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On-chain data shows the key Bitcoin investors have been distributing recently, with their supply share dropping to the lowest level in months. Large Holder Demand For Bitcoin Has Remained Weak Recently In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the Bitcoin investor behavior has compared between the top and low ends of the market. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Hits 5-Week High—BTC, ETH Mood Still Off The analytics firm has chosen these wallet ranges to represent the two sides: 0 to 0.01 BTC and 10 to 10,000 BTC. The former includes the smallest of retail investors, while the latter includes key investor cohorts like the sharks and whales. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply held by each cohort. As is visible in the graph, the 0 to 0.01 BTC cohort has been expanding its supply since the October price peak. Bitcoin has witnessed a deep drawdown inside this window, but the data would imply that it hasn’t held back retail traders from accumulating. In total, this accumulation has expanded the holdings of these small hands by 2.5%, taking their percentage supply share to the highest level since June 2024. While retail has been buying, the sharks and whales have shown a different trajectory. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 10 to 10,000 BTC holders sold alongside the market drawdown between October and December. In January, these investors participated in some buying, which interestingly coincided with a drop in retail holdings. Then, the drawdown toward the end of the month again kicked off a selloff from the key investors. This selloff was steep, in fact sharper than any part of Q4 2025’s distribution phase. Recently, even as Bitcoin has made some recovery from its $60,000 low and found some stability, the big-money investors haven’t shown any return of bullish conviction. Compared to the October peak, the supply of the 10 to 10,000 BTC holders is now down 0.8%, which has taken the network share of this group to the lowest since May 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next? The analytics firm explained: Optimally, we begin to see these two Bitcoin groups begin to reverse course. Without key stakeholder support, any spark of a rally will tend to be slightly limited due to the lack of large capital. In another X post, Santiment has also discussed the behavior of the mid-tier Bitcoin holders, occupying the space between retail and large investors. As displayed in the chart, the 0.01 to 1 BTC wallets have seen their combined Bitcoin supply hit a 15-month high following a 1.05% increase since October. Meanwhile, the 1 to 10 BTC hands have reduced their holdings by 0.49% in the same period. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,400, up 0.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

The industry’s largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), are enduring one of their most difficult openings to a year on record, according to a recent analysis by Fortune, with both digital assets trading sharply below their previous peaks. Bitcoin is currently down roughly 46% from its all-time high, while Ethereum has fallen about 60% from its record level. The steep declines mark what the publication describes as historically poor year-to-date performances for the assets.  Bitcoin, Ethereum Lag While S&P 500, Gold Post Gains While Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with broader crypto prices, have often moved in tandem with equities in recent years, that relationship has weakened over the past two months. Since January, major US stock indices have edged higher.  The S&P 500 has gained approximately 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 2.3%. Precious metals have also performed strongly. Gold has surged about 17% since the start of the year, while silver has advanced roughly 14%, even after experiencing a brief drop several weeks ago. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown The disconnect between cryptocurrencies and broader market gains has prompted some industry observers to declare the arrival of another “Crypto Winter.”  “We’re certainly in a Crypto Winter,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at crypto asset manager Bitwise. He pointed to investor behavior as evidence of deteriorating sentiment. “You can tell by how investors react to good news,” Nelson said. “They don’t.” ‘We’re Really Close To The End’ Despite the current pullback and the increased challenges for prices seen since the October 10 liquidation event, Nelson argues that the underlying foundation of the industry is strengthening.  “Crypto’s reality is getting stronger,” he said, adding that the structural changes underway are likely to outlast the current downturn.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture Similar sentiments have been expressed by Tom Lee, cofounder of research firm Fundstrat and a long-time supporter of Ethereum. In a recent interview, Lee suggested the market may be nearing a turning point, stating, “We’re really close to the end.” Whether the latest slump proves to be a temporary correction or a deeper cycle shift remains uncertain. For now, however, the data underscores a challenging start to the year for the cryptocurrency market, even as other asset classes continue to surge. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,595, which is a slight 1% increase compared to Thursday’s prices. Ethereum is trading at around $1,968, with similar gains over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $69,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term market structure. After multiple failed attempts to establish acceptance above this key psychological threshold, price action reflects a defensive environment marked by reduced risk appetite and elevated volatility. Traders remain cautious, with liquidity conditions tightening and momentum favoring sellers rather than sustained accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks the Final Whale Floor In A 2018-Style Capitulation: What To Expect New on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn adds another layer to the current landscape. According to his insights, Bitcoin whales are firmly dominating the market structure at this stage of the cycle. Over the past 30 days alone, approximately $8.24 billion worth of whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance, marking the highest level of large-holder inflows to the exchange in the last 14 months. Such a concentration of activity suggests that major participants are actively repositioning. The data also underscores Binance’s continued role as the primary liquidity venue for large-scale transactions. When whale flows accelerate toward exchanges at this magnitude, it often signals heightened strategic activity — whether for distribution, hedging, or tactical allocation. As Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the behavior of these dominant market participants may play a decisive role in shaping the next directional move. Whale Dominance Intensifies As Retail Momentum Cools Maartunn further detailed the 30-day flow breakdown, offering a clearer view of how market participation is evolving. Over the past month, whale inflows to Binance have reached $8.24 billion and continue to trend higher. In comparison, retail inflows total approximately $11.91 billion but have begun to flatten. As a result, the retail-to-whale ratio currently stands at 1.45 and is steadily compressing. Although retail participation remains visible, its momentum is cooling. The pace of smaller deposits has slowed, suggesting declining conviction or reduced speculative activity among short-term traders. In contrast, whale deposits have increased consistently over the same period, indicating that larger entities are either actively positioning or reallocating capital with greater urgency. This dynamic is narrowing the gap between large and small participants on the exchange. When whale flows accelerate while retail flows plateau, market structure tends to become more top-heavy, with price increasingly influenced by institutional-scale actors rather than fragmented retail activity. The key takeaway is clear: large players are becoming more dominant on Binance, while smaller participants are gradually losing relative influence. In the current environment, Bitcoin’s next directional move may depend more heavily on whale strategy than retail sentiment. Related Reading: The 200 Million XRP Exodus: Investors Swap Speculation For Private Custody Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects a decisive loss of momentum following the rejection near the $120,000 region in late 2025. Since that peak, price structure has transitioned into a clear corrective phase characterized by lower highs and accelerating downside pressure. The most recent leg lower shows a sharp breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone, with BTC now hovering around the $68,000 area. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the shorter-term moving average, which has rolled over and is sloping downward, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. The intermediate moving average is flattening and beginning to turn lower, signaling weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the long-term average remains upward sloping but sits well below current price levels, suggesting that while the macro structure has not fully collapsed, the market is in a transitional phase. Related Reading: The Altcoin Exodus: Trading Volumes Halve As Capital Flees To Bitcoin $65,000 Fortress Volume expanded noticeably during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a passive drift lower. However, the latest candles show some stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 support region, an area that previously acted as a breakout zone earlier in the cycle. A sustained reclaim of the $75,000–$80,000 range would be required to restore bullish structure. Failure to hold current levels could expose deeper retracement toward long-term trend support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Michael Saylor kept buying while the market slid, and he did it out loud: “Neven been more bullish,” he said in an X post Thursday. His public posts and regulatory filings show Strategy continued to add to its Bitcoin pile even as price swings turned paper gains into big unrealized losses. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts The firm’s recent regulatory filing confirms a fresh purchase this month, while market reports and accounting disclosures show the wider hit to corporate treasuries. Market Value Drop Shakes Portfolios Bitcoin has shed roughly $1.2 trillion of market value since October 2025, and the wider crypto market has lost about $2 trillion in the same stretch. Prices that once pushed Bitcoin past $126,000 have fallen back toward the mid-$60,000s. That scale of decline has pushed several companies that used Bitcoin as a treasury asset into heavy mark-to-market losses, changing how investors view corporate crypto exposure. Never Been More ₿ullish. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 19, 2026 Strategy Keeps Buying According to the company’s own filings, Strategy acquired 2,486 BTC for roughly $168 million during mid-February, bringing its holdings above 700k coins. The buy was announced in a Form 8-K and has been picked up across market outlets. At the same time, accounting rules that require unrealized gains and losses to be reflected in reports mean the firm’s quarterly statements showed multibillion-dollar swings tied to Bitcoin’s price. That reality has put Strategy on the front lines of the debate over holding large crypto positions on balance sheets. Price Action And Headlines Moved Markets Bitcoin’s trading has been choppy. Headlines tied to geopolitics and macro policy moved traders, and low-volume sessions made swings feel bigger. ETF outflows and a string of liquidations amplified the slide. Still, there were moments when buyers stepped in and pushed prices up briefly; those countermoves have been picked over by analysts hunting for a bottom. Image: Wall Street Pit Bullish Voices, Loud And Public Eric Trump — speaking at an event at Mar-a-Lago — made a very bullish prediction that was reposted and amplified, and that kind of public optimism appears to have rubbed off on other high-profile backers. Go bitcoin today. The money won’t fix itself. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 13, 2026 Saylor reposted and echoed similar buy-the-dip messages, urging accumulation even as skeptics warned about the risks. At times political headlines tied to US President Donald Trump and related policy moves were singled out as part of the story behind the 2025 rally that preceded this correction. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill Saylor’s latest comment shows he remains firmly confident in Bitcoin. Despite huge losses, he sees dips as buying chances and urges others to stay bullish, keeping his long-term conviction front and center. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price action has taken a grim tone this month as trading rolls toward what may become a fifth straight red monthly candle. According to CoinGlass, BTC is down roughly 15% this month after closing the previous four months lower, a run not seen since 2018. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill Reports note that similar multimonth selloffs in the past were sometimes followed by sudden, strong rebounds, but those outcomes were not automatic. Traders are watching support near recent lows while sentiment indicators show rising caution among both retail and institutional players. Historical Streaks And Reversals Reports from Milk Road point to a striking example: after a long losing streak in 2018/19, the market produced large gains in the months that followed. That episode is often referenced by bulls who argue that compressed prices can set the stage for big percentage moves to the upside. Yet context matters. Market cycles are messy, and raw percentage comparisons skip over differences in liquidity, participant mix, and macro settings.  Source: CoinGlass Weekly And Quarterly Signals Weekly charts are shouting caution in some corners. Analyst Solana Sensei highlighted a run of red weekly candles that echoes parts of 2022, when extended selling drove BTC to the mid-$20,000s. At the same time, quarterly data from the 2022 drawdown shows losses can stack up for long stretches, and those patterns were painful for holders who expected quick turns. Some analysts have argued that the current cycle looks different because the monthly RSI never saw the same overbought expansion that preceded some prior bear phases; their view suggests rebounds might not follow the old script. $BTC is looking to log its 5th red month. Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months. Silver lining: it led to a reversal w/ 316% returns over the following 5 months. If history repeats – the reversal begins April 1st. Bookmark this. pic.twitter.com/IZwmdg0peV — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 18, 2026 Bitcoin Price Action The top crypto’s price movement has been mixed: thin sessions, sharp swings on headlines, muted volume between moves. The market has been both brittle and occasionally steady, depending on who is trading and where liquidity pools sit. Geopolitics And Market Mood Geopolitical flareups have acted as a volatility amplifier, and traders are pricing in headline risk more readily than before. Events tied to policies or public comments have dented confidence across risk assets. Related Reading: CEO Confirms Bitcoin Exposure, Says Bank Is Still Navigating US policy shifts and high-profile political statements — including ones linked to US President Donald Trump — are being watched for any spillover into dollar flows and investor risk tolerance. Thin market conditions can turn small news into big moves. That’s exactly what’s been happening on occasion over the last few weeks. Based on reports and the mix of indicators, a rebound in March or April is possible, but it cannot be counted on. Some traders will prepare for a quick bounce; others will keep dry powder and wait for clearer confirmation. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s slide into the $60,000–$70,000 zone has lit up the usual “bottom” dashboards: extreme fear, washed-out positioning, and a cluster of indicators many traders treat as capitulation signals. But CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet says the market is missing the only thing that ultimately matters: a visible bid from dominant buyers. “What I emphasized in the $80K–$90K range still remains the same,” he wrote on Feb. 18. “Many indicators that market participants follow are pointing to a bottom and extreme fear. However, we do not see dominant players (whales) actually using this situation.” Mignolet’s core argument is simple: a bottom is not a sentiment reading, it’s an event and he doesn’t see the kind of forced absorption that typically marks a durable turn. “No matter how many indicators suggest a bottom, if there is no real buying force stepping in, we cannot know where the true bottom will be,” he said. “That is why I do not make price predictions lightly.” Related Reading: Revealed: The Biggest Bitcoin Holders Of 2026, According To Arkham Data He contrasted the current tape with the 2024 bull cycle, when fear could still dominate headlines even as large allocators quietly took the other side. In that period, he argues, the market had a measurable backstop: institutional demand showing up through US spot Bitcoin ETFs, specifically BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, which “clearly absorbed the selling pressure.” The “most important point,” in his framing, is that the same mechanics aren’t showing up now. Mignolet says the accumulation pattern FBTC sustained for roughly a year has “already broken down,” and IBIT, previously described as a buffer during heavy sell pressure, is “now trending downward, unlike last year.” That shift is why he keeps the bottom call “on ice,” even if price ultimately holds the current region. In his view, Bitcoin remains in a phase where traders should “be cautious about further shocks,” and even a successful defense would likely require time before it can be treated as confirmed. When Everyone Reads The Same Bitcoin Data Beyond flow, Mignolet is also warning about a structural change in how market narratives form. He argues the proliferation of on-chain analytics has made the space more information-dense, but not necessarily more insightful and in some cases, more hazardous. Related Reading: Bitcoin Doesn’t Get A Macro ‘Bailout’ This Time: Alden Warns Of Gradual QE “The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches similar conclusions,” he wrote. “In many cases, even the people producing the data do not fully understand it. When information becomes too common, it pushes expectations in one direction.” He describes today’s well-packaged on-chain dashboards as “clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet,” which can harden conviction precisely when flexibility is required. The downstream risk, he suggests, is that widespread agreement around “obvious” bottoms can keep investors anchored through deeper drawdowns or longer grind periods. In the near term, Mignolet’s base case is not a clean trend reversal but “sideways movement without a clear direction,” with enough volatility to create opportunities for short-term traders. For his own positioning, he described the period as “waiting,” stepping back to watch “liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment,” then “reset” his framework. The bigger picture, he says, is still bearish and potentially more drawn out than he expected last year. His closing warning is that this down cycle is “unlikely to end lightly,” with the plausible outcomes being a larger-than-expected drop, a longer-than-expected sideways phase, or both. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,889. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the social media sentiment toward XRP has surged to a 5-week high even as mood around Bitcoin and Ethereum remains dull. XRP Positive/Negative Sentiment Has Shot Up Recently In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum currently compare in terms of the Positive/Negative Sentiment. This indicator tells us about whether an asset is observing more bullish or bearish comments on the major social media platforms. The metric works by filtering social media posts/threads/messages for terms related to the cryptocurrency and putting them through a machine-learning model that separates between positive and negative sentiments. It then counts up the number of posts in each category and determines the ratio between them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next? When the value of the Positive/Negative Sentiment is greater than 1, it means bullish comments outnumber the bearish ones. On the other hand, the indicator being under this level could indicate the dominance of a negative sentiment among social media users. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for three top cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum. As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both seen the Positive/Negative Sentiment decline to near-neutral levels recently. Bullish and bearish comments are almost exactly canceling out for the former with the metric sitting at 1.05, while the latter is seeing a slight dominance of positive sentiment with a value of 1.4. The analytics firm noted: Crypto markets have struggled to maintain momentum, and social data indicates there are far less bullish comments toward Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to last week. Meanwhile, the indicator has taken a completely different route for XRP. From the chart, it’s visible that the Positive/Negative Sentiment has recently witnessed a sharp rise for the digital asset ranked fourth by market cap. XRP has also struggled like the rest of the market recently, so what’s behind the divergence? According to Santiment, it’s likely to lie in the recent partnership expansion announcements. The wave of bullish comments over the last couple of days has pushed the Positive/Negative Sentiment to 2.35, the highest level in five weeks. If past pattern is to go by, though, this excitement around the asset may not necessarily translate to the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Momentum Losing Steam? Analyst Flags Key Metric Generally, digital asset markets tend to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. In that view, Bitcoin and Ethereum with their relatively dull sentiments may be better positioned for a rebound than XRP. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.39, up around 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Reports say Goldman Sachs now holds a mix of crypto exposures that go beyond Bitcoin alone. Its chief executive, David Solomon, told an audience he owns a very small amount of Bitcoin while he watches how the market behaves. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill That personal detail grabbed attention after investor Grant Cardone amplified the comment on social media, and it added another layer to what appears to be a deliberate, measured shift inside the firm. Token Holdings And Paper Losses Based on filings, Goldman Sach’s positions are spread across several major tokens. The firm shows exposure to about 13,740 Bitcoin held through US-listed spot ETFs, a stake worth roughly $920 million after a recent price slide. Ethereum accounts for about $1 billion of exposure. Smaller stakes in XRP and Solana come in at about $153 million and $108 million, respectively. David Solomon @GoldmanSachs just said at World Liberty Forum, “I’m still trying to figure out how Bitcoin behaves. I own a little bitcoin, very little.”@MarALago @worldlibertyfi pic.twitter.com/iepTMeE6lL — Grant Cardone (@GrantCardone) February 18, 2026 Altogether, crypto-linked ETF holdings add up to roughly $2.36 billion, according to the disclosure. These numbers mean the bank is carrying unrealized losses on some positions since prices fell sharply. Yet the holdings remain, which suggests an institutional view that does not chase every short-term move. Some of those choices were made after new spot ETF options launched for certain tokens, pushing the bank to broaden its lineup beyond Bitcoin and Ether. Exploring What Works Reports note that Goldman has also been quietly building out teams focused on tokenization, stablecoins, and other blockchain-based tools. Work on prediction markets and experiments with putting tokenized assets into parts of the balance sheet has been underway. Employees are testing ways these technologies might fit into existing services rather than upending them. The CEO’s phrasing was cautious. He said his firm is evaluating how these systems could be folded into core operations where they make sense, rather than rushing in just to be first. “I’m still trying to figure out how Bitcoin behaves. I own a little bitcoin, very little,” Solomon said. That tone lines up with a strategy of measured adoption — try, test, and integrate only when the fit is clear. A Public Signal With Private Limits World Liberty Forum provided the stage where Solomon shared his remarks, and the public nature of the comment matters. High-level executives admitting any personal crypto holdings is still newsworthy. It signals interest but not a full personal endorsement; he emphasized that his stake is small and that he remains in observation mode. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Powerful Rally Signal Is Back — Is History About To Repeat? Regulatory And Market Context The disclosure also comes as lawmakers and regulators continue to shape rules that could affect how banks use crypto tools. Clearer rules in Washington could accelerate practical uses, or at least make trial programs easier to run. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Michael Saylor keeps things upbeat. He told a TV interviewer that the current Bitcoin dip feels milder than past crashes and that a quicker rebound is likely. He even said, “Spring is coming, and Bitcoin is winning.” Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Reaches Historic Levels, Price Hovers Near $2K Bitcoin Institutional Support Strengthens Outlook According to Saylor, a big reason for his confidence is that banks and big firms are far more involved than they were a few years ago. Reports note fresh banking tools and credit networks aimed at crypto are drawing new capital in. US President Donald Trump was mentioned by the Strategy big boss as a political force friendly to Bitcoin — a line that will be picked over by both supporters and critics. We may be in the middle of a crypto winter, but spring is coming — and Bitcoin is winning. pic.twitter.com/jxvzK3XwSN — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 17, 2026 Strategy’s Holdings And Price Math Strategy holds 714,644 BTC on its books, bought at an average near $76,056 each. At the moment, Bitcoin trades around $67,900. That gap matters. The roughly $49 billion value sitting in the vault is compared to a company market value that trades around $42.80 billion. Those raw numbers give weight to Saylor’s claim that the company can handle big swings. He went further, saying that even a fall to $8,000 would leave the holdings enough to cover outstanding debt. That is a strong statement. It was presented as reassurance to investors. Strategy’s Position And Risk Calculations Reports say Strategy plans to swap its convertible debt into stock within three to six years. The firm has also signaled it will buy more Bitcoin each quarter. How these moves play out depends on markets, financing terms, and timing. Some analysts think the company’s approach lowers short-term pressure on the share price. Others point out that keeping such a large crypto stash concentrates risk in volatile markets. Past Cycles Saylor compared the current episode to deeper downturns that came before. That comparison is useful but needs numbers to be fully judged. Historical drops in crypto have been steep at times, which is why claims of a milder slump invite scrutiny. Other investors look at on-chain flows, macro cash conditions, and bank behavior to decide whether this time is different. Right now, evidence of a fast, broad institutional inflow is mixed. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking Outlook And What Could Shift The Story Markets could swing on a few catalysts: changes in lending policy, moves by large funds, or fresh regulatory signals from US authorities. News or shocks could tilt sentiment quickly. Some market watchers look at 10-year trendlines for context, while others focus on shorter trading indicators. Either way, Saylor’s optimism is clearly tied to a long view and a confident read of current market structure. Featured image from Long Island Weight Loss Institute, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price corrected gains and tested the $65,650 zone. BTC is now consolidating losses and might start a decent increase if it settles above $68,000. Bitcoin is struggling to recover losses and moving lower below $67,500. The price is trading below $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $67,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Tough Challenge Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $67,500 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $67,200 support zone. There was a push below $67,000. The price even spiked below $66,800. A low was formed at $65,650, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,418 swing high to the $65,650 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $66,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,400 level. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $67,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,418 swing high to the $65,650 low. The first key resistance is near the $68,000 level. A close above the $68,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $69,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,000 and $70,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $66,000 level. The first major support is near the $65,650 level. The next support is now near the $65,050 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,800, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,650. Major Resistance Levels – $67,400 and $68,000.

Bitcoin’s price action is struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands, Bitcoin is now moving in a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are undecided on its next direction. Some see the current structure as a base for another push higher, but others warn that any bounce could invite new selling. Crypto analyst Sherlock is among the cautious voices, arguing on X that a rally to between $72,000 and $76,000 may not be a recovery but a kill zone for Bitcoin bulls. The $76,000 Breakeven Wall Crypto analyst Sherlock is of the notion that any Bitcoin price recovery to $76,000 from here might not actually be a good thing. Sherlock’s argument is based on the Bitcoin holdings of Strategy. At the time of writing, the company holds 714,644 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,052. That stash represents roughly 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist.  Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance Now that Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, Strategy’s position is significantly underwater, and the company is sitting at an estimated unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion at current prices. In the analyst’s view, every push to the $74,000 to $76,000 range brings this large concentration of supply closer to breakeven. Breakeven levels often act as selling zones. Based on that perspective, the $76,000 area could be risky because it brings Strategy’s position back to its average entry price, and many large holders might consider reducing exposure. That said, there is no indication that Strategy plans to sell. The company has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of offloading its Bitcoin and has even emphasized that its balance sheet could withstand a severe downturn, including a scenario where the Bitcoin price drops below $10,000. ETF Pressure And Bitcoin Cost Basis Sherlock also pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETFs as another source of pressure that might lead to a bull trap. As it stands, about 1.28 million BTC are currently held in these funds, with an estimated average entry price between $84,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Could A Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000 Wipe Out Strategy? Saylor Shares What To Expect Since late 2025, these ETFs have recorded more than $6 billion in net outflows, and the Bitcoin price might face another pressure even if it reaches the average entry price. He also noted that about 63% of invested Bitcoin wealth has a cost basis above $88,000, meaning a large share of buyers in 2025 are sitting on losses, and a rally to their entry levels could also be a bull trap. Therefore, a climb into the $72,000 to $76,000 range could be a bull trap. If it doesn’t, then the next trap could be around $88,000. That said, if every breakeven level triggered selling, then Bitcoin might never form a bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,980. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin’s recent pullback may look concerning on the surface, but according to Brian Armstrong, the move has more to do with the market psychology than with any deterioration in fundamentals. After a period of strong performance, shifting sentiment and broader market uncertainty are playing a larger role in BTC’s price movement than structural weaknesses within the network or its long-term value proposition. Why Bitcoin’s Core Strengths Remain Intact A crypto expert known as Walter Bloomberg on X has revealed that the Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin’s recent slide is temporary and is driven primarily by market psychology rather than weakening fundamentals.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound Speaking to the Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) at the World Liberty Forum in Florida, Armstrong pushed back against the speculation linking the decline to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership changes or emerging risks such as quantum computing. Instead, Armstrong explained that the move reflects investors locking in profits and reacting to what they believe others are thinking. He described the downturn as likely temporary, noting that Coinbase is repurchasing shares and buying more BTC at a lower price. Armstrong emphasized that crypto market cycles are normal, reiterating that BTC remains the best-performing asset of the past decade and that the company continues to focus on long-term growth. Is This The Early Stage Of Another Supply Shock? Bitcoin whales have accumulated more than 200,000 BTC despite the ongoing selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost highlighted that while whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow. Thus, inflows typically reflect short-term behaviour and can generate immediate selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows The chart below provides a medium-term perspective by tracking the evolution of the whale-held supply on a monthly average basis. After a sharp drop in this average to nearly -7% on December 15, whale behaviour appears to have shifted over the past month, with their holdings increasing by 3.4%. During this period, the BTC supply by whales grew from 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of more than 200,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the last time whale accumulation of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 market correction. At that time, this wave of accumulation had helped absorb selling pressure and supported the rally that pushed BTC from $76,000 to $126,000. However, with BTC still consolidating around 46% below its recent all-time high, the current level may be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. Darkfost noted that it is not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity. As selling pressure remains significant, this whale demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully counterbalance the broader market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Economist and longtime Bitcoin (BTC) critic Peter Schiff has issued a fresh warning to cryptocurrency investors, arguing that the world’s largest digital asset could face a steep decline if a key price level fails. Schiff Predicts 84% Bitcoin Crash  In a Thursday social media post on X, Schiff said that a break below $50,000 would likely open the door to a much deeper selloff. “If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K,” he wrote.  Related Reading: Revealed: The Biggest Bitcoin Holders Of 2026, According To Arkham Data A drop to that level, he noted, would represent an 84% fall from Bitcoin’s all‑time high of $126,000 reached last October. While acknowledging that Bitcoin has experienced similar collapses in the past, Schiff argued that the current environment is different.  He pointed to what he described as unprecedented hype, higher leverage in the system, greater institutional ownership and a much larger overall market capitalization. “Sell Bitcoin now!” he urged. BTC ‘Not Fit’ As Reserve Asset Schiff, who has long championed gold as a superior store of value, has repeatedly questioned Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system.  In a previous interview, he said BTC is unsuitable as a reserve asset for central banks, contending that its volatility would make it impractical to hold in large quantities without causing market instability.  Related Reading: Goldman Sachs CEO Says US Must Codify How Crypto ‘Will Operate’ According to Schiff, although some sovereign wealth funds and governments have taken limited positions in Bitcoin‑related products, those allocations remain small and are often motivated by performance pressure rather than deep conviction. He has also expressed skepticism about the durability of institutional demand. Schiff predicted that professional investors’ interest in Bitcoin could wane over time and warned that more recent entrants to the market may ultimately suffer losses if prices retreat sharply. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $66,900, with the largest resistance level at $70,000 and support floors at $65,800 and $62,800, limiting additional losses in the near term.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, American Bitcoin Corp now holds 6,039 BTC, placing the firm among the top 20 public corporate Bitcoin treasuries in the world. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation That number is big on its face. It also carries more questions than answers for anyone who follows both crypto and small-cap stocks. Fast Accumulation Through Mining And Purchases Reports note the company has been piling on coins by keeping what it mines and by buying on the open market. Blockchain trackers and industry write-ups say roughly 217 BTC were added over the course of January alone, a fast clip for a company that listed barely six months ago. Today we reached an incredible milestone for American Bitcoin — Crossing 6,000 BTC in under 6 months since our Nasdaq debut! Today is a testament to @ABTC execution which has build one of the fastest-growing Public Bitcoin reserves in the world, outpacing many established… pic.twitter.com/JNjYZfeajL — Eric Trump (@EricTrump) February 17, 2026 Eric Trump Celebrates Eric Trump broadcast the milestone on social media, framing it as proof the plan works and that the treasury build was rapid and deliberate. The message landed with fans. The rest of the market has been less kind. Shares have tumbled hard since the Nasdaq debut, with multiple reports showing equity losses in the area of 80% from early highs. A stock that drops this far while its balance sheet grows makes clear that ownership of Bitcoin alone has not calmed investor nerves. JUST IN: Trump family-backed #Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin Corp $ABTC increased its holdings by 196 BTC and now holds a total of 6,039 BTC. ????Bitcoin 100 Ranking: 17???? pic.twitter.com/ydp2wbN1Xn — BitcoinTreasuries.NET (@BTCtreasuries) February 17, 2026 How The Rank Compares To Others The firm now sits ahead of household names on the list, including GameStop and Gemini Space Station Inc in raw BTC held. That comparison grabs headlines. It also masks the difference between a company that treats Bitcoin as a treasury reserve versus firms that hold BTC as one of many assets. Political Branding Cuts Through The Noise The venture carries a clear political stamp, with ties to the family of US President Donald Trump. That connection brings attention and capital at times, and it draws scrutiny at others. For investors who prefer to keep politics off their balance sheets, the association will affect sentiment just as surely as quarterly numbers do. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Top $500,000 By 2029? Entrepreneur Makes Bold Call Reports say analysts have mixed views: some see a bet on Bitcoin’s next leg higher, others point to governance, execution risk, and thin market float. A firm that refuses to sell mined coins essentially doubles down on the coin’s future price. That can be wildly profitable in a rally. It can be brutal in a drawdown. The math is plain — holding inventory exposes the company to the same swings retail holders face, but with public shares amplifying the effects. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Markets blinked hard this week. According to Checkonchain, a measure tied to recent Bitcoin buyers has dropped into extreme territory not seen since the late 2018 slump. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill That metric compares where new buyers paid against price swings, and right now those who bought inside the last 155 days sit well below break-even on average. That creates stress. It can also mark a low if other pieces line up. Short-Term Holder Signal Flashes Again Reports say the Short-Term Holder Bollinger Band reading has pierced its lower band, a statistical cue that recent buyers are unusually underwater. In past cycles that kind of print arrived near major lows — a deep wash-out when selling activity peaked and then buying began to reclaim value. Realized losses among large short-term wallets have not exploded yet, which, based on reports from MatrixPort, hints that heavy hitters may be holding through the pullback rather than throwing in the towel. Reports note that a similar signal appeared before Bitcoin’s historic 1,900% rally from the late 2018 bottom to 2021. While past performance does not guarantee the same outcome, the comparison highlights how extreme stress among short-term holders has previously aligned with major long-term gains. ????Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart – February 17, 2026 ⬇️ Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Extreme Lows ⁰— Durable Bottom Are Emerging? #Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed #RiskManagement #Volatility #CryptoResearch pic.twitter.com/WxJg3xrHSf — Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 17, 2026 Price Action And Market Moves Price behavior has been messy. Bitcoin slipped under $67,000–$70,000 as risk-off flows hit markets. Traders point to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the broader pull in risk assets as key drivers of the move. Reports say a note picked up by a popular media and TV firm relayed a Wells Fargo view that a seasonal surge in US tax refunds — the bank’s strategist described a sizable liquidity window — could re-route fresh cash toward risk bets, possibly supporting a rebound by the end of March. Bitcoin STH Bollingers most oversold in 8 years pic.twitter.com/tHyBv3V1Ge — Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) February 17, 2026 What History Can And Cannot Tell Us Looking back offers both comfort and caution. The oversold alarm flashed before a big rally after 2018, and a similar signal showed up ahead of the November 2022 trough that later produced a steep recovery. Reports note those moves unfolded against very different backdrops — money supply conditions, interest rates, and institutional involvement were not the same then as they are now. This time there are ETFs, more derivatives, and a tighter policy regime in some parts of the world. Past wins do not automatically repeat, but patterns can still guide risk-aware decisions. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation Where This Leaves Traders And Longer-Term Holders Short-term pain may still come. Volatility can remain high while markets reconcile macro news and geopolitical shocks. Yet the stretched readings among recent buyers do improve the odds that a better buying window is near for anyone with a multi-year horizon. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Quantum computing has become the latest all-purpose explanation for Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, but NYDIG says the numbers don’t back the narrative. In a Feb. 17 research note, NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro argues that “quantum fears” are loud, but not a primary driver of the sell-off when you look at search behavior, cross-asset correlations, and broader risk positioning. Quantum Panic Didn’t Sink Bitcoin NYDIG frames “Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers” as the theoretical endgame risk investors keep circling. The problem is that market behavior doesn’t look like a repricing of an imminent existential threat. First, Cipolaro points to Google Trends. Search interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” did rise, he wrote, but the timing matters. “Search interest for ‘quantum computing bitcoin’ has risen, but notably this occurred alongside bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs, not ahead of sustained weakness,” the note said. “In other words, heightened searches about quantum risk coincided with price strength rather than weakness. If the market were repricing bitcoin on an imminent technological threat, we would expect search intensity to lead or amplify downside risk, not accompany a period of gains.” Related Reading: Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained Second, NYDIG looks at how Bitcoin traded versus publicly listed quantum computing equities, specifically IONQ, QBTS, RGTI, and QUBT. If investors were rotating out of Bitcoin because quantum advances were “catching up,” you would expect quantum-linked stocks to diverge positively as Bitcoin falls. NYDIG says it saw the opposite. Bitcoin was positively correlated with those equities, and those correlations strengthened during the drawdown, suggesting a shared driver rather than a direct quantum-to-Bitcoin causality. NYDIG’s conclusion is blunt on that point. “The data provides no evidence that quantum computing is the proximate cause of bitcoin’s weakness, even if it is the dominant risk narrative at the moment,” Cipolaro wrote. “The more plausible explanation is a broader macro repricing of risk across long-duration, expectation-driven assets. Bitcoin’s recent drawdown appears more consistent with shifts in overall risk appetite than with any discrete technological catalyst.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Momentum Losing Steam? Analyst Flags Key Metric The mechanism NYDIG highlights is familiar to anyone watching liquidity regimes. Quantum computing firms, it argues, are long-duration, expectation-driven assets with minimal revenues and high EV/revenue multiples. Bitcoin, while structurally different, often trades as a long-duration bet on future adoption and monetary dynamics. When risk appetite contracts, both can get hit together. Meanwhile, NYDIG flags a divergence in derivatives markets that, in its view, better captures the current tape than quantum headlines. The 1-month annualized basis on CME has “persistently traded above” Deribit, which NYDIG uses as a proxy for onshore US institutional positioning versus offshore positioning. Structurally higher CME basis implies US desks have remained more constructive, while the sharper decline in Deribit’s 1-month basis points to rising caution offshore and reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,886. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics platform Arkham has released a new report identifying the largest known Bitcoin (BTC) holders at the start of 2026, offering a detailed snapshot of how the cryptocurrency is distributed across individuals, corporations, governments, and financial institutions. Top Bitcoin Holders Looking across major ownership categories, Arkham’s verified on‑chain data shows that the largest individual holder remains Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Nakamoto’s wallets contain 1,096,358 BTC, valued at approximately $75 billion, representing 5.5% of the total supply. Among cryptocurrency exchanges, Coinbase ranks first. The digital asset platform holds 993,069 BTC worth roughly $68 billion, accounting for about 5% of the circulating supply.  Related Reading: Macro Wobbles May Send Bitcoin Back To The $50,000s, Industry CEO Claims Binance, Robinhood, and Upbit also rank among the largest cryptocurrency exchange holders, with approximately 660,000 BTC, 184,000 BTC, and 180,000 BTC, respectively.  In the US sport Bitcoin exchange‑traded fund sector (ETF), BlackRock stands out as the largest ETF issuer by Bitcoin holdings, with 761,801 BTC valued at about $52 billion, equivalent to 3.8% of supply.  Asset manager and also crypto exchange-traded fund issuer Grayscale currently holds 218,000 BTC valued at around $20 billion, with all of its assets custodied by crypto exchange Coinbase. Strategy Leads Corporate BTC Race Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the largest public corporate holder. The company has accumulated Bitcoin steadily since August 2020, making purchases every few weeks.  Its total holdings now stand at 714,644 BTC, worth approximately $54.3 billion. Of that amount, 415,230 BTC are directly confirmed on‑chain, valued at $28 billion, representing 2.1% of supply, while the broader total equates to roughly 3.5%. Other public companies are also building significant reserves. MARA, a North American Bitcoin mining firm, operates nine mining facilities and averaged 22.7 BTC mined per day in September 2025.  Arkham data shows MARA controls 13,000 BTC on‑chain, valued at about $864 million, though the company reports a treasury reserve of 53,200 BTC.  The Biggest Private And Government Holders Private companies also command sizable Bitcoin positions. Tether leads this group with 96,369 BTC valued at $6.5 billion, representing 0.48% of total supply. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, holds 8,285 BTC, according to Arkham’s verified data.  Additionally, the Bitcoin Treasuries website lists Block.one as the largest private corporate holder with 164,000 BTC. However, Arkham notes that Block.one’s holdings cannot be independently verified on‑chain.  Related Reading: $274 Billion In Potential Bitcoin Selling Could Hit Markets, Expert Says Government holdings form another key category. Arkham’s data identifies the United States government as the largest verified state holder, with 328,372 BTC worth approximately $22 billion, representing 1.64% of the total supply.  The United Arab Emirates is also emerging as a major player. Arkham identified significant mining activity in the Gulf state, with 6,800 BTC attributed to operations conducted by Citadel, a public mining firm majority‑owned by the UAE Royal Group through International Holding Company (IHC). At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,299. It registered losses of 2% and 1.2% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. This has prevented the token from surpassing the nearest resistance wall at $70,000.   Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A cryptocurrency analyst has highlighted how Bitcoin has been trading inside a Triangle that could set up a 15% move for the asset. Bitcoin Is Potentially Consolidating Inside A Symmetrical Triangle In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a technical analysis (TA) pattern that Bitcoin has been trading inside recently. The pattern in question is a “Triangle,” which is a type of consolidation channel that, as its name suggests, has a triangular shape. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Momentum Losing Steam? Analyst Flags Key Metric The pattern is characterized by two converging trendlines. The lower of these is considered likely to be a point of support for the price, while the upper one that of resistance. A break out of either of these bounds can imply a continuation of trend in that direction. Triangles can be of a few different types based on the orientation of the trendlines with respect to each other and the graph axes. In an Ascending Triangle, the upper level is parallel to the time-axis. Similarly, the lower level being parallel creates a Descending Triangle. When both trendlines approach each other at a roughly equal and opposite slope, the pattern formed is known as a “Symmetrical Triangle.” The Triangle shared by Martinez that Bitcoin has been trading inside is the closest to this type. Below is a chart that shows the trajectory in cryptocurrency’s hourly price inside the pattern at the time of the post. As is visible in the graph, the 1-hour Bitcoin price found a bounce from the lower level of the triangular channel shortly before the post. Since then, however, BTC has seen some decline, which has taken it below the support line. This could be a potential indication that a breakout is occurring. In the post, Martinez had noted that the Triangle could set up a potential 15% move for the asset. This figure is based on the fact that Triangle breakouts are generally assumed to end up being of the same length as the height of the channel at the point where the trendlines are the furthest apart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Notably Weaker Than Nov 2025 Bounce: Glassnode If the latest price drop indeed reflects a break out of the pattern for Bitcoin, then this 15% move could possibly follow to the downside. Symmetrical Triangles tend to have an equal probability of a breakout occurring in either direction, since there is roughly an equal bias both up and down. This time, however, it would appear that the bearish direction might be the one in store for BTC. BTC Price Bitcoin has dropped to the $66,300 mark following its drop over the past day. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle to hold key price levels is raising fresh concerns across crypto markets, even as spot exchange-traded funds continue to control tens of billions of dollars in assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Gain If AI Job Losses Trigger Bank Stress, Hayes Says The largest cryptocurrency has fallen back below the psychologically important $70,000 mark, trading around $68,000 after weeks of steady selling pressure and weakening momentum. While institutional products still hold significant capital, analysts say the market structure shows growing downside risk rather than stability, with technical patterns, whale activity, and macroeconomic uncertainty all pointing to a fragile outlook. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Bearish Chart Signals and Whale Activity Intensify Pressure Technical indicators suggest the correction may not be finished. Market analysts highlight a developing “bear pennant” formation, a pattern that typically appears after sharp declines and often precedes another leg lower. A confirmed breakdown could push Bitcoin toward the $55,000–$60,000 range, representing roughly a 20% decline from current levels. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows rising inflows into exchanges from large holders. The ratio tracking major transactions moving onto trading platforms recently reached elevated levels, historically associated with increased sell-side pressure. Analysts interpret this as preparation for distribution rather than accumulation. Additional data suggests the market has entered a “stress phase,” with losses mounting among newer investors while long-term holders remain profitable. Similar setups in past cycles often preceded extended consolidation or deeper corrections before recovery. Bitcoin ETFs Remain Large, But Not Necessarily Bullish Despite price weakness, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold about $85 billion in assets, equivalent to more than 6% of the circulating supply. However, analysts caution that ETF resilience may not reflect strong bullish conviction. Research indicates a large portion of ETF ownership is dominated by market makers and arbitrage funds maintaining hedged positions rather than directional bets. Funds linked to asset managers such as BlackRock continue to see activity, but flows have recently turned negative, marking several consecutive weeks of net outflows. Institutional positioning is also shifting elsewhere. Filings show Harvard University reduced part of its Bitcoin ETF exposure late last year, highlighting a more cautious stance among some large investors. Macro Uncertainty And Sentiment Keep Markets On Edge Broader financial conditions are adding to pressure. Bitcoin has remained closely correlated with technology stocks and risk assets, both of which have reacted to expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Upcoming Federal Reserve signals and economic data releases are likely to shape the short-term direction. Sentiment indicators tracked by Matrixport show extreme fear dominating markets, a condition that sometimes precedes rebounds but can also accompany late-stage corrections. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls, But Robert Kiyosaki Says He’s ‘Excited’ And Buys More Meanwhile, corporate holders such as Strategy Inc continue accumulating Bitcoin despite volatility, underscoring a divide between long-term institutional conviction and short-term market weakness. Cover image from  ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart on Tradingview

Bitcoin investors hoping for a familiar macro rescue may be reading the room wrong. In an interview with Coin Stories host Nathalie Brunell, macro analyst Lyn Alden argued that the next policy turn is more likely to resemble a slow balance-sheet creep than the kind of “nuclear print” that has historically juiced risk assets, leaving bitcoin to compete largely on its own fundamentals and narrative pull. Alden framed the current cycle as unusually underwhelming, not just in price terms but in participation. She noted that sentiment “is worse than 2022,” and attributed the malaise to a missing retail bid, a lack of “alt season,” and a broader crypto market that “kind of run out of narratives.” Bitcoin, she said, topped out at $126,000, below her own bar for a satisfying cycle. “Sometimes they give their time frames so we can just see if it hits that time frame or not,” Alden said, pushing back on the reflexive call that every drawdown forces the Fed’s hand. “Every kind of down tick in stocks or every kind of down tick they say well the […] we’re going to have to print soon. But really the Fed only cares mainly about the liquidity of the treasury market and the interbank lending market […] even stocks going down 10, 20, 30% is not really going to be a catalyst.” Related Reading: Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained Brunell pointed to comments she said came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about “slowly” expanding the balance sheet, with purchases starting around $40 billion in short-end Treasury bills, far from the trillions some bitcoin bulls anchor on. Alden’s response was blunt: the plumbing doesn’t demand a shock-and-awe response right now. “Mainly because the conditions are not such that they would need a big print in the near future,” she said. “There are scenarios that can absolutely result in a big print or a nuclear print […] but when you kind of run the numbers of how much debt is coming out, how levered or unlevered banks are, they just don’t really need a lot of printing. A little printing gets them a long way.” In Alden’s telling, QE1-scale interventions were tied to a very specific setup: an overlevered banking system with low cash ratios and acute private-sector balance sheet stress. Today, she argued, bank cash ratios are “still pretty high,” and absent a COVID-scale disruption or an escalation in war or “financial war”, the base case is incrementalism. Bitcoin Still Has To Win Attention That matters because, in Alden’s framework, gradual balance-sheet expansion is supportive but not decisive for bitcoin. The era where “micro doesn’t matter at all” is reserved for true emergency stimulus and she doesn’t see that as the near-term setup. “Not a ton, I think,” Alden said when asked what gradual QE means for bitcoin. “It’s supportive […] but Bitcoin still has to compete on its own merits for investor attention. So, you know, basically it has to compete with Nvidia […] with everything out there that people can own.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Or Buy Zone? What On-Chain Data Shows Right Now She tied the muted cycle to “mediocre” topline demand and a capital-market landscape where AI-linked equities and even precious metals have offered competition for mindshare. Sovereigns “didn’t really show up,” she said, and retail largely stayed sidelined, leaving “the corporate institutional side” and higher-net-worth brokerage buyers, aided by ETFs, as the main marginal bid. Alden also downplayed the idea that derivatives and ETFs are the chief culprit behind a capped upside, even if they can “inflate” synthetic supply for a time. The bigger issue, she argued, is simply that the demand impulse hasn’t been strong enough to overwhelm a now-larger, more liquid market. Looking forward, Alden expects bottoms to form as “fast money gets out” and coins rotate to “strongly held hands,” with price more likely to grind than V-recover. On the upside, she pointed to a potential setup where AI trades eventually peak, bitcoin sits “cheap for a while” in tight hands, and only “a marginal amount of new demand” is needed to restart reflexivity, possibly alongside continued buying from bitcoin treasury companies. For now, her core warning is that this cycle may not be saved by policy theatrics. If bitcoin is going to reassert itself, Alden suggested, it will be less about waiting for a macro bailout and more about whether enough investors still want “self-custodial […] undebasable savings,” even when other assets are stealing the spotlight. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,556. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin sits on edge again, trading below the critical $68,000 level after a volatile stretch that erased around 28% from its price in about a month. Prices are swinging hard, and that swing has pushed smart-money talk and wild bets into the same room. Related Reading: Bitcoin Should Be Flying—Instead, Quantum Risk Keeps It Grounded: Analyst Experts Offer Starkly Different Paths According to some investors, a deep bargain is forming. Andrew Parish, a serial entrepreneur and outspoken Bitcoin proponent, argues that mood matters — when retail traders turn gloomy, big buyers can step in and lift markets fast. He put a bold target on the table: $500,000 within a few years if flows and sentiment flip. Ric Edelman, a veteran investor, has a similar headline number but with a slower clock; his math rests on broad wealth moving a tiny slice into crypto over time. Both views hinge on steady inflows and more investors taking small positions in crypto. GM. Bitcoin sub $70K is a gift. Buy more. In three years $BTC will trade above $500K. — Andrew (@AP_Abacus) February 16, 2026 A Bear Case That Cuts Deep On the other side, the warning is loud and clear. Bloomberg macro strategist Mike McGlone has painted a much darker path, saying an 85% drop could be possible and that $10,000 should not be dismissed. Legendary Investor Ric Edelman: “I believe #bitcoin can reach $500,000 by 2030.” ???? pic.twitter.com/XNQFTbuA69 — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) February 16, 2026 He points to stronger stock markets, lower market swings, and fading political tailwinds tied to US President Donald Trump as reasons capital might stay away from risky bets. Markets can be moved by big shifts in where money chooses to sit, and moments like this can put a damper on optimism quickly. Collapsing Bitcoin/Cryptos May Guide the Next Recession – “Healthy Correction” is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos. The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over, here’s why: – US stock… pic.twitter.com/fPPc2fV3EU — Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) February 15, 2026 Flows And Sentiment Matter Reports note that exchange-traded funds saw heavy withdrawals recently. On-chain readings flagged hundreds of millions in outflows in a short window. A separate fear-and-greed meter cratered to very low readings, signaling panic among small traders. Those two facts together help explain why price fell so sharply; when many try to leave, price can slip faster than logic expects. That said, outflows can also clear the way for a different type of buyer to move in later. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation On Institutional Behavior & Lofty Price Targets Meanwhile, institutional behavior will be the key variable. Large managers could buy when retail is jittery, and some market watchers point to companies that have built crypto desks as potential demand anchors. Despite the uncertainty, the $500,000 mark remains the headline grabber for bullish investors. Parish’s call captures attention because it ties sentiment swings to potential market moves, while Edelman’s projections underline how even modest allocations from global wealth could push Bitcoin higher over time. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price corrected gains and tested the $66,000 support. BTC is now consolidating losses and might decline further below the $65,500 zone. Bitcoin is struggling to recover losses and moving lower below $67,200. The price is trading below $67,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,000 and $65,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $68,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $67,500 support zone. There was a push below $67,000. The price dipped below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. Finally, the price found some support near the $66,000 zone. It is now consolidating losses and there is a declining channel forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $66,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,350 level. The first key resistance is near the $68,000 level. A close above the $68,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $69,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,000 and $70,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $66,000 level or the 83.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The first major support is near the $65,500 level. The next support is now near the $65,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,000, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $67,350 and $68,000.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range, but beneath the surface, structural weakness is becoming increasingly evident. With price holding below the key $72,000 level, now acting as resistance, the broader technical outlook remains fragile, and any short-term consolidation may simply be masking underlying downside risk. Bitcoin Enters Clear Corrective Phase Bitcoin has entered a clear corrective phase after peaking in the $120,000–$125,000 region. Crypto analyst Alejandro₿TC notes that the weekly structure has broken to the downside, with the latest leg unfolding impulsively, a sign that momentum currently favors sellers rather than buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin Ready To Bounce Again? The Major Accumulation Trend You Should Be Aware Of The key level to watch is the $72,000–$74,000 zone. Previously acting as strong support, this area has now been lost and flipped into resistance. As long as Bitcoin continues to close below this range on the weekly timeframe, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective bounce rather than confirmation of a sustained reversal. On the downside, the $50,000–$52,000 region stands out as the primary magnet. This zone represents a significant weekly demand area and the base of the prior impulsive rally. If bearish pressure persists, it becomes the most logical target for a deeper retracement. The upcoming monthly close in 11 days could be decisive. A close below $72,000 would confirm the breakdown and increase the probability of further downside. Structurally, the market remains weak beneath that level, while a decisive reclaim above $74,000 would mark the first meaningful signal that strength is returning. Compression Intensifies Near $68,000 With volatility compressing as price trades within an increasingly narrow band, Bitcoin continues to coil tightly around the $67,000–$68,000 region. The lack of decisive movement in either direction suggests that the market is building energy for a larger expansion move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Untapped Liquidity: $64,000 Support Could Be Next Target According to Columbus, liquidity continues to build above the $70,000 level, and notable bids remain layered between $64,000 and $66,000. With liquidity stacked on both sides, the market is effectively squeezed between opposing forces, waiting for a catalyst. The longer Bitcoin remains trapped inside this tightening structure, the more aggressive the eventual breakout tends to be. Compression phases like this typically end with strong displacement, as one side of the market is forced to unwind positions.  From here, sustained acceptance above the $69,500–$70,000 area would likely open the door for momentum toward heavier liquidity zones overhead. On the other hand, failure to reclaim that threshold keeps downside probes into the mid-$60,000s firmly in play, especially if bids begin to thin out under pressure. The next decisive move will likely be driven by which side of liquidity gets targeted first. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The World Liberty Forum held this week at Mar‑a‑Lago featured remarks from President Donald Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., who used the event to reaffirm their strong support for Bitcoin (BTC) and repeat their long‑standing $1 million price projection for the cryptocurrency. ‘Never Been More Bullish On Bitcoin’ Speaking on Wednesday, Eric Trump described himself as “a huge proponent of Bitcoin” and said he has never felt more optimistic about the asset’s future. “I’ve never been more bullish on bitcoin in my life,” he said, arguing that the digital currency has the potential to eventually reach $1 million per coin. Related Reading: Macro Wobbles May Send Bitcoin Back To The $50,000s, Industry CEO Claims However, amid falling Bitcoin prices, Eric acknowledged the asset’s volatility and characterized price swings as typical for an emerging technology with significant growth potential. In his view, Bitcoin’s upside contrasts sharply with traditional fixed‑income investments such as municipal bonds or US Treasuries (T-Bills), which generally offer lower yields. At the same time, Donald Trump Jr. offered sharp criticism of the traditional banking system, calling it a “Ponzi scheme” and arguing that the family’s move into crypto was not driven by trend‑chasing but by necessity.  Trump Brothers Accuse Banks Of Political ‘Debanking’ During an interview with CNBC at the forum, Donald Trump Jr. said his family turned to digital assets after banks closed “hundreds of accounts” belonging to the Trump Organization in early 2021. “You know, we didn’t get into crypto because we were on the leading edge,” Trump Jr. said. “We got into it out of necessity. They basically forced us into it.”  The brothers attributed the account closures to the political fallout following the January 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol, when supporters of their father stormed the building while contesting the 2020 presidential election results.  Related Reading: $274 Billion In Potential Bitcoin Selling Could Hit Markets, Expert Says They also claimed that banks had “debanked” other smaller clients over their conservative political views. Eric Trump said their crypto initiative, World Liberty Financial, is part of a broader effort to reshape the financial system.  “We’re trying to modernize finance,” he said, adding that the family felt ostracized by mainstream institutions during that period. “We’re the most canceled people in the world in 2020, 2021,” he said. As of this writing, Bitcoin is still consolidating at approximately $66,258. This represents a 50% difference from the current trading prices and the all-time high of $126,000, which was reached last October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

An analyst has highlighted how the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse has continued to be in a bearish phase recently, but its value is starting to flatten out. Bitcoin IFP Could Be Reaching A Low In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which is an on-chain indicator that tracks the BTC flows occurring between centralized spot and derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Notably Weaker Than Nov 2025 Bounce: Glassnode When the value of this metric rises, it means more of the cryptocurrency is flowing from spot to derivatives platforms. Such a trend implies speculative interest in BTC is going up. On the other hand, the indicator witnessing a decline suggests traders may be taking a lower risk approach as they are reducing their transactions to derivatives exchanges. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin IFP and its 90-day moving average (MA) over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin IFP was on the rise during the last few months of 2024, but in 2025, a reversal occurred in the indicator. Flows to derivatives exchanges started declining and before long, the metric slipped under its 90-day MA. A cross below this MA is considered to signal the start of either a bear market or a correction phase for the cryptocurrency. Over the course of 2025, the signal maintained as the IFP continued to go down and failed to find a break above its 90-day MA. Interestingly, Bitcoin still rallied during the second half of the year to a new all-time high (ATH). Back in 2021, a similar pattern emerged as BTC observed another leg of the bull run in the second half of that year alongside a bearish signal on the IFP. From the chart, it’s visible that this previous IFP bearish transition remained all the way until the bottom of the 2022 bear market, where it flattened out before reversing up. A similar pattern was also observed during the 2018 bear market. As such, given the historical precedence, it’s possible that Bitcoin might find a bottom alongside a reversal in the IFP this time around as well. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Drops To Deepest Level Since FTX Bottom The early signs of such a reversal may even potentially be beginning to appear, as the indicator has been switching to a sideways trajectory recently. “The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse is still in a bearish phase, but it’s starting to flatten out,” noted the analyst. Naturally, it’s still too early to tell whether derivatives flows are witnessing a real trend shift, so it only remains to be seen how the IFP will develop in the near future. “A shift here could signal changing capital flows,” said Maartunn. “Watch this metric closely in the coming weeks.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,300, up 1.3% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Arthur Hayes has issued a stark market warning: he sees a growing split between his preferred risk gauge, Bitcoin, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 as a signal that credit stress may be building under the surface. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation Hayes, a co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, calls Bitcoin a “fiat liquidity fire alarm” — an asset that reacts quickly when credit conditions change. A Warning From Market Signals When two assets that often moved together start to pull apart, traders take notice. Hayes believes that a gap like this deserves investigation because it could point to trouble in bank balance sheets or in the flow of lending. He argues the move is not about one stock or one trade; it is about the plumbing of credit and how fast liquidity can dry up when things turn. How AI Job Cuts Could Ripple Through Credit Reports note that companies cited AI as a reason for thousands of layoffs in recent years, with an outplacement firm counting roughly 55,000 cuts in 2025 that were tied to AI. Much of that hit was inside tech. Hayes sketches a rough scenario: a sizable drop in knowledge-worker employment would weaken mortgage and consumer credit repayment, which could then shave bank equity and tighten lending. The numbers he offers are approximate and built on multiple assumptions, but they are intended to show how a shock to white-collar paychecks could cascade into the credit system. Expectations About Central Bank Action Hayes expects a policy response if banks start to fail and credit freezes. He argues the Federal Reserve would step in with fresh liquidity, and that more money creation would follow — a move he says would be favorable for Bitcoin’s price outlook. That scenario has been a recurring theme in his commentary; past essays and posts have linked anticipated Fed liquidity to sharp rallies in crypto markets. Altcoin Bets And Fund Positioning His fund, Maelstrom, is said to plan staking or stablecoin deployments into privacy-focused and exchange-native plays once liquidity policy shifts occur, naming Zcash and Hyperliquid as examples. That kind of tactical stance is meant to profit from a short-term surge in risk assets after a policy pivot. Related Reading: XRP Emerges As The Crypto Everyone’s Talking About, Grayscale Says A Measured View This is a dramatic chain of events: AI job losses lead to credit losses, which cause bank stress, which forces the central bank to expand money supply, which lifts Bitcoin. Each link is plausible, but none is guaranteed. Some of Hayes’ figures are rough estimates meant to illustrate risk rather than to act as a precise forecast. Market history shows that central banks do sometimes step in, and that policy moves can power asset rallies, but outcomes depend on timing, scale and public confidence — factors that are hard to predict in advance. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Robert Kiyosaki expects a sharp market slide and sees it as a chance to add to his holdings. He has named Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside gold and silver as places to park money when prices tumble. Related Reading: Bitcoin Should Be Flying—Instead, Quantum Risk Keeps It Grounded: Analyst The book author and crypto figure calls scarcity a simple reason to act now. That idea is not new, but he is putting fresh public emphasis on buying during market panic. “I am so excited and bullish on Bitcoin I am buying more and more as Bitcoin’s price goes down,” Kiyosaki said in an X post. Kiyosaki’s Scarcity Argument Kiyosaki’s view rests on one clear point: some assets are limited. Bitcoin’s capped supply is used as the main example. He believes limited supply can protect value when currencies are under pressure. “I will be buying more Bitcoin as people panic and sell into the coming crash,” he said. The strategy he’s talking about is to keep buying during price drops, taking advantage of panic to pick up more at lower levels. I Am Warning You: In Rich Dad’s Prophecy published 2013 I warned of the biggest stock market crash in history still coming. That giant crash is now imminent. The good news is those of you who followed my rich dad’s warning and prepared….the coming crash will make you richer… — Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) February 17, 2026 For people who can handle big swings, that approach may produce strong gains over many years. It is an aggressive stance, and it relies on the buyer staying calm while markets move wildly around them. “This coming crash may make you richer beyond your wildest dreams if you realize crashes are the best of times to get richer,” Kiyosaki said. Market Voices Push Back Not everyone agrees with that approach. Billionaire Warren Buffett has long warned that crypto looks speculative, and financial commentator Peter Schiff argues that digital coins lack a reliable store of value. Their warnings are blunt: prices can fall much further and stay low for a long time. This tension between bullish accumulation and caution is shaping investor debate right now. Price swings in a short span are not uncommon, and those moves can test conviction. What To Watch Next Liquidity and regulatory shifts remain key factors. Large drops have often been amplified when buyers pull back or regulators implement sudden rule changes. Exchange outages, forced selling by major holders, and rapid swings in lending markets have triggered past selloffs. Reports note that macro headlines and shifts in sentiment among big investors can drive prices lower even when long-term fundamentals appear steady. Steady accumulation during such periods has historically depended on the ability to endure these shocks. Related Reading: What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation A Plain Takeaway Kiyosaki is making a choice about how to deal with risk: accept volatility and buy more, or avoid it and likely miss big rebounds. Both approaches have been proven right at different times. Short-term noise will be loud and distracting. Long-term results will be shown by market prices and by who keeps their nerve. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

A fresh round of Bitcoin market-manipulation chatter is ricocheting through crypto X after Jane Street added 7,105,206 shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, in Q4 2025, bringing its reported position to 20,315,780 shares. Speculators tie this disclosure to a long-running rumor about a daily “10AM” sell program. Is Jane Street Manipulating The Bitcoin Price? The allegation is simple and sticky: the same sophisticated desk “accumulating” IBIT is also supposedly the desk leaning on BTC and BTC-linked vehicles at a predictable time each morning to create better entry prices. The rebuttal, from market structure veterans, is equally blunt: you’re reading a market maker’s inventory like it’s a directional bet. BullTheory framed the 13F as an accumulation story, writing that Jane Street bought 7,105,206 IBIT shares “worth $276 million” in Q4 2025 and “now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million,” before adding: “This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily ‘10 AM’ manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Notably Weaker Than Nov 2025 Bounce: Glassnode The screenshot circulating alongside the claim shows Jane Street Group LLC listed with a 13F source tag, an options indicator marked “Y,” a position of 20,315,780, and a latest change of 7,105,206, filed 12/31/25. That “Y” is the detail critics keep coming back to because it’s the quickest tell that the position may not be what the headline suggests. BREAKING: Jane Street bought 7,105,206 $IBIT shares worth $276 million in Q4 2025. It now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million. This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily “10 AM” manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower. pic.twitter.com/NFC5r5hHUn — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 17, 2026 Milk Road amplified the “10am theory,” calling it “persistent whispers” about “certain institutional trading desks running a very specific/shady playbook… (Jane Street included.).” The account described an alleged routine: “Around 10 AM ET, right at the US stock market open, large sell volumes hit BTC and related ETF shares. This creates panic → triggers liquidations of leveraged longs → and exploits thin liquidity pockets. Then the same firms allegedly buy back at lower prices.” Milk Road added that the pattern “apparently emerged prominently in early Nov 2025,” showed up in Q2 and Q3, and “has continued into early 2026,” while stressing: “To be clear – these are unverified rumors circulating in the community.” Not everyone bought the internal logic even on its own terms. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost responded with the question many traders would ask first: “In this rumor, when is Jane Street supposed to have bought large amounts of BTC so as not to be selling at a loss right now”. Milk Road replied that the rumor “suggests they’d accumulated in the lead up,” then used existing holdings to “sell/dump prices → buy in size at a lower price,” adding again: “totally unverified.” Market Makers: Inventory Isn’t A Thesis The strongest pushback focused on mechanics, not vibes. Louis LaValle, CEO and co-founder of Frontier Investments, argued the viral framing misreads what a 13F is showing in the first place: “This isn’t correct. You’re misinterpreting the 13F. Jane Street is a lead market maker and Authorized Participant for IBI. They aren’t ‘holding’ as a bet. The ‘Y’ in the options column next to that $5.7B value confirms this is a delta-hedged position.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows LaValle added that the Q4 increase could be operational rather than directional: “They added 7 million shares in Q4 to manage the record volatility and creation/redemption demand. As a market maker, they hold these shares to balance the risk of the options they write. It has nothing to do with conviction or some mysterious price manipulation.” Former hedge fund manager Michael Green struck a similar note, calling the discourse “painful” and pointing to what isn’t visible in the filing: “Jane Street may be taking a position in IBIT, but that position is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options (on IBIT) and futures positions. They are certainly not ‘accumulating’ a position in Bitcoin. That’s how market making works.” Others put it more sharply. Former prop trader Ryan Scott (“Horse”) warned: “Anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be ‘You’ll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported’ Jane Street is not longing Bitcoin.” Nik Bhatia boiled it down to incentives: “Jane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money.” Overall, the market-maker explanation appears more consistent with how these positions are typically managed, while the “10AM slam” narrative remains, at this stage, just that, a theory circulating on crypto X rather than a verified claim. At press time, BTC traded at $68,107. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains stuck below the $70,000 mark, a level that once served as a crucial floor for the cryptocurrency but has now turned into its most significant near-term barrier.  After losing that support, the asset has struggled to regain momentum, and analysts warn that a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and weak buying pressure could push the asset back into the $50,000 range — a level not seen since September 2024. Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty And ETF Withdrawals Market sentiment has noticeably deteriorated in recent weeks. “Sentiment is clearly bleak in crypto markets,” said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter.  She pointed out that although traditional financial institutions continue to make meaningful strides in adopting digital assets, those developments have not translated into stronger prices, which she noted, is weighing further on investor confidence. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days Broader macroeconomic forces are adding to the unease. According to Bloomberg, traders are assessing escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, as well as renewed debate over whether the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI) could extend beyond the technology sector.  At the same time, expectations surrounding Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts have shifted back into focus following last week’s inflation data, injecting additional uncertainty into risk markets. Capital flows are not offering much relief. US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with $360 million pulled last week alone.  Bitcoin At Risk Of Drop To $50,000 “Macro news has been closely correlated with crypto’s risk profile over the last 12 months,” said Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound as it searches for a new catalyst to revive sentiment.  Howard added that a pending US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, expected Friday, could have a more meaningful market impact than routine Federal Reserve minutes or inflation reports. Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 Amid this debate, investors view $60,000 as a pivotal support level for Bitcoin, but that floor could give way if risk appetite weakens further, according to Robin Singh, CEO of crypto tax platform Koinly. Singh cautioned that the market does not yet display the type of deep capitulation typically associated with durable cycle lows. “One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the $50,000s,” Singh said. “This doesn’t have the same full capitulation feel we’ve seen at true cycle bottoms in the past.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $68,000, marking a 29% decline over the past thirty days. Compared to the all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, CoinGecko data shows a 46% difference between the current trading price and the all-time high.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $70,000 level, with persistent selling pressure keeping the market in a defensive posture. Price action has repeatedly failed to establish sustained momentum above this psychological threshold, reflecting cautious sentiment among both institutional and retail participants. While volatility has moderated compared with the sharp declines seen earlier in the cycle, the broader structure still suggests a market searching for direction rather than entering a clear recovery phase. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Losses Mirror Past Bottoms: Accumulation Continues Despite Pressure Recent on-chain data from a CryptoQuant analyst offers additional context by examining whale positioning. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC currently control approximately 4.483 million BTC as of February 16, 2026. Within this cohort, long-term holder whales — those holding coins for more than 155 days — dominate with roughly 3.196 million BTC, or about 71.3% of the total. Short-term whales, defined by holding periods under 155 days, account for around 1.287 million BTC, representing 28.7%. Although newer whales have modestly increased balances in recent months, structural control remains firmly with long-term holders. This imbalance suggests that while newer capital faces ongoing pressure, more established investors continue to anchor the market. Whether this dynamic supports stabilization or precedes further volatility remains an open question. Whale Cost Basis Signals Redistribution Rather Than Capitulation The analyst emphasizes that the most decisive signal comes from comparing realized price — the on-chain average acquisition cost — across different whale cohorts. Short-term holder (STH) whales currently show a realized price near $88,494, while long-term holder (LTH) whales maintain a significantly lower cost basis around $41,626. With Bitcoin trading close to $68,795, the contrast is pronounced. Newer whales are sitting on roughly a 22% unrealized loss, whereas long-term whales retain an estimated 65% profit margin. This asymmetry highlights a familiar market dynamic: recent capital is under pressure, while structurally entrenched holders still operate from a position of strength. When price declines accelerate, short-term whales historically tend to capitulate first, locking in losses. Recent realized profit data suggest this process has already intensified since Bitcoin’s October all-time high, with deeper negative spikes appearing as the correction progressed. Historically, similar configurations observed in 2019 and 2022 corresponded with redistribution phases rather than systemic collapse. Supply gradually shifted from lower-conviction participants toward stronger holders. The key threshold remains the LTH realized price near $41.6K. As long as Bitcoin trades above that level, structural capitulation is not confirmed. Instead, the current phase appears to reflect conviction transfer rather than widespread market destruction. Related Reading: Hyperunit Whale Dumps $500M In Ethereum As Massive Crypto Bet Turns Sour Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Downtrend Structure Remains Intact Bitcoin price action on the 3-day timeframe continues to reflect a structurally weak market following the sharp rejection from the late-2025 highs near $125,000. Since then, BTC has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a clear intermediate downtrend. The recent drop toward the $65,000–$70,000 zone highlights persistent selling pressure, particularly after repeated failures to reclaim higher moving averages. From a technical perspective, price is currently trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are beginning to slope downward. This alignment typically signals bearish momentum and suggests rallies may continue to face resistance. The 200-period average near the mid-$90,000 region now represents a major structural barrier rather than support. Related Reading: Liquidity Or Liability? History’s Hard Lessons For The XRP Momentum Play Volume dynamics reinforce this interpretation. Selling spikes accompanying recent declines appear stronger than buying activity during rebounds, indicating distribution rather than accumulation in the short term. However, the stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 range suggests a potential consolidation phase rather than immediate continuation lower. Key support sits around the recent local low near $60,000. A sustained breakdown below that level could trigger another volatility expansion, while recovery above $80,000 would be required to neutralize the current bearish structure and shift sentiment toward stabilization. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com