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The Bitcoin price is currently over 30% below its all-time high of around $126,000, which was reached in the first week of October 2025. Unfortunately, it has gone downhill for the premier cryptocurrency since reaching this peak, starting with the infamous October 10 market bloodbath. The general consensus in the crypto market has been that this price downturn was triggered by the increasing selling pressure. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin price has not seen significant selling pressure in years. Lack Of Selling Pressure Means No Distribution In BTC Market In a December 27 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. revealed that the Bitcoin price has not seen strong selling pressure since early 2023. This puts the market leader on the verge of a new record in terms of selling activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovering In A Descending Range, But Alts Are Quietly Gaining Momentum The crypto pundit’s on-chain observation revolves around the Sales Pressure metric, which evaluates different indicators that track investor behavior and supply/demand dynamics. This metric tracks the movement of coins on the blockchain in real-time, providing insights into potential price movements.  CryptoQuant’s data shows that the Bitcoin price has gone 1,079 days without strong selling pressure, nearing the current all-time high of seller silence of around 1,125 days. Ultimately, this suggests that the BTC price is yet to see the selling pressure often associated with bear markets. According to Adler Jr., the lack of strong selling pressure means that the Bitcoin price has not seen mass profit-taking, capitulation events, or distribution. The on-chain analyst did note that the absence of selling pressure doesn’t automatically mean price growth for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, Adler Jr. highlighted that periods of major selling pressure are often followed by significant price moves for Bitcoin. As shown in the chart below, the Bitcoin price historically tends to go on an extended rally after a period of significant selling pressure. The price of BTC was below $1,000 as the sales pressure subsided in late 2015, before running to around $20,000 in December 2017. A similar occurrence could be observed after the Bitcoin price came out from under the sales pressure of 2019, before surging to the then-all-time high of around $69,000. Strong sales pressure is looking imminent for the Bitcoin price, especially as the period of seller silence nears its record high of 1,125 days. While the market leader might struggle during the period of strong selling pressure, the coin would likely exit the phase with an upward bounce. Nevertheless, Adler Jr. concluded that the Bitcoin market remains structurally resilient in its current state. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $87,810, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Crypto Trader Explains What Happens Next Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is holding steady within a descending range, showing little directional conviction, while several altcoins are quietly building strength. As the market consolidates, these smaller assets could hint at early upside moves before BTC breaks out. Key Resistance In Focus: $90,588 And The Descending Trendline According to a recent update by Kamile Uray, there are no changes in the key levels being tracked on the daily chart, as the focus remains on the $90,588 level and the descending blue trendline. Unless BTC can close above these levels, the current decline may continue. Any upward moves below the blue descending trend are considered corrective rather than a trend reversal. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About The first support zone to monitor during the decline is between $83,822 and $82,477. A daily close below $82,477 would signal a continuation of the downtrend and could open the door toward the $74,496–$71,237 zone, marked by the blue box. This lower zone is viewed as a strong support area where buyers may step in. Thus, a clear reversal confirmation is key before considering any significant upward move. Once confirmed, a rally toward the blue descending trendline could follow, testing resistance levels along the way. For the uptrend to resume decisively, BTC would need to close above $90,588 and break the descending resistance. Meanwhile, a daily close above $94,130 would confirm that the blue descending trend has been broken, potentially signaling a shift to sustained bullish momentum. LTF Moves Show Less Impulse, But Structure Holds Crypto analyst The Penguin noted that the lower time frame (LTF) is showing slightly less impulsive action, though the overall count remains unchanged. The recent moves on the LTF appear more like noise and do not affect the broader wave count, and confidence in a leading diagonal for wave 1 remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Phase Begins: Weekly Support Holds, Momentum Fades Putting Elliott Wave analysis aside for a moment and leaning on standard technical analysis, BTC is clearly respecting a defined range. As a result, a minor deviation toward the 0.886 level marked on the chart is being closely watched as a potential entry point. Bullish confirmation will come if BTC manages to close and hold above $90,500, which would invalidate the current bearish scenario and signal the potential for a more sustained upward trend. Until then, the short-term fluctuations are considered normal noise, especially with the yearly open approaching. On the altcoin side, momentum appears to be holding, suggesting potential upside. Outperformance is already visible in altcoins like XPL, indicating that while BTC consolidates, some alts are starting to push higher. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price dynamics heading into the next market cycle are being reframed by Michael Saylor, who argues that the forces capable of pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs have little to do with speculation, retail enthusiasm, or ETF-driven flows. Instead, Saylor’s outlook positions Bitcoin price appreciation as the outcome of a deeper structural transition that is unfolding quietly within the banking system.  Michael Saylor On Bitcoin Price’s Structural Shift As the market looks toward 2026, Michael Saylor’s thesis on Bitcoin price action focuses on a structural shift away from trader-driven dynamics toward regulated financial institutions, a transition that could fundamentally reshape how capital engages with Bitcoin at scale. For most of its history, Bitcoin price discovery has been dominated by cyclical trading behavior, leverage, and sentiment-driven momentum. Related Reading: Why The Current XRP Valuation Doesn’t Make Sense Even milestones such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, while broadening access, largely remain confined to traditional capital markets. Saylor’s view departs from this model by highlighting Bitcoin’s gradual integration into bank balance sheets, where valuation is driven by utility, collateralization, and long-term capital allocation rather than short-term market cycles. Recent developments underscore this shift. A growing number of major US banks have begun offering Bitcoin-collateralized loans, a move that signals a reclassification of Bitcoin from a high-volatility trading asset to a recognized form of financial collateral. Lending against Bitcoin reflects institutional confidence in its liquidity, custody standards, and long-term value stability. In practical terms, this positions Bitcoin alongside assets that are suitable for credit creation rather than short-term speculation. Once Bitcoin is integrated into lending structures, treasury operations, and institutional risk models, demand characteristics change materially. Capital deployed through these channels is not reactive to short-term price fluctuations. It is strategic, compliance-driven, and designed for multi-year horizons. This type of demand absorbs supply consistently, reinforcing scarcity dynamics already embedded in Bitcoin’s fixed issuance model. As a result, Bitcoin price appreciation becomes a function of sustained capital allocation rather than episodic market rallies. Banking Infrastructure And The New Ceiling For Bitcoin Price Saylor identifies 2026 as the period when the impact of banking adoption becomes fully visible. Major financial institutions such as Charles Schwab and Citigroup, planning to roll out Bitcoin custody and related services, point to a broader alignment between Bitcoin and regulated financial infrastructure.  Related Reading: $130 Million XRP Fumble: Analyst Reveals What Went Wrong Custody plays a pivotal role in this process. When banks custody Bitcoin, they unlock the ability to embed it across wealth management platforms, corporate treasury strategies, and secured lending products. This dramatically expands Bitcoin’s addressable capital base by enabling participation from institutions previously constrained by regulatory, operational, or fiduciary limitations.  As banking participation deepens, Bitcoin price behavior is likely to evolve. Volatility driven by leveraged trading and speculative positioning diminishes in relative importance, while long-term balance-sheet accumulation becomes a dominant force. In this environment, according to Saylor, Bitcoin’s new all-time highs will not be the product of sudden euphoria but the result of sustained absorption by institutions operating at scale. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The ongoing Bitcoin price play out leading into a bear market is now one of the most pressing questions in the crypto industry. Right now, Bitcoin is trading between $87,700 and $88,000, which is a 30% drop from the all-time high it reached in October 2025.  Price action alone often leaves room for debate, but on-chain data is beginning to offer clearer guidance. Notably, analysis from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting in a way that aligns more closely with early-stage bear market conditions. BCMI Drops Below Equilibrium The important bear market signal is from Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which is a composite indicator that blends price behavior with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a definitive cycle top. At the time, the assumption was that Bitcoin was consolidating after an extended rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow However, that view has weakened with the deterioration of market conditions. Particularly, Bitcoin’s price action has declined materially since late October, and the BCMI has fallen in tandem with the price. This joint decline suggests the market has reset not only through time but also through valuation and participation.  As shown on the chart below, the BCMI has now slipped below its equilibrium zone, and this is a development that is known to coincide with transitions into bearish phases, where rallies tend to be capped, and downside risks increase. A closer look at prior Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms formed only after BCMI compressed into the 0.25 to 0.35 range. Those levels reflected deep sentiment compression, washed-out positioning, and a structural reset of the market. At current readings, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index is less than 0.4. This reading is below equilibrium but still well above a bottom zone. This opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback. According to the analyst, a more durable bottom may only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI revisits 2019-2023 levels. Weak Sentiment Adds To Bear Market Evidence Market sentiment is also supporting the idea that Bitcoin is moving deeper into a bearish phase. Optimism has been really scarce in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable floor. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently posting a reading of 28, which places sentiment firmly in the Fear zone. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About This poor sentiment backdrop has been affirmed by industry commentary. For instance, Changpeng Zhao recently noted that many investors only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at all-time highs. In practice, those early accumulations happened during periods like the present one, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt dominate market psychology. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain its position below the $90,000 threshold, market sentiment appears to be shifting toward the possibility of a new bear market. Notably, analyst Ali Martinez has drawn comparisons with historical market cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s trajectory.  Bitcoin Market Patterns In a recent social media post, Martinez highlighted a recurring pattern that suggests it typically takes around 1,064 days for Bitcoin to transition from a market bottom to a market top, followed by approximately 364 days from a market peak back to the next bottom. Related Reading: Ethereum Fails To Surpass $3,000: Predictions For The Final Days Of The Year In the first cycle, the market bottomed out in January 2015 and reached its peak in December 2017, exactly 1,064 days later. This was followed by a bear market that lasted 364 days, culminating in the bottom in December 2018.  The second cycle mirrored this pattern: the market bottomed in December 2018 and reached its apex in November 2021, again over a span of 1,064 days. Subsequently, another downturn followed, leading to a bottom in November 2022, when Bitcoin traded around $15,500. Next Bottom At $37,500? Currently, the analyst highlights that the market is in what could be the third cycle, having witnessed a market bottom in November 2022 and a current peak above $126,000 reached back in October.  Applying the historical patterns of these cycles, it suggests that Bitcoin is now within the 364-day correction window, indicating a potential bottom could materialize around October 2026 — approximately 288 days from now. Related Reading: Altcoin Struggles: What The Future Holds And The Potential For A 2026 Revival Examining past bear markets offers additional context for projecting potential downside. The bear market from 2017 to 2018 saw a correction of approximately 84%, while the market decline from 2021 to 2022 experienced a retracement of roughly 77%.  Averaging these two corrections, Martinez suggests an expected retracement of around 80%, positioning Bitcoin’s next market bottom at around $37,500. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading slightly above the $88,290 mark, which is a 30% gap from the current peak.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin whale deposits to Binance fell sharply in December, a shift CryptoQuant framed as a constructive near-term signal because it implies less immediate sell-side supply moving onto the market’s biggest exchange venue. Bitcoin Selling Pressure Is Fading For Now CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote on Dec. 24 that “the latest data shows a clear decline in Bitcoin inflows to Binance coming from whales over the month of December.” He said monthly whale inflows dropped from roughly $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion, “effectively being halved within just a few weeks,” calling it “a significant slowdown in BTC deposits to Binance by the largest holders.” The bullish read is mostly mechanical. Exchange inflows are not the same thing as selling, but they are a prerequisite for selling at scale, and Binance remains the dominant exchange in exchange-related flows in CryptoQuant’s framing. Darkfost put it plainly: “In the current environment, the observed trend remains constructive. Binance continues to capture the largest share of exchange-related flows. When inflows from influential participants such as whales decline on this platform, it generally suggests a reduction in their selling pressure.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trading Near ‘Fair Value,’ Says On-Chain Model He also cautioned that a downtrend in aggregate deposits does not eliminate the risk of sudden, market-moving transfers. “That said, this broader trend does not rule out the occurrence of occasional significant movements,” Darkfost wrote. “Some inflows can still impact the market, even if they remain relatively isolated.” As an example, he pointed to a recent $466 million spike across the 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC cohorts, alongside more than $435 million in inflows coming specifically from the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range. Related Reading: The Macro Conditions For Bitcoin In 2026: Analyst Breaks Them Down Those bursts matter because they can reintroduce volatility even if the baseline is calmer. “These sudden movements are a reminder that whales retain the ability to influence volatility at any time, even within a broader slowdown,” Darkfost said, adding that when large holders “move thousands of BTC in single transactions,” they can trigger sharp moves “whether through sudden volatility spikes or deeper corrections, depending on the volumes deposited and potentially sold.” BTC Whale Capitulation On Pause A separate CryptoQuant update on Dec. 23 echoed the idea that the most acute stress may have eased. “Whale Capitulation on Pause,” the firm wrote, saying realized losses from “new whales” “significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K.” Since the recent low, CryptoQuant said, those realized losses “have declined and are now flat.” Put together, the message is that one key source of near-term supply pressure,large deposits onto Binance,has cooled, while the realized-loss impulse tied to “new whales” is no longer intensifying. The caveat is the same one Darkfost emphasized: the market can look quiet in aggregate and still get rattled by a handful of large deposits if whales decide to move size again. At press time, BTC traded at $87,792. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As the Bitcoin (BTC) price settles below the critical $90,000 support level, discussions about the potential onset of a new bear market are growing among experts and market analysts.  The market’s leading cryptocurrency, currently trading at approximately $87,370, has experienced a decline of over 30% from its all-time high of more than $126,000, drawing comparisons to past market behaviors, particularly those witnessed in December 2021. Fractal Patterns Resurface Notably, on December 24, 2021, Bitcoin was valued at around $51,700, marking a local peak before it plummeted to $34,000 by January 24, 2022. This decline represented a significant 34% drop within just one month.  Related Reading: This Friday’s Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Shake Up The Market: What To Look Out For An expert analyzing the current market dynamics has applied a fractal model derived from that previous sell-off to Bitcoin’s present price. According to this analysis, there is a potential trajectory that could see the cryptocurrency move toward the $70,000 mark in the coming days.  The expert argues that given the current price action and current market conditions, this scenario is plausible and suggests an additional decline of about 20% for the Bitcoin price if a similar pattern unfolds. However, without clear direction, the question remains whether this situation will unfold into a recovery above key price levels or into an extended bear market heading into the first quarter of 2026. As such, perspectives among analysts vary widely.  Expert Predicts ‘Bitcoin Supercycle’ Ahead CryptoKaleo, another figure on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), posits that the current market mirrors conditions seen in the fall of 2020.  Both scenarios involved Bitcoin losing a critical support level that had been established in the wake of significant market corrections, leading to a “mini-bart” scenario where the price retraced nearly all of its previous gains, eventually finding a new base. During the recovery phase after the COVID-19 crash in 2020, traditional stocks, particularly in the tech sector, significantly outperformed Bitcoin, leading many to claim that the leading cryptocurrency was fading into irrelevance.  Related Reading: These Five Key Drivers Could Boost XRP To $5 By 2026, Claims Top Analyst Today, as equities frequently reach new all-time highs, a similar narrative is emerging, with some asserting that Bitcoin has become stagnant and altcoins are lacking momentum. Despite this, CryptoKaleo remains optimistic, suggesting that the present situation does not conform to the typical four-year market cycle for the cryptocurrency.  Instead of a prolonged bearish phase, he predicts that when Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs in 2026, it will usher in an exciting “supercycle,” characterized by prolonged upward trends, robust altcoin seasons, and a resurgence of retail interest in mainstream cryptocurrencies. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Macro trader plur daddy (@plur_daddy) argues bitcoin’s 2026 setup is less about crypto-specific catalysts and more about whether US liquidity conditions normalize after what he described as an unusually tight few months for risk. His central claim is that repo “plumbing” has been strained by a shortage of bank reserves as leverage in the economy grew faster than the Fed’s balance sheet, and that the resulting stress showed up in broader markets — “very choppy and rotational dynamics in equities” — alongside “a quite adverse environment for crypto.” Going into the new year, he expects a set of incremental shifts that could move conditions from tight back toward neutral, even if they do not create a new “loose” regime. 4 Macro Themes Will Be Crucial For Bitcoin The first lever is the Fed’s reserve management purchases (RMPs). “Since the Dec FOMC where they announced $40bn/mo in RMPs for 3 months (and an undefined lower amount thereafter), this liquidity has been flowing in. The Fed has already purchased $38bn of the first month’s allocation,” he wrote. “So far we haven’t seen a huge impact as this was being offset by year end liquidity factors as broker dealers close their books and reduce risk for the year end, but this should change.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise He stresses that the program is meant to relieve funding pressure, not fuel a risk-on melt-up. “I’ll add in the disclaimer that this is not QE, this is a targeted tool to unblock a clogged pipe in the financial plumbing matrix, so don’t get too carried away by the impact this can have,” he wrote. “It can help shift a tight environment back to normal, but it will not shift a normal environment to loose.” On sizing, he calls it imprecise but meaningful: “Gauging the deficit is more of an art than science, but gut feeling it is probably around $100-200bn (dovetails with the announced RMP size), so 1 month of RMPs is not going to plug the whole thing, but it should have a meaningful impact.” Second is fiscal incrementality. He expects a modest re-widening in the deficit: “My work suggests an expansion of $12-15bn/mo starting on Jan 1 from the OBBBA impacts,” he said, adding, “We are in a fiscal dominance regime.” The analyst ties recent softness to the opposite impulse, arguing deficit contraction — which he attributes to tariffs — has weighed on markets, and that even a partial reversal matters: “$12-15bn/mo is not enough to overcome the tariff impacts, but it is incremental vs. Nov/Dec, and I believe incrementality is what matters.” He also flags the eSLR change effective Jan. 1 for early adopters as a smaller tailwind, with broader banking deregulation “on deck for the 2026.” Third is disinflation and the policy path. He points to falling market-based inflation expectations, citing the one-year inflation swap, and frames the mix as a “goldilocks setup.” “The disinflationary environment creates a goldilocks setup,” he wrote. “The economy is weak but not too weak, and softer inflation gives the Fed air cover to keep cutting.” He notes markets are currently conservative — “a Jan cut at only 13%” and “a total of 2 cuts priced into the curve for the whole year” — then lays out his own baseline: “I’d expect something closer to 4 cuts assuming orthodox policy, and more than that with a Trump takeover.” Related Reading: Why Isn’t Bitcoin Going Up? Jeff Park Explains What’s Missing Finally, he argues politics could matter via the Fed chair. “Trump will ultimately value loyalty over all,” he wrote, because he believes Trump felt “betrayed by Powell.” He adds: “The Fed Chair is especially important on this dimension, since Trump lacks the authority to fire them, unlike other positions.” In his view, Kevin Hassett is “very likely” given that relationship. He also sketches market sensitivity: “Gold in particular will benefit from a Hassett nomination. Equities might have some heartburn initially but also think they will ultimately go up.” For bitcoin, his conclusion is cautious but directionally constructive if these macro pieces line up. “In terms of crypto, in theory all of this should benefit it,” he wrote. “I probably won’t play it, as I favor gold here, and crypto is increasingly a tough bet when you factor in the drains on mental capital.” Still, he leaves a timing tell: “However, there is a case to be made that if you were going to be bullish, somewhere around here is the time. Don’t be a hero, look for shifts in character and a positive response as liquidity conditions improve.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,053. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As the year comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a pivotal moment that could lead to increased market volatility. This Friday, December 26, more than $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, marking the largest options expiration in the cryptocurrency’s history. How $23 Billion Roll-Off May Impact Bitcoin Prices Market expert NoLimit took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to elucidate the significance of this event. Understanding options expiration is crucial to grasping its potential impact on the market.  In the expert’s words, options are leveraged bets on the future price of Bitcoin: call options anticipate an increase in price, while put options anticipate a decrease. When these options expire, one of two things happens: either they expire worthless, or they trigger hedging actions that necessitate buying or selling in the spot market. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecasts For 2026 Unveiled By AI Simulation: Should Investors Remain Bullish? With a massive $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options rolling off at once, a substantial amount of risk is being removed from dealer books in a single day. This clearing of positions is a primary driver of volatility. For perspective, previous year-end expiries have been significantly smaller: around $6 billion in 2021, $2.4 billion in 2022, $11 billion in 2023, and $19.8 billion in 2024.  The sheer scale of this upcoming expiry highlights a shift in the market landscape, indicating that it is now largely shaped by institutional investors rather than retail traders. The specificity of this Friday is particularly noteworthy. Dealers have strategically hedged their positions around key Bitcoin price levels, and as the options expiry arrives, these hedges will be unwound.  This process could lead to sharp price movements in either direction, especially given the current low-liquidity conditions in the market. The holiday season has resulted in diminished trading volume, which means that individual orders can impact prices more dramatically—potentially leading to violent price swings. Key Price Ranges Adding to the complexity, fellow market analyst MartyParty highlighted that significant gamma exposure is clustered in critical price ranges, particularly between $86,000 and $110,000.  Estimates suggest that high gamma—around $238 million or more in notional sensitivity—will expire, amplifying volatility through delta-hedging flows as Friday approaches. The maximum pain point, where Bitcoin option sellers face the greatest loss, is pegged at $96,000. Related Reading: New Crypto Tax Proposal: Bipartisan House Duo Pushes For Stablecoin Safe Harbor Furthermore, analysts from CryptoQuant weighed in on the situation, noting that while downside positioning has eased with the open interest in $85,000 puts declining, there remains a notable presence of $100,000 Bitcoin calls.  This suggests a cautious but persistent optimism for a potential “Santa rally,” according to the analysts. The risk reversals also indicate a softening of bearish sentiment as Bitcoin’s spot price stabilizes. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $87,292, having recorded a loss of 2.5% in the past 24 hours and a 30% gap between the current trading price and the record high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price could experience major swings this Friday as billions of dollars in options are set to expire. A crypto market expert has warned that the scale of this event could trigger “something big,” potentially affecting both volatility and the actions of retail and institutional investors.  Bitcoin Price Braces For Major Moves This Friday On Monday, crypto analyst NoLimit signaled that this upcoming Friday could be a historic moment for Bitcoin. According to the expert, over $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on December 26, marking the largest options expiry the market has ever seen. The analyst has stated that anyone with crypto holdings should pay close attention.  Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About NoLimit explained that an options expiry involves leveraged bets on Bitcoin’s price. He stated that calls are wagers that the price will rise, while puts predict it will fall. The analyst also emphasized that when these options expire, they either become worthless or force buying and selling in the spot market to hedge the positions.  He also highlighted that with $23.6 billion in options expiring in a single day, a massive amount of risk will be removed from dealer books all at once. According to the analysis, this risk offloading is a key driver of market volatility, as the magnitude of the expiry is unprecedented.  Looking at the data, previous year-end expiries were significantly smaller. In 2021, the options expiry was around $6 billion, followed by $2.4 billion in 2022. It climbed to $11 billion in 2023 and reached $19.8 billion in 2024. NoLimit has suggested that this year’s jump to $23.6 billion represents a significant shift in market dynamics.   The analyst pointed out that retail investors no longer dominate the market. He stated that institutional-sized risk is now being repriced in real time, and this Friday could trigger significant price movements. NoLimit also suggested that the scale and timing of the expiry make it a critical event for traders and investors in the market.  Analyst Reveals Why This Friday Truly Matters In his analysis, NoLimit outlined the specific reasons why this Friday truly matters as Bitcoin’s $23.6 billion options prepare to expire. He explained that dealers are heavily hedged around key strikes, and once expiry hits, those hedges are removed. As a result, the shift can trigger sharp moves for Bitcoin in either direction. Related Reading: Don’t Expect A Fast Bitcoin Move – Here’s How Long The Last Leg Could Take The analyst noted that current market conditions could further amplify the impact. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s liquidity is extremely low during the holiday week, and less volume typically means each order has more influence. As a result, the expert stated that a violent price move could occur even without major news.  NoLimit also noted that much of Bitcoin’s Open Interest is concentrated near the major psychological levels. Once the expiry passes, this open interest disappears entirely. He explained that this is why markets often experience sideways trading leading into expiry, followed by a clear directional move shortly afterward. The analyst added that volatility is the key setup this week. He says the crucial moment to watch is the Bitcoin price after the expiry, not before. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s recent price action has started to wear on people. After a strong start to the year and a run that pushed above $100,000 and briefly touched $125,000, the market has drifted into something closer to a low-volatility grind. On the 1000x podcast, ProCap’s Jeff Park argued that this shift in “market structure” is not a minor detail. In his view, it is the central reason Bitcoin has struggled to reassert momentum, even as gold and other commodities have pushed to fresh highs. Bitcoin Needs Volatility Park’s thesis is straightforward: Bitcoin’s upside story historically leans on volatility. If volatility compresses and stays compressed, Bitcoin loses one of the features that has consistently attracted marginal risk capital, especially the kind of capital that shows up early, pushes price, and then pulls in the next cohort behind it. “There’s two things we need to hit on,” Park said. “One is the belief in the projection that I have for Bitcoin to reach meaningfully new highs that we need implied volatility and realized volatility to rise concurrently. And then the second is to your question, why is that not happening today?” He framed Bitcoin less as an isolated “crypto asset” and more as one instrument in a much wider relative-value universe. In that universe, Bitcoin competes for allocation with equities, rates, FX, and commodities, not just other tokens. And the attribute that made Bitcoin distinct for many allocators was its capacity for asymmetric outcomes, which volatility helps express. Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise “Bitcoin is not in a microcosm of its own, right?” Park said. “You’re competing with Mag 7, you’re competing with gold, you’re competing with FX, you’re competing with JGBs, and it’s a huge world out there. And the feature that I think Bitcoin has always been exciting for a lot of folks is to capitalize upon asymmetric outcomes in which the volatility is one of the unique features that makes it worthwhile for the risk-taking endeavor.” Bitcoin Needs ‘Real’ Buyers That sets up the uncomfortable comparison the hosts kept circling: gold making new highs while Bitcoin lags. Park didn’t try to wave it away. He called it a moment for Bitcoin holders to be realistic about adoption and about where the truly structural bids are right now. “The reality is gold is going up because there’s real buyers, right?” he said. “There’s real buyers stepping in as there has been for the past year and a half. And those structural bids continue to exist because it has found a product market fit within our global monetary framework as a reserve asset.” Park argued Bitcoin is not there yet. Yes, there are recurring headlines about sovereign interest, and he referenced the Czech Republic’s central bank as an example of a country testing Bitcoin exposure. But he emphasized that the dominant flows in 2025 have been ETFs and corporates, not governments and not central banks. “Make no mistake, it’s not governments and it’s not central banks,” he said. “Most of the flows today have come from ETFs and corporates. ETFs are coming because there’s private wealth investment advisors that want exposure to an asset class… Corporates have a very different intention of what they’re trying to accomplish.” Related Reading: Galaxy Predicts Bitcoin At $250,000 In 2027, Chaos In 2026 In Park’s telling, that distinction matters because it changes the market’s tone. ETF buyers are often seeking portfolio construction benefits, decorrelation, optionality, a non-consensus sleeve, rather than the kind of high-conviction, narrative-driven bid that historically made Bitcoin feel like the market’s main event. Retail Adoption Must Return Park then extended the argument into a broader cultural point about who actually pushes new adoption. He described Bitcoin as a generational project and warned that institutionalization only works if it remains anchored to retail participation rather than replacing it. “At the core of it is because Bitcoin is a movement of young people’s hearts,” Park said. “If young people stop participating, I think the fact that the institutionalization of Wall Street is happening on the back of their investments is also going to come to a halt… If you want Bitcoin to continue to perform, you want to appeal to young participants.” He also pointed to a separate drag: Bitcoin’s risk conversation has become noisier. Park cited renewed “quantum anxiety” and internal disputes around various Bitcoin Improvement Proposals, arguing that even low-probability existential risks need to be compensated and low volatility does not offer that compensation. “Gold doesn’t have that,” he said, contrasting Bitcoin’s ongoing protocol and existential debates with gold’s comparatively settled narrative. “You have to be compensated for it… and you are certainly not going to be compensated for quantum risk with Bitcoin vol at 25.” Even so, Park did not present the long-term case as broken. If anything, he argued Bitcoin’s advantage becomes more obvious when you focus on practical ownership rather than financialized wrappers. He described physical gold as operationally difficult – opaque pricing, logistical friction, authenticity concerns — and said Bitcoin still offers something closer to a single global clearing price and simpler portability. “Anyone who’s ever tried to buy physical gold knows how annoying that process is,” he said. “The pricing is intransparent. The logistics is unclear and ultimately authenticity too… Bitcoin still has what I call a singularly clearing price for trading.” Why Isn’t Bitcoin Going Up? | Jeff Park https://t.co/CxtFhRKcIZ — 1000x (@1000xPod) December 22, 2025 At the end, Park said the main question going forward is whether Bitcoin can regain the conditions that historically pulled new participants into the trade and whether the market is willing to pay for the risk it keeps insisting Bitcoin represents. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,779. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a critical level as market participants watch closely for its next major move. A crypto analyst has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency is approaching a make-or-break level as it hovers around a key support zone that has been holding the price in the short term. The analyst has also outlined clear upside and downside levels that could determine whether the Bitcoin price regains momentum towards $90,000 or faces renewed downward pressure.  Bitcoin To Face Make Or Break Zone At $100,000 In an X post this Monday, crypto expert CyrilXBT presented a fresh Bitcoin market outlook suggesting its price could be nearing a critical make-or-break level. He noted that Bitcoin was still in a broader downtrend from its peak, but recent price action suggested the market may be forming a base rather than continuing lower.  Related Reading: Expert Predicts The Most Realistic Timeframe For XRP Price To Reach $100 The accompanying chart clearly reflected this bearish structure. It showed a series of lower highs after the market peak, reinforcing the idea that BTC is presently in a decline. Price action was also compressed into a tight range above a highlighted support zone, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers.  According to CyrilXBT, fortunately, the $84,000 to $88,000 zone has been doing most of the heavy lifting, with buyers actively defending it. He revealed that repeated tests of this range had failed to produce a decisive breakdown, showing that demand remained present despite sustained selling pressure.  CyrilXBT has stated that as long as Bitcoin continues to hold the $84,000 to $88,000 region, prices will move upward at a slow but steady pace rather than making an explosive move. He noted that this type of structure often pushes BTC toward the $92,000 to $95,000 range, which he has set as BTC’s first upside target. This move is described as a recovery attempt within the existing trend rather than a complete reversal.  The analyst pointed to $100,000 as the most important level above the current price. He noted that this level had previously provided strong support and had now flipped to resistance. He further described $100,000 as the true make-or-break level that would determine whether Bitcoin could regain bullish momentum. Related Reading: XRP Holders Are In For More Pain As There’s ‘Not A Single Support Holding’ BTC Risks Crash If Resistance Fails  In his post, CyrilXBTC noted that if BTC fails to hold $100,000, its price outlook could turn bearish quickly. The crypto analyst disclosed that a loss of the $84,000 area could trigger a steeper decline toward lower support zones between $76,000 and $72,000. He also indicated that this area represented the next major level at which buyers could step in to prevent further downside.   At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $87,000 after declining by more than 8.5% this year. If a crash below $84,000 occurs, the cryptocurrency could lose between 12.6% and 17.2% of its market value.   Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s recent bounce may look like a sign of renewed strength, but the price action tells a more deceptive story. With downside liquidity still thin and support holding firm, the market appears primed for a move that draws in eager bulls rather than rewarding them. This rally could be less about recovery and more about setting the stage for maximum pain when sentiment flips. Aligning The Mid- And Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook During an in-depth technical and psychological analysis, Mr. Wall Street explained that his broader outlook on Bitcoin had already been clarified a week earlier, after some confusion around his mid and long-term stance. With those time horizons now clearly defined, he turned his focus to the short-term picture, outlining current market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin In Standby Mode: Weekend Ranges Rule Before Holiday ‘Chop’ He reiterated that while his mid-term bias on Bitcoin remains bearish, the short-term structure has turned bullish. The reason centered on insufficient downside liquidity to justify market makers initiating the next major leg lower. This imbalance supported the case for a temporary relief move to the upside. Thus, Mr. Wall Street placed long positions around the Value Area Low between $80,000 and $84,000 on a bounce that could later evolve into a bull trap. Shortly after, Bitcoin dipped and successfully retested the $84,000 level, which aligns with the weekly MA100, following several deceptive upside moves. As a result, his long orders were filled as planned, leaving him holding a position from $84,550. The analyst noted that he plans to exit only in the $98,000–$104,000 zone, where a Fair Value Gap converges with heavy liquidity, making it an ideal area to take profit. Being In Longs Doesn’t Change The Macro Bearish Thesis Mr. Wall Street clarified that holding long positions does not signal a bullish shift on Bitcoin. The broader outlook remains bearish, with expectations for the next major downside move toward the $64,000–$70,000 region. In the short term, Bitcoin is sitting at strong support while downside liquidity is limited, which reduces the probability of an immediate continuation lower. Related Reading: Citi Analysts Project Bitcoin Price Could Reach $189,000 Next Year In Bullish Scenario A more logical scenario involves market makers engineering a bullish move to attract retail participation. As late buyers enter long positions, they gradually become exit liquidity, setting the stage for a larger downside move once sufficient liquidity is built. He also mentioned the $68,000–$74,000 zone had become too widely anticipated to function as a true “maximum pain” area capable of resetting market structure. For that reason, the downside target was revised lower to the $64,000–$70,000 range, with expectations that this zone could be reached in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2026. This level represents an initial major target rather than the final bottom. Recent price action was highlighted as a clear example of these dynamics. Bitcoin’s rapid move from $87,000 to $90,000, followed by a sharp drop to $85,000 within hours, resulted in widespread liquidations. Many traders chased the upside and were quickly trapped, and fake moves in both directions are likely to continue as liquidity is built ahead of a larger move lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has been characterized by tight consolidation and fading momentum. After recovering from a dip toward the $85,000 area last week, Bitcoin has spent most of the time trading between roughly $87,500 and $89,000, struggling to build a sustained move in either direction. This ongoing indecision has led to technical commentary from a crypto analyst known as DrBullZeus, who noted that Bitcoin is currently trapped inside a clearly defined range and may need a decisive breakout before the next directional move becomes clear. Bitcoin Continues To Respect A Well-Defined Range According to the analysis, Bitcoin is still trading inside a clearly established range, repeatedly bouncing between the same support and resistance zones. These zones are highlighted in the 1-hour candlestick timeframe chart below, which shows the Bitcoin price oscillating between a lower support area around the mid-$87,000 region and an upper resistance band just below $90,000.  Related Reading: Crypto Founder Reveals What Will Drive Bitcoin Price To $200,000 In 2026 Multiple daily candlesticks have tested both zones without producing sustained follow-through, and this strengthens the idea that neither bulls nor bears currently have full control. Short-term breakouts have quickly stalled, and pullbacks have failed to develop into deeper corrections. This type of price behavior suggests equilibrium, where buyers step in near support, and sellers defend resistance to keep the price volatility contained.  Important Levels That Could Define The Next Major Move According to the technical analysis, Bitcoin’s next direction depends on how the price reacts around two clearly defined levels. The resistance zone just below $90,000 is the main hurdle on the upside. Related Reading: Don’t Expect A Fast Bitcoin Move – Here’s How Long The Last Leg Could Take A clean break and sustained hold above this area would mean that buyers are finally gaining control and allow for a push to the $92,000 level highlighted on the chart. Recent attempts to move higher have stalled at this zone, which is why a decisive breakout would likely attract fresh momentum and shift short-term sentiment from range trading to bullish. On the downside, support in the $87,000 range is still acting as a buffer against deeper losses. As long as this level holds, the range structure between support and resistance will stay intact. However, a clear loss of this support would change the short-term sentiment from range trading to bearish very quickly. This, in turn, will expose Bitcoin to a move back toward the $85,000 area, where price previously found strong demand in early December. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,690, up by 1.1% in the past 24 hours. The latest price action has been shaped by a rebound from an intraday low near $87,655, a level that closely aligns with the support zone highlighted in the technical analysis and reinforces its importance in the current market structure. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price has spent recent sessions grinding sideways after failing to reclaim higher resistance levels, trading within a narrow range and frustrating both bullish and bearish Bitcoin investors. The lack of follow-through has intensified market debate, with macroeconomic headlines driving sharp sentiment swings. Amid the uncertainty, a crypto analyst has pushed back against the prevailing noise, arguing that Bitcoin’s price action is telling a far clearer story than narratives suggest. Bitcoin’s Price Action Exposes The Limits Of Narrative-Based Trading In a recent post on X, the analyst asserts that Bitcoin’s recent performance highlights a disconnect between market headlines and actual trading behavior. After pulling back from recent highs, Bitcoin has stabilized in the $70,000–$90,000 range, repeatedly defending key support levels rather than accelerating lower. Despite widespread attention to inflation reports, central bank commentary, and macroeconomic uncertainty, this steady behavior suggests that the market is responding to price movements rather than external narratives. Related Reading: XRP Holders Are In For More Pain As There’s ‘Not A Single Support Holding’ The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin is following a clear technical structure, confined within an ascending channel, which has guided price behavior over recent sessions. Attempts to push the price below support have repeatedly failed, demonstrating that selling pressure lacks the strength to disrupt the broader trend. Because market sentiment typically lags price, panic-driven headlines and bearish projections often exaggerate perceived weakness. In this context, sideways movement represents a natural pause, allowing the market to rebalance positions without indicating a reversal. This range-bound behavior, the analyst explains, reflects measured control rather than disorder. After recent volatility, the stabilization of Bitcoin’s price highlights disciplined accumulation and cautious positioning among market participants. Consolidation within the channel forms part of a functional market rhythm, helping the trend digest prior moves while preserving structural integrity. As long as support holds, he argues, the ascending framework remains valid, reinforcing the broader bullish trend. Chart Insights For Bitcoin Investors Amid Sideways Trading With a chart posted alongside his statement, the analyst describes Bitcoin’s recent price action as a corrective consolidation. He notes that after those losses, price has stabilized, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers. Bulls are hoping for a rebound, bears are anticipating a breakdown, and the price movement shows both sides testing each other.  Related Reading: Ripple Goes Institutional: What The Doppler Finance And SBI Partnership Means For XRP He adds that upward moves remain capped below previous support levels, while higher lows indicate corrective positioning rather than renewed strength. The analyst explicitly states that his price target remains 96k, as long as Bitcoin holds the ascending channel structure. This target frames his bullish outlook despite the ongoing consolidation, showing that he expects the trend to continue within the defined structure rather than reversing. He emphasizes that phases like this often precede more decisive moves: a breakdown of the channel could signal renewed downside, while a sustained break above the upper boundary would be needed to challenge the prevailing trend. Until such developments occur, he stresses that investors should focus on structure rather than short-term noise. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The recent Bitcoin price decline has already triggered a major sell-off wave across the crypto market, and it doesn’t seem to be letting up anytime soon. While trading below $90,000, there are a number of implications for the pioneer cryptocurrency depending on the next move. The tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears makes either direction possible, and with major levels lying at risk, a crypto analyst has analyzed what the consequences of each move could be. How Bitcoin Price Could Play Out Either Way Crypto analyst HAMED_AZ analyzes the Bitcoin price chart, pointing out the current trend and what could lead to either a recovery or a crash. First, the crypto analyst outlines that the bitcoin price is now in a corrective phase. This began with the all-time high record of $126,000, and since then, the cryptocurrency has lost more than $35,000 of its value. Related Reading: Citi Projects $143,000 Base Case For Bitcoin In 12-Month Outlook The corrective phase also places the cryptocurrency inside a tight range, holding it between $84,000 and $94,000. Both of these levels have served as major support and resistance in the past, making them the points to beat that will determine the next move. A continuation of trading inside this range ensures that the Bitcoin price does not see any major move. The main move will happen when either of these support or resistance levels is broken, depending on which camp is able to pull the momentum in their favor. Bull Or Bear Case To Watch Out For The first case is if the Bitcoin bulls are able to crush the resistance that has been mounting at $94,000 over the last week. Since the expectations for an upward move are high, if it does play out this way, then it would push the Bitcoin price toward retesting this resistance level. Related Reading: Don’t Expect A Fast Bitcoin Move – Here’s How Long The Last Leg Could Take If the breakout is confirmed and the resistance fails, then the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will once again cross above the psychological level of $100,000. The main target lies as high as $108,000 before the momentum runs out. However, there is still the possibility of the bears taking control if they are able to push the price below the $84,000 support. This level acted as the major support in the last downtrend, so it has become the level to hold. Failure to secure this level would trigger a crash that could send the Bitcoin price as low as $72,000. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Galaxy Research is willing to put a big number on the board, $250,000 bitcoin by the end of 2027, while basically refusing to pretend 2026 will cooperate with clean forecasting. The firm’s 2026 outlook calls next year “too chaotic to predict,” even as it concedes that new all-time highs could still happen somewhere in the mess. $250K Bitcoin By 2027, Turbulent 2026 “BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end 2026.” That options framing matters because it’s not a “we don’t know” shrug. It’s a quantifiable distribution of outcomes that, by Galaxy’s telling, looks unusually wide even by bitcoin standards. And it’s paired with a near-term threshold that reads like a risk manager’s note, not a moonshot memo. Related Reading: Bitcoin In Standby Mode: Weekend Ranges Rule Before Holiday ‘Chop’ “At the time of writing, broader crypto is already deep in a bear market, and bitcoin has failed to firmly re-establish its bullish momentum. Until BTC firmly re-establishes itself above $100-$105k, we feel risk remains to the downside in the near term. Other factors in the broader financial markets also create uncertainty, such as the rate of AI capex deployment, monetary policy conditions, and the US midterm elections in November.” If the price call is the headline, the more interesting subtext is that Galaxy thinks bitcoin is steadily turning into a more recognizable macro asset, not in the “digital gold” slogan sense, but in the way it trades and how its derivatives are being priced. The report points to a structural shift in longer-dated volatility, and it links some of that to the growth of institutional-style yield strategies that have been steadily eating into BTC’s historical vol premium. “Over the course of the year, we have seen a structural decrease in the level of longer term BTC volatility – some of this move can be the introduction of larger overwriting/BTC yield generation programs. What is notable is that the BTC vol smile now prices puts in vol terms as more expensive than calls, which was not the case 6 months ago. This is to say, we are moving from a skew normally seen in developing, growth-y markets to markets seen in more traditional macro assets.” That’s a subtle but consequential claim: the market is increasingly paying up for downside protection, and bitcoin’s “up only” convexity is being priced less like an emerging tech trade and more like something institutions hedge the way they hedge rates, FX, or equity beta. Galaxy’s view is that this process continues regardless of whether 2026 chops sideways, bleeds lower, or spikes and reverses. Related Reading: Bitcoin Washout Points To $180,000 In 90 Days, GMI Says “This maturation will likely continue, and whether or not bitcoin bleeds lower towards the 200-week moving average, the asset class’s maturation and institutional adoption are only increasing. 2026 could be a boring year for Bitcoin, and whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook (over longer time periods) is only growing stronger. Increasing institutional access is combining with relaxing monetary policy and a market in desperate search for non-dollar hedge assets.” Institutional Adoption Will Accelerate The distribution story shows up again in Galaxy’s ETF expectations, a direct bet on the pipes getting wider, not just sentiment turning risk-on for a quarter. “US spot crypto ETF net inflows will exceed $50 billion. 2025 already generated $23 billion of net inflows, and we expect that figure to accelerate in 2026 as institutional adoption deepens. With wirehouses lifting restrictions on advisor recommendations and major platforms such as the once-standoffish Vanguard adding crypto funds, BTC and ETH alone should surpass their 2025 flow levels as they make their way into more investor portfolios.” And it extends into model portfolios, the kind of institutional “default inclusion” that tends to matter more than a single headline allocation. “The final step is inclusion in model portfolios, which typically requires higher fund assets under management (AUM) and sustained liquidity, but we expect BTC funds to clear those thresholds and enter models at a 1%-2% strategic weight.” Galaxy’s 2026 message, then, is not that bitcoin is broken. It’s that the range of plausible outcomes is wide, and the market is pricing it that way. The 2027 message is the opposite: in the long run, they’re getting more confident, not less. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $89,225. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price looks set to end the year in the red, having produced one of its worst Q4 performances in recent years. However, it appears that the new year 2026 might bring the relief majority of the market expects. According to a recent evaluation, the Bitcoin price structure suggests that a deeper correction looks to be on the horizon for the market leader. BTC Price To Revisit $73,000 In 2026 Q1? In a December 20 post on the X platform, quant trader CryptoOnchain shared fresh insights into the current layout of the Bitcoin price. According to the market analyst, the price outlook of BTC is tilting towards a bearish scenario, especially as selling pressure remains evident on the chart. Related Reading: Analysts Warn Strategy Could Be Dropped From Multiple Indexes, Potential $9 Billion Loss Predicted CryptoOnchain said that the price of Bitcoin is hovering around the key Point of Control (POC) level. For context, the point of control (POC) refers to the price level with the highest volume of trading activity within a given period, thereby serving as a significant support or resistance zone. According to the crypto pundit, the failure of the Bitcoin price to quickly recover its former highs suggests an increased likelihood of seeing it break below its POC and towards the $70,000 – $73,000 range. CryptoOnchain identified this region, which was the last cycle’s peak, as a critical “support flip,” where buyers might look to step in aggressively. Furthermore, CryptoOnchain noted that the divergent Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds credence to the Bitcoin price falling to the support cushion around $70,000 – $73,000. “Traders should watch for reversal triggers around the $72,000 level,” the analyst added. However, the market pundit warned that holding the $70,000 – $73,000 zone might be critical in preventing an even deeper correction and an extended bear market for the Bitcoin price. In essence, this “support flip” is crucial for BTC to resume its long-term bullish structure and preserve the macro trend. The price of BTC visited the sub-$75,000 region in the year’s first quarter as the global financial markets reeled from what was initially breaking out as a trade war. Hence, a return to this price level might be a tad familiar to investors, albeit it would also represent an almost 20% decline from the current price point. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $88,330, reflecting no significant price change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Citi Analysts Project Bitcoin Price Could Reach $189,000 Next Year In Bullish Scenario Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) investors may need to temper their expectations as the cryptocurrency heads into its final bull run. Analysts indicate that the bull rally could unfold slowly, suggesting a gradual climb to new highs. Traders are being urged to prepare for heightened volatility and plan their strategies carefully to protect gains while staying positioned for potential upside.  Slow Climb Expected In Bitcoin’s Final Bull Run  A market expert who calls himself Crypto Waterman has shared his latest outlook on Bitcoin’s final bull run. He expects the last leg of the rally to be a slow and deliberate process rather than a sudden spike. According to him, the parabolic move could take roughly one to two months to complete, potentially unfolding during the first quarter of 2026.   Related Reading: XRP ETFs Grow Past $60M As Price Struggles To Respond Crypto Waterman warns that before this final surge, there will likely be intense market pressure to push out inexperienced investors. This period could include sudden shakeouts and volatility designed to test retail traders’ resolve. He also stated that many investors may exit too early as euphoria builds, while others will become bag holders as prices climb rapidly.  The analyst emphasized that smart wallets and BTC whales tend to sell into strength during this phase. For average investors, he suggests a careful strategy of dollar-cost averaging out of positions once gains become significant. Observing coins doubling in a single day could be an early signal to start reducing exposure.  Crypto Waterman also shares his personal approach to profit-taking, which involves selling 25% of his holdings when the price doubles. If Bitcoin triples, he says that he would offload 30-40% and consider selling nearly everything if the market feels overheated. He also stated that he would leave a small portion, “a moonbag,” to capture any remaining upside potential.  Analyst Warns Last Chance To Accumulate BTC Crypto Waterman offers guidance for traders looking to position themselves ahead of Bitcoin’s anticipated parabolic move. He suggests that the next two to three weeks may be the last chance to accumulate Bitcoin before the rally begins. He also highlighted the importance of timing, recommending that investors buy Bitcoin during significant dips rather than chasing rising prices.  The analyst has hinted at knowing the timing of the expected market shakeout, emphasizing that market conditions over the coming days will determine the exact moment it happens. He warns that traders should prepare for volatility and short-term price fluctuations. He also reminds investors to stay disciplined during periods of market euphoria.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Feels The Weight Of Quantum Risk Concerns, Industry Leaders Warn He shared that investors and traders should follow the “Warren Buffett” principle of being cautious when others are greedy and opportunistic when others are fearful. This strategy eliminates emotional decision-making in trading and investing, allowing holders to make rational moves as the Bitcoin market approaches its final bull phase.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has slipped into standby mode as the weekend unfolds, with price action remaining compressed inside a familiar range. Volatility is muted, momentum is lacking, and traders are largely focused on well-defined scalp levels rather than expecting a decisive move. With the holiday period approaching, patience and precision are taking center stage as the market waits for its next real catalyst. Bitcoin Slips Back Into Weekend Range Mode According to a recent update, analyst Lennaert Snyder noted that Bitcoin has once again entered a period of “weekend chop.” While he does not expect any major trending moves during this time, he has outlined several specific scalp scenarios and price traps he is monitoring closely to take advantage of short-term volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Phase Begins: Weekly Support Holds, Momentum Fades If Bitcoin swipes the wick near $88,865 and tests the resistance box situated just above it, he will be hunting for scalp-short opportunities, specifically after failing to hold the level. Conversely, for those looking to go long, he is eyeing the $87,420 level, which marks the start of the previous impulse and a key support box. If the price tests this area, Snyder will be watching for clear reversal patterns to trigger a scalp-long. However, if the market loses that “start impulse” support, the analyst believes a continuation short down to the $85,890 lows becomes highly probable. Once the price arrives at those deeper lows, he will pivot his strategy to wait for a reversal to long position. Finally, Snyder identified a major breakout trigger: when Bitcoin can gain and hold $89,375 (the top of the resistance box), the analyst assumes the market will finally squeeze toward the $90,400 region. While he doesn’t expect this breakout to materialize before Monday, he has his alerts set and suggests traders take the time to enjoy their weekend. Weekend Lull Keeps Bitcoin Range-Bound In an X post, analyst Daan Crypto Trades observed that BTC is entering the weekend in a state of relative stagnation. The analyst suggested that this is an ideal window for traders to step back and rest, allowing for a mental reset before the market dynamics potentially shift in the coming week. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details Despite various fluctuations, Bitcoin’s price has remained essentially unchanged over the past few weeks. The asset remains firmly stuck in the middle of its established range, lacking the necessary momentum to either break out toward new highs or break down into a deeper correction. Daan Crypto Trades warned that next week will likely be characterized by more choppy price action, as market activity often thins out significantly around the Christmas holidays. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has experienced a significant correction after reaching all-time highs above $126,000 in October, currently trading just above $87,900. This marks a notable 30% decline over the past few months.  Despite this setback, analysts at Citi express optimism for the cryptocurrency’s future, forecasting that its value will continue to rise through 2026. Optimistic Bitcoin Price Predictions According to Citi’s analysts, the base case for the Bitcoin price is set at $143,000, reflecting a potential 62% increase from current levels. In a more bullish scenario, the cryptocurrency could surge to over $189,000, indicating a substantial 114% increase.  Conversely, the analysts also present a bear case for the leading crypto, with an estimated price around $78,500, which would represent an additional 10.6% decline from current trading levels. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Support Shattered, Potential $100 Test Looms, Says Analyst The forecast from Citi relies on the assumption that investor adoption will persist, particularly with an influx of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) projected to reach $15 billion. This influx is seen as a catalyst that could significantly boost the Bitcoin price.  Furthermore, ongoing negotiations in the US Senate regarding their version of the crypto market structure bill, namely the CLARITY Act, which aims to regulate Bitcoin under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is anticipated to enhance market adoption. In contrast to Bitcoin, analysts express concerns regarding Ethereum’s (ETH) potential for growth. They argue that Ethereum, being viewed more as “programmable money,” has seen decreased activity, which has resulted in its current trading price of just below $3,000—40% below its all-time high of $4,964. Additional Catalyst For Price Growth Chris Neiger, an analyst at The Motley Fool, also attaches bullish predictions to the Bitcoin price future, highlighting that recent US job data reflects an unemployment rate increase to 4.6%, the highest since 2021.  He asserted that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) chose to lower interest rates by 2026, the Bitcoin price could benefit since lower rates typically enhance the cryptocurrency’s value by making borrowing more affordable. In November, JPMorgan provided a more conservative estimate, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 by 2026, with potential upside expected over the next six to twelve months.  Related Reading: Crypto Payments Firm MoonPay Set For $5 Billion Valuation With NYSE Owner’s Backing Meanwhile, even more aggressive predictions from market researcher Fundstrat forecast the Bitcoin price could soar between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026, largely driven by the mainstream adoption of ETFs. Additionally, the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the federal government has encouraged states to consider similar initiatives. Neiger concludes that just as ETFs have contributed to the credibility of cryptocurrencies and facilitated price increases, the formation of state-level Bitcoin reserves could serve as another critical driver propelling Bitcoin’s value higher in 2026. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Recent volatility in the Bitcoin market pullbacks is being widely interpreted as a wave of selling pressure, but the underlying data tells a different story. On-chain metrics show little evidence of broad holder distribution, suggesting that these dips are not being driven by investors exiting their positions. Instead, the weakness in price appears to stem from the market structure issues. Why Structural Weakness Is Often Temporary These Bitcoin dips aren’t coming from selling pressure; they’re coming from stablecoin-denominated shorts. The co-founder of GlydeGG, Sweep, revealed on X that when large amounts of leverage enter the system through dollar or stablecoin, market makers don’t just let the price move.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Their mandate is to remain neutral because neutrality demands balance. They achieve this by selling spot BTC, not because they’re bearish, but because neutrality requires it. As a result of that, the price drops without fear, panic, and without real spot.  The United States doesn’t need to dump assets to influence global markets; it exports dollars. Those dollars become leverage, while leverage creates synthetic pressure, which in turn forces hedging, and hedging hits the spot markets; that’s the cycle. This is why recent sell-offs feel empty, because retail has already left. Currently, the market is rebalancing within a system price against a weakening currency, and all markets are now denominated in a currency that’s losing purchasing power. That’s why volatility rises even when conviction doesn’t change. This isn’t a bear market; it’s clearing the Liquidity Providers (LPs), which is how big players buy BTC cheaply without ever owning it. How Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Are Entering A New Phase An ambassador and partner of Wolfswapdotapp, Crypto Miners, has pointed out that the Bitcoin supply dynamics are shifting fast. According to K33Research, nearly $300 billion worth of previously dormant BTC re-entered circulation in 2025. This supply release has been driven by long-term holder sales, large OTC transactions, and ETF-related absorption, which represents one of the largest supply unlocks in BTC history. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Phase Begins: Weekly Support Holds, Momentum Fades On-chain data from CryptoQuant has shown that the long-term holder distribution over the last 30 days has reached its highest level in more than five years. At the same time, the selling pressure currently is outweighing demand, as ETF flows turn negative, and retail participation has weakened. Despite near-term fragility, K33 noted that this distribution phase may be approaching exhaustion. The early holder selling is expected to fade into early 2026, potentially setting the stage for renewed accumulation as institutional rebalancing stabilizes supply. For now, the markets remain sensitive, but structurally, this looks like a late-cycle supply redistribution rather than panic selling. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics platform Glassnode has revealed the number of Bitcoin supply that is currently sitting at a loss. This comes as the BTC price continues to trade below the psychological $90,000 level following its crash, which began last month.  Here’s The Amount Of Bitcoin Supply At A Loss In a report, Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin supply in loss has risen to 6.7 million BTC, marking the highest level of loss-bearing supply observed in this cycle. The analytics platform further noted that this represents 23.7% of the circulating supply, which is currently underwater. 10.2% of this supply is held by long-term holders and 13.5% by short-term holders.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Glassnode stated that this distribution suggests that, much like in prior cycle transitions into deeper bearish regimes, the loss-bearing Bitcoin supply accumulated by recent buyers is gradually maturing into the long-term cohort. Meanwhile, the analytics platform noted that the 6-7 million range, which has been at a loss since mid-November, mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration came before a shift toward more bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower Bitcoin prices.  Notably, the Bitcoin price has dropped to levels last seen in 2024, erasing its year-to-date (YTD) gains. Glassnode stated that this has left behind a dense supply cluster accumulated by top buyers in the $93,000 to $120,000 range. The resulting supply distribution is said to reflect a top-heavy market structure where recovery attempts are capped by heavy overhead sell pressure, especially in the early stages of a bearish phase.  Glassnode declared that as long as the Bitcoin price remains below this range and fails to reclaim key thresholds, most notably the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, the risk of further corrective downside persists. BTC Spot Demand Is Unstable   Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin spot market flows continue to reflect an uneven demand profile across major venues. The Cumulative Volume Delta bias is said to show periodic bursts of buy-side activity, but has failed to develop into sustained accumulation, especially during the recent BTC price pullbacks.  Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Down Today? BlackRock Deposits Spark Worry The on-chain analytics platform noted that the Coinbase spot CVD remains relatively constructive, indicating steadier participation from US-based investors. On the other hand, Binance and aggregate Bitcoin flows remain choppy and largely directionless. Glassnode stated that these dispersion points point to selective engagement rather than coordinated spot demand.  Meanwhile, the platform alluded to recent Bitcoin price declines, which it pointed out have not triggered decisive expansion in positive CVD. Glassnode noted that this suggests dip-buying remains tactical and short-term. In the absence of sustained accumulation across all venues, Bitcoin’s price action continues to rely more on activity in the derivatives market and liquidity conditions rather than organic spot demand.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $86,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s options market has a new obsession: Christmas week. In a post Thursday, energy-sector managing partner David Eng argued the next eight days (December 19 through December 26) could define the near-term cycle for BTC, not because of a macro headline or some sudden ETF stampede, but because a large chunk of dealer gamma exposure is scheduled to roll off the board in two shots. At press time, bitcoin traded around $86,928, after swinging between roughly $84,461 and $89,230 intraday. Eng’s framing is blunt and very “options people”: the market is being mechanically pinned, and the pin has an expiry date The Hidden Force Holding Back Bitcoin Price? “The narrative isn’t just about tomorrow. We are staring down the barrel of a ‘Double-Barreled’ Liquidity Event that will wipe 67% of the entire derivatives board clean by December 26th,” Eng wrote. “Bitcoin is trading at $88,752, deep in the -25% Value Zone (Trend Value: $118k). The spring is coiled, but two massive structural weights are holding the lid down.” Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Diverge: Longs Dominate BTC, While ETH Shorts Rise Those “weights,” in his telling, are two expiries with meaningful gamma attached: roughly $128 million tied to Dec. 19 (21% of the total he tracks) and another $287 million at Dec. 26, which he calls the “boss level” ceiling. He labels the combined $415 million a coming “Gamma Flush,” arguing that once it clears, the hedging drag that’s been compressing spot price action should ease. The practical point is less mystical than it sounds. If dealers are sitting on meaningful gamma around a tight cluster of strikes, their delta-hedging can dampen volatility and keep spot gravitating around certain levels until that exposure decays or expires — the kind of “why does this tape feel glued?” frustration traders know too well. Eng’s map is built around very specific lines in the sand: $85k–$90k as the “mud” zone where hedging pressure keeps snapping price back, and $90,616 as the flip level he’s watching around the Dec. 19 expiry. “Stage 1: The Spark (Tomorrow, Dec 19) — $128 Million in Gamma expires tomorrow (21% of total). This is the ‘Appetizer.’ It removes the immediate suppression pinning us below $90k,” he wrote. “Watch the $90,616 flip level. If we clear this, the intraday shackles fall off.” But Eng is clearly more focused on the week after. “Stage 2: The Floodgate (Next Friday, Dec 26) — $287 Million in Gamma expires next week,” he continued. “A staggering 46.2% of all dealer gamma exposure sits on this single date… Dealers have a quarter-billion-dollar incentive to keep volatility crushed and price pinned near $85k-$90k through Christmas to harvest this premium.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Washout Points To $180,000 In 90 Days, GMI Says The claim, basically: pre-Dec. 26 is “thick mud,” post-Dec. 26 is the tape suddenly breathing again. “When you combine these two dates, $415,000,000 of gamma — two-thirds of the entire market structure — evaporates in the next 8 days,” Eng wrote. “Before Dec 26: The market is fighting through thick mud… After Dec 26: The mud dries up. The suppression mechanism is gone. The Power Law gravity ($118k) takes over without the dealer counter-flow.” He also tossed out a provocative ratio that’s been circulating in derivatives circles all year: dealer mechanics versus ETF demand. “Dealer Gamma forces are currently ~13x stronger than ETF Flows,” he wrote. “Dealer ~$507.6M, ETF ~$38M. This is why the market is obeying the technical gamma levels ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF volume.” Dealer Gamma forces are currently ~13x stronger than ETF Flows Dealer ~$507.6M ETF ~$38M This is why the market is obeying the technical gamma levels ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF volume. — David ???????? (@david_eng_mba) December 18, 2025 And when critics in the replies questioned whether “$287M” is even meaningful, Eng clarified what the figure is — and what it isn’t. “The $287M figure refers to dealer gamma exposure (GEX), not total options size,” he wrote. “GEX measures how much spot Bitcoin dealers may need to buy or sell to stay delta-neutral as price moves. It reflects hedging pressure, not notional value.” So the tradeable implication of Eng’s thesis is straightforward: expect the pinning games into Christmas, then watch whether a post-expiry regime shift actually shows up in realized volatility — and in price’s ability to stop bouncing off the same levels like it’s hitting invisible glass. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,953. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today as the crypto market remains in a phase of extreme fear. This latest crash came amid BlackRock’s move, which sparked fear of a sell-off from the world’s largest asset manager.  The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today following BlackRock’s transfer of 2,257 BTC and 74,973 ETH to Coinbase, indicating plans to offload these coins. Notably, the BTC and ETH ETFs recorded outflows on December 16, likely why the asset manager moved these coins to redeem shares for its IBIT and ETHA ETFs, which were sold that day.  Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Decline Amid BlackRock’s Transfer These Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have continued to record mixed flows, which have partly contributed to declines in BTC and ETH prices. Notably, the Bitcoin price had surged to around $90,000 yesterday from an intraday low of around $87,000, before retracing below $87,000 about an hour later. This immediately sparked theories of manipulation, with some crypto pundits revealing that BlackRock wasn’t the only one selling.  Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Crypto pundit Kruse claimed that Binance first bought nonstop for over 30 minutes to pump the price, then started dumping millions of BTC and ETH to liquidate longs. He noted that the Bitcoin price pumped about $3,300 in 30 minutes, with $106 million in shorts wiped out during that period.  Following that, BTC printed another volatile hourly candle to the downside, which flushed out $52 million in longs. A similar price action had also played out for the Ethereum price. Kruse declared that this wasn’t random volatility but rather liquidity hunting. The pundit further warned that this is how leverage gets punished in crypto. He then reiterated that the volatile Bitcoin and Ethereum price actions weren’t random, indicating the market is being manipulated.  Onchain Sleuth Tracer also accused Binance of being responsible for the Bitcoin and Ethereum price declines. He claimed that the crypto exchange pumped and dumped millions of BTC to liquidate traders, with $194 million in shorts and longs liquidated in one hour.  BTC And ETH To Hit New All-Time Highs Next Year? Crypto asset manager Bitwise has predicted that the Bitcoin price will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026. The asset manager alluded to factors such as the Bitcoin halving and interest rate cycles as what will drive this rally for the flagship crypto. The firm also remarked that crypto booms and busts fueled by leverage are weaker than in past cycles.  Related Reading: Ethereum 2-Year Trend Maps Out This Unique Crash Path To Bottom At $2,187 Bitwise also stated that institutions are likely to allocate more to Bitcoin ETFs, which is why they expect the Bitcoin price to reach new all-time highs next year. Furthermore, the firm noted that the pro-crypto regulatory shift will continue to allow companies to adopt crypto at a faster rate. The crypto asset manager also predicted that the Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high if the CLARITY Act passes. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin “oversold RSI” roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026—an outlook he says would render the traditional “four-year cycle” framework obsolete. “A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittel wrote, sharing a chart of bitcoin’s average price path after RSI falls below 30, with the RSI breach marked as t=0. “This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.” Can Bitcoin Skyrocket To $180,000 In Just 90 Days? Bittel said the overlay has matched the current tape. “So far, it’s been pretty bang on,” he wrote. The “average market path” line rises sharply over the weeks that follow. The chart shows a steep rally within 90 days after t=0, with the BTC price potentially surging near the $180,000 area. Related Reading: From Cycles To Continuity: Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Pattern May Be Breaking Still, Bittel emphasized the chart is not meant to be a precision forecast. “No, it won’t be perfect,” he wrote, adding that “assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.” He also warned that the rebound process can be uneven: “bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.” He reiterated the conditional nature of the framework in blunt terms. “If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along…” The bigger point, Bittel said, is that the familiar cycle narrative should not be taken for granted. “Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time,” he wrote. “As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.” In that scenario, he added, “the 4-year cycle is dead.” Bittel also challenged the common assumption that bitcoin’s rhythm is fundamentally “about the halving.” “Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle,” he wrote, adding that post-COVID that dynamic “was pushed out by one year.” He now argues the cycle is “officially broken” because “the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.” He framed the macro backdrop in terms of debt-service pressure and liquidity response. “The bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth,” Bittel wrote. Reactions across crypto X ranged from enthusiastic to skeptical. The ₿itcoin Therapist replied: “$180,000 BTC in 90 days.” Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ Panic Returns: History Says It’s A Late Signal LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) said the chart “lines up with our thinking,” tying the narrative to what it called the Fed’s “not QE QE” dynamics and “liquidity games” between the Treasury and the central bank. The account still anticipated turbulence into year-end—“noise and chop into year end (which is negative liquidity)”—before “these fundamental drivers start to see BTC reconnect with the bull trend,” adding that “sentiment appears sufficiently bad for a BTC move higher to be the most hated trade to start 2026!” Others struck a more sardonic tone. “precision-grade hopium here,” wrote doug funnie (@cryptoklotz), while still sketching a conditional path forward: Still think as long as BTC survives (ie doesn’t close in the $70k’s and starts grinding down or accepting there), there’s a plausible path to new highs on the earlier side in 2026. Just need to survive the ‘transition zone’ of 4 year deterministic selloors exhausting, and then ending up in an awkward spot as the music keeps playing.” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards was more critical of the statistical grounding, urging a broader test set: “Now re run this with 100 occurrences, not 5 during up only.” For traders, Bittel’s post effectively combines a tactical signal with a regime call: the RSI sub-30 template may map the rebound path, but only “assuming the bull market isn’t already over,” and only in a world where, as he put it, “the balance of probabilities” favors a cycle that “extends well into 2026.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,330. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered an extreme oversold phase, with momentum indicators dropping to levels that historically signal market exhaustion and a trend reversal. Researchers tracking macro conditions and long-term price behavior say that the current drawdown reflects a reset in positioning, not the end of the bull market. Based on past recovery patterns, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could soon forge a path toward a new all-time high.  Bitcoin Enters Extreme Oversold Territory  Thomas Lee, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Fundstrat Capital, has flagged Bitcoin’s latest market condition as a key technical development. He pointed to data from Bittel Julien, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, which highlights how deeply oversold Bitcoin has become within the current cycle and the cryptocurrency’s potential to reach a new ATH.  Related Reading: Why This Week Could Be Transformational For The XRP Price In his post on X, Lee publicly commended Julien’s analysis, emphasizing that historically extreme oversold conditions in BTC have often been followed by meaningful bounces. Julien, who also shared his report on X this Wednesday, explained that his analysis responds to frequent requests for updates on a long-running market model that tracks Bitcoin’s behavior following major momentum breakdowns.  According to him, the model examines BTC’s average price path after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 30, a level widely considered to indicate extreme oversold conditions. The analyst stated that Bitcoin’s recent price action has closely followed technical historical patterns, provided the broader bull market structure remains intact.  The accompanying chart compares current Bitcoin price behavior with the average historical trajectory observed after the last five instances in which the cryptocurrency entered oversold territory. The point at which RSI declines below 30 is marked as “time zero.” In previous cycles, this moment typically followed a period of stabilization and a strong upward recovery over the following weeks and months. Based on historical averages, Julien sees a potential path toward new all-time highs if Bitcoin continues to track past recovery patterns. While the market researcher cautions that the chart is not perfect, he argues that it remains a useful analytical framework, particularly if the four-year cycle thesis continues to play out.   BTC Cycle Could Extend Into 2026 As 4-Year Pattern Breaks  Julien’s analysis also suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle could extend well into 2026 and challenge the relevance of the traditional four-year cycle thesis. According to the market researcher, the BTC cycle has never been driven by halving events, contrary to what the broader crypto community believes. Instead, he stated that the cycle is fueled by public debt refinancing, which was delayed by a year after COVID.  Related Reading: Private Investment Firm Shares Why XRP Is Their Leading Investment He highlighted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is now officially broken due to an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure. He also noted that liquidity conditions and ongoing interest expense monetization, which far exceed GDP growth, support a prolonged cycle.  Furthermore, Julien emphasized that Bitcoin’s price bases usually take time to form and often include periods of volatility before a significant upward move occurs. The market researcher explained that his analysis was not a signal of an immediate market decline but rather a framework that assumes the bull market is still firmly in place.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The idea that Bitcoin’s halving operates on a fixed four-year timetable has become one of the most oversimplified narratives in the crypto markets. While the halving still reduces new supply, its influence is no longer confined to predictable timelines or uniform outcomes. As BTC matures into a globally traded asset, the forces shaping its market behavior have expanded beyond the event. How The Cycle Narrative Became Oversimplified In an X post, an analyst known as Deg_ape revealed that the Bitcoin halving cycle was never a rigid four-year clock. BTC’s cycle has always been about phase transitions, shifting liquidity conditions, and market behavior, but never about buying every four years and selling four years later. This cycle actually maps macro bear phases that expand, contract, overlap, and stretch based on macro flows and positioning.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details The four-year cycle still exists, but it is not a linear process. Deg_ape explains that BTC halvings act as a structural anchor, not a price guarantee. This is why market tops usually arrive later than most expect and why bear markets last longer than people can tolerate. Trying to time the BTC market cycle without understanding that these phase dynamics can lead to expensive mistakes. Kyle Chassé has pointed out that Bitcoin dipped, and traders stopped watching the printer, which is a big mistake. This is the most dangerous divergence in the market as price is down, but liquidity is vertical. While traders were panicking and selling their slips, the US Treasury and the Fed quietly injected around $130 billion of fresh liquidity into the system.  This shows that liquidity would lead the price, but it won’t do it instantly. There’s a big lag as liquidity will flood the market first, then the assets will reprice. However, a red candle on a green liquidity chart isn’t a crash, but a mispricing. While the printer is screaming up, the price chart is whispering down. Why Retail Holders Are Capitulating At A Historic Rate A crypto analyst known as OnChainCollege outlined that retail holders are under pressure. On-chain data shows the deepest 30-day balance decline among retail wallets since 2018, a level typically associated with periods of extreme fear and capitulation. While retail balances are falling sharply, larger holder cohorts are quietly absorbing the difference.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Exhaustion? BTC Whales Close Long Positions After Extreme Upside Bets The market sentiment has split into two groups with polar-opposite perspectives from retail that are reacting to price action against larger holders that are responding to structure, liquidity, and long-term positioning. In the meantime, the OG whales have continued to distribute throughout this bull market, but Mega whales and institutional participants are stepping in as the marginal buyers. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has entered a critical make-or-break phase as price clings to key weekly support while momentum continues to fade. Despite holding above a major confluence zone, repeated rejections overhead suggest buyers are losing control. With macro pressure building and liquidity levels still untested, the next move from here could define whether BTC stabilizes or slides into a deeper reset. Lower-Timeframe Rejection Keeps The Downtrend In Control Crypto analyst Michael Van De Poppe revealed in a recent post that Bitcoin has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance level. This failure signals that the short-term downtrend remains intact on lower timeframes, confirming that selling pressure currently outweighs buying momentum in the immediate term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details To flip this short-term bias, Van de Poppe expects a clear breakout above the $88,000 level. A successful move above this mark would serve as a strong, unequivocal signal to the markets that the corrective phase is over and that upward momentum is likely to take hold from that point forward. If buyers fail to achieve this necessary breakout, it remains highly probable that the price will pursue liquidity targets below, specifically targeting a test at $83,000 for liquidity. Should that fail, a further descent to the $80,000 level will trigger stop-losses. Finally, Van De Poppe connected the technical outlook to the broader economic environment. Given the high volume of macroeconomic events scheduled to take place over the course of the week, such as FOMC, Poppe believes that the market could experience significant volatility and end up reaching one of the predicted downside liquidity tests. $93,000 Rejection Stalls Momentum, but Weekly Structure Still Intact According to a weekly chart update by Crypto Damus, Bitcoin recently faced a firm rejection at the $93,000 resistance level. Despite that setback, price action remains constructive for now, with BTC holding above the crucial $86,000 weekly support zone. This area is reinforced with the key 100-week moving average confluence, making it an important level to watch in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Potential 60% Decline As Expert Warns Of ‘Major Bull Trap’ That said, the broader structure still leaves room for deeper downside. Crypto Damus notes that a full retracement toward the rising wedge breakdown target cannot be ruled out, which aligns closely with the April low around the $78,000 region. A move into that zone would represent a more pronounced corrective phase within the larger cycle. Looking further ahead, a deeper bear-market-style retest may ultimately present a more attractive long-term opportunity. A revisit of the $70,000 level is highlighted as a potential high-conviction buying area, should the market extend its pullback. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has revealed the next Bitcoin price level he is looking to accumulate at in anticipation of a relief rally. Despite plans to buy BTC, the analyst indicated that he is still bearish on the flagship crypto in the long term, with a larger decline expected to unfold.  Analyst Reveals The Next Buy Level As Bitcoin Price Eyes Bounce In an X post, Doctor Profit stated that he is buying BTC around $86,000 as he looks to trade a short-term relief bounce. He reiterated that he sees the probability of the Bitcoin price revisiting the $97,000 to $107,000 region before the next major leg lower unfolds. The analyst added that this projected move is a 20% from the current region, which presents a good risk-reward trade with a tight stop loss.  Related Reading: Analyst Shares Full Technical Bitcoin Price Breakdown – Here’s The Target Doctor Profit is known to have predicted the Bitcoin price top when it was trading at around $126,000. The analyst noted that he remains very bearish in the long term, expecting further declines. As such, he plans to play this move to buy BTC with absolute and the highest form of risk management.  The analyst explained that this means he will ensure to place the stop loss at entry once in solid profit, while his short trade from between $115,000 and $125,000 will still be running. Doctor Profit further remarked that this long setup for the Bitcoin price is aimed at a few weeks only, before the bearish price action resumes with lower targets.  BTC Remains “Extremely Unstable And Bearish” Doctor Profit stated that the Bitcoin price remains extremely unstable and bearish for the mid-term, noting that a strong downside continuation can happen at any moment, even before the flagship crypto reaches the projected $97,000 to $107,000 zone. The analyst added that a deeper and faster sell-off is absolutely possible, so those looking to buy now should take extreme caution.  Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Still Hit $140,000? What The Global M2 Money Supply Says Doctor Profit reiterated that his short positions remain fully open, as any upside is treated as distribution and liquidity for the next leg down. The analyst noted that the $70,000 region remains the main target. If the Bitcoin price manages to revisit the $97,000 to $107,000 region, he stated that he would fully take profit again on the position and add the profits to his short position.  In the meantime, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned that the Bitcoin price needs to hold the $87,000 region or risk dropping to as low as $70,000. BTC is currently on the edge with Japan set to raise its interest rates this week.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $86,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com