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Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $70,000 level after weeks of volatility. Yet repeated failures to hold that threshold with confirmation suggest that demand remains fragile. Each push above this psychological barrier has been met with renewed selling pressure. Reinforcing the view that the market is still navigating a corrective phase rather than establishing a sustained recovery. Sentiment remains cautious as liquidity conditions tighten and traders look for clearer signs of stabilization. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply on Exchanges Mirrors 2016 Levels: What Happens Next? Recent data shared by top on-chain analyst Maartunn highlights a notable shift among large holders. According to the analysis, many whales who entered the market near the $96,000 region are now sitting on significant unrealized losses following the subsequent price decline. After briefly testing those higher levels, Bitcoin reversed sharply, leaving late-cycle entrants exposed to downside pressure. This dynamic suggests that some large investors may be reassessing risk, either reducing exposure or repositioning portfolios amid uncertain macro and crypto-specific conditions. Such behavior often contributes to heightened volatility, particularly when leveraged positions unwind. Whale Capitulation Signals Market Redistribution Phase Recent data shared by on-chain analyst Maartunn highlights a sharp wave of realized losses among large Bitcoin holders, pointing to an evolving market structure rather than a static downturn. According to the figures, realized losses reached approximately $944 million on Feb. 3, $431 million on Feb. 4, $1.46 billion on Feb. 5, and $915 million on Feb. 6. These numbers reflect significant selling activity from investors who accumulated BTC near higher price levels and are now exiting positions under pressure. Such realized losses typically indicate capitulation among late-cycle entrants. When whales sell at a loss, it often means that conviction has weakened or that risk management considerations are taking priority. However, this process also implies redistribution. Coins do not disappear; they transfer from weaker hands to buyers willing to absorb supply at lower prices. Maartunn notes that the estimated cost basis for the newest cohort of large holders is now around $90,000. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent accumulation occurred near that level, creating a potential overhead resistance zone if the price attempts to recover. Markets often evolve through these phases of redistribution. While short-term sentiment may remain fragile, shifts in cost basis and ownership structure can eventually lay the groundwork for stabilization and future trend development. Related Reading: Ethereum Crash Below $2,000 Triggers Record Token Movement: Hinting At Capitulation Bitcoin Price Structure Signals Continued Distribution Phase Bitcoin’s recent price structure reflects a market still dominated by distribution pressure rather than sustained demand recovery. After failing multiple times to consolidate above the $90K–$100K region, BTC entered a persistent downtrend characterized by lower highs and increasingly aggressive selloffs. The latest decline toward the $60K–$70K zone came with a sharp expansion in volume, typically associated with forced liquidations, panic exits, or large portfolio reallocations. From a technical perspective, price now trades clearly below the major moving averages shown on the chart, all of which are trending downward. This configuration usually signals a mature corrective phase rather than a temporary pullback. The inability to reclaim those averages quickly suggests weak spot demand and continued caution among institutional participants. Related Reading: Binance SAFU Fund Adds 3,600 Bitcoin ($233M) As Market Faces Pressure The $60K–$65K region is emerging as a critical support cluster. A sustained hold above this range could stabilize sentiment and allow consolidation. However, failure to maintain this zone would likely expose deeper liquidity pockets below, potentially accelerating volatility. Short term, price action appears reactive rather than directional. Until volume stabilizes and BTC reclaims key trend indicators, rallies may remain corrective. Market structure currently reflects redistribution rather than confirmed accumulation, keeping downside risks structurally elevated. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The founder of CryptoQuant has explained that Bitcoin is not “pumpable” right now based on the divergence in the Market Cap and Realized Cap. Bitcoin Market Cap Fell Even As Realized Cap Grew In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has talked about the difference in growth that the BTC Market Cap and Realized Cap have witnessed over the past year. The Market Cap here is just the total value of the cryptocurrency’s supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap is also a model to calculate BTC’s total valuation, but it doesn’t take such a simple approach. This on-chain capitalization model assumes that the ‘real’ value of any coin in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Under MVRV Band That Marked Last 3 Bottoms In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the amount that the Bitcoin investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the Market Cap represents the value that they are holding in the present. Generally, changes in the former, which can be thought of as capital inflows/outflows, result in changes in the latter. Below is a chart that tracks how the Market Cap is reacting to fluctuations in the Realized Cap. Looks like the value of the metric has been negative in recent weeks | Source: @ki_young_ju on X As displayed in the graph, the growth rate difference between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap was positive in mid-2025, suggesting that the Market Cap was going up faster than the Realized Cap. This changed in the last quarter of the year, however, with the indicator dropping into the negative zone as the market observed a crash. 2026 has only seen the metric drop deeper as the price decline in the cryptocurrency has continued. “Bitcoin is not pumpable right now,” noted Young Ju. The CryptoQuant founder has pointed out the contrast in market dynamics between 2024 and 2025 to showcase his point. In 2024, a $10 billion increase in the Realized Cap was enough to cause a $26 billion jump in the Market Cap. Over the course of 2025, a whopping $308 billion in capital flowed into the asset, yet the Market Cap actually fell by $98 billion. “Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect,” explained the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues In some other news, New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been capitulating recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. “New Whales” are the investors who entered the market within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC in their balance. During the recent price drawdown, this cohort took massive losses, including a loss-taking spike of $1.46 billion on February 5th. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,500, down over 12% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown from its all-time high is being compared to 2022 across crypto Twitter (the similarities are obvious), but some technicians argue the similarity is mostly superficial. In a series of posts, TexasWest Capital CEO Christopher Inks said the current move looks like a completed five-wave decline tied to a positioning washout, not the kind of structurally driven breakdown that defined the 2022 unwind. Bitcoin Vs. 2022: Similar Chart, Different Story? Inks’ core claim is about where the market sits in the broader pattern. “One of the differences between the current drop off the ATH and the 2022 drop of ATH is that we just appear to have completed 5 waves down,” he wrote. “Back then the same area everyone is referencing had already completed five down, the three wave correction, and then broken down further.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See New Drop To $60,000 Despite Bounce – Here’s The Level To Defend On his weekly BTCUSD chart, Inks annotated what he sees as a five-wave decline into early 2026, followed by sideways consolidation around a “weekly pivot,” after what he described as a sharp recovery late last week. The implication is less about calling a definitive bottom and more about sequencing: if the five-wave leg is complete, the next phase is typically corrective or base-building rather than an immediate continuation lower. Inks also separated the catalysts. The 2022 breakdown coincided with the TerraUSD depeg and ensuing market dislocation, a reflexive shock that tightened collateral and impaired liquidity across venues. By contrast, he framed last week’s selling as risk reduction rather than crisis fallout. “Another difference between the two periods is that the former coincided with the TerraUSDT depeg and break down which was a market structural event that was the catalyst for the Bitcoin breakdown at that time,” Inks wrote. “As I’ve been mentioning, last week’s breakdown was a degrossing (risk-off position reduction). These are two wholly different market moves.” “Does this guarantee that the low is in? Of course not, but if you’re comparing two events then you should compare how they occurred and not just that the price action looks kinda similar,” he added. “That way, if price does something other than what it did last time you won’t be running around in disbelief screaming ‘manipulation’ and ‘what’s going on!’” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Inks said Bitcoin failed to reclaim a weekly close back inside the prior range around $75,000, leaving open the possibility that the selloff was a “terminal shakeout” rather than the start of a deeper trend. His roadmap, however, was explicitly time-based: he wants to see the low hold for “the next 2–3 weeks” with “declining volumes on the pullbacks,” plus a higher low on the weekly timeframe and “compression below resistance instead of rejection.” He also tied the move to rates positioning. Inks pointed to a two-year Treasury note futures chart that, in his view, remained coiled rather than breaking higher alongside the risk-off episode, another data point supporting the idea that last week’s selling was “pre-resolution positioning rather than post-crisis fallout.” With regards to the lower timeframes (1-hour chart), Inks urged for patience: “Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways around the weekly pivot, within the range shown. Not surprising after Friday’s strong recovery. Takes time to build confidence after something like that. And if you are hoping the low is in, then that’s what you should prefer to see rather than continued move straight up without building bases to provide support on pullbacks.” At press time, BTC traded at $68,639. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $68,500. BTC is now struggling to clear $72,000 and might start another decline in the near term. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is facing many hurdles near $72,000. The price is trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at $69,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,000 and $67,700 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,000 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. However, the bears seem to be active near the $72,200 and $72,500 levels. Besides, there is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at $69,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,200 level and the trend line. The first key resistance is near the $71,000 level. A close above the $71,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $72,000 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $73,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $74,000 and $74,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $71,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,000 level. The first major support is near the $67,650 level. The next support is now near the $65,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $67,600. Major Resistance Levels – $71,500 and $72,000.

Bitcoin’s mining landscape is showing clear signs of stress as network difficulty records its largest downward adjustment since 2021. The sharp drop reflects a wave of miners shutting off machines or exiting entirely, squeezed by declining profitability, higher operating costs, and prolonged price pressure. As inefficient miners step aside and difficulty adjusts lower, the stage is set for consolidation across the mining sector. What Miner Capitulation Says About Near-Term Bitcoin Sentiment One of the most telling signals in the market is happening right now. The CEO of Coinbureau, known as Nic, revealed on X that Bitcoin mining difficulty just experienced its biggest drop since 2021, which means a meaningful number of miners are either shutting machines off or exiting the network entirely. At the same time, some miners are actively pivoting away from BTC and moving into AI and hyperscale data centers. Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Bitfarms is a clear example, as its stock surged after announcing it is no longer positioning itself primarily as a BTC mining company. It’s not just that mining is harder, but because prices are down, and margins are tight. Instead, markets are actively rewarding miners for leaving BTC and reallocating into AI infrastructure, signaling that capital sees more returns outside BTC mining. A Statistical Outlier In Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin has just printed a 5.65 standard deviation move, an event so extreme that it has occurred only 13 times in more than 5,000 trading days. According to Front Runners on X, Standard deviation measures how far a price move deviates from the average daily change. Most daily BTC moves fall within ±1 standard deviation, which is roughly 70% of the time, and any moves beyond 3 standard deviations are already considered rare. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Reset Complete? BTC Steadies Above $70K as Markets Debate the Next Move A 5+ standard deviation move sits at extreme territory. Historically, BTC has seen similar moves of volatility in January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020, all periods that closely aligned with major cycle bottoms. This doesn’t mean it is a reversal recovery to the upside, as BTC could still consolidate sideways for months. However, this is the kind of volatility move that tends to happen near exhaustion, not mid-trend. This fast and aggressive crypto bear market is likely closer to a bottom than a top. Analyst Scient has highlighted that for Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets, this is not the environment to chase trades. Instead, it’s the phase to plan buys using a structured Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy over the coming weeks and months. There is no reliable way to time an exact bottom outside of pure luck. As prices trend lower, downside targets will continue to shift lower, creating frustration for anyone trying to trade every move. Scient emphasized that a simple spot accumulation using dollar-cost averaging in BTC and strong alts will outperform gambling on leverage for most participants. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have rebounded from last week’s lows, providing optimism that the bottom may be in. This comes amid accumulation from whales while the crypto ETFs have seen notable inflows following last week’s outflows.  Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Climbing Again The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have pumped from their last week’s lows of around $60,000 and $1,900, respectively. BTC climbed to as high as $71,000, sparking bullish sentiments that the crash to $60,000 may have marked the bottom. These price surges have come on the back of significant accumulation from both retail and institutional investors.  Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed two whales that are buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. These two newly created wallets are said to have withdrawn 3,500 BTC, worth $249 million, and 30,000 ETH, worth $63 million, from Binance, likely to hold these coins for the long term.  Furthermore, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have also rebounded due to renewed inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs. SoSoValue data shows that the BTC ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $145 million yesterday, sustaining the momentum from last Friday, when they took in $371 million, after recording three consecutive days of outflows.  Further data from SoSoValue shows that the Ethereum ETFs saw daily net inflows of $57 million yesterday, reversing the trend after seeing three consecutive daily net outflows. Tom Lee’s BitMine also continues to buy more ETH, which is a positive for the Ethereum price. Lookonchain revealed that BitMine bought 40,000 ETH, worth $83 million, yesterday. These purchases come just after the company announced it had purchased 40,613 ETH, valued at $82.85 million, last week.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? It is also worth highlighting external factors that have contributed to the recent rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran appear to have cooled following talks last Friday, after initial reports that the talks were unlikely to proceed. Meanwhile, traders are beginning to price in the possibility of a rate cut in March after recent job reports came in weak.  Bullish Case For BTC And ETH Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has made a bullish case for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. In an X post, he stated that he expects to see more momentum coming in for BTC, with a clear breakout above $71,500 in the coming days. The analyst added that the pattern is comparable to the COVID crash, and he thinks a rally to between $78,000 and $80,000 could occur in the coming weeks.  For Ethereum, Michaël van de Poppe stated that this is a “tremendous” opportunity to be looking at ETH because there is a massive gap to the ‘fair price.’ He added that ETH’s current valuation, based on the MVRV ratio, is just as underpriced as during notable crashes such as the peak of the 2018 bear market and the April 2025 crash when Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.  Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is tightening between two major liquidity pools, with both bulls and bears sitting on borrowed time. As pressure builds and liquidity stacks on both sides, the next move looks less about direction and more about which side gets wiped out first. HTF Liquidity At $65,300 Remains The Primary Target Lennaert Snyder’s latest Bitcoin analysis remains focused on a significant High-Timeframe (HTF) liquidity pool located around the $65,300 zone. This area is designated as a major box of interest for hunting long positions. Rather than setting a blind entry, the strategy involves waiting for the price to penetrate this zone and then monitoring for high-probability reversal patterns to confirm a bottom. Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target Before reaching the lower HTF liquidity, there are potential local short-selling opportunities to trade the downward move. The first point of interest is the M15 liquidity sweep around $69,900. If the price reaches this level and captures the liquidity, the plan is to initiate a short position only after a confirmed bearish market structure break. A similar short-selling logic applies to the liquidity resting above the $71,450 level. Should Bitcoin push higher and sweep this liquidity, the expert is positioned for a subsequent bearish market structure shift, which signals a move back toward the primary $65,300 target. The analysis emphasizes patience and trigger-based entries over predictive guessing because the exact depth of the test into the $65,300 box is unpredictable. Liquidity Magnets Light Up On Bitcoin 24-Hour Heatmap Coin Adam pointed out that Bitcoin’s 24-hour heat map clearly highlights where liquidity is clustered, raising the key question of which side market makers may target next. According to Adam, current conditions suggest the market is being pulled between two powerful liquidity magnets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $70K As Volatility Goes Quiet On the downside, the $67,800–$68,200 zone stands out as a bright liquidity pool. This area is packed with long positions, making it an attractive target for a downside sweep. Coin Adam noted that a sharp wick into this range to grab liquidity and rebuild momentum remains a very realistic scenario. On the upside, there is also notable short squeeze potential between $71,500 and $72,500, where a heavy concentration of short positions sits. If Bitcoin can hold convincingly above the $70,000 level, a strong bullish candle could push the price above to fill the gap. Overall, Adam explained that price is currently compressed between two major liquidity blocks, a setup that often resolves with a move toward the most prominent target. While both sides remain vulnerable, Coin Adam believes a sweep below $68,000 appears more likely in the near term, before any larger move toward the $72,000–$76,000 region unfolds. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is seeing large institutional withdrawals while XRP is drawing the strongest share of fresh allocations, according to the latest digital asset fund-flow data. On paper, that rotation should support XRP’s valuation. Instead, prices across the market remain under pressure. The disconnect between capital movement and market performance is now forcing a deeper examination of liquidity conditions, regional positioning, and broader cycle dynamics driving the divergence. Bitcoin Outflows Are Driving XRP Inflows Data from CoinShares’ weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report shows Bitcoin recorded $264 million in outflows over the measured week, making it the only major asset to post significant negative sentiment. The withdrawals extend Bitcoin’s year-to-date outflows to $984 million, reinforcing that institutions are actively reducing exposure rather than passively rebalancing. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios At the same time, XRP attracted $63.1 million in weekly inflows — the highest across all tracked assets. Its cumulative inflows have now reached $109 million year-to-date, positioning it as the strongest institutional allocation target so far this year. While Solana drew $8.2 million and Ethereum recorded $5.3 million, neither came close to XRP’s scale, confirming the rotation is concentrated rather than market-wide. Regional flow reinforces the rotation. Germany led with $87.1 million in inflows, followed by Switzerland ($30.1 million), Canada ($21.4 million), and Brazil ($16.7 million). The United States moved in the opposite direction, posting $214 million in weekly outflows and contributing to $1.464 billion in cumulative withdrawals from US -listed products. However, despite XRP’s leadership in inflows, total digital asset investment products still recorded $187 million in net outflows. This indicates that while Bitcoin capital is partly rotating into XRP, a meaningful share is exiting crypto entirely, diluting the price impact of inflows. Liquidity Contraction And Market Structure Are Pressuring Price XRP’s price behavior reflects wider liquidity constraints. The asset is currently trading at $1.42, down 12.3% over the past week. The drop highlights how inflows are being absorbed without translating into immediate price expansion. Related Reading: Expert Says If You Hold XRP, Pay Attention To These Things Moreover, total assets under management across digital asset funds have fallen to $129.8 billion, the lowest since March 2025. With the institutional capital base contracting, new allocations carry less price impact than they would in an expanding market. Trading dynamics further clarify the pressure. Exchange-traded product volumes reached a record $63.1 billion, surpassing the previous $56.4 billion peak recorded in October. High volume alongside falling prices typically signals distribution, liquidations, or hedging rather than accumulation. Bitcoin’s systemic role amplifies the effect. As the market’s primary liquidity anchor, sustained BTC outflows create correlation drag across digital assets, limiting XRP’s ability to respond positively to inflows. CoinShares analysts add that while outflows persist, their pace is slowing — a pattern often associated with late-cycle capitulation and potential bottom formation. Within that framework, XRP’s inflows may represent early institutional positioning ahead of stabilization rather than a catalyst for immediate price expansion. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP’s recent slide has left traders asking whether the worst is over. Prices have been weak since Q4 2025, and reports say the token has lost roughly half its value from an October opening near $2.80 to about $1.42 as we speak. That drop came with a sharp move in momentum indicators, which traders rarely ignore. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Extreme RSI Readings Near A 12-Year Low According to market reports, the daily relative strength index fell to about 17 on Feb. 5, pushing readings to levels not seen in over a decade. That is an extreme number for RSI on a daily chart. When readings hit this depth, past action has often produced strong, quick rebounds. History does not promise a repeat, but it does give a pattern that many traders watch closely. Patterns From The Past Offer Both Hope And A Warning Reports note several prior episodes when low RSI numbers lined up with sharp recoveries. After an October low, a bounce of roughly 70% came in just nearly half a month. Other lows in mid-2024 and April 2024 produced gains of about 65% and 35% within short windows of days. Those moves were fast, and they were driven by buyers jumping in when momentum looked exhausted. Still, past rebounds can be followed by renewed selling, and what happened before isn’t guaranteed to happen again. XRP just hit an RSI of 20 on the daily—the most oversold it’s ever been in its history. Every single time XRP has hit these extreme levels, a 15-40% bounce followed within two weeks. Not sometimes. Every time. Relief bounce to $2.20-$2.50 is the highest probability setup we’ve… pic.twitter.com/F8e7WBRbyu — Ripple Bull Winkle | Crypto Researcher ???????? (@RipBullWinkle) February 5, 2026 Major Bounce In The Offing? A vocal market commentator, crypto researcher Ripple Bull Winkle, has pointed to those patterns and argued that a 15%–40% bounce often follows such extreme readings. Based on reports, that view has traction with some traders, who are watching for signs of a short squeeze or a flush that shakes out weak hands. Other traders caution against leaning on a single signal. The broader market, macro news, and funds’ behavior can overwhelm technical cues. Large short-liquidity zones above $2.25 and between $4.20 and $4.40 are on the chart; if price hits those spots, moves can accelerate quickly. XRP’s Position Versus Major Coins XRP has not been alone in losing ground, but its pair trades show some relative strength. The XRP/ETH pair has been in a range since August 2025, and XRP/BTC recovered after a brief breakdown. Dominance metrics have held near the 3.5% area and have even bounced to roughly 3.6%. These data points mean XRP isn’t collapsing in isolation; it’s moving inside a market that’s broadly weak. What Traders Might Watch Next Volume will matter. So will daily closes above key resistances and whether the RSI climbs out of extreme territory with conviction. A clean break above the $2.25 level could put the next targets in view, while failure to sustain a bounce would likely keep sellers in control. Related Reading: Tron Accumulates TRX, Price Pops As Justin Sun Weighs In Risk control is expected to be important; many moves after deep oversold readings were sharp but short-lived, so position sizing and stop rules have a practical role. For now, reports say the setup is one of opportunity and danger at once. Traders who are watching momentum see a chance for a quick recovery. Others note that structural selling and wider market pressures could blunt any rally. Either way, the coming days should show whether this is a relief bounce or the start of something larger. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

As the crypto market recovers from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial price zone. Despite the bounce, some analysts have warned that the bottom may not be in yet, suggesting the flagship crypto could soon retest its recent lows. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Bottom Below $60,000, Says Analyst On Monday, Bitcoin continued its sideways move, trying to turn a key area into support for the third consecutive day. After hitting a two-year low of $60,000 last week, the flagship crypto has bounced 17.5% to trade between $68,000 and $72,000 over the past few days. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the upper zone of its short-term price range, raising questions about the direction of BTC’s next move. As the price recovered, Crypto Bullet noted that the BTC printed a “strong weekly close” above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), leaving Thursday’s correction as a long wick. The analyst cautioned that these wicks have usually been filled the following week, pointing to the late February 2025 and early October 2025 corrections and the subsequent performance. Based on this, he suggested that Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 area again, where the 200-week Moving Average (MA) is also located. Similarly, Ted Pillows highlighted BTC’s Monday bounce above $70,000, asserting that the key level to defend is the $68,000 support, where the EMA200 sits.  If the price fails to hold this level, the market observer suggested a deeper correction could be expected, with Bitcoin risking a drop below the recent lows if that level also fails to hold. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez hinted that BTC’s bottom might not be in, as “Bitcoin has historically bottomed around the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.” According to the chart shared on X, that level currently sits at $52,040. BTC To See Leeser Relief Rally? Another market watcher highlighted BTC’s macro descending triangle pattern, which it has been forming in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, suggesting that its potential bounce could be a “lesser relief rally compared to the 2024-2025 advance to the upside.” Rekt Capital noted that upon breakdown from its macro triangles, Bitcoin tends to react from the 50-Month EMA. However, it has historically been followed by a downside deviation below this level. “When viewed through the lens of the Macro Descending Triangle, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently failed to revisit the base of the Macro Triangle following breakdowns, which means BTC may fall short of $82.5k on any upcoming relief rally.” To the analyst, if BTC can build support above the $71,000 area, where the post-halving accumulation breakout occurred, the price could attempt a move into the mid-$70,000. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Clears The Threshold For Institutional Settlement – Here’s How However, the flagship crypto “is still negotiating whether it will locate itself within the Post-Halving Range,” and has not decisively reclaimed the upper zone of its current range as support, “is instead showing early signs of flipping into resistance on the Weekly timeframe.” As a result, Bitcoin could consolidate around its post-halving range again if the $70,000 mark confirms as resistance. “At roughly 30% of the way through this part of the market cycle, there remains ample time for further structural movement to unfold but history suggests whatever clustering develops will likely be distributive before continuing additional Bearish Acceleration,” Rekt Capital concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Despite a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices since last October, analysts at Bernstein argue that the current downturn does not resemble a traditional crypto bear market.  In a note to clients released on Monday, the firm described the pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” even as the asset has fallen about 44% from its all‑time highs in current trading. Bernstein Defends Bitcoin’s Fundamentals The analysis was led by Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, who said the recent sell‑off reflects a loss of confidence rather than deeper structural problems.  The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact and that the decline should not be mistaken for a systemic breakdown. Bernstein reaffirmed its long‑term outlook, maintaining a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bernstein noted that many of the “red flags” that have historically preceded major Bitcoin crashes are missing this time. The analyst asserts that there have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the crypto ecosystem.  Instead, the firm sees a market weighed down by negative sentiment, even as broader conditions appear unusually favorable. The analysts pointed to what they described as strong institutional support for Bitcoin.  This includes a pro‑Bitcoin US president, the continued expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), growing adoption by corporate treasuries, and sustained interest from large asset managers.  In Bernstein’s view, these factors clearly distinguish the current cycle from past downturns that were driven by excess risk and fragile market structures. Holders And Miners Can Weather Long Downturn The firm also addressed shifting narratives around technology trends. Bernstein noted that some investors now argue Bitcoin has become irrelevant as global attention turns toward artificial intelligence (AI).  The analysts dismissed that view, saying it reflects changing investor focus rather than a genuine threat to Bitcoin’s role. They added that fears around quantum computing have similarly been overstated, pointing out that such risks would affect all critical digital systems, not just Bitcoin. The firm further downplayed fears of forced selling driven by corporate treasuries or miner capitulation. Bernstein said major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to withstand prolonged downturns.  Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Referencing comments from Strategy’s recent earnings call, the analysts noted that only an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years—would trigger a need for restructuring. Miners, they added, are also better positioned than in past cycles. Many have diversified their revenue by reallocating power resources toward AI data center demand, reducing reliance on Bitcoin mining alone and easing pressure from production costs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,627, having recorded losses of 20% and 22% over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is continuing its long‑standing Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation strategy despite ongoing market weakness and growing concerns around the firm’s unrealized losses.  At the same time, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by well‑known market strategist Tom Lee, has revealed a major expansion of its Ethereum (ETH) holdings, underscoring a broader trend of corporate crypto accumulation even as prices remain under pressure. Strategy Adds 1,142 BTC Despite Rising Losses  In a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed on Monday, Strategy reported the purchase of an additional 1,142 Bitcoin for approximately $90 million.  The acquisition was made between February 2 and February 8 at an average price of $78,815 per coin, according to the company’s 8‑K filing with the regulator. The move extends Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying campaign, even as the value of its massive crypto treasury remains below its total acquisition cost on paper. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In With the latest purchase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have climbed to 714,644 BTC, a position currently valued at roughly $49 billion based on prevailing market prices.  The company has spent about $54.4 billion to build its Bitcoin reserves, including fees and related expenses. Across all acquisitions, Strategy’s average purchase price now stands at $76,056 per Bitcoin, well above current trading prices. Concerns around Strategy’s balance sheet have resurfaced amid the recent Bitcoin sell‑off. As previously reported by NewsBTC, CEO Phong Le stated that Bitcoin would need to fall by roughly 90% from current levels for the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings to merely match the value of its outstanding convertible debt.  Even under such an extreme scenario, Le said the company would explore restructuring options if converting the debt into equity were not feasible. Bitmine’s Crypto And Cash Holdings Reach $10B  On Monday, Bitmine disclosed that its combined crypto holdings, cash, and so‑called “moonshot” investments now total approximately $10 billion. As of February 8, the company’s crypto portfolio includes 4,325,738 ETH valued at $2,125 per token, alongside 193 Bitcoin. Beyond cryptocurrencies, Bitmine reported additional investments including a $200 million stake in Beast Industries, a $19 million stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), and total cash reserves of $595 million.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? The company noted in a Monday press release that its Ethereum holdings represent approximately 3.58% of the total ETH supply, which currently stands at around 120.7 million tokens. Thomas Lee, Executive Chairman of Bitmine, said the company acquired 40,613 ETH over the past week alone. He described the recent pullback in Ethereum prices as an attractive opportunity, arguing that the market is underestimating ETH’s long‑term utility.  Bitmine also revealed that a significant portion of its Ethereum holdings is actively staked. As of February 8, 2026, the company had 2,897,459 ETH staked, valued at approximately $6.2 billion at current prices. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $69,495, reflecting an almost 11% decline over the past week. Strategy’s shares showed a modest rebound, rising 0.82% on Monday to trade around $136 per share. Bitmine’s stock, BMNR, also moved higher, climbing roughly 2% during Monday’s session to trade near $20.91. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Kevin Warsh’s push for a new Fed–Treasury “accord” is reigniting a familiar market argument: whether Washington is drifting toward a softer-rate, higher-liquidity regime that tends to favor hard assets, including bitcoin and crypto, even if it raises the stakes for bonds. The debate flared after Bloomberg reported that Kevin Warsh floated the idea of “a new accord with the Treasury Department,” echoing the 1951 agreement that redefined the relationship between the two institutions. Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the concept could amount to a limited bureaucratic revamp, but a more ambitious effort could “see increased volatility and concern over the US central bank’s independence,” depending on how explicitly it links the Fed’s balance sheet decisions to Treasury financing. Looming over the idea is the political pressure to treat debt-service costs as a policy constraint. Bloomberg pointed to interest costs “running at an annual clip of around $1 trillion,” and quoted SGH Macro Advisors’ Tim Duy warning that an accord could be read as something more than process reform. “Rather than insulating the Fed, it could look more like a framework for yield-curve control,” Duy said. “A public agreement that synchronizes the Fed’s balance sheet with Treasury financing explicitly ties monetary operations to deficits.” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Can Bitcoin Get The Bid? In bitcoin circles, the accord conversation is being interpreted through the lens of yield-curve control (YCC) and debt monetization, not just the path of the policy rate. Luke Gromen framed it bluntly, citing a recent FFTT view: “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” He added a familiar punchline for macro traders: “Math > Narratives (again).” “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” -FFTT, last week Math > Narratives (again) pic.twitter.com/aHMDlz2jzM — Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) February 8, 2026 Analyst Lukas Ekwueme took the argument further: “Warsh, the next Fed chair, will inflate the debt away. He is in favor of yield curve control. This means pegging US short-term interest rates to an artificially low level. The Fed commits to buying unlimited amounts above that level to push interest rates down.” In that telling, the Fed pegs yields at “an artificially low level” and backs the peg with potentially unlimited purchases — a structure Ekwueme compared to the World War II era. He argued the political logic is straightforward: nominating someone “more hawkish than Powell” would clash with Trump’s prior attacks on the Fed for being too hawkish, making a dovish tilt the more consistent outcome. Bull Theory, a crypto-focused account, echoed the historical parallel while stressing that Warsh’s public framing is also about reducing the Fed’s entanglement in long-duration government financing. The account argued Warsh could prefer a portfolio shift toward Treasury bills, a smaller balance sheet, and clearer limits on when large bond-buying programs can occur — potentially with “closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.” But it also warned the market shouldn’t confuse “limits” with “tightening” if the end result is a policy mix that suppresses real yields and keeps liquidity conditions easy. CoinFund President Christopher Perkins added: “I continue to think that the crypto markets got the Warsh appointment wrong. A new Fed-Treasury Accord is the plan…has been all along. Additional coordination, or any shift in responsibilities to Scott Bessent and the US Treasury will bullish for crypto IMO–once things settle. At least for the next 3 years.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? For bitcoin, the central question is the direction of real yields and the credibility of the “independence” anchor because both feed into how investors price fiat debasement risk and liquidity scarcity. The pro-crypto interpretation is consistent: if an accord evolves into a framework that caps parts of the curve or otherwise lowers real yields, it can push capital out the risk-free complex and into assets that behave like inflation hedges or duration substitutes. Bull Theory put it in plain terms: “If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto. Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives.” The caveat is that the same setup could increase volatility in rates markets. Bloomberg flagged that an ambitious accord could spook investors about the Fed’s independence, while Bull Theory argued that reduced Fed support for long-term yields alongside heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the curve and lift term premiums. For crypto traders, that combination can create a two-speed regime: supportive liquidity narratives on one hand, and sudden risk-off impulses if bond volatility spills into broader financial conditions. At press time, BTC traded at $69,151. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $68,000. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,200 zone. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is facing many hurdles near $72,000. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with support at $68,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,800 and $67,700 levels. Bitcoin Price Stays In A Range Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,800 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the main slide from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. However, the bears seem to be active near the $72,000 and $72,500 levels. Besides, there is a rising channel forming with support at $68,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,800, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the main slide from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. The first key resistance is near the $72,500 level. A close above the $72,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $74,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,880 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,500 and $77,200. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $69,400 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level. The next support is now near the $67,600 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,600. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $72,500.

Big players in crypto appear ready to buy up smaller projects, and the shakeup could speed up now that prices have cooled. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In According to Bullish CEO Tom Farley, the same consolidation that reshaped traditional exchanges is likely to play out across digital-asset firms, with acquisitions replacing a long run of stand-alone hopefuls. Farley says overblown price tags kept many weak businesses afloat longer than they should have, and that reality is finally catching up. Bigger Crypto Firms Eye Smaller Players Farley, who led the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) until 2018, said during an interview on CNBC on Friday that many teams mistook products for businesses — a distinction he argues is costly. Companies with modest or stalled revenue were being talked about as if they were ready for blockbuster buyouts. That story, he added, ends when confidence in inflated valuations fades and buyers demand scale and repeatable income. Mergers will pick winners. Some teams will be swallowed; others will vanish. Valuations And VC Discipline Reports say venture capitalists have already tightened their grips. Eva Oberholzer, chief investment officer at Ajna Capital, said last September that VCs are far more selective now, shifting toward projects with steady revenue and clearer business models. That change in funding behavior has left many early-stage plays without the runway they once enjoyed. The money that once chased ideas now chases proof. Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin’s swings are part of why buyers are cautious. Based on real-time data, BTC has been trading in the $68k-$70k lately, well off the October peak above $126,000. Daily moves of multiple thousands of dollars are common, and traders are jittery as broader markets wobble. Reports note that the recent volatility followed heavy losses across risk assets and a spike in hedging activity, which made short-term momentum hard to read. Related Reading: Breathe… XRP Is The ‘Oxygen’ Of The New Financial System, CEO Says What That Means For Teams And Workers When companies merge, duplication often follows. Engineers, product leads, and support staff may find roles cut as overlapping systems are folded together. Some projects will be integrated and given new life inside larger platforms; others will be wound down. For holders and small investors, the change can be abrupt. Buyers will prize clear revenue lines and strong custody, not dreams of a future payout. Featured image from AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Ross Gerber, a renowned Tesla investor and Co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, has identified the primary reason Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $70,000. The CEO has attributed the decline in the leading cryptocurrency and the broader market to the rise of scam tokens and shit coins in the space.  The Truth Behind Bitcoin’s Crash Below $70,000 The Bitcoin price dropped below $70,000 last week, sparking fear and uncertainty across the market. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency crashed, other major digital assets followed, fueling the broader market decline. In his X post on February 7, Gerber has shared insights into the factors driving Bitcoin’s recent downturn. Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? According to him, the market is currently being undermined by a surge in scam tokens, citing meme-based cryptocurrencies such as the TRUMP coin. He explained that bad actors are increasingly entering the space, launching low-quality or fake tokens with little to no utility or real value while generating hype and FOMO. When investors buy these tokens, they often suffer losses from rug pulls, sudden crashes, or other fraudulent schemes.  Based on Gerber’s report, scam tokens have not only eroded crypto investors’ confidence and discouraged market participation, but have also diverted capital that could have flowed into legitimate cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The Gerber Kawasaki CEO also highlighted that another key factor behind Bitcoin’s continued decline is the absence of new market catalysts.  He suggested that the market is largely driven by the same underlying factors, with only minor fluctuations from short-term moves by bag holders. In 2024, Bitcoin experienced sharp gains following the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additional momentum came from catalysts like an increase in institutional demand. Recently, this demand has been declining. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record massive outflows, macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, and Bitcoin continues to face strong sell-offs and volatility. Gerber also agrees that Bitcoin’s current downturn is exacerbated by selling pressure from leveraged traders, whose forced liquidations trigger a chain reaction that pushes prices lower.  Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Are Still Crashing Today Despite the negative trend, Gerber frames the situation as an opportunity for long-term investors. He noted that the decline in Bitcoin’s price allows seasoned players to buy the cryptocurrency at discounted “panic-level” prices, positioning these investors for potential gains once market conditions stabilize.  Analysts Predict Bitcoin Price Dump To $42,000 After Bitcoin’s brief decline below $70,000, analysts warn that further weakness may be imminent. Crypto expert Chiefy has forecasted that the Bitcoin price is preparing for another massive dump to $42,000 as early as next week.  With its price currently trading above $69,800, this would reflect a more than 40% crash. Chiefy notes that BTC’s slight recovery a few days ago was the final bull trap of this cycle and cautioned that things are about to get much worse. He urged investors and traders to prepare for a real bear market. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The cryptocurrency industry went under intense pressure last week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the crash and multiple cryptocurrencies hitting new multi-month lows. The crash was more pronounced with Bitcoin, though, and the imbalance in selling pressure is quietly shifting the relationship between the two assets.  The interesting imbalance is relayed in Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin. A technical analysis of the ETH/BTC ratio shared on the social media platform X by Jonathan Carter indicates that Ethereum may be approaching a critical breakout point against Bitcoin, following an extended period of compression on the 2-week candlestick timeframe chart. Long-Term Triangle On The Verge Of Break According to technical analysis of the ETH/BTC 2-week chart, Ethereum is nearing an important point against Bitcoin after years of consolidation beneath a descending trendline. This long-running pattern originates from a major peak in relative valuation in July 2017, when 1 ETH was worth 0.154 BTC in Bitcoin terms, and has since formed a series of lower highs to form a falling resistance trendline. The lower boundary of this pattern is a long-tested support zone around 0.02 that has repeatedly drawn buying interest for Ethereum in relation to Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Is Not Going To Keep Falling Forever, Analyst Says At the time of writing, the ETH/BTC ratio is trading around 0.030. However, the most recent 2-week candlestick has flipped green, and this development is important to the bullish outlook of Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin. The bullish projection is based on a full playout of the green candlestick with a push towards the descending triangle’s resistance trendline. If the pair can convincingly break above the descending triangle’s upper trend boundary with sustained momentum, then this would allow Ethereum to enter a phase of sustained outperformance against Bitcoin. How High Could ETH/BTC Go If A Breakout Happens? Crypto analyst Jonathan Carter outlined a series of potential upside targets should the ETH/BTC pair break free from its downward trend. The first target is around 0.040 BTC, which would represent a clear departure from the compressed range seen across recent months. If momentum continues, higher potential objectives include 0.060, 0.085, 0.105, 0.124, and all the way up to the 2017 peak of 0.154. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Still Trading Sideways Translating these ratio-based targets into absolute price levels is less straightforward, as the projections are based on Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin and not standalone price moves. Such a performance can happen in two major ways: either Ethereum receives more inflows than Bitcoin, or Bitcoin could crash more than Ethereum during a market-wide correction. The former scenario would most likely translate into a sustained rotation into Ethereum and the wider altcoin market, setting the stage for an altcoin season. Nonetheless, both scenarios will see the otherwise strong Bitcoin dominance dropping massively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s slide to $60,000 on Feb. 6 triggered a sharp surge of exchange inflows that on-chain analyst Darkfost called a capitulation event, with short-term holders and small “shrimp” wallets leading the move. It wasn’t just retail panic either—flows jumped on venues that pros actually use. Darkfost said the selloff “reignited investor anxiety” after BTC revisited a price level “not…since October 2024,” alongside a broader drawdown “exceeding 50% from the last all time high.” It wasn’t only where BTC traded. It was how fast it got there. “The acceleration of this correction created a clear fear driven dynamic,” he said. People rushed coins onto exchanges. That only added fuel to the liquidation fire. “Unsurprisingly, Short Term Holders were the first to react emotionally.” Bitcoin Capitulation Event What stood out: short-term holders were piling into Binance deposits first—the usual ‘quick to flinch’ group. On Feb. 6 alone, Binance inflows attributed to STHs on a 7-day sum basis “exceeded 100,000 BTC,” surpassing activity seen during the April 2025 correction, he said. Across venues, the scale was larger still. From Feb. 4 to Feb. 6, nearly “241,000 BTC were sent to various exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. It’s tough to interpret that as anything but selling pressure. In his view, the resulting wave of deposits compounded volatility already elevated by forced liquidations and de-risking. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap While Binance tends to capture large swaths of retail-driven flow, Darkfost flagged a concurrent surge on Coinbase Advanced, which he described as widely used by institutions, active traders, and professional desks. On Feb. 6, BTC inflows there hit roughly “27,000 BTC.” That’s a real spike. That’s the part that messes with the easy “retail panic” story. When you see it on both Binance and Coinbase, it’s probably not just one crowd freaking out. Darkfost put it bluntly: “nervousness…not limited to retail investors.” In a separate post focused on small holders, Darkfost argued that retail participation had been unusually muted for much of the cycle, then abruptly reappeared during the drop. He looked at Binance deposits from wallets under 1 BTC—the “shrimps,” usually the most jumpy. On Feb. 5, shrimp inflows to Binance exceeded “1,000 BTC in a single day,” versus a monthly average “closer to 365 BTC,” according to Darkfost. He noted the last comparable spike was in July 2025, but in a very different market regime, when Bitcoin was still pushing toward new highs. Same kind of flow, totally different mood. Darkfost also tied the move to cost-basis dynamics that have increasingly squeezed holders as the correction deepened. He said Bitcoin “has put all STH under pressure and is now beginning to test LTH,” adding that the first long-term holder cohorts—6 to 12 months and 12 to 18 months—were already underwater with cost bases of “$103,188” and “$85,849.” Related Reading: Kevin Warsh Will Trigger Bitcoin Regime Shift, Jeff Park Says He pointed to a reaction after price reached the realized price of the 18-month to 2-year cohort at “$63,654,” calling it “likely an area of interest for these holders.” He also noted that their rising cost basis suggests higher-cost coins have aged into that bracket. His take: this was an exhaustion flush, and it won’t reset overnight. “These capitulation moves have pushed BTC into an extreme oversold zone that the market will now need time to absorb and digest,” he wrote. After briefly slipping below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded and was “trading again around $71,000.” Darkfost said that stabilization lined up with retail flows drifting back toward their average. That takes one obvious source of sell pressure off the table. The bigger question is whether this was the low—or just a breather in a nasty, high-volatility regime. At press time, BTC traded at $69,525. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from $60,000. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,000 zone. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,500 and $67,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Holds Support Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $65,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,500 resistance zone. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $71,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,650 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level. The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $74,650.

Bitcoin’s next big options gravity well sits on Mar. 27 (260327), and the reason is simple: this is where the market has parked a thick stack of conditional bets that will need to be unwound, rolled forward, or paid out as the clock runs down. The Mar. 27 expiry carries about $8.65B in notional OI […]
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On Jan.30, 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $509.7 million in net outflows, which looks like pretty straightforward negative sentiment until you look at the individual tickers and realize a few of them stayed green. That contradiction aged fast over the next few days. Feb. 2 snapped back with $561.8 million in net inflows, then […]
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Bitcoin trades every minute of every day, but CME Bitcoin futures stop for the weekend. That mismatch is how a CME gap is born, and why it keeps turning up in the middle of the most stressful weeks. A CME gap is the blank space on a CME futures chart between Friday’s final traded level […]
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Bitcoin’s slide through $65,000 and toward $60,000 felt like a stress test the market had been postponing. The move was sharp enough to force a reset in positioning, and broad enough to pull the conversation away from single-catalyst explanations. Even mainstream media described the week as Bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since late 2022, with price briefly […]
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Bitcoin is navigating one of its deepest conviction zones yet, a phase that tests nerves more than it screams opportunity. While prices drift and fear dominates the market, smart money quietly accumulates, laying the groundwork for the next potential trend shift.  Testing Conviction: Bitcoin In One Of Its Deepest Bear Market Zones Over the past few weeks, volatility has intensified, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall sharply. Marcus Corvinus highlighted that Bitcoin is trading in one of the deepest bear market zones in history, an area that doesn’t shout buy now but instead tests conviction and patience. These are the zones where price can drift aimlessly, bleed, and frustrate traders for weeks or even months. It’s not a sign of weakness; rather, strong hands are quietly accumulating while fear dominates the market narrative. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows These phases are always messy and uncomfortable. Sentiment is crushed, capitulation feels endless, and confidence is at its lowest. Retail traders often panic or step aside during these times, which is exactly why these opportunities are so often missed.  The real shift in trend rarely begins with hype or dramatic rallies. Instead, it starts with stabilization, absorption, and subtle recovery signals that are only visible to those who are patient. Quiet accumulation, a slowing of selling pressure, and small rebounds all hint that the market may be preparing for its next meaningful move. History doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It punishes doubt before it rewards belief. Marcus concludes that he is watching this zone very closely. While it won’t last forever, when it finally ends, most market participants will wish they had paid attention. The opportunity lies in recognizing the signals while others are blinded by fear and frustration. Resistance Holds At $71,000 — What It Means For Bulls Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin is moving largely as expected. As previously mentioned, a pullback from the $61,000–$58,000 zone toward the $70,000–$67,000 area was likely, and that scenario has unfolded precisely as predicted. The market reacted within this range, confirming the anticipated short-term price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows Crypto Candy also highlighted that although BTC touched $71,000, it was unable to close above that level on the daily timeframe. This reinforces the idea that until Bitcoin decisively reclaims this zone, short-term retracements remain the primary expectation. Looking ahead, Crypto Candy emphasized that a bullish scenario can only be considered in the short term if BTC closes above $71,000. Until that happens, the market may continue to test lower ranges, and retracements from the current zone are expected. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto expert Tony Severino has opined that Bitcoin isn’t just showing signs of a yearly top but also that the BTC price may have hit a 16-year cyclical peak. This comes amid the flagship crypto’s recent crash to $60,000, which sparked fears of a bear market. Bitcoin May Be Showing Signs Of A Peak Amid BTC Price Crash To $60,000 In an X post, Severino alluded to the yearly Bitcoin chart, which he said looks like a 16-year cyclical peak rather than just a yearly top. The expert also outlined several reasons this appears to be a major cyclical top for the BTC price. First, he noted that the white candlesticks have been decreasing in size over time, while black candlesticks engulf more white candles with each appearance.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Furthermore, Severino highlighted the Doji at the top of a rising wedge pattern while the Evening Star is in progress, which is a bearish reversal signal for the BTC price. Meanwhile, the Fischer Transform is crossing bearish with divergence, and the Stochastic is crossing bearish after being rejected from 80. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling back below 70 after making it above this level on the highest timeframe chart.  His analysis comes as the BTC price continues to decline, suggesting the crypto market may be in a bear market after topping last October. Bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 earlier this week, suffering its largest daily decline since the FTX collapse. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also opined that Bitcoin is in a bear market, predicting that it could still drop to as low as $42,000 before it sees a bottom.  Reason For The Recent BTC Crash BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has commented on the reason for this recent Bitcoin crash, suggesting that it was due to external factors rather than part of an ongoing bear market. In an X post, he stated that the BTC price dump was probably due to a dealer hedging off the back of BlackRock’s BTC ETF structured products. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a record trading volume of $10 billion on the day of this crash to $60,000.  Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 Hayes’ comment comes on the back of Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000, with the flagship crypto recording one of its largest ever daily gains yesterday following the crash to $60,000. Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, suggested that the drop to $60,000 may mark the bottom for the BTC price. This came as he noted that the 200-week MA, which is around $60,000, has historically been a strong entry point for long-term investors.  At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $70,000, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity.  According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply.  These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps.  None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement.  Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products.  One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product.  While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens.  This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases.  According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard.  Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades.  Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain.  What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility. Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital. Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point. Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide. Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly. The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure after losing the $70K region, a level that had previously acted as both psychological and technical support. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, with price briefly touching the $60K zone before stabilizing near $65.9K. This move confirms a breakdown from the prior consolidation range and shifts focus toward whether this decline represents a deeper bear phase or a late-cycle correction. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K–$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide.  Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset.  The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually.  However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it.  He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets.  Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity.  Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash.  If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com