THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin’s latest slide has pushed prices into territory not seen so far this year, with the market briefly trading near the low $75,000 area. Related Reading: Crypto Could Bounce Soon As Fundamentals Firm Up, Tom Lee Says Losses have piled up over recent months, leaving the asset well below its record peak and stirring fresh debate about whether the broader uptrend has stalled. The drop did not happen in isolation, though, and the timing points to wider pressure across risk assets rather than a crypto-only shock. Bids Cluster Below $73k Order books show thicker buy interest clustered in a range that stretches from about $71,500 down toward $64,000. According to market feeds, that demand is visible but tentative. When many bids sit on exchange books they can slow a fall, but they can also disappear quickly if sellers accelerate. Liquidations have amplified the slide: forced closures of leveraged longs have been reported in the millions and such events can create short, violent drops even where fundamental demand remains. This model shows current bitcoin price action is still sitting within historical norms at $74,000. Bitcoin is down ~40% from its October high while U.S. equities remain near all time highs, with the S&P 500 down less than 10%. Under those conditions, a possible ~45% bitcoin… https://t.co/E8oiOKD3VE — Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIICapital) February 3, 2026 Nothing Out Of The Ordinary According to Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, the recent downturn still fits within patterns seen in prior market cycles. Burnett said Bitcoin hovering around the mid-$70,000 range reflects a drawdown size that has appeared before during periods of rapid adoption and price discovery. He added that swings of this scale tend to show up when an asset is still being priced by the market, rather than when it has settled into a stable trading range. Tech Stocks Drag On Risk Appetite The pullback in US tech names, particularly those tied to AI infrastructure, has been cited by several market watchers as a linked cause. NVIDIA and Microsoft were among the bigger drags on major indices, and reports note that weak sentiment around earnings and high-cost AI build-outs has left investors more cautious. When big growth stocks wobble, investors often trim other risky positions too, and crypto has been swept up in that flow. Related Reading: Trump Says He Was Unaware Of Abu Dhabi Royal’s $500 Million WLFI Investment Retail dip-buying was visible on some exchanges, and institutional spot purchases were reported as well. According to Burnett, a 45% drawdown is close to historical swings, which suggests volatility like this has precedents. That view does not remove pain for traders, but it does place the drop into a longer pattern rather than labeling it terminal. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Months ago, a prominent crypto analyst outlined a precise window where the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downside phase. At the time, the projection seemed extreme. Now, with price behavior beginning to align with that roadmap, the analyst has released a far more expansive update — one that not only reinforces the crash call but also maps what comes before and after the next major pivot. Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset In the update shared on X, the analyst integrates yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to define both the potential magnitude of decline and the timing of the next pivot. On the yearly timeframe, Bitcoin sits in what he labels an extreme risk zone ahead of a projected pivot around February 2. The structure is left-translated with distributive price action — a formation linked to late-cycle weakness. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash He compares the current setup to a previous harmonic phase where Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its all-time high before reaching the same pivot window. That decline produced a rebound of about 40% but failed to reach a new all-time high, suggesting the February pivot may bring relief rather than expansion. He also identifies a macro risk window from April to September 2026. On the monthly cycle, the analyst marks a decisive pivot around December 22. Historical drawdowns in similar harmonics were 56%, 77%, and 34%, depending on the cycle context. The 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement formed a mid-bull cycle. Upside rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later 158% expansion, showing that monthly harmonics often host the sharpest price dislocations. On the weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot appears around November 19. Past pullbacks ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by upside expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, providing the tactical signals traders may rely on for short-term adjustments within the broader trend. What’s More: Refined Crash Targets And The Bottom Window Beyond confirming the original crash call, the analyst refines the downside roadmap by synchronizing all three cycles. When harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance increase. While the full drawdown ranges 20%–77%, he narrows the likely decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high, noting deeper bear-market conditions are not yet confirmed. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Continue To Decline If This Doesn’t Happen; Analyst The November weekly pivot appears too early for a macro bottom, with higher-timeframe pressure likely pushing the true pivot into January. A late-November dead-cat bounce is possible before further downside. Key levels: $90,000 (~30% drop) for November, $72,000 (~43% below the high) for January, with further support at $45,000 and $28,000 if selling intensifies. The analyst remains cautious, noting the last comparable yearly harmonic rallied 40% without surpassing the all-time high, with similar limits expected before the May–September 2026 risk window. However, while his four-month-old crash call held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is far from over—investors should prepare for further downside and a multi-stage recovery shaping the next macro cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Recent market data has shown that Bitcoin has been trading at an extended discount on Coinbase. Over the past several months, this negative premium, where BTC prices on Coinbase sit below the international average level, has remained consistent. Such prolonged discounts have historically coincided with periods of market uncertainty or late-stage corrections. How Coinbase Premium Remains Negative For Months Bitcoin has been trading at a persistent discount on Coinbase for the past 3 months. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out on X that this typically reflects large ETF outflows and sustained selling pressure from the US-based investors, which has put pressure on a discount to appear.  Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows These conditions are not unusual and have appeared nearly every market downturn or larger range. Thus, this broader market recovery needs the support of ETF inflows and renewed bidding from the US investors to surge higher.  For this reason, monitoring the Coinbase premium and discount is important to know when the price flips around. A stronger directional trend combined with steep discounts or premiums often reinforces the prevailing market move. A Relief Rally Could Buy The Market Time Until October Bitcoin has now broken below its April 2025 low, placing the market at an important inflection point. The CEO and founder of ITC_Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, noted that if the price fails to bounce soon, this could turn into a difficult midterm year. However, if the price can bounce back, it would likely provide the market several months of relief, pushing price action to October and potentially aligning with a more durable bottoming process. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Lack Of New Capital Leaves It Vulnerable To Continued Selling Pressure According to Benjamin, the bearish narrative has been dominant for an extended period, which increases the probability of a countertrend rally that could temporarily restore confidence among bulls. Meanwhile, Benjamin has cautioned against attempting to trade such moves. Furthermore, countertrend rallies often occur unexpectedly, not when market participants are actively anticipating them. A sweep of prior lows would offer short-term relief, even during the bull market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC broke below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price moved straight down to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief occurred. From a broader perspective, Benjamin emphasized that the optimal time to sell BTC was late last year, not during panic-driven sell-offs in a midterm year. His focus remains on the larger cycle, suggesting that late Q3 to early Q4 will be a more favorable window to move real money back into the market. Until then, it is just traders trying to make money during difficult times, attempting to trade the support and resistance levels. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain has pointed out how data could suggest that the latest Bitcoin decline is part of a deeper bear market progression, rather than the final capitulation event. Bitcoin Has Broken Below Both True Market Mean & Average ETF Cost Basis In a new post on X, Checkonchain has talked about the recent bearish action in the Bitcoin price. As the below chart shared by the analytics firm shows, this drawdown has taken the cryptocurrency below two key on-chain cost basis levels. The first level that Bitcoin dropped under was the ETF Cost Basis, corresponding to the average inflow price of the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Before this, the asset had stayed above the line since the second half of 2024. A close call came in the last quarter of 2025, but the level had ended up acting as a support cushion. This time around, however, the price went straight through the line. After the ETF Cost Basis was broken, the next level Bitcoin lost was the True Market Mean, a metric tracking the average buying price of the economically active BTC supply. Thus, the break also sent the majority of the asset’s active investors into a state of net unrealized loss for the first time since 2023. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Fate Hinges On This Support Level, Analyst Warns While the price drawdown so far has clearly induced a lot of market pain, it may not be enough yet, as Checkonchain has noted, “the underlying data suggests this is progression deeper into the bear, not the final capitulation event.” The analytics firm has listed a few metrics pointing to this. First, the spot ETFs have faced negative netflows recently, but while the outflows have been sizeable, they have still lacked the character associated with the panic exodus witnessed at the end of a cycle. Likewise, on-chain losses have observed an increase as the market crash has occurred, but they also haven’t yet reached a level that may be considered to be a reflection of a true capitulation event. Finally, futures market data suggests traders have still been trying to catch the bottom. Checkonchain has described these conditions as “a regime where durable lows rarely form.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike In 2 Years This speculation from futures traders has been resulting in mass liquidations on the various exchanges. During the past day alone, long Bitcoin bets worth $50 million have been liquidated as the price has seen a swing from around $79,000 to levels under $76,500, according to data from CoinGlass. In total, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has witnessed the flush of $185 million in long positions inside this window. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,100, down nearly 14% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released a new analysis of the current state of the crypto market, arguing that the industry has been firmly entrenched in a bear market for over a year.  In a report shared on social media, Hougan stated that his research indicates the current downturn began as early as January 2025, despite widespread optimism fueled by institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to new all-time highs. Deep Bear Market Driving Crypto?  Posting on X, formerly Twitter, Hougan pushed back against the idea that recent price weakness represents a routine pullback or short‑term dip. Instead, he described the current environment as a full‑scale crypto winter comparable to past downturns in 2018 and 2022.  Interestingly, Hougan said the crypto market currently resembles a “2022‑like, Leonardo‑DiCaprio‑in‑The‑Revenant‑style” winter, driven by excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit‑taking by long‑time crypto holders. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Hougan addressed a question many investors have been asking: why prices continue to fall despite a steady stream of positive developments.  He pointed to expanding institutional involvement, improving regulation, and broader adoption as clear long‑term positives, but said none of that typically matters during the deepest phase of a bear market.  According to Hougan, crypto winters are periods when good news is largely ignored, regardless of its significance. Even developments such as Wall Street firms hiring aggressively or major banks like Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto exposure are unlikely to spark a rally in the short term. He also cited market sentiment indicators to support his view. Hougan noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, even as the newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is publicly supportive of Bitcoin.  To him, this disconnect underscores how deeply negative sentiment has become. Drawing on past cycles, Hougan said crypto winters rarely end with renewed excitement or optimism. Instead, they typically conclude when investors are exhausted and disengaged. ETF Support Propped Up Bitcoin?  Looking to history, Hougan observed that previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming a year later, and again peaked in October 2021 before hitting its low point in November 2022.  By that measure, the current cycle might suggest more pain ahead, particularly since Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025. However, Hougan argued that focusing solely on that date misses a critical detail. In his view, the current winter actually began in January 2025 but was partially hidden by extraordinary institutional inflows. He said strong demand from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked underlying weakness across much of the crypto market. Hougan emphasized the scale of institutional support for Bitcoin in particular, calling it unprecedented. During the period he analyzed, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased more than 744,000 BTC, representing roughly $75 billion in buying pressure. He suggested that without this support, BTC’s price could have fallen by as much as 60%.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Despite this, Bitwise CIO suggested several possible catalysts that could help lift sentiment and mark the beginning of a crypto recovery, including strong global economic growth that reignites risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time.  Reflecting on his experience through multiple crypto market cycles, he said the current mood of despair, fatigue, and malaise closely resembles the final stages of past crypto winters. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin's relative strength index has fallen below 30, signaling oversold conditions as the cryptocurrency trades near a key $73,000 to $75,000 support zone.

Reports say a wealthy Abu Dhabi investor bought a near-half stake in a crypto company tied to the Trump family. The transaction, reported to be worth about $500 million, involved an entity linked to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. It has prompted questions in Washington and stirred activity in the markets where the company’s token trades. Related Reading: Mastercard Stresses Crypto Is An Enhancement, Not A Substitute Sheikh A Reported Buyer According to reporting by major outlets, Aryam Investment 1 — an investor connected to Sheikh Tahnoon — agreed to purchase roughly 49% of World Liberty Financial, known as WLFI. The payment was structured in phases, with about $250 million reported as an initial transfer. Reports note roughly $187 million moved to entities associated with the Trump family, while another $31 million reportedly went to companies tied to cofounders. JUST IN: ???????????????? President Trump says he did not know Abu Dhabi invested $500 million in his World Liberty crypto project. “I don’t know about it. My sons are handling that, I guess they get investments from people.” pic.twitter.com/AOBosetnpE — Bitcoin Black (@Bitcoinblacck) February 2, 2026 Timing And Deal Details The timing of the sale matters. It was completed shortly before an important political milestone for the buyer’s partner, and that has sharpened scrutiny. Some lawmakers and ethics experts raised alarms about a high-value foreign-backed investment in a business tied to a sitting US President. Others point out that private business dealings are common and that the legal thresholds for disclosure can be complex. Market participants reacted quickly; trading in WLFI-linked assets saw spikes in volume and price swings as news spread. Trump Responds When journalists pressed him about the report, US President Donald Trump denied having knowledge of the transaction. “I don’t know about it,” he said, adding that his sons run many family business matters. The remark was brief but clear: he insisted the family manages WLFI and that he was not personally involved in negotiating the sale. Some aides later reiterated that any operational decisions were handled by company executives and family members. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers Reactions From Lawmakers And Regulators Reports say lawmakers from both parties want answers. A handful of senators have asked for briefings and documents, and a few regulators have been asked to look at whether any disclosure rules were followed. At the same time, legal experts caution that an investment by a foreign-backed firm is not automatically illegal or disqualifying. What matters, they say, are the exact terms, who signed which papers, and whether any statutory reporting obligations were met. Featured image from Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images, chart from TradingView

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said she would “make a shift from gold into Bitcoin” after gold’s run left the metal looking extended on a key liquidity-adjusted measure, arguing that bitcoin’s supply dynamics and long-term adoption case still favor the crypto asset despite a sluggish year. Speaking on a Feb. 2 episode of The Rundown interview, Wood framed the call as part of a broader “great acceleration” thesis laid out in ARK’s latest “Big Ideas” report, which expects AI-driven capital expenditure to surge and spill into robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and life sciences through what she described as converging S-curves. Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin Now? Wood pushed back on the idea that bitcoin has “lost its mojo” as gold has outperformed in recent years, starting with a statistical point. “First thing you should know, Bitcoin and gold are not correlated. We did the analysis […] the correlation […] is as close to zero as you can get so no correlation,” she said, adding that in the last two market cycles, gold led bitcoin before the crypto asset caught up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike In 2 Years Her more forceful warning was directed at gold’s positioning versus broad money. “You’ll find this […] a chart showing gold divided by M2. It has only been—it has never been higher. It hit a new all-time high this week,” Wood said, arguing the setup resembles historical extremes that coincided with very different macro regimes. “Gold is probably riding for a fall […] The last two times it was anywhere near this was in the massive inflation […] in the 70s early 80s and […] the Great Depression.” Wood said the stablecoin boom has absorbed some of bitcoin’s “emerging markets” transaction narrative, but she characterized that as a payments-layer substitution rather than a savings-layer replacement. “That’s just for the equivalent of a checking account. When they want real savings, they’re going to buy Bitcoin, we believe,” she said, tying the view to ARK’s long-term upside case. She referenced a bull-case target of $1.5 million by 2030 in the conversation, alongside the firm’s previously discussed seven-figure framework. Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This Her core comparative claim against gold centered on issuance. “The supply growth of Bitcoin is 0.8% per year and it’ll drop to 0.4 in another two years,” Wood said, contrasting it with gold supply growth she pegged at about 1% on average and suggesting mining output could run higher than bitcoin’s deterministic issuance rate. She also pointed to “intergenerational wealth transfer” as a potential tailwind for bitcoin over time. Wood also offered a more tactical explanation for why bitcoin has struggled to sustain upside momentum, pointing to what she described as an October 10 “flash crash” tied to a software glitch at Binance and an auto-deleveraging cascade. “There was a flash crash caused by a software glitch at Binance and there was an auto deleveraging event,” she said. “People were just […] margin called to the tune of about 28 billion dollars […] and we think that is just now washing through the system.” Because bitcoin is “the most liquid of all crypto assets,” Wood argued it becomes “the first margin call,” making it the primary source of forced selling during broad deleveraging. She suggested that overhang is now fading, but her comments came before Monday’s downdraft that saw bitcoin slide to $74,600. In the interview, she said the market was “testing […] around 80,000 again” and expected it to “hold in the 80 to 90,000 range” absent a major geopolitical shock. “Unless all hell breaks loose in Iran […] then maybe we’ll see the store of value come back for Bitcoin,” she added. At press time, BTC traded at $78,377. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Flows and on-chain data signaled defensive positioning, as crypto investment products logged $1.7 billion in weekly outflows.

Tom Lee—long known for bullish takes—says crypto prices may be close to their floor. According to his comments on TV, he sees signs that buying pressure could return if the economic and on-chain backdrop holds. Related Reading: Gold Vs. XRP: One Asset Just Added 20x The Other’s Market Value During an interview on CNBC, Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research, said the current market setup could improve as fundamentals continue to firm up. That view sits alongside a big loss at his firm, which raises questions about how confident outside observers should be. Market Moves And Capital Flows Reports say capital moved sharply into precious metals as traders sought cover, and that flow drained money away from crypto. Gold and silver had run-ups that drew cash. At the same time, some market players were already light on borrowed positions. That mix left prices more exposed than many expected. “I think as long as crypto fundamentals are good, then crypto prices should follow,” says Tom Lee of @Fundstrat:https://t.co/pldeBkwChZ — Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) February 2, 2026 Big Sales And Liquidations About $2.56 billion in Bitcoin liquidations were recorded during the sharp swings this week, as traders closed out positions and risk appetite faded. Reports have disclosed that large sells pushed Bitcoin below key levels, and it dipped under $78,000 for a spell. BitMine, the firm tied to Lee, is reported to be sitting on roughly $6.95 billion in unrealized losses, a fact that complicates any narrative about neutral observers calling a bottom. Signals That Could Mark A Turn Reports note an uptick in Ethereum active accounts and growing work by big financial firms to build products on the network. Those are the kinds of measures that, over time, tend to reflect deeper demand than short-term speculation. A BitMine adviser has projected targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum—$77,000 and $2,400 respectively—and some say those levels could signal exhausted selling if reached. But the market has been jittery, and numbers on the screen can change fast. Policy Noise And Geopolitics Matter Policy moves in Washington have been flagged as a source of extra uncertainty. Some decisions by regulators and lawmakers are viewed as favoring certain firms or sectors, which adds to the uneven tone across risk assets. On top of that, tensions in the Middle East have pushed investors toward safe havens. When politics and geopolitics both push in the same direction, crypto tends to feel that pull. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Pull Nearly $3 Billion, Pushing Average Buy Below Water Even if fundamentals look okay, timing is crucial. Liquidity conditions can tighten quickly if sentiment turns, and that can make any rebound short-lived or shallow. Reports say traders are watching for tapering in liquidations and clearer signs that flows into metals have paused before they will step back in with confidence. There is a case that the worst selling has happened. There is also a case that prices can fall further if a shock hits. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025 and is now moving through a correction phase following the local peak near $125,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? On-chain data supports this interpretation. Two key indicators — Percent Unrealised Loss and the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio — point to mounting stress across the holder base, but without the hallmarks of full capitulation. Unrealised losses have risen sharply, tripling since January from roughly 7% to around 22% as prices declined from $95,000 to near $78,000. While this increase signals growing discomfort among investors, it remains well below the 40–60% levels historically associated with deep bear-market capitulation in 2019 and 2023. At the same time, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has dropped around 40% from its peaks, indicating compressed profitability and reduced willingness to sell at a loss, particularly among longer-term holders. Together, these signals suggest Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle stress phase: pressure is building, confidence is weakening, but widespread forced selling has not yet emerged. Profit Compression Without Capitulation Signals Adler also highlights the behavior of the Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR Ratio as a critical lens for understanding the current market phase. This metric compares the profitability of coins being spent by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), offering insight into who is absorbing losses and who is still distributing coins at a profit. High readings indicate that long-term holders are realizing profits far more efficiently than short-term participants, while lower values imply growing loss realization among newer entrants. Since peaking near 1.85 in October, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen to around 1.13, representing a decline of roughly 40%. This sharp compression reflects a clear deterioration in profitability across the market. However, the indicator remains above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, sustained moves below 1.0 have marked periods where short-term holders capitulate en masse, selling at significant losses. Deeper drops into the 0.6–0.8 range coincided with full capitulation and cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2023. At the current level, profit margins are tightening for both cohorts, but long-term holders are still, on average, exiting positions above cost. Adler notes that a decisive break below 1.0 would signal a transition into true capitulation, while a recovery toward 1.3–1.4 would indicate renewed confidence. Taken together with rising unrealised losses, the data points to a mid-cycle stress phase rather than a terminal bear-market bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off Bitcoin price action on the 12-hour chart reflects a market still under structural pressure. Despite a short-term stabilization attempt around the $78,000 zone. After an aggressive sell-off from the mid-$90,000s, BTC broke decisively below multiple key moving averages. This confirms a broader bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. The sharp downside impulse was accompanied by a notable spike in volume. Signaling forced selling and liquidation-driven flows rather than orderly profit-taking. Since tagging the local low near $78,000, the price has attempted a modest rebound. However, this bounce remains technically weak. Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term and medium-term moving averages. Which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Previous support in the $88,000–$90,000 region has clearly flipped into a supply zone. Capping upside attempts and reinforcing the idea of a range forming beneath a broken structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The current consolidation appears more consistent with a relief pause than a trend reversal. Momentum has slowed, but there is no evidence yet of sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand stepping in. As long as BTC remains below the descending moving averages, downside risks persist. The price is vulnerable to renewed tests of the recent lows. Reclaiming and holding above the $82,000–$85,000 area would be required to signal a meaningful shift in short-term structure. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price extended its decline below $75,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $72,850 but faces many hurdles near $76,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $74,000 and $75,000. The price is trading below $79,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $76,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $73,500. A low was formed at $72,865, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $75,000. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. However, the bears are active near $77,000 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $77,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $79,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000 and $80,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,000 level. The first major support is near the $74,000 level. The next support is now near the $72,850 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,000, followed by $74,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,750 and $77,200.

Bitcoin continues to trade below the $80,000 level as the market remains under sustained selling pressure and heightened uncertainty. Recent price action reflects a fragile environment in which downside moves are met with limited conviction from buyers, while broader risk sentiment across crypto stays defensive. As volatility persists, analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain indicators to assess whether the market is approaching exhaustion—or if further downside still lies ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? A new report from CryptoQuant highlights a notable deterioration in holder profitability through the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has fallen to its lowest levels of the past year. The SOPR measures whether coins being spent are moving at a profit or a loss, offering insight into the behavior of different investor cohorts during periods of stress. One key observation is the convergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). The SOPR ratio has dropped sharply toward the critical 1.0 level, indicating that long-term holders are realizing significantly less profit than before—or are choosing to stop selling altogether at current prices. This behavior suggests a growing reluctance to distribute coins into weakness, even as short-term participants continue to face losses. With Bitcoin still below key psychological levels, the evolution of SOPR will be closely watched. Whether this shift marks early stabilization or simply a pause before deeper capitulation remains an open question for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Selling Exhaustion, Not Capitulation The report adds that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors the deterioration seen in SOPR. The price (black line) has reached a local low near $77,900. Aligning with the sharp drop in the ratio toward its lowest levels of the past year. This synchronization suggests that realized selling pressure has intensified alongside the decline in profitability, reinforcing the view that the market has moved into a stress phase rather than a routine pullback. From a sentiment perspective, historically depressed SOPR readings have often coincided with moments when so-called “smart money” reduces selling activity. When coins are no longer being spent at a meaningful profit, long-term holders tend to step back, allowing selling pressure to subside. In past cycles, similar conditions have preceded periods of accumulation or the formation of local market floors. Although timing has varied widely. Two scenarios now stand out. If the SOPR stabilizes around the 1.0 level, it would suggest that heavy distribution from long-term investors is largely exhausted. Creating room for a relief bounce as marginal demand returns. Alternatively, the steep, momentum-driven drop in price increases the likelihood of extended sideways consolidation, as the market digests recent volatility before establishing a clearer trend. In summary, the data points to a flush market. With SOPR at yearly lows, weaker hands appear to have exited, shifting the balance toward longer-term value considerations over short-term fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Averages Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights a market under sustained pressure, despite a modest rebound off recent lows. Price is currently hovering around the $78,000 area after briefly dipping toward the mid-$70,000s, a zone that has acted as an important short-term demand pocket. This bounce, however, has so far lacked follow-through and does not yet signal a structural trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages. The price is trading well under the 100-day and 200-day averages, both of which are now sloping downward. This configuration reinforces the broader bearish bias and suggests that rallies are still being sold into rather than accumulated aggressively. The prior support region between $85,000 and $90,000 has clearly flipped into resistance. Confirming a change in market structure compared to late 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? The sell-off into the $74,000–$76,000 range was accompanied by elevated volume. The subsequent rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies short-covering or tactical buying rather than renewed conviction from longer-term investors. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase into a consolidation or corrective regime. As long as the price remains below reclaimed resistance and fails to regain key moving averages, downside risks remain active. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst and Elliott Wave expert Gert van Lagen has highlighted a critical level that could determine the next move in the Bitcoin price. In a recently shared 2-week chart, Lagen points to a broader market structure that suggests Bitcoin may be preparing for another strong upward leg, provided it continues to hold above $74,000. According to the analyst, this level now serves as a key support zone, marking the boundary between bull-market continuation and a potentially more concerning structural breakdown.  Why $74,000 Matters For Bitcoin Price Bull Structure In an X post, Lagen shared a detailed analysis of Bitcoin, predicting its next price move based on Elliott wave structures. His accompanying chart shows BTC completing an extended corrective phase following a multi-year rally. This correction, labeled Wave IV, has pulled the price back into a previous consolidation zone without disrupting the broader bullish structure. As long as Bitcoin remains above $74,400, the analyst views this move as a healthy reset rather than the beginning of an extended bear market. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Dogecoin, And XRP Price Are Crashing This Week Looking back at earlier phases of the cycle helps explain why the $74,400 support level is so critical. Lagen noted that during the build-up to Wave III, Bitcoin experienced a deep retracement that nearly revisited the low from the previous corrective wave before pushing higher. The cryptocurrency’s current price action appears to follow the same pattern, with the latest pullback approaching the bottom of Wave IV at mid-$70,000. This type of pattern repetition is common in Elliott Wave structures and often signals that the market may be preparing for a stronger upward move. In line with this, Lagen highlighted that BTC’s recent price movements match the characteristics of a Wave II correction within a broader Wave V advance. He said that $74,000 remains in the invalidation area. Holding above it keeps Bitcoin’s bullish outlook intact, while a decisive break below it would force a reassessment of BTC’s entire market structure. In any case, the analyst has stated he does not expect Bitcoin to break this support zone.  What The Chart Says About Bitcoin’s Next Move If the $74,400 support level continues to hold, the projected path on Lagen’s chart suggests the start of a new impulsive rally that would mark the early phase of Wave V. The initial move higher is expected to push the Bitcoin price back above previous highs, signaling that the corrective phase has ended and momentum has flipped back in favor of the bulls. According to the analyst, if Bitcoin continues to mirror past patterns, a bearish outcome remains less likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Still Rally Above $99,000 Despite Bearish Sentiment, Here’s Why Looking at his chart, Lagen has projected that Bitcoin could experience a bullish continuation toward the $260,000 to $320,000 region, which aligns with sub-wave 3, the strongest phase of a Wave V advance. Following this, the final extension of Wave V is expected to push Bitcoin toward $400,000, reflecting a final-cycle advance and representing a surge of more than 410% from current levels around $78,000. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin slid to a year-to-date low of $74,500 on Monday, a move that wiped roughly 38% off its peak. Markets reacted sharply, and traders felt the pinch as flows out of big funds accelerated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Suppression? Analyst Claims Single Force Keeping Price Under $90K Fund Flows And Market Mood According to reports, global crypto exchange-traded products saw heavy withdrawals last week. Big US spot ETFs led the selling, and that pushed overall fund flows into deep negative territory. Based on Bitwise’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass report, Bitcoin’s recent drop pushed its two-year rolling MVRV z-score to a record low, a level tied to undervaluation and suggesting fire-sale conditions for the asset. Sentiment gauges fell hard. Reports note that a two-year rolling MVRV z-score — a measure comparing market price to the average cost basis of holders, adjusted for volatility — hit its lowest reading ever. That kind of number points to widespread selling and prices that many investors now view as distressed. Buying Interest On The Spot Market On shorter time frames, signs of buying have appeared. The daily RSI plunged into the low 20s. This is a level that has often been followed by quick rebounds. Spot volume data on major venues such as Binance and Coinbase showed net aggressive buying as Bitcoin bounced back toward about $79,420. Open interest did not spike. Funding rates stayed negative. In plain terms: people were buying on the spot market rather than piling into leveraged long bets, which reduces the chance of a cascade of forced liquidations that can make moves messier. Capitulation And Liquidations Reports say long positions were crushed last week, with close to 2 billion in BTC long liquidations recorded across derivatives markets. That pain can clear the field for fresh entrants. At the same time, there are multiple billions of dollars of short positions clustered near higher price levels, around $85,000, that could be hit if Bitcoin climbs. Short-covering could add fuel to a bounce. Market structure now offers a mix of strong selling behind prices and real buying in front of them. Where Support Might Hold Based on reports, buying interest combined with very low valuation metrics could create an asymmetric trade. That means the potential upside may be larger than the near-term downside, at least for traders willing to accept volatility. Historically, dips into the RSI zone seen last week have led to roughly 10% rebounds most of the time since August 2023, although outcomes vary and nothing is guaranteed. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Pull Nearly $3 Billion, Pushing Average Buy Below Water A Quiet But Real Conclusion Institutional flows remain cautious. Major products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the iShares Bitcoin Trust posted sizable outflows, signaling that some big holders stepped back. Yet, on-chain and spot-volume signals hint that bargain hunting has started. The near-term path will probably be bumpy. Traders who want exposure will need to weigh the low valuation readings and pockets of buying against the very real possibility of further weakness if sentiment deteriorates again. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals are flashing a powerful signal that hasn’t appeared since the last major bull run. Network Growth has surged to extreme levels, mirroring the same conditions seen in early 2021, just before BTC launched its historic rally toward new all-time highs. At the same time, liquidity is rapidly expanding across the market, suggesting fresh capital is flowing in. Rising Network Adoption Strengthens Long-Term Bull Thesis The last time Bitcoin’s network growth and liquidity reached comparable extreme levels was in 2021, just ahead of BTC’s final surge to a new all-time high. Swissblock revealed on X that these metrics are now showing signs of recovery, signaling that a final bullish phase may be forming.  Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now However, the current divergence and rising metrics alongside the declining price action suggest that investors are re-entering the market primarily to sell. The critical question is whether this renewed participation can persist long enough to allow the market to stabilize. If Network Growth and Liquidity continue to expand sustainably, they could provide the fundamental catalyst for one last upside push before the cycle concludes. FUD has intensified across social media following Bitcoin’s roughly 16% decline since January 28. Santiment has highlighted that after briefly dipping to around $74,600, BTC has rebounded toward $78,300, a move largely attributed to retail selling assets. This behavior is proof that markets move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s narrative. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with social data indicating this is the most bearish that retail has seen since the November 21st crash. Historically, periods of extreme negativity like this have been followed by a short-term relief rally, and early price action suggests this bounce is beginning to resemble the previous two post-FUD recoveries. How Next Cycle Leg Could Push Bitcoin To $104,000 Market expert and investor, The Milk Road, who previously nailed Bitcoin’s drop from its all-time highs, is now predicting a potential 40% gain starting immediately. According to Milk Road, BTC could still experience a correction ranging from -20% to -77% before the next major pivot, which is projected between November 19 and February 2. A shallow 20 to 34% drop seems unlikely. Locally, it should be more than that but smaller than 77%.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Performance Shows How Low The Price Will Go Before A Bottom Furthermore, BTC fell roughly -40% between its October 6, 2025, ATH and February 2, a move consistent with prior cycle behavior. Milk Road’s yearly cycle analysis signals a key pivot around February 2, after which BTC could stage a +40% rally, potentially reaching $104,000 between now and September. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off.  He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months.  He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build  Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s bear-market turn can be traced to Oct. 10, 2025, a session widely described as the largest crypto derivatives liquidation event on record, with roughly $19 billion in futures positions forcibly unwound as prices slid sharply off their highs. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues the damage was structural as much as directional: open interest fell by about 70,000 BTC in a single day, wiping out months of leverage build-up and leaving speculation struggling to re-form. He claims that the Oct. 10 flush was “really the one that pushed BTC into a bear market” because of the speed and magnitude of liquidity destruction in futures. Why October 10 Was The Bitcoin Bear Market Beginning Darkfost pointed to a collapse in open interest measured in BTC terms. “In a single day, around 70,000 BTC were wiped out from Open Interest, bringing it back to its April 2025 levels,” he wrote. “That’s the equivalent of more than six months of Open Interest accumulation erased in one session. Since then, Open Interest has been stagnating and struggling to rebuild.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The implication is less about the specific catalyst for the selloff and more about market structure after it. In Darkfost’s telling, the Oct. 10 event wasn’t just a price move; it was a sudden reduction in the market’s capacity to carry leverage, which tends to compress speculative activity across the complex. “Liquidity destruction in an already uncertain crypto market environment is not conducive to a return of speculation, which is nonetheless a key component of the crypto market,” he added. That view resonated with Bitcoin Capital, which replied that “nothing has been the same after 10/10,” adding that “it actually feels like something broke.” Darkfost’s response was blunt about the path back: “It needs to be rebuilt and it can takes months …” In a follow-up post, Darkfost widened the lens beyond derivatives, describing an environment where spot participation has also cooled. He said Bitcoin is entering a fifth consecutive month of correction, with the October 10 event as a major driver due to its impact on futures liquidity, but “not the only factor at play.” Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This He flagged broader liquidity pressure via stablecoin flows and supply. According to his figures, stablecoin outflows from exchanges have coincided with an approximate $10 billion decline in aggregate stablecoin market capitalization over the same period, an additional headwind for risk-taking, particularly when leverage is already being de-risked. Spot volumes, he argued, tell a similar story of disengagement. Since October, BTC spot volumes have been cut roughly in half, with Binance still holding the largest share at $104 billion. He contrasted that with October levels when Binance volume “had nearly reached $200B,” alongside $53 billion on Gate.io and $47 billion on Bybit. Darkfost characterized the contraction as a return to “levels among the lowest observed since 2024,” and read it as weaker demand rather than simply a lull in activity. The current setup, he wrote, “remains uncertain and does not encourage risk-taking,” arguing that a durable recovery would require monitoring liquidity conditions and, “above all,” seeing spot trading volumes return. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,723. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp sell‑off has intensified pressure on Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, even as it continues to expand its already massive cryptocurrency holdings. On Monday, the firm disclosed another BTC purchase at a time when prices were sliding to levels not seen in almost a year. Strategy Adds Bitcoin During Market Sell‑Off According to a securities filing released on Monday, Strategy acquired an additional 855 Bitcoin over the prior seven days, paying an average price of about $87,974 per token. The transaction amounted to roughly $75.3 million and further increased the company’s exposure to Bitcoin. The timing of the purchase, however, coincided with a steep downturn in the broader crypto market. Bitcoin fell below Strategy’s average acquisition cost toward $74,500, adding to investor unease.  Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? That price sat slightly below Strategy’s reported average purchase price of $76,052 per Bitcoin, raising concerns that the company’s sizable holdings could move underwater if the decline deepens. Market reaction was swift. MSTR fell 8% on Monday as Bitcoin slid below that average cost level. When Bitcoin briefly sank to its lowest point since April 2024, the value of Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings stood at approximately $53.1 billion.  A subsequent rebound toward around $79,000 lifted the valuation of the company’s Bitcoin position beyond $55 billion, offering some relief but little clarity on near‑term direction. Worst In The Nasdaq 100 So far, Strategy’s shares have suffered a steep decline. The stock is down 48% in 2025, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100 index. For comparison, the second‑worst stock in the index, Charter Communications, has fallen 39% over the same period, underscoring the scale of Strategy’s underperformance. Amid these challenges, Strategy is also scheduled to release its fourth‑quarter 2025 results on Thursday. Wall Street expectations suggest modest top‑line pressure but a sharp improvement in profitability.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for fourth‑quarter revenue of $119.6 million, representing a 0.91% decline from the same period a year earlier. Earnings, however, are projected at $46.02 per share, unchanged over the past month and a dramatic turnaround from a loss of $3.20 per share reported in the prior‑year quarter. Analysts expect the company’s fourth‑quarter performance to reflect continued financial momentum, driven largely by Bitcoin‑related gains and disciplined capital allocation.  Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers By the end of January 2026, the firm’s Bitcoin holdings had climbed to approximately 712,647 BTC, up from 640,808 as of Oct. 26, 2025, further increasing its sensitivity to price movements in the digital asset.  Still, recent share price performance highlights the risks tied to that strategy. Over the past three months, MSTR has fallen 43.4%, significantly underperforming the broader Finance sector, which gained 4.3% over the same period.  The stock has also lagged other Bitcoin‑exposed companies. During that timeframe, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Coinbase Global posted declines of 25.3%, 32.0% and 41.1%, respectively, pointing to widespread weakness among Bitcoin proxy stocks, though none have fallen as sharply as Strategy. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume on Binance has taken one of its most negative values in recent years as the cryptocurrency’s price has plunged. Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume Has Fallen Deep Into Red Zone As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has seen a notable uptick in bearish sentiment on Binance. The “Net Taker Volume” here refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of taker buy or sell volume present in a given futures market. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the taker buy volume outweighs the taker sell volume on the platform. Such a trend implies a bullish sentiment is shared by the majority of the futures traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark suggests a bearish mentality is dominating the exchange as taker sell volume is outpacing the taker buy volume. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin Net Taker Volume for Binance over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume has witnessed a steep decline into the negative territory recently, suggesting a spike in bearish positioning. The red spike has arrived as the cryptocurrency has gone through a rapid drawdown that has taken its value below the $80,000 level. “This is the 3rd largest sell-off by Sell Taker Volume Dominance in the last 2 years,” noted the analyst. The two spikes in this window that were larger in magnitude came in October as the asset’s price crashed following its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000. In the past, Bitcoin has often tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. As such, it only remains to be seen how the coin will develop in the near future, given this dominance of short sentiment. “At some point, the best risk-reward flips long,” said Maartunn. “We’re getting close.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? In related news, the digital asset derivatives sector has gone through some chaos as BTC and other assets have observed volatility. According to data from CoinGlass, derivatives platforms handled over $783 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. Out of these $484 million of the contracts involved were long positions. $300 million of the liquidations still involved bearish bets as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen some rebound in this window. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly dipped all the way under $75,000 on Sunday, but the asset has since bounced a bit as it’s now trading around $78,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

A resurgent U.S. dollar index, which has logged its strongest two-day gain in nine months, could arrest potential bitcoin recovery.

Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold $2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin rebounded toward $79,000 after dipping below $75,000 over the weekend, as traders weighed heavy liquidation-driven selling against macro tailwinds and a potential inflection point for crypto markets.

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown is being framed less as a technical breakdown and more as a liquidity problem, with Ki Young Ju arguing that the key inputs that sustained the rally fresh capital inflows have stalled. In that setup, he says, calls for a full-cycle, -70% style capitulation hinge on a single variable: whether Strategy turns from buyer to meaningful seller. Will Bitcoin Experience Another -70% Bear Market? In a Feb. 1 post, Ki said “Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in.” He pointed to a flatlining Realized Cap as evidence that incremental money is no longer entering the market, and tied that directly to market structure. “Realized Cap” has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital. When market cap falls in that environment, it’s not a bull market.” His read is that the profit-taking has been there for a while, it was simply absorbed. Early holders, he wrote, were “sitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR buying,” and “have been taking profits since early last year, but strong inflows kept Bitcoin near 100K.” The change now, in his telling, is that the bid that mattered most has faded: “Now those inflows have dried up.” Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Rises Again Amid Bearish Market Dynamics That’s where the crash math changes. Ki described Strategy (MSTR) as “a major driver of this rally,” but argued the reflexive downside seen in prior cycles is unlikely without a decisive reversal from the company’s balance sheet strategy. “Unless Saylor significantly dumps his stack, we won’t see a -70% crash like previous cycles,” he wrote, carving out an explicit condition rather than presenting the drawdown as inevitable. Even so, he didn’t claim the market has found a floor. “Selling pressure is still ongoing, so the bottom isn’t clear yet,” Ki said, adding that the more probable path is time, not a straight-line liquidation. His base case is “a wide-ranging sideways consolidation,” a regime where volatility can persist but direction becomes harder to sustain without new marginal buyers. Stablecoin Liquidity Dries Up CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost added color on what “no fresh capital” looks like in the plumbing. He argued stablecoin activity, often treated as a near-term proxy for deployable crypto liquidity, has rolled over sharply as uncertainty stays elevated. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now “The crypto market is currently going through a delicate phase, marked by a structural lack of liquidity in a context of persistently high uncertainty,” he wrote, calling it an environment “not conducive to risk taking,” especially relative to assets like precious metals and equities that are still drawing flows. Darkfost said the stablecoin market had expanded by more than $140 billion since 2023, but that total stablecoin market capitalization began declining in December, “putting an end to this sustained growth trend.” The more actionable signal, he argued, is exchange flows: “Strong inflows generally indicate a willingness to gain exposure to the market, while outflows instead suggest capital preservation and a reduction in risk.” He highlighted October as the last clear liquidity-heavy month, when “average monthly stablecoin netflows exceeded $9.7B,” with nearly $8.8B concentrated on Binance alone—conditions that “supported Bitcoin’s rally toward a new all time high.” Since November, he said, those inflows have been “largely wiped out,” with an initial $9.6 billion drop, then a brief stabilization, followed by renewed net outflows of more than $4 billion, including $3.1 billion from Binance. At press time, BTC traded at $78,280. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin slid hard over the weekend and stayed low into Monday, leaving traders on edge and pushing many to reduce risk. Prices slipped from roughly $84,000 to about $74,600 in a matter of days, a drop that erased a chunk of recent gains and forced quick reassessments across markets. Nervousness around Federal Reserve leadership, rising job worries, and fresh geopolitical flashpoints all piled up at once. Related Reading: Gold Vs. XRP: One Asset Just Added 20x The Other’s Market Value Average ETF Price Above Market According to Coinglass, the combined assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs sit near $113 billion, while reports note they hold around 1.28 million BTC. Based on those figures, the typical ETF buying price works out to an average of roughly $87,830 per coin — well above current trading levels. That gap means many ETF positions are showing losses on paper right now. Some funds kept buying earlier and are holding positions that are underwater. BTC is trading below the U.S. ETFs avg cost basis after the 2nd & 3rd biggest outflow weeks ever (last week and week before) (and last week’s outflow will increase after IBIT reports friday’s numbers tomorrow) this means the average bitcoin ETF purchase is underwater pic.twitter.com/XowzrnBaSM — Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) February 2, 2026 Outflows Pick Up Over the last two weeks, investors pulled close to $3 billion from the 11 spot ETFs, with one week seeing $1.50 billion leave and the prior week $1.30 billion, according to CoinGlass. Those moves suggest some market participants are locking in gains or cutting exposure after the recent run-up. At the same time, cumulative ETF inflows remain materially lower than earlier peaks; buying has not fully come back even as some holders remain steady. Technical Signals And Bear Fears Reports note that spot BTC is down roughly 40% from its October peak while ETF AUM has fallen by about 31%. That divergence has analysts warning that sustained weak demand could push Bitcoin into a deeper downtrend. Technical charts show longer-term sell pressure building in certain measures. If demand fails to reappear, momentum could carry prices lower and extend selling across crypto markets. Policy, Politics, And Market Mood Market watchers point to extra uncertainty around monetary policy and geopolitics as fuel for the recent moves. Reports have disclosed that the proposed US Clarity Act stalled in Washington. At the same time, headlines about tensions in the Middle East and trade friction added to a rush for traditional safe havens like gold and the dollar. Even a hint of policy change matters: US President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair was discussed by investors as another factor shaping expectations. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Liquidity And The Road Ahead Institutional holders have not all capitulated. Many have been described as holding on, which can cushion sharp drops. But when the average cost basis for major ETF holders is above the current market price, confidence can be fragile. Liquidity has thinned in certain windows, and that makes price swings larger. A recovery requires renewed buying from both retail and big investors, otherwise sellers may dictate direction for longer. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price extended its decline below $78,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $74,500 but faces many hurdles near $80,000. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $77,000 and $78,000. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $77,000 and $76,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $82,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $80,000 and $79,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $78,000. It spared major bearish moves, pushing the price below $76,000. A low was formed at $74,543, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $78,000. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $78,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $77,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $80,000 level. A close above the $80,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $90,440 swing high to the $74,543 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $84,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000 and $85,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level. The next support is now near the $76,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $72,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,000, followed by $76,000. Major Resistance Levels – $79,200 and $80,000.

Crypto could be getting ready to gallop as the year of the horse sets up a fresh run higher across ETH, BTC, and other digital assets.

As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday.  The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated.  They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum.  While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart.  If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully.  A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range.  Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact.  If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Since the recent Bitcoin price crash to $76,000, the broader crypto market has been on high alert, with sentiment shifting to extreme fear levels. A crypto analyst who has shared insights on Bitcoin’s latest market movements predicts more pain for the leading cryptocurrency. He has also warned investors against taking advantage of the decline and buying BTC during this highly volatile and unpredictable period.  Analyst Warns Not To Go Long After Bitcoin Price Crash Crypto analyst Tyrex has warned investors against going long on Bitcoin following the recent price crash. Over the weekend, BTC experienced another devastating decline, dropping by more than 14% according to CoinMarketCap. For some investors, this drop may appear as an opportunity to buy the dip and go long on the leading cryptocurrency. However, Tyrex advises against making such a move. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? The analyst stated in an X post on February 1, 2026, that Bitcoin had crashed to a new low around $76,000 on January 31, confirming a bearish breakout. He noted that, based on past market movements in which similar setups occurred, excluding fakeouts, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to stage a full recovery back to $85,000. Instead, he said the price is more likely to keep dumping until it completes its downside move and reaches a price discovery at lower levels.  Tyrex cited Bitcoin’s price action in May 2021, May 2022, and June 22, noting that massive price crashes occurred during these periods after similar breaks in market structure. He said Bitcoin failed to recover quickly in each case and actually continued to crash on the daily chart after the main red candle was printed.    The analyst’s accompanying Bitcoin chart shows the cryptocurrency trading above $79,000 at the time of his analysis, after it initiated a slight recovery from its previous low near $76,000. He projected on the chart that Bitcoin could soon resume its decline and fall toward the $75,400 region, representing a more than 4.5% decline.  Tyrex added that a major support level sits around the $74,000 level on the weekly chart, which could temporarily hold off further downside. According to Tyrex, this level is equivalent to a key support near $2,100 for Ethereum.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Chainlink Price Could Crash 50% If This Level Fails Analyst Shares Highly Likely BTC Decline In his analysis, Tyrex stated that, given Bitcoin’s latest price crash, structural weakness, and past cycle trends, he expects the cryptocurrency to retest recent lows once again. Considering his view that a recovery is unlikely, the analyst suggests that the near-term outlook for BTC is predominantly bearish.  He noted that the $74,000 support is the main area for potential long positions. However, he expressed caution, noting that this level may not be particularly strong since it is relatively distant on the weekly chart and could be broken if Bitcoin continues its downward trend.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com