THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

As the market volatility continues, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold its short-lived momentum and reclaim a key resistance level for the second time this week. Some market watchers have affirmed that the flagship crypto may continue to have a disappointing end-of-year rally and potentially reach new lows before the pain is over. Related Reading: Did Crypto Investors Stop Believing In The Four-Year Cycle? Analyst Weighs In New Lows Before A 2026 Recovery? On Thursday, Bitcoin attempted to break past a crucial level after surging 2.9% from its daily opening. The cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim $89,000-$90,000 area since the start-of-week correction, which sent the price to a two-week low of $85,145. Notably, the flagship crypto retested the crucial resistance area twice in the past 24 hours but has been rejected, falling back to the local lows. Market observer Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has been holding above the $85,000 support zone despite the volatility, which could lead to another retest of the key $90,000-$92,000 zone if it holds. However, if price break below local support zone, Bitcoin would likely see a retest of the November lows, around the $80,000 mark. Ted also pointed out that the cryptocurrency may be mirroring its Q1 2025 price action, which suggests that a price drop below the recent lows could happen. Per the chart, BTC briefly bounced in March from its early 2025 correction before recording a lower low in the next few weeks. This was then followed by the Q2 and Q3 recovery rallies that propelled the price to its latest all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. Now, Bitcoin displays a similar performance, currently recovering from the initial corrective phase. If history repeats, the flagship crypto could see a 10%-15% drop to the $74,000-$76,000 area in the coming weeks before kicking off a rally toward new highs in 2026, the analyst suggested. Bitcoin To Continue With ‘No Direction’ Similarly, Ali Martinez affirmed that the cryptocurrency is at an inflection point and risks dropping up to 20% if the $87,000 support doesn’t hold. He explained that BTC is breaking out of a bear flag, which could target the $70,000 level if selling pressure spikes. Meanwhile, another analyst considers that “sentiment [is] flipping based on every last daily candle colour.” Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has been trading within the $84,000-$93,500 for the past four weeks, “moving up and down in a choppy fashion, while trading in between these two larger levels.” To the trader, the next few weeks will continue to be “generally very choppy and lack direction” due to lower liquidity and trading volume during the holiday season. “I don’t think you’d be missing much if you log off and come back somewhere early January,” he added. Related Reading: XRP Price Must Defend This Level To Avoid 50% Breakdown, Analyst Warns On the contrary, analyst Crypto Jelle affirmed that despite the low-timeframe struggles, Bitcoin “still flat out refuses to drop lower, no matter how hard bears try.” He noted that price still sits “on a clear weekly support level” that has held since April, explaining that as long as this area holds, price can still reclaim the monthly opening, around the $90,300 area. As of this writing, BTC trades at $86,138 a 5.3% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Data shows Bitcoin and Ethereum have formed a divergence in the Funding Rate indicator, with traders going long on BTC, short on ETH. Bitcoin & Ethereum Funding Rates Are Showing Opposite Values In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the Funding Rate has developed for Bitcoin and Ethereum amid the latest market volatility. Related Reading: Ethereum Risks Slide To $2,000 If December Closes Below This Level: Analyst Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw some sudden price swings during the past day, with BTC’s price first rallying to $90,300 in a blink, but then crashing back toward $86,000 just as quickly. The coin’s decline later extended to $85,300. While BTC returned to about the same levels as before the flash surge, the same wasn’t true about Ethereum. After its rally to $3,000, ETH plummeted to $2,830, before another leg down to about $2,790. Before the volatility storm, the cryptocurrency was trading around $2,920. The difference in price action could be a potential factor behind the divergence that has formed in the derivatives market sentiment as gauged by the Funding Rate. The Funding Rate keeps track of the periodic amount of fees that derivatives traders are paying on all centralized exchanges. A positive value on the indicator is a sign that long investors are paying the short ones, while a negative one implies bearish positions outweigh the bullish ones. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Funding Rate has changed for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has been positive for the last few days, indicating that a bullish mentality has been dominant among the traders. This sentiment has been maintained even after the price volatility. Ethereum was also observing a positive value on the Funding Rate prior to the volatility, but unlike for BTC, the trend didn’t last. Since ETH has gone through its quick surge and flash crash, the indicator has turned red, a sign that shorts have started outpacing longs. The fact that bullish sentiment around ETH has weakened, however, may not actually be negative. According to Santiment, highly leveraged long positions have historically led to sharp liquidation events and volatility. This trend was also seen during some recent tops and pullbacks. Thus, considering that the Funding Rate is negative for Ethereum now, the risk of volatility may be lower. That said, Bitcoin’s long-heavy market could still be relevant for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Sub-$50,000 By 2028 Without Quantum Fix, Warns Capriole Founder As Santiment explains, “all assets will still move with Bitcoin, meaning Bitcoin’s funding rates must stay neutral or go negative in order to justify a clear path back to $100K and for altcoins to rebound.” BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered back to $87,100 following its plunge on Wednesday. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price attempted to start a fresh increase but failed at $89,500. BTC is now struggling below $86,500 and might continue to move down. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $86,500 zone. The price is trading below $86,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $87,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $85,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price attempted a fresh recovery wave above $88,000 and $88,500. BTC tested the $89,500 resistance zone and reacted to the downside. There was a sharp decline below $88,000. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $87,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price even spiked below the $85,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $84,500 zone. A low was formed at $84,421 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $89,437 swing high to the $84,421 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $87,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $86,600 level. The first key resistance is near the $87,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $89,437 swing high to the $84,421 low. The next resistance could be $88,000. A close above the $88,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $88,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $89,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $90,000 and $90,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $87,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $85,000 level. The first major support is near the $84,500 level. The next support is now near the $83,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $82,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $80,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $85,000, followed by $84,500. Major Resistance Levels – $87,000 and $88,000.

Bitcoin has been under intense selling pressure in recent sessions, leaving market participants increasingly cautious about near-term direction. On Wednesday, BTC briefly surged from the $86,000 area toward $90,000, offering short-term investors a moment of relief after weeks of downside volatility. That rebound, however, proved short-lived. Price quickly retraced back to the $86,000 level, once again stalling bullish momentum and reinforcing the perception that sellers remain firmly in control. Related Reading: From Cycles To Continuity: Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Pattern May Be Breaking This failed recovery attempt has weighed heavily on sentiment, particularly among short-term holders who entered positions at higher levels during the previous consolidation range. According to a report by Axel Adler, on-chain data reveals that this cohort has entered a clear stress regime. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the average purchase price of short-term holders, a condition that historically increases the probability of reactive selling behavior. The stress is further reflected in the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR, 30-day), which has declined to 0.98. This reading indicates that short-term holders are, on average, realizing losses when they sell. Such environments often coincide with deteriorating confidence and heightened sensitivity to further downside moves. With BTC unable to hold recent relief rallies and short-term participants increasingly underwater, the market enters a fragile phase. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this pressure evolves into deeper capitulation or stabilizes into a base-building process. Short-Term Holders Under Stress as Loss-Taking Accelerates Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR 30D) is a critical gauge of short-term market stress, as it measures whether recent coin sales are occurring at a profit or a loss. Values above one indicate that short-term holders are selling profitably, while readings below one signal loss realization. Historically, sustained periods below one reflect deteriorating confidence and raise the risk of further downside, as loss-taking behavior can cascade into additional sell pressure. A continued decline in SOPR would likely intensify this dynamic and open the door to new local lows. By contrast, a meaningful recovery would require the metric to reclaim and hold above the one level, signaling that selling pressure is being absorbed and losses are no longer dominant. This stress is reinforced by the Short-Term Holders Positive vs Negative Sentiment chart. The indicator classifies holders based on whether they are in profit or at a loss. Over the past five weeks, sentiment has shifted decisively toward the orange and purple zones, representing negative positioning. The growing dominance of underwater holders increases the probability of panic-driven selling. Together, both charts deliver a consistent message: short-term participants are under pressure, and the current environment remains fragile until clear signs of relief emerge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Structure Turns Bearish As Structural Indicators Flip Negative Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Bears Persist Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the chart showing price consolidating around the $87,000 area after a sharp corrective move from the October highs near $125,000. The rejection from the upper range marked a clear shift in market structure, as BTC lost the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and failed to reclaim them on subsequent rebounds. The blue moving average has now turned downward, reinforcing the short- to medium-term bearish bias. Price is currently hovering just above the 200-day moving average, plotted in red, which sits near the $86,000–$88,000 zone. This level represents a critical area of long-term demand and structural support. Historically, sustained closes below the 200-day average tend to coincide with deeper corrective phases or prolonged consolidation. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Dries Up: Futures Buy Volume On Binance Falls from $5.8B to $250M Volume dynamics add to the cautious outlook. Selling pressure expanded significantly during the breakdown in October and November, while recent rebound attempts have occurred on relatively muted volume. This suggests that short-covering and tactical buying, rather than strong spot demand, are driving price stabilization. Structurally, Bitcoin is forming lower highs since the peak, keeping the broader trend vulnerable. A recovery scenario would require BTC to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 region and hold above the declining moving averages. Until then, the chart favors continued consolidation or further downside risk around the long-term support zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today as the crypto market remains in a phase of extreme fear. This latest crash came amid BlackRock’s move, which sparked fear of a sell-off from the world’s largest asset manager.  The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today following BlackRock’s transfer of 2,257 BTC and 74,973 ETH to Coinbase, indicating plans to offload these coins. Notably, the BTC and ETH ETFs recorded outflows on December 16, likely why the asset manager moved these coins to redeem shares for its IBIT and ETHA ETFs, which were sold that day.  Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Decline Amid BlackRock’s Transfer These Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have continued to record mixed flows, which have partly contributed to declines in BTC and ETH prices. Notably, the Bitcoin price had surged to around $90,000 yesterday from an intraday low of around $87,000, before retracing below $87,000 about an hour later. This immediately sparked theories of manipulation, with some crypto pundits revealing that BlackRock wasn’t the only one selling.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Crypto pundit Kruse claimed that Binance first bought nonstop for over 30 minutes to pump the price, then started dumping millions of BTC and ETH to liquidate longs. He noted that the Bitcoin price pumped about $3,300 in 30 minutes, with $106 million in shorts wiped out during that period.  Following that, BTC printed another volatile hourly candle to the downside, which flushed out $52 million in longs. A similar price action had also played out for the Ethereum price. Kruse declared that this wasn’t random volatility but rather liquidity hunting. The pundit further warned that this is how leverage gets punished in crypto. He then reiterated that the volatile Bitcoin and Ethereum price actions weren’t random, indicating the market is being manipulated.  Onchain Sleuth Tracer also accused Binance of being responsible for the Bitcoin and Ethereum price declines. He claimed that the crypto exchange pumped and dumped millions of BTC to liquidate traders, with $194 million in shorts and longs liquidated in one hour.  BTC And ETH To Hit New All-Time Highs Next Year? Crypto asset manager Bitwise has predicted that the Bitcoin price will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026. The asset manager alluded to factors such as the Bitcoin halving and interest rate cycles as what will drive this rally for the flagship crypto. The firm also remarked that crypto booms and busts fueled by leverage are weaker than in past cycles.  Related Reading: Ethereum 2-Year Trend Maps Out This Unique Crash Path To Bottom At $2,187 Bitwise also stated that institutions are likely to allocate more to Bitcoin ETFs, which is why they expect the Bitcoin price to reach new all-time highs next year. Furthermore, the firm noted that the pro-crypto regulatory shift will continue to allow companies to adopt crypto at a faster rate. The crypto asset manager also predicted that the Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high if the CLARITY Act passes. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered an extreme oversold phase, with momentum indicators dropping to levels that historically signal market exhaustion and a trend reversal. Researchers tracking macro conditions and long-term price behavior say that the current drawdown reflects a reset in positioning, not the end of the bull market. Based on past recovery patterns, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could soon forge a path toward a new all-time high.  Bitcoin Enters Extreme Oversold Territory  Thomas Lee, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Fundstrat Capital, has flagged Bitcoin’s latest market condition as a key technical development. He pointed to data from Bittel Julien, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, which highlights how deeply oversold Bitcoin has become within the current cycle and the cryptocurrency’s potential to reach a new ATH.  Related Reading: Why This Week Could Be Transformational For The XRP Price In his post on X, Lee publicly commended Julien’s analysis, emphasizing that historically extreme oversold conditions in BTC have often been followed by meaningful bounces. Julien, who also shared his report on X this Wednesday, explained that his analysis responds to frequent requests for updates on a long-running market model that tracks Bitcoin’s behavior following major momentum breakdowns.  According to him, the model examines BTC’s average price path after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 30, a level widely considered to indicate extreme oversold conditions. The analyst stated that Bitcoin’s recent price action has closely followed technical historical patterns, provided the broader bull market structure remains intact.  The accompanying chart compares current Bitcoin price behavior with the average historical trajectory observed after the last five instances in which the cryptocurrency entered oversold territory. The point at which RSI declines below 30 is marked as “time zero.” In previous cycles, this moment typically followed a period of stabilization and a strong upward recovery over the following weeks and months. Based on historical averages, Julien sees a potential path toward new all-time highs if Bitcoin continues to track past recovery patterns. While the market researcher cautions that the chart is not perfect, he argues that it remains a useful analytical framework, particularly if the four-year cycle thesis continues to play out.   BTC Cycle Could Extend Into 2026 As 4-Year Pattern Breaks  Julien’s analysis also suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle could extend well into 2026 and challenge the relevance of the traditional four-year cycle thesis. According to the market researcher, the BTC cycle has never been driven by halving events, contrary to what the broader crypto community believes. Instead, he stated that the cycle is fueled by public debt refinancing, which was delayed by a year after COVID.  Related Reading: Private Investment Firm Shares Why XRP Is Their Leading Investment He highlighted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is now officially broken due to an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure. He also noted that liquidity conditions and ongoing interest expense monetization, which far exceed GDP growth, support a prolonged cycle.  Furthermore, Julien emphasized that Bitcoin’s price bases usually take time to form and often include periods of volatility before a significant upward move occurs. The market researcher explained that his analysis was not a signal of an immediate market decline but rather a framework that assumes the bull market is still firmly in place.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

In its latest report, asset manager and exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer, Bitwise, has shared an optimistic 2026 outlook for the crypto market, anticipating significant growth, while predicting new all-time highs for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Megatrends In Crypto?  Bitwise begins by asserting that Bitcoin is poised to break free from its traditional four-year price cycle, setting the stage for new records. Several factors contribute to this bullish forecast.  The dynamics of past cycles, including the Bitcoin Halving, interest rate fluctuations, and market booms and busts fueled by leverage, are expected to be less impactful in the coming years.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Forecast: Top Expert Predicts $40,000 Target Next Year, Here’s The Analysis Notably, the entry of large institutions like Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch into the crypto space is anticipated to accelerate institutional allocations toward spot ETFs and enhance on-chain developments by 2026.  As a result, Bitcoin is projected to become less volatile, even indicating that it has demonstrated lower volatility than tech giant Nvidia throughout 2025.  The report also expresses strong optimism for Ethereum and Solana, particularly contingent upon the passing of the CLARITY Act. Bitwise believes that the growth of stablecoins and tokenization represents significant “megatrends,” with both Ethereum and Solana positioned to be the primary beneficiaries of this trend. ETFs To Acquire New Market Supply Institutional demand is forecasted to surge, with ETFs expected to acquire more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. By 2026, Bitwise expects that most institutional investors will have access to crypto ETFs.  As Bitwise projects the new supply hitting the market, estimates indicate roughly 166,000 Bitcoin valued at $15.3 billion, 960,000 Ethereum around $3.0 billion, and 23 million Solana coins amounting to $3.2 billion. However, the firm anticipates that ETFs will likely purchase even more than these figures suggest. The report further highlights that crypto equities are expected to outperform traditional tech stocks. While tech shares have surged by 140% over the past three years, crypto equities have significantly outpaced them.  The Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which tracks companies providing crucial infrastructure and services for crypto assets, has rocketed by 585% during the same time frame. Bitwise believes this momentum will persist into 2026, driven by potential revenue growth, mergers and acquisitions, and a favorable regulatory landscape. Stablecoins As Scapegoats For Economic Woes As stablecoins gain traction, Bitwise cautions that they may become scapegoats for destabilizing emerging market currencies. Currently valued at nearly $300 billion, the market for stablecoins, which include tokenized versions of the US dollar like USDT and USDC, is predicted to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026.  With this rise, it’s anticipated that one or two countries may blame stablecoins for their financial troubles, despite the reality that people would not turn to stablecoins if their local currencies were stable. Related Reading: Cantor Fitzgerald Projects Major Growth For Hyperliquid (HYPE) In Explosive New Report Additionally, Bitwise forecasts the launch of over 100 crypto-linked ETFs in the United States, following the SEC’s issuance of new listing standards that enable these funds to enter the market under a unified regulatory framework. This regulatory clarity sets the stage for what Bitwise dubs “ETF-palooza” in 2026. Lastly, the firm predicts that half of Ivy League endowments will likely invest in cryptocurrencies, and that on-chain vault assets under management will double in the coming years. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $86,165, having recorded major losses of 2% and almost 7% over the past 24 hours and seven days respectively. Currently, the leading crypto is trading 31.8% below its all-time high of $126,000.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

With only two weeks left of 2025, market participants wonder whether the Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market will continue to struggle or begin recovering. An analyst discussed the current market sentiment and the impact it may have on market performance. Related Reading: XRP Price Must Defend This Level To Avoid 50% Breakdown, Analyst Warns The Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is ‘Like Faith In God’ As we approach the end of the year, concerns about the crypto market’s performance continue to mount. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a 30% decline from its early October peak. As the volatility persist and the flagship crypto trades below its yearly opening price of $93,500, some investors questioned the four-year cycle theory, suggesting that the theory may no longer hold after the recent market’s performance. Responding to one of these comments, pseudonym market observer Plur affirmed that the four-year crypto cycle has evolved over the years and that “there is no magical rule of nature stating price must go up and down on this fixed cadence.” The analyst explained that the theory is a “memetic consensus, which is a form of implicit agreement and coordination that people will buy and sell together at set times, and by doing so, force outsiders to participate and bring their money.” “It’s an egregore-as-cartel. It’s a large group of loosely connected people all saying, every 4 years, we are going to hike up and down this mountain at the same time,” he detailed on the Wednesday post. Another community member added that the crypto cycle “is like faith in God: everyone believes in it, but no one has ever seen it.” Plur added that the initial catalyst and “original metronome” of this theory was the halving but that it has become “something more than that.” Market Struggles As Investors’ Faith Splits The evolution of the four-year crypto cycle has led some market participants to try to shift their behavior to “front run the moves of others” to benefit more.” As a result, many investors started to sell aggressively in 2025 anticipating of the end of the cycle. To the market watcher, this “represents a fraying in the memetic consensus, and eventually it collapses, as belief decays.” Similarly, Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, recently affirmed that Bitcoin is currently “climbing another wall of worry” that has made investors cautious of the upcoming market performance. She explained that there is fear of the four-year cycle, which suggests that 2026 will be a corrective year. Plur noted that the crypto market is in an uncertain state, where some investors continue to believe in the theory and some don’t. Related Reading: Solana Leads As Most Popular Blockchain Ecosystem For Second Consecutive Year – Report “The biggest impact that might have is not giving people enough confidence to buy on the upswing. Remember how assured you felt buying in 2023? Now the troops are scattered because the coordination mechanism is gone,” he stated. Plur added that “in equities the memetic consensus is that the index will always grind up over time, buy the dip, trust the process. (…) I had been hopeful that something similar could come in for BTC to replace the 4 year cycle, but sell pressure was way too high,” leading to the indeterminate state of the market. He concluded that it’s time to wait and see if a new form of memetic consensus can form. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

The idea that Bitcoin’s halving operates on a fixed four-year timetable has become one of the most oversimplified narratives in the crypto markets. While the halving still reduces new supply, its influence is no longer confined to predictable timelines or uniform outcomes. As BTC matures into a globally traded asset, the forces shaping its market behavior have expanded beyond the event. How The Cycle Narrative Became Oversimplified In an X post, an analyst known as Deg_ape revealed that the Bitcoin halving cycle was never a rigid four-year clock. BTC’s cycle has always been about phase transitions, shifting liquidity conditions, and market behavior, but never about buying every four years and selling four years later. This cycle actually maps macro bear phases that expand, contract, overlap, and stretch based on macro flows and positioning.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details The four-year cycle still exists, but it is not a linear process. Deg_ape explains that BTC halvings act as a structural anchor, not a price guarantee. This is why market tops usually arrive later than most expect and why bear markets last longer than people can tolerate. Trying to time the BTC market cycle without understanding that these phase dynamics can lead to expensive mistakes. Kyle Chassé has pointed out that Bitcoin dipped, and traders stopped watching the printer, which is a big mistake. This is the most dangerous divergence in the market as price is down, but liquidity is vertical. While traders were panicking and selling their slips, the US Treasury and the Fed quietly injected around $130 billion of fresh liquidity into the system.  This shows that liquidity would lead the price, but it won’t do it instantly. There’s a big lag as liquidity will flood the market first, then the assets will reprice. However, a red candle on a green liquidity chart isn’t a crash, but a mispricing. While the printer is screaming up, the price chart is whispering down. Why Retail Holders Are Capitulating At A Historic Rate A crypto analyst known as OnChainCollege outlined that retail holders are under pressure. On-chain data shows the deepest 30-day balance decline among retail wallets since 2018, a level typically associated with periods of extreme fear and capitulation. While retail balances are falling sharply, larger holder cohorts are quietly absorbing the difference.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Exhaustion? BTC Whales Close Long Positions After Extreme Upside Bets The market sentiment has split into two groups with polar-opposite perspectives from retail that are reacting to price action against larger holders that are responding to structure, liquidity, and long-term positioning. In the meantime, the OG whales have continued to distribute throughout this bull market, but Mega whales and institutional participants are stepping in as the marginal buyers. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The founder of Capriole Investments has warned about the Quantum risk to Bitcoin, saying there’s a 34% chance it breaks BTC in the next three years. Bitcoin Could Trade At A Discount If No Quantum Fix Is Deployed As Quantum Computing continues to advance, many in the Bitcoin community have been raising concerns about what a breakthrough could mean for the cryptocurrency. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has been one of those voices. Related Reading: Chainlink’s Top Whales Reverse Course, Quietly Scoop Up $263M In LINK Last week, Edwards gave a presentation on the Quantum threat to Bitcoin at the Global Blockchain Show in Abu Dhabi. The analyst has also shared some insights on X. According to Edwards, there’s a 34% chance that Quantum will undermine BTC’s cryptography in the next three years. Based on this, the Capriole founder has assigned a 34% discount to BTC today. “Given a 2-3 yr timeline to deploy fix, this is the current discount rate,” noted Edwards. “And it is growing. Every. Single. Day.” The probability has been estimated using seven different sources providing timelines for Quantum Computing breakthroughs. If Capriole’s calculations are to go by, the Quantum threat has a chance of more than 50% to affect blockchain technology by 2030. What will happen in the scenario that Quantum Computing does end up unlocking Bitcoin’s cryptography? Even if wallets today are secured properly, there are still old wallets that can be vulnerable. A chunk of the BTC supply has been dormant for years, and with a Quantum breakthrough, it could potentially find its way back into circulation. The most popular example of dormant holdings is, of course, the ones attributed to the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Satoshi’s wallets hold a total of 1,096,354 BTC, worth a whopping $95 billion at current prices. All these coins possibly being dumped on the market would naturally have a negative effect on the Bitcoin price. Not just because of the scale involved, but also because of the loss of confidence that such an event would result in. Considering the threat, Capriole has repeatedly stressed that a fix needs to be implemented as soon as possible. So far, the community hasn’t reached a consensus on when or what the solution should be. In an X post, Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor has also chimed in on the topic. “Quantum computing won’t break Bitcoin—it will harden it,” wrote Saylor. “The network upgrades, active coins migrate, lost coins stay frozen.” In this scenario, the coins attached to Satoshi and other early miners will forever become inaccessible. Related Reading: Bitcoin, Ethereum Plunge Triggers Near-$600 Million Crypto Long Flush Edwards has warned that if a solution isn’t implemented in time, the coin may face its biggest bear market in history. “If we haven’t deployed a fix by 2028, I expect Bitcoin will be sub $50K and continue to fall until it’s fixed,” said the Capriole founder. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,500, down 5.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Capriole.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price attempted to start a fresh increase but failed at $90,000. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $88,000 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $87,000 zone. The price is trading below $87,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $86,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $87,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses Bitcoin price attempted a fresh surge above $88,000 and $88,500. BTC tested the $90,000 resistance zone and reacted to the downside. There was a sharp decline below $88,000. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $86,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price even spiked below the $86,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $85,250 zone. A low was formed at $85,282 and the price recently started an upside correction. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,318 swing high to the $85,282 low. The bears are active near $87,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $87,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $86,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $87,350 level. The next resistance could be $87,800 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,318 swing high to the $85,282 low. A close above the $87,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $88,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $89,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $90,000 and $90,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $87,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $85,500 level. The first major support is near the $85,250 level. The next support is now near the $85,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $84,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $83,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $85,500, followed by $85,000. Major Resistance Levels – $87,800 and $88,000.

Bitcoin has entered a critical make-or-break phase as price clings to key weekly support while momentum continues to fade. Despite holding above a major confluence zone, repeated rejections overhead suggest buyers are losing control. With macro pressure building and liquidity levels still untested, the next move from here could define whether BTC stabilizes or slides into a deeper reset. Lower-Timeframe Rejection Keeps The Downtrend In Control Crypto analyst Michael Van De Poppe revealed in a recent post that Bitcoin has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance level. This failure signals that the short-term downtrend remains intact on lower timeframes, confirming that selling pressure currently outweighs buying momentum in the immediate term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details To flip this short-term bias, Van de Poppe expects a clear breakout above the $88,000 level. A successful move above this mark would serve as a strong, unequivocal signal to the markets that the corrective phase is over and that upward momentum is likely to take hold from that point forward. If buyers fail to achieve this necessary breakout, it remains highly probable that the price will pursue liquidity targets below, specifically targeting a test at $83,000 for liquidity. Should that fail, a further descent to the $80,000 level will trigger stop-losses. Finally, Van De Poppe connected the technical outlook to the broader economic environment. Given the high volume of macroeconomic events scheduled to take place over the course of the week, such as FOMC, Poppe believes that the market could experience significant volatility and end up reaching one of the predicted downside liquidity tests. $93,000 Rejection Stalls Momentum, but Weekly Structure Still Intact According to a weekly chart update by Crypto Damus, Bitcoin recently faced a firm rejection at the $93,000 resistance level. Despite that setback, price action remains constructive for now, with BTC holding above the crucial $86,000 weekly support zone. This area is reinforced with the key 100-week moving average confluence, making it an important level to watch in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Potential 60% Decline As Expert Warns Of ‘Major Bull Trap’ That said, the broader structure still leaves room for deeper downside. Crypto Damus notes that a full retracement toward the rising wedge breakdown target cannot be ruled out, which aligns closely with the April low around the $78,000 region. A move into that zone would represent a more pronounced corrective phase within the larger cycle. Looking further ahead, a deeper bear-market-style retest may ultimately present a more attractive long-term opportunity. A revisit of the $70,000 level is highlighted as a potential high-conviction buying area, should the market extend its pullback. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has lost more than 30% of its value since early October, triggering a sharp shift in market psychology. What was once viewed as a routine correction is increasingly being interpreted by analysts as a potential cycle top. Sentiment has deteriorated quickly, with fear and apathy replacing the optimism that dominated earlier in the year. Many investors are now positioning defensively, preparing for what they believe could be a prolonged bear market phase similar to past post-peak cycles. Related Reading: Who Really Sold The Dip? On-Chain Data Exposes Bitcoin’s True Sellers However, a recent CryptoQuant report challenges this increasingly popular narrative. According to the analysis, Bitcoin may no longer be following the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle that has defined its historical price behavior. Instead, the report introduces the Bitcoin Supercycle thesis, which argues that the classic halving-driven cycle structure could be breaking down in favor of a more extended, structurally supported bull market. The core idea behind the supercycle framework is that Bitcoin’s market dynamics have fundamentally changed. Unlike previous cycles driven largely by speculative retail flows, the current environment is shaped by new forces that did not exist in earlier eras. These structural shifts may be altering how drawdowns, tops, and recoveries unfold, potentially smoothing volatility over longer time horizons. The New Fundamentals Behind Bitcoin’s Supercycle Thesis According to the CryptoQuant report, the case for a potential Bitcoin supercycle is built on structural forces that were absent in previous market cycles. The most significant shift comes from institutional adoption. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by issuers such as BlackRock, have introduced a persistent and regulated source of demand from traditional finance. Unlike speculative retail flows, these vehicles treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset allocation, creating steady absorption rather than short-lived hype. On-chain data further reinforces this narrative. Exchange reserves continue to trend lower, signaling long-term accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure. At the same time, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains relatively rational. Profit-taking is occurring, but without the euphoric spikes historically associated with cycle tops, suggesting a more mature and disciplined market structure. Infrastructure readiness is another critical pillar. While Bitcoin remains the core asset, scalability improvements across the broader crypto ecosystem—such as Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade and the rapid expansion of Layer-2 networks—are enabling faster, cheaper transactions and real-world use cases. This enhances Bitcoin’s role as a settlement and reserve asset within a growing digital economy. Finally, the macro backdrop remains supportive. Geopolitical instability and the prospect of future monetary easing strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, decentralized hard asset. Together, these forces form a credible foundation for an extended supercycle, though the report cautions that external shocks could still disrupt this trajectory. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Dries Up: Futures Buy Volume On Binance Falls from $5.8B to $250M Price Action Shows Weak Structure Near Key Support Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains fragile, as shown on the 4-hour chart. Price continues to trade below the $90,000 psychological level, with repeated failures to reclaim key moving averages reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200-period moving average (red) is clearly sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance near the $92,000–$93,000 zone, while the 100- and 50-period averages (green and blue) have compressed and rolled over, signaling fading upside momentum. After the sharp sell-off earlier in the month, Bitcoin attempted a recovery but stalled below descending resistance. Since then, the price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term downtrend. The current consolidation around $86,000–$87,000 suggests indecision, but notably, bounces are becoming weaker, indicating limited demand on relief rallies. Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? From a technical perspective, the $85,000–$86,000 area represents a critical support zone. A sustained break below this range would likely open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, bulls would need a decisive reclaim of $90,000, followed by acceptance above the descending moving averages, to meaningfully shift momentum. Until then, the chart favors consolidation with downside risk. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level as it continues to test critical demand around the $86,000 zone. After weeks of corrective price action, bulls are finding it increasingly difficult to build a convincing case for trend continuation. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Dries Up: Futures Buy Volume On Binance Falls from $5.8B to $250M Momentum has faded, upside attempts have been rejected, and market confidence is weakening. As a result, a growing number of analysts are beginning to openly discuss the possibility that Bitcoin is transitioning into a broader bear market phase rather than a temporary pullback within a larger uptrend. This shift in narrative is supported by structural data. In a recent analysis, Axel Adler highlights that Bitcoin’s price action is now aligned with a clear deterioration in market structure. His chart, which combines a composite Structure Shift signal with a Donchian Channel, shows that the indicator has decisively moved into negative territory. The Structure Shift composite ranges from -1 to +1, with values below zero signaling bearish regime dominance. Currently, the signal sits near -0.5, a level historically associated with sustained downside pressure rather than short-lived corrections. At the same time, Bitcoin price has dropped to the lower boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel and is hovering just above the $85,000 support area. Together, these signals suggest that the market is operating in a risk-off environment, where downside risks remain elevated unless structure improves meaningfully. Bitcoin Structure Confirms Bearish Regime Adler notes that the current position of the Structure Shift composite signal confirms Bitcoin has firmly established itself within a bearish structural zone. With the indicator sitting below zero, the market is no longer in a neutral or transitional phase but operating under sustained downside conditions. According to this framework, the primary trigger for improvement would be a decisive recovery of the composite signal back above the zero threshold, ideally while price continues to hold support within the Donchian Channel. Without that shift, any short-term bounce risks remaining corrective rather than trend-changing. This bearish structure is reinforced by Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear market structure index, which focuses on derivatives dynamics through fast and slow regime components. The latest data shows the bullish component collapsing to just 5%, an extremely low reading that reflects the near absence of constructive long-side momentum. At the same time, the fast bearish component has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling rising seller pressure driven primarily by the futures market. This configuration highlights a critical imbalance. Short-term momentum is firmly controlled by bears, while spot demand has so far proven insufficient to absorb derivatives-led selling pressure. For conditions to improve, the bullish component of the index would need to recover meaningfully, signaling renewed participation from buyers. Taken together, both indicators point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin has undergone a local structural shift into bearish territory. The dominant risk remains continued downside pressure driven by derivatives, especially in the absence of strong spot accumulation. Related Reading: Who Really Sold The Dip? On-Chain Data Exposes Bitcoin’s True Sellers Bitcoin Price Tests Critical Support as Downtrend Persists Bitcoin continues to trade under clear downside pressure. The price now hovers around the $86,500 level after failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. The chart highlights a decisive breakdown below the short- and medium-term moving averages. With BTC trading well beneath the 50-day and 100-day averages. These levels, which previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend, have now flipped into resistance. Reinforcing the bearish market structure. The most notable technical development is Bitcoin’s interaction with the 200-day moving average, shown in red. Price has briefly tested this long-term support but remains fragile, with follow-through buying notably absent. Historically, sustained trading below faster-moving averages while compressing near the 200-day often signals either a prolonged consolidation phase or the risk of an additional leg lower if demand fails to appear. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin’s Quiet Price Action May Be ‘Dangerous’ – IFP Signals Rising Structural Risk Structurally, Bitcoin remains in a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the October peak near $125K. As long as price remains capped below the $90K–$95K resistance zone, downside risks persist. For bulls to regain control, BTC must first stabilize above current demand and reclaim key moving averages. Signaling that sellers are losing dominance. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has revealed the next Bitcoin price level he is looking to accumulate at in anticipation of a relief rally. Despite plans to buy BTC, the analyst indicated that he is still bearish on the flagship crypto in the long term, with a larger decline expected to unfold.  Analyst Reveals The Next Buy Level As Bitcoin Price Eyes Bounce In an X post, Doctor Profit stated that he is buying BTC around $86,000 as he looks to trade a short-term relief bounce. He reiterated that he sees the probability of the Bitcoin price revisiting the $97,000 to $107,000 region before the next major leg lower unfolds. The analyst added that this projected move is a 20% from the current region, which presents a good risk-reward trade with a tight stop loss.  Related Reading: Analyst Shares Full Technical Bitcoin Price Breakdown – Here’s The Target Doctor Profit is known to have predicted the Bitcoin price top when it was trading at around $126,000. The analyst noted that he remains very bearish in the long term, expecting further declines. As such, he plans to play this move to buy BTC with absolute and the highest form of risk management.  The analyst explained that this means he will ensure to place the stop loss at entry once in solid profit, while his short trade from between $115,000 and $125,000 will still be running. Doctor Profit further remarked that this long setup for the Bitcoin price is aimed at a few weeks only, before the bearish price action resumes with lower targets.  BTC Remains “Extremely Unstable And Bearish” Doctor Profit stated that the Bitcoin price remains extremely unstable and bearish for the mid-term, noting that a strong downside continuation can happen at any moment, even before the flagship crypto reaches the projected $97,000 to $107,000 zone. The analyst added that a deeper and faster sell-off is absolutely possible, so those looking to buy now should take extreme caution.  Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Still Hit $140,000? What The Global M2 Money Supply Says Doctor Profit reiterated that his short positions remain fully open, as any upside is treated as distribution and liquidity for the next leg down. The analyst noted that the $70,000 region remains the main target. If the Bitcoin price manages to revisit the $97,000 to $107,000 region, he stated that he would fully take profit again on the position and add the profits to his short position.  In the meantime, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned that the Bitcoin price needs to hold the $87,000 region or risk dropping to as low as $70,000. BTC is currently on the edge with Japan set to raise its interest rates this week.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $86,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Struggling under the weight of notable selling pressure, the Bitcoin price has since lost its hold on the $90,000 support, leading to a sustained downtrend through the middle of December. Despite calls for a bottom, the cryptocurrency does not seem to be heading in that direction, and some analysts have shared reasons as to why this is the case. Crypt analyst Lingrid maps out the trajectory of the Bitcoin price, showing a bullish short-term, but ultimately ending with more declines. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Further Lingrid’s analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s recent price performance, having hit resistance multiple times above the $92,000 level. This comes as the digital asset is “capped below channel border,” something that is inherently bearish for the price, given the recent price action. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts How Low The XRP Price Will Go Before Bouncing The rejections between $92,500 and $93,500, according to the analyst, show that the Bitcoin price is likely to place in lower highs. Thus, even in the event of a recovery trend, this level still remains a significant roadblock to any rally. Furthermore, the crypto analyst adds that the recent slowdown in the Bitcoin price action has pushed it into a tight compression. With the price still sitting above the rising support line while this happens, Lingrid believes that this shows Bitcoin is entering into a state of equilibrium, and not strength. Usually, this means that the Bitcoin price could be headed for “directional expansion.” Presently, all eyes are on the bears and sellers as the Bitcoin price struggles to hold support. There is still the possibility that the price will rise to $92,500 before facing a rejection. In this scenario, it would trigger further decline toward $82,000 to put in lower lows. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Still Hit $140,000? What The Global M2 Money Supply Says There is also the possibility that the digital asset does escape this bearish scenario, but the buyers would have to step back in the ring. Mainly, the Bitcoin price must break out and then hold above the channel, sustaining a move above $92,500. If this plays out, then Lingrid believes that the bearish thesis could be invalidated. Such a case would mean that the Bitcoin focus shifts back toward $100,000. However, with the price currently trending below $90,000 and sentiment being mostly negative, the chances of an invalidation remain slim. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets have witnessed a sharp retrace during the last 24 hours, which has resulted in a long squeeze on derivatives exchanges. Crypto Long Liquidations Have Neared $600 Million During The Past Day According to data from CoinGlass, the latest sharp price action in the cryptocurrency market has accompanied a huge amount of liquidations over at the derivatives side of the sector. Related Reading: US Bitcoin Session Leads December Returns After Weak November “Liquidation” here naturally refers to the forceful closure that any open contract has to undergo after it has amassed losses of a certain degree. For long investors, this happens when the asset’s price drops, while for shorts, liquidation occurs after a surge. How much the cryptocurrency will have to move in one direction to liquidate a specific position comes down to the percentage threshold defined by the platform and the amount of leverage that the trader has opted for. During sharp price swings, positions with high amounts of leverage attached are the first to go. Bitcoin and other assets have faced some notable volatility during the past day, which has once again caught out traders on the derivatives market. As the table below shows, liquidations have crossed $650 million over the last 24 hours. About $584 million of these liquidations involved long positions alone. That’s equivalent to almost 90% of the total, showcasing how disproportionate the price volatility has been during this period. In terms of the individual symbols, the largest contributor to the liquidation event has been Ethereum, not Bitcoin, as is often the case. With over $235 million in contracts involved, Ethereum has notably outpaced Bitcoin, which has witnessed $186 million in liquidations. ETH facing more liquidations is likely due to the fact that its price drawdown has been stronger during the past day. Out of the altcoins, Solana has come out on top with $37 million in positions flushed, ahead of XRP ($16 million) and Dogecoin ($12 million). Interestingly, SOL has outperformed the two despite its losses being more limited. In some other news, the latest Bitcoin decline has meant that its price has fallen back under a key on-chain price level, as the chart shared by analytics firm Glassnode shows. The level in question is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the active participants on the Bitcoin network. Currently, it’s located at $87,900, which is above the cryptocurrency’s spot price. Related Reading: Cardano SuperTrend Turns Bearish—Last Signal Preceded 80% ADA Drop Thus, it would appear that the latest dip has put the active investors as a whole into a state of net unrealized loss. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,200, down more than 3% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CoinGlass.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price declined further and traded below the $87,000 support zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $89,350 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $87,500 zone. The price is trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $89,350 zone. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses Bitcoin price struggled to stay above the $89,000 and $88,500 levels. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $88,000 support. The price even spiked below the $86,500 support. However, the bulls were active near the $85,000 zone. A low was formed at $85,151 and the price recently started an upside correction. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low. The bears are active near $89,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $88,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $88,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $89,350 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low. A close above the $89,350 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $91,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $92,000 and $92,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $88,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $87,000 level. The first major support is near the $86,500 level. The next support is now near the $85,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $83,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $85,500, followed by $85,500. Major Resistance Levels – $88,500 and $89,350.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to regain momentum in the market, failing to surpass its nearest resistance level of $94,000 for over a month. The cryptocurrency is currently trading within a broad range between $85,000 and $93,000, leading to growing concerns about further price corrections in the upcoming months. Amid this uncertainty, market expert NoLimit recently expressed on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he anticipates Bitcoin could bottom out at around $40,000 sometime in 2026. This forecast implies a significant 54% decline from current levels, which are just above $87,860. A Historical Perspective On Market Cycles NoLimit’s analysis outlines several reasons for this predicted downturn. He points out that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to surprise investors, often when confidence in the market is high. While each price cycle may appear unique on the surface, NoLimit argues that the underlying mechanics remain largely unchanged. He emphasizes the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, noting that it moves within a four-year cycle influenced by liquidity, leverage, and human behavior rather than mere sentiment.  According to him, the market is currently late in this cycle, and Bitcoin has consistently followed a three-step process during past upward movements. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecast: Key Factors That Could Propel It To $3 In Early 2026 First, Bitcoin tends to surge in price following the Halving event. This is typically followed by an influx of maximum leverage and late-stage buyers. Finally, the cycle concludes with a sharp and often chaotic reset before the next significant price expansion occurs. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced steep declines during these resets, such as an approximate 85% drop in 2013-2014, an 84% drop in 2017-2018, and a 77% drop during the 2021-2022 cycle. In each scenario, investors were convinced that the conditions were different, yet the outcomes remained consistent. $40,000 As Foundation For Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run  Considering the current market situation, NoLimit highlights several critical indicators. He notes that Bitcoin has already seen substantial price appreciation, with institutional interest and exchange-trade fund (ETF) approvals now part of the landscape.  He also observes that many traders are over-leveraged, market volatility is compressed, and there exists widespread hope for further price increases. These factors often signal a heightened risk of downside movement in the market. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Suffer A 20% Decline After Japan’s Rate Hike? Historical Patterns Suggest So A potential drop toward the $40,000 range should not be viewed as an unforeseen disaster, according to NoLimit. He argues that significant price declines have historically preceded major upward movements.  Additionally, this price target aligns well with several technical indicators, including previous resistance levels that have turned into support, long-term moving averages, and the liquidity gap created by ETF approvals.  Such factors suggest that a move toward this region could exhaust forced sellers and provide a solid foundation for recovery. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has retraced to the $85,000 level, a critical support zone that bulls must defend to prevent a deeper breakdown. After failing to reclaim higher levels, price action has slowed and volatility has compressed, reinforcing a market environment dominated by apathy and fear. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin’s Quiet Price Action May Be ‘Dangerous’ – IFP Signals Rising Structural Risk Sentiment across the crypto space has deteriorated sharply, with a growing number of analysts openly discussing the possibility of a prolonged bear market extending into next year. In this context, understanding who is actually selling becomes far more important than the price move itself. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s pullback from the ~$88.2K region toward ~$85K provides a clean on-chain read of market behavior beneath the surface. Exchange inflow data segmented by Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) shows that the decline was not driven by structural distribution from long-term investors. Historically, bear markets accelerate when long-term holders begin distributing supply. The absence of that behavior suggests the current drawdown reflects positioning adjustments and risk reduction rather than a collapse in long-term conviction. As Bitcoin tests $85K, the market is not only evaluating price support levels. Short-Term Profit-Taking, Not Structural Distribution The CryptoQuant report by Crazzyblockk provides a precise breakdown of who actually drove Bitcoin’s recent pullback. On December 15, when BTC traded near the $88.2K level, Short-Term Holders sent approximately 24.7K BTC to exchanges. Crucially, 86.8% of this supply was realized in profit, while only 13.2% was sold at a loss. In dollar terms, profitable STH inflows exceeded $1.89 billion, vastly outweighing loss-driven selling. This profile clearly indicates that sellers were primarily near-term buyers exiting from strength, rather than panicked participants capitulating under stress. As the price moved lower on December 16 toward the $86K area, total STH inflows dropped sharply to just 3.9K BTC. Although this smaller flow was realized at a loss, its limited size signals exhaustion rather than an acceleration of selling pressure. While the percentage of loss realization increased, the absolute volume did not—an important nuance often overlooked in surface-level market analysis. Long-Term Holder behavior reinforces this constructive interpretation. Across both days, LTH inflows remained muted, falling from roughly 326 BTC to just 50 BTC. There is no sign of capitulation or meaningful distribution from this cohort. Overall, the data shows a market cooling through short-term profit-taking, not breaking through structural sell pressure. Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? Bitcoin Weekly Price Structure and Key Support Dynamics Bitcoin has retraced sharply from its cycle highs and is now consolidating around the $85K–$88K zone. This area is technically significant. Price is currently interacting with the rising 100-week moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout the broader uptrend since 2023. So far, buyers are attempting to defend this level, preventing a deeper weekly close below it. Structurally, the market has shifted from strong impulsive expansion into a corrective phase. The loss of the 50-week moving average earlier in the pullback signaled a transition from momentum-driven price discovery to consolidation and mean reversion. However, the longer-term trend remains intact as long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average, currently well below the price. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test Volume has declined during the retracement, suggesting that selling pressure is not accelerating aggressively. This supports the view that the move is corrective rather than distributive. From a risk perspective, failure to hold the $85K region would open the door to a deeper retrace toward the low-$70K range. Conversely, reclaiming the $90K–$92K zone would be required to restore bullish structure and momentum on the weekly timeframe. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows Bitcoin has witnessed a notable amount of gains during the US trading session in December so far, a shift compared to the November trend. Bitcoin Has Performed The Best During US Trading Session This Month As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the American trading session has flipped for Bitcoin in December. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn, which compares the returns that BTC has achieved across the different trading sessions over the past month. The trading sessions here have been divided based on when investors of a major market are typically active. Bitcoin and other blockchain-based assets run 24/7, so there naturally isn’t ever a time in any timezone where trading is inactive. However, investors do still tend to trade more actively during their daytime, which is what these sessions are based on. From the chart, it’s visible that cumulative Bitcoin returns were negative for the American trading session during the last couple of weeks of November. Europe and Asia-Pacific didn’t perform much better, but they at least saw close to neutral returns. Related Reading: Cardano SuperTrend Turns Bearish—Last Signal Preceded 80% ADA Drop Toward the end of November, though, a shift began to take shape, with returns during US hours going up. And in this month of December so far, the trading session has pulled away from the rest, with cumulative returns sitting at a positive 8%. In contrast, Europe and Asia-Pacific have the metric at a level of around -4% or lower. Thus, if the cumulative returns during these sessions are anything to go by, it would appear that American investors have been participating in Bitcoin accumulation this month, while the others have been distributing or simply, not buying. In some other news, the Bitcoin selloff last month caused a key on-chain indicator to go through its largest negative change in years, as quant Frank has pointed out in an X post. The metric displayed in the chart is the Realized Price of the Bitcoin short-term holders. This indicator measures the average cost basis of investors on the BTC network. The version listed in the graph specifically tracks the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs), entities who entered the market over the last 155 days. As is visible in the chart, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price saw a notable decline alongside the price crash in the cryptocurrency during November. This suggests investors who bought at higher levels panic capitulated, repricing their coins to the lower post-plunge levels. Related Reading: XRP Mildly Undervalued On MVRV: What About Bitcoin, Ethereum? This capitulation was so strong that the STH Realized Price saw its largest red 7-day change since the FTX crash back in November 2022. BTC Price Bitcoin has witnessed bearish price action during the past day as its price has come down to $85,800 following a drop of about 3.5%. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 4% drop, falling below the $86,000 mark on Monday, as market speculation grows regarding the cryptocurrency’s future following the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate decision.  In a recent poll conducted from December 2 to 9, an overwhelming 90% of economists—63 out of 70—predicted that the BOJ would increase short-term interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% at this week’s planned meeting. Experts Warn Of Impact From BOJ Rate Hikes Experts on social media have noted a concerning trend: during the last three rate hikes by the BOJ, Bitcoin has typically dropped significantly. The statistics reveal the following declines: a 23% drop in March 2024, a 26% decline in July 2024, and a 31% dip in January of this year.  Related Reading: Why XRP Isn’t Reacting to Major Institutional and Regional Developments Based on current prices just below $86,000, this would imply that if the cryptocurrency sees another 20% correction, it could drop all the way to 68,800. This would mean extending the gap compared to the all-time high of $126,000 by almost 46%.  The group of experts further highlighted that the dynamics at play in Japan significantly impact Bitcoin’s performance as Japan holds the largest amount of US debt of any nation.  When Japanese interest rates rise, capital tends to flow back to Japan, leading to reduced liquidity in dollars. This decrease in dollar liquidity often results in the selling of riskier assets like Bitcoin. On November 30, a foreboding sign of this potential downturn appeared when confirmation of Japan’s impending rate hike caused Bitcoin to dip to around $83,000, erasing approximately $200 billion from the overall cryptocurrency market. However, the bearish sentiment affecting Bitcoin is not solely the result of Japan’s actions. Market analyst known as NoLimit recently pointed to another critical factor: China’s renewed crackdown on Bitcoin mining.  China’s Mining Crackdown Spurs Bitcoin Sell-Off The analyst recently asserted that China has tightened regulations, particularly affecting operations in Xinjiang, where a significant number of crypto mining setups were shut down in December. This led to the abrupt offline status of roughly 400,000 miners. The repercussions of such a sudden shift in mining activity are already evident. The Bitcoin network hashrate has fallen by about 8%, indicating that fewer miners are actively contributing to the network.  NoLimit suggests that this sudden reduction creates immediate revenue-loss for miners, who may need to liquidate Bitcoin to cover operational costs or to relocate their equipment. Consequently, this generates actual selling pressure on the market, contributing to the downward price trend seen on Monday. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Compression Deepens as Analysts Debate if the Next Move Is a Rally or Breakdown Despite the short-term pain this creates, the analysts clarified that it does not indicate a long-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Instead, he views it as a temporary supply shock driven by regulatory decisions rather than a shift in demand.  Historical patterns support this notion: when China has previously cracked down on miners, the cycle follows a familiar trajectory: miners are forced offline, hashrate dips occur, prices fluctuate, and eventually, the network adapts before Bitcoin moves forward again. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $88,000 support zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $88,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $90,500 zone. The price is trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $89,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $85,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to gain strength for a move above the $90,000 and $90,500 levels. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $88,500 support. The price even spiked below the $87,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $85,000 zone. A low was formed at $85,151 and the price is consolidating gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is near the $87,150 level. The first key resistance is near the $87,500 level. The next resistance could be $88,000. A close above the $88,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $89,000 resistance. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $89,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $91,000 and $91,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $87,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $85,500 level. The first major support is near the $85,000 level. The next support is now near the $83,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $82,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $80,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $85,500, followed by $85,000. Major Resistance Levels – $88,000 and $89,000.

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim higher ground as bulls focus on defending current demand zones. After a sharp correction from recent highs, price action has entered a consolidation phase that, on the surface, appears relatively calm. Volatility has compressed, and short-term price movements suggest a market pausing rather than decisively breaking down. However, this apparent stability may be misleading. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test According to a CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data is signaling growing structural risk beneath the surface. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), a metric that tracks the movement of Bitcoin between exchanges and serves as a proxy for internal market liquidity, has turned red. In such environments, price moves tend to be sharper and less orderly once direction is established. While reduced exchange balances can limit immediate selling pressure, they also amplify the impact of sudden demand or forced liquidations. This shift indicates a clear slowdown in capital circulation across trading venues, suggesting that liquidity conditions are deteriorating. Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse Signals Structural Fragility The report explains that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) measures how actively Bitcoin moves from one exchange to another, serving as a proxy for internal market liquidity and capital circulation. When IFP is elevated, capital rotates efficiently across venues, arbitrage opportunities are quickly absorbed, and liquidity providers keep order books deep. In those conditions, price discovery is smoother, and volatility tends to remain contained. By contrast, when IFP declines, the market’s internal “blood flow” weakens. Capital becomes static, liquidity fragments, and prices grow increasingly sensitive to relatively small trades. This deterioration in liquidity is unfolding alongside historically low exchange balances. While reduced sellable supply can initially act as price support, it also creates thinner order books. Once price begins to move decisively in either direction, slippage increases and volatility accelerates. With leverage still elevated across derivatives markets, instability becomes driven less by directional conviction and more by the magnitude of forced reactions. Historically, periods when IFP turned red produced abrupt corrections and sharp price swings, not clean trends. The central risk today is therefore not aggressive distribution, but structural fragility. Until inter-exchange liquidity improves, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sudden, outsized moves, making leveraged positioning particularly risky in the current market structure. Related Reading: XRP Whale Activity Spikes At The Bottom – A Classic Pre-Rally Signal Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Moving Averages The 4-hour Bitcoin chart highlights a market locked in consolidation after a sharp corrective move. Following the aggressive sell-off in late November, BTC found a local bottom near the $82,000–$83,000 zone, where strong demand stepped in and triggered a rebound. However, that recovery quickly lost momentum, and price is now ranging below the descending cluster of moving averages. Bitcoin is currently trading around the $89,000–$90,000 level, repeatedly failing to reclaim the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour timeframe. The 50 and 100 moving averages are also sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the short-term bearish structure. Each attempt to push higher has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that bulls lack conviction at current levels. Related Reading: This Whale Isn’t Stopping: $392M Ethereum Long And A Tight Liquidation Price Revealed Volume has noticeably contracted during this consolidation phase, indicating reduced participation and indecision among traders. This typically precedes a volatility expansion, especially when price compresses beneath major resistance. Structurally, BTC remains vulnerable as long as it trades below the $92,000–$94,000 zone, which previously acted as support and now caps upside attempts. On the downside, the $87,000–$88,000 range is emerging as immediate support. A decisive breakdown below this area could reopen the path toward the $84,000 region. Until a clear breakout occurs, Bitcoin remains in a fragile balance between distribution and base-building. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price outlook remains under scrutiny as market analysts assess whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can still reach $140,000. Given BTC’s recent downturn and fluctuating price, it’s understandable that a dramatic surge to $140,000 could be viewed skeptically. However, the analyst points to global M2 Money Supply, highlighting its correlation with Bitcoin and its support for a significant upside move. New discussions have emerged in the crypto space about the relationship between the Bitcoin price action and the global M2 Money Supply. Pseudonymous crypto analyst ‘MoneyLord’ has projected a massive price surge to $140,000 for BTC based on M2 data. The analyst noted that many people are skeptical about the relevance of M2 Money Supply, likely questioning whether it still holds predictive value for Bitcoin’s performance. Global M2 Money Supply To Fuel $140,000 Bitcoin Price Surge According to MoneyLord, the recent disconnect between Bitcoin and M2 data should not be viewed as a failure of the model, but rather as a consequence of aggressive market interference and increased stress across global financial systems. In his technical report released on X, he argued that, without heavy manipulation and the collapse and insolvency of major entities, Bitcoin would have continued to track global liquidity growth. Related Reading: Is It More Profitable To Hold Bitcoin For The Short-Term? 2025 Numbers Are Here MoneyLord believes that those shocks temporarily suppressed BTC’s price expansion, likely contributing to its recent decline and slow momentum. With market conditions somewhat stabilizing, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin is poised to realign with global M2 Money Supply trends, potentially setting the stage for renewed upward momentum.  From this perspective, the current phase is viewed as a delayed reaction rather than a failed cycle. MoneyLord predicts that if Bitcoin begins to catch up with M2 data, the cryptocurrency’s price could hit a target above $140,000 sooner than the market expects. The accompanying chart illustrates this bullish outlook, showing global liquidity, represented by the blue line, continuing to rise toward the projected price.  With Bitcoin trading near $90,000 after a more than 6% decline this month, a rally to $140,000 would require a gain of at least 55%. Reaching this level would set a new all-time high, exceeding its present peak of over $126,000 by more than 10%.  Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Market Sell-Offs According to crypto analyst Don, Bitcoin has bounced back after a period of sharp sell-offs that shook out many traders and triggered widespread liquidations. The analyst noted that bulls have stepped in to reclaim critical support and restore confidence in the market as BTC resumes trading within a well-defined ascending triangle pattern.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses From Entities Surges To 2022 Levels Following Crash Below $90,000 The chart shows that the triangle has an upper boundary near $94,324 and a lower boundary around $89,241. Price action inside the formation suggests that Bitcoin is consolidating and likely building momentum for a potential breakout.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim key resistance as bulls attempt to defend current demand zones. Price action reflects a market under pressure, with momentum fading after a prolonged correction. From its all-time high, Bitcoin has now retraced roughly 30%, placing the asset firmly in a corrective phase where uncertainty and caution dominate trading behavior. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test According to a report from Axel Adler, on-chain data confirms that market stress is no longer limited to price alone. Two key indicators—the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) and the P/L Block—are signaling broad loss realization among participants and a deterioration in overall market sentiment. These metrics provide insight into the behavior of short-term holders, who are often the most sensitive to price swings and macro uncertainty. Together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin remains in a fragile state, where confidence has weakened, and recovery attempts face increasing resistance. STH SOPR and P/L Block Confirm Capitulation Pressure Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or a loss. When the indicator falls below one, it signals that recent buyers are realizing losses. Currently, the 7-day moving average of STH SOPR has slipped into the red zone, with a reading near 0.99. This confirms that short-term holders are, on average, selling Bitcoin below their acquisition price—a behavior typically associated with heightened stress and emotional selling. Historically, similar SOPR conditions have marked local capitulation phases, when selling pressure peaks and weaker hands exit the market. As long as the SOPR 7-day average remains below one, short-term participants stay in “stress mode.” Adler notes that a meaningful improvement would require a sustained move back above one on a daily close, signaling that sellers have exhausted supply and buyers are once again absorbing sell-side pressure. Complementing this signal, the P/L Block indicator tracks the aggregated profit and loss state of market participants. The current red block reflects loss dominance, with a P/L Score of minus three—classified as pronounced stress. With Bitcoin down 30% from its all-time high and 30-day returns negative, both indicators align, reinforcing a clear picture of capitulation among short-term holders. Related Reading: XRP Whale Activity Spikes At The Bottom – A Classic Pre-Rally Signal Bitcoin Price Analysis: Weekly Structure Remains Critical The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading around the $89,900 level after a sharp rejection from the $120,000–$125,000 region. Price has retraced aggressively but is now attempting to stabilize above the rising 200-week moving average (green), a level that has historically defined long-term trend validity. So far, this area is acting as dynamic support, suggesting that buyers are defending higher-cycle structure despite broader market weakness. However, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average (blue), which is now sloping downward. This configuration reflects a loss of medium-term momentum and confirms that the market is still in a corrective phase rather than a resumed uptrend. The 100-week moving average (red) continues to rise well below price, reinforcing that the broader macro trend remains intact, but also highlighting how much excess was built during the prior rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Refuse to Sell: Historic Signal Emerges As Binance CDD Drops To 2017 Levels Volume has declined during the recent consolidation, signaling indecision rather than aggressive accumulation. This typically precedes a volatility expansion. From a structural perspective, holding above the $85,000–$88,000 zone is critical. A sustained breakdown below the 200-week MA would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward the $75,000–$80,000 region. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-week MA near $95,000 would be an early signal that downside pressure is fading. Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with long-term support holding but momentum still fragile. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto pundit Crypto Wimar has explained why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices crashed, highlighting the continuous selling pressure. The crypto market is also at risk of further downward pressure due to macro factors such as the impending Japan rate hike.  Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP Prices Crashed In an X post, Crypto Wimar revealed that Wintermute has dumped 40% of its holdings over the last three weeks, which has contributed to the crash in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices. The crypto pundit further noted that the market maker is still dumping millions in BTC and ETH on Binance, which puts these coins at risk of further declines.  Related Reading: What’s Happening With The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Recently? The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices are also crashing as crypto market investors brace for a Japan interest rate hike by the BOJ at their December 19 meeting. Polymarket data shows that there is currently a 97.4% chance that the BOJ will increase rates by 25 basis points. A Japan rate hike impacts the crypto market as it puts the yen carry trade in focus, with investors moving to sell their assets before the yen strengthens and their debt becomes more expensive.  Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices have crashed after every Fed rate cut this year. This similar price action is playing out as the Fed lowered rates by 25 bps last week. These crypto assets had seen a notable rebound prior to the Fed rate decision last week, indicating that the cut was already priced in.  Demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP also appears to be dwindling, even among institutional investors. Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin treasury growth is losing momentum, noting that the accumulation pace is slowing despite the fact that 117 new companies added BTC to their treasuries this year. Ethereum treasury company BitMine is also the only company that has continued to accumulate ETH at an impressive pace amid this market downturn.  BTC At Risk Of Drop Below $50,000 Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has indicated that the Bitcoin price could still drop below $50,000, which also puts Ethereum and XRP at risk of crashing. In an X post, the analyst raised the possibility that a BTC bear pennant is forming. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes He noted that this is not a structure that market investors will typically want to see in a bull market. Titan of Crypto added that the structure is still developing, but it is one that is worth monitoring closely.  Meanwhile, the analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could drop below $50,000 as soon as February next year. It is worth mentioning that veteran trader Peter Brandt had also earlier predicted that BTC could drop below $50,000 based on his belief that the flagship crypto is already in a bear market. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $90,000 support zone. BTC is now rising and might struggle to clear the $90,500 zone. Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $92,500 zone. The price is trading below $90,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $90,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Aims Fresh Increase Bitcoin price failed to gain strength for a move above the $92,000 and $92,500 levels. BTC started a downside correction and traded below the $90,500 support. The price even spiked below the $88,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $87,500 zone. A low was formed at $87,582 and the price is moving higher. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,561 swing high to the $87,582 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $90,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is near the $90,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $90,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $92,000. A close above the $92,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $92,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $90,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $88,550 level. The first major support is near the $88,000 level. The next support is now near the $87,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $86,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $85,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $88,550, followed by $88,000. Major Resistance Levels – $90,000 and $90,500.

The Bitcoin market has continued to consolidate within the $90,000 price zone over the last day, reflecting a minor 0.04% gain within this period. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has witnessed a steady rally in recent weeks, forming the early phases of an ascending channel. To protect this potential uptrend, recent on-chain data shows that investors are moving to initiate a downside and price in the market effect of an anticipated negative catalyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Retracement Meets Mid-Range Battle – Will Bulls Reclaim Momentum? Bitcoin Sees High Inflows, Negative Funding Rates As Investors Guard Against Rate Hike In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, the crypto analysis page XWIN Research Japan discusses how potential Japan economic developments are presently impacting the Bitcoin market. Notably, analysts and economists expect the Bank of Japan to announce a 25 bps rate hike at its next policy meeting between December 18-19, as the Asian nation moves to end an ultra-loose monetary regime. Interest rate hikes are generally interpreted as bearish catalysts as they force investors to move out of risky assets due to less available capital, thereby inducing a price decline. According to XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin investors may currently be attempting to absorb the resulting price pressure, potentially muting the immediate impact of the primary catalyst itself.   This theory is based on multiple developments, such as exchange netflows. The analysts at XWIN report that exchange inflows are rising to mirror similar levels seen during previous BOJ hikes. Investors are presently exiting exchanges and minimizing their spot exposure to reduce the market impact of the expected decision.  Meanwhile, the funding rates are also declining, another event seen during past rate hikes. Notably, investors are proactively losing their leverage in what is a pre-event caution movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Support As Smart Money Steps In – What This Means For Price What Next For Bitcoin?  At press time, Bitcoin tie valued at $90,190, reflecting a market gain of 0.77% in the past week. With the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pivot largely priced in, XWIN Research says that market focus has shifted away from the rate hike itself toward post-announcement yen dynamics. Going forward, the analysts explain that Bitcoin’s near-term direction may hinge on whether the yen continues to strengthen or if markets respond with a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reversal, signaling that the adjustment phase is already unfolding. With a market cap of $1.67 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency with a current market dominance of 58.2% Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

The price action of Bitcoin has been somewhat limited in the past few weeks, as the bulls and bears battle for dominance in the market. This indecisiveness has had the premier cryptocurrency oscillating between the $89,000 and $93,000 levels in recent weeks. According to the latest on-chain data, this sideways movement exhibited by the Bitcoin price is associated with the uneven distribution of the coin’s total supply around various levels. This recent on-chain evaluation has also identified the possible next stop for the market leader’s price. BTC Price At Risk Of A 20% Decline?  In a December 13 post on the X platform, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost explained that the Bitcoin price is locked in a battle between $89,000 and $93,000. This on-chain observation is based on the distribution of the BTC supply (using the URPD metric) around different price levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Retracement Meets Mid-Range Battle – Will Bulls Reclaim Momentum? The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) metric tracks the amount of a particular cryptocurrency that was traded at a specific price level. When a large amount of coins is traded at a certain price level, the region tends to serve as support when the price trades above it and resistance when the price is beneath it. According to Darkfost, this explains why the Bitcoin price seems stuck within the $89,000 – $93,000 region (the yellow area in the highlighted chart). The market analyst noted that the zone has seen significant trading activity, justifying the oscillation of the BTC price within the range. What’s new is the “distribution gap” (blue area in the chart) in the $74,000 – $80,000 range, which represents a zone with relatively low historical trading activity. Darkfost explained that these low-liquidity regions tend to attract the Bitcoin price in a bid to rebalance supply and demand. As observed in the chart above, this distribution gap lies between the $74,000 – $80,000 range, meaning that the price of BTC could witness a correction to this level before bouncing back to a new high. A correction to this level could be equivalent to a nearly 20% downturn from the current price point. Furthermore, Darkfost noted that 34% of the total BTC supply distribution is now above the psychological $90,000 level. This trend could make $90,000 a structural support level for the price of Bitcoin over time. It is also worth noting that while a large distribution cluster can be seen around $84,000, it should not be over-interpreted. Darkfost mentioned that the distribution level is not as genuine as it looks, but rather a result of Coinbase’s recent Bitcoin movement. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $90,150, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView