THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin’s price recovered to around $73,000 in early March, after having fallen to the mid-$60,000 range from late January due to geopolitical unrest. What The Data Says Bitcoin’s price notable instability during the first trimester of the year seems to have a direct geopolitical correlation, CryptoQuant reports. Bitcoin dropped to around $63,000 on February 29, following the U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran on February 28 and the Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East. BTC had recovered near $70,000 by March 2, and by March 4 and 5 the price pushed to above $73,000 due to strong buying pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims $73,000 Amid Iran War Volatility, But Analyst Issues Key Warning Geopolitics In The Bitcoin Price CryptoQuant highlights a classic short squeeze dynamic on the derivatives side. A short squeeze happens when when the price of an asset rises very suddenly and to the upside, which forces traders to buy back their shorts as price reverses. As the sellers get pushed out, the price rises even further due to liquidations. Funding rates turned negative and futures open interest climbed during the dump, signaling that many traders were opening or adding short positions into the Iran headlines. Bitcoin price on Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant As the conflict failed to escalate further and ETF demand stayed positive, Bitcoin’s price pushed higher, triggering liquidations of late shorts and driving funding back toward neutral, rebounding toward the high‑$60K / $70K area. In CryptoQuant’s words, the episode looks like a temporary liquidity and positioning shock layered on top of the existing trend, not the start of a new war‑driven regime. Bitcoin: Open Interest - All Exchanges, All Symbol. Source: CryptoQuant The Iran‑related sell‑off was primarily a flow‑event rather than a structural shift in holder behavior: it was less about investors “fleeing to safety” and more about how positioning and liquidity interacted around the shock. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Again as Iran War Jitters Hit BTC, Risk Assets A Broader Picture This episode is not an outlier but part of a pattern in Bitcoin’s price on‑chain behavior across major conflicts. From Ukraine and Gaza to the recent crisis in Venezuela, they all display the same signature: a sharp, fear‑driven spike in coins moving onto exchanges around the event window, followed by a rapid normalization back to baseline as price re‑anchors to its prior trajectory. That was exactly what emerged during the Venezuela escalation, where military headlines amplified intraday volatility but failed to trigger a sustained distribution phase or a structural trend change. Wars and geopolitical conflicts inject short‑term stress into flows, but once the initial panic fades, Bitcoin tends to revert to the macro trend that was already in place. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview  

An analyst has highlighted how Bitcoin has consistently bottomed out between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV pricing bands during the past decade. Bitcoin Still Hasn’t Breached Below 1.0 MVRV Band In This Cycle In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about historical Bitcoin bottoms from the perspective of the MVRV Pricing Bands. This is an on-chain pricing model for BTC that’s based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. Related Reading: Altseason Mentions Hit Extreme Lows: Is Dogecoin About To Benefit? The MVRV Ratio measures how the market cap of BTC, a representation of the value that investors are carrying in the present, compares against the Realized Cap, a proxy for the total capital invested into the cryptocurrency. In short, this indicator tells us about the profit-loss balance of BTC holders as a whole. When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1.0, it means the average investor is currently holding a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of losses on the network. Generally, the higher the investor profits get, the more likely they become to take part in profit-taking. Thus, tops can become more likely to occur as the MVRV Ratio diverges far above 1.0. Similarly, selling can reach exhaustion when the majority of the supply is underwater, implying bottoms may become probable at low MVRV levels. Based on these behaviors, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has created the MVRV Pricing Bands, which is a model that highlights Bitcoin price levels corresponding to certain key MVRV Ratio levels. Below is the chart for the indicator shared by Martinez. From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin price has been trading below both the 2.4 and 3.2 bands for a while now. These levels, situated around $130,000 and $174,000, respectively, correspond to thresholds where profit realization risk becomes significant. The cryptocurrency has faced bearish momentum recently, but its price has continued to hold above the 1.0 level. This means that despite the drawdown, the investors as a whole have remained in a state of net unrealized gain. In the chart, the analyst has pointed out a pattern that Bitcoin has tended to follow with MVRV Pricing Bands. “Over the past decade, Bitcoin $BTC has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands,” said Martinez. Currently, these levels sit near $54,000 and $43,000, respectively. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Selling Cools: Is Months-Long Distribution Finally Ending? It now remains to be seen whether BTC will continue to go down in the near future and retest this historical bottoming zone, or the asset will find a low before it, breaking the pattern from the previous cycles. The coin has already broken one pattern this time: it hasn’t been able to breach the 3.2 level a single time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $73,000, up more than 6% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

As the crypto markets rebounded on Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back from the recent selloff triggered by the escalating Middle East conflict, targeting a surge toward high levels. While some market observers see this as a sign of strength and potential bottoming, others warn that the rally could be short-lived. Related Reading: Bitcoin Leads Crypto Funds’ $1 Billion Rebound To End 5-Week Negative Streak Bitcoin Shows Strength Despite Growing Geopolitical Fears On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged 8.3% to trade above the $72,000 barrier for the first time in a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $63,000-$73,000 price range since early February, but it has failed to break past the $70,000 mark throughout this period. Notably, the escalation of the US-Israel war with Iran has introduced significant volatility to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This resulted in sharp declines on Saturday, with BTC dropping to $63,000. However, the flagship crypto’s price quickly stabilized around the mid-zone of its local range, followed by a partial recovery above the $68,000 area at the start of the week. Now, Bitcoin has surged 15.87% from its recent lows, reaching a one-month high of $73,479 on Wednesday morning despite increasing geopolitical tensions. In a recent Bits + Bips podcast episode, Chris Perkins, Managing Partner and President of CoinFund, highlighted that BTC’s signs of strength and resilience, alongside signs of liquidity entering the market, are a “good setup” for a potential bottoming. It’s worth noting that US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen a remarkable performance over the past two days, with $683.34 million in inflows since Monday, suggesting increasing demand for the investment products. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, told Bloomberg, “This is a victory for cryptocurrencies, given the impressive selloff those financial markets and gold experienced the day before,” adding that “perhaps some traders are looking at crypto as a safe haven.” Too Early To Call BTC’s Bottom Despite the rebound, Kuptsikevich also warned that the situation remains “too fragile” to declare the market bottom. He explained that “Bitcoin is vulnerable due to the increased volatility of stock indexes, which is forcing institutional investors to reduce their leverage.” Meanwhile, market observer Ted Pillows suggested that BTC’s rally could be short-lived, drawing a comparison between the flagship crypto’s current performance and its early 2022 price action when the Russia-Ukraine war started. As the analyst noted, Bitcoin, which had already begun correcting from its 2021 all-time high, saw initial volatility when the conflict erupted, but pumped almost 40% in the following month before dumping another 67%. BTC targets a potential 45% correction toward the $40,000 area. Source: Ted Pillows on X This time, BTC is beginning to display a similar performance, which could lead to a 20%-25% rally toward the $78,000-$80,000 zone, according to the market watcher. However, this rebound could be followed by a strong rejection at this key horizontal area. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit If history repeats, the next phase of the cryptocurrency’s downtrend could begin soon, Ted Pillows cautioned, potentially sending the price 45% below the rally’s potential peak prices. Analyst Ali Martinez observed that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade. According to the chart, this would place BTC’s potential bottom between the $43,647-$54,559 levels. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $73,255, a 10% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added another $155 Million on Wednesday, continuing a two week run of institutional inflows even as Glassnode warns underlying demand remains fragile.

The US government is sitting on roughly 378,372 Bitcoin worth more than $24 billion, according to data from Arkham Research. Yet more than a year after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, no new Bitcoin has been purchased. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% The government has not gone beyond the digital assets it already held from criminal seizures. David Bailey, a former crypto advisor to the Trump administration, says that gap tells the whole story. Liking Is Not Enough: Bailey “Liking Bitcoin is not enough,” Bailey said last week at the Bitcoin Investor Week Conference in New York City. He was direct about what he sees as the difference between political goodwill and real action. His view: Trump’s support for Bitcoin has been real, but support alone does not move markets or policy. Spending Political Capital Is The Hard Part Bailey said the administration made an important first step. But first steps, he argued, do not automatically lead to second ones. Without a willingness to push through resistance — from budget hawks, from skeptical lawmakers, from a political system that does not easily bend to new financial ideas — the reserve order remains mostly symbolic. Reports say the White House’s own AI and crypto coordinator, David Sacks, acknowledged the challenge early. Just two months after the executive order was signed, Sacks said adding to the government’s Bitcoin holdings would require a “budget-neutral” approach — meaning no new taxes and no new debt. That constraint has proven difficult to work around. No framework for how to meet it has been made public. Bailey did not spare the hard language. “Unless you’re willing to bear the political capital necessary to mobilize the different gears necessary to move the ball forward,” he said, the outcome is the same whether a politician likes Bitcoin or not. He called out the difference between voicing an opinion and doing the work to back it up. Bailey Says Bitcoin Wins Either Way Despite the criticism, Bailey stopped well short of pessimism. He told the conference audience that Bitcoin does not need government action to survive or grow. The question, as he framed it, is only one of timing. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit “Whether it’s four years from now, or 10 years from now, or 20 years from now,” he said, “we will get to the point where we actually have a government that is conducive to the rules we need for Bitcoin to be successful.” Bailey now runs KindlyMD, a Bitcoin treasury company, and he made clear his focus is on expanding ownership rather than waiting on Washington. More Bitcoin owners means more voters who have a personal stake in pro-Bitcoin policy — and that, he argued, is what makes adoption inevitable over time. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView  

Bitcoin is regaining momentum after reclaiming the $70,000 level, signaling renewed strength following weeks of consolidation and volatile price action. The move above this key psychological threshold has helped stabilize sentiment across the market, as investors assess whether the recent correction has begun to transition into a new accumulation phase. Related Reading: The Quiet Accumulation: 13,500 Bitcoin Leaving Binance Signals A Strategic Whale Pivot at $66,000 At the same time, new on-chain data is providing insight into how certain entities are positioning within the network. According to blockchain analytics platform Arkham, American Bitcoin — the mining operation associated with the Trump family — is actively mining Bitcoin and retaining the newly generated coins in its on-chain wallets rather than distributing them immediately to the market. This behavior is noteworthy because miner activity plays an important role in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. When miners choose to hold rather than sell their rewards, the immediate circulating supply available to exchanges decreases. Over time, this can influence market liquidity and contribute to tightening supply conditions, particularly if sustained across multiple participants in the mining sector. The development also intersects with the broader conversation around the concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Mining operations that accumulate rather than liquidate their output effectively transform operational activity into long-term treasury positioning within the Bitcoin ecosystem. American Bitcoin Expands Mining Capacity While Building a Large BTC Treasury Arkham data further illustrates the scale of American Bitcoin’s current mining and accumulation strategy. According to the platform, the operation has mined approximately 766 BTC so far this year, representing roughly $54.39 million at current market prices. Rather than immediately distributing these rewards to cover operational costs, the mined coins appear to be held in on-chain wallets, reinforcing the company’s accumulation-oriented approach. In total, American Bitcoin’s holdings now stand at around 6,100 BTC, with a combined value exceeding $433.7 million. For a mining operation, maintaining reserves of this magnitude signals a strategic treasury position rather than a purely transactional mining model. Historically, miners often sell a portion of their rewards to finance infrastructure, electricity, and operational expenses. Holding a large share of mined Bitcoin instead reflects confidence in the asset’s long-term value proposition. The company is also expanding its operational capacity. Arkham reports that American Bitcoin recently acquired an additional 11,000 Bitcoin mining machines to scale its future hash power. Increasing hardware capacity allows the operation to compete more effectively for block rewards and transaction fees as the network’s mining difficulty continues to evolve. Combined, these developments highlight how some mining entities are increasingly integrating production with long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategies. Related Reading: Surpassing FTX-Era Lows: 38% Of Altcoins Hit Record Lows As Liquidity Abandons The Crypto Fringe Bitcoin Tests Key Long-Term Support After Sharp Pullback Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after a significant correction from the cycle highs set earlier in the year. Price is currently trading around $70,000, following a sharp rejection from the $110,000–$115,000 region, which marked the local top of the recent bullish expansion phase. From a structural perspective, the correction has pushed Bitcoin back toward the confluence of major moving averages that historically act as dynamic support during bull markets. The price is now hovering near the 50-week moving average, while the 100-week moving average sits slightly below current levels. These zones often function as equilibrium areas where long-term participants reassess positioning. Related Reading: The $650M Wave: Why XRP’s Record Inflow To Binance Signals A Massive Institutional Retreat Importantly, the 200-week moving average remains far below the current market price, continuing to slope upward. This suggests that, despite the recent drawdown, the broader macro trend still maintains a constructive long-term structure. Volume patterns on the chart indicate that selling pressure intensified during the initial breakdown from the highs but has gradually decreased as price approached the $65,000–$70,000 region. This decline in aggressive selling activity may indicate that the bulk of forced liquidations has already occurred. If Bitcoin can consolidate above this zone, it could establish a base for renewed accumulation. However, a sustained breakdown below the $65,000 area would expose the market to deeper retracement toward the $60,000 region. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Paraguay’s state‑owned electricity monopoly, Administración Nacional de Electricidad (ANDE), has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with infrastructure firm Morphware to launch a government‑run Bitcoin mining program powered by thousands of confiscated mining machines and surplus hydroelectric power. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Again as Iran War Jitters Hit BTC, Risk Assets What Does This Entail? In a first‑of‑its‑kind move, Paraguay state power company is about to become a Bitcoin miner. ANDE has signed a formal agreement with Morphware to to build a state‑run mining program that uses two things the country already has in abundance: seized mining rigs and cheap hydroelectric power from the Itaipú dam. In practice, ANDE will host and own the mining operations. Instead of exporting that energy at low, treaty‑defined prices, the utility will route part of it into Bitcoin mining facilities it controls. Morphware will act as a technical advisor rather than a speculative partner: according to Morphware founder and CEO Kenso Trabing, because ANDE has no experience mining Bitcoin, the company’s role will be “an advisory one. The pilot phase will plug in about 1,500 seized miners at existing utility buildings located next to substations, which can be converted into basic mining facilities with ventilation, transformers, distribution units, and proper metering. Related Reading: Next “Binance Killer”? Hyperliquid Now Dominates DeFi Derivatives, New Report Shows Seizing Background This decision follows a series of nationwide raids since early 2024, as ANDE moved against unmetered and fraudulent high‑voltage connections used by illegal miners.  Most of the machines going into this program were seized between May and June 2024, when authorities intensified inspections in mining hotspots. In Salto del Guairá alone, ANDE confiscated 2,738 mining rigs after detecting an unmetered high‑load connection worth roughly 1.1 billion guaraníes (around 146,000 dollars) in stolen power every month, alongside dozens of similar operations that pushed the total stockpile of seized ASICs close to 30,000 units. Another State Turning To Bitcoin Paraguay’s move slots into a small but growing group of states that appear to be trying to turn energy policy into hash rate. El Salvador has already folded Bitcoin into its official toolkit, pointing geothermal power from state‑run plants into mining facilities and adding those coins to a government‑controlled BTC stockpile alongside its “volcano bond” ambitions, as reported by our sister website Bitcoinist. Further east, Bhutan’s sovereign wealth fund has quietly operated hydro‑powered mining since at least 2019, using surplus electricity from its dams to accumulate Bitcoin on the kingdom’s balance sheet and, more recently, to back new digital‑asset and “mindfulness city” projects. Paraguay’s ANDE–Morphware experiment is the hydro‑rich, Latin American version of that same playbook: keep the energy domestic, own the infrastructure, and let the state, not just private miners, capture the upside. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of relief after reclaiming the $70,000 level. A move that haskeepingsed selling pressure following weeks of volatile trading. The recovery comes as markets continue to react to macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Which have kept liquidity fragile and investor sentiment cautious. While the push above $70K offers a short-term improvement in momentum, the underlying data suggests that a significant portion of market participants remain under pressure. Related Reading: The Quiet Accumulation: 13,500 Bitcoin Leaving Binance Signals A Strategic Whale Pivot at $66,000 According to a recent CryptoQuant report, holders of spot Bitcoin ETFs — which broadly reflect institutional and retail demand through regulated investment vehicles — are currently positioned below their estimated average realized price. Calculated at roughly $79,000, this cost basis leaves the average ETF investor holding a loss despite the recent rebound. Treat this metric as a reference point, not as a precise measurement of individual investor behavior. ETF flows can obscure internal reallocations between participants, and the estimate cannot perfectly capture every underlying transaction within the funds. Nevertheless, it provides a useful approximation of the aggregate entry level for ETF capital. ETF Outflows Ease After Record $8.9B Drawdown as Bitcoin Attempts Stabilization Darkfost’s analysis highlights the scale of the recent pressure across spot Bitcoin ETFs. With Bitcoin trading below the $70,000 threshold during much of the correction, these funds recorded the largest drawdown since their all-time high in terms of invested value. In dollar terms, more than $8.9 billion flowed out of the ETF ecosystem as investors reduced exposure during the downturn. The pressure was particularly visible in the largest product in the market. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which once held more than 806,000 BTC at its peak, saw substantial withdrawals throughout the correction. According to the data, over 42,000 BTC exited the fund, reflecting a clear wave of distribution as market sentiment deteriorated and price momentum weakened. These outflows represented a significant source of selling pressure during the decline, reinforcing the broader weakness across spot markets. When large ETFs experience withdrawals, they often need to redeem Bitcoin to meet redemptions, increasing supply on the market. However, recent data suggests the situation may be stabilizing. The cumulative drawdown from ETF holdings has improved from roughly −$8.9 billion to around −$7.8 billion from the peak. While still negative, this shift indicates that the pace of outflows is slowing. A renewed wave of demand from ETF investors would likely help Bitcoin establish a stronger structural base moving forward. Related Reading: Surpassing FTX-Era Lows: 38% Of Altcoins Hit Record Lows As Liquidity Abandons The Crypto Fringe Bitcoin Reclaims $70K as Short-Term Momentum Improves On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is showing short-term recovery momentum after pushing above the $70,000 level. Price has managed to reclaim the 50-period moving average (blue) and is now testing the 100-period moving average (green), signaling improving short-term strength after weeks of consolidation and lower highs. The recent move above $70K represents an important psychological shift. Throughout late February, the $69,000–$70,000 region acted as a consistent rejection zone where sellers repeatedly capped upside attempts. The latest breakout suggests that buyers are beginning to absorb that supply, at least in the short term. Related Reading: Bloodbath Or Buy-Zone? Bitcoin’s $66K Stagnation Hits The 25% Loss Threshold Historically Tied To Market Bottoms However, the broader structure remains cautious. Bitcoin is still trading below the 200-period moving average (red), currently positioned near the mid-$70K range. This level continues to represent the key resistance that would need to be reclaimed to confirm a stronger trend reversal. Volume has modestly increased during the breakout attempt, indicating renewed participation, though not yet at levels typically associated with sustained bullish expansions. From a technical perspective, holding above $69,000 will be critical for maintaining momentum. If this level flips into support, BTC could attempt a move toward the $73,000–$75,000 region. Conversely, a failure to hold above $69K could return the price to the broader consolidation range around $66,000–$67,000. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a steady increase above $70,000 and $72,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above $72,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $68,800 support. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $72,000 and $70,800 levels. Bitcoin Price Rallies Above $70,000 Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $67,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $68,800 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $70,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $74,000. A high was formed at $74,062, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below $73,000, and the price declined toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66,164 swing low to the $74,062 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $73,500 level. A close above the $73,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $74,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,800 and $77,200. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $72,200 level. The first major support is near the $72,000 level. The next support is now near the $70,000 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66,164 swing low to the $74,062 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $68,800 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $72,000, followed by $70,000. Major Resistance Levels – $72,800 and $73,500.

Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since February 8, even as broader geopolitical risk remained elevated. The move appears to have been triggered by a sudden shift in macro sentiment around Iran, but market structure inside crypto had already left BTC primed for a sharp reversal. Why Is The Bitcoin Price Up Today? The immediate catalyst came from a report cited by The Kobeissi Letter, which said the New York Times had reported that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate an end to the war. According to Kobeissi, the proposed framework included Iran abandoning or sharply curtailing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, as well as reducing support for proxy groups, while President Donald Trump had “suggested” Iran’s surviving leaders could remain in power under a so-called “Venezuela model.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads Kobeissi added that “it remains unclear if a deal is feasible at this point in time,” but the timing matched a rapid risk-on reaction across US stock futures markets as well as Bitcoin. That macro headline helps explain the spark. It does not fully explain why Bitcoin reacted more forcefully than stocks and gold. For that, the positioning backdrop matters. BREAKING: US stock market futures surge as the New York Times reports that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate a deal to end the war. Potential terms include: 1. Iran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs 2. Iran to abandon… https://t.co/IsF3saWl1A — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 4, 2026 Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, argued that Bitcoin entered the latest week in an unusually compressed state after months of persistent weakness. “Bitcoin entered the weekend heavily oversold, heavily shorted, and significantly underowned,” Lunde wrote. “First and foremost, the context for BTC ahead of the war in Iran is wildly different from other asset classes. Bitcoin had fallen 50% after five continuous months of downside. The weekly RSI fell to its third lowest reading ever, meaning BTC entered the week uniquely oversold.” In other words, Bitcoin was not coming into the geopolitical shock from a position of strength. It was coming in after a deep washout. Lunde also noted that institutional exposure had already been cut back materially, with spot ETFs seeing outflows of nearly 100,000 BTC and notional CME open interest falling 30% from October levels. That matters because investors most likely to use BTC as a hedge against uncertainty had, in his view, already reduced exposure, loosening the asset’s correlation to traditional macro trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says Inside derivatives, the setup looked even more asymmetric. Lunde said perpetual funding rates had been unusually low and that traders had spent much of February paying a premium to stay short. “This is atypical market behavior for BTC, an asset with a distinct long bias,” he wrote. “Similar funding rate regimes have often appeared during bottoming phases and have historically reflected imbalances, overcrowding, and sell-side exhaustion.” That imbalance began to unwind quickly as price turned. In a follow-up post, Lunde said Binance BTCUSDT perpetual open interest had risen by 7,547 BTC in just four hours, a jump he said had not been seen on a comparable 4-hour basis since 2023. That suggests the rally was not just a spot reaction to headlines, but also a derivatives-led repositioning event. Crypto contributor Darkfost pointed to similar evidence. He noted that Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000 came alongside five consecutive days of spot ETF inflows and a decisive turn in aggressive derivatives buying. On Binance, the BTC Taker Buy Sell Ratio reached 1.18, its highest reading of the year, while taker buy volume exceeded $1 billion per hour multiple times during the session. Taken together, those signals suggest buyers are no longer simply absorbing selling pressure; they are beginning to dictate short-term price action. At press time, BTC traded at $70,851. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone.  The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685.  With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing.  In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area.  Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A crypto analyst has pinpointed critical price levels from past cycles on the Bitcoin chart that could determine the cryptocurrency’s next moves in this cycle. He has highlighted Bitcoin’s former all-time high target of $65,000 and a distinct 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58,000 as key levels to watch.  Bitcoin’s 200W SMA Highlighted As Key Watch Zone Crypto analyst VirtualBacon has taken to X to share new technical chart analysis, outlining two critical Bitcoin price levels he believes investors and traders should watch as the cryptocurrency continues its downward slide. Elaborating further in a video, VirtualBacon pointed to $65,000 and $58,000 as the zones worth paying attention to for anyone seeking a good buy opportunity in the current market environment.  Related Reading: Elliot Wave Theory Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $40,000, But The End Game Will Shock You VirtualBacon highlighted $58,000 as his most closely watched level, where the 200W SMA currently resides. The analyst described this indicator as one of the most consistently reliable buying zones in Bitcoin’s history, citing a track record spanning multiple market cycles.   He noted that during the 2015 bear market, Bitcoin’s price touched the 200W SMA four times without ever closing below it on a weekly candle. In 2018, the 200W SMA marked the absolute bottom of that cycle’s sell-off. The COVID-19 crash of 2020 also found support precisely at this same level. The one exception came in June 2022, when the price briefly wicked below the average before consolidating, then declined further by 25% following the collapse of FTX later that year.  VirtualBacon acknowledged the 2022 breakdown but emphasized that the 200W SMA near $58,000 remains a highly significant level, given how consistently it has served as a floor throughout Bitcoin’s history. In his view, the $58,000 level represents an area where long-term investors have historically stepped in, often accumulating at the bottom ahead of a strong price rally.  Analyst Marks Former Bitcoin ATH As Buying Opportunity In his analysis, VirtualBacon identified $65,000 as the first level to watch, which corresponds to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 bull cycle. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has already reached this area in the current cycle, arguing that, historically, former ATHs often become meaningful support when price revisits them. For investors who agree with this thesis, the analyst has suggested considering $65,000 as a potentially reasonable entry point into the market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Notably, VirtualBacon’s Bitcoin analysis comes at a time when sentiment across the crypto market remains fragile, with retail investors unsure whether the decline in the BTC price signals a strategic buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper pullback.  Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways trading has also done little to restore confidence, instead fueling fear among market participants. Earlier this week, the cryptocurrency briefly fell below $64,000 after reports emerged about the US and Israel airstrikes on Iran. The cryptocurrency has since rebounded above $70,000, marking a 24-hour increase of more than 8%. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have often followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes those repeating structures may already be pointing toward the next major bottom. This is the foundational principle behind why Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: trade an asset long enough, and it begins to show a pattern memory. Right now, that memory is speaking. And it’s pointing to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000. Pattern Memory And Bitcoin’s Retracement History A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s retracement behavior could determine where the current cycle eventually stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with long trading histories tend to repeat certain behavioral patterns across cycles.  Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Pattern memory shows that Bitcoin’s previous market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous peak. These levels have always acted as areas where the Bitcoin price finally found a durable bottom before beginning a new bull phase. During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin ultimately formed its bottom near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, once again reaching the 0.86 retracement low before a new accumulation phase began. However, the 2021 market cycle bottom occurred slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where Is The Next Real Bottom? If October 2025 was the true cycle high for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M timeframe suggests, then history gives us a roadmap for where price is likely headed before the next major bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle produces a range where Bitcoin may eventually bottom if history repeats. Mapping the current cycle’s Fibonacci retracement from the cycle low to the October 2025 high reveals three critical zones. The 0.618 sits at approximately $57,000-$58,000, which also aligns closely with the Weekly 200 Moving Average. However, this level alone may not represent the final low, based on how previous cycles behaved. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Instead, deeper retracement levels appear more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacements come into play. The 0.786 retracement level sits near $39,000 and coincides with the monthly 100-moving average. Beneath that, the 0.86 retracement level falls around $31,000. Both levels have previously defined major cycle bottoms; therefore, Bitcoin’s next long-term low could be somewhere within the $39,000 to $31,000 range if the October 2025 peak proves to be the true cycle high. Some market commentators have floated lower downside targets, including projections that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 region. However, the pattern-memory analysis shows that such a drop would represent a complete breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Javon Marks has predicted that the XRP price could rally 680% against Bitcoin, reaching $10 in the process. The analyst also indicated that the altcoin could rally higher, reaching the $15 target.  XRP Price Eyes 680% Rally Against Bitcoin In an X post, Javon Marks stated that the XRP price against Bitcoin looks to be setting up for an over 680% run, which could spark a larger rally for the altcoin. He noted that this could lead to a move to the $10 price point for XRP. The analyst added that this price rally aligns with the current measured move target, which is above $15.  Related Reading: Why XRP Is Being Hailed As The Top Trade Over Bitcoin And Ethereum An XRP price rally to as high as $15 would mark new all-time highs (ATHs) for the altcoin. Marks had, in an earlier analysis, alluded to how XRP outran Bitcoin by over 240%, when it rose by over 570%. As such, the analyst is confident that the altcoin could again significantly outperform the leading crypto.  His accompanying chart showed that the XRP price could record this 680% rally against Bitcoin next year, a period which could mark a new bull market cycle for the crypto market. It is worth noting that XRP was one of the standout performers at the start of the year, outperforming Bitcoin and other major crypto assets, which led to CNBC describing it as the trade of the year.  At the moment, the XRP price is facing downside pressure alongside Bitcoin and the broader crypto market due to the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran. XRP has typically mirrored BTC’s price action during this period, declining when Bitcoin does and rallying when it does.   XRP’s Price Action Is Still Corrective In an X post, crypto analyst Egrag crypto stated that the XRP price is still inside a descending channel and that momentum is currently corrective, not impulsive. As long as the altcoin remains within this channel, the analyst declared that XRP is in a distribution phase rather than a breakout.  Related Reading: XRP Mirrors The Russell 2000, What This Means And Why It’s Important For the XRP price to flip bullish, Egrag Crypto stated that the first trigger will be $1.55, with a major invalidation of the bearish structure a weekly close above $2.20. A rally to this level could trigger a bullish continuation, opening the door to a rally to between $2.70 and $3.60, and then a new ATH will be on the cards.  For the bearish scenario, Egrag Crypto predicted that the XRP price could drop to the $0.95 to $0.85 macro support if the altcoin faces rejection below the $1.55 level. He stated that there is a higher probability of the altcoin facing a deeper sweep to the downside than an early breakout reclaim.  At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.35, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Seventeen of the top 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders added to their positions while ordinary investors were selling. That split tells a story that goes beyond a single month of on-chain data. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% Smart Money Moves Against The Crowd Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $1.5 billion over five trading sessions, capping the stretch with a single-day inflow of $458 million — one of the strongest readings this quarter. Retail is leaving crypto at the fastest pace since October. During the same time, 17 of the top 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders added more to their positions. Institutions now control roughly 12% of the total supply. This divergence shows they are here for a different reason… pic.twitter.com/ZiUFoG2WQZ — Zac Townsend (@ztownsend) March 3, 2026 That buying came as Bitcoin traded in the mid-$60,000 range, well off the October peak of $126,200 that triggered a broad retail exit. Data from analyst Zac Townsend shows retail traders have been dumping BTC at a fast clip since that high. Yet the biggest institutional players went the other direction, quietly stacking more. The gap between those two groups is stark. It reflects a split in confidence that analysts say often appears before major price moves — though the direction of any move is never guaranteed. ???? Over the past month, Long Term Holders added 212,000 BTC. pic.twitter.com/lr9Zfe4TtI — Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) March 3, 2026 Long-Term Holders Accumulate $14B Worth Of Bitcoin On-chain data tracked by CryptoQuant tells a similar story from a different angle. Bitcoin’s long-term holders — wallets that have sat on their coins for at least 150 days — added 212,000 BTC over the past 30 days. At current prices, that haul is worth more than $14 billion. CryptoQuant verified author J.A. Maartunn flagged the trend in a post Tuesday, pointing to the platform’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric. The tool measures whether this class of holders is buying or selling over any given 30-day window. A reading above zero signals accumulation. Below zero means they’re distributing. For most of 2025, that metric sat in negative territory. Long-term holders were selling — heavily. Reports indicate the shift began as Bitcoin retested multi-year price lows and selling pressure started to ease. That’s when buyers in this category came back in force. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away What Comes Next Bitcoin dipped to around $60,000 on February 6, extending a roughly 15% pullback that shook out weaker hands and rattled short-term traders. The drop appears to have worked as a magnet for buyers with longer time horizons. Accumulation by large holders has historically been read as a bullish signal. When sustained buying from this group builds up, it tends to tighten available supply, which can set the stage for upward price pressure. Whether that dynamic plays out here depends on broader market conditions — macro sentiment, regulatory developments, and demand from new buyers all factor in. Featured image from Bitpanda, chart from TradingView

Ray Dalio cast fresh doubt on Bitcoin’s claim to safe-haven status on Tuesday, arguing that the asset still falls short of gold on privacy, institutional suitability and market structure. In a March 3 appearance on the All-In podcast, the billionaire hedge fund founder said those weaknesses help explain why Bitcoin has not behaved like gold during the current macro cycle. Asked why Bitcoin has lagged while gold has surged, Dalio pointed first to surveillance and control. “Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled,” he said. He then drew a line from that feature to state-level adoption. “Central banks are not going to want to buy bitcoin and be able to hold it. So, it’s not just individuals, it’s institutions and so on, but most, you know, and central banks.” That matters because Dalio’s broader framework in the interview was built around debt stress, monetary debasement and the search for what he sees as politically neutral reserve assets. In that setup, gold remains the benchmark. He described it not as a speculative commodity, but as “the most established money” and “the second largest reserve currency that central banks hold,” arguing that its role is rooted in transferability, scarcity and the fact that it is not someone else’s liability. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads Bitcoin, in Dalio’s telling, still looks different. Beyond privacy, he flagged technological uncertainty and the nature of its investor base. “There have been some questions or thoughts of the development of new technologies like quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that,” he said. “And then there’s who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio? It tends to have a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks.” That last point goes to Dalio’s bigger criticism: Bitcoin may be treated as an alternative monetary asset in theory, but in practice it still trades like a risk asset. “If somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something, whatever else they have,” he said, arguing that Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics are shaped by cross-portfolio stress in a way golds are not. He also called it “a relatively small market” and, for that reason, “a relatively controllable market.” Ray Dalio SLAMS Bitcoin!! “Bitcoin does not have privacy.” “Central banks are not gonna wanna buy Bitcoin.” “Quantum computing” “Who owns it?” What do you think? pic.twitter.com/NdleeHR5lB — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 3, 2026 Bitcoin Community Reacts The remarks quickly drew pushback from Bitcoin advocates on X, where the debate centered less on Dalio’s macro framing than on whether he was underestimating Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Investor Vijay Boyapati argued that Dalio “doesn’t fully understand why central banks own gold,” saying those holdings exist partly as protection against the possibility that gold competes with sovereign currencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Selling Cools: Is Months-Long Distribution Finally Ending? “Once Bitcoin achieves the same scale as gold (it will over time based on its significant comparative advantages over gold) central banks will be forced to own it for the same reason they own golf. Without ownership their national currency becomes vulnerable to a speculative attack from Bitcoin,” he added. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan took a more market-oriented angle: “Some hear criticism; I hear opportunity. These are the reasons bitcoin is 4% of the size of gold. If these critiques did not exist, bitcoin would already be ~$750,000/coin. I invest in bitcoin in part because I am confident these things will change over time.” Abra CEO Bill Barhydt argued that Bitcoin’s volatility and smaller float are features of a younger monetary asset, not proof of failure, while also disputing the severity of Dalio’s quantum concerns. I’d like to address this conversation between two people I greatly admire (@friedberg and @RayDalio) as both fellow libertarians and macro experts i try to learn from. The conversation in the video is about bitcoin but I’ve extended it to be about bitcoin vs gold. Note that… https://t.co/atznXiMdTy — Bill Barhydt (@billbar) March 3, 2026 Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox, meanwhile, responded with a one-line jab: “I’m looking forward to Ray Dalio finding out about Zcash.” At press time, BTC traded at $69,660. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s current price trajectory has left a lot to be desired, with the most concern currently being for when the digital asset will hit a bottom. There have been countless predictions since the decline began, and yet, Bitcoin remains below $70,000. Nevertheless, it has not stopped the barrage of bottom calls and price predictions. One of these was shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who took to using historical data and performance to track how low the BTC price will probably drop before reversing upward. Bitcoin Price Could Still Crash To $50,000 In the analysis , Crypto Patel pointed to previous bear markets and how far the Bitcoin price had crashed each time before recovering. The first of these was the 2018 bear market, when the Bitcoin price had crashed 85% after hitting an all-time high of $19,000. Once the crash was over and the bottom was established, though, the Bitcoin price would go on to record a 350% rally. Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Next on the list was the 2019 crash that had triggered a 70% Bitcoin crash. This was a continuation of the bear market trend that had begun back in 2018, as profit-taking was the order of the day. However, just like before, this bleed would eventually end, and what followed was a 1,500% rally that would see the Bitcoin price reach new all-time highs. It eventually peaked at $69,000 in 2021 before crashing again. Following the 2021 bull market, the year 2022 would kickstart the next bear run for the digital asset. With the collapse of crypto giants such as Celsius and the FTX crypto exchange, the Bitcoin price witnessed a 78% crash. But once again, after hitting a bottom and accumulation ramped up, the BTC price would eventually rise 750% to cross $100,000 in the next few years, and eventually hit its most recent all-time high of $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Using this trend, the crypto analyst outlines that it is possible that the Bitcoin price will drop further to $50,000, to complete a 50% price drop. However, despite the bearish prediction, Crypto Patel predicts that the BTC price is eventually headed for $220,000, which would be an over 300% increase from $50,000. Fully taking the historical performance into account, though, it shows that with each bear trend, the Bitcoin price has fallen an average of 70% each time. Using this, it is likely that the digital asset’s price will crash below $40,000, eventually finding support around $37,000, if history were to repeat itself. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have seen their netflow rise recently, a sign that selling pressure from diamond hands is easing. Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change Is Becoming Less Negative In a new post on X, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has talked about the latest trend in the behavior of Bitcoin LTHs. This cohort represents one of the two main divisions of the BTC market done on the basis of holding time and includes the investors who purchased their tokens more than 155 days ago. Related Reading: Solana’s Next Major Support Levels Sit At $50, $22, And $10: Analyst Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs with their long holding times are considered to reflect the resolute side of the sector. Though, despite the resilience of this group, its members still participate in selling during some parts of the cycle. One such phase is currently ongoing, as the chart shared by Beamish shows. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change, an indicator tracking the monthly net amount of BTC entering into or exiting out of the group’s combined balance, turned negative as the cryptocurrency’s price saw a bearish shift in the last quarter of 2025. Since then, the indicator has mostly stayed contained inside the zone, implying continued distribution from the diamond hands. From the chart, it’s apparent that the selloff only deepened as BTC crashed to its low around $60,000 last month, implying that the volatility scared even some of the more resolute hands into parting with their tokens. Since the negative peak in the indicator coinciding with the price lows, however, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has been climbing back up. Today, its value is still red, suggesting continued selling pressure on the monthly timeframe, although the degree of it is notably lower. “After months of sustained net selling, LTH net position change is now easing, suggesting that selling pressure from seasoned holders is moderating as BTC stabilizes,” noted the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change will continue to improve in the near future or if the diamond hands aren’t done selling yet. Related Reading: XRP Triangle Could Point To Support Between $0.60 And $0.90 In some other news, each attempt from the cryptocurrency at the $70,000 level has been met with profit-taking recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted in an X post. As is visible in the graph, the 12-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss spiked above $5 million per hour as BTC rallied on Monday. The metric crossing this threshold also capped out previous recovery attempts from the asset during the past month. “The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure,” said Glassnode. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a minor retrace to $68,500 since the Monday high. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

MARA Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies in the world, has signaled a major shift in strategy that could have significant implications for the broader BTC market.  In a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company disclosed an update to its treasury policy that would allow it to sell Bitcoin from its balance sheet — a notable departure from its long-standing commitment to holding the asset as a long-term investment. Bitcoin Miner MARA May Sell Reserves Under the new policy, MARA is no longer strictly committed to retaining all of the Bitcoin it mines. Instead, it has opened the door to potentially liquidating part or even all of its holdings if circumstances require it. MARA currently holds 53,822 BTC, making it the second-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net.  At current market prices, the company’s reserves are valued at approximately $3.59 billion. Only Michael Saylor’s Strategy — formerly known as MicroStrategy — holds more, with over 720,000 BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge In its filing, MARA acknowledged that prolonged weakness in Bitcoin’s price could materially affect its financial position. If the price remains depressed or declines further, the value of its holdings could fall significantly, weighing on its balance sheet and liquidity.  Because Bitcoin mining represents the company’s primary source of revenue, extended price declines could make it increasingly difficult to cover operational costs, meet debt obligations, or fund strategic initiatives. The company also pointed to upcoming financial obligations, including the potential need to repurchase outstanding convertible senior notes in 2027. Meeting such obligations would require substantial cash resources.  Under those circumstances — including liquidity pressures or adverse market conditions — MARA said it may decide to sell a portion or the entirety of its Bitcoin reserves. Potential ‘Supply Bomb’ Looms  Market analyst Shanaka Anslem offered a detailed breakdown of the company’s current challenges. According to Anslem, MARA’s production cost now stands at approximately $87,000 per Bitcoin, while the asset is trading around $66,690.  That gap means the company is effectively losing money on each block it mines. At the same time, hashprice — a key measure of mining profitability — has dropped to a record low of $35 per petahash. Anslem also highlighted MARA’s 2025 open-market purchases. During that year, the company acquired 4,267 BTC at an average price of $111,034 per coin. With current prices significantly lower, those purchases are now roughly 38% underwater.  Related Reading: CME Capitalizes On ADA, XLM, LINK In Crypto Strategy: Key Figures Exposed Looking ahead, Anslem suggested that blockchain data will provide critical clues about whether MARA’s policy shift translates into actual selling.  If the company’s wallets show no meaningful outflows over the next 90 days, he argued, the announcement may amount to little more than optional flexibility, and the perceived supply overhang could prove illusory.  However, if substantial transfers begin — particularly in a market environment characterized by a Fear and Greed Index reading of 15 and Bitcoin already down 22% year-to-date — the psychological and price impact could be significant. In that scenario, other miners with large treasuries might also come under scrutiny, creating what he described as a potential “supply bomb” effect. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the recent Bitcoin dip is being read very differently inside institutional circles than it is on crypto social media. In a March 2 interview with Scott Melker, Hougan said many professional allocators that missed the first leg of ETF-driven adoption are now treating lower prices as an opening, not a warning sign. Bitcoin Dip Draws Rush From Institutional Buyers The clearest example was a prospective client Hougan said had been in discussions with Bitwise for roughly two years before finally committing $11 million. For Hougan, that was less a story about sudden conviction than about how institutions actually move. “The average Bitwise client takes eight meetings before they allocate, which is brutal. But they meet quarterly. We’re about two years into the ETF boom. So they’re just now getting ready to allocate.” Bitcoin Insider Reveals Why Institutions Are Scrambling To Buy The Dip! | @Matt_Hougan pic.twitter.com/KUKndfw0mP — The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) March 2, 2026 That lag, he argued, is being mistaken for hesitation when it is often just an institutional process. “They’re not surprised that crypto is volatile,” Hougan said. “Like, wow, crypto is volatile, right? They’ve been waiting for an entry point.” He highlighted that spot ETFs saw net inflows during sharp down weeks, which he took as evidence that institutions remain “the marginal buyer” and are likely to keep entering the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge Hougan drew a distinction between crypto-native sentiment and the way wealth managers, RIAs and larger institutions frame the asset. Retail, he said, has slipped into a full bear-market mindset, pointing to the crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 5. But institutions are operating on a different clock. “These people are making allocations for the next five or 10 years,” he said. “Even if you talk to the most bearish, despairing person on crypto Twitter and you ask them where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, they’re going to be pretty bullish.” That helps explain why falling prices are not necessarily slowing adoption. In many cases, Hougan said, advisors first buy Bitcoin personally, hold it for about a year, then begin allocating to a small group of clients before scaling up. “Typically what they do is they take their first 10 clients who have been asking them relentlessly about crypto for the last 10 years and they allocate on their behalf,” he said. “The big game comes when they go from 10 to 100.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says The distribution channels are also opening wider. Hougan said that, as of Q4, three of the four major wire houses can now proactively discuss Bitcoin with clients, while the fourth is expected to follow. Still, he estimated that roughly 20% to 25% of wealth managers remain closed to crypto exposure, underscoring that institutional access is still being rolled out rather than fully saturated. For Hougan, that is why the market may be underestimating what comes next. “Eventually Bitcoin ETFs, I think, will at some point have a trillion dollars of assets in them,” he said. “They’re not going to go down from here. It just takes time.” He was equally emphatic that this cycle feels different from prior drawdowns. “In previous bear markets, in FTX, the bear market felt existential,” Hougan said. “This winter doesn’t feel like that. Most people look at this as an attractive entry point. They don’t see death and despair. They see the world getting more digital, they see rising concern about fiat currency, they see a four-year cycle that would naturally mean we have a pullback.” If that view holds, the current drawdown may matter less as a test of conviction than as a transfer point: from fast-moving retail traders to slower, deeper pools of capital that are still early in their allocation process. At press time, BTC traded at $66,360. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,500 but failed at $70,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $68,000 support. The price is trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,000 and $66,550 levels. Bitcoin Price Corrects Lower From $70,000 Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,400 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,100, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below $68,000, and the price tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,030 swing low to the $70,100 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,400, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at $68,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $69,550 level. A close above the $69,550 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,850 and $71,200. Downside Break In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,400 level. The first major support is near the $66,550 level. The next support is now near the $65,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,700 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,400, followed by $66,550. Major Resistance Levels – $68,800 and $70,000.

Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened volatility as escalating conflicts in the Middle East inject fresh uncertainty into global markets. Risk assets have reacted unevenly, with crypto trading as a real-time barometer of macro stress while traditional markets intermittently close or gap. Price swings have become sharper, liquidity thinner, and short-term positioning more defensive as participants reassess exposure amid geopolitical risk. Related Reading: Bloodbath Or Buy-Zone? Bitcoin’s $66K Stagnation Hits The 25% Loss Threshold Historically Tied To Market Bottoms Despite this challenging backdrop, on-chain data presents a more nuanced picture. According to analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin netflow dynamics suggest that accumulation may be quietly unfolding beneath the surface. Exchange netflows — which measure the balance between coins moving onto and off trading platforms — are often a leading indicator of investor intent. Sustained outflows typically imply that participants are withdrawing assets into cold storage or long-term custody, reducing immediately available sell-side supply. In recent sessions, netflow patterns have tilted toward outflows rather than aggressive inflows, even as headlines intensified. This divergence between price uncertainty and subdued exchange deposits hints at restrained distribution behavior. Sustained Exchange Outflows Signal Quiet Accumulation Phase The exchange-level data adds a concrete dimension to the accumulation thesis. On Binance — which custodies roughly 665,000 BTC, or about 25% of total exchange reserves — netflows have flipped decisively negative since February 21. Outflows have dominated on most trading days, producing a cumulative withdrawal of approximately 13,500 BTC. A single session accounted for 3,848 BTC leaving the platform, a meaningful movement in the context of tightening liquidity. Importantly, this pattern is not isolated. Aggregated across major exchanges, netflows have remained negative for seven consecutive days. Such persistence reduces the probability of statistical noise and instead suggests coordinated positioning behavior. When coins exit exchanges, they typically move into cold storage or long-term custody solutions, mechanically reducing the immediately tradable supply. This shift is occurring after an approximate 50% correction from cycle highs. Historically, deep retracements tend to recalibrate risk-reward perceptions. The current price zone appears to be viewed by some participants as strategically attractive rather than structurally broken. That said, accumulation does not guarantee immediate upside. In the short term, sustained outflows can underpin range-bound conditions as supply tightens, but demand remains measured. Whether this evolves into expansion depends on the durability of inflows into spot markets. Related Reading: The $650M Wave: Why XRP’s Record Inflow To Binance Signals A Massive Institutional Retreat Bitcoin Compresses Below Key Averages as $69K Caps Upside Attempts On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains locked in a corrective structure following the sharp early-February breakdown. Price is consolidating around the $66,800 region, but the broader short-term trend remains tilted to the downside. BTC continues to trade below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward — a configuration that confirms persistent bearish pressure. The $68,000–$69,000 zone is acting as immediate resistance, aligning with the 100-period moving average (green). Multiple attempts to reclaim this level have failed, reinforcing it as a supply area. Above that, the 200-period moving average (red), currently near the low-$70Ks, represents a stronger structural ceiling. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand On the downside, the $63,000–$64,000 region remains key support. Previous liquidity wicks into that area, triggering sharp rebounds, suggesting the presence of reactive buyers. However, the pattern of lower highs within the range indicates that upside momentum lacks conviction. Volume has contracted compared to the breakdown phase, signaling equilibrium rather than accumulation. The market is compressing within a narrowing band, often a precursor to expansion. A decisive 4-hour close above $69K would challenge the bearish bias. Conversely, a clean break below $63K would likely reopen downside toward the next liquidity pocket. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

War is burning across the Middle East. Oil prices are climbing. Stock markets in Asia have taken a hit. And yet, Bitcoin is still standing above $66,000 — a fact that has caught the attention of analysts keeping a close eye on the market. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Calm Where There Should Be Panic The group most closely watched during moments of market stress is what analysts call short-term holders — people who bought Bitcoin recently and are most likely to sell fast when things go wrong. Based on reports from on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, that group has stayed unusually quiet. When Bitcoin slipped into the $63,000 to $64,000 range on Feb. 28, exchange inflows from recent buyers barely moved. No major wave of selling followed. No spike in coins being rushed to exchanges at a loss. That was not the case earlier in February. Reports say that on Feb. 5-6, short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24-hour window. It was a clear panic event. Since then, those kinds of loss-driven transfers have been falling steadily — and the Iran escalation did not reverse that trend. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who tracked the data, says this matters because markets tend to find their footing once the most nervous sellers have already exited. If exchange inflows from short-term holders remain low, it could point to seller exhaustion and set the stage for a price recovery. A sudden jump in those inflows, however, would suggest the selling is not done. What History Says About War And Bitcoin This is not the first time Bitcoin has been tested by armed conflict. According to market analyst Ted Pillows, the pattern has played out twice before. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin dropped — then surged 40%. When Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin dipped again before gaining 25%. Feb 2022: Russia attacked Ukraine. ▫️ $BTC dumped first and then rallied 40%. June 2025: Israel attacked Iran. ▫️ Bitcoin dumped first and then rallied 25%. Feb 2026: US attacked Iran. Will a similar pattern follow again? pic.twitter.com/b8FLF4aR9p — Ted (@TedPillows) February 28, 2026 Now, following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin has once again pulled back. Pillows is now asking whether that same rebound pattern could follow a third time. The current conflict is far larger than those earlier flashpoints. Reports say US-Israeli forces struck more than 2,000 targets across 131 Iranian cities and provinces, hitting nuclear sites, missile systems, and senior military figures, including Iran’s Supreme Leader. Related Reading: Wall Street Giant JPMorgan Sees Clarity Act Driving Second-Half Upside Bitcoin Price Action Iran fired back with missiles and drones aimed at Israel, US bases, and multiple Gulf states. The war has dragged in Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Cyprus, and a UK military base. Bitcoin has dropped 3.5% since Feb. 26, bringing its price to $65,540. It briefly touched $63,030 on Feb. 28 before climbing back above $65,000. Given the scale of what is happening on the ground, that kind of price movement is relatively contained. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Joe Burnett, VP of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), is arguing that bitcoin could reach $11 million by the first quarter of 2036, not because it replaces the financial system, but because it becomes the dominant long-duration savings asset in an economy reshaped by AI-led deflation and repeated monetary expansion. His thesis, laid out in a March 2 Substack note, frames bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as the asset most likely to absorb excess liquidity in a world of falling production costs and chronic policy intervention. Burnett’s base case implies a bitcoin network value of roughly $230 trillion by 2036. He sets that against a global financial asset base that he estimates could grow from more than $1 quadrillion today to about $1.97 quadrillion over the next decade, assuming 7% annual compounding. In that framework, bitcoin would account for around 12% of global financial assets. “That outcome reflects a measured repricing of global wealth toward the only monetary asset with absolute scarcity,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin does not need to replace all currencies. It does not need universal daily transactional use. It only needs to become the primary long-duration savings asset in a world defined by monetary expansion and technology deflation.” The Bitcoin 2036 AI-Deflation Thesis At the center of the argument is what Burnett calls the “AI deflation engine.” His view is that artificial intelligence will compress labor costs, speed up output and intensify competition across both digital and physical industries, creating sustained downward pressure on prices. He compares the shift to the automobile’s displacement of horses, but argues that this time the target is white-collar labor. AI, he wrote, is already drafting contracts, analyzing financials, writing code and handling research once performed by junior professionals, while robotics continue pushing into logistics, manufacturing and agriculture. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge In a neutral monetary system, he argues, that kind of productivity boom would simply raise real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiat system, it becomes destabilizing. Falling wages, weaker asset prices and fixed nominal liabilities do not mix well. “As AI drives real-economy deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI becomes at reducing costs, the more aggressive the monetary response becomes to prevent debt deflation.” That policy reflex is the bridge to bitcoin. Burnett argues that every deflationary shock begins with a move into cash and sovereign bonds, but that phase tends to give way to rate cuts, balance-sheet expansion, credit support and fiscal transfers. He points to earlier episodes in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as evidence that policymakers do not tolerate sustained deflation. In his telling, the long-run result is persistent productivity deflation paired with persistent monetary expansion, a mix that leaves capital searching for an asset whose supply cannot be politically expanded. From there, Burnett widens the lens. Equities, in his view, are increasingly exposed to AI-driven creative destruction. Real estate retains scarcity value, but technology could accelerate design, permitting and construction, limiting long-run upside. Sovereign bonds, meanwhile, offer nominal stability while remaining tied to currencies subject to ongoing dilution. Bitcoin, he argues, sits in a different category because its supply cap, divisibility, portability and verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorb global liquidity over time. He also ties that thesis to a newer market structure he calls “Digital Credit” — income-generating securities backed by large bitcoin balance sheets. Burnett cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA as examples of vehicles that offer dollar income to credit investors while channeling capital into additional bitcoin accumulation. That, he argues, could create a reflexive loop between global yield demand and bitcoin buying. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says The note leans heavily on scarcity math. Burnett writes that by 2036, fewer than 41,000 new BTC will be issued over the entire year. If global financial assets reach roughly $2 quadrillion and only 1% of one year’s incremental capital formation seeks monetary preservation in bitcoin, that would still amount to $1.4 trillion competing for that limited new supply — or roughly $34 million of demand per newly issued coin. “The path will not be smooth, but the conclusion will become increasingly obvious,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin’s trajectory toward eight-figure price levels reflects structural monetary conditions rather than speculative enthusiasm and ‘belief.’ As liquidity continues expanding within a technologically deflationary world, capital will concentrate into assets capable of preserving value across time.” His closing point is less about straight-line appreciation than timing. Markets, he argues, still price bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. The next decade, in his view, will increasingly price it as monetary infrastructure. Whether that transition plays out anywhere near his $11 million target, Burnett’s thesis is clear: if AI keeps driving abundance and policymakers keep offsetting it with liquidity, bitcoin may be where a growing share of global capital ends up. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,958. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market appears to be entering a decisive holding phase, with on-chain data signaling a steady contraction in active supply.  Rather than aggressive selling or speculative rotation, a growing portion of circulating BTC is moving into long-term storage, reducing the amount readily available for trading. This tightening liquidity dynamic reflects rising investor conviction, as holders choose accumulation over distribution. How Volatility Compression Tightens Bitcoin’s Range In a recent post on X, Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, noted that the Bitcoin 30-Day active supply has dropped sharply in recent weeks, which is a clear signal that fewer BTC have moved across the network over the past month. Due to this BTC drop, active participation has decreased, and the market has become quieter, with fewer units changing hands in the short to medium term. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Turbulent Ride: How BTC’s Price Has Fared With Escalating Mid-East Conflicts Wedson explains that when this 30-day active supply indicator spikes higher, it typically reflects that short-term holders and retail investors are experiencing strong emotions. The high peaks in the 30-day active supply often coincide with strong retail moments driven by euphoria or panic. This is when more coins return to circulation, whether driven by FOMO during rallies or capitulation during sharp corrections. Thus, when the indicator declines downward, it generally signals the volatility compression, low supply rotation, and market participants appear more patient. In simple terms, the high 30-day active supply would show emotion, rotation, and active retail engagement.  Meanwhile, the low 30-day active supply would show apathy, holding behavior, and tighter market structural conditions. This 30-day active supply is an excellent metric for capturing the market’s monthly behavioral pulse. BTC Enters A Decision Level With Statistical Significance The Bitcoin price action is approaching its next pivot on the 3rd, a level that has historically produced meaningful reactions. According to a crypto trader known as LP on X, reviewing the last eight pivot occurrences, five have resulted in local lows. Statistically, that move gives the current Low-Time Frame (LTF) pivot a slight tendency to form a bottom, but the context matters. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Explodes Higher, $70K Level Faces Fresh Bullish Assault However, if the price sells off into a pivot, the probability of it acting as the local low increases. Then, if the price rallies into the pivot, the odds would shift toward marking a local high. Over the past several days, the price has been volatile but generally has been grinding higher into the upcoming pivot, slightly increasing the risk of a level that could form a high. Historically, reactions from this pivot have led to moves in the 7% and 9% range, suggesting that whichever direction is confirmed could result in a meaningful expansion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Iran war jitters attack once more, knocking investors out of risk assets and dragging the broader crypto market into the red. Bitcoin’s slide has kicked back in after a short-lived push above 70,000 dollars with BTC slipping about 2.3% into the high‑60,000s dollars. Bitcoin: A Snapshot Of The Uncertainty In Numbers For weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to hold above $70,000: on Monday it briefly pushed above 70,000 dollars, only to reverse and drop as much as 2.3% to 67,834 dollars in early European trading, before stabilizing around 68,100 dollars by 8:10 a.m. in London. This comes after a rejection near the $90k–$100k region in late 2025, lining up with US and Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and fears around a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered classic risk‑off flows across crypto and other assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Line Of Fire: Price Dips To $63k As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran A Broader Sentiment However concerning this may be for an asset known as the “digital gold”, this is not just a BTC issue. Ethereum, Solana and the rest of the large‑cap complex traded lower alongside it, confirming this as a broad risk‑off move. This seems to indicate that the risk of a prolonged war involving Iran is weighing on global risk appetite, and crypto appears to be trading firmly as a high‑beta risk asset. Investors continue to rotate into classic havens such as gold while selling crypto. This reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is still closely tied to broader risk sentiment during geopolitical unrest and not necessarily benefitting from it. Related Reading: How The Israel-Iran War Could Shake Crypto Prices, Explains Arthur Hayes It should be noted that, as Bloomberg reports, the Iran situation also feeds into fears of higher oil prices and stickier inflation. This could keep interest rates elevated for longer and further pressure speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. What Traders Are Watching For Traders appear to be trading headline to headline for now. For short‑term holders who bought into strength above 70,000 dollars, every hawkish Fed comment or fresh Iran escalation keeps their entries underwater and raises the odds they’ll be forced to cut at a loss, especially if Bitcoin makes a clean move toward the 60,000 dollar “line in the sand.” For long‑term holders, however, sitting on older, deeply profitable coins, the same headlines are more an exercise in patience than survival. A deeper sweep into the low‑60,000s would hurt mark‑to‑market, but it is still well inside a multi‑year profit zone and historically has been where these players either sit tight or quietly add. Once again, the numbers prove that the market is just as fragile as human’s fears. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

A technical analyst known as ‘V’ has shared a striking Elliott Wave Theory-based Bitcoin price outlook on X that he believes most market participants are completely overlooking. The chart, plotted on Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe, outlines a multi-year roadmap that could first subject the cryptocurrency to significant downside pressure, potentially triggering a price crash to $40,000 before setting the stage for an explosive rally that could shock investors and traders.   Elliott Wave Pattern Points to $40,000 Bitcoin Price Dip V’s analysis on X begins by identifying a completed five-wave structure that carried Bitcoin from its 2022 lows to an early 2025 peak around $109,354. Those waves, clearly labeled 1 through 5 on the chart, mark the end of Bitcoin’s first major impulse move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time From here, V projects that Bitcoin could now enter a Wave 2 correction, which could take the form of a classic ABC zigzag pattern. In this projected scenario, Wave A is forecasted to bottom somewhere between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, triggering a Bitcoin price decline to the $51,000 to $62,000 range.  Following this, Wave B is expected to see a small relief bounce, pushing Bitcoin back up toward the 100% to 132% extension zone between $109,354 to $120,594 on the chart. Once this bounce occurs, V predicts a final downside target in Wave C. He forecasts that the Bitcoin price could decline to the $51,336 to $35,564 range, representing a massive 55% to 69% decrease from the previous bounce area.  Notably, V has stated that Bitcoin’s projected move to its final bearish target could catch the majority of investors and traders completely off guard. This is because a relief rally back towards six figures in Wave B would likely restore investor confidence and draw buyers back in, only for the market to decline all over again to an even steeper target. In other words, it could be a bull trap. The Bitcoin End Game That Could Shock Investors Following the anticipated completion of the Wave 2 correction, V predicts the onset of Wave 3, a phase that could trigger a powerful bullish reversal for Bitcoin. The chart illustrates a projected rally, highlighted by a rising arrow. Bitcoin is expected to retest and reclaim its previous resistance level around $109,354, marking a potential gain of more than 207% from its projected Wave C bottom around $35,564.  Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Once BTC crosses this resistance with strong momentum, the chart projects a stronger upward push toward a shocking $150,000 target. Notably, the last time Bitcoin was remotely close to this level was in October 2025, when its price skyrocketed to new all-time highs above $126,000. If the V’s Elliott Wave forecast plays out as expected, it would mark a new historic ATH for BTC. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is tightening its range at a critical support zone, with price action compressing after weeks of sideways movement. As volatility contracts and momentum build beneath key resistance, the market appears to be preparing for a decisive breakout. With major support holding for now, the stage is set for a significant move.  Consolidation Zone Signals Strategic Accumulation Crypto analyst Donald Dean highlights that Bitcoin is currently in a prime position for consolidation and accumulation. Currently, price action continues to respect a crucial support trendline, with steady buying activity occurring near the $69,000 mark. This persistent behavior suggests the market is building a solid floor, allowing investors to accumulate positions before the next significant move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows From a technical perspective, this $69,000 zone represents a formidable area of support and a retest of the major breakout in 2024. Dean views this phase as a healthy development for the long-term trajectory of the asset. Once the multi-year support is confirmed, Bitcoin would essentially create a launchpad that will serve as the base for a sustained move toward higher valuations. Looking at the weekly chart, Dean identifies specific upside targets based on volume and Fibonacci extensions. The first objective is the $90,000 volume shelf, which acts as a magnet for price. Beyond that, the Golden Ratio (1.618 extension) suggests a target of $102,000. Once these levels are cleared, the next major challenge involves a move to $122,000, which would represent a 2x increase from the previous low-to-high cycle. However, the long-term outlook remains even more ambitious if the bullish momentum persists. Furthermore, Dean notes that the subsequent Golden Ratio at the 2.618 extension places the target at approximately $155,000. While these figures represent significant milestones, the current focus remains on the successful defense of the $69,000 level to validate the structural integrity of the ongoing bull market. Weeks Of Sideways Movement, No Clear Bitcoin Breakout In a recent update, Crypto Candy emphasized that Bitcoin remains stuck in an extended consolidation phase, trading within the $60,000 to $70,000 range for weeks. Despite multiple attempts to break out, the price continues to rotate within this zone, signaling ongoing indecision between buyers and sellers. Related Reading: No Rebound For Bitcoin Yet — Short-Term BTC Holders Continue Holding At A Loss After briefly dipping toward the $62,000 area, BTC once again rebounded toward $70,000. However, this rebound does not alter the broader range structure. Without a decisive breakout, these moves are viewed as internal rotations rather than the start of a sustained trend.  For now, Crypto Candy maintains a bearish bias unless Bitcoin can convincingly flip the $71,000–$72,000 resistance zone into support. As long as the price stays below that threshold, the expectation remains for another leg down toward $61,000 or potentially lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has returned to an extreme technical zone that has historically marked major cycle bottoms for the BTC price. According to crypto analyst @DurdenBTC, the Harmonic Oscillator has now printed its lowest possible reading, a level that previously preceded outsized one-year gains. The signal raises a direct question: Does history imply that Bitcoin is positioned to double from here? Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator Signals BTC Price Could More Than Double A chart shared by the analyst highlights a striking signal for Bitcoin, showing the Harmonic Oscillator at -100, the lowest point on its long-term decaying price range, which spans from -100 to +100. This “Capitulation” zone marks periods when BTC trades far below its harmonic center and historical equilibrium, signaling extreme market pessimism. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Historically, every time the oscillator has hit this level—late 2011, early 2015, late 2018, March 2020, and late 2022—Bitcoin reached major cycle lows before entering strong upward trends. The chart quantifies this pattern, showing a median one-year return of +135% from the capitulation zone, with a 100% success rate across all recorded signals. For traders, this suggests that the BTC price could more than double over the next year if history repeats itself. The chart also contrasts other zones in the oscillator, illustrating the model’s cyclical reliability: the “Undervalued” zone historically produced +77% median returns, “Equilibrium” and “Overheated” zones delivered smaller gains, and the “Euphoria” band at the top often led to negative returns. In essence, the chart emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current capitulation reading may mark a rare opportunity for a major rally. By connecting extreme market lows with historically consistent gains, the oscillator provides traders a clear framework for anticipating BTC’s next potential cycle. Bearish Trend Model Meets A Generational Buy Signal Although the oscillator has a strong historical record, @DurdenBTC notes that his broader trend system currently leans bearish. This creates a tension between momentum-based trend signals and the oscillator, which indicates extreme undervaluation. The oscillator works on a damped harmonic model, where price moves around a rising long-term center line while volatility gradually compresses. Related Reading: XRP Daily Liquidity Is Pointing To A Rally To $4, Analyst Explains What’s Going On The chart shows Bitcoin trading below its harmonic center and fair value, with a negative deviation reinforcing the capitulation signal. A 90-day inset highlights a sharp drop to this lower boundary. Meanwhile, the two-year fair value estimate remains well above the current price, showing a significant gap between current levels and the modeled equilibrium. The oscillator also shows that cycle energy has reset to lower levels, similar to previous macro bottoms. Historically, these resets marked the shift from decline into accumulation phases. This does not mean price will immediately reverse, but statistically, readings like this have marked generational buying opportunities. While the analyst maintains a cautious stance aligned with the bearish trend, the -100 oscillator reading represents one of the most asymmetric setups in Bitcoin’s cycle history. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Amonyx recently drew attention to a CNBC video in which XRP was described as the hottest crypto trader of the year, ahead of Bitcoin and Ethereum. This comes as the XRP ETFs continue to see inflows even as other crypto funds see outflows.  Why The Altcoin Is The Top Trade Over Bitcoin and Ethereum In an X post, Amonyx shared the CNBC video in which XRP was described as the top trade ahead of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The analyst then questioned whether the market was seeing something or about to. CNBC’s Mackenzie Sigalos noted that the token was already gaining a lot of attention towards the end of last year, with investors piling into the XRP ETFs while the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows.  Related Reading: What Happens To The XRP Price If It Follows The Amazon Trend And Begins Parabola She further stated that these investors likely saw XRP as a less crowded trade than Bitcoin and Ethereum as crypto prices declined in the fourth quarter of last year. Sigalos added that this trade had paid off, considering that the altcoin recorded a 20% gain at the start of the year. Meanwhile, she also touched on XRP’s use case and why it might be gaining so much attention.  The CNBC news host noted that XRP and Solana are the two most popular altcoins right now and that XRP has gained prominence for its utility in cross-border payments. Sigalos also suggested that XRP, alongside Solana, may have an edge over Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of having more room to rally to the upside.  Regarding blockchain adoption, she noted that users and investors may be turning to cheaper, faster networks like Solana over Bitcoin and Ethereum, especially for payments and tokenization. The XRP Ledger is also gaining traction for tokenization, recently surpassing Solana in terms of tokenized value on the network, according to RWA.xyz.  XRP ETFs Continue To See Inflows SoSoValue data shows that the XRP ETFs continue to see daily net inflows even as the crypto market wavers. These funds are currently on a five-day streak of consecutive net inflows and have notably only seen six days of outflows since the start of the year. They currently boast net assets of $1.02 billion, which represents 1.20% of XRP’s market cap. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP’s $15 Target Has Still Not Changed – Here’s Why However, the XRP funds recorded lower inflows than the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana funds last week. A CoinShares report revealed that the XRP funds saw weekly flows of $1.9 million last week. On the other hand, the BTC, ETH, and SOL funds recorded weekly flows of $881.5 million, $116.9 million, and $53.8 million.  At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.36, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com