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Bitcoin is nearing a level on the MVRV ratio that historically lines up with market “undervaluation,” according to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, as traders look for signs that a four-month drawdown from October 2025’s all-time high is shifting from distribution into accumulation. Is Bitcoin Undervalued? In a post on X, Korean Dan said Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” arguing that the market is getting close to a threshold that has often marked compelling risk-reward for longer-horizon buyers. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming “After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for approximately 4 months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “Generally speaking, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is considered to be undervalued. The current value is around 1.1, which can be seen as being close to the undervalued zone.” The MVRV framing matters because the metric has tended to compress toward 1 around prior cycle lows. The chart shared alongside the post shows the ratio at roughly 1.10, with earlier sub-1.0 dips highlighted around past bottoming windows. Crypto Dan cautioned that traders shouldn’t assume the current setup will rhyme perfectly with prior drawdowns, specifically because the preceding advance looked different on valuation measures. “ However, unlike previous cycles, it is necessary to recognize that in this cycle, Bitcoin did not sharply rise all the way into the overvalued zone during the uptrend,” he wrote. “Accordingly, the pattern of the decline may also appear differently from the previous bottom zones, so it seems prudent to prepare for that possibility in our response.” That caveat became the focal point of a short back-and-forth in replies. One user, onlyus8x, suggested that if Bitcoin reached this cycle’s prior all-time high more than three times faster than before, the downturn could also resolve faster—“might the winter also pass 3 times faster?” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K Crypto Dan pushed back on a simple speed analogy, replying: “Because there are differences from your past, I personally set the criteria differently from past decline cycles by comprehensively judging these things as well.” Mayer Multiple And The 200-Week MA A separate post from analyst Will Clemente pointed to two long-watched, price-based benchmarks that are also pressing into historically constructive ranges. “Throughout Bitcoin’s life span we have seen two indicators continue to be the best global market bottom signals: The Mayer multiple (distance from 200 day moving average) and the 200 week moving average,” Clemente wrote. “Both of these are clearly in long term accumulation territory.” The charts he shared show a Mayer Multiple around 0.60, alongside a backtest table that flags prior instances when the indicator fell to roughly that level. The same image placed Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average near $57,926, with Bitcoin shown about 15% above it and a note that it has “not yet touched” that line in the current drawdown. At press time, BTC traded at $67,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have long been shaped by shifting liquidity, investor behavior, and macroeconomic forces, but identifying true structural changes has often proved challenging. Currently, a high-precision metric is emerging as a clear signal for detecting when BTC’s market dynamics are fundamentally shifting rather than simply experiencing short-term volatility. As BTC matures as a global asset, tools like this are helping investors move beyond speculation and toward data-driven insights that reveal the network’s true direction. What This Metric Signal Has Marked In Every Bitcoin Previous Cycle The Bitcoin Realized Cap impulse is one of the most precise metrics that has ever been created to identify true structural change in BTC. Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, revealed on X that when the Realized Cap impulse long-term turns negative, it signals that the market uncertainty has entered a fear-driven phase defined by capital flow, not sentiment.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Deeper Into Correction With Spot Demand Drying Up – What To Know The metric signals a critical imbalance that, even as BTC ETFs accumulate and large institutions like MicroStrategy continue to add to their positions, incoming capital is still not enough to absorb the period when supply exceeds demand. BTC is fundamentally driven by supply absorption, and if incoming capital can not absorb the supply exiting circulation or remaining inactive, the result will be structural weakness in price. However, reversing this scenario would require a significantly higher level of accumulation, which is several times greater than the current pace, allowing for structural metrics indicators like the Realized Cap impulse to consistently turn upward again. This is the part that few investors understand.  Wedson noted that long-term holders and the true OGs are the original participants who are controlling a large share of BTC’s supply. Historically, their behavior has defined every major market cycle. This metric does not track narratives; instead, it measures who is truly in control. Why The Current Environment Limits Bitcoin Short-Term Upside The clearest way to understand the broader environment in which Bitcoin is evolving today is by examining the Bitcoin Z-Score heatmap. Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted that this examination would bring together several core factors influencing the BTC price action into a single framework and offer a high-level view of the market’s overall on-chain health. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped In Bear Market Woes As Liquidity Runs Dry, Is Another Crash Coming? According to Darkfost, this heatmap aggregates key indicators data tied to demand, liquidity, and BTC valuation levels, effectively summarizing whether the market structure is improving or deteriorating. However, all of these indicators remain firmly in the red, signaling that the underlying environment of BTC has not yet shifted toward recovery. As long as these indicators continue to reflect weak demand and constrained liquidity, the structural backdrop for BTC will be unable to reach new highs in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The recent slide of Bitcoin has punched a hole in short-term holders’ wallets and left loud questions about where prices might settle next. Markets are jittery; people who bought high are taking losses. Some sellers reacted fast, and that rush shows up in on-chain numbers. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In Realized Losses Hit Historical Levels According to CryptoQuant and an analyst writing under the name IT Tech, Bitcoin’s seven-day average of realized net losses climbed to about $2.3 billion — a figure that puts this sell-off among the largest loss events on record. “This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction,” IT Tech said. This spike in losses means many traders sold at a loss over the span of a week, not just a day. Price Action And Market Context Reports say Bitcoin fell sharply from its recent peak and has been bouncing between support lines that traders watch closely. After topping near $126,000, the token traded as low as about $60,000 earlier in the month and has been seen around $66,600 on recent checks. That gap is large, and it explains why panic selling pushed realized losses so high. Signs Pointing To Capitulation Reports note that on-chain indicators tied to profit and loss show losses are rising faster than gains. One contributor at CryptoQuant, GugaOnChain, flagged a Z-Score reading that he describes as consistent with deep capitulation — a phase where more holders give up than buy. When that happens, markets often become chaotic first and steady later. What Analysts Are Saying Now Reports say some market commentators expect pressure to continue for a while. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst, described the market as being in “full capitulation mode,” and warned selling could persist for months before clearer footing appears. Others point out that heavy losses can also clear the way for patient buyers later. Where Bottoms Have Lived Before Reports have disclosed that CryptoQuant’s measure of the “realized price” sits near $55,000 — a level that has been linked in past cycles to the end of big sell-offs and the start of sideways consolidation. That does not mean a floor has formed this time; it only marks a region where past buyers, on average, stopped losing money on their holdings. Markets have traded well below similar marks before they steadied, so history offers patterns, not guarantees. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K What This Means For Traders And Investors Short term, expect wild swings. Some days will bring sharp rallies that reverse quickly. Other days will drag, and realized losses may keep rising as more investors pull out. Longer term, if institutional demand returns or big holders stop forcing sales, price stability could follow. Right now the market is clearing out positions and testing whether support levels hold. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

JPMorgan is sticking with its long-run bitcoin upside framework, including a $266,000 per-coin target, even as the bank flags near-term stress signals around mining economics and still-chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026. The bank’s latest read hinges on two pillars: a “soft” floor around bitcoin’s production cost, and a valuation model that maps bitcoin’s potential market cap against private-sector gold investment on a volatility-adjusted basis. In the near term, JPMorgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to produce a bitcoin at roughly $77,000, while bitcoin was trading around the mid-$60,000s in the same analysis window, putting spot below breakeven for less efficient operators. JP Morgan Remains Bullish On Bitcoin Historically, JPMorgan argues, production cost tends to behave like “soft” support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflexive: if prices stay below profitability for long enough, weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower, and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above spot. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital (not retail or corporate treasuries) is the marginal buyer that can restart flows when the macro backdrop stabilizes. As JPMorgan put it: “We are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets, driven by institutional investors.” JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 “call,” but as the mathematical end point of a gold-parity thought experiment. In the bank’s model, matching the scale of private gold investment (roughly $8 trillion, excluding central banks) implies a bitcoin price around $266,000, a level the analysts themselves described as “unrealistic” in the near term. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming The bridge between “unrealistic now” and “possible later,” in JPMorgan’s framing, is volatility. The bank has pointed to a bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards and argues that gold’s surge since October alongside rising gold volatility has improved bitcoin’s relative appeal over the long run. “The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote. JPMorgan’s stance effectively splits the tape into two timeframes: a messy adjustment process if bitcoin remains below mining breakevens, and a longer-duration bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the asset’s role versus gold as 2026 unfolds. At press time, BTC traded at $66,229. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Some key on-chain indicators are flashing a red signal for Bitcoin, suggesting bearish market conditions for the number one cryptocurrency. Major On-Chain Indicators Are In Red Zone For Bitcoin In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about what on-chain indicators are suggesting for the current Bitcoin market. The analyst has shared a heatmap that shows the signals 10 metrics related to the cryptocurrency are flashing right now. The indicators in the graph are all key on-chain metrics covering different dimensions of the network. For example, the MVRV Z-Score deals with general investor profitability, while the Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin specifically track the profit-loss status of the short-term holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop All the indicators in the heatmap are currently giving a red signal, implying conditions aren’t favorable for a bull market. “As long as that remains the case, it is hard to imagine BTC reaching new highs in the short term,” noted Darkfrost. Red has spread on the heatmap as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its bearish price action. A couple of metrics, however, have been bearish since even before the market downturn. The indicators in question are the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and CryptoQuant Network Activity Index. The former of these tracks the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. This metric being bearish means that there is a lack of speculative push in the market. From the chart, it’s visible that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse went red during the drawdown phase from the first half of 2025 and has remained so since then. The CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, gauging the transaction activity occurring on the Bitcoin blockchain, left the bull territory in late 2024. Activity on the network has since mostly maintained at bearish levels, except for a few brief flashes. Most of the other metrics didn’t turn red until the November 2025 price decline. The last metric to go red was the Trader On-Chain Profit Margin, which was green during the January recovery rally, but gave the bear signal after the most recent price plunge. In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders have shown signs of loss-taking recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post. The short-term holder cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins during the past 155 days. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% As the below chart shows, these holders have ramped up their loss deposits to exchanges recently. Investors usually transfer their tokens to centralized exchanges when they want to participate in selling, so these loss deposits can be a sign that some short-term holders are capitulating. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,300, down more than 2% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Standard Chartered lowered its long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the second time in less than three months as the cryptocurrency market appears to have entered a new bearish cycle. With the leading cryptocurrency currently consolidating below the key $70,000 level, the bank now warns that the asset could fall as low as $50,000 before staging a recovery. Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Target to $100,000 In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.  The latest figure marks a significant reduction from its previous $150,000 projection for BTC. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from an ambitious $300,000. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup According to Bloomberg’s report on the matter, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior, especially over the past month’s downtrend. The leading cryptocurrency has declined more than 40% from its October peak toward current trading prices of around $67,160, while the US spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) sector has seen nearly $8 billion in net outflows.  Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have weighed heavily on digital assets. In particular, declining ETF holdings have removed what had been a critical source of demand during previous rallies. The interest‑rate environment remains a central concern. Markets have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously thought.  Kendrick also pointed to uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to Bitcoin caution. The bank warned that deteriorating macro conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term. Ethereum Could Drop To $1,400 Despite the more conservative Bitcoin forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous crypto market collapses.  Kendrick highlighted that on‑chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy.  Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Moreover, the bank’s head of research highlighted that the market has not experienced the type of high‑profile platform failures that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion. The bank also revised its outlook for Ethereum (ETH). Its 2026 price target for the second‑largest cryptocurrency was reduced to $4,000 from $7,500. Before reaching that level, analysts expect Ether could fall to around $1,400.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is once again facing notable selling pressure. The market confronts a challenging phase marked by weakening momentum and cautious investor positioning. Recent price action suggests that bullish conviction has softened. Traders are increasingly attentive to liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and shifting market sentiment. While volatility is not unusual at this stage of the cycle, the current environment reflects a market searching for direction rather than sustaining a clear upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses Hit Luna Crash Levels — But Price Context Points To A Different Market Phase A recent CryptoQuant report provides additional context through Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite metric that integrates valuation, profitability, spending behavior, and sentiment indicators. According to the analysis, BCMI has fallen into the low 0.2 range, a level historically associated more with early bear market phases — such as those seen in 2018 and 2022 — rather than routine mid-cycle corrections. This shift suggests a deeper structural adjustment may be underway. Notably, BCMI was hovering near 0.5 as recently as October, a zone typically interpreted as market equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. The subsequent decline indicates that this balance has broken down. Whether this signals the start of a prolonged bearish phase or a temporary reset will likely depend on future liquidity conditions, investor demand, and broader macroeconomic developments. BCMI Breakdown Points To Structural Weakness In Bitcoin Market The CryptoQuant report highlights a notable deterioration in Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), suggesting a shift away from mid-cycle consolidation toward a more defensive market regime. According to the analysis, the mid-cycle equilibrium around the 0.5 level failed to hold, with no meaningful rebound emerging from the 0.3 zone. Instead, the index continued declining directly toward the low 0.2 range without the type of expansion reset typically seen during healthier corrective phases. This pattern differs from past mid-cycle cooling periods and increasingly resembles a transition into a risk-off market environment. Historical comparisons provide additional perspective. Previous cycle bottoms generally formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, notably during 2019 and again in the 2022–2023 bear phase. Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, implying that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish structural framework, full capitulation conditions have not yet materialized. Because BCMI aggregates valuation metrics such as MVRV, profitability indicators like NUPL, spending behavior via SOPR, and broader sentiment measures, its decline into the low 0.2 range reflects shrinking unrealized profits, rising realized losses, deteriorating sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. Unless the index stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4–0.5 zone, the probability of continued structural weakness remains elevated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support After Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects increasing structural pressure following the recent loss of the $70,000 level, a key psychological and technical threshold that had previously acted as support. Price has now retreated toward the mid-$60,000 range, placing BTC below shorter-term trend averages and signaling weakening bullish momentum. This shift suggests the market is transitioning from consolidation toward a more defensive phase. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs since the late-cycle peak near the $120,000 region. A pattern often associated with corrective or transitional market environments. Recent declines have been accompanied by elevated trading volume. Typically indicative of distribution or forced deleveraging rather than gradual profit-taking. Such dynamics often increase volatility while complicating sustained recovery attempts. Related Reading: Long-Term Ethereum Holders Expand Positions While Market Faces Pressure: Rare Signal Emerges From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone emerges as a critical support area. This region aligns with prior consolidation phases and high-liquidity trading zones that historically attracted demand. Holding above this level could allow Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially form a base for sideways consolidation. However, a decisive breakdown would raise the probability of deeper retracement scenarios. Bitcoin’s direction remains closely tied to liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and broader macro sentiment influencing risk assets. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,800 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $67,500 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $68,000 and $67,500. The price is trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,000 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $68,800 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $68,000 support zone. There was a push below $67,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,255 high. The bears even pushed the price below $65,500. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,500 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $68,000 level. A close above the $68,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,255 high. The next support is now near the $62,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $61,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $60,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $67,500 and $68,000.

The Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 has sparked debate across the crypto market, but recent analysis from BitQuant’s market experts explains why this move was inevitable and necessary. According to the firm, BTC’s sharp decline is not the result of widespread panic or manipulation but rather a natural development in its market structure. The firm explained that the recent local top, which exceeded $126,000, fell short of the expectations needed for healthy growth in the Bitcoin price.  Early Top And Market Liquidation Disrupted Bitcoin Price Structure  In a lengthy post on X, BitQuant reported that its local top for Bitcoin was initially set at $145,000, but this was never reached, leaving the cryptocurrency above $126,000 earlier in October 2025. According to the firm, this earlier-than-expected peak caused a structural failure that prevented the Bitcoin market from building a solid foundation for continued price gains.  Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 On October 10, during the devastating liquidation event, BitQuant noted that a technical issue at Binance had triggered a sudden drop in BTC, from approximately $120,000 to $105,000, adding volatility to its already fragile setup. While some may interpret this Binance issue as manipulation, the crypto company stressed that such events are common in markets, especially in Bitcoin markets. The firm also added that the liquidation and technical error were not significant enough to justify the entire downside that followed.  BitQuant highlighted that the key point is that Bitcoin’s early price top disrupted its natural cycle of distribution and correction, which normally would have allowed its price to consolidate before attempting higher levels. Without a strong base, the market could not sustain strong bullish momentum, creating the bearish conditions that fueled BTC’s retracement toward the $60,000- $62,000 region. In a clean, structural scenario, the company stated that Bitcoin should have reached $145,000, distributed there, experienced a correction of about 25-30%, and then built a strong base before the next price expansion.  New Structure Sets Stage For Future Expansion Although BitQuant has highlighted flaws in Bitcoin’s current market structure, the firm stated that the cryptocurrency has already established a new setup following its decline toward $60,000. The company noted that this updated price structure now supports a continuation toward BTC’s next expansion phase.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin A Better Investment Than Gold? Finance Expert Shares Deep Insights BitQuant further clarified that this is not the start of a new market cycle, but rather a continuation of the cycle that began around $16,000. The firm emphasized that the market’s performance and success in the coming months will depend on whether traders and investors view the next move as a new cycle or a progression of the current one. Although Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 shook the market, the cryptocurrency has since recovered slightly and is trading back above $67,000 at the time of writing. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown  Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market.  Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions.  He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions.  According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating.  Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s violent drawdown into the low-$60,000s has traders hunting for a floor. One of the market’s best-known on-chain analysts is arguing the risk-reward has shifted meaningfully, even if the “bottom” is still a process rather than a single print. James “Checkmate” Check, a former lead Glassnode researcher and now the author of Check On Chain, told What Bitcoin Did host Danny Knowles that once Bitcoin pushed into the $60,000 zone, it entered what he described as “deep value” territory across multiple mean-reversion frameworks, at the same time capitulation-style losses spiked to levels last seen at the 2022 cycle lows. Check’s core framing is blunt: if Bitcoin is headed to zero, none of the models matter. If it’s not, then the statistical setup looks increasingly asymmetric after the selloff. “If Bitcoin is going to zero, been nice playing. It’s been fun […] have fun playing with your bitcoins,” Check said. “If not, then you start looking at the statistics and the odds and go, ‘Well, if Bitcoin recovers, this is kind of a nice place to be. Don’t lose attention now. This is the time to pay attention.’” Related Reading: These Three Catalysts Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Rally, According To Wintermute Check was less interested in pinning the move on a single forced seller than in walking through the market structure that made the slide plausible. IS THE BITCOIN BOTTOM IN? | @_Checkmatey_ We discuss: – The Bitcoin Bear Market – If $60k Is The Bottom – What Caused The Crash – How To Manage The Bear Watch it here: https://t.co/j6OTvdnWFc pic.twitter.com/Z0f1VaKkFd — Danny Knowles (@_DannyKnowles) February 11, 2026 Bitcoin Bottoms Are A Process His conclusion was probabilistic, not declarative. “The odds that we’ve put a bottom in have gone up significantly,” he said, adding later that he’d put the chance the market already set a meaningful low at “more than 50/50 […] probably 60%,” while assigning just “15–20%” odds of a new all-time high in 2026 without a major macro “pivot” or “big print” event. On ETFs, Check cited roughly $7.5 billion in outflows during the drawdown, while arguing the bigger picture looked less like a structural failure and more like positioning unwinds. He said that at around $80,000, roughly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, but noted ETF assets under management were down only mid-single digits (he referenced about 4–6%), and suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade window-dressing rolling off. Check pushed back hard on anchoring to the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” His approach: watch investor behavior first, check the calendar second. “Show me when investors put the bottom in. Show me when investors sell the top,” he said. “I’m going to look at that instead because then I’ll check the date.” Even if the low is in, Check expects the market to revisit it. Bottoms, he argued, tend to form through multiple “capitulation wicks” and then “time pain,” where boredom and lingering fear grind down late-cycle buyers. “If you are formulating a bear case right now, you’re doing it wrong,” he said, framing the current zone as the late innings of the move rather than the start, while still allowing price could go lower. He pointed to two failed all-time-high attempts around October, topping near $126,000, followed by a “shot across the bow” crash on Oct. 10 that he said likely left “bodies out there.” From there, he described a “hodler’s wall” of invested wealth sitting above key levels, with $95,000 as what he called the “bull’s last stand” and argued that once price lost those shelves, downside odds accelerated. A key reference level for him was $80,000, tied to the True Market Mean, a long-term center-of-gravity price that also overlapped with the ETF cost basis in his telling. Once that level broke, he said, the psychological regime changed: “Losing $80,000 was the acceptance phase. Now everyone believes that it’s a bear market. And what bear markets do, they trend lower.” From there, Check argued the market was pulled toward the prior high-volume consolidation zone, roughly the mid-$50,000s to $70,000 range, where a large share of this cycle’s trading volume had previously occurred. He said the selloff itself likely involved leverage blowing up somewhere, but framed that as downstream of a broader shift: when the crowd believes it’s a downtrend, they “sell every rip.” The most concrete “bottoming” signal Check emphasized was the scale of realized losses during the flush. He said capitulation losses ran around $1.5 billion per day, a figure he compared directly to the 2022 bottom and that the sellers were concentrated among recent cohorts: “class of 2025” and “class of 2026” buyers, plus people who bought the $80,000 bear-flag region. He also flagged SOPR printing around minus one standard deviation, which he said has only appeared in two historical contexts: an early “this isn’t a dip” warning, and later near bottoming phases. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K His conclusion was probabilistic, not declarative. “The odds that we’ve put a bottom in have gone up significantly,” he said, adding later that he’d put the chance the market already set a meaningful low at “more than 50/50 […] probably 60%,” while assigning just “15–20%” odds of a new all-time high in 2026 without a major macro “pivot” or “big print” event. On ETFs, Check cited roughly $7.5 billion in outflows during the drawdown, while arguing the bigger picture looked less like a structural failure and more like positioning unwinds. He said that at around $80,000, roughly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, but noted ETF assets under management were down only mid-single digits (he referenced about 4–6%), and suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade window-dressing rolling off. Check pushed back hard on anchoring to the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” His approach: watch investor behavior first, check the calendar second. “Show me when investors put the bottom in. Show me when investors sell the top,” he said. “I’m going to look at that instead because then I’ll check the date.” Even if the low is in, Check expects the market to revisit it. Bottoms, he argued, tend to form through multiple “capitulation wicks” and then “time pain,” where boredom and lingering fear grind down late-cycle buyers. “If you are formulating a bear case right now, you’re doing it wrong,” he said, framing the current zone as the late innings of the move rather than the start, while still allowing price could go lower. At press time, BTC traded at $67,788. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders squinting at charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have tumbled sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback inside a longer uptrend. Others warn the data points to something colder. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K Price Decline And Hard Numbers According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of losses. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 — a reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that net realized losses recently hit over $13 billion, a level that matched the worst stretches of the 2022 slump. In 2024, roughly $10 billion of inflows helped lift market cap. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value shrank. That odd mix of heavy inflows and falling market cap suggests selling pressure is higher than fresh buying. How Rising Prices Are Masking a Quiet Shift in Bitcoin’s Structure “The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition.” – By @xwinfinance Read more ⤵️https://t.co/7soxNoBhqi pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026 Capital Flows Versus Price Action Based on reports, the capital flow numbers are the most awkward fact for bulls. Money moved in, but value fell. Who was selling into that demand? Large holders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks might have taken profits or hedged positions. The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal shrinking realized gains even as prices remained far above prior bear-era levels. That tends to weaken the internal strength of the market over time. Sentiment And Historical Echoes Some traders point to a quirk of memory: high nominal prices make pain feel milder. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access have changed the market’s plumbing, and that gives many confidence. Yet sentiment readings at extreme fear often show up near capitulation points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022 realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means big losses can precede a final low by a long stretch. Technical Patterns And The Bigger Picture Bitcoin posted four consecutive losing months and a 41% decline across that stretch — a streak last seen during 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern matters because similar sequences have led to extended downturns in the past. Related Reading: More Bitcoin Ahead: Saylor, Strategy Commit To Regular BTC Purchases Bitcoin At A Crossroads As XWIN Flags Early Signs Of Crypto Winter For XWIN Research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking. Right now, that balance looks strained. Until inflows begin translating into sustained market cap growth and realized losses cool meaningfully, the firm believes the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not have fully arrived, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s price structure is showing signs of strain, and new data from CryptoQuant shows that fresh capital is no longer entering the market. Instead of the recent drawdown acting as an attraction for buyers, it appears to be triggering withdrawals. This change in liquidity behavior is important, as it indicates that Bitcoin may be transitioning into deeper bear market conditions. Notably, on-chain metrics tracking new liquidity flows are revealing negative cumulative inflows over the past month. Selling Pressure Builds, New Investor Inflows Flip Negative According to a recent analysis that was done on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative new investor flow has dropped to approximately $2.6 billion.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin And The Best Time To Sell This metric was revealed from CryptoQuant’s ‘Bitcoin New Investor Flow’ data, which is revealing that more capital is leaving the ecosystem than entering it. The data shows that the ongoing dip is failing to attract meaningful participation from new buyers. Interestingly, the current reading of this metric is displaying a huge contrast between previous bull phases and current conditions. Large spikes in new money, visible in blue in the chart below, accompanied strong price rallies, particularly in 2017, 2021, and again during the 2024-2025 bull market. Those inflow surges coincided with powerful upside momentum in terms of price action. At present, those spikes are notably absent. Instead, the lower section of the chart is displaying growing red readings due to net capital outflows. The latest print is below zero, which shows that sell-offs are not being absorbed by fresh liquidity. This dynamic matters because markets rely on marginal buyers to sustain higher prices. When new participants step back, price action becomes vulnerable to deeper pullbacks. That is why there is a need for new buyers to absorb the selloffs. Low Liquidity Raises Crash Risks Although liquidity contraction does not automatically guarantee another major crash, it increases fragility of price action. Bitcoin, for one, is still trading below $70,000, although bulls have largely prevented further breakdowns below $60,000. This, in turn, has kept the Bitcoin price trading in a range around $70,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Caught Between Two Liquidity Traps — Which Side Breaks First? However, many crypto analysts are of the notion that Bitcoin could still crash further to lower price levels. Calls for a deeper correction are circulating across trading platforms and social media, with projected bottoms stretching from around $55,000 to as low as $30,000. The absence of inflow spikes suggests that Bitcoin may struggle to regain momentum in the near term. If liquidity continues to dry up, the probability of another significant leg lower before a rebound increases. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $67,160, reflecting a modest 0.3% gain over the past 24 hours. This price behavior is unfolding alongside a slowdown in mining activity due to miners shutting down their systems, which led to the largest mining difficulty drop since 2021. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe.  In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends.  However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.”  This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation.  He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking.  By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency.  In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory.  Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.  Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold.  He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the social media sentiment around Bitcoin has remained deeply bearish despite the recovery that the cryptocurrency’s price has made. Social Media Data Suggests Retail Still Fearful About Bitcoin In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has discussed about how the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin has developed on social media following the recent recovery surge in the asset’s price. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% The Positive/Negative Sentiment refers to an indicator that tells us, as its name suggests, how the positive and negative sentiments related to a given asset compare on the major social media platforms. The metric works by putting social media posts/threads/messages containing mentions of the asset through a machine-learning model to differentiate between positive and negative comments. Then, it counts up the number of posts in each category and finds their ratio. When the value of the indicator is greater than 1, it means the asset is observing more bullish messages than bearish ones. On the other hand, the metric being under this threshold implies the dominance of a negative sentiment. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the last few months: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment rose to a notable level when the asset saw its rally in January. This suggests that retail traders on social media became greedy. What eventually followed the market greed was a top in the cryptocurrency and a reversal to the downside. As this drawdown took BTC back to the $60,000 level, the Positive/Negative Sentiment plummeted, meaning that fear now dominated social media platforms. Just like how the greedy sentiment led into a top, this bearish mentality paved way for a rebound instead. This is a pattern that has been witnessed with digital asset markets time and time again, with prices tending to move against the expectations of the crowd. Interestingly, even though BTC has climbed back into the high $60,000 levels since its low, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has continued to be at low levels. “Historically, while FUD is high, price rebounds have a heightened probability,” noted the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin will develop in the near future, given the current bearish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Giant Awakens: 2,043 BTC Moved After 7-Year Slumber In some other news, the stablecoin market cap has dipped recently, as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has highlighted in an X post. Edwards has pointed out that the stablecoin market cap has historically only fallen in bear markets. If the recent trajectory of the combined USDT and USDC market cap is to go by, capital may once again be leaving this side of the sector. BTC Price Bitcoin recovered above $70,000 earlier, but the coin has since retraced a bit as its price is now trading around $67,700. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is printing on-chain loss-taking on a scale last seen during the Luna/UST meltdown, but at a radically different price point, a distinction that changes what the signal likely means for this drawdown. Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss has sunk deep into negative territory, with the 7-day moving average falling to -$1.99 billion on Feb. 7 before improving slightly to -$1.73 billion by Feb. 10. That places the current regime among the most severe loss-dominant stretches on record. Adler described it as “the second deepest negative reading in the entire history of observations,” exceeded only by June 18, 2022, when the metric hit -$2.24 billion amid the Luna/UST crash and cascading liquidations. The key detail, Adler argues, is persistence. Net Realized Profit/Loss has stayed below roughly -$1.7 billion for five consecutive days, forming what he framed as a sustained cluster of seller pressure, the kind of multi-day compression that typically marks capitulation behavior rather than a single shock print. In Adler’s framing, the mechanic is straightforward: realized losses are dominating realized profits on moved coins, and the market is working through the supply owned by participants forced or willing to sell below their cost basis. Related Reading: These Three Catalysts Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Rally, According To Wintermute “The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” he wrote. “The key reversal trigger is the return of Net Realized Profit/Loss above zero, which would signal the market’s transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. As long as the metric remains in deeply negative territory, seller pressure persists.” Bitcoin Losses Match Luna Crash Scale The companion chart, Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA), shows realized losses rising to about $2.3 billion on Feb. 7 and holding near that level through Feb. 10, another rarity in historical context. Adler called it “one of the highest smoothed levels in the entire history of observations,” explicitly comparing it to June 2022. He also emphasized that the 7-day smoothing understates peak stress in real time. At the height of the 2022 episode, Adler noted, single-day losses were roughly three times higher than the weekly-smoothed figure. In the current window, he pointed to a single-day realized loss of $6.05 billion on Feb. 5, the second-largest one-day loss in Bitcoin’s history, according to his note. The headline comparison, however, is not just magnitude but setting. In 2022, a similar realized-loss regime occurred with bitcoin trading around $19,000. This time, Adler says, the losses are being crystallized around $67,000 after a pullback from $125,000, a context he frames as a correction that is flushing out late entries rather than an ecosystem-wide failure cascade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Chart Screams 2022 Bear Market, Until You Notice What’s Missing “Back then, Realized Loss at $2.7B was occurring at a price of $19K,” Adler wrote. “Now, comparable loss volumes are being locked in at a price of $67K, which suggests not a systemic crash but rather a flushing out of late bull-cycle entries. This is capitulation of local top buyers, not a fundamental loss of network value.” Adler’s playbook puts two markers front and center. The first is a sustained move of Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) back above zero for multiple weeks, which he frames as the transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. The second is a decline of Realized Loss (7DMA) below $1 billion, which would indicate that the wave of forced or pain-driven selling is fading. The risk, in his view, is that the market’s “cleansing stress” shifts into something more final if price weakness compounds. Adler flagged the sub-$60,000 area as a line where continued growth in realized losses alongside further price decline could turn a correction into “full-blown capitulation”, not because the current prints are small, but because the regime could extend and deepen. For now, Adler’s core claim is that Bitcoin is producing Luna-sized loss signals without Luna-like structural damage. Same order of magnitude on-chain, different story in the tape. At press time, BTC traded at $67,924. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure after losing the key $70,000 level, a breakdown that has pushed the market into a more defensive phase. The inability to hold this psychological support has weighed on sentiment. With traders increasingly cautious as volatility rises and liquidity conditions remain uncertain. Price action near the mid-$60,000 range now represents a critical zone where market participants are assessing whether the current move is a deeper correction or simply another consolidation phase within the broader cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K On-chain data highlighted by analyst Axel Adler adds important context to the recent decline. According to his analysis, realized losses across the Bitcoin network have surged to levels comparable to those seen during the June 2022 Luna and UST crash. At first glance, this suggests significant stress and widespread capitulation among investors. However, the price backdrop is markedly different this time. Whereas the 2022 losses occurred when Bitcoin traded near $19,000, the current wave of loss realization is unfolding around $67,000. This distinction materially changes how the signal is interpreted. Rather than pointing to systemic market collapse, the data may reflect the flushing out of late-cycle buyers and leveraged positions, leaving Bitcoin at a pivotal stage where demand strength will determine the next directional move. Extreme Realized Losses Signal Capitulation, Not Structural Breakdown Axel Adler’s latest on-chain assessment highlights a sharp deterioration in Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss dynamics. The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss 7-day moving average recently dropped to around -$1.99 billion, signaling large-scale loss-taking comparable to conditions seen during the June 2022 Luna-driven market shock. This metric tracks the balance between realized profits and losses from coins moving on-chain, offering a smoothed view of investor behavior over time. Although the indicator slightly recovered to roughly -$1.73 billion in the following days, it still represents the second-deepest negative reading on record. Net losses have remained below -$1.7 billion for several consecutive sessions. This indicates persistent seller pressure and ongoing capitulation among investors who entered the market at higher prices. Historically, a sustained return above zero has marked transitions back to profit-dominant market phases. Bitcoin Realized Loss has climbed to approximately $2.3 billion on a 7-day basis, a level comparable to peak stress during the 2022 crash. However, the broader context differs significantly. Similar loss volumes are now occurring near $67,000 rather than $19,000, suggesting a cyclical flush of late bull-market entrants rather than systemic market failure or structural network deterioration. Related Reading: Ethereum Holders Shift To Self-Custody As Market Consolidates Near $2K Bitcoin Breakdown Extends As Momentum Remains Bearish Bitcoin’s daily chart reflects sustained downside pressure after the decisive loss of the $70,000 level. The price is now hovering in the mid-$60,000 range following a sharp decline. The move confirms a clear shift in short-term market structure, characterized by lower highs, accelerating selloffs, and repeated failures to reclaim former support zones. This pattern typically signals weakening bullish momentum and increasing caution among market participants. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below key moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance rather than support. The inability to recover these levels suggests that sellers continue to dominate short-term price action. Recent spikes in trading volume during the drop reinforce the idea of forced deleveraging and defensive positioning rather than orderly rotation or accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Crash Below $2,000 Triggers Record Token Movement: Hinting At Capitulation The $60,000–$62,000 region emerges as the next critical support area. Aligning with prior consolidation zones and historical liquidity clusters. Holding this range would help stabilize sentiment and potentially enable consolidation. A break below it, however, could open the door to deeper retracement scenarios. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Michael Saylor has doubled down on his company’s plan to keep buying Bitcoin on a regular schedule, saying that short-term swings will not change the approach. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K The message was simple and repeated: accumulation continues. Many in markets heard it as both reassurance and a reminder of how much the firm now depends on the asset. Saylor’s Quarterly Buying Plan According to public statements and company filings, the firm will keep making purchases every quarter. Reports say Bitcoin is being treated like a long-term reserve rather than a trading position. That means buys continue no matter what headlines scream today. The tactic is deliberate and steady. It is designed to smooth the entry points over time. A Massive Position And What It Means The company holds 714,644 Bitcoins. On its own pages the value runs into the tens of billions. That level of accumulation places the firm among the largest single holders of the coin, and with such scale comes concentration risk. The position was not built overnight. It was assembled over years, and much of it was funded through debt instruments tied to the company’s strategy of growth through accumulation. Bitcoin Price Action In Context Bitcoin has been volatile. It slid back below $70,000 this week after a run higher earlier in the year, and at one stage recently it had traded near a much higher peak that recalibrated many investors’ expectations. Short-term traders are uneasy. Long-term backers are unbothered. Price swings of this size can push shares of companies with large crypto exposure down sharply, which is what happened to the firm’s stock as market sentiment shifted. How Debt And Liquidity Factor In Reports say Strategy carries more than $8 billion in total debt, including notes created specifically to fund purchases. Cash on hand is being used to cover ordinary obligations, with the company noting it has enough to pay dividends for a period measured in years. Bitcoin Correlation With Tech Stocks Meanwhile, many market players now treat Bitcoin like a high-beta asset that moves with tech stocks in risk-on episodes, rather than like a safe haven that shines when fear rises. That shift in behavior is one reason some analysts have raised questions about the sustainability of a debt-financed accumulation model when prices move sharply lower. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Saylor’s Pledge And What Comes Next The commitment by Saylor and his team to buy each quarter is intact. The company says selling is not on the table. For outside observers, the question is whether steady accumulation funded in part by debt becomes a strength if prices recover, or a vulnerability if volatility persists and credit conditions tighten. The answer will emerge as market conditions unfold. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $70,000 and started another decline. BTC is now trading below $68,800 and might extend losses in the near term. Bitcoin is slowly moving lower below $68,800 and $68,000. The price is trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $70,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $68,800 support zone. There was a push below $68,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,256 high. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,200 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $69,000 level. A close above the $69,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000 and $72,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $69,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $66,000 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60,500 swing low to the $72,256 high. The next support is now near the $63,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $61,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $69,000 and $70,000.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has once again declared his support for Bitcoin, this time making a direct comparison between the digital asset and gold. In a recent post on social media, the New York Times bestselling author said that if he were forced to choose between the two, he would select Bitcoin over gold, citing the cryptocurrency’s actual design as the deciding factor. His comments quickly led to reactions from his followers, not only because of the comparison but also due to his own recent activity in the crypto market. Bitcoin Is A Better Investment Than Gold According to Kiyosaki, investing in Bitcoin is a much better decision than buying gold, and this is mostly due to the supply dynamics of the two assets. On a surface level, Kiyosaki noted that it would be obviously better to invest in both gold and Bitcoin, while also adding silver for diversification of assets. However, if he had to choose only one asset, he would choose Bitcoin. Related Reading: Contrary To Popular Belief, This Is Not The Worst Bitcoin Crash In History – Here’s The List Kiyosaki’s view on Bitcoin as a better investment is based on its hard supply cap of 21 million coins. Unlike gold, whose total reserves are uncertain and expandable through technological advancements and exploration, Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is mathematically predetermined. The protocol behind BTC makes sure that no more than 21 million coins will ever exist. As of now, over 19 million coins have already been mined, which means the network is close to its maximum supply threshold. According to Kiyosaki, this design is brilliant, and that means the price of Bitcoin should only go up. Based on Kiyosaki’s perspective, engineered scarcity gives Bitcoin a structural advantage over gold. If demand is growing while supply remains fixed, basic economic theory implies upward price pressure over the long term. “Glad I bought my Bitcoin early,” Kiyosaki said. From Selling BTC To Defending His Early Entry Claims Robert Kiyosaki rose to prominence with his 1997 bestselling book on personal finance called Rich Dad Poor Dad, which eventually rolled over into a series of personal finance books. Over the years, he has broadened his commentary to include real estate, precious metals, commodities, and, more recently, cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak In late 2025, Kiyosaki disclosed that he had sold a portion of his Bitcoin holdings. The disclosure came in November, around the time the price of Bitcoin fell below $90,000. According to him, he sold roughly $2.25 million worth of Bitcoin, explaining that the coins had originally been acquired years earlier at about $6,000 each. Speaking of buying Bitcoin at $6,000, Kiyosaki is claiming he stopped buying Bitcoin at $6,000. However, he has faced backlash for this claim. Recent community notes show Kiyosaki said on January 23, 2026, that he was continuously buying Bitcoin, alongside other assets like gold, silver, and Ethereum.  Nonetheless, the gold-versus-Bitcoin discussion among investors is unlikely to stop anytime soon. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP and Bitcoin (BTC) were pitted against each other in a recent analysis, with market expert X Finance Bull revealing what early investors could have gained if they had invested $500 into both XRP and BTC in 2014. The analysis compares the performance of both cryptocurrencies over the years, highlighting the factors behind XRP’s growth and sustained momentum. What $500 In Bitcoin And XRP in 2014 Is Worth Today A new analysis by X Finance Bull reveals the dramatic growth potential of early investments in Bitcoin and XRP. According to the report, a $500 investment in XRP at the 2014 lows would be worth approximately $255,000 today. He compares XRP’s gains with those of Bitcoin, noting that if investors had bet the same amount in BTC in 2014, their investments would have grown to around $133,000.  Related Reading: Analysts At Leading Wealth Manager Predict Bitcoin’s 2026 Price, And It’s Very Bullish These figures suggest that XRP outperformed Bitcoin by more than twice over the same period, delivering a 511-fold return, compared to BTC’s 266-fold gain. During that time, XRP’s performance benefited not only from early, steady adoption and speculative interest but also from the continued development of its underlying payment system.  Over the years, XRP has moved beyond a purely speculative asset, gaining more traction as it evolves into a potential global settlement layer. Sharing similar sentiments, X Finance Bull highlighted how XRP’s infrastructure developments have significantly supported its significant price growth today. He noted that the cryptocurrency has seen major progress in areas such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), banking licenses, and enterprise-level adoption.  Notably, XRP Spot ETFs officially launched in November 2025, attracting massive inflows that have significantly boosted demand for XRP among institutional investors. In addition, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has conditionally approved Ripple’s application to establish a national trust bank charter. All of these developments have contributed to XRP’s price growth over the past few months.  Investors Reap Rewards For Holding XRP Through Volatility  In his post, X Finance Bull suggested that investors who held onto their XRP positions through the volatile years “know why they held.” Following the cryptocurrency’s dramatic rally above $3, many investors reaped the rewards of staying invested from its lows and trusting in its potential for future price appreciation.  Related Reading: XRP’s 1,500% Path To $24: Analyst Warns Investors To Be Prepared For When The Correction Resolves From 2018 to 2025, XRP struggled with a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). During those years of legal turmoil, many investors continued to hold onto their XRP despite the uncertainty and price stagnancy.  Following Ripple’s legal win, XRP surpassed $3 in 2025, marking its first break above that level since 2018. Compared to XRP, Bitcoin has also experienced significant growth in the past few years. After crossing the $100,000 threshold in 2024, BTC continued its surge into 2025, finally hitting a peak above $126,000 in October. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price is often framed as the result of one dominant factor, whether it’s the halving cycle, macro liquidity, or speculative demand, and this view misses the deeper reality of how the asset actually trades. BTC exists within a complex economic environment where multiple forces act simultaneously, each influencing price in different ways. When Bitcoin Cycles And Macro Cycles Overlap Multiple interacting processes shape Bitcoin and the broader business cycle, and the dynamics are more complex than a single narrative. Crypto analyst Giovanni has highlighted on X that the FOMO halving narrative had heavily driven the early BTC cycle, and the social feedback loop matters. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also exhibited a 4-year periodicity, and this does not mean the BTC halving cycle was irrelevant. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO These two cycles are interacting, and that interaction is precisely what needs to be quantified and understood, rather than dismissed with hand-waving explanations. Giovanni emphasized that the halving cycle is still real for miners and never disappeared. Block rewards are reduced on a fixed schedule, and that mechanical change directly impacts miner economics. By extension, these effects propagate into the broader BTC economy in one form or another. The explanation is not credible if the pendulum swings from “the 4-year cycle is an illusion” to “the 4-year cycle halving cycle explains everything.” Replacing one oversimplified story with another doesn’t improve understanding; it just shifts the blind spot. There are solid mathematical tools designed to study cycle coupling, phase alignment, and interaction effects. Giovanni argues that applying these tools is the right path, and doing so is unlikely to produce a new simple narrative. What will likely emerge is a richer structure, where internal and external cycles interact in nontrivial ways. How The Model Estimates Up And Down Outcomes An analyst known as The Smart Ape pointed out on X about developing a theoretical probability model to estimate Bitcoin’s up and down price outcomes in the 15-minute markets on Polymarket. The model is intentionally simple, calculating probabilities by using the target price, the current BTC price, and the remaining before the market round closes. What stood out most was how closely the theoretical outputs matched real market probabilities. The difference between the market prices and model probabilities was consistently within a narrow 1-5% range,  suggesting that the model tracks actual market behaviour with remarkable accuracy. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders, which clearly shows how bot-dominated these markets are and are driven by logical rules and algorithms. The Smart Ape argues that if the market were primarily driven by human traders, real probabilities wouldn’t align this tightly with a theoretical model. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the XRP price could still crash below the psychological $1 level. This came as she drew the altcoin’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price action, while highlighting how a BTC crash could also push XRP to as low as $0.87. XRP Price Could Drop To $0.87 If Bitcoin’s Crash Deepens In an X post, TARA stated that a Bitcoin crash to $52,200 would bring the XRP price down to its .786 support at $0.87. She noted that this level is also the .618 extension and the gap that was left by the October 10 liquidation event. The analyst made these comments while noting what she was watching for on XRP during this market downtrend.  Related Reading: XRP Price Enters ‘Final Shakeout Zone’, What Investors Should Expect TARA also mentioned that the XRP price has reached its textbook .382 resistance at $1.53, but that the waves on Bitcoin appear incomplete. She predicted that XRP could suffer another leg down in the short term as she expects a short-term correction for BTC to $65,800 before it makes another push up to the .5 resistance level at $75,400.  The analyst stated that this projected Bitcoin crash to $65,800 could bring the XRP price down to $1.30 as a short-term support, with another wave up expected as high as the .5 resistance at $1.65. Meanwhile, TARA remains bullish on XRP in the long term, noting that the macro Wave 3 targets remain $7 to $9.  She also noted that XRP could have bottomed around this current range, but BTC continues to largely drive price action for the altcoin and the broader crypto market, which is why it can still drop further.  Two Potential Scenarios For XRP Crypto analyst CasiTrades stated in an X post that the XRP price is currently in a Wave 4 relief that could send it towards the .5 retracement and macro .618 near $1.65, a level she described as critical. She warned that if XRP fails to flip $1.65 into support, it would set up a clean final wave down targeting $1.09 or even $0.90.  Related Reading: What Happens Now That The XRP Price Has Revisited The October 10 Lows? CasiTrades further stated that this current relief bounce has reset the RSI enough that a move down to these levels would likely produce a bullish divergence, which makes them “exceptional long-term buy zones.”  On the other hand, if the XRP price reclaims $1.65, she stated that it will be best to wait for confirmation of a back-test of support and then use that as an entry off strength. The analyst told investors that this is not a time to panic sell, as major lows have been reached, and that there is a chance the final wave down fails.  At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.38, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s image as a steady store of value is being tested. What once was talked about as a hedge against uncertainty now moves more like a high-upside, high-risk bet. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K Signals Of A Growth Asset According to Grayscale, recent trading patterns show Bitcoin tracking closely with shares of software companies rather than with gold or silver. That change in behavior has been noticeable since early 2024, when institutional flows and exchange-traded products pushed crypto into more mainstream hands. Reports say investors who chase growth — many drawn by the AI story — have been selling software names hard, and Bitcoin has followed some of that pressure. Institutional Links And Market Forces Reports note that deeper ties to traditional markets explain part of this shift. Large firms, ETF mechanics and growing institutional holdings mean movements in stock markets can spill into crypto. There has also been active selling from US-based accounts that left Bitcoin trading at a discount on some platforms. That selling happened after a string of big liquidations late in the year and again in recent weeks, which amplified losses for traders who used leverage. Where Price Stands Now Bitcoin is changing hands around $66,900, with clear resistance near $69,900 and support levels slipping under $66,600. The swings are sharp and intraday moves can be wide, reflecting a mood that is cautious and reactive. From its peak above $126,000 in October, the market has pulled back by roughly 50% in several waves, which shows how quickly sentiment can turn against even the most talked-about crypto. Gold, Geopolitics And Risk Appetite Reports point out that bullion has climbed to fresh highs while Bitcoin has failed to mirror those safe-haven flows. Rising geopolitical friction has driven some money into metals and away from riskier bets, including tech shares and crypto. Traders who expected Bitcoin to act like a fortress against turmoil have found that, for now, it behaves more like an asset whose value rises on hope and falls when fear returns. A return of fresh capital would likely be needed to steady prices. ETF inflows could help, and a renewed wave of retail buyers would too. Research suggests that retail interest is currently focused on AI stories and growth narratives, which leaves crypto out of favor for many individual investors. That concentration of attention matters: capital flows are what lift or sink these markets. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Bitcoin Tracks Tech, But Long-Term Value Still Intact Grayscale says Bitcoin’s recent moves mirror tech stocks, not gold, but its long-term potential as a store of value remains. Short-term swings reflect market integration and investor activity, while future performance will depend on capital flows and broader economic trends. Featured image from ETF Trends, chart from TradingView

Michael Saylor, the outspoken Bitcoin (BTC) advocate and Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) co-founder, said on Tuesday that the company remains firmly committed to its long‑standing Bitcoin strategy, despite growing concerns about its financial risks. Strategy Will Buy Bitcoin Every Quarter Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Saylor said Strategy plans to continue buying Bitcoin on a regular basis, regardless of price swings or skepticism from market observers.  He said the company intends to add to its Bitcoin holdings every quarter and has no plans to reverse course. “I expect we’ll be buying bitcoin every quarter forever,” Saylor said. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Addressing concerns about the company’s debt load, Saylor was dismissive of the idea that a prolonged Bitcoin downturn could threaten Strategy’s finances.  He said that even in a severe scenario, the company would manage its obligations through refinancing. “If Bitcoin falls 90% for the next four years, we’ll refinance the debt,” he said. “We’ll just roll it forward.” Strategy currently carries more than $8 billion in total debt, much of it tied to convertible notes the company issued to fund Bitcoin purchases. Despite this leverage, Saylor said he believes lenders will continue to support the company even if Bitcoin prices decline sharply.  Asked whether banks would still be willing to lend under those circumstances, he replied that Bitcoin’s inherent volatility does not undermine its long‑term value. “Yeah,” he said, “because the volatility of Bitcoin is such that it’s always going to be a value.” Saylor also rejected any suggestion that Strategy might be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to shore up its balance sheet. He emphasized that liquidation is not part of the company’s plan and reiterated his belief in Bitcoin as a long‑term asset. Short Sellers Increase Bets  Market sentiment around Strategy, however, has grown more cautious. Short interest in the company’s stock has risen sharply, increasing about 40% from a low point in September 2025, according to an analysis published by Barron’s.  Roughly 30.5 million shares are now sold short, representing about 10% of the company’s public float. At the same time, long‑term investors have pulled back, with Strategy’s shares, MSTR, falling around 70% to current trading prices of $134.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target Despite the pressure on its stock, Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. According to figures published on the company’s website, it holds 714,644 BTC, valued at approximately $49 billion at the time of writing.  Saylor also noted that the company has sufficient liquidity to support its obligations, stating that Strategy has roughly two and a half years’ worth of cash on its balance sheet to cover dividend payments. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $69,192, registering losses of nearly 8% over the past seven days and 3% over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows a dormant Bitcoin whale has roused after a silence of nearly seven years, shifting 2,043 BTC on the blockchain. A Dormant Bitcoin Whale Has Just Made A Notable Transaction As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, an old whale transaction has been spotted on the Bitcoin blockchain. The on-chain indicator cited by the analyst is the Spent Output Age Bands, which tells us about the amount of BTC that addresses belonging to a particular age band are moving. Coins are divided into these “age bands” based on how long they have been sitting dormant on the blockchain for. In the context of the current topic, the band of interest is the 5 to 7 years one, covering tokens that haven’t been involved in a transaction since between five and seven years ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Not “Pumpable” Right Now, Says CryptoQuant Founder: Here’s Why Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Spent Output Age Bands for this cohort. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands has just registered a huge spike for the group, indicating coins falling in this age range have just broken their dormancy. In total, the move involved 2,043 BTC, worth $140.8 million at the current exchange rate. According to the analyst, the whale involved in the transaction purchased these tokens on February 19th, 2019, implying that the age of the tokens was on the higher end of the range, being nearly seven years dormant before the transaction took place. “This unknown entity once held 39,000 BTC, originally received from Cumberland (OTC Trading Desk),” noted Maartunn. As for what could be the reason behind the whale choosing to break their silence now, the answer is uncertain. It could be that the recent bearish price action was strong enough to shake even this diamond hand into selling, or the move could simply just be for a mundane purpose like a change of wallets. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Under MVRV Band That Marked Last 3 Bottoms In some other news, new investor capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up lately, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has highlighted in an X post. As displayed in the above chart, the 30-day capital netflow into Bitcoin has plummeted into the negative zone recently, suggesting demand from new investors isn’t enough to absorb the selling. “This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation,” noted the analyst. Currently, the 30-day cumulative capital netflow is sitting at a value of -$2.6 billion for the cryptocurrency. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement during the last few days as its price is still trading around $68,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul laid out a starkly bifurcated view of the Bitcoin and crypto market on X late Monday, arguing the current drawdown could either mark a permanent peak in “organic adoption” for today’s crop of liquid tokens or simply a higher-timeframe correction before another speculative leg higher. Paul said he’s “50%/50% between two scenarios,” framing the split as a practical portfolio problem rather than a call for a single narrative. The post landed into an already frayed tape, and quickly drew pushback from other market commentators who viewed the 50/50 framing as evasive. Has Bitcoin Reached Its ‘Final Top’? In Paul’s bearish “A” scenario, the core claim is saturation: crypto has now enjoyed “every tailwind imaginable”: ubiquitous brand recognition, even political amplification, and what he described as effectively non-existent regulatory headwinds under the current US administration, yet demand and real usage have not expanded beyond prior cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Hear ‘Fed–Treasury Accord’ And Smell Yield-Curve Control He pointed to experiments that fizzled, writing that “El Salvador kind of adopted and then abandoned bitcoin…not helpful or useful to their people,” and argued many apps and institutions “tried crypto, wasn’t useful to their needs in current form.” Paul analogized the setup to the internet’s 2000-era shakeout: the idea remains world-changing, but most tokens and protocols might not survive it. He also warned liquidation risk may not be finished, noting that while “we saw some big liquidations in the market…plenty of larger ones to go potentially, pushing things far lower.” The bullish “B” scenario leans on macro mood and market structure. Paul argued crypto could still be a beneficiary of what he called “late stage capitalism and financial nihilism,” with bitcoin and other assets drawing speculative flows and occasional demand for “fiat alternatives.” He added that, beyond price, builders are still shipping and usage is “quietly growing” in niches — and that crypto remains a fertile arena for “coordinated pumps by the rich and powerful,” implying the incentive structure for volatility hasn’t vanished. “If these two scenarios were really 50% each,” he wrote, “a moderate allocation to crypto would be sensible due to the asymmetric upside.” Blockchain Investment Group CIO Eric Weiss criticized Paul’s post as “classic fence-sitting,” arguing it offered “zero actionable insight.” Paul shot back that constant directional certainty is “dishonest (or idiotic),” and defended probability-weighted positioning as standard practice for traders and PMs. “I shared the exact decision I made as a result of this analysis,” Paul wrote. “Traders and portfolio managers are always optimizing across probabilities…nothing novel there. And often the best decision is to be flat an asset, at least for a time.” Paul also suggested Weiss’ frustration was less about the framing and more about P&L, adding he has “consistently cautioned against the buffoonish ‘number can only go up’ theocracy that led so many to take risks and make decisions they regret.” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation The exchange broadened when VP of Investor Relations at Nakamoto Steven Lubka argued there’s a “60-70% probability” that most of crypto outside “Stablecoins and infrastructure for TradFi” has “run its course,” while bitcoin likely persists as a global store-of-value competitor. Paul’s reply drilled into bitcoin’s long-run equilibrium and the business models built around it. “I could see BTC ‘surviving’ in collectible form, but imo, it’s ‘unstable’ in current form,” he wrote. “It needs to be bigger or smaller. If BTC price stabilizes, the security budget gradually dwindles to near zero. It’s already comically low relative to BTC market cap today, but that ratio will worsen substantially as inflation rewards continue declining.” He then tied that dynamic to what he described as “extraction” by intermediaries. “Exchanges, brokerages, and custodians, are constantly profiting/extracting,” Paul wrote. “Without a constant influx of new money buying, price naturally falls due to all the extraction. If BTC just stabilized here and chugged along, very few crypto businesses survive in current form. Coinbase for example would probably face a 90%+ haircut in value.” Paul’s Positioning On the tactical side, Paul said he hadn’t traded crypto “at all in 6 months” and “narrowly missed selling most crypto when BTC got to $125k,” adding he had hoped for $135k as a medium-term high but found the selloff “deeper/longer than I expected.” Now, with volatility rising, he said he’s trading more actively and is currently “playing from the long side” into a bounce, with plans to “re-evaluate with BTC around $90k.” He also floated a middle-path outcome: bitcoin could trade as low as $15,000–$40,000 for a year before making new highs, potentially catalyzed by forced selling from crypto firms, including a supposed MicroStrategy-driven stress event, though he noted liquidation is not the only risk and questioned whether debt rollovers or covenants could force behavior short of a wipeout. At press time, BTC traded at $69,178. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto market maker Wintermute published a detailed market update on Tuesday via X (previously Twitter), offering a comprehensive breakdown of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent collapse, who was behind the selling pressure, and what conditions must change for a meaningful recovery to take hold. Wintermute Details Brutal Bitcoin Crash The firm described the past week as exceptionally severe for Bitcoin. Prices fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and continued sliding to around $60,000 before stabilizing in the low $70,000 range by the weekend.  According to Wintermute, the decline erased all of Bitcoin’s gains that followed Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, accompanied by widespread liquidations.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target More than $2.7 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out as months of range‑bound trading encouraged excessive leverage that ultimately unraveled.  Wintermute also pointed to the growing influence of Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) on price action, noting that BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw more than $10 billion in notional trading volume on Thursday.  Wintermute identified three major catalysts that struck the market at the same time. The first was the January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, which altered expectations around monetary policy.  The second was a wave of disappointing earnings from large technology firms, highlighted by Microsoft shares dropping 10%. The third was a dramatic reversal in precious metals, where silver plunged 40% in just three days after briefly reaching $121.  The Key Conditions For BTC’s Next Recovery Data from spot markets suggest that selling pressure was structural rather than isolated. The Coinbase premium remained in negative territory throughout the decline, a pattern that has persisted since December and signals sustained selling by US investors.  Wintermute said its internal over‑the‑counter (OTC) flow data confirmed that US counterparties were heavy sellers throughout the week, a trend that was reinforced by ongoing ETF redemptions. Institutional demand, which had supported prices earlier in the cycle, has largely faded. Since November, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $6.2 billion in cumulative net outflows, representing the longest continuous stretch of redemptions since these products launched.  Wintermute explained that when ETF sponsors are forced to sell spot Bitcoin into falling markets, it creates a negative feedback loop that amplifies downside pressure.  The firm also highlighted growing fragility in derivatives markets. IBIT and Deribit together now account for half of the crypto options market. Wintermute said the sharp sell‑off reflected investor complacency after periods of low volatility and sideways trading, which left positioning vulnerable once prices began to move. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Beyond crypto‑specific factors, Wintermute argued that the broader investment landscape has been dominated by artificial intelligence. The firm pointed to a viral chart showing Bitcoin’s performance closely mirroring software stocks in the S&P 500.  According to Wintermute, the more important takeaway is that AI has been absorbing a disproportionate share of global capital, often at the expense of other asset classes, including crypto. Looking ahead, Wintermute expects a period of uneven and volatile price discovery. The firm said it is difficult to envision a sustained rally unless several conditions align: the Coinbase premium turning positive, ETF flows reversing back into inflows, and basis rates in derivatives markets stabilizing.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A prominent market commentator’s offhand remark has set off fresh talk in crypto circles about whether the US might step into the Bitcoin market if prices fall to a certain level. Related Reading: Tron Accumulates TRX, Price Pops As Justin Sun Weighs In Reports say market commentator Jim Cramer told viewers on CNBC that he “heard at $60,000 the President is gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve,” a line that quickly spread across social and financial news feeds. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Talk Gains Traction Based on reports, the comment revived talk about a possible US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and whether any purchases would come from regular Treasury funds or from assets already held by the government. Some outlets pointed out that while the idea makes for a headline, it does not line up with how the government has handled crypto so far. Officials and analysts note that most government Bitcoin holdings have come from seizures and forfeitures, not open market buys. Markets Reacted, But Not Like A Buy Signal Bitcoin prices wobbled as traders parsed the claim. There was a bounce after the recent dip, and some traders read the chatter as extra buying motivation. Yet on-chain checks and wallet scans did not show a pattern that would match a secret, large-scale government accumulation at the lows; holdings reported in public trackers looked steady rather than suddenly growing. Reports analyzing on-chain data say there’s been no clear trace of fresh government buys tied to the $60,000 mark. Why Experts Push Back Other crypto analysts warned that there’s no proof the US will swoop in to buy bitcoin with new taxpayer funds. Legal and budget limits make such purchases complicated: normally, federal bitcoin holdings are handled under rules for seized assets, and any new program to buy crypto with appropriated funds would likely need clear congressional approval or a new legal footing. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In What Remains Unclear Reports note that Washington does hold a lot of Bitcoin on paper, and that makes the topic sensitive. But the key point is this: talk and headlines are not the same as policy. Claims circulating online and on TV have sparked more curiosity than confirmation, and the wallet data that observers can check has not flagged a recent, secret buying spree that would match Cramer’s suggestion. Featured image from So Money Podcast – Farnoosh Torabi, chart from TradingView