The cryptocurrency industry went under intense pressure last week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the crash and multiple cryptocurrencies hitting new multi-month lows. The crash was more pronounced with Bitcoin, though, and the imbalance in selling pressure is quietly shifting the relationship between the two assets. The interesting imbalance is relayed in Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin. A technical analysis of the ETH/BTC ratio shared on the social media platform X by Jonathan Carter indicates that Ethereum may be approaching a critical breakout point against Bitcoin, following an extended period of compression on the 2-week candlestick timeframe chart. Long-Term Triangle On The Verge Of Break According to technical analysis of the ETH/BTC 2-week chart, Ethereum is nearing an important point against Bitcoin after years of consolidation beneath a descending trendline. This long-running pattern originates from a major peak in relative valuation in July 2017, when 1 ETH was worth 0.154 BTC in Bitcoin terms, and has since formed a series of lower highs to form a falling resistance trendline. The lower boundary of this pattern is a long-tested support zone around 0.02 that has repeatedly drawn buying interest for Ethereum in relation to Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Is Not Going To Keep Falling Forever, Analyst Says At the time of writing, the ETH/BTC ratio is trading around 0.030. However, the most recent 2-week candlestick has flipped green, and this development is important to the bullish outlook of Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin. The bullish projection is based on a full playout of the green candlestick with a push towards the descending triangle’s resistance trendline. If the pair can convincingly break above the descending triangle’s upper trend boundary with sustained momentum, then this would allow Ethereum to enter a phase of sustained outperformance against Bitcoin. How High Could ETH/BTC Go If A Breakout Happens? Crypto analyst Jonathan Carter outlined a series of potential upside targets should the ETH/BTC pair break free from its downward trend. The first target is around 0.040 BTC, which would represent a clear departure from the compressed range seen across recent months. If momentum continues, higher potential objectives include 0.060, 0.085, 0.105, 0.124, and all the way up to the 2017 peak of 0.154. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Still Trading Sideways Translating these ratio-based targets into absolute price levels is less straightforward, as the projections are based on Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin and not standalone price moves. Such a performance can happen in two major ways: either Ethereum receives more inflows than Bitcoin, or Bitcoin could crash more than Ethereum during a market-wide correction. The former scenario would most likely translate into a sustained rotation into Ethereum and the wider altcoin market, setting the stage for an altcoin season. Nonetheless, both scenarios will see the otherwise strong Bitcoin dominance dropping massively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s slide to $60,000 on Feb. 6 triggered a sharp surge of exchange inflows that on-chain analyst Darkfost called a capitulation event, with short-term holders and small “shrimp” wallets leading the move. It wasn’t just retail panic either—flows jumped on venues that pros actually use. Darkfost said the selloff “reignited investor anxiety” after BTC revisited a price level “not…since October 2024,” alongside a broader drawdown “exceeding 50% from the last all time high.” It wasn’t only where BTC traded. It was how fast it got there. “The acceleration of this correction created a clear fear driven dynamic,” he said. People rushed coins onto exchanges. That only added fuel to the liquidation fire. “Unsurprisingly, Short Term Holders were the first to react emotionally.” Bitcoin Capitulation Event What stood out: short-term holders were piling into Binance deposits first—the usual ‘quick to flinch’ group. On Feb. 6 alone, Binance inflows attributed to STHs on a 7-day sum basis “exceeded 100,000 BTC,” surpassing activity seen during the April 2025 correction, he said. Across venues, the scale was larger still. From Feb. 4 to Feb. 6, nearly “241,000 BTC were sent to various exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. It’s tough to interpret that as anything but selling pressure. In his view, the resulting wave of deposits compounded volatility already elevated by forced liquidations and de-risking. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap While Binance tends to capture large swaths of retail-driven flow, Darkfost flagged a concurrent surge on Coinbase Advanced, which he described as widely used by institutions, active traders, and professional desks. On Feb. 6, BTC inflows there hit roughly “27,000 BTC.” That’s a real spike. That’s the part that messes with the easy “retail panic” story. When you see it on both Binance and Coinbase, it’s probably not just one crowd freaking out. Darkfost put it bluntly: “nervousness…not limited to retail investors.” In a separate post focused on small holders, Darkfost argued that retail participation had been unusually muted for much of the cycle, then abruptly reappeared during the drop. He looked at Binance deposits from wallets under 1 BTC—the “shrimps,” usually the most jumpy. On Feb. 5, shrimp inflows to Binance exceeded “1,000 BTC in a single day,” versus a monthly average “closer to 365 BTC,” according to Darkfost. He noted the last comparable spike was in July 2025, but in a very different market regime, when Bitcoin was still pushing toward new highs. Same kind of flow, totally different mood. Darkfost also tied the move to cost-basis dynamics that have increasingly squeezed holders as the correction deepened. He said Bitcoin “has put all STH under pressure and is now beginning to test LTH,” adding that the first long-term holder cohorts—6 to 12 months and 12 to 18 months—were already underwater with cost bases of “$103,188” and “$85,849.” Related Reading: Kevin Warsh Will Trigger Bitcoin Regime Shift, Jeff Park Says He pointed to a reaction after price reached the realized price of the 18-month to 2-year cohort at “$63,654,” calling it “likely an area of interest for these holders.” He also noted that their rising cost basis suggests higher-cost coins have aged into that bracket. His take: this was an exhaustion flush, and it won’t reset overnight. “These capitulation moves have pushed BTC into an extreme oversold zone that the market will now need time to absorb and digest,” he wrote. After briefly slipping below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded and was “trading again around $71,000.” Darkfost said that stabilization lined up with retail flows drifting back toward their average. That takes one obvious source of sell pressure off the table. The bigger question is whether this was the low—or just a breather in a nasty, high-volatility regime. At press time, BTC traded at $69,525. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from $60,000. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,000 zone. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,500 and $67,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Holds Support Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $65,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,500 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $71,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,650 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level. The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $74,650.
Bitcoin’s next big options gravity well sits on Mar. 27 (260327), and the reason is simple: this is where the market has parked a thick stack of conditional bets that will need to be unwound, rolled forward, or paid out as the clock runs down. The Mar. 27 expiry carries about $8.65B in notional OI […]
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On Jan.30, 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $509.7 million in net outflows, which looks like pretty straightforward negative sentiment until you look at the individual tickers and realize a few of them stayed green. That contradiction aged fast over the next few days. Feb. 2 snapped back with $561.8 million in net inflows, then […]
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Bitcoin trades every minute of every day, but CME Bitcoin futures stop for the weekend. That mismatch is how a CME gap is born, and why it keeps turning up in the middle of the most stressful weeks. A CME gap is the blank space on a CME futures chart between Friday’s final traded level […]
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Bitcoin’s slide through $65,000 and toward $60,000 felt like a stress test the market had been postponing. The move was sharp enough to force a reset in positioning, and broad enough to pull the conversation away from single-catalyst explanations. Even mainstream media described the week as Bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since late 2022, with price briefly […]
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Bitcoin is navigating one of its deepest conviction zones yet, a phase that tests nerves more than it screams opportunity. While prices drift and fear dominates the market, smart money quietly accumulates, laying the groundwork for the next potential trend shift. Testing Conviction: Bitcoin In One Of Its Deepest Bear Market Zones Over the past few weeks, volatility has intensified, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall sharply. Marcus Corvinus highlighted that Bitcoin is trading in one of the deepest bear market zones in history, an area that doesn’t shout buy now but instead tests conviction and patience. These are the zones where price can drift aimlessly, bleed, and frustrate traders for weeks or even months. It’s not a sign of weakness; rather, strong hands are quietly accumulating while fear dominates the market narrative. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows These phases are always messy and uncomfortable. Sentiment is crushed, capitulation feels endless, and confidence is at its lowest. Retail traders often panic or step aside during these times, which is exactly why these opportunities are so often missed. The real shift in trend rarely begins with hype or dramatic rallies. Instead, it starts with stabilization, absorption, and subtle recovery signals that are only visible to those who are patient. Quiet accumulation, a slowing of selling pressure, and small rebounds all hint that the market may be preparing for its next meaningful move. History doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It punishes doubt before it rewards belief. Marcus concludes that he is watching this zone very closely. While it won’t last forever, when it finally ends, most market participants will wish they had paid attention. The opportunity lies in recognizing the signals while others are blinded by fear and frustration. Resistance Holds At $71,000 — What It Means For Bulls Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin is moving largely as expected. As previously mentioned, a pullback from the $61,000–$58,000 zone toward the $70,000–$67,000 area was likely, and that scenario has unfolded precisely as predicted. The market reacted within this range, confirming the anticipated short-term price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows Crypto Candy also highlighted that although BTC touched $71,000, it was unable to close above that level on the daily timeframe. This reinforces the idea that until Bitcoin decisively reclaims this zone, short-term retracements remain the primary expectation. Looking ahead, Crypto Candy emphasized that a bullish scenario can only be considered in the short term if BTC closes above $71,000. Until that happens, the market may continue to test lower ranges, and retracements from the current zone are expected. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto expert Tony Severino has opined that Bitcoin isn’t just showing signs of a yearly top but also that the BTC price may have hit a 16-year cyclical peak. This comes amid the flagship crypto’s recent crash to $60,000, which sparked fears of a bear market. Bitcoin May Be Showing Signs Of A Peak Amid BTC Price Crash To $60,000 In an X post, Severino alluded to the yearly Bitcoin chart, which he said looks like a 16-year cyclical peak rather than just a yearly top. The expert also outlined several reasons this appears to be a major cyclical top for the BTC price. First, he noted that the white candlesticks have been decreasing in size over time, while black candlesticks engulf more white candles with each appearance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Furthermore, Severino highlighted the Doji at the top of a rising wedge pattern while the Evening Star is in progress, which is a bearish reversal signal for the BTC price. Meanwhile, the Fischer Transform is crossing bearish with divergence, and the Stochastic is crossing bearish after being rejected from 80. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling back below 70 after making it above this level on the highest timeframe chart. His analysis comes as the BTC price continues to decline, suggesting the crypto market may be in a bear market after topping last October. Bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 earlier this week, suffering its largest daily decline since the FTX collapse. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also opined that Bitcoin is in a bear market, predicting that it could still drop to as low as $42,000 before it sees a bottom. Reason For The Recent BTC Crash BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has commented on the reason for this recent Bitcoin crash, suggesting that it was due to external factors rather than part of an ongoing bear market. In an X post, he stated that the BTC price dump was probably due to a dealer hedging off the back of BlackRock’s BTC ETF structured products. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a record trading volume of $10 billion on the day of this crash to $60,000. Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 Hayes’ comment comes on the back of Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000, with the flagship crypto recording one of its largest ever daily gains yesterday following the crash to $60,000. Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, suggested that the drop to $60,000 may mark the bottom for the BTC price. This came as he noted that the 200-week MA, which is around $60,000, has historically been a strong entry point for long-term investors. At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $70,000, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity. According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply. These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps. None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement. Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products. One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product. While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens. This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases. According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard. Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades. Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain. What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility. Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital. Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point. Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide. Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly. The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure after losing the $70K region, a level that had previously acted as both psychological and technical support. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, with price briefly touching the $60K zone before stabilizing near $65.9K. This move confirms a breakdown from the prior consolidation range and shifts focus toward whether this decline represents a deeper bear phase or a late-cycle correction. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K–$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide. Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset. The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually. However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it. He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets. Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity. Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash. If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, much of the crypto complex already went through a down cycle last year even though headline coins looked steadier. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures He points to heavy buying from ETFs and companies that kept Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP from showing the full brunt of those losses. Some tokens, without that same support, fell hard — in many cases by about 50%–60% — and behaved like past bear phases. Institutional Buying Accelerates Hougan Says ETF flows and corporate accumulation have shifted the balance. When institutions buy more than new supply, price pressure changes. That is what he highlights. “We ran the four-year cycle last year,” Hougan said. “We’re already at the bottom. I think we’re coming back up.” ETF purchases and corporate hoarding at times outpaced newly mined Bitcoin, creating a persistent bid under the market. Reports note the comparison to gold, where steady central bank buying first steadied prices and later helped fuel much bigger moves. “Just like gold eventually entered a parabolic move, Bitcoin will follow suit,” Hougan said. We’re just earlier in that process.” A Selective Altcoin Cycle Expected Investors are getting pickier. The next up-cycle, according to this view, will reward projects with clear use and steady activity, not every token with hype. Networks tied to stablecoins, tokenization, and real infrastructure work stand a better chance of drawing capital. Lower-quality projects that lack users or clear purpose could see little interest and remain sidelined. Bitcoin Price Action In the middle of these structural shifts, Bitcoin’s price has kept traders busy. Recently BTC slid from earlier peaks to roughly 60,000–65,000 before finding buyers and moving back above 65,000 amid a broader rebound. Geopolitical headlines pushed risk appetite up and down, and those swings helped produce one of Bitcoin’s rougher stretches in weeks. Reports say traders are watching headlines closely because news can prompt sudden outsized moves. Related Reading: Bitcoin Edges Past Gold In Appeal, JPMorgan Says A Slow Transfer From Old Hands To New Buyers Long-term holders are selling some coins while institutions move in. That hand-off can feel messy. A sale wall forms when investors who bought early decide to take profit, and large institutions step in to absorb that supply. That process has been observed in other asset classes as they mature, and it does not automatically mean demand is weakening over the long run. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has continued to decline recently, with its value now hitting the lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Deep Inside Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tracks the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Loss Nears $900 Million, Highest Since FTX Crash The index determines the trader mentality using the data of the following five factors: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it makes use of a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the indicator is above 53, it means the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. On the other hand, the metric being under 47 suggests the dominance of fear. Naturally, the index lying between these two cutoffs implies a neutral mentality is shared by the majority. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ regions called the extreme fear (25 and below) and extreme greed (above 75). After the recent market downturn, sentiment among cryptocurrency traders has deteriorated into the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 9 at the moment, which is a pretty low level. In fact, this level is so deep into extreme fear that this is the first time in the current cycle that the metric has reached it. Below is a chart that shows how the current level of extreme fear lines up against the indicator’s historical data. From the graph, it’s visible that the last time the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reached a value this low was back in June 2022, right in the middle of that year’s bear market. The latest drop in the metric to a single-digit value is a result of the price drawdown that BTC and other cryptocurrencies have faced since the last week of January. This decline in sentiment, however, may not be such a bad thing for the sector, if history is to go by. Often, an extremely fearful market facilitates bottom formations as underwater investors capitulate and resolute hands pick up their coins. During a bear market, however, the Fear & Greed Index is usually inside the zone for a notable duration before a bottom is reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours If the recent shift in the sector reflects a transition to a bear market, then it only remains to be seen how long mood will be in extreme fear before relief arrives for Bitcoin and company. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,100, down 19% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle. Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026. What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin experienced a steep decline over the last 24 hours, pushing its price to approximately $60,000 amid an accelerated selloff comparable to the 2022 FTX collapse. BTC had recovered to $69,800 as of press time, according to CryptoSlate data. Still, Glassnode data helped frame the extent to which the price had slipped relative to widely […]
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Loss has spiked to its highest level since November 2022 as investors have capitulated after the price crash. Bitcoin Realized Loss Has Hit A Value Of $889 Million In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that investors on the network are ‘realizing’ with their transactions. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold to see at what price it changed hands before this. If the previous selling price was greater than the latest spot price for any token, then its sale is considered to be resulting in some loss realization. The exact degree of loss involved in the transaction is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss sums up this value for all loss transfers to find the total for the network. A counterpart indicator called the Realized Profit deals with the transactions of the opposite type (that is, those with a cost basis lower than the latest selling value). Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Loss has witnessed a sharp spike recently, implying investors have participated in a notable amount of loss-taking. Something to note is that the version of the metric used by the analytics firm here is the “entity-adjusted” one, meaning that it only tracks transactions occurring between two different entities, rather than just two addresses. Glassnode defines an “entity” to be a cluster of addresses that it has determined to belong to the same owner. In the context of the Realized Loss, the entity-adjusted indicator filters out transactions occurring between the wallets of the same investor. These naturally never involve a true realization of loss (or profit), so removing them from the data provides a more accurate representation of the market. Applying for this filtration, the 7-day MA Realized Loss hit a peak value of $889 million on Wednesday. This is the highest single-day spike in the metric since November 2022, when the market crashed to the bear market bottom following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The latest investor capitulation has arrived as Bitcoin has been in freefall, with its price now breaking below the $70,000 level. It now remains to be seen whether the loss-taking will sustain or if investor panic will subside in the coming days. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken a blow of more than 21% over the past week that has taken its price to the $66,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s market shook hard on a single day of trading, sending prices tumbling to $65,000 and nerves flaring. Reports note the move wiped out a big chunk of recent gains and pushed many recent buyers into loss. Price action this sharp rarely comes without a story behind it — and this one had several threads pulling at once. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands Bitcoin: Capitulation And Selling Pressure According to Glassnode, the spike in forced sales is one of the biggest seen in about two years. Traders who had used borrowed money were hit first. Liquidations swept through positions, and many coins moved from hands that bought recently to hands that sold quickly. Realized losses climbed to the highest levels since late 2022, with close to $890 million a day recorded on a seven-day average. The sell-off unfolded over roughly 10 hours of intense trading, with panic and program trades both playing a role. The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling. These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.… pic.twitter.com/mcvVqXJcYq — glassnode (@glassnode) February 5, 2026 Prices Fall Below Buyer Cost Lines Reports say Bitcoin’s market price has fallen under several on-chain cost markers that many investors watch. Short-term buyers who picked up coins in recent months now sit below their purchase price. That creates a kind of pressure where emotional selling can feed into more selling. Active investor costs and broader market averages were all above the spot price, which made the slide feel deeper. When a market drops under the average cost of recent buyers, volatility tends to rise and traders begin hunting for the next reliable support. News Flow And Timing The move comes after a run of strong gains earlier in the year. Price was last at these levels back in November 2024, just before US President Donald Trump won his reelection. That timing put the fall in sharper relief for some observers who had started to see those prior highs as a fresh floor. Headlines and big trades added friction to the market. Social chatter and rapid shifts in order books amplified selling, and some long-term holders did move to lock in gains or cut risk. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures What The Numbers Tell Us Based on on-chain measures, the recent drop forced a large group of holders to realize losses, not just paper losses but actual transactions where coins left wallets at a lower price than they were bought. That kind of clearing can remove built-up leverage and leave a cleaner market on the other side. It also leaves fewer buyers near current levels, which means rebounds can be choppy and uneven. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The debate over whether the XRP price could reach $10,000 has reignited in the crypto market. However, this time, one crypto analyst challenges the common argument that market capitalization could limit XRP’s growth. According to the analyst, this claim is flawed and does not take into context XRP’s liquidity and utility as a global settlement currency. Why Market Cap Does Not Limit Price Surge To $10,000 Some critics argue that XRP would never hit $10,000 because doing so would make its market capitalization exceed the global money supply. Market analyst Crypto_Luke has addressed this misconception in a recent X post, emphasizing that market cap does not limit the XRP price in any way. Related Reading: Expert Explains Why The Market Cap Theory Doesn’t Apply To XRP The analyst explained that market cap is simply the last traded price multiplied by a cryptocurrency’s circulating supply, which is a snapshot of overall trading activity and not a reflection of how much money is required to achieve a certain price. He noted that the common criticism that market capitalization represents the amount of money invested in an asset is inaccurate. One reason Crypto_Luke believes the market cap argument is flawed is that it fails to account for how XRP operates. Unlike assets designed primarily for storing value, such as BTC, XRP is designed for rapid liquidity and settlement across global corridors. He stated that XRP can be used multiple times in a single day, facilitating transactions without requiring additional capital. As a result, he suggests that XRP’s price is determined by its “actively traded float,” rather than by the total supply that is idle. In his analysis, Crypto_Luke emphasized that liquidity and price adjustments go hand-in-hand in XRP’s design. He explained that assets that move quickly through settlements allow the blockchain network to satisfy demand without requiring equivalent dollar-for-dollar backing. As XRP’s transaction volume increases, its price naturally adjusts to reflect the value of its utility rather than a fixed market cap. The analyst noted that XRP’s supply was intentionally designed to be large, fixed, and non-reissuable. This structure supports a multi-trillion-dollar liquidity pool and enables the network to handle high-volume settlement throughput. XRP Market Cap Crashes Nearly 10% More recently, XRP faces additional downward pressure, as CMC data shows that the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization has crashed by nearly 10%. As of writing, XRP’s market cap has fallen to approximately $79.25 billion following a massive decline in its price over the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Completes ‘Super Guppy Compression’ Against Bitcoin, Next Target Emerges The downturn aligns with the broader market sell-off across major cryptocurrencies, as sentiment has become increasingly bearish. XRP has been among the worst affected, with its price slipping toward $1.3, marking its lowest levels since 2024. The cryptocurrency shows no clear signs of a rebound despite a recent surge in daily trading volume, which has increased by more than 148%. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period. Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates. Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month. BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s role in big-money talks has shifted in recent weeks. Reports say analysts at JPMorgan now see Bitcoin as more attractive than gold for long-term investors once you adjust how risk is counted. That’s a notable twist given how deeply gold has been ingrained as the go-to safe haven for decades. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures Gold’s climb has been hard to ignore. After swinging wildly, gold prices rallied back to around $5,000 per ounce following a sharp sell-off earlier in February, with major banks projecting further strength later in 2026. This rebound came after gold reached record highs, and JPMorgan even forecasts it could hit roughly $6,300 per ounce by year-end. At the same time, Bitcoin’s own numbers have looked shaky. Since peaking above $126,000, Bitcoin has slid nearly 50%, settling nearer $65,000-$70,000 in early February. That plunge left BTC below its estimated production cost of around $87,000, according to analysts. A Bridge Between Price And Risk Reports say the real math behind JPMorgan’s view isn’t just about where these assets sit today. It’s about how wild their price swings have been. The soaring price came with rising unpredictability — gold’s volatility has spiked as markets reacted to geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic moves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility has softened from its usual extremes. This convergence shows up in what’s called the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio. According to JPMorgan, that ratio has plunged to around 1.5, a record low. On its face, that means Bitcoin is carrying only about 1.5 times the risk of gold — tighter than historical norms. That shift makes risk-adjusted returns more competitive for BTC. Under this framework, analysts figure Bitcoin’s market capitalization would have to rise dramatically to match the roughly $8 trillion private sector investment held in gold. If that happened, implied models point to Bitcoin prices near $266,000. JPMorgan says that is not an expected short-term target, but the theoretical math illustrates how much room exists if sentiment changes. Market Movements Tell Another Story In the broader market, tokens like XRP, Ethereum, and Solana have been caught up in the same risk sell-off that clipped Bitcoin. These cryptos have seen sharp drops in recent sessions as traders fled riskier bets, testing buying interest and liquidity conditions. Moves like these show that the relative calm in volatility isn’t guaranteed to last, especially when markets tighten. Gold’s oscillations have also tested investor nerves. Earlier in 2026, gold endured some of its most extreme swings ever — including double-digit plunges and rebounds that challenged its reputation as the “stable” safe haven. But the rebound to near $5,000 per ounce underlines demand from defensive buyers. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands What Investors Are Weighing Based on reports, JPMorgan’s stance doesn’t say Bitcoin will instantly replace gold in portfolios. Instead, analysts are noting how relative risk and reward are being measured today. Bitcoin’s lower recent volatility plus its huge theoretical upside based on gold’s market size make it a compelling candidate for some long-range thinking. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price is currently trading under immense bearish pressure, and the downtrend might not yet be over. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended corrective phase that began after Bitcoin topped out at $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different outlooks as to when the correction will reach a bottom. Amid the uncertainty, an outlook from a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on X, as it points to historical market bottoms that suggest Bitcoin may still be headed significantly lower. Past Drawdowns Show A Clear Pattern Across Bitcoin Cycles Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during past bear markets and how those declines have changed as the asset has matured over the years. According to the data he highlighted, Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle saw a drawdown of about 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure reduced to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to around 77% during the 2022 bear market. Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details The consistent takeaway from these cycles is that each successive drawdown has been smaller than the last. This isn’t surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have been growing in size, liquidity, and participation over time. Using that trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should drop from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown compresses to about 70% in the current cycle, measured from the $126,000 all-time high, then the bottom would land around the $38,000 region. Dismissing Higher Bottom Targets Like $69,000 And $50,000 The projection by Sherlock received a lot of views and comments on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and increased institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, Bitcoin’s next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60%, instead of 70%. Sherlock pushed back on that view by noting how reflexivity can amplify downside moves just as easily as it causes rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Quickly Revisit $81,000 Again After The Crash For the time being, Bitcoin is caught between aggressive sell-offs and growing concern that the larger corrective phase is not complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having rebounded from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko. The recent price action means Bitcoin is back to trading at its lowest levels since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would represent a return to price levels last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin printed one of the largest ever daily candles to the downside on Thursday, sliding more than 15%, roughly $10,800, in a move that rippled through derivatives, spot venues, and the US Bitcoin ETF complex. The scale of the drop is what made it stand out. Not just the percentage drawdown, but the mix of stress signals hitting at once: implied volatility spiking, volumes exploding, and momentum gauges collapsing into levels typically associated with forced selling rather than discretionary risk reduction. Bitcoin Crash Sparks Capitulation Signals Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts framed the session as a “capitulation watch,” pointing to a cluster of metrics rarely seen together. He highlighted Bitcoin implied volatility via BVIV at 88.55, “closing in on the FTX-collapse peak of 105,” and noted Coinbase logged its eighth-largest trading day ever by USD value, with $3.34 billion changing hands—roughly 54,000 BTC at ~$62,000. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Coutts also underscored how extreme the momentum reset looked on daily charts, citing a daily RSI of 15.64, “at or below March 2020 COVID crash lows.” He added: “Margin calls are firing. Forced liquidations are likely still working through the system. This has the signature of a capitulation event, but capitulation can be a process, not a single candle (unless we get a massive wick!). These conditions can persist for weeks or even months before a durable low forms.” Macro trader Alex Krüger stopped short of a price target for the lows, but argued the market was registering the kind of positioning and pricing distortions that tend to cluster around turning points in time. “Friends I really do not know where the bitcoin bottom is but I can recognize extreme conditions that you only see close to bottoms in time, such as extreme negative funding, options skew at levels only seen once before since 2022 (FTX day), and volumes & liquidations at extraordinary levels,” he wrote. “You also have some monster shorts that opened between 64k and 60k, material for a short squeeze sending price to 68k, and if we see so then everyone will start talking about the bottom.” Krüger’s caveat was just as direct: “In the meantime of course equities need to hold. And having a bottom in does not mean that you will see a major trend from here.” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn described the tape as historically stretched on RSI measures, saying bitcoin was “the most oversold today than any day since 3AC blew up in June 2022 (30d RSI),” and calling it “basically in the top 3 oversold events ever,” alongside November 2018 and June 2022. The US spot Bitcoin ETF market didn’t cushion the move, it amplified the day’s activity. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas said BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) “just crushed its daily volume record with $10b worth of shares traded” as the fund’s price fell 13%, its second-worst daily drop since launch. Head of Research for Anchorage Digital David Lawant added that IBIT alone trading above $10 billion was the highest since launch, beating prior records by 69% in shares and 27% in USD volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted Positioning data hinted at a complex, two-sided ETF ecosystem. Head of Research at K33 Research Vetle Lunde noted net equivalent short exposure in short BTC ETFs was nearing the November 2022 peak at 7,745 BTC, while 2x leveraged long BTC ETFs—products that didn’t exist then—currently hold 39,590 BTC, “at levels not seen since Mar 24.” Volatility remained the throughline. ProCap CIO Jeff Park said: “Bitcoin implied vol is now at 75%. This is the highest level since the ETF launch in 2024. It is also finally higher than gold volatility. Know it’s a lot of pain right now, but this is all part of the process required for Bitcoin to make new highs. The melt up will be fast.” At press time, BTC rebounded from $60,000 to roughly $64,900, a gain of about 9% from the session low. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on market sentiment and momentum. After months of volatility, recent price action suggests a fragile structure, with buyers repeatedly failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. Analysts increasingly warn that downside risks remain elevated as short-term investors continue to absorb losses rather than stepping in aggressively to accumulate. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework A recent report from analyst Axel Adler highlights mounting stress among short-term holders. Data from the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR indicator shows that many participants are now realizing losses, with this cohort sitting roughly 25% below their average acquisition cost. The SOPR metric, which compares selling price to purchase price, has dropped to 0.949, while its 7-day average remains near 0.97. Values below 1.0 confirm that coins are being sold at a loss, often reflecting forced liquidations or reactive selling behavior. Notably, the indicator has stayed below this threshold since mid-January, signaling sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction. Historically, prolonged SOPR weakness alongside price stabilization can indicate seller exhaustion. However, a decisive move back above 1.0 would be required to confirm a shift in market regime. Until then, the risk of further downside cannot be ruled out. Short-Term Holder MVRV Signals Deep Unrealized Losses Axel Adler also points to the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator as further evidence of mounting stress among recent market participants. This metric compares the current market price with the average acquisition price of short-term holders, offering a clear view of unrealized profitability. When MVRV falls below 1.0, it indicates that this cohort is, on average, holding positions at a loss rather than in profit. Recent data shows the STH MVRV dropping sharply to around 0.752, with the cohort’s realized price near $95,400. With Bitcoin trading close to $71,700, short-term holders are roughly 25% underwater. The gap between market price and their cost basis—about $23,700—is currently the widest observed in this cycle, highlighting the scale of recent downside pressure. Historically, MVRV readings approaching or falling below the 0.8 level have often coincided with accumulation phases or local market bottoms. However, such signals are not sufficient on their own. Confirmation typically requires price stabilization alongside a recovery in SOPR above 1.0, indicating that forced selling has eased. Until those conditions emerge, the data suggests continued fragility despite increasing signs of capitulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Transfer Surge Mirrors 2018 And 2021 Peaks – What Happens Next? Bitcoin Breaks Key Weekly Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows clear deterioration after price decisively broke below the mid-range support that had previously held near the $75K area. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, pushing BTC toward the $70K zone while trading well below the 50-week moving average. Historically, sustained trading under this average tends to coincide with corrective or transitional bear phases rather than bullish continuation. The 100-week moving average, currently positioned slightly above $80K, has shifted from support to resistance. The market requires a reclaim of this level to stabilize sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-week average continues to trend upward near the $55K–$60K region, marking a deeper macro support band if selling pressure persists. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase Volume expansion accompanying the latest decline suggests active distribution rather than low-liquidity drift. However, capitulation phases often show similar volume characteristics, meaning interpretation depends on whether follow-through selling continues or begins to fade. Structurally, BTC now faces a critical test. Holding above the $68K–$70K range could allow consolidation before a potential recovery attempt. Failure to stabilize there would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward longer-term moving average support, keeping the broader market cautious despite growing oversold conditions. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that the stress could spread more broadly across the sector. The number of publicly traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly. As a result, Bitcoin has slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major Companies Suffer Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday. In December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support dividend payments. The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices. Alt5 Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows social media users are still optimistic about XRP even as sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined alongside the market downturn. XRP Positive/Negative Sentiment Is Still At A Notable Level In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media sentiment has compared across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP during the latest market decline. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us about how positive comments related to a given asset stack up against the negative ones on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The metric works by assembling posts/comments/messages containing mentions of the asset and feeding them into a machine-learning model to classify them as bearish or bullish. It then counts up the number of posts in each category and finds their ratio. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means positive comments related to the cryptocurrency outweigh the negative ones. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold suggests the dominance of bearish sentiment. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP over the past month: As is visible in the above graph, the Positive/Negative Sentiment plunged across the three cryptocurrencies at the end of January as prices crashed. The indicator’s value slipped below 1 for each of them during this drop, indicating traders became bearish on the market as a whole. As prices have continued to slide down since then, however, a shift has occurred in the Positive/Negative Sentiment, with its value separating for the three. The chart shows that the metric’s latest value for XRP is nearly 2.2, indicating that social media users have become more optimistic about the coin. Meanwhile, the indicator continues to be inside the bearish zone for Bitcoin with a value of 0.79. Ethereum has seen some improvement in the metric to a neutral value of 1, but compared to the normal for January, this level could still be considered to reflect a bearish sentiment among the retail social media crowd. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Compresses To Levels Last Seen Near $29,000 Historically, digital asset markets have often tended to move in a direction contrary to the expectations of retail traders. This means that an extreme amount of fear can help prices rebound, while overhype can lead to tops. “There remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole,” explained the analytics firm. Given that trader sentiment has diverged for XRP recently, however, it only remains to be seen how the sector will develop in the near future. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.35, down more than 27% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its decline to $60,000. BTC is down over 10% and might struggle to recover easily above the $70,000 resistance. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $62,500 and $61,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Sharply Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $72,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $70,000 and $68,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $65,500. A low was formed at $60,500, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a minor increase above the $62,000 and $63,200 levels. The price cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,865 swing high to the $60,500 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $62,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $66,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $67,200 level. A close above the $67,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,865 swing high to the $60,500 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,500 and $75,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $63,200 level. The first major support is near the $62,500 level. The next support is now near the $61,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $60,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $62,500, followed by $61,200. Major Resistance Levels – $67,200 and $68,500.
Bitcoin is down more than 40% from its October highs, but investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled 6.6% of assets.