Following a significant downturn that saw Bitcoin (BTC) plunge to the $80,000 mark on November 21, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to stabilize above this critical threshold for several days. This development has sparked speculation about whether this level represents a short-term bottom and if a new upward trend might follow. Potential Local Bottom For Bitcoin According to analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman, on-chain data indicates a market landscape characterized by institutional redistribution, structural weakness, and signs of a rebound that may hint at a local bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Less Than 50% Chance Of Hitting $100,000 By December 31, Says AI Model One of the observations made is that large whale investors have been actively distributing their holdings. The cohorts holding more than 10,000 BTC and those with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC appear to be primarily in a selling position. Carmelo stated that this kind of behavior reflects ongoing profit-taking by institutions looking to reduce their risk exposure, which leads to an overall offloading of supply into the market. Retail investors have also been contributing to the distribution trend. Over the past 60 days, wallets holding between 0 to 1 BTC and 1 to 10 BTC have demonstrated net selling rather than accumulation, suggesting a lack of purchasing support from the retail sector. In contrast, mid-sized BTC holders—those in the 100 to 1,000 BTC range—appear to be acquiring steadily, while the 10 to 100 BTC group is showing consistent accumulation. Hidden Bullish Divergence After this 11-day selling spree, signs of stabilization have emerged. Bitcoin has rebounded above $89,000 on late Monday, which may suggest the formation of a local bottom, although this has yet to be conclusively confirmed. However, while momentum is positive, Aleman warned that the possibility of a trend reversal is heavily reliant on ongoing accumulation from crucial investor cohorts, notably mid-sized investors. While there are obvious rebounds and support from particular groups, the continued distribution of the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort prevents definitive confirmation of a trend reversal. Related Reading: Latest Crypto Crash Wipes $1 Billion Off Trump Family’s Wealth Other analysts, including Ash Crypto, have noted bullish indicators that further support this outlook. He highlighted that Bitcoin is experiencing a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that selling pressure is easing, momentum is stabilizing, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) may soon reverse. If this hidden bullish divergence is confirmed, it typically precedes a strong continuation rally, according to the analyst, adding to the argument that BTC may be on the verge of a new upward trajectory. Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,150, 30% below its all-time high of $126,000. This momentum has caused the top cryptocurrency to erase all gains recorded in all time frames, including year-to-date, with a drop of roughly 9% during this period. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Major moving averages on price charts are likely to act as key battlegrounds where bulls and bears fight for control.
In the dynamic and often volatile landscape of digital assets, Bitcoin’s position as the premier store of value in the digital asset space remains firmly intact, even as the broader crypto ecosystem evolves. Its unmatched network strength, fixed supply, and resilient global infrastructure continue to make it the benchmark against all digital assets. Unmatched Network Security Keeps Bitcoin In The Lead Bitcoin remains the largest and most secure store of value in the crypto ecosystem, with a market capitalization surpassing $1.7 trillion and increasingly unmatched institutional adoption. However, analyst Ted has noted on X that the BTC base layer was never built for decentralized finance (DeFi). Related Reading: Historic Downturn: Bitcoin Nears Worst Weekly Performance In Over A Year Most of BTC’s capital sits idle and is unable to support the complex financial applications. This is where the BTCFi emerges, and it’s rising because it activates this dormant capital without forcing users or liquidity away from BTC’s security. Ted highlighted that Arch Network is a utility layer that enables the development of expressive rush in smart contracts directly to BTC for high performance. It offers real-time state management, true interoperability, and fast parallel execution, while remaining fully aligned with the BTC UTXO model. This ensures that all settlements and final state changes remain anchored directly to BTC for maximum security. The applications on ArchVM generate Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proofs for each batch of transactions, and BTC nodes verify those proofs on-chain; a design that enables fast trading, money lending, credit markets, and real-world asset (RWA) applications with the L1-level trust. Furthermore, Ted describes the Arch Network as aiming to become a core piece of the infrastructure pillar for the emerging BTCFi ecosystem. Bitcoin Stabilizes As Market Volatility Cools Off The cryptocurrency market is now showing signs of stabilization, positioning Bitcoin for a potential resurgence. According to CryptosRus, last Friday, BTC appeared to have firmly bottomed just above the $82,000 level, a crucial development that analysts are pointing to as a potential renewed market strength. While the selling pressure is fading, these key developments could trigger a near-term bounce for BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Loses Strength, Traders Watch $90K as Last Line of Defense Swissblock outlines a sharp risk-off signal, suggesting that the worst phase of capitulation may be over. The market might still experience a second weaker wave of selling pressure, which would mark the exhaustion of any remaining sellers, and shift the market towards the bulls. Fed rate cuts are surging, as the December cut probability is climbing back to 70%, fueling optimism for liquidity support. Furthermore, liquidity injection is possible, and market analysts are highlighting that the actions from the Fed could expand reserves, which have historically proven to be bullish for the crypto market. With selling pressure easing and policy tailwinds building, BTC’s climb may continue signaling a potential recovery. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level as selling pressure continues to dominate across the crypto market. The sharp decline from the all-time high has fueled growing speculation that the current cycle may have already peaked, with many analysts now calling for the beginning of a bear market. Sentiment has shifted rapidly, and fear is spreading as traders question whether the bullish structure has been permanently broken. Related Reading: Bitmine Scoops Up Another 28,625 Ethereum ($82.1M) as Market Bleeds – Details However, not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. A segment of market participants still expects a rebound, arguing that the correction is part of a broader continuation pattern rather than the end of the cycle. These optimistic observers believe that higher prices could still unfold once selling exhaustion sets in. According to top analyst Darkfost, the recent price action reflects a notable behavioral shift in traders. He explains that investors who attempted to long the market throughout the correction have finally been squeezed out. Funding rates, which had remained elevated during the decline, have now cooled and even turned negative — a strong signal that sentiment has flipped. Darkfost notes that traders waited for Bitcoin to correct more than 30% before shifting aggressively into short positions, highlighting a delayed reaction that often appears near market inflection points. Funding Rates Flip Negative as Short Dominance Takes Over Darkfost explains that the latest shift in funding rates is more meaningful than it appears on the surface. He notes that traders often assume the neutral funding level is 0%, but that is not the case. Most exchanges — including Binance — embed an interest component of roughly 0.01% into the funding calculation. This means that when funding drops below 0.01%, it already reflects short-side dominance. Therefore, when funding turns negative, it signals an even stronger tilt toward aggressive short positioning. According to Darkfost, this marks a clear behavioral change among derivatives traders, suggesting that the market has transitioned from forced long unwinds to conviction-based short exposure. Historically, these shifts tend to occur only once a correction is already deep into its progression. Darkfost highlights that such funding transitions often reflect trader capitulation — where participants who fought the downtrend finally flip and attempt to follow momentum, but only after most of the move has already unfolded. This phenomenon has appeared in previous cycle retracements and has frequently coincided with late-stage bottoms. He adds that Bitcoin may now be entering a disbelief phase, where price begins climbing while shorts continue to pile in. If this dynamic persists, it could act as fuel for an upside reversal, especially if spot demand wakes up and liquidations pressure the short side instead. Related Reading: 63K Bitcoin Exits Long-Term Wallets: A Surge of Speculative Short-Term Buying BTC Price Testing Short-Term Supply Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline, with the chart showing price currently trading around $87,000 following a rebound from the recent plunge near $80,000. The downtrend remains clearly defined, as BTC continues to trade below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, signaling persistent bearish momentum. The slope of these moving averages has turned downward, reinforcing the shift in trend structure. Despite the bounce, the recovery lacks strong volume support, which suggests that buyers have not yet returned with conviction. Related Reading: STH Panic Emerges as Bitcoin Crashes To $81K: Realized P/L Turns Negative For The First Time This Cycle The chart shows that previous support levels around $95,000 and $100,000 have now become resistance areas, making them key levels to watch for any attempted recovery. A failure to reclaim these zones could trigger renewed selling pressure and a retest of the recent lows. However, the wick below $80,000 indicates aggressive buying at the lows, which could signal that a short-term bottom is forming if buyers continue to defend higher lows in the coming days. Market sentiment remains fragile, yet the stabilization above $85,000 hints at a potential consolidation phase rather than immediate continuation of the decline. A sustained move above the 100-day moving average would be the first meaningful signal of regained bullish momentum. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A recent claim that the Bitcoin price could surge to $220,000 in just 45 days has drawn sharp criticism from a financial strategist. The analyst frames such ambitious forecasts as unrealistic and highly speculative. Considering the recent decline in the BTC market, if the projection is taken at face value without supporting data, it overlooks ongoing market trends, macroeconomic conditions, and potential investor risks. Strategist Labels $220,000 Bitcoin Price Forecast “Nonsense” South Korean scientist YoungHoon Kim, who holds the world’s highest reported IQ of 276, recently predicted that Bitcoin could more than double its current price and reach $220,000 within 45 days. Based on this forecast, the BTC price is expected to surge by over 151% from current levels below $87,500, potentially reaching a new all-time high by mid-January 2026. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price Action With Chinese Astrology Shares When Prices Will Surge With Bitcoin down more than 31% from its ATH above $126,000, the bold forecast came as a surprise to many crypto members. The founder of Black Swan Capitalist, Versan Aljarrah, in particular, criticized the projection, calling it “nonsense.” He described it as an example of the speculative behavior that has long characterized the crypto space. Aljarrah argued that predictions like Kim’s, which lack the visible support of a technical analysis, are what transform the crypto space into a “circus.” He highlighted that Bitcoin maxis will often go to extreme lengths to sustain the hype, promoting narratives that keep the speculative bubble alive even when market fundamentals raise caution. The Black Swan Capitalist founder also disclosed that Bitcoin has historically functioned more as a tool for predators and bad actors. His statements suggest that Kim’s forecast oversimplifies the complexities of the crypto market and distracts investors and traders from the fundamental structural factors driving Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin Price Continues To Falter Amidst Bullish Forecasts The Bitcoin market remains at a crossroads, with analysts forecasting sharp upward moves despite choppy price action. Despite predictions of a potential rally, BTC’s recent performance paints a more cautious picture, as its price has fallen by more than 20% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. Related Reading: Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026 Crypto analyst Pepesso recently issued a bullish forecast, suggesting that Bitcoin may have hit its bottom and could potentially start a recovery toward levels between $126,000 and $160,000. However, broader market indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, point to extreme fear, suggesting investors remain highly uncertain about BTC’s near-term outlook. Other analysts, like Gen Detector, have presented a more conservative outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could first stabilize around the $100,000 psychological level before its next bear wave begins. However, he has not ruled out the likelihood of further price corrections, highlighting the potential for BTC to revisit the $70,000 to $50,000 range before the next major bull run. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Gains in AI-fueled stocks and heavy crypto leverage have widened the gap between bitcoin and equities.
Bitcoin’s three-year advance may be rolling over, according to Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino, who argues that BTC has now completed a “triple bearish divergence” on higher timeframes – a structure he characterises as the trend “dying under the hood” even as price printed fresh highs. Bitcoin Has Hit A Triple Bearish Divergence In a video published on November 24 and shared on X, Severino says he had to go beyond standard references to formalise the pattern. “I really never heard that statement before,” he admits of the term triple negative divergence. “There wasn’t a lot of information on Google […] I turned to AI, turned to ChatGPT.” His working definition: “three successive higher highs on price and three successive lower highs on the technical indicator.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Local Bottom To Fall Between These Two Levels – Analyst A standard bearish divergence occurs when price makes a higher high while an oscillator such as RSI, MACD or Stochastic posts a lower high, signalling trend exhaustion. Extending that to three peaks, Severino says, amplifies the warning: “A triple negative or triple bearish divergence is basically the market screaming, price is still drifting higher, but under the hood, this trend is dying.” Later he adds, “A single divergence is already a warning. A triple divergence is like yellow, orange, flashing red.” Severino maps this pattern onto Bitcoin’s bull cycle using the monthly chart, anchored around three key highs. The first, he argues, came around the spot ETF launch and aligned with a wave-three impulse in his Elliott Wave count. “This was our ETF launch and it was during our wave three impulse […] everybody’s excited. We had the ETF launch […] strong volume, strong momentum,” he says, calling it the cycle’s momentum peak. The second high broke that level but on weaker internals. “Second high breaks the old high. The indicator’s high is weaker. This represents fewer aggressive buyers. Early participants start taking profits. This was me. I started taking profit here,” he notes. In his interpretation, that push represented a fifth wave. The third high, marginally above prior peaks near $126,000, is where he sees exhaustion. “On the third high, price index is higher. Marginal new high […] I sold around $105k […] we went to $126k, so I left only a very small amount on the table to not get caught up in what comes after all this,” he says. The oscillator, however, made yet another lower high: “Buyers are exhausted at this point. Shorts are covering, late FOMO buyers push it just a little bit higher. Pros use this zone to offload positions or start shorting.” He argues that sentiment at the top was complacent rather than euphoric. “I don’t think we were euphoric here. I think we were euphoric at this one […] but we were very complacent this whole time […] everybody just was like, it’s going up forever.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Yet To Top In This Cycle? What aSOPR Suggests Crucially, Severino insists the divergence is a setup, not a standalone trigger: “You want confirmation before acting.” He points to several. First, a break of the rising trendline connecting the major swing lows: “Here is our trend line and we are below. There is our confirmation.” Second, loss of key moving averages such as the 20 and 50 EMA that had supported the uptrend. Third, a regime shift in weekly RSI: during the bull, it repeatedly bounced in the 40–50 zone, but now, he says, “falling below it is confirmation that the trend is now no longer holding.” On volume, he warns against reading the recent spike on a down candle as capitulation. While the FTX bottom showed extreme, climactic volume, the latest breakout in selling may instead be “the breakout and start of a trend” to the downside, he suggests, especially given the declining volume into Bitcoin’s final highs. How Low Can Bitcoin Go? For potential downside, Severino overlays Fibonacci levels on the full advance and references guidance that triple divergences often resolve toward the 0.5–0.618 retracement between $44,100 and $34,409. In Bitcoin’s case, he marks a wide lower zone where an A-B-C structure could terminate, estimating “about like 60 something percent, maybe even closer to 70” from the top – “very par for the course for a Bitcoin bear market,” in his words. More ominously, he hints at a “bigger version of this” on even higher timeframes, suggesting a larger triple divergence may be forming with the recent structure nested inside it. “This could not be so great for the higher time frames Bitcoin,” he says. Still, he repeatedly stresses uncertainty and risk management. “I can’t say that this signal is the end-all be-all […] it doesn’t guarantee anything,” he says. “I definitely don’t want you to be like, hey, Tony, well, I believe you 100%. Immediately, I’m going to sell my coins. No, it’s not financial advice […] It’s more about how you manage risk.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,658. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
BTC drifts or stabilizes during Asia trading hours, softens slightly during the European handover and then absorbs most of its losses once U.S. equity markets open.
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how a technical analysis (TA) signal that led into major price declines in the past has returned for Bitcoin. Monthly MACD Has Turned Bearish For Bitcoin In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a signal that has formed in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin. MACD is a TA indicator that’s generally used for timing buys and sells in an asset’s price chart. Related Reading: USDC Floods Exchanges: Are Traders Buying The Bitcoin Crash? The indicator consists of two lines: MACD line and signal line. The first of these, the MACD line, is found by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) of the price from its 12-period EMA. The signal line tracks the 9-period EMA of this difference. Crossovers between the two lines can provide buy or sell signals for the asset. The MACD line breaking above the signal line could be considered a bullish signal, while the reverse type of crossover a bearish one. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows how the monthly MACD has changed for Bitcoin over the last several years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MACD has registered a crossover recently. The MACD line has plunged as the asset has witnessed its bearish momentum and it’s now sitting under the signal line. As mentioned earlier, such a signal can be a bearish one. In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the past instances of this pattern. It would appear that the last three sell signals from the indicator all led into declines of more than 60% for the cryptocurrency. “If that repeats, the chart points to $40,000,” noted Martinez. It now remains to be seen whether the MACD will hold for Bitcoin, or if a different trend from the past will follow this time around. The MACD line falling under its signal line isn’t the only bearish crossover that BTC has faced recently. As the analyst has pointed out in another X post, a classic death cross has also appeared between the asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-day SMA. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 50-day SMA has declined below the 200-day SMA alongside the latest Bitcoin market downturn. During the past couple of years, each such signal has marked local bottoms for BTC, but in 2022, this crossover kicked off the bear market. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Yet To Top In This Cycle? What aSOPR Suggests So far since the death cross has appeared, the asset has continued to decline, a potential sign that this death cross may be different from the recent ones. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $88,800, down over 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com
The Japanese company executed new borrowing as part of its expanding bitcoin focused funding strategy.
A sharp drawdown has pushed BTC towards heavy put positioning at $80,000 ahead of Friday’s expiry.
Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing one of the most challenging periods of the year, with prices retracting nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached last month. This decline has raised concerns about a potential bear market, fueling fears within the cryptocurrency community and among BTC investors. Despite this, a new AI-driven simulation by Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson offers a more tempered outlook. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Peterson indicated that while the situation remains complicated, the simulation suggests that the bottom might have already been reached or could occur within the week. Bitcoin Predicted To Experience Slow Recovery In his analysis, Peterson predicts a slow recovery for the Bitcoin price leading up to the year’s end, though he projects less than a 50% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark by December 31. Related Reading: CEO Reveals Ripple’s XRP Is Driving A JPMorgan Competitor, Is SWIFT Next? The model presented suggests a nuanced scenario where there is at least a 15% chance that Bitcoin could close lower at approximately $84,500 and an 85% chance of finishing higher. However, it is crucial to note that these estimates are based on seasonal averages and do not account for anticipated changes in the broader economic situation, to which BTC has shown vulnerability throughout the year. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pattern where significant price movements are often followed by periods of consolidation. If this trend holds, Bitcoin may stabilize within a new range between $84,000 and $90,000, with the $80,000 level serving as a crucial support point for short-term price action. Fed’s December Rate Path According to recent reports, one factor contributing to Bitcoin’s current struggles is the sentiment among investors, particularly those who purchased when prices hovered around $90,000. Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? With the cryptocurrency now trading below this threshold, approximately at $88,900 when writing, many investors may be hesitant to buy in again, especially if they are facing margin calls due to borrowed funds. The upcoming days could prove pivotal for the broader cryptocurrency market as delayed economic data is set to be released ahead of Thanksgiving. Barron’s reports that if the data strengthens the narrative for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in December, it could provide a boost to Bitcoin and its peers. Conversely, if the Fed opts to maintain interest rates, it might trigger further sell-offs in the crypto sector. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, emphasizes the importance of the $80,000 technical support level for Bitcoin. She stated that a breach below this level could further embolden bearish sentiments, adding additional downward pressure on prices. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Derivatives metrics show rising bearish positioning followed by a sharp reduction in open interest, while price recovery hints at early squeeze dynamics.
Bitcoin has been in freefall recently, but this popular indicator is yet to reach the same highs as the last two cycles. Is the real top still ahead for the asset? Bitcoin aSOPR Has Been Consolidating For The Last Two Years As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin aSOPR has been consolidating between converging trendlines for nearly two years. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. Related Reading: USDC Floods Exchanges: Are Traders Buying The Bitcoin Crash? When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder is transferring their coins at some net profit on the blockchain. On the other hand, the indicator being below this threshold implies the dominance of loss taking on the network. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to 1 suggests profit realization is canceling out loss realization. In other words, the investors as a whole are just breaking even on their sales. In the context of the current discussion, the version of the SOPR that’s of interest is the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR). This indicator eliminates from the data sales of all coins that moved within an hour of their last movement. Such moves are usually relay transactions and carry no consequences for the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years: As the quant has highlighted in the graph, the 2017 and first-half 2021 bull runs both interestingly topped out as the aSOPR rose to the red line. This level corresponds to a notable degree of profit realization among the investors. Similarly, the bear markets of the last two cycles found their bottoms at about the same time as the aSOPR hitting a low at the green line, some distance below the 1 mark. At this level, loss-taking is dominant, so weak hands capitulating and resolute entities accumulating their coins could be behind the bottom formation pattern. In the current cycle so far, the aSOPR hasn’t touched the red line. Instead, the indicator has been stuck in consolidation inside two converging trendlines in a mild profit-taking region for almost the last two years. Considering the pattern of the last two cycles, it’s possible that the latest one hasn’t hit its top yet. Another possibility, however, could very well be that the aSOPR simply isn’t going to touch the red level in this cycle at all. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Retraces To Lower Bound—What Comes Next? The Bitcoin aSOPR is now slowly inching toward the end of its converging channel, so a breakout one way or the other could happen soon. It only remains to be seen which direction the indicator will exit. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,300, down 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The strategy bets on a measured rally into the year-end, rather than a record-breaking surge.
Bitcoin’s drop has knocked a huge chunk off the estimated wealth tied to its mysterious creator. Prices fell more than 30% from an October peak near $126,000 to around $85,500, and that slump has cut the value of the coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto by roughly $41 billion. Related Reading: Kiyosaki Dumps Bitcoin At $90K After Predicting A $250K Moonshot – Here’s Why Satoshi’s On-Chain Holdings Under Scrutiny According to on-chain analysts, about 1.1 million BTC are attributed to Satoshi by patterns seen in early mining. Reports have disclosed that this total was worth about $138 billion at Bitcoin’s October high. Based on current prices, those holdings are now estimated at close to $96 billion. That places the pseudonymous owner below US billionaire Bill Gates, who is estimated at about $104 billion. These figures are estimates, and the methods used to tie addresses to the creator are debated. Early Mining Pattern Still Contested Arkham Intelligence and other blockchain researchers point to the so-called Patoshi Pattern as the key evidence linking many early blocks to one actor. The pattern is a technical signature in the way early blocks were mined. It is not proof of identity. Some experts say the pattern strongly suggests a single miner was responsible for many of the earliest coins. Source: Arkham Others caution that assumptions about ownership must be treated carefully. The wallets in question have been largely inactive for years. That inactivity makes the idea of liquidating such a stake more theoretical than practical. Market Volatility Highlights Paper Wealth Risk A lesson here is simple. When most of a fortune is in one asset, swings in price move the headline number a lot. The $41 billion drop is a paper loss. No sale was reported. The funds remain where they have been for years. Still, the change in valuation has pushed Satoshi down in hypothetical rich lists compiled by observers and crypto outlets. Wealth trackers that require verified identities, like Forbes, do not include Satoshi because the ownership and identity are not confirmed. Long-Term Questions Remain Based on reports, the discussion also revived talk about what dormant crypto holdings mean for public measures of wealth. Some commentators raised more speculative concerns, such as future technical threats that could affect custody of private keys. Those scenarios are distant and uncertain, and they remain a matter for technical debate rather than immediate reality. Related Reading: $2 Billion Gone In Minutes: Bitcoin Slide Shakes Crypto World What This Means For The Market Traders watching Bitcoin see how much headline numbers can swing. A 30% move in a few weeks changes math dramatically. Investors who focus on stable, diversified holdings might view this as another reminder of crypto’s big swings. For now, Satoshi Nakamoto remains silent, as always, despite his/her massive loss; and the coins attributed to the enigmatic crypto creator sit largely untouched — and their paper value will rise or fall with Bitcoin’s next moves. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim momentum as it trades below the critical $90,000 level, with selling pressure dominating the market and fear spreading rapidly. Many analysts are leaning toward calling the start of a new bear market, arguing that Bitcoin likely topped in early October near $126,000. Momentum has weakened sharply since then, and investor behavior now reflects a shift toward risk-off positioning. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Loses Big: $61M in Profit Wiped Out As Ethereum and XRP Longs Collapse A new report from CryptoOnchain, published via CryptoQuant, highlights one of the most significant developments of this cycle: a historic 63,000 BTC has moved from long-term holders (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs). This unprecedented transfer is clearly visible in the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change chart, which shows a massive red bar — a negative daily difference signaling heavy outflows from long-term holder wallets. This type of behavior typically appears during late-stage bull markets or near local and cycle tops, when long-time investors with substantial profit margins begin realizing gains. At the same time, the corresponding Short-Term Holder Net Position Change chart shows a huge green bar, confirming that newer, more reactive market participants are buying these coins, often at elevated prices. Long-Term Holders Distribute as Short-Term Buyers Absorb Supply CryptoOnchain explains that the current market structure is being shaped by a clear divergence in behavior between Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and Short-Term Holders (STHs). LTHs — historically considered the “strong hands” of the market — are now heavily distributing, sending large amounts of Bitcoin into the market after months or even years of holding. At the same time, STHs are aggressively buying and accumulating this supply, often entering positions at elevated prices despite growing volatility. This dynamic is not inherently a bearish signal on its own. In fact, such transitions are common during late-stage bull markets, where early investors secure profits while new participants enter the market with fresh capital. It reflects a natural rotation of supply from experienced holders to newer ones, a pattern seen repeatedly in previous cycles. However, the volume of distribution is significant, and it raises an important risk: if incoming demand fails to fully absorb the coins being offloaded by LTHs, the market could face a deeper correction or extended consolidation phase. This supply pressure can weigh on price, especially in a context where sentiment is fragile and macro conditions remain uncertain. Related Reading: STH Panic Emerges as Bitcoin Crashes To $81K: Realized P/L Turns Negative For The First Time This Cycle Weekly Chart Signals a Critical Retest of Macro Support Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize around the $87,000 level after an intense multi-week sell-off that dragged price as low as $85,946. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has now tapped the 100-week moving average (green line), a historically important support level during bull-market retracements. This line acted as a springboard in previous cycles, but the current bounce remains weak and indecisive, reflecting the fear dominating the market. Momentum has clearly shifted bearish. The breakdown from the $110K–$100K consolidation zone triggered accelerated selling, confirming a loss of market structure on the weekly timeframe. Candles over the past three weeks show high-volume distribution, with sellers overwhelming demand each time Bitcoin attempted to reclaim higher levels. The steep slope of the 50-week MA turning slightly down is another sign that trend strength has softened. Related Reading: Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden Deposits Final 2,499 BTC ($228M) to Kraken – Details However, the reaction at the 100-week MA is critical. Bulls aggressively defended this area in prior macro corrections, and holding above $83K–$86K keeps the long-term bull structure intact. A weekly close below this zone, however, opens the door to deeper downside toward the 200-week MA near $56K–$60K. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Traders now see a December rate cut increasingly likely, following fresh comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
Crypto analyst Crypto Waterman, who predicted the Bitcoin price action with Chinese Astrology, has revealed when the flagship crypto will surge alongside altcoins. This comes as BTC looks to rebound from its recent crash to as low as $81,000. Analyst Reveals When The Bitcoin Price Will Surge In an X post, Crypto Waterman predicted that the Bitcoin price would surge from December 5 after it bottoms between November 28 and 29, when Mercury retrograde ends. He further remarked that there will be high swings up and down between November 29 and December 5, noting that the current market action is similar to mid-July 2021 in the previous cycle. Related Reading: Analyst Who Sold Bitcoin At $102,000 Predicts Crash To $40,000, But There’s Something Else The crypto analyst stated that the Bitcoin price rise will happen from December 5 to December 18 for two weeks, with the relief rally sending BTC to between $100,000 and $110,000. Once that happens, he predicts a three-week dip from December 18 to January 6, which will push BTC down to between $90,000 and $100,000. After the dip, Crypto Waterman predicts that the Bitcoin price will rise from December 6 to mid-February, hitting a new all-time high (ATH) during that period. He expects the flagship crypto to rally to between $140,000 and $145,000. Notably, the crypto analyst has so far accurately predicted the November BTC price action, which he claimed was with the help of Chinese astrology. Based on this, the crypto analyst is confident that the Bitcoin price is about to have its final leg in this bull market cycle. He also expects altcoins to witness one final rally to the upside, predicting that altseason should happen between January and February. Crypto Waterman also revealed that he plans to exit most of his bags in mid-February or the beginning of March as the market enters the horse year. ‘Too Early’ To Call For New ATH Crypto analyst Colin has indicated that it is too early to predict that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high. This follows the recent BTC rebound from its lows of around $81,000 last week. The analyst explained that a bounce was inevitable after the flagship crypto was so oversold. However, he isn’t flipping macro bullish on expecting a new ATH too quickly. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Suffer 40% Crash From All-Time High? Analyst Reveals ‘Final Target’ The analyst further remarked that such a bounce says nothing about new ATHs and that BTC must reclaim major key levels well above current levels to have a chance of reaching new ATHs. He added that he expects the Bitcoin price to reach $100,000 on this bounce, but that won’t mean that a new ATH is in sight. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,500, up almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
The price of bitcoin jumped back above $87,000 and crypto miners with a focus on AI/high-performance computing are surging.
The bitcoin price drop to $80,000 last week reflected a mix of macro pressure, fading regulatory momentum and thinning liquidity that has tested bitcoin’s maturity.
Bitcoin’s six-week collapse has erased over $40,000 from its price, yet—according to Jeff Park, CIO at ProCap BTC and Bitwise advisor—the more important story may lie not in spot markets but in volatility. In his November 22 Substack post “Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?”, Park argues that “market structure has flipped sharply negative,” citing ETF outflows, the Coinbase discount, structural selling, and liquidations of over-levered longs. But beneath that surface stress, he says, “something in the structure of Bitcoin’s volatility markets is stirring again—something that looks more like the old Bitcoin, not the new one.” Sudden Twist In Bitcoin Skew Has Expert On High Alert For nearly two years, the consensus has been that the ETF era “tamed Bitcoin” and “crushed volatility.” Spot ETFs channeled institutional flows into volatility-muting structures, dampening the wild swings that once defined BTC. Yet Park notes that over the last 60 days, implied volatility (IV) has trended higher for the first time in 2025. Even more telling: IV kept rising while spot fell—an uncommon dynamic since ETFs launched. That, he says, “might be the first signal of a regime shift” back toward pre-ETF market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Local Bottom To Fall Between These Two Levels – Analyst Historical context sharpens his point. Between 2021 and 2022, IV spiked repeatedly—156% during China’s mining ban, 114% in the Luna/UST collapse, and again in the 3AC and FTX crises. Since FTX, volatility “has never traded above 80%,” and vol-of-vol (the “velocity” of volatility itself) has remained below 100, a post-ETF pattern of subdued convexity. But the latest upward drift, Park argues, suggests that the “convex, breakaway vol behavior” that once defined Bitcoin could be re-emerging. That shift carries structural implications. During past crises, put skew widened sharply, reaching –25%. But Park highlights an opposite kind of stress test—January 2021—when call skew surged above +50% and triggered Bitcoin’s last “mega-gamma squeeze.” Dealers short call gamma were forced to buy spot into a rising market, pushing BTC from $20,000 to $40,000 in weeks. It was, he recalls, “the first time Deribit saw record retail flows as traders discovered the power of OTM calls.” Today’s skew data looks different but potentially telling. “The 30-day put skew is the lowest it has been all year,” Park writes, suggesting defensive premiums are elevated and “further volatility to the downside is not unwarranted.” Yet Deribit’s open interest shows a market still leaning bullish in notional terms. Related Reading: Only An Asteroid Can Sink MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet, CryptoQuant CEO Says As of November 22, the largest positions include roughly $1 billion in Dec 26 $85k puts, $950 million in $140k calls, and $720 million in $200k calls—more upside than downside exposure overall. Similarly, the largest IBIT options are “more calls than puts, and the range of strikes are more OTM than the puts.” Park’s broader thesis is that volatility itself may again become Bitcoin’s catalyst. He draws parallels to February–March 2024, when sustained ETF inflows and a steady vol bid preceded a dramatic melt-up. “Wall Street needs high volatility for Bitcoin to be interesting,” he writes, noting that institutional desks chase trend P&L into year-end, and “volatility is a reflexive machine.” Whether that machine is restarting remains uncertain. Park concludes that if spot continues to fall while IV climbs, “the case strengthens that a sharp upside reversal could materialize.” But if vol stalls or slips as price declines—“classic sticky-delta behavior”—then the drawdown may harden into “the early contours of a potential bear trend.” In essence, Park’s message is that Bitcoin’s most revealing signal isn’t price but structure. After two years of ETF-driven calm, volatility is moving again—and in Bitcoin’s history, when vol wakes up, price rarely stays still for long. At press time, BTC traded at $85,912. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto is stuck in a second-year post-halving slump, with ETF outflows and jittery long-term holders pushing bitcoin toward the bank’s bear-case outlook.
The company's stock valuation sits near cycle lows as index exclusion chatter grows.
Rising margin bitcoin longs show confidence despite bitcoins ongoing correction.
Underground activity expands as cheap power, miner demand and softer policy signals support a renewed mining push in key provinces in China.
The $80K BTC put is now the most popular options play on Deribit.
The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw a record $40 billion in trading volume last week, with IBIT leading the way.
After days of intense bearish action, the price of Bitcoin appears to be entering a calmer state, as it recovers above the $86,000 level. The latest on-chain data shows that several investors tried to take some profit in the past week, providing a basis for the premier cryptocurrency registering a double-digit loss. Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Spikes As Price Faces Downward Pressure In a recent post on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that significant Bitcoin amounts were sent to centralized exchanges in the past week. Data from Santiment shows that about $20,000 BTC (worth nearly $2 billion) has been moved to these exchanges in the past seven days. Related Reading: Risks To Crypto Market Ahead Of Key MSCI Ruling: Will It Spark A New Bitcoin Sell-Off? The relevant indicator in this on-chain observation is the Exchange Inflow metric, which tracks the volume of an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) that flows to centralized exchanges within a specified period. This metric is often important because one of the prominent exchanges’ service offerings is selling. Hence, an increase in the Exchange Inflow metric suggests the potential offloading of an asset by investors. The resulting increased supply of this cryptocurrency in the open market often adds downward pressure on the coin’s price, especially if there is no corresponding increase in demand. In a separate post on X, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, shared a data piece supporting the recent spike in exchange inflows. According to data highlighted by the crypto researcher, the Bitcoin exchange inflows stood at about 81,000 BTC (the highest level seen since mid-July) on Friday, November 21. Ultimately, this recent spike in exchange inflows explains the volatility experienced by the price of Bitcoin on Friday. The flagship cryptocurrency succumbed to significant bearish pressure, seeing its price fall to just above $80,000 as the weekend approached. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $86,070, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin In Profit-Taking Phase: CryptoQuant CEO CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju revealed that Bitcoin is in a profit-taking phase, as evidenced by the rising exchange inflows. The crypto founder made this assertion based on the PnL Index Signal, which measures profit and loss levels using all wallets’ cost basis. With the current reading of the PnL Index Signal, Ju proclaimed that the classic cycle theory says that BTC is entering a bear market. According to the CryptoQuant CEO, only macro liquidity can override the profit-taking cycle—just as seen in 2020. Hence, all eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December, especially with the falling expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Related Reading: XRP Price Has Surged 15% Anytime This Metric Appeared In The Past Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
According to the latest on-chain data, investors have been excessively betting on the Bitcoin price in recent weeks, leading to its overall struggles. Longs Vs Shorts Imbalance — How This Induced Price Crash In a November 22 post on social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson revealed the underlying dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent unchecked fall. In deciphering this downward trend, the crypto pundit evaluated the Estimated Long/Short Positions metric, which estimates how much of the Open Interest across exchanges is dedicated to long positions relative to short positions. Wedson reported that, across 19 exchanges, there are about 71,000 BTC positioned in longs, while a relatively smaller amount of BTC (27,900) is dedicated to shorts. While this observation does not include data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the discrepancy between longs and shorts remains unusually large. Related Reading: Kiyosaki Dumps Bitcoin At $90K After Predicting A $250K Moonshot – Here’s Why This imbalance is significant because when there are clusters of long positions at similar price levels, the market tends to lean into a more fragile state. Moderate pullbacks beneath these clusters often lead to a cascade of forced liquidations (known as a long squeeze) — an event which could in turn push prices further south. Notably, Wedson pointed out that traders must have been convinced that $100,000 was Bitcoin’s price bottom — a speculation that soon became null after its failure. Afterwards, $90,000 came into focus, with another series of liquidations following suit. At the moment, $84,000 seems to be the price majority of Bitcoin’s speculative traders target as the new price bottom. These liquidation events that took place after the $100,000 and $90,000 supports were breached provided more buy-side liquidity for the Bitcoin price to topple. At the same time, most significant short positions have been closed off, making it difficult for a more defined price recovery to take place, as there is barely any sell-side liquidity to send the Bitcoin price to the upside. For Bitcoin to recover, Wedson explained that there needs to be a significant decrease in long positioning, while short exposure goes on the rise. Watch Out For $81,250 — Analyst In another post on X, technical analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin’s 2-year moving average, which stands at approximately $81,250, is an important landmark for the future trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency. The analyst explained that historical failures of the 730-day SMA have often marked the beginnings of bear markets. Thus, in the scenario where the Bitcoin price slips past its current 2-year average price, we could be witnessing the start of a long bearish cycle As of press time, Bitcoin holds a valuation of $86,251, reflecting an over 3% price jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Only An Asteroid Can Sink MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet, CryptoQuant CEO Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView