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Bitcoin’s rebound from the February 6 low at $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement, but the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun. In an April 20 video, the analyst argued that while long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, persistent selling from short-term holders and whales is still capping upside. Maartun framed the current setup as a question of market character rather than raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, roughly 24% above what he described as the bear market low, but he said that alone does not settle whether the market is turning higher in a durable way. “The real question isn’t how far the price has moved. It’s what kind of move this actually is,” he said. “Is this the start of a new trend or just another rally that gets sold into? And that distinction matters because misreading this phase is exactly how capital gets misallocated.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Pain Reaches Critical Threshold — Impact On Price Bitcoin On-Chain Data Still Flashes Caution His core argument is that the foundation beneath the market has improved even if price has not yet confirmed it. Over the last 30 days, long-term holder supply has increased by about 354,000 BTC, a shift he described as “structural accumulation.” In Maartun’s reading, that signals coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants less sensitive to short-term volatility. “That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” he said. “Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation. Long-term holders aren’t reacting to short-term volatility. So when their supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger base.” That constructive backdrop, however, is only one side of the picture. Maartun said a large part of the recent price push appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which he said brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14. He argued that such an aggressive capital injection would normally be expected to produce a stronger market response. When that does not happen, the implication is that substantial supply is meeting demand. On that front, Maartun pointed to two seller cohorts. The first is short-term holders, who have moved roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Crucially, he said this is happening while SOPR remains below 1, meaning those holders are exiting at a loss rather than selling from a position of strength. “We’ve seen roughly 60,000 BTC move to exchanges from this group,” he said. “And importantly, this is happening while SOPR is below one, which means they’re selling at a loss. They bought higher and now they’re exiting into strength. That’s classic behavior in a bear market environment.” He did not present that flow as wholly bearish. Instead, he described it as part of a broader rotation in which weaker hands sell into bids provided by stronger buyers. Still, he said it is a feature more commonly associated with bear market rallies than with clean trend continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Red: Bearish Signal? The second source of supply is whales. According to Maartun, wallets holding more than 100 BTC have been increasing exchange inflows, suggesting that distribution is picking up again at current levels. That matters because it creates a market where improving long-term structure coexists with active near-term selling pressure. Price action, in his view, reflects that tension. Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder realized price, which he placed around $83,000. Maartun described that level as a key pivot: in bull markets, price tends to hold above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance. For now, Bitcoin is still trading underneath it, and he said the market has yet to produce a clean breakout through major overhead levels. The result is what Maartun called a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” Long-term holders are accumulating, strategic demand has appeared, and weaker participants are being flushed out. But short-term holders are still selling at a loss, whales are distributing into strength, and price has not reclaimed a key structural threshold. That leaves the market in a conditional state. If demand can continue absorbing supply and push Bitcoin back above the short-term holder realized price, the improving backdrop could begin to translate into a more durable uptrend. Until then, Maartun’s conclusion is more restrained: the internal structure is getting better, but the rally has not yet earned the benefit of the doubt. At press time, BTC traded at $75,088. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed above 29 on Monday for the first time since January 29, pulling out of “extreme fear” and settling into plain “fear.” It is a small move on a scale, but in crypto markets, it signals a shift in mood that money tends to follow. Related Reading: XRP A Strong Buy Before 2027 Despite 27% Drop In 2026: Finance Advisory Firm Funds Flow Back In Crypto investment products drew $1.4 billion in fresh inflows last week, according to data from CoinShares — the second-largest weekly figure recorded since January. The gain built on the prior week’s $1.1 billion, stretching the inflow run to three straight weeks and $2.7 billion combined. Total assets under management across crypto exchange-traded products rose close to $155 billion, the highest mark since early February. Just weeks earlier, in March, that figure had fallen as low as $128 billion. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill pointed to a recovering appetite for risk, tied largely to ongoing US-Iran ceasefire talks. Bitcoin’s price added to the mood, briefly pushing toward $78,000 on Friday before pulling back. Bitcoin And Ether Lead, Altcoins Get Left Behind Bitcoin products captured the bulk of the action. Data shows inflows into Bitcoin ETPs reached $1.12 billion for the week, pushing year-to-date totals to $3 billion, with assets under management sitting at $123 billion. US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone accounted for roughly $1 billion of that weekly total. Ether had its strongest week since January, pulling in $328 million. That was enough to flip Ether ETPs into positive territory for the year, with year-to-date inflows now sitting at $197 million. Not everything moved in the same direction. XRP products bled $56 million in outflows, the largest among altcoins. Solana recorded smaller but still negative flows of $2.3 million. Short-Bitcoin products took in just $1.4 million, suggesting only a thin slice of investors are still betting against the market. Inflation Data Gets Brushed Aside Geographically, the US drove most of the action — $1.5 billion in inflows. Germany came in second at $28 million. Switzerland ran the other way, posting $138 million in outflows. Related Reading: Strategy Raises $1.76B War Chest As Saylor Signals Bigger Bitcoin Buy March CPI came in at 3.3% year over year, with core inflation at 2.6%. Based on reports from CoinShares, markets largely looked past the headline number, treating core inflation as contained and supply-driven rather than broad-based. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

A CryptoQuant analyst has explained how the recent Bitcoin recovery has still looked like a bear market rally based on signals in on-chain metrics. Bitcoin Recovery Has Come Alongside A Rise In The LTH Supply In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has discussed the recent recovery run that Bitcoin has witnessed. This surge has arrived after BTC stabilized into a consolidation range following its low at the start of February. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Network Collapsing Into AI At Record Pace, Analyst Warns On-chain data suggests that this bottoming process started alongside an uptick in the supply of the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are defined as investors who have been holding onto their tokens since more than 155 days ago. As the below chart shows, the 30-day change in the supply of this Bitcoin cohort was negative between mid-2025 and January 2026, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were distributing their coins. Since the end of January, however, the metric has flipped negative, a sign that coins have been becoming a part of the LTH supply. Note that this metric has a 155-day delay attached between when buying occurred and when it reflects on the data since coins first have to be held for 155 days before they can be classified into the group. As such, the green netflow doesn’t imply accumulation that’s occurring in the present. What it does suggest, however, is that the market has seen the rise of HODLing conviction as BTC has settled into the consolidation phase. In the last month, 345,000 BTC has matured into the group. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” noted Maartunn. While the latest price recovery has come alongside a surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply, it has also been met with selling pressure. The short-term holders (STHs), investors with a holding time of 155 days or lower, sent about 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Another metric shows that STHs have been transferring their Bitcoin at a loss recently, suggesting that they have still been exiting at a loss despite the recovery surge. Distribution has not just come from the STHs, but also the large entities holding more than 100 BTC in their wallets, who have seen their exchange inflows pick up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Fails To Lift Market Sentiment From Extreme Fear The selling pressure from these groups could be why the Bitcoin rally hasn’t been able to push higher despite the trend in the LTH supply and the accumulation from Strategy. “For now, this still looks like a bear market rally…” said Maartunn. “But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.” BTC Price Bitcoin surged above $78,000 last week, but the asset has since seen a setback as its price has dropped to $75,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $73,650 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to clear the $76,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $74,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $76,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Aims Higher Bitcoin price extended losses below the $75,500 support zone. BTC even spiked below $74,000 before the bulls appeared. A low was formed at $73,637, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above the $74,500 and $75,000 levels. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. Bitcoin is now trading above $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,500 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,250 level. A close above the $77,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $76,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,400 level. The first major support is near the $75,000 level. The next support is now near the $74,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $73,650 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now moving lower toward the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,000, followed by $74,250. Major Resistance Levels – $76,500 and $77,250.

The latest Bitcoin (BTC) price rebound above $78,000 has sparked renewed optimism across the market, as investor sentiment has flipped bullish. However, not all market watchers are convinced that the momentum will last. Crypto analyst Marmot is warning that the recent price surge may be masking deeper weakness underneath, urging investors and traders not to trust it. As bullish forecasts continue to spread across the market, Marmot believes traders may overlook signals that often precede sharp reversals and major shifts in market direction.  Why Bitcoin’s Rally Above $78,000 Could Be A Trap Marmot has warned that Bitcoin’s recent price rally could be a major bull trap rather than a sustained breakout. According to him, the rebound resembles a classic distribution pattern designed to shake out retail traders before a sharp decline occurs.  Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 In his post on X, the analyst cautioned investors and traders against trusting BTC’s bounce above $78,000, as market participants increasingly call for a price of $100,000 even as the cryptocurrency may still be in a bear market. He argued that Bitcoin’s real market move remains undetected and unknown to virtually 99% of traders despite growing bullish sentiment.  Supporting his bearish forecast, Marmot highlighted two identical structures on a Bitcoin price chart, showing that the cryptocurrency had experienced a massive price surge between December 2025 and January 2026 after its all-time high above $126,000. At the time, BTC formed a triangle wedge pattern, where prices climbed to a range between $96,000 and $100,000 before a massive price crash to below $65,000 in February 2026. Marmot’s chart shows that the same pattern is now unfolding in real time. Bitcoin is currently grinding inside a consolidation triangle wedge between roughly $72,000 and $80,000 following its recent price spike. If historical patterns repeat, the analyst expects Bitcoin to experience another major correction, this time down to the $50,000 range. This would represent a more than 33.5% crash from levels above $75,200, at the time of writing.  ETF Flows And Liquidity Add Pressure To BTC In his post, Marmot also pointed to several factors that continue to add more pressure on Bitcoin’s price and outlook. He pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETF activity, noting that they had recently recorded their largest outflows in months. He stated that approximately $300 million was withdrawn in a single day, with outflows also seen in Fidelity’s ETF.  Related Reading: Iran Ceasefire Drives Bitcoin Above $75,000, But Can It Push BTC To $100,000? Moreover, while retail investors continue buying the dip, Marmot argued that institutions are selling into the strength. Rather than fully exiting the market, the analyst said that large players are rotating capital elsewhere, as part of a broader repositioning.  Marmot also claimed that liquidity walls imposed by investment firms such as BlackRock are helping to hold prices up artificially. He noted that the reason is likely to create exit liquidity for smart money while demand from smaller traders remains active.  While Marmot has acknowledged that a Bitcoin price crash may not happen immediately, he warned that once liquidity leaves the market, the cryptocurrency’s downside move could be fast and severe. As a result, he has urged traders not to buy near the top while funds are still rebalancing. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is showing renewed strength after a sharp rebound, signaling that buyers are stepping back in at key levels. With momentum building and price pushing higher, attention is now shifting toward the $79,000 resistance zone, where a breakout could confirm continued upside and open the door for a stronger rally. Selling Pressure After Initial Reaction Bitcoin saw an immediate response to yesterday’s developments, facing notable selling pressure as the market processed the news. Analyst Kamile Uray highlights that while the initial reaction was bearish, the possibility for a continued rally remains on the table, provided the immediate low of $73,371 is successfully defended. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Gives Back Gains, But Structure Remains Bullish However, a 4-hour candle close below this mark would likely trigger a deeper correction toward the $68,720 level, which represents the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent upward wave. Holding this support provides the foundation for a fresh leg up. On the bullish side, a decisive close above $79,000 would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend toward much higher targets. Uray identifies a major resistance cluster between $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000. Should the price face a rejection at these elevated levels, traders should expect a return to the previous support zones, ranging from $73,371 to the $66,000 region. Examining the daily timeframe, the $65,666 level serves as a pivot point. As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above this threshold, the overall structure remains skewed toward a potential rise. A failure to hold the $65,666 level would shift the focus to lower support levels at $63,823, $62,433, and $60,000. The most critical warning comes at the $60,000 mark; a daily close below this psychological and technical barrier would likely extend the corrective phase significantly. Bitcoin Bounces Strongly As Week Kicks Off In his most recent update, analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted a relatively strong upward bounce for Bitcoin on Monday. This movement is particularly significant as it occurs during a period where markets typically trend toward a risk-off stance ahead of the weekly opening. The ability of Bitcoin to push higher against this cautious backdrop suggests underlying strength in current demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Confirmed, But Is It Real Or A Bull Trap? A key factor in this analysis is the recent decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets. While Bitcoin has shown resilience and upward momentum, gold has trended downward. Looking at the weekly outlook, the presence of a price gap at the $77,300 level remains a primary focal point for traders. Given the strength of the recent bounce and the existing technical vacuum toward that higher level, Bitcoin is expected to fill this gap and achieve new highs before the current week concludes. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

For over a decade, Bitcoin has been championed as a financial system beyond the reach of government institutions or elite influence. Its decentralization narrative, built on open-source code, distributed consensus, and a global network of participants, has made it a symbol of financial independence. However, fresh waves of speculation tied to the Epstein files are now challenging that perception, pushing the conversation into more uncomfortable territory. Who Actually Influences The Bitcoin Network In Practice? A narrative is spreading that the Jeffrey Epstein Files reveal that Israel hijacked control of the Bitcoin network over a decade ago. The Matrixbot revealed on X that Israel was paying salaries of 60% of BTC core developers and offered highly exclusive gifts behind the scenes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pioneer Adam Back Addresses Mention In Epstein Files Furthermore, Epstein and Israel were also the major investors in Blockstream, a company that works with Tether and exerts significant influence over BTC. They can manipulate the BTC price by issuing unbacked Tether, controlling the network code because they hired most of the developers, and own a majority of the nodes. According to Matrixbot, this claim shows that Israel has direct access to the code and influence over the BTC. The idea of decentralization is clearly illusory, and it is deeply concerning that the network could be manipulated by a single state operating behind the scenes. Record Realized Losses Signal Extreme Market Stress In Bitcoin This bear cycle has driven Bitcoin into one of the largest aggressive realized losses in dollar regimes in its history. OnChainMind has noted that at the peak of the downturn, the network recorded nearly $1 billion per day in net realized losses. Data shows that the bulk of the early selling pressure originated from investors who had entered the market just 3 to 6 months ago, often referred to as weak hands.  Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Data Turns Cautious: Supply Rises, But SOPR Stays Below 1.0 Currently, a more resilient cohort of holders who held for 6 to 12 months is beginning to show signs of strain. Historically, when progressively stronger hands begin to capitulate, it signals a late-stage bear market dynamic. Crypto trader known as ctm_trader has also pointed out that Bitcoin has been grinding higher, with 7 out of the last 8 two-day candles closing green. This kind of non-stop upward price action is often difficult to sustain, leading to massive liquidations. The last time BTC printed a similar structure, the price pulled back nearly half the move within hours, triggering large-scale liquidations and wiping out millions. Now, the liquidity sitting below is even larger. At the same time, indicators are flashing an overbought market. As the recent price action and structure are bearish, and BTC just swept the recent highs, it raises the possibility that the market could be positioning for a larger move to the downside. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Publicly listed Bitcoin miners liquidated more than 32,000 Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2026, marking a record sell-off as the industry's largest operators redirect billions in capital toward artificial intelligence. This historic shift is unfolding precisely as the economics of Bitcoin validation reach a critical pressure point. With mining profitability hovering near cyclical lows, […]
The post Public miners dump record BTC and are pivoting to AI — is Bitcoin’s security backbone starting to hollow out? appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $78,400 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $73,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $76,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $75,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $75,500 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $77,500 resistance zone. BTC formed a top near $78,350 and started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $76,500 level. The price dipped below the $75,500 and $75,000 levels. A low was formed at $73,637 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,343 swing high to the $73,637 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $76,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $73,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $74,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,000 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,343 swing high to the $73,637 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,000 level. The first major support is near the $73,500 level. The next support is now near the $72,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $74,000, followed by $73,500. Major Resistance Levels – $75,500 and $76,000.

Michael Saylor’s company has already lined up the money. Now the question is how much Bitcoin it plans to buy with it. Related Reading: Alibaba AI Model Puts XRP Price Between $7 And $42 By Year-End Saylor’s Signal Fires Up The Market Strategy’s executive chairman posted his well-known “Orange Dots” chart on X over the weekend, adding just three words: “Think even Bigger.” The chart maps every Bitcoin purchase the company has ever made. In crypto circles, its appearance has become a reliable preview of an imminent acquisition announcement — and Monday is the day Strategy most commonly makes those announcements public. The post landed after a string of major purchases. On April 13, Strategy spent $1 billion on Bitcoin. The week before that, it dropped $330 million. Both buying rounds were preceded by the same chart. This time, Saylor’s caption suggests the next move could top them both. A War Chest Already Sitting Ready The fuel for that purchase appears to already be in place. Strategy’s STRC instrument has raised enough capital to fund up to $1.76 billion in Bitcoin acquisitions, based on reports tracking the company’s fundraising activity. The company routinely uses proceeds from STRC to bankroll its Bitcoin buying program, so the timing of that capital raise lines up with the weekend post. At the time of writing, Strategy holds 780,897 Bitcoin across its corporate treasury. The company’s average purchase price sits at $75,577 per coin. At current market prices, the entire stash is valued at roughly $58 billion — a figure that would shift significantly with any large new purchase. Bitcoin Price Holds Flat Despite The News The market has not moved much on Saylor’s hint. Bitcoin was trading around $75,500, down less than 1% in the 24 hours following the post. Geopolitical pressure has been a drag on price action, with US President Donald Trump accusing Iran of violating ceasefire terms — a development that has kept risk appetite subdued across financial markets. Related Reading: XRP Expansion Into Solana Sparks Fresh Demand, Ripple CEO Says One signal watched closely by analysts did break out over the weekend, though. Bitcoin Dominance — the share of total crypto market value held by Bitcoin — pushed above a key resistance level on the three-day chart, clearing a descending trendline it had been stuck under for some time. Reports from crypto analysts indicate that if the breakout holds, more capital could rotate into Bitcoin at the expense of smaller coins. For Strategy’s playbook, that kind of market shift would not be unwelcome. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has confirmed a breakout from its macro downtrend on the linear chart, signaling a potential shift in broader market structure. However, with the price now sitting at a key resistance zone on the logarithmic chart, uncertainty remains. The coming sessions will be crucial in determining whether this move develops into a sustained bullish trend or a potential bull trap. Macro Breakout Signals Possible End Of Bear Cycle Historically, Bitcoin bear markets conclude once the price begins to steadily climb above the macro downtrend on linear charts. Following yesterday’s daily close, Scient notes that we have officially confirmed a breakout from this primary trendline. This shift in market structure has prompted a strategic search for high-potential setups across various altcoins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Higher: What The Market Data Says Could Happen Next Despite the linear breakout, the question remains whether this move is a genuine trend reversal or a temporary deviation. While the linear chart shows a clear breach of resistance, the log chart tells a different story. Currently, the price is sitting exactly at a major resistance level on the logarithmic scale. The validity of this move depends heavily on how the price reacts to these overlapping levels in the coming sessions. If this move turns out to be a fakeout, the price will lose momentum quickly. In that case, Bitcoin would likely fall back below the linear resistance. To confirm true strength across both linear and log perspectives, the price needs to push into the mid-$80,000 region. Holding that level for several daily closes would effectively flip the macro structure from bearish to bullish, turning all subsequent price dips into high-conviction buying opportunities for long-term investors. The upcoming seven to ten days represent a pivotal window for Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory and the broader market. This timeframe will determine if the current breakout can overcome the log resistance or if the market requires further consolidation.  Bitcoin Nears $80,000 Target As Momentum Holds Steady According to Crypto Candy, Bitcoin is currently moving in alignment with previous projections, showing strong momentum as it nears the primary target of $80,000. The analyst notes that the asset has almost reached this milestone, and if the current buying pressure persists, the price is expected to enter the $80,000 zone shortly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply On Crypto Exchanges Drying Up As Accumulation Gains Steam While the upward trajectory is clear, potential short-term retracements before the final target is hit are likely. These minor pullbacks are considered natural market breathers and do not shift the broader bullish outlook.  The current bullish bias remains intact as long as Bitcoin sustains its position above the $73,000 level. This price point serves as the definitive line in the sand for the current move. With this, the path toward $80,000 remains the most likely scenario for the immediate future. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin seems to have finally broken out of weeks of stagnation with an 11% rally, signaling a notable shift in its market momentum. Expectedly, this move has drawn renewed attention from various market participants who may be eager to re-enter the market. However, an influential on-chain analyst has come out to explain why Bitcoin traders should be cautious during this phase of the cycle. According to the market pundit, the most optimal entry point might actually not be close to current price levels. MVRV Ratio, Realized Price Reveal Short-Term Strength, But Not Market Top In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst GugaOnchain delved into the reasons why it might not be time to re-enter the Bitcoin market. The pundit began by highlighting changes in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, alongside that from the Realized Price metric. Related Reading: Bitwise Research Shows How Much Loss Your Bitcoin Incurs Depending On How Long You Hold According to GugaOnchain, the MVRV ratio currently sits above its 30-day moving average of 1.2947, indicating that Bitcoin’s recent upward price movement has gained validity. Supporting this trend, the Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has also shown increased buying aggression, reinforcing the notion that market participants are actively pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, the bigger macroeconomic picture shows that the market is yet to enter an overheated phase. This is because the current MVRV reading around 1.3856 is significantly lower than the SMA-365 (known as the macro line), which stands at around 1.8620. Technical Indicators Signal Overextended Bitcoin Market — Correction Next? From a price action perspective, though, the Bitcoin price might indeed be due for a retracement. According to the market pundit, Bitcoin recently broke out of an ascending channel resistance on the daily timeframe — a move typical of bullish continuations.  However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now showing signs of strain. This is due to recent RSI readings at 67.85, which stands near the overbought region at 70.  As such, the Bitcoin market has higher chances of a pullback in the near-term. The analyst then concluded that it would be best to buy Bitcoin “not at this resistance breakout,” but at the bottom of the retracement instead.  In the scenario where the Bitcoin price pulls back, the crypto expert explained that this would be towards a “channel support” — specifically at levels between $70,000 and $65,000. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $77,014, reflecting a 2.8% jump since the past day.  Related Reading: 13 Years Of Data Says Bitcoin Price Has Not Bottomed Yet, Analyst Explains The Trend Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Hanzo has predicted that Bitcoin will rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $170,000 in the next bull run. He also revealed what level investors should look to buy BTC in this bear market as they target this potential rally to $170,000.  Bitcoin To Rally To $170,000 In Next Bull Run In an X post, Hanzo stated that Bitcoin is going to $170,000 and advised investors to buy BTC at $58,000 and sell it at $165,000. His statement suggests that the flagship crypto is likely to bottom out at $58,000 in this bear market. Meanwhile, his accompanying chart showed that BTC could reach $170,000 by 2029, which would mark the peak of the next bull market.   Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 Meanwhile, it is worth noting that his prediction comes amid a Bitcoin relief rally to as high as $78,000 yesterday, with the flagship crypto reaching its highest level since February. The relief rally came as Iran announced that it has reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The rally also comes amid optimism that the U.S.-Iran war could end soon.  However, Hanzo’s prediction indicates that the bear market isn’t over for Bitcoin despite this relief rally and that the flagship crypto is still likely to crash to as low as $58,000 before it bottoms. Crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who called the BTC top last year, also described this recent rally as a bull trap.  In an X post, the analyst pointed out that he had previously mentioned that Bitcoin would see a strong bull trap before going down. He added that the next BTC crash will also affect the U.S. stock market and predicted it could happen within the next one to two months.  A Correction Is Likely To Happen Sooner Rather Than Later  Crypto analyst Colin opined that a Bitcoin correction is likely to happen sooner rather than later. This came as he questioned whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be a sell-the-news event. He added that the market has likely already priced in this event over the last 12 days, which is why BTC’s recovery began earlier.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Chances Of Bitcoin Price Crashing Again The analyst also mentioned that Bitcoin is currently at an interesting crossroads as it looks to break out of a descending channel. His accompanying chart showed that BTC will need to break above $78,000 to invalidate the current bearish trend. However, Colin suggested that there is a high likelihood that $78,000 is the local top, with another downtrend on the horizon.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,200, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP has followed the broader rebound in crypto markets as geopolitical conditions appear to be easing. With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility—however uncertain—of progress toward an end to the Iran–US conflict, risk appetite has improved.  In that environment, XRP has surged and briefly pushed toward the $1.51 level on Friday for the first time in almost a month, alongside a set of catalysts that could determine whether the rally gains real momentum—or quickly unwinds. The Timeline That Could Make Or Break XRP In his latest report, market expert Sam Daodu points out that while the near-term outlook for XRP looks promising, it hinges on three dates coming up in the next two weeks. The first factor is tied to the macro story itself: a possible extension of the Iran–US ceasefire. The closest deadline is April 22, when the Iran ceasefire is set to expire.  Daodu links the timing of this expiry directly to market risk, arguing that if tensions return and the conflict resumes, the broader crypto market would probably fall again—dragging XRP down with it. Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Hit $90,000 And Trigger A New Altcoin Rally? Expert Cites 6 Major Catalysts The second major date is tied to US regulation, and it is arguably the bigger one for XRP’s longer-term recovery: the CLARITY Act markup that the Senate Banking Committee is targeting for late April.  If the CLARITY Act is delayed beyond May, he suggests the bill would likely be shelved until 2027. In that scenario, the expert asserts XRP would lose its biggest remaining catalyst for 2026.  The third key date is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28–29. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%.  Daodu argues that, on its own, the meeting may not move XRP much. The bigger issue is what happens if geopolitical risk and regulatory momentum both disappoint at the same time.  If the Iran ceasefire collapses and the CLARITY Act stalls, a hawkish surprise from the Fed would likely worsen conditions. In other words, it is not just each event standing alone; it is the interaction between them that could shape the next phase of the market. Potential Outcomes For The Next Two Weeks Against that backdrop, Daodu offers three price scenarios for XRP, framing them around what happens with the ceasefire, the CLARITY Act, and the broader market over roughly the next two weeks.  In his bullish case, XRP could move into a range of $1.50 to $1.90. That would depend on the Senate Banking Committee scheduling the CLARITY Act markup before the end of April and on the Iran ceasefire being extended beyond April 22.  Daodu believes XRP could aim for the 200-day moving average near $1.90 by May. Still, he cautions that reaching that point would require sustained ETF inflows and continued strength in Bitcoin (BTC). Related Reading: Circle (CRCL) Sued Over $280M Drift Protocol Hack—What Plaintiffs Claim In a base-case outlook, Daodu forecasts XRP trading between $1.35 and $1.50. This scenario assumes the ceasefire extends past April 22, but the CLARITY Act markup is pushed to May.  In the bearish scenario, Daodu sees the altcoin potentially falling into a range of $1.15 to $1.30. This would be triggered if the war resumes after April 22 and oil prices spike above $100 again, which would likely pressure the entire crypto market.  In that case, Daodu says a move back below $1.30 becomes more likely. If Bitcoin also breaks down below $70,000 at the same time, XRP could retest the $1.15 support area.  At the time of writing, the altcoin is trading at around $1.49, still recording major gains of 10% and 13% over the seven- and fourteen-day periods, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has edged into the negative territory, a sign that could prove to be bearish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Declined Recently As highlighted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has seen a flip for the first time in nine days. The “Coinbase Premium Gap” here refers to an indicator that measures the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). When the value of this metric is positive, it means the cryptocurrency is trading at a higher value on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend implies users of the former are applying a higher amount of buying pressure or lower amount of selling pressure than the latter’s traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Stalls As 60,000 BTC From STHs Hits Exchanges On the other hand, the indicator being below the zero mark suggests Binance users are the ones participating in more buying as the asset is going for a higher rate on there. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap surged to a notable positive level earlier in the week, suggesting that Coinbase users were accumulating. Alongside this rise in the metric, BTC observed a recovery rally. In recent years, the cryptocurrency’s spot value correlating with the Coinbase Premium Gap is something that has often been observed. The reason behind this could be down to the fact that American institutional entities, which prefer to use Coinbase, have lately seen their presence grow in the digital asset sector. From the chart, it’s visible that while the Coinbase Premium Gap shot up earlier, its value has declined to a level just below zero recently. This could indicate that the US whales have dropped their accumulation. Naturally, if a proper drop into the negative zone now occurs, BTC could end up feeling a bearish effect, similar to the pullback from the second half of March. Related Reading: Ethereum Retail Hands Still In Disbelief, Keep Selling Into Strength Though, while this development in the indicator has occurred, Bitcoin has actually surged so far. BTC Breaks Past $76,000 For The First Time Since February Bitcoin furthered its recovery during the last 24 hours as its price approached the $77,000 mark before retracing back to $76,500. A result of this surge has been that more than $209 million in bearish Bitcoin bets have been liquidated over the past day, according to data from CoinGlass. In the cryptocurrency derivatives sector as a whole, over $456 million in short positions have been flushed inside this window. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort is still expanding, but a key profitability gauge has slipped back below neutral, creating a more cautious read on market structure even as older supply continues to move out of circulation. In an April 17 market note, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply climbed from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, an increase of 3.06 million BTC in three months. At the same time, LTH SOPR, measured on a seven-day moving average, fell to 0.979 and has now remained below 1.0 for five straight days. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Data Turns Cautious “The long-term holder cohort continues to expand,” he wrote. “This combination matters: the volume of coins in the LTH cohort is growing, but part of the spent old coins is already exiting at a loss.” In other words, more coins are aging into long-term holder status, but some of the coins that are being spent by that cohort are no longer being sold profitably. The supply side of the equation still looks structurally constructive. Adler said the Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply chart shows “a sharp increase in the volume of coins in the LTH cohort,” rising from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. He argued that the trend signals “an expansion of long-term holding and a compression of liquid supply,” while also noting that part of the increase reflects existing coins simply maturing into the 155-day threshold rather than fresh purchases alone. Related Reading: This Indicator Used To Predict Bitcoin Bottoms Is Flashing Below $50,000 A rising LTH Realized Supply series does not automatically imply new demand, but it does point to more supply becoming inactive for longer periods. Adler contrasted the current setup with the 2022 bear market, when LTH Realized Supply reached 15.31 million BTC in November before beginning to decline as older coins were spent. For now, he said, the current profile is more consistent with consolidation near $75,000 than with a broad distribution event. The warning sign is coming from holder behavior at the point of sale. Adler described repeated dips in LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February, a sign that long-term holders who are spending coins have periodically been doing so at a loss. The latest reading, 0.979, follows a deeper episode in late March and early April, when the indicator dropped to 0.798 and stayed below 1.0 for seven consecutive days before briefly recovering between April 5 and April 11. Adler stopped short of calling that capitulation. “The current picture is a series of recurring shallow dips below 1.0 with quick recoveries, not a prolonged capitulation,” he wrote. “The key question now is whether the current series will hold above the March lows (0.798) or SOPR will break below them. A repeat move deeper, combined with a simultaneous reversal of Realized Supply downward, is the real red flag for a regime change.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert That framing is important because it sets clear conditions for what would turn the current signal from local stress into something more serious. As long as SOPR remains in what Adler described as a shallow-loss zone and rebounds quickly, the implication is short-term pressure rather than a full bearish reset. In the note’s FAQ section, he said such brief dislocations have historically functioned as entry points rather than confirmation of a broader downside impulse. The bearish case, by Adler’s own definition, requires two things to happen together: LTH SOPR staying meaningfully below 1.0 and deepening, while LTH Realized Supply rolls over. That would suggest not just loss realization by old hands, but a broader shift from cohort expansion into active distribution. For now, Adler’s conclusion lands in the middle. The backdrop remains structurally positive because long-term holder supply is still rising, but the fresh loss-selling signal means the market is no longer cleanly constructive. The next move in SOPR, especially relative to the March low, may determine whether this is just another local stress episode or the start of a more meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s holder regime. At press time, BTC traded at $77,880. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is now printing green candlesticks on the weekly and daily timeframes, and this raises the question of whether the worst has already passed or maybe the floor is still months away.  An interesting analysis of Bitcoin’s price action over a multi-year time span pushes back against the growing optimism, pointing to a pattern that has held for more than a decade and suggesting that time, not just price, may still be working against a confirmed bottom. Every Bitcoin Bear Market Has Taken Over A Year To Bottom Going back to 2013, Bitcoin’s bear market cycles have followed a consistent sequence when it comes to the one metric that matters most, which is time. Each Bitcoin bear cycle differed slightly in severity, but the time requirement it took for it to end was surprisingly consistent.  Related Reading: Why Did The Bitcoin Price Rally Past $75,000 Despite The US-Iran War? According to a technical chart noted by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Xremin, the bear market in 2024 stretched to around 426 days before a bottom formed. The 2017 cycle followed with roughly 363 days, while the bear market after 2021’s rally took about 376 days to complete.  The current cycle, however, is only about 190 days into its correction phase. This is, of course, taking Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000 in October 2025 as the starting point of the bear market correction. That places it at just over half the duration seen in previous cycles.  Bitcoin is already down about 43% from that all-time high. However, calling a bottom at this stage, according to the analyst, would mean assuming that Bitcoin has suddenly broken a 13-year pattern without any clear structural change to justify it. Can The Bear Market Already Be In? Calling the bottom at this point in time would mean that this cycle has resolved itself in under half the time it has taken every single previous cycle to find its floor. However, the bull case for an early bottom is not without substance. Market participants with this view could easily argue that the Bitcoin and crypto ecosystem as a whole now has structural dynamics that did not exist in any previous bear market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again An example is the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now collectively hold approximately 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap, the highest being around 10% during the October 2025 peak. Another example is the Department of Labor publishing a proposed rule in March 2026 creating a safe harbor for retirement plan fiduciaries who add crypto to 401(k) menus. These are meaningful developments, and they may well reduce the severity of the eventual drawdown compared to previous cycles. However, they only speak to price depth, not to time.  Institutional demand may prevent Bitcoin from falling to as low as $50,000 or $40,000, but it does not automatically hasten the psychological and market-structure process by which a genuine cycle bottom forms. The historically reliable four-year halving cycle suggests a durable bottom may not form until closer to Q4 2026. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitwise Research has shed light on how holding durations can impact the ROI and outcomes of Bitcoin (BTC) investments, revealing a major distinction between short-term risk and long-term performance. The data shows that while short holding periods carry significant chances of loss, extended investment timeframes dramatically reduce downside risks. The findings are drawing significant attention in the crypto community as investors reassess their strategy in the ongoing bear market.  Why Holding Bitcoin For Long Carries Less Risk New research compiled by Bitwise and shared by crypto analyst Bitcoin Archive indicates that the probability of incurring losses on Bitcoin declines as the holding period increases, based on historical performance spanning more than a decade. The chart, sourced from Glassnode, shows that short-term exposure to BTC carries the highest level of uncertainty and the greatest likelihood of loss.  Related Reading: XRP Sentiment Is Sitting At Levels That Have Led To A Price Rally, But Is This Time Different? The numbers on the chart highlight just how unstable the Bitcoin price can be in the near term. If someone buys and sells within a day, their chances of losing money increase substantially. Even holding for a month does not improve things much, suggesting that short term price movements are largely unpredictable and driven by noise, speculation, and rapid sentiment shifts.  Looking at the chart’s numbers, a one-day holding period has a 47.1% chance of loss, while a one-week period shows a similar risk of 44.7%. Even at monthly intervals, the probability of loss stays elevated, reflecting the risks faced by active traders. Bitwise shows that holding BTC for just one month results in a marginal decline to 43.2%, underscoring the strong volatility across shorter timeframes.  However, as the holding period increases, the risk begins to decline noticeably. By the time an investor holds Bitcoin for several months or up to a year, the probability of loss drops, but remains significant. The chart shows that at the quarterly level, the probability of loss decreases to 37.6%. For over a year, the likelihood of loss drops further to 24.3%, highlighting a clear contrast when holding for just a day.  Bitcoin Loss Probability During Multi-Year Holds Most success stories and outsized returns in the crypto market typically come from whales or investors who have held BTC for 5 to more than 10 years. The profit margins of these investors are significantly larger than those of short-term traders who move in and out of positions based on market conditions and short-term hype. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Says It’s ‘Almost Certain’ That Price Will Reach $1,000 In This Timeframe Bitwise research data confirms this trend, showing that meaningful reductions in loss probability only appear over multi-year holding periods. Investors who hold BTC for over three years see their probability of loss fall sharply to 0.7%, while holding for beyond five years reduces it further to 0.2%. Across the ten-year range covered by the data, there were no recorded instances of investors selling at a loss, indicating that all observed holding periods of that length resulted in gains.   The findings suggest that while Bitcoin remains highly unpredictable in the short term, its long-term performance has consistently and historically favored patient investors.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to announce that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open for passage — a declaration that came hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the waterway would be unblocked for all commercial vessels during the remaining period of the US-Iran ceasefire. Related Reading: Bitcoin, Ethereum Trading Expands As Charles Schwab Enters Crypto Market Trump Weighs In As Bitcoin Climbs Bitcoin reacted fast. The leading cryptocurrency jumped sharply after Araghchi’s announcement and rose above $77,000 — its highest mark since February. At the time of reporting, it was trading around $77,300, up more than 1.8% on the day, according to CoinMarketCap data. Trump had expressed optimism the previous day that the war with Iran would soon end. His Truth Social post citing Iran’s announcement added weight to what was already a significant shift in the region’s security posture. “The Strait will be open for the period of the remaining US-Iran ceasefire, which expires on April 22,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. The ceasefire between the US and Iran has a hard deadline — April 22. The Strait reopening is tied to that window, and Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization has already announced a coordinated route that vessels will be required to follow. Lebanon Deal Unlocks The Wider Equation The decision to reopen the Strait did not happen in isolation. Iran had long maintained that Lebanon was part of the conditions it agreed to in its ceasefire with the US. When Israel and Lebanon struck a 10-day ceasefire deal, it cleared a key condition for Iran to act. The Lebanon agreement, in effect, opened the door for the Hormuz announcement. That chain of events — Lebanon deal, then Hormuz reopening, then Bitcoin rally — unfolded within a compressed period, catching markets mid-session. The crypto market responded across the board, with broader sentiment lifted by reduced tensions in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. A significant share of global oil exports passes through it. Any closure or threat of closure tends to rattle energy markets and risk assets alike. Its reopening, even on a temporary basis, removes one source of uncertainty for traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pressure Builds As Miners Dump 32K BTC In Just 3 Months What Happens After April 22? The current arrangement has a short shelf life. The ceasefire between the US and Iran expires in five days. Whether it gets extended — and whether the Strait remains open past that point — depends on negotiations that are still ongoing. Reports indicate that Iran views the Lebanon ceasefire as validation of its broader position in the talks. A resolution to the wider conflict, if reached, would likely be seen as a positive signal for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. For now, the price reaction suggests traders are pricing in a degree of cautious optimism. No formal extension to the US-Iran ceasefire has been announced. Featured image from SeaTradeMaritimeNews, chart from TradingView

Charles Schwab is charging into the crypto space with fees lower than its closest rival — and a customer base that dwarfs most financial platforms in America. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pressure Builds As Miners Dump 32K BTC In Just 3 Months A Slow Roll, Not A Full Launch The Texas-based brokerage has begun offering spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading through its Schwab Crypto platform, operated via Charles Schwab Premier Bank. But don’t expect every customer to get access right away. The rollout starts with an internal employee pilot, moves to a client waitlist, then opens more broadly through the rest of Q2 2026. Customers in New York and Louisiana are currently left out. When it does fully open, the potential reach is staggering. Schwab manages close to $1.50 trillion in assets and holds accounts for up to 46 million active brokerage clients, served by 16,000 financial advisors. That kind of scale puts Schwab in a league of its own among brokerages now entering the crypto market. The firm set its trading fee at 0.75% — undercutting Fidelity Crypto’s 1% rate. Whether that gap is enough to pull customers from established platforms remains to be seen, but it gives Schwab a concrete edge on price. Robinhood Still Holds Some Ground Schwab won’t have the field to itself. Robinhood, which has been in the crypto trading space for years, offers more than 15 cryptocurrencies, operates in the EU and Asia-Pacific markets, and allows users to transfer crypto to external wallets. Schwab, for now, is starting with just Bitcoin and Ethereum. Reports indicate Schwab plans to add more cryptocurrencies down the line, along with AI tools, as it looks to capture a bigger share of demand from investors who want crypto alongside their traditional holdings. The brokerage described the crypto push as part of a broader effort to grow revenue sources. Earnings Miss Clouds An Otherwise Strong Quarter The crypto announcement landed on the same day Schwab posted its first-quarter 2026 results. Net revenue climbed 16% year over year to $6.48 billion — a record — but fell just short of the $6.50 billion analysts had expected. That narrow miss hit the stock hard. Shares of Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) dropped 7.70% on the day, trading at $92.51. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Bitcoin touched $75,000 on the same day, pushed higher by strong inflows into spot ETFs and optimism around a potential US-Iran ceasefire. Ethereum moved in the opposite direction, slipping 0.75% to $2,355 after a large holder offloaded roughly 120,000 ETH — nearly $60 million worth — taking profit on a long position. Schwab’s entry adds another major name to the growing list of traditional financial institutions now offering direct access to crypto assets, bringing Bitcoin and Ethereum further into the mainstream of everyday investing. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has reclaimed and held above the $75,000 region after the latest rebound, but derivatives data shows the recovery lacks broad conviction. Bitcoin In The Middle Of A Credibility Problem Bloomberg claims Bitcoin has a credibility problem right now. Funding rates on perpetual futures have stayed negative for around a month and a half, meaning leveraged traders are still paying to stay short even as spot grinds higher. This divide ranks among the largest this year between spot price action and how derivatives traders are positioned. Bitcoin has climbed about 14% off its April lows, helped by renewed inflows into US‑listed ETFs and fresh accumulation by Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury firm, MicroStrategy. Related Reading: Hyperliquid’s HIP‑3 Open Interest Skyrockets— Is 24/7 Tokenized Equity About To Rewrite Wall Street? Such a gap between positioning and price rarely lasts long, and it usually ends brutally for someone. When Bitcoin keeps grinding higher, traders shorting the move rack up losses and can be forced to rush in and buy back their positions, driving an abrupt, self‑reinforcing spike known as a short squeeze. The longer this standoff drags on, the more violent that eventual reversal can become. BTC OI-Weighted Funding Rate. Source: Bloomberg. The data brought by Bloomberg shows that net flows into US‑listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have hit about $332 million so far this week, with roughly $26 million added on Thursday alone. By 8 a.m. in London on Friday, Bitcoin was changing hands near the $75,000 mark. This has been one of the longest bearish funding streaks since the post‑FTX capitulation period in late 2022, when sentiment was similarly washed‑out. A Short-Squeeze Risk Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, told Bloomberg that “Traders are actively building short positions and betting against a breakout, creating conditions where a short squeeze becomes more likely if upward momentum persists”. The current structure looks like a textbook squeeze setup. Negative funding shows that short sellers still dominate leverage and are paying to stay in the trade, even as Bitcoin grinds higher. That slow grind means many of those shorts are already underwater but haven’t capitulated yet, leaving them vulnerable. At the same time, spot liquidity looks thin, so any sharp move can quickly ripple through derivatives and turn into a fast, cascading squeeze. Bloomberg explains that the short-heavy backdrop looks even more fragile given the wave of bullish catalysts hitting the market at the same time, any one of which could spark the kind of upside jolt that forces bears to scramble out of their positions. A Soft Recovery For Bitcoin? MicroStrategy has disclosed two purchases worth a combined $2.6 billion in just the past two weeks, a steady bid that FalconX senior derivatives trader Bohan Jiang says has helped support prices. On top of that, Charles Schwab has unveiled plans to roll out spot crypto trading this year and floated the idea that clients could dedicate up to 8.8% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. This signals just how much fresh demand could still be waiting in the wings. Over the past week alone, US‑listed Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $800 million, flipping from the outflows seen earlier in the year to strong net demand. Every new leg of ETF buying pushes prices higher and makes it more expensive for short sellers to sit in losing trades, ratcheting up the squeeze pressure that has been quietly building in the derivatives market for weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Are The Earliest Signal Of A Quantum Selloff: Joshua Lim According to Bloomberg, bearish traders could still come out ahead if this latest bounce ultimately breaks down. Deribit data shows options desks paying up for downside protection, with notable open interest clustered in put contracts around the $60,000 and $50,000 strikes. They called this a soft recovery. Laurens Fraussen, research analyst at Kaiko, believes that Bitcoin might see rally that is sure to “catch some people off guard”. Fraussen claims that a break above $76,000 could see BTC extend toward $85,000. At the moment of writing, BTC trades for almost $76k on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview. Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview.

About 20% of the Bitcoin mining industry is operating at a loss right now. That single fact explains much of what has been unfolding across the sector in early 2026, as publicly traded miners race to sell off holdings just to keep the lights on. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Profits Squeezed To The Bone Hashprice — the daily revenue a miner earns per unit of computing power — has been sliding since July 2025. It now sits at roughly $33 per petahash per second per day, according to data from Hashrate Index. The breakeven point for many miners, particularly those running older machines, is around $35. That gap, small as it looks on paper, is pushing a large chunk of the industry into the red. Major publicly traded miners — among them MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer — collectively offloaded more than 32,000 BTC during the first three months of 2026, according to TheEnergyMag. That figure eclipses everything those same companies sold across all four quarters of 2025. It also surpasses the previous quarterly record of roughly 20,000 BTC, set during Q2 2022 when the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem sent markets into a tailspin. Three compounding forces drove miners to that record: a rising network hashrate that has made competition fiercer, reduced block rewards following the most recent halving, and broader economic headwinds that have kept Bitcoin prices under pressure. Miner Reserves Have Been Draining For Years The selling in Q1 2026 did not come out of nowhere. Data from CryptoQuant shows that total Bitcoin held by miners across the board has been falling since 2023. At the close of that year, miners collectively held more than 1.86 million BTC. That number has since dropped to approximately 1.8 million. The trend is slow but steady — and the first quarter’s record sales may have accelerated it further. Asset manager CoinShares, in its Q1 2026 Bitcoin Mining Report, warned that more pain could be coming. Higher-cost operators should expect continued capitulation in the first half of this year, the firm said, unless Bitcoin’s price stages a meaningful recovery. Think ₿igger. pic.twitter.com/L1yH3n0k7t — Michael Saylor (@saylor) April 12, 2026 Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Treasury Buyers Step In As Miners Step Back While miners sell, corporate buyers are moving in the opposite direction. Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company by holdings, has continued adding to its position. Co-founder Michael Saylor signaled earlier this week that another purchase was in the works, sharing the company’s BTC acquisition history chart — a move his followers have come to read as a near-certain signal of an imminent buy. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s quantum risk may show up in derivatives markets well before any compromised coins move on-chain, according to FalconX co-head of markets Joshua Lim, who used an X thread on April 16 to map out what he sees as the most tradable signals around a potential “q-day” event. Lim’s core argument is that the market problem is not simply whether Bitcoin can migrate to post-quantum cryptography. It is also whether the network can politically resolve what to do with Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins and other old outputs that may never participate in such a migration. Quantum Risk Could Hit Bitcoin Through Derivatives Lim framed the issue as two separate questions. The first is technical: how Bitcoin could move away from elliptic curve cryptography used to secure private keys. The second is more fraught. “How to deal with the fundamentally non-mathematical and wholly sociopolitical question of what to do with Satoshi’s coins,” he wrote, arguing that the largest risk around quantum computing is not just cryptographic breakage but the governance crisis that could follow. He said a migration path for most of Bitcoin’s UTXOs is at least conceivable, pointing to BIP 361 as one example of a proposal that addresses both post-quantum migration and the handling of Satoshi-era coins. But that only solves part of the problem. Lim estimated that Satoshi’s holdings amount to roughly 1.1 million BTC, while other old or lost coins in pay-to-public-key addresses could push the total exposed supply to as much as 1.7 million BTC, which he called a “$127bn question.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert Those coins, he argued, are different because they likely would not participate in any community-led migration unless Satoshi is still active and willing to move them. That creates two outcomes, neither comfortable for markets. “EITHER Satoshi is still around and can move coins pre q-day, in which case BTC price will tank because the market will re-price the probability of those coins being sold in the future,” Lim wrote. “OR Satoshi is not around and someone will decide to steal the coins via a sufficiently powerful QC.” That is why, in Lim’s telling, Satoshi’s coins are “not a math problem.” The available responses are political. One option would be to burn those coins through governance, a move he said would raise serious questions around immutability, sovereignty, and precedent. The other would be a hard fork that lets the market choose between a chain that neutralizes the coins and one that preserves the current ruleset, even if that leaves open the eventual risk of a quantum-enabled seizure. Lim suggested that even an attempt at the first path could lead to the second. “Our only prophylactic is to EITHER A) burn Satoshi’s coins via governance,” he wrote, before outlining the trade-off, “OR B) create a hard fork and allow for the market to decide which is the true BTC.” In his view, that likely becomes a political contest over Bitcoin’s identity as much as a security response. He added that the most likely quantum thief, if such a scenario emerged, would be “a state-level actor.” From there, Lim shifted from theory to market structure. He contrasted any future fork with Bitcoin’s August 2017 split, which produced BTC and BCH. Back then, he noted, Bitcoin was a roughly $45 billion, mostly retail market, and many holders welcomed the fork because it effectively created an additional asset. Today’s market is different: around $1.5 trillion, far more institutional, and wrapped in ETFs, listed futures, and options. That changes how risk would likely transmit. “A hard fork today, or even the prospect of one, would be an entirely different beast,” Lim wrote. “It would result in extreme volatility and likely downward price action: a large gap down and massive cascading liquidations.” He added that if the community were close to evenly split on whether to burn exposed coins, institutional investors might have a mandate to de-risk ahead of the event, amplifying downside pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That is where derivatives come in. Lim argued the earliest warning signs of q-day risk are most likely to emerge in long-dated options skew, forward basis, and the distribution of open interest across traditional and crypto-native venues. He pointed out that long-dated BTC put skew is near multi-year highs, with downside protection relatively expensive compared with calls, and said the last comparable elevation came around the Three Arrows Capital and FTX collapses in 2022. He also flagged long-dated basis, noting that Bitcoin futures are trading near multi-year lows relative to spot. In Lim’s framework, q-day risk should compress or even invert basis because market participants hedge for downside while others position for a possible fork-related “airdrop,” similar in concept to 2017. Since the timing of any quantum breakthrough would be uncertain, he expects those signals to appear farther out on the curve. Still, he stopped short of saying the market is already pricing an imminent quantum event. Some signals are “flashing red,” he wrote, but they can also be explained by broader systemic risks or secular shifts, including growing institutional participation through venues such as CME and IBIT options. For now, Lim described the picture as mixed. His broader point was simpler: if q-day ever begins to look real, traders likely will not first see it in dormant coins moving. They will see it in derivatives. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,024. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin traders are already betting the wider US-Iran ceasefire will hold. Data from prediction market Polymarket puts the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 at 23%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Markets React To Diplomatic Breakthrough That confidence is showing up in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed to $74,650 on Thursday, bouncing back from an intraday low of around $73,050, according to TradingView data. The move came within hours of US President Donald Trump announcing a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon — a deal that had been quietly taking shape following direct talks between the two countries on US soil the day before. Trump made the announcement on Truth Social, saying both sides had agreed to begin the truce immediately as part of broader efforts toward lasting peace. Short. Direct. And enough to move markets. Nuclear Talks Add To Optimism The Israel-Lebanon deal matters beyond its own terms. Iran had made clear it would walk away from its own ceasefire agreement with the US if Israeli strikes on Lebanon did not stop. With that condition now met, the path to a second round of US-Iran peace talks looks more open. Reports from Pakistani mediators indicate a major step forward on Iran’s nuclear program, which was the main sticking point when the two sides failed to reach a deal in the first round of negotiations last weekend. Bitcoin had already touched a multi-month peak of $76,000 earlier this week, driven by growing optimism that the US-Iran conflict could wind down. The war had weighed heavily on risk assets from its early days, with rising oil prices stoking inflation fears that kept investors cautious. As those concerns ease, money has started moving back into crypto. Ceasefire Extension In Focus Tensions remain, even if they have softened. Trump’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week rattled nerves, though markets have since stabilized. The window for a resolution is narrow. Both the US-Iran truce and the newly announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire are short-term arrangements, not permanent agreements. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Still, the mood among traders has shifted. Pakistani officials are said to be shuttling communications between Washington and Tehran ahead of a potential second round of talks. Based on reports, both governments continue to engage through back channels even as formal negotiations pause. Whether the ceasefires hold — and whether they grow into something more durable — will likely determine where Bitcoin heads next. Featured image from ddnews.gov.in, chart from TradingView

There are many different indicators that analysts have used to predict the Bitcoin bottom in the past, and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is one of them. Mostly, these indicators are known for predicting the bottom because when they have appeared in the past, it did not take long until the Bitcoin price reached the lowest level of the cycle. The interesting thing about the CVDD flashing now is how low it is putting the BTC price before it finds a bottom. CVDD Says Bitcoin Price Is Going Lower The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) was highlighted by crypto analyst TradingShot as an indicator that has predicted Bitcoin’s price bottom in the past. Usually, when this indicator is triggered, it is not long before the bottom is reached. Moreso, the Bitcoin price tends to drop a bit lower than the price the CVDD points to before bottoming. Related Reading: Meme Coin Unicorns That Are Now Basically Dust Again Given how this indicator has performed in the past, it puts into perspective where the Bitcoin price might be in this cycle. Presently, the bulls are still holding above $70,000 while the CVDD is pointing to $49,280. This would mean that the Bitcoin price has actually not reached a bottom and could continue to decline again. In addition to this, the MA200 on the 1-Day chart would need to confirm the bottom as a buy follow-up. When this happens, the crypto analyst says it means that the Bitcoin price has entered another bull cycle. Thus, if the digital asset follows the CVDD, then there would be a more than 30% crash coming. Bull Market Peak Indicators Say Top Is Not In While most analysts in the market are shooting to game the Bitcoin bottom, other indicators are pointing toward the fact that the digital asset hasn’t hit its peak yet. According to the 30 Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators tracked by the Coinglass website, the bull market might not be over yet. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Of The XRP Supply That ETFs Now Control One indicator that is yet to hit is the Bitcoin dominance, which hasn’t shown any signs of retracing. Instead, the pioneer cryptocurrency continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoins in the dust. Also, the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has not peaked, and the Bitcoin short-term holder supply follows the same trajectory. Since none of the 30 indicators have been triggered, the tracker suggests that this might be the time to buy BTC and not sell. However, there are still the macroeconomic and political factors, such as the US-Iran war, to consider, as these could also negatively impact the Bitcoin price and where the bottom might form. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Swan Bitcoin Managing Director John Haar argued on Wednesday that the market’s repeated comparison between the current cycle and the 2022 bear market misses a fundamental point: the backdrop has changed. In a post on X, Haar said Bitcoin’s roughly $65,000 to $70,000 range has acted as a floor for the past two months and may already represent the cycle bottom. His case rests on a simple distinction. The forces that broke Bitcoin in 2022: inflation shock, aggressive monetary tightening, collapsing liquidity and industry-wide contagion are, in his view, either gone or materially weaker today. “Those predicting a further decline are drawing comparisons to 2022,” Haar wrote. “But the macro, regulatory, and institutional landscape today is fundamentally different. The nine structural factors below illustrate why the 2022 analogy is unlikely to hold.” A Different Macro Regime Haar began with the macro backdrop, framing inflation and monetary policy as the first major break from the last cycle. In 2022, he noted, CPI hit a 40-year high, eroding purchasing power and giving the Federal Reserve a clear reason to tighten policy aggressively. Today, he described inflation as having stabilized around 2.5% to 3% year over year, a level he sees as far less threatening to risk assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That argument extends to rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and broad money growth. Haar wrote that 2022 brought “the fastest rate-hiking cycle in modern history,” while the present environment is defined by steady or modestly lower rates. He also pointed to what he described as a return of balance-sheet expansion and a multi-year run of month-over-month M2 growth, framing both as liquidity support rather than a headwind. Fiscal policy features prominently in the thread as well. Haar argued that US deficit spending has remained elevated at roughly 5% to 6% of GDP for more than three years, with no meaningful pullback in sight. Taken together, his message is that the macro engine driving the 2022 unwind has been replaced by one that looks, at minimum, more neutral and potentially supportive. Contagion, Then And Now Haar’s sixth point shifts from macro to crypto market structure. In his telling, 2022 was not simply a drawdown but a cascading institutional failure across tightly connected firms. Terra/Luna, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows Capital, Voyager and FTX collapsed in sequence, amplifying losses and destroying confidence across the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says He contrasted that period with today’s environment by arguing that institutional counterparties are stronger, even if pockets of stress remain. “BlockFills is an example of institutional failure, but its scale is a fraction of the 2022 failures,” Haar wrote. “This cycle, theories circulate regarding engineered cascading selloffs that ultimately caused leveraged crypto funds to implode.” Institutional Bitcoin Demand The final stretch of Haar’s thesis centers on what he sees as the most important difference between cycles: the scale of institutional demand. He wrote that Strategy deployed about $270 million to acquire roughly 8,000 BTC in 2022, compared with $22.5 billion in 2025 for 226,000 BTC and another $8.5 billion year to date in 2026 for 108,000 BTC. He paired that with the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a broader shift in institutional posture. “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are live with billions in AUM,” Haar wrote. “BlackRock is publicly promoting Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is launching their own spot Bitcoin ETF. Vanguard reversed course and will allow their clients to buy spot Bitcoin ETFs.” He also cited Harvard’s endowment as holding a sizable Bitcoin position and argued that the federal policy tone in the US has become more openly supportive. Haar stopped short of calling the floor guaranteed. He included a caveat that Bitcoin can still trade below levels that appear technically or structurally supported and warned that shocks ranging from war to supply-chain disruption to energy shortages could still derail the setup. Still, his broader point was clear: if 2022 was defined by tightening, forced liquidations and institutional absence, this cycle may be defined by liquidity, access and deeper capital pools. At press time, BTC traded at $73,862. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $74,650 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $75,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $73,500 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $73,650 and $73,300 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price found support near $73,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $73,650 and $74,000 resistance levels. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A high was formed at $75,500, and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $73,800, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $75,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,400 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,150 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. The first major support is near the $73,650 level. The next support is now near the $73,300 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $71,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $73,650, followed by $73,300. Major Resistance Levels – $75,000 and $75,500.

A crypto analyst has sparked fresh debate after warning investors to consider swapping their Bitcoin (BTC) for XRP. He argues that the shifting global reserve standards could reshape which digital assets gain institutional favor, potentially positioning XRP as a stronger candidate for long-term adoption. The analyst’s comments align with the central bank’s strict reserve policies, highlighting Bitcoin’s limitations.  Crypto Analyst Tells Investors To Dump BTC For XRP Crypto commentator and XRP advocate John Squire is urging investors to dump their Bitcoin for XRP. In a recent X post, Squire shared a video featuring a discussion by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on central bank reserve policy.  Related Reading: Don’t Celebrate Bitcoin Price Above $70,000, Analyst Says It’s “Very, Very Bad” During the discussion, Largarde reiterated that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to meet the requirements for inclusion in official reserve holdings. The declaration has triggered a wave of reaction across the crypto community, reopening debates about how digital assets fit into the global financial system. This rejection of Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the European Central Bank is the primary reason Squire is urging investors to pivot to XRP. He likely believes that shifting regulatory and institutional preferences could favor XRP over BTC in the long term.  Notably, as the world’s largest and most recognized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has often been touted as a reserve currency despite its volatility and unpredictable nature. Because of its dominant position and widespread institutional adoption, the US government has also repeatedly hinted that Bitcoin could become a strategic reserve currency. However, the same is not true in Europe, where regulators have taken a more cautious, skeptical stance toward Bitcoin, making its inclusion at the ECB far less likely in the near future. Why Bitcoin Does Not Qualify As An ECB Reserve Asset During her discussion, Largarde outlined reasons why the ECB has chosen to exclude Bitcoin entirely from its reserve holdings. She indicated that Bitcoin does not meet the criteria that central banks require for reserve currencies. According to her, Central Bank reserves must remain liquid, secure, and free from concerns linked to illicit activity and financial risks.  Related Reading: Why XRP Price Is About To Stage The Breakout Of The Decade Largarde also noted that reserve assets must prioritize stability and trust within the global financial system, reinforcing the cautious stance banks and financial institutions continue to take toward digital assets like Bitcoin. Her remarks quickly drew attention from the crypto community via Squire’s X account. Many market participants debated which digital asset, if any, could align more closely with future reserve settlement frameworks. While some community members agree with Squire to dump their Bitcoin for XRP, others suggest diversifying into both digital assets to mitigate risk. Regardless of the final decision, Largarde’s statements highlight the continued skepticism surrounding cryptocurrencies. Her comments do not represent a direct policy change but rather a reaffirmation of existing central bank principles in the EU. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders reacted to the recent price surge by sending a significant amount of BTC to centralized exchanges. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deposited 61,000 BTC During The Rally As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin short-term holders have recently participated in a notable amount of exchange deposit activity. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort represents the weak-minded side of the market that tends to be reactive to volatility. Related Reading: Ethereum Retail Hands Still In Disbelief, Keep Selling Into Strength Since the cryptocurrency’s spot price has seen a recovery surge in the last few days, the STHs could be expected to have reacted to it. And indeed, the exchange inflow data would confirm it. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 24-hour sum of the exchange inflows being made by Bitcoin STHs over the last few months. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH exchange inflows saw their 24-hour sum hit a sharp peak during the asset’s surge toward the $76,000 level. This suggests that the new investors transferred large sums to centralized exchanges. Generally, one of the main reasons why holders deposit their coins to these platforms is for selling-related purposes, so a spike in exchange inflows can be a sign of elevated selling pressure in the market. During the recent deposit spree, STH inflows hit 61,000 BTC (worth nearly $4.5 billion at the current exchange rate), which is the highest level since the selloff at the start of February. The February exchange inflow activity followed a sharp crash in the cryptocurrency sector, so it corresponded to panic selling from the STHs. Meanwhile, the latest spike likely represents a push toward profit-taking from these investors instead. In terms of overall exchange inflows, deposit activity hit 11,000 BTC per hour alongside the rally, as CryptoQuant has highlighted in a post on its official X handle. As displayed in the above chart, this spike in the hourly Bitcoin exchange inflow was the largest since December, exceeding the peak from this year’s price crash. Thus, it would appear that the STHs aren’t the only ones who have been looking at the rally as an opportunity to exit. Related Reading: Ethereum MACD Flashes Golden Cross—Price Surged 74%+ Last 3 Times Since the increase in exchange deposit activity has appeared, BTC has seen its price rally stall, indicating that the selling pressure has been strong enough to neutralize the bullish momentum. So far, however, the asset hasn’t outright changed direction, so it only remains to be seen how the market will develop in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,400, up more than 4% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to advance above major hurdles during the recent recovery, with price action failing to break through the $76,000 resistance level.  The market signals also show that several major cryptocurrencies—Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), and XRP—managed to track Bitcoin’s rebound. Even with that follow-through, they have likewise not fully cleared their own higher resistance levels.  Still, some analysts believe a cluster of supportive factors is starting to line up in a way that could lift both BTC and the broader crypto market to levels not seen since the beginning of the year. ‘Perfect Time’ For Bitcoin In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), market analyst Ash Crypto claimed that Bitcoin’s bullish setup could hardly be better at this point, and attributed that view to six catalysts he believes could push prices higher.  Among them, Ash pointed to the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, alongside expectations that the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq could also set new highs soon.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Policy Institute Maps Out Strategy For US Stablecoin Supremacy Across 5 Policy Areas He also cited US economic data, highlighting that the ISM PMI has been above 52 for three straight months. In addition, Ash also referenced geopolitical headlines, arguing that peace talks involving the US, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon could reduce uncertainty and support risk appetite. On the crypto-specific side, Ash emphasized institutional and ecosystem demand. He noted that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are buying billions of BTC each week, framing it as an ongoing source of accumulation.  Finally, he suggested that the pace of development is accelerating in response to the “quantum threat,” which he sees as an additional long-term tailwind.  Why Altcoin Upside Is Possible Putting those pieces together, Ash concluded that conditions are “the perfect time” for Bitcoin to push toward the $85,000–$90,000 range, and that the move would likely be supportive for altcoins as well. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps If the catalysts he highlighted continue to gain traction—starting from equity strength and macro stability, alongside institutional BTC demand—then both Bitcoin’s ascent and an altcoin resurgence could become increasingly plausible. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com