THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continue to struggle, with BTC dropping to as low as $70,000 over the weekend. This comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, with no sign of a ceasefire happening anytime soon.  Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Struggle as Iran War Drags On Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain under pressure as the war in Iran enters its third week. Tensions escalated over the weekend with attacks on the U.S. embassy in Iraq, according to a Fortune report. The U.S. embassy had indicated that these attacks were carried out by Iran-aligned terrorist ‌militia groups.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Far From Over? Analyst Shares How Painful Bear Markets Can Get Notably, the attacks on the U.S. embassy came amid America’s airstrikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil terminal for the country. The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices notably fell following the U.S. strikes on the Island. The strikes sparked concerns that it could further drive oil prices higher, which is bearish for BTC and ETH.  Brent crude oil futures have already risen to as high as $106 today, according to TradingView data, in response to U.S. strikes on Kharg Island. Oil prices could also continue to rise as the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, remains effectively closed. About 20% of the global oil supply passes through the Strait, which is why its closure could spark a massive supply shock and lead to new highs.  Market analyst XWIN Research warned that Bitcoin could face significant outflows if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which would put pressure on not just BTC but the Ethereum price and other crypto assets. In an interview on ABC’s ‘This Week,’ U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that there are no guarantees that oil prices would fall in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are also facing pressure, with the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. There are also concerns that the FOMC could further delay in cutting rates due to the rising oil prices, which threaten to drive inflation higher.   Peter Brandt Predicts That A Rally May Be On The Cards Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin could see a relief rally even amid the U.S.-Iran war. In an X post, he shared an accompanying chart showing BTC could reach as high as $88,000. BTC and the Ethereum prices may already be seeing this relief rally, with these crypto assets up over 3% and 7%, respectively, today.  Related Reading: Ethereum Topples Bitcoin By 3x In Major Metric, But Can Price Still Reclaim $5,000? Crypto analyst Julio Moreno had earlier warned that the crypto market is still in a bear market despite any potential relief rallies for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Expert Benjamin Cowen echoed a similar sentiment, noting that BTC often spends more time going up than down. He added that when the flagship crypto goes down, it goes down very quickly, sets a low, and then trends up for a week before going lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Veteran trader Peter Brandt sparked a fresh round of chart debate around Bitcoin after posting a chart and writing, “The Banana is splitting. This is a Horn. Richard W. Schabacker wrote about this in his 1934 book.” For market participants used to Brandt’s shorthand, the message pointed to a possible shift in how he is reading BTC’s recent recovery structure. The chart Brandt shared shows Bitcoin on the daily timeframe rebounding from a sharp February washout into the low-$60,000s and climbing back toward the low-$70,000s. The posted candle data showed BTC closing at $72,813.62 on the day, with an intraday high of $73,210.95. Around that rebound, Brandt drew two widening curved boundaries, creating the outline of what he called a “horn.” ‘Banana/Horn’ Could Send Bitcoin Into Mid-$80Ks What makes the post puzzling is that “banana” is not a standard textbook label in the way flag, wedge or triangle are. In context, Brandt appears to be using it descriptively: the recovery arc looks rounded and elongated, and his comment that “the Banana is splitting” suggests that the smooth curve is beginning to open outward into a broader, more unstable formation. That is where the “horn” reference comes in. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Bottom In? MVRV Z-Score Says ‘Not Yet’ In classical chart language, a horn pattern is best understood as a broadening structure, one where the price path does not tighten but expands. Brandt’s reference to Richard W. Schabacker matters because Schabacker’s pre-war technical analysis work sits near the foundation of modern classical charting. By invoking a 1934 text, Brandt was framing the setup as old-school chart geometry rather than a crypto-native meme or a one-off joke. The catch is that Brandt himself did not present the pattern as settled. When one user replied, “Dude pick one. Horn or flag,” Brandt answered: “Could be either. Sorry you cannot handle flexibility.” That response is important. It suggests he is not yet making a hard categorical call between a more conventional continuation flag and a widening horn-type formation. Instead, he appears to be highlighting that the structure is in transition and that real-time pattern recognition is rarely as clean as retrospective textbook examples. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners’ AI Shift May Create New Overhang, Lekker Capital CIO Warns Read that way, the tweet is less a precise forecast than a warning about market character. A flag would usually imply a more orderly pause within trend. A horn, by contrast, implies widening swings and a less controlled advance. On Brandt’s chart, Bitcoin is pushing through the upper half of the formation, but the drawn boundaries flare outward as price moves to the right, which visually supports the idea that volatility could expand rather than compress. As for price target, Brandt did not annotate a measured move, so any projection has to be treated as approximate. The most reasonable read from the image is not a fixed breakout target but a path target along the horn itself. The upper curved boundary rises from around the mid-$70,000 area in mid-March toward roughly $83,000 to $88,000 by early April, while the lower boundary also trends sharply higher. If Bitcoin continues to track the upper side of the pattern, the chart appears to point toward the low- to mid-$80,000s as the next visible zone. At press time, BTC traded at $73,186. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price has not particularly impressed over the past two weeks, but it appears to have steadied its movement within a clear consolidation range. In its latest attempt to shine, the premier cryptocurrency faced fierce resistance around $74,000 on Friday, March 13.  Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the $74,000 resistance might not be the barrier it appears to be. According to a prominent crypto analyst on the social media platform X, the Bitcoin price seems to have a free runway to return to above the $80,000 mark. BTC Price Has Free Runway To $82,000: Analyst Market pundit Ali Martinez took to the X platform to share an on-chain insight into the Bitcoin price movement over the coming weeks, with a return to around $82,000 looking more likely with no obstacles. This on-chain observation is based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which shows the next relevant levels for BTC. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Loads Up $152M In ETH In Three Days — How Much More Will He Buy? The URPD metric shows how critical a price level is by tracking the volume of cryptocurrency purchased at a specific level. This is because the capacity for a Bitcoin price level to function as a support or resistance zone usually depends on the number of BTC investors who have their cost basis at the given level. Typically, price levels below the current spot value with substantial buying activity are often considered major support regions. Meanwhile, levels above the current price with significant investor cost bases usually function as major resistance areas. According to Martinez, the Bitcoin price has entered a low-resistance region, with barely any obstacles in its way until around $82,045. This puts into question the rejection recently faced around the $74,000 mark, which has insignificant investor activity per the UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric. A move to this next major on-chain resistance would mean an over 17% surge from the current price point, with an upward movement of that magnitude not seen so far this year. However, if the Bitcoin price doesn’t find the bullish momentum necessary to spur a rally toward the $82,000 mark, the next major support cushion sits at around $66,898. Ultimately, it appears that Bitcoin price might be looking to expand its consolidation range, with $82,000 as the potential upper boundary. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,820, reflecting a mere 0.5% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by more than 3% in the past seven days. Related Reading: Charles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin recently pushed into a key liquidity pocket near the $73,000 level, briefly tapping overhead liquidity before encountering a sharp reaction to the downside. With structure still holding and buyers stepping in on dips, attention is now shifting to whether this positioning phase could set the stage for a stronger push toward the $80,000 region. Upper Liquidity Sweep Before Sharp Rejection Near $74,000 According to the latest MMT Heatmap update from Columbus, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge into the upper liquidity pocket during the overnight session. The price climbed aggressively to the $73,000 mark, testing the strength of overhead supply. However, this momentum was met with a sharp corrective reaction as it approached a substantial liquidity cluster situated near $74,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Clusters Become Clearer, And Traders Are Leaning Long On BTC This specific price action is characterised by a market that is probing for liquidity without establishing immediate value acceptance. Here, there is a sweep, followed by investors building positions; a standard market mechanism where high-interest zones are cleared out before the market gathers the necessary structure to sustain a more permanent move higher. Currently, Bitcoin remains in a rotation phase as it attempts to solidify a reclaim above its previous channel resistance. This transition period is vital for converting old resistance into support, providing the technical foundation required for the next leg of the bull cycle. The broader outlook remains cautiously optimistic, provided that buyer demand is resilient and does not fade anytime soon. As long as bids continue to rebuild aggressively on every minor dip, the underlying market structure maintains its bullish bias. Bitcoin Tests Historic Weekly Support–Resistance Zone Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows that the price is currently negotiating one of its strongest support and resistance zones, a level that dates back to the week of March 11, 2024. Market action around such historically significant areas often determines the next major directional move, as both buyers and sellers tend to defend their positions aggressively. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims Ground, Can Bulls Flip Market Momentum? Crypto analyst Christopher Inks notes that momentum indicators still leave plenty of room for further upside. Both the weekly RSI and the Stochastic RSI remain far from overheated territory, suggesting that Bitcoin could still extend its move higher and potentially push into the $80,000 region if bullish momentum continues to build. Christopher Inks has also emphasized throughout the year that a strong, impulsive weekly candle breaking and closing above the yearly pivot at $96,071.25 would be a major signal for the market. Such a move would confirm that the cycle low is already in place and could open the path for Bitcoin to advance toward a new all-time high. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto pundit Crypto Bully has shared his base case for Bitcoin and what to expect before the flagship crypto rallies above $100,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to hold above the $70,000 resistance amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.  Analyst Shares Base Case For Bitcoin In an X post, Crypto Bully stated that the path and exact levels of Bitcoin are not important in the long run, aside from immediate support and resistance levels. The analyst shared key points, including the observation that downside retests have not worked for a while. He pointed to the $85,000 level, which he noted is the logical lower high from the previous value generated before a further collapse due to extensive selling.  Related Reading: The Bitcoin Game Plan That Shows How To Navigate BTC Below $100,000 However, the analyst suggested that the downtrend is not over, noting that bear market bottoms take months, not weeks. His accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could still drop to $50,000. In the short term, he predicted that the flagship crypto could drop to $65,000. As for the bullish outlook for BTC, Crypto Bully stated that a break above the current level near $72,000 could easily spark a rally towards $85,000. He explained that a Bitcoin rally to $85,000 is possible, given the strength the flagship crypto has shown amid the ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The analyst added that the aggressive inflows into the BTC ETFs have not disappeared during this period. SoSoValue data shows that the Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $767 million this week.  Crypto Bull said the best DCA strategy is to buy Bitcoin whenever it drops from $65,000 down to $50,000. He revealed that his current spot buying average is around $67,000.  BTC Is Not Yet At A Bottom A CryptoQuant analysis noted that the Bitcoin bottom is “not quite” in. The analysis revealed that, despite BTC’s resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions, on-chain data indicate the leading crypto is in a critical “stress test” phase. It added that the bottoming process could take a long while, with institutions being the primary investors in this cycle.  Related Reading: Has Bitcoin Price Bottomed Yet? Analyst Says We’re Not There Yet The analysis also highlighted two paths to a Bottom for Bitcoin. The first path is a potential Black Swan that could trigger a crash, forcing liquidations and wiping out high-cost “new money.” CryptoQuant noted that this is the fastest route to a solid floor, which could form between one and two months.  The second path is longer and involves a scenario in which Bitcoin trades sideways between $60,000 and $80,000 for a year, allowing new money to grow into long-term holder status. Under this path, the bear market could extend to late 2026 or early 2027.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) made a notable recovery on Friday, witnessing a 4% surge that led the leading cryptocurrency to retest the critical $74,000 resistance level, which has remained unbroken for the past month.  However, even with this upward movement, the cryptocurrency has retraced to approximately $72,215, establishing itself at the upper boundary of its ongoing consolidation range. Further Declines For Bitcoin Ahead? Analyst Sunny Mom from CryptoQuant emphasizes that, despite these recoveries, Bitcoin has yet to establish a definitive bottom. She suggests that further price declines may be ahead, as current on-chain data reveals that the market is in a significant “stress test” phase.  Diving into the data, Sunny identifies several key factors that indicate the challenges ahead for Bitcoin. First, she points to the 6-12 month cohort of investors, who are currently underwater due to their Realized Price (RP) being concentrated around $100,000.  This means that many of these mid-term holders are seeing losses, which could continue to exert downward pressure on prices until this imbalance resolves.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Sunny also highlights the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which stands at 1.2. This figure is commonly regarded as a “DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) zone” for “smart money.” However, substantial cyclical bottoms typically require the MVRV to be less than 1.0, indicating a state of capitulation.  Furthermore, the importance of long-term holders (LTHs) cannot be overstated. A sustainable price floor generally requires that LTHs—those who have held their positions for over two years—constitute more than 20% of the Realized Cap.  Currently, they make up only about 15%, suggesting that the market lacks the robust structural support needed for a strong recovery. She outlines two potential paths for how Bitcoin could find its bottom.  Two Potential Paths To Find A True Bottom The first involves a “Black Swan” event—a sudden crash that triggers forced liquidations among high-cost investors. Although painful, Sunny believes this scenario could lead to a faster establishment of a solid Bitcoin price floor, potentially within one to two months.  The second path, referred to as “The Great Boring,” envisions institutions maintaining their positions, allowing Bitcoin to trade in the $60,000 to $80,000 range for an extended period.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance The analyst asserts that this would enable new investments to mature into long-term holdings, setting the stage for a bottoming process that could extend into late 2026 or early 2027. While the market may be at a “Value Bottom” conducive to long-term dollar-cost averaging, Sunny’s analysis suggests that a true “Structural Bottom” for Bitcoin has yet to form. Consequently, she noted that volatility within the $60,000 to $70,000 range is anticipated.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson argues on X that collapsing mining economics, combined with a growing shift by public miners toward AI and high-performance compute, could turn corporate BTC treasuries into a fresh source of market supply. “A large underappreciated headwind for Bitcoin is the disaster that which is mining economics. The only way this heals is through a decline in hashrate, which is being spearheaded by the AI compute first movers like CORZ, WULF, CIFR, IREN, etc.,” Thompson wrote. The chart Thompson shared, frames the problem visually. It shows aggregate bitcoin holdings across major listed miners climbing sharply through 2024 and 2025 before rolling over in 2026. Thompson’s argument is not that the AI pivot is bearish in structural terms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone On the contrary, lower hashrate and less uneconomic competition could improve mining industry health over time. His point is that the transition itself is expensive, and that capex-heavy AI buildouts may force miners to liquidate BTC that had previously been treated as strategic treasury. “While helpful to long-term health and sustainability of the network economics, it presents a dilemma for prices in the near-term as Bitcoin miners hold almost 80,000 Bitcoin on their balance sheets. As these companies pivot away from BTC mining, they 1) need capital to fund the AI buildout capex requirements and 2) have no reason to hold any BTC on their balance sheet (not that they should have before either),” he argued. Bitcoin Miners Pivot To AI The 2025 filings and public data make that argument more concrete. Core Scientific’s fourth-quarter results showed the business mix tilting away from mining and toward AI-related infrastructure: self-mining revenue fell to $42.2 million from $79.9 million a year earlier, while colocation revenue rose to $31.3 million from $8.5 million. Management said the decline in hosted mining reflected the “continued strategic shift” to high-density colocation. For full-year 2025, Core generated $402.5 million of proceeds from selling digital assets and ended the year with 2,537 BTC on its balance sheet. TeraWulf offers an even cleaner read-through. The company said that in 2025 it “solidified HPC hosting as its primary growth engine,” signed more than $12.8 billion in long-term customer contracts, and built a platform with 522 critical IT megawatts under contract. Yet the legacy mining business was still being monetized as that buildout took shape: fourth-quarter digital asset revenue was $26.1 million, versus $9.7 million in HPC lease revenue, and the company’s year-end digital asset rollforward shows 1,496 BTC mined, 1,500 BTC disposed of, and only 3 BTC left on the balance sheet at Dec. 31, 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Still Fall Under $10,000, Bloomberg’s McGlone Warns Cipher and IREN show two other versions of the same trend. Cipher said it increased its focus on HPC in 2025 and signed two HPC tenants for a combined 600 MW of data center capacity. It also sold bitcoin for approximately $214.7 million during the year. By year-end, Cipher had classified $94.9 million of Black Pearl mining rigs as held for sale after signing a sublease to transition the site to an HPC tenant. IREN, by contrast, has already taken the treasury issue largely off the table: with roughly 99,900 GPUs installed or on order as of Dec. 31, 2025, it said it “typically liquidate[s] all the Bitcoin we mine daily” and therefore held no bitcoin on its balance sheet at year-end. MARA matters for a different reason. It is not yet as far along as Core, TeraWulf, Cipher or IREN in converting mining sites into a full AI/HPC business, though it had deployed its first ten AI racks at Granbury by November 2025 and later announced a Starwood partnership for AI and HPC infrastructure. But MARA is the treasury heavyweight in the group, and its own 2025 disclosures moved in Thompson’s direction: the company said it began selling bitcoin in the second half of 2025, sold about 4,076 BTC for $413.1 million during the year, and still ended 2025 with roughly 53,822 BTC. That is the tension in Thompson’s thesis. A miner-led shift into AI can reduce hashrate pressure and improve the long-run economics of bitcoin mining. But the bridge from mining to AI is capital-intensive, and the 2025 filings show that bridge is already being funded with BTC sales, miner disposals and site conversions. For bitcoin, that means an industry adjustment that may be constructive later can still look like overhang now. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $72,322. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A crypto analyst is calling for a $40,000 Bitcoin price surge within 60 days, and the macro environment may be building the case for exactly that. Bitcoin is still pushing around $70,000, and many traders are watching closely after weeks of volatility across global markets.  Bitcoin Will Have Its Turn Very Soon One market participant known as ₿ariksis suggested that the Bitcoin price could surge from $70,000 to $110,000 within the next 60 days if the current macro and technical conditions are set up well.  Related Reading: Has Bitcoin Price Bottomed Yet? Analyst Says We’re Not There Yet The prediction from ₿ariksis is built on rotation across major assets. Gold, silver, and oil have delivered strong upward moves in recent weeks. Gold, silver, and oil have already recorded strong moves in recent weeks.  Both gold and silver have been pushing to new all-time highs in recent months, but Bitcoin has lagged behind. Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, which is another type of rapid rally that can unfold across markets. Bitcoin is already known for how fast things can change, and this serves as a reminder that the leading cryptocurrency could be next in line for a fast repricing. A move from $70,000 to $110,000 in 60 days would require a gain of about 57%. This is obviously volatile, but not outside Bitcoin’s historical character once momentum and liquidity line up.  Bitcoin Is Already Winning The Battle Of Relative Strength The case for Bitcoin’s resilience was sharpened further by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who shared a normalized comparative chart tracking Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 from February 28. Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted Bitcoin’s Recovery Will End Badly, But What’s Next? According to the chart shared by Hayes, Bitcoin has outperformed gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the US-Iran war started on February 28. Bitcoin’s line pushes above both gold and the Nasdaq over the period in the normalized performance chart, even as the oil and gas price spikes created the kind of macro conditions that usually punish risk assets. Bitcoin gained approximately 7% over the measured period, while gold declined roughly 2% and the Nasdaq 100 edged down 0.5%. “Relative to similar type large risky assets, $BTC did the best when viewed against oil and gas energy price spikes,” Hayes noted. There is also a second layer to this story: institutional conviction has not disappeared during the turbulence. For instance, Strategy recently disclosed that it acquired another 17,994 BTC for about $1.28 billion, bringing its total holdings to 738,731 BTC. The technical side of the bullish case shows Bitcoin’s price action is now touching a rising diagonal support that connects major cycle bottoms from 2018, 2020, 2022, and now 2026. The newest touch is marked near the mid-$60,000 area, almost exactly where Bitcoin has been trying to stabilize. Each prior interaction with that trendline came near important cycle lows, and each was followed by a major recovery phase. According to a crypto analyst that goes by the name Vivek San, Bitcoin rallied 450% the last time this setup appeared. The projection by the analyst points to a return above $100,000, then sketches a possible extension above $240,000 into 2027. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout.  However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase. Bitcoin Recovery In Sight?  Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month.  Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis.  When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend. Potential Upside Emerges The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000. Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin and crypto exchanges built much of the cryptocurrency industry’s reputation by challenging traditional finance. However, as major Wall Street institutions deepen their involvement in crypto services, the structure of the market could begin to change in ways that place pressure on both exchanges and the broader ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin. Why Bitcoin And Crypto Exchanges Could Face Pressure Recent industry commentary highlights how large financial institutions are gradually positioning themselves to compete directly with crypto exchanges. Among them, Morgan Stanley has been expanding its digital asset capabilities, moving beyond simple exposure products toward services such as crypto trading, custody, and staking. The development signals a broader shift in which traditional finance is no longer observing the crypto sector from the sidelines. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Needs To Flow Through Ripple For XRP Price To Reach $3,700 One key factor behind this shift is infrastructure. In the early years of the industry, building a crypto trading platform required specialized blockchain engineering, complex wallet systems, and custom liquidity networks. That barrier created a protective moat for early exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. Today, however, specialized infrastructure providers, including Fireblocks, Copper, Talos, and Zero Hash, allow financial institutions to integrate crypto trading systems far more quickly. With these tools, banks can launch digital asset services in just months. Distribution power further strengthens this advantage. If crypto trading becomes integrated into existing brokerage dashboards alongside equities and bonds, clients may access digital assets without leaving their primary investment accounts. In that scenario, exchanges would no longer be the default destination for crypto trading. Capital efficiency is another area where traditional institutions excel. Unlike exchanges, which operate as isolated platforms for digital assets, banks can offer multi-asset trading environments where stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, derivatives, and cryptocurrencies exist within the same account. This structure allows investors to move collateral across markets and execute complex strategies without transferring funds between separate platforms. Crypto Exchanges Face A Strategic Crossroads Another pressure point lies in pricing. Many crypto exchanges rely heavily on transaction fees as their primary revenue stream. Large financial institutions, by contrast, operate diversified business models that include lending, asset management, advisory services, custody, and prime brokerage. Because of these multiple revenue channels, banks could reduce trading costs significantly, potentially compressing the fee structures that exchanges depend on. Related Reading: Dogecoin Descending Channel Shows Where It Is In This Cycle Institutional trust also plays a role in shaping where large investors choose to trade. Established financial firms like Morgan Stanley have decades of regulatory infrastructure and longstanding client relationships. For institutions already managing capital through those firms, conducting crypto transactions within the same framework may appear more straightforward than onboarding to an entirely separate exchange. Analysts note that liquidity often follows institutional capital. Morgan Stanley’s $9 trillion asset base alone dwarfs the assets held on many crypto trading platforms. If even a fraction of that capital begins flowing through bank-operated crypto desks, trading activity could gradually shift away from traditional exchanges. For the crypto sector, this shift is prompting a strategic reassessment, as competition could increasingly favor traditional financial institutions entering digital asset markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin has moved into a historically attractive accumulation area, but not yet the kind of deep-discount zone that defined the best buying opportunities of prior cycles. In his view, the setup is constructive for long-term holders, though still lacking the confirmation needed to call a durable bottom. Speaking with Crypto Consulting Institute’s Joe Shew, Edwards framed Bitcoin as “closer to the bottom than the top,” with multiple on-chain metrics pointing to value even as price action remains damaged. He stopped short, however, of calling the current range a standout opportunity. “Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it’s close to the bottom than the top,” Edwards said. “Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it’s not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we’ve seen in prior cycles.” That distinction matters. Edwards said Capriole still holds a small net long Bitcoin position, but the levels that would make him “super excited” sit lower, around the production-cost band between roughly $50,000 and $60,000, with the low-to-mid $50,000s standing out as particularly attractive. Historically, he said, Bitcoin has spent months in that zone during major cycle lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone For investors with a multi-year horizon, Edwards argued that some exposure still makes sense. But he cautioned that value alone is not enough. “As with any asset, equities, anything, you can be in a value zone for a long time,” he said. What is missing, in his telling, is a convincing signal of renewed strength through either a deeper capitulation, a technical breakout, or more durable evidence of demand. Bitcoin Institutional Flows Improving, But Not Decisive One of the clearest positives in Edwards’ framework is institutional buying. He described net purchases from U.S. spot ETFs and roughly 200 treasury companies as one of the most important Bitcoin metrics today, especially when those inflows exceed daily mined supply. “If it’s net positive, especially if it’s above the amount of Bitcoin it’s mined per day, so it’s greater than the organic supply, then that is really positive,” he said. “We’ve seen all the major price appreciation when that’s net positive.” Still, he noted that most of those buyers remain underwater. According to Edwards, about 80% of ETFs and treasury vehicles are currently below cost basis, reinforcing what he called “typical bear market vibes.” A more meaningful signal, he said, would be strong flows holding for a week or two while Bitcoin stays above the $70,000 area, with a weekly close above roughly $71,500 acting as a line in the sand for a more bullish short-term outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Still Fall Under $10,000, Bloomberg’s McGlone Warns Even then, he warned that a rally into the mid-$70,000s or low $80,000s would not necessarily end the broader bearish structure. Quantum Risk Remains The Overhang The biggest reason Edwards is unwilling to get more aggressive is quantum computing risk, which he said is capping Bitcoin’s upside in a way previous cycles never had. He argued the market has already priced in much of that concern, but until Bitcoin Core developers begin treating it as a serious priority, upside may remain constrained. “I honestly think we may not see new all-time highs until it’s addressed by the core team,” Edwards said. “The opportunity is actually skewed to the upside in that as soon as you get two or three or four core developers to start talking about it openly about solving it, I think we can get significant repricing to the upside.” That leaves Bitcoin in an unusual position. Edwards sees a macro backdrop that should favor hard assets, with strong liquidity conditions and gold in a long-term outperformance regime against equities. Under normal circumstances, he suggested, that would be a supportive environment for Bitcoin too. For now, though, he sees a market in value territory rather than true deep value, promising, but not yet compelling. At press time, BTC traded at $71,466. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year’s US midterm elections.  New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500. Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?  The research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years.  Binance’s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500—marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.  Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years. The research emphasizes what they call “The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly.  The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well.  If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles.  With Bitcoin’s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached.  Is The End Of The Bear Market Near? NewsBTC reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on February 6. Related Reading: White House Crypto Advisor Denounces Attempts To Sabotage CLARITY Act’s Goals Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path. With this pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Leshka has explained why it is unlikely that the Bitcoin price has bottomed even as it continues to attempt a recovery above $70,000. His analysis also aligns with predictions from analysts such as Doctor Profit, who predict that BTC could still drop to $40,000.  Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Bottomed In an X post, Leshka noted that the Bitcoin price has never bottomed after a drawdown of just 47%. He further remarked that every bear market in history saw at least 78% drawdown from the top. BTC notably saw drawdowns of around 87%; 84%; and 73% in 2013, 2017, and 2021, respectively.  Related Reading: Pundit Reveals Why Bitcoin Is Headed For Another Crash To $42,000 As such, the analyst declared that the Bitcoin price is not yet at a bottom and that another flush to the downside is approaching. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could still drop to around $50,000 before it finds a macro bottom in this market cycle. Leshka noted that the leading crypto continues to retest the $72,000 resistance and has failed to hold above it on every attempt. Based on this, he predicted that a drop to $55,000 is next.  Crypto analyst Doctor Profit also recently warned that the Bitcoin price hasn’t found a macro bottom, though he predicted that BTC could form a local bottom between $57,000 and $60,000. In the long term, he still expects Bitcoin to drop below $50,000 and into the low $40,000, which he believes will mark the macro bottom.  Doctor Profit stated that the leading crypto could find a bottom between September and October later this year. In the meantime, he predicts that the Bitcoin price could see a relief bounce or continue trading sideways before recording another leg to the downside.  BTC Is In The ‘Relief Rally’ Phase In an X post, crypto analyst Julio Moreno noted that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has reached 30, its highest level since late October. The index phase has switched from extra bearish to bearish while bull flags have turned on for exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity growth, and price momentum. However, he warned that the Bitcoin price is still in a bear market and is simply seeing a relief rally.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Candlestick Structure That Led To Crash To Below $20,000 Last Cycle Just Appeared Again Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that in bear markets, the Bitcoin price will often spend more time going up than going down. However, when it goes down, it drops very quickly, then sets a low, then trends back up for a few weeks to months before dropping again. “You can see the change in market structure from bull to bear,” he added.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said bitcoin could still fall back toward and potentially below the $10,000 area, arguing that crypto remains trapped in a broader macro unwind tied to deflationary pressure, overstretched risk assets and what he described as excess across the digital-asset complex. Speaking in an interview with EllioTrades, McGlone reiterated a call he first revived when bitcoin was above $100,000: that the market could again “lop off a zero.” This time, he framed the thesis less as a pure crypto-cycle forecast and more as a macro view on what happens when speculative assets begin to roll over together. The Thesis For $10,000 Bitcoin McGlone’s core argument was that bitcoin is no longer trading as a detached alternative asset. In his telling, it has been absorbed into the same cross-asset risk regime as equities, commodities and broader liquidity conditions. “Bitcoin was one in 2009 and now there’s 37 million cryptocurrencies,” he said. “Bitcoin was one. So limited supply. But this space led the way up in risk assets… Now they’re leading the way lower.” Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Says He Wouldn’t Buy Bitcoin Yet: Wait For This He tied that view to what he sees as a post-inflation deflationary phase, with bond markets, not crypto, likely to be the next relative winners. McGlone said the sharp move in energy, metals and crypto volatility has not yet fully spilled into equities, but expects that to change. His base case is that stock-market volatility rises materially from still-subdued levels, triggering a deeper correction in both equities and digital assets. That, in turn, underpins his bitcoin target. McGlone said he is not identifying $10,000 as a precise cycle low so much as the most important long-duration trading zone in the asset’s history from 2019-2020. “If you look at the highest most widely traded price in Bitcoin since 2020, maybe even going out to 2019, it’s 10,000 or lower and has a history of fluctuating around 10,000,” he said. “So my premise is we’re going back to that level.” The strategist was especially blunt about the rest of the sector. He argued that stablecoins are the only clear structural winners inside crypto because they “track something physical,” namely the dollar and Treasury-based collateral. Everything else, he suggested, depends largely on speculative belief. He pointed to the massive growth of Tether and broader crypto-dollar supply as evidence that the base layer of the ecosystem is increasing dollar demand, not appreciation in volatile tokens. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Sandwiched’ Between Two Key Zones As Price Tops $71,000 – Major Move Ahead? McGlone also said the speculative excess of 2024 and 2025, amplified by memecoins, ETFs and post-election enthusiasm around Donald Trump, may have marked a durable top for the broader asset class. “The bottom line is these risk assets have to prove me wrong,” he said. “Otherwise, I see us navigating and riding a bear market in equities, a bull market in volatility that’s barely getting started.” EllioTrades pushed back on both the magnitude of the bitcoin call and the idea that crypto is effectively “dead,” arguing that Bitcoin could still reassert itself as a debasement hedge and that stablecoin-based agentic commerce, privacy use cases and a post-washout class of surviving projects could support a future recovery. He also argued that, while many tokens may still go to zero, the surviving tokens of the market may follow a familiar purge-and-rebirth pattern seen in earlier cycles. McGlone did not rule out that crypto eventually finds a bottom. But his message was that the market is not there yet. For now, he said, bitcoin and the wider complex are still behaving like risk assets in a bear phase and until equities correct more meaningfully and stay down for a while, rallies should be treated with caution rather than as proof that the cycle has turned. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $69,890. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most frustrating phase in the cycle.”  According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin finds itself in a period characterized by heightened uncertainty, with market signals indicating more hesitation than firm conviction. Bear Market Signals Three key on-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase for market participants, specifically Apparent Demand, the CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, and the Long-Term Holder SOPR. Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion After the most recent sell-off, Apparent Demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting that opportunistic buyers were stepping in to capitalize on the recent price drop. However, this uptick was short-lived, quickly retreating to negative territory.  Moreno also emphasized the absence of persistent buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he believes shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices. The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment, as it currently signals a phase typically associated with bear market consolidation.  Moreover, the analyst noted that the behavioral dynamics at play can influence the cost bases of various market cohorts. He asserts that as short-term holders realize losses or transition to longer-term holders, the realized prices of Bitcoin can decline.  Lastly, the Long-Term Holder SOPR metric is beginning to show that even seasoned investors are starting to realize losses, dropping below the crucial threshold of 1. Historically, this tends to arise in the later stages of bear markets when extended uncertainty erodes even the staunchest beliefs in the asset’s value.  Bitcoin Eyes $72,000–$73,000 Resistance Level In the context of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, outperforming gold and traditional stocks during the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.  Crypto stocks have also benefited, given their ability to be traded at any hour, unhindered by banking schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:  Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an edge for the asset class. When the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, crypto-native markets were the only venue open for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate. Additionally, Bitcoin has seen a positive uptick of about 4% following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war may be winding down. Trump stated, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran has “nothing left in a military sense.” Related Reading: XRP Price Outlook: Analyst Foresees New All-Time Highs Above $40 In 2026 While attempting to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin is also seeking to break through its recent local high in the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone, which was unsuccessfully tested last week.  Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold with significant volume could shift the narrative from a mere short squeeze to a genuine momentum recovery. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The security architecture surrounding Bitcoin continues to evolve as new infrastructure emerges to support self-custody and advanced on-chain protections. A notable step in this direction is the integration between Babylon Labs and Ledger. By combining Babylon’s protocol-level vault system with Ledger’s hardware wallet security, the collaboration seeks to strengthen how users store, manage, and interact with BTC in decentralized environments. How Babylon And Ledger Aim To Strengthen Bitcoin Self-Custody The Babylon platform is expanding access to Trustless Bitcoin Vaults through a new integration with Ledger. According to the Babylon Labs post on X, once the integration goes live in the second half of the year, users will be able to authorize BTCVault transactions directly from a ledger device using clear signing. This will allow 8 million Ledger users to review and approve vault operations on a secure hardware screen. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Data Identifies Unusual Market Cap Behavior – Details These Trustless BTC Vaults are anchored directly on the BTC base layer and enable external applications to verify that BTC collateral remains locked in place while enforcing predefined collateralization conditions. This vault architecture utilizes cryptographic mechanisms to execute rules, such as unlocking funds or triggering a liquidation event, rather than relying on discretionary control. By combining Babylon’s vault architecture with Ledger’s secure signing infrastructure, BTCVault workflows can connect with the hardware security that many BTC holders already rely on for self-custody. As part of the broader rollout, Ledger devices will also support Babylon’s native asset, BABY, on Ledger devices. A Familiar Pattern Emerges In Bitcoin’s Orderbook Data As noted by Crypto analyst Ardi, the latest order book data is showing a pattern that has appeared at key moments in the market before. Currently, asks on Bitcoin have climbed to a two-month high, with roughly $1.57 billion in sell-side liquidity stacked above the current price compared with about $1.125 billion in bids below. This shift indicates around 40% more supply than demand within 5% of the market price. Related Reading: No Rebound For Bitcoin Yet — Short-Term BTC Holders Continue Holding At A Loss Ardi pointed out that the last time the asks reached a similar high level was during the retest that followed the $98,000 fakeout in January. In that case, BTC briefly broke above the fakeout range, price re-entered it, and then retested the level while the sell-side liquidity accumulated heavily above the retest price. Now, the BTC market structure appears to be retesting after the $72,000 fakeout, with orderbook data showing a similar signature. In this setup, bids below the price act as a support cushion, while asks above the price form a resistance wall. When Asks liquidity spikes to multi-month highs during a retest, it suggests that participants are using price rebounds as opportunities to sell into strength. However, Ardi cautions that orderbook liquidity can be removed at any time, and the recurring pattern of elevated asks during post-fakeout retests has shown a specific track record on this chart. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes is still structurally bullish on Bitcoin. He just does not think now is the moment to buy. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast on March 10, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO said he would stay patient until a more familiar macro catalyst arrives: central bank liquidity. In Hayes’ telling, a prolonged Iran war and the credit stress that could follow from AI-driven economic disruption may ultimately force the Federal Reserve back into money printing, and that, rather than the conflict itself, is the signal he is waiting for. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said near the end of the interview. “I think that the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine and that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.” That distinction mattered throughout the conversation. Hayes pushed back on the idea that war is automatically bullish for Bitcoin, arguing that the real transmission mechanism is liquidity expansion. “If you’re saying, ‘Okay, war is good for Bitcoin,’ what you’re really saying is war means money printing. Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “So wait for the money printing. Don’t try to time it because you could get it wrong.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Bets Surge—Will Bears Get Squeezed? Arthur Hayes Sees More Bitcoin Pain Ahead The argument fits a broader framework Hayes laid out across the interview: Bitcoin is less a clean debasement trade than a “liquidity alarm,” one that is already reacting to tightening conditions, credit stress and a lack of fresh dollar creation. He tied that view to the rise of AI, which he said could accelerate white-collar job losses, pressure private credit and banking exposures, and force markets to price in a much sharper economic break than many currently expect. “I think it’s going to happen faster than people think just because of the exponential nature of how fast AI is improving,” Hayes said. “It only takes 10 to 20% [job displacement]. And then the leverage in the banking system will do the rest. At some point the market goes, ‘Oh, this is worth zero.’” In that scenario, he said, the market’s recognition of the problem could come well before the full economic damage is visible in the data. Regional banks, private credit and broader financial equities could reprice violently, with deposit flight and emergency Fed support following close behind. That is the moment Hayes sees as far more constructive for Bitcoin than the current backdrop. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stabilizes, But Glassnode Warns Spot Demand Is Still Weak Still, his near-term caution did not extend to Bitcoin’s long-run role. Hayes described himself as “structurally very very long” crypto and argued that the case for non-state money is stronger now than it was at Bitcoin’s launch. He also warned against shaping the industry around institutional preferences, saying crypto should not reduce itself to a more complicated version of traditional finance. “Bitcoin got from zero to whatever $66,000 whatever the price is today with no government support, unclear regulations, hostile banking infrastructure and regulators,” Hayes said. “So why are we bending over backwards to try to gain acceptance from these folks who don’t have our best interest at heart?” He was equally dismissive of conspiracy-driven explanations for weak market performance, including claims that market makers are deliberately suppressing Bitcoin’s price. More often, he said, losses come down to poor positioning, bad timing or leverage used by traders who are not equipped for crypto’s pace. For investors frustrated that Bitcoin has not delivered instant life-changing returns, Hayes’ answer was blunt: adjust expectations. “The market’s job is not to make you money. The market’s job is to take your money,” he said, arguing that long-term compounding still matters far more than trying to force a six-month windfall. At press time, BTC traded at $69,538. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has provided insights into what to expect from the Bitcoin price after it dropped below $70,000 over the weekend. This comes as the leading crypto continues to face pressure due to the U.S.-Iran war and volatile oil prices.  What To Expect From The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Doctor Profit said that he expects the Bitcoin price to move sideways between $57,000 and $87,000. The analyst noted that this sideways price action is not bullish but a preparation for what is coming in the next few months for the leading crypto. He predicts that BTC could drop to between $50,000 and $44,000 in the coming months.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Repeating 2022 Playbook That Triggered Crash To $17,500 Doctor Profit also noted that the Bitcoin price is mirroring the 2022 price action, when BTC fell 52% from its all-time high (ATH) before rising 44% from its low, then falling again. As such, the leading crypto is expected to follow the same fractal and rally to the upside in the coming months, then drop below $60,000.  The analyst said that market psychology supports a relief bounce, as the fear and greed index is currently at an extreme level of fear. As such, the Bitcoin price could move in the opposite direction, with many expecting a decline. Doctor Profit added that before the next leg down, the market needs to create additional liquidity in the downside and take the liquidity that was built to the upside.  The Bitcoin price, however, continues to face huge resistance at the $70,000 level, negating any sustained rally. BTC also faces pressure amid the Iran war, which continues to make oil prices volatile. The leading crypto had climbed to as high as $71,000 yesterday but sharply dropped below $70,000 following reports that Iran was moving to deploy Naval mines at the Strait of Hormuz.  Another Local Bottom Could Form Between $57,000 and $60,000 Doctor Profit said he considers $57,000 to $60,000 the local bottom but not the macro bottom, and expects this area to be tested multiple times. The analyst described this range as where it makes sense to buy. He also believes that there is no reason to sell at the moment because upside potential remains.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be Shrinking, But Are We Watching History Repeating Itself? Doctor Profit said that the largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower between the $50,000 level and into the low $40,000. This is where the analyst plans to re-enter the market with “serious size” ahead of the next bull cycle. This is also the area he expects the Bitcoin price to form a macro bottom.  The analyst expects the Bitcoin price to drop to the $50,000 to $40,000 range between September and October later this year. In the meantime, he predicts that BTC will continue to see a “long and boring” sideways price action.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick says Bitcoin could still face a final washout to $50,000 before recovering sharply, arguing that the current drawdown looks more like a macro-led tech capitulation than a crypto-specific breakdown. Speaking on Deribit’s Crypto Options Unplugged, Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said he still expects Bitcoin to end the year at $100,000 and reach $500,000 by 2030, even as he warned that the near-term setup remains fragile. “Picking the bottom is always extremely difficult,” Kendrick said, framing the recent selloff as mostly orderly outside a few volatile weeks. He argued that institutional positioning has held up better than many expected, pointing to relatively sticky ETF exposure and continued buying from MicroStrategy even after the stock’s premium to net asset value fell below one. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory Still, Kendrick said the market may not be done deleveraging. “I suspect we could still see that final capitulation. Now, it could be macro driven,” he said. “Bitcoin and crypto assets more broadly is still very highly correlated with the Nasdaq.” In his view, weaker earnings from large US tech names over the next few months, combined with a lack of immediate Federal Reserve support, could drag crypto lower alongside equities. That, he said, is what makes the $50,000 level plausible. Kendrick compared the potential move with prior cycle drawdowns, noting that a decline to that zone would still be shallower than the roughly 75% peak-to-trough drop seen in the previous cycle. The key difference this time, he argued, is the absence so far of a major internal crypto failure on the scale of FTX. Why Kendrick Is Long-Term Bullish On Bitcoin Even so, Kendrick’s medium- and long-term thesis remains emphatically bullish. He tied that outlook less to short-term trading flows than to what he sees as a structural shift driven by stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Last year, when stablecoins stood around $200 billion, Kendrick projected they could grow to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. He said the market is now closer to $300 billion, with much of that demand coming not from crypto trading but from savings use cases in emerging markets. “What’s replaced it has primarily been savings in emerging markets,” Kendrick said, referring to stablecoins’ original role as on-off ramps for crypto trading. “On my estimate of the $300 billion, about $200 [billion] is for EM savings use case.” He added that much of that capital appears to sit in large wallets and turns over infrequently, suggesting it is being used more as stored value than transactional float. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Shows Early Capitulation—But Not Full Bottom Yet Kendrick’s broader argument is that this trend could have macro consequences well beyond crypto. If stablecoin issuers absorb close to $1 trillion in additional T-bill demand over the next three years, he said, the US Treasury may respond by shifting issuance toward the front end, flattening the yield curve and reinforcing dollar demand. In his telling, that liquidity effect could eventually become a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. “I think we go down to, let’s say, $50,000 and back to $100,000 by the end of this year and $500,000 by 2030,” Kendrick said. “Ironically, if stablecoins are massive and Genius Act is as it is, the inflow of cash on liquidity and flattening yield curve and all that sort of stuff becomes massively supportive of Bitcoin medium term.” He extended that optimism across other large-cap crypto assets. Kendrick said he sees Ethereum reaching $40,000 and Solana hitting $2,000 by 2030, with Ethereum benefiting from stablecoin and tokenization activity and Solana from ultra-low-cost transaction flows and micropayments. He also projected tokenized real-world assets could grow from roughly $40 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. For now, though, Kendrick’s message was less about chasing momentum than about separating market price from underlying adoption. “Pretty much all the underlying metrics, if you like, have been improving,” he said. “Except for the price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,260. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has climbed back to the top of its current trading range, placing the market at a critical decision point. While a breakout could open the door to further upside, analysts warn that failure to push higher may trigger a sharp rejection. If selling pressure emerges at these highs, Bitcoin could rotate back toward the key support level around $62,800. A Return To The Top Of Its Trading Range Bitcoin moves to its range highs, prompting analyst Lennaert Snyder to issue a cautious update regarding current market conditions. Snyder highlights his trading strategy: avoiding long positions at the top of a range. Since the most logical and high-probability buying opportunities are found at the range lows, entering a long at these elevated levels presents an unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio. Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed Instead of chasing the upward momentum, the current technical setup suggests that a shorting scenario is much more compelling. Snyder is currently tracking three potential paths for today’s price action, each focusing on how Bitcoin reacts to overhead resistance. If Bitcoin begins to drop from its current position and loses the critical market structure level at $69,383, it would signal a shift in momentum. In this case, Snyder intends to enter a short position, targeting the “weak lows” situated around $65,280. Furthermore, there is buy-side liquidity still resting above the current price at $71,200 and $72,846. If Bitcoin pushes higher to “sweep” these pools and trap breakout buyers, Snyder will wait for a bearish Market Structure Break (MSB) to confirm the move. This confirmation would then serve as the entry point to short the asset back down toward the same $65,280 target. Bitcoin Touches Exact Range High At $70,500 In a recent technical update, crypto analyst Zord highlighted that Bitcoin has accurately tapped the Range High at approximately $70,500, a level previously identified in his last market analysis. This precise touch confirms the current range boundaries, placing the asset at a critical inflection point where the next major directional move will likely be decided. Related Reading: Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash The potential for a bullish expansion remains on the table, with Zord noting that a successful breakout from this resistance could finally propel BTC toward a new all-time high or a sweep of the $74,000 level. However, the analyst cautioned that despite the proximity to these highs, a definitive breakout has not yet materialized. Conversely, the risk of a rejection at this overhead resistance carries significant downside implications. If BTC fails to sustain its momentum here, Zord anticipates an immediate retracement back through the Range Mid, ultimately targeting the Range Low situated at $62,800. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing technical warning signs that have caught the attention of market watchers, with one analyst now predicting a dramatic price collapse in the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The analyst noted that a Bitcoin candlestick pattern that previously preceded a devastating crash to below $20,000 has reappeared on the weekly chart, reigniting fears that history may be repeating itself. If it does, it could completely rewrite the narrative of this entire market cycle.  Historical Setup Signals Bitcoin Potential Crash To $19,000 Market analyst Tony Severino has issued a stark warning to Bitcoin investors and holders, sharing a technical analysis on X that draws a chilling comparison between current price action and a previous cycle crash. The analyst has projected that Bitcoin could decline as low as $19,000 in this bear market.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin $200,000 Target Remains Open, But There’s A More Realistic Target The chart shared by Severino places two Bitcoin weekly candlestick patterns side by side, revealing a near-identical structural setup between the current market cycle and a previous bear phase. The left panel shows Bitcoin’s recent trajectory from late 2025 to early 2026, while the right panel displays a historical period that ultimately saw prices collapse below $20,000.  Severino expressed his surprise at the chart patterns, noting that it was “absolutely wild” how similar the candlestick structures are between the two periods. He added that even the technical indicators are “almost exactly the same.”  Both chart panels feature a prominent rectangular consolidation zone followed by a pink-highlighted rebound area. The visual symmetry between the two timeframes underpins the analyst’s bearish thesis, suggesting that the current rebound around the pink zone could be short-lived, followed by a potential crash below $19,000 if historical trends repeat.  Notably, the analyst’s bearish forecast drew skepticism from some members of the crypto community. One member argued that a drop to such levels would not simply represent a routine cycle correction, but the largest retracement in Bitcoin’s history. Severino, however, stood firmly on his analysis and forecast, stating that a 74% correction was entirely possible and even normal within Bitcoin’s historical framework. Not backing down, he insisted again that the market may still have significant downside to navigate before any meaningful bottom is established.   Update On BTC’s Price Action The Bitcoin price has recovered again from its previous level, trading back above $70,000. Last week, the cryptocurrency crashed to as low as $63,000 amid significant volatility and shifts in market sentiment.   Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed However, CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin has gained over 4.8% in the last 24 hours, with its daily trading volume up by more than 23.4%. The sudden price increase has been attributed to sustained inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin could be on track for a massive long-term rally if one of the most interesting valuation models in the crypto industry is still valid. According to pseudonymous analyst PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving cycle between 2024 and 2028.  The bold projection comes even as Bitcoin is showing no signs of trading at that level in recent days, but recent price action in the past 24 hours has seen it reclaiming the $70,000 price level. Here’s When Bitcoin Will Reach $500,000 PlanB’s projection for Bitcoin is not that the cryptocurrency’s price action instantly jumps to $50,000, but that the entire post-halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around that level if the Stock-to-Flow framework continues to play out as predicted. That is a much more aggressive call than simply predicting a cycle top, because an average of $500,000 would imply that Bitcoin would eventually spend meaningful time well above that price level at some stage of the cycle.  Related Reading: Why Did Bitcoin Price Crash To $67,000, And Ethereum Price Fell Below $2,000? The current Bitcoin price setup is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued at today’s levels or whether the S2F model has finally broken down for good. The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this prediction of a $500,000 price tag for Bitcoin. It overlays Bitcoin’s price history with the 200-week moving average, realized cost price, RSI coloring, and a staircase-like Stock-to-Flow path. The dotted S2F path for the 2024-2028 halving window rises to around $500,000 in 2027. Bitcoin S2F Model. Source: Plan B On X What’s Going On With Bitcoin? Bitcoin has spent the past week swinging between recovery and pressure, a stretch that saw the asset trade above $73,000 on March 5 before falling back toward the mid-$60,000s and then rebounding again above $70,000 at the time of writing. That uncertain context of price action is what makes PlanB’s latest Stock-to-Flow price prediction stand out, because it takes strong conviction to predict an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Expert Trader Shows ‘Simple Math’ To Calculate The Bitcoin Price Bottom The recent price action places Bitcoin just above two long-watched structural supports: the realized cost price and the 200-week moving average. Both of these supports are also visible in PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model chart shared above. That does not automatically prove a six-figure or seven-figure breakout is next, but it does support the view that the entire cycle structure has not fully collapsed. As it stands, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses are holding at a loss, with the majority being short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury firms. However, many analysts have proposed that Bitcoin’s correction is yet to find a bottom, despite it being down by over 45% from its October 2025 peak.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Merlijn has revealed that Bitcoin has just re-entered the DCA zone, indicating it’s a good time to buy BTC. The leading crypto is already staging another rebound, rising to the psychological $70,000, which has so far proved to be a major resistance level.  Bitcoin Reenters DCA Zone As Price Eyes Another Rally In an X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has just entered the DCA zone on the rainbow chart and that BTC is now back in the DCA zone. He noted that a massive rally has followed every time this has happened. At the same time, this is when retail investors have panicked and sold. The analyst added that this chart has never been wrong.  Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed In another X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has reached a critical level, especially as it continues to trade within a tight range between $60,000 and $70,000. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could rally above $120,000 if it holds this support level. However, there is the possibility of a larger decline if it fails to hold this current range.  The analyst also revealed that Bitcoin is mirroring the 2021 top exactly with the same sequence, lower highs, and the same structure. He noted that 2021 ended with one final flush before the recovery. Merlijn said the $60,000 level is the last line of defense, and a hold above it would mean buyers are taking control. However, a drop below this level would put liquidity clusters below as the next targets.  Bitcoin saw a violent recovery following the final flush below, and the analyst is confident that this time won’t be different. Crypto analysts like Benjamin Cowen have predicted that BTC could recover by the second half of this year as part of the 4-year cycle.  Peter Brandt Predicts A Breakout For BTC Veteran trader Peter Brandt has predicted that Bitcoin could break out to the upside. In an X post, he said, alluding to BTC’s daily and weekly charts, that “the Big Banana is forming a Little Banana — and it indicates there is about to be a Banana Split.” His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could rally to $82,500 by April.  Related Reading: Samson Mow Calls Bitcoin ‘Exponential Gold’, Predicts What Will Happen In the long term, Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could rally to $120,000 and possibly $280,000. His prediction comes just days after he admitted that BTC may be in the midst of a bullish reversal. The veteran trader said that he viewed Bitcoin’s rally to $74,000 back then as potentially a significant change in price behavior since the October top last year.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,900, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of stabilization after its pullback from $74,000, but Glassnode says the recovery still lacks the ingredients of a decisive bullish turn. In its March 9 Weekly Market Pulse, the analytics firm described a market that is improving at the margins even as spot participation, capital flows and broader conviction remain subdued. Glassnode’s overview is cautiously constructive, but only up to a point. The firm wrote, “ETF activity remains a relative area of strength. Net inflows accelerated and trading volumes picked up.” In the same breath, though, it stressed that “overall, conditions are stabilizing” while “capital flows remain soft,” a framing that captures the report’s central tension: some internals are healing, but the market still looks fragile rather than fully re-energized. Glassnode Sees Bitcoin Market Stabilizing That fragility is most visible in spot markets. Glassnode said the 14-day RSI rose from 45.2 to 47.7, a modest improvement in momentum that points to firmer buyer activity without suggesting the move is overheated. But the more important spot signals moved the other way. Spot CVD fell from negative $84.4 million to negative $97.6 million, indicating heavier sell-side pressure from aggressive traders, while spot volume dropped from $9.8 billion to $9.1 billion. The report said participants are showing less urgency as they wait for stronger directional cues, leaving sellers with an outsized role in price discovery. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory Derivatives paint a more complicated picture. Futures open interest climbed 5.1% to $29.4 billion, showing leverage and speculative engagement are rebuilding, while perpetual CVD surged 201.7% to $172.6 million, a sign of aggressive buy-side activity in leveraged markets. At the same time, funding flipped sharply lower to negative $391.7K, falling below Glassnode’s statistical low band and signaling stronger demand for short exposure. In other words, leveraged traders are active again, but they are not aligned on direction. Options markets, by contrast, looked less defensive. Open interest rose from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, the volatility spread narrowed from negative 25.78% to negative 17.64%, and 25-delta skew fell from 16.51% to 11.72%. Glassnode’s interpretation was that fear is moderating and demand for downside protection is easing, leaving options positioning more balanced than it was a week earlier. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall To 2019 Levels As ETFs And Corporate Treasuries Accumulate The clearest area of strength remains the US spot ETF complex. Weekly net inflows rose from $776 million to $934 million, while trading volume jumped from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion. But even there, the signal is not cleanly bullish. ETF MVRV dropped from 1.07 to negative 0.53, pushing the average ETF holder underwater. Glassnode said that shift is “consistent with capitulation-like conditions,” suggesting institutional-style demand is still coming in even as existing positioning remains under stress. On-chain data tells a similar story of stabilization without renewed heat. Active addresses slipped 2.0% to 649.3K and fee volume fell 5.1% to $170.5K, both signs of a quieter network backdrop, even as transfer volume rose 23.7% to $5.9 billion. Realized cap change improved from negative 2.4% to negative 1.9%, suggesting outflows are easing, but hot capital share fell to 23.3% and remained well below the statistical low band. That points to a market still dominated by older capital, with little evidence yet of fresh speculative churn. Profitability metrics improved modestly, with supply in profit rising from 54.6% to 56.8%, NUPL improving from negative 31.9% to negative 26.7%, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio lifting from negative 0.8 to negative 0.7. That eases some of the pressure built up during the decline. Still, Glassnode’s broader message is hard to miss: Bitcoin’s market structure looks steadier than it did a week ago, but until spot demand returns in force, the rebound remains more tentative than convincing. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,755. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The 2022 Bitcoin crash has been one for the history books, where the price went from $69,000 to $16,000 before hitting a bottom. Being the most recent bear market before the current cycle, there have been a lot of comparisons between the current trend and the previous one. So far, while the Bitcoin price has tried to hold up against the bears, there have been similarities to the 2022 bear market cycle that could suggest a repeat of such a crash. The Similarities That Say Bitcoin Price Might Crash Further A pseudonymous crypto analyst who goes by the name Sherlock on X pointed out multiple similarities that have popped up on the Bitcoin price chart that could suggest a repeat of the 2022 cycle. The first of these was the weekly trendline break that happened after the initial wave of declines. Once this was broken, the floodgates were opened for the bears. Related Reading: Analysts Predict Conservative XRP Price If It Follows 2017 Run Next on the list is that Bitcoin has recorded multiple red weekly candles. Then came a relief bounce that led to consolidation in the middle of this trend, as shown by the most recent bounce toward $74,000. This green candle pushed the price toward the next resistance. However, bulls were ultimately rejected from this level, leading to an impulsive break below the trend low. The last of the events that took place on the chart is the formation of the upper wick candle. Once this was completed and the price was rejected from this level, the next breakdown saw the Bitcoin price crash from $30,000 to $17,500 before the next relief, a 40% price decline. Presently, the completion of the upper wick candle is the only thing left for the Bitcoin price. Sherlock confirms that the digital asset is actually printing the upper wick candle. If this completes, then it could lead to the same breakdown that was seen back in 2022. Related Reading: XRP Bull Flag Breakout After 8-Month Consolidation To Send Price To $11 A repeat of this 40% breakdown from the current level would put the Bitcoin price back into the $35,000 territory. Following through to the end of where the last bear market bottom was established, it would mean falling as low as $30,000 before the sellers are exhausted. Interestingly, though, this was the last leg down that led to the end of the 2022 bear market. In the next few months that followed, there was a rapid recovery, and in the year following the bottom, the Bitcoin price would go on to hit new all-time highs. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s rally back to the mid-$73,000 region did not last long as the leading cryptocurrency’s price action reversed as the week came to a close and fell back around $67,000 after momentarily regaining momentum last week, pulling Ethereum down with it till the ETH price also lost the $2,000 price level.  However, the pullback of these leading cryptocurrencies is the product of a few forces colliding at once: a war nobody fully priced in and institutions quietly heading for the exits. Here is what happened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: From Boosting Rally To Draining Liquidity One of the clearest reasons for Bitcoin’s reversal is that the same ETF complex that helped lift the price early in the week suddenly turned into a source of pressure. SoSoValue data show that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted strong inflows at the start of the week, including about $458.19 million on March 2, $225.15 million on March 3, and $461.77 million on March 4.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 That stretch helped Bitcoin climb as high as roughly $74,051 intraday on March 4, but the tone changed quickly after that. By March 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs had flipped to a net outflow of about $227.83 million, and on March 6, the outflow worsened to roughly $348.83 million, showing that institutional demand softened just as Bitcoin was testing resistance near the mid-$70,000s. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue Unsurprisingly, Ethereum also saw its own exchange-traded funds flows deteriorate in tandem with Bitcoin. SoSoValue’s data show US Spot Ethereum ETFs started the week on firmer footing, with $38.69 million in net inflows on March 2, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at about $26.51 million. However, by the second half of the week, that demand had faded massively.  Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded about $90.94 million in net outflows on March 5 and another $82.85 million in net outflows on March 6, with Fidelity’s FETH alone accounting for roughly $67.57 million of the March 6 withdrawal. Spot Ethereum ETFs. Source: SoSoValue Profit-Taking And Global Risk Aversion The final piece is the macro backdrop. The bounce to $73,000 to $74,000 invited short-term traders to lock in gains, especially after Bitcoin ran into a clear resistance band and failed to push through decisively. On-chain data shows that more than 27,000 BTC in profit were sent to exchanges by short-term holders within 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is However, investors are not dealing with only crypto-related concerns. Financial markets are still pricing in the conflicts in the Middle East. Iran responded to US-Israel attacks by not only firing retaliatory strikes but also effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That closure is what truly rattled markets. Once Bitcoin lost altitude, Ethereum followed with even more force. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,500. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading at $1,975. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto market analyst has outlined what he describes as a straightforward mathematical method that helped identify the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous bear market. By focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase. Simple Math That Identified The Bitcoin Price Bear Market Bottom In an X post shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited a prediction he made in December 2022 regarding Bitcoin’s bear market low. While he acknowledged that the timing of the call was slightly off by a few months, he stated that the price target itself proved accurate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Map Predicts The Next Targets To Watch Out For The analysis referenced Bitcoin’s bear market bottom around the $15,000 region in late 2022, which the analyst had previously projected using this framework. His approach centers on macro Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, with particular focus on the 1.618 Fibonacci level positioned near $62,084. The chart accompanying the explanation highlights how Bitcoin historically reacts to this macro level. During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and sustain price action above the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to the second and fourth quarter candles of 2021, both of which were rejected at that same zone. These repeated rejections signaled strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the significance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, the analyst argues that long-term Fibonacci mathematics can help identify both extreme lows and potential expansion targets. Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with the 1.618 Fibonacci level has shifted from resistance to support. After breaking above the $62,084 region on the quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close below the level since the breakout. The chart shows two notable retests following the move. In the second and third quarters afterward, Bitcoin briefly tested the level but managed to hold above it on a closing basis. One quarterly wick even dipped below $50,000 before reclaiming the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is again trading above the same macro Fibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a bullish quarterly retest. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The projection drawn on the chart extends toward the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2.618, which sits near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro target if the structure holds. The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting price wicks could stretch toward the $500,000 region during the expansion phase. However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly wicks remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with that caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation pattern centered on Bitcoin holding the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Coinvo has explained why Bitcoin may be close to a bottom, which could spark a rally to new highs. This comes as BTC continues to face downside pressure due to the rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.  Why Bitcoin May Soon Reach A Bear Market Bottom In an X post, Coinvo alluded to the Bitcoin monthly chart, noting that the leading crypto has hit its bear market at exactly 23 months after the all-time high (ATH) in every single cycle. BTC is currently sitting at 23 months right now, which the analyst noted is a sign to buy more Bitcoin, as this pattern has “never failed.” Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin $200,000 Target Remains Open, But There’s A More Realistic Target The analyst also predicted that Bitcoin could see a massive expansion once it bottoms, rallying to as high as $150,000. This means that BTC could still surpass its current ATH of $126,000, which it recorded in October last year. Meanwhile, in another X post, Coinvo revealed that Bitcoin is replicating the exact same bull market pattern that gold did in the 70s. He added that this pattern has never failed, suggesting BTC could soon see a bullish reversal.  Bitcoin is currently facing downside pressure as the U.S-Iran war continues to escalate. The war has sent oil prices as high as $115 today, sparking concerns that this could drive inflation higher. However, Coinvo indicated that the rising oil prices may not be bearish for BTC. In an X post, he stated that most people think that rising oil prices are bearish for the leading because of inflation, but history says the opposite. This came as he revealed that BTC’s secret bull-run signal has just flashed for the fourth time in history.  Bull Trap May Be Forming For BTC Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo warned that a bull trap is forming for Bitcoin, while also indicating that a bottom isn’t in yet. He stated that BTC is still “solidly” in the middle of its bear market through a lens of long-range liquidity. The analyst also noted that after rapid downward flushes like the market has seen, BTC tends to trade sideways and then mount a rally, testing resistance.  Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Willy Woo also revealed that current conditions are setting up a Bitcoin rally to test the mid-$80,000 range, which is the cost basis for short-term investors. This rally looks more likely, especially considering that BTC sold off fast in the early bear market. The analyst highlighted that investor flows have been in consistent recovery since mid-February, which could spark this rebound to $80,000. He added that expected volatility in equities is hinting at a switch to risk-on in the coming weeks.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. Darkfost is looking at the distribution of supply across Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs, a way of tracking how much coin supply is sitting above or below cost basis. In his reading, that metric has reached a zone that has historically marked the boundary between advancing bull markets and broader corrections. “Roughly one out of two investors is currently at a loss. More precisely, this refers to the supply held within each UTXO on Bitcoin. At the moment, 43% of that supply is in loss,” he wrote on X. He added that “historically, as the histogram shows, we usually see around 75% of the supply in profit,” describing that level as a “rough boundary between a bull trend and a market correction.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Must Not Drop Below $63,700, Analyst Warns That framing is central to the thesis. When the share of supply in profit rises back above roughly 75%, Darkfost said, bull trends have typically “confirmed and accelerated.” When more supply starts falling into loss, the opposite tends to happen: corrections deepen, confidence weakens and the market begins to resemble prior bear-market structures. With Bitcoin now at 57% supply in profit, he said conditions look “closer to those seen during deep bear market phases.” Still, he did not present the current setup as a one-way collapse. Darkfost said the market is showing signs of stabilization, which he linked to the current consolidation phase. But he also warned that the process may not be finished. “It is still possible that the market moves lower in order to shake out LTHs further and push the share of supply in loss toward around 45%, a level that has been reached during previous bear markets,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money On The Move: Exchange Whale Ratio Spikes To 0.6 Macro Backdrop Weighs On Bitcoin His second chart ties that on-chain deterioration to a macro backdrop that has become less supportive for risk assets. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, Darkfost argued, oil’s rally has added another layer of pressure to Bitcoin. “Since the beginning of the year, oil has gained more than 60%, a dramatic increase reflecting market concerns over the geopolitical situation,” he wrote. “This is not surprising, given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea. Any incident that blocks the strait or disrupts transit therefore has an immediate impact on oil prices.” He extended that argument beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices, he said, feed directly into inflation expectations and broader financial-market stress, a combination that has historically not favored speculative assets. “For a volatile and risky asset like Bitcoin, this type of environment is unfavorable,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases. These moments also signal geopolitical tensions, which are not conducive to risk-taking or exposure to more speculative assets.” Taken together, the two charts sketch a market that is not yet definitively in a bear trend but is drifting toward a zone where that label becomes harder to dismiss. The immediate question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild the share of supply back into profit and reclaim the historical 75% threshold, or whether macro stress and further long-term-holder selling push the market deeper into loss territory first. At press time, BTC traded at $67,730. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening momentum as it struggles to regain higher ground, placing the market at a critical turning point. The $66,000 level has now emerged as a key support zone that could determine the next major move. Holding above it may give bulls a chance to spark a recovery, while a decisive break below could open the door for a deeper decline. Bitcoin Struggles Below Blue Box Resistance As Buyers Stay Quiet Bitcoin continues to trade below the blue box resistance, signaling that the market has yet to regain strong bullish momentum. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, buyers failed to step in at the $69,407 level that had been closely monitored on the 4-hour timeframe. Although selling pressure pushed the price lower, the pace of the decline has started to slow in the current region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Uray explained that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $66,187 level, the possibility of another attempt toward the blue box resistance remains on the table. A decisive breakout above the $69,407 resistance, especially with strong high-volume candles, could open the door for a much larger upward move.  Based on the principle of equal waves, such a breakout scenario could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. A daily close above $98,200 would also establish a new high peak in the context of the latest wave structure on the daily chart, increasing the chances of a sustained uptrend. However, caution may be required if the price approaches the $107,000–$109,000 region, as a bearish Libra formation could develop within that zone. Failure to close above the previous peak could activate the pattern and trigger a renewed downward move. Meanwhile, the $66,187 level remains a key support to watch on the 4-hour chart. Holding above it would keep bullish expectations intact, while a close below it may lead to a retest of $62,433. If the decline deepens further and resistance levels continue to cap upward attempts, the next major support targets are $62,433, $55,230, and $47,256. BTC Loses $70,000 Support As Bearish Momentum Builds Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin was unable to maintain its position above the $70,000 level and eventually closed below it. Holding above that zone was previously highlighted as crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Failure to defend the $70,000 mark suggests that sellers have regained control of the market. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Timeline For When A New Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin This Year The analyst further explained that bearish pressure may continue unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and break above the $74,000 level. As long as the price remains below that threshold, momentum favors the downside, with a potential move toward the $61,000 region or even lower levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com