Bitcoin is once again testing a critical level that could shape its next major move. With price action returning to a previously contested support and resistance zone, attention is now shifting toward a defined set of upside targets that could come into play if the level continues to hold. Bitcoin’s S/R Zone Retest Signals Strength In Market Structure According to market technician Johnathan Carter, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is currently revisiting a key zone that previously acted as resistance before being broken. That same level is now functioning as support, marking a classic support/resistance flip. Related Reading: Where Is Bitcoin Price Headed Next? This Level Will Decide Everything The chart he posted shows that Bitcoin’s price has pulled back into this zone after a strong upward expansion, with buyers stepping in to defend it. This reaction is not occurring randomly. The highlighted region, positioned around the mid-$60,000 range, aligns with a former breakout area, reinforcing its technical importance. The analyst’s observation centers on the idea that this retest is a structural confirmation. The ability of bulls to maintain price above this level suggests that the breakout remains valid and that the broader upward trend is intact. Further supporting this outlook is the large inverse head and shoulders pattern visible on the weekly timeframe. This formation reflects a transition from bearish to bullish control. The neckline of this pattern coincides closely with the current S/R zone, making the ongoing retest even more significant. After breaking above this neckline, Bitcoin advanced sharply before pulling back to retest it. The chart also illustrates a rounded retest structure, indicating a controlled pullback. This type of price action often points to accumulation, where buyers gradually regain control without allowing the price to break lower. Four Key Price Targets Come Into Focus With the support zone holding and the retest developing constructively, attention shifts to the next potential price objectives outlined by the analyst. The first level to monitor is $95,000, which represents a near-term resistance area based on recent price structure. A move into this region would confirm continuation from the current base. Beyond that, $125,000 stands as the next target, aligning with a previous consolidation range seen during Bitcoin’s earlier rally phase. Clearing this level would signal sustained bullish momentum. The third target is $150,000, a psychological and structural milestone that reflects an extension of the current trend. At this stage, market participation typically increases as momentum builds. Related Reading: XRP Trend Exhaustion Says Price Is About To Jump, Here’s The Target Finally, the long-term objective sits at $200,000. This level represents a full realization of the projected move following the inverse head and shoulders breakout, as illustrated by the trajectory on the chart. The current price behavior suggests that the market is in the process of confirming the breakout. With buyers actively defending the retested zone and no clear breakdown in structure, the bullish framework remains in place. As long as this support holds, the path toward higher levels remains open, keeping all four targets—$95,000, $125,000, $150,000, and $200,000—firmly in focus. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin miner selling pressure has fallen sharply, with BTC inflows from miners to Binance dropping to levels not seen since mid-2023. The shift matters because miner distribution is one of the market’s more persistent sources of structural sell-side pressure, and the latest data suggests that pressure has eased for now. In a post via X on Sunday, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost said the monthly average of BTC inflows from miners to Binance has fallen to roughly 4,316 BTC. When the same activity is measured across all exchanges, the figure rises only slightly to 4,381 BTC, reinforcing the point that the slowdown is not limited to a single venue. Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressure Drops The reversal follows a brief spike earlier this year tied to extreme weather in the United States. According to Darkfost, miner inflows picked up during the ice storm that hit the country in late January and early February, when several large US-based mining pools were forced to scale back or temporarily suspend operations. That disruption, he argued, likely translated into heavier BTC sales as miners worked to cover ongoing expenses despite reduced output. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Not Ready For Expansion Yet — Blockchain Firm “It is important to recall that during this weather event, several large US based mining pools were forced to slow down or temporarily halt their operations,” Darkfost wrote. “Even when activity is reduced, however, fixed costs remain high, including electricity, infrastructure, and operational expenses. This situation likely pushed some miners to increase their BTC sales in order to maintain liquidity.” That dynamic now appears to have faded. “Since then, the trend has clearly reversed,” he added, describing current inflows as having fallen to “historically low levels.” He noted that a similarly weak reading for miner transfers to Binance was last seen on June 5, 2023. The broader implication is straightforward: miners are currently sending less BTC to exchanges, which in turn suggests they are selling less into the market. Darkfost framed that as a constructive development, writing that “the current decline in inflows suggests that miners have significantly reduced their BTC sales, which can be interpreted as a constructive signal for the market, as structural selling pressure from this cohort appears to be temporarily easing.” That does not mean the risk has disappeared. Darkfost estimates that miners still hold around 1.8 million BTC in reserves, a stockpile large enough to matter if market conditions change and distribution accelerates again. In other words, the absence of aggressive selling is supportive, but it is not the same as a supply overhang vanishing altogether. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks Drop To $52,000, Veteran Analyst Aksel Kibar Says The miner data also arrives alongside signs that Bitcoin is still trying to rebuild a firmer base among short-term holders. In a separate post, Darkfost said the market has spent nearly a month attempting to stabilize above the cost basis of the youngest short-term holder cohort, the 1-week to 1-month group. That cohort’s estimated breakeven level sits at $68,200, making it the only short-term holder segment currently around flat. Further up the ladder, the pressure points are steeper. The 1-month to 3-month cohort has an estimated cost basis of $83,500, while the 3-month to 6-month group sits even higher at $96,900. Darkfost said the 1-month to 3-month level acted as resistance the last time price approached it, as many short-term holders used the move to exit, pushing the broader short-term holder segment back into unrealized loss. At press time, BTC traded at $68,553. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price broke below $70,000 over the weekend, effectively erasing the gains from the previous week. This move puts the cryptocurrency in a perilous position as the bulls are now hard-pressed to find another major support or risk the decline going deeper from here. According to one analyst, Bitcoin bulls will have to reclaim and hold $69,000 with momentum in order to trigger another recovery trend. Why Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold $69,000 According to crypto analyst Tealstreet, the bulls will need to defend $69,000 to prevent the Bitcoin price from falling lower. The reason for this is the fact that the Bitcoin price has a chance of pushing upwards to the $73,000-$74,000 levels if this support is maintained. Following this, there is still the possibility of a final push toward $76,000-$77,000. Related Reading: Why The XRP Supply In The Billions Is Not A Problem On the flip side, there is a lot of bearish action to be seen if the bulls lose $69,000. This bearish move would trigger an at least 5% decline, with the crypto analyst putting the target somewhere between $64,000 and $66,000. While this decline may not exactly be as impactful as previous sharp declines, it could end up being negative for altcoins, which are already suffering. By Sunday, the Bitcoin price broke below $69,000, but the bulls were able to maintain the $68,000 level, holding quite close to the target. Nevertheless, this means that the bulls are now in a tight spot with the need to reclaim $69,000 or watch the trend play out. BTC Still Stuck In A Corrective Phase Another crypto analyst, HAMED_AZ, also published a post in support of the current Bitcoin bearishness, saying that the digital asset has actually entered a corrective phase. Due to this, the Bitcoin price is expected to move lower after an initial push toward the top of the ascending channel. Related Reading: The Bear Market Divergence That Shows What’s Really Going On With Bitcoin If the price is unable to break the resistance at the top of the channel, then the downtrend will continue, leading to an over 10% decline. This move will most likely send the Bitcoin price crashing below $60,000 for the first time in over a year. Alternatively, if the price is able to successfully test and break out of the channel resistance with momentum, then the downtrend could be broken completely. This scenario would lead to a push toward $80,000 and likely kickstart the next run. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to a recent on-chain data evaluation, the Bitcoin price might not be seeing a start to renewed price expansion in the near-term. Interestingly, this hypothesis seems to align with the multiple recovery attempts by the flagship cryptocurrency over the past few weeks. BTC Net Realized Profit Peak At $17M/hr Before Swift Price Downturn In a March 20 post on the social media platform X, on-chain research firm Glassnode revealed what was behind Bitcoin’s recent reversal from what initially looked like an expansion move. This is based on the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) (24h Moving Average) metric, which reflects whether the market is predominantly realizing profits or losses, by tracking (and comparing) the amount of either that has been realized by holders over 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shark & Whale Wallets Jump Despite Bearish Price Action Glassnode highlighted that readings on the NRPL metric recently reached a high of approximately $17 million/hr before the price of Bitcoin started moving downwards again. This trend was outlined as one of the drivers behind the flagship cryptocurrency’s loss of its $70,000 footing. According to the analytics firm, the heightened profit-taking activity among Bitcoin’s investors has continued to absorb bullish momentum, thereby converting it to bearish pressure. Notably, this pattern has repeated itself at multiple moments in the current cycle, specifically as Bitcoin attempts to rally to the upside. Glassnode further explained that the degree of uncertainty currently in the geopolitical world has caused “demand depth” to compress. As a result, realization events like the last one have become too much for the market to absorb, explaining the recent slip below $70,000. Interestingly, this is not a standalone reason behind BTC’s activity. After Bitcoin fell below the $85,000 support, a surge in on-chain activity was observed due to liquidity repositioning by investors. However, the waning market liquidity in recent weeks suggests that BTC price recovery is buoyed by seller exhaustion rather than by strong and consistent demand. Hence, the life of the recovery is truncated whenever sellers enter the market Short-Term Holders Realize Losses As Price Nears $74K For instance, crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin’s short-term investors are locking in more losses in recent weeks. This is reflected in readings from the Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges Sum metric. In their post on X, Darkfost revealed that more than 28,000 BTC have recently been sent to exchanges, with these investors seemingly cutting their losses. These losses, pointed out the analyst, continued to grow as the Bitcoin price went into a steady decline. For this reason, it is safe to expect more bearish pressure from this investor cohort, as additional panic-driven sales would likely contribute more bearish momentum to the Bitcoin market. Thus, rather than a hopeful story of positive expectations, the Bitcoin price seems to be giving warning signs to investors. As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $70,532, reflecting no significant movement in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Got A $1 Million Nudge, But Will Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ETF Really Move The Needle? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Ardi has pointed to a bear market divergence to explain what has been going on with Bitcoin’s price for a while now. His analysis comes just as BTC continues to struggle to hold above $70,000 amid the U.S.-Iran war and rising oil prices. Analyst Explains What Is Happening With Bitcoin as Price Struggles In an X post, Ardi noted that this is the first time in this bear market that Bitcoin’s price and open interest have diverged on an intermediate timeframe. BTC has climbed over the last six weeks to a low of around $60,000 while its open interest has declined during the same period. He stated that this indicates the recent rally wasn’t driven by new buyers entering, but rather by a large part of it being shorts closing their positions. Related Reading: How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Analyst Shares Worst-Case Scenario The analyst further remarked that traders who shorted the Bitcoin top like saw the drop to $60,000 and felt it was a good position to take profits. “They locked profit. They exited. That exit pressure pushed the price up,” he said. However, Ardi added that this development is not the same as fresh demand, which is sufficient for a reversal. He said that open interest typically rises when the Bitcoin rally has real strength, as shorts close and longs open to replace them. Meanwhile, new capital enters, forming the foundation for the bullish reversal in BTC. Ardi declared that none of that has happened in this range, with trading activity one-sided even as the leading crypto climbed to as high as $75,000 last week. Ardi said that the problem is that short covering has a ceiling, and once the last short has closed, the source of upward pressure is gone, leaving no other factor to sustain the move to the upside. How It Could Play Out For BTC In The Near Term Crypto analyst Colin noted that Bitcoin has been tracking inside the channel of a bear flag since the February 6 low. In line with this, he opined that BTC will eventually break down and that it is not a question of if but when. The analyst also questioned how high the leading crypto will rise before it suffers this breakdown. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Showing Dangerous Weakness, Here’s Why Colin opined that the highest price Bitcoin might reach before this projected breakdown is around $80,000. He described this as the best-case scenario at this point and that BTC might not even reach this psychological level. However, the analyst also admitted that there are some outlier outcomes, like BTC rising above $80,000 if the U.S.-Iran war suddenly ends. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $70,700, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is hovering near the $71,000 mark, consolidating after recent swings as the market digests key liquidity zones. While price remains contained, underlying technical signals suggest a larger move may be brewing, with both upside breakouts and downside sweeps on the horizon. A Bounce Back To $71,000 After Channel Support Holds Crypto analyst Columbus highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience following a successful bounce from its channel boundary support. This technical reaction has allowed the price to grind steadily higher, reclaiming the $71,000 level. While the explosive momentum has begun to decelerate after that first reaction, the overall market structure remains decidedly constructive for the bulls as long as this newly reclaimed territory is defended as support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stalls Near $75K As Traders Move Coins To Exchanges According to the MMT Heatmap, the path toward further upside is clearly defined by a significant stack of liquidity resting just above the current price. A sustained push through the immediate overhead supply would effectively clear the way for a continuation move toward higher liquidity clusters concentrated around the $75,000 to $76,000 region. However, the analysis also cautions that the current level is a precarious battleground for the asset. Should Bitcoin fail to maintain its footing above this support region, the market would likely undergo another sweep into lower liquidity pockets to find sufficient buying interest before any meaningful attempt at higher expansion. Ultimately, the short-term outlook hinges on whether the current support holds or if the slowing momentum leads to a structural failure. For now, this area is key to determining if the market is preparing for a breakout toward the mid-70s or a temporary retreat. Bitcoin Consolidates Mid-Range After Recent Range Breakout BTC is consolidating in the mid-range, according to Lennaert Snyder’s post on X. The market recently experienced a range breakout, which effectively acted as a push-to-fill on Bitcoin, moving the price toward key liquidity zones. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Early Trend Reversal Signs After Major Support Hold Snyder is already positioned short, but he is prepared to add to his position on the next weekly candle if the price pushes into the fair value gap (FVG) around $72,400. This level represents a potential trigger zone for further downside, aligning with his bearish strategy. He plans to short the bearish market structure break (MSB) when the conditions above are met, targeting the liquidity around the $65,580 low. While lower prices are possible, he intends to manage risk carefully and will be roughly 80% positioned at that level. For long positions, Snyder cautions that BTC is trading mid-range and is currently exhausted from the recent drop. Thus, he is waiting for significant liquidity to be mitigated at the range low or for higher time frame (HTF) levels to be gained before considering any new long entries. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of a prolonged decline after peaking in October 2025. Historical patterns highlighted by a crypto analyst suggest that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has not yet reached its macro bear market bottom, despite recent major declines. Analysis of historical patterns from past cycles suggests the current market crash may persist for many more months, and the analyst urges investors and traders to adjust their expectations accordingly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Gains Ground On Gold Even As Both Assets Slide Bitcoin Historical Correlation Points To Further Crash Crypto market expert Greeny shared a new technical analysis on X, noting that Bitcoin has consistently followed a pattern of peaks and bottoms across every major cycle over the past decade. Historical data from the analyst’s chart shows that from 2013 to 2015, Bitcoin took roughly 410 days to reach a low. Similarly, the 2017 to 2018 cycle lasted about 363 days, while the decline from the 2021 peak extended around 376 days. The average across these three cycles is approximately 383 days, roughly over a year. In this cycle, the analyst notes that the market is about five months past its October peak, suggesting that the current downtrend is far from over. Greeny has also noted that historical drawdowns during past cycles have been severe. In 2011, Bitcoin crashed by a whopping 93% before hitting a bottom. Later in 2015, the cryptocurrency fell from its peak, marking an 85% slump, while it dropped by 77% again in 2022 following the 2021 bull market rally. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently trading 42% below its all-time high of over $126,000 in this cycle, further reinforcing his belief that the market still has significant room for more losses. While Greeny acknowledged that institutional demand may prevent a crash as deep as previous cycles, he believes the timing of this bear market’s bottom is consistent with historical trends. Beyond bear market durations and crash depths, Greeny also highlighted Bitcoin’s post-decline accumulation phases for each cycle. He noted that in 2015, Bitcoin spent 15 months trading sideways before a new uptrend emerged. Similarly, both 2018 and 2022 saw roughly 18 months of choppy trading before a market shift occurred. Greeny strongly believes that the current market cycle is mirroring historical patterns. He expects the ongoing market crash to continue, with a meaningful accumulation phase still a long time off. This further supports the view that Bitcoin remains in the early stages of its bear market. What To Expect In The Current Market Cycle Greeny suggested that the average macro bear market bottom has historically appeared around 363 days after its cycle peak, placing a potential bottom near late 2026 or beyond. He explained that while Bitcoin has already started its price dump, its broader weakness is still ongoing. Related Reading: Over Half A Billion Dollars Wiped Out As Bitcoin Locks In At $70,000 The analyst warned that traders hoping for a quick “V-recovery” may be disappointed, as such rebounds have never occurred in Bitcoin’s history. He added that after BTC reaches a price floor, its accumulation phase is expected to last 12 to 16 months before any trend shift is confirmed. Greeny noted that the recent sharp drop in February may slightly shorten this phase, but a full trend shift is unlikely before 2027. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has settled back into the familiar consolidation band between roughly $65,000 and $74,000 after a short-lived attempt to clear higher resistance walls at around $76,000 earlier in the week failed. Trading around $69,000 at the time of writing, on-chain analytics from Glassnode and market commentary from analysts suggest the market is likely to remain in an accumulation phase through the end of March, with several indicators pointing to lower near-term volatility but heightened defensive positioning. Rising Demand For Downside Protection Glassnode’s posts on X (formerly Twitter) highlight record-high positioning in derivatives markets: options open interest reached a new all-time high ahead of the current quarter’s expiry. That elevated positioning may still reflect short-term hedging rather than directional conviction, and the firm noted that the picture of refreshed positioning and sentiment should become clearer after the March 27 expiry. Volatility metrics are showing signs of normalization. At-the-money implied volatility (1‑week ATM IV) has cooled from about 70% to 53%, and longer-dated maturities have fallen roughly 10 vols from recent highs. This drop in implied volatility indicates traders are expecting less dramatic price swings in the immediate term. Related Reading: AI Model Ranks Bitcoin, XRP, And ETH For 2026: Expected Returns And Price Targets Despite falling IV, skew measures have widened back toward the downside. After the failed breakout to $75,000, demand for downside protection reemerged, and 25‑delta skew moved into the 15–20% range. The renewed premium for put options reflects caution among participants who are seeking protection against a reversal. That caution shows up in flow dynamics. Glassnode reported that the put/call ratio flagged limited momentum to sustain a push above $75,000. On the way up, flows were dominated by put buying above $72,000—a classic sign that the market was fading the breakout—while the pullback was accompanied by a brief surge in call purchases. In the most recent 24‑hour tape, put buys led the way with a 30.7% share of activity, and calls lagged at roughly 10%, underscoring a defensive tilt after the rejection at $75,000. Consolidation Rather Than Immediate Breakout Gamma positioning has also been adjusted. For the Q1 expiry, short gamma exposure around the 75,000 strike contracted from $3.9 billion to $2.4 billion in under two days, a $1.5 billion unwind as prices moved away from that level. Lower gamma exposure reduces the need for dealers to dynamically hedge, which in turn can dampen directional flows and help explain part of the pullback. Relatedly, the volatility risk premium (VRP) has reset. Over the past week, short-gamma positions had been profitable because implied volatility exceeded realized volatility, but realized volatility increased during the selloff, compressing the VRP. With VRP near equilibrium, option prices now look more fairly valued—another indicator that the market may be settling into a consolidation range rather than preparing for an immediate breakout. Bitcoin Nears Key Multi‑Year Support When it comes to full price analysis, market expert Ali Martinez recently flagged a longer-term technical backdrop that may be constructive. He noted Bitcoin is approaching a multi-year trendline that has supported major advances in previous cycles. Related Reading: BTQ Unveils First Bitcoin Upgrade Testnet Designed To Thwart Quantum Attacks The expert asserted that every touch of this foundational support over the past nine years has preceded significant rallies: the 2017 parabolic run, the 2020 rebound from the COVID crash, and the 2022 recovery after the FTX collapse. That trendline now lives between roughly $60,000 and $56,000; if it holds, Martinez believes the area could become more than just a bounce zone and serve as a potential launchpad for the next sustained bull phase. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A crypto analyst has broken down everything investors and traders need to know about the current Bitcoin (BTC) cycle. In his post, the pundit argued that the present cycle is different. He explained that the widely followed four-year cycle theory is fundamentally flawed, suggesting that a far more reliable framework exists for understanding where the market truly stands. Market expert Sykodelic took to X on March 17, delivering a sharp critique of the four-year cycle theory. He argued that the widely cited model relies on nothing more than two historical data points and anchors itself purely in time rather than in any meaningful economic foundation. Whereas, he noted that the business cycle is supported by virtually every major market chart available, giving it substantially more analytical weight. Why This Bitcoin Cycle Operates By Different Rules Backing his thesis with a chart, Sykodelic laid out a sequence of market behavior he noted has played out consistently across cycles. According to him, Gold’s price rallies during periods of economic contraction and uncertainty, then peaks the moment the ISM Manufacturing Index returns to expansion territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Rally 250% This Year? Crypto Founder’s Bullish Prediction Shows New ATHs Once certainty returns to the macro environment, risk assets enter their genuine bull phase, and Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) begins its characteristic end-of-cycle decline. Sykodelic stated that each of these fundamental chart indicators lines up. And this is because the market cycle is strictly governed by the business and economic cycle, which is inherently linked to liquidity and economic performance. The analyst further argued that the reason the current business cycle feels so unusual and goes largely unnoticed is that no one has managed to read it correctly. He noted that most people are too focused on the Bitcoin chart and the four-year cycle theory to pay close attention to the actual business cycle. Sykodelic attributed this to human psychology, pointing out that people naturally find it difficult to believe events that have not yet occurred. He said they would rather defend events that have already taken place. The analyst argued that this instinct is why many are likely to be caught off guard in the present market cycle. What The Charts Are Actually Saying In his post, Sykodelic pointed to several observable conditions as direct evidence supporting his thesis. He shared the reason the current cycle is significantly weaker than previous ones and why most altcoins have failed to break higher despite gold experiencing a historic and unprecedented rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Flashed The Most Powerful Fractal In The Market, Here’s What To Expect According to the analyst, all of these trends stem from a common root cause: a prolonged contraction in the business cycle. He noted that this contraction suppressed the conditions necessary for a typical risk-asset explosion. Concluding his analysis, Sykodelic expressed the belief that the market is not heading lower, noting that bearishly positioned traders are still operating under a seemingly faulty four-year cycle framework. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price has broken below a legendary support level that had stood strong for 14 years, marking a major moment for the cryptocurrency. Market expert Crypto Tice has released a new analysis detailing the significance of this breach, warning of potential risks and a possible price shift. The recent downturn follows BTC’s latest surge after it cleared previous resistance levels, which pushed its price back toward the $75,000 region. Bitcoin Price Falls Below 14-Year Support Level Sharing a price chart clearly illustrating the 14-year support on X, Crypto Tice emphasized that this trendline was far more than just another technical level, underscoring its strong significance. He explained that this line has historically defined every major Bitcoin bull market, consistently separating periods of robust price growth from phases with sharp declines. Furthermore, he noted, it has never broken without triggering major consequences. Related Reading: Pundit Who Predicted Ethereum Price Bottom Reveals What To Expect Next The analyst went on to highlight that Bitcoin’s recent break below the support signals that the market can no longer rely on the patterns that once guided investor behavior. Once a support level of this magnitude fails, market volatility typically spikes as traders reassess their positions and liquidity shifts in search of new equilibrium zones. He also observed that weaker hands are often forced out as more experienced investors take a patient stance, waiting for stability before making their next move. Crypto Tice further explained that while Bitcoin could eventually reclaim the long-term trendline support, the market remains in risk-management mode until that happens. He warned that ignoring a broken macro-support is not a sign of conviction but a form of denial. Moreover, history shows that overlooking these foundational levels often leads to sharp sell-offs and accelerated Bitcoin repricing. The analyst noted that this reinforces the need to respect these types of structural chart signals rather than merely holding for a price rebound. While the overall implications of Crypto Tice’s analysis point to further declines and increased volatility in Bitcoin, some members of the crypto community view the latest trendline break differently. One market analyst argued that rather than a signal of imminent collapse, breaking a 14-year support mark is an evolution in Bitcoin’s market structure. He explained that when historic levels like this fail, it often reflects the exhaustion of old patterns, not the start of a recession. The analyst concluded that new frameworks tend to emerge from those that have broken. Related Reading: XRP Trend Exhaustion Says Price Is About To Jump, Here’s The Target Bitcoin Sheds Over $5,000 With New Crash In just one day, the Bitcoin price has crashed, losing roughly $5,000 after its recent rebound above $75,000. CoinMarketCap data shows the decline is ongoing, with no immediate signs of stabilizing. Notably, the latest decline has been driven primarily by a hawkish Federal Reserve (FED) outlook amid rising geopolitical tensions. Reports indicate that investor sentiment shifted sharply, turning risk-off following the latest FED warning. In addition, a surge in whale sell-offs and a wave of leveraged long liquidations have put significant pressure on the Bitcoin price. Featured image created with Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
BTQ Technologies moved a key Bitcoin (BTC) security proposal from theory to practice on Thursday, releasing Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 with the first working implementation of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP 360). The upgrade—aimed at making Bitcoin transactions resistant to future quantum-computing attacks—gives developers, miners, and researchers a live environment to test how quantum-resistant transactions would function on a running network. How Bitcoin Could Shield Keys From Quantum Attacks BIP 360, also known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), was merged into Bitcoin’s official BIP repository earlier this year but remains a draft proposal within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. BTQ’s testnet release delivers the first functional implementation of that proposal, enabling participants to create, fund, sign, and spend P2MR transactions and observe the full lifecycle from mempool acceptance through broadcast and confirmation. Related Reading: Sen. Lummis Predicts Crypto Market Structure Markup In April, Senate Passage By Year-End The importance of BIP 360 stems from a long‑term cryptographic risk: in a future where quantum computers reach sufficient capability, exposed public keys on-chain—an outcome of Taproot’s key-path spend design—could be vulnerable to attacks leveraging Shor’s algorithm. Taproot, activated on Bitcoin back in 2021, underpins many advanced features and scaling efforts for the protocol, but its reliance on on-chain public keys creates a potential attack surface in a quantum-enabled world. P2MR addresses this by committing directly to the Merkle root of a script tree rather than relying on an internal key or tweak, preserving Taproot’s scripting flexibility while removing the key-path mechanism that could expose public keys. Devs Can Now Test Quantum‑Safe BTC Transactions BTQ’s Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 implements full P2MR consensus rules, including SegWit version 2 outputs with bc1z (bech32m) address encoding, Merkle root commitment verification, and control block validation. The release also enables all five Dilithium post‑quantum signature opcodes within the P2MR tapscript context, providing real quantum-resistant signature verification inside the script tree. To support developer workflows, BTQ included end-to-end command-line wallet tooling and full RPC wallet support so users can perform the complete P2MR transaction flow on testnet. BTQ And CEO’s Warnings Olivier Roussy Newton, BTQ’s CEO and chairman, framed the launch as a practical advance for industry preparedness. “BIP 360 represents the Bitcoin community’s most significant step toward quantum resistance, and we’ve turned it from a proposal into running code,” he said. The company further said the testnet’s live validation—covering address creation, funding, transaction construction, signing, mempool acceptance, broadcast, and confirmation—gives implementers and auditors the chance to observe how P2MR operates end to end. It also signaled that BIP 360’s implementation is network-activated across Bitcoin Quantum’s testing environments, ensuring the feature is available to anyone participating in the testnet. Related Reading: XRP Price Projections Soar To $15-$30 On CLARITY Act Prospects And Bank Adoption However, the firm warned that waiting until a quantum-capable adversary emerges would be risky, and urged the industry to move beyond purely theoretical discussion. “The industry can’t afford to treat quantum resistance as a theoretical exercise,” Newton said, adding: BIP 360 was a landmark proposal, and we’ve turned it into a landmark implementation. Every developer, researcher, and institution that wants to understand how quantum-safe Bitcoin actually works now has a live network to test against. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $69,534, having recorded losses of 3% in the past 24 hours after testing the $76,000 resistance wall earlier this week. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has reiterated his $250,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin. With Bitcoin trading around $70,100, that target would imply roughly 256.5% upside from current levels and a clean break above its previous peak at $126,000 from October 2025. Reiterating Bullish Predictions Arthur Hayes is one of the most outspoken bullish proponents for Bitcoin. He has, on multiple occasions, pointed to Bitcoin breaking above $200,000 among his long-term bullish expectations for the asset. That earlier stance has now been reaffirmed in a recent YouTube interview. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Still Bearish And Price Is Headed Below $50,000; Analyst Given how Bitcoin’s price action has unfolded since those earlier calls, Hayes was pressed on whether his outlook had changed in a recent YouTube interview. Hayes was asked whether his Bitcoin prediction for 2026 has changed, and his response left little room for interpretation. He stated that he would “go the same number,” repeating his $250,000 Bitcoin target by the end of the year. The consistency in his outlook shows that his conviction has not changed despite recent price fluctuations and the inability of Bitcoin’s correction to find a bottom. Although the $250,000 prediction did not come with a direct breakdown at that moment, Hayes has always given different reasons as to why he is bullish in other similar predictions. He has previously noted that a prolonged US-Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to print more money, which in turn would have a ripple effect in driving the Bitcoin price higher. Can Bitcoin Reach $250,000 In 2026? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,100 and now seems to have registered a bottom just above $61,000. Therefore, a move to $250,000 would push Bitcoin far above its previous high at $126,000 and establish a completely new price range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Flashed The Most Powerful Fractal In The Market, Here’s What To Expect Recent price action shows that Bitcoin has struggled to break out of its current consolidation, repeatedly moving within a broad $60,000 to $74,000 band without a decisive trend in either direction. A rally to $250,000 would require Bitcoin to first clear its current range and then reclaim higher price zones that were lost during the correction from its 2025 peak. Technical analysis suggests that once Bitcoin breaks through certain supply gaps above $76,000, then it could rally fast due to thinner resistance. Hayes had earlier projected a bigger Bitcoin target in the $500,000 to $750,000 range by the end of 2026, with his prediction based on escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, he has also noted a bit of caution for Bitcoin while speaking at another similar podcast interview. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said, stating he would only become a buyer when the Federal Reserve begins easing. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is back at a point where the next move may carry more importance than an ordinary resistance test. The latest rebound has pulled the price back into a zone that could be the line between a continued recovery and another leg lower, especially as it is still early to judge whether the bounce from the yearly low has real strength behind it. Now, all eyes are on one specific zone that could either launch Bitcoin to a new all-time high or send it to another yearly low. A Roadmap Playing Out In Real Time The setup comes from a technical outlook shared by analyst Crypto Patel, who noted that Bitcoin has now entered its most important zone of 2026. The reaction inside the current order block will determine whether Bitcoin can continue building back to the upper resistance bands or slip into another breakdown sequence. That view is coming as Bitcoin broke above $75,000 again following weeks of trading below the level. Related Reading: XRP Trend Exhaustion Says Price Is About To Jump, Here’s The Target Crypto Patel’s prediction strategy is built around Bearish Order Block 1, a zone running from $74,567 to $79,289. According to his roadmap, Bitcoin already reclaimed $76,000 and pushed through the previous $74,000 resistance, confirming the bounce he had mapped from the $60,000 support area. The chart that accompanied his post presents this range as the first major test of the current rebound. Price is shown climbing out of a local low near $59,809 and moving straight into that overhead supply region. A projected path on the chart suggests two very different outcomes from here. One path shows Bitcoin getting rejected in this first order block and rolling over into a break of structure that could drag price back to the range in the low-$50,000s. The other shows Bitcoin pushing through the zone, establishing a higher low, and then making a run into the next resistance cluster. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X New All-Time High Within Reach If Structure Holds The bullish scenario for this technical analysis. Bitcoin needs to break through Bearish Order Block 1 and keep building. If that happens, then the next upside target is in Bearish Order Block 2, which is between $86,000 and $90,600. Related Reading: Ex-UK Prime Minister Blasts Bitcoin, Here’s What He Said The analyst also placed a change-of-character level at about $97,900 and noted that a higher-timeframe close above that region would be bullish. That would mean Bitcoin is no longer just bouncing inside the structure. Bitcoin closed around $73,926 on March 17 and around $71,256 on March 18, which means the price action is still close enough to Patel’s first decision zone for every small move there to matter. The bearish case is just as straightforward and probably more immediate. A rejection inside the $74,567 to $79,289 band could send Bitcoin into a fresh yearly low. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin could be vulnerable to another sharp leg lower if a developing wedge pattern breaks down, according to market technician Aksel Kibar, whose latest chart work points to a possible move toward $52,500. The warning matters because Kibar is not framing this as a macro hot take or a sentiment call, but as a pure technical risk signal built around the same structure he flagged before Bitcoin’s earlier selloff. In one of his latest posts on X, Kibar wrote: “See my analysis at the time of the previous bearish wedge pattern. A similar pattern might be developing. Not a prediction. Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move towards 52.5K.” That caveat is central to the setup. He is not saying Bitcoin must trade there. He is saying a confirmed loss of structure (currently around $66,000) would open that path on the chart. History Repeating For Bitcoin? Kibar paired that with a broader point about trade management rather than directional conviction. “If you got in with a chart signal, you should get out with the chart signal,” he wrote. In a follow-up, he added: “How can charting be used as a risk management tool? By moving to the sidelines when the time is not right, protects capital, frees it for other opportunities.” Read together, the message is less about calling a dramatic collapse than about respecting invalidation when a technical setup fails. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Rare Zone Against Gold, Fidelity Says The backdrop is a call Kibar made on Jan. 19, when Bitcoin was consolidating beneath what he treats as its long-term trend filter, the 365-day EMA. At the time, with price trading inside a rising wedge and getting rejected near the upper boundary around $97,000, he wrote: “The consolidation below the long-term average. With cryptocurrencies I’m taking the 365 day EMA. With equities I take 200 day EMA as my year-long average trend filter. So far BTCUSD respected the year-long average. This is part of the chop and search for a base. The pattern can become a rising wedge, usually bearish in an attempt to test 73.7K-76.5K support area.” That support zone eventually came under pressure, and the chart he reposted now shows a deeper washout toward the $60,000 area before the latest rebound began tracing what he says may be a similar wedge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term MVRV Remains In ‘Opportunity’ Zone: Data Notably, Kibar is one of the most respected technical analysts on X. He is a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts LLC, and before launching his own research firm he worked as a senior technical analyst and fund manager at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, as well as a portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi Investment Company. The CMT Association also lists him as a presenter and contributor. For Bitcoin traders, the immediate implication is straightforward. When Kibar speaks, the market tends to pay attention. As long as price remains inside the wedge or breaks out, bulls have little to worry about. But a break below $66,000 could open the door to another drawdown toward $52,000. At press time, BTC traded at $70,259. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price broke above $75,000 earlier this week, marking the highest level for the pioneer cryptocurrency for over one month. But while this move has led to an improvement in the overall investor sentiment, it could end up being a trap. This is called out by analyst TheOnePct, who explained that the correct move could end up being part of a larger Flat correction that began years ago. In this case, it would only be a matter of time before the Bitcoin price falls again. Bitcoin Break Confirms Structural Weakness The analysis follows the Bitcoin price movement since 2021, expressing that this current move is still part of the correction that began almost five years ago after the 2021 bull market. Instead of marking the bottom for BTC, the crypto analyst explains that it is likely a B-wave of the Flat correction. Related Reading: Can Avalanche’s AVAX Rise From The Dead? The Zone That Could Change Everything The current price movements, the analyst suggests, are actually ‘structurally consistent’ with this Flat correction. One of the things that seems to correlate is the fact that the Bitcoin price has been seeing very aggressive declines. It coincides with the C-wave of a flat correction, which spells even more bad luck for the cryptocurrency. Another thing the analyst calls out is that the current C-wave looks to be terminal in nature. This simply means that the current trend is inherently corrective. As a result, it is likely that the price will reverse and fall further even after the correction. What To Expect Interpreting the decline of the Bitcoin price, the analyst says the trend suggests that Wave 1 has actually not bottomed. If that is the case, then the recovery into the $70,000s may only be temporary in nature. Not only this, but that the digital asset is likely forming a Diametric pattern. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s 1,549% Spike: Can Bulls Take Control Again And Trigger An Explosive Rally? Going by this, the crypto analyst says that the Bitcoin price is likely moving through Wave F, which could end up being more complex in terms of the sideways movement. Eventually, though, this is expected to end in a decline, leading into Wave G. Wave G is more bearish than the previous wave, and as the price begins to move through, it is expected to fall below $60,000, bottoming somewhere around $55,000. “BTC has already shown clear structural weakness, and that weakness is likely to continue hunting the market for quite some time,” the analyst said. “Because of this, the market may remain in a bearish environment for longer than most expect.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has crossed the 760,000 Bitcoin threshold with its latest purchase, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC as of March 16, 2026. The market intelligence company continues to purchase BTC, despite broader market downtrends and ongoing volatility. Against this backdrop, AI analysis is now shedding light on how long it could take for Strategy to reach the 1 million BTC milestone, with different models projecting varying timelines. Grok AI Predicts When Strategy Hits 1 Million BTC Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 761,000 BTC after its record weekly purchase of 22,3337 BTC for approximately $1.57 billion. The company’s aggressive accumulation strategy, led by CEO Michael Saylor, is accelerated by its ambition to grow its Bitcoin treasury as substantially as possible, with some analysts projecting it could reach a million BTC cap by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Saylor’s Strategy Makes Every Time Bitcoin Goes Up By $1,000 However, according to projections from Grok, the AI platform created by xAI and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, Strategy could realistically reach the one million BTC milestone as early as September 2026. Grok’s forecast is based on the company’s recent purchase velocity, which has increased significantly over the past few years. In the three weeks leading up to mid-March, Strategy acquired between 3,015 and 22,337 BTC per week, averaging roughly 14,450 BTC. If the company can maintain this pace, Grok predicts that it could mathematically reach the one million BTC mark by early July this year. However, maintaining such aggressive weekly acquisitions would require continuous capital raises exceeding $1 billion per week, which Grok notes is unlikely. The AI platform noted that the company currently needs an additional 238,932 BTC from its holdings to reach its official target. A more sustainable pace, accounting for historical averages of roughly 2,500 BTC per week with the STRC preferred stock funding program, points to a more realistic timeline around September 2026. This projection takes into account market liquidity, sustainable fundraising, dilution concerns, market volatility, and other key factors. ChatGPT Forecasts Strategy’s 1 Million Bitcoin Timeline ChatGPT AI projects a slightly more conservative scenario based on historical buying trends, capital capacity, and market conditions. According to the AI platform, Strategy would need approximately 5,550 BTC each week to hit 1 million BTC by December 2026, about 50-100% above its recent weekly averages. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Still Bearish And Price Is Headed Below $50,000; Analyst While this goal is ambitious, the AI suggests it could realistically be achieved by 2027. Its analysis indicates that if Strategy ramps up purchases through equity issuance and STRC funding, the 1 million BTC target could be recalibrated to late December 2026. However, factors such as market liquidity, price volatility, and uneven weekly acquisitions make it more plausible that the goal could slip into early January 2027. The AI platform noted that delays beyond this window are unlikely, given the company’s historically strong commitment to BTC accumulation and its funding resources. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is starting to show intriguing signals on the monthly time frame, with long-term data hinting at a potential shift in market structure. While short-term price action often captures attention, it is the higher-time-frame trends that typically define the broader market direction, and those signals are now starting to align in a way that looks increasingly significant. What The Monthly Candles Reveal About Market Direction The latest price action of Bitcoin suggests that the monthly low may already be in, with time-based statistics pointing to a strong probability of higher prices ahead. Market analyst Lennaert Snyder highlighted on X that, based on the past 10 years of BTC data, approximately 97.7% of monthly highs and lows are formed within the first 15 days of the month, suggesting the recent low is likely to hold for the rest of the month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Showing A Major Deviation From 2022, Analyst Says This Is A Different Foundation Snyder noted that around 80.7% of months go on to print a new P2 (Point 2) after the 17th day, based on the timing. These time-based statistics suggest that there is a higher chance that the BTC price will experience upward momentum this month. How Market Structure Holds While Timing Models Shift Bitcoin is showing a subtle shift in behavior as price has broken away from the established 14th pattern for the first time in the past 7 months, causing the market algorithms to shift over time. A crypto trader known as Killa on X claimed that it was possible to capitalize on all 5 occurrences of this setup during that period. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Early Trend Reversal Signs After Major Support Hold However, the current deviation represents only a single pivot from a time-based price structure, which on its own is not enough to invalidate the larger thesis. This simply alters how the price reacts around that specific pivot rather than changing the overall trend structure of the market. Killa emphasized that in this case, pivot helps identify periods where directional volatility is likely to increase, and this consistent pattern over the past 7 months has produced 5 high-quality opportunities. It is important to distinguish between time-based pivots and price structure. While pivots can fail or lose reliability over time, the underlying structural price behavior will ultimately remain a driver of the market direction. Looking ahead, attention is shifting to macro catalysts as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is approaching, and much of the narrative has already been priced in. Institutional players are already positioning ahead of the event. Currently, the price has pushed higher into it, and the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not produce a local up, leaving open the possibility that the upcoming FOMC decision could act as the next inflection point. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate has slipped below gold’s for the second time in its history, according to Fidelity Digital Assets, marking an unusual moment for an asset long defined by its outsized long-term returns. For markets, the signal is not just about relative performance against gold, but about what a slower growth profile may say about Bitcoin’s current market cycle. In a new Chart Chatter segment posted on X, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has been trending lower over time as the asset’s price has risen. That dynamic, he argued, has now produced a rare crossover. “What we are seeing now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for just the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We have now seen three straight months to start the year of CAGR below Gold’s.” What This Means For Bitcoin That is the key statistic in Fidelity’s framing. Bitcoin has spent most of its history comfortably ahead of gold on a five-year compounded basis, which made the January break notable on its own. The fact that it has now persisted for three consecutive months gives the move more weight, especially coming at a time Fidelity explicitly describes as a bear market. Related Reading: This Week Could Be The Most Volatile For Bitcoin In 2026, Top Expert Warns Wainwright tied the last comparable episode to the end of the previous cycle. “Back in 2022, we saw one such month of this occurring in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was bottoming out in the bear market around $15,000,” he said. “We are now once again in a bear market and below that CAGR for a longer stretch this time of three months.” In Fidelity’s telling, the drop below gold is rare, but it has also happened before during a moment of acute market weakness. The difference this time is duration. One month in late 2022 could be dismissed as a brief distortion near a cycle low. Three straight months in early 2026 suggests a more sustained compression in Bitcoin’s long-term return profile. At the same time, Fidelity did not frame the crossover as evidence that Bitcoin has lost its defining edge altogether. Wainwright was careful to stress the historical balance. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above Gold’s CAGR for the majority of its history,” he said. “So this is truly a unique instance and occurrence in Bitcoin, where it is now below the CAGR of Gold.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Picks Up Again, But $79,962 Remains The Key Resistance: On-Chain Data Gold’s side of the comparison is important too. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, then climbed to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026. That translates into a gain of about 67.1% over the past year and roughly 132.4% over two years — a surge that helps explain why Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has now slipped below gold’s. For now, the takeaway is straightforward: Bitcoin still has the stronger long-run record against gold across most of its history, but early 2026 has produced a rare exception. Whether that proves to be another late-bear-market anomaly or an early sign of a more mature, slower-growth Bitcoin is the question Fidelity has now put squarely in front of the market. At press time, BTC traded at $74,015. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering above the recently breached $74,000 resistance, positioning to reclaim price levels not seen since the fourth quarter of last year. However, this week’s activity is set to be turbulent, with market expert Virtual Bacon predicting it could be the “most volatile week in Bitcoin all year.” Bear Market Prevails In a report shared on social media platform X, Virtual Bacon noted that, although the current Bitcoin price uptrend is optimistic, significant challenges remain. The critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $93,000, while the 50-week SMA is around $98,000. The last lower high resistance is pegged at $94,000, creating a confluence of resistance in the $93,000 to $98,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Simply said, there is a 15% downside risk to support levels in the low $60,000 zone, against a 30% upside potential to resistance. Virtual Bacon emphasized that the chances of a rejection back into the previous range outweigh the possibility of a full breakout into a bull market. “This isn’t me being bearish,” he stated, emphasizing that the analysis is grounded in numerical realities. “We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above the $94,000 to $98,000 resistance.” Market Volatility Expected This Week Virtual Bacon’s concern regarding the expected volatility this week is attributed to several volatility catalysts. The first is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place from March 18-19. There is a 99.1% likelihood of no interest rate cuts. However, the expert believes that any comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—particularly concerning hawkish stances influenced by oil-driven inflation—could trigger a hard market sell-off. Furthermore, the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day enhances the potential for dramatic market movements. Current options data indicates heavy open interest clustered around the $74,000 to $75,000 range, suggesting that prices may stay constrained near this level until Friday’s expiry. Virtual Bacon noted that, if the Bitcoin price moves above $75,000, it could surge toward $80,000. However, if it drops below $70,000, it may amplify the downward trend. The ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding oil prices could further complicate market conditions. The expert contended that if oil prices approach $120, combined with FOMC and quadruple witching events, the market could experience significant instability. Two Scenarios For Bitcoin In the expert’s view, there are two main scenarios to consider by the end of the week. The first, a potential breakout, would see Bitcoin hold above the $75,000 mark through Friday’s expected volatility. He said that this could facilitate a move toward $80,000 and set the stage for renewed bullish sentiment as the market looks for recovery toward the critical resistance levels of $94,000 to $98,000 in the second quarter of the year. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 The second scenario involves a rejection at the $75,000 resistance level, leading to a post-expiry drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range. Virtual Bacon concludes that if such a decline occurs, the S&P 500 could break below its 200-day SMA, and oil prices could escalate, pushing Bitcoin back into prolonged bear market conditions, with scenarios suggesting prices could fall as low as $58,000 or even $43,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Despite a recent resurgence in prices, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are not expected to achieve new all-time highs this year, according to analysts at Citigroup. The company significantly revised its forecasts for both cryptocurrencies on Tuesday, reflecting concerns about the slow pace of legislative progress in the United States, which limits the potential for regulatory catalysts that could drive increased demand from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Targets Revised Downward In their latest update, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum’s forecast was reduced from $4,304 to $3,175. This suggests that, based on current trade prices, Bitcoin is predicted to increase by nearly 50% in the remaining months of the year from $74,360. Ethereum, on the other hand, would see a nearly 62% increase in price from its present level of $2,314 per token over the course of the year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Citi strategist Alex Saunders emphasized that while regulatory catalysts are essential for fostering greater adoption and inflows into the market, the opportunity for significant US legislative action this year is diminishing. The report further highlights that, under a recessionary economic climate, Bitcoin could see its price dip to as low as $58,000, while Ethereum might fall to around $1,198. Conversely, in a bullish scenario driven by heightened demand from end investors, Bitcoin’s price could reach $165,000, with Ethereum potentially climbing to $4,488. Tight Timeline For Crypto Legislation Progress The upcoming mid-term elections in November further complicate the legislative landscape for crypto-focused regulation. Should Democrats gain additional seats in Congress, the chances of passing the crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) could diminish. For the bill to advance, support from 7 Senate Democrats is required. Citigroup analysts suggest that Bitcoin is likely to trade within a range while awaiting developments in the legislative arena, with $70,000 acting as a significant price point as the US election approaches. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 Earlier on Tuesday, Bitcoinist reported that Alex Thorn from the research team at Galaxy Digital pointed out that time is of the essence. He cautioned that if progress is not made this month, the likelihood of passing the CLARITY Act this year will become “extremely low.” While negotiations in Washington D.C focus on resolving the stablecoin rewards issue, Thorn highlighted that additional challenges could emerge. These challenges may include discussions regarding decentralized finance (DeFi), investor protections, and broader ethical considerations in the digital asset sector. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A single on-chain indicator has quietly called every major Bitcoin cycle bottom for the past decade, and it is now approaching that important level once again. The setup comes from a monthly Bitcoin chart paired with the NUPL indicator, which tracks whether the average holder is sitting on unrealized profit or loss. In each of the last three major bear market lows, the indicator fell into the same area and touched a rising trendline. Nailing The Bitcoin Bottom Bitcoin’s latest break above $70,000 and into the mid-$70,000s has seen a bullish mood slowly returning. The fear and greed index has improved, but one question is still unresolved. Has the market already found its bottom, or is another washout still ahead? Interestingly, a long-term reading of the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, shows that the answer may lie in a pattern that has repeated across multiple market cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Far From Over? Analyst Shares How Painful Bear Markets Can Get NUPL is a clean sentiment gauge in Bitcoin analysis because it strips price action down to a question of whether holders, on average, are in profit or in pain. When the reading is high, the market is sitting on large unrealized gains. When it falls hard, those profits disappear, and losses dominate. The monthly candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin’s major cycle lows have consistently formed when NUPL resets into deep territory and tags a long-term ascending support line. That happened at the 2015 cycle bottom, repeated again at the 2018 bear market low, and showed up once more around the 2022 bottom. Each of those touches came at points when sentiment had already been crushed, and the Bitcoin price had shed most of its previous gains. The current NUPL reading of 22.9 represents a cryptocurrency that is still in modest aggregate profit, although it has shed a huge portion of the gains investors accumulated during the rally to the October 2025 peak above $126,000. Is The Bottom Already In? According to a crypto analyst that goes by the name CrypFlow on the social media platform X, the NUPL indicator is now approaching that level of Bitcoin bottoms again. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may still need another deeper reset in sentiment before the market reaches a true long-term washout. Price may have already corrected a lot, but the indicator shows the emotional capitulation seen at prior bottoms may not be complete yet. The NUPL might continue to push downwards and reach the trendline before a bottom is confirmed. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bulls Have Won And This Is The Next Target Although no single indicator can call every bottom with perfect precision, the NUPL leaves room for the possibility that one final price crash could still come before the next full cycle expansion begins. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $74,220, up by 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Strategy has once again strengthened its aggressive digital asset vault, adding another billion-dollar allocation of Bitcoin to its growing treasury. The move reinforces the company’s long-standing belief that BTC represents the most reliable store of value in the digital era, positioning Strategy even further ahead as the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. What Strategy’s Latest Purchase Means For The Capital Market According to analyst Adam Livingston’s post on X, Bitcoin advocate and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor of Strategy (MSTR) has released its latest Form 8-K, confirming another massive expansion of its BTC standard. Meanwhile, the BTC bears are currently consolidating around the market. Related Reading: Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Now $3.35 Billion In The Red As Saylor Tells Investors To Wait This week, Strategy has intensified its aggressive accumulation strategy after revealing in a new filing that it raised more than $1.5 billion and used the capital to purchase 22,337 additional BTC. The latest acquisition pushes the company’s total BTC holding to approximately 761,068 BTC, reinforcing Strategy’s position as the largest corporate holder of the digital asset. Livingston argues that the balance sheet got heavier, the funding engine got smarter, and the anti-MSRT commentariat got hit with another folding chair made of SEC fillings. In the video shared by Livingston, the expert explains why Strategy’s latest move is viewed as overwhelmingly bullish for its long-term outlook. Furthermore, Livingston shared insight on how STRC is becoming a game-changer for common shareholders by offering a more efficient way for Strategy to raise capital and expand its BTC holdings without relying on traditional methods. The analysis also addresses ongoing criticism around dilution, which many bearish takes fail to account for the underlying mathematics of Strategy’s model. The company is evolving into a powerful BTC accumulation vehicle that is systematically absorbing liquidity from the market and positioning itself as a dominant force in the digital asset space. Why Cross-Margining Is A Game-Changer For Hedge Funds The recent regulatory developments are marking a significant shift in how Bitcoin is being integrated into traditional finance. Crypto analyst MartyParty revealed that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), alongside institutions like the Options Clearing Corporation, has advanced rules via filings that allow cross-margining using BTC ETF holdings as collateral. Related Reading: US Bitcoin ETFs Hit 5-Day Inflow Streak For First Time In 2026 These changes allow hedge funds and institutional investors to use holdings in spot BTC ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC as collateral for equity options trading and other margin requirements. MartyParty highlighted that this development builds on earlier milestones, such as the approval of options BTC ETFs in 2024, including the ongoing expansion. Together, these developments reduce friction for institutions, making it easier to integrate BTC into broader portfolios without liquidation or segregating assets. The broader implication is a maturing financial ecosystem where BTC is increasingly treated as a legitimate collateral asset in TradFi, boosting liquidity and efficiency for large players. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Merlijn revealed that Bitcoin has flashed the most powerful fractal in the markets right now. This comes amid BTC’s rally to a one-month high of $75,000 despite the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Bitcoin Flashes Most Powerful Fractal In Markets Right Now In an X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has formed the most powerful fractal in the market right now. He noted that gold had formed this structure in 1974, when it completed three waves, followed by a Fibonacci extension and a parabolic move. Now, BTC is forming an identical structure, with the third step forming. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bulls Have Won And This Is The Next Target The analyst further said that $62,000 is the last line before the Fibonacci extension opens, and that if BTC holds this level, then the $226,000 Fibonacci target unlocks. However, if the leading crypto loses this level, then the fractal gets one more low first. Merlijn added that BTC is pointing to the same outcome as gold, with a parabolic move on the horizon. In another X post, the analyst provided a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, citing global liquidity. He noted that M2 is expanding again and that BTC has just entered the green accumulation zone. Merlijn explained that the last two times this combination appeared, BTC multiplied. He added that a hold above $74,000 will confirm this liquidity cycle, while a drop below $65,000 means one more compression before a rally to the upside. Bitcoin rallied to $75,000 yesterday, signaling that the leading crypto was again seeing bullish momentum despite the U.S.-Iran conflict. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that BTC could rally above $80,000 in the short term. Market Conditions Show Signs Of Stabilization And Market Recovery In a research report, the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode said that market conditions are showing signs of stabilization and gradual recovery. The spot CVD is said to have flipped decisively positive, which Glassnode noted reflects a return of aggressive buying pressure. Furthermore, the derivatives markets reflect rising but cautious engagement. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Base Case: What To Expect Before The Run-Up Above $100,000 Glassnode stated that futures open interest has edged higher as futures CVD surged, while funding payments moved further into negative territory, which points to persistent short positioning. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETFs are seeing renewed interest, although the on-chain analytics platform noted the total ETF trading volume has cooled slightly from prior elevated levels. Lastly, Glassnode mentioned that on-chain activity remains relatively muted, with active addresses declining below their lower band and transfer volumes improving modestly but remaining subdued. Fee volume is said to have remained stable, which reflects steady but quiet network usage. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $74,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has again come under sharp criticism after former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson questioned its legitimacy. His remarks, shared in a March 13, 2026, post on X, reignited debate over whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency is fundamentally sound or structurally flawed. Bitcoin Under Fire: What Boris Johnson’s Statement Suggests In his post, Johnson reiterated long-standing doubts about Bitcoin, noting that reports of investor losses had strengthened his skepticism. His comments highlight concerns over the cryptocurrency’s structure and the potential risks for participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Exchanges Could Be In Trouble, Here’s Why This perspective aligns with his previous column, where he described individuals drawn in by promises of profit but ultimately losing significant sums. One example involved a retired person who invested £500 hoping to double it, only to spend years attempting withdrawals while paying fees, eventually losing about £20,000. Johnson suggests these cases illustrate that Bitcoin is not only volatile but also part of an ecosystem where investors may face exploitation. He also questioned Bitcoin’s intrinsic value, describing it as a digital construct without physical backing or cultural significance. Johnson raised concerns about the anonymity of its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, arguing that the lack of accountability adds risk. His remarks imply that Bitcoin’s reliance on investor interest, along with its decentralized and opaque origins, could expose participants to dynamics reminiscent of fraudulent financial models. Is Bitcoin A Ponzi Scheme? Facts Behind The Claim While Johnson suggests Bitcoin may resemble a Ponzi scheme, this comparison is misleading. A classic Ponzi relies on a central organizer who guarantees fixed returns and pays earlier investors with new participants’ funds. Bitcoin, by contrast, has no central operator, no promised returns, and no mechanism for redistributing incoming funds. Transactions are verified by a decentralized network rather than a controlling entity. Bitcoin’s value comes from open market demand and a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, not the entry of new participants. The network is transparent, participation is voluntary, and the protocol enforces scarcity and transaction rules. These factors ensure Bitcoin lacks the defining features of a Ponzi scheme, as emphasized by Michael Saylor, who points out that decentralization removes the key elements required for such fraud. Related Reading: Pundit Shares What The XRP Float Is Likely To Be For Global Settlement However, some of Johnson’s observations reflect market realities. Price momentum often depends on investor sentiment, adoption trends, and liquidity, which can superficially resemble Ponzi-like growth patterns, especially when scams or misleading schemes exploit the cryptocurrency ecosystem. High-profile losses contribute to the perception of risk, even though Bitcoin’s structure is fundamentally different: it does not promise returns, is not centrally controlled, and allows free buying, selling, and storing of coins. While Bitcoin carries risks typical of any volatile asset, its decentralized design, transparent operation, and capped supply separate it from a Ponzi scheme. Johnson’s remarks highlight legitimate concerns about risk perception but do not reflect the cryptocurrency’s underlying mechanics. Featured image created with Daily Express, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is showing early signs of renewed demand after a February stretch marked by heavy selling across both retail and institutional venues, even as the broader macro backdrop remains unsupportive for risk assets. On-chain and ETF flow data now point to a market that is stabilizing, though not yet fully out of danger. That shift is notable because it is unfolding against a difficult backdrop. As CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost put it, “Despite escalating tensions in Iran, Bitcoin continues to show a degree of resilience, particularly compared to equities and commodities, which are increasingly displaying toppish market structures. This is all the more notable given that the upcoming FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver any rate cuts.” The market, in other words, is improving in spite of macro rather than because of it. Darkfost noted that current probabilities imply roughly a 99% chance of no change from the Federal Reserve, leaving traders focused less on an immediate policy move and more on forward guidance, especially whether officials reopen the door to future hikes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Mid-$80,000s As Peter Brandt Flags ‘Horn’ Pattern Within that setup, exchange flow data has started to look better. According to Darkfost, the 30-day moving average volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has shifted back toward buyers after plunging deeply negative in mid-February. On Feb. 16, the metric stood at -$145 million on Binance and -$88 million on Coinbase, a sign that “both retail and institutional participants were largely aligned on the sell side.” Today, those averages have moved back into positive territory at around +$21 million and +$14 million. It is still a modest move. But compared with the conditions seen a month ago, it marks a clear change in tone. Why $79,962 Remains The Key Resistance For Bitcoin ETF flow data presented by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. tells a similar story, though with an important caveat. Over the past month, US spot bitcoin ETF flows swung from capitulation to recovery. From Feb. 15 to 24, the 7-day average net flow remained negative, bottoming at -1,883 BTC per day on Feb. 18. The reversal began on Feb. 25, when flows recovered to +2,305 BTC per day, before peaking at +3,387 BTC per day on March 2. The latest reading has cooled to +1,472 BTC per day, while total ETF holdings rose from 1,264,982 BTC to 1,291,618 BTC over the month, an increase of 26,636 BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Adler’s conclusion is constructive, but measured. “ETF flows recovered after February’s outflow, liquidity returned to positive territory — demand is back,” he wrote. “But until spot closes above the Realized Price (~$80K), the ETF cohort remains underwater, and this level will likely slow any rally.” That realized price now sits at $79,962, down slightly from $80,501 on Feb. 15. Even after bitcoin rebounded from $63,756 on Feb. 24 to $74,788, spot still trades $5,174, or 6.5%, below the aggregate ETF cohort’s cost basis. That leaves a large pocket of holders in unrealized loss and creates the risk that any move toward $80,000 draws out supply from investors looking to exit near breakeven. For now, both analysts are describing the same market: selling pressure has eased, buyer activity has returned, and institutional demand is no longer deteriorating. But confirmation still matters. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $74,063. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is playing out a price movement that has convinced many traders that October 2025 was the cycle peak. However, an interesting technical analysis shows that the market structure still does not look complete. Analyst CryptoAmsterdam made the case that Bitcoin is moving through a temporary correction inside a much larger phase. If that reading is correct, then Bitcoin could still stage a stronger rally than previous bull markets. Bitcoin May Still Be Inside An Unfinished Macro Bull Cycle Every major Bitcoin bull run has followed a recognizable five-stage sequence: a bull phase, a bear phase, accumulation below the macro range, a disbelief rally back into range, and finally a parabolic move into new all-time highs. This structure has held across the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, each one completing all five stages within roughly a four-year window. The current cycle has not. Related Reading: Pundit Shares What The XRP Float Is Likely To Be For Global Settlement According to CryptoAmsterdam’s analysis, Bitcoin reached a new peak without delivering the characteristic Stage 5 parabolic expansion. The chart comparisons he shared by plotting Bitcoin’s weekly price action against prior cycles show that the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles each measured approximately 1,456 to 1,477 days from trough to peak, with Stage 5 accounting for the most explosive price movement in each case. That phase, however, appears structurally absent in the current cycle. Price action has entered a corrective period since the peak at $126,000, but the cycle framework, by this reading, is still open. Price Chart Comparison. Source: @damskotrades On X The technical analysis also shows that price action can look weak on a shorter time frame and still remain bullish on a much larger one. That is where Bitcoin appears to be sitting now. The chart setup shows the recent correction is only a mini-cycle correction forming inside a broader macro continuation. This reading becomes more interesting when placed beside gold and Alphabet. In both examples, price also advanced within a larger macro cycle, paused for a mid-cycle correction, and then resumed higher once that smaller reset was complete. According to CryptoAmsterdam, Bitcoin could now be doing something similar. If the reading is correct, then Bitcoin’s current price action is Stage 3 of a mini-cycle nested within the larger Stage 5 of that macrocycle. Therefore, the parabolic phase would still be ahead. Gold And Alphabet Inc. Source: @damskotrades On X Possibility Of A New Price High Another reason for a stronger rally is Bitcoin’s tendency to lag other assets. Over the last several years, Bitcoin has often printed macro structures similar to large-cap stocks, only with a delay that can stretch into hundreds of days. That makes Bitcoin look less like the leader of the cycle and more like the final participant. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Needs To Flow Through Ripple For XRP Price To Reach $3,700 Notably, technical analysis shows that gold has always bottomed well before Bitcoin did. For instance, Bitcoin moved higher during gold’s advance in the previous cycle in 2021 but underwent an entire mini-cycle correction while gold was trending straight up. Only when gold completed and topped its parabolic rally did Bitcoin take over into a vertical move, as shown in the chart below. Gold And BTC. Source: @damskotrades On X The next outlook now is that Bitcoin will continue its larger Stage 5 move like we saw with Gold and Google (Alphabet Inc.). The projected move is expected to push the Bitcoin price into macro cycle highs above $200,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s foray above $70,000, while encouraging, has not really done much to quell the expectations that this is only the start of the bear market. A number of analysts continue to warn investors that this might only be a temporary relief, with the real crash on the way. One of these analysts is HAMED_AZ, who took to the TradingView website to share why the Bitcoin price is still very bearish and why he expects a further crash before the cryptocurrency hits a bottom. Bitcoin Price Still Very Bearish According to HAMED, the Bitcoin price is still very bearish, despite the recent recovery, and this is due to the fact that it continues to trade inside a descending channel. This descending channel appeared on the daily timeframe, and since the price broke below the support at $79,000, it has completely eroded the bullish sentiment. Related Reading: Why The XRP Price Might Crash To $0.87 Before The Bear Market Ends Even now, the Bitcoin price has yet to retest the resistance that has now formed after this support level turned into resistance, showing weakness on the part of the bulls. Another important point that that the analyst makes is that this same zone is closely aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. All of these put together make it an important level to determine the next wave of action. If the cryptocurrency’s price continues to correct below the $79,000-$82,000 level, then it is possible that the price could experience another rejection that could send it crashing lower. This is because this level is an area that bears control. What To Expect In the case of a crash, then the crypto analyst suggests that there could be another 40% price crash. This would mean that the price would eventually fall below $50,000. The bottom for this move is placed somewhere around $47,000, which would mean that the Bitcoin price would be below 60% from all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Can Still Cross $1: Historical Cycle Performance Points To 750% Rally “If price reaches this zone and shows signs of rejection or weakening bullish momentum, the market may experience a bearish rejection, continuing the broader downtrend within the channel,” HAMED explained. “As long as price remains below the supply zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel, the dominant scenario favors a bearish continuation after a pullback into resistance.” On the flip side of this, there is still the possibility that the bulls will reclaim control of the cryptocurrency. This would happen if the Bitcoin price were to rally and break above $82,000. In this case, it would push to the upper boundary of the descending channel, leading to a potential trend reversal. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has briefly surpassed the critical resistance level of $74,000, generating renewed optimism among investors as key market indicators suggest the potential for a bottom and further recovery for the leading cryptocurrency. A Potential Surge To $108,000 Market analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a significant development in a social media post on Monday, noting that Bitcoin’s funding rates have turned negative. This particular signal has historically foreshadowed substantial relief rallies over the past three years. Martinez added that current market sentiment reflects a state of “peak fear,” which often indicates that the local bottom is close. Historical patterns reveal a consistent trajectory: when the majority are paying to short Bitcoin, it typically signifies a market rebound. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Dogecoin Price Will ‘Pump Hard’ Soon, Here’s Why The analyst has highlighted several past instances where this pattern played out effectively. For example, in December 2022, Bitcoin climbed from $17,800 to $24,800, a gain of 39%. Similarly, from March 2023, the cryptocurrency surged from $20,000 to $30,700, marking a 53% increase in price. The trend continued with notable jumps in August 2023 and beyond. Considering this pattern persists for the cryptocurrency, where Bitcoin has historically demonstrated an average gain of 46%, there is a possibility that the digital asset could rally back to approximately $108,000 for the first time since November of last year. Bitcoin Whales Return In addition to funding rates, blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant has reported further bullish signs for Bitcoin. Recent analysis by the firm indicates that the ratio of BTC whales on exchanges has reached its highest point in six years. An increase in this whale ratio often signifies a short-term bottom, while peaks in the ratio typically mark the commencement of an upward trend. Presently, the ratio of retail investors is at a six-year low, suggesting that larger players in the market are accumulating aggressively. On-chain indicators support the notion that Bitcoin may be poised for an upward movement, with the exchange whale ratio reinforcing the idea that the current price levels represent a bottom. Related Reading: Ripple Pushes XRP Global With Multi-Continent Expansion Drive In another observation on social media platform X (previously Twitter), market expert Jesus Martinez pointed out the presence of an unfilled Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between $80,000 and $84,000 for the leading cryptocurrency. Nine out of ten CME gaps have been successfully closed since August 2025, sparking speculation that the cryptocurrency may experience an additional 13% increase should it promptly fill the gap at $84,000 in the short term. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading slightly above the $74,100 mark, with gains of nearly 4% and 8% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Every few years, a chart pattern resurfaces in the Bitcoin market that commands serious attention because it has repeated itself with near-mechanical consistency across every major US midterm election cycle since Bitcoin first started trading. Bitcoin’s price history shows that these election-year corrections often happen near the end of major bull cycles before eventually giving way to another powerful expansion phase. Now, with the 2026 midterm cycle underway and Bitcoin already more than 50% off its all-time high, the coming months could include both a deeper correction and a much larger long-term rally. Bitcoin’s History With Mid-Term Election Years A recent chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel on the social media platform X examined how Bitcoin has behaved during past US midterm election years to create a recurring pattern of price movement. Particularly, Bitcoin posted steep losses in each of the three completed midterm election years on record. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Exchanges Could Be In Trouble, Here’s Why The first example appeared in 2014, when Bitcoin dropped by about 86% from its previous all-time high during the election year period. A similar development occurred in 2018, when the Bitcoin price action recorded another deep bear market, with Bitcoin falling about 84% from its peak. The pattern appeared again in 2022, when Bitcoin declined roughly 77% from its previous cycle high. Each of these corrections took place around the same stage of the four-year market cycle that coincided with US midterm elections. As shown in the chart below, each of the previous cycles had bottomed one or two months after the midterm elections. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X What The 2026 Cycle Could Mean For Bitcoin Bitcoin reached its most recent peak in October 2025, and the price action has since moved into a notable correction phase. Price data shows Bitcoin currently trading around $73,600, placing it roughly 42% below that all-time high. The lowest point of the decline so far came in February, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $63,000, which makes a correction of about 52% from the peak. If the historical election cycle pattern repeats in a similar fashion, then Bitcoin’s price could still see one final phase of downside before the beginning of the next long-term recovery phase. Related Reading: Pundit Shares What The XRP Float Is Likely To Be For Global Settlement The projection presented by analyst Crypto Patel places a potential bottom in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, possibly occurring between November 2026 and February 2027. The more consequential argument in Crypto Patel’s analysis is not the projected drawdown but what might follow the bottom. A review of price action that followed previous US midterm election years shows that Bitcoin recorded an average rally of about 54% before a minor pullback. That temporary pullback was later followed by a stronger rally that carried the price to new highs ahead of the next election cycle. Based on this historical sequence, the next major move after the 2026 midterm elections could eventually carry the Bitcoin price above $400,000 in the long term. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after firmly holding a major confluence support zone. The strong reaction from this level suggests that buyers have stepped in to absorb selling pressure. With the market beginning to stabilize, attention is now turning to whether this defense could mark the start of a broader bullish reversal. How Bitcoin Defends Major Confluence Zone Bitcoin has successfully defended a major confluence zone and is beginning to show early signs of recovery. According to Cryptorphic, after consolidating around the 200-week EMA and the Weekly Fair Value Gap between $70,000 and $76,000, market behavior appears to be shifting from absorption into the early stages of a potential trend reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Probes $73,000 Liquidity Pocket: Is The Next Leg Toward $80,000 Loading? From a key level perspective, the reclaimed support zone now sits between $70,500 and $73,900, where buyers have stepped in to stabilize the market. On the upside, resistance lies between $80,600 and $85,000, which represents the next major hurdle for bulls. However, the bullish outlook would be invalidated if Bitcoin records a weekly close back below the $68,000 level. Recent technical developments also support the improved structure. The latest weekly candle has formed a strong bullish setup right at the 200-week EMA, indicating that the earlier wave of aggressive sell-side pressure was absorbed by strong demand. Price has also reclaimed the $73,900 level, effectively flipping the former demand zone back into an active support area. The long lower wicks seen in previous weekly candles further reinforce this view. Rather than random noise, they point to consistent buying interest and institutional accumulation during the pullback. With selling pressure appearing to fade, the path of least resistance now seems tilted toward the upper boundaries of the previous range. BTC Breaks Out of Local Compression Charting the path ahead, Cryptorphic pointed out that Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of its immediate local compression phase. If the price can maintain strength above the $74,000 level, it would support the idea that a higher-timeframe base has already formed. Under that scenario, the next key objective for bulls would be a move toward $80,600, a level that previously served as a breakdown point. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Bottom In? MVRV Z-Score Says ‘Not Yet’ Should Bitcoin manage to push beyond the $85,000 mark, the outlook could shift even more decisively to the upside. A breakout above that resistance is expected to trigger a fresh impulsive move, potentially toward the $100,000 psychological milestone. From a broader perspective, the bias remains bullish. The recent correction has run its course, while the strong reaction at the 200-week EMA suggests that the market structure has been successfully defended. Thus, the environment continues to favor a long-term “buy the dip” strategy, with the market potentially rewarding those who accumulated during the retest of the $70,000 region. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com