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Market analyst MorenoDV_ reports a muted response by Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) to a combined attack by the US and Israel on Iran. The observation is important considering the previous sell-offs that have dominated the market in recent months. Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Line Of Fire: Price Dips To $63k As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran Bitcoin STH Reaction To Geopolitical Conflict Signals Seller Exhaustion – What Next?  The Bitcoin short-term holders refer to a cohort of investors who acquired Bitcoin over the last 155 days. They are described as the most reactive set of investors, and therefore, activity is often indicative of short-term volatility and price direction. According to MorenoDV_ in a QuickTake post on February 27, these short-term holders are showing a moderate market response to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran. Using data from the Bitcoin STH P&L to exchanges 24H, the renowned market analyst reports subdued inflows to exchanges, indicating no panic profit taking or loss capitulation, even despite an event that has historically triggered a mass sell-off. MorenoDV_ explains that this shift in market behavior came after the major market capitulation between February 5-6, when Bitcoin short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours. Following this event, loss-driven inflows appear to have steadily reduced, indicating sellers’ exhaustion, or a positive shift from panic to patience. With respect to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, there was no spike in STH exchange inflows even as prices dipped to around $63,000-$64,000. MorenoDV_ states that this important observation suggests a complete exit of weak hands from the market as well as significant absorption of recent liquidation pressure. Looking ahead, if the STH holders maintain a muted response to other bearish triggers, it would suggest a market stabilization phase that has historically preceded a bullish market recovery arc. On the other hand, an increase in STH exchange inflows and realized losses would indicate market drawdown is incomplete, and investors still stand at risk of further decline. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Fragile Phase As Annual LTH Realized Profits Taper — Details Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $67,007, reflecting a slight rebound of 4.41% in the last 24 hours. In tandem, daily trading volume is up by 0.81% and valued at $40.81 billion. The premier cryptocurrency continues to move within a defined range of $60,000-$70,000 as seen for the majority of February. While analysts continue to speculate on the cycle bottom, the conditions for a bullish reversal, such as a recovery in ETF inflows, a spike in LTH demand, or a dovish Fed outlook, also remain absent. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin price struggles persist as the premier cryptocurrency is yet to break above the key $70,000 resistance zone, suggesting the market remains at risk of a deeper correction. Notably, popular market analyst Yonsei_dent has shared an observation that backs these bearish investors’ expectations. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 Bitcoin Supply In Profit Metric Shows Potential 75% Drawdown  In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Yonsei_dent has identified a potential price bottom of the present market cycle, considering the meltdown in recent months. Since October, the leading cryptocurrency has lost over 45% of its market value, with prices dropping as low as $60,000 from an all-time high of $126,000. Using the Supply In Profit on-chain indicator, Yonsei_dent maps out the possible extent of Bitcoin’s price decline when in the bottom zone, based on historical cycle drawdown periods. For context, the Supply in Profit measures the portion of the total circulating Bitcoin whose current market price is higher than the price at which those coins last moved. It’s an important cycle indicator, as the Supply in Profit approaches extreme highs when near cycle tops, and compresses sharply when near cycle lows. Yonsei_dent explains that the duration of Bitcoin Supply in Profit in the bottom zone in 2022 was six months. During this market cycle, Bitcoin had initially hit an all-time high of $69,000 before crashing by 77% to around $15,500. According to the market analyst, if the same length of the bottom phase was placed on the current price chart, it represents a 70%-75% drawdown price projection for the present market cycle. In this case, Bitcoin is expected to find a price low within a range of $31,500 – $38,000, suggesting a further potential 41%-51% decline from the current market prices. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Bitcoin Price Overview  At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,553 following a 5.84% loss in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is up by a minor 0.54% and valued at $40.04 billion. The premier cryptocurrency also reports a negative performance on its weekly and monthly charts, with respective losses of 6.21% and 27.11%. Unless the market bulls convincingly reclaim the long standing $70k resistance, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile and prices vulnerable to additional downside or prolonged consolidation in the near term. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Crypto analyst BitQuant has commented on why market participants are not buying Bitcoin and Ethereum despite the recent lows. This comes amid current market weakness, with the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warning of a deeper decline.  Why Investors Are Not Buying The Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip  In an X post, BitQuant noted that no one, except Saylor’s Strategy, is buying Bitcoin at $65,000 because of reports that the U.S. may attack Iran. He added that if that happens, many believe that BTC will drop to $50,000, which is why they are not buying. Ethereum is expected to drop further if BTC declines.  Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week The analyst noted that these market participants are forgetting that Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $60,000 without any news or headlines, and that they consider this nuance unimportant. As such, he suggested that BTC and Ethereum could still see lower prices, whether or not the U.S. attacks Iran.  However, BitQuant indicated that current prices do not matter in the long-term as Bitcoin and possibly Ethereum are likely to trade higher. He stated that many still don’t understand that BTC is a system and that they only see it as an asset. The analyst added that for many, BTC resembles a football match where they celebrate when there is a goal and leave the stadium when there isn’t. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market are currently facing downside pressure not only due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran but also due to the uncertainty around the Trump tariffs. The U.S. president over the weekend announced plans to hike the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).   BTC Could Still Drop Below $40,000 A CryptoQuant analysis recently suggested that Bitcoin could still drop below $40,000 to around $38,900, which is the long-term holders’ (LTHs) cost basis. The analysis also alluded to historical precedent, noting that each bear market has been characterized by BTC’s price breaking below its cost basis. This triggers a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 The analysis also noted that it is only after this phase that the market has been able to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new highs. Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analysis mentioned that the Coinbase Premium Index shows limited signs of recovery.  The index’s 30-minute simple moving average had briefly crossed above the zero level but failed to maintain the momentum into the new week. CryptoQuant stated that this lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market saw an overwhelming sellers’ dominance, with no significant input from the bulls influencing the price. As the flagship cryptocurrency slipped into a downturn, investors increasingly fled the market out of fear, further pushing prices downwards. However, as the Bitcoin price seems to have found stability, an interesting on-chain revelation has also surfaced. If this change proves sustainable, it could mean something positive for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Mounting Pressure Accelerating OTC Outflows, Sign Of Possible Reversal? In their latest post on the CryptoQuant platform, CoinNiel shares an exciting hypothesis for the Bitcoin price, based on data from the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance. The analyst points out that the Bitcoin price might be at a point where a reversal is imminent. For context, the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance metric measures the total amount of Bitcoin currently being held in wallets associated with over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. When the balance is rising, it often implies that more BTC is being moved to these OTC desks. This is also a telltale sign of increasing sell appetite among Bitcoin’s large holders. On the contrary, falling values on this metric typically indicate that Bitcoin is being withdrawn from OTC desks. By extension, it could imply that institutional demand is growing, or that large holders are no longer positioning for sales.  According to the chart shared below, the Total OTC Desk Balance has taken on a sharp downtrend, meaning that there has been a significant amount of BTC sent out of the OTC market. Notably, this switch in investor behavior is happening around the same time as when Bitcoin regained its $68,000 footing. As a result, the BTC market sentiment appears to be shifting from pessimistic to slightly optimistic: instead of accumulating BTC for sale, OTC balances are instead contracting. This could be caused by increased buying from large holders or due to reduced selling appetite among Bitcoin’s market participants.  In the scenario where there is increased institutional accumulation of Bitcoin, it could be a sign that the Bitcoin price would soon make a big upside move. On the other hand, reduced selling activity is also good for the Bitcoin price, as it translates as reduced selling pressure, allowing for the short-term recovery of the flagship cryptocurrency’s price. CoinNiel, therefore, states as a caveat that the true drivers behind this dynamic remain to be confirmed. As a result, investors and other market participants should be alert when engaging with the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: Saylor Makes Bold $1M Bitcoin Call — “It’s Zero Or A Million” Bitcoin Price At A Glance At press time, Bitcoin holds a value of $67,953, reflecting a 24-hour devaluation of 0.17% per CoinMarketCap data. Since the past seven days, the flagship cryptocurrency has so far lost about 2.81% of its value.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

The middle of January marked the continuation of an already struggling price action for Bitcoin, as it took on another sharp downtrend. Early into February, the flagship cryptocurrency seemed to be on a free-fall, even breaching important psychological price levels as it crashed. One of these levels is the cost basis of one of Bitcoin’s most influential investor cohorts – the Bitcoin ETF investors. Data from a recent on-chain evaluation reveals that Bitcoin has since traded underneath this price, and has continued to meet investors with growing heat. Related Reading: Bithumb $43 Billion Bitcoin Blunder Triggers Political Backlash In South Korea MVRV Falls Below 1  — What This Means  Market analyst PelinayPA has recently taken to QuickTake to reveal that the Bitcoin price is trading below the average realized price of Bitcoin ETFs, and the possible implications of this market setup.  Notably, the ETF MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index has also slipped under the 1 mark, reinforcing the agitated situation of most ETF investors. Historically, a sustained move below an MVRV of 1 signals increasing stress conditions within the BTC market, as it reflects an overwhelming dominance of unrealized losses amid an investor group. According to PelinayPA, this condition may cause sell-pressure to heighten, seeing as market participants would increasingly act on their emotions when dealing in the market. As such, short-term recovery attempts are likely to be met with significant resistance (as is currently the case) until the situation sees a turnaround. This is because investors who entered at higher price levels would likely exit their positions at break-even, or even under minimal losses, to avoid deep losses. Because the realized price of Bitcoin ETFs is approximately $80,000, this price region could act as a strong resistance level in the event that the Bitcoin price attempts a rebound. PelinayPA clarifies that if MVRV stabilizes within the 0.8–0.9 range, it could be a sign that the current bear pressure is nearing an exhaustion point; a scenario that could precede a short-term rebound towards the realized price.  On the other hand, if the MVRV continues to decline (as the analyst expects), it could be problematic for the Bitcoin price. This is because ETFs would be under significant pressure, which could trigger sell-offs among this investor cohort. This would, in turn, increase downward pressure and further send prices downwards, especially in the long-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests Bitcoin Market Overview  As of this writing, Bitcoin trades for $68,000, reflecting a 1.58% growth in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. Per SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a total net outflow of about $1.08 billion in February. This is after an even more staggering net withdrawal figure of $1.61 billion in January.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) may be positioning for another significant upward move as on-chain data suggests strong accumulation activity among long-term holders. A CryptoQuant author, Darkfost on X, highlighted a significant rise in demand from accumulator addresses that consistently acquire and retain Bitcoin. According to him, the current behavior of these investors could influence market sentiment and trigger a price bounce in Bitcoin.  Bitcoin Accumulation Activity Suggests Future Upside Darkfost’s CryptoQuant chart analysis shows that monthly accumulation from “accumulator addresses” now averages around 372,000 BTC, up sharply from 10,000 BTC per month in September 2024. This substantial increase in long-term buying indicates a strategic positioning that contrasts with the recent short-term trading behavior in the market. Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance His chart also shows that demand from accumulator addresses was steadily increasing each year. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s latest price decline appears to have created opportunities for these long-term investors to continue buying aggressively. Rather than reacting to ongoing price volatility, they appear to be focused on Bitcoin’s future growth and are positioning ahead of any potential bounce.  Notably, Darkfrost has indicated that the scale of the recent accumulation is unprecedented, suggesting a large portion of Bitcoin has consistently been removed from circulation. As demand continues to increase and supply declines, this could create ideal conditions for an upward price movement.  The recent accumulation trend also highlights a major contrast between short-term trading and deliberate positioning. Accumulator addresses tend to show a disciplined, patient approach to investing, which has historically aligned with periods of stronger market performance. Their aggressive buying may act as a stabilizing factor in the market and provide early indicators for a possible price rebound.  The same principle applies to periods with notable sell-offs and weak demand. When investor sentiment is low, particularly in highly volatile conditions, it can contribute to more pronounced downtrends.  How Accumulator Addresses Are Identified Darkfost notes that CryptoQuant identifies accumulator addresses using a detailed set of criteria. According to him, these addresses show no outflows and must have purchased a minimum amount of BTC in their latest transaction. Each address must also have at least two separate purchasing events or inflows, hold a minimum total Bitcoin balance, and have been active at least once over the past seven years.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” To ensure accuracy, CryptoQuant also excludes known exchanges and miner addresses, as well as any addresses that interact with smart contracts. This framework helps reduce distortions and provides a clearer picture of long-term holders actively accumulating Bitcoin.  Darkfost emphasized that the identification and selection process is precise and thorough, allowing confidence in the validity of the observed accumulation. While CryptoQuant takes extensive measures to be accurate, the report acknowledges that selection is not perfect and cannot capture every entity, such as centralized exchanges or miners. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain data shows CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has witnessed a deep plunge into the bearish territory recently. Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Now Most Bearish Since 2022 Bottom In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. This metric tells us, as its name suggests, about the market phase that the cryptocurrency is currently inside. The indicator is based on another CryptoQuant metric called the P&L Index, which combines the data of key on-chain indicators to build a single valuation index for Bitcoin. More specifically, the metrics that the P&L Index uses are the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. Related Reading: 46% Of Bitcoin Supply Now In Loss—What It Could Take For A Bottom The MVRV Ratio and NUPL both deal with unrealized network profits/losses, while the LTH/STH SOPR with profits/losses being realized by the investors through their transactions. According to CryptoQuant, the P&L Index’s interactions with its 365-day MA signal whether the asset is switching to a bull or bear market. Breaks above the MA indicate that the cryptocurrency is moving into a bullish regime, while falls below it can signal a bearish transition. The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tracks the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA to showcase whether the market is transitioning or if the metric is valued at an extreme. Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Maartunn that shows how its value has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator plunged into the region below zero during the last few months of 2025, suggesting that the P&L Index crossed below its 365-day MA. As mentioned earlier, such a crossover is a sign of a bearish shift. Since the indicator has gone into this zone, its value has only fallen deeper as the cryptocurrency has seen its negative price action. Following the most recent drop, the metric has hit low levels not seen since the 2022 bear market bottom that followed the FTX crash. The trend is an indication that the P&L Index is approaching an extreme point below the 365-day MA. In the past, market lows have generally been reached alongside such values on the index. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? That said, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has usually spent a bit of time in the “extreme bear” zone before the cryptocurrency has found a reversal. It now remains to be seen how long the metric will take this time around. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,000, down 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

The XRP price continues to struggle amid bear pressure within the market. On Friday, XRP rose by about 5.7%, which, while positive, was only a relief to an initial 7.1% loss seen earlier during the week. Meanwhile, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that the XRP market could soon be entering an accumulation phase that could pave the way for strong market demand and recovery. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says XRP Exchange Reserves Fall To 2024 Lows In a recent post on QuickTake, pseudonymous analyst CryptoOnchain reveals that the amount of XRP on the Binance exchange has dipped extensively to the downside of the charts. This post derives its credibility from the XRP Ledger: Exchange Reserve – Binance metric. CryptoOnchain explains that the XRP exchange reserves have recently fallen to levels as low as 2.5 billion XRP. This level, notes the analyst, is the lowest yet since the early months of 2024. As of November 2024, the Binance reserves had peaked at approximately 3.2 billion in XRP, and have since taken on a downward trend. Compared to its current readings, it becomes apparent that investors have pulled more than 700 million XRP off Binance in the past 15 months. Usually, when coins are moved en masse to exchanges, it signals preparedness among investors to offload their tokens. On the other hand, reduced inflows to exchanges reflect increasing reluctance to shave off holdings and growing investor conviction. Hence, CryptoOnchain explains that the outflow of XRP from exchanges suggests a significant reduction in sell-side liquidity.   Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? Declining Reserves, Possible Sign Of Accumulation: Analyst CryptoOnchain further explains that declining exchange reserves have often served as signs of upcoming accumulation, and could be a bullish signal in the short-term. This is because, as has been mentioned earlier, lower holdings on exchanges reflect declining appetite among market participants towards selling their holdings.  Interestingly, CryptoOnchain also points out that this current trend in exchange reserves could be telling us that investors are moving their assets out of exchanges into cold storage in order to focus on long-term growth. This present scenario paints a more optimistic view for the XRP price. The crypto pundit summarizes the situation, stating that XRP reserves hitting a two-year low could create a supply shock such that any rebound in market demand could initiate a significant price gain. As of press time, XRP holds a valuation of $1.40. CoinMarketCap data reflects that the cryptocurrency has seen a 3.07% gain over the past 24 hours. Featured image from The Economic Times, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Ethereum whales have continued to accumulate despite the current downtrend in the ETH price, providing a bullish outlook for the second-largest crypto by market cap. Notably, ETH withdrawals from exchanges recently reached their highest level since October last year, totaling over $400 million.  Ethereum Whales Accelerate Withdrawals From Exchanges Crypto analyst Arab Chain noted in a CryptoQuant analysis that rising Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges have reached their highest level since October. The analyst noted that the exchange netflow data over the past few days indicates a clear acceleration in withdrawal activity. This signals a shift in Ethereum whales’ behavior as demand outpaces supply.  Related Reading: Can Ethereum Price Still Hit $7,600 In 2026? Here Are The Odds Arab Chain revealed that across all exchanges, the net Ethereum outflows have exceeded 220,000 ETH, marking the highest level of withdrawals since October last year. This suggests that Ethereum whales are moving their coins to private wallets or long-term storage protocols, a move that the analyst noted is often associated with accumulation phases or risk-reduction behavior.  Notably, daily net outflows on Binance reached nearly 158,000 ETH on February 5, the largest since August last year. Arab Chain stated that this confirms that a substantial portion of the recent outflows has been concentrated on the exchange with the deepest liquidity. From a price perspective, the analyst noted that the Ethereum whale accumulation coincided with ETH trading near the $1,800 to $2,000 range.  Therefore, these Ethereum whales may see these levels as attractive zones for holding or repositioning amid this crypto market downtrend. Arab Chain added that the continued outflow of ETH from exchanges at this scale reduces immediate selling pressure and could provide near-term support for the ETH price, especially if the market gains momentum again.  Ethereum Staking Hits New High According to Token Terminal, Ethereum staking has surpassed 30% of the total supply, marking a new all-time high (ATH) in terms of staking ratio. Market commentator The Milk Road noted that this means that 36.8 million ETH, around $72 billion, is now locked up, with almost 1 million validators securing the network.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? The Milk Road further described this development as a sign of conviction in the Ethereum ecosystem, noting that these whales are willing to lock up $74 billion during a market downtrend. Notably, the staking exit queue is around 4.1 million ETH, which the market commentator remarked is nothing compared to what is currently staked.  Interestingly, it also takes about 72 days to stake ETH at the moment, with staking demand at a new high. Meanwhile, the Milk Road also noted that the obvious impact is a significant supply restriction, which is a bullish catalyst for the ETH price.  At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $1,965, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price structure is showing signs of strain, and new data from CryptoQuant shows that fresh capital is no longer entering the market. Instead of the recent drawdown acting as an attraction for buyers, it appears to be triggering withdrawals. This change in liquidity behavior is important, as it indicates that Bitcoin may be transitioning into deeper bear market conditions. Notably, on-chain metrics tracking new liquidity flows are revealing negative cumulative inflows over the past month. Selling Pressure Builds, New Investor Inflows Flip Negative According to a recent analysis that was done on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative new investor flow has dropped to approximately $2.6 billion.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin And The Best Time To Sell This metric was revealed from CryptoQuant’s ‘Bitcoin New Investor Flow’ data, which is revealing that more capital is leaving the ecosystem than entering it. The data shows that the ongoing dip is failing to attract meaningful participation from new buyers. Interestingly, the current reading of this metric is displaying a huge contrast between previous bull phases and current conditions. Large spikes in new money, visible in blue in the chart below, accompanied strong price rallies, particularly in 2017, 2021, and again during the 2024-2025 bull market. Those inflow surges coincided with powerful upside momentum in terms of price action. At present, those spikes are notably absent. Instead, the lower section of the chart is displaying growing red readings due to net capital outflows. The latest print is below zero, which shows that sell-offs are not being absorbed by fresh liquidity. This dynamic matters because markets rely on marginal buyers to sustain higher prices. When new participants step back, price action becomes vulnerable to deeper pullbacks. That is why there is a need for new buyers to absorb the selloffs. Low Liquidity Raises Crash Risks Although liquidity contraction does not automatically guarantee another major crash, it increases fragility of price action. Bitcoin, for one, is still trading below $70,000, although bulls have largely prevented further breakdowns below $60,000. This, in turn, has kept the Bitcoin price trading in a range around $70,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Caught Between Two Liquidity Traps — Which Side Breaks First? However, many crypto analysts are of the notion that Bitcoin could still crash further to lower price levels. Calls for a deeper correction are circulating across trading platforms and social media, with projected bottoms stretching from around $55,000 to as low as $30,000. The absence of inflow spikes suggests that Bitcoin may struggle to regain momentum in the near term. If liquidity continues to dry up, the probability of another significant leg lower before a rebound increases. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $67,160, reflecting a modest 0.3% gain over the past 24 hours. This price behavior is unfolding alongside a slowdown in mining activity due to miners shutting down their systems, which led to the largest mining difficulty drop since 2021. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The price of XRP has shown a sheer amount of resilience after a couple of red days for the general crypto market. The altcoin has managed to return to around $1.5 over the weekend, reflecting a nearly 25% jump since reaching its latest local low. However, this fresh burst of momentum seems to be just that, a short-lived moment of positivity that might not translate to the long-term trajectory. According to the latest on-chain data, the XRP price might still be tilting more towards the bearish side of the market. Low Funding Rate Signals Reduced Appetite In Derivatives Market In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, Arab Chain revealed that belief might be increasingly exiting the XRP derivatives market. This on-chain observation is based on changes in the funding rates on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak For context, the “funding rate” metric estimates the periodic fee exchanged between traders in the derivatives market of a particular cryptocurrency. A positive funding rate often signals that the long traders (investors with buy positions) are paying a fee to short traders (investors with sell positions) in the derivatives market, while a low funding rate metric implies that the payment is the other way round. As shown in the chart above, the XRP funding rate on Binance has been in a notable decline over the past few days, recently dropping to around -0.028, reflecting its lowest level since April 2025. According to Arab Chain, this shift signals a clear move toward defensive positioning and hedging against further downside. The on-chain analyst revealed that a deeply negative funding rate shows the level of pessimism in the market, as traders are more willing to pay a premium to hold short positions. This trend is even more damaging, considering the decline seen by the XRP price in the past few weeks. Arab Chain wrote in the Quicktake post: Historically, funding rates reaching extreme negative levels often coincide with advanced stages of downtrends, when a large portion of traders are already positioned short. While low funding rates have sometimes set the stage for temporary rebounds triggered by a return of speculative demand, they often reflect heightened caution and reduced risk appetite in the market. Nevertheless, this funding rate level also suggests that any uptick in sentiment could catalyse “faster-than-expected” price moves. XRP Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of XRP stands at around $1.44, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Breathe… XRP Is The ‘Oxygen’ Of The New Financial System, CEO Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Since reaching its current all-time-high price of $126,000 in October last year, the Bitcoin market has been on a sell-off, translating into surmounting bear pressure. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency has maintained a steady decline, falling until it recently reached $60,000 — a deviation of more than 52% from its all-time high.  Bitcoin currently seems to be seeing a rebound, but price action alone reflects that it could as well be one of its short-term recoveries. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that the current upward movement may be driven by a significant underlying metric. Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? What The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Is Saying In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Darkfost reveals that the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is now at a zone historically relevant to the ends of bear markets. The Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted performance metric that measures how much return an asset (Bitcoin, in this case) generates for risk taken. A high ratio signals that returns are strong in relation to risks taken; a declining ratio, on the other hand, reflects weakening returns, while risk remains elevated.  On the severe end of the metric, a very low or negative Sharpe Ratio is a sign that market participants are taking very high risks for poor or negative returns. It is worth noting that very low Sharpe ratios are frequently seen during deep bear markets or even capitulation phases. According to historical data, Darkfost explains that the Sharpe Ratio is currently at a level so low as to be reminiscent of the final phases of past bear markets. This means that the Bitcoin price holds a higher practical risk, compared to returns, for current investors.  Notably, the Sharpe ratio is not just at a low point, but continues in a steady state of decline. This, according to the market quant, is a sign that Bitcoin’s performance is yet to be attractive to any willing risk-taker.  However, it is this specific dynamic that sets the pace for a turnaround in Bitcoin’s price. This is because sustained poor returns typically force capitulation events, where weaker hands are flushed out; this eventually sets the stage for renewed accumulation among stronger hands. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak Two Main Approaches To Consider In This Scenario: Analyst Seeing as the current market condition is still mostly uncertain, Darkfost offers two ways to engage the current scenario. First, the analyst states that investors could begin increasing exposure gradually, and in line with the ratio’s movement towards lower risk zones. Second, Darkfost explains that a market participant could decide to wait for clear improvements in the Sharpe Ratio before entering the market at all. This is to serve as a confirmation strategy for the purpose of investor safety. However, Darkfost notes that the present bear phase could last a couple more months before any true reversal is seen, regardless of the signal being flashed by the Sharpe Ratio. As of this writing, Bitcoin stands at a $69,064 valuation. CoinMarketCap data reflects a 1.71% loss over the past day. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

The Bitcoin price displayed a staggering show of bearish pressure over the week. As the premier cryptocurrency lost its footing around the $84,000 support level, it entered a slippery slide, reaching approximately $60,000. Currently, the market is in recovery mode, with its price rising again to $70,000. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation has emerged, lending more credence to expectations of a price rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues MVRV Data Reveals Bitcoin Market Is Under ‘Severe Stress’ In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, popular market analyst Darkfost postulates that the recent Bitcoin price action has given an apparently strong buy signal. This is based on data from the Bitcoin: MVRV Percentile – Current Cycle (0-100%) indicator. For context, this metric shows where Bitcoin’s current MVRV ratio ranks in the ongoing cycle, relative to all past values. This serves as a means to identify whether the market is historically undervalued or overheated. According to Darkfost, the MVRV sits within the 0 to 10 % percentile. This is a notably low level for the present Bitcoin cycle, seeing as the MVRV has held higher levels than the current value for more than 90% of this cycle’s period. Practically, readings around this level indicate that the majority of Bitcoin holders are doing so with minimal unrealized profits, or even outright losses, compared to their cost bases. This is often a telltale sign that the Bitcoin market has experienced a period of extreme stress, accompanied by multiple liquidations and investor exhaustion. However, this period is only part of a broader cyclical trend. Darkfost explains that the Bitcoin market (like other big assets) tends to enter overheated phases, followed by corrections, and then overstressed phases, which have often preceded bullish recoveries. Notably, transitions out of the 0–10% MVRV range have often been followed by price stabilization and eventual upwards movement. On the other hand, the 90% zone often represents overheated market conditions, which precedes heavy profit-taking activity and subsequent correction.  Although MVRV data alone does not singularly confirm that the Bitcoin price would achieve a full-scale recovery, it indicates strong potential for a positive momentum boost to reclaim key valuation levels. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 Bitcoin Price Overview  As of press time, Bitcoin trades for approximately $67,855. According to CoinMarketCap data, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has recovered by more than 4.00% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 38.16% and valued at $88.37 billion.  Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Amid a recent Bitcoin price rebound, Coinbase Premium data shows that American investors are renewing their bullish interest. Notably, the latest price relief only closes a negatively volatile trading week in which Bitcoin experienced a free price fall, as 30% loss pushed prices to around $60,000.  This market plunge by the premier cryptocurrency has been attributed to many factors, including collapsing leverages, high levels of ETF outflows, metals market volatility, and also investors’ expectations in line with the typical boom and bust market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off May Be Done, Analyst Flags Recovery Signs Coinbase Premium Turns Positive After Successful $60K Retest The Coinbase Premium, one of the most important Bitcoin market indicators, shows the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and its price on other major exchanges. It is largely used to measure how much more or less US investors are paying to acquire Bitcoin compared to international traders. According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, the Coinbase premium has maintained a negative value since mid-January, suggesting that US traders valued the asset lower compared to their global counterparts, leading to a weak market demand. However, since Bitcoin bounced off the $60,000 support following the recent bloodbath, the American market participants have rediscovered their market confidence as indicated by a rising demand and corresponding movement of the Coinbase Premium into a positive zone.  During this time, the flagship cryptocurrency has shown moderate resilience, climbing by over 16% to presently trade around $70,000. However, it is worth noting that the positive Coinbase Premium reading does not singularly confirm an impending full-scale recovery.  Other factors need to be considered, including macroeconomic developments such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and liquidity tightening policies, overall global market sentiment, and geopolitical stability. Related Reading: Dogecoin Drops Below $0.09 as Market Weakness Outweighs Musk Hype Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,892, representing a 6.44% gain in the past day. However, significant losses of 17.34% and 23.38% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively, show the asset is still deep in bearish territory.  According to a recent post from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has been about 50% away from its all-time high (ATH). Notably, recent bear markets recorded price slumps as low as 70%-80% indicating, indicating that there is a high possibility of a deeper price correction. However, CryptoQuant analysts warn that the bigger concern is time capitulation, i.e., how long this market winter will stay compared to how low prices may fall. With a market cap of $1.4 trillion, Bitcoin continues to account for over 55% of the total crypto market cap and is the largest digital asset in the world. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin bearish sentiments continue to dominate the market, after prices fell below the key $80,000 on January 31, resulting in a new wave of market liquidations. Interestingly, a pseudonymous analyst with the username CryptoMe has identified an “air pocket” in the present price structure, which potentially points to the downside target of this recent price drop. Related Reading: Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR Shows Market At Pivotal Junction — What’s Next? Bitcoin Now Below $80K Support Zone – What Next? In a QuickTake post on January 31, CryptoMe draws attention to an existing price vacuum between $73,000 – $80,000 as confirmed by three different market metrics. This observation is important in anticipating Bitcoin downside targets, considering the presently heightened market fears following the latest price decline.  According to CryptoMe, liquidity levels on the Binance spot order book showed a concentration of limit buy orders between $73,000 – $80,000 that formed between late October and early November. Despite the price surge from $80,000 to around  $100,000 seen in late Q4 2025, the liquidity cluster price zone remained untouched. Therefore, the zone is likely to act as a short-term price magnet should bearish momentum persist, as markets often gravitate toward areas of unfilled liquidity during periods of heightened volatility. Another on-chain metric that supports the existence of an air pocket between $73,000 – $80,000 is the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) price histogram. Each Bitcoin transaction consumes existing UTXOs and creates new ones; therefore, UTXOs are a good measure of on-chain transaction activity.  As seen in the chart above, the sparse UTXO density between $73,000 and $80,000 suggests that a small number of transactions occurred within this price range. Thus, investors failed to establish a cost basis that would prevent further price decline, as prices have now slipped below $80,000.   The final metric highlighted by CryptoMe is the Spot ETF Investor Average Cost, which currently stands at $79,000. Following the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has failed to trade below its realized price until now. Considering all three metrics, it’s likely that Bitcoin is headed for the $73,000 price mark, which the market has not visited since April 2025. Moreover, such a decline would represent a 40% devaluation from the present market all-time high.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Performance Shows How Low The Price Will Go Before A Bottom Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $78,558, reflecting a 6.5% increase in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, total trading volume is up by 37.15% and valued at $74.67 billion. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Over the past week, the Bitcoin market experienced new waves of liquidations with prices dropping to around $81,000 on Thursday. Though the premier cryptocurrency has seen a slight rebound since then, bearish sentiments remain dominant with analysts expecting a potential decline to as low as $56,000. Amid this recent correction, a developing on-chain situation has reached a boiling point, putting the Bitcoin market at a critical juncture. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Slide To $82K Sets Off A $1.7 Billion Chain Reaction Bitcoin aSOPR Holds Clue To Next Market Phase – Analyst  The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an on-chain metric used to measure whether Bitcoin investors are, on average, selling their coins at a profit or at a loss, while filtering out noise from short-term, low-value movements. In usual market trends, each new price peak is accompanied by higher conviction as investors are willing to hold longer, take profits later, and tolerate larger drawdowns because they expect even higher prices. However, during Bitcoin’s ascent from around $40,000 in early 2024 to over $100,000, the aSOPR has shown a different pattern as observed by market analyst MorenoDV. Despite a consistent uptrend resulting in multiple price peaks, Bitcoin aSOPR established a downtrend pattern marked by lower highs and lower lows, thereby creating a puzzling market divergence. According to MorenoDV, this development suggests that Bitcoin traders were aggressively taking profits with each rally, indicating a lack of long-term market confidence. Considering the descending profit-taking pattern, it can also be inferred that investors were satisfied with smaller and smaller gains, suggesting they were no longer convinced that upside continuation was likely. Related Reading: Bitmine Stakes Additional 250,912 Ethereum Worth $745M – 61% Is Now Staked The Present Market Debacle  Despite the ongoing divergence, it is still observed that aSOPR respects the general market trend with each high in its descending channel aligning with a local price top, while each retest of the lower boundary coincides with a market bottom.  Presently, the aSOPR is retesting this lower boundary, in a fear-ridden market with over 30% of market supply in a loss. Ideally, MorenoDV explains these are accumulation opportunities, especially in further consideration of the negative aSOPR. However, the analyst warns that a decisive fall below this line could strengthen present bearish sentiments, resulting in an intense market capitulation, as an already fearful set of investors would likely initiate a sell-off. At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade around $83,819, reflecting 0.41% decline in the past day.  Following the recent liquidations, the market leader is now 34% away from its all time high of around $126,100. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview

For most of the week, the Ethereum price has remained in a range-bound spell, putting in no significant movement outside of the $3,000 and $2,880 price boundaries. Amid rising speculations, an on-chain analysis has recently been put out, which provides an answer to the question. Related Reading: Bitcoin Metric Suggests Miners Are In Recovery Mode — Price To Follow? Open Interest Across Exchanges Falls To $17 Billion In their latest QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, analytics platform Arab Chain reveals that there has been a fall in active Ethereum derivatives contracts across major exchanges, as indicated by data from the Ethereum: Open Interest-All Exchanges, All Symbol metric. Typically, rising Open Interest (OI) across exchanges indicates that more traders are entering leveraged positions. On the other hand, falling OI reflects more exits of leveraged positions, and by extension, reduced aversion to risk. In the Quicktake post, Arab Chain highlights that open interest across exchanges has dipped to about $16.9 billion, marking the lowest level reached since mid-December last year. This, in turn, reflects an overall reduction in risk appetite across the Ethereum derivatives market. Because there is less speculative activity, there are also reduced risks of liquidations. Hence, the Ethereum price stands a higher chance of consolidating.   Related Reading: Analyst Says You’re Not Bullish Enough On Ethereum – What Does He Mean? What’s Happening On Binance? While exchanges in general are recording significant pull-outs from the derivatives market, Binance has shown an outlier performance. Arab Chain highlights that the world’s largest exchange by trading volume has instead recorded about $7.5 billion in Open Interest. Interestingly, this reading slightly exceeds the December average range of $6.8–$7.4 billion.  The divergence between the Open Interest values across all exchanges and that of Binance suggests that, while market participants are reducing their risk exposure, there is still liquidity in the derivatives market. Rather than a blatant exit, it has been repositioned toward the deeper and more liquid venue. Arab Chain also explains that this behavior indicates a change in market operations from a higher-risk trading environment to one more price and risk efficient. In conclusion, the large traders are yet to make their exits but are merely reducing their exposure, while holding high-quality positions on Binance. In addition, Ethereum’s proximity to the $3,000 price — especially as OI declines — shows that the market has been absorbing the deleveraging events while showing little selling pressure. Ultimately, Binance’s OI retaining levels above December’s support the idea that the market still has strong derivatives backing. Hence, the broader picture remains bullish. As of this writing, Ethereum trades at $2,958, reflecting a 0.33% growth since the past day, according to CoinMarketCap data. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com

While blockchain data confirms the movement to Coinbase Prime, the transfer could also mean internal asset management or custody.

The Shiba Inu price crashed to as low as $0.000007683 yesterday, sparking bearish sentiment towards the meme coin. This crash came on the back of a transfer of billions of SHIB tokens, which raised concerns of a potential sell-off by the whale in question.  Why The Shiba Inu Price Crashed The Shiba Inu price crashed amid significant selling pressure, with a SHIB whale sending billions of tokens to Robinhood, likely to offload these tokens. Arkham data shows that the whale (0x2d0…9f7bB) first sent 210.365 billion SHIB tokens, worth $1.63 million, to the crypto exchange. These tokens represented about 97% of the whale’s SHIB holdings. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Sell-Offs Incoming: 82 Trillion Deposits Threaten To Crash SHIB Price Further data from Arkham shows that the SHIB whale sent an additional 1.52 billion tokens to Robinhood and 7 billion tokens to liquidity provider B2C2 Group, which could be an OTC sale. The Shiba Inu price has notably crashed by over 7% in the last week, and it suffered its worst drop during this period yesterday amid the whale’s transfers. The whale now holds only 5.86 billion SHIB, worth $46,790. The Shiba Inu price also crashed due to the sell-off in the broader crypto market, led by Bitcoin. BC dropped to as low as $87,000 yesterday amid concerns over trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe stemming from the Greenland-linked Trump tariffs. However, the market recovered towards the end of the day as Trump announced that he had canceled the proposed tariffs, having reached a Greenland deal with NATO.   Despite the recent Shiba Inu price crash, the meme coin is still up over 15% year-to-date (YTD) and ranks among the best-performing crypto assets this year. However, SHIb is still far off from its current all-time high (ATH) of $0.00008845.  Exchange Netflows For SHIB Remains Mixed SHIB’s exchange netflows have remained mixed, indicating there is no clear accumulation pattern for the meme coin at the moment. CryptoQuant data shows that today’s net flows are negative, totaling just over 7 billion Shiba Inu tokens, suggesting that more coins are flowing into exchanges than out.  However, the total exchanges’ netflows yesterday were positive, at 1.6 billion tokens, indicating more tokens leaving exchanges, which is bullish for the Shiba Inu price as it hints at accumulation from whales. On January 16, SHIB’s netflows were also positive, totaling around 115 billion tokens. However, the positive netflows on that day were overshadowed by the negative flows of 214 billion SHIB recorded on January 20.    Related Reading: Here’s Why The Shiba Inu Price Jumped Over 13% Crypto traders still remain bullish on the Shiba Inu price as CoinGlass data shows the long/short ratio is currently above 1. Derivatives trading volume has also jumped by over 20% while the open interest is up almost 3%.  At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000007978, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin recently failed to overcome the $97,000 resistance following its price surge seen in mid-January. At the moment, the leading cryptocurrency has taken on a state of inertia, with no significant movement in either direction seen. However, an investigation of on-chain dynamics has recently revealed that trouble might be looming for the flagship cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Weekend Liquidity Sets In — $98,200 And $107,500 In Focus Sudden Inflows: Caution Or Opportunity? In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, key opinion leader CryptoZeno shares a potentially foreboding observation on Bitcoin’s market dynamics, saying the premier cryptocurrency could be facing a risk of distribution in the near-term. This conjecture is based on the Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow (Total) – All Exchanges metric, which serves the basic function of tracking the total amount of BTC transferred into centralized exchanges over a certain period.  CryptoZeno highlights in the post that exchange inflows have seen sharp surges through Bitcoin’s most-recent trading sessions, which represent one of the most significant spikes seen in the month of January. Typically, large inflows of BTC into exchanges act as a telltale sign that investors are preparing to distribute their holdings. This is contrary to any inclination towards long-term holding. Interestingly, the sign of distribution-readiness is more typical if the event were to occur just after a strong advance of the BTC price.  Also citing historical occurrences, CryptoZeno explains that such behavior, where BTC holders increasingly send their tokens to exchanges, suggests that investors are venturing out of Bitcoin and to more “liquid venues.” Expectedly, such a massive dispersal of their holdings would translate into price as increased sell-side pressure, especially in the short-term.  Notably, the analyst makes it clear that inflows alone do not tell a sure story of an immediate reversal. More accurately, spikes in exchange inflows often come before heightened volatility periods or corrective price action. Related Reading: Are XRP ETFs About To Act Like Banks? Expert Thinks So Analyst Highlights Mid- To Large-Size Bands As Main BTC ‘Movers’ CryptoZeno provides more context by merging the Spent Output Value Bands with the Exchange Inflow metric. This shows which investor cohort was more involved in creating the distribution signal seen. On inspection of the blended metric, it becomes apparent that the spike in exchange inflows was largely induced by mid-to-large size bands (10-100 BTC, and 100-1,000BTC). These size bands, according to the crypto expert, are associated with whales, long-term investors who are repositioning, or even ETFs. These investor classes do not merely act without strategic reasons. As a result, their activity is usually more important compared to retail activity. A simultaneous increment to exchange inflows, alongside large investor distribution, is another sign that the Bitcoin market is on the brink of a fragile phase. In the event that inflows remain high as price struggles to reclaim past highs, the world’s leading cryptocurrency could be entering a phase of trouble, as it would suggest the predominance of supply over demand. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth $95,250, recording almost no growth since the past day. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Over the week, Ethereum struggled to sustain any significant move to the upside. Although the second-largest cryptocurrency reclaimed the $3,300 price level, it could not break above $3,400 to continue its path towards higher price levels. As it stands, it appears that the Ether token is taking on a short-term bearish structure. However, an on-chain evaluation has recently been put out, which suggests that market participants might be gearing up for a significant move in the near-term. Related Reading: The Ethereum MACD Crossover That Could Lead To A Massive Bull Wave Ethereum Futures Activity Reaches Monthly High Following Market Inactivity In a recent QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analytics group Arab Chain reveals that there has recently been a spike in futures trading activity on the Binance derivatives market. This revelation is based on the Binance: ETH Futures Daily Volume metric, which monitors the total value of Ethereum futures contracts being traded on Binance each day, hence reflecting market activity, trader participation, and potential leverage exposure. The latest reading of the metric has highlighted a major shift, with trading volume climbing as high as $21.7 billion. According to Arab Chain, this reading marks the highest level since mid-December, reflecting that strong momentum has returned to the futures market.   Notably, the spike in futures trading volume was preceded by a period of relative decline in the second half of December. This event coincides with a period of price stability, alongside a tapering risk appetite among traders. Interestingly, institutional investors also contributed prevalent aversion to risk.  Arab Chain explains that the decline is a typical sign that market participants want to “wait and see,” instead of speculatively opening large positions. However, the present scenario — where futures volume surged — paints an opposing story. As the futures trading volume reflects levels above its mid-December high, it becomes apparent that interest among Ethereum traders is being rekindled. This is because increasing futures volume “is typically associated with higher leverage usage, hedging activity, and speculative positioning” — a line up which indicates that the market is preparing for significant movement. The reason for this spike could also be attributed to traders who are reacting to key technical levels or shifting expectations around near-term price action of a potential trend reversal. In the grand scheme, however, the Ethereum price reacts to this activity, depending on the alignment of spot demand with derivatives activity. Till such a definite sign comes up, the market stands at a point of uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Still Rally Above $99,000 Despite Bearish Sentiment, Here’s Why ETH Price Overview As of this writing, Ethereum stands at a price of $3,292, reflecting no real growth since the past day. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin continues to hover within the $90,000 price range, producing no significant price movement in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, a subtle on-chain development is indicating a potential change in market trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Is Not In At $126,000, According To The Business Cycle, Here’s Why STH SOPR Above 1 — Bullish Rebound Or Fakeout?  The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is a key on-chain metric that judges investors’ sentiment. In definition, the STH-SOPR measures whether Bitcoin holders are presently selling their assets at a loss or at a profit. According to pseudonymous analyst CryptoMe, this important on-chain metric has recently flashed an eye-catching signal that could imply a trend reversal following months of deep market corrections. Notably,  Bitcoin slipped into a prolonged downtrend in early October, after establishing its current all-time high at $126,100. On October 10, which represents the initial phase of this price correction, CryptoMe states the STH-SOPR fell below 1.0 in line with its natural behavior. As seen in the image above, the Bitcoin STH-SOPR stays below 1.0 during bear seasons to indicate that BTC holders are exiting at a loss. During this period, it is also observed that 1.0 midline acts as an effective resistance, restricting upward STH-SOPR movement to signal that the market structure remains weak. Alternatively, in bullish markets, the STH-SOPR moves above 1.0, which becomes a strong price floor provided a buy-side dominance remains. According to CryptoMe, this latter positive scenario has occurred in the past week, marking the first instance after October 10. In line with standard interpretation, CryptoMe explains that this recent development represents a new hope for a possible trend reversal if the STH-SOPR sustains its move above the 1.0 threshold. Notably, an opposite case would suggest a fake-out and possibly reinforce existing bearish market sentiments. Related Reading: Bitcoin Maintains Mid-$90k Levels: Possible Price Targets — Analyst Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,590, after a negligible 0.13% gain in the past 24 hours. However, its daily trading volume is down by 66.41% and valued at $13.38 billion. This suggests that market participation is fading out amid a sustained consolidation. In terms of a potential breakout, emerging market catalysts suggest an equal potential for the price to swing in either direction. For example, the odds of the Federal Open Market Committee implementing a rate cut have dropped drastically from 95% to 5%. Following recent predictions, the policy committee is likely to hold the rates steady, which may draw out a possible negative reaction from Bitcoin. On the other hand, regulatory developments in the US are shaping up positively. Most notably, the Clarity Act has been slated for a markup session, indicating progress toward regulatory clarity that could encourage further institutional and retail investment. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

After encountering significant resistance around the $94,000 local high, Bitcoin has retraced to a psychological and technical key support at $90,000. Interestingly, this price correction coincides with a significant change in on-chain dynamics. Here are the details. Related Reading: Three Key Levels For Bitcoin: Top Analysts Caution Against Potential Drop Below $70,000 Exchanges Record Netflow Shift In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, pseudonymous market analyst The Enigma Trader explains that the Bitcoin market has seen an apparent temporary shift from its accumulation phase in December last year. The relevant indicator here is the Bitcoin: Exchange Netflow (Total) – All Exchanges metric, which tracks the net amount of BTC entering or leaving all centralized exchanges. Typically, a negative reading from the metric reflects reduced inflows of BTC into exchanges, indicating that less BTC is being transferred to exchanges to be sold or “exchanged,” and that more is being withdrawn. On the other hand, a positive reading indicates that more Bitcoin is being sent out to be sold, or to be converted into other tokens, than are being withdrawn. The Enigma Trader points out that from December last year, the netflows metric has seen a swift shift from deep negative values of –11,500 BTC to +1,100 BTC. In essence, about 1,100 BTC are sitting in exchanges, awaiting their fate. Usually, positive inflows across exchanges serve as a classic sign of imminent bearish pressure. However, the present scenario may not be so ominous. The Enigma Trader highlights that, compared to December Outflows, the inflow volume actually reads low. Instead of outright panic selling, it is more plausible that the retracement from $94,000 is only due to mild risk reduction near a key psychological level among Bitcoin’s market participants. Basically, traders who must have accumulated BTC during its dip in December are likely taking partials, or actively repositioning as the price nears $94,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Long-Term Cost Basis Holds Firm: Structural Floor Forms Near $2.8K Why The $90k Support Stands As A Crucial Price Level Considering that the BTC price fell around the same time when the netflows flipped positive, there still is a psychological battle to be won among investors. In the scenario where netflows gain towards the positive side, there could be a significant injection of bearish pressure into the market, which would in turn push prices further south. If this happens, the $90,000 support serves as a telltale sign as to whether the short-term bias has shifted to favour the downside, or if it still continues to the bullish side of the market. If price breaks beneath $90,000, alongside growing exchange inflows, it would immediately become apparent that the predominant sentiment is bearish. On the other hand, if the price prevails above $90,000, with exchange inflows unchanging, it would suggest that the broader bullish structure is still on. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $90,463, with CoinMarketCap data reflecting no significant movement  in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview

Crypto expert Plan C has alluded to the business cycle to explain why the Bitcoin top isn’t in despite the flagship crypto’s run to $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, having lost most of its gains from the start of the year.  Why The Bitcoin Top Isn’t In Yet Based On The Business Cycle In an X post, Plan C suggested that it doesn’t make sense to call the Bitcoin top when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the bull market peak hasn’t occurred.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Plan C was reacting to an X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also indicated that the Bitcoin top wasn’t yet in. The analyst noted that the ISM PMI was still 47.9, below 50. Based on this, Sminston remarked that the spring was still coiling, with his accompanying chart showing that the BTC price records a parabolic rally once the ISM PMI breaks above 50.  The chart also showed that the Bitcoin price could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could then mark the bull market peak for BTC and the broader crypto market as Plan C suggested. In the meantime, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, with other macro data painting a mixed picture for the flagship crypto. The latest U.S. jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish for the crypto market.  BTC Needs To Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery According to a Glassnode report, the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery would be a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode claims this would signal renewed confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward more constructive trend dynamics.  Related Reading: Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns Glassnode further noted that as attention turns to whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the broader structure is starting to resemble earlier transitional failures. This is similar to the Q1 2022 period, with BTC’s prolonged inability to recover above this level materially increasing the risk of a deeper bearish extension.  The on-chain analytics platform added that if the BTC price remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to erode. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover said to have occurred between 2021 and 2022, before the BTC price topped.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain data show a significant amount of Shiba Inu still held on exchanges, putting the SHIB price at risk of a decline due to sell-offs. This comes amid a positive increase in net flows, indicating that more coins are flowing into exchanges, likely to offload them.  SHIB Price At Risk With 82 Trillion Shiba Inu On Exchanges CryptoQuant data shows that the Shiba Inu exchange reserve is at 82 trillion coins. This indicates higher selling pressure, especially as the value has risen from around 81 trillion at the start of the year. Amid this development, the SHIB price has trimmed some of its year-to-date gains, with the meme coin dropping from a high above $0.000009 just as the exchange reserve rose.  Related Reading: Here’s Why The Shiba Inu Price Jumped Over 13% Another bearish indicator for Shiba Inu at the moment is the exchange netflow. Further data from CryptoQuant show that the exchange netflow has turned positive, indicating that more coins are being deposited into exchanges than removed. As such, the meme coin is likely currently facing more selling pressure than buying pressure, putting the SHIB price at risk of a decline.  Notably, the Shiba Inu exchange netflow turned positive just as the SHIB price reached its yearly high above $$0.000009. The recent bearish sentiment in the broader crypto market has likely contributed to these sell-offs for SHIB, with the Bitcoin price dropping back to $90,000 after rising above $94,000 at the start of the year.  Activity in the Shiba Inu derivatives market also paints a bearish picture for the SHIB price. CoinGlass data shows that trading volume has dropped by just over 5%, to $203 million. SHIB’s open interest is also down over 7%, dropping to $108 million. However, a positive is that most traders are still bullish on the meme coin, with the long/short ratio above 1.  An Increase In SHIB Whale Transactions A positive for the SHIB price is that whales still appear to be bullish on the meme coin. On-chain analytics platform Santiment recently pointed out a 111% spike in Shiba Inu’s whale transactions. Thanks to this development, SHIB ranks among the tokens with a market cap of at least $500 that have seen an increase in whale transactions above $100,000.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu End Of Year Predictions Remain Bearish, High Volatility Expected Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data show that the number of daily Shiba Inu active addresses has climbed since the start of the year and has remained above the 3,000 threshold. This is a positive as it indicates that attention is now returning to the SHIB ecosystem, which could positively impact the SHIB price once the crypto market rebounds again.  At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000008752, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Sketchfab, chart from Tradingview.com

Amid the cheers of the new year, Ethereum achieved a decisive breakout above the long-standing price resistance around $3,000. According to market analyst Amr Taha, this price gain has been accompanied by significant changes in the derivatives market, which suggest an aggressive shift in investors’ positioning. Related Reading: 2026 Crypto Market Prediction: Will Prices Soar Or Face Continued Declines? Ethereum Traders Flood Market With Long Positions To Usher In 2026 In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, Amr Taha shares an in-depth analysis of the Binance derivatives market following ETH’s recent surge in the first days of 2026. Notably, the market expert reports an impulsive rise in ETH open interest on the world’s largest exchange, in what they described as “one of the strongest single-day increases seen recently. As the spot price climbed above $3,100, data from CryptoQuant shows that ETH open interest rose from approximately $6.2 billion to around $7.1 billion, representing a 12% increase in the last day. Taha highlights the importance of the coincidence, stating a rise in open interest amid price appreciation suggested that traders were opening fresh positions, rather than the move being driven solely by short covering.   Interestingly, more data showed the ETH Cumulative Volume Delta – which measures the net difference between buying and selling volume over time – also rose alongside open interest, implying several positive developments. One of which is that long positions comprised the majority of the newly opened positions in the market, citing a heavy bullish sentiment around Ethereum.  In addition, ETH buyers demonstrated heightened urgency by favoring market orders over passive limit bids, indicating aggressive taker-side demand, implying a strong market conviction that preferred to engage the market immediately rather than wait for lower prices. Related Reading: Popular Crypto Founder Dumps Millions In Ethereum, Here’s What He’s Buying A Potential Bull Trap?  In analyzing the liquidation heatmap for the ETH derivative market, Amr Taha unveiled other critical price developments. Notably, ETH’s recent surge was partly driven by a short-squeeze effect around the $3,100 price level. Notably, when the altcoin touched this level, over-leveraged short traders had to defend their positions, effectively creating a market demand that translated into a sudden price gain.  While the recent price increase and open interest boost represent positive moments for the market, Taha warns that forced liquidation often results in temporary resistance zones on the lower timeframe, especially when accompanied by rising funding rates. The analyst also explains that Ethereum’s price move appears leverage-driven and highly sentimental rather than structural, suggesting equal room for both opportunity and risk. At press time, the prominent altcoin trades at $3,087, representing a 2.51% gain in the last day. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

XRP’s open interest has reportedly crashed to lows not seen since last year, when the altcoin surged by around 600%. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that this development could be bullish for XRP as it looks to rebound to new highs.  XRP’s Open Interest Drops To Lowest Level Since 2024 In a blog post, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain revealed that XRP’s open interest on Binance has fallen to its lowest level since 2024. The analyst noted that analysis of XRP Ledger data on the crypto exchange shows a clear rebalancing in the derivatives market, with open interest falling to almost $453 million, the lowest level since the end of last year.  Related Reading: Why You Should Pay Attention To XRP’s Exchange Netflows This Month Arab Chain noted that this development reflects a fundamental shift in trader behavior and confirms a significant decrease in leverage usage compared to previous periods. Notably, the XRP price looks to have been fueled by leverage in the early parts of this year. The analyst noted that open interest in XRP futures contracts exceeded $1 billion on several occasions, which coincided with strong price surges.  The XRP open interest also rose again in mid-2025 to levels similar to those recorded in the early months of the year, sparking significant volatility for XRP. However, Arab Chain noted that the current landscape is “markedly different.” Open interest has declined gradually and then sharply, indicating a significant exit by short-term speculators.  Meanwhile, the analyst explained that the decrease in XRP open interest carries dual implications. The first is that the decline in risk appetite and weakening momentum in the derivatives market explain the volatile price behavior in the absence of strong, liquidity-driven breakouts.  The second is that the contraction represents a healthy structural development, as it reduces the risk of forced liquidations and mitigates the abnormal pressures associated with excessive leverage. Arab Chain noted that periods of low open interest often represent transitional phases, during which the market shifts froma highly speculative environment to a calmer one that relies heavily on genuine spot demand.  XRP May Be Preparing For Another Significant Rally Crypto analysts have suggested that XRP may be preparing for another significant rally, although it remains to be seen if it could rally 600% like last year. In an X post, crypto analyst Niels stated that the altcoin is forming a higher low around this level. He noted that this is a similar structure that happened in April this year, before a new all-time high (ATH). The analyst added that a push above $2 could put the bulls in control.  Related Reading: XRP Stochastic RSI Just Touched 0.0 For The Second Time In History Crypto analyst Chart Nerd predicted that XRP could reach a new ATH on its next leg to the upside. This came as he noted that the altcoin was in the middle of an ABC reset. His accompanying chart showed that XRP could reach as high as $4.5 on this impulsive move to the upside, which is expected to happen in the first half of next year.  At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.84, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The ongoing Bitcoin price play out leading into a bear market is now one of the most pressing questions in the crypto industry. Right now, Bitcoin is trading between $87,700 and $88,000, which is a 30% drop from the all-time high it reached in October 2025.  Price action alone often leaves room for debate, but on-chain data is beginning to offer clearer guidance. Notably, analysis from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting in a way that aligns more closely with early-stage bear market conditions. BCMI Drops Below Equilibrium The important bear market signal is from Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which is a composite indicator that blends price behavior with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a definitive cycle top. At the time, the assumption was that Bitcoin was consolidating after an extended rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow However, that view has weakened with the deterioration of market conditions. Particularly, Bitcoin’s price action has declined materially since late October, and the BCMI has fallen in tandem with the price. This joint decline suggests the market has reset not only through time but also through valuation and participation.  As shown on the chart below, the BCMI has now slipped below its equilibrium zone, and this is a development that is known to coincide with transitions into bearish phases, where rallies tend to be capped, and downside risks increase. A closer look at prior Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms formed only after BCMI compressed into the 0.25 to 0.35 range. Those levels reflected deep sentiment compression, washed-out positioning, and a structural reset of the market. At current readings, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index is less than 0.4. This reading is below equilibrium but still well above a bottom zone. This opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback. According to the analyst, a more durable bottom may only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI revisits 2019-2023 levels. Weak Sentiment Adds To Bear Market Evidence Market sentiment is also supporting the idea that Bitcoin is moving deeper into a bearish phase. Optimism has been really scarce in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable floor. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently posting a reading of 28, which places sentiment firmly in the Fear zone. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About This poor sentiment backdrop has been affirmed by industry commentary. For instance, Changpeng Zhao recently noted that many investors only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at all-time highs. In practice, those early accumulations happened during periods like the present one, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt dominate market psychology. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has revealed why the XRP price keeps crashing, recently dropping below the psychological $2 level. The platform noted that the XRP ETF approval has failed to stop the selling pressure but instead looks to have escalated it.  Why The XRP Price Is Crashing Despite ETF Success In a CryptoQuant report, analyst PelinayPA revealed that the XRP price is facing significant selling pressure from whales holding between $100,000 and 1m XRP and those holding above 1m. These XRP whales are said to account for the majority of inflows into the crypto exchange Binance.  Related Reading: Peter Brandt Highlights Bearish XRP Price Chart, ‘You Need To Deal With It’ These transfers indicate that these whales are typically looking to offload these coins, which is putting selling pressure on the XRP price. PelinayPA noted that after each major inflow spike on the chart, the XRP price forms a lower high and lower low structure, suggesting that supply is overwhelming demand at the moment.  The CryptoQuant report noted that this happens because there is no strong new spot buyer in the market. The continuous increase in available supply is also said to keep pushing the XRP lower, even though the whales are not aggressively dumping. Meanwhile, PelinayPA highlighted key price levels to watch out for as the price continues to crash.  The analyst stated that, based on the inflow intensity and price reactions, the first major support zone stands between $1.82 and $1.87. She noted that this range marked where the price briefly stabilized and where small buyers appeared. However, XRP still risks crashing to the $1.50 and $1.66 range if the large outflows continue. The chart does not indicate that the altcoin could rally anytime soon with this selling pressure.  Whales Took Advantage Of The ETF Narrative The CryptoQuant report stated that, in theory, the XRP ETF process was expected to create institutional demand and push the price higher through spot buying. However, that hasn’t been the case, as there have instead been high-volume XRP inflows to Binance. PelinayPA explained that whales were the first to act as ETF approval expectations increased.  Related Reading: XRP Hasn’t Entered A Bear Market Yet; Analyst Shares Why The analyst further revealed that XRP accumulated in advance for the ETF narrative was transferred to exchanges and used as sell-side liquidity. Basically, whales sold the ETF approval story to retail investors. As a result, the XRP price faces significant selling pressure every time it approaches the $1.95 level.  PelinayPA reiterated that expecting a bullish move before exchange inflows decline would be an unrealistic assumption. However, it is worth noting that the XRP ETFs have been successful so far, accumulating over $1 billion in net assets in just over a month since their launch.  At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.90, up almost 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com