Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $77,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $76,000 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $77,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $77,000 and $77,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $77,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $77,000 level. There was a move below the $76,500 level. The price even dipped below $76,200. A low was formed at $76,020 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is showing bearish signs below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,018 swing high to the $76,020 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $76,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $78,300 level. A close above the $78,300 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,018 swing high to the $76,020 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $81,200. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,300 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,200 level. The first major support is near the $76,000 level. The next support is now near the $75,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $74,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,000, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $77,000 and $78,300.
Binance Research said a cluster of Bitcoin on-chain indicators is pointing toward tighter available supply and reduced sell pressure, with exchange balances falling to a six-year low as roughly 500,000 BTC have left trading venues since the COVID-era peak. In a May 17 thread, the research arm of Binance argued that four metrics now point in the same direction: long-term holders remain dominant, speculative activity is subdued, exchange supply has declined, and short-term holders are only beginning to rebuild unrealized profits. The combined readout, according to Binance Research, suggests that Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted away from forced selling and toward a more supply-constrained setup. “Four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening and sell pressure is exhausted,” Binance Research wrote. Why Bitcoin Sell Pressure May Be Fading Fast The first signal centers on Bitcoin supply dormancy. Binance Research said nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved in more than a year, compared with 27% in 2012. Dormant supply peaked at 69.5% in January 2024, the same month U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. “Despite the subsequent sell-the-news reaction, supply dormancy has remained near historically elevated levels, suggesting sustained long-term holder conviction,” the firm wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Fall To $78K Could Be A Bear Trap — Here’s Why For market participants, the implication is straightforward: a large portion of Bitcoin’s supply remains in the hands of holders that have shown little willingness to transact, even after major market events. High dormancy does not eliminate downside risk, but it can reduce the amount of supply immediately available to be sold into rallies or volatility spikes. The second metric cited by Binance Research was SLRV, a ratio used to compare shorter-term and longer-term coin activity. The firm said the indicator remains “deep in its historical bottom zone,” which it interpreted as a sign of market apathy rather than overheated speculation. “Long-term holders dominate supply while short-term speculators have largely exited,” Binance Research said. “Historically, every prior cycle bottom coincided with the ratio entering the shaded zone.” That framing is notable because it separates the current setup from periods driven primarily by fast-moving speculative capital. In Binance Research’s reading, the low SLRV level suggests that short-duration market participants have already been flushed out to a significant degree, leaving long-term holders with a larger share of active supply influence. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Crossroads: These Are The Major Factors At Play Exchange balances form the third and most direct supply signal. According to Binance Research, Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen from 17.6% of supply during the COVID-era peak to 15.0% today. The firm said that equates to around 500,000 BTC leaving exchanges, cutting available sell-side supply to a six-year low. That movement matters because coins held on exchanges are generally more liquid and more readily available for sale. A decline in exchange balances does not automatically mean those coins will never return, but it does indicate that less BTC is immediately positioned on trading platforms. In a market where marginal liquidity often drives price action, the shift can sharpen the impact of new demand if selling remains contained. The fourth signal relates to short-term holder profitability. Binance Research said BTC STH MVRV stayed below 1.0 for most of the period since November 2024, a condition it linked to the gradual exhaustion of sell-side pressure. The metric has now moved back above 1.0, meaning short-term holders are again sitting on unrealized gains. “BTC STH MVRV remained below 1.0 for most of the period since November 2024, gradually exhausting sell-side pressure — a dynamic historically consistent with cycle bottoms,” Binance Research wrote. “It has now reclaimed 1.0, marking the point where short-term holders begin rebuilding unrealized gains. With profit accumulation still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to materialize imminently — historically a setup that has preceded sustained recoveries.” At press time, BTC traded at $76,761. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $78,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $76,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $78,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $77,700 and $78,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $78,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $78,000 level. There was a move below the $77,500 level. The price even dipped below $77,000. A low was formed at $76,561 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is showing bearish signs below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,017 swing high to the $76,561 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $76,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $77,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $78,650 level. A close above the $78,650 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $80,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,017 swing high to the $76,561 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,700 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,500 level. The first major support is near the $75,800 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,500, followed by $76,000. Major Resistance Levels – $77,700 and $78,650.
Bitcoin’s latest on-chain picture is beginning to look less like panic and more like patience. Data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by crypto analyst Darkfost, shows that long-term holder supply has climbed back to 15.26 million BTC, returning to a level last seen in August 2025. The move comes at a sensitive point for Bitcoin, with the price still trying to build strength around $80,000 while traders are currently split between another breakdown and a recovery. Related Reading: XRP Records Biggest Spike In Network Usage In 2 Months Long-Term Holders Add 316,000 BTC In 30 Days On-chain data tracked by CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) supply has recovered to 15.26 million BTC, levels last seen in August 2025. However, the most important detail in the CryptoQuant chart is not only that long-term holder supply is rising but also the speed of the increase in the past month. LTH supply has grown by roughly 316,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That means more coins are aging into long-term holder status, which is a category used to identify investors who have held their Bitcoin for at least about six months and are less likely to react to short-term volatility. As shown in the chart image below, the green bars representing the 30-day change in LTH supply have increased into positive territory in recent weeks, which is a distinct reversal from the red distribution phase that dominated late 2025. At the end of November, the same 30-day metric showed a negative change of about 650,000 BTC, meaning a large amount of supply had moved out of long-term holder wallets during that period. That earlier phase coincided with a more vulnerable market structure as Bitcoin rolled over from its October 2025 all-time high and began a deeper correction. Bitcoin LTH Supply Change Darkfost also relayed this change to the earlier movement of 800,000 BTC from Coinbase. His point is that May 23 could become an important date for on-chain discussions, as those coins will officially cross the six-month threshold. Once that happens, then investors could see more commentary around how much of that supply is being reclassified into the hands of long-term holders. Bitcoin Showing Strength The long-term holder data also fits into a separate outlook from analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who noted that the market may be too focused on new lows. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s 25% rebound from its recent lows, despite Middle East war concerns and a rise in yields, is a sign of resilience. In his argument, losing the 21-day moving average does not automatically mean Bitcoin must collapse into new lows, especially since the price is still holding above $76,000. Van de Poppe also compared Bitcoin against gold, saying the BTC/gold RSI has fallen to one of its lowest readings ever. However, previous low readings in the BTC/gold RSI did not happen during the start of a bear market but came during the beginning of stronger Bitcoin phases. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoMichNL On X A crash to new lows would require Bitcoin to invalidate the 200-week moving average, something that would break most cycle behavior outside extreme shocks such as the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022. Related Reading: Warren Zeroes In On Crypto Deal Structure As $75M Loan Draws Attention This does not mean that Bitcoin cannot test lower support. A move to $70,000 could still happen as a support test, but the difference is that he does not see new lows as the most likely outcome. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
After springing back to life on the back of positive CLARITY Act development, the price of Bitcoin has been relatively quiet over the past few days. The premier cryptocurrency, which had been dancing around $82,000, is now barely above $78,000. According to a crypto trader on the social media platform X, the latest decline in Bitcoin’s price might not be what it seems and could be a fakeout. Divergence Between BTC Price, Open Interest Suggests Imminent Reversal Pseudonymous crypto pundit Cryptic Trades took to the X platform to share an interesting take on Bitcoin’s recent price decline. The market analyst posited that a combination of on-chain signals points to the formation of a trap for BTC short-position traders. Firstly, Cryptic Trades highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the Open Interest metric, which measures the total number of outstanding derivative contracts for a cryptocurrency. While BTC’s price fell towards $78,000, the Open Interest metric has been on an upward trend. Related Reading: Is Zcash The Next Bitcoin? Investors Rush Into The Privacy Coin Narrative Typically, when price and Open Interest move in opposite directions, it means that a trend reversal (a return of bullish momentum, in this case) might be imminent. The trader also noted that the Funding Rates have been negative, which correlates with the ongoing divergence between Bitcoin’s price and Open Interest. The Funding Rates, which measure the periodic fee paid by short traders to long traders, or vice versa, are usually negative when bears are in control of the market (and are the ones making the payment). Cryptic Trades noted that negative Funding Rates suggest the bears are “doubling down” on their positions and continuously betting against the flagship cryptocurrency. “It also shows that even though the market structure remains intact, bears are shorting as if a breakdown already happened,” the crypto trader explained. According to Cryptic Trades, the confluence of these signals is how bear traps are formed, and that could be the current situation for Bitcoin. A bear trap is a deceptive price pattern that typically involves a drop in an asset’s value (often beneath a support level), tricking market participants into believing that a new downtrend has begun. It’s also important to note that extremely negative Funding Rates have often preceded a phenomenon known as a “short squeeze,” in which an asset’s price is driven higher by the forced closure of short positions. Hence, investors might want to exercise caution when entering any position at this juncture. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,130, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Forming A Consolidation Structure Around $80,000 Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has struggled to break above the $82,000 price resistance and now trades near $78,000. While the integrity of either of these zones carries significant yet different implications for the flagship cryptocurrency’s growth, a crypto research and education group has revealed that several factors indicate a growing fragility in the market. Leveraged Risks On The Rise As ETF Outflows Surge In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan delved into multiple on-chain signals that collectively flashed a signal of uncertainty for the Bitcoin market. The crypto research group began by citing Axel Adler Jr.’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). For context, the ELR measures the amount of leverage traders are using in the Bitcoin futures market by comparing open interest to the amount of BTC held on exchanges. In the Quicktake post, the education group highlighted that the ELR had surged toward 14.9% — a sign that traders are increasingly borrowing capital to maintain their bullish exposures. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Forming A Consolidation Structure Around $80,000 XWIN Research Japan noted that although high leverage can boost prices in the near-term, “healthy bull markets are usually driven by spot demand.” According to the analytics firm, current conditions only increase the Bitcoin market’s vulnerability to sudden liquidation events. Notably, there have been significant surges in both Open Interest and Funding Rates, reflecting an overwhelming presence of long positions. XWIN Research Japan pointed out that this could be a dangerous scenario, as “long positions are now increasingly exposed to downside volatility” following Bitcoin’s recent move to $82,000, also driven by sell-side liquidity. Interestingly, all of these are ongoing, as US-based institutions seem to be on a hiatus (as reflected in a prolonged negative reading of the Coinbase Premium). More shockingly, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw almost $1 billion in capital outflows over the past week, according to XWIN Research Japan. To further paint a clear picture of the market situation, XWIN Research cited the lingering backdrop of worsening macroeconomic conditions. The crypto research group highlighted that the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to near 4.6%, while the 30-year yield jumped above 5%. — both of which reveal that the markets currently lean towards the “higher for longer” rates. Liquidity Still On The Sidelines: Research Group Despite these conditions, XWIN Research emphasized that the market remains definitely bearish. According to the group, Bitcoin Long-term Holders hold more than 15 million BTC, with more than 316,000 BTC entering the market over the past month. Furthermore, XWIN Research highlighted a concurrently growing liquidity pool on Binance (the world’s leading crypto exchange by trading volume), as reflected in its stablecoin inflows. Ultimately, the research institute highlighted the $78K–$79K range, which overlaps with the STH Realized Price. If this key level fails, XWIN Research expects bearish pressure to immediately rise. On the other hand, ETF flow stability should give Bitcoin some bullish thrust as the Coinbase Premium recovers. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth about $78,194, recording a daily loss by 1.2%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Zone Now Lies Around $59,000 Based On This On-Chain Metric Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin continues to face strong resistance as bulls struggle to reclaim higher price levels and restore upward momentum. With the market failing to break key resistance zones, attention is now shifting toward major Fibonacci support areas, where buyers could attempt to stabilize the current decline and prevent a deeper correction. Recovery Hopes Fade Unless Resistance Levels Break After failing to break above the $82,885 resistance peak, Bitcoin is experiencing selling pressure. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, the 4-hour chart still points to ongoing downside risk, with price action likely to remain weak as long as Bitcoin trades below the critical $78,203 level. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Still Needs Massive Capital Inflows To Ignite True Bull Run Uray explained that if BTC remains under $78,203, the decline could continue toward the $74,929 region, where buyers may attempt to step in and slow the downward momentum. However, failure to generate a meaningful recovery from that zone could trigger a much deeper correction across the broader market. The analyst also highlighted the $71,000–$68,000 range as a major Fibonacci support area where stronger buying interest could emerge. On the upside, key resistance levels to monitor remain around $98,000 and the $107,000–$109,000 region, which could act as a major barrier if Bitcoin attempts another recovery rally. Meanwhile, on the downside, the analyst pointed to the $60,000 level as a critical support zone, noting that a daily close below it would significantly strengthen bearish control and turn any future rallies into corrective bounces rather than signs of a sustained recovery. Bitcoin Stays Range-Bound As Market Awaits Breakout Signal Crypto analyst Ultimae noted that Bitcoin has remained stuck in a range-bound structure for the past 10 days, with price action showing little momentum in either direction. According to the analyst, the market is currently stabilizing around the $78,700 level, which had previously been identified as a key support zone. Related Reading: Why The $65,000 Region Is Important As Bitcoin Gears Up To Face Massive Resistance At These Levels Currently, holding above this support remains important for maintaining short-term stability. However, if Bitcoin breaks decisively below it, the next downside target could be around $77,000 as bearish pressure intensifies. On the upside, the analyst pointed out that the $80,000 area is no longer acting as a major resistance barrier, while the more significant resistance level remains near $83,000. A successful breakout above that region could strengthen bullish momentum and potentially open the door for a move toward the $87,000 target zone. For now, Ultimae believes Bitcoin is likely to remain trapped within its current range unless the market produces a clear directional breakout. As long as neither support nor resistance is decisively broken, the broader outlook continues to favor sideways consolidation rather than the start of a strong trending move. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price has surged towards the $80,000 mark over the past few weeks, signaling an ongoing resurgence from the bear-market lows observed in the first quarter of 2026. However, the premier cryptocurrency appears to have run out of the bullish impetus to sustain its current recovery, as it hovers around a psychological price level. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price could be forming a consolidation range around the $80,000 region. Weak Coinbase Demand, Zero Binance Sell Pressure Forms ‘Equilibrium Of Apathy’: Analyst In a May 15 post on the social media platform X, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that a “Low-Velocity Consolidation” setup seems to be forming in the current Bitcoin price structure. This evaluation is based on a confluence of three on-chain signals over the past couple of weeks. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Registers Strongest Profit Realization In Weeks — What This Means Firstly, CryptoOnchain shared that the Network Value to Transaction metric has been in an uptrend in recent weeks. This indicator measures the ratio of a cryptocurrency’s (Bitcoin, in this case) market capitalization to transaction volume, offering insight into whether an asset is over- or undervalued. When this metric is high (as it currently is), it means that the Bitcoin price growth is no longer being supported by actual network activity (or increasing transaction value). Hence, a further expansion in BTC’s price, especially in the short term, might not be feasible. CryptoOnchain noted that, at the same time, there has been a significant Bitcoin supply drought on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. The analyst stated that the Binance Inflow CDD metric has dropped 99.5% since April, with Bitcoin long-term holders showing a reluctance to sell their assets. The third metric highlighted by CryptoOnchain is the Coinbase Premium, which measures the demand from institutional investors in the United States. According to data from CryptoQuant, there appears to be some apathy among US investors, as the Coinbase Premium has remained largely negative in recent weeks. CryptoOnchain explained that this combination of weak demand and zero sell pressure from two of the largest exchanges creates an “Equilibrium of Apathy.” These illiquid conditions, compounded by low Binance leverage, are often precursors to a volatility squeeze, the on-chain pundit concluded. Could This Volatility Squeeze Trigger The Next Bitcoin Price Move? For context, a volatility squeeze is a technical analysis pattern (shown by contracting Bollinger Bands) that signals a period of consolidation. What’s interesting is that this technical pattern has historically preceded significant price breakouts. Hence, from an optimistic perspective, the current period of inactivity in the Bitcoin price could simply be the “calm before the storm.” As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $79,000 mark, reflecting an almost 3% decline in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fails $82,000 Breakout Three Times As Short-Term Holders Sell Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Gargoyle has advised market participants not to buy Bitcoin until it sees high volume, which could mark the bottom. This comes amid BTC’s recent drop below the psychological $80,000 level, with the leading crypto at risk of another decline. Analyst Advises Against Buying Bitcoin Until Bottom Is Confirmed In an X post, Gargoyle advised against buying Bitcoin until the bottom is confirmed. He indicated that the BTC bottom forms when there is massive volume and that this massive volume hasn’t happened yet. The analyst alluded to the 2022/2023 cycle, when the capitulation spike marked the bottom for BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Basis Remains High Within Biggest Supply Cluster However, at the moment, this capitulation spike hasn’t occurred with Bitcoin’s volume still moderate, suggesting that market participants aren’t truly panicking yet despite the downtrend. Gargoyle further noted that the hardest flush always comes after retail thinks it is over for BTC, which then leads to a spike in volume as investors capitulate. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could still drop to around $45,000 before it bottoms, while this could happen between now and the start of next year. Once that happens, BTC could then see a reversal as it targets a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, BTC had rallied over the past week to as high as $83,000, providing optimism that the bear market may be over. However, Bitcoin has since dropped below $80,000, raising concerns that the bear market may still be in force, as some analysts, such as Doctor Profit, had warned. The analyst had also mentioned before that BTC will likely bottom between September and October later this year based on its historical cycle patterns. BTC Bound To Decline If Stock Market Crashes Crypto analyst Colin warned that the current stock market pump is the only thing keeping Bitcoin afloat. He further noted that, in the short term, the S&P 500 appears bullish following the recent megaphone breakout. However, in the longer term, the economic backdrop doesn’t look good for these stocks and, by extension, for BTC. Related Reading: Analyst Says Avoid Bitcoin At All Costs; Here’s What To Do Instead As 50% Crash Looms Colin alluded to the CPI and PPI, which are both running hot, with inflation rising due to the U.S.-Iran war. The analyst stated that this is not a favorable environment for a Bitcoin “super cycle,” as some bulls are claiming. It is worth noting that the market is also beginning to price in a rate hike this year, which is bearish for the leading crypto. As such, with the macro environment not looking good, Colin suggested that BTC will crash if the stock market sees any significant drop in the future. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $79,000, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) dropping below the $80,000 mark is starting to undo some of the optimism that followed a major step forward for the industry. After the Senate Banking Committee markup for the CLARITY Act on Thursday, the market’s gains have since faded. Now, fresh inflation data is arriving with a potentially heavier hand, and analysts say it could further cool sentiment that traders had hoped would carry into stronger price action. The concern is not limited to Bitcoin: the same macro pressure could spill into Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), where conditions often translate into sharper day-to-day moves. ‘Broadly Bearish’ For Bitcoin Market expert Alex Carchidi of The Motley Fool frames April’s inflation reading as particularly difficult to absorb. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on May 12, prices rose 3.8% year over year. A key driver was energy, which jumped 17.9% as costs climbed amid the US-Iran conflict. Related Reading: Bitcoin And XRP Climb On CLARITY Act News—But Clear Path To Law Isn’t Done Yet In Carchidi’s view, the inflation impulse is not just another routine print—it reflects real supply disruption. The analysis points specifically to the blocking of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, an event that has helped push energy prices higher and, in turn, lifts overall inflation. The report also showed core inflation, which excludes food and energy, moving higher than many expected. Core CPI increased to 2.8% year over year, edging above forecast. Taken together, Carchidi describes the figures as broadly bearish for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector, but he stresses that the effect will not be identical across major coins. Risk-On In The Spotlight Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are all likely to face consequences, yet their market positioning relative to inflation and liquidity differs enough to matter. One major reason Bitcoin may be more resilient—at least in theory—is that crypto markets often respond to the cost and availability of capital. Carchidi notes that “crypto thrives on cheap capital.” However, with the macro backdrop changing, the expectation is that the “spigot” for liquidity could be tightening rather than widening. That brings the Federal Reserve into focus. The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% across three consecutive meetings. Still, traders are watching for a shift in policy expectations, pricing in roughly a 30% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year. Carchidi says this matters more for Ethereum and Solana than for Bitcoin. His rationale is tied to how these assets are commonly perceived by the market. ETH and SOL, in the expert’s words, are typically treated as risk-on holdings, and they do not have an established “inflation hedge” story that investors can fall back on during periods of persistent inflation pressure. Bitcoin, by contrast, has long been positioned—by supporters—as a scarce asset that could act as an inflation hedge, which can provide a different kind of narrative support when traditional assets and macro assumptions shift. Near-Term Warning For Ethereum And Solana Cardichi suggests that if the energy shock eventually leads to broader monetary loosening, Bitcoin’s scarcity-based argument could become more compelling again over a multiyear horizon. Related Reading: Zcash (ZEC) Rockets 1,200%—Expert Says ZEC Could Soon Outgrow Cardano (ADA) Even then, he emphasizes that this is conditional—an “if, not a when”—and that the market would need data-driven confirmation for the renewed case to feel convincing. For Ethereum and Solana, the near-term picture is less optimistic in his conclusion. Their value, according to Carchidi, depends more on the networks gaining traction with users and attracting capital to their platforms. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has failed three attempts to break above the $82,000 area, with short-term holders repeatedly selling into strength, according to a May 15 market brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. The setup puts the market in a narrow technical and behavioral squeeze, where the 200-day simple moving average is acting as resistance while short-term holder profitability metrics remain stuck near break-even. Adler’s latest Bitcoin Morning Brief frames the current structure as more than a standard resistance test. Price is trapped between the realized cost basis of short-term holders and the 200-day SMA, with each bounce drawing the same response from recent buyers: distribution rather than renewed conviction. “Price is stuck between the realized cost basis level of short-term holders and the 200D SMA, and every bounce meets the same reaction: STH are using strength to exit, preventing the market from moving higher,” Adler wrote. “Together, the two charts show not just technical resistance, but a behavioral trap.” The key level in Adler’s analysis is $82.1K, identified as the 200-day SMA and the upper boundary of the current resistance zone. Bitcoin has approached that level three times since April 2026, but each attempt ended in a pullback. Below spot, Adler points to the STH 1W-1M Realized Price at $77.9K as the main support reference, leaving Bitcoin compressed in a roughly $4,200 corridor. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Entered A Deceptive Territory, Here’s What You Should Know That range matters because it combines a widely watched trend indicator with the cost basis of recent market participants. In Adler’s reading, the lack of abnormal volume spikes during the failed upside attempts suggests that buyers have not shown enough aggression to absorb the supply being offered near the top of the range. “As long as price remains below $82.1K, the resistance structure stays intact,” the brief said. “Confirmation of a regime change would require a confident daily close above the 200D SMA alongside rising volume. Without that, every bounce remains a candidate for selling.” Bitcoin STH SOPR Remains The Market’s Pressure Gauge The second part of Adler’s argument centers on short-term holder SOPR, a metric that tracks whether recently moved coins are being spent at a profit or loss. According to the brief, STH SOPR has recovered from the extreme lows seen in February 2026, but it has still failed to hold sustainably above the 1.0 threshold. That level is central to the current read. When STH SOPR moves toward 1.0 and rolls over, it suggests short-term holders are using rallies to exit around break-even rather than staying positioned for further upside. Adler said both the seven-day and 30-day moving averages are hovering near that boundary, reinforcing the idea that supply is reappearing exactly where a stronger rally would need confirmation. Related Reading: Jane Street Cuts Bitcoin ETF Exposure By 71%: Why This Could Be Bullish “Every time price attempts to rise, SOPR briefly moves up toward 1.0, then quickly falls back again,” Adler wrote. “This means that STH are using rallies to exit rather than holding positions in anticipation of further upside. This pattern is a sign of a market where supply dominates demand in the break-even zone.” The interaction between the two charts is the main point of the brief. Adler argues that the failed breakouts near $82.1K were accompanied by STH SOPR pushing toward 1.0 and then reversing, making the resistance zone both technical and behavioral. The 200-day SMA defines the chart barrier; short-term holder selling helps enforce it. “This is not a coincidence, but a mechanism,” Adler wrote. “Resistance at $82.1K is being maintained not only technically through the 200D SMA, but also behaviorally — by STH themselves, who use this zone to sell whenever the market tries to move higher.” Breakout Conditions Remain Narrow For Adler, the bullish trigger is clear but unconfirmed. Bitcoin would need a decisive daily close above $82.1K, supported by rising volume, while the STH SOPR seven-day moving average would need to hold above 1.0 for several consecutive days. That combination would indicate not only a technical break of the 200-day SMA, but also a shift in short-term holder behavior from selling at break-even to holding positions in profit. Until then, the current regime remains neutral with a cautious bias. A fourth rejection near the same zone would risk sending price back toward $77.9K, Adler’s cited short-term holder support level. If that support fails to hold, the brief warns that lower support levels could come back into view. The market, in other words, is not waiting only for price to clear a line on the chart. It is waiting for recent buyers to stop treating that line as an exit. At press time, BTC traded at $80,453. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $80,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $82,000 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $78,800 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $80,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $80,500 and $80,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Regains Strength Bitcoin price found support near $78,800 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $79,500 and $80,200 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $80,500. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $80,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A high was formed at $82,017, and the price started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $78,720 swing low to the $82,017 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $80,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $81,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $82,000 level. A close above the $82,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $82,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,750 level. The first major support is near the $80,350 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $78,720 swing low to the $82,017 high. The next support is now near the $79,980 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $79,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $78,800, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,750, followed by $80,350. Major Resistance Levels – $82,000 and $82,800.
Bitcoin’s latest push has run into a difficult stretch, with the price falling back under the $80,000 mark in the past 24 hours. This context gives more weight to a new quarterly chart analysis that places the most important levels much lower than the current price. According to the analyst, Bitcoin may continue to move sideways within the present quarter, but the structure of the quarterly candle makes the $65,000 region a major area to watch if the current resistance continues to hold. The Resistance Zone That Could Define This Quarter Technical analysis of Bitcoin price action on the 3-month candlestick chart shows important price levels for Bitcoin traders in this quarter. The analysis, which was posted on X by crypto analyst Minga, puts the most immediate observation on the $80,600 to $82,500 range. This is a band that, based on the quarterly chart, represents the ideal area for Bitcoin to find rejection in the current candle. Related Reading: The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over This zone is important because it sits near the upper boundary of the current quarterly structure and has already acted as a difficult area for bulls to reclaim. Bitcoin tested the 200-day SMA resistance around $82,500 early in the week, but buyers have so far failed to secure a strong breakout above the level. The outlook is that Bitcoin should ideally reject inside the $80,600 to $82,500 range. If Bitcoin cannot close above this region in this quarter, then it shows that the price action lacks the conviction required to push into price discovery on this particular cycle’s terms. On the other hand, if Bitcoin reclaims this area, then the quarterly candle will end up engulfing the previous quarterly candle, which is something that hasn’t happened during a bear market before. $65,000 Is Very Important The bearish side of the setup depends on Bitcoin continuing to reject from $80,600 to $82,500, but there are important support levels to watch when there is a rejection. The analyst identified Bitcoin’s quarterly open at around $68,200, and this level stands out as the first major support area below the current price action. A move back to the quarterly open would therefore place Bitcoin at an important decision point for the broader timeframe. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle, Calls Out 50% Crash To $42,000 However, perhaps the most important line in the sand for this quarter is $65,000, and this is because there are untapped lows around that area on the lower timeframes. Bitcoin has yet to revisit these untapped lows, and therefore, $65,000 represents areas of likely liquidity. However, there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin holds the region as support and stages another upside bounce from there. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,820, down by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin may be holding strong above major psychological levels, but the market still lacks the scale of capital inflows needed to trigger a true full-scale bull run. While short-term moves can be driven by leverage and speculative positioning, a true bull run historically requires deep, consistent liquidity from institutions, funds, and new retail participants entering the market. The Liquidity Gap Preventing Bitcoin From Full Expansion Bitcoin still requires significantly stronger capital inflows to confirm the start of a true bull market, as current on-chain signals suggest momentum remains insufficient. The founder and CEO of Alphractal, Joao Wedson, highlighted on X that a key metric to watch is the realized market capitalization impulse, which is currently hovering just below the neutral 0 level, a zone now acting as temporary resistance. Related Reading: Previous Bitcoin’s Market Top Was Hidden Behind Sophisticated Whale Distribution — Analyst Explained If the metric fails to reclaim and hold above 0, it would signal fading market inflows, increasing the probability that BTC could revisit lower price levels in the coming months. However, a decisive move back above 0 would suggest that fresh money is re-entering the network, potentially marking the beginning of a shorter, more compressed bear cycle moving toward upside momentum. For now, with the indicator still below this critical threshold, Joao cautions that it remains too early to declare the start of a new bull run. Despite market optimism, the data suggest that the necessary foundation of strong capital inflows has not fully materialized to sustain an upside move. Is Bitcoin Entering The Early Stages Of A Trend Reversal? Bitcoin is starting to show early signs of structural weakness after struggling to maintain strong bullish momentum at a major resistance zone. A crypto trader known as CGT Trader has noted that during the recent rally, BTC rarely formed consecutive lower highs, and when it did form lower highs, it was unusually limited to a single occurrence before the next continuation to the upside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally At Risk: This Critical Resistance Could End BTC’s Bullish Run Currently, the price action is starting to deviate from that pattern. BTC is still trading sideways within a major resistance zone, and the price has already formed three consecutive lower highs without making a lower low. CGT Trader explained that the market structure is not fully bearish because BTC has still not confirmed lower lows. However, the repeated inability to reclaim higher levels suggests the uptrend may be losing strength as buyers struggle to sustain momentum. The critical level to watch is whether BTC begins printing lower lows alongside these lower highs. Meanwhile, if that formation occurs, it would signal a clear shift in market structure, potentially marking the end of the bull trap and the beginning of a broader high-time frame downtrend. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Cryptocurrency markets rallied sharply on Thursday after the Senate Banking Committee delivered a major win for the industry by advancing the long-anticipated CLARITY Act. The market reaction was visible across the largest coins: Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to $81,899 at the time of writing, representing about a 2.7% gain, while XRP led among the top ten cryptocurrencies, surging above $1.50 with gains of more than 6%—a level not seen since March of this year. Even with the momentum, the bill is still not law, and it faces multiple political and procedural hurdles before it can be finalized. Next Steps For The CLARITY Act The committee’s action—passing the CLARITY Act by a 15–9 vote—means the next step is a full Senate vote, which would require roughly 60 votes to pass. If it clears that threshold, the process would move into the next phase, typically involving House–Senate talks to reconcile differences between versions, followed by a potential presidential signature, which could further boost crypto prices. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) To $100? Expert Forecasts Major Rise Before Summer 2027 At the same time, several Democrats voiced reservations about whether the CLARITY Act strikes the right balance. As earlier reported by Bitcoinist, the hearing included discussion of Democratic amendments aimed at concerns such as stablecoin yields and AML. Those amendments were either voted down or rejected by Scott on the basis that they were not written correctly and therefore could not be offered in that process. XRP Reclaims $1.50, Bitcoin Nears $82,000 Beyond the CLARITY Act, the market’s chart-driven response turned into a question of whether XRP and Bitcoin can continue to convert momentum into follow-through. With XRP reclaiming the $1.50 area, a decisive weekly close above $1.50 is now being watched as a potential trigger for further upside. Some projections point toward targets in the $1.65 to $1.70 range, and a more aggressive bullish extension could carry expectations toward $1.85 if the rally gains additional strength. Related Reading: Coinbase CEO Unpacks The Crypto Bill’s Biggest Promise For The US Financial System For Bitcoin, traders have been focused on a specific resistance level: $83,000. That level has been a key barrier recently, as it prevented continued upside after last week’s move. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin also experienced a pullback that took it below $79,000 on Wednesday, before rebounding again toward $82,000 on Thursday in the immediate aftermath of the CLARITY Act committee vote. In other words, the market is celebrating today’s progress, but the next technical test remains close by. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Xanrox has advised market participants against buying Bitcoin, warning that a crash is looming for the leading crypto. Instead, the analyst advised buying altcoins, which are likely to offer greater gains. Analyst Advises Against Buying Bitcoin With Crash Looming In a TradingView analysis, Xanrox advised against buying Bitcoin, citing the crypto’s bearish price action. Commenting on BTC’s daily chart, he noted that the LOG scale shows a bearish flag pattern, indicating bearish price action. He added that it will be a technical error to buy or go long at the resistance of the channel. Related Reading: 9 Red Candles Before The Bottom: Why Bitcoin Price Will Continue To Crash Xanax further revealed that Bitcoin’s price is currently within the channel, indicating a huge selling wall above the current price. The analyst admitted there is still a chance BTC could rise to between $83,000 and $84,000. However, he advised opening a short position at this point rather than longing BTC. The analyst’s accompanying chart indicated that the recent Bitcoin rally was simply a bull trap, with BTC now at risk of dropping to around $60,000. BTC notably fell below $80,000 yesterday following the release of the U.S. PPI inflation data, which showed that inflation rose 6% year-over-year (YoY) in April due to the U.S.-Iran war. Meanwhile, Xanrox also noted that Bitcoin’s dominance is bearish, which is a strong sign of an altcoin season. He stated that the BTC price is currently looking to retest the main channel’s support trendline at around $60,000. Altcoins To Buy Xanrox listed ADA, TRX, LINK, DOGE, BNB, XLM, XRP, and ETH as altcoins to buy for those looking to trade with huge banks and institutions because they control the price of these coins. He reiterated that market participants should avoid Bitcoin as its dominance is falling and that it has already pumped from its February lows of around $60,000. Related Reading: Can An Altcoin Season Come Again? Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Fall Below $40,000 Meanwhile, the analyst stated that trading lower-cap coins will be better for those looking to make much more profit, as those coins have greater upside than the major altcoins, which he described as ‘bank’s coins.’ Some altcoins have recorded significant gains over the last month, with TON, SUI, and ONDO leading the way. TON is up almost 50% in the last month, rising to almost $3 as the Toncoin network’s fees dropped by 600%. The altcoin also recorded this surge as the Toncoin network now offers one of the most attractive yields among all layer-1 networks. Meanwhile, SUI and ONDO are up over 26% and 57%, respectively, on the back of bullish fundamentals in their respective ecosystems. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $79,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has lost the $80,000 level as the market faces a wave of uncertainty that has erased the confidence built during weeks of gradual recovery. The breakdown is not catastrophic in isolation — but XWIN Research Japan has identified a set of on-chain conditions that place the current moment in a historical context that demands careful attention before drawing conclusions about what comes next. Related Reading: XRP Holds Key Level, But Binance Flow Data Signals Weakening Demand The analysis draws on CryptoQuant data to describe a market at a genuine inflection point. Bitcoin rallied approximately 37% from the April lows, a recovery that carried it back toward the 200-day moving average at approximately $82,400 — a technical level that has acted as major resistance during previous bear market recovery attempts. The price reached that level and is now retreating from it. The historical parallel that XWIN Research Japan identifies is March 2022. At that point in the previous cycle, Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound of comparable magnitude before failing at the 200-day moving average and resuming the broader downtrend that eventually carried it to the cycle lows. The structural resemblance between that moment and the current one is the finding that cannot be dismissed without examining the evidence carefully. Compounding the concern, unrealized profit margins have climbed to 17.7% — the highest level since June 2025 — approaching the readings that accompanied the 2022 recovery rally before profit-taking accelerated and the advance stalled. The pressure building in the data is real. Whether it resolves the same way is the question the analysis addresses. The 2022 Bitcoin Warning Is Real The XWIN Research Japan analysis does not dismiss the bearish parallel — it earns the right to challenge it by acknowledging the evidence for it first. On May 4, traders realized profits of 14,600 BTC in a single day, the largest daily profit-taking spike since December 2025. Historically, single-day realizations of that scale tend to appear near local tops rather than in the middle of sustained advances. The signal is present and documented. What follows in the analysis is the case for why the current structure differs from the 2022 analog despite the surface similarities. Spot demand contraction has narrowed dramatically — from -91,000 BTC in April to approximately -11,000 BTC today. Selling pressure of that magnitude characterized the 2022 bear cycle throughout its duration. The current reading is a fraction of that. Long-term holder panic selling remains limited, and the average spot order size data points to whale-sized participation rather than retail-driven activity. Suggesting that large, informed capital is still accumulating through the volatility rather than exiting alongside it. The structural context that did not exist in 2022 adds the final layer. Spot ETFs, corporate Bitcoin adoption, and the regulatory clarity being advanced through the CLARITY Act represent institutional infrastructure that provides demand support the previous cycle simply did not have access to. The honest conclusion the analysis reaches is that Bitcoin may not be repeating 2022. It may instead be navigating a transitional phase. One where the asset is institutionalizing in real time, and where the historical playbook requires updating before it can be applied reliably to what comes next. Related Reading: A Quiet Rotation Into Altcoins May Already Be Underway: Altseason Hopes Return Bitcoin Faces Resistance After Recovery Rally Bitcoin is trading near $79,700 after losing momentum around the $80,000–$82,000 region, an area that has become the market’s immediate battleground. The daily chart shows BTC retreating after a powerful recovery from February lows near $63,000, a move that delivered roughly a 37% rally before price ran directly into major technical resistance. The rejection comes at an important point because the advance stalled precisely as Bitcoin approached the declining 200-day moving average near $82,400. That level carries historical importance. During previous bear-market recovery phases, the 200-day moving average frequently acted as a line separating temporary relief rallies from broader trend reversals. BTC briefly tested the region and immediately began showing signs of exhaustion. Related Reading: 21Shares Is Launching A Hyperliquid ETF: Here Is What Investors Need To Know Despite the pullback, the broader structure has not yet broken down. Bitcoin continues holding above the key support zone around $73,000–$75,000 highlighted on the chart. That region aligns with previous consolidation and sits close to the rising shorter-term moving averages. As long as price remains above it, buyers maintain technical control of the recovery structure. Volume has also declined during the latest push higher, suggesting momentum participation weakened near resistance. For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between key support and long-term resistance, leaving the market at a critical decision point. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A warning from Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing a familiar bear market structure beginning to take shape. According to technical analysis of the weekly chart, Bitcoin has already moved through a topside distribution phase and a range phase beneath it, and the current price action is now forming a redistribution zone. The concern is that a similar setup appeared after the 2021 peak before Bitcoin went through a much deeper decline. The last time this setup appeared, it erased nearly 80% of Bitcoin’s value in under a year. Bitcoin Chart Following The 2021 Breakdown Structure The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with the structure that developed during the 2021 to 2022 bear market. In that previous cycle, Bitcoin first created a distribution zone near the top. The price then entered a range phase below that high, creating the appearance of stabilization before the market rolled into a redistribution area. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Reveals What It Would Mean For XRP Holders If The Company Went Public The first stage in 2021, which was a Distribution Phase, occurred as Bitcoin reached its then-peak near $69,000. In the current cycle, the same pattern materialized around the $108,000 to $126,000 zone, forming a wide but delineated top. The second stage was a Range Phase, which is a minor consolidation band directly beneath the distribution ceiling where price stabilized before the next move. The third stage, and the one that might be forming right now, is Redistribution. This is the structure that immediately preceded the 2021 crash. It is a secondary range, lower than the first, where sellers reassert control before a decisive breakdown. In 2021, the conclusion of this redistribution phase was the last exit point before the Bitcoin price fell 78% over the following eight months. Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart. Source: @degargoyle On X Is This A Sell Signal? The question now is whether this is a sell signal, but the chart does not give a simple answer. What it does show is a warning against assuming that the recent bounce above $80,000 is the beginning of a run to a new all-time high. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,800. The redistribution phase, if confirmed, does not guarantee a crash of 78% or any fixed magnitude. But a repeat of a 78% crash from current price levels will see the Bitcoin price falling below $25,000. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 However, it is also important to note that Bitcoin’s fundamentals and structural environment in 2026 bear little resemblance to the one that existed when the last crash took hold. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the rally had been due to strong ETF inflows and favorable regulatory conditions, institutional pillars that did not exist four years ago. Market sentiment is back to neutral, and the more balanced interpretation is that Bitcoin is now in a confirmation zone. A strong weekly claim above $84,000 would weaken the sell signal and suggest that buyers are in full control. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Jane Street sharply reduced its Bitcoin ETF exposure in the first quarter of 2026, cutting reported holdings in BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC while increasing positions in Ether ETFs and several crypto-linked equities. The move has revived speculation that one of the market’s largest trading firms may have been a major force in Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics — and that a lighter reported position could remove a key overhang for BTC. According to the latest 13F filings, Jane Street cut its IBIT position by roughly 71% and its FBTC position by about 60% in Q1. Parker White, the Chief Operating Officer (COO) and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of DeFi Development Corp (DFDV), renewed his thesis from February and argued via X that the filing may help answer questions that have circulated since a major IBIT trading dislocation on February 5 when BTC price saw a massive -18% drawdown. “It is now apparent that Jane Street cut their IBIT and FBTC holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 based on 13F filings,” Parker wrote on X. “Did they just outright sell or more likely, did they make a HUGE profit on their short derivatives, which they don’t have to report? We are still waiting for the final shoe to drop with one of the likely culprits of the blowup.” It is now apparent that Jane Street cut their IBIT and FBTC holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 based on 13F filings. Did they just outright sell or more likely, did they make a HUGE profit on their short derivatives (which they don’t have to report)? We are still waiting for the… https://t.co/67XxlwZEGm — Parker (@TheOtherParker_) May 13, 2026 Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Entered A Deceptive Territory, Here’s What You Should Know Will The Bitcoin Price Rally Now? The filing does not show Jane Street’s derivatives exposure, nor does it establish whether the firm was directionally bearish, hedged, or engaged in ETF arbitrage and market-making activity. That limitation is central to the debate. A 13F captures certain long holdings at quarter-end, but it does not give a complete view of options, swaps, futures, or short exposure that could materially change the economic interpretation of the reported cuts. Still, the reduction has become a focal point because of earlier claims that Bitcoin’s price discovery may have been distorted by the mechanics of spot ETF trading. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park wrote that Jane Street had “slashed its Bitcoin ETF exposure in Q1 2026,” cutting IBIT by approximately 71% and FBTC by approximately 60%, before adding: “Price discovery is back on the menu.” Park’s broader argument is not that one firm explicitly suppressed Bitcoin’s price, but that the ETF structure creates a complex market-making environment in which authorized participants can use creation and redemption mechanics, derivatives, and futures hedges in ways that may weaken the link between ETF demand and spot Bitcoin buying. In a prior post, he framed the issue as structural rather than conspiratorial. JANE STREET SLASHED ITS BITCOIN ETF EXPOSURE IN Q1 2026, CUTTING IBIT BY ~71% AND FBTC BY ~60%, ACCORDING TO ITS LATEST 13F FILING Price discovery is back on the menu https://t.co/ed41KhlQC4 — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) May 13, 2026 “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” Park wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Related Reading: Here’s When Bitcoin Could Reach $10 Million Under Power Law Model That distinction matters for the bullish interpretation. If Jane Street’s reported Bitcoin ETF exposure has already been reduced substantially, some traders may read the filing as evidence that a large source of ETF-related pressure has been partially cleared. Parker went further, suggesting Jane Street “likely doesn’t want to be short BTC forever” and that observers should “look for them to begin re-accumulating in Q2.” The thesis is speculative, but it is not without a clear market logic. If a large trading firm had been involved in strategies that created persistent ETF or derivatives pressure, a reduction in reported Bitcoin ETF holdings, combined with any eventual unwind of related positions, could shift the market’s balance back toward cleaner spot-led price discovery. That is the bullish setup implied by the posts: not simply that Jane Street sold, but that the trade may already have played out. At the same time, Jane Street did not exit crypto exposure broadly. The firm increased holdings in BlackRock and Fidelity Ether ETFs and added to positions in Riot Platforms, Coinbase, and Galaxy Digital, while trimming Strategy and several Bitcoin mining names. At press time, BTC traded at $79,783. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $80,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $78,800 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $80,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $80,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $80,500 and $81,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $80,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $80,000 level. There was a move below the $79,500 level. The price even dipped below $79,000. A low was formed at $78,720 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $81,250 swing high to the $78,720 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $79,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $80,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $81,250 swing high to the $78,720 low. The first key resistance is near the $80,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $80,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $80,700 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $81,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $82,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $80,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $79,200 level. The first major support is near the $78,800 level. The next support is now near the $78,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $76,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $79,200, followed by $78,800. Major Resistance Levels – $80,000 and $80,700.
The previous Bitcoin market top may not have been marked by a dramatic crash or obvious sell signal, but by a highly coordinated, sophisticated wave of whale distribution. While most participants were driven by optimism and bullish conviction, large holders were quietly offloading positions in a way that blended seamlessly into normal market activity. How Whale Distributed Bitcoin Without Triggering Warning Signals The Bitcoin market top last year was less obvious than in past cycles, unfolding through a quiet, highly coordinated wave of whale distribution. ForeDex on X revealed that at a time when BTC participants were filled with optimism and conviction, a whale moved roughly 30,000 BTC to exchanges over 10 days via Galaxy Digital. Meanwhile, most market participants failed to recognize the significance of these flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock: 100,000 BTC Vanish From Exchanges In Under 90 Days ForeDex explained that BTC was split into smaller amounts and distributed across multiple exchanges, unlike previous cycles. In earlier market tops, large flows often ranging from several thousand to 10,000 BTC were sent directly to platforms such as Coinbase, Binance, or Gemini in a single transaction, making these movements relatively easy to detect. However, after the ETF approval, market structure and trading behavior became more sophisticated. As selling pressure was distributed across different exchanges, the historical exchange-specific sell premium became less reliable. Even the well-known Coinbase-Binance Gap data no longer shows these traces as clearly as it used to. Ultimately, BTC market dynamics are evolving, and new patterns are constantly emerging. Even if some participants had identified unusual flows, the strong optimism and conviction at the peak would likely have led many to dismiss them. Bitcoin Could Face Another Liquidity Sweep To The Downside Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening market structure, with price forming lower highs following the rejection at $82,000. Crypto analyst Kaz has noted that one of the biggest warning signs is the sharp rise in Open Interest (OI) that is aggressively occurring, and both perpetual and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) are trending downward, indicating bullish traders are already starting to get squeezed out of the market. Related Reading: 14,600 Bitcoin Sold in Profit in One Day: Here Is How BTC’s Own Structure Broke It Below $80K At the same time, bears appear to be actively building short positions, a continuous liquidation that is adding fuel to the decline. Kaz argues that additional long positions could be flushed out, as perpetual and spot CVDs are currently declining, and there is still long liquidation at the downside. Currently, BTC is retesting the $80,000 level with the highest OI bearish positioning seen at this level so far. In the bullish case, if price holds above the $80,000 zone and CVD starts rising, the market could trigger a short squeeze back toward the $82,000 resistance. In the bearish scenario, a loss of the $80,000 level, combined with current weak internals, could lead to a liquidity sweep of the lows, with price potentially moving toward testing the point of weak order (pwO). Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has been everything the bulls hoped for, and that may be precisely the problem. Since bottoming out around $63,000 in early April, Bitcoin has posted a sequence of higher highs and higher lows and has now reclaimed $80,000. The structure looks bullish. However, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has now entered into deceptive territory. Bitcoin’s Uptrend May Be Hiding A Compression Phase Bitcoin’s price action is now forming an interesting but deceptive pattern. The pattern in question is a rising wedge that has been forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart since February. The setup was highlighted by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, who described Bitcoin’s current pattern as “the most deceptive pattern in crypto.” His chart places Bitcoin near the upper end of the wedge, with the $84,000 area acting as a key rejection zone. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 A rising wedge is formed when price action grinds upward along two converging trendlines, printing higher highs and higher lows in a narrowing channel. The pattern resembles an upward price trend where the market constantly hits higher levels and never falls below prior price lows before bouncing back on the surface. However, a rising wedge is known to resolve more bearishly than bullishly. The chart shared by Merlijn shows Bitcoin pushing upward inside this structure, with the upper wedge boundary sitting around $84,000. That area is the zone where bulls may face their biggest test. That makes the next move around the $80,000 to $84,000 area very important. A clean move above the upper boundary would weaken the bearish wedge argument. A rejection around $84,000, followed by a breakdown under $80,000, would open up the path to lower price levels. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X Crash Below $60,000? The $80,000 price level is now carrying both psychological and technical weight. Bitcoin recently reclaimed this level for the first time in months, helped by improving market sentiment. Merlijn’s chart turns that same level into the breakdown trigger. According to the outlook, a break below $80,000 would confirm weakness inside the wedge and open the way for a move down to $56,000. This does not mean Bitcoin is guaranteed to fall there, but it shows where the bearish projection comes from if the wedge resolves to the downside. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts When The XRP Price Will Rally To $12 At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,920 after moving between $79,879 and $81,227 over the past 24 hours. This narrow range shows that buyers are still active around the $80,000 level, preventing a clean breakdown below the zone for now. The price action has also kept Bitcoin from showing any major sign of distribution, as support continues to hold near the lower end of the range. All that needs to happen now for bullish momentum is a weekly close above $84,000. However, a weekly close below $80,000 could shift the setup in favor of the bearish path. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Physicist Giovanni Santostasi says Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory is not best understood as an S-curve, speculative bubble, or simple exponential trend, but as a power law similar to patterns found in cities, biology and other natural systems. Speaking with Nathalie Brunell on the May 12 episode of the Coin Stories podcast, the director of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute argued that Bitcoin’s historical data points to roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years. Santostasi explained his Bitcoin Power Law thesis in detail. His core claim is that Bitcoin’s price has followed a nonlinear mathematical relationship with time since the network’s early trading history. In his formulation, Bitcoin’s price is proportional to time raised to a power of roughly 5.8 to 5.9, often rounded to six. That exponent, he said, is not just a curve-fitting artifact but a “fingerprint” of the system. “With bitcoin we found a similar relationship where the price is proportional to the time,” Santostasi said. “So the age of bitcoin, how many years, you can measure it in days, you can measure it in years. And then you take the power and that power is 5.8.” Bitcoin Is Growing Like A City He acknowledged that Bitcoin remains volatile in the short term, with wars, crises and liquidity shocks producing large deviations. But he argued those moves are oscillations around a deeper trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak According to Santostasi, Bitcoin’s power law currently implies a central price level around $120,000, while the market has recently traded below that level. He said the lower statistical band, which he described as a kind of floor, is currently near $56,000 to $57,000. He also cited a correlation coefficient of 0.97 for the power law fit, arguing that only around 3% of Bitcoin’s long-term price variation is not described by the model. A key part of Santostasi’s thesis is that Bitcoin behaves more like a networked organism than a corporate asset. He compared Bitcoin to cities, which he said grow through bottom-up interaction and tend to endure far longer than corporations. Cities, in his telling, follow power laws because their value emerges from networks of people freely interacting, building and exchanging information. “Bitcoin is like a city,” Santostasi said. “Bitcoin is like tooth and nails and thorns and shells, these natural forms. To me, if you can simplify this message — and because it’s not poetry, it’s science actually, it’s based on data — it is one of the most convincing orange-pilling arguments that you can make.” The physicist contrasted that with exponential growth, which he associated with systems that expand quickly but eventually hit resource limits. He cited corporations as an example, saying most die within 150 years, while cities such as Rome can persist for millennia. That distinction led to one of the more provocative implications of the discussion: corporations backed by Bitcoin, Santostasi suggested, could theoretically become more city-like in their durability. “This is one of the reasons why I want Saylor to start adopting this language of a power law,” he said, referring to Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor. “He could say exactly that. We are turning corporations into cities.” Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Says The Bitcoin Bull Market Has Begun: $126,000 Is Next Santostasi also argued that Bitcoin’s address growth supports the thesis. He said Bitcoin addresses have grown as a power law with time cubed, while price reacts to address growth roughly according to a square relationship, similar to Metcalfe’s Law. Combining those two relationships, he said, produces the observed price relationship of time to the sixth power. “If you double the number of addresses, the price goes up to four,” Santostasi said. “If you triple it, it goes to nine. So it’s a power law with the square.” That framework also leads Santostasi to reject the common view that Bitcoin adoption should be modeled primarily as an S-curve, like refrigerators, televisions or other consumer technologies. Those products, he argued, are not networks in the same way Bitcoin is. Bitcoin’s social, monetary and technical layers make it closer to the internet or a city than to a household appliance. Still, Santostasi stopped short of presenting the forecast as certainty. Asked how confident he is that Bitcoin will reach roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years, he put the probability near 90%, while leaving room for failure conditions. He said continued capital inflows, larger institutional participation and new pools of capital are necessary for the path to remain intact. At press time, BTC traded at $80,963. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to hold $80,000 as support, some market analysts have warned about a crucial resistance area that could make or break the flagship crypto’s bullish rally. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Extend Six-Week Streak With $858M Inflows On CLARITY Act Progress Bitcoin Bull Rally Meets Key Resistance In a Tuesday analysis, market watcher Ali Martinez highlighted a “crucial resistance barrier that has the potential to put an end to the recent Bitcoin bull rally” that has sent the price to its highest levels in months. He explained that BTC has been attempting to clear the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $82,500, for three consecutive days. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward the $94,000 area, Martinez affirmed, while a rejection could send the price to retest the 50-day SMA around $75,000. However, the failure to reclaim this level may suggest that the market “is struggling to find the follow-through volume needed for a breakout.” The analyst pointed out that a recent shift in miners’ behavior could reinforce the resistance area above. Over the past month, Bitcoin miners have been steadily taking profits, offloading over 3,400 BTC they’ve held since the $72,000 range to cover operational costs or lock in gains at the recent highs. “This added supply could strengthen the overhead resistance,” he affirmed. Meanwhile, retail and futures traders are “aggressively increasing their risk appetite,” with the Estimated Leverage Ratio currently at a yearly peak, indicating an overextended market reliant on borrowed funds. Most of this leverage is skewed toward long positions, creating liquidation walls at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, Martinez added, warning that if Bitcoin can’t flip the $82,500 resistance into support, “the market may look to flush this leverage by testing those lower levels.” BTC Poised For Another Correction? Analyst Rekt Capital offered a macro perspective, suggesting Bitcoin may fail to reclaim the crucial resistance and fall to new lows in the coming months. He highlighted BTC’s breakdown from its macro triangle base around $82,500, which has sent the price retest the 50-month EMA. Historically, when Bitcoin breaks down from its macro triangle, the price retests its 50-month EMA as support and briefly bounces before dropping toward its bear market bottom. “On this occasion, (…) we’ve rebounded already. But history suggests that this rebound is going to be limited, and we’ll be losing the 50-month EMA as support and then turning it into resistance to transition into a cluster beneath it,” the analyst affirmed. Rekt Capital also emphasized that the 50-month EMA roughly aligns with the 2021 all-time high (ATH), which was a major resistance-turned-support area around the early 2024 ATH rally and opened the door to the 2025 run toward its latest ATH. Related Reading: Something Shocking Just Happened To The XRP Price, Analysts Are Using It To Make A Bold Prediction As Bitcoin retests this area as support once again and faces strong resistance around the macro triangle base, the analyst asserted that this rebound may be weaker, adding that history suggests the 50-month EMA support will likely be lost and turned into resistance. “That’s pretty compelling evidence to support the weaker rally thesis as well, because if we do reject from the confluent region of resistance, which is the macro downtrend and the macro triangle base, then indeed this rally (…) will be a lot lesser than the magnitude of that rally that we saw in 2024,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Ray Dalio has reopened one of crypto’s longest-running macro debates, arguing that Bitcoin still has not behaved like the safe-haven asset many investors expected it to become. The Bridgewater Associates founder said gold remains structurally superior as a reserve and crisis asset, drawing immediate pushback from Michael Saylor and several Bitcoin advocates. In a May 11 post on X, Dalio said Bitcoin “gets a lot of attention” but has not fulfilled the defensive portfolio role often assigned to it by supporters. His critique focused less on Bitcoin’s long-term price performance and more on market structure, privacy, correlation and reserve-asset adoption. “While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it.” Dalio then tied that transparency issue to Bitcoin’s behavior during market stress. “Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak The argument places Bitcoin in the risk-asset camp rather than the sovereign reserve-asset camp. In Dalio’s framing, a safe haven is not defined by scarcity alone, but by how widely it is held, how independently it trades under pressure, and whether major institutions, especially central banks, are structurally willing to own it. “Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system,” he wrote. That view is consistent with Dalio’s public stance over the past several years. In 2021, he called Bitcoin “one hell of an invention” and said there were few “alternative gold-like assets” at a time of rising demand for stores of value. But even then, he treated Bitcoin as an emerging, option-like monetary asset rather than a finished replacement for gold. More recently, Dalio has repeatedly favored gold over Bitcoin as a defensive asset. Business Insider reported in March 2026 that Dalio said Bitcoin would not seriously challenge gold as a safe haven, partly because central banks were unlikely to hold it as a reserve asset. Investopedia similarly reported that Dalio has acknowledged holding a small amount of crypto while continuing to prefer gold, citing concerns around privacy, government action and Bitcoin’s still-unproven role as a reserve currency. Bitcoin Community Reacts Michael Saylor, whose company Strategy has built its corporate identity around Bitcoin accumulation, rejected Dalio’s premise. “Gold is analog capital. Bitcoin is digital capital,” he wrote. “Transparency is a feature, not a bug, making BTC suitable as global collateral.” Saylor also argued that since Strategy adopted its Bitcoin standard on Aug. 10, 2020, Bitcoin had outperformed gold with a higher Sharpe ratio. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return Other responses challenged different parts of Dalio’s thesis. Samson Mow disputed the claim that Bitcoin lacks privacy, writing that Dalio needed to “educate” himself. Mert Mumtaz, the Helius CEO, pointed instead toward Zcash, posting: “look into Zcash and thank me later.” Anchorage researcher David Lawant framed Bitcoin’s current limitations as part of a longer monetization process: “Could it also be that BTC is just newer and that the monetization process of a commodity in the free market can take a long time? If so, this is actually a positive for forward-looking holders. It’s where asymmetric upside ultimately lies.” Bitcoin-firm River took the argument in a more user-centric direction, saying Bitcoin is already a safe haven for people and businesses whose purchasing power is being eroded by central banks. The firm argued that gold remains relevant but cannot be used digitally, moved across borders with the same ease, or integrated into payments in the way Bitcoin can. At press time, BTC traded at $80,268. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Eight Satoshi-era wallets moved 10,000 Bitcoin each in July last year, triggering waves of speculation across crypto markets. Now, another old wallet has come back to life — and traders are watching closely. Related Reading: Swiss Bitcoin Reserve Effort Withdrawn After Resistance From Central Bank A Long Wait Ends On Sunday, a Bitcoin address that had not seen any activity since November 2013 suddenly moved its entire holdings to a new wallet. Blockchain tracking service Whale Alert detected the transfer at around 19:16 UTC. The coins, worth roughly $40 billion at current prices, had been sitting untouched for more than a decade. Back when they were first acquired, Bitcoin traded at a fraction of what it does today. The sending address — 1KAA8GGhVjjUjVTz1HKAjCyGN…. — transferred the funds to bc1qm6m6d33d02edr0k8yj9jgt027zl6d….. No one has publicly claimed ownership of the original wallet. No explanation for the move has been offered either. ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? A dormant address containing 500 $BTC (40,717,094 USD) has just been activated after 12.5 years (worth 482,898 USD in 2013)!https://t.co/OBUcZ1rXQg — Whale Alert (@whale_alert) May 10, 2026 Where The Coins Went The destination address does not match any known cryptocurrency exchange. That detail matters to traders. When large Bitcoin sums move directly to exchange wallets, it often signals a potential sale. In this case, no such connection has been found. Reports indicate the transfer may point to a security update, a redistribution of holdings across separate addresses, or simply a long-dormant holder deciding to act after years of staying put. Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark in late 2024 and has held near record highs since. Data shows that older wallets have been reactivating at a higher rate over the past year. Holders who bought Bitcoin during its earliest days and never touched their coins appear to be reviewing their positions as prices climb. A Pattern Emerging This latest move fits a pattern that blockchain analysts have tracked for months. Wallets tied to Bitcoin’s early years have been waking up with increasing frequency. The July wave — when multiple Satoshi-era addresses each moved 10,000 BTC for the first time in 14 years — drew significant attention from the crypto community. Sunday’s transfer adds to that trend. Related Reading: XRP Funding Rates Hint At Repeat Of $3.6 Surge Scenario Markets have not reacted sharply. But traders will keep a close eye on the newly activated address. Large amounts of Bitcoin moved by unknown wallets rarely go unnoticed, and any follow-up activity will likely draw immediate scrutiny from analysts monitoring the chain. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s bull market has already started, arguing that a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI spending, wartime policy and infrastructure rearmament could push BTC back to $126,000. In his May 12 essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer framed crypto’s next leg higher as a macro liquidity trade rather than a narrow digital-asset story. His central claim is that governments and banks in the US and China are being pushed toward looser credit conditions by three overlapping forces: the AI arms race, military escalation, and a global shift away from just-in-time supply chains. “The bull market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,” Hayes wrote, tying Bitcoin’s recent outperformance to what he sees as the start of a new political regime for money creation. Hayes Points To AI, War And Fiat Expansion Hayes argued that AI infrastructure spending has become a national-security priority in both Washington and Beijing. In his view, that makes monetary restraint politically difficult, because the US and China both see machine intelligence as strategically decisive. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return He said the AI buildout is already moving beyond the cash flows of large technology companies and into the credit channel. That shift matters for crypto, Hayes argued, because banks and central banks will be pressured to support capital expenditure for data centers, electricity generation and AI infrastructure. “But in the here and now, dollar and yuan liquidity will continue to rise. And Bitcoin and crypto will benefit,” Hayes wrote. The essay leans heavily on the idea that AI investment is structurally inflationary and potentially self-reinforcing. Hayes invoked Jevons Paradox, arguing that cheaper intelligence will increase total compute consumption, and the “Red Queen Effect,” under which companies must keep spending because rival model improvements can quickly depreciate previous investment. In Hayes’ reading, the cycle ends only when markets reject a major AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US presidential race turns sharply against AI-driven inflation. Until then, he expects credit to keep expanding. Bitcoin Target: $126,000 Hayes said Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000 and argued that a return to $126,000 is now “a foregone conclusion.” He also identified $90,000 as a key level where he expects the rally to intensify, claiming that call over-writers could be forced to cover once the strike is breached. “I have no idea how high Bitcoin can go,” he wrote, adding that Maelstrom would take its portfolio to “maximum risk” unless conditions change materially. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak His thesis is not limited to AI. Hayes also argued that the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to commodity flows could push governments outside the US to rethink their dependence on dollar financial assets. According to the essay, countries that previously stored surpluses in Treasuries or US equities may instead redirect capital toward defense, energy, pipelines, food reserves and other physical infrastructure. That shift, he argued, would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be. Hayes pointed to possible dollar swap lines and looser bank capital rules as tools that could offset foreign selling of dollar assets without forcing an abrupt market repricing. Hayes closed the essay with a more explicit risk-on message for crypto markets. He said it is “time to shitcoin,” naming Hyperliquid’s HYPE and Zcash’s ZEC as already-large positions, while identifying NEAR as his next preferred trade. The NEAR thesis, he said, will be expanded in his next essay and will focus on the privacy narrative combined with Near intents. Hayes argued that this could create “a positive cash flow situation for the protocol” and potentially reverse the token’s weak long-term price performance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $80,680. Featured image created with DALL.E. chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $80,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $81,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $80,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $81,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $81,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Break Bitcoin price remained supported above the $80,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $80,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $80,650 and $80,800 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,100 swing high to the $79,844 low. However, the bears could be active near $81,250. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $81,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $80,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $81,250 level, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,100 swing high to the $79,844 low. The first key resistance is near the $82,000 level. A close above the $82,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $81,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,500 level. The first major support is near the $80,000 level. The next support is now near the $79,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $78,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $77,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,500, followed by $80,000. Major Resistance Levels – $81,500 and $82,000.
The massive surge in the Bitcoin price since April 2026 is still viewed as part of a broader bear market phase, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. While some market experts believe the rebound could signal a new bull run, CryptoQuant’s unrealized profit data show the numbers are nowhere near bull-market levels. Notably, as BTC’s value increases, rising selling pressure could threaten the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, potentially triggering a price breakdown. Profit-Taking Hits Three-Month Highs After Bitcoin Price Surge Bitcoin’s rally to $82,000 on May 6 came as a shock to the broader digital asset market, as that was the first time the cryptocurrency had reached that level since late January 2026. Initially, BTC broke above $81,000 on May 5 and pushed toward $82,000 the next day, only to be rejected. Now, after the surge, Julio Monero, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes that investors could be gearing up to take profit, potentially adding more volatility to the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Here Are The Major Bitcoin Levels To Watch After Breaking $80,000 Monero said in an analysis report that Bitcoin holders realized daily profits of up to 14,600 BTC on May 4, marking the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profits on a 30-day basis also surged, with holders realizing over 20,000 BTC. These numbers reinforce the analyst’s belief that selling pressure may be imminent. The CryptoQuant analyst also noted that Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 20% since the beginning of April, now trading around $80,000 after its latest rally. To some, this might look like a renewed and sustainable bull run. However, he described the move as a “bear market rally,” suggesting that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear trend despite recent price gains. Monero also revealed that BTC’s price surges since April have been fueled by easing macroeconomic pressures and an earlier undervaluation, which kept its price depressed all through January to March 2026. He added that a sharp increase in demand for perpetual futures has helped prop up BTC’s price, suggesting that much of the buying is probably driven by leveraged traders rather than fresh spot accumulation. All of these developments appear to be pushing the cryptocurrency’s price upward despite social and whale sentiment still firmly in the Fear territory. At the same time, price score and volatility indicators are flashing Greed, signaling that BTC’s rally is likely being driven by price action alone, rather than any meaningful or real shift in how investors actually feel about the market. Analyst Flags Upcoming Downside Risk For BTC In his report, Monero added that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized profit of over 20,000 BTC is still a long way from the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He believes the gap alone suggests the market could still have more pain ahead. Related Reading: Here’s The Next Major Bitcoin Resistance To Watch Out For Before A Crash Beyond the broader bear market and potential selling pressure, Monero also highlights specific warning signs that raise Bitcoin’s downside risk. He noted that while perpetual futures continue to climb, spot demand and exchange inflows remain weaker than expected. He described this setup as one that is “consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin continues to trend higher, demonstrating resilience despite short-term volatility and pressure from resistance. Rather than displaying signs of heavy distribution or aggressive selling, the market has maintained a constructive structure with shallow pullbacks and consistent higher highs, reinforcing confidence in the broader bullish trend. Strong Stability Of Bitcoin Above Key Levels Bitcoin is demonstrating significant resilience, according to analyst Sykodelic, who notes a lack of massive sell-offs or hard rejections. Instead, the market is producing higher highs following only minor pullbacks. BTC has successfully cleared multiple key levels and is currently consolidating to build the strength necessary for its next major expansion. Related Reading: Top Analyst Confirms The Bearish Target: Bitcoin Could Ease Down To $40,000 A pivotal technical milestone has been reached, as Bitcoin has remained above the Bull market support band for ten consecutive days. This zone, which incorporates the true market mean and Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, is now beginning to trend upward. This shift suggests that the primary trend is strengthening and providing a solid floor for current price action. BTC recently secured a daily close above the 200D EMA, a level that typically causes hard rejections in weak market structures. Sykodelic highlights that rather than failing at this resistance, Bitcoin is coiling up for another attempt. The broader financial landscape has shifted into a risk-on environment, further supporting the bullish case for crypto assets. Bitcoin’s ability to repeatedly test and hold near the 200D EMA suggests that the path of least resistance is now to the upside. Given this structural strength, Sykodelic anticipates that the $85,000 level will be breached, potentially within the current week. Such a move would represent a definitive breakout from the current range and signal the start of a more aggressive rally. Lower Timeframe Price Action Remains Choppy And Unclear In a recent market update, analyst Minga noted that price action on the lower timeframes (LTF) is currently disordered, lacking the clean structure necessary for high-conviction trading. Following a rejection from the weekly open, the market’s bias leans bearish. However, for a sustained bearish continuation to materialize, the price must remain suppressed below the critical $82,100 resistance region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Explodes Beyond 2025 All-Time High Levels On the downside, the $80,600 level has been identified as the primary local support zone. As long as the market successfully defends this floor, a potential recovery toward the $84,000 target remains a viable scenario. This creates a narrow range where the immediate trend is undecided, leaving the asset caught between a vital weekly resistance and a firm local support. Given the current lack of structural clarity, Minga suggests that the most prudent move is to remain patient for the market to provide more definitive confirmation regarding its directional intent for the remainder of the week. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com