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As quantum computing inches closer to reality, nearly 7 million bitcoin, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million coins, are potentially at risk.

Bitcoin is trading like a rates product now because real yields are the new “gravity” Earlier this month, we saw the macro picture shift in a very real and tangible way. The record of last year's job level changed significantly, and markets treated that update as fresh information to trade on. Two days later, inflation […]
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A modest claim. A bold number. Both are on the table for Bitcoin this week as a debate over how to read short-term streaks in price gains grows louder. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has pointed out that half of the last 24 months showed positive returns. Based on reports, he then gave a nearly 90% chance that Bitcoin would be higher in 10 months. That leap from a simple count to a firm probability is the headline grabber. It should be met with careful questions about how the odds were calculated and what assumptions were built into the model. Counting Positive Months Peterson based his view on a review of monthly performance data. Figures compiled by CoinGlass show that Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 in positive territory, while the remaining six finished lower. According to the data, 50% of the past 24 months ended with gains. Peterson said he tracks this rolling two-year window to spot potential turning points in price trends. 50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now. The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000. Data goes back to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt — Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026 Market Odds And Betting An exchange of bets shows a very different view. Polymarket currently prices December as only a 17% shot at being the best month of 2026, with November a hair higher. Those numbers answer a different question from Peterson’s: they reflect market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether the price will simply be higher at a future date. Betting markets can be blunt tools, but they do pack the collective view of many traders into a single number. Bitcoin Price Action Price has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a roughly $67,000–$68,000 band this week as geopolitical tension in the Middle East tightened. Safe-haven assets like gold and oil jumped on news flows, and Bitcoin felt the squeeze as some buyers stepped back. At the same time, live tickers showed the token about 20% below its level at the start of the year, a reminder that headline percentages hide wide intraday swings. Analysts Are Split Voices from the trading desk are divided. Michael van de Poppe suggested near-term green candles could be coming, urging traders to watch for a lift. On the other hand, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026. Both views rest on different sets of signals — one on momentum and chart structure, the other on longer cycle patterns and risk of macro shocks. Sentiment Still Down Meanwhile, flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning, and on-chain liquidity figures would add weight to any forecast. Related Reading: XRP Tipped As Central Bank Bridge Asset — Bigger Than Bitcoin? Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline, with reports noting that discussion and activity around Bitcoin predictions have slowed. Traders appear cautious, weighing past trends against current uncertainty in the market. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives. Here's the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin […]
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Bitcoin just got ~15% harder to mine as hashrate falls—pushing miner revenue back into the $30 stress zone Bitcoin’s mining economy has tightened again, but its undertones could pave the way for a price recovery in the top crypto. Over the past weeks, the network difficulty jumped, while the hashrate has shown signs of softening. […]
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Bitcoin remains range-bound as liquidity clears on both sides, keeping price action indecisive. After months of weakness, demand has finally turned positive, hinting that selling is easing and structural accumulation may be returning. BTC Stays Range-Bound Amid Active Liquidity Clearing Bitcoin remains locked in a range-bound state, characterized by a lack of directional commitment. Currently, the price is actively engaged in clearing liquidity on both sides of the spread. This creates a market environment where expansion is met with selling pressure, while price dips are swiftly absorbed by buyers, trapping the asset in a tug-of-war. Related Reading: Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says According to Columbus, market liquidity remains exceptionally well-defined both above and below the current price levels. This structure reinforces the ongoing choppy environment, as the market seems content to bounce between established pockets of orders. In such a scenario, the data suggests that patience is the most valuable asset for traders. From this juncture, the market’s trajectory depends on how it reacts after the nearby liquidity is purged. If Bitcoin begins to find acceptance above the current range following a liquidity sweep, the probability shifts toward a bullish expansion, triggering a move into higher upside pockets. Conversely, if the attempt to gain acceptance fails after a sweep, the market remains vulnerable to further downside. This could result in additional sweeping of lower liquidity levels before any sustained recovery can materialize. Until then, the prevailing goal remains a technical clean-up of liquidity before the next major trend is established. Bitcoin Demand Turns Positive After Months Of Weakness CryptosRus recently highlighted that after nearly three months of persistent weakness, Bitcoin’s apparent demand has finally turned back above zero, currently sitting around +1,200 BTC. This marks a notable shift in investors’ sentiment and action in a market struggling with heightened volatility.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles Back in December, demand had bottomed near -154,000 BTC, a quantity that helps explain the sluggish price action that persisted in the following weeks. Since then, the pressure has been quietly easing. Selling activity is slowing, and structural accumulation is beginning to re-emerge, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. It’s important to understand what this metric represents, which is whether long-term holders are absorbing new supply. When demand is deeply negative, the market tends to struggle. Conversely, when the metric turns positive, it suggests that buying activity is rebuilding, creating conditions for a healthier market structure. That said, the market is not out of the woods yet. A single positive print does not confirm a trend reversal. However, if this recovery in demand persists, it is often one of the earliest indicators that the market is transitioning from a distribution phase back toward accumulation, setting the stage for potential sustained strength in the weeks ahead. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A seasoned investor’s bold claim about XRP has reignited a common question in crypto markets: could a token built for fast settlement ever outgrow the original store-of-value? Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet According to posts on X by longtime Bitcoin backer Pumpius, if central banks adopt a single on-chain bridge, XRP could eclipse Bitcoin “by magnitude.” On-Chain Tension And Policy Moves Reports note recent market moves that have worried policy makers and traders. The trading desk at the Federal Reserve requested indicative dollar/yen quotes after a sharp move in the yen, a step that Treasury officials had asked for. That rare check underlines how currency volatility can push officials to consider new tools, and it has renewed talk about faster settlement rails. Every Central Bank will use XRP as the bridge asset. It’s now becoming a reality. When this happens, XRP will surpass Bitcoin by magnitude. Bookmark this. https://t.co/xyWxhVDCLx pic.twitter.com/kFTsXSw6Hn — Pumpius (@pumpius) February 19, 2026 Ripple’s Timeline And Institutional Talk Based on reports from company briefings and executive posts, Ripple’s leadership sees 2026 as the year when larger, regulated players might put real money onto the XRP Ledger. Ripple President Monica Long has sketched out scenarios where banks and asset managers run production systems tied to on-chain liquidity pools. Those views have been picked up across crypto news outlets and have added fuel to bullish narratives. How Would A Bridge Asset Work? Imagine dollar and euro liquidity on a ledger, available for near-instant swaps. In practice, permissioned pools and regulated stablecoins could provide the rails while an on-chain order book or matching engine handles the trades. Settlement times would be measured in seconds. Audit trails would be automatic. That said, large institutions put a premium on rules and oversight; any real rollout would be gradual and cautious. XRP Vs. BTC: The Size Of The Gap Numbers matter. Bitcoin’s market cap sits comfortably in the trillions, while XRP’s market value is under $100 billion dollars, depending on which tracker you consult. That gap is not small. For XRP to “flip” Bitcoin at present values would require trillions more in capital moving into the token — a shift that would likely need broad institutional flows and major regulatory clarity. Related Reading: Saylor Makes Bold $1M Bitcoin Call — “It’s Zero Or A Million” Geopolitics Adds Noise Geopolitical strain and trade frictions, amplified by speeches or decisions from leaders, can make markets jittery. US President Donald Trump has been named in debates over policy shifts and geopolitical risk, which in turn affect capital flows and safe-haven bids. When politics moves markets, technical fixes such as faster settlement can look more attractive on paper; adoption in practice is another matter. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Stablecoin supply is crypto’s deployable cash. With a total stablecoin market cap of around $307.92 billion and down -1.13% in the past 30 days, the pool has stopped growing month over month. When supply stalls, price moves get sharper, and Bitcoin feels it first in thin depth and bigger wicks. Stablecoins sit in a strange […]
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Markets are quiet and uneasy. Bitcoin prices have pulled back, and big holders are keeping a cool face while the charts wobble. Reports note that one outspoken investor frames the market in stark terms: it either fails completely or becomes far more valuable than people now imagine. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet Saylor’s Binary Bet According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin has only two plausible final outcomes: worthless, or worth $1 million per coin. That is not a quick trading idea. It’s a long-running view about scarcity and demand. Saylor argues that a fixed supply paired with growing institutional buying and broader custody tools makes a future of massive price gains possible. He points to more banks, more spot ETFs and bigger corporate allocations as proof that demand has matured. If it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million. $BTC — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 20, 2026 A Warning From The Other Side Reports note that not everyone agrees. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg has sketched a darker path, one where price pressure and macro shocks could push values much lower — even toward $10,000. That view is rooted in history: markets can fall a long way before confidence returns. Short-term moves can be savage. Longer swings can be slower to recover. Both views are true on their own terms, because they answer different questions about time and risk. Balance Sheet And Funding Based on reports, the firm backing Saylor’s posture holds a very large stake: 717,131 BTC bought at an average cost of $76,027 a coin. That position is underwater for now. Still, financing choices matter. Strategy relies on equity, convertible notes, and preferred shares to meet cash needs. Arkham Intelligence has mapped out that preferred dividends are optional and redemptions are not automatic, which lowers the chance of forced sales right away. That setup buys time, though it does not erase exposure if prices stay low for a long stretch. SAYLOR IS UNDERWATER. BUT WILL HE SELL BTC? Saylor is over 10% underwater from his average purchase price. But what could actually force him to sell Bitcoin? Here’s an explainer of how, when and why Strategy might be forced to sell BTC. pic.twitter.com/uKbJ3ivO54 — Arkham (@arkham) February 20, 2026 Supply, Demand And The Big Numbers Saylor’s $1 million projection is driven by a supply argument: there are only 21 million coins. If enough institutions and treasuries keep buying, the math pushes the price up. He has said that with a particular share of total coins held by his firm, values could move into the millions, and he has sketched an even higher, $10 million possibility under stronger concentration scenarios. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests Those are not forecasts you can treat like short-term targets. They are conditional models — possible only if adoption, regulation and market behavior all line up for years. The path forward is not easy. Bitcoin could crawl higher, stumble and trade in narrow ranges for years, or shoot up as new buyers enter. Politics, regulation and global liquidity will shape which route unfolds. Institutional entry has changed the market structure, but it has not removed the risk of big drawdowns. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

South Korean lawmakers are ramping up pressure on financial regulators after a system failure at Bithumb, the country’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, led to the accidental distribution of more than $43 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) earlier this month. The February 6 incident has triggered political scrutiny of both the exchange itself and the agencies responsible for overseeing the virtual asset market.  Behind The Bithumb Massive Bitcoin Mishap According to local reporting by The Korea Times, members of the National Assembly are questioning how such a massive error could slip through despite repeated regulatory inspections. Rep. Kang Min-guk of the main opposition People Power Party disclosed that the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) reviewed Bithumb three times between 2022 and 2025.  Over the same period, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) conducted three separate inspections. Yet regulators failed to detect what has now been described as a critical structural weakness in the exchange’s system. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown Kang argued that existing oversight mechanisms were inadequate. He pointed out that safeguards were insufficient to prevent a situation in which a single employee could initiate massive coin transfers. Kang said: The episode is not merely a technical mishap but a case that lays bare deeper structural weaknesses in the virtual asset market, including complacent supervision and gaps in regulation. Instead of crediting users with Bitcoin worth 2,000 won — approximately $1.38 — the system mistakenly credited 2,000 Bitcoin per user. In total, 620,000 Bitcoin were incorrectly distributed.  Rep. Han Chang-min of the minor Social Democratic Party also criticized regulators, questioning whether supervisory authorities had meaningfully evaluated the exchange’s internal systems. “Authorities appeared to be shifting responsibility onto Bithumb despite their supervisory role,” Han said. Broader Crypto Oversight  In response to the incident, the FSS extended the deadline for its formal investigation from Feb. 13 to the end of the month, citing the need for additional time.  An eight-member inspection team is now intensifying its review, focusing on possible violations related to investor protection and anti-money laundering (AML) compliance.  Particular attention is being given to the system architecture that allowed coins not actually held by the exchange to be credited to users. Regulators have not ruled out the possibility that further erroneous distributions could be uncovered. Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture Separately, financial authorities have reportedly formed an emergency response team in coordination with the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA), a self-regulatory body representing domestic exchanges.  The team has begun inspections of asset verification and internal control systems at four other platforms — Upbit, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX. Any deficiencies are expected to be incorporated into DAXA’s self-regulatory guidelines and could influence the next phase of cryptocurrency legislation in South Korea. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,763, marking a 2% decline over the past seven days and showing minimal change since Thursday’s trading session.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index continues to be inside the extreme fear zone as the cryptocurrency market continues to struggle. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Still Pointing At ‘Extreme Fear’ The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the market mentality: trading volume, market cap dominance, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money Exits: Large-Holder Supply Hits Lowest Since May 2025 When the value of the metric is greater than 53, it means the sentiment shared by the majority of the investors is that of greed. On the other hand, the indicator being under 47 suggests the investors are fearful. Naturally, values lying between the two thresholds indicate the presence of a net neutral mentality. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ areas called the extreme fear (25 and under) and extreme greed (above 75). Recently, the market has been inside the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As is visible above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 7, which is pretty deep into the extreme fear zone. In fact, this level of despair is something that the traders have rarely held historically. The Fear & Greed Index has consistently been at similarly low levels during the last couple of weeks, as the below chart shows. Overall, the indicator has been stuck inside the extreme fear territory for 22 straight days now. The recent bad market sentiment is a result of the drawdown that the Bitcoin price has faced. In the past, cryptocurrency markets have often tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. The probability of a contrarian move occurring has generally been the strongest in the extreme sentiment zones as that’s where the crowd is the most sure about the market’s outcome. Given this, the recent extreme fear mentality could help the sector bottom out. The lowest that the metric has gone this cycle is 5, which is similar to the lowest point of the previous bear market. In that bear market, however, the market consolidated and spent more time inside the extreme fear zone even after the low in the Fear & Greed Index, before a bottom was eventually reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Hits 5-Week High—BTC, ETH Mood Still Off It now remains to be seen how long Bitcoin and others will take to hit a cyclical low this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to make much recovery since its bounce from the $60,000 level as its price continues to trade around $67,700. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may not be building a base for recovery.  Instead, the firm argues that the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to another downward move, driven by three overlapping forces: weakening equity momentum, structural changes in Bitcoin’s volatility profile, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is steady but not supportive. Structural Headwinds For Bitcoin According to the report, Bitcoin no longer trades in isolation. It has become increasingly linked to equity markets, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. At the moment, that linkage is not working in its favor.  Bitcoin is already showing signs of weakness, equity markets are losing steam, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining a neutral stance that offers little additional liquidity support. Together, those factors keep downside risks elevated. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown While Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize in recent weeks, Ecoinometrics cautions that this does not resemble a clear bottoming pattern. Rather, it looks more like a pause within an ongoing bear phase.  Structural headwinds are already in place, as highlighted by the firm, including continued outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a broader “risk-off” environment in financial markets. The report noted that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend, with its 200-day moving average (currently above $100,000) turning downward and rallies repeatedly failing beneath that level — a classic sign of a bearish structure.  By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them.  Lower Volatility, Higher Correlation Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and subsequent crashes.  This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower.  This change reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles.  Bitcoin, in other words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability.  However, it comes with a trade-off: deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. Downside Risks Grow On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully contained, and the labor market remains resilient.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture As a result, rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground. For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets begin to slide. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Reports say a popular risk metric has fallen into territory that, in the past, lined up with major buying opportunities for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet The short-term Sharpe Ratio has plunged to about -38.38, a level that markets rarely see. Traders who follow on-chain and statistical signals point out that similar extremes showed up around the lows of 2015, 2019, and late 2022 — moments that later saw sizable recoveries, CryptoQuant verified author Moreno said. Sharpe Ratio Hits Unusual Low The Sharpe Ratio measures returns against volatility. When it drops far below zero over short stretches, it means investors have been taking heavy losses relative to how wildly the market is moving. A -38.38 reading is extreme. Reports note this kind of reading has happened only four times in Bitcoin’s history, and each time followed a stretch of high stress and weak sentiment. That pattern suggests selling can exhaust itself even when the charts look bleak. Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hit a Level Historically Reserved For Generational Buying Zones “The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/nxFBUgHxi9 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 19, 2026 Historical Lows And Recoveries Past cycles give one way to read the signal. Around $287 in 2015, and near $4,100 in early 2019, and again around $15,000 in late 2022, risk measures and mood were at their worst before money flowed back in. Based on reports from on-chain analysts, those moments shared common traits: many traders had capitulated, volume was thin, and volatility spiked. Yet those conditions later coincided with multi-month rallies that erased large parts of the prior losses. Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin’s price has been sensitive to headlines lately. It slid under psychological levels as risk assets weakened, and trading has been muted. Markets reacted to diplomatic rows and conflict-related stories, causing bigger moves in thin markets. Sometimes BTC held up and brushed off sharp risk-off flows. Other times it fell further, especially when liquidity dried up. That stop-and-start behavior has left short-term traders cautious, while longer-term holders watch for signs that selling momentum is fading. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts Clear Coast Ahead? Based on reports and the data, this signal is not a magic ticket. External forces — such as tightening liquidity or a macro shock — can keep downward pressure longer than statistical patterns alone would predict. The recent 50% fall from an all-time high near $126,200 in October 2025 to about $65,700 shows much of the move is already behind us, but it does not rule out more pain. Risk management matters. Position sizing and clear entry plans will help anyone who decides to act around these levels. Featured image from Anne Connelly – Medium, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows the key Bitcoin investors have been distributing recently, with their supply share dropping to the lowest level in months. Large Holder Demand For Bitcoin Has Remained Weak Recently In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the Bitcoin investor behavior has compared between the top and low ends of the market. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Hits 5-Week High—BTC, ETH Mood Still Off The analytics firm has chosen these wallet ranges to represent the two sides: 0 to 0.01 BTC and 10 to 10,000 BTC. The former includes the smallest of retail investors, while the latter includes key investor cohorts like the sharks and whales. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply held by each cohort. As is visible in the graph, the 0 to 0.01 BTC cohort has been expanding its supply since the October price peak. Bitcoin has witnessed a deep drawdown inside this window, but the data would imply that it hasn’t held back retail traders from accumulating. In total, this accumulation has expanded the holdings of these small hands by 2.5%, taking their percentage supply share to the highest level since June 2024. While retail has been buying, the sharks and whales have shown a different trajectory. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 10 to 10,000 BTC holders sold alongside the market drawdown between October and December. In January, these investors participated in some buying, which interestingly coincided with a drop in retail holdings. Then, the drawdown toward the end of the month again kicked off a selloff from the key investors. This selloff was steep, in fact sharper than any part of Q4 2025’s distribution phase. Recently, even as Bitcoin has made some recovery from its $60,000 low and found some stability, the big-money investors haven’t shown any return of bullish conviction. Compared to the October peak, the supply of the 10 to 10,000 BTC holders is now down 0.8%, which has taken the network share of this group to the lowest since May 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next? The analytics firm explained: Optimally, we begin to see these two Bitcoin groups begin to reverse course. Without key stakeholder support, any spark of a rally will tend to be slightly limited due to the lack of large capital. In another X post, Santiment has also discussed the behavior of the mid-tier Bitcoin holders, occupying the space between retail and large investors. As displayed in the chart, the 0.01 to 1 BTC wallets have seen their combined Bitcoin supply hit a 15-month high following a 1.05% increase since October. Meanwhile, the 1 to 10 BTC hands have reduced their holdings by 0.49% in the same period. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,400, up 0.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

The industry’s largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), are enduring one of their most difficult openings to a year on record, according to a recent analysis by Fortune, with both digital assets trading sharply below their previous peaks. Bitcoin is currently down roughly 46% from its all-time high, while Ethereum has fallen about 60% from its record level. The steep declines mark what the publication describes as historically poor year-to-date performances for the assets.  Bitcoin, Ethereum Lag While S&P 500, Gold Post Gains While Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with broader crypto prices, have often moved in tandem with equities in recent years, that relationship has weakened over the past two months. Since January, major US stock indices have edged higher.  The S&P 500 has gained approximately 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 2.3%. Precious metals have also performed strongly. Gold has surged about 17% since the start of the year, while silver has advanced roughly 14%, even after experiencing a brief drop several weeks ago. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown The disconnect between cryptocurrencies and broader market gains has prompted some industry observers to declare the arrival of another “Crypto Winter.”  “We’re certainly in a Crypto Winter,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at crypto asset manager Bitwise. He pointed to investor behavior as evidence of deteriorating sentiment. “You can tell by how investors react to good news,” Nelson said. “They don’t.” ‘We’re Really Close To The End’ Despite the current pullback and the increased challenges for prices seen since the October 10 liquidation event, Nelson argues that the underlying foundation of the industry is strengthening.  “Crypto’s reality is getting stronger,” he said, adding that the structural changes underway are likely to outlast the current downturn.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture Similar sentiments have been expressed by Tom Lee, cofounder of research firm Fundstrat and a long-time supporter of Ethereum. In a recent interview, Lee suggested the market may be nearing a turning point, stating, “We’re really close to the end.” Whether the latest slump proves to be a temporary correction or a deeper cycle shift remains uncertain. For now, however, the data underscores a challenging start to the year for the cryptocurrency market, even as other asset classes continue to surge. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,595, which is a slight 1% increase compared to Thursday’s prices. Ethereum is trading at around $1,968, with similar gains over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $69,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term market structure. After multiple failed attempts to establish acceptance above this key psychological threshold, price action reflects a defensive environment marked by reduced risk appetite and elevated volatility. Traders remain cautious, with liquidity conditions tightening and momentum favoring sellers rather than sustained accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks the Final Whale Floor In A 2018-Style Capitulation: What To Expect New on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn adds another layer to the current landscape. According to his insights, Bitcoin whales are firmly dominating the market structure at this stage of the cycle. Over the past 30 days alone, approximately $8.24 billion worth of whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance, marking the highest level of large-holder inflows to the exchange in the last 14 months. Such a concentration of activity suggests that major participants are actively repositioning. The data also underscores Binance’s continued role as the primary liquidity venue for large-scale transactions. When whale flows accelerate toward exchanges at this magnitude, it often signals heightened strategic activity — whether for distribution, hedging, or tactical allocation. As Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the behavior of these dominant market participants may play a decisive role in shaping the next directional move. Whale Dominance Intensifies As Retail Momentum Cools Maartunn further detailed the 30-day flow breakdown, offering a clearer view of how market participation is evolving. Over the past month, whale inflows to Binance have reached $8.24 billion and continue to trend higher. In comparison, retail inflows total approximately $11.91 billion but have begun to flatten. As a result, the retail-to-whale ratio currently stands at 1.45 and is steadily compressing. Although retail participation remains visible, its momentum is cooling. The pace of smaller deposits has slowed, suggesting declining conviction or reduced speculative activity among short-term traders. In contrast, whale deposits have increased consistently over the same period, indicating that larger entities are either actively positioning or reallocating capital with greater urgency. This dynamic is narrowing the gap between large and small participants on the exchange. When whale flows accelerate while retail flows plateau, market structure tends to become more top-heavy, with price increasingly influenced by institutional-scale actors rather than fragmented retail activity. The key takeaway is clear: large players are becoming more dominant on Binance, while smaller participants are gradually losing relative influence. In the current environment, Bitcoin’s next directional move may depend more heavily on whale strategy than retail sentiment. Related Reading: The 200 Million XRP Exodus: Investors Swap Speculation For Private Custody Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects a decisive loss of momentum following the rejection near the $120,000 region in late 2025. Since that peak, price structure has transitioned into a clear corrective phase characterized by lower highs and accelerating downside pressure. The most recent leg lower shows a sharp breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone, with BTC now hovering around the $68,000 area. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the shorter-term moving average, which has rolled over and is sloping downward, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. The intermediate moving average is flattening and beginning to turn lower, signaling weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the long-term average remains upward sloping but sits well below current price levels, suggesting that while the macro structure has not fully collapsed, the market is in a transitional phase. Related Reading: The Altcoin Exodus: Trading Volumes Halve As Capital Flees To Bitcoin $65,000 Fortress Volume expanded noticeably during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a passive drift lower. However, the latest candles show some stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 support region, an area that previously acted as a breakout zone earlier in the cycle. A sustained reclaim of the $75,000–$80,000 range would be required to restore bullish structure. Failure to hold current levels could expose deeper retracement toward long-term trend support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Michael Saylor kept buying while the market slid, and he did it out loud: “Neven been more bullish,” he said in an X post Thursday. His public posts and regulatory filings show Strategy continued to add to its Bitcoin pile even as price swings turned paper gains into big unrealized losses. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts The firm’s recent regulatory filing confirms a fresh purchase this month, while market reports and accounting disclosures show the wider hit to corporate treasuries. Market Value Drop Shakes Portfolios Bitcoin has shed roughly $1.2 trillion of market value since October 2025, and the wider crypto market has lost about $2 trillion in the same stretch. Prices that once pushed Bitcoin past $126,000 have fallen back toward the mid-$60,000s. That scale of decline has pushed several companies that used Bitcoin as a treasury asset into heavy mark-to-market losses, changing how investors view corporate crypto exposure. Never Been More ₿ullish. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 19, 2026 Strategy Keeps Buying According to the company’s own filings, Strategy acquired 2,486 BTC for roughly $168 million during mid-February, bringing its holdings above 700k coins. The buy was announced in a Form 8-K and has been picked up across market outlets. At the same time, accounting rules that require unrealized gains and losses to be reflected in reports mean the firm’s quarterly statements showed multibillion-dollar swings tied to Bitcoin’s price. That reality has put Strategy on the front lines of the debate over holding large crypto positions on balance sheets. Price Action And Headlines Moved Markets Bitcoin’s trading has been choppy. Headlines tied to geopolitics and macro policy moved traders, and low-volume sessions made swings feel bigger. ETF outflows and a string of liquidations amplified the slide. Still, there were moments when buyers stepped in and pushed prices up briefly; those countermoves have been picked over by analysts hunting for a bottom. Image: Wall Street Pit Bullish Voices, Loud And Public Eric Trump — speaking at an event at Mar-a-Lago — made a very bullish prediction that was reposted and amplified, and that kind of public optimism appears to have rubbed off on other high-profile backers. Go bitcoin today. The money won’t fix itself. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 13, 2026 Saylor reposted and echoed similar buy-the-dip messages, urging accumulation even as skeptics warned about the risks. At times political headlines tied to US President Donald Trump and related policy moves were singled out as part of the story behind the 2025 rally that preceded this correction. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill Saylor’s latest comment shows he remains firmly confident in Bitcoin. Despite huge losses, he sees dips as buying chances and urges others to stay bullish, keeping his long-term conviction front and center. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price action has taken a grim tone this month as trading rolls toward what may become a fifth straight red monthly candle. According to CoinGlass, BTC is down roughly 15% this month after closing the previous four months lower, a run not seen since 2018. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill Reports note that similar multimonth selloffs in the past were sometimes followed by sudden, strong rebounds, but those outcomes were not automatic. Traders are watching support near recent lows while sentiment indicators show rising caution among both retail and institutional players. Historical Streaks And Reversals Reports from Milk Road point to a striking example: after a long losing streak in 2018/19, the market produced large gains in the months that followed. That episode is often referenced by bulls who argue that compressed prices can set the stage for big percentage moves to the upside. Yet context matters. Market cycles are messy, and raw percentage comparisons skip over differences in liquidity, participant mix, and macro settings.  Source: CoinGlass Weekly And Quarterly Signals Weekly charts are shouting caution in some corners. Analyst Solana Sensei highlighted a run of red weekly candles that echoes parts of 2022, when extended selling drove BTC to the mid-$20,000s. At the same time, quarterly data from the 2022 drawdown shows losses can stack up for long stretches, and those patterns were painful for holders who expected quick turns. Some analysts have argued that the current cycle looks different because the monthly RSI never saw the same overbought expansion that preceded some prior bear phases; their view suggests rebounds might not follow the old script. $BTC is looking to log its 5th red month. Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months. Silver lining: it led to a reversal w/ 316% returns over the following 5 months. If history repeats – the reversal begins April 1st. Bookmark this. pic.twitter.com/IZwmdg0peV — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 18, 2026 Bitcoin Price Action The top crypto’s price movement has been mixed: thin sessions, sharp swings on headlines, muted volume between moves. The market has been both brittle and occasionally steady, depending on who is trading and where liquidity pools sit. Geopolitics And Market Mood Geopolitical flareups have acted as a volatility amplifier, and traders are pricing in headline risk more readily than before. Events tied to policies or public comments have dented confidence across risk assets. Related Reading: CEO Confirms Bitcoin Exposure, Says Bank Is Still Navigating US policy shifts and high-profile political statements — including ones linked to US President Donald Trump — are being watched for any spillover into dollar flows and investor risk tolerance. Thin market conditions can turn small news into big moves. That’s exactly what’s been happening on occasion over the last few weeks. Based on reports and the mix of indicators, a rebound in March or April is possible, but it cannot be counted on. Some traders will prepare for a quick bounce; others will keep dry powder and wait for clearer confirmation. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s slide into the $60,000–$70,000 zone has lit up the usual “bottom” dashboards: extreme fear, washed-out positioning, and a cluster of indicators many traders treat as capitulation signals. But CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet says the market is missing the only thing that ultimately matters: a visible bid from dominant buyers. “What I emphasized in the $80K–$90K range still remains the same,” he wrote on Feb. 18. “Many indicators that market participants follow are pointing to a bottom and extreme fear. However, we do not see dominant players (whales) actually using this situation.” Mignolet’s core argument is simple: a bottom is not a sentiment reading, it’s an event and he doesn’t see the kind of forced absorption that typically marks a durable turn. “No matter how many indicators suggest a bottom, if there is no real buying force stepping in, we cannot know where the true bottom will be,” he said. “That is why I do not make price predictions lightly.” Related Reading: Revealed: The Biggest Bitcoin Holders Of 2026, According To Arkham Data He contrasted the current tape with the 2024 bull cycle, when fear could still dominate headlines even as large allocators quietly took the other side. In that period, he argues, the market had a measurable backstop: institutional demand showing up through US spot Bitcoin ETFs, specifically BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, which “clearly absorbed the selling pressure.” The “most important point,” in his framing, is that the same mechanics aren’t showing up now. Mignolet says the accumulation pattern FBTC sustained for roughly a year has “already broken down,” and IBIT, previously described as a buffer during heavy sell pressure, is “now trending downward, unlike last year.” That shift is why he keeps the bottom call “on ice,” even if price ultimately holds the current region. In his view, Bitcoin remains in a phase where traders should “be cautious about further shocks,” and even a successful defense would likely require time before it can be treated as confirmed. When Everyone Reads The Same Bitcoin Data Beyond flow, Mignolet is also warning about a structural change in how market narratives form. He argues the proliferation of on-chain analytics has made the space more information-dense, but not necessarily more insightful and in some cases, more hazardous. Related Reading: Bitcoin Doesn’t Get A Macro ‘Bailout’ This Time: Alden Warns Of Gradual QE “The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches similar conclusions,” he wrote. “In many cases, even the people producing the data do not fully understand it. When information becomes too common, it pushes expectations in one direction.” He describes today’s well-packaged on-chain dashboards as “clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet,” which can harden conviction precisely when flexibility is required. The downstream risk, he suggests, is that widespread agreement around “obvious” bottoms can keep investors anchored through deeper drawdowns or longer grind periods. In the near term, Mignolet’s base case is not a clean trend reversal but “sideways movement without a clear direction,” with enough volatility to create opportunities for short-term traders. For his own positioning, he described the period as “waiting,” stepping back to watch “liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment,” then “reset” his framework. The bigger picture, he says, is still bearish and potentially more drawn out than he expected last year. His closing warning is that this down cycle is “unlikely to end lightly,” with the plausible outcomes being a larger-than-expected drop, a longer-than-expected sideways phase, or both. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,889. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the social media sentiment toward XRP has surged to a 5-week high even as mood around Bitcoin and Ethereum remains dull. XRP Positive/Negative Sentiment Has Shot Up Recently In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum currently compare in terms of the Positive/Negative Sentiment. This indicator tells us about whether an asset is observing more bullish or bearish comments on the major social media platforms. The metric works by filtering social media posts/threads/messages for terms related to the cryptocurrency and putting them through a machine-learning model that separates between positive and negative sentiments. It then counts up the number of posts in each category and determines the ratio between them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next? When the value of the Positive/Negative Sentiment is greater than 1, it means bullish comments outnumber the bearish ones. On the other hand, the indicator being under this level could indicate the dominance of a negative sentiment among social media users. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for three top cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum. As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both seen the Positive/Negative Sentiment decline to near-neutral levels recently. Bullish and bearish comments are almost exactly canceling out for the former with the metric sitting at 1.05, while the latter is seeing a slight dominance of positive sentiment with a value of 1.4. The analytics firm noted: Crypto markets have struggled to maintain momentum, and social data indicates there are far less bullish comments toward Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to last week. Meanwhile, the indicator has taken a completely different route for XRP. From the chart, it’s visible that the Positive/Negative Sentiment has recently witnessed a sharp rise for the digital asset ranked fourth by market cap. XRP has also struggled like the rest of the market recently, so what’s behind the divergence? According to Santiment, it’s likely to lie in the recent partnership expansion announcements. The wave of bullish comments over the last couple of days has pushed the Positive/Negative Sentiment to 2.35, the highest level in five weeks. If past pattern is to go by, though, this excitement around the asset may not necessarily translate to the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Momentum Losing Steam? Analyst Flags Key Metric Generally, digital asset markets tend to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. In that view, Bitcoin and Ethereum with their relatively dull sentiments may be better positioned for a rebound than XRP. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.39, up around 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Reports say Goldman Sachs now holds a mix of crypto exposures that go beyond Bitcoin alone. Its chief executive, David Solomon, told an audience he owns a very small amount of Bitcoin while he watches how the market behaves. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill That personal detail grabbed attention after investor Grant Cardone amplified the comment on social media, and it added another layer to what appears to be a deliberate, measured shift inside the firm. Token Holdings And Paper Losses Based on filings, Goldman Sach’s positions are spread across several major tokens. The firm shows exposure to about 13,740 Bitcoin held through US-listed spot ETFs, a stake worth roughly $920 million after a recent price slide. Ethereum accounts for about $1 billion of exposure. Smaller stakes in XRP and Solana come in at about $153 million and $108 million, respectively. David Solomon @GoldmanSachs just said at World Liberty Forum, “I’m still trying to figure out how Bitcoin behaves. I own a little bitcoin, very little.”@MarALago @worldlibertyfi pic.twitter.com/iepTMeE6lL — Grant Cardone (@GrantCardone) February 18, 2026 Altogether, crypto-linked ETF holdings add up to roughly $2.36 billion, according to the disclosure. These numbers mean the bank is carrying unrealized losses on some positions since prices fell sharply. Yet the holdings remain, which suggests an institutional view that does not chase every short-term move. Some of those choices were made after new spot ETF options launched for certain tokens, pushing the bank to broaden its lineup beyond Bitcoin and Ether. Exploring What Works Reports note that Goldman has also been quietly building out teams focused on tokenization, stablecoins, and other blockchain-based tools. Work on prediction markets and experiments with putting tokenized assets into parts of the balance sheet has been underway. Employees are testing ways these technologies might fit into existing services rather than upending them. The CEO’s phrasing was cautious. He said his firm is evaluating how these systems could be folded into core operations where they make sense, rather than rushing in just to be first. “I’m still trying to figure out how Bitcoin behaves. I own a little bitcoin, very little,” Solomon said. That tone lines up with a strategy of measured adoption — try, test, and integrate only when the fit is clear. A Public Signal With Private Limits World Liberty Forum provided the stage where Solomon shared his remarks, and the public nature of the comment matters. High-level executives admitting any personal crypto holdings is still newsworthy. It signals interest but not a full personal endorsement; he emphasized that his stake is small and that he remains in observation mode. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Powerful Rally Signal Is Back — Is History About To Repeat? Regulatory And Market Context The disclosure also comes as lawmakers and regulators continue to shape rules that could affect how banks use crypto tools. Clearer rules in Washington could accelerate practical uses, or at least make trial programs easier to run. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Michael Saylor keeps things upbeat. He told a TV interviewer that the current Bitcoin dip feels milder than past crashes and that a quicker rebound is likely. He even said, “Spring is coming, and Bitcoin is winning.” Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Reaches Historic Levels, Price Hovers Near $2K Bitcoin Institutional Support Strengthens Outlook According to Saylor, a big reason for his confidence is that banks and big firms are far more involved than they were a few years ago. Reports note fresh banking tools and credit networks aimed at crypto are drawing new capital in. US President Donald Trump was mentioned by the Strategy big boss as a political force friendly to Bitcoin — a line that will be picked over by both supporters and critics. We may be in the middle of a crypto winter, but spring is coming — and Bitcoin is winning. pic.twitter.com/jxvzK3XwSN — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 17, 2026 Strategy’s Holdings And Price Math Strategy holds 714,644 BTC on its books, bought at an average near $76,056 each. At the moment, Bitcoin trades around $67,900. That gap matters. The roughly $49 billion value sitting in the vault is compared to a company market value that trades around $42.80 billion. Those raw numbers give weight to Saylor’s claim that the company can handle big swings. He went further, saying that even a fall to $8,000 would leave the holdings enough to cover outstanding debt. That is a strong statement. It was presented as reassurance to investors. Strategy’s Position And Risk Calculations Reports say Strategy plans to swap its convertible debt into stock within three to six years. The firm has also signaled it will buy more Bitcoin each quarter. How these moves play out depends on markets, financing terms, and timing. Some analysts think the company’s approach lowers short-term pressure on the share price. Others point out that keeping such a large crypto stash concentrates risk in volatile markets. Past Cycles Saylor compared the current episode to deeper downturns that came before. That comparison is useful but needs numbers to be fully judged. Historical drops in crypto have been steep at times, which is why claims of a milder slump invite scrutiny. Other investors look at on-chain flows, macro cash conditions, and bank behavior to decide whether this time is different. Right now, evidence of a fast, broad institutional inflow is mixed. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking Outlook And What Could Shift The Story Markets could swing on a few catalysts: changes in lending policy, moves by large funds, or fresh regulatory signals from US authorities. News or shocks could tilt sentiment quickly. Some market watchers look at 10-year trendlines for context, while others focus on shorter trading indicators. Either way, Saylor’s optimism is clearly tied to a long view and a confident read of current market structure. Featured image from Long Island Weight Loss Institute, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price corrected gains and tested the $65,650 zone. BTC is now consolidating losses and might start a decent increase if it settles above $68,000. Bitcoin is struggling to recover losses and moving lower below $67,500. The price is trading below $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $67,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Tough Challenge Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $67,500 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $67,200 support zone. There was a push below $67,000. The price even spiked below $66,800. A low was formed at $65,650, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,418 swing high to the $65,650 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $66,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,400 level. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $67,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,418 swing high to the $65,650 low. The first key resistance is near the $68,000 level. A close above the $68,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $69,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,000 and $70,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $66,000 level. The first major support is near the $65,650 level. The next support is now near the $65,050 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,800, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,650. Major Resistance Levels – $67,400 and $68,000.

Bitcoin’s price action is struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands, Bitcoin is now moving in a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are undecided on its next direction. Some see the current structure as a base for another push higher, but others warn that any bounce could invite new selling. Crypto analyst Sherlock is among the cautious voices, arguing on X that a rally to between $72,000 and $76,000 may not be a recovery but a kill zone for Bitcoin bulls. The $76,000 Breakeven Wall Crypto analyst Sherlock is of the notion that any Bitcoin price recovery to $76,000 from here might not actually be a good thing. Sherlock’s argument is based on the Bitcoin holdings of Strategy. At the time of writing, the company holds 714,644 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,052. That stash represents roughly 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist.  Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance Now that Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, Strategy’s position is significantly underwater, and the company is sitting at an estimated unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion at current prices. In the analyst’s view, every push to the $74,000 to $76,000 range brings this large concentration of supply closer to breakeven. Breakeven levels often act as selling zones. Based on that perspective, the $76,000 area could be risky because it brings Strategy’s position back to its average entry price, and many large holders might consider reducing exposure. That said, there is no indication that Strategy plans to sell. The company has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of offloading its Bitcoin and has even emphasized that its balance sheet could withstand a severe downturn, including a scenario where the Bitcoin price drops below $10,000. ETF Pressure And Bitcoin Cost Basis Sherlock also pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETFs as another source of pressure that might lead to a bull trap. As it stands, about 1.28 million BTC are currently held in these funds, with an estimated average entry price between $84,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Could A Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000 Wipe Out Strategy? Saylor Shares What To Expect Since late 2025, these ETFs have recorded more than $6 billion in net outflows, and the Bitcoin price might face another pressure even if it reaches the average entry price. He also noted that about 63% of invested Bitcoin wealth has a cost basis above $88,000, meaning a large share of buyers in 2025 are sitting on losses, and a rally to their entry levels could also be a bull trap. Therefore, a climb into the $72,000 to $76,000 range could be a bull trap. If it doesn’t, then the next trap could be around $88,000. That said, if every breakeven level triggered selling, then Bitcoin might never form a bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,980. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin’s recent pullback may look concerning on the surface, but according to Brian Armstrong, the move has more to do with the market psychology than with any deterioration in fundamentals. After a period of strong performance, shifting sentiment and broader market uncertainty are playing a larger role in BTC’s price movement than structural weaknesses within the network or its long-term value proposition. Why Bitcoin’s Core Strengths Remain Intact A crypto expert known as Walter Bloomberg on X has revealed that the Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin’s recent slide is temporary and is driven primarily by market psychology rather than weakening fundamentals.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound Speaking to the Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) at the World Liberty Forum in Florida, Armstrong pushed back against the speculation linking the decline to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership changes or emerging risks such as quantum computing. Instead, Armstrong explained that the move reflects investors locking in profits and reacting to what they believe others are thinking. He described the downturn as likely temporary, noting that Coinbase is repurchasing shares and buying more BTC at a lower price. Armstrong emphasized that crypto market cycles are normal, reiterating that BTC remains the best-performing asset of the past decade and that the company continues to focus on long-term growth. Is This The Early Stage Of Another Supply Shock? Bitcoin whales have accumulated more than 200,000 BTC despite the ongoing selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost highlighted that while whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow. Thus, inflows typically reflect short-term behaviour and can generate immediate selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows The chart below provides a medium-term perspective by tracking the evolution of the whale-held supply on a monthly average basis. After a sharp drop in this average to nearly -7% on December 15, whale behaviour appears to have shifted over the past month, with their holdings increasing by 3.4%. During this period, the BTC supply by whales grew from 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of more than 200,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the last time whale accumulation of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 market correction. At that time, this wave of accumulation had helped absorb selling pressure and supported the rally that pushed BTC from $76,000 to $126,000. However, with BTC still consolidating around 46% below its recent all-time high, the current level may be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. Darkfost noted that it is not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity. As selling pressure remains significant, this whale demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully counterbalance the broader market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Economist and longtime Bitcoin (BTC) critic Peter Schiff has issued a fresh warning to cryptocurrency investors, arguing that the world’s largest digital asset could face a steep decline if a key price level fails. Schiff Predicts 84% Bitcoin Crash  In a Thursday social media post on X, Schiff said that a break below $50,000 would likely open the door to a much deeper selloff. “If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K,” he wrote.  Related Reading: Revealed: The Biggest Bitcoin Holders Of 2026, According To Arkham Data A drop to that level, he noted, would represent an 84% fall from Bitcoin’s all‑time high of $126,000 reached last October. While acknowledging that Bitcoin has experienced similar collapses in the past, Schiff argued that the current environment is different.  He pointed to what he described as unprecedented hype, higher leverage in the system, greater institutional ownership and a much larger overall market capitalization. “Sell Bitcoin now!” he urged. BTC ‘Not Fit’ As Reserve Asset Schiff, who has long championed gold as a superior store of value, has repeatedly questioned Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system.  In a previous interview, he said BTC is unsuitable as a reserve asset for central banks, contending that its volatility would make it impractical to hold in large quantities without causing market instability.  Related Reading: Goldman Sachs CEO Says US Must Codify How Crypto ‘Will Operate’ According to Schiff, although some sovereign wealth funds and governments have taken limited positions in Bitcoin‑related products, those allocations remain small and are often motivated by performance pressure rather than deep conviction. He has also expressed skepticism about the durability of institutional demand. Schiff predicted that professional investors’ interest in Bitcoin could wane over time and warned that more recent entrants to the market may ultimately suffer losses if prices retreat sharply. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $66,900, with the largest resistance level at $70,000 and support floors at $65,800 and $62,800, limiting additional losses in the near term.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, American Bitcoin Corp now holds 6,039 BTC, placing the firm among the top 20 public corporate Bitcoin treasuries in the world. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation That number is big on its face. It also carries more questions than answers for anyone who follows both crypto and small-cap stocks. Fast Accumulation Through Mining And Purchases Reports note the company has been piling on coins by keeping what it mines and by buying on the open market. Blockchain trackers and industry write-ups say roughly 217 BTC were added over the course of January alone, a fast clip for a company that listed barely six months ago. Today we reached an incredible milestone for American Bitcoin — Crossing 6,000 BTC in under 6 months since our Nasdaq debut! Today is a testament to @ABTC execution which has build one of the fastest-growing Public Bitcoin reserves in the world, outpacing many established… pic.twitter.com/JNjYZfeajL — Eric Trump (@EricTrump) February 17, 2026 Eric Trump Celebrates Eric Trump broadcast the milestone on social media, framing it as proof the plan works and that the treasury build was rapid and deliberate. The message landed with fans. The rest of the market has been less kind. Shares have tumbled hard since the Nasdaq debut, with multiple reports showing equity losses in the area of 80% from early highs. A stock that drops this far while its balance sheet grows makes clear that ownership of Bitcoin alone has not calmed investor nerves. JUST IN: Trump family-backed #Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin Corp $ABTC increased its holdings by 196 BTC and now holds a total of 6,039 BTC. ????Bitcoin 100 Ranking: 17???? pic.twitter.com/ydp2wbN1Xn — BitcoinTreasuries.NET (@BTCtreasuries) February 17, 2026 How The Rank Compares To Others The firm now sits ahead of household names on the list, including GameStop and Gemini Space Station Inc in raw BTC held. That comparison grabs headlines. It also masks the difference between a company that treats Bitcoin as a treasury reserve versus firms that hold BTC as one of many assets. Political Branding Cuts Through The Noise The venture carries a clear political stamp, with ties to the family of US President Donald Trump. That connection brings attention and capital at times, and it draws scrutiny at others. For investors who prefer to keep politics off their balance sheets, the association will affect sentiment just as surely as quarterly numbers do. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Top $500,000 By 2029? Entrepreneur Makes Bold Call Reports say analysts have mixed views: some see a bet on Bitcoin’s next leg higher, others point to governance, execution risk, and thin market float. A firm that refuses to sell mined coins essentially doubles down on the coin’s future price. That can be wildly profitable in a rally. It can be brutal in a drawdown. The math is plain — holding inventory exposes the company to the same swings retail holders face, but with public shares amplifying the effects. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Markets blinked hard this week. According to Checkonchain, a measure tied to recent Bitcoin buyers has dropped into extreme territory not seen since the late 2018 slump. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill That metric compares where new buyers paid against price swings, and right now those who bought inside the last 155 days sit well below break-even on average. That creates stress. It can also mark a low if other pieces line up. Short-Term Holder Signal Flashes Again Reports say the Short-Term Holder Bollinger Band reading has pierced its lower band, a statistical cue that recent buyers are unusually underwater. In past cycles that kind of print arrived near major lows — a deep wash-out when selling activity peaked and then buying began to reclaim value. Realized losses among large short-term wallets have not exploded yet, which, based on reports from MatrixPort, hints that heavy hitters may be holding through the pullback rather than throwing in the towel. Reports note that a similar signal appeared before Bitcoin’s historic 1,900% rally from the late 2018 bottom to 2021. While past performance does not guarantee the same outcome, the comparison highlights how extreme stress among short-term holders has previously aligned with major long-term gains. ????Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart – February 17, 2026 ⬇️ Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Extreme Lows ⁰— Durable Bottom Are Emerging? #Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed #RiskManagement #Volatility #CryptoResearch pic.twitter.com/WxJg3xrHSf — Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 17, 2026 Price Action And Market Moves Price behavior has been messy. Bitcoin slipped under $67,000–$70,000 as risk-off flows hit markets. Traders point to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the broader pull in risk assets as key drivers of the move. Reports say a note picked up by a popular media and TV firm relayed a Wells Fargo view that a seasonal surge in US tax refunds — the bank’s strategist described a sizable liquidity window — could re-route fresh cash toward risk bets, possibly supporting a rebound by the end of March. Bitcoin STH Bollingers most oversold in 8 years pic.twitter.com/tHyBv3V1Ge — Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) February 17, 2026 What History Can And Cannot Tell Us Looking back offers both comfort and caution. The oversold alarm flashed before a big rally after 2018, and a similar signal showed up ahead of the November 2022 trough that later produced a steep recovery. Reports note those moves unfolded against very different backdrops — money supply conditions, interest rates, and institutional involvement were not the same then as they are now. This time there are ETFs, more derivatives, and a tighter policy regime in some parts of the world. Past wins do not automatically repeat, but patterns can still guide risk-aware decisions. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation Where This Leaves Traders And Longer-Term Holders Short-term pain may still come. Volatility can remain high while markets reconcile macro news and geopolitical shocks. Yet the stretched readings among recent buyers do improve the odds that a better buying window is near for anyone with a multi-year horizon. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Quantum computing has become the latest all-purpose explanation for Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, but NYDIG says the numbers don’t back the narrative. In a Feb. 17 research note, NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro argues that “quantum fears” are loud, but not a primary driver of the sell-off when you look at search behavior, cross-asset correlations, and broader risk positioning. Quantum Panic Didn’t Sink Bitcoin NYDIG frames “Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers” as the theoretical endgame risk investors keep circling. The problem is that market behavior doesn’t look like a repricing of an imminent existential threat. First, Cipolaro points to Google Trends. Search interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” did rise, he wrote, but the timing matters. “Search interest for ‘quantum computing bitcoin’ has risen, but notably this occurred alongside bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs, not ahead of sustained weakness,” the note said. “In other words, heightened searches about quantum risk coincided with price strength rather than weakness. If the market were repricing bitcoin on an imminent technological threat, we would expect search intensity to lead or amplify downside risk, not accompany a period of gains.” Related Reading: Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained Second, NYDIG looks at how Bitcoin traded versus publicly listed quantum computing equities, specifically IONQ, QBTS, RGTI, and QUBT. If investors were rotating out of Bitcoin because quantum advances were “catching up,” you would expect quantum-linked stocks to diverge positively as Bitcoin falls. NYDIG says it saw the opposite. Bitcoin was positively correlated with those equities, and those correlations strengthened during the drawdown, suggesting a shared driver rather than a direct quantum-to-Bitcoin causality. NYDIG’s conclusion is blunt on that point. “The data provides no evidence that quantum computing is the proximate cause of bitcoin’s weakness, even if it is the dominant risk narrative at the moment,” Cipolaro wrote. “The more plausible explanation is a broader macro repricing of risk across long-duration, expectation-driven assets. Bitcoin’s recent drawdown appears more consistent with shifts in overall risk appetite than with any discrete technological catalyst.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Momentum Losing Steam? Analyst Flags Key Metric The mechanism NYDIG highlights is familiar to anyone watching liquidity regimes. Quantum computing firms, it argues, are long-duration, expectation-driven assets with minimal revenues and high EV/revenue multiples. Bitcoin, while structurally different, often trades as a long-duration bet on future adoption and monetary dynamics. When risk appetite contracts, both can get hit together. Meanwhile, NYDIG flags a divergence in derivatives markets that, in its view, better captures the current tape than quantum headlines. The 1-month annualized basis on CME has “persistently traded above” Deribit, which NYDIG uses as a proxy for onshore US institutional positioning versus offshore positioning. Structurally higher CME basis implies US desks have remained more constructive, while the sharper decline in Deribit’s 1-month basis points to rising caution offshore and reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,886. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics platform Arkham has released a new report identifying the largest known Bitcoin (BTC) holders at the start of 2026, offering a detailed snapshot of how the cryptocurrency is distributed across individuals, corporations, governments, and financial institutions. Top Bitcoin Holders Looking across major ownership categories, Arkham’s verified on‑chain data shows that the largest individual holder remains Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Nakamoto’s wallets contain 1,096,358 BTC, valued at approximately $75 billion, representing 5.5% of the total supply. Among cryptocurrency exchanges, Coinbase ranks first. The digital asset platform holds 993,069 BTC worth roughly $68 billion, accounting for about 5% of the circulating supply.  Related Reading: Macro Wobbles May Send Bitcoin Back To The $50,000s, Industry CEO Claims Binance, Robinhood, and Upbit also rank among the largest cryptocurrency exchange holders, with approximately 660,000 BTC, 184,000 BTC, and 180,000 BTC, respectively.  In the US sport Bitcoin exchange‑traded fund sector (ETF), BlackRock stands out as the largest ETF issuer by Bitcoin holdings, with 761,801 BTC valued at about $52 billion, equivalent to 3.8% of supply.  Asset manager and also crypto exchange-traded fund issuer Grayscale currently holds 218,000 BTC valued at around $20 billion, with all of its assets custodied by crypto exchange Coinbase. Strategy Leads Corporate BTC Race Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the largest public corporate holder. The company has accumulated Bitcoin steadily since August 2020, making purchases every few weeks.  Its total holdings now stand at 714,644 BTC, worth approximately $54.3 billion. Of that amount, 415,230 BTC are directly confirmed on‑chain, valued at $28 billion, representing 2.1% of supply, while the broader total equates to roughly 3.5%. Other public companies are also building significant reserves. MARA, a North American Bitcoin mining firm, operates nine mining facilities and averaged 22.7 BTC mined per day in September 2025.  Arkham data shows MARA controls 13,000 BTC on‑chain, valued at about $864 million, though the company reports a treasury reserve of 53,200 BTC.  The Biggest Private And Government Holders Private companies also command sizable Bitcoin positions. Tether leads this group with 96,369 BTC valued at $6.5 billion, representing 0.48% of total supply. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, holds 8,285 BTC, according to Arkham’s verified data.  Additionally, the Bitcoin Treasuries website lists Block.one as the largest private corporate holder with 164,000 BTC. However, Arkham notes that Block.one’s holdings cannot be independently verified on‑chain.  Related Reading: $274 Billion In Potential Bitcoin Selling Could Hit Markets, Expert Says Government holdings form another key category. Arkham’s data identifies the United States government as the largest verified state holder, with 328,372 BTC worth approximately $22 billion, representing 1.64% of the total supply.  The United Arab Emirates is also emerging as a major player. Arkham identified significant mining activity in the Gulf state, with 6,800 BTC attributed to operations conducted by Citadel, a public mining firm majority‑owned by the UAE Royal Group through International Holding Company (IHC). At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,299. It registered losses of 2% and 1.2% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. This has prevented the token from surpassing the nearest resistance wall at $70,000.   Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com