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A crypto analyst has announced that Bitcoin (BTC) has hit its last bull trap, signaling that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency could fall much further before a potential reversal begins. The analyst has shared a chart highlighting key accumulation areas at levels below $60,000, the lowest price BTC has reached since its all-time high in 2025. Bitcoin Reaches Final Bull Trap Following Bitcoin’s rebound over the weekend, a pseudonymous whale and crypto analyst known as NoName shared an update on Bitcoin’s latest price action and what its next moves may be. In a post on X, NoName announced that Bitcoin has recently hit its second and final bull trap since reaching a price peak in 2025. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Has Predicted Every Cycle Bottom, But What Is It Saying Now? He shared a video chart showing how the Bitcoin price has moved throughout its ongoing bear market. After a prolonged rally that eventually pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high above $126,700, the market shifted direction and entered a sustained downtrend, marked by multiple corrective waves.  Later during Q1 2026, Bitcoin experienced its first major bull trap. At the time, the price spiked sharply upward, drawing in late buyers and briefly reviving bullish sentiment before quickly reversing and resuming its decline. The move ultimately caught overleveraged traders off guard, leading to significant losses for those who entered near the top. After this initial trap, the price continued to slide and establish lower price levels before forming its latest bull trap this month. Here, BTC surged above $72,000 shortly after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. The rally held for several days, sustaining optimism slightly, before momentum faded and the price retraced back toward the $70,000 level at the time of writing. With this last bull trap in place, NoName has stated that Bitcoin’s path has become clearer. The analyst is now anticipating a final downside flush, suggesting that more volatility and pain could lie ahead for BTC. He projects a potential price crash to $50,000, representing a more than 28% drop from its current price and a drawdown of about 60% from BTC’s peak. Notably, NoName has marked the $50,000 level as a potential accumulation area, and investors and traders could begin entering the market again to prop up their positions.   What’s Next For The BTC Price? Based on NoName’s analysis, the $50,000 level is likely Bitcoin’s final price bottom before a bullish reversal. Once the cryptocurrency hits this accumulation point, the analyst anticipates an upward move to the next re-accumulation area between $75,000 and $85,000. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Has Printed A Historically Aggressive Recovery Setup, What To Expect After consolidating around this range for a bit, NoName projects that Bitcoin could rise sharply to his “mark-up” target between $95,000 and $110,000, before skyrocketing to a new all-time high above $130,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to steady itself after a shaky start to the week. After dipping briefly toward the key $70,000 support level on Sunday, BTC has since bounced back and is now trading above $72,000 on Monday.  However, the next move may depend less on internal crypto dynamics and more on the escalating geopolitical backdrop of tensions between the United States and Iran, and the events that unfold in the days ahead. $100,000 Bitcoin By Year-End In a new report, market analyst Sam Daodu argues that Bitcoin’s direction is closely tied to how the conflict unfolds. Rather than pointing to a single likely outcome, Daodu lays out three scenarios, each with a different implication for oil prices, investor sentiment, and ultimately BTC price action.  Related Reading: Retail Crypto Activity Hits 9-Year Low As Big Money Steps In In Daodu’s bullish scenario, a full peace deal would shift the outlook for both geopolitics and commodities. He suggests oil prices would retreat back toward pre-war levels, roughly in the $65 to $70 per barrel range.  Daodu says that if that happens, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 by year-end, which would translate to a 39% price increase from current trading levels. April 15 Agreement Expectations The base case is more cautious and revolves around what could happen around April 15. Daodu’s view is that if the talks scheduled for that period lead to a new agreement, oil prices might drop below $95 again, similar to what happened after the first ceasefire was announced last week.  Daodu also points to a specific positioning factor: there are reportedly about $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 right now. If oil prices fall quickly and risk sentiment improves fast, those short positions could unwind, triggering a squeeze. That could help drive Bitcoin higher between $75,000 to $80,000. Bear Path For BTC The bearish scenario centers on the ceasefire failing—either because it breaks apart completely or because it expires without a workable outcome.  Daodu notes that the two-week ceasefire is already under strain. With talks having collapsed and a blockade being announced, the agreement is described as “hanging by a thread.”  Related Reading: Ethereum About To Turn? Death Cross Says Bottom Is Closer Than You Think If negotiations fail and oil prices rise above $110 to $120, Daodu says Bitcoin would likely lose the $70,000 support level. From there, the downside path could accelerate, with BTC potentially sliding toward $65,000. If the crisis drags on, he adds that prices could fall further toward $55,000 to $60,000. Even with these three paths laid out, Daodu’s conclusion is that the base prediction is the most realistic outcome at the moment. In his assessment, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound until the next round of talks produces something tangible.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Small investors have all but disappeared from Bitcoin trading. Data from CryptoQuant shows crypto inflows from accounts holding less than one BTC dropped to a record low on Binance earlier this month — the weakest retail participation in nine years. Related Reading: Bessent Presses Congress On Crypto Rules As Senate Clock Ticks Down Wall Street Moves In While Main Street Sits Out The numbers tell a stark story. While everyday investors pull back, major financial institutions are quietly building their crypto positions. Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF. Charles Schwab opened a waitlist for spot Bitcoin trading. Franklin Templeton announced a dedicated crypto division. Fannie Mae began accepting Bitcoin-backed mortgages. The stablecoin market hit an all-time high in capitalization this year. Exodus CEO JP Richardson summed it up bluntly in a post on X. “This might be the first cycle in crypto history where institutions are in a bull market, and retail doesn’t even know it,” he wrote. Richardson pointed out that in the downturns of 2018 and 2022, institutions pulled back alongside regular investors. This time, he said, they did the opposite. This might be the first cycle in crypto history where institutions are in a bull market and retail doesn’t even know it. Stablecoins at $319B. Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF. Schwab opened a waitlist for spot bitcoin trading. Franklin Templeton announced a crypto… — JP Richardson (@jprichardson) April 13, 2026 Cost Of Living Keeps Small Investors On The Sidelines The reason retail is missing isn’t hard to find. MN Fund founder and crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe put it plainly — most people are struggling to cover their monthly bills. Inflation and rising living costs have eaten into the kind of disposable income that once fueled speculative crypto buying. “That’s why this cycle won’t be the retail cycle,” van de Poppe said. “It’s the institutional cycle and will take longer.” Some retail investors who were active in previous cycles may have shifted their money elsewhere. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, a portion of small-account holders appear to have moved into equities and commodities, both of which have posted strong returns recently. It’s super clear that retail isn’t interested in #Crypto. Almost everyone has a hard time paying their bills on a monthly basis. And then spending that amount of money in such a volatile asset? Hell no. That’s why this cycle won’t be the retail cycle. It’s the institutional… — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 12, 2026 Near-Term Outlook Remains Tied To Macro Pressures Sentiment across crypto markets is still shaky. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff said that near-term conditions are “heavily macro-driven, especially by oil, the dollar, and inflation expectations.” Ko stopped short of calling it a structural breakdown in crypto interest. He described current pressure as a macro risk premium rather than fading demand for digital assets. Related Reading: XRP Eyes $17 After Massive Breakout—Is A 1,100% Surge Next? On the medium-term outlook, Ko said he does not expect oil prices to stay elevated given supply and demand fundamentals — a signal he reads as cautiously positive for markets down the road. What’s clear right now is that the usual retail energy that marked past crypto surges is absent. Whether it returns — and when — may depend less on crypto itself than on how much breathing room everyday people get in their finances. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Crypflow has explained what the Bitcoin relief rally above $71,000 means for the leading crypto and hinted that BTC could still drop lower. This came as the analyst alluded to the previous bear markets and how recent rallies are mirroring price action in past cycles. Analyst Warns Relief Rallies Are Getting Weaker Amid Bitcoin’s Rally Above $71,000 In an X post, Crypflow stated that Bitcoin relief rallies are weakening and that every bear market has them. He noted that during the 2014 bear market, BTC saw relief rallies of up to 100% while in 2018, it saw rallies of between 50% and 90%. These relief rallies weakened during the 2022 bear market, as Bitcoin saw relief rallies of only up to 45%.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes ‘Dangerous’ Macro Fractal – What To Expect For Price The Bitcoin relief rallies in this cycle have again weakened, with the largest rally so far 26%. Crypflow noted that each cycle, these relief rallies lose strength, but that doesn’t mean that BTC can’t go higher in the short term. However, he warned that there is still significant resistance above, suggesting the leading crypto could drop further before it finds a bottom.  Bitcoin recently rallied above $73,000 as the U.S.-Iran peace talks took place over the weekend. However, the leading crypto has since retraced to around $71,000 as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down. Trump also announced that the U.S. will impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz following the failed peace talks.  Meanwhile, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated in an X post that Bitcoin will very likely remain in a bear market, despite short-term countertrend rallies. He added that the hardest part of mid-term years is just not believing in every single rally.  A Large Downside Move In The Coming Weeks Crypto analyst Doctor Profit stated that he expects a large downside move in the coming weeks and that it should not take much longer, as the move is very close. The analyst added that he also expects a large trap for bulls, which market makers will use to push Bitcoin lower into the $50,000 range and even further afterward.  Related Reading: Higher Before Lower: How Bitcoin Price Will Get To $240,000 Doctor Profit declared that Bitcoin has not bottomed out and that the only question is how high the relief rally will be before it continues its downward momentum. He stated that the probability of a relief rally to $76,000 before rejection is extremely high. Meanwhile, the probability of a rally to between $79,000 and $84,000 is medium. The analyst also predicted a massive crash for the S&P 500 within the next two months.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price may be showing signs of holding steady, but that alone does not confirm a bottom is in place. A recent post by crypto analyst @CryptoTice_ argues that the current market phase does not yet meet the conditions historically associated with a true Bitcoin price bottom. Instead of focusing on short-term stability, he points to what investors should actually be watching before calling the cycle complete. BTC Price Cycles Suggest A Later Bottom Formation One of the clearest signals highlighted by the analyst is timing within Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle. The chart he shared alongside his analysis compares previous cycles following the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halvings, revealing a consistent structure. In each case, a Bitcoin price bottomed after extended declines and a period of consolidation. Related Reading: XRP Whales Are Rapidly Buying While Retail Is Panicking, Do They Know Something You Don’t? In the current cycle, a key region is identified between roughly 800 and 950 days after the halving, marking the stage where previous cycles began to approach their final lows. This portion of the chart is further reinforced by a vertical marker that aligns this phase more closely with the last quarter of 2026. This timing is significant because it challenges the growing belief that a bottom could form earlier in the year. Historically, there is no clear precedent for a Q1, Q2, or Q3 bottom within this cycle structure. Instead, past patterns consistently show prolonged declines followed by a delayed period of stabilization before the market fully bottoms out. What this means in practical terms is simple: if the cycle remains consistent, the market is still too early. The timing alone suggests that the process of forming a true bottom has not yet fully played out. What To Watch Before Calling The Bottom Timing is only part of the picture. The second, and equally important factor, is market behavior. According to the analysis, bottoms are also defined by how participants react as the market declines. A recurring pattern can be observed across cycles. Price tends to fall first, followed by narratives that attempt to explain the drop. After that comes capitulation, where confidence fades, and weaker participants exit. Only then does a lasting bottom take shape. Related Reading: 2018 Footage Of Ripple CEO Saying They’re Taking Over SWIFT Resurfaces, But How Have They Fared Since Then? Right now, that final phase does not appear to be complete. Market sentiment still shows signs of confidence, with participants buying aggressively and expecting a near-term recovery. This behavior often indicates that the market has not yet reached its lowest point. For investors, the takeaway is clear: rather than focusing solely on whether the price has stopped falling, attention should shift to signs of exhaustion such as declining confidence, rising volatility, and a broader sense of capitulation. Until these conditions align with the later stage of the cycle, the likelihood that the market has already formed a bottom remains low. Ultimately, identifying a Bitcoin price bottom requires alignment between timing and sentiment. Based on both historical patterns and current behavior, those signals are not yet fully in place. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the last week, the Bitcoin bulls looked to have taken control of the price, eventually pushing it back above $73,000 again. There has been a slowdown since then, with bears trying to retest the $70,000 level over the weekend. For now, the bulls are still open, but there is still the possibility that the price will crash again. To that end, the Bitcoin price has an important support level to hold if the bulls are actually going to sustain the uptrend. The Magic Point For Bitcoin Lies At $70,500 After the initial rejection from the range highs, the Bitcoin price is now moving toward a crucial level. According to crypto analyst Max Trades, it is now moving toward the next major support level that bulls must maintain. This level lies just at $70,500, being the major support since the uptrend began. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock Brewing? Whales Step Back As Long-Term Holders Absorb $49B This key support level is important to hold because it will determine whether the uptrend will continue. The range high still lies above $72,000 right now, so that is where the bears are putting up the most resistance. Thus, the price will need to break the range high to continue upward, or break the key support to resume the downtrend. Another major thing that is dragging down the price is the fact that there is still a CME gap that is not filled yet. This CME gap lies below $67,000, making it a magnet for the bears. Given this, if the Bitcoin price ended up breaking the key support at $70,500, then it would start weakening the bullish structure that started to play out last week. Pushing toward the CME gap would mean a break below $67,000, pushing toward $66,000 to make a bottom. However, even this would not determine that it is the bottom of the downtrend, as there is the possibility of a further push down to grab more liquidity. The major liquidity levels lie below $65,000, which is where the whales could push toward to make the most of the move. This means that in the event that the key support is broken, it would only be the start of the trend. The eventual move would be a cascading event that could send it even lower. Related Reading: Ethereum Is About To Go ‘Parabolic’ – Analyst Signals Golden Triangle Formation However, the crypto analyst does explain that the Bitcoin price is not bearish at this time. This is because the price remains range-bound, and trading above the key support level holds it here. “An important point to keep in mind is that BTC is still range bound, and as long as that remains the case, price will mostly be liquidity driven, hunting both sides.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $73,800 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $70,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $72,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $72,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $71,500 and $72,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $72,500 resistance zone. BTC formed a top near $73,800 and started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $72,500 level. The price dipped below the $71,500 and $71,200 levels. A low was formed at $70,517, and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $73,800 swing high to the $70,517 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $72,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $71,500 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level. A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $72,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $73,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $74,000. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,800 level. The first major support is near the $70,500 level. The next support is now near the $70,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $69,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,800, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $70,500, followed by $70,000. Major Resistance Levels – $71,500 and $72,000.

The current price range of Bitcoin may not relay much, but a change in ownership structure is taking place under the surface.  Related Reading: Forget XRP Forecasts: The ‘Delusional’ Crowd Could Have The Last Laugh On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that one cohort of market participants is stepping back from exchange activity at a pace not seen in nearly a year, while another is quietly rebuilding at a scale that demands attention.  Whale Inflows On Binance Fall To Multi-Month Lows The 30-day sum of whale inflows to Binance has fallen massively in recent days, falling to $2.96 billion as of the latest CryptoQuant data, the first reading below $3 billion since June 2025.  The drop in exchange inflow is a departure from the elevated inflow levels that characterized the entire period between February and early March, when the same metric was consistently tracking above $6 billion and briefly touched $8 billion. That detail matters because exchange inflows from whales are an intent to sell or reposition. When these flows begin to dry up, it shows that large players are no longer rushing to offload their supply. BTC- Binance Whale To Exchange Flow   At the same time, long-term holders are rebuilding exposure at scale. This exposure can be seen through the 30-day realized cap change for this group. This metric captures the value of coins being absorbed into long-term storage, and its reading reached as high as $49 billion on April 9.  That contrast is clearly visible in the behavior of short-term holders, whose realized cap change has dropped to -$54 billion. This is the third time since early March that short-term holders have registered losses exceeding $50 billion on a 30-day basis.  This data shows that reactive participants are exiting positions under pressure, while longer-term investors are buying more into that weakness and tightening supply. BTC: STH LTH Net Position Realized Cap The Setup For A Squeeze Is Building Speaking of tightening supply, data from the derivatives market is showing a signal as to how there might be an incoming short squeeze. The impression across derivatives and spot metrics is a market where bearish sentiment has become heavily concentrated in leveraged positions, while physical supply is migrating off crypto exchanges. Funding rates across all major exchanges came in at -0.0118% on April 10 and -0.0101% on April 11, two consecutive sessions of strongly negative readings. Negative funding has become the dominant regime since late March, and throughout April the metric has remained in negative territory without a single positive flip. Bitcoin Funding Rates  The negative funding means short positions are paying longs to maintain their bearish exposure, and short positions are becoming overcrowded. At the same time, open interest climbed from around $21.87 billion on April 6 to $24.37 billion by April 10. Rising open interest alongside persistently negative funding is a characteristic signature of leveraged short accumulation. Meanwhile, spot supply continues to tighten up. Many coins are being moved off crypto exchanges, and exchange netflows recorded about 7,900 BTC in outflows over April 9 and 10 combined. Related Reading: XRP Eyes $17 After Massive Breakout—Is A 1,100% Surge Next? Off-exchange, the 30-day change in OTC desk balances has turned negative, which is a sign that institutions or large buyers are absorbing supply outside of visible market infrastructure. Bitcoin Total OTC Desk Balance Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Dogecoin is flashing renewed signs of weakness as its BTC pair breaks down sharply, dragging the price structure into bearish territory. With momentum fading and key support levels giving way, attention now shifts to confirmation on the USDT pair.  BTC Pair Breakdown Sparks Dogecoin Bearish Bias Umair Crypto’s latest analysis highlights a significant breakdown as the DOGE/BTC pair hit a 68-day low, breaching critical support. While the overall bias is firmly bearish, the USDT pair is still required to trigger a broader sell-off.  Related Reading: Here’s Why The Dogecoin Price Is Under Threat Of Crashing Again The BTC pair continues to show weakness; a slip below 1.57% would mark a fresh 180-day low. Although the USDT pattern remains technically intact for now, the underlying fragility is evident. Market participants are waiting for a confirmed break of the current range to initiate short positions, with primary targets set in the $0.07 region. On-chain data recently showed a whale moving 327 million Dogecoin off Robinhood, sparking a brief 1% relief bounce to $0.092. Despite this localized strength, momentum indicators are faltering across the board. Without a significant catalyst, such as a renewed Elon Musk or government-related initiative, the technical breakdown of the BTC pair is expected to lead the way.  The cooling of previous hype cycles suggests that the path of least resistance is down. Once the USDT support officially breaks, the path will likely clear for a move toward the 7-cent range. Elliott Wave Theory Maps The Bigger Picture In a recent Dogecoin macro update, CG Trades pointed to the explosive 2024 rally, where Dogecoin surged nearly 500% from its lows, delivering a 6x move overall and about a 5x gain from the identified weekly breakout entry. That move marked one of the strongest performances in the altcoin space during the cycle. Related Reading: Dogecoin Stalls Inside The Kumo — Volatility Surge On The Horizon? However, since December 2024, momentum has flipped sharply. Dogecoin has been under pressure, declining alongside the broader altcoin market, in line with earlier warnings of a cooling phase following the euphoric run-up. Examining the broader picture through Elliott Wave Theory, the structure suggests a long-term cycle is unfolding. Wave 1 is seen completing around the January 2018 altcoin peak, followed by Wave 2 in March 2020 after a retest of the long-term trendline. Wave 3 peaked in May 2021, with the market currently either having completed Wave 4 in June 2022 or still finalizing it near the key $0.061349 support zone. From this perspective, the anticipated Wave 5 could drive a major expansion, with a projected target around $1.41, representing a potential 15x move from current levels, or up to 23x if price revisits the $0.061349 region before rallying. However, a monthly close below that level would invalidate the macro bullish outlook and signal a deeper structural shift. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is sitting at a critical turning point after weeks of tight consolidation and repeated tests of key resistance levels. Price action is compressing near a major decision zone, where both bullish breakout potential and downside risk remain in play. With momentum building on both sides, the next decisive move could determine whether BTC breaks into a new expansion phase or slips back into a deeper correction. BTC Enters Key Range High Zone ($73,000–$75,000) According to Cryptorphic, Bitcoin is currently challenging the upper boundary of its established range, pushing into the critical $73,000 and $75,000 zone. This movement follows several weeks of directionless sideways consolidation, marking a significant moment of volatility.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Spikes Above $72,000 On Easing War Tensions, But CPI Threatens Reversal This price range is technically significant because it marks a flip zone where former support levels have become formidable resistance. Price action suggests some hesitation as Bitcoin enters this territory, showing that sellers are active and defending the top of the range. If the price faces a firm rejection at this resistance, Cryptorphic warns of a potential rotation back toward the mid-to-low range, specifically targeting the $65,000 to $63,000 support area. Such a pullback would maintain the ongoing range-bound environment. Conversely, a successful breakout and sustained hold above the $75,000 mark would signal a fundamental shift in market structure, paving the way for a new leg of the bull cycle. For now, the strategy remains simple: closely monitor the reaction at resistance to determine the next major trend. Bitcoin Still Stuck In The Same Range Structure Crypto Patel noted that Bitcoin remains locked within the same broader trading range, with price action still struggling to break above a key structural barrier. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading below Bearish Order Block 1, which sits between $76,000 and $79,000, a zone that has repeatedly acted as strong resistance and continues to cap upward momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Deviated From The Bearish Trend That Began In January And $86,000 Could Be Next Each approach toward this zone has shown signs of hesitation, indicating that sellers are still actively defending it and preventing a clean breakout. If buyers manage to push Bitcoin above this range, the next major upside target is the Bearish Order Block 2, located between $86,000 and $90,000. A move like this would suggest strengthening bullish momentum and could mark the beginning of a broader structural shift in market direction. However, if BTC fails to break and hold above $76,000–$79,000, the risk remains tilted to the downside. In that scenario, the market could lose key support and open up the possibility of a deeper correction, potentially extending below $50,000. For now, all eyes remain on Order Block 1, as this zone is expected to decide Bitcoin’s next major move. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing an uncomfortable comparison to one of the most brutal sell-offs in its history, and at least one analyst believes the worst may still be ahead.  This technical outlook is looking at the current price action as a mirror of the 2022 macro fractal sequence that sent Bitcoin from $69,000 to a cycle low near $15,500, implying that the current cycle could see a similar drop. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Hype Hits Ceiling, Sharp Drop Risk Emerges: Analyst A 2022 Repeat? The Fractal That Raises Concerns Crypto analyst philarekt posted a warning on X this week, identifying what he described as “the most dangerous macro fractal” currently playing out in Bitcoin’s price structure. The technical case rests on a side-by-side comparison of two weekly Bitcoin charts: the 2021 to 2023 cycle on the left and the current cycle on the right. In the 2021 chart, Bitcoin reached a peak price above $69,000 and proceeded to form a 3-tap structure, which are three distinct lower highs arranged within a descending channel, each bounce rejected before a final capitulation leg lower. The price ultimately fell 34% from the final tap to the absolute cycle bottom in a move that caught many market participants off-guard. The current chart, with a cycle peak at $126,000 in October 2025, shows the same architecture forming in almost identical proportion. Both the 2022 and 2026 panels show Bitcoin respecting a slanted resistance line at the top while gradually falling within a downward channel. Each bounce fails to break out, and eventually the price has created successive lower lows. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @philarekt On X What Happens If The Fractal Completes? The weekly RSI, which tracks momentum, is following the same pattern observed in 2022. Lastly, there’s a moving average death cross on the Bitcoin price chart, where the short-term average has crossed below a long-term average.  This death cross appeared in early March when the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed below the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). An equivalent 50/200 SMA death cross appeared in 2022 after Bitcoin was already down 58% from its high, and the cryptocurrency then declined a further 46% before finding a bottom. If the sequence continues to play out as outlined, Bitcoin could be heading to a final capitulation move into the range between $40,000 and $50,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,756, up by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. The projected decline is taken directly from the 2022 template: a 34% decline from the current price zone would place the Bitcoin price within that range. Related Reading: Cardano In Danger Zone? Trader Drops ‘Time Bomb’ Claim However, the outlook is not entirely bearish after that scenario. The same fractal that points to a breakdown also points to what comes next. The capitulation in 2022 led the transition into accumulation that built the foundation for the next bull cycle. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price went into the weekend firing on all cylinders after the release of weaker-than-expected inflation data in the United States. Interestingly, an analyst has come forward with data and a fresh angle on the influence of the US on BTC and the general cryptocurrency market. US Institutional Players: Major Catalysts Behind BTC’s Latest Rally Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed in a post on the social media platform X that the Coinbase Premium Index has been a major indicator steering the Bitcoin price over the past two years. The Coinbase Premium Index is an on-chain metric that measures the difference between the BTC price on the US-based Coinbase exchange (USD pair) and the global Binance exchange (USDT pair). Related Reading: Why A Bitcoin Price Breakdown To $50,000 Could Be Important For Long-Term Bullishness Typically, when the metric’s value increases or moves into the positive territory, it implies rising demand from US investors, who are willing to pay more than other global investors to purchase the flagship cryptocurrency. On the other hand, the Coinbase Premium Index falling below the zero mark means that US investors are buying less than investors in other parts of the world. Ultimately, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index offers insight into the sentiment of US investors (mainly institutional players) and how it differs from that on global exchanges like Binance. According to Kesmeci, this indicator has a direct relationship with the Bitcoin price, suggesting that US investor demand plays a huge role in the BTC market dynamic. The analyst wrote on X: Looking at the chart, this relationship is quite clear: during periods when the index stayed positive, Bitcoin rose from 41K to 126K, while in periods when it turned negative, it declined from 126K down to the 60K range. Kesmeci noted that this trend can be seen in the the recent price action, as the “easing of the  negative pressure” in the Coinbase Premium Index has sparked the positive rally seen by the Bitcoin price. After the index turned positive over the past few days, the price of BTC followed with a run up to above $73,000. The analyst published further data to show that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premiun Index are quite green on an hourly basis. “We can confirm with data that the locomotive carrying Bitcoin from 66K to 73K is the positive sentiment of US investors (especially whales),” Kesmeci concluded in the follow-up post. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $73,330, reflecting an over 1% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Is XRP Safer Than Bitcoin? This Analyst Explains The Real Quantum Risk For Holders Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin might trade around the clock, but its liquidity doesn't anymore. The asset that was supposed to become more resilient after absorbing billions in institutional capital through ETFs has instead developed a split personality, one that looks deep and orderly during New York trading hours and considerably more fragile once Wall Street's desks go dark. […]
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Bitcoin traders are rebuilding bets on a move toward $80,000 as easing geopolitical tensions, firmer institutional demand, and a rebound above $70,000 revive appetite for upside exposure after weeks of defensive positioning. On Coinbase-owned Deribit, the largest venue for crypto options, the $80,000 call has become the single biggest strike by open interest this week, […]
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Over the years, there have been different metrics, technicals, and ways in which investors have tried to predict the Bitcoin price bottom with each bear market. Some of these have reportedly done so with some accuracy, while others have seen a deviation. Recently, a pseudonymous crypto analyst who goes by @cryptocupra on the X (formerly Twitter) platform has shared their own bottom prediction, using a 23-Bar Theory. How Bitcoin Bottoms Go In The Past In the post shared on the social media platform, the crypto analyst explained that there have been 23 bars that have predicted the bottom of each Bitcoin bear cycle. Apparently, these 23 bars have been accurate over the last three cycles, and thus, could end up predicting another bottom this time around. Related Reading: Ethereum Ascending Channel Puts Price At $5,700, Analyst Reveals When To Sell The analyst explains this theory using the Bitcoin 1-month chart, showing how many monthly bars it takes until the bottom is in. Going deep into the past, the crypto analyst points out the first iteration of this 23-bar theory taking place back in the 2014 bear market. This 23-month period, approximately 2 years, is shown in the analysis to be an expansion phase, often acting as a launchpad for the price into the next bull market. Counting out the monthly closes, it shows that there was a total of 23 monthly bar closes before the bottom was in. Following this, the Bitcoin price rebounded, and this move inevitably led to the beginning of the next bull market cycle. Then again, the crypto analyst says this repeats itself in the 2018 bull market. Like in 2014, there were a total of 21-23 monthly bars, and once these were complete, the crypto analyst says the bottom was in, and then the next rally began. The most recent of these iterations was back in the 2022 bear market, where the analyst once again points out this theory. They explain that the Bitcoin price saw the same 23 bars before the bottom was in and the 2024-2025 rally began in the months that followed. Related Reading: Recent Developments Show Why The Shiba Inu Price Keeps Crashing Now, in 2026, the analyst believes that this trend is set to repeat itself again. If this is the case, then it means that the bottom is in and that Bitcoin has now entered into an expansion phase within the 23 bars. If this follows, then it could mark the bottom and begin the start of another bull market. According to the crypto analyst, history doesn’t lie, and thus, the BTC price is set to go parabolic again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has been trading inside a major cost-basis cluster recently, and the latest rally hasn’t taken it past the range either. Bitcoin URPD Shows Significant Supply Has Cost Basis Near Current Levels In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the latest data for the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) of Bitcoin. This on-chain indicator tells us about the amount of BTC that was last purchased at the various price levels visited by the cryptocurrency in its history. Related Reading: Top Toncoin Whales Silently Accumulate 189,730 TON Despite Market Weakness Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows how the URPD of Bitcoin is looking right now. As is visible in the graph, there are some levels near to the current spot price with a notable amount of supply last purchased according to the URPD. Naturally, the investors holding coins with a cost basis at one of these levels below the latest price would be in some profit right now, while those above would be underwater. However, the latest price surge has meant that the majority of investors inside this cluster are now in the green. From the chart, it’s visible that this supply zone sits between $63,100 and $73,200. Following the rally back above $72,000, BTC has climbed toward the end of this range, but hasn’t yet exited it. Generally, investors who are in loss tend to react to a retest of their cost basis by selling, as they may fear going back underwater. Profitable hands, on the other hand, may accumulate more at their cost basis to defend it. Referring to the cluster between $63,100 and $73,200, the analyst noted: This is where millions of holders “voted” on the price. As long as we trade within this range, these investors are psychologically incentivized to defend their buy-in. Beyond the range, supply is relatively thin on the URPD until $82,000. While this means that Bitcoin won’t find much support at those levels, it also implies that resistance from investors exiting at their cost basis could also be relatively low. Though, it only remains to be seen how price action will unfold in the coming days and whether the cryptocurrency will venture past the range. Related Reading: Zcash Breaks Out With 34% Surge—Is $440 The Next Target? In another X post, Martinez also talked about the URPD for Ethereum, the digital asset second largest by market cap. As is visible in the below chart, ETH has major clusters at $2,079 and $1,882. After the latest price recovery, Ethereum is floating above both of these levels. “If the price drops below these levels, millions of holders at $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089 will likely defend their original “buy-in” price, creating a new floor,” explained the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall since Tuesday as its price is still trading around $72,400. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again hovering around a critical zone near $70,000, with price action tightening as bulls and bears fight for control. A strong hold above this region may fuel further upside, but any weakness could quickly open the door to a fresh wave of downside pressure. BTC Holds Near $70,000 As Market Awaits Direction Bitcoin continues to stabilize within the $70,000 territory, maintaining a significant presence in this psychologically important zone. According to analyst Kamile Uray, the $70,467 level has emerged as a vital anchor on the 4-hour chart. As long as the price action remains consistently above this mark, the path remains to the upside in the short term. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Has Printed A Historically Aggressive Recovery Setup, What To Expect The digital asset has recently tested a significant resistance zone at the $74,000 mark. A successful close above this level, followed by a break beyond the $76,000 peak, would serve as a powerful catalyst for further gains. Such a move would clear the remaining overhead supply and allow the current rally to extend its reach toward higher price targets. Furthermore, achieving a 4-hour close above the $79,000 threshold would mark a definitive milestone for the current trend. This price action would represent the attainment of the first major high, signaling that the broader uptrend is firmly intact.  From a broader perspective, the daily chart indicates that the $65,666 level is the most critical support to watch. While staying above this floor keeps the bullish outlook alive, a rejection at resistance followed by a close below $65,666 would shift focus to lower support clusters between $63,823 and $60,000. Ultimately, a daily close below $60,000 would be a major bearish signal, potentially leading to a much deeper market correction. Pivot Shift Incoming: Market Bias Set To Flip Within Weeks In a recent technical update, crypto analyst Killa suggested that the prevailing market narrative is approaching a significant turning point. According to the data, the current sentiment surrounding the market pivot is expected to undergo a total reversal within the next 1-2 weeks.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Range Analysis: Leverage Delta Flipping Signals Instability Regarding immediate price action, the analyst identifies the $73,000 mark as a critical threshold for Bitcoin’s short-term direction. If price action remains capped below this level, the most likely outcome is a continued descent toward the $68,000 support zone.  An alternative scenario involves a potential sweep of external liquidity, where Bitcoin could spike toward the $76,000 highs before facing a sharp rejection back into its previous trading range. Regardless of whether the move is a direct drop or a final liquidity grab, Killa emphasizes that any upside move occurring around this date is likely to be retraced. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin surged above the $72,000 level as easing geopolitical tensions sparked a wave of optimism across global markets. The move triggered a sharp rally, clearing key liquidity levels and pushing BTC higher in a short period, with momentum largely driven by headline sentiment rather than underlying structural strength. Will CPI Confirm The Breakout Or Trigger Reversal? Bitcoin reclaimed the $72,000 level following headlines that Israel has agreed to talks with Lebanon, triggering a sharp move higher and sweeping a major liquidity cluster sitting above recent highs. Crypto trader Max Trades has stated on X that this move pushed BTC up roughly 7% over the past three days, and was largely driven by the news.  Related Reading: This Key Bitcoin Metric Suggests That Current Downside Action Will Continue However, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data around the corner, the market is heading straight into a major volatility event. Max pointed out that pumps like this into key events occurring right before high-impact macro releases rarely tend to hold. An investor known as Columbus on X has also noted that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of weakness despite recent attempts to push higher. Using Hyblocks heatmaps, the data reveal that the price action remains heavy with no real acceptance above the $72,000 supply zone. Thus, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside until BTC can sustain acceptance back above the $72,000 zone. On the downside, liquidity pools around $68,000 to 69,000 remain the primary target for continuation. What A Drop In Profit Supply Signals For The Market The current state of the Bitcoin market is revealing a deeper shift under the surface. A verified author for CryptoQuant Darkfost highlighted that the BTC profit supply has dropped to levels typically associated with bear market conditions. Only about 59% of the BTC total supply remains in profit, a level close to what was observed during the last bear market.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Has Printed A Historically Aggressive Recovery Setup, What To Expect Currently, nearly 1 BTC out of every 2 is being held at a loss. Historically, the average bull sits at around 75% of supply in profit, which places the market well below its typical levels. Darkfost explained that while this may seem counterintuitive, the market needs investors in profit to sustain a positive momentum.  According to the data, the 50% level appears to be a key threshold. Although the market hasn’t reached that level yet, the past cycles show that bear market bottoms often form around this area. This trend is crucial as it will help assess when losses of profits become significant across the market. Thus, the strategy remains consistent accumulation when losses reach extreme levels, allowing investors to position ahead of the majority. On the flip side, when profit supply approaches 100%, it often signals overheated conditions where reduced exposure is more favorable. Despite the pressure, the current environment appears more conducive to accumulation than to selling. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Attention has again been drawn to the popular trader James Wynn, who went from a high of almost $100 million in profits to less than $1000 in his Hyperliquid account at the moment. The trader continues to trade Bitcoin and was recently liquidated as the market recovered.  Popular Bitcoin Trader Who Went From Almost $100 Million To Below $1,000 HypurrScan data shows that popular Bitcoin trader James Wynn’s account has gone from a peak of $84.21 million in May 2025 to $914.21 at the moment. The trader gained prominence for reaching a $84 million peak in just over two months after he began trading on the decentralized exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid.  Related Reading: Here’s Why The Hyperliquid Price Is Exploding Again The trader stacked these profits through high-leveraged bets, including betting on Bitcoin. A major highlight of the trader’s journey was building a $1.25 billion BTC position by going long with 40x leverage on the leading crypto. This was one of the largest Bitcoin positions at the time, which drew more attention to the trader.  That position was eventually liquidated, and since then, the Bitcoin trader has lost up to $100 million on his positions. Further data from HypurrScan data show that he currently has a loss of $22 million all-time PnL (Profit and Loss) on Hyperliquid. Wynn was notably a bull as his trading profits on Hyperliquid climbed to a peak of $84 million.  However, since the crash in his trading profits, the trader’s sentiment toward Bitcoin has continued to flip. Towards the end of last year, he became largely bearish on BTC, rightly predicting that the leading crypto would suffer a long-term downtrend. Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. Earlier this year, in February, Wynn predicted that BTC would still drop to as low as $48,000 in this bear market.  More Liquidations Amid Bearish Sentiment On-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed that James Wynn was recently liquidated on his Bitcoin position as the crypto market recovered amid the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The trader had shorted Bitcoin just below $67,000 and got liquidated as the price hit $67,900. Lookonchain noted that the trader has been liquidated six times in just the past two weeks.  Related Reading: Crypto Trader Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Hit $100,000 Again When This Happens Wynn had mainly been shorting Bitcoin while the leading crypto traded in the $67,000 range. However, the leading crypto has yet to make a new low, holding the $66,000 support, and has instead rebounded above the psychological $70,000 level since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. HypurrScan data show that the trader has not opened a new position since the ceasefire agreement.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $72,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has shared two interesting scenarios she believes that the Bitcoin price could follow, depending on the direction of its next moves. According to the analyst, a price breakdown to new lows near $50,000 could be bullish for BTC, suggesting the cryptocurrency may reverse to the upside after hitting that bottom. On the other hand, she has also shared a bearish thesis which could see the flagship cryptocurrency extending its already prolonged downtrend.  A Possible Bullish Scenario For The Bitcoin Price Crypto market analyst Tara has presented a price chart outlining a detailed roadmap for Bitcoin, depending on if it breaks upwards or downwards. At the moment, the cryptocurrency is trading sideways with no clear direction, despite its latest rebound. Tara has described this recent bounce above $71,000 as “noise,” noting that it has done nothing to make the cryptocurrency’s path clearer.  At the time of her analysis, posted on X, Tara stated that Bitcoin is sitting at a major decision zone, right in the middle of the macro 0.382 Fibonacci resistance at $98,096 and the 0.5 Fibonacci support area at $93,038. For her bullish outlook, the analyst predicts that BTC needs to break the 0.382 resistance level for the cryptocurrency’s mid- or long-term price targets to become more visible.  In her price chart, the analyst outlines an ABC pattern that shows where Bitcoin could move next, along with its upper price targets once the resistance is broken. If the cryptocurrency breaks below the 0.618 support at $69,891 to reach $50,000, Tara forecasts that Bitcoin could eventually gather enough bullish momentum to break past the bearish $93,200 resistance.  Once this happens, Tara projects that Bitcoin could explode to a new all-time high above its current peak of around $126,000, officially ending its downtrend. Although she has shared an alternative bearish thesis, the analyst notes that the ATH breakout is her preferred and most likely scenario for Bitcoin right now.  The Alternative Downside Path Alternatively, Tara warns that if Bitcoin rallies above $90,000 without a meaningful correction, it could set the stage for a sharp price crash. Supporting her bearish outlook, the analyst points to the same ABC pattern on the chart, which outlines a clear downward trajectory for BTC.  The analyst noted that a breakout to the upside would align with the larger ABC structure, potentially driving Bitcoin toward the upper resistance at $93,200. However, she maintains a strong bearish mid-term outlook, warning that such a move could prolong the ongoing corrective phase.  According to her projections, the next major downside target lies around $29,000, marking a significant cycle low and representing a drop of over 68% from the previous $93,200 resistance and an approximately 55% decline from its current price above $71,500.   Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Gold has quietly outrun Bitcoin by a wide margin — and one Wall Street analyst says that gap tells the real story of where markets are headed. Related Reading: XRP Faces No Immediate Quantum Threat As Only 0.03% Supply Seen At Risk: Analyst Bitcoin’s ETF Gains Pale Against Gold’s Run Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in early 2024, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust helped push Bitcoin’s price up roughly 50%. Gold, over the same stretch, climbed about 135%. That performance gap is central to the argument being made by Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who says capital may already be moving away from high-risk assets toward safer ground. McGlone has been laying out his case through a series of posts on X, warning that the explosive run Bitcoin made past $100,000 following the arrival of spot ETFs may now be over. Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,000. McGlone’s downside target is $10,000. Getting there would require a drop of more than 86%. Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped push the price above $100,000 and may guide reversion back toward $10,000. What’s notable from my graphic is the first-born crypto reaching an apex in 2025 alongside US stock market… pic.twitter.com/LCKF213Ss4 — Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 9, 2026 Peak Cycle, Not A New Era McGlone traces Bitcoin’s 2025 high of $126,200 to a specific moment in broader market history. At roughly the same time Bitcoin hit that peak, the US stock market’s total value relative to the country’s gross domestic product reached its highest point since 1928 — a ratio widely used to judge whether equities are overpriced. According to McGlone, that overlap is not a coincidence. He describes the conditions that drove Bitcoin’s rise as a mix of ETF-driven inflows, political tailwinds from US President Donald Trump’s embrace of crypto, and what he calls “peak beta” — a phase where speculative assets briefly surge before falling hard. Reports from his analysis suggest this combination created the conditions for a sharp reversal rather than a sustained bull run. Bitcoin is also about four times more volatile than the S&P 500, according to McGlone’s data, which he says makes it a difficult sell for institutional investors who weigh returns against risk. Capital Rotation Raises Questions About Bitcoin’s Role The S&P 500, on a risk-adjusted basis, has outperformed Bitcoin ETFs since their debut. McGlone points to that as a sign the ETF launch may have served more as a late-cycle catalyst than a structural turning point for the asset class. Based on his analysis, the phase he calls “pump then dump” — where prices spike and then reverse — may already be underway. If that reading is correct, Bitcoin could fall alongside other speculative assets while gold continues to attract investors looking for stability. Related Reading: XRP Eyes $17 After Massive Breakout—Is A 1,100% Surge Next? McGlone stops short of saying exactly when a drop to $10,000 would occur. His argument is framed around broader market conditions tightening and investors pulling back from risk, not a specific timeline. What he does say clearly is that the ETF boom, once seen as a long-term driver for Bitcoin, may have already done most of its work. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Market expert Sam Daodu has released a new April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), flagging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic forces as the decisive factors for where prices may go next.  Daodu’s note comes after Bitcoin ran into resistance just above roughly $72,000 and amid a market environment that has produced the asset’s first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022. Bitcoin Faces Unusual April Daodu pointed to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to finish April in the black: since 2013, the token has closed the month higher nine times out of 13, a 69% win rate.  On paper, April looks generous — the average return sits at 10.7% — but that mean is skewed by a handful of outsized years (2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020), each with gains above 28%. Strip out those extreme outliers, and the average April return falls to a subdued 0.7%.  More representative measures show Bitcoin’s median April gain at 7.1%, with the best April on record in 2013 (+36.8%) and the worst in 2022 (−17.2%). These historical ranges, Daodu says, demonstrate how much April outcomes depend on the broader macro backdrop. Related Reading: Adam Back Denies Being Bitcoin Creator In Response To NYT: ‘I Am Not Satoshi’ What makes April 2026 unusual, Daodu argues, is the dominance of external macro and geopolitical drivers that were largely absent in prior years. The ongoing US–Iran conflict has kept oil prices elevated — above $100 since early March — and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%.  Those developments have knocked back expectations for near‑term rate cuts and left markets braced for higher rates into the second quarter. Taken together, tighter liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk create a tougher environment for risk assets, including BTC. Under these conditions, Daodu warns, the usual early‑April dip and subsequent rebound are no longer assured. Rather, three key elements will determine Bitcoin’s future.  Whether oil drops below $90 per barrel, whether monetary expectations ease, and whether the US-Iran ceasefire persists and leads to a lasting deal.  Three Possible Paths Daodu lays out three price scenarios to quantify how those outcomes could play out. In his bullish case, a genuine ceasefire coupled with oil prices falling below $90 would significantly relieve macro pressure. That relief, he says, could allow Bitcoin to clear resistance above $75,000 and propel a run toward $80,000. Progress on the CLARITY Act — legislative movement expected to be marked up in late April — would add fuel to that rally by improving regulatory clarity for digital assets. Related Reading: JPMorgan CEO Says Bank Must Build Its Own Blockchain To Counter Crypto Threats His base case envisions a more muted month. Persistent tax‑related selling in early April could cap gains and keep BTC trading between about $68,000 and $76,000. Without a clear catalyst, such as an end to the conflict, Bitcoin would likely consolidate in that band. The bearish scenario involves a breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed escalation. In that event, Daodu says Bitcoin could lose its nearby support around $69,000, trigger liquidations of leveraged positions, and see short‑term holders exit.  That pressure could send BTC toward $65,000 or lower; the expert notes that Standard Chartered has warned of a deeper slump toward $50,000 if macro conditions deteriorate substantially. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A dispute over stablecoin rewards — not sweeping disagreements about crypto itself — is what’s holding up one of the most significant digital asset bills in US history. Related Reading: XRP Faces No Immediate Quantum Threat As Only 0.03% Supply Seen At Risk: Analyst Banks And Crypto Firms Clash Over Stablecoin Yields At the center of the standoff is a narrow but contentious question: should third-party firms like Coinbase be allowed to pass stablecoin yields on to their customers? Banks say no, warning it could drain deposits from traditional financial institutions. Crypto companies say yes, arguing it’s essential to staying competitive. That single point of friction has stalled the CLARITY Act in the Senate for months, even as the Trump administration pushes hard for a vote. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went public Tuesday with a blunt message — Congress needs to move now, before Senate floor time runs out. According to reports, Bessent described the situation as urgent, saying “time is scarce, and now is the time to act.” He framed the legislation not just as a financial policy matter but as a national security concern, arguing that economic security and national security are one and the same. The U.S. Treasury Secretary is weighing in on the push to pass crypto market structure legislation in a new @WSJ op-ed.@SecScottBessent framed it as a national priority, saying “economic security is national security,” and argued the Clarity Act is the cornerstone to bringing… — Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) April 9, 2026 Adoption Numbers Add Weight To The Push The case for urgency isn’t just political. Data shows that roughly one in six Americans already holds some form of digital asset. Major banks and financial institutions have either launched crypto-related products or applied to do so. Blockchain technology, according to Bessent, has worked its way into payments, settlements, and the trading of real-world assets at a scale that regulators can no longer ignore. The global crypto market swung between $2 trillion and $3 trillion in value over the past year alone — a range that reflects both the size and the volatility of the industry. That backdrop gives the push for a regulatory framework added weight, especially as traditional finance continues to wade deeper into the space. Senator Cynthia Lummis joined Bessent’s call, saying the conditions for passing the CLARITY Act are as good as they’ve ever been. “We have the administration, the momentum, and we’ve made bipartisan progress,” she said. A Senate markup of the bill is expected sometime in April, though similar deadlines have slipped before. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Quantum Risk As Bernstein Sees 3–5 Year Window For Upgrades White House Study Adds Fuel To Banking Debate A White House analysis recently found that the risk of deposit flight from allowing stablecoin rewards is, by its own description, “quantitatively small.” Under the GENIUS Act framework, stablecoin issuers are barred from paying yields directly. The CLARITY Act, however, would open the door for third-party distributors to do it instead. Some banking members pushed back on the White House findings, arguing the analysis overlooked key funding risks beyond deposit levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is back above $70,000 after a bruising first quarter, but there are still questions as to whether the asset has already established its cycle low or is still moving through a bottoming phase. A technical indicator following one interesting Bitcoin metric is presently showing signs that the bottom may not yet be in. The Metric With A Perfect Record One Bitcoin metric has always predicted every cycle bottom, and what it is saying now is very important for its next outlook. This metric is the long-term holder supply in loss, which is a measure that tracks how much of the supply held by long-term investors is underwater at current prices. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To $80,000: How The February Bullish Trend Can Push It 20% Higher Long-term holders are Bitcoin addresses who have held their coins for at least 155 days, and so it captures how deeply underwater the most patient cohort of the market has become.  The numbers, which were noted in an analysis by crypto analyst Ardi, show that whenever long-term holders fall into losses in significant numbers, it has always occurred near the end of bear markets. These are phases where selling pressure decreases as weaker hands exit, and only the most committed investors are left. During the 2015 cycle bottom, 53% of long-term holder supply was in loss. A similar pattern appeared at the 2018 low, where about 45% of long-term holdings were in loss. The trend repeated once more during the 2022 bottom, with the figure reaching around 44%. b The current long-term holder supply in Loss reading sits at approximately 29% and it is climbing. That figure is meaningful in two directions simultaneously. On one hand, it confirms that conditions are deteriorating and there’s still a large share of holders that would move into loss if prices decline further.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Deviated From The Bearish Trend That Began In January And $86,000 Could Be Next On the other hand, the reading is still well short of the 44% to 53% range that has always been certified as genuine cycle floors. According to crypto analyst Ardi, this second meaning shows that the Bitcoin price is not at the bottom yet but is still building toward the conditions where bottoms form.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,127, down by 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Its most recent cycle low was recorded just below $63,000 during the market-wide crash in early February. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading around $70,000, which has turned out to be a psychologically important area.  The broader crypto market sentiment is currently lacking any clear bullish momentum, with price action across major assets reflecting hesitation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a reading of 43, placing it firmly in neutral territory. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto markets are showing early signs that the worst may be over, following a prolonged decline that began with the industry’s sharp sell-off back in October of last year.   In a new report shared on social media, technical analyst Ali Martinez says the market is now starting to form what he calls a structural floor. Next Cycle Setup For Crypto Leaders Martinez’s view is rooted in the idea that seven months of heavy volatility may also be creating a rare opportunity. For those focused on the longer-term picture, he argues, the current turbulence can act as a reset period before the next multi-year cycle.  Rather than treating the current sell-off as purely negative, Martinez suggests it may be setting up the conditions for a new upward phase once the market stops bleeding. Related Reading: Adam Back Denies Being Bitcoin Creator In Response To NYT: ‘I Am Not Satoshi’ When looking at the “big picture” for broader crypto market structure, Martinez points to a metric he says helps define the floor: the CVDD Channel, which stands for Cumulative Value Days Destroyed.  According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s “Golden Zone” is currently near $49,330. He claims that historically, entries into this area have tended to show up before bull market runs, and he outlines upside targets for what could follow—potentially reaching $178,478, and in an even more extended scenario, $273,158. The analyst then turns to Ethereum (ETH). Martinez says he is watching whether ETH is moving within a parallel channel pattern, and if that interpretation holds, he believes the zone between current levels and $1,070 could offer a high-conviction entry point.  From there, he highlights an ecosystem-wide rally scenario with a macro target around $8,670 as the next major objective, framing it as a move that would emerge as the broader crypto ecosystem matures. Outlook For XRP, SOL, And DOGE For XRP, Martinez focuses on a specific support level as the key to determining whether the crypto market can stabilize. He says that if XRP can hold support near $0.80, it could create a strong “buy the dip” setup, potentially giving traders a chance before a later retest of XRP’s all-time high near $3.30 and beyond.  Solana (SOL) is next, and Martinez suggests SOL may need a broader “generational” reset to complete the bottoming process. He argues that the possible low area ranges from $74 to $50, describing that band as a total reset of speculative “froth.”  Martinez characterizes that kind of clearance as a major launchpad for the next upward move, implying that the more aggressive the washout, the more room there may be for the following leg higher. Related Reading: JPMorgan CEO Says Bank Must Build Its Own Blockchain To Counter Crypto Threats Finally, Martinez discusses Dogecoin (DOGE) using what he calls fractal signals. He says the memecoin’s chart structure indicates a coiling phase that often appears before the next parabolic move.  In that context, Martinez points to a zone he believes is where larger, more informed buyers could begin accumulating. His range for that buildup is between $0.090 and $0.060, which he describes as the area where accumulation could start to intensify ahead of a potential upside surge. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Wall Street’s financial advisory machine now has a direct line to Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund on NYSE Arca on Tuesday, backed by a network of roughly 16,000 financial advisors who can steer clients into the product through their standard brokerage accounts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Quantum Risk As Bernstein Sees 3–5 Year Window For Upgrades First Bank-Affiliated Asset Manager To Cross The Line The fund, trading under the ticker MSBT, tracks Bitcoin’s daily price using the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark 4 PM NY Settlement Rate — a pricing tool that pulls executed trade data from major Bitcoin spot exchanges to generate a standardized settlement figure. While BlackRock and Fidelity already offer Bitcoin ETFs, neither is affiliated with a traditional US bank. Morgan Stanley’s entry fills that gap and marks the first time a bank-linked asset manager has brought a cryptocurrency product of this kind to market. LATEST: ???? Morgan Stanley launches its Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca today, becoming the first major US bank to offer a publicly traded spot Bitcoin fund. https://t.co/r3un2WaSGs pic.twitter.com/lRV9IOsgEO — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) April 8, 2026 Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg called it a dramatic shift for the industry. Just a few years ago, he said, such a move from Morgan Stanley would have been unthinkable. Fees Set Below The Competition Morgan Stanley priced MSBT at a 0.14% sponsor fee — a hair below Grayscale Investments, which charges around 0.15% for a comparable product. It’s a small difference on paper, but in a market where cost comparisons drive investor decisions, even a single basis point can tip the scales. The firm says that makes MSBT the lowest-cost Bitcoin ETP currently available among comparable offerings. BNY and Coinbase were tapped to handle custody of the fund’s digital assets. BNY also takes on the administrator and transfer agent roles, covering accounting, record-keeping, and cash management. The combination of a legacy banking giant and a major crypto exchange signals a deliberate effort to meet institutional standards from the start. Related Reading: XRP Faces No Immediate Quantum Threat As Only 0.03% Supply Seen At Risk: Analyst Launch Comes Amid Fresh Outflows Across Bitcoin Funds The timing is not without friction. Bitcoin ETF products recorded their first week of net outflows just before MSBT went live, with close to $160 million pulled from these funds. Fidelity and Grayscale saw nearly $48 million and $42 million in withdrawals each. Despite the headwind, Morgan Stanley is pressing ahead. MSBT joins an ETF platform the firm launched in 2023, which now manages over $12 billion across 19 products. Adding a Bitcoin fund extends that lineup beyond traditional asset classes for the first time. Whether retail investors — guided by those thousands of financial advisors — will move in behind it remains the open question. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s dominance is being directly challenged in a new outlook from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who believes that an unexpected contender is positioning itself to overtake both. Tether USDT’s market cap is steadily closing in on Ethereum, and Mike McGlone thinks the stablecoin’s ascent is only getting started, while the two largest cryptocurrencies may be headed in the opposite direction. The Unlikely Contender Gaining Ground Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has singled out Tether (USDT) as the asset most likely to reshape the crypto market hierarchy in the near future. The crypto market has grown massively in recent years and is now flooded with millions of tokens. However, in a recent note issued this week, McGlone noted that capital is gravitating toward instruments that maintain stability and utility, especially in uncertain macro conditions, and Tether’s USDT is leading the charge.  Related Reading: 2018 Footage Of Ripple CEO Saying They’re Taking Over SWIFT Resurfaces, But How Have They Fared Since Then? Interestingly, McGlone also talked about a flippening of the crypto market ranks. However, this flippening is not the long-speculated scenario where Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin but a far less anticipated one where the dollar-backed stablecoin quietly surpasses both. “I expect the ‘flippening’ to continue, with Tether’s AUM topping Ethereum in 2026 and eventually Bitcoin,” McGlone wrote. The gap between the two assets has narrowed considerably in the past year. Ethereum’s market capitalization currently stands at approximately $272 billion. Tether’s market cap, meanwhile, is around $184 billion.  This time last year, the stablecoin was sitting at a $144.2 billion market cap, making it a 27.6% growth over the past year. Tether currently controls about 58% of the global stablecoin market cap, and together with USDC, the two account for around 82% of the total stablecoin cap. Bitcoin’s Long Road Back To $10,000 McGlone pairs this stablecoin outlook with a notably bearish stance on Bitcoin. According to him, there’s a huge possibility of the Bitcoin price crashing to as low as $10,000. Bitcoin has been trading in a prolonged corrective phase following its 2025 all-time high, and a chart published alongside McGlone’s commentary shows that Bitcoin has always led both equity market upswings and downswings, and if equities are rolling over, Bitcoin may follow. Related Reading: US-Iran Ceasefire Trigger Bitcoin And Crypto Market Surge, But Will This Rally Last? The chart below shows Bitcoin’s yearly candle alongside the S&P 500 index and its 180-day volatility reading. The stock market volatility, which is at a reading of 12.5, is too low for 2026. A reversal in that trend could lead to further declines for Bitcoin, which is already showing signs of rejection above $70,000. Bitcoin Yearly Chart. Source: @mikemcglone11 On X Bitcoin must hold above $75,000 to invalidate the scenario of a crash to $10,000. Failure to do so, according to McGlone, opens the path to a deeper reversion to as low as the $10,000 range, which he highlights as a long-term equilibrium zone since the introduction of futures markets in 2017. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may have survived the worst of the shock, but the data says this is stabilization, not escape velocity. A Bitcoin Reset Underway? According to CryptoQuant, the current conditions suggest a reset is underway, with Bitcoin working through a broad deleveraging phase. Yet even as market stress eases, the top cryptocurrency still hasn’t carved out a definitive bottom in this bear cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rallies Above $71K —But Analysts Warn The Peace Is Only Temporary Analyst MorenoDV_ believes Bitcoin’s on‑chain/derivatives “stress cycle” indicators are rolling over, suggesting the market is exiting an acute stress phase, but not yet entering a clean bullish reversal regime. The analyst says that alignment between Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio and the 30-day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta is signaling one of the strongest risk/reward profiles of the current cycle, but it still calls for patience. A stress cycle is a phase marked by elevated unrealized losses, forced deleveraging, compressed futures basis and defensive options positioning. The analyst starts by looking at the Sharpe Ratio. The current value has dropped far into negative territory, hitting around −40, a level that has historically signaled major buying zones. In past cycles (2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023), every time the ratio fell below this line, Bitcoin later saw a strong repricing higher. Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio (Short Term). Source: CryptoQuant. We are now sitting in the same red-circled territory shown in the graphics, the analysis say. The Pressure Delta Explanation According to the analyst, the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta helps explain where we are in the bottoming process. Bottoms don’t happen all at once: they unfold in stages. Related Reading: Can’t Move Your Crypto?— Traders Trapped In South Korean Exchanges First, there’s a big wave of selling (orange/red spikes below −0.05) when forced sellers and panicked investors dump their coins. Then, selling pressure slowly cools down and moves back into the green zone as fewer people are willing to sell. The best entries usually show up when the delta finally moves into the blue “Buy Pressure” area, which means real buying demand is coming back, not just that selling has slowed. Bitcoin: Buy/Sell Pressure Delta (30). Source: CryptoQuant. The report claims that the heavy selling phase is likely behind us and we have entered the middle stage. The delta is recovering but hasn’t yet reached strong buy territory. Historically, that gap is where some of the best opportunities have appeared. This analysis aligns with the QCP Market Colour from yesterday. Their report claimed Bitcoin’s movement looks more like a temporary pause than a lasting resolution There’s still risk, the analyst warns. The macro backdrop, liquidity, and weak sentiment could drag this out. But for investors who think in cycles, the data suggests we’re closer to the start of a new opportunity than to the end. Yesterday, Bitcoin bounced back and reclaimed $72k. At the moment of writing, BTC trades for the low $71ks on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview. Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.  

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is claiming its aggressive Bitcoin purchases have yielded a nearly $2 billion gain this year despite the top asset's clear price struggles. However, a close look at the enterprise software company's legally binding regulatory filings tells a much redder story: under standard accounting rules, the firm is nursing a multi-billion dollar unrealized […]
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Crypto analyst Cupra has revealed that Bitcoin has printed a historical aggressive recovery setup, signaling that a rally to the upside may be on the horizon. The analyst predicted that BTC could rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $150,000 as the next bull phase approaches.  Bitcoin Prints One of the Most Aggressive Setups In Years In an X post, Cupra stated that Bitcoin has just printed one of the most aggressive recovery setups that the market has seen in years. He noted that such a setup played out in 2019 after months of “pain,” which then led to a 282% explosive move for BTC. Now, the same structure is playing out, with the analyst noting a similar reset but with even more liquidity.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Deviated From The Bearish Trend That Began In January And $86,000 Could Be Next Cupra noted that this is not a coincidence, as this is how the bull run starts, with sentiment destroyed while liquidity builds and smart money begins to position. He added that the market is about to shock everyone and that a Bitcoin rally to $150,000 is not a “meme” but the next phase. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could also rally to a cycle peak of $420,000.  In another X post, the analyst doubled down on his assertion that Bitcoin could soon see a parabolic reversal to the upside. He noted that 35 bars are up while 12 bars are down, which is the “perfect cycle structure.”Cupra added that every time this happens, a massive expansion follows.  Cupra also revealed that Bitcoin has just completed the 12-bar reset and that this is the launch zone. In line with this, he declared that the next leg will be violent and won’t be a “normal pump.” The analyst added that the parabolic phase is starting now.  BTC Still At Risk Of A Decline Crypto analyst Colin has predicted that Bitcoin remains at risk of a decline despite claims that the leading crypto has formed a bottom. He highlighted a bear flag on his chart, suggesting BTC could rally above $77,000 in the short term following the 2-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, the leading crypto is likely to continue its downward momentum after this relief bounce.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Golden Cross Trend Enters Flow State: Why The Next 2-3 Weeks Are Important Crypto analyst Aralez warned market participants to be careful with any Bitcoin trades right now. He noted that price is sitting in a key zone after clearing a large liquidity shelf and that locally, the structure still looks bullish. However, there are two main things to monitor now, which are whether the market will show weakness soon and if the price will stall in a range.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com