Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $78,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $75,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $77,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $76,000 and $75,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $77,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $77,000 level. There was a move below the $76,500 level. The price even dipped below $76,000. A low was formed at $75,652 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,480 swing high to the $75,652 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,500 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $77,150 level. A close above the $77,150 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $77,500 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,480 swing high to the $75,652 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,500. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,000 level. The first major support is near the $75,800 level. The next support is now near the $75,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,500 and $77,150.
Bitcoin’s valuation against gold has dropped to one of its lowest levels on record — a signal that, historically, has shown up near major market bottoms. Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update A Pattern Worth Watching That’s one of the key observations from crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, who believes Bitcoin is building toward new all-time highs before the year is out. Van de Poppe points to the relationship between Bitcoin and gold as a telling sign. When gold rallies hard, Bitcoin often lags. But once gold peaks, Bitcoin has tended to catch up — and then some. That rotation, he argues, may already be in motion. His broader case rests on more than just one metric. The Sharpe ratio — a measure of return relative to risk — is currently sitting at levels that mirror past bear market floors: 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each of those periods was followed by significant price recoveries. Based on that pattern, van de Poppe believes Bitcoin is undervalued right now and offers a strong risk-reward setup for long-term investors. Short-term dips, he said, remain possible. But the overall structure of the market, in his view, points higher. Key Price Levels To Watch Bitcoin recently hit a 12-week high before pulling back. It is now working to hold above the $77,000 mark. According to van de Poppe, $79,000 is the critical resistance line. A clean break above it would open the door to a move between $86,000 and $95,000. From there, $110,000 becomes the next target over a six-month window. On the downside, $73,500 is the level to watch. If that support holds, the uptrend stays intact. If it breaks, a deeper retest could come before any renewed push higher. Data shows that Bitcoin dropped close to $60,000 back in February before snapping back sharply — a move that caught many traders off guard. That kind of recovery against bearish sentiment is not unusual in past cycles, reports note. Related Reading: Trump Memecoin Gala Leaves Crypto Battling Fresh Credibility Crisis A Big Target For Year’s End The long-range call is the one drawing the most attention. Van de Poppe sees Bitcoin reaching between $150,000 and $160,000 by late 2026 — a level that would represent new all-time high territory. He bases that projection on historical cycle behavior, which has shown 30% to 50% gains within three months of a confirmed low. Whether that bottom is already in remains an open question. But for van de Poppe, the signals are stacking up in one direction. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin and Ethereum have spent the past few weeks moving like assets caught between two powerful forces. On one side, institutional demand has returned through Spot ETFs, treasury purchases, and dip-buying from larger investors. On the other side, profit-taking and heavy derivatives positioning keep turning rallies into sudden pullbacks. ETF Demand Is Slowly Lifting Bitcoin And Ethereum The crypto market has not been moving in a clean straight line. Bitcoin has pushed close to the $80,000 level more than once in the past week, only to lose momentum around $79,000. Ethereum has been following these moves, but with its own ETF flow and positioning pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin The strongest reason Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rising is the return of institutional inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been on a strong inflow streak in April, with data indicating more than $2.2 billion in net inflows between April 14 and April 24. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $823.7 million from April 20 to April 24, while Ethereum ETFs attracted about $155 million over the same week. That helps explain why Bitcoin was able to rebound strongly from its earlier March range in the mid-$60,000s and move back near $78,000 to $80,000. Bitcoin recently came close to $80,000, reaching around $79,475 over the weekend before reversing, showing that sellers are still active. A War That Crypto Cannot Ignore The single biggest driver of crypto volatility in 2026 has been a conflict thousands of miles from any blockchain. The US-Iran conflict has been the biggest factor in how the cryptocurrency market has been facing mounting pressure. Related Reading: Analyst Says Ethereum Just Confirmed A ‘Turtle Soup’, Here’s What It Means The sudden onset of military conflict in February delivered an immediate and severe shock that pushed cryptocurrencies to their lows. However, earlier in April, Bitcoin jumped to an 11-week high in light of easing US-Iran tensions and talks of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As it stands, US President Donald Trump’s national security team is reviewing an Iranian peace plan to halt the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the strait if the US lifts its blockade and sanctions on the country. Bitcoin and Ethereum price fluctuations have largely tracked these ups and downs and worries over rising oil prices. An ongoing US naval blockade and Iran continuing to seize ships suggest, however, that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is still far off. The third force behind the sharp swings is leverage, as crypto markets are heavily influenced by derivatives. For instance, the recent Bitcoin rally to $79,000 caught many traders off-guard, and over $200 million worth of short positions were liquidated. Buying pressure on the Bitcoin derivatives side has yet to simmer down, as on-chain data shows BTC net taker volume recently surged to around $145 million. Ethereum has also seen aggressive derivatives activity. Recent data showed ETH futures open interest jumping 26% to about $25.4 billion. Ethereum buyers are also at their most aggressive buying spree phase since early 2023. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
A bill to lock in the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is being renamed the American Reserves Modernization Act — and that’s just one sign that the policy is moving faster than many expected. Related Reading: XRP Signals Imminent Breakout — Is A 10% Rally Coming? Congress And The White House Move In Parallel Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, told attendees at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas on Monday that a major update on the reserve is coming within weeks. He said the executive branch has spent months working through the legal and operational questions needed to properly secure bitcoin already sitting on the government’s balance sheet. “We believe we’re going to be able to take a big step forward from the executive branch side in the next few weeks,” Witt said. The announcement, whatever form it takes, is expected to cover how the reserve will be run and how existing law supports it. An open question remains: will it say anything about buying more bitcoin? Right now, the reserve holds only seized assets — bitcoin collected through criminal and civil forfeitures. No new purchases have been authorized. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 establishing the reserve. That order directed the government to hold its existing bitcoin rather than sell it, and created a separate stockpile for other digital assets. But executive orders can be reversed by the next administration, which is exactly why lawmakers want a law to back it up. The Push To Codify The Reserve Sen. Cynthia Lummis and Rep. Nick Begich have been working on legislation to do that. Their bill — formerly called the Bitcoin Act — proposes acquiring up to 1 million BTC over five years through budget-neutral strategies. On Monday, Begich announced the bill is being rebranded as the American Reserves Modernization Act, or ARMA. The changes in the reintroduced version have not been fully disclosed yet. Witt was clear that legislation must follow any executive action. The White House can move first, but Congress needs to act to make the policy stick. Market Skepticism Remains Not everyone is convinced this will move quickly. Polymarket data shows only a 23% chance of the US formally establishing the reserve before 2027. The Clarity Act, a broader crypto market structure bill that was seen as a stepping stone for the reserve, is still facing delays in the Senate. Related Reading: Trump Memecoin Gala Leaves Crypto Battling Fresh Credibility Crisis Ethics concerns are also hanging over the broader crypto agenda. Democrats have pushed for provisions that would bar executive branch officials — including the president — from promoting or issuing digital assets, with critics arguing Trump family involvement in crypto ventures creates a conflict of interest. The coming weeks will show whether the White House’s expected announcement delivers something concrete or simply sets the stage for a longer legislative process still ahead. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Young workers between 18 and 45 are the target audience for a new Bitcoin investment product quietly launched last month by Porvenir, the largest pension fund administrator in Colombia. Related Reading: XRP Signals Imminent Breakout — Is A 10% Rally Coming? The fund says it designed the offering specifically for people who want to diversify their retirement savings but have never had a regulated, simple way to do it. A Low Bar To Entry The minimum investment is COP100,000 — roughly $25. That figure alone separates this product from most institutional crypto offerings, which typically carry thresholds that exclude lower-income workers. Porvenir manages about 25% of Colombia’s total pension assets, and the country’s pension system covers around 60% of its working population, according to World Bank data. The numbers suggest the product’s reach could be significant over time. The fund does not buy Bitcoin directly. Instead, it routes investor money into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, which tracks Bitcoin’s price and manages more than $50 billion in assets. That structure means account holders gain price exposure without needing to set up a crypto wallet, remember a private key, or worry about their holdings being hacked. Porvenir has been open about what the product does not do. It does not shield investors from price swings. If Bitcoin falls, so does the portfolio. Before anyone can put money in, a risk assessment must be completed to confirm they understand what they’re getting into. Not The Only Fund Moving This Way Porvenir is not the first Colombian pension manager to go this route. Protección and Skandia have already released similar products. Juan David Correa, president of Protección, said access to Bitcoin should be part of a long-term diversification approach rather than a way to chase short-term gains. The products at both firms are limited to voluntary pension plans — mandatory retirement savings are kept separate. The product was officially announced at the Asofondos Annual Congress in Cartagena in April 2026. Porvenir operates as the pension arm of Grupo Aval. Related Reading: Trump Memecoin Gala Leaves Crypto Battling Fresh Credibility Crisis Voluntary Accounts Only The Crypto Porvenir Portfolio sits within voluntary pension accounts, not mandatory ones. That distinction matters. Workers are not automatically enrolled or exposed to Bitcoin through their required contributions. Participation is a deliberate choice, subject to a screening process. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a response to “wartime inflation,” not just the artificial intelligence cycle. Hayes framed the recent shift around a simple premise: governments are openly preparing to spend more on defense, and that spending ultimately has to be financed. In his view, that puts Bitcoin back in familiar territory as a liquidity-sensitive asset with a hard-money narrative. “Since the war has started, Bitcoin has outperformed,” Hayes said. “It outperformed NASDAQ and outperformed the SaaS stocks. And basically, I think that Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Turns Neutral For First Time Since January The core of Hayes’ argument was not that the Fed will suddenly return to explicit quantitative easing. Instead, he focused on what he described as a likely balance-sheet reshuffling between the Fed and the commercial banking system, one that could allow officials to claim the Fed is shrinking while leaving the broader dollar liquidity picture largely intact. Bitcoin Vs. The Hawkish Fed Narrative Hayes addressed market concerns around Kevin Warsh, whom he said investors have viewed as a potentially hawkish Fed chair because of his criticism of the central bank’s large balance sheet. Hayes said those fears miss the practical constraints facing monetary officials when the US government is still issuing massive amounts of debt. “If the market believes that there’s going to be less dollar liquidity floating around the system because of what Warsh will do with the Fed, then they’ll be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets,” Hayes said. “This is what we’ve seen in the media talking about sort of this hawkish Fed that’s going to come into place after May when Warsh takes over. Now, I don’t believe that’s the case.” According to Hayes, Warsh would be constrained by the Treasury’s need to keep the bond market functioning. He argued that the Fed cannot pursue balance-sheet reduction in a vacuum when the US government must continue funding large deficits. “At the end of the day, when you’ve issued $38 trillion of debt and you need to fund the government, the Federal Reserve will do what it’s asked to do, which is make sure the market is orderly so that people can buy this debt,” Hayes said. The Bank Balance Sheet Trade Hayes’ central mechanism is a swap: commercial banks reduce their holdings of Fed reserves and replace them with Treasuries and repos. In that scenario, the Fed’s balance sheet can become smaller on paper, while the banking system absorbs more government debt. “The point of all this is that the net effect on dollar liquidity is neutral,” Hayes said. “There’s nothing being sold, there’s nothing being bought. It’s just a swap. It’s purely regulatory fiction in terms of who is allowed to hold what.” That distinction matters for Bitcoin because Hayes says investors should care less about the stated size of the Fed’s balance sheet and more about whether the overall system is creating or destroying dollar liquidity. If debt simply migrates from the Fed to regulated bank balance sheets, the impact may be far less restrictive than markets fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says Hayes linked that transition to US banking deregulation and specifically cited changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which he said went live on April 1. In his telling, the rule change allows large banks such as JPMorgan and Citibank to absorb more Treasuries and repos, while smaller banks can expand construction and industrial lending. He also cited an S&P Global estimate that the ESLR balance-sheet reduction could generate $1.3 trillion of new loans. Wartime Spending Becomes The Demand Engine Hayes argued that the demand side of the lending cycle is already visible. Defense spending, critical resource production and AI infrastructure are all becoming national-security priorities, he said, creating borrowers with government-backed demand and therefore more attractive credit profiles for banks. “Why will banks have demand for loans? One of the criticisms about this analysis from some of my other macro-fans is that they claim the banking system is not creating enough loans or there’s not enough demand,” Hayes said. “Well, we have a great source of demand that is the US Department of War.” He said banks would lend to defense suppliers, resource miners and hyperscalers as AI capital expenditure becomes part of the national-security framework. Hayes described bank lending as especially important because, in his view, it carries a higher multiplier than central bank lending, estimating that around $4 trillion in credit could ultimately be created. That is the basis for his renewed bullishness. Hayes said his liquidity chart bottomed in November of last year, roughly around the same time as Bitcoin, and argued that after a period of war-driven uncertainty, the market may now be ready to move higher. “I think we’ve had a bit of a chop. We’ve had a bit of a war. Now it’s time to break out,” Hayes said. “And that’s why I believe Bitcoin is going higher. I think my end of year choice target is like $125,000, whatever, it doesn’t fucking matter, I’m wrong anyways.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,628. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As the end of April approaches, some market observers suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) could be preparing to reclaim a crucial level in the coming days, potentially opening the door to another recovery rally next month. Related Reading: Why The 42% Crash From ATH Is Actually Good For Bitcoin And The Crypto Market Bitcoin Sees First Weekly Close Above Key Levels Bitcoin has closed above a crucial level for the first time since January, setting the stage for a potential rally toward higher levels even though it failed to break through another resistance level. Notably, the flagship crypto ended the week above $78,000, a level that was lost after the late January-early February market crash. Amid this close, BTC reclaimed the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in the weekly timeframe, one of the key barriers after the recent price jump. Last week, analyst Rekt Capital affirmed that if Bitcoin closed the week above this level, it could prevent a retest of the $73,000 area and “would be worth watching for whether the EMA can be reclaimed as support,” as it tends to act as resistance during bear markets. Now that the cryptocurrency has closed above this level, confirmation of the 21-week EMA as support could lead to a move toward the $81,000-$82,500 area. Similarly, Ali Martinez said that the price could rebound toward the $81,500 area if the $77,000 continues to hold. According to the analyst, BTC is consolidating within a rising channel on the 4-hour chart, with the lower boundary currently located around $77,000. As he noted, “If this floor holds, it could serve as a strategic rebound zone to send BTC back toward the channel mid-range near $81,500, with a secondary target at the channel top of roughly $84,500.” BTC Eyes May Breakout From ‘New Cage’ Analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that Bitcoin appears to have “found a new cage to be trapped in.” After breaking out of the $66,000-$74,000 consolidation range earlier this month, BTC has since traded between $74,000 and $80,000. To the market watcher, this would not be a bad sign for bulls, “as long as it consolidates above $74K and doesn’t break down below.” Michaël van de Poppe noted that the markets are “shaping up for more upside” while Bitcoin holds crucial levels, but warned that there are key levels to consider despite the bullish momentum. According to the post, a decisive reclaim of $79,000 open the gates toward the next key resistance area between $85,000-$88,000, which could lead to a retest of the $100,000 phycological barrier over time. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says Meanwhile, no clear breakout would lead to a consolidation period before another retest of the key resistance. In that case, holding $73,500 would be crucial, he noted, as losing this area would set the stage for a retest of the lows. Nonetheless, he suggested that Bitcoin will likely retest the $85,000-$88,000 area in May and correct or consolidate from there. It’s worth noting that this resistance area was lost in early January and has not been tested since. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $79,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $76,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $78,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $77,600 and $78,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $78,500 resistance zone. BTC formed a top near $79,500 and started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $78,000 level. The price dipped below the $77,500 and $77,000 levels. A low was formed at $76,480 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,481 swing high to the $76,480 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $76,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,300 level. The first key resistance is near the $77,600 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,600 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,481 swing high to the $76,480 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,800. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,600 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,750 level. The first major support is near the $76,500 level. The next support is now near the $75,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,500, followed by $75,500. Major Resistance Levels – $77,600 and $78,000.
Data shows fear has faded among Bitcoin traders as the Fear & Greed Index has improved to the neutral territory for the first time since January. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Surged To A Value Of 47 The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the sentiment present among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index makes use of a numerical scale running from zero to hundred to represent the trader mentality. All values on this scale below 47 imply the presence of a fearful sentiment, while those above 53 correspond to greed in the market. The indicator being between these two cutoffs naturally suggests a net neutral sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Warning: Social Media FOMO Spikes Again To calculate its score, the Fear & Greed Index incorporates the data of five metrics: volatility, trading volume, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. Here’s how the current Bitcoin market sentiment looks based on these factors: As displayed above, the Fear & Greed Index has a value of 47 at the moment, which implies that the cryptocurrency traders as a whole share a neutral sentiment. This mentality is a new one for the market, as traders were quite fearful just earlier. From the chart below, it’s visible that the indicator has spent most of its time in 2026 sitting deep inside the fear region. Since the end of January, the market has not only been stuck inside the fear region, but it has actually been in its deepest trenches, inside a zone known as the extreme fear. This region, which corresponds to index levels of 25 and lower, is where FUD among investors is at its strongest. The recent wave of extreme fear in the digital asset sector was a consequence of the bearish action that the various assets have seen since Q4 2025. The latest market recovery, however, has finally broken this spell of extreme despair. With a value of 47, the Fear & Greed Index is currently at its highest level since January, when Bitcoin and other coins observed their first major relief rally of this bear market. Related Reading: Dogecoin Keeps Getting Capped At This Parallel Channel Level, Analyst Says Back then, the rally ended up fizzling out before long, so it only remains to be seen what the fate will be of the current surge. A key difference between the two rallies is that the latest one has arrived after the market has already spent an extended period in the extreme fear zone, which is where major bottoms have historically tended to form. As such, it’s possible that a low may already be behind for the cryptocurrency market, but only time will tell if that’s the case. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $77,800, up 3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Is Bitcoin quietly evolving beyond finance into a tool of national defense? That question is gaining traction after comments from Samuel Paparo, the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, reported that BTC may have significance beyond markets, hinting at a role in cyber defense, power projection, and strategic competition. Paparo pulled back the curtain on a quiet but potentially significant shift in how the technology is being evaluated at the highest levels of defense. Could Bitcoin Support The Future Of Military Readiness? In a recent X post, an analyst known as TFTC updated that the head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command revealed that the US military is actively running a Bitcoin node and testing the protocol’s cryptographic architecture for operational security. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Still Acts Like A Risk Asset Despite Safe-Haven Claims Furthermore, Paparo reportedly framed BTC as a tool for securing and protecting networks, and suggested its relevance to power projection in the context of strategic competition with China. Not mining, not speculating, but running infrastructure. The same network once mocked as a haven for criminals is now considered critical to national security by the Department of Defense. Meanwhile, the US is estimated to hold roughly 328,000 BTC, while China is believed to control around 194,000 BTC. Whether BTC was intentional or incidental, the military is treating it as an asset in a geopolitical arms race. A Message That Shifted Bitcoin Narrative Away From Mystery It has been 15 years since Satoshi Nakamoto handed Bitcoin to the world. Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research, has stated that Nakamoto sent what is widely believed to be his last confirmed communication. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Renewed Demand From US Institutional Players — What’s Changing? On April 26, 2011, Satoshi wrote to Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen, urging him to shift the narrative away from the shadowy figure and toward emphasizing BTC as an open-source project and community contribution. In the days leading up to that message, Satoshi had already begun stepping back. In a message to developer Mike Hearn on April 20 and 23, Satoshi said he had moved on to other things, reassuring him that BTC was in good hands with Gavin and everyone. His last public post was earlier on December 12, 2010, in his 575th post on the Bitcointalk forum. The focus was on warning about a potential DoS attack, and signing off with the fact that there was still more work to do. Fifteen years later, the coins remain untouchable. Satoshi holds roughly 1.097 million BTC, currently worth an estimated $85 billion, still sitting untouched. In Alex’s view, when Satoshi said BTC was in good hands, he wasn’t only speaking to early developers; he was speaking to all of us, and we must carry that legacy forward. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A crypto analyst has warned against giving in to the FOMO and buying Bitcoin (BTC) at new highs. He noted that although the cryptocurrency could continue its upward move and even push past $80,000, this does not necessarily signal the end of the broader bear market. Instead, he argues that the move could be a strong distribution phase, leading to further declines. He also projects that Bitcoin could still experience a deeper correction, with a potential market bottom forming near $40,000. Analyst Warns Against Buying BTC At $85,000 @Sherlockwhale, a crypto market analyst on X, is sounding the alarm for traders who believe Bitcoin could glide smoothly past the $83,000-$88,000 price range without encountering resistance. According to him, this zone exhibits more sell pressure than any other level in BTC’s current chart structure. Related Reading: Analyst Who Called Bitcoin’s Top Correctly Now Predicting The Bottom The analyst based his view on a broader Fibonacci retracement structure drawn from Bitcoin’s past move between $97,000 and $60,000. He described this range as a full impulse wave to the downside, followed by a recovery phase where the price has been making higher rebounds but still facing sharp pullbacks. From this structure, @Sherlockwhales identified key upside levels on BTC’s chart at $83,435 (0.618 Fib), $84,647 (0.65 Fib), and $89,797 (0.786 Fib). He noted that this cluster forms a major untested resistance zone on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. According to him, untested resistance areas like these tend to attract heavier sell pressure because traders who bought at those levels are still underwater and may look to exit as the price returns toward breakeven. Further explaining, @Sherlockwhales stated that the average cost basis for all US Spot Bitcoin ETF holders is currently $87,830. This means that investors who bought the ETF over the past two years are still holding substantial unrealized losses, with BTC currently trading below their entry level. According to the analyst, this makes the $87,000 to $88,000 range an important psychological level for the market. He noted that if Bitcoin returns to this upper range, many ETF investors would reach breakeven for the first time in months. He added that this could trigger increased selling pressure, as investors who have been in pain since its ATH in October 2025 may choose to sell their coins to recover past losses. Similarly, @Sherlockwhales noted that the short-term holder cost basis currently sits around $80,100. He explained that whenever Bitcoin moved above this basis, it formed a local top because short-term holders took the opportunity to exit the market at a profit. The analyst emphasized that this pattern has already played out twice, each time leading to a sharp price breakdown. He now warns that if BTC experiences another upward rally toward $80,000, it could fuel another wave of selling pressure and potentially lead to a similar pullback. Analyst Predicts BTC Crash To $40,000 And Where To Buy Because @Sherlockwhales believes most underwater investors would sell their coins for a profit at upper resistance levels, he warns traders not to buy BTC around $85,000, suggesting it could be a bull trap. He predicts that the Bitcoin price could crash toward $40,000, possibly marking its final bottom before a new bull trend begins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin Rather than buying at $85,000, the analyst urges investors to wait until October before entering the market. He noted that prices during this time window would present the most favorable long-term buying opportunity for traders. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is moving through another major reset following its 42% crash from its all-time high. However, what appears to be a sharp decline may actually be laying the foundation for the next phase of growth. A crypto expert believes the pullback is revealing underlying strength, pointing to a structure that remains intact despite short-term pressure. Bitcoin Cycles Show Why Crypto Market Crashes Can Be Healthy The recent decline in the total crypto market cap, which pushed it down by about 46% from its $4.22 trillion peak, reflects a pattern that has often appeared before major rallies. Crypto enthusiast @DamiDefi drew attention to this, noting that similar pullbacks have historically occurred at key turning points, often just before strong upward moves begin. Related Reading: Will Ethereum Reach $250,000 Before Bitcoin? Here’s What Needs To Happen This observation is supported by the chart he shared. It shows the market returning to the $2.25 trillion zone, a level that has consistently acted as support since 2021. As @DamiDefi highlighted, the latest retest followed the same structure, with buyers stepping in once again to defend the level and limit further downside. This consistent reaction around the same zone strengthens the idea that the market still rests on solid foundations. The data further suggests that funds are not exiting the market entirely but are instead moving between assets. During periods like this, capital often shifts quietly into areas that have been overlooked or undervalued. In this way, the correction does more than reduce prices. It allows the market to reset, reposition, and rebuild strength more gradually. This process plays a key role in creating a more stable base for future growth while reducing the chances of fragile, short-lived rallies. Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance As Recovery Builds With support holding firm, attention is now turning to the next challenge, which @DamiDefi identified in his analysis. The market is currently trading around $2.58 trillion, a level that previously acted as resistance in both 2021 and 2024. This makes it a critical point in the current structure. Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH For the recovery to continue, this resistance needs to turn into support. A strong monthly close above $2.58 trillion would signal that buyers are gaining control again. If that happens, the next target lies between $3.5 trillion and $3.85 trillion, a zone where price faced rejection during the 2025 highs. There are already signs of momentum building. The monthly candle is up about 10.90%, and there is still time left before it closes. This steady upward movement, combined with the strong support at $2.25 trillion, suggests that Bitcoin’s crash from its ATH may have helped reset the market, allowing the price to rebuild with stronger conviction. Looking at the full picture, the decline from Bitcoin’s ATH appears to fit into a familiar cycle. As @DamiDefi highlighted, large pullbacks like this have often come before major rallies. With key support holding and resistance now in focus, the current phase may not be a setback, but a necessary step in Bitcoin’s broader growth cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Strategy’s preferred equity instrument, STRC, has been trading below its $100 par value — a detail that has quietly drawn attention from investors watching the company’s ability to keep funding its Bitcoin purchases. RR Saturn Steps In As Questions Mount The company behind the Bitcoin treasury strategy recently attracted fresh capital despite the uncertainty. Saturn, a STRC-backed yield provider, put $18 million into STRC, bringing its total investment to $33 million. The move came even as critics questioned whether demand for the instrument is strong enough to sustain Strategy’s aggressive acquisition pace. STRC offers holders a monthly payout with an annual return of 11.5%, and the funds raised through it go directly toward buying more Bitcoin. Still, the stock sitting below par has prompted questions. An account tracking STRC activity posted online over the weekend, estimating that the past week saw roughly zero Bitcoin purchased. “What will Monday’s 8-K confirm?” the post asked. The ₿eat Goes On. pic.twitter.com/tBDs2z0b4z — Michael Saylor (@saylor) April 26, 2026 That question may already have an answer in the works. Saylor Posts The Orange Dots — Again On Sunday, April 26, Michael Saylor posted on X with a simple message: “The Beat Goes On.” Attached was Strategy’s so-called “Orange Dots” chart, a visual record of every Bitcoin purchase the company has made. Based on past trends, the post is widely read as a signal that another acquisition announcement is coming. Strategy now holds more than 815,000 Bitcoin. Last Monday, the company added to that total with a $2.54 billion purchase, cementing its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. No other publicly traded company comes close. The title of Saylor’s post — “The Beat Goes On” — captures the tone he has maintained for years: steady accumulation, public signaling, and near-total indifference to critics. BTC Schiff Calls It A ‘Ponzi’ Scheme Peter Schiff, one of Bitcoin’s most vocal long-term critics, has been especially focused on STRC lately. He has called it “the most obvious Ponzi that has ever existed” and warned that the math behind the product doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. The claim that Bitcoin only has to rise by 2% per year to cover the 11.5% yield on $STRC indefinitely assumes $MSTR stops issuing STRC. But Saylor is actually increasing issuance. The more STRC MSTR sells, the more BTC must rise to cover the yield. Also, if the price of STRC… — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) April 25, 2026 His argument centers on the relationship between STRC issuance and Bitcoin’s price growth. According to Schiff, the claim that Bitcoin only needs to rise 2% annually to cover STRC’s 11.5% yield assumes the company stops issuing more STRC. RR If issuance grows, the required rate of Bitcoin appreciation rises with it. He also warned Saylor of potential lawsuits, saying the product’s marketing could be considered misleading. Schiff sees only one exit from what he calls a death spiral — canceling the dividend. But he says that move would itself trigger steep losses across STRC, Strategy’s stock, and Bitcoin prices. Strategy has not publicly responded to Schiff’s claims. Saylor, for his part, appears unmoved. The orange dots keep getting added to the chart. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin may be positioned for a sharp upside repricing if the network shows tangible progress on post-quantum security. Speaking on Bitcoin Suisse AG’s podcast with Dominic Weibel and Luca Gnos, Edwards argued that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance, weak sentiment and institutional hesitation suggest quantum risk may already be partly reflected in the market. Edwards framed the current setup as one of the strongest Bitcoin opportunity zones in months, but with a major caveat. In his view, Bitcoin has “completely flipped the script” after a nine-month downtrend, showing relative strength against equities and gold even as geopolitical risk, oil-market concerns and macro uncertainty remain elevated. “Bitcoin, which has been in a massive downtrend for the last nine months completely flipped the script in the last two, three weeks,” Edwards said. “Those are very strong signals that you usually only get every couple of years in my experience.” Quantum Risk Is Now Central To Bitcoin The central variable, according to Edwards, is no longer the traditional four-year cycle, miner supply or even short-term macro volatility. It is whether Bitcoin can show credible movement toward quantum-resistant signatures before the perceived threat window tightens further. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Renewed Demand From US Institutional Players — What’s Changing? Edwards said he remains constructive on Bitcoin as an investment because the asset has already been heavily discounted. But he was blunt about the longer-term risk if Bitcoin Core contributors and the broader ecosystem continue to treat quantum security as a distant issue. “I’m constructive and optimistic from an investor point of view because we had such a big discount,” he said. “Today it’s fully priced in the risk and more so. For me that means it’s a good opportunity in the near term.” That opportunity, however, is conditional. Edwards said his concern is that Bitcoin’s current cryptographic assumptions could become a live market issue before the network has completed the long process of developing, agreeing on and rolling out post-quantum upgrades. “If we do nothing for two years, I probably won’t have any Bitcoin,” Edwards said. “There is a time limit to some of this stuff.” Edwards criticized what he sees as complacency among parts of the Bitcoin development community. While he acknowledged that some preparatory work has been done, including references to BIP 360, he argued that Bitcoin still lacks a concrete migration path for post-quantum signatures and for coins that may remain exposed. “Some of the biggest core developers recently said it’s not even our top 100 priorities,” Edwards said. “And I’m just like, how? For me this is the only priority that Bitcoin should have. Nothing else matters.” Related Reading: Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Hitting $300,000-$500,000 By Late 2029 He said the technical problem is solvable, but not trivial. Post-quantum signature schemes can be larger, raising questions about block space, throughput, wallet migration and the treatment of dormant coins. Edwards also highlighted the unresolved issue of lost coins, including older outputs that could become vulnerable if sufficiently powerful quantum computers arrive before a network-wide transition. His base case is not that Bitcoin fails. Rather, he expects growing pressure from institutions, Ethereum’s quantum-readiness work and Bitcoin-focused companies to eventually force progress. He described any clear signal from major Bitcoin Core contributors that quantum resistance is becoming a serious priority as a potential catalyst. “As soon as there’s any traction from implementing code to improve Bitcoin, I think we’ll reprice higher and this risk goes away,” Edwards said. “If we get traction on quantum, we could have a new all-time high very quickly, I think. If we don’t, we may not get one.” Bitcoin Metrics Signal Value Beyond quantum, Edwards said several Capriole metrics point to Bitcoin trading in a deep value zone. He cited Capriole’s energy value model, which he said placed Bitcoin’s fair value around $115,000, implying roughly a 43% discount at the time of the discussion. He also pointed to discounted readings across metrics such as dynamic range NVT, Yardstick, MVRV Z-score and miner-related indicators. Still, Edwards stressed that mining metrics matter less than they once did. In his framework, institutional demand from ETFs and treasury companies has become the dominant supply-demand force. He said institutional buying had recently turned positive again, while long-term holder supply was beginning to rise after a long period of selling. That combination, he argued, is consistent with seller exhaustion. It also helps explain why Bitcoin has held up despite weak sentiment. For the near term, Edwards pointed to $71,000 as a key level and said Bitcoin could move toward $80,000 to $82,000 if current strength holds. A weekly or monthly close below $71,000, he said, would challenge that setup. At press time, BTC traded at $77,629. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is heading into a rare macro window where the first reaction may age fast. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude its April meeting on April 29, with the FOMC decision and press conference landing that afternoon. The next morning, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the first quarter GDP and […]
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Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $78,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $79,200 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $76,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $78,250 and $77,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes More Gains Bitcoin price found support near $77,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $77,500 and $78,000 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $78,500. A high was formed at $79,480, and the price started a consolidation phase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $77,145 swing low to the $79,480 high. The bulls are now active above $78,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $78,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $78,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,500 level. A close above the $79,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $80,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $81,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,600 level. The first major support is near the $78,300 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $77,145 swing low to the $79,480 high and the trend line at $78,250. The next support is now near the $77,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $76,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $78,250, followed by $77,250. Major Resistance Levels – $79,500 and $80,000.
According to an on-chain analyst, Bitcoin has been witnessing a shift in investor behavior in one of its major markets, the United States. This shift in its market dynamics, according to the market pundit, might be key to sustaining the flagship cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally. Coinbase Premium Flips Positive Following Prolonged Weakness In the 25th April post on X, Darkfost highlighted that the US institutional and professional investors are back in the Bitcoin market, with the price seemingly poised to climb further. The relevant indicator here is the Hourly Coinbase Premium metric. Related Reading: The Ethereum Golden Triangle That Has Predicted Every Move Shows Where Price Is Headed For context, this metric tracks the hourly price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance to indicate whether institutional-driven demand is pushing prices higher, as opposed to retail-driven markets. Importantly, the version of the Coinbase Premium Index being analyzed is volume-weighted. This means that larger trades carry more influence in the calculation, helping to filter out market “noise.” Darkfost noted that the Coinbase Premium Index is moderately positive. However, what’s notable about the shift is that this trend towards the positive has been ongoing since the beginning of April — and, interestingly, it started after a prolonged period spent in negative territory. In essence, this shift suggests that Bitcoin is trading at a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance. By extension, this trend often signals stronger institutional involvement, as Coinbase is typically preferred by US-based institutions and professional investors. This is because, while Binance remains one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, it is generally seen as more accessible to retail traders. Coinbase, on the other hand, has a reputation for catering to institutional clients and for offering regulatory clarity and infrastructure for large-scale investors. As such, Coinbase price premiums are often viewed as a means to gauge institutional sentiment. Coinbase Premium Could Sustain BTC Bullish Momentum Darkfost further explained that this renewed buying pressure from US investors is coming at a critical time for the market. This is supported by historical data: rallies driven by institutional demand tend to be more stable than those driven mostly by retail speculation. However, since the Coinbase Premium Index has yet to fully switch to an uptrend, it is advisable to watch for clear signs rather than randomly get tangled in the fray. As such, Darkfost mentioned that, instead of merely Bitcoin’s price, he would also be watching for the index’s further upside. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $77,525, with CoinGecko data showing the premier cryptocurrency has barely moved on a daily basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Double Down On Bearish Bets Amid Consolidation – What This Means For Price Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A Hong Kong-listed company wants to attract more than 10,000 BTC into a regulated asset management strategy, a target worth roughly $760 million at current prices. While the number itself is jaw-dropping, it's the strategy's structure that reveals the true scope of this plan. Hong Kong is trying to become a place where large pools […]
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Bitcoin has spent April staging a recovery from its March lows, briefly climbing back above $79,000. However, not everyone is convinced of the rebound, and some analysts believe the move is only a mid-bear-market rally before a deeper correction. One such analyst is one that previously predicted a coming peak in July 2025. Now, the same analyst is predicting how far the Bitcoin price still has to fall before it puts in a true bottom. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Analyst Uses Previous Top Model To Predict Bitcoin Bottom Crypto analyst Killa made a cycle-top prediction of $121,362 back in June 2025. This call was made months before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and it was off by only about 3.9%. Now, using the same analytical framework that generated that call, Killa has turned the model toward the downside. The principle behind the projection is that each successive Bitcoin market cycle produces a smaller multiple relative to the prior cycle’s bottom, reflecting the maturation of the asset. His data across five cycles shows the high-to-bottom multiple declining from 15.50x in the first cycle to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and then 4.47x in Cycle 4, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 before bottoming at $15,600. Applying the same rate of reduction, Killa projects the current cycle’s multiple at 3.25x, dividing the $126,100 cycle top to arrive at a base bottom target of $38,800. To account for the 5% variance that offset his top prediction, he added in two upside scenarios of $40,740 and $42,680. Even at the top of that range, Bitcoin would still be well below the $60,000 level that some market participants have cited as the correction bottom. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @KillaXBT On X At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,015, meaning a move to $42,680 would still require a drop of about 45%, while a further drop to $38,800 would be close to a 50% correction from current prices. Three Years Up, One Year Down Killa’s bottom projection finds support from a separate analysis by analyst CryptoBullet, who approached the question of a bottom from a symmetry standpoint. CryptoBullet’s weekly Bitcoin chart characterized the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave advance beginning in late 2022, with Wave 5 completing around the $126,000 high in October 2025. The subsequent correction, labeled as a W-X-Y corrective structure in blue, projects a final Wave Y leg down below $50,000 to $45,000. Bitcoin Weekly Chart. Source: @CryptoBullet1 On X Related Reading: XRP Signals Imminent Breakout — Is A 10% Rally Coming? According to the analyst, three years of upward price action from the November 2022 bottom through the 2025 peak cannot reasonably be corrected in less than a year of decline. The current bear phase is shown extending into the second half of 2026 before the bottom structure can be completed. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to a crypto analyst, the Bitcoin price remains firmly in a bear trend and could be preparing for another major crash to new lows. Using a wave structure, the expert mapped out BTC’s price action during this bearish phase, outlining how he sees the current market developing and where he believes the next downside move could lead. Contrary to other analysts’ predictions, the analyst believes that BTC has not yet reached its cycle bottom and may first see a final surge before plunging below $40,000. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Price Could Rebound To $80,000 Before A Final Crash Market analyst Crypto Bullet has presented a bearish BTC forecast on X, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have more declines ahead before the current bear market ends. In his analysis, he described BTC’s market structure as a “Double ZigZag (WXY)” formation, using it to track the cryptocurrency’s price action from its October 2025 peak and project where the next major decline could unfold. One reason Crypto Bullet views BTC’s bear market through this WXY structure is because of how the cryptocurrency has traded in recent months. He noted that Bitcoin has spent far more time consolidating between $62,000 and $78,000 than it did in the $84,000 to $97,000 range, where it traded from November 2025 to January 2026. To him, that prolonged sideways movement reflects a broader bearish structure still playing out. Based on that setup, Crypto Bullet believes that BTC’s recent rebound above $78,000 does not mean its bear market has ended but could instead be part of a larger corrective move. He expects the cryptocurrency to make one final push higher toward $85,000, with this level as the next major resistance above his ABC target of $82,500, as highlighted on his chart. Crypto Bullet has tied this outlook to his WXY wave structure. According to him, Bitcoin completed wave W after peaking above $126,000 in October 2025 and plunging to $60,000 in February 2026. He noted that wave X also began after BTC reached $60,000 and projected it could end once the cryptocurrency rallies above $80,000. If that scenario plays out, Crypto Bullet expects wave Y as the final leg low, which is where he believes BTC could eventually find a bottom. In terms of timing, the analyst believes that BTC still has five months left before its bear market ends, which closely aligns with timelines from past bear cycles. Analyst Marks BTC Bottom Target At $40,000 Crypto Bullet’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin centers on wave Y, which he believes could bring the most severe downturn of this cycle. According to him, once Bitcoin completes its rebound above $80,000 in wave X, the market could reverse sharply, triggering a rapid price crash toward a final bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Big Players Are Accumulating — Is $80K Just The Start? He marked BTC’s potential bottom target at $40,000, expecting the move to play out between September and October 2026. From the $80,000 level, this would represent a whopping 50% decline, potentially wiping out bullish traders who had interpreted the surge to $80,000 as the start of a new bullish trend. Supporting this outlook, crypto analyst Tony Severino said he believes this could be the most likely scenario for BTC. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is currently showing a structure that often precedes sharp volatility, with liquidity building above key levels while price consolidates below. This kind of setup typically signals that the market may first move to hunt those liquidity zones before establishing its next clear directional trend. Bitcoin Builds Liquidity Cluster Around $80K Zone Crypto analyst Cryptorphic noted that Bitcoin is once again building a dense cluster of liquidity around the $80,000 level. This area is becoming increasingly important, as leveraged positions continue to stack above current price action, creating a potential target zone for the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 At present, Bitcoin is trading below this liquidity pocket and moving within a relatively compressed range, reflecting indecision in the market, where price consolidates before a larger expansion. Historically, similar setups have frequently led to liquidity sweeps as the market seeks out areas of unfilled orders. These liquidity zones tend to act like magnets, drawing price toward them as stop-losses and liquidation points accumulate. With so much interest positioned around $80,000, the upside liquidity becomes a natural target if momentum shifts even slightly in favor of buyers. The broader implication is that Bitcoin may first attempt to sweep this $80,000 zone or reach that liquidity level and react from it before any sustained directional move becomes clear. Markets Move In Two Clear Phases According to the analyst Mags, the market moves through two distinct phases. The first being the Bull Phase, Mags highlights that while the primary trend is upward, it is never a straight line to the top. Instead, price action is characterized by multiple pullbacks, often ranging from 20% to 30%, which occur before a cycle peak is reached. These corrections are presented not as threats, but as a normal and necessary part of every cycle‘s journey, resting sentiment, and fueling continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Short-Term Pullback Following Price Rebound — Analyst The second stage identified by Mags is the Bear Phase, which is triggered when the underlying market structure finally breaks. This shift leads to a much deeper correction than the standard pullbacks seen during the ascent. During this period, the market undergoes a process of finding a definitive bottom, clearing the stage for the next trend to begin. Ultimately, Mags argues that while the phases transition, the presence of volatility is the one that never changes. The difference between success and failure lies in the ability to recognize your current position within the cycle. As Mags points out, history has consistently rewarded those who can ignore the noise of short-term swings and focus on the long-term game, recognizing that each phase is simply a part of the market’s natural rhythm. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Just as investors were trying to steady the 2026 rate outlook, the oil market handed the Federal Reserve a fresh inflation problem. The Fed meets on April 28 and 29. On April 30, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to publish the advance estimate for first quarter GDP alongside March personal income […]
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Crypto market sentiment shifted from “extreme pessimism” to “ultra FOMO mode” in just three days — and analysts say that kind of rapid swing is exactly what makes the current Bitcoin moment worth watching closely. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Whales Load Up As Price Pushes Higher Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment shows Bitcoin wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added roughly 41,000 coins since April 10 — a haul worth approximately $3.17 billion. The buying has come as Bitcoin climbed toward $80,000, a price level the asset hasn’t touched since late January. On Wednesday, BTC briefly hit $79,330 before pulling back to around $77,350. ???? The Bitcoin crowd has swung from extreme pessimism (on Monday) to ultra FOMO mode (on Thursday). Just as $BTC looked like it was going to freefall after an $80K rejection and FUD trickled in (a clear buy signal), prices quickly rallied to above $78.7K today. Now that $80K is… pic.twitter.com/AsDSovpA95 — Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 23, 2026 Santiment flagged the accumulation trend on X, saying Bitcoin’s key stakeholders are “accumulating rapidly.” The firm also noted that smaller holders — those with less than 0.1 BTC — picked up about 46 coins over the same stretch, valued at roughly $3.56 million. The gap between those two figures tells a story: the big players are moving in size while retail activity stays comparatively quiet. ???? Bitcoin’s key stakeholders are accumulating rapidly with $BTC currently up to $78.3K and crypto’s top cap up +15% in April. ???? According to our on-chain data: ???????? 10-10K BTC Wallets have collectively accumulated 40,967 more $BTC in the past 2 weeks (+0.3%) ???????? Less Than… pic.twitter.com/ViffTAQg4Q — Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 23, 2026 The Setup Analysts Are Watching According to Santiment, the most encouraging scenario would be one where large holders keep buying while smaller investors start cashing out. Reports from the firm describe that pattern as one of the strongest indicators that a prolonged price rally could be taking shape. Analysts have historically tracked this kind of divergence between whale behavior and retail activity as a potential precursor to sustained price gains. On the institutional side, Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said demand from large professional investors is “clearly accelerating.” His comments, posted on X Friday, line up with a broader trend of institutional money flowing back into Bitcoin after months of uncertainty. GM from Switzerland! US spot bitcoin ETFs have purchased 18,991 $BTC over the past 5 trading days. *checks numbers* That’s 9 x times the new supply in that period. Institutional demand for #bitcoin is clearly accelerating. pic.twitter.com/VtzVyjQAJu — André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) April 24, 2026 Fear Still Grips The Wider Market Despite the whale activity and the burst of optimism among Bitcoin holders, the broader crypto market hasn’t caught up. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index — a widely followed measure of overall market sentiment — posted a score of 39 on Friday, placing it squarely in “Fear” territory. That reading suggests most investors are still holding back, even as Bitcoin inches toward a psychologically significant price point. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert Santiment says a move above $80,000 would carry weight in pulling more traders back into the market. But the firm also cautioned that the breakout would carry more meaning if it happens after optimism cools slightly. A surge built on peak excitement, reports indicate, tends to be less stable than one that forms more gradually. Bitcoin is up 2% over the past week, based on Coingecko data. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a crucial level as support, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the flagship cryptocurrency have registered their best performance since the October market crash. Related Reading: Eric Trump Calls Justin Sun’s Lawsuit ‘Ridiculous’ As WLFI Hits New All-Time Low Bitcoin ETFs ‘Back In The High Life’ US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their positive streak to eight days after pulling in $223.2 million on Thursday, signaling strong demand for the investment products as the crypto market recovers. The BTC-based funds have been consistently seeing positive net flows since April 14, recording $2.09 billion in inflows during this period, according to SoSoValue data. This marks the category’s strongest performance across multiple timeframes since its late September-early October nine-day streak, when the products saw roughly $5.33 billion in inflows. In the weekly and monthly timeframes, Bitcoin ETFs are currently recording their best performance of 2026, tying March’s four-week streak but nearly doubling the monthly inflows, with $2.43 billion in April so far and four more days to go. Market observer Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that sustained institutional demand is building again, highlighting that the products are about to close their second green month of 2026, and the first two-month streak since October 2025. Similarly, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Erich Balchunas affirmed that Bitcoin ETF flows are “back in the high life” as every single tracking period turns positive and cumulative net inflows hit $58.33 billion. “Every single rolling period we track is now positive, haven’t seen that in months (IBIT’s $3b is in Top 1% of all ETFs). Still tho, need a couple bil more to get back to breaking new ground in cumulative lifetime flows (62.8b),” he wrote on X. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Bitcoin ETFs’ performance comes as the flagship cryptocurrency continues to reject from a key resistance area. In a recent analysis, Rekt Capital said that while BTC’s price enjoys upside momentum, the key levels haven’t changed yet. Notably, BTC’s 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located around $78,000, remains an important resistance level as the cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim it on the weekly timeframe. “If BTC Weekly Closes above the 21-week EMA, then it would be worth watching for whether the EMA can be reclaimed as support,” the analyst affirmed, adding that level tends to serve as resistance in bear markets. On the contrary, if BTC is unable to reclaim this level as support, it could push BTC’s price into a post-breakout retest of its Double Bottom pattern. Last week, Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had broken out of a Double Bottom formation, which could lead to a measured move toward the $81,000-$82,500 area. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ As Price Eyes $2,450 Resistance – Breakout Loading? Now, he has asserted that the “Double Bottom formation top could always become a post-breakout retesting zone in the event of rejection from the EMA.” In addition, he emphasized that BTC remains below the base of the macro triangle formation it broke down from in late January. Historically, Bitcoin has not been able to reclaim a macro triangle during a bear market once the price breaks down. If this trend continues, the analyst warned, then the flagship crypto could see limited additional upside toward the pattern’s base before resuming its correction toward the market bottom. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Veteran trader Peter Brandt is sketching out a highly conditional long-term path for Bitcoin that points to a potential peak between $300,000 and $500,000 in late 2029, even as he argues the market still has not produced the kind of action that typically marks a durable bottom. In a post on X, Brandt wrote: “Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.” Thus, Brandt the target to a single condition: that Bitcoin continues to respect the cyclical behavior he says has defined the asset over roughly the last decade and a half. That leaves the near-term setup doing a lot of work. Before any 2029 blow-off scenario comes into view, Brandt is signaling that the current structure still looks incomplete. Why Brandt Is Not Calling A Bitcoin Bottom Yet That skepticism came through more clearly in his reaction to a chart posted by JDK Analysis. Brandt’s reply was blunt: “This does not look like a bottom.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery May Not Arrive Until October, Scaramucci Says JDK’s chart argued that the recent advance has the character of a “Short Re-Accumulation,” but only in a probabilistic sense. The analyst wrote, “As long as bulls fail to show clear strength and follow-through, the current low does not qualify as a strong bottom. This is purely a probabilistic view!” The setup highlighted repeated tests of local highs, fading volume as price pushed higher, and an invalidation level above roughly $80.5K, while suggesting continuation lower remained the more likely path if buyers failed to force a clean break. Brandt also amplified renowned chartist Aksel Kibar, calling him “the most accomplished pure classical chart analyst alive today.” Kibar’s read on the market was less about prediction than process, but the message was similar: technical structures are provisional until price confirms them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally “Sometimes I get criticized by followers who have a position and want to see updates confirming that position on ‘adjusting’ the boundaries,” Kibar wrote. “Well, as the market offers new information we need to adjust. We can’t be dogmatic about our analysis. What looks like a wedge, can morph into a channel. What looks like a bearish continuation can break above the channel boundary requiring action.” That comment was attached to a BTC chart showing exactly that kind of morphing structure. What had previously looked like a rising wedge was reinterpreted as a more clearly defined channel, with several rejections at the upper boundary. The chart also shows Bitcoin still trading below an ascending resistance line and below the 365-day average near $87,000, with the late-February washout toward $60,000 followed by a rebound into the upper-$70,000 area. Nearby levels around $76,500, $72,000 and the low-$80,000s appeared central to the current battle. At press time, BTC traded at $78,196. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Analytics firm Santiment has pointed out how bullish sentiment among social media users has seen a sharp spike alongside the latest Bitcoin rally. Bitcoin Has Observed A Surge In The Positive/Negative Sentiment According to data from Santiment, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has crossed into the FOMO zone for Bitcoin recently. The “Positive/Negative Sentiment” here refers to an indicator that compares the bullish and bearish sentiment toward a given asset that’s currently present on the major social media platforms. The metric works by putting social media posts/messages/threads containing mentions of the asset through a machine-learning model to separate between positive and negative posts. Then, it counts the number of posts in each category and finds the ratio between them. Related Reading: Dogecoin Keeps Getting Capped At This Parallel Channel Level, Analyst Says When the value of the Positive/Negative Sentiment is greater than 1, it means a bullish sentiment is reflected by the majority of social media posts. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold implies the dominance of a bearish mentality. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment witnessed a sharp plunge last weekend as the cryptocurrency’s price pulled back from its high above $78,000. At its lowest, the metric went all the way down into what Santiment defines as the FUD zone. What followed the intense bearish sentiment among social media users was a turnaround for BTC. The asset behaving in the way that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority has actually been a pattern that’s often been observed in the past. Generally, the likelihood of an opposite move goes up the more sure that the crowd becomes. Inside the FUD zone, the traders’ bearish expectation can be strong enough to make bottoms likely. From the chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin’s turnaround has been accompanied by a sentiment swing in the opposite direction. As BTC has approached the $80,000 mark, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has spiked into the FOMO zone. The analytics firm noted: Prices can continue to rally, and a breach above this resistance level would be massive in bringing in new and returning traders. However, it will ideally happen when optimism calms down just slightly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will develop in the near future and whether the current degree of greed on social media will influence its trajectory. BTC Price Bitcoin has observed its rally stall since its brief venture above the $79,000 mark, a potential sign that the contrarian effect of trader sentiment may already be in action. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin may be entering a familiar but often misunderstood stage of the market cycle. Even as price action shows resilience, derivatives positioning tells a different story, with funding rates remaining bearish and suggesting many traders are still positioned defensively or betting against sustained upside. Comparing Current Conditions To Previous Bitcoin Recoveries Bitcoin has now entered a disbelief phase as funding rates stay bearish. Analyst Darkfost has highlighted on X that funding rates have remained negative even as the BTC price continues to move higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 Meanwhile, this BTC chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30-day cumulative evolution of the funding rates on Binance, offering a clearer view of when funding rates entered a sustained negative trend. The indicator currently sits around -4.5%, underscoring how aggressively traders have continued betting against the market in recent months. For comparison, when BTC began emerging from the bear market in late 2022, funding rates on Binance fell even further, reaching nearly -7% on a 30-day sun basis. Whenever such a strong consensus formed, it would help create a bottom and fuel the rally that was beginning to develop. According to Darkfost, despite the market entering a phase of disbelief, traders still prefer to fight the trend rather than follow it. A trader known as Max Traders on X has also noted that Bitcoin funding rates haven’t been this negative in a long while. Historically, such extremes typically emerge when the market crowd is heavily positioned to one side. Despite BTC’s recent strength, many participants are positioning for a reversal, even as price action continues to suggest a strong short bias. However, this kind of crowded positioning often creates the opposite conditions for moves in that direction. Thus, if BTC price manages to maintain its current levels or push higher, the buildup of short positions could trigger a squeeze that would accelerate the move upward. The Conditions That Could Lead To A Bitcoin Reversal Bitcoin’s recent upside has been largely driven by institutional spot buying pressure over the last few weeks, with each major move higher supported by strong inflows visible in spot volume data. Crypto trader CGT Trader explained that the Coinbase Premium Index has also confirmed the same trend, which recorded a significant spike in institutional demand at the recent local top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 Since then, the BTC price has continued to grind higher, but the institutional spot buying has failed to make a new high. This creates a growing divergence that suggests a potential reversal. However, if this downtrend continues and large players start selling, the move could be retraced much faster than the recent upward rally. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price fails to break above the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market stuck in this range, attention is shifting to the possibility that Bitcoin could finally shift direction, potentially ending the current compression. A major part of this discussion is the CME gap around $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing over periods when traditional trading is closed, such as weekends, while crypto trades continuously. Drop To $60,000 Still On The Table Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on its 12-hour chart. The expectation being highlighted is that over $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level. Even with that strong technical catalyst, Fencer also warned that the outcome may not remain purely bullish. He cautioned that the move could set up a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? The broader consequence could be a decline toward February lows around $60,000. If that scenario plays out, it would imply roughly a 26% retrace from that level, potentially reigniting bearish sentiment across the market. However, another perspective is coming from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional argues for a different outlook, contesting the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past week is driven only by leverage. The report frames the rally as potentially stronger than it looks, pointing to real demand rather than simply borrowing and forced positioning. What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally? The study lists several indicators supporting its view. Rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are said to be near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand. It also notes accumulation by long-term holders, which is described as concentrating supply into “strong hands.” While short liquidations can help trigger upward momentum, the report argues that similar squeezes have historically happened before—yet sustained rallies tend to last when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside A key area highlighted by the institutional framing is approximately $80,000, described as the short-term holder cost basis. According to this interpretation, reclaiming around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening. If Bitcoin fails and rejects that level, the implication would be that weakness could persist rather than a durable uptrend forming. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been dwindling massively in recent days. Coins are moving off exchanges at a steady pace, removing available supply ready for purchase. Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline and are moving into stronger hands. On the other hand, data tracking the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit shows that only about half of the addresses are in profit. Bitcoin Is Disappearing From Exchange Order Books CryptoQuant data tracking Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms shows the aggregate balance has fallen to approximately 2.671 million BTC as of April 24. Notably, reserves in exchanges have fallen from 2.68 million BTC on April 19, with the sharpest leg of the drawdown occurring during Bitcoin’s price climb above $77,700. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Whenever Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces the liquid supply available for immediate selling. This kind of supply reduction will always support price strength, especially when there is enough demand. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued falling throughout the cycle, even as prices corrected. However, perhaps the most telling development lies in how Bitcoin ownership is changing beneath the surface. CryptoQuant’s STH/LTH Supply vs. ETF Flows data, which tracks 30-day position changes across participant cohorts, reveals a decisive redistribution of Bitcoin ownership from weaker hands to stronger ones. Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have added 303,000 BTC to their positions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 16,800 BTC in inflows. Strategy has also added 53,000 BTC to its holdings over the same period. Meanwhile, short-term holders, the cohort most sensitive to price movements and most likely to sell into strength or panic on weakness, have reduced their aggregate position by about 290,000 BTC. Only Half Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit Even as Bitcoin is being taken off crypto exchanges, profitability metrics show a more subdued outlook of how many investors are currently making money. On-chain data shows the seven-day moving average of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is currently at 52.3%, according to insights from The Block. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell At its peak, above $126,000 in October 2025, 99.66% of the supply was in profit. The drop to near 50% is a reflection of the impact of the correction that followed, bringing a large portion of the market back to breakeven levels. Still, Bitcoin’s recent rally above $77,000 pushed many more holders into profit. Only about 44.1% of the Bitcoin supply was held in profit on April 2. Readings above 90% are a reflection of late-stage bull markets. Therefore, based on that context, the current reading of 52.3% can be viewed through a bullish lens. The three data streams (declining exchange reserves, net accumulation by long-term holders and institutions) and a supply-in-profit reading at the midpoint show Bitcoin is currently in a period of consolidation. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Etherealize, an institutional adoption and advocacy group backed by the Ethereum Foundation, has made a bold prediction, suggesting that ETH could one day reach $250,000 before Bitcoin (BTC). The group said that if Ethereum can capture a share of the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, the upside could be massive. That target is significantly higher than ETH’s current price of around $2,300, and would require a major shift in how global markets value the cryptocurrency. It would also mean Ethereum could become more than a smart contract chain and grow into a top store of value, similar to Bitcoin. How Ethereum Could Hit $250,000 Before Bitcoin In an X post, Etherealize published a detailed report outlining the factors that could push Ethereum toward the ambitious $250,000 valuation. For Ethereum to reach that price level, the group suggested that the cryptocurrency would need to be treated as a global monetary asset. That means pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks, and public firms would need to buy and hold ETH at scale rather than relying solely on Bitcoin. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts A 30% Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000, Here’s When Etherealize also pointed to supply dynamics as a major factor that could support price growth. The group explained that when ETH is staked or locked, fewer coins trade freely on the market. As a result, if demand rises while liquidity remains tight, upward price pressure could build more quickly, driving ETH higher. Beyond supply-and-demand trends, Etherealize also identified Ethereum’s ability to generate yield as a key driver of price growth. They noted that, unlike BTC, Ethereum can offer staking rewards to holders. Therefore, if global investors begin to view ETH as both a growth asset and an income-producing asset, it could strengthen its appeal as a long-term holding. Over time, the growing demand for cryptocurrency could fuel an upward momentum that could propel it toward the projected $250,000 target. ETH Price Outlook Dependent On Global Monetary Value According to Etherealize, price action alone would not be enough to carry Ethereum to a $250,000 valuation. Instead, the group noted that that ambitious target depends on Ethereum capturing the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, which is about $31 trillion. Etherealize argued that if Ethereum were to acquire part of that value, and move it across its roughly 121 million circulating supply, it could support a much higher valuation over time. Once this happens, they noted that Ethereum could begin competing for existing global stores of value. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Cycle Is Different: Crypto Expert Reveals When Price Will Cross $100,000 Again Etherealize also highlighted Ethereum’s role as a programmable blockchain that already supports a wide range of activity. In addition to being a payments currency, the crypto network also enables stablecoin issuance and real-world asset tokenization. This existing use case could also be a potential driver for ETH’s price. Ultimately, Ethereum reaching $250,000 before Bitcoin is still a long shot. However, Etherealize believes that if ETH can become the base layer for global finance, attract sustained institutional demand, and capture value currently stored in gold and Bitcoin, that ambitious target could move from pure speculation to a possible long-term outcome. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com