopt a cautious approach based on Coinbase Premium signals: When the premium is negative, it may be wise to stay on the sidelines. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Loses Momentum: Could A Drop To $75,000 Signal The Final Correction? However, a positive premium often signals the return of strong demand, offering a strategic entry point for traders looking to ride major market trends. According to the latest data, this metric currently sits on the negative side, suggesting to stay on the sidelines. BQYoutube added: You might miss few small trends with this approach but at least you can ride all the big trends and avoid losses in dips or downtrends. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingVie
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has recently experienced a significant and sudden price correction, sparking debate among investors. Concerns have surfaced about whether this downturn signals the conclusion of the current bull cycle or merely represents a temporary setback. While short-term holders face losses, long-term metrics provide a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s trajectory, as analyzed by CryptoQuant’s Avocado Onchain in a recent report. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Reclaims $100,000, Warning Signs Emerge from Long-Term Investors Opportunity Or End of The Bull Cycle? According to Avocado Onchain, the realized price for investors who entered the market during Bitcoin’s recent peak at $98,000 places them in a loss-making position. However, for those who invested between one to three months ago, the realized price is significantly lower at $71,000, offering a cushion against the current correction. Avocado pointed out that historical patterns from Bitcoin’s 2021 bull cycle reveal similar alternations between record highs and sharp corrections, suggesting that these dips may not necessarily indicate the end of the cycle. Instead, they have historically been “opportunities” for market rebalancing and subsequent growth. A key indicator analyzed is the 30-day moving average of the short-term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). This metric tracks whether recent market participants are selling at a profit or a loss. The current SOPR data reveals that recent short-term inflows into Bitcoin have yet to result in substantial profit-taking. Unlike previous cycle peaks characterized by aggressive selling, the ongoing correction appears subdued, indicating that the market may still have room for upward movement. Bitcoin Short-Term Dips vs. Long-Term Trends Additionally, Avocado Onchain highlights the importance of distinguishing between short-term corrections and broader cycle trends. Bitcoin’s tendency to rebound after corrections in past bull cycles reinforces the notion that the current downturn might not mark the cycle’s end. These insights align with the behaviour of long-term holders, who often use corrections to consolidate their positions, strengthening market resilience. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In For This Cycle? On-Chain Signals You Need To Know Avocado concluded the analysis, noting: For investors who have yet to enter the market, this may be an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount. Instead of succumbing to panic selling during short-term downturns, adopting a long-term perspective and a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy could be a more effective approach. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is seeing a gradual rebound in its price surging by 1.3% in the past 1 hour. Regardless, the asset still appears to be overshadowed by the bears as BTC remains down by 3.5% in the past day and 10.5% from its peak of $108,135 recorded last week. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Before yesterday’s plunge, Bitcoin recent rally was able to propel the asset to a new all-time high of $108,000, marking another significant milestone in its upward trajectory. However, according to latest analysis, this notable price surge is accompanied by signs of potential market volatility, as long-term holders begin to exhibit selling activity. Attention has been turned to the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, a critical tool for assessing the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks ATH Pushing Back Into Price Discovery – BTC To $130K? What Do Long-Term Holders Currently Signal? The Binary CDD metric tracks the activity of long-term holders by measuring the number of “coin days” destroyed relative to the total supply. When this metric spikes, it often indicates increased selling pressure from long-term investors. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, ShayanBTC, the Binary CDD metric has recently recorded a sharp increase, coinciding with Bitcoin’s new price high. Historically, such spikes in this metric have been precursors to market corrections, suggesting that these holders are taking advantage of current price levels to reduce their exposure. Shayan added that the long-term holders actions often serve as a barometer for broader market sentiment. The recent surge in the Binary CDD metric suggests that these holders might view the peak above $108,000 as a strategic exit point. If this selling pressure intensifies, it could lead to heightened market volatility and potentially trigger a price correction. Bitcoin Market Outlook Bitcoin has recorded a rollercoaster move in the past day. Particularly, following the FOMC news outcome yesterday along with the speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States, Bitcoin saw a significant plunge in its price dropping to as low as the $98,000 level. However, the latest price action has been quite interesting as BTC is showing a rebound. In the early hours of Thursday, Bitcoin saw a recovery in price after reclaiming the $100,000 to trade as high as above $105,000. Currently, Bitcoin has seen a retrace back to a price of $100,718, at the time of writing, marking a 3.5% decrease in the past day and roughly 6.6% reduction away from its all-time high (ATH). Meanwhile, adding to Shayan’s narrative, another CryptoQuant analyst, Onatt, highlighted additional market indicators that hint at potential turbulence. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, is currently in negative territory, indicating increased selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Still Mirroring Bullish Move From 2023, What To Expect After Hitting $108,000 ATH Furthermore, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), a metric used to gauge profit-taking behavior, has shown sudden spikes. According to Onatt, these signals collectively highlights the need for sustained institutional demand, particularly through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), to stabilize market conditions. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s upside momentum is holding firm, reaching a new all-time high and showcasing potential for more price growth towards critical resistance levels. While the recent move has triggered a wave of optimism about its future performance, pessimism still lingers among many individuals. Skeptics Remains Unchanged By Bitcoin’s Upward Strength Seasoned macro researcher and author at […]
The Bitcoin funding rate over the 30-day EMA signals “no visible signs of late-cycle overheating,” according to a crypto analyst.
Bitcoin has continued its upward trajectory as recent market trends highlight a shift in investor behaviour. According to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain, spot market demand has emerged as a significant driving force behind Bitcoin’s ongoing price increases. This trend indicates growing buying pressure from long-term investors, as speculative activity in the futures market appears to be cooling. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Key Metric Reveals When to Cash In Profits Bitcoin Spot Market Demand Gains Strength The analyst’s observations provide insights into Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle, which began in the first half of 2023. According to Avocado, initially, the futures market led the charge in pushing Bitcoin’s price upward, signalling a speculative phase fuelled by short-term traders. However, this momentum was interrupted earlier this year when both the futures and spot markets experienced reduced trading activity starting in March. Since October, market activity has returned, with trading volumes rising across both futures and spot markets, providing fresh support for Bitcoin’s rally. In his analysis, Avocado Onchain noted a key trend: while futures market activity has recently declined, demand in the spot market has been steadily increasing. Spot market activity refers to the actual purchase of Bitcoin on exchanges for immediate delivery, typically driven by investors with a long-term perspective. This stands in contrast to futures markets, where traders speculate on price movements using contracts that do not require immediate ownership of the asset. Spot Market Demand Takes the Lead as Bitcoin Continues Its Upward Momentum “While futures market activity has declined, spot market demand continues to increase. This suggests that speculative excess in the futures market is cooling, while buying pressure in the spot market is… pic.twitter.com/M4o4TsG02V — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 17, 2024 What This Means For BTC The analyst suggests that this shift indicates speculative excess in the futures market may be stabilizing. Historically, overheated futures markets have led to volatility, often triggering liquidations. However, the cooling of futures market activity, coupled with rising spot market demand, reflects a more sustainable form of buying pressure that can underpin Bitcoin’s long-term growth. The CryptoQuant analyst noted: Looking ahead, the futures market is likely to undergo cycles of overheating and liquidations, which will contribute to Bitcoin’s price growth. This price movement will, in turn, encourage further capital inflows into the spot market. Additionally, Avocado Onchain pointed to the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of Bitcoin’s funding rate, which shows “no signs of late-cycle overheating.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $180,000 If These Cycle Top Indicators Are Absent, Says VanEck’s Sigel The funding rate measures the cost of holding futures contracts and is often used as an indicator of market sentiment. Avocado mentioned that as BTC funding rate remains balanced, it suggests that BTC’s price movements are not being driven solely by leveraged positions, reducing the risk of sudden price reversals. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
In a statement on X, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, a leading on-chain analytics firm, provided a stark assessment of MicroStrategy’s financial health in relation to its Bitcoin investments. Can MicroStrategy Go Bankrupt? Ju stated, “MicroStrategy only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth. For 15 years, Bitcoin has never dropped below the cost […]
The general cryptocurrency community is brewing with excitement and optimism following Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high on Monday. Despite the significant price growth, there are speculations that the uptrend may not be ending anytime soon, suggesting BTC’s potential for more increases to higher levels or milestones. Next Big Milestone For Bitcoin On The […]
Given Bitcoin’s renewed upside momentum, robust optimism and confidence in the flagship digital asset have risen significantly within the crypto community. As a result, small-scale or retail investors are demonstrating a strong interest in BTC, indicated by their continuous accumulation of the coin at a rapid rate. Small Bitcoin Wallets Under 1 BTC On The […]
The Bitcoin price performance in 2024 is one for the history books, with the premier cryptocurrency crossing the $100,000 mark for the first time ever. However, hitting this milestone opened the door to another conversation — when will the market top be in? As a result, several predictions of the Bitcoin price top have emerged […]
Bitcoin “shrimps” are showing firm conviction that the price of Bitcoin is going to continue its uptrend, according to a crypto analyst.