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Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $88,000 level, offering a brief sense of stability after weeks of choppy price action. However, the broader picture remains fragile. Since early December, BTC has repeatedly failed to push above the $90,000 threshold, a level that continues to cap upside attempts and reinforce market hesitation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 Adding to the cautious outlook, CryptoZeno, a CryptoQuant analyst, points to miner behavior as a growing short-term risk factor. According to his analysis, Bitcoin miner outflows are signaling rising sell-side pressure, a dynamic that has historically mattered during periods of weak momentum. The data shows a clear relationship between miner activity and short-term price movements. Sharp increases in total miner outflows—especially when large volumes of BTC are sent to exchanges—have frequently coincided with local price pullbacks rather than sustained rallies. Miners are often considered informed market participants, typically operating with relatively low cost bases. When their distribution activity increases, it can introduce additional supply at moments when spot demand is already struggling to absorb selling pressure. While miner outflows alone do not define a broader market top, they can amplify short-term weakness, particularly in range-bound conditions like the one Bitcoin is currently facing. Miner Outflows Reinforce Short-Term Downside Risks The report explains that recent spikes in Bitcoin miner outflows have repeatedly been followed by immediate or near-term price weakness, reinforcing the link between miner behavior and short-term market dynamics. These episodes suggest that miners—often considered informed participants with relatively low production cost bases—are actively distributing supply during periods of strength or heightened uncertainty. While a miner selling on its own does not signal a macro market top, it frequently adds incremental supply at sensitive moments, increasing short-term pressure when liquidity is thin, or spot demand is unable to absorb new inflows. CryptoZeno adds that elevated miner outflows typically reflect a combination of factors. These include profit realization after rallies, the need to cover operational expenses, or a defensive response to weakening price structure. From an on-chain perspective, this behavior is not unusual during corrective or range-bound phases. However, when miner transfers to exchanges cluster within a short time window, their impact becomes more pronounced. Concentrated outflows can materially increase sell-side pressure on exchanges, raising the probability of corrective price moves rather than sustained upside continuation. At the macro level, miner distribution becomes especially influential when paired with broader headwinds. Neutral or declining risk appetite, tighter liquidity conditions, or cooling derivatives sentiment all reduce the market’s capacity to absorb additional supply. In such environments, miner-driven selling is less likely to be smoothly digested and can instead amplify downside volatility, keeping Bitcoin vulnerable in the near term. Related Reading: XRP Slides To $1.80 While Binance Reserves Continue To Decline Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight consolidation range after failing to reclaim the $90,000 level, as shown on the daily chart. Following the sharp breakdown in November, price found support in the $85,000–$87,000 zone, where selling pressure began to ease and volatility compressed. Since then, BTC has been moving sideways, signaling indecision rather than a decisive trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains capped below its declining short-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average continues to slope downward and acts as dynamic resistance. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit well above the current price, reinforcing a broader bearish structure. As long as BTC trades below these levels, upside attempts are likely to be sold into rather than sustained. Related Reading: XRP Selling Pressure Returns: Investors Shift From Holding to Distribution After the heavy sell-off in November, trading volume has gradually declined. This suggests that aggressive sellers have stepped back, but new demand has not yet entered with conviction. This typically characterizes a stabilization phase rather than the start of a new impulsive move. Structurally, Bitcoin is forming a base, but confirmation remains absent. A daily close above $90,000 could signal a meaningful shift in momentum. And would open the door for a recovery toward higher resistance zones. Conversely, a loss of the $85,000 support area could expose BTC to another leg lower. For now, the chart reflects balance, hesitation, and a market waiting for a catalyst. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The industry is realizing that Bitcoin was deliberately designed to prioritize simple, deterministic validation over complex on-chain execution. This design choice minimizes resource requirements, preserves decentralization, and reduces systemic risk even if it means pushing complex logic, programmability, and heavy computation to higher layers or external systems. How Bitcoin Avoids Complex State Transitions The fundamental limitation of Bitcoin is its inability to run heavy verification logic at a low cost, a core constraint that every BitVM-based bridge must navigate. According to the GOAT Network post on X, to address these issues, they are introducing a BitVM2 design that will ensure disputes are affordable enough to be executed under real fee conditions. The security mechanism is addressed through optimistic verification using garbled circuits (GC). Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags This operator, which is set to launch soon, publishes the garbled-circuit artifacts off-chain, while committing only the relevant labels on-chain. If the computation is correct, no on-chain action will be required. Meanwhile, if something is wrong, a challenger does not need to replay an expensive computation on-chain.  Instead, they produce a minimal fraud-proof to reveal the output “0” label that contradicts the operator’s claimed result. At that point, the on-chain step is about demonstrating a contradiction, which will reduce the cost of disputes and change the economics of security.  A practical detail in BitVM designs is that the garbled circuit size matters, and pairing heavy verification can cause bloated circuits. To avoid this, BitVM2 integrates a designated-verifier SNARK, which reduces verifier complexity so that the garbled circuits remain within realistic size limits. For end users, the implication is that the cheaper, more reliable depute paths make it harder for the bridge to stall when the fees spike.  Public Companies Are Becoming Bitcoin’s Strongest Buyers While several projects are being introduced to improve the efficiency of Bitcoin, seasoned crypto expert and the founder of the Wealth Mastery Newspaper, Lark Davis, has revealed that many public companies are aggressively accumulating BTC. Currently, public companies collectively hold 1.09 million BTC, representing 5.1% of the total BTC supply, which is a new all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 However, the latest major aggressive purchases have come from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. Strategy just announced another 1,200 BTC purchase, pushing its total holdings to 672,000 BTC. Asia-based firm Metaplanet also bought an additional 4,200 BTC in December, bringing its total holdings to 35,000 BTC. Davis pointed out that other recent purchases have come from Cango Inc., Bitdeer Technologies, and Anap Holdings. While retail investors are demonstrating weakening sentiment, public companies or institutional investors continue to stack regardless of the ongoing market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of hesitation after a strong upward move, positioning the market at a critical decision phase. A crypto analyst has shared details on whether the current pause reflects healthy consolidation or a shift in momentum that could influence the broader crypto market.  A recent analysis by crypto analyst Tony Severino shows that Bitcoin is entering a critical decision phase, with price action indicating a maturing trend. His chart highlights a robust upward structure that has begun to slow, signaling a shift in market behavior rather than an immediate price reversal. Notably, this moment is significant not just for Bitcoin but for the broader crypto market, which often follows its lead.  Crypto Market Next Move As Bitcoin Hits Key Phase Severino’s chart illustrates a steady climb in Bitcoin’s price, marked by higher highs and measured pullbacks, indicating that buyers have largely been in control. However, recent candles show slower momentum and smaller bodies, suggesting that BTC’s bullish strength is starting to waver. The analyst has stated that the market is currently testing whether buyers still have the strength to push prices to upper levels or if Bitcoin’s upward move has run its course. Related Reading: Economist Blasts Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet, Despite $8 Billion Profits, Here’s Why Another key feature of the chart is the Doji candle forming near the top of the trend. Severino notes that this candle should not be interpreted as a sell signal, but rather an acknowledgement by the market that Bitcoin’s upside certainty has ended. The candle is also viewed as an early sign of hesitation, with multiple market outcomes possible.  Severino explained that the market could enter a period of digestion, where Bitcoin’s price consolidates while maintaining a larger uptrend. Alternatively, the pause could signal distribution, with stronger hands beginning to transfer risk as BTC’s momentum fades.  Another possibility is a final push higher driven by renewed conviction and late-cycle momentum. In that scenario, Bitcoin could break out of its current slowdown and extend gains before any new correction. Notably, Severino’s chart analysis does not confirm which path the market could ultimately take, only that the next sequence is expected to be decisive.  Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Decline To $35,000 In a separate post, crypto market expert Lofty warned that Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, potentially triggering a deeper price crash. He pointed out striking similarities between the current BTC cycle and the 2021 bull run, highlighting a Double Top pattern that has preceded a significant price drop in the past cycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Crypto Trader Explains What Happens Next According to Lofty, if Bitcoin follows its historical four-year trend, its price could collapse to $35,000 within the next two weeks. Notably, the cryptocurrency has already completed its Double Top formation and is showing early signs of a prolonged downtrend. If the price declines to $35,000, it would represent a more than 60% drop from its current value of over $88,500. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is stuck in a tight consolidation after its sharp rejection from the $100,000 region, with price compressing into a narrow range that reflects growing market tension. As momentum builds beneath the surface, attention is focused on a decisive breakout or breakdown that could define Bitcoin’s next major move. Bitcoin Trapped In Post-Breakdown Compression According to analyst CyrilXBT, Bitcoin remains mired in a period of intense price compression following its significant breakdown from the $100,000 threshold. This cooling-off phase reflects the market’s attempt to stabilize after being rejected at a historic milestone, resulting in a loss of immediate upward momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovering In A Descending Range, But Alts Are Quietly Gaining Momentum The current technical structure is defined by a series of lower highs, which are effectively squeezing the price into an increasingly narrow corridor. This tightening action is concentrated around the $88,000 to $90,000 range. It creates a high-pressure environment where the asset is searching for its next definitive directional catalyst. CyrilXBT characterizes this current behavior as “classic post-distribution chop,” a phase typically followed by a period where large holders exit positions, leading to erratic sideways movement. It also serves as a necessary reset before a new trend can be established. Looking forward, the market is approaching a period of increased volatility that could resolve in two ways. Bitcoin will either stage a bullish breakout through the descending trendline or undergo a final “flush” to the downside, wiping out over-leveraged long positions. Ultimately, this consolidation serves as a strategic battleground to determine which market participants will be shaken out before the next major move. Price Compression Signals A Bigger Move Ahead In a market assessment, Daan Crypto Trades observed that despite the ongoing sideways movement, Bitcoin’s underlying market health remains stable. Specifically, both the BTC funding rates and the spot premium have held their ground, suggesting that the current chop hasn’t yet led to the massive de-leveraging or sentiment shifts often seen during volatile corrections. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow As Bitcoin remains compressed within this range, a major volatility expansion is highly likely. Based on current trends, a decisive move is expected to materialize within the next one to two weeks as the market reaches a breaking point in its consolidation. The primary recommendation during this uncertain phase is to exercise patience and wait for a confirmed breakout rather than attempting to trade every minor fluctuation. By avoiding the temptation to over-leverage in the middle of this range, traders can protect their capital and wait for clear confirmation of the next trend. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has witnessed a sharp decline into the negative zone recently, with its value now sitting at one of the lowest in the last 18 months. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Plunged In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. This indicator keeps track of the difference between the BTCUSD price on Coinbase and BTCUSDT price on Binance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Optimism Returns To End 2025—What Usually Follows? Coinbase is mainly used by traders in the US, especially the large institutional entities, while Binance hosts a global traffic. As such, the Coinbase Premium Gap reflects the difference in behavior between American and offshore whales. When the value of the metric is greater than zero, it means the asset is trading at a higher value on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend implies users of the former are applying a higher amount of buying pressure (or lower amount of selling pressure) as compared to the userbase of the latter. On the other hand, the indicator being negative suggests Binance may be observing a higher amount of accumulation as the cryptocurrency is going for a higher price on the platform. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the last year and a half: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has fallen into the negative territory recently, implying the American investors have shifted their behavior to one of higher selling pressure/lower buying pressure. In other words, demand from US traders has gone down. Currently, the indicator is sitting at a value of -$122, which means the cryptocurrency’s price is trading at a discount of $122 on Coinbase relative to Binance. The last time that the metric fell to such a low level was during the price crash in November. In recent times, US institutional entities have played an impactful role in the market, so the Coinbase Premium Gap, which acts a proxy of their behavior, has tended to have some correlation with the asset’s spot price. This pattern was once again seen in November, when a drawdown occurred in the cryptocurrency alongside a plunge into the red zone for the metric. So far, Bitcoin has managed to be relatively stable even with the low demand from the American whales, but it only remains to be seen how long that will continue, given the scale of the discount on Coinbase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Equilibrium: Active Market Participants Just Breaking Even The current value of the Coinbase Premium Gap is one of the lowest in the last 18 months, being seen on only five occasions in this window. BTC Price Bitcoin has been following an overall sideways trajectory recently as its price is still floating around $88,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a slight recovery, edging back above the $89,000 mark as it attempts to break through the $90,000 resistance level. Nonetheless, concerns loom over further downward moves, raising worries about the risks this trend poses to firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Analysts at the Bull Theory have posed a critical question regarding the potential financial vulnerabilities of Michael Saylor’s Strategy should Bitcoin drop to the critical $74,000 price threshold.  This narrative suggests that a drop to this key price point could place Strategy in financial jeopardy or force the company to sell its Bitcoin assets. However, the analysts assert that these dire predictions do not align with the real financial situation of the company. Debunking Insolvency Fears Currently, Strategy boasts a major 672,497 BTC stockpile valued at approximately $58.7 billion on its balance sheet. In contrast, its total debt stands at about $8.24 billion.  The Analysts emphasize that even if Bitcoin were to decline to $74,000, the total value of its Bitcoin holdings would still be around $49.76 billion—well above its liabilities. Thus, they assert that there is no feasible scenario where a decline from $87,000 to $74,000 would lead to insolvency. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Influx: Strategy Grabs 1,200 BTC, Bitmine Immersion Ups ETH by 44,000 A crucial point of distinction is that Strategy does not operate like a hedge fund dealing with margin loans; it has no collateral-backed Bitcoin debt, which means there are no liquidations triggered by price drops.  As the analysts explain, the concerns surrounding forced selling stem from applying trading logic to a corporate balance sheet. The Bitcoin that Strategy holds is neither pledged as collateral nor subjected to margin calls.  Instead, the firm’s borrowings come from unsecured convertible notes, thus lenders do not have the right to demand Bitcoin simply due to falling prices. External Pressures Impacting Strategy  Liquidity remains another concern for some investors who fear that Strategy might be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin to manage its obligations. However, the company has set aside a reserve of $2.188 billion in USD, enough to cover approximately 32 months of its dividend payments, which range between $750 million and $800 million annually.  So, what accounts for the recent decline in Strategy’s stock price if the company’s fundamentals are sound? The analysts highlighted that since October, several external factors have generated fear around Strategy, not due to concerns about insolvency but because of shifting market conditions and institutional positioning. Beginning on October 10, the MSCI index proposed new regulations that could potentially remove companies with over 50% of their assets in Bitcoin from their indexes. This created apprehension about forced index selling, even though a final decision is yet to be made on January 15, 2026.  Additionally, analysts at JPMorgan raised margin requirements for trading Strategy’s stock from 50% to 95%, leading some investors to reduce their exposure, which in turn resulted in selling pressure. Dilution Dangers But while Strategy’s balance sheet appears robust, certain risks merit vigilance. One significant risk highlighted by Bull Theory analysts is dilution. The company has frequently relied on issuing new shares to enhance its Bitcoin holdings.  Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year While many investors view this strategy positively, concerns arise that continuous share issuance during a downtrend may heighten dilution, ultimately weakening existing shareholder value. Additionally, there are concerns that excessive dilution could drive Strategy’s net asset value (NAV) ratio below 1, an important threshold that would limit the company’s ability to raise new capital through share issuance.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $89,200, having recorded slight gains of 1.5% over the previous 24 hours. Strategy’s stock (MSTR) is trading at $157 per share, mirroring BTC’s surge with gains of 1.25% in the same time frame.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with an unusual setup. Despite printing a new all-time high in October, the price has since pulled back enough to put the annual performance at risk of closing negative. That difference puts into context how the current cycle should be interpreted and what it means for Bitcoin’s price outlook. According to one analyst, the answer is less dramatic than it may appear at first glance, and Bitcoin might be about to enter into a bear market. A Red Close Would Identify A Bear Market, Not A Broken Cycle Bitcoin’s long-term price action has often followed a familiar rhythm, with three consecutive green yearly candles eventually giving way to a red close. This sequence has appeared multiple times since 2011, leading many traders to expect the same structure to repeat in the current cycle. This time, however, the pattern has shifted. Although both 2023 and 2024 closed in the green, 2025 is on track to finish negative, interrupting the usual progression. Related Reading: Why The Current XRP Valuation Doesn’t Make Sense Crypto analyst CryptoBullet noted that a red close for Bitcoin in 2025 would simply confirm that the cycle has transitioned into a bear phase, not that the four-year cycle is broken. In his view, the color of the yearly candle is often misunderstood. What matters most is where Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows, not whether a specific post-halving year finishes green or red. He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the yearly candle is likely to form a doji candlestick. In technical analysis, doji candles reflect indecision after strong upside expansion and often lead to trend reversals.  In this context, such a close would correspond with Bitcoin having already completed its cycle top earlier in October, when it reached a new peak of $126,080. In previous cycles, once a new high is set in the post-halving year, Bitcoin’s price action transitions into a prolonged corrective phase regardless of how that year ultimately closes. Bitcoin Chart Image From X. Source: @CryptoBullet1 What To Expect For Bitcoin In 2026 Responding to comments on his technical analysis on X, Crypto analyst CryptoBullet reiterated that he is sticking with an analysis he first shared on December 2, which also proposes that Bitcoin’s cycle top is already in. Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,396 and has since fallen well below its October peak, a structure he says closely resembles the post-top consolidation seen in 2019. Related Reading: $130 Million XRP Fumble: Analyst Reveals What Went Wrong In that earlier cycle, Bitcoin spent months trading roughly 30% below its high while altcoins, measured through the OTHERS/BTC chart, formed a cycle bottom and began to recover. CryptoBullet believes the same dynamic is unfolding now, but on a larger scale, with altcoins having underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years.  Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X Based on that setup, he expects a dead cat bounce in early 2026, accompanied by a short-lived rotation into altcoins, before a much deeper correction takes hold across Bitcoin as the bear market progresses. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price trimmed all gains and dived below $88,000. BTC is now recovering losses from the $86,700 support but faces many hurdles. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $88,000 zone. The price is trading above $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a declining channel with resistance at $87,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $87,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Remains Bid Near Support Bitcoin price attempted a fresh increase above $88,500 but failed. BTC trimmed all gains and dived below $88,000. However, the bulls were active near the $86,700 zone. A low was formed at $86,700, and the price recently started a fresh increase. There was a clear move above the $88,000 resistance, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,298 swing high to the $86,700 low. Besides, there was a break above a declining channel with resistance at $87,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $87,500, it could attempt a fresh recovery wave. Immediate resistance is near the $88,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $88,900 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,298 swing high to the $86,700 low. The next resistance could be $89,500. A close above the $89,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $91,200 and $91,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $89,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $87,850 level. The first major support is near the $87,500 level. The next support is now near the $86,700 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $85,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $87,500, followed by $86,700. Major Resistance Levels – $88,500 and $89,000.

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 mark, reflecting a market that has failed to recover bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. Repeated attempts to reclaim higher levels have stalled, reinforcing growing skepticism among analysts who now openly discuss the risk of a broader bear market extending into 2026. Sentiment remains fragile, dominated by caution and reduced risk appetite, as traders wait for clearer confirmation of the next directional move. Related Reading: XRP Selling Pressure Returns: Investors Shift From Holding to Distribution Still, not everyone is convinced the bullish cycle is over. Some investors argue that Bitcoin is entering a transitional phase rather than a full trend reversal. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, the current setup in Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” metric offers important context. Adler highlights that Supply in Profit has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.5 million BTC following the correction from all-time highs. This decline pushed the short-term 30-day moving average well below the 90-day average, creating a gap of around 1.75 million BTC. While a similar configuration appeared in 2022 before an extended bearish period, Adler notes a key difference this time: the 365-day moving average remains historically elevated. Importantly, the 30-day average appears to have formed a local bottom in mid-December and is beginning to stabilize. Adler argues that if Bitcoin can hold current price levels or higher, this stabilization could mark the early groundwork for a renewed bullish phase later in 2026. Supply in Profit Signals a Critical Inflection Window Axel Adler also shared a forward-looking forecast chart tracking the convergence between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric, offering a potential roadmap for the next structural shift. The model extrapolates current rates of change to estimate when a bullish configuration—defined by SMA 30 crossing above SMA 90—could emerge. According to Adler’s analysis, the gap between these two moving averages is currently narrowing at a pace of roughly 28,000 BTC per day. Importantly, this convergence is not being driven by a sharp recovery in Supply in Profit, but by a mechanical decline in the SMA 90. As peak October values, when Supply in Profit reached 19–20 million BTC, roll out of the 90-day calculation window, downward pressure on the longer average creates a temporary “tailwind” for convergence. This effect is expected to persist through late January. If current conditions hold, Adler projects a potential bullish cross forming between late February and early March. However, the forecast remains highly price-sensitive. Supply elasticity to price is estimated at 1.3x, meaning a 10% price decline could trigger a 13% drop in Supply in Profit. The $70,000 level is critical according to the forecast. Below it, SMA 30 would likely fall faster than SMA 90, invalidating the convergence thesis and reopening a 2022-style prolonged recovery scenario. Related Reading: Chainlink Shows Strong Accumulation Signal: LINK Exchange Liquidity Dries Up Bitcoin Price Struggles Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 threshold, reflecting a market that remains structurally weak despite short-term stabilization. The chart shows BTC consolidating after a sharp breakdown from the $100,000–$105,000 region, a move that decisively flipped prior support into resistance. This rejection marked a clear loss of bullish control and initiated a deeper corrective phase. Price now compresses below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages.. This configuration reinforces the prevailing bearish trend and suggests that upside attempts are likely to face supply pressure. The 200-day moving average, currently well above spot price, highlights how far BTC has drifted from its longer-term trend equilibrium. Related Reading: Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level Momentum has cooled notably since the November sell-off. While selling intensity has eased, the absence of strong bullish volume indicates that buyers remain cautious. The recent price action resembles a consolidation range rather than a reversal, with BTC oscillating between roughly $85,000 and $90,000. This behavior often reflects indecision rather than accumulation. For now, $90,000 remains the critical level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment meaningfully. Failure to do so keeps downside risks in play, with $85,000 acting as near-term support. Until price regains key moving averages, the broader structure favors continued range-bound or corrective price action. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows crowd sentiment on social media has tilted toward optimism again for Bitcoin. Here’s what history suggests could happen next. Bitcoin Social Volume Suggests Rise Of Greed In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media sentiment toward Bitcoin is looking right now. The indicator of relevance here is the “Social Volume,” measuring the total amount of posts/messages/threads on the major social media platforms that are making unique mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Bitcoin Equilibrium: Active Market Participants Just Breaking Even For judging the degree of sentiment around BTC that’s present on social media, Santiment has filtered the indicator for both Bitcoin-related terms and sentiment-related ones. More specifically, the analytics firm has applied to the BTC Social Volume the terms “higher” and “above” to pinpoint bullish comments, and “lower” and “below” to gauge bearish sentiment. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the two types of Bitcoin Social Volume have changed over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume has just seen an uptick, although not a very significant one. Bullish comments have outpaced the bearish ones in this spike, suggesting that the retail crowd is getting optimistic about where BTC will head as New Year’s approaches. If history is anything to go by, though, this optimism may not actually be a positive sign for the cryptocurrency. Generally, BTC and digital asset markets tend to move in a direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. The analytics firm has noted that many short-term Bitcoin swings in the last three months have followed this pattern. From the chart, it’s visible that a spike in bearish calls has led to price bounces, while greed on social media has coincided with local tops. Considering this trend, it’s possible that the latest surge in positive social media comments surrounding Bitcoin could end up proving to be a bearish signal. Though that said, the intensity of the greedy sentiment hasn’t been too high so far. In some other news, cumulative Bitcoin returns have flattened out for all trading sessions recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. The trading sessions in the chart correspond to periods when users from a specific market are likely to be active. In the first half of December, Bitcoin’s gains were dominated by the US session, but recently, returns have flatlined for all three of the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Related Reading: XRP Exchange Inflows Spike To End 2025: Will Price Decline Deepen? This suggests that no trader demographic is diverging in behavior. “Market momentum is neutral across the board,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price Bitcoin has been stuck in a phase of consolidation recently as its price is still trading around $88,000. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are displaying sharply diverging fund flow trends, with XRP emerging as the most accumulated digital asset in the latest CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report. With Bitcoin and Ethereum jointly recorded nearly $500 million in outflows, the data illustrates a shift in investor positioning away from the market’s largest assets toward select alternatives amid ongoing volatility. XRP Inflows Highlight Selective Demand Contrasting sharply with the redemptions sweeping through Bitcoin and Ethereum products, XRP has continued to register major inflows. CoinShares data shows XRP-linked investment vehicles attracted $70.2 million in new capital last week, reflecting ongoing interest from investors in these nascent ETF categories. Since their mid-October US launches, XRP has accumulated about $1.07 billion in inflows, a remarkable trajectory given the prevailing outflow environment for larger assets.  Related Reading: XRP Price May Be Bearish Below $2, But On-Chain Data Tells A Different Story This bifurcation in fund flows underscores a selective repositioning among investors. While broad risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum grapple with selling pressure, XRP’s performance shows that certain niche products are still attracting interest even in a downtrend. This pattern may be likely due to different expectations about regulations, adoption, or the impact of newly launched ETF products aimed at specific investors. Bit-Heavy Outflows: Bitcoin And Ethereum Under Pressure Despite their dominant roles in the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum endured significant net outflows during the reporting week ended December 29, contributing the lion’s share of the overall outflow figure. According to CoinShares, Bitcoin-linked products recorded approximately $443 million in redemptions, representing nearly the totality of the weekly withdrawal from crypto investment vehicles. Ethereum-focused products also saw $59.5 million exit, adding to a broader pattern of institutional caution toward the largest digital assets. These negative flows have accumulated since the mid-October US ETF launches, with Bitcoin recording roughly $2.8 billion and Ethereum about $1.6 billion in outflows over this period. The concentration of redemptions in the United States, where $460 million left digital asset funds, highlights a prevailing aversion among domestic investors toward reallocating capital into BTC and ETH during periods of price volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Related Reading: Banks Could Start Holding XRP Due To This Simple Change The sustained outflows amid weak sentiment reflect broader investor behavior during market stress. When capital flees established assets, it often signals profit-taking, risk reduction, or shifts into alternative strategies or cash positions, all of which can exert downward price pressure and prolong short-term weakness. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this trend suggests that even their extensive adoption and liquidity have not insulated them from pullbacks in institutional demand. Overall, the latest fund flow data signals a clear rotation in investor attention. While Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to experience significant outflows, XRP is drawing capital, emphasizing a market environment where targeted assets are increasingly capturing the focus of both institutional and retail participants as 2026 approaches. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

BlackRock has transferred a significant amount of BTC to the crypto exchange Coinbase, sparking concerns about a sell-off. This comes as the Bitcoin price continues to struggle to break above $90,000 successfully.  Bitcoin Price At Risk as BlackRock Transfers BTC Arkham data shows that Blackrock deposited 2,201 BTC ($192.13 million) into Coinbase, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of further decline amid increasing selling pressure. The move followed the outflow recorded by BlackRock’s BTC ETF on December 26, with Bitcoin funds as a group seeing a net outflow of $275.88 million.  Related Reading: Bitcoin News: Here’s How Much Was Liquidated In The Crypto Market In 2025 These Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a seven-day outflow streak, which also prompted BlackRock to deposit 6,174.39 BTC last week, likely to offload these coins and redeem shares of its BTC fund. The Bitcoin price has struggled to break above $90,000 amid these outflows from the BTC funds.  Notably, the Bitcoin price had broken above $90,000 on December 28 but quickly lost those gains yesterday as BlackRock moved the coins to Coinbase. Crypto pundit Martini claimed that BlackRock wasn’t the only one putting significant selling pressure on the flagship crypto. He alleged that Binance, Wintermute, Coinbase, and Fidelity also sold a significant amount of BTC, collectively dumping $3.5 billion yesterday.  Crypto pundit Bull Theory claimed that there was a weekend manipulation as the Bitcoin price pumped $3,000 and broke $90,000, liquidating $103 million worth of shorts this Sunday. He then noted that on Monday morning, BTC dumped $2,700 and liquidated $40 million worth of longs, erasing its entire pump in the process. With the current price action, BTC is heading for a red yearly close, as it is currently down over 6% year-to-date (YTD).  BTC Could Bottom Out Soon Against Other Major Assets In an X post, crypto analyst Kevin Capital stated that most of the data continues to become more favorable for the Bitcoin price, putting in a bottom against the equity markets and gold in the coming weeks. He added that the data also points to the flagship crypto outperforming these assets. The analyst stated that this was based on just factual data and not emotions.   Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bear Market, And This Data Backs It Up The Bitcoin price had notably outperformed these major assets at the start of the year but has since fallen behind, following the October 10 crypto crash. Gold is up 66% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 17% since the start of the year. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also predicted that BTC could soon rally, noting that the long-term holders have stopped selling for the first time since July 2025.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,300, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

After setting a new all-time high back in early October, the Bitcoin price entered into an extended downtrend period, losing over $40,000 of its value to drop below $90,000. During this time, sentiment and market participation have understandably been negative, with investors pulling back from the cryptocurrency. However, with the year drawing to an end, a crypto analyst has explained what is expected for Bitcoin next, and why investors aren’t ready for what’s coming. Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Gearing Up For A Big Move Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Waterman took to X to outline the reasons why they believe that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a breakout. While many believe that the top is in, Waterman argues the opposite, using the trends from previous cycle tops to show why the Bitcoin price is yet to top. Related Reading: Can XRP Price Reach $10,000? Expert Says It’s Different Math, Different League For one, the analyst argues that pullbacks like these are part of each cycle, and the previous cycles were no different. But other than the pullback, there is also the gold and silver trend, with both having hit all-time highs in December 2025, while Bitcoin has continued to struggle. Waterman explained that in previous cycles, both gold and silver hit new all-time highs before the Bitcoin price followed later. As such, with both of these assets already hitting new peaks, the crypto analyst believes that leaving Bitcoin to buy gold and silver isn’t a smart choice. Additionally, one of the major markers of a Bitcoin cycle top has been the performance of the Coinbase app on the App Store. In past cycles, Coinbase had risen to number 1 before Bitcoin peaked. Meanwhile, it only reached Number 280 in October when BTC made its $126,000 all-time high. Thus, it suggests that this isn’t the top. Why This Is Not The Top Other factors are also mentioned as to why this is not the top for the Bitcoin price, one of which is the altcoin market performance. Altcoins have continued to struggle during this time, with major alts being down between 60% and 80% from their all-time highs and no sign of an altcoin season in sight. Related Reading: Investment Firm CEO Drops Utility Bomb On XRP, Is Community Hype A Detriment? The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also did not cross the 90 mark this cycle, suggesting that euphoria did not reach its peak, as well as the MVRV Z-Score remaining below 3, when the trend is for the Z-Score to reach above 6 before it tops. Given this, the crypto analyst suggests that a number of things will happen. Investors who exited the market back in early 2025 are expected to move back in. Then, those who left in 2024 will follow, and then the 2021-2022 investor cohort will return. Finally, new retail investors join the market, which will be the signal to exit the market. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price failed to clear $90,000 and trimmed all gains. BTC is now consolidating losses and might struggle to stay above $86,500. Bitcoin started a recovery wave but failed to surpass $90,000. The price is trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $87,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $86,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Sharply Bitcoin price attempted a fresh increase above $88,500 and started a recovery wave. BTC even climbed above the $89,000 barrier but struggled near $90,000. A high was formed at $90,298 before the bears appeared. There was a sharp downside reaction below $89,000. BTC trimmed all gains and even dived below $88,000. A low was formed at $86,700, and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,298 swing high to the $86,700 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $86,500, it could attempt a fresh recovery wave. Immediate resistance is near the $87,500 level. Besides, there is a declining channel forming with resistance at $87,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $88,000 level. The next resistance could be $88,500 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,298 swing high to the $86,700 low. A close above the $88,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $89,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $90,500 and $91,200. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $88,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $86,500 level. The first major support is near the $86,000 level. The next support is now near the $85,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $83,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $87,500, followed by $88,000. Major Resistance Levels – $86,500 and $86,000.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin price is currently floating around the cost basis of the Active Investors, suggesting this cohort is at break-even. Bitcoin Is Trading At The Active Investors Mean In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on where the major Bitcoin on-chain levels currently stand. There are four pricing models of interest here, the most basic of which is the Realized Price. The Realized Price basically keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor on the BTC network. The spot price trading above this line means that the holders as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit, while the reverse situation suggests the dominance of loss in the market. Related Reading: XRP Exchange Inflows Spike To End 2025: Will Price Decline Deepen? Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in this metric over the last few years. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin spot price crossed above the Realized Price back at the start of 2023, and since then, its value has remained above the indicator. At present, the Realized Price is sitting at $56,200, which means that the network as a whole is in a significant amount of profit at the current spot price. While the Realized Price does provide an overall view of the blockchain, it doesn’t tend to be too useful outside of bear markets as the asset rarely interacts with it. This is a consequence of the fact that it accounts for all tokens in circulation, even the ones that have become inaccessible due to lost wallet keys. Two other models in the chart, the True Market Mean and Active Realized Price, exist to solve this issue. These indicators only provide the cost basis of the active market participants. That is, the Bitcoin investors who have recently been involved in transaction activity. The first model, the True Market Mean, is situated at $81,100 right now. This is around where the cryptocurrency found its bottom when it crashed in November. Meanwhile, the Active Realized Price corresponds to $87,700, which is the level about which BTC has recently been consolidating. Related Reading: XRP Triangle Hints At Potential 10% Move—But In Which Direction? As Bitcoin is currently trading right at the Active Realize Price, the investors holding the economically active supply can be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment. While the active traders as a whole have a neutral profitability, the same isn’t true for a segment of them known as the short-term holders (STHs). Formally, the STHs are defined as the addresses who acquired their coins within the past 155 days. With the Bitcoin STH Realized Price equal to $99,900 at the moment, this cohort is in a state of net loss. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,700, down 2.6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a consolidated trading range between $86,000 and $90,000 after experiencing a 30% correction from its all-time high in October, market expectations for the cryptocurrency’s future remain optimistic.  Market analyst Dominic Basulto from The Motley Fool believes that despite the persistent challenges seen in the fourth quarter of the year, Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 by 2026, fueled by the newly established US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Is $150,000 Possible For Bitcoin?  Historical context supports Basulto’s prediction; Bitcoin’s performance over the years has shown significant recovery potential, with 2015 marking its worst bull market year at just a 36% gain. Significantly, in seven of its years, Bitcoin has achieved triple-digit percentage returns. The analyst suggests that 2026 may resemble 2019, a year when Bitcoin appreciated by 95% following the dismal performance in 2018, when it plummeted by 74%. Related Reading: XRP Supply Shock Incoming? Expert Reveals The Truth In 2019, several catalysts, such as heightened global economic uncertainty and a surge in institutional interest, propelled Bitcoin upwards—situations that appear similar to current conditions.  Institutional investors are increasingly adding BTC to their portfolios, driven by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Meanwhile, concerns over global tariffs and macroeconomic instability in the US continue to resonate among investors, setting the stage for potential bullish movement. However, Basulto emphasizes that Bitcoin can only reach the $150,000 milestone if it is perceived as a long-term store of value. If investors view it merely as another high-risk asset, they may choose to favor physical gold over digital gold, which has seen a record-breaking year.  The crux of his argument centers on one pivotal factor that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price: a notable increase in purchases by the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.  What Happens If Nations Stockpile BTC? Basulto claims that if the US government were to start buying substantial quantities of Bitcoin, it could trigger a global arms race among other countries keen to create their own strategic BTC reserves.  According to the analyst, such purchases from national reserves could dramatically inflate Bitcoin’s price, likely surpassing the impact of corporate treasury companies that have already amassed close to 5% of the world’s circulating BTC supply. Related Reading: Investment Firm CEO Drops Utility Bomb On XRP, Is Community Hype A Detriment? Although reaching the $150,000 mark may seem ambitious given Bitcoin’s recent performance, more aggressive predictions exist for 2026. For instance, JPMorgan Chase has forecasted a potential price of $170,000, while Wall Street strategist Tom Lee from Fundstrat has suggested that BTC might even hit $250,000 next year. While a variety of factors must align for BTC to reclaim its status as digital gold, the possibility of elevated prices hinges on strategic actions by both the US government and institutional investors.  Basulto concluded that if the leading cryptocurrency can consolidate its position and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gains traction, the predicted price of $150,000 could be achieved by next year. At the time of writing, BTC’s price retraced towards $87,330 following an early Monday move above $90,500.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Renowned Bitcoin advocate and El Salvador presidential advisor Max Keiser has once again reiterated his ultra-bullish outlook for BTC in 2025, doubling down on predictions that highlight the cryptocurrency’s role as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability. As the traditional financial systems face increasing pressure, Keiser maintains that BTC’s fixed supply and expanding market infrastructure position it for significant upside in the year ahead. How Macro Debt And Inflation Risks Strengthen Bitcoin’s Case According to a recent post from Crypto Miners on X, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser has once again reiterated his long-standing BTC thesis from 2025. Keiser points to total US debt surpassing $36 trillion and annual interest expenses approaching $1 trillion, claiming that this environment could push BTC beyond $2 million as capital seeks protection from fiat debasement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Forecast: Top Expert Predicts $40,000 Target Next Year, Here’s The Analysis The argument remains consistent with Keiser’s long-standing BTC maximalist stance, which links rising sovereign US debt expansion and currency dilution to upward pressure on a fixed supply asset. Replies are split, and supporters point to a 21 million supply against the unlimited debt. Thus, critics remain unconvinced, noting that BTC continues to trade below the $100,000 level despite similar high-conviction predictions made throughout 2025. Market commentator The Penguin updated that Bitcoin’s lower timeframe (LTF) structure is still looking a bit less impulsive, but nothing meaningful has changed in the count. Instead, BTC remains comfortable treating the current formation as a leading diagonal for wave 1, with recent LTF fluctuations resembling short-term noise rather than a decisive shift in trend. The Penguin pointed out that by setting Elliott Wave analysis aside and focusing on standard technical analysis, BTC continues to respect a well-defined range. This behavior is seen as consistent with the fact that Sunday trading and volume are light. From a trading perspective, the analyst’s focus is on longs and monitoring a possible shallow deviation toward the 0.886 retracement level marked on the chart. On the bullish side, the confirmation would be acceptance back above the $90,500 level, which would invalidate the bearish idea. Overall, the directional bias remains the same as the low-vol LTF chop is ahead of the yearly open. The Penguin added that the broader structure still looks solid and should hold up, while also noting signs of relative strength in assets such as XPL. Why Momentum Will Decide The Next Major Move Bitcoin high-timeframe (HTF) price action and momentum are currently navigating a structural pattern that mirrors a historical turning point. Crypto investor and trader known as Titan of Crypto has highlighted that BTC is showing a sequence similar to Q2 2021 and Q1 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recent Dips Reveal Market Structure Issue Not Coming From Selling Pressure While the structure price behavior remains comparable on the HTF charts, momentum indicators are showing signs of weakening. As a result, the next trend will depend on whether momentum can re-accelerate or confirm trend exhaustion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price found support and started a recovery wave above $88,000. BTC is now rising and might attempt to surpass the $89,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $88,000 zone. The price is trading above $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $89,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price managed to stay in a positive zone above $85,500 and started a recovery wave. BTC gained pace for a move above the $87,000 and $87,200 levels. The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $89,484 swing high to the $86,611 low. The bulls even pushed the price above $88,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $88,000, it could attempt a fresh recovery wave. Immediate resistance is near the $88,750 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $89,484 swing high to the $86,611 low. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $89,500 level. The next resistance could be $89,800. A close above the $89,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $91,500 and $92,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $89,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $88,000 level. The first major support is near the $87,250 level. The next support is now near the $86,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $84,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $88,000, followed by $87,250. Major Resistance Levels – $88,750 and $89,500.

Popular market analyst KillaXBT has shared a bold prediction of a Bitcoin super cycle. After multiple failed “super cycle” calls by other market enthusiasts, the anonymous market expert argues that Bitcoin’s defining breakout has yet to begin, highlighting a key market condition. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face Prolonged Pain As Key Metric Stays Red Metal Market Downtrend, Bitcoin Supertrend According to KillaXBT in an X post on December 27, the real super cycle will only emerge when capital decisively rotates away from precious metals and into Bitcoin, marking a generational shift rather than a typical crypto rally. Unlike past “premature” super-cycle narratives, driven more by optimism, the analyst references a budding price structure similarity that indicates a massive Bitcoin price rally ahead. Notably, interest in precious metals is soaring after gold and silver recently reached new ATH prices of $4,500 and $77, respectively. Similar to most analysts, KillaXBT anticipates these precious metals will eventually slip into a multi-year downtrend that will force investors to explore other havens against inflation. In particular, the analyst expects older generations to remain anchored in gold, while a new cohort of capital increasingly chooses Bitcoin as its preferred store of value. As metals underperform, a scarce Bitcoin is tipped to record an unprecedented demand. The analyst draws a historical parallel between gold in early 1972 and Bitcoin’s current position heading into 2027. In this period, Gold entered a powerful multi-year run as capital sought protection from inflation and currency debasement. KillaXBT argues Bitcoin is approaching a similar inflection point and is set to outperform every major asset class in the next cycle.  Interestingly, gold, long considered the ultimate store of value, is currently valued at an estimated $31.7 trillion in market cap value. Bitcoin, by contrast, sits near $1.83 trillion. KillaXBT explains that even at a Bitcoin price of $200,000, the network’s market cap would rise to roughly $5 trillion, still about six times smaller than gold, highlighting how early Bitcoin remains in the global asset hierarchy. Related Reading: Ethereum Investors Slide Deeper Into Losses – What The Drop Below $3,000 Means This Is The Last Sub $100,000 Bear Market – Analyst In concluding notes, KillaXBT states that skepticism has accompanied every major Bitcoin rally, consistently peaking just before large upside moves. In past cycles, critics pointed to regulation, environmental concerns, and volatility risks. Today, the fear narrative has shifted to emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The analyst suggests that these concerns may once again pressure investors out of the market prematurely. However, KillaXBT is taking a bullish stance as they believe the current phase could represent the final prolonged bear market in which Bitcoin trades below $100,000. However, they warn that investors should expect the supercycle boom in 2027, as 2026 is likely to be a bearish period. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview

Since the short squeeze in mid-December, Bitcoin has yet to make any significant price gain, facing multiple rejections at the $90,000 price zone. The maiden cryptocurrency is presently consolidating within the $87,000, while investors patiently anticipate a clear market direction. According to pseudonymous analyst Sunny Mom, recent on-chain analysis suggests that bearish sentiment will remain dominant in the coming months following the initial extended correction in October and November. Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Crypto Trader Explains What Happens Next Why Rising Short-Term Bitcoin Supply Is Flashing A Rare Bearish Signal In a QuickTake post on December 27, Sunny Mom draws attention to the BTC HODL waves, which show the rising share of short-term holders coinciding with falling prices, flipping a metric that typically supports bullish narratives. Historically, an increase in short-term holder (STH) supply, coins held for less than 155 days, suggests fresh capital is entering the market ahead of sustained rallies. However, the analyst described  the current move as “passive bag-holding” rather than signaling “new blood.” This is because investors who bought during the $120,000 rally in October, driven by FOMO, alongside dip buyers in November, now sit on unrealized losses, thereby creating a price setup that alters market behavior. Sunny Mom explains that each relief rally is met with selling pressure as these holders attempt to exit at breakeven, effectively turning the expanding STH cohort into a ceiling rather than a floor. Therefore, price rebounds struggle to gain traction.   The renowned analyst explains that the market is witnessing an emotional toll that is growing visibly on-chain. Notably, there have been repeated spikes in Net Realized Loss (NRL) since October liquidations, suggesting that capitulation is underway, with investors locking in losses after months of endurance. Sunny Mom describes the process as a “dull knife” finally cutting deep, an indication that weaker hands are being forced out, not through a single crash, but through prolonged exhaustion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face Prolonged Pain As Key Metric Stays Red Bitcoin In Demand Vacuum As Likely Fall Below $80,000 Remains Active In further analysis, Mom attributes the current bearish setup to a demand vacuum. The market expert explains that exchange reserves are sitting near multi-year lows, signaling limited immediate sell-side liquidity. At the same time, long-term holders (LTHs) show little interest in distributing coins, reinforcing the view that conviction capital remains intact. Therefore, the problem lies on the demand side. With macro uncertainty still elevated, new buyers appear hesitant to step in, creating a demand vacuum. This also creates thin order books, meaning even modest sell pressure can push prices sharply lower. While some market watchers target a potential recovery in Q1 2026, citing expectations of rate cuts and improved global liquidity. Mom predicts Bitcoin may need a “final shakeout” to resolve the imbalance and reset the market for a bullish breakout. The analyst points to a potential move below $80,000 as a liquidity hunt that could flush remaining weak hands and allow larger holders to reaccumulate. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is holding steady within a descending range, showing little directional conviction, while several altcoins are quietly building strength. As the market consolidates, these smaller assets could hint at early upside moves before BTC breaks out. Key Resistance In Focus: $90,588 And The Descending Trendline According to a recent update by Kamile Uray, there are no changes in the key levels being tracked on the daily chart, as the focus remains on the $90,588 level and the descending blue trendline. Unless BTC can close above these levels, the current decline may continue. Any upward moves below the blue descending trend are considered corrective rather than a trend reversal. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About The first support zone to monitor during the decline is between $83,822 and $82,477. A daily close below $82,477 would signal a continuation of the downtrend and could open the door toward the $74,496–$71,237 zone, marked by the blue box. This lower zone is viewed as a strong support area where buyers may step in. Thus, a clear reversal confirmation is key before considering any significant upward move. Once confirmed, a rally toward the blue descending trendline could follow, testing resistance levels along the way. For the uptrend to resume decisively, BTC would need to close above $90,588 and break the descending resistance. Meanwhile, a daily close above $94,130 would confirm that the blue descending trend has been broken, potentially signaling a shift to sustained bullish momentum. LTF Moves Show Less Impulse, But Structure Holds Crypto analyst The Penguin noted that the lower time frame (LTF) is showing slightly less impulsive action, though the overall count remains unchanged. The recent moves on the LTF appear more like noise and do not affect the broader wave count, and confidence in a leading diagonal for wave 1 remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Phase Begins: Weekly Support Holds, Momentum Fades Putting Elliott Wave analysis aside for a moment and leaning on standard technical analysis, BTC is clearly respecting a defined range. As a result, a minor deviation toward the 0.886 level marked on the chart is being closely watched as a potential entry point. Bullish confirmation will come if BTC manages to close and hold above $90,500, which would invalidate the current bearish scenario and signal the potential for a more sustained upward trend. Until then, the short-term fluctuations are considered normal noise, especially with the yearly open approaching. On the altcoin side, momentum appears to be holding, suggesting potential upside. Outperformance is already visible in altcoins like XPL, indicating that while BTC consolidates, some alts are starting to push higher. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin continues to underperform in the fourth quarter of 2025, its investors have had multiple reasons to offload and shave off their holdings. Among these investors is a certain cohort, its short-term holders (STHs), who have been facing heat over an extended period. STH MVRV In Deep Red For 60 Consecutive Days In a recent post on the X platform, market quant Burak Kesmeci revealed an interesting perspective regarding the current market condition for Bitcoin’s most reactive investors — the short-term holders. Kesmeci’s post revolves around the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric.  For context, this metric compares the market value of BTC to its realized value, thus serving as a means to track whether Bitcoin’s short-term investors are, on average, in profit or at a loss.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Go Quiet On Binance As Inflows Collapse: Supply Shock Setup? A reading less than the neutral “1” level typically indicates that the STHs are in the red. Depending on the depth of this value, it could also foreshadow capitulation events. On the other hand, values above 1 reveal that short-term investors are in profit. The higher the value, the more probable it is for profit-taking events to follow. In his post on X, the online pundit shared that the STH MVRV has been in deep red territory for a full period of 60 days. Kesmeci explained that the flagship cryptocurrency’s short-term investors are now facing the highest level of “patience test” that they have ever witnessed throughout 2025. Notably, prolonged periods of negative MVRV readings have often correlated with heightened market stress. Seeing as the market’s most-reactive investor cohort is the one concerned, the Bitcoin price could witness the effect of capitulation-driven sell-offs. However, the opposite is also possible. In the scenario where bearish pressure eases off completely, prolonged negative readings could be a sign of imminent market stabilization. Bitcoin Stays Beneath 111-Day SMA — What This Means For Price To lend more weight to his on-chain revelation, Kesmeci also followed up with a key technical observation of Bitcoin’s price action. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has been trading below the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111) within the same period. This alignment between on-chain and technical analysis thus functions to reinforce a clear narrative; Bitcoin is either currently at a consolidatory or corrective phase. This is contrary to the belief that the premier cryptocurrency might be at the start of a significant upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funds See Significant Net Outflows Heading Into Year-End – What’s Going On? From a broader perspective, Bitcoin’s future trajectory is not completely clear. Macro events, alongside renewed spot demand, could prove pivotal for the cryptocurrency in the future. This market phenomenon could determine whether BTC plunges deeper to the downside or begins its recovery journey. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $87,380, with no significant movement in the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The price of Bitcoin has continued to struggle under the psychological $90,000 level during the Christmas season, reflecting the sluggish climate of the crypto market. While the premier cryptocurrency and the rest of the crypto market floundered, other asset classes enjoyed significant Christmas season rallies. These recent performances suggest that the Bitcoin price might indeed be at the beginning of a bear market. According to the latest on-chain data, the price of BTC might be heading down to as low as $41,500 in the imminent period of extended downward movement. BTC Price To Reach Next Bottom In October 2026 In a new post on the X platform, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson has put forward a target and timeline for the Bitcoin price in the coming bear season. According to the on-chain expert, the market leader’s price could form its next cycle bottom around early October 2026. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Go Quiet On Binance As Inflows Collapse: Supply Shock Setup? This projection is based on the Repetition Fractal Cycle chart, which portrays how market patterns and price movements repeat themselves on different scales. Using investor behavioral patterns, this chart helps to predict price tops and bottoms across different timeframes. As shown in the chart above, a 4-year cycle is marked by various periods, starting with accumulation, then markup and distribution, before ending with the bear market. Wedson revealed that the most favorable time window for the next accumulation phase would likely be between October 6, 2026, and October 16, 2026, according to historical cycle symmetry. The Alphractal founder added that the price target for Bitcoin by the start of this accumulation phase is between $41,500 and $45,000. In essence, the bear market phase, which the premier cryptocurrency seems to only be at the start of, could see the price of BTC fall as much as 50% from the current price point. Wedson warned in his post: This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles — something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored. Markets do not repeat exactly — but they rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency. If the price of Bitcoin goes to around $45,000 from the current point, it would represent a roughly 65% decline from the cycle top. This is significantly lower than the over 75% correction seen in the last bear market in 2022. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $87,550, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price To Surge: Analyst Shares ‘Interesting Chart’ That Has Previously Led To A Rally Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market stands at a critical juncture, as it currently hovers above its $85,000 psychological level. Aside from its psychological validity, this key support also appears to hold technical importance. Hence, its strength could be tested before the market shows directional momentum. However, a recent analysis has surfaced that paints a grim picture for the flagship cryptocurrency’s future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Overhang: 6.6 Million BTC Bought Above Current Price Descending Triangle Forms Near $85,000 Support  In a recent post made on QuickTake, CryptoOnchain reveals that there has been the appearance of a classic technical pattern, indicative of an asset’s bearish continuation intent. This pattern, which is present on the Bitcoin daily timeframe, is characterized by a sequence of lower swing highs, with price compressing against a horizontal support acting as the triangle’s base. Interestingly, a price level, known as the Point Of Control (POC) — wherein lies the highest traded volume —  also sits near the $85,000 support. This further reinforces the significance of the price level. If this price level were to be breached decisively, the Bitcoin price could see a rapid downward movement, seeing as liquidation and capitulation events would likely follow. Notably, heightening downward pressure might be seen if very little or no demand comes into play to reassert bullish momentum. Related Reading: Ethereum’s 2026 Overhaul Aims To Cut Costs, Boost Speed, Limit Censorship Exchange Activity Drops To Multi-Year Lows CryptoOnchain supports his bearish hypothesis with another notable on-chain observation. The indicator here is the Bitcoin Exchange Withdrawing Transactions (7-day Moving Average) metric, which keeps tabs on the number of on-chain withdrawal transactions made from cryptocurrency exchanges over a period of seven days. The analyst highlights that the metric’s readings have fallen to levels around 5,000, the lowest seen since 2016, about nine years ago. Interestingly, this current level falls short of the readings put in during previous bear markets (in 2018, 2020, and 2022). Exchange withdrawal activity offers insight into investor conviction and accumulation behavior. Rising withdrawal activity signifies growing accumulation appetite and increasing confidence, as coins sent out of exchanges are usually kept in private wallets.   On the flipside, this significant fall in exchange withdrawal activity points to a deep feeling of disinterest among Bitcoin investors, or a lack of conviction that is important for long-term holding. Aside from the evident lack of urgency to acquire coins into private wallets, the low readings from this metric reveal that investors are also not actively accumulating BTC. The analyst concludes that “the data suggests widespread skepticism or exhaustion, with real, non-speculative demand largely absent.”  If the $85,000 support fails, the lack of interested buyers could cause Bitcoin’s price to fall rapidly. As of press time, Bitcoin holds a value of $87,410, with no real movement since the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Popular crypto analyst PlanD has drawn attention to a key development on the Bitcoin price chart, and identifies a pivotal development around $90,650 price level. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has struggled to break past the $90,000 price region since crashing below the price zone in mid-December. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Overhang: 6.6 Million BTC Bought Above Current Price Bitcoin Set For Potential Rally To $97,000 On Resistance Break — Analyst In an X post on Friday, PlanD explains that an ascending chart pattern is forming on the BTCUSD 4-hour chart following the price action of last week. For context, the rising or ascending triangle formation is a bullish chart pattern that forms when the price makes higher lows while repeatedly facing resistance at a relatively flat horizontal level. In technical analysis, the ascending triangle formation primarily signals growing buying pressure and a potential upside breakout. According to PlanD, the flatline resistance aligns with $90,650 after two price rejections, making this level a critical breakout point in the present price structure. Upon the likely event that the market bulls conquer this price level, the analyst postulates that Bitcoin would experience a forceful price surge into the upper band of the $93,500 to $97,000 price region.   This reactive price rise can be attributed to the potential short-squeeze that will be created when the short positions around the resistance region are forcefully closed by the price breakout. However, PlanD warns traders and investors should only interpret this price gain as a “short-term stop hunt/relief rally” rather than a structural trend reversal following Bitcoin bearish fortunes in Q4 2025.  The seasoned analyst advocates for a cautious market stance, stating that investors should prepare for a position reassessment at $97,000 unless the price decisively moves above this target. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funds See Significant Net Outflows Heading Into Year-End – What’s Going On? Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $87,661 following a minor decline of 0.18% in the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is up by 133.35%, suggesting increased trader activity and positioning ahead of a potential major price move. Interestingly, analysts of both sentiment camps have reiterated their positions in recent days. Prominent market expert Ali Martinez is convinced that the bear market began after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $ 126,100 in early October. According to Martinez, the market is currently in a phase of complacency, where investors continue to anticipate another price surge instead of actively de-risking or reducing their positions. From the bullish camp, analyst Ash Crypto states the bull market run remains active, considering the price surge and new all-time highs in commodities markets such as gold and silver. The pundit expects an eventual rotation of capital from these markets into Bitcoin, with price targets set at $150,000 in the new year. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

As the first crypto ETFs targeting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) near their second anniversary in the US, Galaxy Digital has made optimistic predictions regarding future inflows, projecting that they will outpace 2025 figures.  Institutional Adoption Expected To Skyrocket In its 2026 forecast report, which concentrates on 26 critical areas, the firm anticipates that net inflows into US spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion. This comes on the heels of a successful 2025, which saw net inflows reach $23 billion.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Correction Timeline: Analyst Predicts Potential Bottom In October 2026 Galaxy Digital believes that as institutional adoption continues to grow, these figures will accelerate in 2026. Wirehouses lifting restrictions on advisor recommendations and Vanguard introducing crypto funds, are expected to facilitate this. BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds alone are forecasted to surpass their 2025 inflow levels. In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Galaxy Digital reports an anticipated wave of new crypto ETFs, particularly in the spot altcoin products.  Galaxy Digital Forecasts Over 100 New Crypto ETFs The firm estimates that over 50 spot altcoin exchange-traded funds, along with another 50 crypto ETFs that do not focus on single coins, will debut in the US.  Following the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent approval of generic listing standards, the number of spot altcoin ETF launches is expected to gain momentum in 2026.  In 2025, more than 15 spot crypto ETFs were launched for various altcoins, including Solana (SOL), XRP, Hedera (HBAR), Dogecoin (DOE), Litecoin (LTC), and Chainlink (LINK).  Galaxy Digital anticipates that notable assets yet to file their spot ETFs will soon follow suit, and in addition to single-asset products, the market is also likely to see the introduction of multi-asset ETFs and leveraged crypto ETFs.  Over 290 Crypto Companies Ready For US IPO Beyond Crypto ETFs, Galaxy Digital also predicts that more than 15 cryptocurrency companies will pursue initial public offerings (IPOs) or uplist in the US. Over the past year, 10 crypto-related firms, including Galaxy itself, successfully went public or uplisted.  Related Reading: Ethereum Fails To Surpass $3,000: Predictions For The Final Days Of The Year The firm notes that more than 290 crypto and blockchain companies have completed significant private funding rounds since 2018, positioning them to seek US listings as regulatory conditions improve.  Among the companies believed to be potential candidates for initial public offerings or uplisting in 2026 are CoinShares, BitGo (which has already filed), Chainalysis, and FalconX. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,480, which is a 30% retracement from the all-time highs reached in October, and a 3% drop over the past month. Similarly, the gap between Ethereum’s current trading levels of $2,930 and its all-time highs is 40%, with a 3% drop over the past 30 days.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows a chunk of the Bitcoin supply has its cost basis above the current spot price, which could potentially shape volatility if BTC rebounds. Bitcoin Supply Overhang Could Dictate Volatility & Selling Pressure As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, over 6.6 million BTC is being held above the latest spot price of the cryptocurrency. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Supply In Loss,” which measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of Bitcoin that’s currently carrying some net unrealized loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 13 Days On Christmas The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. If this previous transfer price was more than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is considered to be in a state of loss. The Supply In Loss adds up all coins fulfilling this condition to find the total situation on the network. A counterpart indicator called the Supply In Profit accounts for the supply of the opposite type. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply In Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply In Loss shrunk to a value of zero as the asset’s price set its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 back in October, but with the market downturn that has followed since then, the indicator’s value has shot up. Today, around 6.6 million tokens of the cryptocurrency sit below cost basis, equivalent to a third of the BTC supply in circulation. The recent highs in the Supply In Loss represent the highest degree of pain in the market since 2023. In another X post, the analyst has shared the chart for another Bitcoin indicator, this one called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD contains information about how much BTC was bought last at each of the levels that the asset has visited in its history. Looks like a significant portion of the supply sits above the spot price | Source: @JA_Maartun on X From the chart of the URPD, it’s visible how the Bitcoin supply that’s in loss is distributed across the various levels right now. A few levels are particularly prominent in the degree of supply that they carry, while some others are notably thin with coins. Generally, investors who are in loss look forward to a retest of their cost basis so that they can get their money “back.” Once this happens, some of these hands decide to exit, fearing that BTC will go down again in the near future. This selling can make large supply clusters above the spot price, potential points of volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trading Near ‘Fair Value,’ Says On-Chain Model Considering that a large portion of the supply is underwater right now, a venture back to higher levels could be met with selling pressure for Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery during the past day as its price has returned to $88,600. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum below the $90,000 level, yet it continues to hold above $86,000, reflecting a market gripped by indecision. Price action has narrowed into a tight range, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert clear control. As volatility compresses, apathy has become a defining feature of the current environment, and an increasing number of analysts are openly discussing the possibility that the market is transitioning toward a broader bear phase. Related Reading: XRP Exchange Reserves On Binance Fall To Six-Month Low: Selling Pressure Is Easing While price levels dominate headlines, on-chain data suggests the more important battle is unfolding beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s current positioning cannot be understood by price alone. Instead, attention is shifting toward the cost bases of key market participants, particularly whales and Binance spot users. Even with Bitcoin trading around $87,000, the most consequential level sits significantly higher. Data shows that the average cost basis of new whales, defined as holders with coins younger than 155 days, is clustered around $100,500. This zone represents a critical break-even threshold for large players who entered the market recently. As a result, every approach toward $100,000 carries heightened significance. That level may either trigger distribution, as whales seek to protect capital, or mark the start of renewed accumulation if confidence returns. Cost Basis Data Maps Bitcoin Real Support and Resistance The report highlights that beneath Bitcoin’s current price action, cost basis data offers a clearer framework for understanding market risk. For Binance spot users, the average cost basis sits near $56,000. This level represents the largest concentration of spot volume in the market and effectively defines the “deep water” zone if conditions deteriorate. In a prolonged bearish phase, $56K is where the bulk of spot holders would be tested, making it a critical long-term support area rather than a short-term trading level. Long-term whale positioning adds another important layer. The cost basis for whales holding Bitcoin longer than 155 days is clustered around $40,000. This means these participants are still sitting on profits of more than 2x, even after the recent correction. That profit cushion helps explain the rise in realized gains seen over recent weeks. For many long-term holders, current prices already represent a satisfactory exit, increasing the incentive to distribute into strength rather than aggressively accumulate. Taken together, the data reframes Bitcoin’s market structure. The key short-term ceiling remains near $100,000, where newer whales approach breakeven and supply tends to emerge. On the downside, $56,000 stands out as the level where spot market conviction would be most severely tested. Related Reading: Ethereum Bearish Structure Meets Bullish Supply Signal – What Happens Next Bitcoin Consolidates Above Key Weekly Support as Momentum Cools Bitcoin is trading near the $88,700 level on the weekly chart, stabilizing after a sharp pullback from the $120,000–$125,000 highs reached earlier this cycle. While the broader uptrend from 2024 remains intact, recent price action signals a clear slowdown in momentum. The market has shifted from an impulsive expansion phase into a corrective and consolidative structure, with volatility compressing around a critical support zone. Technically, Bitcoin is holding just above its rising medium-term moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout this bull cycle. The rejection above $110,000 marked a decisive loss of upside control, and the failure to quickly reclaim that zone suggests distribution rather than a brief pause. At the same time, price remains well above the long-term moving average, reinforcing that this move is still corrective within a larger trend, not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin and Ethereum Coinbase Inflows Collapse While Binance Retains Relative Activity – Details Volume dynamics support this interpretation. Selling pressure expanded during the initial breakdown, but recent weeks show declining volume as price stabilizes between roughly $86,000 and $90,000. This points to seller exhaustion, though buyers have yet to step in with conviction. Structurally, the $86,000–$88,000 range is pivotal. Holding this zone keeps the higher-timeframe bullish structure alive. A clean breakdown would expose deeper downside. While a recovery above $95,000 would be needed to reassert bullish momentum and reopen the path toward prior highs. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price dynamics heading into the next market cycle are being reframed by Michael Saylor, who argues that the forces capable of pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs have little to do with speculation, retail enthusiasm, or ETF-driven flows. Instead, Saylor’s outlook positions Bitcoin price appreciation as the outcome of a deeper structural transition that is unfolding quietly within the banking system.  Michael Saylor On Bitcoin Price’s Structural Shift As the market looks toward 2026, Michael Saylor’s thesis on Bitcoin price action focuses on a structural shift away from trader-driven dynamics toward regulated financial institutions, a transition that could fundamentally reshape how capital engages with Bitcoin at scale. For most of its history, Bitcoin price discovery has been dominated by cyclical trading behavior, leverage, and sentiment-driven momentum. Related Reading: Why The Current XRP Valuation Doesn’t Make Sense Even milestones such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, while broadening access, largely remain confined to traditional capital markets. Saylor’s view departs from this model by highlighting Bitcoin’s gradual integration into bank balance sheets, where valuation is driven by utility, collateralization, and long-term capital allocation rather than short-term market cycles. Recent developments underscore this shift. A growing number of major US banks have begun offering Bitcoin-collateralized loans, a move that signals a reclassification of Bitcoin from a high-volatility trading asset to a recognized form of financial collateral. Lending against Bitcoin reflects institutional confidence in its liquidity, custody standards, and long-term value stability. In practical terms, this positions Bitcoin alongside assets that are suitable for credit creation rather than short-term speculation. Once Bitcoin is integrated into lending structures, treasury operations, and institutional risk models, demand characteristics change materially. Capital deployed through these channels is not reactive to short-term price fluctuations. It is strategic, compliance-driven, and designed for multi-year horizons. This type of demand absorbs supply consistently, reinforcing scarcity dynamics already embedded in Bitcoin’s fixed issuance model. As a result, Bitcoin price appreciation becomes a function of sustained capital allocation rather than episodic market rallies. Banking Infrastructure And The New Ceiling For Bitcoin Price Saylor identifies 2026 as the period when the impact of banking adoption becomes fully visible. Major financial institutions such as Charles Schwab and Citigroup, planning to roll out Bitcoin custody and related services, point to a broader alignment between Bitcoin and regulated financial infrastructure.  Related Reading: $130 Million XRP Fumble: Analyst Reveals What Went Wrong Custody plays a pivotal role in this process. When banks custody Bitcoin, they unlock the ability to embed it across wealth management platforms, corporate treasury strategies, and secured lending products. This dramatically expands Bitcoin’s addressable capital base by enabling participation from institutions previously constrained by regulatory, operational, or fiduciary limitations.  As banking participation deepens, Bitcoin price behavior is likely to evolve. Volatility driven by leveraged trading and speculative positioning diminishes in relative importance, while long-term balance-sheet accumulation becomes a dominant force. In this environment, according to Saylor, Bitcoin’s new all-time highs will not be the product of sudden euphoria but the result of sustained absorption by institutions operating at scale. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The ongoing Bitcoin price play out leading into a bear market is now one of the most pressing questions in the crypto industry. Right now, Bitcoin is trading between $87,700 and $88,000, which is a 30% drop from the all-time high it reached in October 2025.  Price action alone often leaves room for debate, but on-chain data is beginning to offer clearer guidance. Notably, analysis from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting in a way that aligns more closely with early-stage bear market conditions. BCMI Drops Below Equilibrium The important bear market signal is from Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which is a composite indicator that blends price behavior with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a definitive cycle top. At the time, the assumption was that Bitcoin was consolidating after an extended rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow However, that view has weakened with the deterioration of market conditions. Particularly, Bitcoin’s price action has declined materially since late October, and the BCMI has fallen in tandem with the price. This joint decline suggests the market has reset not only through time but also through valuation and participation.  As shown on the chart below, the BCMI has now slipped below its equilibrium zone, and this is a development that is known to coincide with transitions into bearish phases, where rallies tend to be capped, and downside risks increase. A closer look at prior Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms formed only after BCMI compressed into the 0.25 to 0.35 range. Those levels reflected deep sentiment compression, washed-out positioning, and a structural reset of the market. At current readings, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index is less than 0.4. This reading is below equilibrium but still well above a bottom zone. This opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback. According to the analyst, a more durable bottom may only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI revisits 2019-2023 levels. Weak Sentiment Adds To Bear Market Evidence Market sentiment is also supporting the idea that Bitcoin is moving deeper into a bearish phase. Optimism has been really scarce in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable floor. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently posting a reading of 28, which places sentiment firmly in the Fear zone. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About This poor sentiment backdrop has been affirmed by industry commentary. For instance, Changpeng Zhao recently noted that many investors only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at all-time highs. In practice, those early accumulations happened during periods like the present one, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt dominate market psychology. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com