THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

A new report by Reuters suggests that China may be looking to liquidate large stashes of confiscated Bitcoin, potentially exerting downward pressure on BTC’s price. Sources cited by Reuters indicate that local Chinese governments have been engaging private companies to convert seized Bitcoin into cash, in an effort to bolster public finances under strain from a slowing economy. Chinese Authorities Could Offload 15,000 Bitcoin The Chinese ban on Bitcoin and crypto trading stands in tension with these liquidation efforts, prompting legal experts, senior judges, and law enforcement officials to call for clearer regulations. Reuters quotes Chen Shi, a professor at the Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, who described these disposals as “a makeshift solution that, strictly speaking, is not fully in line with China’s current ban on crypto trading.” Chen attended a seminar earlier this year alongside various government officials to debate potential changes to the rules, underscoring the urgency of creating a consistent framework for handling seized virtual currencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1 Million? BPI Says One US Move Could Make It Happen China’s existing lack of transparency in dealing with confiscated digital coins has fueled concerns about corruption and emboldening further crypto-related crimes. The Reuters report highlights an alarming rise in such offenses: money involved in Bitcoin and crypto-related crimes surged to 430.7 billion yuan (roughly $59 billion) in 2023, reflecting a tenfold increase according to blockchain security firm SAFEIS. Further underscoring the scale of the issue, the country’s top procurator has recorded 3,032 people sued for Bitcoin and crypto-related money laundering last year. While Beijing forbids crypto trading and refuses to recognize digital tokens as legal tender or valid assets, the Reuters investigation points to a parallel reality where local governments rely on proceeds from these forced liquidations. Jiafenxiang, a Shenzhen-based technology company, reportedly sold cryptocurrencies worth more than 3 billion yuan in offshore markets on behalf of various municipal authorities in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. The US dollar proceeds from these transactions were then exchanged for yuan and transferred to local finance bureaus. Debate on potential reforms has unfolded at a time of heightened tensions between China and the US amidst Donald Trump’s second presidency, a period marked by the former American president’s push to deregulate cryptocurrencies and build a strategic BTC reserve. Guo Zhihao, a lawyer based in Shenzhen, believes China’s central bank should consider a similar strategy for seized Bitcoin and crypto assets, suggesting that “China’s central bank is better positioned to handle the cryptocurrencies, and should either sell them overseas or build a crypto reserve from seized tokens like Trump plans to.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Undervalued? Analyst Breaks Down Bullish On-Chain Metrics Other legal analysts, such as Sun Jun from Shanghai Landing Law Offices, see lucrative opportunities for private firms that help local governments dispose of large crypto holdings. Sun, however, stresses the importance of robust guidelines and vetting procedures, urging China to clarify the legal status of these tokens, set up a centralized disposal system, and regulate the entities involved. According to Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at NYU Law School and former managing director of China Investment Corp, a more centralized approach would help the country “maximize the value of the seized cryptocurrencies,” possibly through a crypto sovereign fund in Hong Kong, where digital trading is permitted. The potential for Beijing to retain some of these seized assets has also fueled broader speculation, particularly since China’s local governments collectively held an estimated 15,000 Bitcoins, making the Chinese state one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders worldwide. Observers note that part of China’s crypto holdings likely originates from the country’s crackdown on illicit activities, including the high-profile PlusToken Ponzi scheme, which led to the seizure of 194,775 Bitcoin. According to crypto intelligence firm Arkham, these tokens were transferred to the national treasury in November 2020, though it remains unclear whether the holdings have been sold or remain in China’s possession. At press time, BTC traded at $84,071. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price appears to be moving in lockstep with a bullish prediction made by a crypto analyst earlier this month. According to the analyst’s forecast, Bitcoin is set to break out to a new all-time high above $120,000 following the announcement of a temporary tariff pause by United States (US) President Donald Trump.  $120,000 Bitcoin Price Forecast In Motion Kaduna, a crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter), has released a follow-up analysis on his previous bullish prediction of Bitcoin, highlighting that it is playing out as expected. On April 11, the analyst predicted that Bitcoin was preparing for a massive push above $120,000.  Related Reading: Trump’s Tariff Pause Could Push Bitcoin Price Above $100,000, Pundit Reveals Exit Point He outlined a thesis that the 90-day suspension of President Trump’s Tariffs would act as a powerful macroeconomic catalyst for Bitcoin. Kaduna argued that the market may start “frontrunning” about a month early, culminating in a mini bull market during a 55-day “exit window” between April 3 and June 3 2025.  Accompanying this bullish analysis was a detailed chart comparing Bitcoin’s price movements through candlesticks with a blue overlay, believed to represent a macroeconomic indicator such as global M2. The blue line in the chart projects a steady climb during this window, offering a clear visual target above $120,000. Kaduna had stated that if his prediction played out, he would exit most positions by the end of the window.  Just days after his bullish forecast, Bitcoin has begun mirroring the projected path. Kaduna revealed in a follow-up candlestick chart that Bitcoin is breaking above the local resistance at $84,000 with strong volume support, aligning with the predicted overlay. This early strength suggests that the frontrunning behaviour the crypto expert projected earlier is now playing out in real time.  The blue line suggests a potential move toward the $120,000 – $125,000 range over the next month and a half, setting a clear upside target if momentum continues. Bitcoin’s price action is also unfolding right on cue within the 55-day window, validating the analyst’s bullish thesis. Both the overlay and Bitcoin’s prices are trending upwards, signaling that the market is indeed reacting to the macroeconomic tariff catalyst. If this trajectory holds, it would mark a significant validation of the analyst’s macro-technical analysis approach.  Update On The Bitcoin Price Action Following its crash below $80,000, the Bitcoin price seems to be on a path to recovery. CoinMarketCap’s data reveals that Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,395, marking a significant 7.16% increase over the past week.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms This Bullish Pennant On Daily Chart That Could Trigger Rise To $137,000 The cryptocurrency had broken the resistance level at $84,000 earlier this week. However, it retraced sold gains and is now trading at its present market value. Given its fluctuating price and unstable market, crypto analysts like Tony Severino have revealed that he is neither bullish nor bearish on Bitcoin. Instead, he seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring how the market responds to ongoing volatility driven by the US Trade war and tariff implementation. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

In the latest installment of the “Bitcoin Policy Hour,” a weekly podcast produced by the nonprofit Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), leading members of the organization discussed how a single policy decision by the United States government might catapult the price of Bitcoin to extraordinary new highs. According to Executive Director Matthew Pines, the world’s monetary framework has remained largely the same since 1973, when the global financial system pivoted away from a full gold standard. “When you think about the monetary system we currently live in,” he said, “it’s been around since 1973 and gone through a number of crises and evolutions, but the fundamental structure of it really hasn’t changed.” He then pointed out that because nations such as China have emerged as industrial, military, and financial heavyweights, the stability of that long-standing dollar-based system is under challenge in ways not seen in decades. Head of Policy Zach Shapiro added that concerns about losing trust in the US dollar and its reserve asset—the US Treasury security—have fueled discussions around alternatives. “If you want to talk about what else could be a reserve asset,” he said, “gold is an obvious candidate.” He added that since the United States froze Russia’s Treasury reserves last year, “there has been a feeling from central banks around the world that treasuries are becoming less of a neutral reserve asset… and so foreign governments have been stacking gold.” That could clear some runway for Bitcoin to replace or supplement gold’s historic role—especially if the Trump administration announces their first Bitcoin buy. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Pullback Mirrors 2017’s Path To Parabolic Highs, Says Analyst When asked about the longstanding policy idea of “marking gold to market” and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, Shapiro explained that formally revaluing America’s statutory gold price—still set by law at around $42 per ounce even though world markets trade gold above $3,200—could generate what he called a “large surplus on Treasury’s books that we could then spend on stuff.” He mentioned that if those proceeds were directed into Bitcoin, “it would be a one-time trick that adds almost a trillion dollars to our balance sheet on paper. But why are we doing that and why do we think now is the time?” Pines emphasized the global implications. “The gold certificates are a subplot in this larger strategic competitive dynamic,” he said, referencing ongoing trade friction and technology restrictions between the US and China. “When you have the great powers of the world deciding they’re going to up the ante against each other, you’ll see moves in many domains: tariffs, export controls, currency systems, and yes, monetary assets such as gold and Bitcoin.” Discussion then turned to a White House executive order issued in March that formalized the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and instructed agencies to conduct a Bitcoin audit, with results due to the President’s Working Group on digital assets. Pines noted that “it literally said Bitcoin is digital gold, is in our strategic interest, and that we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” even though, in his words, “people outside the US government at first questioned whether that was real or just a campaign promise.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: What Experts Anticipate Following The Jump Toward $85,000 Shapiro confirmed the White House did indeed require each agency to identify which digital assets it currently owns from forfeiture or other means. “By statute, they had thirty days to do this,” he explained. “But that report goes to the Secretary of the Treasury and the President’s Working Group, not necessarily the public.” While the White House order also urged budget-neutral methods of acquiring new Bitcoin, no single agency has yet outlined exactly how they intend to do it. Both Pines and Shapiro said that internal government debates, as well as confusion about what “budget neutral” means, might slow implementation. “It can’t impact other budget line items,” said Shapiro. “But tariffs, for instance, are not something that costs the American taxpayer money directly, and that’s one way that’s been floated to raise funds for Bitcoin. Selling assets already on the government’s balance sheet is another. That’s budget neutral too.” If the Trump administration does indeed buy Bitcoin, the price implication could be massive, according to the BPI. Shapiro stated: “If the United States announces that we are buying a million Bitcoin, that’s just a global seismic shock. I think that really is a big deal. I think first the Bitcoin price goes through the roof. I think we will probably go very quickly to something like a million dollars per Bitcoin.” However, the geo-political could be even greater, Shapiro added: “Then you have to wait and see what sort of dominoes fall from that. What are the second order effects of Bitcoin, just being monetized on a faster trajectory than I think a lot of people anticipate. The first is a sort of reaction from other nation states’ reactions […] I suspect that Bitcoin being monetized that strongly and that quickly would have a negative impact on sort of the long-term outlook for gold.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,594. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin open interest has remained on the high side despite the price declines, suggesting that interest in the leading cryptocurrency by market cap remains abundant. This interest is no doubt a good thing for the crypto market, especially in the long-term. But looking back at previous trends involving the Bitcoin open interest, it is concerning that the value is still so high and this could hinder a recovery for the Bitcoin price from here. Bitcoin Open Interest Still Above $56 Billion Data from the Coinglass website shows that the Bitcoin open interest is still quite high and not far off from its November 2024 highs after the BTC price hit a new peak above $109,000. This consistently high open interest signifies traders still taking considerable positions in the digital asset despite its price falling over 20% since then, something that could be a hindrance to recovery. Related Reading: Analyst Who Called Dogecoin Price Rally In 2024 Predicts 300% Rally In April The total Bitcoin open interest is currently sitting at $56.17 billion, falling approximately 22% from its all-time high of $71.85 billion. This shows a close correlation between how much the price has fallen compared to the open interest. However, the open interest remaining this high could have some negative implications for the BTC price and the crypto market by extension. For example, looking at the chart above, it is obvious that Bitcoin has seen its largest moves upward when the open interest has been low. This suggests that the lack of market pressure gives bulls the space to push the price upward. Hence, with the open interest still so high, it could be much harder to push the price higher. Given this, the BTC price could see further decline before there is more recovery from here. BTC Price Crash Below $70,000 Imminent? Besides the Bitcoin open interest remaining high, a crypto analyst has also given reasons why the BTC price could see a crash from here. The first factor given is the fake bullish divergence. According to the analysis, the RSI may be showing a bullish divergence but the price action isn’t following it. Hence, this could lead to a bull trap, pulling traders into losses as the price crashes. Related Reading: Is The XRP Price Mirroring Bitcoin’s Macro Action? Analyst Maps Out How It Could Get To $71 Another factor given is the fact that the Bitcoin price has broken a trendline support after falling to the low $80,000s. This suggests that bullish momentum is weakening and the recent recovery might not hold. Given the factors listed above, the crypto analyst expects the Bitcoin price to fall another 20% from here. The target is placed at $69,149, which is an all-time high from 2021. “This level coincides with the intersection of the mid-channel support line and horizontal price structure,” the analyst explains. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

In an investor note dated April 15, 2025, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, shared an examination of Bitcoin’s recent trading patterns that may surprise both critics and supporters. “Bitcoin is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if only macro obstacles would get out of the way,” he wrote. According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s price on April 14 hovered around $84,379, compared to $84,317 a month earlier—a minuscule change of 0.07% during a 30-day window. This flat performance emerged against the backdrop of two significant geopolitical events: the United States announcing the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and President Donald Trump imposing sweeping tariffs on countries around the globe. The resilience that Bitcoin has shown during this period stands in stark contrast to the broader downward trend in traditional financial markets. Hougan pointed out that the S&P 500, which peaked on February 19, has lost 12.0% of its value, with Bitcoin down a comparable 12.4% since that date. He found this alignment astonishing, particularly because it departs from Bitcoin’s behavior during past market downturns. In the 2022 correction, for example, the S&P 500 slid 24.5% while Bitcoin plunged 58.3%. Similarly, at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, stocks fell 33.8% but Bitcoin sank 38.1%, and in late 2018, when escalating trade tensions between the United States and China dragged equities down 19.36%, Bitcoin declined 37.22%. This track record had historically reinforced the notion that, when stocks took a hit, Bitcoin would invariably suffer a far steeper pullback. Related Reading: Bitcoin Lags Gold As Wall Street Doubts Persist, Claims Expert In his latest note, Hougan emphasized how different the present situation feels. Instead of being battered well beyond the equity market’s turbulence, Bitcoin is now mirroring stock losses closely. He acknowledged that this alone does not make Bitcoin an unequivocal hedge asset, adding, “Critics will point out that matching stocks’ performance during a downturn is not the same as acting as a hedge asset, and that gold has been a better performer than Bitcoin during this pullback. That’s true.” Nonetheless, he argued that Bitcoin’s ability to stay around the $80,000 mark while global markets churn is a testament to its robust staying power in the face of multiple macroeconomic shocks. “If that doesn’t give you confidence in its staying power, I don’t know what will,” he remarked. Hougan’s view is that we are witnessing a transitional phase in Bitcoin’s evolution. He explained that the cryptocurrency has historically been driven by two competing forces: it has served as a risk asset, associated with significant upside potential and high volatility, yet it has also occasionally taken on the role of a hedge similar to gold. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Pullback Mirrors 2017’s Path To Parabolic Highs, Says Analyst In Bitcoin’s early days, the risk-asset angle tended to dominate; in major equity sell-offs, investors often shed Bitcoin faster and more aggressively than they exited stocks. Now, with more corporations integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, institutional investors exploring it as part of diversified portfolios, and governments—like the United States—incorporating it into strategic reserves, there appears to be a gradual tilt toward Bitcoin being treated more like “digital gold.” . Still, Hougan warned that investors should not overlook the inherent unpredictability in the current macro environment. He noted that equity markets may not yet have found a bottom, raising the possibility that deeper slides could re-expose Bitcoin’s vulnerability if broader panic sets in. He also conceded that gold’s performance remains a more classic example of a safe-haven behavior during systemic shocks, meaning Bitcoin has not conclusively demonstrated that it can replace traditional hedges during intense economic strain. Even so, in his words, “The world is unraveling, and Bitcoin is trading above $80,000.” Hougan underscored that there is no guarantee this dynamic will endure, particularly given the unpredictable repercussions that could stem from sudden tariff escalations or shifts in monetary policy. As he concluded in his note, “Our baby is growing up as a macro asset. And that’s a beautiful thing to see.” At press time, BTC traded at $85,200. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price continues to face headwinds, as the latest report on Digital Asset Fund Flows shows a staggering $751 million in outflows from the digital asset. The sheer volume of this withdrawal raises alarm bells about whether institutions may be cashing out from the flagship cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price Faces Pressure Amid Massive Outflows CoinShares’ weekly report on Digital Asset Fund Flows has disclosed a massive $795 million in outflows from the crypto market—shockingly, $751 million of which came from Bitcoin alone. This mass exodus marks one of the largest single-week outflows of the year, and it comes at a time when the price of Bitcoin has hit a wall. Related Reading: $9.41 Billion In Shorts At Risk Of Liquidation If Bitcoin Price Hits This Level James Butterfill, the Head of Research at CoinShares, revealed that since early February 2025, digital asset investment products have suffered cumulative outflows of approximately $7.2 billion, effectively erasing almost all the year-to-date inflows. Notably, this week marks the third consecutive week of declines, with Bitcoin leading the downturn and recording the most significant losses among major digital assets.  As of this report, net flows for 2025 have dwindled to a modest $165 million, a sharp drop from a multi-billion dollar peak just two months ago. This steep decline underscores a cooling sentiment among institutional investors and highlights a growing sense of caution amid ongoing market volatility. Currently, the Bitcoin price is struggling to regain past all-time highs, with recent outflows serving as one of the many barriers hindering the cryptocurrency’s breakout potential. Until these outflows reverse and the market stabilizes, Bitcoin’s path to setting new all-time highs remains challenged.  Despite losing $751 million in outflows, Bitcoin still maintains a moderately positive position with $545 million in net year-to-date inflows. However, the sheer scale and speed of the latest outflows raise concern. The fact that Bitcoin suffered such a massive withdrawal signals a potential shift in sentiment among institutions. Whether it’s due to profit-taking or macroeconomic uncertainty, this move suggests that big players are beginning to pull out — at least in the short term.  In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum saw $37 million in outflows, while Solana, Aave, and SUI also posted losses of $5.1 million, $0.78 million, and $0.58 million, respectively. Surprisingly, even short Bitcoin products, designed to benefit from market downturns, weren’t spared, recording $4.6 million in outflows.  Tariffs And Political Volatility Drive Outflows One of the key drivers behind the pullback across digital assets is the rising economic uncertainty sparked by tariff policies that have adversely influenced investor sentiment. The wave of negative sentiment began in February after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on all imports coming into the country from Canada, Mexico, and China. Related Reading: Trump’s Tariff Pause Could Push Bitcoin Price Above $100,000, Pundit Reveals Exit Point However, a late-week rebound in crypto prices was seen after Trump’s temporary reversal of the controversial tariffs, providing a brief respite for the market. This policy shift helped boost total Asset Under Management (AUM) across digital assets from a low of $120 billion on April 8 to $130 billion, marking an 8% recovery. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

In a market update, prominent crypto commentator Rekt Capital examined Bitcoin’s latest dip through the lens of previous bull cycles, asserting that it closely resembles the 2017 pattern of multiple corrections en route to a parabolic top. Speaking in a video titled “Where’s The Bitcoin ‘Banana Zone’? – An Update,” the analyst referred to the “banana zone” as “effectively a term of endearment for the parabolic phase of the cycle when it comes to Bitcoin’s price action.” He described the current retracement as a natural but extended correction, emphasizing that it is “still on track” despite many traders feeling discouraged. Will Bitcoin Enter ‘The Banana Zone’ Again? Rekt Capital drew parallels between the present dip and historical market behavior, spotlighting the cyclical tendency for Bitcoin to experience two or more corrective periods once it breaks into new all-time highs. Citing the 2017 rally, he noted that there were instances of “34% to 38% to 40%” pullbacks, at least four in total, before the ultimate peak was reached. He also referenced 2013’s bumpy ascents and traced them against today’s price movement, explaining that “when we break to new all-time highs, it can get a little bit bumpy” both around old highs and immediately following new ones. Despite the current drawdown of 32% (max height), he maintained that “we’re going to see additional upside after this corrective period like we’ve seen in the past” and classified the market’s present position as part of the first of two probable corrections in the current price discovery phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly RSI Breakout Signals Trend Shift – Is $100,000 Next For BTC? Throughout his analysis, Rekt Capital underscored the importance of patience, noting that what might feel like a prolonged drawdown is not “out of the ordinary” for Bitcoin which historically endures multiple phases of uptrends and retracements on its way to a peak. “What’s out of the ordinary,” he said, “is that it’s taking longer, but it’s going to enable that next price discovery uptrend in the future.” He provided historical context by looking back at mid-2017 and other phases when Bitcoin underwent repeated downturns that ranged from around 30% to 40%. According to him, these corrections often deepen as the cycle progresses, although the final one before the next major move can sometimes be shallower. The analyst also delved into technical indicators such as the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price has begun forming a triangular market structure as it becomes “sandwiched in between the 21-week EMA and the 50-week EMA.” He drew comparisons to the mid-2021 period, when a similar formation preceded a 55% downside move that eventually broke out into another bullish phase. “We ended that period with a weekly close and post-breakout retest of the 21-week EMA into support,” he recounted, predicting that a similar situation could see Bitcoin rally toward the $93,500 level if the move above the 21-week EMA holds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Lags Gold As Wall Street Doubts Persist, Claims Expert In addressing concerns that the market is entering a bear cycle, Rekt Capital asserted that “it’s not a bear market like everybody is saying.” While he acknowledged the emotional toll of large pullbacks and the prevalence of conflicting signals in the media, he advised keeping a level head and focusing on strong indications such as moving-average confluence, historical correction ranges, and the fact that “we’re in this first price discovery correction” rather than any final downturn. According to his outlook, the crypto’s price is still following the overarching blueprint set by previous bull runs, even if it is “a little bit of a deep one” and has disappointed traders hoping for more immediate parabolic momentum. Rekt Capital concluded his commentary by stressing reaccumulation phases are part of a lasting bull-market framework rather than the onset of a prolonged downtrend. At press time, BTC traded at $85,914. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, reclaims the crucial $85,000 mark on Monday, top analysts are projecting heightened volatility in the market for the coming week.  Bitcoin Eyes Key Liquidity Zones Above $90,000 Crypto analyst CrypNuevo provided insights in a recent update on social media site X (formerly Twitter), emphasizing that despite the chaos surrounding tariffs and potential market manipulation, there are key data points and trends to monitor.  The analyst highlighted the importance of liquidity and price action in the days ahead, noting that liquidations are primarily concentrated in the upside range between $90,000 and $91,500—psychological levels for many traders. With Bitcoin gaining 7% on the weekly time frame, potential for a move to tackle these liquidity zones might be expected, further recovering from the cryptocurrency’s crash toward $74,000 experienced last week.  Related Reading: XRP Tests Ascending Triangle Resistance – Can Bulls Reach $2.40 Level? CrypNuevo also mentioned that the current liquidation delta is relatively balanced, with approximately $15 billion in long positions at maximum liquidity. He suggested that a threshold of over $25 billion in liquidations would warrant closer attention.  The analyst’s ideal scenario for the coming week involves price compression between the daily and weekly 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), as of now placed at approximately $86,000, which could lead to a significant expansion in price.  Rising Wedge Formation Analysts often look for patterns in market behavior, and CrypNuevo speculated that a third retest could occur, following the market’s tendency to move in threes.  The analyst alleges that this would further compress prices, potentially leading to a more aggressive breakout later on. He identified a key mid-range support line at $81,000, suggesting that while this scenario may be slightly less likely, it remains a possibility. Another prominent analyst, Ali Martinez, echoed these sentiments on social media, identifying the critical support level for Bitcoin at $82,024, where approximately 96,580 BTC were previously accumulated.  Related Reading: Cardano Could Drop To $0.54 If This Support Gives Out, Analyst Says This zone could be of key support for the cryptocurrency in case of CrypNuevo’s scenario of further retests taking place in the coming days for BTC’s price. However, Ali Martinez also pointed out on social media that BTC may be forming a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a potential retest of the $79,000 support level. While Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $85,000, it still remains over 21% below its all-time high of $109,000, which was reached in January of this year.  However, with the current market sentiment indicating a renewed sense of bullishness, this gap may close rapidly over the course of the month. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price rallying to as high as $137,000. The analyst highlighted a bullish pattern that shows the flagship crypto can reach this ambitious price target.  Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $137,000 As Bullish Pennant Forms In an X post, Titan of Crypto suggested that the Bitcoin price could reach $137,000 at some point. This came as he revealed that BTC has formed a bullish pennant on the daily chart. The analyst remarked that if this plays out, a new all-time high (ATH) could be reached, regardless of the current market sentiment.  Related Reading: This Crypto Analyst Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash At $97,000, He Just Released Another Forecast His accompanying chart showed that $137,129 was the target for the Bitcoin price as it eyes a rally to new highs. The analyst indicated the key was to see if the flagship crypto could break to the upside in the coming weeks. In the meantime, BTC looks to be facing a lot of resistance and bearish pressure. In his Ichimoku cloud analysis of the Bitcoin price action, the analyst stated that BTC is now facing resistance with a fair gap value and entry into the Kumo cloud. He outlined two scenarios that could play out for the flagship crypto. The first is a continuation through the cloud, while the second is a retest of the Kijun and the trendline before continuation.  His accompanying chart indicated that the key was to break above the range of around $84,000. A successful breakout from this range could lead to a rally to as high as $92,000. This could eventually pave the way for the Bitcoin price to rally to new highs, especially with the psychological $100,000 level in sight once BTC reclaims $92,000.  Key Resistance At $86,000 In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that $86,000 is a key resistance zone for the Bitcoin price. He stated that a rejection from this zone could send BTC back to $79,000. However, a breakout might open the path for the flagship crypto to rally to as high as $97,000.  Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000 Crypto whales are still actively accumulating BTC, which is positive for the Bitcoin price. Martinez revealed that 37,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 24 hours, which the analyst noted is a strong signal of accumulation. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital believes that the Bitcoin price structure is still bearish for now. In an X post, he stated that a break above $89,000 would mean BTC is back in action. Until then, he asserted that there is no real reason to get overly hyped at the current level.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $84,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Last week was defined by simultaneous declines in US equities, Treasurys, and the dollar—an exceptionally rare trifecta that macro investor Jordi Visser described as the moment “the system officially broke”—Bitcoin’s price action has remained conspicuously muted. Despite gold rallying over 4% in just a few days, Bitcoin has failed to respond with comparable strength, a divergence that Visser attributes to deep-rooted skepticism from institutional finance. Visser, president and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers and a veteran of over three decades on Wall Street, sat down for an in-depth interview with Anthony Pompliano to unpack what he called a historic rupture in the global capital structure. Central to his thesis is that US government bonds—long considered the most risk-free asset in the world—are no longer behaving as such. “The top of the global capital structure, the safest asset in the world, is falling,” Visser said, referring to US Treasurys underperforming even against other sovereign debt. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Last Drawdown To $74,000 A ‘Healthy Correction’ — Analyst Says Month-to-date, he noted, US bonds are down over 5%, equities have also dropped more than 5%, and the US dollar index is off by a similar magnitude. “The currency, bonds, and stocks all going down in a panic way—that doesn’t happen. The last time I saw that was in emerging markets,” Visser said, drawing parallels to financial crises he observed firsthand in Brazil during the 1990s. What This Means For Bitcoin The implications for Bitcoin in this environment are complex. While many in the crypto community expected BTC to surge amid macro instability, Visser says Wall Street still views Bitcoin through an equity-like lens. “Wall Street doesn’t believe in Bitcoin,” he said bluntly. “The problem is the view on Bitcoin is that it’s NASDAQ. So I don’t think it should be skyrocketing like gold yet. That happens when we get the printing press turned on again—which is going to have to happen.” According to Visser, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold is not a repudiation of its long-term thesis but rather a reflection of who holds what, and when they’re allowed to act. “Gold’s a different story. Sovereign wealth funds already own it. Central banks already own it. Hedge funds love to buy gold. Bitcoin? Not yet.” He emphasized that Bitcoin’s moment will likely come not amid the crisis itself, but in its aftermath, when monetary authorities begin resorting to aggressive stimulus—what he termed “debasement,” historically the go-to solution in past crises. Visser was adamant that despite Bitcoin’s price inertia, it is in fact doing its job: “Bitcoin is the digital asset of the digital economy.” In his view, the current turmoil marks the transition from a unipolar, dollar-centric world to a fragmented, multipolar one. “We’re entering a new world, and this new system is decentralized,” he said. That transition, accelerated by both geopolitical fragmentation and advances in AI, is unlikely to be smooth. Visser predicts increased volatility and declining trust in legacy financial infrastructure, which could serve as long-term tailwinds for Bitcoin. His analysis ties Bitcoin’s trajectory closely to global liquidity cycles, noting that much of the world’s debt is denominated in US dollars. As such, a falling dollar paradoxically boosts liquidity globally, particularly for emerging markets and risk assets. “Bitcoin will be four to eight weeks—four to 10 weeks—later,” he said, referring to its lagging correlation with liquidity expansions. “You’ll look back eight weeks from now and say, ‘I can’t believe I didn’t see they were going to print to stop this thing.’ They do it every single time.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Buying Again — Can They Push BTC Price Higher? Still, he was clear-eyed about the near-term structural headwinds. Institutional allocators, especially hedge funds, face two major constraints: investor redemptions and prime broker margin requirements. “Wall Street has an embedded side that prevents them from going through it,” Visser explained. “Retail just buys more on the dip. Wall Street can’t.” Even in the face of institutional hesitancy, Visser underscored that the global conversation around trade, capital flows, and currency trust is now permanently altered. “Does the US want to be the reserve currency anymore?” he asked. “From a government official perspective in trade, it’s no longer the reserve currency. The trade deficit has been put in by the administration.” The consequence, he warned, is that the US is now effectively exporting fiscal deficits to other nations as global trade recedes. In such a world—where nationalism replaces globalism and bilateral trust continues to erode—Visser believes decentralized systems will inevitably grow more relevant. “I do think the agreement will end up being that decentralization will speed up from here because of AI and because of crypto,” he said. But he cautioned that while the architecture is being laid, mainstream acceptance remains gated by perception, policy, and institutional adoption cycles. In sum, Visser sees Bitcoin not as a failed safe haven, but as an emergent asset still waiting for its structural breakout moment. Until Wall Street stops viewing Bitcoin as a risk-on tech proxy—and until central banks inevitably revert to monetary stimulus—BTC will remain in the shadows of gold. But he was unequivocal in where he believes it’s headed. “We are getting closer to that day every single day,” he said, referring to the moment when Bitcoin’s role in the global capital system finally clicks into place. As Visser sees it, the system may be broken—but that’s precisely how something new gets built. At press time, BTC traded at $84,689. Featured image from YouTube, char from TradingView.com

Bitcoin could be setting the stage for a major reversal, according to crypto analyst BTCEarth. In a recent post on X, the analyst pointed to a key support zone that continues to hold firm, reinforcing the possibility of a bottom formation.  Notably, the analyst said the price action has “respected the long-standing blue support line”, originally established around the “Trump rally breakout.” Current structure suggests a “possible bottom formation near this zone, supported by volume and historical price behavior.” With volume backing the move and historical price behavior aligning, BTCEarth believes the current structure may mark the early signs of a bullish turnaround for Bitcoin. Impending Price Recovery For Bitcoin? BTCEarth pointed out that the blue horizontal support line on his chart aligns closely with Bitcoin’s early breakout in September 2024. This level has since acted as a crucial support zone, having been retested multiple times throughout the past months. Notably, the most recent price touches at $74,434 and $74,588 appear to have formed another significant bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For W-Bottom Reversal, Says Legendary Trader Bollinger According to BTCEarth, the repeated validation of this support suggests that Bitcoin is building a strong foundation. If this structure holds, it could pave the way for a bullish reversal, especially as momentum and historical price behavior support a potential breakout from this area. BTCEarth also emphasized that Bitcoin is currently trading within a falling wedge pattern. In his chart, Line D serves as the support base while Line E marks the descending resistance. The price action has continued to compress within this narrowing structure, signaling a breakout on the horizon. He noted that a confirmed move above Line E, especially one sustained over multiple daily candle closes, would validate the pattern and confirm a bullish reversal. Such a breakout could set the stage for a stronger upward trend as traders recognize the shift in market structure. Key Resistance And Buying Zones BTCEarth highlighted that the accumulation zone between $74,000 and $75,000 remains intact, offering a favorable risk-reward setup for long positions. The immediate resistance lies at $80,000. Further resistance is found between $86,000 and $88,000, an area of historical consolidation and heavy volume. A breakout above this zone would significantly strengthen Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bullish Fate Hinges On These 2 Resistance Zones – Details Beyond that, he pointed out that the major horizontal resistance near $100,000 remains the ultimate target. This level represents a psychological milestone and a crucial technical threshold. If Bitcoin builds enough momentum to clear it, it could pave the way for a fresh leg up in the long-term bullish cycle. In conclusion, BTCEarth highlighted that Bitcoin is stabilizing above a critical support zone, with the price structure suggesting a potential bottom formation. A breakout above Line E could spark a powerful bullish move toward the $88,000–$100,000 range. However, until this breakout occurs, caution remains crucial, and maintaining a hold strategy is advised. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Legendary technical analyst John Bollinger has highlighted what he calls a “classic Bollinger Band W bottom” that may be forming on the Bitcoin pair BTC/USD. According to him, BTC appears to have found support in the $74,000 area, setting up the characteristic double-dip lows that define a W-shaped reversal pattern. Notably, Bollinger stressed that the setup still needs to be confirmed: “Classic Bollinger Band W bottom setup in BTCUSD. Still needs confirmation”. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? The chart shows Bitcoin navigating a decline from its mid-January high near $110,000, with recent price action clustered around the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The upper band sits at $108,837, while the lower band sits at $77,138, suggesting a relatively wide range of volatility on a weekly basis. The Bollinger’s mid-line is close to $93,000. Related Reading: This Crypto Analyst Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash At $97,000, He Just Released Another Forecast Bollinger’s indication of a W-bottom is based on the formation of two distinct troughs in quick succession, as seen in both the price data and the oscillator readings below the chart. The first trough materialised as BTCUSD fell from its then high of around $90,000 to the mid-$76,000 area, then rallied before sliding back to a comparable support area around $74,500. The repeated dip into this horizontal support level has so far held, which Bollinger identifies as a potential base for a bullish reversal – although he cautions that a definitive move above the intervening swing high near $90,000 would help validate this classic chart pattern. Other market clues include slightly lower trading volumes, suggesting that the intense selling that drove bitcoin down from its recent peak may be easing. The chart’s momentum oscillator, which tracks overbought and oversold conditions, supports this thesis, forming a bottom near its lower border. Although this alignment with price action suggests a possible bottom, many technical analysts are looking for the oscillator to rise convincingly above its midpoint to confirm that momentum has indeed shifted in favour of buyers. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In After Trump’s Tariff Pause? Here’s What To Expect Bollinger bands themselves, invented by John Bollinger, measure volatility by placing envelope lines above and below a moving average. When these bands widen, the market typically experiences large price swings; when they narrow, volatility decreases. In Bitcoin’s case, they’ve remained relatively wide, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s dramatic range from below $20,000 to six figures over the past two years. While talk of a W-bottom has sparked optimism among bullish traders, Bollinger’s reminder that it “still needs to be confirmed” highlights the importance of solid follow-through in price action. If Bitcoin can break above $90,000 on robust volume, the long-awaited confirmation of this pattern would be within reach. Until then, the W-bottom is just a possibility. At press time, BTC traded at $81,366. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Donald Trump’s decision to enact a 90-day pause on his tariffs sent a new wave of buying pressure across the crypto markets, with Bitcoin pushing past the $80,000 price level again. Although the wave of buying pressure is now starting to cool down, the bullish sentiment has already been enacted among some market participants. The question is now on whether this is enough to push Bitcoin back into the $100,000 threshold during this pause period.  Tariff Pause Can Push Bitcoin Towards $100,000 The bullish consensus is that Bitcoin might have created a price bottom during its price crash after the tariffs were initially announced. Crypto analyst Kaduna shared a detailed outlook following another tariff announcement, noting that a “mini bull market” is now in motion. This mini bull market which he noted is in reaction to Bitcoin’s price surge from $75,200 to $83,200 in the hours after Donald Trump announced a pause on the US tariffs against imports into the US from countries except China. Related Reading: Donald Trump’s Tariffs, Bitcoin, And The Crypto Market: Everything You Should Know About Why The Market Crashed With this surge in mind, analyst Kaduna noted in a post on social media platform X that this rapid market reaction might result in a front-running behavior that could begin as early as a month before the 90-day window ends. According to his analysis, the bull run being teased with the global M2 liquidity could begin very early, at least a month earlier than thought. This front running, in turn, could push the price of Bitcoin higher during a 55-day exit window for bullish traders. Interestingly, the global M2 liquidity suggests that any next push from here will be a very strong one that will send the Bitcoin price back above $100,000 and even much more above this level. Analyst Reveals Exit Point Kaduna’s outlook is not only focused on the upside potential but also on timing a strategic exit should the market rally unfold as expected. In his social media post, he revealed that it would be prudent to exit most positions during the next 55-day window between April and June 3, which he believes will capture the peak of this bull phase. After exiting, he would step back from the market and reevaluate conditions later in the summer to scale back in. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Mirrors Global M2 As Crypto Analyst Reveals May Timeline For “Blast Off” Interestingly, the global M2 liquidity suggests that the Bitcoin price can rise from its current price level to reach as high as $120,000 within this time period before any major correction. Such a move will send Bitcoin trading at new price peaks, as it would necessitate a break above its current all-time high of $108,786. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,341.

Charles Hoskinson, who co-founded Ethereum and now leads the Cardano blockchain, has projected that Bitcoin could reach a price of $250,000 by the end of this year or next year. His prediction, made during a CNBC interview, comes despite the recent slump in the wider financial markets including crypto. Why Bitcoin Will Hit $250,000 Within Less Than 2 Years Hoskinson emphasized that rising geopolitical tensions and evolving trade dynamics are creating supportive conditions for decentralized networks like Bitcoin. Speaking on a world that appears to be “moving from a rules-based international order to a great powers conflict,” he suggested this shift would highlight the limitations of traditional banking and trade systems, steering more transactions toward cryptocurrencies. “If Russia wants to invade Ukraine, it invades Ukraine. If China wants to invade Taiwan, it’s going to do that. So treaties don’t really work so well, and global business doesn’t really work so well there. So your only option for globalization is crypto,” Hoskinson told CNBC. He also noted the significant sell-off in crypto and other risk assets, a trend that has partially stemmed from US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on countries worldwide. Bitcoin dipped below $77,000 over the last week before briefly surpassing $83,000 on Wednesday, and remains considerably lower than its record high above $100,000 set in January. Still, Hoskinson’s confidence stands: “No, I think Bitcoin will be over $250,000 by the end of this year or next year.” Among the factors that might drive such a dramatic price surge, Hoskinson pointed to the Federal Reserve possibly lowering interest rates in response to market pressures. “Then you’ll have a lot of fast, cheap money, and then it’ll pour into crypto,” he said, explaining how additional liquidity could lead to renewed interest in digital assets. The potential for big tech companies such as Microsoft and Apple to enter the crypto space also figures into his bullish outlook. Another component of Hoskinson’s optimism lies in the prospect of new legislation. He singled out anticipated stablecoin legislation as well as the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, both of which are currently making their way through Congress. He believes these regulatory moves could streamline the crypto market and pave the way for institutional adoption. Stablecoins, which are pegged to fiat currency and backed by real-world assets, may prove especially attractive to major technology companies looking to facilitate rapid, cost-effective global transactions. “The stablecoin bill in particular could lead the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies to begin adopting the assets,” he added, referring to Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and other mega-cap tech giants. Hoskinson further argued that once these regulatory frameworks become clearer, the market will likely “stall for probably the next three to five months,” before “a huge wave of speculative interest” re-enters the space around late summer or fall. That renewed enthusiasm, combined with a more settled geopolitical landscape and a stable regulatory environment, could, in his view, push Bitcoin’s price as high as $250,000. At press time, BTC traded at $81,138. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has long embodied the boldest institutional bet on the cryptocurrency. Co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor’s unwavering belief in Bitcoin has defined the company’s strategy for years. However, that strategy now faces a challenge after a recent SEC filing hinted at the possibility of MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate some of its Bitcoin holdings under financial pressure and the recent Bitcoin price crash. The implications could ripple beyond the company’s balance sheet and affect Bitcoin’s broader market. Mounting Debt, Negative Cash Flow, And The Bitcoin Lifeline MicroStrategy disclosed several important financial vulnerabilities in a recent Form 8-K filed with the SEC. At the time of filing, the firm reported holding 528,185 BTC, acquired at an average purchase price of $67,458 per Bitcoin, for a total cost basis of approximately $35.63 billion. However, despite the massive size of its Bitcoin treasury, MicroStrategy admitted that its core enterprise software business has not been generating positive operational cash flow. The company is also shouldering $8.22 billion in debt and facing an annual contractual interest burden of $35.1 million. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Bitcoin Price Could See Further Crash If It Falls Below This Level Although it has issued over $1.6 billion in preferred stock tied to substantial annual dividend obligations of $146.2 million, these liabilities are not being met. Instead, MicroStrategy explicitly outlined that it expects to rely on debt or equity financing to meet its obligations, and those efforts may become severely strained if Bitcoin’s price sharply declines. The report warns that if the market value of its holdings drops significantly, it could negatively affect the firm’s ability to raise funds. In such a situation, the company might be forced to sell Bitcoin at a loss. At the time the report was filed, BTC was trading just 13% above the company’s average purchase price. Because Bitcoin forms the majority of MicroStrategy’s assets, its balance sheet is intimately tied to the crypto’s price. As such, a dip below that level could create a chain reaction of falling stock prices and ultimately force selling pressure even on the price of Bitcoin itself.  Michael Saylor’s Response: Staying The Course Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s co-founder and former CEO, is one of the biggest proponents of Bitcoin and was influential in the company’s adoption of a Bitcoin strategy. Taking to social media platform X after the news of the report broke out, Saylor simply tweeted: “HODL,” a popular mantra among crypto purists that signals long-term conviction.  Related Reading: Here’s How Much Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Lost After The BTC Price Crash The post has had over 1.4 million views on the platform and resonated with many bullish proponents, as seen in the comments section. He followed that with another tweet: “Bitcoin is the Best Idea. There is no Second Best.” At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $81,900, up by 6% in the past 24 hours. Even if MicroStrategy were to sell any Bitcoin at this point, it wouldn’t be the first sale of its holdings. Back on December 22, 2022, MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC for $11.8 million under similar circumstances. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The Ethereum price crash to $1,400 has shaken the crypto market, amplifying already volatile conditions. This dramatic price drop comes after a major ETH sell-off by US President Donald Trump’s World Liberty Finance, suggesting that the recent dump may have been a primary catalyst behind ETH’s price collapse. Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed on April 9 via X (formerly Twitter) that the wallet associated with World Liberty Finance, a decentralized finance protocol linked to Trump, recently dumped a significant amount of Ethereum. Interestingly, this sell-off came just before Ethereum’s price crash, raising the question of whether it contributed to the unexpected decline. Donald Trump‘s World Liberty Finance Dumps ETH Launched in 2024, World Liberty Finance is Trump’s controversial digital asset firm designed to rival centralized banking and facilitate the adoption of stablecoins. According to data from Lookonchain, Trump’s World Liberty Finance, which was previously accumulating Ethereum at a low price, is now selling off a large chunk of its holding at a steep loss.  Related Reading: Major Ethereum Whale Dumps 10,000 ETH After 2 Years, Is It Time To Get Out? Lookonchain flagged the transaction, noting that the wallet linked to World Liberty Finance had offloaded 5,471 ETH tokens worth roughly $8.01 million. The sell-off was executed at a price of $1,465 per ETH, a significant drop from its previous value of over $1,600.  Notably, World Liberty Finance’s ETH sell-off move has raised eyebrows across the crypto community. It appears to mark a shift in strategy for a player who was previously known for large-scale ETH accumulation.  According to Lookonchain, the wallet address linked to World Liberty Finance had accumulated a total of 67,498 ETH at an average price of $3,259. This means that the decentralized finance protocol spent a total of $210 million to amass such a large amount of ETH.  At its sell-off price, this leaves the entity sitting on a staggering unrealized loss of around $125 million. The recent sell-off also adds more fuel to the growing uncertainty surrounding Ethereum’s future outlook, as the cryptocurrency’s recent price crash has sparked even more bearish predictions of continued decline.  Although the reason behind World Liberty Finance’s unexpected ETH sell-off remains unclear, some believe that the dump was likely triggered by Ethereum’s ongoing price decline, while others suggest it could signal a market bottom.  Ethereum Price Crash To $1,400 Ethereum’s price decline to $1,400 came as a shock to the market, making it the first time the cryptocurrency had fallen so low in seven years. Notably, Ethereum was not the only leading cryptocurrency that was affected by the market turmoil, as big players like Bitcoin also suffered losses. Related Reading: Ethereum Goes Head To Head With XRP: Analyst Says ETH Will Outperform For This Reason Currently, Ethereum seems to be recovering slightly from its previous low and is now trading at $1,591 after jumping 7.44%. Although this recovery brings hope of a rebound, the cryptocurrency’s value has still dropped by 16.63% over the past month. Moreover, technical indicators from CoinCodex highlight that sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency is still deeply bearish, suggesting that further declines could be on the horizon. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price crash from $97,000 in late February surprised most crypto market participants but not this analyst. The crypto analyst known as Doctor Profit, who previously warned of a correction when Bitcoin was approaching $97,000, recently released a new technical outlook that dissuades a bullish trajectory in the short term. In a breakdown shared on the social media platform X, Doctor Profit noted that the breakdown isn’t complete yet. This outlook comes from a former detailed analysis in which the analyst highlighted various Bitcoin price movements to watch out for, all of which have come to pass. Doctor Profit Says Bitcoin Market Dump Is Just Beginning Bitcoin has experienced ups and downs in the past few days with incredibly volatile movements. These ups and downs saw the Bitcoin price fall below $75,000 at the beginning of the week before spending the past four days on a recovery path towards $80,000. Amidst the price volatility, crypto analyst Doctor Profit clarified that he expects the current downward move in Bitcoin’s price to extend further. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000 In a recent post on social media platform X, the analyst described the correction as a “market massacre” that is expected to continue, stating that the party just started. He revealed that he had placed his first buy orders within the $58,000 to $68,000 range, suggesting that the Bitcoin price would keep falling until it reaches this region. Rather than seeing the recent decline as a setback, the price action is a calculated part of the broader strategy which the analyst laid out in an earlier detailed analysis.   Doctor Profit’s analysis is based on the M2 money supply, a macroeconomic metric he believes is widely misunderstood within the crypto space. Many traders have recently cited the uptick in M2 as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, assuming that more liquidity means an immediate surge in prices. However, the analyst stressed that timing is everything. He noted that Bitcoin tends to front-run traditional markets when responding to M2 increases, but even then, the reaction is not instantaneous. What To Expect With BTC He reminds his followers that in July 2024, he predicted a 50bps rate cut, which was considered highly unlikely at the time. Once that cut materialized in September, around the same time Bitcoin was hovering near $50,000, he labeled it extremely bullish and called for a major rally. As it turned out, the M2 money supply began expanding in February 2025, which aligned with his forecast. Yet, he cautions that while M2 is now climbing, its effect on Bitcoin will play out gradually. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Mirrors Global M2 As Crypto Analyst Reveals May Timeline For “Blast Off” Looking at Bitcoin’s price behavior on the charts, Doctor Profit shifted his focus to the $70,000 to $74,000 range. He believes this range could either serve as a springboard for a fresh upward rally if a strong daily close occurs above the “Golden Line” around the weekly EMA50 or as a signal for a deeper downside if the price breaks beneath it.  Should a more dramatic breakdown occur, the analyst advised scaling back and waiting for even lower entries around the $50,000 to $60,000 zone. Doctor Profit predicted that the bull run will not resume until sometime around May or June, with upside targets of $120,000 to $140,000. Bitcoin has managed to push above $81,000 after Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his ground-breaking tarriffs. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,000, up by 7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged more than 8% to reach a high of $83,588 following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs for over 75 countries, excluding China. Investors and market analysts viewed the move as a signal of relief, reflecting hopes that the rapid escalation of tariffs would abate, at least temporarily. Yet President Trump simultaneously hiked the tariff rate on China to 125%, indicating that the trade battle between the world’s two largest economies remains far from settled. Trump’s decision to pause most of his newly announced tariffs was tied to concern over disruptive shifts in the bond market. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which had soared to a seven-week high, remained elevated after the tariff pause was revealed. Despite the temporary relief for many countries, the immediate tariff hike on China highlighted the ongoing stalemate, suggesting persistent uncertainty for global markets. Some analysts see the surge of risk assets, including Bitcoin, as partly driven by changing expectations around future negotiations. Potential China Deal Not Priced In For Bitcoin Amid this backdrop, Joe McCann, founder, CEO, CIO, and solo managing GP of the crypto fund Asymmetric, voiced his perspective on X, observing that the market was originally pricing in tariffs for China, EU and the entire world, but is now only pricing China. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns He indicated that a deal with Beijing remains unpriced, so if a breakthrough emerges, the market “explodes” higher. “Market was priced for China, EU and everyone else getting tariffed. Market now pricing only China. Market not pricing a China deal,” McCann remarks. He also notes that “the explosion on the long end is risk parity pods blowing up,” referencing abrupt market movements in long-duration bonds. McCann sees the current environment as reminiscent of the market bottom during the COVID period, with funds starting to re-gross positions and short-sellers covering. He highlights the possibility that if the yuan strengthens against the dollar, it would likely mean China is prepared to negotiate, implying that equity and crypto markets may be trading too low. “But today, long only funds re-grossed and shorts covered.Trump has signaled max pain for China and is willing to negotiate. Market can only re-price higher. If the Yuan rallies against the Dollar tonight, that is likely a sign China wants to negotiate, which means the market is mispriced (too low). UST 30Y auction tomorrow should see further indirect bids – same story as today,” McCann writes. “Not Out Of The Woods Yet” Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, cautioned that the environment remains fragile, noting on X that weakened yuan dynamics, a still-robust 10-year yield above 4%, and ongoing credit concerns at spreads beyond 400 basis points persist as potential headwinds. According to him, “[this] will be an unpopular opinion […] we are out the woods yet […] the net outcome is still negative for risk assets,” especially if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as previously anticipated. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst: 33% Chance Bitcoin Already Topped—Brace For $52,000 He cited this lack of monetary support as a factor that amplifies volatility. “If anything its actually more concerning how little liquidity is in the market to experience casino swings like this,” he writes via X. X user Adam Yoder agrees that “bonds still went up today, gold went up,” suggesting there are still enough safe-haven flows to keep traditional investors wary of riskier assets. Park concurred, suggesting “this is actually kind of a horrible move” and expressing confusion over what the White House hopes to achieve with a partial pause that leaves China alone to bear the brunt. Meanwhile, in a swift reversal of its earlier call, Goldman Sachs withdrew a recently announced recession baseline after the 90-day pause was confirmed. Its revised outlook, published by Jan Hatzius, maintains that total tariffs—both the existing 10% and anticipated sector-specific rates of 25%—will still be implemented, but that the market has been spared an immediate global escalation. Goldman now returns to its previous non-recession baseline forecast of 0.5% Q4/Q4 GDP growth in 2025, a 45% recession probability, and three successive 25-basis-point “insurance” cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, July, and September. According to the statement, “we continue to expect additional sector-specific tariffs” and an overall rate that could approach the 15 percentage-point increase Goldman had initially anticipated. All Eyes On Today’s CPI Release Notably, today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2025 is scheduled to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 8:30 ET – a big report for the market which could be crucial for BTC’s next move. The CPI for February 2025 showed a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 2.8% (not seasonally adjusted), with a month-over-month (MoM) rise of 0.2% (seasonally adjusted). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 3.1% YoY. This marked a slight cooling from January’s 3.0% YoY headline rate, suggesting a gradual disinflation trend. Expectations for the March CPI are to potentially drop to around 2.5% YoY, with some analysts suggesting it could even fall to 2.6% or lower if trends in housing costs, rents, and energy prices continue to ease. Core CPI is anticipated to hover around 3.0% to 3.1% YoY, reflecting persistent pressure from services and shelter costs. At press time, BTC traded at $81,438. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Since Bitcoin failed to hold above the $100,000 psychological barrier earlier this year, its bullish momentum has gradually unraveled. The pullback has deepened over the past two months, with Bitcoin trading between $75,000 and $79,000 in April. The bullish prospect is becoming very weak, and the crypto sector is searching for technical clarity amidst a buildup of pressure across traditional markets, especially with equities. Given the situation, crypto analyst Tony Severino noted that the current setup offers one major move that could invalidate an extended bearish momentum. Tony “The Bull” Identifies Important LMACD Inflection Point To Reject Bearish Hypothesis According to Tony “The Bull” Severino, the most important chart development is the incoming bearish crossover on Bitcoin’s 1-month LMACD indicator. The LMACD, which tracks market momentum on a logarithmic scale, currently shows the blue line drifting toward a crossover beneath the orange signal line. Related Reading: Crypto CEO Reveals Why The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over With Crash Below $80,000 This kind of intending crossover is known to be an important bearish confirmation, and its appearance has coincided with growing weakness across broader markets, including traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Although the crossover has not yet been confirmed by a monthly close, its presence at the open of April is enough to stir concern. Severino explained that unless a significant rally occurs before the end of the month, the blue line will cross below the orange line, and momentum will officially turn bearish.  If the month closes with the crossover intact, it will mark the first confirmed bearish momentum shift on the LMACD since the bullish reversal in July 2023. Bitcoin Bulls Still Have A Window To Flip The Outlook Before April Ends According to Tony Severino, this crossover is not the sole reason for leaning bearish on Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory, but it stands out as the most precise technical marker that could trigger a rethink. The crossover isn’t isolated to the Bitcoin price chart. Severino highlighted that the same bearish crossover was already confirmed last month in major indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, the crossover has already shown up in the BTCUSD versus GOLD chart, further supporting the idea that Bitcoin is no longer moving in isolation but reacting to widespread macro pressures. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price 1-Month Stochastic: Expert Warns Investors To Stop Comparing BTC To 2017 Moves Despite the bearish tilt, the situation is not yet final. The current crossover is provisional, meaning there’s still time for bulls to reverse the signal. A powerful upward move this month could cause the blue LMACD line to diverge higher, reestablish upward momentum and invalidate the bearish setup before it solidifies. The analyst also noted this possibility of a rebound considering the current oversold levels. This is because oversold technical conditions generally creates the kind of environment where a dramatic reversal is possible.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,260, down by 2.23% and 8.93% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The bond market, often regarded as the bedrock of global financial stability, is showing signs of severe strain, with market participants on X sounding the alarm over what many are calling a “broken” system. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, a prominent voice in financial analysis, published a stark warning on X: “Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind.” Bianco highlighted the severity of the situation, noting that the 30-year US Treasury yield spiked 56 basis points in just three trading days since Friday, a move he described as historic: “Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind. […] The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%. This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET. This sentiment was echoed across the platform, with Cathie Wood of ARK Invest stating, “this swap spread is suggesting serious liquidity issues in the US banking system. This crisis is calling out for some kind of Mar-a-Lago Accord on free trade, in tandem with serious support from the Fed? No more time to waste.” Similarly, Daniel Yan, the founder and CIO of Kryptanium Capital, a managing partner at Matrixport Ventures warned, “First, we have a tariff driven equity meltdown. Then the bond basis started to unwind and looks ugly now. The last straw is the credit market – if we starts to see the HY index above 6%, then probably an emergency Fed intervention is at the corner, or, a real crisis.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Crashes 17% as Whales Scoop Up Supply—Reversal Ahead? Financial journalist Charlie Gasparino added to the chorus, noting, “Now stuff is getting interesting and scarily so; wicked spike in long dated bond yields portends an unwind of a massive trade, possibly a hedge fund losing money and imploding or a major foreigner creditor dumping treasuries in retaliation to Trumps trade war, none of which are good. I’m sure Scott Bessent’s phone is ringing off the hook right about now. Buckle up for the open” Financial commentator Peter Schiff added, “As I warned earlier, the Treasury market is crashing. The yield on the 10-year just hit 4.5%, and the yield on the 30-year just hit 5%. Without an emergency rate cut tomorrow morning and the announcement of a massive QE program, tomorrow could be a 1987-style stock market crash.” Macro analyst Alex Krueger agrees: “The long bond is crashing. US long interest rates are now considerably above Trump’s inauguration day. That’s how Trump & Bessent shooting themselves in the foot looks like. With a shotgun.” What’s Happening? At the heart of this turmoil supposedly lies the basis trade, a leveraged strategy employed by hedge funds to exploit price discrepancies between Treasury futures and the underlying bonds. Bianco posits that this trade, which ballooned in popularity during years of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing, may now be in a full unwind. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns The rapid deleveraging has caused bond prices to plummet as yields spike, eroding the safe-haven status of US Treasuries. As yields soar to 5.00% the implications for the broader financial ecosystem, including the Bitcoin and crypto markets, are profound. This development is particularly alarming at a time when financial markets are already reeling from President Donald Trump’s newly announced global tariff regime. Trump’s tariffs have exacerbated fears of inflation and a recession. Notably, the bond market’s dysfunction is not occurring in isolation. Crude oil prices have collapsed by 21% since what Bianco refers to as “Liberation Day,” falling to $57 per barrel, the lowest level since April 2021. This simultaneous crash in bond prices and crude oil is unprecedented, signaling broader systemic stress. Implications For Bitcoin And Crypto For the Bitcoin and crypto markets, this upheaval presents both risks and opportunities. Bitcoin and other digital assets have often been touted as hedges against traditional financial instability, yet their performance in recent months has shown a growing correlation with risk assets like equities. As S&P futures tumbled by -12% over the past 4 trading sessions amid the bond market rout, BTC is down -8% as it faces a spillover effect. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which has risen since Thursday’s low, indicates net foreign buying into US markets, countering speculation that China is offloading Treasuries to “punish” the US over tariffs. Bianco argues that if China were indeed selling Treasuries en masse, the dollar would likely be declining, not appreciating. This suggests that the primary driver of the bond market sell-off is domestic, likely tied to the forced liquidation of leveraged positions rather than foreign intervention. Amid this turmoil, calls for Federal Reserve intervention have grown louder. Some market participants on X have speculated about the possibility of an emergency rate cut to stem the bleeding, something which could be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. “Is it foreigners dumping? The basis trade blowing up? Inflation fears? No one knows for sure. But look past the “why,” and it all leads to the same fork in the road: Fed intervention—or net interest expense blasts through $1 trillion,” Bitcoin expert Sam Callahan writes via X. As reported earlier today by Bitcoinist, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin could benefit significantly from the Trump administration’s push toward a weaker dollar. Bitcoin commentator Stack Hodler added via X: “This isn’t 2008. It’s worse. The Global Sovereign Debt bubble is bursting right in front of us. Two options: Total collapse… OR the Fed buys everything, institutional credibility hits new lows, neutral reserve assets gold & Bitcoin take the treasury safe haven bid and full send.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,952. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. “I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle,” Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. “I’m not calling for this to be the top in the cycle,” he clarified, “but I’m saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance.” Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. “In the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often.” Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. “We are now… 29 months into the cycle,” he said, “so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.” Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. “There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.” In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic. “With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.” The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. “If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.” Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. “I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down to $48K or lower.’” Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. “I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital… and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes.” At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In a thread on X, business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains where the global economy currently stands and what that means for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Describing what he terms a “short and shallow” full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025, Tomas believes this fleeting cycle was masked in part by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar. He explains, “The general gist of the theory was that we saw an abnormal, ‘short and shallow’ full business cycle over recent years that suppressed traditional PMI measures both in the US and globally.” According to Tomas, his analysis relies on four real-time measures of the global economy, which he tracked in inverted trade-weighted dollar index, Baltic Dry Index, 10-year Chinese Government bond yields, and the copper/gold ratio. By converting these individual data points into rolling yearly z-scores, he created an “equal-weighted composite z-score” he calls the Global Economy Index (GEI). He notes, “You can see clearly here that the GEI was underwhelming to the upside in 2023 and 2024 (didn’t reach the ‘business cycle peaking zone’). And then fell to levels typically correlated with the end of a business cycle in late 2024/early 2025 (‘business cycle troughing zone’).” This composite measure appeared to lead US Manufacturing PMI data prior to the disruptive events of 2020, and Tomas highlights that relationship by shifting the GEI forward by six months. He observes a break in the pattern around the 2020 pandemic and the following large-scale central bank interventions, yet still sees the possibility that GEI’s recent rebound indicates a new “fresh” business cycle taking hold, potentially peaking around late 2026 or 2027. “Based on historical precedent,” he writes, “this new business cycle could reasonably be expected to peak around late 2026/2027.” He also addresses the interplay between GEI, equities, and PMIs, remarking that the stock market usually leads business survey measures but tends to lag the GEI. “If we peel back the layers of the onion, we find the stock market generally leads PMI measures but generally lags the GEI, so it lives somewhere in the middle, most of the time,” he says. He points out that the S&P 500 recently slipped into negative year-over-year territory, which he sees as typical of end-of-cycle price behavior. “The S&P 500 has now hit what would historically be an acceptable ‘end of business cycle bottoming level.’” The Implications For Bitcoin Bitcoin, however, remains the wildcard. Tomas acknowledges that the leading-lag relationship of the GEI, stock market, and PMIs might normally apply to most risk assets, yet this time around, Bitcoin appears to be deviating from its usual volatility in relation to the macro environment. “The piece of the jigsaw that doesn’t seem to fit at all (by historical precedent) is Bitcoin,” he writes. He acknowledges that it has so far resisted typical “end of business cycle” drawdowns, and he speculates on whether “Bitcoin has just grown up and become less volatile and less sensitive to business cycle swings — potentially due to ETFs and higher institutional interest.” Yet he also entertains the possibility that Bitcoin might simply be lagging the stock market. Regardless, “if Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle,” Tomas warns, “this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action.” Tomas concludes by cautioning that if the global economy index fails to maintain its recent bounce and instead rolls over to a new low, the outlook could turn more bearish, especially if so-called tariff headwinds worsen. He speculates that part of the rebound seen in copper/gold and shipping rates in early 2025 may have been frontloaded by tariff announcements, hinting that the recovery in those metrics might not be as robust as it appears on the surface. Still, the key takeaway from his perspective is that equities and the broader business cycle appear to be in late-stage territory, and if his assessment holds, a new cycle could begin soon — one that runs long enough to postpone any meaningful Bitcoin peak until late 2026 or even 2027, calling into question any assumptions about the enduring validity of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. “Another point to note is that the GEI is currently signaling the start of a new business cycle, which could reasonably be expected to peak in late 2026/2027. If Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle, this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action,” Tomas concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $79,428. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $74,000 has left traders speculating whether the cryptocurrency has finally hit a bottom. However, a CMT-certified analyst suggests that Bitcoin’s price correction is far from over. He has predicted an even deeper pullback to $38,000 – $42,000, which he identifies as Bitcoin’s final price bottom.   In a detailed Elliott Wave-based chart analysis, CMT-certified technical analyst Tony Severino outlines a classic 5-wave impulsive structure that appears to have completed its final leg near $85,000. Severino’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s latest decline to $74,000 is merely the start of a broader ABC corrective pattern, potentially driving the cryptocurrency down to a bottom in the range of $38,000 – $42,000. New Bitcoin Price Bottom Incoming In Bitcoin’s 5-wave impulse structure, Wave 1 began with a sharp bear market low, followed by Wave 2, a corrective pullback. Wave 3 marked the strongest upward move, subdivided into five smaller waves (i to v). After the market paused briefly for a pullback in Wave 4, Wave 5 kicked off with a final push toward a peak near $85,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin RSI Targets Daily Retest That Triggered 2024 Price Rally, What Happened Last Time Following the top of Wave 5, Bitcoin’s ABC corrective structure began, marked by the red line on the chart. According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency is currently completing Wave A of this corrective pattern, which is expected to bottom out near $62,000 – $65,000 by June 2025. This price range coincides with the previous main correction zone around Wave 4, which is a common target for Wave A retracements.  Notably, a bigger concern comes after Bitcoin’s possible crash to $65,000 – $62,000. The analyst anticipates a short-lived bounce in Wave B, followed by a more pronounced decline in Wave C. This downturn is expected to push the Bitcoin price to its final bottom target between $38,000 and $42,000 by April 2026. This pullback target further aligns with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3, which often serves as a key retracement zone during market corrections.   Severino has confirmed through his technical analysis that the market is now in a bear phase. His price chart incorporates cyclical timing models, marking a complete market cycle characterized by a bull market peak in 2025, followed by a bear market extending into mid-2026. This timeline is consistent with Bitcoin’s typical four-year halving cycle, where the market reaches its peak the year after the halving event before entering a bear market phase.  Analyst Flags Death Cross In BTC’s Chart According to reports from BarChart on X, Bitcoin has just formed a Death Cross on its price chart for the first time since September 2024. A Death Cross occurs when the 50 Moving Average (MA) crosses below the 200 MA.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Marks 114 Weeks In Active Buy Signal On The SuperTrend Weekly, But Things Could Turn Bad If This Happens This distinct chart pattern is often considered a bearish sign, indicating that a potential downtrend might be on the horizon. Considering Bitcoin’s price has declined to $78,900 at press time, the appearance of a Death Cross indicates a possibility of further breakdown and consolidation. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price movement is starting to look positive after a brief stretch of crashes on Sunday and Monday. After breaking down to $74,000 on Monday, bearish momentum looked ready to drag Bitcoin’s price down further. However, bulls quickly stepped in to defend the dip. Their aggressive buying has pushed the price back up, with Bitcoin now moving towards the $80,000 level again.  This recent crash is interesting because it aligns almost perfectly with a high-telling metric. This metric not only foreshadowed the crash, but it is now pointing to a powerful upward move for the next Bitcoin rally. Analyst Says Global M2 Is A Leading Signal For Bitcoin’s Next Move Colin, a well-followed crypto analyst on X, recently drew attention to Bitcoin’s relationship with the global M2 money supply. Taking to social media platform X, the analyst shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s price correlation with the Global M2 Money Supply, although with a 108-day offset. It almost looks like the Global M2 Money Supply is working as a template for Bitcoin’s price action, as the leading cryptocurrency has been tracing this offest almost step by step since August 2024. Related Reading: Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 Money Supply Shows A Big Move Coming, Here’s The Target In his latest post, Colin explained that Bitcoin continues to “follow Global M2 like glue.” The chart he shared overlays Bitcoin’s candlestick movements with a yellow line representing the M2 supply offset by that duration. The result is a striking correlation that Colin has consistently tracked for over a year.  The chart below highlights what Colin labeled a mini-rally that failed and another crash, which has played out just as M2 had predicted. Now, with Bitcoin starting April with this crash, the M2 indicator suggests that it could very well blast off anytime soon. However, Colin noted that the price could consolidate further or experience minor dips before the anticipated rally. The analyst noted that the leading cryptocurrency is not fully out of the woods. But if lucky, it will be mostly sideways from here until the blastoff shown by the M2, which is not until May. May Blast-Off? BTC’s Rally Setup Strengthens Despite Short-Term Crash Colin’s forecast is based on the idea that Bitcoin could begin a major upward move by early May, which he called a May “blast-off.” The yellow M2 projection curve on his chart shows a steep climb ahead starting from May 1, indicating the possibility of Bitcoin rallying toward $128,000 if the correlation remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Struggles: Crypto Analyst Bucks Back Against Bearish Sentiment, Top Is Not In However, the analyst did not forgo the short-term risks that Bitcoin and the entire crypto market might face in April. These short-term risks are based on policy concerns regarding the “Trump tariffs,” which have set the investing markets ablaze in the past few days.  The coming weeks will be important for the outcome of this blastoff. Should it hold above the $78,000–$80,000 level while maintaining alignment with the Global M2 Money Supply, May could usher in the parabolic move Colin is hinting at. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,255, up by 5.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Speculation over a purported White House plan to pause tariffs for ninety days on all countries except China sent markets into a frenzy earlier today, triggering abrupt price reversals across equities, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In a quick-fire series of conflicting updates, the rumor initially floated at around 10:10 AM ET, sparked momentum in risk assets, and was eventually deemed “fake news” by the White House. The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) described the chronology on X, noting: “What just happened? At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a ‘90-day tariff pause.’ At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China. By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low.” Related Reading: Understanding Bitcoin Struggles: Why Realized Cap Indicates A Bear Market However, only seven minutes later, at 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was ‘unaware’ of Trump considering a 90-day pause. “At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect. At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines ‘fake news.’ By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior. Never in history have we seen something like this,” The Kobeissi Letter writes. The mere suggestion of a temporary reprieve from tariffs managed to shift sentiment rapidly in both equity and crypto markets. BTC, which was trading around $75,805 at the time, soared by roughly 7.2% to surpass $81,200 within half an hour. Once confirmation arrived that no such pause was planned, the gains evaporated almost as fast as they had arrived, pulling Bitcoin back to roughly $77,560. The abrupt turn of events unleashed a wave of commentary among crypto observers. Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) remarked that “The fake news tweet showed there’s a lot of sidelined capital at least for relief rally and the risk is to the upside on any positive news at least temporarily.” Will Clemente III cautioned: “Bear take: Liquidity is bad and this volatility might break something. Bull take: This headline was the cointelegraph intern BTC ETF headline but for equities.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bullish Fate Hinges On These 2 Resistance Zones – Details Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, remarked that “Bitcoin’s current price drawdown is about to become the largest of the current cycle,” illustrating his point with a chart that showed BTC’s correction reaching -26.62%, matching the scale of August 2024’s correction. Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) invoked BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s observation that another 20% market drop is not out of the question, saying: “That’s the thing. Under normal circumstances, probability of such scenarios or things such as stagflation are so low you can just brush them off. Trump opened up the left tail => anything is possible. We are one headline away from a 7% candle in either direction.” Podcast host Felix Jauvin (@fejau_inc) agrees: “What’s so crazy about this crash vs other is its entirely self-willed and could be reversed in an instant on one tweet. Has there ever been anything like that?” In the midst of the turmoil, European Union Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed a willingness to seek solutions, stating, “Europe is ready to negotiate with the US,” including the possibility of zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial goods. At press time, BTC traded at $78,824. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Melika Trader has warned of a volume drop that could trigger a 60% Bitcoin price crash. The analyst provided an in-depth analysis of what this price crash could mean and if it would mark the end of the bull run.  How The Bitcoin Price Could Crash By 60% And Drop To $49,000 In a TradingView post, Melika Trader revealed how the Bitcoin price could crash by 60% and drop to $49,000. The analyst noted that BTC is hanging just above a critical support zone, an area he claimed many traders recognize as the “most important support level” from a volume perspective on Binance.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Has Entered The ‘Ideal Buy Zone’, Here’s Why His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could suffer a 60% drop once it loses the former trend line at $75,000. The flagship crypto is also in danger, having lost the critical support at around $83,000. This drop to $49,000 would bring BTC back toward the high-volume range near $30,000.  This provides an ultra-bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, Melika Trader raised a twist, stating that only 20% of traders might actually lose. He noted that, according to Binance’s volume profile data, the majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.  The analyst further mentioned that most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022/2023 accumulation range. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) is also said to show significant support below the current Bitcoin price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels. Melika Trader remarked that only a minority of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70,000.  Meanwhile, the majority of investors are still in profit or break-even, even if the Bitcoin price retraces back to its base. As such, most traders are safe, as BTC risks a drop to as low as $49,000.  Why BTC’s Bull Market Is Over CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently asserted that BTC’s bull market is over amid the Bitcoin price decline. He alluded to the ‘Realized Cap’ metric to explain his confidence that the bull run is over. The CryptoQuant CEO noted that if Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in but prices aren’t rising.  Related Reading: Why Buying Bitcoin Now Is Better Than Later As BTC Price Consolidates Within Falling Wedge Ki Young Ju noted that this is a clear bearish signal, and this is what is currently happening. Capital is entering the market right now, but the Bitcoin price isn’t responding, which he claims is typical of a bear market. The CryptoQuant CEO explained that even large purchases like MicroStrategy’s aren’t pushing prices up because there is too much sell pressure at the moment.  Ki Young Ju again affirmed that current data points to the Bitcoin price being in a bear market. He noted that sell pressure could ease anytime but warned that historically, real reversals take at least six months. As such, the CryptoQuant CEO believes a short-term rally seems unlikely.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC), the market’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to trend lower, recent insights from industry experts highlight critical factors influencing BTC’s trajectory. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, the current Bitcoin bull cycle may be coming to an end. This assertion is grounded in the concept of Realized Cap, a metric that quantifies the actual capital entering the BTC market through on-chain activity. Insights From Ki Young Ju For context, the Realized Cap metric operates on a straightforward premise: when Bitcoin enters a wallet, it represents a purchase, and when it leaves, it signifies a sale.  By calculating the average cost basis for each wallet and multiplying it by the amount of BTC held, Ju derives the total Realized Cap. This metric reflects the total capital that has genuinely entered the BTC ecosystem, contrasting sharply with market capitalization, which is determined by the last traded price on exchanges. Related Reading: Solana Faces Defining Level At $120 – Will History Repeat? A common misconception, according to Ju, is that a small purchase, such as $10 worth of Bitcoin, only increases market capitalization by that same amount. In reality, prices are influenced by the balance of buy and sell orders on the order book.  Low sell pressure means that even modest buys can significantly elevate prices and, consequently, market cap. This phenomenon was notably exploited by MicroStrategy (MSTR), which issued convertible bonds to acquire Bitcoin, thereby inflating the paper value of its holdings far beyond the initial capital deployed. Key Price Levels For Bitcoin Currently, Bitcoin appears to be in a challenging position, dropping below the key $80,000 mark. When sell pressure is high, even substantial purchases fail to affect prices, as seen when Bitcoin traded near its all-time high of nearly $100,000. Despite massive trading volumes, the price remained stagnant. Ju points out that if Realized Cap is increasing but market cap is either flat or declining, it signals a bearish trend. This indicates that while capital is entering the market, it is not translating into price appreciation—a hallmark of a bear market.  Conversely, if market capitalization is rising while Realized Cap remains stable, it suggests that even minimal new investment is driving prices up, indicative of a bull market. Presently, data suggests that Bitcoin is experiencing the former scenario: capital is flowing in, but prices are not responding positively. Historically, significant market reversals require at least six months to manifest, making a short-term rally seem unlikely. Related Reading: Ethereum Tanks Nearly 50% As Bitcoin Holds Stronger In Q1 Adding to the complexity, market expert Ali Martinez has identified key resistance levels that Bitcoin must overcome to regain upward momentum.  Notably, there is a major resistance cluster at $87,000, where the 50-day moving average, 200-day moving average, and a descending trendline from the all-time high converge. For Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory, the expert asserts that BTC must break through critical resistance points at $85,470 and $92,950. Additionally, support at $80,450 remains vital; failure to hold this level could lead to further declines. As of now, the leading cryptocurrency trades at $78,379, recording a 6% decline on Sunday.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, recession probabilities have spiked across leading economic trackers, putting Bitcoin on high alert. Kalshi’s prediction markets now stand at 53%, an 8.1% jump from prior estimates, and Polymarket’s odds have surged to 54%. Tariff Shock And Rising Recession Odds After President Trump’s latest move to impose higher duties—“Liberation Day” tariffs targeting key US trading partners, including a 34% levy on imports from China and 20% on those from the European Union—multiple forecasters revised their recession probabilities upward. The odds have been updated across several respected institutions and platforms: Besides Kalshi and Polymarket, Larry Summers has indicated a 50% likelihood, whereas JPMorgan puts the chance at 40%. According to a CNBC Fed Survey, the odds are 36%, with both Moody’s Analytics and Pimco forecasting a 35% chance. Notably, Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its stance, now estimating the probability at 35%, up from a previous 20%. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Buying Hits Record Levels, Yet Prices Are Down—Here’s Why JPMorgan warns that these tariffs could result in “a $660 billion annual tax increase on Americans,” potentially adding 2% to domestic inflation. The risk of a knock-on effect is underscored by shifting consumer confidence data and the looming prospect of retaliatory trade measures from partners such as Canada and the EU. Goldman Sachs, in its March 30 research note, offered a sobering outlook for 2025. According to the team: “We now see a 12-month recession probability of 35%. The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.” What This Means For Bitcoin Renowned crypto trader Bob Loukas captured market sentiment on X, writing: “I’m starting to think we’re heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one, but it’s looking likely. […] We should take it seriously. That said, I think it’s time to move away from the ‘buy the dip’ habit we’ve leaned on during the bull market. […] It might not end up being a disaster, but focusing too much on potential gains could mean overlooking real risks. […] Bonds seem like a good bet, capital has to flow somewhere.” With respect to Bitcoin, Loukas underlines the difficult situation for investor with respect to Trump’s pro-BTC policy: Bitcoin’s tricky, instinct says it struggles, but I can see it holding up as a kind of digital gold, especially since the administration seems to want it to succeed, outside of trade policy stuff. Maybe there is some bias in that last statement.” Aksel Kibar (@TechCharts), a Chartered Market Technician and ex-fund manager, briefly affirmed Loukas’s stance by commenting, “Agreed.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Watch This Key Price Meanwhile, LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) spotlighted new guidance from UBS global wealth management, which now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75–100 bps through the remainder of 2025. The analyst writes via X: “This is kind of the key for Bitcoin. If the Fed treats tariff induced inflation as ‘transitory’ [… ] and focuses on supporting growth, then real rates are coming way lower […] and Bitcoin will fly. Financial conditions are currently easing with lower dollar and yields (although keep an eye on credit spreads). […] Bitcoin front runs liquidity […] Ultimately, this all ends with the Fed being forced to be the liquidity providers of last resort […] Bitcoin will end this year significantly higher. Just the path is going to be a very volatile and choppy one.” Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) cautioned about the interplay between monetary easing and recession risk: “Fed cuts without recession are usually bullish. Fed cuts with recession are usually bearish. This was a major talking point in 2024.” Powell’s Speech: A Pivotal Moment In light of President Trump’s unexpected tariffs, Friday’s scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have taken on renewed urgency. Powell had previously indicated that monetary policy remains restrictive, given inflation’s persistence above the Fed’s 2% target. Yet tariffs introduce a potential double bind: higher costs for consumers that could drive inflation further, alongside a drag on economic growth that complicates the labor market outlook. Andy Brenner of NatAlliance Securities described the speech as possibly “One of the most important Powell speeches in three years.” The Fed Chair is due to speak at 11:25 am ET. At press time, BTC traded at $83,197. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Pejman has warned that the Bitcoin price could witness a further crash in the short term. He revealed the level the flagship crypto needs to hold to avoid these “heavy declines.” Bitcoin Price Could Witness Further Crash If It Falls Below This Level In a TradingView post, Pejman stated that the Bitcoin price could record heavy declines if it falls below $83,500. This warning came following a bullish analysis in which he remarked that BTC seems to be completing the bullish flag pattern. The analyst added that he expects the flagship crypto to rally to the upside as it looks to fill the CME gap at the $86,000 range.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Struggles: Crypto Analyst Bucks Back Against Bearish Sentiment, Top Is Not In This eventually happened as the Bitcoin price rallied to as high as $88,000 amid the massive volatility that occurred following Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. However, Pejman suggested that the rally to $88,000 is likely the local top for BTC, stating that there is a possibility that Bitcoin will fall again following this price surge.  Moreover, the Bitcoin price has since corrected following the rally to $88,000. This price crash occurred as Trump unveiled the customized tariff rates for countries such as China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan. This move from the US president is expected to trigger a trade war, with these countries retaliating with counter-tariffs, which is bearish for BTC and the broader crypto market.  BTC Could Still Drop To As Low As $78,000 Based on crypto analyst Kevin Capital’s analysis, the Bitcoin price could soon drop to as low as $78,000. The analyst noted that there is a little bit of long liquidity at the $78,000 to $80,000 level, but there is also a lot of liquidity in the $87,000 to $90,000 range.  Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Makes Case For Bitcoin Price At $260,000, But This Invalidation Level Threatens The Rally He further remarked that market makers could look to transact in that $87,000 to $90,000 range just before Trump’s tariff announcement, which happened as predicted. With the Bitcoin price sucking up the liquidty at the $87,000 to $90,000 range, it looks likely to drop to the $78,000 to $80,000 range to also suck up the liquidity at that range.  Despite the Bitcoin price’s downtrend over the past two months, crypto analyst Rekt Capital is still bullish on the flagship crypto’s trajectory. He noted that BTC experienced a 32% downtrend from mid-March 2024 to early September 2024, a pullback that lasted almost six months before its price broke to new all-time highs (ATHs). As such, the analyst suggested this downtrend is nothing to worry about as BTC could still rally to new highs in a flash.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,000, down over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price plunged by 7.2%—from $88,526 to $82,150—within the span of four hours following the reciprocal tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The precipitous drop aligns with a broader market rout set off by what has been described as one of the largest tariff packages in modern US history. Bitcoin Crashes After Trump’s Tariff Bombshell On Wednesday afternoon, markets were jolted by a sweeping set of “reciprocal tariffs” that President Trump claimed would be levied on 185 countries “all at once.” The news sent ripples across global finance, with the S&P 500 futures market reportedly shedding $2 trillion of market capitalization in under 15 minutes. According to The Kobeissi Letter (via X): “Reciprocal tariffs are officially HERE: President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history. S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes. ” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Fate Hinges on This Critical ‘Dead Cross’ Signal — What’s Next for BTC? The initial press coverage noted a 10% baseline tariff. However, as Trump spoke, the scheme’s complexity and scope became more apparent. He clarified that tariffs would be “reciprocal” but set to half of whatever rate another country currently imposes on US goods—a figure well beyond the 10% baseline in many cases. China, for instance, reportedly applies 67% tariffs on certain imports from the United States, suggesting a 34% tariff reciprocally aimed at Chinese imports. Meanwhile, the European Union could face a 20% tariff. “This is VASTLY different than a 10% tariff across the board,” The Kobeissi Letter pointed out, adding that these significantly higher rates created massive volatility. At one point in Trump’s announcement, the S&P 500 futures reversed from being up 2% to dropping 4%—an abrupt 6-percentage-point swing in under 20 minutes. By the time the “Make America Wealthy Again Event” concluded, the markets had sustained those losses, with Nasdaq 100 futures indicating a potential 500-point decline from prior levels. Bitcoin, which was up 8.9% since Monday morning, instantly experienced the same turmoil, shedding 7.2% of its value. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, remarked via X: “I hope Bitcoiners learn that Trump’s tariffs are a net negative for Bitcoin and the US economy.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Watch This Key Price He further elaborated: “Trump has introduced too much uncertainty to the world economy with his tariffs. There’s a high enough chance of recession if the tariffs last long enough. This of course has hit Bitcoin and crypto prices in spite of a positive regulatory environment and [the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve].” Economic Projections While the precise long-term effects remain unclear, several prominent institutions have already issued forecasts. JPMorgan analysts warn: “On a static basis, today’s announcement would raise just under $400 billion in revenue, or about 1.3% of GDP, which would be the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968. We estimate that today’s announced measures could boost PCE prices by 1–1.5% this year… This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession. And this is before accounting for the additional hits to gross exports and to investment spending.” Simultaneously, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the average US tariff rate—once the new set of duties is enforced—could exceed levels not seen since World War II. They cautioned that the White House’s targeted tariff revenue of $600 billion per year may be optimistic, suggesting only half that amount might materialize based on current data. Additional exemptions—such as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber—amplified the confusion, indicating that the tariffs will vary widely by sector and country of origin. UBS, as quoted by The Kobeissi Letter, also raised the alarm about inflation: “BREAKING: UBS says a permanent implementation of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would result in inflation rising to 5%. This would be a result of prices rising to ‘adjust to the higher costs of imports.’ We are on the verge of 5% inflation and negative GDP growth.” Although President Trump hinted at forthcoming “largest tax cuts in American history,” markets did not bounce back on that news. He specified that Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits would be spared from cuts, but investors and analysts appeared more focused on the immediate shock from the tariff package. At press time, BTC recovered to $83,207. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com