Bitcoin price started a major increase above $68,000. BTC is now struggling to clear the $70,000 resistance and might correct some gains. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,000 support. The price is trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,500 and $67,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Rallies 10% Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price is now correcting gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,200 level. A close above the $69,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,200 and $72,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,500 level. The first major support is near the $67,200 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $66,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,500, followed by $67,200. Major Resistance Levels – $68,500 and $69,200.
According to a new forecast from an Elliott Wave analyst, the Bitcoin price could be gearing up for more pain as bearish pressures continue to weigh heavily on it. As a final bear market move, the analyst has projected that Bitcoin could crash by more than 14% from its current price near $65,000. Bitcoin Price Readies For Final Bear Market Plunge Elliott Wave Strategy, a market expert on X who focuses primarily on Elliott Wave structures and analysis, has warned that Bitcoin is entering its final leg down of its current bear market cycle. In his updated post, the analyst declared that BTC’s corrective Wave 4 structure has ended precisely as projected. He summarized the outlook bluntly, stating that the relief phase is finally over and Wave 5 is now in motion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance To Experience Major Crash? Pundit Shares What This Would Mean The accompanying TradingView chart shows Wave 5 beginning at the end of a triangle formation, which marked Wave 4. The projected target for the final wave has been clearly defined, with the first measured move expected to drag Bitcoin’s price down toward the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level at $60,385. Elliott Wave Strategy has also forecasted a potential market bottom. He expects Bitcoin to decline further to the next bearish target at $55,759, marked by the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Based on the expert’s analysis, BTC’s current structure shows no clear signs of a possible recovery until it completes its correction. As a result, the analyst has urged investors and traders to brace for the potential decline to $55,759, which could wipe out more than 55% of BTC’s value from its ATH levels above $126,000. A Recap Of Bitcoin’s Wave 4 Performance Based on the wave count displayed on the Elliott Wave Strategy’s chart, Bitcoin has already completed Waves 1 through 4 of a five-wave bearish impulse. The structure shows an earlier price breakdown from above $90,000, slicing through the 0.382 retracement at $90,601 before accelerating below $75,300, which coincided with the 0.5 retracement level. Following this, Bitcoin continued its downward spiral below the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement at $71,689.20, marking the start of the Wave 4 consolidation. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 In a previous analysis, Elliott Wave Strategy noted that Bitcoin had already entered its corrective Wave 4 structure as of February 12. He warned that the temporary rally above $71,000 that preceded the onset of Wave 4 should not be mistaken for a new bull market cycle, reinforcing his predominantly bearish stance on BTC. The now-completed Wave 4 triangle has been capped by descending resistance near $70,000 and supported by a rising trendline around $66,000. Elliott Wave Strategy characterized this trendline as a classic bearish continuation pattern, suggesting further downside pressure for BTC’s already weak price. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
In a sign of the growing convergence between traditional finance and digital assets, Emirates NBD is reportedly exploring the addition of Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. The development reflects a broader shift in institutional strategy, as major financial institutions increasingly recognize BTC’s potential role in portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and long-term value preservation. Why Emirates NBD Is Exploring Bitcoin Integration Emirates NBD, one of the largest banks in the United Arab Emirates but frequently described as the UAE’s second-largest bank, is actively evaluating whether to add Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. Crypto market commentator MartyParty has mentioned on X that the news stems directly from comments by Maurice Gravier, the Group Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Emirates NBD, during an appearance on CNBC Squawk Box. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees “Most Aggressive” Institutional Selling Ever, Analyst Says Gravier’s key points were viewing BTC as digital gold and framing it primarily as a store of value rather than merely an alternative currency. He noted that Bitcoin has matured significantly, citing its proof-of-work security model, limited supply, and structurally low inflation rate as attributes that enhance its appeal to institutional investors. Furthermore, Gravier has suggested that BTC’s current valuation appears more attractive compared to six months ago, when the price was considered relatively high. According to MartyParty’s summary, the bank has an internet model, and indicates that BTC could reasonably approach the $100,000 range within the next 12 months. However, the projections are still being refined. The Emirates NBD’s bank asset management division reportedly oversees approximately $16 billion in assets, and any potential allocation would be limited in size and used for diversification purposes. Nonetheless, with no final decision or execution, it is still under review amid ongoing market volatility. This consideration has highlighted a growing institutional interest in BTC across traditional finance in the Middle East. How Businesses Are Using BTC Payments At Scale While individuals are focused on Bitcoin dropping to $63,000, with the price down 50% from its high, a major milestone in its underlying network activity last week has largely gone unnoticed. Crypto analyst Fernando Nikolić pointed out that the Lightning Network surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time, reaching approximately $1.17 billion across 5.2 million transactions in November. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The data shows that the average transaction size nearly doubled year-over-year from $118 to $223, indicating that this is not just micropayment experimentation. Nikolić believes that businesses are using it, and exchanges are moving real money through it. In other words, its actual usage as a payment network just hit an all-time high. In his view, both realities can coexist and underscore a broader disconnect between market narratives and underlying network fundamentals. Also, Nikolić noted that the adoption milestone has received relatively little attention because it challenges the dominant bearish storyline surrounding the BTC price action. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
Peter Schiff has a number. And he wants everyone to see it. The longtime gold supporter and Bitcoin critic took to social media this week to argue that when Bitcoin’s price is measured in gold rather than dollars, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost more than 66% of its value since hitting its all-time high in November 2021. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The Math Behind Schiff’s Claim To make his case, Schiff reframed the comparison in a way that sidesteps the usual dollar-based charts. Back in November 2021, one Bitcoin could buy roughly 34.5 ounces of gold. Today, that same Bitcoin buys just 12 ounces — a drop of more than 64% in purchasing power relative to the precious metal. The dollar figures tell a similar story, at least from that starting point. According to Schiff, a $10,000 investment in Bitcoin at the November 2021 peak would be worth around $9,100 today. That same $10,000 put into gold over the identical period would have grown to more than $27,000. Gold was trading near $1,770 in late 2021 and has since climbed past $5,000 — a gain of roughly 185%. Bitcoin, by contrast, peaked at $69,000 during that same bull run. It has since pulled back sharply from a high of $126,200 reached in October 2025, and now sits around $63,000. Bitcoin is now down over 66% when priced in gold since its Nov. 2021 peak over four years ago. Putting that into perspective, had you invested $10,000 in Bitcoin back then, it would be worth about $9,100 today. But that same $10,000 invested in gold would be worth over $27,000. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 24, 2026 Bitcoin’s ‘Safe Haven’ Story Gets Complicated For years, Bitcoin was pitched to investors as a modern alternative to gold — scarce, decentralized, and resistant to inflation. The idea was simple: fixed supply would protect wealth the same way gold has for centuries. But recent market behavior has put that story under strain. When economic anxiety rises, many investors have continued to move money into gold rather than Bitcoin. Reports note that Bitcoin has, in several instances, moved more like a high-risk tech stock than a safe haven asset during periods of broader market stress. That pattern has made it harder for Bitcoin to claim the same defensive reputation that gold has built over a much longer history. CNBC crypto commentator Ran Neuner has also weighed in on the subject, saying that the store-of-value case for Bitcoin now faces serious scrutiny. Bitcoin supporters, for their part, push back on the framing. They point out that November 2021 was Bitcoin’s peak — about as unfavorable a starting point for comparison as one could choose. They also point out that the alpha crypto has climbed 320% from its cycle low of $15,000 in November 2023, while gold gained 150% over that same timeframe. For the first time in 12 years, I’m questioning Bitcoin’s thesis. It’s not the drawdown that concerns me; it’s how Bitcoin responded when markets genuinely moved into risk and uncertainty.$BTC evolved from “peer-to-peer cash” into “digital gold.” We fought for ETF approval.… pic.twitter.com/dblggAsanJ — Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) February 16, 2026 Cycles, Not Trends, Say Bitcoin Supporters Reports say Bitcoin advocates cointend the crypto has always moved through boom-and-bust cycles, with steep recoveries typically following major beat-downs. Supply halvings, shifts in available liquidity, and swings in investor sentiment have historically been the impetus to those rebounds. Related Reading: XRP Fell Nearly 70% — Could History Repeat With An 835% Surge? From that view, the current stretch of underperformance against gold is seen as a normal part of Bitcoin’s cycle rather than a permanent reversal. Bitcoin completed a full market cycle last year, and a period of price correction is consistent with its historical behavior. Still, the gap between gold’s steady climb and Bitcoin’s volatile ride has given critics plenty of material. Schiff, who has maintained his skepticism of Bitcoin for well over a decade, shows no sign of changing his position anytime soon. Featured image from Unchained Podcast, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst BitQuant has commented on why market participants are not buying Bitcoin and Ethereum despite the recent lows. This comes amid current market weakness, with the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warning of a deeper decline. Why Investors Are Not Buying The Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip In an X post, BitQuant noted that no one, except Saylor’s Strategy, is buying Bitcoin at $65,000 because of reports that the U.S. may attack Iran. He added that if that happens, many believe that BTC will drop to $50,000, which is why they are not buying. Ethereum is expected to drop further if BTC declines. Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week The analyst noted that these market participants are forgetting that Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $60,000 without any news or headlines, and that they consider this nuance unimportant. As such, he suggested that BTC and Ethereum could still see lower prices, whether or not the U.S. attacks Iran. However, BitQuant indicated that current prices do not matter in the long-term as Bitcoin and possibly Ethereum are likely to trade higher. He stated that many still don’t understand that BTC is a system and that they only see it as an asset. The analyst added that for many, BTC resembles a football match where they celebrate when there is a goal and leave the stadium when there isn’t. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market are currently facing downside pressure not only due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran but also due to the uncertainty around the Trump tariffs. The U.S. president over the weekend announced plans to hike the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). BTC Could Still Drop Below $40,000 A CryptoQuant analysis recently suggested that Bitcoin could still drop below $40,000 to around $38,900, which is the long-term holders’ (LTHs) cost basis. The analysis also alluded to historical precedent, noting that each bear market has been characterized by BTC’s price breaking below its cost basis. This triggers a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 The analysis also noted that it is only after this phase that the market has been able to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new highs. Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analysis mentioned that the Coinbase Premium Index shows limited signs of recovery. The index’s 30-minute simple moving average had briefly crossed above the zero level but failed to maintain the momentum into the new week. CryptoQuant stated that this lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has lost nearly 30% of its value since January. Yet Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is making the case that it remains one of the most powerful tools ordinary people have to fight rising prices. That gap between the pitch and the reality is hard to ignore. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Armstrong laid out his argument in a post on X, and later repeated it at the World Liberty Forum, an event hosted by the family of US President Donald Trump. The logic is straightforward: inflation quietly destroys the purchasing power of cash. Wealthier people protect themselves by moving money into stocks, real estate, and Bitcoin. People without access to those same options get hit hardest and have no way out. Inflation is a regressive tax on the poorest people in society, since they only hold cash. Once people have wealth, they can afford and get access to inflation-resistant asset classes (stocks, bitcoin, real estate, etc). Expanding financial access and opportunities globally to… — Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 23, 2026 A Fair Point, Pushed Too Far? It is a legitimate observation. Economists have made similar arguments for years — that inflation acts like a hidden tax on those with the least. Armstrong is not wrong about the problem. The prescription, though, is harder to defend. Bitcoin does not move like a slow, grinding inflation rate. It can drop 20% in a single week. For someone with no financial cushion, that is not protection. That is exposure to a different kind of loss — one that can happen far faster than any inflation rate ever could. The volatility is not a minor detail. It is the central flaw in the argument. The Law That Could Shift Things The more grounded part of Armstrong’s message involves legislation. The CLARITY Act, currently being debated in Congress, aims to define how digital assets are regulated in the US — which agencies hold authority and under what conditions. US Senator Bernie Moreno said lawmakers are pushing to pass the bill by April. Armstrong, speaking at the forum, called a balanced version of the bill a potential win for crypto firms, banks, and consumers alike. Talks have focused on stablecoins and whether they can offer competitive yields without running into existing banking rules. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $4 Billion As Investors Step Back – Here’s Why Keeping Pace With China Armstrong also raised the stakes internationally. China is advancing a government-backed digital currency that pays interest. His message to US regulators was direct: fall behind on stablecoin policy, and America loses ground in a competition it should be leading. It is a real concern — even if his inflation argument leaves something to be desired. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
Coinbase says Bitcoin’s near-term path may hinge on two price zones: roughly $82,000 on the upside and $60,000 on the downside. In a new X post outlining its BTC “practical playbook,” the exchange argues that combining structural support/resistance bands with options gamma exposure sharpens the trading map for whether BTC is more likely to mean-revert, break out, or accelerate lower. The core framework starts with Coinbase’s previously shared heatmap of “real supply and demand levels,” built by aggregating market structure pivot points and volume into price bands. In that setup, the densest support cluster sits near $60,000, while the first dense resistance band sits around $82,000. Coinbase describes those areas as zones where market interest has already been established and where “significant pools of resting liquidity typically gather.” Why Bitcoin Gamma Changes The Read This week’s addition is gamma exposure (GEX), which Coinbase frames as a way to map how options dealers’ hedging flows may either absorb volatility or amplify it. The firm calls the options market a “hidden liquidity provider” and says GEX helps investors decide whether conditions favor range trades or breakout trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs Coinbase explains the mechanism in practical terms: when dealers are long gamma, their hedging tends to lean against price moves; when they are short gamma, hedging can reinforce the move. “In positive gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior often looks like a shock absorber because if BTC rises, dealers sell spot (or sell futures) to stay hedged. If BTC falls, they buy to rebalance. That ‘sell strength / buy weakness’ pattern reduces realized volatility and increases the odds of consolidation and ‘pinning’ around nearby strike clusters.” It then contrasts that with the negative-gamma regime. “In negative gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior can flip into a trend amplifier. Rising BTC prices force hedgers to buy more while falling prices force hedgers to sell more. That ‘buy strength / sell weakness’ loop can turn ordinary breaks into fast repricing and liquidation-style cascades.” After layering GEX onto its pivot map, Coinbase’s conclusion is straightforward but consequential. “$82k remains the first gate to unlock further upside, while $60k appears to be the shelf that must hold to prevent accelerated downside,” the post says. It ties that to a “pronounced negative gamma band” in the $60,000–$70,000 region and “meaningful positive gamma pockets” around $85,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ That combination shapes the regime expectations. Coinbase says downside into $60,000 can accelerate because negative gamma may amplify selling pressure, while upside toward $90,000 may be more prone to grinding and pinning as positive gamma hedging dampens momentum. How Coinbase Frames The Setups The playbook’s scenario analysis reflects that asymmetry. Around $82,000, Coinbase treats first-touch rejection as a credible risk in a dense supply zone, especially without a clear macro catalyst. If BTC fails there, it says mean reversion becomes the higher-probability expression and warns breakout chasers can get trapped. By contrast, a clean break above $82,000 is not defined by a brief spike but by “acceptance” — reclaiming the level, holding it, and using it as support. Coinbase argues that would suggest supply has been absorbed and raise continuation odds into higher liquidity bands, while still acknowledging the positive gamma pocket above could increase chop risk. The $60,000 zone is framed even more carefully. Coinbase says it prefers long exposure only after a reclaim signal if BTC flushes into that area, rather than trying to catch the initial move lower, because negative gamma can make the path “violent and prone to overshooting.” If $60,000 fails and BTC cannot reclaim it, Coinbase says the break could mark another “regime change” where downside extends faster than discretionary dip buyers expect. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $65,026. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto investment funds have now recorded a fifth straight week of net outflows, wiping roughly $4 billion from investor coffers over that span. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red That steady removal of capital has been paired with a sharp fall in trading activity, signaling that many holders are standing on the sidelines rather than buying dips. Trading Volume Hits Multi-Month Low According to a CoinShares report published Monday, crypto funds saw $288 million in net outflows last week, bringing the five-week total to roughly $4 billion. Weekly trading volumes also fell to about $17 billion, the lowest level since mid-2025, highlighting a slowdown in market activity even as prices have recently stabilized. Fewer transactions were recorded across major investment products, reflecting a quieter stretch for the market compared with earlier periods of heavier trading. Regional Flows Paint A Split Picture Reports note the US led withdrawals, while parts of Europe and Canada added fresh money. The US recorded $347 million of outflows, while Europe and Canada together showed net inflows of close to $60 million. Digital asset investment products recorded US$288M in outflows last week.@Bitcoin remains the key proponent of this negative sentiment, seeing US$215M in outflows. @ethereum saw the second largest outflows totalling US$36.5M. Minor inflows were seen in XRP @Ripple (US$3.5M),… pic.twitter.com/HFWIxVAZgO — CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) February 23, 2026 Countries such as Switzerland, Canada, and Germany were among those adding funds. That split shows that not all investors view the market the same way right now. Some see value at lower prices; others are trimming exposure until clearer signs appear. Bitcoin Remains The Main Focus Of Selling Bitcoin accounted for the largest single-asset outflows, with about $215 million removed last week. At the same time, instruments that profit from falling prices received renewed interest, with short-Bitcoin products taking in around $5.5 million. A fair amount of recent liquidations was tied to Bitcoin moves, driven by traders who had large positions and saw prices move against them. Some positions were forced closed. That pushed volatility up in the short term. Ethereum and a handful of other coins also saw money leave, though a few assets attracted small inflows. XRP, Solana, and Chainlink each gained minor sums relative to the overall outflow. These were selective bets rather than broad rotations back into risk assets. Investment managers who moved into specific tokens appeared to be making tactical, not broad, commitments. Sidelined Capital Is Waiting Reports say much of the market’s strength depends on outside cash returning. Right now, many potential buyers are waiting for clearer signals from the macro side — interest rates, big economic reports, and policy hints from regulators. Without sustained buying, price bounces are more likely to be brief technical recoveries than full trend changes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Nears Century Mark, Saylor Hints A Pause More Than A Collapse This is not a market breakdown. It is a pause, according to analysts. Participation has dropped and that creates a fragile environment. If macro sentiment shifts and more buyers step in, flows could reverse quickly. Until then, expect choppy moves, low volume, and a market that reacts strongly to each new piece of news. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure and weakening sentiment keep the market in a fragile state. Price action has remained subdued in recent weeks, with volatility elevated and risk appetite constrained by tightening liquidity conditions and macro uncertainty. The inability to secure sustained acceptance above this psychological threshold has reinforced caution among traders, leaving Bitcoin in what increasingly resembles a defensive phase rather than an early recovery environment. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators According to top analyst Axel Adler, recent on-chain data support this interpretation. Realized capitalization — which measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin based on the last price each coin moved — has declined for the second consecutive month. At the same time, the 3–6 month holder cohort has expanded significantly as coins acquired near cycle highs mature into that category. This dynamic typically reflects post-peak positioning rather than fresh accumulation. The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently sits around -2.26%, indicating sustained capital outflows from the network. Realized Cap peaked near $1.127 trillion in late November 2025 and has since contracted to roughly $1.094 trillion, representing about $33 billion in compression. Until this metric returns decisively to positive territory, evidence of renewed accumulation demand remains limited. HODL Waves Highlight Defensive Market Structure Adler notes that the latest HODL Waves data reinforces the view that Bitcoin remains in a defensive phase rather than active accumulation. The chart shows a sharp expansion in the 3–6 month coin-age cohort, which has risen to approximately 25.9% of the circulating supply. This reflects a growing share of coins last moved between August and November 2025 — a period closely aligned with purchases near the market peak. HODL Waves track the distribution of Bitcoin supply based on how long coins have remained dormant. Expansion of older cohorts generally indicates reduced transactional activity. However, in this case, the data suggests not confident accumulation but rather a “costly hold” environment, where many investors are sitting on underwater positions. The 3–6 month cohort has surged from roughly 19% at the start of February, while the 6–12 month group has also grown to about 20.2%. Meanwhile, short-term coins under one month account for only about 9.3% combined, signaling limited fresh demand entering the market. Combined with declining realized capitalization, the data points toward an aging supply without corresponding capital inflows. Until newer buying activity emerges and the 3–6 month cohort migrates into longer-term holding bands without selling pressure, Bitcoin’s broader market structure is likely to remain defensive rather than decisively bullish. Related Reading: The $45 Million Crypto Hammer: Whale Inflow To Binance Threatens To Shatter XRP’s Recovery Bitcoin Momentum Weakens As Price Tests Key Support Zone Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects clear structural deterioration as price accelerates lower toward the $63,000 region. After failing to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 supply zone earlier in the year, BTC formed a distribution range before breaking decisively below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages. That breakdown triggered a sharp leg down, confirming a shift from consolidation to trend continuation on this timeframe. Currently, price trades well beneath the 50 SMA (~$92,000) and the 100 SMA (~$101,500), both of which have rolled over and now act as overhead resistance. The 200 SMA near the low-$90,000 region also remains far above the current price, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. The alignment of these moving averages — with shorter-term averages below longer-term ones — confirms negative momentum and sustained downside pressure. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion Volume expanded during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than passive drift. The sharp rejection from the mid-$90,000 area, followed by impulsive downside candles, suggests sellers remain in control. From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone becomes the next critical support region. A sustained break below it could open the path toward deeper retracement levels. To stabilize, Bitcoin would need to reclaim at least the $75,000–$80,000 area and rebuild higher highs — a scenario not yet supported by current momentum. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could be approaching a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the 3-day chart. Bitcoin Is Potentially Nearing A Death Cross On The 3-Day Timeframe In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a death cross on Bitcoin’s 3-day price chart. A “death cross” popularly refers to a bearish signal produced by a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) of an asset. Typically, a death cross involves the longer SMA moving above the shorter one. In the context of the current topic, the SMAs of relevance are the 50-day and 200-day versions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the pattern displayed by these two SMAs for the 3-day Bitcoin price. As is visible in the graph, the 50-day SMA of the 3-day Bitcoin price saw a cross under the 200-day SMA in each of the last three cycles. All of these crossovers preceded bearish price action. More specifically, the 2014 crossover led to a drawdown of 52.19% for the asset, the 2018 one to 50.56%, and the 2022 one to 45.91%. Interestingly, these price declines all led to the bottoms of their respective bear markets. “Since 2014, the death cross between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg down of a Bitcoin $BTC bear market,” noted the analyst. Jumping to the present, BTC has faced a bearish shift in recent months with a notable drawdown in its price. This has resulted in the 50-day SMA witnessing a decline toward the 200-day SMA. As a zoomed-in chart shared by Martinez in another X post shows, there is now not much distance left between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs of the 3-day Bitcoin price. If the two lines continue to follow the current trajectories, the analyst has estimated that a death cross could occur on February 27th. Given the past trend, such a death cross could take Bitcoin into its final leg for the bear market. It only remains to be seen, however, whether the current cycle will actually follow a similar pattern or if it will show divergence. Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back In some other news, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has slipped into the loss region recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted in an X post. In the past, a shift toward loss realization on the Bitcoin network has generally lasted for over six months before a return of liquidity has occurred. BTC Price Bitcoin has erased some of its recent recovery over the past couple of days as its price is now trading around $63,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is sitting at a decisive inflection point. After losing key support and pressing into range extremes, the market now faces a clear binary outcome: reclaim the range highs and shift momentum back to the upside, or fail and extend toward new weekly lows. The next move from here will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Bitcoin Tests Range Extremes Currently, Bitcoin is navigating a period of high tension as it tests its range extremes, a phase that analyst Lennaert Snyder notes can feel intimidating for many traders. However, these moments of extreme volatility often serve as the foundation for the highest-quality setups. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ The current strategy remains patient, focusing on a Market Structure Break (MSB) as the primary prerequisite for entering a long position. On the H4 timeframe, the specific level to watch is the $66,590 high. Gaining and holding this level would signal a shift in momentum, providing the initial green light for bulls to step in. While the $66,590 mark is the first hurdle, the true pivot for a structural bullish flip sits at approximately $68,000. This level is of paramount importance because it hosts the Point of Control (POC) for the entire range. Reclaiming this zone would shift the narrative from a defensive to an offensive posture, confirming that buyers have regained control of the value area. If Bitcoin successfully regains the $68,000 level, it opens a clear path to the $71,422 resistance. Beyond that, the ultimate objective for this move would be the massive liquidity cluster sitting at $76,971. Thus, the $68,000 zone is also a critical area for bears as it could become a prime short entry following a confirmed rejection. Conversely, the market must account for the possibility of a bull trap at the lower resistance levels. If Bitcoin sweeps the $66,590 high only to be met with a sharp rejection, it would suggest that the rally was merely a liquidity grab. Such a failure would likely trigger an aggressive short-selling wave, potentially driving the price down to establish new weekly lows. $65,000 Support Lost — Momentum Shifts Lower In a recent update, Ted noted that Bitcoin has now broken below the key $65,000 support zone, shifting short-term momentum back in favor of the bears. Losing this level weakens the immediate structure and opens the door for further downside exploration. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts That said, significant bid liquidity is stacked between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a potential demand pocket. However, whether that zone holds may largely depend on broader market conditions, particularly how the stock market behaves in the coming sessions. Given the current setup, a sweep of the $60K lows appears increasingly likely before any meaningful reversal attempt. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price failed to stay above $65,000 and dipped further. BTC is now recovering losses from $62,500 and faces hurdles near the $66,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $65,000 support. The price is trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Recovers Some Ground Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $65,000 support zone. There was a push below $64,000. The price even spiked below $63,000. A low was formed at $62,500, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $65,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,654 swing high to the $62,500 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $66,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $67,200 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,654 swing high to the $62,500 low. A close above the $67,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $68,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $69,200 and $69,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $66,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level. The next support is now near the $64,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $63,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,500, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $66,500 and $67,200.
Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger argued in an X post on February 23 that Bitcoin’s early-2026 hashrate rebound is more than a mining-cycle recovery and may be a lagging signal of a broader price move ahead. His core thesis is that sovereign-linked mining activity is starting to play for Bitcoin the same structural role central bank gold buying played for gold before its breakout. Weisberger frames the comparison through the recent gold cycle, where he says sovereign accumulation preceded price discovery by years. In his telling, the key signal was not ETF demand or retail flows, but central banks steadily adding reserves as geopolitical fragmentation and fiat-risk concerns rose. “The result? A parabolic gold rally that few saw coming in real time,” he wrote. “Gold has surged to record highs well north of $5,000/oz in this cycle, leaving the ‘it’s just inflation’ crowd scrambling. The buying came first. The price discovery followed later.” Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back Why Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery Is Signalling The Next Rally Applying that framework to Bitcoin, Weisberger points to what he describes as a “textbook V-shaped recovery” in network hashrate in early 2026. After a sharp pullback of roughly 15% to 20% from prior peaks, he says computational power rebounded from below 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s, accompanied by one of the largest absolute difficulty increases on record, at nearly 15%. For Weisberger, that recovery is not just a post-stress normalization after winter curtailments, regional shutdowns, and post-halving margin compression. He argues it reflects a different class of miner stepping in. “This isn’t random noise. It is the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in where private miners hesitated,” he wrote. A central part of the post is Weisberger’s claim that at least 13 nation-states are now mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked level (backed by VanEck research). He cites Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, and also names Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as countries deploying energy assets into mining. “These are not retail or even corporate miners chasing daily hashprice,” he wrote. “These are governments converting stranded or strategic energy into a portable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve asset. They mine for policy reasons: revenue without printing more local currency, network security in which they hold a direct stake, and positioning in a world where financial sovereignty matters.” Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ Weisberger argues sovereign miners operate with different constraints than private miners: longer time horizons, different cost of capital, and less need to sell output into market weakness. In that framework, sovereign mining becomes a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC directly into long-term holdings, reducing sell-side pressure while also strengthening network security. Weisberger explicitly describes hashrate recovery as a lagged, not coincident, indicator, because sovereign mining expansion requires hardware procurement, energy contracts, infrastructure buildout, and policy approvals. Those processes move slowly, often during periods when price action appears flat or corrective. He argues that this sequence can change market structure before price reflects it: stronger security, tighter issuance flow, and broader validation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than a purely speculative vehicle. His conclusion is blunt: “The hashrate recovery isn’t just technical resilience. It is a sovereign signal flashing bright. Governments are voting with energy infrastructure and balance sheets.” At press time, BTC traded at $63,209. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price performance may appear subdued, with the leading crypto currently trading below the $65,000 level and sitting around 50% under all-time highs, but a new report from River suggests that adoption trends in 2025 tell a very different story. According to the firm, the network’s growth across institutions, businesses, financial advisors, and even nation-states accelerated sharply over the past year, despite market weakness. Institutional Bitcoin Demand One of the most notable developments has been the scale of institutional accumulation. River reports that institutions acquired approximately 829,000 Bitcoin in 2025 alone. These buyers included corporations, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investment funds, and government-related entities. Related Reading: History Repeating? XRP Flashes Signal Last Seen Before Explosive 60,000% Rally Investment advisors have also emerged as steady buyers. Registered investment advisors (RIAs), which collectively oversee around $146 trillion in client assets, have been net purchasers of Bitcoin exposure for eight consecutive quarters. Their participation largely began after the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024. Over the past two years, RIAs have invested approximately $1.5 billion per quarter into Bitcoin ETFs, without a single quarter of net selling. Adoption within this group is already widespread: 29 of the top 30 US RIAs hold Bitcoin exposure. However, allocations remain minimal, averaging just 0.008% of assets, leaving considerable room for expansion. Surge In Bank, Corporate And Retail Adoption Traditional banks are also moving closer to the asset. Around 60% of the largest US banks are reportedly developing Bitcoin-related products. Corporate adoption accelerated as well. Public company ownership of Bitcoin increased by 2.5 times in 2025, with businesses collectively ranking as the largest net buyers during the year. Much of this demand came from Bitcoin treasury companies, but River notes that many established corporations have been quietly adding BTC in smaller amounts. The firm expects this type of balance sheet adoption to expand across the S&P 500 in the years ahead. Merchant usage has grown at a rapid pace. In the United States, the number of businesses accepting BTC payments tripled in 2025, while global merchant adoption rose by 74%. River, which serves more than 3,000 businesses across multiple industries, reports that the strongest growth is occurring among small, privately held companies, many of which do not publicly disclose their Bitcoin strategies. Nation-States Expand BTC Holdings Nation-state involvement also increased. Five additional countries became Bitcoin holders in 2025. Among them were Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, whose sovereign wealth funds acquired exposure, and the Czech Republic. Governments have accumulated Bitcoin through a variety of channels, including state-backed mining operations, direct purchases, ETF exposure, asset seizures, donations, and even hacking-related recoveries. Related Reading: World Liberty Financial Cites ‘Coordinated Attack’ — But Are There Deeper Issues? Looking ahead, River argues that the divergence between price performance and adoption is striking. While the current phase of growth may not immediately translate into dramatic price multiples, it reflects a deeper form of progress: We expect that in the coming years, Bitcoin adoption will not only continue its current trend but meaningfully accelerate. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $64,459, marking losses of 26% and 31% over the past thirty days and year-to-date, respectively. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A potential final sell-off in Bitcoin is back in focus after market analyst Aaron Dishner warned that the asset appears structurally close to capitulation. Based on cycle timing, historical drawdowns, and converging technical signals, he argues the market may be nearing its last downside move before a longer-term bottom forms. He urges investors to brace for volatility as this “bottom year” unfolds. Bitcoin’s Past Fractal Points To One More Flush Dishner’s framework centers on a structural comparison to May 2022. On the weekly BTC/USDT chart, he outlines a sequence mirroring prior bear market endings: a major high, a liquidation-driven drop, a failed relief rally forming a bear flag, and a breakdown into new lows. After that breakdown, the price typically moves sideways before a final aggressive sell-off. Related Reading: AI Explains What’s Driving The Ethereum Price Volatility, Can It Rise Above $3,000 Again? He projects a downside target around $35,000–$40,000, aligning with historical drawdowns of 70% to 75% from all-time highs. Previous cycles support this range: the 2013–2015 decline lasted about 59 weeks with an 87% drawdown; the 2017–2018 cycle spanned roughly a year with an 84% decline; and the 2021–2022 bear phase retraced around 77% over 54 weeks. Based on this pattern, he expects the current cycle to extend at least 52 weeks from its peak, placing a potential bottom near October 2026. Moreover, weekly RSI has reached deeply oversold territory, levels historically associated with capitulation events such as late 2018 and the COVID crash. While not at the most extreme historical lows, RSI is within the zone that previously preceded large downside wicks and sharp sell-offs. Volume metrics also show deterioration. On-balance volume across major exchanges reflects persistent distribution, resembling conditions seen before prior cycle lows. The broader takeaway is that price structure, momentum, and volume are converging toward what Dishner describes as a final flush. Stablecoin Dominance And S&P Risk Add Pressure Dishner also highlights combined stablecoin dominance, specifically USDT and USDC. Historically, sharp increases in stablecoin dominance have coincided with heavy Bitcoin sell-offs. He notes dominance is approaching resistance near 13%, and previous breakout clusters preceded steep downside moves in BTC. RSI behavior on the dominance chart mirrors pre-capitulation setups from 2022. In that cycle, a spike in dominance aligned with Bitcoin’s June decline, followed by weeks of choppy consolidation before recovery attempts. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Third Time Breakout Could Send Price On 2,000% Rally To $2 Macro risk compounds the outlook. Dishner points to bearish divergence signals on the S&P 500, referencing clusters of downside momentum warnings seen near prior equity tops. An 8% pullback is viewed as plausible, with a deeper 20%–25% correction representing a high-impact scenario. In his assessment, a significant equity drawdown would transmit stress into digital assets, intensifying margin pressure and accelerating Bitcoin’s decline. Even after capitulation, history suggests the market may not immediately reverse. Prior cycles required 19 to 40 weeks of sideways or unstable price action before sustained recovery began. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin may be entering its final sell-off phase, potentially bottoming around October. Until then, Dishner maintains conditions remain structurally bearish, with elevated risk across crypto and traditional markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin flipped a small but notable technical switch this week when the Coinbase premium moved back above zero, ending a run of negative readings that began after heavy selling on February 6. Related Reading: XRP Fell Nearly 70% — Could History Repeat With An 835% Surge? Coinbase Premium Flips Above Zero According to market data published on February 23, 2026, Bitcoin was trading around $66,150 on Binance futures at one point, showing a brief hourly uptick of 0.40%. Yet other spot indexes told a different slice of the story: CoinMarketCap listed BTC near $65,070 and flagged a roughly 3% drop for the day. Those gaps are normal: futures, spot feeds, and aggregate trackers can diverge. What matters here is the premium’s direction — it had been negative for much of February and then crossed into positive territory. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium has flipped positive for the first time since the Feb 6th bottom. It looks like institutions are done with selling for now. pic.twitter.com/rUYgxO2Fo8 — Ted (@TedPillows) February 23, 2026 Why Traders Care About The Premium Coinbase is widely used by big US buyers, so a positive premium is read by many traders as a hint that domestic spot demand is outpacing offshore pressure. But a flip above zero is only a starting signal. The size of the spread, how long it holds, and whether exchange inflows back up the move are the things that turn a signal into a trend. Small, short-lived flips can be caused by temporary liquidity differences or quick arbitrage trades. Larger, sustained spreads are the ones that tend to matter to portfolio managers. Geopolitics And Market Mood Market watchers are also pointing to broader factors. Rising tensions between the US and Iran, along with talk about tariff adjustments linked to US President Donald Trump, have driven investors toward safer assets in recent sessions. That mood has at times pushed BTC below important technical cushions near $65,000, and some sessions saw brief dips under $64,000 before a few calm windows allowed minor rebounds. When fear spikes, crypto often feels it first. Derivatives, Volume, And Technical Levels Futures activity on Binance and other platforms stayed busy, even if volume didn’t show the sort of surge that precedes big breakouts. Reports put daily trading volume near $45.71 billion while market cap sat close to $1.30 trillion. Funding rates, open interest, and exchange inflows are being monitored closely; each can either confirm or undercut the message from the Coinbase premium. A rising open interest that aligns with a growing premium would be more persuasive than a lone spread tick. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Nears Century Mark, Saylor Hints Encouraging Signs A Coinbase premium turning positive offers a hopeful signal after weeks below zero, but it doesn’t confirm a sustained rally. Investors will be tracking how large the spread is, whether Coinbase sees significant inflows, and if funding rates and open interest support the move. Traders are likely to wait through the next sessions for clear signs before considering the market stabilized. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
After closing the week below a crucial support level, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $65,000 support for the first time since the early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152. Amid this performance, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto could be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that another major crash could be around the corner. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mirrors Software Stocks More Than Any Other Market — Here’s Why Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “historically pivotal” development after closing last week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits “at the center of a major confluence zone.” Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, located between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, around the $58,000-$60,000 levels, define the broader structure of BTC’s current range. Over the past three weeks, the cryptocurrency attempted to develop a demand region around this area, which was previously a major supply area. However, this level hasn’t historically been a structurally reliable support for BTC’s price, the analyst asserted, noting that it has previously acted as a 10-month resistance. “In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response,” he explained. Per the post, this imbalance has led to a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, losing it as support in this timeframe. This suggests that a “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” could follow soon. The analyst cautioned that now that price has closed the week below this critical level, there is a “strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.” If the underside retest holds, the structure would shift from defending the support to confirming the resistance at this level. He warned that if that level begins to act as resistance, downside continuation will become increasingly probable. BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000 Rekt Capital also noted that BTC’s recent performance aligns closely with its price action in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA acted as a structural trigger to the second wave of bearish acceleration. “Bitcoin would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower. That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself,” he asserted. Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historical performance, but on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective. According to Martinez’s post, market observers must watch the upcoming interaction of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), as the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has historically preceded the final leg down of the bear market. Bitcoin dropped around 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops before its death crosses took place in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto experienced another 45%-52% decline. Related Reading: Investors In Trump Family Memecoins Record $4.3 Billion In Losses As Tokens Sink Now, BTC has fallen more than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential death cross on the three-day chart by the end of February. “If history repeats — even partially — this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned. Based on this, Martinez predicted that another 30%-50% correction from current levels could follow, placing the cryptocurrency’s target near the $30,000-$40,000 supports. “If the cross confirms, it becomes a level to take very seriously,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
In six months, the Bitcoin price has crashed by around 50%, dropping below $64,000 at the start of this month. Naturally, this has triggered a cascading event, with devastating effects on the rest of the market, and questions about what could be driving the decline. With no notable event driving the crash, as was seen in 2022 with the crash of the FTX crypto exchange, the simple answer has pointed to one thing: large investors are selling. Corporate Holders Are Getting Out Of Bitcoin In an X post, Coin Bureau highlighted an interesting trend among corporate Bitcoin holders that could explain the sustained decline the digital asset has suffered in recent times. According to the chart shared on the post, these large corporate holders have been dumping their holdings. Related Reading: Ready For A 443% Dogecoin Move? The Meme Coin Just Touched A Historically Explosive Level For the better part of 2025, there had been a clear trend of accumulation among corporate buyers. Sometimes, the buying trend would be sustained for weeks before a sell-off trend would be recorded. However, this is quickly changing as the last few weeks have been dominated by dumping. The post showed that in the last three weeks, there has been no buying done. Rather, corporate investors have been dumping BTC on the market. For context, the longest selling streak among these large investors recorded in history was two weeks before buying began again. However, at the time of writing, only outflows have dominated the treasuries of these companies, marking a new record since companies began buying Bitcoin in 2020. Given this, it is possible that the accumulation trend that drove Bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2025 may have ended. Data from CoinShares also corroborates this sell-off trend. In its Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, it shows that in just the last week alone, Bitcoin lost $215.3 million to outflows from digital asset funds, thereby leading the sell-offs. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 In the same vein, Ethereum suffered outflows of 36.5 million, and multi-asset funds saw $32.5 million in outflows. Interestingly, though, the likes of XRP and Solana continue to see inflows, despite their poor performance in the market. Given this trend, it shows that corporate investors are looking to altcoins for likely higher profit margins compared to Bitcoin. As supply continues to pile up in the market, it is likely that the Bitcoin price will continue to fall until buying picks up once again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders continue to capitulate as they are realizing net losses of $0.48 billion every day. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Net Realized Profit/Loss Is Notably Red According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Net Realized Profit/Loss has been negative for the Bitcoin short-term holders recently. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of profit or loss that BTC investors are harvesting through their selling. Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back The version of the metric that’s of relevance here specifically tracks this for the short-term holders (STHs), a BTC investor cohort that includes only buyers from the last 155 days. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them in the future. Since the STHs represent the new entrants into the market, their resilience tends to be low, and they may take part in panic selling during market volatility. Recently, Bitcoin has faced a major drawdown and the STHs have naturally reacted to it. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Net Realized Profit/Loss has fluctuated for this group during the recent volatility. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Net Realized Profit/Loss saw a deep plunge into the negative territory during the price downturn that followed the October high, implying realized losses notably outweighed the profits. In January, the metric recovered toward the neutral mark as the market saw an uplift, but the price drawdown since the end of the month has again taken the indicator to a highly red level. On February 6th, the STH Net Realized Profit/Loss fell to a value of -$1.24 billion per day, notably lower than the red peak observed last year. Since this low, the metric has risen a bit and today, it’s sitting at -$0.48 billion per day. “While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate,” explained the analytics firm. In some other news, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been negative recently, as highlighted by CryptoQuant author IT Tech in an X post. The Coinbase Premium Gap tracks the difference between the Bitcoin spot price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has maintained at red values since mid-December, indicating that Coinbase users have been applying a higher amount of selling pressure than Binance traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles Coinbase is mainly used by US-based investors, especially the large institutional entities, so this trend can be a sign that there isn’t much demand for BTC among them right now. BTC Price Bitcoin has been slipping deeper as its price is now trading around $64,000. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on market sentiment. Price action has remained fragile in recent weeks, with volatility elevated and traders showing limited conviction amid tightening liquidity conditions and broader macro uncertainty. While intermittent rebounds have occurred, they have so far failed to establish sustained upside momentum, leaving Bitcoin locked in a cautious consolidation phase below a key psychological threshold. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion A recent CryptoQuant report highlights a notable structural development involving StrategyB, formerly known as MicroStrategy. It has now been more than six years since the company began its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, targeting roughly 5% of the asset’s total supply. The initiative, driven by CEO Michael Saylor — one of Bitcoin’s most vocal long-term advocates — reflects a conviction that BTC could eventually surpass the $1 million mark over time. To pursue this objective, StrategyB has executed what many consider the largest dollar-cost averaging program in Bitcoin’s history, notably without selling any BTC since inception. Annual investment figures illustrate the scale of this effort: $1.1 billion in 2020, $2.57 billion in 2021, $276 million in 2022, $1.9 billion in 2023, $21.9 billion in 2024, $22.4 billion in 2025, and $4.1 billion so far in 2026. StrategyB’s Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation And Market Implications According to the report, 2025 marked a record year for StrategyB in terms of capital deployed, with more than $22.4 billion invested into Bitcoin accumulation. The data suggests that 2026 is currently following a comparable trajectory. If this pace continues, the firm could surpass last year’s record, further consolidating its position as one of the largest institutional holders of BTC. At present, Bitcoin is trading below StrategyB’s estimated realized price, which sits near $76,000. This metric reflects the company’s average acquisition cost across its holdings. StrategyB reportedly holds approximately 717,131 BTC, equivalent to around 3.4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Such concentration highlights the scale of institutional participation now embedded in the market structure. However, the interpretation of this data requires caution. Trading below a large holder’s realized price does not automatically imply undervaluation; realized price is a cost-basis metric, not a valuation model. Market conditions, liquidity flows, and macroeconomic variables remain dominant drivers of price direction. Still, the broader takeaway is notable: even major institutional participants often rely on relatively simple accumulation strategies such as dollar-cost averaging. Whether that approach proves optimal in current conditions depends on individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and broader market context. Related Reading: The Great Bitcoin Handover: $8.2 Billion BTC Swamps Binance As Retail Momentum Fades Weekly Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages Signals Structural Weakness Bitcoin’s weekly structure has deteriorated materially over the past several sessions. After failing to sustain acceptance above the $90,000–$100,000 region, price rolled over and has now retraced toward the mid-$60,000 area. The latest weekly close near $66,000 places BTC decisively below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are beginning to slope downward. This shift in positioning is technically significant. During the 2024–2025 advance, these moving averages acted as dynamic support, consistently absorbing pullbacks and reinforcing trend continuation. Their loss now converts them into overhead resistance, limiting upside unless reclaimed with strong volume confirmation. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks Fhe Final Whale Floor In A 2018-Style Capitulation: What To Expect The 200-week moving average, currently tracking near the mid-$50,000 zone, remains the last major structural support on this timeframe. Historically, sustained closes below the 50-week average following a cycle peak have signaled prolonged corrective phases rather than shallow consolidations. Volume has expanded during the recent breakdown, suggesting distribution rather than simple low-liquidity drift. The sharp selloff from the $90,000 region to sub-$70,000 levels reflects decisive supply entering the market. For bulls to regain control, BTC would need to reclaim the $75,000–$80,000 range and reestablish higher weekly highs. Until then, the weekly trend favors caution, with momentum tilted toward continued consolidation or further downside exploration. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A sharp drop in XRP has rattled short-term holders, but some onlookers warn the sell-off may be setting a base for a much larger rebound. Reports say the token slid hard after peaking last year, and a mix of on-chain metrics and chart patterns has traders weighing whether this is panic or opportunity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Nears Century Mark, Saylor Hints Deep Losses And A Familiar Pattern According to price data, XRP fell from a high near $3.65 to roughly $1.38, a move that wiped out a large chunk of recent gains and produced a 60% pullback from the July peak. Traders watched as realized losses spiked, with roughly $1.90 billion recorded over one week — a level that matches past capitulation events. When big losses pile up in a short span, selling pressure can be exhausted and the market is often left with fewer weak hands. Reports note that the token is approaching a higher-time-frame demand area between $0.85 and $0.65, a zone that acted as resistance before the rally in late 2024. In prior cycles, that same area turned into a multi-year accumulation range where long-term buyers stepped in. $XRP Crashed 69% And Everyone Is Panicking: Last Time This Happened It Pumped 835%#XRP Is Trading Around $1.39 After Breaking Down From $2 Support Zone. Currently Retesting The HTF Demand Level Which Previously Acted As Multi-Year Accumulation Zone Upper Boundary. Already… pic.twitter.com/ZVKY1nwLD4 — Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 22, 2026 From Panic To Jubilation Analyst Crypto Patel has highlighted those historical signals on social feeds, arguing the setup looks familiar and may not be permanent panic. He warned that XRP has dropped 69% and panic is spreading, but the last time it fell this much, it surged 835%. Bitcoin Moves Provide Context Across the broader market, Bitcoin’s swings have been a backdrop to altcoin pain. Recent sessions saw BTC shift from the high $66,000s down toward the mid-$60,000s, and that kind of volatility tends to drag other coins along. When BTC retreats, altcoins often fall harder, and XRP was no exception. The interplay between Bitcoin’s price action and altcoin flows is a practical reminder that macro moves still matter even when token-specific stories dominate headlines. Reports have recorded quick selling from short-term holders after price broke below $2, a psychological level many treated as support. That drop accelerated the move to near $1.11 in early February, which represented close to 70% drawdown from the cycle top. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal That Once Preceded 114% Gains What Traders Are Watching Next A slice of the market exited positions in frustration. Those exits show up cleanly on-chain as realized losses, which can mark the final wave of sellers before stability returns. From a technical view, staying above the lower bound of the $0.65 to $0.85 band on longer timeframes would be taken as constructive by many. If that holds, a phased recovery could bring prior resistance levels back into play — around $2, then $3, and beyond. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price failed to stay above $66,000 and dipped further. BTC is now consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $66,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,000 support. The price is trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $63,500 and $63,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Support Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,000 support zone. There was a push below $65,000. The price even spiked below $64,000. A low was formed at $63,351, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $64,000, but the price is still well below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,652 swing high to the $63,351 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $64,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $64,600 level. The first key resistance is near the $65,250 level. A close above the $65,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $66,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,652 swing high to the $63,351 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $66,800 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next barrier for the bulls could be $67,500 and $67,700. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $65,250 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $64,000 level. The first major support is near the $63,500 level. The next support is now near the $63,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,650 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,000, followed by $63,500. Major Resistance Levels – $65,000 and $66,000.
Data shows cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges have racked up liquidations as Bitcoin and other assets have gone through a price retrace. Crypto Liquidations Have Crossed $500 Million During The Past Day According to data from CoinGlass, a massive amount of liquidations have piled up on digital asset derivatives platforms following the latest market volatility. “Liquidation” refers to the forceful closure that any open contract undergoes after it has incurred a loss of a specific degree (as defined by the exchange). Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles Fast, violent moves tend to catch a large number of contracts off guard at once, so mass liquidation events tend to accompany them. The same has been the case with the volatility shown by Bitcoin and the company during the past day. As the table below shows, about $507 million in derivatives contracts have been liquidated over the last 24 hours. $438 million or 86% of the liquidations involved long contracts. This overwhelming majority in the leverage flush from the bullish bets is naturally because of the fact that the sharpest move inside this window was one to the downside. Bitcoin went from $67,700 to a low of $64,300 within the matter of a few hours. As the market has rebounded since this plunge, some short investors have also been liquidated, with their 24-hour liquidation figure sitting at $69 million. In terms of the individual assets, Bitcoin was once again the biggest contributor to the derivatives flush, with $233 million in contracts involved. Below is a heatmap that shows how liquidations have looked for the other coins. On-chain analytics firm Santiment has made an X post discussing the volatility, noting that it has caused a drop in the Bitcoin Open Interest. This indicator measures the total amount of positions related to BTC (in USD) that are currently open on all derivatives exchanges. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest plunged to $19.5 billion following the event, which is about half the level that the metric was at during the January peak of $38.3 billion. The indicator’s decline signifies a mix of liquidations and investors choosing to pull back on risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money Exits: Large-Holder Supply Hits Lowest Since May 2025 In the same chart, Santiment has also attached the data for the Negative Sentiment, a metric that tracks the degree of bearish sentiment around BTC on the major social media platforms. This indicator has shot up alongside the price decline and hit a two-week high, implying a spike in FUD among retail investors. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,300, down nearly 5% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s recent wobble has traders on edge, but the picture is not all one-way. Reports note heavy losses for late buyers, and on-chain figures show real money changing hands as positions are forced closed. Markets moved fast; the mood did too. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal That Once Preceded 114% Gains Fear And Greed Plunges To Single Digits According to CoinGlass, more than 144,839 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with total liquidations of over $508 million and about 92% tied to long bets. Reports from Alternative.me put the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 5 out of 100 — a reading that has turned up only three times since 2018. That level screams panic. Yet panic often clears out the most fragile holders and leaves room for steadier hands to step in. Realized Losses And Capitulation Signals Based on reports from Glassnode, recent investors are still booking losses at a high rate — the seven-day moving average for net realized losses was close to $500 million per day. That kind of selling pressure looks brutal on a chart. At the same time, selling at scale can mark an end to a sharp phase of decline, because it reduces the number of people left to sell when prices fall further. Bitcoin Price Action In the middle of all this, price moves matter. Bitcoin rose to roughly $68,600 on Saturday, but it slid back and touched the mid-$64,000s after a wave of exits. Traders are watching a range that formed after the early-February drop to about $60,000. The coin remains roughly 48% below an October high of $126,000 and about 5.5% under the 2021 peak near $69,000. News tied to US-Iran tension and general risk-off trading pushed some traders toward safer assets, which added fuel to the pullback. Sharpe Ratio Hits Unusual Low Analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio at -38.4. That metric measures returns relative to risk; a number this low is rare. This is a phenomenal chart. It shows the Sharpe Ratio for #Bitcoin in the short term. The key takeaway: the Sharpe Ratio has dropped to -38.38, which historically has marked “Low Risk” accumulation zones. The red circles highlight every time the Sharpe Ratio dipped to similar… pic.twitter.com/Nwp7SkfVP4 — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 21, 2026 Historically, extreme negative readings have sometimes lined up with moments when buying risk felt lower, because potential downside had been squeezed out by big selloffs. That does not guarantee a rebound, but it changes how investors view the trade-off between reward and risk. Related Reading: Political Meme Coins Implode: TRUMP Down 92%, MELANIA Nearly Wiped Out Where This Could Lead Some technical watchers warn that more tests of support could happen if uncertainty continues. Others point to the combination of heavy liquidations, deep fear readings, and large realized losses as signals that a base might be forming. Pasts on-chain figures show that panic and steep losses often precede quieter periods where buyers return slowly. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook is a major talking point, with veteran trader Peter Brandt recently floating a bold timeline for when the leading cryptocurrency could hit $250,000. The comment came in response to a chart shared on X by NBA legend Scottie Pippen, who showed how Bitcoin’s current structure looks familiar. Brandt not only agreed with Pippen, he also attached a projection that points to a specific year for a when the Bitcoin price will eventually trade above $250,000. Power Law Projection Points To 2029 Breakout According to veteran financial analyst Peter Brandt, Bitcoin is on track to setting off to $250,000-plus by late 2029. He only noted this with a simple sentence, but the projection to $250,000 is visible in the weekly candlestick price chart he shared alongside his prediction. Related Reading: Don’t Fall For The Bitcoin Trap: Analyst Explains Why Recovery To $76,000 Is Not A Good Thing The chart shared by Brandt shows Bitcoin trading within a broad upward-sloping channel that has defined its macrostructure for over a decade. The lower boundary, highlighted in green, appears to act as a recurring support zone during major consolidations. The upper red band connects the different peaks over the years. The current structure is playing out in a way where Bitcoin has been trending downwards after a strong multi-year advance that peaked in late 2025. Brandt’s projection extends the channel forward into 2029, where the middle band of the channel intersects near the $250,000 price level. $250,000 is a recurring Bitcoin price target among crypto participants, although the predictions have different timelines as to when Bitcoin will reach this price level. For instance, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is also of the notion that Bitcoin will trade at $250,000 soon, although this came with a warning. Analysts at Galaxy Digital have also floated the same target, although on a faster timeline around 2027. That projection, however, came with expectations of an unstable 2026 before any strong rally. Scottie Pippen’s 2020 Comparison Brandt’s forecast was triggered by Scottie Pippen’s post comparing Bitcoin’s current setup to its 2020 structure. In Pippen’s side-by-side chart comparison, the left panel shows Bitcoin’s CME Futures in mid-2020 forming a base before launching into the rally that culminated in the 2021 highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Ready To Bounce Again? The Major Accumulation Trend You Should Be Aware Of The right panel, which shows current price action in 2026, depicts a similar consolidation pattern above a green support zone. The visual comparison suggests that Bitcoin is now in a comparable pre-breakout phase like it was in 2020. In 2020, Bitcoin consolidated for months before breaking into a parabolic move. As such, although the long-term view is bullish, there’s a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate around its current price level before going on an aggressive 2021-style rally. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating below $70,000. The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading at $66,150, having lost 1.8% of its value in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Michael Saylor’s quiet hint this weekend put a spotlight on a methodical habit that has quietly shaped corporate crypto moves for years. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal That Once Preceded 114% Gains Michael Saylor posted a chart with the caption “The Orange Century,” and through that single image he signaled what many traders already suspected: the company he chairs is poised to make another buy. Strategy has been buying Bitcoin in steady doses since 2020. Reports note the firm has completed 99 buys so far. That makes the next purchase the 100th. Short headline. Big milestone. The buy count matters because it shows a pattern more than it shows timing. Buy Pace And Signals The image Saylor shared on the X platform is the same type of chart the company has shown before when a purchase was near. Other market watchers read the post as a likely prelude to actual buy orders. The company has not issued a formal press release about a specific date. The Orange Century. pic.twitter.com/8zelTduTPC — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 22, 2026 Recent Activity And Holdings According to public records, the firm now holds about 717,131 BTC at an average cost near $76,027 per coin. Market prices have drifted lower from that average. Bitcoin was trading around $65,050 at the time of the reports. That gap has put the firm’s cost basis in the red on paper. Still, buying has continued; the company has added BTC for many consecutive weeks in 2026 and showed no obvious pause even as prices moved down. Shareholders And Market Reaction Reports note that since the initial stake was bought in August 2020, the firm’s stock has climbed sharply. Yahoo Finance data shows a rise from roughly $12.44 then to about $131.05 at the time this report was made, an increase of around 950%. That price swing has made the strategy attractive to some investors who wanted exposure to Bitcoin through a public stock. Others worry about concentration risk when a single asset so heavily shapes a company’s balance sheet. How This Fits Broader Trends Other firms have copied pieces of this playbook. Moving treasury cash into Bitcoin has become one option among several for companies that want to shield some value from inflation or to chase upside tied to crypto. Related Reading: Political Meme Coins Implode: TRUMP Down 92%, MELANIA Nearly Wiped Out That has had a ripple effect: when big public holders buy, it can shift short-term flows and signal confidence to certain corners of the market. At the same time, critics argue that using corporate coffers to buy a volatile asset brings fresh governance questions. The next move will be watched closely. If the 100th buy happens, it will be seen as a reaffirmation of a strategy that has been consistent for years. Observers will then parse whether the purchase is symbolic, tactical, or simply another step in a long, steady accumulation. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has increasingly moved in sync with the software and technology sector, and is reshaping its role in global finance. Rather than behaving like a traditional store of value or independent asset class, BTC has shown price patterns closely tied to technology-driven markets, particularly growth-oriented software companies and digital innovation stocks. This growing connection reflects BTC’s deep roots in technology and its dependence on market conditions that typically influence high-growth sectors and innovation cycles. How Market Liquidity Connects Bitcoin To Software Stocks According to crypto analyst Kevin, Bitcoin has been more tied to the software sector than any other market in recent years. The software underperformance has been caused by massive disruption from Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, and BTC has also experienced similar underperformance due to AI technology disruption throughout 2025 and the broader market cycle. Related Reading: Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says However, as BTC is no longer the hottest new tech in the block and a tighter for longer monetary policy is in place, it’s the perfect combo to explain crypto underperformance overall. The key question now is whether BTC can overcome this hurdle in the future. Kevin believes that BTC can overcome this hurdle, but it has to overcome real fundamental narrative challenges for the first time. The current daily chart structure for Bitcoin has been interpreted as a strong bullish setup. Market commentator known as Super฿ro on X has highlighted that it is always better for BTC to flush out the lower liquidity levels first, leaving the overhead liquidity intact, which will later serve as fuel for a potential short squeeze. Thus, BTC had the opportunity to move higher and take out the short positions, but instead left them untouched. Currently, BTC has flushed out almost all the leveraged longs below, which is a setup but not a guarantee. Technically, this pattern could also be viewed as a bear pennant breakdown, with a potential downside target below $50,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Drops To Deepest Level Since FTX Bottom Super฿ro is convinced that this move will prove too ambitious for the bears, as it would push the price into a major multi-year support zone. However, if BTC successfully holds its recent lows on a closing basis, the outlook could shift decisively bullish and open the door to a sharp recovery into the $70,000 range and potentially higher. BTC Flow From Spot To Futures Markets Explained The Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is approaching a golden cross with the 90-day moving average (90MA) line. A crypto investor and data analyst known as CW pointed out that the IFP indicator is based on BTC flowing from the spot market into the futures market. However, if this trend accelerates further, it could form a golden cross above the 90MA, then signal a bullish rally. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin futures positioning among non-commercial traders is swinging sharply toward net long exposure, a move technical analyst Tom McClellan (editor of The McClellan Market Report) says has arrived “with some urgency” in the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report and one that has coincided with notable market outcomes in prior, similarly extreme episodes. Sharing a chart of Bitcoin futures (price on a log scale) alongside non-commercial net positioning, McClellan argued that in Bitcoin’s case, large speculators effectively function as the “smart money” cohort, because the market lacks the typical commercial hedger presence seen in traditional commodity futures. “The non-commercial traders of Bitcoin futures are usually the smart money,” McClellan wrote. “This week’s COT Report shows that they are moving net long with some urgency. Look back at what the last two similar excursions led to. But remember, this is ‘a condition, not a signal’.” Why Non-Commercials Matter In Bitcoin Futures McClellan later expanded on how he frames the CFTC’s weekly report, which breaks futures positioning into commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables. In corn, for example, commercials might be producers or end users; in Bitcoin, he says that category is thin. “In Bitcoin, there are hardly any traders who qualify as Commercial traders,” McClellan wrote. “So in an unusual circumstance, the Non-commercial traders fill the role of being the smart money.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles That distinction matters because COT is not about absolute long or short interest, every futures contract has a long and a short by definition, but about who is on each side. “Every futures contract is simultaneously one long and one short position, held by different parties. So the number of longs will always equal the number of shorts,” he wrote. “What matters is who holds the positions.” McClellan also cautioned against importing equity-market intuition about short interest into futures positioning. “So a large short position in a stock represents potential energy which could get converted into price movements via short covering,” he wrote. “COT data don’t do that. They just represent expert opinion.” The core dispute in the X thread wasn’t whether COT can be useful, but how to interpret timing. Trader toni (@tonitrades_) agreed the dataset has value but questioned whether futures positioning simply follows spot momentum. “COT data has historically been a solid indicator, no argument there,” toni wrote. “But non-commercial positioning often lags spot market moves by weeks. By the time futures traders pile in, the initial momentum is usually priced in already.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Call On Ice: Fear Is Extreme, Whales Aren’t Buying McClellan pushed back on that sequencing. “I think you meant that their positioning PRECEDES price moves sometimes by weeks,” he replied, underscoring his view that positioning extremes can show up ahead of meaningful market moves, though not on a predictable schedule. That’s where the thread landed: with an emphasis on uncertainty. Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) summed it up succinctly: “Timing still uncertain.” McClellan agreed. “Exactly, hence my admonition.” In his longer explanation, McClellan reiterated that most weeks the COT report has no actionable message, but that extremes can be informative with a crucial caveat. “A lot of the time there is no useful message in the COT data for each futures contract,” he wrote. “But when an extreme develops like now in Bitcoin, then we can get useful information. But as with any overbought or oversold reading on any indicator, COT data only reflect a ‘condition’ not a signal. The data will not tell you when that condition is going to matter, only that it should matter, sometime.” At press time, BTC traded at $65,663. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,000 and dipped sharply. BTC is now consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $66,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,500 support. The price is trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $64,500 and $64,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dives Over 5% Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $67,200 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,500 support zone. There was a push below $66,000. The price even spiked below $65,000. There was also a break below a bullish trend line with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A low was formed at $64,203, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $64,500, but the price is still well below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,653 swing high to the $64,203 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $64,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $65,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $66,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,653 swing high to the $64,203 low. A close above the $66,400 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $67,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $67,600 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $68,000 and $68,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $66,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $64,400 level. The first major support is near the $64,200 level. The next support is now near the $63,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,850 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,500, followed by $64,200. Major Resistance Levels – $66,000 and $66,500.
As quantum computing inches closer to reality, nearly 7 million bitcoin, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million coins, are potentially at risk.