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Fidelity Digital Assets argues Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted enough that the familiar four-year boom-bust pattern and the brutal 80% drawdowns that often followed, may no longer be the default outcome. In a Feb. 24 research note titled “Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?” research analyst Zack Wainwright frames the call around a simple observation: Bitcoin is now a very different-sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs Bitcoin’s market cap at an all-time high of roughly $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, alongside signs of deeper liquidity and a steadier volatility regime than prior cycles. “As bitcoin matures, price behavior is diverging from previous cycles. Volatility decreasing even as price reached new highs above $126,000.” Bitcoin Demand Is Being Re-Shaped Fidelity’s volatility argument leans on one-year realized volatility and how it behaved around cycle peaks. In prior cycles, the pattern was broadly consistent: volatility would compress into new lows ahead of a major upside move toward new highs, then expand as the cycle overheated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says This time, Fidelity says the compression is arriving sooner after the peak. The note points to 17 new all-time lows in one-year realized volatility logged in January 2026—just months after Bitcoin notched fresh all-time highs in October 2025—calling it a meaningful divergence from the cadence of earlier cycles. The team attributes part of that dampening to scale: Bitcoin is about twice the market cap it was at the 2021 peak, roughly 10x 2017’s peak, and over 200x 2013’s. The second pillar is who is holding supply, and how sticky that demand appears. Fidelity highlights a cohort of 49 public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC each, with combined holdings above 1 million BTC, over 5% of circulating supply. It also notes that, since Q1 2020, this group increased holdings quarter-over-quarter in every quarter except Q2 2022, when Tesla sold a large portion of its position. On the ETF side, Fidelity writes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC as of Jan. 30, 2026, about 6.4% of circulating supply. The note adds that the category leader surpassed $75 billion in assets under management in under two years, contrasting that pace with gold’s flagship ETF, GLD, which took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. Together, Fidelity says public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of circulating supply, with most of the growth coming after 2023—a demand shift the team views as structurally important for drawdowns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases Fidelity also argues the cycle has looked “notably stable” across several on-chain and issuance-linked measures. Using a profit-window framework, when addresses in profit first exceed 95% through the last time they remain above 95%, the note says MVRV has stayed roughly around two times realized value through most of the bull market, rather than spiking toward four-to-six times as in earlier cycles. The report flags a counterfactual to illustrate the point: if market cap reached four times realized cap in this cycle, it would imply roughly a $4.5 trillion market cap and about $225,000 per BTC as of Feb. 2, 2026. It also notes the Puell Multiple has stayed close to one, signaling daily issuance value hasn’t meaningfully deviated from its one-year average. Fidelity’s new “Profit to Volatility Ratio” is where the drawdown claim becomes explicit. The team sets 0.01 as a stability line and says the ratio has stayed above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained period at those levels in Bitcoin’s history. Even with a February 2026 downturn that pushed BTC below $70,000, the ratio remained above the threshold. “A measurement above 0.01 can be considered very stable. Conversely, a measurement below 0.01 should be viewed with caution.” The implication, Fidelity suggests, is not that volatility disappears—but that the classic cycle-ending wipeouts may be less likely in a market increasingly shaped by institutional channels and a larger, more liquid base. If that regime holds, the next phase could look less like a blow-off top and more like a slower, more methodical repricing, higher over time, but with fewer cliff-edge resets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,677. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Expert trader Tony Severino, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s top, has raised the possibility of a crash to $4,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to break key resistance levels, signaling that it could be at risk of a deeper decline.  Expert Trader Raises Potential Bitcoin Drop To $4,000 In an X post, Tony Severino questioned the possibility that the next Bitcoin bull market is a lower high followed by a lower low. His accompanying chart showed BTC may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could spark a crash to $4,000. As such, he urged market participants to play the range and cycles.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 5TH Wave Is Not Over Yet, And Price Could Still Crash To $52,000; Analyst Warns When asked about a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, the expert trader said it’s more speculative because the idea of a bottom can change over time. However, he noted that BTC is bottoming now on shorter timeframes and that on the longest timeframes, it could still take a while.  Severino also recently stated that he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, implying a bottom at around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $40,000 before it finds a bottom. Notably, BTC continues to struggle, suggesting it remains at risk of a deeper decline despite the recent relief rally to $70,000.  In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold. The platform added that this pattern is consistent with a thin-liquidity regime, in which even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.  How BTC Could Drop To $30,000 In This Bear Market Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market between 2009 and 2026. He warned that if the global macro breaks down, then the $30,000 level is the fallback level of support. The analyst highlighted $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? However, Willy Woo believes $45,000 would be a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that this bearish sell-off by investors appears to have been exhausted, which may allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month and possibly rebound to the mid $70,000 range. However, this level would likely be rejected.  The analyst explained that this is because the broader regime is heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Willy Woo predicts that Q4 would be a good time for the end of the bearish trend and that Q1 or Q2 2027 would be an appropriate time for bullish momentum to return.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

It has been a rough stretch for Bitcoin. Prices have been pinned between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks, and a brief dip below $67,000 on Thursday did little to ease investor nerves. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin The Poor Man’s Hedge Against Inflation? Coinbase CEO Thinks So Now, a handful of analysts are saying the worst of the selling may finally be over — though what comes next is far from exciting. No Crash, No Boom — Just Patience Crypto analyst Willy Woo put it plainly on X. The wave of bearish selling by investors “seems to have exhausted,” he said, giving Bitcoin some breathing room to trade flat for the next few weeks. A small bounce toward the mid-$70,000 range is possible. But Woo was clear — that kind of move would almost certainly be pushed back down before it gains any real footing. His best guess for when the bearish trend actually ends is Q4 2026. A genuine bull run, he said, probably won’t return until Q1 or Q2 of 2027. This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected. This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE — Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026 The wait, in other words, is measured in quarters — not weeks. Woo also flagged something that doesn’t show up in Bitcoin’s price chart. Both spot and futures market liquidity are deteriorating at the same time. That combination, he said, has never historically produced a real Bitcoin rally. Until one or both of those conditions improve, any upward movement is likely to be temporary. Why Did Bitcoin Drop In The First Place? Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan had a straightforward answer to that question. Forget the theories about market manipulation or fears over quantum computing breaking crypto encryption. According to Hougan, the explanation is simple — people who owned Bitcoin sold it. Some followed the four-year market cycle. Others cashed out to fund investments in AI companies. Some had no particular reason beyond wanting out. “They are mostly done selling, and we are in the process of bottoming,” he wrote on X. The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else. The real reason bitcoin is down is that a… — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 26, 2026 Spring Will Come New all-time highs will come, he added. “This is a classic crypto winter, and there will be a classic crypto spring.” Related Reading: Aave Crosses $1 Trillion In Loans — No Bank Required For now, Woo’s analysis offers the most grounded take on where things stand. The selling has slowed. The market is catching its breath. But with liquidity still weak and no clear catalyst on the horizon, Bitcoin’s path forward looks less like a comeback and more like a long, quiet wait — one that, by his own estimate, won’t end until the final months of 2026 at the earliest. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Following the Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 in early February, the question on the lips of every investor is when the bleed will end. To this end, a number of analysts have shared their expectations and predictions for where the Bitcoin bottom might be. Some have posited that the worst is over, while others have suggested that there are still more crashes to come. Following the latter trend, crypto analyst Plan C has shared why they believe the Bitcoin price has finally reached a bottom. Bitcoin 80-90% Crash Not Possible This Time Around In previous cycles, when the Bitcoin market had gone from a bull run to a bear market, there have been varying degrees of crashes that were experienced before the bottom was established. Over the last few bear markets, these have been around 80-90% crashes, often spurred by major events surrounding the market. Following this trend, expectations remain that Bitcoin might also see a similar crash, which would mean that the bear market is far from over. However, crypto analyst Plan C has combated this idea, as he believes that bitcoin will not repeat the exact same trend seen before. Related Reading: XRP Price Turns Completely Bearish, But Is A Crash To $1 Still Possible? Instead of the 80-90% crash that is expected to put Bitcoin somewhere around the $25,000-$30,000 range, the analyst says that Bitcoin will only crash 50-60% this cycle. If this is correct, it would mean that Bitcoin is not far from registering a bottom at this point. Going by this, his forecast, this would put the Bitcoin price bottom somewhere between $50,000 and $63,000. Given that the BTC price had previously fallen below $63,000, it means that the bottom might be in, or close to it. Such a deviation would mean that Bitcoin would no longer be following the established 4-year cycle trend. This is not a new theory, as analysts in the past have suggested that the digital asset began deviating from the 4-year cycle when it hit a new all-time high back in early 2024, before the halving. This was triggered by institutional entry through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, bringing about a new wave of bull runs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lows: Analyst Says We’re Doomed If This Happen While predictions continue to fly around the crypto community and speculations about what price Bitcoin will bottom at, it remains a matter of time to see what eventually happens. For now, the bulls continue to put up a fight in a bid to send the price above $70,000 again. But sentiment remains firmly negative as the Fear & Greed Index continues to sit in Extreme Fear. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is finding near-term relief after a sharp rebound toward the $70,000 level, offering temporary optimism following weeks of sustained pressure. The move has improved short-term momentum and eased immediate downside risk. However, the broader market remains characterized by indecision, as many analysts argue that this advance may represent a relief rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the start of a renewed bull phase. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, while price has recovered meaningfully from recent lows, underlying derivatives data suggest caution. Open Interest has fallen significantly from prior cycle highs, reflecting an extensive deleveraging process across futures markets. Importantly, the recent price decline occurred alongside contracting Open Interest, indicating that forced liquidations and derivatives-driven position unwinds were primary drivers of the selloff rather than sustained spot distribution. Such resets can be constructive, as they reduce excessive leverage and stabilize funding conditions. Nonetheless, a cleaner derivatives landscape does not automatically translate into fresh structural demand. Without clear evidence of renewed capital inflows or expanding spot participation, the current rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed volatility. Muted Exchange Flows Suggest Stabilization, Not Yet Structural Strength Recent exchange flow data adds nuance to Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Binance’s Fund Flow Ratio remains subdued near 0.012, indicating that inflows relative to total BTC reserves on the platform are limited. In practical terms, this suggests that immediate sell-side pressure has not intensified, even during the recent move toward the mid-$60K region. The absence of a spike in this metric implies that investors are not rushing to transfer coins to exchanges in panic, which typically accompanies more aggressive distribution phases. However, low inflows should not automatically be interpreted as accumulation. The medium-term trend in the ratio’s moving averages continues to drift downward, indicating that sustained structural demand has yet to reassert itself. Markets can stabilize without transitioning directly into expansion, particularly when liquidity conditions remain cautious. Additional context from derivatives positioning reinforces this ambiguity. With leverage still relatively compressed, upward price movements can disproportionately trigger short liquidations, generating rallies driven more by position unwinds than fresh capital deployment. This type of rebound often improves sentiment temporarily but may lack durability without stronger spot participation. Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from active selling toward stabilization. Confirmation of a genuine bullish reversal will likely require consistent inflows, improving liquidity, and clearer evidence of renewed investor demand. Related Reading: How Vitalik Buterin’s 11,422 ETH Liquidation Is Testing Ethereum’s Bear Market Absorption – Details Bitcoin Tests Support After Sharp Correction Bitcoin remains under pressure following a pronounced correction from its recent highs, with price currently stabilizing near the $68,000 region. The weekly structure shows a clear loss of upward momentum after rejection around the $110K–$120K zone, followed by a decisive breakdown below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This shift typically signals weakening intermediate trend strength rather than simple short-term volatility. Price is now hovering close to the 200-week moving average, historically a critical structural support during transitional market phases. Holding this level could help stabilize sentiment and potentially define a medium-term floor. However, a sustained breakdown below it would likely increase downside risk, as it would confirm deterioration in long-term trend structure. Related Reading: The $33 Billion Drain: Bitcoin Realized Cap Craters as Capital Abandons the Network for a Second Month Volume dynamics also warrant attention. The recent selloff occurred with elevated activity compared with preceding consolidation phases, suggesting that distribution — not merely thin liquidity — contributed to the decline. That said, volume has started to moderate as price consolidates, indicating reduced urgency among sellers. Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a defensive consolidation phase. Recovery above the shorter moving averages would be required to restore bullish momentum, while failure to hold current support could extend the corrective cycle further. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,000. BTC is now consolidating above $66,250 and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,200 support. The price is trading above $67,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,250 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips To Support Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $68,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,000 level. There is also a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $68,250 level. A close above the $68,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,500 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,000 level. The first major support is near the $66,250 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $65,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,000, followed by $66,500. Major Resistance Levels – $68,000 and $68,500.

SUI has repeatedly tested key support, but every breakdown attempt has been aggressively absorbed. Instead of accelerating lower, the price has stabilized and begun to compress, a classic sign of underlying demand. With volatility tightening and pressure building, the question now is whether this absorption phase is setting the stage for a powerful upside expansion. SUI Re-Enters the Spotlight at $0.9884 A fresh analysis from Altcoinpedia highlighted that SUI is trading around $0.9884, with accelerating ecosystem metrics bringing the high-performance network back into focus among traders and builders. Its strong transaction throughput remains a core advantage, allowing applications to scale efficiently without congestion while maintaining low latency for users. Related Reading: SUI Drops Below $1 Despite Launch of First U.S. Staking ETFs by Grayscale and Canary Developer activity continues to expand, with new DeFi protocols, gaming projects, and consumer applications launching to leverage SUI’s object-centric architecture. Liquidity across ecosystem-based decentralized exchanges has grown steadily, signaling meaningful participation rather than short-term speculation. At the same time, broader institutional access is creating regulated exposure pathways, while on-chain data shows increasing wallet growth and consistent network utilization, which are clear signs of genuine traction. The conversation around SUI is shifting from early potential to proven execution. Markets tend to reward ecosystems where technical performance aligns with usability, and that alignment is becoming increasingly visible. With price consolidating near zones that historically attract strategic accumulation, the overall structure appears constructive. As liquidity deepens, developer momentum strengthens, and institutional awareness expands, the foundation for a larger move continues to build. The key elements for expansion are in place, and with breakout energy forming, the broader market may soon begin to reflect that progress. Volatility Expansion, But Breakdowns Absorbed SUI’s price against Bitcoin tapped 0.00001351, and the reaction was immediate. According to crypto analyst Umair Crypto, volatility expanded sharply, yet every attempt to close below that level failed. Each breakdown was met with absorption, resulting in roughly 2 days and 8 hours of tight consolidation, with 14 consecutive candles holding right at support. That kind of behavior signals active defense, not randomness. Related Reading: SUI Slides Into Key Fib Support — Is the Downtrend Far From Over? Now, price is beginning to push higher, but confirmation is still required. The next major trigger comes from the BTC pair. Sustained closes above 0.00001372 would break the RSI trendline and signal a potential structural shift in momentum. If that breakout materializes, it could lead to the USDT pair reclaiming the 50 SMA, a recovery of the black box resistance zone, activation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a measured move targeting approximately $0.96. Until the BTC pair decisively breaks structure, the USDT pair remains constrained, trading near range lows and below the 50 SMA. In this setup, the BTC pair dictates direction, and the USDT pair follows. Featured image from YouTube, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin spot trading activity has fallen to its weakest level of the year even as a fresh CryptoQuant signal suggests one important pocket of selling pressure may be starting to fade. Darkfost, a contributor at CryptoQuant, said February is on pace to finish as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot volumes since the start of 2024. He tied that slowdown to a broader retreat in risk appetite as traders pull back from directional exposure and wait for firmer macro or technical confirmation. “February is on track to close as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot trading volumes since the beginning of 2024. This comes alongside BTC’s price revisiting levels last seen in 2024 as well,” Darkfost wrote on X. “The current climate of uncertainty surrounding BTC has pushed investors toward a more defensive stance, resulting in a marked reduction in risk-taking.” Bitcoin Liquidity Keeps Thinning Out The scale of the slowdown is visible across the major venues. Darkfost said Binance still leads by a wide margin with nearly $75 billion in February spot volume, ahead of Gate.io at $25 billion and Bybit at $20 billion. Even so, that dominance has not insulated Binance from the broader contraction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high in October, monthly spot volumes have been roughly cut in half across the largest exchanges, according to the post. Binance fell from $198 billion to $75 billion, Gate.io from $53 billion to $25 billion, and Bybit from $41 billion to $20 billion. Rather than an exchange-specific issue, Darkfost framed the move as a market-wide pullback in participation. He also linked the deterioration in liquidity to the aftermath of the Oct. 10 shock, when open interest dropped by more than 70,000 BTC, or roughly $8 billion, in a sharp reset of leveraged exposure. In his telling, that event did not just hit derivatives positioning. It appears to have accelerated a broader disengagement from crypto trading activity. “This phase of disengagement is directly reflected in the steady decline in spot trading volumes observed across major exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. “This dynamic points to a generalized trend affecting all major exchanges.” That matters because spot flows tend to carry more weight when traders are looking for evidence of durable demand rather than fast-moving leverage. A recovery built on stronger spot participation generally looks sturdier than one driven mainly by derivatives. Coinbase Pressure Shows Signs Of Easing Against that weak backdrop, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to a more constructive short-term signal: “Selling pressure on Coinbase is easing.” The chart shows the Coinbase Premium Index moving back into positive territory after spending most of the time in February below zero (with a few exceptions). By the latest reading on the chart, the premium had recovered to roughly 0.006 while Bitcoin traded near $68,300. This suggests the discount on Coinbase relative to offshore venues has narrowed, easing one sign of US-led sell pressure. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says That does not contradict Darkfost’s broader caution. If anything, the two signals fit together. Spot liquidity remains thin and the market is still operating in a low-conviction environment, but one of the more closely watched measures of immediate selling intensity is no longer deteriorating. Darkfost was explicit about what would need to change for the picture to improve in a more meaningful way. “As it stands, this simultaneous contraction in spot volumes reflects a structurally cautious market phase, where participants prioritize capital preservation over directional exposure while awaiting clearer macroeconomic or technical signals. For a bullish recovery to materialize, or for a durable bottom to form, stronger spot volume support will be essential.” For now, that leaves Bitcoin in a familiar late-cycle holding pattern: sellers may be backing off on Coinbase, but without a broader return of spot demand, the market still lacks the depth that usually underpins a stronger move. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,153. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is now inching towards $70,000, but there is enough to worry about around $64,000. Crypto analyst Tara expressed concern that Bitcoin’s fifth wave may not be complete, with a prediction that further downside could still be ahead.  In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that the current move could either be the start or the final stretch of a fifth wave decline, and there’s still a possibility of the Bitcoin price falling to as low as $52,000. Double Bottom Support At $59,900 And $60,500 Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Tara shows that Bitcoin has built a major support around the $59,900 to $60,500 range. This area is based on prior swing lows and a visible double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick price chart. It also coincides with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels projected from above $70,000. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? According to the analyst, Bitcoin could see a strong reaction if the price were to fall to that region. A bounce from this support could drive the Bitcoin price back to $64,400, which would then be tested as resistance instead of support. However, such a rebound may only be temporary. If the macro fifth wave structure continues to play out, the market could still be setting up for one final push lower after that retest. According to Tara’s wave interpretation, this final push lower could extend to as low as $52,000.  This level is not yet fixed and will be remeasured as price action develops, but it represents a possible completion zone for the broader fifth wave. It is important to note that Bitcoin actually managed to hold above $60,000 throughout February, so therefore, the outlook to $52,000 is a worst-case scenario. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour timeframe is trending lower and approaching oversold territory. Tara advised traders to watch for bullish divergence on the RSI during the next drop. A bullish divergence on the RSI could be the first sign of the end of the corrective structure. Bitcoin Might Register Higher Support At $64,000 Over the past few weeks, the $64,000 region has stood out as a decisive pivot for Bitcoin, repeatedly flipping between support and resistance depending on the direction of price. In a separate update, Tara highlighted that Bitcoin recently backtested the macro 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64,400 as resistance before attempting to push higher. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Reclaiming $64,000 would be an important step toward reversing the current bearish macro trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,220, up 4% over the past 24 hours. Even so, there is still a risk of a pullback.  A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the short-term recovery and could expose the prior swing low at $60,500. On the flip side, bullish momentum would be confirmed if Bitcoin breaks above $70,000. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted how Ethereum is still undervalued on the MVRV, while Bitcoin and XRP have turned neutral. Profitability Has Shifted For Bitcoin, XRP, & Ethereum After The Price Jump In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about how the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has changed for some major digital assets following the market recovery that has occurred over the past day. The MVRV Ratio is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the market cap of an asset against its Realized Cap, a measure of the total amount of capital that investors have put into the network. Related Reading: Cardano Sharks & Whales Quietly Accumulate 819M ADA Amid Price Decline In short, what the MVRV Ratio tells us about is the profit-loss status of addresses on the blockchain as a whole. When the metric is above the 1 mark, it means investors are, on average, in a state of unrealized profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold suggests the dominance of losses. Here, the MVRV Ratio of the entire network isn’t of relevance, but that of a particular slice of it: the buyers from the past month. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the cohort’s MVRV Ratio for the five top cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, and Chainlink. From the graph, it’s visible that the 30-day MVRV Ratio has risen for all five of these assets recently. This is a natural result of the price recovery that has taken place over the past day. Bitcoin has returned above $68,000, and Ethereum is back beyond $2,000. While prices across the market have surged, the MVRV Ratio isn’t reflecting a uniform situation. Bitcoin, XRP, and Chainlink are all inside the neutral zone with the metric sitting at -1.4%, -0.1%, and +3.3%, respectively (note that the 0% mark corresponds to the 1 level here). Meanwhile, Ethereum has seen its 30-day trader returns remain inside a zone that the analytics firm defines as corresponding to a “mildly undervalued” status, despite the fact that the coin’s price has surged 6% in the last 24 hours. Though with an MVRV Ratio of -5.5%, ETH is only just inside the area. On the other end of the spectrum is Cardano, which has observed the indicator fly to a value of +6.8%, entering into the “mildly overvalued” zone. Generally, the larger the investor profits get, the more likely they are to participate in profit-taking. Due to this reason, a high value on the MVRV Ratio can be a sign that a correction could be coming. Similarly, a low value suggests the presence of a high degree of market pain, which could result in a bottom formation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “Buy and dollar cost average when a coin is in an ‘Undervalued’ zone,” explained Santiment. “Be cautious when a coin reaches an ‘Overvalued’ zone.” ETH Price Ethereum briefly broke above $2,100 during its surge, but the coin has since witnessed a minor retrace to $2,070. Featured image from Dall-E, chat from TradingView.com

A prominent market commentator has projected that the Bitcoin price could climb as high as $500,000, citing the reappearance of a long-observed moving average ribbon pattern on the monthly chart. The forecast, shared by Egrag Crypto on X, ties price structure to specific time windows in 2026 and 2028, arguing that technical alignment is outweighing short-term market narratives.pl Bitcoin Price Ribbon Setup Signals Expansion Phase At the center of the $500,000 prediction is the reformation of a multi-layer moving average ribbon on the one-month timeframe. The chart provided by the analyst shows the 33 EMA, 66 MA, 80 EMA, and 100 EMA compressing and beginning to expand in a configuration that has historically marked major cycle transitions. Related Reading: Pundit Gives Reasons Why XRP Price Will Hit $10 In 2026 This structure is not presented in isolation. In previous cycles, similar ribbon compressions were followed by decisive impulsive advances. The analyst points to an earlier period on the chart when the price consolidated within the ribbon before accelerating sharply upward, forming a pattern that now appears to be repeating. Because this setup mirrors prior cycle behavior, he characterizes it as a fractal, indicating structural similarity across different market phases. The ribbon’s position relative to current price action reinforces the broader thesis. Bitcoin remains structurally above the layered averages, a condition that in earlier cycles preceded sustained upside rather than distribution. When price reclaimed and held above this cluster in the past, expansion phases followed. Based on those historical expansion multiples, the analyst outlines an intermediate target near $150,000 and extends the upper boundary of the move toward $500,000. This framework deliberately shifts focus away from sentiment-driven fluctuations. Instead, the moving averages are treated as objective markers of where Bitcoin stands within its long-term cycle, forming the analytical foundation for the half-million-dollar projection. Timing Window Points To 2026 And Late 2028 Alignment Building on the structural case, the forecast also incorporates a defined timeline. The chart highlights October 2026 as a key waypoint, aligning with a potential continuation phase if the emerging ribbon fractal develops in line with historical precedent. Beyond that initial window, a second period is identified around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2028. The analyst references election cycles as a contextual factor, suggesting that macro narrative and technical structure could converge during that timeframe. Related Reading: The Multi-Year XRP Bull Market That Could Change Everything Forever The projected path on the chart reflects this staged process. Rather than a single vertical surge, it outlines a series of consolidations followed by accelerations, echoing previous cycles before peak expansion. By integrating price structure with calendar timing, the projection frames the $500,000 target as the culmination of a repeatable cyclical pattern. In this context, the ribbon fractal is positioned not as speculative optimism, but as the structural roadmap underpinning the analyst’s expectation of a potential surge toward half a million dollars. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades. Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin? Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers. “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.” The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.” That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand. “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress. The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Other Experts Agree Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.” That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry. Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.” Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin climbed to $69,550 on Wednesday, its highest point in over a week, after a sharp swing upward from around $62,350 in less than a day. The move came as US stock markets turned green again, giving investors across the board a reason to buy back in. Related Reading: Crypto’s Biggest Bull Run Could Come From The Most Unexpected Place: AI Bubble ETF Cash Returns After Five Weeks Of Outflows One of the clearest signs of renewed confidence came from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund market. Reports say US-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $257.7 million in a single day on Tuesday — a notable turnaround after five straight weeks of withdrawals that had drained roughly close to $4 billion from those same funds. Fidelity drew approximately $83 million of that total. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted close to $79 million. The return of institutional buying added fuel to a rally already building on the back of a calmer macro backdrop. The broader stock market’s recovery was partly tied to US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night, in which he described his first year in office as an economic success. He pointed to falling mortgage rates and a 1.7% drop in core inflation over the final three months of 2025. Markets took the speech as a sign that the policy chaos seen in recent months — particularly around tariffs and court battles — might be settling down. Spot Buyers, Not Speculators, Are Behind This Rally What makes this price move stand out is the data beneath the surface. Reports note that Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest — a measure of outstanding futures positions — has actually been declining even as prices climbed. It fell from above 240,000 BTC earlier in the week to around 235,167 BTC. That kind of drop suggests traders with borrowed money were closing out positions rather than opening new ones. Funding rates tell a similar story. They remain slightly negative at around -0.0037%, meaning short sellers are currently paying fees to traders betting on higher prices. That is an unusual setup during a strong rally, and it points to a market where aggressive speculation has been squeezed out rather than amplified. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Ticking Upward The cumulative volume delta — which tracks whether buyers or sellers are more aggressive on spot markets — has been ticking upward, confirming that real purchasing activity is driving the move. According to market experts, options market dynamics are also playing a role. Dealers holding what is known as a positive gamma position tend to buy when prices dip and sell when prices rise, as part of routine hedging. That behavior acts as a natural shock absorber, smoothing out big swings and making explosive breakouts harder to sustain in either direction. Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price action over the last few months has been unpredictable. But one thing has been clear, and that is the fact that bears have remained firmly in control of the price action. From here, there are a number of ways that the Bitcoin price could play out, with most speculations pointing toward a possible recovery. However, there are levels that the Bitcoin price must maintain in order to actualize this recovery or risk losing ground to bears. Bitcoin Price Needs To Hold Above $60,000 Crypto Analyst Swallow Academy, in a recent analysis, showed that the $60,000 level has become one of the most important support points for the Bitcoin price. This is because this was the lowest point of the early February crash, suggesting that bears may want to retest it again. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu: What Meme Coin Should You Buy For Most Returns In 2026? Given this, it has become imperative that bulls hold this in order to activate another recovery trend. In this case, if bulls are able to successfully defend the price and hold above $60,000, triggering a reclaim of buy-side volume, then a recovery will follow. The analyst predicts that such a recovery would see the Bitcoin price bounce back to the $70,000-$75,000 area. As a result, the major city of liquidity would be wiped out. After this, a downtrend would eventually begin, which would be the natural path for such a trend. However, in the case of bulls failing to hold $60,000 and buy-side pressure fails, then sell-side pressure is expected to rise. This scenario would see the Bitcoin price begin to dip faster than expected and trigger another crash trend, to push it toward new yearly lows. Related Reading: What To Expect For Ripple’s XRP If A Retail Run Were To Happen Swallow Academy’s analysis posits that a break of the local lows would result in another very deep move to lower lows. While this is not entirely bearish, as the price is expected to recover from lows, the chart shows that the Bitcoin price could dip below $44,000 before a local bottom is then established. Currently, Bitcoin bulls have mounted a notable defense above $62,000, suggesting that this is the next level to beat for bears. Alternatively, the previous cycle low lies at $61,354, and a break below this point would be the first time that Bitcoin has done this in history. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a sharp rebound in the Bitcoin price that pushed the digital asset close to the $70,000 level once again. Bitcoin climbed roughly 8% on the day, approaching a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month. The renewed strength was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) advanced 12%, XRP gained 8%, and Solana (SOL) surged 13%, reflecting a wider return of risk appetite across digital assets.  Bitcoin Price Nears $70K As Altcoins Outperform Market experts suggest the bounce may be driven largely by investors stepping in after an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the upward move likely reflects dip-buying activity following the recent selloff.  She added that a decisive move back above $70,000 for the Bitcoin price could alter the broader market narrative, potentially restoring confidence after weeks of pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be In A Price Slump—But Adoption Is In A Bull Market Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. Although demand for cryptocurrencies in the US has softened in recent weeks, it seems that capital is now rotating into altcoins, as evidenced by the gains made by ETH, XRP and SOL, which have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 24 hours.  Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack, noted that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the context of the broader financial system. When liquidity conditions tighten, he said, volatility tends to increase.  In that environment, assets such as Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that were previously driven primarily by momentum. Still, some analysts caution against interpreting the rebound as a definitive turning point.  Is Bitcoin Forming A New Bottom? Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, drew comparisons to the market environment in 2022, when a steep decline was followed by months of sideways consolidation before a sustained recovery eventually took hold.  He observed that after the 2022 Bitcoin price downturn, it took more than a year for the market to regain and surpass prior highs, suggesting patience may be required this time as well. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, offered a nuanced view in his latest Bitcoin price outlook. He argued that the most intense phase of downside pressure is likely already behind the market.  Among the supportive signals he cited were Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average (MA) and realized price, historically important technical levels.  Related Reading: Expert Forecasts $5 Trillions Pouring Into Crypto Post CLARITY Act Passage In addition, more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently underwater, the relative strength index has reached levels often associated with capitulation, and several other on-chain indicators are flashing signs that a bottom may be forming. However, Thorn also warned that even if the worst of the decline has passed, further challenges could lie ahead for the Bitcoin price. He said that market bottoms typically take time to fully develop, and prolonged sideways movement remains a possibility.  A downturn in equities could exert additional pressure on digital assets, and the broader market still appears to lack a strong catalyst to drive sustained upside momentum.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how accumulation from the large Bitcoin entities has remained relatively weak recently. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Has Been Struggling To Break 0.5 In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Accumulation Trend Score for Bitcoin. This on-chain indicator tracks whether BTCinvestors are accumulating or distributing right now. The metric calculates its value by looking at the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors. Additionally, it also accounts for the size of the wallets themselves. This second weighting factor means that larger entities have a stronger influence on the indicator. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means large investors (or a large number of small entities) are accumulating. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this behavior is. On the other hand, the indicator being under 0.5 implies that distribution is the dominant behavior on the network. The extreme point on this side of the scale lies at 0. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has changed over the course of the cycle: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price crash in November saw the Accumulation Trend Score take on a dark purple color. Here, a light yellow shade on the indicator reflects a value close to zero, while a dark purple one to a value near 1. Thus, it would appear that the market reacted with a near-perfect accumulation behavior to the November price lows. While December saw continued accumulation, a shift occurred in January; the price recovery rally was met with distribution as the Accumulation Trend Score turned orange-yellow. The cryptocurrency’s price has plummeted since the onset of this selling pressure. The price crash has been met with some accumulation, but from the chart, it’s visible that the indicator’s color has still only been red. “The Accumulation Trend Score has struggled to push above 0.5 since early February,” noted the analytics firm. While the current value suggests aggressive distribution is no longer happening, it’s not necessarily a sign of a return of demand for Bitcoin, either. As Glassnode explained, the trend reflects “persistently weak accumulation, particularly among larger entities, signalling that meaningful capital has yet to step back in.” It now remains to be seen how long the current neutral market behavior will continue and which way the next shift will lean. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses BTC Price Bitcoin slipped under the $63,000 level on Tuesday, but the market has rebounded since then as the cryptocurrency’s price has returned to $65,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to struggle to push decisively above the $66,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on sentiment across the crypto market. Despite intermittent rebound attempts, momentum remains weak, with buyers showing limited conviction while volatility stays elevated. The broader environment — shaped by cautious liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and restrained risk appetite — has kept Bitcoin locked in a consolidation phase rather than a sustained recovery trend. Related Reading: Why XRP’s 0.16 Leverage Floor Ends The Era Of The Flash Crash – And the Hope for a Quick Recovery Increasingly, Bitcoin is not behaving like “digital gold,” a narrative that dominated market discourse for years. Instead of acting as a defensive asset during periods of economic stress, Bitcoin has recently traded in closer alignment with equity markets, particularly technology stocks. This correlation suggests that capital is treating Bitcoin more as a high-beta risk asset than as a store of value comparable to precious metals. This shift challenges a long-standing thesis within the crypto ecosystem. While the digital gold narrative remains influential, current price behavior indicates that liquidity cycles, institutional positioning, and broader macro risk dynamics are exerting stronger short-term influence. Whether Bitcoin eventually reclaims its perceived safe-haven role or continues behaving like a risk asset will likely depend on evolving macro conditions and investor positioning. Correlation With Nasdaq Highlights Structural Shift According to On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has structurally tightened since 2020, marking a significant shift in how capital allocates to the asset. While earlier cycles showed more episodic alignment, recent data reveals that BTC now frequently trades in tandem with technology equities. Notably, the sharpest correlation spikes have tended to coincide with broader market drawdowns, particularly during bear market phases. This pattern is critical. In theory, an asset positioned as “digital gold” would be expected to decorrelate from risk assets during periods of stress. Instead, the data suggests the opposite: when liquidity contracts and equities sell off, Bitcoin often follows. These synchronized declines indicate that institutional capital increasingly treats BTC as part of the broader risk complex rather than as an independent hedge. Whether this development aligns with ideological expectations is secondary. The reality is that capital flows, portfolio construction frameworks, and macro-driven positioning now play a dominant role in Bitcoin’s price formation. Large allocators appear to manage BTC exposure alongside growth equities, responding to the same liquidity signals, rate expectations, and volatility regimes. Until correlation regimes shift meaningfully, Bitcoin’s behavior is likely to remain closely tied to macro risk cycles rather than to traditional safe-haven dynamics. Related Reading: The $33 Billion Drain: Bitcoin Realized Cap Craters as Capital Abandons the Network for a Second Month Bitcoin Price Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Pressure Bitcoin continues to trade under clear technical pressure, with price action struggling to reclaim the $66,000–$67,000 zone after a sharp corrective move from late-2025 highs. The weekly chart shows a decisive break below the 50-week moving average, followed by rejection near that level, which now acts as dynamic resistance rather than support. This shift typically reflects weakening medium-term momentum. Price is currently hovering just above the 200-week moving average, a level historically associated with major cycle support. While this area often attracts strategic buyers, repeated tests without strong rebounds can weaken its effectiveness. Volume spikes during recent downside moves suggest distribution rather than accumulation, although confirmation would require sustained follow-through. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators Market structure also shows a sequence of lower highs since the peak near the $120K region, indicating that bullish continuation has stalled. Until Bitcoin reclaims the mid-$70K range and stabilizes above key moving averages, rallies may remain corrective rather than trend-reversing. That said, proximity to long-term support means volatility could increase. Either a structural rebound or a deeper capitulation phase remains possible, depending largely on liquidity conditions, macro sentiment, and institutional positioning in the coming weeks. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The crypto markets are sitting in a mood that rarely looks like hope. Fear sits very high, and that kind of fear has traders asking whether the worst is already behind them or still to come. Extreme Fear And Market Signals Reports note the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently hit a low of 11, one of the weakest readings this year. That kind of reading has shown up near big turns before, but it is not a guarantee of an instant rebound. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Some pieces of market data point to deeper stress — consumer credit trouble, weak housing figures, and loan strain — while other parts of the market, especially certain tech sectors, have kept rising. One analyst warns that what looks like calm at the surface may be hiding pressure underneath. Jesse Eckel argues the broader economy has been dragged forward by gains in AI-driven stocks, even though many everyday measures show strain. His view: investors who want exposure to AI’s upside may find it easier to chase smaller crypto tokens than to buy into giant tech firms. AI Speculation Spreads To Smaller Tokens That logic is simple. Big tech stocks are expensive. Smaller crypto projects promise bigger upside for retail traders who want a quick win. Analysts say this pattern could push money into crypto rails when mania returns, and that retail buyers often prefer instruments that feel close at hand and cheap. Yet there is a difference between wanting a bet and finding a solid reason to make one, and that difference matters to outcomes. A Paid Model’s Bold Numbers Some forecasts backing the bullish case come from an AI model accessed by market participants. The model gave numbers that look dramatic: roughly $155,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026 and about $240,000 by 2027. Those figures are treated as directional estimates, not precise promises, and the analyst using the model stressed they should guide thinking rather than dictate it. How This Might Play Out If money does rotate from expensive tech shares into speculative crypto bets, the flow would likely start small and then build as headlines and social chatter amplify the move. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin The Poor Man’s Hedge Against Inflation? Coinbase CEO Thinks So That could lift small tokens first. Big moves often happen after long stretches where few people expect them. But the timing is hard to pin down. Market sentiment can stay negative for a long time even when conditions for a rebound are present. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price started a major increase above $68,000. BTC is now struggling to clear the $70,000 resistance and might correct some gains. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,000 support. The price is trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,500 and $67,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Rallies 10% Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price is now correcting gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,200 level. A close above the $69,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,200 and $72,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,500 level. The first major support is near the $67,200 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $66,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,500, followed by $67,200. Major Resistance Levels – $68,500 and $69,200.

According to a new forecast from an Elliott Wave analyst, the Bitcoin price could be gearing up for more pain as bearish pressures continue to weigh heavily on it. As a final bear market move, the analyst has projected that Bitcoin could crash by more than 14% from its current price near $65,000.  Bitcoin Price Readies For Final Bear Market Plunge Elliott Wave Strategy, a market expert on X who focuses primarily on Elliott Wave structures and analysis, has warned that Bitcoin is entering its final leg down of its current bear market cycle. In his updated post, the analyst declared that BTC’s corrective Wave 4 structure has ended precisely as projected. He summarized the outlook bluntly, stating that the relief phase is finally over and Wave 5 is now in motion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance To Experience Major Crash? Pundit Shares What This Would Mean The accompanying TradingView chart shows Wave 5 beginning at the end of a triangle formation, which marked Wave 4. The projected target for the final wave has been clearly defined, with the first measured move expected to drag Bitcoin’s price down toward the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level at $60,385.  Elliott Wave Strategy has also forecasted a potential market bottom. He expects Bitcoin to decline further to the next bearish target at $55,759, marked by the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Based on the expert’s analysis, BTC’s current structure shows no clear signs of a possible recovery until it completes its correction. As a result, the analyst has urged investors and traders to brace for the potential decline to $55,759, which could wipe out more than 55% of BTC’s value from its ATH levels above $126,000.  A Recap Of Bitcoin’s Wave 4 Performance Based on the wave count displayed on the Elliott Wave Strategy’s chart, Bitcoin has already completed Waves 1 through 4 of a five-wave bearish impulse. The structure shows an earlier price breakdown from above $90,000, slicing through the 0.382 retracement at $90,601 before accelerating below $75,300, which coincided with the 0.5 retracement level. Following this, Bitcoin continued its downward spiral below the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement at $71,689.20, marking the start of the Wave 4 consolidation.  Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 In a previous analysis, Elliott Wave Strategy noted that Bitcoin had already entered its corrective Wave 4 structure as of February 12. He warned that the temporary rally above $71,000 that preceded the onset of Wave 4 should not be mistaken for a new bull market cycle, reinforcing his predominantly bearish stance on BTC.  The now-completed Wave 4 triangle has been capped by descending resistance near $70,000 and supported by a rising trendline around $66,000. Elliott Wave Strategy characterized this trendline as a classic bearish continuation pattern, suggesting further downside pressure for BTC’s already weak price. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a sign of the growing convergence between traditional finance and digital assets, Emirates NBD is reportedly exploring the addition of Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. The development reflects a broader shift in institutional strategy, as major financial institutions increasingly recognize BTC’s potential role in portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and long-term value preservation. Why Emirates NBD Is Exploring Bitcoin Integration Emirates NBD, one of the largest banks in the United Arab Emirates but frequently described as the UAE’s second-largest bank, is actively evaluating whether to add Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. Crypto market commentator MartyParty has mentioned on X that the news stems directly from comments by Maurice Gravier, the Group Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Emirates NBD, during an appearance on CNBC Squawk Box. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees “Most Aggressive” Institutional Selling Ever, Analyst Says Gravier’s key points were viewing BTC as digital gold and framing it primarily as a store of value rather than merely an alternative currency. He noted that Bitcoin has matured significantly, citing its proof-of-work security model, limited supply, and structurally low inflation rate as attributes that enhance its appeal to institutional investors. Furthermore, Gravier has suggested that BTC’s current valuation appears more attractive compared to six months ago, when the price was considered relatively high. According to MartyParty’s summary, the bank has an internet model, and indicates that BTC could reasonably approach the $100,000 range within the next 12 months. However, the projections are still being refined. The Emirates NBD’s bank asset management division reportedly oversees approximately $16 billion in assets, and any potential allocation would be limited in size and used for diversification purposes. Nonetheless, with no final decision or execution, it is still under review amid ongoing market volatility. This consideration has highlighted a growing institutional interest in BTC across traditional finance in the Middle East. How Businesses Are Using BTC Payments At Scale While individuals are focused on Bitcoin dropping to $63,000, with the price down 50% from its high, a major milestone in its underlying network activity last week has largely gone unnoticed. Crypto analyst Fernando Nikolić pointed out that the Lightning Network surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time, reaching approximately $1.17 billion across 5.2 million transactions in November. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The data shows that the average transaction size nearly doubled year-over-year from $118 to $223, indicating that this is not just micropayment experimentation. Nikolić believes that businesses are using it, and exchanges are moving real money through it. In other words, its actual usage as a payment network just hit an all-time high. In his view, both realities can coexist and underscore a broader disconnect between market narratives and underlying network fundamentals. Also, Nikolić noted that the adoption milestone has received relatively little attention because it challenges the dominant bearish storyline surrounding the BTC price action. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Peter Schiff has a number. And he wants everyone to see it. The longtime gold supporter and Bitcoin critic took to social media this week to argue that when Bitcoin’s price is measured in gold rather than dollars, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost more than 66% of its value since hitting its all-time high in November 2021. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The Math Behind Schiff’s Claim To make his case, Schiff reframed the comparison in a way that sidesteps the usual dollar-based charts. Back in November 2021, one Bitcoin could buy roughly 34.5 ounces of gold. Today, that same Bitcoin buys just 12 ounces — a drop of more than 64% in purchasing power relative to the precious metal. The dollar figures tell a similar story, at least from that starting point. According to Schiff, a $10,000 investment in Bitcoin at the November 2021 peak would be worth around $9,100 today. That same $10,000 put into gold over the identical period would have grown to more than $27,000. Gold was trading near $1,770 in late 2021 and has since climbed past $5,000 — a gain of roughly 185%. Bitcoin, by contrast, peaked at $69,000 during that same bull run. It has since pulled back sharply from a high of $126,200 reached in October 2025, and now sits around $63,000. Bitcoin is now down over 66% when priced in gold since its Nov. 2021 peak over four years ago. Putting that into perspective, had you invested $10,000 in Bitcoin back then, it would be worth about $9,100 today. But that same $10,000 invested in gold would be worth over $27,000. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 24, 2026 Bitcoin’s ‘Safe Haven’ Story Gets Complicated For years, Bitcoin was pitched to investors as a modern alternative to gold — scarce, decentralized, and resistant to inflation. The idea was simple: fixed supply would protect wealth the same way gold has for centuries. But recent market behavior has put that story under strain. When economic anxiety rises, many investors have continued to move money into gold rather than Bitcoin. Reports note that Bitcoin has, in several instances, moved more like a high-risk tech stock than a safe haven asset during periods of broader market stress. That pattern has made it harder for Bitcoin to claim the same defensive reputation that gold has built over a much longer history. CNBC crypto commentator Ran Neuner has also weighed in on the subject, saying that the store-of-value case for Bitcoin now faces serious scrutiny. Bitcoin supporters, for their part, push back on the framing. They point out that November 2021 was Bitcoin’s peak — about as unfavorable a starting point for comparison as one could choose. They also point out that the alpha crypto has climbed 320% from its cycle low of $15,000 in November 2023, while gold gained 150% over that same timeframe. For the first time in 12 years, I’m questioning Bitcoin’s thesis. It’s not the drawdown that concerns me; it’s how Bitcoin responded when markets genuinely moved into risk and uncertainty.$BTC evolved from “peer-to-peer cash” into “digital gold.” We fought for ETF approval.… pic.twitter.com/dblggAsanJ — Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) February 16, 2026 Cycles, Not Trends, Say Bitcoin Supporters Reports say Bitcoin advocates cointend the crypto has always moved through boom-and-bust cycles, with steep recoveries typically following major beat-downs. Supply halvings, shifts in available liquidity, and swings in investor sentiment have historically been the impetus to those rebounds. Related Reading: XRP Fell Nearly 70% — Could History Repeat With An 835% Surge? From that view, the current stretch of underperformance against gold is seen as a normal part of Bitcoin’s cycle rather than a permanent reversal. Bitcoin completed a full market cycle last year, and a period of price correction is consistent with its historical behavior. Still, the gap between gold’s steady climb and Bitcoin’s volatile ride has given critics plenty of material. Schiff, who has maintained his skepticism of Bitcoin for well over a decade, shows no sign of changing his position anytime soon. Featured image from Unchained Podcast, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst BitQuant has commented on why market participants are not buying Bitcoin and Ethereum despite the recent lows. This comes amid current market weakness, with the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warning of a deeper decline.  Why Investors Are Not Buying The Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip  In an X post, BitQuant noted that no one, except Saylor’s Strategy, is buying Bitcoin at $65,000 because of reports that the U.S. may attack Iran. He added that if that happens, many believe that BTC will drop to $50,000, which is why they are not buying. Ethereum is expected to drop further if BTC declines.  Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week The analyst noted that these market participants are forgetting that Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $60,000 without any news or headlines, and that they consider this nuance unimportant. As such, he suggested that BTC and Ethereum could still see lower prices, whether or not the U.S. attacks Iran.  However, BitQuant indicated that current prices do not matter in the long-term as Bitcoin and possibly Ethereum are likely to trade higher. He stated that many still don’t understand that BTC is a system and that they only see it as an asset. The analyst added that for many, BTC resembles a football match where they celebrate when there is a goal and leave the stadium when there isn’t. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market are currently facing downside pressure not only due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran but also due to the uncertainty around the Trump tariffs. The U.S. president over the weekend announced plans to hike the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).   BTC Could Still Drop Below $40,000 A CryptoQuant analysis recently suggested that Bitcoin could still drop below $40,000 to around $38,900, which is the long-term holders’ (LTHs) cost basis. The analysis also alluded to historical precedent, noting that each bear market has been characterized by BTC’s price breaking below its cost basis. This triggers a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 The analysis also noted that it is only after this phase that the market has been able to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new highs. Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analysis mentioned that the Coinbase Premium Index shows limited signs of recovery.  The index’s 30-minute simple moving average had briefly crossed above the zero level but failed to maintain the momentum into the new week. CryptoQuant stated that this lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has lost nearly 30% of its value since January. Yet Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is making the case that it remains one of the most powerful tools ordinary people have to fight rising prices. That gap between the pitch and the reality is hard to ignore. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Armstrong laid out his argument in a post on X, and later repeated it at the World Liberty Forum, an event hosted by the family of US President Donald Trump. The logic is straightforward: inflation quietly destroys the purchasing power of cash. Wealthier people protect themselves by moving money into stocks, real estate, and Bitcoin. People without access to those same options get hit hardest and have no way out. Inflation is a regressive tax on the poorest people in society, since they only hold cash. Once people have wealth, they can afford and get access to inflation-resistant asset classes (stocks, bitcoin, real estate, etc). Expanding financial access and opportunities globally to… — Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 23, 2026 A Fair Point, Pushed Too Far? It is a legitimate observation. Economists have made similar arguments for years — that inflation acts like a hidden tax on those with the least. Armstrong is not wrong about the problem. The prescription, though, is harder to defend. Bitcoin does not move like a slow, grinding inflation rate. It can drop 20% in a single week. For someone with no financial cushion, that is not protection. That is exposure to a different kind of loss — one that can happen far faster than any inflation rate ever could. The volatility is not a minor detail. It is the central flaw in the argument. The Law That Could Shift Things The more grounded part of Armstrong’s message involves legislation. The CLARITY Act, currently being debated in Congress, aims to define how digital assets are regulated in the US — which agencies hold authority and under what conditions. US Senator Bernie Moreno said lawmakers are pushing to pass the bill by April. Armstrong, speaking at the forum, called a balanced version of the bill a potential win for crypto firms, banks, and consumers alike. Talks have focused on stablecoins and whether they can offer competitive yields without running into existing banking rules. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $4 Billion As Investors Step Back – Here’s Why Keeping Pace With China Armstrong also raised the stakes internationally. China is advancing a government-backed digital currency that pays interest. His message to US regulators was direct: fall behind on stablecoin policy, and America loses ground in a competition it should be leading. It is a real concern — even if his inflation argument leaves something to be desired. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Coinbase says Bitcoin’s near-term path may hinge on two price zones: roughly $82,000 on the upside and $60,000 on the downside. In a new X post outlining its BTC “practical playbook,” the exchange argues that combining structural support/resistance bands with options gamma exposure sharpens the trading map for whether BTC is more likely to mean-revert, break out, or accelerate lower. The core framework starts with Coinbase’s previously shared heatmap of “real supply and demand levels,” built by aggregating market structure pivot points and volume into price bands. In that setup, the densest support cluster sits near $60,000, while the first dense resistance band sits around $82,000. Coinbase describes those areas as zones where market interest has already been established and where “significant pools of resting liquidity typically gather.” Why Bitcoin Gamma Changes The Read This week’s addition is gamma exposure (GEX), which Coinbase frames as a way to map how options dealers’ hedging flows may either absorb volatility or amplify it. The firm calls the options market a “hidden liquidity provider” and says GEX helps investors decide whether conditions favor range trades or breakout trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs Coinbase explains the mechanism in practical terms: when dealers are long gamma, their hedging tends to lean against price moves; when they are short gamma, hedging can reinforce the move. “In positive gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior often looks like a shock absorber because if BTC rises, dealers sell spot (or sell futures) to stay hedged. If BTC falls, they buy to rebalance. That ‘sell strength / buy weakness’ pattern reduces realized volatility and increases the odds of consolidation and ‘pinning’ around nearby strike clusters.” It then contrasts that with the negative-gamma regime. “In negative gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior can flip into a trend amplifier. Rising BTC prices force hedgers to buy more while falling prices force hedgers to sell more. That ‘buy strength / sell weakness’ loop can turn ordinary breaks into fast repricing and liquidation-style cascades.” After layering GEX onto its pivot map, Coinbase’s conclusion is straightforward but consequential. “$82k remains the first gate to unlock further upside, while $60k appears to be the shelf that must hold to prevent accelerated downside,” the post says. It ties that to a “pronounced negative gamma band” in the $60,000–$70,000 region and “meaningful positive gamma pockets” around $85,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ That combination shapes the regime expectations. Coinbase says downside into $60,000 can accelerate because negative gamma may amplify selling pressure, while upside toward $90,000 may be more prone to grinding and pinning as positive gamma hedging dampens momentum. How Coinbase Frames The Setups The playbook’s scenario analysis reflects that asymmetry. Around $82,000, Coinbase treats first-touch rejection as a credible risk in a dense supply zone, especially without a clear macro catalyst. If BTC fails there, it says mean reversion becomes the higher-probability expression and warns breakout chasers can get trapped. By contrast, a clean break above $82,000 is not defined by a brief spike but by “acceptance” — reclaiming the level, holding it, and using it as support. Coinbase argues that would suggest supply has been absorbed and raise continuation odds into higher liquidity bands, while still acknowledging the positive gamma pocket above could increase chop risk. The $60,000 zone is framed even more carefully. Coinbase says it prefers long exposure only after a reclaim signal if BTC flushes into that area, rather than trying to catch the initial move lower, because negative gamma can make the path “violent and prone to overshooting.” If $60,000 fails and BTC cannot reclaim it, Coinbase says the break could mark another “regime change” where downside extends faster than discretionary dip buyers expect. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $65,026. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto investment funds have now recorded a fifth straight week of net outflows, wiping roughly $4 billion from investor coffers over that span. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red That steady removal of capital has been paired with a sharp fall in trading activity, signaling that many holders are standing on the sidelines rather than buying dips. Trading Volume Hits Multi-Month Low According to a CoinShares report published Monday, crypto funds saw $288 million in net outflows last week, bringing the five-week total to roughly $4 billion. Weekly trading volumes also fell to about $17 billion, the lowest level since mid-2025, highlighting a slowdown in market activity even as prices have recently stabilized. Fewer transactions were recorded across major investment products, reflecting a quieter stretch for the market compared with earlier periods of heavier trading. Regional Flows Paint A Split Picture Reports note the US led withdrawals, while parts of Europe and Canada added fresh money. The US recorded $347 million of outflows, while Europe and Canada together showed net inflows of close to $60 million. Digital asset investment products recorded US$288M in outflows last week.@Bitcoin remains the key proponent of this negative sentiment, seeing US$215M in outflows. @ethereum saw the second largest outflows totalling US$36.5M. Minor inflows were seen in XRP @Ripple (US$3.5M),… pic.twitter.com/HFWIxVAZgO — CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) February 23, 2026 Countries such as Switzerland, Canada, and Germany were among those adding funds. That split shows that not all investors view the market the same way right now. Some see value at lower prices; others are trimming exposure until clearer signs appear. Bitcoin Remains The Main Focus Of Selling Bitcoin accounted for the largest single-asset outflows, with about $215 million removed last week. At the same time, instruments that profit from falling prices received renewed interest, with short-Bitcoin products taking in around $5.5 million. A fair amount of recent liquidations was tied to Bitcoin moves, driven by traders who had large positions and saw prices move against them. Some positions were forced closed. That pushed volatility up in the short term. Ethereum and a handful of other coins also saw money leave, though a few assets attracted small inflows. XRP, Solana, and Chainlink each gained minor sums relative to the overall outflow. These were selective bets rather than broad rotations back into risk assets. Investment managers who moved into specific tokens appeared to be making tactical, not broad, commitments. Sidelined Capital Is Waiting Reports say much of the market’s strength depends on outside cash returning. Right now, many potential buyers are waiting for clearer signals from the macro side — interest rates, big economic reports, and policy hints from regulators. Without sustained buying, price bounces are more likely to be brief technical recoveries than full trend changes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Nears Century Mark, Saylor Hints A Pause More Than A Collapse This is not a market breakdown. It is a pause, according to analysts. Participation has dropped and that creates a fragile environment. If macro sentiment shifts and more buyers step in, flows could reverse quickly. Until then, expect choppy moves, low volume, and a market that reacts strongly to each new piece of news. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure and weakening sentiment keep the market in a fragile state. Price action has remained subdued in recent weeks, with volatility elevated and risk appetite constrained by tightening liquidity conditions and macro uncertainty. The inability to secure sustained acceptance above this psychological threshold has reinforced caution among traders, leaving Bitcoin in what increasingly resembles a defensive phase rather than an early recovery environment. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators According to top analyst Axel Adler, recent on-chain data support this interpretation. Realized capitalization — which measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin based on the last price each coin moved — has declined for the second consecutive month. At the same time, the 3–6 month holder cohort has expanded significantly as coins acquired near cycle highs mature into that category. This dynamic typically reflects post-peak positioning rather than fresh accumulation. The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently sits around -2.26%, indicating sustained capital outflows from the network. Realized Cap peaked near $1.127 trillion in late November 2025 and has since contracted to roughly $1.094 trillion, representing about $33 billion in compression. Until this metric returns decisively to positive territory, evidence of renewed accumulation demand remains limited. HODL Waves Highlight Defensive Market Structure Adler notes that the latest HODL Waves data reinforces the view that Bitcoin remains in a defensive phase rather than active accumulation. The chart shows a sharp expansion in the 3–6 month coin-age cohort, which has risen to approximately 25.9% of the circulating supply. This reflects a growing share of coins last moved between August and November 2025 — a period closely aligned with purchases near the market peak. HODL Waves track the distribution of Bitcoin supply based on how long coins have remained dormant. Expansion of older cohorts generally indicates reduced transactional activity. However, in this case, the data suggests not confident accumulation but rather a “costly hold” environment, where many investors are sitting on underwater positions. The 3–6 month cohort has surged from roughly 19% at the start of February, while the 6–12 month group has also grown to about 20.2%. Meanwhile, short-term coins under one month account for only about 9.3% combined, signaling limited fresh demand entering the market. Combined with declining realized capitalization, the data points toward an aging supply without corresponding capital inflows. Until newer buying activity emerges and the 3–6 month cohort migrates into longer-term holding bands without selling pressure, Bitcoin’s broader market structure is likely to remain defensive rather than decisively bullish. Related Reading: The $45 Million Crypto Hammer: Whale Inflow To Binance Threatens To Shatter XRP’s Recovery Bitcoin Momentum Weakens As Price Tests Key Support Zone Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects clear structural deterioration as price accelerates lower toward the $63,000 region. After failing to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 supply zone earlier in the year, BTC formed a distribution range before breaking decisively below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages. That breakdown triggered a sharp leg down, confirming a shift from consolidation to trend continuation on this timeframe. Currently, price trades well beneath the 50 SMA (~$92,000) and the 100 SMA (~$101,500), both of which have rolled over and now act as overhead resistance. The 200 SMA near the low-$90,000 region also remains far above the current price, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. The alignment of these moving averages — with shorter-term averages below longer-term ones — confirms negative momentum and sustained downside pressure. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion Volume expanded during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than passive drift. The sharp rejection from the mid-$90,000 area, followed by impulsive downside candles, suggests sellers remain in control. From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone becomes the next critical support region. A sustained break below it could open the path toward deeper retracement levels. To stabilize, Bitcoin would need to reclaim at least the $75,000–$80,000 area and rebuild higher highs — a scenario not yet supported by current momentum. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could be approaching a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the 3-day chart. Bitcoin Is Potentially Nearing A Death Cross On The 3-Day Timeframe In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a death cross on Bitcoin’s 3-day price chart. A “death cross” popularly refers to a bearish signal produced by a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) of an asset. Typically, a death cross involves the longer SMA moving above the shorter one. In the context of the current topic, the SMAs of relevance are the 50-day and 200-day versions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the pattern displayed by these two SMAs for the 3-day Bitcoin price. As is visible in the graph, the 50-day SMA of the 3-day Bitcoin price saw a cross under the 200-day SMA in each of the last three cycles. All of these crossovers preceded bearish price action. More specifically, the 2014 crossover led to a drawdown of 52.19% for the asset, the 2018 one to 50.56%, and the 2022 one to 45.91%. Interestingly, these price declines all led to the bottoms of their respective bear markets. “Since 2014, the death cross between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg down of a Bitcoin $BTC bear market,” noted the analyst. Jumping to the present, BTC has faced a bearish shift in recent months with a notable drawdown in its price. This has resulted in the 50-day SMA witnessing a decline toward the 200-day SMA. As a zoomed-in chart shared by Martinez in another X post shows, there is now not much distance left between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs of the 3-day Bitcoin price. If the two lines continue to follow the current trajectories, the analyst has estimated that a death cross could occur on February 27th. Given the past trend, such a death cross could take Bitcoin into its final leg for the bear market. It only remains to be seen, however, whether the current cycle will actually follow a similar pattern or if it will show divergence. Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back In some other news, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has slipped into the loss region recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted in an X post. In the past, a shift toward loss realization on the Bitcoin network has generally lasted for over six months before a return of liquidity has occurred. BTC Price Bitcoin has erased some of its recent recovery over the past couple of days as its price is now trading around $63,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is sitting at a decisive inflection point. After losing key support and pressing into range extremes, the market now faces a clear binary outcome: reclaim the range highs and shift momentum back to the upside, or fail and extend toward new weekly lows. The next move from here will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Bitcoin Tests Range Extremes Currently, Bitcoin is navigating a period of high tension as it tests its range extremes, a phase that analyst Lennaert Snyder notes can feel intimidating for many traders. However, these moments of extreme volatility often serve as the foundation for the highest-quality setups.  Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ The current strategy remains patient, focusing on a Market Structure Break (MSB) as the primary prerequisite for entering a long position. On the H4 timeframe, the specific level to watch is the $66,590 high. Gaining and holding this level would signal a shift in momentum, providing the initial green light for bulls to step in.  While the $66,590 mark is the first hurdle, the true pivot for a structural bullish flip sits at approximately $68,000. This level is of paramount importance because it hosts the Point of Control (POC) for the entire range. Reclaiming this zone would shift the narrative from a defensive to an offensive posture, confirming that buyers have regained control of the value area. If Bitcoin successfully regains the $68,000 level, it opens a clear path to the $71,422 resistance. Beyond that, the ultimate objective for this move would be the massive liquidity cluster sitting at $76,971. Thus, the $68,000 zone is also a critical area for bears as it could become a prime short entry following a confirmed rejection. Conversely, the market must account for the possibility of a bull trap at the lower resistance levels. If Bitcoin sweeps the $66,590 high only to be met with a sharp rejection, it would suggest that the rally was merely a liquidity grab. Such a failure would likely trigger an aggressive short-selling wave, potentially driving the price down to establish new weekly lows. $65,000 Support Lost — Momentum Shifts Lower In a recent update, Ted noted that Bitcoin has now broken below the key $65,000 support zone, shifting short-term momentum back in favor of the bears. Losing this level weakens the immediate structure and opens the door for further downside exploration. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts That said, significant bid liquidity is stacked between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a potential demand pocket. However, whether that zone holds may largely depend on broader market conditions, particularly how the stock market behaves in the coming sessions. Given the current setup, a sweep of the $60K lows appears increasingly likely before any meaningful reversal attempt. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $65,000 and dipped further. BTC is now recovering losses from $62,500 and faces hurdles near the $66,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $65,000 support. The price is trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Recovers Some Ground Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $65,000 support zone. There was a push below $64,000. The price even spiked below $63,000. A low was formed at $62,500, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $65,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,654 swing high to the $62,500 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $66,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $67,200 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,654 swing high to the $62,500 low. A close above the $67,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $68,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $69,200 and $69,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $66,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level. The next support is now near the $64,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $63,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,500, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $66,500 and $67,200.