A recent evaluation has surfaced that reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are slowly easing away from their deep profits, and that this could affect prices in either way, depending on further developments. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape Long-Term Holder Average Monthly SOPR Slips Under 1 In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, a pseudonymous on-chain analyst, Darkfost, reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are entering a fragile phase in the current cycle. This post is based on readings obtained from the BTC: Long-Term Holders (LTH) SOPR metric, which tracks if coins moved by Long-Term Holders are done profitably, or at a loss. A SOPR value above 1 reflects that holders of this category are, on average, realizing profits, while a reading below 1 signals that these coins are being moved at a loss. According to Darkfost, the current readings from the SOPR metric have fallen under the critical 1 level, and currently sit around 0.98 This is a sign that Bitcoin’s LTHs, which are typically the strongest investor hands in the market, are beginning to realize losses on a monthly basis. Interestingly, the scenario is somewhat different on the annual timeframe. Related Reading: XRP Emerging As Safe Haven? CEO Points To Steady Inflows As BTC, ETH Struggle Annual LTH SOPR Still Positive, But Trend Is Falling — Analyst Darkfost further highlights that, although the monthly timeframe leans towards the red zone, the annualized SOPR still sits well into positive territory, with readings at approximately 1.84. According to the analyst, this represents about 84% in average realized gains, by implication. However, the annualized profits have taken on a downward trend and have been slowly falling. Notably, the LTH SOPR has not gone higher than 3.4 on the charts throughout the current cycle, a value that is approximately half the readings seen in the previous cycle’s peak. Interestingly, this is also less than four times the peak of the two previous cycles, suggesting a less impulsive distribution among this investor cohort. Furthermore, Darkfost conjures historical data, showing that bear markets have formed only after the SOPR dropped towards the 0.6 region, a level that correlates with average realized losses of approximately 40%. Hence, while the current reading on the metric is below 1 every month, it is still far from the zone representing capitulation. For now, the Long-term holders have entered what seems to be a transitional phase. In the scenario where Long-Term Holder realized profits continue to fade, selling pressure might in turn erode from this side. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at a valuation of approximately $64,247, reflecting a loss of 4.85% over the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin is turning into multi-generational wealth, and a large share of holders still run it with a single point of failure. One accident, illness, or a stretch of incapacity can be the difference between inheriting generational wealth and losing everything. That's the inheritance crisis the market will have to face. A recent report from the […]
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The missiles started flying, and so did the sell orders. Within hours of the US and Israel launching coordinated strikes on Iran, Bitcoin had dropped as much as 3.8% to $63,038, Ethereum had fallen nearly 9%, and more than 152,000 traders had been liquidated across crypto markets. With traditional stock and bond markets closed for the weekend, digital assets absorbed the full force of the panic — alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst US And Israel Hit Iran’s Military And Nuclear Sites US President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday that the US had begun what he described as “major combat operations” against Iran, with strikes aimed at the country’s missile systems, naval assets, and nuclear infrastructure. Reports say Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz described the operation as a preemptive move, with both governments coordinating the assault. The scale and speed of the attack caught many off guard, and Iran’s response came quickly. The US is carrying out strikes on Iran, two US officials tell CNN. Follow live updates: https://t.co/pG6pfrPwlm pic.twitter.com/vPGeQ9ILHp — CNN (@CNN) February 28, 2026 According to reports, Iran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting not just Israel but American military installations across the Gulf region. A US base in Bahrain was reportedly struck. Qatar and the UAE said their defense systems intercepted projectiles flying over their territory. Explosions were heard in Dubai. Bahrain shut its airspace entirely. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency declared that all US bases and interests across the region would be considered legitimate targets. The conflict, by Saturday morning, had spread well beyond Iranian and Israeli borders. Crypto Markets Take The Hit Traditional Markets Cannot Yet Feel Stocks, bonds, and commodities markets were closed. Crypto was not. Bitcoin trades around the clock, every day of the week, which made it the only major financial market available to absorb the weekend’s fear. The selling was fast and broad. Reports say roughly $128 billion in total market value was wiped across digital assets in the hours following the strike confirmation. Related Reading: Crypto Mixing Is Back — And Criminals Adapted Faster Than The Rules Did Bitcoin fell from around $66,000 to as low as $63,038 before settling near $64,000. Ethereum dropped below $1,850. XRP slid 8% to trade near $1.29. Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Chainlink each recorded losses of between 8% and 12%. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures liquidations reached approximately $192 million, with futures trading volume surging to around $68.27 billion — a sign that derivatives markets were amplifying the move rather than spot sellers driving it alone. Total liquidations across all crypto assets hit $515 million within 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index, a widely watched measure of market sentiment, fell to 14 — deep inside extreme fear territory. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs under IEEPA on Feb. 20, and markets immediately inherited a large cash flow question. The amount at stake was more than $175 billion in tariff collections that could be subject to refunds, with the Court offering no step-by-step plan for how refunds should be […]
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Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who is of the notion that the cryptocurrency has officially entered bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000. Technical analysis of price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction to as low as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next price move. Bearish Territory Kicked In After Breakdown Below $107,000 The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered into bearish territory after the price broke down below a major higher-timeframe ascending trendline around $107,000. This trendline, which is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2023 to 2025 rally. It connected a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended with Bitcoin reaching a peak price of $126,080. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Done Or Is This Just The Beginning? Pundit Shares Points To Consider The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price decisively lost that upward support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered into a changed momentum and began printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was when Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next leg up. Fibonacci Levels Point To $44,000 And $35,000 Bitcoin has been on a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it bottoms out around $35,000. This outlook is based on how much the Bitcoin price corrected in previous cycles. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved For instance, the 2018 bear market saw an approximately 84% decline from peak to trough. Similarly, the 2022 correction erased roughly 77% from its cycle high. In both instances, these deep retracements came before the next major rally. Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior. The projected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the October 2025 all-time high. Two levels stand out clearly on the chart. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always attracted strong buying interest in previous corrections, making it a possible stabilization point if selling pressure slows down. Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, then the next level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. The expectation is that Bitcoin will eventually bottom at $35,000 even if it fails to hold above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down by 6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
As February comes to a close, it would be fair to say that the Bitcoin price has had one of its worst monthly performances in over two years. What’s worrisome is that the premier cryptocurrency doesn’t appear to be done, as the bear market roars on. Below are some of the relevant support levels to watch out for over the next few months. MVRV Bands Put BTC Bear Market Bottom At $51,558 In a recent post on the X platform, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified two levels that could be crucial to the future of the Bitcoin price in the coming months. This evaluation revolves around the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) pricing bands. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape The MVRV pricing bands are an on-chain analytics tool that shows the different profitability levels of the investors of a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario). Typically, these pricing bands represent dynamic support and resistance levels, as they compare the current market price to the average realized value of all investors. Hence, the MVRV pricing bands can be useful in identifying potential market tops (in overheated conditions) and price bottoms (of undervalued assets). According to Glassnode data shared by Martinez, the potential bottom in the current Bitcoin bear market lies between $51,558 and $54,703. The purple line (which shows a -1 standard deviation of the MVRV ratio) represents a deep capitulation phase for the market and has always been a point of reversal for the Bitcoin price in past bear markets. As shown in the chart below, the price of BTC got rejected twice at this level in 2022, during the thick of the crypto winter. At the time of publishing his post, Martinez revealed that the purple MVRV band stood at around $51,558. While this suggests that the $51,000 level could be the potential bottom of the current bear market, it is worth mentioning that the MVRV band could shift slightly downward as the price steadily falls. In the unlikely scenario that the Bitcoin price witnesses a turnaround at its current price point, it would have to contend with a key resistance level around $73,726. According to Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands, the -0.5 standard deviation line represents an accumulation zone, where investors might look to offload their tokens once they break even. Ultimately, these MVRV pricing bands hint at the potential turning points for the Bitcoin price over the coming months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $65,800, reflecting an over 2% dip in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have shown strength amid the crypto market’s correction and the flagship crypto’s latest performance. Some experts have praised investors’ resilience, suggesting that the “real story” is not in the recent outflows. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Fate Hangs On This Multi-Year Support – Recovery Or Deeper Pullback Next? ETFs Investors Hold Strong Despite Market Downturn On Thursday, Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, affirmed that Bitcoin ETF investors have “largely displayed diamond hands” during the recent crypto market downturn. The flagship crypto has seen a 48.2% correction from its October 6, 2025, all-time high (ATH), recording five consecutive months of strong bleeding after the October 10 market crash. Since then, spot BTC ETFs have seen about $6.5 billion in outflows, the expert observed, which he considers a “drop in the bucket” compared to the $55 billion in cumulative total net inflows that the category has seen since launching in January 2024. It’s worth noting that crypto-based investment products have seen five weeks of outflows this year, with Bitcoin having the weakest sentiment among major assets amid the negative market sentiment of the past month. According to SoSoValue data, BTC funds have recorded $3.81 billion in net outflows since January 23, starting the week with $203.82 million in outflows on Monday. However, Geraci highlighted potential renewed demand for the investment products as the category sees a three-day streak of consistent inflows. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1 billion in inflows over the past three days, setting the stage for their potential biggest week since mid-January. The ETF expert emphasized that 50% drawdowns “are a walk in the park for long-time BTC investors,” but observed that newer ETF investors also appear unfazed by the current market conditions. “Not first time btc has experienced 50% decline & likely won’t be the last. ETF investors clearly aren’t panicking, though. Apparently buying the dip,” he wrote on X. Bitcoin ETFs Strength Is The ‘Real Story’ Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas backed Geraci’s comment, praising the remarkable performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two years. “As an ETF watcher, you know just how absurd this strength amid a 50% drawdown,” Balchunas stated. “This is the real story, vs focusing on the $6b that came out, which most stories do.” “Further, the narrative that crypto is ‘paying the price’ for getting financialized is absurd. $55b in net new cash in two years is the opposite of paying the price,” he added on X. In a recent interview, the senior analyst observed that the amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs is only down around 6% despite the market pullback. He noted that these types of corrections happen to every asset, including bonds and stocks, before recovering. Stocks have the same thing. Every time stocks go down, I remind myself and then other people that stocks have a 100% perfect record of coming back to hit all-time highs from a downturn. So, why would I worry that much, right? Related Reading: XRP Rally Incoming? Analyst Forecasts March-April Recovery If This Level Breaks Balchunas affirmed that these assets can have “really horrible streaks, but then when they come back around, the flows come back.” He concluded that the price volatility and the negative market sentiment are “the cost of the holy grail returns that most people have gotten.” Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $66,000 level and is now attempting to consolidate above it in order to extend its recovery. The move has improved short-term momentum, but structural signals suggest that upside conviction remains fragile. Holding above $66K is technically important, yet the broader supply backdrop may limit the sustainability of further gains. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap According to analyst Axel Adler, cumulative exchange netflows remain a critical constraint. As long as netflows stay positive — meaning more Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges than leaving them — the probability of sustained price expansion remains limited. Recent data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (All Exchanges, Daily) metric reinforces this caution. Since January 14, total BTC held across major exchanges has increased from 2.723 million to 2.752 million BTC, representing a net addition of roughly 28,489 BTC, or about 1% over 45 days. Although the trajectory has not been linear — with a local peak near 2.794 million BTC in early February followed by a partial pullback — reserves have consistently re-established themselves near the upper bound of the range. This stepwise growth structure signals a persistent return of coins to exchanges. Historically, rising exchange balances imply expanding potential sell-side supply. Until reserves break decisively below January’s 2.723 million BTC baseline, structural selling pressure remains embedded in the market. Netflow Regime Shift Signals Structural Distribution The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange netflows provides critical confirmation that the recent reserve growth is not incidental. The transition from -1,187 BTC on January 14 to +628 BTC by February 27 represents more than a short-term fluctuation — it reflects a structural regime shift from accumulation to distribution. When the SMA(30) netflow remains negative, it indicates coins are being withdrawn from exchanges faster than they are deposited, typically associated with accumulation behavior. The steady climb toward zero throughout January, followed by a decisive cross into positive territory on February 1, marks a clear behavioral pivot. The fact that the indicator has held above zero for nearly four consecutive weeks significantly reduces the probability of a false breakout. The mid-February impulse toward +1,069 BTC highlights the intensity of inflows during peak distribution pressure. Although the metric moderated afterward, it did not revert below zero, suggesting that coins continue to migrate toward exchanges at a sustained pace. At an average structural inflow rate of roughly 628 BTC per day, the supply available for potential sale is expanding. Until the SMA(30) decisively flips back into negative territory, exchange-side pressure remains dominant, limiting the probability of a durable bullish regime reestablishing itself. Related Reading: The $2,000 Fault Line: Why Ethereum’s Record Volatility Signals An Imminent Explosion Bitcoin Tests Macro Support After Rejection From Highs Bitcoin’s weekly structure reflects a clear transition from expansion to correction following rejection near the $120K–$130K region. The chart shows a decisive breakdown below the $90K–$95K zone, which previously acted as structural support. That level has now flipped into resistance, confirming a shift in market control. Price is currently consolidating near $66K after a sharp decline, hovering just above the 200-week moving average. This level historically acts as a macro support during deeper corrective phases. Holding above it is technically significant; sustained closes below would likely signal a more prolonged bear cycle. The 50-week moving average has rolled over and is trending downward, while the 100-week average is flattening. This alignment indicates weakening intermediate momentum and suggests rallies may face overhead pressure unless key trend levels are reclaimed. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn Volume expanded notably during the breakdown phase, pointing to forced liquidations and distribution rather than orderly consolidation. Since then, participation has moderated, implying that panic selling has eased but conviction remains limited. Structurally, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal inflection point. A reclaim of the mid-$80K region would be required to restore bullish structure. Conversely, failure to defend current support could expose deeper liquidity zones below. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The latest Jane Street debate on X is meeting a blunt rebuttal from Ari Paul. The BlockTower founder, who says he used to work as a Wall Street market maker 15 years ago, argues that Bitcoin’s failure to push higher is better explained by spot sell-side than by a long-running suppression campaign. Paul’s answer was direct. “In short: no,” he wrote, before adding that market makers do “game the system” in many ways, but that in liquid products such as BTC ETFs, the effect is usually limited to “meaningful but small costs to consumers,” not a lasting distortion of the underlying asset price. He framed the distinction as one between short-term microstructure games and a broader claim that one firm kept Bitcoin from reaching far higher levels. Bitcoin Manipulation? Small Moves, Fast Reversions To make that case, Paul pointed to the kind of behavior traders on desks know well. “For example, market makers may manipulate the price to run stop limit orders,” he wrote. “But that’s typically on an intraday timeframe. So they might run an asset like MSFT or BTC 2% in a weak market to trigger stops, then a few seconds or minutes later, the price is mostly back to where it was before.” In his telling, that is still manipulation, but it is not the same as structurally pinning Bitcoin below some imagined fair value for months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases That argument lands against a more conspiratorial narrative now circulating online, why Bitcoin is not already at $150,000. Paul’s pushback does not deny that large Wall Street firms can shape short-term trading conditions. It rejects the stronger claim that such activity is the central explanation for Bitcoin’s broader price path. Paul’s core point was much less dramatic. “Why is BTC down? Because OGs sold tens of thousands of coins, and not enough people wanted to buy them.” That line closely matched the view from renowned on-chain analyst James Check, who argued that “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price” and that “HODLers all did,” by selling large amounts of spot into the market. Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin. https://t.co/CrWgPUzUFP pic.twitter.com/N3VhgYjKhm — _Checkmate ????????⚡☢️????️ (@_Checkmatey_) February 26, 2026 He added: “My point has always been the same; manipulation is a thing that has always, will always, and is indeed the literal job of large wall street firms. However, you do not need that as the central argument to explain why the price didn’t go higher, nor why it went lower. That can be well and truly explained by looking at spot sell-side.” Paul did leave room for exceptions. He wrote that there are rare cases where Wall Street manipulates an asset in major ways over a longer period, but said those cases are uncommon because they are risky and harder to profit from than people assume. Related Reading: Is Jane Street Why Bitcoin Isn’t At $150K? Expert Debunks The Myth “There are rare exceptions where Wall Street manipulates an asset in major ways longer term, but this is quite rare because it’s very risky and not as easy as it looks to profit. 99% of the time that an asset isn’t moving like you want and people are crying “manipulation”, it’s best to embrace the cognitive dissonance, avoid the “easy way out” of blaming manipulation,” Paul wrote. That leaves the current Jane Street argument in a narrower frame. Yes, large firms can influence intraday flows, liquidity, and execution quality. But based on Paul’s account, that is a long way from proving that one market maker is the reason Bitcoin is not trading materially higher. Notably, the Jane Street theory picked up fresh attention after Terraform Labs’ wind-down administrator sued the firm in Manhattan federal court, alleging insider trading tied to Terra’s 2022 collapse. The complaint says Jane Street used a private chat called “Bryce’s Secret” to obtain non-public information and alleges an 85 million UST trade on Curve that helped trigger a selloff; Jane Street has denied wrongdoing and called the case opportunistic. At press time, BTC traded at $66,090. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Institutional capital has transformed the cryptocurrency market dynamics, changing who participates and how digital assets are traded. The arrival of spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury allocations, and access through major brokerage platforms has pulled Bitcoin and Ethereum deeper into traditional finance. Vanguard, for instance, reversed its long-held anti-crypto stance just a few months ago, allowing trading in funds that hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. However, talking about bad timing, these cryptocurrencies have struggled in the months following that policy change. Challenging Months For Institutional Investors The entrance of major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments was a structural turning point for Bitcoin. The January 2024 launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States opened the door for pension funds, registered investment advisors, and other conservative capital pools to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin. These ETFs have accumulated billions of dollars in inflows, with custodians now holding a meaningful share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week However, the past few months have been really challenging for investors. Notably, the last month of inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs was in October 2025, when it was pushing to new all-time highs above $126,000. Since then, it has been months of net outflows, and this has weighed down on Bitcoin’s price action. Same goes for Spot Ethereum ETFs, which recorded consecutive months of outflows since November 2025. Vanguard clients are likely among those feeling the impact most directly. In December 2025, US-based investment management company Vanguard reversed its anti-crypto stance and started allowing trading of ETFs and mutual funds that hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. The availability of these crypto products on a major mainstream brokerage like Vanguard was a milestone for crypto investing. Vanguard manages over $12 trillion in assets and serves tens of millions of investors. Unsurprisingly, the price action of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies initially reacted positively to the Vanguard news. However, the timing coincided with a downturn across the entire crypto market, which has been having a red 2026 so far. Since Vanguard’s rollout, Bitcoin’s price has fallen by about 30%, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have fallen by about 40% in the same period. Is Institutional Involvement A Threat Or A Sign Of Maturity? It is clear that institutional entry has not erased the volatile nature of crypto markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still subject to swings in investor risk appetite, although this is now at a larger scale. Therefore, the question of whether institutions are killing Bitcoin and Ethereum is based on perspective. Related Reading: Why Investors Are Not Buying Bitcoin And Ethereum Despite ‘Low’ Prices The presence of regulated ETFs means that downturns are now absorbed by a wider set of market participants. Companies like BitMine and Strategy are still in the business of huge purchases. New investor bases like this can help sustain prices over time. However, one thing is clear: cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are no longer fringe assets operating outside the traditional investment system; they now sit within it. This integration will even become more clear once the CLARITY Act is passed in the US. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Most crypto funds have been losing investors lately. XRP hasn’t gotten that memo. While Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds have faced weeks of steady outflows, XRP-linked products have quietly been doing something different — attracting fresh money even on the market’s worst days. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin The Poor Man’s Hedge Against Inflation? Coinbase CEO Thinks So XRP Takes Half Of All New Altcoin ETF Money According to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg, XRP is capturing roughly 50% of all new capital flowing into altcoin ETFs. That’s a commanding share of a market that includes several competing assets. Solana comes in second, drawing around 30% of fresh inflows, while Hedera accounts for the remaining 20%. McClurg made the comments publicly, pointing to XRP’s staying power at a time when investor confidence across the broader crypto market has been shaky at best. The numbers behind that claim are hard to dismiss. Reports show that so far this month, XRP ETFs have recorded negative flow days on just three occasions. Bitcoin ETFs, by comparison, have posted outflows on nine separate trading sessions during the same period. That gap tells a story about where some investors are choosing to put — or keep — their money right now. ???? BREAKING: Canary Capital CEO just dropped something the market isn’t ready for.$XRP quietly absorbing capital while BTC & ETH see outflows. Even on red days. Even when Bitcoin ETFs bled. ???? https://t.co/MrCwbmUnPC pic.twitter.com/xEAMaMm80e — Xaif Crypto????????|???????? (@Xaif_Crypto) February 25, 2026 Last week offered perhaps the clearest snapshot of this divide. Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products together shed $250 million in outflows. XRP, meanwhile, pulled in $3.5 million. Modest in size, but striking given the conditions surrounding it. Steady Inflows Since Launch Reports say XRP ETFs got off to a strong start when the first spot product was listed on Nasdaq in mid-November last year. From that point through January 7, 2026, inflows came in consistently without a single day of net outflows — an unbroken streak that lasted nearly two months. That first outflow day in January was an exception to an otherwise clean run. Since then, XRP funds have largely held their footing while competing products struggled. The cumulative result of that run: $1.24 billion in total net inflows, with assets under management now sitting at a little over $1 billion. Among the individual products, the Canary XRP ETF leads with $280 million in net assets. Bitwise’s XRP ETF trails narrowly at $278 million — a gap thin enough that the rankings could easily shift with a few strong trading days. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have faced sustained selling pressure for months. New buyers have been hard to come by. XRP funds stepping into that environment and continuing to attract capital — rather than lose it — is a departure from what most of the market has been experiencing. Related Reading: Aave Crosses $1 Trillion In Loans — No Bank Required A Shift In Where Investors Are Looking Reports from Canary Capital suggest the pattern reflects something more than short-term trading behavior. Investors appear to be reallocating toward assets they see as having specific utility, with XRP’s established role in cross-border payments drawing attention from both institutional and retail buyers. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
As market participants focus on short-term price movements, Bitcoin is approaching a notable on-chain milestone, with the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC climbing toward record levels. This growing concentration of high-value holdings reflects increasing accumulation by large investors, and is viewed as a sign of strong long-term confidence in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. How Large Holders Influence Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Bitcoin is approaching a major milestone, with the number of wallet addresses holding at least 100 BTC set to surpass 20,000. An on-chain analytics firm, Santiment, highlighted on X that at current market valuations, a wallet holding 100 BTC or more is valued at roughly $6.78 million, indicating these addresses are largely controlled by high-net-worth individuals, funds, long-term holders, and institutional participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Underwater As Supply In Loss Spikes, Reaching Historic Extremes When the number of 100+ BTC wallets increases during or shortly after price declines, as it has been recently, it can be considered a bullish signal. While the number of whale wallets is rising, the overall percentage of BTC supply held by key stakeholders has not meaningfully increased. This helps explain why prices have remained suppressed. However, the growth in 100+ BTC wallets indicates broader distribution among large holders rather than a small group controlling the consolidation. In that sense, it points to less extreme consolidation at the very top. At the same time, it also shows that wealth is clearly migrating from smaller retail wallets into stronger hands. This does not signal decentralization at the smallest ownership level, but it does show that more separate entities are reaching the whale status. Historically, expanding whale wallet counts have often appeared during accumulation phases that later support the price recoveries. For a stronger structural shift to occur, the increase in wallet numbers would need to be matched by a rise in the overall supply they control. That dynamic typically unfolds as retail participants slowly sell off their coins to larger wallets. Meanwhile, history has shown that if retail traders eventually panic-sell or take profit too early, it might lead to the absorption stage. Is This A True Rebound Or A Dead Bounce? Bitcoin adoption is picking up pace across the sector. According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) just recorded their strongest day, pulling in roughly $500 million in a single day, reaching $750 million over the past two days combined at the time the report was published. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap Balchunas views the inflows as “a hitter in a slump going yard,” suggesting the market had been in urgent need of a catalyst after a prolonged period of weak performance. The strong back-to-back inflows have helped ease pressure on the sector, pushing year-to-date ETF outflows to under $2 billion. Despite the sharp turnaround, uncertainty remains about whether the inflow spike represents the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a temporary bounce. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Fidelity Digital Assets argues Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted enough that the familiar four-year boom-bust pattern and the brutal 80% drawdowns that often followed, may no longer be the default outcome. In a Feb. 24 research note titled “Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?” research analyst Zack Wainwright frames the call around a simple observation: Bitcoin is now a very different-sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs Bitcoin’s market cap at an all-time high of roughly $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, alongside signs of deeper liquidity and a steadier volatility regime than prior cycles. “As bitcoin matures, price behavior is diverging from previous cycles. Volatility decreasing even as price reached new highs above $126,000.” Bitcoin Demand Is Being Re-Shaped Fidelity’s volatility argument leans on one-year realized volatility and how it behaved around cycle peaks. In prior cycles, the pattern was broadly consistent: volatility would compress into new lows ahead of a major upside move toward new highs, then expand as the cycle overheated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says This time, Fidelity says the compression is arriving sooner after the peak. The note points to 17 new all-time lows in one-year realized volatility logged in January 2026—just months after Bitcoin notched fresh all-time highs in October 2025—calling it a meaningful divergence from the cadence of earlier cycles. The team attributes part of that dampening to scale: Bitcoin is about twice the market cap it was at the 2021 peak, roughly 10x 2017’s peak, and over 200x 2013’s. The second pillar is who is holding supply, and how sticky that demand appears. Fidelity highlights a cohort of 49 public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC each, with combined holdings above 1 million BTC, over 5% of circulating supply. It also notes that, since Q1 2020, this group increased holdings quarter-over-quarter in every quarter except Q2 2022, when Tesla sold a large portion of its position. On the ETF side, Fidelity writes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC as of Jan. 30, 2026, about 6.4% of circulating supply. The note adds that the category leader surpassed $75 billion in assets under management in under two years, contrasting that pace with gold’s flagship ETF, GLD, which took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. Together, Fidelity says public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of circulating supply, with most of the growth coming after 2023—a demand shift the team views as structurally important for drawdowns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases Fidelity also argues the cycle has looked “notably stable” across several on-chain and issuance-linked measures. Using a profit-window framework, when addresses in profit first exceed 95% through the last time they remain above 95%, the note says MVRV has stayed roughly around two times realized value through most of the bull market, rather than spiking toward four-to-six times as in earlier cycles. The report flags a counterfactual to illustrate the point: if market cap reached four times realized cap in this cycle, it would imply roughly a $4.5 trillion market cap and about $225,000 per BTC as of Feb. 2, 2026. It also notes the Puell Multiple has stayed close to one, signaling daily issuance value hasn’t meaningfully deviated from its one-year average. Fidelity’s new “Profit to Volatility Ratio” is where the drawdown claim becomes explicit. The team sets 0.01 as a stability line and says the ratio has stayed above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained period at those levels in Bitcoin’s history. Even with a February 2026 downturn that pushed BTC below $70,000, the ratio remained above the threshold. “A measurement above 0.01 can be considered very stable. Conversely, a measurement below 0.01 should be viewed with caution.” The implication, Fidelity suggests, is not that volatility disappears—but that the classic cycle-ending wipeouts may be less likely in a market increasingly shaped by institutional channels and a larger, more liquid base. If that regime holds, the next phase could look less like a blow-off top and more like a slower, more methodical repricing, higher over time, but with fewer cliff-edge resets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,677. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Expert trader Tony Severino, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s top, has raised the possibility of a crash to $4,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to break key resistance levels, signaling that it could be at risk of a deeper decline. Expert Trader Raises Potential Bitcoin Drop To $4,000 In an X post, Tony Severino questioned the possibility that the next Bitcoin bull market is a lower high followed by a lower low. His accompanying chart showed BTC may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could spark a crash to $4,000. As such, he urged market participants to play the range and cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin 5TH Wave Is Not Over Yet, And Price Could Still Crash To $52,000; Analyst Warns When asked about a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, the expert trader said it’s more speculative because the idea of a bottom can change over time. However, he noted that BTC is bottoming now on shorter timeframes and that on the longest timeframes, it could still take a while. Severino also recently stated that he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, implying a bottom at around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $40,000 before it finds a bottom. Notably, BTC continues to struggle, suggesting it remains at risk of a deeper decline despite the recent relief rally to $70,000. In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold. The platform added that this pattern is consistent with a thin-liquidity regime, in which even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts. How BTC Could Drop To $30,000 In This Bear Market Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market between 2009 and 2026. He warned that if the global macro breaks down, then the $30,000 level is the fallback level of support. The analyst highlighted $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? However, Willy Woo believes $45,000 would be a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that this bearish sell-off by investors appears to have been exhausted, which may allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month and possibly rebound to the mid $70,000 range. However, this level would likely be rejected. The analyst explained that this is because the broader regime is heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Willy Woo predicts that Q4 would be a good time for the end of the bearish trend and that Q1 or Q2 2027 would be an appropriate time for bullish momentum to return. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
It has been a rough stretch for Bitcoin. Prices have been pinned between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks, and a brief dip below $67,000 on Thursday did little to ease investor nerves. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin The Poor Man’s Hedge Against Inflation? Coinbase CEO Thinks So Now, a handful of analysts are saying the worst of the selling may finally be over — though what comes next is far from exciting. No Crash, No Boom — Just Patience Crypto analyst Willy Woo put it plainly on X. The wave of bearish selling by investors “seems to have exhausted,” he said, giving Bitcoin some breathing room to trade flat for the next few weeks. A small bounce toward the mid-$70,000 range is possible. But Woo was clear — that kind of move would almost certainly be pushed back down before it gains any real footing. His best guess for when the bearish trend actually ends is Q4 2026. A genuine bull run, he said, probably won’t return until Q1 or Q2 of 2027. This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected. This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE — Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026 The wait, in other words, is measured in quarters — not weeks. Woo also flagged something that doesn’t show up in Bitcoin’s price chart. Both spot and futures market liquidity are deteriorating at the same time. That combination, he said, has never historically produced a real Bitcoin rally. Until one or both of those conditions improve, any upward movement is likely to be temporary. Why Did Bitcoin Drop In The First Place? Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan had a straightforward answer to that question. Forget the theories about market manipulation or fears over quantum computing breaking crypto encryption. According to Hougan, the explanation is simple — people who owned Bitcoin sold it. Some followed the four-year market cycle. Others cashed out to fund investments in AI companies. Some had no particular reason beyond wanting out. “They are mostly done selling, and we are in the process of bottoming,” he wrote on X. The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else. The real reason bitcoin is down is that a… — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 26, 2026 Spring Will Come New all-time highs will come, he added. “This is a classic crypto winter, and there will be a classic crypto spring.” Related Reading: Aave Crosses $1 Trillion In Loans — No Bank Required For now, Woo’s analysis offers the most grounded take on where things stand. The selling has slowed. The market is catching its breath. But with liquidity still weak and no clear catalyst on the horizon, Bitcoin’s path forward looks less like a comeback and more like a long, quiet wait — one that, by his own estimate, won’t end until the final months of 2026 at the earliest. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Following the Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 in early February, the question on the lips of every investor is when the bleed will end. To this end, a number of analysts have shared their expectations and predictions for where the Bitcoin bottom might be. Some have posited that the worst is over, while others have suggested that there are still more crashes to come. Following the latter trend, crypto analyst Plan C has shared why they believe the Bitcoin price has finally reached a bottom. Bitcoin 80-90% Crash Not Possible This Time Around In previous cycles, when the Bitcoin market had gone from a bull run to a bear market, there have been varying degrees of crashes that were experienced before the bottom was established. Over the last few bear markets, these have been around 80-90% crashes, often spurred by major events surrounding the market. Following this trend, expectations remain that Bitcoin might also see a similar crash, which would mean that the bear market is far from over. However, crypto analyst Plan C has combated this idea, as he believes that bitcoin will not repeat the exact same trend seen before. Related Reading: XRP Price Turns Completely Bearish, But Is A Crash To $1 Still Possible? Instead of the 80-90% crash that is expected to put Bitcoin somewhere around the $25,000-$30,000 range, the analyst says that Bitcoin will only crash 50-60% this cycle. If this is correct, it would mean that Bitcoin is not far from registering a bottom at this point. Going by this, his forecast, this would put the Bitcoin price bottom somewhere between $50,000 and $63,000. Given that the BTC price had previously fallen below $63,000, it means that the bottom might be in, or close to it. Such a deviation would mean that Bitcoin would no longer be following the established 4-year cycle trend. This is not a new theory, as analysts in the past have suggested that the digital asset began deviating from the 4-year cycle when it hit a new all-time high back in early 2024, before the halving. This was triggered by institutional entry through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, bringing about a new wave of bull runs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lows: Analyst Says We’re Doomed If This Happen While predictions continue to fly around the crypto community and speculations about what price Bitcoin will bottom at, it remains a matter of time to see what eventually happens. For now, the bulls continue to put up a fight in a bid to send the price above $70,000 again. But sentiment remains firmly negative as the Fear & Greed Index continues to sit in Extreme Fear. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is finding near-term relief after a sharp rebound toward the $70,000 level, offering temporary optimism following weeks of sustained pressure. The move has improved short-term momentum and eased immediate downside risk. However, the broader market remains characterized by indecision, as many analysts argue that this advance may represent a relief rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the start of a renewed bull phase. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, while price has recovered meaningfully from recent lows, underlying derivatives data suggest caution. Open Interest has fallen significantly from prior cycle highs, reflecting an extensive deleveraging process across futures markets. Importantly, the recent price decline occurred alongside contracting Open Interest, indicating that forced liquidations and derivatives-driven position unwinds were primary drivers of the selloff rather than sustained spot distribution. Such resets can be constructive, as they reduce excessive leverage and stabilize funding conditions. Nonetheless, a cleaner derivatives landscape does not automatically translate into fresh structural demand. Without clear evidence of renewed capital inflows or expanding spot participation, the current rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed volatility. Muted Exchange Flows Suggest Stabilization, Not Yet Structural Strength Recent exchange flow data adds nuance to Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Binance’s Fund Flow Ratio remains subdued near 0.012, indicating that inflows relative to total BTC reserves on the platform are limited. In practical terms, this suggests that immediate sell-side pressure has not intensified, even during the recent move toward the mid-$60K region. The absence of a spike in this metric implies that investors are not rushing to transfer coins to exchanges in panic, which typically accompanies more aggressive distribution phases. However, low inflows should not automatically be interpreted as accumulation. The medium-term trend in the ratio’s moving averages continues to drift downward, indicating that sustained structural demand has yet to reassert itself. Markets can stabilize without transitioning directly into expansion, particularly when liquidity conditions remain cautious. Additional context from derivatives positioning reinforces this ambiguity. With leverage still relatively compressed, upward price movements can disproportionately trigger short liquidations, generating rallies driven more by position unwinds than fresh capital deployment. This type of rebound often improves sentiment temporarily but may lack durability without stronger spot participation. Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from active selling toward stabilization. Confirmation of a genuine bullish reversal will likely require consistent inflows, improving liquidity, and clearer evidence of renewed investor demand. Related Reading: How Vitalik Buterin’s 11,422 ETH Liquidation Is Testing Ethereum’s Bear Market Absorption – Details Bitcoin Tests Support After Sharp Correction Bitcoin remains under pressure following a pronounced correction from its recent highs, with price currently stabilizing near the $68,000 region. The weekly structure shows a clear loss of upward momentum after rejection around the $110K–$120K zone, followed by a decisive breakdown below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This shift typically signals weakening intermediate trend strength rather than simple short-term volatility. Price is now hovering close to the 200-week moving average, historically a critical structural support during transitional market phases. Holding this level could help stabilize sentiment and potentially define a medium-term floor. However, a sustained breakdown below it would likely increase downside risk, as it would confirm deterioration in long-term trend structure. Related Reading: The $33 Billion Drain: Bitcoin Realized Cap Craters as Capital Abandons the Network for a Second Month Volume dynamics also warrant attention. The recent selloff occurred with elevated activity compared with preceding consolidation phases, suggesting that distribution — not merely thin liquidity — contributed to the decline. That said, volume has started to moderate as price consolidates, indicating reduced urgency among sellers. Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a defensive consolidation phase. Recovery above the shorter moving averages would be required to restore bullish momentum, while failure to hold current support could extend the corrective cycle further. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,000. BTC is now consolidating above $66,250 and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,200 support. The price is trading above $67,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,250 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips To Support Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $68,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,000 level. There is also a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $68,250 level. A close above the $68,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,500 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,000 level. The first major support is near the $66,250 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $65,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,000, followed by $66,500. Major Resistance Levels – $68,000 and $68,500.
SUI has repeatedly tested key support, but every breakdown attempt has been aggressively absorbed. Instead of accelerating lower, the price has stabilized and begun to compress, a classic sign of underlying demand. With volatility tightening and pressure building, the question now is whether this absorption phase is setting the stage for a powerful upside expansion. SUI Re-Enters the Spotlight at $0.9884 A fresh analysis from Altcoinpedia highlighted that SUI is trading around $0.9884, with accelerating ecosystem metrics bringing the high-performance network back into focus among traders and builders. Its strong transaction throughput remains a core advantage, allowing applications to scale efficiently without congestion while maintaining low latency for users. Related Reading: SUI Drops Below $1 Despite Launch of First U.S. Staking ETFs by Grayscale and Canary Developer activity continues to expand, with new DeFi protocols, gaming projects, and consumer applications launching to leverage SUI’s object-centric architecture. Liquidity across ecosystem-based decentralized exchanges has grown steadily, signaling meaningful participation rather than short-term speculation. At the same time, broader institutional access is creating regulated exposure pathways, while on-chain data shows increasing wallet growth and consistent network utilization, which are clear signs of genuine traction. The conversation around SUI is shifting from early potential to proven execution. Markets tend to reward ecosystems where technical performance aligns with usability, and that alignment is becoming increasingly visible. With price consolidating near zones that historically attract strategic accumulation, the overall structure appears constructive. As liquidity deepens, developer momentum strengthens, and institutional awareness expands, the foundation for a larger move continues to build. The key elements for expansion are in place, and with breakout energy forming, the broader market may soon begin to reflect that progress. Volatility Expansion, But Breakdowns Absorbed SUI’s price against Bitcoin tapped 0.00001351, and the reaction was immediate. According to crypto analyst Umair Crypto, volatility expanded sharply, yet every attempt to close below that level failed. Each breakdown was met with absorption, resulting in roughly 2 days and 8 hours of tight consolidation, with 14 consecutive candles holding right at support. That kind of behavior signals active defense, not randomness. Related Reading: SUI Slides Into Key Fib Support — Is the Downtrend Far From Over? Now, price is beginning to push higher, but confirmation is still required. The next major trigger comes from the BTC pair. Sustained closes above 0.00001372 would break the RSI trendline and signal a potential structural shift in momentum. If that breakout materializes, it could lead to the USDT pair reclaiming the 50 SMA, a recovery of the black box resistance zone, activation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a measured move targeting approximately $0.96. Until the BTC pair decisively breaks structure, the USDT pair remains constrained, trading near range lows and below the 50 SMA. In this setup, the BTC pair dictates direction, and the USDT pair follows. Featured image from YouTube, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin spot trading activity has fallen to its weakest level of the year even as a fresh CryptoQuant signal suggests one important pocket of selling pressure may be starting to fade. Darkfost, a contributor at CryptoQuant, said February is on pace to finish as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot volumes since the start of 2024. He tied that slowdown to a broader retreat in risk appetite as traders pull back from directional exposure and wait for firmer macro or technical confirmation. “February is on track to close as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot trading volumes since the beginning of 2024. This comes alongside BTC’s price revisiting levels last seen in 2024 as well,” Darkfost wrote on X. “The current climate of uncertainty surrounding BTC has pushed investors toward a more defensive stance, resulting in a marked reduction in risk-taking.” Bitcoin Liquidity Keeps Thinning Out The scale of the slowdown is visible across the major venues. Darkfost said Binance still leads by a wide margin with nearly $75 billion in February spot volume, ahead of Gate.io at $25 billion and Bybit at $20 billion. Even so, that dominance has not insulated Binance from the broader contraction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high in October, monthly spot volumes have been roughly cut in half across the largest exchanges, according to the post. Binance fell from $198 billion to $75 billion, Gate.io from $53 billion to $25 billion, and Bybit from $41 billion to $20 billion. Rather than an exchange-specific issue, Darkfost framed the move as a market-wide pullback in participation. He also linked the deterioration in liquidity to the aftermath of the Oct. 10 shock, when open interest dropped by more than 70,000 BTC, or roughly $8 billion, in a sharp reset of leveraged exposure. In his telling, that event did not just hit derivatives positioning. It appears to have accelerated a broader disengagement from crypto trading activity. “This phase of disengagement is directly reflected in the steady decline in spot trading volumes observed across major exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. “This dynamic points to a generalized trend affecting all major exchanges.” That matters because spot flows tend to carry more weight when traders are looking for evidence of durable demand rather than fast-moving leverage. A recovery built on stronger spot participation generally looks sturdier than one driven mainly by derivatives. Coinbase Pressure Shows Signs Of Easing Against that weak backdrop, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to a more constructive short-term signal: “Selling pressure on Coinbase is easing.” The chart shows the Coinbase Premium Index moving back into positive territory after spending most of the time in February below zero (with a few exceptions). By the latest reading on the chart, the premium had recovered to roughly 0.006 while Bitcoin traded near $68,300. This suggests the discount on Coinbase relative to offshore venues has narrowed, easing one sign of US-led sell pressure. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says That does not contradict Darkfost’s broader caution. If anything, the two signals fit together. Spot liquidity remains thin and the market is still operating in a low-conviction environment, but one of the more closely watched measures of immediate selling intensity is no longer deteriorating. Darkfost was explicit about what would need to change for the picture to improve in a more meaningful way. “As it stands, this simultaneous contraction in spot volumes reflects a structurally cautious market phase, where participants prioritize capital preservation over directional exposure while awaiting clearer macroeconomic or technical signals. For a bullish recovery to materialize, or for a durable bottom to form, stronger spot volume support will be essential.” For now, that leaves Bitcoin in a familiar late-cycle holding pattern: sellers may be backing off on Coinbase, but without a broader return of spot demand, the market still lacks the depth that usually underpins a stronger move. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,153. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is now inching towards $70,000, but there is enough to worry about around $64,000. Crypto analyst Tara expressed concern that Bitcoin’s fifth wave may not be complete, with a prediction that further downside could still be ahead. In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that the current move could either be the start or the final stretch of a fifth wave decline, and there’s still a possibility of the Bitcoin price falling to as low as $52,000. Double Bottom Support At $59,900 And $60,500 Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Tara shows that Bitcoin has built a major support around the $59,900 to $60,500 range. This area is based on prior swing lows and a visible double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick price chart. It also coincides with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels projected from above $70,000. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? According to the analyst, Bitcoin could see a strong reaction if the price were to fall to that region. A bounce from this support could drive the Bitcoin price back to $64,400, which would then be tested as resistance instead of support. However, such a rebound may only be temporary. If the macro fifth wave structure continues to play out, the market could still be setting up for one final push lower after that retest. According to Tara’s wave interpretation, this final push lower could extend to as low as $52,000. This level is not yet fixed and will be remeasured as price action develops, but it represents a possible completion zone for the broader fifth wave. It is important to note that Bitcoin actually managed to hold above $60,000 throughout February, so therefore, the outlook to $52,000 is a worst-case scenario. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour timeframe is trending lower and approaching oversold territory. Tara advised traders to watch for bullish divergence on the RSI during the next drop. A bullish divergence on the RSI could be the first sign of the end of the corrective structure. Bitcoin Might Register Higher Support At $64,000 Over the past few weeks, the $64,000 region has stood out as a decisive pivot for Bitcoin, repeatedly flipping between support and resistance depending on the direction of price. In a separate update, Tara highlighted that Bitcoin recently backtested the macro 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64,400 as resistance before attempting to push higher. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Reclaiming $64,000 would be an important step toward reversing the current bearish macro trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,220, up 4% over the past 24 hours. Even so, there is still a risk of a pullback. A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the short-term recovery and could expose the prior swing low at $60,500. On the flip side, bullish momentum would be confirmed if Bitcoin breaks above $70,000. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted how Ethereum is still undervalued on the MVRV, while Bitcoin and XRP have turned neutral. Profitability Has Shifted For Bitcoin, XRP, & Ethereum After The Price Jump In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about how the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has changed for some major digital assets following the market recovery that has occurred over the past day. The MVRV Ratio is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the market cap of an asset against its Realized Cap, a measure of the total amount of capital that investors have put into the network. Related Reading: Cardano Sharks & Whales Quietly Accumulate 819M ADA Amid Price Decline In short, what the MVRV Ratio tells us about is the profit-loss status of addresses on the blockchain as a whole. When the metric is above the 1 mark, it means investors are, on average, in a state of unrealized profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold suggests the dominance of losses. Here, the MVRV Ratio of the entire network isn’t of relevance, but that of a particular slice of it: the buyers from the past month. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the cohort’s MVRV Ratio for the five top cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, and Chainlink. From the graph, it’s visible that the 30-day MVRV Ratio has risen for all five of these assets recently. This is a natural result of the price recovery that has taken place over the past day. Bitcoin has returned above $68,000, and Ethereum is back beyond $2,000. While prices across the market have surged, the MVRV Ratio isn’t reflecting a uniform situation. Bitcoin, XRP, and Chainlink are all inside the neutral zone with the metric sitting at -1.4%, -0.1%, and +3.3%, respectively (note that the 0% mark corresponds to the 1 level here). Meanwhile, Ethereum has seen its 30-day trader returns remain inside a zone that the analytics firm defines as corresponding to a “mildly undervalued” status, despite the fact that the coin’s price has surged 6% in the last 24 hours. Though with an MVRV Ratio of -5.5%, ETH is only just inside the area. On the other end of the spectrum is Cardano, which has observed the indicator fly to a value of +6.8%, entering into the “mildly overvalued” zone. Generally, the larger the investor profits get, the more likely they are to participate in profit-taking. Due to this reason, a high value on the MVRV Ratio can be a sign that a correction could be coming. Similarly, a low value suggests the presence of a high degree of market pain, which could result in a bottom formation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “Buy and dollar cost average when a coin is in an ‘Undervalued’ zone,” explained Santiment. “Be cautious when a coin reaches an ‘Overvalued’ zone.” ETH Price Ethereum briefly broke above $2,100 during its surge, but the coin has since witnessed a minor retrace to $2,070. Featured image from Dall-E, chat from TradingView.com
A prominent market commentator has projected that the Bitcoin price could climb as high as $500,000, citing the reappearance of a long-observed moving average ribbon pattern on the monthly chart. The forecast, shared by Egrag Crypto on X, ties price structure to specific time windows in 2026 and 2028, arguing that technical alignment is outweighing short-term market narratives.pl Bitcoin Price Ribbon Setup Signals Expansion Phase At the center of the $500,000 prediction is the reformation of a multi-layer moving average ribbon on the one-month timeframe. The chart provided by the analyst shows the 33 EMA, 66 MA, 80 EMA, and 100 EMA compressing and beginning to expand in a configuration that has historically marked major cycle transitions. Related Reading: Pundit Gives Reasons Why XRP Price Will Hit $10 In 2026 This structure is not presented in isolation. In previous cycles, similar ribbon compressions were followed by decisive impulsive advances. The analyst points to an earlier period on the chart when the price consolidated within the ribbon before accelerating sharply upward, forming a pattern that now appears to be repeating. Because this setup mirrors prior cycle behavior, he characterizes it as a fractal, indicating structural similarity across different market phases. The ribbon’s position relative to current price action reinforces the broader thesis. Bitcoin remains structurally above the layered averages, a condition that in earlier cycles preceded sustained upside rather than distribution. When price reclaimed and held above this cluster in the past, expansion phases followed. Based on those historical expansion multiples, the analyst outlines an intermediate target near $150,000 and extends the upper boundary of the move toward $500,000. This framework deliberately shifts focus away from sentiment-driven fluctuations. Instead, the moving averages are treated as objective markers of where Bitcoin stands within its long-term cycle, forming the analytical foundation for the half-million-dollar projection. Timing Window Points To 2026 And Late 2028 Alignment Building on the structural case, the forecast also incorporates a defined timeline. The chart highlights October 2026 as a key waypoint, aligning with a potential continuation phase if the emerging ribbon fractal develops in line with historical precedent. Beyond that initial window, a second period is identified around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2028. The analyst references election cycles as a contextual factor, suggesting that macro narrative and technical structure could converge during that timeframe. Related Reading: The Multi-Year XRP Bull Market That Could Change Everything Forever The projected path on the chart reflects this staged process. Rather than a single vertical surge, it outlines a series of consolidations followed by accelerations, echoing previous cycles before peak expansion. By integrating price structure with calendar timing, the projection frames the $500,000 target as the culmination of a repeatable cyclical pattern. In this context, the ribbon fractal is positioned not as speculative optimism, but as the structural roadmap underpinning the analyst’s expectation of a potential surge toward half a million dollars. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades. Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin? Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers. “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.” The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.” That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand. “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress. The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Other Experts Agree Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.” That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry. Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.” Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin climbed to $69,550 on Wednesday, its highest point in over a week, after a sharp swing upward from around $62,350 in less than a day. The move came as US stock markets turned green again, giving investors across the board a reason to buy back in. Related Reading: Crypto’s Biggest Bull Run Could Come From The Most Unexpected Place: AI Bubble ETF Cash Returns After Five Weeks Of Outflows One of the clearest signs of renewed confidence came from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund market. Reports say US-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $257.7 million in a single day on Tuesday — a notable turnaround after five straight weeks of withdrawals that had drained roughly close to $4 billion from those same funds. Fidelity drew approximately $83 million of that total. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted close to $79 million. The return of institutional buying added fuel to a rally already building on the back of a calmer macro backdrop. The broader stock market’s recovery was partly tied to US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night, in which he described his first year in office as an economic success. He pointed to falling mortgage rates and a 1.7% drop in core inflation over the final three months of 2025. Markets took the speech as a sign that the policy chaos seen in recent months — particularly around tariffs and court battles — might be settling down. Spot Buyers, Not Speculators, Are Behind This Rally What makes this price move stand out is the data beneath the surface. Reports note that Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest — a measure of outstanding futures positions — has actually been declining even as prices climbed. It fell from above 240,000 BTC earlier in the week to around 235,167 BTC. That kind of drop suggests traders with borrowed money were closing out positions rather than opening new ones. Funding rates tell a similar story. They remain slightly negative at around -0.0037%, meaning short sellers are currently paying fees to traders betting on higher prices. That is an unusual setup during a strong rally, and it points to a market where aggressive speculation has been squeezed out rather than amplified. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Ticking Upward The cumulative volume delta — which tracks whether buyers or sellers are more aggressive on spot markets — has been ticking upward, confirming that real purchasing activity is driving the move. According to market experts, options market dynamics are also playing a role. Dealers holding what is known as a positive gamma position tend to buy when prices dip and sell when prices rise, as part of routine hedging. That behavior acts as a natural shock absorber, smoothing out big swings and making explosive breakouts harder to sustain in either direction. Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price action over the last few months has been unpredictable. But one thing has been clear, and that is the fact that bears have remained firmly in control of the price action. From here, there are a number of ways that the Bitcoin price could play out, with most speculations pointing toward a possible recovery. However, there are levels that the Bitcoin price must maintain in order to actualize this recovery or risk losing ground to bears. Bitcoin Price Needs To Hold Above $60,000 Crypto Analyst Swallow Academy, in a recent analysis, showed that the $60,000 level has become one of the most important support points for the Bitcoin price. This is because this was the lowest point of the early February crash, suggesting that bears may want to retest it again. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu: What Meme Coin Should You Buy For Most Returns In 2026? Given this, it has become imperative that bulls hold this in order to activate another recovery trend. In this case, if bulls are able to successfully defend the price and hold above $60,000, triggering a reclaim of buy-side volume, then a recovery will follow. The analyst predicts that such a recovery would see the Bitcoin price bounce back to the $70,000-$75,000 area. As a result, the major city of liquidity would be wiped out. After this, a downtrend would eventually begin, which would be the natural path for such a trend. However, in the case of bulls failing to hold $60,000 and buy-side pressure fails, then sell-side pressure is expected to rise. This scenario would see the Bitcoin price begin to dip faster than expected and trigger another crash trend, to push it toward new yearly lows. Related Reading: What To Expect For Ripple’s XRP If A Retail Run Were To Happen Swallow Academy’s analysis posits that a break of the local lows would result in another very deep move to lower lows. While this is not entirely bearish, as the price is expected to recover from lows, the chart shows that the Bitcoin price could dip below $44,000 before a local bottom is then established. Currently, Bitcoin bulls have mounted a notable defense above $62,000, suggesting that this is the next level to beat for bears. Alternatively, the previous cycle low lies at $61,354, and a break below this point would be the first time that Bitcoin has done this in history. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a sharp rebound in the Bitcoin price that pushed the digital asset close to the $70,000 level once again. Bitcoin climbed roughly 8% on the day, approaching a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month. The renewed strength was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) advanced 12%, XRP gained 8%, and Solana (SOL) surged 13%, reflecting a wider return of risk appetite across digital assets. Bitcoin Price Nears $70K As Altcoins Outperform Market experts suggest the bounce may be driven largely by investors stepping in after an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the upward move likely reflects dip-buying activity following the recent selloff. She added that a decisive move back above $70,000 for the Bitcoin price could alter the broader market narrative, potentially restoring confidence after weeks of pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be In A Price Slump—But Adoption Is In A Bull Market Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. Although demand for cryptocurrencies in the US has softened in recent weeks, it seems that capital is now rotating into altcoins, as evidenced by the gains made by ETH, XRP and SOL, which have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 24 hours. Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack, noted that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the context of the broader financial system. When liquidity conditions tighten, he said, volatility tends to increase. In that environment, assets such as Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that were previously driven primarily by momentum. Still, some analysts caution against interpreting the rebound as a definitive turning point. Is Bitcoin Forming A New Bottom? Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, drew comparisons to the market environment in 2022, when a steep decline was followed by months of sideways consolidation before a sustained recovery eventually took hold. He observed that after the 2022 Bitcoin price downturn, it took more than a year for the market to regain and surpass prior highs, suggesting patience may be required this time as well. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, offered a nuanced view in his latest Bitcoin price outlook. He argued that the most intense phase of downside pressure is likely already behind the market. Among the supportive signals he cited were Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average (MA) and realized price, historically important technical levels. Related Reading: Expert Forecasts $5 Trillions Pouring Into Crypto Post CLARITY Act Passage In addition, more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently underwater, the relative strength index has reached levels often associated with capitulation, and several other on-chain indicators are flashing signs that a bottom may be forming. However, Thorn also warned that even if the worst of the decline has passed, further challenges could lie ahead for the Bitcoin price. He said that market bottoms typically take time to fully develop, and prolonged sideways movement remains a possibility. A downturn in equities could exert additional pressure on digital assets, and the broader market still appears to lack a strong catalyst to drive sustained upside momentum. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how accumulation from the large Bitcoin entities has remained relatively weak recently. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Has Been Struggling To Break 0.5 In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Accumulation Trend Score for Bitcoin. This on-chain indicator tracks whether BTCinvestors are accumulating or distributing right now. The metric calculates its value by looking at the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors. Additionally, it also accounts for the size of the wallets themselves. This second weighting factor means that larger entities have a stronger influence on the indicator. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means large investors (or a large number of small entities) are accumulating. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this behavior is. On the other hand, the indicator being under 0.5 implies that distribution is the dominant behavior on the network. The extreme point on this side of the scale lies at 0. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has changed over the course of the cycle: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price crash in November saw the Accumulation Trend Score take on a dark purple color. Here, a light yellow shade on the indicator reflects a value close to zero, while a dark purple one to a value near 1. Thus, it would appear that the market reacted with a near-perfect accumulation behavior to the November price lows. While December saw continued accumulation, a shift occurred in January; the price recovery rally was met with distribution as the Accumulation Trend Score turned orange-yellow. The cryptocurrency’s price has plummeted since the onset of this selling pressure. The price crash has been met with some accumulation, but from the chart, it’s visible that the indicator’s color has still only been red. “The Accumulation Trend Score has struggled to push above 0.5 since early February,” noted the analytics firm. While the current value suggests aggressive distribution is no longer happening, it’s not necessarily a sign of a return of demand for Bitcoin, either. As Glassnode explained, the trend reflects “persistently weak accumulation, particularly among larger entities, signalling that meaningful capital has yet to step back in.” It now remains to be seen how long the current neutral market behavior will continue and which way the next shift will lean. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses BTC Price Bitcoin slipped under the $63,000 level on Tuesday, but the market has rebounded since then as the cryptocurrency’s price has returned to $65,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to struggle to push decisively above the $66,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on sentiment across the crypto market. Despite intermittent rebound attempts, momentum remains weak, with buyers showing limited conviction while volatility stays elevated. The broader environment — shaped by cautious liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and restrained risk appetite — has kept Bitcoin locked in a consolidation phase rather than a sustained recovery trend. Related Reading: Why XRP’s 0.16 Leverage Floor Ends The Era Of The Flash Crash – And the Hope for a Quick Recovery Increasingly, Bitcoin is not behaving like “digital gold,” a narrative that dominated market discourse for years. Instead of acting as a defensive asset during periods of economic stress, Bitcoin has recently traded in closer alignment with equity markets, particularly technology stocks. This correlation suggests that capital is treating Bitcoin more as a high-beta risk asset than as a store of value comparable to precious metals. This shift challenges a long-standing thesis within the crypto ecosystem. While the digital gold narrative remains influential, current price behavior indicates that liquidity cycles, institutional positioning, and broader macro risk dynamics are exerting stronger short-term influence. Whether Bitcoin eventually reclaims its perceived safe-haven role or continues behaving like a risk asset will likely depend on evolving macro conditions and investor positioning. Correlation With Nasdaq Highlights Structural Shift According to On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has structurally tightened since 2020, marking a significant shift in how capital allocates to the asset. While earlier cycles showed more episodic alignment, recent data reveals that BTC now frequently trades in tandem with technology equities. Notably, the sharpest correlation spikes have tended to coincide with broader market drawdowns, particularly during bear market phases. This pattern is critical. In theory, an asset positioned as “digital gold” would be expected to decorrelate from risk assets during periods of stress. Instead, the data suggests the opposite: when liquidity contracts and equities sell off, Bitcoin often follows. These synchronized declines indicate that institutional capital increasingly treats BTC as part of the broader risk complex rather than as an independent hedge. Whether this development aligns with ideological expectations is secondary. The reality is that capital flows, portfolio construction frameworks, and macro-driven positioning now play a dominant role in Bitcoin’s price formation. Large allocators appear to manage BTC exposure alongside growth equities, responding to the same liquidity signals, rate expectations, and volatility regimes. Until correlation regimes shift meaningfully, Bitcoin’s behavior is likely to remain closely tied to macro risk cycles rather than to traditional safe-haven dynamics. Related Reading: The $33 Billion Drain: Bitcoin Realized Cap Craters as Capital Abandons the Network for a Second Month Bitcoin Price Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Pressure Bitcoin continues to trade under clear technical pressure, with price action struggling to reclaim the $66,000–$67,000 zone after a sharp corrective move from late-2025 highs. The weekly chart shows a decisive break below the 50-week moving average, followed by rejection near that level, which now acts as dynamic resistance rather than support. This shift typically reflects weakening medium-term momentum. Price is currently hovering just above the 200-week moving average, a level historically associated with major cycle support. While this area often attracts strategic buyers, repeated tests without strong rebounds can weaken its effectiveness. Volume spikes during recent downside moves suggest distribution rather than accumulation, although confirmation would require sustained follow-through. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators Market structure also shows a sequence of lower highs since the peak near the $120K region, indicating that bullish continuation has stalled. Until Bitcoin reclaims the mid-$70K range and stabilizes above key moving averages, rallies may remain corrective rather than trend-reversing. That said, proximity to long-term support means volatility could increase. Either a structural rebound or a deeper capitulation phase remains possible, depending largely on liquidity conditions, macro sentiment, and institutional positioning in the coming weeks. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto markets are sitting in a mood that rarely looks like hope. Fear sits very high, and that kind of fear has traders asking whether the worst is already behind them or still to come. Extreme Fear And Market Signals Reports note the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently hit a low of 11, one of the weakest readings this year. That kind of reading has shown up near big turns before, but it is not a guarantee of an instant rebound. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Some pieces of market data point to deeper stress — consumer credit trouble, weak housing figures, and loan strain — while other parts of the market, especially certain tech sectors, have kept rising. One analyst warns that what looks like calm at the surface may be hiding pressure underneath. Jesse Eckel argues the broader economy has been dragged forward by gains in AI-driven stocks, even though many everyday measures show strain. His view: investors who want exposure to AI’s upside may find it easier to chase smaller crypto tokens than to buy into giant tech firms. AI Speculation Spreads To Smaller Tokens That logic is simple. Big tech stocks are expensive. Smaller crypto projects promise bigger upside for retail traders who want a quick win. Analysts say this pattern could push money into crypto rails when mania returns, and that retail buyers often prefer instruments that feel close at hand and cheap. Yet there is a difference between wanting a bet and finding a solid reason to make one, and that difference matters to outcomes. A Paid Model’s Bold Numbers Some forecasts backing the bullish case come from an AI model accessed by market participants. The model gave numbers that look dramatic: roughly $155,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026 and about $240,000 by 2027. Those figures are treated as directional estimates, not precise promises, and the analyst using the model stressed they should guide thinking rather than dictate it. How This Might Play Out If money does rotate from expensive tech shares into speculative crypto bets, the flow would likely start small and then build as headlines and social chatter amplify the move. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin The Poor Man’s Hedge Against Inflation? Coinbase CEO Thinks So That could lift small tokens first. Big moves often happen after long stretches where few people expect them. But the timing is hard to pin down. Market sentiment can stay negative for a long time even when conditions for a rebound are present. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView