THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

In his testimony on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes for another round of quantitative easing (QE), reiterating that “QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero” and that the Fed remains “a long ways away from ending QT.” This stance challenges the notion that a quick pivot to aggressive easing might buoy Bitcoin and the entire crypto market as it did in past cycles. End Of The Bull Run For Bitcoin And Altcoins? Macro analyst Alex Krüger posted on X that “we are ages away from QE,” stressing that some market participants needed to hear Powell’s stance clearly. Another commentator, Tagoo, noted there is “no need for QE, only for discontinuation of QT,” prompting Krüger to respond that it may take “a few more months” for QT to wind down. Felix Jauvin, the host of the On the Margin podcast, commented via X: “For the QE is coming soon dreamers, I hope you just heard what powell said “QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero”. You don’t want zero rates and QE. That means a LOT of pain has to happen in the interim. QE isn’t coming to save your overleveraged alt bags anytime soon.” Jauvin believes the US economy has shifted from a period of stagnation to a more fundamental growth phase. According to him, “we can still see bull markets and a bid in risk assets without these monetary plumbing tricks,” since he views this as a healthier, productivity-led environment—one he calls “an economic golden age.” Dan McArdle reminded followers that markets can remain risk-on “with a decent economy and some credit expansion.” He cautioned the crypto community against anchoring expectations solely to zero-interest-rate policies and QE, suggesting that a steady economy could still support Bitcoin’s upside. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), framed Powell’s comments within “The Everything Code,” contending that QE is only one part of the global liquidity picture. While the Fed might not pivot to QE soon, Bittel pointed out that other factors, such as actions by the People’s Bank of China, private credit creation, or shifts in the Treasury General Account, can also inject liquidity into markets. “The Fed’s got other tools, and they’ve been working with the Treasury since Covid to smooth out the QT impact through the TGA and RRP,” Bittel remarked. He reminded traders that “it’s not just the Fed in this equation” and noted that Chinese rates heading toward zero heightens the possibility of China rolling out some form of QE. “Back in 2017, the Fed was a small player in the liquidity game. In fact, the Fed was doing QT and hiking rates all year, yet risk assets still flourished and Bitcoin did a 23x following the sharp but short 28% correction in January,” he added. Crypto analyst Kevin also argues that Bitcoin may not strictly require QE to thrive. However, he pointed out that “we have also never seen a macro cycle top in BTC Dominance” during active QT, casting doubt on the likelihood of a robust altcoin season anytime soon. “I still believe my analysis tells me sometime in Q2 it will end but if we take Powell at face value then altcoins season callers everyday for the last 2 years will continue to look more lost and wrong then they already are and have been,” Kevin stated. At press time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) surged above 64% this week, its highest level since March 2021, sparking debate over an impending short squeeze that could send its price skyward. The stark warning comes from Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, who took to X on Monday to outline what he views as a decisive turning point for Bitcoin versus the rest of the digital asset market. A Historic Break In Bitcoin’s Correlation Patterns In his post, Consorti contends that Bitcoin’s recent price action marks the first time in its 16-year history that both its price and market dominance have risen in tandem. Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance would rise initially, only to wane as speculation spilled into altcoins. However, Consorti states: “This is the first time in history that bitcoin’s share of the total digital asset market is rising while its price is climbing. In past cycles, retail-driven speculation pushed bitcoin’s price up and later funneled money into altcoins, causing bitcoin dominance to decline. That dynamic is gone.” According to Consorti, the days when a broad altcoin rally would follow Bitcoin’s initial surge appear to be over. Bitcoin dominance recently touched 64%—its highest level since February 2021. Consorti attributes the phenomenon to a significant change in market participation: “This cycle, institutions, sovereigns, and long-term holders are leading the charge, increasingly allocating capital exclusively to bitcoin while largely ignoring the rest of the market.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Neutral On Top Exchanges: What Happened Last Time Last week’s market turbulence resulted in what Consorti calls “the single-largest liquidation event in ‘crypto’ history,” citing data that more than $2.16 billion in positions were wiped out within 24 hours. Ethereum led the liquidation figures with $573 million, and the largest single liquidation—a $25.6 million ETH/BTC order—occurred on Binance. “As you might have guessed, ETH/BTC is not having a great time,” Consorti notes, pointing out that the ETH/BTC pair is trading at 0.026—its lowest level in over three years. He argues these liquidations highlight the precarious nature of heavily leveraged altcoin markets: “All of it wiped out in an instant when price moved against them. This wasn’t your standard technical correction, it marks the start of an extinction-level event for altcoins.” The “Altcoin Casino” In Crisis Consorti’s analysis suggests that what he dubs “the altcoin casino” is now collapsing. He points to failed narratives around popular projects—Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi among them—that have struggled to maintain investor confidence: “Altcoins have survived purely on narratives. Each cycle, a new batch of narratives emerged, promising world-changing innovation. None of them lasted.” He contrasts this with Bitcoin’s core value proposition, which, in his view, requires no marketing: “Bitcoin, on the other hand, doesn’t need a narrative. It doesn’t need marketing or hype. It exists, and it thrives because it was built to do one thing—protect wealth in a world of perpetual monetary expansion.” Consorti also references Ethereum’s “merge” and its supposed deflationary design, pointing out that since the upgrade, ETH’s total supply has increased by 13,516 ETH—undermining the “ultra-sound money” claim. Related Reading: Bitcoin In 2025: History Could Repeat With A 2017-Style Surge Adding a policy dimension to the market’s transformation, Consorti highlights a statement from Senator John Boozman during the White House Crypto Working Group’s first press conference: “Some digital assets are commodities, some are securities.” This, he suggests, is a tacit acknowledgment that Bitcoin stands apart from other digital assets. In a further development, Consorti cites a comment from White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks, who mentioned the group is evaluating the viability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—a shift from the previous “National Digital Asset Stockpile” terminology used under a Trump-era executive order. Consorti frames this as a “major development” that signals growing recognition of Bitcoin’s unique properties: “This language shift is monumental. A few years ago, the US government was openly hostile toward bitcoin. Today, they’re discussing stockpiling it.” Amid this upheaval, Consorti suggests that the next dramatic move in Bitcoin could be an explosive short squeeze. Funding rates on perpetual futures, he notes, have gone “deeply negative,” reminiscent of when Bitcoin traded near $23,000 in August 2023. This implies a tilt in leverage toward traders betting against Bitcoin—a position that could rapidly unwind: “While last week’s leverage flush wiped out most long positions, the next major move could be the opposite—an explosive rally fueled by forced short liquidations.” Should the market turn against these short-sellers, the forced buy-backs could drive the price higher with unusual speed and volume—especially if overall liquidity remains thin. He concluded, “Traders who overextended their leverage to short bitcoin will eventually have to buy it back when the price moves against them, just like overleveraged longs were wiped out last week. Bitcoin is coiled. The stage is being set for a potential short squeeze. The longer this dynamic of short dominance persists, the greater the risk of a forced shirt liquidation cascade that sends bitcoin’s price higher with force.” At press time, BTC.D stood at 61.19%. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto pundit Crypto Michael, who correctly called the Bitcoin price surge from $15,400 to $100,000, has revealed what is next for the flagship crypto. Based on his revelation, Bitcoin still has enough room in this market cycle before its price peaks.  What Next For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Crypto Michael stated that when the Bitcoin price breaks $108,000, it will ignite a parabolic rally of immense proportions. The analyst seemed confident in this happening as he revealed how he had literally called every Bitcoin move since the $15,000 bottom to perfection. He also noted that his target since BTC was at $15,000 was the $108,000 trendline, which was hit.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Enters Ascending Phase After Cup And Handle Formation At $105,000, Here’s The Next Target However, he believes that the Bitcoin price isn’t done yet, and he advised market participants to be ready for the parabolic rally that could come once BTC breaks $108,000. Although the crypto pundit believes Bitcoin has more room to rally to the upside, he failed to reveal how high the flagship crypto could go once it breaks above $108,000.  Meanwhile, in another X post, Crypto Michael predicted that the next leg up should begin soon for the Bitcoin price, a move that could lead to a break above the $108,000 resistance. The analyst suggested that this move will likely happen soon, noting that his Bitcoin fractal has played out to perfection so far.  Indeed, the Bitcoin price could be ready for its next leg up. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that capital inflows into the crypto market are starting to pick up. $6 billion has been added in the past week, which the analyst noted is a sign of renewed momentum. The first step would be for Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 price level, which could lead to higher prices.  $116,000 Could Be The Next Stop For BTC Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto suggested that $116,000 could be the next stop for the Bitcoin price. In an X post, he revealed that the asset is currently forming a symmetrical triangle. The analyst added that a breakout to the upside could send the flagship crypto to $116,000. The analyst had before now predicted that BTC could rally to as high as $180,000 in this market cycle. Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle also suggested that the Bitcoin price could rally to as high as $116,000 on its next leg up. He noted that BTC’s local downtrend had been broken and retested. He then raised the possibility of the flagship crypto reclaiming the $100,000 level. His accompanying chart showed that $108,000 would be the resistance level to break if BTC reclaims $100,000. Once it breaks $108,000, then a rally to $116,000 looks imminent. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Charts Roadmap To $117,000, What You Should Know At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $98,300, up over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In a video titled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,” Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) laid out a sweeping perspective on where growth and inflation trends appear to be heading, why the upcoming cycle looks more akin to 2017 than 2021, and how Bitcoin could be primed for notable upside if its historical relationship with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index and global liquidity holds true. Forcast: Bitcoin Macro Summer Is Coming Bittel explained that macro “summer” is the dominant regime he sees unfolding throughout 2025, meaning growth momentum is picking up while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to avoid overtightening. He underscored that “the business cycle still chugs along,” pointing to improving global manufacturing data and to the fact that more countries have been shifting into expansion territory. Although slight fluctuations persist in some indicators, including pockets that briefly resemble a slowdown, Bittel remains confident that these do not mark the onset of a new macro “fall” with sustained growth deceleration and rising inflation. He instead suggests these headwinds will prove short-lived, given an overall environment in which global financial conditions are loosening. Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Spikes On Major Exchanges — Time To Buy? He highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the recent weakening of the dollar as factors that will allow “more cowbell” from central banks. China’s bond yields have also collapsed, which Bittel sees as a major signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating. He described this combination as an echo of 2017, a year when a softer dollar and lower interest rates contributed to an upswing in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. Turning to inflation, Bittel dissected why shelter and other service-related costs are such significant laggards. He observed that more than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which “typically lags home prices by around 17 months,” and pointed out that shelter inflation is still keeping official CPI numbers elevated. He expects this dynamic to give central banks leeway to ease monetary policy further once they see the data turning down. While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, might push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasizes that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will likely retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling the ongoing economic rebound. Related Reading: US Bitcoin Reserve Will Lead To ‘Pain In Under 2 Years,’ Warns Arthur Hayes In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel zeroed in on the business cycle’s role in driving outsized price movements. He recalled that when the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the leading cryptocurrency proceeded to rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture abruptly topped out as soon as ISM and liquidity peaked, cutting short the cycle and capping Bitcoin’s run at roughly an 8x move from its initial pivot out of recession. Today’s backdrop looks materially different. Bittel noted that “the ISM is just now moving above 50,” which contrasts with the late 2020–early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s almost in one breath. He added that “if we’re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity,” Bitcoin’s path could more closely resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021. Although Bittel did not offer a precise price target for Bitcoin, he referenced the historical precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 once the cycle gained traction. His caution was clear—he stated repeatedly that these moves are never guaranteed and that “I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x,” but he also stressed that in every prior crypto run, persistent strength in the business cycle proved to be “the magic gift that keeps on giving.” He believes the foundation has been set for an extended upswing, yet reminded everyone that 20–30% drawdowns are inevitable even during powerful rallies. He further noted that “once you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going,” and reiterated that liquidity, particularly from China, could become an even bigger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses. Bittel reinforced the point, saying that “historically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we’re in macro summer.” He also highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial conditions, remain in place, though he reminded viewers to expect corrections and remain patient. In his words, “it’s never a straight line,” and it can feel like “the end of the world” in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the ongoing slide in the dollar, he believes the runway for Bitcoin—and other risk assets—still appears relatively long. While Bittel’s presentation also addressed broader market segments, such as commodities and cyclical equities, Bitcoin received special focus. In explaining why GMI’s macro framework still signals optimism, Bittel emphasized that “dips are for buying,” provided that investors keep a close eye on signs of any deeper structural slowdown. He stressed that “no one should forget that if you sign up for Bitcoin, you’re signing up for volatility,” but with the business cycle only just beginning its ascent and liquidity conditions gaining traction, there may be ample room for Bitcoin to move beyond its previous peaks if the data continue to favor cyclical expansion. At press time, BTC traded at $97,710. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As expectations of an altcoin season mount, a new technical analysis of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) draws striking parallels between the 2021 and 2025 market cycles, aiming to determine whether altcoins are on the brink of another bull run. Historically, Bitcoin Dominance has been a key indicator in predicting the likelihood of an altcoin, as a decline in BTC.D often signals a shift in investors’ focus on alternative cryptocurrencies.  Historical Bitcoin Dominance Signal Possible Altcoin Season Crypto analyst Luca on X (formerly Twitter) is questioning whether history is repeating itself as similar past market trends emerge in this current cycle. The analyst shared two parallel charts, tracking the Bitcoin Dominance market capitalization and the start of the altcoin season.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dominance And Altcoin Season: What The Sudden Volatility Means For The Market The chart compared the BTC.D market cap in the 2021 and 2025 cycles, revealing an eerily similar pattern that unfolded during the bull market in 2021. Back then, many investors had anticipated the start of the altcoin season immediately after BTC.D hit a high-timeframe resistance. However, to the surprise of the broader market, Bitcoin’s dominance deviated above the resistance, leading to a mass sell-off in altcoins.  Fast-forward to 2025, Luca believes this narrative is playing out again. As BTC.D dropped below the 61% resistance zone, the market hoped for a rotation into altcoins. Instead, BTC.D surged even higher, deviating again and triggering a mass capitulation of altcoins.  Luca’s Bitcoin Dominance chart shows the resistance zone where BTC.D struggled to break through in 2021 and 2025. In both cycles, BTC.D deviated from this resistance level. However, after the shift in 2021, Bitcoin dominance fell sharply to the green zone between 58% and 60%. This zone corresponded with a major rally that sparked the start of the altcoin season.  In the 2025 BTC.D chart, Luca highlighted the next green zone as around 54.56%. If historical trends repeat, BTC.D may drop to this low level and potentially trigger a similar rally to kickstart this cycle’s anticipated altcoin season.  At the moment, all eyes are on BTC.D as the market awaits its next move, which could define the fate of altcoins in this bull market. The analyst notes that the key question remains: will history repeat itself, or will the 2025 cycle run a new course?  Analyst Says 2025 Altcoin Season Is Out Of Reach In another X post, a crypto analyst, Brucer, argues that the altcoin season may not occur during this cycle. He outlines three primary reasons for his foreboding analysis, underscoring that during past cycles, the altcoin season was driven by major events like the 2017 ICO boom. However, each cycle varies in intensity and may not repeat the same conditions that led to past altcoin seasons. Related Reading: Is Altcoin Season Here Already? VanEck Answers As Bitcoin Price Struggles Below $100,000 Secondly, Brucer noted that altcoins are currently struggling to regain previous highs while Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise, now sitting above a 60% market cap. Lastly, the analyst suggested that an altcoin season 2025 is unlikely unless significant macroeconomic changes occur. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin continued dominance has remained a defining feature of the current market cycle, with the leading crypto asset receiving most of the inflows into the market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance over the entire market is at 60.3% after a 4% increase in the past 24 hours. Notably, crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed to the 71% dominance level as an important threshold for crypto investors still awaiting an altcoin season. Reaching 71% Is Critical For An Altcoin Season The Bitcoin dominance chart, which tracks Bitcoin’s market capitalization in relation to the entire crypto market, has consistently risen throughout this cycle, even during periods of price corrections. Bitcoin’s dominance has been fueled by institutional demand after the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and market dynamics favoring BTC as a potential reserve for countries.  Related Reading: Altcoin Season Paused Forever? What The Rising Bitcoin Dominance Says Will Happen A direct consequence of this prolonged Bitcoin dominance has been the sluggish performance of the altcoin market. Although some altcoins like Solana and XRP have managed to outperform Bitcoin for brief periods, the capital has consistently rotated back into Bitcoin, preventing a sustained altcoin market breakout. However, some analysts believe a significant shift could be very close, with Bitcoin dominance now sitting at a multi-year high. One such analyst is an analyst known as Rekt Capital on social media platform X. His analysis reveals a historical pattern where altcoin seasons emerge whenever Bitcoin dominance reaches a key threshold and subsequently faces rejection. According to a Bitcoin dominance chart that accompanied his analysis, Bitcoin’s dominance has been rejected around the 71% level three successive times in the past. Interestingly, each rejection has been marked by Bitcoin’s dominance falling over multiple monthly candles, as altcoins outperformed Bitcoin throughout those months.  The most recent occurrence of this pattern was during the 2021 bull market. At the time, Bitcoin dominance briefly spiked above 72% before reversing course. Once rejected, it entered a five-month downtrend, ultimately stabilizing around the 40% level as altcoins took control of the market. Will 71% Trigger A New Altcoin Season? Although Bitcoin’s dominance is not at 71% yet, it is still steadily inching upward towards this level. Particularly, Bitcoin’s dominance is at 60.3%, and there are no signs of slowing down. This means that investors banking on a repeat of rejection around 71% might have to wait longer for the dominance to even reach this level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forms First Daily Death Cross On Dominance Chart In 4 Years, What To Expect Next If the 71% dominance level eventually becomes a local top again, historical patterns suggest altcoins could experience rapid gains. However, unlike in previous cycles, Ethereum may not take the lead in an altcoin season this time around. The leading altcoin has struggled to gain momentum this cycle as recent market dynamics have diminished its dominance in relation to other altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, which are witnessing more interest among crypto traders. Featured image from LinkedIn, chart from Tradingview.com

In his latest essay entitled “The Genie,” crypto entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes denounced calls for a United States Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), warning that such a program would create “unnecessary pain in under two years” and transform the world’s largest cryptocurrency into a potent political weapon. Hayes also cautioned the industry against pursuing what he deems to be an overcomplicated “Frankenstein crypto regulatory bill,” which, he argues, would primarily benefit large centralized institutions rather than foster true decentralization. A “Terrible Idea” For Bitcoin? Hayes questions both the feasibility and the long-term consequences of establishing a national Bitcoin stockpile. He argues the US government would be motivated by politics rather than sound financial strategy, potentially leading to manipulation of the Bitcoin market. In his view, a BSR risks becoming a mechanism for politicians to raise funds for unrelated agendas: “Let’s assume that Trump is able to create a BSR. The government buys one million Bitcoin, as suggested by US Senator Lummis. Boom! The price goes nuts. Then, the buying concludes, and the up-only trend channel stops.” Related Reading: Bitcoin to $500,000? Standard Chartered Exec Predicts Massive Surge By 2028 Hayes envisions a subsequent administration—one hostile to Bitcoin or crypto in general—deciding to liquidate this enormous reserve. “What if [the Democrats] got a veto-proof majority in the House of Representatives? By 2028, what if a Democrat won the election … finding easy piles of cash to spend on goodies for their supporters is the first directive. There are one million Bitcoin just sitting there, ready to be sold… The market would rightly fear when and how these Bitcoin would be sold.” Another of Hayes’ key contentions is that regulation shaped by special interests could inadvertently stifle the very innovation it aims to promote. According to Hayes, large exchanges and financial intermediaries with the resources to influence lawmakers are more likely to drive regulatory outcomes. This, he suggests, will burden smaller innovators and strengthen the position of major centralized players: “The crypto regulatory wishes likely to be granted… will be in the form of overly complicated, prescriptive rules that only large and wealthy centralized companies can afford… Is that what the broader crypto community actually desired from the genie? … Maybe those readers who are shareholders of Coinbase and BlackRock want a Frankenstein crypto bill. But I believe this type of regulation does nothing to alter the status quo.” An Alternative Proposal Rather than a BSR, Hayes proposes a more radical and complex financial arrangement involving the US Treasury, Bitcoin, and “century bonds” (100-year zero-coupon bonds). His idea is for the US to unilaterally devalue its existing Treasury obligations by announcing that Bitcoin will replace sovereign debt as the neutral global reserve asset. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter The Outcome Of Trump’s Trade War The plan, in his own words, would involve a public statement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, declaring the intention to use Bitcoin as the reserve asset while retaining the US dollar as the invoicing currency. Afterward, the Dollar would undergo a progressive devaluation, with the US Treasury bidding for Bitcoin at increasingly higher prices while issuing century bonds instead of immediate cash payouts. The next step would be extending the maturity of Treasury debt, with the Treasury selling Bitcoin at a profit to buy back and retire shorter-term obligations, ultimately pushing US debt maturity to 100 years. Additionally, global USD adoption would be accelerated through stablecoin transfers on social media platforms like Facebook and X, enabling everyday users to participate in US bond markets—bypassing conventional banking intermediaries. “That’s it for the financial history… The additional new goal is to make Bitcoin the global neutral reserve currency,” Hayes explains. He believes such a strategy could restore US hegemony by transitioning from the traditional “petrodollar” or “Treasury-based” system to one anchored in Bitcoin, all while ensuring large swaths of Bitcoin’s mining operations remain within US borders. In a more cautionary afterword, Hayes highlights that crypto voters played a notable role in returning Donald Trump and the Republican Party to power. Yet he stresses the slow pace of action on crypto issues, contrasting it with the administration’s rapid implementation of tariffs and rollbacks of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) mandates. “When Trump wants to act, he acts… The removal of ESG and DEI policies… came swiftly… That’s a shame because on the margin, the crypto single-issue voter put [the Republicans] in power.” He also reiterates his forecast that Bitcoin could see a sharp correction to a range of $70,000 to $75,000 before rallying higher in the long-term —if there is no immediate, concrete legislation favoring permissionless innovation or further monetary stimulus. For now, Hayes urges those “lining up day after day dressed in a seersucker suit or block heels and a summer dress hoping to ask the orange genie for a wish” to think carefully: “Stacking sats is my game, and I hope yours is too. Therefore, if you find yourself at the genie’s table… please wish for the right things.” At press time, BTC traded at $98,190. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In an escalation of global economic friction, President Trump’s imposed tariffs have roiled financial markets this week, cutting across both equities, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Yet a new memo from Bitwise Asset Management suggests that these headwinds might ultimately propel Bitcoin to new heights—regardless of whether Trump’s strategy succeeds or fails. At the beginning of the week, the crypto market witnessed a severe sell-off. Bitcoin declined by about 5%, while Ethereum and XRP suffered even sharper losses—17% and 18%, respectively. The immediate catalyst was Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. In retaliation, those trading partners announced countermeasures of their own. Related Reading: Key Indicator Signals DCA Opportunity Amid Bitcoin Buyer Momentum The US dollar reacted by jumping more than 1% against major currencies. That, combined with lingering weekend illiquidity in crypto markets, triggered a wave of forced liquidations as leveraged traders sold into the downdraft. According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, as much as $10 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in what he described as “the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history.” Despite the dramatic price action, Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeffrey Park, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. He points to two guiding ideas that shape his bullish thesis: the ‘Triffin Dilemma’ and President Trump’s broader aim to restructure America’s trade dynamics. The Triffin Dilemma highlights the conflict between a currency serving as a global reserve—generating consistent demand and overvaluation—and the need to run persistent trade deficits to supply enough currency abroad. While this status allows the US to borrow cheaply, it also puts sustained pressure on domestic manufacturing and exports. “Trump wants to get rid of the negatives, but keep the positives,” Park explains, suggesting that tariffs may be a negotiating tool to compel other nations to the table—reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which devalued the dollar in coordination with other major economies. The Two Scenarios: Bitcoin Wins, Fiat Loses Park argues that Bitcoin stands to benefit under two distinct outcomes of Trump’s current trade policy: Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds in Weakening the Dollar (While Keeping Rates Low) If Trump can maneuver a multilateral agreement—akin to a ‘Plaza Accord 2.0’—to reduce the dollar’s overvaluation without boosting long-term interest rates, risk appetite among US investors could surge. In this environment, a non-sovereign asset like Bitcoin, free from capital controls and dilution, would likely attract additional inflows. Meanwhile, other nations grappling with the fallout of a weaker dollar might deploy fiscal and monetary stimulus to support their economies, potentially driving even more capital toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. Related Reading: After The Bitcoin Crash: Will It Rise Or Drop Again? 5 Key Indicators “If Trump can bully his way into the position, there’s no asset better positioned than bitcoin. Lower rates will spark the risk appetite of US investors, sending prices high. Abroad, countries will face weakened economies, and will turn to classic economic stimulus to compensate, leading again to higher bitcoin prices,” Park argues. Scenario 2: A Prolonged Trade War And Massive Money Printing If Trump fails to secure a broad-based deal and the trade war grinds on, global economic weakness would almost certainly invite extensive monetary stimulus from central banks. Historically, such large-scale liquidity injections have been bullish for Bitcoin, as investors seek deflationary and decentralized assets insulated from central bank policies “And what if he fails? What if, instead, we get a sustained tariff war? Our high-conviction view is the resulting economic weakness will lead to money printing on a scale larger than we’ve ever seen. And historically, such stimulus has been extraordinarily good for bitcoin,” Park says.. At press time, BTC traded at $98,557. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst CryptoCon has provided valuable insights into the Bitcoin price action in this cycle. Based on his analysis, the next thirty days could be a game-changer, with BTC set to witness a significant move to the upside.  Why The Next 30 Days Could Be A Game Changer As The Bitcoin Price Makes its Move In an X post, CryptoCon predicted that the Bitcoin price could rally to as high as $160,000 in the next thirty days. This would be a game-changer for the market, especially considering the bearish sentiment in the crypto market at the moment. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has spent about 583 days ranging in this cycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms Double Bottom After Crash, Is A Bounce To $112,000 ATH Possible? On the other hand, the analyst remarked that the Bitcoin price has spent just 175 days, making meaningful price action to the upside. In line with this, he alluded to how patience is key, considering how Bitcoin ranges for most of the cycle. However, CryptoCon is convinced that the next 30-day sprint of great price action that the market is about to witness is worth the wait.  The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could record up to 37 days of expansion on this next leg up. The chart also showed that the flagship crypto could rally to as high as $160,000 in March following this upward trend. This is bullish for the broader crypto market as altcoins are also expected to rally as BTC moves to the upside. Before now, CryptoCon had already assured that the bull cycle wasn’t over despite the crypto market facing the largest liquidation event in this cycle, with over $2 billion wiped out from the market.    BTC’s Trend Remains Uncertain For Now While the Bitcoin price could rally to $160,000 in the next thirty days, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has stated that BTC’s trend direction in the short term remains uncertain. He noted that the flagship crypto is consolidating between $90,900 and $108,500. The analyst added that the trend remains uncertain until there is a clear breakout beyond this range.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Crashes By $4.5 Billion In One Weekend, Spells Doom For Bulls However, crypto analyst Kevin Capital suggested that the Bitcoin price could soon record a massive bounce to as high as $111,000, marking a new all-time high (ATH) for the flagship crypto. He noted that all the major liquidity on the monthly heatmap is to the upside towards this $111,000 price level. The analyst added that this cannot be ignored, especially after a massive capitulation. He further remarked that he would be shocked if BTC didn’t grab this liquidity and head lower.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $97,800, down over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Merlijn has described the Bitcoin price crash to $91,000 as a major bear trap as optimism returns to the market. The flagship crypto had dropped to this level following a wave of weekend sell-offs but has since recovered above the psychological $100,000 level.  Bitcoin Price Crash To $91,000 Termed “Biggest Bear Trap” In an X post, Merlijn described the Bitcoin price crash to $91,000 as the “biggest bear trap of this cycle.” The analyst noted that this happened in the 2017 and 2021 bull runs and has now occurred in this 2025 bull cycle. He is optimistic that Bitcoin and other crypto are well primed to rally to new highs, remarking that every major bull run had a final bear trap before sending it.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Aims For $150,000-$170,000 With Wave Formation, Here Are The Details The Bitcoin price had crashed to $91,000 following a wave of sell-offs, which was sparked by Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. This raised concerns about a trade war as Mexico and Canada moved to announce tariffs on imports from the US in retaliation. However, this turned out to be a bear trap, as BTC quickly reversed its weekend loss on Monday.  The Bitcoin price reclaimed $100,000 as the US, Mexico, and Canada agreed to a one-month pause on these tariffs. The rally to the psychological $100,000 level has again sparked optimism in the crypto market, especially with altcoins rebounding alongside the flagship crypto. Merlijn warned market participants that they can either choose to get shaken out or be positioned for the biggest move yet. Merlijn also shared a chart that showed that the bull cycle is far from over. Based on the chart, the Bitcoin price will still go through the renewed optimism, FOMO, and Euphoria phase before it tops in this cycle.  What’s Next For BTC? In an X post, crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated that the Bitcoin price needs to record a daily close above $101,000 and retest it successfully to reclaim it into support. He added that a successful reclaim of this price level could lead to an uptrend continuation, with BTC rallying to around $103,000. Based on the accompanying chart he shared, the next crucial resistance for the Bitcoin price is around $106,148. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Band Moves Above $105,400 – Where Price Is Headed Next Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto asserted that Bitcoin’s bull market is still intact. According to him, the bullish trend remains valid as long as BTC holds a monthly close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. In an X post, he highlighted a continuation pattern that could send the Bitcoin price as high as $117,000 in the short term.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $99,500, up over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In the aftermath of yesterday’s Bitcoin crash, market participants are closely examining whether the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization can rebound or if it faces the prospect of another decline. In a post shared on X today, February 4, on-chain analysis data provider Lookonchain offered insights into five critical indicators that may help traders and investors assess Bitcoin’s current position. “The price of Bitcoin experienced a major crash yesterday! Will it continue to rise or fall from the top? Let’s use 5 indicators to see if BTC is at its peak now,” Lookonchain writes. #1 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Described by Lookonchain as “a long-term valuation tool that uses a logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of BTC,” the Rainbow Chart is often employed to gauge whether Bitcoin might be undervalued, overvalued, or approaching a key turning point. “The NEW Bitcoin Rainbow2023 Chart shows that you can still hold BTC, and BTC will top above $250K this cycle.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Fearful For First Time Since October: Buying Signal? While this chart suggests a bullish long-term trajectory, its forecasts are based on historical price patterns and may not account for unforeseen market events. Nonetheless, Lookonchain’s data indicates a view that Bitcoin has yet to reach its cycle peak. #2 Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI is a technical indicator measuring the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.“≥ 70: BTC is overbought and may soon fall. ≤ 30: BTC is oversold and may soon increase. The current RSI is 75.56, compared with previous data, it seems that BTC has not yet reached its peak.” An RSI reading above 70 typically raises concerns that a correction may be due. However, Lookonchain’s observation underscores their view that despite the high RSI, historical data does not necessarily confirm a definitive market top. #3 200 Week Moving Average (200W MA) Heatmap Traders often reference the 200W MA as a foundational support or resistance level. Its heatmap variation charts the broader momentum and potential inflection points over a multi-year period. “The 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap shows that the current price point is blue, which means that the price top has not been reached yet, and it is time to hold and buy.” Related Reading: Despite Bitcoin Crash, Bitwise Predicts ‘Violent’ Surge Amid Trump’s Tariffs A “blue” reading on the heatmap implies the market has not displayed the peak signals observed in prior cycles. While some might view this as indicative of further potential upside, others remain cautious given macroeconomic uncertainties. #4 Bitcoin Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed (CVDD) Coin Days Destroyed is a long-standing on-chain metric that focuses on how long BTC has remained in a particular wallet before being moved. CVDD aggregates this data over time, aiming to pinpoint points where Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued. “When the BTC price touches the green line, the $BTC price is undervalued and it is a good buying opportunity. The current CVDD shows that the top of $BTC does not seem to have been reached yet.” According to Lookonchain, Bitcoin’s position relative to this metric implies that the market has not encountered the historically observed top conditions, suggesting the possibility of further upward momentum. #5 2-Year MA Multiplier The 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier is another widely referenced model that compares Bitcoin’s current price to its two-year moving average. “The 2-Year MA Multiplier shows that the price of $BTC is in the middle of the red and green lines. It has not touched the red line and the market has not reached the top yet.” Historically, Bitcoin’s price nearing or surpassing the upper red line has often coincided with cycle peaks. Since Bitcoin remains in a mid-range position, the data suggests that a top may not have materialized yet—though this does not eliminate the risk of further volatility. Overall, Lookonchain’s analysis, based on these five indicators, points to a conclusion that the top of Bitcoin’s current market cycle may remain undiscovered. At press time, BTC traded at $99,419. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin open interest crashed by billions in one weekend, painting a bearish outlook for the flagship crypto and spells doom for BTC bulls. Despite this setback, crypto analysts have provided some optimism with their analysis, which hints at a bullish reversal soon enough.  Bitcoin’s Open Interest Crashes By $4.5 Billion Over The Weekend Coinglass data shows that Bitcoin’s open interest crashed by $4.5 billion over the weekend, dropping from $65 billion to $61.5 billion. This came following the liquidations that occurred due to the BTC price crash. Further data from Coinglass shows that over $2 billion has been wiped out from the Bitcoin market in the last 24 hours.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Turn Bearish Despite Price Recovery Above $97,000, Here Are The Numbers Bitcoin bulls took the most hit, as $1.88 billion in long positions was liquidated during this period, leading to a crash in BTC’s open interest. This paints a bearish outlook for the flagship crypto and puts the bulls in danger as the bears look to be firmly in control. For context, Bitcoin dropped from above $100,000 to as low as $92,000 over the weekend.  This Bitcoin price crash occurred after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on goods from China. Mexico and Canada have retaliated by imposing tariffs on goods from the US, while China has also hinted about imposing a tariff on US goods.  Bitcoin’s open interest looks unlikely to recover in the short term as market participants could choose to stay out of the market due to economic uncertainty. This occurrence spells doom for Bitcoin bulls as the flagship crypto could drop lower if there are no buyers to defend BTC at these levels.  Some Positive For Bitcoin Amid Open Interest Crash  In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that 65.75% of Binance traders with open Bitcoin futures positions are betting on the upside. This is bullish for the BTC price as these traders have a track record of being right most of the time. As such, the flagship crypto could rebound from its current price level.  In an X post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto stated that the broader trend for the Bitcoin price is still upward. This came as he revealed that BTC is establishing a new range between $104,400 and $93,600. The crypto analyst remarked that the short-term direction remains uncertain until this range breaks. However, in the long term, Titan of Crypto is confident that the broader trend is still upward.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price In Trouble? Bearish Divergence That Led To Market Crash Last Cycle Returns Meanwhile, renowned author and finance expert Robert Kiyosaki suggested that this wasn’t a time to panic as this was an opportunity to buy Bitcoin on sale before it rallies further to the upside.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $94,000, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price sank by more than 13.5% over the weekend, dropping as low as $91,201 on Binance. The sell-off followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new trade tariffs. The administration levied a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, added a 10% tax on Chinese goods, and imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy resources. While market observers typically view such aggressive moves as a negative for risk assets, one prominent voice at Bitwise Invest sees a wildly different scenario, predicting that these tariffs could fuel a “violent” long-term rally in Bitcoin. Why Tariffs May Supercharge Bitcoin Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Invest, argues that these tariffs cannot be understood simply as a response to trade imbalances but should be viewed against the broader backdrop of the so-called Triffin dilemma. In Park’s words, “The US wants to keep its ability to borrow cheaply, but rid its structural overvaluation and constant trade deficits—enter tariffs.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Is Trading In This Bearish Flag — What’s The Downside Target? He suggests that, by using tariffs as a bargaining chip, the White House is looking to create a new multi-lateral agreement—akin to a “Plaza Accord 2.0”—aimed at weakening the US dollar. This would potentially oblige foreign governments to reduce their US dollar reserves or to hold longer-duration Treasuries, thereby keeping yields low without officially enacting yield curve control. Park also ties this strategy to the president’s personal incentives. He believes Trump’s “#1 goal” is to drive down the 10-year Treasury yield, in part because cheaper long-term financing would benefit real estate markets. According to Park, such a push for lower yields dovetails with a deliberate move to weaken the dollar—two conditions that, in his view, create a perfect environment for Bitcoin to flourish. “The asset to own therefore is Bitcoin. In a world of weaker dollar and weaker US rates, something broken pundits will tell you is impossible (because they can’t model statecraft), risk assets in the US will fly through the roof beyond your wildest imagination, for it is likely a giant tax cut will have to accompany the higher costs borne by the loss of comparative advantage,” Park writes. His thesis is that the “online and onchain” nature of today’s economy will funnel frustrated citizens across the globe toward alternative stores of value—namely Bitcoin. He believes both sides of any prolonged tariff war will discover that BTC offers a refuge from the fallout, leading to what he describes as a much higher price trajectory. Related Reading: Analyst Explains Bitcoin’s Path To $150,000 – Details “So while both sides of the trade imbalance equation will want Bitcoin for two different reasons, the end result is the same: higher, violently faster—for we are at war. TLDR: You simply have not yet grasped how amazing a sustained tariff war is going to be for Bitcoin in the long run,” Park claims. Tariffs As A Risk Asset Drag Not all analysts share Park’s optimism. Alex Krüger, an economist and trader from Argentina, disagrees with the notion that tariffs of this magnitude inherently favor Bitcoin. He warned that “Bitcoin is mainly a risk asset.” He added: Tariffs this aggressive are very negative for risk assets. And the economy will take a hit. The tariffs announced are considerably worse than what was expected by the market, as gradual tariffs or delayed implementation were seen as alternatives. So the S&P futures will open deeply in the red tonight and flush.” In Krüger’s view, Bitcoin remains a high-beta asset often correlated with equity markets. When a major macro shock—like a sudden hike in tariffs—hits, investors typically rotate into safe havens rather than riskier holdings such as stocks or cryptocurrencies. He pointed out that the sell-off in crypto over the weekend might be explained by the market reacting to an “unexpectedly harsh” tariff announcement. “The hope for crypto is that it has already dropped a lot in anticipation,” Krüger observed, hinting that digital assets may find a local bottom if the initial shock has been fully absorbed. However, he emphasized the persistent uncertainty ahead, including the possibility of retaliation by targeted nations. A swift resolution to the trade dispute could trigger a bounce, whereas an escalation could deepen market jitters. Krüger also cautioned that the Federal Reserve might turn hawkish if tariffs stoke inflation—an outcome that rarely bodes well for high-growth or risk-prone assets. Still, he hasn’t ruled out fresh all-time highs in equities later this year: “I still don’t think the cycle top is in, and expect equity indices to print ATHs later in the year. But the probability of being wrong has increased. Particularly on the latter. As I said a week ago, I’ve taken my long-term hat off. This is a traders’ market.” At press time, BTC traded at $94,000. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst CobraVanguard has revealed that the Bitcoin price has entered an ascending phase after a cup and handle formation at the $105,000 level. Based on this bullish pattern, the analyst highlighted the price target that BTC could reach as it enters this ascending phase.  Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $123,000 As It Enters Ascending Phase In a TradingView post, CobraVanguard predicted that the Bitcoin price could rally to $123,000 as it enters the ascending phase by the cup and handle pattern. According to the analyst, BTC is in a large cup and handle, and if it follows this pattern, its price will have a nice rally. His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could hit the $123,000 price target.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Charts Roadmap To $117,000, What You Should Know The analyst also revealed his golden analysis for the Bitcoin price, in which he revealed that the flagship crypto could rally to as high as $260,000 in this market cycle. His accompanying chart highlighted an ascending channel, which showed that BTC could hit this target if it reached the upper part of the channel.  Interestingly, other crypto analysts have provided higher targets for the Bitcoin price in this market cycle. Crypto analyst Tony Severino recently predicted that BTC could reach as high as $321,000 in this cycle. He highlighted a potential head and shoulder pattern on BTC’s chart and stated that the flagship crypto could reach this target if the pattern were valid.  He also raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price rallying to $345,000. Severino explained that BTC could reach this ambitious price target if it touches the upper boundary of the primary uptrend channel over the last eight years or thereabouts. Meanwhile, for his more conservative targets, he predicted that Bitcoin’s price could top between $158,000 and $191,000 in this market cycle.  Why BTC Hasn’t Reached Its Market Top Yet Amid the bearish signals pointing to a market top, crypto analyst Ali Martinez outlined several reasons why the Bitcoin price still has more room to grow in this bull run. First, he noted that cycle shifts typically occur when BTC surpasses 2.4x the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently at $184,600.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Officially Enter Into Greed Territory, Is This Good Or Bad For Price? Furthermore, Martinez stated that the Mayer Multiple suggests the Bitcoin price has more upside, with a potential market top of around $182,000. From a technical perspective, the crypto analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s cup-and-handle breakout, which points toward a target of $276,400. Lastly, he alluded to the halving cycle theory, which suggests that BTC could reach a market top between May and October 2025.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $104,700, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation’s leadership in digital assets. Could 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Trend? Hougan’s note begins with an explanation of the so-called “four-year cycle,” where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Preparing For A February Rally? Analyst Says New High Is Two Weeks Away These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs. Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the “Mainstream Cycle,” emerging out of 2022’s “massive deleveraging” caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF. “Bitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance among both retail and institutional players. The most striking component of Hougan’s analysis is his examination of last week’s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a “national priority,” but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto. Related Reading: DeepSeek Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Peak At $500,000 – Here’s When “Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it’s making me wonder,” Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets. Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate. Hougan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there’s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?” While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products—he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued. However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. With the industry’s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. “As for now, it’s full steam ahead,” he concluded. “The crypto train is leaving the station.” At press time, BTC traded at $105,275. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

According to a TradingView crypto analyst named ‘TradingShot,’ the Bitcoin price has formed a Double Bottom pattern and is on track to reach a new All-Time High (ATH) of $112,000. This potential shift in trajectory comes after the cryptocurrency experienced a severe price crash that briefly pushed it below the $100,000 mark.  Bitcoin Price Finds Strong Support At Double Bottom The Bitcoin price crashed below $100,000 earlier this week as the China-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) model DeepSeek gained significant popularity across the US and global investment market, overtaking OpenAI’s ChatGPT. While this decline came as a shock, triggering a massive sell-off, Bitcoin managed to recover over 50% of its losses in a short time.  Related Reading: End Of The Road For Bitcoin? Analyst Reveals When Price Will Crash To $50,000 Following this severe crash, TradingShot revealed that Bitcoin had rebounded at a Double support level, using two strong support lines to prevent further price slips. The analyst shared a detailed price chart that highlights several Double Bottoms, including one forming near the 4-hour 200-Moving Average (4H MA200).  A Double Bottom pattern is a chart formation that indicates a potential trend reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. It is characterized by two consecutive lows around the same price level and creates a W-shaped movement. Looking at the chart, the Bitcoin price is moving within an Ascending Channel, indicating a general uptrend. The 4H MA200 on the orange trend line is a strong Double Bottom support level, which Bitcoin recently tested for the first time in 12 days.  TradingShot also mentioned a “Pivot trend line” in which Bitcoin previously faced resistance, starting from its ATH on December 17, 2024. This trend line now acts as a support line for the cryptocurrency, as its price has reversed near it. Notably, Bitcoin almost touched the bottom of January’s Channel Up, indicating a potential key support zone. This is similar to a pattern in December, where the cryptocurrency bounced off the same support and hit a new ATH.  Key Resistance At 4H MA50 — Breakout Or Rejection? In TradingShot’s chart, the 4H MA50 is indicated on the blue line, acting as a dynamic resistance level for the cryptocurrency. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below this Moving Average, meaning a breakout above this level could trigger more upside.  The analyst predicts that if Bitcoin breaks above the 4H MA50, it could continue its bullish momentum toward a higher price level between $110,000 and $112,000. This massive surge would mark a new ATH for the pioneer cryptocurrency, as the highest price Bitcoin has ever reached is above $108,000.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Band Moves Above $105,400 – Where Price Is Headed Next Supporting this bullish scenario, the TradingView analyst highlights Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which shows oversold areas marked in green circles on the chart. Whenever RSI drops below 30, Bitcoin tends to rebound, indicating a potential for a strong bounce.  Conversely, the analyst forecasted a bearish scenario for Bitcoin if it faces a rejection around the 4H MA50. He predicts that Bitcoin could revisit the Double Bottom at $98,000, a bearish level observed on both December 23 and January 13. An even deeper correction is expected for this cryptocurrency if it continues on a downtrend, with the analyst projecting a crash to $96,000.  Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom and co-Founder as well as former CEO of BitMEX, has published a new essay titled “The Ugly,” in which he contends that Bitcoin could be poised for a profound near-term pullback before ultimately marching to unprecedented highs. While retaining his characteristic bluntness, Hayes lays out two scenarios when to buy Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin If This Happens Hayes’ essay begins by recounting a sudden shift in sentiment that caught him off guard. Comparing financial analysis to backcountry skiing on a dormant volcano, Hayes recalls how the mere hint of avalanche danger once forced him to stop and reassess. He expresses a similarly uneasy feeling about current monetary conditions, an intuition he says he last felt in late 2021, right before the crypto markets collapsed from their record highs. “Subtle movements between central bank balance sheet levels, the rate of banking credit expansion, the relationship between the US 10-yr treasury/stocks/Bitcoin prices, and the insane TRUMP memecoin price action produced a pit in my stomach,” he writes, emphasizing that these signals collectively remind him of the market’s precarious situation prior to the 2022 and 2023 downturns. He clarifies that he does not believe the broader bull cycle is finished, but he anticipates that Bitcoin could drop to somewhere around the $70,000 to $75,000 range before rallying sharply to reach $250,000 by year’s end. Related Reading: DeepSeek Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Peak At $500,000 – Here’s When He describes this range as plausible given that equity markets and treasury markets appear, in his words, deeply entangled in a “filthy fiat” environment still grappling with the vestiges of inflation and rising interest rates. Hayes points out that Maelstrom, his investment firm, remains net long while simultaneously raising its holdings in the USDe stablecoins to buy back Bitcoin if price falls below $75,000. In his view, scaling back risk in the short term allows him to preserve capital that can later be deployed when a genuine market liquidation occurs. He identifies a 30% correction from current levels as a distinct possibility, while also acknowledging that the bullish momentum could continue. “if Bitcoin trades through $110,000 on strong volume with an expanding perp open interest, then I’ll throw in the towel and buy back risk higher,” he writes on his second scenario. In attempting to decipher why a temporary pullback might happen, Hayes asserts that major central banks—the Federal Reserve in the United States, the People’s Bank of China, and the Bank of Japan—are either curbing money creation or, in some cases, outright raising the price of money by permitting yields to rise. He believes that these shifts could choke off speculative capital that has elevated both stocks and cryptocurrencies in recent months. His discussion of the US focuses on two interlocked perspectives: that ten-year treasury yields could rise to a zone between 5% and 6%, and that the Federal Reserve, while hostile to Donald Trump’s administration, will not hesitate to reinitiate printing if it becomes essential to preserve American financial stability. Related Reading: Bitcoin Finally Turns $100K Into Support – Ready To Rally Higher? However, he believes that at some point, the financial system will need an intervention—most likely an exemption to the Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR) or a new wave of quantitative easing. He contends that the reluctance or slowness of the Fed to take these steps increases the probability of a near-term bond market sell-off, which could weigh on equities, and by correlation, Bitcoin. His political analysis homes in on the lingering enmity between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as the Fed’s willingness to forestall a crisis during the Biden presidency. He cites statements from former Fed governor William Dudley and references Powell’s press conference remarks that suggested the Fed might alter its approach based on Trump’s policies. Hayes describes these tensions as a backdrop for a scenario in which Trump might allow a mini-financial crisis to unfold, forcing the Fed’s hand. Under such stress, the Fed would have little choice but to prevent a broader meltdown, and monetary expansion could then follow. He suggests that it would be politically expedient for the Trump administration to permit yields to surge to crisis levels if it meant that the Fed would be compelled to pivot into the large-scale money printing that many in crypto circles expect. China, Hayes remarks, had seemed poised to join the liquidity party with an explicit reflation program until a sudden U-turn in January, when the PBOC halted its bond-buying program and allowed the yuan to stabilize in a stronger position. He attributes this policy change to internal political pressures or possibly strategic maneuvering for future negotiations with Trump. Hayes also acknowledges that some readers might find the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets perplexing, given the long-term argument that Bitcoin is a unique store of value. Yet he points to charts showing a rising 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100. In the short term, he says, the leading cryptocurrency remains sensitive to changes in fiat liquidity, even if the coin ultimately trades on an uncorrelated basis over extended time horizons. He thus portrays Bitcoin as a leading indicator: if bond yields spike and equity markets tumble, Bitcoin could begin its dive before tech stocks follow. Hayes thinks that once authorities unleash renewed monetary stimulus to quell volatility, Bitcoin would be the first to bottom out and rebound. He admits that predicting exact outcomes is impossible and that any investor must play perceived probabilities rather than certainties. His decision to hedge is derived from the concept of expected value. If he believes there is a substantial chance of a 30% pullback versus a smaller probability that Bitcoin will continue higher before he decides to buy back in at a 10% premium, reducing exposure still yields a better risk-reward ratio. “Trading isn’t about being right or wrong,” he emphasizes, “but about trading perceived probabilities and maximizing expected value.” He also underscores that this protective stance allows him to wait for the kind of dramatic liquidation move in altcoins that often accompanies a short-term Bitcoin collapse, a scenario he calls “Armageddon” in the so-called “shitcoin space.” In such circumstances, he wants ample funds available to pick up fundamentally sound tokens at severely depressed prices. At press time, BTC traded at $102,530. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

DeepSeek, the Chinese open-source AI model making waves in Silicon Valley, is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, predicting a potential peak of between $500,000 and $600,000 by the first quarter of 2026. This bold outlook emerged after the AI was asked to factor in both historical models and on-chain data, alongside a pro-Bitcoin approach from President Trump. DeepSeek’s Bitcoin Price Prediction DeepSeek begins by discussing what it calls the “Key Implications of the Crypto Executive Order,” which it believes would change the calculus for both institutional and retail participants. The AI states that “The exploration of a national Bitcoin reserve signals institutional validation of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. If the US government accumulates Bitcoin, it could create a significant supply shock, driving prices higher.” This comment reflects a view that the market could tighten substantially if large public entities, such as national treasuries, decide to hold Bitcoin in reserve. Furthermore, DeepSeek highlights the possibility that “other nations and institutions could follow suit,” which would add to the upward price pressure if a wave of competitive accumulation were to ensue. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims $101,000: Key Levels to Watch Moving Forward The AI also remarks that by banning CBDCs, the Trump administration would be “effectively positioning Bitcoin and other decentralized cryptocurrencies as the primary alternatives to fiat currencies,” which is a bold departure from the policies adopted or explored by many other jurisdictions that tend to see CBDCs as a means of maintaining control over monetary policy in a digital economy. DeepSeek believes regulatory clarity is another fundamental driver likely to magnify Bitcoin’s gains. It explicitly points out that the “establishment of a cryptocurrency working group led by David Sacks suggests a pro-innovation regulatory approach” and that such a policy stance is likely to foster a favorable climate for crypto businesses and financial institutions looking for stable guidelines. The AI argues that this, in turn, could encourage accelerated institutional inflows and broader mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin, especially if companies are assured that the regulatory framework allows them to innovate without fear of sudden legal or compliance obstacles. DeepSeek goes on to address the geopolitical aspects of the executive order by saying, “The US is taking a leadership role in the digital asset space, which could strengthen the dollar’s dominance while simultaneously boosting Bitcoin’s status as a global store of value.” Delving into the specific timeline, the AI predicts that any news about the realization of thr strategic Bitcoin reserve could trigger a short-lived but potent rally, potentially pushing the price to the $120,000–$130,000 bracket as traders, institutions, and the media absorb the implications of a government-led push for a national Bitcoin reserve and enhanced regulatory clarity. DeepSeek expects that by the second and third quarters of 2025, as conversations around the working group’s findings gain momentum, institutional investors and retail market participants may exhibit what DeepSeek calls “Institutional FOMO,” leading to a jump in Bitcoin’s price to the $200,000–$250,000 zone. Related Reading: DeepSeek’s AI Breakthrough Triggers Fears In Tech Sector, Impacting Bitcoin Prices The AI model then projects that by the end of 2025, the price might rise further, potentially reaching $300,000–$350,000. It points to ongoing speculation about the government’s Bitcoin purchases, or at least the possibility of such purchases, as well as heightened recognition of Bitcoin’s role as a global reserve asset. DeepSeek believes this period would be marked by increased media attention, new financial products enabling Bitcoin exposure, and robust demand from both seasoned and new investors. The AI’s analysis becomes especially dramatic when it turns to the outlook for 2026, tying the bullish price momentum to three key factors: the aftermath of the 2024 Bitcoin halving, growing interest from major institutions, and direct involvement of the US government. DeepSeek says, “Bitcoin could peak at $500,000-$600,000, as the market enters the euphoria phase,” suggesting that the first quarter of 2026 is the most likely time for such a spike. DeepSeek stresses that the halving would reduce Bitcoin’s issuance, while strong new demand from large-scale players—possibly guided by the new executive order—could further tighten supply. Yet, DeepSeek warns that after this euphoric peak, the market may correct significantly, potentially falling back to the $250,000–$300,000 range by mid to late 2026 as investors realize profits and speculative excesses unwind. The AI still anticipates a generally positive long-term picture, asserting that “the long-term outlook remains bullish due to Bitcoin’s growing role in the global financial system,” particularly if the regulatory framework introduced during Trump’s administration remains in place and encourages widespread adoption. At press time, BTC traded at $102,948. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been characterized by intense volatility as it touched both the lower and upper ends of $98,380 and $103,369, respectively. Technical analysis of the Bitcoin price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe shows that the leading cryptocurrency is on the path to a price target of $117,000.  An analyst on the TradingView platform has outlined a detailed roadmap for Bitcoin’s journey to this $117,000 price target, highlighting a series of key price zones and market cycles to watch out for. Momentum And Resistance Levels On The Way To $117,000 Technical trend analysis shows that Bitcoin has been trading in an ascending channel in a weekly candlestick timeframe since Q4 2024, with the price steadily climbing within the channel. As demonstrated in the chart below, the most recent 7-day candlestick is bearish, pushing Bitcoin to retest the midline of this ascending channel. This bearish movement reflects temporary selling pressure but aligns with the broader pattern of corrections within an overall uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Above $100,000 Renews Hope, Analyst Reveals The Cycle Top A rebound is expected from here, which would send Bitcoin on another move toward the upper trendline. Interestingly, a move toward the upper resistance zone puts the price target around $117,000, marking a significant milestone for Bitcoin. Nonetheless, there remains a potential downside risk, and the journey to $117,000 is not expected to be linear. According to the analyst, Bitcoin may witness a pullback to the zone between $95,000, $97,000, and $100,000, which may act as a consolidation region before Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory. This zone coincides with previous support levels and trendlines, further solidifying its significance as a critical area for accumulation and stability. The Harmonic Fibonacci projection tool also suggests the pullback to the range between $97,000 and $95,000 could form a “healthier setup” for a sustained rally. Furthermore, temporary resistance near $108,000 could also slow Bitcoin’s climb. This level is even more notable, considering the fact that it is the current all-time high that would need to be surpassed. The overall long-term structure remains bullish even with the potential pullback, with higher highs and higher lows forming on the roadmap to $117,000. Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Across Multiple Timeframes The analyst also looked into Bitcoin’s market cycles across different timeframes. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently in Cycle 2, which the analyst describes as a phase with little buying momentum. Entering at the current level carries a higher risk, and Cycle 1 would need to return for an entry point. The weekly timeframe also reflects Cycle 2 at the top of the chart. This placement often transitions into Cycle 3, which could lead to significant price movement either upward or downward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Officially Enter Into Greed Territory, Is This Good Or Bad For Price? On a two-week timeframe, Cycle 1 is present but is also positioned at the top, which is also not a good entry point. However, the removal of a recent sell signal suggests that the immediate risk of Bitcoin dropping below $97,000 has diminished, but is not totally over. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,700 and is up by 4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has long been celebrated for its explosive growth during bull market periods. However, its cyclic nature, which consists of both a bull and a bear market, often leaves many market watchers unprepared for inevitable crashes. If history is any guide, a crypto analyst predicts that Bitcoin will skyrocket to a new price peak in 2025 and hit the end of the road after crashing to $50,000 in 2026. Despite the anticipated bull run in 2025, historical data suggests that Bitcoin could soon experience a significant market correction. TradingView analyst Xanrox said in a recent report that BTC’s price will crash to $50,000 in 2026. Analyst Calls For BTC Price Crash To $50,000 The analyst explained that statistically, Bitcoin’s price tends to crash by 77% to 86% every four years. Moreover, his predicted price decline to $50,000 aligns with past bull cycle patterns, where Bitcoin sheds substantial value after every bull run.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Aims For $150,000-$170,000 With Wave Formation, Here Are The Details Presenting a chart, the analyst highlighted the estimated durations of the Bitcoin bull and bear market. He disclosed that the bull market often lasts between 742 and 1,065 days, while the bear market typically lasts 344 to 413 days.  Although previous cycles saw Bitcoin correcting to severe levels, Xanrox suggests that this upcoming crash will be much weaker due to the market’s maturing structure and the involvement of institutions. He predicts that Bitcoin will plummet by 65%, leaving many investors at a loss when they sell at low prices. Nevertheless, the TradingView analyst asserts that the downturn could present a potential buying opportunity for investors who understand the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin market. Xanrox confirmed that the market is in the final stage of the 4-year bull cycle, which should end between February and November 2025. The analyst forecasts Bitcoin’s next market top at $125,000 in 2025, after which the price crash to $50,000 is expected by 2026.  Consequently, he advises investors and traders to consider selling their holdings as the price approaches the peak and to ignore “moon boys” who propose unrealistic targets of $500,000 or $1 million for BTC. He also asserts that a surge to these ambitious targets was near impossible, as it would require an enormous market capitalization for Bitcoin.  How The Bitcoin Halving Influences Market Prices According to Xanrox’s chart analysis, Bitcoin price trends have consistently followed a 4-year halving cycle, which is a historical event for the crypto market. During each halving period, the block reward for miners is cut in half, reducing the number of new BTC entering the circulation.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Could Retest Substantially Below $100,000 If This Level Fails The TradingView analyst disclosed that investors well versed in Bitcoin halving patterns and prepared for the projected cyclic crash would be well positioned to capitalize on his projected crash to $50,000. These investors would see a Bitcoin decline as an “incredible investment opportunity, maximizing profits on funding fees as they short Bitcoin at the top.  Unsurprisingly, Xanrox’s projected drop to $50,000 aligns with the typical bear market period that follows a BTC price peak. Historically, each 4-year halving cycle has included both a bull run and a bear market, with the latter signaling that the cycle is ending. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin (BTC) price has plunged below $98,000, retracing from $105,000 as low as $97,750 today, marking a sudden decline of as much as -6.8%. The rapid sell-off coincides with heightened volatility across both crypto and traditional markets, with multiple factors contributing to BTC’s downward spiral. Why Is Bitcoin Down Today? #1 DeepSeek’s Surprise Impact On Tech Markets The primary driver behind the broader risk-off sentiment appears to be the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) platform whose swift rise and cost-effectiveness have rattled US tech giants. Renowned market commentary outlet The Kobeissi Letter posted via X: “Nasdaq 100 futures are now down -330 POINTS since the market opened just hours ago as DeepSeek takes #1 on the App Store. This is how you know DeepSeek has become a major threat to US large cap tech. The stock market does not lie.” DeepSeek reportedly competes with ChatGPT yet was developed at a fraction of the cost, using less advanced hardware. Benchmark tests indicate that DeepSeek is outperforming ChatGPT in categories such as AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, igniting concerns that the dominance of US-based AI firms could be at risk. Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Staggering $4.7 Billion In Seven-Day Inflow Streak — Details The Kobeissi Letter added:“OpenAI … was valued at ~$157 BILLION in October 2024 … has ~22 TIMES more employees than DeepSeek. This is why markets have been blindsided.” Traders fear that if investors pull capital out of overextended AI stocks, a broader tech sell-off could ensue. This has significant implications for the Bitcoin and crypto market as well because of its correlation. “Crypto is front running as markets are closed & it’s a higher risk-beta asset class,”crypto analyst Miles Deutscher noted via X. However, he sees a silver lining for Bitcoin and crypto once the AI stock boom subsides: “If DeepSeek is the knife that could (momentarily) burst the AI stock bubble, then this could actually be bullish for crypto, as liquidity rotates back. AI stocks sucked up a lot of speculative capital that previously would’ve flowed into BTC/crypto.” #2 Pre-FOMC De-Risking Another contributor to the current downswing is the commonly observed pre-FOMC market de-risking. Historically, investors recalibrate their portfolios ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, scheduled for January 28–29, 2025. Although consensus indicates that interest rates may remain unchanged, riskier assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies often face sell-pressure in the lead-up to such announcements. Deutscher commented:“Pre-FOMC de-risking (this is very normal, especially in an environment where we’re extremely sensitive to rates/U.S. dollar/liquidity).” Related Reading: Crypto Experts Forecast Bitcoin Market Peak: Bear Market Could Emerge Within 3 Months Deutscher also speculated on whether Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might adopt a softer stance, given the recent transition of the US presidency: “So… if stocks are already in panic mode, is Jerome Powell really going to come out super hawkish? Right as Trump has just entered office? Idk… My prediction is that the pre-FOMC sell-off marks the local bottom.” #3 Lack Of New Price Catalyst After Trump’s Executive Order Market participants also cite a perceived vacuum of fresh bullish news following last week’s first-ever crypto executive order by President Donald Trump. Although the order initially propelled crypto optimism, the absence of a new catalyst left traders wanting more. Deutscher referred to this as the “lack of short-term ‘north star’ after Trump’s inauguration.” #4 Long Liquidations Exacerbating The Move According to Coinglass data, a flurry of long liquidations has magnified the downward price action. 313,683 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Total crypto liquidations hit $853.92 million, with $795.5 million in longs. The largest single liquidation order occurred on HTX for BTC-USDT valued at $98.46 million. On the Bitcoin market alone, $250 million worth of long positions were liquidated. The surge in liquidations amplified BTC’s fall, triggering more traders to unwind positions. Analysts view these forced liquidations as both a cause and a symptom of heightened volatility. At press time, BTC traded at $98,983. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TadingView.com

Crypto analyst Tony Severino has provided an ultra-bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price, predicting that the flagship crypto could rally to as high as $321,000. The analyst admitted that this target was too high for BTC but added that it was simply the “math. Bitcoin Price To Reach $321,000 In This Market Cycle  In a substack post, Tony Severino predicted that the Bitcoin price could rally to as high as $321,000 in this bull run. This came as the analyst highlighted a potential head and shoulders pattern that had formed on Bitcoin’s chart. The analyst claimed that if this bullish pattern was valid, then it projects a maximum target of $321,000 per BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Aims For $150,000-$170,000 With Wave Formation, Here Are The Details Severino admitted that this price target for the Bitcoin price is too high but remarked that it’s the “math.” Interestingly, the crypto analyst went on to give a higher price prediction for the flagship crypto based on another bullish pattern. According to him, BTC could reach $345,000 if it touches the upper boundary of the primary uptrend channel over the last 8 years or thereabouts. Meanwhile, Severino also provided more conservative targets for the Bitcoin price. The analyst predicted that BTC could at least touch $158,000. This came as he noted that the 2021 cycle peak inverse Fibonacci extension could project the 2025 cycle peak. If so, he stated that this peak inverse Fib extension is located among the lowest estimates for BTC at $158,000.  The crypto analyst further remarked that another method of using the 1.618 Fib extension involves projecting the target from the peak of wave 3 from the bottom of wave 1. Based on this, he added that this calls for a potential target of $194,000.  Severino provided another version that projects the 1.618 Fib extension from the top of subwave iii of 5 to the bottom of subwave i of 5. If this plays out, BTC could reach a slightly lower target of $186,000. Lastly, the crypto analyst also raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price peaking at $191,000. He highlighted a bull pattern, which, if valid, could send BTC to this target.  BTC’s Price Action In The Short Term Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into the Bitcoin price action in the short term. In an X post, he stated that the key support level for Bitcoin is at $97,877, where more than 101,000 BTC were accumulated. The analyst further remarked that holding above this level is crucial to sustaining the bullish momentum for the flagship crypto.  Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash To $99,000, Here’s What’s Supposed To Happen Next In another X post, the crypto analyst provided a bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price. He noted that the number of BTC transactions over $100,000 has doubled in the past week, rising from $15,620 to $32,320.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $104,300, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In a recent development, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that Bitcoin long-term holders have officially entered greed territory. This could benefit the price in the short term, although the long-term consequences could be severe. The greed phase suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders are now excessively optimistic about BTC’s future trajectory. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Officially Enter Into Greed Territory In an X post, Martinez stated that long-term Bitcoin holders, having experienced every phase of the market cycle, are now letting greed take over. In terms of market sentiment, these holders have moved from capitulation to hope, optimism, and then belief and are now in the greed phase. Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash To $99,000, Here’s What’s Supposed To Happen Next This excessive optimism typically leads these investors to accumulate more BTC impulsively without considering rational analyses. In the short term, this greed phase is bullish for the Bitcoin price since this market sentiment could spark more buying pressure and drive the flagship crypto higher. This buying pressure for Bitcoin already looks to be evident as on-chain analytics platform Santiment revealed that the number of wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC has broken an all-time high (ATH), rising to 15,777 wallets. The platform also mentioned that Bitcoin whales peaked up steam this week with the US inauguration and a new BTC ATH as transactions exceeding $100,00 surged to their highest level in six weeks.  This greed phase is good for the BTC price, as it could continue to send the flagship crypto to new highs. However, in the long term, this excessive optimism could put BTC in overbought territory, eventually sparking a massive wave of sell-offs that would send the Bitcoin price tumbling.  This greed phase among Bitcoin long-term holders looks to be sparked by optimism around Donald Trump’s pro-crypto administration and the strategic BTC reserve especially. This still poses a risk for the Bitcoin price since the flagship crypto could be trading well above its actual value if the BTC reserve isn’t eventually created.  What Needs To Happen For BTC To Stay Bullish In another X post, Ali Martinez warned that the Bitcoin price needs to stay above $97,530 to remain bullish. According to him, this price level is the key support level to watch for BTC, as holding above it is crucial to maintaining the current bullish momentum. Bitcoin is currently consolidating around this range after hitting a new ATH of $109,000 earlier this week.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Aims For $150,000-$170,000 With Wave Formation, Here Are The Details Meanwhile, crypto analyst Crypto Rover highlighted the $102,000 support area as the most important for the BTC price right now. His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could drop to as low as $98,000 if it drops below this support level.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $104,900, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Although Bitcoin price action is still holding above the $100,000 price level, the past 24 hours have been highlighted by a 2.5% decline. According to liquidation data from Coinglass, this decline has seen $65.47 million worth of positions liquidated, with the majority ($54.10 million) being long positions.  Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev_Capital_TA) noted a significant range between $96,000 and $111,000, calling it the most pivotal zone on Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap. This zone could determine the market’s next trajectory after months of back and forth movement trading between this range. Bitcoin’s Liquidity Heatmap Highlights Key Levels According to Kevin’s analysis, which he posted on social media platform X, large liquidity blocks dominate the range between $96,000 and $111,000, which has created an important zone for Bitcoin traders to keep an eye on. Related Reading: This Analyst Correctly Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash To $99,000, Here’s What’s Supposed To Happen Next Liquidity heatmaps visualize areas where buy and sell orders accumulate, often serving as potential reversal or breakout points. The presence of significant liquidity in this range suggests that the market could experience heightened volatility once Bitcoin approaches these levels, and inexperienced investors could be caught up in the price action. The liquidity blocks within this range are highlighted in green in the Bitcoin price chart below. These green zones are high-activity zones that act as a magnet for price action. Notably, the largest liquidity cluster lies near $109,700, slightly above Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $108,786, achieved just three days ago. This proximity to this all-time high means that Bitcoin could undergo another strong price action once it reaches this level. There are many market participants with buy and sell orders here around $109,700. Bitcoin Needs To Break Above its Prolonged Sideways Trading Kevin also pointed out Bitcoin’s extended period of sideways trading, which has tested the patience of many investors. He noted that Bitcoin traded sideways for eight months at the end of 2024, followed by a brief surge in price, only to return to another three-month period of low volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Band Moves Above $105,400 – Where Price Is Headed Next Since then, however, the strong bullish momentum has yet to repeat itself. Although long-term holders may still be in profit, short-term traders are feeling the most strain from the lack of any substantial upward price action. The first step in repeating bullish momentum would be to break above the upper end of the liquidation zone at $110,000.  If Bitcoin breaches this range, it could trigger a significant rally or sell-off depending on the prevailing sentiment and trading activity within the zone. However, the lack of liquidity beyond these levels also poses risks, especially below the lower end of the zone. The thinner orders means there isn’t enough hold up liquidity to reject a price breakdown. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,200, down by 2.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The market finds itself at a pivotal crossroads as US President Donald Trump has not issued a crypto or strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) related executive order yet. Renowned crypto analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has reignited the debate via X, questioning whether such a reserve is already “priced in” by current market valuations. Is Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Priced In? The concept of an asset being “priced in” refers to the idea that all known information about a potential event is already reflected in its current price. MacroScope draws parallels between the current speculation surrounding an SBR and the period leading up to the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “In some ways, the discussion about a US strategic Bitcoin reserve mirrors the ETF debate we saw earlier,” MacroScope shared on X. He emphasized that just as ETFs broadened access and increased participation by institutional investors, a government-backed reserve could exponentially expand the pool of capital entering the market. Related Reading: US Bitcoin Reserve: Eric Trump’s Deleted Tweet Raises Eyebrows MacroScope’s analysis is rooted in his observations before the advent of Bitcoin ETFs. During that time, he asserted that ETFs would catalyze a new wave of investment by making Bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. “I posted the below at BTC 44k, a few days before the ETFs started trading,” he recalled. The introduction of ETFs indeed facilitated easier access to Bitcoin, attracting significant institutional and retail interest. MacroScope believes that a similar, albeit more impactful, scenario could unfold with an SBR. Unlike ETFs, which primarily enhance liquidity and accessibility, an SBR would signal a strong governmental endorsement of Bitcoin. According to the analyst, a Bitcoin reserve would expand the “pool of participants, certainly in terms of available capital.” This would have major global implications. [It] would be due to the arms race mentality that would develop. […] The ETFs impacted Bitcoin’s price via easier access. A US strategic reserve will impact price via global psychology and urgency,” he added. Related Reading: Coinbase Joins Push For US Bitcoin Reserve To Strengthen Economy MacroScope referenced a post from the previous year to bolster his argument: “It’s impossible for something to be ‘priced in’ if a huge amount of capital literally doesn’t have access yet. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can buy ahead of an event. But that’s as far as any ‘pricing in’ goes if the pool of participants is about to greatly expand.” Nick Moran, Founder & CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope’s assertions. “Macroscope, you’re dead on with this one,” Moran affirmed. She elaborated on the likelihood of a “mass scale SBR” under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting that such a move would set a precedent for other nations to follow. Political support, though still in nascent stages, appears promising. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the Bitcoin Act, recently stated in a podcast: “Wouldn’t it be fun if the US is buying Bitcoin and it scares China and Russia so they start buying Bitcoin and we have an arms race over Bitcoin instead of over weapons.” Adding to the optimism, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc. and a key advisor to Trump’s campaign on crypto assets, shared his expectations on X following President Trump’s pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “I’m still expecting dedicated bitcoin+crypto EOs in coming days,” Bailey stated, hinting at forthcoming executive orders that could formalize the establishment of an SBR. He further projected: “I also fully expect the President to deliver on the SBR in his first 100 days.” At press time, BTC traded at $102,295. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price has shown a bullish pattern that could cause it to rally to between $150,000 and $170,000. Crypto analyst Gert van Lagen revealed how this could happen and what could come next after this price surge.  Bitcoin Price To Rally To As High As $170,000 Following Wave Formation The Bitcoin price is set to rally to as high as $170,000 following a wave formation. In an X post, Gert van Lagen revealed that Bitcoin had confirmed blow-off wave 5 within the $150,000 and $180,000 range by recently reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $109,000. Following this development, the analyst stated that the flagship crypto is now aiming to reach between $150,000 and $170,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Band Moves Above $105,400 – Where Price Is Headed Next Once the Bitcoin price rallies to between $150,000 and $170,000, Gert Van Lagen predicts that a retracement to as low as $120,000 will follow, with claims of a top. However, the rally to $170,000 won’t mark the cycle top for the flagship crypto as the analyst there will be another parabolic rally to the upside, which will be the wave v to complete the fifth wave.  Gert van Lagen predicts that the Bitcoin price will rally to as high as $300,000 on the last leg of this cycle, which would end the bull market. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could reach this price target by April. This isn’t the first time the analyst has predicted that the flagship crypto could rally to as high as $300,000. He previously highlighted a cup and handle pattern, which put the final ascent for BTC at this price target.  BTC Rally To $158,000 Still In Play Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto also provided a bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price, stating that the projected rally to the $158,000 target is still in play. This target came about when he highlighted a bullish pennant forming on BTC’s monthly timeframe. The analyst remarked that Bitcoin could catapult to the moon if this bullish pattern plays out. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Above $100,000 Renews Hope, Analyst Reveals The Cycle Top Meanwhile, in another X post, Titan of Crypto mentioned that the flagship crypto is back to its bullish momentum as it looks “extremely bullish” on the daily chart. This was based on his Ichimoku Cloud analysis, in which he pointed out that the cloud was turning bullish.  Amid these bullish outlooks for the Bitcoin price, crypto analyst Justin Bennett has warned that the flagship crypto could drop to as low as $91,000. He remarked that Bitcoin pumped into Trump’s inauguration, so there is a good chance that the rally fades from here. The analyst added that BTC is range-bound until proven otherwise and that the January 13th lower wick at $91,000 looks primed for a retest.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $105,402, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

In a move that dashed high-flying expectations, US President Donald J. Trump ended his first day in office without issuing any crypto-related executive orders or referencing the much-touted Strategic Bitcoin Reserve he had teased during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Bitcoin’s price, which had surged to nearly $110,000 on hopes of a landmark announcement, retreated swiftly once it became clear the inauguration address would offer no explicit nod to digital assets. What Next For The Bitcoin Price? Now, with BTC hovering in what analysts describe as no-man’s land, the market looks to the White House for any indication that Trump’s earlier pro-Bitcoin rhetoric might translate into action. Crypto analyst CRG (@MacroCRG) encapsulated the uneasy sentiment on X , claiming that “crypto feeling a bit directionless” could quickly change if Trump simply mentions Bitcoin. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Could Retest Substantially Below $100,000 If This Level Fails CRG argued, “but all its gonna take is 1 mention from Trump and it sends IMO. Trump’s team bought 9 figs of crypto yday, won’t be long until they start blasting hopium.” Some observers maintain that Bitcoin’s overarching technical indicators remain favorable. Markus Thielen, a researcher at Matrixport, commented on X that “since mid-November, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrowing wedge,” stifled by conflicting signals—ranging from higher inflation data to hopes of a supportive White House. Related Reading: 1 Million Bitcoin Pulled From Exchanges In The Past 3 Years: What It Means For The BTC Market According to Thielen, Trump’s inauguration served as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break out of that wedge, but whether this breakout can hold depends on BTC maintaining support around the upper boundary. “Bitcoin is now retesting the breakout level, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the wedge. If Bitcoin holds above this key support, the short-term outlook remains highly bullish, with the breakout signaling renewed upward momentum,” Thielen writes. Renowned analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) pointed out on X that Bitcoin managed to retest key levels, notably at $101,000. While the market saw a harsh rejection from its range high, Rekt Capital emphasizes that this retest of both the “red diagonal” and the “black Range Low” is a strong sign that BTC might consolidate in the $101,000-$106,000 corridor before potentially marching higher again. Meanwhile, trader Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase) hinted at a willingness to go long if Bitcoin dips to around $99,500. He noted: “I’d take a long from 99.5K~ if offered. I think gray box needs to hold for local bullishness and sweeping all the Trump leadup / news PA makes sense. I’d also accept a sweep of the 97K low, but that’s farthest it should go. Any good amount of time spent past 96-97K and my plan / read is likely off. Inval low 90’s, aiming for new ATH’s. 3R~ trade.” Despite Wednesday’s disappointment, many believe the president’s pro-Bitcoin stance remains intact. David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc. and a key figure in Trump’s shift toward a more Bitcoin and crypto-friendly position, took to X today, revealing: “Got confirmation tonight that our EOs are among the first 200. I have no idea what made it in, but good news cometh.” Bailey also stated these include “EOs related to Bitcoin or crypto,” leaving open the possibility of a sudden policy bombshell. Should such an order materialize, markets could quickly pivot back into bullish territory. For now, however, traders and investors remain in limbo, awaiting that elusive official statement or executive order—from the White House that might reignite Bitcoin’s momentum. At press time, BTC traded at $103,182. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A crypto analyst who accurately forecasted the Bitcoin price crash to $99,000 has now made another notable prediction for the pioneer cryptocurrency. While the analyst’s previously bearish projection was driven by volatility and waning market demand for Bitcoin, his new forecast sees the cryptocurrency skyrocketing to new highs above $110,000, fueled by its recent bullish performance.  Bitcoin To Retest Key Support As Next Move From a technical perspective, TradingView crypto analyst R.Linda has pinpointed the range between $102,500 and $100,000 as a critical support zone for Bitcoin. The analyst highlights that if Bitcoin can retest and maintain a price above this zone, it could set the stage for a potential market rally to new ATHs of $120,000 in the mid-term.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Band Moves Above $105,400 – Where Price Is Headed Next According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently trading at $108,594, experiencing a dramatic 4.65% rise in the past 24 hours. R. Linda suggests that this recent price rally may result from strong accumulation and growing investor confidence. Given Bitcoin’s growing momentum, the TradingView market expert has set new resistance levels at $103,600, $105,700, and $107,500. She believes a successful breakout from these levels could propel Bitcoin to retest new bullish targets between the $108,000 and $112,000 range.  Despite correctly predicting the recent Bitcoin crash to $99,000, the analyst believes another failure to hold above the $100,000 mark could temporarily stall a price rally, with the possibility of a more resounding crash. R. Linda stated that Bitcoin may form a correction pattern, potentially experiencing a slight pullback to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $100,000, or even as low as $97,500. Moving ahead, Bitcoin’s overall trend remains bullish as long as its price quickly recovers from any projected declines and stays above critical support levels. The $102,500 level is highlighted as a pivotal price point expected to trigger Bitcoin’s bullish continuation.  Bitcoin’s Current Market Condition  According to R. Linda, Bitcoin surprised the market again by rallying more than 18% over the past week after surpassing previous support zones. The flagship cryptocurrency quickly reignited previous bullish sentiment after retesting “the panic and risk zone” when selling pressures significantly rose. Related Reading: Pundit Says Bitcoin Price Will Break Above $100,000 If This Happens This sharp price increase has been attributed to technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors. R. Linda has stated an increase in activity from institutional investors and the major players in the space. She suggested that Donald Trump’s inauguration as the President of the United States (US) and speculations about favorable crypto policies under his administration have also significantly contributed to Bitcoin’s recent rebound.  The bullish combination has solidified Bitcoin’s position, creating a strong momentum that has attracted new buyers and increased institutional interest from players globally. R. Linda highlights that Bitcoin’s price action in the past three days suggests a strong consolidation and accumulation phase, where buyers aggressively defend the price area between $91,000 and $89,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s recent rise above $100,000 has kept the market on edge as bullish momentum attempts to establish a new liquidity zone beyond this milestone. This push has introduced significant volatility over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $99,701 and $106,307 during this period. This intense volatility has allowed Bitcoin to achieve a daily close above a key confluent resistance level that had capped its price action for the past month. Despite this progress, Bitcoin continues to test the $106,000 upper boundary, and a decisive rejection at this level could trigger a downturn, potentially driving the price as low as $91,000. Bitcoin Successfully Closes Above Confluent Resistance According to technical analysis from crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has managed a daily close above a significant confluent resistance level. This was noted in a technical analysis of the Bitcoin daily candlestick price action posted on social media platform X and emphasizes a key event in Bitcoin’s rally. The confluent resistance in question is defined by two critical elements: a horizontal resistance trendline at $101,165 and a descending trendline, which has been consistently marking lower highs since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $108,135 on December 18, 2024. Related Reading: Crypto Fear And Greed Index Barrels Toward Extreme Greed Again As Bitcoin Price Clears $101,000, Is This Good News? Since breaking out of this confluence area, Bitcoin has managed to push towards $106,000, but candlestick formations are starting to reveal a slowdown in momentum. Particularly, Bitcoin has created a hammer candlestick and a doji candlestick in successive days, both of which are traditionally associated with a slowdown in momentum or potential market indecision. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be waning as quickly and opens up the possibility of a downward move to retest the confluence area it just broke out from. BTC Needs To Hold Above This Level Maintaining a position above the breakout confluence area is crucial for determining Bitcoin’s next move. As Rekt Capital highlighted, a sustained rejection at the $106,000 level could cause a downward movement to retest the confluence area, which is highlighted with the green circle in the chart above. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Band Moves Above $105,400 – Where Price Is Headed Next If Bitcoin does retest this zone, two potential scenarios could unfold. The first, and more bullish outcome, would involve a successful retest followed by a rebound at the confluence area. This behavior is characteristic of post-breakout price action, where a pullback strengthens the new support and allows the price to gather momentum for another leg upward. Conversely, the second scenario is more bearish. If Bitcoin fails to hold above the confluence support, the cryptocurrency could face increased selling pressure and trigger a deeper correction. According to Rekt Capital’s analysis, the next significant support levels to watch are $91,070 and $87,325. A decline to these levels would represent a substantial pullback and might reset market expectations for the short term. Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,100. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

With the Bitcoin price back above $100,000, there have been discussions about what could mark the cycle top for the flagship crypto. Crypto analyst Tony Severino has provided some insights on this, revealing around what price target the market top could be considered.  Potential Cycle Top For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Tony Severino suggested that the cycle top for the Bitcoin price could be around $170,000. This came as he noted that a 90% surge could take the flagship crypto to this price level. He added that it is at this level that the cycle tops can then be considered, indicating that the BTC top in this cycle would likely be around this range.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu Price Gearing Up To Fly After Lows, Here’s The Target The crypto analyst also discussed the current Bitcoin price action. He remarked that a mid-trend re-squeeze can lead to a continuation of the uptrend. Severino added that Bitcoin above $105,000 gets interesting, suggesting that is where the flagship crypto could witness a parabolic rally to a new all-time high (ATH).  Severino alluded to the last time the Bitcoin price got a head fake to the lower band before moving to the upper band. He further remarked that from the wick low at the lower band to the local high was a 90% move. As such, this is why the analyst is confident that Bitcoin could witness another 90% surge to the $170,000 target before the cycle top is in.  Before now, the crypto analyst had also assured that the Bitcoin price is still bullish because of the monthly stochastic oscillator, which is still above 80. The tool is used to measure momentum, and the indicator being above 80 typically suggests strong upward momentum. Historically, the monthly stochastic being above 80 has also led to a continuation of the BTC rally.  Holding $100,000 As Support Is Crucial In an X post, crypto analyst Jelle suggested that the Bitcoin price holding $100,000 as support is the next most crucial step for a continuation of the upward trend. He noted that Bitcoin is pushing into the $100,000 resistance level, which lines up with the local downtrend line as well.  Related Reading: Pundit Says Bitcoin Price Will Break Above $100,000 If This Happens The crypto analyst remarked that he expects a Bitcoin price breakout soon. He also predicts there will be much higher prices once that happens. In another X post, Jelle alluded to Bitcoin’s funding rate, which is currently in the green. In line with this, he asserted that the flagship crypto would run “red-hot” for weeks on end before this bull cycle is over. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $99,700, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com