THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

The Bitcoin price resumed its hot start to the new year this week, jumping above the $97,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. The flagship cryptocurrency reignited debates about the current phase of the market in its latest attempt to reclaim its six-figure valuation. Having surpassed the previously formidable $94,000 technical level, the Bitcoin price seemed set to cross the $100,000 mark again. However, recent on-chain evaluation has brought focus on an ongoing phenomenon among a specific set of investors in the market. Bitcoin Price Action Could Hinge On STH Realized Price In a January 16 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that the average realized price of the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is another key level to watch. This price level represents the average price where the most recent (1-3 months) set of BTC investors acquired their coins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees ‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead According to data highlighted by Darkfost, this STH realized price currently sits at around $102,000, meaning that the majority of the Bitcoin short-term investors are at a loss. The market pundit noted that this particular evaluation is adjusted to account for the 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase. Darkfost noted that, as the Bitcoin price approached the realized price of the short-term holders, the investors are caught between two primary choices. It is either this group of investors holds and hopes for further upside, or they exit once they break even. Given that they are the most reactive set of investors, the Bitcoin short-term holders have not hesitated in taking short-term profits, as indicated by the latest exchange inflows. Darkfost, however, noted that the STH realized price level will be crucial to watch once all the profit-taking is done. Darkfost said that the Bitcoin price trading below this cost basis historically represents a good accumulation opportunity. Nevertheless, the analyst warned that bear market periods should be excluded, as short-term holders tend to witness prolonged drawdowns and pain during this season. STH Cost Basis Key For Momentum To Re-Accelerate Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish agreed in a recent post on X that the STH average realized price is a key inflection point. According to the market pundit, the Bitcoin price reclaiming this cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit. Beamish stated that reclaiming the STH realized price would be necessary for bullish momentum to re-accelerate, while failure to do so would keep the BTC market in recovery mode. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around at $95,300, reflecting no significant change in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin may be replaying a market structure that historically preceded one of its most powerful rallies. A high-timeframe trader has identified a fractal that closely mirrored Bitcoin’s behavior ahead of the 2021 bull run. He argues that the current cycle is unfolding in line with a well-established structural script observed across multiple market cycles spanning more than a decade. Bitcoin’s Fractal: Rooted In High-Timeframe Structure The fractal highlighted by the trader is based on a direct structural comparison between Bitcoin’s current cycle and the 2021 setup, illustrated in a chart he attached to his analysis. The chart aligns both periods to show how price advanced into a broad distribution range, rolled over into a sharp corrective phase, and then attempted to recover while capped by descending resistance. In both cases, Bitcoin retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level before stabilizing, marking a shared technical inflection point rather than a coincidental price overlap. Related Reading: XRP Price Is Approaching A Key Decision Zone, But Structure Is Still Firmly Bullish This structural symmetry extends beyond price levels into timing. According to the trader, the current cycle has tracked the rhythm of prior four-year cycles with notable consistency, allowing historical all-time highs and lows to be mapped objectively. Using that same framework, the data previously supported a high-probability short near the peak candle around $123,000, reinforcing his view that recurring market structure continues to guide directional risk. By comparing the two cycles directly, the trader argues that Bitcoin’s behavior is being evaluated through a recurring structural pattern that has remained intact for more than 12 years, rather than through subjective bias. $100,000 As A Structural And Psychological Ceiling Within the identified fractal, psychological resistance is a key determinant of Bitcoin’s upside potential. Looking back at 2021, Bitcoin failed to decisively reclaim the $50,000 level and instead front-ran it before reversing, establishing a behavioral precedent for how traders respond to significant round-number thresholds. Applying this pattern to the current cycle, $100,000 now functions as the analogous psychological ceiling. As a result, some participants may act preemptively, which could generate selling pressure from underwater holders and distribution by larger players. Related Reading: Pundit Reveals The Biggest Enemy Of XRP Investors As Price Struggles At $2 This potential resistance is reinforced by diagonal trendlines that mirror the caps observed in 2021, creating a structural limit on upside momentum. Within this context, short-term extensions into the $98,000–$99,000 range remain plausible and are fully compatible with the fractal, as price can approach the psychological ceiling. Moreover, positioning data from the past six to eight months indicates that the median short-term buyer cost basis has clustered between $95,000 and $100,000, highlighting zones where profit-taking and defensive selling are likely to intensify. These elements suggest a scenario where price may test resistance, experience temporary stalls, and respect structural limits without invalidating the broader high-timeframe thesis. However, the trader notes that the framework is probabilistic: only a sustained move above $104,000–$105,000 would break the fractal pattern and necessitate a full reassessment of the high-timeframe trend. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Recent allegations regarding the Bitcoin (BTC) sale by the US Marshal Service (USMS) — operating under the Department of Justice (DOJ) — have been addressed by White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, who confirmed that the digital assets forfeited by Samourai Wallet and its founders have not been liquidated. DOJ Confirms Samourai Bitcoin Will Not Be Sold In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Witt clarified that the DOJ has verified that the digital assets taken from the Samourai Wallet will not be sold, in accordance with Executive Order 14233. He emphasized that these assets will remain on the government’s balance sheet as part of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto ETFs Set To Attract $130 Billion-Plus Inflows This Year, JPMorgan Predicts Earlier in the month, speculations suggested that the USMS, following directives from the DOJ, had sold approximately 57.55 Bitcoin forfeited in the Samourai Wallet case through Coinbase Prime on November 3, 2025.  The lack of confirmation until now had led experts to assert that such actions would violate EO 14233, signed by President Donald Trump. This order mandates that Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil forfeiture be retained and added to the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, rather than being sold off. The Bitcoin in question is valued at almost $6.4 million and was seized from the creators of Samourai Wallet. According to US authorities, the cryptocurrency mixer facilitated over $237 million worth of illicit transactions.  Samourai Wallet’s Co-Founders Face Justice The DOJ had announced in November the sentencing of Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, the co-founders of Samourai Wallet.  Rodriguez, the company’s CEO, and Hill, its Chief Technology Officer, were implicated in a conspiracy involving the operation of a money transmitting business that “knowingly” transmitted proceeds from criminal activities.  Related Reading: XRP Will Skyrocket Beyond $18: Analyst Suggests 800% Growth Potential In 2026 The criminal proceeds laundered through their platform originated from various illegal activities, including drug trafficking, darknet marketplace operations, cyber intrusions, fraud, murder-for-hire schemes, and even a child pornography website. Rodriguez received a five-year prison sentence, while Hill was sentenced to four years. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,300, marking an almost 6% increase over the past seven days. However, it is still unable to regain the key $100,000 level, which has eluded the cryptocurrency since November last year.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target.  Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000.  Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week.  The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers.  Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more.   Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested.  More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Cathie Wood is arguing that the next phase of US policy and macro could recreate an early-1980s style risk-on regime, one that, in her telling, strengthens the case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier even as it complicates the “digital gold” narrative. In a post on X, the ARK Invest CEO said “the next three years could be Reaganomics on steroids,” pointing to deregulation, tax cuts, “sound monetary policy,” and “peace through strength” as ingredients for a stronger dollar and capped gold prices. Her January 15 “New Year letter,” titled Cathie Wood’s 2026 Outlook: The US Economy Is A Coiled Spring, lays out the mechanics behind that analogy and places crypto explicitly inside the policy and productivity story. A “Coiled Spring” Macro Thesis Wood’s central claim is that the US has looked sturdier than it really is because weakness has rotated through rate-sensitive pockets rather than hitting the whole economy at once. “Despite sustained real gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the past three years, the underlying US economy has suffered a rolling recession and has evolved into a coiled spring that could bounce back powerfully during the next few years. In response to COVID-related supply shocks, the record-breaking 22-fold surge in the Fed funds rate from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5.5% in the sixteen months ended July 2023 pushed housing, manufacturing, non-AI capital spending, and low-to-middle income America into recession.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says She anchors the housing leg with a specific trough: existing home sales fell 40% from a 5.9 million annual rate in January 2021 to 3.5 million in October 2023, which she notes is “a level last seen in November 2010.” From there, Wood pivots to policy impulse and cash-flow relief. “Thanks to the confluence of deregulation and lower taxes (including tariffs), inflation, and interest rates, the rolling recession which has characterized the last few years in the US could turn quickly and sharply during the next year and beyond. Deregulation is unleashing innovation in every sector, led by the first AI and Crypto Czar, David Sacks, in the AI and digital assets space. Meanwhile, lower taxes on tips, overtime, and social security should hand US consumers significant refunds this quarter, potentially driving real disposable income growth up from ~2% at an annual rate during the second half of 2025 to ~8.3% this quarter.” She also argues corporate cash flows could be boosted by accelerated depreciation, writing that it could push the effective corporate tax rate “down toward 10%,” with 100% first-year depreciation for equipment, software and domestic R&D made permanent and retroactive to January 1, 2025. Gold, Bitcoin, And The Dollar Wood’s inflation case is concrete and component-driven. She points to oil falling from about $124 on March 8, 2022 to a level that’s roughly 53% lower, and down about 22% year-over-year as of ARK’s January 12 data cut. She adds that single-family home sale prices are down about 15% from the October 2022 peak, while existing home price inflation (three-month moving average) decelerated from roughly 24% YoY in June 2021 to about 1.3%. On labor, she cites non-farm productivity up 1.9% YoY (third quarter), compensation per man-hour up 3.2%, and unit labor cost inflation at 1.2%. She then pushes a real-time check: Truflation at 1.7% YoY as of January 7, nearly 100 bps below CPI-based inflation. The crypto hook comes through her attempt to split gold’s recent run from bitcoin’s role in portfolios. “During 2025, the gold price appreciated 65% as the price of bitcoin slipped 6%. While many observers have attributed the 166% surge in the gold price from $1,600 to $4,300 since the end of the US equity bear market in October 2022 to the risk of inflation, another interpretation is that global wealth creation… has outpaced the ~1.8% annualized increase in the gold supply globally.” Related Reading: Glassnode: Bitcoin Is Back At $96K, Hitting The Same Sell Ceiling Again Wood then leans on supply schedules and correlations. She notes bitcoin’s supply is “mathematically metered” to rise about 0.82% per year for the next two years before slowing to ~0.41%, and argues that diversification — not “digital gold” rhetoric — is the cleaner allocator lens. In ARK’s correlation matrix using weekly returns from 1/1/2020 through 1/6/2026, bitcoin’s correlation is 0.14 to gold, 0.06 to bonds, and 0.28 to the S&P 500; the S&P 500–bonds correlation is shown at 0.27. Finally, she brings it back to FX: after a year in which the trade-weighted dollar (DXY) fell 11% in the first half and 9% for the full year, Wood argues that higher US returns on invested capital, driven by fiscal, deregulation, and US-led technological breakthroughs, could push the dollar higher, echoing the early Reagan period when “the dollar nearly doubled.” If Wood’s “Reaganomics on steroids” framing gains traction, the near-term market implication is less about a single bitcoin price target and more about positioning: a regime she expects to feature falling inflation, lower rates, and heavy AI capex (data-center systems investment up 47% to nearly $500 billion in 2025, with a further 20% to roughly $600 billion expected in 2026) is one where allocators may revisit where bitcoin sits on the risk spectrum, and whether its low cross-asset correlation is the more durable thesis than any one-line comparison to gold. While Wood’s 2026 outlook does not publish a specific Bitcoin price target, ARK has previously outlined 2030 scenarios for BTC of roughly $300,000 (bear), $710,000 (base), and $1.2 million (bull). At press time, BTC traded at $95,685. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is starting to emerge from its consolidation phase, suggesting that a decisive move may be underway. After holding above the former resistance, the market is starting to show early signs of confidence returning. The spotlight now shifts to the $107,000 level, where the strength of this breakout will be truly tested. Holds Firm Despite A Weak Start To The Session Bitcoin Meraklsi, in a recent BTC market update, outlined a largely positive outlook despite the day beginning with some downside pressure. While early trading showed red across the board, the analyst emphasized that the broader structure remains healthy, with Bitcoin still trading comfortably above the $96,000 region. Related Reading: BTC Breaks Higher as Record Bitcoin ETF Inflows Trigger Wave of Bearish Liquidations A major technical development highlighted in the update is Bitcoin’s breakout above the long-watched $94,800 resistance level, which previously capped upside moves, and is now acting as support. So far, price action suggests that buyers are stepping in on pullbacks, reinforcing the strength of this level and reducing the risk of an immediate reversal. As long as BTC continues to hold above $94,800, the bullish roadmap remains unchanged. The next clear upside target sits at $107,300, a level that could mark the next phase of expansion if momentum continues to build.  The analyst also addressed why altcoins have yet to respond meaningfully to Bitcoin’s strength. In the view, the wider market is still waiting for confirmation and confidence from BTC itself. That confidence is more likely to emerge once Bitcoin reaches the $107,300 region. At that point, improved sentiment and risk appetite could spill over into altcoins, setting the stage for a stronger, more synchronized market move. Bitcoin Tests The Upper Boundary Of A Long-Standing Range According to Crypto Candy, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning out of a prolonged consolidation phase after spending considerable time moving sideways. At the time of the post, price was challenging the upper boundary of the $94,000–$96,000 range, signaling a potential shift in market momentum as buyers attempt to regain control. Related Reading: Wall Street Analyst Is Still Bullish On Bitcoin, Predicts Price Recovery BTC is now trading above it, but it must continue to hold above the range, which serves as a crucial validation zone. Sustained strength above this area would confirm bullish intent and increase the probability of a continued advance, with the $107,000 region standing out as the next major upside objective in the weeks ahead. However, the setup is not without risk. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its position above $94,000, the current move could quickly lose traction and be labeled a false breakout. Such a development invites renewed selling pressure, potentially dragging the price back toward lower support zones as the market reassesses direction. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The recent Bitcoin rally may be driven by real spot demand on Coinbase. Data indicating elevated spot activity on Coinbase suggests that this move higher is bolstered by direct purchases rather than leveraged positioning in derivatives markets. This distinction matters because Spot buying reflects a real capital commitment, not a temporary bet. Why Risk Management When Demand Is Structural The Bitcoin rally since Sunday’s Powell subpoena news has been largely linked to Coinbase spot buyers. Crypto trader Alex Krüger has highlighted on X that both the Adjusted Coinbase Premium and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) show steady spot accumulation, which is exactly why this has been a true hated rally even among bitcoiners. For over a month, the dominant narrative in every crypto chat room has been that BTC is lagging while equities and commodities are moving upward. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know However, the fun fact is that equities are not accurate, but 40% of the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor’s 500) stocks have actually closed red in 2025, (39.2% to be precise). Perception is doing a lot of work here, and the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) move on Powell represented a major macro litmus test for BTC. Kruger claims that the BTC long-term value proposition is about protecting against the tail risk of central bank profligacy.  On Monday, BTC surged upward, although the move was just a little surge. According to Krüger, the BTC key battlefield remains the 50-week moving average (WMA), which is currently around $101,420. Meanwhile, the trader is looking to take some profits into short liquidations right above the $100,000 mark. Why Bitcoin Benefits First From Institutional Flows The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set for markup today, January 15th, 2026, in the Senate Banking Committee. According to the update by BTC_road_to200k on X (Formally Twitter), this is where the lawmakers will debate and shape the final version of the bill before it moves forward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Stays Pinned Above Support, Setting Up a Bigger Move This matters because the art aims to clear up the ongoing regulatory uncertainty between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has been a major source of hesitation for large institutional players looking to move into Bitcoin and other digital assets. Furthermore, the Clarity Act will be a turning point as it aims to clear rules that will bring more confidence to banks, pension funds, and large investors, which often translates into higher demand and stronger price momentum for BTC. As the regulatory clouds lift, the market might start experiencing a renewed wave of institutional money flowing in, and that’s obviously bullish for BTC. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s early-2026 bounce has pushed back into a familiar problem area: a dense pocket of overhead supply that Glassnode says has repeatedly capped rallies since November. In its latest Week On-chain report, the analytics firm frames the move above $96,000 as constructive on the surface, but still largely dependent on derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions rather than persistent spot accumulation. Glassnode’s central argument is that Bitcoin has rallied straight into a historically significant band of long-term holder (LTH) cost basis, built during April to July 2025 and associated with sustained distribution near cycle highs. The report describes a “dense cluster” spanning roughly $93K to $110K, with rebounds since November repeatedly stalling near the lower boundary. “This region has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes,” Glassnode wrote. “With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.” The firm’s framing is blunt: the market is back at the same sell ceiling, and clearing it requires real absorption, not just price probing. The next level the report highlights is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $98.3K, which it treats as a confidence gauge for newer buyers. Sustained trading above it would indicate that recent demand is strong enough to keep late entrants in profit while soaking up overhead supply. On-chain, Glassnode notes long-term holders remain net sellers, with total LTH supply still trending lower. The key change is speed. The report says the rate of decline has “slowed materially” versus the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting profit-taking is continuing but with less intensity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Turns ‘Neutral’ For First Time Since October “What follows will depend primarily on the demand side’s ability to absorb this supply, particularly from investors accumulated over Q2 2025,” the report said. “Failure to hold above the True Market Mean at ~$81k, in the long term, would significantly increase the risk of a deeper capitulation phase, reminiscent of the April 2022 to April 2023 period.” It is one of the clearest downside conditionals in the note: if the market loses the long-run mean, the probability distribution shifts toward a more severe unwind. A related signal is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, which Glassnode says reflects a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Long-term holders are realizing roughly 12.8K BTC per week in net profit, a sharp slowdown from cycle peaks above 100K BTC per week. That moderation does not imply capitulation risk is gone, but it does suggest the heaviest phase of profit-taking has eased. Bitcoin Demand Remains Uneven Off-chain indicators lean more constructive. Glassnode argues institutional balance-sheet flows have “gone through a full reset” after months of heavy outflows across spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, with net flows stabilizing as sell-side pressure appears exhausted. Spot ETFs are described as the first cohort to turn positive again, re-establishing themselves as the primary marginal buyer. Corporate and sovereign treasury flows, by contrast, are portrayed as sporadic and event-driven rather than consistent. The upshot is a market where balance-sheet demand can help stabilize price, but may not yet function as a sustained growth engine, leaving short-term direction more sensitive to derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions. At the venue level, Glassnode points to improving spot behavior. Binance and aggregate exchange flow measures have shifted back into buy-dominant regimes, and Coinbase, described as a consistent source of sell-side aggression during the consolidation, has “meaningfully slowed its selling activity.” The report calls this a constructive structural shift, while stressing it still falls short of the persistent, aggressive accumulation typically associated with full trend expansions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Flush 31% Of Open Interest As Bottom Thesis Takes Shape The most pointed caution in the report is that the move into the $96K region was “mechanically reinforced” by short liquidations in a relatively thin liquidity environment. Futures turnover remains well below the elevated activity seen across most of 2025, implying it took comparatively little capital to force shorts out and push price through resistance. “This indicates that the breakout occurred in a comparatively light liquidity environment, where modest positioning shifts were able to drive disproportionately large price responses,” Glassnode said. “In practical terms, it did not take significant new capital to force shorts out of the market and lift price through resistance.” The implication is that continuation now depends on whether spot demand and sustained volume can replace forced covering once the squeeze impulse fades. Options markets add a second layer of tension. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low but “deferred,” while skew continues to price downside asymmetry, with 25-delta skew biased toward puts in mid and longer maturities. In short: participants appear comfortable holding exposure, but remain unwilling to do so without insurance. Positioning also matters at the microstructure level. The report flags dealers as short gamma around spot, with a zone roughly from $94K to $104K. In that setup, hedging flows can amplify moves rather than dampen them, buying into rallies and selling into dips, raising the odds of faster travel toward high-interest strikes such as $100K if momentum takes hold. At press time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of a reset after a speculative 2025, with Binance open interest falling more than 31% from an October peak as futures-led selling pressure cools, a combination CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues often coincides with meaningful cycle lows. In a series of posts on X, Darkfost said 2025’s leverage build-up was fueled by record activity on Binance, where futures trading volumes “exceeded $25T,” helping push Bitcoin open interest (OI) to an all-time high “of over $15B on October 6.” “To put this into perspective, during the previous bull cycle in November 2021, when Bitcoin hit its ATH, open interest on Binance peaked at $5.7B,” Darkfost wrote. “In other words, OI nearly tripled in 2025. Since that peak, open interest has dropped by more than 31%, stabilizing today around $10B.” Darkfost framed the move as a deleveraging phase that intensified amid “massive liquidations,” with OI slipping below its 180-day moving average, a condition the analyst says has historically mattered more than the raw level of leverage. “These deleveraging periods are crucial, as they help purge the excess leverage built up in the market,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, they have often marked significant bottoms, effectively resetting the market and creating a stronger base for a potential bullish recovery.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Entering A Supercycle, Fidelity Warns The logic is straightforward: when leverage is forced out, the market can become less vulnerable to cascade-style liquidations and reflexive selling. In that sense, a lower OI environment can reduce the marginal impact of futures positioning on spot, at least compared with the late-stage “crowded trade” conditions that precede sharp drawdowns. But Darkfost warned that a deleveraging signal is not the same thing as a confirmed bottom. “This could be the case again, but caution is warranted,” the analyst wrote, adding that if Bitcoin “continues to slide and fully enters a bear market,” OI could “contract further,” pointing to “deeper deleveraging and a potential extension of the correction.” Bitcoin Sellers Are Losing Momentum Alongside the open interest reset, Darkfost pointed to a sharp drop in futures-driven selling pressure, using Net Taker Volume — a measure intended to capture who is dominating futures order books. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline “Selling pressure on BTC coming from the futures market is sharply declining,” Darkfost wrote, noting that after the monthly average hit “–$489M” at its peak, the figure has now been “divided by ten.” “At the moment, sellers still slightly dominate the order books, with –$51M,” the analyst added. The key nuance is that the indicator has not flipped, but it is moving in that direction. “We have not yet returned to positive territory, but we are getting closer,” Darkfost wrote. “It is very encouraging to see traders starting to change their approach, especially given the significant impact futures volumes have on price action. Notably, since this decline in selling pressure began, BTC price action has also stabilized.” For the “bottom thesis” to graduate into a more forceful reversal call, Darkfost anchored the trigger to that sign change: “If Net Taker Volume were to turn positive again, it would clearly ignite the fuse for a bullish reversal.” At press time, BTC traded at $95,131. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest recovery above $94,000 raises up the question of whether it is the next leg for the continuation of a bull cycle or the final rally before a deeper reset. However, an interesting technical outlook shared on TradingView by crypto analyst Xanrox suggests the bullish path many traders are watching could ultimately end lower than expected, even if price strength is strong in the near term. Elliott Wave Setup Leaves Room For One More Push Higher Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows the cryptocurrency has completed a five-impulse wave that goes as far back as early 2023. This impulse wave count ended with Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000 in October 2025 and the cryptocurrency is now playing out corrective waves ABC.  Related Reading: Next XRP Wave Shows Where Price Is Headed Next, But There’s A Catch Based on the Elliott Wave theory, Xanrox noted that Bitcoin may already have completed a sharp decline from a projected 2025 peak near $125,000 down to the low-$80,000 range, labeling that move as a corrective wave A. The price action is now viewed as being in a bullish counter-trend phase, commonly referred to as wave (B) or (X), which is known to retrace a portion of the prior decline before rolling over. In this scenario, Bitcoin could still advance to as high as the $100,000 to $103,000 range over the coming weeks or months and even encourage a brief rotation into altcoins during the advance. That upside, however, is corrective and not impulsive, and the next move is a larger move lower once the structure is complete. Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick. Source: TradingView Long-Term Structure Points To A Painful Reset Window Xanrox’s analysis places Bitcoin within a long-term linear structure stretching from 2017 into 2026, highlighting how previous market cycles ended with deep corrections after euphoric peaks. The analysis uses the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns, which erased more than three-quarters of Bitcoin’s value each time, as anchors for what could unfold next for the leading cryptocurrency.  Related Reading: Get Ready For An XRP Price Explosion Once This Happens; Analyst According to this framework, the next major corrective phase is projected to play out in 2026, when Bitcoin could fall into the sub-$60,000 region, with $57,000 as the most important area of interest where the correction might end. The $57,000 price correction target is based on the location of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement when projected from the recent 2025 peak and is going to be just above the 200-week moving average.  The projected move would still represent a correction of roughly 54% from the 2025 high if this actually turns out to be the cycle peak. However, it is important to note that the presence of Spot Bitcoin ETFs introduces a stabilizing force compared to earlier cycles in 2018 and 2022, and so any high correction might find a strong support level before falling as low as $57,000.    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price has shown strength over the past 48 hours and is now trading in the mid-$90,000s after days of consolidating around $90,000. Technical analyst Jackis presented a fair assessment of potential paths for Bitcoin’s next significant rise in the context of near-term consolidation and attempted breakouts above $95,000, outlining distinct scenarios for both bulls and bears. Both Outlooks Have A Case, But Price Has To Confirm Bitcoin is now back to trading above $95,000 after a 3.1% increase in the past 24 hours. Price action in the past 24 hours alone shows that the outlook might be bullish. However, as it stands, Bitcoin’s price action has reached a point where traders should let the chart tell them what’s next.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Is Not In At $126,000, According To The Business Cycle, Here’s Why According to a technical analysis from a crypto analyst known as Jackis on the social media platform X, arguments alone are not enough here because there are both good bullish & bearish arguments out there for Bitcoin. In his words, he has watched similar-looking price action resolve in opposite directions across different cycles.  The chart below shows how Bitcoin price action is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern on the 8-hour candlestick timeframe chart. However, examples show how this same formation led to an upward reversal for Bitcoin in the past and then also a bearish continuation for Ethereum in the past. Based on his read, he currently sees more reasons for downward continuation, and until the market proves otherwise, the active trend is bearish. Both bullish and bearish outlooks have a case, but price action has to confirm. Bullish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin Once price breaks out in either direction, the follow-through can be fast, which means being stubborn on the wrong side can be costly.  Related Reading: Why The $2.9 Billion Bitcoin Whale Buy Could Spell Doom For The Market On the bullish side, Jackis highlighted that a breakout toward $96,000 is the kind of move that would confirm a bullish continuation. He added that a push through $96,000 at this point could open the path to $107,000 or higher. On the other hand, Jackis’ bearish trigger is tied to the rising support line. Price action can look constructive right up until the trendline snaps, and that’s the point where downside continuation becomes the higher-probability route in this framework. If Bitcoin were to lose the lower trendline of the ascending trend, then it would likely drift back to the April 24 lows. The April lows refer to how Bitcoin rejected above $106,100 in January 2025 and entered into a multi-month correction that eventually bottomed at a low around $76,000.  This means that a clean breakdown could change the conversation away from range chop in the mid-$90,000s to a reset. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a notable surge, approaching its nearest resistance level at $94,000, a barrier that has thus far hindered the cryptocurrency’s return to significant milestones, including the coveted $100,000 mark. Despite this, experts remain optimistic about new all-time highs for Bitcoin within the year. Potential Bitcoin Return To $100,000 Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, commented on the recent price movements, suggesting that the uptick is more likely a reflexive response from investors who are rebalancing their portfolios after last year’s heavy sell-off, rather than an indication of a fundamental trend shift.  “The bounce in Bitcoin we’re seeing this week is most likely a reflexive move by investors rather than something indicative of a major shift in trend,” Puckrin explained. Related Reading: New Hope For Crypto: Senators Introduce Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act Currently, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum after rejecting the $94,700 resistance level. Puckrin warns that a failure to break through this barrier could lead to another decline in value. However, if BTC does breach this resistance, he believes a return to the $100,000 level may be achievable.  Looking further ahead, Puckrin anticipates another all-time high in 2026, although he advises caution regarding the extent of that potential rise. “In the longer term, I expect to see another all-time high this year, but it won’t be as dramatic as some are predicting, and the possibility of a reversal into bear territory remains very real,” he added. Key Resistance Level Contrasting this optimism, some analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin’s immediate prospects. Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of First Information, maintains a bearish outlook, arguing that the risk-reward ratio at current prices is unappealing.  Stanzione evaluates Bitcoin against gold rather than the dollar, asserting that Bitcoin has considerable ground to cover. “I was negative on Bitcoin throughout 2025, and I’m sticking with that view in 2026,” he noted.  He pointed out that while the market’s leading cryptocurrency experienced a decline of about 6% by the end of 2025, gold surged by 66%, resulting in a significant disparity in performance. Related Reading: Coinbase Mulls Exiting Support For Crypto Market Structure Bill Ahead Of January 15 Deadline Stanzione believes gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin this year, predicting that the digital asset will close the year at a lower price. “There are no compelling reasons to buy Bitcoin at the current $92,000 level,” he stated.  Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial price level for Bitcoin in the short term, stating on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that $94,555 is the “bullish trigger” for the cryptocurrency.  Should Bitcoin break through this level, Martinez indicated that the next target could be $105,291, representing a potential 12% increase. This move would significantly narrow the gap to the all-time high of over $126,000 reached last October. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market have experienced sharp price swings and declines since 2025. Because of this volatility, a crypto analyst has warned that the market correction could intensify further in 2026. In a detailed analysis, he outlines a bearish scenario for Bitcoin, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency could soon face another price crash amid persistent downward pressure in the broader stock market.  Analyst Warns Of Major Bitcoin And Stock Market Plunge Market analyst Doctor Profit has raised concerns about the direction of the crypto and traditional markets, warning that both Bitcoin and stocks are currently in a severe bear market. In a technical breakdown on X this Monday, the expert highlighted three major bearish setups forming simultaneously in Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Why The $2.9 Billion Bitcoin Whale Buy Could Spell Doom For The Market He highlighted a massive Bearish Divergence on the weekly and monthly charts, a clear bearish flag signaling a potential drop toward $70,000, and a possible Head and Shoulder pattern that could still play out. While he acknowledged that Bitcoin could still experience short-term price increases and briefly rise toward the $97,000-$107,000 range due to strong liquidity, he said that the ultimate target remains $70,000.  Doctor Profit emphasized that Bitcoin’s potential decline to $70,000 could go two ways. It could either break out of the bearish flag to that downside target or complete the Head and Shoulders pattern before reaching $70,000. He stated that he will not add new short positions at current prices but plans to increase them aggressively from $115,000 to $125,000 if Bitcoin moves into the $97,000 to $107,000 range.  The analyst painted a similarly grim picture for the stock market. He said he was “ultra-bearish” on both Bitcoin and the financial system. He also noted that the banks are stressed and that forced liquidations in precious metals like Silver are creating ripples across the broader market.  Additionally, Doctor Profit noted that insider activity shows clear signs of panic among investors, with record levels of selling since August 2025. Because of this, the analyst believes that the market is heading for a 2008-style crash. Consequently, he has concluded that the current market conditions are too extreme.   On the bright side, Doctor Profit said that although he maintains short positions on stocks and Bitcoin, he remains bullish on Gold and Silver. He explained that any upside to the $97,000-$107,000 range will prompt him to increase his short exposure and roll spot profits for BTC from $85,000 into these positions.  Crypto Markets Brace For Key US Decisions Toward the end of his analysis, Doctor Profit discussed upcoming events that could influence Bitcoin and the broader financial markets this week. He stated that the US CPI inflation forecast of 2.7% will be released this Tuesday. Other than this, the rest of the week is expected to have few market-moving events.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hits Crash Line, But This Time Is Not Random Doctor Profit has also highlighted January 15 as an important date because US lawmakers will vote on the CLARITY Act. He explained that if the bill passes, it will move closer to becoming law, setting clear rules and oversight for the crypto market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In an era marked by rising inflation, Bitcoin was framed as a radical experiment in digital cash. However, as the global economic landscape has shifted, the narrative around BTC has changed. It is now being discussed as a modern savings tool designed for a world where traditional savings are steadily losing their purchasing power. Normalisation Of Bitcoin As A Savings Asset A common framing of Bitcoin today is that it is a savings technology, digital gold, and something to hold, rather than use. According to Ben SAN’s post on X, that framing has become incomplete and ultimately wrong. This is because BTC is not meant to sit alongside fiat as another savings vehicle, but to replace fiat as a monetary base and a financial base that cannot be used or function as money. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Being Absorbed By Powerful Financial Players — What This Means However, for BTC to operate as a form of finance, it has to be usable at scale. That usability at scale implies execution, settlement abstraction, fast interactions, and cost-efficient transactions. BTC layer 1 is designed for finality and neutrality, not to satisfy these requirements, and it shouldn’t be. This is why BTC needs layer 2s to operate as money. “Once you accept that Bitcoin needs L2s to be usable as money, you stop asking whether alts are competing with Bitcoin and start asking whether they are serving Bitcoin,” the expert stated. If acceptance of altcoins is ever possible in the BTC-first community, it won’t come from alternative monetary assets. Instead, the acceptance of the altcoins will only come from systems that keep BTC as the unit of account and native asset, while extending its usability crucially without weakening its guarantees.  In these cases, auxiliary tokens may be introduced, but only where BTC is structurally incapable of performing the required coordination or incentive functions around expressiveness and yield. Furthermore, any non-BTC asset that has a legitimate chance of being accepted within the community will earn that legitimacy by filling those gaps in a way BTC itself cannot fulfill. History Shows What Happens After These Bitcoin Buys Crypto analyst Mattertrades highlighted that Bitcoin is trading above the weekly resistance, and the path is slow and clear. This setup is a result of Michael Saylor stepping in this week with his largest purchase since July, acquiring $1.5 billion worth of BTC. The last time he did this, BTC surged to $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Remains Weak: Setting The Stage For Long-Term Accumulation At the same time, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)-related news for Strategy was very bullish, and it actually attracted more buyers. Mattertrades concluded that this is how a bullish case quietly forms. If Saylor’s purchases bring in more buyers, reflexivity will begin because when he starts accumulating such large amounts again, other players will follow suit. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Fidelity Labs managing partner Parth Gargava says bitcoin may be transitioning away from its familiar, halving-linked four-year rhythm and into something closer to a “supercycle”, a regime that could keep prices elevated for longer and make drawdowns less severe, if structural demand continues to build. Speaking in Fidelity’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook for 2026 video, Gargava anchored the discussion in the cycle framework many market participants have used for years: peaks arriving roughly a year and a half after each halving. “Traditionally, what we have seen is Bitcoin has had this four-year cycle,” he said, adding that the pattern has been “highly correlated to Bitcoin’s halving events.” He pointed to the 2016 halving followed by a peak in December 2017 near $20,000, and the 2020 halving followed by another peak in 2021 about 18 months later. That history matters because it frames the debate around the most recent halving in April 2024. Gargava acknowledged the straightforward inference some investors make from prior cycles: “So maybe we are past that peak price.” But he positioned that view as only one side of the argument, highlighting a competing thesis that the market’s structure is evolving. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline “On the other side, you’re also seeing a lot of arguments around how we might have entered into a supercycle as opposed to what we have seen in the past four years,” Gargava said. “And what a super cycle really means is you might have more prolonged highs, longer highs, and shallower dips.” Gargava credited Fidelity Digital Assets’ research team for outlining what he called the “super cycle mechanism,” and suggested an analogy to the commodities market in the 2000s. The key point was not that bitcoin would mechanically copy commodities, but that a sustained, multi-year bid can alter how markets behave, extending expansions and compressing the depth of selloffs. JUST IN: $5 trillion Fidelity talks about how #Bitcoin might have entered a “supercycle” Bullish ???? pic.twitter.com/IUv3GVHwEW — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 12, 2026 Three Forces That Could Push Bitcoin Into A Supercycle He outlined three drivers he believes could underpin that kind of regime shift. First is “steady buy-in by institutions focused on ETFs,” which Gargava framed as persistent demand rather than episodic speculative bursts. In his telling, ETFs can function as a channel that keeps incremental capital flowing even when sentiment softens, potentially changing the market’s typical post-peak unwind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $92,000 As DOJ Subpoenas Escalate Trump-Powell Fight Second is policy. Gargava pointed to “pro-crypto policies” in the US as a supportive backdrop, implying that a friendlier regulatory stance could reduce headline risk and encourage broader participation from investors and intermediaries that previously stayed on the sidelines. Third is market maturation and changing correlations. “We’re also seeing how the crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and precious metals,” he said. The implication is that bitcoin’s trading behavior may be becoming less captive to traditional risk-asset moves and the simple “digital gold” narrative, an evolution that could matter for positioning, hedging, and macro sensitivity. Notably, Gargava did not claim the four-year cycle is definitively broken. Instead, he presented a live question for 2026: whether bitcoin continues to follow a post-halving path that culminates in a familiar, sharp boom-and-bust pattern, or whether structural forces: ETF-driven institutional demand, a more supportive US policy tone, and a maturing market profile support a longer, steadier expansion with “shallower dips.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,182. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Claims that a Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale suddenly returned to the market with a multi-billion-dollar purchase have injected tension into an already fragile Bitcoin price action. The claims gained traction after social media posts on X revealed that an address dormant since 2011 had accumulated roughly 26,900 BTC, a move framed by some as a powerful bullish signal.  However, a few others saw something very different. One warning revealed that the timing and context of the transfer pointed toward a setup that could lead to a large-scale distribution. Why Some Traders See A Major Red Flag Claims that a Satoshi-Era Bitcoin address might be actually buying billions of dollars’ worth of BTC took many investors by surprise. According to a crypto participant known as 0xNobler on the social media platform X, the whale address became active for the first time since 2011 and went all in on Bitcoin again. Such a purchase goes against the trend of Satoshi-era whales becoming active after many years to sell their holdings.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hits Crash Line, But This Time Is Not Random The claim of purchase is very bullish on the outside, but there are also bearish interpretations of the move. The bearish interpretation is based on market psychology and the historical behavior of early Bitcoin holders.  A wallet allegedly active since the Satoshi era would have acquired BTC at negligible prices, often well below $1. From that perspective, the idea that such an entity waited more than a decade only to buy aggressively near all-time highs appears illogical. A critic argued that sudden movements involving billions of dollars at the current price action indicate preparation. According to the critic, the entity behind the whale address is preparing to distribute. Large transfers into newly active wallets can be part of liquidity staging, designed to allow gradual distribution without causing immediate panic.  Satoshi-Era Whale Story Appears To Be A Misunderstanding Closer inspection of the on-chain data indicates that the dramatic narrative surrounding this event rests on questionable assumptions. A few other crypto market participants pointed out that the circulated image claiming a Satoshi-era whale went all in on Bitcoin is edited and misleading, and that the receiving address labeled ‘3FsDiW’ may not belong to an early individual holder at all. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Interestingly, blockchain trackers link the address to Twenty One Capital, with records showing that it was created only a few days ago and the first transaction was first received on January 10, 2026. Transaction history shows a small test transfer of 1 BTC to Bitfinex, after which the remaining funds were consolidated into the new address ‘3FsDiW’ from another wallet already associated with Twenty One Capital. Twenty One Capital is a publicly traded Bitcoin-focused company that reportedly holds more than 43,000 BTC on its balance sheet. This distinction matters, as it removes the existential fear implied by the original claims of a Bitcoin whale buying billions worth of Bitcoin. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin pushed above the $92,000 level late-Sunday as a legal escalation around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell became public. The catalyst was Powell’s decision to publicly address Department of Justice subpoenas and a criminal probe he characterized as political pressure tied to the administration’s rate preferences. In a video released Sunday evening, Powell directly addressed US President Donald Trump: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell responds after Federal prosecutors open a criminal investigation into him: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of… pic.twitter.com/y1dRdoQ1fm — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 12, 2026 Bitcoin Community Reacts To The News The Bitcoin and broader crypto market responded immediately with a decent push higher, while “metals [were] blasting to new highs,” as analyst Will Clemente wrote via X. Related Reading: CVDD Model Signals Bitcoin Is Not Yet Deeply Undervalued: Drawdown Lags Historical Cycles The timing matters for crypto traders: the Fed is heading into its January 28 meeting with the market increasingly primed for a pause in cuts, amplifying sensitivity to any perception that monetary policy is being pulled into partisan conflict. For Bitcoin-native observers, the episode read like a real-time stress test of institutional trust: one that flatters Bitcoin’s pitch. Clemente added via X: “This environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for. The President is coming after the Fed chair. Metals are ripping as sovereigns diversify reserves. Stocks & risk assets at record highs. Geopolitical risk rising.” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, put the contrast in monetary regimes front and center, arguing that Bitcoin’s “credibly neutral, predictable, transparent, and censorship resistant monetary policy looks pretty good here,” after flagging Powell’s view that the subpoenas are “pretexts” for administrative meddling in monetary policy. Related Reading: Cathie Wood: Trump May Buy Bitcoin For US Reserve Ahead Of Midterms Others used the moment to widen the indictment beyond any single personality. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park argued that “independence alone cannot be a virtue when the institution at its core is incompetent,” adding that “the age of Bitcoin is drawing nearer.” Walker, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice, framed it as a structural problem: “The problem isn’t President Trump or Jerome Powell. The problem is a centralized cabal of unelected banker-bureaucrats set the price of money and print it out of thin air.” Notably, the bullish reflex wasn’t rooted in sympathy for Powell. Strive CEO Matt Cole wrote he had “zero sympathy” for the Fed chair and accused the central bank of “gaslight[ing] the American people” on independence, concluding: “Bitcoin is even more underpriced than we realized…” Bitcoin’s move through $92,000 puts that narrative onto a price chart, but the same political-legal feedback loop that fuels the “neutral money” thesis can also intensify volatility. “For the first time ever, Fed Chair Powell is fighting back: Over the last 12 months, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent amid President Trump’s criticisms,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote via X, adding: “Today, that changed. […] Trump vs Powell will result in even more volatility.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,560. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin enters the weekend in a quiet, range-bound mode, with support around $90,500–$88,200 holding firm. While price action remains subdued for now, key resistance levels near $94,100–$107,500 will likely dictate the market’s next major move. Whether BTC resumes its upward trajectory or tests deeper support, the coming week could provide the confirmation the market has been waiting for. Expect Slower Bitcoin Market Moves According to Kamile Uray, the market has entered the weekend, a period typically characterized by slow and subdued price action. The key support region between $90,588 and $88,280 has not yet formed a clear bottom, but it continues to prevent a sharper decline. Related Reading: Three Key Levels For Bitcoin: Top Analysts Caution Against Potential Drop Below $70,000 On the upside, a daily close above the $94,130 resistance would signal that bullish momentum is resuming. If this level is cleared, the next key resistance to watch is in the $98,200–$107,500 range. The $107,500 mark is particularly significant, as a daily close above it would represent the first higher high relative to the last downward wave on the daily chart, potentially opening the door for further upward continuation. Should the market face deeper declines, there are multiple support zones to monitor: $86,398, $83,822, and $82,477. As long as BTC holds above $82,477, any pullbacks are likely to be considered retests of previous breakouts, keeping the broader bullish scenario intact. If BTC closes below $82,477, it could trigger a continuation of the downtrend, possibly testing the $74,496–$71,237 zone, which represents a strong support area. Once a clear reversal is confirmed from this region, an upward move targeting the downtrend line could follow, offering a potential opportunity for traders to re-enter the market. Weekend Choppiness Expected As Volume Remains Light In a more recent update by Lennaert Snyder on X, Bitcoin has entered its weekend liquidity phase. As usual, trading activity is expected to be muted due to weak weekend volume. Looking ahead to next week, Snyder noted that the best-case scenario would be a break above the monthly open in the next weekly candle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Absorbs The Flush: Quantum Structure Signals Wave (3) Toward $104,000 Snyder is monitoring key triggers for quality trades. Historically, Sunday “scam-pumps” have provided opportunities to execute short trades near liquidity zones. Currently, the $87,600 monthly open is viewed as the main target for potential downside. A diagonal line drawn on the chart highlights buy-side liquidity from shorts, which could be swept before a market structure break (MSB) forms, allowing shorts to be executed. If Bitcoin climbs above the current weekly high near $94,700, Snyder notes that the setup would simply wait for the next MSB to enter shorts again. Another key resistance to watch next week is around $96,500. A clean break above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis targeting the monthly open, signaling that upward momentum could dominate. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Following the recent bullish momentum seen early in the year, the Bitcoin price has displayed a bit of correctional movement and now stands closer to $90,000 than it did a week ago. While BTC’s most recent retracement raises suspicions of resistance lying at the $94,000 price, the latest on-chain evaluation hypothesizes the presence of a more relevant resistance just beneath $100,000. New Whales’ Cost Basis Sits Around $99k On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr recently took to the social media platform X to share an interesting hypothesis on the Bitcoin price trajectory. His on-chain observation was based on the Realized Price New Whale STH Vs Old Whale LTH indicator.  For context, this metric compares the acquisition cost, on average, of recently accumulated whale holdings (short-term holders) with that of Bitcoin’s long-term whale holdings.  Related Reading: Why Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Is The ‘Most Bullish Thing Ever’: Jeff Park Axel Adler Jr shared in his post that new whales have an average entry price near the $99,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin holds a valuation near $90,000, meaning its new whales are holding through unrealized losses. Hence, if the premier cryptocurrency ascends towards these whales’ average acquisition price of $99,000, the crypto pundit explained that these investors might become incentivized to sell their holdings. This means that these large BTC holders exit the market at break-even prices, or while incurring minimal losses.  When the largest Bitcoin investors sell their holdings, the effect often translates to price through reduced buying momentum and a simultaneous increase in downside pressure. As a result, the entry price of these investors — in this case, $99,000 — becomes major resistance, both psychologically and technically.  Long-Term Whales’ Average Cost At $39K  In a separate post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Arab Chain revealed the average cost basis across varying cohorts of Bitcoin’s investors. As the new whales hold through their unrealized losses, the Binance user deposit addresses metric tells a fascinating story. According to the analyst, the average holding cost on Binance is approximately $52,691, indicating that a good portion of Bitcoin’s traders are doing so while enjoying their profit. Interestingly, the Miner Whales are not left out of this comfort zone. This group of holders, who have more than 1,000 BTC stowed away, has an average holding cost of $58,681. Considering that price is well above their cost basis, it suggests that Bitcoin miners are also in deep profit. As a result, there will be expectedly minimal selling pressure from this faction of the market.  For Bitcoin’s Long-term Holder whales, the story is more rosy. These investors are holding their coins with an average acquisition cost of $39,681. As is intuitively obvious, this group of BTC holders is also operating within clear bounds of profit. Ultimately, it is clear that Bitcoin has a structurally bullish outlook, with unshaking investor support. If downside momentum were to enter the market, it would likely be short-term, as its oldest traders appear to be under no pressure to shave off their holdings. If retracements sponsored by these investors occur, it would likely be as a result of light profit-taking, rather than capitulation events. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $90,624, with no significant movement since the past day. Related Reading: Analyst Breaks Down Why Investors will Make More Money With XRP Than Bitcoin Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

According to a new technical analysis, the Bitcoin price has returned to its “Crash Line,” fueling talk of a possible bullish turnaround. The expert behind this analysis has suggested that this is not a random event, but a deliberate move that could signal the beginning of Bitcoin’s next upward move.  Bitcoin Price Revisits Familiar Crash Line In a recent post on X, market analyst Crypto Tice announced that Bitcoin has just hit the Crash Line, a level that has repeatedly acted as a critical reload point during the current bull cycle. The analyst indicated that this trendline has historically led to strong price rallies for BTC. He observed that throughout the bull market, Bitcoin has consistently followed the same sequence each time the price returns to the Crash Line.  Related Reading: Crypto Market Watches As Clarity Act Enters Senate Debate Next Week: US Senator The process begins with momentum overheating, meaning buyers push prices up too quickly, creating unsustainable upward pressure. As this momentum builds, excessive leverage accumulates in the market, followed by a sharp correction. This price decline often brings Bitcoin back to the Crash Line. From this point, BTC usually starts gearing up for its next expansion phase.  Crypto Tice shared a weekly chart illustrating this pattern. Each time Bitcoin approached the Crash Line, its price corrected by about 33.10% and 30.97% before quickly surging higher. Now that Bitcoin has returned to the Crash Line after a recent 33.38% drop, the analyst suggested it could follow the same historical trend and launch a major rally.  Crypto Tice also noted that the Crash Line has consistently marked leverage flushes, selling-pressure exhaustion, and trend continuation zones for Bitcoin. Rather than signaling structural weakness, the analyst said this trendline has acted as a transition point. He noted that if the broader structure remains intact, the Crash Line could mark the area where Bitcoin’s upside reloads.  Analyst Predicts Next Possible Moves For Bitcoin In a separate X post, market expert Crypto King said that Bitcoin is currently “stuck in a no trading zone,” meaning that the market still lacks a clear direction despite its recent rebound above $90,000. The analyst added that BTC’s liquidity and market participation are drying up, particularly as price moves sideways and the risk of getting caught in false moves increases. As a result, Crypto King has outlined two possible scenarios for Bitcoin. If the cryptocurrency can push above $92,000 and hold that level, he expects it to flip from resistance into support. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Peak Might Ignite ADA’s Rally, Says Cardano Creator On the other hand, if price fails to reclaim $92,000, the analyst predicts Bitcoin could decline again, this time testing the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap at $88,000. The analyst has highlighted two potential demand zones on the chart: one around the CME gap and another extending lower between $60,000 and $50,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Crypto expert Plan C has alluded to the business cycle to explain why the Bitcoin top isn’t in despite the flagship crypto’s run to $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, having lost most of its gains from the start of the year.  Why The Bitcoin Top Isn’t In Yet Based On The Business Cycle In an X post, Plan C suggested that it doesn’t make sense to call the Bitcoin top when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the bull market peak hasn’t occurred.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Plan C was reacting to an X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also indicated that the Bitcoin top wasn’t yet in. The analyst noted that the ISM PMI was still 47.9, below 50. Based on this, Sminston remarked that the spring was still coiling, with his accompanying chart showing that the BTC price records a parabolic rally once the ISM PMI breaks above 50.  The chart also showed that the Bitcoin price could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could then mark the bull market peak for BTC and the broader crypto market as Plan C suggested. In the meantime, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, with other macro data painting a mixed picture for the flagship crypto. The latest U.S. jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish for the crypto market.  BTC Needs To Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery According to a Glassnode report, the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery would be a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode claims this would signal renewed confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward more constructive trend dynamics.  Related Reading: Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns Glassnode further noted that as attention turns to whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the broader structure is starting to resemble earlier transitional failures. This is similar to the Q1 2022 period, with BTC’s prolonged inability to recover above this level materially increasing the risk of a deeper bearish extension.  The on-chain analytics platform added that if the BTC price remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to erode. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover said to have occurred between 2021 and 2022, before the BTC price topped.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

After a robust start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered significant resistance that has hindered its recovery trajectory, resulting in a brief dip below the $90,000 mark over the last few days. As analysts evaluate the situation, they have identified crucial levels that will influence Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. Critical Bitcoin Price Levels In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Ted Pillows outlined three critical price points for Bitcoin in the short-term price action. The first key level to monitor is $89,200, which has served as a vital support.  Should the Bitcoin price fall below this threshold, Ted Pillows predicts a subsequent drop toward the $87,500 level. But beyond this, Pillows cautioned that if the $87,500 support is lost on a daily basis, it could signal a significant downward trend for the cryptocurrency’s price in the near-term. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report On the upside, the analyst suggested that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $94,000 to $95,000 range to establish a positive momentum. Notably, a daily close above this level could pave the way for BTC to reach between $102,000 and $103,000.  Similarly, fellow analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the importance of the cryptocurrency’s price in maintaining its position above $87,200 to avoid a potential decline toward $69,230, which implies a potential 24% drop if this scenario materializes.  Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a slight uptick, reaching $91,390 at the time of writing, partly due to the US Supreme Court’s decision to delay a ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs case, an event anticipated to bring volatility to the cryptocurrency market. Bitfinex Whales’ Moves  Beyond technical analysis, there is a developing trend that many have overlooked. Bitfinex whales are apparently unwinding their BTC long holdings aggressively. Analysts such as Ash Crypto point out that this type of “unwind” has traditionally preceded significant market turbulence.  During a similar event in early 2025, the Bitcoin price stalled around the $74,000 level but subsequently experienced a major recovery rally of approximately 50%, surging to the $112,000 mark within just 43 days. Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils Ash noted that this could suggest that a similar pattern could unfold potentially this month, targeting price levels of $135,000 or more in the near term, which could result in a new all-time high for the market’s leading cryptocurrency.  According to analysts, Bitfinex whales successfully relieve market pressure brought on by sizable clusters of long holdings when they “clear the books.” By lowering the market’s targets, price-hunting algorithms can more easily change the direction upward. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The notorious crypto crash on October 10 of last year sent shockwaves through the market, resulting in the largest liquidation event in history with nearly $20 billion in losses. This catastrophic event ignited significant criticisms and fears among investors regarding the stability of the cryptocurrency market.  However, the upcoming crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, is being touted as a potential safeguard against future crashes. Market Manipulation In Crypto Could Plummet  Market expert Crypto Rover recently took to social media to express optimism about the CLARITY Act as the Senate prepares for a markup on January 15. According to Rover, this crypto bill could reduce market manipulation in the crypto space by an impressive 70% to 80%.  Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils He noted the devastating effects of the October 10 event, describing it as a “massacre” for crypto holders, many of whom lost their life savings without clear answers about who was ultimately responsible for the chaos. Rover is confident that with the implementation of the CLARITY Act, the cryptocurrency market could begin operating more like traditional financial markets (TradFi).  Institutional Investment Set To Surge  Once the CLARITY Act passes in the Senate, Rover asserts that it will move to the floor for a full vote before returning to the House for final approval and eventually reaching President Trump’s desk.  He further suggested that this entire process could take one to two months, potentially allowing the CLARITY Act to be signed into law by March 2026. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report Should this come to fruition, it is expected to open the floodgates for institutional investment in the crypto market, fundamentally changing the alleged “daily market manipulation” witnessed in the sector.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,357, having erased some of the gains seen at the beginning of the week when the market’s leading crypto surged towards a two-month high of $94,800.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s (BTC) near-term direction, one Wall Street analyst is standing firm in his bullish outlook. He predicts that Bitcoin could soon enter a price discovery, underscoring its value beyond being a payment currency to a market leader and one of the best-performing assets that could eventually reach gold’s market capitalization. Analyst Stays Bullish On Bitcoin Despite Price Instability In a recent interview with CNBC, William Blair’s fintech equity analyst Andrew Jeffrey said recent price swings do not change his long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s recovery and future value. CNBC opened the discussion by pointing out that crypto started the year on a stronger note than Q4 2025, rising about 5% before giving back more than 2% after a sharp rally.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Strongest XRP Price Rally In History Is Coming, Here’s Why When asked what was happening beneath the surface of Bitcoin’s latest moves, Jeffrey said its behavior reflects the nature of an immature asset. He explained that BTC has a market capitalization of more than $1.9 trillion. Yet, roughly one-third of the total supply is controlled by a small group of wallets, roughly estimated at 2 million.  The Wall Street analyst stated that this supply concentration creates instability, especially during periods of market stress. He added that recent buyers, particularly retail investors entering through ETFs, tend to have weaker conviction and are more likely to sell during downturns.  According to Jeffrey, these sell-offs can feed on themselves, leading to sharper declines. He said the current environment is broadly risk off, but emphasized that he sees this phase as temporary. The Wall Street analyst also highlighted his belief that Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as a store of value. He stated that BTC could eventually challenge gold’s role in that category and move closer to the precious metal’s market cap, which is currently about 15x larger than Bitcoin’s today.  While optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook, Jeffrey made it clear that he does not see it becoming a dominant payment tool. Instead, he stated that stablecoins like Circle’s USDC are more suited for transactions. The analyst emphasized that price discovery is still underway and that BTC’s long-term potential remains intact despite recent market turbulence.   Bitcoin Still Needs To Lead For Crypto To Rise  In the interview, Jeffrey spoke with CNBC about fading excitement around Bitcoin as newer crypto stories attract attention. CNBC raised concerns that BTC feels like old news as prices hover and interest shifts towards more interesting news surrounding companies like Ripple.   Related Reading: XRP Mirrors Gold’s Trajectory: What A Similar ATH Rally Would Mean Jeffrey replied that Bitcoin’s short-term price action is driven by investor psychology, while its long-term performance tells a different story. He highlighted that Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in the world over the past decade and said investors need to maintain that perspective.  CNBC also questioned whether crypto growth could now occur without Bitcoin leading the way. The Wall Street analyst responded that it would be very hard for the crypto market to see sustained gains without BTC at the forefront.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Cathie Wood, ARK Invest’s founder and CEO, said she expects the Trump administration could move beyond simply holding seized bitcoin and begin purchasing BTC to build a US strategic reserve, a shift she argued could become a catalytic signal for markets and other governments. Speaking on ARK’s “Bitcoin Brainstorm” podcast in an episode dated Jan. 08, Wood framed government buying as a potential inflection point at a time when she believes institutional participation remains “just beginning” and bitcoin’s supply dynamics are getting harder to ignore. “We have seen very little institutional buy-in, it is just beginning,” Wood said. “And I think if we get the US, for example, not adding just confiscated bitcoin to a strategic reserve but, you know, out there buying, and we don’t know if that’s going to be the case. But if they were to do so, I have a feeling that would set off what we’re all waiting for, which is, you know, the scarcity value to reassert itself again now that we’re near 20 million bitcoin outstanding and we only have one more million to go.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Emerges As A Hedge Amid Rising Global Geopolitical Tensions In the discussion, Wood suggested the administration’s posture so far has effectively been limited to confiscated holdings. She contrasted that with what she described as an earlier ambition for scale, noting “the original intent was to own a million bitcoin,” before adding her view that a pivot toward purchases is plausible. Midterms Could Drive US Bitcoin Reserve Buys Wood linked that possibility to political incentives heading into the 2026 US midterm elections, describing Trump as motivated to keep momentum and avoid being politically sidelined. “President Trump does not want to be a lame duck,” she said. “So I have a feeling that he is going to work with his crypto and AI czar to do a few things… [and] it seems as though there’s been reticence about actually buying bitcoin for the strategic reserve. So far, so far it’s confiscated… So I actually think they will start buying.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Indicator With 84% Hit Rate Flashes Again: Is A Price Rally Next? Wood also pointed to what she sees as aligned constituencies around the president, arguing he has “all kinds of reasons” to lean into crypto while emphasizing that the political calculus matters because of the midterm timeline. When the conversation turned to how such purchases could be executed, Wood echoed the idea that any reserve strategy would need to be budget-neutral. She didn’t outline a mechanism, but treated the constraint as a key gating factor for feasibility. Wood argued that explicit US buying would not just be a domestic market event. Iit could force other capitals to revisit reserve policy. “Something that’s really important… we thought that countries would adopt it much earlier than they have,” she said. “I think if the US actually says, ‘Okay, now we’re going to buy,’ that’s going to spur a lot of other governments to think this thing through. Do they want to be hostage to the dollar…? And you know, no, they don’t. So put some bitcoin in your reserves.” If that dynamic accelerates, Wood warned emerging-market currencies could face renewed pressure, describing a scenario where reserve diversification toward bitcoin reshapes volatility across weaker fiat regimes, a downstream effect, she suggested, of Washington making the first overt move from holding seized BTC to competing in the open market. At press time, BTC traded at $90,578. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price could be in for more pain as a crypto analyst has just released a gloomy short-term outlook, warning that another crash may be on the way. The analyst believes that Bitcoin’s overall market structure remains bearish. As a result, he expects the price to fall to about $76,000, representing a 20% decline from current levels.  Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 20% Crash Crypto market analyst Roman has issued a warning that Bitcoin could be heading for another sharp decline, with his primary target set near $76,000. In his post on X, he emphasized that the current market structure shows no evidence of a sustainable price bottom and that downside risk remains dominant.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Crash Another 50% As Analyst Marks $40,000 Bottom Target Roman explained that his bearish outlook is based on the daily timeframe, where Bitcoin has struggled to regain strong bullish momentum after a significant correction. He also noted that the price is still trading within a broader bearish trend, suggesting the market may simply be taking a pause before the next move lower.  The accompanying chart shows BTC trading above $90,000 while still well below the previous resistance area near $96,000. Each attempt to push higher has been rejected, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control of the market.   Notably, Roman’s chart has revealed that the expected move lower could start with a drop back to the mid $80,000s, followed by a deeper slide between $78,500 and $75,000. The hand-drawn projection on the chart also illustrates a sharp fall after a brief relief rally, suggesting that BTC’s decline could speed up once support breaks.  Volume behavior also plays a key role in Roman’s bearish outlook. The chart shows noticeably weak trading volume during Bitcoin’s recent rebound, which the analyst previously said is typical of holiday-driven pumps.  Additional Signals That Support Analyst’s Bearish Forecast Roman’s $76,000 Bitcoin crash forecast is a follow-up to previous posts in which he explained several reasons why the leading cryptocurrency is in a bear market and could correct again soon. He referenced historical indicator behavior to justify his latest prediction.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash To $25,000: Why The Bottom Is Much Lower The analyst explained that Bitcoin’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) were extremely oversold after its price dropped roughly 40% from its all-time high. As a result, the current consolidation has given these indicators a chance to reset.  Roman sees the lack of strong buying pressure during this reset as a warning sign. He stressed that a true bullish reversal would need rising volume and clear higher highs, which are not showing on the daily chart. The analyst also noted that Bitcoin’s longer-term trend remains bearish, with the market continuing to form lower highs within a declining range. He has concluded that until clear reversal signals appear, traders should treat any upside moves as corrective, not the start of a fresh bull run. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator has recently flipped back to a buy signal on the weekly timeframe, according to a Jan. 8 video analysis from crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev Capital TA). The setup matters, he argued, because the model has historically been associated with higher prices after corrective periods, even if its record is no longer spotless. In the video, Kev Capital walked viewers through the weekly Bitcoin chart with the hash ribbons overlay, describing it as one of the higher “hit rate” signals in crypto’s technical playbook. “There have been 19 buy signals on the weekly time frame throughout all of Bitcoin’s history and it has an 84% hit rate of playing out,” he said, adding that such consistency is rare for any single indicator. Hash ribbons attempt to infer miner stress and recovery by comparing short- and longer-term moving averages of network hash rate. Kev Capital framed it less as a simple “buy/sell” tool and more as a proxy for network health, where miner behavior can precede shifts in market structure. “It’s not just a buy and sell indicator. It’s tracking mining hash rate,” he said. “And what that basically means is it’s tracking the overall power and network health on the Bitcoin blockchain.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Nears Neutral As Price Recovers The mechanics, as he explained them, hinge on the 30-day moving average of hash rate (his chart showed this as a green line) versus the 60-day moving average (a gray line). When the 30-day crosses below the 60-day, the model labels it capitulation, which he described as aligning with bearish price action and a weaker network backdrop. When the 30-day crosses back above the 60-day, the indicator prints a buy signal (shown as blue dots on his chart), which he interprets as miners “rebounding” after weaker operators have been forced out. “Anytime that 30-day crosses below the 60, it marks a capitulation phase, which shows that there’s been bearish price action in a weaker network,” Kev Capital said. “Now, when it crosses back above is when you get the blue dots, and that is a buy signal. That’s when the 30-day moving average of hash rate crosses back above the 60-day moving average of hash rate.” Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy Signal Returns The near-term catalyst for his update was a fresh signal sequence around the end of December. Kev Capital said the hash ribbons flashed capitulation in the second-to-last week of December, followed by a buy signal in the last week of December. He noted the indicator was again “flashing a capitulation signal” during the current week, not yet confirmed which could set up another buy signal if the moving averages continue to “mingle” and then resolve higher. Related Reading: Why Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Is The ‘Most Bullish Thing Ever’: Jeff Park He also spent time qualifying the model’s reputation. While he cited an 84% historical hit rate for the weekly buy signals, he said that earlier in the current cycle the indicator printed two buy signals: in May and July that did not deliver the kind of follow-through that has defined prior successful instances. “We did go up from the original buy signal, but it really wasn’t a lot,” he said, contrasting that with prior hash ribbons episodes that “typically produce a 30 to 100% move.” In his telling, those underwhelming outcomes were enough to break what he described as a prior “100% hit rate” framing. https://t.co/vfZFXTAN77 #BTC Weekly Hash Ribbons buy signal and what it means. #Crypto #Altcoins — Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) January 8, 2026 Still, Kev Capital argues the context is now different because the latest signal comes after a drawdown. He referenced a 36% decline in Bitcoin during the recent corrective period and suggested the early signs of miner recovery, reflected in the moving averages stabilizing and attempting to turn up, are the conditions where the indicator has historically performed best. However, he cautioned that timing is variable, saying the setup can take “two to four to six weeks” to play out, or move sooner. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,009. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050.  The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy.  Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions. The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability. Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case.  ‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’ In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR.  Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide. Related Reading: GENIUS Act Key Provisions In Spotlight: XRP Attorney Deaton Alerts To Bankers’ Role For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR.  In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has absorbed a sharp sell-off and stabilized at key support, signaling that buyers are firmly in control. With the market holding its structure, insights from Quantum Models suggest that Wave (3) is underway, pointing toward a near-term target around $104,000. Q-Structure Confluence Holds Firm, Keeping The Bullish Bias Alive Elliott Chart, in a recent update, highlighted that Bitcoin remains firmly supported around the Q-Structure λ₅ confluence zone, a level that continues to underpin the broader bullish outlook. This support area has absorbed selling pressure, suggesting that larger participants are still defending key levels despite recent volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dips Further, Setting Up a High-Stakes Support Moment Upon closer examination of market structure, the recent pullback is now being classified as a complex corrective phase rather than the beginning of a larger downtrend. Specifically, the correction is interpreted as Intermediate Wave (2), unfolding through a Zigzag W | Zigzag X | Triangle Y setup.  With this corrective pattern largely resolved, Elliott Chart highlights that Intermediate Wave (3) is now in progress, with Minor Waves 1 and 2 already taking shape. This suggests the market is building the foundation for a more decisive move higher. The critical piece still developing is an impulsive Minor Wave 3. Historically, this wave tends to be the strongest and most aggressive part of an advance. If it unfolds as expected, the model points to a near-term Q-Target around $104,444, generated using the Q-Structure λᵣ projection. This bullish scenario is derived from insights within the Quantum Models framework and is not based on short-term noise. Notably, this potential trend reversal was first projected back on November 15, during Bitcoin’s decline. Sharp Flush Finds Strong Demand At Key Levels Delving into current price actions, CyrilXBT disclosed that Bitcoin experienced a sharp flush but found buyers precisely at a critical support level, allowing the price to stabilize and gradually grind higher. This reaction indicates that the recent sell-off was absorbed by strong demand rather than driven by panic selling, reflecting healthy market participation from buyers at key zones. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Recovery Extends Into 2026 as Charts Hint at Another Leg Higher This type of price action highlights absorption, not fear. What stands out most is the higher-low structure that has emerged following the drop. This formation is important because it signals that downside pressure is weakening. As long as Bitcoin continues to hold within this reclaimed range, the risk of a deeper sell-off diminishes, and the market maintains the potential for further upward moves. Sideways or consolidating price action at these levels is constructive for the overall crypto market. Maintaining this structure sets the stage for a healthier, more sustainable advance for Bitcoin rather than a rushed or volatile rebound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Morgan Stanley’s decision to file for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs caught even seasoned ETF watchers off guard and in Jeff Park’s telling, it’s a stronger signal about crypto’s next leg of adoption than another round of flows into the existing market leaders. The surprise wasn’t merely that a major wirehouse wants in. It was the branding and the timing. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart said he “didn’t see this coming,” amplifying Eric Balchunas’ “SHOCKER” reaction to the filings. Seyffart then pointed to Matt Hougan’s framing of what made it unusual: “Morgan Stanley manages 20 ETFs, but mostly under the Calvert/Parametric/Eaton Vance brands. These will be the 3rd and 4th ETFs to bear the ‘Morgan Stanley’ brand. Pretty remarkable.” Park, the head of alpha strategies at Bitwise and ProCap CIO, argues the late-cycle entry is precisely why the filing matters. “It is unheard of for a vanilla ETF product to launch two years after the first to market has already secured the liquidity throne,” he wrote. “IAU famously tried a year later, and never caught up.” Park’s point was that Morgan Stanley wouldn’t make that bet unless internal channels were flashing something the broader market still underestimates. Why This Is ‘The Most Bullish Thing’ For Bitcoin Park framed the filing as a total addressable market story, not a product story. “It means the market is MUCH bigger than even crypto professionals anticipated, especially to reach NEW customers,” he said. “This signals that despite IBIT being the fastest ETF in history to reach $80Bn in AUM (roughly 1/5th the time it took for second place VOO), there is enough untapped interest as viably researched and ascertained through MS’ proprietary wealth channels that they are willing to bet that a branded product has commercial viability.” He finished that thought with the kind of line that reads like a thesis statement for 2026: “It means we are still so early.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Wins As Trump Pumps GDP, Suppresses Oil: Arthur Hayes The “why now” also fits with Seyffart’s longer-running view that institutional platforms would eventually shift. “I’ve been saying for literal years that most of these firms will change their tune on crypto,” he wrote. “But it really was just a couple months ago that Morgan Stanley advisors were barred from buying crypto ETFs for their clients.” In other words: the timeline is compressing, and the posture is moving from cautious access to product ownership. Park’s second argument is that Morgan Stanley is treating Bitcoin as an identity product as much as an allocation sleeve. “It means that Bitcoin is ‘socially’ important just as much as it is ‘financially’ important as a product to offer to customers,” he wrote. “Consider the fact that for being ‘digital gold’ there are virtually no branded gold ETFs in existence, yet for Bitcoin there is.” In his view, that difference is the tell: a house-branded Bitcoin ETF isn’t only about exposure, it’s about what the firm signals to clients and recruits by having it at all. Park argued the branding functions as a credibility marker with a specific audience in mind. “This is because every asset manager knows that having a Bitcoin ETF communicates that they are forward thinking, young, and a little edgy that allows targeting the most challenging investor cohort that everyone wants to reach: UHNW Independent Investors,” he said.“ Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Improve, But Signal Still Not Decisive: Glassnode Morgan Stanley is making the bet that even if their ETF doesn’t scale to blockbuster success, there’s an intangible benefit that will help build their clout.” The third pillar is defensive: platform economics. “It is at the core a defensive move against platform disintermediation and fee leakage,” Park wrote. “By launching their own BTC ETF after IBIT already consolidated liquidity, Morgan Stanley is implicitly acknowledging a hard truth: DISTRIBUTION owns the customer, not product superiority.” He added why that matters strategically: “They are not going to let advisors default to third parties by outsourcing the economic rent. That’s why at first glance while this launch looks irrational through a pure AUM lens, also totally inevitable through a PLATFORM ECONOMICS lens.” That logic also surfaced in Seyffart’s exchange with James Van Straten, who asked why anyone would be surprised if a firm has “own distribution” and “huge demand from clients.” Seyffart’s answer didn’t dispute demand; it underscored that Morgan Stanley historically “doesn’t do a ton of ETF launches,” and that the decision to do so here is itself informative, even if, as he put it, “there’s plenty of demand” for many products that platforms never bother to manufacture. On timing, Seyffart said approval is “at least 75 days from now,” emphasizing that 75 days can be the fastest possible path under current processes, but also that “there’s plenty of products that don’t launch right at 75 days.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,256. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com