According to the latest on-chain data, investors have been excessively betting on the Bitcoin price in recent weeks, leading to its overall struggles. Longs Vs Shorts Imbalance — How This Induced Price Crash In a November 22 post on social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson revealed the underlying dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent unchecked fall. In deciphering this downward trend, the crypto pundit evaluated the Estimated Long/Short Positions metric, which estimates how much of the Open Interest across exchanges is dedicated to long positions relative to short positions. Wedson reported that, across 19 exchanges, there are about 71,000 BTC positioned in longs, while a relatively smaller amount of BTC (27,900) is dedicated to shorts. While this observation does not include data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the discrepancy between longs and shorts remains unusually large. Related Reading: Kiyosaki Dumps Bitcoin At $90K After Predicting A $250K Moonshot – Here’s Why This imbalance is significant because when there are clusters of long positions at similar price levels, the market tends to lean into a more fragile state. Moderate pullbacks beneath these clusters often lead to a cascade of forced liquidations (known as a long squeeze) — an event which could in turn push prices further south. Notably, Wedson pointed out that traders must have been convinced that $100,000 was Bitcoin’s price bottom — a speculation that soon became null after its failure. Afterwards, $90,000 came into focus, with another series of liquidations following suit. At the moment, $84,000 seems to be the price majority of Bitcoin’s speculative traders target as the new price bottom. These liquidation events that took place after the $100,000 and $90,000 supports were breached provided more buy-side liquidity for the Bitcoin price to topple. At the same time, most significant short positions have been closed off, making it difficult for a more defined price recovery to take place, as there is barely any sell-side liquidity to send the Bitcoin price to the upside. For Bitcoin to recover, Wedson explained that there needs to be a significant decrease in long positioning, while short exposure goes on the rise. Watch Out For $81,250 — Analyst In another post on X, technical analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin’s 2-year moving average, which stands at approximately $81,250, is an important landmark for the future trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency. The analyst explained that historical failures of the 730-day SMA have often marked the beginnings of bear markets. Thus, in the scenario where the Bitcoin price slips past its current 2-year average price, we could be witnessing the start of a long bearish cycle As of press time, Bitcoin holds a valuation of $86,251, reflecting an over 3% price jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Only An Asteroid Can Sink MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet, CryptoQuant CEO Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin and major altcoins bounced Sunday after an oversold RSI reading and more than $200M in liquidations signaled seller exhaustion amid thin weekend liquidity.
Jan van Eck questioned whether Bitcoin offers enough encryption and privacy, saying some longtime holders are examining Zcash as the market reassesses long-term assumptions.
Bitcoin is now sitting at one of its most critical junctures of the entire cycle. A rising-wedge breakdown has driven price straight into a key support zone just as BTC prints its first major post-ATH drawdown of over 33%, a level that has historically signaled prolonged weakness and heightened volatility. With technical pressure colliding with a historically significant threshold, the market now faces a decisive moment. Rising Wedge Break Sends Bitcoin Lower Into Key Support Zone Crypto analyst The Boss, in a recent breakdown of Bitcoin’s daily chart, highlighted the formation of a rising wedge pattern. As expected, Bitcoin has broken down from this wedge, sending the price sliding into what is considered a strong support zone. This level has historically acted as a turning point, making its current test a crucial moment for the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows A Clear Momentum Reset — Is A Trend Reversal Coming? According to the analyst, this area could trigger a potential upward reaction, as buyers often step in when the price reaches such well-established support levels. However, the possibility of a rebound is not guaranteed. The structure must show early signs of strength before any meaningful recovery can be considered reliable. Momentum indicators paint a cautious picture as they remain notably weak, showing no clear signal of bullish pressure returning to the market. At the same time, trading volume remains lower than necessary for a confident reversal, suggesting that buyers have yet to step in. Without stronger participation, any bounce may be shallow or short-lived. Due to these factors, the analyst emphasized that Bitcoin’s current level must be closely monitored. While a short-term reaction from support is possible, a failure to hold this zone would open the door to further downside and potentially expose deeper support areas. BTC Hits 33% Drawdown Threshold: A Historically Significant Signal According to a recent update shared by Crypto Patel, Bitcoin has now recorded a 33% drawdown from its all-time high, marking a correction significant enough to grab the market’s full attention. This is more than a routine pullback; it represents a level of decline that has historically signaled deeper shifts in market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces A Negative Correlation Trend And Still Holds Strong — Here’s Why Looking back through previous cycles, every instance where BTC retraced beyond 33% after a peak has been followed by prolonged periods of weakness, increased volatility, and continued downside pressure. These drawdowns often served as transitional phases, where momentum reset before the next major trend could establish itself. The market now sits in a critical phase, with traders and analysts watching closely to see whether Bitcoin repeats its well-known historical behavior or breaks the cycle with a stronger-than-expected recovery. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is on track for its worst weekly performance since March, while U.S. demand indicators weaken as the Coinbase premium declines and spot ETFs reach a record volume.
The cryptocurrency market has been under severe bearish pressure in the past week, with the price of Bitcoin falling below this year’s opening price. At the same time, other large-cap assets have struggled, registering double-digit losses over the past few days. In recent months, conversations have swirled around the death of the typical four-year cycle and a shift in the Bitcoin market structure, with the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) providing fresh, consistent liquidity. However, the latest on-chain data shows that BTC ETF investors could be under pressure in the coming days. $79,300: The Pain Threshold For BTC ETF Buyers In a recent post on the CryptoQuant platform, IT Tech shared an insight into the current Bitcoin market dynamics and how it could affect the relatively new set of investors known as BTC ETF buyers. According to the on-chain analyst, these exchange-traded fund holders are “about to face their first real test.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows A Clear Momentum Reset — Is A Trend Reversal Coming? The relevant metric here is the Bitcoin US ETF Realized Price, which tracks the average purchase price of BTC held by United States-based exchange-traded funds. This indicator offers insights into the profitability of institutional investors and holders. IT Tech, however, made an interesting assertion, calling out the idea that ETF capital inflows are “Institutional Money.” The crypto analyst noted that most value added through US-based exchange-traded funds is mostly from retail investors buying through their brokerage accounts. As observed in the chart above, the Bitcoin US Exchange-Traded Funds Realized Price currently stands around $79,300. IT Tech said that the ETF buyers often feel “smart” when above the realized price, while they feel panic (as seen with most retail investors) when below their cost basis. According to the on-chain analyst, these ETF investors are not accustomed to Bitcoin price declines. Hence, this group of exchange-traded fund holders or “new retail,” who have not been tested before, could enter a phase of panic selling should they go underwater. Currently, the next significant support for the market leader is marked at around $82,000, where several spot investors have their cost basis. Ultimately, this evaluation makes $79,300 another crucial level to watch should the price of Bitcoin suffer further downturn. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $84,500, reflecting an over 2% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by more than 11% in the past week. Related Reading: Who’s Selling? Here’s The Demographic Driving The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Price Crash Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows a large amount of USDC inflows have just hit exchanges, a potential sign that investors are looking to buy the Bitcoin dip. USDC Exchange Inflow Has Registered Multiple Spikes Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the USDC Exchange Inflow has shot up recently. The “Exchange Inflow” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of a given asset that’s being transferred to wallets connected with centralized exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Retraces To Lower Bound—What Comes Next? Generally, investors deposit their coins to these platforms when they want to trade them away. As such, whenever the Exchange Inflow spikes, it can be a sign that there is demand for selling the asset. Such a trend can naturally be bearish for Bitcoin and other volatile cryptocurrencies. When it comes to stablecoins, however, trading has no effect on their price, as they are, by definition, stable around the fiat currency that they are pegged to. This doesn’t mean that stablecoin exchange deposits are without consequences, though. Investors usually store their capital in the form of USDC or another stablecoin when they want to avoid the volatility associated with Bitcoin and company. Once these traders feel the time is right to buy back in, they send their stables to exchanges and swap to the asset of their choice. As such, stablecoin inflows can actually be a bullish sign for the market. From the chart shared by Maartunn, it’s visible that the USDC Exchange Inflow has surged recently, a potential sign that fresh capital is looking to accumulate the volatile coins. The latest wave of USDC exchange deposits have arrived as Bitcoin and other digital assets have gone through a crash. Given this timing, it’s possible that traders are buying the dip. In some other news, the recent bearish price action has been especially hard on the short-term holders (STHs), as Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has pointed out in an X post. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STHs have witnessed a plunge in their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) alongside the market downturn. STHs are the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, and the asset is currently trading at levels notably below any seen during this window, so the entire cohort has dropped into a state of loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Dominated By US Selling, CryptoQuant Data Shows Since the recent downtrend has been quite steep, the degree of unrealized loss faced by the cohort has also been unlike anything witnessed since November 2022, when the last bear market reached its bottom. “STH are seriously feeling the pain,” noted Beamish. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly slipped below $81,000 earlier in the day, but it has since seen a small jump back to $83,900. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView
Peak fear suggests a tactical low may be near.
Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who publish under the @Negentropic handle on X, argue that the current crypto crash is being driven not by a broad narrative turn, but by a single, systematic source of sell pressure whose footprint is most visible in Bitcoin and is spilling into the wider complex. Their core assertion is categorical: “What’s happening in Bitcoin right now isn’t a narrative shift: it’s a mechanical unwind.” In that framing, the tape is reflecting the forced exit of one participant rather than an organic repricing of crypto risk. Why Is The Crypto Market Crashing? Negentropic’s thesis starts with momentum indicators behaving in ways they say are inconsistent with “natural markets.” They note that “the 1D MACD just printed a new all-time low… yet price is only down ~33% from the highs,” and add, “This doesn’t happen in natural markets. You only get this when someone is dumping in a straight line.” They pair that observation with capitulation-like oscillators that are not accompanied by the usual macro or leverage shock. As they put it, RSI is near capitulation, “but there’s no macro stress, no credit shock, no leverage detonation, no ETF outflows.” The mismatch matters to their conclusion: “It’s extreme momentum without a catalyst: classic signature of mechanical selling.” Related Reading: Crypto Traders See Bullish Tailwind: Hassett Jumps In Fed Chair Odds They then contrast today’s setup with prior episodes where MACD and RSI reached similar extremes. In those historical cases, Negentropic says, “Price was down 60%, derivatives were blowing out, funding was deeply negative.” By contrast, their read of the present is that confirming stress isn’t there. “ETFs remain net positive, their cost basis is still intact,” they write, and they emphasize that “long-term holders are removing supply aggressively.” They also point to cross-crypto resilience: “Solana ETF inflows are steady, altcoins are holding up relatively well vs btc & eth,” and “eth is holding stronger than btc.” For Negentropic, those relative-strength signals are the tell that this is not a systemwide risk-off event. “If this were real sentiment, all of that would be breaking. It isn’t,” they conclude. Flow regularity is the other pillar of the Glassnode co-founders’ case. They describe a pattern that they say has repeated since October 10: “Same timestamps, same venue-specific thinness, same lack of reflexive bids.” The implication is mechanical intent rather than discretionary trading. “It’s a schedule, not a market,” they write, claiming “21 days of consistent toxic flow.” That sequence, in their view, aligns with “one explanation”: “a liquidity provider or fund was structurally damaged on October 10th,” and “the entity tied to that failure has been reducing risk in a forced, rules-based manner.” Independent tape watchers are describing a remarkably similar cadence. Front Runners (@frontrunnersx) reports that a large seller on Binance has been hitting the market with clock-like consistency. Over “two weeks straight,” they say, the entity “hit the sell button exactly at 9:30 EST, every US market open, without fail.” They add that “kind of consistency usually points to a sophisticated actor operating under specific mandates or time windows,” and that it looks “less like random flow and more like a single entity (or a tightly-coordinated group).” Macro analyst Alex Krüger expands on how that could manifest across venues. He suggests the seller could be “dumping during US hours via a broker or OTC desk that employs smart order routing or hedging strategies across multiple venues.” In his view, the dominance of Binance prints doesn’t require Binance to be the origin. “Most volume naturally” would flow there, he argues, “since it’s where the bulk of the liquidity resides.” Related Reading: Crypto Market Wipes Out $1 Trillion Since October: Analyzing The Forces Behind The Crash Krüger also highlights venue asymmetries that fit a routed-flow story: he has seen “relatively little spot selling routed via Coinbase this week,” while noting “extraordinary levels of spot selling via Bitfinex.” Will The Crypto Crash Be Short-Lived? Delphi Ventures founding partner Tommy Shaughnessy focuses on the urgency implied by the pace. If the flow has been present since 10/10, he writes, “the speed at which they’re selling BTC is pretty crazy.” He interprets that as compulsion rather than strategy: “Means they are price insensitive and need to exit, fast.” Shaughnessy characterizes the move as “violent,” but adds a key qualifier consistent with Negentropic’s finite-seller framing: it’s likely “short lived because it’s not orderly.” If there is a body from 10/10 the speed at which they’re selling $BTC is pretty crazy Means they are price insensitive and need to exit, fast. (Someone had that chart of all red candles for days) Violent but means it’s hopefully short lived because it’s not orderly https://t.co/kaJAKh5Z4M — Tommy (@Shaughnessy119) November 21, 2025 Multicoin Capital founder Tushar Jain likewise describes what he sees as forced liquidation behavior. “It feels like a big forced seller is in the market,” he writes, adding, “We are seeing systematic selling during specific hours.” Jain explicitly ties this to the same October window Negentropic flags, calling it “probably a consequence of 10/10 liquidations,” and says it’s “hard to imagine this scale of forced selling continues for much longer.” He also situates the moment within a longer unwind process, recalling a lesson from prior cycles: “it takes some time for all the bankruptcies to reveal themselves after a big liquidation flush like this,” because “shops are running around trying to figure out what their exposure to insolvent counterparties is.” It feels like a big forced seller is in the market. We are seeing systematic selling during specific hours. Probably a consequence of 10/10 liquidations. Hard to imagine this scale of forced selling continues for much longer. https://t.co/JO6kRmJUUb — Tushar Jain (@tushar_jain) November 19, 2025 Taken together, the sources are presenting a coherent, internally consistent read: crypto’s downside is being dominated by a single, time-boxed, price-insensitive seller whose execution pattern is systematic enough to warp momentum indicators and intraday structure. Negentropic’s bottom line is not merely descriptive but interpretive: “This is not capitulation. This is not a trend break.” It is, instead, “a constrained unwinding through a fractured market.” And because mechanical sellers end when inventory or mandate ends, the Glassnode co-founders argue that when it does, “the rebound will likely be far sharper than the decline that preceded it.” At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.83 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The dynamic landscape of the Bitcoin market is entering a full momentum reset, the kind that typically appears in the cooling phase between major trend cycles. After a period of decisive movements, the market now finds itself in a state where previous directional force has largely dissipated, allowing for a re-evaluation of its path. A Necessary Reset Before Bitcoin’s Next Big Push In an X post, Swissblock has mentioned that Bitcoin momentum is clearly in a reset phase, and the question now is how long until it flips. Historically, in late February to early April 2025, the bottom required roughly 7 weeks for a full momentum to reset. Moving further back to late June to late September 2024, the correction took close to 14 weeks for a full reset and consolidation before a clear trend emerged. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Expert Predicts Price Target Of $40,000 By Late 2026 Data shows that the current momentum reset has been underway for weeks, placing BTC right inside the window where past cycles have typically reached exhaustion. This zone historically marks the point where downside pressure weakens and the higher probability of a counter-trend move increases sharply. The crypto market is collapsing. An industry-leading commentary on the global capital markets, The Kobeissi Letter, revealed that on October 6th, just 45 days ago, Bitcoin touched an all-time high of $126,272, with the total crypto market capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion. However, everything changed on October 10th, when President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China, shifting the surface of the crypto market. This announcement triggered a chain reaction record of $19.2 billion in liquidations, the highest ever recorded in a single event, and BTC never truly recovered from the shock. Even when a trade deal between the US and China was reached on October 30th, the liquidation pressures only worsened. Since November 10th, BTC price action has moved into a literal straight line lower, with average daily liquidations approaching $1 billion. Throughout this entire 45-day bear market, there has been an absence of bearish fundamental developments within the crypto space. Kobeissi concluded that this is a mechanical bear market driven by an excessive level of leverage and sporadic liquidations, claiming the market is efficient, and it will iron itself out. Will BTC Emerge Stronger From This Test? This current Bitcoin correction has now fallen perfectly in line with the previous major drawdowns of this cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, highlighted that each of these corrections in the ongoing cycle has their own story, but this one is hitting the market the hardest. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is 80% Into The Bear Market, Analyst Reveals What Will Confirm It 100% Though the 10/10 liquidation event didn’t just hit BTC, it obliterated altcoins. For most of this brutal BTC correction, equities and metals were making fresh all-time highs, further triggering the bearish condition of the crypto landscape. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is struggling to find support after losing the $85,000 level and plunging to $81,000, marking its weakest point since early spring. Bulls have clearly lost control of the trend, and fear now dominates the market, with sentiment rapidly shifting from caution to outright panic. Many traders are calling for a confirmed bear market, while others argue the move is an orchestrated shakeout designed to flush out weak hands before the next macro leg. Related Reading: Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden Deposits Final 2,499 BTC ($228M) to Kraken – Details Amid the chaos, top analyst Axel Adler shared new insights that highlight a structural shift beneath the surface. Until just yesterday, short-term holders (STHs) appeared relatively stable despite the correction. However, the situation has now changed dramatically. The Realized P/L component — which measures whether investors are selling at a profit or loss — has fallen to –1, signaling broad loss realization across the STH cohort. This metric turning negative for the first time in weeks confirms that capitulation among recent buyers is accelerating, a dynamic that historically increases pressure on the spot market. Although the sell-off is severe, some analysts argue that these conditions resemble previous manipulation-driven liquidity grabs, where deep corrections eventually set the foundation for sharp rebounds. STH Panic Mirrors Past Cyclical Bottom Signals Adler explains that the latest spike in short-term holder (STH) panic is not an isolated event — it closely resembles patterns seen during previous market bottoms. The chart clearly shows that similar surges in STH loss realization occurred in July 2021 and again throughout the 2022–2023 bear market, each time leading to accelerated selling, liquidity stress, and deeper short-term corrections. These phases were marked by fear-driven capitulation, where recent buyers dumped coins rapidly, often exaggerating the downside but ultimately exhausting available sell pressure. Today, that same structure is reappearing. With STH Realized P/L dropping sharply and the STH-MVRV ratio sitting below 1, fear has pushed many recent entrants into loss, triggering panic moves. Adler notes that this kind of forced selling tends to cluster near the end of corrections, not the beginning. Once STHs capitulate, the market often shifts into a period of stabilization as long-term holders absorb supply. Despite extreme sentiment across social and derivative markets, several analysts argue that this setup could create the conditions for a recovery. Historically, when STH panic peaks and long-term holders remain steady, Bitcoin has often staged strong rebounds in the weeks that follow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mean Reversion Oscillator Prints First Green Oversold Bar in Months – A Classic Bull-Market Bottom Signal BTC Testing Key Demand Levels Bitcoin has entered a steep downtrend, and the chart clearly reflects the intensity of the current sell-off. BTC has dropped to the $83K–$84K range, marking one of the sharpest declines of this cycle. The breakdown accelerated once price lost the $92K and $90K supports, and the chart now shows a near-vertical move to the downside — a classic sign of capitulation-driven selling. On the daily timeframe, BTC is trading well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. All three have begun sloping downward, forming a full bearish alignment that signals weakening momentum across multiple time horizons. Price is currently attempting to stabilize around the 200-day moving average (red line), one of the last major trend supports in a macro bull structure. A clean close below this level could open the door to deeper downside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Deepens Around $90K Level: Classic Late-Stage Fear Structure Emerging Volume has spiked aggressively over the past sessions, confirming panic participation. Unlike earlier corrections, this one shows sustained distribution without meaningful bounces, suggesting forced selling from short-term holders and large entities. However, the chart also shows early signs of selling exhaustion. Candles are printing long lower wicks, and intraday volatility has increased — conditions that often precede a temporary bottom. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
JPMorgan warning on potential MSCI exclusion sparks fresh pressure, prompting another public response from the executive chairman.
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju pushed back on a renewed wave of forced Bitcoin liquidation and bankruptcy chatter around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR), arguing that the bearish thesis misreads the company’s capital structure and shareholder incentives. In a Nov. 20, 2025 post on X, Ju wrote, “MSTR only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth,” adding that critics should “bring a single piece of evidence” before claiming Michael Saylor would be liquidated. The comments came as Bitcoin and high-beta crypto proxies retraced into late November, reviving legacy narratives that Strategy’s debt stack could compel BTC sales. Why Strategy Will Never Sell Bitcoin Ju’s central claim is that Strategy is not structurally set up like a margin trader. Addressing the most common fear—that convertible notes “missing” their conversion price forces liquidation—he stated: “Convertible debt not reaching the conversion price is not liquidation. It simply means the notes get repaid in cash […] Failing to convert is not a bankruptcy trigger. It is just normal debt maturity.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Fidelity Research Lead Weighs The Odds In his view, the repayment pathways are conventional corporate finance tools: refinancing, rolling into new notes, secured borrowing, or operating cash flow. That framing aligns with how convertibles function in practice; if equity is below strike at maturity, the embedded option expires and the instrument reverts to straight debt rather than a forced-sale event. He also grounded his argument in governance and identity. “Saylor would never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders want it,” Ju wrote, warning that “selling even a single BTC would destroy MSTR’s identity as a Bitcoin treasury company and trigger a death spiral for both Bitcoin and MSTR.” Strategy has repeatedly defined itself as a BTC-treasury vehicle, and its shareholder base largely bought into that mandate, making voluntary divestment politically and strategically improbable absent a radical shift in investor preference. Balance-sheet data underpins Ju’s confidence. Strategy reported 640,808 BTC as of Oct. 30, 2025, acquired for about $47.44 billion; subsequent filings cited major November additions taking holdings to roughly 649,870 BTC. Even after accounting for the growing convertible and preferred layers, the BTC treasury remains the dominant asset, meaning solvency stress would require an extreme, prolonged Bitcoin collapse rather than a cyclical drawdown. Related Reading: Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026 Ju did not claim the equity is risk-free. “This does not mean MSTR’s stock price will always stay high,” he wrote, but called the idea that Strategy would sell BTC to support the stock or face imminent bankruptcy “completely absurd.” He added that even at a price of $10,000 per coin, Strategy would face “a debt restructuring, nothing more.” On preferred shares, he acknowledged dividend obligations, noting payments have not been missed and can be covered via new share issuance—dilutive, but not a liquidation vector. Posting BTC as collateral, he said, would be a last resort because that would introduce real margin risk. In short, Ju’s rebuttal draws a hard line between volatility and insolvency: Strategy may trade like leveraged Bitcoin, but its liabilities do not mechanically force BTC sales. The “Saylor liquidation” narrative, he argues, is a Twitter myth unless the world ends—by asteroid. At press time, BTC traded at $82,050. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Rep. Warren Davidson introduced legislation that allows bitcoin tax payments without incurring capital gains to beef up the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Recent data has revealed the demographics of sellers driving the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin crash. The Coinbase BTC premium index also continues to drop further in the red, which strengthens the case of where exactly the sell pressure is coming from. The Demographic Behind The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Price Crash In an X post, crypto pundit Crypto Rover noted that the U.S. session has been the weakest trading session so far this month. The pundit further shared an accompanying chart, which showed that BTC has suffered a loss of around 12% in the U.S. session since the start of November, also leading to the Ethereum and Dogecoin crash. Related Reading: Why Are The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Down Again? Meanwhile, the EU has had the second-weakest session after the U.S., with Bitcoin dropping around 12% in this session since the start of this month. The Asian session has been the least volatile, with BTC trading sideways, recording a drawdown of only about 2% since the start of November. Ethereum, Dogecoin, and altcoins have also been stable during the Asian trading session. Crypto pundit Bossman also indicated that the U.S. was responsible for most of the sell pressure that is driving the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin crash. In an X post, he noted that every single American session is marked by relentless selling for hours. Meanwhile, the Asians wake up, buy it all back, and then the Americans wake up, and the selling begins again. Notably, the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin prices record increased volatility whenever the U.S. stock market opens, with market commentator Zerohedge attributing it to the ‘10 am slam’ by market algos. This indicates that institutional investors are heavily contributing to the market crash. This is evident in the significant outflows recorded by Bitcoin ETFs in recent times. These funds have recorded five daily net outflows over the last seven days, according to SoSoValue data. Coinbase BTC Premium Index In The Red CoinGlass data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is in the red, further confirming that most of the sell pressure driving the BTC, Ethereum, and Dogecoin crash is coming from the U.S. Typically, a negative premium indicates that the BTC price on Coinbase is lower than the average global price, which signals weak demand from U.S. investors. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price October Top Is Back With A New Prediction Crypto researcher Kyle Soska noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum are roughly 10 days into a derisking event by U.S.-based entities, likely a combination of ETF users and large private, ultra-high-net-worth individuals. He further remarked that this places the market near the end of the selling episode based on historical data. Soska opined that the first of a near-term bottom would be a mean reversion of the Coinbase-Binance spot discount from its current level of around -$110 back to a more normal level range of around $40. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $85,000, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Put options have dominated trading activity over the past week.
Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out.
Previously having essentially written off chances of further monetary ease in 2025, interest rate traders are now pricing more than a 70% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
With Bitcoin trading around $85,000, Jeff Park, Partner and CIO at ProCap BTC, used his Nov. 20 conversation with Anthony Pompliano to argue that the drop may be valuable for reasons that have little to do with short-term “dip buying” and everything to do with narrative regime change. His central claim is that the classic halving-anchored rhythm is losing its foundation. Why The Bitcoin Crash Is Necessary “The four year cycle is almost definitively over,” Park said, because what it was “based off of historically, which is the halving, is just irrelevant from the additional marginal demand that comes from other channels that have opened up.” In his framing, the market is being pulled into a different cadence: “logically and fundamentally the four-year cycle should no longer exist and a new cycle should emerge that is more in sync with institutional risk capital appetite.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Fidelity Research Lead Weighs The Odds Park is careful not to treat that as a clean break, because beliefs still move prices. He stressed that a large legacy cohort continues to trade as if the four-year script is real. “There is still a big group of investors that believe it should exist,” he said, describing them as early adopters with “characteristics that almost feel like the occult where they have prophecies.” The key, in his view, is their supply control: “the biggest Bitcoin holders in wallets that are 10,000 [BTC] and plus in size still control a good chunk of the market […] they are still a third of the Bitcoin market.” That concentration makes the cycle potentially reflexive: “if a third of the Bitcoin holders believe the four-year cycle is true and they act like the four-year cycle is true, well then it doesn’t really matter because they’re the price setters […] these things can be self-fulfilling.” From there, Park pivots to why weakness into year-end could be constructive. He noted that Bitcoin is now “below year to date […] in 2025,” raising the prospect of a red close. In a deliberately sharp line, he joked that if 2025 ends negative, “that breaks the four-year cycle because now we have a red [yearly candle] and so it’s a three-year cycle.” Related Reading: Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026 The humor masks a strategic preference: “maybe we do need this red [candle] right now so we could have the ability to unleash the super cycle for Bitcoin to come without ever having to talk about the four-year cycle again.” Park framed a marginally green close as the worst of both worlds. “The last thing I want honestly is […] an up 5% year to 2025 where we close at like $98K or $99K or $100K and that counts as a green year,” he said, because then “the next year everyone’s going to talk about […] this is the down year now,” leaving 2026 under the “harrowing weight over your head that we’re actually going to have another down year.” Pompliano pressed the obvious counter-scenario: “Is there a world where it could just kind of rip right back […] and go to $140,000 or something?” Park didn’t rule it out. “It’s absolutely possible. Anything can happen,” he replied. But he summarized the trade-off starkly: “we either have to hope for […] that it either goes up a lot to make the year count or we just try to notch in a small loss here for the year so we can just wipe out the four-year cycle altogether.” For Park, Bitcoin at $85,000 is “good news” only insofar as it increases the odds of breaking a self-reinforcing calendar myth, clearing the way for a market driven less by halving folklore and more by institutional risk cycles. At press time, BTC traded at $84,469. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has found itself significantly exposed to the ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen more than $1 trillion in total market capitalization wiped out over the past month. As the largest public holder of Bitcoin, with over 650,000 coins, the company is now facing the real threat of being removed from major benchmark indices, which have been crucial for its visibility in mainstream portfolios. Analysts Predict Major Impact On Strategy According to a recent Bloomberg report, analysts at JPMorgan Chase have issued a warning that Saylor’s firm may lose its standing in key indices such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting The analysts assert that this could result in passive outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion if MSCI proceeds with a decision expected by January 15. Passive funds connected to the company currently account for nearly $9 billion in market exposure, making any index exclusion a substantial blow. Strategy’s business model has relied on a cyclical strategy of selling stock to buy Bitcoin, capitalizing on price rallies, and repeating this process. At its zenith, Saylor’s company’s market capitalization far exceeded the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, that premium has evaporated, and the company’s valuation now aligns closely with its crypto reserves—a stark indication that investor confidence is fading rapidly. “While active managers are not bound to adhere to index changes, exclusion from major indices would undoubtedly be viewed negatively by market participants,” noted JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Such a shift could affect liquidity, increase funding costs, and diminish overall investor appeal. MSCI Contemplates New Index Inclusion Rules In its ongoing consultations with stakeholders, MSCI indicated that some market players believe digital asset treasury firms (DATs) may function more like investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion. In accordance with these perspectives, MSCI has proposed excluding companies whose holdings in digital assets constitute 50% or more of their total assets from its global investment market indexes. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Since peaking last November, Saylor’s firm has seen its shares (MSTR) decline by over 60%, causing a collapse in the premium that once attracted momentum and crypto-focused investors. Despite this slump, Saylor’s company remains up over 1,300% since he first began purchasing Bitcoin in August 2020, outperforming major equity indices throughout this period. The selloff has extended its reach into the company’s newer funding structures, as well. The prices of its perpetual preferred shares—an essential part of Saylor’s recent strategies—have seen sharp declines. Additionally, yields on securities issued in March have risen to 11.5%, up from a previous 10.5%. A recent euro-denominated preferred stock offering has already dropped below its discounted offering price in under two weeks. Michael Youngworth, head of global convertible bond strategy at Bank of America Global Research, remarked, “That premium has collapsed in recent weeks,” adding that the present situation makes capital raising increasingly challenging. Feature image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
BTC dropped by $3K within a minute on Hyperliquid.
Data shows the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has declined to the lower bound of its range recently, which suggests a slowdown in momentum for BTC. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Is Now Retesting Its Lower Bound As explained by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has retraced to the lower bound of its long-term range. The “Mayer Multiple” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the BTC spot price and its 200-day moving average (MA). Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Dominated By US Selling, CryptoQuant Data Shows In technical analysis (TA), the 200-day MA is considered as a boundary between macro bullish and bearish trends. Whenever BTC is trading above this line, a bullish bias may be assumed to be in play. Similarly, the asset being under the mark can imply a market downturn. Since the Mayer Multiple compares the spot price with this level, it essentially tells us about how far above or below Bitcoin is from the bull-bear boundary. The cryptocurrency gaining a large distance over the 200-day MA may imply it’s becoming overpriced, while it being too far under could increase the chances of a rebound to the upside taking place. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is looking right now: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price has broken below the 200-day MA with its recent downtrend, which has resulted in the Mayer Multiple approaching a value of 0.8. This 0.8 level happens to be where the indicator’s long-term range has found its lower boundary in the past. The last time the metric fell below this line was during the 2022 bear market. “Historically, such compressions have aligned with value-driven phases where price consolidates and demand begins to step in,” noted the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether a break below is coming for Bitcoin or not. This technical boundary isn’t the only one that BTC is retesting; there are also a couple of important on-chain levels that the cryptocurrency happens to be trading around right now, making the current range a potentially significant one. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Strongest Support Zone Revealed—Here’s The Level In a post on X, Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt.₿ has shared some of the major on-chain price models. With its drop in the past day, Bitcoin has slipped under the Active Realized Price situated at $88,600, corresponding to the average cost basis of the active market participants. The next closest level is the True Market Mean, which is another cost basis model for the BTC network. Currently, this level is located at $82,000. “A breakdown below both Active Investors and the True Market Mean would mark the first major confirmation of a deeper bear trend since May 2022,” explained the Glassnode researcher. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $87,200, down 13% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 11 on Monday — deep within “extreme fear” territory and its lowest reading since late 2022.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight rebound after reaching a near eight-month low of $87,500 on Wednesday. By Thursday, the leading crypto surged back toward $90,000. However, market expert Leshka warns that this brief increase may signal only the start of a new distribution phase for Bitcoin, as selling pressure continues to build. Possible Bottom Between $40,700 And $47,500 In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Leshka assessed Bitcoin’s position on the weekly chart, identifying critical demand zones between $40,700 and $47,500 that could take shape throughout 2026. She suggested that these levels might represent the bottom for Bitcoin during the anticipated bear market. If such forecasts materialize, this could indicate price drops of 47% to 54% from current values. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting Despite these potential lows, Leshka remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. She mentioned that if these price targets are met, Bitcoin could rebound dramatically, reaching new all-time highs of around $150,000 by 2027. In the immediate time, however, bears appear to have the upper hand in the market. Analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that the TD Sequential indicator, which is designed to signal potential market reversals, has flashed a sell signal for Bitcoin. Historically, this indicator has been a reliable predictor of price corrections, with past occurrences resulting in drops of 78% and 32%. A median correction based on these previous downturns would indicate a possible price target of $40,000, aligning with Leshka’s forecasts for Bitcoin. Analyst Predicts Temporary Rally For Bitcoin Technical analysis from Crypto Feras also contributes to this bearish sentiment. He pointed out that Bitcoin has breached its 50-day moving average (MA50) placed above $102,000, suggesting that a period of reflection is in order. Feras indicated that the exponential moving averages (EMA89-99) could provide initial support at $88,500, typically facilitating a short-term “bearish retest” of the MA50 after a breakdown. The analyst noted that this potential rally usually lasts for two to five weeks and may see both Bitcoin and altcoins behave positively, even though investors might misinterpret it as a return to a bull market. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Additional support is noted at $84,000, which could be briefly retested. Feras suggested that this scenario might represent a final bear trap before a more prolonged downturn, a historical trend that could repeat itself. He also addressed the question of when the market might shift back into “bull mode.” According to Feras, Bitcoin will remain in a bear market as long as it trades below its weekly MA50. Once Bitcoin reclaims this important moving average, discussions regarding a potential bull market or continuation of a bull trend could resume. Until that happens, he emphasized that it is premature to label Bitcoin’s current phase as anything but bearish. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
U.S.-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs see record outflows.
Historically, yen weakness has been linked to risk-on sentiment. However, this narrative now appears challenged against the backdrop of Japan’s mounting fiscal strains.
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed how selling from US Bitcoin investors has dominated during the recent market downturn. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Points To US Selloff In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant has talked about some key pieces of data related to the US-dominated Bitcoin selloff. The first indicator that CryptoQuant has shared is the “Coinbase Premium Gap,” which keeps track of the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Strongest Support Zone Revealed—Here’s The Level As the below chart shows, the 30-hour moving average (MA) value of this metric has plummeted into the red territory recently. A negative value on the Coinbase Premium Gap indicates that the asset is trading at a price lower on Coinbase as compared to Binance. The former exchange is the preferred platform of the American investors, especially large institutional entities, while the latter one hosts a global traffic. As such, a red premium can be a sign that US-based whales are selling more than world investors. “The Coinbase Premium Gap dropped as low as -$90, which is a sign of strong U.S. selling pressure,” explained the analytics firm. Another metric that points toward extraordinary selling pressure from the American traders during the recent price decline is the cumulative return for the different trading sessions. From the above chart, it’s visible that both European and Asia-Pacific trading hours have seen an almost neutral return in Bitcoin over the past month. The American session, on the other hand, has witnessed a deep negative value. Another major way institutional entities invest in Bitcoin is through the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investment vehicles that hold BTC on behalf of their investors, and allow them to gain off-chain exposure to the coin’s price movements. These funds have also witnessed outflows during the selloff in the last few weeks. ETFs have seen net outflows for three straight weeks now, which is a departure from last year’s Q4 trend, where 194,000 BTC flowed into the wallets connected with these funds, but in Q4 2025 so far, 8,000 BTC has flowed out instead. “ETF outflows continue to weigh on the BTC spot market,” noted CryptoQuant. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Panic: 65,200 BTC Sent To Exchanges At Loss As for what could be next for Bitcoin, the cost basis of the spot ETFs may be worth watching for, which is located at $86,566. If the cryptocurrency breaches below this mark, holdings of the spot ETFs will go underwater. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,000, down more than 10% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, used a Yahoo Finance appearance to restate Bitwise’s view that Bitcoin is headed to $200,000 in 2026, while simultaneously characterizing the current sell-off as a maturing-market shakeout rather than a trend break. Is The Bottom In For Bitcoin? He opened with a near-term assessment that “we’re closer to the bottom here today than we have been for the past few weeks,” linking the drawdown to sharply risk-off conditions and to ETF-era flow dynamics. In his framing, Bitcoin “really was a leader of this risk-off move starting in mid-October,” and he expects it to “be a leader to the upside once things start to turn around,” adding that the market feels nearer to that inflection than it did “a week or two weeks ago.” When asked whether spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a double-edged sword, Rasmussen agreed, describing a market that now has deeper liquidity but more cross-currents. “Bitcoin, in our view, is one of the biggest technological developments of the past 15 years,” he said, before explaining that institutionalization brings “new investors and adds more liquidity to the market,” yet also means “we’re seeing a lot more choppiness in times where risk-off moves happen.” He pointed to hedge funds rotating in and out via basis trades and emphasized that “you just have more market participants.” Over time, he expects that shift to damp volatility, but not in a straight line: “throughout that journey, we’re going to see some choppiness, and certainly over the past month, we’ve seen that.” Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Bottom At $56,000? CryptoQuant CEO Presents The Data Pressed on why volatility still looks elevated, Rasmussen separated short-horizon spikes from long-run trend. “If you look at the trend over the past 10 years, volatility has certainly been falling,” he said, but conceded that “over this short-term period, you do see spikes in volatility.” The composition of buyers is, in his view, changing in a stabilizing direction. “The buyers for Bitcoin that we’re seeing come into the market today are more long-term buyers than we’ve seen in the past,” he said, naming wealth managers and financial advisors who “are adding Bitcoin to model portfolios” and “rebalancing on a standard basis.” That institutional style of demand “should all reduce volatility, add more long-term demand,” though he also noted a counterweight: corporate treasury buying that was strong earlier in the year has faded. “The corporate treasuries that are purchasing Bitcoin were coming in in size earlier this year, and that’s really dried up,” he said, arguing that this demand pause is “in part due to this sell-off that we’ve seen in October.” Bitcoin Still Set for $200,000 By 2026 Rasmussen acknowledged the pain of lower prices for recent buyers, but insisted the medium-term path remains higher. “Lower prices are a gift and a curse, of course,” he said. “A lot of investors are feeling pain right now who bought Bitcoin above $100,000 or closer to the $125,000 mark, but we believe that Bitcoin’s going to end the year higher than it is today.” He reiterated that the short-term bottoming process is likely advanced, and then pivoted to his structural thesis: “Institutions are finally here.” He stressed that adoption is gradual rather than instantaneous: “That doesn’t mean that right away they deploy all of their capital.” Even so, he cited early signals such as endowment participation: “even Harvard, we saw with their recent filing, is buying Bitcoin in their endowment.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Deepens Around $90K Level: Classic Late-Stage Fear Structure Emerging On macro, Rasmussen conceded an irony that an asset marketed as sovereign and untethered now reacts to central-bank expectations. Post-COVID, he said, Bitcoin has traded in a “fiscally-dominated environment where rate cuts and other macro elements do play more of a role,” and correlations to equities have “spike[d] or raise[d].” Still, he argued correlations are drifting back toward historical lows, and he emphasized Bitcoin’s tendency to do well in “low rate environments and risk on environments.” Regarding the December Fed meeting, he said “no cut in December is largely priced into the market,” and suggested investors have “already started to turn to 2026.” The price target itself was stated unambiguously. “So this year, we had a price target of $200,000. And I think it’s safe to say that come December, that’s not going to happen. But we do believe that in 2026, Bitcoin will hit $200,000,” Rasmussen said. He attributed that forecast to institutional inflows arriving “in waves,” spanning “wealth managers or endowments or pensions or corporations or governments,” which he believes are creating “a systemic imbalance of demand versus supply.” At press time, BTC traded at $91,205. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The package aims to ease the burden of inflation on households and businesses, according to media report
Bitcoin is currently trading below $92,000, and the market is showing clear signs of exhaustion as selling pressure intensifies. Fear has pushed sentiment toward the bearish end of the spectrum, with many analysts now arguing that BTC may be entering a new bear market. The loss of key support levels and the rapid acceleration of downside volatility have only fueled these concerns, especially as short-term holders continue to capitulate at scale. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Deepens Around $90K Level: Classic Late-Stage Fear Structure Emerging However, not all perspectives are bearish. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may be forming a local bottom, as the current correction resembles previous mid-cycle retracements seen during strong bull markets. They argue that the broader macro environment remains supportive and that long-term holders have not shown signs of structural weakness. As selling pressure concentrates among weak hands, the possibility of a reversal increases — especially once forced sellers exhaust themselves. Adding to the uncertainty, new on-chain data from Lookonchain revealed that Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden just deposited all his remaining 2,499 BTC into Kraken roughly an hour ago. Moves like this often trigger speculation, as exchange deposits from early holders can signal potential selling. Yet historically, similar events have also occurred near cycle bottoms when panic is at its peak. A Massive BTC Transfer Sparks Market Speculation According to fresh data from Lookonchain, Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden has just deposited his remaining 2,499 BTC (worth $228 million) into Kraken roughly an hour ago. This move has immediately raised questions across the market, as large exchange deposits from early whales often signal potential selling pressure. What makes this development even more notable is the context: just two weeks ago, Lookonchain reported that Gunden appeared ready to offload his entire 11,000 BTC stash — a position worth over $1.12 billion at the time. Now, with this final deposit, it appears he has officially completed the move. For many traders, this confirms that one of the oldest and largest long-term holders has fully exited or is preparing to exit the market. Such whale behavior can amplify fear during corrective phases, especially as Bitcoin continues to struggle below $92K. Moves of this scale not only contribute to short-term volatility but also influence sentiment by signaling that even early accumulators may be reducing exposure. However, historically, capitulation events from long-term holders have often coincided with or preceded major turning points. If this massive transfer marks the end of Gunden’s sell-off, the market may soon absorb the pressure — potentially clearing the path for a recovery once the fear subsides. Related Reading: Nearly 7M Bitcoin Now Sitting At A Loss: Highest Unrealized Pain Since January 2024 Short-Term Trend Still Under Pressure Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart reveals a market that remains firmly under short-term selling pressure, despite occasional relief bounces. The price is struggling to reclaim $92,000, a level that previously acted as support but is now working as resistance. The series of lower highs and lower lows highlights a persistent downtrend that has shaped BTC’s trajectory since early October. All major moving averages—the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA—are positioned above current price action and pointing downward. This alignment confirms a clear short-term bearish structure. Each time BTC attempts to recover, it meets strong resistance at these declining MAs, signaling that sellers remain in control. The most recent bounce barely reached the 50 SMA before being rejected again, reinforcing the weakness of buyer momentum. Related Reading: XRP Supply In Profit Falls to 58.5% – Lowest Since 2024 Despite Higher Price Volume remains elevated on downswings, which indicates that sell-offs continue to be driven by conviction rather than random volatility. Buyers are stepping in around the $89,000–$91,000 zone, but so far, this support has only produced temporary pauses rather than meaningful reversals. For a structural shift, BTC would need to reclaim at least the $95,000 area and break above the 100 SMA. Until then, the trend remains tilted toward further downside or continued consolidation near current levels. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com