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According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, much of the crypto complex already went through a down cycle last year even though headline coins looked steadier. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures He points to heavy buying from ETFs and companies that kept Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP from showing the full brunt of those losses. Some tokens, without that same support, fell hard — in many cases by about 50%–60% — and behaved like past bear phases. Institutional Buying Accelerates Hougan Says ETF flows and corporate accumulation have shifted the balance. When institutions buy more than new supply, price pressure changes. That is what he highlights. “We ran the four-year cycle last year,” Hougan said. “We’re already at the bottom. I think we’re coming back up.” ETF purchases and corporate hoarding at times outpaced newly mined Bitcoin, creating a persistent bid under the market. Reports note the comparison to gold, where steady central bank buying first steadied prices and later helped fuel much bigger moves. “Just like gold eventually entered a parabolic move, Bitcoin will follow suit,” Hougan said. We’re just earlier in that process.” A Selective Altcoin Cycle Expected Investors are getting pickier. The next up-cycle, according to this view, will reward projects with clear use and steady activity, not every token with hype. Networks tied to stablecoins, tokenization, and real infrastructure work stand a better chance of drawing capital. Lower-quality projects that lack users or clear purpose could see little interest and remain sidelined. Bitcoin Price Action In the middle of these structural shifts, Bitcoin’s price has kept traders busy. Recently BTC slid from earlier peaks to roughly 60,000–65,000 before finding buyers and moving back above 65,000 amid a broader rebound. Geopolitical headlines pushed risk appetite up and down, and those swings helped produce one of Bitcoin’s rougher stretches in weeks. Reports say traders are watching headlines closely because news can prompt sudden outsized moves. Related Reading: Bitcoin Edges Past Gold In Appeal, JPMorgan Says A Slow Transfer From Old Hands To New Buyers Long-term holders are selling some coins while institutions move in. That hand-off can feel messy. A sale wall forms when investors who bought early decide to take profit, and large institutions step in to absorb that supply. That process has been observed in other asset classes as they mature, and it does not automatically mean demand is weakening over the long run. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has continued to decline recently, with its value now hitting the lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Deep Inside Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tracks the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Loss Nears $900 Million, Highest Since FTX Crash The index determines the trader mentality using the data of the following five factors: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it makes use of a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the indicator is above 53, it means the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. On the other hand, the metric being under 47 suggests the dominance of fear. Naturally, the index lying between these two cutoffs implies a neutral mentality is shared by the majority. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ regions called the extreme fear (25 and below) and extreme greed (above 75). After the recent market downturn, sentiment among cryptocurrency traders has deteriorated into the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 9 at the moment, which is a pretty low level. In fact, this level is so deep into extreme fear that this is the first time in the current cycle that the metric has reached it. Below is a chart that shows how the current level of extreme fear lines up against the indicator’s historical data. From the graph, it’s visible that the last time the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reached a value this low was back in June 2022, right in the middle of that year’s bear market. The latest drop in the metric to a single-digit value is a result of the price drawdown that BTC and other cryptocurrencies have faced since the last week of January. This decline in sentiment, however, may not be such a bad thing for the sector, if history is to go by. Often, an extremely fearful market facilitates bottom formations as underwater investors capitulate and resolute hands pick up their coins. During a bear market, however, the Fear & Greed Index is usually inside the zone for a notable duration before a bottom is reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours If the recent shift in the sector reflects a transition to a bear market, then it only remains to be seen how long mood will be in extreme fear before relief arrives for Bitcoin and company. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,100, down 19% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle.  Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov  According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026.  What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin experienced a steep decline over the last 24 hours, pushing its price to approximately $60,000 amid an accelerated selloff comparable to the 2022 FTX collapse. BTC had recovered to $69,800 as of press time, according to CryptoSlate data. Still, Glassnode data helped frame the extent to which the price had slipped relative to widely […]
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Loss has spiked to its highest level since November 2022 as investors have capitulated after the price crash. Bitcoin Realized Loss Has Hit A Value Of $889 Million In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that investors on the network are ‘realizing’ with their transactions. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold to see at what price it changed hands before this. If the previous selling price was greater than the latest spot price for any token, then its sale is considered to be resulting in some loss realization. The exact degree of loss involved in the transaction is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss sums up this value for all loss transfers to find the total for the network. A counterpart indicator called the Realized Profit deals with the transactions of the opposite type (that is, those with a cost basis lower than the latest selling value). Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Loss has witnessed a sharp spike recently, implying investors have participated in a notable amount of loss-taking. Something to note is that the version of the metric used by the analytics firm here is the “entity-adjusted” one, meaning that it only tracks transactions occurring between two different entities, rather than just two addresses. Glassnode defines an “entity” to be a cluster of addresses that it has determined to belong to the same owner. In the context of the Realized Loss, the entity-adjusted indicator filters out transactions occurring between the wallets of the same investor. These naturally never involve a true realization of loss (or profit), so removing them from the data provides a more accurate representation of the market. Applying for this filtration, the 7-day MA Realized Loss hit a peak value of $889 million on Wednesday. This is the highest single-day spike in the metric since November 2022, when the market crashed to the bear market bottom following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The latest investor capitulation has arrived as Bitcoin has been in freefall, with its price now breaking below the $70,000 level. It now remains to be seen whether the loss-taking will sustain or if investor panic will subside in the coming days. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken a blow of more than 21% over the past week that has taken its price to the $66,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s market shook hard on a single day of trading, sending prices tumbling to $65,000 and nerves flaring. Reports note the move wiped out a big chunk of recent gains and pushed many recent buyers into loss. Price action this sharp rarely comes without a story behind it — and this one had several threads pulling at once. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands Bitcoin: Capitulation And Selling Pressure According to Glassnode, the spike in forced sales is one of the biggest seen in about two years. Traders who had used borrowed money were hit first. Liquidations swept through positions, and many coins moved from hands that bought recently to hands that sold quickly. Realized losses climbed to the highest levels since late 2022, with close to $890 million a day recorded on a seven-day average. The sell-off unfolded over roughly 10 hours of intense trading, with panic and program trades both playing a role. The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling. These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.… pic.twitter.com/mcvVqXJcYq — glassnode (@glassnode) February 5, 2026 Prices Fall Below Buyer Cost Lines Reports say Bitcoin’s market price has fallen under several on-chain cost markers that many investors watch. Short-term buyers who picked up coins in recent months now sit below their purchase price. That creates a kind of pressure where emotional selling can feed into more selling. Active investor costs and broader market averages were all above the spot price, which made the slide feel deeper. When a market drops under the average cost of recent buyers, volatility tends to rise and traders begin hunting for the next reliable support. News Flow And Timing The move comes after a run of strong gains earlier in the year. Price was last at these levels back in November 2024, just before US President Donald Trump won his reelection. That timing put the fall in sharper relief for some observers who had started to see those prior highs as a fresh floor. Headlines and big trades added friction to the market. Social chatter and rapid shifts in order books amplified selling, and some long-term holders did move to lock in gains or cut risk. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures What The Numbers Tell Us Based on on-chain measures, the recent drop forced a large group of holders to realize losses, not just paper losses but actual transactions where coins left wallets at a lower price than they were bought. That kind of clearing can remove built-up leverage and leave a cleaner market on the other side. It also leaves fewer buyers near current levels, which means rebounds can be choppy and uneven. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The debate over whether the XRP price could reach $10,000 has reignited in the crypto market. However, this time, one crypto analyst challenges the common argument that market capitalization could limit XRP’s growth. According to the analyst, this claim is flawed and does not take into context XRP’s liquidity and utility as a global settlement currency.  Why Market Cap Does Not Limit Price Surge To $10,000 Some critics argue that XRP would never hit $10,000 because doing so would make its market capitalization exceed the global money supply. Market analyst Crypto_Luke has addressed this misconception in a recent X post, emphasizing that market cap does not limit the XRP price in any way.  Related Reading: Expert Explains Why The Market Cap Theory Doesn’t Apply To XRP The analyst explained that market cap is simply the last traded price multiplied by a cryptocurrency’s circulating supply, which is a snapshot of overall trading activity and not a reflection of how much money is required to achieve a certain price. He noted that the common criticism that market capitalization represents the amount of money invested in an asset is inaccurate.  One reason Crypto_Luke believes the market cap argument is flawed is that it fails to account for how XRP operates. Unlike assets designed primarily for storing value, such as BTC, XRP is designed for rapid liquidity and settlement across global corridors. He stated that XRP can be used multiple times in a single day, facilitating transactions without requiring additional capital. As a result, he suggests that XRP’s price is determined by its “actively traded float,” rather than by the total supply that is idle.   In his analysis, Crypto_Luke emphasized that liquidity and price adjustments go hand-in-hand in XRP’s design. He explained that assets that move quickly through settlements allow the blockchain network to satisfy demand without requiring equivalent dollar-for-dollar backing. As XRP’s transaction volume increases, its price naturally adjusts to reflect the value of its utility rather than a fixed market cap.  The analyst noted that XRP’s supply was intentionally designed to be large, fixed, and non-reissuable. This structure supports a multi-trillion-dollar liquidity pool and enables the network to handle high-volume settlement throughput.  XRP Market Cap Crashes Nearly 10% More recently, XRP faces additional downward pressure, as CMC data shows that the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization has crashed by nearly 10%. As of writing, XRP’s market cap has fallen to approximately $79.25 billion following a massive decline in its price over the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: XRP Completes ‘Super Guppy Compression’ Against Bitcoin, Next Target Emerges The downturn aligns with the broader market sell-off across major cryptocurrencies, as sentiment has become increasingly bearish. XRP has been among the worst affected, with its price slipping toward $1.3, marking its lowest levels since 2024. The cryptocurrency shows no clear signs of a rebound despite a recent surge in daily trading volume, which has increased by more than 148%. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period.  Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates.  Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination.  Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month.  BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s role in big-money talks has shifted in recent weeks. Reports say analysts at JPMorgan now see Bitcoin as more attractive than gold for long-term investors once you adjust how risk is counted. That’s a notable twist given how deeply gold has been ingrained as the go-to safe haven for decades. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures Gold’s climb has been hard to ignore. After swinging wildly, gold prices rallied back to around $5,000 per ounce following a sharp sell-off earlier in February, with major banks projecting further strength later in 2026. This rebound came after gold reached record highs, and JPMorgan even forecasts it could hit roughly $6,300 per ounce by year-end. At the same time, Bitcoin’s own numbers have looked shaky. Since peaking above $126,000, Bitcoin has slid nearly 50%, settling nearer $65,000-$70,000 in early February. That plunge left BTC below its estimated production cost of around $87,000, according to analysts. A Bridge Between Price And Risk Reports say the real math behind JPMorgan’s view isn’t just about where these assets sit today. It’s about how wild their price swings have been. The soaring price came with rising unpredictability — gold’s volatility has spiked as markets reacted to geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic moves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility has softened from its usual extremes. This convergence shows up in what’s called the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio. According to JPMorgan, that ratio has plunged to around 1.5, a record low. On its face, that means Bitcoin is carrying only about 1.5 times the risk of gold — tighter than historical norms. That shift makes risk-adjusted returns more competitive for BTC. Under this framework, analysts figure Bitcoin’s market capitalization would have to rise dramatically to match the roughly $8 trillion private sector investment held in gold. If that happened, implied models point to Bitcoin prices near $266,000. JPMorgan says that is not an expected short-term target, but the theoretical math illustrates how much room exists if sentiment changes. Market Movements Tell Another Story In the broader market, tokens like XRP, Ethereum, and Solana have been caught up in the same risk sell-off that clipped Bitcoin. These cryptos have seen sharp drops in recent sessions as traders fled riskier bets, testing buying interest and liquidity conditions. Moves like these show that the relative calm in volatility isn’t guaranteed to last, especially when markets tighten. Gold’s oscillations have also tested investor nerves. Earlier in 2026, gold endured some of its most extreme swings ever — including double-digit plunges and rebounds that challenged its reputation as the “stable” safe haven. But the rebound to near $5,000 per ounce underlines demand from defensive buyers. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands What Investors Are Weighing Based on reports, JPMorgan’s stance doesn’t say Bitcoin will instantly replace gold in portfolios. Instead, analysts are noting how relative risk and reward are being measured today. Bitcoin’s lower recent volatility plus its huge theoretical upside based on gold’s market size make it a compelling candidate for some long-range thinking. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price is currently trading under immense bearish pressure, and the downtrend might not yet be over. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended corrective phase that began after Bitcoin topped out at $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different outlooks as to when the correction will reach a bottom.  Amid the uncertainty, an outlook from a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on X, as it points to historical market bottoms that suggest Bitcoin may still be headed significantly lower. Past Drawdowns Show A Clear Pattern Across Bitcoin Cycles Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during past bear markets and how those declines have changed as the asset has matured over the years. According to the data he highlighted, Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle saw a drawdown of about 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure reduced to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to around 77% during the 2022 bear market.  Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details The consistent takeaway from these cycles is that each successive drawdown has been smaller than the last. This isn’t surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have been growing in size, liquidity, and participation over time. Using that trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should drop from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown compresses to about 70% in the current cycle, measured from the $126,000 all-time high, then the bottom would land around the $38,000 region. Dismissing Higher Bottom Targets Like $69,000 And $50,000 The projection by Sherlock received a lot of views and comments on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and increased institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, Bitcoin’s next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60%, instead of 70%. Sherlock pushed back on that view by noting how reflexivity can amplify downside moves just as easily as it causes rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Quickly Revisit $81,000 Again After The Crash For the time being, Bitcoin is caught between aggressive sell-offs and growing concern that the larger corrective phase is not complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having rebounded from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko.  The recent price action means Bitcoin is back to trading at its lowest levels since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would represent a return to price levels last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin printed one of the largest ever daily candles to the downside on Thursday, sliding more than 15%, roughly $10,800, in a move that rippled through derivatives, spot venues, and the US Bitcoin ETF complex. The scale of the drop is what made it stand out. Not just the percentage drawdown, but the mix of stress signals hitting at once: implied volatility spiking, volumes exploding, and momentum gauges collapsing into levels typically associated with forced selling rather than discretionary risk reduction. Bitcoin Crash Sparks Capitulation Signals Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts framed the session as a “capitulation watch,” pointing to a cluster of metrics rarely seen together. He highlighted Bitcoin implied volatility via BVIV at 88.55, “closing in on the FTX-collapse peak of 105,” and noted Coinbase logged its eighth-largest trading day ever by USD value, with $3.34 billion changing hands—roughly 54,000 BTC at ~$62,000. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Coutts also underscored how extreme the momentum reset looked on daily charts, citing a daily RSI of 15.64, “at or below March 2020 COVID crash lows.” He added: “Margin calls are firing. Forced liquidations are likely still working through the system. This has the signature of a capitulation event, but capitulation can be a process, not a single candle (unless we get a massive wick!). These conditions can persist for weeks or even months before a durable low forms.” Macro trader Alex Krüger stopped short of a price target for the lows, but argued the market was registering the kind of positioning and pricing distortions that tend to cluster around turning points in time. “Friends I really do not know where the bitcoin bottom is but I can recognize extreme conditions that you only see close to bottoms in time, such as extreme negative funding, options skew at levels only seen once before since 2022 (FTX day), and volumes & liquidations at extraordinary levels,” he wrote. “You also have some monster shorts that opened between 64k and 60k, material for a short squeeze sending price to 68k, and if we see so then everyone will start talking about the bottom.” Krüger’s caveat was just as direct: “In the meantime of course equities need to hold. And having a bottom in does not mean that you will see a major trend from here.” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn described the tape as historically stretched on RSI measures, saying bitcoin was “the most oversold today than any day since 3AC blew up in June 2022 (30d RSI),” and calling it “basically in the top 3 oversold events ever,” alongside November 2018 and June 2022. The US spot Bitcoin ETF market didn’t cushion the move, it amplified the day’s activity. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas said BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) “just crushed its daily volume record with $10b worth of shares traded” as the fund’s price fell 13%, its second-worst daily drop since launch. Head of Research for Anchorage Digital David Lawant added that IBIT alone trading above $10 billion was the highest since launch, beating prior records by 69% in shares and 27% in USD volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted Positioning data hinted at a complex, two-sided ETF ecosystem. Head of Research at K33 Research Vetle Lunde noted net equivalent short exposure in short BTC ETFs was nearing the November 2022 peak at 7,745 BTC, while 2x leveraged long BTC ETFs—products that didn’t exist then—currently hold 39,590 BTC, “at levels not seen since Mar 24.” Volatility remained the throughline. ProCap CIO Jeff Park said: “Bitcoin implied vol is now at 75%. This is the highest level since the ETF launch in 2024. It is also finally higher than gold volatility. Know it’s a lot of pain right now, but this is all part of the process required for Bitcoin to make new highs. The melt up will be fast.” At press time, BTC rebounded from $60,000 to roughly $64,900, a gain of about 9% from the session low. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on market sentiment and momentum. After months of volatility, recent price action suggests a fragile structure, with buyers repeatedly failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. Analysts increasingly warn that downside risks remain elevated as short-term investors continue to absorb losses rather than stepping in aggressively to accumulate. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework A recent report from analyst Axel Adler highlights mounting stress among short-term holders. Data from the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR indicator shows that many participants are now realizing losses, with this cohort sitting roughly 25% below their average acquisition cost. The SOPR metric, which compares selling price to purchase price, has dropped to 0.949, while its 7-day average remains near 0.97. Values below 1.0 confirm that coins are being sold at a loss, often reflecting forced liquidations or reactive selling behavior. Notably, the indicator has stayed below this threshold since mid-January, signaling sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction. Historically, prolonged SOPR weakness alongside price stabilization can indicate seller exhaustion. However, a decisive move back above 1.0 would be required to confirm a shift in market regime. Until then, the risk of further downside cannot be ruled out. Short-Term Holder MVRV Signals Deep Unrealized Losses Axel Adler also points to the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator as further evidence of mounting stress among recent market participants. This metric compares the current market price with the average acquisition price of short-term holders, offering a clear view of unrealized profitability. When MVRV falls below 1.0, it indicates that this cohort is, on average, holding positions at a loss rather than in profit. Recent data shows the STH MVRV dropping sharply to around 0.752, with the cohort’s realized price near $95,400. With Bitcoin trading close to $71,700, short-term holders are roughly 25% underwater. The gap between market price and their cost basis—about $23,700—is currently the widest observed in this cycle, highlighting the scale of recent downside pressure. Historically, MVRV readings approaching or falling below the 0.8 level have often coincided with accumulation phases or local market bottoms. However, such signals are not sufficient on their own. Confirmation typically requires price stabilization alongside a recovery in SOPR above 1.0, indicating that forced selling has eased. Until those conditions emerge, the data suggests continued fragility despite increasing signs of capitulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Transfer Surge Mirrors 2018 And 2021 Peaks – What Happens Next? Bitcoin Breaks Key Weekly Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows clear deterioration after price decisively broke below the mid-range support that had previously held near the $75K area. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, pushing BTC toward the $70K zone while trading well below the 50-week moving average. Historically, sustained trading under this average tends to coincide with corrective or transitional bear phases rather than bullish continuation. The 100-week moving average, currently positioned slightly above $80K, has shifted from support to resistance. The market requires a reclaim of this level to stabilize sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-week average continues to trend upward near the $55K–$60K region, marking a deeper macro support band if selling pressure persists. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase Volume expansion accompanying the latest decline suggests active distribution rather than low-liquidity drift. However, capitulation phases often show similar volume characteristics, meaning interpretation depends on whether follow-through selling continues or begins to fade. Structurally, BTC now faces a critical test. Holding above the $68K–$70K range could allow consolidation before a potential recovery attempt. Failure to stabilize there would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward longer-term moving average support, keeping the broader market cautious despite growing oversold conditions. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that the stress could spread more broadly across the sector.  The number of publicly traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long-term.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly.  As a result, Bitcoin has slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major Companies Suffer  Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday.  In December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support dividend payments.  The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices.  Alt5 Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows social media users are still optimistic about XRP even as sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined alongside the market downturn. XRP Positive/Negative Sentiment Is Still At A Notable Level In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media sentiment has compared across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP during the latest market decline. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us about how positive comments related to a given asset stack up against the negative ones on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The metric works by assembling posts/comments/messages containing mentions of the asset and feeding them into a machine-learning model to classify them as bearish or bullish. It then counts up the number of posts in each category and finds their ratio. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means positive comments related to the cryptocurrency outweigh the negative ones. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold suggests the dominance of bearish sentiment. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP over the past month: As is visible in the above graph, the Positive/Negative Sentiment plunged across the three cryptocurrencies at the end of January as prices crashed. The indicator’s value slipped below 1 for each of them during this drop, indicating traders became bearish on the market as a whole. As prices have continued to slide down since then, however, a shift has occurred in the Positive/Negative Sentiment, with its value separating for the three. The chart shows that the metric’s latest value for XRP is nearly 2.2, indicating that social media users have become more optimistic about the coin. Meanwhile, the indicator continues to be inside the bearish zone for Bitcoin with a value of 0.79. Ethereum has seen some improvement in the metric to a neutral value of 1, but compared to the normal for January, this level could still be considered to reflect a bearish sentiment among the retail social media crowd. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Compresses To Levels Last Seen Near $29,000 Historically, digital asset markets have often tended to move in a direction contrary to the expectations of retail traders. This means that an extreme amount of fear can help prices rebound, while overhype can lead to tops. “There remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole,” explained the analytics firm. Given that trader sentiment has diverged for XRP recently, however, it only remains to be seen how the sector will develop in the near future. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.35, down more than 27% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price extended its decline to $60,000. BTC is down over 10% and might struggle to recover easily above the $70,000 resistance. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $62,500 and $61,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Sharply Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $72,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $70,000 and $68,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $65,500. A low was formed at $60,500, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a minor increase above the $62,000 and $63,200 levels. The price cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,865 swing high to the $60,500 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $62,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $66,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $67,200 level. A close above the $67,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,865 swing high to the $60,500 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,500 and $75,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $63,200 level. The first major support is near the $62,500 level. The next support is now near the $61,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $60,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $62,500, followed by $61,200. Major Resistance Levels – $67,200 and $68,500.

Bitcoin is down more than 40% from its October highs, but investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled 6.6% of assets.

Crypto analyst Coinvo has revealed that the Bitcoin price has just hit a 15-year trendline following its latest crash to around $70,000. He declared this a buying opportunity, noting that the trendline has historically held on four prior occasions in past cycles.  Bitcoin Price Hits 15-Year Trendline Against Gold In an X post, Coinvo stated that the Bitcoin price has hit the same RSI trendline on its gold chart as in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. He further noted that this development has historically created a buying opportunity, as BTC has consistently outperformed gold when this happens. He urged market participants not to miss this as it is the “biggest opportunity” they have ever had.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Test Resistance At $80,600 After Bottoming At $74,000 His statement comes as the Bitcoin price crashed to a new yearly low at around $70,000, with the leading crypto asset now down over 19% year-to-date (YTD). Based on Coinvo’s analysis, this may mark the bottom for BTC despite concerns that the crypto market may be entering a deep bear market. In another X post, the analyst stated that the Bitcoin price is set to repeat the entire 2023 rally. He noted that the same pattern as in 2023 is playing out now, with BTC hitting the 200-day EMA, which marked a bear-market bottom back then by flipping into support. Coinvo added that most people are too focused on the bearish noise, but urged market participants not to let it obscure the truth, as Bitcoin is going higher.  However, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the Bitcoin price could still drop lower, having crashed below its April 2025 low. He noted that in the previous cycles, when BTC fell below the 100-week SMA, it crashed straight to the 200-week SMA before any relief bounce occurred.  BTC Could Still Crash To As Low As $63,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared an accompanying chart showing that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as $63,000. This came as he noted that the nature of BTC’s decline, with eight consecutive days of lower lows and highs, indicates campaign selling rather than retail liquidation.  He noted that he has observed this pattern several times and that it is difficult to determine when it ends. Crypto analyst PlanB highlighted potential bear-market scenarios for BTC. He stated that an 80% drawdown from the current all-time high (ATH) could put the Bitcoin price at $25,000. Furthermore, a drop to the 200-week MA and current realized price could mean a crash to between $50,000 and $60,000. Meanwhile, a crash to the previous cycle’s ATH could mean that $70,000 is the bottom.  Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $70,700, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has gone through an intense bout of volatility over the past few days, with a violent sell-off that has dragged its price into the $70,000 range. The move wiped out short-term bullish positioning and forced the price below several intraday support levels. Although there are risks of further downside, Bitcoin is now looking to stabilize and push to reclaim important reference levels. A technical outlook suggests that a path back to the $81,000 region could open up faster than expected if certain conditions are met. Sweep Of The Yearly Low One of the most important developments on the chart is the sweep of the last yearly candle low around $74,456. That move flushed liquidity resting below prior lows and was a clear downside grab that had been waiting for months.  Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details In terms of a market-structure perspective, this type of sweep is a reset point that clears weak hands and allows price to build a more stable base. The bounce that followed pushed Bitcoin back to $77,000, a move that shows buyers were willing to defend the area after the liquidation event. This is now transitioning into a decision zone, which is where the next directional move becomes more important. As noted by crypto analyst Minga on the social media platform X, Bitcoin went back to testing the weekly open just below $77,000. Holding above it would mean that the recovery has real follow-through, which in turn would allow the price to revisit the monthly open at $78,700. The chart shared by the analyst also shows multiple equal highs stacked above that region, right within the previous range low. Together, these elements form a pocket of unfinished business. If Bitcoin reclaims and sustains acceptance above the weekly open, the probability of a push through the monthly open increases, with that momentum then potentially carrying price into the $80,000s, where prior range liquidity is around $81,000. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @Mingarithm on X Related Reading: Where’s XRP Price Headed As Exchange Reserves Plunge To 1.7 Billion? Downside Scenario And The Relief Bounce Zone Below There is a valid alternate path if Bitcoin’s advances continue to reject at the weekly open, which is looking like the case in the current price action. In that case, there is a deeper downside target between $70,800 and $69,100. This area stands out as a high-confluence zone that aligns with a higher-timeframe order block, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, and the last cycle’s all-time high in 2021.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,930, down by 7.2% in the past 24 hours and is now at risk of losing $70,000. If price holds above this zone after the current test, then Bitcoin is likely to transition into a range before attempting continuation and breaking above $81,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has finally swept the sell-side liquidity that had been building beneath the market, driving price into a deep demand zone where stronger buyers are expected to step in. With the downside move now largely complete, attention shifts to whether this level can spark a meaningful reaction or mark the start of a broader reset. Why The 100-Week SMA Remains A Proven Bitcoin Accumulation Zone Crypto analyst Brett emphasized that accumulating Bitcoin below the 100-week Simple Moving Average has repeatedly proven to be one of the most reliable long-term investment strategies. According to the expert, this zone has historically marked periods of maximum pessimism, where risk-to-reward strongly favors patient buyers rather than short-term traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says Brett explained that his personal approach deliberately avoids trying to pinpoint the exact market bottom. Instead, he focuses on steady accumulation by placing buy orders across a wide range between $55,000 and $75,000, supported by daily recurring purchases. For investors with a more conservative mindset, Brett pointed out that waiting for confirmation can be just as effective. Looking at past cycles, Brett noted that buying after Bitcoin moves back above the 100-week SMA has consistently delivered strong returns. He stressed that BTC has never fallen below the previous cycle’s 100-week SMA, reinforcing its importance as a structural support level. Those who followed this strategy in prior market cycles are now sitting on significant long-term profits. Breakdown Confirmed As Key Lows Failed To Hold According to the latest BTC Heatmap update by Columbus, the market has followed the exact trajectory previously mapped out. Columbus notes that the inability of the local lows to hold, combined with weak reactions on the tape, signaled that the liquidity stacked below would act as a magnet. Consequently, the continuation leg played out as an inevitable result of this structural weakness. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now In his analysis of the current price action, Columbus highlights that Bitcoin is now trading directly within a cluster of heavier bids located around the low-$70,000 region. The analyst identifies this specific zone as the first area where a “real reaction” is likely to occur, as it represents a significant concentration of buy-side interest. For Columbus, the sweep into these deeper pockets was the necessary clearing event to reach this primary demand zone. Columbus concludes that since the anticipated downside has fully played out, the focus now shifts entirely to the immediate response from buyers. With the liquidity targets hit and the price sitting on heavy support, Columbus is now closely watching for a definitive reaction to determine if this level will provide the foundation for the next leg of the trend. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Reports say an on-chain analytics account called Rand flagged a new milestone: crypto funds have recorded three straight months of outflows for the first time on record. Related Reading: Crypto Could Bounce Soon As Fundamentals Firm Up, Tom Lee Says That streak stands out because it breaks the pattern of sporadic withdrawals and inflows that marked earlier market cycles. Many investors are watching closely. Outflows Reach A Historic Turning Point According to market watchers, the run of withdrawals covers both retail and institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have been a major focus, with inflows that were once enormous now trimming down. Some of the earlier gains that piled into ETFs have been partially reversed, leaving holders with paper losses that many see as painful right now. US ???????? spot #Bitcoin ETF’s recorded 3 months of net outflows in a row. The first time in history that there has been 3 consecutive months of outflows. pic.twitter.com/WusDpXuSSm — Rand (@cryptorand) February 3, 2026 ETF Investors Holding Their Ground Reports say several prominent analysts have pointed out that, while the recent bleed looks alarming, ETF holders haven’t fled. James Seyffart noted that holders remain largely in place despite steep paper losses. Jim Bianco weighed in too, suggesting the average ETF stake is underwater by a meaningful margin yet still being held. This is not a full-scale selloff; it’s a slow retreat for now. Large sums entered the market during the peak months and those inflows dwarf the recent outflows when measured over the longer run. Sentiment has shifted, but conviction has not collapsed. What The Numbers Show Over 30 days, spot Bitcoin’s price slid by a sizable amount, and that drop helped push ETF positions into the red. Reports show some holders face losses around the low 40%, while shorter windows show steeper swings. The math is simple: big gains came fast, and some of that profit has been given back. At the same time, net positions remain sizable and a fair share of the capital that flowed in earlier is still parked in ETFs. Long Term Gains Versus Short Term Pain According to other market commentators, the bigger picture still favors those who kept faith through the rally years. Since 2022, Bitcoin’s cumulative rise outpaced several traditional stores of value, say analysts tracking long-term performance. That record is raised as a counterpoint to the current outflow story. Some investors see the current weak stretch as a pause; others see it as a warning. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures What Comes Next The three-month outflow run is a sobering marker. It signals caution has spread beyond a handful of traders and reached products that many thought would smooth volatility. Money can return just as quickly as it left, or the slow drip could continue. For now, reports and the data both show a market in a rare place: bruised, but not emptied. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its sharp sell‑off on Thursday, briefly falling below the $67,000 level and marking its lowest price since November 2024.  The renewed pressure follows commentary from market analyst Hugo Crypto, who pointed to a recent report from investment bank Stifel outlining a notably bearish outlook for Bitcoin.  Deeper Bitcoin Drawdown Ahead? According to Stifel’s analysis, the leading cryptocurrency could continue declining toward $38,000. If reached, that target would represent an additional drop of roughly 43% from current levels and would place Bitcoin back at prices last seen in January 2024. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Stifel’s forecast is built on several macro and market‑specific factors. The firm cited the impact of tighter US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, ongoing uncertainty and stagnation around US crypto regulation, shrinking market liquidity, and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs).  The bank also framed its outlook within the context of historical Bitcoin market cycles. According to Stifel, Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025 fits a familiar pattern seen in prior cycles, which have typically been followed by extended and deep drawdowns.  Additional warnings were echoed by market observer Walter Bloomberg, who highlighted weakening demand, a sharp slowdown in ETF inflows, and growing stress in derivatives markets.  Futures markets, in particular, appear to be entering what he describes as a “forced deleveraging” phase, where leveraged positions are unwound rapidly, adding to selling pressure. BTC Faces Key Technical Test ETF data from Thursday further illustrates the strain on market sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have so far recorded net outflows of approximately 7,925 BTC on the day, equivalent to about $533 million.  Over the past seven days, net outflows have totaled roughly 19,090 BTC, or around $1.28 billion, reinforcing concerns that institutional demand is fading rather than providing support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash To $72,000 Signals Major Reset: On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate From a technical perspective, analyst MartyParty highlighted the importance of the $68,000 level, which Bitcoin would need to reclaim to stabilize in the near term. This area aligns with the 200‑week exponential moving average, a level often viewed as critical during major market corrections.  Failure to hold above that zone could open the door to a move toward the 200‑week simple moving average, currently near $58,000, according to technical analysts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $67,100, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 20% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, says bitcoin’s drawdown has left markets staring at four plausible bear-market paths, ranging from a classic 80% drawdown to the possibility that the lows are already in. In a post on X and a follow-up video dated Feb. 4, PlanB framed the debate around where bitcoin typically finds bear-market bottoms relative to long-term trend metrics, while also arguing that the previous rally’s lack of momentum could translate into a shallower reset this time. Bitcoin closed January at $78,000, he said, marking a roughly 40% decline from the cycle’s all-time high at $126,000. On his chart, the 200-week moving average closed at $58,000 and realized price at $55,000, with the January RSI ending at 49, a level he treats as a regime shift. “RSI here, 49. RSI, as you know, is an index between 0 and 100. And everything above 50 is an uptrend. Everything below 50 is downtrend,” PlanB said. “So 49 is below 50, it’s downtrend. It’s a bear market… similar to 2014–15, 2018–19 and 2022–23.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase 4 Bitcoin Bear Market Scenarios From there, he outlined four scenarios for how the drawdown could evolve. The first is the historical “worst case” that still sits in traders’ mental models: an 80% drop from the top. With an ATH of $126,000, PlanB said that would imply a move to roughly $25,000 — “somewhere here between these two lines” on his chart, even if he acknowledged it would “look really really odd.” The second scenario is more conventional by his own backtests: a bottom around the 200-week moving average and realized price, which he pegged in the $50,000–$60,000 level. PlanB pointed to prior cycles where price eventually “drop[s] to the moving average realized price levels,” highlighting 2022 and 2015 as examples where the RSI trough coincided with those long-term anchors. The third scenario is shallower still: a retrace that stops just above the prior cycle’s all-time high, around $69,000–$70,000. PlanB’s reasoning is that the preceding bull phase looked muted in his indicators, which could compress the magnitude of the bear. “So what I think is… because the bull market was very weak… it didn’t have the red dots, the high RSI peaks,” he said. “Because of that, the bear market could be very shallow. And that would mean, for example, going back to the level or just be above the level of the… previous all-time high, which was 69,000.” Related Reading: ‘Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin’: Cathie Wood Makes The Rotation Call The fourth scenario is the one traders always want on their screens: that the market already printed its low. PlanB wrote that “yesterday’s $72.9k was the bottom,” and reiterated in the video that “maybe the $72.800 that we saw a couple days ago was already the bottom.” Notably, the BTC price already dropped to $70,140 on Wednesday, invalidating this scenario. IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios: 1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k 2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k 3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k 4) yesterday’s $72.9k was the bottom I discuss these scenario’s in my new video: ???? https://t.co/mXSxJK9LLx — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 4, 2026 PlanB also revisited his stock-to-flow framework, saying it remains at $500,000 as a value signal derived from scarcity while stressing it is not built to call turning points. “Stock to flow says nothing about tops and bottoms,” he said, adding that it speaks to “the four-year average” and periodic “phase transition every four or five years.” That caveat set up his final point: the cycle template may be shifting. PlanB noted that in his four-year-cycle view, the peak historically lands in the first or second year after a halving, but “it didn’t happen after 2024 halving.” In his telling, that leaves room for an upside phase later in the cycle, even as his nearer-term framework keeps the focus on whether bitcoin gravitates toward realized price and the 200-week average, holds the prior ATH zone, or validates a higher low in the low-$70,000s. At press time, BTC traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn.  The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins.  Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market.  Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market.  With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases.  Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness.  Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction.  Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds.  Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize around the $75,000 level as broader market weakness continues to weigh on price action. After weeks of sustained selling pressure, volatility has compressed, but confidence has not yet returned. Traders remain cautious, liquidity is thinner, and upside attempts have so far failed to gain traction. The current environment reflects a market searching for equilibrium rather than signaling a clear reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase According to On-Chain Mind, assessing whether Bitcoin is approaching a bear market bottom requires shifting focus away from short-term price moves and toward structural stress across the network. In prior cycles, true capitulation did not occur until the majority of participants were deeply underwater. This condition is captured by the Cap Loss Ratio, a metric that compares Realized Cap—Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis—to Market Cap. When the ratio spikes, it reflects widespread unrealized losses and collective pain across holders. Historically, these spikes have coincided with moments of maximum pessimism, when forced selling, exhausted demand, and broad capitulation aligned to form durable bottoms. The key question now is whether the current drawdown is sufficient to trigger that level of stress, or if further downside is required to fully reset the market. With Bitcoin hovering near critical support, On-Chain Mind poses the central question facing investors today: are we approaching a bear market bottom, or is the market still early in its capitulation phase? Cap Loss Ratio Signals Capitulation Still Ahead On-Chain Mind notes that the historical behavior of the Cap Loss Ratio provides a useful framework for judging where Bitcoin may sit within a bear market cycle. In previous downturns, the metric reached progressively lower peak levels as the market matured. During the 2015 bear market, the Cap Loss Ratio spiked above 0.5, reflecting extreme network-wide distress and deep, prolonged capitulation. In the 2018–2019 cycle, the peak was lower, around 0.4, while the 2022 bear market topped out closer to 0.3. This steady reduction in peak stress suggests diminishing severity across cycles, likely driven by a more diversified holder base, stronger long-term conviction, and improved market infrastructure. If this pattern continues, On-Chain Mind argues that final capitulation in the current cycle would most likely occur with the Cap Loss Ratio somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2. Crucially, the market has not reached that zone yet. Current readings imply that while significant pain has already been absorbed, aggregate losses across the network are still below levels historically associated with definitive bottoms. The market faces additional downside and further stress before it reaches a full reset. At the same time, history shows that the 0.1–0.2 range has often marked areas where long-term, high-conviction entries emerge. These zones tend to coincide with maximum pessimism, declining participation, and forced selling exhaustion. For investors focused on structure rather than short-term price action, this framework helps define where risk remains elevated—and where generational opportunities have previously formed. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Profit-Taking Collapses: Is Smart Money Done Selling? Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Weekly Trend Weakens Bitcoin is trading near the $75,000 area after a sharp rejection from higher levels, confirming a clear shift in market structure on the weekly timeframe. The chart reveals that BTC has decisively broken the rising trend previously sustained by the 50-week moving average. Price is now trading below both the 50-week (blue) and the 100-week (green) moving averages. This historically signals a transition from trend continuation into a corrective or distributive phase. The recent breakdown followed a failed attempt to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 zone. Which previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. This failure accelerated selling pressure and pushed the price toward the $74,000–$75,000 region. A level that coincides with prior consolidation and psychological support. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? Despite the weakness, Bitcoin remains above the 200-week moving average (red), which continues to slope upward and currently sits well below the price. From a long-term perspective, this confirms that the macro uptrend remains intact. However, momentum clearly favors the downside in the medium term. If $74,000 fails to hold, the chart indicates a deeper retracement toward the low $60,000s, where stronger historical demand resides. Conversely, any recovery attempt must first reclaim the 100-week moving average to shift the structure back toward neutrality. For now, the chart reflects a market under pressure, testing whether buyers are willing to defend this critical zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows calls for sub-$60,000 Bitcoin prices have seen a rise on social media recently, a sign that fear is brewing among retail traders. Bitcoin Social Volume Data Suggests Growth In Bearish Calls In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media users have reacted to the recent bearish price action. The indicator of relevance here is the “Social Volume,” measuring the total number of posts on the major social media platforms that contain mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Compresses To Levels Last Seen Near $29,000 To separate between bullish and bearish predictions, Santiment has filtered the Social Volume of Bitcoin with terms referencing certain price levels. For the bullish side, the analytics firm has chosen levels in the $90,000 to $99,000 range, while for the bearish one, $50,000 to $59,000. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Social Volume related to the two types of Bitcoin market calls has changed during the latest price volatility: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume for levels above $90,000 spiked toward the end of last month, suggesting social media users were expecting the cryptocurrency to revisit the higher levels. What followed the spike, however, was a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Then, on the last day of the month, the trend flipped as bearish calls observed a sharp surge instead. BTC’s decline temporarily cooled alongside this and prices saw a small rebound. This pattern of Bitcoin going in the direction that goes against the opinion of the majority is actually something that has been witnessed throughout history. Naturally, it doesn’t always happen, but the chances of a reversal tend to go up whenever the traders are leaning into one direction too heavily. From the chart, it’s visible that social media users have recently once again started leaning in on a direction, and, like the last time, they are fearing sub-$60,000 price levels. The analytics firm explained: Markets move opposite to what the crowd expects, meaning there can at least be founded arguments for a short-term relief rally while retail is already assuming sub-$60K Bitcoin is a foregone conclusion. It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will develop in the near future, given the rise in fearful sentiment that has occurred on the various social media platforms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says In some other news, the Bitcoin supply sitting on centralized exchanges has been on the rise recently, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has highlighted in an X post. As data of the Exchange Reserve indicator shows, 34,000 BTC has returned to exchanges since January 19th. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to slide down as its price has now reached the $73,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin drawdown below $75,000 has market participants debating a familiar question: how long does a bear market last when the data refuses to improve. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, speaking on The Milk Road Show on Feb. 2, argued that most major demand and liquidity indicators are still signaling weakness and that the bottoming process could take months, not weeks. Bitcoin Bear Market Can’t Be Denied Anymore Moreno’s core framework is CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index,” a composite of 10 metrics spanning on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, market data, and a single technical trend input. “The index goes from zero to 100. Zero is the most bearish, 100 is the most bullish,” he said. “First the index is at zero, which is extremely bearish territory […] and it has been between like zero and 10 for the last maybe month and a half […] What it’s telling us is there’s too much weakness in either the data [or] in the markets.” He pointed to how quickly the same index flipped in October, when a liquidation event accelerated the shift from bullish to bearish readings. In early October the index hit 80, “well inside bullish territory” before collapsing toward 20–30 in “a few days,” a move Moreno interpreted as a momentum failure that turned a late-cycle rally into a short-lived spike. Moreno’s bigger point was about lead time. He said the index “tends to become […] bearish before there’s a big correction in prices,” framing it as an early-warning system rather than a lagging confirmation tool. On the show, he summarized the current regime bluntly: Bitcoin is “well in bear market,” and “the data is just not supportive of any meaningful reversal.” Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows On demand, Moreno highlighted US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he said shifted into net selling in Q4 and remained a drag into early 2026. He cited year-to-date flows showing ETFs had sold more than 10,000 BTC in January, compared with purchasing 46,000 BTC in the same period a year earlier. “If ETFs are net sellers then it’s not supportive for prices,” he said, adding that any sustained recovery would likely require that demand to stabilize and grow again. The same dynamic showed up in the Coinbase premium, the price spread between Coinbase and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Moreno described the premium as a proxy for US demand and said it flipped negative in November and has stayed negative “most of the time” since. Historically, he argued, bull markets have been “driven by […] higher US demand,” and the persistence of a discount suggests the US bid hasn’t returned, even after the drawdown. Moreno also pointed to stablecoin liquidity as a missing tailwind. He tracked the 60-day change in USDT market cap, a proxy for fresh capital entering the trading ecosystem, and said growth has effectively stalled since mid-October. New issuance tends to land on exchanges, he explained, “and provides […] dry powder for then traders buying crypto,” tying stablecoin expansion directly to market-wide liquidity conditions. Beyond ETFs and stablecoins, Moreno said CryptoQuant’s longer-term Bitcoin demand growth model is hovering near zero on a year-over-year basis. “What drives bull markets is this […] growth in demand, the demand waves,” he said, but since October that growth has slowed sharply. In his view, it helps explain why downside has persisted even as the market searches for a durable base. Related Reading: ‘Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin’: Cathie Wood Makes The Rotation Call Leverage positioning has also deteriorated. Moreno used perpetual futures funding rates as a read on the appetite to hold long exposure and said the one-year average funding rate trend is pointing lower: “less appetite to go long” while short-term funding flips need to be interpreted differently depending on whether the market is in a bull or bear regime. How Deep Into the Bitcoin Bear Market Are We Now? w/ @cryptoquant_com Head of Research @jjcmoreno Bitcoin is trading CHEAPER on Coinbase than Binance. That almost never happens in bull markets. This one signal tells you who is NOT buying the dip. Tune in to know more ⏱… pic.twitter.com/0uxGtntOZP — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 2, 2026 When Will The Bitcoin Bear Market End? For the technical component, Moreno emphasized Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which he treats as a regime filter. “A good way to see the trend in the price is just looking at the one-year moving average,” he said, arguing it acts as support in bull markets and resistance once price breaks below. He noted Bitcoin crossed beneath it in early November and has failed to reclaim it, a pattern he said resembles early 2022. On key levels, Moreno described the “trader on-chain realized price” — the estimated cost basis of active market participants — as overhead resistance around $89,000 and $79,000. His next price target is $70,000 as an intermediate marker and $56,000 as a deeper level tied to the same cost-basis framework. Moreno closed with a warning about psychology as much as charting. “First of all you have to accept this. We are in a bear market. So plan accordingly,” he said. “There will be price rallies […] but don’t confuse that with the start of a bull market […] and […] don’t catch the falling knife […] the market’s bottom in months.” As for duration, Moreno said he could see the first credible bottoming window emerging around Q3 2026, based on historical patterns and the fact that this downturn appears to have started earlier than some prior cycles. Whether that timeline holds, he suggested, will depend less on a single bounce and more on whether demand, US flows, and liquidity indicators stop flatlining and start turning back up. At press time, BTC traded at $75,041. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price extended its decline below $73,500. BTC is now consolidating losses but faces many hurdles near $75,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $72,000 and $71,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $75,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $74,000 and $73,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $72,500. A low was formed at $71,532, and the price is now consolidating losses. The current price action is negative below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $72,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,850 level. The first key resistance is near the $74,200 level. A close above the $74,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $75,000 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,500 level and the trend line. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,850 and $78,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $72,000 level. The first major support is near the $71,200 level. The next support is now near the $70,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $70,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $72,000, followed by $71,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,850 and $74,200.

Bitwise is laying out a bold scenario: Bitcoin could climb to a new record in 2026 and, if the stars align as the sages would say, may one day reach $1 million over the next 10 years. That view rests less on past rhythms and more on a shift in who buys and how they buy. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers Institutional Demand Could Soar According to Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s Director of Research, big money is moving from the sidelines onto the field. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and major brokerages have made buying easier for pension funds, endowments, and fund managers. Reports say these channels could funnel tens of billions into the market in 2026 alone. That scale of buying would change how supply shocks play out; a surge of steady inflows can soften the sharp drops that used to follow supply events. JUST IN: $15 billion Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high this year ???? “We believe Bitcoin will hit $1,000,000” pic.twitter.com/k4z9Yk8FEF — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) February 3, 2026 Halving’s Role Is Changing For years, the four-year halving was treated like clockwork: lower miner rewards, tighter new supply, and big price moves. Bitwise now argues that effect is fading. Market access is broader, and more investor types hold stakes, so prices react to a more complex mix of demand signals. Interest rate shifts and the heavy liquidations seen in late 2025 also altered how margin and credit affect crypto moves. Price patterns are being shaped by more varied forces than before. Volatility Has Quieted Reports note a steady fall in Bitcoin’s wild swings over the past decade. In 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was lower than some major tech stocks, a change that surprises many long-time observers. This makes the asset easier to hold for institutional managers who need predictable risk profiles. At the same time, ties to US equities appear to be loosening. A lower correlation would let Bitcoin serve as a distinct allocation in a diversified portfolio, rather than just another proxy for broader market mood. Related Reading: Trump Says He Was Unaware Of Abu Dhabi Royal’s $500 Million WLFI Investment Near-Term Pain, Longer-Term Case? Bitcoin hit lows under $80,000 recently, trading near $75,000 at one point. Those moves wiped about 10% off value in a week and left the coin roughly 35% below the October 6, 2025 peak of $126,085. Short-term stress is real. Some capital left the market in sharp selloffs, and sentiment cooled. Yet Bitwise thinks these shocks could be less defining going forward, because buying via ETFs and brokerages does not always behave like retail-driven swings. The vision of Bitcoin reaching $1 million may seem distant, but Rasmussen sees it as a realistic outcome if current trends continue. Rising institutional demand and broader market access could make 2026 a turning point, setting the stage for a decade where Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset, but a serious contender for long-term wealth growth. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has fallen to its lowest level in years following the price crash below the $80,000 level. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plummeted Recently In a new post on X, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has discussed about the latest trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, an indicator that aims to estimate whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued based on how its market cap compares against its Realized Cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says The “Realized Cap” is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, what this model represents is the amount of capital that investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the market cap represents the value being held by them in the present. The MVRV Z-Score takes the difference between the two and divides it by the standard deviation of the market cap. When the value of the metric is highly positive, it suggests that the market cap is significantly higher than the Realized Cap. In other words, it indicates the investors are in a notable amount of profit. On the other hand, the indicator being inside the negative zone implies the dominance of loss among holders. Now, here is the chart shared by Beamish that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score over the last several years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has faced a steep drop as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its latest drawdown. The metric has now slipped below the 1 level, although its value still remains above zero, meaning investors continue to be in net profits. The degree of profitability, however, is quite low compared to the average for the last few years. The last time that the MVRV Z-Score was at levels this low was in October 2023, when the asset was still trading near $29,000. “This is a solid reset in unrealised profitability, with the market reverting toward fair value after the prior expansion,” noted the analyst. In the previous cycle, when the MVRV Z-Score saw compression to similar levels, Bitcoin went on to slide further as the 2022 bear market tightened its grip. The cryptocurrency eventually reached its lows after a period of stay in the zone below the 0 level. It now remains to be seen what trajectory the coin will follow in this cycle. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Fate Hinges On This Support Level, Analyst Warns The latest market downturn hasn’t only affected unrealized investor gains, realized profits have also shrunk, as pointed out by Glassnode in an X post. The 90-day moving average (MA) of the ratio between realized profits and losses on the Bitcoin network has declined to 1.5, not far from the neutral 1 level. According to Glassnode, this reflects “progressively thinner liquidity conditions.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, down 15% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest slide has pushed prices into territory not seen so far this year, with the market briefly trading near the low $75,000 area. Related Reading: Crypto Could Bounce Soon As Fundamentals Firm Up, Tom Lee Says Losses have piled up over recent months, leaving the asset well below its record peak and stirring fresh debate about whether the broader uptrend has stalled. The drop did not happen in isolation, though, and the timing points to wider pressure across risk assets rather than a crypto-only shock. Bids Cluster Below $73k Order books show thicker buy interest clustered in a range that stretches from about $71,500 down toward $64,000. According to market feeds, that demand is visible but tentative. When many bids sit on exchange books they can slow a fall, but they can also disappear quickly if sellers accelerate. Liquidations have amplified the slide: forced closures of leveraged longs have been reported in the millions and such events can create short, violent drops even where fundamental demand remains. This model shows current bitcoin price action is still sitting within historical norms at $74,000. Bitcoin is down ~40% from its October high while U.S. equities remain near all time highs, with the S&P 500 down less than 10%. Under those conditions, a possible ~45% bitcoin… https://t.co/E8oiOKD3VE — Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIICapital) February 3, 2026 Nothing Out Of The Ordinary According to Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, the recent downturn still fits within patterns seen in prior market cycles. Burnett said Bitcoin hovering around the mid-$70,000 range reflects a drawdown size that has appeared before during periods of rapid adoption and price discovery. He added that swings of this scale tend to show up when an asset is still being priced by the market, rather than when it has settled into a stable trading range. Tech Stocks Drag On Risk Appetite The pullback in US tech names, particularly those tied to AI infrastructure, has been cited by several market watchers as a linked cause. NVIDIA and Microsoft were among the bigger drags on major indices, and reports note that weak sentiment around earnings and high-cost AI build-outs has left investors more cautious. When big growth stocks wobble, investors often trim other risky positions too, and crypto has been swept up in that flow. Related Reading: Trump Says He Was Unaware Of Abu Dhabi Royal’s $500 Million WLFI Investment Retail dip-buying was visible on some exchanges, and institutional spot purchases were reported as well. According to Burnett, a 45% drawdown is close to historical swings, which suggests volatility like this has precedents. That view does not remove pain for traders, but it does place the drop into a longer pattern rather than labeling it terminal. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView