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Bitcoin is sitting at a “critical point,” with traders split between two familiar scripts: a full capitulation event, or the early innings of a durable bottoming process. In a Feb. 15 video explainer, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn argued the data is starting to line up for the latter, but with a clear caveat that any bottom is more likely to be a grind than a snapback. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 50% below its all-time high, a drawdown that looks severe in isolation but still smaller than the 70%+ declines seen in prior bear markets, Maartunn said. The more actionable question, in his framing, is not whether the market can go lower but whether the ingredients that usually precede a turn are appearing. Maartunn points first to what he describes as “structural selling pressure” tied to spot ETFs. According to his figures, the new spot ETFs have posted an $8.2 billion drawdown from peak holdings, “the largest on record”, creating persistent sell pressure. He adds that the current price is around 17% below the average buying price for ETF holders, putting a meaningful slice of that cohort underwater and potentially incentivized to cut exposure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Largest Shorts Liquidation Event Since 2024 — What Happened? He then pairs that flow story with a mechanical reset in derivatives. Open interest has been “sliced by more than half,” falling from $45.5 billion to $21.7 billion, with a 27% drop in open interest in the last week alone. Maartunn describes this as a broad deleveraging event, painful in real time, but historically consistent with conditions that allow a bottom to form. “Look, it’s definitely painful for anyone who is overleveraged, but getting rid of all that speculation is an absolutely necessary step to form a real sustainable market bottom,” he said. “This is a signal of a major wash out of speculative excess.” To gauge whether the drawdown is translating into capitulation-like stress, Maartunn focuses on short-term holders. He cites the short-term holder MVRV ratio at 0.72, implying the average short-term holder is down about 28%, “deep underwater” as a group. In his telling, that’s not a routine reading: it’s the lowest level since the July 2022 bottom, and a band that has historically aligned with periods of maximum financial pain. “This level of financial stress is pretty rare historically, and it usually happens during periods of major capitulation,” Maartunn said. “Now, sure, could this ratio go even lower? Absolutely. But what history shows us is that when we get down into these levels, the risk-to-reward profile for Bitcoin starts to look a lot better.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flirts With ‘Undervalued’ As MVRV Slides Toward 1 Maartunn also frames the current structure as a retest of a major support cluster — where the previous cycle’s all-time high intersects the upper boundary of an older trading range — a zone that has often mattered in past cycle transitions. From there, he moves to time-based analogs, suggesting prior bear-market durations imply a broad window between June and December 2026, with the last two cycles clustering most tightly between September and November. His closing point is that bottoms are rarely single-day events. In his view, ETF-driven structural selling, the leverage flush, stress among short-term holders, and the retest of key levels can all coexist inside a longer bottoming process — with sentiment as the final tell. “A real market bottom… that’s usually marked by just apathy,” he said. “When engagement on social media is totally dead, your timeline is quiet, and honestly, nobody seems to care anymore. That period of total disinterest is often the point of maximum financial opportunity.” Overall, the implication of Maartunn’s framework is straightforward: the data may be shifting toward early bottom formation signals, but the confirming evidence, particularly around flows and sentiment, could still arrive in stages, with volatility and further stress tests along the way. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,710. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $70,000 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $68,800 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $69,500 and $69,200. The price is trading near $68,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $69,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,400 and $68,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $70,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $69,200 support zone. There was a push below $69,000. The price dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $69,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading near $68,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,500 level. A close above the $69,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $69,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,200 level. The first major support is near the $68,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The next support is now near the $67,350 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $67,350 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $66,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $66,500. Major Resistance Levels – $69,500 and $70,000.

Bitcoin’s February drop to about $60,000 was the kind of single-day panic people will remember as a bottom. But the more accurate reading of this washout is harder and more useful: this cycle quit in stages, and the sellers rotated. A Feb. 10 report from Checkonchain framed the move as a capitulation event that arrived […]
The post Bitcoin hit $60,000 because two different groups finally surrendered — on-chain data shows who blinked appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Crypto winter has a branding problem. The phrase makes it sound like the chain goes quiet, wallets stop moving, and the whole machine turns cold. However, the cleanest proof of retail pulling back rarely lives on-chain. The people who vanish first aren’t the power users bridging stables into DeFi or the long-term holders shuffling coins […]
The post Robinhood’s $221 million crypto revenue drop shows crypto winter isn’t on chain and retail already moved appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery attempts and lingering macro uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a transitional state, as it leaves euphoric expansion but is not yet fully in capitulation. Ultimately, current price action reflects a tug of war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. Nonetheless, on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency is likely to embark on more trips to the downside. CVDD: Bitcoin’s Compass to Cycle Lows Since 2012 In a recent post on the X platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has identified Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. According to the crypto pundit, the metric is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225. Related Reading: BNB Chain Expands With $1B Fund Access While BNB Price Nears Critical Support Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify major market bottoms by analyzing the behaviour of long-term holders. To understand CVDD,  one needs to recognize the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).  CDD is every Bitcoin accumulated that remains unmoved in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the cumulative historical value of destroyed coin days and adjusts it into a valuation model to produce a price level that historically aligns with the major Bitcoin cycle bottom. Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price bottoms with remarkable accuracy. The model essentially measures when older, long–held coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle tops and accumulate during deep bear phases. Is Bitcoin Sitting On A Hidden Safety Net? Over time, CVDD has acted as a floor beneath price during severe drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 sell-off, the Bitcoin price often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before staging long-term recoveries.  Currently, CVDD sits at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. It does not necessarily imply that price must fall to this level, but rather that it serves as a historically significant structural support if broader market conditions further deteriorate.  When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD,  it typically signals that the market remains in a healthier macro position. Meanwhile, when the Bitcoin price compresses towards it, sentiment often becomes pessimistic, and long-term accumulation tends to intensify. As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it might be helpful to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the $45,225 CVDD level. A decisive move toward it could signal deeper corrective pressure, while sustained strength above it reinforces the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact. As of this writing,  BTC is valued at around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of nearly 2% in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next?   Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

As the Bitcoin price tumbled in the past few weeks, several investors are increasingly building short positions against the premier cryptocurrency. A recent analysis predicted an impending short squeeze, as the funding rates plunged to new lows. According to the latest on-chain data, this short squeeze not only happened; it occurred at a rate not seen in years. $736M In Shorts Wiped Out Across All Exchanges In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that the Bitcoin market recently experienced the largest short liquidation event since September 2024. The relevant indicator here is the Short Liquidations USD metric, which tracks the total dollar value of short positions in Bitcoin that were forcibly closed (liquidated) by exchanges over a given period.  Related Reading: Solana Funding Rates Hit 17-Day Negative Streak — What This Means For Price According to Darkfost, this liquidation event comes second when compared to the $773 million in positions forcefully closed on September 20, 2024. As was earlier mentioned, this event was preceded by a period where there were significantly high amounts of sell positions (reflected by the deeply negative funding rates) on Binance and other exchanges. Typically, when a disproportionate amount of short positions is forcefully closed, this offsets what is referred to as a short squeeze. During a short squeeze, sell-side liquidity is converted, by liquidation dynamics, to jet fuel for upward price movement.  Darkfost further explained that the derivatives market is currently heavy with speculative positioning, while the spot market, on the other hand, continues to struggle with thin liquidity. This imbalance creates a fragile market environment, where aggressive shorts can amplify upside volatility if squeezed. However, it is worth noting that in the scenario where there is sustained scarcity of demand, the current upside rally sponsored by the short squeeze may also not be sustained. Hence, until the spot market starts to see a significant demand that aligns with the present conditions, Bitcoin is best described as being in an uncertain phase.  Bitcoin Market Overview  At the time of writing, the price of BTC sits at around $69,878, reflecting a 1.5% leap in the past day. On the weekly timeframe, the flagship cryptocurrency seems to have barely moved, recording a slight upward growth of about 0.7%. Meanwhile, the premier cryptocurrency continues to drift further away from its record-high of $126,080, now 45% deep in the red. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bounce Back? Top Analyst Breaks Down Prior Major Corrections Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Congress should move fast on the Clarity Act to give investors and companies a firmer sense of what counts as allowed activity in crypto markets. He argued that clearer rules would calm the recent swings traders have seen and help restore confidence. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Senators Hit A Wall Over Stablecoin Rules Based on reports, the bill has split committee leaders. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced part of the market-structure plan, while the Senate Banking Committee stopped its planned markup after intense pushback over language that would limit yields on stablecoins. That split helped prompt major industry players to pull back support, reshaping the path forward. A Push For Passage Before Spring Reports say some lawmakers want the measure ready for a presidential signature this spring. Supporters say speed matters; critics say rushing could lock in rules that harm legitimate services. US President Donald Trump’s approval is being discussed as a near-term finish line by some backers, and Republican and Democratic senators alike have been urged to find common ground. White House Tried To Broker A Deal Reports note that the White House convened meetings with bank and crypto executives in an effort to bridge gaps, but the discussions ended without an agreement. White House advisers, including Patrick Witt, have been central to those talks. The big sticking point remains whether stablecoin interest and reward programs should be restricted, and how strict any limits would be. Market Reaction And What It Means Based on market notes, Bitcoin and other digital assets have shown fresh volatility in recent days, and some traders welcomed talk of a clear US framework as a stabilizing signal while others feared the specifics could cut into revenues for exchanges and lenders. Coinbase’s public withdrawal of support altered the political math and sent a ripple through equities and crypto prices. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Who Wins And Who Loses In The Deal Reports say banks favor strict limits on stablecoin yields to avoid a flight of deposits into crypto platforms. Exchanges, in contrast, argue that rewards help users and that cutting them would reduce competition and innovation. Lawmakers will have to balance consumer protection, systemic risk, and commercial freedom. The final version could look very different from what’s now on the table. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Litecoin has closed the daily session on a bullish note, signaling renewed short-term momentum as price presses against a key resistance level. With $57 now acting as the immediate barrier, a decisive breakout and sustained hold above this zone could open the door for the next leg higher, potentially accelerating upside toward the mid-$60s. Bullish Daily Close Signals Early Strength Providing a daily technical outlook on Litecoin, crypto analyst CryptoWzrd noted that LTC closed the session with a bullish daily candle, largely mirroring Bitcoin’s upward movement. The positive close signals improving short-term momentum, but the expert cautioned that broader continuation will require confirmation from additional market factors, particularly the LTCBTC pair. Related Reading: Litecoin Structure Intact, But $63 Remains The Line Bulls Must Defend Although Litecoin printed a constructive candle, LTCBTC closed indecisively, reflecting hesitation in Litecoin’s relative strength against Bitcoin. Sustained upside for LTC will likely depend on a shift toward clear bullish sentiment in LTCBTC, as that would confirm capital rotation and stronger underlying demand. From a structural perspective, CrytoWzrd emphasized that one more strong bullish daily candle from the current level is needed to validate a breakout above the daily lower-high trendline. If such confirmation occurs, Litecoin could transition into a more established bullish phase, with the $68 resistance level emerging as the next key upside target above the $56 zone. A stable and sustained move beyond resistance would further strengthen the case for trend continuation. Until that higher-timeframe breakout is confirmed, the analyst plans to focus on lower-timeframe setups, particularly over the weekend. His approach remains tactical, looking for quick scalp opportunities while waiting for a more mature chart structure before engaging in larger directional trades. $57: Litecoin Intraday Decision Zone The analyst went on to explain that Litecoin’s intraday structure is currently pressing against the key $57 resistance zone, a level that now acts as a short-term decision point for price. A clean and sustained hold above this area would signal strength and open the path toward $64, with the potential for further extension if momentum accelerates. Related Reading: Litecoin 2M Bollinger Band Width Hits New Lows, CMT-Certified Analyst Reveals What It Means He emphasized that simply wicking above resistance will not be enough. What’s needed is a stable bullish structure, ideally supported by rising volume and constructive follow-through, before considering a long position. Such confirmation would indicate that buyers are in control rather than the move being a temporary liquidity sweep. At the same time, he noted that Bitcoin’s direction will likely dictate whether this breakout gains traction. Litecoin continues to follow broader market sentiment, meaning BTC’s strength could act as a catalyst for further gains. Until a mature and well-defined intraday structure forms, patience remains essential before engaging the next trade. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is hovering near key liquidity zones after a week of downward momentum, and traders are now eyeing untapped areas around $64,000. With price action showing potential short-term swings and H1 support under close watch, the next move could hinge on whether Bitcoin tests this low or reclaims higher levels first. Weekend Range Sets The Stage For Next Week’s Moves After a week of downward momentum, Bitcoin has stepped into a key liquidity area. According to Lennaert Snyder, the market is currently forming a range, which could provide clear trading opportunities in the coming week. While weekend trading isn’t his focus, observing the price action now helps plan next week’s approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Structure May Be Changing — This Metric Explains Why Liquidity is concentrated around the $71,422 range high, and the reaction to a retest of this zone will be important. Testing the range high could trigger short positions if the bearish market structure break (MSB) holds, or offer long opportunities if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the area. On the lower side, the $64,500 low and all liquidity beneath it remain largely untouched, making this a critical zone to monitor. When the market reaches these levels, traders will be watching for either high-probability reversals for long entries or continuation shorts if the support fails. The interplay between the range high at ~$71,422 and the lows around $64,500 will likely dictate the next significant swings, offering strategic opportunities for those tracking both sides of the market. Bitcoin Eyes Short-Term Breakout Before Possible Pullback BTC is showing short-term activity that suggests a minor push higher before resuming lower moves. Crypto analyst Scient highlighted that the H1 support/resistance level at $68,000, which was rejected two days ago, has now been broken and flipped, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop From the current setup, a new bearish channel is beginning to form. As part of this structure, Bitcoin is likely to sweep liquidity in the near term before heading lower. Observing these smaller intraday moves can provide traders with clues about how the market intends to reach its next major zones. Key levels to watch include the premium zone high at $72,200 and the untapped stacked liquidity above it, sitting between $73,000 and $74,000. These areas could attract buyers temporarily, creating a minor push toward the $73,000 region before the broader downtrend resumes. Traders should monitor price behavior closely when approaching these levels. On the downside, the H1 support at $68,000 remains critical. A clean break below this zone could accelerate the drop earlier than expected, confirming the bearish channel. Maintaining awareness of both the short-term push higher and this key support will help identify high-probability setups in the immediate timeframe. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor’s latest message is blunt and direct: “Go Bitcoin today — the money won’t fix itself.” He’s pressing an idea he has pushed for years — that holding Bitcoin is a deliberate choice against the slow decline of fiat money — and his firm’s actions back up the words. Bitcoin sits below Saylor’s firm’s average purchase price, yet buying has continued. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Strategy’s Massive Position According to reports, Strategy now holds 714,644 BTC. The average cost of that stash is listed at $76,056 per coin. Recent filings show another 1,142 BTC was bought this month at about $78,815 each, a purchase that amounted to roughly $90 million. At today’s trading levels near $68,000, the position shows an estimated unrealized loss of close to $6 billion, while the reported book value of holdings tops $54 billion after nearly six years of steady accumulation. Go bitcoin today. The money won’t fix itself. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 13, 2026 Public companies together are reported to hold about 1.13 million BTC, and Strategy makes up almost two-thirds of that total. Reports note that close to 200 public firms hold some Bitcoin, though most of the new buying in January was concentrated in a very small group. One company leads the herd by a large margin. High-Conviction Buying Saylor’s message isn’t just rhetoric. Reports have disclosed that Strategy follows a long-range plan that includes a seven-year road map disclosed in its Q4 2025 filings, which aims to raise Bitcoin per share by 2032 based on various yield scenarios. The firm’s playbook is simple: buy on dips and avoid selling. The mantra is repeated: buy Bitcoin and do not sell. That posture has consequences. Some see it as a show of commitment that can encourage other firms and big investors to act similarly. Others view the heavy concentration of corporate exposure as a source of market fragility — if Strategy were to change course unexpectedly, prices could shift fast. Liquidity matters. That risk is understated when the focus is only on conviction. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Market Impact And Criticism Reports say the firm’s buying has been so large that it dominated corporate additions in January, accounting for more than 90% of net new corporate Bitcoin purchases that month. That level of dominance brings scrutiny. Questions have been raised about governance, balance sheet risk, and what long-term holding means for shareholders who expect stable returns. Some critics argue that a company piling into a volatile asset creates a mismatch with traditional corporate responsibilities. At the same time, supporters argue that patient ownership of Bitcoin can protect against long-term currency erosion. This is the case Saylor makes: losses on paper are temporary if the thesis holds, and time is an ally for those convinced of Bitcoin’s store-of-value case. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues.  No Systemic Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends.  In situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the crypto industry.  Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level.  Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem and FTX’s bankruptcy.  It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers.  The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to $3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock.  Bitcoin rebounded quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained speculative energy from the market.  Active addresses declined by 70%, and miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years to revisit its previous peak.  Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses exceeding 80% have required three years or longer.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation.  Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term resistance wall at $70,000.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has plunged recently. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin NUPL Has Dropped To The 0.18 Level In a new post on X, o-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, which is an indicator that compares the amount of unrealized profit and loss held by investors on the BTC blockchain. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token on the network to find the price at which they were last involved in a transfer. If this previous selling price is greater than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is assumed to be carrying some net unrealized profit. Similarly, the cost basis being lower implies the token is underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red The exact amount of profit/loss held by a coin is equal to the difference between the two prices. The NUPL sums up this value for each category and then subtracts it to determine the net situation for the network. Additionally, it also divides the result by the market cap to showcase how the net profit/loss among investors looks relative to the asset’s total valuation. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up above the 0.5 level during the rallies in 2024 and 2025. This suggests that investors were carrying net profits more than half as much as the cryptocurrency’s market cap. These phases of euphoria were followed by price declines that took the metric into the zone between 0.25 and 0.5. BTC managed to recover from the first two of these drops, but the latest one has been followed by an extended phase of downtrend. From the chart, it’s visible that this bearish action has taken the cryptocurrency to a value of 0.18. This level indicates that profits are still dominant on the network, but they are much thinner than before. The level lies inside a region that the analytics firm defines as pertaining to “hope/fear” among the investors. “This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades,” explained the analytics firm. The last time that the Bitcoin NUPL saw a substantial drawdown into the region was during the 2022 bear market. Back then, the cryptocurrency ended up traveling right through the zone and into the extreme fear area below the zero level, corresponding to net losses being held by the majority of investors. Related Reading: Shiba Inu At Risk of 70% Decline? Price Breaks Below Parallel Channel It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will stay in the region for this time around and which one will follow next. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped toward $65,000 on Thursday, but the asset has kicked back up to $69,000 on Friday. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

A US Army veteran and XRP community influencer has drawn attention with a bold prediction: he believes XRP could overtake Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency within six years. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors His comments come amid a period of market turbulence that has seen Bitcoin’s value slide and XRP’s price fluctuate. Analysts warn the scenario is highly speculative, but it has sparked debate among traders and enthusiasts alike. Market Size Versus Market Story Reports note that Bitcoin still dominates. With a market cap near $1.37 trillion, it dwarfs XRP’s $86 billion. At current prices, XRP would need to climb to roughly $22.5 per token just to match Bitcoin’s market value. That represents a nearly 1,500% increase from today’s trading levels. The scale of the gap makes Patrick Riley’s forecast ambitious, especially considering Bitcoin’s long-standing role as the leading crypto asset. If Bitcoin doesn’t break $150,000 this year and reclaim it’s twelve year trend line, it’s going to re-test $1,000. Either way it goes, $XRP will take the #1 spot within the next 6 years after which Bitcoin will be relegated to a nostalgia collectible for those with an interest in… pic.twitter.com/TxOnCdCqHB — Patrick L Riley (@Acquired_Savant) February 10, 2026 Riley bases part of his prediction on long-term trendlines. According to him, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below significant trendlines drawn over the past decade. Whether Bitcoin recovers above these levels or continues its decline, Riley believes XRP could rise to take the top spot. He sets a timeline of six years for this shift, putting the potential event around 2032. Technical Lines And Tale-Telling Reports have disclosed that trendlines can influence trader behavior but do not guarantee outcomes. A chart stretching back over a decade may appear decisive, yet actual price movements are shaped by many factors: market confidence, institutional activity, regulation, and capital flows. Riley has previously made headlines for suggesting high-profile figures are tied to Bitcoin’s creation and framing market swings as deliberate attempts to suppress XRP. Such claims energize communities but are not proof of likely outcomes. Currently, Bitcoin trades roughly 16 times larger than XRP by market capitalization. Even after recent market drops, it maintains deep liquidity and a strong network effect. XRP would need a combination of wider adoption, investor confidence, and market momentum to close that gap. According to reports, this would require events that fundamentally shift how capital is allocated in the crypto space. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In What Would Have To Happen Reports say XRP overtaking Bitcoin remains a speculative scenario. Bitcoin would need to experience a sharp decline, or XRP would need extraordinary growth — possibly both — for the top spot to change hands. Market watchers suggest keeping an eye on adoption trends, partnerships, and price action over the coming years. For now, Bitcoin’s position remains secure, while XRP’s potential rally continues to excite its community. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is nearing a level on the MVRV ratio that historically lines up with market “undervaluation,” according to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, as traders look for signs that a four-month drawdown from October 2025’s all-time high is shifting from distribution into accumulation. Is Bitcoin Undervalued? In a post on X, Korean Dan said Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” arguing that the market is getting close to a threshold that has often marked compelling risk-reward for longer-horizon buyers. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming “After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for approximately 4 months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “Generally speaking, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is considered to be undervalued. The current value is around 1.1, which can be seen as being close to the undervalued zone.” The MVRV framing matters because the metric has tended to compress toward 1 around prior cycle lows. The chart shared alongside the post shows the ratio at roughly 1.10, with earlier sub-1.0 dips highlighted around past bottoming windows. Crypto Dan cautioned that traders shouldn’t assume the current setup will rhyme perfectly with prior drawdowns, specifically because the preceding advance looked different on valuation measures. “ However, unlike previous cycles, it is necessary to recognize that in this cycle, Bitcoin did not sharply rise all the way into the overvalued zone during the uptrend,” he wrote. “Accordingly, the pattern of the decline may also appear differently from the previous bottom zones, so it seems prudent to prepare for that possibility in our response.” That caveat became the focal point of a short back-and-forth in replies. One user, onlyus8x, suggested that if Bitcoin reached this cycle’s prior all-time high more than three times faster than before, the downturn could also resolve faster—“might the winter also pass 3 times faster?” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K Crypto Dan pushed back on a simple speed analogy, replying: “Because there are differences from your past, I personally set the criteria differently from past decline cycles by comprehensively judging these things as well.” Mayer Multiple And The 200-Week MA A separate post from analyst Will Clemente pointed to two long-watched, price-based benchmarks that are also pressing into historically constructive ranges. “Throughout Bitcoin’s life span we have seen two indicators continue to be the best global market bottom signals: The Mayer multiple (distance from 200 day moving average) and the 200 week moving average,” Clemente wrote. “Both of these are clearly in long term accumulation territory.” The charts he shared show a Mayer Multiple around 0.60, alongside a backtest table that flags prior instances when the indicator fell to roughly that level. The same image placed Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average near $57,926, with Bitcoin shown about 15% above it and a note that it has “not yet touched” that line in the current drawdown. At press time, BTC traded at $67,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have long been shaped by shifting liquidity, investor behavior, and macroeconomic forces, but identifying true structural changes has often proved challenging. Currently, a high-precision metric is emerging as a clear signal for detecting when BTC’s market dynamics are fundamentally shifting rather than simply experiencing short-term volatility. As BTC matures as a global asset, tools like this are helping investors move beyond speculation and toward data-driven insights that reveal the network’s true direction. What This Metric Signal Has Marked In Every Bitcoin Previous Cycle The Bitcoin Realized Cap impulse is one of the most precise metrics that has ever been created to identify true structural change in BTC. Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, revealed on X that when the Realized Cap impulse long-term turns negative, it signals that the market uncertainty has entered a fear-driven phase defined by capital flow, not sentiment.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Deeper Into Correction With Spot Demand Drying Up – What To Know The metric signals a critical imbalance that, even as BTC ETFs accumulate and large institutions like MicroStrategy continue to add to their positions, incoming capital is still not enough to absorb the period when supply exceeds demand. BTC is fundamentally driven by supply absorption, and if incoming capital can not absorb the supply exiting circulation or remaining inactive, the result will be structural weakness in price. However, reversing this scenario would require a significantly higher level of accumulation, which is several times greater than the current pace, allowing for structural metrics indicators like the Realized Cap impulse to consistently turn upward again. This is the part that few investors understand.  Wedson noted that long-term holders and the true OGs are the original participants who are controlling a large share of BTC’s supply. Historically, their behavior has defined every major market cycle. This metric does not track narratives; instead, it measures who is truly in control. Why The Current Environment Limits Bitcoin Short-Term Upside The clearest way to understand the broader environment in which Bitcoin is evolving today is by examining the Bitcoin Z-Score heatmap. Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted that this examination would bring together several core factors influencing the BTC price action into a single framework and offer a high-level view of the market’s overall on-chain health. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped In Bear Market Woes As Liquidity Runs Dry, Is Another Crash Coming? According to Darkfost, this heatmap aggregates key indicators data tied to demand, liquidity, and BTC valuation levels, effectively summarizing whether the market structure is improving or deteriorating. However, all of these indicators remain firmly in the red, signaling that the underlying environment of BTC has not yet shifted toward recovery. As long as these indicators continue to reflect weak demand and constrained liquidity, the structural backdrop for BTC will be unable to reach new highs in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The recent slide of Bitcoin has punched a hole in short-term holders’ wallets and left loud questions about where prices might settle next. Markets are jittery; people who bought high are taking losses. Some sellers reacted fast, and that rush shows up in on-chain numbers. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In Realized Losses Hit Historical Levels According to CryptoQuant and an analyst writing under the name IT Tech, Bitcoin’s seven-day average of realized net losses climbed to about $2.3 billion — a figure that puts this sell-off among the largest loss events on record. “This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction,” IT Tech said. This spike in losses means many traders sold at a loss over the span of a week, not just a day. Price Action And Market Context Reports say Bitcoin fell sharply from its recent peak and has been bouncing between support lines that traders watch closely. After topping near $126,000, the token traded as low as about $60,000 earlier in the month and has been seen around $66,600 on recent checks. That gap is large, and it explains why panic selling pushed realized losses so high. Signs Pointing To Capitulation Reports note that on-chain indicators tied to profit and loss show losses are rising faster than gains. One contributor at CryptoQuant, GugaOnChain, flagged a Z-Score reading that he describes as consistent with deep capitulation — a phase where more holders give up than buy. When that happens, markets often become chaotic first and steady later. What Analysts Are Saying Now Reports say some market commentators expect pressure to continue for a while. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst, described the market as being in “full capitulation mode,” and warned selling could persist for months before clearer footing appears. Others point out that heavy losses can also clear the way for patient buyers later. Where Bottoms Have Lived Before Reports have disclosed that CryptoQuant’s measure of the “realized price” sits near $55,000 — a level that has been linked in past cycles to the end of big sell-offs and the start of sideways consolidation. That does not mean a floor has formed this time; it only marks a region where past buyers, on average, stopped losing money on their holdings. Markets have traded well below similar marks before they steadied, so history offers patterns, not guarantees. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K What This Means For Traders And Investors Short term, expect wild swings. Some days will bring sharp rallies that reverse quickly. Other days will drag, and realized losses may keep rising as more investors pull out. Longer term, if institutional demand returns or big holders stop forcing sales, price stability could follow. Right now the market is clearing out positions and testing whether support levels hold. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

JPMorgan is sticking with its long-run bitcoin upside framework, including a $266,000 per-coin target, even as the bank flags near-term stress signals around mining economics and still-chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026. The bank’s latest read hinges on two pillars: a “soft” floor around bitcoin’s production cost, and a valuation model that maps bitcoin’s potential market cap against private-sector gold investment on a volatility-adjusted basis. In the near term, JPMorgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to produce a bitcoin at roughly $77,000, while bitcoin was trading around the mid-$60,000s in the same analysis window, putting spot below breakeven for less efficient operators. JP Morgan Remains Bullish On Bitcoin Historically, JPMorgan argues, production cost tends to behave like “soft” support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflexive: if prices stay below profitability for long enough, weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower, and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above spot. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital (not retail or corporate treasuries) is the marginal buyer that can restart flows when the macro backdrop stabilizes. As JPMorgan put it: “We are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets, driven by institutional investors.” JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 “call,” but as the mathematical end point of a gold-parity thought experiment. In the bank’s model, matching the scale of private gold investment (roughly $8 trillion, excluding central banks) implies a bitcoin price around $266,000, a level the analysts themselves described as “unrealistic” in the near term. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming The bridge between “unrealistic now” and “possible later,” in JPMorgan’s framing, is volatility. The bank has pointed to a bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards and argues that gold’s surge since October alongside rising gold volatility has improved bitcoin’s relative appeal over the long run. “The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote. JPMorgan’s stance effectively splits the tape into two timeframes: a messy adjustment process if bitcoin remains below mining breakevens, and a longer-duration bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the asset’s role versus gold as 2026 unfolds. At press time, BTC traded at $66,229. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Some key on-chain indicators are flashing a red signal for Bitcoin, suggesting bearish market conditions for the number one cryptocurrency. Major On-Chain Indicators Are In Red Zone For Bitcoin In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about what on-chain indicators are suggesting for the current Bitcoin market. The analyst has shared a heatmap that shows the signals 10 metrics related to the cryptocurrency are flashing right now. The indicators in the graph are all key on-chain metrics covering different dimensions of the network. For example, the MVRV Z-Score deals with general investor profitability, while the Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin specifically track the profit-loss status of the short-term holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop All the indicators in the heatmap are currently giving a red signal, implying conditions aren’t favorable for a bull market. “As long as that remains the case, it is hard to imagine BTC reaching new highs in the short term,” noted Darkfrost. Red has spread on the heatmap as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its bearish price action. A couple of metrics, however, have been bearish since even before the market downturn. The indicators in question are the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and CryptoQuant Network Activity Index. The former of these tracks the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. This metric being bearish means that there is a lack of speculative push in the market. From the chart, it’s visible that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse went red during the drawdown phase from the first half of 2025 and has remained so since then. The CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, gauging the transaction activity occurring on the Bitcoin blockchain, left the bull territory in late 2024. Activity on the network has since mostly maintained at bearish levels, except for a few brief flashes. Most of the other metrics didn’t turn red until the November 2025 price decline. The last metric to go red was the Trader On-Chain Profit Margin, which was green during the January recovery rally, but gave the bear signal after the most recent price plunge. In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders have shown signs of loss-taking recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post. The short-term holder cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins during the past 155 days. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% As the below chart shows, these holders have ramped up their loss deposits to exchanges recently. Investors usually transfer their tokens to centralized exchanges when they want to participate in selling, so these loss deposits can be a sign that some short-term holders are capitulating. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,300, down more than 2% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Standard Chartered lowered its long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the second time in less than three months as the cryptocurrency market appears to have entered a new bearish cycle. With the leading cryptocurrency currently consolidating below the key $70,000 level, the bank now warns that the asset could fall as low as $50,000 before staging a recovery. Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Target to $100,000 In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.  The latest figure marks a significant reduction from its previous $150,000 projection for BTC. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from an ambitious $300,000. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup According to Bloomberg’s report on the matter, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior, especially over the past month’s downtrend. The leading cryptocurrency has declined more than 40% from its October peak toward current trading prices of around $67,160, while the US spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) sector has seen nearly $8 billion in net outflows.  Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have weighed heavily on digital assets. In particular, declining ETF holdings have removed what had been a critical source of demand during previous rallies. The interest‑rate environment remains a central concern. Markets have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously thought.  Kendrick also pointed to uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to Bitcoin caution. The bank warned that deteriorating macro conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term. Ethereum Could Drop To $1,400 Despite the more conservative Bitcoin forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous crypto market collapses.  Kendrick highlighted that on‑chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy.  Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Moreover, the bank’s head of research highlighted that the market has not experienced the type of high‑profile platform failures that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion. The bank also revised its outlook for Ethereum (ETH). Its 2026 price target for the second‑largest cryptocurrency was reduced to $4,000 from $7,500. Before reaching that level, analysts expect Ether could fall to around $1,400.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is once again facing notable selling pressure. The market confronts a challenging phase marked by weakening momentum and cautious investor positioning. Recent price action suggests that bullish conviction has softened. Traders are increasingly attentive to liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and shifting market sentiment. While volatility is not unusual at this stage of the cycle, the current environment reflects a market searching for direction rather than sustaining a clear upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses Hit Luna Crash Levels — But Price Context Points To A Different Market Phase A recent CryptoQuant report provides additional context through Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite metric that integrates valuation, profitability, spending behavior, and sentiment indicators. According to the analysis, BCMI has fallen into the low 0.2 range, a level historically associated more with early bear market phases — such as those seen in 2018 and 2022 — rather than routine mid-cycle corrections. This shift suggests a deeper structural adjustment may be underway. Notably, BCMI was hovering near 0.5 as recently as October, a zone typically interpreted as market equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. The subsequent decline indicates that this balance has broken down. Whether this signals the start of a prolonged bearish phase or a temporary reset will likely depend on future liquidity conditions, investor demand, and broader macroeconomic developments. BCMI Breakdown Points To Structural Weakness In Bitcoin Market The CryptoQuant report highlights a notable deterioration in Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), suggesting a shift away from mid-cycle consolidation toward a more defensive market regime. According to the analysis, the mid-cycle equilibrium around the 0.5 level failed to hold, with no meaningful rebound emerging from the 0.3 zone. Instead, the index continued declining directly toward the low 0.2 range without the type of expansion reset typically seen during healthier corrective phases. This pattern differs from past mid-cycle cooling periods and increasingly resembles a transition into a risk-off market environment. Historical comparisons provide additional perspective. Previous cycle bottoms generally formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, notably during 2019 and again in the 2022–2023 bear phase. Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, implying that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish structural framework, full capitulation conditions have not yet materialized. Because BCMI aggregates valuation metrics such as MVRV, profitability indicators like NUPL, spending behavior via SOPR, and broader sentiment measures, its decline into the low 0.2 range reflects shrinking unrealized profits, rising realized losses, deteriorating sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. Unless the index stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4–0.5 zone, the probability of continued structural weakness remains elevated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support After Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects increasing structural pressure following the recent loss of the $70,000 level, a key psychological and technical threshold that had previously acted as support. Price has now retreated toward the mid-$60,000 range, placing BTC below shorter-term trend averages and signaling weakening bullish momentum. This shift suggests the market is transitioning from consolidation toward a more defensive phase. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs since the late-cycle peak near the $120,000 region. A pattern often associated with corrective or transitional market environments. Recent declines have been accompanied by elevated trading volume. Typically indicative of distribution or forced deleveraging rather than gradual profit-taking. Such dynamics often increase volatility while complicating sustained recovery attempts. Related Reading: Long-Term Ethereum Holders Expand Positions While Market Faces Pressure: Rare Signal Emerges From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone emerges as a critical support area. This region aligns with prior consolidation phases and high-liquidity trading zones that historically attracted demand. Holding above this level could allow Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially form a base for sideways consolidation. However, a decisive breakdown would raise the probability of deeper retracement scenarios. Bitcoin’s direction remains closely tied to liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and broader macro sentiment influencing risk assets. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,800 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $67,500 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $68,000 and $67,500. The price is trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,000 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $68,800 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $68,000 support zone. There was a push below $67,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,255 high. The bears even pushed the price below $65,500. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,500 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $68,000 level. A close above the $68,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,255 high. The next support is now near the $62,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $61,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $60,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $67,500 and $68,000.

The Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 has sparked debate across the crypto market, but recent analysis from BitQuant’s market experts explains why this move was inevitable and necessary. According to the firm, BTC’s sharp decline is not the result of widespread panic or manipulation but rather a natural development in its market structure. The firm explained that the recent local top, which exceeded $126,000, fell short of the expectations needed for healthy growth in the Bitcoin price.  Early Top And Market Liquidation Disrupted Bitcoin Price Structure  In a lengthy post on X, BitQuant reported that its local top for Bitcoin was initially set at $145,000, but this was never reached, leaving the cryptocurrency above $126,000 earlier in October 2025. According to the firm, this earlier-than-expected peak caused a structural failure that prevented the Bitcoin market from building a solid foundation for continued price gains.  Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 On October 10, during the devastating liquidation event, BitQuant noted that a technical issue at Binance had triggered a sudden drop in BTC, from approximately $120,000 to $105,000, adding volatility to its already fragile setup. While some may interpret this Binance issue as manipulation, the crypto company stressed that such events are common in markets, especially in Bitcoin markets. The firm also added that the liquidation and technical error were not significant enough to justify the entire downside that followed.  BitQuant highlighted that the key point is that Bitcoin’s early price top disrupted its natural cycle of distribution and correction, which normally would have allowed its price to consolidate before attempting higher levels. Without a strong base, the market could not sustain strong bullish momentum, creating the bearish conditions that fueled BTC’s retracement toward the $60,000- $62,000 region. In a clean, structural scenario, the company stated that Bitcoin should have reached $145,000, distributed there, experienced a correction of about 25-30%, and then built a strong base before the next price expansion.  New Structure Sets Stage For Future Expansion Although BitQuant has highlighted flaws in Bitcoin’s current market structure, the firm stated that the cryptocurrency has already established a new setup following its decline toward $60,000. The company noted that this updated price structure now supports a continuation toward BTC’s next expansion phase.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin A Better Investment Than Gold? Finance Expert Shares Deep Insights BitQuant further clarified that this is not the start of a new market cycle, but rather a continuation of the cycle that began around $16,000. The firm emphasized that the market’s performance and success in the coming months will depend on whether traders and investors view the next move as a new cycle or a progression of the current one. Although Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 shook the market, the cryptocurrency has since recovered slightly and is trading back above $67,000 at the time of writing. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown  Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market.  Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions.  He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions.  According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating.  Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s violent drawdown into the low-$60,000s has traders hunting for a floor. One of the market’s best-known on-chain analysts is arguing the risk-reward has shifted meaningfully, even if the “bottom” is still a process rather than a single print. James “Checkmate” Check, a former lead Glassnode researcher and now the author of Check On Chain, told What Bitcoin Did host Danny Knowles that once Bitcoin pushed into the $60,000 zone, it entered what he described as “deep value” territory across multiple mean-reversion frameworks, at the same time capitulation-style losses spiked to levels last seen at the 2022 cycle lows. Check’s core framing is blunt: if Bitcoin is headed to zero, none of the models matter. If it’s not, then the statistical setup looks increasingly asymmetric after the selloff. “If Bitcoin is going to zero, been nice playing. It’s been fun […] have fun playing with your bitcoins,” Check said. “If not, then you start looking at the statistics and the odds and go, ‘Well, if Bitcoin recovers, this is kind of a nice place to be. Don’t lose attention now. This is the time to pay attention.’” Related Reading: These Three Catalysts Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Rally, According To Wintermute Check was less interested in pinning the move on a single forced seller than in walking through the market structure that made the slide plausible. IS THE BITCOIN BOTTOM IN? | @_Checkmatey_ We discuss: – The Bitcoin Bear Market – If $60k Is The Bottom – What Caused The Crash – How To Manage The Bear Watch it here: https://t.co/j6OTvdnWFc pic.twitter.com/Z0f1VaKkFd — Danny Knowles (@_DannyKnowles) February 11, 2026 Bitcoin Bottoms Are A Process His conclusion was probabilistic, not declarative. “The odds that we’ve put a bottom in have gone up significantly,” he said, adding later that he’d put the chance the market already set a meaningful low at “more than 50/50 […] probably 60%,” while assigning just “15–20%” odds of a new all-time high in 2026 without a major macro “pivot” or “big print” event. On ETFs, Check cited roughly $7.5 billion in outflows during the drawdown, while arguing the bigger picture looked less like a structural failure and more like positioning unwinds. He said that at around $80,000, roughly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, but noted ETF assets under management were down only mid-single digits (he referenced about 4–6%), and suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade window-dressing rolling off. Check pushed back hard on anchoring to the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” His approach: watch investor behavior first, check the calendar second. “Show me when investors put the bottom in. Show me when investors sell the top,” he said. “I’m going to look at that instead because then I’ll check the date.” Even if the low is in, Check expects the market to revisit it. Bottoms, he argued, tend to form through multiple “capitulation wicks” and then “time pain,” where boredom and lingering fear grind down late-cycle buyers. “If you are formulating a bear case right now, you’re doing it wrong,” he said, framing the current zone as the late innings of the move rather than the start, while still allowing price could go lower. He pointed to two failed all-time-high attempts around October, topping near $126,000, followed by a “shot across the bow” crash on Oct. 10 that he said likely left “bodies out there.” From there, he described a “hodler’s wall” of invested wealth sitting above key levels, with $95,000 as what he called the “bull’s last stand” and argued that once price lost those shelves, downside odds accelerated. A key reference level for him was $80,000, tied to the True Market Mean, a long-term center-of-gravity price that also overlapped with the ETF cost basis in his telling. Once that level broke, he said, the psychological regime changed: “Losing $80,000 was the acceptance phase. Now everyone believes that it’s a bear market. And what bear markets do, they trend lower.” From there, Check argued the market was pulled toward the prior high-volume consolidation zone, roughly the mid-$50,000s to $70,000 range, where a large share of this cycle’s trading volume had previously occurred. He said the selloff itself likely involved leverage blowing up somewhere, but framed that as downstream of a broader shift: when the crowd believes it’s a downtrend, they “sell every rip.” The most concrete “bottoming” signal Check emphasized was the scale of realized losses during the flush. He said capitulation losses ran around $1.5 billion per day, a figure he compared directly to the 2022 bottom and that the sellers were concentrated among recent cohorts: “class of 2025” and “class of 2026” buyers, plus people who bought the $80,000 bear-flag region. He also flagged SOPR printing around minus one standard deviation, which he said has only appeared in two historical contexts: an early “this isn’t a dip” warning, and later near bottoming phases. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K His conclusion was probabilistic, not declarative. “The odds that we’ve put a bottom in have gone up significantly,” he said, adding later that he’d put the chance the market already set a meaningful low at “more than 50/50 […] probably 60%,” while assigning just “15–20%” odds of a new all-time high in 2026 without a major macro “pivot” or “big print” event. On ETFs, Check cited roughly $7.5 billion in outflows during the drawdown, while arguing the bigger picture looked less like a structural failure and more like positioning unwinds. He said that at around $80,000, roughly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, but noted ETF assets under management were down only mid-single digits (he referenced about 4–6%), and suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade window-dressing rolling off. Check pushed back hard on anchoring to the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” His approach: watch investor behavior first, check the calendar second. “Show me when investors put the bottom in. Show me when investors sell the top,” he said. “I’m going to look at that instead because then I’ll check the date.” Even if the low is in, Check expects the market to revisit it. Bottoms, he argued, tend to form through multiple “capitulation wicks” and then “time pain,” where boredom and lingering fear grind down late-cycle buyers. “If you are formulating a bear case right now, you’re doing it wrong,” he said, framing the current zone as the late innings of the move rather than the start, while still allowing price could go lower. At press time, BTC traded at $67,788. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders squinting at charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have tumbled sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback inside a longer uptrend. Others warn the data points to something colder. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K Price Decline And Hard Numbers According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of losses. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 — a reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that net realized losses recently hit over $13 billion, a level that matched the worst stretches of the 2022 slump. In 2024, roughly $10 billion of inflows helped lift market cap. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value shrank. That odd mix of heavy inflows and falling market cap suggests selling pressure is higher than fresh buying. How Rising Prices Are Masking a Quiet Shift in Bitcoin’s Structure “The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition.” – By @xwinfinance Read more ⤵️https://t.co/7soxNoBhqi pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026 Capital Flows Versus Price Action Based on reports, the capital flow numbers are the most awkward fact for bulls. Money moved in, but value fell. Who was selling into that demand? Large holders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks might have taken profits or hedged positions. The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal shrinking realized gains even as prices remained far above prior bear-era levels. That tends to weaken the internal strength of the market over time. Sentiment And Historical Echoes Some traders point to a quirk of memory: high nominal prices make pain feel milder. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access have changed the market’s plumbing, and that gives many confidence. Yet sentiment readings at extreme fear often show up near capitulation points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022 realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means big losses can precede a final low by a long stretch. Technical Patterns And The Bigger Picture Bitcoin posted four consecutive losing months and a 41% decline across that stretch — a streak last seen during 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern matters because similar sequences have led to extended downturns in the past. Related Reading: More Bitcoin Ahead: Saylor, Strategy Commit To Regular BTC Purchases Bitcoin At A Crossroads As XWIN Flags Early Signs Of Crypto Winter For XWIN Research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking. Right now, that balance looks strained. Until inflows begin translating into sustained market cap growth and realized losses cool meaningfully, the firm believes the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not have fully arrived, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s price structure is showing signs of strain, and new data from CryptoQuant shows that fresh capital is no longer entering the market. Instead of the recent drawdown acting as an attraction for buyers, it appears to be triggering withdrawals. This change in liquidity behavior is important, as it indicates that Bitcoin may be transitioning into deeper bear market conditions. Notably, on-chain metrics tracking new liquidity flows are revealing negative cumulative inflows over the past month. Selling Pressure Builds, New Investor Inflows Flip Negative According to a recent analysis that was done on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative new investor flow has dropped to approximately $2.6 billion.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin And The Best Time To Sell This metric was revealed from CryptoQuant’s ‘Bitcoin New Investor Flow’ data, which is revealing that more capital is leaving the ecosystem than entering it. The data shows that the ongoing dip is failing to attract meaningful participation from new buyers. Interestingly, the current reading of this metric is displaying a huge contrast between previous bull phases and current conditions. Large spikes in new money, visible in blue in the chart below, accompanied strong price rallies, particularly in 2017, 2021, and again during the 2024-2025 bull market. Those inflow surges coincided with powerful upside momentum in terms of price action. At present, those spikes are notably absent. Instead, the lower section of the chart is displaying growing red readings due to net capital outflows. The latest print is below zero, which shows that sell-offs are not being absorbed by fresh liquidity. This dynamic matters because markets rely on marginal buyers to sustain higher prices. When new participants step back, price action becomes vulnerable to deeper pullbacks. That is why there is a need for new buyers to absorb the selloffs. Low Liquidity Raises Crash Risks Although liquidity contraction does not automatically guarantee another major crash, it increases fragility of price action. Bitcoin, for one, is still trading below $70,000, although bulls have largely prevented further breakdowns below $60,000. This, in turn, has kept the Bitcoin price trading in a range around $70,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Caught Between Two Liquidity Traps — Which Side Breaks First? However, many crypto analysts are of the notion that Bitcoin could still crash further to lower price levels. Calls for a deeper correction are circulating across trading platforms and social media, with projected bottoms stretching from around $55,000 to as low as $30,000. The absence of inflow spikes suggests that Bitcoin may struggle to regain momentum in the near term. If liquidity continues to dry up, the probability of another significant leg lower before a rebound increases. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $67,160, reflecting a modest 0.3% gain over the past 24 hours. This price behavior is unfolding alongside a slowdown in mining activity due to miners shutting down their systems, which led to the largest mining difficulty drop since 2021. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe.  In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends.  However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.”  This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation.  He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking.  By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency.  In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory.  Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.  Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold.  He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the social media sentiment around Bitcoin has remained deeply bearish despite the recovery that the cryptocurrency’s price has made. Social Media Data Suggests Retail Still Fearful About Bitcoin In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has discussed about how the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin has developed on social media following the recent recovery surge in the asset’s price. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% The Positive/Negative Sentiment refers to an indicator that tells us, as its name suggests, how the positive and negative sentiments related to a given asset compare on the major social media platforms. The metric works by putting social media posts/threads/messages containing mentions of the asset through a machine-learning model to differentiate between positive and negative comments. Then, it counts up the number of posts in each category and finds their ratio. When the value of the indicator is greater than 1, it means the asset is observing more bullish messages than bearish ones. On the other hand, the metric being under this threshold implies the dominance of a negative sentiment. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the last few months: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment rose to a notable level when the asset saw its rally in January. This suggests that retail traders on social media became greedy. What eventually followed the market greed was a top in the cryptocurrency and a reversal to the downside. As this drawdown took BTC back to the $60,000 level, the Positive/Negative Sentiment plummeted, meaning that fear now dominated social media platforms. Just like how the greedy sentiment led into a top, this bearish mentality paved way for a rebound instead. This is a pattern that has been witnessed with digital asset markets time and time again, with prices tending to move against the expectations of the crowd. Interestingly, even though BTC has climbed back into the high $60,000 levels since its low, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has continued to be at low levels. “Historically, while FUD is high, price rebounds have a heightened probability,” noted the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin will develop in the near future, given the current bearish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Giant Awakens: 2,043 BTC Moved After 7-Year Slumber In some other news, the stablecoin market cap has dipped recently, as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has highlighted in an X post. Edwards has pointed out that the stablecoin market cap has historically only fallen in bear markets. If the recent trajectory of the combined USDT and USDC market cap is to go by, capital may once again be leaving this side of the sector. BTC Price Bitcoin recovered above $70,000 earlier, but the coin has since retraced a bit as its price is now trading around $67,700. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is printing on-chain loss-taking on a scale last seen during the Luna/UST meltdown, but at a radically different price point, a distinction that changes what the signal likely means for this drawdown. Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss has sunk deep into negative territory, with the 7-day moving average falling to -$1.99 billion on Feb. 7 before improving slightly to -$1.73 billion by Feb. 10. That places the current regime among the most severe loss-dominant stretches on record. Adler described it as “the second deepest negative reading in the entire history of observations,” exceeded only by June 18, 2022, when the metric hit -$2.24 billion amid the Luna/UST crash and cascading liquidations. The key detail, Adler argues, is persistence. Net Realized Profit/Loss has stayed below roughly -$1.7 billion for five consecutive days, forming what he framed as a sustained cluster of seller pressure, the kind of multi-day compression that typically marks capitulation behavior rather than a single shock print. In Adler’s framing, the mechanic is straightforward: realized losses are dominating realized profits on moved coins, and the market is working through the supply owned by participants forced or willing to sell below their cost basis. Related Reading: These Three Catalysts Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Rally, According To Wintermute “The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” he wrote. “The key reversal trigger is the return of Net Realized Profit/Loss above zero, which would signal the market’s transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. As long as the metric remains in deeply negative territory, seller pressure persists.” Bitcoin Losses Match Luna Crash Scale The companion chart, Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA), shows realized losses rising to about $2.3 billion on Feb. 7 and holding near that level through Feb. 10, another rarity in historical context. Adler called it “one of the highest smoothed levels in the entire history of observations,” explicitly comparing it to June 2022. He also emphasized that the 7-day smoothing understates peak stress in real time. At the height of the 2022 episode, Adler noted, single-day losses were roughly three times higher than the weekly-smoothed figure. In the current window, he pointed to a single-day realized loss of $6.05 billion on Feb. 5, the second-largest one-day loss in Bitcoin’s history, according to his note. The headline comparison, however, is not just magnitude but setting. In 2022, a similar realized-loss regime occurred with bitcoin trading around $19,000. This time, Adler says, the losses are being crystallized around $67,000 after a pullback from $125,000, a context he frames as a correction that is flushing out late entries rather than an ecosystem-wide failure cascade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Chart Screams 2022 Bear Market, Until You Notice What’s Missing “Back then, Realized Loss at $2.7B was occurring at a price of $19K,” Adler wrote. “Now, comparable loss volumes are being locked in at a price of $67K, which suggests not a systemic crash but rather a flushing out of late bull-cycle entries. This is capitulation of local top buyers, not a fundamental loss of network value.” Adler’s playbook puts two markers front and center. The first is a sustained move of Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) back above zero for multiple weeks, which he frames as the transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. The second is a decline of Realized Loss (7DMA) below $1 billion, which would indicate that the wave of forced or pain-driven selling is fading. The risk, in his view, is that the market’s “cleansing stress” shifts into something more final if price weakness compounds. Adler flagged the sub-$60,000 area as a line where continued growth in realized losses alongside further price decline could turn a correction into “full-blown capitulation”, not because the current prints are small, but because the regime could extend and deepen. For now, Adler’s core claim is that Bitcoin is producing Luna-sized loss signals without Luna-like structural damage. Same order of magnitude on-chain, different story in the tape. At press time, BTC traded at $67,924. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com