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Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, arguing that the current drawdown still fits the asset’s historic four-year cycle despite a more favorable regulatory backdrop in Washington. Speaking on the Thinking Crypto podcast from the Solana Policy Summit, the SkyBridge Capital founder framed the market weakness as a cyclical bear phase rather than a structural break. He said investors had expected a stronger policy-driven rally after the change in US administration, but that whales and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand. “I’m old school. I’ve been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin,” Scaramucci said. “You’ve just crossed the halfway mark of the halving and so you’re on your way to the back half of this thing. You typically don’t get any type of real recovery until the first quarter of next year.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally Scaramucci added that Bitcoin’s timeline may have been slightly accelerated by macro factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariff-related messaging and geopolitical conflict. Still, he said Bitcoin has remained “fairly sticky” during the war period referenced in the interview. “You probably won’t see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter,” he said, pointing to “October possibly November” as a more realistic window. Why Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Not Been Enough The comments address a central frustration across the crypto market: why prices have failed to respond more forcefully to a pro-crypto administration, institutional ETF access, and improving legislative momentum. According to Scaramucci, the answer lies partly in supply. ETF activity has brought new buyers into Bitcoin, including older investors using traditional brokerage channels, but that demand has met heavy distribution from whales and early holders. “You’re still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it’s just not enough,” he said. “You got whales that are selling into the — the OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. And so what they do is they fulfill the prophecy of the four-year cycle by acting on the four-year cycle and selling.” He said whales were “pumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000,” which in his view contributed to Bitcoin falling into the high $60,000s. Scaramucci also tied Bitcoin’s next phase of institutional adoption to US market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. He argued that the idea Bitcoin is “valueless” is now “completely off the table,” but said banks are unlikely to move aggressively without clearer rules. “If you don’t get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you’re not going to get the banks to really open up,” he said. He cited experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, while arguing that real adoption requires major money-center banks to offer custody, yield, and borrowing against Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, he said, investors will not see “real full-throated adoption.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High Scaramucci also criticized the political and lobbying dynamics around stablecoin yield and crypto legislation. He said banks are pushing back because of their entrenched market position, while warning that holding out for a perfect bill could delay progress. “I’m a little bit more practical. I probably would have tried to get something done and I would not make the perfect deal the enemy of progress,” he said. “The best example I can give you is the Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He did not want that to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to have it happen.” Bitcoin Reserve Debate Still Politicized On the question of whether the US government should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, Scaramucci said yes, but only if the issue can move beyond partisan framing. “It’s very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if it’s a partisan issue,” he said. “If we can get this to be a transformative post-partisan what’s right or wrong for the country, what’s right or wrong for the American taxpayer, then the answer is yes.” He said he would not aggressively push the issue before broader consensus forms, instead favoring an approach where government-held Bitcoin from legal actions is retained rather than sold. He also said he was unsure whether the US government had completed an audit of its Bitcoin holdings. At press time, BTC traded at $77,844. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a “phase of disbelief” rather than a clean bullish reset. That divergence matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, that kind of setup can cut both ways: it can signal fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if bearish positioning is forced to unwind. Darkfost pointed to the 30-day cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the market remains out of sync with price. “We’ve been hearing a lot about funding rates lately, as they remain negative even while Bitcoin continues to move higher,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Right On Schedule: Analyst Reveals When The Bull Run Will Begin “This chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30 day cumulative evolution of funding rates on Binance, making it easier to clearly identify when funding entered a sustained negative trend.” His comparison was to late 2022, when Bitcoin was beginning to emerge from the bear market. At that point, Binance funding rates kept falling and reached as low as -7% on a 30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator sits around -4.5%, which, in his view, shows how aggressively traders have continued betting against the move in recent months. Darkfost’s argument is not simply that funding is negative, but that the persistence of that negativity reflects a market still trying to fade price strength. “Each time such a strong consensus has formed, it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that was beginning to develop,” he said. “As I mentioned several days ago, the market has entered a phase of disbelief, where traders still prefer fighting the trend rather than following it.” Bitcoin Derivatives Market In A Regime Of Caution On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same backdrop from a more defensive angle. In his April 23 market note, he argued that Bitcoin’s derivatives structure is “rapidly losing its bullish structure” as the short-term futures premium over spot nearly disappears. The 7-day basis SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in just four days, while the funding rate 7DMA remained negative at -0.00945%. For Adler, the message is straightforward: the market is no longer willing to pay up for long leverage. “Basis 7D SMA has sharply compressed and is almost at zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has nearly vanished,” he wrote. “This is not just a local cooldown – it is nearly a complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the short-term derivatives structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High He made a similar point on funding. “What matters is not just the negative reading itself, but its persistence,” Adler said. “This is not a one-off spike or a panic anomaly within a single hour. This is a steady accumulation of bearish positioning, where the market continues to pay for short exposure.” Taken together, the two analysts are reading the same data through slightly different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive condition for the ongoing rally, especially if consensus remains heavily skewed against price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium and is shifting into a more cautious regime unless basis and funding recover. At press time, BTC traded at $77,836. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The question of whether the Bitcoin price has hit a final bottom remains a major topic of discussion, as analysts remain unconvinced that the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a definitive floor. A recent analysis by market expert Maxi Trades suggests Bitcoin could be positioning for another major correction, forecasting a 30% crash that could push the price to fresh lows near $50,000. The bearish outlook has added to the market’s growing uncertainty about Bitcoin’s price direction, especially after the cryptocurrency’s latest rebound above $78,000. Historical Patterns Signal Upcoming Bitcoin Price Crash In his BTC price analysis shared on X this week, Maxi Trades drew on historical data and recurring chart patterns to support his bearish outlook for Bitcoin and projected bottom target. The analyst noted that the Bitcoin price has been stuck within a defined range for more than two and a half months now. He pointed out that a decisive breakout, either to the upside or the downside, has historically followed such an extended consolidation.  Related Reading: Bears Are Fully In Control Of Bitcoin And It Will Crash Below $60,000, Here’s Why According to Maxi Trades, the last three times Bitcoin displayed a similar range-bound movement, it took roughly 64 to 114 days for a breakout to occur. His accompanying chart reflects this historical setup, showing that during the first prolonged consolidation, Bitcoin traded sideways for 64 days before surging by 14%.  The second instance saw the cryptocurrency remain range-bound for 114 days, followed by a decline of approximately 27%. In a third similar formation, Bitcoin consolidated for 77 days before recording a 33% price crash. Based on this recurring trend, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could be approaching another major volatility event, with downside risk still on the table once its current range-bound movement resolves. Analyst Sees Bitcoin’s True Bottom Around $50,000 In his post, Maxi Trades noted that despite Bitcoin remaining in a bear market for more than six months since its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000, its price action has yet to show any signs of a true bottom formation. Because of this, he argued that the market has likely not reached its final capitulation phase.  Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH As a result, the analyst said he is highly confident that BTC’s next breakout may be to the downside, warning of another major price crash before a true market bottom is established. He added that if the current cycle unfolds like previous range-bound periods, the market may still have time left before the anticipated breakout.  Maxi Traders further noted that if his bearish scenario plays out and Bitcoin breaks below its recent lows, then the cryptocurrency could experience a rapid correction toward $50,000, marking a decline of more than 36% from current levels above $78,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $78,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $78,550 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $77,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $77,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $77,200 and $77,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Bitcoin price found support near $75,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $76,500 and $77,500 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $79,000. A high was formed at $79,490, and the price started a minor downside correction. It declined below $78,000 and tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. However, the bulls were active above $77,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $77,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,550 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,000 level. A close above the $79,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,550 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. The next support is now near the $76,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,200, followed by $77,000. Major Resistance Levels – $78,550 and $79,000.

Bitcoin futures markets lit up within an hour of US President Donald Trump hinting that diplomatic talks with Iran could resume as early as Friday. Open interest on Binance climbed nearly 2%, while CME recorded a 0.5% rise, reflecting a quick surge in bullish bets from derivatives traders. Related Reading: A New Phase For XRP? Integrations Keep Rolling In Across The Ecosystem Derivatives Market Responds Fast Total Bitcoin futures open interest jumped over 8% in 24 hours, crossing $62 billion, according to data from CoinGlass. That kind of movement in the derivatives market signals traders are positioning for further upside, not just reacting to a short-term bounce. Bitcoin itself climbed more than 4% over the same period, pushing past $78,000 — a level that puts the $80K target back within reach after weeks of pressure. Price action followed in the wake of US equities indexes rebounding from their previous losses. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all climbed by about 1%, benefiting from the ceasefire extension as well as strong company earnings results. Risk assets across the board were bid up as investors responded to the softer tone coming out of Washington. Trump told the New York Post that a second round of talks was possible as soon as Friday — a comment that quickly circulated across financial markets. Pakistan has also backed the push, with mediators actively working to set up a new round of negotiations. The ceasefire between the US and Iran had already been extended by three to five days before these latest signals emerged. Iran’s Position Remains Unclear But the picture on Iran’s side is far from settled. According to the Tasnim news agency, Iran had no current plans to negotiate on Friday — a direct contradiction of Trump’s stated expectations. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been communicating directly, and a divide between IRGC generals and Iran’s civilian negotiators is adding to the uncertainty. Iranian forces also seized two cargo ships near the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the ceasefire extension was announced, a move that complicated the diplomatic mood. Trump’s negotiators, based on reports, are now unsure whether there are reliable partners on the Iranian side to move a deal forward. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert Bitcoin Volume Data Raises Caution Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume dropped 30% even as the price climbed. That gap between price action and volume is a familiar warning sign in crypto markets — it suggests the rally may lack the broad participation needed to hold higher levels. Despite the $80K target drawing attention again, thin volume means the move could reverse quickly if the geopolitical situation shifts. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and crypto have already proven that six figures are achievable, with price surging past $100,000 and extending to a peak of $126,198 in 2025. However, the pullback that followed has since dragged Bitcoin down to around $78,267. Yet, rather than signaling the end of the cycle, one expert argues that this downtrend is part of a broader structure that points to a return above $100,000. Bitcoin’s $100,000 Crypto Cycle Crypto expert @TheRealPlanC recently stated in a tweet that the rally which carried Bitcoin beyond $100,000 did not occur under favorable economic conditions. Instead, he explained that it developed during a contractionary business cycle, a period that has historically constrained risk assets. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook: Analyst Says These 4 Numbers Are Your Entire Week Even within that restrictive environment, Bitcoin advanced into six-figure territory, suggesting that underlying demand remained intact. As the expert notes, that strength was met with sustained selling. Long-term holders reduced exposure as prices climbed beyond $100,000, while traders guided by Bitcoin’s four-year cycle exited positions toward the latter part of 2025. The decline that followed was intense but not driven by market structure alone. A combination of disruptions, including an exchange-related incident, institutional trading concerns, and heightened global uncertainty, added further strain. Despite these pressures, Bitcoin’s drawdown settled at roughly 52% from peak to trough, a level that, in the analyst’s view, reflects a correction rather than a collapse. This sequence, as @TheRealPlanC frames it, recasts the $126,198 high. Instead of marking the end of the cycle, it begins to resemble the first peak in a market that has yet to fully play out. When Bitcoin Could Climb Back Above $100,000 With Bitcoin now trading well below its previous high, the focus shifts to timing its return above $100,000. The Crypto expert links this expectation to a shift in the broader economic backdrop. He points to recent data showing the business cycle moving above the neutral threshold for three consecutive months, a development that signals a transition toward expansion. This shift is significant because it contrasts with the restrictive conditions that defined the earlier rally, opening the door for renewed upside. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts XRP Price Will Hit $100 In 2026 If These Dominoes Fall He also highlights changing demand dynamics. Large-scale accumulation, led by corporate buyers such as Michael Saylor, is reportedly absorbing between 10,000 and 30,000 Bitcoin each week. In the analyst’s view, this steady demand adds a structural layer of support as the market stabilizes. Within this context, @TheRealPlanC interprets the decline from $126,198 to current levels near $78,267 as a mid-cycle reset rather than a prolonged downturn. Based on this framework, the analyst expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 as conditions improve. He ultimately places the next major peak in 2027, suggesting that a move back above six figures could occur before that point as momentum gradually rebuilds. This perspective positions the current phase as part of an extended cycle, where reclaiming $100,000 signals continuation rather than completion. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical juncture as it presses against its nearest resistance wall at $80,000, which, according to some analysts, if not cleared, may send BTC back below $70,000.   What’s happening under the surface is also getting more complicated, with CryptoQuant pointing to a key inflection point where two major groups of marginal buyers are effectively testing their own break-even prices at the same time. Why $80,000 Is The Decision Point In a recent CryptoQuant report, the focus was on exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and short-term whales—two cohorts that tend to influence price action when conditions become borderline.  The Realized Price of Bitcoin ETF investors was reported at about $76,4000 as of April 21. That cohort has been underwater since January 30 until April 23’s surge back above $77,000, meaning they had carried unrealized losses for nearly three months.  Related Reading: 4-Figure XRP: How High Will The Price Be If Ripple Captures 50% Of SWIFT? A similar dynamic is showing up with short-term holder whales. Their Realized Price sits at approximately $79,600, which is slightly above the spot price at the time of writing, meaning that they have been trading in loss territory since November 1.  CryptoQuant noted that With Bitcoin moving in a $76,000 to $80,000 range, both ETF-related demand and short-term whale positioning appear to be hovering near their respective “decision points.”  Two Scenarios For Bitcoin Ahead In this context, the key $80,000 level is not just a chart marker—it’s portrayed as the psychological and financial boundary between relief and renewed losses. Whether Bitcoin can withstand the sell pressure that can follow at these thresholds—especially if the market rejects the level—could shape the structure of BTC’s next directional move, potentially defining how the second quarter develops.  Related Reading: CEO Calls CLARITY Act ‘Horrible Bill,’ Warns Of Prolonged Crypto Bear Market Ahead Analyst Ash Crypto added a more direct two scenarios outlook tied to the $80,000 wall. In the first scenario, Bitcoin closes above $80,000 on a daily basis and confirms that this rally has real follow-through. If that occurs, Ash Crypto’s view is that BTC could then surge toward a target range of $86,000 to $90,000.  The second scenario is the opposite: if Bitcoin gets rejected near $80,000, the analyst expects a sharp pullback back into a $74,000 to $68,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst RWA Investor has predicted that Bitcoin will rally to $140,000 and XRP to $7, setting new all-time highs (ATHs) for these cryptos. The analyst also provided a timeline for when they will reach these targets and what will spark the parabolic rally.  Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Rally To $140,000 And XRP to $7 In an X post, RWA Investor predicted that Bitcoin would be trading at $140,000 in May and that XRP would hit $7. He claimed that this is not wishful thinking but a psychological perspective. The analyst explained that the transition from Wave 2 to Wave 3 is rapid and is intended to drive capital on the sidelines and all bears into the market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Power Laws Predicts When Price Will Hit $1,000,000 Meanwhile, the analyst indicated that the CLARITY Act and an interest rate cut will be the catalysts that spark this Bitcoin and XRP rally. He claimed that the crypto bill and an interest rate cut are just around the corner. However, it is worth noting that the crypto bill has yet to advance, with the Senate yet to set a markup date for the bill.  At the same time, there is still uncertainty about exactly when the Fed may lower rates, with the U.S.-Iran war raising inflation concerns. Market participants are currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed will hold rates steady throughout the year in a bid to bring inflation down to its 2% target.  As such, it is uncertain whether the CLARITY Act or an interest rate cut could spark this Bitcoin and XRP rally, since they are unlikely to happen anytime soon. However, these cryptos, alongside the broader crypto market, have rallied this week amid optimism that the U.S.-Iran war could end soon as both sides continue to negotiate. U.S. President Donald Trump also extended the ceasefire yesterday, signaling the U.S. willingness to end the war soon.  BTC Has Bottomed In an X post, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe opined that Bitcoin has bottomed, signaling that XRP and other altcoins may have also found a bottom. He noted that BTC’s fair value is still far away, even as the Nasdaq has made new ATHs, which is why the analyst is confident that this current rally may be sustained for a while.  Related Reading: $60,000 Is The Bottom: Bitcoin Analyst Predicts Lowest Level Before Run To $200,000 The analyst further remarked that, based on the statistical data, the only time the market has seen another low was due to the FTX collapse. He noted that there is no such case this time around and predicts that BTC will likely continue its uptrend towards $90,000, then consolidate there for a while. Michaël van de Poppe added that this is when altcoins will start to get some spotlight again. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby says traders relying on Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may be leaning on a framework that no longer fits the market. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural shifts in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity now matter more than the old halving-driven playbook. Bitcoin’s Old Cycle Playbook Is Breaking Down Crosby’s core claim is straightforward: Bitcoin may already be trading in a different regime. Pointing to the fact that more than 20 million BTC are now in circulation, he said over 95% of the total eventual supply has already been issued, reducing the relative shock value of each new halving. Historically, halvings cut Bitcoin’s inflation rate in half and helped shape a familiar pattern of post-halving rallies, then drawdowns and recovery into the next cycle. Crosby said that pattern may now be losing force. “Many people are looking towards the previous cycles as a potential for what Bitcoin will do this time,” he said. “We can’t bottom out anytime soon. We need to wait until at least a year has passed from that peak, because that’s what we’ve always done.” Crosby pushed back on that logic, adding that he has “concrete evidence” for why the old cycle should no longer be treated as the base case. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High Much of that evidence, in his view, comes from demand. Crosby highlighted the scale of accumulation now coming from large treasury buyers and spot Bitcoin ETFs, saying Strategy alone has been acquiring more than 1,000 BTC per day, or roughly two to three times Bitcoin’s daily inflation rate. He also pointed to a recent day in which spot ETFs bought nearly $750 million worth of Bitcoin. That kind of persistent demand, he argued, is materially different from the market structure seen in earlier cycles. Rather than anchoring on calendar-based cycle models or seasonality, Crosby said investors should watch liquidity and broader macro conditions. He cited a 96.26% long-term correlation between the S&P 500 and global M2 liquidity, along with a 93% correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P over 15 years on a monthly basis. Bitcoin itself, he said, shows an 85% correlation to global liquidity, reinforcing the idea that liquidity expansion and contraction remain the dominant force behind major moves. Crosby also challenged the usefulness of election-cycle seasonality. While Bitcoin’s midterm years have sometimes posted strong average returns, he noted that median returns are negative and that the sample size remains thin. Gold and equities, by contrast, do not show the same kind of clean political-cycle pattern. For Crosby, that makes seasonality a weak foundation for market calls. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Index Turns Neutral For First Time This Bear Market He also argued that Bitcoin looks different when measured against gold rather than the US dollar. On that basis, he said, Bitcoin may have topped in late 2024 and already spent more than a year in a relative bear phase, potentially bottoming around February 2026. That, he suggested, is another sign the classic four-year cycle has already begun to break down. The more actionable signals, Crosby said, are coming from on-chain and macro indicators. He pointed to Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed as tools that have historically flagged major tops and attractive accumulation zones, and said Bitcoin has recently re-entered an area that previously aligned with undervaluation. At the same time, he noted that US consumer sentiment in April 2026 fell to 47.6%, which he described as the lowest reading on record, while manufacturing expectations and liquidity conditions have started to improve. “At some point, it’s inevitable this four-year cycle is going to break,” Crosby said. “We are seeing fresh liquidity entering the system. We are seeing the S&P 500 rally. We are seeing more positivity in manufacturing outlooks, and we are seeing incredible negativity, not just in Bitcoin, but in sentiment across equity markets as well.” His conclusion was not that risk has disappeared. It was that the market may no longer reward waiting for an “arbitrary date on a calendar.” If Crosby is right, the next big Bitcoin move will be shaped less by inherited cycle lore and more by the harder forces of liquidity, positioning and sustained institutional demand. At press time, BTC traded at $78,144. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Over the years, Bitcoin has maintained a near-consistent bull cycle pattern, usually starting and ending in a similar number of days. As a result, using the previous cycle pattern has become a popular way to try to predict when the next bull market will start and when the next bear market will begin. One of the patterns that many have followed to try to predict the next bull run is the number of days between each cycle, and one analyst is using it to predict the next move. The 1,065-Day Rule That Predicts The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Crypto analyst @0xbeehive took to the X (formerly Twitter) platform to explain a trend that has repeated over the last two cycles and could repeat again this time. This trend comes up with the number of days that go by between each bull market and when the next bear market begins. Related Reading: ‘The Short Version For Why I Hold XRP Through Everything’; Analyst Reveals The crypto analyst goes as far back as the 2018-2021 market cycle, which was one of the most important bull runs in the history of Bitcoin. Apparently, the bear market had run for a total of 365 days, so one year, before it eventually bottomed and began the next cycle move. This bull run would last for 1,066 days before topping. The result of this bull run was a massive rally that saw the Bitcoin price go from below $5,000 in 2020 to $69,000 before topping in 2021. This shows that this trend is powerful, and if the Bitcoin price does stick to it, then it could be a major run for it. Next on the list is the 2022-2025 bull run that saw another major Bitcoin price rally. The same trend repeated as the analyst shows that the Bitcoin price spent 365 days in the bear market before bottoming. Then, the bull market would resume and run for a similar 1,065 days, leading to an over 10x return, with the price going from $16,000 in 2022 and topping at $126,000 in 2025. Related Reading: Remember Arbitrum? This Analyst Just Predicted That A 7,400% Rally Is Coming This time around, the crypto analyst has highlighted that the same trend could be playing out once again. Currently, the bear cycle is still running, but it still has some ways to go before it’s completed. According to the analyst’s chart, the bear market will bottom in the last quarter of 2026, reaching somewhere around $47,000 in the process. As always, the crypto analyst expects a bull run that will last for another 1,065 days, but with diminishing returns as seen over the last few cycles. In this case, it would see the Bitcoin price cross $200,000, which would be an over 5x return for the digital asset. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows a large amount of Bitcoin short positions have been liquidated following the cryptocurrency’s surge to the $79,000 level. Bitcoin Has Surpassed $79,000 For The First Time Since Early February Bitcoin has seen a continuation of its recent bullish momentum during the past day as its price has hit the $79,300 level after a jump of nearly 5%. The below chart shows how the recent trajectory of the cryptocurrency has looked. Bitcoin also made an attempt at recovery last week, but that push ended up fizzling out as the asset approached the $78,000 level. This new surge has taken the cryptocurrency beyond this mark, to levels not seen since the first few days of February. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees First SuperTrend Bullish Flip In Over A Year Since the rally has been sharp, it has unleashed a wave of chaos over on the derivatives side of the sector. A Large Amount Of BTC Liquidations Have Piled Up On Exchanges According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has seen a notable amount of liquidations following the volatility of the last 24 hours. “Liquidation” here refers to the forceful closure that any open contract undergoes after it has amassed losses of a certain degree. Below is a heatmap that shows how daily liquidations have compared between the various assets in the sector. It would appear that Bitcoin has been the number one contributor of liquidations in the market like usual, with more than $222 million in positions related to the asset getting flushed during the past day. About $205 million of these positions were short ones, meaning that bearish bets made up for an extreme majority of the liquidations. Shorts being the most heavily affected side is naturally down to the fact that the cryptocurrency has seen a sharp surge inside this window. Ethereum, which has seen the second-largest derivatives flush, also saw the shorts make up for $99 million of its $115 million in total liquidations. In total, the digital asset sector as a whole has witnessed nearly $449 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. From the table, it’s apparent that $365 million or over 80% of these liquidations involved short positions, reinforcing the bullish wave that the sector as a whole has seen in this period. A mass liquidation event like today’s is popularly known as a squeeze. Since the latest event has involved mostly shorts, it would be called a short squeeze. Generally, these events kickstart after a sharp swing in the price unleashes an initial wave of liquidations. This flush then feeds back into the move, which causes even more liquidations in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Fading? Sentiment Hits Highest Since Mid-January In the cryptocurrency sector, these events aren’t exactly a rare sight due to the volatility that coins tend to see on the regular and leverage use being widespread among derivatives traders. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed higher on Wednesday, extending its recovery rally to levels not seen since late January. The price rose to just under 5% above the $79,000 mark after President Trump announced he would extend a ceasefire with Iran.  Can Bitcoin Sustain The Rally?  Market analysts say attention is shifting quickly from the breakout itself to the next set of hurdles higher up the chart. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said he believes the $75,000 to $86,000 zone does not look “saturated” with heavy resistance.  In his view, if there are no major negative developments, Bitcoin could maintain upward momentum. He also flagged $86,000 as a critical point, though, because the 200-day moving average (MA) is expected to sit near that level and lines up with an important pivot area.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom At $63,000? Grayscale Research Flags Feb. 5 As This Cycle’s Low Others emphasized that near-term support has been holding up, which could help Bitcoin keep pressing higher. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said the $75,000 level should act as solid support.  She added that a clean move above $80,000 would likely open the door to “significant” further upside, suggesting traders are watching for confirmation rather than just a quick spike. As Bitcoin climbs, sentiment will likely depend on whether the current strength can continue. Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said the key question going forward is whether the breakout can be sustained and translated into new momentum.  He pointed to a mix of supportive conditions, including relative stability in macro factors, gradual improvement in institutional flows, and progress on regulatory clarity.  At the same time, he warned that the market still has to deal with headline risk—especially from global geopolitics—as well as shifts in broader risk appetite that can quickly change how investors respond to crypto news. 8% Pause Could Come Before The Real Push Market expert Ali Martinez also weighed on the recent surge, noting that Bitcoin is forming a bullish reversal pattern, currently developing a Morning Star candlestick setup on the monthly chart.  This is described as a three-day sequence often interpreted as a signal that sellers may be exhausted and that buyers are regaining control. Even so, Martinez cautioned that strong signals don’t always produce an immediate straight-line rally.  Related Reading: XRP Indicator Turns Bullish Again After 3 Months: What’s The Next Price Target? According to his read of the data, Bitcoin often pauses briefly after the move—typically around “an 8% breather” on average—before the bigger continuation leg begins. This implies that BTC could retrace back to $72,000 before moving higher.  Taken together, the next move may depend on whether BTC can hold above established support levels like $75,000, sustain the push through key thresholds such as $80,000, and avoid major negative shocks as geopolitics and risk sentiment remain active variables for markets. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the cost basis of the Bitcoin short-term holders is located at $80,700, a level that could come into focus after the latest rally. Bitcoin Is Nearing The Short-Term Holder Realized Price In a new post on X, cycle analyst Root has shared the latest data for the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition level of investors on the Bitcoin network. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees First SuperTrend Bullish Flip In Over A Year When the value of the cryptocurrency is above this indicator, it means the BTC holders as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset trading below the metric suggests the dominance of loss on the network. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific portion of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price broke under the STH Realized Price during the price drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, the cryptocurrency has remained trapped below the line. As BTC’s drawdown has played out, the STH cost basis itself has also gone down. The reason behind this naturally lies in the fact that coins have been getting involved in trading at the lower post-crash prices, thus decreasing the average acquisition mark of the new investors. Today, the STH Realized Price is sitting at $80,700. Following BTC’s latest price rally, the cryptocurrency isn’t too far from hitting this level, implying that if the bullish winds continue, a retest of it could end up taking place. In the past, the indicator has often held relevance for Bitcoin as a support or resistance level. The reason behind this lies in the fact that the STHs represent the low-conviction side of the market, who tend to easily show reaction to price movements; a retest of their cost basis is naturally an event that causes members of the cohort to make some moves on the network. From the chart, it’s visible that the price rally back in January topped out near the STH Realized Price. This suggests that the cohort looked at the recovery surge as an opportunity to exit at their break-even mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Fading? Sentiment Hits Highest Since Mid-January If Bitcoin attempts another retest of the level in the near future, it will be interesting to see how the market will react this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has hit the $78,200 level following its latest price surge. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $77,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $79,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $76,500 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $78,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $77,150 and $76,650 levels. Bitcoin Price Regains Traction Bitcoin price found support near $74,850 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $75,500 and $77,200 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $78,500. A high was formed at $79,490, and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $77,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,500 level. There is also a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $78,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $79,200 level. A close above the $79,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $77,700 level. The first major support is near the $77,150 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. The next support is now near the $76,650 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,700, followed by $77,150. Major Resistance Levels – $78,500 and $79,500.

Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of a fresh bullish rebuild, according to a new morning brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., who said a rising Bitcoin Positioning Index alongside a sharp increase in futures open interest points to new risk-taking rather than a short-covering bounce. For traders watching whether the recent recovery has structural backing, that distinction matters. In Adler’s framework, the key signal is the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Positioning Index, which has climbed to 4.5, its highest reading in four months. The daily index itself rose to 40.1, while Bitcoin futures open interest measured over a 30-day change increased 14.5%, one of the strongest readings in the last 120 days. Bitcoin Futures Show New Risk-On Setup Taken together, Adler argues, those figures suggest the market is not merely squeezing out stale bearish bets. It is adding fresh exposure. He described the change as a notable turn from the setup seen earlier this year. In February, the SMA-30d bottomed at -10.9 as Bitcoin fell below $63,000. Since then, the indicator has recovered by more than 15 points, moving from what Adler framed as a damaged positioning structure into one that is improving steadily rather than spiking and fading. Related Reading: Anthony Scaramucci Puts Bitcoin Market Cap At $21 Trillion, So How Much Will 1 BTC Be? The report places emphasis on the combination of signals. Adler wrote that if the Positioning SMA-30d rises while open interest falls, the market is more likely clearing out old positions. If both rise together, by contrast, it suggests new capital and new leverage are entering the trade. That is, in his view, what the market is showing now. “What we are seeing now is exactly the second scenario,” Adler wrote. “OI 30D Change % stands at +14.5%. This is one of the two strongest readings over the last 120 days. Moreover, 23 out of the last 30 days closed with positive OI. This is a sustained upward leverage rebuild.” That point goes to the heart of the report. A bullish price move driven by position unwinds can be violent but short-lived. A move supported by rising open interest and improving directional positioning tends to carry a different message: participants are putting on new risk, and doing so with enough consistency to shift the broader derivatives structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally May Be A Trap As Whales Sell Into Strength Adler also contrasted the current setup with January, when the daily Positioning Index briefly surged but failed to translate into a durable trend. “In January, the daily Positioning Index also briefly surged above +20 and +30, but the structure deflated quickly and OI did not provide the same confirmation,” he wrote. “The current setup is much stronger: the smoothed SMA-30d trend is moving higher, and OI is simultaneously confirming an inflow of new leverage. This is not a single impulse — it is a coordinated move across two metrics.” That does not make the setup risk-free. The report is clear about where the structure would begin to break down. The first warning sign, Adler said, would be open interest rolling back below zero on a 30-day basis, which would imply renewed deleveraging. A second deterioration signal would be the SMA-30d reversing lower and slipping back below zero, turning what now looks like a sustained build into a failed spike. For now, Adler’s base case remains constructive as long as both conditions hold: positive OI and a rising positioning average. The larger implication is that Bitcoin’s recent recovery, at least in the futures market, is being accompanied by a broader willingness to re-engage with leverage. At press time, BTC traded at $78,620. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A crypto analyst has presented a new analysis, forecasting Bitcoin’s (BTC) next all-time high and potential market bottom. According to the analyst, BTC’s long-term price outlook could depend heavily on where its current market bottom forms. The analysis draws on historical cycle patterns and bear markets that preceded BTC’s explosive upward rallies. Based on these patterns, the expert projects that if BTC has found a bottom near $60,000, then the next likely top could be around $200,000.  Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Points To Final Market Bottom Crypto market expert Ardi has shared a new outlook on X, examining Bitcoin’s long-term cycle behavior and the implications of a possible market bottom. He noted that over the last four market cycles, Bitcoin’s bottom-to-top expansion has steadily compressed, with each cycle delivering only about 40%-50% of the upside seen in the previous one.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell For added emphasis, he explained that if the last cycle recorded a roughly 7-8x upside off the price bottom, then the next market cycle could statistically see a 3-4x upside, based on his 40-50% theory. This pattern suggests a maturing market with gradually declining exponential returns as adoption and market size increase.  Mathematically, Ardi presents his predictive model for Bitcoin’s cycle bottom and peak as: Next cycle top ≈ this cycle bottom x (previous multiple x k) The previous multiple is estimated at 7-8x from the 2022 bear market lows to the 2025 peak, while the k factor represents a historical diminishing factor of 0.4-0.5 derived from earlier Bitcoin cycles. Based on this framework, Ardi explained that if $60,000 is Bitcoin’s official bottom this cycle, then this level could serve as a key reference point for mapping the next phase of market development and potential bullish structure.     Notably, BTC crashed to $60,000 earlier in February 2026 after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran that same month, causing oil prices to skyrocket. This was the first time BTC reached this level after hitting an ATH above $126,000 in October 2025, although the cryptocurrency had been in a downtrend since that peak. BTC Cycle Model Projects $200,000 ATH Using the mathematical model, Ardi outlined that a $60,000 price floor would place Bitcoin’s next cycle base-case peak at $190,000 to $200,000. This zone is presented as the analyst’s expected outcome under normal diminishing returns conditions. The projection also includes a stronger extension phase, during which euphoric market momentum could push Bitcoin to $240,000, marking its true supercycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could See Another Crash, But What Is The Long-Term Prognosis? On the other hand, if the market bottom forms closer to $50,000, the cycle model will adjust lower, placing BTC’s base case peak near $160,000. Meanwhile, euphoric momentum could extend BTC toward the $200,000 region. Ardi emphasized that as long as the broader cycle structure remains intact, these projected ranges will continue to define where BTC’s next major bull rally could conclude. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a bear market despite its recent price rally, warning that the cryptocurrency could be headed for a deeper correction below $60,000. The call comes amid repeated failed breakouts and weakening momentum, raising doubts about any near-term recovery. According to the analyst, the current price structure suggests bears remain firmly in control, with downside risks continuing to build.  Why Bitcoin Is Still Bearish Despite Recent Rebounds A technical analyst known as JDK Analysis on X has shared fresh insights into Bitcoin’s current price action and potential next moves. In his post, he stated that Bitcoin’s recent price rally above $75,000 marked its fourth fakeout. He argued that, rather than a sustained price recovery, the latest upward moves may signal weakness, reinforcing his base case that BTC is currently in a short-term reaccumulation phase within a broader bear market. Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH JDK Analysis noted that the current re-accumulation phase lacked the key signals typically seen at true market bottoms, which often precede a sustained price reversal. As a result, he suggests that any near-term upside will likely be limited until a final price floor is reached.  The analyst explained that strong market bottoms do not emerge suddenly. Instead, they form after an extended downtrend with multiple processes involved. He stated that large-scale investors cannot simply “buy the bottom” like most retail traders because their investments are substantial enough to move the market and influence prices. He added that buying only occurs when enough traders are willing to sell coins, making it even harder for big players to enter positions. If they decide to place large buy orders even when there are not enough sellers available, they could end up pushing prices higher and buying at even worse levels.  To address this, JDK Analysis noted that most large players typically seek out liquidity by targeting areas with clustered orders. He said that it also helps when many traders are caught on the wrong side of the market, as their positions provide easy exit liquidity for whales. He called this process liquidity engineering, noting that it explains why Bitcoin’s price often moves up and down within a range, appearing as though it is recovering.  The analyst added that the same process also applies when Bitcoin experiences sudden drops. During sharp moves, traders often panic and sell, leading to downside fakeouts in which prices briefly fall before reversing or stabilizing. Overall, JDK Analysis remains firm in his view that the market is not in a recovery stage. Instead, he argues that bears are still largely in control, with no confirmed bottom in place and the possibility of another major price crash still ahead.  BTC Faces Possible Crash Below $60,000 While he maintains that the market is still bearish, JDK Analysis has explained what a true bottom should look like. He stated that a real bottom forms after several failed attempts to push prices lower. He emphasized that during repeated downside moves, trading volume typically declines, signaling that selling pressure is fading as sellers become exhausted. Once this happens, the market begins to shift before a fresh bullish trend begins. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook: Analyst Says These 4 Numbers Are Your Entire Week However, the analyst argues that current market conditions are showing opposite behavior. Instead of exhaustion, prices continue to test the upper range before getting rejected. He also noted that BTC’s overall supply appears to be dominating demand, with each upward push accompanied by declining trading volume. The analyst views this as a major bearish signal. His chart shows that once Bitcoin breaks further below $75,000, the cryptocurrency could be heading toward its next crash level around $59,000. If this support fails, the analyst predicts an even deeper correction below $56,000, possibly marking its final bottom. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is back in a place where bold upside calls are starting to circulate again, and while short-term sentiment is still mixed, one analyst believes the cryptocurrency is setting up for a powerful move that sends the price action all the way to $200,000. The call is built around a long-term cycle structure on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart that treats Bitcoin’s recent price action as part of a larger repeating pattern. The Monthly Chart Case For $200,000 The chart Bitcoin Teddy shared is a monthly Bitcoin chart that maps out three major cycle phases using large green expansion boxes and blue-circled buy zones. These buy zones are situated around a curved support line that connects previous lows. Related Reading: Why You Should Be Paying Attention To The Bitcoin Monthly MACD The first buy zone appeared in 2019, ahead of the move that eventually carried Bitcoin above $69,000. The second buy zone was in late 2022, just before the rally that eventually pushed Bitcoin’s price action to $126,000 in October 2025. The third is the current setup, labeled as a 2026 buy zone near the long-term curved support line, with the projected next peak sitting at $200,000. Each rally is gradually shrinking in percentage terms. The move from 2019 to 2021’s peak was over 2,000%. The move from 2022 to the current peak was over 700%. The expected move from the current accumulation zone to $200,000 is around 233%. When The Chart Says To Buy The “when to buy” part of the forecast is just as important as the $200,000 target itself. Bitcoin Teddy’s chart points to the current region, which is the zone between the long-term curve and the lower part of the latest green box, as the preferred entry window. That area sits around the $60,000s up into the $70,000s, with the blue circle placed close to the latest corrective low in February. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Bitcoin has since rebounded from that February low, and the broader market has started to stabilize, with Spot ETF inflows returning to more consistent levels. Despite that recovery, price action has not fully broken away from the highlighted accumulation band. It is still within the same broader zone identified on the chart, meaning the setup to the $200,000 projection is still technically in place. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,880. Therefore, the path from current levels to $200,000 would require approximately a 156% gain from around $77,000, a move that several institutional analysts believe is achievable within the current cycle window.  Goldman Sachs filed for its first Bitcoin ETF product shortly after Morgan Stanley launched its own spot Bitcoin ETF, showing that large financial firms are still pushing deeper into Bitcoin-linked products. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

While the market still remembers the sharp drops of the past, Bitcoin held its ground at $75,000 this week. This price remains well below the all-time peak of $126,000, but the mood among traders is changing. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Miner Sell-Off Casts Shadow Over Ceasefire-Fueled Rebound Reports show that many investors are watching two different forces at once. They see the potential for new highs while fearing a sudden slide. Despite that tension, the market recently pushed toward $77,000 before some traders decided to sell and take their profits. Since the news of Morgan Stanley’s $138 million move into its Bitcoin-tracking fund, the price has climbed even higher, trading at a little past $80,000 at the time of writing. Heightened Level Of Trust In Bitcoin The bank’s latest move shows a significant level of trust from one of the biggest names in finance. Data shows the fund pulled in more than $100 million in assets during its very first week of operation. It is an affordable way for people to get exposure to the coin without holding it directly. According to reports, this isn’t just a one-time event. It is part of a larger trend where big banks are fixing their old systems to work with new technology. The focus is shifting toward on-chain finance. This means that instead of just betting on price changes, banks are looking at how to use the underlying blockchain as a tool for daily business. Reports indicate that Morgan Stanley is already testing these ideas through a partnership. This setup lets a small group of clients trade crypto directly within a system that stays under tight control. The goal is to move in small steps rather than taking huge risks all at once. Institutional Buying Powers A Market Rebound The return of these large organizations follows a difficult start to 2026. For months, prices had been falling, but that trend seems to be over for now. Reports note that US adoption is climbing at a fast pace. Related Reading: Strategy Raises $1.76B War Chest As Saylor Signals Bigger Bitcoin Buy Even though other coins like Ethereum exist, most big investors still view Bitcoin as their first choice. They tend to stick around for a long time once they commit their capital. They are not looking for quick wins; they are making large financial commitments that could last for years. The current stability is built on this renewed belief from the professional sector. While individual traders might jump in and out of the market, the big players provide a floor for the price. They are treating the technology as a business asset that has a permanent place in their portfolios. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Institutional investors poured nearly $1 billion into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week, signaling a massive appetite for the asset even as prices fluctuated. Data shows that 13 different US spot ETFs brought in roughly $996 million over those five days. This trend did not slow down as the new week began. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Miner Sell-Off Casts Shadow Over Ceasefire-Fueled Rebound On Monday alone, these investment funds saw another $238 million in net inflows. This steady stream of capital is a primary factor behind the current market recovery. Institutional Backing Drives Price Recovery The influx of cash is happening at a time when the available supply of Bitcoin is tightening. When large funds buy up coins to back their ETFs, they remove those coins from the open market. This can create a supply shock if demand continues to rise. Analysts expect the momentum from these investment funds to carry through the rest of the week. It should be noted that the current market environment supports this trend since the volatility in other sectors is declining. For example, the VIX, measuring volatility in stocks, is decreasing, while gold has demonstrated less volatile behavior recently. The cryptocurrency recovered to the $76,000 region on Monday after the sharp selloff observed during the previous weekend. The crypto was trading at a level of $78,200 at one point during the weekend and then dropped by 5% to hit a low of $73,400. Although the decline occurred, the crypto maintained its main support levels. The move is interpreted as another risk-off move. Now, the market is shifting gears into a “risk-on” environment. Reports disclose that the alpha coin is now forming a pattern of higher lows and higher highs on shorter timeframes. I don’t see a reason why markets shouldn’t go higher. I’ve mentioned this before, but the risk-off weekend correction is quite normal for #Bitcoin. It’s a Monday, nothing bad has happened, so the risk-on appetite comes back. Great bounce upwards, and lower timeframe uptrend… pic.twitter.com/75VrkzFMRc — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 20, 2026 The $88k Resistance Zone The next major hurdle for the market is a resistance band that sits between $85,000 and $88,000, according to crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe. Reaching the top end of that range would require a 15% increase from recent prices. If Bitcoin can break through that ceiling, it may set the stage for a much larger move. Some market experts believe the price could hit $100,000 by May. Related Reading: Strategy Raises $1.76B War Chest As Saylor Signals Bigger Bitcoin Buy This outlook depends on the world remaining relatively stable. Large geopolitical disruptions could still derail the current upward pressure. Technical indicators show the rebound from $73,000 was clean and decisive. This level was a crucial area for the market to hold to keep the positive trend alive. Without any major negative news on the horizon, the path toward $88,000 appears wide open. Most observers are keeping a close eye on whether the current buying pace can be sustained. If the ETF inflows remain strong, the end of April could be very active for traders. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has climbed back to 50, moving out of outright bearish territory and into what CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno described as a neutral zone. In a post on X, the CryptoQuant head of research wrote: “First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50). In March 2022, the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week, and then the price resumed its decline.” What This Means For Bitcoin Price That comparison is doing most of the work here. Moreno is not presenting the move to 50 as confirmation of a durable trend reversal. He is pointing instead to a prior episode in which conditions improved just enough to leave bearish territory, only for the market to roll over again soon after. The implication is straightforward: neutral is better than bearish, but it is not the same thing as bullish. The CryptoQuant chart helps frame that shift. The index spent much of mid-2025 in stronger territory, with readings frequently above 60 while bitcoin traded broadly in a higher range and pushed above $120,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally May Be A Trap As Whales Sell Into Strength That backdrop changed sharply later in the year. As price weakened into late 2025 and early 2026, the Bull Score Index deteriorated as well, at times dropping toward the bottom of the scale as bitcoin sank into the low-$60,000s. What stands out now is the recovery in the indicator from those depressed readings. By April, the Bull Score had risen back to roughly 50 as bitcoin recovered toward the mid-$70,000 range. In other words, market conditions as measured by CryptoQuant are no longer flashing the same degree of weakness they were earlier in the downturn. But they have not yet crossed into the zone the chart labels as bullish, which begins at 60. Related Reading: Anthony Scaramucci Puts Bitcoin Market Cap At $21 Trillion, So How Much Will 1 BTC Be? That leaves the signal in an awkward but important middle ground. A move from bearish to neutral can indicate that selling pressure is easing and that some underlying conditions are improving. It can also mark nothing more than a pause inside a broader downtrend. Moreno’s 2022 analogy suggests he sees that ambiguity as the key point, rather than the headline value of 50 on its own. The Bull Score Index is one of CryptoQuant’s composite Bitcoin market gauges. Rather than tracking a single datapoint, it measures the share of bullish readings across 10 key indicators tied to network activity, investor profitability, liquidity, and other fundamental and technical conditions. That is why the move to 50 matters: on CryptoQuant’s framework, it suggests that roughly half of the indicators that define a bullish regime have turned constructive again, even if the market is still short of the 60-plus zone the firm treats as outright bullish. At press time, BTC traded at $78,057. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A crypto analyst, Zynx, on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, has shown where the Bitcoin price might be headed over the next few years using the Bitcoin Power Law. This law shows a steady upward trajectory, putting into perspective the performance of Bitcoin over a long period of time. Using this Power Law, the crypto analyst lays out the first prediction, and that is that the Bitcoin price will end up hitting $145,000 in 2026. This would mean that the digital asset would complete an over 100% rally in order to hit this target, suggesting that there is another bull run coming this year. As the years start to stretch out, so does the Bitcoin prediction go higher. For the year 2027, the analyst puts the price as high as $200,000, an almost 3x from the current levels at the time of writing. Then the next year, 2028, the Bitcoin price is expected to hit $265,000. Related Reading: Remember Arbitrum? This Analyst Just Predicted That A 7,400% Rally Is Coming The predictions do not end there, spreading out farther and the price rising drastically with each year. By 2029, the Bitcoin price is expected to have hit $350,000, and still, this is not the highest. This is because the next year of 2030 shows the Bitcoin price then touching $470,000. The last of the predictions shows when the Bitcoin price will hit $1,000,000 per coin and this is expected to happen in 2030. This would mean that the bitcoin price would rise by more than 1,400% in the next five years to rally above $1,000,000. One interesting thing about the analyst’s prediction is the fact that it expects the Bitcoin price to continue to rise year over year. This would leave little to no room for bear markets, with what could be described as a perpetual bull run if the price is to hit this target. Every so often I like to check what the Bitcoin Power Law predicts. Mid-year projections: 2026: ~$145,000 2027: ~$200,000 2028: ~$265,000 2029: ~$350,000 2030: ~$470,000 2033: ~$1,000,000 Current price = $75,200 We are in historically undervalued territory. ₿ullish. — Zynx (@ZynxBTC) April 20, 2026 The Bitcoin Power Law Explained The Bitcoin power law usually focuses on the long-term outlook of the cryptocurrency, often taking a more bullish route due to the length of time that it predicts over. Mostly, it uses historical performances to predict how high the Bitcoin price could go. It then plots this on a ‘Power line’ that shows the advancement of Bitcoin through the years. Related Reading: Analyst Says Ethereum Just Confirmed A ‘Turtle Soup’, Here’s What It Means Over time, the Power Law has pointed to the Bitcoin price crossing $100,000, which it eventually did, and as the price has risen, so has the Power Law forecasts. One website, Bitbo, plots the Power Law starting from 2011, and going by the trajectory, the price is much higher than it is now. This movement suggests that while the Bitcoin price may fluctuate in the short term, it continues to actually maintain an upward trajectory in the long term. It also means that the ‘outrageous’ predictions that analysts make all the time for the digital asset may very well be a matter of when, and not if. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that began in October last year, according to new research from Grayscale. The firm points to Feb. 5—when BTC traded around $63,000—as a “durable” market bottom.  Potential Start Of A New Bitcoin Bull Market In Grayscale’s view, the rebound since that low has been meaningful. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed at roughly $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching about $76,000.  That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which matters because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a drop. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control. Related Reading: A Stark XRP Price Call: Why One Analyst Says It Could Be Under $1 By 2031 For Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price is about $74,000. That implies many newer buyers are already back near break-even.  If BTC continues rising in the days ahead, more recent participants could shift into positive profit and loss, which Grayscale treats as a potential early sign of a bull-market transition. In that framework, the Feb. 5 low is not just a statistical low—it’s presented as the point where the market may have stabilized enough to start a new upward phase. $78,000 Still Holds The Key Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin whales reportedly added about 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation pace since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months. Glassnode data also indicates that upward momentum has cooled somewhat. Even so, it still points to strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the odds of a sharp slide. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has risen, suggesting ongoing participation rather than a sudden exit. In the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, Glassnode points to several indicators improving, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside netflow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and stronger investor interest.  Related Reading: AAVE Price Plummets By 26%: $9 Billion Net Outflows Traced To Kelp DAO Hack Combined with higher overall trading activity, the picture is presented as a cautiously optimistic shift in sentiment, especially for investors engaging with Bitcoin through regulated channels and traditional custody. Even with these supportive signs, Bitcoin isn’t free of near-term challenges. BTC has slightly retraced toward the $75,800 area at the time of writing, and it remains unclear whether it can break the closest resistance level near $78,000.  That price point has capped stronger upside moves toward $80,000 since Jan. 30. The overall takeaway is that the market may be setting up for a larger move, but the next step likely depends on whether resistance can be cleared. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin miners dumped a record 40,000 BTC in the first quarter of this year — more than the entirety of 2025 combined and well above the 20,000 BTC sold in the panic following the Terra collapse in mid-2022. That number sits quietly beneath the surface of what otherwise looks like a recovering market. Related Reading: Strategy Raises $1.76B War Chest As Saylor Signals Bigger Bitcoin Buy Miners Signal Trouble Even As Prices Climb The sell-off came as mining difficulty dropped 2.4% to 135 trillion, while network hashrate climbed back from roughly 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month, according to data from Glassnode. When producers sell at record pace during a difficulty drop, it points to one thing: tight margins. The economics of mining haven’t recovered the way the price chart might suggest, and any sustained move above $80,000 would have to absorb continued selling from that same group. Bitcoin was trading at $76,827 on Tuesday noon, up 1.4% over 24 hours, as Iran confirmed it would send a delegation to Pakistan for a second round of ceasefire talks. Ether gained 1.18% to reach $2,311. XRP rose 1.2% to $1.42. Solana trailed the pack, up just 0.9% on the day and down 1% for the week. The broader market moved in the same direction. The MSCI All Country World Index added 0.1% after pausing on Monday, with Asian equities leading the charge and the regional tech index gaining 2.38%. Brent crude slipped 0.7% to $94.80 a barrel. Gold fell 0.6% to around $4,800. Silver dropped 1% to $78.89. Treasuries and the dollar were largely flat. A Deadline That Markets Can’t Ignore The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran expires Wednesday evening, Washington time. US President Donald Trump said Monday he does not plan to extend it. Markets are now priced around that deadline. Three vessels attempted passage through the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, with American and Iranian blockades still active — the first real test of whether the waterway is clearing before any agreement is signed. Bitcoin has lagged equities throughout this stretch. The MSCI ACWI has been on an 11-day rally that stumbled only once since de-escalation began. Bitcoin, by contrast, spent that same period crawling back from below $75,000 to just above $76,000. ETF Demand Holds The Floor Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $996 million last week, according to SoSoValue. Ethereum spot ETFs brought in $276 million over the same period. That institutional buying has kept a floor under prices even as miners push supply into the market. Related Reading: Rave Token Crashes 95% As Manipulation Allegations Trigger Panic Research firm Kaiko said a clean break above $76,000 would open a path toward $85,000. Analysts at K33 flagged that same level as a potential short squeeze trigger. On the downside, a slide back below $75,000 — if Wednesday’s deadline passes without a deal — remains the key risk traders are watching. Bitcoin’s ceasefire rally gave the alpha crypto a lift. The miners are using it to sell. Until that changes, the rebound has a floor but no clear roof. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $75,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $77,350 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $74,500 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $75,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with resistance at $77,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $77,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Regains Traction Bitcoin price remained supported above the $74,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $74,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $75,000 and $75,500 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. There is also a rising channel forming with resistance at $77,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $75,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,250 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,344 swing high to the $73,637 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,350 level. A close above the $77,350 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,350 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,000 level. The first major support is near the $75,650 level. The next support is now near the $75,400 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,000, followed by $75,400. Major Resistance Levels – $77,250 and $78,000.

Anthony Scaramucci, the financier and SkyBridge Capital founder who briefly served as White House communications director, has made a bold case for Bitcoin’s long-term value.  According to him, Bitcoin’s market cap is well on track to reach $21 trillion, and this is because of its fixed supply, its growing institutional footprint, and a monetary trust system built over 16 years without any central authority. But if Bitcoin were to reach a market cap of $21 trillion, how much would 1 BTC be worth? The $21 Trillion Logic Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC baked into its protocol and is immutable by design. This means there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin in existence, and at a point, investors will be able to only own fractions of Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could See Another Crash, But What Is The Long-Term Prognosis? According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin has checked every characteristic that has defined money throughout human history. Bitcoin’s edge is that its trust model is decentralized, its supply is fixed, and its network has now operated long enough to gain credibility with both retail and institutional investors. That is why there is a high possibility of its market cap reaching as high as $21 trillion.  Scaramucci positions this as a ceiling still below gold’s total market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately $33 trillion according to data from CompaniesMarketCap. This gap is closable, and Bitcoin offers structural advantages in the process. “You can move it faster, you can store it more easily,” he said. “ On a fully diluted basis, the math lands exactly at a round figure for BTC. A $21 trillion market cap divided by Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins gives a price of $1 million per BTC. At the time of writing, only 20,018,784 BTC have been mined, which means there are about 981,216 Bitcoin still left to be mined. That’s less than 5% of the total supply. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $76,534, which means a rise to $1 million will translate to a 1,200% increase from here. Wall Street Is Coming To Bitcoin Institutional inflow is the most important factor when it comes to the possibility of the Bitcoin price hitting extravagant price targets like $1 million. Notably, Scaramucci cited institutional momentum as evidence that the structural shift is already in progress.  Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Morgan Stanley launched its own Spot Bitcoin ETF on April 8, 2026, trading under the ticker MSBT on NYSE Arca, making it the first major US commercial bank to issue such a product directly. Goldman Sachs is also in the process of launching its Spot Bitcoin ETF, having submitted paperwork to the SEC for the Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. Therefore, the question of whether Bitcoin eventually reaches $1 million per coin and a $21 trillion market cap is ultimately a question about the pace and durability of institutional adoption. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has recovered to its highest level since mid-January, a sign that belief is returning among crypto traders. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Hit A Value Of 33 The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that measures the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. To represent the investor mentality, it uses a scale running from 0-100. The value on the scale is calculated using the data of five factors: market cap dominance, volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says When the indicator has a value greater than 53, it means the average trader sentiment is one of greed. On the other hand, the indicator being below 47 implies the dominance of fear. The values in between the two cutoffs correspond to a net neutral mentality. Here’s what the current market sentiment is like, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 33 right now, which suggests that the Bitcoin market sentiment is one of fear. This is actually an improvement compared to what the investor mentality was like just a few days ago. From the chart below, it’s apparent that the Fear & Greed Index had a value of 21 on April 17th. Such a low value falls inside a special zone known as the extreme fear. Formally, this region is defined as corresponding to a value of 25 or lower and represents the state of highest despair among investors. The market sentiment had deteriorated into this zone as a result of the bearish market trajectory since Q4 2025. In January, some relief had come for the market as the recovery surge induced a flicker of greed among investors, but things changed quickly as the price crash that followed took the Fear & Greed Index to its lowest levels of the cycle. Recently, Bitcoin has again been making an attempt at recovery, and market sentiment has responded with an improvement. The current value of 33 is the highest that the index has been since January 19th. While sentiment has improved from the extreme fear zone, it’s still inside fear, meaning that investors aren’t yet fully on board with the bullish momentum. If history is anything to go by, though, this fact may actually play into the asset’s benefit. Often, digital asset markets have tended to move in a way that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. Related Reading: Is XRP Gearing Up For A 35% Move? This Pattern May Suggest So Since extreme fear is where investors are most sure of a bearish outcome, major bottoms have tended to form inside the region in the past. The same has been true for a similar region in the greed side of the scale, called the extreme greed (values above 75), which has facilitated top formations before. BTC Price Bitcoin’s recent rally has taken its price to the $76,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin enters the new trading week with a defined roadmap, as DeFi researcher and analyst, Sherlockwhale, identifies four specific price levels that could shape market direction. The framework is built on an extensive review of about 450 weeks of historical data, translating recent price action into a structured guide centered on how Bitcoin closes at the start and middle of the week. Bitcoin’s Weekly Structure Sets The Stage According to Sherlockwhale, Bitcoin ended last week near $76,000, reflecting a 7.2% increase from Monday’s opening price. While this suggests upward momentum, the internal structure of the weekly candle tells a more cautious story. Price climbed as high as $78,333 before pulling back, with a 1.79% drop on Saturday followed by only a modest recovery on Sunday. By the weekly close, Bitcoin had settled around 70% of its total range. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts XRP Price Will Hit $100 In 2026 If These Dominoes Fall This detail matters because a close at this level indicates that price remained in the upper portion of its range but failed to hold near its peak, leaving behind a visible rejection. Historical patterns analyzed by the analyst show that when Bitcoin breaks the previous week’s high but closes in this manner, the following week ends lower roughly 62% of the time.  Within this context, four price levels—$79,800, $79,116, $74,480, and $69,861—become central to the outlook. The analyst presents them as decisive markers, with their relevance tied to how price behaves during key checkpoints, particularly Monday and Wednesday closes. The Four Bitcoin Price Levels That Define the Week On the upside, $79,800 stands out as a major threshold, positioned about 5% above the weekly open. Historical data cited by Sherlockwhale shows that when Monday closes above this level, the week finishes positive nearly 89.6% of the time, rising to 95.5% in data tracked since 2021. Just below it, $79,116, approximately 1% above the prior high of $78,333, serves as confirmation that Bitcoin is holding above resistance. Midweek performance further refines the outlook. If Bitcoin remains more than 3% above Monday’s open by Wednesday, historical records across 141 instances point to an 86% chance of a positive weekly close. When gains exceed 5% by that point, the probability increases to 91.4% based on 93 occurrences. Related Reading: The Hidden FVG Zone That Says Ethereum Price Could Rally To $10,000 On the downside, $74,480 becomes critical. A Monday close below this level, about 2% under the open, signals that the prior rally may have been a false move. If losses extend beyond 2% by Wednesday, the week ends in the red about 80% of the time, with recent data showing no exceptions in similar conditions. Finally, $69,861, just below the previous low of $70,567, represents a full sweep of the weekly range. Interestingly, history suggests that such moves often precede a rebound, with the remainder of the week turning positive in roughly 81.8% of cases. According to Sherlockwhale, these four levels form a structured lens through which the week’s price action can be interpreted. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor announced on Monday that Strategy had carried out another massive Bitcoin buy. The multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin purchase did not come as a surprise to the market, given that the company had already been raising more money to buy BTC leading up to the day. However, what is interesting is how much BTC the public company now holds and what it means in comparison to other counterparts with large holdings in the market. Strategy’s BTC Holdings Have Now Crossed 800,000 BTC With the most recent buy, where the company bought 34,164 BTC, it has now seen its Bitcoin holdings cross the 800,000 BTC mark for the first time. According to the announcement, this latest BTC buy had set the company back a whopping $2.54 billion with an average price of $74,395 per Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Flips Key Resistance, ETF Demand Returns, Analysts Eye Next Leg Higher This brought the company’s total holdings to 815,061 BTC, with the total purchase history coming out to $61.56 billion spent so far. This buy also brought down the company’s average buy price for its BTC holdings to $75,527, decreasing its total entry point. With the holdings now sitting above 815,000 BTC, though, this means that Strategy has actually surpassed BlackRock when it comes to BTC holdings. Previously, BlackRock had dominated the market as Spot Bitcoin ETFs gained popularity rapidly, and BlackRock’s holdings grew very fast. However, at the time of writing, the BlackRock IBIT total BTC holdings sit below 800,000, at 798,062, according to data from Bitbo. This is a small gap, but it shows how Strategy’s BTC buys have continued to balloon, going toe-to-toe with BlackRock, which is a company that handles over $12 trillion in assets. Will Michael Saylor Stop Buying Bitcoin? In the past, Michael Saylor has said that Strategy’s move to buy Bitcoin as a treasury asset was not a short-term plan, and this has been proven over the years. The company began buying Bitcoin back in 2020, and five years on, it is still buying BTC and remains the company with the largest BTC holdings in the world. Related Reading: Dogecoin Nears Key Turning Point As TCT Model Begins To Form In an interview with CNBC back in February, Saylor reiterated his stance on Bitcoin, explaining that the company does not plan to sell its Bitcoin holdings anytime soon. So far, the company has not made its exit plan, or if there is one, public yet. So for now, the focus remains on the company’s BTC buys rather than a possible sell. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s rebound from the February 6 low at $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement, but the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun. In an April 20 video, the analyst argued that while long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, persistent selling from short-term holders and whales is still capping upside. Maartun framed the current setup as a question of market character rather than raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, roughly 24% above what he described as the bear market low, but he said that alone does not settle whether the market is turning higher in a durable way. “The real question isn’t how far the price has moved. It’s what kind of move this actually is,” he said. “Is this the start of a new trend or just another rally that gets sold into? And that distinction matters because misreading this phase is exactly how capital gets misallocated.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Pain Reaches Critical Threshold — Impact On Price Bitcoin On-Chain Data Still Flashes Caution His core argument is that the foundation beneath the market has improved even if price has not yet confirmed it. Over the last 30 days, long-term holder supply has increased by about 354,000 BTC, a shift he described as “structural accumulation.” In Maartun’s reading, that signals coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants less sensitive to short-term volatility. “That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” he said. “Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation. Long-term holders aren’t reacting to short-term volatility. So when their supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger base.” That constructive backdrop, however, is only one side of the picture. Maartun said a large part of the recent price push appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which he said brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14. He argued that such an aggressive capital injection would normally be expected to produce a stronger market response. When that does not happen, the implication is that substantial supply is meeting demand. On that front, Maartun pointed to two seller cohorts. The first is short-term holders, who have moved roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Crucially, he said this is happening while SOPR remains below 1, meaning those holders are exiting at a loss rather than selling from a position of strength. “We’ve seen roughly 60,000 BTC move to exchanges from this group,” he said. “And importantly, this is happening while SOPR is below one, which means they’re selling at a loss. They bought higher and now they’re exiting into strength. That’s classic behavior in a bear market environment.” He did not present that flow as wholly bearish. Instead, he described it as part of a broader rotation in which weaker hands sell into bids provided by stronger buyers. Still, he said it is a feature more commonly associated with bear market rallies than with clean trend continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Red: Bearish Signal? The second source of supply is whales. According to Maartun, wallets holding more than 100 BTC have been increasing exchange inflows, suggesting that distribution is picking up again at current levels. That matters because it creates a market where improving long-term structure coexists with active near-term selling pressure. Price action, in his view, reflects that tension. Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder realized price, which he placed around $83,000. Maartun described that level as a key pivot: in bull markets, price tends to hold above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance. For now, Bitcoin is still trading underneath it, and he said the market has yet to produce a clean breakout through major overhead levels. The result is what Maartun called a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” Long-term holders are accumulating, strategic demand has appeared, and weaker participants are being flushed out. But short-term holders are still selling at a loss, whales are distributing into strength, and price has not reclaimed a key structural threshold. That leaves the market in a conditional state. If demand can continue absorbing supply and push Bitcoin back above the short-term holder realized price, the improving backdrop could begin to translate into a more durable uptrend. Until then, Maartun’s conclusion is more restrained: the internal structure is getting better, but the rally has not yet earned the benefit of the doubt. At press time, BTC traded at $75,088. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com