Bitcoin price started a downside correction from $94,500. BTC is now struggling and might dip toward the key support at $89,000. Bitcoin started a downside correction and traded below the $92,000 zone. The price is trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $92,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Downside Correction Bitcoin price failed to stay above $94,000 and started a downside correction. BTC dipped below $93,200 and $92,500 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even dipped below $92,000 and tested $90,650. A low was formed at $90,666 and the price is now consolidating losses. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,771 swing high to the $90,666 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $90,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $91,400 level. The first key resistance is near the $92,200 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,771 swing high to the $90,666 low. The next resistance could be $92,500. A close above the $92,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $93,050 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500. More Downsides In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $90,500 level. The first major support is near the $90,000 level. The next support is now near the $89,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $87,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $86,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $90,500, followed by $90,000. Major Resistance Levels – $92,200 and $92,500.
As global geopolitical tensions intensify from trade fragmentation and sanctions to regional conflicts and currency weaponization, Bitcoin is increasingly emerging as a hedge outside the reach of politics. In an environment where traditional financial systems are shaped by state power and cross-border capital controls, BTC’s decentralized design is drawing renewed attention as a form of monetary insurance in an increasingly unstable world. Bitcoin’s Performance During Periods Of Instability The geopolitical tension may boost Bitcoin. Walter Bloomberg has noted on X that BTC’s recent rebound suggests rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly pushing investors toward cryptocurrencies. Walter made reference to 21Shares strategist Matt Mena’s statement, who stated that BTC is gaining recognition as a neutral reserve asset, alongside traditional safe havens such as gold and silver. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Being Absorbed By Powerful Financial Players — What This Means After falling more than 6% last year, BTC has historically avoided back-to-back annual declines, supporting the case for gains this year. BTC was last down 0.3% at $93,740, after reaching a seven-week high of $94,725 on Monday, underscoring its resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Considering most of the world is ecstatic with 8% annual returns, an analyst known as Juicy pointed out that the idea of doubling your money in one or two years is already an exceptional outcome for most average people. The hard truth is that most people will never hold their BTC long enough before they cash out 3 to 5 times their money, especially when BTC is down 50% in a bear market, because most people are emotionally attached to their money. Generational wealth with BTC is made by holding through multiple 50% bear market drawdowns across decades. The expert stated that his strategy is never to fully sell BTC, but to sell small portions at basic milestones like $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million, or even $10 million, while the main stack will not be sold. Extreme Supply And The Shift In Spot Momentum A trader known as DD highlighted that BTC traded directly into extreme supply just below Monday’s high and was aggressively rejected from there. This move was followed by a sharp push lower and was driven by heavy spot selling, confirming that this area remains a significant supply zone rather than a breakout point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks A Year-Long Bear Market If This Happens: On-Chain Data DD recalled the weak weekly low, a level that has now been cleared. The market is now in a phase where the response matters more than a continuation. If the price begins to form local accumulation inside demand, that would present an opportunity to look for long exposure. On the other hand, if BTC bounces back into supply and shows clear signs of weakness, then the short setup will also remain valid. Structurally, losing the $91,000 level will open the door towards the weak monthly low around $87,800, which stands out as the next downside level. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has kicked off 2026 on a good note, starting with the price breaking through the $94,000 barrier in early January, a threshold it hadn’t traded at for weeks. The surge wasn’t the result of a single cause, but rather a convergence of changing power between buying and selling pressure, improving institutional interest, on-chain signals pointing to a stabilizing market, and unexpected political developments in Venezuela that seem to have contributed to an appetite for risk assets. Geopolitical Risk-On Sentiment And Institutional Flows One of the important forces behind Bitcoin’s push towards $94,000 was the willingness among investors to take on risk across global markets, a mood shift that was shaped in part by dramatic political developments in Venezuela. News that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces caused a chain reaction through equities, commodities and crypto, lifting risk-on sentiment as traders assessed the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the event. Perhaps the most interesting news event is the chatter around a potential Venezuelan shadow $60 billion Bitcoin reserve. This backdrop of rising confidence played into a broader return of institutional capital to Bitcoin. US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted significant net inflows at the start of 2026, with $116.95 million coming in on Friday, January 2 and $123.52 million coming in on Monday, January 5. These inflows helped lift the price of Bitcoin back into the low $90,000s and provided traction as buyers stepped in after the new year holiday lull. On-Chain Metrics Shows A Changing Market Tone According to analytical data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s market structure is stabilizing in the $80,000 to $95,000 range, sell pressure is beginning to fade, and momentum is beginning to recover. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index have moved into an upper-neutral zone, which shows a build-up in upside potential. Spot liquidity, though still thin, has expanded modestly without signs of speculative excess. Related Reading: Same XRP Setup That Led To Over 1,000% Increase In 2017 Is Playing Out Again Glassnode noted that open interest is rebuilding cautiously and that options markets point to short-term volatility, which is a sign of both increasing participation and lingering sensitivity to profit-taking. On-chain activity also shows a reduction in sell-side aggression alongside modestly improving spot volumes. However, Glassnode noted that structural demand is still subdued, and this places the recovery above $90,000 as a fragile one. Bitcoin Price Momentum. Source: @glassnode on X Related Reading: Early XRP Investors Sell-Offs Keep Price Low, Here’s How They’re Doing It These on-chain activities, alongside news events, worked together to help Bitcoin clear a technical hurdle at $90,000 which served as resistance throughout December 2025. The question now is whether this move signals the start of a sustained advance back above $100,000 or a temporary peak within a still-uneven market landscape. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,780, down by 0.5% from its intraday high of $94,343. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin Funding Rates have increased across the various exchanges, but still not to a high degree. Bitcoin Perps Funding Rates Have Surged In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Funding Rates for the major perpetual futures markets. The “Funding Rate” is an indicator that measures the amount of periodic fees that traders on the futures market are exchanging between each other on a given derivatives platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation: Data Shows Institutions Are Net Buyers Again When the value of this metric is positive, it means the long holders are paying a premium to the shorts in order to hold onto their position. Such a trend implies a bullish mentality is dominant in the market. On the other hand, the indicator being below the zero mark suggests the shorts outweigh the longs and a bearish sentiment is shared by the majority of traders on the exchange. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Funding Rate for major exchanges over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has witnessed an increase across these platforms recently, indicating that investors have been setting up fresh bullish positions. The mean Funding Rate for these exchanges dropped to the 0% mark back in November as the cryptocurrency’s price went through a crash. As the asset settled into its consolidation phase, investors gradually set up longs, culminating in the indicator recovering to 0.005%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ends: Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal In the last 24 hours, however, the mean Funding Rate has retraced back to 0.003%, implying some investors have closed up their long positions after the latest recovery rally and/or others have set up shorts to bet against the bullish price action. In the past, major rallies have tended to occur alongside notable positive Funding Rates on the different exchanges. According to Glassnode, the threshold has generally lied at 0.001%. Since the mean Funding Rate is still below this level, the analytics firm has noted, “current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.” BTC Broke Above $94,000 Before Retracing Down Bitcoin has seen the renewal of bullish momentum recently, with its price recovering as high as $94,700, but the past day has seen a setback for the digital asset as it’s now back at $92,100. Other cryptocurrencies have also been volatile to varying degrees in the past day, which has resulted in liquidations of over $500 million on the derivatives exchanges, as data from CoinGlass shows. Out of these $503 million in liquidations, about $146 million of the positions involved were Bitcoin-related ones. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
After breaking above a crucial resistance level, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to retest this area as support to potentially challenge new highs. An analyst affirmed that this reclaim holds the keys for the flagship crypto’s next major move. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Q1 Outlook: Analyst Shares Historical Setup As Price Nears Key Resistance Bitcoin Weekly Close Eyes New Targets Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has reclaimed the upper zone of its multi-month price range and is retesting the $94,000 area for the first time in nearly a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading sideways since the late November correction, which sent price to an eight-month low of $80,600. During this period, BTC has been hovering between the $86,200-$93,500 levels in the weekly timeframe, facing strong resistance around the mid-zone of the range. However, the flagship crypto was able to close the previous week above the $90,500 resistance, enabling a move toward the key upper boundary. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the $93,500 area is a crucial level for the cryptocurrency’s upcoming price action, noting that Bitcoin was rejected from the $93,500 area for most of Q4. Now, price is challenging this level again, “which is not just the Range High resistance of the Weekly Range but is also a confluent resistance with the multi-week Downtrend that has plagued price since forming in mid-October 2025.” Rekt Capital pointed out that this level could likely become a macro resistance as price performed its 12-month candle close below it. “Across Four Year Cycles, such resistances tend to resist price for ~3 years before finally being broken in the Halving Year,” he explained. He added that if BTC has begun a Bear Market, “what this translates to is that price could overextend beyond $93500 over the coming months in order to solidify a Macro Lower High before continuing lower.” As a result, this level would only be successfully reclaimed in the next halving year in 2028. BTC’s Most Important Technical Test Despite the potential macro resistance, the analyst affirmed that a weekly reclaim or short-term rejection of the $93,500 level “isn’t as important as the general direction BTC seems poised to continue to pursue: BTC wants to return above $93.5k.” A weekly close above this level, followed by a post-breakout retest, would confirm a successful breakout from the weekly range and the weekly downtrend. Notably, the cryptocurrency showed a similar performance during the Q2-Q3 2025 recovery, when price broke out of the downtrend, reclaimed the $93,500 area, and retested it for a few weeks before a move to higher levels. This would also build a base for a challenge of the converging bull market Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which were lost during the Q4 2025 corrections. Per the chart, the 50-week EMA and 21-week EMA currently sit around the $97,000-$98,000 levels. “History suggests there’s a good chance price will break beyond these EMAs,” Rekt Capital affirmed, but cautioned that it also suggests Bitcoin won’t be able to successfully turn these levels into a new support. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Shiba Inu Price Jumped Over 13% “If price indeed breaks down from the EMAs, then retesting them as resistance from the underside during their crossover would be a bearish signal,” he warned. As a result, the flagship crypto’s “most important technical milestone” will be reclaiming the EMAs as support to confirm bull market momentum. Nonetheless, “a Range breakout and a Weekly Downtrend breach are essential in the first place for BTC to get closer to those EMAs,” he concluded. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $93,330, a 4.8% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is attempting to extend its recovery after reclaiming the $90,000 level, a move that has brought cautious optimism back into the market following weeks of consolidation and selling pressure. While price action alone still falls short of confirming a renewed uptrend, on-chain data suggests that underlying market conditions may be stabilizing beneath the surface. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows According to top analyst Axel Adler, the On-Chain Pressure Oscillator is offering an important lens into current market dynamics. The indicator, which aggregates exchange netflows, short-term holder realized profit and loss, and long-term coin spending into a single percentile-based signal, is currently sitting around the 46 level. Historically, this zone has been associated with accumulation phases rather than distribution. What stands out in the current reading is the absence of aggressive sellers. Exchange inflows remain muted, indicating that investors are not rushing to move coins to trading venues. At the same time, older coins are largely dormant, suggesting that long-term holders are not capitulating despite recent volatility. Short-term holders remain under pressure, but their losses appear contained, limiting forced selling. Together, these factors point to a market that is deleveraged and relatively balanced, with sell-side pressure constrained more by a lack of supply than by surging demand. Short-Term Holder Stress Keeps Sell-Side Pressure Contained Adler adds that recent movements in the On-Chain Pressure Oscillator reinforce the idea that Bitcoin is still locked in a consolidation regime. While the daily readings of the oscillator have softened over the past few sessions, the smoothed trend remains broadly stable. Historically, similar configurations have tended to appear during pause phases, when the market digests prior moves before committing to a new direction. Importantly, this stability suggests that sell-side pressure from key cohorts remains muted, even as demand has yet to show a decisive expansion. The main risk to this structure would be a sustained breakdown in the smoothed oscillator below neutral levels. Such a move would indicate a shift away from accumulation toward distribution, signaling that sellers are regaining control. This dynamic is closely linked to Bitcoin’s position relative to the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price. With BTC trading below the average cost basis of holders who entered within the last five months, most short-term participants are currently underwater. This limits their ability to take profits and reduces immediate selling incentives. As a result, sell pressure remains constrained despite recent price weakness. However, this balance may change if Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 area. A return to breakeven for short-term holders could unlock supply and create resistance. A healthier signal would be price reclaiming the STH realized level while the oscillator strengthens, confirming renewed demand rather than mere absence of selling. Related Reading: Memecoin Strength Returns After Historic Market Decline: A Setup For A Comeback? Bitcoin Rebounds From December Lows but Faces Heavy Overhead Resistance Bitcoin is trading near the $94,000 area after rebounding sharply from the December lows around $82,000–$84,000. The chart shows a clear recovery leg following a steep corrective phase that unfolded after the October peak near $125,000. While the bounce has restored short-term momentum, the broader structure remains technically constrained. Price is currently reclaiming the short-term moving average, which has started to curl upward and act as dynamic support. This is a constructive development, suggesting that downside momentum has eased and buyers are regaining some control. However, Bitcoin remains below the mid- and long-term moving averages, which are still sloping downward. These levels, clustered between roughly $100,000 and $105,000, represent a significant overhead resistance zone that bulls must clear to reestablish a bullish trend. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Setup Advances: CEX Volume Hits Cycle Highs Despite Price Weakness Selling pressure peaked during the November–December breakdown, while the current rebound has occurred on more moderate volume, indicating stabilization rather than aggressive accumulation. Structurally, the market appears to be transitioning from a sharp sell-off into a consolidation and recovery phase. Holding above the $90,000–$92,000 region is critical to maintain this constructive setup. A failure to defend this zone would expose Bitcoin to renewed downside risk, while a sustained move above the declining moving averages would signal a more durable shift in market direction. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
After a phase of net Bitcoin selling, on-chain data suggests institutional entities have started accumulating the cryptocurrency once more. Bitcoin Rose Over 41% The Last Time Institutions Turned Into Net Buyers As pointed out by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards in an X post, institutions have once again turned into net buyers of Bitcoin. Below is the chart shared by Edwards that shows the trend in institutional behavior over the last few years. From the graph, it’s visible that institutional investors switched their behavior to selling back in October as Bitcoin observed a bearish shift following its price top above $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ends: Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal The distribution calmed down as the cryptocurrency stabilized into a phase of consolidation in December, with a turn to positive levels starting to appear. The metric has now grown further in the new year, a potential sign that institutional behavior may really be changing to one of net accumulation. In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the price moves that followed shifts to net buying from these humongous traders in the past. It would appear that, on average, Bitcoin rose 109% after this signal appeared. Though the individual outcomes have seen high variance, ranging from a rally of 390% after the 2020 signal to a drop of 13% in 2024. The last time that the signal appeared was in the first half of 2025 and what followed was a price surge of 41%. It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will be affected this time around. A notable pillar of institutional buying in the sector today is represented by the treasury companies. Like the wider institutional behavior, these entities were also net sellers of Bitcoin late last year, as Edwards has highlighted in another X post. The above chart shows the trend in the 30-day rate of change in the Buy-Sell Ratio associated with BTC treasuries, a metric that compares their cumulative USD buying against selling. It would appear that the indicator has just flipped positive in 2026. “Bitcoin treasury companies just flipped to net buying again,” noted the analyst. Related Reading: PEPE Explodes 62%, But Analyst Warns Of Breakdown Retest Strategy, the largest corporate treasury holder of the cryptocurrency in the world, kept accumulating even as the asset observed its bearish shift. But the buying from the firm wasn’t enough, as the rate of change in the Buy-Sell Ratio still plunged into the negative zone In November. BTC Price Bitcoin has shown a move away from stagnation during the last few days as its price has climbed back to the $93,800 level. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $92,500. BTC is now correcting some gains and might revisit the $90,500 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $92,000 zone. The price is trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $93,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $90,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price remained supported above the $91,500 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $92,200 and $92,500 resistance levels. It even spiked above $94,000 before there was a pullback. The price dipped and tested the $91,250 level. Recently, it recovered and climbed to $93,771 and now shows signs of another decline. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $91,230 swing low to the $93,771 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $92,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $93,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $93,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $93,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $94,000. A close above the $94,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $95,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $95,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $96,200 and $96,500. More Downsides In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $93,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $92,000 level. The first major support is near the $91,800 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $91,230 swing low to the $93,771 high. The next support is now near the $90,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $90,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $90,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $92,000, followed by $90,500. Major Resistance Levels – $93,500 and $94,000.
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin miner capitulation may have ended as the Hash Ribbons indicator has printed a fresh buy signal. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Have Seen A Bullish Crossover As highlighted by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards in a new X post, the Hash Ribbons has just given a signal for Bitcoin. The “Hash Ribbons” here refers to a metric created by Edwards that basically provides a representation of the miners’ situation. Related Reading: PEPE Explodes 62%, But Analyst Warns Of Breakdown Retest It does so by comparing two moving averages (MAs) of the “Hashrate,” an indicator that measures the total amount of computing power that the miners have connected to the network. When the value of this metric rises, it suggests existing miners are expanding their facilities and/or new ones are joining the blockchain. Such a trend implies these validators may be finding BTC mining to be an attractive venture. On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests some of the miners have decided to disconnect from the network, potentially because they are no longer able to break even on mining activities. The Hash Ribbons aims to pinpoint when one of these behaviors becomes dominant. The 30-day and 60-day MAs of the Hashrate play the role of the “ribbons” and their crossovers provide signals for shifts in miners’ condition. The 30-day MA moving below the 60-day one is considered to signal the start of a “miner capitulation.” In this phase, miners are under pressure and BTC may arrive at a bottom. The reverse crossover implies the return of conviction among miners, which has often been followed by bullish price action. Below is the chart for the Hash Ribbons shared by the analyst that shows the signals that Bitcoin has witnessed over the last few years. As is visible in the graph, the 30-day MA of the Bitcoin Hashrate fell below the 60-day ribbon last year as miners reduced their computing power in response to the bearish price action in the cryptocurrency. After a period of staying in the capitulation region, the reverse crossover has now finally occurred, meaning that the situation of the miners is improving, at least from the perspective of the Hash Ribbons. From the chart, it’s visible that this kind of “buy signal” occurred at some key points in the last few years. The recovery from 2022 bear market in 2023, for example, took place after a bullish crossover in the Hash Ribbons. The mini-bear phase in mid-2021 also broke with a buy signal from the indicator. Related Reading: Dogecoin Heading To $0.08? Analyst Thinks So—Here’s Why It now remains to be seen whether positive price action will also follow for Bitcoin after the latest signal. BTC Price Bitcoin has shot up over the last few days as its price has returned back to the $94,100 level. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $92,000. BTC is now showing bullish signs but might struggle to clear the $95,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $92,200 zone. The price is trading above $92,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $92,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $92,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Reaches Key Resistance Bitcoin price remained supported above the $91,200 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $92,000 and $92,200 resistance levels. It even surpassed $94,000. A new multi-week high was formed at $94,783 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $90,805 swing low to the $94,783 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $92,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $92,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $92,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $94,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $94,500 level. The next resistance could be $95,000. A close above the $95,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $95,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $96,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $97,000 and $97,200. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $94,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $93,200 level. The first major support is near the $92,800 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $90,805 swing low to the $94,783 high. The next support is now near the $92,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $91,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $90,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $92,800, followed by $92,500. Major Resistance Levels – $94,500 and $95,000.
Bitcoin’s current cycle has challenged nearly every assumption traders rely on to identify a full market cycle. Price has climbed steadily over the past two years, but the explosive move that points to the late stages of a Bitcoin bull phase has been absent. According to an analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Sykodelic, the confusion is due to a structural change that separates this cycle from every major Bitcoin rally that came before it. The difference is not psychological or technical in the usual sense of a four-year cycle. Liquidity Difference In This Cycle The disconnect between Bitcoin’s current price action and previous four-year cycles has led to questions among crypto analysts over whether the cycle has already peaked or if something different is influencing its behavior beneath the surface. For instance, during the 2020-2021 bull market, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with a period of extreme liquidity expansion. Bitcoin followed that inflowinto a classic parabolic blow-off once liquidity conditions reached their most expansive point. The chart shared by Sykodelic shows this trend clearly. The liquidity index peaked near the price top in 2021 after a stretch of growth from the quantitative expansion in late 2019. This was followed by a fall that aligned with the 2022 bear market, which eventually ended with the bear market bottom. Related Reading: XRP Price Will Not Hit $1,000 In 2026, Analyst Reveals Best Timeline Interestingly, that pattern of Bitcoin’s price action following the liquidity index has repeated in every previous bullish cycle. This time, the structure is inverted. The liquidity index did not peak around Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high above $126,000. Instead, the liquidity has been ranging and only recently began stabilizing back around levels seen during the 2022 bear market bottom. One of the most unusual aspects of this cycle is how far Bitcoin has already traveled despite limited liquidity support. Sykodelic points out that Bitcoin advanced from the $15,000 region to well above $100,000 while global liquidity was range-bound, a trend that has never happened before. Bitcoin/US Dollar. Source: @Sykodelic_ on X Why The Parabola Has Been Delayed, Not Cancelled The absence of a parabolic surge has led many to assume the cycle is nearing exhaustion. However, Sykodelic argues the opposite. According to his interpretation of the global liquidity index, Bitcoin is not transitioning into a late-stage distribution phase but is currently bouncing from a liquidity trough. Previous crypto cycles relied heavily on unpredictable flows of money, but this cycle has leaned on new structural demand sources. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced persistent institutional inflows, while government-level adoption has changed Bitcoin’s role in crypto investment portfolios. Related Reading: Popular Crypto Founder Dumps Millions In Ethereum, Here’s What He’s Buying Furthermore, the AI-stock boom has led to traditional equity markets absorbing much of the available liquidity, leaving less capital to rotate aggressively into altcoins and broader crypto markets. The chart shows liquidity beginning to turn upward just as quantitative tightening winds down and liquidity conditions start to increase. The projection is that once the liquidity starts to rise and quantitative easing expands, then Bitcoin might start the missing parabolic behavior that will take it to new price highs. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are rising today, with the flagship crypto rising to as high as $93,000. This market rally comes on the back of several factors, including the U.S.-Venezuela escalations, which have increased risk sentiment. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Are Up In an X post, market commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted that risky assets seem to be gaining momentum despite the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan president Maduro. This suggests risk sentiment may be back after the year-end decline in 2025, which has contributed to the recent rise in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices. Related Reading: Here’s How Much BlackRock Spent Buying Bitcoin And Ethereum In 2025 The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are also rising on the back of an increase in the M2 money supply, which now stands at $22.4 trillion, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. This is bullish for crypto assets as some of this liquidity is expected to flow into the crypto ecosystem. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt continues to rise, standing at $38.6 trillion, a development that is bullish for crypto as investors hedge against inflation by allocating to these asset classes. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the Fed has also been carrying out its Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), which experts such as James Lavish have described as a form of quantitative easing (QE), which is positive for the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has even predicted that BTC could rally to as high as $200,000 on the back of this move from the Fed. Meanwhile, the Fed has also been injecting liquidity into the economy through the New York Fed’s repo operations. Crypto Bulls Are Back In Control Market analyst Ted Pilliows also suggested that the crypto bulls are back in control, which is why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are rising. In an X post, he noted that BTC has large sell orders from the $92,000 to $95,000 level on Binance. Ted added that if bulls push BTC above the $95,000 level, there is very little resistance until $100,000, suggesting a rally to this psychological level could be on the cards. Related Reading: Dogecoin Reclaiming $0.128 Support Could Signal The Perfect Chance For Long Positions In another X post, the market analyst noted that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium is recovering, with institutional demand for BTC picking up again. SoSoValue data show that Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $471.14 million on January 2, their largest since December 17. A sustained daily net inflow could lead to higher prices for BTC, which is also a positive for the Ethereum and Dogecoin prices. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $92,400, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
On Monday, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $93,000 mark, spurred by a wave of renewed optimism that has also revitalized altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), all of which are experiencing recoveries not seen in nearly a month. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has recorded a weekly surge of 7%, while Ethereum and Solana have outperformed the leading cryptocurrency with increases of nearly 9% during the same period. Notably, XRP has taken the lead, boasting a significant 15% uptrend. Large Holders Drive Bitcoin Surge A key driver behind this recent surge, especially for Bitcoin, can be attributed to large holders, or “whales,” who have acquired approximately 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, amounting to roughly $23 billion. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price On The Brink Of A 9,000% Rally To $10? What Historical Performance Shows Market analyst NoLimit highlighted this crucial development in a recent social media post, noting its significance: this accumulation represents 1.3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and marks the largest net buy from this group in 13 years. However, NoLimit asserts that this doesn’t imply that Bitcoin will see an immediate surge in its value. It indicates that long-term investors are aggressively positioning themselves even while the broader market sentiment remains mixed. Will BTC Establish A Macro Lower High? In the short term, though, market analyst Rekt Capital warns that despite Bitcoin hovering just above $93,400, it has closed its 12-month candle below the $93,500 mark. This suggests that the $93,500 level is likely to act as resistance moving forward. Historical patterns across four-year cycles indicate that such resistances can hinder price movement for an extended period, often resisting for up to three years before being breached in the next Halving year. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows Should Bitcoin indeed be in the early stages of a bear market, this could imply that prices might surpass the $93,500 resistance in the coming months only to establish a macro lower high before continuing their downward trajectory. According to Rekt Capital, the sustainable breakout above this resistance is more likely to occur in the next halving year in 2028. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin was designed as a decentralized monetary network with no single point of control, but the structure of its ownership is quietly evolving. As issuance declines and liquidity thins, a growing share of the BTC circulating supply has been moving into the hands of powerful financial institutions, resulting in a steady accumulation that reshapes the dynamics of the BTC market, liquidity, and long-term distribution. Does Institutional Adoption Change Bitcoin’s Purpose? The financial-industrial complex is in the process of centralizing as much Bitcoin as possible. Crypto investor Simon Dixon has revealed on X that institutions want to accumulate BTC as a useful tool for managing the final capital outflow squeeze once it is ready, following its Western asset-stripping operations. Related Reading: Why The 2025 Close Below $100,000 Is Terrible For The Bitcoin Price As BTC is a proof-of-work, accumulating it does not grant governance control or long-term price discovery. However, the accumulation does provide the tools needed to manage short-term price action. Institutions are in the accumulation phase, and they want self-custody for themselves and institutional custody for everybody else. Therefore, they can channel large capital flows into BTC while preserving an exit tool for sovereign wealth. This is similar to how the British Empire utilized tax haven islands as escape valves. According to Simon, BTC is one of their exit strategies for managing sovereign wealth in a world where custody of vast gold reserves requires trusted custodians. Nothing has changed in terms of how to prepare, and the strategy remains to own more BTC in self-custody this month than the previous month. Any price suppression now is an opportunity; it won’t last. Furthermore, the financial-industrial complex will engineer volatility through instruments like MicroStrategy and its derivatives ecosystem to margin-call as much BTC as possible while building more leverage tools. This isn’t about crypto, but a Silicon Valley liquidity grift, which is a way to supplement VC returns with added liquidity layered on top of private equity. Crypto is a technical industrial complex operation to build out the digital control grid. Why Bitcoin As A Financial Lifeboat The lesson of Venezuela is the best advertisement for Bitcoin ever created. Investor Fred Krueger noted that those who still had Bolivars in 2016 when hyperinflation began had a clear chance to accumulate BTC when it was trading below $1,000. Instead, they lost absolutely everything. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped In 2018, when the regime rolled out the Petro, buying BTC instead would have delivered over 30% in returns. That altcoin that represented oil was limited and was shelved in 2024. This is the lesson for the BRICS. “Maduro and his inner circle probably owned very little BTC, believing they would remain in power forever, but a lot of them are regretting that today,” Fred noted. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $92,000 level after spending several days trapped below $90,000, offering a brief sense of relief to a market that has remained under pressure since late 2025. The rebound has helped stabilize short-term sentiment, but confidence remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that 2026 could evolve into a broader bear market, citing weak spot demand, fading momentum, and persistent sell-side activity from larger participants. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Setup Advances: CEX Volume Hits Cycle Highs Despite Price Weakness Against this backdrop, macro headlines have re-entered the conversation. An analysis from XWIN Research Japan points to reports of a potential US military intervention in Venezuela, which have revived geopolitical risk concerns across global markets. Historically, such developments tend to increase volatility and push investors toward defensive positioning. However, Bitcoin’s reaction cannot be judged by price alone, particularly in an environment dominated by derivatives and algorithmic flows. On-chain behavior offers a more precise lens. Exchange Netflow data is especially relevant during periods of geopolitical stress, as it reflects whether holders are preparing to sell or choosing to stay sidelined. When fear dominates, exchange inflows typically surge as participants move coins onto platforms. Conversely, muted inflows or continued outflows suggest that investors are not rushing to reduce exposure, even amid unsettling headlines. Exchange Netflows Suggest Caution, Not Panic The analysis places the current geopolitical headlines into a broader historical context. During past military conflicts—most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and more recent flare-ups in the Middle East—Bitcoin often experienced sharp but short-lived price volatility. However, on-chain data told a calmer story. Exchange Netflow, which captures whether coins are being moved onto exchanges to sell or withdrawn for holding, rarely deteriorated in a sustained way during those events. Since 2023, the market has shown a growing ability to absorb localized geopolitical shocks without triggering widespread liquidation behavior. The situation surrounding Venezuela appears consistent with that pattern. While headlines have introduced uncertainty and contributed to short-term price sensitivity, there is no meaningful surge of Bitcoin moving onto exchanges. The absence of elevated inflows suggests that investors are not reacting with panic. Instead, the market seems to be monitoring developments while maintaining existing exposure. Historically, Bitcoin’s more pronounced on-chain reactions have been tied to structural economic threats rather than isolated military actions. Events such as US–China trade tensions, aggressive regulatory shifts, or capital control measures tend to impact global liquidity and investor freedom more directly, leaving clearer footprints in exchange flows. At this stage, the Venezuela narrative has not crossed into that category. Exchange Netflow behavior indicates a market on alert, but not in retreat. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance After Relief Rally Bitcoin has staged a notable rebound, reclaiming the $92,000 level after spending several days struggling below $90,000. On the chart, this move stands out as a relief rally following a sharp breakdown from the $105,000–$110,000 region earlier in Q4. However, the broader structure still reflects a market in consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Price is currently trading below the declining short-term moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic resistance since the November sell-off. While BTC has managed to reclaim ground above the 200-day moving average (red), this level is still relatively flat, signaling stabilization rather than renewed bullish momentum. The medium-term moving average (green) around the $100,000 area remains a critical barrier that bulls have not yet challenged meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Liquidity Rebuilds On Binance: December Inflows Signal Strategic Repositioning The recent bounce occurred with moderate participation, lacking the expansion typically associated with strong trend continuation. This suggests short covering and tactical buying rather than broad-based demand returning to the market. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be forming a range between roughly $88,000 and $96,000. Holding above the lower bound would keep the consolidation intact, while a failure back below $88,000 would reopen downside risk toward the mid-$80,000s. For now, the price action reflects relief and stabilization, but confirmation of a sustainable uptrend still requires a decisive reclaim of higher resistance levels. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a major increase above $91,200. BTC is now showing bullish signs and might extend gains above $93,000. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $91,200 zone. The price is trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $91,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $91,200 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes More Upsides Bitcoin price remained supported above the $90,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $90,500 and $91,200 resistance levels. It even surpassed $92,000. A new multi-week high was formed at $93,333 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $90,804 swing low to the $93,333 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $91,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $91,500, it could attempt a fresh recovery wave. Immediate resistance is near the $93,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $93,500 level. The next resistance could be $94,000. A close above the $94,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $95,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,500 and $95,800. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $93,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $92,200 level. The first major support is near the $92,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $90,804 swing low to the $93,333 high. The next support is now near the $91,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $90,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $90,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $92,000, followed by $91,500. Major Resistance Levels – $93,200 and $94,000.
A popular market analyst has shared two possible price trajectories for Bitcoin following the asset’s bullish start to 2026. In the past three days, the premier cryptocurrency has gained by 3.4% to trade at $90,500. Bitcoin now lies at a decision point as multiple implications hinge on the next price move. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Whale Comeback Story May Be Overblown, Onchain Data Shows $123,500 Rebound Or $86,000 Pullback: What Next For Bitcoin? In an X post on January 3, pseudonymous analyst Bitcoin Meraklisi shares a two-pronged price analysis of the Bitcoin market. Following its recent rally, the expert explains that Bitcoin sits on top of a three-month downtrend, putting the asset at a decision point. In the bullish scenario of a decisive and convincing breakout past $90,500, Bitcoin is expected to immediately reach $94,800. If this target is met, there would be a strong potential to trade as high as $107,300, moving Bitcoin into the six-figure zones for the first time since mid-November. With an overwhelming bullish conviction, Meraklisi states that the premier cryptocurrency could also rebound to $123,500, representing a potential 36.5% on present market prices. On the other hand, if Bitcoin experiences another rejection, the analyst explains investors should expect an initial price drop to $88,000. However, a continued pullback to around $86,000 also remains on the card. Interestingly, Bitcoin Meraklisi notes that price prediction is presently difficult, considering the market’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic and external events. Over the past year, Bitcoin continued to experience growing adoption, reflected in rising institutional and government participation. However, the premier cryptocurrency has also suffered price declines due to geopolitical tensions and renewed trade-war concerns Related Reading: Why The Ethereum Price Could Bounce Above $3,500 Soon Bitcoin RSI Flashes Positive Signal Amid the present market uncertainty, Meraklisi also notes that the Bitcoin relative strength index is showing a positive market signal after breaking out of an ascending triangle pattern to end a 3-month downtrend. If treated as a leading signal, this RSI breakout suggests that Bitcoin may overcome its current resistance level and potentially transition into a bullish price trajectory. At press time, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at $90,603, reflecting market gains of 0.76% and 3.13% in the last one and seven days, respectively. However, the monthly chart reports a minor loss of 1.68%, suggesting the market recovery is yet to commence. Bitcoin boasts a total market cap of $1.8 trillion and is ranked the largest cryptocurrency and eight largest asset in the world. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price had more of a mixed performance than an outright negative showing in 2025. The market leader made a play for a new all-time high above $100,000 as early as January, but struggled to keep its six-figure valuation as the year wound down. The Bitcoin price has started the new year in a similar fashion to 2025, making its way above the $90,000 mark. However, the market uncertainty is at a record high, with no one knowing what to expect from the digital asset market in 2026. BTC Price Consolidating In Symmetrical Triangle — What Next? In a January 3 post on the social media platform X, market analyst Ali Martinez painted a bullish picture for the Bitcoin price. The crypto pundit postulated that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be gearing up for an upward 15% price move in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Rally To All-Time Highs If It Breaks This Resistance Level The rationale behind this optimistic prediction is the appearance of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour timeframe of the Bitcoin price chart. The symmetrical triangle is a technical analysis pattern characterized by a diagonal falling upper trendline (connecting the swing highs) and a diagonally rising lower trendline (along the swing lows). In this symmetrical triangle chart formation, the asset price (BTC, in this case) typically contracts and moves toward the apex. The Bitcoin price eventually breaches either the upper trendline for a breakout or crosses the lower boundary, forming a breakdown. Hence, the symmetrical triangle pattern could provide a continuation or reversal signal depending on the direction of the break. It is worth mentioning that symmetrical triangles tend to be continuation break patterns, meaning the price tends to break in the initial trend direction before entering into the triangle pattern. If this theory holds in the current scenario, the Bitcoin price is likely to continue its upward movement after breaking the upper trendline here. The critical resistance in the upper trendline lies around the $91,000 region, and the flagship cryptocurrency needs a sustained close of at least two candlesticks above this level to confirm a bullish breakout. The price target is determined by adding the length of the widest point of the triangle (or base) to the breakout point. Based on this calculation, Martinez put forward a target above $102,000 for the Bitcoin price, representing a 15% surge from the current price point. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $91,560, reflecting an over 1% increase in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K Featured image from DALL.E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has entered a choppy weekend range, testing traders’ patience as price action slows and volatility compresses. Despite the sideways movement, a critical trend line just below current levels remains intact, keeping the broader market outlook cautious but far from broken. Bitcoin Drifts Into A Typical Weekend Range According to a recent update by Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin has entered a typical weekend range. Weekend trading is often characterized by low liquidity and choppy price action, which can make moves less predictable and more prone to false signals. Snyder is taking a cautious approach, waiting for a clear trigger at the boundaries of this range before committing to any trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Key Moving Averages Indicate An Imminent Drop To $38,000 Snyder notes that the $90,930 level could present a strong shorting opportunity if a liquidity sweep occurs and the price fails to hold. On the other hand, if Bitcoin demonstrates strength and manages to break above this threshold, it could signal bullish momentum, making long positions potentially attractive for traders looking to capitalize on a breakout. Similarly, the lower boundary near $88,430 is critical. A sweep below this level followed by a quick reversal could offer long positions. However, if the support fails and the market structure breaks, it would likely trigger continuation shorts. These levels act as key decision points where traders can gauge whether momentum favors buyers or sellers in the short term. Snyder emphasizes that these setups are primarily scalp trades, with lower risk exposure. The expert only executes trades when all confirmation signals align, ensuring that a clear technical rationale backs each position. Looking ahead, external factors could add more volatility to Bitcoin’s price action. Geopolitical tensions and the return of major market participants next week are expected to increase trading volume and momentum, potentially turning these weekend range moves into larger trends. BTC Holds Key Investor Tool Model Support Around $83,900 Crypto analyst Patel recently highlighted that Bitcoin is holding a key support level known as the Investor Tool Model Support, situated around $83,900, which also coincides with the 730-day moving average. This level has historically acted as a major pivot for Bitcoin, helping to gauge the broader market trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags According to Patel, a decisive break below this support has historically signaled the start of a confirmed bear market, while holding above it typically points to a corrective phase rather than a long-term downtrend. In other words, this level serves as a critical dividing line between temporary pullbacks and structural weakness. Currently, the $83,900 zone is a key area to watch closely. Price action around this support could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory or risks entering a more extended bearish phase, making it a pivotal point for decision-making in the market. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
The price of Bitcoin seems to be positioning for a renewed bullish phase following its positive start to the new year. The premier cryptocurrency closed 2025 with a range-bound price performance, recording no significant movement in the past month of December. However, beneath this early price strength, recent on-chain evaluation reveals that Bitcoin may be at a critical point, where positive price action contrasts with underlying market dynamics. Negative Ratios Don’t Mean Price Bottoms: Alphractal CEO Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson recently took to X to explain what a negative Sharpe Ratio could mean for the Bitcoin price. For context, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is a metric that measures how efficiently Bitcoin’s returns compensate investors for the level of volatility (risk) taken over a given period. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K Readings above 1 from this metric signal a healthy market, where investors are getting rewards for their stakes. On the other hand, values under 0 typically indicate that the market is in a high-risk, low-return state. Simply put, Bitcoin’s investors, in this scenario, are not being efficiently rewarded for their contributed capital. As observed in the chart above, the ratio recently slipped below the 0 threshold. Seeing as this is occurring while price regains previous levels, it becomes clear that there is an inefficiency between risk allocation and returns. Wedson further shared, based on historical data, that Bitcoin typically displays its best performance when its Sharpe Ratio is well above zero, particularly at levels 1 and above. This positive signal is usually proof of a consistent state of balance between risk and reward. In contrast, negative readings often correlate with prolonged consolidation periods, choppy price movements, or even cycle transitions, providing context to long-term investors on current market dynamics. Historically, these periods have appeared during cooling phases, or before sentiment resets, rather than precisely at market bottoms. By extension, this means that while downside risk may not be high, upside efficiency remains limited until market conditions see relevant improvement. Ultimately, Wedson concluded that the current level of the Sharpe Ratio calls for cautious optimism, especially as the low doesn’t necessarily mean the bottom is in. Bitcoin Price 2026 Outlook After closing 2025 in the red, the question has been swirling around how the Bitcoin price would perform in the new year. While various verdicts have filtered across the crypto community, weighted sentiment suggests that the market leader would continue its struggles in 2026. The lack of apparent demand growth shows that BTC might have already entered a bear market, with the bottom not due until the last quarter of 2026. In essence, the premier cryptocurrency might see an extended period of correction over the next few months. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $89,886, reflecting a 1.4% price jump over the past day. Related Reading: XRP Faces Strong Social Discontent—Is A 50% Bullish Reversal Just Around The Corner? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price and crypto market might have lagged behind the global financial market in terms of performance following the Christmas holiday. The story was a little different for the digital asset market after the New Year’s holiday, with altcoins specifically enjoying the bulk of the rally. On Friday, January 2nd, the premier cryptocurrency jumped to above the psychological $90,000 level. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that there is no need for investors to be excited about the recent Bitcoin price action. Bitcoin Price Needs To Cross The STH Average Cost At $99,000 In a January 2nd post on the X platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed that the recent price jump for Bitcoin does not say a lot about the current market structure. The on-chain data pundit’s evaluation is based on the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which currently lies around the $99,000 level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K For context, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is an on-chain metric that tracks the average price where Bitcoin short-term investors (holding for less than 115 days) acquired their coins. Being the average cost basis of the most reactive group of investors, the STH Realized Price often functions as a dynamic support and resistance level. While the price of BTC slipped beneath the Short-Term Holder Realized Price four times in the past year, it has been below this critical threshold since September 2025. According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin price needs to close above this STH Realized Price at $99,000 before bull run conversations can resume. Kesmeci wrote on X: No bull market without the short-term investor with a broken heart being made happy. This statement reiterates the importance of short-term investors in market dynamics. For instance, in this case, breaking the Short-Term Holder Realized Price would suggest the return of demand and confidence among the most reactive investor cohort. Data Converges Between $99,000 And $102,000 Furthermore, Kesmeci pointed out that additional on-chain data reinforces the critical importance of the $99,000 region to the Bitcoin price trajectory. The crypto analyst said that significant data is converging in the $99,000 – $102,000 range, and until this region is surpassed, the price of BTC might continue to struggle. In an earlier post on the X platform, Kesmeci had revealed that the price of BTC needs to close above $101,000 for the long-term trend to turn positive. This explains why the analyst later concluded that the $99,000 – $102,000 bracket is pivotal to Bitcoin’s health. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around $90,110, reflecting a roughly 2% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Faces Strong Social Discontent—Is A 50% Bullish Reversal Just Around The Corner? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
For the majority of December, Bitcoin maintained a stable price range between $85,000 – $90,000 following the initial heavy corrections seen in Q4 2025. Amid the cheers of the new year, the flagship cryptocurrency has once again retested the proven price resistance around $90,500, but the market still bears a sense of uncertainty. Related Reading: XRP Faces Strong Social Discontent—Is A 50% Bullish Reversal Just Around The Corner? Bitcoin Coinbase Premium To Rebound? In an X post on January 2, renowned analyst Burak Kesmeci shares an insightful analysis of the Bitcoin market following the asset’s positive start to 2026. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has gained by almost 4% since the new year commenced two days ago. Amid the mild market euphoria, Kesmeci highlights a simultaneous rise in Coinbase premiums across the Bitcoin and Ethereum market suggesting the recent price gains are significantly influenced by US investors. For context, the Coinbase premium assesses how much more or less US investors are paying for an asset. It is a strong market indicator as US investors’ liquidity tends to heavily influence the global market. Despite the latest price gains, Kesmeci notes that Coinbase premiums for BTC and ETH still remain negative, suggesting the majority of US investors still remain cautious. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Grows As Altcoins Post Another Losing Year: Analyst Bitcoin Short-Term And Long-Term Triggers In predicting future price movements, Burak Kesmeci has also outlined some potential developments investors should watch out for. Using the simple moving average indicator, the market expert has identified certain price levels of importance to Bitcoin’s price trajectory. For a bullish trend to kick off in the short-term, Kesmeci explains that Bitcoin must maintain its current 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) above the present level at $89,415 for at least the next two days. Notably, a potential loss of this price level would suggest the present consolidation continues. Meanwhile, the seasoned analyst also expects a positive long-term trend to only develop when Bitcoin crosses above $101,000, which represents an intersection between the SMA365 and SMA111. This outlook underscores $101,000 as a major psychological and structural resistance, with a decisive break above it likely to restore Bitcoin’s bullish market structure after the extended correction observed in Q4 2025. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,520 following a 0.85% gain in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is up by 11471%, representing buoyant market activity. Notably, Bitcoin’s market cap has climbed to $1.79 trillion, allowing the maiden cryptocurrency account for 58.6% of the total crypto market cap. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Despite the recent price action, Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 as the year with the lowest volatility in its history, driven by market maturity, regulatory developments, and the increasing participation of institutions in the crypto space. Related Reading: Ethereum Optimism For 2026: Analysts Share Bullish Forecast Despite Disappointing End-Of-Year Bitcoin Records Least Volatile Year On Friday, K33 Research data revealed that Bitcoin has recorded the least volatile year in the asset’s history. According to the chart, the flagship cryptocurrency saw its lowest volatility level, measured by the average deviation of daily returns, in 2025, hitting just 2.24%. The recent data shows that BTC fell below the previous lowest year on record, 2023, which registered 2.30% volatility. Moreover, it’s annual volatility has also ended below the 3% mark over the past three years, its lowest levels since 2016. This signals a “clear” diminishing trend, K33 Research noted, as Bitcoin’s volatility has been trending lower year by year, suggesting growing market maturity and stabilizing price action. Crypto trader Niels highlighted that “for the first time, BTC recorded its lowest annual volatility on record, lower than every cycle before it, including the early ‘wild west’ years and the post-ETF era.” As he explained, 2025 was “the calmest year in Bitcoin’s history” despite all the price movements of the years, including the Q4 daily corrections, which saw the flagship crypto retrace up to 16% in a single day. It’s worth noting that BTC’s deepest correction in 2025 saw the cryptocurrency drop nearly 36% in a two-month period, while previous cycles’ corrections recorded retraces of more than 50% during similar periods. Previously, Nic Carter addressed the negative sentiment brewing around Bitcoin and the broader market. He detailed that the market could be considered “boring” now because most of the questions that drove the historical volatility have been answered. Carter also asserted that the space matured significantly with “more serious businesses (…), [and] less chaos” in the industry. The Start Of The ‘Institutional Era’ In his X post, Niels also pointed out that the diminishing trend in Bitcoin volatility was fueled by the massive institutional participation, calling for “More capital. More long-term holders. More institutional participation. [and] Less emotional trading” for the future. Similarly, Bitwise’s CEO, Hunter Horsley has affirmed that the overall crypto market was changing, driven by the significant decrease in regulatory risk, which has led to last year’s spike in institutional adoption and mainstream recognition. Notably, the market saw the second of wave of crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) go live, with funds based on altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP breaking multiple records. In addition, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend, led by Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, poured billions of dollars into cryptocurrencies in 2025. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Swipe Nearly $3 Billion In 2025 Despite Fewer Attacks – Report In November, Ark Invest’s CEO Cathie Wood stated that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for Bitcoin, noting that large-scale institutions have barely dipped their toes into the space and “have a long way to go.” Meanwhile, Head of Research at Grayscale, Zach Pandl, said in an January 2 interview that 2026 could be the “dawn of the institutional era” for crypto. He noted that rising demand for alternative stores of value and progress on bipartisan US crypto market structure legislation could drive Bitcoin to new highs in the first half of the year. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,240, a 1.54% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross—a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections. Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media site X (previously Twitter). Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction Martinez emphasized the importance of watching the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin has registered a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by substantial corrections. Related Reading: Dogecoin Long-Term Bullish Structure Still In Play And Will Cross $10 As seen in the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart below, past occurrences of such crossovers have led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022. With the recent death cross-forming, Martinez suggests that if history is any guide, Bitcoin could face a correction between 50% and 60%, which would place its price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000. Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future. Two Scenarios For BTC’s Future Following Bitcoin’s downturn since its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. Coinciding with this, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the breakout zone. Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance exhibit an inverse correlation, Mags has identified two main scenarios moving forward. The first, a bullish scenario, hinges on the idea that if USDT dominance begins to decline, the current breakout could turn out to be a fakeout. Mags asserts that such a move could potentially ignite another expansion in Bitcoin’s price, possibly even leading to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs. Related Reading: Here’s How Much The XRP Price Will Be If It Overtakes Ethereum In Market Cap Conversely, Mags outlined a second scenario indicating early signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin might experience a temporary bounce, while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range before trending back upwards. In this case, BTC would exhibit a slow distribution pattern, marking neither a crash nor a rapid decline, but rather a gradual, choppy downward movement characteristic of initial bearish market behavior. The next move in USDT dominance is poised to play a crucial role in determining whether the current market represents a mere pause before further price continuation or the onset of an extended distribution phase leading up to a new all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin closed the year slightly in the red, marking a rare break in the long-observed four-year cycle pattern of one red year followed by three green years. The annual decline was modest—around 6%—and negligible compared to historical drawdowns seen in prior bearish years. Yet despite its limited magnitude, the red close carries symbolic weight, suggesting a shift in market behavior rather than outright weakness. Related Reading: Ethereum Liquidity Rebuilds On Binance: December Inflows Signal Strategic Repositioning Recent on-chain analysis from Axel Adler adds important context to this change. Data tracking cumulative Net Taker Flow shows that aggressive buying peaked around the New Year before fading. Since then, the balance of market aggression has tilted toward sellers, though not in an extreme way. The indicator currently sits in a moderate negative range, signaling that sell-side pressure has increased but remains far from capitulation levels. Historically, similar conditions have tended to coincide with heightened downside sensitivity rather than immediate trend reversals. In practical terms, this suggests that Bitcoin is vulnerable to further weakness if demand fails to recover, but it is not yet displaying the stress typically associated with deeper bear phases. The key takeaway is nuance. Bitcoin is not collapsing, but it is no longer behaving like an asset in a clean, momentum-driven expansion. The shift toward moderate sell pressure, combined with a rare red yearly close, points to a market transitioning into a more complex and selective phase rather than following its familiar cycle script. Derivatives Momentum Turns Cautious as Sell-Side Pressure Aligns Adler’s analysis highlights a growing shift in short-term market behavior through the Bitcoin Net Taker Flow momentum metric, which tracks how aggressively traders are positioning on the long or short side. Unlike cumulative flow, this indicator is designed to react quickly to sentiment changes, offering an early read on shifts in trader behavior rather than longer-term positioning. In recent sessions, this momentum gauge has rolled over decisively. After holding positive territory in late December, the smoothed reading has slipped into negative levels, now hovering around -0.3. While this does not yet reflect extreme stress, it places the market firmly in a moderate bearish pressure regime. The timing is notable: the momentum downturn occurred alongside a deterioration in cumulative Net Taker Flow, reinforcing the signal rather than contradicting it. This alignment matters. When both cumulative pressure and short-term momentum weaken together, it reduces the likelihood that the move is driven by noise or isolated positioning. Instead, it points to a broader shift in trader aggression toward the sell side. Adler notes that deeper downside risk would emerge if momentum continues to weaken, particularly if readings push beyond the -0.4 threshold. Conditions suggest controlled but persistent selling pressure. Bitcoin is not yet in capitulation territory, but the synchronized signals indicate that bearish forces currently have the upper hand, increasing sensitivity to any loss of price support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Distribution Re-Emerges: BTC Enters A Fragile Price Phase Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Momentum Remains Fragile Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88,000–$90,000 zone after a sharp pullback from its recent highs. Reflecting a market caught between stabilization and lingering downside risk. Price remains below the short-term and medium-term moving averages, signaling that bullish momentum has not yet been reclaimed. The 50-period moving average has turned into dynamic resistance, while the 100-period average is flattening, reinforcing the idea of a broader compression phase rather than an immediate trend reversal. Importantly, Bitcoin is still holding well above the 200-period moving average, which continues to slope upward. This suggests that, from a higher-timeframe perspective, the broader structure has not fully broken down. However, the loss of the $100,000–$105,000 region earlier marked a clear regime shift from expansion to distribution. Increasing sensitivity to sell-side pressure. Volume has notably declined during the recent sideways movement, indicating a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers. This supports the view that the market is digesting prior excesses rather than aggressively repricing lower. Still, repeated failures to push back above the $92,000–$95,000 range highlight weak demand at higher levels. As Bitcoin holds the $85,000–$88,000 support band, consolidation remains the dominant scenario. A breakdown below this area would likely open the door to deeper retracements. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Crypto Whale has explained why the Bitcoin price could still crash to as low as $25,000. The analyst also stated this would form the macro bottom for the leading crypto, as it recovers from this bear market. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Drop To As Low As $25,000 In an X post, Crypto Whale stated that the monthly chart suggested that the Bitcoin price could form a macro bottom near $25,000 sometime in 2026. The analyst further remarked that if history rhymes, these deep retracements tend to mark long-term accumulation zones. He added that this doesn’t signify the end of the cycle but the reset before the next expansion. However, in another X post, Crypto Whale suggested that the Bitcoin price isn’t yet in a bear market, highlighting how the 2026 bull run is likely to unfold. He stated that this month, the crypto market will see a Bitcoin-led rally, while there will be a broad altcoin expansion in February. The analyst expects the bull trap to set in in March, which he predicts would lead to volatility and panic selling. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Why The Bitcoin Price Is Extremely Bearish Right Now Once that happens, Crypto Whale predicts that May will usher in the capitulation phase, while a full bear market confirmation will happen in June. This outlook for the Bitcoin price comes as research firm XWIN Research noted that BTC has not clearly entered a new bullish trend. The firm further stated that the crypto market remains in a high-volatility range environment, which is neither decisively bullish nor bearish. Meanwhile, XWIN Research raised the possibility that the Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $50,000. They stated that this could happen if recession risks intensify, with deleveraging and ETF outflows pushing the leading crypto below $80,000 and making $50,000 a possibility. BTC Death Cross Signals Drop To $38,000 In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a death cross, which has been recurring on the BTC weekly chart. The analyst noted that if history repeats itself, the Bitcoin price could record a similar 50% to 60% correction, dropping to as low as $38,000 in the process. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Decision Phase, But What Does It Mean For The Crypto Market? This death cross between the 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages is said to have occurred in September 2014, leading to a Bitcoin price correction of 67%. It also occurred in June 2018, March 2020, and January 2022, resulting in price corrections of 54%, 53%, and 64%, respectively. Martinez opined that the zone between $50,000 and $38,000 is starting to become interesting from a long-term spot accumulation standpoint. He added that the market will confirm the next move for the Bitcoin price in its own time. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $88,700, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how demand makes the basis of a Bitcoin cycle, rather than price performance. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Has Been Declining Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about Bitcoin cycles from a different lens. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” noted Moreno. Related Reading: XRP At Risk Of A Drop To $0.80? Analyst Makes The Case The analyst has gauged the “demand” for the cryptocurrency using the Apparent Demand indicator, which compares the daily miner issuance against the changes in the 1-year dormant supply. The first of these, the miner issuance, is the amount that miners are “minting” on the network every day by receiving block rewards. This metric essentially reflects the “production” of the asset. The 1-year inactive supply, on the other hand, can be thought of as the cryptocurrency’s “inventory.” Thus, the Apparent Demand basically compares the production of Bitcoin against changes taking place in its inventory. Below is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trends in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Apparent Demand over the past decade. As is visible in the graph, the last few Bitcoin cycles have all transitioned into a bear market when the Apparent Demand has plunged into the negative region on both the monthly and yearly timeframes. In the current cycle, the 30-day Apparent Demand has plunged into the red zone recently, suggesting that the monthly demand for the asset has been negative. On the annual scale, the metric is still at a positive level, but its value has been following a downtrend. If this decline keeps up, it won’t be long before the indicator has dipped into the negative territory. Considering the pattern from the previous cycles, the current structure in the Apparent Demand is certainly looking bearish. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the yearly version of the metric will cross into the red zone or if it will rebound, signaling the return of demand. Spot demand isn’t the only way to measure Bitcoin demand these days. With the advent of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there has been some fresh off-chain demand coming into the cryptocurrency this cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium At Rare Discount As US Demand Weakens As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about in an X post, the 30-day netflow related to the US BTC spot ETFs has remained in the negative zone recently, indicating demand has been muted in this side of the market as well. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to consolidation recently as its price is still floating around the $88,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s short-term price action is still without bullish momentum, and according to macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg, the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating as well. Henrik Zeberg shared a strongly bearish assessment of the market’s current structure in a post on the social media platform X with the conclusion that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an asset in a healthy expansion phase. Instead, he described Bitcoin as approaching an important peak, warning that the current structure carries an elevated risk of a sharp downside move once that peak is in place. Bitcoin’s Expanding Diagonal Points To Price Top Zeberg’s Bitcoin outlook is based on the expanding diagonal structure on Bitcoin’s monthly candlestick timeframe chart. This long-term pattern, which has been playing out since Bitcoin’s creation, shows increasing volatility, with the Bitcoin price making higher highs and lower lows with a widening range. Related Reading: People Are Not Ready For Bitcoin; Analyst Reveals What’s Coming Next According to the chart he shared, Bitcoin appears to be completing the final stages of this structure, and this is expected to be characterized by exhaustion. Zeberg labels the current zone as a topping area, where upside progress becomes increasingly unstable even if the price continues to increase. Interestingly, the chart projected a final surge as a blow-off top that could carry Bitcoin to the mid-$150,000 range. However, in this framework, that final push is not a sign of strength but a hallmark of late-cycle overconfidence. Expanding diagonals tend to resolve violently once the structure breaks, and Zeberg views the current setup as looking like where optimism peaked just before a reversal. From Euphoria To A Deep Crash Scenario Zeberg’s most controversial claims are in his projected downside targets. According to him, once the final euphoric rally plays out and Bitcoin reaches above $150,000, it could enter into a collapse on a scale that most Bitcoin investors currently consider unthinkable. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts When The Bitcoin Supercycle Will Actually Begin He compared the setup to the dot-com era, when the Nasdaq fell by more than 80%, and noted that Bitcoin has historically amplified both upside and downside moves. Based on that logic, he predicted a scenario where a broader AI and crypto bubble unwinds, leading to a Bitcoin price crash of about 97% or 98% from the eventual peak. This translates into a technical minimum target between $3,000 and $4,000, with the possibility of even deeper declines. Although the final rally may be dramatic, holding through the subsequent crash could be devastating for unprepared investors. Zeberg also highlighted momentum indicators that he believes support the bearish outlook. Bitcoin is showing what he describes as massive bearish divergence on the monthly timeframe. This is a situation where price continues to grind higher but momentum indicators such as the RSI fail to confirm those highs. Another indicator is the monthly MACD, which is also approaching, or already printing, a bearish crossover on the long-term chart. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $88,000 level, offering a brief sense of stability after weeks of choppy price action. However, the broader picture remains fragile. Since early December, BTC has repeatedly failed to push above the $90,000 threshold, a level that continues to cap upside attempts and reinforce market hesitation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 Adding to the cautious outlook, CryptoZeno, a CryptoQuant analyst, points to miner behavior as a growing short-term risk factor. According to his analysis, Bitcoin miner outflows are signaling rising sell-side pressure, a dynamic that has historically mattered during periods of weak momentum. The data shows a clear relationship between miner activity and short-term price movements. Sharp increases in total miner outflows—especially when large volumes of BTC are sent to exchanges—have frequently coincided with local price pullbacks rather than sustained rallies. Miners are often considered informed market participants, typically operating with relatively low cost bases. When their distribution activity increases, it can introduce additional supply at moments when spot demand is already struggling to absorb selling pressure. While miner outflows alone do not define a broader market top, they can amplify short-term weakness, particularly in range-bound conditions like the one Bitcoin is currently facing. Miner Outflows Reinforce Short-Term Downside Risks The report explains that recent spikes in Bitcoin miner outflows have repeatedly been followed by immediate or near-term price weakness, reinforcing the link between miner behavior and short-term market dynamics. These episodes suggest that miners—often considered informed participants with relatively low production cost bases—are actively distributing supply during periods of strength or heightened uncertainty. While a miner selling on its own does not signal a macro market top, it frequently adds incremental supply at sensitive moments, increasing short-term pressure when liquidity is thin, or spot demand is unable to absorb new inflows. CryptoZeno adds that elevated miner outflows typically reflect a combination of factors. These include profit realization after rallies, the need to cover operational expenses, or a defensive response to weakening price structure. From an on-chain perspective, this behavior is not unusual during corrective or range-bound phases. However, when miner transfers to exchanges cluster within a short time window, their impact becomes more pronounced. Concentrated outflows can materially increase sell-side pressure on exchanges, raising the probability of corrective price moves rather than sustained upside continuation. At the macro level, miner distribution becomes especially influential when paired with broader headwinds. Neutral or declining risk appetite, tighter liquidity conditions, or cooling derivatives sentiment all reduce the market’s capacity to absorb additional supply. In such environments, miner-driven selling is less likely to be smoothly digested and can instead amplify downside volatility, keeping Bitcoin vulnerable in the near term. Related Reading: XRP Slides To $1.80 While Binance Reserves Continue To Decline Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight consolidation range after failing to reclaim the $90,000 level, as shown on the daily chart. Following the sharp breakdown in November, price found support in the $85,000–$87,000 zone, where selling pressure began to ease and volatility compressed. Since then, BTC has been moving sideways, signaling indecision rather than a decisive trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains capped below its declining short-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average continues to slope downward and acts as dynamic resistance. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit well above the current price, reinforcing a broader bearish structure. As long as BTC trades below these levels, upside attempts are likely to be sold into rather than sustained. Related Reading: XRP Selling Pressure Returns: Investors Shift From Holding to Distribution After the heavy sell-off in November, trading volume has gradually declined. This suggests that aggressive sellers have stepped back, but new demand has not yet entered with conviction. This typically characterizes a stabilization phase rather than the start of a new impulsive move. Structurally, Bitcoin is forming a base, but confirmation remains absent. A daily close above $90,000 could signal a meaningful shift in momentum. And would open the door for a recovery toward higher resistance zones. Conversely, a loss of the $85,000 support area could expose BTC to another leg lower. For now, the chart reflects balance, hesitation, and a market waiting for a catalyst. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The industry is realizing that Bitcoin was deliberately designed to prioritize simple, deterministic validation over complex on-chain execution. This design choice minimizes resource requirements, preserves decentralization, and reduces systemic risk even if it means pushing complex logic, programmability, and heavy computation to higher layers or external systems. How Bitcoin Avoids Complex State Transitions The fundamental limitation of Bitcoin is its inability to run heavy verification logic at a low cost, a core constraint that every BitVM-based bridge must navigate. According to the GOAT Network post on X, to address these issues, they are introducing a BitVM2 design that will ensure disputes are affordable enough to be executed under real fee conditions. The security mechanism is addressed through optimistic verification using garbled circuits (GC). Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags This operator, which is set to launch soon, publishes the garbled-circuit artifacts off-chain, while committing only the relevant labels on-chain. If the computation is correct, no on-chain action will be required. Meanwhile, if something is wrong, a challenger does not need to replay an expensive computation on-chain. Instead, they produce a minimal fraud-proof to reveal the output “0” label that contradicts the operator’s claimed result. At that point, the on-chain step is about demonstrating a contradiction, which will reduce the cost of disputes and change the economics of security. A practical detail in BitVM designs is that the garbled circuit size matters, and pairing heavy verification can cause bloated circuits. To avoid this, BitVM2 integrates a designated-verifier SNARK, which reduces verifier complexity so that the garbled circuits remain within realistic size limits. For end users, the implication is that the cheaper, more reliable depute paths make it harder for the bridge to stall when the fees spike. Public Companies Are Becoming Bitcoin’s Strongest Buyers While several projects are being introduced to improve the efficiency of Bitcoin, seasoned crypto expert and the founder of the Wealth Mastery Newspaper, Lark Davis, has revealed that many public companies are aggressively accumulating BTC. Currently, public companies collectively hold 1.09 million BTC, representing 5.1% of the total BTC supply, which is a new all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 However, the latest major aggressive purchases have come from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. Strategy just announced another 1,200 BTC purchase, pushing its total holdings to 672,000 BTC. Asia-based firm Metaplanet also bought an additional 4,200 BTC in December, bringing its total holdings to 35,000 BTC. Davis pointed out that other recent purchases have come from Cango Inc., Bitdeer Technologies, and Anap Holdings. While retail investors are demonstrating weakening sentiment, public companies or institutional investors continue to stack regardless of the ongoing market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com