THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

In a recent interview with CNBC, Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, reiterated his bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), predicting the cryptocurrency could reach a staggering $200 trillion market cap.  Saylor Forecasts $10 Million Per Bitcoin Currently valued at about $2 trillion, Saylor believes Bitcoin’s trajectory will see it grow to $20 trillion and eventually hit the $200 trillion mark, translating to an approximate price of $10 million per BTC based on its capped supply of 21 million coins. Saylor attributes this potential growth to a global shift in capital investment, stating, “That capital is coming from overseas… from China, from Russia, from Europe, from Africa, from Asia, from the 20th century to the 21st century.”  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Breaks Out—10% Surge Sparks Bullish Momentum His forecast comes against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s recent announcement regarding the creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve, which would include BTC alongside Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), which ignited a heated debate within financial and crypto circles. While Saylor acknowledges the appeal of a Bitcoin-only reserve, he supports Trump’s broader strategy that encompasses multiple cryptocurrencies. He emphasized, “There’s no way to interpret this other than this is bullish for Bitcoin and is bullish for the entire US crypto industry.”  Although some conservatives, such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss, have advocated for more restrictive, Bitcoin-centric policies, Saylor noted that the president’s approach allows for a more inclusive economic policy. Saylor Dismisses Volatility Concerns  When asked about his involvement with the White House, Saylor confirmed he has been in discussions with various lawmakers, both Democratic and Republican, as well as members of the Cabinet and administration.  “For the last four and a half years, I’ve been talking about Bitcoin to anybody, anywhere in the world, every day,” Michael Saylor stated during his interview, highlighting his commitment to promoting the cryptocurrency. Saylor argues that establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve could provide the United States with significant economic advantages, including the potential to alleviate the national debt.  Saylor posits, “If the United States takes a position in the emerging crypto economy, if it buys up 10, 20% of the Bitcoin network, we’re going to pay off the national debt. And so why wouldn’t that be in the interest of the United States?” Related Reading: Dogecoin Will Start A Move To $4 If Current Demand Holds – Can Bulls Step In? Addressing concerns about Bitcoin’s notorious volatility, Saylor pointed to its historical long-term gains, asserting, “I don’t think anybody’s ever lost money in the Bitcoin network holding for four years. Presumably, you want to buy Bitcoin, you want to hold it for 100 years.” The proposal for a US Crypto Reserve is still in its infancy, and Saylor indicated that its success will depend heavily on legislative decisions made in the coming months.  “There are a dozen people on it: the head of the Treasury, the SEC, the CFTC, Commerce, the Attorney General, the President… both the Republicans and the Democrats,” he noted, emphasizing the diverse range of opinions that will influence the outcome. At the time of writing, BTC has found support at around $83,869 after posting losses of 7% and 6% over the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In his latest blog post, titled “KISS of Death,” former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes outlines a provocative thesis on the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader financial markets under the renewed presidency of Donald Trump. Hayes—who has long held bullish views on crypto—argues that a convergence of fiscal and monetary policies could catapult Bitcoin’s price to as high as $1 million during the Trump 2.0 era, but only after a period of recession-driven turmoil. Breaking Down Bitcoin’s “KISS Of Death” Hayes’s framework revolves around the “KISS” principle—Keep It Simple, Stupid—urging market participants to stay focused on the core driver of asset prices: liquidity. Rather than overreacting to sensational headlines, he contends that one should watch for shifts in the quantity and price of money (i.e., how much credit is created and at what interest rate). “One day, you buy and then quickly sell after digesting the next headline,” Hayes warns. “The market chops you in the process, and your stack quickly diminishes.” He recommends sticking to a simpler outlook: If the U.S. government prints significant amounts of money at lower rates, risk assets like Bitcoin can surge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Repeats Historic Pattern—Is a Breakout Toward $100K Next? A key premise of Hayes’s analysis is that President Trump, a “real estate showman” by background, will debt finance his “America First” agenda rather than embrace austerity. Hayes contrasts Trump with Andrew Mellon—Treasury Secretary under Herbert Hoover—who once allegedly declared: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system.” Hayes argues that such a stance would be political suicide for a president seeking to be viewed as the 21st-century Franklin D. Roosevelt rather than Hoover. As Hayes puts it, “Trump wants to be considered the greatest President ever” and is therefore inclined to loosen credit conditions rather than tighten them. Hayes highlights Trump’s unconventional maneuver to slash federal spending and potentially trigger a recession, thereby forcing the Federal Reserve to respond with rate cuts and fresh liquidity. The newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by high-profile entrepreneur Elon Musk, is portrayed as an aggressive effort to expose fraud and reduce waste in government programs. Hayes cites DOGE’s claims that Social Security payments may be going out to deceased individuals or unverified identities, supposedly costing hundreds of billions—or even a trillion—dollars a year. “Trump and DOGE are firing hundreds of thousands of government employees,” Hayes notes, referencing media reports citing elevated jobless claims in the Washington, D.C., area. By cutting federal budgets so drastically and so quickly, Trump could—in Hayes’s words—“cause a recession or convince the market that one is right around the corner.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Sellers Incur Loss As SOPR Drops To 0.95 – A Sign Of Market Bottom? Once signs of recession appear, Hayes predicts Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have little choice but to cut rates, end quantitative tightening (QT), and potentially restart quantitative easing (QE) to avert a widespread financial crisis. Powell, whom Hayes dubs a “turncoat traitor” (a reference to the Fed’s past rate cut during Kamala Harris’s campaign), is nonetheless bound by the Fed’s mandate to maintain economic stability. Hayes points to $2.08 trillion in US corporate debt and $10 trillion in US Treasury debt that must roll over in 2025. If the economy slows, rolling that debt over at high interest rates becomes unfeasible. In that scenario, the Fed’s only salvation is fresh money creation and lower rates. Hayes calculates that a full Fed response—encompassing several policy shifts—could result in as much as $2.74 to $3.24 trillion in new liquidity: Dropping the Federal Funds Rate from 4.25% to 0% could be equivalent to roughly $1.7 trillion of money printing, according to Hayes’s estimates. Currently, the Fed conducts $60 billion per month in QT. If QT ends by April 2025, Hayes sees a $540 billion liquidity injection relative to prior expectations. Additional Treasury purchases by the Fed or US commercial banks (the latter aided by a relaxation of the Supplemental Leverage Ratio) might add another $500 billion to $1 trillion in dollar credit. He compares this to the $4 trillion in stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that Bitcoin jumped roughly 24x from its 2020 lows to 2021 highs in response to that liquidity wave, Hayes says even a more conservative 10x multiple could be in play. “For those who ask how we get to $1 million in Bitcoin during the Trump presidency, this is how,” he proclaims, linking massive credit creation with a sharply higher BTC price. Despite his bullish long-term forecast, Hayes believes Bitcoin’s immediate outlook may be rocky. Hayes sees potential for Bitcoin to revisit the $70,000 to $80,000 range in the short-term—levels that are markedly above the prior cycle’s all-time high but still below the current market. “If Bitcoin leads the market on the downside, it will also do so on the upside,” Hayes writes, positing that BTC often bottoms out before traditional equities. He cites the significant run-up to $110,000 around mid-January (Trump’s inauguration timeline) followed by a pullback to $78,000 in late February. “Bitcoin is screaming that a liquidity crisis is nigh, even though the U.S. stock market indices are still near their all-time highs,” he notes. “I firmly believe we are still in a bull cycle, and as such, the bottom at worst will be the previous cycle’s all-time high of $70,000,” Hayes says, underscoring his conviction that any major dips are opportunities to accumulate rather than panic-sell. In Hayes’s view, the “Kiss of Death” is not about Bitcoin’s demise but about the outdated fiat system struggling to contain spiraling debt loads and political brinkmanship. He argues that the short-term chaos in traditional markets—triggered by DOGE-driven spending cuts and a hesitant Fed—will ultimately pave the way for a new round of monetary expansion. The bottom line? Hayes insists that staying focused on liquidity is the best strategy: “Let politicians do politician things, stay in your lane, and buy Bitcoin.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,725. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin surged past $95,000 during low-liquidity trading hours on Sunday after US President Donald Trump made a major announcement. The formation of a US Crypto Strategic Reserve, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), set the market ablaze with speculation. Many traders viewed this as a defining moment, one that could solidify crypto’s place in the U.S. financial system, while others remained wary, questioning whether the rally could sustain itself beyond the immediate reaction. Among those skeptical is QCP Capital. A Well-Timed Political Bitcoin Play? The timing of Trump’s announcement is difficult to ignore. Throughout the past week, risk assets faced mounting pressure as global markets reacted negatively to a series of economic and geopolitical developments. Trump’s newly imposed tariffs rattled investor confidence, while shaky Ukraine-Russia peace talks created additional uncertainty. Stock market volatility intensified, weighing heavily on sentiment across the financial sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Average Cost Basis At $90,950 — Why Is It Relevant? Bitcoin broke below its multi-month range, showing signs of weakness before Trump’s announcement. The sudden announcement was a stark contrast to the downward trajectory risk assets had been following. QCP Capital highlighted the political strategy behind the move: “For a president who thrives on being the market’s hero, last week’s risk asset performance performance was anything but inspiring. His slew of new tariffs and shakier than expected Ukraine-Russia peace talks rattled investor confidence. So, while the timing of the SBR was somewhat unexpected, the political calculus was clear — Trump needed a win before his approval ratings starts slipping, a metric he likely takes very personally.” However, questions remain as to whether this move represents a genuine shift in policy toward long-term crypto adoption or simply a well-timed announcement aimed at stabilizing sentiment before further economic strain emerges. While Bitcoin’s rapid ascent over the weekend excited traders, QCP Capital remains unconvinced that this rally represents a meaningful breakout. The firm pointed to several key market signals that indicate Bitcoin is not yet out of the woods. QCP Capital cautioned: “Are we back in the game? Not quite. BTC is still trading near the bottom of its multi-month range and frontend crypto vols are still relatively elevated with both majors still reflecting a Put Skew till end-March. The VIX is also elevated, signaling broader market unease in risk assets overall, particularly after the recent tariff escalations from the US administration.” Lessons From The Past: The ‘Xi Candle’ Comparison For seasoned traders, the weekend’s price action is reminiscent of a historical event in the crypto market—the infamous Xi Candle of 2019. Prominent crypto analyst Cold Blooded Shiller took to X to draw comparisons between the two events. Reflecting on the Xi Candle, Cold Blooded Shiller recalled how Bitcoin had been in a prolonged downtrend, trading at fresh lows with market sentiment at rock bottom. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China should embrace blockchain technology. The result was a massive short squeeze, with Bitcoin skyrocketing by 40% in just two days. Traders at the time believed it marked the beginning of a new bullish era for crypto. “Sentiment was very quick to adjust. You’ll be surprised (not) to hear that it didn’t take much back then to shape the whole mindset of Twitter into the positives and ability for the market to now have an infinite bid,” he wrote. However, the euphoria was short-lived. Several weeks later, China backtracked on its pro-blockchain rhetoric, implementing fresh crackdowns on crypto exchanges and warning investors about the risks of digital assets. Bitcoin’s gains slowly eroded, with price action reversing over the following month and ultimately dipping below pre-announcement levels. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Cycle Really Over? This Indicator Suggests Price Could Rebound To $130,000 “We did not immediately reverse the candle. It actually took many weeks to do that, which made it all the more painful for those trading it or those who had their bullish bias,” Cold Blooded Shiller recalled. The similarities between the Xi Candle and Trump’s Crypto Reserve announcement are striking. Both events followed prolonged periods of market weakness, both saw a dramatic shift in sentiment almost overnight, and both created a new bullish narrative that was widely embraced by the market. The key question now is whether Trump’s announcement will lead to a sustained trend shift or if, like the Xi Candle, it will eventually fizzle out, leaving late buyers trapped at the top. Key Events To Watch This Week Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its gains or extend higher will likely depend on key macroeconomic and regulatory developments in the coming days. On Wednesday, markets will receive the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, a crucial economic indicator that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If PMI data shows signs of economic weakness, it could increase speculation about potential rate cuts, which may provide a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the view that the Fed will maintain its restrictive policy stance, potentially pressuring crypto and equities alike. Friday brings the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key employment indicator that has historically influenced market sentiment. A strong jobs report could signal continued economic resilience, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, which could negatively impact Bitcoin. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report could fuel risk-on sentiment, further supporting BTC’s momentum. Also on Friday, the White House Crypto Summit is expected to provide critical insights into the future of the US Crypto Strategic Reserve. If tangible announcements emerge, BTC could rise further. However, if the event fails to deliver meaningful policy direction, the market could react negatively, leading to increased volatility. As QCP Capital put it, “Just when we think Trump has exhausted his cards, he may still have more surprises up his sleeve. Will this be the push toward that elusive all-time high? We’ll be watching.” At press time, BTC traded at $90,352. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After a week of notable crashes, Bitcoin has again seen life breathed into its price trajectory and has reclaimed its mark above $90,000. The major primer for the return of bullish momentum was the announcement of a US crypto strategic reserve by President Donald Trump over the weekend, which could be the beginning of an extended rally for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. With the return of bullish momentum, veteran financial analyst Peter Brandt listed six reasons Bitcoin has flipped bullish. Peter Brandt Lists Six Reasons Bitcoin Has Turned Bullish Bitcoin has seen its value rise by approximately 9% in the past 24 hours, adding about $166 billion to its market capitalization. This marks a swift change from the decline last week, which saw Bitcoin declining to fill a CME gap below $80,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Enters Ascending Phase After Cup And Handle Formation At $105,000, Here’s The Next Target Renowned for his deep technical expertise, Peter Brandt took to social media to outline six reasons why Bitcoin has now returned to a bullish trajectory. His observations are rooted on a series of technical developments that have unfolded over the past week.  Brandt’s first key point is Bitcoin’s recent 30% correction. Notably, Bitcoin’s recent crash to a bottom at $78,900 marked a 30% correction from its January 30 all-time high of $108,786. This level of pullback is typical in strong bull markets and often precedes the next leg up. The second reason why Bitcoin has flipped bullish is its ability to find support along its parabolic advance despite the recent dip. Another factor reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish outlook is the successful retest of a CME futures gap below $80,000. Interestingly, this gap had been a key concern even as Bitcoin rallied to above $100,000 in January, with technical analysis warning of a drop toward this level. Now that the CME gap has been filled, the next step is the resumption of bullish momentum. Brandt also highlighted the emergence of a “foot shot doji” candlestick pattern, which typically indicates the exhaustion of selling pressure and a potential reversal. Furthermore, he referenced the Factor three-day trailing stop rule to indicate that Bitcoin is regaining strength. Lastly, he pointed to a high-volume “puke out,” where sellers have exited Bitcoin in capitulation. Taken together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin’s latest rally is not just a temporary bounce but a confirmation of bullish momentum.  What’s Next For BTC As Bullish Signals Strengthen? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,443 and everything surrounding its fundamentals now points to a continued move upwards in the coming weeks. Interestingly, you could argue that institutional invesments through Spot Bitcoin ETFs have yet to be factored into the price of Bitcoin following Trump’s announcement of a US crypto strategic reserve.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Crash: Analyst Paints Picture Of Drop Below $30,000 The announcement came over the weekend when traditional markets were closed, meaning the bullish momentum was largely driven by retail traders. With this, Bitcoin is likely to push past the $100,000 mark again before the end of the week as institutional inflows pick up. Featured image from iStock, chart from Trsdingview.com

Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto has revealed that Bitcoin’s open interest has crashed to a six-month low. The analyst further explained what happened the last time this low open interest occurred while providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto.  Bitcoin’s Open Interest Crashes To 6-Month Low  In an X post, CrediBULL Crypto revealed that Bitcoin’s open interest is at the lowest levels it has been at in six months. He noted that the BTC price was trading between $50,000 and $60,000 the last time the open interest was this low. The analyst also revealed that Bitcoin’s funding rate just ticked negative. He also noted that the same thing happened while the flagship crypto was trading between $50,000 and $60,000 just before its rally to $100,000.  Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Who Correctly Called The Bitcoin Price Surge From $15,400 To $100,000 Reveals What’s Next Interestingly, CrediBULL Crypto asserted that these metrics overall look “fantastic” for Bitcoin and further solidified his belief that the flagship crypto has formed a bottom. Indeed, BTC looks to have formed a bottom as the flagship crypto has rebounded to as high as $95,000 following its drop below $80,000 last week. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also suggested that the Bitcoin price has found its bottom. In an X post, he noted that historically, BTC tends to rebound when the daily Relative Strength Index drops below 30. He then revealed that the RSI was sitting at 24, indicating that the flagship crypto had bottomed out and was well due for a rebound.   BTC Needs To Hold Above This Range To Confirm Reversal However, despite Bitcoin’s rebound to as high as $95,000, CrediBULL Crypto suggested that market participants shouldn’t get too excited yet. He stated that the pump doesn’t mean much unless BTC clears the key resistance at around $93,000. The analyst remarked that moving up to this range was the easy part but “strength” is getting past it.  Related Reading: Bitcoin $166,000 Target Still In Play? The Extension That Determines Where Price Goes Next Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto also echoed a similar sentiment. He stated that Bitcoin is currently pushing through $94,000, breaking above the Kumo cloud. The analyst added that the flagship crypto needs to stay above this price level before the reversal can be confirmed.  However, Titan of Crypto still provided a bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price, suggesting that a reintegration might be about to occur, which could send the flagship crypto into a markup phase. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could rally above $126,000 as it enters this markup phase.  Meanwhile, Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin bull run remains intact according to the aSORP indicator. He also stated that global liquidity is on the rise again, and with BTC lagging behind this metric, the analyst remarked that this could signal a unique buying opportunity.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $91,000, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

A new Bitcoin Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap has just been opened around $78,000 and $80,700. Analysts warn that this price range could act as a magnet for further downturns in the Bitcoin price, making it a critical area to watch in the coming days. According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital on X (formerly Twitter), Bitcoin is currently facing increased volatility as it moves closer to filling a key CME gap between $78,000 and $80,700. A CME gap represents price disparities on the Bitcoin Futures chart traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Open Bitcoin CME Gap Signal Further Downturn  Typically, the CME Bitcoin Futures market operates only on weekdays, meaning price movements that occur during weekends tend to leave price gaps. These spaces get filled as price action retraces to cover the imbalances left behind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidity Blocks Tell A Story: Here’s Why $96,000-$111,000 Is Most Important Bitcoin’s current CME gap between $78,000 and $80,700 was formed in early November 2024, when the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp price breakout above resistance. Since then, Bitcoin has not revisited this zone; however, Rekt Capital believes it is fast approaching it now.  The analyst revealed that after hitting a peak above $100,000, Bitcoin quickly retraced, experiencing a deep correction that pushed it down to its current price of $79,267. Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin’s recent decline aligns with historical fractals where CME gaps get filled before its price finds a new direction.  According to his chart analysis, if Bitcoin continues on its current downward trajectory, the price range between $78,000 and $80,000 will need to be closely monitored. Holding this range would signal a potential reversal and renewed bullish momentum. However, a failure to maintain support could clear to further declines, with the next major support levels around $71,535 and $60,590. Other market analysts share a similar sentiment. Crypto VIP Signal on X has projected a decline towards the $72,000 – $74,000 support area should Bitcoin fail to maintain the CME gap price level. The analyst highlights that this gap range is BTC’s last chance for a price bounce as the market looks increasingly bearish. BTC Enters Oversold Levels For The First Time Since 2024 In addition to its recently opened CME gap, Bitcoin has also entered oversold conditions for the first time since August 2024. This suggests that the Bitcoin price has dropped significantly and is supposedly trading below its actual value, potentially signaling a possible rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms Double Bottom After Crash, Is A Bounce To $112,000 ATH Possible? Considering the current declined state of the market, this new discovery is seen as a positive signal. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that in 2024, when Bitcoin reached similar oversold levels, it led to a massive 33% price surge. This implies that if historical trends were to repeat, BTC could also initiate a strong price rally to the upside. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is experiencing a severe downturn over the past few days. After trading above $96,000 on Monday, its price slipped below $80,000 today for the first time since November 11. This rapid decline marks a nearly 18% slump since the start of the week. From its all-time high of $109,588 on January 20, Bitcoin has now shed approximately 27% of its value. Several factors have converged to exert downward pressure on the cryptocurrency. These include the newly imposed Trump tariffs, large-scale outflows from spot BTC ETFs, and exceptionally high levels of liquidations in the futures markets. While sentiment has clearly taken a hit with the Fear and Greed Index at 16 (“Extreme Fear”), some analysts note that these conditions could also be setting the stage for the next significant move––be it further downside or a potential rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Post-Election Rally Crushed: Prices Dip Below $84,000 As Tariff Tensions Rise How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Renowned crypto analyst Scott Melker, also known as “The Wolf Of All Streets,” highlights a developing bullish divergence on multiple timeframes. In a post on X, Melker writes: “BTC 4-HOUR: Bullish divergence still building after the hidden bearish divergence I was watching for. This could fail, obviously, but RSI is holding up well. If you have been following me for years, this is my favorite signal when confirmed. Oversold RSI with bullish divs building over multiple timeframes.” Technical analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) believes the market may be tracing out a familiar corrective pattern similar to what occurred in 2021 and 2022. He suggests this pattern “could get an extended fifth of a fifth situation that takes us well into late 2025.” He added that “this does mean this could go a lot lower than many are expecting, to about $75,000 if the same higher degree fractal is followed to the 0.5 Fib retracement.” Severino also cautions that traders “do not want to see Bitcoin tag the monthly Parabolic SAR, currently located at $75,742,” as a breach of that level could signal a deeper correction. He expects the Parabolic SAR will rise slightly by the monthly close, potentially pushing the critical support zone into the low $80,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes, Fear Spikes—But This Analyst Sees $153,000 Ahead Prominent trader Josh Olszewicz (@CarpeNoctom) tracks the Ichimoku Cloud for key insights. He points to a possible retest of Bitcoin’s weekly kijun, referencing “weekly kijun support at 74k if we keep going.” Olszewicz notes Bitcoin last tapped the weekly kijun during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024—an event that saw heightened volatility across global markets. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) draws parallels with previous market cycles when Bitcoin’s Daily RSI dipped to the 20 level: “The last time BTC was this ‘oversold’ [at 20] on the Daily RSI was back in August 2023 when it was trading at $25K. The time before that was after the FTX implosion at the bear market bottom in late 2022. Short term this means little but it should start peaking your interest.” He also spotted significant buy orders on Binance futures: “BTC ~$1.8 Billion in Bids has appeared on the Binance futures pair. These bids are sitting between $70K-$79K. What happens when bids like these appear is varied. Sometimes price never moves into them, when it does start hitting them, it often fills a lot of them before (shortly) reversing. Keep in mind, these are bids that can just as easily be pulled away. Highlighting this as it’s an insane amount and this is something you rarely ever see.” Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlights the role of liquidity in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. He noted spot volume was “highly active around $100K,” but explained that “prices drop when new liquidity dries up.” For Ju, the key question is: where will fresh liquidity come from if the market is already in a distribution phase? He foresees a potential extended consolidation between “$75K-$100K,” resembling Bitcoin’s price action in early 2024. Such a range could persist until a fresh catalyst emerges. “We’ll likely see an extended consolidation in the wide range (e.g., $75K-100K), similar to early 2024, imo. This could last until some good news for Bitcoin brings in new liquidity,” Ju predicts. At press time, BTC traded at $78,856. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price has experienced such severe downward pressure and volatility that many are starting to believe that the bear market may have begun. While some analysts hope for a price reversal to the upside, others predict a further crash to $70,000, eradicating almost all gains achieved after the US election rally.  Popular crypto analyst and Co-founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes has shared a bearish prediction for the Bitcoin price. Hayes projects a further breakdown in Bitcoin’s value, suggesting an imminent drop between $70,000 and $75,000.  Bitcoin Price Crash To $70,000 A Possibility  The crypto founder shared a 2-hour Bitcoin price chart from BitMEX, explaining how the pioneer cryptocurrency could experience this decline and citing macroeconomic factors tied to United States (US) President Donald Trump as a trigger for this price drawdown. Related Reading: End Of The Road For Bitcoin? Analyst Reveals When Price Will Crash To $50,000 Hayes suggests that the market is entering a cooling phase, characterized by a potential retracement to pre-election liquidity levels. A cooling phase is a period during which the price of a cryptocurrency declines and consolidates as the market attempts to stabilize. It typically comes after a cryptocurrency experiences an explosive price increase.  Looking at his price chart, the BitMEX Co-founder pinpointed a demand zone around the blue-shaded area between $76,000 and $65,000. This price range serves as a critical support area, where traders expect significant buying interest, enough to prevent further price declines. Hayes believes that the Bitcoin price’s possible decline to $70,000 hinges on Trump’s budget and debt ceiling decision. He suggests that if Trump fails to pass a budget that increases spending and raises the debt ceiling, then further market capitulation could occur. This means that the market may undergo a rapid sell-off by a large number of investors, triggering a panic that could lead to further declines in the Bitcoin price.  Additionally, if Trump’s influence over the Republican Party weakens, Hayes indicates that market uncertainty could grow, potentially triggering a continuation of the current Bitcoin downturn. Moreover, a debt ceiling reduction could negatively impact the market’s liquidation and fuel more price fluctuations.  Overall, Haye’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin is tied to Trump’s fiscal influence. The BitMEX Co-founder suggests that, for now, the market can only “chill out, retrace, and wait.” BTC’s 3-Day Decline Marks Highest Since FTX Crash According to MetaEra, the recent 3-day decline in the Bitcoin price is the highest crash seen since the FTX fiasco in 2022. In the first three days of this week, Bitcoin recorded a 12.6% drop in value, pushing it down to its current price of $86,227. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Charts Roadmap To $117,000, What You Should Know MetaEra revealed that the widespread market sell-off could be attributed to the negative sentiment and disappointment over President Trump’s lack of swift action regarding his promises to the crypto community. Prior to his election, Trump indicated a strong interest in creating a national Bitcoin Reserve and tightening fiat liquidity conditions. With no mention of plans concerning these crucial initiatives, uncertainty looms, leading to a weakened market sentiment. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

In his latest video update, long-time market analyst and self-described “four-year cycle” trader Bob Loukas delivered a breakdown of Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Despite a roughly 22% pullback from its recent all-time high, Loukas asserts that the leading cryptocurrency’s price action remains “nothing we have not seen before.” Loukas opened his video by acknowledging growing anxiety among traders following Bitcoin’s drop from around $110,000 to the mid-$80,000 range. However, he emphasized that such swings are a natural part of Bitcoin’s characteristic volatility. “As I record this video Bitcoin’s at $87,000, down from an all-time high of around $110,000… which historically, even for this four-year cycle, is basically right on the averages […] a 20% drawdown from a high,” he stated. Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles While Loukas emphasized that intracycle corrections of this magnitude “should not come necessarily as a major surprise,” he also acknowledged that deeper drops remain possible in the short term. In his assessment, a temporary cascade toward $80,000 or even the mid-$70,000s—which would reflect around a 30% drawdown—cannot be ruled out: “There’s no reason why this current move couldn’t drop all the way down to the low $80,000s. There’s a more outside chance that it could also fall into the $70,000s—maybe $75,000 or $73,000. That’s still within Bitcoin’s historical volatility range.” According to Loukas, these corrective moves represent a routine “fear reset.” He contends that late buyers in the previous upswing often capitulate during such pullbacks. However, in the context of Bitcoin’s broader uptrend, he argues these phases have historically paved the way for fresh rallies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Headed For $72,000? These Metrics Could Hint So Loukas primarily frames his analysis around a four-year cycle, which he subdivides into shorter “weekly cycles” of roughly six months each. Each weekly cycle, he says, typically ascends for two-thirds of its duration and then declines for the remainder, resetting sentiment. Although the current pullback unsettles many traders, Loukas sees it as consistent with Bitcoin’s longstanding cyclical pattern: “Unless you believe that the four-year cycle has peaked—which I do not—I see this as one of the normal, oscillating weekly cycle declines. It’s the same E and flow we’ve witnessed so many times.” Loukas revealed that his first sale target for the model portfolio is around $153,000 per Bitcoin, contingent on where this current decline bottoms. From the mid-$80,000s, his baseline scenario projects a potential 80% upward move during the next multi-week upswing. He emphasized that this number may be revised depending on how low Bitcoin drops during the present correction. Crucially, Loukas noted that he remains open to the possibility that the top could be in if the next rebound falters in a pattern known as a “failed weekly cycle.” He explained that once Bitcoin establishes a new short-term low—potentially near $80,000 or into the $70,000s—the market’s next test will be its recovery. If that bounce fails to surpass the prior high near $110,000 and subsequently undercuts the newly established low, it would signal deeper downside: “If we see a sharp countertrend move that rolls over quickly, takes out the new weekly cycle low, that’s extremely concerning. It would indicate a change in trend and possibly that the four-year cycle has already peaked.” The Decoupling Of Bitcoin And Altcoins Although Loukas briefly mentioned the altcoin market, he highlighted how this cycle appears to be diverging from past altcoin frenzies. Loukas described a “significant decoupling” of Bitcoin from other digital assets, noting the lack of sustained retail or institutional interest in most alternative tokens: “There isn’t a retail case, there isn’t a retail flow… so many (altcoin) narratives have come and gone… It looks as if the Trump coin was the top of that, which is probably not surprising in hindsight.” He maintains that Bitcoin, meanwhile, is increasingly being viewed as a distinct, more mature asset class, capturing interest from pension funds, sovereign wealth managers, and institutions well outside the traditional “crypto” sphere. Related Reading: Strategy (MSTR) Crashes 55%—Is A $44 Billion Bitcoin Liquidation Possible? According to Loukas, Bitcoin’s monthly chart shows no conclusive signs of a cycle top. He remains convinced the market has not fully played out the final leg of its historical four-year bull trend, which, in previous cycles, culminated roughly 35 months after the last bear market low. For context, he pointed out that the current cycle’s low took shape in late 2022, placing the next potential peak around the fall or early winter of 2025, if it follows established precedent: “We’re in year three of the cycle. Time-wise, if this follows prior four-year structures, we have another leg higher, possibly an aggressive one, heading into late 2025. But no cycle is guaranteed to rhyme perfectly. We stay alert and look for the warning signals of a final top—until then, I see no reason to change the bullish view.” Despite this bullish perspective, Loukas reiterated that no cycle framework is infallible. He outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin’s weekly cycle might fail—specifically if a new short-term upswing is quickly reversed, setting a lower low. Such a move, he said, could herald a cycle-wide trend change. Still, in his judgment, probabilities favor a continuation of the uptrend: “Until we have a top in the four-year cycle, I think we have to just grin and bear [the drawdowns] and see it through […] the timing suggests to me that we are experiencing one of these periods where we are in a declining phase into a weekly cycle low before moving higher.” At press time, BTC traded at $86,562. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) prices plummeted to a four-month low, reaching as low as $81,000, as the anticipated “Trump bump” in the markets faded. This has prompted investors and traders to hedge against further decreases, with Bitcoin options indicating a notable interest in put options with a strike price of $70,000.  Bitcoin Plummets 20% Since Trump’s Inauguration According to data from Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, this strike price represents the second-highest open interest among all contracts set to expire on February 28, with a total of $4.9 billion in open interest poised to expire by Friday. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Sees Red—What’s Next for the Price? Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, Bitcoin has experienced a substantial decline of roughly 20% from its record highs.  Market analysts attribute this downturn to a combination of factors, including Trump’s “aggressive geopolitical” stance and ongoing concerns about elevated inflation. Chris Newhouse, director of research at Cumberland Labs, noted, “Tariff policies are further dampening the outlook, and stubbornly high short-term inflation expectations add to the overall caution.”  Newhouse also highlighted that the Bybit Ethereum (ETH) hack has not only exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price but has also negatively impacted overall market sentiment. Investors Pull Back Amid Declining Demand For ETFs The market has also witnessed a significant liquidation of bullish bets, with around $2 billion wiped out over the past three days, according to data from Coinglass.  Bitcoin perpetual futures—a popular method for offshore investors to leverage their positions—saw a sharp decline in long positions during this timeframe. Adding to the bearish sentiment, demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has waned, with the group experiencing approximately $2.1 billion in outflows over the past six days.  This reflects a broader trend of investors pulling back, with more than $1 billion withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday alone, marking the largest outflow since these funds debuted in January of the previous year. The Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) were among the hardest hit. Related Reading: Avalanche (AVAX) Overextended—Is A Market Shakeup Imminent? Bohan Jiang, head of over-the-counter options trading at Abra, commented, “This is a mix of spot selling and basis unwind. In my view, nearly all of this is from ETF spot outflows from directional traders.” Ethereum has also felt the impact of the Bybit incident, amplifying its volatility, while Solana (SOL) has surrendered gains achieved in recent months amid declining interest in memecoins. The market’s search for a new catalyst to reverse its bearish sentiment has led many investors to remain on the sidelines, rotating out of cryptocurrencies in a risk-off environment.  Ravi Doshi, co-head of markets at crypto prime broker FalconX, stated, “The crypto market is still in search of a new catalyst to reverse bearish sentiment.” Currently, BTC is attempting to find support at $84,578, but has fallen another 4.5% in the 24-hour time frame.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has provided insights into where the Bitcoin price may be headed next. The analyst alluded to the current liquidation data, revealing that there are currently $16 billion in possible liquidations from BTC’s current price to the $107,000 price level.  Liquidation Data Indicates A Bitcoin Price Recovery Is Imminent In an X post, Kevin Capital revealed that there is only $1.5 billion in long liquidations from the current Bitcoin price to the $77,000 price level. On the other hand, there is $16 billion in short liquidations from the current price to the $107,000 level. The analyst remarked that this is one of the biggest disparities in history.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 9-Month Cycle Says It’s Not Over, Analyst Shows Where We Are In The Bull Run He further noted that the market makers prefer to move prices where they can most transact. As such, this suggests that the Bitcoin price could rebound as these market makers look to grab the liquidity at the upside. Kevin Capital remarked that patience is still needed while the 3-day resolves itself. However, he added that overall, things are looking a little clearer for the bulls.  The Bitcoin price has crashed over the past two days, dropping to as low as $86,000, sparking concerns that the bull run might be over. However, Kevin Capital’s analysis provides some optimism that the bull run is far from over and that the flagship crypto could still reclaim the $100,000 price level and possibly reach new highs.  BTC’s long-term holders also seem confident that the Bitcoin price will still go higher. In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that they had accumulated almost 20,400 BTC following the sharp sell-off that began two days ago.  BTC Could Still Drop To The $80K Lows Crypto analysts Ali Martinez and Titan of Crypto have suggested that the Bitcoin price could still drop to the lower part of the $80,000 range. In an X post, Martinez stated that Bitcoin is showing similarities to the 2021 market top. He further remarked that if this pattern holds, there could be a period of consolidation at current levels before the next leg down for BTC.  Related Reading: This Analyst Called The Bitcoin Price Crash Early, Total Prediction Says More Pain Is Coming His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $80,850 when this next leg down occurs. Titan of Crypto also raised the possibility of BTC dropping to $81,000. He stated that BTC is breaking the trendline and dipping below the last wick low. He claimed that BTC’s weekly candle failing to reclaim the trendline could send the flagship crypto to the next support, which is Kijun at $81,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $88,700, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Shares of Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) have dropped by over 55% from the November 24 high at $543 to around $250. With the software intelligence firm now holding approximately 499,096 Bitcoin—worth around $44 billion at current prices—market participants are wondering whether the company could ever face a forced liquidation of its massive Bitcoin treasury. On Tuesday, analysts from The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) took to X to provide a comprehensive thread analyzing this scenario. Here’s what they had to say: “The MicroStrategy liquidation: As MicroStrategy, MSTR, falls over -55%, many are asking about ‘forced liquidation.’ The company now holds $44 BILLION worth of Bitcoin, could they be forced to sell it? Is liquidation even possible?” Is A Forced Bitcoin Liquidation Possible? According to The Kobeissi Letter, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings total approximately 499,096 BTC, currently worth $43.7 billion. The firm’s average cost basis sits around $66,350 per Bitcoin. This naturally raises concerns about what happens if Bitcoin’s price were to drop significantly below MicroStrategy’s average entry point. “Let us begin by stating that this isn’t the first time liquidation is mentioned. MSTR has been buying Bitcoin for years and there have been MULTIPLE bear markets since then. This includes the 2022 bear market when Bitcoin fell from ~$70K to ~$15K. Is this time different?,” the analysts write. Related Reading: Market Signals Point To Caution: Bitcoin’s 3-Day Chart Shows Potential Sell Alert Critically, MicroStrategy’s operations rely on raising capital—often through convertible notes—to buy more Bitcoin. The Kobeissi Letter points out that MicroStrategy currently carries about $8.2 billion in total debt for its $43.4 billion Bitcoin holdings, representing a roughly 19% leverage ratio. Much of this debt is held in convertible notes maturing around 2028. “Just about the only way a ‘forced liquidation’ occurs if there is a ‘fundamental change’ at the company. This COULD require MSTR to liquidate Bitcoin holdings if an early redemption is called on the notes,” the experts from The Kobeissi Letter argue. A “fundamental change” could include corporate bankruptcy, or a vote by shareholders to dissolve the company—both scenarios that The Kobeissi Letter stresses are remote under the current structure. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman and prominent Bitcoin advocate, holds 46.8% of the company’s voting power, meaning he could effectively block decisions leading to liquidation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes: Experts Warn Of 6-Month Slump To $73,000 Despite the steep share price decline, The Kobeissi Letter suggests that an outright forced liquidation is “highly unlikely.” The structure of the convertible notes and MicroStrategy’s ability to raise capital give the firm significant flexibility. Even so, if Bitcoin were to experience a protracted and severe price drop—well below its current levels—MicroStrategy might face challenges in servicing its debt and raising fresh capital: “However, what if these convertible bonds remain below the conversion price at maturity, beginning in 2027+? For this to happen, Bitcoin would need to fall well over 50% from current levels and remain there.” Michael Saylor has repeatedly brushed off the liquidation scenario. According to The Kobeissi Letter: “Michael Saylor was asked about liquidation recently. His answer was that even if Bitcoin fell to $1, they still would not get liquidated. They would ‘just buy all of the Bitcoin.’ While this sounds good in theory, the convertible note holders cannot be forgotten.” MicroStrategy’s business model—raising funds to buy Bitcoin, potentially driving the price higher, and then issuing new shares at a premium—depends on investor confidence. If shares continue to falter, or if Bitcoin dives well below MicroStrategy’s average entry price, the firm’s ability to attract capital could be severely tested: “We are now witnessing the first ‘bear market’ in MicroStrategy since it gained popularity in 2024. The question becomes: will investors continue to buy the dip here? Michael Saylor says ‘Bitcoin is on sale.’” However, with Saylor’s voting power and the long-dated convertible notes, a forced liquidation seems highly unlikely in the near term. At press time, BTC traded at $89,245. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent price crash took the entire market by surprise, leaving bullish investors reeling in losses. Particularly, this crash saw Bitcoin losing its foothold at the $90,000 price level and extended a crash across multiple cryptocurrencies.  Technical analyst Rekt Capital identified this pullback as a downside deviation within a re-accumulation range, hinting at potential market changes in the coming weeks. Bitcoin’s Drop Below $90,000: A Necessary Reset? Bitcoin’s break below $90,000 in the past few days marks its first time trading below this level since November 2024. After months of sustained upward momentum, Bitcoin started to consolidate below the $100,000 price level, spending most weeks trading between $90,000 and $100,000.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Officially Enter Into Greed Territory, Is This Good Or Bad For Price? This consolidation phase, while unsettling to some investors, was interpreted by some analysts as a natural part of Bitcoin’s broader market cycle. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has pointed out that Bitcoin frequently undergoes phases of re-accumulation during bull cycles, allowing the market to reset before the next leg upward. According to his assessment, the current price movement aligns with historical trends, where Bitcoin establishes an accumulation floor before another rally. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s recent break below $90,000 is part of this reaccumulation range phenomenon. Rekt Capital describes this as a “downside deviation” below the range low, which is a pattern Bitcoin has exhibited multiple times in past cycles.  What To Expect From BTC’s Next Move Re-accumulation phases are generally highlighted by buying pressure among a few whales and retail investors while the larger market continues to sell. According to data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, some long-term Bitcoin holders have remained unfazed by the recent price crash. In fact, the latest selloff has presented them with a key accumulation opportunity, with these long-term addresses increasing their total Bitcoin holdings by 20,400 BTC in the past 48 hours. Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash To $99,000, Here’s What’s Supposed To Happen Next Bitcoin’s future trajectory will depend on how it reacts within this re-accumulation range. If Bitcoin successfully reclaims $90,000, it could confirm that the break below was merely a shakeout before further gains. A strong rebound from this level would likely reignite bullish sentiment, potentially paving the way for a substantial break above $100,000. However, an extended decline below $90,000 could be very devastating for Bitcoin and its long-term holders who are currently accumulating in the reaccumulation zone, as there isn’t much of a support level to prop up any downtrend until the $70,000 price level. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $88,628, reflecting a 7.5% decline over the past seven days. However, the cryptocurrency has shown early signs of stabilization, having rebounded by roughly 2% after hitting an intraday low of $86,867. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC), the market’s leading cryptocurrency, has officially entered a new downtrend phase following a period of consolidation around the mid-$90,000 levels.  After reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January, Bitcoin has now seen a significant drop of 7%, bringing its current price to approximately $87,400. This decline raises concerns about the sustainability of the broader bull market as investor sentiment shifts towards fear. Could A Drop Below $80,000 Be Imminent? Market expert Jesse Olson recently took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to question whether Bitcoin is nearing a local top or possibly “the” top for this market cycle.  Olson referenced historical data suggesting that previous pivot points for Bitcoin often signal significant downturns. He highlighted two notable instances: In April/May 2021, the Bitcoin price experienced a pivot point about 20% below its local top, leading to a price drop of 56%. In November 2021, the pivot was around 15% from “the” top, resulting in a staggering 77% decline. Currently, the price sits approximately 15% below the recent peak, and Olson notes a pending sell signal on BTC’s 3-day chart, indicating potential further downside. Related Reading: Litecoin Trading Activity Increases Over The Past Month – Potential LTC ETF Draws Speculation The expert also mentioned that while Bitcoin has hit Target 2 of 4 in his analysis, several indicators suggest the price could drop below $80,000, with higher time frames beginning to show bearish signals. Arthur Hayes Warns Of Bitcoin Downturn Adding to the bearish sentiment, market expert Arthur Hayes expressed concerns in a recent post on X, warning of a potential extension of Bitcoin’s downturn.  Hayes highlighted that many holders of BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), IBIT, are hedge funds that have gone long on the ETF while simultaneously shorting Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures to earn a yield greater than short-term US treasuries. Should Bitcoin’s price continue to fall, Hayes suggests that these funds may unwind their positions, selling IBIT and buying back CME futures. This profit-taking strategy could lead to further declines in Bitcoin’s price, potentially pushing it down toward the $70,000 mark. Related Reading: Dogecoin Activity Levels Crash To 4-Month Lows, Does This Spell Doom For The Meme Coin? Despite the prevailing bearish outlook, analyst Doctor Profit presents a more optimistic perspective. He emphasizes that the production cost of Bitcoin is currently at $95,000, meaning the market price is below this critical threshold. Historically, prices trading below production costs have signaled prime buying opportunities for investors. Doctor Profit argues that this situation creates a compelling case for potential investors, as the market often sees price rebounds when production costs are higher than market prices.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price has fallen more than -8.8% since Friday when Bybit suffered the biggest crypto hack in history. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $99,493 late last week, only to retreat to roughly $91,500 at press time, marking a -5.5% decline since Monday. This downturn not only shatters Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above $95,000 but also places it on the verge of losing its critical 97-day trading range between $91,000 and $102,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has broken below the descending trend channel that has been in play since January 20. What’s Next For Bitcoin? Ari Paul, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of BlockTower Capital, offered a wide-ranging view on Bitcoin’s trajectory and the broader macroeconomic environment. In a post on X, Paul touched on the potential for continued equity-market weakness and its knock-on effect on digital assets: “My market take: equities in for 4-15 months of pain (I’ll guess 9 months) tied to deflationary government policies (tariffs and mass layoffs mostly). Then it’s a political question – does Trump admin ‘capitulate’ and turn severely inflationary? In vast majority of similar cases in history the answer was yes, but just a low confidence guess to me currently.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Price Manipulated? Expert Exposes The Truth Shifting focus to crypto, Paul emphasized that while cryptocurrencies may still display short-term correlations with equities, they are inherently on different cyclical rhythms: “What does that mean for crypto? I continue to think crypto and equities are on different cycles rhythms, but that doesn’t negate shorter term correlation. Alts probably follow equities down at least at first (but they’re already down so much, even versus 2021 prices, they may bottom well before equities.)” Speaking on Bitcoin, Paul predicts that the leading cryptocurrency will “act like a blend of gold and S&P 500,” adding, “if gold remains strong, than that would suggest Bitcoin would outperform losing equities, but maybe not by much. A retrace to ~$73k-$77k seems plausible, I’d probably add there.” Despite the near-term volatility, Paul remains optimistic: “I remain confident crypto bull market not over, but this is looking increasingly different from prior cycles, maybe substantially slower and longer. My base case is that crypto will lead the general macro inflation turn, so maybe crypto bull run resumes in 6 months and equities turn up in 9. The dates given are just indications of my guesstimates. I place no weight on the exact timeframes.” BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes also took to X to warn of an imminent downward push. He pointed to the mechanics of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and futures market arbitrage as potential drivers of increased selling pressure. “Bitcoin goblin town incoming: Lots of IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries. If that basis drops as BTC falls, then these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures. These funds are in profit, and given basis is close to UST yields they will unwind during US hours and realise their profit. $70,000 I see you mofo,” he writes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates In Tight Zone: Why A Crash To $84,000 Is Likely Notably, research firm 10x Research published an analysis on Monday indicating that while Bitcoin ETFs—led by BlackRock’s IBIT product—have garnered $38.6 billion in net inflows since their January 2024 launch, much of this capital may not represent straightforward bets on rising BTC prices, aligning with Hayes’ statement. “Although Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $38.6 billion in net inflows since their January 2024 launch, our analysis suggests that only $17.5 billion (44%) represents genuine long-only buying. The majority—56%—is likely tied to arbitrage strategies, where short Bitcoin futures positions offset inflows,” the firm noted. Prior to the ongoing price drop, market technician Tony “The Bull” Severino, warned of looming volatility in Bitcoin, noting that the daily Bollinger Bands were hitting extreme tightness—a pattern often followed by a significant price swing: “A decision will be made soon in Bitcoin, as the daily Bollinger Bands reach the third-tightest reading since 2018. In late 2018, record tightness led to a 50% decline in just over a month. In mid 2023, record tightness led to a 200% climb in just over 200 days. Which direction does volatility release?” With Bitcoin teetering just above $91,000 and the market still reeling from Bybit’s historic hack, the market is at a pivotal juncture. Chart signals, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the unwinding of complex trading strategies collectively draw a clouded outlook with a possible extension of this slump to the $73,000–$77,000 range in the coming months. Meanwhile, this does not have to herald the beginning of the bear market. Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder VC, commented via X: “In the middle of 2021:BTC drew down 56%, ETH drew down 61%, SOL drew down 67%, many others 70-80%+. You can come up with all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we’re going through isn’t unprecedented. Those calling for a full blown bear are misguided.” At press time, BTC traded at $90,537. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Analysts are currently leaning towards a further breakdown in the Bitcoin price, as market volatility has positioned the pioneer cryptocurrency in a tight consolidation zone. Crypto expert Hamed_AZ on TradingView has shared a bullish and bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, the analyst highlights that a crash of $85,000 is more likely.  According to Hames_AZ, the Bitcoin price is set to decline further, possibly reaching new lows at $85,000. The analyst revealed that the cryptocurrency continues to trade sideways, failing to break out of its present consolidation zone. Bitcoin Price Set To Crash To $85,000 Earlier this month, the Bitcoin price crashed to new levels below $100,000, failing to break key resistance areas in its attempt to reach new all-time highs. At the time, the sharp decline was likely due to broader market volatility and a shift in sentiment. However, the cryptocurrency has failed to recover its position above $100,000, driven by downward pressure from recent tariffs implemented by the United States on other countries. Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash To $99,000, Here’s What’s Supposed To Happen Next Hames_AZ asserts that the market will remain in a downtrend, with no hint of an upward movement, if Bitcoin continues to trade below key resistance levels. Sharing two possible scenarios for the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory, the analyst leaned towards a more corrective outlook, projecting that Bitcoin could retrace back to the support zone before initiating another upward move. As indicated in the green area in his price chart, the analyst pinpointed Bitcoin’s support zone between $85,000 and $87,500. While Bitcoin is historically known for not staying in a downtrend for too long, the TradingView analyst still expects further breakdown in its price, highlighting that a decline at this time is a more probable scenario.  In the chart, the analyst also illustrates a descending channel pattern, where the price of Bitcoin is clearly moving within a downward-sloping channel, indicating a short-term downtrend. The Fibonacci level at 0.382 further aligns with the support zone, making it a strong potential area for a price reversal.  Based on the analyst’s projection, a bounce from this support would invalidate further bearish momentum. Additionally, the support zone serves as a critical demand area where buyers typically step in, reinforcing price stability.    Possible Bullish Scenario If Key Resistance Levels Are Breached  While sharing a bearish prediction of the Bitcoin Price to $85,000, Hames_AZ also presented an alternative bullish scenario that could propel the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs. The TradingView analyst believes that if Bitcoin can successfully break resistance levels between $97,000 and $102,500 and close above them, then the market should anticipate a continuation of its previous uptrend.  Related Reading: This Analyst Called The Bitcoin Price Crash Early, Total Prediction Says More Pain Is Coming A confirmed breakout from this resistance area would signal stronger market dynamics and further growth for the Bitcoin price. Based on his analysis, he expects Bitcoin to rise as high as $120,000, surpassing previous all-time highs attained earlier this year. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

In a new research report shared on X, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, has dispelled ongoing rumors alleging that the Bitcoin price is being artificially held down. Consorti lays out a comprehensive examination of on-chain data, pointing to the normal cyclical behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) and their profit-taking patterns as key drivers of bitcoin’s current trading dynamic. Is The Bitcoin Price Currently Manipulated? One of the core arguments Consorti addresses is the suspicion that “the boring period of consolidation” might be engineered through hidden market forces. In his words: “Claims of artificial price suppression is a gold-era argument that doesn’t work in bitcoin, whose ledger is auditable in real time, meaning we can see exactly who is buying and selling through their own node on the network.” Consorti underscores that any concerted effort to artificially cap Bitcoin would be visible to on-chain observers. Instead, the data points to a well-trodden pattern: after accumulating BTC in the lower price ranges—between $15,000 to $25,000—LTHs sell portions of their holdings into higher prices, redistributing coins to new market participants who continue bidding bitcoin upward. “This is normal. Those who held for years start offloading as price moves higher, transferring coins to new buyers stepping in to bid the price to even higher highs.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Serious Price Compression – What Happened Last Time According to Consorti, Bitcoin has now entered its 100+ day consolidation range around $95,000—a stretch he compares to previous multi-month consolidation phases that eventually resolved in major price expansions. The research provides a retrospective look at how LTHs behaved in previous price climbs: “LTHs accumulated BTC from $15k to $25k, before selling to new market entrants (short-term holders) who bid the price up to the next ‘step’. They did the same from $25k to $40k, from $40k to $65k, and from $65k to the ~$95,000 range we find ourselves in now.” Consorti notes that LTHs have lately turned back into net accumulators. Although the shift is slight, he contends this behavior usually marks the tail end of consolidation before another breakout. The researcher also points to a recent $1.4 billion Ethereum hack on Bybit—allegedly the largest in crypto’s history—as a factor momentarily knocking bitcoin off an attempt to break out of its falling wedge pattern. Despite the market disruption, bitcoin only slipped 1.75% on the day, which Consorti says is a testament to the leading BTC’s “outright strength” and diminishing correlation to broader crypto assets. Overall, Consorti expects the falling wedge to “resolve itself by the first week of March,” barring additional black swan events. He also observes that Bitcoin’s current consolidation zone may stretch beyond 101 days, cautioning that “maximum pain in the market” could see it extend to 236 days, mirroring last summer’s protracted consolidation period. Consorti also references the possible impact of President Trump’s working group on Bitcoin, which is set to decide on the viability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of June. Should a final decision come sooner, he suggests it may provide a major spark for the market—either bullish or bearish, depending on the outcome. Spot ETF inflows, once seen as a main propeller of Bitcoin’s price, have diminished since early January. Although they still show 7–8 figure daily inflows, these are down significantly from the 9–10 figure levels that occurred throughout last spring and fall, hinting that other market forces, such as institutional and on-chain dynamics, might be more influential in this cycle’s price movement. Another topic is Bitcoin’s dislocation from global M2 money supply, which had tracked the price with uncanny accuracy for nearly 18 months. That correlation broke when global M2 suggested a deeper downturn for bitcoin, yet BTC continued to hover around $95,000. Now that M2 is edging upward again on a weaker US dollar, the research suggests the possibility of Bitcoin aligning for its next leg higher. Comparing Bitcoin to gold with a 50-day lead likewise implies that gold’s recent trajectory may “point to an upside resolution”, albeit less precisely than M2 correlations. If this holds, a push towards $120,000 appears plausible. Related Reading: Bitfinex Whale Activity Increases As Bitcoin Approaches $100k—Further Surge Ahead? Consorti concludes by shifting attention to the evolving landscape of US Treasury (UST) demand. Major foreign holders such as China and Japan have progressively reduced or flatlined their positions—China’s holdings have reached a 2009 low of $759 billion, while Russia has fully exited, and Japan remains at $1.06 trillion for 13 years. “It’s not just China. Russia has fully exited USTs. Japan, the largest foreign holder, has been sitting flat at $1.06 trillion for 13 years.” Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s share of outstanding marketable USTs has surged from 22% in 2008 to 47.3% in 2025, stepping in as foreign demand wanes. But a new player is joining the market in the form of stablecoins, which collectively hold about $200 billion in Treasuries to back their dollar-pegged tokens. According to Consorti, this stablecoin demand: “Could lower long-term interest rates. The proliferation of stablecoins and their use of Treasuries as a reserve asset means they’re functioning like an entirely new foreign central bank.” He argues that stablecoins effectively ensure fresh demand for Treasuries, helping the US government offset declining foreign involvement and sustain its borrowing needs. White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks has publicly echoed this perspective, saying stablecoins help maintain liquidity for US debt. At press time, BTC traded $95,645. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has soared past the $98,000 on Thursday, fueling intense debate among traders over whether the $100K milestone is again within reach or if the current rally is vulnerable to a swift correction. Behind the scenes, market observers point to surging open interest (OI) and increased leverage, spotlighting the possibility of a leverage-driven push. Bitcoin Rally Or Trap? CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) warned of a “leverage driven pump,” noting a $2.4B jump in Bitcoin’s OI within 24 hours. Via X, he wrote: “Leverage Driven Pump: $2.4B (7.2%) increase in Open Interest in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours.” Confirming these observations, well-known crypto commentator Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) highlighted the significant role of fresh long positions in propelling prices higher: “Lots of fresh longs coming in here on BTC which is shoving price higher. Kinda funny that the entire market is getting lifted right now off the back of these degen longs here.” Analysts from alpha dojo (@alphadojo_net) echoed sentiments of caution, underscoring a notable gap between futures-based open interest and spot-driven purchases: “BTC continues to grind upwards, while the OI rises steadily, but there is little spot buying. BTC is now approaching the upper end of the range again. It seems that some market participants have tried to frontrun Saylor‘s planned $2 billion bid.” Related Reading: Bitcoin RHODL Momentum Slowing Down—Analyst Warns Pattern ‘Not Ideal’ Though the prospect of a large buy could propel the market, they warn that without fresh catalysts like a “short-term narrative or positive news, it currently looks like BTC will struggle to sustainably pump above the $100k mark.” Renowned crypto analyst Bob Loukas provided a cyclical framework for interpreting Bitcoin’s price movements, noting that the market may be approaching the end of one multi-week cycle and the start of another: “We’re on verge of completing a Bitcoin Weekly Cycle, as I’ve been sharing last 6 weeks. For context, there have been just 5 weekly Cycles since the 2022 bear market lows. (Avg 6month events). 4 of these cycles had 90-105% moves. One failed to do much (June-Sept 23).” When asked if this signals an imminent market top, Loukas clarified:“I’m saying we’re about to begin a new one. Cycles always begin from the lows.” His comments suggest that while a cycle transition is imminent, it does not necessarily equate to a market peak—rather, it could mark the start of a new uptrend. Related Reading: Gamestop CEO Fuels Bitcoin Speculation: $4.6 Billion Buy Incoming? Technical analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) emphasized the significance of Bitcoin’s daily close above the $97,700 threshold, suggesting that a successful retest of this zone could pave the way for a move beyond $100,000: “The early-stage momentum generated by the Bullish Divergence has translated itself into this recent breakout move. And with the recent Daily Close above ~$97700, Bitcoin will now try to retest said level as support to enable trend continuation.” He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) channel, implying that the break above a series of lower highs may signal the next leg up: “Over time, Bitcoin’s price continued to retest the blue trendline as support. And the RSI continued to hold its Channel Bottom. Lately, the RSI broke its series of Lower Highs, indicating that the RSI may be ready to uptrend to the Channel Top.” Looking ahead, a clear retest of $97,700 as support could confirm Rekt Capital’s bullish outlook: “Daily Close above $97700 has been successful (light blue). Any dips into $97700 would constitute a retest attempt. A post-breakout retest of $97700 into new support would fully confirm the breakout to position BTC for a rally to $101k resistance.” At press time, BTC traded at $98,645. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has extended its consolidation below $100,000 since the beginning of February. This price lag has been compounded by a slowdown in bullish sentiment among investors and a slowing euphoria regarding the crypto-positive influences of Trump’s new administration in the US.  Despite this rally slowdown, technical analysis continues to support a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. The current stagnation appears to be a re-accumulation phase for bullish investors; a pattern observed multiple times before major upward moves this cycle. Furthermore, analysis shows that the USDT dominance is going to play a crucial role in triggering the next Bitcoin rally toward $150,000. Bitcoin’s Re-Accumulation Phase And The Role Of USDT Dominance According to a technical analyst (TradingShot) on the TradingView platform, Bitcoin is currently exhibiting an interesting accumulation trend alongside the USDT dominance. The USDT dominance reflects the percentage of the total crypto market capitalization in USDT, indicating whether traders favor stablecoins over riskier crypto assets. A high USDT dominance typically signals low buying pressure in cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a declining USDT dominance often suggests that traders are rotating funds back into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly PPO Turns Red At $102,000, What It Means For The Bull Market Interestingly, the USDT dominance has had a crucial simultaneous occurrence with Bitcoin’s preparations for rallies this cycle. Two notable re-accumulation periods have occurred after Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022, with each leading to significant price rallies. The first accumulation period spanned from January 2023 to March 2023, while the second occurred between November 2023 and February 2024. Both of these re-accumulation phases took place at the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level from an earlier accumulation phase. Additionally, these phases shared common characteristics, including a peaking 1-day RSI structure in the USDT dominance chart and a pullback in the Dollar Index (DXY). Now, Bitcoin appears to be mirroring the same conditions again, with USDT dominance and the DXY pulling back with the current re-accumulation phase, which has been playing out since December 2024. If the pattern continues to unfold as expected, this could indicate that Bitcoin is on the verge of its next major rally. USDT To Send BTC To $150,000 If Bitcoin follows the pattern observed in previous rallies this cycle with the USDT dominance to the core, the re-accumulation phase could end within the next one or two weeks and eventually cause another rally to new all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Unravels 157-Day Fractal Similar To Last Cycle, Why A Surge To $169,000 Is Possible In terms of a target, the analyst noted a potential $150,000 target for the Bitcoin price, at least before another major correction and a subsequent accumulation phase. However, Bitcoin must overcome key resistance levels, particularly the psychological $100,000 mark, which has served as a major hurdle in recent weeks.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $97,175, up by 1.6% in the past 24 hours. A move to $150,000 will represent a 54% increase from the current price. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com

In a development that has reignited speculation within the Bitcoin community, GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen has, for the first time in nearly four years, followed a second account on X. Until now, Cohen exclusively followed the official GameStop handle, but as of today, he has added Bitcoin Magazine to his follow list. This comes on the heels of a much-discussed photograph that surfaced two weeks ago showing Cohen with Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). ???? Go on king ???? https://t.co/ApTV3WwTaj — David Bailey???????? $0.85mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) February 20, 2025 Will Gamestop Buy Bitcoin? GameStop has periodically found itself at the center of Bitcoin-related conjecture, particularly since the pandemic era “meme stock” phenomenon. At that time, a theory posted on Wall Street Bets—a popular Reddit forum—proposed that the gaming retailer, viewed by many as a relic of brick-and-mortar retail, was primed for a turnaround. Widespread retail buying propelled the share price upward, challenging major hedge funds that had shorted the stock. The resulting clash was widely likened to a “David vs. Goliath” scenario. The Bitcoin connection emerged as the pandemic-driven mania intersected with discourse on decentralized finance. Some observers drew parallels between the grassroots support for GameStop and the way Bitcoin was embraced as a hedge against systemic corruption in traditional finance. Since then, theories have circulated that GameStop could adopt a corporate Bitcoin strategy, potentially mirroring MicroStrategy’s aggressive move into BTC. Two weeks ago, Cohen posted a photo on X in which he appeared alongside Michael Saylor, as reported by Bitcoinist. Given Saylor’s reputation as a high-profile advocate for corporate BTC treasury strategies—he spearheads the acquisition of nearly 500,000 BTC at Strategy—many in the Bitcoin sphere speculated that Cohen might be seeking Saylor’s counsel. However, caution soon followed. According to two unnamed sources cited by CNBC, Saylor has no direct involvement in any potential GameStop plan to buy Bitcoin. The rumors remain just that: speculation that has yet to be confirmed by either Cohen or GameStop. Fueling these rumors is the fact that GameStop reported having around $4.616 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of October 31, 2024. Tim Kotzman, host of “The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast,” recently highlighted GameStop’s investment policy that grants Cohen “the authority to invest […] in cryptocurrencies without requiring shareholder or board approval.” “If GameStop $GME were to invest its $4.6 billion cash reserves into BTC, it would acquire approximately 48,000 BTC,” wrote analyst Han Akamatsu on X, noting that such a position would make GameStop the second-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, surpassing MARA Holdings but still behind Strategy. However, such predictions are heavily speculative. GameStop has dabbled in NFTs and blockchain projects in the past, but there is no official indication that the company is imminently acquiring Bitcoin. At press time, BTC traded at $97,708. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On Tuesday, February 19, the Federal Reserve released their meeting minutes, revealing that central bankers are considering an end—or at least a significant slowdown—to quantitative tightening (QT). The document states: “Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” These remarks have fueled optimism among Bitcoin experts who view the potential end of QT as a bullish signal. Many see it as a precursor to greater liquidity entering financial markets, a condition that has historically benefited risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The newly published minutes confirm that certain Fed officials are worried about the interaction between ongoing balance sheet reduction and the looming debt ceiling debate. The possibility of large-scale US Treasury issuance once the debt ceiling is resolved appears to be a key driver behind calls to pause or halt QT. Related Reading: Bears In Trouble? Bitcoin Liquidity Signals A Brutal Squeeze To $111,000 No explicit shift to quantitative easing (QE) was announced, but the acknowledgment that balance sheet reduction might be curtailed has been enough to stoke speculation in digital asset circles. The minutes must be unanimously approved by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), further suggesting an intentional message from policymakers. Implications For Bitcoin Renowned market commentator and host of the On the Margin podcast, Felix Jauvin, took to X to emphasize the significance of the Fed’s signaling, writing: “There it is, QT coming to an end this spring. Reminder that every FOMC member has to unanimously approve these minutes, this is intentional.” While Jauvin underscores the unanimity behind these minutes, he stops short of predicting an immediate shift toward QE. Instead, he points to a specific chain of events that the Fed seems to be navigating. The Fed has already reduced the pace of balance sheet runoff by half compared to its initial rate. Jauvin also notes that as the reverse repo facility (RRP) nears zero and the Fed reaches its target reserve level of roughly 3% of GDP, an end to QT becomes more likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Meets Fiscal Reality: Fidelity’s Timmer Predicts What’s Next Moreover, concerns loom over the Treasury General Account (TGA) potentially being rebuilt once the debt ceiling is resolved, leading to sizable bill issuance which could lead to interim disruptions in funding markets. Therefore, rather than pivot to QE, Jauvin believes the Fed could pursue a temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, allowing commercial banks to absorb additional government debt. “They are very very very very far from any sort of formal QE. Instead, it’s more likely they pursue an SLR exemption allowing commercial banks to be the marginal buyer of debt,” Jauvin predicts. A formal return to QE, Jauvin concludes, would only materialize if financial and economic conditions deteriorate significantly, including a major collapse in risk assets and a drop in rates to near zero. In response to an X user asking if ending QT is bullish without necessarily indicating an immediate move to QE, Jauvin offered a succinct explanation: “Therefore think for the current liquidity backdrop it is marginally improving in that we will have the possible sequence of TGA drawdown into QT ending into potentially SLR exemption, and that’ll be it for now. QE shouldn’t even be in the current vocabulary of discourse as it stands.” Renowned crypto analyst Pentoshi agrees, highlighting a previously published forecast: “QT coming to an end… My guess, QT ends by start of Q3. With all that’s taking place currently Trump will likely end up forcing it. Was correct on QT guess in Nov 21. Let’s see.” He cited how the conclusion of quantitative easing in late 2021 coincided with the end of the crypto bull run. Now, market watchers are keenly observing whether the inverse—a potential termination of QT—could spark renewed momentum for Bitcoin and other digital assets. At press time, BTC traded at $97,208. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

While the Bitcoin price is hovering below the crucial resistance at $96,500, the liquidation heatmap on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair is sending powerful signals of a potential short squeeze to the upside. Analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) shared his insights alongside the attached liquidation heatmap, noting signs of significant liquidity pools forming both above and below Bitcoin’s current trading range. “What we’re seeing over the last couple of days is lining up perfectly with what I have been saying,” Kevin explained, referencing his earlier market calls. “Sweep liquidity towards 91K which we did yesterday. Maybe we take more maybe we don’t but overall I have never seen this much liquidity to the upside on the monthly time frame on #BTC.” According to Kevin, the data strongly suggests that large liquidity—where traders’ positions would be forced to liquidate—is now stacked around the 91K region and, more crucially, near the 111K mark. While the lower zone might still see occasional sweeps, it is the massive cluster of liquidity around 111K that has prompted him to forecast a potential move to that level. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $500,000: Standard Chartered Doubles Down On 2028 Target “There is more emotions in this market right then I have ever seen,”he continued. “Gurus are quitting X, Youtubers aren’t streaming or making content anymore, The comments are hateful and insulting every single day […] Meanwhile over here we are staying measured and calculated.” Kevin emphasizes that many market participants are fixated on altcoins rather than monitoring Bitcoin’s liquidity structure, overall market capitalization, and USDT dominance. He argues that traders’ narrow focus on individual altcoins, rather than these broader metrics, is causing them to miss critical signals. “The problem is everyone is hyper focused on the wrong thing and that is #Altcoins charts,”he said. “I’m literally giving you the playbook. Follow it.” What The Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap Tells Us A liquidation heatmap illustrates where large batches of leveraged positions—such as futures or margin trades—are most likely to be force-closed if the price reaches certain levels. When many traders place stop-losses or maintain heavily margined trades around similar price points, these zones often accumulate as “hot spots” on the heatmap. If price action nears these clusters, it can trigger a chain reaction: forced liquidations drive further price movement, which can then cascade into a faster squeeze or sell-off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Meets Fiscal Reality: Fidelity’s Timmer Predicts What’s Next In Kevin’s view, Bitcoin’s heatmap currently shows billions of dollars in potential liquidations concentrated at higher levels (111K) and a significant liquidity block below (around 91K). The presence of this deep liquidity on the upside has led Kevin to anticipate a “bigger relief rally” that might force out short positions en masse. “Now as we can see […] we have billions in liquidity to the upside at 111K. More than I have ever seen on the 1M time frame,” he remarked, emphasizing how unusual he finds this month-long concentration. “It would be totally fine and preferable if we swiped [the 91K area] first to build up even more liquidity to then start the real relief rally.” Alongside liquidity data, Kevin also cites sentiment indicators such as the Fear & Greed Index, currently reflecting a “fear” reading. From his standpoint, this environment suggests that the market’s emotional extremes—coupled with heavy positioning—could be setting the stage for a swift momentum shift higher, as negative sentiment often accompanies local bottoms. “You can tell this relief rally wants to get going but it’s just not totally there yet […] I see no reason to be overly bearish on this market. You guys need to calm down and stop being so angry. Stop being so soft.” At press time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Akademik, who called the Bitcoin price crash early has revealed his total predictions for the flagship crypto’s trajectory in the short and mid-term. Based on these predictions, BTC is set to experience a further crash which could send its price to as low as $80,000.  What Next For The Bitcoin Price  In a TradingView post, Akademik predicted that the Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $80,000 while revealing his short trading strategy for the flagship crypto going forward. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could pull back to the $80,000 range or even drop to as low as $60,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Action: Why The Next 30 Days Could Be A Game-Changer For The Market While outlining his trading strategy to keep shorting BTC, he said he expects this downtrend for the flagship crypto to continue. The analyst told traders that it is possible to enter at the trend level, which he highlighted on the charts if there is an activity in the feed or volumes will be substituted.  Indeed, the Bitcoin price currently boasts a bearish outlook as it dropped to the $93,000 range yesterday before bouncing back above the psychological $95,000 support level. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into the current price action and how the flagship crypto is at risk if dropping lower.  In an X post, he stated that the Bitcoin price faces a supply wall of 1.88 million BTC at $97,000, while the support at $94,500 is backed by just 695,000 BTC. Martinez remarked that this imbalance could play a key role in the next move. This indicates that there is a greater supply than demand for the flagship crypto, which puts it at risk of dropping lower before it rallies to new highs.  In another X post, the analyst also noted that a decline in Bitcoin’s mining activity has historically been followed by prolonged price corrections. This suggests BTC could still drop lower before another rally to new local highs.  BTC’s Long Term Outlook Is Still Bullish In an X post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto stated that the long-term trend for the Bitcoin price remains bullish. This came as he noted that Bitcoin is still in the consolidation range. He added that as long as BTC stays within the range, there is no clear short-term direction for the flagship crypto.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price In Trouble? Bearish Divergence That Led To Market Crash Last Cycle Returns Meanwhile, Martinez stated that the market is currently in the ‘depression’ stage of the market cycle. This suggests that the Bitcoin price is still bound to record one last pump before this cycle ends. The ‘disbelief’ stage usually comes after the depression stage, during which the flagship crypto enjoys a ‘sucker’s rally.’ At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In a note published on Tuesday, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, discusses how a shifting economic landscape could influence markets, central bank policy, and the trajectory of both Bitcoin and gold. With the S&P 500 hitting new highs and the so-called “Trump Trade” reversing course, Timmer offers nuanced insights into fiscal policy, inflation, and the role of risk assets in a “limbo” market environment. The Trump Effect Timmer observes that the first six weeks of 2025 have brought unexpected market moves and an unusually high “noise-to-signal ratio.” The dominant market expectation coming into the year—anticipating “higher yields, a stronger dollar, and outperforming US equities”—has abruptly flipped. He notes: “It seems so 2025 that the consensus trade of higher yields, a stronger dollar, and outperforming US equities has turned into the opposite.” Timmer highlights that Bitcoin, fresh off a year-end rally, remains on top of rolling three-month return rankings, followed closely by gold, Chinese equities, commodities, and European markets. At the lower end of the table, the US dollar and Treasuries are bringing up the rear. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $500,000: Standard Chartered Doubles Down On 2028 Target Despite the S&P 500’s record levels, Timmer calls this a “digestion period” following the post-election optimism. He explains that the market beneath the headline index is much less decisive. According to Timmer, the equal-weighted index remains on hold, with only 55% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. “Sentiment is bullish, credit spreads are narrow, the equity risk premium (ERP) is in the 10th decile, and the VIX is at 15. The market appears to be priced for success.” Timmer underscores that while earnings growth was robust at 11% in 2024, revisions appear lackluster, and there are open questions about what might happen if long-term rates climb towards 5% or beyond. One of the most critical pieces of Timmer’s analysis centers on Federal Reserve policy. He points to the recent CPI report, with a year-over-year core inflation figure of 3.5%, as a near-consensus indicator that the Fed will remain on pause. “It’s now all but unanimous that the Fed is on hold for some time to come. That’s exactly right, in my view. If neutral is 4%, I believe the Fed should be a smidge above that level, given the potential likelihood that ‘3 is the new 2.’” He warns about the possibility of a “premature pivot,” recalling the policy mistakes from the 1966–1968 period, when rate cuts happened too early, ultimately allowing inflation to gain a foothold. With the Fed apparently sidelined, Timmer believes the next market driver for interest rates will come from the long end of the curve. Specifically, he sees tension between two scenarios: one featuring endless deficit spending and rising term premiums—hitting equity valuations—and another emphasizing fiscal discipline, which would presumably rein in long-dated bond yields. Timmer also remarks that weekly jobless claims may come into sharper focus for bond markets, given how government spending under the new administration could influence employment data. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Final Dip Before $273,000? A Market Veteran Thinks So Timmer points out a potential bullish pattern—a head-and-shoulders bottom—in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. Though he stops short of calling it a definitive shift, he notes that commodities remain in a broader secular uptrend and could see renewed investor interest if inflation pressures stay elevated or fiscal conditions remain loose. Gold, he notes, has been “a big winner” in recent years, outperforming many skeptics’ expectations: “Since 2020, gold has produced almost the same return as the S&P 500 while having a lower volatility. In my view, gold remains an essential component of a diversified portfolio in a regime in which bonds might remain impaired.” Timmer sees gold testing the critical $3,000 level amid a global uptick in money supply and a decline in real yields. Historically, gold has shown a strong negative correlation with real yields, though Timmer believes the metal’s strength of late may also reflect fiscal rather than monetary dynamics—particularly, geopolitical demand from central banks in China and Russia. Bitcoin Vs. Gold According to Timmer, the outperformance of both gold and Bitcoin has “sparked a lot of conversation about monetary inflation.” However, he draws a distinction between the “quantity of money” (the money supply) and the “price of money” (price inflation). “The point of this exercise is to show that the growth in traditional asset prices over time can’t just be explained away by monetary debasement (which is a favorite pastime of some bitcoiners),” he writes. Timmer’s charts suggest that while nominal M2 and nominal GDP have moved in near lockstep for over a century, consumer price inflation (CPI) has lagged somewhat behind money supply growth. He cautions that adjusting asset prices solely against M2 may produce misleading conclusions. Still, his analysis finds that both Bitcoin and gold have strong correlations to M2, albeit in different ways: “It’s interesting that there’s a linear correlation between M2 and gold, but a power curve between M2 and Bitcoin. Different players on the same team.” Timmer highlights gold’s long-run performance since 1970, noting that it has effectively kept pace—or even exceeded—the value created by many bond portfolios. He sees gold’s role as a “hedge against bonds,” especially if sovereign debt markets remain pressured by fiscal deficits and higher long-term rates. Timmer’s note underscores that Bitcoin’s strong performance cannot be seen in isolation from gold or the broader macroeconomic environment. With yields in flux and policymakers grappling with deficits, investors may be forced to reassess the traditional 60/40 portfolio model. He emphasizes that while past expansions of the money supply have often spurred inflation, the relationship is not always one-to-one. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise could, in Timmer’s view, reflect a market perception that fiscal concerns—not just monetary policy—are driving asset prices. “And as you can see from the dotted orange line and the green line, Bitcoin has added the same amount of value that overnight money took over 300 years to create,” he concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $95,700. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has reaffirmed his standout price forecast for Bitcoin. Kendrick, who envisions BTC hitting $500,000 by 2028, bases his conviction on evidence of increasing institutional involvement — specifically pointing to sovereign wealth funds, state pension funds, and other large-scale investors. Sovereign Wealth Funds Enter The Bitcoin Fray According to a new report from Standard Chartered cited by The Block, Kendrick sees growing signs that government-backed investment vehicles are ramping up their interest in Bitcoin. This view is reinforced by Abu Dhabi’s recent disclosure of a 4,700 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) via its sovereign wealth fund. Related Reading: Bitcoin Presents A ‘Generational Opportunity’ As Global Turmoil Intensifies, Says Bitwise Executive “While this is small for now, we would expect the size to increase over time and, indeed, for other sovereigns to also start buying,” Kendrick wrote in the Tuesday report. He explained that Abu Dhabi’s move marks a strategic shift and could presage broader participation from other wealth funds looking to diversify their portfolios with BTC. Kendrick’s confidence is partly rooted in Form 13F filings — quarterly reports that institutional managers overseeing at least $100 million in assets are required to file with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Reviewing data from the fourth quarter of 2024, Kendrick noted a compelling trend. “The 13F filings for Q4 show that process is underway…It is happening,” he said in an email to The Block. In Standard Chartered’s analysis, Q4 data revealed that while hedge funds maintained their lead in Bitcoin purchases, banks — which began buying in Q3 of last year — also ramped up their positions. Kendrick drew parallels between an earlier stage in Bitcoin’s market evolution, dominated by retail investors, and the more recent era, which saw hedge funds jump aboard through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Now, the spotlight appears to be broadening further to include state investment managers and central banks. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Big Breakout? Fed’s “Not QE, QE” Just Flipped The Switch “This gives us comfort to say that even if buying by Strategy… [formerly MicroStrategy] slows down dramatically (it has bought a staggering 227k BTC since the US election, more than 1% of the ever-to-exist supply), we think other buyers are waiting to step in,” Kendrick noted. The mention of MicroStrategy underscores just how significant one private company’s bitcoin holdings can be. Yet Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests that other large, patient pools of capital might absorb future supply, thus supporting higher prices over the long term. Among the institutions, Kendrick highlights the State of Wisconsin Investment Board and the State of Michigan Department of the Treasury. However, he also points to central banks as potential new participants. In the report, Kendrick references the Czech National Bank, which has considered allocating up to 5% of its €140 billion in reserves into bitcoin, and notes that the Swiss National Bank is in the early stages of contemplating a similar move. These developments could further bolster bitcoin’s legitimacy as a store of value on par with more traditional asset classes. “As institutional access to bitcoin improves and volatility declines, we expect more portfolios to migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight Bitcoin starting point,” Kendrick concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $95,581. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Real Vision, Raoul Pal has doubled down on his bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), calling these cryptocurrencies “the greatest macro trade of all time.” Despite recent fluctuations and short-term volatility, Pal argues that the market is positioned for an explosive breakout, which investors should prepare for. Macro Set-Up For Bitcoin And Ethereum Surge While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana face a downtrend due to rising volatility, Pal remains steadfast in his optimistic projection, believing that the market is in the greatest macro target of all time. The Real Vision CEO shared a series of thread posts on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting technical indicators and macro factors that would positively influence Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms Double Bottom After Crash, Is A Bounce To $112,000 ATH Possible? Sharing a logarithmic weekly chart of Bitcoin, Pal indicated that Bitcoin had experienced a long-term price uptrend line since 2020, showing a distinct pattern of higher lows. Currently, Bitcoin is moving within a tight trading range, which Pal believes could be bullish, as a strong break above the resistance line could trigger a major run. Similarly, the Real Vision Co-founder presented a price chart of Ethereum, highlighting that ETH is currently consolidated within a symmetrical triangle, signaling the potential for a price breakout. Typically, a symmetrical triangle pattern is seen as a bullish signal for ETH, but considering its recent underperformance compared to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Solana, a strong bullish breakout remains skeptical. Looking at the symmetrical triangle, a breakout from the upper trendline could see the Ethereum price skyrocketing to $4,000 or even higher based on Pal’s chart. Additionally, the Solana price, which has been seeing varying momentum lately, has tested a key horizontal resistance multiple times, forming a strong accumulation base. Historically such consolidation phases tend to precede explosive rallies, provided that broader market trends remain favorable.  In his post, Pal encourages traders to “zoom out” , likely suggesting a shift from short-term fluctuations to long term cycles. He warned against excessive leverage and risk-taking to avoid liquidation in volatile conditions. He also urges traders to remain patient, watching how the market unfolds and preparing ahead of a potential bullish surge.  Market Volatility Raises Fear In his analysis, Pal suggested that the broader crypto market is currently plagued by fear and panic, as volatility rises and crypto prices experience a downtrend. He explains that a significant portion of crypto investors or traders are currently bearish.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals When Bitcoin Price Will Reach $180,000 This could be due to the fact that following Bitcoin’s price crash to below $100,000 after the announcement of Donald Trump’s tariff plans, many altcoins also declined severely, with Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Solana being among the top losers.  Due to this market change, many in the market had sold off their tokens to avoid further losses. Despite this bearish trend, Pal maintains an optimistic outlook, expecting a strong surge for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The long-awaited FTX creditor payouts are set to begin today, February 18 after over two years of bankruptcy. This payment, which is the first batch, is targeted towards targeting smaller creditors. Nonetheless, the payout could have a few effects on the crypto industry, especially if creditors receive payouts in crypto. A crypto analyst, Excavo, has shared his perspective on TradingView, highlighting the potential liquidity shifts that could follow FTX’s creditor payouts and the broader implications for Bitcoin and altcoins. FTX Payouts Kick-Off: How Does This Affect The Crypto Market? FTX has confirmed that creditor repayments will commence on February 18, starting with those in the convenience class category of creditors with claims of $50,000 or less. These creditors will receive full repayment plus an additional 9% annual interest accrued since November 2022, totaling approximately $1.2 billion in payouts.  Related Reading: FTX Investors Blindsided By Distribution Rumors, When Is The $16 Billion Coming? For creditors with larger claims exceeding $50,000, distributions will begin in Q2 2025, with FTX planning to disburse $7 billion as part of a larger $16 billion payout in total. As noted by Excavo, the significance of these payouts extends beyond individual investors, as the redistribution of these funds could reshape liquidity flows across the crypto market. If creditors receive payouts in crypto and decide to sell, it could create downward pressure on the market. However, most repayments are expected in cash, and it is now left to see how investors will reinvest them into the market. The first thought is that most of these repayments will go back into Bitcoin, which would trigger a Bitcoin price rally. However, with billions set to enter the market, a significant portion could flow into altcoins, especially if Ethereum staking ETFs receive regulatory approval later in 2025. This aligns with speculation that an altcoin ETF wave could drive capital into other altcoins like Cardano, Dogecoin, XRP, and most especially Solana. Excavo’s analysis noted that the lack of liquidity rotation into altcoins has left many underappreciated, but this could change if a substantial portion of FTX repayments is redirected into the broader crypto market and not Bitcoin. Will Bitcoin Crash Or Rally In Response To FTX Repayments? The total FTX repayment to creditors is expected to be in excess of $16 billion, with most being cash repayments. The injection of billions of dollars could cause fresh buying pressure if reinvested into the market. You could argue that this is the general consensus among bullish investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Action: Why The Next 30 Days Could Be A Game-Changer For The Market For example, some members of the Reddit crypto community have noted that they are eager to reinvest their FTX payouts into the crypto industry.  “It’s all getting degen’d straight back into crypto,” one Reddit user commented.  With Bitcoin at the forefront of recent inflows into the market, the majority of the payout could as well easily go back into Bitcoin. Crypto analyst Excavo thinks otherwise, noting that most of the FTX repayments flowing back in will go into the altcoin market.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,300, down by 0.75% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In a post shared on X with his 700,000 followers, market veteran CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) outlined what he believes could be one of Bitcoin’s final major pullbacks before an eventual surge to a six-figure price target. In his own words: “BTC LAST DIPS BEFORE $273K? Here’s why:” He backed up this claim with a series of concise bullet points covering market trends, technical signals, and historical data. Last Chance to Buy Bitcoin Cheap? CRYPTO₿IRB’s analysis begins with a description of the “Bull Market” environment, noting that both the 200-week and 50-week moving averages are rising. These long-term trends often reflect a broader shift in market sentiment. He also references the latest data on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, pointing to total assets under management (AUM) of $121 billion, alongside a substantial trading volume of $746 billion. Another key metric highlighted is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), which he places at 0.54, suggesting that more traders are in profit than those at a loss. He observes a seven-week correlation to the S&P 500 at 0.25, signaling only a moderate linkage between Bitcoin and the traditional equity market over that period. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Big Breakout? Fed’s “Not QE, QE” Just Flipped The Switch The analyst then addresses the “Daily Trend,” indicating that he sees Bitcoin oscillating within a range of $90,000 to $110,000 for now. He situates the 200-day Simple Moving Average at about $80,200 and emphasizes that this figure is trending upward. CRYPTO₿IRB also explains that the proprietary 200-day BPRO indicator sits at approximately $94,400, which he views as another sign of strengthening momentum, despite a 50-day RSI at 42. An RSI below 50 often points to cooled market momentum, yet he notes that volatility appears stalled for the moment, with an Average True Range of $3,360 suggesting that price swings have softened compared to previous periods. Turning to his “Trade Setup,” CRYPTO₿IRB highlights that he sees certain bearish configurations on his 12-hour BPRO CTF and HTF Trailer indicators. He describes market conditions as choppy, with resistance appearing around the $99,700 to $103,100 range. This implies that if Bitcoin fails to break above that resistance level, short-term pullbacks or sideways activity could continue until buyers regain control. Regarding “Sentiment & Miners,” the analyst points to a Fear & Greed Index reading of 51, a level considered neutral. He remarks that fear typically spikes just before key breakouts, implying that the absence of extreme fear may indicate a more sustained climb once resistance zones are cleared. He also classifies the ongoing market cycle phase as “belief,” suggesting that investors remain cautiously optimistic without the euphoria that often signals major tops. Another crucial factor is miners’ profitability, which he estimates remains healthy above $88,400, a threshold that can discourage excessive miner selling and help reinforce price floors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Presents A ‘Generational Opportunity’ As Global Turmoil Intensifies, Says Bitwise Executive His commentary on “Seasonality” underscores the historical performance of Bitcoin. He notes that February has seen an average gain of 15.85% with positive returns in seven out of ten years. Overall, first quarters tend to deliver around a 25% average gain. From 2010 to 2024, Bitcoin’s annualized return stands at roughly 145%, reflecting the impressive long-term growth that has characterized its history. CRYPTO₿IRB encourages traders to “BTFD Feb–March,” which is short for “buy the dip,” implying that he expects attractive entry points to emerge before the market potentially rallies again. In explaining the “Macro Top,” he looks to the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that compares market value to realized value. He warns that an MVRV Z-Score above 7.0 traditionally signals an overheated market. Currently at 2.43, the score remains well below that danger zone, which leads him to project a possible peak above $273,000 (2.88x from $95.3k). He states: “Bitcoin will start forming top over $273k+. According to MVRV Z-Score, the market peaked only when MVRV pushed & stayed for weeks above 7.0 (2.8X from $97.5k). It’s the pre-rich phase.” At press time, BTC traded at $95,553. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A fresh infusion of liquidity from the US Treasury General Account (TGA) is making waves among market observers, with some analysts speculating this could be a key trigger for Bitcoin’s next major move. While the Federal Reserve continues its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, the TGA’s latest cash injection—pegged at up to $842 billion—has sparked debate over whether we are witnessing a stealth version of quantitative easing, sometimes referred to as “Not QE, QE.” Fed’s “Not QE, QE” In a post shared on X, macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) offered a breakdown of how this dynamic is playing out: “‘Not QE, QE’ has officially started. A liquidity injection that could total up to $842bn from the US Treasury General Account began this week. Functionally, this is similar to Quantitative Easing, but on a temporary basis.” The backdrop for this liquidity surge is the binding $36 trillion US debt limit. With no new debt issuance allowed until a fresh debt ceiling agreement is reached, the Treasury is forced to rely on funds from the TGA to cover government spending obligations. This draws down the TGA balance—$842 billion as of Tuesday, February 11—effectively injecting liquidity into financial markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Network Activity Is Declining — Impact On Price? According to Tomas, the Treasury’s “train” of TGA spending started in earnest on Wednesday, February 12: “From my understanding, the official ‘debt ceiling-induced’ Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown began on Wednesday February 12… This train is now in motion and will not stop until lawmakers come to a new debt ceiling agreement.” He projects that the first segment of this process will likely involve around $600 billion in injections between February 12 and April 11. After the April tax season, a temporary replenishment of the TGA could occur, but until a new debt ceiling deal is reached, the Treasury will presumably continue to spend down existing cash reserves. While some observers are hailing this development as a de facto round of QE, Tomas underscores that the final net impact depends on two critical drains on liquidity: The Federal Reserve is rolling off assets at about $55 billion per month, which Tomas expects to continue at least through the next FOMC meeting in March. Over two months, that translates to an estimated $110 billion liquidity reduction. With the Treasury issuing fewer T-bills due to debt-ceiling constraints—termed “net negative T-bill issuance”—money market funds may have fewer short-term government securities to buy. This scarcity could prompt them to park more cash in the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility, which effectively drains liquidity from the broader market. Tomas notes: “This may incentivize money market funds to park cash in the Fed’s Reverse Repo, potentially pushing this chart up… Reverse Repo usage increasing would be a liquidity drain, as money would be moving away from markets and into the Reverse Repo facility at the Fed.” Overall, the true scale of the TGA-based stimulus remains uncertain. Last week, net injections into the system were estimated at $50 billion, a figure that could fluctuate in the weeks ahead as QT and Reverse Repo demand evolve. Another key piece of the puzzle is the ongoing political deadlock over the debt ceiling. Despite calls for bipartisan cooperation, divisions within the narrow Republican majority—combined with broad Democratic opposition—complicate prospects for a swift resolution. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is ‘Primed For A Breakout’: Is BTC Heading For $150,000 Rally? House Republicans recently put forward a plan tying “trillions of dollars” in tax cuts to raising the debt ceiling. However, the measure’s passage is far from assured, as deeply conservative members object to any debt limit increase on principle. Past increases have typically required cross-party support, indicating a potentially prolonged standoff. “This comes down on the shoulders of House Speaker Mike Johnson, as he attempts to rally lawmakers behind the plan,” Tomas notes, reflecting widespread skepticism about whether sufficient votes can be secured. Will Bitcoin Benefit? For Bitcoin traders, these liquidity ebbs and flows often correlate with broader risk appetite—Bitcoin has historically seen upward price movements during periods of loose monetary policy and liquidity injections. Although the Federal Reserve has signaled no immediate halt to QT, the TGA drawdown’s near-term flood of cash could still buoy risk assets, including Bitcoin. Precisely how much of this “Not QE, QE” trickles into Bitcoin remains to be seen. Yet, for market participants watching daily net liquidity metrics, the interplay between TGA drawdowns, QT, and Reverse Repo usage has become a central storyline. As the standoff in Washington continues, the Bitcoin space will be monitoring every uptick and downtick in the Fed’s liquidity charts—hoping it might just flip the switch on Bitcoin’s next big breakout. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $96,424. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The crypto market has been experiencing significant volatility, with the Bitcoin price leading the charge. Over the past month, BTC has been trading sideways, recording declines that have pushed its value below the $100,000 mark. As analysts speculate about the cryptocurrency’s next major move, recent data suggests that a classic Flag Pole pattern is beginning to emerge on the Bitcoin price chart. The crypto analyst who has identified this pattern has shared a bullish roadmap prediction for Bitcoin, projecting that it could rise to a new all-time high above $120,000. In a TradingView analysis, crypto expert Weslad expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future trajectory, projecting that it could soar as high as $120,843 in this bull cycle. The analyst highlighted the current formation of a classic Flag Pole pattern on the BTC price chart. The emergence of this distinct technical pattern in the Bitcoin structure has sparked an enthusiastic response from analysts, as they anticipate a massive breakout to the upside.  Roadmap To $120,000 Bitcoin Price Target According to the TradingView analyst’s chart, the Bitcoin price faced a rejection at an external supply area after experiencing an impressive 27% rally from a strong external demand zone between $$85,300 and $86,800. This rejection was a critical moment for the cryptocurrency, as it sparked the creation of what many experts call a perfect Bull Flag formation.  Related Reading: Bitcoin $166,000 Target Still In Play? The Extension That Determines Where Price Goes Next This bull flag pattern is typically known as a bullish continuation signal during an uptrend. It represents a halt in a cryptocurrency’s upward movement before the trend resumes. In the case of Bitcoin, Weslad suggests that its recent rejection is not viewed as a downturn but rather as a smart money accumulation zone designed to shake out weaker hands who panic during market declines.  Despite its pullback, Bitcoin’s recent price action has demonstrated a strong resilience in an immediate demand zone between $91,000 and $95,000. The analyst also describes this correction as a “fake down,” noting that it was due to liquidity engineering. This strategic liquidity grab allows large players to accumulate BTC at favourable prices before the next significant move upward. While noting the Flag Pole formation, Weslad also highlights a recent breakout from a Descending Channel that has previously restricted Bitcoin’s price movements. This channel breakout signals the possible resurgence of Bitcoin’s bullishness, with the analyst predicting an initial surge to $108,089.  If Bitcoin can maintain a positive momentum, the pathway to an ultimate Flag Pole target of $120,843 becomes plausible. Monitoring Breakout Signals While Weslad projects a new all-time high for Bitcoin at $120,843, the analyst also emphasizes important signals that could indicate an imminent breakout. He revealed that if Bitcoin can successfully flip the aforementioned external supply zone between $108,000 and $109,000, the cryptocurrency could see its price skyrocket to new highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price In Trouble? Bearish Divergence That Led To Market Crash Last Cycle Returns At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is $96,142, marking a 2.25% decline over the past week. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com