THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

As market participants focus on short-term price movements, Bitcoin is approaching a notable on-chain milestone, with the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC climbing toward record levels. This growing concentration of high-value holdings reflects increasing accumulation by large investors, and is viewed as a sign of strong long-term confidence in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. How Large Holders Influence Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Bitcoin is approaching a major milestone, with the number of wallet addresses holding at least 100 BTC set to surpass 20,000. An on-chain analytics firm, Santiment, highlighted on X that at current market valuations, a wallet holding 100 BTC or more is valued at roughly $6.78 million, indicating these addresses are largely controlled by high-net-worth individuals, funds, long-term holders, and institutional participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Underwater As Supply In Loss Spikes, Reaching Historic Extremes When the number of 100+ BTC wallets increases during or shortly after price declines, as it has been recently, it can be considered a bullish signal. While the number of whale wallets is rising, the overall percentage of BTC supply held by key stakeholders has not meaningfully increased. This helps explain why prices have remained suppressed. However, the growth in 100+ BTC wallets indicates broader distribution among large holders rather than a small group controlling the consolidation. In that sense, it points to less extreme consolidation at the very top. At the same time, it also shows that wealth is clearly migrating from smaller retail wallets into stronger hands. This does not signal decentralization at the smallest ownership level, but it does show that more separate entities are reaching the whale status. Historically, expanding whale wallet counts have often appeared during accumulation phases that later support the price recoveries. For a stronger structural shift to occur, the increase in wallet numbers would need to be matched by a rise in the overall supply they control. That dynamic typically unfolds as retail participants slowly sell off their coins to larger wallets. Meanwhile, history has shown that if retail traders eventually panic-sell or take profit too early, it might lead to the absorption stage. Is This A True Rebound Or A Dead Bounce? Bitcoin adoption is picking up pace across the sector. According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) just recorded their strongest day, pulling in roughly $500 million in a single day, reaching $750 million over the past two days combined at the time the report was published. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap Balchunas views the inflows as “a hitter in a slump going yard,” suggesting the market had been in urgent need of a catalyst after a prolonged period of weak performance. The strong back-to-back inflows have helped ease pressure on the sector, pushing year-to-date ETF outflows to under $2 billion. Despite the sharp turnaround, uncertainty remains about whether the inflow spike represents the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a temporary bounce. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Fidelity Digital Assets argues Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted enough that the familiar four-year boom-bust pattern and the brutal 80% drawdowns that often followed, may no longer be the default outcome. In a Feb. 24 research note titled “Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?” research analyst Zack Wainwright frames the call around a simple observation: Bitcoin is now a very different-sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs Bitcoin’s market cap at an all-time high of roughly $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, alongside signs of deeper liquidity and a steadier volatility regime than prior cycles. “As bitcoin matures, price behavior is diverging from previous cycles. Volatility decreasing even as price reached new highs above $126,000.” Bitcoin Demand Is Being Re-Shaped Fidelity’s volatility argument leans on one-year realized volatility and how it behaved around cycle peaks. In prior cycles, the pattern was broadly consistent: volatility would compress into new lows ahead of a major upside move toward new highs, then expand as the cycle overheated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says This time, Fidelity says the compression is arriving sooner after the peak. The note points to 17 new all-time lows in one-year realized volatility logged in January 2026—just months after Bitcoin notched fresh all-time highs in October 2025—calling it a meaningful divergence from the cadence of earlier cycles. The team attributes part of that dampening to scale: Bitcoin is about twice the market cap it was at the 2021 peak, roughly 10x 2017’s peak, and over 200x 2013’s. The second pillar is who is holding supply, and how sticky that demand appears. Fidelity highlights a cohort of 49 public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC each, with combined holdings above 1 million BTC, over 5% of circulating supply. It also notes that, since Q1 2020, this group increased holdings quarter-over-quarter in every quarter except Q2 2022, when Tesla sold a large portion of its position. On the ETF side, Fidelity writes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC as of Jan. 30, 2026, about 6.4% of circulating supply. The note adds that the category leader surpassed $75 billion in assets under management in under two years, contrasting that pace with gold’s flagship ETF, GLD, which took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. Together, Fidelity says public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of circulating supply, with most of the growth coming after 2023—a demand shift the team views as structurally important for drawdowns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases Fidelity also argues the cycle has looked “notably stable” across several on-chain and issuance-linked measures. Using a profit-window framework, when addresses in profit first exceed 95% through the last time they remain above 95%, the note says MVRV has stayed roughly around two times realized value through most of the bull market, rather than spiking toward four-to-six times as in earlier cycles. The report flags a counterfactual to illustrate the point: if market cap reached four times realized cap in this cycle, it would imply roughly a $4.5 trillion market cap and about $225,000 per BTC as of Feb. 2, 2026. It also notes the Puell Multiple has stayed close to one, signaling daily issuance value hasn’t meaningfully deviated from its one-year average. Fidelity’s new “Profit to Volatility Ratio” is where the drawdown claim becomes explicit. The team sets 0.01 as a stability line and says the ratio has stayed above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained period at those levels in Bitcoin’s history. Even with a February 2026 downturn that pushed BTC below $70,000, the ratio remained above the threshold. “A measurement above 0.01 can be considered very stable. Conversely, a measurement below 0.01 should be viewed with caution.” The implication, Fidelity suggests, is not that volatility disappears—but that the classic cycle-ending wipeouts may be less likely in a market increasingly shaped by institutional channels and a larger, more liquid base. If that regime holds, the next phase could look less like a blow-off top and more like a slower, more methodical repricing, higher over time, but with fewer cliff-edge resets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,677. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Expert trader Tony Severino, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s top, has raised the possibility of a crash to $4,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to break key resistance levels, signaling that it could be at risk of a deeper decline.  Expert Trader Raises Potential Bitcoin Drop To $4,000 In an X post, Tony Severino questioned the possibility that the next Bitcoin bull market is a lower high followed by a lower low. His accompanying chart showed BTC may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could spark a crash to $4,000. As such, he urged market participants to play the range and cycles.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 5TH Wave Is Not Over Yet, And Price Could Still Crash To $52,000; Analyst Warns When asked about a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, the expert trader said it’s more speculative because the idea of a bottom can change over time. However, he noted that BTC is bottoming now on shorter timeframes and that on the longest timeframes, it could still take a while.  Severino also recently stated that he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, implying a bottom at around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $40,000 before it finds a bottom. Notably, BTC continues to struggle, suggesting it remains at risk of a deeper decline despite the recent relief rally to $70,000.  In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold. The platform added that this pattern is consistent with a thin-liquidity regime, in which even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.  How BTC Could Drop To $30,000 In This Bear Market Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market between 2009 and 2026. He warned that if the global macro breaks down, then the $30,000 level is the fallback level of support. The analyst highlighted $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? However, Willy Woo believes $45,000 would be a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that this bearish sell-off by investors appears to have been exhausted, which may allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month and possibly rebound to the mid $70,000 range. However, this level would likely be rejected.  The analyst explained that this is because the broader regime is heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Willy Woo predicts that Q4 would be a good time for the end of the bearish trend and that Q1 or Q2 2027 would be an appropriate time for bullish momentum to return.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Following the Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 in early February, the question on the lips of every investor is when the bleed will end. To this end, a number of analysts have shared their expectations and predictions for where the Bitcoin bottom might be. Some have posited that the worst is over, while others have suggested that there are still more crashes to come. Following the latter trend, crypto analyst Plan C has shared why they believe the Bitcoin price has finally reached a bottom. Bitcoin 80-90% Crash Not Possible This Time Around In previous cycles, when the Bitcoin market had gone from a bull run to a bear market, there have been varying degrees of crashes that were experienced before the bottom was established. Over the last few bear markets, these have been around 80-90% crashes, often spurred by major events surrounding the market. Following this trend, expectations remain that Bitcoin might also see a similar crash, which would mean that the bear market is far from over. However, crypto analyst Plan C has combated this idea, as he believes that bitcoin will not repeat the exact same trend seen before. Related Reading: XRP Price Turns Completely Bearish, But Is A Crash To $1 Still Possible? Instead of the 80-90% crash that is expected to put Bitcoin somewhere around the $25,000-$30,000 range, the analyst says that Bitcoin will only crash 50-60% this cycle. If this is correct, it would mean that Bitcoin is not far from registering a bottom at this point. Going by this, his forecast, this would put the Bitcoin price bottom somewhere between $50,000 and $63,000. Given that the BTC price had previously fallen below $63,000, it means that the bottom might be in, or close to it. Such a deviation would mean that Bitcoin would no longer be following the established 4-year cycle trend. This is not a new theory, as analysts in the past have suggested that the digital asset began deviating from the 4-year cycle when it hit a new all-time high back in early 2024, before the halving. This was triggered by institutional entry through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, bringing about a new wave of bull runs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lows: Analyst Says We’re Doomed If This Happen While predictions continue to fly around the crypto community and speculations about what price Bitcoin will bottom at, it remains a matter of time to see what eventually happens. For now, the bulls continue to put up a fight in a bid to send the price above $70,000 again. But sentiment remains firmly negative as the Fear & Greed Index continues to sit in Extreme Fear. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $68,000. BTC is now consolidating above $66,250 and might aim for more gains above $68,800. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,200 support. The price is trading above $67,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,250 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips To Support Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $68,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,800 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,000 level. There is also a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $68,250 level. A close above the $68,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $70,500 and $71,200. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,000 level. The first major support is near the $66,250 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $65,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $65,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,000, followed by $66,500. Major Resistance Levels – $68,000 and $68,500.

Bitcoin spot trading activity has fallen to its weakest level of the year even as a fresh CryptoQuant signal suggests one important pocket of selling pressure may be starting to fade. Darkfost, a contributor at CryptoQuant, said February is on pace to finish as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot volumes since the start of 2024. He tied that slowdown to a broader retreat in risk appetite as traders pull back from directional exposure and wait for firmer macro or technical confirmation. “February is on track to close as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot trading volumes since the beginning of 2024. This comes alongside BTC’s price revisiting levels last seen in 2024 as well,” Darkfost wrote on X. “The current climate of uncertainty surrounding BTC has pushed investors toward a more defensive stance, resulting in a marked reduction in risk-taking.” Bitcoin Liquidity Keeps Thinning Out The scale of the slowdown is visible across the major venues. Darkfost said Binance still leads by a wide margin with nearly $75 billion in February spot volume, ahead of Gate.io at $25 billion and Bybit at $20 billion. Even so, that dominance has not insulated Binance from the broader contraction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high in October, monthly spot volumes have been roughly cut in half across the largest exchanges, according to the post. Binance fell from $198 billion to $75 billion, Gate.io from $53 billion to $25 billion, and Bybit from $41 billion to $20 billion. Rather than an exchange-specific issue, Darkfost framed the move as a market-wide pullback in participation. He also linked the deterioration in liquidity to the aftermath of the Oct. 10 shock, when open interest dropped by more than 70,000 BTC, or roughly $8 billion, in a sharp reset of leveraged exposure. In his telling, that event did not just hit derivatives positioning. It appears to have accelerated a broader disengagement from crypto trading activity. “This phase of disengagement is directly reflected in the steady decline in spot trading volumes observed across major exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. “This dynamic points to a generalized trend affecting all major exchanges.” That matters because spot flows tend to carry more weight when traders are looking for evidence of durable demand rather than fast-moving leverage. A recovery built on stronger spot participation generally looks sturdier than one driven mainly by derivatives. Coinbase Pressure Shows Signs Of Easing Against that weak backdrop, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to a more constructive short-term signal: “Selling pressure on Coinbase is easing.” The chart shows the Coinbase Premium Index moving back into positive territory after spending most of the time in February below zero (with a few exceptions). By the latest reading on the chart, the premium had recovered to roughly 0.006 while Bitcoin traded near $68,300. This suggests the discount on Coinbase relative to offshore venues has narrowed, easing one sign of US-led sell pressure. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says That does not contradict Darkfost’s broader caution. If anything, the two signals fit together. Spot liquidity remains thin and the market is still operating in a low-conviction environment, but one of the more closely watched measures of immediate selling intensity is no longer deteriorating. Darkfost was explicit about what would need to change for the picture to improve in a more meaningful way. “As it stands, this simultaneous contraction in spot volumes reflects a structurally cautious market phase, where participants prioritize capital preservation over directional exposure while awaiting clearer macroeconomic or technical signals. For a bullish recovery to materialize, or for a durable bottom to form, stronger spot volume support will be essential.” For now, that leaves Bitcoin in a familiar late-cycle holding pattern: sellers may be backing off on Coinbase, but without a broader return of spot demand, the market still lacks the depth that usually underpins a stronger move. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,153. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is now inching towards $70,000, but there is enough to worry about around $64,000. Crypto analyst Tara expressed concern that Bitcoin’s fifth wave may not be complete, with a prediction that further downside could still be ahead.  In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that the current move could either be the start or the final stretch of a fifth wave decline, and there’s still a possibility of the Bitcoin price falling to as low as $52,000. Double Bottom Support At $59,900 And $60,500 Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Tara shows that Bitcoin has built a major support around the $59,900 to $60,500 range. This area is based on prior swing lows and a visible double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick price chart. It also coincides with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels projected from above $70,000. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? According to the analyst, Bitcoin could see a strong reaction if the price were to fall to that region. A bounce from this support could drive the Bitcoin price back to $64,400, which would then be tested as resistance instead of support. However, such a rebound may only be temporary. If the macro fifth wave structure continues to play out, the market could still be setting up for one final push lower after that retest. According to Tara’s wave interpretation, this final push lower could extend to as low as $52,000.  This level is not yet fixed and will be remeasured as price action develops, but it represents a possible completion zone for the broader fifth wave. It is important to note that Bitcoin actually managed to hold above $60,000 throughout February, so therefore, the outlook to $52,000 is a worst-case scenario. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour timeframe is trending lower and approaching oversold territory. Tara advised traders to watch for bullish divergence on the RSI during the next drop. A bullish divergence on the RSI could be the first sign of the end of the corrective structure. Bitcoin Might Register Higher Support At $64,000 Over the past few weeks, the $64,000 region has stood out as a decisive pivot for Bitcoin, repeatedly flipping between support and resistance depending on the direction of price. In a separate update, Tara highlighted that Bitcoin recently backtested the macro 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64,400 as resistance before attempting to push higher. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Reclaiming $64,000 would be an important step toward reversing the current bearish macro trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,220, up 4% over the past 24 hours. Even so, there is still a risk of a pullback.  A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the short-term recovery and could expose the prior swing low at $60,500. On the flip side, bullish momentum would be confirmed if Bitcoin breaks above $70,000. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

A prominent market commentator has projected that the Bitcoin price could climb as high as $500,000, citing the reappearance of a long-observed moving average ribbon pattern on the monthly chart. The forecast, shared by Egrag Crypto on X, ties price structure to specific time windows in 2026 and 2028, arguing that technical alignment is outweighing short-term market narratives.pl Bitcoin Price Ribbon Setup Signals Expansion Phase At the center of the $500,000 prediction is the reformation of a multi-layer moving average ribbon on the one-month timeframe. The chart provided by the analyst shows the 33 EMA, 66 MA, 80 EMA, and 100 EMA compressing and beginning to expand in a configuration that has historically marked major cycle transitions. Related Reading: Pundit Gives Reasons Why XRP Price Will Hit $10 In 2026 This structure is not presented in isolation. In previous cycles, similar ribbon compressions were followed by decisive impulsive advances. The analyst points to an earlier period on the chart when the price consolidated within the ribbon before accelerating sharply upward, forming a pattern that now appears to be repeating. Because this setup mirrors prior cycle behavior, he characterizes it as a fractal, indicating structural similarity across different market phases. The ribbon’s position relative to current price action reinforces the broader thesis. Bitcoin remains structurally above the layered averages, a condition that in earlier cycles preceded sustained upside rather than distribution. When price reclaimed and held above this cluster in the past, expansion phases followed. Based on those historical expansion multiples, the analyst outlines an intermediate target near $150,000 and extends the upper boundary of the move toward $500,000. This framework deliberately shifts focus away from sentiment-driven fluctuations. Instead, the moving averages are treated as objective markers of where Bitcoin stands within its long-term cycle, forming the analytical foundation for the half-million-dollar projection. Timing Window Points To 2026 And Late 2028 Alignment Building on the structural case, the forecast also incorporates a defined timeline. The chart highlights October 2026 as a key waypoint, aligning with a potential continuation phase if the emerging ribbon fractal develops in line with historical precedent. Beyond that initial window, a second period is identified around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2028. The analyst references election cycles as a contextual factor, suggesting that macro narrative and technical structure could converge during that timeframe. Related Reading: The Multi-Year XRP Bull Market That Could Change Everything Forever The projected path on the chart reflects this staged process. Rather than a single vertical surge, it outlines a series of consolidations followed by accelerations, echoing previous cycles before peak expansion. By integrating price structure with calendar timing, the projection frames the $500,000 target as the culmination of a repeatable cyclical pattern. In this context, the ribbon fractal is positioned not as speculative optimism, but as the structural roadmap underpinning the analyst’s expectation of a potential surge toward half a million dollars. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades. Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin? Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers. “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.” The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.” That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand. “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress. The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Other Experts Agree Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.” That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry. Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.” Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price action over the last few months has been unpredictable. But one thing has been clear, and that is the fact that bears have remained firmly in control of the price action. From here, there are a number of ways that the Bitcoin price could play out, with most speculations pointing toward a possible recovery. However, there are levels that the Bitcoin price must maintain in order to actualize this recovery or risk losing ground to bears. Bitcoin Price Needs To Hold Above $60,000 Crypto Analyst Swallow Academy, in a recent analysis, showed that the $60,000 level has become one of the most important support points for the Bitcoin price. This is because this was the lowest point of the early February crash, suggesting that bears may want to retest it again. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu: What Meme Coin Should You Buy For Most Returns In 2026? Given this, it has become imperative that bulls hold this in order to activate another recovery trend. In this case, if bulls are able to successfully defend the price and hold above $60,000, triggering a reclaim of buy-side volume, then a recovery will follow. The analyst predicts that such a recovery would see the Bitcoin price bounce back to the $70,000-$75,000 area. As a result, the major city of liquidity would be wiped out. After this, a downtrend would eventually begin, which would be the natural path for such a trend. However, in the case of bulls failing to hold $60,000 and buy-side pressure fails, then sell-side pressure is expected to rise. This scenario would see the Bitcoin price begin to dip faster than expected and trigger another crash trend, to push it toward new yearly lows. Related Reading: What To Expect For Ripple’s XRP If A Retail Run Were To Happen Swallow Academy’s analysis posits that a break of the local lows would result in another very deep move to lower lows. While this is not entirely bearish, as the price is expected to recover from lows, the chart shows that the Bitcoin price could dip below $44,000 before a local bottom is then established. Currently, Bitcoin bulls have mounted a notable defense above $62,000, suggesting that this is the next level to beat for bears. Alternatively, the previous cycle low lies at $61,354, and a break below this point would be the first time that Bitcoin has done this in history. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a sharp rebound in the Bitcoin price that pushed the digital asset close to the $70,000 level once again. Bitcoin climbed roughly 8% on the day, approaching a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month. The renewed strength was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) advanced 12%, XRP gained 8%, and Solana (SOL) surged 13%, reflecting a wider return of risk appetite across digital assets.  Bitcoin Price Nears $70K As Altcoins Outperform Market experts suggest the bounce may be driven largely by investors stepping in after an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the upward move likely reflects dip-buying activity following the recent selloff.  She added that a decisive move back above $70,000 for the Bitcoin price could alter the broader market narrative, potentially restoring confidence after weeks of pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be In A Price Slump—But Adoption Is In A Bull Market Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. Although demand for cryptocurrencies in the US has softened in recent weeks, it seems that capital is now rotating into altcoins, as evidenced by the gains made by ETH, XRP and SOL, which have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 24 hours.  Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack, noted that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the context of the broader financial system. When liquidity conditions tighten, he said, volatility tends to increase.  In that environment, assets such as Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that were previously driven primarily by momentum. Still, some analysts caution against interpreting the rebound as a definitive turning point.  Is Bitcoin Forming A New Bottom? Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, drew comparisons to the market environment in 2022, when a steep decline was followed by months of sideways consolidation before a sustained recovery eventually took hold.  He observed that after the 2022 Bitcoin price downturn, it took more than a year for the market to regain and surpass prior highs, suggesting patience may be required this time as well. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, offered a nuanced view in his latest Bitcoin price outlook. He argued that the most intense phase of downside pressure is likely already behind the market.  Among the supportive signals he cited were Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average (MA) and realized price, historically important technical levels.  Related Reading: Expert Forecasts $5 Trillions Pouring Into Crypto Post CLARITY Act Passage In addition, more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently underwater, the relative strength index has reached levels often associated with capitulation, and several other on-chain indicators are flashing signs that a bottom may be forming. However, Thorn also warned that even if the worst of the decline has passed, further challenges could lie ahead for the Bitcoin price. He said that market bottoms typically take time to fully develop, and prolonged sideways movement remains a possibility.  A downturn in equities could exert additional pressure on digital assets, and the broader market still appears to lack a strong catalyst to drive sustained upside momentum.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a major increase above $68,000. BTC is now struggling to clear the $70,000 resistance and might correct some gains. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,000 support. The price is trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,500 and $67,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Rallies 10% Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $68,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price is now correcting gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $69,200 level. A close above the $69,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,200 and $72,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,500 level. The first major support is near the $67,200 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high. The next support is now near the $66,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $67,500, followed by $67,200. Major Resistance Levels – $68,500 and $69,200.

According to a new forecast from an Elliott Wave analyst, the Bitcoin price could be gearing up for more pain as bearish pressures continue to weigh heavily on it. As a final bear market move, the analyst has projected that Bitcoin could crash by more than 14% from its current price near $65,000.  Bitcoin Price Readies For Final Bear Market Plunge Elliott Wave Strategy, a market expert on X who focuses primarily on Elliott Wave structures and analysis, has warned that Bitcoin is entering its final leg down of its current bear market cycle. In his updated post, the analyst declared that BTC’s corrective Wave 4 structure has ended precisely as projected. He summarized the outlook bluntly, stating that the relief phase is finally over and Wave 5 is now in motion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance To Experience Major Crash? Pundit Shares What This Would Mean The accompanying TradingView chart shows Wave 5 beginning at the end of a triangle formation, which marked Wave 4. The projected target for the final wave has been clearly defined, with the first measured move expected to drag Bitcoin’s price down toward the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level at $60,385.  Elliott Wave Strategy has also forecasted a potential market bottom. He expects Bitcoin to decline further to the next bearish target at $55,759, marked by the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Based on the expert’s analysis, BTC’s current structure shows no clear signs of a possible recovery until it completes its correction. As a result, the analyst has urged investors and traders to brace for the potential decline to $55,759, which could wipe out more than 55% of BTC’s value from its ATH levels above $126,000.  A Recap Of Bitcoin’s Wave 4 Performance Based on the wave count displayed on the Elliott Wave Strategy’s chart, Bitcoin has already completed Waves 1 through 4 of a five-wave bearish impulse. The structure shows an earlier price breakdown from above $90,000, slicing through the 0.382 retracement at $90,601 before accelerating below $75,300, which coincided with the 0.5 retracement level. Following this, Bitcoin continued its downward spiral below the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement at $71,689.20, marking the start of the Wave 4 consolidation.  Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 In a previous analysis, Elliott Wave Strategy noted that Bitcoin had already entered its corrective Wave 4 structure as of February 12. He warned that the temporary rally above $71,000 that preceded the onset of Wave 4 should not be mistaken for a new bull market cycle, reinforcing his predominantly bearish stance on BTC.  The now-completed Wave 4 triangle has been capped by descending resistance near $70,000 and supported by a rising trendline around $66,000. Elliott Wave Strategy characterized this trendline as a classic bearish continuation pattern, suggesting further downside pressure for BTC’s already weak price. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a sign of the growing convergence between traditional finance and digital assets, Emirates NBD is reportedly exploring the addition of Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. The development reflects a broader shift in institutional strategy, as major financial institutions increasingly recognize BTC’s potential role in portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and long-term value preservation. Why Emirates NBD Is Exploring Bitcoin Integration Emirates NBD, one of the largest banks in the United Arab Emirates but frequently described as the UAE’s second-largest bank, is actively evaluating whether to add Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. Crypto market commentator MartyParty has mentioned on X that the news stems directly from comments by Maurice Gravier, the Group Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Emirates NBD, during an appearance on CNBC Squawk Box. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees “Most Aggressive” Institutional Selling Ever, Analyst Says Gravier’s key points were viewing BTC as digital gold and framing it primarily as a store of value rather than merely an alternative currency. He noted that Bitcoin has matured significantly, citing its proof-of-work security model, limited supply, and structurally low inflation rate as attributes that enhance its appeal to institutional investors. Furthermore, Gravier has suggested that BTC’s current valuation appears more attractive compared to six months ago, when the price was considered relatively high. According to MartyParty’s summary, the bank has an internet model, and indicates that BTC could reasonably approach the $100,000 range within the next 12 months. However, the projections are still being refined. The Emirates NBD’s bank asset management division reportedly oversees approximately $16 billion in assets, and any potential allocation would be limited in size and used for diversification purposes. Nonetheless, with no final decision or execution, it is still under review amid ongoing market volatility. This consideration has highlighted a growing institutional interest in BTC across traditional finance in the Middle East. How Businesses Are Using BTC Payments At Scale While individuals are focused on Bitcoin dropping to $63,000, with the price down 50% from its high, a major milestone in its underlying network activity last week has largely gone unnoticed. Crypto analyst Fernando Nikolić pointed out that the Lightning Network surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time, reaching approximately $1.17 billion across 5.2 million transactions in November. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The data shows that the average transaction size nearly doubled year-over-year from $118 to $223, indicating that this is not just micropayment experimentation. Nikolić believes that businesses are using it, and exchanges are moving real money through it. In other words, its actual usage as a payment network just hit an all-time high. In his view, both realities can coexist and underscore a broader disconnect between market narratives and underlying network fundamentals. Also, Nikolić noted that the adoption milestone has received relatively little attention because it challenges the dominant bearish storyline surrounding the BTC price action. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst BitQuant has commented on why market participants are not buying Bitcoin and Ethereum despite the recent lows. This comes amid current market weakness, with the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warning of a deeper decline.  Why Investors Are Not Buying The Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip  In an X post, BitQuant noted that no one, except Saylor’s Strategy, is buying Bitcoin at $65,000 because of reports that the U.S. may attack Iran. He added that if that happens, many believe that BTC will drop to $50,000, which is why they are not buying. Ethereum is expected to drop further if BTC declines.  Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week The analyst noted that these market participants are forgetting that Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $60,000 without any news or headlines, and that they consider this nuance unimportant. As such, he suggested that BTC and Ethereum could still see lower prices, whether or not the U.S. attacks Iran.  However, BitQuant indicated that current prices do not matter in the long-term as Bitcoin and possibly Ethereum are likely to trade higher. He stated that many still don’t understand that BTC is a system and that they only see it as an asset. The analyst added that for many, BTC resembles a football match where they celebrate when there is a goal and leave the stadium when there isn’t. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market are currently facing downside pressure not only due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran but also due to the uncertainty around the Trump tariffs. The U.S. president over the weekend announced plans to hike the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).   BTC Could Still Drop Below $40,000 A CryptoQuant analysis recently suggested that Bitcoin could still drop below $40,000 to around $38,900, which is the long-term holders’ (LTHs) cost basis. The analysis also alluded to historical precedent, noting that each bear market has been characterized by BTC’s price breaking below its cost basis. This triggers a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 The analysis also noted that it is only after this phase that the market has been able to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new highs. Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analysis mentioned that the Coinbase Premium Index shows limited signs of recovery.  The index’s 30-minute simple moving average had briefly crossed above the zero level but failed to maintain the momentum into the new week. CryptoQuant stated that this lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Coinbase says Bitcoin’s near-term path may hinge on two price zones: roughly $82,000 on the upside and $60,000 on the downside. In a new X post outlining its BTC “practical playbook,” the exchange argues that combining structural support/resistance bands with options gamma exposure sharpens the trading map for whether BTC is more likely to mean-revert, break out, or accelerate lower. The core framework starts with Coinbase’s previously shared heatmap of “real supply and demand levels,” built by aggregating market structure pivot points and volume into price bands. In that setup, the densest support cluster sits near $60,000, while the first dense resistance band sits around $82,000. Coinbase describes those areas as zones where market interest has already been established and where “significant pools of resting liquidity typically gather.” Why Bitcoin Gamma Changes The Read This week’s addition is gamma exposure (GEX), which Coinbase frames as a way to map how options dealers’ hedging flows may either absorb volatility or amplify it. The firm calls the options market a “hidden liquidity provider” and says GEX helps investors decide whether conditions favor range trades or breakout trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs Coinbase explains the mechanism in practical terms: when dealers are long gamma, their hedging tends to lean against price moves; when they are short gamma, hedging can reinforce the move. “In positive gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior often looks like a shock absorber because if BTC rises, dealers sell spot (or sell futures) to stay hedged. If BTC falls, they buy to rebalance. That ‘sell strength / buy weakness’ pattern reduces realized volatility and increases the odds of consolidation and ‘pinning’ around nearby strike clusters.” It then contrasts that with the negative-gamma regime. “In negative gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior can flip into a trend amplifier. Rising BTC prices force hedgers to buy more while falling prices force hedgers to sell more. That ‘buy strength / sell weakness’ loop can turn ordinary breaks into fast repricing and liquidation-style cascades.” After layering GEX onto its pivot map, Coinbase’s conclusion is straightforward but consequential. “$82k remains the first gate to unlock further upside, while $60k appears to be the shelf that must hold to prevent accelerated downside,” the post says. It ties that to a “pronounced negative gamma band” in the $60,000–$70,000 region and “meaningful positive gamma pockets” around $85,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ That combination shapes the regime expectations. Coinbase says downside into $60,000 can accelerate because negative gamma may amplify selling pressure, while upside toward $90,000 may be more prone to grinding and pinning as positive gamma hedging dampens momentum. How Coinbase Frames The Setups The playbook’s scenario analysis reflects that asymmetry. Around $82,000, Coinbase treats first-touch rejection as a credible risk in a dense supply zone, especially without a clear macro catalyst. If BTC fails there, it says mean reversion becomes the higher-probability expression and warns breakout chasers can get trapped. By contrast, a clean break above $82,000 is not defined by a brief spike but by “acceptance” — reclaiming the level, holding it, and using it as support. Coinbase argues that would suggest supply has been absorbed and raise continuation odds into higher liquidity bands, while still acknowledging the positive gamma pocket above could increase chop risk. The $60,000 zone is framed even more carefully. Coinbase says it prefers long exposure only after a reclaim signal if BTC flushes into that area, rather than trying to catch the initial move lower, because negative gamma can make the path “violent and prone to overshooting.” If $60,000 fails and BTC cannot reclaim it, Coinbase says the break could mark another “regime change” where downside extends faster than discretionary dip buyers expect. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $65,026. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is sitting at a decisive inflection point. After losing key support and pressing into range extremes, the market now faces a clear binary outcome: reclaim the range highs and shift momentum back to the upside, or fail and extend toward new weekly lows. The next move from here will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Bitcoin Tests Range Extremes Currently, Bitcoin is navigating a period of high tension as it tests its range extremes, a phase that analyst Lennaert Snyder notes can feel intimidating for many traders. However, these moments of extreme volatility often serve as the foundation for the highest-quality setups.  Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ The current strategy remains patient, focusing on a Market Structure Break (MSB) as the primary prerequisite for entering a long position. On the H4 timeframe, the specific level to watch is the $66,590 high. Gaining and holding this level would signal a shift in momentum, providing the initial green light for bulls to step in.  While the $66,590 mark is the first hurdle, the true pivot for a structural bullish flip sits at approximately $68,000. This level is of paramount importance because it hosts the Point of Control (POC) for the entire range. Reclaiming this zone would shift the narrative from a defensive to an offensive posture, confirming that buyers have regained control of the value area. If Bitcoin successfully regains the $68,000 level, it opens a clear path to the $71,422 resistance. Beyond that, the ultimate objective for this move would be the massive liquidity cluster sitting at $76,971. Thus, the $68,000 zone is also a critical area for bears as it could become a prime short entry following a confirmed rejection. Conversely, the market must account for the possibility of a bull trap at the lower resistance levels. If Bitcoin sweeps the $66,590 high only to be met with a sharp rejection, it would suggest that the rally was merely a liquidity grab. Such a failure would likely trigger an aggressive short-selling wave, potentially driving the price down to establish new weekly lows. $65,000 Support Lost — Momentum Shifts Lower In a recent update, Ted noted that Bitcoin has now broken below the key $65,000 support zone, shifting short-term momentum back in favor of the bears. Losing this level weakens the immediate structure and opens the door for further downside exploration. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts That said, significant bid liquidity is stacked between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a potential demand pocket. However, whether that zone holds may largely depend on broader market conditions, particularly how the stock market behaves in the coming sessions. Given the current setup, a sweep of the $60K lows appears increasingly likely before any meaningful reversal attempt. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $65,000 and dipped further. BTC is now recovering losses from $62,500 and faces hurdles near the $66,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $65,000 support. The price is trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Recovers Some Ground Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $66,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $65,000 support zone. There was a push below $64,000. The price even spiked below $63,000. A low was formed at $62,500, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $65,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,654 swing high to the $62,500 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $66,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $67,200 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,654 swing high to the $62,500 low. A close above the $67,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $68,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $69,200 and $69,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $66,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level. The next support is now near the $64,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $63,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,500, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $66,500 and $67,200.

Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger argued in an X post on February 23 that Bitcoin’s early-2026 hashrate rebound is more than a mining-cycle recovery and may be a lagging signal of a broader price move ahead. His core thesis is that sovereign-linked mining activity is starting to play for Bitcoin the same structural role central bank gold buying played for gold before its breakout. Weisberger frames the comparison through the recent gold cycle, where he says sovereign accumulation preceded price discovery by years. In his telling, the key signal was not ETF demand or retail flows, but central banks steadily adding reserves as geopolitical fragmentation and fiat-risk concerns rose. “The result? A parabolic gold rally that few saw coming in real time,” he wrote. “Gold has surged to record highs well north of $5,000/oz in this cycle, leaving the ‘it’s just inflation’ crowd scrambling. The buying came first. The price discovery followed later.” Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back Why Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery Is Signalling The Next Rally Applying that framework to Bitcoin, Weisberger points to what he describes as a “textbook V-shaped recovery” in network hashrate in early 2026. After a sharp pullback of roughly 15% to 20% from prior peaks, he says computational power rebounded from below 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s, accompanied by one of the largest absolute difficulty increases on record, at nearly 15%. For Weisberger, that recovery is not just a post-stress normalization after winter curtailments, regional shutdowns, and post-halving margin compression. He argues it reflects a different class of miner stepping in. “This isn’t random noise. It is the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in where private miners hesitated,” he wrote. A central part of the post is Weisberger’s claim that at least 13 nation-states are now mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked level (backed by VanEck research). He cites Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, and also names Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as countries deploying energy assets into mining. “These are not retail or even corporate miners chasing daily hashprice,” he wrote. “These are governments converting stranded or strategic energy into a portable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve asset. They mine for policy reasons: revenue without printing more local currency, network security in which they hold a direct stake, and positioning in a world where financial sovereignty matters.” Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ Weisberger argues sovereign miners operate with different constraints than private miners: longer time horizons, different cost of capital, and less need to sell output into market weakness. In that framework, sovereign mining becomes a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC directly into long-term holdings, reducing sell-side pressure while also strengthening network security. Weisberger explicitly describes hashrate recovery as a lagged, not coincident, indicator, because sovereign mining expansion requires hardware procurement, energy contracts, infrastructure buildout, and policy approvals. Those processes move slowly, often during periods when price action appears flat or corrective. He argues that this sequence can change market structure before price reflects it: stronger security, tighter issuance flow, and broader validation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than a purely speculative vehicle. His conclusion is blunt: “The hashrate recovery isn’t just technical resilience. It is a sovereign signal flashing bright. Governments are voting with energy infrastructure and balance sheets.” At press time, BTC traded at $63,209. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price performance may appear subdued, with the leading crypto currently trading below the $65,000 level and sitting around 50% under all-time highs, but a new report from River suggests that adoption trends in 2025 tell a very different story.  According to the firm, the network’s growth across institutions, businesses, financial advisors, and even nation-states accelerated sharply over the past year, despite market weakness. Institutional Bitcoin Demand One of the most notable developments has been the scale of institutional accumulation. River reports that institutions acquired approximately 829,000 Bitcoin in 2025 alone. These buyers included corporations, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investment funds, and government-related entities.  Related Reading: History Repeating? XRP Flashes Signal Last Seen Before Explosive 60,000% Rally Investment advisors have also emerged as steady buyers. Registered investment advisors (RIAs), which collectively oversee around $146 trillion in client assets, have been net purchasers of Bitcoin exposure for eight consecutive quarters.  Their participation largely began after the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024. Over the past two years, RIAs have invested approximately $1.5 billion per quarter into Bitcoin ETFs, without a single quarter of net selling.  Adoption within this group is already widespread: 29 of the top 30 US RIAs hold Bitcoin exposure. However, allocations remain minimal, averaging just 0.008% of assets, leaving considerable room for expansion. Surge In Bank, Corporate And Retail Adoption Traditional banks are also moving closer to the asset. Around 60% of the largest US banks are reportedly developing Bitcoin-related products.  Corporate adoption accelerated as well. Public company ownership of Bitcoin increased by 2.5 times in 2025, with businesses collectively ranking as the largest net buyers during the year.  Much of this demand came from Bitcoin treasury companies, but River notes that many established corporations have been quietly adding BTC in smaller amounts. The firm expects this type of balance sheet adoption to expand across the S&P 500 in the years ahead. Merchant usage has grown at a rapid pace. In the United States, the number of businesses accepting BTC payments tripled in 2025, while global merchant adoption rose by 74%.  River, which serves more than 3,000 businesses across multiple industries, reports that the strongest growth is occurring among small, privately held companies, many of which do not publicly disclose their Bitcoin strategies. Nation-States Expand BTC Holdings  Nation-state involvement also increased. Five additional countries became Bitcoin holders in 2025. Among them were Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, whose sovereign wealth funds acquired exposure, and the Czech Republic. Governments have accumulated Bitcoin through a variety of channels, including state-backed mining operations, direct purchases, ETF exposure, asset seizures, donations, and even hacking-related recoveries.  Related Reading: World Liberty Financial Cites ‘Coordinated Attack’ — But Are There Deeper Issues? Looking ahead, River argues that the divergence between price performance and adoption is striking. While the current phase of growth may not immediately translate into dramatic price multiples, it reflects a deeper form of progress:  We expect that in the coming years, Bitcoin adoption will not only continue its current trend but meaningfully accelerate.  As of this writing, BTC is trading at $64,459, marking losses of 26% and 31% over the past thirty days and year-to-date, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A potential final sell-off in Bitcoin is back in focus after market analyst Aaron Dishner warned that the asset appears structurally close to capitulation. Based on cycle timing, historical drawdowns, and converging technical signals, he argues the market may be nearing its last downside move before a longer-term bottom forms. He urges investors to brace for volatility as this “bottom year” unfolds. Bitcoin’s Past Fractal Points To One More Flush Dishner’s framework centers on a structural comparison to May 2022. On the weekly BTC/USDT chart, he outlines a sequence mirroring prior bear market endings: a major high, a liquidation-driven drop, a failed relief rally forming a bear flag, and a breakdown into new lows. After that breakdown, the price typically moves sideways before a final aggressive sell-off. Related Reading: AI Explains What’s Driving The Ethereum Price Volatility, Can It Rise Above $3,000 Again? He projects a downside target around $35,000–$40,000, aligning with historical drawdowns of 70% to 75% from all-time highs. Previous cycles support this range: the 2013–2015 decline lasted about 59 weeks with an 87% drawdown; the 2017–2018 cycle spanned roughly a year with an 84% decline; and the 2021–2022 bear phase retraced around 77% over 54 weeks. Based on this pattern, he expects the current cycle to extend at least 52 weeks from its peak, placing a potential bottom near October 2026. Moreover, weekly RSI has reached deeply oversold territory, levels historically associated with capitulation events such as late 2018 and the COVID crash. While not at the most extreme historical lows, RSI is within the zone that previously preceded large downside wicks and sharp sell-offs. Volume metrics also show deterioration. On-balance volume across major exchanges reflects persistent distribution, resembling conditions seen before prior cycle lows. The broader takeaway is that price structure, momentum, and volume are converging toward what Dishner describes as a final flush. Stablecoin Dominance And S&P Risk Add Pressure Dishner also highlights combined stablecoin dominance, specifically USDT and USDC. Historically, sharp increases in stablecoin dominance have coincided with heavy Bitcoin sell-offs. He notes dominance is approaching resistance near 13%, and previous breakout clusters preceded steep downside moves in BTC. RSI behavior on the dominance chart mirrors pre-capitulation setups from 2022. In that cycle, a spike in dominance aligned with Bitcoin’s June decline, followed by weeks of choppy consolidation before recovery attempts. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Third Time Breakout Could Send Price On 2,000% Rally To $2 Macro risk compounds the outlook. Dishner points to bearish divergence signals on the S&P 500, referencing clusters of downside momentum warnings seen near prior equity tops. An 8% pullback is viewed as plausible, with a deeper 20%–25% correction representing a high-impact scenario. In his assessment, a significant equity drawdown would transmit stress into digital assets, intensifying margin pressure and accelerating Bitcoin’s decline. Even after capitulation, history suggests the market may not immediately reverse. Prior cycles required 19 to 40 weeks of sideways or unstable price action before sustained recovery began. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin may be entering its final sell-off phase, potentially bottoming around October. Until then, Dishner maintains conditions remain structurally bearish, with elevated risk across crypto and traditional markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

In six months, the Bitcoin price has crashed by around 50%, dropping below $64,000 at the start of this month. Naturally, this has triggered a cascading event, with devastating effects on the rest of the market, and questions about what could be driving the decline. With no notable event driving the crash, as was seen in 2022 with the crash of the FTX crypto exchange, the simple answer has pointed to one thing: large investors are selling. Corporate Holders Are Getting Out Of Bitcoin In an X post, Coin Bureau highlighted an interesting trend among corporate Bitcoin holders that could explain the sustained decline the digital asset has suffered in recent times. According to the chart shared on the post, these large corporate holders have been dumping their holdings. Related Reading: Ready For A 443% Dogecoin Move? The Meme Coin Just Touched A Historically Explosive Level For the better part of 2025, there had been a clear trend of accumulation among corporate buyers. Sometimes, the buying trend would be sustained for weeks before a sell-off trend would be recorded. However, this is quickly changing as the last few weeks have been dominated by dumping. The post showed that in the last three weeks, there has been no buying done. Rather, corporate investors have been dumping BTC on the market. For context, the longest selling streak among these large investors recorded in history was two weeks before buying began again. However, at the time of writing, only outflows have dominated the treasuries of these companies, marking a new record since companies began buying Bitcoin in 2020. Given this, it is possible that the accumulation trend that drove Bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2025 may have ended. Data from CoinShares also corroborates this sell-off trend. In its Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, it shows that in just the last week alone, Bitcoin lost $215.3 million to outflows from digital asset funds, thereby leading the sell-offs. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 In the same vein, Ethereum suffered outflows of 36.5 million, and multi-asset funds saw $32.5 million in outflows. Interestingly, though, the likes of XRP and Solana continue to see inflows, despite their poor performance in the market. Given this trend, it shows that corporate investors are looking to altcoins for likely higher profit margins compared to Bitcoin. As supply continues to pile up in the market, it is likely that the Bitcoin price will continue to fall until buying picks up once again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $66,000 and dipped further. BTC is now consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $66,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,000 support. The price is trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $63,500 and $63,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Support Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,000 support zone. There was a push below $65,000. The price even spiked below $64,000. A low was formed at $63,351, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $64,000, but the price is still well below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,652 swing high to the $63,351 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $64,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $64,600 level. The first key resistance is near the $65,250 level. A close above the $65,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $66,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,652 swing high to the $63,351 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $66,800 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next barrier for the bulls could be $67,500 and $67,700. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $65,250 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $64,000 level. The first major support is near the $63,500 level. The next support is now near the $63,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,650 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,000, followed by $63,500. Major Resistance Levels – $65,000 and $66,000.

Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook is a major talking point, with veteran trader Peter Brandt recently floating a bold timeline for when the leading cryptocurrency could hit $250,000. The comment came in response to a chart shared on X by NBA legend Scottie Pippen, who showed how Bitcoin’s current structure looks familiar. Brandt not only agreed with Pippen, he also attached a projection that points to a specific year for a when the Bitcoin price will eventually trade above $250,000. Power Law Projection Points To 2029 Breakout According to veteran financial analyst Peter Brandt, Bitcoin is on track to setting off to $250,000-plus by late 2029. He only noted this with a simple sentence, but the projection to $250,000 is visible in the weekly candlestick price chart he shared alongside his prediction. Related Reading: Don’t Fall For The Bitcoin Trap: Analyst Explains Why Recovery To $76,000 Is Not A Good Thing The chart shared by Brandt shows Bitcoin trading within a broad upward-sloping channel that has defined its macrostructure for over a decade. The lower boundary, highlighted in green, appears to act as a recurring support zone during major consolidations. The upper red band connects the different peaks over the years. The current structure is playing out in a way where Bitcoin has been trending downwards after a strong multi-year advance that peaked in late 2025. Brandt’s projection extends the channel forward into 2029, where the middle band of the channel intersects near the $250,000 price level.  $250,000 is a recurring Bitcoin price target among crypto participants, although the predictions have different timelines as to when Bitcoin will reach this price level. For instance, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is also of the notion that Bitcoin will trade at $250,000 soon, although this came with a warning. Analysts at Galaxy Digital have also floated the same target, although on a faster timeline around 2027. That projection, however, came with expectations of an unstable 2026 before any strong rally. Scottie Pippen’s 2020 Comparison Brandt’s forecast was triggered by Scottie Pippen’s post comparing Bitcoin’s current setup to its 2020 structure. In Pippen’s side-by-side chart comparison, the left panel shows Bitcoin’s CME Futures in mid-2020 forming a base before launching into the rally that culminated in the 2021 highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Ready To Bounce Again? The Major Accumulation Trend You Should Be Aware Of The right panel, which shows current price action in 2026, depicts a similar consolidation pattern above a green support zone. The visual comparison suggests that Bitcoin is now in a comparable pre-breakout phase like it was in 2020. In 2020, Bitcoin consolidated for months before breaking into a parabolic move. As such, although the long-term view is bullish, there’s a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate around its current price level before going on an aggressive 2021-style rally. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating below $70,000. The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading at $66,150, having lost 1.8% of its value in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has increasingly moved in sync with the software and technology sector, and is reshaping its role in global finance. Rather than behaving like a traditional store of value or independent asset class, BTC has shown price patterns closely tied to technology-driven markets, particularly growth-oriented software companies and digital innovation stocks. This growing connection reflects BTC’s deep roots in technology and its dependence on market conditions that typically influence high-growth sectors and innovation cycles. How Market Liquidity Connects Bitcoin To Software Stocks According to crypto analyst Kevin, Bitcoin has been more tied to the software sector than any other market in recent years. The software underperformance has been caused by massive disruption from Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, and BTC has also experienced similar underperformance due to AI technology disruption throughout 2025 and the broader market cycle. Related Reading: Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says However, as BTC is no longer the hottest new tech in the block and a tighter for longer monetary policy is in place, it’s the perfect combo to explain crypto underperformance overall. The key question now is whether BTC can overcome this hurdle in the future. Kevin believes that BTC can overcome this hurdle, but it has to overcome real fundamental narrative challenges for the first time. The current daily chart structure for Bitcoin has been interpreted as a strong bullish setup. Market commentator known as Super฿ro on X has highlighted that it is always better for BTC to flush out the lower liquidity levels first, leaving the overhead liquidity intact, which will later serve as fuel for a potential short squeeze. Thus, BTC had the opportunity to move higher and take out the short positions, but instead left them untouched. Currently, BTC has flushed out almost all the leveraged longs below, which is a setup but not a guarantee. Technically, this pattern could also be viewed as a bear pennant breakdown, with a potential downside target below $50,000.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Drops To Deepest Level Since FTX Bottom Super฿ro is convinced that this move will prove too ambitious for the bears, as it would push the price into a major multi-year support zone. However, if BTC successfully holds its recent lows on a closing basis, the outlook could shift decisively bullish and open the door to a sharp recovery into the $70,000 range and potentially higher. BTC Flow From Spot To Futures Markets Explained The Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is approaching a golden cross with the 90-day moving average (90MA) line. A crypto investor and data analyst known as CW pointed out that the IFP indicator is based on BTC flowing from the spot market into the futures market. However, if this trend accelerates further, it could form a golden cross above the 90MA, then signal a bullish rally. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin futures positioning among non-commercial traders is swinging sharply toward net long exposure, a move technical analyst Tom McClellan (editor of The McClellan Market Report) says has arrived “with some urgency” in the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report and one that has coincided with notable market outcomes in prior, similarly extreme episodes. Sharing a chart of Bitcoin futures (price on a log scale) alongside non-commercial net positioning, McClellan argued that in Bitcoin’s case, large speculators effectively function as the “smart money” cohort, because the market lacks the typical commercial hedger presence seen in traditional commodity futures. “The non-commercial traders of Bitcoin futures are usually the smart money,” McClellan wrote. “This week’s COT Report shows that they are moving net long with some urgency. Look back at what the last two similar excursions led to. But remember, this is ‘a condition, not a signal’.” Why Non-Commercials Matter In Bitcoin Futures McClellan later expanded on how he frames the CFTC’s weekly report, which breaks futures positioning into commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables. In corn, for example, commercials might be producers or end users; in Bitcoin, he says that category is thin. “In Bitcoin, there are hardly any traders who qualify as Commercial traders,” McClellan wrote. “So in an unusual circumstance, the Non-commercial traders fill the role of being the smart money.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles That distinction matters because COT is not about absolute long or short interest, every futures contract has a long and a short by definition, but about who is on each side. “Every futures contract is simultaneously one long and one short position, held by different parties. So the number of longs will always equal the number of shorts,” he wrote. “What matters is who holds the positions.” McClellan also cautioned against importing equity-market intuition about short interest into futures positioning. “So a large short position in a stock represents potential energy which could get converted into price movements via short covering,” he wrote. “COT data don’t do that. They just represent expert opinion.” The core dispute in the X thread wasn’t whether COT can be useful, but how to interpret timing. Trader toni (@tonitrades_) agreed the dataset has value but questioned whether futures positioning simply follows spot momentum. “COT data has historically been a solid indicator, no argument there,” toni wrote. “But non-commercial positioning often lags spot market moves by weeks. By the time futures traders pile in, the initial momentum is usually priced in already.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Call On Ice: Fear Is Extreme, Whales Aren’t Buying McClellan pushed back on that sequencing. “I think you meant that their positioning PRECEDES price moves sometimes by weeks,” he replied, underscoring his view that positioning extremes can show up ahead of meaningful market moves, though not on a predictable schedule. That’s where the thread landed: with an emphasis on uncertainty. Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) summed it up succinctly: “Timing still uncertain.” McClellan agreed. “Exactly, hence my admonition.” In his longer explanation, McClellan reiterated that most weeks the COT report has no actionable message, but that extremes can be informative with a crucial caveat. “A lot of the time there is no useful message in the COT data for each futures contract,” he wrote. “But when an extreme develops like now in Bitcoin, then we can get useful information. But as with any overbought or oversold reading on any indicator, COT data only reflect a ‘condition’ not a signal. The data will not tell you when that condition is going to matter, only that it should matter, sometime.” At press time, BTC traded at $65,663. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,000 and dipped sharply. BTC is now consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $66,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,500 support. The price is trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $64,500 and $64,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dives Over 5% Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $67,200 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,500 support zone. There was a push below $66,000. The price even spiked below $65,000. There was also a break below a bullish trend line with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A low was formed at $64,203, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $64,500, but the price is still well below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,653 swing high to the $64,203 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $64,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $65,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $66,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,653 swing high to the $64,203 low. A close above the $66,400 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $67,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $67,600 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $68,000 and $68,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $66,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $64,400 level. The first major support is near the $64,200 level. The next support is now near the $63,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,850 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,500, followed by $64,200. Major Resistance Levels – $66,000 and $66,500.

On-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant shows large holders dominating exchange inflows while short-term investors continue to sell at a loss, pointing to a fragile base-building phase.

The crypto market has been showing signs of recovery, with the Bitcoin price trying to reclaim the psychological $70,000 over the past few days. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the crypto market might just have the required liquidity to kickstart a resurgence. Stablecoin Inflows Surge During Key Support Retest In a recent QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed a dramatic increase in TRC-20 USDT balances on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Quoting data from CryptoQuant’s data, the on-chain analyst revealed that USDT reserves climbed from approximately $385 million on December 24 to about $5.2 billion as of February 21. What’s more interesting is, this roughly $4.8 billion spike in the stablecoin reserve on Binance occurred all under a month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Update: Market Panic Fades But Traders Remain Defensive – Details The crypto pundit highlighted that this significant rise in the TRC-20 UDST reserves on Binance actually coincides with the Bitcoin and Ethereum price approaching key support levels. This is typically a sign that demand is rising and positioning activity is ongoing, both of which often lead to the absorption of selling pressure.  Typically, a significant increase in stablecoin accumulation on exchanges — especially during periods of price weakness — signals that liquidity is being rotated, and not completely exiting the market. According to CryptoOnchain, this means that more capital is being positioned for potential reentry into the Bitcoin or Ethereum market (among other assets).  TRC-20 Usage Points To Increasing Retail Participation  The on-chain analyst further highlighted that the adoption of TRC-20 USDT is often characteristic of a certain investor class, known as the retail participants. It is also widely known that large institutions — which do not typically chase cost-efficient transactions — often use the ERC20 network. Hence, CryptoOnchain concluded that “the increase in TRC-20 reserves may indicate stronger retail engagement during the correction.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Mounting Pressure While stablecoin reserves indicate that market participants may be preparing for a bullish reversal of the Bitcoin price, it is worth noting that an immediate rebound is not guaranteed. This is because elevated reserves only reflect the presence of inert demand (known as dry powder), rather than real demand. Nonetheless, if the present market conditions should see stability in the near-term, this “dry powder” that waits on the sidelines could quickly become fuel to drive prices to the upside. Moreover, the Bitcoin apparent demand metric recently flipped positive, suggesting that a reversal might be imminent. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $67,971, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

At the beginning of February, the price of Bitcoin tumbled to a new low not seen since US President Donald Trump got elected in November 2024. This downside volatility is believed to have been precipitated by the overleveraging in the BTC market at the time. According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin derivatives market has witnessed a massive flush-out over the past week. BTC Market Now At Reduced Risk Of Liquidation Cascades  In a fresh Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, trader CryptoOnchain revealed a dramatic flush-out in the Bitcoin derivatives market on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume. The relevant indicator here is the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), which has seen a significant decline in recent weeks. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks The Estimated Leverage Ratio is an on-chain metric that measures the ratio of open interest and the reserve of an exchange (Binance, in this case). This indicator tracks the average amount of leverage used by traders in a particular market or exchange. A high ELR value typically implies elevated market risk, signaling that small price movements could potentially lead to significant liquidations and further price movements. As reported by NewsBTC in late January, the ELR was at an extremely high level of around 0.1980, indicating an overheated and highly speculative market. Following the crash of the Bitcoin price, the on-chain metric has also cooled off, falling to around 0.1414. According to CryptoOnchain, this 28% decline in the Estimated Leverage Ratio highlights a shiftbin market dynamics. The market quant said that the drop in ELR suggests that a severe deleveraging event has occurred, with the accompanying price decline causing the closure of several overleveraged long positions. CryptoOnchain added: While the immediate price action was painful, wiping out excess leverage is fundamentally healthy. It removes the “derivatives bubble” and leaves the market structure much lighter and less susceptible to extreme, sudden volatility. The crypto analyst concluded that the risk of further liquidation cascades is reduced, now that the Estimated Leverage Ratio has fallen to normal levels. However, the Bitcoin market needs organic buying pressure and genuine demand from the spot market to rebuild a bullish structure and resume a sustainable upward trend. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC sits around $67,950, reflecting an almost 2% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is still down by more than 1% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money Exits: Large-Holder Supply Hits Lowest Since May 2025 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView