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Morgan Stanley’s filing for a Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), coupled with MSCI’s decision to retain digital asset companies in its index, has ignited a wave of speculation among analysts. Notably, analysts from Bull Theory have alleged that these events could be indicative of a larger-scale market manipulation. Bitcoin Market Manipulation?  In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the Bull Theory analysts drew attention to the timeline of events involving Bitcoin, arguing that the trajectory from its October crash to its subsequent recovery in January resembles an orchestrated setup supported by data. The first significant trigger occurred on 10 October, when MSCI — previously a division of Morgan Stanley — proposed removing Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from its global indexes.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues: Strategy Purchases 1,287 BTC Amid Rising Prices This decision would affect firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, which hold substantial Bitcoin assets on their balance sheets. The implications were profound, given that MSCI’s indexes guide trillions of dollars in passive investments.  If these companies were removed, institutional investors, including pension funds and ETFs, would be compelled to divest, leading to a substantial contraction in institutional exposure to Bitcoin and an immediate tightening of liquidity.  Following that announcement, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by nearly $18,000, wiping out over $900 billion from the total crypto market cap. Morgan Stanley And The MSCI Shift The uncertainty continued with a consultation period that remained open until December 31. This three-month window of prolonged anxiety effectively froze investor demand for Bitcoin.  Passive investors became wary, index-linked funds faced potential forced selling, and as a result, prices saw a stark decline—with Bitcoin dropping about 31% and altcoins suffering even more, marking the worst quarter for crypto markets since 2018. However, the tide began to shift on January 1, 2026, as Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge, rising 8% in just five days. This $7,300 increase, from $87,500 to $94,800, left many analysts puzzled, especially since the relentless selling had seemingly halted abruptly.  The analysts noted that this sudden upturn could imply that insiders might have had prior knowledge of forthcoming developments. Then, the narrative shifted dramatically on January 5 and 6. In a matter of 24 hours, Morgan Stanley unveiled its plans for spot Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana ETFs.  This was followed by MSCI announcing its decision not to proceed with the previously proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies from its indexes.  A Calculated Move?  The sequence of these events has led the analysts to present a narrative: MSCI initiated pressure by threatening index removals in October, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and suppressed prices.  Related Reading: Solana Shatters Records: 2025 Annual Review Reveals New All-Time Highs In Key Metrics Once institutions had accumulated at lower prices, Morgan Stanley introduced its ETF, and MSCI subsequently removed the threat of exclusion, raising serious concerns about the possibility of coordinated efforts to manipulate market conditions. Bull Theory analysts assert that as the market now transitions back towards liquidity, the same entities that potentially orchestrated the prior downturn may be strategically positioned to profit from the rebound.  At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $91,550, having retraced 2% from the $95,000 2-month high reached at the beginning of the week.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As global geopolitical tensions intensify from trade fragmentation and sanctions to regional conflicts and currency weaponization, Bitcoin is increasingly emerging as a hedge outside the reach of politics. In an environment where traditional financial systems are shaped by state power and cross-border capital controls, BTC’s decentralized design is drawing renewed attention as a form of monetary insurance in an increasingly unstable world. Bitcoin’s Performance During Periods Of Instability The geopolitical tension may boost Bitcoin. Walter Bloomberg has noted on X that BTC’s recent rebound suggests rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly pushing investors toward cryptocurrencies. Walter made reference to 21Shares strategist Matt Mena’s statement, who stated that BTC is gaining recognition as a neutral reserve asset, alongside traditional safe havens such as gold and silver. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Being Absorbed By Powerful Financial Players — What This Means After falling more than 6% last year, BTC has historically avoided back-to-back annual declines, supporting the case for gains this year. BTC was last down 0.3% at $93,740, after reaching a seven-week high of $94,725 on Monday, underscoring its resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Considering most of the world is ecstatic with 8% annual returns, an analyst known as Juicy pointed out that the idea of doubling your money in one or two years is already an exceptional outcome for most average people. The hard truth is that most people will never hold their BTC long enough before they cash out 3 to 5 times their money, especially when BTC is down 50% in a bear market, because most people are emotionally attached to their money. Generational wealth with BTC is made by holding through multiple 50% bear market drawdowns across decades. The expert stated that his strategy is never to fully sell BTC, but to sell small portions at basic milestones like $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million, or even $10 million, while the main stack will not be sold. Extreme Supply And The Shift In Spot Momentum A trader known as DD highlighted that BTC traded directly into extreme supply just below Monday’s high and was aggressively rejected from there. This move was followed by a sharp push lower and was driven by heavy spot selling, confirming that this area remains a significant supply zone rather than a breakout point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks A Year-Long Bear Market If This Happens: On-Chain Data DD recalled the weak weekly low, a level that has now been cleared. The market is now in a phase where the response matters more than a continuation. If the price begins to form local accumulation inside demand, that would present an opportunity to look for long exposure. On the other hand, if BTC bounces back into supply and shows clear signs of weakness, then the short setup will also remain valid. Structurally, losing the $91,000 level will open the door towards the weak monthly low around $87,800, which stands out as the next downside level. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has kicked off 2026 on a good note, starting with the price breaking through the $94,000 barrier in early January, a threshold it hadn’t traded at for weeks. The surge wasn’t the result of a single cause, but rather a convergence of changing power between buying and selling pressure, improving institutional interest, on-chain signals pointing to a stabilizing market, and unexpected political developments in Venezuela that seem to have contributed to an appetite for risk assets. Geopolitical Risk-On Sentiment And Institutional Flows One of the important forces behind Bitcoin’s push towards $94,000 was the willingness among investors to take on risk across global markets, a mood shift that was shaped in part by dramatic political developments in Venezuela.  News that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces caused a chain reaction through equities, commodities and crypto, lifting risk-on sentiment as traders assessed the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the event. Perhaps the most interesting news event is the chatter around a potential Venezuelan shadow $60 billion Bitcoin reserve. This backdrop of rising confidence played into a broader return of institutional capital to Bitcoin. US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted significant net inflows at the start of 2026, with $116.95 million coming in on Friday, January 2 and $123.52 million coming in on Monday, January 5. These inflows helped lift the price of Bitcoin back into the low $90,000s and provided traction as buyers stepped in after the new year holiday lull. On-Chain Metrics Shows A Changing Market Tone According to analytical data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s market structure is stabilizing in the $80,000 to $95,000 range, sell pressure is beginning to fade, and momentum is beginning to recover. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index have moved into an upper-neutral zone, which shows a build-up in upside potential. Spot liquidity, though still thin, has expanded modestly without signs of speculative excess.  Related Reading: Same XRP Setup That Led To Over 1,000% Increase In 2017 Is Playing Out Again Glassnode noted that open interest is rebuilding cautiously and that options markets point to short-term volatility, which is a sign of both increasing participation and lingering sensitivity to profit-taking.  On-chain activity also shows a reduction in sell-side aggression alongside modestly improving spot volumes. However, Glassnode noted that structural demand is still subdued, and this places the recovery above $90,000 as a fragile one. Bitcoin Price Momentum. Source: @glassnode on X Related Reading: Early XRP Investors Sell-Offs Keep Price Low, Here’s How They’re Doing It These on-chain activities, alongside news events, worked together to help Bitcoin clear a technical hurdle at $90,000 which served as resistance throughout December 2025. The question now is whether this move signals the start of a sustained advance back above $100,000 or a temporary peak within a still-uneven market landscape. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,780, down by 0.5% from its intraday high of $94,343. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes argues that the US move to seize control of Venezuelan oil is less about geopolitics than electoral math and that the resulting policy mix of hotter nominal growth and capped energy costs is structurally bullish for Bitcoin and high-beta crypto. In a Jan. 6 essay titled “Suavemente,” the BitMEX co-founder frames the current moment through a deliberately simple lens: US politicians optimize for re-election, and the median voter optimizes for perceived economic wellbeing. “The question is, does the American colonization of Venezuela make Bitcoin/crypto number go up or down?” Hayes writes. Hayes’ core claim is that US political control is decided at the margins, and those margins respond overwhelmingly to the economy and inflation, particularly “food and energy” inflation. “Above all else… the only issue that the median voter cares about is the economy,” he writes. “It is easy to pump the economy, and by that, I mean nominal GDP. That is just a question of how much credit Trump can create.” Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows But Hayes insists the same playbook can backfire if inflation follows, especially at the pump. “The key metric for Americans is the price of gasoline,” he writes, arguing that limited public transportation makes gas prices a daily referendum on economic management. In that framework, Venezuela’s value is straightforward: suppress oil, suppress gasoline, and keep the “run the economy hot” promise intact without triggering voter backlash. He highlights what he calls a “10% rule”: “when the national average price of gasoline rises 10% or more in the three months preceding an election versus the average price in January of the same calendar year, control of one or more branches of government switches teams.” That dynamic, in his telling, creates two regimes that matter for markets: nominal GDP/credit up with oil up, or nominal GDP/credit up with oil flat-to-down. Why Bitcoin “Wins” If Oil Stays Contained Hayes’ bullish conclusion rests on the idea that oil prices constrain the durability of money printing, not the mechanics of Bitcoin itself. “Because of the energy used running computers engaged in proof of work mining, Bitcoin is the purest monetary abstraction there is,” he writes. “Therefore, the price of energy is irrelevant to the price of Bitcoin as all miners will face a parallel shift up or down in the price at the same time. The price of oil only matters regarding its ability to force politicians to stop printing money.” Related Reading: John Bollinger: Bitcoin BB Squeeze Breakout Targets $107,000 In his setup, the stress signals are macro-market ones: the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index, a measure of bond-market volatility. He argues that when oil rises far enough to push yields “close to 5%,” volatility spikes, leverage unwinds, and policymakers are pressured into a pivot. Hayes points to a prior episode as a template for reflexivity: “If you remember, Trump threatened tariffs so high… markets tanked, and the MOVE Index spiked to an intraday high of 172. The next day after the spike, Trump… ‘paused’ the tariffs, and markets bottomed then recovered violently.” Absent that stress, Hayes’ base case is aggressive credit expansion with oil “subsided if not outright fall,” which he ties directly to Bitcoin upside. He cites his “USD Liquidity Conditions Index” as evidence that Bitcoin’s trend tracks dollar liquidity, concluding: “As the amount of dollars expands, the price of Bitcoin and certain cryptos will sky rocket.” The essay also reads like a positioning memo. Hayes says his fund, Maelstrom, entered 2026 with “almost maximum risk,” low dollar-stable exposure, and an intention to rotate: “To obtain outperformance versus BTC and ETH, I will sell BTC to fund privacy positions and sell ETH to fund DeFi.” He names Zcash (ZEC) as the “privacy beta,” saying the fund is “already long a fuck ton of that” from 3Q25. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $93,841. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s daily chart is flashing what John Bollinger calls “a little classic technical analysis”: a well-formed base followed by a Bollinger Band Squeeze and an upside breakout that puts $100,000 and roughly $107,000 in view, so long as price can hold the move and avoid slipping back into the prior range. Bitcoin Rebound To $107,000 Next? “Near perfect base for BTCUSD with a Bollinger Band Squeeze and breakout,” Bollinger wrote alongside the chart. “First upside target 100,000, second ~107,000, third ??? If we fail here it is back into the trenches.” On the daily timeframe, BTC spent much of the late-year period carving out a sideways-to-slightly-higher base after the sharp Q4 selloff. The chart explicitly labels that “Base” region, with price repeatedly holding a low-to-mid $80,000s floor area before turning higher. That basing process matters in Bollinger’s framing because it provided the platform for volatility compression to do its work. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Recovery Extends Into 2026 as Charts Hint at Another Leg Higher The squeeze is visible in the Bollinger BandWidth panel at the bottom of the chart, where BandWidth sinks to a marked low (“Squeeze”) and then begins to turn up. That inflection is paired with a sharp surge in the %B panel (the middle indicator pane), where %B drives up through the 1.0 line, an on-chart signal that price has pushed beyond the upper Bollinger Band. Bollinger annotates that moment as the “Breakout,” and the price panel shows the market accelerating higher off the base as the bands begin to open. On Bollinger’s chart, BTC is trading at $94,484, with the upper band curling higher and the mid-band rising beneath price. In plain terms: the move is no longer just compression; it is active expansion. Bollinger’s chart draws two horizontal red targets above current price: the first at $100,000 and the second near $107,000. Related Reading: The Real Reason Bitcoin Is Stuck: Futures Trading Dwarfs ETFs 20-To-1 The risk control is equally clear in his commentary. “If we fail here it is back into the trenches,” he wrote, language that, in chart terms, points to BTC losing the breakout and slipping back into the prior base region which is capped at the $93,500 region. This price level is of utmost importance for Bollinger. What About ETH And XRP? Bollinger also addressed the broader crypto market:“Someone asked about ETHUSD. Same pattern, a bit delayed, following not leading,” he wrote, positioning ether as a lagging participant rather than the driver. For XRP, Bollinger’s take was more cautious despite the obvious lift. “And ripple, strong lift, but the pattern is weaker. BTC > ETH > XRP for now.” At press time, BTC traded at $93,325. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On Monday, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, announced a new acquisition of Bitcoin (BTC) in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Notably, this latest purchase brings the company’s total holdings to nearly 680,000 BTC, with current figures standing at 672,497 BTC.  Bitcoin Buys Vs. Stock Struggles Analysts, including Lirrato on the social media platform X, revealed that the company acquired 22,498 BTC in December alone. To reach the target of 680,000 BTC by January, Strategy needs only 7,503 more coins—an amount they surpassed last month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reaches $93,000 Amid Renewed Optimism: What To Keep An Eye On This Week However, despite this bullish acquisition, the company’s stock (MSTR) has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by over 50% throughout 2025 to its current trading price of around $163 on Monday.  Adding to the challenges facing Strategy, the firm could be just ten days away from being delisted from the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index, awaiting for the formal announcement.  In an October proposal, MSCI indicated that firms holding digital assets amounting to 50% or more of their total assets should be removed from its global benchmarks. This move was justified by MSCI’s assertion that these firms resemble investment funds, which are excluded from its indexes.  Strategy Braces For Potential Financial Turmoil  Presently, MSCI is conducting a public consultation, and if it determines that Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like Strategy should be excluded, it could set a precedent that other index providers might follow. In a public letter, Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le, and co-founder Michael Saylor discussed the possible implications of an MSCI exclusion. They estimated that such a decision could lead to around $2.8 billion worth of the company’s stock being liquidated, creating a potential chilling effect across the entire industry.  Analysts from TD Cowen highlighted that approximately $2.5 billion of Strategy’s market value is tied to MSCI, while an additional $5.5 billion hinges on other indexes. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that if MSCI were to exclude Strategy, the company could face $2.8 billion in outflows, a number that could escalate to $8.8 billion if it were delisted from additional indexes, including the Nasdaq 100, the CRSP US Total Market Index, and various Russell indexes owned by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Related Reading: Consumer Crypto Spending Grows in 2026 as Visa Reports Major Card Growth Alongside these potential challenges, Strategy may soon have to contend with substantial financial losses that starkly contrast the $2.8 billion profit they reported in the previous year’s third quarter.  Additionally, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index indicates that Michael Saylor has seen his personal wealth diminish dramatically during this downturn, dropping approximately 40% to about $3.8 billion. Nevertheless, on Monday, cryptocurrency prices saw a notable recovery, with Bitcoin and other digital assets such as Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL) and XRP climbing back above key levels, sparking a new wave of optimism among investors.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s current cycle has challenged nearly every assumption traders rely on to identify a full market cycle. Price has climbed steadily over the past two years, but the explosive move that points to the late stages of a Bitcoin bull phase has been absent.  According to an analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Sykodelic, the confusion is due to a structural change that separates this cycle from every major Bitcoin rally that came before it. The difference is not psychological or technical in the usual sense of a four-year cycle. Liquidity Difference In This Cycle The disconnect between Bitcoin’s current price action and previous four-year cycles has led to questions among crypto analysts over whether the cycle has already peaked or if something different is influencing its behavior beneath the surface.  For instance, during the 2020-2021 bull market, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with a period of extreme liquidity expansion. Bitcoin followed that inflowinto a classic parabolic blow-off once liquidity conditions reached their most expansive point. The chart shared by Sykodelic shows this trend clearly. The liquidity index peaked near the price top in 2021 after a stretch of growth from the quantitative expansion in late 2019. This was followed by a fall that aligned with the 2022 bear market, which eventually ended with the bear market bottom.  Related Reading: XRP Price Will Not Hit $1,000 In 2026, Analyst Reveals Best Timeline Interestingly, that pattern of Bitcoin’s price action following the liquidity index has repeated in every previous bullish cycle. This time, the structure is inverted. The liquidity index did not peak around Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high above $126,000. Instead, the liquidity has been ranging and only recently began stabilizing back around levels seen during the 2022 bear market bottom. One of the most unusual aspects of this cycle is how far Bitcoin has already traveled despite limited liquidity support. Sykodelic points out that Bitcoin advanced from the $15,000 region to well above $100,000 while global liquidity was range-bound, a trend that has never happened before. Bitcoin/US Dollar. Source: @Sykodelic_ on X Why The Parabola Has Been Delayed, Not Cancelled The absence of a parabolic surge has led many to assume the cycle is nearing exhaustion. However, Sykodelic argues the opposite. According to his interpretation of the global liquidity index, Bitcoin is not transitioning into a late-stage distribution phase but is currently bouncing from a liquidity trough. Previous crypto cycles relied heavily on unpredictable flows of money, but this cycle has leaned on new structural demand sources. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced persistent institutional inflows, while government-level adoption has changed Bitcoin’s role in crypto investment portfolios.  Related Reading: Popular Crypto Founder Dumps Millions In Ethereum, Here’s What He’s Buying Furthermore, the AI-stock boom has led to traditional equity markets absorbing much of the available liquidity, leaving less capital to rotate aggressively into altcoins and broader crypto markets. The chart shows liquidity beginning to turn upward just as quantitative tightening winds down and liquidity conditions start to increase. The projection is that once the liquidity starts to rise and quantitative easing expands, then Bitcoin might start the missing parabolic behavior that will take it to new price highs. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are rising today, with the flagship crypto rising to as high as $93,000. This market rally comes on the back of several factors, including the U.S.-Venezuela escalations, which have increased risk sentiment. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Are Up In an X post, market commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted that risky assets seem to be gaining momentum despite the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan president Maduro. This suggests risk sentiment may be back after the year-end decline in 2025, which has contributed to the recent rise in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices.  Related Reading: Here’s How Much BlackRock Spent Buying Bitcoin And Ethereum In 2025 The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are also rising on the back of an increase in the M2 money supply, which now stands at $22.4 trillion, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. This is bullish for crypto assets as some of this liquidity is expected to flow into the crypto ecosystem. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt continues to rise, standing at $38.6 trillion, a development that is bullish for crypto as investors hedge against inflation by allocating to these asset classes. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the Fed has also been carrying out its Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), which experts such as James Lavish have described as a form of quantitative easing (QE), which is positive for the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has even predicted that BTC could rally to as high as $200,000 on the back of this move from the Fed. Meanwhile, the Fed has also been injecting liquidity into the economy through the New York Fed’s repo operations.  Crypto Bulls Are Back In Control Market analyst Ted Pilliows also suggested that the crypto bulls are back in control, which is why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices are rising. In an X post, he noted that BTC has large sell orders from the $92,000 to $95,000 level on Binance. Ted added that if bulls push BTC above the $95,000 level, there is very little resistance until $100,000, suggesting a rally to this psychological level could be on the cards.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Reclaiming $0.128 Support Could Signal The Perfect Chance For Long Positions In another X post, the market analyst noted that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium is recovering, with institutional demand for BTC picking up again. SoSoValue data show that Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $471.14 million on January 2, their largest since December 17. A sustained daily net inflow could lead to higher prices for BTC, which is also a positive for the Ethereum and Dogecoin prices.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $92,400, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

On Monday, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $93,000 mark, spurred by a wave of renewed optimism that has also revitalized altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), all of which are experiencing recoveries not seen in nearly a month.  According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has recorded a weekly surge of 7%, while Ethereum and Solana have outperformed the leading cryptocurrency with increases of nearly 9% during the same period. Notably, XRP has taken the lead, boasting a significant 15% uptrend. Large Holders Drive Bitcoin Surge A key driver behind this recent surge, especially for Bitcoin, can be attributed to large holders, or “whales,” who have acquired approximately 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, amounting to roughly $23 billion.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Price On The Brink Of A 9,000% Rally To $10? What Historical Performance Shows Market analyst NoLimit highlighted this crucial development in a recent social media post, noting its significance: this accumulation represents 1.3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and marks the largest net buy from this group in 13 years. However, NoLimit asserts that this doesn’t imply that Bitcoin will see an immediate surge in its value. It indicates that long-term investors are aggressively positioning themselves even while the broader market sentiment remains mixed. Will BTC Establish A Macro Lower High? In the short term, though, market analyst Rekt Capital warns that despite Bitcoin hovering just above $93,400, it has closed its 12-month candle below the $93,500 mark. This suggests that the $93,500 level is likely to act as resistance moving forward.  Historical patterns across four-year cycles indicate that such resistances can hinder price movement for an extended period, often resisting for up to three years before being breached in the next Halving year. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows Should Bitcoin indeed be in the early stages of a bear market, this could imply that prices might surpass the $93,500 resistance in the coming months only to establish a macro lower high before continuing their downward trajectory.  According to Rekt Capital, the sustainable breakout above this resistance is more likely to occur in the next halving year in 2028. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin was designed as a decentralized monetary network with no single point of control, but the structure of its ownership is quietly evolving. As issuance declines and liquidity thins, a growing share of the BTC circulating supply has been moving into the hands of powerful financial institutions, resulting in a steady accumulation that reshapes the dynamics of the BTC market, liquidity, and long-term distribution. Does Institutional Adoption Change Bitcoin’s Purpose? The financial-industrial complex is in the process of centralizing as much Bitcoin as possible. Crypto investor Simon Dixon has revealed on X that institutions want to accumulate BTC as a useful tool for managing the final capital outflow squeeze once it is ready, following its Western asset-stripping operations.  Related Reading: Why The 2025 Close Below $100,000 Is Terrible For The Bitcoin Price As BTC is a proof-of-work, accumulating it does not grant governance control or long-term price discovery. However, the accumulation does provide the tools needed to manage short-term price action. Institutions are in the accumulation phase, and they want self-custody for themselves and institutional custody for everybody else. Therefore, they can channel large capital flows into BTC while preserving an exit tool for sovereign wealth.  This is similar to how the British Empire utilized tax haven islands as escape valves. According to Simon, BTC is one of their exit strategies for managing sovereign wealth in a world where custody of vast gold reserves requires trusted custodians. Nothing has changed in terms of how to prepare, and the strategy remains to own more BTC in self-custody this month than the previous month. Any price suppression now is an opportunity; it won’t last. Furthermore, the financial-industrial complex will engineer volatility through instruments like MicroStrategy and its derivatives ecosystem to margin-call as much BTC as possible while building more leverage tools. This isn’t about crypto, but a Silicon Valley liquidity grift, which is a way to supplement VC returns with added liquidity layered on top of private equity. Crypto is a technical industrial complex operation to build out the digital control grid. Why Bitcoin As A Financial Lifeboat The lesson of Venezuela is the best advertisement for Bitcoin ever created. Investor Fred Krueger noted that those who still had Bolivars in 2016 when hyperinflation began had a clear chance to accumulate BTC when it was trading below $1,000. Instead, they lost absolutely everything. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped In 2018, when the regime rolled out the Petro, buying BTC instead would have delivered over 30% in returns. That altcoin that represented oil was limited and was shelved in 2024. This is the lesson for the BRICS. “Maduro and his inner circle probably owned very little BTC, believing they would remain in power forever, but a lot of them are regretting that today,” Fred noted. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has entered a choppy weekend range, testing traders’ patience as price action slows and volatility compresses. Despite the sideways movement, a critical trend line just below current levels remains intact, keeping the broader market outlook cautious but far from broken. Bitcoin Drifts Into A Typical Weekend Range According to a recent update by Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin has entered a typical weekend range. Weekend trading is often characterized by low liquidity and choppy price action, which can make moves less predictable and more prone to false signals. Snyder is taking a cautious approach, waiting for a clear trigger at the boundaries of this range before committing to any trades.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Key Moving Averages Indicate An Imminent Drop To $38,000 Snyder notes that the $90,930 level could present a strong shorting opportunity if a liquidity sweep occurs and the price fails to hold. On the other hand, if Bitcoin demonstrates strength and manages to break above this threshold, it could signal bullish momentum, making long positions potentially attractive for traders looking to capitalize on a breakout. Similarly, the lower boundary near $88,430 is critical. A sweep below this level followed by a quick reversal could offer long positions. However, if the support fails and the market structure breaks, it would likely trigger continuation shorts. These levels act as key decision points where traders can gauge whether momentum favors buyers or sellers in the short term. Snyder emphasizes that these setups are primarily scalp trades, with lower risk exposure. The expert only executes trades when all confirmation signals align, ensuring that a clear technical rationale backs each position.  Looking ahead, external factors could add more volatility to Bitcoin’s price action. Geopolitical tensions and the return of major market participants next week are expected to increase trading volume and momentum, potentially turning these weekend range moves into larger trends.  BTC Holds Key Investor Tool Model Support Around $83,900 Crypto analyst Patel recently highlighted that Bitcoin is holding a key support level known as the Investor Tool Model Support, situated around $83,900, which also coincides with the 730-day moving average. This level has historically acted as a major pivot for Bitcoin, helping to gauge the broader market trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags According to Patel, a decisive break below this support has historically signaled the start of a confirmed bear market, while holding above it typically points to a corrective phase rather than a long-term downtrend. In other words, this level serves as a critical dividing line between temporary pullbacks and structural weakness. Currently, the $83,900 zone is a key area to watch closely. Price action around this support could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory or risks entering a more extended bearish phase, making it a pivotal point for decision-making in the market. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price and crypto market might have lagged behind the global financial market in terms of performance following the Christmas holiday. The story was a little different for the digital asset market after the New Year’s holiday, with altcoins specifically enjoying the bulk of the rally. On Friday, January 2nd, the premier cryptocurrency jumped to above the psychological $90,000 level. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that there is no need for investors to be excited about the recent Bitcoin price action. Bitcoin Price Needs To Cross The STH Average Cost At $99,000 In a January 2nd post on the X platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed that the recent price jump for Bitcoin does not say a lot about the current market structure. The on-chain data pundit’s evaluation is based on the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which currently lies around the $99,000 level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K For context, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is an on-chain metric that tracks the average price where Bitcoin short-term investors (holding for less than 115 days) acquired their coins. Being the average cost basis of the most reactive group of investors, the STH Realized Price often functions as a dynamic support and resistance level. While the price of BTC slipped beneath the Short-Term Holder Realized Price four times in the past year, it has been below this critical threshold since September 2025. According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin price needs to close above this STH Realized Price at $99,000 before bull run conversations can resume. Kesmeci wrote on X: No bull market without the short-term investor with a broken heart being made happy. This statement reiterates the importance of short-term investors in market dynamics. For instance, in this case, breaking the Short-Term Holder Realized Price would suggest the return of demand and confidence among the most reactive investor cohort. Data Converges Between $99,000 And $102,000 Furthermore, Kesmeci pointed out that additional on-chain data reinforces the critical importance of the $99,000 region to the Bitcoin price trajectory. The crypto analyst said that significant data is converging in the $99,000 – $102,000 range, and until this region is surpassed, the price of BTC might continue to struggle. In an earlier post on the X platform, Kesmeci had revealed that the price of BTC needs to close above $101,000 for the long-term trend to turn positive. This explains why the analyst later concluded that the $99,000 – $102,000 bracket is pivotal to Bitcoin’s health. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around $90,110, reflecting a roughly 2% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Faces Strong Social Discontent—Is A 50% Bullish Reversal Just Around The Corner? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross—a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections.  Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media site X (previously Twitter). Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction  Martinez emphasized the importance of watching the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin has registered a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by substantial corrections.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Long-Term Bullish Structure Still In Play And Will Cross $10 As seen in the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart below, past occurrences of such crossovers have led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022.  With the recent death cross-forming, Martinez suggests that if history is any guide, Bitcoin could face a correction between 50% and 60%, which would place its price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000.  Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future.  Two Scenarios For BTC’s Future Following Bitcoin’s downturn since its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. Coinciding with this, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the breakout zone. Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance exhibit an inverse correlation, Mags has identified two main scenarios moving forward. The first, a bullish scenario, hinges on the idea that if USDT dominance begins to decline, the current breakout could turn out to be a fakeout.  Mags asserts that such a move could potentially ignite another expansion in Bitcoin’s price, possibly even leading to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs. Related Reading: Here’s How Much The XRP Price Will Be If It Overtakes Ethereum In Market Cap Conversely, Mags outlined a second scenario indicating early signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin might experience a temporary bounce, while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range before trending back upwards.  In this case, BTC would exhibit a slow distribution pattern, marking neither a crash nor a rapid decline, but rather a gradual, choppy downward movement characteristic of initial bearish market behavior. The next move in USDT dominance is poised to play a crucial role in determining whether the current market represents a mere pause before further price continuation or the onset of an extended distribution phase leading up to a new all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Crypto Whale has explained why the Bitcoin price could still crash to as low as $25,000. The analyst also stated this would form the macro bottom for the leading crypto, as it recovers from this bear market.  Why The Bitcoin Price Could Drop To As Low As $25,000 In an X post, Crypto Whale stated that the monthly chart suggested that the Bitcoin price could form a macro bottom near $25,000 sometime in 2026. The analyst further remarked that if history rhymes, these deep retracements tend to mark long-term accumulation zones. He added that this doesn’t signify the end of the cycle but the reset before the next expansion.  However, in another X post, Crypto Whale suggested that the Bitcoin price isn’t yet in a bear market, highlighting how the 2026 bull run is likely to unfold. He stated that this month, the crypto market will see a Bitcoin-led rally, while there will be a broad altcoin expansion in February. The analyst expects the bull trap to set in in March, which he predicts would lead to volatility and panic selling.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Why The Bitcoin Price Is Extremely Bearish Right Now Once that happens, Crypto Whale predicts that May will usher in the capitulation phase, while a full bear market confirmation will happen in June. This outlook for the Bitcoin price comes as research firm XWIN Research noted that BTC has not clearly entered a new bullish trend. The firm further stated that the crypto market remains in a high-volatility range environment, which is neither decisively bullish nor bearish.  Meanwhile, XWIN Research raised the possibility that the Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $50,000. They stated that this could happen if recession risks intensify, with deleveraging and ETF outflows pushing the leading crypto below $80,000 and making $50,000 a possibility.  BTC Death Cross Signals Drop To $38,000 In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a death cross, which has been recurring on the BTC weekly chart. The analyst noted that if history repeats itself, the Bitcoin price could record a similar 50% to 60% correction, dropping to as low as $38,000 in the process.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Decision Phase, But What Does It Mean For The Crypto Market? This death cross between the 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages is said to have occurred in September 2014, leading to a Bitcoin price correction of 67%. It also occurred in June 2018, March 2020, and January 2022, resulting in price corrections of 54%, 53%, and 64%, respectively.  Martinez opined that the zone between $50,000 and $38,000 is starting to become interesting from a long-term spot accumulation standpoint. He added that the market will confirm the next move for the Bitcoin price in its own time.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $88,700, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines suggest, and more to do with the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures activity cools. That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “cut in half since November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in daily volume to $63 billion. Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place The slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst. In other words, even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to ETFs, which have experienced significant outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly remain the dominant force in overall volumes.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped Darkfost pointed to net taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.” In his telling, the market has been living with that bias for months. Since July, net taker volume has “generally remained negative,” he said, with one notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, allowing Bitcoin to set a new all time high, but selling pressure quickly regained control. Today, selling volumes continue to dominate and have kept Bitcoin trapped in a range for about a month.” There is, however, a tentative improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote, adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break out of its current consolidation phase.” Demand Is Key In a separate X post, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno added a broader framing that shifts attention away from chart-based cycle narratives and toward demand dynamics. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” Moreno wrote. “Bitcoin demand is contracting on monthly terms and slowing down significantly on an annual basis (and about to get into negative territory).” Alongside the futures-driven explanation for Bitcoin’s stall, the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) emerged in recent weeks as the main driver for Bitcoin lagging performance against the stock market and gold. As reported yesterday, the long-term holder selling appeared to have stopped, according to multiple on-chain commentators, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held coins. Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, Institutions And Experts Forecast In his latest post, leading Glassnode analyst CryptoVizArt argued the change is more about tempo than direction. “LTHs didn’t stop selling,” the analyst wrote, claiming LTHs “are still spending ~7.3k BTC/day (7D SMA) and still realizing

Bitcoin’s short-term price action is still without bullish momentum, and according to macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg, the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating as well.  Henrik Zeberg shared a strongly bearish assessment of the market’s current structure in a post on the social media platform X with the conclusion that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an asset in a healthy expansion phase. Instead, he described Bitcoin as approaching an important peak, warning that the current structure carries an elevated risk of a sharp downside move once that peak is in place. Bitcoin’s Expanding Diagonal Points To Price Top Zeberg’s Bitcoin outlook is based on the expanding diagonal structure on Bitcoin’s monthly candlestick timeframe chart. This long-term pattern, which has been playing out since Bitcoin’s creation, shows increasing volatility, with the Bitcoin price making higher highs and lower lows with a widening range.  Related Reading: People Are Not Ready For Bitcoin; Analyst Reveals What’s Coming Next According to the chart he shared, Bitcoin appears to be completing the final stages of this structure, and this is expected to be characterized by exhaustion. Zeberg labels the current zone as a topping area, where upside progress becomes increasingly unstable even if the price continues to increase. Interestingly, the chart projected a final surge as a blow-off top that could carry Bitcoin to the mid-$150,000 range. However, in this framework, that final push is not a sign of strength but a hallmark of late-cycle overconfidence. Expanding diagonals tend to resolve violently once the structure breaks, and Zeberg views the current setup as looking like where optimism peaked just before a reversal. From Euphoria To A Deep Crash Scenario Zeberg’s most controversial claims are in his projected downside targets. According to him, once the final euphoric rally plays out and Bitcoin reaches above $150,000, it could enter into a collapse on a scale that most Bitcoin investors currently consider unthinkable.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts When The Bitcoin Supercycle Will Actually Begin He compared the setup to the dot-com era, when the Nasdaq fell by more than 80%, and noted that Bitcoin has historically amplified both upside and downside moves. Based on that logic, he predicted a scenario where a broader AI and crypto bubble unwinds, leading to a Bitcoin price crash of about 97% or 98% from the eventual peak. This translates into a technical minimum target between $3,000 and $4,000, with the possibility of even deeper declines. Although the final rally may be dramatic, holding through the subsequent crash could be devastating for unprepared investors. Zeberg also highlighted momentum indicators that he believes support the bearish outlook. Bitcoin is showing what he describes as massive bearish divergence on the monthly timeframe. This is a situation where price continues to grind higher but momentum indicators such as the RSI fail to confirm those highs.  Another indicator is the monthly MACD, which is also approaching, or already printing, a bearish crossover on the long-term chart. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The industry is realizing that Bitcoin was deliberately designed to prioritize simple, deterministic validation over complex on-chain execution. This design choice minimizes resource requirements, preserves decentralization, and reduces systemic risk even if it means pushing complex logic, programmability, and heavy computation to higher layers or external systems. How Bitcoin Avoids Complex State Transitions The fundamental limitation of Bitcoin is its inability to run heavy verification logic at a low cost, a core constraint that every BitVM-based bridge must navigate. According to the GOAT Network post on X, to address these issues, they are introducing a BitVM2 design that will ensure disputes are affordable enough to be executed under real fee conditions. The security mechanism is addressed through optimistic verification using garbled circuits (GC). Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags This operator, which is set to launch soon, publishes the garbled-circuit artifacts off-chain, while committing only the relevant labels on-chain. If the computation is correct, no on-chain action will be required. Meanwhile, if something is wrong, a challenger does not need to replay an expensive computation on-chain.  Instead, they produce a minimal fraud-proof to reveal the output “0” label that contradicts the operator’s claimed result. At that point, the on-chain step is about demonstrating a contradiction, which will reduce the cost of disputes and change the economics of security.  A practical detail in BitVM designs is that the garbled circuit size matters, and pairing heavy verification can cause bloated circuits. To avoid this, BitVM2 integrates a designated-verifier SNARK, which reduces verifier complexity so that the garbled circuits remain within realistic size limits. For end users, the implication is that the cheaper, more reliable depute paths make it harder for the bridge to stall when the fees spike.  Public Companies Are Becoming Bitcoin’s Strongest Buyers While several projects are being introduced to improve the efficiency of Bitcoin, seasoned crypto expert and the founder of the Wealth Mastery Newspaper, Lark Davis, has revealed that many public companies are aggressively accumulating BTC. Currently, public companies collectively hold 1.09 million BTC, representing 5.1% of the total BTC supply, which is a new all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 However, the latest major aggressive purchases have come from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. Strategy just announced another 1,200 BTC purchase, pushing its total holdings to 672,000 BTC. Asia-based firm Metaplanet also bought an additional 4,200 BTC in December, bringing its total holdings to 35,000 BTC. Davis pointed out that other recent purchases have come from Cango Inc., Bitdeer Technologies, and Anap Holdings. While retail investors are demonstrating weakening sentiment, public companies or institutional investors continue to stack regardless of the ongoing market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of hesitation after a strong upward move, positioning the market at a critical decision phase. A crypto analyst has shared details on whether the current pause reflects healthy consolidation or a shift in momentum that could influence the broader crypto market.  A recent analysis by crypto analyst Tony Severino shows that Bitcoin is entering a critical decision phase, with price action indicating a maturing trend. His chart highlights a robust upward structure that has begun to slow, signaling a shift in market behavior rather than an immediate price reversal. Notably, this moment is significant not just for Bitcoin but for the broader crypto market, which often follows its lead.  Crypto Market Next Move As Bitcoin Hits Key Phase Severino’s chart illustrates a steady climb in Bitcoin’s price, marked by higher highs and measured pullbacks, indicating that buyers have largely been in control. However, recent candles show slower momentum and smaller bodies, suggesting that BTC’s bullish strength is starting to waver. The analyst has stated that the market is currently testing whether buyers still have the strength to push prices to upper levels or if Bitcoin’s upward move has run its course. Related Reading: Economist Blasts Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet, Despite $8 Billion Profits, Here’s Why Another key feature of the chart is the Doji candle forming near the top of the trend. Severino notes that this candle should not be interpreted as a sell signal, but rather an acknowledgement by the market that Bitcoin’s upside certainty has ended. The candle is also viewed as an early sign of hesitation, with multiple market outcomes possible.  Severino explained that the market could enter a period of digestion, where Bitcoin’s price consolidates while maintaining a larger uptrend. Alternatively, the pause could signal distribution, with stronger hands beginning to transfer risk as BTC’s momentum fades.  Another possibility is a final push higher driven by renewed conviction and late-cycle momentum. In that scenario, Bitcoin could break out of its current slowdown and extend gains before any new correction. Notably, Severino’s chart analysis does not confirm which path the market could ultimately take, only that the next sequence is expected to be decisive.  Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Decline To $35,000 In a separate post, crypto market expert Lofty warned that Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, potentially triggering a deeper price crash. He pointed out striking similarities between the current BTC cycle and the 2021 bull run, highlighting a Double Top pattern that has preceded a significant price drop in the past cycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Crypto Trader Explains What Happens Next According to Lofty, if Bitcoin follows its historical four-year trend, its price could collapse to $35,000 within the next two weeks. Notably, the cryptocurrency has already completed its Double Top formation and is showing early signs of a prolonged downtrend. If the price declines to $35,000, it would represent a more than 60% drop from its current value of over $88,500. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is stuck in a tight consolidation after its sharp rejection from the $100,000 region, with price compressing into a narrow range that reflects growing market tension. As momentum builds beneath the surface, attention is focused on a decisive breakout or breakdown that could define Bitcoin’s next major move. Bitcoin Trapped In Post-Breakdown Compression According to analyst CyrilXBT, Bitcoin remains mired in a period of intense price compression following its significant breakdown from the $100,000 threshold. This cooling-off phase reflects the market’s attempt to stabilize after being rejected at a historic milestone, resulting in a loss of immediate upward momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovering In A Descending Range, But Alts Are Quietly Gaining Momentum The current technical structure is defined by a series of lower highs, which are effectively squeezing the price into an increasingly narrow corridor. This tightening action is concentrated around the $88,000 to $90,000 range. It creates a high-pressure environment where the asset is searching for its next definitive directional catalyst. CyrilXBT characterizes this current behavior as “classic post-distribution chop,” a phase typically followed by a period where large holders exit positions, leading to erratic sideways movement. It also serves as a necessary reset before a new trend can be established. Looking forward, the market is approaching a period of increased volatility that could resolve in two ways. Bitcoin will either stage a bullish breakout through the descending trendline or undergo a final “flush” to the downside, wiping out over-leveraged long positions. Ultimately, this consolidation serves as a strategic battleground to determine which market participants will be shaken out before the next major move. Price Compression Signals A Bigger Move Ahead In a market assessment, Daan Crypto Trades observed that despite the ongoing sideways movement, Bitcoin’s underlying market health remains stable. Specifically, both the BTC funding rates and the spot premium have held their ground, suggesting that the current chop hasn’t yet led to the massive de-leveraging or sentiment shifts often seen during volatile corrections. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow As Bitcoin remains compressed within this range, a major volatility expansion is highly likely. Based on current trends, a decisive move is expected to materialize within the next one to two weeks as the market reaches a breaking point in its consolidation. The primary recommendation during this uncertain phase is to exercise patience and wait for a confirmed breakout rather than attempting to trade every minor fluctuation. By avoiding the temptation to over-leverage in the middle of this range, traders can protect their capital and wait for clear confirmation of the next trend. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort appears to have stopped net selling, according to multiple on-chain commentators, in a shift that could remove a key source of structural supply pressure heading into 2026. The change hinges on a supply-change read of long-term holders (coins held longer than six months), which had been negative for months but has now turned modestly positive, said on-chain analyst Darkfost. Is This The Bitcoin Bottom Signal? Darkfost argues that recent claims about long-term holders “selling more than ever” miss what the data is actually showing, especially when large, discrete exchange-related movements skew the picture. “On this chart, which I adjusted to isolate the movement of nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase that was distorting LTH data, we can observe a clear shift in supply change,” Darkfost wrote. “Since July 16, the monthly LTH supply change (30 day sum) had been firmly anchored in a distribution phase until recently.” Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, Institutions And Experts Forecast In plain terms, that meant the share of supply held by long-term holders had been declining for much of the second half of 2025, a regime that tends to coincide with persistent sell pressure as older coins rotate into the market. That phase, Darkfost said, has now ended, at least for the moment. “We have now moved back into positive territory, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held coins,” Darkfost wrote, calling it “a very modest change,” but “not insignificant.” The implication is that long-term holders have eased off distribution enough for their aggregate holdings to start rising again, even as short-term holders “continue to hold their BTC,” in Darkfost’s framing. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju echoed the directional takeaway in a shorter post, saying, “Bitcoin long-term holders stopped selling.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks A Year-Long Bear Market If This Happens: On-Chain Data VanEck’s head of digital research Matthew Sigel characterized the turn as a meaningful shift in positioning pressure via X. “BTC: Long-term holders turn net accumulators, easing a major Bitcoin headwind and ending, for now, the largest sell pressure event from this cohort since 2019,” Sigel wrote. Renowned expert James Van Straten added historical context to the scale of the move, saying the magnitude of distribution “marked the 2019 bottom as well,” suggesting the current inflection is notable even if it doesn’t, by itself, guarantee a repeat. Darkfost also pointed to historical patterning around these flips. “Historically, such shifts have often preceded the formation of consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries, depending on how the broader trend evolves,” he wrote, emphasizing conditions rather than certainty. At press time, BTC traded at $88,623. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price action has pushed a closely watched on-chain profitability gauge into a configuration that, in 2022, preceded an extended drawdown and one analyst says a break below $70,000 would risk repeating that “year-long” reset. In a Dec. 30 morning brief, Axel Adler Jr. argued that Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” trend is at an inflection point after BTC stabilized in the $87,000–$90,000 range following the pullback from October highs. The metric, which tracks how much BTC is held above its acquisition price, has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.2 million BTC, creating a sizable gap between short- and medium-term moving averages. A 2022-Like Setup Looms For Bitcoin Adler’s core signal is the spread between the 30-day and 90-day simple moving averages of Supply in Profit. After the correction from the all-time high, the 30-day average “dropped significantly below” the 90-day, forming a gap of about 1.75 million BTC. Adler noted that “a similar configuration was observed in 2022 before an extended bearish period,” but stressed an important distinction this time: the 365-day moving average remains “at historically elevated levels for now,” implying the longer-term profit structure hasn’t fully rolled over. Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year The near-term question is whether the 30-day trend has bottomed. Adler flagged Dec. 18 as a local minimum for the 30-day average and said it is now “beginning to turn around,” with confirmation tied to a simple condition: Supply in Profit must hold above its 30-day average, which in practice requires BTC to keep its footing at current levels or higher. Adler’s projection for a bullish recovery in this signal is unusually specific: he estimates the gap between the 30-day and 90-day averages is narrowing at roughly 28,000 BTC per day, mainly because the 90-day average is being pulled down mechanically as high October values roll out of the window. “Why is SMA 90 falling while price remains stable?” Adler wrote in the brief’s FAQ. “This is a mechanical effect of the moving average: values from early October are now dropping out of the 90-day window, when Supply in Profit was at peaks of 18–20M BTC with price at $115–125K. Even with stable current Supply, this pulls the average down.” Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, Institutions And Experts Forecast That rollover effect, Adler said, should persist through late January, providing a “tailwind” that could allow the 30-day line to reclaim the 90-day line even without a dramatic surge in Supply in Profit. If the current rates of change hold, Adler projects a bullish cross — where the 30-day average rises above the 90-day — in late February to early March. The Invalidation: $70,000 The forecast, however, is explicitly price-sensitive. Adler estimated Supply in Profit has “elasticity to price” of 1.3x, meaning a 10% BTC drawdown could translate into about a 13% drop in the supply held in profit. In his model, the market’s critical fault line is the $70,000 zone. “At what price does the cross scenario get invalidated?” Adler wrote. “The critical zone is below $70K. At that level, Supply would fall to ~10M BTC, and SMA 30 would begin declining faster than SMA 90. The GAP would stop narrowing and shift to expansion, postponing the bullish signal indefinitely.” In that scenario, Adler said the setup would more closely mirror 2022: the spread expands rather than compresses, and the bullish cross gets pushed out, with recovery potentially taking “up to one year.” By contrast, he framed the constructive path as holding above $75,000–$80,000 through January, keeping Supply in Profit supported and preserving the convergence pace. At press time, BTC traded at $88,102. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a slight recovery, edging back above the $89,000 mark as it attempts to break through the $90,000 resistance level. Nonetheless, concerns loom over further downward moves, raising worries about the risks this trend poses to firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Analysts at the Bull Theory have posed a critical question regarding the potential financial vulnerabilities of Michael Saylor’s Strategy should Bitcoin drop to the critical $74,000 price threshold.  This narrative suggests that a drop to this key price point could place Strategy in financial jeopardy or force the company to sell its Bitcoin assets. However, the analysts assert that these dire predictions do not align with the real financial situation of the company. Debunking Insolvency Fears Currently, Strategy boasts a major 672,497 BTC stockpile valued at approximately $58.7 billion on its balance sheet. In contrast, its total debt stands at about $8.24 billion.  The Analysts emphasize that even if Bitcoin were to decline to $74,000, the total value of its Bitcoin holdings would still be around $49.76 billion—well above its liabilities. Thus, they assert that there is no feasible scenario where a decline from $87,000 to $74,000 would lead to insolvency. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Influx: Strategy Grabs 1,200 BTC, Bitmine Immersion Ups ETH by 44,000 A crucial point of distinction is that Strategy does not operate like a hedge fund dealing with margin loans; it has no collateral-backed Bitcoin debt, which means there are no liquidations triggered by price drops.  As the analysts explain, the concerns surrounding forced selling stem from applying trading logic to a corporate balance sheet. The Bitcoin that Strategy holds is neither pledged as collateral nor subjected to margin calls.  Instead, the firm’s borrowings come from unsecured convertible notes, thus lenders do not have the right to demand Bitcoin simply due to falling prices. External Pressures Impacting Strategy  Liquidity remains another concern for some investors who fear that Strategy might be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin to manage its obligations. However, the company has set aside a reserve of $2.188 billion in USD, enough to cover approximately 32 months of its dividend payments, which range between $750 million and $800 million annually.  So, what accounts for the recent decline in Strategy’s stock price if the company’s fundamentals are sound? The analysts highlighted that since October, several external factors have generated fear around Strategy, not due to concerns about insolvency but because of shifting market conditions and institutional positioning. Beginning on October 10, the MSCI index proposed new regulations that could potentially remove companies with over 50% of their assets in Bitcoin from their indexes. This created apprehension about forced index selling, even though a final decision is yet to be made on January 15, 2026.  Additionally, analysts at JPMorgan raised margin requirements for trading Strategy’s stock from 50% to 95%, leading some investors to reduce their exposure, which in turn resulted in selling pressure. Dilution Dangers But while Strategy’s balance sheet appears robust, certain risks merit vigilance. One significant risk highlighted by Bull Theory analysts is dilution. The company has frequently relied on issuing new shares to enhance its Bitcoin holdings.  Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year While many investors view this strategy positively, concerns arise that continuous share issuance during a downtrend may heighten dilution, ultimately weakening existing shareholder value. Additionally, there are concerns that excessive dilution could drive Strategy’s net asset value (NAV) ratio below 1, an important threshold that would limit the company’s ability to raise new capital through share issuance.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $89,200, having recorded slight gains of 1.5% over the previous 24 hours. Strategy’s stock (MSTR) is trading at $157 per share, mirroring BTC’s surge with gains of 1.25% in the same time frame.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with an unusual setup. Despite printing a new all-time high in October, the price has since pulled back enough to put the annual performance at risk of closing negative. That difference puts into context how the current cycle should be interpreted and what it means for Bitcoin’s price outlook. According to one analyst, the answer is less dramatic than it may appear at first glance, and Bitcoin might be about to enter into a bear market. A Red Close Would Identify A Bear Market, Not A Broken Cycle Bitcoin’s long-term price action has often followed a familiar rhythm, with three consecutive green yearly candles eventually giving way to a red close. This sequence has appeared multiple times since 2011, leading many traders to expect the same structure to repeat in the current cycle. This time, however, the pattern has shifted. Although both 2023 and 2024 closed in the green, 2025 is on track to finish negative, interrupting the usual progression. Related Reading: Why The Current XRP Valuation Doesn’t Make Sense Crypto analyst CryptoBullet noted that a red close for Bitcoin in 2025 would simply confirm that the cycle has transitioned into a bear phase, not that the four-year cycle is broken. In his view, the color of the yearly candle is often misunderstood. What matters most is where Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows, not whether a specific post-halving year finishes green or red. He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the yearly candle is likely to form a doji candlestick. In technical analysis, doji candles reflect indecision after strong upside expansion and often lead to trend reversals.  In this context, such a close would correspond with Bitcoin having already completed its cycle top earlier in October, when it reached a new peak of $126,080. In previous cycles, once a new high is set in the post-halving year, Bitcoin’s price action transitions into a prolonged corrective phase regardless of how that year ultimately closes. Bitcoin Chart Image From X. Source: @CryptoBullet1 What To Expect For Bitcoin In 2026 Responding to comments on his technical analysis on X, Crypto analyst CryptoBullet reiterated that he is sticking with an analysis he first shared on December 2, which also proposes that Bitcoin’s cycle top is already in. Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,396 and has since fallen well below its October peak, a structure he says closely resembles the post-top consolidation seen in 2019. Related Reading: $130 Million XRP Fumble: Analyst Reveals What Went Wrong In that earlier cycle, Bitcoin spent months trading roughly 30% below its high while altcoins, measured through the OTHERS/BTC chart, formed a cycle bottom and began to recover. CryptoBullet believes the same dynamic is unfolding now, but on a larger scale, with altcoins having underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years.  Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X Based on that setup, he expects a dead cat bounce in early 2026, accompanied by a short-lived rotation into altcoins, before a much deeper correction takes hold across Bitcoin as the bear market progresses. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are displaying sharply diverging fund flow trends, with XRP emerging as the most accumulated digital asset in the latest CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report. With Bitcoin and Ethereum jointly recorded nearly $500 million in outflows, the data illustrates a shift in investor positioning away from the market’s largest assets toward select alternatives amid ongoing volatility. XRP Inflows Highlight Selective Demand Contrasting sharply with the redemptions sweeping through Bitcoin and Ethereum products, XRP has continued to register major inflows. CoinShares data shows XRP-linked investment vehicles attracted $70.2 million in new capital last week, reflecting ongoing interest from investors in these nascent ETF categories. Since their mid-October US launches, XRP has accumulated about $1.07 billion in inflows, a remarkable trajectory given the prevailing outflow environment for larger assets.  Related Reading: XRP Price May Be Bearish Below $2, But On-Chain Data Tells A Different Story This bifurcation in fund flows underscores a selective repositioning among investors. While broad risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum grapple with selling pressure, XRP’s performance shows that certain niche products are still attracting interest even in a downtrend. This pattern may be likely due to different expectations about regulations, adoption, or the impact of newly launched ETF products aimed at specific investors. Bit-Heavy Outflows: Bitcoin And Ethereum Under Pressure Despite their dominant roles in the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum endured significant net outflows during the reporting week ended December 29, contributing the lion’s share of the overall outflow figure. According to CoinShares, Bitcoin-linked products recorded approximately $443 million in redemptions, representing nearly the totality of the weekly withdrawal from crypto investment vehicles. Ethereum-focused products also saw $59.5 million exit, adding to a broader pattern of institutional caution toward the largest digital assets. These negative flows have accumulated since the mid-October US ETF launches, with Bitcoin recording roughly $2.8 billion and Ethereum about $1.6 billion in outflows over this period. The concentration of redemptions in the United States, where $460 million left digital asset funds, highlights a prevailing aversion among domestic investors toward reallocating capital into BTC and ETH during periods of price volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Related Reading: Banks Could Start Holding XRP Due To This Simple Change The sustained outflows amid weak sentiment reflect broader investor behavior during market stress. When capital flees established assets, it often signals profit-taking, risk reduction, or shifts into alternative strategies or cash positions, all of which can exert downward price pressure and prolong short-term weakness. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this trend suggests that even their extensive adoption and liquidity have not insulated them from pullbacks in institutional demand. Overall, the latest fund flow data signals a clear rotation in investor attention. While Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to experience significant outflows, XRP is drawing capital, emphasizing a market environment where targeted assets are increasingly capturing the focus of both institutional and retail participants as 2026 approaches. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

BlackRock has transferred a significant amount of BTC to the crypto exchange Coinbase, sparking concerns about a sell-off. This comes as the Bitcoin price continues to struggle to break above $90,000 successfully.  Bitcoin Price At Risk as BlackRock Transfers BTC Arkham data shows that Blackrock deposited 2,201 BTC ($192.13 million) into Coinbase, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of further decline amid increasing selling pressure. The move followed the outflow recorded by BlackRock’s BTC ETF on December 26, with Bitcoin funds as a group seeing a net outflow of $275.88 million.  Related Reading: Bitcoin News: Here’s How Much Was Liquidated In The Crypto Market In 2025 These Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a seven-day outflow streak, which also prompted BlackRock to deposit 6,174.39 BTC last week, likely to offload these coins and redeem shares of its BTC fund. The Bitcoin price has struggled to break above $90,000 amid these outflows from the BTC funds.  Notably, the Bitcoin price had broken above $90,000 on December 28 but quickly lost those gains yesterday as BlackRock moved the coins to Coinbase. Crypto pundit Martini claimed that BlackRock wasn’t the only one putting significant selling pressure on the flagship crypto. He alleged that Binance, Wintermute, Coinbase, and Fidelity also sold a significant amount of BTC, collectively dumping $3.5 billion yesterday.  Crypto pundit Bull Theory claimed that there was a weekend manipulation as the Bitcoin price pumped $3,000 and broke $90,000, liquidating $103 million worth of shorts this Sunday. He then noted that on Monday morning, BTC dumped $2,700 and liquidated $40 million worth of longs, erasing its entire pump in the process. With the current price action, BTC is heading for a red yearly close, as it is currently down over 6% year-to-date (YTD).  BTC Could Bottom Out Soon Against Other Major Assets In an X post, crypto analyst Kevin Capital stated that most of the data continues to become more favorable for the Bitcoin price, putting in a bottom against the equity markets and gold in the coming weeks. He added that the data also points to the flagship crypto outperforming these assets. The analyst stated that this was based on just factual data and not emotions.   Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bear Market, And This Data Backs It Up The Bitcoin price had notably outperformed these major assets at the start of the year but has since fallen behind, following the October 10 crypto crash. Gold is up 66% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 17% since the start of the year. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also predicted that BTC could soon rally, noting that the long-term holders have stopped selling for the first time since July 2025.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,300, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

After a year in which many prominent 2025 Bitcoin calls proved wide of the mark, the 2026 forecast slate is being framed less as “targets” and more as scenario ranges: mostly bullish, but with a long bearish tail that stretches as far as $10,000. A Wu Blockchain roundup published Dec. 29 argued that the market’s tolerance for target-price narratives has eroded after last year’s “collective miss,” yet major banks, asset managers, and industry executives are still putting numbers and models on what could drive Bitcoin through 2026. The center of gravity sits in a familiar band: roughly $150,000 to $250,000 by end-2026, built on institutional allocation and spot ETF channels. The bears, by contrast, are leaning on macro tightening, slowing demand, or broken technical structure, with downside scenarios clustered at $70,000, $56,000, $25,000, and an outlier $10,000. The Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions For 2026 Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has repeatedly pointed to $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026, arguing that expanding institutional allocation and the plumbing that makes it easier to express, particularly ETFs can reshape cycle dynamics. That framing sits alongside a more tactical note from within the same shop: Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, flagged the risk of a deeper early-2026 pullback with BTC at $60,000–$65,000 in the first half of the year, plus ETH at $1,800–$2,000 and SOL at $50–$75. Crypto industry leaders also landed on six-figure outcomes. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he expects BTC to reach $180,000 by end-2026 during a Binance Blockchain Week panel alongside Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and Binance CEO Richard Teng. Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year On the bank side, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou team pegged a “theoretical price / implied fair value” near $170,000 using a volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold relative valuation framework, positioning it more as a model-implied upper reference over the next 6–12 months than a hard year-end target. Standard Chartered, once among the more aggressive bulls, revised down sharply: it now expects roughly $100,000 by end-2025 and $150,000 in 2026, citing market weakness and fading drivers, including reduced DAT buying and slowing ETF inflows. That $150,000 neighborhood is crowded. Bernstein reiterated a 2026 target of about $150,000, arguing the latest drawdown does not end the bull market and that the cycle is increasingly extended by institutional capital rather than constrained by the four-year halving cadence. Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserve company BSTR, also pointed to $150,000 by end-2026, tying the thesis to clearer US regulation, potential monetary easing — including an end to QT and expectations of rate cuts and continued ETF penetration, with some large banks allowing advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs at suggested allocation ranges of roughly 1%–4%. Citigroup’s framework was more explicitly scenario-based. With Bitcoin around $88,000 in the bank’s note, Citi projected $143,000 over the next 12 months. about 62% upside. anchored to expected ETF inflows and potential US digital-asset legislation. It flagged $70,000 as a key support level, with a bearish case near $78,500 and a bullish scenario at $189,000 if institutional and retail participation scale meaningfully. Arthur Hayes linked his 2026 range to monetary policy semantics. In his Dec. 19 essay “Love Language,” Hayes focused on the Fed’s “RMP (Reserve Management Purchases),” arguing it is effectively QE by another name, and suggested Bitcoin could break above roughly $124,000 in 2026 and test the ~$200,000 level as global money creation accelerates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Red Yearly Close: Galaxy Digital Explains The Setup Asset managers were less numeric and more directional. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook predicted a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing sustained institutional demand and a progressively clearer US regulatory environment. Bitwise, in “The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026,” argued 2026 is more likely to “belong to the bulls,” contending that institutional adoption and regulatory progress can outweigh the usual late-cycle pullback narrative tied to the four-year rhythm. Bearish Bitcoin Price Predictions For 2026 The bearish case in the Wu Blockchain roundup is not a single thesis so much as multiple failure modes. CryptoQuant argued that demand growth has slowed enough that Bitcoin may already be in a bear phase, with a nearer-term move toward ~$70,000 and a deeper pullback toward ~$56,000, around its model’s realized price, framed as more plausible in the second half of 2026 if institutional demand weakens and derivatives risk appetite fades. Veteran trader Peter Brandt focused on technical structure rather than demand. He warned that a parabolic growth structure has broken and, based on historical cycle behavior and the idea of “exponential decay” in each successive bull run, said an ~80% drawdown from an all-time high could point toward ~$25,000 as a downside reference. The most extreme call came from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who warned Bitcoin could drop to around $10,000 in 2026, roughly an 88%–90% decline from its all-time high, on a macro shift toward “post-inflation deflation,” tighter liquidity, and a broader speculative-asset reset. Barclays and VanEck avoided explicit targets but arrived at a similar mood: absent major catalysts, 2026 could be flat to weaker, with declining spot volumes and faded retail participation. VanEck described a “consolidation” year, more digestion than breakout, with opportunities shifting toward second-order developments like mining economics and stablecoin payments rather than headline price levels. Taken together, the 2026 map reads less like a consensus trade and more like a stress test: if ETF and institutional channels keep compounding and policy tailwinds materialize, six figures remain the modal forecast. If demand stalls or macro liquidity tightens, the market’s lower-bound debates — $70,000, $56,000, $25,000, or even $10,000 — will matter just as much for positioning as the bulls’ $150,000–$250,000 ceiling. At press time, BTC traded at $88,027. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After setting a new all-time high back in early October, the Bitcoin price entered into an extended downtrend period, losing over $40,000 of its value to drop below $90,000. During this time, sentiment and market participation have understandably been negative, with investors pulling back from the cryptocurrency. However, with the year drawing to an end, a crypto analyst has explained what is expected for Bitcoin next, and why investors aren’t ready for what’s coming. Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Gearing Up For A Big Move Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Waterman took to X to outline the reasons why they believe that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a breakout. While many believe that the top is in, Waterman argues the opposite, using the trends from previous cycle tops to show why the Bitcoin price is yet to top. Related Reading: Can XRP Price Reach $10,000? Expert Says It’s Different Math, Different League For one, the analyst argues that pullbacks like these are part of each cycle, and the previous cycles were no different. But other than the pullback, there is also the gold and silver trend, with both having hit all-time highs in December 2025, while Bitcoin has continued to struggle. Waterman explained that in previous cycles, both gold and silver hit new all-time highs before the Bitcoin price followed later. As such, with both of these assets already hitting new peaks, the crypto analyst believes that leaving Bitcoin to buy gold and silver isn’t a smart choice. Additionally, one of the major markers of a Bitcoin cycle top has been the performance of the Coinbase app on the App Store. In past cycles, Coinbase had risen to number 1 before Bitcoin peaked. Meanwhile, it only reached Number 280 in October when BTC made its $126,000 all-time high. Thus, it suggests that this isn’t the top. Why This Is Not The Top Other factors are also mentioned as to why this is not the top for the Bitcoin price, one of which is the altcoin market performance. Altcoins have continued to struggle during this time, with major alts being down between 60% and 80% from their all-time highs and no sign of an altcoin season in sight. Related Reading: Investment Firm CEO Drops Utility Bomb On XRP, Is Community Hype A Detriment? The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also did not cross the 90 mark this cycle, suggesting that euphoria did not reach its peak, as well as the MVRV Z-Score remaining below 3, when the trend is for the Z-Score to reach above 6 before it tops. Given this, the crypto analyst suggests that a number of things will happen. Investors who exited the market back in early 2025 are expected to move back in. Then, those who left in 2024 will follow, and then the 2021-2022 investor cohort will return. Finally, new retail investors join the market, which will be the signal to exit the market. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a consolidated trading range between $86,000 and $90,000 after experiencing a 30% correction from its all-time high in October, market expectations for the cryptocurrency’s future remain optimistic.  Market analyst Dominic Basulto from The Motley Fool believes that despite the persistent challenges seen in the fourth quarter of the year, Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 by 2026, fueled by the newly established US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Is $150,000 Possible For Bitcoin?  Historical context supports Basulto’s prediction; Bitcoin’s performance over the years has shown significant recovery potential, with 2015 marking its worst bull market year at just a 36% gain. Significantly, in seven of its years, Bitcoin has achieved triple-digit percentage returns. The analyst suggests that 2026 may resemble 2019, a year when Bitcoin appreciated by 95% following the dismal performance in 2018, when it plummeted by 74%. Related Reading: XRP Supply Shock Incoming? Expert Reveals The Truth In 2019, several catalysts, such as heightened global economic uncertainty and a surge in institutional interest, propelled Bitcoin upwards—situations that appear similar to current conditions.  Institutional investors are increasingly adding BTC to their portfolios, driven by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Meanwhile, concerns over global tariffs and macroeconomic instability in the US continue to resonate among investors, setting the stage for potential bullish movement. However, Basulto emphasizes that Bitcoin can only reach the $150,000 milestone if it is perceived as a long-term store of value. If investors view it merely as another high-risk asset, they may choose to favor physical gold over digital gold, which has seen a record-breaking year.  The crux of his argument centers on one pivotal factor that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price: a notable increase in purchases by the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.  What Happens If Nations Stockpile BTC? Basulto claims that if the US government were to start buying substantial quantities of Bitcoin, it could trigger a global arms race among other countries keen to create their own strategic BTC reserves.  According to the analyst, such purchases from national reserves could dramatically inflate Bitcoin’s price, likely surpassing the impact of corporate treasury companies that have already amassed close to 5% of the world’s circulating BTC supply. Related Reading: Investment Firm CEO Drops Utility Bomb On XRP, Is Community Hype A Detriment? Although reaching the $150,000 mark may seem ambitious given Bitcoin’s recent performance, more aggressive predictions exist for 2026. For instance, JPMorgan Chase has forecasted a potential price of $170,000, while Wall Street strategist Tom Lee from Fundstrat has suggested that BTC might even hit $250,000 next year. While a variety of factors must align for BTC to reclaim its status as digital gold, the possibility of elevated prices hinges on strategic actions by both the US government and institutional investors.  Basulto concluded that if the leading cryptocurrency can consolidate its position and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gains traction, the predicted price of $150,000 could be achieved by next year. At the time of writing, BTC’s price retraced towards $87,330 following an early Monday move above $90,500.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Renowned Bitcoin advocate and El Salvador presidential advisor Max Keiser has once again reiterated his ultra-bullish outlook for BTC in 2025, doubling down on predictions that highlight the cryptocurrency’s role as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability. As the traditional financial systems face increasing pressure, Keiser maintains that BTC’s fixed supply and expanding market infrastructure position it for significant upside in the year ahead. How Macro Debt And Inflation Risks Strengthen Bitcoin’s Case According to a recent post from Crypto Miners on X, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser has once again reiterated his long-standing BTC thesis from 2025. Keiser points to total US debt surpassing $36 trillion and annual interest expenses approaching $1 trillion, claiming that this environment could push BTC beyond $2 million as capital seeks protection from fiat debasement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Forecast: Top Expert Predicts $40,000 Target Next Year, Here’s The Analysis The argument remains consistent with Keiser’s long-standing BTC maximalist stance, which links rising sovereign US debt expansion and currency dilution to upward pressure on a fixed supply asset. Replies are split, and supporters point to a 21 million supply against the unlimited debt. Thus, critics remain unconvinced, noting that BTC continues to trade below the $100,000 level despite similar high-conviction predictions made throughout 2025. Market commentator The Penguin updated that Bitcoin’s lower timeframe (LTF) structure is still looking a bit less impulsive, but nothing meaningful has changed in the count. Instead, BTC remains comfortable treating the current formation as a leading diagonal for wave 1, with recent LTF fluctuations resembling short-term noise rather than a decisive shift in trend. The Penguin pointed out that by setting Elliott Wave analysis aside and focusing on standard technical analysis, BTC continues to respect a well-defined range. This behavior is seen as consistent with the fact that Sunday trading and volume are light. From a trading perspective, the analyst’s focus is on longs and monitoring a possible shallow deviation toward the 0.886 retracement level marked on the chart. On the bullish side, the confirmation would be acceptance back above the $90,500 level, which would invalidate the bearish idea. Overall, the directional bias remains the same as the low-vol LTF chop is ahead of the yearly open. The Penguin added that the broader structure still looks solid and should hold up, while also noting signs of relative strength in assets such as XPL. Why Momentum Will Decide The Next Major Move Bitcoin high-timeframe (HTF) price action and momentum are currently navigating a structural pattern that mirrors a historical turning point. Crypto investor and trader known as Titan of Crypto has highlighted that BTC is showing a sequence similar to Q2 2021 and Q1 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recent Dips Reveal Market Structure Issue Not Coming From Selling Pressure While the structure price behavior remains comparable on the HTF charts, momentum indicators are showing signs of weakening. As a result, the next trend will depend on whether momentum can re-accelerate or confirm trend exhaustion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is heading into New Year’s Eve on the verge of printing a red yearly candle, an awkward setup after a year packed with pro-crypto policy and institutional headlines. Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said BTC is down 6.3% year-to-date and 8.25% year-over-year, and would need a daily close above $93,389 on New Year’s Eve to finish 2025 positive. The late-year mood has been defined by a soft Q4 tape and a deeper drawdown than many bulls expected this late in the cycle. Thorn noted BTC traded as low as roughly 36% below its Oct. 6, 2025 all-time high of $125,296, even as a steady stream of bullish headlines landed throughout the year. “Despite the tepid finish, 2025 was a banner year for Bitcoin. Even Bitcoin’s staunchest supporters wouldn’t have believed some of 2025’s headlines just a few years ago… 2025 has been filled with dozens of positive headlines for Bitcoin that in the past would have sparked euphoria. Today, these victories feel like par for the course. Maybe we really are ‘tired of winning?’” Thorn wrote in Galaxy’s weekly research note. Bitcoin On Verge Of Red Yearly Candle Thorn argued that part of the market’s stalled feel is mechanical, not philosophical. He pointed to a large month-end options expiry as a potential catalyst for loosening the range-bound behavior he described between the mid-$80,000s and $90,000. Related Reading: Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level “A significant options expiry at the end of the month clear some of the outstanding dealer gamma that has encouraged bitcoin to stay pinned between major $85k and $90k, and January may prompt some portfolio managers to take a fresh look at the world’s oldest cryptocurrency. There are reasons why the quiet period we’ve seen for the last month will not persist in the near term.” He also cited headwinds that hit spot demand and risk appetite: “significant whale distribution,” an Oct. 10 leverage wipeout, and competition from other macro trades such as AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the “Mag 7.” One of Thorn’s key observations was the divergence between bitcoin’s drawdown and US bitcoin ETF behavior. He said US bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows are down only 9% from their October peak of $62 billion, even though bitcoin fell sharply from its highs and, in his estimate, 60% of ETF inflows are underwater at current prices. That resilience, he argued, makes the source of selling more notable. “So, who has been selling?” Thorn wrote. “The call is coming from inside the house.” Since July 2025, he said coins held by long-term holders have declined more sharply than at any point in the eight years since the 2017 bull run, suggesting older on-chain holders have been net sellers into newer brokerage-led demand. Thorn framed that distribution as painful in the short run but constructive for the asset’s long-run maturity, lifting the average cost basis and broadening ownership. He highlighted bitcoin’s realized market cap above $1.1 trillion and a realized price above $56,000 as evidence of the network’s rising aggregate principal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 13 Days On Christmas In a Dec. 21 post summarizing Galaxy’s 2026 outlook, Thorn said Galaxy predicts bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end 2027, while calling 2026 “too chaotic to predict.” Options markets, he noted, are currently pricing roughly equal odds of $70,000 or $130,000 by end-June 2026, and $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting unusually wide uncertainty bands. He also pointed to a structural decline in longer-term volatility and a changed skew: the BTC vol smile now prices puts as more expensive than calls, which he described as a shift toward patterns more typical of macro assets than high-growth markets. Looking into 2026, Thorn’s near-term marker is whether BTC can “firmly re-establish” itself above $100,000–$105,000. Over the longer run, he argued the bigger story is demand for non-dollar hedges—and how little incremental allocation might be needed to move the market. “We believe it is likely only a matter of time before ‘Bitcoin follows gold to become widely adopted as a monetary debasement hedge.’ It doesn’t take much to start a stampede in that direction – a few major allocators, central banks, or nation states might be all it takes to spark the fuse and light a fire.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,748. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com