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Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market have experienced sharp price swings and declines since 2025. Because of this volatility, a crypto analyst has warned that the market correction could intensify further in 2026. In a detailed analysis, he outlines a bearish scenario for Bitcoin, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency could soon face another price crash amid persistent downward pressure in the broader stock market.  Analyst Warns Of Major Bitcoin And Stock Market Plunge Market analyst Doctor Profit has raised concerns about the direction of the crypto and traditional markets, warning that both Bitcoin and stocks are currently in a severe bear market. In a technical breakdown on X this Monday, the expert highlighted three major bearish setups forming simultaneously in Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Why The $2.9 Billion Bitcoin Whale Buy Could Spell Doom For The Market He highlighted a massive Bearish Divergence on the weekly and monthly charts, a clear bearish flag signaling a potential drop toward $70,000, and a possible Head and Shoulder pattern that could still play out. While he acknowledged that Bitcoin could still experience short-term price increases and briefly rise toward the $97,000-$107,000 range due to strong liquidity, he said that the ultimate target remains $70,000.  Doctor Profit emphasized that Bitcoin’s potential decline to $70,000 could go two ways. It could either break out of the bearish flag to that downside target or complete the Head and Shoulders pattern before reaching $70,000. He stated that he will not add new short positions at current prices but plans to increase them aggressively from $115,000 to $125,000 if Bitcoin moves into the $97,000 to $107,000 range.  The analyst painted a similarly grim picture for the stock market. He said he was “ultra-bearish” on both Bitcoin and the financial system. He also noted that the banks are stressed and that forced liquidations in precious metals like Silver are creating ripples across the broader market.  Additionally, Doctor Profit noted that insider activity shows clear signs of panic among investors, with record levels of selling since August 2025. Because of this, the analyst believes that the market is heading for a 2008-style crash. Consequently, he has concluded that the current market conditions are too extreme.   On the bright side, Doctor Profit said that although he maintains short positions on stocks and Bitcoin, he remains bullish on Gold and Silver. He explained that any upside to the $97,000-$107,000 range will prompt him to increase his short exposure and roll spot profits for BTC from $85,000 into these positions.  Crypto Markets Brace For Key US Decisions Toward the end of his analysis, Doctor Profit discussed upcoming events that could influence Bitcoin and the broader financial markets this week. He stated that the US CPI inflation forecast of 2.7% will be released this Tuesday. Other than this, the rest of the week is expected to have few market-moving events.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hits Crash Line, But This Time Is Not Random Doctor Profit has also highlighted January 15 as an important date because US lawmakers will vote on the CLARITY Act. He explained that if the bill passes, it will move closer to becoming law, setting clear rules and oversight for the crypto market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In an era marked by rising inflation, Bitcoin was framed as a radical experiment in digital cash. However, as the global economic landscape has shifted, the narrative around BTC has changed. It is now being discussed as a modern savings tool designed for a world where traditional savings are steadily losing their purchasing power. Normalisation Of Bitcoin As A Savings Asset A common framing of Bitcoin today is that it is a savings technology, digital gold, and something to hold, rather than use. According to Ben SAN’s post on X, that framing has become incomplete and ultimately wrong. This is because BTC is not meant to sit alongside fiat as another savings vehicle, but to replace fiat as a monetary base and a financial base that cannot be used or function as money. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Being Absorbed By Powerful Financial Players — What This Means However, for BTC to operate as a form of finance, it has to be usable at scale. That usability at scale implies execution, settlement abstraction, fast interactions, and cost-efficient transactions. BTC layer 1 is designed for finality and neutrality, not to satisfy these requirements, and it shouldn’t be. This is why BTC needs layer 2s to operate as money. “Once you accept that Bitcoin needs L2s to be usable as money, you stop asking whether alts are competing with Bitcoin and start asking whether they are serving Bitcoin,” the expert stated. If acceptance of altcoins is ever possible in the BTC-first community, it won’t come from alternative monetary assets. Instead, the acceptance of the altcoins will only come from systems that keep BTC as the unit of account and native asset, while extending its usability crucially without weakening its guarantees.  In these cases, auxiliary tokens may be introduced, but only where BTC is structurally incapable of performing the required coordination or incentive functions around expressiveness and yield. Furthermore, any non-BTC asset that has a legitimate chance of being accepted within the community will earn that legitimacy by filling those gaps in a way BTC itself cannot fulfill. History Shows What Happens After These Bitcoin Buys Crypto analyst Mattertrades highlighted that Bitcoin is trading above the weekly resistance, and the path is slow and clear. This setup is a result of Michael Saylor stepping in this week with his largest purchase since July, acquiring $1.5 billion worth of BTC. The last time he did this, BTC surged to $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Remains Weak: Setting The Stage For Long-Term Accumulation At the same time, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)-related news for Strategy was very bullish, and it actually attracted more buyers. Mattertrades concluded that this is how a bullish case quietly forms. If Saylor’s purchases bring in more buyers, reflexivity will begin because when he starts accumulating such large amounts again, other players will follow suit. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holder outflows have been declining recently, a potential sign that selling pressure may be fading. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Netflow Is Getting Less Negative In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the netflow associated with the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs refer to BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for a period longer than 155 days. Related Reading: Solana Price Jumps, But Network Adoption Remains Weak Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs with their long holding time are considered to include the resolute hands of the market. Though, while these HODLers tend to be patient, they have shown several phases of distribution during the last couple of years. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the monthly netflow of the Bitcoin LTHs. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin LTHs observed streaks of net outflows during both the bull rallies of 2024, suggesting that the diamond hands of the market participated in profit-taking. A short phase of distribution also appeared in mid-2025, indicating that the LTHs were doing yet another wave of profit realization. This selling was followed by a brief period of net inflows for the cohort, which was then followed by another wave of distribution in late 2025. This last phase of distribution is still ongoing, as the monthly netflow associated with the LTHs remains negative. The latest selloff has been a bit different from the last three, however, as it has occurred alongside bearish momentum in the cryptocurrency, not a price jump. While the distribution has continued, its intensity has been dropping lately as the netflow of the Bitcoin LTHs has been becoming less negative. As the analytics firm explains: Net outflows have rolled over from extreme levels, indicating that the market is progressively absorbing long-held supply and that a large portion of overhead supply may now be largely worked through. The decline in net outflows has come alongside a drop in the Realized Profit of the group, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. The Realized Profit here is an indicator that measures the total amount of profit that LTHs are realizing through their transactions. From the chart, it’s apparent that the profit-taking from the cohort was elevated earlier, but recently, the Realized Profit has dropped to a low level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks Drop To $69,000 If Pennant Support Breaks, Analyst Warns The analytics firm noted: Such conditions are often associated with heightened uncertainty and tend to emerge during mid-bull market pauses or the early stages of deeper bear markets. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $91,800, down almost 3% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a consolidation phase below $92,000. BTC is holding the $89,500 support and might attempt to start a fresh increase. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above $90,000 and $90,500. The price is trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $90,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Stays In A Range Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $89,500 support and started a minor recovery wave. BTC was able to settle above $90,000 and $90,500. The bulls were able to push the price above $91,500, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. However, the price seems to be facing a major hurdle near the $92,000 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low is acting as a resistance. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $90,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $92,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $92,800 level. The next resistance could be $93,450. A close above the $93,450 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $94,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,000 and $95,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $91,000 level. The first major support is near the $90,650 level and the trend line. The next support is now near the $90,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $89,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $89,250, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $91,000, followed by $90,650. Major Resistance Levels – $92,000 and $92,800.

Bitcoin has entered a fresh bout of volatility after a rare and highly charged response from Jerome Powell, following reports that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation related to his conduct as Federal Reserve Chair. In a direct and unusually pointed statement, Powell said: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” Related Reading: CVDD Model Signals Bitcoin Is Not Yet Deeply Undervalued: Drawdown Lags Historical Cycles The market reaction was immediate. Bitcoin dropped from the $92,500 area to nearly $90,500, reflecting heightened uncertainty as traders reassessed political and macro risks. The move interrupted an otherwise stable consolidation phase and reintroduced volatility at a moment when BTC was attempting to build support above the $90,000 level. What makes this episode particularly notable is the shift in Powell’s public stance. Over the past 12 months, despite repeated criticism from President Trump, Powell consistently declined to engage, often responding with variations of “I have no response or comment.” That long-standing silence broke yesterday. As markets digest the implications, Bitcoin now finds itself at the intersection of macro policy, political pressure, and investor psychology. The next reaction—both from policymakers and from risk assets—could prove decisive for short-term price direction. Retail Fear Persists as Short-Term Holders Capitulate Within the Uptrend A recent CryptoQuant analysis adds another layer to the current political and macro-driven volatility, revealing that retail investors remain fearful of short-term price swings even as Bitcoin maintains a broader upward structure. The Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH SOPR) highlights a recurring behavioral pattern that tends to appear during corrective phases within a larger bull trend. Despite Bitcoin printing higher highs and higher lows throughout 2024 and 2025, short-term investors have been consistently realizing losses. Toward the end of last year, retail sentiment deteriorated sharply, with the STH SOPR dropping to around 0.98. Levels last seen in November 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $16,000. While the indicator has not fully entered extreme capitulation territory below 0.98, it has remained under the neutral 1.00 level for more than 70 days, signaling sustained selling at a loss. This divergence is critical when STH SOPR remains below 1.00, coinciding with extended consolidations or corrective phases, driven by heightened pressure since Bitcoin broke above its previous all-time high. Historically, periods where STH SOPR stays below 1.00 coincide with extended consolidation or corrective phases, driven by elevated fear and realized losses. However, during the current uptrend, these episodes have repeatedly marked favorable accumulation zones. The mismatch between rising prices and capitulating retail behavior often reflects opportunity rather than weakness. This highlights Bitcoin’s underlying structural strength despite short-term volatility. Related Reading: Ethereum Long-Term Cost Basis Holds Firm: Structural Floor Forms Near $2.8K Bitcoin Consolidates Below Key Resistance as Volatility Compresses Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market in a consolidation phase following a sharp correction from the October highs near $120,000. After losing the $100,000 psychological level, BTC found demand in the low-$80,000s before rebounding toward the $90,000–$94,000 range, where price is currently stalling. This zone has clearly become a short-term equilibrium. With buyers defending higher lows but struggling to generate enough momentum for a decisive breakout. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average, which is now acting as dynamic resistance around the mid-$90,000 area. In contrast, the 100-week moving average continues to slope upward well below the price. Reinforcing the idea that the broader macro trend remains intact despite recent weakness. The 200-week moving average, far lower, continues to define the long-term bull market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Remains In A High-Risk Zone As Short-Term Holders Stay Underwater Volume has compressed significantly during this consolidation, suggesting reduced participation and indecision. This typically precedes a volatility expansion rather than a continuation of slow, sideways trading. As long as BTC holds above the rising 100-week moving average, downside appears structurally limited. Failure to reclaim the $94,000 resistance zone would keep the market vulnerable to another leg of consolidation before a sustainable trend resumes. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Claims that a Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale suddenly returned to the market with a multi-billion-dollar purchase have injected tension into an already fragile Bitcoin price action. The claims gained traction after social media posts on X revealed that an address dormant since 2011 had accumulated roughly 26,900 BTC, a move framed by some as a powerful bullish signal.  However, a few others saw something very different. One warning revealed that the timing and context of the transfer pointed toward a setup that could lead to a large-scale distribution. Why Some Traders See A Major Red Flag Claims that a Satoshi-Era Bitcoin address might be actually buying billions of dollars’ worth of BTC took many investors by surprise. According to a crypto participant known as 0xNobler on the social media platform X, the whale address became active for the first time since 2011 and went all in on Bitcoin again. Such a purchase goes against the trend of Satoshi-era whales becoming active after many years to sell their holdings.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hits Crash Line, But This Time Is Not Random The claim of purchase is very bullish on the outside, but there are also bearish interpretations of the move. The bearish interpretation is based on market psychology and the historical behavior of early Bitcoin holders.  A wallet allegedly active since the Satoshi era would have acquired BTC at negligible prices, often well below $1. From that perspective, the idea that such an entity waited more than a decade only to buy aggressively near all-time highs appears illogical. A critic argued that sudden movements involving billions of dollars at the current price action indicate preparation. According to the critic, the entity behind the whale address is preparing to distribute. Large transfers into newly active wallets can be part of liquidity staging, designed to allow gradual distribution without causing immediate panic.  Satoshi-Era Whale Story Appears To Be A Misunderstanding Closer inspection of the on-chain data indicates that the dramatic narrative surrounding this event rests on questionable assumptions. A few other crypto market participants pointed out that the circulated image claiming a Satoshi-era whale went all in on Bitcoin is edited and misleading, and that the receiving address labeled ‘3FsDiW’ may not belong to an early individual holder at all. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Interestingly, blockchain trackers link the address to Twenty One Capital, with records showing that it was created only a few days ago and the first transaction was first received on January 10, 2026. Transaction history shows a small test transfer of 1 BTC to Bitfinex, after which the remaining funds were consolidated into the new address ‘3FsDiW’ from another wallet already associated with Twenty One Capital. Twenty One Capital is a publicly traded Bitcoin-focused company that reportedly holds more than 43,000 BTC on its balance sheet. This distinction matters, as it removes the existential fear implied by the original claims of a Bitcoin whale buying billions worth of Bitcoin. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a downside extension below $92,000. BTC is now recovering from $89,220 and might face barriers for a fresh increase near $92,000. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above $90,000 and $90,500. The price is trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $90,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $90,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Attempts Recovery Bitcoin price failed to stay above $91,500 and started a downside correction. BTC dipped below $92,000 and $91,200 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even dipped below $90,500 and tested $90,000. A low was formed at $89,225 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above $90,500. The price climbed higher above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $90,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $90,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $92,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. The first key resistance is near the $92,650 level. The next resistance could be $93,500. A close above the $93,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $94,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,000 and $95,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $91,250 level. The first major support is near the $90,500 level. The next support is now near the $90,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $89,250 support in the near term. The main support sits at $88,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $91,250, followed by $90,500. Major Resistance Levels – $92,500 and $93,500.

The Bitcoin price has slowed down after a relatively hot start to the year, as it appears that not much has structurally changed for the market leader. A crypto analyst recently revealed that the premier cryptocurrency continues to trade beneath a critical price threshold. Why The Present Scenario Raises Caution Among Investors  In a January 10 post on social media platform X, analyst Ali Martinez shared that the Bitcoin price has continued to trade underneath its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). This not-so-optimistic trend, according to the crypto pundit, has been ongoing for the past nine weeks.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Maintains Mid-$90k Levels: Possible Price Targets — Analyst For context, the 50-week SMA is a long-term technical indicator that calculates, on average, the closing price of an asset — in this case, Bitcoin — over the past 50 weeks. This indicator is particularly useful in establishing points of dynamic support and resistance during differing market cycles. For example, it functions as support during bull markets and acts as resistance in bear markets.  When Bitcoin trades above the 50W SMA, it is often a sign that the market is in a strong uptrend. Contrarily, when the Bitcoin price trades beneath this dynamic resistance level for an extended period, it indicates that upside momentum is weakening and that major corrections might soon ensue. Interestingly, historical data is the source of this observation. From the chart shared below, there are recurrent periods where the Bitcoin price stayed consistently below the 50W SMA. In those past cycles, these periods of prolonged deviation beneath the 50W SMA preceded major pullbacks for BTC, which often ranged between 50% to 70%.  Notably, the pullbacks seen did not end Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend. Rather — as is typical of corrections — they likely served as reset phases, where excessive leverage was wiped out of the market in preparation for the next long-term continuations. As a result, concerns have been raised among Bitcoin market participants, considering the similarity of the current setup to past ones. If history were to repeat itself here, the Bitcoin price could see a pullback by at least 50%, with the price falling to levels as low as $50,000. Bitcoin Price Outlook On a more positive note, the Bitcoin price still has a chance to escape the snares of its historical woes. For this to happen, the world’s leading cryptocurrency would have to reclaim the 50-week moving average and hold above it for prolonged periods. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $90,352, reflecting no movement in the past day.  Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Peak Might Ignite ADA’s Rally, Says Cardano Creator Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to hover within the $90,000 price range, producing no significant price movement in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, a subtle on-chain development is indicating a potential change in market trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Is Not In At $126,000, According To The Business Cycle, Here’s Why STH SOPR Above 1 — Bullish Rebound Or Fakeout?  The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is a key on-chain metric that judges investors’ sentiment. In definition, the STH-SOPR measures whether Bitcoin holders are presently selling their assets at a loss or at a profit. According to pseudonymous analyst CryptoMe, this important on-chain metric has recently flashed an eye-catching signal that could imply a trend reversal following months of deep market corrections. Notably,  Bitcoin slipped into a prolonged downtrend in early October, after establishing its current all-time high at $126,100. On October 10, which represents the initial phase of this price correction, CryptoMe states the STH-SOPR fell below 1.0 in line with its natural behavior. As seen in the image above, the Bitcoin STH-SOPR stays below 1.0 during bear seasons to indicate that BTC holders are exiting at a loss. During this period, it is also observed that 1.0 midline acts as an effective resistance, restricting upward STH-SOPR movement to signal that the market structure remains weak. Alternatively, in bullish markets, the STH-SOPR moves above 1.0, which becomes a strong price floor provided a buy-side dominance remains. According to CryptoMe, this latter positive scenario has occurred in the past week, marking the first instance after October 10. In line with standard interpretation, CryptoMe explains that this recent development represents a new hope for a possible trend reversal if the STH-SOPR sustains its move above the 1.0 threshold. Notably, an opposite case would suggest a fake-out and possibly reinforce existing bearish market sentiments. Related Reading: Bitcoin Maintains Mid-$90k Levels: Possible Price Targets — Analyst Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,590, after a negligible 0.13% gain in the past 24 hours. However, its daily trading volume is down by 66.41% and valued at $13.38 billion. This suggests that market participation is fading out amid a sustained consolidation. In terms of a potential breakout, emerging market catalysts suggest an equal potential for the price to swing in either direction. For example, the odds of the Federal Open Market Committee implementing a rate cut have dropped drastically from 95% to 5%. Following recent predictions, the policy committee is likely to hold the rates steady, which may draw out a possible negative reaction from Bitcoin. On the other hand, regulatory developments in the US are shaping up positively. Most notably, the Clarity Act has been slated for a markup session, indicating progress toward regulatory clarity that could encourage further institutional and retail investment. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin enters the weekend in a quiet, range-bound mode, with support around $90,500–$88,200 holding firm. While price action remains subdued for now, key resistance levels near $94,100–$107,500 will likely dictate the market’s next major move. Whether BTC resumes its upward trajectory or tests deeper support, the coming week could provide the confirmation the market has been waiting for. Expect Slower Bitcoin Market Moves According to Kamile Uray, the market has entered the weekend, a period typically characterized by slow and subdued price action. The key support region between $90,588 and $88,280 has not yet formed a clear bottom, but it continues to prevent a sharper decline. Related Reading: Three Key Levels For Bitcoin: Top Analysts Caution Against Potential Drop Below $70,000 On the upside, a daily close above the $94,130 resistance would signal that bullish momentum is resuming. If this level is cleared, the next key resistance to watch is in the $98,200–$107,500 range. The $107,500 mark is particularly significant, as a daily close above it would represent the first higher high relative to the last downward wave on the daily chart, potentially opening the door for further upward continuation. Should the market face deeper declines, there are multiple support zones to monitor: $86,398, $83,822, and $82,477. As long as BTC holds above $82,477, any pullbacks are likely to be considered retests of previous breakouts, keeping the broader bullish scenario intact. If BTC closes below $82,477, it could trigger a continuation of the downtrend, possibly testing the $74,496–$71,237 zone, which represents a strong support area. Once a clear reversal is confirmed from this region, an upward move targeting the downtrend line could follow, offering a potential opportunity for traders to re-enter the market. Weekend Choppiness Expected As Volume Remains Light In a more recent update by Lennaert Snyder on X, Bitcoin has entered its weekend liquidity phase. As usual, trading activity is expected to be muted due to weak weekend volume. Looking ahead to next week, Snyder noted that the best-case scenario would be a break above the monthly open in the next weekly candle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Absorbs The Flush: Quantum Structure Signals Wave (3) Toward $104,000 Snyder is monitoring key triggers for quality trades. Historically, Sunday “scam-pumps” have provided opportunities to execute short trades near liquidity zones. Currently, the $87,600 monthly open is viewed as the main target for potential downside. A diagonal line drawn on the chart highlights buy-side liquidity from shorts, which could be swept before a market structure break (MSB) forms, allowing shorts to be executed. If Bitcoin climbs above the current weekly high near $94,700, Snyder notes that the setup would simply wait for the next MSB to enter shorts again. Another key resistance to watch next week is around $96,500. A clean break above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis targeting the monthly open, signaling that upward momentum could dominate. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Following the recent bullish momentum seen early in the year, the Bitcoin price has displayed a bit of correctional movement and now stands closer to $90,000 than it did a week ago. While BTC’s most recent retracement raises suspicions of resistance lying at the $94,000 price, the latest on-chain evaluation hypothesizes the presence of a more relevant resistance just beneath $100,000. New Whales’ Cost Basis Sits Around $99k On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr recently took to the social media platform X to share an interesting hypothesis on the Bitcoin price trajectory. His on-chain observation was based on the Realized Price New Whale STH Vs Old Whale LTH indicator.  For context, this metric compares the acquisition cost, on average, of recently accumulated whale holdings (short-term holders) with that of Bitcoin’s long-term whale holdings.  Related Reading: Why Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Is The ‘Most Bullish Thing Ever’: Jeff Park Axel Adler Jr shared in his post that new whales have an average entry price near the $99,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin holds a valuation near $90,000, meaning its new whales are holding through unrealized losses. Hence, if the premier cryptocurrency ascends towards these whales’ average acquisition price of $99,000, the crypto pundit explained that these investors might become incentivized to sell their holdings. This means that these large BTC holders exit the market at break-even prices, or while incurring minimal losses.  When the largest Bitcoin investors sell their holdings, the effect often translates to price through reduced buying momentum and a simultaneous increase in downside pressure. As a result, the entry price of these investors — in this case, $99,000 — becomes major resistance, both psychologically and technically.  Long-Term Whales’ Average Cost At $39K  In a separate post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Arab Chain revealed the average cost basis across varying cohorts of Bitcoin’s investors. As the new whales hold through their unrealized losses, the Binance user deposit addresses metric tells a fascinating story. According to the analyst, the average holding cost on Binance is approximately $52,691, indicating that a good portion of Bitcoin’s traders are doing so while enjoying their profit. Interestingly, the Miner Whales are not left out of this comfort zone. This group of holders, who have more than 1,000 BTC stowed away, has an average holding cost of $58,681. Considering that price is well above their cost basis, it suggests that Bitcoin miners are also in deep profit. As a result, there will be expectedly minimal selling pressure from this faction of the market.  For Bitcoin’s Long-term Holder whales, the story is more rosy. These investors are holding their coins with an average acquisition cost of $39,681. As is intuitively obvious, this group of BTC holders is also operating within clear bounds of profit. Ultimately, it is clear that Bitcoin has a structurally bullish outlook, with unshaking investor support. If downside momentum were to enter the market, it would likely be short-term, as its oldest traders appear to be under no pressure to shave off their holdings. If retracements sponsored by these investors occur, it would likely be as a result of light profit-taking, rather than capitulation events. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $90,624, with no significant movement since the past day. Related Reading: Analyst Breaks Down Why Investors will Make More Money With XRP Than Bitcoin Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After a fairly optimistic start to the new year, the Bitcoin price might finally be ready to take off, as revealed by a market analyst. The pundit believes that the flagship cryptocurrency can reclaim its six-figure valuation over the next few weeks, particularly as a key technical indicator has turned bullish. Why BTC Price Could Be Headed For $105,000 In Three Weeks In a January 9 post on the social media platform X, pseudonymous crypto pundit Bitbull shared a positive outlook for the Bitcoin price in the coming weeks. According to the crypto analyst, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could return to around $103,000 and $105,000 in the next three to four weeks. Related Reading: Cathie Wood: Trump May Buy Bitcoin For US Reserve Ahead Of Midterms This optimistic prediction is based on changes in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the Bitcoin weekly chart. The relative strength index is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to assess the magnitude and speed of an asset’s price changes. The RSI oscillator typically analyzes whether a crypto asset (Bitcoin, in this case) is being overbought or oversold, suggesting a possible price or trend reversal. When the relative strength index rises above 70, it usually suggests an overbought market condition, with the asset’s price likely to witness a bearish reversal. On the other hand, an RSI value below the 30 mark means that the market is oversold, with the price potentially reaching a bottom. BitBull revealed that the Bitcoin weekly RSI has been in an extended decline in the past three months and has only just broken above the downward trend line. According to the market pundit, the technical indicator is signaling further upside for the Bitcoin price. As observed in the chart above, the price of Bitcoin went on a significant rally the last time the weekly RSI broke out of a downward trend. This breakout last occurred in April 2025, preceding BTC’s rally to its current all-time high of $126,080, representing an almost 50% surge. This time around, BitBull expects the Bitcoin price to rise to between $103,000 and $105,000 in the course of the next three to four weeks. Hitting this target would represent an approximately 15% rally from the current price point. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC sits around $90,600, reflecting an almost 1% decline in the past 24 hours. While the premier cryptocurrency made a strong start to the year, the market has since cooled down. The Bitcoin price has been mostly hovering around the $90,000 mark, with only a few runs above $91,000 in the past week. According to data from TradingView, the BTC price is up by 3% so far in 2026. Related Reading: CVDD Model Signals Bitcoin Is Not Yet Deeply Undervalued: Drawdown Lags Historical Cycles Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is presently trading around the $90,000 price mark after a recent failure to break past $94,000 price barrier. Notably, the move suggests hesitation from buyers near recent highs, but not yet a confirmed breakdown of positive price momentum.  According to the popular market analyst with X username KillaXBT, Bitcoin is at a critical junction with equal potential for a bullish or bearish market outcome. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks Drop To $69,000 If Pennant Support Breaks, Analyst Warns Bitcoin Eyes $94,000 Retest, But $87,000 Price Drop Remains Feasible In an X post on January 9, KillaXBT explains that the Bitcoin price structure remains quite clean despite recent volatile movements. This is because the price is still reacting clearly to well-defined technical levels, making near-term scenarios easier to outline. According to the presented analysis, $90,000 represents a pivotal price level that presently acts as near-term price support.  In addition, this level aligns with a CME futures gap, an area traders often watch for potential price reactions. In a bearish scenario where Bitcoin loses the support at $90,000, KillaXBT explains that the next price floor sits around $87,500, which corresponds to the 2026 yearly open (YO). If that level fails, price could slide further toward $86,800, an area identified as demand, where buyers are expected to step in more aggressively. The realization of this bearish pathway would confirm that Bitcoin continues to suffer rejection from higher prices and reinforce short-term weakness. On the other hand, if Bitcoin continues to hold above $90,000, KillaXBT states it would signal acceptance at current levels, meaning the market is comfortable trading here rather than initiating a rejection. In that case, Bitcoin could retest supply near the $94,000–$95,000 range, where sellers previously capped the rally. While there is potential for another rejection at this level, this bullish scenario would suggest consolidation rather than distribution. Related Reading: Solana Accumulation Narrative Strengthens With Big Institutions, A Rally Imminent? Bitcoin Headed For $75,000 If Condition Fails In a separate post, KillaXBT shares further insights on Bitcoin price structure. Notably, the analyst reveals they continue to maintain a short position they opened around $93,900. However, they still expect the asset to push above recent highs at some point, indicating they are not permanently bearish. However, if Bitcoin is unable to create a lower high in the next 30 days, KillaXBT forecasts a free price fall to $75,000, suggesting a potential 16.67% decline from current market prices. At press time, Bitcoin exchanges hands at $90,500, reflecting a price loss of 0.76% in the past day. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 11.6% and valued at $38.95 billion. Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $1.8 trillion, representing 58.5% of the total market cap. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview

Crypto expert Plan C has alluded to the business cycle to explain why the Bitcoin top isn’t in despite the flagship crypto’s run to $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, having lost most of its gains from the start of the year.  Why The Bitcoin Top Isn’t In Yet Based On The Business Cycle In an X post, Plan C suggested that it doesn’t make sense to call the Bitcoin top when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the bull market peak hasn’t occurred.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Plan C was reacting to an X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also indicated that the Bitcoin top wasn’t yet in. The analyst noted that the ISM PMI was still 47.9, below 50. Based on this, Sminston remarked that the spring was still coiling, with his accompanying chart showing that the BTC price records a parabolic rally once the ISM PMI breaks above 50.  The chart also showed that the Bitcoin price could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could then mark the bull market peak for BTC and the broader crypto market as Plan C suggested. In the meantime, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, with other macro data painting a mixed picture for the flagship crypto. The latest U.S. jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish for the crypto market.  BTC Needs To Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery According to a Glassnode report, the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery would be a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode claims this would signal renewed confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward more constructive trend dynamics.  Related Reading: Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns Glassnode further noted that as attention turns to whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the broader structure is starting to resemble earlier transitional failures. This is similar to the Q1 2022 period, with BTC’s prolonged inability to recover above this level materially increasing the risk of a deeper bearish extension.  The on-chain analytics platform added that if the BTC price remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to erode. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover said to have occurred between 2021 and 2022, before the BTC price topped.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has been consolidating since late November, struggling to establish a clear directional bias as the market searches for stability ahead of the next volatility wave. After failing to sustain momentum above the October 2025 highs, price action has shifted into a broad range, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors. While some market participants interpret this pause as a potential base for continuation, others remain cautious, pointing to historical bear market behavior for context. Related Reading: Bitcoin Remains In A High-Risk Zone As Short-Term Holders Stay Underwater According to a report by top analyst Axel Adler, the current Bitcoin drawdown from the October peak remains historically shallow. The Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns chart, which compares drawdown depth across cycles since 2011, highlights how different this cycle has been so far. In the ongoing 2025+ cycle, the drawdown stands at roughly −27%, with the maximum correction reaching about −33%. By contrast, previous bear markets were far more severe: the 2011 cycle collapsed by −92%, both the 2013–2015 and 2017–2018 cycles saw drawdowns near −82%, and the 2021–2022 bear market bottomed around −75%. This relative resilience may point to a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. The growing presence of spot ETFs and institutional capital could be dampening volatility and reducing the magnitude of corrections. Still, Adler cautions that the current bear phase is relatively young. As a result, it remains too early to conclude that Bitcoin has definitively entered a new regime where deep drawdowns are no longer part of the cycle. Bitcoin Still Trades Above Long-Term On-Chain Fair Value Adler further explains that the Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model offers critical context for evaluating where the market currently sits within the broader cycle. CVDD is a long-term on-chain valuation framework derived from “destroyed” coin days, which captures periods when older, long-held coins are spent. Historically, this behavior has been closely associated with major market transitions and macro bottoms. The CVDD chart plots Bitcoin’s price against several valuation bands, including the base CVDD level and its 5x and 10x multiples. At present, Bitcoin is trading near $91,000, which places it at roughly 2x above the base CVDD, currently estimated at around $46,600. This zone has historically aligned with bear market bottom formation phases rather than full capitulation events. In past cycles, deep undervaluation and panic selling typically occurred when the price approached or briefly dipped below the base CVDD level. The fact that Bitcoin remains well above this fundamental support suggests that the market has not yet entered a true capitulation regime. Instead, long-term holders appear largely intact, and selling pressure from older coins remains relatively contained. As Adler notes, the base CVDD level continues to act as a long-term structural floor for the asset. Taken together, the shallow drawdown profile and Bitcoin’s position above key CVDD valuation bands indicate that the ongoing correction is real but still consistent with an early-stage bear cycle, rather than a fully developed market bottom. Related Reading: Bearish Signal Emerges For Ethereum As US Spot Demand Fades BTC Consolidates As Structure Remains Weak Bitcoin price continues to trade in a tight consolidation range after the sharp sell-off from the October highs, with the chart showing BTC hovering around the $90,000–$91,000 area. This zone has acted as a short-term equilibrium following the aggressive breakdown from above $100,000, but the broader technical structure remains weak. Price is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are both sloping downward, reinforcing the idea that the dominant trend has shifted from bullish to corrective. The recent bounce from the December lows near $86,000 lacked strong follow-through, suggesting that demand remains cautious rather than aggressive. While buyers have managed to defend higher lows in the short term, each upside attempt has been capped near the descending moving averages, highlighting persistent overhead supply. Related Reading: XRP Sees Back-to-Back Liquidation Waves: Binance Absorbs Majority Of Liquidations Volume has also declined during the consolidation phase, signaling a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin appears to be forming a basing pattern rather than initiating a reversal. Holding above the $88,000–$90,000 support zone is critical to avoid a deeper retracement toward the mid-$80,000s. However, a sustained recovery would require a decisive reclaim of the $95,000–$98,000 region, where key moving averages converge. The current price action is best interpreted as consolidation within a broader corrective phase rather than the start of a new uptrend. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

After a robust start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered significant resistance that has hindered its recovery trajectory, resulting in a brief dip below the $90,000 mark over the last few days. As analysts evaluate the situation, they have identified crucial levels that will influence Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. Critical Bitcoin Price Levels In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Ted Pillows outlined three critical price points for Bitcoin in the short-term price action. The first key level to monitor is $89,200, which has served as a vital support.  Should the Bitcoin price fall below this threshold, Ted Pillows predicts a subsequent drop toward the $87,500 level. But beyond this, Pillows cautioned that if the $87,500 support is lost on a daily basis, it could signal a significant downward trend for the cryptocurrency’s price in the near-term. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report On the upside, the analyst suggested that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $94,000 to $95,000 range to establish a positive momentum. Notably, a daily close above this level could pave the way for BTC to reach between $102,000 and $103,000.  Similarly, fellow analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the importance of the cryptocurrency’s price in maintaining its position above $87,200 to avoid a potential decline toward $69,230, which implies a potential 24% drop if this scenario materializes.  Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a slight uptick, reaching $91,390 at the time of writing, partly due to the US Supreme Court’s decision to delay a ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs case, an event anticipated to bring volatility to the cryptocurrency market. Bitfinex Whales’ Moves  Beyond technical analysis, there is a developing trend that many have overlooked. Bitfinex whales are apparently unwinding their BTC long holdings aggressively. Analysts such as Ash Crypto point out that this type of “unwind” has traditionally preceded significant market turbulence.  During a similar event in early 2025, the Bitcoin price stalled around the $74,000 level but subsequently experienced a major recovery rally of approximately 50%, surging to the $112,000 mark within just 43 days. Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils Ash noted that this could suggest that a similar pattern could unfold potentially this month, targeting price levels of $135,000 or more in the near term, which could result in a new all-time high for the market’s leading cryptocurrency.  According to analysts, Bitfinex whales successfully relieve market pressure brought on by sizable clusters of long holdings when they “clear the books.” By lowering the market’s targets, price-hunting algorithms can more easily change the direction upward. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The notorious crypto crash on October 10 of last year sent shockwaves through the market, resulting in the largest liquidation event in history with nearly $20 billion in losses. This catastrophic event ignited significant criticisms and fears among investors regarding the stability of the cryptocurrency market.  However, the upcoming crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, is being touted as a potential safeguard against future crashes. Market Manipulation In Crypto Could Plummet  Market expert Crypto Rover recently took to social media to express optimism about the CLARITY Act as the Senate prepares for a markup on January 15. According to Rover, this crypto bill could reduce market manipulation in the crypto space by an impressive 70% to 80%.  Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils He noted the devastating effects of the October 10 event, describing it as a “massacre” for crypto holders, many of whom lost their life savings without clear answers about who was ultimately responsible for the chaos. Rover is confident that with the implementation of the CLARITY Act, the cryptocurrency market could begin operating more like traditional financial markets (TradFi).  Institutional Investment Set To Surge  Once the CLARITY Act passes in the Senate, Rover asserts that it will move to the floor for a full vote before returning to the House for final approval and eventually reaching President Trump’s desk.  He further suggested that this entire process could take one to two months, potentially allowing the CLARITY Act to be signed into law by March 2026. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report Should this come to fruition, it is expected to open the floodgates for institutional investment in the crypto market, fundamentally changing the alleged “daily market manipulation” witnessed in the sector.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,357, having erased some of the gains seen at the beginning of the week when the market’s leading crypto surged towards a two-month high of $94,800.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could risk a crash to $69,230 if the support level of this Bear Pennant doesn’t hold up. Bitcoin Might Need To Hold Above $87,200 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a support level that BTC might have to hold in order to avoid a steep drop. The level in question is the lower line of a Bear Pennant. A Pennant is a pattern from technical analysis (TA) that’s similar to a Flag. Both of these patterns are characterized by an initial sharp move (commonly known as the “pole”) and a subsequent phase of consolidation. But unlike Flags, which involve a parallel consolidation channel, Pennants involve a triangular channel instead. Related Reading: $460M Crypto Longs Squeezed As Bitcoin Slips Below $90,000 When the price is trading inside the consolidation portion of the Pennant, it encounters resistance at the upper line and support at the lower one. A breakout of either of these levels may signal a sustained move in that direction. Pennants are generally considered to be continuation patterns, so a move may be more likely to take place in the same direction as the pole. In a Bear Pennant, the pole is represented by a downward move, implying that a bearish continuation could succeed the pattern. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Bear Pennant that Bitcoin has been trading inside on the daily timeframe over the last couple of months: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin retested the upper line of the Pennant’s consolidation region when its price surged above $94,000. This retest ended up in rejection, and the coin has since retraced to lower levels. If the current trajectory in the cryptocurrency continues, it’s possible that a retest of the support level could take place, which is situated around $87,200. Since the pattern involved here is a Bear Pennant, BTC failing a retest of this line could signal a bearish breakout. Pennant breakouts are usually considered to lead to a move that’s similar to the pole in length. Based on this, BTC’s breakout target from the current pattern could lie near $69,000. “Bitcoin $BTC must hold above $87,200 to avoid a drop toward $69,230,” explained the analyst. Bitcoin is currently also trading near an important on-chain level: the Active Realized Price. This indicator keeps track of the average cost basis of the active network participants. According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Active Realized Price is located at $87,700 right now, meaning that the active investors are in a slight amount of net profit. Related Reading: CryptoQuant CEO Expects Boring Bitcoin Action, Not Major Crash BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,400, up more than 1% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

As the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s (BTC) near-term direction, one Wall Street analyst is standing firm in his bullish outlook. He predicts that Bitcoin could soon enter a price discovery, underscoring its value beyond being a payment currency to a market leader and one of the best-performing assets that could eventually reach gold’s market capitalization. Analyst Stays Bullish On Bitcoin Despite Price Instability In a recent interview with CNBC, William Blair’s fintech equity analyst Andrew Jeffrey said recent price swings do not change his long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s recovery and future value. CNBC opened the discussion by pointing out that crypto started the year on a stronger note than Q4 2025, rising about 5% before giving back more than 2% after a sharp rally.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Strongest XRP Price Rally In History Is Coming, Here’s Why When asked what was happening beneath the surface of Bitcoin’s latest moves, Jeffrey said its behavior reflects the nature of an immature asset. He explained that BTC has a market capitalization of more than $1.9 trillion. Yet, roughly one-third of the total supply is controlled by a small group of wallets, roughly estimated at 2 million.  The Wall Street analyst stated that this supply concentration creates instability, especially during periods of market stress. He added that recent buyers, particularly retail investors entering through ETFs, tend to have weaker conviction and are more likely to sell during downturns.  According to Jeffrey, these sell-offs can feed on themselves, leading to sharper declines. He said the current environment is broadly risk off, but emphasized that he sees this phase as temporary. The Wall Street analyst also highlighted his belief that Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as a store of value. He stated that BTC could eventually challenge gold’s role in that category and move closer to the precious metal’s market cap, which is currently about 15x larger than Bitcoin’s today.  While optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook, Jeffrey made it clear that he does not see it becoming a dominant payment tool. Instead, he stated that stablecoins like Circle’s USDC are more suited for transactions. The analyst emphasized that price discovery is still underway and that BTC’s long-term potential remains intact despite recent market turbulence.   Bitcoin Still Needs To Lead For Crypto To Rise  In the interview, Jeffrey spoke with CNBC about fading excitement around Bitcoin as newer crypto stories attract attention. CNBC raised concerns that BTC feels like old news as prices hover and interest shifts towards more interesting news surrounding companies like Ripple.   Related Reading: XRP Mirrors Gold’s Trajectory: What A Similar ATH Rally Would Mean Jeffrey replied that Bitcoin’s short-term price action is driven by investor psychology, while its long-term performance tells a different story. He highlighted that Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in the world over the past decade and said investors need to maintain that perspective.  CNBC also questioned whether crypto growth could now occur without Bitcoin leading the way. The Wall Street analyst responded that it would be very hard for the crypto market to see sustained gains without BTC at the forefront.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price could be in for more pain as a crypto analyst has just released a gloomy short-term outlook, warning that another crash may be on the way. The analyst believes that Bitcoin’s overall market structure remains bearish. As a result, he expects the price to fall to about $76,000, representing a 20% decline from current levels.  Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 20% Crash Crypto market analyst Roman has issued a warning that Bitcoin could be heading for another sharp decline, with his primary target set near $76,000. In his post on X, he emphasized that the current market structure shows no evidence of a sustainable price bottom and that downside risk remains dominant.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Crash Another 50% As Analyst Marks $40,000 Bottom Target Roman explained that his bearish outlook is based on the daily timeframe, where Bitcoin has struggled to regain strong bullish momentum after a significant correction. He also noted that the price is still trading within a broader bearish trend, suggesting the market may simply be taking a pause before the next move lower.  The accompanying chart shows BTC trading above $90,000 while still well below the previous resistance area near $96,000. Each attempt to push higher has been rejected, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control of the market.   Notably, Roman’s chart has revealed that the expected move lower could start with a drop back to the mid $80,000s, followed by a deeper slide between $78,500 and $75,000. The hand-drawn projection on the chart also illustrates a sharp fall after a brief relief rally, suggesting that BTC’s decline could speed up once support breaks.  Volume behavior also plays a key role in Roman’s bearish outlook. The chart shows noticeably weak trading volume during Bitcoin’s recent rebound, which the analyst previously said is typical of holiday-driven pumps.  Additional Signals That Support Analyst’s Bearish Forecast Roman’s $76,000 Bitcoin crash forecast is a follow-up to previous posts in which he explained several reasons why the leading cryptocurrency is in a bear market and could correct again soon. He referenced historical indicator behavior to justify his latest prediction.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash To $25,000: Why The Bottom Is Much Lower The analyst explained that Bitcoin’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) were extremely oversold after its price dropped roughly 40% from its all-time high. As a result, the current consolidation has given these indicators a chance to reset.  Roman sees the lack of strong buying pressure during this reset as a warning sign. He stressed that a true bullish reversal would need rising volume and clear higher highs, which are not showing on the daily chart. The analyst also noted that Bitcoin’s longer-term trend remains bearish, with the market continuing to form lower highs within a declining range. He has concluded that until clear reversal signals appear, traders should treat any upside moves as corrective, not the start of a fresh bull run. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Data shows the crypto derivatives market has faced a fresh wave of liquidations as Bitcoin and other assets have gone through a retrace. Crypto Market Has Seen Liquidations Of More Than $462 Million According to data from CoinGlass, a notable amount of liquidations have occurred in the crypto derivatives market over the past day. “Liquidation” refers to the forceful closure that any open contract undergoes after it has amassed losses of a certain percentage specified by the platform. Related Reading: CryptoQuant CEO Expects Boring Bitcoin Action, Not Major Crash A mass amount of simultaneous liquidations can occur when the asset’s price observes a sharp price swing, not allowing investors the time to close their positions. The risk of this happening can increase depending on how much leverage traders are opting for. The trigger for the derivatives flush in the past day has been a downward move across tokens in the digital asset sector, which took Bitcoin to a low under $89,600. Below is a table that shows the numbers involved in this liquidation event. In total, the crypto market has witnessed over $462 million in liquidations during the last 24 hours, with longs dominating most of the flush. More specifically, bullish bets made up for $418 million of the positions involved, representing more than 90% of the total. The large amount of liquidations could indicate that the recovery in Bitcoin above $94,000 lured traders into opening fresh longs, which then ended up getting caught out by the price plunge. In terms of the symbols, the largest contributor to the liquidation event has been BTC with $132 million in positions involved, while Ethereum hasn’t been too far behind with a flush of $116 million. Interestingly, while the top two have been predictable, the third place hasn’t been occupied by the usual suspects this time. As the above heatmap displays, contracts related to Zcash (ZEC) have been caught up in liquidations of $24 million. The asset managing higher liquidations than the likes of XRP and Solana could be down to the fact that it has seen a notably sharper drop over the last 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bounce A Bull Trap? Analyst Sees 2022-Style Bear Flag The latest liquidation squeeze has come as the futures market has been witnessing a re-expansion of Open Interest, as highlighted by Glassnode in its latest weekly report. The bearish price action between October and November had caused a massive amount of liquidations and forced traders to pull back on risk, resulting in the Open Interest taking a significant hit. Recently, the metric has seen a turnaround, implying investors have gradually been building up positions again. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,500, down 2% over the past day. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a downside correction below $92,500. BTC is now struggling and might face barriers for a fresh increase near $92,000. Bitcoin started a downside correction and traded below the $91,200 zone. The price is trading below $91,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $92,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Attempts Recovery Bitcoin price failed to stay above $93,500 and started a downside correction. BTC dipped below $93,000 and $92,000 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even dipped below $91,200 and tested $90,000. A low was formed at $89,225 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above $90,500. The price climbed higher to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $90,300, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $91,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $92,000 level, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,771 swing high to the $89,225 low. The next resistance could be $92,800. A close above the $92,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $93,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $90,650 level. The first major support is near the $90,300 level. The next support is now near the $89,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $88,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $87,250, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $90,650, followed by $90,300. Major Resistance Levels – $91,500 and $92,000.

The founder of CryptoQuant doesn’t think Bitcoin will see a major crash of more than 50% like past bear markets and instead sees sideways action ahead. Bitcoin Has Seen A Slowdown In Realized Cap Recently In a new post on X, CrypotQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up recently. The on-chain indicator that Young Ju has cited is the “Realized Cap,” which measures the cryptocurrency’s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the last time that it changed hands. In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the total amount of capital that the investors of the asset as a whole have put into the network. Changes in the metric, therefore, signify the exit or entry of capital relative to BTC. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap enjoyed sharp growth between late 2023 and late 2025, indicating that the coin was receiving continuous injections of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bounce A Bull Trap? Analyst Sees 2022-Style Bear Flag Recently, however, the uptrend in the indicator has seemingly broken, with its value facing a small net decline. In the past, bull markets have coincided with an upward trajectory in the Realized Cap, with a transition to weak inflows or net outflows leading into bearish phases. Considering that the metric’s trend is now hinting at the latter type of market conditions, it’s possible that a bearish transition might be occurring for the cryptocurrency. That said, the analyst has pointed out that the latest cycle isn’t the same as the ones from before. “Liquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is pointless,” noted Young Ju. “Institutions holding long-term killed the old whale-retail sell cycle.” Examples of demand channels that didn’t exist before include treasury companies like Strategy and investment vehicles like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “I don’t think we’ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,” said the CryptoQuant founder. “Just boring sideways for the next few months.” It now remains to be seen what trajectory Bitcoin will end up following. In some other news, on-chain demand as gauged by the Realized Cap isn’t the only one that has declined recently. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post, demand from retail investors has also been missing. In the chart, the metric shown is the 30-day percentage change in the volume associated with the retail investors, the smallest of hands on the network. This indicator has been negative lately, implying that the volume of transactions valued at less $10,000 has been declining on a monthly timeframe. Related Reading: Solana ETF Volume Explodes: Anomaly Or New Normal? This hasn’t changed even after the recent recovery surge in Bitcoin. “The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,900, up 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $90,000 level after a sharp rejection from the $94,000 resistance zone, keeping market sentiment sharply divided. While some analysts argue that BTC is entering a deeper corrective phase, others believe the pullback is a necessary reset before a renewed upside attempt. The current price action reflects this uncertainty, with volatility rising as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance While $4.7B In Sell-Side Liquidity Builds According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s short-term risk structure remains fragile. His short-term risk chart places BTC below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently estimated near $100,200. Price is also trading beneath all major moving averages, including the 128-day, 200-day, and 365-day SMAs, reinforcing the view that the broader structure is still bearish. At current levels around $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a moderate risk zone, positioned between the STH Cost Basis and the -15% downside boundary. This positioning suggests that recent rebounds should be treated cautiously. Until BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis, upside moves are more likely to represent technical bounces within a downward trend rather than a confirmed reversal. Conversely, a breakdown below the moderate risk boundary would signal rising downside risk and could accelerate selling pressure. As a result, the $90K–$100K range remains a critical battleground for Bitcoin’s next directional move. STH Losses Continue To Cap Bitcoin’s Upside Adler’s analysis also highlights a second critical framework: the chart tracking Bitcoin’s all-time highs alongside euphoria zones and the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator. This metric measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average realized price of coins held by short-term investors, offering a direct view into the profitability—and behavior—of this highly reactive cohort. At present, STH MVRV sits near 0.92, well below its historical mean of roughly 1.09 and decisively under the neutral level of 1.0. In practical terms, this implies that the average short-term holder is holding an unrealized loss of about 8%. Historically, periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have tended to coincide with either capitulation phases or extended consolidation ranges, rather than sustained bullish expansions. The last clear euphoria zone on this chart appeared during the all-time high update in October 2025, underscoring how far current conditions are from a speculative extreme. As long as STH MVRV remains below breakeven, short-term holders are incentivized to sell into rallies as the price approaches their cost basis. This behavior creates persistent overhead supply and reinforces structural resistance near the STH Cost Basis, close to the $100,000 level. Consequently, reclaiming that zone is not just a psychological milestone but a necessary condition for any meaningful regime shift back to a bullish market structure. Related Reading: XRP Sees Back-to-Back Liquidation Waves: Binance Absorbs Majority Of Liquidations Bitcoin Price Recovery Lacks Confirmation Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects a market still trapped in a fragile recovery attempt after a sharp rejection from higher levels. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 area, BTC experienced a decisive sell-off that pushed the price back toward the $85,000 zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This reaction marked a short-term bottom, but the subsequent rebound has so far lacked structural strength. At present, Bitcoin is trading near the $90,000–$91,000 region, a former support that has now turned into a key pivot. Price remains below the 200-day and 365-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The 128-day moving average has also capped recent upside attempts, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains corrective rather than impulsively bullish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Accumulation Regime: Market Supported By Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Surge From a structure standpoint, the chart shows a sequence of lower highs since the October peak, suggesting that sellers continue to control the macro trend. Volume expanded notably during the November–December sell-off, while the current bounce is unfolding on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies that the move higher may be more short-covering driven than supported by strong spot demand. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the $94,000–$95,000 resistance zone with increasing volume, the risk of another rejection remains elevated. Failure to do so could reopen the path toward the $85,000 support, where the market would once again be forced to prove its underlying strength. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050.  The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy.  Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions. The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability. Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case.  ‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’ In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR.  Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide. Related Reading: GENIUS Act Key Provisions In Spotlight: XRP Attorney Deaton Alerts To Bankers’ Role For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR.  In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has absorbed a sharp sell-off and stabilized at key support, signaling that buyers are firmly in control. With the market holding its structure, insights from Quantum Models suggest that Wave (3) is underway, pointing toward a near-term target around $104,000. Q-Structure Confluence Holds Firm, Keeping The Bullish Bias Alive Elliott Chart, in a recent update, highlighted that Bitcoin remains firmly supported around the Q-Structure λ₅ confluence zone, a level that continues to underpin the broader bullish outlook. This support area has absorbed selling pressure, suggesting that larger participants are still defending key levels despite recent volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dips Further, Setting Up a High-Stakes Support Moment Upon closer examination of market structure, the recent pullback is now being classified as a complex corrective phase rather than the beginning of a larger downtrend. Specifically, the correction is interpreted as Intermediate Wave (2), unfolding through a Zigzag W | Zigzag X | Triangle Y setup.  With this corrective pattern largely resolved, Elliott Chart highlights that Intermediate Wave (3) is now in progress, with Minor Waves 1 and 2 already taking shape. This suggests the market is building the foundation for a more decisive move higher. The critical piece still developing is an impulsive Minor Wave 3. Historically, this wave tends to be the strongest and most aggressive part of an advance. If it unfolds as expected, the model points to a near-term Q-Target around $104,444, generated using the Q-Structure λᵣ projection. This bullish scenario is derived from insights within the Quantum Models framework and is not based on short-term noise. Notably, this potential trend reversal was first projected back on November 15, during Bitcoin’s decline. Sharp Flush Finds Strong Demand At Key Levels Delving into current price actions, CyrilXBT disclosed that Bitcoin experienced a sharp flush but found buyers precisely at a critical support level, allowing the price to stabilize and gradually grind higher. This reaction indicates that the recent sell-off was absorbed by strong demand rather than driven by panic selling, reflecting healthy market participation from buyers at key zones. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Recovery Extends Into 2026 as Charts Hint at Another Leg Higher This type of price action highlights absorption, not fear. What stands out most is the higher-low structure that has emerged following the drop. This formation is important because it signals that downside pressure is weakening. As long as Bitcoin continues to hold within this reclaimed range, the risk of a deeper sell-off diminishes, and the market maintains the potential for further upward moves. Sideways or consolidating price action at these levels is constructive for the overall crypto market. Maintaining this structure sets the stage for a healthier, more sustainable advance for Bitcoin rather than a rushed or volatile rebound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how the recent Bitcoin price action could echo the bear flag formation from the 2021-22 period. Bitcoin May Be Inside A Bear Flag Right Now In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted a similarity that has been emerging between the Bitcoin price trend from 2021-22 and that from 2025-26. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Nears Neutral As Price Recovers Below is the chart shared by Martinez that puts the two periods side-by-side. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin saw a 54% drawdown during the first half of 2021, before witnessing another leg of the bull run to a new all-time high (ATH) above $69,000 later in the year. This high was followed by a bearish shift, with the price quickly sliding off as 2022 arrived. In 2022, the cryptocurrency observed consolidation inside a technical analysis (TA) pattern known as a Bear Flag. As the name suggests, Flag patterns look like a flag on a pole. In the case of a Bear Flag, the setup is oriented in the reverse direction; an initial sharp downward move represents the “pole,” while a parallel consolidation channel makes up for the “flag.” When the asset is trading inside the flag, it finds support at the lower level of the channel and resistance at the upper one. A break out of either of these bounds can signal a sustained move in that direction. Flags are considered to be continuation patterns, meaning that breakouts from them are likely to lead into the same direction as the preceding price trend. That is, a breakout could occur in the same direction as the pole. From the chart, it’s apparent that this appears to be what happened with Bitcoin back in 2022, with the price escaping downward from the Bear Flag with a sharp crash. Jumping to the recent Bitcoin price action, the cryptocurrency saw a similar trajectory in 2025 as in 2021, with an initial leg of the bull run leading to a second one that resulted in a new ATH (this time above $126,000). One difference, however, was that the legs of this bull market were separated by a price decline of just 30%. Since the latest record, BTC has once again faced a bearish transition, with its price plummeting to a low in November and beginning a period of consolidation. The analyst thinks that the latest phase of sideways movement could be occurring inside a Bear Flag, similar to the one from 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Improve, But Signal Still Not Decisive: Glassnode It now remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is indeed similar this time around as well or if the two cycles will diverge. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a setback in its recovery as its price has dropped back to $91,000. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has struggled to break through the $94,000 level and is now attempting to stabilize above the $90,000 mark, a zone that has become critical for short-term structure. While bulls are making an effort to defend recent gains, the broader market context remains fragile, with several risk factors limiting upside conviction. Price action reflects a market caught between relief-driven buying and persistent sell-side pressure near major resistance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Accumulation Regime: Market Supported By Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Surge A recent CryptoQuant analysis highlights that Bitcoin is currently testing an important technical and on-chain confluence. On the daily timeframe, BTC has managed a strong rebound from the Point of Control (POC) around $85,000, an area that previously concentrated significant trading volume. This recovery pushed price back into the $92,000–$94,000 supply zone, where sellers have consistently stepped in. From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that bullish pressure is building, signaling improving short-term sentiment. However, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. Key flow and positioning metrics indicate that the market may be approaching a zone where distribution risk increases, especially if buyers fail to absorb available supply. This divergence between improving technical momentum and warning signals from on-chain indicators places Bitcoin at a pivotal moment. Whether BTC can consolidate above $90,000 or faces renewed rejection will likely define the next directional move, making this level critical for traders and investors alike. Rising Sell-Side Risk at Key Resistance Levels The report explains that Bitcoin is currently trading just below a major technical resistance block, highlighted as a critical supply zone. Price has entered this area multiple times, but each attempt has lacked the conviction needed for a clean breakout. Historically, when Bitcoin fails to decisively clear such resistance, the market often responds with a liquidity sweep toward lower levels, targeting areas where unfilled demand remains. On-chain data reinforces this technical caution. An analysis of Binance’s exchange netflow over the past seven days reveals a sharp increase in assets moving onto the exchange. Bitcoin net inflows reached approximately $3.6 billion, while Ethereum saw an additional $1.15 billion. Combined, this represents roughly $4.75 billion in potential sell-side pressure entering centralized venues in a short period. Related Reading: XRP Shows “Coiled Spring” Setup As Network Liquidity Hits Record Levels This creates a clear divergence. While price action suggests an attempt to break higher, the rapid expansion of exchange reserves points to a different dynamic beneath the surface. Large holders and institutions may be positioning to sell into strength or establish short exposure near resistance, rather than supporting a sustained upside move. The timing is critical. The convergence of heavy inflows with Bitcoin testing the $92,000–$94,000 range skews risk to the downside in the short term. Unless buyers can absorb this supply and secure a strong daily close above $94,000, the probability of a pullback toward the $85,000 Point of Control remains elevated. Bitcoin Consolidates Below Key Weekly Resistance Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows price stabilizing after a volatile correction, with BTC currently trading around the $92,000 area. The recent rebound followed a sharp drawdown from the $120,000 region, where strong selling pressure emerged and broke the previous bullish structure. Since then, the price has entered a consolidation phase, attempting to build a base above former support turned resistance. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is still trading below the weekly 50-period moving average, which now acts as a dynamic resistance around the mid-$90,000s. This level has capped upside attempts so far, indicating that bulls have not yet regained full control. At the same time, the weekly 100-period moving average continues to slope upward well below the current price, suggesting that the broader macro trend remains constructive despite the correction. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows Price action over the last several weeks shows higher lows forming near the $85,000–$88,000 zone, signaling that buyers are stepping in on dips. Volume has decreased compared to the distribution phase near the highs, which is typical during consolidation periods and suggests selling pressure is easing rather than accelerating. However, the structure remains fragile. A failure to reclaim and hold above the $95,000–$98,000 range could keep Bitcoin trapped in a broader corrective range. Conversely, a decisive weekly close above the 50-week moving average would improve the technical outlook and increase the probability of a renewed push toward the $105,000–$110,000 area. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Morgan Stanley’s filing for a Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), coupled with MSCI’s decision to retain digital asset companies in its index, has ignited a wave of speculation among analysts. Notably, analysts from Bull Theory have alleged that these events could be indicative of a larger-scale market manipulation. Bitcoin Market Manipulation?  In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the Bull Theory analysts drew attention to the timeline of events involving Bitcoin, arguing that the trajectory from its October crash to its subsequent recovery in January resembles an orchestrated setup supported by data. The first significant trigger occurred on 10 October, when MSCI — previously a division of Morgan Stanley — proposed removing Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from its global indexes.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues: Strategy Purchases 1,287 BTC Amid Rising Prices This decision would affect firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, which hold substantial Bitcoin assets on their balance sheets. The implications were profound, given that MSCI’s indexes guide trillions of dollars in passive investments.  If these companies were removed, institutional investors, including pension funds and ETFs, would be compelled to divest, leading to a substantial contraction in institutional exposure to Bitcoin and an immediate tightening of liquidity.  Following that announcement, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by nearly $18,000, wiping out over $900 billion from the total crypto market cap. Morgan Stanley And The MSCI Shift The uncertainty continued with a consultation period that remained open until December 31. This three-month window of prolonged anxiety effectively froze investor demand for Bitcoin.  Passive investors became wary, index-linked funds faced potential forced selling, and as a result, prices saw a stark decline—with Bitcoin dropping about 31% and altcoins suffering even more, marking the worst quarter for crypto markets since 2018. However, the tide began to shift on January 1, 2026, as Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge, rising 8% in just five days. This $7,300 increase, from $87,500 to $94,800, left many analysts puzzled, especially since the relentless selling had seemingly halted abruptly.  The analysts noted that this sudden upturn could imply that insiders might have had prior knowledge of forthcoming developments. Then, the narrative shifted dramatically on January 5 and 6. In a matter of 24 hours, Morgan Stanley unveiled its plans for spot Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana ETFs.  This was followed by MSCI announcing its decision not to proceed with the previously proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies from its indexes.  A Calculated Move?  The sequence of these events has led the analysts to present a narrative: MSCI initiated pressure by threatening index removals in October, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and suppressed prices.  Related Reading: Solana Shatters Records: 2025 Annual Review Reveals New All-Time Highs In Key Metrics Once institutions had accumulated at lower prices, Morgan Stanley introduced its ETF, and MSCI subsequently removed the threat of exclusion, raising serious concerns about the possibility of coordinated efforts to manipulate market conditions. Bull Theory analysts assert that as the market now transitions back towards liquidity, the same entities that potentially orchestrated the prior downturn may be strategically positioned to profit from the rebound.  At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $91,550, having retraced 2% from the $95,000 2-month high reached at the beginning of the week.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the sentiment among Bitcoin traders has seen a notable improvement recently as the market has gone through a recovery surge. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Near The Neutral Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the sentiment that’s held by the average trader in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. It determines the investor mentality using the data of these five factors: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Improve, But Signal Still Not Decisive: Glassnode The index uses a numerical scale running from zero to hundred for representing the sentiment. On this scale, all values below 47 correspond to a net sentiment of fear, while those above 53 to one of greed. Levels lying between the two thresholds represent a neutral mentality. Now, here is how the current Bitcoin sentiment is like, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the Fear & Greed Index has a value of 42 right now, suggesting a fearful sentiment is shared by the majority. However, the indicator’s value is quite close to the neutral region, so the dominance of fear isn’t too significant. Just a few days ago, this wasn’t the case, as the index was deep into the fear territory. In fact, the metric’s value was so low that it was inside a special zone called the extreme fear. The turn from extreme fear to the nearly-neutral level of today has come as Bitcoin and other digital assets have enjoyed a recovery rally. Given the trend, it’s possible that if the bullish market push continues, trader sentiment could return to the neutral territory, or even edge slightly into the greed zone. Historically, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to crowd expectations. The probability of an opposite move occurring may be considered the strongest inside the extreme areas of extreme fear (25 and under) and extreme greed (above 75), as they have been where major bottoms and tops have formed in the past. The bottom in November, which has acted as the low for Bitcoin so far, also formed when the market held a sentiment of extreme fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation: Data Shows Institutions Are Net Buyers Again Now that the Fear & Greed Index has edged to the neutral zone, though, sentiment may not be able to dictate where the market will head next, since traders currently don’t agree on a direction. In such an environment, the chances of a move occurring in either direction may be equally probable. BTC Price Bitcoin broke above $94,000 earlier in the week, but its price has seen a setback as it’s now back at $92,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com